Updraft: December 2007 Archive

Waiting is over

Posted at 9:04 AM on December 1, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Mother Nature has delivered as promised! Snow will fall heavily throughout the day across much of the state. There will be a mixture of sleet and freezing rain moving north from the Iowa state line this afternoon.

If you are following the snowfall intensity on radar, you might notice some brighter returns. The yellow color on the National Weather Service Radar indicates the area of ice pellets or freezing precipitation. Just north of that band is where the heaviest snow is likely falling.
Weather Radar

Also, when viewing the surface reports, visibilities of a half mile or less suggest snow is accumulating at the rate of an inch an hour.
Hourly weather observations

Check out Paul Huttner's previous blog on the predicted snow amounts.
CE

Storm Ramps Up

Posted at 1:48 PM on December 1, 2007 by Paul Huttner

Some interesting trends this afternoon with our first big winter storm of the season.

Snow Trends:
Good snow now across most of Minnesota, stretching all the way from the Canadian border to south of the metro, where it changes to sleet and freezing rain. 3 inches of SLEET has fallen at Albert Lea, and freezing rain has been coming down for the past two hours at Rochester. Roads are no doubt icy along the I-90 corridor and in much of southern Minnesota. They will stay that way thorugh this evening at least.

At 2pm Deephaven in the West Metro has 3.3" on the ground, and Eden Prairie has 3.6". Check the latest snow totals from NWS below.

Latest Snow Totals

Snowfall Rates:

At 2pm moderate snow is falling in the metro with visibilities of between 1/2 and 1/4 mile at times. There will be little lulls and bursts in snowfall intensity as is common in winter storms. At these visibilities, snowfall rates in the metro should be between 1/2 and 1 inch per hour through 5pm tonight.

Latest Minnseota hourly roundup

Dry Slot:
There is a little wedge of drier air punching into west central MN. This has shut off the snow in places like Marshall and Redwood Falls west of the metro. As this drier punch move in this evening, we may see the snow let up between 5 and 7pm.

Twin Cities Radar Loop

Overall I' think we're still on track with 5" to isolated 10" totals in most of the metro. The heaviest totals may be in the south and east metro. There is already 3" down in much of the metro at 2pm, so if we can hold the snow through 7pm at least we should end up there.

If you have snow totals please send them along to me at weather@mpr.org.

Let it snow!

PH

One More Wave

Posted at 6:10 PM on December 1, 2007 by Paul Huttner

Next wave of snow mixing with sleet as it moves through metro this evening.

Twin Cities radar loop

Should see another 1" to 3" tonight, bringing storms total snow in the metro into the 5" to 8" range, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Check below for snow total summaries from Twin Cities NWS which are updated as reports come in.

Snow reports

Skiiers and snowboarders will delight at conditions on the slopes this weekend.

Enjoy the snow!

PH

Winding down

Posted at 10:15 PM on December 1, 2007 by Paul Huttner

Plenty of snow to play in now. Plenty of ice to the south.

Here are the latest totals.

Enjoy the new snow!

Twin Cities NWS snow totals

Duluth NWS snow totals

La Crosse NWS snow and ice totals

Location, location, location...timing

Posted at 8:20 AM on December 3, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Forecasting the elements is what we do. To be accurate we have to first match the weather with a location, then the degree of magnitude, followed by the timing. Our success pretty much can be compared with selling or buying a house. As real estate agents often proclaim, it’s about location, location, location. But timing has been more critical to the housing market.

Saturday’s snowfall was the heaviest well north of the metro, due in large part to the shift of the major weathermaking parameters being pushed north. Snow, by my prediction on Friday, also started a little earlier.

You’ll find plenty of recreational quality snow across the state, with the greatest depth towards Duluth and the North Shore.

Tuesday’s snow brings another challenge of location, magnitude and timing. Our Monday morning analysis suggests the snow will begin overnight in the Red River Valley and then expand southeast. A surface low, initiating snow development, will move to near Sioux Falls at midday, placing the heaviest snow accumulation from about Grand Forks to the Twin Cities through the day on Tuesday.

If timing is good, the snowfall will not begin to glaze up roadways in the metro until after the Tuesday morning rush hour. A steady snowfall could tally up to four inches by dark.
Graphical forecast

Snow is likely to continue tracking southeast Tuesday afternoon. If your travels take you into Wisconsin you might encounter a challenging drive down I-94. I expect it to be icey-dicey between Minneapolis/St. Paul and Fargo.
CE

Clipped

Posted at 11:40 AM on December 4, 2007 by Paul Huttner

This is not your average Alberta Clipper. This one is on steroids.

The average Alberta Clipper produces 1 to 3 inches of dry fluffy snow. This one may lay down 3 to 5 inches, and some isolated spots may see a bit more.

There are a couple of reasons why this one is pumped up.

-Big time temperature contrast: It's in the 50s in western South Dakota today, and it's below zero north of the border in southern Ontario. This 50+ degree temperature contrast is fuel for the storm to work with.

-Moisture feed from the Pacific: This storm is getting a little extra help from the storms that have been pounding the Pacific Northwest.

-Long duration: It will snow for more than 12 hours in parts of the state. That's why some areas may see 6 inches or more.

Rush hour will be a mess in the Twin Cities this afternoon.

Track the latest snow trends below, and enjoy the snow if you can!

Twin Cities NWS storm info.

Duluth lake effect

Posted at 5:28 PM on December 4, 2007 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)

Check out the narrow band of intense lake effect snow streaming into Duluth off of Lake Superior on Doppler radar. They have 13 inches in West Duluth!

Duluth NWS Doppler radar loop.

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Your daddy's winter

Posted at 7:20 AM on December 5, 2007 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Remember the stories?

"When I was a kid the snow was waist deep. It came in December and didn't melt until Easter. We had to walk two miles to school and the drifts we're THIS high...."

It's starting to look like an old fashioned winter in Minnesota. This is the third snowiest December on record so far in the Twin Cities. Most of the state is sporting a thick snow cover now, and in places like Duluth and the North Shore it's beginning to look like the start of a new ice age.

Snowy December start

After a chilly break today, another "weak" system will deposit another 1 to 3 inches of snow on most of Minnesota and surrounding areas Thursday. Again, there could be some isolated higher totals.

The next system moves in Saturday with another chance of snow. Then another chance of snow appears possible next Wednesday.

A white Christmas looks to be a sure thing this year. No major thaw in sight for the next two weeks. That’s good news for those of us looking to play in the snow, or get into the holiday spirit!

PH

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Inauguration to the Northland

Posted at 12:47 PM on December 5, 2007 by Craig Edwards

I had been cautioned by my Hoosier colleagues about the long winter seasons experienced in the Northland. As I drove north through Madison on Dec. 3, 1991, Old Man Winter rolled out the white carpet.

Traveling westbound on I-94 was harrowing, as an icy wind blew fine snow crystals across the highway in the late afternoon. Arriving in Bloomington after dark, I pulled into a motel lot hoping to negotiate a parking spot near an outside electrical outlet. Snow was pushed three feet high along the border of the building. After a little digging by hand, I got lucky and found a buried outlet to provide power to my engine heater.

It was noteworthy to view the weather highlight on the NWS Web page yesterday, which listed the record low as -11 on Dec. 4, 1991. Yes, my first day as NOAA’s chief meteorologist for the Twin Cities remains an historical event, if only related to weather records.

In my 15 years at the helm of the NWS I don’t recall one show-stopping snow storm where school was canceled in Minneapolis/St. Paul. On a couple of occasions the governor did cancel classes statewide due to brutal cold.

As Paul Huttner noted in his morning blog, this is more like your daddy’s winter.
December snowfall.

Instant meteorological winter

Posted at 7:01 AM on December 6, 2007 by Paul Huttner

"Meteorological" winter began on Dec. 1. Boy, did somebody take that date literally!

We call the months of December through February "meteorological winter" for record-keeping purposes, even though astronomical winter begins at 12:08 a.m. CST on Dec. 22.

Today will be our third snow event in the past six days in Minnesota. This one looks weaker than the other two, but will still lay down a patchwork of 1" to 2" in the metro, and maybe as much as 3" near the Iowa border by tonight.

Last night was the coldest night of the season so far in most of Minnesota. Twin Cities International Airport hit 0. Eden Prairie was -5 and Lakeville -15. Embarrass took the cake at
-24.

Subzero cold last night

You may have noticed it was warmer today when you woke up than when you went to bed last night. That's because our clear skies and calm air over a fresh deep snowpack last night made for perfect conditions for radiational cooling. As clouds moved in early this morning, temps began to rise. The clouds literally act as a blanket on winter nights, trapping heat near the earth's surface.

Hutchinson temps rise overnight from -9 to 18 degrees!

Enjoy our rise into the low 20s today. After last night it will feel downright balmy!

Adverse weather days...winter is the time

Posted at 11:17 PM on December 6, 2007 by Mark Seeley

This terminology is used by general contractors in the construction trades. In fact, contracts often have built-in stipulations pertaining to the effects of adverse weather conditions on scheduled completion of work.

Contractors use local weather statistics, usually from NOAA, to determine the mean number of days each month that may obstruct work progress or cause delays. Such disruptions are factored into the project work schedules. These adverse weather days may be associated with storm fronts, excessive wetness, extreme wind, or extreme temperature conditions.

When the number of adverse weather days exceeds the climatological average for a specific location, the contractor may request an extension to the work schedule. In this approach to contracting, historical climate is factored into the planned completion schedule for each phase of a project, especially those that will take months to years to reach completion.

I suspect such an approach has been taken with construction of the new Gopher football stadium, as well as the new Twins baseball stadium. Generally the mean number of adverse weather days is higher during the winter season, especially in northern climates like Minnesota.

Radiating heat

Posted at 8:26 AM on December 7, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Snow cover this early December is allowing temperatures to drop overnight to very frigid readings when skies clear and the air goes nearly calm. During the day, snow reflects the heat of the sunshine back into space. The albedo of fresh snow can result in a 90 percent reflection of solar energy.

The layer of greenhouse gases works to moderate the daily temperatures, both with incoming solar energy and outgoing radiation from the earth.

Clouds are even more effective in restricting the outgoing nighttime radiation. As noted in Paul Huttner’s blog on Thursday morning, when clouds moved in on Wednesday night the temperature rose at the surface when there was really no change in air masses. Outside my weather lab the thermometer went from -11 at midnight to 17 above by sunrise.

With daylight continuing to shorten, and sunset at its earliest, darkness falls early. Temperatures by early Saturday morning, absent cloud cover, will be in the teens below zero in the northland. Thermometers positioned at observing sites located in a valley will read the coldest, where the cold air prefers to settle.
CE

Light pillars

Posted at 3:38 PM on December 7, 2007 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)

Interesting phenomenon this morning around the metro and much of Minnesota. Pillars of light refracting up through ice crystals or "diamond dust" above streetlights.

Check out the explanation here.

Twin Cities NWS explains light pillars

PH

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Seven-year cold

Posted at 7:09 AM on December 10, 2007 by Paul Huttner

If it feels a little Nanook out there you're right. By many measures it hasn't been this cold in seven years.

December's average (mean) temperature in the Twin Cities has been 11.8 degrees. That's 11.0 degrees below average for the month so far.

Click on Twin Cities "CF6" climate data for December

That's the coldest stretch of temperatures since December of 2000, when the average temp for that month was 7.6 degrees.

Today is day 14 in a row below average here in the metro. It's also the 14th consecutive day below freezing.

The deep freeze will moderate a bit this week, with highs pushing into the 20s.

We're getting off lucky, though, in Minnesota this week. A huge multi-state ice storm will cripple much of the Midwest to our south. Ice up to an inch thick will snap power lines and glaze roadways from Kansas to Missouri, Iowa and Illinois all the way east to Pennsylvania.

Iowa ice storm

PH

Afternoon sunshine versus the wind

Posted at 1:41 PM on December 10, 2007 by Craig Edwards

There is a battle this afternoon for control of the sensible temperature. If you are in the sunshine, shaded from the wind, wearing dark color clothing, you may be sensing an outdoor temperature of about 35 degrees.

If, on the other hand, you are positioned in a shaded area, exposed to the wind, you are likely shivering in a feels-like temperature in the single digits.

I’m fortunate to have windows with southern exposure, not by design at the time. The low sun angle allows sunshine to penetrate well into the living space, thus providing some passive solar heat. Even though the outside thermometer is reading in the teens, my indoor temperature through much of the house is in the lower 70s, without the assistance of the furnace.

Now I’ll admit that in the kitchen, on the north side of the house, it is only 62 degrees. But it gives me a reason not to keep going to the refrigerator for comfort food.

After a morning stroll, with the temperature about five degrees, I’m staying indoors this afternoon, enjoying a warm spot like an innately clever kitty-cat.
CE

Ice storm

Posted at 7:08 AM on December 11, 2007 by Paul Huttner

Major ice storm conditions continue today to our south.

Ice storm warnings are out for parts of 8 states from Oklahoma all the way to Michigan.

Ice storm warnings map

As many as 18 are dead, 15 of those in car accidents. More than 600,000 are without power now, and that number may climb to more than a million today as the weight of ice snaps trees and power lines.

Ice storms are more common to our south in the central Midwest, where the cold air near the surface is shallower than here in Minnesota. Warmer air aloft produces rain that freezes on contact in the cold air at the surface.

How freezing rain forms

PH

Teetering on disaster

Posted at 1:35 PM on December 11, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Weather headlines are being made from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes today, while the upper Midwest enjoys a day that is seasonal. Kansas City was teetering on the brink of disaster as more than an inch and half of moisture fell with the temperature holding very close to the thawing point this afternoon.

Amazing how a single degree can tip the scale from treachery to a major calamity. The mercury climbed to 33 degrees late this morning and has been hovering there into the afternoon. A cold rain will continue into the darkness when the temperature will once again fall below freezing.

A close friend was doing business in Topeka and phoned me last evening about the chances of flying out of Kansas City back to Minneapolis today. His originally scheduled departure was canceled and he is rolling the dice with hopes of becoming airborne this evening.

It’s that time of year when frantic schedules can be seriously disrupted by acts of nature. Unfortunately, when frustration takes over it’s hard to accept that in some cases nature has the final word.
CE

Hoarfrosty morning

Posted at 7:00 AM on December 12, 2007 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)

It’s a winter wonderland outside the Weather Lab this morning. The trees are frocked in white, looking like an early Christmas present today.

It's called "hoarfrost." It happens when ice crystals are deposited directly on surfaces like trees and fences that are exposed to the humid sub-freezing air.

Hoarfrost defined

Hoarfrost photo

Conditions were perfect overnight with ice fog around the metro, and as you wake this morning take a look out and enjoy the beautiful Currier and Ives display around the metro.

PH

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Arctic Sea: Ice free summers by 2012?

Posted at 8:32 AM on December 12, 2007 by Paul Huttner

Arctic Sea ice hits new record low

Pendulum poised to swing?

Posted at 1:16 PM on December 12, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Well, is the pendulum about to swing? Currently, we find ourselves ten degrees below normal for the first 11 days of December with another surge of chilly air arriving for the start of the weekend! But, if you have any confidence in the longer range outlook from the National Weather Service, we may be on the brink of a transition to milder air over the northern Plains and the Great Lakes.

Eight to fourteen day outlook

With a snow drought in December of 2006 we began the month some eight degrees below normal in the Twin Cities. By month’s end, minus a decent snow cover, the record book documented a departure from the 30 year average of more than ten degrees on the plus side of normal. Quite a turn around as the daylight continued to shorten.

Less than a week from now we may find ourselves playing host to temperatures above the 30 year average. But this time the return of milder air will have to make its way over a layer of snow. Weather watchers have learned that milder air meandering over a coating of icy snow favors the formation of a damp dense fog.

So while the outlook tilts the odds towards above normal temperatures over much of the nation, be cautious about feeling the warmth. A gray misty day with a high of 30 may go down as warmer than normal, but not necessarily be a reason to celebrate.
CE

Brighter days ahead

Posted at 7:15 AM on December 13, 2007 by Paul Huttner

I love December 16th.

That's the day when our sunset starts getting later. When you're a weather geek like me, you notice these kinds of things. Yes, I read the sunrise and sunset calendars, sometimes plan my vacation by the moon phases, and I'm a real hoot at cocktail parties.

You might think the earliest sunset and latest sunrise would come on the winter solstice, which occurs this year at 12:08am on Saturday December 22nd. But due to a quirk in the earth's orbit and axis, sunset starts getting later on December 16th, and sunrise occurs earlier until after the solstice. Total daylight balances out on December 22nd, the shortest daylight of the year. Then the overall daylight begins to increase.

Earth's orbital quirks explained

December solar data fro the Twin Cities

So if you're like me you'll celebrate this Sunday December 16th. I'm up before sunrise most days, but I'm still a sunset kind of guy. Call me a desperate Minnesotan, but I'll grab on to any glimmer of hope I can this time of the year!

PH

Historical probabilites of a White Christmas in the MPR network

Posted at 11:16 AM on December 13, 2007 by Mark Seeley

As we anticipate some moderation in temperatures the week before Christmas, we may lose some of the regional snow cover. Still it looks like most within the range of MPR broadcasts will likely see a White Christmas.

The National Climatic Data Center provides a data base showing the historical probabilities for a White Christmas, defined as at least 1 inch of snow cover on December 25th. The probability of a White Christmas for some of the specific MPR network stations can be calculated from this data base: Each is shown below:

KNCM (88.5FM)-Appleton 60% KNBJ (91.3FM)-Bemidji 85%
KNOW (91.1FM)-Twin Cities 75% KNBJ (88.1FM)-International Falls 100%
KLNI (88.7FM)-Decorah, IA 55% WSCN (100.5FM)-Duluth/Superior 100%
KXLC (91.1FM)-La Cresecent/La Crosse 70% KCCD (90.3FM)-Moorhead 80%
KZSE (90.7FM)-Rochester 65% KNSR (88.9FM)-St Cloud/Collegeville 75%
KNGA (91.5FM)-St Peter/Mankato 70% KNTN (102.7FM)-Thief River Falls 85%
WIRN (92.5)-Virginia/Hibbing 95% KNSW (91.7FM)-Worthington/Marshall 75%
WLSN (89.7FM)-Grand Marais 100% WGGL (91.1FM)-Houghton, MI 100%

Speaking of White Christmas, some of our cultural values and expectations, whether weather-related or not, have evolved from religious beliefs and some from secular traditions. These are detailed in a new book by Bruce Forbes called "Christmas: A Candid History"...I highly recommend this book if you are interested in the history of this holiday.

Not official, but it counts

Posted at 11:22 AM on December 14, 2007 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)

I was bemused when monitoring national press coverage of ice storm earlier this week from Oklahoma to Indiana. Journalist favored a closing sound bite, noting that the official start of winter was still ten days away. Nature operates on her own time table!

While the shortest daylight hours occur on December 22nd, it is a stretch to equate this late December day with the official start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperatures have been down right nippy, when not bitterly cold in much of Minnesota since the waning days of November.

Meteorologists, in an attempt to simplify historical records, cluster the three month period of December through February as the winter season. Indeed, experiencing snowfall, icy winds and sub zero temperatures the last couple of weeks, I’d say winter’s arrival coincided with the meteorologist’s rationale.

To proclaim that the official start of winter comes on the Winter Solstice is to equate the official start of the holiday shopping season on Black Friday. Plenty of shopping takes place well before the Friday after Thanksgiving and a decent amount of winter occurs before the daylight begins to lengthen.

Would it be too arrogant to suggest that journalist call winter when they see it, not assigning the season a specific start up date? From where I sit, I have a hard time believing that the first two weeks of December 2007 could be accurately referred to as late autumn.
CE

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One for the team

Posted at 7:16 AM on December 17, 2007 by Craig Edwards

My brother in southern Wisconsin reached out with a long left jab on Saturday night. He phoned to report the forecast of one to three inches of snow was up to six inches on his back deck. Portions of southern Wisconsin, including Milwaukee, have received more than 20 inches of snow this month.

The most recent weekend snowstorm from the Great Lakes to New England was likely a welcome sight to winter recreationalists. Journalists tend to expose the drama of disrupted travel plans, but with the height of the storm coming on the weekend it was most thrilling for those who enjoy sledding, skiing and snowboarding.

Last year at this time, the ground was still exposed in much of Minnesota. While we could use some freshening up of the snow cover, precipitation this week looks to be minimal.

December snowfall ranges from around 20 inches in the proximity of Lake Superior to as little as four inches in southwest Minnesota.

Interactive National snow cover

A few flurries are possible, but nothing of consequence is showing up on the weather maps for the work week. But stay tuned, you never know when a forecast of only flurries turns into one to three inches!
CE

In harmony

Posted at 11:29 AM on December 18, 2007 by Craig Edwards

While traveling through Wisconsin last weekend it was wonderful to behold the beauty of nature that presented a picture of tranquility. Seems we just don’t understand, in this fast pace, giddy-up, environment of holiday hustle and bustle that we might be better off in harmony with the changing seasons.

Indeed, we don’t need to remain homebound or inactive, but life changes when the cold darkness of winter sets in. Some critters actually hibernate. Landscapes become dormant. Icy roads slow down traffic. City folks sometimes find it hard to cope with weather elements that are beyond our control.

This little lull from Old Man winter allows us to appreciate the season. When we think of weather highlights for 2007, would you consider today’s relatively mild temperatures a noteworthy entry in your journal?

Not one to be an alarmist, but when it comes to a busy travel weekend, it is incumbent to share the drama of a potential snow event somewhere nearby Minnesota on Saturday. We still could use the moisture following a very dry November. Refreshing the snow cover for Christmas would be nice as well.

National Hazards Outlook
CE

Weak Synoptic Environment

Posted at 1:41 PM on December 18, 2007 by Paul Huttner

It's called a weak synoptic environment.

That's what we call it when there are no big pressure systems tearing at Minnesota. The result can be some nice weather in much of the year. But when we're in winter, the light winds and stagnant air can make for some air quality issues.

That's when MPCA issues air quality alerts like they did today. The AQI (Air Quality Index) considers four pollutant types. Ground level ozone, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulates. Several MPCA monitors around the state measure these pollutants.

MPCA Air Quality Index

Today the culprits are fine particulates. They come from things like wood smoke and other sources, so it may be best to light the fireplace after the winds kick up again on Friday night.

PH

Irreconcilable differences

Posted at 7:12 AM on December 19, 2007 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

The Weather Lab models don't seem to agree about much when it comes to our chances for snow this week.

Take the GFS. Uncertain, quirky and mercurial. Not really able to settle on a particular track for the surface low. Not sure of two split storm centers or one. If we are to believe the GFS, it will snow, some, on Friday and into Saturday. The split pattern of two upper low centers usually produces lighter snow amounts for southern Minnesota, with more up north in the northern stream and more to the south.

GFS model forecast 6am Saturday

Then there's the NAM. Bold, certain, loud and quite possibly wrong. It keeps the storm center more compact and together as it tracks into Iowa late Friday night. This kind of a solution generally produces a band of heavier snow in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

NAM forecast for 6am Saturday

The NAM has seemed to move just a little toward the GFS solution over the past 24 hours.

When meteorologists try to forecast snow storms, we watch for (and hope for!) day to day and run to run consistency in the computer output. No such luck this time.

Suffice to say if you are planning pre holiday travel Friday afternoon through Saturday, be ready for some snow. How much? We'll have to let the NAM, GFS and friends fight that out for a while longer.

PH

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Fog lingers on the crystal ball

Posted at 2:26 PM on December 19, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Unintentional delivery of misinformation is a clever alibi for an ever changing weather forecast. Every now and then a meteorologist has to stick his or her neck out for a long range forecast on a busy travel period. We rely on multiple computer models to formulate our best guest, knowing that activity in the laboratory is always a work in progress.

Earlier this week our best computer models were strongly hinting at a troublesome weather event from Minnesota to Michigan on Saturday. Today, the fog is starting to lift from the crystal ball. It now appears that Mother Nature has decided to perform the splits. The heaviest precipitation may move well south of the Great Lakes.

While some snow is still possible Friday night into Saturday it does not look to present much of a calamity. But there is still time for shifts in the weather pattern, so don’t stray too far from a source of weather information.

As chief meteorologist Paul Huttner noted in the previous blog there are some inconsistencies in how the evolution of weather parameters will shake out on the weekend. Don’t cancel any travel plans, but remain flexible.
CE

High Bust Potential

Posted at 7:01 AM on December 20, 2007 by Paul Huttner

I don't like this weekend's potential storm system.

Meteorologists like nice neat little packages when forecasting a storm. This pre-Christmas weather gift looks like a 2 year old wrapped it. The NWS folks in Chanhassen aptly called it "problematic" in their early morning forecast discussion.

Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion

At least the computers agree on a "split" solution to the "storm" with northern and southern branches. This should prevent the potential blizzard scenario some of the models painted earlier in the week.

The NAM model, which stubbornly predicted a stronger more compact storm, has finally come into line with the GFS's thinking about two separate centers. Now the NAM is hinting that the northern stream may stall enough to keep snow going most of Saturday and let a few inches pile up from Duluth to the Twin Cities. The GFS is not impressed, keeping the system "progressive" and hinting at limited snowfall amounts in the metro to an inch or two, with a bit more up north.

I still like the GFS solution for now, but I don't like the looks of this one. This is literally one system that the outcome could range from just flurries in the metro, to five inches or more.

That's what we call a forecast with "high bust potential."

Stay tuned....

PH

A season to appreciate our public servants in weather

Posted at 5:05 PM on December 20, 2007 by Mark Seeley (1 Comments)

For some reason the holiday season always makes me stop to think about blessings that are either overlooked or underappreciated. One group that falls in this category - the National Weather Service Employees who are tasked to monitor and forecast our weather 24/7/365. Having worked with them for 30 years I have gained a great appreciation for how seriously they take their work, and for the most part what a great job they do. As we cope with our anxieties about what challenges the holiday season will bring weatherwise, let's not forget that we have some highly competent people out there working on our behalf to insure that should anything appear which may obstruct our plans or even threaten our well being, they will let us know about it.

If you wish to send a holiday greeting to our friends at the weather service you can simply email either the Chanhassen Office (w-mpx.webmaster@noaa.gov) or the Duluth Office (w-dlh.webmaster@noaa.gov). It might be a nice gesture and much appreciated.

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Maintaining a passion for weather

Posted at 2:41 PM on December 27, 2007 by Craig Edwards

Not a lot of cheering goes on when a meteorologist hits a snowfall forecast right on the money. But oh my, miss a forecast in the metro area by a couple of inches and you can get an ear full. As Ricky used to say to Lucy, You’ve got some splaining to do!

Forecasters who stay in the profession a long time have a passion to take on the challenge when it comes to a difficult forecast. It’s like getting to the World Series game and wanting to be the starting pitcher. We take it tough, ala Billy Martin, when we come up short. But we get up again, blow the snow off our shoulders and give it another go.

Early in my 34 year career with the NWS it was hard to let a busted forecast go. Sage old timers warned I would not survive if I took the criticism personally. For more than three decades I had my share of less than perfect forecasts and I still feel inadequate when the forecast misses its mark.

I was hoping to get a book for Christmas on How to make a perfect forecast every time, but ended up with a recycled copy of Weather forecasting, it’s as easy as looking out the window!
CE

Cold New Year's Day is pretty normal

Posted at 9:17 AM on December 28, 2007 by Mark Seeley

The forecast for New Year's Day 2008 is calling for colder weather, with daytime highs ranging from the single digits to the teens F around the state, probably the coldest first day of the year since 2002 and certainly a far sight from the 30s and 40s F last year. Many citizens recall the very mild New Year's Day in 1998 with daytime highs in the 40s and low 50s F encouraging a few to go out and play a round of golf and brag about it.

But cold weather on New Year's Day is pretty typical with sigificantly below normal readings about 40 percent of the time historically. The forecast for January 1, 2008 though cold is far from setting any records. There have been numerous years when daytime highs on New Year's Day have not risen above zero. The last time for the Twin Cities was 1979 when the high was only -1 degree F. Probably the coldest New Year's Day in the modern record was in 1974 when virtually every location in the state remained below zero, with a high of -24 degrees F at Hawley (Red River Valley) and -12 degrees F in the Twin Cities. Many locations started out that day colder than -30 degrees F, with Wannaska reporting -44 F.

Though climate records are less abundant for the 19th Century, observations from St Paul show a reading of -40 degrees F on New Year's morning of 1860. I doubt that we would ever see that again, but you never know.

Invasion of arctic air

Posted at 9:07 AM on December 31, 2007 by Craig Edwards

After a weekend where it appeared as if Mother Nature recycled some left over weather, we will experience a shivering invasion of arctic air later today. Temperatures will be cold but not brutal to start the New Year. Brisk northwest winds will lower wind chill temperatures to as cold as minus 25 degrees. Layered look will be in vogue to ring in 2008.

The blast of cold air will be short lived with the coldest readings greeting us as we head back to the regular routine on Wednesday morning. Favored cold locations, such as Tower and Embarrass could find the mercury near minus 20 shortly after daybreak.

A quick rebound will begin on Thursday as winds shift to the southwest. But while the temperatures recover back into the 20s, increasing winds will still add a chill to the air.

The moderation will continue into the weekend. An early January thaw is in the offing, as temperatures climb into the 30s.
CE