Survey USA Poll: Minnesota's 6th a dead heat

Posted at 10:06 PM on October 23, 2008 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

Survey USA has a new poll out that takes a look at the race in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. The poll shows the race is a statistical dead heat when you factor in the Margin of Error.

47% of those polled back DFL challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg. 44% support GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann. 6% support I-P candidate Bob Anderson. 2% are undecided. The MOE is +/-4%.

This is the first poll taken since Bachmann made her controversial comments on MSNBC's Hardball last Friday. It won't be the only poll on the race. MPR will release a poll on the 6th District Race tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, a GOP operative tells Politico that the GOP is all but "writing off" Bachmann's seat. The story focuses on the trouble the NRCC is having when it comes to protecting GOP this year.

Comments (1)

It is not a dead heat. That term is a bunch of malarkey (if not someothing stronger) used by some pollsters and some media outlet to minimize the risk of being perceived as having made a mistake. If the margin of error is +/- 4%, a 3% lead means that the odds are at least 2:1 (and probably higher) that the person shown as leading in the poll is truly in the lead. That's not a dead heat.

The proper phrasing is "Candidate X leads Candidate Y but 3%, abut this lies within the polls margin of error", or perhaps, "...but this lead is not statitistically significant." It's a statistical dead heat only if the candidates are tied.

I am a former pollster and former media commentator.

Posted by judas_priest | October 24, 2008 12:18 AM

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