Updraft Category Archive: Fall

Wildfire threatens Ely; Gusty winds create rapid fire growth potential

Posted at 4:14 PM on May 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

Quick Updraft update:

A 30-40 acre wild fire just southeast of Ely has prompted evacuations.

Gusty south winds to 35 mph are fanning the flames, and low humidities around 20% are promoting rapid fire growth conditions.

Spotty power outages have taken local radio off the air, and the NWS surface observations also appear to be down as of 2:22pm Thursday.

(Photo by @ElyOutfittingCo)

Here is a compilation of info from various sources.

Live Ely webcams here

***
From WELY radio:

Wildfire in Ely Area

Tune in to www.wely.com for updates.

94.5fm is currently off the air due to the fire location

near the power substation.

The fire began approximately 1 mile south of Ely on Highway 1,

ignited by a downed power line.

The fire has grown to approximately 90 acres in size.

Forest service and local fire crews are currently battling this fire.

Ely residents in the area south of White street and East of

5th Avenue

are advised to evacuate their homes.

Evacuated residents are advised to go to the area north of Ely on

Miners drive.

If you need to evacuate and do not have transportation, call 911

and a bus will come pick you up.

Please stay clear of the area southeast of Ely as Emergency

crews are working to suppress the fire.

From MPR News:

Timberjay editor says just small evacuations in the S part of town (east of White, south of 12th).

Air takers deployed, type 2 fire team will be on the ground tonight (8:00?).

40 acres burning now, last update was a little while ago.

Some power outages around the area, downtown ok.

Tankers are in the air outside Ely fighting a 10-20 acre fire that is within a mile of town. We have been told the town council is meeting this afternoon to decide what, if any, action to order. No evacuations have been ordered, but some residents have reportedly voluntarily left their homes near the fire.

The story is now on AP with Duluth news tribune as source.

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Major USA aurora outbreak! October reality check

Posted at 8:00 AM on October 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Indian Summer

Major USA Aurora Monday night!

A major aurora episode dazzled viewers in the USA Monday night all the way south to Arkansas. Clouds over most of Minnesota prevented our view. Check out some of the amazing images below.

The display may have been the best in 11 years according to spaceweather.com.

"AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States.

"Wow, wow, wow! These were the best Northern Lights I've seen since 2004," says Shawn Malone, who took this picture from the shores of Lake Superior in Michigan."

Photo by: Randy Halverson

Oct. 24, 2011

Location: Cross Plains, WI

Details:

"On 10-24-2011 the forecast was for storm level Aurora displays. My son and I went out that night west of Madison, WI to shoot some timelapse and take stills of them. At one point they were so bright they lit up the ground, it will be hard to edit the timelapse because they were almost over exposed at that point. Many more pics on my site. http://dakotalapse.com/?p=581"

Photo by: Brian Emfinger

Oct. 24, 2011

Location: Ozark, Arkansas, USA

Details:

"Unbelievable! Thank you Spaceweather! I just happened to click on your site and saw the alert... I ran out and put my camera out and immediately saw reddish aurora. I ran out into the field and within a few minutes the Aurora went crazy! .... and this from near Ozark, ARKANSAS!!!! Canon T1i"

I personally saw a faint aurora dirctly overhead outside the weather lab around 9pm Monday evening through some breaks in the clouds. Unfortunately, thickening clouds shielded most of Minnesota from seeing what looks like the most dazzling display in years. Bummer!

Here are the details and photos from spaceweather.com.

Mild "Sep-Tober" Monday:

62 degrees- high temperature Monday at MSP Airport!

54 degrees - average high for October 24th

+ 8.3 degrees vs. average so far this October at MSP Airport

8th warmest October on record in 2011?
(weather lab estimate with 1 week to go)

33 tornadoes reported in Minnesota in 2011 (Complete list here from Twin Cities NWS)

114 tornaodes in Minnesota in 2010 (all time state record)

Indian Summer 60s nosed into southern Minnesota Monday. Summer like 70s and 80s poised to the south in Iowa and Kansas!

Cooler front Tuesday:

A cooler front will blow into Minnesota Tuesday. Breezy low pressure is gathering and passing through Iowa. You'll feel the cooler east-northeast winds Tuesday gusting over 20 mph at times.

Spotty showers may dot your windshield Tuesday, but this system is a bit moisture starved and rainfall totals should be mostly light.

Wednesday - Saturday: "Seasonably cool & frosty!"

A drier colder Canadian air mass will push into Minnesota by Wednesday. Look for sunny skies, cool days and chilly nights Wednesday into Saturday.

The GFS is hinting at the potential for some light um.....(gulp) light snow Friday morning around eastern Minnesota and possibly the metro. It's early, but I can't rule out a few snow flakes in the air Friday morning as an upper air disturbance slides through.

It's been at least 6 months since I had to pull out this graph!
(Click for an image you can actually read!)

Highs should be in the upper 40s to near 50 late this week. Lows will tumble into the lower 30s with frost likely each morning.

Indian Summer Halloween Ahead?

A warming trend will kick in Sunday and Monday. Right now Halloween looks mild. Mostly sunny skies and southwest winds could boost temps into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by the time the trick or treaters get rolling around 6pm Monday evening!

60s to open November?

Next week (the first week of November) looks mild.

Milder air will spill into the upper Midwest as a lazy ridge of high pressure amplifies over the central USA next week. If the pattern verifies as portrayed by the GFS modle, temps may push 60 degrees again next Tuesday - Thursday November 1st - 3rd.

Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities may see a nice dry mild stretch of 4-5 days near or at 60 degrees. With an average high at MSP of just 49 by next week, that would put temps as much as 11 degrees above average...definitely Indian Summer!

After that the models are murkier, and all bets for mild weather are off. The chances for early winter like cold and snow increase dramatically by mid November. Right now though it appears we'll see some brief cold air intrusions, followed by milder air again...possibly sunshine, dry skies and 50s for the weekend of November 5th?

There's still a window to get those leaves up and those last outdoor projects done....but that window is closing a little more each day!

PH

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Sep-Tober Monday; 8th warmest October? 2011 Jekyll-Hyde temps

Posted at 8:43 AM on October 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall

Mild Monday starts the week:

A promising Monday morning sky at the weather lab

Today should be the warmest day this week in Minnesota. This will be the day to get out and rake a few more leaves, take a bike ride or stroll or get in that last round of golf.

64 degrees forecast high for the metro and southern Minnesota today.

53 degrees average high Monday

+11 degrees vs. average if we make 64 degrees today!

Cooler front, spotty rain:

A gathering low pressure system will slide south of Minnesota Tuesday. The system will bring cooler winds, and a chance of spotty showers. Most of the rain may form east of Minnesota into Wisconsin. Right now the models are keeping any precip on the lighter side for Minnesota, with totals generally less than .10".

A cooler push of dry air late this week will return temps close to normal Wednesday thorugh Friday. Highs will hover near 50 with lows in the 30s.

Mild Halloween?

The maps are hinting at moderating temps again by the weekend, with mild air pushing in by Sunday and into Halloween. It's still a week out, but Halloween still looks potentially mild and dry, with a high in the upper 50s to near 60. Trick or treat temps should be in the 50s!

Top 10 warmest October?

+ 8.3 degrees vs. average for October temps at MSP through Sunday!

58.8 degrees - average temperature so far in October at MSP Airport

59.3 degrees - warmest October on record in 1947

This week's cool snap will bring our October average temperature a little closer to reality, but it still looks like this mild month may go down as one of the 10 warmest Octobers on record.

Depending on how this week plays out, it looks like we may end up with an average october temp of around 55 degrees. That would be good enough for the 8th warmest October on record at MSP Airport.

OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
NWSFO.. MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL MINNESOTA

MODERN DAY RECORDS
10 WARMEST
59.3...1947
58.1...1963
57.8...1900
57.4...1953
56.6...1924
56.5...1920/56
55.4...1914/38
54.5...1897
54.4...1931
54.3...2007

2011 Temps: A Jekyll & Hyde year

2011 has shown some interesting temperature trends in Minnesota. Basically the year started cool with the first 5 montsh below average, Then in June somebody flipped the heat switch on, and the past 5 months have been significantly warmer than average.

We can probably point to the signature of a fading La Nina in spring as one possible reason for the shift.

For the year MSP Airport is running about .85 degrees warmer than average in 2011.

Temps vs. average at MSP Airport in 2011

Jan -1.1
Feb -1.4
Mar -2.7
Apr -0.4
May -0.9
Jun +1.1
Jul +5.6
Aug +2.4
Sep +0.9
Oct + 5.0 (estimated)

Drought expanding:

October rainfall deficits are over an inch now in much of Minnesota, and 3 to 4" below average since August 1st. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the effects.

A full 80% of Minnesota is now "abnormally dry" or in various stages of drought.

2011 Growing Season Ends: 172 days at MSP Airport

May 3rd - last 32 at MSP this spring

October 21st - First 32 at MSP this fall

172 days 2011 growing season

161 days long term average growing season at MSP Airport

171 days growing season at MSP in 2010

Friday's official low of 32 degrees ended the growing season at MSP Airport. It wasn't "killing frost" in many areas, the weather lab roses are still blooming on October 24th!

Enjoy!

PH

No need to rush into winter

Posted at 3:45 PM on October 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Daylight, Fall, Winter 2011-12

Now that we have the offical winter outlook from NOAA we can perhaps ease our way into the cold and enjoy a little more autumn weather for late October and early Novemeber. Here's the eight to fourteen day temperature forecast for last weekend in October and the first couple days of November. As a reminder, the normal maximum and minimum for this time of the year are dropping to near 50 and lows near 32 degrees.

Extending the long range outlook through November we see odds appear to favor an easing into a cold and snowy pattern. Here's the temperature outlook for the month of November, released by NOAA this morning. Marry this graphic with the December through February outlook and you might surmise changes set in the deeper we go into November. Thanksgiving is usually about the time our winter weather pattern sets in.

For those wondering about snowfall for the winter, odds posted by the Climate Prediction Center pattern above normal moisture with the cold. Overall the outlook is aligned with the Almanac and other prognasticators. I just work on trying to get the next couple of days accurate.

Why all the attention on the outlooks when you've got plans for the weekend? Because there is not much going on until late Saturday. Winds will be on the light side and temperatures will be at or above normal. Afternoon sunshine should feel pretty nice on Friday.

Clouds thicken late in the day on Saturday and a band of showers is likely to show up in northwest Minnesota around dark and sweep east overnight. Timing in our favor, would put the wet weather east of the region by mid morning on Sunday.

To validate the absence of problematic weather, here's the visible satellite image from mid afternoon.

If Mother Nature can excite the atmosphere sufficiently, some places may receive up to a quarter inch of rain overnight on Saturday. The GFS model suggests the most likely area for measureable rainfall would be from the Iron Range to Duluth.

Not to throw water on the weekend party, we will lose about ten minutes of daylight between now and Monday. Time to get at those outdoor chores!
CE

Classic fall weekend; New "space junk" headed for earth

Posted at 5:20 PM on October 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall

57 degree high on Friday

26 degrees cooler than Sunday (High was 83 at MSP Sunday!)

1st cooler than average day in 13 days

+14.1 degrees above average through October 13th

Cooler weather pattern arrives:

This is how October was meant to be in Minnesota. Cooler and blustery with clouds drifting by on gusty northwest winds.

The weather will mellow a bit this weekend. More sun will be the rule. A weather disturbance passing through may bring some showers to southern Minnesota Saturday night. High should hover around 60 this weekend in the south, with 50s north. Lows will be in the 40s south and 30s north.

Look for a cooler than average week next week in Minnesota. Yes, the law of averages applies to weather trends. After 13 days above average with near record warmth in Minnesota to open October, you knew the weather pendulum would swing in the opposite (cooler) direction!

Past Peak:

Leaf peepers will have to pick their spots this weekend. This week's wind and rain means much of our fall color display is on the ground!

Indian Summer still possible:

There is still hope for more mild weather in Minnesota this month. The medium-range forecast maps are hinting at a milder fall pattern the last week of October. We may still savor a few days int the mid 60s to near 70 degrees, with sun and lazy southwest winds.

Jet stream lifts north into Canada on October 29th allowing milder air to move north into Minnesota?

"Space Junk" Part II: Another satellite crashing to earth?

First it was the UARS satellite disappearing mysteriously into the Pacific Ocean like Amelia Earhart.

Now the ROSAT X-Ray Observatory appears headed for a close encounter with earth's atmosphere sometime the weekend of October 22nd.

The details from spaceweather.com.

"SATELLITE RE-ENTRY: The ROSAT X-ray observatory, launched in 1990 by NASA and managed for years by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), will return to Earth within the next two weeks. Current best estimates place the re-entry between Oct. 22nd and 24th over an unknown part of Earth. Although ROSAT is smaller and less massive than UARS, which grabbed headlines when it re-entered on Sept. 24th, more of ROSAT could reach the planet's surface. This is because the observatory is made of heat-tolerant materials. According to a DLR study, as many as 30 individual pieces could survive the fires of re-entry. The largest single fragment would likely be the telescope's mirror, which is very heat resistant and may weigh as much as 1.7 tons."

You may be able to see ROSAT in orbit this weekend after sunset low in the NNW sky. Here are the tracking details for Minneapolis.

Time to fire up the "satellite tracker" again!

PH

Once in a lifetime; Warmest October on record so far!

Posted at 8:46 AM on October 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Record

Warmest October on record so far at MSP Airport!

Confirmation for Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climatology Office this morning that this is by far the warmest october on record in much of Minnesota, and certainly in the Twin Cities. (My highlights)

"Hi Paul,

-Pete"

The numbers for October 2011 continue to amaze.

83 degree high at MSP Sunday

+21 degrees vs. average for October 9th

8th consecutive day at or above 80 degrees

58 year record tied for consecutive 80 degree warmth in October!
(Truly a "once in a lifetime weather event" for most Minnesotans!)

+15.4 degrees vs. average so far in October at MSP Airport!

-Anyone for 9 in a row? If the thermometer at MSP Airport hits 80 Monday (and we have a shot) that will make this the longest run of consecutive 80 degree days in October weather history at MSP.

Welcome to "Minnezona."

If you want to put it in some perspective, this is what it feels like to live in Arizona. Day after day of gorgeous, sunny, dry weather. It's the kind weather of monotony you can get used to in a hurry. Planning an outdoor event? No problem. Need a "Plan B" is case of rain? Probably not. Tee time tomorrow? See you there.

Best weather in the nation?

Yes it's subjective, and we are creeping into drought. But if you look at the benefit to weekend travel/tourism in Minnesota and the boost for outdoor work for landscapers and contractors, farmers and the grain harvest...this stretch of weather is likely the best weather in the nation.

Temperatures Sunday afternoon show 80s bubbling north into Minnesota.

The 83 degree high at MSP Airport Sunday was warmer than Tucson (82) New Orleans(81) Tampa and Los Angeles! (74)

Changes ahead: October reality check this week

Two more days of mostly sunny mild weather will finally give way to a real October cold front this week. As the front pushes in Wednesday, some much needed bands of showers should light up radars in Minnesota, and temps will drop a good 20 degrees by week's end.

Look for highs closer to 60 than 80 by Thursday & Friday. Just in case you've lost perspective...the average high for the metro this week is 61 degrees!

Drought Watch: Lake levels dropping fast

Our usually robust streams along the North Shore are a trickle these days. After record flooding this spring, lake and river levels are dropping fast in southern Minnesota.

Lake Minnetonka is down nearly 2 feet since May, and docks that were nearly underwater now seem too high on much of the lake.

Gray's Bay Dam has been closed since September 6th, meaning three is no discharge of water from Lake Minnetonka into Minnehaha Creek these days.

Enjoy two more warm days....then get ready for some big, sweater searching weather changes this week!

PH

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3rd warmest October so far! Growing drought covers 74% of MN!

Posted at 5:23 PM on October 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Fall, Fall color

Passengers soaking up October warmth aboard The Lady of the Lake on Lake Minnetonka Friday.

Welcome to "June-Tober."

We're living charmed weather lives in Minnesota these days!

Our string of consecutive 80 degree days now stands at 6....as thermometers blew past past the 80 degree mark again Friday.

That makes this the 3rd warmest start to October on record so far, according to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office.

"Hi Paul,

-Pete"

With Ocotber 2011 only .4 degree off the pace...this is basically right there with the warmest October starts on record! We can't feel the difference between 67.0 and 67.4 degrees!

Temperatures Friday look more like July than October!

Temps +13 degrees vs. average so far this October!

3rd warmest start to October on record so far!
(just 0.4 degree away from 1st place)

6 consecutive days at or above 80 this October

2nd highest number of October 80s on record

8days at or above 80 in October 1953

58 years since MSP has logged this many 80 degree days in October!

43 average low temp at MSP Friday

65 actual low temp at MSP Friday

63 average high temp at MSP Friday

"Cooler Front" this weekend:

The 80s will fade this weekend as a (gentle for October) cool front slides through. Temps will still run about 10 degrees above average, with highs in the 70s south and 60s north this weekend.

There will be a few spotty showers, but overall precip looks to be on the light side, generally under .25" in most areas. We may settle some of the wind-whipped dust this weekend, but the rain won't be putting out any fires or putting a dent in the drought.

Growing Drought!

It's been another warm, windy, dry week with no rainfall in Minnesota, and the drought expanding.

A full 74% of Minnesota is now listed as "abnormally dry" or in some stage of drought on the week's U.S. Drought Monitor. That compares to only 4% of Minnesota in or near drought 3 months ago!

Rainfall deficits now exceed 4" in much of Minnesota since August 1st. The overall weather pattern looks wetter in the next two weeks, but rainfall totals will likely not be enough to end the drought in Minnesota.

Fall colors peaking this weekend!

The gusty & dusty weather pattern late last week tooka few leaves off the trees, but the colors are still spectacular and at or near the elusive "peak" this weekend in Minnesota.

Here are some fall color scenes I captured Friday from around the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven in the west metro. Enjoy, and have a great weekend!

PH

Parkway invites

My friend Pav's Hunter sailboat & Whaler ride out gusty winds Friday.

Road sign provides a not so subtle seasonal metaphor?

Wind, waves & colors on St. Louis Bay of Lake Minnetonka.

Classic fall street scene

Leafy carpet

Is climate change affecting fall color timing?

The story from AP:

"Climate change scientists focus on fall foliage shifts

- In Vermont, state foresters studying sugar maples at the Proctor Maple Research Center in Underhill found that the growing season ended later than the statistical average in seven out of the last 10 years. And then there are regular folks like 83-year-old Nancy Aldrich at Polly's Pancake Parlor in New Hampshire, who has been keeping her own records since 1975. Her numbers show that color change is a moving target, and she's not willing to go out on a limb in terms of making any declarations."

June-Tober: Summery week opens warm October

Posted at 8:42 AM on October 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

LHYC webcam shows picture perfect morning on Lake Harriet Monday.

80 degree high at MSP Sunday (80 is average for June 18th!)

+16 degrees vs. average (Average High Sunday was 64 degrees)

83 in Fargo and Grand Forks Sunday!

96 degrees in Rapid City Sunday

Thermal Ridge:

Welcome to life under the "thermal ridge." That's what meteorologists call the axis of warmest temperatures under these big ridges of high pressure called "Omega Blocks."

Omega Blocks are so named because they look like the Greek letter Omega on upper air charts. This one will be around all week.

While both coasts shiver with 40s and snow in Pennsylvania and 50s and in the Pacific Northwest, Minnesota lies under the warm summery ridge of high pressure. In fact, it was warm in the Twin Cities Sunday than New Orleans (74 degrees) and Los Angeles (76 degrees) and every bit as warm as Tampa which also topped out at 80 degrees Sunday!

Look for a string of days at or above 80 in southern and western Minnesota this week!

Warm October preview?

The first week of October will run a good 15 degrees above average for Minnesota. A weekend cool front may drop temps into the upper 60s for highs by early next week, but there are signs we may warm back into the 70s again later next week.

That should put the first two weeks of October a good 10 degrees above average or so, and that could be an "insurmountable" lead on an above average October in the Upper Midwest. Looks like CPC has the right idea with the monthly temp forecast we first showed you last week.

Warm October trends:

The jet stream has been shoved north this month. Historically, a fast moving jet stream right over Minnesota in October means rapid weather changes, with sharp cold fronts punctuated by brief warm spells.

Not this month, and not lately. My MPR colleague and UM Professor Dr. Mark Seeley has mentioned many times that data is showing warmer weather lingering into fall the past few decades in Minnesota.

Spetepmeber: Driest on record for much of Minnesota

Mark also highlights the driest September on record for Minnesota in his weekly Weather Talk blog post.

Topic: Preliminary Climate Summary for September

"Most Minnesota climate observers reported an average monthly temperature that was within 1 or 2 degrees of normal, either side (warmer or colder)-. Some were slightly cooler than normal (SE Minnesota for example), while others were slightly warmer than normal (central MN). Extreme temperatures for the month were: 94 degrees F at Madison, Canby, MSP, Redwood Falls, and Winona on September 1st; and just 19 degrees F at Embarrass, Wannaska, and International Falls on the 15th. Minnesota reported the nation's coldest temperature for the 48 contiguous states 4 times during the month: on the 15th, 16th, 17th, and 24th.

Several observers reported multiple days with wind gusts over 40 mph. Wind gusts over 50 mph were observed on the 29th, including 55 mph at New Ulm, 56 mph at Rochester, and 53 mph at MSP. A steep pressure gradient was driving the wind across the region."

With rainfall now over 3" below average since August, much of Minnesota is slipping back into drought.

This is a good week to get some water on your yellowing pine & spruce trees. A slow soaking with your hose on a trickle for a couple of hours will do wonders. It's also a great week and to get those outdoor projects done!

PH

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Best fall weekend? Mild October? Must see weather time lapse

Posted at 4:45 PM on September 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

This is how you draw it up in Minnesota in October.

Synopsis:

A bubble of Canadian high pressure will slip over Minnesota this weekend. As the high moves overhead early Saturday morning, light winds and clear skies will lead to frosty temps in much of eastern Minnesota. The inner core of the metro (inside the 494-694 ring) may escape widespread frost once again early Saturday.

By Sunday, the high slips east, and milder southerly breezes return. Temperatures should respond nicely, and 70s will filter in from the west by afternoon. A few eager bank thermometers may blink 80 in southwest Minnesota Sunday PM.

The dry, stable and mild weather pattern holds into next week. Look for string of days in the 70s, with a stray 80 or two possible.

A strong low pressure system will spin out of the Rockies late next week. This will bring the first widespread significant chances for rain Friday into Saturday.

GFS model cranking out .50" to 1" rainfall next Friday night?

Saturday: Frost advisory AM. Sunny & milder PM! Highs in the 60s. Wind SE 5-12 mph.

Sunday: Sunny & warmer! Highs well into the 70s, with a shot at 80 in southwest Minnesota. Wind S 10-20 mph.

Monday-Thursday: Mostly sunny & mild. Highs generally in the 70s, with a shot at 80 in southwest Minnesota.

Friday -Sunday: Chance of rain Friday & Saturday. Cooler next weekend. Highs in the 60s.

Enjoy!

Mild October ahead?

After next weekend's cool down, the longer range maps are hinting milder than average weather may return. In fact CPC is cranking out higher chances for an above average temperatures in October for the Upper Midwest.

Incredible weather time lapse videos:

You have to check this out. Randy Halverson is a photographer in South Dakota who's painstakingly created nigthtime time lapse videos of stars & storms. The dolly moves through corn & grass are pehnomenal. This stuff is worth watching!

Tempest Milky Way from Randy Halverson on Vimeo.

Have a great weekend!

PH

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MN: Taste of fall ahead? GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

Posted at 8:41 AM on August 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Flooding, Hurricanes

The weather maps are looking a little scary in the weather lab this morning.

Last night's north metro flash flood dumped 2" to 3"+ rain totals in the north metro. Some rainfall reports below, including nearly a month's worth of rain in Roseville!

MPX: 5 Nw Roseville [Anoka Co, MN] nws employee reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.21 INCH at 11:00 PM CDT -- heavy rain fell during the evening on tuesday...august 16.

MPX: Wsw Waverly [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.10 INCH at 06:43 PM CDT --

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 83 / 65 / 0.85
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 84 / 62 / 1.42
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 80 / 54 / 1.66
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 77 / 56 / 0.72
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 84 / 59 / 2.07
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 83 / 62 / 0.14
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 79 / 55 / T
STP : ST PAUL MN : 84 / 62 / 1.01

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints heavy 2" to 3" rainfall totals from Tuesday night in the north Metro.

The deluge put the Twin Cities into the plus category for rainfall in August. MSP Airport has picked up 2.87" this month, and that's .52" above average for the month to date.

Signs of fall ahead?

I know...don't shoot me I'm just the messenger!

We really shouldn't be surprised to see some "blue lines" on the weather map in late August. We're not talking about a headlong launch into fall like weather just yet...but the GFS is showing signs of cooler air pooling up in Canada in the next 7-14 days.

There's still plenty of warm summer like weather ahead as we move into State Fair time next week. But there are indications that before Labor Day, we could see some brief "incursions" of cooler air push south into Minnesota.

Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s in late August???

It's too early to write off summer yet, but it is that time of the year when we turn one eye to Canada to see what's coming.

GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

This one falls under the weather category of "too early to be reliable, but not to pay attention to."

For the past 2 days now the GFS model has been insistent in bringing a hurricane to somewhere near south Florida by late next week. The models have varied in exact location from run to run, but have been consistent in the notion of a (potentially major?) hurricane approaching Florida next Thursday or Friday.

There is a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic that bears watching, and the GFS is likely picking up on this and steering it westward next week.

This may be on NHC's radar behind the scenes, but it's just too far in advance to post anything on the potential...at least not yet.

Is this GFS "model fantasy" or a weather fact that we may have to pay attention to in the next week? Don't bet the farm on this one....but keep an eye out for possible headlines concerning the potential for a Florida hurricane in the next week.

PH

Indian Summer lingers: Changes ahead late-week

Posted at 8:41 AM on November 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Indian Summer

Cathy Wurzer asked me this morning if our mild November weather qualifies as "Indian Summer." I am happy to report the answer is an unqualified and resounding yes!

From the AMS glossary:

Indian summer--A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

Temperatures topped out at 61 in the metro Sunday. That's a full (and welcome!) 16 degrees above the average high of 45 in the metro for November 7th. International Falls topped out at 60 degrees on November 7th. Not bad for a place they call the nation's icebox.

This is November? Warm air suges north Sunday.

A slow moving upper air storm over the Rockies will continue to pull mild air northward through Wednesday. Temperatures should push into the 60s again today and Tuesday, so enjoy the last leaf raking and lazy strolling this week.

Changes ahead:

It IS November...so you know the other shoe is in mid-air and ready to drop sometime soon. That time is coming later this week.

The western storm will push a cold front through Minnesota Wednesday. There will likely be a band of showers (< .25"?) with the front, but the main feature will be significantly colder air. Highs will not climb out of the lower 40s by Friday and into the weekend.

Snowy close encounter Saturday?

It looks like the upper air pattern and surface systems may come "into phase" over Wisconsin Saturday. This should spin up a low pressure system that may drag in enough moisture and cold air to produce some snow for western Wisconsin and far SE Minnesota Saturday. Rochester. La Crosse and Eau Claire may see enough snow to shovel and plow if the system tracks as forecast models paint things now.

GFS model paints possible snow Saturday in Wisconsin.

We'll have to keep an eye on this system late in the week.

Our average first 1" snowfall in the metro is on November 18th.

Earliest and Latest Snowfall and Snow Cover in Twin Cities

Average first one-inch snowfall (1891-2003) November 18
earliest (1891-2003) September 26, 1942
lastest (1891-2003) January 9, 1945

Average first one-inch snow depth(1903-2003) November 21
earliest (1903-2003) October 13, 1959
latest (1903-2003) January 1, 1913

Latest 1 inch snowfall (season) (From 1891-2005)
------------------------------
1.) Jan 21 2005 (04-05)
2.) Jan 9, 1945 (44-45)
3.) Jan 6, 1981 (80-81)
4.) Jan 1, 1914 (13-14)
5.) Dec 30, 1918 (18-19)
6.) Dec 26, 1904 (04-05)
7.) Dec 21, 1920 (20-21)
8.) Dec 20, 1998 (98-99)
9.) Dec 19, 1939 (39-40)
10.) Dec 16, 1908 (07-08)

Colder pattern persists next week.

The cold air plunge this weekend may last a while. The medium range forecast models feature a persistent northwest flow aloft, and that should send waves of reinforcing cold our way for the next two weeks.

There is a lack of snow cover so far in northwest Canada, and that may help temper what could be an icy outbreak of cold air.

In the mean time, enjoy two more days of Indian Summer... Minnesota style!

PH

Remarkable October

Posted at 8:43 AM on November 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Fall

It's hard to believe we woke up to November this morning.

A nearly perfect Halloween made for great trick for treating this year. Our high Sunday was 49, and light winds with temps in the 40s made for ideal Halloween night weather. Oh how I remember those parka-clad Halloween nights of the frigid 1970s. If this is climate change in Minnesota, at least Halloween weather seems to be improving for the little ghouls and goblins.

An October to remember:

October was another remarkable and record setting month in Minnesota's "anything goes" weather year of 2010. "Expect the unexpected" somebody once said, and 2010 is all that for Minnesota. Here are some of the highlights for October 2010:

-Minnesota all time record low barometric pressure record. October 26th (28.21") at Big Fork.

"Octobomb" winds up over Minnesota last Tuesday.

-Warmest October in 47 years! (since1963)

-Longest dry spell in 30 years ended October 23rd

-10th latest frost on record (October 28th)

-Growing season 2010 was 171 days... a full 10 days longer than average. (May 9th-October 27th

-Warm October makes 7 of the past 8 months above average in Minnesota.
Election Day weather good:

Election Day weather looks good in Minnesota. A cold front will cut into northwest Minnesota late Tuesday bringing a few showers, but most of Minnesota will enjoy dry mild weather Tuesday. The front will slide south brining a chance of showers overnight for southern Minnesota.

Roller coaster temps:

Expect roller coaster temps this week. Tuesday may be as close as we come to Indian Summer this year. Highs may approach 60°F ahead of a cool front sagging south on Wednesday. The bottom of the coaster will feature a bracing wind chill on Thursday, before things warm up again by next weekend. Saturday may feature milder breezes with temps in the 50s to near 60 again.

The computers are hinting at the possibility of much colder weather next week.

Enjoy the quiet and relatively mild start to November.

PH

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Grand Marais: Amazing "Landicane '10" storm photos

Posted at 5:16 PM on October 29, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Land Hurricane 2010, Storms

Check out the excellent pictures from the Duluth NWS website by photographer Bryan Hansel.

The images show the impacts of the storm in Grand Marais Harbor. The photos, taken Wednesday, show the effects of high waves and heavy surf pounding Grand Marais Harbor during the overnight and early morning hours early Wednesday.

Huge wave slams the lighthouse on Grand Marais Harbor.

Wave break shoots a jet of water well above top of lighthouse which stands 48 feet above Lake Superior on a quiet day.

Compare the above images with my image below taken in August.

The pounding surf took its toll on boats in Grand Marais Harbor Wednesday.

Boat beached near the Angry Trout Cafe on the southwest end of Grand Marais Harbor. Highway 61 is just a few feet above this boat.

Sailboat suffers the same fate on the other end of the harbor. No "sailor's delight" here.

The "storm surge" also innundated the harbor breakwater at times. Check out the reference image I took below in August (of my son Luke) and the breakwater on a quieter day.

Comapre the above image with the Bryan Hansel photo from Wednesday.

Waves pound and overrun the breakwater at Grand Marais Wednesday.

As for wave heights, the western mid-lake bouy Station 45006 locatd 48NM North of Ironwood, MI. (about 50 mi SE of Grand Marais) recorded wave heights of nearly 19 feet at the height of the storm around daybreak Wednesday morning.

Waves reached at least 26 feet in eastern Lake Superior at the buoy Wednesday on Slate Island near the Ontario shore.

It is reasonable to infer that waves of at least 10 to 15+ feet pounded Grand Marais Harbor Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Pretty amazing stuff for the Land Hurricane of 2010!

PH

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Metro frost; Decent Halloween; Indian Summer ahead

Posted at 5:00 PM on October 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Weekend

The metro area escaped frost Thursday morning. A frosty start Friday looks like a slam dunk.

Wind and clouds kept surface temperatures just above freezing early Thursday. The mercury bottomed out at 35° early Thursday. That adds one more (albeit chilly) day to the 2010 metro growing season which began on May 9th.

If the first 32 degree reading at Twin Cities Airport occurs Friday morning as forecast, it will tie for the 9th latest 32 degree temperature occurrence in the Twin Cities on record.

Recipe for frost:

Weather conditions look ideal for frost Friday morning. Here's the recipe:

-Clear skies
-Light winds
-Daytime temps below 45°F
-Dew points in the 20s.

These conditions allow maximum "radiational cooling" to plunge temperatures below the freezing point in the early morning hours.

Locations that have not yet seen frost in southern Minnesota will see the season's first frost Friday morning. Prepare accordingly.

Improving Forecast:

The weather will mellow over the next week in Minnesota. The warming trend starts Friday as temperatures will recover into the 50s.

Paul's Weekend Forecast:

Friday: Frosty start, fine finish. Filtered sun through a few high clouds. High 53. Wind S-SW 5-15.

Saturday: Mixed sun & clouds. Cool. High 49. Wind NE 5-10.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 50. Wind E 5-10.

Halloween Trick or Treatcast: Clear skies, light winds. Temps in the 40s. A solid 6 on a scale of 1 to 10!

Indian Summer next week?

Forecast models hint at a leaning ridge of high pressure builds in by the middle of next week. This should mean a gradual warming trend with cool nights and increasingly mild days. Temperatures should push the 60 degree mark in southern Minnesota by Wednesday, and that pattern could last into next weekend. That would put temperatures a good 12 degrees above average. Good enough in my book for Indian Summer after our first frost Friday.

Look for another dry, mild and quiet weather pattern by the middle of next week!

First big snow in sight??

It's wayyyy out in the medium range forecast models and could be pure fiction at this point...but the models are hinting at the potential for our first big snow in southern Minnesota the weekend of November 13-14.

GFS model hints at potential snow maker by November 13th. Possibly pure fiction that far out...but worth watching.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

My storm's bigger than your storm!

Check out this and this from the AMS blog. I guess our October Superbomb has some weather and climate gurus a little jealous. For the record, I don't see a case here for a lower barometer than this week's Minnesota Superstorm...and storms over open ocean don't count!

Tuesday's "Octobomb" winds up over Minnesota.

Then of course there's that old joke about getting 10 meteorologists in a room and getting 13 different forecasts.

PH

Name that storm!

Posted at 4:07 PM on October 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (17 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Storms

We've sliced & diced our record October storm a hundred ways. Now we need a name.

Here are some ideas:

-October Superbomb
-The Land Hurricane of 2010
-Flurricane
-Big Fork Betty
-Hurricane Minny

Now it's your turn. Fire when ready!

PH

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Record "Land Hurricane" rages: Wind, cold and snow now

Posted at 10:10 AM on October 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Storms

Update 10:10am:

Some amazing storm reports coming in this morning....Check out these reports from Grand Marais.

DLH: Grand Marais [Cook Co, MN] law enforcement reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 12:00 AM CDT -- roof of grand marais municipal pool damaged by strong winds. Two boats lost their moorings in the harbor and were blown onshore. widespread power outages in cook county. numerous trees down along the gunflint trail.

DLH: Grand Marais [Cook Co, MN] asos reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M59.00 MPH at 11:56 PM CDT -- sustained 43 mph gusting to 59 mph. beginning at this time...and lasting for 7 hours...gusts at Grand Marais were regularly measured over 50 mph.

Grand Marais Harbor Cam shows a rough harbor with debris on the shoreline today.

And from closer to the Twin Cities.

MPX: 1 Sw Menomonie [Dunn Co, WI] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 08:03 AM CDT -- 1 foot diameter pine tree uprooted on UW Stout campus.

MPX: Stillwater [Washington Co, MN] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 08:31 AM CDT -- sporatic trees...up to one foot diameter...blown down around town.

PH

Update 8:20am:

The amazing Land Hurricane of 2010 continues to roar today.

The focus has shifted to snow and winter storm warnings for much of northern Minnesota and North Dakota where a full blown blizzard is raging. Here are some snow totals as of this morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

0640 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 SE TWIG 46.84N 92.29W
10/27/2010 M5.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
803 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

CURRENTLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

Temperatures are above freezing right along much of the North Shore and Duluth Harbor. Note the lack of snow this morning on the LSMM webcam.

Areas inland from the North Shore are getting hammered with 7" of snow reported 7 miles inland from Two Harbors! Conditions may improve a bit later today as temperatures begin to climb above freezing.

PH

*******
Original post 9pm Tuesday evening:

Welcome to the Super Bowl of Weather.

The deepest low pressure system on record continues to rage with fury over Minnesota.

The storm has already smashed the all time state record for the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in Minnesota Tuesday.

It also appears to have set the record for the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in a non tropical storm in the continental United States!

The new final low pressure record will be subject to verification by climate gurus, but reliable observations of at least 28.20" were recorded by NWS weather stations in Orr and Big Fork in north central Minnesota during the 5pm hour Tuesday. As posted here earlier, these pressure readings are what we would expect to see in Category 3 hurricanes!

The previous record low barometric pressure in Minnesota was 28.43" in Austin & Albert Lea on November 10, 1998.

Twin Cities NWS weather story highlights record low pressure over northern Minnesota.
(click on image to enlarge)

Anatomy of a "Land Bomb:"

Check out this amazing loop from SPC of the low rapidly intensifying as it undergoes "bombogenesis" over Minnesota Tuesday to become the deepest low in Minnesota and USA history.

The next phase of the storm features whistling winds and a wintery blast of colder air and wind driven snow. Winter storm warnings are flying from Brainerd into the red River Valley through Wednesday. The season's first blizzard warnings are up for most of North Dakota.

High wind warnings for sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph reamin up through Wednesday evening for the southern half of Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro.

As the cold air funnels in temperatures are plunging into the 30s over much of Minnesota. It looks like the first snow flakes of the season will fly in southern Minnesota as well, including the Twin Cities metro area.

A web of pressure lines (isobars) wrap around the strongest low pressure system in Minnesota history.

Winds will continue to whistle and howl in Minnesota through Wednesday. Here are some of the highest gusts as of Tuesday evening from the Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...SUMMARY OF THE PEAK WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...

LOCATION PEAK GUST TIME OF PEAK GUST
------------------------------------------------------------
...AUTOMTED ASOS AND AWOS SITES...

ALEXANDRIA 61 MPH 5:27 PM TUE
GLENWOOD 60 MPH 3:34 PM TUE
BENSON 59 MPH 2:33 PM TUE
GRANITE FALLS 59 MPH 3:33 PM TUE
ST. JAMES 59 MPH 2:55 PM TUE
REDWOOD FALLS 57 MPH 2:53 PM TUE
MARSHALL 57 MPH 2:15 PM TUE
NEW ULM 56 MPH 2:55 PM TUE
OLIVIA 56 MPH 12:33 PM TUE
MORRIS 54 MPH 12:32 PM TUE
PAYNESVILLE 53 MPH 3:53 PM TUE
WILLMAR 53 MPH 2:56 PM TUE
MONTEVIDEO 52 MPH 2:34 PM TUE
MINNEAPOLIS 52 MPH 5:15 PM TUE
ST. CLOUD 50 MPH 3:53 PM TUE

...AUTOMATED MESONET DATA...

MEHURIN 65 MPH 4:23 PM TUE
GEORGEVILLE 65 MPH 6:01 PM TUE
HANLEY FALLS 63 MPH 2:10 PM TUE
SAUK CENTER 62 MPH 4:03 PM TUE
LANGHEI 61 MPH 2:16 PM TUE
GEORGEVILLE 59 MPH 4:11 PM TUE
LESTER PRAIRIE 55 MPH 3:54 PM TUE
BELLE PLAINE 52 MPH 3:47 PM TUE

Huge footprint:

The footprint of this huge bomb of a mid latitude cyclone stretches from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Over 1,000 miles of territory from north to south is feeling the impacts of this gigantic system.

At least 21 tornadoes have been reported as of Tuesday evening along the leading edge cold front that tails through the Ohio Valley ionto the deep south.

Some perspective:

This storm will go down as the deepest low pressure system on record in Minnesota. The central pressure is lower than the Halloween Mega Storm, The Edmund Fitzgerald storm, and The Armistice Day Blizzard.

But this forecaster thinks it is a stretch to say it's the strongest storm in Minnesota history. Central barometric pressure is just one measure of a storms intensity and impacts. Because temperatures were well above freezing and rain rather than snow fell on the front side of the system, the overall effects from this storm are likely to be much less than many of the great Minnesota blizzards.

Still, this amazing and record storm will howl with wind and snow through Wednesday before finally easing gradually Wednesday night into Thursday. Just the latest in a series of incredible weather events in the land of 10,000 storms in 2010.

PH

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"Bomb Cyclogenesis" Pressure record smashed! Cat 3 hurricane level

Posted at 7:00 PM on October 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner (22 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Storms

Update 7:30pm:

I'm getting some phone and email (still unconfirmed) reports of widespread power outages in Big Lake. Also I have a report of a 40 foot basswood tree uprooted in Deephaven about a half mile from the weather lab.

Internet and cable TV is cutting in and out here at the weather lab in Deephaven. The wind is literally whistling outside the weather lab!

Here are the latest wind gusts from Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MEHURIN 65 MPH 4:23 PM TUE
GEORGEVILLE 65 MPH 6:01 PM TUE
HANLEY FALLS 63 MPH 2:10 PM TUE
SAUK CENTER 62 MPH 4:03 PM TUE
LANGHEI 61 MPH 2:16 PM TUE
GEORGEVILLE 59 MPH 4:11 PM TUE
LESTER PRAIRIE 55 MPH 3:54 PM TUE
BELLE PLAINE 52 MPH 3:47 PM TUE

Update: 5:45pm:

It will take time to sift through all the primary and secondary weather station data and verify the record lowest pressure today. By my count at least 22 Minnesota locations have broken or tied the previous record today. It appears that Aitkin was the first location to break the record today with a pressure of 28.42" at 10:13am.

The lowest CREDIBLE primary station barometric pressure reading I have seen so far today (4pm) is at International Falls and Orr at 28.24".

Update: 6:10pm: Orr and Big Fork both came in with readings of 28.20" after 5pm today. Stay tuned....storm still in progress but appears to be near maximum depth. We may still see lower pressure readings. Also wind gust in the past hour at 61 mph in Appleton!

There is a mesonet station at Birchdale (west of International Falls) reporting a reading of 28.01" this afternoon, but it is so out of range of nearby stations that the report will need to be verified.

Update 4:55pm:

Reports of wind damage now coming in with increasing wind gusts. I expect to see more as we head into tonight.

MPX: 6 Nw Rice Lake [Barron Co, WI] co-op observer reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 03:00 PM CDT -- 8 inch tree blow down...several 4-6 inch limbs down

MPX: Litchfield [Meeker Co, MN] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 04:17 PM CDT -- 14 inch tree snapped and fell on a house

Update 4pm:

This storm is so huge that it appears basically every location in north central Minnesota will break or tie the previous all time record low barometric pressure reading today.

It will take time to sift through all the primary and secondary weather station data and verify the record lowest pressure today. By my count at least 22 Minnesota locations have broken or tied the previous record today.

It appears that Aitkin was the first location to break the record today with a pressure of 28.42" at 10:13am.

By my count here are some of the locations that have broken the previous record today of 28.43" set on November 10, 1998.

North Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BAUDETTE LGT RAIN 53 51 93 NE12 28.28F FOG
INTL FALLS CLOUDY 55 53 93 E9 28.24F
LONGVILLE RAIN 45 43 93 W18G29 28.32S
GRAND RAPIDS CLOUDY 46 43 87 SW21G28 28.27S
COOK CLOUDY 50 48 93 SE14G28 28.27F

Northeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DULUTH RAIN 44 41 89 S22G31 28.37S FOG
HIBBING RAIN 48 46 93 SE13G22 28.27F FOG
SILVER BAY RAIN 46 43 87 S22G29 28.41S

Northwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEMIDJI RAIN 48 48 100 W21G29 28.33S
HALLOCK DRIZZLE 54 54 100 N18 28.43F
ROSEAU RAIN 54 50 87 N17 28.38F
WARROAD RAIN 52 46 82 N17G24 28.38F

If the report of a 28.03" barometer reading at Birchdale (west of International Falls along the Canadian border) verifies today that is the equivalent of the expected minimum central pressure for a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale!

This is yet another remarkable "record day" for Minnesota weather in 2010!

Update 3:30pm:

As of 3pm it appears that at least 22 locations In northern and central Minnesota have tied or broken the all time lowest barometric pressure on record in Minnesota.

The previous low was 28.43" on Nov 10, 1998.

As of 3pm it appears Birchdale near the Canadian border has a barometer reading of an incredible 28.04"! Big Fork reads 28.24", Grand Rapids 28.25".

Other towns that have broken low pressure records today include Duluth, International Falls, Aitkin, Ely, Hibbing, Bemidji, and Eveleth.

*******

Original post 8:30am:

Our first real fall storm in Minnesota continues to wind up and intensify today.

This one is a duzy and could produce the lowest barometer reading on record in Minnesota today. While that would technically make it the "strongest" in Minnesota history in terms of the lowest atmospheric pressure, it would be a stretch to say this is the strongest in terms of effects...at least so far. With temperatures above freezing so far and most of the precip with this system falling as rain, other storms have exerted far greater effects on Minnesota.

Intense low pressure is deepening over northern Minnesota today.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Rapidly falling pressures:

"Bomb Cyclogenesis" is a term meteorologists reserve for the most rapidly intensifying low pressure systems. "Bombs" undergo rapid pressure falls as they strengthen, and are defined by pressure drops of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours at 60°N latitude. The threshold for a bomb is a little lower in Minnesota, just 19 millibars in 24 hours at 45°N, the latitude of the Twin Cities.

These ear popping pressure falls are most common along the east coast in Nor'easters where warm ocean waters and extreme cold from Canada combine to produce rapid intensification.

Minnesota all time low barometric pressure record today?

This IS one of the deepest lows on record in Minnesota. As the storm center passed over Brainerd and Little Falls this morning, the barometer plunged to a 28.56" reading.

Update 9:00am: Pressure now down to 28.50" in Brainerd and 28.49" in Aitkin as of 9am.

That would appear to put the storm among the top three lowest barometer readings on record in Minnesota. The lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in Minnesota is 28.43" in Austin and Albert Lea on November 10th, 1998. The lowest in the Twin Cities is 28.55" on the same day.

Today's storm could deepen to record levels as it moves north today.

In fact if the storm reaches the forecast central pressure of 959 millibars, that would be lower than the minimum central pressure for 4 Atlantic hurricanes this season: Otto (972mb), Paula (981mb), Richard (981mb), and Lisa (987mb).

Slew of warnings:

As the low pulls north, high winds are cranking up in southwest Minnesota. There is a bevy of warnings flying with this storm. High wind warnings are up for the southern two-thirds of Minnesota. The season's first blizzard warnings are flyng for central and western North Dakota today as snow accumulations of 4" to 8" and winds over 50mph take hold.

As the heavier rain moves north today, the next phase of the storm will feature increasing wind gusts and falling temperatures. Winds are already gusting to over 50 mph this morning in southwest Minnesota at Worthington.

I'll be looking for whitecaps on the brid bath at the weather lab today.

We may get some snow on the back side of the system in Minnesota, but the situation could have been much worse if last night's rain had fallen as snow. The fact that this system has featured temps above freezing so far in Minnesota has lessened the impacts dramatically.

Severe threat east:

This storm has already produced tornadoes in Wisconsin (near Racine) and Illinois today. Tornado watches stretch along the cold front with this storm. SPC has tagged much of the Ohio Valley under a rare "high risk" for severe storms today.

PH

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Storm: 60 mph winds, 25+ foot waves, record low barometer?

Posted at 5:16 PM on October 25, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

This storm should have a name.

This week's storm may be as close as we come to a hurricane in Minnesota. In fact, you may be tempted to call this a land hurricane by Tuesday night. In the anything goes weather year of 2010, this week's storm is just the latest potentially record breaking weather system.

After a record mild and dry start to October, the gales of November will come early this year.

A deep low pressure system will move into Minnesota Tuesday. As the storm moves in and taps colder air from Canada, it will intensify and the central pressure will plunge. The latest forecast model runs indicate the storm has the potential to produce the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in Minnesota.

The lowest pressure on record in Minnesota currently stands at 962.8mb in Albert Lea and Austin on November 10, 1998.

Round 1 with this storm is bringing widespread rain and possibly some thunder overnight. Winds may be relatively ,light overnight as the center of the low moves in. When the low center slides by into northeast Minnesota Tuesday afternoon, a tightly packed pressure gradient will force winds to howl starting in southwest Minnesota and spreading northeast through the day and into Tuesday night.

Sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph are possible at times from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The sustained high winds and gusts will drive some huge waves on area lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the center of the storms pulls north into southern Canada, wave heights could exceed 25 feet on the eastern half of Lake Superior by Wednesday.

The storm is already cranking up huge waves today along the Oregon Coast, where high surf warnings are in effect.

KGW Pacific City coast cam shows huge waves pounding the Oregon Coast today.

The highest wind gusts may occur in the southwest half of Minnesota. Wind gusts could reach 60mph, and that may cause damage to trees and knock out power to some areas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Stay tuned as this intense fall storm system evolves over the next 48 hours.

Incredible Texas tornado video:

Check out the amazing (and dangerous) video from Texas shot Sunday evening by Eric Meyers, an emergency management coordinator in Navarro County, Texas just south of Dallas. You just can't make this stuff up.

The storms did cause injuries. They also pushed Texas' 2010 preliminary tornado numbers to around 106, closer to Minnesota's 145 but still a distant second place.

PH

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Major fall storm: Rain, wind, snow, frost

Posted at 8:51 AM on October 25, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Snow

The thud you hear coming from the weather lab today is the sound of the other shoe dropping.

Our blissfully long stretch of mild October weather will come to an abrupt end this week as a major fall storm slams into the Upper Midwest. The storm will bring widespread rain and high winds, and possibly the first snowflakes and frost of the season for many Minnesotans.

The center of this huge storm is swirling into Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest today. This immense and intense weather system covers a lot of real estate, spawning everything from high surf warnings (30'-35' waves!) along the Oregon Coast to thunderstorms and a slight severe weather risk in Madison, Wisconsin later today.

Let's break down the effects for Minnesota.

Rain:

We'll start the week with some fog and misty drizzle today. Rain showers will increase from west to east across Minnesota today and tonight. The heavier, steadier rains will move in tonight into the first half of Tuesday. We may even have a few thunderstorms rumble through overnight into early Tuesday.

Showers will increase today on the milder side of the surface low winding up in the Dakotas.

It looks like a widespread, soaking rain, with many spots in Minnesota picking up 1"+ by the time the rain tapers off from west to east later Tuesday. Drought stricken northeast Minnesota could see the heaviest rain totals.

Wind:

We'll feel breezy southeast to south winds of 10-20 mph on the milder side of the storm today. Winds will diminish some as the center of low pressure slides over Minnesota tonight and early Tuesday. But as the storm wraps up and moves past Minnesota, brutally colder gale force (and tropical storm force) winds will howl in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday.

Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph will howl late Tuesday through Wednesday, and severe storm level gusts of 50 to 60 mph may rip across the state. What few leaves are left on the trees will be airborne by Tuesday evening.

High wind watches are in effect Tuesday and Wednesday, and will no doubt be upgraded to high winds warnings.

Cold & snow:

The storm will pull down the coldest air so far this fall season by Wednesday.

We'll enjoy one last mild day today with temps in the 60s even with clouds. If we get a few breaks (or even some thinning) in the clouds today temps may briefly jump into the upper 60s.

Temps will plunge from the 50s into the 40s Tuesday on the back side of the storm. By Wednesday 30s will be common, and it looks to be cold enough for (gasp!) snow showers in northern and central Minnesota. The good news is most of the moisture will have pulled east by the time the colder air arrives. There could be some slushy accumulations in the far north, but most of Minnesota will see flakes in the air and not on the (relatively mild) ground.

It is possible that the Twin Cities could see the first snow flakes of the season Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Frost:

The system pulls out Thursday leaving cold air in its wake. Look for the season's first frost (including the metro) Thursday and Friday morning. Temperatures could fall into the 28° to 32°F range early Thursday in the south, with lower 20s up north.

Enjoy the mild Monday...and get set for the first taste of real fall (and a wintery preview!) by mid week.

PH

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Longest dry spell in 30 years, rain returns

Posted at 5:18 PM on October 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Fall, Weekend

Welcome to Minnesota, land of extreme weather. This is the place where weather extremes shift from record floods to record dryness in a month.

Friday was the 27th consecutive day without measureable rainfall in the Twin Cities. That's the longest dry spell in in the metro 30 years. The longest dry spell in 30 years!

The 27 day drought marks the 8th longest dry stretch on record in the Twin Cities since 1871. The last time we had this many dry days in a row was April & May 1980. The longest dry spell on record was 51 days spanning 1943-44. Here are the details from the Twin Cities NWS.

Warm too:

Not only is October 2010 bone dry, temperatures are running a full 6°F above average as well. Even as the weather turns (significantly) colder next week, we're going to finish the month above average. It's just a question of how far above average. October marks the 7th month of the past 8 going back to March that temperatures have been above average in Minnesota.

The image below shows mean atmospheric thickness patterns at 500mb (18,000 feet) over the northern hemisphere during the past 30 days. Above average thickness (ridging) in the upper atmosphere over Minnesota has lead to our Mediterranean climate over the past month.

Rain on the way:

The timing could be better, but this weekend marks the beginning of a change to a wetter and colder weather pattern for Minnesota. It looks like our dry spell will come to and end Saturday. Low pressure tracking through Iowa will push rain showers north into Minnesota Saturday and Sunday. The first wave could arrive Saturday morning.

I don't think the whole weekend will be a wash out, but expect occasional showers both days. Rainfall amounts look light, with most areas picking up between .25" and .50" this weekend.

Stronger system late Monday?

All signs point to a stronger low pressure storm moving into the Upper Midwest late Monday and Tuesday. This could be our first classic fall storm, with a big rain shield spreading in from west to east later on Monday and lingering through Tuesday. There will be a lot of wind with this one...these big "mid-latitude cyclones" pack a punch if they get wound up. And this one looks like it may do just that.

The latest model runs hint that we may catch a break in the clouds early Monday, and that combines with a stiff southerly wind ahead of the low may boost temps into the 60s to near 70 in parts on Minnesota Monday.

Once the rain arrives, temps will fall into the 50s and 40s. It looks like the next system may be warm enough for all rain.

This system looks to bring a good widespread soaking rain to much of the Upper Midwest. Many locations could see rainfall of 1"+ by Tuesday night.

Season's coldest air next week:

Powerful northwest winds will yank down the season's coldest air mass behind the system on Wednesday. It looks like temperatures may be cold enough for the season's first frost and 32 degree temperature at Twin Cities Airport by Thursday morning. It also looks like moisture may be gone by then...keeping the threat for the season's first snowflakes in the metro at bay.

Decent Halloween?

Early signs point to a decent day for Halloween a week from Sunday. The outlook may change...but my early look says clear to partly cloud skies and temps near 50. Not bad for the last day of October!

Hope you got some yard work done today...enjoy the pitter patter of rain that you haven't heard for a month this weekend.

PH

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Metro escapes frost, again

Posted at 8:25 AM on October 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall

Another October morning in the metro, another day without frost.

The temperature bottomed out near 40 degrees in the metro at 5am this morning, above the average of 37 degrees and several degrees above the frost threshold.

That pushes 2010 another day past the October 7th average first 32 degree reading at Twin Cities Airport.

The temp bottomed out BEFORE sunrise today in the metro. This is a bit unusual, as minimum temperatures usually occur just AFTER sunrise on clear calm fall mornings. This morning's wind and a few clouds kept temperatures bouncing around before sunrise today.

It looks like the first "official" frost and 32 degree temp may arrive in the metro by late next week. That would put 2010 in the top 13 latest years for the arrival of the first 32 degree temp in the Twin Cities.

As you can see form the chart above (courtesy Twin Cities NWS) this October is also the driest on record to date. It looks like that will change by early next week.

Pattern change ahead:

Our October weather winning streak continues through Friday with two more dry days in Minnesota. That will run the string to 27 days without measureable rainfall in most of the state.

Look for sun today with highs in the 50s.

More sun and southwest winds return Friday with a shot at 70° for southern Minnesota, and 60s up north.

A low pressure wave will track through Iowa this weekend brining a chance fo scattered showers to southern Minnesota.

A second, and much stronger low, will move in Monday and Tuesday. This second system looks wet, and many areas could see an inch of rain.

Look for much colder weather to follow next week. You may want to speed up those fall chores beofre Saturday.

Enjoy the next 48 hours of fine fall weather!

PH

Amazing October: But changes on the way

Posted at 7:23 AM on October 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

We're leading charmed weather lives in the Upper Midwest these days.

Roses are in full bloom at the Huttner Weather Lab on October 19th.

The (last?) batch of October roses from the weather lab garden.

Our mild October continues the string of warmth that really began in March this year. Temperatures have been significantly warmer than average in Minnesota for 7 of the past 8 months. Only September came in close to average at -0.8°F.

Vibrant fall colors have been easy to enjoy this year.

If October ended today, our average monthly temperature of 58.2°F would make this the 2nd warmest October on record in the Twin Cities. Temperatures are running +6.4°F for the month to date.

Our average first 32° reading at Twin Cities Airport is October 7th. So far the coldest temp has been 38° on October 3rd. It looks like it could be another week before the first widespread killing frost in the Twin Cities, a full three weeks later than average.

October 2009 brought cold and snow to Minnesota. It was the 7th snowiest October on record with 2.8" falling at Twin Cities Airport. Last year I was scarping snow off the weather lab deck in October. It's a stark reminder of how fickle October weather can be in Minnesota.

Snow clad weather lab deck chairs in October 2009.

Pattern change ahead:

The weather maps are showing signs of the inevitable plunge into much colder weather by late next week. Temperatures may run 15 to 20 degrees colder, with highs only in the 30s and 40s statewide by Halloween weekend. Trick or Treat weather may feature a distinct chill in the air this year in Minnesota.

With 60s in the forecast for most of this week, I strongly encourage everyone to enjoy this (last?) spell of late season warmth.

PH

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Forecast 80s: But not Indian Summer yet

Posted at 5:15 PM on October 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

Get ready for summer in October. Just don't call it Indian Summer...yet.

A big ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere has set up shop late this week over the Upper Midwest. What we weather geeks refer to as a "high amplitude jet stream pattern" has set up over the USA. The warmest part or "thermal ridge" will waft through Minnesota over the next 72 hours. Temperatures Thursday PM are in the mid 70s in the metro, upper 70s in western Minnesota and upper 80s in South Dakota today.

The average high for the Twin Cities today is 62 degrees. Temperatures will be running a good 15 to 20 degrees above average in most of Minnesota this weekend.

Even though it's tempting, it's too early to call our October warm spell Indian Summer, at least in the metro. Though there have been several hard freezes in northern Minnesota, there has not been a frost in the core of the metro yet. The coolest temp so far at Twin Cities Airport was 38 degrees last Sunday morning.

And yes, there is a definition for Indian Summer.

From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology:

Indian summer--A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer." It does not occur every year, and in some years there may be two or three Indian summers. The term is most often heard in the northeastern United States, but its usage extends throughout English- speaking countries. It dates back at least to 1778, but its origin is not certain; the most probable suggestions relate it to the way that the American Indians availed themselves of this extra opportunity to increase their winter stores. The comparable period in Europe is termed the Old Wives' summer, and, poetically, may be referred to as halcyon days. In England, dependent upon dates of occurrence, such a period may be called St. Martin's summer, St. Luke's summer, and formerly All-hallown summer.

The term Indian Summer is largely believed to have originated when European settlers observed native Americans using periods of unusually mild weather late in the season to enhance winter food stores and other supplies.

So enjoy the temps pushing 80 Friday and Saturday, but please...please don't pull the "Indian Summer" card just yet. You might get some over zealous weather geek correcting you on the spot.

PH

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Frosty weekend: And perfect TC Marathon weather

Posted at 5:15 PM on October 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

Time to cover those Super Petunas.

The first frost advisories of the year are flying this weekend across Minnesota.

A crisp, refreshing (and frosty) Canadian air mass has invaded Minnesota right on schedule for the first weekend of October. Wait...let me say that again...OCTOBER! Okay...It took a little more effort than I expected to type that word.

The deep freeze will plunge temperatures into the 20s in the northern half of Minnesota this weekend. A frosty coating will likely cover most of southern Minnesota by Sunday morning, as temps dip into the 30s.

Frost advisories include central Minnesota Saturday morning.

Freeze warnings are flying for the Iron Range and BWCAW area.

In southern Minnesota it looks like the best chance of the season's first frost will come Sunday morning.

The chilly weekend will come with mostly clear nights and sunny days.

Perfect TC Marathon weather?

If you're a runner, you may love the forecast for Sunday morning. Look for clear skies, plenty of sunshine and a crisp cool temperature in the 30s at sunrise Sunday morning.

Temperatures should warm through the 40s and into the 50s by late morning. This could be one of the best weather days ever for the Twin Cities Marathon.

Warm up next week:

All signs point to a return of mild air for Minnesota next week. Temperatures should crack the 70s once again by mid week. With the trees near peak fall color next week (and few mosquitoes after a potential frost) this could be one of the best stretches of weather of the year in Minnesota.

It may also give farmers another stretch of warm dry weather to get in the fields and collect the harvest.

70s may return next week!
(click for bigger image)

Enjoy the crisp October weekend!

PH

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Friday cold front packs a punch

Posted at 4:45 PM on September 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Fall

Get ready for a shot of cool crisp Canadian air.

The season's strongest cold front will blow through Minnesota Friday. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will bring a frost threat to much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

It's time to dig out some little used weather adjectives like crisp, bracing, frigid, frosty, and refreshing.

The invigorating air mass will plunge temps into the 30s for much of southern Minnesota by Sunday morning, with temps in the 20s up north. You will want to cover up any sensitive plants to protect from frost this weekend.

The front may sport a few showers as it moves through Friday.

The cabin closing air mass will keep highs in the 50s on Saturday with temps recovering into the 60s Sunday.

Short lived cold snap:

If you like warm weather, the good news is the cold spell will be brief. Warmer southerly winds will kick in by Monday, and temperatures could push into the 70s again early next week. The milder pattern will return, and Minnesota may see above average temps for the next 10 days.

PH

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September's finest

Posted at 5:00 PM on September 29, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Fall color

Wednesday had to be the best day of the fall for many Minnesotans...so far.

Fall color popping along Ridgewood Road in Minnetonka.
Photos by Paul Huttner. (Click for bigger images)

Plenty of sunshine graced (most of) Minnesota's skies today, with temperatures shooting up into the 70s in many areas. The exception is Minnesota's Arrowhead and North Shore, where clouds and spotty showers roll through with a cold front.

Anatomy of a cold front:

Check out this high resolution MODIS terra satellite image from the University of Wisconsin Wednesday.

You can clearly see the tail of clouds riding along with a cold front as it approaches the Twin Cities in mid-afternoon. If you look closely, you can notice the Minnesota River looks quite swollen southwest of the Twin Cities. This is the flood in action as viewed from space.

Family of fronts:

Wednesday's cool front is the first in a family of fronts that will sweep colder air into Minnesota by this weekend.

Many locations, including the Twin Cities may see our first frost of the fall by Sunday morning.

And now for your Weather Lab gratuitous sunset shot of the week.

Classic sunset over Gale Island on Lake Minnetonka Monday.

PH

Metro Frost? (Plus amazing Chaska flood video)

Posted at 8:10 AM on September 29, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall

We may not need to be reminded that it's October this weekend.

A shot of cool Canadian air will pour south starting Friday, and we could see the first frost of the year in parts of the metro this weekend.

While we may escape a killing frost in the core of the metro, temperatures may dive into the 30s on Saturday and Sunday morning across much of eastern Minnesota, including the north and east Twin Cities area.

Here's a look at the computer runs for weekend lows.

Temps may dive into the 30s Sunday AM.
(click for bigger image)

This is close to the average date for the season's first frost in the metro. The average date for the frost 32 degree reading for MSP Airport is October 7th. Here are some average frost dates for other metro locations.

Frost dates courtesy Minnesota Climate Working Group.

It appears temps will likely rebound again next week after our brief early October chill this weekend.

Flood caught on video:

This is a time lapse video of Chaska's Athletic park flooding by the Minnesota River. This video shows September 27, 2010 from 6am - 7:30pm. Pretty amazing stuff! No baseball today...

PH