Commentary
India's role in Pakistan makes it a target in Afghanistan
by William DavnieLast Thursday, the Indian Embassy in Kabul was targeted in a suicide bombing. Headlines about the event could have been cut from newspapers of July 2008. Same target, same idea, with more or less the same folks -- the Taliban or an ally -- perpetrating the deed.
When lightning -- or bombing -- strikes twice in the same place, maybe it's not just coincidence. Maybe there's a reason -- and there is. And while the bombing happened in Kabul, the reason has mostly to do with India and Pakistan.
Pro-Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan conducted the 2008 bombing with help from Pakistan's intelligence service, according to U.S. analysts and most knowledgeable observers.
While it's too soon to be certain about last week's bombing, the Taliban has already claimed responsibility, and the intent appears to be much the same -- an assault on Indian influence in Afghanistan.
The question for Americans is why.
Like too many world problems, this one has roots in the colonial era -- specifically, the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. Whatever the good reasons for the decision by Great Britain to divide the jewel of its empire into two states, one Muslim and one largely Hindu, the experience itself was traumatic and messy.
In particular, it left a running sore in Kashmir -- a state whose Muslim population would have placed it in Pakistan, but whose Hindu ruler led it to side with the much larger India. The fate of this storied land has led to three wars between Pakistan and India, and an abiding fear of India in Pakistan.
For most of its existence, Pakistan has focused its official military strategy on its Indian border, while unofficially it has supported insurgent and terrorist groups in Kashmir. When India surprised the world with its nuclear bomb in 1974, Pakistan felt obliged to follow suit, and 1998 exploded its "Islamic bomb" to show it would not be threatened by its eastern rival.
The United States and other observers consider Pakistan's fears ill founded, and its national security strategy counter-productive. But in such matters perception becomes reality, and Pakistan perceives a real threat from India.
But that is all to Pakistan's east. On its western border, Pakistan felt it had a peaceful and friendly, if primitive, neighbor, a "deep security zone" that allowed it to focus its worries elsewhere. Until, that is, the Cold War intruded.
In 1979 the Red Army moved in to protect a Communist-led government in Kabul -- and India, linked with Moscow throughout the Cold War, also provided aid and advisers.
The United States worked with and through Pakistan to supply Afghan fighters working to oust the Red Army. Our goal was geopolitical -- a Cold War victory. Pakistan's goal was to return a safe, Pakistan-friendly government to Kabul.
Soon those Afghan "freedom fighters" turned into the radical Islamist Taliban, and by 1996 they controlled Kabul. Pakistan may not have supported everything the Taliban stood for and did -- but at least Afghanistan was under control, friendly to Islamabad, and India was out of the picture.
Since the U.S. invasion in 2001, however, that picture has reversed again.
U.S. and NATO troops overthrew the Pakistan-friendly government of Afghanistan, and have since alienated Pushtuns in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. India is back in strength. New Delhi has opened at least 17 embassy branch offices and information centers -- which no serious observer thinks are involved only in trade and visa work. Just as Pakistan uses Kashmir to poke at India, India uses groups in Afghanistan with relatives in Pakistan to poke at Islamabad.
So Pakistan now sees a single threat coming from both east and west. India, in contrast, sees an opportunity in Afghanistan to get back at Pakistan for its meddling in Kashmir, as well as opportunities to increase its influence in Southwest Asia. Put these two starkly opposed perceptions of two nuclear-armed states together, and the result can be quite literally explosive -- even more than we've now seen.
Pakistan needs to put more of its energies into domestic development, and less into military maneuvering. India could help this process by reducing its profile in Afghanistan, and agreeing to serious negotiations over Kashmir.
The United States could aid both of these countries by reducing its profile in Afghanistan, which generates more recruits for the Taliban, and by reminding New Delhi that stability in its region can be more valuable than taking advantage of a troubled neighbor.
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William Davnie retired after a 26-year diplomatic career in the U.S. Foreign Service and now lives in Minneapolis. He has traveled in Afghanistan and served in its northern neighbor, Tajikistan, as well as in Russia and Iraq.
Comments (17)
Yes is it easy to blame Pakistan for everything under the sun. It was India that dismembered Pakistan into two parts in 1971. Its the duty of the larger state and powerful state to show restraint not the small country that is only reacting to the bad intentions of the larger country that has evil intentions.
Afghanistan is the neighbor of Pakistan what the hell is India doing with 17 consulates in Afghanistan. Its just their to interfere in Baluchistan to try to aid the separatists their to further dismember Pakistan. This has been proven and the PM of Pakistan has given the proofs to India and so far no response has been received from Indian officials,
Its easy for Americans to give sermons to Pakistan and not look at reality. Nor have you mentioned what has India done about the promised UNO resolution of a plebiscite and the killing of 80,000 Kashmiris by the Indian forces since the election fraud of 1989 in Kashmir.
As usual the emphasis is just peace without justice for Pakistan against the greatest enemy of Pakistan that is there to take advantage of Pakistan's problems.
The United States will be wise to not preach peace because it has lost the moral high-ground due to morally bankrupt policies from LatAm to Iraq. What the world needs is for the United States to focus on eliminating the Taleban with or without Pakistan's explicit support.
It has been an eternity since I read a remotely accurate article on Pakistan and India, and I have to commend the author for that.
Nevertheless, it is easy to say that Pakistan should put its energies into domestic development, yet difficult to do when India has already established a record of attacking and severing off provinces of Pakistan (East Pakistan 1971).
Even now this hostile approach is charecterisitc of Indian state policy, as is evidenced by the activities of the 17 Indian embassy branch offices which are providing support and resources to terrorists in Balochistan province.
Just yesterday India tested a Pakistan specific nuclear missile, and last week its airforce chief announced that he would be deploying all Indian Mig-29 fighter jets (which number into several squadrons) against Pakistan.
In view of such an existential threat, Pakistan should not be blamed for steps it takes to merely survive in this world.
This article nicely captures the historical problems in that region. Also it highlights that the problem / divisions were fueled more by the interventions of Super Powers Britain, Soviet Union and USA to demonstrate their strength to the world. Ultimately the first two super powers lost their influence and standing in the world. Rather than advising what Afganistan, Pakistan and India has to do obtain peace in the region, it will be better to advise the Super Powers to listen and work with regional players instead of dictating them what they have to do. Though this will not solve the historical problems in that region atleast it will fuel the escalation of tensions. I hope this approach will also help to reduce tensions in the other part of the world as well. Thanks for the article. - Ganesh
Occupation and robbering Kashmir is going on by Muslim Pakistan and Hindu India in the Name of bloody their Gods
So leave me alone ................
We do not need the robbers
We do need good neighbours not the theives
Gill Kashmiri
Mr. Devnie has conveniently missed that India has successfully executed several development projects in Afghanistan; something even the NATO has failed to do in that war-torn country. Unlike India, Pakistan does not have the bandwidth or the desire to rebuild Afghanistan.
Let's not forget that the Russians and the Iranians have felt threatened by the American presence in Afghanistan. Are you suggesting that NATO should've paid heed to them and left Afghanistan years ago because it concerns them, legitimate or not?
Only one question.Is US ready to let go its interests in Iraq,Afganistan,west asia and many places around world.If yes then it has moral right to ask India/Pakistan or anyone to give up these interests else shut and don't interfere.
US should stop preaching others.
Pakistan should stop interfering in others.
India should start focussing on human development within its borders and aim to materialize the potential it has.
Its actually tit for tat. I don't know why pakistan has any problem if India has opened 17 Embassies in Afghanistan. Pakistan is never in peace and dismemberment into small states is must.
US should collaborate with India, Israel and Europe and put forward some Yugoslavia kind of solution where Pakistan should be divided into 5-6 small states. In this way, the taliban will be automatically destroyed. Indian state policies are really good because Pakistan can be taught a lesson in this way only.
In pakistan, the economy is zero, people are jobless, no education so country will die certainly after 10-15 years. Pakistani's blame US but in reality they know that the food they eat is given by US.
The solution for kashmir, Balochistan is very near. i am too a muslim but we are very happy with Indian state and I have firm believe in the same!
Allah will help this world. Make pakistan small like lahore size !!
firts i would like to focus on wat minhas said...india did not dismental paki stat in two and made bangladesh..it was bangladesh(east paki) that came to india for help..TILL DATE MENTION ME ANY WAR WHICH WAS STARTED BY INDIA...NONE..most of em came from pakistan..india just retaliated now wats wrong with tat...
my question to paki state..what the hell u were doin when u had a chance to develope and make more influence in afganistan...insted u freaks were increasin ur under table power by poppin more dickheads from poor villages to attack ur own neighbours..
moreover..paki's state of mind was always created by armyor imaginated by ppl under impression that india is a threat...which is wrong. india would not attack in past nor in future .
last thing to paki is that..STOP LOOKIN OTHERS ASS INSTEAD START WIPING UP UR OWN ONE FIRST...
Davnie, so many thing CIA says you blindly believe in it. I find your commentry bit shalow. I hope next time you will do your own investigation. You seems to have good memory on Pakistan but very weak on Indian horrific crimes committed against humanity so called in the name of "largest democracy". You failed to mention that how many Kashmires have been slaughtered by Indian Terrorist. You failed to mention Pakistani bound Samjhota express train from India was bombed and burnt eveyone alive by Hindu terrorist in India. The list goes on. But you seems to have taken a side here. Who killed Lebanon President Harreri. Rember it was CIA/MOSSAD who jumped to this conclusion - Syria. But it is much more deeper then that. It is easy to blame taliban or Pakistan. You think RAW/MOSSAD/CIA are sucking lolly pops. Anyone can easily pay $50-100K and creat a monster who can blow himself up in any place of your choice. There was "blood diamond" in Siera Leon and now we have "bloody war" exploited by India, US and the west. It is a zero sum game/war. Pakistan has learned to live by fear every day- on the other hand Indians are sh*tting in th pants.
Dear Author,
Good to guess, that you are in the payroll of Pakistani establishment. But remember one thing, time is not so long before, you and your kind of ideas that sing praises to a rogue and malicious country would take you to your knees. Keep advocating for them, and also use your influence, to get them more visas to your countries. If you can work for it, in near future, we see you and your would country would be taken to the knees when they set rules and blew of bombs in your back yard. Good luck. Let truth prevails, not your kind of lobbyists.
Ha! Ha! Aman, thank you for making the case of why Pakistan must arm itself against Indian agression.
I'm afraid Mr. Davnie has got it wrong. To support my view, let me add couple of links to couple of recent publications on NPR and Wall Street Journal by eminent scholars of the South Asian region.
1) Link to NPR coverage by Steve Coll: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/10/pakistan_afghanistan_india_ste.html
2) Link to an article by Christine Fair:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574470004052709162.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Go to youtube and watch what Pakistanis did to Bangladeshis during the war of liberation. Just check your local news papers and understand how much Pakistan is controlled by their governement.
Pakistan can not even govern their own country and they have no democracy and their rulers (Musharaf) sold their country men to CIA and now they allow their country to be bombed by US drones. It is not a sovereign country.
Forget about Kashmir. Save what you have from your own terrorist reigious begots.
Your own leaders run away from Pakistan and hide in London or US. They come here and give sanctimonious sermons to Americans shamelessly (Musharaf was on NPR the other day). If they return they are slaughtered like pigs on the street.
Every terrorist attack in the world leads to a Pakistani. You have become the most hated country in the world, "the cesspool of the world"
GAANDUSTAN = India
qWBN4t Wow, great blog article.Really looking forward to read more.
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