Updraft Category Archive: Hurricanes

AMS 2013: Hurricane Sandy Town Hall highlights

Posted at 1:25 PM on January 8, 2013 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Here's a quick post in between sessions from the floor of this week's 2013 AMS Annual extravaganza in Austin, TX.

Last night's Hurricane Sandy Town Hall meeting was a full house and ran overtime as you might expect.

Images: Paul Huttner - MPR News

A host of great presenters dissected the event...from the NHC's highly successful forecast tracks up to a week in advance generated by the European Model... to some possible "messaging failures" as the NHC dropped hurricane warnings as Sandy became "post tropical" near landfall.

Listening to just a few of the 3,000 experts here at AMS...it's amazing how many brilliant minds have dedicated entire careers to enhancing our understanding of weather. It's immensely humbling to be a (very) small part of this incredible profession we call "meteorology."

Here are a few quick notes from the session. My apologies for the lack of analysis....I have to be back in session at 1:30pm and giving my little talk on the Duluth Flood of 2012 later this afternoon.

Notes from Hurricane Sandy Town Hall:

Louis Ucellini NOAA

-Sandy's official NHC 5-Day forecast was remarkably accurate.
-Sandy was the 1st hurricane to have "blizzard warnings" attached!
-Sandy's peak storm surge coincided with high tide...increasing destructive surge to 11 feet in NYC area as she accelerated and came ashore at high tide.
-The storm produced the "surge of record" for Long Island, NYC and New Jersey.
-Sandy's storm surge was under forecast by 3 feet.
-The Euro model was far superior on Sandy's track beyond 84 hours.
-Sandy produced the first coordinated launch of weather balloons at non routine times of 06Z and 18Z in U.S. history.
-The GFS was the best performing model overall during the 2012 Hurricane Season. The 2 worst storms for the GFS in 2012 were Isaac & Sandy...both made landfall in the USA.

Rick Knabb - Director NHC

-NHC favored European (ECMWF) forecast track early on for Sandy over GFS.
-NOAA is very aware...and seems defensive about European models success over GFS (my observation...not a quote from Rick)
-NHC is wrestling with decision to drop hurricane warnings and transition to "post tropical" status for Sandy. (Again, my observation from talk)
-NHC working on proposal for future to keep hurricane warnings up when needed.

Melvyn Shapiro, NCAR

-Sandy was a remarkable "hybrid" system that combined both tropical and mid-latitude characteristics.
-Colder air and jet energy fed into Sandy just before landfall...causing a brief intensification at landfall.
-Sandy maintained a narrow "warm core" tropical center up to landfall as high as 200mb ...

Bryan Norcorss -The Weather Channel

-TWC was focused on clear and consistent "messaging" during Sandy
-So many local warnings....TWC came up with teir own descriptions like "high wind warnings" and "flood warnings" to cover variety of local NWS warning types.
-Norcross was stunned to have just finished NBC Nightly News with Brian Willimas...then hear NYC Mayor Bloomberg's statement indicating to New Yorkers that the storm did not appear to pose such a high threat due to cancellation of "Hurricane Warnings."

My take in discussions with Norcross....NWS did an excellent job with an accurate life-saving forecast for Sandy...but made serious "messaging errors" by dropping hurricane warnings at landfall.

Jason Samenow Capital Weather Gang

-Social media was an extremely effective tool during Sandy
-Tweets as far as 7-8 days out highlighted potential treat from Euro forecast track
-Tweets during the storm provided real time photos and accounts traditional news media could not gather due to storm conditions
-There were some erroneous tweets...like 3 feet of water on NYSE floor that had to be weeded out

I'd be interested to know what you think as Updraft readers.

How well do you think NHC handled Sandy's forecast track & early alerting?
Should they have kept "hurricane warnings" up longer?
As a weather consumer, what kind of "weather messaging" works best for you?

Thanks for any feedback!

PH

2012 Duluth Flood goes national; Why European model saw Sandy's path first

Posted at 4:55 PM on December 31, 2012 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

2012 Duluth Flood to be featured as one of the nation's top weather events at next week's national 2013 AMS Annual Meeting

Why did European Model (ECMWF) see Hurricane Sandy's path a full 3 days before USA models?

Sub zero start to the New Year 2013

10" ice thickness near shore in Excelsior Bay on Lake Minnetonka

Variable ice thickness as little as 5 to 6" in many lakes in southern Minnesota - still unsafe for cars & snowmobiles on many lakes

Top 5 weather stories of 2012

2012 ties for warmest year on record in Minnesota?

"January Thaw" in sight for next week - a shot at 40F+?

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Happy "Arctic" New Year!

2013 plays an arctic note to open the New Year.

Our 1st sub zero morning since February 21st (-5F) greets "Polar Plungers" in Excelsior and other other locations on New Year's Day.

I checked with organizers of the North American Pond Hockey Championships about ice thickness in Excelsior Bay Sunday. Steve Youngstedt tells me there is a good 10" of ice now.

By the end of this week's penetrating arctic cold that should increase to a good 12" to 14" in Excelsior Bay and smaller bays and ponds.

Keep in mind that the "main lake" and other southern Minnesota lakes have considerably less ice...and may not yet be safe for cars or snowmobiles in all areas. Ice is always thin near channels and points where water is flowing just underneath "dangerously" thin ice.

Image: MN DNR

The arctic chill eases Wednesday, and some light snow is possible as slightly milder air pushes in. Snowfall Wednesday should be under an inch in most areas.

Temps will recover into the 20s later this week, as we return to more "seasonable" cold levels.

Image NOAA/CPC

An early "January Thaw" in 2013?

The conventional wisdom usually includes a possible January Thaw along about the 3rd or 4th week of January. Our weather patterns have been anything but "conventional" the past few years.

All signs point to an early thaw in 2013. Both the European and GFS models shove a surge of milder Pacific air north into Minnesota by Friday...and then kick the thaw into high gear starting on Sunday. By next week temps could push into the 40s in southern Minnesota.

Image: Euro model from Norwegain Met Institute

38F on Sunday (GFS) and 41F+ next Wednesday? Don't rule it out.

Now where did I stash that bottle of windshield washer fluid?

2012: Tie for warmest year on record in Minnesota?

One of (if not the?) the biggest weather stories of 2012 has to be the record persistent warmth.

Now the Minnesota Climate Working Group estimates that 2012 will tie with 1931 as the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities.

Warm Year: 2012

2012 will finish in a tie with 1931 as the warmest year on record in the Twin Cities and will range from the warmest to third warmest on record depending on the location around the region.

For so long, it appeared like 2012 would be the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities, but then winter decided to arrive as if on cue on December 21 and since then temperatures have been mostly below normal. As a result, the average temperature for the Twin Cities for 2012 will wind up to be 50.8 degrees, the same as the 50.8 degrees recorded in 1931. The 1981-2010 average temperature for the year is 46.3 degrees so 2012 will finish 4.5 degrees above normal. Every month of 2012 was above normal except October which finished 1.4 degrees below normal. March 2012 was 15.5 degrees above normal and greatly assisted in lifting the average temperature for 2012.

The hottest day of 2012 in the Twin Cities was 102 degrees on July 6 and the coldest temperature of the year was -11 on January 19.

Twin Cities (1873-2012)

(1981-2010 normal: 46.3)

Hey 2013: 2012 called and says you better step it up if you want to get noticed.

2012 Duluth Flood gets a nod at 2013 Annual AMS Meeting

My partner in weather crime Craig Edwards highlighted the MN Climate Working Groups list of "Top 5" weather events in Minnesota published last week.

The Duluth Flood of 2012 is #2 on the list, but will be featured as one of the nation's highlighted weather events of 2012 during the 2013 AMS Annual Meeting "IMPACTS 2012" session next week.

I was asked by Climate Central's Andrew Freedman to speak about the "Great Duluth Flood of 2012" for the conference next week.

I will be reporting live for All Things Considered with Tom Crann from the 2013 AMS event in Austin, Texas next week.

Other major weather events of 2012 to be featured include:

-Hurricane Sandy with presentations and Town Hall Meeting from The Weather Channel's Bryan Norcross and Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow.

-Heat Waves & drought in the US during 2012

This is going to be a great week with some of the nation's top meteorology talent in the house. The Duluth Flood of 2012 is on the docket, and I'm looking forward to soaking up and reporting on the buzz from Austin next week.

Image: NASA Earth Observtory

Why the European model saw Hurricane Sandy first:

I first started working with the European (ECMWF) model in 1994 with Tom Skilling when I was the debut meteorologist with The WGN Morning News at WGN TV in Chicago. Tom had some unique ways to analyze the data, and you could see even back then that the ECMWF was a superior product.

The Euro is often the best model we have, which is why you see it used in this space often.

If you followed our coverage leading up to Hurricane Sandy, you know that I talked about growing concerns for the European Model's forecast path for Sandy into the Jersey shore as nearly a week in advance.

It turns out the "Euro" was right on the money from the start, and the other models including the NOAA's GFS played catch up all week.

Image: NOAA

Why did the Euro nail Sandy's path a full 2-4 days before the U.S. Models?

Better model physics and "initialization" and significantly more supercomputing power.

Scott K. Johnson from ars technica elaborates.

Seven days before Sandy made landfall in New Jersey, the atmospheric crystal ball was partly cloudy. The US National Weather Service forecast model showed a chance that Sandy might come ashore, but indicated that it was more likely the storm would spin off into the Atlantic. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, however, definitely pointed the storm ashore. It would be about three days before the US model totally converged on the Europeans' forecast.

Forecast models require some serious computational horsepower, which can only be supplied by supercomputers. The ECMWF, for example, utilizes an IBM system capable of over 600 teraflops that ranks among the most powerful in the world, and it's used specifically for medium-range models That, fundamentally, is the reason their model frequently outperforms the American one. The US National Weather Service's modeling center runs a diversity of short-, medium-, and long-term models, all on a much smaller supercomputer. The National Weather Service has to do more with less.

This computational bottleneck limits the US model in two key ways. First, it runs at a coarser spatial resolution (about 25 kilometers, as opposed to 15 in the ECMWF model). Anything in the atmosphere that takes place at a smaller scale has to be approximated. In general, finer resolution models can directly simulate more processes, especially once you reach the scale of an individual storm cell.

Second, the way in which measurements are fed into the models differs. The US model takes "snapshots" of data, builds a global picture (the initial conditions), and then begins the forecast simulation. The ECMWF model, on the other hand, takes continuous observations spanning half a day, runs the model with that real data, and then sets it loose on the future. While computationally expensive, this can result in more realistic initial conditions, and is part of the reason why the ECMWF model is usually reliable a couple days further into the future then the US model.

Now you know whay the inside joke in the weather biz is that NOAA's GFS model has earned the... "Good For Speculation" tag.

The bottom line here? NOAA needs a serious shot in the arm to invest in supercomputers that can match or exceed the ECMWF capability.

Want to keep cutting budgets for NOAA?

We may want to rethink critical funding for upgraded NOAA supercomputers if we want the capability to see a devastating hurricane heading our way...days sooner than we can today. What is an extra 3 days of preparation, evacuation and staging emergency infrastructure worth before the next 100 billion dollar weather disaster?

PH

Sandy may be 2nd costliest USA weather disaster; "December Thaw" ahead

Posted at 5:45 PM on November 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Twin Cities "Weather Window"
(Use green slider button for forecast hour, click lower right for full screen)

>

2.6" snowfall Tuesday in Duluth - NWS totals here

39F High temp at MSP Airport Tuesday at 3:13pm CST

5 days string of continuous sub-freezing temps in the metro since Thanksgiving PM

"Seasonable" temps through Friday (30s for highs)

December Thaw kicks in this weekend with 40s likely

50s possible in metro by Monday?

Mr. Cuomo said the recent storm would cost New York State nearly $42 billion, and he huddled in his Midtown office with the state's Congressional delegation, as well as Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and the Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester County executives, to strategize on lobbying Washington for financial assistance.

Superstorm Hurricane Sandy: 2nd costliest on record in USA?

Whatever we end up calling "Sandy" after all is said and done, she will be expensive.

With this week's estimate that Sandy may cost New York alone up to 42-billion, Sandy's final damage costs are skyrocketing.

With extensive devastation in New Jersey and Connecticut, It's now reasonable to estimate total damage costs from Sandy could reach the $80-billion mark... at least.

That would make Sandy the 2nd costliest U.S. weather disaster on record according to NOAA figures, 2nd only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

WxUnderground's Jeff Masters recently put together this list of the costliest U.S. weather disasters, before New York's damage claims rose to $42-billion.

As you can see, if Sandy hits the $80-billion mark she will move into 2nd place, behind only Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The top-ten list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is dominated by hurricanes and droughts. Three of the top five disasters are droughts. The numbers for Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 drought are preliminary numbers from media sources, and are not from NCDC.
Source: Jeff Masters with Paul Huttner edit

This week's NYT piece quotes New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo as he compares Sandy to Katrina.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, making a case for tens of billions of dollars in federal aid, declared on Monday that Hurricane Sandy had been "more impactful" than Hurricane Katrina, the deadly storm that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005.

Hurricane Sandy, which arrived in New Jersey and New York on Oct. 29, "affected many, many more people and places than Katrina," Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, told reporters at a news briefing. He said the comparison between the two hurricanes "puts this entire conversation, I believe, in focus."
-
Mr. Cuomo acknowledged that more people had been killed by Hurricane Katrina, but said that Hurricane Sandy had had a greater economic impact because of the dense population in the New York City area. He said Hurricane Sandy had destroyed or damaged more units of housing, affected more businesses and caused more customers to lose power.

Mr. Cuomo said he believed it would cost nearly $33 billion to pay for storm cleanup, including more than $15 billion in New York City, and an additional $9 billion to prepare for future storms. Aides to Mr. Bloomberg said he was expected to meet with House and Senate leaders on Wednesday.

Images: NOAA

Katrina vs. Sandy: Running the numbers

The Times also did a little truth squadding on the numbers for Katrina & Sandy.

Source: New York Times

What jumps out here is the amazing amount of damage Sandy....a "Category 1 post-tropical cyclone" did.

Because she hit the most populous area of the USA, Sandy knocked out power to more than twice as many homes as Category 4 Latrina....8 million vs. 3 million.

We won't know the total damage costs from Sandy for months, but it is starting to look like Sandy may move into the top few costliest USA weather disasters on record.

PH

Hot Turkey: Record warmth & 60s possible by Thanksgiving? Sandy's waves set records

Posted at 5:31 PM on November 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

51F high temp at MSP Wednesday

+9F vs. average in the metro and most of Minnesota

Weak cool front slides through Minnesota Thursday - temps back to the 40s

Image: Twin Cities NWS

50s return this weekend

60+ possible by Thanksgiving & Black Friday in the metro

59F record high at MSP Thanksgiving Day

55F record high at MSP on Black Friday

Twin Cities quick look forecast:

Mild and milder:

After flopping around a bit this week, the forecast models have now reached consensus on what may be another shot of record warmth for Minnesota on Thanksgiving 2012.

The latest European model and GFS runs advertise a major bubble of warmth surging north into Minnesota ahead of developing low pressure over the Rockies by Thanksgiving Day.

European (ECMWF) Model shows warm air surging north next week.
Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

If the latest runs pan out, southerly winds, sunshine and bare ground could combine to produce temps of at least 60 degrees in southern Minnesota including the metro by Thanksgiving Day and/or Black Friday. I would not be shocked to see temps well into the 60s...and even a stray 70+ degree temp in southern Minnesota by next Thursday or Friday.

59F is the official record at MSP next Thursday....and 55 on Friday. At this point both records appear to be in jeopardy of falling.

Let's see, 80 degrees on St. Patty's Day...and 60s on Thanksgiving. And we live where exactly? What a year.

The bigger question...Is this the new normal?

Coastal flooding in Mantoloking, N.J., from an Air National Guard helicopter.
Image Credit: New Jersey National Guard/Scott Anema.

Hurricane Sandy follow up # 352: Record 32 foot waves

The aftermath and post-mortem on Hurricane Sandy continues to astound.

Buoys of the New Jersey and New York show record wave heights as Sandy approached shore. Waves exceeded 32.5 feet at a buoy about 15 miles off the entrance to New York Harbor.

NASA visualization of the wind field associated with Hurricane Sandy as it approached the Mid-Atlantic coast on Oct. 28, 2012. This map was produced with data from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization's (ISRO) Oceansat-2. Wind speeds above 40 mph are yellow; above 50 mph are orange; and above 60 mph are dark red.
Image Credit: NASA

Climate Central's Andrew Freedman expands:

One of the buoys is located near the entrance to New York Harbor, about 15 nautical miles southeast of Breezy Point, N.Y., which sustained heavy damage from a merciless combination of coastal flooding and a fire that spread out of control. The harbor entrance buoy recorded a significant wave height of 32.5 feet at 8:50 pm on Oct. 29, beating the previous record set during Hurricane Irene by 6.5 feet! Records at that buoy extend only to 2008, which minimizes the historical significance of the record somewhat.

Significant wave height measures the average of the top third of the highest waves, which means that individual waves were actually higher than the 32.5-foot measurement.

The other buoy that set a significant wave height record is located 30 nautical miles south of Islip, Long Island, and during the evening of Oct. 29, the wave heights at that location built to a maximum height of 31 feet. That was the highest seen at that location since that buoy began operation in 1975, and exceeded the previous record of 30 feet, which was set during a fierce nor'easter on Dec. 11, 1992.

"BASED ON THE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED . . . IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH NATIONAL DATA BUOY LOCATIONS NEAREST SANDY HOOK . . . ACHIEVED A RECENT RECORD EXTREME SEA STATE ON TOP OF AND PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THE RECORD STORM TIDE AT SANDY HOOK. ONE CAN INFER FROM THE DATA THAT THESE WAVE HEIGHTS WERE THE LARGEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN THIS PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 1975," the Weather Service said.

These unprecedented wave heights hammered the New York & New Jersey Coasts on top of the 11+ foot storm surge in some areas. The incredible power of these waves plowing into homes is one reason there was so much devastation in Sandy's path.

What's in a name? Potentially billions of $ for homeowners in Sandy's path

Deep Throat once told a young hungry reporter named Bob Woodward..."Follow the money."

One thing many do not realize is that big money is on the line with "named storm deductibles" when it comes to the insurance industry and homeowners in the path of damaging storms.

Sandy lost her "named" hurricane status when she rammed ashore in New Jersey last month. That was good news for millions of residents because policy holders pay a lower deductable for "generic" storm damage vs. "named storm" damage.

Same storm....different name.

Some are concerned that NOAA may retroactively "rename" Sandy as a hurricane up to landfall; which could cost policy holders millions. One Senator is sounding alarm bells.

Again, the story from Andrew Freedman at Climate Central.

As Climate Central reported on Nov. 2, the storm status change has major implications for property owners who are filing insurance claims for storm damage, since most hurricane insurance policies have deductibles that would have been triggered if the storm still had been a named hurricane at the time of landfall, and if hurricane warnings were in effect.

New York Senator Chuck Schumer (D) is now seeking to ensure that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not retroactively label the storm a hurricane during the course of a storm review, since doing so would raise deductibles for millions of home and business owners. According to The Hill, Schumer sent a letter to NOAA requesting that the storm be labeled a tropical storm or some other classification, rather than a hurricane. The letter also went to insurance companies.

"Today, we've sent a letter to NOAA, the weather agency, as well as to the insurance companies that we're looking over their shoulder. We want NOAA to keep this classified as a tropical storm and to save homeowners in New York and Long Island thousands of dollars, and we don't want the insurance companies to play any games," Schumer said in a radio interview.

The deductibles typically range from 1-to-5 percent of the covered value of a home. So, if a home is insured for $300,000, and there is a deductible of 5 percent, the homeowner would have to pay $15,000 before getting back any money from their insurance company.

I've said many times that Hurricane Sandy did not end once the storm clouds cleared. Some may be feeling the effects from Sandy for years to come.

PH

Photos: How Hurricane Sandy's storm surge rearranged the Jersey Shore

Posted at 4:34 PM on November 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Sandy's Storm Surge: Deadly & destructive

We talk a lot about "storm surge" when hurricanes threaten. As much as we try and explain the dangers of storms surge, or the fact that most hurricane related deaths and damage come from surge driven waters...it's a hard concept to visualize.

Coastal flooding in Mantoloking, N.J., taken from an Air National Guard helicopter.
Credit: NJNG/Scott Anema.

The USGS released some remarkable "before & after" photos showing just how devastating Sandy's storm surge was along the Jersey Shore.

The link below each image provides a zoomable larger version where you can really see the detail of how Sandy's surge wiped out homes and breached shoreline defenses. If you ever think of buying coastal property or "riding out" a hurricane on the beach, it might be wise to study these photos closely before making such a decision.

Take a close look: All images courtesy USGS.

Hurricane Sandy

Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons - New Jersey

Hurricane Sandy's landfall affected the coastlines over a broad swath of mid-Atlantic and North-eastern states, including New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Breaching, overwash and erosion took place on many barrier islands, including some that are heavily populated and developed. The pre- and post-storm photos below were taken over a 200 km (125 miles) stretch of New Jersey shore. These locations represent a broad range of coastal configurations and their response to the storm. Pre-storm photos were acquired during a baseline survey May 21, 2009 and post-storm photos were acquired November 4-6, 2012.

Location 3: Oblique aerial photographs of Mantoloking, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and surge cut across the barrier island at Mantoloking, NJ, eroding a wide beach, destroying houses and roads, and depositing sand onto the island and into the back-bay. Construction crews with heavy machinery are seen clearing sand from roads and pushing sand seaward to build a wider beach and protective berm just days after the storm. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature.

Location 5: Oblique aerial photographs of Seaside Heights, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and surge destroyed the dunes and boardwalk, and deposited the sand on the island, covering roads. The red arrow points to a building that was washed off of its foundation and moved about a block away from its original location. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature.

Location 6: Oblique aerial photographs of Seaside Height Pier, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and surge eroded the beach and destroyed the seaward edge of the pier and deposited the roller coaster superstructure in the ocean. Sediment deposited on the island is visible in the background and indicates that overwash occurred here. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature.

Location 2: Oblique aerial photographs of Deal, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Large erosional scarps are visible in the low cliff, indicating likely overtopping of the rock shore protection structures. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature

Location 1: Oblique aerial photographs of Long Branch, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and currents removed sand from the beach exposing erosion control structures, including rock walls, concrete walls, and groins that protrude seaward perpendicular to the beach. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature

PH

Potential for overnight snowfall in northeast Minnesota

Posted at 6:16 AM on November 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Forecast models, Hurricanes, Snow

If you were writing a letter this weekend you would not have had much to share with regard to Minnesotan's favorite subject. Overall the weather was pretty drab.

There was some rainfall in southwest Minnesota yesterday, mainly southwest of the Minnesota River. Sioux Falls tallied a little more than a tenth of an inch. The amount of moisture in the Twin Cities metro was barely enough to measure.

Tonight brings a good chance for a mixture of rain and snow across central and northern Minnesota. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall from midnight to daybreak.

Breezy for Election Day

Brisk northwest winds will sweep into the western Minnesota Tuesday morning. Election day weather should be mostly dry but breezy, with temperatures on the chilly side.

Winds at noon CST on Tuesday. Source: NOAA/NWS

The bigger weather story we will be monitoring this week is the development of another strong low pressure system off the east coast on Wednesday. The models are strengthening this storm center as it skirts the seaboard Wednesday night and Thursday. Wind-whipped rain is likely in the hardest hit areas of New York from last week's hurricane.

Surface pressure for 7 a.m. EST Thursday.

This five day precipitation potential was posted by NOAA's Prediction Center on Sunday afternoon:

The forces of nature look to jet friskily toward the weekend in the central U.S. We'll be tracking the birth of a storm center on Friday and the impact it might have on the upper Midwest on the weekend. For now, it appears that there will be a surge of much warmer air from Iowa into southern Minnesota to induce thunderstorms on Saturday. More on this as the week progresses.

6 a.m. CST Saturday. Surface forecast chart. Source:NOAA

Craig Edwards

Did record Arctic Sea ice loss help steer Sandy to Jersey Coast?

Posted at 9:13 AM on November 1, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes

Unprecedented late October storm track from Hurricane Sandy this week

Only the 2nd Hurricane to ever hit New Jersey

"Blocking pattern" steered Sandy in unusual NW direction into Jersey Shore

Warmer arctic linked to more frequent jet stream blocking patterns

Record Arctic Sea Ice loss in 2012 may have enhanced blocking pattern this fall

Warmer waters caused Sandy's "intensity flare" just before landfall

Image: ABC6 News

What just happened? Connecting the dots

We've just witnessed a massive hurricane that did something no other tropical system has done in the past - Make a sharp left turn in the Atlantic and plow headfirst into New Jersey & New York in late October.

Here's why Sandy's track was unprecedented for a hurricane this late in the tropical season.

-Late October jet streams are usually well established far enough south that any northward moving Atlantic hurricanes are pushed eastward into the Atlantic by fast moving jet stream winds before they reach the East Coast.

-According to Jeff Masters of WxUndeground, Sandy is just the 2nd hurricane to ever hit the relatively protected (recessed) Jersey Coast. The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey was the "Vagabond Hurricane" in 1903, and that one hit in September when the jet stream is usually further north.

For nearly 2 weeks now I've talked and written about the unusual jet stream pattern that "sucked" sandy back to the NW and into the Jersey Shore.

Source: Climate Central

In weather geek speak we call these highly amplified jet stream patterns "blocking patterns" because they force the jet stream to meander into big north-south kinks and loops...instead of flowing more rapidly from west to east.

Blocking patterns have always formed in certain seasons, but tend to become less common in fall...only about 2% of the time vs. 6% in winter & spring.

There is a growing body of evidence that blocking patterns may be increasing as the Arctic warms. The blocking pattern this week over Greenland, combined with a "negatively tilted" (backwards leaning) low pressure trough over the eastern USA sucked Sandy back to the NW at the last minute into New Jersey, instead of shoving her out to sea.

This summer's record Arctic Sea ice loss may have played an important role in creating the unusual block that steered Sandy ashore. Here's how.

-The record loss of nearly 70% of the volume of Arctic Sea ice since 1979 created a warmer atmosphere over the Arctic this fall.

-That produced less "pole to equator" temperature contrast between the Arctic and lower latitudes.

-North to south temperature contrasts are what drive the jet stream

-The lower temperature contrast produced a weaker, more meandering jet stream for late October...and an unusually strong blocking pattern developed.

-The block created a kink in the jet stream that allowed Sandy to be sucked back to the NW into the Jersey Coast.

-Warmer than average ocean temps along the Gulf Stream caused Sandy to burst with an unusual "intensity flare" just off the Coast...delivering a stronger, more destructive storm at landfall.

Sandy's unprecedented storm track suggests climate change may be be affecting basic weather patterns in a way that's rewriting many of the things we used to call "Meteorology 101."

More research will undoubtedly be done to close the potential link between a warmer Arctic and Sandy's unprecedented path of destruction.

In the mean time, residents of the East Coast are less concerned with why Sandy hit, as they struggle to survive her devastating aftermath.

PH

Monster Storm Sandy slow to give up the ghost

Posted at 6:44 AM on October 31, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Hurricanes, Rainfall

Hurricane hybrid Sandy continues to spiral over the Great Lakes this morning, but the punches are inflicting much less pain. Winds continue to gust above 30 mph in Michigan and down the length of Lake Michigan.

NOAA Water Vapor Satellite image 6 a.m. CDT

Pressure pattern and wind field at 6 a.m. CDT. Source: NOAA SPC
Diffuse surface pressure center of the remains of Sandy was over Lake Ontario this morning.

A clean-up of epic proportions will continue for weeks along the east coast. As the temperatures trend down during the autumn season outdoor work will become more challenging. Photo journalists have done great job painting the picture of the devastation.

Here's a screen capture of the estimated rainfall during Monday and Monday night as the center of Sandy came on shore near Ocean City, NJ.

Source: Weather Underground

If you were looking for a small silver lining in this disaster, New York caught a small break when they were spared flooding rainfall as the storm surge swamped the city.

Here's a story I archived following the October snow storm in the northeast last year. You may wish to connect the dots to Sandy. Some stories during this weeks storm referenced the Storm of 1821. In some ways, mega storms are not anything new. One meteorologist commented, "New York was due."

We'll be tracking a weather maker coming out of the Pacific Northwest later today. Seattle is under the gun for potentially flooding rains in the next 35 hours.

Seattle radar at 650 a.m. CDT Source: NOAA/Weather Underground

Five day precipitation potential. Source: NOAA/NWS

Halloween trick or treat weather is pretty much made to order. Youngsters heading out just after dark will find temperatures quite tolerable.

For those tracking the monthly temperature trend in the Twin Cities, October 2012 will be the first month with the average temperature below normal since May 2011. We'll end up a little more than one degree below normal.

Craig Edwards

Historic storm effects continue today; Wind, waves, rain & snow

Posted at 9:08 AM on October 30, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Light of day reveals massive damage in New York City & New Jersey

"War Zone" Queens residents describing effects from Sandy as waters rose in homes and fires swept through more than 80 homes.

Mapping the damage: Useful BBC map of damage in NYC

Power flash: Explosions at NYC power station innundated by floodwaters

Historic flood damage to NYC infrastructure: Statement from MTA Chairman Joseph J. Lhota on Service Recovery

The New York City subway system is 108 years old, but it has never faced a disaster as devastating as what we experienced last night. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on our entire transportation system, in every borough and county of the region. It has brought down trees, ripped out power and inundated tunnels, rail yards and bus depots. As of last night, seven subway tunnels under the East River flooded. Metro-North Railroad lost power from 59th Street to Croton-Harmon on the Hudson Line and to New Haven on the New Haven Line. The Long Island Rail Road evacuated its West Side Yards and suffered flooding in one East River tunnel. The Hugh L. Carey Tunnel is flooded from end to end and the Queens Midtown Tunnel also took on water and was closed. Six bus garages were disabled by high water. We are assessing the extent of the damage and beginning the process of recovery. Our employees have shown remarkable dedication over the past few days, and I thank them on behalf of every New Yorker. In 108 years, our employees have never faced a challenge like the one that confronts us now. All of us at the MTA are committed to restoring the system as quickly as we can to help bring New York back to normal.

Surreal sights in NYC last night.

Underwater: Entire towns in New Jersey inundated by surge & flooding... underwater last night into this morning

In the dark: Over 8 million without power (and counting)

2.4 million without power in New Jersey alone

Major damage on each of New Jersey's major rail lines

"Unprecedented devastation" along the Jersey Shore according to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Sandy's barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC.

New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy's 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88' at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2' water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.

WxUnderground's Jeff Masters on Sandy

Record Storm:

Sandy set numerous records, here are some of then via WxUndergrounds Jeff Masters.

Pressure:

Sandy's impact has been so severe over such a wide area that it is difficult to adequately document the event. I'll start with some of the major cities that set all-time low pressure records during Sandy, with the new record followed by the old record and date of occurrence (thanks go to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt for putting this list together):

Atlantic City, NJ: 28.01"/948mb 28.37"/961mb 3/6/1932

Philadelphia, PA: 28.23"/956mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Scranton, PA: 28.69"/971mb 28.72"/973mb 2/25/1965

Trenton, NJ: 28.31"/958mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Baltimore, MD: 28.49"/965mb 28.68"/971mb 3/3/1932

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Remnants of Sandy rage on today:

Hurricane Sandy may be done, but the storm formerly known as Sandy rages on today. Here are some of the bigger effects today.

Wind & rain: The center of circulation is swirling over Pennsylvania today.

Sandy is still packing wind gusts to 30+ mph all the way from Canada, to Chicago, to the mountains of West Virginia and North Carolina.

Blizzard:

Heavy snow rages in West Virginia and along the Appalachian Chain today. Snowfall totals so far exceed 15" in several areas, and totals will push 2 to 4 feet by the time the storm winds down Halloween night.

Snow is also falling in parts of Ohio today.

Gale Warnings & huge waves on Lake Michigan & other Great Lakes:

Gale Warnings and Lakeshore Flood Warnings are flying for the southern end of Lake Michigan, including Chicago's lakefront.

Winds gusted to 51 mph this morning at Gary, Indiana on the southern edge of Lake Michigan.

Waves from 20 to 25 feet, and as high as 33 feet are forecast for Lake Michigan.

The force of the wind will push a wall of water known as a "sieche" into the south shores of the lake as the wind runs down the full fetch.

Slow wind down:

Sandy will continue to spin over the eastern half of the USA through tomorrow, and then slowly slide north into Canada.

Billions, with a "B"

With so many communities under water today it's not a question of if this will be our next "billion dollar" weather disaster, but how many billons in damage will ultimately occur. Irene produced 15.8 billion last year. Wide ranging estimates for Sandy so far are anywhere between 20 and 100 billion dollars.

The bigger measure of Sandy will be the memories and the effects that will last for years, as damaged infrastructure is rebuilt.

Perfect storm, perfect forecast?

It should be said that Sandy may be one of the best forecast storms in history. The NHC and meteorologists across the country can count this as a major victory for giving unprecedented notice and warning for the storm up to a week in advance. Because of the extensive damage and loss of life, it's a hollow victory.

We may never know how many lives and how much property was saved because of the excellent forecasts and warnings leading up to Sandy.

This was an historic storm that had no precedent to draw on from a meteorological standpoint.

As bad as it is, loss of life from Sandy could have been a lot worse.

PH

Sandy still packs wind, rain & snow; Damage will take days to fully assess

Posted at 11:48 PM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Landfall Sandy made landfall Monday evening near Atlantic City, NJ

Record storm surge flooding & damaging wind gusts

ABC Action 6 News

From New Jersey to NYC, Sandy's powerful storm surge reached record levels.

50% of Hoboken, NJ is "under water" as of early Monday AM according to the Mayor.

Details on a few of Sandy's impacts from NHC:

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM TIDE HEIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...OF 13.3 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK...13.7 FEET AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK...AND 13.3 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

A WIND GUST TO 79 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ISLIP NEW YORK.

New York City Disaster:

Unfortunately, Hurricane Sandy was every bit as bad as meteorologists advertised.

The record storm surge in New York has inundated major parts of the city.

Streets, power plants, subways and commuter tunnels under water. Much of lower Manhattan plunged into darkness as explosions rock a power station.

It will take much of Tuesday and maybe much longer than that to fully assess the damage, and begin to understand the impact and longer term consequences of this historic storm.

6 million (and counting) are without power that will take many days to restore.

800,000+ without power on Long Island alone

Storm sinks HMS Bounty: Dramatic Coast Guard rescue

The storm took the HMS Bounty 90 miles off the Carolina Coast Monday.

Here are the amazing details and rescue video from the U.S. Coast Guard.

In the first major U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue operation associated with Hurricane Sandy, the Coast Guard has rescued 14 people from life rafts in the Atlantic Ocean approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras, N.C. The search continues for two people who remain missing from the crew of HMS Bounty.

The owner of the 180-foot, three-mast tall ship HMS Bounty, a replica of the original British transport vessel built for the 1962 film "Mutiny on the Bounty" starring Marlon Brando, contacted Coast Guard Sector North Carolina after losing communication with the crew late Sunday evening. The 5th Coast Guard District command center in Portsmouth, Va., subsequently received a signal from the emergency distress position indicating radio beacon, or EPIRB, registered to the Bounty confirming the distress and position.

Records fall:

It will take a while to get final numbers, but Sandy appears to have set many storm related records including:

940 millibars Lowest observed barometer for any storm North of the Carolinas

13.88 feet storm surge driven record water level at Battery Park in NYC

Unprecedented track and intensification for a storm so late in season

Hurricane done, Sandy not:

Sandy is not over. The major coastal surge and flooding will ease, but the giant swirl of wind, rain and snow will continue to cause some damage Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.

Image: http://hint.fm/wind/

- Blizzard Warnings with 3 to 4 foot snowfall totals will rage Tuesday in the Appalachians.

-Gale Warnings and Lakeshore Flood Warnings continue for Chicago and the southern end of Lake Michigan for waves as high as 33 feet. A major "sieche" will drive water to the south end of the lake.

-Lakeshore Flood Warnings are also flying for northern Ohio.

Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 mph will cover much of the NE USA Tuesday.

The slowly weakening storm will linger in the northeast through Halloween.

Stay tuned as we see what Sandy has in store Tuesday...and beyond.

PH

Slow motion weather disaster in progress; NYC storm surge record; Water in tunnels now

Posted at 7:46 PM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Anatomy of a slow motion weather disaster.

NYC Battery storm surge falling now from peak of 13.88 feet, but damage is already done and flooding continues.

NYC NWS storm report: WATER 3FT DEEP IN 4 NEW YORK PLAZA AND 6FT DEEP OUTSIDE.

Floodwaters pour into train station.
Photo from a security cam in a Hoboken, NJ transit station.

NYC Battery surge still rising from 13.85 feet. (9:06PM EDT)

Water in tunnels now. Slow motion weather disaster unfolding in NYC.

Floodwaters enter Hugh L. Carey Tunnel

Photo: MTA Bridges and Tunnels

Next: Waves

And now the waves. Waves in NYC Harbor will increase next few hours as winds turn more SE as Sandy's center moves by.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

0610 PM 10/29/2012 NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK, NY M94 MPH MESONET

90 mph Hurricane Sandy maintains 90 mph sustained winds as of 5pm EDT update

80 mph gusts now along the Jersey Coast

Racing NW at 28 mph Sandy sped up today and is racing onshore this evening EDT

"Condition critical" in NYC next 6 hours as rising surge and high tide will spike water levels

10-12 foot storm surge likely tonight for Battery Park in NYC

8:53pm EDT next high tide in NYC area

Massive storm effects as far west as Chicago on Lake Michigan

Sandy races inland:

Sandy picked up speed today and raced toward the Jersey Coast.

It's important not to focus too much on landfall due to the widespread damaging winds and effects from Sandy, but she will come ashore early this evening RDT in southern New Jersey or as the center skirts the Delaware Bay.

81 mph winds have been recorded as far away as Massachusetts.

Worst to come after landfall:

As Sandy moves ashore, the winds along the Jersey Coast north toward New York City will shift direction, and blow more from the south. That will push the storm surge...the huge bubble of water into New York Harbor around the full moon high tide tonight.

This is the nightmare scenario many of us meteorologists have worried about for decades, and tonight will severally test flood protection in the city of New York.

Huge storm:

Sandy literally covers the eastern half of the USA. Tropical storm force winds over 40 mph winds extend 485 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds are reported as far north as Massachusetts.

HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

Appalachain Mountain "Blizzicane"

Blizzard warnings are in effect for 1 to 3 feet of snow and high winds as freezing air feeds into the western side of Sandy.

Lake Michigan "Sieche" ahead:

As Sandy moves west Tuesday 50 to 60 mph winds will funnel down the entire length of Lake Michigan from the NNE.

That strong push of water will create a sieche on the long lake fetch, and water will pile up with coastal flooding in Chicago and the south end of Lake Michigan in northern Indiana.

You can think of a sieche as what happens when you push the water in a bathtub to one end, it rises dramatically on the other side.

Widespread damage: Damage reports from wind and flooding are to numerous to print here...here's a link the NYC NWS storm reports.

Bottom line: Damage will increase tonight and last 2-3 more days as Sandy moves ashore and slows down over the northeast. Effects will be felt from Canada to Georgia and as far west as Lake Michigan and Chicago. Waves may even begin to build on Lake Superior near Duluth as NE winds reach 10-20 mph Tuesday.

PH

Hurricane Sandy intensifies over 80F Gulf Stream, races toward Jersey Shore

Posted at 11:07 AM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

943 millibars Sandy's central pressure on NHC 11 AM EDT update

Record lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane north of the Carolinas

90 mph winds Sandy has intensified today to a strong Category 1 hurricane

63 mph wind gust on Long Island at Eaton's Neck, NY

90 mph gusts expected along Jersey Coast tonight

8:53pm EDT Next high tide in New York Harbor

+4 feet Water levels in New York already running 4 feet above predicted level

6 to 11 foot storm surge expected in NYC area at high tide tonight as Sandy nears landfall

7pm to 11pm EDT tonight highest risk for severe storm surge flooding in New York City from Sandy

175 miles distance hurricane force winds extend from Sandy's center

485 miles distance tropical storm force winds (39 mph+) extend from center

50 to 60 mph winds and 25 foot waves...expected on Lake Michigan

Sandy shows intensity "flare"

As Sandy passed over a warm ribbon of water near 80F in the Gulf stream this morning, we see a significant "flare" of intensity in the storms central dense overcast.

Sandy is now a massive well organized storm with a nasty and well defined center. The IR loop even shows signs that Sandy has once again attempted to develop an eye.

Details from the 11 am EDT NHC discussion.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND 27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE.

At 90 mph, Sandy is a strong Category 1 storm. With an incredible central pressure of 943 millibars, Sandy has deepened significantly. 943 millibars is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Since Sandy is no longer purely a hurricane and is transitioning to extra tropical, we can see this kind of pressure...without associated Cat 4 wind speeds.

Still Sandy is a very dangerous storm, and the worst effects still lie ahead in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Sandy will make landfall on the Jersey Coast late tonight.

PH

Sandy turns toward shore; Storm surge building; Landfall late tonight

Posted at 8:37 AM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Sandy Headlines:

85 mph sustained winds with Category 1 Hurricane Sandy

946 millibars central pressure equivalent of a Category 3 storm

250 miles SE of Atlantic City, New Jersey

Moving NW at 20 mph now - Sandy has made the long anticipated turn to the NW

Landfall late tonight along south Jersey Coast

Coastal & urban flooding already reported in New Jersey

51 mph wind gusts at JFK in New York this morning

8.83 feet water level already this morning at Battery Park, NYC (a full 3 feet higher than predicted level)

20 foot waves just offshore of Long Island this morning

8:53PM EDT High tide at NYC tonight

2 missing & 14 rescued as the HMS Bounty sinks this morning of NC Coast

Hurricane Sandy turns toward the Coast:

The long awaited turn toward the northwest has occurred.

Surge and waves form Sandy are already pounding the coast with more than 12 hours to go until landfall.

Pressure is still falling and winds increasing according to aircraft samples within the storm.

New York City is looking extremely vulnerable from surge tonight, as Sandy moves ashore and winds turn more southerly and push an 11 foot wall of water toward New York Harbor.

Shoreline defenses have already been breached from North Carolina to New York, and Sandy is just getting wound up.

Sandy will race toward shore today, and then slow down. That means a long, 3-4 day duration of rain, wind & surge.

Gusts to 60 mph are now raking the Jersey Coast at Barnegat Light USGS weather station NJ.

The "triple whammy" of storm surge, waves and a full moon high tide will cause the worst damage tonight.

We are just beginning to see Sandy's effects unfold today, and there is already serious coastal flodding and damage.

PH

Slow-Motion Disaster: Sandy's moves in

Posted at 9:36 PM on October 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Hurricane Sandy: Latest Storm Headlines

Sandy strikes Monday Effects from Hurricane Sandy intensify Monday

Landfall: Likely early Tuesday AM in southern or central New Jersey.

Eyewall redevelops: Satellite trends show Sandy's eyewall has reformed. Sandy's eye is clearly visible Sunday night.

Some intensification? Warm water and jet stream energy may intensify Sandy before landfall

Triple Whammy: 5-11 ft storm surge; 15-20 ft waves, full moon high tide at 9pm EDT Monday for New Jersey, New York & Long Island

10 Million in the Dark? 10 million may lose power according to John's Hopkins University estimate (and that number may be low...)

60 million+ people affected in the "megalopolis" of NYC, Baltimore, Philly, Washington D.C. & Boston by Sandy's wrath

800 mile wide monster 40+ mph winds from Maine to Georgia

60 mph winds & 15-25 foot waves on Lake Michigan? as Sandy's northerly "fetch" pounds the south shore

"Blizzacane" 2 to 3 feet of snow and blizzard warnings for the Appalachian Mountains

NYC Subway System flood threat? a 6 to 11 foot storm surge on in Manhattan may flood a portion of NYC's Subway System

Multi-Billion Dollar Disaster? Irene caused 15.8 billion in damage. Sandy has the potential to exceed that total

NOAA did what?? No "Hurricane Warnings?" I'm aghast at this decision by NOAA & NHC...more below

Sandy Micro Update:

Thanks to Bill Endersen for keeping us up on the latest developments with Hurricane Sandy this weekend. I posted some pretty hefty blogs recently that fully describe the unique, even unprecedented character of Hurricane Sandy.

These are great reading if you want some deeper background on the storm, but way too time consuming (several hours each) to keep up with during the storm's rapidly changing "landfall evolution."

So I'm going to transition to a more headline driven approach the next few days, with supporting links so you can dig deeper into each aspect of this historic storm.

I'll also give you my latest synopsis and perspective on what's unfolding.

Here's the Sunday night version.

Latest Trends:

Sandy is showing (disturbing) signs of intensification...or at least better organization Sunday night. The inner core of the storm is getting better organized...more intense and more symmetric. Sandy's eye has refromed. You can see this clearly on the enhanced IR floater loop.

Sandy is still feeding off water over 25C, and beginning to absorb an injection of energy from the jet stream, cold front and upper air low pressure trough digging over the eastern USA.

Sandy's will actually deepen over the next 24 hours, with pressure falling below 950 millibars at landfall. That's the equivalent of a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Landfall: Near worst case scenario

NHC places official landfall in southern New Jersey...near Cape May or Ocean City.

Sunday night's NAM run brings it farther north and closer to New York City.

Either scenario is bad news for New York & Long Island. Southerly winds will drive a huge wall of water, a storm surge of 6 to 11 feet into New York Harbor at high full moon tide Monday night.

Waves of 15 to 20 feet are possible on top of the higher ocean surface for almost 24 hours. These waves will batter, severely test and possibly breach shoreline defenses.

Slow & Huge:

Sandy will slow down as it reaches shore Monday night. This is not good. This will increase the duration of pounding on the shoreline, and increase rainfall totals inland.

Sandy is huge, near record in size for a hurricane. With tropical storm force winds extending out 520 miles from the center, damage will be widespread. Trees in leaf will fall, and power lines will go down with them in at least a dozen states.

No Hurricane Warnings??

Really?

My jaw literally dropped when I heard this.

Because Sandy is transition into a "Post Tropical Cyclone" NOAA will not issue any Hurricane Warnings anywhere north of North Carolina for Sandy!

That means that even though a Category 1 Hurricane with 75 mph winds (and Category 3 central pressure) is forecast to slam into the East Coast Monday night, there will not be any Hurricane Warnings in effect at the time.

As a meteorologist who spends 365 days a year trying to painfully explain the difference between watches, warnings and constantly changing NWS definitions to listeners I am floored.

This is Hurricane Sandy. The effects on 60 million residents of the eastern USA will be that of a hurricane. People need to prepare for a hurricane, not a "post tropical cyclone." How do you even prepare for a "post tropical cyclone" anyway? Does NOAA have a "post-tropical cyclone" preparedness guide?

This may be the most blatant case of a "distinction without a difference."

NOAA and NHC have really dropped the ball here. The most important thing is to convey a sense of urgency and preparation to the public in advance of a dangerous storm.

Expect repercussions, and changes to official NWS "policy" after this one.

What the experts are saying:

WxUnderground's Jeff Masters:

However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be at least a foot higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

TWC's Bryan Norcross:

And in a possibly related cog-slipping development, the National Weather Service decided NOT to issue a Hurricane Watch for the Northeast coastline... are you ready for this... because it would be confusing to switch from that to a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch after the storm - which will come ashore with hurricane-force winds - morphs into another kind of storm according to the meteorology dictionary.

Whether the missing Hurricane Watch sent the Mayor off-kilter, we'll see. But the criticism came hot and heavy... enough that the Weather Service wrote up a big media release to explain why the clearest possible communications is a bad thing.

I grant that a technical reading of the "rules" says that you can't put up a Hurricane Watch and a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch at the same time. But I'm betting the rules didn't envision a super-mega-combo freak of a storm slamming into the most populated part of the country. When all hell is breaking loose, sometimes you've got to break a few rules to do the right thing.

There will be a whole lot of talk about this when the storm is over. Hopefully that will result in a communication policy that meets the world-class standards of the forecasting that goes on at the Hurricane Center and at Weather Service offices all over the country.

The bottom line... let's all get on the same page. The forecast calls for a massive, destructive storm to affect tens of millions of people. If the forecast is wrong, hooray. But so far it's been right, and the odds are this is going to be really bad for a lot of people. Everybody's goal should be to be sure that as many people as possible are as ready and aware as they can be.

Bottom Line: We are about to watch an unprecedented, slow motion weather disaster unfold in the eastern USA, with damaging effects from Maine to North Carolina and as far west as Chicago with pounding surf and 20-25 foot waves on Lake Michigan.

Stay tuned as we track the twist and turns of Hurricane Sandy as she turns for the coast Monday.

PH

LIVE: East Coast storm threatens millions

Posted at 1:33 PM on October 27, 2012 by Jon Gordon
Filed under: Hurricanes, Storms

Follow this live blog from Digital First Media:

"Frankenstorm" Sandy East Coast threat grows; MN: Cold & drier Friday

Posted at 5:37 PM on October 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Quick look Minnesota synopsis & forecast...then on to looming Hurricane Sandy threat

Metro forecast - Source: Twin Cities NWS

2" to 4" slushy snowfall totals from Sioux Falls to north central Minnesota Thursday

Melting on contact in many spots due to warm ground

Light snow on grassy Whiteside Park in Ely Thursday PM
Image: Ely Chamber of Commerce

.50" to 1"+ rainfall totals from metro east - forecast models did a great job with this event (click map for bigger image)

Source: University of Utah Meso West

Clearing and colder next 48-72 hours in Minnesota

Light snow chance for southern MN & metro Saturday night

Hard freezes are back this weekend 1st long string of sub freezing nights ahead

20s for lows in the metro this weekend

Source: Iowa State University

Staying power - temps may not climb above 40s through next week

"Frankenstorm" Sandy: Perfect Storm ll? "Historic" nightmare East Coast scenario looms

"Expect the unprecedented"

Meteorologists everywhere are watching with amazement (and a knot in our stomachs) as a potentially unprecedented and historic weather event continues to develop along the U.S. East Coast by Monday.

Here's the latest breakdown & timeline on Hurricane Sandy, and the likely track and effects as Sandy moves north.

Friday: Sandy churns northward through the Bahamas and parelells Florida's East Coast.

Sandy is large enough and close enough that rain squalls , pounding surf and tropical storm force wind gusts to 60 mph will continue to lash Florida's East Coast Friday.

This weekend:

The spaghetti models are fairly tightly clustered on Sandy's short term track.

The model consensus brings the hurricane to a position off the Carolina Coast by Sunday. This means Sandy will ride over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream this weekend, and that may add energy that can help Sandy maintain strength.

The official NHC intensity forecast is for a Category 1 storm packing winds of 80mph Sunday. Forecasting intensity with Sandy is very dicey, and rapid fluctuations in intensity are quite possible as the storm feeds off of warmer than average ocean waters.

Another factor that may throw a wild card into Sandy's intensity is the transition to "extra tropical" status as Sandy moves north. As Sandy interacts with the northern jet stream, additional energy may be transferred into the storm.

So, the potential for rapid intensification of Sandy is there this weekend. Remember hurricane intensity forecast are notoriously difficult.

Billion Dollar Question: Where does Sandy go next Monday?

The grouping of model forecast tracks for Sandy tightened considerably Thursday. The likelihood of a U.S. landfall somewhere between Delaware and Boston increased considerably, probably up to at least 65%, if not higher.

The European model continues to hold the left (west) side of the forecast envelope, projecting a landfall in Delaware Monday.

The NOGAPS continues to hold the nightmare scenario of a direct hit from a damaging storm on New York City.

-No matter where the storm comes ashore, the sheer size of Sandy is likely to be enough to spread tropical storm force winds up to 300 miles from the center. This likely means widespread tree and power line damage in the most populated areas of the USA. The prospect for millions without power from Washington D.C. to New York and Philly leading up to Halloween is indeed scary.

-Inland flooding is possible several hundred miles away from the coast. Most of the damage from Hurricane Irene was from torrential rain induced flooding well inland from "landfall."

-Storm surge and high waves will pound the entire East Coast as Sandy moves north. Check out this animation of wave heights from NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center as Sandy churns north.

Bottom Line:

We're still on track, and the odds are growing that a "hybrid" Hurricane Sandy may morph into a monster storm that will slam the east Coast next Monday or Tuesday.

The effects could be widespread, and odds are growing that Sandy may be the USA's next "Billion Dollar Weather Disaster."

Stay tuned.

PH

Hurricane Sandy "nightmare scenario" unfolding? Growing threat of "historic" East Coast hurricane

Posted at 5:37 PM on October 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

There is growing concern in the hurricane expert community and a growing consensus in forecast models that a major, even historic Hurricane Sandy may strike the East Coast early next week.

If current forecast model trends pan out, a major "billion dollar weather disaster" may unfold next Monday & Tuesday somewhere from Mid-Atlantic to New England.

Here is the current thinking from the Weather Lab, and the breakdown of a potentially devestating blow from Hurricane Sandy for the East Coast next week.

Hurricane Sandy through Thursday:

Hurricane Sandy lashed Jamaica Wednesday. Sandy's developing eyewall passed over the eastern end of Jamaica, and is heading for mountainous eastern Cuba early Thursday.

IR color loop shows Sandy's eyewall passing over eastern Jamaica
Source: NOAA

The official NHC forecast then takes Sandy into the Central Bahamas by Thursday PM.

Source: NOAA/NHC

Interaction with land means Sandy may weaken slightly to a 70 mph tropical storm, but remain well organized and near hurricane strength.

Friday: Sandy sideswipes eastern Florida

Forecast model agreement is good through Friday for a resurgent hurricane Sandy to slow a bit, and jog slightly northwest.

If the slight left hand turn occurs, southeast Florida will feel the effects from a growing storm as Sandy does a drive by. Tropical storm force winds, wind driven rain squalls will lash the greater Miami area, and heavy surf will pound Florida's East Coast.

Some coastal flooding and wind damage with gusts to 60 mph may occur in and near Miami Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying for eastern Florida.

This Weekend: Critical 48 hours for Sandy's development & track

The danger zone for Sandy's development occurs this weekend in the open Atlantic.

Forecast model tracks are tightening around a solution brining Sandy north over warm Gulf Stream waters east of the Carolina's.

Source: SFWMD

As Sandy moves north, she will begin to interact, or get "picked up" by a mid-latitude trough approaching the eastern USA.

This is where things get dicey, and potentially very dangerous.

These northern, non-tropical systems can inject cold air and jet stream energy into hurricanes as they exit tropical latitudes. The "Perfect Storm" of 1991 is an example of such a storm as Hurricane Grace moved north.

The increased energy aloft combined with a shot of energy from warm Gulf Stream waters below has the potential to morph Sandy into a "hybrid" superstorm...a storm with both tropical and mid-latitude characteristics.

Many models are indicating that may happen, and that may create a geographically large, potentially devastating storm plowing into the most densely populated area of the USA early next week.

Monday & Tuesday: Crunch time

Many forecast models and the growing "spaghetti plot" consensus favor a Monday or Tuesday landfall with Sandy, somewhere between New Jersey and New England.

A few of the more trusted models paint what amounts to a nightmare scenario... a powerful hurricane slamming into the northeast "megalopolis" with widespread damaging wind, significant storm surge and huge battering waves.

The European(ECMWF) model has taken the lead on Sandy, and continues to favor a New Jersey landfall Monday night.

Source: WxUnderground

The Navy's NOGAPS Model paints an almost apocalyptic scenario...a powerful hurricane with damaging wind and tremendous storm surge taking direct aim at New York City.

Even the oft lagging GFS has come more into line with these solutions in the latest runs.

If either of these 2 trusted models (Euro, NOGAPS) pans out, we are likely looking at a large powerful damaging event of historic proportions for New Jersey, New York & Long Island, Philly and potentially Boston and/or Upstate New York.

As Irene taught us, areas far beyond the "landfall zone" can suffer significant damage from hurricanes well inland.

A scenario that includes millions without power, many lives lost and billions in insurance losses is goring increasingly likely early next week in the northeast USA.

There is still a chance that Sandy will stay out at sea.

But the prudent move at this point is for states, cities and residents in the northeast to begin planning and marshalling resources now in anticipation of the growing threat from Hurricane Sandy.

Stay tuned...

PH

Sandy slams Jamaica; Growing potenial of "billion dollar" East Coast hurricane disaster

Posted at 10:00 AM on October 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

"Sandy" slamming Jamaica today - still a threat to USA's east coast

Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but somewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras.

-TWC's Bryan Norcross on the unusual east coast strike scenarios of a potential Hurricane Sandy

The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is very likely that Kingston will receive a direct hit from a portion of the eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will be in the right front quadrant of the storm, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica.

-WxUnderground's Jeff Masters on Sandy's development today, and a possible devestating direct hit on Kingston, Jamaica.

Tracking Sandy: East Coast threat remains

Want to build a nightmare scenario for extensive hurricane damage?

Take a storm that brushes Florida's east coast near Miami, rapidly intensifies over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the Carolina Coast, and then makes landfall somewhere along the east coast near New Jersey potentially affecting New York and New England.

That may be a stretch...but it's exactly what some of the latest model runs are suggesting.

Sandy is near Hurricane force as it slams Jamaica today.

NHC tracks the storm through Cuba tomorrow and the Bahamas Friday. Sandy is big enough that she should brush Florida's east coast with tropical storm force winds.

Billion Dollar question: What next?

The overnight Euro has not backed off on taking Sandy into the east coast. The track and intensity shifted slightly, bringing a slightly weaker storm into New Jersey Tuesday night.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

The Navy's NOGAPS model also brings a dangerous storm into New Jersey Monday...with a potentially devastating storm surge and wind field into New York City.

Alarms are sounding today in the hurricane community. WxUnderground hurricane expert Jeff Masters elabroates on the potential billion dollar disaster unfolding for the northeast.

Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.

The bottom line is, we still don't know where Sandy will go...but odds of a potentially damaging east coast strike seem to be growing with each passing model run.

The potential for a devestating "billion dollar" hurricane is growing today.

Stay tuned.

Twin Cities Quick look forecast

Rain opportunities & coverage increase this afternoon through tonight

.50" rainfall output clustered around half an inch for metro

1"+ possible in Wisconsin and possible northeast Minnesota by Thursday night

Slight risk for severe storms - mainly southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin

Cold front slides through tomorrow with colder north winds & falling temps

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Rain: Bring it on

The next low pressure wave is riding a stalled front toward Minnesota.

As the low moves closer, rain & T-Storm coverage will increase this afternoon and tonight into Thursday. The models are squeezing out around .50" for the metro area....with heavier totals over 1" as you move north & east.

Source: NOAA/HPC

The heaviest, steadiest rains may be Thursday as the system slides through.

Severe risk shifts east:

NOAA's SPC bumped the slight risk area east early this morning, and the Twin Cities is no longer in the "risk zone." That makes sense to me looking at surface and severe parameters today.

Source: NOAA/SPC

We may see strong to severe storms brew in Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF IA/SOUTHERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES SHEAR/LIFT IN THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

WHILE SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATIONS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PH

Rain & severe risk east later today; "Sandy" stalks Jamaica, growing threat to New England?

Posted at 11:01 PM on October 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

1" to 2"+ rainfall totals in NW metro during localized Tuesday AM deluge

Wave #2 next low pressure wave moves in with showers Wednesday

.50" to .80" Models predicting decent rain totals through Thursday

Slight risk for a few severe storms east of the metro Wednesday PM

Hurricane Sandy looking like a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday

New York/New England hurricane threat? European model paints scary scenraio next week, other models moving closer to Euro solution

Source: WxUnderground GFS model ensembles

The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it.

- Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross on growing New York & New England threat from Hurricane Sandy

Less scary model solutions steer "Sandy" out to sea away from land

London Fog:

A rare saturated lower atmosphere over Minnesota & Wisconsin means perfect conditions for thick fog. With a stalled front in the area and temps near the dew point, humidity will reach 100% (saturation) in many areas into early Wednesday.

Expect thick fog with widespread visibilities under 1/4 mile...to near zero in some places.

A dense for advisory is in effect until 10am Wednesday.

Was that Sherlock Holmes I saw wandering by in a trench coat?

Beneficial soaking Tuesday AM:

Much of the western & northern meotr saw the first good soaking rain in months Tuesday morning. Here are some totals form the Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 958 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WELCOME RAIN FELL WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE LISTED BELOW. THESE REPORTS ARE 24 HOUR TOTALS ENDING AROUND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THANK YOU TO OUR VOLUNTEER PRECIPITATION OBSERVERS FOR THESE REPORTS.

...MINNESOTA...

CHAMPLIN 1.7 NNW 2.11
CHAMPLIN 1.3 WSW 1.75
MAPLE GROVE 1.0 NNE 1.69
MAPLE GROVE 3.0 WSW 1.68
HAMEL 1 NW 1.40
ANDOVER 0.2 W 1.34
LITTLE FALLS 1.14
LONG LAKE 0.2 WSW 1.07

...WISCONSIN...

JIM FALLS 1.43
ELK MOUND 1.06

Next wave Wednesday:

It's great to be writing and broadcasting about some real weather this week. New words like "rain" "thunder" and "fog" are creeping back into use.

The next wave of low pressure rides along the frontal zone Wednesday.

Scattered showers will become more numerous as the day wears on. The bulk of the rain will come during the PM & evening hours Wednesday...and then another wave will ride in Thursday with the cold front.

Rianfall totals still look pretty decent, with most models cranking out .50" to .80" for the metro by later Thursday. The heaviest waves of rain may fall east into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin where 1" to 2" may fall in a swath from Rochester to Eau Claire.

Source: NOAA/HPC

Severe risk east?

If enough sun breaks out in the relatively warm and humid air mass ahead of the front Wednesday, a few strong to borderline severe storms may erupt.

The storm prediction center highlights the possibility with a rare late October "slight risk" zone.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Likely "Hurricane" Sandy takes aim at Jamaica:

Late October hurricanes like to brew in the Caribbean and head north.

Sandy is no exception, and takes aim at Jamaica Wednesday. Sandy will likely be a Category 1 hurricane with 80mph winds as she slams into Jamaica Wednesday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

The "Billion Dollar" question: Where will Sandy go next?

Sandy's eventual path takes us into "speculative" weather territory.

Nobody can tell you for sure if Sandy is a potential threat to New England yet, but some of the model solutions look scary for New England, Long Island and possibly New York City.

SFWMD

Tuesday European model runs take Sandy on a path that could pose a direct hit to New England next Tuesday from a ferocious super "hybrid" hurricane. You may recall the European model (ECMWF) did the best job with the shifting track of hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast this summer.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

These systems can morph into hybrid tropical/mid-latitude monsters as hurricanes move north and absorb energy from colder northern cyclones. This is how the so called "Perfect Storm" deepened into one of the most ferocious systems ever observed in the North Atlantic in late October 1991.

Model runs in the next 72 hours will be critical in nailing down Sandy's eventual path and intensity.

There are many solutions that take Sandy out to sea and away from the east coast. But it's too early to write off a direct hit that could cause massive storm surge, flooding rains and wind damage.

If Sandy comes ashore in New England, she has the potential to be our next "billion dollar weather disaster" in the USA.

Stay tuned...

PH

Splash & dash; AM boomers & downpours; 70 PM? East Coast hurrricane threat?

Posted at 8:44 AM on October 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Loud & close - strong T-Storms favored western & north metro this morning

Thunder & heavy downpours - standing water in the north metro near Anoka & Champlain

.46" rainfall in Deephaven this morning in west metro

.50" to 1.5"+ doppler storm total estimations from Maple Grove into Anoka County

Near 70 today last shot at 70 today and possibly tomorrow

Hurricane threat or hype? Wide range of solutions on potential for east coast hurricane early next week

Flashing & splashing:

That was loud! And bright.

Our early AM raucous T-Storm cluster woke many of us out of a deep sleep and dropped some welcome rainfall that favored the western & northern metro, Little Falls & Mille Lacs.

The heavier rains were localized, but impressive. Over an inch of rain quickly soaked the northern metro, stranding cars in flooded streets in Anoka County. Doppler storm total rainfall shows the swath of heavy rainfall over an inch in the north metro.

Source: WxUnderground

About 2,800 customers were without power this morning after the storms blew through.

Source: Xcel Energy

Warm front ahead: Last shot at 70 this week?

The active warm front is pushing north today. AM fog may actually give way to some peeks of sun this afternoon n the metro and southern Minnesota.

As warmer air bubbles north, highs may push 70 today, and possibly tomorrow in the metro.

The next wave of rain moves in Wednesday into Thursday, and it could be another good soaker. Rainfall of .50" to 1" is possible again by Thursday evening.

There is enough cold air working in behind the cold front that we could see the system end as a few wet snowflakes late Thursday.

Ugh.

Hurricane Sandy: Hype or threat to East Coast?

This falls under the "too early to be credible" but "worth keeping an eye on" file.

Various scenarios and model solutions paint a widely varied picture with the eventual track of Sandy.

Source: SFWMD

In the shorter term, NHC and most other guidance agree on a path over Jamaica this week, then into the open Atlantic this weekend.

Source: NOAA/NHC

This is where things get dicey.

A few models, including the European and Canadian models bring a powerful hurricane near the east coast by Monday.

The GFS keeps Sandy out in the Atlantic, then "slingshot" a "hybrid super-storm" back west into the coast early next week.

Jason Samenow from the Capital Weather Gang has a nice post laying out the possibilities.

Source: Capital Weather Gang

The wide temperature contrasts between the still warm tropics and increasingly colder northern latitudes in late October pose a unique threat for "hybrid" hurricanes such as the "Perfect Storm" in late October 1991.

There are still many scenarios for Sandy, ranging from no storm landfall on the eastern USA coastline, to a dangerous hurricane that could lash the northeast Monday & Tuesday of next week.

Stay tuned as Sandy continues to develop, and the models continue to crank out various solutions for her eventual path and strength.

PH

Leslie threatens Bermuda; Awesome derecheo time lapse; Isaac eases drought

Posted at 8:39 AM on September 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Hurricanes

Hurricane Bermuda? Leslie threatens

Derecheo loop - great radar lapse of June 29th derecheo as it races from Chicago to Washington D.C.

Drought Buster - Isaac's rains ease drought in parts of Midwest

Perfect forecast? Sunny & near 80 today in the metro - does it get any better?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Secondary cold front - showers and about 10-12 degrees cooler behind advancing cold front Friday

Nice weekend - Classic September weekend ahead

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Leslie takes aim at Bermuda:

How can a hurricane with a gentle name like "Leslie" strike fear into Bermuda anyway?

Check out the latest NHC track. The storm may pass just east of Bermuda Sunday.

Source: NOAA via CNN

That's good, because it may just keep the stronger, more damaging eastern part of the hurricane offshore.

Source: WxUnderground

Still, it looks like Leslie may sideswipe Bermuda with a decent punch and raging surf this weekend.

Isaac: Drought Buster

Here's what rainfall from a tropical storm can do to a drought.

Source: NOAA/AHPS

Take a look at what 2" to 8"+ rainfall from Isaac last week did to today's updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source: NOAA/UNL

Isaac put a major dent in drought conditions from Arkansas into Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

Remember the massive damaging Chicago to D.C. derecheo in late June?

Check out this excellent radar time lapse as the system races east producing damaging winds along it's path.

Close call in Charlotte?

The DNC moved tonight's keynote event inside in Charlotte. That's a good move because it's just too close of a call to rule out any thunderstorms tonight in Charlotte.

Check out the forecast from the local NWS:

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

PH

UFO-like North Shore "shelf cloud"; Hurricane Leslie....in Greenland?

Posted at 5:35 PM on September 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, Severe weather

Severe storms rumbled along the North Shore Tuesday night

Dramatic storm images captured in Grand Marais

UFO - Like "Shelf Cloud" rolled along North Shore

Hurricane Leslie getting stronger and moving into North Atlantic

Hurricane threat for Bermuda, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island

Leslie still near hurricane strength....near Greenland?

Tropical Storm Nadine? possible in the Gulf of Mexico next 48 hours

Beam me up Scotty!

Check out the dramatic images captured by photographer Stephan Hoglund of Tuesday night's severe storms that rolled along the North Shore.

The images from Grand Marais show vivid lightning strikes and a bizarre looking "shelf cloud"...the gusty edge of rain cooled air on the front end of severe thunderstorms.

Image Credit: Stephan Hoglund -Grand Marais

Image Credit: Stephan Hoglund -Grand Marais

Image Credit: Stephan Hoglund -Grand Marais

The storms did knock out power to numerous residents in northeast Minnesota Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG COOK 47.85N 92.69W
09/04/2012 ST. LOUIS MN UTILITY COMPANY

POWER WAS OUT TO 2500 CUSTOMERS FROM COOK TO ELY AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH WINDS TOPPLED TREES AND BRANCHES
ONTO POWER LINES.

Thanks to Jessa Frost at the North House Folk School in Grand Marais for passing along these remarkable images!

Hurricane Leslie: Threat to Nova Scotia...and maybe Greenland?

Leslie is getting cranked up in the Atlantic and moving north.

The hurricane poses a threat to Bermuda this weekend...then races north toward early Nova Scotia next week.

Source: NOAA/NHC

North Atlantic sea surface temps are much warmer than average this summer...which means Leslie may maintain hurricane strength longer as it races north over relatively warmer waters.

Some of the models (including the GFS) have Leslie still near hurricane force as it approaches the southern tip of...wait for it...Greenland next week.

Source: NOAA

Leslie may be "extratropical" by then...but still may pack wind gusts near hurricane force.

With record melting of Greenland's ice sheet this summer, a warm hurricane-like storm with heavy rains and high winds could accelerate melting even more.

Bizzare.

Hello Nadine?

HNC is keeping an eye on an area of potential tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico. There's a 40% chance the system could become "Tropical Storm Nadine" in the next 48 hours according to NHC.

Source: NHC

Stay tuned....

PH

Summer heat & humidity (& storms?) today; Warmest year on record so far

Posted at 8:49 AM on September 4, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Hurricanes, Summer

Weather Headlines:

29 days at or above 90 in the metro so far in 2012 at MSP Airport

Near 90 today in the metro

Sticky 60s dew points one more day in southern Minnesota

Scattered rain & thunder possible today & especially tonight

Slight Risk - south & east of metro today

"Fresh Front" ahead Wednesday - Canadian cool front sails through

"Sep-tober?" Falll preview later this week...highs in the 60s?

2012 warmest year on record so far in the metro

3rd warmest summer on record at MSP Airport

3 of the 6 warmest summers at MSP have occured in the past 6 years

Drought buster - Isaac rains help ease drought in several states

MSP Quick Look Forecast: Sticky with thunder threat south today

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Duluth & Northern Minnesota: 60s later this week!

Source: Duluth NWS

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Summer hangs tough: One more 90-degree day?

Labor Day was day #29 at or above 90 at MSP in the sweaty summer of 2012.

We have one more shot at 90 in the metro today, how about a nice round 30 days of 90+ this summer? That is the most in 24 years since we hit a record of 44 days back in 1988.

With dew points in the sticky 60s, I can't rule out a few pop up T-Storms today. The best chance of a much needed lawn soaking will come overnight tonight into early Wednesday.

There is a slight risk a few of the storms could bubble up to severe limits, especially east & south of the metro.

Source: NOAA/SPC

2012: Warmest year on record so far:

If it feels like you're living a warmer sate this year, you're right.

So far 2012 is the warmest year on record at MSP, and for most of MN. We've also just sweated thought the 3rd warmest summer on record...and the highest number of 90 degree days in 24 years.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

It is interesting to note that 3 of the 6 warmest summers in the metro have occurred in the past 6 years since 2006.

Overall you're shelling out about 45% more this year for AC than in an average year when you add up "cooling degree days" in 2012. The flip side is you saved about that much last winter in heating costs

Fall Preview Ahead!

This week marks back to school and the unofficial start to fall in Minnesota.

The strongest cold front since May will blow through Minnesota right on schedule tomorrow.

High temps will hover in the 70s later this week in the metro, and temps may not climb out of the 60s up north.

Dew points will plummet into the 40s with this dry Canadian air mass. This may be a great week to get that painting or staining project done...or anything else that needs a dry stretch of weather.

"It takes a flood to end a drought." - Mark Twain

Drought Buster: Isaac brings beneficial rainfall to central states

We always cover the dangerous headlines with hurricanes, but did you know tropical weather systems also bring beneficial rains to drought areas?

Isaac delivered on the promise of multi-inch rainfall totals for parts of the central plains and Ohio Valley.

Check out the AHPS rainfall map for the past week. After dumping a flooding 10" to 20" in eastern Louisiana, Isaac brought anywhere from 2" to 8" rainfall from Arkansas through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Source: NOAA/AHPS

Now look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source: NOAA/UNL

Notice how the so called "vowel states" really benefitted from heavy rain totals. Isaac essentially wiped out, or pushed back drought a category in many areas on the eastern part of the great drought of 2012. Depending on fall precipitation, this may be a big boost to soil moisture going forward into the spring of 2013.

PH

Isaac: Tornado captured on video; 23" rainfall; MN mixed heat & storms

Posted at 8:32 AM on August 30, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

Tornadoes from hurricanes?

One surprising aspect of hurricanes and tropical storms to many is that they do produce tornadoes. As the system interacts with land, the spin or "shear" within individual cells in spiraling bands swirling around the hurricane can translate down to the ground as tornadoes.

Check out the impressive video of an apparently "weak" tornado captured in Gulfport, MS. You can see debris blowing in one direction, and then the other as the twister passes quickly by.

Source: WBIR-TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 723 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

0716 AM TORNADO PASCAGOULA 30.37N 88.55W
08/30/2012 JACKSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

JACKSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO
SPOTTED ON MARKET STREET IN PASCAGOULA.

0716 AM TROPICAL STORM PICAYUNE 30.53N 89.68W
08/30/2012 PEARL RIVER MS BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FATALITY DUE
TO A TREE FALLING ON A CAR NEAR GOODYEAR BOULEVARD.

Tornado watches are out today for the eastern side of Isaac.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Rain keeps a comin'

Isaac's main effect has been coastal storm surge and locally heavy rainfall.

Isaac has dumped anywhere from 7" to 15" of rain on Louisiana. Check out the incredible 23"+ total reported from the National Hurricane Center.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES...AT NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET IS OCCURRING AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 23.31 INCHES HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM GRETNA LOUISIANA.

23" is a year's worth of rain for many states west of the Mississippi.

Isaac will continue to dump heavy, drought busting rains in the central states.

Source: NOAA/HPC

Hot & steamy with a thunder chance:

We're in for one last day of heat in southern Minnesota. A cool front is clearly visible on maps and satellite shots today cutting through central Minnesota.

To the south, temps should make the 90s again.

To the north, a much cooler and drier air mass is pushing in, and will spread south over Minnesota by tonight.

We'll see a few scattered showers & T-Storms along the front today. SPC does not expect any severe weather.

The combination of wind, heat and low humidity make for high fire danger in southern Minnesota today. "Red Flag Warnings" are flying for all of southern Minnesota today.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

We'll all enjoy a much cooler & drier air mass (40s & 50s dew points) ahead as we head into the weekend!

PH

Isaac edges north; MSP sweats through 28th day of 90+ Thursday

Posted at 6:15 PM on August 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

10" to 15"+ rainfall totals with Tropical Storm Isaac

60-75 people rescued Wednesday as Isaac's storm surge pounded Plaquemines Parish SE of New Orleans

Drought buster - Isaac may ease drought in some areas

93F high temp at MSP Airport Wednesday

27th day of 90+ degree heat in 2012 in the metro

90s again Thursday but 100 degrees not likely now Thursday

Cool front slips through late Thursday PM

40s dew points? Much less humid & more comfy by Friday

Isaac deluge slides slowly north:

So far, Isaac's wrath falls under the category of...bad, but it could have been worse.

Over 10" of rain has drenched parts of Louisiana, and some 15"+ rainfall totals are likely.

Source: NWS & Nola.com

A 10 foot storm surge invaded Plaquemines Parish, the Mississippi Delta region that juts out into the Gulf of Mexico. NBC news reports 50 to 75 people were rescued in Plaquemines, some pulled from attics by boat.

Overall the pumps and flood gates appear to have worked as designed in New Orleans. That's great news 7 years to the day after Katrina flooded the city.

Drought Buster:

Isaac's rains are a good news bad news scenario for many.

The bad news is 5" to 8"+ rainfall totals will cause short term flooding.

The good news is that as Isaac spins north, 6" to 8" rainfall totals fan out in an arc from Arkansas to St. Louis and central Illinois toward Indy. There arras are in severe to extreme drought and can use some heavy soaking rains.

Source: NOAA/HPC

It may be too late for crops this year, but Isaac will recharge soils and rivers and may be a big step toward preventing a multi-year drought in some parts of the Midwest.

Minnesota Heat: 90s again Thursday...but cool front slides through

Our late season heat wave is here, and 90s are back through Thursday.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

A cool front will slide south a little earlier than the models indicated on Thursday...and that should save Minnesota from triple digit heat Thursday.

Still days 27 & 28 of 90+ heat this summer is the highest number in over 5 years. We sweated through 27 days of 90+ heat back in 2007.

Is it just me, or does 93 degrees actually feel pretty good now?

PH

Isaac stalls & pounds New Orleans; Minnesota heat builds; Blue Moon Friday

Posted at 11:04 AM on August 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

Isaac stalls SW of New Orleans early today

Source: WxUnderground

NW at 6 miles per hour - Isaac's slow forward speed

9"+ rainfall totals already at New Orleans lakefront Airport

10" to 20" rainfall totals likely from Isaac by Thursday

80 mph winds continue to lash New Orleans area

113 mph wind gust in Belle Chase overnight (SE of New Orleans)

Eyewall - still battering New Orleans today

500,000+ without power in LA, MS, & AL

20' wave heights overnight just offshore from mouth of the Mississippi

Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois & Indiana 6"+ rainfall totals from Isaac this weekend

Google Maps Isaac Tracker:

Heat wave builds for Minnesota next 48 hours

Blue Moon: 2nd full moon of August Friday!

Live video for mobile from Ustream
Live coverage of Isaac from WWL TV in New Orleans

The Big Uneasy: Slow motion weather disaster in progress

Even after (a 2nd) landfall, Isaac continues to deal surprises.

Isaac slows to a crawl overnight, lingering over open water just offshore. That allowed Isaac to feed off of 82F+ degree water in the Gulf of Mexico and batter the New Orleans area through the night.

Source: NOAA

With 9" of rain already down in parts of New Orleans and the storm's eyewall lashing the city today, it's not a stretch to say that the forecast 20" rainfall totals will "verify."

NEXRAD "storm total precipitation" estimates show widespread 6"+ rainfall totals
Source: WxUnderground

So far the pumps and levees seem to be holding. But remember, Katrina did not show her devastating blow until well after landfall. We thought we dodged a bullet. It will be at least Thursday, or even Friday before we can safely say the New Orleans levee system withstood the test from Isaac.

From drought to flood:

Isaac's rains will literally push some areas from drought to flood overnight.

As the storm crawls north over the next 2 days, flooding rains will spread into some areas hit hard by the drought of 2012. Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana could see 6"+ rainfall totals from Isaac by Labor Day.

Source: NOAA/HPC

It's too late to help crops this year, but will help recharge soils & rivers. Rainfall from Isaac should help raise water levels along the southern portions of the nearly bone dry Mississippi River.

Minnesota Forecast: Late summer heat wave builds next 48 hours

Remember the hum of your AC unit? You may hear the chorus of air conditioners across Minnesota the next 2 days.

A "hot front" is pushing into Minnesota today.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Temps will soar into the 90s in most of Minnesota today and tomorrow. In fact, temp forecasts for tomorrow show warm enough air about 5,000 feet above ground level to generate some 100 degree readings for southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon. Right now I'm sticking with my forecast of 100F for the metro Thursday PM.

If we get to 100 tomorrow, it will be the 3rd time this year, the most since 1988 when we sufferted through 4 days of 100+.

Satellite images show no big cloud masses to save us today from late summer sunshine that will boost temps. It could be worse; at least dew points are holding in the lower 60s in most areas.

The record high at MSP today and tomorrow is 96 degrees, there is a chance we may challenge that record both days.

A cooler front will ease into from the north Friday, and temps should fall back into the upper 80s, with dew points in the comfy lower 50s by later Friday.

Stay cool!

Source: Wikipedia

Once in a "Blue Moon"

If you've been waiting for those things that only happen "once in a blue moon" Friday is your day.

The moon is full for the 2nd time this month on Friday at 8:58am. The first full moon occurred August 1st.

No the moon is not really blue. "Blue moons" occur on average every 2.8 years, so the next one won't come until July 31st of 2015!

PH

Update: Slow moving Isaac pounds New Orleans

Posted at 10:19 PM on August 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

10:30 pm Update:

10 foot storm surge at Shell Beach Louisiana just SE of New Orleans

85 mph wind gust in Gulf of Mexico SE of Grand Isle, LA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 801 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

0712 PM HURRICANE 1 SSE GRAND ISLE CMAN 29.26N 89.96W
08/28/2012 JEFFERSON LA C-MAN STATION

MEASURED N 58KT/67MPH GUST 74KT/85MPH.

230,000 without power late Tuesday night and growing fast

Source: Entergy New Orleans

Radar loop shows Isaac's eye near Grand Isle.
Source: WxUndergorund

Hurricane Isaac made a brief landfall over the mouth of the Mississippi Tuesday night, then the center wobbled over open water.

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

ISAAC PASSED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AROUND 2345 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD AND HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RECENTLY RESUMED AND A SECOND LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT NEAR GRAND ISLE.

Most of Isaac's circulation is still over the warm open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and that means Isaac may maintain hurricane strength for a longer period overnight.

Spiraling bands of hurricane strength will continue to spin into New Orleans overnight and into Wednesday morning.

Isaac will slowly come ashore overnight, and the slow moving storm will linger and batter New Orleans with bands of heavy rain, wind and storm surge.

The story of Isaac will be told on Wednesday as we find out how well the levees and pumps withstand sustained surge and 10"+ rainfall barrage.

PH

****

"Hurricane" Isaac - Isaac finally reaches hurricane strength

80 mph - Category 1 storm

Gaining strength - Isaac better organized than ever before

6 to 12 foot storm surge battering Louisiana Coast

Landfall tonight near the mouth of the Mississippi River

Live streaming coverage of Isaac from WWL TV in New Orleans

Free desktop streaming application by Ustream

Isaac crawls ashore:

The "forecast" part of Isaac is almost over now. The "news" part of the storm is in full swing, and will take over coverage in the coming days.

Here's the Tuesday 4 PM NHC update on Isaac in the hours before he comes ashore. Isaac is likely at or near peak strength.

400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT NEARS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

Isaac has become more circular today, and may be slightly stronger just before landfall. He is also a large, slow moving storm. That means the impacts will last for a good 24+ hours in and near New Orleans.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. NOAA BUOY 42040...LOCATED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH...100 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH... 135 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

What are the likely effects from Isaac?

The biggest threats with Isaac are the levee battering storm surge and the potential for multi inch rainfall totals that can overwhelm city pumps and resources.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE 30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

Eye on Isaac detected by doppler:

Isaac is close enough to NWS radar to see the eyewall as it spins toward shore. The eyewall is the most intense part of the hurricane, and will pack the highest wind gusts as the squalls move through.

Source: WxUnderground

The worst of the storm from a wind perspective will be tonight as the still developing eyewall spins into New Orleans. With several hours of 80+ mph winds, I expect significant tree, window and roof damage from Isaac. Widespread power outages are likely by tonight in and near New Orleans.

Minnesota Forecast: "Heat Storm" ahead

It looks like we're in for one more blast from the hot summer of 2012.

A blast furnace like dome of high pressure is moving into Minnesota this week.

Temperatures soared well over 100 degrees in Nebraska & South Dakota Tuesday.

Source: Sioux Falls NWS

I'm forecasting 96 for the metro Wednesday, and near 100 Thursday. The record both days is 96 degrees.

Get ready for one more shot of intense summer heat in Minnesota.

PH

Isaac targets New Orleans; 6-12 ft "storm surge" will test levees

Posted at 8:38 AM on August 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

Isaac approaching Louisiana Coastline today

85 mph? NHC forecasting a Category 1 hurricane at landfall tonight

6 to 12 feet - expected "storm surge" with Isaac

High tide? Isaac expected to come ashore at high tide tonight

Levees tested - This will be the 1st significant test of New Orleans levee system since Katrina in 2007

7 years since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans on August 29, 2005

The "eye" of Isaac - Isaac finally forming an eye Tuesday morning off the Louisiana Coast

Source: NOAA

Here comes Isaac:

Isaac continues to churn away, and confound forecasters in the Gulf of Mexico.

After a week of dueling models and varying intensity forecasts, Isaac is finally bearing down on New Orleans and the mouth of the Mississippi today.

Source: NOAA/NHC

Isaac continues to develop slowly, and has had trouble filling in on the northern "semicircle" ...or northern side of the storm.

As Isaac finally becomes a hurricane today, forecasters at NHC now bring Isaac ashore after midnight tonight/early Tuesday as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane.

Source: NOAA via WSI

If there's any good news here, it's that Isaac may not have time to develop into a monster Cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

Taking his time:

Isaac is moving slowly today....to the NW around 7 mph. That may pose some problems for New Orleans as the storm crawls ashore tonight.

1) A slower moving storm means Isaac's wind & waves will pound the coast line and the levees on Lake Pontchartrain for a longer period of time.

2) The storm will still have more time to strengthen over the warm (82F+) waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

3) Rainfall totals (currently forecast at 7" to 14") may increase as the storm sits over New Orleans through Wednesday.

4) The storm is expected to come ashore at or near high tide tonight. That may add to Isaac's storm surge, currently forecast at 6 to 12 feet.

Source: NOAA

The surge, wind and waves Isaac will test the upgraded levee system in New Orleans through Wednesday. remember with Katrina the damage came after the hurricane had largely passed. It looked like New Orleans had dodged a bullet, until the levees failed just after the storm. We may not know the full extent of Isaac wrath on New Orleans until sometime late Wednesday or Thursday.

You can watch live coverage from WWL in New Orleans here.

Streaming live video by Ustream

Drought Buster? Isaac may ease drought in some areas:

One benefit from Isaac may be in some of the drought plagued areas of the Midwest. Check out the forecast 5-day rainfall totals from Isaac below.

Isaac may dump several inches of rain in parts of Arkansas and Missouri. That could help ease drought...and possibly raise flows on the Mississippi River by late this week.

It is possible that some areas may go from drought to flood by this weekend.

Source: NOAA/HPC

Minnesota Forecast: Heat wave ahead

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Some spotty rain will cross Minnesota today, but Isaac's rains will probably stay south of Minnesota.

Instead, get ready for what looks like the hottest week for the rest of 2012.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest this week, as a late August heat wave cranks up.

Temps should stay tolerable today in the upper 80s. A welcome shower or T-Storm can't be ruled out today.

By Wednesday the heat will come with full force and peak Thursday near 100 degree in the metro and southern Minnesota before easing back to around 90 for the Labor Day weekend.

Source: Iowa State University

Get ready for one more blast of AC-worthy heat this summer in Minnesota.

PH

Isaac forecast to become a hurricane later today, taking aim at New Orleans

Posted at 1:09 PM on August 27, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center from 1 p.m. CDT confirms Tropical Storm Isaac has winds of 65 mph. It's moving to the northwest at about 15 mph.

Landfall could take place in close proximity to New Orleans late on Tuesday with the lashing continuing through Tuesday night.

IR satellite image NOAA at 12:15 p.m. CDT

From the National Hurricane Center:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

Both the path and the intensity still have some uncertainty. It currently appears that the city of New Orleans needs to be prepared to be battered by this tropical storm. Landfall could occur early Tuesday evening.

Excessive rainfall is a serious threat as the computer models slow the inland movement of the tropical storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Isaac expected to intensify to hurricane strength as it heads toward Gulf Coast

Posted at 6:49 AM on August 27, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes, Rainfall, Summer

After passing over the Florida Keys and offering a glancing blow of wind and heavy rain to southern Florida, Tropical Storm Isaac is moving steadily across the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Models differ on the landfall location and intensity, but the threat for hurricane force winds and excessive rainfall is increasing from New Orleans to Mobile.

NAM forecast 4 p.m. CDT Tuesday
Source:Twisterdata.com

GFS 1 p.m. CDT Tuesday
Source: NOAA/College of Dupage

Forecast track from Hurricane Center released at 7 a.m. CDT

From the National Hurricane Center's 7 a.m. CDT statement....MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

Excessive rainfall will occur, mainly north and east of the center of the circulation. This is where the greatest impact of strong winds and storm surge is also expected.

Potential rainfall through Friday,
Source; NOAA

Looking back seven years, Hurricane Katrinia made landfall as a category three hurricane near New Orleans in the morning hours on August 29th.

Hurricane intensity scale. Click here.

IR Satellite of Isaac at 5:45 a.m. CDT
Source: NOAA

Closer to home, a very warm to hot week is in store. temperatures could top the 90 degree mark in the afternoon hours in southern Minnesota. There is a chance for thunderstorms in southwest Minnesota late tonight.

Craig Edwards

Tropical Storm Isaac moving into Gulf of Mexico

Posted at 4:09 PM on August 26, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Hurricanes

For several days forecasters have been tracking Tropical Storm Isaac. Initial forecast tracks seemed to favor a close brush with Tampa and Sanibel early this week. On Sunday afternoon the center of the storm has moved over the Florida Keys, with heavy rain and winds gusting to over 60 mph.

Source:Wxunderground.com

The most recent update on the track of Isaac was released shortly before 4 p.m. CDT and continues the trend of taking the center of the storm away from Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. It has yet to strengthen to hurricane force of 75 mph winds or greater.

From the Hurricane Center's 4 p.m. statement...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.

The forecast allows for a considerable uncertainity as the storm churns through the warm waters of the Gulf. Experts are cautioning the storm could take aim on New Orleans as it strengthens to hurricane force winds.

For now, confidence seems relatively high that the storm's center will continue to track northwest away from Florida. Monitoring by satellite, buoy reports and aircraft will allow for a more accurate prediction of landfall in the next 48 hours.

IR Satellite image 345 p.m. CDT August 26, 2012
Source: NOAA

Craig Edwards

Isaac uncertainty continues; Pensacola or New Orleans? Tampa escapes the worst?

Posted at 11:29 PM on August 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Major model flip flop in Saturday night runs

GFS moves west - New Orleans a possible target?

European model moves east favoring Pensacola, FL

Wide "cone of uncertainty" heading through Sunday

Source: NOAA/NHC

Isaac giving forecasters fits:

Let's face it...Isaac is one tough storm to get a handle on.

Saturday's model runs threw more curves into the forecast. The GFS had been steering Isaac east toward Tampa, but did a complete flip Saturday and now tracks Isaac toward New Orleans Tuesday.

Source: WxUnderground

In fact, the GFS suggests a possible Category 3 hurricane could slam into the Louisiana coast Tuesday...and linger near New Orleans with a major levee testing storms surge from the east. Given the radical change in the GFS...it's reasonable to question the solution...but still worthy of respecting that possible outcome.

The more reliable European model had a "New Orleans solution" a few days ago...but now keeps Isaac on track for the Florida Panhandle.

Source: WxUnderground

The bottom line?

This storm is still giving forecast models fits...and it's too early still to say with great certainty where he will come ashore.

Isaac shows every sign of spending Sunday flaring into a significant hurricane over the warm, unhindered waters of the Gulf of Mexico and growing into a Category 2 hurricane by Monday. Looking at the track, it's not out of the question Isaac may reach Category 3 status by Tuesday before landfall.

Source: NOAA

Most of the tracks now take Isaac well west of Tampa, but that's not to say Tampa won't see any inclement weather.

Source: http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09

Still, Sunday may tell whether the RNC pulled the plug too soon. Does RNC have a meteorologist on staff anyway?

It's always smart to focus on "the cone" and not the exact track forecast with hurricanes.

Isaac is proving that point more than most storms.

PH

Isaac grows stronger; Tampa to Mobile Bay "forecast cone?"

Posted at 3:53 PM on August 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Just west of Tampa Monday PM GFS model forecast for Hurricane Isaac

Near Mobile Bay at 10am Wednesday European Model forecast for Isaac landfall

Isaac still a threat to Florida - Including the Keys, Miami, Fort Myers/Sanibel and Tampa

Weekend split for Minnesota - Sunday looks like the nicer day

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Forecasting Isaac: A complicated storm

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are growing some extra grey hairs this week.

When it comes to forecasting hurricanes, Isaac is proving to be a challenge. Here's why Isaac is a complicated storm.

1) Multiple centers: Isaac has shown more than one circulation center over the past 3 days, making a fix on his position difficult. This is important because the models need an accurate "initial" location of the center of Isaac to generate a more accurate track.

2) Late bloomer: Isaac has been slow to develop, and has lingered as a tropical storm for 2 days now. Because of this it's tougher to get a sense for how well organized Isaac will eventually get. It's been tough to get a read on Isaac's eventual storm geometry.

Source: NOAA

3) Tough terrain: Isaac's probable forecast track takes the circulation through some high mountains in Haiti and eastern Cuba. That makes it difficult to know with any certainty how strong Isaac will be when it eventually emerges into the Florida straits Sunday or early Monday.

4) Dueling models: Two of the most accurate hurricane forecast models continue to be at odds over Isaac's eventual track.

The GFS insists that Isaac will track through south Florida & the Keys, and will be close enough to Tampa to be a player there Monday.

Source: WxUnderground

The European model (usually the most accurate) has consistently held the western track, and steers the storm into the open Gulf away from Tampa toward Mobile Bay.

Source: WxUnderground

The bulk of other forecast models lie in between these two solutions.

Source: http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09

A shift of even 50 miles could mean the difference between "no big deal" in Tampa and "hurricane conditions."

Let's hope the GFS and Euro come together on an accurate track this weekend.

Minnesota Weekend Forecast: Split decision

Thursday night's sky & lightning show was impressive.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

The heaviest storms formed and boomed west of the metro. There were a few damage reports, as you can see from the NWS summary below.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

The next frontal system pushes in Saturday, with another chance of scattered T-Storms. So far SPC has not issued and "risk areas" for Minnesota, but I can't rule out an isolated severe cell or two late Saturday PM & evening.

Source: NOAA via College of DuPage Weather Lab

Sunday looks like the sunnier nicer day this weekend.

Enjoy!

PH

Isaac trends west; Tampa breathing easier? New Orleans in play?

Posted at 5:44 PM on August 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Westward trend in Isaac's track in latest forecast models

Tampa breathing easier? With each passing model run

Pensacola, Mobile Bay & New Orleans landfall chances increasing

European model leading the way on westward trend

Scattered showers in Metro & Minnesota into early Friday

Near 90 for the metro and southern Minnesota by Friday afternoon?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Tracking Isaac:

The latest model trends support a westward shift in the official NHC track forecast from Isaac.

Source: NOAA/NHC

It now appears more likely that Isaac will clip Haiti Friday, cross Cuba sometime this weekend, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and gain hurricane strength on Monday.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

NOAA'a National Hurricane Center explains the shift...and lingering track uncertainties in their forecast discussion.

THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT...SHOWING A WEST-NW MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.

DESPITE THE GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. THE 96-120 HR POINTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

Here's a great way to visualize the westward trend in the "official" NHC tracks over the past few days.

The European model remains the westernmost solution, and now takes a strong Isaac to the Louisiana Coast next Thursday.

Source: WxUnderground

The European is among the most reliable models in the past few years for hurricane tracks. The USA's GFS model is a close 2nd.

Source: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

Overall trends favor putting Isaac into the Gulf Monday where Isaac may have some breathing room to grow. The chances of a USA landfall with Isaac look high....probably 80% at this point.

Friday's model runs should be critical in refining Isaac's eventual track and landfall.

PH

Scattered rain & thunder today; Tampa & Mobile Bay still in Isaac's possible path

Posted at 8:19 AM on August 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Scattered rain & thunder possible today in most of Minnesota

Isaac still a threat to RNC in Tampa Monday night (GFS model)

"Mobile Bay" solution painted by Euro Model

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop here

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Thursday thunder?

Look for a mixed weather bag today for the start of the 2012 edition of the Minnesota State Fair.

Spotty am showers may give way to mixed PM sun...and another batch of PM & evening T-Storms.

Highs should crack the 80s, and it may actually feel like August for a while today.

I'll be out at the MPR building on The Daily Circuit with Craig Edwards from 10am to 11am today. Hope to see you there!

Isaac still aiming at eastern Gulf of Mexico:

The latest model runs still seem to favor Hurricane Isaac approaching the Florida Keys late Sunday, then churning into the eastern Gulf by Monday.

Source: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

The overnight GFS run has Isaac just southwest west of Tampa by midnight Tuesday.

Source: WxUnderground

The Euro has shifted slightly east, but still favors the westernmost solution with a landfall near Pensacola or Mobile Bay.

Source: WxUnderground

Either way Isaac will be a player early next week in Florida and the Gulf.

Stay tuned!

PH

Isaac gets complicated: Two circulation centers; Forecast tracks diverge

Posted at 5:23 PM on August 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Dual centers observed today inside Tropical Storm Isaac

Growing divergence in various model forecast tracks

"Cone of uncertainty" grows bigger for Isaac

Westward trend? Overall in many model forecast tracks

Gulf of Mexico increasingly "in play" for Isaac landfall

Occasional rain & thunder & some sunshine for the opening weekend of the 2012 Minnesota State Fair

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Isaac gets complicated:

I had a sense the tightly focused model forecast tracks yesterday were too good to be true.

Tropical Storm Isaac is throwing forecasters some curve balls today.

Two distinct centers of rotation (or vorticity) appeared inside Isaac Wednesday. The twin centers are "dueling" for overall control of what will eventually become the center of Isaac.

Source: NOAA

Satellite images show one strong center swirling in the southwest part of the storm. A second defined center spins to the northeast.

Source: NOAA

The appearance of twin centers poses some problems for computer models.

-Which center will ultimately emerge as the center of Isaac?

-What will the exact position of that center be in 24 hours?

-How strong will that center be?

-Which center is the model supposed to track?

Twin centers; multiple solutions:

The emergence of two vorticity centers in Isaac has thrown a major monkey wrench into the forecast tracks for various forecast models.

What was a "tight grouping" and high degree of consensus on forecast tracks Tuesday, turned into a wide range of possible tracks and intensities by late Wednesday.

Source: NOAA via WxUnderground

The "official" NHC track shifts Isaac slightly west.

Source: NHC

It appears that different models have locked onto the different centers with Isaac, and tracked them accordingly.

The NAM has grabbed the northern swirl and takes Isaac on a northward track, taking the storm east of Florida.

Source: NOAA/NCEP

The Euro continues the trend of favoring a left leaning track, and steers a powerful Isaac into the central Gulf. This track would pose a bigger threat to New Orleans than Tampa.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

The GFS plays the middle, with a potent hurricane sideswiping Florida's Gulf Coast Monday & Tuesday.

Source: NOAA/NCEP

With so many possible track solutions that either bring Isaac over storm disrupting mountains or keep him over storm supercharging warm open water, accurate intensity forecasts become almost futile at this point.

Source: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012_inten.png

Overall the forecast for Isaac now looks like somebody just took a neatly stacked deck of cards and threw them into the air.

We may need another 24 hours at least to see which card comes up.

Stay tuned. Tracking Isaac may get more complicated before a credible soultion is clear.

PH

Latest models: Growing risk "Hurricane" Isaac targets Florida

Posted at 9:13 AM on August 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to organize today in the Atlantic

Hurricane Hunters flying missions into Isaac today

NHC: Isaac likely to reach hurricane strength by tomorrow

Tight Grouping: Models remarkably consistent on focusing track near Florida Monday

Outlier: European the "left most" model takes Isaac into central Gulf of Mexico

Tampa Nightmare Scenario? Latest GFS runs favor a "Tampa direct hit" Monday night

Source: NOAA

Isaac Increases Florida Focus:

Even after 25 years of forecasting weather there are still times when the models shock me. Today is one of those days.

The latest model runs paint an increasingly bad picture for Florida and the possibility of a direct hit from a Category 2 or higher Hurricane Isaac Monday & Tuesday.

With each passing model run the risk grows for the Sunshine State. Here's some of my latest thinking on today's trends.

Remarkable continuity in hurricane tracks:

I can't remember seeing models so tightly grouped 5 days out with a potential hurricane track. The vast majority of models come up with the same solution: Hurricane Isaac will cross somewhere over Florida Monday & Tuesday, then probably curve up the east coast.

Source: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

The outlier? The European Model, which steers Isaac into the Gulf, a more westward track. At this point, NHC thinks the GFS and other models have it right.

THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS.

-A very "costly" track?

I'm sure the weather war rooms at major insurance giants are mobilizing for Florida today.

The forecast models favor tracks and intensity scenarios that produce very "expensive outcomes" for Florida.

The eventual track of Isaac will be critical, but a north-northwest track over part or all of Florida from a category 2 or 3 Isaac is growing more likely by the hour.

This potentially brings damaging winds into play on a line from Miami through Orlando and Tampa...all of Florida's major metro areas.

If track forecasts hold, we could be taking about the "most expensive" hurricane in Florida history.

Tampa "Nightmare Scenario?"

For years hurricane experts have warned us. Tampa is one of the most vulnerable cities in the USA to a direct hit from a major hurricane.

Source: NOAA "Hurricane Hunters" Facebook page

This will probably (and hopefully) change, but today's GFS runs paint a very scary picture for Tampa Monday night.

The GFS tracks a very strong hurricane right up Florida's Gulf Coast with the center of a (possible Category 3?) hurricane just west of Tampa by midnight Tuesday morning.

Source: NOAA

If that happens, the storm surge into Tampa Bay could be incredible. The geography of Tampa Bay makes it extremely vulnerable storm surge. A major hurricane with the center just west of Tamps is the scenario forecasts have warned about for years.

If major evacuations are called for, Tampa's geography makes it almost impossible to get everybody out of town to safer locations. In fact, possible last hour variations in the eventual track of Isaac may make it impossible to tell residents where to evacuate to.

For the sake of everybody in Tampa Monday night, I hope the models are very wrong.

-Prepare now; and hope for changes:

We have friends in the Tampa area and we're reaching out ot them today.

My advice is simple. Start hurricane preps today, and don't wait until the weekend. If the path changes, that's great. If evacuations are called for this weekend it's going to be increasingly tough to get out of town & get supplies by then.

There is still time for a major shift in the forecast track of Isaac. Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst... as they say.

Hurricane Hunters Critical:

One aspect of hurricane science is that track forecasts are generally much more accurate than intensity forecasts.

The forecast models are designed to track storms, but have a much harder time nailing intensity.

Hurricane Intensity fluctuations are rapid and can be extreme. We can get fixes on position easily from weather satellites, but satellite techniques for intensity estimates are less accurate.

Source: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012_inten.png

That's why data from Hurricane Hunter fights are so critical. Aircraft instruments and "dropsondes" provide real time accurate data in hurricane wind & pressure fields, and can pinpoint hurricane intensity.

So called "eyewall replacement cycles" are poorly understood and not well forecast. These cycles change the intensity of hurricanes dramatically in just a few hours.

If you're looking for some heroes the next few days as Isaac approaches, how about a dedicated group of men & women who fly right into incoming hurricanes?

Source: NOAA

Stay tuned....Isaac may still throw us some curves. But right now it looks increasingly like Florida is at risk for a major blow from Isaac Monday & Tuesday.

PH

Tropical Storm "Isaac" growing threat to Cuba, Florida? Models tightly grouped

Posted at 6:19 PM on August 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Isaac named Tuesday by National Hurricane Center

9th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Haiti & Cuba likely hurricane targets by Friday & Saturday

Growing risk for Florida with each passing model run

"Isaac" is Born:

You'll hear a lot about Isaac in the next week.

Already making national news headlines, Isaac was officially named the 9th tropical storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tuesday.

Spinning over warm open water under a favorably light "shear" environment, Isaac should flare and become a hurricane sometime late Wednesday or Thursday.

Heading West:

Current movement and all model tracks steer Isaac west over the next 48 hours.

The official NHC track brings (Category 2) Hurricane Isaac to near Cuba by Sunday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

One interesting development is that the "spaghetti models" are pretty tightly clustered with Isaac. That means the models are in fairly good agreement about the possible track. Still there is considerable variation as you would expect 5-7 days out.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

You don't need to be a forecasting genius to see that many of the solution put Florida in the potential path of Isaac next week.

Take a look at NOAA's GFS run from Tuesday PM. The GFS has been consistent in bringing a potential Hurricane Isaac right over the Florida peninsula next Monday & Tuesday.

The latest soultion? The center of Hurricane Isaac right over Tampa next Monday night.

Source: NOAA/NCEP

Model fantasy? Maybe. The average model track error this far out is still about 400 to 500 miles.

But there is a disturbing consistency about the GFS and the model tracks overall. If I was a betting man and lived in Florida, I'd be taking precautions already and planning for possible hurricane conditions by late Sunday or Monday. With each passing model run, the likelihood of Isaac veering safely away drops.

Stay tuned...this situation needs to be watched very closely.

PH

Potential "Hurricane Isaac" near Florida for RNC next week? GFS model upgrades

Posted at 6:30 PM on August 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

79 degrees high temp at MSP Airport Monday (at 2:59pm)

-1.6 degrees temps at MSP Airport vs. average this month

May 2011 - last cooler than average month in Minnesota

Growing Florida & RNC threat? Still too early to say, but worth watching next 7 days

Hurricane Isaac? Growing chance of a new Hurricane in the Atlantic next 72 hours

500+ miles - average model track error on hurricanes 7 days out

Picture perfect?

Does the weather get any better than Monday in Minnesota?

In my experience as a forecaster, a sun soaked sky and temps in the upper 70s make for what many consider to be "perfect weather." San Diego with lakes? Why not? Minnesota with lakes is plenty good enough for me.

Our winning streak of low humidity and warm temps will run through Wednesday. Summer warmth builds Tuesday & Wednesday as 80 returns.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Let's face it; it just doesn't get any better than this in Minnesota.

State Fair 2012: Big Smiles, full bellies & umbrellas?

I only wish the Fair started Monday....3 days of "perfect weather" with low humidity, no rain and comfy temps might have made for record crowds.

Right now the first weekend of the Fair looks fairly good, but potentially a little wet at times.

The latest GFS runs (still) suggest a slow moving low pressure system that could bring scattered showers & T-Storms Thursday (possibly favoring Thursday night) into Friday morning.

Source: NOAA via College of DuPage Weather Lab

Low #1 slides east for a nicer Friday, then a second wave brings the threat of more scattered rain Saturday & Sunday.

Temps look a bit warmer than I thought last week...with highs in the 80s Thursday through Saturday.

Eyeing "Isaac?" Potential Hurricane "Isaac" threat to SE USA & RNC next week?

Future "Hurricane Isaac?"
Source: NOAA via WxUnderground

This falls under the category of "way too early to say for sure" with any meteorological credibility.

Keep in mind that average model errors for hurricane tracks are 500+ miles 7 days out.

That said, there is a growing trend in the forecast models that suggest we may see "Hurricane Isaac" forming n the next 3 days, and that the system may pose a threat to the southeast USA by next week.

Source: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

A couple of the models (including the GFS) suggest a hurricane near or over Florida by next Monday-Tuesday.

GFS Modle: Hurricane near Florida early next week?
Source: NOAA/NCEP

With average track errors of 500+ miles 7 days out, "Isaac" could end up anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the Carolina's next week.

WxUnderground hurricane expert Jeff Masters elaborates.

This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L.

The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles.

We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.

The RNC kicks off next Monday in Tampa. No doubt they'll be keeping a close eye on what could be Hurricane Isaac.

GFS Model upgrades:

File this under "not a moment too soon."

NOAA's NCEP has recently made some upgrades to the Global Forecast System models. (GFS)

The GFS is NOAA's primary "medium range" forecast model that goes out to 16 days.

Here are the (welcome) details from NOAA:

Significant Improvement Ahead for Weather and Climate Forecast Accuracy

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction - a division of NOAA's National Weather Service - recently upgraded the operational Global Forecast System, which is run four times per day and produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance. The GFS is the backbone of the National Weather Service's global weather and climate forecasting capability.

On May 22, the upgrade provided a new method for assimilating the billions of pieces of atmospheric data collected daily from Earth observations and satellites. These data are used to describe the current state of the atmosphere, the important first step to running any weather forecast model.

During extensive preoperational testing, the new system produced more accurate forecasts out to 16 days. It also improved hurricane track forecast accuracy, general global weather predictions, and forecasts of stratospheric ozone, which affects the amount of skin‐damaging radiation that hits Earth's surface and also affects climate.

The new hybrid system is the result of an intensive, three‐year collaboration between scientists at NCEP, the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), NASA and the University of Oklahoma. Further system improvements will be developed over the next few years through continued collaboration between NCEP and ESRL, the University of Maryland and the University of Oklahoma.

Source: NOAA

The GFS and the European Model are the primary "competitors" in medium range forecast that extend out 1-2 weeks. I've worked with the Euro model since the 1990s during my days at WGN-TV with Tom Skilling, We both agree the Euro has some advantages in certain seasonal situations over the GFS.

Let's hope the GFS upgrades will be as good as advertised.

PH

Scattered rain & thunder today; "Aug-tember" 60s ahead? East Coast hurricane chances?

Posted at 9:05 AM on August 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Wet Wednesday - Cooler today with scattered showers & some thunder

No Risk Probably not severe today; No SPC risk areas for Minnesota

"Aug-tember" 70s into this weekend...60s by next weekend?

Hurricane Watch: Ernesto in Mexico

GFS: Hurricane potential near East Coast week of August 20th?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Pattern Change Arrives: Much cooler with hit & miss showers:

A well advertised (and mostly welcome) pattern change to cooler weather has finally arrived in Minnesota.

Low pressure slides through today and early Thursday. The low is not terribly strong, but is enough to trigger scattered showers & a few (probably non severe) T-Storms today. SPC is not sufficiently impressed to paste any risk areas over Minnesota today.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Overall rainfall totals look to be under .25"....but some areas may pick up more especially north of the metro.

Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com

The best chance of a .50"+ soaker? From Detroit Lakes to Brainerd to Duluth today.

"Aug-tember" on the way:

After a record 80 on St. Patty's Day and one of the hotter summers on record so far, it's hard to fathom a fall like weather pattern in August. The weather maps have a funny way of balancing out over time.

It looks like this August may feel more like September at times. Could we see the first cooler than average month in 14 months? May 2011 was the last time we logged a cooler than average month in Minnesota.

Looking at the models into next week, I see highs in the 70s the next few days for the metro and virtually all of Minnesota. The cooler Canadian high pressure system will nose in with northeast breezes through Sunday. Lows may dip into the upper 30s in northeast Minnesota, and there is a real possibility of scattered frost by this weekend in some of the cooler nooks & crannies like Embarrass & Biwabik.

We should warm up again for a few days next week...and upper 80s are again possible with an increased thunder threat in the middle of next week.

Then a stronger cold front should drop south by the weekend of August 18th. If the GFS verifies, highs may stay in the 60s by the weekend of the 18th. That's about average for late September, and will be a real "departure" from what we're used to this summer.

GFS Model: 60s next weekend?
Source: NOAA/http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmsp

People have been asking me all summer "Paul, when is it going to cool off?" The cooler weather is here, but I'm not sure everyone is ready for 60s in August. As we say in the weather biz...."The models giveth, and the models taketh away."

We'll probably squeak out another 90 or 2 this year, but to my slightly trained eye it looks like we're probably done with any sustained stretches of 90+ degree heat.

Stay tuned on that one.

Hurricane season picking up steam?

Tropical Storm Ernesto is battering the Mexican Coast this week. Ernesto has weakened to Tropical Storm status over the Yucatan, but may regain hurricane strength while crossing the Bay of Campeche before slamming into Mexico once again late Thursday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

Meanwhile more frequent disturbances are crossing the open Atlantic. NHC is keeping an eye on these for possible development.

Source: NOAA/NHC

The GFS and other models are picking up on the possibility of a potential hurricane approach somewhere near the eastern USA the week of August 20th in about 10-12 days.

GFS: Notion of a hurricane apppraching the east coast on August 22nd?
Source: NOAA/NCEP

It's way too early to say for sure if the treat is real or just "model-speak", but we are moving into the peak of hurricane season in the next month.

Again...stay tuned.

PH

Turning up the heat

Posted at 6:19 AM on June 25, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Heat, Hurricanes

On the heels of the historic flooding in northeast Minnesota we will find ourselves knee- deep in heat by the middle of the week. Enjoy this delightful summer day as the temperatures steadily climb to a peak in the lower and middle 90s on Wednesday afternoon.

4PM CDT temperatures on Wednesday. Still time to reserve a spot IN your favorite lake.
Source: Twisterdata.com

Significant rainfall is not seen for Minnesota this week but the chance for showers increases over the weekend.

Last week I visited with Steve Buan of NOAA's North Central River Forecast Center. We chatted about the disastrous rainfall in Duluth. We recalled the flash flood events of recent years, including southeast Minnesota, northern Iowa and southern WIsconsin in June 2008 -- which included Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the Zumbro River and Lake Delton, Wisconsin. Read more about the June 2008 flooding here.

Nashville, Tenn. was devastated by a two-day flash flood event in May 2010. The details on this heavy rainfall event can be probed from this link.

Nasvhville, TN May 2010
Source: wikipedia

Our hydrologic banter concluded with the question, "What city will be next to experience flooding rains?" A flood expert with the NWS in Indianapolis shared two observations with me in the 1980s: A drought is often broken by a flood and a rainfall of six inches or more occurs somewhere in Indiana every summer.

Tropical Storm Debby remains off the coast of the Florida panhandle. Computer models suggest the storm's circulation will not strengthen into a hurricane. Forecasters are keeping an eye on the potential rainfall in the southeast portion of the country. At 5 a. m. EDT the winds in Pensacola, FL were from the north at 13 mph.

Find a cool spot early on Wednesday.

Craig Edwards

Free Wireless Emergency Alerts coming soon; Hurricane season starts Friday

Posted at 5:30 PM on May 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, Severe weather

Free Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) coming in June 2012.

Activated by local cell tower - a more effective way of getting warnings to those in the storm's path?

Free with all WEA capable devices (WEA "capable" list link below)

2012 Hurricane Season begins Friday, June 1st

"Near Normal" Atlantic Season according to latest NOAA forecast

4 to 8 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin this year (NOAA forecast)

1 to 3 "Major Hurricanes" according to NOAA

Quick look forecast: Free AC this week!

Source: Twin Cities NWS

WEA: Coming to a cell phone near you

A new (FREE) way to get weather alerts is coming to a phone near you in June.

FEMA/Homeland Security is trotting out "Wireless Emergency Alerts" (WEA) next month. The feature is automated and free, and will relay various weather warnings and local/national emergency alerts and Amber alerts directly to "WEA capable" cell phones.

The wireless industry, The FCC, and FEMA will roll-out the WEA's (Wireless Emergency Alerts) system nationwide this year.

The NWS will start utilizing this by pushing extreme weather warnings over the system in June 2012.

Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings and several other high-end warnings will go direct to wireless users in an affected county automatically if their device is compatible.

The system appears to have one huge advantage over current weather warning apps. The warnings will be delivered to specific locations by cell towers that are localized to the threat area. You'll only get the warning if you're in the affected area. If it works, that's a pretty neat (and effective) feature.

Here are the types of alerts the system will send out.

• Extreme weather warnings
• Local emergencies requiring evacuation or immediate action
• AMBER Alerts
• Presidential Alerts during a national emergency

As for severe weather warnings, here's the list of what NWS will send.

Source: NWS

I'm a little surprised that severe thunderstorms warnings are not on ths list. Perhaps the sheer volume of warnings would overwhelm the system?

You can "opt out" of all of the alerts except the Presidential Emergency Messages.

Here's the link to the list of currently "WEA capable" devices.

Let's see how this rolls out, what advantages and bugs may appear.

Did I mention it's free?

Hurricane Season 2012 opens Friday:

Friday is June 1st (how did that happen?) and the "official" start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The various forecasts for Atlantic activity are rolling in from NOAA, CSU etc. I'll spare you my usual rant on why I think there is little value in "seasonal" hurricane forecasts. But if you want you can take a look at my reasoning.

NOAA is predicting a "near normal" season in 2012. Here's an excerpt.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA's 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a near-normal season is most likely. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

This outlook reflects the possibility of competing climate factors, combined with several circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) features that suggest a less active season compared to many in recent years. Favoring an above-normal season is the ongoing conditions that have been associated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, combined with expected near-average SSTs across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region, or MDR).

A potentially competing climate factor is the possible development of El Niño during the season. If El Niño develops, it could make conditions less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, thus shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range.

If they persist, two other factors that are now present could also compete with conditions associated with the high-activity era. These are: 1) Enhanced vertical wind shear across the MDR, and 2) Cooler-than-average SSTs in the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:

9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.

It only takes one major hurricane making landfall in the USA to ruin your day/week/month/year.

To me the real value of hurricane forecasts lie in the short term products put out by NHC. NHC provides tremendous value with track forecasts 3-5 days out. We're still learning about what makes hurricane intensity change so quickly, and skill levels are still evolving on hurricane intensity forecasts.

Our changing climate seems to be redefining all kinds of "seasons" these days. Since we're already into "Beryl" before the "official" start of hurricane season maybe NOAA needs to consider changing the dates for hurricane season to reflect the increased frequency of tropical cyclone outside the June1st-Nov 30th window?

Here's a great animation of Hurricane Andrew as it slammed into Florida and Louisana in 1992. I remember working that Sunday evening at WCCO-TV when Andrew came ashore with devestating effects near Miami.

Hurricane Andrew in 1992
Source: NOAA

Enjoy the free AC and "good sleeping weather this week!

PH

Frosty AM, Thursday rain; Tuesday flakes? 7-day hurricane tracks in 2013?

Posted at 5:34 PM on March 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Frost, Hurricanes

37 degrees possible at MSP Airport Thursday morning

Frost possible - even likely in the north & east metro early Thursday

Frost likely north & east of a Fargo-Alex-St. Cloud-NE Metro-La Crosse line

"Hard freeze" likely (28 degrees or colder) for Walker-Duluth-Iron Range & International Falls

Thursday rain moves in from west to east

Severe risk for parts of Iowa and the central plains

Near 80 degrees this weekend??

Snow flakes possible by next Tuesday?

Wet windy & colder early next week

7-Day Hurricane tracks from NHC in 2013?

Latest from 2012 Hurricane Conference this week in Orlando

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Frost recipe: Frosty start Thursday!

Normally we wouldn't even bother writing about the potential for frost in late March...it's a given.

But our last freezing temps at MSP Airport were on March 9th, when the mercury hit 15 degrees.

Temps probably won't dip to 32 at MSP tonight, but with a low near 37, frost is possible in the metro...and even likely in the northeast metro and further north & east in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

A hard freeze is likely in northern Minnesota.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

The old school definition of a "hard freeze" was at least 3 hours of temps at 28 degrees or colder. With temps at those levels for extended time, sensitive plants are more likely to suffer damage. The good news? I'm told most of our hardy shrubs and trees that are leafing out will be fine even with a freeze. Any prematurely blooming flowers could be a different story.

Thursday showers:

The next wave of low pressure spins in Thursday. Look for clouds and showers to increase form the west during the PM hours, and peak rainfall should arrive Thursday evening.

Most models favor anywhere from .20" to .50" of rain by Friday morning.

Source: ISU

Severe risk south:

While a clap of thunder is possible Thursday evening, SPC does not favor any severe weather for Minnesota.

There is a slight risk for severe storms in parts of Iowa and the Midwest Thursday.

Source: SPC

80 this weekend?

Southerly winds will pump in warmer air this weekend. The latest indications are that we could approach 80 both Saturday and Sunday in much of southern Minnesota!

Early spring signs all over the Midwest:

The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MWCC) has some timely details on just how unusual our early spring is...and what the impacts are.

"Besides early planting, the warm temperatures are causing a variety of other impacts across the Midwest. The unseasonably warm and dry conditions in parts of the Midwest have increased the risk for wildfires in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, rain over the past few days should ease the risk for wildfires in parts of this region.

Apple and peach trees are blooming in Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. The last year fruit trees bloomed this early in the Midwest was in 2007, which resulted in a late freeze on Easter weekend (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/2007-apr-coldeventhtml), an event that is now leaving orchard owners nervous that a similar freeze could happen again this year. The warm nighttime temperatures are also inhibiting the production of syrup from maple trees in Wisconsin."

Windy, wet & colder Monday & Tuesday?

The GFS (which has not been terribly reliable lately) is insisting on a fairly strong low pressure storm system swirling in the Upper Midwest Monday & Tuesday.

In that scenario, we could see showers and storms evolve by late Sunday night into Monday...and even enough cold air swirling south behind the system to spawn some wet snow flakes by Tuesday.

The system is still evolving...so stay tuned. What seems certain at this pint is that we'll go from shorts to jackets in about 36hours between Sunday PM and Tuesday morning!

Hurricane Conference: 7-Day NHC track forecasts in 2013?

Here's some breaking news from this week's hurricane conference in Orlando.

NHC may start issuing 7-Day track forecasts for hurricanes in 2013.

Source: TWC via Jonhathan Erdman

The current forecasts goe to 5 days....but widely available "spaghetti models" track storms much further out with varying degrees of accuracy.

Hurricane track forecast errors have been cut in half since 1990, and are much better than intensity forecasts.

CSU forecasts this season cite cooler Atlantic Ocean temps as a reason for a below average forecast in 2012. As I've posted here before, I'm not a big fan of seasonal hurricane forecast. They have been horrible may of the past few years...and give a false sense of alarm or security.

Even in a slow season, it only takes one or two big hurricanes making landfall to do great damage. Even in an active season, most or al of the storms may not make a USA landfall...which is exactly what happened in 2010.

The real value is in short term, updated hurricane forecasts as they happen from NHC. Those guys/gals are good...and they save lives!

June 1st marks the start of hurricane season!

PH

Best fall colors in 10 years? Tropical trouble brewing again

Posted at 5:27 PM on September 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall color, Hurricanes

Here's some breaking news for fall color fans.

According to the Minnesota DNR this may be the best fall color display in Minnesota in 10 years!

It turns out the combination of ample summer rains, combined with our sunny days and cool nights may be just right to get the color to pop this fall.

Here's the pertainent info from MN DNR.

DNR predicts best fall color season in 10 years
(Released September 8, 2011)

Minnesotans are encouraged to keep the camera batteries charged and to not put the tent or the picnic basket away just yet, because the upcoming fall color season could be the best it has been in 10 years, according to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR).

"With adequate rain during the growing season for two consecutive years and recent weather patterns that have included the ideal combination of warm, sunny days and cool evenings, we're predicting an especially vivid display of color across the state in the weeks ahead," said Jana Albers, DNR forest health specialist.

Here's Thursday's fall color report. Some splashes of color are now beginning to show in the drought stressed regions of Minnesota.

Colors will increase over the next few weeks and typically peak in the next month.

Hurricane Season 2011: More tropical trouble ahead?

Don't look now, but the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2011 is quietly brewing into a troublesome affair.

Hurricane Irene slammed into the northeast with as much as 7 billion in damage and devastating floods.

Tropical Storm Lee snuck up through the Gulf of Mexico delivering a swath of heavy rains, (over 10" in some areas) and storm damage from Louisiana through the southeast and into Pennsylvania and New York, where mass evacuations are now underway due to flooding.

Flooded roads in Pennsylvania. (AP Photo)

Now, It looks like what will soon become Hurricane Nate may bring trouble to the Gulf of Mexico. With weak and erratic steering currents, where Nate goes may be a wild card. With divergent model track solutions the threat level is growing anywhere from the Mexican Coast to Louisiana and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Nate could sit, spin and strengthen in the Gulf for a few days and then deliver a flooding deluge somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Depending on the eventual track, there is a chance that drought stricken eastern Texas could benefit from Nate's rainfall,

The there's Maria. The system is forecast to make a close approach to the southeast USA, before rapidly turning away to the northeast just before hitting land. Unlike Nate, track models are tightly grouped and insist Maria will turn to sea before hitting the USA. But it's a little close for comfort at this point.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

Frosty start to September in northeast MN:

The details from my MPR colleague Mark Seeley.

Topic: Some early September frosts

"The lower dewpoints and milder temperatures this week have been welcomed by most Minnesota citizens. But, for some northern residents the cooler temperatures brought an end to the growing season. Over September 5-6 (Mon-Tue) this week frost occurred in a number of locations, including: Big Fork (32 F), Hibbing (32 F), Orr (32 F), International Falls (31 F), Cook (30 F), Isabella (29 F), Crane Lake (28 F), Brimson (28 F), and Embarrass (26 F)."

New MN wind speed record?

From Mark's Weather Talk newsletter.

Topic: Wrestling with a new state wind speed record

"During the early morning hours of September 1, 2011 a severe thunderstorm was passing over northwestern Minnesota. Shortly after 3 am the Road Weather Information System managed by Mn/DOT in Donaldson near the Kittson and Marshall County line registered a wind gust of 121 mph. This measurement was substantiated by damages inflicted in the surrounding landscape by such strong winds. Since that time the National Weather Service, Minnesota State Climatology Office, and National Climatic Data Center have been trying to determine if this measurement represents a new Minnesota state record for wind speed. The old state record wind speed was 117 mph from a thunderstorm near Alexandria, MN back on July 19, 1983.

There are many problems associated with determining a wind speed record. For example, it is estimated from earlier storm surveys in the state that winds stronger than 120 mph have been associated with some tornadoes in the state. But an instrumental record of the wind speed does not exist. Secondly the wind instruments (anemometers) used over time to measure wind speed have varied in placement and precision. The elevation above ground is important in the measurement of wind speed, as is the sampling interval (3 second, 5 seconds, 30 seconds, etc). The current system used by the National Weather Service is an Ice Free Wind (IFW) sensor, called a sonic anemometer (no moving parts) and measures wind in 1 second intervals, averaging every 3 seconds. The 121 mph wind at Donaldson was measured by an R.M. Young Wind Monitor (aerovane model 05103) which is a mechanical, propeller type instrument. I think it has an accuracy of plus or minus 1 percent and a measurement range up to 224 mph (though lesser wind might destroy its mast)."

PH

Lee soaks the Gulf Coast; USA Hottest summer ever?

Posted at 5:35 PM on September 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Some dry air working into Tropical Storm Lee may have spared New Orleans from the threat of 20" rain totals, but the storm continues to soak the area.

Meanwhile high wind and waves pounded Lake Pontchartrain on the north side of The Big Easy.

The slow moving Tropical Storm will deliver a 1-2 punch to the Gulf Coast:

1) Torrential rainfall with rainfall totals likely over 10" will flood parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

2) A persistent east wind, storm surge and pounding waves will hammer the Gulf Coast for the next 3 days.

NOAA 5-day rainfall forecast: a 24" bull's eye over New Orleans?

Katia & Lee: Active tropical display

Check out the Atlantic IR loop below. On the left, Tropical Storm Lee swirls in the Gulf of Mexico. On the right, Hurricane Katia churns westward in the Atlantic.

USA: Hottest summer ever in 2011?

The data won't be released until mid-September, but there are some rumblings that the summer of 2011 may go down as the hottest on record for the USA.

I heard a representative from the Office of the Texas State Climatologist on the Weather Channel Friday hint that preliminary data may show that the summer of 2011 was the hottest on record for the USA.

This would not be a big shocker considering the huge number of records set this summer in the central and southern plains.

Stay tuned for some torrid numbers coming out in the next few weeks.

Labor Day Weekend: A cooler forecast

Another holiday weekend is upon us. After a steamy 94 Thursday and a hot summer, this weekend will have a decidedly different feel.

Look for highs generally in the 60s and 70s this weekend. Lows will dip into the 40s and even 30s in far northeast Minnesota by Labor Day morning.

Scattered showers will be around Saturday, but the rest of the weekend should be dry.

Sunday will feature gusty NW winds of 15-30 mph, and choppy lakes.

Labor Day looks to be the pick of the weekend. Plenty of sun, light winds and highs in the upper 60s north to low 70s south.

Have a great holiday weekend!

PH

2011's last 90? Cooler weekend; T.S. Lee: 20" in New Orleans?

Posted at 4:39 PM on September 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

94 degree high in the Twin Cites Thursday

(Hottest day, and 1st 90 degree day since July 31st.)

15 days at or above 90 degrees in 2011 at MSP

13 days on average at or above 90 at MSP annually

If you like it hot, I hope you enjoyed what was likely the hottest day of the rest of 2011 Thursday!

It may also have been the last time the mercury hits 90 in the Twin Cities this year.

September averages 1 day of 90 degree heat each year in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels swamped Minnesota with the brief heat wave of September 1st 2011.

90 degree heat surges north ahead of low pressure Thursday.

Dew points in the 70s pool opver Minnesota Thursday.

Here are some selected readings at 3pm Thursday.

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER SUNNY 88 72 58 S10 29.79F HX 94
RED WING MOSUNNY 91 72 52 S9 29.72F HX 98
STANTON SUNNY 90 71 52 SE9 29.72F HX 96
DODGE CENTER SUNNY 88 72 58 S8 29.77F HX 94
WINONA SUNNY 93 70 46 CALM 29.78S HX 99
PRESTON SUNNY 94 70 46 SW7 29.82R HX 100

Cool Front Friday:

You'll notice falling temps and humidity levels Friday, as cool front delivers a much more comfortable air mass courtesy of Canada.

The front will trigger a few scattered storms as it moves south. There is a (very) slight risk of a severe storm, but overall dynamics are weak.

Tropical trouble brewing: T.S. Lee may dump heavy rain on Gulf Coast.

NHC gives the growing disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Lee in the next 48 hours.

"A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE."

Forecast models are moving "Lee" slowly toward the north.

The slow movement means the central Gulf Coast will likely get hammered with torrential rainfall over the next few days. Southern Louisiana, including New Orleans, and Mississippi could pick up 10" to 20" rain totals.

Meanwhile Katia continues to churn westward in the Atlantic. The latest trends in steering currents keep Katia moving more west than north. NHC has adjusted the forecast track westward to reflect the left leaning trend in guidance.

That will bring Katia dangerously close to the Carolina coast late next week. Most of the models stil insist on then recurving Katia and accelerating the storm to the north, east of the U.S. mainland.

But if the track stays any farther west Katia could become a threat to the eastern USA.

Stay tuned!

PH

Summer returns: 96 Thursday - then 40's by Labor Day?

Posted at 8:00 AM on August 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Welcome the Minnesota weather roller coaster!

71 degree high at MSP at 11:49am Tuesday.
(Coolest high temps in 68 days since June 25th when it was 68 degrees!)

66 degrees with drizzle by 5pm Tuesday

Scattered frost near Ely by Labor Day?

It's that time of year again. A "high amplitude" jet stream pattern will bring some rather dramatic weather changes to Minnesota in the next week, and beyond.

Undulating jet stream pattern ahead. (Image courtesy Weatherbank.)

What meteorologists refer to as a "push-pull" weather pattern will bring a series of warm and cold front through Minnesota. This time of year, there's still plenty of warm summery air to the south, and developing cold air to the north.

As low pressure systems swing through, cold air is pushed in behind, then warm air is pulled up ahead of the next system.

Mid 90s Thursday?

That sets us up for some big weather changes in the next month, with potentially dramatic and extreme temperatures swings.

Only in Minnesota can you go from coconut oil to polar fleece in 72 hours!

Foggy start; then sun returns today:

Labor Day Weekend weather shocker: Fall like cold front still on track?

This may be a shock to the system.

After we've bathed in warmer than average temps for the past 3 months, it looks like temperatures may crash this weekend on gusty northwest winds.

Forecast models develop a potent looking low pressure system will develop right over Minnesota this weekend. That means a likely shot of rain, and the season's first strong late summer (early meteorological fall!) cold front will slam south by Sunday.

Saturday night into Sunday is looking wet, windy and raw at this point, with highs only in the 60s and a gusty northwest wind making it feel like....gulp...50s up north?

With lows in the 40s by Labor Day morning, some parts of Minnesota may literally go from AC to heat in just over 72 hours.

Katia reaching hurricane force:

Tropical Storm Katia should become "Hurricane Katia" today.

The latest hurricane "spaghetti tracks" still steer Katia out to sea east of the USA in about 10 days.

Stay tuned!

PH

Irene's toll in numbers; Dry August; Rain tomorrow?

Posted at 9:06 AM on August 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Sometimes you just can't win.

With criticism flying at everyone from New York City mayor to the media, you'd think Irene had taken a sharp right turn and gone out to sea before hitting the USA.

Instead Irene was, as advertised, the first hurricane to make landfall in the USA in nearly 3 years, and it cut a swath through the most densely populated part of the USA.

We have just witnessed a major success story when it comes to saving life and property. We just pulled off a major, well organized and executed mass evacuation, with a high degree of "situational awareness" thanks to broad media coverage. More on that below, but first a look at Irene's toll through the numbers, (with some of my comments regarding they "hype" accusations with Irene.)

21 people killed by Irene at last count. (Isn't that a major news story all by itself? How much media coverage would we have seen if 21 people had been blown up in Time's Square, or shot in an attack at a local mall?)

4.5 million people without power. (If it was a "blackout" the cable networks would be in nonstop coverage)

7 billion dollars in estimated losses from Irene. (That's billion with a big "B")

9,000 flights cancelled due to the storm

5 places Highway 12 on North Carolina's Outer banks was wiped out by Irene's surge.

2,500 people cut off from the mainland on North Carolina's Outer Banks.

2 landfalls as a hurricane in North Carolina and New Jersey. (Irene barely diminished to Tropical Storm force before a 3rd landfall in Brooklyn, New York.)

University of Wisconsin precipitable water loop shows Irene spinning up the east coast last weekend.

Too much hype?

Some are saying Irene was over-hyped...probably in large part due to the lack of extensive damage in New York City...where much attention was focused. To be fair there were a few "lame" live shots along the coast during the network and cable coverage, with reporters trying to make more of the weather than was actually happening. But you can make the case that the reporters were in the wrong places; most of the real damage with Irene was well inland in the form of downed trees and heavy flooding.

Each storm is different:

One of the lessons from Katrina and other big storms is that each storm is different. Storms evolve in different ways, and have different impacts that you might not anticipate going in.

I remember the night before Katrina hit New Orleans listening to Matt Drudge on the radio poo pooing the "hype" over Katrina as it "weakened" from Cat 5 to Cat 3 before landfall. Then it appeared New Orleans had dodged a bullet...until reports came in about a breach in a major levee. The rest is history.

The real stories of storms and other natural disasters often comes from what systems or structures fail during or after a storm. Who knew for sure the levees would fail in Katrina? How could we anticipate the failure of seven nuclear reactors in Fukushima after the Tsunami? Who knew the Metrodome roof would collapse during last December's "Domebuster" storm?

Meteorologists often stress "situational awareness" and "being prepared" for severe weather. We just witnessed a huge success story with excellent coordination from federal, state and local governments that probably saved numerous lives and property.

And still, some complain about the "hype." Go figure.

Dry August: Next rain Tuesday?

Have you noticed your grass getting a little dry lately? You're not alone...here's why.

3.01" rainfall so far in August at MSP Airport

-.81" vs. average this month

.12" of rain the past 12 days

Dryness is creeping back into parts of Minnesota lately. Check out the latest U.S. Drought Monitor which shows parts of the I-90 corridor and the North Shore sliding into "abnormally dry" conditions.

Our next shot of rain may come Tuesday. An upper wave should be strong enough to trigger scattered showers and T-Storms. Models are hinting at rainfall totals between .50" and 1" from the metro south.

Summery week overall: Labor Day Weekend cold front?

September starts Thursday and Labor Day is next weekend! How did that happen?

Look for the sun and summery weather to return Wednesday and Thursday. We may see highs in the mid to upper 80s Thursday with some humidity.

It appears a "timely" and fairly strong cold front may blast through by next Sunday. It could feel a little like fall around here by the time Labor Day rolls around. Right on cue for back to school.

The longer range pattern shows summer like warmth may return by the following weekend and last through mid-September. But keep in mind September is a month where the jet stream builds "high amplitude" or big north-south undulations. Patterns and weather maps can go through big changes in a hurry. Forecast models can and probably will show high degree of variability next month. Rapid weather changes in weather become more likey in September.

In the mean time enjoy a week that is on balance more like summer than fall!

PH

Irene rakes the coast; 65 million in path; NYC rare direct hit?

Posted at 5:20 PM on August 26, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Here we go.

The hurricane scenario may have dreaded is unfolding this weekend along the east coast.

1km visible image of Irene Friday from NASA Aqua/MODIS satellite

Let's break down some of the many facets of Irene.

Sheer size of Irene the biggest factor:

Irene's sheer size may be the biggest factor is how much damage she eventually does. As many as 65 million people lie in the storms path. Hundreds of thousands of trees may be knocked down from the Carolinas to Maine. Power may be cut to tens of millions.

Storm track:

Hurricane Irene is tracking right along the east coast, and the huge storm is effecting millions in the most densely populated area of the USA.

The suite of spaghetti models continues to be remarkably consistent taking Irene through eastern North Carolina and right along the Jersey Shore into New York City.

A direct hit from a category 1 Hurricane Irene in New York City looks likely at this point.

Even if the center of Irene misses New York, the storm is so large that hurricane force winds (or at least gusts) are almost certain along the entire coast from the Carolina's to New York.

Intensity:

Irene showed signs of dry air intrusion and slight weakening Friday. To my eye however, the CDO with Irene seem to be in up cycle...and further strengthening can't be ruled out before Irene reaches the Carolina coast Saturday.

There are two main reasons why intensity is becoming somewhat of a secondary consideration at this point.

1) The storm is so large that hurricane force wind gusts will be felt over a huge area.

2) The wall of water moving north with Irene (storm surge) is already in motion, and will arrive and flood low lying coastal areas regardless of Irene's eventual intensity at landfall.

New York City: Effects of a direct hit?

There are many scenarios regarding a direct hit of even a Category 1 hurricane on New York City. Not many are good. Here are some of the possible impacts and considerations.

-Storm surge Flooding: Depending on exact storm track, various scenarios put storm surge of 3 to 7 feet along the Jersey Shore and into the New York Harbor system. Add wave up to 9 feet on top of that surge, and you may have significant coastal flooding.

The effects of flooding into New York remain unclear, and potentially dangerous. This kind of scenario doesn't happen often...and the fact is we really don't know how severe the damage and flooding from storm surge will be in New York.

Wind Damage:

So what happens when hurricane force winds batter the tall buildings in New York City? The fact is again, we don't know how extensive the damage will be.

One thing to consider is the increase in wind speeds with height above ground. As you reduce friction above ground, wind speeds will increase.

With category 1 winds of 75+ mph at the ground, you may have category 2 winds of 100mph 10 stories up!

You will also get an increase in wind speeds with the wind tunnel effects between buildings. There could be significant damage to skyscraper windows this weekend, and potentially showers of glass to the streets of New York City.

There are good reasons why mass evacuations are ordered for large areas. We are now living through one great big bad weather experiment!

PH

Irene Alarm: Mass evacuations? Worst in 70 years? NYC Flood?

Posted at 4:59 PM on August 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

The hurricane models have shifted west today, and that's sounding alarm bells from North Carolina through New Jersey, New York City, all the way to New England.

Hurricane Irene is ready to move out of the Bahamas and head for North Carolina.

The new track and intensity forecasts are raising the alarm level of several hurricane experts (and this forecaster) about the growing threat of major storm surge flooding and damage to highly populated coastal areas; including New York City.

(Click to enlarge images)

First, the latest on Irene late Thursday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Irene is already showing the expected intensification as it moves out of the northern Bahamas.

The storm is so large that squalls in spiral rain bands are spinning though Florida.

Track forecasts shift west:

The major development today is that the forecast tracks for Irene have shifted slightly west. This is a big deal, and a major hurricane landfall in North Carolina is now almost certain Saturday.

What's worse, the later tracks bring a Category 2 Irene near or along the Jersey Shore, and perilously close to a rare direct hit on New York City late Sunday.

If that timing works out, the storm could hit at high tide, which could add 5 feet of water to a potential 10-5 foot storm surge.

Below, some eye openeing (and rather alarming) discussion form hurricane expert Jeff Masters and other sources.

Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

"Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane."

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest."

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast

"Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey."

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system

"The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City."

Stay tuned as Irene continues to develop and move toward the eastern USA.

I want to emphasize that it's still too early to make the call on a direct hit for New York City, but the threat is growing with each passing model run. This could very well develop into a major weather disaster.

PH

"Perfect" Fair opener! Irene: Growing threat to New York City?

Posted at 8:16 AM on August 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

You can't write it up any better (batter?) than this for the Minnesota State Fair. It's all sunshine on a stick at the Fair today.

Some opening day numbers may be as close to "weather perfection" as it gets!

State Fair Microcast:

63 degrees at 6am Thursday when the Fairgrounds opened

76 degrees at noon (much warmer in the Food Building for lunch)

82 degrees at 4pm (Thursday's day's high temperature at Ye Old Mill)

73 degrees at 10pm (With a brightly lit Midway)

53 degree average dew point Thursday. (Ideal for human comfort!)

5-10 mph west wind (Great food smells wafting on a gentle breeze)

Synopsis:

A clear comfortable late August high pressure will drift right over Minnesota Thursday. Low humidity will bring clear sunny skies. Light west winds will be almost perfect at the Fair, with temps peaking in the low 80s between 2pm and 6pm.

Does it get any better for day 1 of the Fair? Bring the sunscreen!

Looking ahead the first weekend of the Fair looks pretty great. The best chance of T-Storms appears to be late Saturday night into Sunday.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Irene: "Textbook" hurricane now

This is how they teach hurricanes in weather school.

Consider some of Hurricane Irene's features as she ramps up toward likely Category 4 strength Thursday.

-Large (beautiful?) concentric cloud shield with well established outflow

-Clear eye developing

-Concentric central dense overcast (COD) surrounding the eye

-Warm ocean SST's in the mid 80s to feed the growing storm

"Beautiful Monster?"

Irene looks simply beautiful from GOES satellites 22,000 miles above the earth. But she's a monster underneath.

The storm now shows near perfect symmetry. It's a textbook example of how hurricanes form and grow.

Eyewall replacement cycles:

Now that Irene has a distinct eye, look for so called "eyewall replacement cycles" to begin. This process of building-decaying-replacing the eyewall is one way the storm intensifies.

The good news?

The good news is model trends continue to push Irene further to the east. Florida and Georgia, and most of South Carolina are now outside the cone of possible landfall.

The bad news:

North Carolina's Outer banks still may take a direct hit, and it is looking increasingly likely that Irene may pose a threat for a rare direct hit on New York City Sunday night.

The latest model trends bring Irene to near New York City by Sunday night as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 100mph.

At this point I would say there is a 50-50 chance that Irene may produce significant damage in New York City. The potential for winds of 100mph, 3-5 foot storm surge into the Hudson River and Lower Manhattan is real.

Rare "Heat Burst" hits southwest Iowa Tueday night:

From NWS Des Moines....a rare heat burst spiked temps 15 to 20 degrees in just a few minutes Tuesday night.

Heat Burst Affects Southwest Iowa

"During the evening of August 23, a rare phenomenon known as a heat burst affected portions of southwest Iowa. A heat burst is characterized by a sudden rise in temperature, a drop in humidity, and strong winds that can approach or exceed severe levels. They are associated with high based decaying thunderstorms with a substantial dry layer beneath the base of the storm. As rain from the thunderstorm falls into the underlying dry air, it cools the air immediately around it, which becomes denser than the surrounding air and begins to sink. As this air sinks, it drys and compresses adiabatically, which results in the hot and dry readings recorded with heat bursts."

Observations

A number of weather stations recorded the heat burst as it passed through. The highest wind gust recorded was 60 mph at the Fontanelle schoolnet site, while both the Atlantic AWOS and Fontanelle schoolnet sites recorded a temperature of 102 degrees. To show just how quckly the weather conditions changed as a result of the heat burst, the tabular data from the Atlantic AWOS is shown below.

Atlantic AWOS Data
Time (CDT) Temp (F)
Dew Point (F)
Wind

5:55pm 84 75 Calm
6:05pm 86 61 16 G 28 mph
6:15pm 93 54 21 G 41 mph
6:25pm 88 61 10 G 39 mph
6:35pm 86 59 12 mph
6:45pm 86 61 14 mph
6:55pm 88 64 16 G 26 mph
7:05pm 90 54 20 G 30 mph
7:15pm 99 18* 8 G 38 mph
7:25pm 102 7* 3 mph
7:35pm 91 52 Calm
7:45pm 88 64 10 G 18 mph
7:55pm 84 72 13 G 21 mph
8:05pm 84 75 8 mph

*AWOS sites typically have problems reporting dew points in low humidity environments, so these two dew point measurements are likely incorrect.

NASA Images: African Dust, Dismal Swamp fires

It's amazing how beautiful our planet is form space. Check out these NASA MODIS Terra images from NASA'a Earth Observatory this week.

Studies have show African dust from the Sahara desert can travel all the way across the Atlantic and end up in the soil in Florida. You can see how that can happen below.

The "Great Dismal Swamp" (sounds like a great vacation destination huh?) in Virginia is a strange place, and this year it's on fire. Check out the smoke plume form space.

Just a little reminder how very small we are in a really big world.

Enjoy our fine late August weather pattern, and open those windows for "good sleeping weather" the next few nights!

PH

Relief! Windy "fresh front" arrives; Irene: Threat to NYC & Bos?

Posted at 8:49 AM on August 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

How do you spell relief?

C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T!

The first of a series of Canadian cool fronts slipped through Minnesota overnight.

The front silently but dramatically dropped dew points. The dew point at MSP Airport plunged from a tropical 72 at 4am, to a comfy 59 by 7am...a 13 degree drop in just 3 hours!

Temperatures will still reach to 80s today behind the front in southern Minnesota, but it looks like we've seen our last sticky 70 degree dew point for about a week.

Winds whip up:

We're feeling the result of "atmospheric momentum" and "mix-down" today across Minnesota. These abstract weather concepts are producing the wind you feel on your face today.

A strong pressure gradient at between 5 and 10 thousand feet today will "mix-down" to the surface as the sun heats the lower atmosphere today. This "transfer of atmospheric momentum" will result in gusty NW winds between 15 and 30 mph at times.

Expect white caps on Minnesota lakes today. In fact, the strong persistent NW winds could produce some big waves on the larger lakes today. How about some 3-5 footers on the SE shore of Mille Lacs?

Wind and waves building on Mille Lacs already this morning.

Be careful on the bigger lakes today!

Category 3 Irene: A growing threat to NYC & Boston?

Speaking of wind, Irene has intensified as expected into a Category 3 hurricane.

Accuweather IR satellite image shows a clear "eye" in Irene Wednesday morning.

Here are the stats as of Wednesday morning as Irene lashes the Bahamas.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

Irene is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 125 mph in the next 48 hours.

The latest model tracks shift Irene to the east again, and indicate the most dangerous center and right side of the hurricane may pass just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks. Still I expect to see Jim Cantore getting sand blasted as the storm races by the Outer Banks Sunday.

The suite of models then takes a Category 1 Irene dangerously close to NYC, over the eastern tip of Long Island, and straight into the Boston metro and Cape Cod.

It's still too early to say what kind of damage could result in the major cities of the northeast, but Irene may yet deal a blow to a major metropolitan area.

Stay tuned!

PH

Irene track shifts east; MSP's warm summer numbers

Posted at 9:30 PM on August 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

A quick update on Hurricane Irene.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

As I said in my morning post, Irene is slated to intensify and become a major hurricane in the next 24 hours.

The one change worth noting is that Tuesday's forecast model trends are to push Irene further to the east. This may suggest that Irene will not produce a direct hit on the Carolina coast....it could be more of a glancing (but still substantial) blow on the Outer Banks.

Here are the latest spaghetti models.

This potentially good news for places like Myrtle Beach and Charleston may be bad news for News for Long Island and Cape Cod. Irene may spend more time over open ocean, and that could mean a potentially stronger hurricane if the tracks near New York City and Boston verify.

After Tuesday's rare earthquake on the East Coast, some areas may feel the forces of an earthquake and hurricane in the same week for the first time ever!

Stay tuned!

Warm summer, but no 90s so far in August?

Southern Minnesota flirted with 90 today, with plenty of humidity to boot. Believe it or not MSP and much of Minnesota has not recorded a 90 degree temperatures so far in August!

14 days at or above 90 at MSP Airport so far in 2011.

13 days on average at or above 90 each year at MSP.

25 days this summer with highs between 85 and 89 degrees at MSP this summer!

40 days at or above 85 degrees at MSP in 2011.

+1.1 degrees vs. average temps at MSP in June

+ 5.6 degrees vs. average in July

+2.2 degrees so far in August

+3 degrees vs. average at MSP sumemr of 2011!

It feels like it's been warm this summer, and the numbers support that.

With just one week left in "meteorological summer" we are running about 3 degrees warmer than average for the summer of 2011 in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.

There's been plenty of beach weather, and after a chilly start, lake water temperatures finally warmed up into the lower 80s by mid-July in the south and well into the 70s up north.

To me the most interesting stat is the number of 90 degree days this year.

MSP Airport has recorded 14 days of 90 degree pus heat. That's only one above the annual average of 13 days. But we've had 6 days with a high of 89 degrees, and 25 days with highs between 85 and 89 degrees!

Add up all the days above 85 degrees (very warm by any standards) and we've (enjoyed?) a full 40 days at or above 85 degrees this summer.

Not bad!

"Fresh Front" Ahead Wednesday:

After a fairly sweaty Tuesday PM & night, a cool front will sweep away the hot humid air mass which made a brief cameo in Minnesota.

Look for a fresh northwest breeze building Wednesday.

Fresh gusty northwest winds Wednesday afternoon!

It will still be warm and feel like summer with highs in the 80s, but dew points will plunge into the 50s Wednesday afternoon and evening! It will fell downright comfy by sunset Wednesday night.

That sunset is now at 8:04pm, which is a full hour earlier (gulp) than in late June! You can see the boats on area lakes heading for shore about 90 minutes earlier than two months ago.

"Fair" Forecast: Good to great

Thursday's weather may be just "perfect" for the opening of the Minnesota State Fair. A weak bubble of high pressure overhead will bring all day sunshine, highs in the low 80s and comfy humidity with dew points in the upper 50s.

Does it get any better?

In fact the first few days of the fair may be ideal. It looks like the best shot of a thundery rainy day will come Sunday.

Here's the NWS version of the forecast.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Northwest wind at 7 mph becoming southwest.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. (Note: I would put the rain chances higher for Sunday...more like 50-60%)

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

It's always hard to believe State Fair time is here this week. It seems to come up fast every year, but also just at the point where maybe...just maybe, you think we've had a long enough summer that we can lazily drift into fall next month,

I'm convinced the Minnesota State Fair is the perfect "psychological tonic" for Minnesotans to begin the slow transition into school and the fall season.

We stroll lazily around the Fair, soak up the last real doses of summer, enjoy the foods, sights, smells and sounds. We savor the summer that was, while we convince ourselves "it's been a great summer" and we tell ourselves we are realy looking forward to fall.

By the way, if you enjoy the wistful and nostalgic feelings some seem to get this time of year I highly recommend watching an old Twilight Zone episode "Walking Distance."

It's a great study on how we all would like to go back to the summers of our youth at some point. It is widely considered to be one of the best Twilight Zone episodes ever produced.

Another feeling I get this time of year a powerful sense of transition. I also recommend watching American Graffiti sometime in the next two weeks. The Lucas classic perfectly captures the seasonal and life transitions that seem to occur as summer eases into September.

But I digress.

PH

"Major" Hurricane Irene to 135 mph? MN: Heat builds today

Posted at 8:59 AM on August 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

It looks like Hurricane Irene is ready to go into "beast mode"

All indications point ot rapid intensification of Irene over the next 24 to 48 hours. Irene will likely become an even more powerful Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds within 24 hours.

WSI loop of Irene Tuesday.

Here are the stats on Irene as of Tuesday morning:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Irene builds near Grand Turk Island Tuesday. (Image courtesy Accuweather)

Next 24 to 48 hours:

Irene is expected be in a favorable environment for rapid intensification over the next 2 days.

1) Irene is headed over mostly open water.

2) Surface waters are very warm (85 degrees+) along Irene's projected path.

3) Irene is expected to encounter very little or no wind shear in the next 48 hours.

All of these factors will allow Irene to strengthen rapidly. Satellite images show Irene is currently compact and concentric, and is likely to grow into a larger than average hurricane according to NHC.

"HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE
CLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.3N 70.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.9N 71.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.9N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 24.3N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND"

Track Forecast:

The most probable landfall scenario (and the official NHC track) crashes a powerful 120 mph Category 3 hurricane into the North Carolina coast near Wilmington and Cape Fear late Saturday or Sunday.

Official NHC track forecast.

Overall the suite of computer forecast models are in much tighter agreement today.

There is still some divergence as we head to the weekend. A few of the models suggest a track that could shift Irene to pass east of the Outer Banks.

Orcasystems track & intensity graphics

USA Impacts:

The sheer size of Irene may mean that Florida's east coast still gets brushed with strong tropical force or even hurricane force gusts, heavy surf and dangerous rip tides.

After the potential devastating landfall in the Carolinas, the northeast will have to be on alert for Irene.

Bottom Line: Irene is about to become a major and extremely dangerous hurricane.

Stay tuned for updates on track & intensity.

Minnesota: Stormy, hot Tuesday, Fresh front Wednesday

It was a mostly sleepless night at the weather lab and for many Minnesotans. When you're a weather guy, it's hard to sleep through thunder & lightning. Yes, I find myself glued to the radar screen at 3am sometimes. Today was one of those mornings.

A strong MCS raced southeast along I-94 from North Dakota overnight. The complex was in decay mode by the time it hit the metro around 5am.

The overnight storms were well forecast, and did leave a few severe weather reports in their wake.

MPX: 5 S Monticello [Wright Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:15 AM CDT -- trees down on power lines.power out.

MPX: Buffalo [Wright Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M63 MPH at 04:59 AM CDT -- buffalo airport awos 0959z.

The sun is peeking out at the weather lab this morning, and PM sun should help boost temps to near 90 in much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

The heat won't last this time, a fresh cool front will spill drier Canadian air south Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday's Fair opener still looks grand. Look for plenty of sun and a high in the low 80s.

Does it get any better for corn dogs & root beer?

PH

Forecast: "Major" Hurricane Irene; MN: Overnight Thunder?

Posted at 5:29 PM on August 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Hurricane Irene is gathering steam and ready to roll.

All systems appear to be "go" for Irene, the Atlantic season's first hurricane, to morph & mutate into the first major hurricane of 2011.

Current Conditions:

Irene beat up on Puerto Rico Sunday & early Monday. By late Monday Hurricane Irene is a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale with 80 mph winds.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Visible satellite image shows Irene growing north of Hispaniola.
(Click to enalrge for easily readable images)

Track Forecast:

All the various computer model tracks agree on two things during the next 48 hours.

1) Irene is headed for the Bahamas.

2) Irene is going track over mostly warm, open waters and grow stronger.

The "official" NHC track takes Irene toward the South Carolina coast Saturday as a major hurricane.

After 48 hours larger differences in tracks emerge, but the consensus is that Irene will recurve northward and may either make landfall in the USA or parallel the coast for a while.

Keep in mind that the 5 year average error for hurricane track forecasts is about 200 miles 4 days out.

The latest model packages have shown a general trend to shift the track slightly east.

This may be good news for south Florida, if Irene is able to track further offshore.

This may also increase the chances of a direct hit on the Carolinas, and more time over open ocean and a warm Gulf Stream may cause Irene to intensify and explode into a major hurricane.

Intensity Forecast:

Irene's probable track over warm open waters and the super warm Gulf Stream current look favorable for turning Irene into a large, well organized major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane in the next 72 hours.

From the NHC discussion....

"ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY."

Official NHC intensity forecast surges Irene to 115 mph by Thursday, a major Category 3 storm. The GFS model, (which appears to have successfully predicted the notion of development and approximate location of Irene somewhere off the Florida coast 10 days in advance!) drops Irene's central pressure to 945 millibars, which would make Irene a borderline Category 4 Hurricane!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

Either way, all indications are that Irene is going to be a nasty major hurricane by Thursday. Irene could reach Category 3, or possible Category 4 intensity by then.

Keep in mind that hurricane track forecasts are generally more accurate and reliable than hurricane intensity forecasts. If Irene encounters favorable (low) wind shear over the super warm Gulf Stream current off the Florida Coast, she may get a "super charged" shot of energy and undergo rapid intensification Thursday.

USA Threats?

South Florida may be breathing slightly easier today with the eastward shift of the model consensus, but Florida is not out of the woods yet for several reasons.

-The NAM model still predicts a direct hit near Miami late Thursday night or Friday morning.

-Irene will grow in size and intensity, and even if the center tracks 100+ miles offshore, the storm may be large enough and powerful enough to do damage on Florida's east coast, especially in northern Florida near Jacksonville.

The official NHC track, and the model consensus puts the Carolinas most at risk for a direct strike from a major Category 3 hurricane Saturday.

After that there are also scary scenarios for Washington D.C., New York City and Long Island, and even Boston and Cape Cod.

Stay tuned for the latest track and intensity shifts. The next 48 hours will be critical in telling just how strong Irene will get, and where she may strike!

Minnesota Forecast: Possible MCS overnight & early Tuesday?

It could get loud & wet in parts of Minnesota overnight & early Tuesday.

A hot, sticky tropical air mass may greet Minnesotans with some heavy thunderstorms and a possible MCS overnight into Tuesday morning. Call it a "sunrise surprise" in some areas, but be ready for some potentially big storms to fire in the overnight hours and rumble through early Tuesday morning.

The storms have the potential to pack high winds, hail and heavy rainfall.

NAM model paints some .50" to 1"+ rainfall totals near the metro Tuesday morning.

SPC has placed much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather.

Don't be "sunrise surprised" if you get shook out of bed by a loud crack of thunder early Tuesday morning!

PH

Dangerous Irene to slam SE USA? MN: Heat, rain & "Fair" weather week

Posted at 8:55 AM on August 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Get ready for non-stop news coverage of what could be the first hurricane to strike the USA in nearly 3 years. It's been 1073 days since Hurricane Ike slammed into Texas.

They'll be battening down the hatches from Florida to the Carolina's this week as what could become "major" Hurricane Irene moves toward the U.S. coast.

Irene lashed Puerto Rico as a tropical storm Sunday.

Radar loop shows swirling center as Irene lashes Puerto Rico Sunday.

Irene is now Hurricane Irene as the system moves over open water north of Hispaniola. (Click on images to enlarge)

WSI IR satellite loop shows Irene organizing over open water.

So where is Irene headed?

Let's start today with the "official" NHC track. NHC forecasts Hurricane Irene to graze the east side of Florida Friday, with a potential landfall near the Florida-Georgia border Saturday. Keep in mind that the 5 year average track error for hurricanes is 200-250 miles 4-5 days out.

Many models indicate the track may be shifted further east. The suite of hurricane "spaghetti models" clusters Irene's track east of Florida with landfall somewhere in the Carolinas this weekend.

If that track verifies, what could be good news for Florida may be very bad news for the Carolinas and the east coast of the USA. More time over the open, warm waters of the Gulf Stream may "flare" Irene into a monster. Rapid intensification is possible over the super charged Gulf Stream, and a Category 3 hurricane with winds over 115mph is possible as it approaches land.

Check out the intensity forecasts for Irene. A few of the models intensify Irene to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 111 mph+!

As you can see there is still great variabiliy in track and intensity forecasts for Irene. It is still way to early to be married to any one track scenario. People from Florida to the Carolinas (and beyond) should be making hurricane preparations today and tomorrow.

East Coast Hurricane nightmare track?

Many of the models are suggesting a track for Irene that could bring the storm right along the East Coast of the USA. This could leave the eastern side of the storm out over open water, as the storm rakes the east coast from Washington, D.C. through New York & Long Island all the way to Boston.

If that happens, even a Category 1 Irene may become a devastating storm affecting millions. Damage from Irene could rise into the billions.

All of this of course depends on the exact track of Irene. There could be a merciful shift east that would keep the most destructive part of the hurricane out over open water, but at this point that does not look like the most likely solution.

Stay tuned as we track Irene this week. This has the potential to be a major weather disaster for the eastern USA.

Minnesota: Amazon Jungle heat, thunder & a perfect start to the Fair this week?

If you like variety, you may enjoy our forecast. It looks like we may see a little bit of everything this week in Minnesota.
\
Monday: Can you dream up a more perfect summer day?

Plenty of sun today. Highs in the lower 80s. More humid by late afternoon. Wind SSW increasing to 10-20 mph late.

Overnght & early Tuesday: a 40% chance of thunderstorms after midnight into Tuesday AM. Some could be heavy.

Tuesday Afternoon: Barbaric heat & humidity. Hazy sun, intensely hot & humid. High near 92-95 in the south. Dew points 75+. Heat index could reach 103 in some areas by late Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: Relief! Cool front brings fresh NW breezes at 10-20 mph. High near 85, but much less humid with dew points falling into the upper 50s late.

Thursday: State Fair Opening Day! Weather perfection? Sunny with comfortable humidity and a high near 83. Light west winds. Wow!

Friday: Mixed sun & clouds. Warm & more humid. Thunder threat? High 85.

Stay tuned as we track the two major weather stories this week...Hurricane Irene and State Fair weather!

PH

Pop up T-Showers; Florida Hurricane threat; Double-Dip La Nina?

Posted at 8:47 AM on August 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, La Nina

Fickle Thursday:

Look for a few isolated "pop-up" showers & T-showers today around Minnesota & the Upper Midwest.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

What meteorologists refer to as a "weak synoptic pattern" is providing enough instability to generate the isolated T-Showers. Weak synoptic patterns are defined by the lack of a major focal point to generate storms...like a strong cold front or big low pressure system does.

The result is a higher degree of difficulty forecasting exact timing and location of storms.

There's just enough instability today that SPC has much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather.

I don't expect a big widespread severe weather outbreak today, but one or two storms could approach severe limits.

Florida: Keeping a wary eye on the tropical Atlantic

Again, it's too early to issue any reliable hurricane forecasts a week in advance. But it's not too early to start paying attention when the same model insists on placing a (potentially strong?) hurricane somewhere near Florida late next week.

For the 3rd day in a row, the NCEP GFS model is developing a hurricane and tracking it westward to a position near south Florida sometime late next week.

There's a lot of open water and atmosphere between the tropical wave, which is still in the eastern Atlantic... and Florida.

Here's the latest from NHC.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Anything could happen in the next week, but if I lived in Florida I would have my "pre hurricane" action plan in full gear and be readying thing just in case this pans out next week. That's a good idea anyway during late August in the southeast USA.

Stay tuned.

"Double-Dip" La Nina?

It doesn't happen often, but there are signs that we may see a rare "double-dip" La Nina again next winter.

La Nina years (cold water in tropical Pacific) are usually separated by an El Nino episode (warm water) in between.

But every so often (2008-2009 & the mid 1970s) a La Nina will fade to neutral, only to regenerate again the next year.

Historical El Nino Southern Oscillation. La Nina episodes in blue, El Nino in red.

There are signs La Nina could regenerate next winter, and CPC has issued another "La Nina Watch."

The various climate models are split on what will happen next winter. Some say a weak El Nino, some are "ENSO neutral" and some say La Nina will return.

At this point I'd say it's a coin flip, but we may know more when the next ENSO advisories are issued in September and October.

Last winter's relatively strong La Nina may be the reason we saw heavy to record snowfall, and a cold spring. But all La Nina episodes are not equal in terms of the weather patterns they produce. I'd say it's unlikely we'll see another 86" of snowfall next winter in the metro, but I suppose anything is possible.

Again...stay tuned!

PH

Tropical trouble? Seattle public radio meteorologist finds new home

Posted at 5:18 PM on August 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

It's the time of year when forecasters at NHC watch every little tropical wave in the Atlantic with a wary eye.

Today, there are two main areas of interest in the Atlantic. One may threaten Central America. The other could be a threat to the southeast USA late next week.

93L

So called low pressure system 93L is churning in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola. The system is showing some signs of circulation, and hurricane hunter aircraft have been dispatched to investigate the potential for low level organization.

Weather Underground hurricane guru Jeff Masters has the write up. "Caribbean disturbance 93L, A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images."

Hurricane modles are tracking the system west into Central America or southern Mexico.

Florida threat next week?

The second tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to be an eventual threat to the southeast USA late next week.

As I wrote Wednesday morning, the GFS insists on bringing a hurricane to somewhere near the southeast USA by next Thursday or Friday. Various runs of the GFS have placed the system near Florida, then into the Gulf or curving north into Georgia.

Again, Jeff Masters has the write up. "A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models."

If you read between the lines and follow that track, you can see the logical extension (and GFS solution) is that a hurricane may approach the southeast USA late next week.

Stay tuned.

Seattle Public Radio meteorologist booted from one station, finds a new home.

I've never met Cliff Mass, but I've read some of his excellent work and he's well respected in the Pacific Northwest and nationally as a researcher. The UW Professor has had a weekly radio gig on public radio in Seattle of many years. Think Mark Seeley in Seattle.

It appears that Dr. Mass has recently strayed from talking about weather and climate issues into expounding on other topics of interest for him.

I don't have a whole lot of comment here except to say that if I decided to take on other topics outside of weather or climate during my MPR weather chats, I'm pretty sure I'd be invited to pay a visit to my managers office in a hurry. My role here is to talk about weather and climate, and any related topics that may be of interest to MPR listeners. It's just how the biz works...you fill your slot and that's that. If they want somebody to talk about politics or some other topic, there are plenty more capable and experienced than me ready to do that.

Here are some details on the Cliff Mass dust up in Seattle.

Outlook now sunny for outspoken pubradio weatherman in Puget Sound

"Cliff Mass, the colorful local weather guy whose non-weather opinions got him booted off Seattle's news channel KUOW in May, soon will have a regular spot on jazz station KPLU in Tacoma, according to the Seattle Times. Mass, a University of Washington professor of atmospheric sciences, was featured weekly on KUOW's morning show, Weekday, to discuss weather. But sometimes he would veer off onto other subjects, including a controversy over which textbooks to use in local schools. Station management asked him to stop; he refused. And so Steve Scher, host and executive producer of Weekday, removed Mass from the unpaid spot. In a letter posted for listeners, Scher wrote, "I do not want the weather segment to become an opinion and views segment."

"It'll be strictly weather," Mass says."

The perspective from KUOW here.

"When Cliff Mass signed on 15 years ago to be a regular Friday guest on the show Weekday, he told the producers he wanted to do more than just give the weekend forecast. He wanted to talk about science as well.

I'm Deborah Wang, KUOW News."

PH

MN: Taste of fall ahead? GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

Posted at 8:41 AM on August 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Flooding, Hurricanes

The weather maps are looking a little scary in the weather lab this morning.

Last night's north metro flash flood dumped 2" to 3"+ rain totals in the north metro. Some rainfall reports below, including nearly a month's worth of rain in Roseville!

MPX: 5 Nw Roseville [Anoka Co, MN] nws employee reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.21 INCH at 11:00 PM CDT -- heavy rain fell during the evening on tuesday...august 16.

MPX: Wsw Waverly [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.10 INCH at 06:43 PM CDT --

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 83 / 65 / 0.85
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 84 / 62 / 1.42
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 80 / 54 / 1.66
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 77 / 56 / 0.72
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 84 / 59 / 2.07
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 83 / 62 / 0.14
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 79 / 55 / T
STP : ST PAUL MN : 84 / 62 / 1.01

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints heavy 2" to 3" rainfall totals from Tuesday night in the north Metro.

The deluge put the Twin Cities into the plus category for rainfall in August. MSP Airport has picked up 2.87" this month, and that's .52" above average for the month to date.

Signs of fall ahead?

I know...don't shoot me I'm just the messenger!

We really shouldn't be surprised to see some "blue lines" on the weather map in late August. We're not talking about a headlong launch into fall like weather just yet...but the GFS is showing signs of cooler air pooling up in Canada in the next 7-14 days.

There's still plenty of warm summer like weather ahead as we move into State Fair time next week. But there are indications that before Labor Day, we could see some brief "incursions" of cooler air push south into Minnesota.

Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s in late August???

It's too early to write off summer yet, but it is that time of the year when we turn one eye to Canada to see what's coming.

GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

This one falls under the weather category of "too early to be reliable, but not to pay attention to."

For the past 2 days now the GFS model has been insistent in bringing a hurricane to somewhere near south Florida by late next week. The models have varied in exact location from run to run, but have been consistent in the notion of a (potentially major?) hurricane approaching Florida next Thursday or Friday.

There is a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic that bears watching, and the GFS is likely picking up on this and steering it westward next week.

This may be on NHC's radar behind the scenes, but it's just too far in advance to post anything on the potential...at least not yet.

Is this GFS "model fantasy" or a weather fact that we may have to pay attention to in the next week? Don't bet the farm on this one....but keep an eye out for possible headlines concerning the potential for a Florida hurricane in the next week.

PH

Taste of back-to-school weather

Posted at 6:47 AM on August 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Forecast models, Hurricanes, Rainfall

A cool front will sweep through the upper Midwest today and tonight bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front passes temperatures will fall to readings more typical of late August. Expect brisk northwest winds as well on Tuesday.

Here's the short term RUC model of surface temperatures, pressure pattern and winds for late afternoon. Note the region of sizzling hot temperatures in Kansas andOklahoma, extending into Texas.

Rainfall with this passing cool front will not be overly generous. NOAA's Envirnomental Predication Center paints this graphic of rainfall potential for the next twenty-four hours.

Texas continues to remain in severe drought. Some large areas of the Lone Star State are in exceptional drought.

With regard to tropical storm activity things are quiet for the moment. The peak of the hurricane season is approaching.

Historical record of seasonal tropical storms in the Atlantic from the Hurricane Center.

Early morning temperatures on Wednesday may be the coolest since the Twin Cities dipped below 60 degrees and recorded a low of 58 on June 28th. Check out this forecast for temperatures on Wednesday morning from the WRF model.

On this date in 2010 the Twin Cities Internationl Airport reached 96 degrees to tie the record high for August 8th set in 1894, repeated in 1914. The normal max/min for August 8th in the Twin Cities 82/63.

In case you missed it, Roseau experienced temperatures in the middle 60s for much of Saturday, with early Sunday morning temperatures in the upper 40s.

A rather isolated strong thunderstorm produced golf ball sized hail near Young America in Carver County on Saturday evening.
CE

Humidity builds; Saturday thunder? Emily takes a nosedive

Posted at 5:00 PM on August 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

75 degree dew point at 6am Tuesday at MSP Airport

53 degree dew point at 1pm Wednesday

63 degree dew point at 10 am Thursday

After a 22 degree drop in dew point at MSP Airport in 30 hours, you can feel the humidity creeping back up again in Minnesota. Dew points are on the rise through the sticky 60s again, and may reach the tropical 70 degree point by Saturday.

Dew points in the upper 60s & 70s in Iowa are moving back north into Minnesota.

After record humidity this summer you have to wonder if moss is going to start growing on the trees. Is this the Twin Cities or Savannah?

Saturday storm chances:

As moisture increases Friday, a wave of low pressure will skirt the Minnesota-Canadian border Saturday. The system should spawn a few scattered T-Storms as it moves through the Dakotas Friday & Minnesota Saturday.

SPC paints slight risk for severe storms (in yellow) to the west Friday.

Emily fades over Hispaniola:

Once Tropical Storm Emily did a dissapearing act over Hispainola Thursday. The storm's circualtion was never very strong, and it became even more disorganized as it interacted with the highly mountainous island.

Anatomy of a dying Tropical Storm:

Before: Emily looked somewhat better organized on Wednesday.

After: Emily's interaction with mountainous terrain on Hispaniola tears the storm apart.

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY.

SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Models track Emily's remains near (over) Florida. The question is will she regenerate?

It remains to be seen if Emily's remains will reorganize as it moves into the Bahamas. For now, the NHC has dropped the advisories for Emily. Emily has already thrown a few curve balls; let's see if she has any more surprises up her sleeve in the coming days.

PH

Minnesota perfect? Will Emily end USA "Hurricane Drought?"

Posted at 8:48 AM on August 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

That old beer commercial might be right on the mark today. "It doesn't get any better than this?"

Talking to literally thousands of Minnesotans (And Arizonans, and Illinoisans) over the past 20 years of doing weather there are a few constant themes that emerge.

1) Everybody likes different weather. There is not one "perfect weather" ideal fro all.

2) Different weather scenarios benefit people and businesses in different ways.

-Your snowplow guy loves many 3" snows in a season if he chagres by the plow...etc.

-Your electric utility might like a hot spell if they know about it in advance, and don't have to buy expensive extra power on the spot market.

-And farmers like rain on days when car wash owners might not!

There's an old saying..."There is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather."

That said, I can tell you that if I took a poll of all Minnesotans I think that we might get the vast majority to say that today's weather is pretty close to perfect.

Still I know there will be those who will complain about today's weather. It always amazed me in Arizona how people would complain about the slightest variations from "perfect." It would be sunny, 75 degrees in December and some people complain that "It's a little too windy today" with a 13 mph wind. Human nature I guess?

I hope you can enjoy plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the 80s, and dew points in the lower 60s, with relatively light winds today in Minnesota.

What is your idea of "perfect weather?" Or do you like (or curse the fact) that we have so much variability in our weather in Minnesota?

Hurricane Drought: Will Emily end the string?

Now this is the kind of drought I think we all could get used to!

It's been 3 years since a hurricane has hit the USA. Nasty Hurricane Ike was the last to strike the U.S. back in September 2008...nearly 3 years ago. That makes 1055 days since the last land falling U.S. hurricane.

If no hurricanes hit the United States this year, it would be the longest lull between U.S. hurricane landfalls in recorded history, according to NOAA.

Erratic Emily is keeping forecasters at NHC guessing:

"THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY."

The models continue to be split on Emily's eventual path and intensity.

The "official" NHC track seems to favor the eastern solution and creates a close shave for Florida's east coast.

Here's another interesting way to look at Emily. The loop below shows a 72 hour animation of "precipitable water" over the Atlantic. You can see the red areas swirling through the Caribbean as Emily churns westward.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

La Nina: not dead yet?

The latest ENSO advisory from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center may send a bit of a chill through winter weary Minnesotans. CPC is highlighting the chance that La Nina may hang on this upcoming winter. Too early to bet the farm, and not all La Nina winters are equal in Minnesota.

A safe outlook for winter in Minnesota? Cold with occasional snow.

Enjoying today's weather a little more?

PH

PH

Warmth of August sun, minus the humidity

Posted at 4:30 PM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Hurricanes, dew point

I spent a couple hours outdoors this morning and it sure felt warm in the August sunshine. With only a slight cooling breeze it was a blessing to have dew points some twenty degrees lower than Tuesday. The dew point at the Twin Cities International Airport was 74 degrees yesterday and a more comfortable 55 degrees this afternoon.

While the mercury has climbed to ninety degrees or better at MSP this summer season on fourteen days, we are looking at a period out a couple weeks were it may be more to our delight with regard to heat. The average temperature for July in St. Cloud was about 4.5 degrees warmer than normal. The Twin Cities average temp was 5.6 degrees above normal for July 2011.

We have turned the corner for "normal" maximum temperatures in the heart of summer and are slowly creeping down into the lower 80s. By the time we reach August 13th the average high in the Twin Cities is down from 84 to 81 degrees. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center depicts odds favoring at or somewhat below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest.

Check out the July climate reports for St. Cloud, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Eau Claire and Chanhassen here.

In case you think we had it bad here, and we did with the high dew points, the average maximum temperature for July in Dallas, TX was over 101 degrees. More than 70 percent of Texas is in an exceptional drought. They could use a decaying tropical storm to move inland and dump generous rainfall. That doesn't appear likely soon.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily and the computer generated track is the challenge for hurricane forecasters in NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Center.

Here's the link to follow the tropical storm's the reminder of the season. NOAA's Hurricane Center website.

The latest update on the storm named Emily predicts a path that takes it over Haiti with winds of 50 mph and rainfall of over five inches. From the Hurricane Center's most recent statement this afternoon....Tropical Storm EMILY Public Advisory:
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Track projection as of early this afternoon for Emily.

Always subject to change, but the forecast strength remains below hurricane force of 75 mph winds until early next week.

Enjoy the seasonal temperatures the next couple of days. Overnight temperatures may allow you to shut down the A/C and bring in some outside air.

CE

Late summer arrives; Is "Emily" a threat to Florida?

Posted at 8:25 AM on August 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Welcome to "late" summer.

By one definition, when August arrived this week we stepped into the last third of meteorological summer. The warmest 3 months of the year in Minnesota (meteorological summer) are June, July & August. As much as I hate to say it, we've made the turn and we're just entering the last (hopefully long) lap of summer.

Sunday August 7th is a "cross quarter day," astronomically speaking. This marks the halfway point on the calendar between the summer solstice and the (northern hemisphere) fall equinox. Don't read this if you're faint hearted, but we're actually losing about 18 minutes of daylight a week now! (Gulp)

Want good news?

By most measures, the best 3 months of weather are ahead in Minnesota. It's pretty hard to beat August, September & October in the Upper Midwest...most years anyway.

Free AC: "Fresh front" arrives on schedule

As if on cue, a cool front sailed through Minnesota Tuesday. You can feel it in the air this morning...the big change in air masses. Dew points plunged a full 20 degrees in many areas in 24 hours. That's roughly a 50% drop in atmospheric water vapor, and the reason you feel comfortable and can literally breathe easier today!

Atmospherically speaking we "moved" from the Amazon Jungle to San Diego in 24 hours...not a bad change of atmosphere.

With drier high pressure overhead we may actually string 3 dry days in a row together. That hasn't happened often this summer, and the last time we had 4 dry days in a row in much of Minnesota was the first week of June!

Our next real rain threat moves in Saturday with a shot of scattered T-Storms. Right now Sunday looks gorgeous, with bright sun, temps in the 80s and comfy humidity levels.

Tropical Trouble: Emily gets stronger:

Tropical Storm Emily is making a move toward Hispaniola today.

NOAA satellite IR loop courtesy WSI.

Emily has grown and become better organized in the past 24 hours. The storm is forecast to batter Hispaniola with wind, torrential rains and possible life threatening mudslides.

The interaction with higher terrain on Hispaniola may disrupt Emily, but she is forecast to regain strength over open water after that.

The "consensus" and official NHC track bring then Hurricane Emily to a track east of Florida then recurve her out into the open Atlantic.

There has been some westward shift in some of the hurricane model tracks over the past 24 hours.

Several of the models (about 5 of 15) steer Emily further west, and take the storm on a more westward course that could threaten Florida by this weekend.

About one-third of hurricane forecast models suggest Emily could threaten Florida.

Stay tuned to the progress of Emily. This could be a close call for Florida and the southeast USA.

PH

Erratic Tropical Storm Don; Deadly USA heat wave persists

Posted at 8:41 AM on July 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

So you wanna be a weather forecaster? Even better, a hurricane forecaster?

Tropical storm Don is confounding forecasters at the National Hurricane Center a bit today.

"Don" flares in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning.

The storm has been erratic in developing, and Don's future intensity and impacts seem far from certain today. Check out some of the language from the NHC's technical forecast discussion on Don.

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE
REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM
VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
SLOW DECLINE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON
MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND
DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. GIVEN THE REDUCED
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9... WITH OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTING THE SMALL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY."

Hurricane forecasting is a tough business, and one of the more difficult specialized areas of meteorology. Weak tropical steering currents, changing ocean temperatures and slight variations in wind shear can mean rapidly fluctuating hurricane intensity.

Hurricane "spaghetti chart" show most models tracking Don toward south Texas.

The models do fairly well with tropical cyclone tracks, but intensity forecasts are much tougher, and less reliable. Let's see what Don has in store in the next 24 hours as it approaches the Texas coast.

Heat Wave 2011: Deadly and persistent

Minnesota has been on the northern edge of the massive heat wave of 2011. We've had our share of hot weather, but nothing compared to places like Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas.

12 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro in 2011

17 days at or above 100 degrees in Topeka, Kansas in 2011!

-The 10 consecutive days of temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees in Topeka this year is tied for Topeka's 7th longest streak of 100 degree temperatures.

Even though we're running a full +5.4 degrees warmer than average in July in the metro, you can see our July heat is almost bearable when compared with the Kansas (and USA) heat wave of 2011.

PH

Excessive Heat Watch; 100 in metro Thursday?

Posted at 9:05 AM on June 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

I hope the A/C is tuned up and ready to go!

Some headlines for the blog today:

-Excessive Heat Watch issued for metro Thursday:

Heat indices over 100 likely...

-Temperature Forecast Techniques:

Just how do meteorologists come up with a "number?"

-Isolated Overnight T-Storm?

Warm front may spark a rumbler overnight.

-1st named storm in Atlantic Hurricane Season:

Tropical Storm Arlene gears up off Mexican Coast.

The heat is on for Thursday:

Get ready for another heat blast.

A strong ridge of high pressure is building overhead Thursday. You'll start to feel the dew point creeping up today, and by Thursday, a full blown "hot front" will push temps to near 100 degrees.

An Excessive Heat Watch is posted by Twin Cities NWS. It will likely be upgraded to a warning Thursday.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.A HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH SURGING DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE INNER DOWNTOWN AREAS OF THE METRO WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

MNZ060-062-291715-
/O.NEW.KMPX.EH.A.0001.110630T1700Z-110701T1200Z/
HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL
414 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS IN THE 90S THURSDAY WITH A HEAT INDEX FROM
100 TO 106.

* IMPACTS...THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE CENTRAL URBANIZED AREAS OF THE TWIN
CITIES METRO.

How high will it go?

Depending on what you look at, you can get a temperature in the 95 to 100 degree range in most of southern Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. Combine a dew point in the mid 70s, and heat index could reach 100 to 106 degrees!

Temperature forecast techniques:

Just how do meteorologists come up with tomorrow's high temp? Where does that "number" come from anyway??

There are various forecast techniques used to calculate and predict temperatures.

One old tried and true method is "temperature computation." This is basically what forecast models do these days, but we used to do it by hand back in the "old school" days.

You start with the latest actual temperature...let's say the overnight low was 62 degrees

From 62 degrees, you add the average "diurnal variation" (difference between the average high & low temp on a given day) for the day. This time of year that's 21 degrees for the metro.

So 62 + 21 = 83 degrees if everything is "average."

Now you apply various correction factors. These may include

-Warm or cold advection (warmer or colder air moving in)
-Sun/clouds & sun angle
-Wind
-Precipitation
-Snow cover
-Soil moisture
-Residual heat/cold
-Miscellaneous factors such as smoke, haze etc.
-Lake effect in Great Lakes

After you apply the correction factors (specifics stored deep in the Weather Lab vault) you come up with a number. If you did it right, you should be pretty close to the forecast high or low temp.

850 millibar "mix down" technique:

Another way to shortcut a forecast high temperature is what's called the 850 millibar mix down technique. Basically you use the air temp at 850 millibars (around 5,000 feet above ground level) and "mix it down" to the surface. As the air descends it warms adiabatically. The temperature at 850 mb can be a great indicator of the potential surface temp on a given day.

This technique can work very well on windy sunny days in spring and summer.

Thursday's forecast 850 millibar temps of around 29 degrees Celsius would yield a surface temp of 100 to 105 degrees if everything worked out just right! Relatively high dew points may slow the heat burst, because it takes more energy to heat moist air.

Either way it's going to feel oppressively ht Thursday.

This is Amazon Jungle heat folks.

Rumbler ovenight?

As the heat gurgles north tonight, there is a chance that isolated T-Storms could develop in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Don't be shocked if you hear thunder and rain in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Arlene kicks off Atlantic Season:

Tropical Strom Arlene is the 1st named storm of the Atlantic Season.

Arlene is forecast to track westward into Mexico Thursday. The primary threat is heavy rainfall.

The details from NHC:

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN

PH

Showers increase; Hurricane season sends Florida message

Posted at 5:54 PM on June 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Radars will glow with scattered showers and a few T-Storms in southern Minnesota tonight.

Twin Cities radar loop already lighting up with showers early Wednesday evening.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

A developing warm front is pushing north from Iowa, and scattered rain & thunder will accompany the front tonight and early Thursday. It appears (according to SPC convective outlooks) the fast moving showers & T-Storms will remain below severe limits overnight.

A slight risk for severe storms favors northern Minnesota and the Dakotas Minnesota Thursday.

Heat and humidity will increase behind the front late Thursday & Friday.

Hurricane season arrives with a message for Florida:

Floridians may have received an early hurricane message today.

Batten down the hatches for Hurricane Season 2011.

The first tropical disturbance of the 2011 season (93L) sailed right over northern Florida Wednesday on the first "official" day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

GOES 1km visible image shows tropical wave as it intensifies over Florida Wednesday.

NHC gives the system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters at Weather Underground has a great summary of this season's hurricane outlooks and today's systems.

"A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage."

Jeff say 93L is still worth watching as it races into the Gulf.

"Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico

Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary."

It's not scientific, but after two consecutive years with no hurricane landfalls in the USA my weather "spidey senses" tell me this is going to be a bad year for hurricane damage in the USA.

Let's hope I'm wrong about that one.

PH

Nicer today; Storm tonight? Heat builds Thursday & Friday

Posted at 7:28 AM on June 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes, Mosquitoes

Weather headlines for June 1st:

-Wednesday weather improves. More sun, less wind. (but still breezy) High 78. Wind W 10-20 mph eases PM.

-Warm front pushes north tonight. Scattered showers & T-Storms overnight.

-Heat surges north Thursday & Friday. First 90s possible! Muggy dew points near 70?

-Cool front Saturday. Nice weekend with highs near 80 and an isolated T-Storm threat Sunday?

-Meteorological summer begins today! (June 1 - Aug 31)

-Hurricane season begins today. Hurricane outlooks of little value?

-Mosquito Tracker: Find out what's been treated in your neighborhood.

Changeable Forecast:

On a scale of 1 to 10 today might be a 9 in the context of this spring. Look for mainly sunny skies and temps in the mid to upper 70s in southern Minnesota this afternoon.

NWS weather story. (Click all images to enlarge)

Weather station plots over GOES 1km visible satellite image show a west wind again Wednesday morning.

Clouds (and a few showers) may linger in the north with cooler temps in the 60s.

Winds will still blow, but not nearly as strong as the storm force winds of Tuesday. Check out some of Tuesday's observed gusts below. A more complete list from Twin Cities NWS here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST...

...MINNESOTA...

...ANOKA COUNTY...

1 SW BLAINE (912 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 445 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
2 NW ANOKA (872 FT)(APRSWXNET) 333 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
6 WNW FOREST LAKE (899 FT)(RAWS) 806 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

...CARVER COUNTY...

3 S CARVER (845 FT)(RAWS) 649 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WSW WACONIA (1012 FT)(AWS) 459 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 NE LESTER PRAIRIE (938 FT)(MNDOT) 308 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...CHISAGO COUNTY...

1 NE RUSH CITY (921 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1034 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...DAKOTA COUNTY...

2 NE LAKEVILLE (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 633 PM MAY 31 31 MPH
3 WSW FARMINGTON (958 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 652 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 SSW FARMINGTON (944 FT)(APRSWXNET) 712 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
2 NNE EAGAN (820 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 454 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
2 NNW BURNSVILLE (792 FT)(MNDOT) 657 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...DOUGLAS COUNTY...

4 NNW ALEXANDRIA (1381 FT)(AWS) 604 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
3 SSE ALEXANDRIA (1440 FT)(MNDOT) 757 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
ALEXANDRIA ASOS (1423 FT)(ASOS) 725 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

1 W BROOKLYN PARK (853 FT)(APRSWXNET) 604 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 SE MAPLE GROVE (926 FT)(MNDOT) 401 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WSW ROBBINSDALE (2854 FT)(APRSWXNET) 235 PM MAY 31 37 MPH
CRYSTAL ASOS (869 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
FLYING CLOUD ASOS (905 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
1 N MINNEAPOLIS (1066 FT)(APRSWXNET) 217 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
MINNEAPOLIS ASOS (836 FT)(ASOS) 953 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...ISANTI COUNTY...

2 W CAMBRIDGE (941 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 956 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...KANABEC COUNTY...

1 E MORA (1013 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1057 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
1 ENE MORA (1012 FT)(RAWS) 1108 PM MAY 31 42 MPH

...KANDIYOHI COUNTY...

3 WSW PRINSBURG (3504 FT)(APRSWXNET) 1127 AM MAY 31 34 MPH
4 NW WILLMAR (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 315 PM MAY 31 46 MPH

...LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY...

MADISON (1115 FT)(IEM) 427 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
2 SSE MADISON (1082 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 434 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
5 SSW MARIETTA (1169 FT)(MNDOT) 313 PM MAY 31 54 MPH

...MARTIN COUNTY...

2 ENE FAIRMONT (1161 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 415 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...MCLEOD COUNTY...

1 WSW HUTCHINSON (1051 FT)(APRSWXNET) 503 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
3 E GLENCOE (990 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 515 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
1 SSW HUTCHINSON (1059 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...MEEKER COUNTY...

3 S LITCHFIELD (1076 FT)(RAWS) 411 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...MILLE LACS COUNTY...

1 WSW PRINCETON (977 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 813 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
7 SE ONAMIA (1259 FT)(RAWS) 536 PM MAY 31 42 MPH
8 N MILACA (1195 FT)(MNDOT) 1039 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...POPE COUNTY...

3 E GLENWOOD (1394 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 48 MPH
9 SSW STARBUCK (1272 FT)(MNDOT) 631 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...RAMSEY COUNTY...

1 NW NORTH SAINT PAUL (981 FT)(APRSWXNET) 730 PM MAY 31 31 MPH
2 ESE ROSEVILLE (964 FT)(APRSWXNET) 702 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
SAINT PAUL ASOS (685 FT)(ASOS) 553 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...REDWOOD COUNTY...

REDWOOD FALLS ASOS (1023 FT)(ASOS) 653 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...RICE COUNTY...

3 NW FARIBAULT (1056 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 814 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
7 W NORTHFIELD (999 FT)(MNDOT) 315 PM MAY 31 40 MPH
NORTHFIELD (908 FT)(APRSWXNET) 655 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...SCOTT COUNTY...

1 NNW PRIOR LAKE (938 FT)(APRSWXNET) 145 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WNW JORDAN (826 FT)(APRSWXNET) 204 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 NW SHAKOPEE (800 FT)(APRSWXNET) 320 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
2 WSW PRIOR LAKE (970 FT)(APRSWXNET) 216 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...STEARNS COUNTY...

4 ESE AVON (1200 FT)(APRSWXNET) 418 PM MAY 31 30 MPH
1 E SAINT JOSEPH (1106 FT)(APRSWXNET) 504 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 WSW PAYNESVILLE (1181 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 412 PM MAY 31 46 MPH
1 SE RICHMOND (1089 FT)(APRSWXNET) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 655 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
3 ESE BELGRADE (1249 FT)(MNDOT) 336 PM MAY 31 51 MPH
2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(MNDOT) 347 PM MAY 31 53 MPH

...STEELE COUNTY...

5 NNE ELLENDALE (1192 FT)(MNDOT) 128 PM MAY 31 42 MPH
3 NW OWATONNA (1148 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...SWIFT COUNTY...

2 W BENSON (1040 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 212 PM MAY 31 45 MPH
2 NE APPLETON (1020 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 51 MPH

...WASECA COUNTY...

3 WSW WASECA (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1240 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

2 N HASTINGS (2270 FT)(APRSWXNET) 255 PM MAY 31 30 MPH
2 E LAKE ELMO (935 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 755 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...WRIGHT COUNTY...

2 ESE BUFFALO (967 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 534 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
1 ENE MAPLE LAKE (1026 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 513 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
1 SE CLEARWATER (995 FT)(MNDOT) 422 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY...

4 SSW GRANITE FALLS (1046 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 213 PM MAY 31 48 MPH
1 NNE CANBY (1191 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 505 PM MAY 31 49 MPH
HANLEY FALLS (1068 FT)(MNDOT) 310 PM MAY 31 49 MPH

...WISCONSIN...

...EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

1 NW AUGUSTA (970 FT)(RAWS) 405 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
4 WNW FAIRCHILD (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 603 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...PIERCE COUNTY...

1 W BAY CITY (784 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...POLK COUNTY...

2 ESE SAINT CROIX FALLS (1190 FT)(WIDOT) 818 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 NNE FREDERIC (1273 FT)(APRSWXNET) 249 PM MAY 31 41 MPH
1 SSE OSCEOLA (902 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 815 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...ST. CROIX COUNTY...

5 NW RIVER FALLS (895 FT)(WIDOT) 1013 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 N NEW RICHMOND (997 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 235 PM MAY 31 40 MPH
1 WSW HUDSON (740 FT)(WIDOT) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA.

Next up: Warm front surges back north

A warm front will surge back north into Minnesota late tonight. As it does, "nocturnal" showers and T-Storms will likely develop along the front in southern Minnesota late tonight. Storms should be scattered, and some may contain hail and gusty winds overnight and early Thursday.

NAM model hints at scattered T-Storms overnight.

Heat builds Thursday & Friday:

Behind the front, a hot sticky tropical summer-like air mass will gurgle north into Minnesota. It's going to feel like summer by Thursday afternoon right through Friday.

The hot hazy air mass will give us our first shot at 90-degree + temps by late Thursday or Friday in southern Minnesota.

Models hinting at 90 by Friday!

The air mass will feature tropical humidity levels, with dew points approaching the sultry 70 degree mark late Thursday & Friday!

Dew points near 70 possible.

The best chance for severe storms appears to be in North Dakota and northern Minnesota Thursday, according to SPC.

SPC risk area Thursday.

Weekend cool front:

A cooler front will slide through early Saturday morning. It looks like the front could come through dry, ushering in a fresher air mass for the weekend. There will be a noticeable drop in humidity this weekend as dew points fall into the comfortable 50s.

Overall this could be a very nice early summer-like weekend, with just a chance of an isolated T-Storm Sunday. We'll have to keep an eye on that as the weekend unfolds.

Hurricane season now underway:

It's June 1st, the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The various forecasts call for above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic again this year. While seasonal hurricane forecasts get a lot of attention, you have to wonder at times... is there is really any value to seasonal hurricane forecasts?

There are two main reasons why I do not give credibility to seasonal hurricane forecasts.

1) Accuracy: There have been some dismal errors over the past few hurricane seasons.

An excerpt from my post last April:

Posted at 5:01 PM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

"The annual April seasonal hurricane forecast is out today from the folks at Colorado State University (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray. After the past few years of iffy forecast results, some are asking; where's the value in producing seasonal hurricane forecasts?

Looking back at the past 5 years of April CSU hurricane forecasts, the accuracy of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts is at best mixed. They had a very good year in 2008, but in every other year the forecasts have show an error rate of 33% or higher in either the number of named storms or hurricanes. In addition to badly missing the lowest number of hurricanes since 1997 in the 2009 forecast, CSU's April 2005 forecast of 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes completely missed the notion of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. In addition to the devastating Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005 produced a record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic. The CSU team under forecast both the number of named storms and hurricanes in 2005 by over 50%."

Not to pick on CSU, NOAA doesn't fare much better. Jeff Masters has the details.

"How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?

A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast (Figure 2). Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast."

2) Lack of landfall projections.

If you think predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is hard, try predicting the number that will make landfall! There were no land falling hurricanes in the USA in 2009 or 2010. Even with an active season last year, an accurate seasonal hurricane forecast had no value in predicting hurricane damage potential.

Short term hurricane forecasts have more value:

The real, demonstrable value lies in short term hurricane forecasts such as those issued by the National Hurricane Center. A 2004 paper in The Journal of Applied Meteorology estimates the value of existing 48-hour hurricane forecast information to oil and gas producers averaged roughly $8 million per year during the 1990s, which substantially exceeds the operating budget of the National Hurricane Center.

It appears clear that the real return on investment value in improving hurricane forecasts lies in the continued improvement in short term hurricane landfall and intensity forecasts. The seasonal hurricane forecasts make great headlines, but are they really worth the time, effort and investment in research dollars?

Mosquito Tracker:

Those first pesky "Minnesota State Birds" are biting at the weather lab. If you live in the metro you can see where the MMCD has treated mosquito breeding areas near your home.

Good luck!

PH

June opens with AM sky show, active hurricane season?

Posted at 4:07 PM on May 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Hurricanes

Can you believe it's June already?

June begins at midnight Wednesday, and signs of the season have arrived at the weather lab.

I saw and heard the first June Bugs sluggishly buzzing around the weather lab after dark Monday evening.

June is our brightest month in terms of daylight in Minnesota.

Daylight calculator shows 15.2 hours of daylight on June 1st for the Twin Cities.

You can calculate daylight for any location here.

Trademark long evening daylight peaks the last week of June, when sunset times are as late as 9:03pm in the metro, 9:14pm in the Brainerd Lakes area and 9:35 in Hallock in the northwest corner of Minnesota!

If you figure in "Civil Twilight" there is light in the sky as late as 10:17pm on clear evenings in the northwest corner of Minnesota in late June.

Sunrise sunset and "civil twilight" for Hallock, Minnesota in June.

You could call places like Roseau and Hallock land of the 10pm sun!

You can find sunrise & sunset times anywhere in Minnesota with this nifty sunrise & sunset calendar.

Morning Sky Show:

If you're an early riser there is still a nice grouping of planets in the sky before sunrise in the east.

Look to the east about 30-45 minutes before sunrise and you'll see Jupiter. Mars, Venus and Mercury shining brightly low on the eastern horizon.

Bright planets dot the pre-dawn horizon sky on June 1st.
(Image courtesy UA Flandrau Science Center)

The sky show is a remnant of the amazing show that lasted all month long in May. With so many cloudy mornings in May you might have missed out, but Wednesday morning looks clear in southern Minnesota at least.

Here's a description of the show as it unfolded in May from NASA.

Lightning strikes Willmar NOAA weather radio transmitter:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
934 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE WILMAR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TOWER IN NEW LONDON MN IS NOT
TRANSMITTING.

A LOCAL CITIZEN ALERTED THE NWS OF POSSIBLE PROBLEMS EARLIER THIS
EVENING. AFTER CONFIRMATION THAT INFORMATION WAS BEING SENT TO
THE RADIO...BUT WAS NOT DISTRIBUTED FROM THE TRANSMITTER...MN DOT
SENT A TECHNICIAN TO THE SITE TOO EVALUATE THE PROBLEM. THE
TECHNICIAN SUSPECTED THAT THE TOWER WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AS
SEVERAL COMPONENTS HAVE MELTED. PARTS WILL BE ORDERED ON TUESDAY
BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE TRANSMITTER TO BE FIXED.

THOSE INDIVIDUALS THAT USE THE WILMAR TRANSMITTER AS THEIR PRIMARY
TRANSMITTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO TRY THE ST CLOUD TRANSMITTER...THE
OLIVIA TRANSMITTER OR THE KENSINGTON TRANSMITTER AS ALTERNATES TO
RECEIVE WEATHER AND WARNING INFORMATION. ANOTHER OPTION IS TO
REFER TO THE NWS TWIN CITIES WEB PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MPX

Hurricane season opens June 1st!

After a winter packed with a parade of winter storms and the most tornadic spring since the 1950's you'd think the USA would be due for a break in extreme weather. Think again.

June 1st mark the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season. (June 1- November 30th)

Various forecast this year call for an above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin this year.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters already sees potential tropical trouble brewing in the Caribbean Sea.

Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

"The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week."

The GFS model is hinting at a potential tropical system near Florida in about 10 days.

The USA got really lucky with no hurricane landfalls during an active Atlantic season in 2010. My hunch is that's not going to happen again this year, and we'll likely see some hurricanes and possible a major hurricane strike the U.S. Coastline this year.

Stay tuned!

PH

Wow Video: The 5 minute 2010 hurricane season

Posted at 6:00 AM on December 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

This is just too good.

If you have a minute (okay 5 minutes) fire up this mesmerizing NOAA time lapse video of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. The 6 month hurricane season is condensed into 5 minutes. Run this full screen for the full effect.

A couple of key features jump out to my eye immediately and are worth looking for.

-Notice how as the storms form and move west in the tropical easterlies, then are suddenly steered away from the USA by the strong westerly winds over the eastern USA. We call this "recurvature." In 2010, the westerlies were relatively strong and quite persistent. Notice how they tear away at hurricane circulation as they encounter the shearing winds.

The strong westerlies combined with a frequent low pressure circulation just off the east coast over the North Atlantic; as they shoved one storm after another harmlessly away form U.S. soil in 2010.

-Also focus your eyes in the upper left part of the screen over Minnesota. You can see the fast moving jet stream dealing storm cluster after storm cluster over the Upper Midwest during the summer of 2010.

This pattern produced a record 104 (final) tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, smashing the previous annual record of 74 from 2001, with Minnesota leading the nation in tornadoes for the first time ever on record in 2010.

It's pretty cool to watch half a year's weather wiz by in 5 minutes from 22,000 miles in space.

PH

Storm Backwash: Windy, colder, snow showers

Posted at 7:39 AM on November 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes, Snow, Winter storms

Update 7:42 am:

Next batch of snow showers rotating into metro now. Expect wind, cold and snow showers to continue this morning, and gradually taper this afternoon.

Still accumulating snow in Duluth and northeast Minnesota today. Expect another 1" to 3" in much of northen Minnesota today. Duluth has picked up 5.5" so far...still snowing heavily at times.

MNDOT traffic cam at I-94 & Co Road 81 in NW metro shows snow slicked highway Tuesday morning.

Snowfall totals range from 1" to 2" around most of the metro...with 4" on the high end in Cambridge in the far north.

I've recorded 1" of snow at the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven. More impressively...I picked up .61" of rain Monday!

Redwood Falls gets the coveted (cursed?) Golden Snow Shovel Award with 10"!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS SINCE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------- --------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0145 AM
5.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0200 AM
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0545 AM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0439 AM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0150 AM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM

Also Waconia 1.8" & Prior Lake 1.2"...

A rather disorganized low pressure system is still winding up early Tuesday, even though most of the moisture fell as rain in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The next phase of this storm system will be wind, cold, and wrap around snow showers. Expect occasional waves of snow through Tuesday morning as the cold backwash on the back side of the system kicks in.

Rain changed to snow at the Huttner Weather Lab near the east end of Lake Minnetonka at 11:20pm.

Expect some slick roadways, especially west and north of the greater Twin Cities Tuesday for AM rush.

Some areas (including parts of the metro) will still see 1" to 3" total snowfall accumulations with occasional snow showery bursts today.

Winds will increase from the west and northwest Tuesday, gusting to over 30 mph in much of Minnesota. This will cause some blowing snow in open areas that have seen accumulations. Wet spots will freeze as temperatures drop Tuesday.

Temperatures will drop through the 20s, and wind chills will dip to near zero in many locations as winter like weather regains a foothold.

Wind chills will dip below zero by Tuesday evening.

Because of the storms westerly track and abundant moisture, the system was still able to crank out some impressive rainfall amounts in the warm sector. There were also some decent snow totals in the colder air on the storm's west side.

Here are some rain and snow totals as of late Monday evening.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
914 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0645 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM
0.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0653 PM

Some snow totals form Duluth NWS:

0838 PM DULUTH M1.7 INCH OFFICIAL NWS TOTAL SO FAR.

1004 PM 5 N VIRGINIA M5.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER

Allow some extra time getting around Tuesday.

Odds & ends:

-Winter starts off with a bang in Duluth.

This month Duluth recorded the most consecutive days with snowfall in nerly 17 years! Details here.

-USA "lucks out" in busy 2010 hurricane season.

One of the busiest on record with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The USA escaped without a major land falling hurricane this year...remarkable considering the sheer number of storms. Favorable short term weather patterns steered one storm after another out to the open Atlantic.

An atmospheic "force field" seemed to steer storms away from the USA in 2010.

Details from NOAA here.

-Lakes getting warmer?

In the first comprehensive global survey of temperature trends in major lakes, NASA researchers determined Earth's largest lakes have warmed during the past 25 years in response to climate change.

Researchers Philipp Schneider and Simon Hook of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., used satellite data to measure the surface temperatures of 167 large lakes worldwide.

They reported an average warming rate of 0.45 degrees Celsius (0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, with some lakes warming as much as 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. The warming trend was global, and the greatest increases were in the mid- to high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Lake Tahoe. (Credit NASA/JPL)

The story from NASA's JPL here.

PH

Cold air lags: Lack of Canada snow cover

Posted at 8:42 AM on November 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Snow

It's November and finally a real Canadian air mass is surging south. But it's still above freezing and 10 degrees above average in most of Minnesota.

It seems Canadian cold fronts are just not what they used to be so far this fall.

A lack of snow cover over much of Canada so far this month may be the reason why our first November cold front features temperatures that are still at or above seasonal averages.

Air masses absorb and retain the properties of the regions they are born in and move over. Think of snow cover as a big block of ice...if you pass your hand over the top you can feel the cooler air. No snow, no cool air. Our air mass coming south from western Canada has travelled over bare ground on the trip to Minnesota.

If you travel northwest from Minnesota the ground is snow free for at least 1,000 miles.

A milder westerly air flow returns this weekend, and the lack of snow in the Upper Midwest will allow temperatures to recover more quickly than they might in other years. Hunters will enjoy mild conditions in the field this weekend, but will not have the benefit of "tracking snow."

East Coast swamped:

Low pressure east of Washington D.C. is dumping heavy rainfall to much of the eastern USA today. The space shuttle launch was scrubbed by bad weather today in Florida. Heavy rain is delaying flights in the northeast.

Tropical trouble for Haiti:

The Atlantic Hurricane season is not done just yet.

Tropical Storm Thomas may become Hurricane Thomas in the next 24 hours as it rakes Haiti through Friday. The storm will likely dump 5 to 10" (with isolated 15" totals) of unwelcome rainfall to the mountainous nation, which is still reeling from earthquake damage.

PH

Lucky hurricane season

Posted at 4:45 PM on October 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Predictions of an active Atlantic hurricane season have been in the ball park this year. The good news is the storms have steered clear of the USA.

Here are the numbers for Atlantic tropical cyclones so far in 2010:

16 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

Those are some pretty respectable (and scary) numbers in a normal hurricane season. Amazingly, the USA has been spared a direct hurricane hit so far this year.

Take a look at the tracks below and you can see why. The primary steering mechanism for storms has been a large Bermuda high which curved storms around the west side of the ridge before they could reach the U.S. east coast. Other favored tracks this year have sent storms south into Mexico.

(Wikipedia Commons image courtesy Cyclonebiskit and Syntheticalconnections)

To have 5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin miss the USA is a lucky year.
Both the CSU (18 NS-10 Hurricanes-5 Major) and NOAA (17 NS-10 Hurricanes-5 Major) mid-season hurricane forecasts turned out pretty good this year for sheer numbers after a number of non-stellar forecast years.

Thankfully for the U.S. there has been a drought in major (Category 3 and higher) hurricanes striking the USA since 2005. The Pacific has also seen a relatively quiet season this year. More from hurricane expert Jeff Masters here.

PH

New GOES 15: Amazing Igor images

Posted at 8:20 AM on September 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall

NOAA is showing off some amazing images from the new GOES 15 weather satellite.

Check out the loop of Hurricane Igor. The loop begins with images every 30 minutes and then shows images every minute a few seconds in. Notice the incredible detail in Igor's eye. Talk about showing off a new weather toy!

GOES-15, has successfully completed five months of on-orbit testing and has been accepted into service. It is the third and final spacecraft in the GOES N-P Series of geostationary environmental weather satellites.

Wednesday super soaker:

Wednesday looks like a good day to test that new rain coat or umbrella. A strong low pressure system will slide east into Minnesota from the Dakotas Wednesday. Look for rain to begin in northwest Minnesota Wednesday morning, then spread east across the rest of the state by midday and afternoon. The heaviest, steadiest rains will fall from after lunchtime into early Wednesday evening before the rain tapers off Wednesday night from west to east.

(click for bigger image)

Rainfall totals could be significant. The models are cranking out between .50" and 1.50"+ depending on where you live, and the exact track of the system. Some isolated 2" amounts appear possible in a band north of the I-94 corridor from Alexandria to the north metro.

The sun will return on Thursday for a nice September day.

PH

Weather winning streak hits 3

Posted at 8:36 AM on September 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Talk about perfect timing.

Minnesota's weather winning streak hit 3 today, as sunshine and comfortable temperatures rule for the 3rd consecutive day.

The best weekend weather in recent memory was welcome to those I spoke with this weekend. Total sunshine and highs near 70 Saturday and pushing 80 on Sunday in southern Minnesota was just the tonic for storm weary Minnesotans.

Highs reached 80 in southern Minnesota Sunday.

High pressure is in charge, and it will linger into part of Tuesday before the weather pattern begins to change. Look for more clouds Tuesday to mix in with some sun, and temperatures will run a few degrees cooler with mostly 60s statewide.

Next soaker Wednesday:

The next significant low pressure wave will ride into the forecast Wednesday. Look for rain to spread form west to east during the day. Some of the forecast models are wringing out .50"+ for southern Minnesota.

(click for bigger image)

The one day system gives way to sunshine again Thursday, before a strong cold front drops through Friday.

Weekend cool snap:

The coolest air so far this September appears headed this way for the upcoming weekend. Cool Canadian high pressure will nose into Minnesota, bringing likely frost to northern Minnesota and crisp nights in the 40s in the south. We should see plenty of sun next weekend, but highs may stall in the 50s north and lower 60s south.

Atlantic hurricane season in high gear:

Of all the hurricane names I's like to avoid, Igor tops the list. Hurricane Igor just sounds threatening and dangerous, and it is. With maximum sustained winds ripping at 150mph, Igor is a STRONG Category 4 hurricane Monday morning, and could reach rare Category 5 status today.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

With Igor, Tropical Storm Julia off the Cape Verde Islands, and a gathering storm near Jamaica there are now three tropical systems sprawling out in the Atlantic.

The good news is it appears that none are a threat to the USA, at least for now.

PH

Earl, Minnesota tornadoes, and a pretty good weekend.

Posted at 4:50 PM on September 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Weekend

Talk about a close call.

As Hurricane Earl sideswipes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the next potential target is battening down the hatches.

Cape Cod appears to be in line for another close encounter with Earl late Friday night.

Earl finally made the expected turn to the north-northeast late Thursday.

Though Earl is expected to weaken a bit ("weaker hurricane"...there's an oxymoron for you) it may still bring hurricane force winds to Cape Cod this weekend.

Gaston Next?

After Earl's east coast encounter all eyes will turn toward Gaston. Fiona is forecast to fizzle, but Gaston has at least some potential become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico and will bear watching next week.

Minnesota tornadoes generate international interest:

Not to overstate this, but I found it interesting to get a call today from a reporter in Canada about Minnesota's tornado numbers this year. Shane Judge is a reporter for the CBC News in Thunder Bay, Ontario. It seems our 145 preliminary tornado reports are getting some attention north of the border.

Shane says the meteorologists at Environment Canada (Canada's version of the National Weather Service) are reporting increased severe weather numbers this year in southwestern Ontario as well. You never think of Atikokan as tornado alley, but in this crazy summer it seems anything is possible.

Tanker runs aground in ice free Arctic:

It seems our new ice free summers in the Arctic are creating new opportunities and potential hazards for shipping. Check this out from CBC.

Pretty Good Weekend:

After Friday's foray into fall, the weather will mellow this weekend.

Look for a blustery Friday with highs on the 60s and a brisk gusty northwest wind at 15 to 30 mph over the lakes. Showers will spit rain in northeast Minnesota, and may roll down I-35 to just north and east of the metro by Friday PM.

Saturday and Sunday look spectacular statewide, and will be the best days to enjoy one last summer boat trip onto your favorite lake.

Look for plenty of sun, lighter winds and highs in the 60s Saturday with 70s statewide Sunday. Overnight lows will be nippy in the 40s north and near 50 south.

Labor Day will feature a strong southeast wind, a little more warmth and humidity and a chance of scattered thunderstorms.

PH

145 mph: Hurricane Earl near peak intensity

Posted at 8:30 AM on September 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall

The strongest storm of the Atlantic hurricane season so far is exploding with intensity today.

Hurricane Earl packs winds of 145 mph as it turns north for a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight. Earl is at or near peak intensity today as it rides over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Earl is a potentially catastrophic Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale.

Here are the Thursday AM stats on Earl from NHC:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

The eye of Earl is expected to pass just east the Outer Banks late tonight. Hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from Earl's center, and tropical storm force winds extend about 130 miles from Earl.

Regardless of the exact path of Earl's potentially devastating eyewall, the size of Earl will bring hurricane force winds and dangerous storm surge to the Outer Banks overnight tonight.

Cape Cod Next?

Earl's track has been shifted slightly to the west after about 24 hours. That brings the possibility of a direct hit or very near miss on Cape Cod into play Friday night into Saturday morning.

September chill blows in:

Get set for the coldest air mass in nearly 3 months.

Temperatures are in the 40s and upper 30s in Saskatchewan this morning. That chill air mass will spill in behind a cold front tonight.

Friday will bring blustery northwest winds and temperatures that will struggle to climb out of the 60s.

The Fairgrounds picked up .68" of rain this morning, making this likely the wettes day of the Fair in 2010. Look for a mix of clouds and sun today, with a few more pop up showers possible.

The weather will mellow for the Labor Day weekend with more sun and highs climbing back into the 70s. After a dry Saturday and Sunday, the next chance of showers will move this way on Labor Day.

PH

Earl takes aim

Posted at 5:28 PM on September 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

They're battening down the hatches on the Outer Banks.

The NHC upgraded Hurricane Earl back to a Category 4 monster hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale late Wednesday. Earl's track has also been shifting slightly west with each passing day, and the "official" track for Earl now brings the eye just off North Carolina's Outer Banks in the wee hours of Friday morning.

The wind field with Earl is large enough that hurricane force winds are now likely on the Outer Banks. Any westward shift of the track could bring Earl's potentially devastating eyewall ashore. Here's the discussion form NHC.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

Stay tuned as Earl takes aim at the Outer Banks and possibly the New England this week.

Colder fronts:

You'll notice a nip of September in the air by Friday.

An approaching cold front will kick off another bout of showers and T-Storms overnight into early Thursday. Behind the front, the season's coldest air pushes in.

Temperatures will not climb out of the 60s in most of Minnesota Friday.

Cold fronts gain strength as we move into September for one main reason. Shorter daylight and longer nights allow more radiational cooling at night. That means air masses coming out of Canada have had more time to cool off compared to June and July. We've lost over 2 hours and 15 minutes of daylight since June 21st in the metro. The longer nights mean progressively more potent cold fronts as we move deeper into September and October.

PH

Close Shave: Will Earl make U.S. landfall?

Posted at 5:17 PM on August 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Hurricane forecasters are sweating this one.

Major Hurricane Earl is making the turn toward the northwest, and headed directly for the Carolina Coast today. The "official" forecast is for Earl to turn north tomorrow and narrowly miss the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The track is so close that any jog to the west in the Earl's track could mean a direct hit on either the Outer Banks, or further up the East Coast toward Nantucket Island.

Earl has undergone an "eyewall replacement cycle" today. That means the eye has temporarily disappeared, but is likely to reform overnight. Earl could emerge as an even stronger storm when the latest eyewall replacement cycle is complete.

Hurricane Earl going through eyewall replacement. Note the dense line of clouds fanning out west of Earl. This is a low level "outflow boundary" generated by Earl. Loop courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Here are the latest stats on Earl from the NHC:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

Intensity forecasts keep Earl as a major hurricane for about the next 24 to 36 hours, with some gradual weakening after that as it approaches cooler waters.

Bottom line? The next 24 to 48 hours will be critical to watch for any changes in Earl's track, and to see how an upper level trough moving in from the west will recurve of Earl to the north.

As we say in the news and weather biz....stay tuned.

Temperature Shock Ahead: September chill Friday

You may be wondering what happened to summer by Friday. The strongest cold front of the season will plow through by Friday. After bouts of rain Thursday, temperatures may not climb out of the 60s Friday with a blustery northwest wind.

Friday could be the coolest day since June 13th when the metro reached 67 degrees!

It's going to feel like September out at the Fair Friday. The weather will mellow this weekend, and it looks like we'll warm back through the 70s to near 80 by Labor Day.

PH

Major Hurricane Earl: (And a slight severe risk for Minnesota)

Posted at 8:45 AM on August 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall, Severe weather

Powerful Hurricane Earl has the attention of the U.S. East Coast.

The powerful Category 4 storm is the season's first major hurricane, and it looks to make a close pass on North Carolina's Outer Banks Thursday. Here are the numbers from NHC.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
900 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

Intensity forecasts for Earl fluctuate between about 135 and 140 mph for the next 36 hours, with a gradual decrease in wind speed after that. Earl will likely still be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it brushes the North Carolina coast Thursday.

The latest model trends continue to push Earl westward, a little closer to the Carolina coast Thursday. There is a chance Earl could score a direct hit on the Outer Banks. Even if the center of Earl passes off shore, the storm will still trigger coastal flooding and erosion with pounding waves and storms surge.

Check out the radar loop from Pureto Rico as Earl passes by to the north of the island.

Storm risk again today:

Round one of thunderstorms woke many of us overnight. Lighting and heavy downpours we're the featured fare with the early AM storms.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints a swath of 2" to 3" rainfall west of the metro.

There are some impressive rainfall reports from overnight in southwest Minnesota.

Montevideo 2.20"
Granite Falls 3"

Amounts were lighter but significant in the Twin Cities area.

MSP Airport .35"
Huttner Weather Lab (west metro) .45"
Forest Lake .90"

Round #2 should develop this afternoon, but the intensity and location of the storms could be largely cloud dependant.

If the debris clouds from the morning storms breaks, and we get ample sun early this afternoon we could see storms fire near the metro late PM. If the clouds hold a little longer, storms may form east of the Twin Cities and shift the sever weather potential to Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota and Iowa.

Stay tuned for possible watches and warnings late this afternoon.

PH

Atlantic Roars: Tropical Storm in Iceland?

Posted at 5:15 PM on August 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, Severe weather

We don't really think of Iceland and Greenland as tropical storm territory, but that may change this week.

Tropical Storm Danielle is making her way through the North Atlantic these days. The still near hurricane strength storm is packing 70 mph winds about 425 miles SSE of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The latest guidance for Danielle maintains tropical storm strength for the system as it moves north toward Iceland or the southern tip of Greenland in the next 5 days.

Tropical storms north of 55N are relatively rare, and Iceland sits at 65N. Pretty rare stuff in this summer of global weather extremes.

Earl intensifies:

Hurricane Earl has ramped up to a monster Category 4 hurricane. The fierce storm packs winds of 135mph as of late Monday.

Earl is expected to recurve just east of the eastern U.S. coastline and may graze the North Carolina Outer Banks and or Cape Cod with a glancing blow this week. High surf and coastal erosion will pound the beaches of the east coast this week. Look for you favorite Weather Channel reporter to be out in the pounding surf this week.

Fiona Forms:

The next tropical system is ramping up as an easterly wave that came off Cape Verde has become Tropical Storm Fiona. Hopefully "Fi" will not be as dangerous as our favorite Burn Notice character, but Fiona is expected to maintain strength as she tracks northwest toward the northern Lesser Antilles.

Expect storms to rumble across Minnesota from west to east overnight. Severe weather watches are posted tonight for the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota.

Storms Return:

I'm back from vacation so that must mean that after a mostly storm free week, thunder is back in the forecast. If you're tired of the storms, I'm right there with you this summer.

Thunder may rumble into the Twin Cities metro well after midnight or toward morning, with the best chances for rain and thunder lingering through Tuesday. There will be a chance for some severe weather on Tuesday so keep a weather eye to the sky.

(click for bigger image)

PH

Danielle has the spotlight

Posted at 2:23 PM on August 26, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Hurricanes

Enhanced IR Satellite image of Danielle 215PM EDT.

Here is the late morning update on Danielle from the National Hurricane Center.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

See the previous blog for the forecast track of Danielle. Tropical Storm Earl has the potential to increase to hurricane strength by Saturday.
CE

Dynamic duo

Posted at 7:21 AM on August 26, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Hurricanes

National Hurricane Centers forecast track for Danielle.

As noted early in the week, we have entered the peak season for tropical weather. There are back to back storms that experts at the Hurricane Center are currently tracking. Danielle is expected to strenghten to major hurricane level in the next twenty-four hours as the center tracks northwest. Category three hurricanes, with sustained winds of greater than 110 miles an hour, are considered major hurricanes.

Tropical storm Earl is likely to strengthen into a hurricane by early Saturday. Follow the forecast track of Earl here.
CE

Open season in the Tropics

Posted at 7:02 AM on August 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Hurricanes

From the Tropical Storm Prediction Center/NOAA, the historical tracking of the hurricane season. We have entered the peak season for hurricanes. Read on for more on the storm developing in the Atlantic.

Early Saturday morning conditions may have felt nearly tropical in southern Minnesota. Shortly after daybreak, shrouded by fog, the dewpoint matched the temperature of seventy degrees, resulting in one hundred percent humidity. If you were out jogging you finished with your shirt pasted to your body.

Today will be another warm one across the state, before a cool front blows through tonight. Look for a band of thundershowers to develop late afternoon in northwest Minnesota. The showers are likely to exit into Wisconsin before dawn on Tuesday.

You will notice the change in the air mass on Tuesday with refreshing northwest winds. The mercury will likely remain in the seventies in the warmth of the afternoon, falling into the 40s and 50s by early Wednesday morning. In the Twin Cities, expect Thursday morning to be the coolest morning since May 31st when we dipped to fifty-one degrees.

Meanwhile there is tropcial system that is likely to become Hurricane Danielle in the Atlantic. At this time there is no immediate threat to the US mainland. Track the forecast from the National Hurricane Center here.

Heat continues in the deep south, where the temperatures will exceed one hundred degrees in Texas today. Arlington will top out at about one hundred and three degrees late this afternoon.

Fresh air filters in

Posted at 8:30 AM on August 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Aurora, Hurricanes, Northern lights

What a difference a day makes.

A dry and welcome transfusion of clean Canadian air is giving air conditioners a rest in the Upper Midwest today. Dew points have dropped from the tropical 70s into the comfortable 50s over the past 48 hours.

The drier air will last through Friday, before a warm front gurgles back north and brings a renewed surge of 90 degree heat and sticky humidity this weekend.

Dew points may spike well into the sticky 70s again by Sunday!
(click to enlarge image)

As the front bubbles north Saturday, it's likely a few thunderstorms will follow. One or two has the potential be severe later Saturday night into Sunday, according to SPC.

Aurora strikes again:

Reports indicate the northern lights flashed again last night in northern Europe. Apparently the sky was lit brightly enough to show the aurora over the city lights of Stockholm, Sweden. Amazing images were also captured over Norway.

Check out spaceweather.com to see the latest images.

Colin part 2?

The remnants of what once was tropical storm Colin show signs orf renewal in the Atlantic. NHC says there is a 50% chance that the system may reach tropical storm strength once again.

The suite of forecast models steer Colin harmlessly out to sea away from the east coast.

PH

Aurora Watch

Posted at 8:50 AM on August 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Heat, Hurricanes

Late night star gazers may get a rare treat tonight.

A solar flare and significant coronal mass ejection (CME) is sending a burst of solar energy toward earth. The interaction with the earth's magnetosphere may produce auroras in the coming nights at high latitudes.

It is possible that auroras may be visible as far south as Minnesota. Keep an eye on the northern sky this week.

Welcome to the jungle.

Temperatures and humidity today will make it feel like the Amazon Jungle today in Minnesota. Temperatures will soar this afternoon to 90 degrees in much of southern Minnesota. Combine that reading with oppressive dew points in the 70s and you get heat indices (feels like) temperatures of 100.

Take it easy in the heat today; it can sneak up on you.

Steamy July:

Minnesota has been fortunate so far this summer. A nasty heat wave has been persistent in the central and southern USA with temperatures frequently topping 100.

Still, July made a mark in Minnesota. The average monthly temperature was 76.3 degrees. That's 3.1 degrees above average for the month, and a full 6.3 degrees warmer than last July!

July also marks the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota.

Rainfall at Twin Cities Airport was 3.03" in July. That's an inch beow average. But just to show all weather (and especially rainfall) is local, Eau Claire got doused with 7.66" of rain last month. That marks the 4th wettest July on Record for Eau Claire.

Tropical Storm Colin:

We have the 3rd named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Colin has 40 mph winds, and is still about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Various forecast models take Colin to a point southeast of the Carolina Coast in about 5 days. It's too early to tell if Colin will become a threat to the eastern U.S.

PH

Weekend Outlook: Half decent

Posted at 4:40 PM on July 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall

It looks like a half decent weekend in Minnesota. The question is which half?

Here's the scoop. Plan the day at the lake for Sunday.

A slow moving low pressure system will bring another wave or two of rain and thunder through southern Minnesota and Iowa this weekend. The next wave overnight and into Friday morning should again favor areas along the I-90 corridor. A flash flood watch has been posted for southwest Minnesota into Friday.

1" to 3" rainfall totals last night has saturated ground in the southern quarter of Minnesota, and it won't take much additional rainfall to get rapid rises in rivers and creeks.

The highest risk for severe weather Friday appreas to be south of the metro in southern Minnesota and into Iowa and Wisconsin.

For the metro and points north, it appears the heaviest and more persistent rains may stay south of us until Friday night. In fact, some of the models portray a fairly nice weather pattern until the next wave of storms rumbles in Friday night. That's the wave that could linger into Saturday, keeping a few persistent showers in the forecast until things finally clear out late in the day Saturday.

Sunday still looks like a classic. Plenty of sun, low humidity and warm temps in the 80s.

Tracking Bonnie?

Indications are Tropical Storm Bonnie may graze the southern tip of Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

PH

NHC: 60% chance for Tropical Storm Bonnie

Posted at 5:08 PM on July 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

We may be saying hello to Tropical Storm Bonnie in the next 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center is giving a vigorous tropical wave near Puerto Rico a 60% chance of strengthening into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

Tropical wave near Puerto Rico shows signs of development

If the system develops, it would become the second named storms of the season, Bonnie.

Bonnie is fighting a few variables in terms of development, according to Dr. Jeff Masters, hurricane guru at Weather Underground. Dry air out ahead of Bonnie may retard development.

Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

Various forecast models are pushing what could become Bonnie toward south Florida by Thursday or Friday. The system may possible track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico after that.

All eyes in the southeast U.S. will be watching for the potential for Bonnie in the coming days.

PH

Massive Mayfly hatch detected on doppler radar

Posted at 8:25 AM on July 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes, Remote sensing

The folks who invented Doppler never expected this.

A massive Mayfly hatch over the Mississippi last night near La Crosse shows up brilliantly on the Doppler radar reflectivity loop last night. The hatch occurred between about 9pm and 10pm from near Winona south through La Crosse and to near Guttenberg, Iowa.

Mayfly "cloud" visible on NWS La Crosse doppler radar Monday night.

As the dense "cloud" of Mayflies hatches and drifts over the river valley, it shows up on Doppler as the radar beam hits the cloud and returns to the radar site. Doppler radar is so sensitive that birds, insects and even dust are visible in clear air mode.

Tropical Storm Bonnie?

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the chance that a tropical wave near Puerto Rico will strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours from 20% to 40%. If it does, it would become tropical storm Bonnie.

Many forecast models then track the system toward the southeastern United States.

Stay tuned.

2010: Hottest year on record so far

It's either the mother of all coincidences or climate change is kicking into high gear.

We're half way through 2010 and NOAA reports that globally this is the hottest year on record so far. Check out these startling facts.

-June 2010 was the hottest on record globally (+1.22 degrees F)
-The past 4 MONTHS (Mar-Jun) have all been the hottest on record globally!
-2010 is on pace to be the hottest year on record globally (+1.22 degrees F)
-June was the 304th consecutive month above average globally!
-The last below average month was 25 years ago, February 1985. That's a lifetime for nearly 1/3 of the world's population.

2010 is on pace to surpass 1998 as the hottest year on record globally.

The data takes the wind out of the sails of those who would claim that the earth has been "cooling" since 1998. The 10 hottest years globally have all occurred since 1998, and there has not been one cooler than average year globally in 25 years.

You do the math.

PH

Forecast: Rain chances increase

Posted at 8:25 AM on July 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes, Rainfall

It may feel like the Amazon jungle around here one more time today.

Pooling surface moisture and an approaching cool front may trigger scattered showers and tropical downpours again this afternoon and evening in the southeast half of Minnesota.

(click for bigger image)

If the storms get going, some of the rainfall could be locally heavy.

NAM 84 hour rainfall shows 1" to 2" rainfall "bull's eye" right over Twin Cities metro.

Rainfall may exceed 1" in some areas. (click for bigger image)

Tropical dew point levels in the upper 60s and low 70s have been pooling down in Iowa. That moisture may get drawn north ahead of the front later today. Keep an eye out for developing showers and T-Storms anytime after 3pm and into tonight.

As the cool front sweeps through Thursday, a much drier air mass will bring an end to shower chances for a few days and usher in a much more comfortable less humid air mass. You can probably give the air conditioner a rest after today.

Forecast models indicate dew points falling into the comfortable 50s later this week.

Brewing Bonnie?

Watchful eyes are on a developing tropical wave moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico today. NHC says there is a 40% chance that the wave may become Tropical Storm Bonnie before landfall near the Texas Mexico border Thursday.

East Coast Heat Wave Day 2:

Many locations along the eastern seaboard will hit 100 again today. All six observing sites in the New York City area broke records Tuesday with Central Park sweltering at 103 degrees.

We can be grateful for some of the best (and most comfortable) weather on the planet the next few days.

PH

Tropical Trouble

Posted at 8:40 AM on July 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall

A tropical wave near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula may strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours.

Weather eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this week as one tropical wave pounds Louisiana with choppy seas and heavy downpours. Meanwhile, a second and stronger tropical wave is brewing near the Yucatan which could move into the Gulf and strengthen over the next 48 hours. NHC is giving the disturbance about a 30% chance of developing into the Atlantic's second named storm of the season.

Indications are the upper level steering currents will continue to move the wave northwest. Various forecast models are taking he system toward the Texas coast later this week. Overall conditions appear favorable for development, and all eyes will be on the Texas coast later this week.

Eastern Heat Wave:

It's way hotter than the 4th of July out east. Highs will reach 100 degrees today from New York to D.C. as a big area of intense high pressure sprawls out.

The so called Bermuda or Azores High often shifts west and sets up shop over the eastern U.S. during the summer months. This week, the system will trap heat over the east coast. Record power demand is forecast in many eastern cities as residents try to stay cool during the heat wave.

Minnesota's Rain Forest:

If you feel like you're living in the Amazon Jungle this week, you're not far off. Dew points with our extremely humid air mass have been in the 70s. That's a tropical moisture level we only see a few times during the summer in Minnesota.

With that kind of moisture in the air, tropical downpours can dump heavy rain in just a few minutes. Rainfall totals last night ranged from 1" to over 3" in and around eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

The sweaty air mass will linger through Wednesday, before a drier Canadian air mass eases in Thursday and Friday, bringing relief to sweaty Minnesotans.

PH

Alex eyes landfall

Posted at 8:25 AM on June 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

It didn't take long this year to produce the Atlantic's 1st hurricane.

GOES visible image shows a better organized Hurricane Alex approaching Mexico's Gulf Coast Wednesday.

Hurricane Alex is moving slowly (WNW 7 mph) toward shore today and is expected to make landfall along the coast of Mexico south of the Texas border just after midnight Thursday.

Here are the stats as of early Wednesday from NHC. Updated stats here.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Alex is a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but the slow moving storm may have enough time over the warm Gulf waters to strengthen before moving ashore. Winds could approach 100 mph just before landfall.

Alex is the first June hurricane to form in the Atlantic since 1995.

Rain bands from Alex reach as far east as the Louisiana coast today. Since Alex is a slow mover, one of the biggest threats will be extremely heavy rainfall in the order of 6 to 12 inches with isolated 20 inch totals over the next two days in northern Mexico and south Texas.

PH

Alex may become season's 1st hurricane

Posted at 3:33 PM on June 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

A somewhat disorganized Tropical Storm Alex may become the 1st hurricane of the Atlantic season in the next 48 hours.

Alex is located in the Bay of Campeche about 85 miles west of Campeche, Mexico. The storm has passed over land, and the interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula has prevented further strengthening so far. Conditions appear more favorable over the next 36 hours fro Alex to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the 2010 season.

Here are the stats from NHC:

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

NHC track for Alex

The official NHC track forecast takes Alex ashore just south of the Texas-Mexico border Thursday morning as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale with winds near 98 mph.

There has been some northward shift in the forecast track in the past few runs, but for now it still appears the brunt of the storm should pass south of the BP Horizon spill zone.

Still a storm that big will generate some increased ocean swells and wave heights along the Gulf Coast, which could be problematic for cleanup and containment efforts later this week.

PH

Will hurricanes spread Gulf oil inland?

Posted at 8:50 AM on May 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Gulf oil spill, Hurricanes

With the 2010 hurricane season just around the corner (June1-Nov 30th) there has been considerable speculation as to what will happen if/when a hurricane strikes the oil slick area in the Gulf of Mexico.

NASA MODIS satellite image shows growing oil slick off the Mississippi Delta on May 11th.
(click for bigger image)

This year there may be increased reason for concern. Hurricane forecasters expect an above average number of Atlantic hurricanes this year. And already tropical Atlantic SST's are running as much as 2 degrees C above average in the main development area (MDA) for Atlantic Hurricanes off the African coast.

The record warm water temperatures support the notion of increased Atlantic hurricane activity this year.

Tropcal Atlantic SST anomalies shows record warm water in the eastern Atlantic.

Here's what meteorologists know and don't know about hurricanes interacting with the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

What we think we know:

Hurricane development & intensity

-According to Dennis Feltgen from the National Hurricane Center, the oil slick wouldn't affect a hurricane's intensity or track. The circulations are too big and too well established, and hurricanes are driven by steering currents far above the ocean's surface.

-Oil on the ocean's surface DOES suppress evaporation of sea water. That could act to suppress tropical storm development as evaporation is a primary driver of tropical cyclone development.

Oil spill containment:

-High winds and rough seas would likely stop containment efforts destroy containment booms, opening shores to oil.

-Storm surges would likely carry increased volumes of oil to inland bays and beaches.

What we don't know:

-There is the possibility that hurricane force winds could lift oil off the sea surface and send it airborne in a blowing oily sea spray. If the oil and dispersant is aerosolized, it could be carried far inland and become a threat to crops and human health. We don't know what kind of wind speeds it would take to do this, and how far the toxic oily spray could travel. This is likely a worst case scenario.

-Will the Gulf Loop Current tap into the oil slick and drive it around Florida and toward the east coast? This may increase the likelihood of a hurricane impact over an oil slicked area.

Gulf of Mexico "Loop Current" may push oil eastward over time.

Bottom line: A hurricane over a major oil spill has never happened before in human history. We are literally in uncharted waters here. This is like a big lab experiment that may take place over the next 6 months. We just don't know how an oil slick this size and hurricanes will interact.

We may find out in the coming months.

PH

CSU Hurricane Forecasts: Where's the value?

Posted at 5:01 PM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

The annual April seasonal hurricane forecast is out today from the folks at Colorado State University (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray. After the past few years of iffy forecast results, some are asking; where's the value in producing seasonal hurricane forecasts?

The 2009 forecast was a huge bust for the CSU team. On April 7, 2009, the CSU team issued the spring updated forecast for the 2009 season. They called for near-average activity in 2009 of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

Instead, 2009 produced just 9 named Atlantic storms and only 3 hurricanes. That's the fewest number of Atlantic hurricanes since 1997. No hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2009.

Tracks of named storms in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Looking back at the past 5 years of April CSU hurricane forecasts, the accuracy of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts is at best mixed. They had a very good year in 2008, but in every other year the forecasts have show an error rate of 33% or higher in either the number of named storms or hurricanes. In addition to badly missing the lowest number of hurricanes since 1997 in the 2009 forecast, CSU's April 2005 forecast of 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes completely missed the notion of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. In addition to the devastating Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005 produced a record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic. The CSU team under forecast both the number of named storms and hurricanes in 2005 by over 50%.

There are several groups in addition to the renowned CSU forecasters that issue seasonal hurricane forecasts. NOAA, and private forecasters such as Britian's Tropical Storm Risk also produce seasonal hurricane forecasts. Many in the insurance industry are now questioning the accuracy and usefulness of seasonal hurricane forecasts.

A recent post from The National Association of Professional Insurance Agents asks the following question:

"What's the Insurance Value of Pre-season Hurricane Predictions?"

February 2, 2010

The bottom line for those living in hurricane country is that you have to prepare for each hurricane season in the same way. The great variability in the number and intensity of storms from one year to the next does not seem to allow us to extract great value from seasonal hurricane forecasts.

Short term hurricane forecasts have more value:

The real, demonstrable value lies in short term hurricane forecasts such as those issued by the National Hurricane Center. A 2004 paper in The Journal of Applied Meteorology estimates the value of existing 48-hour hurricane forecast information to oil and gas producers averaged roughly $8 million per year during the 1990s, which substantially exceeds the operating budget of the National Hurricane Center.

It appears clear that the real return on investment value in improving hurricane forecasts lies in the continued improvement in short term hurricane landfall and intensity forecasts. The seasonal hurricane forecasts make great headlines, but are they really worth the time, effort and investment in research dollars?

PH