Well, after the cool and wet spring we've been experiencing, it's time to look for the silver lining. I spied some colorful tulips on my morning walk. That's a start!

On the heels of recent abundant moisture, followed by twelve hours of sunshine on Wednesday, the grass has greened, tree buds are enfolding and dandelions are peppering in the parkways in southern Minnesota.

Time has arrived to ponder a strategy for planting the annuals, arranging the patio furniture and trying to fire up the lawn mower. Hard to beat the aroma of freshly mowed grass to awaken the senses to the essence of spring.

For decades, as a meteorologist, I would caution the early birds about rushing to plant the annuals. A few folks just couldn't restrain themselves, only to be perturbed by a frost in mid May. Best advice has always been to wait until after Mother's Day to sprinkle the gardens and perimeter of the home with a colorful array of assorted flowers.

So here we are, on the brink of Mother's Day and we are cautiously optimistic that a killing frost is growing less likely for the southern third of Minnesota. Clouds and periods of showers are likely to hold daytime temperatures below normal, but also keeping overnight minimums not much cooler than forty degrees.

Spring frost free date in Minnesota

It just might be a little to damp to putter in the garden this weekend.
CE

What a difference a year makes.

Last year at this time we we're kicking off a drought in much of Minnesota. This year farmers are behind on planting in soggy fields.

It's funny how nature has a way of catching up and evening things out over time.

La Crosse (34.06") and Rochester (33.20") has seen the wettest August to April period on record.

Long duration wet period

West Central to Northwest Minnesota endured record April snows of more than 3 feet.

Record April snowfall

The recovery of Minnesota lakes and rivers has been nothing short of remarkable. Lake Minnetonka's water level is up over a foot, about 15 inches since August.

Lake Minnetonka water levels

Even gigantic Lake Superior is up 6" in April and up over 10" since last August. The world's largest freshwater lake by surface area is back, but still stands 8" below average.

The U.S. Drought Monitor now shows all of Minnesota is drought free, and the Minnesota crop report finds farmers struggling to get crops planted in muddy fields this spring.

Drought monitor

Minnesota crop report

We'd like to schedule some nice weather for the weekend, but it looks wet again. The overall upper air pattern is chaotic, but keeps an stubborn upper low centered over Hudson Bay, dealing Minnesota alternating 2 to 3 day periods of sunny cool weather followed by cool wet systems spinning through.

I'm looking for a change in the overall hemispheric long wave pattern which would signal a change to a warmer and drier weather regime. When I see it, I'll be the one shouting in joy from the rooftop of the Huttner Weather Lab.

PH

Check out these amazing images of storm surge flooding miles inland in Myanmar after the landfall of cyclone Nargis.

In some places, the coastline is as much as 12 miles further inland.

NOAA satellite images

PH

As anticipated yesterday, the warm front that ushered in temperatures in the 70s to central and southern Minnesota has also fired up showers and thunderstorms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect this afternoon for southwest Minnesota. If sunshine reappears around the Twin Cities later today, the instability will increase and severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening.

Track thunderstorms and severe weather potential

Cooler weather is in store the remainder of the week. A wet Saturday may dampen your excitement about working the garden and yard.
CE

I sent Cathy Wurzer a note early today as I spied a red sky this morning. The old saying goes something like this:

"Red sky in the morning, sailors warning. Red sky at night, sailors delight." There is often some meteorological truth to weather lore. Cirrus and other clouds can refract light to produce a reddish tint to the sky. If you see it at night, the setting sun in the west is hitting those clouds off to your east that have already passed you by, indicating that good weather is approaching from the west. In the morning the sun is shining on clouds to the east, and the potential storms headed your way.

Red sky proverb

Of course this applies to the mid-latitudes where the westerlies generally move weather from west to east.

Look for the possibility of storms spreading from west to east later this afternoon and evening in Minnesota. There is a slight risk for large hail and high winds with some of the storms. At this time the atmosphere seems to lack the strong directional wind shear needed for widespread tornadoes.

SPC severe weather risk

It was 43 years ago today that we saw the biggest tornado outbreak in Twin Cities history. The May 6, 1965 outbreak produced 6 tornadoes, four of which were F4 in strength. 13 were killed, 683 injured. The Fridley tornado was on the ground for 18 miles.

May 6, 1965 tornadoes

I remember the hail tinted green sky as the tornadoes passed through Deephaven that day. Surveying the damage made quite an impression on me. It's the reason I watch the weather closely here at the Weather Lab each day.

PH

With the cooler than normal weather and an overall damp spring, the fire danger has been minimal compared to this time last year. But the abundant sunshine, low relative humidity and increasing winds will create an enhanced threat for grassland fires in southwest Minnesota this afternoon.

Southwest Minnesota fire danger

You can track the fire danger forecast on the National Weather Service Web site. Once we go green in a week or so, the potential for wide spread grass fires will be minimized.
Nation's fire danger potential

Showers and thunderstorms are possible as we move through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some thunderstorms could approach severe limits with large hail later on Tuesday.

Risk of severe weather southern Minnesota
CE

Thunderstorms fired up in the vicinity of a warm front last evening in southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Some of the strong thunderstorms put down a few tornadoes.

Severe weather reports from the Sioux Falls Weather Service

Storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center

During the next twenty-four hours nature will play out a very similar scenario as we viewed from the weather lab last Friday. A low pressure system will travel from far northwest Missouri to western Wisconsin. Minnesotans are in the path of some soggy weather.

Milder temperatures in southeast Minnesota may spawn thunderstorms that could become severe. Meanwhile, on the colder, northwest, side of the path of the low, a cold wind driven rain is likely from Willmar to Long Prairie to Milaca. Rain may mix with snow after dark.

Since the weather is trending more spring like, with the increasing potential for severe weather you may wish to bookmark the website to monitor the storm threat from the Storm Prediction Center.

Storm Prediction Center Forecast

We look to salvage a rather decent Sunday as the storm system pulls off to our east.
CE

On the most recent MPR podcast, Jet Streaming, the weather geeks hosted allergist Dr. Richard Seveum. This interview coincides with National Air Quality week and gave us a chance to discuss the emergence of allergy season. Check out this informing program for more details.

How's the air quality today?

As the foliage blossoms, resulting from warmer temperatures, along comes the pollen and ragweed. There is a website to monitor the daily conditions across the nation and in major metropolitan areas. At least twenty-five percent of the population suffers from hay fever.

In the next twenty-four to forty-eight hours much of Minnesota will experience a flushing, so to speak, as locally heavy rain develops. Some portions of the state could get cleansed with more than an inch of rain. Already well saturated soils are likely to remain quite soggy into early next week.

Impending precipitation potential
CE

It's been said there really is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather.

Sometimes a cool rain can ruin your outdoor event, but be a godsend to farmers during a dry spell. I think many Minnesotans are having a tough time finding the "good" in the near term forecast.

It looks like our next weather system will bring us 42 hours of "bad" weather. From around 6pm tonight, to noon Saturday we can expect wind and rain at times. The peak of the storm will come Friday it appears. One computer forecast model is touting a steady wind driven rain most of Friday and Friday night. One model cranks out the possibility of an inch or more of rain for the metro. Another says closer to half an inch. There may be just enough cold air mixing in to see a few wet snowflakes as the system winds down Saturday morning.

Twin Cities weather story

Things improve dramatically by Sunday. In fact we may see sunshine and lighter winds as early as late Saturday afternoon.

Look for a nicer stretch of weather starting Sunday and lasting into next week. More sun, lighter winds and temps in the upper 60's to near 70 will feel great after our "good" weather early this weekend.

PH

In this business we are constantly probing, investigating and examining data to make sure are statements about impending weather are as accurate as possible. Accuracy nurtures confidence in credibility. All the while remembering, we are only as good as our last forecasts and further, we are simply the messengers.

Perhaps the question of the day, as we close out a chilly month of April, is there hope for a warm up looking ahead to May? We feel your pain if you are anxious to get in the garden, fields and flower beds.

So here's the combined best guess of the powerhouse talent at the Climate Predication Center for the weather outlook for both May and the ninety day outlook for May through July. One could surmise, from comparing the May outlook to the remainder of the ninety day outlook, that a transition takes place to warmer weather as we move through late May.

Thirty and ninety day outlook

In the short term, long periods of unseasonably mild weather do not appear in the numerical models.

Six to ten day outlook

Wouldn't it be nice to just settle for what nature offers and perhaps be one day pleasantly surprised!
CE