Commentary
Northstar commuter train can't justify St. Cloud extension
by Tom StewardIf taxpayers build it, they will come. That sums up the philosophy behind many commuter and light rail projects, including the proposed extension of Northstar commuter rail from Big Lake to St. Cloud.
"Northstar Commuter Rail was envisioned to go all the way from Minneapolis to the St. Cloud area when 30 governmental units along the line started meeting more than a dozen years ago," according to Dan Erhart, chair of the Northstar Corridor Development Authority. "Eligibility requirements for federal funding caused us to break the project into two parts, but we remain committed to completing what we started."
However, a comparatively inexpensive new express bus from St. Cloud to Big Lake that essentially mimics the proposed rail extension raises questions about demand for rail service between the Twin Cities and St. Cloud.
As of the end of May, the new Northstar Link bus service was attracting less than 60 percent of its projected passenger load. That should be a red flag for planners and proponents, who've been on board for expanding Northstar service to St. Cloud from the start.
The projected number of passengers is supposed to be a key factor in deciding whether to move forward with doubling the length of the 40 mile line. To that end, officials inaugurated the Northstar Link Commuter Bus service last November "to demonstrate the demand for transit services" and "to help make their case for federal funding," as stated on their website catchthelink.com.
"As ridership builds on Northstar Link, it will help us make the case that train service should be extended to St. Cloud, as originally envisioned," said Sherburne County Commissioner Felix Schmiesing, chair of the St. Cloud Extension Committee.
Essentially, the Northstar Link buses serve as a sneak preview of demand for Northstar train service to St. Cloud. The Link's operators, St. Cloud Metro Bus, set a benchmark of 45,000 one-way rides this year, or about 3,750 one-way trips per month.
Six months into the experiment, an analysis by my organization, Freedom Foundation of Minnesota (FFM), indicates proponents of extending Northstar rail service to St. Cloud have a long way to go to make a conclusive case for extending the rail line.
A convenient new $565,000 park and ride lot was built for Link passengers just off Highway 10 in St. Cloud, paid for with state bonding money and additional taxpayer funds from Northstar. Yet most commuters appear to be passing by the amenity, judging from the dozens of empty parking spaces in the park and ride lot.
A FFM researcher also found plenty of available space on the five shuttles that sync up with the Northstar trains at the Big Lake station weekday mornings and afternoons. The researcher recorded a combined total of 68 passengers on the 15 buses monitored over two mornings and one afternoon. On average, there were five passengers and 45 empty seats per bus ride--nine empty seats for every occupied seat. On the first shuttle bus of the day, at 4:15 a.m., the researcher doubled the passenger load on both days he went along for the ride.
Official Northstar statistics back up those results. In May, about 1,700 rides were taken on Link buses, roughly half the average projected monthly ridership. Total ridership for the first six months or so of service falls well short of expectations, with about 13,000 rides, according to FFM analysis.
A common argument holds that commuters are more inclined to ride rail than buses. Yet President Obama's own top transit official recently challenged that assumption.
"Supporters of public transit must be willing to share some simple truths that folks don't want to hear," said Federal Transit Administration Administrator Peter Rogoff. "One is this -- Paint is cheap, rail systems are extremely expensive. Yes, transit riders often want to go by rail. But it turns out you can entice even die-hard rail riders onto a bus, if you call it a 'special' bus and just paint it a different color than the rest of the fleet."
Some proponents dismiss the admittedly preliminary Northstar results. "Ridership has been steady, but certainly nothing that paints a picture of overwhelming demand for commuter rail service. Skeptics might claim that's a sign the project should not be expanded. We disagree," the St. Cloud Times recently editorialized.
To their credit, transit officials have responded, eliminating the 4:15 a.m. shuttle and adding a stop in Becker and limited weekend service. Nevertheless, officials appear to be going full speed ahead in pursuit of tens of millions of dollars to extend the Northstar line under the "New Starts" federal transit program, despite underwhelming ridership results.
A truly "new start" would begin with recognizing that the cost of busing St. Cloud commuters to Northstar trains is budgeted at $466,000 this year. That's a relative bargain contrasted with the up to $150 million capital cost of bringing Northstar trains to St. Cloud, plus operating costs. Northstar Link buses could be the missing link taxpayers are looking for to protect their pocketbooks, while keeping their transit options open should demand for commuter rail pick up in future years.
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Tom Steward is investigative director for the Freedom Foundation of Minnesota, which describes itself as "an independent, nonprofit educational and research organization that develops and actively advocates the principles of individual freedom, personal responsibility, economic freedom, and limited government."
Comments (10)
The thing is, people don't want to park, get on a bus, then transfer to a train. They want to get on the train and go! I think many more people will use light rail than are using the bus.
With as many people as commute daily between St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, widespread use of public transportation is firmly in the public's interest. If ridership on the Northstar Link is so low, our task is to find out why, and then form a remedy--not to give up entirely on the project. The millions and milions of public dollars already invested in Northstar Rail demand more than the simple shrug of the shoulders and walking-away this author suggests.
Light rail is part of the long term solution to our dependence on fossil fuel, climate change, and traffic congestion. When Northstar is made to be convenient and efficient, ridership will increase. Right Now, an SCSU student who lives near the line in the North metro has to deal with buses and a very unfriendly train schedule.
I was disappointed in a recent trip from Coon Fapids to Target Field for a Sunday night game on Memorial Weekend. The one "special train" was packed with many people having to stand. The train needed to make two stops at each station to let passengers on the front and then the back of the train get off at the loading dock because the train was too long to do it in one stop. This expereince leaves a bad taste in the mouth of commuters who area getting their first taste of commuter rail in Minnesota. I won't use it to go to a Twins game again until it runs more frequently, with room to sit, and is faster.
Myself and a coworker drive to the Big Lake Station from St. Cloud every week to take the train downtown to our Minneapolis office. We tried the Link bus once, but it just is a pain to board on and off the bus, adding for additional time, etc. I know first hand other daily commuters from St. Cloud who do the same thing. I don't know if we can justify the train going to St. Cloud or not, but one thing for certain is that you can't use the Link ridership numbers as a comparison to what the train ridership numbers would be. All of us commuters would be on the train if it started in St. Cloud in a heartbeat.
There is NO GOOD REASON TO EXTEND LIGHT RAIL TO ST. CLOUD. This is simply a case of welfare for the few who want to ride trains at the HUGE EXPENSE of those who live elsewhere. Anyone who advocates extending rail (heavy on the cost) should be ashamed of themselves for being a thief.
I told you so. As published in many letters to the editor, even published in the "Northstar Corridor Rail Project Finding of Fact and Conclusion" I told you that this was a stupid waste of money and a boondoggle. We need to cancel this extra engine apparently ordered and shut down operations now, and then post pictures of all the people who ramrodded this waste of taxpayer dollars down our throats and find out how much back door money they made off it.
I don't think the author can conclude anything from the bus ridership. How many St. Cloud riders are driving their own cars to Big Lake and getting on the train there? I suspect few St. Cloud riders see much benefit to driving their own cars to a park and ride to get on a bus that then takes them to the train in Big Lake. I suspect most just stay in their own car to Big Lake. I think a ridership survey of where the current riders on the train live would be far more determinant of projected ridership for extending the line than the ridership counts on the current bus route!
I don't think the author can conclude anything from the bus ridership. How many St. Cloud riders are driving their own cars to Big Lake and getting on the train there? I suspect few St. Cloud riders see much benefit to driving their own cars to a park and ride to get on a bus that then takes them to the train in Big Lake. I suspect most just stay in their own car to Big Lake. I think a ridership survey of where the current riders on the train live would be far more determinant of projected ridership for extending the line than the ridership counts on the current bus route!
I agree with Jason's comment. I tried riding the light rail into my workplace located on the southeast edge of downtown from the MOA station. After driving from Savage on hwy 13 and taking an extended time to cross the MN river, parking, then walking the six blocks to work it extended my commute by 30 minutes from an existing 50 minutes. If the commute started by parking at a bus hub then transferring to the LR it would have extended it another 20 minutes. However, if the rail started on the other side of the MN river it would have eliminated a considerable amount of commute time based on congestion on the Cedar Ave bridge. It is possible there are many south metro residents that feel the same way. Apples to oranges when drawing conclusions on different forms of transit [i.e. bus v. train]. Also do the cost benefit numbers work? Would this allow St. Cloud to grow or even help SCSU increase their enrollment numbers or entice upper echelon professors? There are many more dynamics that need to be considered than just the short-term bus numbers although that should be considered as well. We should ask our politicians to have some long-term vision versus short-term tunnel vision.
For those of you who don't think the Northstar should be extended to St. Cloud...in my opinion...think again. We need that train service to St. Cloud..believe me....thos in St. Cloud will be crawling out of the wood work...I do think a survey of those living in St. Cloud would help with this. Let's push forward, not backward.
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