Thursday thunder threat; 1st 90 by Friday? Extreme storms way up in MN

Posted at 6:16 PM on May 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change

Quick look forecast: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

30% chance of scattered T-Storms Thursday

"Hot Front" pushes in Friday

90 degrees 1st metro 90 of 2012 possible Friday

Upper 90s possible in western Minnesota Friday!

Record warmth? 91/89 record highs at MSP Friday & Saturday

Taste of July Steamy temps more like July Friday & Saturday

Saturday night thunder - approaching cold front will spark storms Saturday night

Minnesota: Land of 10,000 extreme storms? Extreme rainfall events on the rise

All about waterspouts Excellent video and story from NOAA on these beautifully dangerous water twisters below

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Thusrday Thunder Chance:

After 3 absolutely splendid, "chamber of commerce" type weather days in Minnesota, a warm front is pushing north early Thursday. The front is being pushed along by a "low level jet stream" ... a river of faster moving air about 5,000 feet above ground.

Low level jets are notorious for triggering "nocturnal" thunderstorms at night along warm frontal boundaries. Although upstream low level moisture is limited and should limit any severe threat, the front could spark a few "high based" T-Storms early Thursday morning riding eastward from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

Coverage may be spotty, but expect a few rumblers around Thursday.

"Hot Front" Friday:

Remeber the "extreme heat" in the Desert Southwest this week? A narrow plume of that "Continental Tropical" air mass is being injected ahead of low pressure into Minnesota Friday. Temps may soar as high as the upper 90s in many western Minnesota towns such as Canby, Madison, Ortonville and Pipestone.

Source: NWS

The Twin Cities may have a shot at our 1st 90 degree days of 2012 Friday, and possibly again Saturday.

Source: ISU

Where's the beach?

Saturday night Thunder:

The next cold front will cut into our summer weeknd air mass Saturday night. As it does, a band of thunderstorms should rumble eastward. Locally heavy rainfall could accompany some of the storms, especially in central and northern Minnesota.

Minnesota: Land of 10,000 extreme storms? Extreme rainfall events on the rise

We've known for years that extreme rainfall events are on the rise in Minnesota. My MPR colleague and UM climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley has talked amny times about the increase in extreme rainfall in Minnesota.

A new study released from a climate group in Colorado finds the rise in extreme rainfall events of 3" or more in Minnesota has doubled in the past decade, and that the storms now reccur about every 3 years, instead of every 7 years decades ago.

Source: Rocky Mountain Climate Organization

Here's an excerpt from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization study.

Since 1961, the Midwest has had an increasing number of large storms. The largest of storms, those of three inches or more of precipitation in a single day, increased the most, with their annual frequency having more than doubled over the 51 years.

Source: Rocky Mountain Climate Organization

All About Waterspouts:

Finally, check out this remarkably visual and infomrative video on waterspouts from NOAA. Pretty cool stuff!

Make it a great Thursday!

PH

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Comments (1)

Why file this under "Climate Change" when 2012 is only one year after the 2010/2011 winter, one of the longest-lasting in recent memory?

IMO the early warmth of 2012 is simple the result of an anomalously low Canadian snowpack during the winter of 2011/2012, itself an extrapolation of the drought of late-2011 -- contrast with the heavy precipitation in late autumn 2010 which set the stage for a lengthy winter.

Posted by Mike Schneider | May 17, 2012 2:18 AM

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