Posted at 9:39 AM on March 24, 2006
by Ben Tesch
The stat geek at Replacement Level Yankees crunched the projection numbers on a bunch of simulators, and guess who comes out on top in the AL Central? The Twinkies. They are projected to get about 87 wins and take the division, with Chicago and Cleveland in close vicinity. Detroit isn't that far away either. The Twins have about a 48% chance of making the playoffs by the numbers.
But then again, I think he speaks for alot of people who he says "Minnesota seems kind of high to me. I'd put them behind Cleveland and the White Sox." I'm pretty sure why someone came up with this phrase: "that's why they play the game."
87 wins doesn't seem unreasonable--it's pretty much in the normal range of fluctuation. I'd be surprised, though, if 87 wins is enough to win the division. It could be, but it would seem likely that either Chicago or Cleveland will win more than that.
Like the projections say, it all depends on injuries, roster changes, and over/under performance. Chicago, for example, had a slight case of the "over" last year.
How accurate are these stats? Does the stat geek ever run them against last year, for example, to see how close it came? Or test prior year seasons? It'd be interesting to know what kind of margin of error this prediction machine has.