Fireworks likely caused weekend pollution spike

Posted at 8:32 AM on July 6, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Twin Cities Air Quality Index shows a dramatic spike in particulate matter over the 4th of July weekend.

Did you notice the smell of fireworks overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning? Many metro residents did. The smoke was so thick at the Weather Lab late Saturday night we had to close the windows.

Air pollution monitors in the Twin Cities detected a dramatic increase in fine particulate matter Sunday as light winds and stagnant air allowed pollutants to accumulate. The only reasonable explanation for the increase is smoke from fireworks displays on the 4th of July.

The boost in the MPCA's Air Quality Index (AQI) numbers Sunday was significant. From June 27th through July 2nd The Twin Cities enjoyed good air quality with AQI readings in the 30s and 40s.Then on July 3rd AQI readings rose to 51. They rose again to 81 on the 4th, followed by a spike to 124 on the 5th before improving to readings back into the 50s today.

Since vehicle emissions generally drop on the weekend, the only logical explanation for the pollution spike is municipal and home fireworks displays. Weather conditions featured light winds and stagnant air. Observations from Twin Cites Airport showed that many hours featured light winds less than 5 mph or calm air over the past 72 hours.

The good news is our air quality should continue to improve this week. The first in a series of bands of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the metro this morning. We can expect some "rain washed" air as the week goes on. The moisture will also be a welcome sight for many farmers and for the garden here at the Weather Lab.

PH

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Baseball weather

Posted at 4:53 PM on July 3, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Target Field rendering shows outdoor baseball under a Minnesota sky. (Image courtesy Minnesota Twins)

Baseball fans in Minnesota are about to undergo a change in thinking. The days of baseball under a Teflon sky will come to an end this fall. Starting next year, Twins fans will be enjoying the full menu of all the weather Minnesota has to offer.

That will be a new thing for baseball fans younger than 37 years. There will be sunny brilliant days, rainy days and maybe even a snowflake or two. From my look at Target Field, the Twins have done a pretty good job of designing a ball park that will take in the best weather Minnesota has to offer and shield fans from the worst. Yes there will still be rain delays, and fans will have to get used to that again. There will be plenty of places to run and hide or grab a beverage on those days. From an overall weather enjoyment standpoint, Target Field looks like a home run to me. The designers have oriented the stadium and the design to create a pretty good microclimate to shield the chilly northwest winds of spring and fall, and shade the hot sun of July.

There are a lot of weather dependant decisions that go into your average outdoor sporting event. There are people behind the scenes that have to make critical decisions at a moments notice.

That's why many MLB teams use a variety of sources for weather support. These range from NWS data to in house weather radar systems and private weather consultants. As with everything in weather no one of these sources may be right 100% of the time. But the batting average is much higher than the best hitters in baseball, and that can save hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars over the course of a season or two.

For my money there will be nothing better than to sit at an outdoor ballgame on a beautiful Minnesota day. The real test for fans will be to see how well we adapt to those weather days that aren't so "Minnesota Nice." I'm guessing most Minnesotans will take it in stride, just like we do every other outdoor event during a Minnesota summer.

PH

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A baseball memory from a cold July 4th

Posted at 9:22 AM on July 3, 2009 by Mark Seeley (0 Comments)

The July 4th holiday fell on a Tuesday back in 1967. What a cold Tuesday it was, one of the coldest in the modern era. Pipestone started the day with a reading of 36 degrees F, while campers at Itasca State Park built fires to stay warm with 35 degrees F. Further north in Baudette and Orr it was just 34 degrees F.

In the Twin Cities the Old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington hosted a double header between the Twins and the Yankees with nearly 25,000 fans in attendance. The Twins were contending that year for the American League Pennant (they ended up finishing 1 game behind the Boston Red Sox), and Rod Carew was having a great year, later rewarded by being named AL Rookie of the Year.

But this July 4th baseball doubleheader was the coldest ever played at the Old Met. During this doubleheader the temperature fluctuated between 55 and 58 degrees F under overcast skies with easterly winds of 8-10 mph. Many of the fans were wearing sweatshirts and jackets, and the pitchers wore their warm up jackets between innings. Despite two homeruns by Mickey Mantle, the Twins won the first game (8-3) behind Tony Olivia (HR,2 RBI) and Cesar Tovar (3 hits, 3 RBI), and 9 strong innings from Mudcat Grant. In the second game, after 3 hours and 15 minutes Tony Olvia hit a single to right field to score Cedar Tovar in the bottom of the 9th inning as the Twins won (7-6) for reliever Al Worthington.

In all the Twins fans endured nearly 6 hours of baseball that day in some of the coldest July weather in history. Most who attended remember the game for two reasons: a rare sweep of the Yankees; and the cold, cold weather. Perhaps such memories will be in the making for the new Twins Stadium starting next year.

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Minnesota 2009: High water and drought

Posted at 3:30 PM on July 2, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

High water laps at boat docks on Rainy Lake in June. Photo by Lee Grim; Voyageurs National Park.

New report, same old drought. Add Duluth and Benson to the areas in Minnesota with deepening dryness this week. Much of central and eastern Minnesota remains unusually dry as we open July.

That's why some folks are surprised when they make the trip to Rainy Lake in the far north. While lake levels are low in the metro, waves are washing over docks on windy days on Rainy. Lake levels have come down a bit since early June, but they are still high. It's not a huge surprise, since International Falls received over 100 inches of snow last winter. All that runoff had to go somewhere this spring.

Today's drought report holds firm with moderate to severe drought in the metro. There is also an increasing area of moderate drought in west central Minnesota near Benson and Appleton.

It's amazing to live in a state where weather patterns can vary widely over short distances. I guess in the weather business we call that "job security."

PH

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Lake Superior water temps plunge

Posted at 8:43 AM on July 2, 2009 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

Clouds hover over a chilly Lake Superior on the Duluth waterfront this morning.

Fishermen have been reliably watching weather patterns for centuries. That's why I looked into reports from anglers that the water temperature in Lake Superior took a nose dive early this week. The reports were right.

There were reports that late last week surface water temperatures on the western end of Lake Superior near Duluth had warmed into the low 50s. That's pretty balmy for frigid Gitchi Gumi. By Monday water temperatures had plunged to 38 degrees off of Duluth Harbor. That's a 15 plus degree drop in less than 72 hours. What could have caused that?

It turns out it's a pretty common phenomenon when we get a strong persistent northwest wind like last weekend. For three days winds howled between 20 and 45 mph on the big lake. The friction with the water blew the relatively warm water south and east toward Wisconsin. As the surface water moves east, cold water from the depths of Superior rises on the North Shore to take its place. This process is called upwelling.

Since water is heaviest at precisely 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit, that cold water stays at the bottom of the lake until it is moved to the surface by some force. In this case it was wind. The process of replacing cold water from the depths with surface water is called lake turnover. It is common in inland lakes in the spring and fall. It also brings fresh oxygen rich waters from the surface to the depths where they can recharge plant and marine life.

The abrupt temperature changes in Lake Superior water temperatures this week is no doubt a shock to anyone who dares dip in a toe or brave a swim. But there are benefits to colder water.

Water temperatures have recovered a bit along the north shore into the 40s in most areas. As usual in Superior that's still way too cold for a safe swim, but it's progress.

PH

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One state, two forecasts

Posted at 2:27 PM on July 1, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Visible satellite image shows cloud deck hugging eastern Minnesota, while the west basks in sunshine today.

It's not that far from the Twin Cities to Willmar. It might as well be halfway across the country for the difference in weather today.

For the second day in a row bank thermometers are flashing close to 80 degrees in Willmar while we sit under cool cloud deck with a chilly breeze in the 60s in the metro.

That's what a cold upper low can do in summer. This one has been spinning over the great lakes for a few days now, and we are living on the western edge of the cold pool here in Minnesota. The low stratocumulus deck hugging Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota means less incoming solar radiation. That's called sunshine for most of us.

It's interesting to se the difference in temperatures today. The air mass properties are generally the same, the entire temperatures spread from west to east across the state is due to the difference in sunshine. Check out these temps just a few tens of miles apart at 2pm this afternoon.

Twin Cities: Cloudy 67
Willmar: Sunny 79

Canby has already hit 80 degrees this afternoon.

Here's the good news. Those 80s are headed this way. We should be near 80 tomorrow in the metro, and into the 80s Friday. A weak weather system looks to bring a slight chance of showers Saturday for the 4th. Stay tuned on that one.

Enjoy more sunshine tomorrow and Friday!

PH

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September weather in July

Posted at 8:22 AM on July 1, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

You'll forgive Minnesotans if we are a little confused these days.

It's July 1st today. It's supposed to be hot. We're supposed to be able to amble aimlessly down to our favorite lake and cool off in the oppressive heat under a warm July sun. Instead it feels like the first week of fall.

Our high temperature Tuesday in the Twin Cities was 70 degrees. That's the average high for September 18th. It's not even reasonably close to the average high of 82 for June 30th.

I'm getting some pretty pointed questions these days from restless natives.

Q: When are we going to see the sun again?
A: The clouds will hang in the eastern half of Minnesota much of today. We may see some clearing later this afternoon in time for sunset tonight.

Q: When is it going to warm up again?
A: Starting on Thursday we will see a noticeable temperature spike. We should be close to 80 degrees again on Thursday and Friday. A weak disturbance passing overhead on the 4th of July will bring a slight chance of showers with temperatures in the 70s. Look for the potential for a more significant warm up next week.

Q: What the bleep was up with June?
A: This was one of the most variable Junes on record. We began the month with 13 consecutive below average days. High temperatures did not climb out of the 50s for three consecutive days June 6the through June 8th. By June 13th we were already over 7 degrees below average for the month.

Then the pattern changed for the warmer. The next 14 days featured average or above average temperatures. That stretch included 3 days at or above 90 degrees last week. Add it all up and we ended up with near average temperatures (-0.7 degrees) for the month.
June felt anything but average, but in the end that's where the temperature ended up. It goes to show that averages can be deceiving, and are made up of extremes.

Hang in there for one last grey day today, and then our weather will improve as we head toward the weekend.

PH

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Quiet in the Tropics

Posted at 4:01 PM on June 30, 2009 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)

Closing out the month of June, the first meteorological month of summer and the start of the hurricane season, things are pretty quiet around most of the country. However, the Sunshine State continues to be bathed in showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain once again soaks the northeast US.

Once again the Twin Cities will come up short in the precipitation department this month. The latest drought update will be released on Wednesday. During the growing season we would like to receive about an inch of moisture a week. We are woefully short of that expectation.

Here is the latest from the Tropical Storm Prediction Center.

More seasonal temperatures are seen for the 4th of July weekend. Bouts of widespread thunderstorms look unlikely at this time.

CE

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Two satellites are better than one

Posted at 7:16 AM on June 30, 2009 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)

While it might feel more like a fall day, this image is just an example of the water vapor image for a NOAA eye in the sky called GOES. This geostationary satellite is invaluable to monitoring developing weather, especially critical for tropical storm formation.

On Saturday NOAA and NASA successfully launched GOES O. This satellite will be prepared to take over if one of the other GOES fails. Since these satellite travels in sequence with the earths rotation we can animate the imagery.

One GOES monitors the Pacific region and one the Atlantic. There was a time when I worked for NOAA that we did not have a spare ready in place and were required to reposition the east monitoring GOES towards the central part of the northern hemisphere to get a view of the Pacific during hurricance season.

NASA press release on the latest GOES launch

Always nice to have a spare.

I want my summer back.

CE

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Back to school-not yet

Posted at 4:36 PM on June 29, 2009 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)

I was joking with a colleague last week that it will not be long before we see advertisements for back to school specials. Some colleges begin classes in August. Apparently Mother Nature had the same thought as she tossed autumnlike weather our way.

After a week of very warm temperatures a shift in the jet stream has funneled cool air into the Great Lakes region. The satellite image from midday captured the cloud features that we often see in late September when the first intrusion of autumn air tumbles out of Canada.

We started the meteorological summer on June first and had a very chilly couple of days with highs only in the 50s. Last week we recorded three days of 90 degrees or better in the Twin Cities. With highs only in the 70s today and Tuesday we will end up about a degree or two below the thirty year average for the month of June.

CE

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