Updraft Category Archive: Heat

Summery Preview; 1st 90 possible Friday; Thunder threat Saturday

Posted at 8:47 AM on May 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

Windy today Gusts to 30+ mph this afternoon

Whitecaps on Minnesota lakes today

Source: Twin Cities NWS

90 degrees possible Friday and Saturday in the metro

June 3rd 1st 90 degree day last year

May 28th average date of season's 1st 90 degree day in the past 5 years

17 days at or above 90 degrees in 2011 at MSP

14 days - average # of 90 degree days each year at MSP

Saturday thunder - Growing thunder threat Saturday PM & night

Winds of May:

"Gusty & Dusty" was the phrase in Arizona when the wind kicked up like today in Minnesota. Thankfully we've had rain, and grass and other green and growing things hold rich soil in place n Minnesota. We don't often see huge clouds of airborne dust.

A developing warm front will help spike southerly winds today 20 to 30+ mph in much of Minnesota.

Source: NWS

Look for whitecaps and some impressive waves to kick up Minnesota's 10,000+ on lakes today. More than a "walleye chop," waves on area lakes will be more like a "Northern Chop" the next two days. Be careful out there!

Source: NWS

Spotty showers & T-Storms:

The may be few and far between, but scattered showers and a T-Storm or two will ride the frontal boundary today. SPC is not impressed with severe potential, but a few of the more vigorous showers may aid gusts in an already gusty "synoptic" environment.

"Hot Front:" Season's 1st 90 for the metro?

As the "hot front" pushes north Friday, temps will make a run at 90 degrees in the metro and will likely see some mid 90s in western Minnesota.

One method of forecasting surface temps is to use the 850 millibar "mix down" method on breezy summer days. If you take the 850 millibar temp (about 5k feet up) and bring it down to the surface "dry adiabatically" you get a projected surface maximum or "high temp" for that day.

This was the tried and true technique at "Weather Command" in Chicago where I spent my early years cutting my teeth in this biz as an operational forecaster.

If you take Friday's NAM projected 850 millibar temp of +20C degrees and mix it down, you get about 90 to 94 degrees in western Minnesota...and perhaps as far east as the metro.

That assumes "100% of possible sunshine" and other factors falling into place. I'd say there's at least a 50/50 chance of hitting 90 in the metro Friday, and if everything goes right a few bank thermometers could flash as high as 92 late Friday afternoon.

If we reach 90 Friday and/or Saturday, it will be about 2 weeks earlier than the past 5 year average for the season's 1st 90 degree day at MSP, which has occurred about May 28th.

Does my AC still work?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Saturday Night (Fever) & Thunder Threat:

Temps will make another run at 90 Saturday in Minnesota, and the chances for thunder will grow from west to east.

A cool front will cut into western Minnesota late Saturday. Storms will line up along the front in western Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening. A few pop up storms can't be ruled out ahead of the front Saturday PM as far east as the metro, but the best chance for thunder and a soaking rain will come later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Source: ISU

The front should push out of here early Sunday, leaving a cooler and less humid day by Sunday afternoon.

Of course, the weather looks blissfully sunny and quiet as we start next week. I'll kick the weather computer to see if we can get the timing right for perfect weekends and rain during the week, preferably at night.

Good luck with that!

Storm Ready? Asking the right questions

It's great to hear MPR/KARE11 listeners and viewers are reacting to and thinking about our combined tornado readiness project this week.

Here's a great question from a listener.

Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 10:22 PM

To: Huttner, Paul
Subject: Question about Storm Ready stories

Hi Paul,

Great job on the Storm Ready stories and in general on your coverage of the weather. I have a question about tornado preparedness: I live in a house with a partially excavated basement (like a split level where in the basement up to my chest is underground but about my chest is above ground (that's where the basement windows are). The question is, does this depth offers enough protection from a tornado, or should I be thinking of excavating a deeper refuge?

Thanks and keep up the great job you and MPR folks do,

Vicente.

Hi Vicente:

Thanks for the nice words.

"Half" below ground is better than nothing. I've seen many splits like you're referring to that have a cubby for storage under the last stairs going down to the lowest level. If your home has this, and it's below grade that sounds like the place to be.

You can always get more protection from getting lower, but the reality is if you can get below grade, and put walls between you and the outside walls you're way better off.

Hope this helps!

Here's a link to our MPR/KARE11 safety tips.

Paul Huttner

Make it a great Thursday!

PH

Comment on this post

2011's last 90? Cooler weekend; T.S. Lee: 20" in New Orleans?

Posted at 4:39 PM on September 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

94 degree high in the Twin Cites Thursday

(Hottest day, and 1st 90 degree day since July 31st.)

15 days at or above 90 degrees in 2011 at MSP

13 days on average at or above 90 at MSP annually

If you like it hot, I hope you enjoyed what was likely the hottest day of the rest of 2011 Thursday!

It may also have been the last time the mercury hits 90 in the Twin Cities this year.

September averages 1 day of 90 degree heat each year in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels swamped Minnesota with the brief heat wave of September 1st 2011.

90 degree heat surges north ahead of low pressure Thursday.

Dew points in the 70s pool opver Minnesota Thursday.

Here are some selected readings at 3pm Thursday.

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER SUNNY 88 72 58 S10 29.79F HX 94
RED WING MOSUNNY 91 72 52 S9 29.72F HX 98
STANTON SUNNY 90 71 52 SE9 29.72F HX 96
DODGE CENTER SUNNY 88 72 58 S8 29.77F HX 94
WINONA SUNNY 93 70 46 CALM 29.78S HX 99
PRESTON SUNNY 94 70 46 SW7 29.82R HX 100

Cool Front Friday:

You'll notice falling temps and humidity levels Friday, as cool front delivers a much more comfortable air mass courtesy of Canada.

The front will trigger a few scattered storms as it moves south. There is a (very) slight risk of a severe storm, but overall dynamics are weak.

Tropical trouble brewing: T.S. Lee may dump heavy rain on Gulf Coast.

NHC gives the growing disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Lee in the next 48 hours.

"A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE."

Forecast models are moving "Lee" slowly toward the north.

The slow movement means the central Gulf Coast will likely get hammered with torrential rainfall over the next few days. Southern Louisiana, including New Orleans, and Mississippi could pick up 10" to 20" rain totals.

Meanwhile Katia continues to churn westward in the Atlantic. The latest trends in steering currents keep Katia moving more west than north. NHC has adjusted the forecast track westward to reflect the left leaning trend in guidance.

That will bring Katia dangerously close to the Carolina coast late next week. Most of the models stil insist on then recurving Katia and accelerating the storm to the north, east of the U.S. mainland.

But if the track stays any farther west Katia could become a threat to the eastern USA.

Stay tuned!

PH

Thursday heat spike! 10th warmest summer? Tropical trouble?

Posted at 7:36 AM on September 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

Today is the first day of meteorological fall, but it will feel like the middle of July!

Altocumulus at sunrise Thursday portends a hot day ahead.

A brief but intense heat surge will push temps into the 90s today and send dew points well into the tropical 70s.

With Amazon Jungle heat and humidity and a cold front approaching, scattered T-Storms will roam through central and northern Minnesota. I can't rule out a stray storm reaching as far south as the metro today, but the best chances will be from Willmar & St. Cloud through Brainerd and the Iron Range to Ely.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

The heat won't last; a cool front will slide through early Friday and push temps back close to normal with high in the upper 70s.

There is a slight risk for severe storms as the front pushes through Thursday night into early Friday.

Summer 2011: 10th warmest on record?

Another meteorological summer is in the books in Minnesota, and it appears we've just sweated through another "top 10 weather event. If my math is correct (we'll wait for the climate gurus to confirm) summer 2011 ties for the 10th warmest summer on record at MSP Airport.

My numbers show an average temperature this summer (June, July & August) of 74.0 degrees. If that's right, that would tie for the 10th warmest summer on record.

Last summer was the 5th warmest on record at 74.2 degrees. The hottest summer ever? 1988 when we sweated through 44 days at or above 90 degrees and complied an average summer temp of 75.5 degrees.

Top Ten Warmest Summers in the Twin Cities
----------------------------------------
Rank Ave Temp Year

1 75.5 1988
2 75.2 1933
3 74.3 1949
74.3 2006 tie
5 74.2 1936
74.2 1894/2010 tie
9 74.1 1955
74.1 1921 tie
74.1 1937 tie
10 74.0 1983
74.0 2005/2011*? tie

Tropical Storm Lee: Threat to New Orleans?

While we're wathicng Katia, tropical trouble may be sneaking up on us in the Gulf of Mexico.

A persistent area of cloud cover "Invest 93" shows signs of developing into a Tropical Storm Lee in the coming days.

The analysis from NHC Thursday morning:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

Where will "Lee" go?

If Lee forms and moves slowly as expected, he could dump heavy rains of 10" to 20" along the Gulf coast in the next week. Given the weak steering currents in the Gulf, Lee could go anywhere.

Take a look at the crazy tracks from the forecast models!

A few of the models suggest hurricane intensity for Lee.

Stay tuned!

PH

Erratic Tropical Storm Don; Deadly USA heat wave persists

Posted at 8:41 AM on July 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

So you wanna be a weather forecaster? Even better, a hurricane forecaster?

Tropical storm Don is confounding forecasters at the National Hurricane Center a bit today.

"Don" flares in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning.

The storm has been erratic in developing, and Don's future intensity and impacts seem far from certain today. Check out some of the language from the NHC's technical forecast discussion on Don.

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE
REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM
VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
SLOW DECLINE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON
MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND
DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. GIVEN THE REDUCED
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9... WITH OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTING THE SMALL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY."

Hurricane forecasting is a tough business, and one of the more difficult specialized areas of meteorology. Weak tropical steering currents, changing ocean temperatures and slight variations in wind shear can mean rapidly fluctuating hurricane intensity.

Hurricane "spaghetti chart" show most models tracking Don toward south Texas.

The models do fairly well with tropical cyclone tracks, but intensity forecasts are much tougher, and less reliable. Let's see what Don has in store in the next 24 hours as it approaches the Texas coast.

Heat Wave 2011: Deadly and persistent

Minnesota has been on the northern edge of the massive heat wave of 2011. We've had our share of hot weather, but nothing compared to places like Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas.

12 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro in 2011

17 days at or above 100 degrees in Topeka, Kansas in 2011!

-The 10 consecutive days of temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees in Topeka this year is tied for Topeka's 7th longest streak of 100 degree temperatures.

Even though we're running a full +5.4 degrees warmer than average in July in the metro, you can see our July heat is almost bearable when compared with the Kansas (and USA) heat wave of 2011.

PH

Were dew point & heat index records "agriculturally induced?"

Posted at 4:35 PM on July 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Record

It's a good thing the climate gurus at the MN State Climate Office are getting back to work soon. They have a lot of work to catch up on!

A slew of new weather records will need to be verified in the coming days and weeks.

Among them will be the apparent all time highest dew point and heat index on record Minnesota.

The dew point sensor at Moorhead spiked to 88 degrees at 7pm Tuesday evening. That's the highest dew point ever recorded in Minnesota. (Previous record was/is 86 degrees)

When you combine the air temperature of 93 at that hour, the heat index calculates out to a Persian Gulf level of 130 degrees! That would also be the highest heat index ever recorded in Minnesota. (Previously 124 degrees at Moorhead in 1966)

An interesting post from the Grand Forks NWS raises questions about whether the data will stand. It turns out the Moorhead AWOS station is surrounded by soybean & sugar beet fields. It's also over a bed of clover, and had standing water from heavy rainfall under/near the sensor.

From Grand Forks NWS:

Hottest Place On Earth?

"Was Moorhead Minnesota one of the Hottest Places on Earth Tuesday afternoon?

Below is a table comparing the Fargo ASOS with the Moorhead AWOS during the hours of Noon through Midnight, Tuesday July 19 2011. During the period when the Moorhead AWOS was reporting an 88 degree dew-point, the Fargo ASOS was 5 to 9 degrees lower."

NWS comparison of readings in Fargo and Moorhead Tuesday. (Click to enlarge!)

Huttner's take on the data: (For what it's worth!)

My take on the facts and data here puts me in the camp that would uphold Tuesday's records.

Here's why:

-If row crops are in fact contributing to higher dew points as has been documented in the past, then most or all observing stations in Minnesota had higher "agriculturally modified" dew points Tuesday. (And on most summer days)

If a farmer had standing rainwater in his fields Tuesday it would have felt the same way at that location...even if there was no weather sensor there to detect the readings. Simply put, those were the actual "air mass" properties at that location.

Here's an email on the subject of crop aided dew point readings from Pete Boulay at MN State Climate Office sent last August:

"Hello all,

State Climatology Office
DNR - Division of Ecological and Water Resources"

Count me as one who believes the records should stand from Tuesday!

"Manhole Geyser" in Montreal:

Check out this incredible video after flooding rains in Montreal!

Second Phoenix Dust Storm this month:

Check out the second major dust storm in Phoenix this month!

I have witnessed and broadcast many "dust storm warnings" during 9 years in Arizona. These giant walls of dust are caused by the gust fronts from thunderstorms. The soil between Phoenix and Tucson is so loose and fine that dust is easily picked up and whisked airborne.

Most of these "Haboobs" flow from southeast to northwest into the Phoneix area on the prevailling "monsoon thunderstorm" winds.

And this...

PH

"Hottest" most humid MN day ever Tuesday! Severe risk today

Posted at 9:02 AM on July 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

And the weather hits just keep on comin'!

Call this one a "Humistorm" or "Torrid Tuesday."

The "Extreme Heat Wave of 2011" set numerous all time heat index & humidity records in Minnesota Tuesday.

3 consecutive days with 80 degree dew points at MSP Airport. (First time that has ever happened according to UM climate guru Dr. Mark Seeley)

82 degree dew point new all time record high dew point at MSP Airport. (May have been as high as 84 degrees in between hours!)

119 degree heat index (3:53pm) at MSP Airport ties all time record heat index at MSP!

88 degree dew point at Moorhead last night between 6pm and 8pm sets new all time record highest dew point reading in Minnesota! (Previous record was 86 degrees)

134 degree heat index reading at Moorhead sets new all time highest heat index reading for Minnesota! (Previous record was 124 degrees at Moorhead in 1966)

More records from Twin Cities NWS:

Temperature and Moisture Extremes During This Week's Heat Wave

The heat wave which has gripped the upper midwest since Sunday has broken records for temperature and dew point, and possibly even heat indices across the region.
In the Twin Cities:

-The record high minimum temperature was tied on July 17th, with a low temperature of 79 degrees. The record was previously set in 1936 and 1942.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

$$
MARGRAF

Uncharted Territory:

The torrid numbers in Minnesota Tuesday are simply unprecedented and astounding.

You can believe that many weather experts in Minnesota would have never imagined we'd smash heat and humidity records by such magnitude. The new (still unofficial) heat index record of 134 degrees at Moorhead Tuesday blew the previous record out of the water by a full 10 degrees!

With a heat index of 134 degrees, Moorhead was literally the hottest place on the planet Tuesday!

This truly was a "humidity storm" for Minnesota of epic proportions. Never before have Minnesotans felt such oppressive combined heat and humidity levels. While temperatures did not even come close to the state record of 114 degrees, dew point and heat index values were off the charts.

Why so hot & humid?

There's a simple explanation for why we're enduring record setting heat & humidity levels in Minnesota this week, and potentially more complicated reasons.

A huge intense ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is acting like a "heat pump." Under the ridge the air is sinking and compressing, creating the heat wave. This is normal in a Midwest summer.

The more complicated factors may include the injection of additional low level moisture from the ocean of corn that lies in Iowa and southern Minnesota. Corn is an efficient "evapotranspirator." Studies have shown that massive corn fields can raise dew points in the environment as the corn "sweats" on hot summer days.

Take an already tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and slide it over an ocean of corn in Iowa and Minnesota and you are truly modifying the air mass to become even more tropical. Call it an "uber-tropical" or "agriculturally modified" air mass.

Cool Front: Relief just 12 to 18 hours away!

A cool front cutting through Minnesota today will bring relief, but not before one more "excessively hot" day.

Highs will approach of exceed 100 in southern Minnesota today, including the Twin Cities metro. As drier air pushes in ahead of the front, dew points may actually fall into the lower 70s and 60s. The drier air will heat more efficiently, and as a result air temperatures may actually be hotter than Tuesday, even as heat index values are lower in some cases.

Either way you slice it, it's still going to be stinking hot today with temps & heat index values over 100 degrees until the front arrives.

More records today?

Details from Twin Cities NWS...

Another hot day is in store for the region today. High temperatures will be approaching record levels today, and the highest low temperature record in the Twin Cities is in jeopardy for July 20th. Here are the record highs and record highest minimum temperatures for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, and Eau Claire:

Twin Cities:

Record High: 102 set in 1901
Record Highest Minimum: 76 set in 1901, 1935, and 1940 (low temperature so far today has been 83 degrees)
St. Cloud:

Record High: 105 set in 1901
Record Highest Minimum: 80 set in 1901 (low temperature so far today has been 78 degrees, so this record is safe)
Eau Claire:

Record High 102 set in 1932
Record Highest Minimum: 81 set in 1932 (low temperature so far today has been 72 degrees, so this record is safe)

Severe risk today:

As the cool front slices into the hot unstable air mass, a line of severe storms may expand from north to south.

SPC has most of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather today.

Storms will be common in northern Minnesota early, and may fire south into the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin by later afternoon and evening. High wind and hail appear to be the primary threats, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.

Keep an eye on the sky today for storms and possible warnings!

PH

Comment on this post

Crazy record! Highest dew point ever at MSP Airport (82!)

Posted at 4:25 PM on July 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (10 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

This is getting silly.

The dew point reached 82 degrees at MSP Airport at 3 and 4pm this afternoon at MSP.

This is the highest dew point ever recorded at MSP Airport.

The observed heat index of 119 at 4pm appears to tie the highest heat index ever recorded in the Twin Cities. The previous record dates back to 1966.

From NWS:

NOUS43 KMPX 192106
PNSMPX
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
201000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...UNOFFICIAL DEW POINT RECORD SET IN THE TWIN CITIES TODAY...

THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE AT THE MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES ON THE 3 PM AND 4 PM OBSERVATION. THIS IS THE
HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REPORTED ON AN HOURLY OBSERVATION AT
THE MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE HOURLY DEW POINT
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1945.

THE PREVIOUS HOURLY DEW POINT RECORD WAS 81 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
ON JULY 30TH 1999. A DEW POINT OF 81 DEGREES WAS ALSO REPORTED AT
THE AIRPORT ON SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND EARLIER TODAY /JULY 17-19/.

THE MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE IS THE OFFICIAL SOURCE OF
DEW POINT RECORDS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS NEW RECORD WILL BE
CONSIDERED UNOFFICIAL UNTIL IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE STAFF AT THE
STATE CLIMATE OFFICE.

$$
MARGRAF

From Mark Seeley:

"Hi Paul and Tom,

Mark"

With a new all time dew point record and 3 consecutive days of 80 degree dew points, this is now clearly the most humid air mass ever in the Twin Cities and Minnesota.

And the Minnesota weather hits just keep on comin'!

PH

Update 1:10pm:

The morning and midday storms are fading this afternoon after dumping hail & heavy rain on the northern & eastern metro.

St. Paul streets running with water today. (MPR photo by Sam Choo)

Expect temperatures to resume the climb into the 90s today.

Here are the storm reports from today's action from Twin Cities NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE RONNEBY 45.71N 93.82W
07/19/2011 BENTON MN AMATEUR RADIO

BRANCHES AND LIMBS UP TO 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED IN
OAK PARK.

1005 AM TSTM WND DMG MILACA 45.76N 93.65W
07/19/2011 MILLE LACS MN PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES DOWN...POWER OUT.

1013 AM TSTM WND GST PRINCETON 45.57N 93.59W
07/19/2011 M56.00 MPH MILLE LACS MN AWOS

MEASURED AT PRINCETON AIRPORT.

1019 AM TSTM WND GST PRINCETON 45.57N 93.59W
07/19/2011 M58.00 MPH MILLE LACS MN AWOS

MEASURED AT AIRPORT

1020 AM TSTM WND DMG ZIMMERMAN 45.44N 93.59W
07/19/2011 SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWENTY FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREES UPROOTED. OCCURRED NEAR
205TH ST. AND COUNTY ROAD 13.

1020 AM TSTM WND DMG ZIMMERMAN 45.44N 93.59W
07/19/2011 SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWENTY FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREES TOPPLED. SOME SNAPPED IN
TWO.

1020 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSE GLENDORADO 45.54N 93.75W
07/19/2011 M47.00 MPH SHERBURNE MN MESONET

MEASURED BY RAWS AT SHERBURN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE

1020 AM TSTM WND DMG ZIMMERMAN 45.44N 93.59W
07/19/2011 SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES SEVERED. OCCURRED NEAR 19
JARVIS ST. TIME ESTIMATED.

1057 AM TSTM WND GST RAMSEY 45.26N 93.45W
07/19/2011 M56.00 MPH ANOKA MN MESONET

MEASURED AT PACT CHARTER SCHOOL

1102 AM FUNNEL CLOUD MAPLE GROVE 45.11N 93.46W
07/19/2011 HENNEPIN MN PUBLIC

OCCURRED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATES
694 AND 494.

1103 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NW ANOKA 45.23N 93.42W
07/19/2011 M59.00 MPH ANOKA MN MESONET

MEASURED AT APRSNET SITE.

1115 AM HAIL BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
07/19/2011 M0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TIME ESTIMATED.

1125 AM HEAVY RAIN BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
07/19/2011 E0.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER UP TO CURB DEEP ON STREETS IN TOWN.

1133 AM HAIL NEW BRIGHTON 45.07N 93.20W
07/19/2011 M0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATES 694 AND 35W.

1133 AM HAIL BROOKLYN CENTER 45.07N 93.32W
07/19/2011 M0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1133 AM HAIL 2 WNW ROSEVILLE 45.03N 93.19W
07/19/2011 E1.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1134 AM HAIL NEW BRIGHTON 45.07N 93.20W
07/19/2011 M1.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR 502 7TH ST.

1135 AM HAIL NEW BRIGHTON 45.07N 93.20W
07/19/2011 M1.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR COUNTY ROAD E2 AND 35W.

1140 AM FLASH FLOOD SPRING LAKE PARK 45.12N 93.25W
07/19/2011 ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR MIDDLETON ROAD. NEARBY ROAD UNDERWATER.

1144 AM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
07/19/2011 E0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE COMO

1147 AM HAIL ROSEVILLE 45.02N 93.15W
07/19/2011 M1.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR SNELLING AND HIGHWAY 46 AT THE ROSEDALE
MALL.

1155 AM HAIL ROSEVILLE 45.02N 93.15W
07/19/2011 M1.25 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ROSEVILLE 45.02N 93.15W
07/19/2011 E0.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FAIRVIEW AVE UNDERPASS FLOODED AT HIGHWAY 36
INTERSECTION. WATER UP TO 1 1/2 FEET DEEP. CAR STALLED.

1206 PM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
07/19/2011 M1.25 INCH RAMSEY MN BROADCAST MEDIA

1207 PM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
07/19/2011 M1.00 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1210 PM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
07/19/2011 M0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1218 PM HAIL MENDOTA HEIGHTS 44.88N 93.14W
07/19/2011 M0.75 INCH DAKOTA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

OCCURRED NEAR PILOT ROAD AND I494.

1227 PM HAIL MENDOTA HEIGHTS 44.88N 93.14W
07/19/2011 M1.00 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1228 PM HAIL WEST ST PAUL 44.90N 93.09W
07/19/2011 E0.75 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED NEAR 908 LIVINGSTON AVE.

Storms now moving through metro from north to south over the next two hours.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1036 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RAMSEY...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMBRIDGE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...
ST PAUL...
RAMSEY...
CEDAR...
EAST BETHEL...
DAYTON...
ANDOVER...
ANOKA...
CHAMPLIN...
HAM LAKE...
COON RAPIDS...
OSSEO...
OAK PARK...
BROOKLYN PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...WHICH CAN UPROOT
TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE OVERTURNED. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND WINDOWS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

MPX: Princeton [Mille Lacs Co, MN] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M58 MPH at 10:19 AM CDT -- measured at airport

MPX: 3 Ne Ronneby [Benton Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:30 AM CDT -- branches and limbs up to 10 inches in diameter downed in oak park.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1009 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1008 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ZIMMERMAN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF
PRINCETON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BIG LAKE...
ELK RIVER...
ST FRANCIS...
RAMSEY...
CEDAR...
ANDOVER...
HAM LAKE...
EAST BETHEL...
CENTERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Update 10am:

Radar indicating strongest storms near Milaca heading southeast toward Princeton. Possible Tornado Vortex Signature (TVS) on radar. Damaging winds and possible tornado with this storm!

PH

Update 9:15 am:

SPC has issued a severe T-Storm Watch until 3pm including the Twin Cities metro area and much of western Wisconsin.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 910 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS DEVELOPED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG ITS SRN FLANK. THE ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE BASED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.


...THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Moderate

***

The heat wave of 2011 rolls on, and the hottest air may be yet to come by Wednesday.

The excessive heat warning continues.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES...AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THROUGH 9 PM ON WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES
ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...
NEIGHBORS...AND PETS.

Storm chances today. There is a slight risk for severe storms today, with the best chances for a severe storm with high winds, heavy rain & hail just north & east of the Twin Cities.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Some numbers on our heat wave so far:

81 degrees - tied the all time record dew point value for the Twin Cities Sunday at 9pm (pending official confirmation)

6 days at or above 90 degrees at MSP Airport this month

10 days at or above 90 degrees so far in 2011

13 days at or above 90 degrees in an "average" year at MSP Airport.

50+ number of Twins fans treated for heat related symptoms Monday at Target Filed

23 states under heat advisories today

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
203 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A NEW RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM /OR WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE/ FOR THE TWIN CITIES OF MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL MN WAS SET YESTERDAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 80 DEGREES YESTERDAY JULY 18 2011.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD WARM LOW OF 79 DEGREES SET IN 1986.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
205 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A TIE FOR THE RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM /OR WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN WAS TIED YESTERDAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT EAU CLAIRE WAS 76 DEGREES YESTERDAY
JULY 18 2011.

THIS TIES FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE WARMEST LOW TEMP FOR THE DATE OF
JULY 18TH.

THE ORIGINAL WARM LOW OF 76 WAS SET IN 1942.

The core of the "thermal ridge" will pass directly over Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. Temps could reach or exceed 100 degrees late Wednesday in southern Minnesota. Heat index values will again push into the 110 degree range.

Relief in sight!

A weak cool front will slide through Minnesota Thursday. The front should drop temps about 10 degrees, and may push dew points form the upper 70s to the upper 50s by late Thursday!

Temperatures may fall into the mid 80s by Thursday.

Dew points in the upper 50s?

If the dew points fall into the 50s, you'll really notice a big drop in humidity. There will literally be about half as much water in the air over Minnesota s we have today.

Hang in there, some relief is 48 hours away!

PH

Comment on this post

Uncharted Heat Index values

Posted at 7:53 AM on July 18, 2011 by Craig Edwards (11 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Crops, Heat, Microclimates, dew point

Austin Schoen (left), Mark Schauer (center) and Tanner Schauer cool off on the Bumper Boats ride at Lilli Putt in Coon Rapids, Minn., on July 18, 2011. (MPR Photo/Nikki Tundel)

While we are calling this sweltering, oppressive atmosphere a Heat Wave, it equally worthy of being called a High Dew Point Warning. Yesterday afternoon and evening dew points, a very good indicator of the moisture in the atmosphere, were in the lower 80s over a large swath of southern Minnesota. It is very rare to observe sustained high dew points over a broad area this far north.

Dew point measurement can me impacted by the microclimate of the sensors location. We see dew points at their highest in southern Minnesota from mid July through about mid August. A number of us in the weather business believe that these seasonally high dew points are the results of the evapo-transpiration of the maturing corn corps across Iowa and southern Minnesota. Moisture is released back into the low levels of the atmosphere and we feel its affects.

A slight drop in dew points is seen for today. We may well see a few degrees of additional heat on the thermometer. That translates to Heat Index values of 105 to 115, in the shade, during the middle of the day. This is excessively sweltering when you add into the equation direct sunlight. Stay out of the sun today if you can. Unless you are standing in the lake.

Dogs and cats instinctly slow down in this weather. If your dog needs to have a walk, make it a quick trip early in the morning or in the evening. Provide plenty of water for pet during this sultry period.

Follow the advice from health officials with regard to your well being. Apply the number one rule; slow down. Dress in light colors with a brimmed hat.

Heat spell breaks a bit towards the end of the week. Just so you know; the climate records document the next seven to ten days as the warmest period during the calendar year.

The sensible temperature is about fifteen degrees warmer in the direct sunshine.

Think cool thoughts today.
CE

Comment on this post

Heat continues this week

Posted at 5:29 AM on July 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

The huge high pressure ridge which is pumping hot air into Minnesota will stay locked in place this week.

The dew point Sunday reached an Amazon Jungle level 81 degrees at 9pm CDT. Official confirmation will have to wait for MN State Climate staff to return to work, but I believe this ties the all time highest dew point record for the Twin Cities!

Expect more highs in the 90s, and with tropically oppressive dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees heat index values will again soar into the 110 to 115 degree range.

Stay cool!

PH

Comment on this post

Weekend heat kicks in; Friday "super soaker" recap

Posted at 11:00 PM on July 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

It's here!

Heat advisories and warnings kick in this weekend, as temperatures soar through the 90s.

Table shows maximum daily forecast heat index and probabilities.

Heat index could surge well over 100 Sunday & Monday.

HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL
346 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY
TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

* HEAT INDEX...AROUND 110 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

Friday Super Soaker:

The Huttner Weather Lab picked up an astounding 3.05" rain blast Friday. Many locatins recorded over 2" to 4", with a whopping 6.75" at Osakis in west central Minnesota!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM HEAVY RAIN OSAKIS 45.87N 95.15W
07/15/2011 M6.75 INCH DOUGLAS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERRIF CALLED TWO OF HIS DEPUTIES REPORT 6.75 INCHES OF
RAIN.

Stay cool this weekend!

PH

Comment on this post

A solid week of 90-degree heat? Summer's hottest air ahead.

Posted at 5:30 PM on July 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

Get ready for some persistent intense heat. The hottest air of the summer is on the way over the next week.

A large hot high pressure dome will expand over Minnesota and the Midwest this weekend. All indications are the pattern will persist right through next week.

The Twin Cities and much of Minnesota could see at least 7 consecutive days with daily high temperatures at or above 90 degrees starting Saturday. High temperatures will likely soar above 90 degrees in much of Minnesota from Saturday through next Friday. Heat index values could soar into the 100 range!

There are signs a cool front may bring some temporary relief by next weekend.

The chart below tracks forecast temperatures at MSP Airport over the next 7 days from various models.

Sunday may be the hottest day, when highs could push 100 in much of southern Minnesota.

While 7 days is a long stretch of 90 degree temps, it would not be a record breaker.

Hot nights too!

One feature of the coming heat wave will be hot overnight temperatures. For several consecutive nights temperatures may not drop below 75 degrees in the metro...and there could be a few nights with overnight "low" temperatures near 80 degrees!

One aspect of the record Chicago heat wave in 1995 that killed over 700 people was that nighttime temps did not dip below 80 in much of the city for days. It was so hot at night that people's bodies just did not have the chance to cool off, and many died in apartments without air conditioning.

Another factor was the urban heat island effect. Days of sun and temps near 100 baked buildings (many red brick apartments) to well over 125 degrees. If you didn't have A/C, you just had now way of cooling off. The red brick "reraditiated" heat at night, and temperatures in the city could not fall.

I covered the heat wave in 1995 in Chicago as a meteorologist for WGN TV.

WGN Morning News Team in the mid-'90s. (Gotta love that 'stache!)

It was a lesson in establishing "cooling centers" where people who did not have A/C could gather to cool off, and for checking on the elderly and others who could not care for themselves.

In the heat waves of the 1930's my parents recall sleeping with hundreds of others by Lake Calhoun and other Minneapolis lakes to cool off at night in the pre A/C days.

People sleeping outside near Minneapolis lakes in the heat waves of the 1930's.

Stay cool when the heat builds this weekend!

PH

Rainy Thursday; Scattered Friday; Heat kicks in Saturday

Posted at 8:30 AM on July 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Rainfall

Rain is moving across much of Minnesota as expected today. The good news is the potential for flooding; multi inch rain totals appears lower than yesterday. The "bad" news is, it's still going to rain most everywhere today, but the rain is timely and needed in some areas.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Surface chart shows rain shield moving through Minnesota Thursday.

Most of the rain has been "garden variety" so far, but there have been a few bands of heavier rainfall. Doppler storm total rainfall and surface reports indicate 1" to 2" bands from near Fergus Falls through Wadena, Brainerd, to Cloquet.

Patches of heavy rain have also fallen near Montevideo (1.5") and in southwest Minnesota.

In the metro rain will favor the morning and midday hours, and a general .50" is likely with some isolated 1" totals likely today.

Scattered showers linger Friday:

The chance for scattered showers and T-Storms will linger through Friday and into early Saturday. As hot high pressure builds in overhead Saturday, an atmospheric "cap" should put the lid on T-Storms for a few days.

SPC maintains a slight risk for severe storms Friday, but does not sound overly concerned about intensity and coverage.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

ONE OR TWO MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS
DAKOTAS/MN...MOVING GENERALLY EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL.
AS LLJ WEAKENS THROUGHOUT MORNING...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DO LIKEWISE. REJUVENATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ISPOSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON ALONG NEARBY SECTIONS OF FRONTAL ZONE AND SWWD PAST SFC LOW...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND
CLUSTERS.

Saturday: Heat kicks in:

The real headline of this forecast period continues to be the heat wave setting up for the rest of July.

Model trends continue to indicate a string of days in the mid to upper 90s next week, with high dew points in the 70s pushing heat index values into the 100 range.

Keep the umbrella handy today!

PH

Rain Today: Weekend heat; Shutdown & climate data

Posted at 7:05 AM on July 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Flooding, Heat, Rainfall

The next weather system is pushing rain into Minnesota Thursday morning. Some numbers:

.95" NAM model rainfall output for MSP Airport next 60 hours

3"- 4" NAM rainfall output for areas near Morris, Alexandria & St. Cloud to Hinckley

2" possible rainfall totals favoring north metro next 48 hours

Finding the "sweet spot"

This is where weather forecasting gets dicey. Specifically, flash flood forecasting.

As hotter, wetter air pushes north over the next 48 hours, the precise location of surface warm frontal positions and upper air low tracks take on added meaning. If the warm front is overhead, and the upper low passes over the top of you...get an ark! You could get 3" to 4" of rain.

If you're 50-75 miles either side....maybe an inch of rain? No big deal.

The latest model trends suggest the "sweet spot" for heavy rainfall may lay out across central Minnesota. A line from Morris through Alexandria, St. Cloud to Hinckley seems like the favored area to pick up a multi inch deluge.

NAM model paints heaviest rain bands between the metro and Duluth.

Duluth and the Twin Cities lie on either side...maybe an inch of rain or more? Again, this is if things pan out that way. The heavy rain area could easily shift north or south.

Either way, be ready for showers & T-Storms moving into western MN tonight and spreading into eastern MN (including Duluth & the metro) by Thursday morning.

Some of the rain will be heavy. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, with a lower chance for hail and damaging winds.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest storm total rainfall radar estimates

Up Next: Weekend heat wave

As the hot dome of air pushes north this weekend, temperatures will soar. We'll see more heat advisories and extreme heat warnings in Minnesota.

Check out some of the forecast heat index values starting Sunday!

State of Minnesota shutdown affects MN climate info users:

"Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you got 'til it's gone."

That's how this forecaster and other local "mets" must feel about the shutdown of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group website. It's a royal pain for us as forecasters not to have the excellent data, but the bigger perspective is that there are several dedicated climate professionals (and thousands of other dedicated state employees) out of work through no fault of their own!

We are so fortunate to have this amazing group of dedicated climate specialists in Minnesota. I know I'm missing somebody but the excellent work of dedicated professionals like Jim Zandlo,Greg Spoden, Pete Boulay, and Dr. Mark Seeley bring our rich Minnesota climate history to life. It is extremely valuable to have a basis for comparison to current weather patterns and records like the one provided by the MN Climate Working Group web site.

The site is currently unavailable due to the government shutdown.

I asked my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley about this today. His reply below.

Hi Paul,

Mark

There are some other sources available, but none as comprehensive as the Minnesota Climatology Working Group site.

I sure hope it comes back soon!

PH

Comment on this post

37 in Hibbing! Flood Watch Tonight: Record heat by Sunday?

Posted at 8:55 AM on July 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Heat

Did we just sleep through August and wake up in September?

A decidedly fall like air mass slipped into Minnesota early Wednesday morning. Temperatures plunged to near frosty levels in northeast Minnesota with 37 degrees in Hibbing and Embarrass!

REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

: MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

:ASOS SITES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 72 / 49 / 0.00
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 72 / 40 / 0.00
BRD : BRAINERD : 73 / 51 / 0.00
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M
HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 70 / 37 / 0.00


:......NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.......
:
EMBM5: EMBARRASS..............: DH0600/ 75 / 37 / 0.00
KABM5: KABETOGAMA.............: DH0700/ 69 / 42 / 0.00
LEIM5: ORR 3E.................: DH0600/ 67 / 38 / 0.00

: MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

DLH : DULUTH MN : 72 / 49 / 0.00
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 72 / 40 / 0.00
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 78 / 61 / 0.00
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 72 / 56 / 0.04
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 76 / 55 / 0.00
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 75 / 56 / 0.00
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M
HIB : HIBBING MN : 70 / 37 / 0.00
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 77 / 59 / 0.01

The Twin Cities observed morning minimum temps of 61 degrees was almost balmy by comparison.

Perfect 10 Wednesday?

Wednesday may be the Chamber of Commerce weather special for Minnesota. As the cool & comfy high pressure ridge slides east, plenty of sunshine and an east wind will mean a very pleasant day for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Next System: MCS & heavy rain tonight?

A thunderstorm complex in South Dakota Wednesday morning will move slowly east into western Minnesota lat tonight. The system should expand and could intensify right over (where else?) Minnesota in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Flood watches are posted for much of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH IS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MORA AND RUSH
CITY...SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES...AND MANKATO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD...ONE AND ONE HALF...TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL MAKE MANY LOCAL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING IF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS HIGH CAN BE REALIZED.

Models paint two different scenarios for location of the heaviest rains. The first trends put the heavy storms from Redwood Falls to Mankato and the Twin Cities. More recent runs have played it further north, from Fargo to Brainerd, Alexandria and St. Cloud.

There is the potential for heavy (and possibly flooding) rains under the heaviest cells. The difference in location could mean the difference between more general .50" rainfall totals and 2" to 3" totals.

NAM model pains heavy 2" to 4" rainfall totals in central MN!

Here's an excerpt from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion early Wednesday morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

".DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME AREAS INTO FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY THE HEAT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
KEEP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. 850 MB DEW POINTS SURGE TO 12 TO 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THICKNESS RIDGE WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REGENERATE AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD PLACED THE FOCUS SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST MODEL PLACES THE FOCUS WEST AND
NORTH...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH."

The flood watch goes into effect late tonight. In the metro, it looks like the heaviest rainfall may occur early Thursday morning. It could be a wet rush hour in the Twin Cities Thursday!

Weekend Heat Wave: Record highs & heat index of 100 to 115?

A massive sub-Tropical high pressure ridge will expand and build north into Minnesota this weekend.

GFS model 500 millibar upper air chart shows massive high pressure "heat dome" building into Minnesota by Sunday.

The result will be a barbaric heat wave. Highs may approach 100 degrees Sunday & Monday, and the heat index may reach 110 to 115 in some areas.

Heat index may approcah 115!

This is going to be serious heat folks. If we hit 100 again this year, it will be the first time MSP Airport has recorded two 100 degree days in 23 years! Anyone remember the sizzling summer of 1988? We had 44 days at or above 90 that summer!

By the end of July this year we could be over 20 days of 90 degree heat in the metro and counting. The annual average is 13 days.

Prolonged heat wave may last two weeks!

The upper air charts show a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central USA through the rest of July. The intensity of the heat may wane, but it looks like temperatures at or above 90 degrees may occur through July.

"Hot nights" the real killer?

I remember covering the Chicago Heat Wave in 1995. Over 700 people died in that brutal heat wave. In the aftermath, local health and NWS officials cited the extremely hot overnight temperatures as a major factor in heat related deaths. Temperatures stayed above 80 degrees for several nights. That kind of heat doesn't give our bodies a chance to cool off at night. Heat related illness can be cumulative, so get inside a cool place and get some rest in air conditioning if at all possible in the coming heat wave.

In times like this, Air conditioning is a real life saver, not simply a convenience!

PH

48 hours of free A/C: Prolonged heat wave starts this weekend

Posted at 8:45 AM on July 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

Enjoy the quiet!

You won't hear the hum from buzzing air conditioners through Thursday. But get ready to see a jump in your A/C bill later this month.

Free A/C for now & showery morning south:

An east-west band of showers is sliding through southern Minnesota Tuesday morning. The area should skirt mainly south of the metro, with rain showers from Mankato to Rochester. The upper air disturbance triggering the showers will slide east of Minnesota late today, and sunshine will increase in the metro and southern Minnesota this afternoon.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Prolonged heat wave builds this weekend!

After our reluctant spring, it's starting to look like the summer of 2011 will be remembered as hot & steamy. Some numbers so far.

8 days at or above 90 degrees so far

13 days of 90 degree weather is average for MSP

20+ days at or above 90 by the end of July?

Call it "crazy hot." This is going to be a hot one folks.

A massive ridge of high pressure will expand in the upper atmosphere this weekend. The pattern will pump road buckling heat into Minnesota starting on Friday and Saturday, peaking by Sunday and Monday.

GFS Upper Air Prog: "Heat pump" high pressure expands over Minnesota by Sunday.

Temperatures may approach 100 in the metro and southern Minnesota by Sunday, with heat index values (the "feels like" temperature) over 110 degrees.

Heat index values may pussh 110 this by Sunday!

Prolonged heat:

The GFS model is hinting that the 90+ degree heat wave could last at least 2 weeks, basically for the rest of July. The prolonged heat wave could push the number of 90 degree days in the metro and much of Minnesota from the current total of 8, to over 20 by month's end.

The North Shore and cool breezes off Lake Superior will be looking awfully tempting by next week!

Heat helps crops, so far:

The recent heat is helping crops in Minnesota. July is running about 7 degrees above average so far. According to the latest crop report, the average height of corn in Minnesota increased from 25 inches to 39 inches last week. That's 14 inches in 7 days...or about 2" per day! No wonder they say you can "hear the corn grow."

The intense and prolonged heat wave to the south may begin to affect corn crops in Iowa and other Midwest states. It will be interesting to see where we are at in about 2 weeks, and whether markets will respond to a growing heat wave and potentially dry weather scenario in the Midwest through the end of July.

PH

Heat warning; Record 82 degree dew point at Hallock!

Posted at 6:04 PM on June 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Weekend

Call it "crazy heat."

This is Minnesota and not Arizona, right?

Heat index values pushed over 110 degrees in Hallock in the far northwest corner of Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

At 3pm & 4pm Hallock recorded an Amazon Jungle style dew point of 82 degrees. Moorhead recorded a heat index of 113 today!

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

HALLOCK PTSUNNY 90 82 79 S12 29.52S HX 111

According to UM climate guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, that is likely to be an all time sate record high dew point for June 30th.

His email to me and Tom Crann Thursday afternoon.

"Paul and Tom,

Mark"

Weather Channel temps show heat wave in the central USA.

Here are some other observations from Thursday afternoon. Only a few clouds rolling through kept it from being even hotter.

Note the Heat indicies of 111 at Hallock and 112 at Moorhead!

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. N/A MEANS
CURRENT SKY AND/OR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

MNZ060>063-068>070-302200-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES PTSUNNY 94 74 52 SE14 29.70F HX 104
ST PAUL PTSUNNY 92 76 59 SE12G21 29.70F HX 104
CRYSTAL CLOUDY 93 74 53 S13 29.69F HX 103
BLAINE SUNNY 91 75 59 SE9 29.70F HX 102
EDEN PRAIRIE CLOUDY 93 76 57 SE14 29.69F HX 105
LAKEVILLE PTSUNNY 91 73 55 S10 29.71F HX 100
SOUTH ST PAUL PTSUNNY 92 74 54 SE7 29.71F HX 102
LAKE ELMO FAIR 91 73 55 SE9 29.73F HX 100
$$
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-302200-
Northwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEMIDJI PTSUNNY 84 72 65 SE13 29.65F
HALLOCK PTSUNNY 90 82 79 S12 29.52S HX 111
ROSEAU PTSUNNY 88 81 79 S13 29.57F HX 105
WARROAD PTSUNNY 84 75 74 SE16G24 29.58F HX 92
THIEF RVR FALL MOSUNNY 91 75 59 S18G24 29.60S HX 102
CROOKSTON MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW17 29.56S HX 102
FOSSTON MOSUNNY 90 75 62 S15 29.60S HX 100
DETROIT LAKES MOSUNNY 90 72 55 S15 29.65F HX 96
MOORHEAD MOSUNNY 95 79 59 S10 29.57S HX 112
PARK RAPIDS MOSUNNY 90 74 59 SE13G22 29.66F HX 99
$$
MNZ006-009>011-018-025>026-302200-
North Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BAUDETTE PTSUNNY 80 71 74 SE10G17 29.63F
FLAG ISLAND CLOUDY 73 68 83 SE18 29.58F
INTL FALLS CLOUDY 76 69 79 S15G24 29.70F
WASKISH PTSUNNY 81 73 78 SE9G16 29.65F
BIG FORK PTSUNNY 81 72 74 S10 29.73F
LONGVILLE PTSUNNY 86 75 70 SE10 29.69F HX 95
GRAND RAPIDS CLOUDY 81 72 74 SE7 29.74F
CRANE LAKE MOSUNNY 75 68 78 SE5 29.76S
ORR CLOUDY 77 68 73 S8 29.74R
COOK CLOUDY 79 70 73 S6 29.77S
$$
MNZ012-019>021-037-302200-
Northeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DULUTH PTSUNNY 70 61 73 E13 29.80S
ELY PTSUNNY 77 66 69 SE15 29.78S
HIBBING CLOUDY 80 71 74 SE10G18 29.76F
EVELETH CLOUDY 81 70 69 S13 29.79S
DULUTH HARBOR CLOUDY 54 50 87 E9 29.81F
TWO HARBORS CLOUDY 72 63 73 E10 29.78R
SILVER BAY PTSUNNY 70 61 73 NE10 29.79F
GRAND MARAIS N/A 51 47 86 NE8 29.82F
G MARAIS ARPRT PTSUNNY 70 61 73 E8 29.88S
$$
MNZ029>031-032-039>041-046>048-054>057-064-302200-
West Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
FERGUS FALLS SUNNY 91 73 55 S10 29.59F HX 100
WHEATON SUNNY 93 75 55 SE9 29.63F HX 104
MORRIS SUNNY 91 72 52 SE13G18 29.64R HX 98
ALEXANDRIA SUNNY 91 75 59 S12 29.68F HX 101
ELBOW LAKE FAIR 91 72 52 S12 29.63S HX 98
WADENA MOSUNNY 88 73 62 S12G17 29.66F HX 96
GLENWOOD MOSUNNY 91 72 52 SE13G20 29.69R HX 98
APPLETON SUNNY 91 73 55 S12 29.63F HX 100
BENSON MOSUNNY 93 75 55 SW10 29.66S HX 104
ORTONVILLE SUNNY 91 73 55 SE14G20 29.61F HX 100
MADISON SUNNY 93 75 55 S9 29.62F HX 104
WILLMAR FAIR 91 73 55 S7 29.69S HX 100
$$
MNZ033>034-036-042>043-049>051-058-059-302200-
Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ST CLOUD CLOUDY 92 75 57 SE10G17 29.68F HX 103
SAUK CENTRE FAIR 91 75 59 SE15G21 29.67F HX 102
PAYNESVILLE PTSUNNY 90 73 56 S10 29.68F HX 97
AITKIN PTSUNNY 86 75 70 SE9 29.71F HX 95
PINE RIVER PTSUNNY 88 75 66 SE14 29.72F HX 97
BRAINERD PTSUNNY 92 73 53 SE15G21 29.69F HX 100
STAPLES PTSUNNY 90 75 62 SE6 29.67F HX 100
LONG PRAIRIE FAIR 90 73 58 SE10 29.68F HX 98
LITTLE FALLS PTSUNNY 90 72 55 SE9 29.68F HX 96
LITCHFIELD CLOUDY 90 75 62 SE7 29.69F HX 100
BUFFALO CLOUDY 91 75 61 SE8 29.70F HX 101
MAPLE LAKE CLOUDY 89 76 65 SE7 29.68F HX 101
$$
MNZ037-044-045-052-053-302200-
East Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PRINCETON PTSUNNY 90 73 58 SE8 29.70F HX 98
MORA MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S8 29.73F HX 98
CAMBRIDGE MOSUNNY 91 73 55 SE8 29.69F HX 100
RUSH CITY MOSUNNY 90 74 60 SE13 29.73F HX 99
MOOSE LAKE PTSUNNY 82 73 74 SE3 29.73F
HINCKLEY MOCLDY 90 73 58 SE9G17 29.74F HX 98
CLOQUET MOSUNNY 70 57 64 E7 29.78F
MCGREGOR PTSUNNY 88 73 62 S10G21 29.74S HX 96
$$
MNZ071>073-080-081-089-090-097-098-302200-
Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MONTEVIDEO MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW12G18 29.63F HX 102
GRANITE FALLS MOSUNNY 92 72 50 S15 29.68F HX 100
CANBY SUNNY 93 70 46 S5 29.64F HX 99
MARSHALL N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
REDWOOD FALLS CLOUDY 90 72 55 S14 29.69R HX 97
OLIVIA PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S14G20 29.69R HX 98
PIPESTONE PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S15 29.71F HX 98
WINDOM CLOUDY 90 70 51 S14G20 29.72S HX 95
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY 90 70 51 SW13G18 29.75S HX 95
JACKSON CLOUDY 88 70 55 S16G22 29.73F HX 92
TRACY PTSUNNY 87 70 57 S8 29.70F HX 92
SLAYTON CLOUDY 89 68 49 S10G17 29.74F HX 92
$$
MNZ065>067-074>077-082>085-091>093-302200-
South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MANKATO CLOUDY 91 72 52 S14 29.71S HX 98
NEW ULM CLOUDY 90 72 55 S8 29.70R HX 96
ST JAMES CLOUDY 90 72 55 S9 29.70S HX 96
FAIRMONT PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S18 29.75R HX 98
GLENCOE CLOUDY 91 73 56 S7 29.70R HX 99
OWATONNA MOSUNNY 93 75 55 S12G18 29.72F HX 104
WASECA PTSUNNY 90 72 55 S13 29.75F HX 96
ALBERT LEA MOSUNNY 93 73 52 S12G18 29.72S HX 102
$$
MNZ078>079-086>088-094>096-302200-
Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER MOSUNNY 93 74 53 S18G25 29.79F HX 103
RED WING MOSUNNY 97 72 44 S12 29.73F HX 105
STANTON MOSUNNY 95 73 48 S10G18 29.71F HX 103
DODGE CENTER MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S17 29.77F HX 98
WINONA SUNNY 93 73 52 S7 29.78S HX 102
AUSTIN SUNNY 95 75 52 S12G21 29.76F HX 107
PRESTON SUNNY 91 72 54 S13G22 29.81F HX 97
$$
ABBREVIATIONS USED IN REMARKS
TC - TEMPERATURES IN CELSIUS
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
VSB - VISIBILITY
$$

Excessive Heat Warnings are rare in Minnesota.

The latest version continues through 8pm Friday.

We asked for this all winter right?? Okay...maybe not this hot.

The air mass surging into the Upper Midwest is a combination of hot and relatively dry desert air that has been baking the Desert Southwest, and a tropically humid Gulf of Mexico air mass.

Minnesota is mostly on the tropical side of things, with dew points surging into the upper 60s and 70s today. In the drier air to the west, temperatures will surge to over 100 degrees as you head toward Omaha.

Heat index tops 100:

Think of heat index as the summer opposite of wind chill. The Heat Index calculates the "apparent temperature" on your body based on the combination of temperature and humidity.

The heat index should reach a dangerous 100 to 107 late Thursday.

Wind direction matters:

Minnesota's topography plays a role when it comes to wind direction and temperatures. While most notable in mountains, upslope and downslope winds do play a role in Minnesota temperatures.

A southeast wind rises up the Mississippi River Valley toward the Twin Cities. The result is rising air...or "upslope" as it is referred to in the weather biz. Rising air cools, and thus temperatures tend to be not quite as hot on a southeast wind in Minnesota.

A southwest wind in Minnesota sinks off the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota as it descends toward the Minnesota River Valley. This "downslope" wind warms as it sinks...like a little mini "Minnesota Chinook." That is why temperatures are almost always warmer on a southwest wind in Minnesota.

All southerly winds are not created equal in Minnesota. Who knew?

Hotter Friday than today??

Thursday's heat is grabbing all the headlines, but there may be some locations in southern Minnesota that are actually warmer on Friday.

Why?

As winds shift from a southeasterly direction Thursday to southwesterly Friday we'll see more downslope warming. Also, the air mass to the west is drier, and dry air heats more easily than moist air.

The result may be some readings even hotter Friday than today...even though it may feel a bit more comfortable.

Great 4th of July Weekend?

I have to say the upcoming 4th of July weekend looks summery and great. Not perfect maybe...but really, really good. Here's the breakdown:

Friday: Mostly sunny & hot. Highs 90 south and 80s north. A few T-Storms late Friday night into early (pre dawn) Saturday morning.

Saturday: Weather perfection? Mostly sunny & warm but less humid. High near 85. NW wind 5-13 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny again & warm. High near 86. Light SW wind.

4th of July: Hazy sunshine & warm with just a slight T-Storm chance...but mostly dry! High near 88.

Wow...does it get any better than that??

PH

Metro Heat Warnings; Minnesota warms most in "new normals"

Posted at 4:00 PM on June 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

You can feel it in the air.

Summer heat and humidity are making a comeback. Temperatures and dew points are on the rise as a steamy tropical air mass surges north.

Check out the rise in dew point in Pipestone from the comfy 50s in the morning to a sticky tropical 70 degrees by Wednesday afternoon!

Dew points on the rise in Pipestone, MN

Excessive Heat Warnings kick in for the metro at noon Thursday until 7am Friday. Heat index values between 100 and 106 degrees will make it feel oppressively (and dangerously) hot Thursday PM & evening.

Heat advisories are in effect for all of southern Minnesota.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.A HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S ALONG WITH SURGING DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S...WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE INNER DOWNTOWN AREAS
OF THE METRO WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MNZ060-062-300430-
/O.UPG.KMPX.EH.A.0001.110630T1700Z-110701T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.EH.W.0002.110630T1700Z-110701T1200Z/
HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL
317 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 AM
CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY
TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS IN THE 90S THURSDAY WITH A HEAT INDEX FROM
100 TO 106 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAT INDEX
REMAINING ABOVE 75 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE CENTRAL URBANIZED AREAS OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

Heat Wave Safety Tips

Slow down. Strenuous activities should be reduced, eliminated, or rescheduled to the coolest time of the day. Individuals at risk should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors.

Dress for summer. Lightweight light-colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your body maintain normal temperatures.

Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.

Drink plenty of water or other non-alcohol fluids. Your body needs water to keep cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you don't feel thirsty. Persons who (1) have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, (2) are on fluid restrictive diets or (3) have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids.

Do not drink alcoholic beverages.

Do not take salt tablets unless specified by a physician.

Spend more time in air-conditioned places. Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, spending some time each day (during hot weather) in an air conditioned environment affords some protection.

Don't get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult

Thankfully, the intense heat won't last. A weak but welcome cool front should drop humidity considerable Friday night and Saturday. It still looks plenty warm this weekend with temps near 90...but it will fell less humid as dew points drop from the 70s to the upper 50s by Saturday!

Minnesota shows biggest warming in new NOAA 30-Year averages:

Climate chnage theory and observations have long shown that in a warming planet, the amount of warming increases as you move north toward the poles.

The new NOAA 30-Year Averages set to be released Friday seems to be another strong piece of evidence in that direction. And Minnesota and Wisconsin appear to show the greatest increase in average temperatures in the Continental USA.

New 1981-2010 'normals' to be released this week

June 29, 2011

"According to the 1981-2010 normals to be released by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on July 1, temperatures across the United States were on average, approximately 0.5 degree F warmer than the 1971-2000 time period.

Normals serve as a 30 year baseline average of important climate variables that are used to understand average climate conditions at any location and serve as a consistent point of reference. The new normals update the 30-year averages of climatological variables, including average temperature and precipitation for more than 7,500 locations across the United States. This once-a-decade update will replace the current 1971-2000 normals."

As I reported earlier this month, data shows the greatest warming is at night, and in winter.

The full report will be released Friday.

PH

Comment on this post

Excessive Heat Watch; 100 in metro Thursday?

Posted at 9:05 AM on June 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes

I hope the A/C is tuned up and ready to go!

Some headlines for the blog today:

-Excessive Heat Watch issued for metro Thursday:

Heat indices over 100 likely...

-Temperature Forecast Techniques:

Just how do meteorologists come up with a "number?"

-Isolated Overnight T-Storm?

Warm front may spark a rumbler overnight.

-1st named storm in Atlantic Hurricane Season:

Tropical Storm Arlene gears up off Mexican Coast.

The heat is on for Thursday:

Get ready for another heat blast.

A strong ridge of high pressure is building overhead Thursday. You'll start to feel the dew point creeping up today, and by Thursday, a full blown "hot front" will push temps to near 100 degrees.

An Excessive Heat Watch is posted by Twin Cities NWS. It will likely be upgraded to a warning Thursday.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.A HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH SURGING DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE INNER DOWNTOWN AREAS OF THE METRO WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

MNZ060-062-291715-
/O.NEW.KMPX.EH.A.0001.110630T1700Z-110701T1200Z/
HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL
414 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS IN THE 90S THURSDAY WITH A HEAT INDEX FROM
100 TO 106.

* IMPACTS...THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE CENTRAL URBANIZED AREAS OF THE TWIN
CITIES METRO.

How high will it go?

Depending on what you look at, you can get a temperature in the 95 to 100 degree range in most of southern Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. Combine a dew point in the mid 70s, and heat index could reach 100 to 106 degrees!

Temperature forecast techniques:

Just how do meteorologists come up with tomorrow's high temp? Where does that "number" come from anyway??

There are various forecast techniques used to calculate and predict temperatures.

One old tried and true method is "temperature computation." This is basically what forecast models do these days, but we used to do it by hand back in the "old school" days.

You start with the latest actual temperature...let's say the overnight low was 62 degrees

From 62 degrees, you add the average "diurnal variation" (difference between the average high & low temp on a given day) for the day. This time of year that's 21 degrees for the metro.

So 62 + 21 = 83 degrees if everything is "average."

Now you apply various correction factors. These may include

-Warm or cold advection (warmer or colder air moving in)
-Sun/clouds & sun angle
-Wind
-Precipitation
-Snow cover
-Soil moisture
-Residual heat/cold
-Miscellaneous factors such as smoke, haze etc.
-Lake effect in Great Lakes

After you apply the correction factors (specifics stored deep in the Weather Lab vault) you come up with a number. If you did it right, you should be pretty close to the forecast high or low temp.

850 millibar "mix down" technique:

Another way to shortcut a forecast high temperature is what's called the 850 millibar mix down technique. Basically you use the air temp at 850 millibars (around 5,000 feet above ground level) and "mix it down" to the surface. As the air descends it warms adiabatically. The temperature at 850 mb can be a great indicator of the potential surface temp on a given day.

This technique can work very well on windy sunny days in spring and summer.

Thursday's forecast 850 millibar temps of around 29 degrees Celsius would yield a surface temp of 100 to 105 degrees if everything worked out just right! Relatively high dew points may slow the heat burst, because it takes more energy to heat moist air.

Either way it's going to feel oppressively ht Thursday.

This is Amazon Jungle heat folks.

Rumbler ovenight?

As the heat gurgles north tonight, there is a chance that isolated T-Storms could develop in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Don't be shocked if you hear thunder and rain in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Arlene kicks off Atlantic Season:

Tropical Strom Arlene is the 1st named storm of the Atlantic Season.

Arlene is forecast to track westward into Mexico Thursday. The primary threat is heavy rainfall.

The details from NHC:

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN

PH

Comment on this post

"Heat Storm" fades; Cool front now; 40 degrees cooler Friday?

Posted at 8:47 AM on June 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

That was hot!

The "final" numbers show Tuesday's 103 degree heat blast at MSP Airport was the hottest day in the metro in 23 years.

Brutal Highs Tuesday. (click images to enlarge)

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
738 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

ASOS AIRPORTS - WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI
WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/SNOW DEPTH REPORTS

MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN
EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 100 / 78 / 0.00
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 103 / 75 / 0.00
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 101 / 57 / 0.00
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 95 / 57 / 0.00
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 102 / 70 / 0.00
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 101 / 69 / 0.00
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 99 / 65 / 0.00
STP : ST PAUL MN : 101 / 71 / 0.00

Here are some of the sweltering details from the Twin Cities NWS.

Record Heat

Fast Facts:

The high of 103° observed at 3:26 pm on Tuesday at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport:

-Breaks the previous June 7th record of 95° set in 2004.
-Was the first 100°+ reading since July 31, 2006 (101°).
-Was the first 103°+ reading in almost 23 years, since July 31, 1988.
-Was tied for the second warmest temperature in the past 69 years (July 31, 1988 with 105° was the only warmer one)
-Was the second earliest on record that 103° had occurred, only behind May 31, 1934.
-Fell 1° short of the all-time June record of 104° set on June 27th, 1934.

The high of 101° observed at 4:12 pm on Tuesday at the St. Cloud Airport:

-Breaks the previous June 7th record of 96° in 2004.
-Was the first 100°+ reading and warmest temperature since July 31, 2006 (101°).
-Was the second earliest on record that 101° had occurred, only behind May 31, 1934.
-Fell 1° short of the all-time June record of 102° on June 28th, 1931 and June 24th, 1988.

The high of 100° observed on Tuesday at the Eau Claire Airport:

-Breaks the previous June 7th record of 95° in 1987.
-Was the first 100°+ reading and warmest temperature since July 31, 2006 (103°).
-Fell 2° short of the all-time June record of 102° on June 29th, 1931.

Tuesday's high temperature map shows the Twin Cities was hotter than Tucson, AZ (99 degrees) and Phoenix (96 degrees)!

Why so hot?

Several factors contributed to Tuesday's "Heat storm."

-A strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over Minnesota

-Drier air from the southwestern deserts dropped dew points into the 50s. Dry air heats more easily than moist air. If the dew point had remained near 70 we likely would not have hit 100 Tuesday...but it would have felt every bit as hot.

-Strong southerly winds from the surface through the 5,000 foot level (low level jet stream) caused air aloft to descend, "mix down" and warm "adiabatically" which acted to boost temperatures.

Red colors indicate heat. "Wind barbs" show highest winds at 5,000 feet late Thursday night.

Any way you slice it, Tuesday was one for the record books.

16th hottest day at MSP since 1871:

A look at the NWS generated chart below shows only 15 days have been hotter since 1871 than Tuesday's 103 degree scorcher at MSP. I've boxed in the last day hotter than Tuesday, July 31, 1988. (105 degrees)

Seeley perspective:

MPR colleague and UM climate guru Dr. Mark Seeley adds more perspective from his Weather Talk blog.

"On Tuesday, June 7, more new record high temperature values were
reported. It was arguably the hottest June 7th in state history, as
many locations broke the statewide record high temperature of 100
degrees F (at Lamberton and Madison in 1987). Among those breaking
the century mark were Red Wind, MSP, South St Paul, Rochester,
Mankato, Owatonna, Blue Earth, Faribault, Mankato, St Peter, St
Cloud, Collegeville, Gaylord, and New Prague. The 103 degrees F
recorded at MSP will probably stand as the new state record for June
7th. It was the first time the Twin Cities has reached 103 degrees F
in the month of June since 1934."

Cool front today!

How do you spell relief? C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T!

A cold front is pushing east through Minnesota Tuesday morning. The front is sweeping the record heat away to the east, and a much cooler air mass is moving in.

Today will be pleasant in the south to downright chilly in northern Minnesota. High will range form the 60s up north, the near 80 in the south today.

Thursday will feature highs in the 60s to near 70. With highs only in the 60s Friday, it will be nearly 40 degrees cooler Friday than it was on Tuesday in some areas!

Temps crash 40 degrees by Friday!

Only in Minnesota.

Next rain Friday?

After a dry spell it looks like the next significant rain for Minnesota moves in during the wee hours of Friday morning. A low pressure system should spread a band of showers into southwest Minnesota Thursday night. The system should spread rain north into the metro overnight Thursday night, and into central and northern Minnesota Friday.

Early estimates indicate rainfall could be widely variable, but .50"+ is not out of the question for many locations.

Expect a rainy cool day on Friday with temperatures in the 60s, a stark contrast from Tuesday desert like heat blast!

PH

Comment on this post

Heat Storm: 103 is hottest day in 23 years! Cool front ahead

Posted at 11:09 PM on June 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner (10 Comments)
Filed under: Fire weather, Heat

Update 11:09PM:

The latest from Twin Cities NWS.

Record Heat

Fast Facts:

The high of 103° observed so far at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport:

Breaks the previous June 7th record of 95° set in 2004.
Was the first 100°+ reading since July 31, 2006.
Was the first 103°+ reading in almost 23 years, since July 31, 1988.
Was tied for the second warmest temperature in the past 69 years (July 31, 1988 with 105° was the only warmer one)
Was the second earliest on record that 103° had occurred, only behind May 31, 1934.
Fell 1° short of the all-time June record of 104° set on June 27th, 1934.

Record Heat:

Tuesday June 7th

A record high was set at Minneapolis on Tuesday, June 7th - The previous record high was 95 degrees set in 2004. The temperature rose to 103 degrees at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport at 326 PM CDT.

This marks the hottest day since 1988 according to NWS records when the mercury hit 105 at MSP Airport on July 31, 1988.

PH

****

Now we know what it's like to live inside a hair dryer.

The hottest air in the nation hit the Twin cities with blast furnace heat today. We blew the previous record of 95 degrees (2004) for the date out of the water in the Twin Cities today.

Record High Set at Minneapolis on Tuesday, June 7th - The previous record high was 95 degrees set in 2004. The temperature rose to 102 degrees at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport as of 220 PM CDT...and could still rise before the end of the day. The last time it was 102 degrees in the Twin Cities was July 15th 1988.

We also smashed the all time state record for Minnesota today according to an email I received today from my MPR colleague and UM climate guru Dr. Mark Seeley.

"I expect that we will not only see new station record highs this afternoon, but also perhaps a new statewide record high for the date. The all-time record for June 7th is 100 degrees F at Madison and Lamberton in 1987."

We may not yet be at the day's high...it could get hotter before 6pm tonight.

Stay cool!

PH

******

Talk about "instant summer."

-The thermometer at Twin Cities Airport flashed 97 degrees at 5:43pm Monday, marking the hottest day in 2 years for the metro. The last time we hit 97? May 19th 2009.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
711 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
:
: MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN
EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 94 / 67 / 0.00
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 97 / 78 / 0.00
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 94 / 69 / 0.00
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 91 / 67 / 0.00
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 95 / 70 / 0.00
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 96 / 75 / 0.00
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 98 / 74 / 0.00
STP : ST PAUL MN : 94 / 71 / 0.00
:

Twin Cities NWS calls the record below.

-Record High Set at Minneapolis on Monday, June 6th - A record high temperature of 97° was recorded at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport on Monday. The record high temperature occurred at 5:43 pm. This broke the old record of 95 degrees set in 1987 and 1979.

-Temperatures hit the 100 degree mark in Redwood Falls and Fairmont Monday, and pushed well into the upper 90s elswhere.

IN MINNESOTA
:
BTHM5: BLUE EARTH MN : DH0600/ M / 61 / 0.00
CFAM5: CANNON FALLS MN : DH0600/ 93 / 70 / 0.00
MPXM5: CHANHASSEN WFO : DH0600/ 93 / 67 / 0.00
CHKM5: CHASKA NW MN : DH0600/ 95 / 66 / 0.00
FIRM5: FAIRMONT MN : DH0700/ 100 / 74 / 0.00
FORM5: FOREST LAKE MN : DH0700/ 94 / 65 / 0.00
HSTM5: HASTINGS L/D MN : DH0600/ 94 / 70 / 0.00
JORM5: JORDAN MN : DH0530/ 94 / 71 / 0.00
KIMM5: KIMBALL MN : DH0600/ 91 / 62 / 0.00
LNGM5: LONG PRAIRIE MN : DH0600/ 88 / 57 / 0.00
LSAM5: LWR ST ANTHONY MN : DH0600/ 90 / 65 / 0.00
MVDM5: MONTEVIDEO MN : DH0700/ 97 / 65 / 0.00
RDWM5: RED WING L/D MN : DH0520/ 93 / 69 / 0.00
REWM5: REDWOOD FALLS MN : DH0500/ 100 / 65 / 0.00
RCEM5: RICE MN : DH0700/ 93 / 65 / 0.00

Hottest day in 5 years today?

Tuesday has the potential to be the hottest day in 5 years in parts of southern Minnesota. It is highly likely that bank thermometers will flash 100 degrees in several southern Minnesota towns, including a few in the Twin Cities metro area.

The last time the Twin Cities felt 100 degrees was nearly 5 years ago on July 31, 2006. That day the thermometer at MSP Airport blinked a scorching 101 degrees.

One forecast technique we use as meteorologists is to take an air parcel from about 5,000 feet and "mix down" to the surface to forecast maximum temperatures. If you do that today, and we get full sun and everything else goes just right, that technique yields a high temperature between 100 to 104 degrees in southern Minnesota today. We may not get that high, but the air mass is capable of that kind of heat!

Excessive Heat Warning:

We don't get many EHW's in Minnesota, but this dangerously hot high pressure dome warrants the warning today.

The cirteria for the NWS to issue excessive heat warnings in the metro is fairly straight forward.

I worked in Chicago during the infamous killer 1995 Chicago heat wave and covered the event along with meteorologist Tom Skilling for WGN-TV. Over 700 people died that week, and we learned that heat is cumulative on the human body. If you can't cool off at night, your body just can't keep up with daytime temps that feel like or exceed 100 degrees.

One of the main features of that killer heat wave was that nighttime temperatures never dropped below 81 degrees for a few days, and that just didn't give people a chance to cool down. Many elderly victims succumbed to the heat inside red brick apartments that acted like ovens in the oppressive heat.

Needless to say take care today to stay cool, and check on elderly friends, neighbors and relatives to see that they are cool.

More records will fall today:

The record high of 95 degrees today in the metro (set back in 2004) will almost certainly fall today. Here are some additional records that are likely to fall today.

Mercifully our barbaric heat blast will be brief. A cold front will sail through tomorrow and drop temperatures 20 degrees in southern Minnesota.

Smoke from Arizona fires visible in Minnesota today?

You may notice a whitish tint to the sky today, and vivid colors at sunset tonight.

The smoke plume from the massive wildfires in the White Mountains of eastern Arizona has travelled over a thousand miles and should filter into Minnesota today. The smoke was already visible in Iowa Monday, and brisk southerly winds today should inject the plume right into Minnesota.

The Wallow Fire (named after the area in which the fire began) is massive and growing on hot dry Arizona winds.

The fires near the beautiful mountain resorts of Greer and Alpine in eastern Arizona have burned over 230,000 acres. I have vacationed in Greer, and it is an absolutely stunningly beautiful mountain valley tucked into the mountains. It is sad to see that area could be forever changed by the massive fires.

Smoke visible from webcam in Greer Arizona Tuesday morning.

-Greer webcam

During the 9 years I spent in Arizona well over a million acres of prime Ponderosa Pine forest went up in smoke before my eyes. I covered the tragic firestorm in the town of Summerhaven in the Santa Catalina Mountains live on air in Tucson on June 20, 2003.

The landscape is dramatically different now, even as the town tries to bounce back.

In "marginal climate zones" like the mountains of Arizona you can't help wonder if we're witnessing the effects of climate change right before our eyes as millions of acres of forests that have stood for hundreds or thousands of years go up in smoke before our eyes.

PH

Comment on this post

Excessively hot in the Twin Cities and elsewhere

Posted at 3:46 PM on June 6, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

Image highlights the Excessive Heat Warning through Tuesday night for the Twin Cities in purple and Heat Advisory for southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin in light orange.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HENNEPIN AND
RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM ON WEDNESDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SURROUNDING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING...AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FROM NOON TO 8 PM TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES ALBERT LEA...EAU
CLAIRE...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
PROBABLY NOT DROP BELOW 75 DEGREES...AND THE HEAT WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR...OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS.

High temperatures were peaking in the 90s in southern Minnesota late this afternoon. Relative humidities ranged from 20 percent at Worthington to around 45 percent in St. Paul. The combination of the hot temperatures and the moderate relative humidities was producing Heat Index values that were very similar to the actual air temperature, which is taken in the shade.

The thermometer registered 99 degrees in Worthington at 4PM.

Heat Index values can be as much as 15 degrees warmer in the direct afternoon sun, without the impact of a cooling breeze.

Light winds overnight will allow for some warmth of the day to radiate back into the atmosphere in rural areas. The downtown Metro, with concrete and pavement, will prove the heat island concept and keep the temperatures from falling mcuh below 80 degrees in the wee morning hours.

Tuesday has the potential to bring even warmer temperatures as southwest winds kick in at speeds approaching 30 mph. Some bank thermometers may display triple digits, 100 degrees, late in the afternoon. A well timed cool front sweeps through Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday. The timing of the front will impact the initiation of thunderstorms. There is a chance that showers could bypass parts of central Minnesota.

Graphical temperature forecast for high temperatures on Tuesday.

Wednesday brings the transition from heat to below normal temperatures for the end of the work week.

Here's a look at the forecast high temperatures for Thursday, some twenty to twenty-five degrees cooler in southern Minnesota the Tuesday.

Thunderstorms may form tonight through central and northern Minnesota, north of the bubble of hot air. Best chance for scattered thunderstorms appears to be from about Fargo to Hinckley.

Indications are that the temperatures will recover back to normal readings for the weekend.

Follow the recommendations of health officials to endure the next thirty-six hours of hot weather.
CE

Comment on this post

Stifling heat, especially in the Twin Cities

Posted at 6:34 AM on June 6, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat

The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for the Twin Cities. Concrete and pavement of the urban area capture and store heat. While a large region of southern Minnesota will experience maximum temperatures near 90 or higher today, the downtown area will not give up the warmth overnight. It will be a few degrees hotter on Tuesday. Be cautious.

Statement issued this morning by the Chanhassen NWS.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
439 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVING IN...

.HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S AND THE HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 90S TODAY AND NEAR 100 ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INNER DOWNTOWN AREAS OF THE METRO
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

Strong thunderstorms may fire up later today in the summer heat and humidity.

IMPORTANT: Since heat index values were devised for shady, light wind conditions, exposure to full sunshine can increase heat index values by up to 15°F. Strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can be extremely hazardous.

The Heat Index Chart shaded zone above 105°F shows a level that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity.

Read more about excessive heat here.

A cold front pushes the hot air out of here on Wednesday. By Thursday the highs will be only in the upper 60s in the Metro. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s in the Arrowhead region on Thursday morning.

Comment on this post

Weekend weather treat!

Posted at 2:14 PM on June 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Tornadoes

You may want to buy a lottery ticket today.

It appears for once we may get lucky and a great early summer-like weekend in Minnesota.

Trends indicate that Friday's hot sticky summery air mass will be swept east this weekend and replaced by a sunnier, drier fresher weather pattern.

My weather toes and fingers are crossed that the maps verify, but it looks good.

Season's first 90s Friday!

Tropical heat and humidity surged north into southern Minnesota Friday. The "hot front" pushed temperatures into the 90s from the metro south.

Here are some readings as of 4pm Friday. Rochester takes the golden thermometer so far with 96 degrees as of 4pm!

Update 5pm: Austin hits 97!

AUSTIN PTSUNNY 97 61 30 SW21G26 29.75S HX 97

MNZ060>063-068>070-032200-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES CLOUDY 91 68 46 SW10 29.71S HX 95
ST PAUL PTSUNNY 89 69 51 S9 29.71S HX 93
CRYSTAL CLOUDY 88 70 55 W6 29.70S HX 93
BLAINE PTSUNNY 88 72 58 S8 29.71F HX 94
EDEN PRAIRIE CLOUDY 87 68 52 SW9 29.71R HX 90
LAKEVILLE PTSUNNY 90 66 45 S7 29.72R HX 92
SOUTH ST PAUL PTSUNNY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.70S HX 93
LAKE ELMO FAIR 86 68 54 S10 29.72F

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

FAIRMONT CLOUDY 90 64 43 SW21G29 29.77S HX 91
FARIBAULT PTSUNNY 91 57 31 SW14G20 29.76R HX 90
OWATONNA PTSUNNY 93 61 33 SW20G32 29.74R HX 93
WASECA PTSUNNY 90 59 35 SW13 29.76S
ALBERT LEA MOSUNNY 91 61 35 SW10G23 29.71S HX 91
$$

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ROCHESTER MOSUNNY 96 65 35 S23G30 29.79S HX 98
RED WING CLOUDY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.72F HX 94
STANTON PTSUNNY 93 63 36 S10G21 29.72R HX 94
DODGE CENTER MOSUNNY 90 63 40 SW24G31 29.77R HX 90
WINONA PTSUNNY 91 64 40 S8 29.77S HX 93
AUSTIN SUNNY 93 61 33 SW21G28 29.76R HX 93
PRESTON SUNNY 92 62 36 SW23G37 29.79F HX 93

Temperatures pushed 100 in northern Iowa Friday!

NORTHWEST IOWA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CARROLL * MOSUNNY 99 48 18 SW26G37 29.79S HX 95

The air mass is also topically humid, with the season's first 70 degree dew points in the metro Friday.

Blaine recorded a dew point of 72 Friday, and my "unofficial" La Crosse Technology digital weather station the weather lab in the west metro recorded a dew point of 74.8 degrees !

SPC is monitoring easatern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin for a slight severe threat Friday night, with the best severe parameters are focused on northwest Wisconsin.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL WI...WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032033Z - 032200Z

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF
STRONG CAP MAY BE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER SCNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH
ECHOES ARE WEAK WITH THIS CONVECTION...THERE IS A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT TOWARD A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/NRN WI WHERE INTENSIFICATION
MAY OCCUR. WHILE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE OVER WI...SUSTAINED ASCENT MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
SUFFICIENT COOLING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP FOR DEEPER UPDRAFTS TO ROOT INTO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IF SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 06/03/2011

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Sunnier, drier weekend:

Let's break down the weekend.

Friday night:

A cool front pushing through Minnesota will drag scattered showers, T-Storms and a tropical air mass east into Wisconsin Friday later evening.

Scattered storms may accompany the front as it moves east.

SPC is monitoring the area (especially NW Wisconsin) for a slight severe risk.

Temperatures will slowly fall from the hot & sticky upper 80s and 90s in southern Minnesota Friday evening.

Saturday & Sunday: "Dry Front"

The air behind the front is still summer-like with temperatures near 80 this weekend in the south, and 70s up north. But you'll really notice a drop in humidity Saturday.

Dew points behind the front are in the 30s and 40s in the Dakotas!

The weekend looks mostly dry and sunny, but I can't rule out a stray shower or T-Storm Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.

Don't look now, but we might actually get a rare nice weekend in 2011.

Why so many tornadoes and deaths in 2011?

Here's some great perspective on why tornadoes can cause so much destruction, tornado myths and simple ways to make your home more "tornado resistant" from the NWS office in Milwaukee. (Thanks to MPR & Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for passing this along)

"Tornado Myths

Violent tornadoes basically destroy and/or level standard, stick-built residential homes and most other structures that don't have a steel or concrete core or have extra anchoring devices that enhance that building's wind-resistant capabilities. So for most people in this country, there isn't much that can be done when it comes to EF4 and EF5 tornadoes unless they are in a storm shelter or safe room designed to withstand such a tornado (see other related factors in this listing). End result is increased chances of death with violent tornadoes."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Bottom line? We may be able to pin part of the 2011 tornado swarm onto a La Nina induced weather pattern, but the numerous direct hits on cities this year is probably just (the bad) luck of the draw, and increasing sprawl.

Makes us appreciate a quiet weather pattern this weekend.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

Update 5:40pm:

SPC has tacked on Tornado Watch #424 until midnight for much of northeast Minnesota.

Update 5:40pm:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF ELY
MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Update 5:30pm:

SPC has issued Tornado Watch #423 for much of western Wisconsin until midnight.

The watch does not include the Twin Cities metro and it appears the severe weather threat is focused in Wisconsin tonight.

Here are the included counties for MPR listeners in western Wisconsin.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 423
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

WIC005-017-033-035-091-107-040500-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.A.0423.110603T2215Z-110604T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 423 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

BARRON RUSK

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE
PEPIN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHIPPEWA FALLS...DURAND...
EAU CLAIRE...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE AND RICE LAKE.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The text from SPC.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREEN BAY
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PH

Tropical thundery Friday! Low level jet stream rules

Posted at 8:45 AM on June 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Weekend

Update 8:50am Friday:

Our steamy air mass is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms this Friday.

Look for scattered storms with thunder and local downpours.

With dew points well into the 60s to near 70 degrees, some of the rainfall could be on the heavy side.

Here's the latest Twin Cities radar loop to track the storms.

Radar shows scattered thunder & rain Friday morning.

PH

*****

Summer is back for most of Minnesota!

A warm front has pushed north into Minnesota, and a warm humid air mass is moving in.

A steamy Friday has the look and feel of July on the weather maps and in the air.

The Front:

The warm front is the leading edge of a low pressure system in the Northern Rockies. The front will bisect Minnesota Friday, bringing warm air to almost all of the state.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story highlights warm front Friday.

The only exception to the warmth is the North Shore where southeast winds may keep temps mired in the 50s and lower 60s near the lake.

The best chance for any severe storms (a slight risk) appears to be in northern Minnesota.

SPC risk areas Friday.

The Air Mass:

The air mass behind the front is juicy to say the least.

Temperatures in the upper 80s pushed into southwest Minnesota Thursday, and a "hot front" of sorts blazed into western Kansas, where bank thermometers pushed 100 degrees late Thursday.

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

NORTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GOODLAND CLOUDY 92 50 23 S26G35 29.75F
HAYS MOSUNNY 97 57 26 S29G39 29.77F HX 95
HILL CITY PTSUNNY 100 53 20 S25G35 29.71F HX 98
RUSSELL MOSUNNY 95 57 27 S29G37 29.77F
$$

SOUTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DODGE CITY SUNNY 97 48 18 S26G37 29.81F
ELKHART N/A 95 50 21 S18 N/A
GARDEN CITY SUNNY 100 49 17 S26G39 29.79F HX 97
GREAT BEND MOSUNNY 91 55 29 S26G33 29.82F
LIBERAL MOSUNNY 99 55 23 S29G38 29.84F HX 97
PRATT SUNNY 93 48 21 S25G37 29.86F

Heat bubbles north Thursday.

Upper 80s to near 90 look likely for southern Minnesota Friday afternoon. If enough of Thursday's Kansas heat wave works north into the system, we could see some readings well into the 90s in southern Minnesota.

Cool front=nicer weekend!

The passing low pressure system will drag a cool front through Minnesota Friday night into early Saturday. A fresh Canadian air mass will sail in for the weekend with much drier and somewhat cooler (but still pleasantly warm) air.

Look for highs near 80 this weekend with comfortable dew points dropping into the 50s. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out for Sunday afternoon.

Dew points crash this weekend.

Low Level Jet Stream = windy day!

Summer in Minnesota and the plains is known for warm to hot and often windy southerly breezes. You can usually thank the low level jet stream for a windy warm summer day.

Meteorologists call "main" jet stream the "Polar Front Jet Stream." This fast moving ribbon of air around 18.000 feet above ground level races through the mid latitudes and steers storm systems along its path.

A second jet stream lower in the atmosphere becomes more pronounced at times during summer. This so called "Low Level Jet" (LLJ in meteorologist "geek speak") races about 5,000 feet above us, much closer than the upper level jet.

The LLJ can blow anywhere from 35 to over 50 mph in different scenarios, and often "mixes down" to ground level to create windy summer days, and to add fuel to developing thunderstorms.

The LLJ is notorious for providing energy to help trigger "nocturnal" thunderstorms where it intersects with warm frontal boundaries late at night in summer.

The LLJ pumps warm humid air straight from the Gulf of Mexico into Minnesota during the summer. IF you like it hot windy, and humid in summer, you can usually thank the LLJ!

PH

Nicer today; Storm tonight? Heat builds Thursday & Friday

Posted at 7:28 AM on June 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes, Mosquitoes

Weather headlines for June 1st:

-Wednesday weather improves. More sun, less wind. (but still breezy) High 78. Wind W 10-20 mph eases PM.

-Warm front pushes north tonight. Scattered showers & T-Storms overnight.

-Heat surges north Thursday & Friday. First 90s possible! Muggy dew points near 70?

-Cool front Saturday. Nice weekend with highs near 80 and an isolated T-Storm threat Sunday?

-Meteorological summer begins today! (June 1 - Aug 31)

-Hurricane season begins today. Hurricane outlooks of little value?

-Mosquito Tracker: Find out what's been treated in your neighborhood.

Changeable Forecast:

On a scale of 1 to 10 today might be a 9 in the context of this spring. Look for mainly sunny skies and temps in the mid to upper 70s in southern Minnesota this afternoon.

NWS weather story. (Click all images to enlarge)

Weather station plots over GOES 1km visible satellite image show a west wind again Wednesday morning.

Clouds (and a few showers) may linger in the north with cooler temps in the 60s.

Winds will still blow, but not nearly as strong as the storm force winds of Tuesday. Check out some of Tuesday's observed gusts below. A more complete list from Twin Cities NWS here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST...

...MINNESOTA...

...ANOKA COUNTY...

1 SW BLAINE (912 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 445 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
2 NW ANOKA (872 FT)(APRSWXNET) 333 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
6 WNW FOREST LAKE (899 FT)(RAWS) 806 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

...CARVER COUNTY...

3 S CARVER (845 FT)(RAWS) 649 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WSW WACONIA (1012 FT)(AWS) 459 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 NE LESTER PRAIRIE (938 FT)(MNDOT) 308 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...CHISAGO COUNTY...

1 NE RUSH CITY (921 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1034 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...DAKOTA COUNTY...

2 NE LAKEVILLE (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 633 PM MAY 31 31 MPH
3 WSW FARMINGTON (958 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 652 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 SSW FARMINGTON (944 FT)(APRSWXNET) 712 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
2 NNE EAGAN (820 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 454 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
2 NNW BURNSVILLE (792 FT)(MNDOT) 657 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...DOUGLAS COUNTY...

4 NNW ALEXANDRIA (1381 FT)(AWS) 604 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
3 SSE ALEXANDRIA (1440 FT)(MNDOT) 757 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
ALEXANDRIA ASOS (1423 FT)(ASOS) 725 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

1 W BROOKLYN PARK (853 FT)(APRSWXNET) 604 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 SE MAPLE GROVE (926 FT)(MNDOT) 401 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WSW ROBBINSDALE (2854 FT)(APRSWXNET) 235 PM MAY 31 37 MPH
CRYSTAL ASOS (869 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
FLYING CLOUD ASOS (905 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
1 N MINNEAPOLIS (1066 FT)(APRSWXNET) 217 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
MINNEAPOLIS ASOS (836 FT)(ASOS) 953 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...ISANTI COUNTY...

2 W CAMBRIDGE (941 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 956 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...KANABEC COUNTY...

1 E MORA (1013 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1057 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
1 ENE MORA (1012 FT)(RAWS) 1108 PM MAY 31 42 MPH

...KANDIYOHI COUNTY...

3 WSW PRINSBURG (3504 FT)(APRSWXNET) 1127 AM MAY 31 34 MPH
4 NW WILLMAR (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 315 PM MAY 31 46 MPH

...LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY...

MADISON (1115 FT)(IEM) 427 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
2 SSE MADISON (1082 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 434 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
5 SSW MARIETTA (1169 FT)(MNDOT) 313 PM MAY 31 54 MPH

...MARTIN COUNTY...

2 ENE FAIRMONT (1161 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 415 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...MCLEOD COUNTY...

1 WSW HUTCHINSON (1051 FT)(APRSWXNET) 503 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
3 E GLENCOE (990 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 515 PM MAY 31 38 MPH
1 SSW HUTCHINSON (1059 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...MEEKER COUNTY...

3 S LITCHFIELD (1076 FT)(RAWS) 411 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...MILLE LACS COUNTY...

1 WSW PRINCETON (977 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 813 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
7 SE ONAMIA (1259 FT)(RAWS) 536 PM MAY 31 42 MPH
8 N MILACA (1195 FT)(MNDOT) 1039 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...POPE COUNTY...

3 E GLENWOOD (1394 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 48 MPH
9 SSW STARBUCK (1272 FT)(MNDOT) 631 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...RAMSEY COUNTY...

1 NW NORTH SAINT PAUL (981 FT)(APRSWXNET) 730 PM MAY 31 31 MPH
2 ESE ROSEVILLE (964 FT)(APRSWXNET) 702 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
SAINT PAUL ASOS (685 FT)(ASOS) 553 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...REDWOOD COUNTY...

REDWOOD FALLS ASOS (1023 FT)(ASOS) 653 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...RICE COUNTY...

3 NW FARIBAULT (1056 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 814 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
7 W NORTHFIELD (999 FT)(MNDOT) 315 PM MAY 31 40 MPH
NORTHFIELD (908 FT)(APRSWXNET) 655 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...SCOTT COUNTY...

1 NNW PRIOR LAKE (938 FT)(APRSWXNET) 145 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 WNW JORDAN (826 FT)(APRSWXNET) 204 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
1 NW SHAKOPEE (800 FT)(APRSWXNET) 320 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
2 WSW PRIOR LAKE (970 FT)(APRSWXNET) 216 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...STEARNS COUNTY...

4 ESE AVON (1200 FT)(APRSWXNET) 418 PM MAY 31 30 MPH
1 E SAINT JOSEPH (1106 FT)(APRSWXNET) 504 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 WSW PAYNESVILLE (1181 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 412 PM MAY 31 46 MPH
1 SE RICHMOND (1089 FT)(APRSWXNET) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 655 PM MAY 31 47 MPH
3 ESE BELGRADE (1249 FT)(MNDOT) 336 PM MAY 31 51 MPH
2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(MNDOT) 347 PM MAY 31 53 MPH

...STEELE COUNTY...

5 NNE ELLENDALE (1192 FT)(MNDOT) 128 PM MAY 31 42 MPH
3 NW OWATONNA (1148 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...SWIFT COUNTY...

2 W BENSON (1040 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 212 PM MAY 31 45 MPH
2 NE APPLETON (1020 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 51 MPH

...WASECA COUNTY...

3 WSW WASECA (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1240 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

2 N HASTINGS (2270 FT)(APRSWXNET) 255 PM MAY 31 30 MPH
2 E LAKE ELMO (935 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 755 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...WRIGHT COUNTY...

2 ESE BUFFALO (967 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 534 PM MAY 31 36 MPH
1 ENE MAPLE LAKE (1026 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 513 PM MAY 31 39 MPH
1 SE CLEARWATER (995 FT)(MNDOT) 422 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY...

4 SSW GRANITE FALLS (1046 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 213 PM MAY 31 48 MPH
1 NNE CANBY (1191 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 505 PM MAY 31 49 MPH
HANLEY FALLS (1068 FT)(MNDOT) 310 PM MAY 31 49 MPH

...WISCONSIN...

...EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

1 NW AUGUSTA (970 FT)(RAWS) 405 PM MAY 31 33 MPH
4 WNW FAIRCHILD (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 603 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...PIERCE COUNTY...

1 W BAY CITY (784 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...POLK COUNTY...

2 ESE SAINT CROIX FALLS (1190 FT)(WIDOT) 818 PM MAY 31 34 MPH
1 NNE FREDERIC (1273 FT)(APRSWXNET) 249 PM MAY 31 41 MPH
1 SSE OSCEOLA (902 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 815 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...ST. CROIX COUNTY...

5 NW RIVER FALLS (895 FT)(WIDOT) 1013 PM MAY 31 35 MPH
2 N NEW RICHMOND (997 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 235 PM MAY 31 40 MPH
1 WSW HUDSON (740 FT)(WIDOT) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA.

Next up: Warm front surges back north

A warm front will surge back north into Minnesota late tonight. As it does, "nocturnal" showers and T-Storms will likely develop along the front in southern Minnesota late tonight. Storms should be scattered, and some may contain hail and gusty winds overnight and early Thursday.

NAM model hints at scattered T-Storms overnight.

Heat builds Thursday & Friday:

Behind the front, a hot sticky tropical summer-like air mass will gurgle north into Minnesota. It's going to feel like summer by Thursday afternoon right through Friday.

The hot hazy air mass will give us our first shot at 90-degree + temps by late Thursday or Friday in southern Minnesota.

Models hinting at 90 by Friday!

The air mass will feature tropical humidity levels, with dew points approaching the sultry 70 degree mark late Thursday & Friday!

Dew points near 70 possible.

The best chance for severe storms appears to be in North Dakota and northern Minnesota Thursday, according to SPC.

SPC risk area Thursday.

Weekend cool front:

A cooler front will slide through early Saturday morning. It looks like the front could come through dry, ushering in a fresher air mass for the weekend. There will be a noticeable drop in humidity this weekend as dew points fall into the comfortable 50s.

Overall this could be a very nice early summer-like weekend, with just a chance of an isolated T-Storm Sunday. We'll have to keep an eye on that as the weekend unfolds.

Hurricane season now underway:

It's June 1st, the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The various forecasts call for above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic again this year. While seasonal hurricane forecasts get a lot of attention, you have to wonder at times... is there is really any value to seasonal hurricane forecasts?

There are two main reasons why I do not give credibility to seasonal hurricane forecasts.

1) Accuracy: There have been some dismal errors over the past few hurricane seasons.

An excerpt from my post last April:

Posted at 5:01 PM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

"The annual April seasonal hurricane forecast is out today from the folks at Colorado State University (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray. After the past few years of iffy forecast results, some are asking; where's the value in producing seasonal hurricane forecasts?

Looking back at the past 5 years of April CSU hurricane forecasts, the accuracy of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts is at best mixed. They had a very good year in 2008, but in every other year the forecasts have show an error rate of 33% or higher in either the number of named storms or hurricanes. In addition to badly missing the lowest number of hurricanes since 1997 in the 2009 forecast, CSU's April 2005 forecast of 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes completely missed the notion of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. In addition to the devastating Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005 produced a record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic. The CSU team under forecast both the number of named storms and hurricanes in 2005 by over 50%."

Not to pick on CSU, NOAA doesn't fare much better. Jeff Masters has the details.

"How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?

A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast (Figure 2). Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast."

2) Lack of landfall projections.

If you think predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is hard, try predicting the number that will make landfall! There were no land falling hurricanes in the USA in 2009 or 2010. Even with an active season last year, an accurate seasonal hurricane forecast had no value in predicting hurricane damage potential.

Short term hurricane forecasts have more value:

The real, demonstrable value lies in short term hurricane forecasts such as those issued by the National Hurricane Center. A 2004 paper in The Journal of Applied Meteorology estimates the value of existing 48-hour hurricane forecast information to oil and gas producers averaged roughly $8 million per year during the 1990s, which substantially exceeds the operating budget of the National Hurricane Center.

It appears clear that the real return on investment value in improving hurricane forecasts lies in the continued improvement in short term hurricane landfall and intensity forecasts. The seasonal hurricane forecasts make great headlines, but are they really worth the time, effort and investment in research dollars?

Mosquito Tracker:

Those first pesky "Minnesota State Birds" are biting at the weather lab. If you live in the metro you can see where the MMCD has treated mosquito breeding areas near your home.

Good luck!

PH

Nice Thursday, Saturday monsoon, 1st heat wave in sight?

Posted at 7:53 AM on May 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Rainfall, Springtime

You can't please all of the people all of the time, but chances are you'll find some weather you like in the next two weeks in Minnesota.

As Rod Serling used to say in the classic Twilight Zone series; "Submitted for your approval."

(Click images to enlarge)

Thursday: Weather perfection

It just doesn't get much better than this in Minnesota. Some of the best weather on the planet will hover over Minnesota today. Look for a mix of sunshine and a few clouds today. Cloud cover will be greatest in southern Minnesota today, and may nudge the metro from time to time.

High temperatures will make the lower 70s in most areas this afternoon, with cooler 50s near Lake Superior on the North Shore. Winds will be light from the east.

Friday & Saturday: Next rainmaker moves in

Our next weathermaker has been sitting over the Rockies all week. The "Omega Block" high pressure cell that has delivered dry sunny weather to Minnesota is breaking down. Low pressure will swirl east from the Rockies into Minnesota this weekend.

The first waves of rain (& some thunder) should arrive Friday. A few rounds of showers and embedded T-Storms will move through Saturday. At this time various forecast model scenarios for Saturday range from a round or two of rain & thunder, to an all-day washout.

Forecast Models: Wet start to the weekend

Rainfall Friday & Saturday could easily fall into the .50" to 1"+ category for many locations in Minnesota. Due to the convective nature of the precip, there could be some downpours with localized heavier rainfall totals. Some 2"+ totals can't be ruled out this weekend.

Temps may hover around 70 for much of Saturday, with 60s under some of the heavier shower bands.

Sure would be nice to get a dry weekend for baseball tournaments for once, but it just doesn't appear to be in the cards for Saturday.

Sunday: Drier day of the weekend?

By Sunday the core of the heavy rain producing part of the storm will shift east of Minnesota. We may mix in several hours of sunny to partly cloudy skies, but a few pop up showers can't be ruled out Sunday.

It may feel a bit more like summer Sunday PM, with highs in the upper 70s.

"Wurzer Weather" Ahead: First summery heat wave in sight?

My MPR colleague and Morning Edition Host Cathy Wurzer loves hot, summery weather. Cathy just might be a happy camper in about two weeks.

MPR's Cathy Wurzer

This may be going way out on the proverbial weather limb, but there may be a trend developing that could bring the first summer-like heat to Minnesota the first week of June. (Yes, can you believe June 1st is only 13 days away?!)

The latest GFS model trends indicate the possibility of a hot dome of high pressure developing in the east and shifting westward into the central USA in two weeks. This "Bermuda High" pattern is the mechanism which brings summertime heat to the eastern half of the good old USA.

GFS: "Bermuda type" high pressure pumps heat into the Midwest on June 2nd.

If the Bermuda High shifts west into the central U.S. a hot humid air mass will pump warm air and Gulf moisture north into the Upper Midwest.

It is early, but it's possible our first prolonged string of humid 80 degree plus weather is one the way the first week of June. If the pattern intensifies, we could even see our first 90s of the season in about two weeks.

We just turned off the heat. Is it already time to get the AC unit tuned up? Welcome to Minnesota.

Stay tuned.

Brightest 60 days ahead!

It's hard to fathom after what seemed like endless winter, but the longest daylight of the year is now upon us.

We hit 15 hours of daylight in the Twin Cities today. We will have at least 15 hours of daylight from now until July 24th. Check out this cool sunrise/sunset calendar to track our increasing daylight.

It's hard to believe but the summer solstice arrives in less than 5 weeks! What happened to spring in Minnesota?

April 2011: "Tornado Katrina"

Path of devestation in Alabama.

The Weather Channel's Stu Ostro has an interesting look at April's record tornado outbreaks. Did we just witness a "Tornado Katrina" last month?

"The ingredients were "textbook." I mean, literally what I learned from a textbook more than 30 years ago. The atmosphere was explosively unstable with summerlike heat and humidity, interacting with a classic wind shear setup as a strong jet stream and upper-level trough crashed overhead. Also, dry air aloft (dark red shades on the left image below) put a lid on things and allowed the energy to build up until it blew sky high.

Such a set of combustible ingredients, plus a remarkable number of supercells with hook echoes on radar and "ground-truth" observations of tornadoes, led Dr. Forbes and me to decide to up TWC's "TOR:CON" index to a 10 for northern Alabama, meaning a 100% chance of a tornado within 50 miles, the first time that's been done since the product was developed a couple of years ago."

Many of us who studied meteorology have always used the April 1974 "Super Outbreak" as the baseline for tornado extremes. Last month blew those numbers out of the water, and reminded us all that weather records are meant to be broken.

NOAA Geodetic Survey: Go West young man!

What do you think of as the center of the United States? New York? Chicago? Maybe L.A.?

Nope. Try Plato, Missouri.

That's the newest "center of national population" according to NOAA's Geodetic survey from 2010 U.S. Census data.

Plato is in the Ozarks in south central Missouri about 100 miles southwest of St. Louis.

The USA population center shifted about 20 miles further southwest since 2000. It has moved 873 miles southwest since 1790 when the first center was calculated to be just west of Baltimore, MD.

The population center has shifted steadily west over the past 200 years as you might expect. It was in southern Ohio in the 1850s, southern Indiana in 1900, and southern Illinois in the 1950s through the 1970s. The population center has resided in Missouri since 1980.

"Washington is not a place to live in. The rents are high, the food is bad, the dust is disgusting and the morals are deplorable. Go West, young man, go West and grow up with the country." -- Horace Greeley

PH

Comment on this post

L.A. sets all time record high at 113!

Posted at 5:10 PM on September 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

When it comes to weather extremes this year, the hits just keep on comin'.

In a year that has produced several all time high temperature records; a big one went down today. The temperature in Downtown Los Angeles reached 113 degrees Monday afternoon. This breaks the all time hottest temperature ever recorded in Los Angeles, and smashes the old daily record of 106 set in 1963.

Here's the statement form Los Angeles NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1230 PM PDT MON SEP 27 2010 .

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES REACHED 113 DEGREES AT 1215 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1877. THIS ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 106 SET IN 1963. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL GET HOTTER TODAY SO A RECORD TEMEPERATURE REPORT WILL BE ISSUED ONCE IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY HAS BEEN REACHED. $$

Afternoon temps show extreme heat in the southwest, and warmth extending east under a warm late season high pressure ridge.

2010 is turning out to be the year of heat extremes. As many as 17 countries have set all time temperatures records this year. Here's the list.

Record temperatures in 2010

Colombia, 24 January, 42.3C (108F), Puerto Salgar

PH

Minnesota Tornadoes: 145 and counting

Posted at 8:39 AM on August 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Minnesota continues to lead the nation in tornado reports this year. The latest tally from the Storm Prediction Center website is 145 tornado reports in Minnesota this year.

That number pretty much blows away states in tornado alley including Texas, which has logged 87 tornado reports this year. Here are the top 7 states in tornado reports from the SPC website as of today.

Minnesota 145
Texas 87
Kansas 80
Oklahoma 70
North Dakota 68
Colorado 66
Wisconsin 60

Keep in mind that the number of "tornado reports" usually drops by about a third after NWS verifies final numbers. Still, the state rankings should not change too much. That may mean Minnesota claims the crown as the center of tornado alley for the first time on record in 2010. The intensity of the fall severe weather season in the southern states will likely be the deciding factor.

Severe Risk Again:

A slow moving cold front will bring relief to the heat later this week, and will also trigger a possible round of severe storms in the eastern Dakotas today and eastern Minnesota late tonight and Tuesday.

The highest threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will be in northwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas today, but may shift east by Tuesday.

90s adding up:

One reason we've had so much severe weather this summer is that we've had plenty of heat and humidity surging north.

Today looks like day 17 of 90 degree heat in the Twin Cities this summer. We suffered through 94 on Sunday, and dew points surged into the upper 60s and low 70s again.

The average number of 90 degree days is 13 for the metro in a summer.

The Twin Cities NWS logs a weather stat called cooling degree days. The number represents the departure from an average daily temperature of 65 degrees, and gives you an idea of how much energy is required to cool your home.

Since June 1st the metro has logged 876 CDD. That's 364 CDD higher than last year's 512 to date.

Bottom line? You're using about 71% more energy this summer compared to last year to cool your home as you AC hums along.

Stay cool!

PH

Comment on this post

Heavy rain & thunder: Greenland ice & climate change

Posted at 8:26 AM on August 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Heat, Severe weather

How do you spell relief?

R-A-I-N.

That's our best hope today for temporarily breaking the back of our August heat wave.

A warm front gurgling north out of Iowa today is pushing scattered rain into southern Minnesota. The morning showers and embedded thunder are mostly garden variety summer showers with locally heavy downpours.

Update 10:15pm:

The Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven reports 1.25" of rain in the past hour. Rain was torrential, and came with wind gusts to at least 45mph.

An urban flood advisory has been issued for the Twin Cities metro for a quick shot of 1" to 2" of rain. Expect localized street flooding with torrential downpours as storms pass through late morning into midday. Gusty winds to 45 mph will also accompany storms.

Severe weather may increase later this afternoon and tonight.

The threat for severe storms will increase by late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlights some uncertainty in the forecast, but hints at the potential for a few storms to reach severe criteria later today. Keep in mind the threshold for a severe thunderstorms is winds of at least 58mph and or 1" diameter hail.

The highest threat for sever weather appears to be in southwest and south central Minnesota today.

Heavy rain possible:

The main feature of tonight's weather system may be heavy rain. The forecast models ar cranking out anywhere from .50" to well over an inch of rain through Wednesday morning. Another timely free watering is on the way for gardens, lawns and farm fields in Minnesota which are set to deliver record crop numbers this year.

August heat wave:

One step outside and you know it's been stiflingly hot this month. You can barely catch a breath with Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels.

After enduring our hottest day so far this year on Sunday with a blazing 96 degrees in the metro, Monday threw a 95 up on the board Monday. The numbers tell the story this month.

August temps so far: +7.4 degrees
4 days at or above 90 (out of 9 so far in August)
12 days at or above 90 this year (annual average is 13, and we will likely exceed that number this week)

Look for at least 2 more 90 degree days this week before a cold front sweeps away the heat and humidity by Saturday bringing welcome relief.

2010: Year of the tornado:

By my count and Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climatology office, we've seen about 47 tornadoes skip across Minnesota this year. That's nearly twice the long term annual average of about 25, and even higher than the more recent decadal average of around 40. It appears the trend is for tornado alley to be shifting north, and Minnesota has been ground zero for twisters this year.

Massive Greenland ice chunk breaks off:

No doubt you've heard about the massive chunk of glacial ice that broke off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier this past week. Check out these amazing numbers.

-The ice chunk is 4 times the size of Manhattan Island

-The calved glacier is 600 feet thick (now that's an ice cube)

-This is the largest Arctic iceberg to break off in 48 years, since 1962

So is it climate change?

According to Dr. Jay Zwally of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...yes. Dr. Zwally has spent a career studying glaciers and climate, and says this is "100%" attributable to climate change. The Arctic is warming at a rate 3 to 4 times faster than the lower altitudes, and this is contributing to massive loss of glacial and sea ice in the Arctic regions.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Other scientists are divided on the issue.

I've always said you can't use one year or one event as evidence of global climate change. But consider the evidence for 2010, which continues the long term trend of an overheated planet.

-2010 is the hottest year on record so far
-At least 7 countries have set new all time record highs this year
-Record heat, record fires and thick smoke choking Moscow and Russia
-Largest iceberg in 48 years breaks off from Greenland
-The past decade is the hottest on record
-The 2000s were hotter that the 1990s, which were hotter than the 1980s, which were hotter than the 1970s.

This is either the mother of all coincidences, or this planet is on course for even more heat and rapid earth changes over the next 10 years.

PH

Comment on this post

Heat, humidity and a few (severe?) weekend storms

Posted at 5:08 PM on August 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Rainfall, Summer

Our fresh Canadian air mass was a beautiful respite from the sticky summer of 2010. As a warm front gurgles north this weekend, humidity, heat and (a few severe) storms are back.

Expect a little bit of everything this weekend.

Let's break down the weekend forecast one day at a time.

Friday night:

Most of Minnesota will enjoy a lovely evening with gradually rising humidity and gentle breezes. There will be a few scattered showers and T-Storms in far southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor. Look for overnight lows in the 40s north, 50s central and 60s south.

Saturday morning will start cool in northeast Minnesota.

Saturday:

Heat and humidity will bubble back north Saturday as a warm front moves north. Thunderstorms will increase in the eastern Dakotas, southern and western Minnesota as the day wears on.

The atmosphere overhead will be unstable enough that a storm could pop up anytime Saturday, but it looks like the most organized T-Storm clusters will move from western Minnesota early Saturday toward the Twin Cites metro by Saturday evening and into Saturday night.

Highs will be mostly in the 80s. Winds south 5-15 mph.

There is a slight risk that some of the storms could be severe. The SPC has placed much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe storms Saturday.

If severe weather occurs, the primary threat appears to be high winds and hail. A few isolated tornadoes are possible, but the atmosphere lacks widespread strong low level wind shear or "spin" to support large, long lived monster tornadoes. Translation? Maybe a spotty tornado or two but probably no big time June 17th style tornado outbreak.

Most areas may see between a thrid and three quarters of an inch of rain. A few of the storms could be "heavy rainers." There will be enough juice in the atmosphere to produce locally heavy rainfall over an inch if storms stall out in some areas.

Sunday:

A few storms may linger in eastern Minnesota Sunday morning. It looks like the warm front will then move north, which puts most of Minnesota into the hot sticky tropical air mass. Look for dew points to bubble into the sticky 70s again by Sunday. Temperatures should soar into the 90s again in much of southern Minnesota.

It looks like Sunday afternoon and evening may be (mostly) storm free. The heat and humidity will have air conditioners humming once again, and your favorite lake, beach or Dairy Queen will do a brisk business.

Enjoy a summer like weekend, but keep an eye out fro storms especially Saturday and Saturday night.

PH

Comment on this post

Aurora Watch

Posted at 8:50 AM on August 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Heat, Hurricanes

Late night star gazers may get a rare treat tonight.

A solar flare and significant coronal mass ejection (CME) is sending a burst of solar energy toward earth. The interaction with the earth's magnetosphere may produce auroras in the coming nights at high latitudes.

It is possible that auroras may be visible as far south as Minnesota. Keep an eye on the northern sky this week.

Welcome to the jungle.

Temperatures and humidity today will make it feel like the Amazon Jungle today in Minnesota. Temperatures will soar this afternoon to 90 degrees in much of southern Minnesota. Combine that reading with oppressive dew points in the 70s and you get heat indices (feels like) temperatures of 100.

Take it easy in the heat today; it can sneak up on you.

Steamy July:

Minnesota has been fortunate so far this summer. A nasty heat wave has been persistent in the central and southern USA with temperatures frequently topping 100.

Still, July made a mark in Minnesota. The average monthly temperature was 76.3 degrees. That's 3.1 degrees above average for the month, and a full 6.3 degrees warmer than last July!

July also marks the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota.

Rainfall at Twin Cities Airport was 3.03" in July. That's an inch beow average. But just to show all weather (and especially rainfall) is local, Eau Claire got doused with 7.66" of rain last month. That marks the 4th wettest July on Record for Eau Claire.

Tropical Storm Colin:

We have the 3rd named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Colin has 40 mph winds, and is still about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Various forecast models take Colin to a point southeast of the Carolina Coast in about 5 days. It's too early to tell if Colin will become a threat to the eastern U.S.

PH

Storms fade: Nicer Wednesday

Posted at 3:36 PM on July 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Update 10PM:

Possible injuries at Turtle Flambeau Flowage northeast of Park Falls, WI.

DLH: Turtle Flambeau Flowage [Iron Co, WI] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:40 PM CDT -- *** 6 inj *** preliminary report. rescues in progress on the islands.

Storms have passed with little damage in the area. Good news.

Of course all weather is local. Check out the photo below. Lightning hit a tree 100 yards from the weather lab. The tree split and fell across the road, taking a power pole and streetlight down, and taking out power to the Huttner Weather Lab at around 8pm Tuesday evening.

Update 7:40pm:

Some wind damage with storms near Stacy and in western Wisconsin, but so far storms are relatively tame in the metro.

MPX: Balsam Lake [Polk Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:20 PM CDT -- signs down. garage damaged. trees up to 5 inches in diameter downed in balsam lake area. time estimated.

MPX: 4 Wnw Stacy [Isanti Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:56 PM CDT -- tree branches up to 5 inches in diameter down

MPX: 7 N Range [Polk Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:25 PM CDT -- large pines trees toppled.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
WESTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN DUNN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 727 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARRONETT TO RANGE TO OSCEOLA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. AT 730 PM LARGE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR
BALSAM LAKE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
AMERY...
RICE LAKE...
DERONDA...
TURTLE LAKE...
COMSTOCK...
BARRONETT...
CUMBERLAND...
STAR PRAIRIE...
CLEAR LAKE...
DEER PARK...
PRAIRIE FARM...
HAUGEN...

Update: 9:00 pm:

The National Weather Service has told Skywarn that severe weather threat has diminished.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 11 p.m.

Update: 8:34 pm:

From MPR News reporter Jess Mador: Xcel Energy is reporting a total of about 1,000 customers lost power across the seven-county metro area. Xcel has about 1 million customers in the metro. An Xcel spokeswoman says so far the system has not suffered much damage from tonight's storm.

Update 8:31 pm:

If the storm has passed you, does it feel a little cooler?

From Twitter: @crossons Temp dropped 20 degrees after intense wind and rain blew thru Roseville. Now strange yellow sunset sky. #mnstorms

Update 8:26 pm:

A trained skywarn spotter says a wall cloud was briefly spotted near downtown Rosemount. No funnel reported.

Update 8:12 pm:

No severe thunderstorm weather warnings in Minnesota at the moment, and tornado watches are expiring as the storm front moves to the southeast.

It's gotten really dark here at MPR HQ in St. Paul; lots of lightning in the air, too.

Little in the way of damage reports still in Minnesota.

Western Wisconsin is seeing the effects of some strong winds...

A garage was damaged in Polk, Wis. where 'large pine trees' were also toppled. Seven-inch-diameter trees were reported blown down in Barron, Wis.

Update 8:04pm:

Online news producer Than Tibbetts here. Paul Huttner reports that he's lost power in the Huttner Weatherlab after a lighting strike in his neighborhood.

Update 7:46pm:

A trained spotter reports 2 inches of rain falling in less than an hour near Hinckley in Pine County.

On twitter, @ironiridis shares a picture of the approaching storm clouds in the western metro.

Update 7:10pm:

SPC confirms my thinking on the transition to straight line winds in the metro.

THOUGH PRIMARY THREAT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND ALONG THE LINE ACROSS MN INTO NWRN
WI...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DLH: Askov [Pine Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.71 INCH at 07:05 PM CDT -- fell in the last 2 hours

MPX: Richmond [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:55 PM CDT -- 8 inch diameter tree down. time estimated.

Update 6:45pm:

MPX: 3 Nw St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M71.00 MPH at 06:11 PM CDT -- measured by automated sensor kmnstcl06 near veterans golf course.

Storms are moving into the north and northwest metro though 7pm. Expect storms in the NW metro by 7pm, and most of the metro between 8pm and 10pm this evening.

The good news so far is there are no reports of confirmed tornado touchdowns. The system is evolving into a more linear system, which tends to produce (still potentially damaging) straight line winds.

These storms have a history of heavy rains, hail and wind gusts between 50mph and 71mph.

Be alert for warnings in the metro through 10pm tonight.

PH

Update 6pm:

DLH: 6 W Trego [Washburn Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:34 PM CDT -- several trees down 6 inches in diameter

MPX: 1 Ssw St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M59.00 MPH at 06:18 PM CDT --

MPX: 5 E St Cloud [Sherburne Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M52 MPH at 06:08 PM CDT -- measured at st cloud airport.

DLH: High Bridge [Ashland Co, WI] amateur radio reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 06:19 PM CDT --

MPX: 3 Ese Belgrade [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M56 MPH at 05:56 PM CDT -- measured at mndot automated weather site on hwy 55 /mile post 98/ by georgeville.

Storms now moving into the St. Cloud area. Expect torrential rains and possible damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat in and near St. Cloud through 7pm.

Line of storms runs along Highway 23 from Willmar through St. Cloud toward Hinckley.

Latest warnings here.

Update 5:36pm:

FGF: Perham [Otter Tail Co, MN] public reports FLASH FLOOD at 03:30 PM CDT -- 4.25 inches of rain fell which caused street flooding.

MPX: 2 Se Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M67 MPH at 05:27 PM CDT -- measured at mndot automated station at mile post 128.

DLH: Maple [Douglas Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:58 PM CDT -- several power lines down.

Possible tornadic circulations with intense line of storms along Highway 23 from near Sandstone and Finlayson east into northwest Wisconsin.

Be prepared for possible damaging winds in these areas.

Update 5:16 pm:

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Benton, Morrison, Stearns [MN] till 6:00 PM CDT ...AT 520 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD NEAR ELMDALE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DLH: 2 N Aitkin [Aitkin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:20 PM CDT -- trees down near aiktin with reported wind gust of 50 mph.

Tornado warning now includes Stearns County.

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Benton, Morrison, Stearns [MN] till 6:00 PM CDT ...* AT 512 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES NORTH OF UPSALA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNC009-041-065-095-097-121-145-153-280100-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FA.Y.0026.100727T2208Z-100728T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TODD MN-MORRISON MN-MILLE LACS MN-KANABEC MN-DOUGLAS MN-STEARNS MN-
POPE MN-BENTON MN-
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
KANABEC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MILLE LACS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
POPE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
TODD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ONAMIA ON WEST THROUGH
LITTLE FALLS...LONG PRAIRIE AND ALEXANDRIA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL TRAIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALEXANDRIA...GLENWOOD...LITTLE FALLS...LONG PRAIRIE...
MILACA...MORA...PRINCETON...ST CLOUD...ALBANY...AVON...BAYVIEW...
BELGRADE...BOWLES...BRANDON...BROWERVILLE...BUCKMAN...CARLOS...
CLARISSA...CLOTHO...COLD SPRING...COLLEGEVILLE...CUSHING...EAGLE
BEND...ELMDALE...ELROSA...EVANSVILLE...FARMING...FOLEY...FORADA AND
FORESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

Update 5pm:

Strongest storms now stretch from near Ortonville through Alex, Little Falls, Mille Lacs and toward Duluth. No tornadoes or damage reports so far.

PH

MPX: Alexandria [Douglas Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M53 MPH at 04:55 PM CDT -- measured at alexandria airport

(click for bigger image)

Update 4:20pm:

FGF: 1 W Hoffman [Grant Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of nickel size (E0.88 INCH) at 04:29 PM CDT --

FGF: 5 E Barrett [Grant Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 04:29 PM CDT --

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Douglas, Pope, Stevens [MN] till 5:00 PM CDT ...* AT 417 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 6 MILES NORTH OF DONNELLY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

Update 4:05pm:

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Grant, Otter Tail [MN] till 5:00 PM CDT ...* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HERMAN...OR 33 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINTAH.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch until 11pm tonight for much of central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The watch includes the Twin Cities metro.

The increasing heat and humidity will continue to destabilize the atmosphere this evening over southern Minnesota. A "cap" or layer of warm air around 5,000 feet will keep a lid on storms for a while, but it appears storms will blow as we head into the evening hours along the cold front, and move into northern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota later this evening.

There is enough rotation and directional wind shear in the atmosphere that a few of the storms could produce tornadoes, especially from the metro east into Wisconsin.

There is also the possibility of the "usual" damaging winds and hail with storms that do develop this evening.

Intense Heat:

Welcome to the jungle.

Temperature and humidity in much of Minnesota is at Amazon Jungle levels today. Temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s to as high as 82 in St. James have pushed the heat index to over 100 degrees in much of southern Minnesota.

The all time record dew point for Minnesota is 86 degrees in July of 2005 set in St. James and Pipestone.

At 3pm the heat index (or feels like temperature) was a barbaric 114 degrees in St. James!

Here are some other readings as of 3pm:

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. N/A MEANS
CURRENT SKY AND/OR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

MNZ060>063-068>070-272100-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES MOSUNNY 91 74 57 S13 29.82F HX 100
ST PAUL SUNNY 90 76 63 S10 29.81F HX 101
CRYSTAL SUNNY 92 74 55 S10G21 29.79F HX 101
BLAINE PTSUNNY 90 75 62 S13G21 29.81F HX 100
EDEN PRAIRIE MOSUNNY 93 74 53 S10G22 29.81F HX 103
LAKEVILLE SUNNY 88 77 70 S9 29.84S HX 100
SOUTH ST PAUL SUNNY 91 73 56 S12 29.82F HX 99
LAKE ELMO FAIR 90 73 58 S12 29.83F HX 98

APPLETON SUNNY 90 79 70 S7 29.75F HX 105
BENSON MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW14G20 29.79F HX 102
MONTEVIDEO SUNNY 90 79 70 SW13G20 29.75S HX 105
GRANITE FALLS MOSUNNY 91 74 57 S15G21 29.78F HX 101
CANBY MOSUNNY 93 73 51 S9G16 29.78S HX 101
MARSHALL SUNNY 90 73 58 SW18 29.80F HX 98
REDWOOD FALLS SUNNY 93 74 53 S16G26 29.79F HX 103
MANKATO SUNNY 90 77 66 SW14G22 29.84S HX 102
NEW ULM SUNNY 90 73 58 S16 29.83S HX 98
ST JAMES SUNNY 91 82 75 S16 29.86S HX 114
FAIRMONT SUNNY 90 75 62 SW15G21 29.90F HX 100

Stay cool, and stay tuned for the possibility of storms in the metro alter this evening. The best window for storms in the metro still appears to be anytime after 8pm and through midnight.

PH

Comment on this post

Heat Advisory: Storms north today, south tonight

Posted at 8:31 AM on July 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

We're on track for our expected heat and storms around Minnesota today.

Round one of storms rumbled through central Minnesota early this morning with downpours, lightning, gusty winds and hail, but little if any damage according to storms reports so far. A few clouds and renegade showers & T-Storms even popped up around the metro as a warm front pushed through this morning.

Storms and clouds cover the northern half on Minnesota this morning on GOES 1km visible image.

The warm front marks the leading edge a hot sticky air mass that features dew points in the 70s. As skies tend to clear in parts of southern Minnesota and the metro today, temperatures will shoot up into the 90s. We have a shot at the hottest day of the year if the mercury makes a run at 96 today in the metro. If we get enough sun, that could still happen.

A heat advisory is in effect today for the southern third of Minnesota, including the metro area. The combination of temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s will push the heat index over 100 in many areas today.

Main event tonight:

Scattered storms will rumble across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin today, but it still appears the main event for southern Minnesota will happen tonight. A cold front will cut into the hot humid air mass, triggering new development west and north of the metro later this afternoon and into the evening.

We could get a stray thunderstorm this afternoon, but it still looks like we're on track for the main batch of storms in the metro between 7pm and midnight. The best chance of a slow moving line of storms moving into the metro appears to be between 8pm and 10pm. We'll get another model run this morning that may shed some light on timing, but it will be best to keep an eye on the sky today and especially this evening.

Much of Minnesota could get another good soaker, with widespread .50" to 1" rainfall totals possible through tonight.

The best chances for severe weather will be in the form of damaging winds and large hail, but SPC forecasts about a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of the metro late this afternoon or this evening.

Here are some places to keep track of unfolding weather today in Minnesota.
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Duluth radar loop
-Storm Prediction Center
-Twin Cities NWS

PH

Comment on this post

Forecast: Tuesday heat and severe threat

Posted at 4:26 PM on July 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Get ready for a wild weather Tuesday.

Tuesday will feature excessive heat in much of southern Minnesota, and the threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms statewide.

Let's start with the heat.

A hot, sticky air mass is surging north from Nebraska and Kansas. Temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s from Kansas into the Dakotas and eastern Montana Monday. The "thermal ridge" or heat core is likely to shift east and be in place right over southern Minnesota during the day Tuesday.

(Click for bigger image)

One forecast technique yields high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities Tuesday!

I expect many locations will hit 94 to 96 Tuesday, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a 100 degree reading somewhere in the southern half of Minnesota Tuesday around 5pm.

It's the heat AND the humidity!

The one day heat wave will come with dangerous humidity levels. Dew points will surge toward 70 degrees.

Some of the models hint at dewpoints approaching 75 degrees by Tuesday evening in the metro! That's Amazon Jungle humidity folks. We generally feel that level of moisture in Minnesota only once or twice a year.

Forecast modles push dew points into the oppressive 70s Tuesday. Note the delightful drop into the 50s by mid week!

We could see some areas hit what I call the 95/75 danger zone. That's a temperature of 95 degrees with dew point of 75. That yields an oppressive heat index of 107 degrees. Minnesotans (or anybody else for that matter) are generally not equipped to cope with that intense level of heat and humidity. 95/75 is a rare combination in Minnesota.

Take care tomorrow as temperatures and humidity rise to rain forest levels.

Severe threat:

A Canadian cold front will bring welcome relief with cooler temps and much lower humidity by Wednesday. It will also be the trigger for strong to severe storms as it slices through the steamy unstable air mass over Minnesota Tuesday.

Storms will favor the northern half of Minnesota during the day Tuesday, and then spread south into southern Minnesota Tuesday evening and overnight. I'll be scanning new forecast model runs overnight to update timing, but right now looks like the highest probability window for severe storms in the metro will be between 7pm Tuesday evening and 1am Wednesday morning.

The potential is there for large "bow echoes" to develop Tuesday in Minnesota. These lines of storms can cause widespread straight line wind damage. Also, several factors are coming together to spawn a few big rotating supercell thunderstorms at the onset of Tuesday's outbreak. The combination of heat, moisture and directional wind shear (winds verring from south to WNW with height) may cause storms to rotate. These storms have the potential to produce (hopefully only a few) tornadoes.

SPC has "risked" much of Minnesota Tuesday. Be alert for severe weather watches and warnings as the storms approach.

Stay cool and keep an eye out for storms Tuesday!

PH

Dog Days: Steamy & stormy

Posted at 8:30 AM on July 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Heat, Severe weather

Welcome to July in Minnesota.

We complain all year that it's too cold, too windy, too this, too that. Here it is. You want 80? Gotcha covered. You want humidity? Can do. Sweltering 90s and big boomers? On the way.

I remember when we were kids (a loooong time ago!) in Minnesota and in January somebody would always say; "Boy I wish it was hot like July for just one day!" Then in July....we'd wish it was like fall again.

It looks like many weather wishes and fantasies will come true this week. We'll see perfect summer days, stifling heat and humidity, big storms and a cool almost "fallish" breeze by mid-week.

Here's the outlook:

Monday: Summer's finest. Mostly sunny warm and increasingly humid. Dew points climbing through the 60s. Spotty thunderstorms far west. Highs near 88 metro, 80 far north. Wind S 5-15 mph.

Tuesday: Uncomfortably hot & humid! Highs 94 to 97 south, including the metro. Dew points near 70. Strong to severe T-Storms moving north (AM & daytime) to south (late PM & evening). Wind south 10-20 mph.

Wednesday & Thursday:

Really nice! Noticeable drop in humidity with dew points falling into the upper 50s. Highs near 80 south, 70s north. Wind NW 10-20mph Wednesday, 5-10mph Thursday.

Friday into the weekend: Muggy again with increasing chances for thunder. Highs in the 80s.

July 2010: Warm again

July temperatures are running 3.4 degrees above average as we enter the last week of the month. This is the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota this year.

We've had 4 days at or above 90 degrees this month, with a total of 7 days this year of 90-plus. The average number of 90 degree days for the summer is about 13 days.

One day heat wave:

Day #8 of 90 degree weather will occur Tuesday as heat and humidity will surges north ahead of an advancing cold front. Some forecasting techniques yield a high temperature of between 95 and 97 degrees Tuesday from the metro south. Dew points will approach 70, so you'll feel like you're swimming in a free sauna. Heat indices should climb above 100 Tuesday.

Severe threat:

As the cold front pushes south Tuesday, severe storms will again rumble across the state. Unlike the last few outbreaks, these storms will come from the northwest and work south.

SPC has a slight risk for storms in Minnesota. It looks like storms will fire in northern Minnesota during the day, and rumble into the southern half of the state later in the afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging wind and hail, but there could be a few tornadoes as the storms get going Tuesday PM.

Enjoy the last week of July!

PH

Comment on this post

Severe threat increases

Posted at 8:44 AM on July 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Baseball, Heat, Severe weather

Keep an eye on the sky the next 36 hours in the Upper Midwest. Several ingredients are coming together for what could be a significant outbreak of severe weather.

At least two waves of severe (and possible tornadic) storms may rumble across the upper Midwest by Wednesday evening. After a lead batch of mostly non-severe showers and T-Storms today in the eastern Dakotas, a second wave of more potent storms should develop this afternoon in the central Dakotas and come racing east into Minnesota tonight. That wave may form an MCS, or mesoscale convective system that may race east with bow echoes and the potential for damaging winds.

The favored locations for storms Wednesday will shift east, the question is how far. If debris from tonight's MCS hangs over eastern Minnesota tomorrow and the front slides past the Twin Cities, the storms may develop over Wisconsin. If not, they could blow right over the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Stay tuned to your favorite severe weather sources through Wednesday for a very changeable forecast scenario.

Major Midwest heat wave next week?

All signs point to the potential for a major Midwest heat wave next week. The Bermuda High, a strong ridge of high pressure looks like it will set up shop over the central USA and amplify starting about next Tuesday.

If the forecast models are right, the central USA could see several days...maybe two weeks of searing heat and humidity. Places like Kansas City, St, Louis, Des Moines and Chicago have the potential to reach 100 degrees.

Minnesota looks to lie on the northern edge of the heat wave. We could see more than a a week of highs well into the 90s, with dew points in the tropical 70s. That's a dangerous level of heat and humidity, and the long duration could become a major news story in the latter half of July.

Get your air conditioner tuned up and get ready for a blast of heat starting next week.

Beautiful Red Wing:

The Huttner Weather Lab had the pleasure of making the trip to beautiful Red Wing last evening for my son's playoff baseball game. Even as a native Minnesotan, I had never made the trip to Red Wing, and I'm glad I did. The town is absolutely lovely with the bluffs and river scenery.

Downtown Red Wing street scene.
(Photos by Paul Huttner. click for bigger images)

Mississippi River in Red Wing.

Red Wing is known for Red Wing Shoes and Red Wing pottery among other things.

Closer look at the bluff at the east end of town.

The historic St. James Hotel overlooks the Mississippi River.

The drive from the Twin Cities is equally wonderful with hills, open vistas and fertile colorful fields along the way. The landscape near the town of Miesville is particularly beautiful. And the ball park for the Miesville Mudhens is visible as you pass through town.

Oh yes, and my son's 14 year old Minnetonka travelling baseball team won the game 15-4. The whole team played great and our son Luke started the game and was the winning pitcher so congrats to the team on a great performance!

PH (proud baseball dad!)

Comment on this post

Forecast: Rain chances increase

Posted at 8:25 AM on July 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Hurricanes, Rainfall

It may feel like the Amazon jungle around here one more time today.

Pooling surface moisture and an approaching cool front may trigger scattered showers and tropical downpours again this afternoon and evening in the southeast half of Minnesota.

(click for bigger image)

If the storms get going, some of the rainfall could be locally heavy.

NAM 84 hour rainfall shows 1" to 2" rainfall "bull's eye" right over Twin Cities metro.

Rainfall may exceed 1" in some areas. (click for bigger image)

Tropical dew point levels in the upper 60s and low 70s have been pooling down in Iowa. That moisture may get drawn north ahead of the front later today. Keep an eye out for developing showers and T-Storms anytime after 3pm and into tonight.

As the cool front sweeps through Thursday, a much drier air mass will bring an end to shower chances for a few days and usher in a much more comfortable less humid air mass. You can probably give the air conditioner a rest after today.

Forecast models indicate dew points falling into the comfortable 50s later this week.

Brewing Bonnie?

Watchful eyes are on a developing tropical wave moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico today. NHC says there is a 40% chance that the wave may become Tropical Storm Bonnie before landfall near the Texas Mexico border Thursday.

East Coast Heat Wave Day 2:

Many locations along the eastern seaboard will hit 100 again today. All six observing sites in the New York City area broke records Tuesday with Central Park sweltering at 103 degrees.

We can be grateful for some of the best (and most comfortable) weather on the planet the next few days.

PH

Comment on this post

Heat warning expires for Twin Cities

Posted at 9:10 PM on May 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Record

Update 9pm:

The excessive heat warning expired at 9pm. Several record highs were set today including 95 in the metro (previous record was 88 set in 1875) and 92 in Eau Claire.

More on record highs later.

Storms will continue to rumble in the Dakotas and far northwest Minnesota overnight. There have been some reports of severe weather and flooding.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
836 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W
05/24/2010 PENNINGTON MN PUBLIC

FIELDS UNDER WATER IN AND AROUND THE GREATER THIEF RIVER
FALLS AREA.

A few storms could approach western Minnesota overnight.

PH

Here's one you don't see in May too often.

The Twin Cities NWS has issued an excessive heat warning today for the Twin Cities metro area. The warning includes Hennepin and Ramsey counties, basically the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro.

A combination of record heat and high humidity will produce heat indexes of between 95 and 100 degrees this afternoon in the metro. The heat index is what it feels like on your body when you factor temperature and humidity and the body's ability to cool through evaporation.

Based on the 10-year average from 1994 to 2003, excessive heat claimed 237 lives each year. By contrast, floods killed 84; tornadoes, 58; lightning, 63; and hurricanes, 18.

Record breaker:

Today's likely high in the 90s will smash the previous record of 88 degrees at Twin Cities Airport set in 1875. One forecast technique yields temperatures as hot as 95 to 96 degrees for the metro and parts of southern Minnesota. Don't be surprised to see a few bank thermometers blinking 96 today. Numerous high temperature records will likely be set this afternoon in Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Midwest.

Thunder threat:

The atmosphere is extremely unstable today with all the warm air near the surface. There is also a "cap" or warm layer aloft in southern Minnesota that may inhibit T-Storms, but thunder is likely in the northern half of Minnesota and in the Dakotas today closer to cool air aloft. There is a risk for any storms that get going to morph into severe storms with heavy flooding downpours, large hail and damaging winds.

How do you spell relief?

A good friend of mine, Richard Calvelli passed away recently in Oro Valley, Arizona. Richard was an ad executive with Saatchi & Saatchi in New York and L.A. for over 25 years. Think Mad Men. Richard is credited with writing such classic ad phrases as "I love what you do for me, Toyota" and "How do you spell relief? R-O-L-A-I-D-S." Richard was one of those rare talents, and such a kind and caring person. Our families remain very close, and his son is the same age as our son, both high school freshmen.

We'll spell relief this week in the form of a cold front which will push a cooler drier Canadian air mass into Minnesota Wednesday. The front will drop temperatures from the sweltering 90s into the low 80s by week's end. Dew points will fall from near 70 to the comfortable upper 40s by Friday.

Thank you members!

It was a joy to meet so many of you at our MPR member event Sunday! A whopping 1,800 of you wonderful, curious, intelligent MPR member supporters showed up at 7th & Cedar for the event Sunday. My voice is a little hoarse from talking to so many of you, but I am blown away by your support for what we do at MPR and your thoughtful insightful questions. Thanks for your support!

Stay cool today and Tuesday. And keep a weather eye on the sky.

PH

Comment on this post

Atmospheric Vacation

Posted at 8:59 AM on May 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Remote sensing

Get ready to take an atmospheric vacation. Only this time the warm tropical breezes are coming to Minnesota.

We're changing air masses in Minnesota. Today's warm but dry air mass is about to be replaced by a borderline hot, sticky tropical air mass directly from the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Think car ride form New Mexico to New Orleans and you get the picture.

A placid Lake Superior in Duluth Thursday morning.
(Courtesy Lake Superior Marine Museum Association Webcam.)

Temperatures by Sunday may approach record levels in southern Minnesota. The record high for Twin Cities Airport both Sunday and Monday is 88 degrees. It appears we'll have a shot at tying or exceeding records both days.

It's not the heat...

The real star of this weather forecast will be a surge of tropical summer like moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points may approach 70 degrees by Sunday. That's July-like humidity levels folks. You'll start to notice the humidity climbing Saturday, and you'll really feel it by Sunday afternoon.

Dew points will climb towards 70 degrees Sunday. (click for bigger image)

It looks like temperatures will climb above 85 degrees for a string of days starting on Sunday. That's good news for those who want our area lakes to warm up (the weather lab skiff measured a hypothermic 59 degree water temperature this week on Lake Minnetonka) in time for the big Memorial Day weekend. Not so good for those who had hoped to give the air conditioners a rest until late June or July. Humidity levels will make air conditioners hum and energy demand soar by Sunday PM.

Temperatures will take a run at 85 to 90 degrees by Sunday PM.

It's interesting to note that power utilities like XCEL Energy plan days or weeks ahead for spikes in demand created by hot weather. Most big utility companies use private meteorologists to plan daily and weekly demand through "load forecasts." I used to work in that end of the weather biz back in the day in Chicago. Check out the range of services provided by my former employer Weather Command based in the Chicago area.

Working in so called "operational meteorology" when I was a young weather buck was extremely challenging and precise. For me it was like meteorological boot camp. The techniques I learned there from the excellent staff are valuable to me as a weather forecaster to this day. I am grateful to so many who helped shape my forecasting skills that led me to what has become a long and fruitful career as a meteorologist.

Rain chances increase:

With the increase in humidity and temperature comes the chance of rain and thunder. A minor low pressure system will sideswipe southern Minnesota Friday, bringing a chance of a few showers and a T-Storm from Duluth to the metro and Rochester and Eau Claire. Rainfall amounts generally look light with this system, most areas may see between .10" and .25" of rain Friday.

A second wave could bring heavier tropical downpours early next week.

Rain chances increase Friday and early next week.

The view from space:

I've posted a few amazing satellite images of the Gulf oil spill the past few days. Nasa's MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ) satellite orbits the earth from pole to pole every day. The MODIS Rapid Response System was developed to provide daily satellite images of the Earth's landmasses in near real time.

It's amazing what you can see form space at in these high resolution images.

Early in the dry season in Democratic Republic of Congo the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image on May 13, 2010. MODIS detects hundreds of active fires (location marked in red) in southern Democratic Republic of Congo and northeastern Angola, a sign that the agricultural burning season was in full swing.

Dust plumes blow off the coast of Libya and over the Mediterranean Sea in mid-May 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on May 13, 2010. Thick dust blows northward off the African coast, past the island of Kriti (Crete), and toward Peloponnisos (Peloponnese). In places, the dust is thick enough to completely hide the land or sea surface below.

Look up and smile next time you see one of those faint red lights passing by in the night overhead. You never know who's watching!

PH

Comment on this post

May heat wave?

Posted at 8:52 AM on May 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

Remember that air conditioner that sat idle for the last 9 months? It may be time to get a tune up.

The medium range forecast models are advertising a building ridge of high pressure in the Great Lakes region by this weekend. There are signs the pattern will bring much warmer weather to Minnesota, and it could last through next week.

CPC 6-10 day outlook highlights above average temperature probability in the Great Lakes.

The magnitude of this may not be the heat wave we expect in mid-summer, but this may get your attention next week. Minnesotans are famous for wishing for warmer weather this time of year, and then thinking twice about it when temperatures hit 90.

Forecast models pushing temps toward 90 by next week.

Forecast models often underestimate developing temperature extremes. There is a component to many models that's tied to climate. That means, they're reluctant to stray too far from what is average at any time of the year. It will be interesting to se if this is the case this time.

Indications are we could hit 90 in the Twin Cities next week. The average high for next week in the metro is 74, so that would put temperatures about 15 degrees above average next week.

Open Gulf: Higher humidity

A persistent southerly flow will send a sticky humid air mass oozing north next week. Dew points have been in the very comfortable 30s and 40s this week. It looks like they will soar into the 60s and even push toward a tropical feeling 70 degrees next week.

The Twin Cities recorded only six 90 degree days last year. The average is about 13 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro. One year ago today the temperature soared to 97 degrees in the Twin Cities, the hottest day last year. The last time we hit 90 was on August 14th.

Our early spring continues to push temperatures well ahead of the calendar averages this year. Get ready for an early dose of summer heat next week. Something tells me it may be a long hot summer in the Upper Midwest this year.

PH