Poll watch: How is Pawlenty doing?

Posted at 3:07 PM on November 15, 2010 by Tom Scheck (3 Comments)
Filed under: Pawlenty travel, Tim Pawlenty

Public Policy Polling surveyed voters in 18 states and asked who they would vote for among candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination. The polls were done on eve of the 2010 midterms.

Gov. Pawlenty polled in single digits in every state except for Minnesota. He was ahead in the Minnesota poll by one percentage point. Sarah Palin and someone else/undecided came in second in Minnesota at 18 percent.

There are few things to note with these polls.

First, this is a hypothetical field, since none of these candidates have said whether or not they're making a run for the White House. But since there is no clear front runner in these polls it's a large signal that the field is unsettled. It helps the lower level candidates that no clear favorite is emerging.

The poll surveyed Democrats, Republicans and Independent voters. The results could change if it polled only GOP voters, who are more likely to vote in a primary/caucus.

Update from pollster: A correction: these polls did not poll Democrats or independents in any state where there is a closed primary. They were all predicated on those who said they usually vote in Republican primaries--only those who said they do that were asked who they favor in the primaries.

Polls also change as candidates enter and leave the race. That will change the makeup of the contest as the primary races unfold.

Finally, polls are only a snapshot in time. There are still roughly 14 months until the Iowa Caucuses.

With that being said, here's how Pawlenty fared in each of the states polled by PPP.

Note: I also included the person at the top of each state poll in this post. A link to the polls can be found below.

Alaska
Pawlenty polled at 5 percent
(Someone else/undecided at 25 percent, Mike Huckabee at 17 percent).

Kentucky
Pawlenty polled at 1 percent
(Huckabee at 26 percent).

North Carolina
Pawlenty polled at 4 percent
(Newt Gingrich at 23 percent)

Ohio
Pawlenty polled 6 percent.
(Sarah Palin at 20 percent)

Nevada
Pawlenty polled at 2 percent
(Mitt Romney at 34 percent)

Washington
Pawlenty polled at 4 percent
(Someone else/undecided at 24 percent, Sarah Palin at 19 percent)

Florida
Pawlenty polled at 4 percent
(Romney at 28 percent)

Maine
Pawlenty polled at 3 percent
(Someone else/undecided at 23 percent and Palin at 23 percent)

Minnesota
Pawlenty polled at 19 percent
(Palin at 18 percent. Someone else/undecided at 18 percent).

Texas
Pawlenty at 3 percent
(Palin at 22 percent)

West Virginia
Pawlenty polled at 2 percent
(Palin at 25 percent)

Wisconsin
Pawlenty polled at 8 percent
(Someone else/undecided at 28 percent, Palin at 18 percent).

California
Pawlenty polled at 2 percent
(Romney at 25 percent)

Colorado
Pawlenty polled at 6 percent
(Romney at 22 percent)

Connecticut
Pawlenty polled at 5 percent
(Romney at 28 percent)

Illinois
Pawlenty polled at 7 percent
(Someone else/undecided at 23 percent, Huckabee at 18 percent)

New Hampshire
Pawlenty polled at 4 percent
(Romney at 40 percent)

Pennsylvania
Pawlenty at 2 percent
(Huckabee at 23 percent)

You can find links to the polls here, here and here.

Update: The blog, GOP12, gives a broader look at where each candidate stands by state.

Comments (3)

A correction: these polls did not poll Democrats or independents in any state where there is a closed primary. They were all predicated on those who said they usually vote in Republican primaries--only those who said they do that were asked who they favor in the primaries.

Posted by Public Policy Polling | November 15, 2010 4:15 PM

I'll fix. Thanks.

Posted by tom scheck | November 15, 2010 4:45 PM

Tim Pawlenty may have cleared Garrison Keillor's "above average" threshold years ago, but now he's just average. He's a finger-in-the-wind politician who Minnesota barely elected governor -- and only by plurality -- twice.

Witness his brief foray into global warming when those winds were blowing strong among the general electorate. Now he's Mr. anti-Obamacare. His only claim to GOP fame is "no new taxes." Surely Republicans can do better than Pawlenty, whose lack of inspirational leadership is matched only by his lack of proposing any compelling conservative public policy the last eight years.

Posted by Rudy | November 15, 2010 5:43 PM

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