USA: 4th warmest January on record

Posted at 5:22 PM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Climate

4th warmest January on record for the USA according to NOAA

7th warmest January in Minnesota according to Mark Seeley at UM (preliminary)

4th warmest start to meteorological winter (Dec & Jan) on record in the Twin Cities

Sub-zero again overnight in northern Minnesota

Near zero Friday & Saturday morning in the metro?

USA: 4th warmest January on record:

The data is in from NOAA for January, and this will go down as the 4th warmest year opener on record.

More details from NOAA:

"Climate Highlights -- January

•The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, 5.5 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average -- the fourth warmest January on record, and the warmest since 2006. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 1.85 inches. This was 0.37 inch below the long-term average, with variability between regions. This monthly analysis is based on records dating back to 1895.

•Warmer-than-average temperatures were widespread across the contiguous United States during January. Nine states -- Arizona, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming -- had January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Florida and Washington were the only states with temperatures near average, and no state was cooler than average.

•Many locations across the Northern Plains exceeded all-time warm January maximum temperature records during the month, including Minot, North Dakota, which reached 61 degrees F on January 5th. This surpassed the previous record of 59 degrees F for the city, set on January 28th, 1906.

•In contrast to the contiguous United States being much warmer than average, several towns across Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record -- Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F) McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).

•Cities across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast had below-average snow fall during the month a result of warmer and drier than average conditions. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average snow extent during January was 1.0 million square miles, which was 329,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average. This marks the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record.

•According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought, called D4 or exceptional drought, about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 31.9 percent at the beginning of January to 37.9 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.

•The United States Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) and Regional Climate Extremes Index (RCEI) are sensitive to extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, drought, and tropical cyclones on the national and regional scale, respectively. During January, the USCEI was above average, driven by a large extent in warm maximum temperatures. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent, which is the second highest value on record. Regionally, the West North Central, South, and West regions ranked 3rd or 4th highest for the extent of warm maximum temperature extremes."

Minnesota was "ground Zero" for January warmth. My MPR colleague and UM cimate guru Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates.

Topic: Preliminary climate summary for January 2012

"A very warm January prevailed across Minnesota. Many observers report mean monthly temperatures that are 7 to 9 degrees F warmer than average. Both Fargo-Moorhead and International Falls report their 5th warmest January in history, while on a statewide basis January 2012 appears to rank as the 7th warmest historically. Three new state record high temperatures were set for the month (on the 4th, 54 F at Marshall; on the 5th, 63 F at Marshall and Canby; and on the 10th, 59 F at Marshall). MSP International Airport reported only three mornings with below zero F temperatures, well below the average of eleven. The monthly temperature extremes were 63 degrees F at Marshall and Canby on the 5th, and -30 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the 20th. January was the 4th consecutive month with significantly above normal temperatures across the state, making the October (2011) through January (2012) period one of the warmest in state history. One final note on temperature: despite the dominance of warm temperatures, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on four dates during the month.

It was also generally a drier than normal month, though some observers reported significant snowfall, and the largest monthly total for the winter so far. Some of those with significant January snowfall included: 14.9 inches at Orr; 14.1 inches at Kabetogama; 12.7 inches at Lanesboro; 11.4 inches at Grand Meadow; and 10.3 inches at Gunflint Lake. The last weekend of the month may bring additional snows to these areas as well.

Over January 9-10 strong winds were reported around the state with the advance of an arctic high pressure system. Many reported wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph.

Soil frost depths increased during January, starting out at just a few inches below the soil surface and dropping to as deep as 20 to 30 inches in places where there is little snow cover."

February started mild in Minnesota. Temps at MSP Airport ran a full +13.4 degrees vs. average for the first 6 days!

Our cooler weather pattern looks to persist for the next two weeks of February. We should creep back closer to what passes for "average" in Minnesota these days.

Stay tuned, and stay warm!

PH

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Broken Winter: Have weather patterns shifted beyond recognition?

Posted at 9:04 AM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

-20 at Ash Lake (northern St Louis County off Hwy 53) this morning
(Coldest spot in the nation! Thanks to Mark Seeley for this report)

-17 in Crane Lake, Minnesota this morning! (Near the Boundary Waters)

Near 0 in the metro by Saturday morning?

-20s in Europe cold wave

+50 50 degrees warmer in Alaska than this time last week

Cold air on the move around the northern hemisphere

More like winter than "spring" in Minnesota next 2 weeks

Rare tropical disturbance in Florida in February?

"Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events." -Jeff Masters describing radical changes in weather patterns over the past 2 years.

Cold Air on the move:

Northern Minnesota finally woke up to real winter this morning.

Sub-zero temps blanketed the northland, and a north wind is making it feel increasingly winter-like in the south too.

Crane Lake dipped to -17 this morning. Ash Lake to -20. That's pretty respectable for February.

The cold will linger today and tomorrow, before a brief milder spell Thursday precedes the next (more arctic) front Friday.

Yes, it's finally going to feel like winter around here by the weekend...even if the lack of snow means it still looks like early spring in much of southern Minnesota.

Shifting weather patterns:

A man walks past an ice-covered car Sunday on the frozen waterside promenade at Lake Geneva in Versoix, Switzerland.

Until 2-3 weeks ago, the cold air had been mostly bottled up around the poles and in Alaska. That's changing.

A huge arctic high pressure dome has moved into Europe bringing the coldest weather in 15 years and record snows to some areas.

Cold is also moving into the lower 48 United States this week, and it looks like it may hang around for a couple of weeks.

The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12 appears to be "fixed" in Minnesota, at least for now. February may end up being the coldest month overall this winter in Minnesota.

Is this the new normal?

The incredible record and highly unusual weather patterns of the past 2 years are causing some meteorologists (including me) to ask if a bigger shift has occurred. The weather maps we're looking at just don't seem to fit seasonal pattern we studied in school and have observed over the past 25 years.

When you look at weather maps everyday for decades there are seasonal patterns that evolve. Those patterns just don't seem to fit anymore.

Over the past two years we've seen several events that are so out of place compared to "normal" that it makes us wonder if the overall climate has shifted so much that we don't recognize what we're looking at anymore.

Consder these events of just the past two years.

-Tornado alley shifted north in 2010, Minnesota lead the nation in tornadoes in 2010

-A record number of "Billion Dollar Weather Disasters" in 2011

-Long standing all time heat records broken in many countries worldwide

-The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12

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-A rare tropical weather disturbance in Florida in February

These events are causing many of us, like Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, to ask if we're witnessing climate shifts unlike anything we've seen before.

"I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?"

It's a great question.

I can tell you this for sure. The weather maps I'm looking at in the past two years bear little resemblance to what I've seen over the past 25 years of watching daily weather patterns.

Forecasting the weather for Minnesota these days is like forecasting for some strange land I am not familiar with. It's like a roller coater ride I can't get off, and I'm not sure where it's headed. The thing is, we're all on this ride together...and I don't know where we're going to end up.

PH

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Cold front arrives! Minnesota from space - crystal clear images

Posted at 5:57 PM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

46 degree high at MSP Airport Monday!

51 record high Monday at MSP (set in 1925)

26 "average" high Monday at MSP

+20 degrees vs. average Monday

Warmest day since January 10th
(When it reached a record 52 degrees!)

Cold front sweeps in
(20s in northern Minnesota Monday moving south)

2nd cold front due in late Thursday & Friday

Frozen lakes & lack of snow cover clearly visible on MODIS Terra images Monday

"Man Cave:" Ice fisherman pulls his truck up to his ice house on Lake Minnetonka Monday.
(Photo credit: Paul Huttner-MPR News)

Spring fever Monday!

Welcome to March 25th.

That's the date the average high reaches 46 degrees in the metro. We fast forwarded to spring once again Monday in southern Minnesota, even as a cold front stalled temps in the 20s up north.

Our 46 degree high at MSP was just 5 degrees short of another record. It was also the warmest day so far in February, in fact the warmest since our record breaking 52 on January 10th.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CST MON FEB 6 2012

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
DLH : DULUTH MN : 37 / 22 / 0.00/ 0/ 1
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 29 / 16 / T / T/ 6
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 46 / 25 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 0
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 41 / 27 / 0.00/ 0/ 0
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 43 / 17 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 1

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 37 / 19 /
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 38 / 24 /
HIB : HIBBING MN : 31 / 6 /
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 48 / 24 /

So far in February MSI is running a full 13 degrees above average!

Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka awaits warmer days.
(Notice how far below the dock the ice (water level) is!

February "reality check" on the way:

It's early, but 46 degrees could end up as the warmest temp this month.

The maps are looking decidedly colder the next 2-3 weeks. We're feeling the effects of cold front #1 now, and cold front #2 is on the way by Thursday night.

The next two weeks look seasonably cool and we should see temps fall closer to average. Look for mostly 20s and 30s the next two weeks. This may end up as the coldest month of winter! (But still near or above average overall)

On a clear day you can see...Lake Mille Lacs!

Check out the amazingly clear images today from NASA's MODIS Terra satellite.

The first high resolution image is a 1,000 meter res shot of Minnesota. Note the brown "snow free" areas in the southwest half of Minnesota. You can see the whiter semi snow covered areas up north.
(click to enlarge images)

Details become even more vivid on this 250 meter resolution shot of central Minnesota. Note the frozen and snow covered lakes, and the snow cover as you move north.

Unfrozen Lake Superior is clearly visible on the right hand side.

After 6 straight cloudy fog filled days it is nice to know Minnesota is still visible from orbit!

PH

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Finally sunshine! Cold fronts; Will Feb be the coldest month of "winter?"

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Bright sunshine at the weather lab today!

40 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota today

Today - warmest day this week!

Cold front cuts through Minnesota from north to south today

Colder days ahead this week

2nd stronger "Arctic front" due late Thursday & Friday

Teens for highs by Friday?

Sub zero in northern Minnesota Friday & Saturday morning?

5:30pm sunset at MSP Wednesday
(Now light until nearly 6pm in the western sky on clear nights!)

1 hour 20 minutes of additional daylight since December solstice

3 minutes per day of additional daylight this week

12 days - pitchers & catchers report to Twins spring training in Fort Meyers!

A rare bright sunny morning at the weather lab Monday!

The sun:

After nearly a week shrouded in fog and low stratus, the sun is finally shining brightly at the weather lab this morning.

The welcome sunshine today will greet most of Minnesota, as the stubborn (and beautiful) fog bank slides east into Wisconsin.

With a milder air mass ahead of a cold front and increasingly strong February sunshine, temps will make a run at 40 today in southern Minnesota, including the metro.

Cold fronts ahead!

A cold front is cutting through Minnesota from north to south today.

A few flurries may accompany the front as it dives south. The front moved through northern Minnesota this morning, and will arrive in the metro and southern Minnesota late afternoon and evening.

Temps behind the front are about 10 degrees cooler, with 20s for highs Tuesday & Wednesday.

Arctic Front later this week!

A colder arctic air mass will sag south by Friday. It looks like a glancing blow of cold air fr about 48 hours for Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

Highs may struggle to get out of the teens both Friday and Staurday, with some sub-zero lows in northern Minnesota. The usual cold suspects like Embarrass and Ely may boast some double digit sub zero lows Friday and Saturday morning.

February 2012: The coldest month of this winter?

After the 4th warmest December & January period on record in the Twin Cities, it looks like we'll finally get one month closer to "average" in February.

Looking at the medium range maps (through February 22nd) the overall pattern looks decidedly colder. Temps may run near or slightly below average the next two weeks.

This should mean that February will end up as the "coldest" month of this meteorological winter. (Dec-Feb)

That may be good news for those who want an early spring. We usually need to "drain" the cold air from the northern latitudes in February and early March to allow things to warm up on schedule in Minnesota. If the cold air lingers up north, it can take a while for it to ooze south in March & April.

It's too early to say for sure what spring may be like this year in Minnesota. The one thing we really need is above average rainfall during April and May to try and stave off the growing drought.

If we stay dry in spring, then severe drought is going to quickly become the major weather story of spring 2012.

Snow chances increase next week?

If the maps verify, our northwest wind flow in the upper atmosphere next week will bring a family of Clippers sailing south toward Minnesota. This could mean 2-3 rounds of light snow next week.

The snows may not be heavy, but we could theoretically stack up a few inches of fresh snowfall (and gum up a few rush hours) in the next two weeks.

Stay tuned.

Brighter days ahead!

One thing we all have to look forward to is the now rapidly increasing daylight in Minnesota. You can already sense the noticeably longer days.

We've gained a full 1 hour & 20 minutes of daylight since the December solstice. We're now gaining a full 3 minutes per day, and 21 minutes per week.

The higher February sun angle means it's tougher to keep any snow cover around too, even on colder days.

Enjoy the sun!

PH

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Beautiful weekend frost; Cold fronts ahead this week

Posted at 12:03 AM on February 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Frost, Winter 2011-12

Just a little something to get you started early Monday.

Our stubborn weekend fog left a prize. This was one of the most beautiful weekends of "hoar frost" and "advection frost" in recent memory.

Morning hoarfrost in Highland Park.
(Photo by Greg Johnson)

More soon!

PH

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Beautiful weekend frost; Cold fronts ahead this week

Posted at 12:03 AM on February 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Frost, Winter 2011-12

Just a little something to get you started early Monday.

Our stubborn weekend fog left a prize. This was one of the most beautiful weekends of "hoar frost" and "advection frost" in recent memory.

Morning hoarfrost in Highland Park.
(Photo by Greg Johnson)

More soon!

PH

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Stubborn fog hangs tough; Denver blizzard; Chicago 1 year later

Posted at 5:35 PM on February 3, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

54 straight hours of fog reported at MSP Airport

Clouds hang tough this weekend

3 feet of snow west of Denver!

Blizzard conditions in and around Denver metro Friday

21.2" one year ago in Chicago's "Groundhog Day Blizzard"

0" snow depth at Chicago's O'Hare Airport today

"Fog-uary"

That bright yellow thing you see in the sky this weekend is called "the sun."

After 54 straight hours of fog in the metro, it may take a while for you to remember.

A persistent temperature inversion about 2,000 feet above the ground trapped moisture from snow melt and brewed up our stubborn fog layer this week. Light winds were not enough to disperse the fog bank, and gray was the weather color of choice this week.

The inversion also trapped polutants near the ground, and spiked particulate readings inthe metro the past few days into the "moderate" range. AQI readings surged this week.

Fog is common during the "fog & low stratus season" in Minnesota, but this winter has been exceptionally sunny so far. The lack of snow cover means there is no additional moisture to melt into the atmosphere on mild days, and fog has been relatively rare overall.

Sunshine Alert!

Light northerly winds should finally be enough to break up the fog this weekend. Saturday may still dawn a little gray, but the sun should emerge as the day wears on. Sunday looks like the sunnier day this weekend.

Temps respond:

As the sun comes out, temps should respond accordingly. Highs should once again crack 40 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota. A few eager bank thermometers may flash as high as 45 this weekend in the metro!

With just a trace of snowfall now at MSP Airport, what little snow cover remains in southern Minnesota should be history by late Sunday.

Major Denver Blizzard: Up to 3 feet in the mountains!

Speaking of snow, they got whacked in Denver Friday.

Unlike the "Snowmageddons" and "Snowpocalypses" of last winter, Blizzards have been rare this winter. Tell that to the folks in Colorado who are digging out from as much as 3 FEET of snow this weekend.

The storm has dumped about a foot in metro Denver, and as much as 3 feet in the mountains just west of Boulder!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
219 PM MST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W CONIFER 39.51N 105.36W
02/03/2012 M31.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.11N 105.44W
02/03/2012 M35.1 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM SNOW STERLING 40.65N 103.20W
02/03/2012 M5.0 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0143 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SW AURORA 39.66N 104.77W
02/03/2012 E12.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0115 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 E IDAHO SPRINGS 39.74N 105.49W
02/03/2012 M10.5 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 W WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.14W
02/03/2012 M12.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N CASTLE ROCK 39.44N 104.85W
02/03/2012 M12.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW DENVER 39.77N 104.87W
02/03/2012 M11.0 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

The winter storm is hammering Nebraska and parts of Iowa this weekend, but fading as it moves east. It will pass south of Minnesota and weaken considerably as it slides south Chicago.

Last winter this same storm track would have dumped heavy snow from Denver through Des Moines, the Quad Cities into Chicago, & Indy for Super Bowl Sunday. Not this year. The lack of cold arctic air means the storm can't spin up and maintain strength.

Several thousand fans getting to & from Super Bowl XLVI in Indy are happy about that!

Chicago: 1 year after

A year ago on Feb. 2, 2011, hundreds of cars were stranded on Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, Ill., seen at left. The same stretch is seen on Wednesday.
(Image credit: Kiichiro Sato/AP via MSNBC)

1 year ago, Chicago was digging out from the infamous "Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011." The Chicago NWS has a great write up of the blizzard here.

This year it looks like spring in the Windy City.

I have covered many storms along Chicago's Lakefront during my WGN-TV days, but I've never seen anything like the snowpacolypse that slammed Chicago last winter.

The storm was the 3rd biggest snowfall on record at O'Hare Airport.

Hundreds of motorists had no chance as nearly 2 feet of snow and 70 mph winds blasted city streets and "The Drive" with impassable, vehicle eating drifts.

This winter big storms have been hard to find. That's something may Chicagoans may be thankful for this weekend.

The "Unwinter" of 2011-'12:

MSNBC has the story.

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Have a great weekend!

PH

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Apocalyptic Winter Forecasts Bust: 4th warmest winter so far

Posted at 6:32 PM on February 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

4th warmest winter on record so far at MSP Airport

8th warmest January at MSP Airport

+7.7 degrees in January at MSP Airport

36+ straight hours (and counting) of fog reported at MSP Airport

Sunshine likely returns this weekend!

40 possible again this weekend in much of southern Minnesota

4th warmest winter so far & 8th warmest January in the metro!

Winter Forecasts: A major bust in 2011-'12

Remember this?

AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One

(Images from Accuweather.com)

And this?

And this?

"AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."

However, for the worst of winter's cold alone, the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team points to Minneapolis."

And finally this?

Worst of This Winter's Cold Aimed at Minneapolis

"As a Minneapolis native, I know winters are brutal for the Twin Cities with days on end of subzero temperatures and horrendous wind chills. Unfortunately for my fellow Minnesotans, the cold this year could be especially awful.

While Chicago has been marked as the city where the worst of this winter's snow and cold combined will be, the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is pointing to Minneapolis for the worst of the cold alone.

The La Niña expected to continue through this winter will be largely to blame. La Niñas, which occur when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, are usually synonymous with bitterly cold winters in Minnesota and neighboring states.

The Long-Range Forecasting Team expects this winter to be very similar to the La Niña winter of 2008-2009, which featured an early, week-long appearance of subzero temperatures in December and more lengthy frigid, below-zero spells through January and February.

In total, there were 30 days with subzero temperatures, either nighttime lows or daytime highs, that winter from December through February.

This winter, the cold is predicted to come on strong in December. Temperatures are expected to average below normal all winter in Minneapolis but will be the farthest below normal in December.

Gradually, the core of brutally cold air is forecast to shift from the Upper Midwest to the northern Rockies late January into February. So while it will still be colder than normal through February in the Twin Cities, temperatures may not be as far below normal as they will be in December.

As far as snow goes, last winter was one of Minneapolis' snowiest on record with a whopping 87 inches falling at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. One of the most notable snowstorms was the blockbuster that took down the roof of the Metrodome in December.

While the Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting slightly above-normal snowfall this season, their projected amount of 56 inches is considerably less than last year's 87 inches."

Here's what really happened so far 2/3 of the way through meteorological winter in the Twin Cities: (Data from Minnesota Climate Working Group)

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

"The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on.

January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal.

The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees."

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

As for snowfall, here's where we stand as of Feb 2nd:

14.9" so far season to date at MSP Airport
-19.2" vs. average
60.4" last year by this date

To be fair, Accuweather was not the only one calling for a colder than average winter this year in Minnesota. NOAA and the StarTribune also called for a colder than average winter in Minnesota.

Even though NOAA's outlook for Minnesota was too cold, they absolutely nailed the possibility of the AO throwing a wild card into winter predictions.

And though the StarTribune called for a very cold winter (-3 degrees vs. average) in Minnesota, it wasn't issued with notions of gospel like certainty.

Though my MPR winter outlook did not buy into the notion of a bitterly cold winter this year...to be fair my "near average" winter prediction and was still too cold. But I did accurately point out the possibility that this could be a milder than average winter continuing the trends we have seen in the past decade.

From October 26th Updraft post:

Decadal Trends: Our changing winter climate?

"Juxtaposed over the technical and dynamic factors that may control winter weather are so called decadal trends, which lean strongly in favor of milder winters with less snowfall for Minnesota.

Some facts from the past decade include:

-7 of the past 10 winters have featured significantly below average snowfall in the metro, (70% bias toward less than average snow in the past 10 years)

-In those years the average winter snowfall has been 33.6"
(Roughly 22" below the 30 year average of 55.9"!)

-6 of the past 10 winters have featured above average temperatures
(60% bias toward milder than average winters the past 10 years)

-Minnesota winter nights got a lot milder in the past 30 years! (1981-2010 data set) Overnight low (minimum) temperatures in January average a full 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than the previous 30 year (1971-2000) data set.

The bottom line is, winters are trending milder in Minnesota, and while averages are made up of extremes on both ends, you can't ignore the background trend when looking at the potential for two colder and snowier than average winters in a row.

Variable: Decadal trends in winter temps and snowfall in Minnesota

Potential effect on Minnesota winter: Milder winters temps (especially at night) and a apparent bias toward lower winter snowfall totals.

Trend for 2011-'12: Increased odds for a milder winter with less snow than 2010-'11"

So what's my point?

The lesson here in my view is that nobody is that good with seasonal forecasts that we should be blaring headlines like Accuweather did for this winter.

"AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One"

and

"Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes"

The smug "air of certainty" with which Accuweather throws headlines and apocalyptic graphics out there is just plain irresponsible. The state of the science of long range forecasting does not support such certainty when issuing forecasts, and they know it.

And these are the guys who want to privatize most weather forecasting services and products which are freely available from NOAA.

Fog hangs tough into Friday:

Look for another foggy start Friday. Visibilities may again drop below 1/4 mile in thick for into Friday morning. Dense Fog Advisories have been posted until 10 am Friday morning.

Sunnier weekend?

Drier breezes this weekend should break up the fog, and return sunshine to most of Minnesota. Look for highs to again approach 40 degrees this weekend.

It's had to call it "ice fishing" this year. Slush fishing anyone?

PH

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Foggy Groundhog in metro; sun returns to most of MN today!

Posted at 8:55 AM on February 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Shadow according to Punxutawney Phil in Gobbler's Knob, PA

6 more weeks of "winter?"

39% accuracy for Phil over the last 100+ years

No shadow in the metro this morning

Big snow developing in Nebraska & Iowa next 48 hours

Mild February? NOAA's CPC thinks so

Onward through the fog!

Welcome to London, with partially frozen lakes.

The thick fog bank hung tough for a second morning in the metro and eastern Minnesota, while southwest Minnesota basks in clear skies and sunshine.

The fog may finally lift in most areas today, and temps should respond accordingly.

Fog from snow melt is one forecast "fly in the ointment" we haven't had to deal with much in Minnesota this winter.

It goes like this:

1) Warmth melts snow

2) Snow melt adds moisture to air

3) Moisture creates fog

4) Fog blocks sun

5) Temps stay cooler

The best "defense" against winter fog is wind. Winds will pick up in Minnesota this weekend, and some of the fog should burn off as today wears on.

It's Groundhog Day!

It has to be one of the best movies ever made. Not high art maybe, but really entertaining.

The opening scenes from Groundhog Day where Bill Murray is skeptical (okay cynical) about the whole idea of Groundhog Day could have been filmed in one of many TV weather offices in the USA.

This openeing scene was actually shot at WGN-TV in Chicago. I worked on this same weather set for two years.

"You're kidding me! Do I really have to do this stupid live shot again? For a little rodent?"

Of course the reality is we embrace the idea, corny as it is. Even though the Groundhog Punxutawney Phil has an accuracy rate of just 39%, we still love him. Right?

And who among us hasn't felt like doing this when the alarm goes off in the morning?

I can tell you this for sure; "Weather Lab Willie" didn't see his shadow this morning. All signs (and the maps) say that spring is right around the corner at the weather lab.

Keeping an eye on snow to the south:

Two places that will see a wintery relapse soon are Nebraska and Iowa.

A winter storm is winding up to the south and it should dump heavy snow.

If you are heading south along I-35 into Iowa, expect heavy snow and wintery weather!

PH

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"Fog Front"; Dense Fog Advisory; Foggy, icy AM commute

Posted at 9:06 PM on February 1, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

"Fog front" shrouds eastern MN in low clouds & fog

Near Zero visibiity at times into Thursday morning!

Dense fog advisory posted for most of eastern Minnesota until 10 am Thursday

Bright sun in western Minnesota Wednesday!

50s again in Ortonville, Pipestone & Marshall Wednesday

3rd least snow on record in USA in January

19% of the lower 48 USA states covered in snow

52% snow covered last year on this date!

6"-12"+ snowfall possible in parts of Nebraska and Iowa by Saturday

Foggy Front:

Dense fog advisory thorugh 10 am Thursday

The fog hung tough in eastern Minnesota including the metro Wednesday. Visibilities are below 1/4 mile again overnight into Thursday morning before a clearing trend kicks in.

The definite western edge of the fog bank from near Albert Lea to Willmar created a "pseudo warm front" in western Minnesota Monday. To the east of that front, moisture from snow melt saturated the air and thick fog and low 30s in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

To the west, drier air and bright sunshine boosted temps on snow free ground into the 50s at Ortonville and Marshall!

USA January snow drought:

Burnsville resident Dale Vaillancourt skis the 2.5 kilometer man-made snow loop at Wirth Winter Recreation Area Monday, Jan. 9, 2012 in Minneapolis. The park is unseasonably snow-free, except for the ski trail groomed with man-made snow.
(MPR File Photo/Jennifer Simonson)

It's not just "Snowless in St. Paul" this winter.

Last winter snow coevred over half the USA on this date. This year? A paltry 19%.

Seth Borenstein from Associated Press has the story.

"Washington (AP) -- Snow has gone missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it's not just snow. It's practically the season that's gone AWOL.

"What winter?" asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967.

Last year more than half the nation was covered in snow as a Groundhog Day blizzard barreled across the country, killing 36 people and causing $1.8 billion in damage. This year, less than a fifth of the country outside of Alaska has snow on the ground. Bismarck, N.D., has had one-fifth its normal snow, Boston a third. Midland Texas has had more snow this season than Minneapolis or Chicago.

Forget snow, for much of the country there's not even a nip in the air. On Tuesday, the last day in January, all but a handful of states had temperatures in the 50s or higher. In Washington, DC, where temperatures flirted with the 70s, some cherry trees are already budding -weeks early.

"I am disgusted that golfers are golfing on my cross-country ski course," said New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson, director of the Global Snow Lab."

Snow storm developing south; another miss for Minnesota?

Fire up the snow blowers in Nebraska and Iowa....but it looks like most of Minnesota may once again escape a wintery smack as we approach this weekend.

A major winter storm may dump 6" to 12" snows in Nebraska and Iowa Friday & Saturday. It looks like the system will track south of Des Moines and Chicago. That track is just too far south to get snow in the metro and most of Minnesota. The southern tier of counties along I-90 may get clipped Saturday...stay tuned.

PH

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