Updraft Category Archive: Snow

Breathing some life into Old Man Winter

Posted at 6:38 AM on February 20, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2011-12

Temperatures were several degrees above normal this morning and a strong south wind should be sufficient to push the mercury well into the 30s in southern Minnesota. We could reach 40 degrees in the Twin Cities this afternoon.

The conundrum for the forecast of snow amounts is when the precipitation will change to all snow and how much energy remains in the mid levels of the atmosphere tonight. We'll see precipitation increasing in coverage in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas as the morning progresses. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for western and northern Minnesota for today and tonight. The region from Moorhead through Bemidji to Ely has the best opoprtunity to see three to five inches of accumulation by Tuesday morning.

In east central Minnesota precipitation is expected to begin as a mixture of rain and sleet around dusk. Precipitation will then change to all snow later in the evening. In the Twin Cities metro area look for the possibility of a couple of inches of snow overnight.

Here's a look how the forecasters at NOAA expect liquid precipitation to dampen the landscape today and tonight.

This is welcome moisture after the dry winter we have experienced to date. The US Drought Monitor had much of the state of Minnesota in moderate drought as of last week.

Snow contiunes to fall in Wisconsin Tuesday, with a couple of inches possible from Eau Claire to Ashland. There will not be an invasion of cold air in the wake of the precipitation. Temperatures will be in the 30s in southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

Another bout of accumulating snow is possible in central Minnesota Wednesday night and Thursday.

Stay tuned this week, the weather pattern looks a little frisky. Much colder temperatures may be in the offing for the upcoming weekend.
CE

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Growing "snow drought" & Why the "weather dice" are loaded for warmth

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Snow, Winter 2011-12

14.9" snowfall season to date at MSP Airport

35.5" average winter snowfall to date in the metro

42% of average snowfall so far this winter

60.9" snowfall last winter by this date!

.25" total GFS model output precip total next 16 days
(Would be 2.5" of snow at a 10:1 ratio)

15 USA cities reporting above average snowfall so far this winter

155 USA cities reporting below average snowfall so far this winter!

"Expect the unprecedented" Wunderground's Jeff Masters on climate trends

"The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day." From Wunderground. Image credit: NASA.

Finally, winter?

Well at least it feels like winter in Minnesota and the Midwest today. Our lawns and fields may look brown, but the February-like chill in the air is real today.

A respectably chilly air mass has settled in, and the overall pattern looks more like winter the next two weeks.

Arctic front ahead:

Temps will moderate again by Thursday, but a reinforcing shot of cold air is just 36-48 hours away. The next front is arctic in origin, and will push south through Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday.

This stronger brand of cold will get you attention Friday & Saturday. Overnight lows will dip to near 0 in the metro, with temps well below zero in northern Minnesota.

Daytime highs will struggle to make the teens Friday & Saturday.

Another warm up in sight?

Looking down the road there are now signs of another warm up in about 2 weeks. The GFS is hinting at 40s again around Feb 23rd-24th. The AO, which has controlled our weather so far this winter, has recently gone negative. There are signs of a shift back to a positive AO, and that could mean milder air again in about 2 weeks.

There are also some signs we may turn wetter about then...

Stay tuned on that one.

Growing snow drought.

Our 14.9" season snowfall so far in the metro is just 42% of average so far this season. Last winter's "Domebuster" storm dumped 17.1" on the metro...more than all of our snow combined this season in a single storm!

Here are some other season to date snowfall totals around the region.

Sioux Falls 8.7"
Grand Forks 13.7"
St. Cloud 16.2"
Rochester 16.7"
Duluth 16.9"
International Falls 32.1"

The snow drought includes much of the northern USA. You can see how little snow has fallen compared to last winter through mid-January on the graph below.

The "snow drought" is good news for cash strapped city snow plow budgets after last winter's snow blitz.

With little snow in the forecast the next 2 weeks, it looks like Minnesota's snow drought will continue to grow. Right now (with plenty of snow potential ahead thorugh March) this is the 2nd lowest snowfall total on record for the Twin Cities.

If we manage to get theough the season with less than an additional 7.6" this will be one of the 10 least snowy winters on record.

We'll see about that.

Changing weather patterns: Are the "weather dice" loaded in favor of warmth?

As I posted yesterday, weather patterns in the last 2 years look so out of place form what I've seen since I started looking at daily weather maps about 25 years ago.

Apparently I am not alone in this observation.

One of the nation's top tropical weather experts and climate observers is Jeff Masters with Wundergound. In a recent interview, Jeff gives the best description of why the dice are loaded in favor of warmer weather that I have ever heard.

I don't normally quote so extensively from weather other blogs, but this is just too good not to share with MPR listeners and Updraft readers.

Here are some of Jeff's extremely lucid and insightful comments.

Christine Shearer: How do you think about the relationship between climate, climate change, and daily weather?

Jeff Masters: "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to notice the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to notice climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible. If you want a longer explanation, think of the weather as a game of dice like craps or backgammon, where Mother Nature rolls two six-sided dice to decide the day's weather. There are 36 possible combinations of the two dice, and rolls can range from two to twelve. Most often, an ordinary roll like six, seven, or eight comes up; seven is the most common, with a 6 in 36 probability. Rolls of six and eight are only slightly less common, coming up with a 5 in 36 probability. These rolls of the "weather dice" correspond to typical summer weather-high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s on a nice summer day in New York City, for instance. It is much harder to roll an extreme event-snake eyes (corresponding to a record cold day, with a high near 65), or double sixes (a record warm day, with a high near 100.) These rolls only have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring-about 3%.

Now think about what happens if we take one of the six-sided "weather dice" and paint an extra spot on each side. The old die still rolls a one through six, but the new die now rolls a two through seven. The most likely roll increases to an eight, so we've shifted to a warmer climate, getting a typical summertime high of 78 degrees instead of 76. However, the increase in 78 degree days isn't that noticeable, since we've only increased the likelihood of getting an eight on our "weather dice" from 5 in 36 to 6 in 36. But now look at what has happened to extreme events as a result of loading our "weather dice" in favor of higher rolls. Whereas before we had only a 3% chance of rolling an twelve on our "weather dice"-an extreme heat day of 100 degrees in New York City-we've now tripled these chances to almost 9%, since there are three possible combinations of the dice that total twelve or higher. Moreover, it is no longer possible to roll snake eyes, corresponding to a record cold day, but it is now possible to roll a 13-a previously unprecedented weather event. Temperatures higher than 106, New York City's previous all-time high temperature, can now occur."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Janaury continues the warm trend in USA:

A follow up on my post from yesterday on the 4th warmst Janaury in the USA. Check out the image from NOAA below and you can see how warmth focused on the Midwest in Janaury.

Again, some insight from Wunderground.

"It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F)."

3rd least-snowy January

We're not the only ones looking at brown grass this winter. More from Wunderground.

"According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall."

Stay tuned & be warm!

PH

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Old Man Winter comes out of hibernation

Posted at 6:45 AM on January 11, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2011-12

Well, it is about time we tap into some colder air north of the border. Ten days into the new year and the temperatures are running close to 15 degrees above normal. According to climate statistics we are entering the coldest two weeks of the year. Daylight has already lengthened and Old Man Winter has to play some catch-up. That begins today.

Blustery winds will follow in the wake of the advancing cold front. The leading edge of much colder air is slicing through central Minnesota this morning with a band of mixed precipitation. Temperatures are headed down at most locations today. Winds and wind chill readings will be the weather story today and tonight.

Snow lovers will have to head into Wisconsin for winter recreation later this week. A couple inches of snow are possible overnight as close as LaCrosse and Eau Claire.

NOAA's forecast for the most likely area to receive four or more inches of snow on Thursday is shown here.

If your travel plans take you east on Thursday,you may have some delays headed into Milwaukee and Chicago, where a Winter Storm Watch hs been posted.

This plunge of modified arctic air is targeted for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here's a look at the NAM temperature forecast for 6am Friday morning. Sub zero minimum readings are likely in northeast Minnesota.

The National Weather Service in Duluth shared this information about the mild January weather in their neck of the woods.

Snapshot of radar at 7am. The general movement has been southeast at 25 to 30 mph.

Snow is mixed with rain. Liquid precipitation is likely to be a tenth of an inch or less central Minnesota this morning. Only a trace of moisture has fallen in the Twin Cities so far this month.
CE

Winter chill today and Tuesday

Posted at 6:47 AM on January 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Snow, Winter 2011-12

Winds will ease slowly through the day after the state was buffetted by northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph on Sunday. A wind gust of 54 mph was observed at Sioux Falls, South Dakota, with a gust to 51 mph at St. Cloud yesterday afternoon.

Temperatures this morning were chilly but still above normal for the season. Sub zero wind chill readings were reported as brisk winds remained as high as 30 mph.

December was warmer than normal statewide and short on moisture. The Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls registered only five days below zero. Their average temperature for December was nine degrees above normal. At the Twin Cities International Airport, the coldest reading for December 2011 was 5 degrees above zero. The last day where the average temperature in the Metro was below normal was December 10th.

So far this winter season snowfall has totaled less than an inch in Sioux Falls, South Dakota and only about five inches in Fargo, North Dakota.

A tier of Minnesota counties near the Iowa border tallied normal precipitation for December. Moisture from the New Years Eve weather system was on the order of a quarter to a third of an inch around the Twin Cities metro.

Check out this link from the National Weather Service in Duluth for the snowfall graphic from New Years Eve.

It will be chilly today and cold overnight, but a moderation in temperatures is seen for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are expected to reach into the lower 40s again on Thursday and Friday.

The Climate Prediction Center issued an updated outlook for the month of January. Here's the graphic issued December 31st for temperatures.

Precipitation outlook for January 2012 from Climate Prediction Center.

Snapshot of this week's weather from the NWS in Chanhassen, MN.

Snow burst arrives, wind and cold to follow

Posted at 9:29 PM on December 31, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Radar snapshot from shortly after 9pm of the large flakes of snow being returned to the radar. Heaviest snow will move steadily through the metro between 945pm and midnight. Accumulations are expected to range from one to three inches. Snow tracks east and north through Wisconsin overnight.

Winds have increased to 30 mph in western Minnesota. Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected statewide by morning and throughout the day in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Travel safely tonight. Be cautious of other drivers.
CE

Brisk winds today; more seasonal Tuesday

Posted at 6:50 AM on December 26, 2011 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow

This GFS model image of the wind speeds at about eighteen thousand feet paints a wind max, depicted by the red shading, over the northern Rockies. This means a push of milder air across Minnesota and Wisconsin today, along with stiff winds. Colder air and a few flurries are expected as the system moves east of the region on Tuesday.

As we monitor the computer model output we look for consistency in the movement of short wave troughs in the jet stream. The timing on these, sometime minor systems, presents a challenge with accurately predicting a burst of snowfall. We know from experience, it only takes an inch of snow falling at rush hour to create a commuter nightmare.

Perhaps portions of central Minnesota may see an inch or two later this week. We remain moisture starved in much of central and southern Minnesota.

Some of you may recall December of 1983. I was reminiscing last evening about the Christmas Eve of 1983 when I traveled to Chicago. I'd never been so cold. In the Twin Cities there was a stretch from the middle of the month to the end of the month where temperatures frequently dropped to twenty degrees below zero. On December 23rd the low temperature at the International Airport was thirty below with a strong wind. On December 19th 1983 the low was thirty-five below zero (not the wind chill).

In January of 2009 I snapped this image of the temperature readings inside and outside the Eden Prairie weather lab. Remember my valley location has a cold bias (not unlike Embarrass, MN).

The International Airport registered twenty-two degrees below zero on January 16, 2009.

The fast moving west to east jet stream may have have few kinks dash across the northern tier of states this week. There might be a bout or two of snow possible on Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Looking into the second month of the meteorological winter, the Climate Prediction Center shows a strong confidence in above normal temperatures for much of the continental USA. Remember as we move into the middle two weeks of January we are encroaching on the coldest seasonal temperatues of winter, based on the thirty year normals.

Todays forecast...Brisk Winds, sunshine and temperatures well above normal. Hold on to your return receipts and your packages if you brave the shopping malls.

CE

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Searching for moisture between now and Christmas

Posted at 6:34 AM on December 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Snow, White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

While working as a forecaster at the Indianapolis NWS Office in the 1970s, the computer models were getting good enough to extend a forecast out about seven days. For the most part, they were fairly accurate through seventy-two hours. We applied a number of what was known as cook book rules in forecasting snow amounts. Many are still basic enough to use today.

One of the standard synoptic forecasting techniques was to expect the heaviest snow to accumulate about 150 miles north of the track of the center of lowest pressure. That was close to the case for last Saturday's snowfall of six inches from Clear Lake, Iowa to Cumberland, Wisconsin.

Looking out at the long range GFS, I can't find a system that has the potential to produce signifcant snow in the Upper Midwest between now and December 24th. But I'm experienced enough to doubt model output data after five days, particularly in the winter months. I know this much, daylight is continuing to grow short and we are gradually approaching the historically coldest days of the season.

Our friends at the State Climate Office have posted this graphic of the probability of a White Christmas in Minnesota. Here's a statement they included with the image; The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead. The chances decrease to the south and west and the best chance for a "brown" Christmas is in far southwest Minnesota where chances are a little better than 60%.

You can dive into more details of their research by clicking on their White Christmas post.

Cold air is still coming, but so is the moderation. Once we get through the next forty-eight hours of winter chill there will be a nice bump-up in temperatures for Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

The GFS has been consistent with readings in the lower to perhaps the middle 30s on Sunday. Here's a snapshot of expected surface temperatures and winds for noon on Sunday.

Before I turn the weather fun back to the Chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, I'll leave you with this extended temperature outlook for the next 8 to 14 days from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. I'll not include an editorial comment.

This is not a magnitude of warmth or cold but a confidence level of above or below normal temperatures. May the wind be always at your back.
CE

December chill, but be cautious of thin ice

Posted at 6:28 AM on December 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Ice, Snow

Snowfall graphic from Chanhassen NWS from Saturday and Saturday night.

Click here for a list of snowfall reports from the NWS Chanhassen Office.

A large swath of Minnesota missed out on the Saturday snowfall. Lakes will ice over and the ice will thicken at different rates depending on the micro-climate. Snow covered lakes/ponds are likely to be insulated somewhat in southeast Minnesota and ice may be slow to thicken despite the cold temperatures.

Before venturing out on regional lakes please check for ice thickness with the DNR. Here's a link on ice safety.

Once again the moisture deprived region of from Redwood Falls to Ortonville missed out on Saturday's precipitation.

The snow to water ratio varied from the Twin Cities to Winona. Rochester received 3.4 inches of snow with 0.34 inches of liquid. In Chanhassen, the snowfall was 3.2 inches with liquid precipitation 0.16 inches. That difference in moisture content identifies the challenge of predicting snow amounts based on expected liquid precipitation.

A cold week is in store for the Great Lakes region. I'll avoid using the term "warm-up", but a moderation is expected on the weekend.

In other weather news, more heavy rain is on tap from Indiana into Kentucky and Ohio. Louisville, Kentucky has accumulated nearly 64 inches of moisture in 2011, 22 inches above normal for the year.

Here's a snap shot of the radar from early this morning.

CE

Snowfall totals Saturday through Saturday night

Posted at 9:03 AM on December 4, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

One of the highest snowfalls I've seen reported this morning is seven inches out of Spring Valley in Fillmore county,

Here's a list of snowfall reports from the La Crosse NWS Office.

Snowfall reports from the Chanhassen NWS Office can be viewed here.

I tallied just over three inches from 3PM to 10PM Saturday.
CE

Several inches of snow Saturday over southeast Minnesota

Posted at 3:41 PM on December 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter 2011-12

By late Saturday evening some locations in southeast Minnesota could be enjoying such a lovely snowfall.

As I commented on Morning Edition, you really don't rush a good snowstorm. On Saturday afternoon we should be seeing snow falling at a moderate rate from Mankato through the southern extent of the Metro and on into west central Wisconsin.

Moisture was beginning to concentrate to our southwest as depicted in this water vapor satellite image from mid afternoon. Tonight will remain quiet, but the main event kicks in during the late morning hours on Saturday.

The blue coloring indicates colder cloud tops.

Winter Weather Watches/Advisories and warnings extend from southwest to northeast, from New Mexico to Wisconsin.

Click on this link to weather.gov to navigate for detailed forecasts.

Snow could accumulate four or more inches Saturday afternoon from near Fairmont through Waseca, and Rochester to Red Wing and into western Wisconsin. For the Twin Cities metro, snow will be heaviest toward Lakeville, where three inches look to be a good bet for now.

By nature the heaviest snow falls roughly 150 miles north of the track of the center of lowest pressure. This is not a particularly strong surface system,thus the winds are expected to be tolerable.

Follow the details of this enfolding weather story here at mpr.org with the support of the National Weather Service Office in Chanhassen.
CE

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Snow likely southeast Minnesota Saturday

Posted at 6:37 AM on December 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Forecast models, Snow, Winter storms

The changes in the jet stream pattern appear to be on track to push moisture into southeast Minnesota later tonight through Satuday evening. As the moisture meets up with the colder temperatures, accumulating snow is likely to occur from Austin through Dexter, Wabasha and on into Black River Falls, Wisconsin. Snowfall could be four inches or more in the region.

At this time, the continuity of the model data is holding firm in keeping the Twin Cities metro on the fringe of the snow band. We'll track the developing precipitation on radar as the system advances toward Iowa and Minnesota later tonight.

Confidence has heightened on the potential for significant snowfall and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Minnesota.

Blue shading highlights the Winter Storm Watch for Satuday. See more details from the La Crosse NWS Office.

Here is NOAA's Environmental Prediction Center's probability of snowfall of greater than four inches.

The forecast map from the NAM for 6PM Saturday places the surface low pressure in a good spot for snow over southeast MInnesota. The pressure gradient is not strong, thus the winds should remain on the order of 10 to 15 mph.

In case you missed it, the temperature dropped to four degrees below zero last evening in Ely before recovering to near ten degrees this morning.

Statewide it looks to be a quiet day with seasonal temperatures. Traveling southeast on Saturday from the Twin Cities? Keep tuned for updated weather forecasts.
CE

The feel of a winter day

Posted at 6:33 AM on December 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Daylight, Snow

An east to west band of light snow accompanied an invasion of colder air into Minnesota overnight. Snowfall from Duluth to Alexandria southward tallied up to an inch in isolated locations. Most places accumulated a half inch or less, including the measurement at the Twin Cities International Airport.

The narrow band of light snow and remaining cloud cover will continue to push through the southeast corner of Minnesota this morning. Afternoon temperatures will hold close to seasonal normals. Colder air is poised to invade the Upper Midwest on the weekend and extend into Tuesday. Indeed, with the low sun angle and shortendaylight hours you'll experience the chill of a Minnesota winter.

Meteorologists are still pondering the model data to determine the northward extent of a snow system coming out of the Colorado region on Friday. Southeast Minnesota, from Albert Lea to Rochester and Hastings looks to be the most likely area for the potential for accumulating snowfall late Friday night through Saturday.

Current thinking from the NOAA Prediction Center on the favored region to receive four inches or more of snow on Saturday.

Forecasting snow amounts is problematic due to the lack of a definitive center of low pressure. Here is the graphic of the track of the lowest pressure for the next couple of days. Note the weakness of the surface low as the system moves through Iowa.

Let's see how this plays out in the next forty-eight hours. There is still plenty of time to refine the forecast before the first flakes fly.
CE

Is lack of Canadian snow cover causing our mild fall?

Posted at 5:00 PM on October 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow

It's been a mild October to remember, and an awesome fall for those who like it mild in Minnesota. Temperatures have been running about 7 degrees above average this month in the metro and much of southern Minnesota.

The official numbers will roll in Tuesday, but it appears this October will go down as one of the top 6 or 7 warmest on record for the Twin Cities, and possibly the 4th warmest on record for Minnesota.

The big question is, why?

One easy answer with weather patterns is always "random variability." Some years are just milder than others in fall and other seasons.

But one answer may lie in the lack of Canadian snow cover ot the north this year.

Climatology would suggest that there should be snow cover all the way to the USA-Canada border by October 31st.

Snow cover "climatology" chart. Colored areas show where snow cover is usually present in late October.
(click image to enlarge!)

This year, as we open November Tuesday there is basically little or no snow cover to our north in much of central and southern Canada. You pretty much have to go al the way north to Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territories to find continuous snow cover.

Snow cover as of Sunday. Note the lack of snow cover in much of Canada!

The relative lack of snow cover means that air masses over Canada are not chilled from below by the snow, and instead the ground is warmed by the sun. This "modifies" the air masses over Canada toward milder temps before they come south into Minnesota this year. The result is a lack of cold Canadian outbreaks this October.

It's pretty hard to get cold air to come south when highs have been in the 50s (with no snow on the ground!) in places like Edmonton and Calgary, Alberta.

The jet stream is also fairly far north for October this year, and that keeps us mild as well. It may be chicken and egg, but jet stream positions seem to also be influenced by snow cover patterns. It's possible that the jet has stayed north due to the relative lack of snow cover in Canada.

We'll be watching snow cover patterns to our north in the coming weeks. They may tell us a lot about when much colder air masses will finally start moving south into Minnesota.

PH

Models: Major warm up ahead?

Posted at 9:00 AM on April 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Snow, Winter/spring 2011

My MPR News colleague Cathy Wurzer may have summed up the hopes of winter weary Minnesotans in two words this morning.

When I cautioned that I hate to even "stick my toe in the water" on a long range forecast that may include a major warm up she immediately replied...."Go ahead!"

Let's start with the extended and work backwards today.

Pattern Change: Major warm up in sight?

I hate to even go out on this weather limb, but the overnight GFS run (yes, the same unreliable model of "wanna be" snowstorms in the past few weeks) is boldly hinting that spring is truly right around the corner.

The type of major upper air pattern change that would send spring time (or even early summertime!) temperatures gushing into Minnesota may be about to unfold starting on Mother's Day weekend & beyond.

GFS surface chart pumps warm air on strong southerly flow by May 9th.

There are a couple of reasons I am giving the model output more credibility this time.

1) The upper air pattern change portrayed by the models is sweeping and large scale.

3) We're overdue for a flip in the overall upper air pattern in across North America.

So what's it all mean?

Right now it appears the pattern could begin to change on Mother's Day weekend, with the real warmth gushing into Minnesota starting on Monday May 9th. If the upper air shift verifies, temperatures may surge well into the 70s (and possibly 80?) in southern Minnesota & Wisconsin the week of May 9th.

As the warmer air (& humidity) surge north, we may see an increase in severe storms at times.

It figures for Minnesota. From snow to summer (and mosquitoes?) in a few days? They say everything in life's a trade off...pick your poison I guess.

Right now I'd put the probability of much warmer weather at about 60% for the week of May 9th. But that's a lot higher that I would have given yesterday.

Let's see how the upper air pattern evolves over the next 10 days.

In the meantime...

There are a lot of disgruntled Minnesotans these days. We've long since lost our sense of humor for cold, gray snowy days, especially in late April. I'm not hearing the "bring it on" bravado anymore. And I'm really starting to see that some are seriously affected by SAD, well into April.

All I can say is hang in there...things (the weather) really will change for the better!

Snowy start up north:

Take a look at the map below. Yep, that's snow up north.

It has been snowing in Duluth, Ely and the Iron Range cities this morning.

It's really piling up in northwest Wisconsin.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE PRELIMINARY SNOW REPORTS FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS
AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AROUND THE NORTHLAND. THESE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
----------------------- -- --------- -------
9.00 2NW MELLEN WI ASHLAND 0730 AM
6.50 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
5.50 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
4.30 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0600 AM
4.00 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0522 AM
3.80 5 S HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
3.00 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0720 AM
3.00 GLIDDEN WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
3.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
2.50 SAGINAW MN ST. LOUIS 0730 AM
2.50 10 S SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0700 AM
1.50 TOFTE MN COOK 0725 AM
1.50 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
1.50 3 NW CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0600 AM
1.30 GILE WI IRON 0700 AM
1.00 2 SE ESKO MN CARLTON 0630 AM
0.80 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0700 AM

Pretty "sick" for late April, even up north. 'Nuff said.

Play ball tonight?

I would not want to be on the Twins management team today.

This will be one of those days when no matter what decision you make, somebody's going to be unhappy.

All the major models (GFS, NAM, RUC etc.) indicate a narrow "wrap around" precip band will slide south into the eastern half of Minnesota by 7pm this evening. They also paint a temperature profile right near freezing aloft that should bring borderline rain/snow showers into the metro.

We may be only talking about a few hundredths of an inch of precip (compared to Tuesday's 1.5" deluge), but it may be enough to keep the field wet and make for some interesting visuals at TF if snowflakes are coming down as temps fall back into the upper 30s tonight.

Will conditions be "playable?" Maybe. Will it be cold, wet and miserable? Absolutely.

Interesting call. They do have those heaters in the dugout and around Target Field. Where can I buy some "hot chocolate futures" at TF?

Anyone remember those ancient Vikings games with snow coming down on the "frozen tundra?"

Severe nightmare continues:

Another day, another 55 torndoes. That's the tally yesterday from SPC.

That puts April's preliminary tornado tally at a stunning 656 twisters.

Severe weather stretched along a cold front from Texas all the way to New York last night.

Storms continue to rumble today across the southeast with more "high risk" areas today. It just won't end. Look for more tornadoes (another 30 to 50?) again today.

Here's hoping I can write some better weather news tomorrow...let's see if the notion of a big pattern change to spring is still in the cards.

Hang in there!

PH

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Weekend storm trends rainy? Floods, gravity waves, ISS

Posted at 6:18 PM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Gravity waves, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Snow, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are trending toward a "mostly rainy" scenario for the metro with our incoming Sunday storm.

In the meantime, there's a mix of weather ahead...including a nice day Saturday!

Metro & greater Minnesota forecast:

Overnight & early Friday: Mix of rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes early Friday. Low near 33.

Friday PM: Trending sunnier & milder. High near 43. Light west wind.

Saturday: Best day of the weekend! Mostly sunny & milder. High near 50.

Sunday: Rain likely, possible heavy at times. Could start as wet snow, changing to all rain metro. Heavy wet snow possible Brainerd & Duluth. High near 47 metro, upper 30s north.

Monday: Windy. Rain changes to snow. Significant snow totals possible, especially north. Temps upper 30s & lower 40s.

Sunday rain?

The latest model trends support the notion of mostly rain Sunday from the Twin Cities south. There is some indication that it may be cold enough at the onset of precip early Sunday to be all snow...and maybe produce an inch or two before enough mild air surges north ahead of the low to change precip to all rain.

GFS brings precip Sunday.

Both the GFS & Euro models have shifted milder air north, supporting a mostly rain solution for Sunday. The latest GFS run is even hinting that mild air could remain in place much of Monday, keeping precip mostly rain from the metro south until late in the event Monday night.

Big rain totals?

The GFS is hinting at ran totals over .50" and maybe 1" or higher. Keep in mind the GFS has (wildly) over forecast rain/snow totals in the past few storms.

NAM painting heavy rainfall totals Sunday.

Heavy snow north?

Early indications are the rain snow line could set up close to Brainerd or Duluth. This could mean some heavy snow in these areas if it stays all snow. There is the potential for an early April snowstorm up north. There is also the chance mild air could shift even further north.

Bottom line? It's still too early to make any high probability predictions for potential snowfall totals at this point. You'll see some scary (and probably overblown) numbers thrown out...but early spring storms have a way of changing at the last minute.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

Rivers falling for now:

Most area rivers continue to fall late this week and into the weekend. In some areas river levels will drop 2 to 3 feet from crests earlier this week. This is good news, since it will give rivers some "breathing room" before the next wave of rain can potentially raise river levels again next week.

The "Renegade" at Valleyfair in Shakopee soaks in floodwaters.

You can get all the latest AHPS river info here, but some creative folks at MPR have also put together an excellent "flood aggregator" blog called "Floods '11" here. Check out the blog for some of the latest news related flood items & photos.

Anatomy of a "gravity wave"

We're learning more about mysterious "gravity waves" which are sometimes observed with severe weather outbreaks. These powerful, rolling atmospheric waves seem to supercharge thunderstorm clusters. Details from the UW Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog:

Mid-tropospheric gravity waves upwind of intense convection:

"McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 µm water vapor channel data (above; click image to play animation) showed a well-defined warm/dry "arc" feature (denoted by the brighter yellow color enhancement) just upwind of a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that was moving eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent Gulf Coast states on 30 March 2011. The MCS eventually produced a number of reports of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across northern Florida. Also note that a subtle signature of what appeared to be gravity waves could be seen within portions of this warm/dry arc feature (especially in the southern portion, over the Gulf of Mexico).

All of the above satellite evidence suggests that the gravity waves seen on the water vapor imagery were not surface-based, but were located at a higher altitude within the middle troposphere."

ISS sightings ahead:

Skies may be cloudy Friday morning, but Saturday should provide a good opportunity to see the brightly illuminated International Space Station (ISS).

ISS sightings for Minneapolis.

You can enter your zip code to get precise sighting times here.

Mysteries of thundersnow?

I don't know if we'll see or hear any "thundersnow" with the system over the weekend, but NASA has some interesting info on a "lucky" encounter with thundersnow here.

TWC's Jim Cantore's "thundersnow moment."

"Walt Petersen and Kevin Knupp have traveled far and wide to study winter storms. They never dreamed that the most extraordinary one they'd see - featuring freakish thundersnow, a 50-mile long lightning bolt, and almost a dozen gravity waves -- would erupt in their own back yards. The storm hit Huntsville, Alabama, on the evening of January 9th.

Eyewitness Steve Coulter described the night's events: "It was as if a wizard was hurling lightning behind a huge white curtain. The flashes, muted inside thick, low hanging clouds, glowed purplish blue, like light through a prism. And then the thunder rumbled deep and low. This was one of the most beautiful things I've ever experienced.'"

PH

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Cali Drought Buster: 61 feet of Sierra snow!

Posted at 5:29 PM on March 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

And you think we've had a snowy winter in Minnesota?

AP photo shows the Soda Springs store and post office covered in snow. Here's the story from AP.

The drought is over in California.

That's the word from California Governor Jerry Brown after the latest round of winter storms boosted season snowfall totals to 61 feet in the high Sierra. The region's snowmelt feeds California's reservoir system, which is expected to approach 100% capacity this spring & summer.

California transportation officials say more than 61 feet of snow has fallen in the Sierra high country so far, second to the 1950-51 season, when a total of 65 feet fell.

The latest Sierra snow survey shows snowpack is running at 165% of normal in California's mountain ranges.

Here are some excerpts form the report from the California Department of Water Resources.

SACRAMENTO -- Department of Water Resources (DWR) hydrologists today
announced that water content in California's mountain snowpack is 165 percent of
the April 1 full season average.

The mountain snowpack provides approximately one-third of the water for
California's households, industry and farms as it melts into streams and reservoirs.

Electronic readings indicate that water content in the northern mountains is 174
percent of the April 1 seasonal average.

Electronic readings for the central Sierra show 163 percent of the April 1 average.
The number for the southern Sierra is 158 percent. The statewide number is 165
percent."

This is great news for the California water supply.

Certainly puts our little Thursday rain/snow mix (and our winter season snowfall) in perspective!

PH

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So how do they measure that snow anyway?

Posted at 8:51 AM on February 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter/spring 2011

We're at 74.9" of snowfall at MSP Airport so far this winter.

This is already the 10th snowiest winter on record.

We're now ahead of the pace for the snowiest winter on record which was 98.6" back in 1983-'84.

Last weekend's blockbuster storm was also the biggest February snowfall on record for the Twin Cities.

How do they measure snow, anyway?

Many of you have asked how snow gets measured. Here's the deal.

-Pick a hard flat area away from building or other obstructions that can alter snowfall patterns. A white deck surface works best, or you can create what's called a "Boluay Board" which is basically a 16" white plastic board. This technique was developed by Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the Minnesota State Climatology office. (We can be proud he's one of our own!)

-Use a ruler and take several measurements, and then use an average to minimize any effects of drifting.

-Clean the board off in between measurements during a storm to get a true estimate of actual snowfall without the effect of compaction.

-To measure snow depth, pick a similar area, but don't clean off the board to measure. This gives a true measure of snow depth, including compaction resulting for the weight of the snow.

The Twin Cities NWS uses 2 main products to report snowfall. One is the Local storm report (LSR). This is used to relay snowfall and severe weather reports as they arrive from NWS personnel and trained spotters. These reports are issued individually or in groups as they are received. Here's an example of an LSR for snowfall.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

0640 AM SNOW MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
02/22/2011 M13.8 INCH HENNEPIN MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

OBSERVED AT MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

Snowfall summaries are generally grouped and processed using the Public Information Statement (PIO). These summaries may contain all snowfall reports starting with the highest accumulations.

Because they contain multiple reports over irregular periods of time, PIO snowfall reports may not always be current reflection of snowfall totals at any given location if (volunteer) observers have not measured for a few hours. People should be careful to check the issuance time of PIO snowfall reports during snow events.

Here's a PIO form our recent storm.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 20TH-21ST STORM SYSTEM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
20.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0830 PM
19.60 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0825 PM
19.00 3 NW EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0515 PM
18.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0937 PM
18.00 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0519 PM
17.50 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0840 AM
16.30 1 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
15.50 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0900 AM
15.10 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0814 PM
15.10 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0820 PM
15.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0500 PM
15.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0552 PM
15.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0845 AM
14.20 1 N PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0930 PM
14.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1002 PM
14.00 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
14.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0809 PM
14.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0730 PM
13.60 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1024 PM
13.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1210 PM
13.80 MINNEAPOLIS(MSP AIRPORT) MN HENNEPIN 1240 AM
13.70 CHANHASSEN (NWS OFFICE) MN CARVER 1240 AM
13.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0610 AM
13.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1013 AM
12.90 3 WNW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
12.70 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0203 PM
12.70 1 NW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 PM
12.60 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0638 PM
12.50 CARVER MN CARVER 0700 AM
12.40 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0907 PM
12.40 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
12.30 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0845 AM
12.00 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0500 PM
12.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0333 PM
12.00 LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
12.00 3 N BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0730 AM
12.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0854 PM
11.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0710 AM
11.50 MILROY MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
11.10 BLAINE MN ANOKA 0917 PM
11.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 1000 PM
11.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0800 PM
11.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0702 AM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
11.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0800 PM
10.60 3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0346 PM
10.60 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0803 AM
10.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0616 PM
10.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0420 PM
10.50 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0600 AM
10.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
10.30 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0335 PM
10.20 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0747 PM
10.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0600 PM
10.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0700 PM
10.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1245 PM
10.00 COMFREY MN BROWN 1210 PM
10.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1210 PM
10.00 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0828 AM
10.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0626 AM
10.00 EAU CLAIRE WQOW WI EAU CLAIRE 0500 AM
10.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1100 PM
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
10.00 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 PM
10.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0530 PM
9.70 WACONIA MN CARVER 0803 AM
9.70 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
9.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0936 PM
9.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0615 PM
9.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0540 PM
9.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 1145 AM
9.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0728 AM
9.00 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0700 AM
9.00 LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
9.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0151 AM
8.90 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0915 PM
8.60 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
8.50 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0815 AM
8.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1240 AM
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
8.10 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0829 AM
8.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0200 PM
8.00 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0800 AM
8.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
8.00 2 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0731 AM
8.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
8.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0725 AM
8.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0700 AM
8.00 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0700 AM
8.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0552 AM
8.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0338 PM
7.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
7.50 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM

Note the wide range (from 9.5" Stillwater to 19.6" Bloomington) just within the metro in bold. Here's the map.

Snowfall measurement is not perfect, but it is generally an accurate reflection of what's falling if done correctly. Multiple snowfall reports from several locations are valuable and can be checked against each other to see if any totals are well out of range. Keep in mind that snowfall can vary over short distances with thundersnow and banded snowfall patterns.

Arctic rewind:

Arctic air is oozing south from Canada as we close the week. Expect temperatures to run a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average (Metro averages now 32/16) into Saturday.

Arctic air oozes south.

Expect highs in the teens north and 20s south today. Arctic high pressure will strengthen through Saturday with highs in the teens south to single digits north. Lows could dip below zero south Friday & Saturday morning, and plunge into the -20s north.

With the center of high pressure ovehead Saturday, at least winds should be light.

Temperatures should recover into the 20s by Sunday.

We may see a few snow showers Friday, and there is a chance for some light snow south Saturday. A bigger snow storm may head for Chicago Sunday into Monday, but looks to pass south of our area. Right now I don't see any blockbuster snow events on the horizon...so far.

PH

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Friday thaw? Weekend snow likely

Posted at 5:00 AM on February 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

This could be a great outdoor winter weekend.

Get set for some rapid weather changes, and finally some milder air to get out and enjoy the wintery landscape!

Milder Friday:

A milder Pacific air mass will glide into Minnesota today. Temperatures should push well into the 30s across most of Minnesota today. In fact the (welcome?) incursion of milder air has boosted temperatures into the mid 30s all the way north into central Canada as the air has spilled over the Canadian Rockies.

Milder Pacific air spilling in from the west.

A minor weather disturbance passing through Friday may bring some clouds and a few showers of snow and possible freezing rain or rain. Accumulations should be on the lighter side.

It looks like we'll enjoy milder air through the weekend, with temps in the 30s at least Friday & Saturday, and near 30 Sunday before temps nosedive again next week. Good timing for the weekend!!

Models pushing temps in the 30s this weekend?
(Click to enlarge)

Next significant snow: Saturday night & Sunday

It looks like our next decent weathermaker rolls in Saturday night. An Alberta Clipper will sail southeast toward Minnesota. Early indications are that snow could bust out in the eastern Dakotas Saturday and spread east into Duluth and the metro by Saturday evening.

It looks like most of the accumulating snow should come between about 9pm Saturday night and noon Super Bowl Sunday. Early solutions center around general 2" to 4" snowfall accumulations with the system, but more details should emerge in model runs tonight and Saturday morning.

It looks like we should prepare for another shot of snowfall Saturday night into Sunday.

Enjoy the warm up, and happy Friday!

PH

Chicago "Snowzilla" Update: Civil Emergency, Groundhog Day cancelled!

Posted at 8:07 AM on February 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

The madness continues in Chicago today, even as the storm begins to pull away and move east. Blizzard warnings remain in effect until 3pm today. Radars show a plume of lake effect snow spraying the city on the storm's back side.

Chicago lakefront battered by wind and snow.

Some snowfall reports include:

20.6" St. Charles
20.0" Beach Park
20.0" Ottawa
18.5" Elk Grove Village
18.0" Waukegan
17.3" Chicago O'Hare
15.4" Chicago Midway

The storm is now the 5th biggest snowstorm on record in Chicago...with snow still falling.

Chicago

Since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 41 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 19 years. The closest back to back 10 inch snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 21-23, 2005. These snowfall statistics are through the 2004-2005 winter season.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
17.3 inches February 1-2, 2011
16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

High winds tore off part of the roof at Wrigley Field at the storms height. Sound familiar?

You can watch the latest Chicago NWS weather briefing here.

PH

Early Morning Update: (posted 2:35 am February 2nd)

They're calling it "Snowzilla 2011" on WGN Radio in Chicago. If the storm was a rapper, they might call it "Snowtorious B-I-G."

Conditions in and around Chicago are described as "life threatening" by local emergency officials. As many as 95,000 homes are without power early Wednesday morning.

There are reports of people being stranded in their cars for up to 8 hours! "Warming buses" are circling the city to rescue stranded motorists.

Chicago Fire is using snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists on Lakeshore Drive, which has been closed as snow and high waves from Lake Michigan pound "The Drive." Photographer (and former WGN-TV colleague) Dave Weaver reports as many as a hundred cars may be abandoned on Lakeshore Drive.

Here's the story from my former station WGN-TV.

WGN-TV "Skilling Cam" shows a desolate Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago. Click the live feed below.

 
Snowfall totals over 16" (and counting) and winds gusting to 67 mph are hammering the city. Storm totals over 20" are forecast by late today.

Here are some of the latest storm reports from Chicago NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
140 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011

0135 AM SNOW OAK PARK 41.89N 87.79W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
STORM TOTAL

0132 AM SNOW CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
EVANSTON MAIN AND CHICAGO.

0115 AM SNOW 7 N LA SALLE 41.44N 89.09W
02/02/2011 E13.0 INCH LA SALLE IL EMERGENCY MNGR
E13 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WINDS E20S WITH
GUSTS E30S. 4 FEET DRIFTS. LOCATION I80 AND I39 CROSSWAY.

1200 AM HEAVY SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W
02/02/2011 M13.6 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS
13.6 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE DAY...10.6 INCHES BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
940 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /1040 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

CHICAGO LAKEFRONT 67
CHICAGO OHARE 61
WAUKEGAN HARBOR 61
AURORA 59
ROMEOVILLE 59
CHICAGO MIDWAY 58
PONTIAC 58
BURNS HARBOR 54
WEST CHICAGO 54
LASALLE/PERU 53
WAUKEGAN 53
JOLIET 52
DEKALB 52

Lake County (Chicago's northern suburbs) has issued a civil emergency message closing all roads in the county. I lived in Lake County for several years working as a meteorologist in the Chicago area at WGN-TV & Weather Command, and I do not recall this ever happening before. My former colleague Tom Skilling at WGN has his hands full with this one!

Here's the message as relayed by the Chicago NWS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
201 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

ALL RESOURCES ARE BEING USED TO REACH STRANDED MOTORISTS. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DOING SO WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK.

This is truly an epic blizzard for Chicago, and this massive "Groundhog Day Snowmageddon" storm will cover hundreds of thousands of square miles and stretch all the way to Boston by day's end.

Groundhog Day cancelled!

On a lighter note, the storm is so intense that they've cancelled some Groundhog Day festivities in Woodstock, IL north of Chicago near the Wisconsin border. "Willie The Groundhog" will stay inside today. Much of the excellent movie Groundhog Day (Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell) was filmed in Woodstock.

What does it mean when the Groundhog stays inside? I shudder to think of the consequences!

I'll have more updates on MPR News Morning Edition at 7:45am.

PH

***original post 5:30pm Tuesday***

The blizzard has hit Illinois and the Chicagoland area with full force Tuesday. Snowfall is coming down at the rate of 1-2"+ per hour.

Check out some of the storm reports coming in to the Chicagoland NWS office in Romeoville, IL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S OAK PARK 41.87N 87.79W
02/01/2011 M1.5 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FALL PAST HOUR 12 MIN. BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE EIGHTH OF A MILE.

0338 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NNE POPLAR GROVE 42.42N 88.79W
02/01/2011 E2.0 INCH BOONE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN LAST 2 HOURS. COCORAHS OBSERVER

0345 PM BLIZZARD ESE PAXTON 40.46N 88.10W
02/01/2011 FORD IL TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTREME BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 YARDS OR LESS. BEGAN AS SNOW NOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

You get the idea. This storm is hitting hard and fast, and it will only get worse through tonight and into Wednesday.

Here's the Tuesday late PM briefing from the Chicago NWS.

You can follow the storm's progress here.

The storm is huge...and will affect as many as 100 million Americans as it marches east.

Potent surface low pressure intensifying overnight.

Warnings for the storm are in effect for at least 20 states.

The storm may produce a 2,000 mile swath of snowfall with totals over 1 foot from Oklahoma to Boston!

PH

MSP: Snowiest winter in 19 years? Chicago: Epic blizzard imminent

Posted at 7:41 AM on February 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Boy did we get lucky on this one.

Monday's long duration snowfall left behind a trail of respectable snow totals...but nothing like what the next phase of the storm will deliver to Chicago tonight.

Officially 4.7" at MSP Airport recorded 4.7" of snowfall with the latest system. That puts the season to date snowfall at MSP at a healthy, ice dam dripping 60.4". Here are the relative numbers for MSP.

Season snowfall: 60.4"
Average to date: 34.1"
Departure from avg: +26.3"
January snowfall: 17" (+3.5")

If we maintain our current snowfall pace the rest of the winter we are on track for about 80" of snow. That would approach the 5th snowiest winter on record. It would also be the snowiest winter in 19 years. The last time we had 80"+ was in 1991-'92 (Halloween Mega-Storm) when we stacked up 84.1" of snowfall!

Here's the final NWS tally on Monday's snowfall:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

SNOW AMOUNTS LISTED BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS
FOR THE EVENT. PLEASE NOTE THE TIME OF THE REPORTS.

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 S MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0518 PM
9.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0516 PM
8.00 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0538 PM
8.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0445 PM
8.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0332 PM
7.00 9 SW GRANITE FALLS MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0421 PM
6.50 MINNESOTA LAKE MN FARIBAULT 1011 PM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0830 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0500 PM
6.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0253 PM
6.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0233 PM
6.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0212 PM
5.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0800 PM
4.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1200 AM
4.70 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 AM
4.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 AM
4.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1000 PM
4.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0557 PM
4.40 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1000 PM
4.20 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0742 PM
4.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1025 PM
4.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0900 PM
3.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0500 PM
3.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 1208 PM
3.50 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 1059 PM
3.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0600 PM
3.40 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0528 PM
3.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1200 AM
3.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0500 PM
3.00 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0115 PM
2.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1200 AM
2.80 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0444 PM
2.80 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0120 PM
2.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0518 PM
1.00 2 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0253 PM
0.90 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0550 PM

Arctic Comeback:

Arctic air is sliding south again in the wake of Monday's snow event. Temperatures plunged into the -20 and even to -35 near the center of the arctic air mass in North Dakota and eastern Montana overnight.

The chill will keep Minnesota in the deep freeze (and hopefully stop my ice dam covered window sills from dripping temporarily) through mid-week before temperatures moderate by late week.

Brief late-week "thaw?"

Temperatures will rebound Thursday into Friday, as milder Pacific air begins to move in from the west. 20s should return Thursday...with lower 30s possible in southern Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

Another shot of arctic air is due next week.

Bigger thaw ahead?

There are signs that a more substantial thaw could emerge for the Upper Midwest by late next week into the following weekend. Indications are the upper air pattern may shift, and the polar vortex over Hudson Bay may slide east toward Greenland temporarily.

That could allow milder winds form the Pacific Ocean to take hold over the upper Midwest. If the pattern takes firm hold...it could mean a few days of 30s and even a shot at 40 in Minnesota by the weekend of February 12th.

Stay tuned.

Chicago: Biggest blizzard in history?

A major "snow bomb" is racing toward Chicago today and tonight. A powerful storm is taking aim with what meteorologists refer to as some incredible "dynamics." The storm has the potential to become the biggest in Chicago history.

Here is some of what the Windy City can expect tonight and tomorrow according to the Chicago NWS.

-Snowfall totals over 20"?
-Snowfall rates of 2" to 4" per hour
-Thundersnow
-Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph
-5 to 10 FOOT drifts
-Waves as high as 25 FEET on Lake Michigan
-Severe lakeshore flooding

Blizzard warnings are flying for the entire Chicagoland area.

Check out some of the snowpacolyptic language from the Chicago NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
421 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /521 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

...WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND SURVIVAL TIPS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO ADVISES YOU TO BE PREPARED
FOR THE IMPENDING SEVERE WINTER STORM....COMPLETING ALL STORM
PREPARATIONS BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY THE LATEST.

WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND HIGHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF POWER
OUTAGES. OTHER PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL LOSS OF HEAT...HOME
TELEPHONE SERVICE AND A SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES.

YOU SHOULD HAVE AVAILABLE...
A FLASH LIGHT AND EXTRA BATTERIES...
A BATTERY POWER RADIO TO RECEIVE EMERGENCY INFORMATION...
EXTRA FOOD...WATER...MEDICINE AND BABY ITEMS...
FIRST AID SUPPLIES...
HEATING FUEL AND AN EMERGENCY HEATING SOURCE...
A FIRE EXTINGUISHER AND SMOKE DETECTOR.

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT. THESE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE AND
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT OVER WASH FLOODING FROM HIGH WAVES.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

This looks like an epic blizzard for Chicago. Only 3 storms in history have produced over 20" of snow in Chicago. 23" fell in January of 1967, and The "Mayor Jane Byrne" blizzard (20.3") slammed Chicago and changed the political landscape in 1979.

This storm will be Chicago's version of a Nor'easter on the shores of Lake Michigan. With potential wave heights reaching 25 feet severe lakeshore flooding is expected, and waves will likely crash over Lakeshore Drive. I covered similar events working for WGN in Chicago in the 90s where I broadcast live from near the Chess Pavilion as waves pounded "The Drive."

The storm will rage on and move east this week...and could dump 1-2 feet of snow from Chicago through Detroit and all the way east into Upstate New York and Boston!

I know I'm feeling better now about shoveling a paltry 4" from my walkway today!

PH

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Snow Tapers: Wind & cold next

Posted at 5:45 PM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Evening Update:

Bottom Line: Expect snowfall to gradually taper from west to east overnight. Most areas will pick up another 1" to 2" overnight, with some 3"+ totals in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Expect roads to be slick though tonight and probably into Tuesday morning rush. With any luck, the morning commute might be a little better Tuesday...but I still expect some icy spots as temperatures begin to fall overnight.

Wind will become an increasing factor in open areas as winds increase into the 15 to 25 mph range...especially in southwest Minnesota where winter storm warnings remain in effect.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest individual snowfall reports-Latest snowfall summary

Take care with travel into Tuesday morning!

PH

Update 4:30pm:

Radas showing a few holes in snowfall now west of metro. Snowfall continues elsewhere.

Bottom Line: (What you need to know now) Radars and surface reports showing areas of snow continue from Fargo to Duluth and from St. Cloud and the Twin Cities southward into Iowa. It will be a snowy and messy PM commute, with treacherous driving conditions in many areas.

Some impressive snowfall totals coming in now as the snow continues to pile up in southern Minnesota. Check out some of these updated totals as of 3pm:

Madelia 9.5"
Winthrop 8"
Benson 6.5"
St. James, Glencoe & Winnebago 6"

Here is the latest summary from NWS as of just after noon.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.20 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0906 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1106 AM
5.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1000 AM
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1046 AM
3.60 MINNEAPOLIS(MSP AIRPORT) MN HENNEPIN 1156 AM
3.60 CHANHASSEN (NWS) MN CARVER 1156 AM
3.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0945 AM
3.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
3.10 BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
3.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0900 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0813 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
2.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 1011 AM
2.80 5 WNW ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0909 AM

Snow map through noon...does not reflect additional totals since.

Expect slow travel times through this evening.

PH

Snow Continues: Messy Midday & PM commute ahead

Posted at 9:10 AM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Our Monday snow mess continues right on schedule.

Bottom Line: (what you need to know right now) Expect snow to continue through today and tonight, a messy PM rush, and another 2" to 4" in most areas, with as much as 3" to 6" additional in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Updated snow totals as of 9am:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.20 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
3.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
3.10 BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0813 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0804 AM
2.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.40 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0855 AM
2.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0853 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
2.20 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
2.00 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0759 AM
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
2.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0700 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 1 SW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.70 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0753 AM
1.60 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 SPRING VALLEY WI PIERCE 0800 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.00 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0700 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
1.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 0500 AM
0.90 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Heaviest snow totals should fall in southern Minnesota.

Snow so far: Here are some snow totals as of early Monday morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
744 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
STORM TOTAL.
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Latest radar trends:

Radar and surface reports showing moderate snow from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border. Visibilities under 1 mile in many locations...corresponding to snowfall rates around 1/2" per hour. There may be a reduction in snowfall intensity at times today.

Long duration: It looks like snowfall will continue through tonight and taper early Tuesday. The long duration is due to what we call "overrunning" in meteorology. That is to say a broad area of lift generated when warmer air "overruns" colder air near the surface. This "semi-stable" situation can produce large areas of general snowfall.

"Big Foot" storm:

This storm has a huge geographical footprint covering thousands of square miles. The storm will produce hefty snowfall totals from the Dakotas through Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois straight east into Michigan and through New York into New England.

Massive snow totals?

It appears Minnesota will get off lucky with this system. As much as 10" to 20" could fall in Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, and Detroit all the way east into New York.

Another messy PM rush:

It could look a lot like this again this afternoon on metro freeways.

Stay safe on the roads today!

PH

Next Snow: Monday travel mess, 3" to 6" likely

Posted at 3:45 PM on January 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

It's been 16 days since we've seen significant snowfall in much of southern Minnesota. That streak ends today.

Our next significant snowmaker is plowing into Minnesota overnight and Monday. This "long duration" snow event will bring several inches of fresh snowfall, with the heaviest totals focused on the southern third of Minnesota.

Winter storm warnings are flying for much of southwest & south central Minnesota through Monday. Winter weather advisories bracket the winter storm areas, and include the densely populated Twin Cities Metro area.

Snow will expand Sunday night, and the storm's impacts will increase Monday. It looks like Monday will be a tough travel day around the Upper Midwest, and both rush hours will be impacted by snow in the metro.

Here's the breakdown on the developing storm.

Storm Timeline: Sunday night through Tuesday morning:

Timing: Snow spreading rapidly east from the Dakotas into Minnesota Sunday PM & evening. Snow should spread into the metro between 7pm and 10pm Sunday evening.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Long duration snow event of 24 to 36 hours possible. Light intensity at onset Sunday evening. Snowfall rates increase Monday, with visibilities under 1 mile at times. This should be a fairly dry snowfall with snow:water ratios around 15:1 or so.

Best estimate of accumulations by Tuesday morning include...

Grand Rapids-Duluth-Rice Lake: 2" to 4"

I-94 Corridor: (Fargo-Alex-St. Cloud-Twin Cities-Eau Claire): 3" to 6" **Note: There is a chance metro accumulations could go higher if the storm track shifts slightly north.

Forecast models cluster tightly around a general 3" to 6" snowfall for the metro.

Marshall-Mankato-Red Wing: Potential for some 6" to 12" totals!

NAM model sets up heaviest snow band through south central MN.

NAM specifics...6.8" for MSP Airport?

Primary impact: Basically travel will be a mess in most of Minnesota Monday, including both AM & PM metro drive times. Increasing winds late Monday into Tuesday will cause blowing and drifting.

Plan accordingly, and prepare for a big wintery comeback as we close out January!

PH

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Warm Front: 30s ahead, snow "drought" continues

Posted at 9:13 AM on January 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hockey, Snow, Winter

Good news from the weather department if you're looking for a warm up.

A rare January warm front up may evolve into a "mini-thaw" later this week. That's great news if you're longing to hear the sound of dripping water, or see the pavement on your favorite street again. Maybe not such great news if you're looking for fast ice for a pond hockey tourney on Lake Minnetonka Friday.

Temperatures will climb this week, and should top out somewhere in the 30s Friday before the next cold front sails in Saturday. Here a look at the temperature ladder climb.
Temps climb this week...cold front returns Saturday.

Pond hockey anyone?

I've talked to many people who are enjoying our "real winter" in Minnesota this year. The combination of ample snowfall and consistent cold has made for great snow conditions for cross country and downhill skiing. It's also making great ice on Minnesota lakes and outdoor rinks.

Count me in among those who appreciate the consistent cold from a winter recreational standpoint. I play outdoor hockey with a great group of guys every Friday night for the "Friday Night Game" at a local outdoor ice rink. The ice has been fast and hard this year, almost ideal.

That's also great news for Minnesota's outdoor pond hockey tournaments. Last weekend's U.S. Pond Hockey Championships was a smashing success. This weekend the Pond Hockey North America Championship takes place on Excelsior Bay on Lake Minnetonka. The ice may be a bit soft Friday with temps in the 30s. But a cold front should drop temps into the 20s Saturday and make for great ice again.

If you're looking for a great hockey movie to watch this weekend that sort of captures the essence of the pond hockey spirit I recommend checking out "Mystery Alaska." It's a good movie many people have never heard of, but it has some grown up moments so it may be better for adults than kids. People in "The State of Hockey" will get and appreciate this movie.

Snow drought:

It's been rare to have a week go by this winter without much snow. In the past 12 days, the Twin Cities has received 3 inches of snowfall. That's the longest stretch with that little snowfall since November!

Here are some other metro snow stats this winter:

January snowfall so far: 12"
January average snowfall: 13.5"

With little snow in the forecast in the next week, it looks like we might end up near average snowfall in January.

Season snowfall so far: 55.4"
Annual average: 55.9"

We've already piled up close to our seasonal (30 year 1971-2000) average snowfall of 55.9" so far.

The average snowfall for the rest of the winter season (Feb-Mar-April) is 22.8" for the metro. If we get average snowfall the rest of the winter, that will bring the metro total to about 78.2". That's just shy of the 80.3" needed to bust into the top 5 snowiest winters on record for the metro.

The snowiest winter ever? 98.4" back in 1983-'84. We'd need another 44" to break that record. Anything's possible, but that's a very tall order...even in this year of weather extremes.

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

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Friday PM Rush: Snowy dusting

Posted at 3:38 PM on January 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow

Our next "micro clipper" is bringing a shot of light snow to Minnesota this Friday afternoon. It looks like another slick rush hour in the metro, Duluth, and much of Minnesota.

Expect light snow at times from now through early evening. Accumulations should be light, generally uner an inch...but it could be enough to gum up the roads with temperatures hovering near zero below in much of the state.

Remember road chemicals do not work as well when temperatures are this cold. Expect some icy road conditions and possible black ice through tonight.

Duluth dopper radar loop shows patchy snow.

Twin Cities doppler shows a more concentrated band of snow moving into the metro from the west.

PH

Halftime Forecast: Less snow in winter's 2nd half?

Posted at 8:36 AM on January 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

The " Great Snow Blitz" winter of 2010-'11 has been relentless. That may be about to change.

The upper air pattern so far this winter has brought frequent snowfalls to Minnesota. This includes 7 storms that have produced 6"+ snowfalls in southern Minnesota! It also includes the 17.1" "Domebuster" which is the 5th biggest snowstorm in Twin Cities history.

In total, the storms so far have dumped 53.9" (and counting) on the Twin Cities. That's nearly a full winter's snowfall (average) of 55.9" already by mid-January!

The Twin Cities NWS has a great list detailing winter storm events so far this season.

If you take our season snowfall total of about 54" over the past 10 weeks, we've been getting nailed by snow at the rate of about 5.4" per week.

That snowfall rate may be unsustainable.

Persistent northwest flow setting up:

Our upper air flow during the first half of winter featured a flow component off the northern Pacific Ocean. That sent a series of storms toward Minnesota, many of which were hybrid clippers "turbo charged" by additional Pacific moisture.

The dominant upper air pattern the next two weeks appears to be northwest flow. This should keep us seasonably cold with a few brief warm ups. It may also feature a few little clipper type snow systems, which should produce only light snowfalls.

Persistent northwest upper air flow may mean less snow in the next two weeks.

The source region for northwest flow in Minnesota is the arctic deserts inside the Arctic Circle. The region lacks sufficient moisture to generate the big 6"+ blockbuster snows that slammed Minnesota in the first half of winter. The result may be a few light 1" type snowfalls in the next two weeks...but I don't see any big 6"+ snowfall events looming in the forecast into the first week of February. At least not yet.

Our snowfall total of about 54" through the first half of winter would put us on track for around 100" for the winter season. That would challenge the record for the all time snowiest winter of 98.4" set in 1983-'84. Right now, I just don't see us sustaining the snowfall frequency and intensity during the second half of winter that blasted us during the first half of winter. Of course February and March can, and likely will bring a few more heavy snow events.

At around 54" of snow so far, we still need another 20" to break into the top 10 snow seasons in the metro. We need about another 27" to crack the top 5...and a whopping 45" to challenge the top spot. That's a tall order, even for Minnesota...even in this savage winter.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Monday Clipper: Snow then milder

Posted at 8:13 AM on January 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

A shot of snow Monday morning has laid down yet another fresh coating of white in most of Minnesota. Today's snowfall makes it 15 of the past 17 days with at least a trace of snow in the metro and most of "Minne-snow-ta" in January.

Here are some snow totals from the morning snow burst.

Deephaven (west metro) 1.3"
Mankato 2.5"
Two Harbors 3.1"
Tofte 3"
Finland 6.2"
International Falls 1.9"
Duluth 1"
Rochester .5"
La Crosse 1.2"

Snow will continue to focus on northeast Minnesota and Wisconsin today with additional 1" to 3" totals common. Occasional snow may fall in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities with up to another 1" in some areas.

Milder air pushes north:

Some milder air will push north into southern Minnesota today with this system, before cold air pushes south again tonight and Tuesday. Temperatures may push 30 in southern Minnesota today.

Note the huge temperature contrast from north to south...with -20s pooling in central Canada.

More details on the snow system. (original post 12:08 am)

System & track: Albert Clipper tracking through from NW to SE

Timing: Quick burst of snow early Monday morning. Snow may be "on and off" at times the rest of the day.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Light to moderate snow pulse early morning. Occasional snow (intermittent) through the day. Total accumulations 1" to 2" in metro. 3" to 6" possible in southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. 2" to 4" possible in northern Minnesota.

Primary impact: Metro: Snowy AM drive. Some snow may linger for PM drive.

Expect more traffic hassles today, and allow extra time (again) to get around. At least the MLK Holiday means there should be a little less traffic on the roads, and the kids will love playing in snow when the temps push 30 degrees by late afternoon!

How fast does snow fall?

Have you ever stopped to think how fast snow falls? It turns out snow falls about 3mph on average. That's about as fast as you walk. Snow can form at 5,000 or 10,000 feet above ground level, so a snowflake that falls from 8,000 feet may take 30 minutes to reach the ground.

That's a leisurely stroll to land on your driveway where you can shovel it.

Arctic air still on the way:

It will turn colder as the first taste of arctic air pushes south Tuesday. Lows may plunge to -10 in the metro by Wednesday morning...and -15 in the outer suburbs. It still looks like the coldest shot of air comes Thursday into Friday morning. Temperatures should plunge below zero Thursday...and could hit -15 to -20 Friday morning. Stay tuned as we tweak the magnitude off this week's arctic cold snap.

PH

Friday Night Clipper

Posted at 5:57 PM on January 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow

Latest snow totals here.

Evening Update:

Next wave of metro snow moving through early this evening, and may taper from west to east after 7-8pm. Snow will keep going in most of northern Minnesota through tonight.

MNDOT still reporting several incidents and slow traffic around the metro. Roads are slick across most all of Minnesota tonight.

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
416 Crash on Mainline I-494 WB @ 34th Ave 1 lane blocked Fri @ 17:39
427 Stall on Mainline I-494 EB @ U.S.169 NB Just cleared Fri @ 17:47
624 Stall on Mainline I-35W NB @ 26th St Right lane blocked Fri @ 17:43
704 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ Silver Lake Rd Right shoulder blocked Fri @ 17:01
641 Crash on Mainline I-35W SB @ T.H.10 EB Right lane blocked Fri @ 17:20
415 Crash on Mainline I-494 WB Right shoulder blocked Fri @ 17:44

Update 5:20pm:

A little break in precip slding through the metro...but another wedge of snow will move through later this evening.

The latest Alberta Clipper is here, and with it another snowy PM rush hour in Minnesota.

The clipper will bring snow through this evening, with highest totals in the northern half of Minnesota. A good shot of 2" to 4"+ will fall north of the metro to Duluth and surrounding areas. The hevaiest totals look to fall near the Iron Range cities to Ely and along the North Shore where some 6"+ totals could pile up by Saturday morning.

In the more densely populated Twin Cities, it looks like 1" to 2" will be the general rule by the time snow tapers off this evening. There may be a few 3" totals, especially in the north metro with this system.

Take care on roadways this evening...and leave plenty of extra time for getting around!

PH

Clipper #1 delivers: Clipper #2 Friday

Posted at 5:32 PM on January 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Our next Alberta Clipper is on track to deliver another snow shot Friday.

Our first Alberta Clipper delivered as advertised (and then some!) for much of Minnesota Thursday.

Here are some snow totals from Thursday's weather system.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
156 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

JANUARY 13TH CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOW

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
2.20 MENDOTA MN DAKOTA 0105 PM
1.80 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1112 AM
1.60 ANOKA MN ANOKA 0155 PM
1.60 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1155 AM
MEASURED AT THE MSP AIRPORT
1.40 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1153 AM
1.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1146 AM
MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
1.20 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 1112 AM
0.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1218 PM

And from Duluth NWS:

0300 PM SNOW GRANTSBURG 45.78N 92.68W
01/13/2011 M1.3 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 1 N LUTSEN 47.65N 90.71W
01/13/2011 M3.0 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STARTED 830AM. MODERATE SNOW AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

1200 PM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
01/13/2011 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT NWS OFFICE.

1215 PM SNOW 2 E FINLAND 47.41N 91.21W
01/13/2011 M1.4 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW AT OBSERVATION.

And from La Crosse NWS:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
0411 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM SNOW ST CHARLES 5N 44.04N 92.07W
01/13/2011 E0.8 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

0307 PM SNOW CALMAR 43.18N 91.87W
01/13/2011 E0.0 INCH WINNESHIEK IA PUBLIC
TRACE REPORTED

0311 PM SNOW WAUKON 8NW 43.34N 91.60W
01/13/2011 E0.3 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

0312 PM SNOW PLAINVIEW 44.16N 92.17W
01/13/2011 E1.5 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

0337 PM SNOW LA CROSSE AIRPORT (LSE) 43.87N 91.26W
01/13/2011 E1.6 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

0339 PM SNOW WABASHA 5S 44.32N 92.05W
01/13/2011 E1.3 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

0342 PM SNOW GOODVIEW 44.07N 91.71W
01/13/2011 E1.5 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

0348 PM SNOW HOUSTON 5E 43.76N 91.49W
01/13/2011 E1.8 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

0350 PM SNOW LA CROSSE NWS 43.28N 91.19W
01/13/2011 E1.7 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

0405 PM SNOW GILMANTON 8SE 44.39N 91.60W
01/13/2011 E1.8 INCH BUFFALO WI PUBLIC

Next Clipper Friday:

The next clipper system moves into Minnesota Friday. This system looks a little more potent than Thursday's snow maker....and could deliver an icy punch to Friday PM rush hour.

The system is also moving in a little faster, and snow could spread into the highly populated metro anytime after the lunch hour...and pick up in intensity during PM rush Friday. Here are the details.

Clipper #2: Friday:

Timing: Snow in eastern Dakotas by morning. Snow spreads west to east through Minnesota during AM into the metro anytime around or after lunchtime Snow intensity increases into PM rush Friday.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Quick onset & shot of more moderate snow intensity with a duration of about 6-9 hours. Metro accumulations centered on about 2". (Range 1.5" to 2.5"?) Northern Minnesota accumulations 2" to 4".

Primary impact: Metro: Bad Friday PM rush hour, with slick roads for Friday night travel. Slick roads may linger early Saturday AM. Borderline arctic temps this weekend. Metro highs in the teens Saturday. Brittle lows near -7 Sunday morning with single digit highs Sunday PM. Sub-zero wind chills.

PH

Clipper brings snow: 2010 warmest on record, again!

Posted at 8:50 AM on January 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: 2010 highlights, Snow

Thursday weather headlines:

First "micro clipper" arrives: Light snow is falling around much of Minnesota with this latest system. Expect a coating to an inch in the metro, with the potential for 1" to 2" in the northern half of Minnesota today.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Snow returns to the Weather Lab Thursday morning.(Photo by Paul Huttner. Click to enlarge)

Next Clipper Friday: Clipper #2 is on track for Friday night. This one may be a little stronger...with the potential for 1" to 2" of snow Friday night.

Increasingly arctic next week: The primary medium range forecast model (GFS) has been erratic with timing and magnitude of arctic air next week. The (often) more reliable ECMWF (European Model) is slamming a brief shot cold air into Minnesota next Wednesday. Some trends suggest -20 or colder with -30 possible in parts of the state next Wednesday morning.

I'm not convinced the models have arrived at the correct solution yet regarding the arctic outbreak, but I think it's safe to say next week will be increasingly arctic. Stay tuned.

NOAA: 2010 warmest year on record globally.

The numbers are in from NOAA's NCDC, and 2010 came in as the warmest year in the global surface temperature record.

The Arctic, Canada, western Russia and Africa were among the warmest areas in 2010.(Click to enlarge)

Here's the audio from NPR, and the report from NOAA.

"According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record.

According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.

There are some compelling aspects to the data for 2010.

Facts:

-2010 was the 34th consecutive year above the 20th century global average.

-The last cooler than average year globally was 1976.

-9 of the 10 warmest years globally have occurred since 2001.

-All 12 of the warmest years on record globally have occurred since 1997.

Commentary: These are remarkable numbers. In an "average" or "random" system you might expect that many (even half?) of the past 34 years would have featured colder than average temperatures.

Instead we've seen 34 consecutive "warm" years, and the 12 warmest years on record. This does not appear to be random. 2010 is yet another piece in the climate puzzle that suggests (proves?) that something is forcing the climate toward a warmer bias globally.

You may recall there was what turned out to be accurate evidence in late 2009 to suggest 2010 could be the warmest year on record. Check out my (much maligned) Updraft post here in October 2009 which highlighted the prospects for a warm 2010.

More interesting U.S. highlights for 2010 include:

-The most active tornado season in Minnesota history.

-Los Angeles set the all time hottest temperature on record with 113 degrees.

PH

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Clipper parade ahead: Arctic air still lurks

Posted at 4:37 PM on January 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow

Update 11:20pm:

Late evening models runs tracking Thursday & Friday's clipper systems farther north. That will likely mean less snow for the metro. Thursday system may bring a coating to 1". Friday may bring another 1" to maybe 2" at the outside.

Late Wednesday night NAM run lifts bulk of snow north of the metro.

Also, GFS tonight backs off on severity and duration of arctic air late next week into next weekend. It may not get that cold, for that long...possible a couple of sub-zero nights late next week.

Stay tuned!

PH

Get ready for a parade of Alberta Clippers.

The "tall ships" of weather are heading for Minnesota in a fast moving upper flow from the northwest.

Each system looks to bring a quick hitting shot of 1" to 2" of snowfall to Minnesota. In total the systems could lay down a total of 3" to 6" over the next week, before the mother lode of arctic air finally breaks off and heads south late next week.

Here's the rundown on what could be as many as 4 different clipper systems sailing through Minnesota over the next week.

Clipper #1: Thursday:

Timing: Snow pushes into eastern ND & NW MN in the morning. Snow spreads toward the metro by about lunchtime....pushing east into WI by around PM drive.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Light snow intensity with a duration of about 3-4 hours. Accumulations around 1".

Primary impact: Metro: Post lunchtime and early PM rush Thursday.

Clipper #2: Friday:

Timing: Snow in eastern ND & western MN by lunchtime. Metro snow spreads west to east during late PM or early evening, with bulk of the snow Friday night.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Quick onset & shot of more moderate snow intensity with a duration of about 6-7 hours. Accumulations centered on about 2". (Range 1.5" to 2.5"?)

Primary impact: Metro: Friday night travel. Slick roads linger early Saturday AM. Weekend temps look seasonably cold but not arctic. Metro highs in the teens Saturday. Lows near 0 Sunday morning with single digit highs Sunday PM.

Clippers #1 & #2 could add up to 2" to 3" or so for metro by Saturday, with heavier amounts to the north.

Clipper #3: Monday:

Timing: Crystal ball gets murkier...and timing can easily be off on systems this far out. There could be a brief shot of light snow Sunday night, but the bulk of this clipper appears to arrive late Monday.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Light snow with a duration of closer to 12 hours? Accumulations around 1-2".

Primary impact: Metro: Monday night & Tuesday AM rush.

Clipper #4: Wednesday?:

It's too far out to have credible detail, but it appears another inch of fluff is possible before the mother lode of arctic air surges south late next week.

Parade of 4 clippers in the next week? (Click to enlarge)

Arctic outbreak to follow late next week?

The well advertised and somewhat delayed arctic outbreak appears to be on track for late next week into next weekend. (January 20th-25th)

A series of increasingly bitter chunks of arctic air should break off from the Arctic Circle and be driven south by a strong northwest jet stream late next week.

The GFS is still cranking out lows in the -20 to potentially -25 range for next weekend...with daytime highs struggling to reach -5 to -8.

If the GFS verifies, there could be a period of 48 hours plus of continuous sub zero temperatures in much of Minnesota including the metro.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Epic Australia flood video & snow in 49 States

Posted at 11:19 PM on January 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Snow

This is one of the "best" flash flood videos I have ever seen.

Torrential rains trigger epic flash floods in Australia. This is the anatomy of a flash flood.

Notice how it's not pouring rain where this video is shot, but upstream the deluge is sending a wall of water toward the videographer. It doesn't take long to turn cars into "floaty toys."

Remember it only takes 6" of swiftly moving water to knock a person of their feet. And it's painfully obvious in the video that only 2 feet of swift water can send cars floating downstream.

Snow in 49 states today:

Here's the latest snowcover image from NOHRSC.

Snow cover is reported in 49 of 50 states in the USA today. Snow covers nearly 70% of the USA, and is present in every state except Florida. There's even snow in Hawaii with snow on Mauna Kea.

Automated Model Discussion:
January 11, 2011

Area Covered By Snow: 69.4%
Area Covered Last Month: 33.1%

Snow Depth
Average: 6.9 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 897.2 in
Std. Dev.: 11.4 in

Snow Water Equivalent
Average: 1.4 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 434.9 in
Std. Dev.: 3.0 in

While it might seem unusual, snow all the way into the Deep South in mid-winter is not that uncommon. You may recall last winter there was also snow in nearly every state in February.

There are also reports of snow in all 50 states in January of 1977.

Do we feel better in Minnesota now that nearly everyone is sharing our snow cover?

PH

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Snow Today: Arctic outbreak & January Thaw on the horizon?

Posted at 8:55 AM on January 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

Our latest "slow motion" version of "Snowmageddon 2010-2011" continues today.

Pesky, persistent light snow will fall in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. At one point this morning snow was falling from Roseau and Ely all the way south into Tennessee.

While snow intensity has been light in the metro and much of northern Minnesota, it has piled up more quickly in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Here are some totals from around Minnesota early Tuesday:

Fairmont 7"
Winnebago & North Mankato 6.5"
Winthrop 5.3"
Redwood Falls 5"
Willmar 4.4"
Albert Lea 4"
Owatonna 3"
Finland 2.6"
St. Cloud 2.5"
Lutsen 2"
Silver Bay 1.3"
Brainerd & Embarrass 1"

Snowfall totals around the metro early Tuesday generally range from 1" (east) to 3"(SW) so far:

Chanhassen NWS 3.3"
Chaska 3.1"
Waconia 2.8"
Deephaven 2.5"
Twin Cities Airport 2"
Hastings 1.4"
Forest Lake 1.3"

Expect spotty snow to continue today and wind down tonight. Most areas can expect up t another inch of accumulation...bringing overall metro snow totals into the 2" to 4" range by tonight.

Arctic Front this weekend: Siberian Express next week?

We catch a cooler break Wednesday from snowfall, with another shot at light snow both Thursday & Friday afternoon. Then things take a turn for the colder as we head for the weekend.

It appears our first arctic front may be a bit of a glancing blow this weekend. The front should push south Saturday, ushering in our first taste of arctic air. Lows may dip below zero this by Sunday morning with highs struggling to make the teens above zero this weekend.

Another clipper may slide through late Sunday into Monday with a few more inches of snow, and the potential for another snowy Monday morning rush hour.

It appears the "mother lode" of arctic air will come roaring south from the Yukon Territory behind the arctic front Monday evening. By Tuesday, bitterly cold air (probably winter's coldest air mass?) will invade Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

It appears next Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this winter season with sub zero highs and overnight temperatures plunging to at least the teens below zero.

GFS cranking out temps near -20 next Tuesday.

Temperatures may moderate some next Wednesday before another shot of bitter arctic air surges south later next week.

January Thaw on the horizon?

Often after bitter arctic outbreaks we see our January Thaw in Minnesota. As the bitterly cold air is (at least temporarily) drained out of Canada, upper winds often change and start blowing from the Pacific Ocean instead of the Yukon & Siberia.

The medium range forecast models are suggesting this pattern shift may occur in the January 25th- 30th time frame. It's still a long way out...but stay tuned for news of a potential warm front that could push temperatures toward 40 degrees as we head into the last days of January.

Weather fingers and toes crossed on that one!

PH

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"Snow Globe:" Some 3"+ MN totals now

Posted at 4:13 PM on January 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

A big lazy sprawling upper level low pressure center is feeding "snow globe" conditions in much of the central USA.

"Inverted trof" of low pressure on the surface map spawning widespread snowfall.

While not particularly intense, the prolonged snow shield with this system is huge. Snow is flying Monday from Tulsa to Thief River Falls.

We call these systems "inverted trofs" (NWS abbreviation for trough) on the weather map. These elongated areas of low pressure are not tightly wound up like the mega storms that can produce wind driven, hard hitting blizzards with heavy snow. But inverted trofs can be significant snow producers over time.

The slow moving system is slogging through the Midwest, and will continue to send waves of light to at times moderate snow into the Upper Midwest through Tuesday. The system is bucking drier air on the eastern side, and that may lead to spotty snowfall coverage at times from the metro north and east.

Heaviest snow from St. Peter to Glencoe Monday PM.

Some significant Minnesota totals:

There are some impressive (6"+!) snowfall totals from South Dakota, Iowa and southwest Minnesota already Monday afternoon.

Here are some snowfall totals as of Monday PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM SNOW 1 N SPENCER 43.16N 95.15W
01/10/2011 M5.5 INCH CLAY IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0110 PM SNOW SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W
01/10/2011 M12.2 INCH WOODBURY IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0120 PM SNOW MARION 43.42N 97.26W
01/10/2011 M6.5 INCH TURNER SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0125 PM SNOW GREGORY 43.23N 99.43W
01/10/2011 E5.0 INCH GREGORY SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0230 PM SNOW 3 SSE SIOUX FALLS 43.50N 96.71W
01/10/2011 M5.1 INCH MINNEHAHA SD TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTHEAST SIOUX FALLS. STORM TOTAL.

0300 PM SNOW WINDOM 43.87N 95.12W
01/10/2011 E3.3 INCH COTTONWOOD MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0300 PM SNOW SIOUX FALLS 43.54N 96.73W
01/10/2011 M5.8 INCH MINNEHAHA SD AMATEUR RADIO

0306 PM SNOW BRUNSVILLE 42.81N 96.27W
01/10/2011 M8.3 INCH PLYMOUTH IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0315 PM SNOW VERMILLION 42.78N 96.93W
01/10/2011 M8.5 INCH CLAY SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0322 PM SNOW HURON 44.36N 98.22W
01/10/2011 M8.1 INCH BEADLE SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

Closer to the metro, there are some 3"+ totals coming in from south central Minnesota.
Here's the data from Twin Cities NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
01/10/2011 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.18 INCH LIQUID

0305 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
01/10/2011 M3.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0117 PM SNOW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
01/10/2011 E3.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0114 PM SNOW WINNEBAGO 43.77N 94.17W
01/10/2011 E3.0 INCH FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Here at the Huttner Weather Lab in the west metro, I measured just under an inch (.80") of "powdered sugar" snow as of 4pm Monday.

Expect the snow to continue through Tuesday as the system slogs slowly east. I still expect snowfall totals in the greater metro area of 2" to 4" inches by Tuesday night.

Heavier snowfall of 5" to 10" is possible in south central Minnesota.

NAM 84 hour snowfall painting some 6" totals along the I-90 corridor!

Impressive snowfall totals over 1 foot are likely with this system in much of northern Iowa.

Extreme Cold Warnings:

As if we need another reason to question our sanity for living in Minnesota. NWS is rolling out a new warning. Get set for the "Extreme Cold Warning." Feels like an event in the "X-Games" for winter weather terminology.

Here's the scoop from the Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...EXPERIMENTAL USE OF EXTREME COLD WARNING TO START MONDAY...

BEGINNING MONDAY...JANUARY 10 2011...AND CONTINUING THROUGH APRIL 15
2011...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES BASED IN THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CHANHASSEN...WILL BEGIN ISSUING AN
EXPERIMENTAL EXTREME COLD WARNING.

OCCASIONALLY...TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW ZERO WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND. CURRENTLY THE ONLY WAY TO HEADLINE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
WITH THE USE OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. THE EXPERIMENTAL
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IN THE RARE SITUATIONS WHEN AIR
TEMPERATURES FALL TO DANGEROUS LEVELS BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO WIND.

EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NON PRECIPITATION WEATHER
PRODUCTS...NPW...AND WILL USE THE VALID TIME EVENT CODE EC.W FOR
DISSEMINATION.

THRESHOLDS...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW TO 34 BELOW.
WIND CHILL WARNING...WIND CHILLS 35 BELOW OR COLDER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...AIR TEMPERATURES 35 BELOW OR COLDER WITH
LITTLE IF ANY WIND.

CAVEAT...

THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES WHERE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS
ISSUED WHEN AIR TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 30 BELOW AND 34 BELOW.
TIME OF YEAR...LENGTH OF OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT WILL BE SOME OF THE
CONSIDERATIONS IN THESE CASES.

IN ALL OF THESE CASES THE ABOVE CRITERIA WOULD NEED TO BE MET OVER
A WIDESPREAD AREA...NOT AN ISOLATED LOCATION...AND FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME...AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS.

COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS...

COMMENTS SHOULD BE SUBMITTED TO THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ECW

NWS CHANHASSEN EMAIL CONTACT AT TODD.KRAUSE@NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS PRODUCT AND OTHER EXPERIMENTAL
PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT:

HTTP://PRODUCTS.WEATHER.GOV/VIEWLISTE.PHP

Thankfully I don't see us reaching the -35 criteria for any extreme cold warnings (even with our weekend arctic front) in the near future. You can let Todd Krause (one of the best!) at our local Chanhassen NWS know what you think of the criteria.

PH

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Light Snow: 2" to 4" by Tuesday night

Posted at 8:35 AM on January 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Our next weather system is a slow moving upper low that is spreading light snow into the region.

While not a "blockbuster snow event" the snow will persist through Tuesday night in most areas...and should add up to several inches in most of the southern two thirds of Minnesota.

Here are some forecast snow totals by late Tuesday night.

North Central Minnesota: (Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth) 1" to 3"

Metro: 2" to 4"

Southwest & south central: (Sioux Falls, Worthington, Pipestone, Redwood Falls, Mankato, Albert Lea) 5" to 10"

NAM model output suggests 3.3" of snow at MSP airport by Tuesday night. Note the dry powdery snow:water ratio at 17:1!

Snowmageddon 2010-2011: 3rd snowiest start on record

Our barrage of snow storms this winter season means business. It also adds up to the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record for the Twin Cities! (with similar rankings for much of southern Minnesota)

Some perspective:

-The 45.3" (and counting) metro snow total so far is the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record.

-Average snowfall to date is 24.2" (The metro is +21.1" season to date so far)

-Last winter's entire season snowfall total was 40.7"!

-Average winter snowfall for the metro is 55.9"

Weekend Arctic Outbreak:

It still looks like an arctic cold front will drop south out of Canada into Minnesota this weekend. The models differ on the magnitude of the cold wave. It may take another day or two to determine just how cold it will get by Sunday, but Minnesotans should prepare for what may possibly be the coldest shot of air so far this winter.

It is possible temps may stay below zero Sunday, and that we may (significantly?) plunge below our coldest temperature so far in the metro which has been -8.

Arctic front due this weekend. (Click for bigger image)

Stay tuned!

PH

Micro Clipper: Snow returns; Siberian Express ahead?

Posted at 8:24 AM on January 5, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold, Snow

Radars are lighting up with snow across Minnesota once again today.

The next in our series of "micro clippers" is laying out another swath of light snow, and again it will be just enough to produce some greasy skid stuff today.

Expect the "snow globe" to last into the afternoon before tapering off later today. Most of the snow should fall between rush hours in the greater Twin Cities metro...but the system could still leave behind enough snow to slow down traffic heading into the PM rush hour.

Accumulations with this mini clipper should be light, generally under an inch. The next clipper may bring another dusting late Thursday into Friday.

(click for bigger image)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

At least it will feel a bit warmer out there in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin today. Temperatures should approach 20 degrees as the clipper pulls in some slightly warmer air on the front side. It must be January if we think 20 degrees is "warmer!"

Temperatures will remain in the single digits above zero on the back side of the system in northern Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.

Siberian Express ahead?

Somebody asked me the other day when that "week of brutal sub-zero weather" is headed our way. I regret to inform you, that I think I see the chunk of bitter arctic air that may deliver the coldest air in two years to Minnesota.

The medium range forecast maps are pretty consistent the past few runs that a huge chunk of bitterly cold sub-zero arctic air will migrate south from the Arctic Circle in about 10 days. This "Siberian Express" weather pattern may deliver bitter temperatures as cold as -20 in the metro, and -40 up north.

This may be the coldest arctic outbreak in two years. The last time it was that cold was in January of 2009 when temperatures plunged to -22 in the metro, and -42 in International Falls.

January Thaw to follow?

I've been scanning the weather maps in hopes of our legendary "January Thaw" and I think I may see light at the end of the tunnel. Often times after a bitter arctic outbreak, the weather pattern will compensate by pulling in some much milder air behind the bitter cold.

Looking way out in the medium range forecast....I think there is a glimmer of hope that could happen after the cold wave passes heading into the last week of January.

It's too early to say it will happen for sure...but at least there's hope for those who would like a break from sub freezing (and sub zero) temperatures.

Hang in there!

PH

Nowcast: PM Drive snow, metro spinouts

Posted at 4:35 PM on January 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Update: 4:40pm:

Light snow continues in much of eastern Minnesota including the Twin Cities, Rochester, I-35 south to Albert Lea, I-94 east into Wisconsin. Snow will begin to taper off in St. Cloud & Mankato as the system slides east in the next few hours.

Roads are slick in spots, traffic is congested, and there are multiple crashes in the Twin Cities metro according to MNDOT.

Current Incidents
Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
812 Crash on Mainline I-94 EB @ Hemlock Ln Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 16:15
414 Crash on Mainline I-494 EB Just cleared Mon @ 15:45
702 Stall on Mainline I-694 EB @ Main St Just cleared Mon @ 16:27
600 Crash on Mainline I-35 NB @ 205th St Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 16:11

Headlights glare on icy pavement in MNDOT traffic cam at I-35 at 205th street.

Use caution this evening as the snow begins to slide east, but leaves icy spots behind.

PH

Update 3:50pm:

A few spinouts now being reported by MNDOT in the metro.

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
221 Crash on Mainline T.H.100 NB @ 36th Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:25
419 Crash on Mainline I-494 WB @ Portland Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:40
602 Crash on Mainline I-35 NB @ Co Rd 60 Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:37

Driver spunout into the median along I-35 near Co. Road 60

Original post 3:05pm:

Snow has arrived in eastern Minnesota and the metro just in time for Monday PM drive.

The snow is generally light as expected, but may be just enough to cause some icy spots on frozen pavement into this evening. Accumulations should center on an inch of arctic fluff. Plan accordingly as you travel into this evening.

A weak clipper like system is spawning the snow band as it rotates around a larger "polar vortex" centered over Hudson Bay. Expect snow to end in Minnesota this evening as the system quickly slides east into Wisconsin.

The core of the codest air lies within the polar vortex just north of Minnesota. Note the big temperatures contrast today over the Midwest, with milder 30s in Iowa...and sub zero temperatures over northern Minnesota.

PH

Estimated snowfall potential

Posted at 5:59 PM on December 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

I like this output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model that displays the snowfall from 4PM CST today to 5AM CST on Friday morning. It gives a good representation of where the heaviest snow is most likely to accumulate.

For tonight's event they paint greater than four inches in the yellow colored area, mainly along and south of the Minnesota River Valley. Notice the expansive extent of the expected accumulating snow, which goes all the way down to Kansas City.

Poor travel conditions will be encountered tonight south and west of the Twin Cities. Snow is likely to continue falling along Interstate 35 into central Iowa Friday morning.

Good news, that should be of great joy to all the people, the snow is expected to exit most of the state by mid afternoon on Christmas Eve day. Look for seasonal temperatures for Christmas and Sunday.
Glad Tidings to you.
CE

National weather map

Posted at 8:57 AM on December 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

Map valid at midnight CST tonight.

As you can see the main travel difficulties will be centered in the upper Midwest the next twenty-four to thirty-six hours.

Models are showing that another storm will plow into the Pacific Northwest for Christmas, bringing more rain to soggy Seattle.

Looking ahead, there may be a storm system developing off the east coast on Sunday. This could impact travel in New York City and Boston.

National flight status from the FAA.

Whitest Christmas in 14 years?

Posted at 8:46 AM on December 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, White Christmas

7 snowstorms in 6 weeks. That's the recipe for a white Christmas in Minnesota in the epic weather year of 2010.

Our latest storm has dumped another shot of snow on Minnesota, and a bonus coating of glaze ice to boot.

As of Tuesday morning there's a cool 14" of snow on the ground (snow depth) at Twin Cities Airport. If we maintain that number into Saturday (Christmas Day) it will be the "whitest Christmas" in 14 years. The last time we had this much snow on the ground on Christmas Day was 1996...with 18 inches.

The whitest Christmas ever in the metro was 20" in 1983.

The historical chances of a white Christmas are about 72% in the metro. It's closer to 100% near Ely and in northeast Minnesota, and about 55% around Pipestone in southwest Minnesota.

USA-Extensive snow cover:

It looks like a white Christmas for much of the nation this year. As of today 46% of the lower 48 states is covered by snow according to data from NOHRSC.

It's interesting to note that the USA snow cover map looks very similar to last year at this time in terms of overall coverage. One notable exception is the lack of snow cover in the northeast USA, including Boston and New York City.

Latest storm dumps more snow:

Monday's quick hitting storm swept through southern Minnesota with a fury, and still lingers in the north today. It did make for a pretty interesting "Snow & Ice Bowl 2010" for the Vikings last night. Playing outdoors in that was weather probably the most interesting part of the game for Vikings fans. (But that opening touchdown drive was pretty sweet! If that's the last touchdown drive we get to remember Brett Favre by in Minnesota, it works for me.)

Here are some snow totals from around the state from our most recent snowstorm.

Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
950 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE DECEMBER 20TH WINTER
STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0607 PM
7.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0345 PM
7.00 1 ESE OWATONNA MN STEELE 0500 PM
7.00 NNW ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0328 PM
6.30 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0828 PM
6.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 PM
6.10 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
6.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0901 PM
6.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0802 PM
6.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0554 PM
6.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0510 PM
6.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0435 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0300 PM
5.70 5 S FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0730 PM
5.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0645 PM
5.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0540 PM
5.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0645 PM
5.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0630 PM
5.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0620 PM
5.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0600 PM
5.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 PM
5.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0551 PM
4.60 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
MINNEAPOLIS - ST. PAUL INTL AIRPORT
4.60 1 E BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0549 PM
4.50 GOODHUE MN GOODHUE 0805 PM
4.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0716 PM
4.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0630 PM
4.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0607 PM
4.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0357 PM
4.40 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
4.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0541 PM
4.30 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0844 PM
4.30 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0745 PM
4.20 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0940 PM
4.20 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0531 PM
4.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0915 PM
4.00 SAVAGE MN SCOTT 0710 PM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0622 PM
4.00 1 SSW OAK PARK MN ANOKA 0520 PM
3.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0725 PM
3.90 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0540 PM
3.70 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0620 PM
3.70 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0450 PM
3.60 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0836 PM
3.30 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0515 PM
3.30 1 W EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0408 PM
3.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0736 PM
3.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0722 PM
3.00 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0630 PM
2.80 MAHTOMEDI MN WASHINGTON 0707 PM
2.70 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0716 PM
2.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0557 PM
2.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0643 PM
2.00 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0559 PM
1.00 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0940 PM
1.00 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0551 PM

ICE REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
0.10 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0732 PM

Duluth NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
753 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW REPORTS FROM THE STORM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE
NORTHLAND ON DEC 20 AND 21. THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT AND SOME OF THESE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN.
GREAT APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO OUR NETWORK OF SNOW SPOTTERS AND
OBSERVERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHLAND.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.60 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
8.00 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0457 AM
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COLLEGE
8.00 9 NE HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0415 AM
TOWN OF SEELEY, WI. SAWYER COUNTY.
7.50 PARK FALLS WI PRICE 0712 AM
7.50 1 W CLAM LAKE WI BAYFIELD 0614 AM
7.50 BAYFIELD WI BAYFIELD 0558 AM
7.20 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0552 AM
7.00 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0700 AM
7.00 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0614 AM
6.90 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0643 AM
6.80 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0750 AM
6.60 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0449 AM
6.50 CULVER MN ST. LOUIS 0626 AM
6.50 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0429 AM
6.10 6 NE CLOVERLAND WI DOUGLAS 0705 AM
MOUTH OF THE BRULE
6.00 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0415 AM
5.50 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0700 AM
5.50 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0640 AM
5.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0637 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0740 AM
4.70 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0549 AM
4.20 COTTON MN ST. LOUIS 0703 AM
4.20 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0532 AM
4.00 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0642 AM
SNOW DEPTH IS 16 INCHES
4.00 1 W WENTWORTH WI DOUGLAS 0640 AM
AMNICON RIVER VALLEY
4.00 12 SE SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0640 AM
4.00 GILE WI IRON 0629 AM
4.00 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS 0626 AM
3.80 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0629 AM
3.50 FREDENBERG MN ST. LOUIS 0643 AM
ISLAND LAKE
3.30 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0547 AM
3.00 WEBB LAKE WI BURNETT 0415 AM
2.80 DANBURY WI BURNETT 0534 AM
2.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0620 AM

La Crosse (Rochester) NWS:

Rochester has tied a record today for the most snow on the ground ever recorded! Here are the details.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

...ALL TIME SNOW DEPTH RECORD TIED AT ROCHESTER MN...

ON DECEMBER 21ST...THE OFFICIAL SNOW OBSERVER NEAR ROCHESTER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 29 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
THIS TIED JANUARY 25 1982 FOR THE MOST SNOW EVER ON THE GROUND.
DAILY SNOW DEPTH RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1908.

-La Crosse (& SE MN) area totals form Monday's storm:

Red River Valley NWS totals here.

Sioux Falls NWS totals here.

Next system: A big maybe for metro

The next chance for snow comes Thursday. It looks like the brunt of the storm will slide through southwest Minnesota and Iowa, with the Twin Cities on the edge of snowfall. We'll need to let the models resolve the northward extent of snow with this system, but plan on snow if you are travelling south or southwest Thursday.

Enjoy the milder temps until then!

PH

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Quick Hitter: First snow, then ice

Posted at 9:00 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Fast & furious. That's the nature of our latest "quick hitting" snowstorm.

Now the next phase...ice. Expect slick roads and sidewalks to linger Tuesday morning as freezing drizzle falls overnight!

As quickly as the snow moved in Monday, it has exited much of Minnesota.

Snow lingers in northern Minnesota, and now snow and freezing drizzle (snizzle!) are the next feature of our storm for the metro and much of southern Minnesota. As the icy coating builds on TCF Bank field turf, the Vikings-Bears game is beginning to look more like a hockey game at the X with each passing minute.

Large multi-state snow band shifting east overnight.

Pending any additional snow overnight (the radar may flare up with a few more snow showers), overall storm snowfall totals range from around 3" at the low end near Long Prairie & St. Cloud...to 7.5" at Madelia & Ellendale on the high end.

Metro totals are still rolling in, but so far range from 4" in Plymouth, to as high as 6.1" at Prior Lake.

The Huttner weather lab in Deephaven and the MSP Airport both report 4.5" of fresh snowfall.

Here are the snowfall totals as of early Monday evening.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
616 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 20...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0345 PM
7.00 1 ESE OWATONNA MN STEELE 0500 PM
7.00 NNW ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0328 PM
6.10 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
6.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0554 PM
6.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0510 PM
6.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0435 PM
6.00 2 NNE MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0410 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0300 PM
5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0455 PM
5.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0540 PM
5.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 PM
5.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0551 PM
5.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0242 PM
4.60 1 E BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0549 PM
4.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0607 PM
4.50 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
TAKEN AT MINNEAPOLIS - ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
4.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0357 PM
4.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1231 PM
4.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0541 PM
4.20 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0531 PM
3.90 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0540 PM
3.80 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0500 PM
3.70 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0450 PM
3.30 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0515 PM
3.30 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0500 PM
3.30 1 W EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0408 PM
3.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0415 PM
3.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0404 PM
2.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0557 PM
2.50 ST JOSEPH MN STEARNS 0420 PM
2.30 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0335 PM
2.10 HAM LAKE MN ANOKA 0510 PM
2.00 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0559 PM
1.90 WAITE PARK MN STEARNS 0354 PM
1.00 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0551 PM
1.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0330 PM
0.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0430 PM

Conditions should improve for Tuesday AM rush hour. Then, the forecast models are still at odds about potential snow for Thursday. One favored model steers the system south into Iowa and southern Minnesota. Another throws moisture north into the Twin Cities, with a potential for accumulation. It's too early to tell which solution is right.

Stay safe overnight on still slick roadways!

PH

Comment on this post

Metro Nowcast: Snow tapers 6-8pm

Posted at 5:27 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

A quick micro-update on snow trends.

Radar and satellite trends and surface reports indicate the back edge of the snow is just west of the metro...moving quickly east. Snow is beginning to taper off in the west metro, and will diminish from west to east between now (west) and 8pm. (east metro)

Latest trends indicate snowfall should taper off before kickoff time at TCF Bank Stadium for the Vikings MNF game!

In the mean time heavy snow has made for a horrible, near gridlock rush hour in the metro.

Chaos at I-394 & Plymouth Road.

Thankfully the end of the heavy snow is in sight.

PH

Storm Rages: Storm peak next 3-6 hours

Posted at 4:15 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

4:15pm Update:

The storm is nearing peak intensity now from the Dakotas all the way into Wisconsin.

Let's take a tour of conditions across the storm.

Eastern Dakotas:

Winter storm warnings continue for eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley into Minnesota. Latest snowfall totals here.

I-94 from Alexandria through the Twin Cities:

The storm continues to rage along I-94. Heavy snow "banding" is evident on doppler radar just south and into the metro, indicating snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour in some areas.

Expect peak snowfall intensities of 1" per hour between now and 8pm.

Here are some updated snowfall totals from Twin Cities NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM SNOW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
12/20/2010 M4.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1239 PM SNOW 2 SW PRIOR LAKE 44.71N 93.46W
12/20/2010 M0.6 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1242 PM SNOW RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
12/20/2010 M0.4 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN PAST HOUR

1249 PM SNOW MADELIA 44.05N 94.42W
12/20/2010 M6.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0147 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/20/2010 E4.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM SNOW RICE 45.75N 94.23W
12/20/2010 M1.2 INCH BENTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0158 PM SNOW LAKEVILLE 44.68N 93.24W
12/20/2010 E1.5 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0159 PM SNOW RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0201 PM SNOW 1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON 45.06N 93.22W
12/20/2010 M1.3 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0214 PM SNOW NEW MARKET 44.57N 93.35W
12/20/2010 M2.0 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0240 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
12/20/2010 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0241 PM SNOW 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS 44.91N 93.29W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0242 PM SNOW SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W
12/20/2010 M5.0 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM SNOW JANESVILLE 44.12N 93.71W
12/20/2010 M6.0 INCH WASECA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0319 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
12/20/2010 M1.8 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM SNOW NNW ST CLAIR 44.08N 93.86W
12/20/2010 M7.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 830 AM MIXED WITH SLEET DURING PAST HOUR

0330 PM SNOW NORTH MANKATO 44.18N 94.03W
12/20/2010 M6.0 INCH NICOLLET MN BROADCAST MEDIA

0330 PM SNOW RUSH CITY 45.68N 92.97W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH CHISAGO MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0345 PM SNOW MADELIA 44.05N 94.42W
12/20/2010 M7.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0346 PM SNOW 2 SW DELANO 45.02N 93.81W
12/20/2010 M3.0 INCH WRIGHT MN NWS EMPLOYEE

IN PAST 6 HOURS

0354 PM SNOW WAITE PARK 45.55N 94.22W
12/20/2010 M1.9 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0357 PM SNOW WINTHROP 44.54N 94.36W
12/20/2010 M4.5 INCH SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW 2 W PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.47W
12/20/2010 M3.3 INCH SCOTT MN NWS EMPLOYEE

Mankato-Rochester-La Crosse:

Heavy snow is also moving through south central and southeast Minnesota. Expect peak snowfall, with visibilities down to 1/4 mile at times during the next 6 hours.

Here are the latest snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. (Rochester-La Crosse area)

Stay safe as the snow continues to pile up this evening!

PH

3pm Update:

"A snowplow pulls up to the site on the Bath Road on Monday during a snowstorm where an Albert Lea school bus slid off the shoulder and into the ditch. A short bus came and took the children back to town. A Freeborn County sheriff's deputy waits by the bus."
Courtesy Tim Engstrom/Albert Lea Tribune

Snow coverage and intensity are cranking up as expected. So far in the metro between 1" and 2" has fallen. I measured 2" at the Deephaven Weather Lab at 3pm.

Twin Cities doppler shrouded in snow. Notice the brighter bands of heavier snow moving in.

Southwest Minnesota has already piled up between 3" and 6"+ in some areas.

Visibilities are between 3/4 mile and 1/2 mile in the metro...which corresponds to snowfall rates around .5" to .75" per hour.

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES LGT SNOW 22 18 85 E17 29.89F VSB 3/4 WCI 8
ST PAUL SNOW N/A N/A N/A SE10 29.93F VSB 1/2
CRYSTAL SNOW 23 19 85 E9 29.89F VSB 1/2 WCI 13
BLAINE LGT SNOW 21 18 86 E9 29.91S VSB 3/4 WCI 11
EDEN PRAIRIE SNOW 22 19 89 E12 29.87F VSB 1/2 WCI 10
LAKEVILLE LGT SNOW 19 19 100 E12 29.88S VSB 3/4 WCI 7
SOUTH ST PAUL LGT SNOW 22 19 87 E9 29.91F VSB 3/4 WCI 12
LAKE ELMO LGT SNOW 21 18 86 E9 29.93S VSB 1 WCI 11

Slow snowy travel again. This is Highway 394 at Penn Ave just west of downtown Minneapolis.

MNDOT Update: Numerous incidents now in the metro. Details here.

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
422 Stall on Mainline I-494 EB @ Penn Ave 1 lane blocked Mon @ 15:10
315 Crash on Mainline U.S.169 SB @ Valley Park Dr Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:50
715 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ T.H.61 Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:08
673 Crash on Mainline T.H.10 EB E of Co Rd J Just cleared Mon @ 14:47
213 Crash on Mainline T.H.100 NB @ 50th St EB Just cleared Mon @ 14:34
6 Crash on Exit I-35E NB @ T.H.36 WB Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:00
327 Stall on Exit U.S.169 NB @ Minnetonka Blvd Just cleared Mon @ 13:59
280 Crash on Mainline T.H.280 SB @ Territorial Rd Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:29
631 Crash on Mainline I-35W SB Left lane blocked Mon @ 14:21
109 Crash on Mainline T.H.77 SB @ T.H.62 EB Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 13:43
723 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ Stillwater Blvd Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 13:37
322 Crash on Exit U.S.169 NB @ I-494 WB Left lane partially blocked Mon @ 14:46
281 Crash on Mainline T.H.280 SB @ Energy Park Dr Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:30

Updated: Mon Dec 20 15:17

Here are some totals from NWS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1249 PM
4.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1231 PM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0147 PM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1246 PM
UPDATED TOTAL
2.50 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1150 AM
SINCE 830 AM.
1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0158 PM
1.30 1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON MN RAMSEY 0201 PM
1.20 RICE MN BENTON 0156 PM
1.00 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0159 PM
1.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1047 AM
OVER PAST 2.5 HOURS
0.60 2 SW PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1239 PM
0.50 SLEEPY EYE MN BROWN 0823 AM
0.40 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 1242 PM
IN PAST HOUR

Redwood Falls and Olivia have heavy snow with visibilities at 1/4 mile! This reflects snowfall accumuation rates of an inch or more per hour in southwest MN!

REDWOOD FALLS HVY SNOW 26 24 92 E12G18 29.79F VSB 1/4 WCI 16
OLIVIA SNOW 27 23 86 E12G17 29.82R VSB 1/4 WCI 16

PH

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Storm Update: Snow intensity increasing

Posted at 10:35 AM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Our 7th winter storm in 6 weeks is here.

Snow has arrived in the metro, and will pick up in intensity as we head through the afternoon. Bands of heavier snowfall intensity are increasing and will move through the metro through the PM hours! Expect road conditions to rapidly deteriorate this afternoon!

This is our first weekday storm in a while, and the PM school bus trip home and PM rush hour will be affected this time.

Snow picks up on MNDOT traffic cam at Highway 7 & Williston Rd. in Minnetonka late Monday morning.

Here is the latest on the growing storm.

-Snowfall Coverage Expanding:

A long wedge of snowfall runs from eastern Montana through the Dakotas into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The leading edge of snowfall continues to expand rapidly northeast.

Twin low pressure centers pushing snow east from the northern Rockies Monday.

Timing:

Snowfall will continue this afternoon into this evening, before tapering off late tonight. In the metro, snowfall may taper off, or become mixed with freezing drizzle after midnight. There could be an icy coating at the storm's tail end overnight.

Intensity:

Look for peak snowfall intensity between about 2pm and 8pm tonight. Snowfall rates could approach 1" per hour at times during this window late PM into this evening. We should have a good 2" to 4" down by PM rush in the metro.

This of course is peak PM rush hour, and I expect very difficult travel with moderate to heavy snowfall rates (visibilities 3/4 to 1/2 mile!) during the PM rush tonight.

NAM model suggests 6.5" snowfall (blue) with snowfall rates near 1" per hour late today. Also notice wetter snowfall and freezing drizzle potential (red).

Totals:

The latest morning model runs confirm the notion of cranking out about .60" liquid...and an overall snow:water ratio of around 10:1. That's a good 6" of snow for much of the metro. I still think an overall range of 4" to 8" looks good for the metro...with some heavier 8"+ totals north of I-94 from Alexandria to St. Cloud and Hinckley.

Latest NAM model run lays out broad 6"+ totals.

Morning NAM run...7.8" for metro?

Storm Character:

This "warm advection" snow event will feature a heavier wetter snow at times than in our past few snowstorms. It should be good snowball & snowman snow! Enough warm air is mixing in that ice is a concern late tonight.

Also the warmer nature of the storm means there is no bitterly cold shot of arctic air behind the system. Temps may push 30 degrees on Tuesday.

And yes, there is another shot of plowable snow possible Thursday...but first things first.

Bottom Line:

The storm is here! Prepare for snow to increase in intensity through the PM into tonight!

Here are some links to track the storm today.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest NWS warning info
-Latest snowfall totals
-MNDOT Traffic Cams

PH

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Storm Update: Snow expanding

Posted at 8:23 AM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

It's on.

Our 7th winter storm in 6 weeks is spreading an expanding shield of snow and some patchy freezing drizzle north and east through Minnesota.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are flying today for Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

Here are the latest details on our next shot of wintery weather.

Timing:

Snow continues to expand north and east as the system pushes moisture into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow is already falling in southwest Minnesota and pushing northeast. Snowfall should increase in the metro as we move through midday into early PM.

Snowfall should be heaviest during the afternoon and evening hours, tapering off gradually around midnight in many areas. PM rush should be snow covered and slippery in much of Minnesota including the metro.

Snowfall Totals: Overnight and early morning model runs still cluster snowfall around 5" to 6" for much of the metro, with the band of heaviest snow setting up just north of the I-94 corridor from Alex-St. Cloud-Eau Claire. 4" to 8" looks like a good range for metro snowfall, with a few 8"+ totals to the north, and lesser amounts (of 3" to 6") in southern Minnesota.

Modles like a 5" to 7" snowfall range for metro.

PM Rush & Vikings Game:

The peak snowfall intensity should come between 2pm and 9pm over all, with snowfall rates approaching 1" per hour between 4pm and 8pm. This will mean PM rush hour and getting to the Vikings (and Wild!) games tonight will be a challenge. I expect to see some good snowy visuals at kickoff at "The Bank"...with snow falling and several inches on the ground by kickoff time.

Bottom Line:

Expect another shot of snow and increasing wintery weather again today and tonight. Prepare accordingly!

PH

Next Storm Monday: Vikings "Snow Bowl" 2010?

Posted at 3:05 PM on December 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Get ready for the 7th snowstorm to hit Minnesota in the past 6 weeks.

And this one could make an historic outdoor Vikings Monday Night Football game even more interesting!

"The Bank" is cleared, ready for football...and more snow! Check out the amazing time lapse video of the massive snow removal operation here.

Yet another fully charged low pressure system is spinning toward Minnesota. It looks like it will hit hard and fast Monday. Winter Storm Warnings have now been issued for much of the region, including the Twin Cities Metro!

With another set of model runs yet to come, here is my best shot at Monday's storm.

The System:

Another hybrid North Pacific/Alberta Clipper type storm hurtling at Minnesota from the west. This one is coming straight east from Montana/Wyoming, and will track through the Upper Midwest Monday.

Storm Timing:

I expect snow to break out in southwest Minnesota by Monday morning, and spread northeast during the day. It looks like snow could spread into the Twin Cities Metro by about lunchtime...somewhere between 10am & 2pm from west to east.

-Snow should continue through Monday evening, tapering by late evening. There may be a transition to freezing rain in the metro late Monday night, which may add an icy coating on top of fresh snow!

-Peak snowfall rates should come between 2pm and 9pm Monday. Snowfall rates may approach 1" per hour at times.

This should make for a difficult PM rush hour, and messy travel to and from the Vikings and Wild games...both in town Monday night. My advice, stay downtown or leave extra early if you are planning to attend the games!

Storm Character:

This will be what we call in weather geekdom a "warm advection snowfall." That means southerly winds will pull up moist warm air over colder air near the surface. This will be a wetter snow than our past few systems, with snow:water ratios likely to fall to about 10:1 or even 8:1 during the storm.

NAM hints at wetter snow, and potential freezing drizzle for metro.

It looks like the system may yank enough warm air northward to change some of the precip over to freezing rain late in the event Monday night. That could mean an icy coating at the storms tail end.

This will be a "warmer" storm. Temperatures should actually climb through the 20s during the event, and may top out around 30 degrees by Monday night. There is no arctic surge on the storm's back side, meaning there is not much in the way of cold arctic air or wind behind the system. Some good news anyway!

Snowfall Totals:

Okay here we go with the "inches" part of the forecast.

-It appears the heaviest snow band will set up along and north of the I-94 corridor...from Alex-St. Cloud-northern Metro-Eau Claire on the south. On the north end the heavy snow band could reach Brainerd-Duluth. Snowfall totals could reach 6" to 10" in the heavy snow band...this includes Alex, St. Cloud, the far north metro, Brainerd, Mill Lacs, Hinckley and near Duluth.

-North and south of the heaviest snow band there should be another area with impressive snowfall totals of 4" to 8" by early Tuesday morning. This includes Willmar to the Twin Cities & Rochester on the south, and Bemidji to Grand Rapids and Hibbing on the north. By midnight Monday night/Tuesday there could be 4" to 8" totals across the metro, with the heaviest totals in the north metro...followed by an icy coating late Monday night.

NAM snowfall painting 4" to 8" totals.

Bottom Line & Impacts:

Prepare for a messy PM rush hour Monday evening, and very slick roadways. With temperatures rising into the 20s, MNDOT chemicals should work to keep some main roads wet if the plows can keep up. Snow should be falling before and during he Vikings game on MNF, and that could make for some slick playing conditions underfoot, and some interesting visuals on MNF!

Let's see what tonight's model runs bring, but be ready for snow (and maybe some ice) Monday!

PH

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Later sunsets, total eclipse & 4th snowiest start on record

Posted at 4:45 PM on December 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Snow

How about some good news for daylight starved and snow pummeled Minnesotans?

The sun set a minute later today than it did yestrday!

The sunset today in the Twin Cities is 4:33pm. Thursday it set at 4:32pm. By Christmas Day, the sun will set in the Twin Cities at 4:37pm. You'll begin noticing a little more daylight on clear evenings in the next few days.

But wait Mr. Huttner....how can that be? The winter solstice occurs next week on the 21st right?

Right.

But because the earth's orbit is an ellipse and not a circle, the earliest sunset time actually occurs a few days before the winter solstice. The trade off is, the latest sunrise time occurs a few days after the winter solstice...so sunrises don't start getting earlier until around January 5th

Me? I'm a sunset guy...so I'll celebrate the later sunsets now. It's my ray of hope and light that gets me though the dark, cold and snowy winter season. Just knowing and sensing the (even slightly perceptible) longer daylight in the evening is a big boost for my spirits.

Enjoy the added daylight on your evening commute, walk or other outdoor adventure the next two weeks, and beyond!

4th snowiest start to winter on record:

A whopping 34" of fresh snow has piled up at MSP Airport since the snow began to fly this fall/winter. That's the 4th snowiest start to winter (though December 15th) and the snowiest start in 19 years since the infamous Halloween Mega Storm Year of 1991.

Here's the narrative from Twin Cities NWS.

"The start to this cool season has been snowy across the area, especially compared to recent years. With 34.0 inches at MSP Airport through the first half of December, it is the snowiest start of winter for the Twin Cities since 1991. Some portions of the Twin Cities, particularly the west and south have had even more snow. Here at the NWS Office in Chanhassen, 40.9 inches have been observed so far. The storm tracks of systems since the first appreciable snow on the 13th have favored in particular central and southern Minnesota. At the same time, St. Cloud has seen 11.7 inches. Eau Claire broke a record on December 11th, recording 22.0 inches of snow in one calendar day. Eau Claire is now up to an impressive 28.8 inches of snow for the season."

Signs of a thaw next week?

The latest models are hinting at the potential for snow next Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned...it's too early to make a call yet.

It also looks like a southerly flow may break the cold snap. Temperatures may push 30s by the middle of next week...and that could be a welcome change.

Full lunar eclpise Monday night (Tuesday morning)

A rare treat coincides with the winter solstice this year. A total lunar eclpise will be visible in Minnesota (pending clear skies) Between 12:33 am & 4:01 am. Totality will peak at 2:17am CST.

The last time a full lunar eclipse coincided with the winter solstice was in AD 1554. NASA forecasts that at 1:33 a.m. ET on Tuesday, "Earth's shadow will appear as a dark red bite at the edge of the lunar disk."

Enjoy a quiet weekend for a change!

PH

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Snowy Recap: Plus a welcome respite

Posted at 6:12 PM on December 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Our latest Minnesnowta clipper left a swath of heavy snow west of the metro...and a few forecasters scratching our collective heads.

Check out the huge range in snow totals form this week's clipper. Snowfall totals ranged form 0 to 10.1" in central Minnesota, and from 0" to 6.5" just in the metro!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM DECEMBER 15-16...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.10 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0343 PM
9.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0427 PM
8.60 MORRISTOWN MN RICE 0402 PM
8.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0531 PM
8.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0343 PM
8.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0135 PM
8.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 1205 PM
8.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0959 AM
7.80 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0822 AM
7.70 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0800 AM
7.10 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1139 AM
7.00 COLOGNE MN CARVER 1227 PM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1113 AM
6.50 9 SW STARBUCK MN POPE 0211 PM
6.50 WACONIA MN CARVER 1101 AM
6.20 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0453 PM
6.00 3 NNE EAGLE LAKE MN BLUE EARTH 1132 AM
6.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0926 AM
6.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0700 AM
5.70 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
5.60 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0800 AM
5.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1104 AM
5.50 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1025 AM
5.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.40 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0800 AM
5.00 WANAMINGO MN GOODHUE 0358 PM
5.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0353 PM
5.00 2 S NORTHFIELD MN RICE 1251 PM
5.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0930 AM
5.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0800 AM
5.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0746 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0733 AM
5.00 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
5.00 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0610 AM
4.80 W CARVER MN CARVER 1200 PM
4.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.70 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0237 PM
4.50 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
4.20 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0830 AM
4.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
4.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
4.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0724 AM
4.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
4.00 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0640 AM
4.00 KANDIYOHI MN KANDIYOHI 0346 AM
3.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0705 AM
3.50 4 W COMFREY MN BROWN 1130 AM
3.50 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1020 AM
3.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
3.40 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0340 PM
3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1009 AM
2.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 PM
MEASURED AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2.50 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0658 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0200 PM
MEASURED AT CWSU
2.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 1101 AM
2.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0755 AM
2.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0320 AM
1.50 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0415 PM
1.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
0.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0602 AM
TRACE MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM
OBSERVED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AIRPORT

Here's the map. Notice the sharp cutoff on the storms eastern edge... right over the metro.

A chance to dig out:

It looks like we may actually string together 3 mostly snow free days. That's good news for city crews moving tons of snow off the streets...and anyone who needs to dig out a little bit. Other than a few passing flurries, it looks like the next shot at accumulating snow comes along Monday.

If the potential Monday system stays on track, we could be looking at a few inches of snow for the Vikings game at "The Bank" on Monday Night Football. It seems that Purple just can't buy a break this season. For those of us who were around long enough to remember old time football out at "The Met" this could bring back some great memories from "The Frozen Tundra."

Monday night's potential "Snow Bowl 2010" would be the perfect exclamation point on the epic weather year of 2010 in Minnesota.

Enjoy the quiet break...and stay tuned!

PH

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Snow update: Heavy SW, Metro grazed

Posted at 8:56 AM on December 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

They say "all weather is local."

Never has that been truer than with out latest Minnesnowta snow system.

A narrow band of heavy snow has laid down some impressive 4" to 7+" snowfall totals just south & west of the Twin Cities. In the metro a few inches has fallen in the far SW, it's been a dusting for most areas, with little or no snowfall in the northeast.

Let's check the totals as of Thursday morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE DECEMBER 15-16 STORM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.60 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0658 AM
6.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0610 AM
5.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0746 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0733 AM
5.00 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0610 AM
5.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0610 AM
4.50 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
4.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0637 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0727 AM
4.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0724 AM
WATER EQUIVALENT 0.28 INCHES.
4.00 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0640 AM
4.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0530 AM
4.00 KANDIYOHI MN KANDIYOHI 0346 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0346 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0346 AM
3.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0346 AM
3.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 0320 AM
3.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0320 AM
3.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0320 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0320 AM
2.50 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0729 AM
0.1 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
2.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0722 AM
COCORAHS OBSERVER.
2.50 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0658 AM
2.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0320 AM
1.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0621 AM
NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
0.50 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0602 AM
0.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0602 AM

If you live in Willmar, Glencoe, Mankato, Owatonna, Waconia or Prior Lake you're saying..."pretty good forecast" today. If you live in the central metro, you know why weather forecasters can turn grey quickly, and how finicky life can be on the "edge of a clipper."

We've picked up just .5" in Deephaven and Bloomington overnight, with a respectable 1.3" (and counting) in Chanhassen in the southwest metro, and a plowable 2.5" in Prior Lake!

Update: Waconia is about 5 miles southwest of the weather lab. Talk about a big snowfall range in just a short disatance!

0805 AM SNOW WACONIA M5.5 INCH CARVER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Dry air eats away:

Take a look at this replay from the Twin Cities doppler loop this morning. Notice the heavy snow bands (bright yellow) in Carver & Scott Counties in the SW metro...and how the radar returns just disappear as you move east into the heart of the Twin Cities.

That's dry arctic air "eating away" at the eastern edge of the clipper, and literally evaporating snowfall as it falls into drier air near the surface. The difference between modeate to heavy snow and flurries? About 4 miles.

Looking at the radar loop, you can see why the forecast modles had such a tough time pinpointing metro snowfall totals with this system.

Talk about a forecaster's nightmare, but great news for most commuters this morning in the metro. One man's trash is another man's treasure as they say. I'll take the hit on my metro forecast any day if it means good news and safer travel for drivers.

Expect snowfall to continue in the same areas before tapering off late morning into the afternoon. We could see some 4" to 8"+ snowfall totals...including Carver, Scott and Dakota counties before the system pulls out later today.

Be prepared for a very wintery travel scenario if you are heading (even just a few miles) south and west of the metro today.

PH

Snow grazes metro: Heavier west & south

Posted at 11:00 PM on December 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

The latest clipper to sail through Minnesota is delivering a glancing blow to the Twin Cities, and a harder punch to areas just south & west of the metro.

Surface map shows Clipper's narrow band of snow.

Persistent snow fell much of Wednesday PM & night west of the metro. Late Wednesday evening, a few totals are trickling in to the weather lab.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1041 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW GLENWOOD 45.65N 95.38W
12/15/2010 M1.0 INCH POPE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0609 PM SNOW 2 N WILLMAR 45.15N 95.05W
12/15/2010 M1.0 INCH KANDIYOHI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0817 PM SNOW ELLENDALE 43.87N 93.30W
12/15/2010 M1.5 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
12/15/2010 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/15/2010 M2.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA

Thursday AM rush:

It looks like there will be some slick travel with falling snow favoring the western & southern metro. With temperatures in the teens, it won't take much snow for roads to slick up Thursday morning.

Winter weather advisories continue into Thursday morning. Plan for some extra travel time, especially in the southern & western metro.

Travel south & west of the Twin Cities will be slick, with higher snowfall accumulations in the 3" to 6" range. One consistent feature with this latest weather system is the predicted heavy snow axis, which still runs along an Alex-Willmar-Hutchinson-St. Peter-Northfield-Owatonna-Albert Lea line. Winter storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

This has been an interesting (and confounding) storm to forecast for the metro...while the rest of the forecast for Minnesota is holding up well. The sharp cutoff from snow on the system's eastern edge literally means a 30 mile difference between no snow, and some 2-4 inch totals. That dividing line is right through the metro with this system.

NAM model finally seems to have a handle on heavier snow band, and sharp cutoff over metro.

Drier arctic air near the surface is literally eating away as moisture attempts to advance eastward.

Surface dewpoint analysis shows much drier arctic air to the east, bucking advancing moisture.

Bottom line for this system...expect slick roads for AM rush in the southern & western metro...with snow accumulations of a coating or less (east metro) to 2" (southwest metro).

It looks like we may sneak in a few quiet days before we look for the next snowmaker which could move in on Monday.

Domebuster snowfall compressing on the ground.

Check out the photo of the small holiday light trees outside the weather lab. Notice the tree on the right? It was completely covered with snow after last weekend's storm. Now, a crown of snow remains stuck to the star on top, while the rest of the snowpack has compressed a good 2 to 3 inches.

This is a good example how a fresh fluffy powdery snow can compress after a few days. The crystals break down over time and compress. Who knew?

PH

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Snow stays west: Lighter metro totals?

Posted at 3:20 PM on December 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Update 3:20 pm:

I said this was a tough storm to forecast...boy was that on the mark.

In a stunning (but not totally unexpected) turnaround, both the GFS and NAM forecast models have dropped predicted snowfall totals for the Twin Cities drastically.

The NAM has been the most erratic model...going from 7" to under an inch to 5.7" then back to ZERO in the span of 48 hours. At one point this morning, our two "most trusted" models...both of which handled last weekend's Domebuster extremely well...we're forecasting zero snow... and 8.7"!

Bad models....very bad models!

It looks like our "on again-off again" metro snow event is mostly "off again" for much of the central & east metro. The latest model runs and radar trends confirm that the bulk of the snow may linger just west of the Twin Cities for much of the event, with lighter totals for the Twin Cities.

I still expect 3" to 6" totals along a Alex-Willmar-Hutchinson-Northfield line....with lighter amounts in the west metro. It appears we may see just a dusting in the far east metro now. At this point a snow forecast of a coating to two inches seems like the most likely outcome...with lighter totals (just a dusting?) in the northeast metro.

Latest NAM model shifts snow band west of Twin Cities.

GFS lays big snow range across metro with lighter amounts NE metro.

We'll need to watch this one to see how far east the snow moves as it battles some drier air over the metro, but it looks like my original forecast of accumulating snow in the southwest metro and a rapid drop off in snow totals by the time you get to the NE metro may work after all.

PH

8:30am post:

Here we go again.

It's like somebody put a big weather target over Minnesota this year, and all weather systems are aiming right for us.

Our next wave of snow is crawling eastward through Minnesota today, as another shot of "Minnesota Powder" moves in.

The latest model runs are pushing the steadier snow just east...with the core right into the western Twin Cities metro. This forecast is actually tougher than the big weekend Domebuster beacuse of the sharp cutoff in snowfall on the east side of the system. There is a higher than average bust potential for this forecast!

Update: As if on cue...the new NAM model run in this morning has removed all snow from the forecast and now shows .00" precip! Arrrrghhh.

This is me tearing my hair out with this system. So do I believe the NAM (little or no snowfall?) or the GFS (8.7" snowfall?) or take the "split the difference" forecast. Stay tuned...the bust may be ready as the modles are back to discord with this weather system!@#*!^# So, you wanna be a weather forecaster huh?

Unless the system is effectively stalled to the west...it looks like another relatively long duration (18-24 hours) light snow event could add up to 3" to 6" for the Twin Cities (especially west metro) by Thursday afternoon.

It looks like the heaviest snow axis will run along and south of the I-94 corridor from Fargo through St. Cloud & Willmar into the western metro and south to Mankato & Owatonna & Waseca.

The overnight NAM & GFS runs are cranking out 5.7" and 8.7" of snow at MSP Airport by Thursday PM. I'll lean a little conservative with an overall 3" to 6" range for the metro...with the lesser amounts on the NE metro and the higher totals in the SW metro.

Check out some of the model data, which supports raising snowfall for the metro a bit.

NAM & GFS cranking out between 5.7" & 8.7" totals for the metro.

NAM paints 3" to 6" totals in the western half of the metro, with a sharp cutoff in the northeast metro.

GFS bring the "mother lode" of 3' to 6" right into the Twin Cities, and suggest some 8" totals just NW.

Bottom line: Expect more snow to spread east into the metro late afternoon, and expand tonight. Thursday AM rush hour looks to be the slickest, with slippery roads in the metro.

Get ready for another shot of snow!

PH

10pm Tuesday post:

****
"What we've got here is a failure to communicate." The classic line from the 1967 movie "Cool Hand Luke" perfectly described the forecast models Tuesday.

The forecast models we're not playing nice...but it appears we are closer to consensus. It's going to snow again in the Twin Cities, and it may be enough to shovel and plow in much of the metro.

With the evening model runs in tonight, here is my best shot at the forecast.

The System: Another hybrid Pacific/Clipper tracking toward Minnesota from the Pacific Northwest. This is the same storm that produced a rare possibly EF2 tornado in Aumsville,Oregon Tuesday.

Here's the video from KGW TV in Portland.

Timing: It looks like snow will increase in west central Minnesota Thursday morning (Alexandria-Willmar-Mankato) and midday, then spread slowly east.

-Snow could begin to move into the Twin Cities metro from west to east between about 4pm and 7pm Wednesday evening.

-Snow should continue through Wednesday night until about noon or 3pm Thursday. (Total duration of about 18-24 hours?) It looks like the worst road conditions could be during Thursday AM rush hour.

Snowfall character & intensity: This snowfall could be a littler wetter at the onset of the storm (12:1 snow:water ratio)...then transition to another dry powdery snow (20:1) overnight into Thursday.

NAM model with snow:water ratio, liquid total of .33" and forecast snowfall of 5.7" for MSP Airport highlighted.
(Click on images to enlarge)

-Snowfall intensity should be considerably lighter than last weekend's "snow attack", when rates exceed 1" to 2" per hour. This should be a lighter snow, with rates between .2" and .5" per hour for most of the event.

Snowfall totals: This will be another efficient snowfall producer.

Heaviest snow band:

It appears the heaviest snow band will run along a NW to SE line...along and south of I-94 from Fargo-Alex-Willmar-Hutchinson-Northfield-Owatonna-Albert Lea.
It looks like 3" to 6"+ with some isolated 8" totals could fall in this area.

NAM model lays out heavy snow band just southwest of the metro by Thursday.

Twin Cities Metro:

It looks like there will be a big snowfall gradient from NE to SW across the metro (forecaster's nightmare), with a sharp cutoff with little or no snow just northeast of the Twin Cities. The southwest metro may fall within the eastern edge heavy snow band.

Northeast Metro: (Lino Lakes, Forest Lake, Stillwater) Coating to 2"

Southwest Metro: (Lake Minnetonka-Waconia-Shakopee) 3" to 6"

** Any shift in the track of the system to the east or west will increase/reduce snowfall amounts accordingly**

Latest NAM & GFS models crank out 5.7" & 4.2" totals for MSP Airport by noon Thursday.

It looks like we're going to get ready to shovel again by Thursday. (Where will I put any more snow??)

Stay tuned as we tweak the system based on the morning model runs.

Weatherpacolypse 2010 continues!

Southwest mountain forests under attack as warming increases:

I spent 9 years working in Arizona. While I was there I watched (and reported on) over a million acres of high altitude forest go up in smoke in the past decade of drought and heat.

Researchers at the UA Tree Ring Lab (Yes, there is such a place and I have been there! It's actually under the UA football stadium!) presented papers this week that forecast the disappearance of large chunks of high altitude forest in the southwest due to climate change.

"More than half of the Southwest's high-altitude forests could be gone by mid-century, under a worst-case scenario for continuing drought outlined by other UA researchers in a series of papers published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The eight papers sound warnings about the effects of drought on the region's ultimate sustainability."

Many of Arizona's mountain forests get just enough rain, snow and coolness to survive in a marginal climate zone. Any shift toward hotter and drier climate has a huge impact, and can be a "tipping point" for the mountain biome.

The sad story here from azstarnet reporter Tom Beal.

PH

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Edge of snow: Models at odds

Posted at 5:50 PM on December 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Update 6pm:

Models still in a dog fight about how much, if any, snow for the metro tomorrow night into Thursday. I'll be back after the evening model run...to see if anything gets resolved.

Stay tuned.

PH

One look outside and you know it's not your average Minnesota winter so far. This is your daddy's Minnesota winter.

Clear skies and deep snow cover reveal surface features on NASA's MODIS Terra Satellite Monday.
(Click for bigger image)

Why should we be surprised in the Minnesota "weatherpacolypse" that is 2010? First 104 tornadoes then "Dome rupturing" snows in December. Looks like we're getting payback for that record "snowless" march...and you know what they say about "payback."

Here are some of the records with last weekend's storm.

-5th snowiest Metro December on record already with 24.2" total.
(All time December record is 33.2"...and yes we have a shot!)

So far this season we've already piled up 34" at MSP Airport. That's 19.5" above average so far this season...and just 6" shy of last season's 40.7" total.

Top Fourteen Largest Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1
3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11
6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 12 (Armistice Day)
7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
13. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30
14. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23

Storm survey: Toss in your two cents:

Want to tell them what you really think about forecasts leading up to last weekend's storm? Take the post storm survey from St. Cloud State University here.

Whitest Christmas in 14 years?

Snow depth at MSP Airport is an impressive 17" today. With the potential for additional snowfall and little melting between now and Christmas, it looks like that number may hold or even climb. The last time we had this much snow on the ground on Christmas Day was 1996, with 18". To get to 20" you have to go back 27 years...to 1983 the deepest snow on record.

From the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

"In 109 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72% of the time. From 1899 to 2008 there have been 31 years with either a "zero" or a "trace." The last time the Twin Cities has seen a brown Christmas was 2006. The deepest snow cover on December 25th was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches."

It looks very much like this could be the "whitest" Christmas in the metro and much of Minnesota in at least 14 years. This could be the second whitest Christmas on record if we get to 19" of snowfall....and 20+" (The "whitest" Christmas on record?) is not out of the question!

On the edge of more snow?

The next chapter of "Clippermania 2010" is due in tomorrow night and Thursday. This one looks a lot tamer than last weekend's blow out, but could pile up a few inches west of the metro by Thursday PM. It appears the heaviest snow zone with this system (3" to 6+"?) could set up west of the metro...along a Fargo-Alex-Willmar-Redwood Falls-Mankato-Rochester swath.

The metro looks to be on the eastern edge of this system initially Wednesday. The lastest indications are this system could stay mostly in west central and southwest Minnesota...and mostly miss the metro to the west.

NAM 84 hour snowfall hints at snow band west of the metro...just edging the western Twin Cities Thursday.

How much? We are still 36 hours out from snowfall, so I'd like to see complete model runs run this morning and tonight. Let's see what today's model runs bring before I put a hard number on the system, but do expect more snowfall west of the metro...and maybe in the west metro.

Stay tuned...the track could change.

Bitter cold locks in:

Temperatures tumbled to -6 in the metro this morning, after a respectable -8 (coldest so far this season) Monday AM.

Bitter cold has locked in over northern Minnesota with this arctic outbreak. Check out the "fun with negative numbers" in the northland this morning.

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
:ASOS SITES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 4 / -16 / T / T/ 10
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 1 / -27 / 0.00/ 0/ 12
BRD : BRAINERD : 8 / -11 / 0.00/ /
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 14 / -3 / 0.00/ /
HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 6 / -23 / 0.00/ /
:ASOS SITES NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
ASX : ASHLAND : 14 / -4 / T / /
HYR : HAYWARD : 12 / -21 / 0.00/ /
EMBM5: EMBARRASS...........: DH0600/ -1 / -33 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 11
LEIM5: ORR 3E..............: DH0600/ -1 / -33 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 12

Stay warm, and stay tuned as we tweak the forecast for snowfall heading into tomorrow.

PH

Comment on this post

Dome Buster: 5th biggest snowstorm for Metro

Posted at 2:47 PM on December 12, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Congratulations, you've just witnessed (and survived) a top 5 record Twin Cities snowstorm.

An official, Dome collapsing, storm total of 17.1" piled up at Twin Cities Airport. That's the 5th highest storm total snowfall on record in the Twin Cities dating all the way back to 1891.

Top Fourteen Largest Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1
3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11
6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 12 (Armistice Day)
7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
13. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30
14. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23

In some places the sky actually is falling! Check out the epic video of the Metrodome roof collapse.

It is also the biggest snowstorm in the Twin Cities in 19 years....since the Halloween Mega Storm dumped an all time record 28.4" on the Twin Cities.

Osceola, WI takes the golden snow shovel award with an amazing 23"! Here are the final storm totals.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
214 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS DECEMBER 10-11...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
23.00 5 SE OSCEOLA WI POLK 0900 AM
21.50 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0942 PM
21.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0654 PM
21.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0335 AM
20.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0802 AM
20.00 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0337 AM
19.20 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0100 PM
2624 ARTHUR STREET
18.50 4 NNE MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0945 PM
STORM TOTAL.
18.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0802 AM
18.00 EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 PM
17.50 3 NW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
17.40 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0906 PM
17.20 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0855 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
17.20 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 1000 PM
STORM TOTAL.
17.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0124 AM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. STORM TOTAL SNOW
17.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1100 AM
OTTER CREEK COURT
17.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0620 PM
STORM TOTAL.
16.50 SAVAGE MN SCOTT 1133 PM
16.30 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0826 PM
16.00 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0100 PM
16.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 1031 PM
15.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0124 AM
MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. STORM TOTAL SNOW.
15.20 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1036 PM
15.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0620 PM
STORM TOTAL
14.70 WACONIA MN CARVER 0748 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
14.50 3 SSW WHITE BEAR LAKE MN RAMSEY 1030 PM
STORM TOTAL.
14.20 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0920 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
13.70 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0935 AM
STORM TOTAL
13.50 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0700 PM
STORM TOTAL.
13.50 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0655 PM
13.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 1200 PM
13.00 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0935 AM
STORM TOTAL
12.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1100 AM
STORM TOTAL
12.50 1 ENE CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0630 PM
STORM TOTAL.
12.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0909 PM
11.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0145 AM
STORM TOTAL.
11.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 1130 AM
STORM TOTAL
10.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1228 PM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. DRIFTS 5 FEET HIGH.
10.00 WELCOME MN MARTIN 1228 PM
DEEP DRIFTS
10.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0730 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
9.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 1228 PM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0715 PM
STORM TOTAL.
7.00 4 S ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0635 PM
6.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0820 PM

Here's the NWS map.

This weekend's storm is also the largest December snowfall on record in the Twin Cities, according the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

"The former record was the December 27-28, 1982 storm. This was a heavy wet snow that fell mostly at night. The nighttime sky took on a pink and orange hue with heavy falling snow and occasional flashes of lightning. The Twin Cities Airport was closed for 19 hours due to this storm, the first time the Minneapolis St. Paul Airport was closed because of snow since March, 1965. The total snowfall was 16.5 inches."

I remember cross country skiing down Minnetonka Blvd. at the height of that storm with wildly colored lightning flashing overhead in thundersnow.

Enjoy the cold but quiet weather in the wake of the storm!

PH

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Epic Snow: Shakopee 21.5" Wind/cold Sunday

Posted at 10:30 PM on December 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Highest storm total: Shakopee 21.5"
Lowest metro total: Waconia & Champlin at 9.9"

It appears metro snowfall totals ranged from 9.9" to 21.5".

The 16.5" total at MSP Airport is officially the biggest snowfall since the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991, and the 8th largest snowfall on record in the Twin Cities. It could move higher on the list, pending a final snow total at MSP from NWS.

Top Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985

Latest snowfall totals below:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
906 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

**NOTE: DUE STRONG WINDS THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING
SNOW...AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE.
A GREAT DEAL OF ESTIMATING WENT INTO THESE SNOWFALL REPORTS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
21.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0654 PM
20.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0247 PM
18.10 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0812 PM
18.00 EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 PM
18.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0610 PM
18.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0346 PM
17.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0506 PM
17.40 NEW RICHMOND WI ST. CROIX 0516 PM
17.40 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0906 PM
17.20 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0520 PM
17.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0620 PM
17.00 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0334 PM
16.50 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
16.30 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0826 PM
16.10 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0607 PM
15.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0554 PM
15.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 PM
MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN CHANHASSEN.
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
15.20 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0429 PM
15.20 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0230 PM
15.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0620 PM
14.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0504 PM
14.00 WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0452 PM
14.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0410 PM
14.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0316 PM
14.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0309 PM
13.50 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0700 PM
13.50 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0655 PM
13.50 3 WNW LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0415 PM
13.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0334 PM
12.90 1 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0214 PM
12.80 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0520 PM
12.50 1 ENE CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0630 PM
12.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0424 PM
12.00 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0418 PM
12.00 NEW BRIGHTON MN RAMSEY 0243 PM
12.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0909 PM
11.70 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 0249 PM
11.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0350 PM
11.50 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0119 PM
11.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0218 PM
10.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0345 PM
9.90 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0430 PM
9.90 WACONIA MN CARVER 0300 PM
9.50 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0158 PM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1225 PM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0715 PM
8.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 0332 PM
7.00 4 S ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0635 PM
6.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0820 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0415 PM
3.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0310 PM

Evening Update:

Evening radar trends show snowfall winding down from northwest to southeast tonight. The storm is beginning to pull away, but not before dumping 15" to 20" in most of the metro and western Wisconsin.

Storm makes history:

This will go down as one of the top snowfall producers in Twin Cities' history.

The 16.5" total at MSP Airport is officially the biggest snowfall since the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991.

The "epicenter" for the heaviest snowfall is in the heart of the metro... from Minneapolis through St. Paul...the east metro into western Wisconsin.

Here is the latest snowfall summary from NWS as the falling snow winds down in the metro tonight. You can check individual totals as they come in here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
20.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0247 PM
18.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0346 PM
18.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0341 PM
18.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0630 PM
18.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0610 PM
17.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0506 PM
17.40 NEW RICHMOND WI ST. CROIX 0516 PM
17.20 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0520 PM
17.00 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0334 PM
16.50 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. STORM TOTAL
SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT
16.10 1 W BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0607 PM
15.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0554 PM
15.20 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0440 PM
15.20 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0429 PM
15.20 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0230 PM
15.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 PM
OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATION
15.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0620 PM
14.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0504 PM
14.00 WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0452 PM
14.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0410 PM
14.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0316 PM
14.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0309 PM
13.50 3 WNW LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0415 PM
13.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0334 PM
12.90 1 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0214 PM
12.80 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0520 PM
12.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0424 PM
12.00 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0418 PM
12.00 NEW BRIGHTON MN RAMSEY 0243 PM
11.70 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 0249 PM
11.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0350 PM
11.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0218 PM
10.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0345 PM
9.90 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0430 PM
9.90 WACONIA MN CARVER 0300 PM
7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0430 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0415 PM

Top Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985

Overall, the storm produced between 10" and 20" of snow in and around the greater Twin Cities metro, with lower amounts to the north and still counting in southeast Minnesota overnight.

Blizzard Update:

Blizzard conditions will continue in much of southwest and south central MN overnight. Blizzard warnings continue in effect into Sunday morning from the southern metro south to the Iowa border.

Many (most) roads are closed form the metro south and west tonight. MNDOT is recommending no travel...it would be foolish to attempt travel tonight anywhere south of the (and even in) metro. With falling temps, reduced visibilities in blowing snow, and wind chills well below zero, conditions will be rapidly life threatening to anyone caught outside overnight!

Winds gusts as high as 64 mph have ripped across the open country in southern Minnesota today. MNDOT sensors recorded a wind gust of 64 at Rushmore along I-90 today. Full blown blizzard criteria have been reached and exceeded at Worthington and Marshall for much of the day, with winds gusting as high as 56 mph in Worthington and visibilities near 0 in whiteout conditions at times!

Remember the criteria for blizzard conditions from AMS.

blizzard--A severe weather condition characterized by high winds and reduced visibilities due to falling or blowing snow.
The U.S. National Weather Service specifies a wind of 30 knots (35 miles per hour) or greater, sufficient snow in the air to reduce visibility to less than 400 m (0.25 miles).

With sustained winds of 45 mph and gusts to 64 with near 0 visibilities for hours...this was an "Uber Blizzard" for much of southwest Minnesota.

Snow drifts of 3 feet are reported at Mankato and 3-4 feet near Rice Lake, WI. With the wind overnight, I expect snow drifts of 3 to 5+ feet in open areas by Sunday morning.

Anatomy of a Superblizzard:

This storm was a rapidly deepening low pressure system. Notice the classic "comma shaped" circulation and precip pattern wrapped around the northwest side of the surface low as it moves out of eastern Iowa. Also notice the tight pressure gradient over southern Minnesota...generating near hurricane force gusts and sustained blizzard conditions.

This is (hopefully) a once in more than a decade storm for Minnesota!

PH

Update 4:30pm:

MNDOT reports a wind gust of 64 mph in Rushmore along I-90 in southern Minnesota! That's a full blown severe thunderstorm level gust, and just 10 mph shy of hurricane force.

Latest snowfall totals include:

Oakdale 20"
Shakopee 18"
Menomonie 18"
Maplewood 17"
MSP Airport 14.6"
Hastings 14"
Richfield 12"
Hutchinson 10.5"

Latest radar trends show back edge of snowfall from near St. Cloud to Willmar...collapsing slowly SE. Still moderate to heavy snow in the metro...and a ferocious snow burst from Red Wing to Northfield and Zumbrota...heading for Rochester.

Expect 3-5 more hours of snow in metro..and snow after midnight in SE MN. Followed by increasing wind with blowing and drifting snow!

PH

Update 3:15pm:

Breaking news: An incredible 20" snowfall total is reported by a trained spotter in Oakdale east of St. Paul! Woodbury reoprts 15.2"! MSP Airport 14.6"!

0247 PM SNOW OAKDALE E20.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTERSTORM TOTAL SO FAR...ESTIMATED 9 INCHES IN THE PAST 4 HOURS.

Twin Cities Airport is likey to reach at least 16.1" snowfall total. If that happens, this will be the biggest snowfall event since the infamous Halloween Mega Storm in 1991!

Top Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985

Storm near peak intensity now with heavy snow in southern half of Minnesota... and blizzard conditions in southwest Minnesota.

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES HVY SNOW 21 18 88 N24G33 29.82R VSB 1/8 WCI 4

Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MONTEVIDEO LGT SNOW 10 9 92 N30G37 30.03R WCI -12
GRANITE FALLS SNOW 11 8 85 NW28G36 30.02R VSB 1/2 WCI -10
CANBY SNOW 6 3 88 NW28G44 30.09R VSB 1/4 WCI -17
MARSHALL CLOUDY 7 1 78 N35G45 29.98R VSB<1/4 WCI -18
REDWOOD FALLS FOG 13 10 88 N20G36 29.92R VSB 1/4 WCI -5
OLIVIA CLOUDY 16 12 86 N23G32 29.96R WCI -2
PIPESTONE N/A 7 3 85 N28G43 29.90R WCI -16
WINDOM HVY SNOW 10 10 100 N32G39 29.78R VSB<1/4 WCI -12
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A N45G54 29.80R VSB<1/4
JACKSON HVY SNOW 14 14 100 N16G29 29.73R VSB<1/4 WCI -2
TRACY HVY SNOW 8 5 86 N28G40 29.92R VSB<1/4 WCI -14
SLAYTON HVY SNOW 7 4 89 N29G39 29.86R VSB<1/4 WCI -16

Latest snowfall totals include:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM SNOW 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS M14.9 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL... SO FAR

0214 PM SNOW 1 SW ST PAUL M12.9 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER
HIGHLAND PARK AREA... STORM TOTAL... SO FAR

From the latest Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion: QUITE SIMPLY...ITS A TRAVEL NIGHTMARE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MANY AIRPORTS REPORTING 1/4SM +SN....THE AIRPORT HAS RECORDED CLOSE TO A FOOT OF
SNOW AS OF 12 PM CST. ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES IS LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW
DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL LINGER
WELL PAST 06Z TONIGHT.

I expect another 3" to 5" in most areas of the Twin Cities before snow begins to taper off this evening. That will bring storm totals into the 14" to 20" range in most areas of the metro.

Blizzard conditions will continue through tonight in southwest & south central Minnesota.

If Twin Cities Airport gets 16.1" it will be the biggest snow storm since the Halloween Mega Storm of 1991.

We have a shot...stay tuned!

PH

Update 1:30pm:

Snowfall totals now at or over 1 foot in the metro!

1231 PM SNOW SHAKOPEE M13.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER

MNDOT traffic cams and my observations conclude....attempt travel only in emergencies...and at great risk of getting stranded...even in the metro.

MNDOT reports many freeway exit ramps impassable in the metro.

Cars stranded on entrance ramp at Highway 169 & I- 494

Snowfall totals will likely reach 16" to 20" in some parts of the metro.

Snow approaching 11" at the Huttner Weather Lab in west metro.

Reduced visibility in wind and blowing snow in west metro.

Blizzard conditions continue in southwest Minnesota. Winds gusts of 58 mph have been recorded in Worthington! That's a severe thunderstorm strength wind.

Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MONTEVIDEO LGT SNOW 12 9 85 N28G39 30.01R VSB 3/4 WCI -9
GRANITE FALLS SNOW 12 8 85 NW30 29.99R VSB 1/2 WCI -10
CANBY SNOW 7 4 88 NW30G40 30.06R VSB 1/4 WCI -17
MARSHALL CLOUDY 9 3 78 N35G43 29.95R VSB<1/4 WCI -15
REDWOOD FALLS FOG 14 11 87 N25G33 29.88R VSB 1/4 WCI -5
OLIVIA N/A 16 12 86 N25G40 29.90R WCI -3
PIPESTONE N/A 7 3 85 N29G36 29.87R WCI -16
WINDOM HVY SNOW 16 12 86 N35G41 29.75R VSB<1/4 WCI -6
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A N46G56 29.77R VSB<1/4
JACKSON HVY SNOW 16 14 93 N17G31 29.70R VSB<1/4 WCI 0
TRACY HVY SNOW 9 6 87 N30G41 29.89R VSB<1/4 WCI -13
SLAYTON HVY SNOW 7 5 89 N30G39 29.84R VSB<1/4 WCI -16

Update 12:30pm:

Storm nearing peak intensity next 3-6 hours.

Doppler Update:

Heavy snow bands on radar rotating through from Mankato up the Minnesota River Valley into the metro now. Snowfall rates in the heavy snow band at 1" to 2" per hour.

Visibilities:

One way to measure snowfall intensity is by visibility, especially where winds are still relatively lighter such as in the metro now. Metro observations now reporting heavy snow with visibilities of 1/4 to 1/8 mile. That corresponds to snowfall rates of 1" to 2" per hour!

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES HVY SNOW 21 18 88 N21G29 29.82F VSB 1/8 WCI 5
6HR MIN TEMP: 20; 6HR MAX TEMP: 21; 6HR PCP: 0.46;
ST PAUL FOG 21 19 92 N17G66 29.84F VSB 1/4 WCI 7
CRYSTAL HVY SNOW 22 17 81 N15G26 29.84S VSB 1/4 WCI 9
BLAINE SNOW 21 19 93 N20G33 29.85S VSB 1/2 WCI 6
EDEN PRAIRIE FOG 21 19 92 N18G30 29.79S VSB 1/4 WCI 6
6HR MIN TEMP: 20; 6HR MAX TEMP: 22; 6HR PCP: 0.09;
LAKEVILLE SNOW 21 19 93 NE17G30 29.76F VSB 1/2 WCI 7
SOUTH ST PAUL SNOW 23 20 90 N17G25 29.81F VSB 1/2 WCI 9
LAKE ELMO HVY SNOW 21 18 86 N18G25 29.81F VSB<1/4 WCI 6

Blizzard conditions now:

There is a full blow blizzard in southwest Minnesota right now. Winds sustained at 35mph...and visibilities under 1/4 mile in heavy falling and or blowing snow. Blizzard warnings now extend right up into the south and west metro!

Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MONTEVIDEO LGT SNOW 12 9 85 NE26G37 30.01R VSB 3/4 WCI -8
GRANITE FALLS SNOW 12 8 87 NW26G35 29.98S VSB 1/4 WCI -9
CANBY SNOW 7 4 88 NW26G39 30.04R VSB 1/4 WCI -16
MARSHALL CLOUDY 9 3 78 N36G44 29.92R VSB<1/4 WCI -16
REDWOOD FALLS FOG 16 13 88 N26G40 29.86S VSB 1/4 WCI -3
OLIVIA N/A 18 14 86 N40G48 29.89S WCI -4
PIPESTONE N/A N/A N/A N/A N29G38 29.84R
WINDOM HVY SNOW 14 12 92 N32 29.74R VSB<1/4 WCI -7
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A N44G58 29.74R VSB<1/4
JACKSON HVY SNOW 16 14 93 N18G24 29.67R VSB<1/4 WCI -1
TRACY HVY SNOW 10 7 88 N31G38 29.88R VSB<1/4 WCI -12
SLAYTON HVY SNOW N/A N/A N/A N28G35 29.82R VSB<1/4

Visibilities are likely near 0 now in many SW Minnesota communities. I-90 is closed...it's just too dangerous to send the plows out in this extreme of wind and snow. Do not travel today if you don't have to! It's juts plain stupid, even for us "hearty Minnesotans."

Snowfall totals:

We have exceeded 1 foot of snow in the Twin Cities just after noon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1217 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM SNOW SHAKOPEE 12/11/2010 M13.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM SNOW MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
12/11/2010 M11.7 INCH OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL AT KMSP AIRPORT...WITH 0.79 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. 6.8 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SNOW DRIFTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

1221 PM SNOW CHANHASSEN 44.86N 93.56W
12/11/2010 M11.4 INCH CARVER MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN CHANHASSEN.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SATURDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 1014 AM
10.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1015 AM
10.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 1131 AM
10.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1118 AM
10.00 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 1028 AM
9.70 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1114 AM
MEASURED IN THE HIGHLAND PARK AREA.
9.70 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 1027 AM
8.50 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1149 AM
8.50 2 S PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1040 AM
8.20 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1119 AM
8.20 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 1114 AM
8.00 1 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 1003 AM
8.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0915 AM
7.80 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 1106 AM
7.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 1105 AM
7.60 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1025 AM
7.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0935 AM
MEASURED AT SNELLING AND RANDOLPH.
7.20 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0920 AM
7.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 AM
MEASURED AT THE MSP AIRPORT.
7.10 2 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0841 AM
7.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1016 AM
7.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0655 AM
6.50 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 1004 AM
6.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0932 AM
6.30 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0754 AM
6.10 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
6.10 WACONIA MN CARVER 0712 AM
6.00 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0920 AM
5.30 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 0651 AM
5.20 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0848 AM
5.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0701 AM
5.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0957 AM
5.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0711 AM
4.60 5 S RED WING MN GOODHUE 0804 AM
4.30 WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0701 AM
4.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1040 AM
3.50 ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 1021 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1105 AM
3.00 ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0819 AM
2.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0830 AM
2.40 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0754 AM
2.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1107 AM
2.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0932 AM
2.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0807 AM
2.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0749 AM
1.80 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 1041 AM
1.20 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0900 AM

Additional snowfall:

We'll likely see another 6 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the metro...more in western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. At rates of 1" to 2" per hour, that's another 6" to 10" of snow for some locations.

Expect final snow totals in the 10" to 20" range for much of the metro and southern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin! There will likely be a 20" total somewhere in the metro...making this the biggest Twin Cities' snowfall since the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991.

Stay safe!

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Getting cranked up

Posted at 6:11 AM on December 11, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

Shortly before daybreak the center of low pressure was winding up in central Iowa. This storm still has plenty of energy and is likely to strengthen. Snow on the radar has shown breaks just south of the Twin Cities, but will fill-in this morning.

Several more inches of additional accumulation are likely throughout the day. Travel is expected to be extremely difficult outside the metro area including heading into Wisconsin. Blizzard Warnings may need to be extended further east in Minnesota this afternoon.

Here is an IR satellite image from about 530am this morning. The enhanced clouds indcate strong vertical motion and deep moisture. This is aimed at the southern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Here's a more detailed look at the storm as gathered by the NWS in Chanhassen.

Storm emerging

Posted at 9:13 PM on December 10, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

Radar animation and new model information suggest the storm is right on track. Snowfall predictions from earlier today need not be changed.

Here is an update from CPC on the greatest probability of eight inches or more from late tonight to Saturday evening. Refer to previous blogs for snowfall potential in your area.

Winds gusting to over 40 mph will create near blizzard condtions on Saturday along with dangerously cold wind chill readings.

Minnesota road conditions.

Update 4 am: Snow eases south, picks up later

Posted at 4:00 AM on December 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (10 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Snow, Winter storms

4 am Update:

Okay, I never can sleep during big storms anyway so here's a quick overnight update.

At 3:20am I measured 5" of snowfall in Deephaven at the weather lab. We have been under an intense band of snowfall producing 1" per hour for the past 2-3 hours in the Lake Minnetonka area.

Radar trends indicate (and the latest model runs support) a lull in snowfall working through southern Minnesota and into the south metro. There may be a let up in snowfall in some areas early Saturday morning...but I expect snowfall to fill in again as the storm reaches peak intensity Saturday.

NEXRAD shows a (temporary?) lull in snowfall working into south metro at 3:45am.

The late night NAM model cranked out an insane 28.1" snowfall total! This would rival the Halloween Mega Storm if it verifies...but I do not buy that total just yet. What we refer to as "short term radar and satellite trends" or "nowcasting" suggest a lull in the action for a few critical hours early Saturday morning that could keep snowfall totals in check.

(Click for bigger image)

For now, I am still forecasting snowfall totals of between 10" and 20" as a range for the greater metro area and much of western Wisconsin.

Still, the storm now appears to be coming in 2 or three intense waves of snowfall intensity...and the second wave late Saturday morning through midday could be the most intense. Forecast models suggest (and satellite trends may support) a period of intense snowfall with possible thundersnow producing prolific snowfall rates of up to 3" to 4" per hour spinning up toward the metro around 8-9am.

Potential "snowbursts" AM & PM?
(Click to enlarge)

If that happens we could pick up a lot of snow in a hurry!

The NAM model then suggests another lull in snowfall intensity...with another 1" to 2" per hour burst late in the afternoon.

Bottom line: The storm will come in waves, and it really doesn't matter at this point exactly how much snow falls...there will be enough snow and wind to produce blizzard to near blizzard conditions in much of southern Minnesota Saturday.

Stay tuned to MRR News stations (KNOW 91.1FM in the metro) Saturday. Craig Edwards will have hourly updates, and the latest snow totals and model runs through the morning and I will pick things up with hourly updates after noon as we follow the storm through the day.

Be safe, and enjoy the snow if you can!

PH

Evening Update:

Ice and snow progressing northeast as expected tonight. It still looks like a wintery mix could begin anywhere between about 8pm and 10pm in the metro...then change to all snow and pick up in intensity after midnight.

I set up the Twin Cities radar loop to show snow, ice and rain. Latest radar update here.

We could have 6" of snow on the ground already by early Saturday morning in many areas.

Latest model trends all support high snow totals...in the 15"+ range. I'm sticking with a forecast snow total range of 10" to 20" for the metro and western Wisconsin by Saturday evening.

Travel should be fine around the metro until 9pm or so...then al bets are off. Get home early, or be ready for snow (and maybe a little ice) if you are going to be out later tonight.

PH

Doppler Update 4:30pm :

Sioux Falls doppler showing mixed bag of rain, ice and snow busting out and moving NE into southwest Minnesota during the 4pm hour.

Moisture surge should reach the metro between 8pm & 10pm tonight. A possible wintery mix should quickly change to all snow and intensity will increase rapidly after midnight.

Just when you thought it was safe to think about maybe lowering snowfall forecasts...the 18Z (noon) NAM model run cranks out a 19" snowfall total for the metro!

That's the highest output of any numerical forecast model so far. I think that's probably on the high end of the range...but it supports the notion of a 10" to 20" forecast in the max snowfall band.

PH

All systems are go for a MAJOR winter storm in Minnesota tonight and Saturday.

It looks like this storm will deserve all the pre-storm hype we can pile on, as a powerful mix of snow, wind and bitter cold locks in over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this weekend.

Here's the latest (and hopefully best) thinking at this point...and some headlines on the storm.

-Winter storm warnings are up for the metro, blizzard warnings for much of SW MN, inclding counties just southwest of the metro!

Winter storm warnings are flying for the metro. Blizzard warnings include Mankato, Redwood Falls, Marshall and Worthington.

-The biggest emphasis and IMPACTS with this storm will be heavy snow, wind causing severe blowing and drifting snow, and bitter cold behind the storm. There may be near blizzard conditons in much of Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night! We all love to focus on inches...but travel conditons will be the same (travel difficult to impassable) Saturday regeardless of 10" or 20" of total snowfall.

-Snow will spread into SW Minnesota this afternoon, and should begin in the metro sometime between 9pm and midnight.

-The snow will pick up in intensity after midnight, and snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour from midnight through about 9-10 am Saturday. There could be convective snowbursts or "thundersnow" with this storm overnight into early Saturday. Snowfall rates can approach 2" to 3" per hour in thundersnow.

Nam model snowfall output indicating 1"+ per hour for many hours...and a total of 18.9"!
(Click for much more easily readable image)

-Snow will continue through much of Saturday PM before winding down late PM.

-Strong winds between 25 and 40 mph will kick up Saturday into Saturday night, causing severe blowing and drifting of relatively dry powdery snowfall. There will be blizzard or near blizzard conditions in much of Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night. (Blizzard criteria = sustained winds of 35 mph and visibilities at or under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow.)

-The storm will likely mix with freezing rain along the I-90 corridor...and sleet in south central Minnesota.

-Storm total snowfall accumulations could approach 10" to 20" for much of east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by late Saturday...including the Twin Cities metro area. This has the potential to be the biggest snowfall since the Halloween Mega storm in 1991 for some locations.

NAM model continues to lay out the heaviest snow band (up to 16"+?) right across the Twin Cities metro Saturday.

Model runs with "Cobb Technique" snowfall output...10" to 18"?

This will be a major winter storm...and possibly (hopefully!) the biggest storm this winter season. I expect travel to be extremely difficult (impassable?) outside the metro by Saturday PM & evening. I also expect numerous road closures and MNDOT may have to pull plows off the roads Saturday in some areas.

A top 10 storm?

For the record, I do not think this storm has the capacity to rival the Halloween Mega Storm for overall snowfall totals.

But, if we get 15" in the metro with this storm, it would be the 11th biggest snowstorm in Twin Cities history. Here are the top snow storms in Twin Cities history courtesy of the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Top Thirteen Largest Snowfalls for Twin Cities:

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985
12. 14.3 inches: November 29 - November 30, 1991
13. 14.1 inches: March 22 - March 23, 1952

If the snow total with this storm exceed 16" it will in fact be the biggest snow since the Halloween Mega Strom of 1991. That's a tall order, but it looks like at least possibility with this storm. A 15" snowfall would make this the biggest snow in the metro in 11 years, since March of 1999.

Bottom line: A major winter storm will bring snow, wind and then bitter cold to Minnesota during the next 48 hours. Be ready!

PH

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The birth of a storm

Posted at 9:15 AM on December 10, 2010 by Craig Edwards (5 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

Here is a very busy graphic from the Chanhassen NWS office. Previously I posted a graphical forecast from Duluth.

Here's the deal. A major winter storm will hammer a large part of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan later tonight and all day Saturday.

We expect clouds to gather snowflakes this afternoon in the Dakotas. Snow will increase in coverage and intenity later this afternoon in western Minnesota. Snow begins in the Twin Cities after the rush hour. Heavy snow falls overnight and begins to taper in the west.

As the storm system strengthens tonight and Saturday morning winds will howl and temperatures will plummet. We should find ourselves in very difficult to perhaps nearly impossible travel on Saturday in a large part of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Pay heed to local authorities on travel advice on Saturday. Total snowfall accumulations on the average of six to twelve inches are likely from Willmar to the Twin Cities to Hayward.

Lake enhanced snowfall of greater than sixteen inches will be possible in Ashland and Superior.

Strong northwest winds will make it extremely challenging to measure the snow. Expect drifts several feet high by Saturday afternoon. Visibilities will be at or below a quarter mile at times.
CE

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Major winter storm: 6" to 12" possible!

Posted at 5:46 PM on December 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Here we go again!

Winter storm watches have been posted for Friday night and Saturday as a major winter storm winds up and makes another run at Minnesota.

Here's my latest thinking on what looks like yet another Saturday snow event for Minnesota. I'll be looking at two more model runs (tonight & Friday AM) to look for any changes, but for now it looks like we are a "go" for heavy snow in the metro Friday night and Saturday.

-Snow begins sometime Friday evening, but really picks up intensity late Friday night after midnight.

-The peak of the storm should be Saturday...with the highest snow rates and increasing winds and blowing snow.

-At this point, I still think 6" to 12" by late Saturday is a good starting range for the metro accumulations...and much of central & southern Minnesota. This storm looks very similar to a week ago...which cranked out similar snow totals.

Two of our most reliable models are cranking out heavy snow totals. The latest NAM run says 14.1" The GFS cranks out 7.5"

Models cranking ot a wide range in snowfall totals.

It looks like another dry powdery type snowfall with high snow:water ratios. Both the NAM and GFS put the ratio between 15:1 & 20:1.

NAM snow water ratio at a powdery 15:1 to 20:1

NAM model paints a 14" snow "bull's eye" right over the metro.

Bitterly cold arctic air will pour in behind the storm. Temperatures may not climb above zero Sunday in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Temperatures may reach -30 in the north by Monday morning, with -15 to -20 possible in and near the Twin Cities. Wind chills could reach the dangerous -25 to -35 range Saturday night & Sunday morning.

Bottom line: This looks like a major winter storm for the metro and most of central & southern Minnesota and Wisconsin...and could feature similar snow totals to last weekend...but with more wind and falling temperatures that could produce borderline blizzard conditions outside the metro Saturday.

Prepare for another shot of heavy snow, along with wind and bitter cold this weekend.

PH

Snowiest start since '91: Another 6"-12" Saturday?

Posted at 9:30 AM on December 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

AM model run update 9:30am:

The latest NAM model run Thursday morning cranks out .97" of liquid equivalent for the metro Saturday. That may be high...but if it verifies that would produce in well excess of 9" of snow!

The latest trends indicate this could be a major winter storm with 6" to 12+" snowfall accumulations and winds over 25mph somewhere near the metro Saturday!

Latest NAM model 84 hour snowfall paints a stripe of 12" snowfall over the Twin Cities Saturday.

Thursday AM NAM model run cranks out 14" of snow for the metro Saturday!

It's still early and a lot can change between now and Saturday, but as we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

****
The 2010-'11 snow season is off and running with a bang.

MNDOT traffic cam shows shot of snow snow coming down Thursday morning along Highway 100 in St. Louis Park.

Another clipper is racing through Minnesota today. This one is a "mini-clipper" and will bring just nuisance snowfall under an inch (and a little freezing drizzle) to most of southern Minnesota today as it zips along to the east. Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin may see a bit more snow...with 2" to 4" possible north of Hinckley and Duluth, and east into Wisconsin.

Milder today & Friday: Today's weather system will drag some milder air briefly into the Upper Midwest for our mildest temps so far in December. Temps could top out in the lower 30s today...with 20s Friday.

The warmest reading in the Twin Cities so far this December is 25 degrees, back on December 4th.

Next system Saturday:

I don't know what it is about Saturdays in the metro...but 3 of the past 4 weekend have featured a Friday night-Saturday snow system...and it looks like the next two weeks may continue the trend.

The forecast models are spinning up another potent snow system Saturday. The low is forecast to develop ahead of an arctic outbreak, and track into the southern half of Minnesota overnight Friday into Saturday. There is still some question as to how far south the system may track....but it looks powerful enough to crank out a band of 4" to 8"+ (and maybe as much as 10+") in the heaviest snow band.

NAM model paints an 8" snow bull's eye over the metro Saturday.

In some ways this system looks much like the super clipper of last weekend, with the best chance for heavy snow just south of the metro. The metro is still on the northern edge of the system at this time....but stay tuned for forecast updated tonight and Friday for the possibility of heavy snow from the metro south Friday night & Saturday.

Another shot of "champagne powder" for the metro Saturday?
(Click for more easily readable image)

Snowiest start to winter in nearly 20 years:

If you think the snow is piling up early, you're right. We've shoveled 16.7" away from our driveways around Twin Cities Airport sine the snow began to fly this season. That's the second highest snowfall tally this early on record. At the NWS office near Prince's Paisley Park studios in Chanhassen, a whopping 22.9" has fallen so far.

The only year with more snow to date was 1991...the year of the Halloween Mega Storm.

La Nina to blame?

The latest monthly El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic's Discussion is hot off the presses today. (And yes, my name is Paul Huttner and I'm a weather geek)

The headline is that La Nina (cooler than average ocean temperatures) persists in the tropical Pacific. This could be one reason we are off to a snowy pattern in 2010-11. While there is no discernable link to snowier winters in La Nina years in sotuhern Minnesota, there is a statisitacal correlation to more snow in nuch of the northern USA, inclding northern Minnesota.

Here's the verbage from NOAA's CPC.

"Likely La Niña impacts during December 2010-February 2011 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies (along with a concomitant increase in snowfall), Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Below-average precipitation is most likely across the southern states, extending into the Mid-Atlantic region. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for the northernmost western and central states, and a higher possibility of above-average temperatures is forecast for much of the southern and central U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on November 18th, 2010)."

So far the winter season winter is going according to the La Nina plan in the Upper Midwest.

Prolific Lake-effect in Wisconsin & Michigan's U.P.

Check out some of the snow totals from this week's prolific lake-effect snow event on the south shore of Lake Superior. Anywhere form 15" to 30+" has fallen with the season's first big arctic outbreak just east of the Apostle Islands.

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Thursday clipper & lake-effect snow machine

Posted at 7:00 PM on December 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Lake effect snow, Snow, Winter storms

Our next Alberta Clipper is streaking toward northern Minnesota for Thursday.

The surface low is tracking north this time, along the U.S. - Canadian border. The best chance of a shot of 2" to 4" of fresh snow will be in the northern half of Minnesota Thursday.

It looks like enough warm air may mix into the lower layers in southern Minnesota to mix some freezing drizzle into the equation in the metro. A wintry mix should arrive in the metro Thursday morning, and most of the models are cranking out an inch or so of fresh snow for southern Minnesota.

Temperatures should climb briefly into the lower 30s for a few hours Thursday, so hopefully road crews will have plenty of time to treat and keep roads wet, in good shape.

Lake-effect snow machine in high gear.

Check out this remarkably clear MODIS satellite image. You can see the plumes of lake-effect snow streaming southeast over Lake Superior and Michigan. As much as 3 to 4 feet of snow has blasted areas downwind from the Great Lakes this week.

NASA MODIS image shows lake effect "plumes."
(Click for detailed image)

You can also see frozen, snow covered lakes in much of Minnesota, including Upper & Lower Red, Leech, and Mille Lacs.

Deep snow cover is clearly evident in southern Minnesota, and snow free ground still lingers in eastern Wisconsin.

Lake-effect snow is notorious in upstate New York. Areas around Buffalo routinely get blasted with snowfall by the foot during arctic outbreaks.

Recipe for Lake-Effect Snow:

NOAA sums up lake-effect below.

"Lake-effect snow forms in the winter when cold air masses move over warmer lake waters. As the warm lake water heats the bottom layer of air, lake moisture evaporates into the cold air. Since warm air is lighter and less dense than cold air, it rises and begins to cool. The moisture that evaporates into the air condenses and forms clouds, and snow begins falling.

Lake-effect snows are not confined to the Great Lakes region, although they are most common and heaviest there. Any large body of water can generate lake-effect snow downwind if it remains free of ice. The Great Salt Lake in Utah produces significant lake-effect snow. There's also bay-effect snow that forms in the same manner as lake-effect snow, only over the ocean. Cape Cod Bay in Massachusetts and Chesapeake Bay in Maryland and Virginia will occasionally produce bay-effect snow."

If you're not a fan of 4 feet of snow on your roof, be thankful we live "upwind" from the Great Lakes and the bulk the of lake-effect snow machine.

PH

More "free insulation" on the way

Posted at 5:05 PM on December 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Update 5pm:

It still looks like there may be two chances for (generally light) snowfall this week. A clipper on Thursday may spread snow into Minnesota, and a there is the potential for a second shot Saturday.

PH

You may find yourself doing a double take at the calendar today.

Yes, it's still December. And no, you didn't wake up from a long winter's nap and sleep through Christmas. (Sounds tempting, yes?)

Our wintery landscape has the look and feel of mid-January these days. It's like living in a snow globe in Minnesota...a few seconds after you shook the pretty scene inside the glass bubble. Snow is still drifting down...ever so slowly.

It's pretty from the inside, but one step outside and it feels like January 15th. That's what we call a "window forecast" in weather.

Last weekend's prolific snow producer was like a clipper on steroids just south and west of the metro. Some tremendous snow totals between 9 and 11 inches fell in a band from Litchfield & Hutchinson to Lakeville, Northfield to near Rochester.

Impressive snow totals.
(Click to enlarge)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2010

...SNOWFALL SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 3RD AND 4TH SNOW STORM...

THE ACTIVE WINTER CONTINUED INTO EARLY DECEMBER FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AS A PACIFIC
ORIGIN SYSTEM MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON DECEMBER
3RD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH. SNOWFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WERE THE HIGHEST IN A SWATH FROM NEAR MORRIS
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TWIN
CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.70 2 SSW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
11.60 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0630 AM
11.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0638 AM
11.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0702 AM
11.00 1 S STANTON MN GOODHUE 0754 AM
10.90 WANAMINGO MN GOODHUE 0743 AM
10.70 1 S HAMPTON MN DAKOTA 0807 AM
10.50 CARVER MN CARVER 0700 AM
10.50 2 NW CHASKA MN CARVER 0807 AM
10.50 2 SW CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0825 AM
10.50 SW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1015 AM
10.20 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0743 AM
10.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0757 AM
9.90 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0807 AM
9.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0730 AM
9.10 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0622 AM
9.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
8.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0757 AM
8.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0743 AM
8.50 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0807 AM
8.50 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0807 AM
8.50 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0928 AM
8.30 WACONIA MN CARVER 0705 AM
8.10 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
8.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT LOWER ST. ANTHONY FALLS
8.00 COKATO MN WRIGHT 0740 AM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0800 AM
7.80 1 SW RED WING MN GOODHUE 0705 AM
7.50 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0927 AM
7.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0743 AM
7.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1039 AM
7.20 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0835 AM
7.10 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
7.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0750 AM
7.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0807 AM
6.90 5 N COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0807 AM
6.70 4 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0700 AM
6.70 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0807 AM
6.60 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0843 AM
6.60 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 1036 AM
6.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0742 AM
6.50 WAVERLY MN WRIGHT 0958 AM
6.40 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0807 AM
6.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL INTL AIRPORT
6.10 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0828 AM
6.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0907 PM
6.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0705 AM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0705 AM
6.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0705 AM
5.90 1 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0828 AM
5.80 SE LAUDERDALE MN RAMSEY 0807 AM
5.80 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0921 AM
5.80 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 1034 AM
5.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
5.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0600 PM
5.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
5.30 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1000 AM
5.00 WELCOME MN MARTIN 1218 PM
5.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST. CLOUD PRISON
5.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
5.00 6 W EAST BETHEL MN ANOKA 0608 AM
5.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0705 AM
5.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0705 AM
5.00 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0740 AM
4.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0705 AM
MEASURED AT SCSU
4.80 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0807 AM
4.60 NEW RICHMOND WI ST. CROIX 0622 AM
4.60 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0807 AM
4.60 1 SW CHISAGO CITY MN CHISAGO 0807 AM
4.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0638 AM
4.50 2 NNW NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0843 AM
4.30 BOWLES MN MORRISON 0858 AM
4.20 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0800 AM
4.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0633 AM
4.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
4.00 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0818 AM
4.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0953 AM
3.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0743 AM
3.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1038 AM
3.60 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0632 AM
3.50 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0608 AM
3.50 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0912 AM
3.30 RICE MN BENTON 0705 AM
3.30 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0803 AM
3.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
3.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0807 AM
3.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0807 AM
3.00 2 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0825 AM
3.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0840 AM
3.00 7 NNW OGILVIE MN KANABEC 1034 AM
3.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1037 AM
2.80 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0158 PM
2.60 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0632 AM
2.30 3 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0806 AM

The forecast models did an excellent job with laying out the heavy snow area for the clipper, but an unusual injection of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, combined with cold air in the system to squeeze out every inch of snowfall potential.

The "enhanced clipper" had staying power, spreading heavy snow from the northern Rockies into the Ohio Valley.

Free insulation!

If you grumbled a little while pushing the relatively light but deep powder off your driveway, you may be relieved to know there are some benefits of all that snow on your roof. It turns out snow is a great insulator!

Here's the deal. A light fluffy snow like last weekend's leaves tiny air pockets between the snow crystals as it piles up. The trapped air makes an excellent insulator.

10" of fresh powdery snow on your roof is roughly equivalent to a 6" layer of fiberglass insulation! That's about an R-18 value added to your roof, roughly the same as in many walls of your home. Maybe we should start forecasting snow storms in "R-Value" instead of inches? "We're looking at an R-18 snow event this weekend...."

An "R-18 snow" on the weather lab roof?

As long as ice dams are not an issue, it may pay to leave this "champagne powder" on your roof a while.

Heavy too:

All that snow can add a ton (literally!) of extra weight to your roof too. Most homes are designed to handle plenty of winter snow, usually about 30-40 pounds per square foot.

A dry powdery snow (20:1 snow:water ratio) weighs about 3 pounds per cubic foot. On a 20'x40' roof (800 sq ft) that's about 2,400 pounds of extra weight on your roof. At the other extreme, an extremely wet (and rare) snow (3:1) can weigh as much as 20 pounds per cubic foot. That's as much as 16,000 pounds on a 20'x40' rooftop!

Chilly week ahead:

It looks like polar air is locked in through Wednesday in Minnesota. If we lose the stubborn clouds (which could happen overnight tonight) we may see temperatures plunge to zero of just below in much of Minnesota early Tuesday morning. If we dip below zero in the metro, it will be the coldest night (and our first sub-zero night) in nearly 11 months...since we hit -5 last January 29th.

Temperatures will briefly moderate to near 30 by Thursday, as a clipper slides by to the north. That system could bring a light snow to southern Minnesota, and maybe a shot of 2"-4" up north. A clipper ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday may bring another shot of snow.

There are signs of a potential thaw along about December 14-16th, but overall December looks like a cold end to a mild year in Minnesota and much of the USA.

No escape to sunny Florida:

Be glad you didn't book that warm weather getaway to sunny Florida this week. A hard freeze with low temps in the 20s in on tap. No doubt this will make news headlines on networks and cable news outlets as citrus growers douse trees in ice to try and ward off damage form the freeze.

Stay warm, and enjoy the pretty snow scene outside your window!

PH

Comment on this post

Snowfall totals

Posted at 10:50 AM on December 4, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow

From tallies reported this morning, Lester Prairie's 13 inches of new snow is the greatest total. Hutchinson through Carver to Zumbrota picked up ten to eleven inches.

Observers in St. Cloud, Stillwater and Anoka measured about five to six inches.

Snowfall reports from the Chanhassen NWS Office. Search your city by going to previous version lastest snowfall reports.

CE

Maximized the potential

Posted at 8:03 AM on December 4, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

Normally, which really doesn't happen in the weather world, we don't get clobbered with this much snow with a system moving in a clipper like fashion. This northwest to southeast track up the weak surface low produced a band of nine to eleven inches of snow from Hutchinson Lester Prairie to Zumbrota.

The fluffy layer of accumulating snow was in large part the result of great quality snow produced in the snow growth area around eight to ten thousand feet. The duration of the movie-like snow flakes contributed to the high totals as well.

Here's an image of the snowflake production temperature regime. Get your magnifying glass out and check out the snowflakes in your yard this morning.

Snow pretty much by-passed northern Minnesota but there is still eleven to twelve inches on the ground from International Falls to Duluth.
CE

Comment on this post

Snow fades: Icy roads linger Saturday

Posted at 1:00 AM on December 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Our latest winter storm has delivered a steady powdery snow to the metro and southern Minnesota as advertised.

As of 1am Saturday Glencoe takes the Golden Snowshovel award with 9"!
I will not be surprised to see isolated 10" totals come in this morning south & west of the metro with this prolific powder producer.

1245 AM SNOW GLENCOE 44.77N 94.15W 12/04/2010 M9.0 INCH MCLEOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Snow burst continues late Friday night on MNDOT traffic cam at Hwy 41 & 212 in Chaska.

A hefty 6.5" of fresh powder in Deephaven at 11:30pm Friday night.

Radar trends (and model data) shows snow tapering during the overnight hours, but not before another shot of 2" to 4" for many locations from the metro southeast.

NAM model paints another 2-4" by 6am in the metro, with heavier totals in SE MN.

Snow gradually tapering west of the metro late Friday night.

That will bring storm totals into the hefty 4" to 8"+ (with some isolated 10" amounts possible!) range under the heavy snow axis just (and I mean just) south and west of the metro.

The range across the metro looks like from 3" far northeast....to a good 6"+ in the south metro, with some isolated 8" totals possible far SW metro by morning.

Here are some snowfall totals late Friday evening:
(Including a whopping 8" at Litchfield west of the metro!)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2010

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
8.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0915 PM
7.30 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 1000 PM
7.00 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0825 PM
7.00 NICOLLET MN NICOLLET 0750 PM
7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0734 PM
6.70 CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
6.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0903 PM
6.50 WACONIA MN CARVER 0607 PM
6.50 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0915 PM
6.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0555 PM
6.30 COKATO MN WRIGHT 0848 PM
6.00 KERKHOVEN MN SWIFT 0915 PM
6.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0835 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0627 PM
5.80 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0824 PM
5.50 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0900 PM
5.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0900 PM
5.50 1 WNW FARIBAULT MN RICE 0822 PM
5.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0557 PM
5.50 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0339 PM
5.20 ST AUGUSTA MN STEARNS 1010 PM
5.00 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 1014 PM
5.00 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
5.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0420 PM
5.00 OLIVIA MN RENVILLE 0252 PM
5.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0243 PM
4.80 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0955 PM
4.80 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0846 PM
4.70 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0900 PM
MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
4.50 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0602 PM
4.50 WATERVILLE MN LE SUEUR 0509 PM
4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0738 PM
4.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0855 PM
4.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0814 PM
3.80 MORRISTOWN MN RICE 0557 PM
3.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 1001 PM
3.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0835 PM
3.50 WOOD LAKE MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0805 PM
3.10 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0905 PM
3.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0930 PM

"Deck light doppler" shows the snow coming down.

Use extreme caution if you must travel overnight into early Saturday morning...and ENJOY the fresh wintery landscape if you are able this weekend!

PH

Evening update:

Snowfall update 8pm:

-Mankato 7"
-Northfield 5.8"
-Shakopee 4.5"
-Bloomington 4.2"
-Farmington 4"
-Deephaven 3.5"

Snowfall intensity peaking between now and midnight in most of southern Minnesota, including the metro.

I'm still forecasting a range of 3" to 6" across the metro by 6 am Saturday. The best chance of 6"+ in the southwest metro, Norwood, Waconia, Shakopee, Prior Lake. More likely to see 3" in the northeast metro...Wyoming, Lino Lakes, Scandia, Stillwater.

The heaviest snow band will run between Willmar and Redwood Falls through Hutchinson, Glencoe, New Ulm, Mankato, New Prague, Northfield, Waseca, Owatonna and Rochester. 4" to 8" can be expected in these areas, with some isolated 8"+ totals possible.

The radar is lighting up with brightly colored heavier snow bands moving through the metro and points south this evening. These bands of higher radar "reflectivity" indicate areas of heavier snowfall, with rates approaching (and in some cases exceeding) 1" per hour.

MNDOT traffic cams continue to show snow coming down heavily, and snarling traffic around much of the metro.

Snow burst continues at Highway 212 & Highway 41 in Chaska.

Snow covered and slippery at I-94 & Highway 280 in St. Paul

Visibilities continue to run in the 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile range in moderate snow in much of Minnesota.

Here are some of the latest snowfall totals from the Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2010

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0555 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0627 PM
5.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0557 PM
5.50 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0339 PM
5.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0444 PM
5.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0420 PM
5.00 OLIVIA MN RENVILLE 0252 PM
5.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0243 PM
4.50 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0602 PM
4.50 WATERVILLE MN LE SUEUR 0509 PM
4.50 NICOLLET MN NICOLLET 0431 PM
4.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0617 PM
4.00 WACONIA MN CARVER 0607 PM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0330 PM
3.80 MORRISTOWN MN RICE 0557 PM
3.50 WASECA MN WASECA 0622 PM
3.40 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
3.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0635 PM
3.00 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0456 PM
3.00 ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0343 PM
3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0341 PM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0338 PM
3.00 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0259 PM
3.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0255 PM
2.50 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0625 PM
2.50 LE SUEUR MN LE SUEUR 0318 PM
2.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1203 PM
1.90 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0557 PM
TAKEN AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
1.80 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0334 PM
1.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0557 PM
1.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0509 PM
1.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1130 AM
1.50 VESTA MN REDWOOD 1107 AM
1.40 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0557 PM
1.40 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0535 PM
1.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0323 PM
1.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0310 PM
1.00 LAMBERTON MN REDWOOD 1124 AM
1.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1110 AM
0.80 WAITE PARK MN STEARNS 0518 PM
0.20 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0337 PM

Look for the snow intensity to gradually taper off after midnight, but lighter snow may continue until the snow ends from west to east by around 6am Saturday.

Winter storm warnings remain in effect until 6am for much of Minnesota.

PH

Update 5:30pm:

Snow intensity now ramping up in the metro. Weather Lab "streetlight snow doppler" confirms reduced visibility and increased snowfall intensity.

MNDOT traffic cam on Highway 212 & 41 in Chaska shows heavy snow burst!

More scientific readings confirm visibilities down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile in moderate to at times heavy snowfall from the SW metro south and west.

LAKEVILLE SNOW 16 14 93 E9 30.07F VSB 1/2 WCI 4
GLENCOE SNOW 16 14 90 E9 30.04S VSB 1/4 WCI 5

MNDOT cam at I-494 & I-35 shows traffic crawling along in south metro.

Latest radar trends continue to show "bright banding" indicating areas of heavy snowfall just SW of the Twin Cities metro. These areas look in line to see some 4" to 8" snowfall totals by early Saturday AM.

Latest snow totals include around 2" and accumulating rapidly in the SW metro, and 4" in Willmar.

Road conditions will continue to be poor through tonight in much of west central, southern Minnesota and in the Twin Cities Metro. Prepare accordingly!

On the good side, thius is indeed a dry powdery snow, which will make for excellent skiing and outdoor play this weekend.

Enjoy....if you don't have to drive tonight.

PH

Update 4pm:

Doppler radar "Bright Bands" continue to favor areas in the SW & west metro and points south along I-35 to Northfield. Snowfall intensity is picking up as a whole over the metro now...with the heaviest bursts in the south & SW metro.

From Twin Cities NWS...

SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS...AND VISIBILITIES FROM AIRPORTS...INDICATE RATES WITHIN ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS BAND.

Expect snowfall rates to reach 1" per hour in the southwest metro over the next 1-3 hours.

I'm still forecasting a range of 3" to 6" across the metro by 6 am Saturday. The best chance of 6"+ in the southwest metro, Norwood, Waconia, Shakopee, Prior Lake. More likely to see 3" in the northeast metro...Wyoming, Lino Lakes, Scandia, Stillwater.

The heaviest snow band will run between Willmar and Redwood Falls through Hutchinson, Glencoe, New Ulm, Mankato, New Prague, Northfield, Waseca, Owatonna and Rochester. 4" to 8" can be expected in these areas, with some isolated 8"+ totals possible.

Snow:water ratios are quite high (around 16:1)...meaning a dry powdery snow.

NAM model cranks out 6.2" for MSP Airport.
(Click for more easily readable image)

Here are some of the latest snowfall totals form Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2010

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE DECEMBER 3RD WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
5.50 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0339 PM
5.00 OLIVIA MN RENVILLE 0252 PM
5.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0243 PM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0330 PM
3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0341 PM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0338 PM
3.00 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0259 PM
3.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0255 PM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0239 PM
2.50 LE SUEUR MN LE SUEUR 0318 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0325 PM
2.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1203 PM
1.80 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0334 PM
1.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1130 AM
1.50 VESTA MN REDWOOD 1107 AM
1.20 MORRISTOWN MN RICE 0213 PM
1.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0323 PM
1.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0310 PM
1.00 WACONIA MN CARVER 0248 PM
1.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1223 PM
1.00 LAMBERTON MN REDWOOD 1124 AM
1.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1110 AM
0.30 ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 1157 AM
0.20 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0337 PM

PH

Update 3:15pm:

Snow intentisty is building now west of the metro and into the SW metro at this hour.

MNDOT traffic cam at I-494 & Hwy 100 shows a worse than usual rush hour.

Radar indicates "bright banding" or areas of higher reflectivity associated with bigger (more reflective) snow flakes (stellar dendrites) from near Glencoe moving into Carver County near Waconia, and spreading into the south metro to New Prague. These bands can yield snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour.

"Bright Bands" setting up just SW of metro.

Expect snow intensities to increase in the metro over the next 1-2 hours, and a nasty PM rush...expecially in the southwest half of the metro.

Redwood Falls already has plied up 5" of powder...with more 2" and 3" reports coming in my the minute.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2010

SNOWING FOR TWO HOURS THUS FAR.
0243 PM SNOW REDWOOD FALLS 44.54N 95.11W
12/03/2010 M5.0 INCH REDWOOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

PH

Update 2:55pm:

Impressive snow totals now coming in!

0243 PM SNOW REDWOOD FALLS 44.54N 95.11W
12/03/2010 M5.0 INCH REDWOOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0239 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/03/2010 M3.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA

Doppler update 2:09pm:

Snow is increasing and has overspread the metro. Roads are getting slicker by the hour this afternoon.

MSP NEXRAD shows snow increasing. Heaviest band from Willmar-Hutch-Glencoe-Le Sueur at 2pm.
(Click to enlarge)

Visibilities droppong to 1/2 mile in moderte snow now in SW metro and points west.

EDEN PRAIRIE SNOW 18 13 80 E12 30.10F VSB 1/2 WCI 5

GRANITE FALLS SNOW 18 15 88 E13 30.01F VSB 1/2 WCI 5
NEW ULM SNOW 18 16 93 E9 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 6

PH

Here we go!

Our next Minnesota winter storm is getting cranked up this afternoon and tonight.

An impressive band of snow has developed on schedule and is moving east into the metro this afternoon. It looks like the snow will be here beofre PM rush in much of the metro, and there may be enough light snow to slick up roads for Friday PM rush today. Plan for a little extra time getting around this afternoon... and especially this evening.

MNDOT traffic cam shows snow and slick roads already along Highway 212 & Powers Blvd. in Chaska in SW metro.

Roads are already slick west of the metro including Redwood Falls, New Ulm, Mankato, Hutchinson, Glencoe, Fairfax, Willmar.

Here's the latest on the increasing winter storm.

-Latest Twin Cities radar

-MNDOT traffic cams and info

Snow shield:

Snow is increasing in basically south of I-94 to the Minnesota River Valley. Already some snow reports coming in including:

0132 PM SNOW HUTCHINSON 44.89N 94.37W
12/03/2010 E1.0 INCH MCLEOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1256 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/03/2010 M1.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA

1130 AM SNOW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
12/03/2010 M1.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Snow is blossoming on radar as it moves into the metro. Light snow began at 1:20pm at the Huttner Weather Lab near the east end of Lake Minnetonka, and will spread over the metro by 3pm.

Metro radar shows snow shield expanding east.

As I suggested may happen yesterday, the latest model runs have shifted the snow slightly to the south. I'm going to trim an inch off my metro forecast from yesterday, thinking 3" to 6" by Saturday AM as a range in the metro. Highest totals will likely be in the southwest metro...think Waconia, Chaska, Norwood.

Models favoring snow totals between 4" and 6" for MSP Airport by Saturday AM.
(Click for bigger image)

It still looks like the heaviest band of 4" to 8" will set up along the Minnesota River and north. Willmar-Mankato-Waseca-Owatonna-Rochester.

NAM model paints heaviest snow band just SW of metro.

Bottom line: The storm is still on track. Expect snow to increase this afternoon and evening. Prepare for slick roads through tonight and into Saturday morning.

PH

Forecast: Winter storm warning Friday

Posted at 5:00 PM on December 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Welcome to meteorological winter and our next shot of winter weather in Minnesota.

A "hybrid" Alberta Clipper/Pacific storm (A Wyoming Winder?) is tracking for Minnesota. The system will spread a swath of dry powdery snow into Minnesota Friday and Friday night.

Winter storm warnings and advisories have been hoisted for much of Minnesota.

The system has several factors going for it to produce significant plowable snow over much of central and southern Minnesota.

1) Temperatures are cold enough for ALL SNOW. No rain/snow line to deal with here...so every flake that falls will pile up on roads and your driveway.

2) The colder air will make for an efficient snow producer. The forecast models are cranking out snow:water ratios between 15:1 and 20:1 with this system. This will be a "Champagne Power" snowfall like they get at Steamboat. (Saturday should be a GREAT day for skiing around the metro, maybe one of the best this winter.) Because this will be a dry snow and have a little more moisture than usual, the system will crank out relatively high snowfall amounts for a "clipper type" system.

3) Temperatures around 10k feet will be in the perfect range (-12C to -16C) for maximim "dendritic growth" capable of producing big, high qulaity snowflakes that can accumulate rapidly. Here's the text from the Twin Cities NWS Thursday PM forecast discussion.

TEMPS IN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA ARE FORECAST BETWEEN -12 CELSIUS AND -16 CELSIUS...VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE SNOWFLAKES AND HEAVY SNOW.

There are still two more critical model runs (tonight & Friday AM) to come in before the snow flies. With that in mind, here's my best shot at a timeline, forecast snow totals, and effects for the storm in Minnesota Friday & Friday night.

The System: "Hybrid" Alberta Clipper-Pacific storm. The track is more southerly than a traditional Alberta Clipper. (Surface low coming through Wyoming and dropping south into Kansas) Because of this track the system may have a bit more moisture to work with than a traditional Clipper. There is also still the potential for the storm's snow shield to jog south, and reduce snow amounts for the metro accordingly.

The Timeline: Snow should break out in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota (Ortonville, Morris) Friday morning, and expand slowly east Friday. It looks like snow may hold off in the Twin Cities until late afternoon. The first part (and maybe all?) of PM rush hour could be okay in the metro...with snow moving this way. Still, it might be a good idea to get going home early Friday PM, especially if you are heading west.

Snow should continue from Friday evening through about 6am Saturday, then pull away rapidly to the east. The peak of the snow intensity should occur between 9pm Friday evening and 3am Saturday morning.

The Track: The surface low is tracking unusually far south with this system. That's a scary scenario for forecasters...as there is a chance it may displace the snow shield southward along with the surface low track...and drop forecast snow totals on the north edge of the storm.

The upper low (which also supports snow accumulations) is slated to track just southwest of the Twin Cities...and this should help keep snow going in the metro Friday night.

The snow axis will run NW-SE, generally parallel to I-94 and the Minnesota River Valley.

It appears the heaviest snow band will set up just southwest of the Twin Cities metro, on a Willmar-Mankato-Rochester line, and could spread into the SW metro.

Snow Totals: Ah yes..the moment we've all been waiting for.

I'm using the "24 hour rule" here. I usually like to give snow totals about 24 hours in advance of the onset of snowfall. This is often the best balance between giving people ample time to prepare and adjust plans, and giving the forecast models time to latch onto the storm.

The modles insist on cranking out anywhere form about .32" (GFS) to .45" (NAM) of water with this system. That would translate into a pretty good pile of snow at at 15:1 or 20:1 snow:water ratio.

Heaviest snow band: 4" to 9" totals by Saturday morning 30 miles either side of a line from Ortonville-Willmar-Mankato-Waseca-Rochester. Includes Morris, Montevideo, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, Hutchinson, Litchfield, Fairfax, Glencoe, and Owatonna.

I-94 Corridor: 4" to 7" by Saturday morning.( Fargo-Fergus Falls-Alexandria-St. Cloud-Twin Cities Metro-Eau Claire.

Best chance of 6" to 7" in southwest metro communities of Waconia, Norwood, Chaska. Best chance of 4" or less northeast metro Forest Lake, Cambridge.) 4" to 6" looks like a good range for the downtowns right now.

Models and NWS cranking out 5" to 8" totals for Twin Cities Airport.
(Click for bigger image)

North and south? Generally amounts should drop off to 1" to 3" north and south of these areas. Think Hinckley, Brainerd, Duluth, Worthington, Pipestone.

NAM model lays out heaviest snow band just SW of metro.

NAM model cranks out snow:water ratios in the 20:1 range.
(click for a bigger, more easily readable image)

What could go wrong?

There is still a chance that the storm could jog south. That could reduce snowfall totals in the Twin Cities, and increase thotals accordingly along the I-90 corridor if it happens.

Bototm Line: Expect snow to spread across Minnesota Friday and Friday night. Roads will be snow covered and slippery. Prepare accordingly!

By the way I LOVE forecasting snow. It's one of the most challenging and exciting forecasts a weather geek can make. (It's also often humbling...or downright humiliating!)

There are many approaches forecasters take to forecasting snowfall, and I find them fascinating, and even amusing. I won't name names, but if you look at various forecasts you can see that some forecasters shoot form the hip a long way out in front of the storm...and scatter varying snowfall amounts around like buckshot. In this scenario you may hear "several" snow forecasts with a big "range." This can be tough for the customer (you!) to sift through and use as valuable information.

The other extreme is some forecasters who use what I call the "gun to the target" analogy. The wait to issue snowfall totals until they walk the barrel of the "forecast gun" right up to the target's bull's eye...then pull the trigger. (Sometimes after the snow has already begun!) Pretty easy to get a good forecast then, but how much value to the viewer/listener?

For the record I think we in the Twin Cities are very fortunate to have such a capable, well trained crop of meteorologists at NWS and on TV & radio. We're right far more often then wrong...and just letting people know the timing and general magnitude of snowfall has great value...even if the "inches" forecast is off a bit.

Also, I can be wrong as often as the next guy/gal, so I say this with a sense of great respect, humility and humor. I just find it fascinating to watch how different forecasters approach winter storms.

It seems even NWS forecasters can (and I would argue should!) have a healthy debate on how much snow will fall. Again, from the NWS PM dicsussion Thursday.

AFTER MUCH DEBATE...WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WITH EXCEPTION OF RUSK COUNTY IN FAR WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

On the plus side of the snow...this will be a high quality snow for winter enthusiasts in Minnesota...enjoy!

PH

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Metro lakes open: Friday snow

Posted at 5:38 PM on December 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Ice, Snow, Winter storms

Take a look at Lake Minnetonka today near the Weather Lab.

You can see the ice has formed in some of the protected bays, but it's still all open water on the main lake.

The view from St. Louis Bay on Lake Minnetonka at sunset Wednesday.

Wave action and a lack of clear calm nights with temps near zero have kept the big lakes open so far this season. It's not unusual to have some open water on December 1st on the bigger metro lakes, but I can remember many years in the 70s where we were skating and playing hockey as kids exactly where the above photo was taken on Thanksgiving weekend in the '70s.

Lake ice data from the Minnesota DNR and Freshwater Society founder Dick Gray shows that ice on Minnesota lakes is freezing about a week later and breaking up in spring about a week earlier on average than it did just 30 years ago. That's two weeks of extra open water on most Minnesota lakes. It also delays the dates that "safe ice" forms on our lakes early in the winter season.

Remember, you need at least 4" of ice to be considered safe for walking or ice fishing. We're just not there yet on lakes (and ponds!) around the metro, and in most of southern Minnesota. Since ice thickness can vary from spot to spot depending on springs and currents...there really is no "safe ice" according to some experts.

Take care on developing ice for a few more weeks. Next week looks cold enough to make some more ice around southern Minnesota.

Friday Clipper? (repost from AM...no changes in forecast thinking yet)

The forecast models are advertising the potential for our next snow maker Friday and Friday night. A clipper like system will slide east from Montana/Wyoming Friday, and will likely spread a shield of snow east as warm air tries to overrun our cold dome near the surface. It looks like all snow with this one...no pesky rain/snow line to deal with.

This colder system should feature a drier more powdery snow. The snow:water ratio could be 15:1 with this system...meaning it will take less water to pile up a few inches.

The forecast models are cranking out the potential for about .30" to .50" of liquid equivalent or so somewhere in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning. You can do the math to see that could be a "plowable" snow event. Somebody in southern Minnesota could see the potential for 3" to 6" with this system...but it's too early to say where (or if?) that may happen.

Models hint at potentially significant snow Friday for the metro.

The forecast tracks of clippers are notoriously fickle, and precip amounts otften too high in early model runs. I'll have to see a few more model runs to see if the system tracks further south. The models have a tendency to steer these systems south over time. If it does...that could spell the difference between placing the heavier snow band in the metro...or along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

The "meteorologically responsible" thing to do at this point is to alert for the possibility of snow...and leave the "inches" forecast until a few more model runs (hopefully) agree on the storm track and precip output.

Stay tuned, but be prepared for the possibility of slick travel and "shovelable" snow Friday PM (& PM rush hour!) into Saturday morning.

PH

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Happy meteorological winter! (More snow Friday?)

Posted at 8:33 AM on December 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Snow, Winter storms

Welcome to Decemberrrrrr.

Or as us weather geeks like to say, happy meteorological winter!

December 1st marks the start of meteorological winter or the three coldest months of the year in the northern hemisphere. (Dec-Jan-Feb) During December average temperatures drop about 10 degrees in Minnesota. In the Twin Cities, the average high is 32 today...22 by New Year's Eve. Average lows dip from 22 to 6! (Ouch!)

We see about 10 inches of snow on average in the Twin Cities during December, but of course that number can vary wildly from year to year. What's that old saying...there really is no average weather...just a bunch of random extremes?

The winter solstice occurs on December 21st at 5:38pm. This will feature the lowest sun angle and shortest daylight of the year...then the days get longer!

At least December usually gets sunnier. November is our cloudiest month of the year with just 39% of possible sunshine on average. In December that number climbs to 42%...January 53%. Skies get sunnier as cold dry arctic air tends to take hold. At least there's hope for brighter days ahead!

November 2010: Mild again

Temperatures in Twin Cities averaged +2.8 degrees in November. This marks 8 of the past 9 months dating back to our rare snowless March that temps have been above average in the metro and Minnesota.

We shoveled 9.8" of snow in November in the Twin Cities. That's almost dead on the November average, which is 10".

Heavy snowfall totals west of the metro on November 29 & 30.

Friday Clipper?

The forecast models are advertising the potential for our next snow maker Friday and Friday night. A clipper like system will slide east from Montana/Wyoming Friday, and will likely spread a shield of snow east as warm air tries to overrun our cold dome near the surface. It looks like all snow with this one...no pesky rain/snow line to deal with.

This colder system should feature a drier more powdery snow. The snow:water ratio could be 15:1 with this system...meaning it will take less water to pile up a few inches.

The forecast models are cranking out the potential for about .30" to .50" of liquid equivalent or so somewhere in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning. You can do the math to see that could be a "plowable" snow event. Somebody in southern Minnesota could see the potential for 3" to 6" with this system...but it's too early to say where (or if?) that may happen.

Models hint at potentially significant snow Friday for the metro.

The forecast tracks of clippers are notoriously fickle, and precip amounts otften too high in early model runs. I'll have to see a few more model runs to see if the system tracks further south. The models have a tendency to steer these systems south over time. If it does...that could spell the difference between placing the heavier snow band in the metro...or along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

The "meteorologically responsible" thing to do at this point is to alert for the possibility of snow...and leave the "inches" forecast until a few more model runs (hopefully) agree on the storm track and precip output.

Stay tuned, but be prepared for the possibility of slick travel and "shovelable" snow Friday PM (& PM rush hour!) into Saturday morning.

PH

Storm rages north; wind & cold kick in

Posted at 5:05 PM on November 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Tornadoes, Winter storms

A major winter storm is still hammering northern Minnesota. As cold backwash wraps around the back side of the storm, additional snow, wind and blowing snow will make for difficult travel well into Wednesday morning.

Highway 61 in Duluth tunnels looks slick.

Check out these snow totals and wind reports from northern Minnesota.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KNIFE RIVER 46.95N 91.78W
11/30/2010 M47.00 MPH LAKE MN MESONET

Pretty intense stuff in the Northland Tuesday at the storm's peak.

Red River Valley:

In the Red River Valley gusty winds are sending a drier powdery snow airborne. Blowing snow and reduced visibility is the result. Visibilities in Grand Forks have been near .50 miles in blowing snow.

Expect treacherous travel across most of northern Minnesota into early Wednesday as the storm finally begins to pull away to the east.

Lightning Strikes Twice: (or in this case tornadoes)

On the southern end of our winter storm, tornadoes skipped through parts of the deep south.

Monday, for the second time this year, tornadoes struck Yazoo City, Mississippi. The twister did significant damage.

Just this year an EF4 tornado hit Yazoo City on April 24th. That twister killed 4 people and injured dozens in Yazoo City. In total, 10 fatalities occurred along the 149-mile tornado track that day... with 700 homes heavily damaged or destroyed.

We'll enjoy a quieter but colder (December!) weather pattern the rest of this week. Highs will be in the 20s, lows teen south, near zero north. Temps may moderate to near 30 in the south Friday.

I'm keeping an eye on another potential snowmaker this weekend. More on that later.

Stay warm!

PH

Storm Backwash: Windy, colder, snow showers

Posted at 7:39 AM on November 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes, Snow, Winter storms

Update 7:42 am:

Next batch of snow showers rotating into metro now. Expect wind, cold and snow showers to continue this morning, and gradually taper this afternoon.

Still accumulating snow in Duluth and northeast Minnesota today. Expect another 1" to 3" in much of northen Minnesota today. Duluth has picked up 5.5" so far...still snowing heavily at times.

MNDOT traffic cam at I-94 & Co Road 81 in NW metro shows snow slicked highway Tuesday morning.

Snowfall totals range from 1" to 2" around most of the metro...with 4" on the high end in Cambridge in the far north.

I've recorded 1" of snow at the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven. More impressively...I picked up .61" of rain Monday!

Redwood Falls gets the coveted (cursed?) Golden Snow Shovel Award with 10"!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS SINCE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------- --------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0145 AM
5.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0200 AM
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0545 AM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0439 AM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0150 AM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM

Also Waconia 1.8" & Prior Lake 1.2"...

A rather disorganized low pressure system is still winding up early Tuesday, even though most of the moisture fell as rain in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The next phase of this storm system will be wind, cold, and wrap around snow showers. Expect occasional waves of snow through Tuesday morning as the cold backwash on the back side of the system kicks in.

Rain changed to snow at the Huttner Weather Lab near the east end of Lake Minnetonka at 11:20pm.

Expect some slick roadways, especially west and north of the greater Twin Cities Tuesday for AM rush.

Some areas (including parts of the metro) will still see 1" to 3" total snowfall accumulations with occasional snow showery bursts today.

Winds will increase from the west and northwest Tuesday, gusting to over 30 mph in much of Minnesota. This will cause some blowing snow in open areas that have seen accumulations. Wet spots will freeze as temperatures drop Tuesday.

Temperatures will drop through the 20s, and wind chills will dip to near zero in many locations as winter like weather regains a foothold.

Wind chills will dip below zero by Tuesday evening.

Because of the storms westerly track and abundant moisture, the system was still able to crank out some impressive rainfall amounts in the warm sector. There were also some decent snow totals in the colder air on the storm's west side.

Here are some rain and snow totals as of late Monday evening.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
914 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0645 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM
0.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0653 PM

Some snow totals form Duluth NWS:

0838 PM DULUTH M1.7 INCH OFFICIAL NWS TOTAL SO FAR.

1004 PM 5 N VIRGINIA M5.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER

Allow some extra time getting around Tuesday.

Odds & ends:

-Winter starts off with a bang in Duluth.

This month Duluth recorded the most consecutive days with snowfall in nerly 17 years! Details here.

-USA "lucks out" in busy 2010 hurricane season.

One of the busiest on record with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The USA escaped without a major land falling hurricane this year...remarkable considering the sheer number of storms. Favorable short term weather patterns steered one storm after another out to the open Atlantic.

An atmospheic "force field" seemed to steer storms away from the USA in 2010.

Details from NOAA here.

-Lakes getting warmer?

In the first comprehensive global survey of temperature trends in major lakes, NASA researchers determined Earth's largest lakes have warmed during the past 25 years in response to climate change.

Researchers Philipp Schneider and Simon Hook of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., used satellite data to measure the surface temperatures of 167 large lakes worldwide.

They reported an average warming rate of 0.45 degrees Celsius (0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, with some lakes warming as much as 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. The warming trend was global, and the greatest increases were in the mid- to high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Lake Tahoe. (Credit NASA/JPL)

The story from NASA's JPL here.

PH

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Evening Update: Rain-snow line crawls east

Posted at 5:13 PM on November 29, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Update 5:30pm:

Forecast still on track per discussions below. The rain will gradually change to snow from west to east tonight. I still think we're looking at a changeover sweeping across the metro around midnight...maybe around 10pm far west metro to after midnight far east.

This is mostly a rain event for the greater Twin Cities metro. Most of the moisture will be gone by the time rain changes to snow overnight.

Here are some rainfall totals as of 5:30pm.

Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven .61"

Flying Cloud in Eden Prairie: .46"

Lakeville .43"

The rain snow line is creeping closer to the metro. Snow reported at Hutchinson.

Sticking with snow totals for now. This will be a mostly rain event for the metro...with a little snow on the back side late tonight into Tuesday.

Tuesday AM rush may still be slick in the metro...and travel will be downright difficult as winds kick in in western and central Minnesota.

Here's the latest thinking on snow totals...pretty much the same as this morning's forecast.

Heaviest snow band: 6"+ on the high end. West central MN to north central MN. Includes Alexandria, Bemidji, Walker, east to Hinckley and near Duluth up to International Falls.

3" to 6" band from Willmar to St. Cloud to Mille Lacs.

1" to 3" range across the metro....maybe less east metro and south central Minnesota (Mankato, Owatonna, Northfield), just a coating. Best chance of 3" in the west and northwest metro.

Mostly rain Rochester and western Wisconsin.

NAM model keeps heaviest snow west and north of metro as expected.

Bottom line rain gradually changes to snow from west to east tonight...slick am rush Tuesday, especially west of the Twin Cities. Windy and much colder weather will follow Tuesday, with some blowing snow in open areas as temperatures fall into the teens and 20s!

More aafter the late model runs tonight.

PH

Update 3:40pm:

First wave of precip delievering rain to metro and south central Minnesota, snow to the west.

As of late PM the rain snow line is roughly from: International Falls-west of Brainerd-west of Willmar-New Ulm-Jackson.

It is generally snowing west of that zone...and rain to the east.

Snow now in:

REDWOOD FALLS LGT SNOW 29 27 92 NW13G20 29.58R FOG WCI 19
PIPESTONE SNOW 25 23 93 N15G24 29.57R VSB 1/2 WCI 12
WINDOM LGT SNOW 28 27 93 NW17 29.55R WCI 16
WORTHINGTON
TRACY LGT SNOW 26 24 91 NW18G25 29.58R WCI 12
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 26 24 91 NW17 29.57S VSB 3/4 WCI 13
STAPLES SNOW 34 34 100 CALM 29.58S VSB 1/2
MORRIS LGT SNOW 25 21 86 NW17 29.61S WCI 11
FERGUS FALLS LGT SNOW 27 27 100 NW12 29.63S VSB 1 WCI 16
PARK RAPIDS SNOW 33 31 92 CALM 29.58F VSB 1/2
BEMIDJI SNOW 34 34 100 NE3 29.61S VSB 1/2

Transition zone here:

JACKSON RAIN 36 34 93 N3 29.52F
LITTLE FALLS MIX PCPN 34 32 93 E6 29.59R
BRAINERD MIX PCPN 36 30 80 SE6 29.60R FOG

All rain to the east:

ST PAUL LGT RAIN 38 36 92 E9 29.62R FOG
CRYSTAL LGT RAIN 38 36 92 E6 29.59R FOG
BLAINE RAIN 37 36 93 E7 29.60F
EDEN PRAIRIE RAIN 38 36 92 E8 29.57F FOG
LAKEVILLE RAIN 34 34 100 E6 29.57F VSB 3/4
SOUTH ST PAUL LGT RAIN 39 37 93 SE3 29.60S
LAKE ELMO RAIN 36 34 93 E5 29.61R

ROCHESTER LGT RAIN 38 37 97 SE14 29.59F FOG
RED WING LGT RAIN 39 36 87 SE8 29.61S
STANTON LGT RAIN 40 37 89 E5 29.57F
DODGE CENTER RAIN 39 37 93 SE14 29.57F
WINONA RAIN 37 34 87 SE8 29.64F
AUSTIN LGT RAIN 37 37 100 SE13 29.55F
PRESTON LGT RAIN 40 37 91 SE8 29.61F

Forecast still looks on track as rain gradually changes to snow from west to east this evening and overnight.

PH

(9am post)

Here we go again!

The next in our series of early season winter storms is winding up in the southern plains and moving north toward Minnesota today. Like the past two, this one will feature another round of heavy wet, wind driven snow somewhere in central Minnesota, with the Twin Cities Metro on the infamous "rain/snow line" again.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Right now I am leaning on the lighter side of snowfall totals for the Twin Cities Metro, (generally 1" to 3" Tuesday) but that could change with model runs later today and tonight.

Here's the early look at the storm parameters and forecast model variables, and (hopefully) a practical look at what you can expect over the next 24-36 hours and beyond.

The warnings: Winter storm warnings are posted starting at 6pm this evening for most of western and central Minnesota, expanding into north central Minnesota. Winter weather advisories include the Twin Cities.

The storm: A deep upper low pressure trough in the Rockies is moving east into the Midwest Tuesday. At the surface, low pressure is developing in the southern plains today, and will move north into Iowa tonight.

The track: As usual, the surface low track is critical and will determine where the heavy snow band will lay out. Latest model trends track the surface low further west....from western Iowa Iowa tonight, through southeast Minnesota just southeast of the metro Tuesday... to western Lake Superior late tomorrow. This is usually a good track for heavy snow in central Minnesota...but "not so much" ifor the Twin Cities metro.

Temperature profile: Again, the low level temp profile will be the key to (especially metro) snowfall totals with this storm. With temps in the upper 30s to 40 today, it's warm enough to start precip as rain today into tonight.

Then the models differ a bit. The NAM wants to change precip over to snow sooner for thee metro...before midnight. The GFS keeps things rain until after midnight. Split the difference and we should see a gradual changeover form rain to snow from west to east around midnight to 3am in the metro.

If that timing works...we should see snow in time to grease up the AM rush tomorrow in the metro.

Snow totals: I'd like to see the evening model runs before I pin down metro snowfall totals, but here is my early thinking. Precip moves in this afternoon...as all rain for the metro. A mix of rain & snow in western Minnesota. Gradual changeover from west to east to all snow overnight. Snow (and wind!) in metro by AM rush Tuesday....peaking Tuesday AM...tapering off PM.

Again, a shift in the track of 50 miles east or west could mean the difference between an inch and 6" of snow for (especially the west) metro!

It looks like the heaviest snow band with this storm will lay out either side of a zone from Montevideo, Morris & Willmar to Alexandria, Brainerd, Grand Rapids, and International Falls. 6" to 12" could fall in these areas by Tuesday night.

Hutchinson, Litchfield, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs to Duluth: 3" to 6"+ by Tuesday evening.

Far Western Metro: (Waconia, Western Lake Minnetonka, Delano, Rockford) 2" to 5" by Tuesday evening. (more if the storm tracks east)

Central & Eastern Metro: (MSP, St. Paul) 1" to 3" by Tuesday evening. (Again, more if the storm tracks east)

Western Wisconsin (Menomonie & Eau Claire) Mostly rain with 1" or so on the back side of the storm.

The morning model runs have dropped metro snowfall totals quite a bit. The NAM dropped from 6" last night to under an inch this morning!

Morning model runs leaning toward lighter Metro snow totals Tuesday

Impacts: The biggest impact from the storm will be from western Minnesota (Morris, Alex) through north central Minnesota. (Brainerd, Grand Rapids, International Falls) Tuesday. Northwest winds will whip snow around Tuesday as the cold air pours in behind the storm. This may create near whiteout conditions in much of central Minnesota Tuesday! Travel will be very difficult along I-94 between the Twin Cities and Fargo Tuesday!

Bottom Line: Get set for rapidly changing winter weather conditions over the next 36 hours.

Stay tuned for updates (and potentially changing snow total forecasts) as we get new model runs in through tonight.

PH

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Embrace the season

Posted at 9:47 AM on November 26, 2010 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

If you want to take sides on debating cold and snow, it's best to take the side that embraces winter. You're in Minnesota after all.

Temperatures will moderate through the rest of the Holiday weekend. By Sunday afternoon temperatures are likely to creep above the thawing point in southern Minnesota. With shade temperatures climbing well into the thirties, expect the sensible temperature to feel quite nice if you catch some sunshine. Sunday is likely the best day in the coming week to put up outdoor holiday lights.

Looking to enjoy some fresh snowcover? There is plenty of snow in northeast Minnesota. Saturday should be a beauty to hit the trails and slopes.

Here's the snowfall observations from the pre-Thanksgiving event in northern Minnesota. The snow depth at International Falls this morning was thirteen inches, with twelve inches at Orr and nine inches at Duluth.
CE

From NWS Duluth Office.

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Happy Thanksgiving: First snow, now cold

Posted at 6:22 PM on November 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

**Climate Note: With temperatures in the mid 20s just after midnight this will likely not go down in the books as one of the top 10 coldest Thanksgiving Days on record. Daily weather records are for the 24 hour period form midnight to 11:59pm. So this year will likely go "in the books" as the coldest Thanksgiving in 5 years. (High of 21 in 2005) Cold comfort I know...as daytime temps will be only in the teens with bitter wind chills at or below zero.**

Year Month Day High Low precip snow snow depth

2005 11 24 21 11 0.00 0.0 0
2006 11 23 54 29 0.00 0.0 0
2007 11 22 29 16 T 0.2 T
2008 11 27 42 22 0.00 0.0 0
2009 11 26 36 27 0.00 0.0 0

Round #1 of our pre-Thanksgiving winter weather package is winding down with snow lingering in the North Country, and sliding into Wisconsin in the south.

So far the storm's "bark" has been worse than the "bite" in southern Minnesota, but a good shot of snow during PM rush did slow down the PM commute today.

As expected, some sleet mixed in today, and that reduced snow totals accordingly in the metro.

Here are some (relatively light) snowfall totals into the weather lab so far.

-Deephaven (west metro) 1.5"

-Bowles [Morrison Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.3 INCH at 04:10 PM CST --

As temperatures fall tonight watch out for icy spots on roadways.

Cold next:

The next phase of the storm features a cold shot of air courtesy of North Dakota. Thanksgiving Day highs may not stagger out of the teens! it could be the coldest Thanksgiving Day in 25 years...since 1985!

Look for the cold to linger into Black Friday, with sub-zero wind chills as you do the hunched over hustle into your favorite shopping mall.

The weather will moderate this weekend as temperatures make a push back to above 30 degrees by Sunday. Stay tuned to forecasts later on Sunday...there is another potential for some snow and mixed ice again late Sunday night and Monday. No rest for the weather weary in this crazy "anything goes" weather year of 2010!

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you who listen and follow the Updraft blog at MPR weather! I am grateful for your listenership, deep weather knowledge and interest.

We live in one of the greatest weather spots on the planet in the Upper Midwest, and I'm so grateful to have the opportunity to serve by forecasting, reporting and documenting some of the wildest (and best!) weather on the planet.

It's also an honor to work with some of the most talented people in the broadcast biz at MPR.

Safe travel to you & yours this holiday weekend!

PH

Update 4:30pm:

We're getting a pretty good shot of snow now in the (south & east) metro, with 1/2 mile visiblity in moderate snow at several locations.

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES SNOW 32 29 88 E7 29.72R VSB 1/2
ST PAUL SNOW 31 30 96 E5 29.74S VSB 1/2
CRYSTAL SNOW 31 29 92 E6 29.71F VSB 1/2
BLAINE LGT SNOW 30 28 93 E5 29.72F VSB 3/4
EDEN PRAIRIE SNOW 32 29 88 E5 29.69S VSB 1/2
LAKE ELMO LGT SNOW 30 28 93 E3 29.72F VSB 3/4

Look for another hour or two of moderate snow to favor the east and south metro.

Main metro roads and freeways mostly wet, but ramps and side roads are showing slick spots with snow tracks and icy accumulations along the edges.

Ramps at Lyndale & I-494 getting slick.

I- 494 & Highway 5 shows icy acumulation on the edges.

Snow is already beginning ot taper off in the west metro as the system pivots east. We've had a little over an inch at the Huttner Weather Lab today....but another half inch of sleet below the snow.

Expect a total of 1" to 3" of metro snow on top of today's sleet. I'll be the first to admit that this storm's bark is a bit worse than the bite...but travel is still tricky getting around through tonight.

Easy does it on the roads!

PH

Update 3:20pm:

A relatively narrow band of snow and ice is now arcing from northeast Minnesota, through the metro down past Rochester.

Metro close-up shows a mix of ice east....snow west.

Sleet mixing in in the east metro will take an inch or more off of snow totals.

The ice burst mixed in today will knock down snow amounts a bit...but it still looks plenty slick getting around through this evening.

MNDOT traffic cam at I-494 & Baker Road shows snow coming down.

Take some extra time this afternoon and evening!

PH

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Midday Update: Wind, snow & ice increasing

Posted at 10:35 AM on November 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Midday update

Snow and ice continue to increase and move east. The forecast seems pretty much on track, with travel conditions deteriorating from west to east this afternoon. A mixed bag of snow/sleet and some freezing rain moving through the metro from west to east from lunchtime into the PM hours.

MNDOT traffic cams are already showing snow, reduced visibility and slick travel in western Minnesota along I-94.

MNDOT traffic cam (at MP 37) along I-94 between Fargo and Fergus Falls.

-Latest road conditons from MNDOT
-Latest traffic cameras and pavement sensors from MNDOT

MNDOT travel map shows road conditions worsening in western Minnesota.

MNDOT weather & pavement senesors along I-94 east of Fargo showing road surfaces below freezing with icing underway.

Latest NAM 84 hour snowfall output reduces snow for the metro into the 1" to 2" (possibly 3" range north)

I still think the snow may be intense enough and last long enough to generate 2" to 4" for much of the metro by late tonight.

Prepare for slick travel this afternoon and tonight!

PH

Update 9:20 am:

Getting some snow and freezing rain reports now from western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. This confirms what we are seeing on radars....precip that was aloft is now reaching the ground.

Observations as of 9 am:

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

WHEATON SNOW 21 18 86 SE21G28 29.83S VSB 1/2 WCI 6
ORTONVILLE LGT SNOW 23 19 86 SE16 29.76F VSB 3/4 WCI 10
MADISON LGT SNOW 25 21 86 SE18 29.77F WCI 11
CANBY LGT SNOW 24 22 91 SE10 29.76F WCI 14
SIOUX FALLS FRZ DRZL 27 22 81 SE8 29.70R WCI 19

It looks like we're still on track for mostly snow (with some ice) to reach the Twin Cities around lunch time, and pick up in intensity after 2pm-3pm this afternoon.

The latest NAM model run (just in) spits out .23" liquid for the metro. That would be about 2.5" in the south metro...with a little more likey north. A 2" to 4" range still looks pretty good for most of the Twin Cities. Best chance of 2" south...best chance of 4" or 5" north suburbs.

Radars continue to light up west of the metro this morning.

There is still a good window for travel heading east from the metro until noon. Travel is becoming dicey by the minute heading west on I-94 as snow increases west of St. Cloud.

PH

Update 8:30am:

Radars beginning to light up with elevated precip west of a Redwood Falls-Willmar-St. Cloud line this morning. Most of this is virga (precip still aloft) and evaporating in dry air near the surface. Dew points are still in the teens early today near the ground, so it will take a few hours for the "top down" moistening process to get going.

Snow now reaching the ground west of Willmar.

Expect snow and sleet to reach ground level pretty much anytime now in west central Minnesota and spread slowly east toward the metro late morning or around lunch time.

There is still a window of good travel weather this morning from the Twin Cities north, south and east. If you're heading to Duluth, Green Bay, Madison, Chicago, or Des Moines and you can get going before 9am your should have pretty decent travel weather until noon...then all bets are off as precip moves in.

The peak of the storm (highest snow intensity) still looks to be between 2pm and 9pm tonight for most of Minnesota, lingering overnight into Thanksgiving Day in the north. Winds of 15 to 30 mph will be a factor when the snow gets going today.

Stay tuned for updates as precip shield increases west of the Twin Cities this morning.

PH

*****Orignal post near midnight*****

The timing could be better.

Our well advertised Thanksgiving week wintery weather blast moves in on one of the biggest travel days of the year for Minnesotans. While this may not fall into the "major winter storm" category for parts of Minnesota, the impact will be magnified by the timing. (Weekday, rush hour, day before Thanksgiving.)

Here's the latest thinking on storm timing and impacts from the latest batch of model runs, which are pretty consistent with previous forecasts overall.

Timing & precip type: It looks like a band of precip will develop Wednesday morning in western Minnesota, then expand and spread east (including the metro area) by late morning or lunchtime.

Precip is likely to begin as a mixed bag of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The latest models are trending toward mostly snow from the Twin Cities north...but a layer of warm air will mix in close enough to the metro that precip type could mix in (especially the SE) metro. It's just to close to call.

Nam model paints a NW-SE band of precip in Minnesota Wednesday PM.

Bottom line: Expect mostly snow...but precip could be mixed from the Twin Cities south. Regardless of precip type, the impact on roads may be the same...slicker by the hour Wednesday PM.

Modles range 2" to 4" of snow for the metro.
(click to enlarge)

The heaviest burst of snow appears to be slated for mid to late PM...roughly between 2pm and 7pm. PM rush in the metro looks like it will be quite a mess.

A dry slot may reduce (or end) snowfall & mixed precip from west to east between 7 and 10pm in the metro.

Snowfall totals: As usual, it's all about the freezing line and precip type when it comes to snowfall totals. The Twin Cities looks to be right on the razor's edge of the snow/sleet/freezing rain zone this time. As a result, there could be a significant range of snowfall totals from southeast to northwest across the metro.

I will stick with my overall forecast of between 2" and 5" totals through Thanksgiving Day as a wide range from south to north across the metro at this point until I see the morning model runs.

My gut? 2" to 3" in the heart of the metro...a little less south and a little more north. The best shot at 4-5" will come in the northern suburbs, the best shot at more ice & sleet and 1" of snow in the southeast metro. Rogers will likely see more snow that Rosemount, etc.

Also the snow may come in two phases...round one Wednesday, a break Wednesday night (dry slot) into Thursday, then some wrap around with the cold air (another 1/2 inch?) Thanksgving Day.

84 hour NAM GFS model snowfall totals. Heaviest snow favored north of the metro.

Northern Minnesota still looks to get the heaviest snowfall:

A band of 5" to 10" could fall anywhere north of a Fargo to Duluth line. Travel will be very difficult heading north Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day!

Northern Minnesota looks to get the heaviest totals form this storm.

Bottom line: expect travel conditions to deteriorate as the day wears on Wednesday, followed by a much colder shot of air with sub-zero wind chills Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.

Storm character: This will be a quick hitting storm of relatively short duration. The most intense part of the storm will be between 2pm and 8pm (metro), duration of about 6 hours. There could be a period of rather intense snowfall...or snow bursts within the system Wednesday afternoon or early evening. Thundersnow is possible in the intense bursts.

Strong winds (35mph+) on the back side of the system could whip snowfall into the air and produce a ground blizzard in the Red River Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning!

Get the latest NWS warnings & updates here:

-Twin Cities NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Red River Valley NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Sioux Falls NWS
-Des Moines NWS

And you can check Twin Cities radar here:

Stay tuned to the forecasts Wednesday as the system rolls into Minnesota...and be safe!

PH

PM Update: Metro ice & 2"- 5" snow; Heavy snow north

Posted at 4:30 PM on November 23, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Brief Update 4:30pm:

Models still on track with timing of precip late morning into early PM tomorrow as the system moves in from the southwest.

The wild card in this storm continues to be the location of the "freezing line" which will dictate areas of freezing rain and sleet...versus all snow. It looks like a shallow layer of above freezing air may set up near the metro Wednesday. This may be enough to mix precip to sleet and freezing rain, which will create an icy coating to go along with snow. It may also reduce snow amounts accordingly.

Again it appears the southern metro will be on the razor's edge for ice/sleet/snow.

Winter weather advisories have been posted for the metro and southern Minnesota.

Winter storm (and blizzard) watches and warnings are flying up north.

Winter weather warnings cover much of the norther USA and Rockies with this storm. Blizzard warnings are flying near Salt Lake City

Get the latest warnings here:

-Twin Cities NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Red River Valley NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Sioux Falls NWS
-Des Moines NWS

Bottom line, the roads and travel conditions will still deteriorate rapidly Wednesday PM & evening. If you leave the metro going east (Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Chicago) EARLY tomorrow AM, you may be able to beat the storm out of town. If you're headed west (Sioux Falls, Fargo, Omaha)...you'll drive right into things as they develop.

Also expect delays at MSP Airport to increase as the day wears on.

The next major model run is due in by 10pm tonight. I'll have another major update then...and hopefully more clarity on where the "ice zone" will set up.

PH

(Original post AM)

Call it a wintery Minnesota cocktail.

A winter storm system will plow into Minnesota Wednesday brining a mixed bag of snow and the potential for sleet and freezing rain to southern Minnesota. The system will make for difficult travel Wednesday, and colder air will spill in behind the storm on Thanksgiving Day and linger into Black Friday.

There are still a few details to be worked out, and maybe a few surprising twists in upcoming model runs today and tonight...but here is my early call for storm parameters and snowfall amounts.

Timing: Expect a band of snow, sleet and freezing rain to move into Minnesota Wednesday morning. The wintry blast should intensify and peak between noon and 8pm Wednesday, then taper off Wednesday evening.

NAM model paints precip area into Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Precip type: Latest model trends this morning are leaning toward mostly snow from the Twin Cities north. Ice may mix in at times from the metro south...and a significant ice storm is possible from the south metro down I-35 into northern Iowa, and east to Rochester and La Crosse. It should be all snow north of the metro.

NOAA SREF modles bring snow/freezing rain transition zone close to southern metro Wednesday.

Snowfall totals: The morning model runs are leaning toward mostly snow for the Twin Cities area and points north. That could squeeze out much of the forecast liquid precip total (NAM says .50" for metro) as snow. If it all comes down as snow, that could be around 5". If it mixes with freezing rain and sleet that will reduce snowfall accordingly. The storm should be a more potent snow producer for northern Minnesota where models are cranking out closer to an inch of liquid precip for Duluth.

Here is my call for snowfall amounts Wednesday. (Subject to change with additional modle data through tonight.)

Southern Minnesota: (Rochester I-90 & I-35 corridors)

A mixed bag of sleet, freezing rain and some snow. Ice storm possible along I-35 in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa east to La Crosse. Ice accumulations of .25"+ possible in some areas, followed by an inch of snow.

South Central MN: (Twin Cites Metro - Willmar)

Mostly snow with some ice mixed in at times. Heaviest "burst" of snow could be intense at times between noon and 8pm. Snow totals 2" to 4" with some possible 5" totals metro. Any transition to ice could reduce snow totals accordingly in the metro.

Morning NAM model run suggests 3.5" of metro snow Wednesday.

Central MN: (St. Cloud, Brainerd, Fargo-Moorhead)

All snow. 3" to 6" possible.

Northern MN: (Bemidji-International Falls-Ely-Duluth & North Shore)

All snow. 6" to 10" likely with some isolated 12" totals.

Models hinting at heavy snow totals for Duluth area.

Wind: Stiff SE winds of between 15 and 30 mph will whip the snow around at times Wednesday reducing visibility. I do not expect a full blown blizzard (sustained winds of 35mph) but the wind will be whipping the snow around pretty good with some drifting snow.

Storm character: This will be a quick hitting storm of relatively short duration. The most intense part of the storm will be bewteen noon and 8pm (metro), a duration of about 6-8 hours. There could be a period of rather intense snowfall...or snow bursts within the system Wednesday afternoon or early evening. Thundersnow is possible in the intense bursts.

Travel conditions: The best travel conditions will be through today, tonight and into early Wednesday. Travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly Wednesday afternoon, and poor travel conditions will linger into Thanksgiving morning as the wind and cold cranks up.

Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday: Frigid polar air will plunge in behind the storm Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. Expect sub zero chill levels until temps moderate into the 20s and 30s this weekend. Wrap arond snow showers will also linger Thanksgiving Day, especially in northern Minnesota.

Strong winds (35mph+) on the back side of the system could whip snowfall into the air and produce a ground blizzard in the Red River Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning!

Bottom line: This will be a quick hitting, hard hitting storm Wednesday, followed by wind and cold Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. Prepare accordingly!

More later today and tonight as new model data spills in.

PH

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Thanksgiving Storm: Biggest travel woes Wednesday

Posted at 6:50 PM on November 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow

What would the biggest travel week of the year be without a series of big winter storms?

A band of heavy snow blasted Eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota Monday. Fargo & Moorhead got whacked with 10"+, and totals well over 6" ran from the Red River Valley into International Falls. Orr picked up 8+" with Monday's storm. Travel will remain very tough in these areas into Tuesday morning.

Pre-Thanksgiving Storm?

There are still several questions surrounding a winter storm this week, but there are also a few things I think are coming into focus. Let's walk through the big travel week's weather and try to give you what useful information I can as you plan holiday travel.

What we think we know: (Likely scenarios...80%+ confidence)

-Tuesday will be the best travel weather day of the week in most of the Upper Midwest. If you can travel Tuesday...do it. Expect a mix of sun and clouds...mostly dry weather and temps in the 20s.

-Wednesday may be the worst travel day of the week, especially PM. A mixed bag of rain, freezing rain and snow may fall in the southern half of Minnesota (including the metro) with all snow likely in the northern half of Minnesota. Snow totals could be heavy with potentially 6"+ up north. **There is the potential for a significant ice event for the metro and central Minnesota Wednesday.**

NCEP SREF Model ensemble paints possible positions of 850 millibar (5,000feet) freezing line near Twin Cities Wednesday. This could mean freezing rain or rain instead of mostly snow for the metro.

-There will be a potent low pressure system moving through Wednesday and Thursday. The track, timing and temperature profile are subject to change so stay tuned for forecast changes as we head through the week.

-Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday will be windy and much colder! Highs may not climb out of the teens in much of Minnesota with blowing snow and below zero wind chills.

Lingering uncertainties:

There are still some major questions reagrding storm #3 this week.

-It appears the storm have a significant "dry slot" in Minnesota Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving Day. This may shut off or reduce precip for several hours...trimming potential snow amounts.

-Snow totals: It looks like the main shot of precip will come on the front side of the storm Wednesday. It should be mostly snow from St. Cloud north. It COULD be a mixed bag of freezing rain and snow in the metro, and potentially mostly rain to the south. If Wednesday's precip in the metro falls mostly as freezing rain...that will make for icy travel but reduce snow amounts accordingly.

84 hour NAM snowfall suggests lighter snow totals in metro, and maybe a foot inland fron the North Shore.

It is possible that the Twin Cities may escape heavy snowfall with this storm, and see mostly ice or even rain instead.

Metro temps near or above freezing Wednesday?

Models not cranking out heavy snow for the metro at this point.

The snowfall bull's eye with this storm appears to aimed at the northern half of Minnesota...where 6"+ snowfall totals are possible Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.

Bottom line:

-Expect the best travel Tuesday, Friday and Saturday this week. Expect the worst travel Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

-Travel will generally be better south and east (Madison, Chicago)...and generally be worse north and west. (Fargo, Brainerd, Iron Range & Duluth)

Stay tuned for more model runs and hopefully some more specific snow (and ice!) forecast totals Tuesday.

PH

Messy Monday: Iffy Thanksgiving storm

Posted at 8:49 AM on November 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Storms

Round #2 of our 3 round Thanksgiving week weather siege is underway.

A low pressure system zipping rapidly through Minnesota today is brining a mixed bag of freezing rain and snow to Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Roads are slick again with falling precip.

Once again a shallow layer of above freezing air has worked into the metro and southeast Minnesota. That means that the metro is seeing a mix of freezing rain and snow. As colder air eases in this afternoon, any precip should trend toward all snow in the metro by later in the day, before it ends tonight.

Low pressure sliding south of Minnesota brings a wintery mix today.

Snow totals should be on the lighter side in the metro, with heavier snows northwest. Here's th brief cut.

Twin Cities: Wintery mix. Freezing rain and snow. Snowfall around 1" or less.

Southeast Minnesota: Mostly freezing drizzle, untreated roads and walks will be icy. Freezing rain advisory.

Central, northwest & northeern Minnesota: (Including Fargo, Detroit Lakes, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Duluth.) Snow today with 2" to 4" in most areas.

The system should pull out this evening leading to a mostly dry day Tuesday.

Round #3: Iffy Thanksgiving storm.

There are still plenty of forecast questions surrounding a potential mid-week storm system for Minnesota. I'd love to tell you today how much snow will fall in the metro Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, but anyone who says they can put a number on that forecast yet is playing fast and loose with the weather facts.

Here's what we know...and what we don't know at this point.

What we (probably) know:

-Tuesday will likely be the best (pre-Thanksgiving) travel day this week.

-A strong low pressure system will wind up and head for Minnesota Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day

-The system will likely bring two distinct shots of precipitation...one Wednesday and one Thanksgiving Day.

-Colder air will follow the system Thursday and Friday, and temps will moderate Saturday and Sunday.

What we don't know:

There are still some huge "ifs" with Wednesday's weather maker.

-It looks like a wedge of warm air will surge north ahead of the storm Wednesday. This may come far enough north to change precip to freezing rain or just plain rain from the metro southeast Wednesday. We could potentially have another icing event with the first round of precip Wednesday from the metro south. If that happens snowfall amounts will be reduced accordingly.

There will be a better chance for all snow in the northern half of Minnesota.

-The system may develop a huge "dry slot" Wednesday night into Thursday. This could mean a wedge of dry air wraps into the system and shuts down precip for a few hours Wednesday night into early Thursday. If that happens, again, snowfall amounts for the metro could be reduced accordingly.

GFS model indicates "dry slot" over Minnesota late Wednesday night.

-The system may stretch out and track farther north. Some of the model runs are suggesting a more northward track by Thursday. If that happens, and wrap around snowfall on the system's back side may be focused in the northern half of Minnesota. That may mean the metro would see occasional snow showers Thanksgiving Day, and heavier snowfall totals would trend into northern Minnesota.

NAM model suggests heavier snowfall in northern Minnesota Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

-The eventual magnitude of the cold air behind the system is still in question for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. It is going to turn colder, but the duration of the cold snap should be brief...with temps moderating toward 30 by Saturday and into the 30s Sunday.

Temps may apporach freezing in the metro Wednesday leading to mixed precip types.
(click to enlarge)

-There are signs of potential snowfall Monday on the back side of the Thanksgiving weekend. Stay tuned for that one.

Bottom line...the Thanksgiving system is still uncertain at this time for track, thermal profile and precip type in the southern half of Minnesota. It looks more likely that the northern half of Minnesota could se the steadier heavier snowfall with this system.

Watch the slick roads and walkways today...and stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's system as successive model runs try to work out the kinks in the forecast.

PH

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Thanksgiving week forecast: Snow, then bitter cold!

Posted at 4:15 PM on November 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold, Snow

Get ready for a busy weather week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Our weather pattern is moving rapidly these days courtesy of the fast moving Polar Front Jet Stream overhead. Jet stream winds are roaring over Minnesota at 150mph+ these days, and the rapidly moving jet stream is zipping a series of weather systems through Minnesota in the next week.

The change will culminate with a deep polar vortex settling in over Minnesota by Thanksgiving Day, bringing the coldest weather in nearly 9 months to Minnesota.

Though I don't see any whopper snow totals like we had last weekend in Minnesota, the timing of the snow (during the work week and busy pre-Thanksgiving travel period) will mean a much greater impact for travel Thanksgiving week. Colder pavement temperatures will also mean MNDOT road chemicals won't work as well...so expect slippery roads as bouts of snow hitting frozen roads.

Let's break down the forecast (and snow chances) over the next week. Timing and magnitude could change by Monday!

Saturday: Sunshine early, fading sun PM as clouds move in. High 25. Chance of a shot of light snow (a quick 1"?) or freezing drizzle between 9pm and 3am Sunday morning. Roads could be slick late Saturday night.

Sunday: The mildest day of the next week! Light wintery mix to drizzle...milder. High near 40!

Monday: A shot of light snow possible midday and PM.
(another 1"-2"?) Could gum up the PM rush hour Monday. High near 32.

Tuesday: Possible (dry) break between systems. Colder. High 25.

Wednesday: Snow looks likely. Looks now like the biggest snow of the week. Early (too early?) look SUGGESTS a general snowfall range of between 2" and 5" in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This could gum up PM rush hour in the metro, pre-Thanksgiving road travel in the region, and possible cause some delays at MSP for air travel. High near 21.

GFS 5-day snowfall hinting at snow for Minnesota, with heaviest totals up north.

Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday: Full blown arctic outbreak! Snow should be gone, but bitter northwest winds will blast in the coldest air of the season. Roads could still be icy in spots.

Highs only in the teens south, single digits above zero north. Lows below zero north, zero to +5 south. Wind chills well below zero in all of Minnesota.

This is a bit early for an arctic outbreak in Minnesota, but not unprecedented by any means. If the high is 21 degrees Thanksgiving Day it will be the coldest in 5 years. If highs in the teens verify it could be the coldest Thanksgiving Day in 21 years, when the Thanksgiving Day high was just 18 degrees!

Saturday & Sunday: Lighter winds, some moderation in temps but it will still feel like February. Highs in the 20s, lows single digits above and below zero (north).

My winter "common sense" to do list just got bigger at the weather lab this weekend. You may want to consider the same.

-Check the air pressure in the car tires

-Get the winter survival kit in the car

-Stock up on sidewalk salt

-Get the holiday lights done this weekend (it will be too cold next weekend)

-Check the furnace filter (and smoke detector batteries) and replace if necessary

-Make a mental list of my older relatives & neighbors who may need help in the coming weeks

The good news is the long range models are hinting at a possible thaw around December 1st. We may not be done with some relatively milder weather just yet...but get ready for our first shot of real winter weather with "attention getting" cold to boot!

Enjoy the weekend!

More on Monday as we ramp up weather coverage on MPR news stations.

PH

Forecast: Snow next week?

Posted at 6:00 PM on November 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

"Don't shoot till you see the whites of its eyes."

One of my weather mentors is Denny Trettel. After WW II, Denny and John Murray founded a long time successful Chicago weather forecasting firm Murray & Trettel. Today it's called Weather Command, and led by another one of my excellent weather teachers, Tom Piazza.

Denny ran the operational forecast center at M/T for decades until his retirement. One of the things I love about Denny is that he applied a lot of common sense to the complicated science of meteorology, and to forecasting.

When snow events approach, Denny taught us to use the 48 hour rule. Back in the day, forecast models didn't really lock onto approaching weather systems until you were inside 48 hours. You didn't want to make "the call" on forecast snow totals for a storm until you were inside 48 hours.

Even with all the advances in numerical weather modeling in the past 20 years, that wisdom still holds today. It served us very again well during last weekend's whopper snow storm, when the computers only came into agreement on a pretty accurate scenario about 24 hours before the snow started flying.

That said...the medium range forecast models (specifically the GFS) is hinting at an emerging chance of our next notable snow late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

Denny would remind us that it's way too early to talk totals, but suffice to say we could get sideswiped by snow that could be shovelable and plowable, and maybe mess up a rush hour Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning of next week. It does NOT look like anything as heavy as last weekend's 6"-12"+ event right now.

GFS hints at at least some snow next week.

Modles hinting at "plowable snow" next week?

Another rule of forecasting (or maybe just an observation of mine) is that arctic outbreaks like to "pave the way" with at least some snow before the cold air rushes down form Canada. It is very rare to have a big arctic outbreak that is not preceded by at least an inch or so of snow.

In the mean time we will continue our "push-pull" weather pattern and alternate milder and cool days until the big arctic outbreak late next week. Milder Friday, cooler Saturday, milder again Sunday.

One thing that appears nearly certain (there are NO guarantees in weather!) is that arctic air will invade by Thanksgiving Day.

I'll keep an eye out for snow next week...and keep Denny's voice in the back of my mind as we watch the weather maps unfold.

PH

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Saturday's snow storm unique in many ways

Posted at 5:10 PM on November 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Snow

I spent the morning looking ahead at Thanksgiving week.

I find myself spending the afternoon looking back at last weekend's amazing snow storm.

10" of fresh snow coats the weather lab deck rail last Saturday.

Saturday's early season snow system was unique in several aspects. The Twin Cities NWS put out an excellent review here, but I think the system is worth another close look.

-From a thermal perspective it was a "Goldilocks Storm"...not too warm, not too cold...just right for generating heavy snow. Temperatures in the critical lowest mile of the atmosphere were just below freezing...perfect for generating big, rapidly accumulating snowflakes. (Stellar dendrites)

Morphology diagram shows snowflake types favored at different temperatures. Image courtesy of snowcrystals.com.
(Click to enlarge)

-The heavy snow band was remarkably narrow. In some places in northern Iowa the area accumulating 6" or more was only about 30 miles wide! Along I-90 in southern Minnesota the storm laid down only about an inch in Worthington and Albert Lea...and dumped around 10" in between at Fairmont.

Twin Cities NWS snowfall totals from Saturday's "narrow" snow band.

Even in the southeast Twin Cities metro area snowfall totals ranged from around an inch to over 6" in just a few miles.

Now you know why forecasters can get white knuckled about a mere 30 mile shift in the storm track!

-The storm was a classic "comma shape" system on the satellite loop. This is how you draw them up in the weather textbooks.

-The surface low track was ideal for heavy snow in the west metro. The low tracked from eastern Iowa into western Wisconsin Saturday.

-The storm generated significant lift or "upward vertical velocity" at its peak early Saturday. This caused small thunderstorms to develop near the storm's core, generating "thundersnow" or convective snow bursts. Snowfall rates reached 2" per hour early Saturday morning near the Twin Cities in these convective snow bands.

From a climatological standpoint, the storm packed rare potency for a pre-Thanksgiving system in Minnesota. (Data confirmed by Twin Cities NWS)

-Snowfall total of 8.0" was officially observed at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport

-Since 1997, this was only the third six inch or greater official snowfall in the Twin Cities during meteorological autumn (Sept-Nov)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE NOVEMBER 13TH WINTER STORM...

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED AS IT MOVED FROM CENTRAL IOWA EARLY ON THE
13TH TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY ON THE 14TH. THIS FAVORED
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND WAS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY
THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 3 WSW MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 1111 PM
11.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0700 AM
11.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1030 AM
11.00 1 SSW WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0400 PM
10.70 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0231 PM
10.40 WSW LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
10.40 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
10.10 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0102 PM
10.00 3 N FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0104 PM
10.00 SW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0216 PM
10.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0951 AM
10.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 1130 AM
10.00 AMBOY MN BLUE EARTH 0930 AM
9.60 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0700 AM
9.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0819 AM
9.50 VADNAIS HEIGHTS MN RAMSEY 0708 PM
9.50 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0258 PM
9.20 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 AM
9.20 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 0703 PM
9.20 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0703 PM
9.10 WACONIA MN CARVER 0700 AM
9.00 1 NE MINNESOTA LAKE MN BLUE EARTH 0953 PM
9.00 3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1243 PM
9.00 CHISAGO CITY MN CHISAGO 0301 PM
8.60 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0600 AM
8.60 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1025 AM
8.50 1 SE CHASKA MN CARVER 0148 PM
8.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0505 PM
8.40 1 SE HENDERSON MN LE SUEUR 0600 AM
8.30 5 SE ELK RIVER MN ANOKA 0148 PM
8.20 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0715 PM
8.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
8.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0703 PM
7.70 3 NW AFTON MN WASHINGTON 0726 AM
7.70 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0600 AM
7.30 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
7.20 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
7.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
6.70 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0703 PM
6.50 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 1024 AM
6.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
5.50 3 N QUAMBA MN KANABEC 0712 AM
5.00 1 E CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0205 PM
5.00 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
5.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0600 AM
4.80 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
4.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
4.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
3.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0712 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
3.00 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0600 AM
3.00 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 1111 PM
2.90 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0700 AM
2.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0813 AM
2.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
2.30 3 WNW LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0600 AM
2.10 SPRING VALLEY WI PIERCE 0800 AM
2.00 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
2.00 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0600 AM
2.00 2 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0600 AM
1.10 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0700 AM
1.10 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0700 AM
0.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1201 AM

GOES visible satellite shows the snow cover this weekend.

The "anything goes" year of 2010 continues to amaze and deal us weather records.

I can't wait to see what's left in the next 6 weeks!

PH

Winter kicks in: Black Friday cold wave?

Posted at 8:45 AM on November 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold, Snow

Welcome to Minnesota. Land of weather extremes.

Only here does the weather flip from balmy temps near 70 degrees to a foot of snow in less than a week. Now get set for the next chapter...our first arctic cold wave of the 2010-11 winter season.

Cold air is pooling in northern Canada these days. Temperatures have plunged to 20 below zero in north central Canada around the Arctic Circle. As the upper level winds buckle late next week all indications are that a surge of arctic air will plunge south straight toward Minnesota.

This will likely bring the season's coldest air mass so far, and the coldest temperatures since last February to Minnesota by Black Friday. We could feel bitter arctic winds and wind chill in the sub zero range by Thanksgiving weekend.

Snow first?

Arctic air masses like to "pave the way" with fresh snow cover.

The medium range forecast models are hinting at two potential snow chances for Minnesota in the next week or so.

The first wave may come as warm air pushes in over Minnesota Sunday. As the warm air pushes over a relatively colder air mass near the surface, it creates what we weather geeks like to call "overrunning." This may bring steady snow to northern Minnesota Sunday, while the metro and southern Minnesota basks in near 40 degree warmth.

The models are unclear on a potential snow chance Monday for southern Minnesota at this point.

The next (and bigger) chance for snow may come Thanksgiving Day. The models are spinning up a low near Chicago. If it happens that would put heavy snow across Wisconsin Thanksgiving Day, and could clip the southeast part of Minnesota... and maybe the metro. Stay tuned on that one.

The GFS model spins up a potent low near Chicago Thanksgiving Day. This track usually brings heavy snow to Wisconsin.

Here's the forecast as we head through the next week or so.

Today: Mixed sun & clouds. High 37 metro & south. Low 30s north.
Wind NW 5-15 mph. Colder tonight with low in the teens!

Thursday: Mostly sunny & colder. High 31 metro, 20s north. Light winds becoming south late. Steady to rising temps overnight.

Friday: Partly sunny, breezy & milder. Highs near 40 metro & south. 30s north.

Saturday: Chilly AM sun...clouds increase PM. High 35 south, 20s north.

Sunday: Milder. Chance of snow north. Partial sun south. Highs near 40 south, 30s north.

Thanksgiving Week Outlook:

Slight chance of snow Monday, better chance Thanksgiving Day for far eastern Minnesota. Major winter storm possible in Wisconisn. Turning MUCH colder. Highs by Friday in the teens south, single digits north. Sub-zero wind chills!

There are some signs temps may moderate the first week of December. Hang in there!

Surf's up in Ireland?

Check out the amazing video of surfers riding huge 40 foot "prowlers" off the coast of Ireland in a secret undisclosed location. Ireland, surf capitol of the world? Who knew?

PH

West Metro: Snow totals approach 1 foot! 2" to 4" more likely

Posted at 2:17 PM on November 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter storms

The west metro is in the heavy snow "bull's eye" for this storm.

Snow totals are approaching 1 foot now in the west metro. Here are some totals.

Eden Prairie 11"
New Hope 10.1"
Deephaven 10"
Amboy 10"
Forest Lake 10"
Minneapolis (NW side) 9"
Edina 9"
Prior Lake 9"
Bloomington 7.5"
Cambridge 6.5"
St Paul (Highland Park) 7"

A fresh 10" snowfall on the deck at the Huttner weather Lab at noon Saturday.

As expected the heaviest snow totals so far are in the west metro (6"-11"), with lower amounts in the far east metro (3"- 6").

Deck chairs sporting heavy Noevmber snow. Trees snapped under the weight of the snow in Deephaven.

A solid 10" on rainings, fences, trees and everything else.

Radar trends show "pivot point" east of metro:

Twin Cities radar loop this afternoon is showing the pivot point just east of the Twin Cities. This is the center of "spin" or axis around the low...and if it stays east of the metro snow will spin around the west side and keep snow going here. Snow bands will vary in intensity and spin through the metro and eastern Minnesota through tonight.

Snow intentisty will generally be lighter then the bursts of heavy wet flakes we saw this morning, but a few heavy snow bands may rotate through and drop visibility to around 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times.

Surface low tracks west:

At 1:30pm today the surface low pressure center is between Rochester and La Crosse. This is a little farther west than forecast. This may mix in a little rain in the far east and southest metro and along the St. Criox Valley...think Hudson, Afton, Hastings and Red Wing.

Surface plot shows low center spinning between Rochester and La Crosse.
(click for bigger image)

Temps above freezing:

I can tell you that roads in the west metro are VERY slick today. A mix of slush & compacted ice. Crews are out...but travel is very difficult. One thing working in our favor with this storm is that temperatures are just above freezing in most places.

Warm ground may have melted the first inch or two...but intense snowfall rates overnight overcame any surface melting in a hurry.

With lower snowfall rates and temps above freezing, most areas may see another 2" to 4" overnight.

PH

Forecast Update: Storm rolls in: 6" to 12" likely in metro

Posted at 12:10 AM on November 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter storms

Update 1am:

First snow of the season accumulates on the weather lab deck!

Preicp is likely to stay all snow in most of the metro...except the far east where it could still mix with rain and sleet at times Saturday.

Road conditions will be slick Saturday! Expcect slick roads...remember a winter storm warning is in effect!

Best bet at snow totals by Sunday night:

Possible Metro totals:

6"-12" Waconia-Lake Minnetonka-Maple Grove-Rogers-Elk River-Anoka.

4"-8" Prior Lake-Bloomington-Minneapolis-St. Paul-White-Bear Lake-Hugo.

2" to 5" Hastings- Cottage Grove-Hudson-Stillwater.

Possible Minnesota & Wisconsin totals:

6"-12" Fairmont-Mankato-west metro-Hinckley-Duluth.

4"-8" Owatonna-St. Paul-Grantsburg.

2"-5" Rochester-Red Wing-Rice Lake.

We still need to keep an eye on the potential for warm air wrapping into the system that COULD change snow over to rain in the metro Saturday. IF that happnes..it could reduce amounts accordingly.

-Twin Cities NWS

-Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT traffic cams

PH

Update 12:00am Saturday:

Storm Headlines:

-Rain snow mix moving into metro

-Radar "bright banding" indicates possible heavy snow band moving in

-MNDOT traffic cam confirms

-Late model runs support heavy snow event for metro

Check out the MNDOT traffic cam shot from I-35 and Co Rd. 60 south of the metro. Image shows heavier snow falling under doppler radar "bright band" moving into metro around midnight.

Twin Cities NEXRAD shows "bright bands" moving into metro and Rochester.

These brighter colors on doppler usually indicate higher reflectivity associated with big wet snowflakes.

Model runs support heavy snow:

The late night model runs support the idea of heavy snow (6" to 12" totals) in the metro by late Sunday. The rain snow line appears to be setting up in the far east metro Saturday.

1 1 1 qpf snow.bmp

Stay tuned for updates...and be safe and enjoy the snow!

PH

Update: 5:40pm:

Storm Headlines:

-Winter storm warnings flying now on a Fairmont-Mankato-West Metro-Hinckley line.

-Rain and snow spreading north overnight.

-Latest computer runs cranking out 6" to 12" of heavy wet wind-whipped snow Saturday and Sunday in winter storm area.

-Rain snow line progged to set up in east metro Saturday...could reduce snow amounts in east metro.

-Big snowfall range across Twin Cites with this storm. 6" to 12" possible west metro...4" to 8" possible central... 2" to 6" possible east...all rain in much of Wisconsin.

It's on.

The season's first major winter storm is winding up and moving into Minnesota. This is the time when we pull the trigger on making some snow call for winter storms. Like most Minnesota winter storms...this one still is not a slam dunk. The models have come into better agreement today....but a change in the rain snow line by 30 miles could mean the difference between mostly rain and a foot of heavy wet snow in the Twin Cities this weekend.

Here's the scenario.

The track:

The forecast track for the surface low is ideal for heavy snow for the western Twin Cities and central Minnesota.

Temperature:

The thermal profile for this storm sets up the "critical" 32-degree isothem in the lowest mile of the atmosphere right into the eastern metro for most of Saturday.

That should mean the infamous "rain/snow line" will wave over the east metro, and bring mixed and changeable precip. Expect rain/sleet/snow at times in the east metro Saturday...before enough cold air wraps in to change things over to all snow by Saturday night into Sunday morning.

NAM critical 850 millibar chart (5,000 feet) shows freezing line over the east metro Saturday.

Thundersnow?

There may be enough "upward vertical velocity" with the storm to produce thundersnow in or close to the metro late Saturday into Sunday morning. Snowbursts can occur...with brief snowfall rates of 1" to 2"+ per hour in thundersnow.

Expect rain/snow to move north into the metro between 9pm- midnight, and spread north overnight. Wind whipped snow should continue for much of the area Saturday...with all snow by Sunday.

Metro "meteogram" cranking out 4" to 8" snowfall for Twin Cities Airport. Totals could be higher in west metro...lower in the east metro by late Sunday.

Duluth meteogram cranking out potential 12" snowfall totals.

As they say in hurricane statements.... all preparations should be rushed to completion tonight in Minnesota.

Get ready for a wintery blast this weekend!

PH

Update 3:35pm:

Our first major winter storm of the season is winding up to the south tonight and moving north into Minnesota.

The latest model trends are coming together around a solution that puts heavy snow on a Fairmont-Mankato-Glencoe-Hutchinson-Annandale-Rogers line this weekend. On this track, the western metro (Waconia-Lake Minnetonka-Maple Grove-Elk River) may fall into the heavy snow band, which could produce 6" to 12" snowfall totals this weekend.

It looks like the thermal profile of this system will set up the rain snow line in the east metro, where precip may change phase between rain, sleet and snow. It could be all rain in most of western Wisconsin.

Stay tuned...more on the way!

PH

The morning and midday models runs are in, and it looks like a major winter storm is on the way for much of central Minnesota, possibly including the Twin Cities metro.

The model differences from yesterday seem to have (mostly) worked themselves out...and it looks like more snow than rain for most of Minnesota Saturday.

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for much of Minnesota for the possibility of heavy snow Saturday into Sunday.

The models are cranking out as much as 2" of liquid precipitation, and if that falls as all snow, it's going to be a huge pile of wind whipped snowfall.

NAM model cranking out 6" to 12" of heavy wet snow near the western metro this weekend.

Stay tuned for updates on MPR news 91.1FM this weekend, and watch Updraft for more details on the storm later today.

Bottom line: Get set for heavy snow tonight and Saturday into Sunday.

PH

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Weekend Snowcast: Still major model differences

Posted at 5:08 PM on November 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

The weather lab "crystal ball" is still a bit cloudy on the weekend forecast.

Thursday's model runs haven't solved anything when it comes to an accurate prediction for rain or snow in the metro this weekend.

The NAM model favors mostly rain well into Saturday, with a changeover to wet snow late Saturday into Sunday. This would push the heaviest snow band back to the west of the metro. If this scenario unfolds the heaviest snow band (possibly 5" to 10") could fall along a Worthington, Redwood Falls, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Grand Rapids line.

The Twin Cities and points south and east would see mostly rain, then a changeover to wet snow later Saturday. This would keep snow amounts down in the metro, and would be a "mostly rain" scenario for the metro.

84 hour NAM model snowfall paints heavy snow band into central Minnesota, with mostly rain for the metro.

Another model, the GFS, is leaning more heavily toward a rain snow line setting up on the east side of the metro. If this scenario plays out the western Twin Cities could fall within the heavy snow band and pick up a significant "plowable" snow starting Friday night and lasting into Sunday.

GFS model favors heavier snowfall from the metro northeast into northwest Wisconsin.

NOAA 3-day precip outlook painting heavy precip. Will it be rain or snow in the metro?

It's still too early to tell how this thing is going to play out this weekend regarding the rain snow line and resulting snowfall amounts.

I'll keep this pretty short today, not going to post a bunch of unrelated weather or climate stories for you to wade through from around the world. Let's keep our eye on the ball this weekend and stay focused on Minnesota's first big potential snow of the season.

Bottom line: If you are planning travel this weekend be ready for rain, snow, or both pretty much anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Stay tuned for forecast updates as the models roll in Friday.

PH

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Weekend storm likely to bring 1st snow

Posted at 9:12 AM on November 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

It had to happen sooner or later.

A low pressure system spinning up from the south will bring a mixed bag of cold rain and snow to Minnesota this weekend. The big question...how much will fall as rain vs. snow?

The system:

An upper level low pressure system is spinning through the desert southwest today, and will move into the southern plains and wind up a surface low Friday. The low will deepen and move north into Iowa and Wisconsin Saturday.

The precip shield:

Latest indications are the rain shield will spread slowly north Friday from Iowa into far southeast Minnesota. There are still significant model differences, but trends indicate the northern edge of the rain shield should move into the greater metro area late Friday night or in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Computer models are cranking out a potential .50" and 1" of precipitation for central Minnesota, through the metro and into western Wisconsin with this system.

NAM model cranks out .50" to near 1" precip near the metro by early Sunday.

Rain or snow?

The temperature profile with this storm will be the single biggest factor deciding who gets a cold rain...or a pile of heavy, wet, plowable snow and slush.

Right now it appears the critical 32 degree temperature threshold (or rain/snow line) will set up very close to the Twin Cities metro Saturday. This could mean mostly rain in the east metro, and mostly snow in the west metro Saturday, with a trend toward all snow by early Sunday morning.

NAM 850 millibar temp profile shows critical freezing line (rain/snow) very near the Twin Cities Saturday.

Some of the forecast models paint a relatively narrow band of heavy snow from near Fairmont, to Mankato into the far west metro toward Mora and Hinckley. Willmar and St. Cloud may also fall into the heavy snow area under this scenario.

If the rain/snow line sets up through the metro...there could be a HUGE difference in snowfall amounts. There may literally be an inch or less in the east metro....and maybe 5" to 10"+ just west of the Twin Cities.

NAM model snowfall paints a scary scenario of heavy snow just west of the metro by Sunday morning.

The bottom line is...be READY for wintery weather and poor travel conditions this weekend from the metro west and north.

We'll try and pin things down a bit late on Friday as we get another day's worth of model runs (which come in every 6 hours) to grab onto the system as it moves out of the southwest. A change in the rain snow line of 40 miles could mean the difference between mostly rain...and a pile of heavy wet snow in the metro!

Stay tuned....

A trend toward milder Minnesota Novembers?

Our recent warm spell has Minnesotans talking about the weather.

There is evidence of a distinct trend over the past decade toward milder weather during November in Minnesota. Check out these numbers.

-Wednesday's record high of 68 degrees in the metro was 25 degrees above average for the date. 68 is the average high in the metro for May 11th!

-November 2010 temperatures running +9.2 degrees through the first 10 days in the metro.

-The 4 consecutive days of 60 degree plus temperatures this month marks the 3rd latest (tie) date on record that such warmth has occurred.

-4 of the 6 latest (and longest) stretches of November warmth have occurred since 2001, including the past 3 years in a row. (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010.)

-Every November since 2004 has been warmer than average in the metro. Temperatures during that time have ranged from +1.5 to +9.6 degrees during November.

-Every November since 2004 has featured below average snowfall in the Twin Cities. November average snowfall in the metro is about 10". November metro snowfall has ranged from a trace to 5.1" during past 6 years.

Twin Cities AMS presents Minnesota Tornadoes 2010:

The Twin Cities chapter of the American Meteorological Society offers a presentation entitled "Minnesota Tornadoes of June 17, 2010: A Review and Discussion" this Friday evening at The University of St. Thomas in St Paul at 6:30pm.

The event is free and open to the public, and all are encouraged to attend.

PH

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Cold front now; Weekend snow?

Posted at 4:33 PM on November 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow

After another mild November day in record territory our weather is in change mode for the next few days.

The cold front sweeping through Minnesota is pushing in colder air overnight. Narrow bands of showers and maybe even a clap of thunder will slide through behind the front.

As colder air funnels into the region over the next few days, temperatures will return to normal levels for mid November. In case you are a little (pleasantly?) disoriented by the mild start to November (and who isn't?) our average high these days is around 42 degrees! This will likely be the last day we see temps in the upper 60s to near 70 until late March of April. (Ouch1)

Thursday will bring transition to breezy and cooler weather. Highs will still be above seasonal averages with 50 south and 40s north.

The computers are still fighting it out over the forecast for Friday and Saturday. A storm swinging up from the south will push a cold rain into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday into Saturday. The latest runs keep things warm enough for all rain Friday...but may mix in enough cold air to transition to some snow Saturday.

NAM model cranks out 1" of precip near the metro Saturday.

NAM 850 millibar map shows freezing (rain/snow) line very close to the metro Saturday.

It's too early to tell for sure, but there is the chance for accumulating snow Saturday in and close to the metro...especially just north & west. We could be talking about our first shovelable and plowable snow...maybe a few inches Satuday and Saturday night.

As we see in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

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Indian Summer weekend: Snow chance next week?

Posted at 5:30 PM on November 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

Get set for Indian Summer Minnesota style.

This weekend should feature the mildest weather for (possibly) the rest of the fall season. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above average this weekend in Minnesota. The average high this weekend in the Twin Cities is 45 degrees.

Here's the breakdown of the weekend forecast:

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy & milder. Highs mid 50s south, near 50 north. Wind S-SW 10-20 mph & gusty.

Sunday: Plenty of mild sun, less wind. Highs near 60 south, 50s north. Wind south 5-15 mph.

The mild weather looks like it will linger into Monday with highs again pushing 60 in southern Minnesota.

Chance of snow next week?

Forecast models are winding up a low pressure system in the southern plains next week. The models differ on track & timing, but there is a potential that parts of Minnesota could see snow next Thursday night into Friday. The thermal profile for the storm is still in question....in other words where will the freezing (or rain-snow) line be Thursday night and Friday morning.

GFS model cranking out precip for eastern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday.

It looks like the storm may begin as rain Thursday evening...with the potential to change to snow overnight somewhere in central Minnesota...possibly including the metro.

Stay tuned.

Forum: Minnesota Tornaodes 2010

Here's a great event for weather geeks next week. The Twin Cities Chapter of the AMS will present a forum on Minnesota's record breaking year in 2010. The event is at the University of St. Thomas next Friday evening at 6:30pm, and is open to the public.

Details here.

Enjoy the great weekend weather!

PH

Cold air lags: Lack of Canada snow cover

Posted at 8:42 AM on November 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Snow

It's November and finally a real Canadian air mass is surging south. But it's still above freezing and 10 degrees above average in most of Minnesota.

It seems Canadian cold fronts are just not what they used to be so far this fall.

A lack of snow cover over much of Canada so far this month may be the reason why our first November cold front features temperatures that are still at or above seasonal averages.

Air masses absorb and retain the properties of the regions they are born in and move over. Think of snow cover as a big block of ice...if you pass your hand over the top you can feel the cooler air. No snow, no cool air. Our air mass coming south from western Canada has travelled over bare ground on the trip to Minnesota.

If you travel northwest from Minnesota the ground is snow free for at least 1,000 miles.

A milder westerly air flow returns this weekend, and the lack of snow in the Upper Midwest will allow temperatures to recover more quickly than they might in other years. Hunters will enjoy mild conditions in the field this weekend, but will not have the benefit of "tracking snow."

East Coast swamped:

Low pressure east of Washington D.C. is dumping heavy rainfall to much of the eastern USA today. The space shuttle launch was scrubbed by bad weather today in Florida. Heavy rain is delaying flights in the northeast.

Tropical trouble for Haiti:

The Atlantic Hurricane season is not done just yet.

Tropical Storm Thomas may become Hurricane Thomas in the next 24 hours as it rakes Haiti through Friday. The storm will likely dump 5 to 10" (with isolated 15" totals) of unwelcome rainfall to the mountainous nation, which is still reeling from earthquake damage.

PH

Major fall storm: Rain, wind, snow, frost

Posted at 8:51 AM on October 25, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Snow

The thud you hear coming from the weather lab today is the sound of the other shoe dropping.

Our blissfully long stretch of mild October weather will come to an abrupt end this week as a major fall storm slams into the Upper Midwest. The storm will bring widespread rain and high winds, and possibly the first snowflakes and frost of the season for many Minnesotans.

The center of this huge storm is swirling into Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest today. This immense and intense weather system covers a lot of real estate, spawning everything from high surf warnings (30'-35' waves!) along the Oregon Coast to thunderstorms and a slight severe weather risk in Madison, Wisconsin later today.

Let's break down the effects for Minnesota.

Rain:

We'll start the week with some fog and misty drizzle today. Rain showers will increase from west to east across Minnesota today and tonight. The heavier, steadier rains will move in tonight into the first half of Tuesday. We may even have a few thunderstorms rumble through overnight into early Tuesday.

Showers will increase today on the milder side of the surface low winding up in the Dakotas.

It looks like a widespread, soaking rain, with many spots in Minnesota picking up 1"+ by the time the rain tapers off from west to east later Tuesday. Drought stricken northeast Minnesota could see the heaviest rain totals.

Wind:

We'll feel breezy southeast to south winds of 10-20 mph on the milder side of the storm today. Winds will diminish some as the center of low pressure slides over Minnesota tonight and early Tuesday. But as the storm wraps up and moves past Minnesota, brutally colder gale force (and tropical storm force) winds will howl in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday.

Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph will howl late Tuesday through Wednesday, and severe storm level gusts of 50 to 60 mph may rip across the state. What few leaves are left on the trees will be airborne by Tuesday evening.

High wind watches are in effect Tuesday and Wednesday, and will no doubt be upgraded to high winds warnings.

Cold & snow:

The storm will pull down the coldest air so far this fall season by Wednesday.

We'll enjoy one last mild day today with temps in the 60s even with clouds. If we get a few breaks (or even some thinning) in the clouds today temps may briefly jump into the upper 60s.

Temps will plunge from the 50s into the 40s Tuesday on the back side of the storm. By Wednesday 30s will be common, and it looks to be cold enough for (gasp!) snow showers in northern and central Minnesota. The good news is most of the moisture will have pulled east by the time the colder air arrives. There could be some slushy accumulations in the far north, but most of Minnesota will see flakes in the air and not on the (relatively mild) ground.

It is possible that the Twin Cities could see the first snow flakes of the season Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Frost:

The system pulls out Thursday leaving cold air in its wake. Look for the season's first frost (including the metro) Thursday and Friday morning. Temperatures could fall into the 28° to 32°F range early Thursday in the south, with lower 20s up north.

Enjoy the mild Monday...and get set for the first taste of real fall (and a wintery preview!) by mid week.

PH

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Rain, Snow and Doubleheaders

Posted at 3:00 PM on May 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Snow, Target Field