Saturday storms clearing; Sunday heat on tap
Posted at 12:17 PM on May 26, 2012
by Hart Van Denburg
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather
MPR meteorolgist Bill Endersen writes:
Thunderstorms with heavy rain have been zipping across the metro area and much of the southern half of Minnesota this morning. The strongest storms have been tracking south of the metro from Redwood Falls to Mankato to Red Wing. Some of these storms likely contain small hail but significant severe weather is not likely.
Morning rainfall amounts are likely to exceed one inch across the southern metro with lesser amounts to the north. My rain gauge has picked up almost six-tenths of an inch as the rain tapers off.
For the metro area, it looks as though the storms should clear out in time for a mostly pleasant Saturday afternoon. And the Twins-Tigers game is likely to be a go at Target Field.
Some severe storms are possible across southern to central Minnesota later today although the morning weather might put enough of a cap on the atmosphere to impede strong development. If severe storms develop later today the main risk will be of damaging hail.
Soil saturation from the continuing rains might lead to some localized flooding.
Sunday continues to look like a hot, fairly steamy day with growing thunderstorms advancing eastward across Minnesota during the day. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds are possible Sunday, especially in the evening in eastern Minnesota and then into western Wisconsin.
Wettest May? Weekend severe risk; 97 Sunday? Grays Bay Dam open
Posted at 5:07 PM on May 25, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Record, Severe weather
8.18" rainfall at MSP Airport so far this May
2nd wettest May on record so far at MSP Airport
Wettest May on record for some metro & Minnesota locations
(More from Mark Seeley below)
Mixed weather bag Memorial Day Weekend - some rain, sun and heat
Hot sticky Sunday 90 degrees & humid (60s dew points)
Severe late Sunday? Severe storm risk late PM & evening into early Monday
Mixed Memorial Day: Rain early, some PM sun?
This "Bud's" for you? (no not the beer) - Dissipating Hurricane "Bud" may inject some moisture into by Minnesota Monday
>
"May-soon"
Welcome to the May Monsoon.
Another month, another record in Minnesota. When did "extreme" weather become "normal" weather in Minnesota?
According to my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, this is already the wettest May on record at several Minnesota locations, and we still have a week to go.
It's the 2nd wettest May at MSP Airport with 8.18" so far. Another 2.16" is doable this month, even this weekend. That would make it the wettest May on record at MSP Airport.
Several additional locations arte in the top 5.
Here's an excerpt from Mark's earlier Updraft post.
With the frequency of heavy thunderstorms dominating the Minnesota landscape this month, some observers are reporting one of the wettest Mays in history. Currently on a statewide basis this May ranks among the top ten wettest in history. For some individual climate stations it is already among the top five, including:Chanhassen 9.22 inches (wettest ever)
Chaska 8.53 inches (4th wettest)
Jordan 9.17 inches (3rd wettest)
MSP Airport 8.18 inches (2nd wettest)
Forest Lake 9.62 inches (wettest ever)
Windom 8.40 inches (2nd wettest)
Pipestone 8.29 inches (4th wettest)
New Ulm 8.16 inches (4th wettest)
Mora 8.56 inches (wettest ever)
Floodwood 7.32 inches (wettest ever)
Tonka up 5": Grays Bay Dam open for 1st time since Labor Day weekend
I've recorded nearly 4" of rain at the Huttner Weather Lab this week on the east end of Lake Minnetonka. It's no surprise that the lake is responding, and the water level is up 5" (.42 feet) since Wednesday according to the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District web site.
The Grays Bay Dam feeds Minnehaha Creek, and the dam has now been opened by MCWD (12CFS) for the first time since it was closed early last September.
Source: Minnehaha Creek Watershed District
Further downstream, Minnehaha Falls is back to life and roaring away these days. 3"+ rainfall pushed level of Minnehaha Creek about 3 feet higher this week, and the Falls look and sound great.
Source: USGS
This is a great weekend to visit Minnehaha Falls. Sea Salt anyone?
Mixed Weather bag: Pick your "sunny" spots this weekend
This will actually be a pretty typical Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota. Some thunder & rain, some sun, and even some heat.
Our active pattern will continue this weekend. Timing summer rain is one of the tougher forecasts we make. The models do a much better job with big, "stratiform" winter rain/snow events than with finicky, "convective" summertime thunderstorms.
That said, here's my best shot at picking your "sunny spots" this weekend.
Friday night: Scattered showers & T-Storms Low 57. Wind E 5-12 mph.
Saturday: Mixed clouds with scattered shower/T-Storm chances. Trending sunnier late PM & evening? High 78. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Choppy lakes.
Saturday Night: Clearing, warmer and more humid. Starting to feel like summer. Low near 66. Balmy south breeze 5-15 mph.
Sunday: Instant July. Best beach & lake day. Mostly sunny hazy, stinking hot & humid. Record hgh near 97! (Record is 95) Wind S 5-15 mph. Growing severe risk late PM.
Sunday Night: Severe storm risk. Heavy rainfall again possible. Low near 65.
Memorial Day: AM showers & T-Storms may linger. Chance for PM & evening sun? High 74. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
Severe weather: Keep the weather radio (and MPR) handy
There is a slight risk for a severe storm Saturday, but all the ingredients may come together late Sunday for severe storms in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A cold front will cut into a hot, steamy air mass over Minnesota by late Sunday. Severe storms may rapidly erupt along the front as the "cap" breaks Sunday afternoon.
SPC has already placed a risk "bull's eye" over Minnesota for late Sunday.
Source: NOAA/SPC
Of the 3 summer holiday weekends in Minnesota; you're "climatologically" most likely to get wet during Memorial Day Weekend. It's no big surprise that we'll see some ran this weekend, and maybe some severe weather.
We're now working into the peak time of year for severe weather in Minnesota. Severe weather frequency climbs rapidly in May, and peaks in June.
Is it any big surprise that we should see a few severe storms on Memorial Day weekend?
This "Bud's" for you!
As if another potent low jetting for Minnesota wasn't enough, how about a little "tropical moisture" with your thunderstorms?
Hurricane Bud reached Cat 3 this week. That's the earliest ever for the eastern Pacific according to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground.
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall.
Source: NASA MODIS
The remnants of dissipating Hurricane Bud along the Mexican coast may get picked up in the upper flow ahead of our low pressure system, and "injected" into Minnesota by Sunday night and Monday.
Source: NOAA/NHC
The extra infusion of tropical moisture could enhance rainfall in Minnesota. It's relatively rare, but moisture from the tropical Pacific does occasionally get pumped into our storms, and this weekend could be one of those events. Sometimes the models "misunderestimate" the amount of additional moisture being pumped into this systems. If it does, there is a chance that we could see another bout of torrential rains linger into Memorial Day.
MPR (and former WCCO radio) meteorologist Bill Endersen will man the MPR weather lab this weekend and have updates as needed.
Stay tuned, and have a great weekend!
PH
May 2012 Now Ranking Among the Wettest
Posted at 2:07 PM on May 25, 2012
by Mark Seeley
(0 Comments)
With the frequency of heavy thunderstorms dominating the Minnesota landscape this month, some observers are reporting one of the wettest Mays in history. Currently on a statewide basis this May ranks among the top ten wettest in history. For some individual climate stations it is already among the top five, including:
Chanhassen 9.22 inches (wettest ever)
Chaska 8.53 inches (4th wettest)
Jordan 9.17 inches (3rd wettest)
MSP Airport 8.18 inches (2nd wettest)
Forest Lake 9.62 inches (wettest ever)
Windom 8.40 inches (2nd wettest)
Pipestone 8.29 inches (4th wettest)
New Ulm 8.16 inches (4th wettest)
Mora 8.56 inches (wettest ever)
Floodwood 7.32 inches (wettest ever)
With more rainfall due this month over the weekend and into the middle of next week, it is likely this May will move up the state rankings among the wettest. The all-time state record value for May of 13.21 inches at Hokah in 2004 may be safe unless another intense thunderstorm delivers several inches to one of these communities.
Heavy rains drench a large part of Minnesota
Posted at 5:12 PM on May 24, 2012
by Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Record, Storms, Thunderstorms
Excessive rainfall drenched a large region of Minnesota the past 24 hours. The far northwest corner of the state missed out on the more-than-generous rainfall amounts.
Doppler rainfall estimates since Wednesday through 5 p.m. CDT
Source:Weatherunderground
Here are some reports from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen of rainfall from midday Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday.
Strong-to-severe thunderstorms formed in far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Wind damage was reported in Eau Claire, Wis., as well as Fillmore and Winona Counties in Minnesota. Here's a list of storm reports from the LaCrosse NWS office. Click on previous version for earlier reports.
In case you missed it, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport reached a record high of 89 degrees on Wednesday. The previous record was 88 set in 2010 and 1874.
As Memorial Day weekend approaches, the weather will quiet down for 36 hours or so. Temperatures should be a tad below normal on Friday. Cloud cover and a risk of showers are likely to hold down temperatures on Saturday. A surge of warmer air arrives in southern Minnesota on Sunday.
Sunday's predicted high temperatures.
Source: NOAA/NWS
Warmer temperatures, increasing south winds and humidity will lead to severe storms Sunday evening and Sunday night. You will want to stay tuned for updates on the risk of nasty weather later in the holiday weekend.
LIVE: Heavy rain and severe weather updates
Posted at 8:55 AM on May 24, 2012
by Molly Bloom
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather
Overnight deluge; Severe and tornado risk today
Posted at 8:31 AM on May 24, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
3" to 6" of rain overnight just west of metro
Severe risk today includes tornado threat for southeast MN & much of WI
SPC upgrades risk to "moderate" for much of WI
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Severe (and tornado) risk today:
The next wave of low pressure spinning up has added twisting low level winds to storms today. The threat for tornadoes is there, especially from SE MN into WI.
Source: NOAA/SPC
The best chance for potential tornado spawning T-Storms is between noon and 6pm today, but we can't rule out a tornado this morning in SE MN.
SPC has posted a 10% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point from the east metro south & east into WI. That's rare, and a pretty good indicator of how serious the tornado threat is today.
Storms in southern MN are already showing signs of hail strong rotation this morning.
Stay aware for possible watches and warnings today!
PH
Storms firing West & North; Better Memorial weekend outlook?
Posted at 3:40 PM on May 23, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall
Update 5pm:
Storms now firing west of metro from New Ulm to Glencoe, Buffalo & Monicello. 65 mph wind gust recorded at New Ulm at 4:35pm.
MPX: NEW ULM MUNI,MN (ULM) ASOS reports gust of 65.0 knots from W @ 2153Z
Source: WxUnderground
3:40pm Update:
So far storms are firing along the frontal zone through western and central Minnesota west & north of the metro.
Storms firing along frontal zone in west-central & northern Minnesota.
Source: WxUndeground
SPC says there is a 40% chance of a watch in western MN, and an 80% chance in Iowa.
Source: NOAA/SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SD AND WRN/CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231904Z - 232030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF ELEVATED AND NEAR-SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD AND WRN/CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
The metro appears to be storm free this afternoon and possibly until early evening. The bulk of rain and storms may arrive in the metro overnight.
Still keeping an eye on the potential for development in southwest Minensota this afternoon.
PH
Flash Flood Watch through 1pm Thursday
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Stalled front = Heavy rainfall totals
2" to 4" rainfall totals likely for NE-central and southern MN by Thursday evening
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Quick Look Forecast: From updated NWS site coming soon (Click to enlarge)
Slight severe risk Especially from a Fairmont-Mankato-Twin Cities line by late PM & evening
"EHI Index" indicates isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, especially near the Iowa border
Slightly better outlook evolving for Memorial Day Weekend?
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Stormy Wednesday:
If today's weather were a song, the classic T-Bone Walker blues jam "Stormy Monday" would do...even on a Wednesday.
A stalled cool front and low pressure riding along the front the next 24 hours will keep heavy rain, thunder, and a slight risk of severe weather in the forecast.
A flash flood watch covers most of central Minnesota and the metro until 1pm Thursday.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH 100 PM THURSDAY....THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EFFECTIVE FROM 700 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 100 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE THE TWIN CITIES...SAINT CLOUD...MANKATO...WILLMAR AND REDWOOD FALLS.A COLD FRONT THAT WAS DRAPED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO VARY FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING OVER THREE INCHES.
Heavy "Rainers:"
The stalled front will focus waves of showers & T-Storms along and near the front. A parallel upper flow means the front will sit, and storms will "train" fro SW to NE over the same ground...like individual boxcars riding along the same track. Each storm will dump rain over the same general areas as they move northeast.
The result will be some heavy rainfall totals by Thursday afternoon. I'm looking at data that suggests 2" to 4" for many locations, with the potential for 4"+ in a few spots.
Source: NWS data via wx.caster.com
The front should finally blow east into Wisconsin by Thursday evening, ending the rain threat.
Severe Risk?
Clouds may limit the severe risk for a time today, but sunshine along the eastern end of the front will destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and evening.
SPC has laid out a slight risk for severe storms, with the primary threats being wind and hail from the metro south & west.
Source: NOAA SPC
Looking at soundings today, there is enough low level wind shear forecast today that I can't rule out the possibility of isolated supercells capable of producing a tornado later today.
The "EHI" (Engergy Helicity Index) suggest enough shear or "spin" in the lowest 3,000 feet of the atmosphere to generate tornadoes.
PM forecast "sounding" near Manakto, MN. Note on right how winds twist from SE near ground to SW then west with height.
Source: twisterdata.com
Source: twisterdata.com
The highest chance of an isolated tornado appears to be in Iowa, but a slight threat also runs from near Fairmont, through Mankato to near the Twin Cities this afternoon and evening.
Keep the weather radio handy later today and this evening.
Memorial Day Weekend: Forecast Improving?
The latest model runs suggest a slightly better outlook for the Twin Cities this Memorial Day weekend.
If the latest GFS solution verifies, we may sneak in a couple of "nice" days this weekend in the metro, but northern Minnesota may stay in higher rain & T-Storm coverage..
The GFS suggests we may work into the "warm sector" Sunday in the metro, meaning a warm sticky Sunday with highs near 90. The latest trend suggest the cool front could trigger storms Sunday night, and the front may push east by Memorial Day...leaving a partly cloudy, cooler and less humid and more pleasant day in its wake for Memorial Day.
We'll see, I'm not totally sold on the better outlook yet. If the front stalls, Monday could still be a washout, but the trend is encouraging. What could possibly go wrong on a summer holiday weekend in Minnesota?
Here's a stab at the weekend forecast based on the latest model changes.
Friday: Mostly sunny and pleasant! High 74. Light NW winds.
Saturday: Scattered showers & T-Storms. High near 73. Wind E 10-20 mph. Choppy lakes.
Sunday: Stormy north. Hazy hot & humid south & metro. High near 90 metro, 70s north. Metro storms Sunday night. Wind S 5-15 mph.
Memorial Day: Scattered showers north. Partly cloudy south. Breezy cooler & less humid. Metro high near 70, 60s north. Wind NW 8-18 mph.
Stay dry today...and keep an eye out for storms PM & evening!
PH
Stormy Wednesday: Severe risk; Heavy rain totals
Posted at 5:12 PM on May 22, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Aurora
Cold front moving into Minnesota Wednesday
T-Storms likely Wednesday afternoon & night
Quick Look Forecast: (Click to enlarge)
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Slight risk for severe storms according to SPC
1" to 2" rainfall totals possible by Thursday afternoon
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Wednesday Rain & Thunder:
Get ready for our next round of rain & thunder in Minnesota Wednesday.
A cold front will cut into a warm and increasingly humid air mass over Minnesota Wednesday.
Scattered storms should begin to develop in central Minnesota long the front Wednesday afternoon.
A few of the storms may reach severe limits, and SPC has placed parts of southern Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather, including the Twin Cities metro area.
Slight risk Wednesday
Source: NOAA/SPC
The best chance for storms appears to be anytime after 2pm Wednesday, and storms should continue to develop through Wednesday night into Thursday as the front stalls overhead.
Topical downpours may deliver same heavy rainfall totals. The upper wind flow will run parallel to the front, and that means storms may "train" moving over the same area and dumping heavy rainfall.
Locally 1" to 2" rainfall totals may be common, and it's possible some areas could pick up in excess of 3" by Thursday afternoon.
Heavy rainfall potential Wednesday & Thursday
Source: NOAA via wxcaster.com
Keep the weather radio, and the umbrella handy Wednesday & Thursday!
PH
MPR Live in North Minneapolis; Summery today; Storms tomorrow
Posted at 7:16 AM on May 22, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Tornadoes
Quick look forecast: (Click for bigger image)
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Source: Twin Cities NWS
1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado of May 22, 2011
After the Storm: An All Things Considered Special
MPR news live from North Minneapolis Tuesday
(All Things Considered with Tom Crann Tuesday from 3-6:30pm)
The tornado that hit North Minneapolis on May 22, 2011 resulted in two deaths, more than 3,700 damaged structures and millions of dollars in needed repairs. One year later, MPR News revisits the neighborhood to see how the recovery was managed, what gaps remain and what's next for the North Side.Join All Things Considered host Tom Crann for a special live broadcast from the University of Minnesota's Urban Research and Outreach Engagement Center in North Minneapolis on Tuesday, May 22 from 3:00 to 6:30 p.m. We will report on the North Side after the tornado, and Mayor R.T. Rybak, MPR meteorologist Paul Huttner, community leaders, activists and residents join Tom Crann to celebrate the progress, discuss lessons learned and consider strategies for the future. The event is free and open to the public.
Boating safety week this week
Here are some great tips for boaters this season.
There are no specific warnings or advisories for lightning but all thunderstorms produce lightning. A lightning strike to a vessel can be catastrophic, especially if it results in a fire or loss of electronics. If your boat has a cabin, then stay inside and avoid touching metal or electrical devices. If your boat doesn't have a cabin, stay as low as you can in the boat.
Next two months are the "brightest" days of 2012 in Minnesota
15+ hours of daylight from now until July 23rd
Tropical Storm Alberto - earliest Atlantic tropical storm since "Ana" in 2003
Windy & warmer Today
Growing T-Storm chances Wednesday PM & Thursday
North Minneapolis Tornado: 1 year after
Today marks a year since the EF1 North Minneapolis tornado. The twister is a reminder that urban tornadoes can and do occur, and that we're vulnerable to such events.
What strikes me most about the North Minneapolis tornado is the amount of damage a relatively "weak" EF1 tornado with 110 mph winds caused, and the disruption of lives that continues a year later.
Source: Twin Cities NWS
I don't even want to think about what will happen when the next EF3 or EF4 tornado tears through the Twin Cities metro with winds of 150mph to 200 mph. That's a completely different (and for most of us unimaginable) level of damage and destruction.
That's why we produced "Storm Ready?"... the joint tornado project last week with MPR News and KARE11.
Join us today from 3pm to 6:30pm during All Things Considered with Tom Crann as we mark 1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado. The MPR news team will cover numerous angles, and I'll be live in North Minneapolis with Tom Crann with an in depth discussion on the tornado that struck one year ago.
Brightest days of 2012 ahead!
Daylight lovers rejoice!
The next 9 weeks of the year are the "brightest" of 2102.
We're basking in more than 15 hours of daylight between now and July 23rd.
Daylight peaks at 15 hours and 36 minutes the week of the summer solstice, which occurs at 6:09pm on Wednesday June 20th.
These are the earliest mornings and longest evenings of the year in Minnesota and the northern hemisphere. The next 6 weeks are the best time to take that evening bike ride of get in a round of golf after (or before??) work.
http://www.die.net/earth/
One of my favorite things about this time of year is that the sun rises and sets well north of due east/west. You can notice sunlight on clear evenings shining on the north side of homes and into north facing windows in the early morning and evening.
Outlook: Pattern change ahead
A strong but balmy south wind will boost temperatures Tuesday. Bank thermometers will blink mid to upper 80s in southern Minnesota by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds gusting to and over 30 mph will whip up whitecaps on Minnesota lakes Tuesday.
The next frontal system arrives Wednesday with a chance of scattered T-Storms. The front will stall Wednesday night over Minnesota...and a second wave of low pressure will ride northeast along the frontal boundary Thursday.
The waves of showers and T-Storms have the potential to bring more tropical style downpours to Minnesota this week. Rainfall totals may exceed 1" to 2" by Thursday evening in many areas.
Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com
Tropical Storm Alberto: Earliest in 9 years!
Tropical Storm Alberto brushed the Carolina Coast over the weekend. The storm is the earliest to form in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003.
Source: NASA
WxUnderground's hurricane specialist Jeff Masters has some historical context.
Here's an excerpt.
Alberto in historical contextAlberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.
Native American moon names: A sign of climate change?
This month's Ojibwe moon name according my trusty Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar is the "budding plants moon."
The various Native American moon names say a lot about just how in tune these people were with our changing weather and seasons. They named the moons to describe what was happening in the environment each month of the year.
With our frost landscape fully "leafed out" now for nearly a month, clearly the landscape looks different these days than it did a hundred or more years ago when the moon names evolved.
The Native Americans were astute observers of changes in their environment, even early phenologists. The fact that monthly moon names no longer reflect the reality of our landscape may be as good as any sign that our climate is changing dramatically.
PH
Welcome to Omaha: 12th straight warm month; Stormy pattern ahead
Posted at 8:46 AM on May 21, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Quick look forecast: (Click to expand)
Source: Twin Cities NWS
+5.8 degrees vs. average so far this May at MSP Airport
12th straight month above average n Minnesota
52 degrees - average temp in the metro the past 12 months
51 degrees - average annual temp in Omaha, Nebraska
4.79" rainfall so far in May at MSP
+2.62" vs. average this month
15 hours of daylight in Minnesota this week through July 23rd
1 year tomorrow - the anniversary of the May 22nd Minneapolis & Joplin tornadoes
Acitve & stormy pattern developing later this week
Sunset last week on Lake Minnetonka.
Photo by Paul Huttner-MPR News
Welcome to Omaha! (With lakes)
Sid Hartman used to threaten us all the time.
"Take away professional sports in Minnesota and all we are in the Twin Cities is a "Cold Omaha!"
He may have been onto something in a backwards, unintentional sort of way.
May marks the 12th straight month of (significantly) above average temps in Minnesota. If you average up the past year at MSP Airport, temps are running about 5.7 degrees warmer than average. The 30-year average annual temp for the Twin Cities is about46.3 degrees. In the past year, it's been closer to 52 degrees.
That's close to the annual average temp for Omaha, Nebraska...which runs about 51 degrees!
If you've ever wondered what it would be like to live in a climate like Omaha, living in the metro in the past year is about as close as you can get.
So the Twin Cities really is "as warm as Omaha" in the past year.
Go Huskers!
May 22, 2011: 1 year later
Damage in North Minneapolis.
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Tomorrow marks the 1 year anniversary of the North Minneapolis tornado.
A 3D look at the Minneapolis tornado from the Chanhassen radar. The "column of red" is a descending core of air moving away from the radar that can sometimes be seen when stronger tornadic storms are close to a radar (greens represent air moving toward and reds away from the radar). The first image where a column appears is when the storm was near I-394 and MN-100 (fourth image in loop), which is where the tornado touched down. This feature began to fall apart as it moved into Anoka County. This coincides with the tornado weakening as it moved through Fridley.
Source: Twin Cities NWS
The EF1 twister packed winds of 100-110 mph as it tore through neighborhoods on the north side of 394 according to the Twin Cities NWS.
...STRONG EF-1 RATING ASSIGNED TO THE TORNADO THAT HIT NORTH MINNEAPOLIS AND OTHER AREAS...WINDS OF 100 TO 110 MPH WERE PRODUCED BY THE TORNADO THAT HIT NORTHMINNEAPOLIS...ST. LOUIS PARK...GOLDEN VALLEY...FRIDLEY...MOUNDS VIEWAND BLAINE.IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR SIX AND ONE QUARTER MILES IN HENNEPIN COUNTY...PLUS AN ADDITIONAL EIGHT MILES ACROSS ANOKA ANDRAMSEY COUNTIES AS THE TORNADO WENT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDLEY...MOUNDS VIEW...AND BLAINE.THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 14 AND 1/4 MILES. THE TORNADO WAS ABOUT1/2 MILE WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. THE TIME OF TOUCHDOWN WAS 213 PM.ACCORDING TO VARIOUS SECURITY CAMERAS...THE TORNADO MOVED INTO FRIDLEY AT 222 PM. THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN IN ST. LOUIS PARK WAS 3/4 OF A MILE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 394 AND HIGHWAY100 WHERE TWO BUSINESSES SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST...CROSSING HIGHWAY 100 WHERE IT HIT THE FIRST RESIDENCESALONG CEDAR LAKE ROAD. IT THEN ENTERED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OFGOLDEN VALLEY...CROSSED INTERSTATE 394 AND HEADED FOR THEODORE WIRTH PARK. DURING THIS TIME IT TOOK A BIT OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND BEGANMOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS WIRTH LAKE AND ENTERED THE CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS BETWEEN GLENWOOD AVENUE AND 16TH AVENUE. UP TO THISPOINT...DAMAGE WAS EF-0 WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAMAGE BEINGDOWNED TREES ATOP BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES. AS THE TORNADO ENTERED MINNEAPOLIS, IT STRENGTHENED TO EF-1...AND BEGAN DEMOLISHING GARAGES...SHEDS...AND PARTIALLY REMOVING ROOFS. THERE WAS A HOUSE HERE OR THERE THAT HAD THEIR ROOFS COMPLETELY REMOVED...BUT ADJACENT HOUSES AND OTHER NEARBY STRUCTURES AND TREES DID NOT SUPPORT RAISINGTHE LEVEL TO EF-2.
64 tornadoes were reported that day in the USA, including the devastating Joplin, MO EF5 tornado. That tornado was the costliest ($2.8 Billion) and deadliest (158 killed, 1,000+ injured) in the USA in more than 50 years.
I'll be live on MPR News Stations Tuesday afternoon with Tom Crann and the All Things Considered crew from North Minneapolis to mark the anniversary of the North Minneapolis tornado. Join us from 3pm to 6:30pm!
Active & stormy pattern ahead:
After a picture perfect Monday, the jet stream appears ready to deal Minnesota a series of storms every 2-3 days over the next 2 weeks.
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Warm winds will blow again Tuesday, and I can't rule out an isolated T-Storm as the warm front blows in on gusty south winds.
The better chances for rain will come again Wednesday night & Thursday, as scattered thunder rumbles in.
After that, a wave of storms appears on track ever 2-3 days including Saturday, Memorial Day and into next week.
Source: Iowa State University
The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty typical for Minnesota this year, with a mix of sun, heat and storms.
Friday looks spectacular with sun and highs in the 70s. Storms favor Saturday and Memorial Day. Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend, and the best day to hit the lake or beach with a high of 92 in the metro.
Of the 3 big summer "holiday weekends" Memorial Day brings the best chance of rain climatologically speaking, You have a better chance of staying dry on the 4th of July or Labor Day.
Enjoy this picture perfect Monday!
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PAUL HUTTNER is the chief meteorologist for MPR. Paul has worked in radio television in Minneapolis, Tucson and Chicago. A graduate of Macalester College in St. Paul, Paul is a full member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and has been awarded the AMS Television Seal of Approval. Paul is also the author of Updraft, MPR's weather blog.
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