Solar minimum

Posted at 4:40 PM on January 5, 2009 by Paul Huttner (8 Comments)

NASA SOHO image shows a blank sun without sunspots, an indication of "solar minimum."

It's a quiet sun these days.

We are between sunspot cycles as we begin 2009. And we hit what most sun wathcers regard as "solar minimum" in 2008. In fact 2008 was the least active sunspot year since 1913!

Astronomers watch an 11 year sunspot cycle that has been very regular since the 1700's. The last peak was in 2001 when there were 150-175 sunspots observed on the sun. 2008 was closer to 6, with a "blank sun" 266 days last year!

The current lull between solar cycle 23 and 24 seems alarming, but experts point out that the low sunspot numbers and duration are very normal between solar cycles. The next cycle is forecast to peak in about 2012. Astronomers are watching for an increase in sunspots in 2009 as we begin the new cycle.

Solar activity does have an impact on our weather and climate. Current thinking from climate experts like Dr. Kerry Emanuel from MIT is that while solar variability does have an impact on the earth's global temperature; human induced greenhouse gasses exert about 5 times the climate forcing effect when compared with solar variability.

That might explain why 2008, the least active sunspot year in the past 95 years, was still the 10th warmest year globally even though it was slightly cooler than the past decade. It will be interesting to see what happens to our global temperatures in the next 5 years as the new solar cycle kicks into thigh gear.

PH

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Comments (8)

Keeping in mind that windmills are hazardous to birds, be wary of the unintended consequences of believing and contributing to the all-knowing environmental lobby groups.
Water vapour is the most important green house gas followed by methane. The third important greenhouse gas is CO2, and it does not correlate well with global warming or cooling either; in fact, CO2 in the atmosphere trails warming which is clear natural evidence for its well-studied inverse solubility in water: CO2 dissolves in cold water and bubbles out of warm water. The equilibrium in seawater is very high, making seawater a great 'sink'; CO2 is 34 times more soluble in water than air is soluble in water.
Correlation is not causation to be sure. The causation has been studied, however, and while the radiation from the sun varies only in the fourth decimal place, the magnetism is awesome.
Using a box of air in a Copenhagen lab, physicists traced the growth of clusters of molecules of the kind that build cloud condensation nuclei. These are specks of sulphuric acid on which cloud droplets form. High-energy particles driven through the laboratory ceiling by exploded stars far away in the Galaxy - the cosmic rays - liberate electrons in the air, which help the molecular clusters to form much faster than climate scientists have modeled in the atmosphere. That may explain the link between cosmic rays, cloudiness and climate change.
As I understand it, the hypothesis of the Danish National Space Center goes as follows:
Quiet sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux # reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect #more heat reflected# → colder climate
Active sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux # solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo #less heat reflected# → warmer climate
That is how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with #modulated by# sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool.
The ultimate cause of the solar magnetic cycle may be cyclicity in the Sun-Jupiter centre of gravity. We await more on that. In addition, although the post 60s warming period is over, it has allowed the principal green house gas, water vapour, to kick in with humidity, clouds, rain and snow depending on where you live to provide the negative feedback that scientists use to explain the existence of complex life on Earth for 550 million years. The planet heats and cools naturally and our gasses are the thermostat.
Check the web site of the Danish National Space Center.

Posted by Francis Tucker Manns, PH.D., P.Geo. (Ontario) | January 6, 2009 5:38 AM

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I sure hope that Dr. Kerry Emanuel was misquoted or taken out of content.

We've only been able to measure solar variability for a couple of decades and have no idea if solar variance has been responsible for the wide-range of climate Earth has endured over the eons (and can't be blamed on man!).

To think that the Sun will remain within tight bounds simply because that is the only thing we have observed in this short time is absurd. We don't even understand the interaction of solar radiance, solar wind, the significance of sunspots and other related solar phenomena on our weather.

What we do know is that sunspots and climate have an 80% correlation, regardless of what CO2 levels are, and Earth has been in an Ice Age with CO2 levels more than an order of magnitude greater than today.

To make a flat statement that CO2 is significantly more climate forcing than the Sun would bring a room full of gaffaws at any of the science conferences I've attended.

Posted by Jtom | January 6, 2009 6:32 AM

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Jtom:

Thanks for the comment.

I will post the graphic Kerry Emanuel sent me which compares the climate forcing effect of solar, volcanic and greenhouse gasses on the blog in the coming days. I can't figure out how to do it in this reply. Yes, greenhouse gasses (not JUST CO2) have a much greater forcing effect than solar variability according to Kerry and the IPCC report.

Actually we do have good records of sunspot activity going back to at least 1600, which is a lot more than just "a couple of decades."Please see the link below. The sunspot cycles have been remarkably consisten since about 1715.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm

more on this topic later...it's a great point of discussion!

PH

Posted by Paul Huttner | January 6, 2009 5:26 PM

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Dr. Manns:

Very interesting post, thank you.

I will check out the Danish Space Center site.

PH

Posted by Paul Huttner | January 6, 2009 5:29 PM

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The question to ask is this: how many years (decades!) of cooling will we have to endure before Global Warming is finally forgotten or ridiculed in public?

Posted by Steve Clemmons | January 10, 2009 2:34 AM

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When I went to the trouble to post four or five preeminent sites on the magnetic sun/climate (with brief explanations about what they were about) and my comment doesn't get posted, I have real questions about fairness.

Posted by davidgmills | January 14, 2009 8:02 PM

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Where I have a problem is the degee of politics that has overtaken the the whole global warming issue. Expending billions (trillions?) of dollars, euros, ruppees, whatever, by governments chasing the chimera of HGW is outrageous.

I think, and I might have read too many Tom Clancy novels over the years, that this is all part of a larger scheme in the Dialectic to force more government and central planning on the gobal "proletariat."

It has no place in science, research, or education, but there it is.

Posted by Michael Lyle | January 16, 2009 6:25 AM

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I guess my second post didn't make it either.

Posted by davidgmills | January 18, 2009 7:51 AM

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