Updraft Category Archive: Winter/spring 2011

"Maydream" continues: More records; Showers increase; 3rd earliest ice out

Posted at 8:30 AM on March 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

13 new temperatures records (lows & highs) in the past 9 days at MSP Airport, St. Cloud & Eau Claire

7 high temperature records in the past 9 days

6 new record warm minimums in the past week

Earliest 70s in 12 years last week

Earliest 80 on record Saturday in the metro

Ice out on most smaller metro lakes including Calhoun, Harriet & Phalen Sunday

3rd earliest ice out on 'Tonka likely today or tomorrow

Shower & T-Storm chances increase today, especially tonight

Spring begins at 12:14am Tuesday

An "ice free" Lake Harriet Sunday

Unprecedented string of March records:

"Expect the unprecedented" is the new phrase when it comes to climate changes in Minnesota. We're breakin' stuff in the weather lab again today, with more records on the way. The warm weather hits just keep on comin' this March.

Ice out: 3rd earliest on record at Tonka today?

Ice went out on many metro area lakes Sunday including:

Calhoun
Harriet
Nokomis
Phalen
Grevais
Keller

Tonka was still clinging to a stubborn broken sheet of ice last night, but it looks like it will go fast today or tomorrow.

Tonka clings to ice at sunset Sunday

Bug Island on Lake Minnetonka mixes with open water patches Sunday evening.

If ice out is recoded on Tonka today or tomorrow (March 19th or 20th) it will be the 3rd earliest on record according to the Freshwater Society.

Shower chances increase through tonight:

If the weekend felt like June & July, it will feel more like May today...with chances for April showers growing through tonight. The rain will increase in coverage and intensity tonight, with chances for local downpours as the system moves north into Minnesota.

Coverage looks spotty, but some lucky areas could pick up .30" to .50"+ by early Tuesday. A second wave of showers may move in Tuesday night.

There is a slight risk for severe weather, primarily south of Minnesota.

The rest of the week looks mild for March...more like April with 60s hangin' in there.

Enjoy!

PH

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Ice going fast; More records ahead; A shot at 80?

Posted at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Most lakes ice free now in southern Minnesota south of the metro

70s return Friday through Sunday at least

80 degrees possible in southern MN and the metro through Sunday

More records likely next 3 days

Going, going...gone:

Numerous lakes are now ice free in southern Minnesota.

Here's a great resource from the MN Climate Working Group and the MN DNR to track the ice out dates this spring.

Back to the 70s:

March is the new May...but it, might actually feel like June around here this weekend.

The 70s are back Friday though Sunday in southern Minnesota, and a shot at 80 is not out of the question.

Temps will soar into the 60s in the north this weekend...with a rare March 70 possible.

Several records are in jeopardy the next few days. If we hit 70 4 more times this month in the Twin Cities it will tie 1910 for the most 70 degree temps ever recorded in March.

Drought persists: Lake levels low

The models are hinting at rain next week, let's hope so.

The drought is still going strong in much of Minnesota.

Lake Minnetonka is running a good 2-3 feet below average and where it was last spring.

Docks on Minnetonka look like a 7 year old kid who outgrew a pair of pants. Long skinny legs sticking out well above the water level.

I'll enjoy the 70s...and pray for rain!

PH

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March Madness: Earliest 70 degrees in 12 years; Record soil temps?

Posted at 8:39 AM on March 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

+9 degrees - March temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport

10th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota

73 degrees record high Wednesday at MSP

Earliest 70 degree temps in 12 years in the metro

4th earliest 70 degree temp ever on record for the metro

53 degrees soil temp at 6" depth near Albert Lea... on March 15th

70s return Friday through Sunday

80 possible in the metro and southern Minnesota by Sunday?

Rain may soak in next week

Folks enjoy 70s and fading ice at Lake Harriet Wednesday.

"March used to be a great month for keeping your favorite beverage on the porch or outside on the deck. This year it's taking up space in the fridge."

Paul Huttner to Cathy Wurzer on Morning Edition this morning at 7:48 am

"Freakishly Warm" March continues:

Any way you slice it this is just plain weird.

Something happened last summer, some switch was thrown, and the atmosphere hasn't been the same since.

We're on a weather "hot streak" so to speak, and it shows no signs of letting up.

Warmest fall on record? Yep.

Winter in Minnesota? Nope.

Certainly the other show will drop in March? Not gonna happen.

Why is this happening?

I wish I knew for sure. The only discernable thing that changed is La Nina faded away last summer. That may have been what launched us from a cool wet start to 2011 headlong into a warm "droughty" fall and winter.

It's almost as if La Nina was holding back some overarching force that wanted to heat up Minnesota and the USA. Now that La Nina is gone...there's no stopping the warm up.

We've talked about the Arctic Oscillation staying strongly in the "positive phase" this winter. That's kept us warm...but why? And what's driving what? These so called "atmospheric teleconnections" are hard to pin down. What comes first and what drives what? It's a little bit chicken and egg.

This March, lakes in Minnesota are screaming like the Wicked Witch of the West.
"Im Mellllltinnnnngg."

Is it climate change gone wild? Maybe.

It's not just a little warmer than average either. We're not running 1 or 2 degrees above average...we're running 7.3 degrees above average for the least 6 months!

Temps at MSP Airport vs. average:

October +6.4 degrees (11th warmest)
November +5.5 degrees (9th warmest)
December +8.1 degrees (13th warmest)
January +7.7 degrees (8th warmest)
February +6.9 degrees (12th warmest)
March (so far) +9.0 degrees
(and on pace for warmest March on record?)

It's as if we've moved to Kansas City folks, where the average annual temp is about 8 degrees warmer than the Twin Cities. This truly was a "Kansas City Winter."

I've never seen a stretch of weather this far out of whack in Minnesota. I wish I had a nice neat answer as to why this is happening. I don't.

Record March soil temps?

We shouldn't even be talking about "soil temps" on the "Ides of March." We should be talking about frost depth and snow cover.

But this March 15th the frost is already out of the ground in southern Minnesota and going fast in the metro. Check out these remarkable (and record?) soil temps at 6" depth.

Hutchinson 41 degrees
Mankato 45 degrees
Lamberton 48 degrees
Albert Lea 53 degrees

Our chances for March rain will increase next Monday & Tuesday. At least it will soak in.

So what next?

As Minnesotans we're conditioned for the "other shoe to drop" when we get unseasonably mild weather. "We're going to pay for this" right? "Things will always even out?"

Not necessarily.

Temps look to run 20 to 30 degrees above average for most of the rest of March. There are signs of a cool down to near average around March 28th, but that's it.

We may even hit 80 this weekend (best chance on Sunday) in the metro. If we do it will be the earliest 80 degree temp on record in the metro. (The Twin Cities hit 83 on March 23, 1910.)

Our weather keeps getting weirder. Hang on; it's going to be a wild ride.

PH

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1st 70s of 2012; Records shattered; More ice out reports; 80 by Sunday?

Posted at 6:09 PM on March 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

73 degrees new record high at MSP Airport Wednesday

1st 70s of 2012 in the metro Wednesday

Ice out confirmed at several southern Minnesota lakes

String of 70s ahead for St. Patty's Day weekend

80 degrees possible in the metro by Sunday?

Slightly Humid? Dew points in the 60s this weekend?

Shower & T-Storm chances early next week

Instant June:

This is getting just crazy.

The first 70s of 2012 invaded southern Minnesota Wednesday.

The record high of 73 degrees in the metro is more typical for June 1st than March 14th. The 73 degree high blasts the old record of 64 out of the water.

Eau Claire hit 76 degrees, also a new record.

Chicago hit 81 Wednesday!

Just the beginning:

Wednesday's warmth is not a 1 day affair. The March "heat wave" kicks into high gear on Friday, and will last through the weekend. In fact more records may fall Friday and Sunday, when temps should again soar into the 70s.

If everything falls just right, the combination of warm air, southerly breezes and sunshine may boost temps to 80 degrees in southern Minnesota and the metro either Friday or Sunday!

More lakes ice free:

New reports of ice free lakes are streaming into the weather lab via the MN DNR.

A few are listed beow. You can find the location and more lake data by using this map from the MN DNR.

Lake name: Smith
DNR lake number: 51002700
This year's ice out date: Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Lake name: Loon
DNR lake number: 81001500
This year's ice out date: Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Median ice out date: March 29
Earliest ice out date: Thursday, March 24, 1994
Latest ice out date: Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Period of record: 1994 to 2011

Lake name: Albert Lea
DNR lake number: 24001400
This year's ice out date: Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Median ice out date: March 31
Earliest ice out date: Sunday, March 05, 2000
Latest ice out date: Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Period of record: 1991 to 2011

The ice is going fast and increasing winds this weekend will take out many lakes, even in the metro.

PH

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Instant June: Record highs today; Tracking ice out

Posted at 9:07 AM on March 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Ice out, Winter/spring 2011

49 degrees record "high minimum" at MSP Airport this morning

40 degrees - average high in the metro for today, March 14th

64 degrees - (soon to be previous) record high for today March 14th

75 degrees forecast high today in the metro

June 3rd date when average high is 75 in the metro

Ice out on Lakes Mendota & Monona in Madison, WI

Ice out already on some southern Minnesota lakes?

Ice out this weekend on some metro lakes like Calhoun & Harriet?

March crocus blooming in Minneapolis Tuesday.
(Photo by MPR colleague Bill Endersen)

Instant June: Record highs in the 70s today!

Get ready for instant June.

Bright sun and warm breezes should boost temps into the 60s and even 70s in southern Minnesota including the metro today and later this week.

The mild air mass is nearly 3 months ahead of schedule. Highs in the 70s are average for early June, not mid March.

We've already set record "high minimum" temps this morning, and the record high of 64 at MSP Airport should be history by early PM.

A weak cool front will shift winds into the northwest today, and may temper the soaring temps a little later this afternoon.

More records this week?

We average 1 day of 70 degree warmth in March, and the record is 5 days set in 1910. Our mini cool front will be a brief speed bump in temp rises, and temps should return to the 70s by Friday.

Ice out: Lakes out 2-3 weeks early this year

Surface reports and satellite shots show ice out is moving north fast this year. Mendota and Monona, the big lakes bracketing Madison, Wisconsin went out in the past 3 days on March 11th & 12th.

Satellite shots indicate some southern Minnesota lakes are now ice free. Lakes are quickly losing ice as close as far north as Lakeville.

I took a good look at the ice on Carson's Bay on Lake Minnetonka near the weather lab...and the ice is turning "black." This is a sigh that "candles" are forming...and it won't be long until the combination of sunlight, melt water and wind this weekend have a good go at metro lakes.

I expect at this point that smaller metro lakes like Calhoun and Harriet, Nokomis may go out by this weekend.

With more 70s on the way and winds kicking up this weekend It would not shock me to see Waconia and Tonka go out this weekend, or at least be open in many areas.

The last time the ice went out on 'Tonka in March was 12 years ago...March 18th, 2000.

Here are some great resources to track ice out on Minnesota lakes this year.

-MN Climate Working Group ice page

-Historical MN ice out dates

And by the way, I'll be hosting the 2nd annual "Ice-Out/Loon-In" event for the Freshwater Society again this year. The event is Thursday April 12th at the Lafayette Club on Lake Minnetonka.

Please come and support an organization that does plenty to keep our Minnesota lakes and rivers clean and healthy.

Hope to see you there!

PH

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More records; Earliest "Ice Out" in 12 years? 80 in MN Wednesday?!

Posted at 4:34 PM on March 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Ice out, Winter/spring 2011

67 degrees another record high at MSP Tuesday!

Ice free lakes near Iowa border on NASA MODIS Terra image Tuesday

12 years last March "ice out" on Lake Minnetonka (March 18, 2000)

Arpil 14 Ice out on Minnetonka declared last year (at 5:14am)

70s a "sure thing" Wednesday in southern Minnesota

80 degrees possible Wednesday PM in southern Minnesota!

Ice free lakes already in southern Minnesota?

There are signs that some lakes near the Iowa border are ice free as of Tuesday afternoon. Take a look at NASA's MODIS Terra image below.

UW NASA MODIS Terra image shows possibly "ice free" lakes near the Iowa border Tuesday!

I expect confirmation on ice out in some southern Minnesota lakes in the next day or so. If true, it would be a full 2 weeks ahead of schedule. The average ice out date for lakes near the Iowa border is about April 1st.

Records fall Wednesday: A shot at 80 in southern MN?

Forget our 1st 70, that's a lock Wednesday. It looks like we have a real shot at seeing the first 80 of 2011 in southern Minnesota Wednesday!

If you look at forecast 850mb temps (5,000 feet above ground) Wednesday afternoon you could easily get temps in the 80s later in spring. It looks like we might get enough sun to mix down some warmer air and send temps soaring into the lower 80s in southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon!

Right now I'd say the Twin Cities could top out as high as 77 Wednesday afternoon...and 80 is not out of the question!

Enjoy!

PH

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Foggy & soggy Monday; "May-like" (record?) March resumes Tuesday

Posted at 8:26 AM on March 12, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Rain at nearly all Minnesota reporting sites Monday morning- remarkable for March

.20" at many locations so far

.25" to .50" totals in much of Minnesota today

Foggy & soggy visibilities 1/4 mile in fog at Alex, & St. Cloud this morning

Scattered showers taper off linger today, ending tonight

AM fog possible again Tuesday

66 record highs at MSP Saturday & Sunday

61 record high at International Falls & Ely Sunday!

Sunny & unseasonably mild weather returns Tuesday PM - Friday!

Record warmth possible again this week

1st 70 degree temps possible by Wednesday, and again Friday

Warmest March on record? A distinct possibility

Rainy Days & Mondays:

And throw in some fog and the time change and you've got a murky Monday for sure.

Low pressure spinning over southern Minnesota will trigger showers most of the day. There are some breaks in the rain, and the system will pull out later today and tonight.

Most areas will see between .25" and .50" by the time all is said and done tonight.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

All Rain!

All Minnesota reporting sites with precip are reporting rain today. That's remarkable for a weather system on March 12th. In most years we would expect snow at most sites on this date. But this is clearly not "most years."

"May-tastic" run resumes Tuesday: More records this week?

It's hard to fathom just how out of whack this warm winter into spring into instant May is this year.

We've literally jumped ahead two months into typical conditions for early May!

After some fog Tuesday morning the sun should return, and so will record challenging warmth.

Here's a look at record highs for the rest of the week.

Day Forecast Record

Tuesday 66 69
Wednesday 72 64
Thursday 66 69
Friday 70 71
St. Patty's Day 72 76

Get ready to enjoy another run of May in March!

Warmest March on record?

The GFS and European ECMWF models both crank out temps a good +2- to +25 degrees vs. average for most of the nest two weeks. Other than a brief cooler spell around March 24th, it looks like we'll reach April & May temp levels this month.

We're already running +5.6 degrees at MSP this month. If you add in the next two weeks, we could easily be somewhere between 44 and 47 degrees for the overall average temp by the end of March.

The warmest March on record on the metro was 44.9 degrees set in 1910.

At this point I'd say we have a 50/50 shot at breaking that, and a 90% shot at having a "top 5" warmest March on record.

PH

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Northern Lights possible overnight: A shot at 60 by Saturday!

Posted at 5:01 PM on March 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter/spring 2011

Solar Storm Update:

Well if you think forecasting weather on Earth is tough, try predicting space weather and auroras!

Here's an update from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center: (How do I get a job there?)

2012-03-08 22:11 UTC Geomagnetic Storm in Progress, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

"The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8). So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming. As the event progresses, that field will continue to change. Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, but are starting to show the first signs of decay. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant."

Bottom Line? There is still the possibility of auroras tonight over Minnesota skies. But you're going to have to battle clouds again early tonight.

There are no guarantees, but the best bet is to look north in a dark sky away from city lights if possible. If it happens it could last a few minutes, or a few hours. It all depends on the nature and duration of the storm.

Here's a video update from NOAA: Joe Kunches with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center further explains this week's Solar Storm.

So what is spaceweather all about anyway? It's truly amazing how far we've come in monitoring and understanding solar storms in the past decade.

Robert Rutledge, a forecaster at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, discusses how NOAA monitors space weather events, models their impact on Earth, and works with commercial sectors to protect lives and property.

More from NOAA:

Strong Solar Storm Impacting Earth

Solar Storm

A solar flare erupted from the sun on March 6, 2012. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center continues to monitor and forecast this solar event along with potential impacts to satellites, power grids and communication and navigation systems.

Event Impacts:

"Power Grid: Weak power grid fluctuations are possible.

Aurora (Northern Lights): The Aurora Forecast from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center depicts how far away viewers on the ground could see the Aurora."

And from NOAA's Space Weather Center Facebook page:

"A lot of details to say, there is a strong field in the cloud that has passed, but it has been opposite of what would be needed to cause strong storming. Stay tuned, this CME is not done and we may yet get the magnetic field needed to cause higher levels of geomagnetic storming."

Warming trend kicks in Friday & Saturday!

It will start to feel a bit more like spring by Friday afternoon. By Saturday, you may be shedding layers and jumping on the bike!

Winds shift into the south Friday, and a full blown onslaught of mild air pushes in again by Saturday.

Temps will push 40 in southern Minnesota Friday afternoon...and may hit 60 on Saturday. Looking at the 850mb temps (5,000 feet up) Saturday leads me to believe we have a real shot at 60 again for the metro fr the second time this week!

Sunday Showers?

A system pulling up from the south should spread rain showers into Minnesota Sunday. Best timing right now looks like late afternoon and evening.

Warmest March 6th in 12 years:

If you thought Tuesday was warm in Minnesota...you're right. Check out the details from my MPR colleague and UM Climate Guru Dr. Mark Seeley in his excellent weekly Weather Talk blog post.

Topic: Warm March 6th

"March 6th was the warmest statewide in 12 years. Many observers reported
daytime temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Several locations
reached the 50s and 60s F. Among the warmest spots in the state were:
68 F at Minneota; 67 F at Preston; 66 F at Winona; 65 F at Albert Lea;
64 F at Auston, Caledonia, and La Crescent; 63 F at Rochester, Amboy,
Winnebago, and Fairmont; 62 F at Pipestone; and 60 F at MSP.

In addition the warm, moist southerly winds brought record setting dewpoints
for the Twin Cities, reaching 42 degrees F on March 6th and 45 degrees F
on March 7th, before cooler and drier air settled in. The warm air mass
brought plenty of fog to places as well."

Adios La Nina:

From CPC's Montly ENSO Discussion released Thursday:

"A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to return during March-May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 6). The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012."

Stay tuned!

PH

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Update: Europe Auroras; 60 again Saturday? Severe outbreak in March?

Posted at 9:17 AM on March 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter/spring 2011

5am Earth bound CME struck Earth according to spaceweather.com

No word on intensity of Earth impacts yet

Auroras (Northern Lights) in Europe, still possible tonight in Minnesota

Snowy AM dusting & windy today!

Warm front late Friday

60 degrees possible again by Saturday?

Rain showers Sunday?

70 degrees possible late next week?

Severe outbreak possible in Minnesota around March 21st?

Solar storm in progress: Possible auroras tonight?

According to spaceweather.com the CME struck Earth around 5am Minnesota time.

There are reports of aruoras in Europe.

Timo Veijalainen Mar. 7, 2012 Sodankylä, Finland

Details:

"Last night auroras were displaying above arctic circle. There were lots of clouds during the night, but driving to east was answer to our problem. Near midnight auroras started to dance. It didnt last long, but luckily i got few images."

The next 12+ hours should tell the tale about any possible impacts. If northern lights explode, they might still favor Scandinavia and Russia which lie on the "nighttime" side of the earth.

If an aurora storm develops it may last long enough for us to see it in Minnesota tonight. The good news is skies should be mostly clear in most of Minnesota tonight. If the show goes off, we may just see it!

Blustery March Thursday!

Hang onto your hats and small pets today! A gusty west wind will peak this afternoon and tonight at speed between 20 and 40 mph in parts of Minnesota.

It will feel more like winter than spring today as temps hold in the 20s north and 30s south.

In case you're wondering, there's still plenty of snow cover up north. Check out the photo from weather observer Gordon Hommes taken last weekend after another 10" snow blitz near Two Harbors, MN.

"Hi Paul, Here are some photos from the lake-effect snowstorm that affected parts of the North Shore this weekend. These were taken Sunday morning at my house inland from Two Harbors. By that time we had received 10.5 inches of light, fluffy snow, and the snow depth was up to 31 inches.

Gordon Hommes
Two Harbors 7NW"

Yep, that's 31" of snow on the ground! This is great news for North Shore rivers like the Knife River which has been running low. The extra snow melt should get rivers running nicely along the North Shore in the next two weeks.

60 by Saturday?

The next surge of warm air is already aiming at Minnesota for this weekend. A warm southwest wind should boost temps again by Saturday. With less snow cover and plenty of sun, temps should again make a run at 60 in the metro and southern Minnesota Saturday!

Rainy Sunday?

There are signs that a low pressure system will spin up from the south by Sunday. This should trigger some rain...yes rain showers Sunday in Minnesota.

60s and even 70s next week?

The overall upper air pattern remains favorable for early season warmth next week. 50s and 60s should rule the early week, and southern Minnesota and even the metro may bask in 60s to even 70 degrees by next Thursday & Friday!

First possible severe outbreak in sight?

One low pressure system may bring some showers to Minnesota next weekend for St. Patty's Day.

It's early to say for sure, but the GFS is hinting for several runs now that a stronger, May-like storm may wind up and aim for Minnesota around March 21st.

If a strong system like the one advertised in this morning's GFS run tracks through western Minnesota, there could be thunderstorms, and potentially some severe weather warnings on or around March 21st.

It's pretty remarkable and somewhat alarming to see our weather pattern jump from March to May in just a few days. But it seems anything goes in Minnesota weather lately.

"Expect the unprecedented."

Stay tuned!

PH

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60 degrees! Warmest since November 12th; 60s return this weekend?

Posted at 5:28 PM on March 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

60 degrees high temp in the metro Tuesday!

+24 degrees vs. average in the metro Tuesday

Warmest since November 12th (64degrees)

64 degrees in Owatonna

50 in International Falls!

30s along the North Shore (Winds off Lake Superior)

Cool front Wednesday back to the 30s & low 40s

60s this weekend in the metro?

Spring Fever, Minnesota style:

I remember these first warm days in March so well as a kid growing up in Minnesota. After the long, grueling winters of the 70s it was like a celebration stepping off the school bus into new lakes and mini rivers on every corner. It meant spring was in the air, and soon we'd turn the corner from a white landscape to a sea of green grass and bright blue skies.

Tuesday felt like spring in Minnesota. There was no holding back the smiles and extra bouncy steps as Minnesotans of all shapes and sizes splashed through puddles and strolled the streets.

Big temp contrast:

Check out the "Wundermap" below and you can see the huge temperatures contrast spanning Minnesota Tuesday. It hit 70 in Sioux Falls near the southwest corner of Minnesota. Meanwhile an east wind off a frigid Lake Superior and deep snow pack stalled temps in the 30s along the North Shore!

(click images to enlarge)

Cooler front Wednesday: A few showers?

A "cool" front will slide in from the north Wednesday. The front may trigger a few rain and snow showers, and will push temps back a little closer to reality for early March.

Highs in the 30s and low 40s return for mid-week.

Spring Fever Part II this weekend?

Temps soared past model guidance Tuesday. The sheer volume and intenisty of the warm air gushing north was underestiamted by the forecast models.

Yet another push of warm air is headed for Minnesota this weekend. In what could be "Spring Fever; The Sequel" ... warm southerly breezes will again blow by Saturday.

This time the snow cover should be almost gone in most of southern Minnesota, and there will be little to stop temps from soaring.

Temps should be into the 50s again Saturday, and the surge of warm air should peak Sunday afternoon as temps may shoot into the 60s in the Twin Cities and all of southern Minnesota!

March Outlook: Early Spring!

Other than a few brief cool downs it looks like spring is here to stay this year...in March!

The medium range maps hint at many days in the 50s and 60s ahead this month, and little if any snow.

In fact it looks like rain is more likely this month. And some of it could be heavy...with the season's first T-Storms arriving toward mid month.

Enjoy...and stay tuned!

PH

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Spring fever! "Meltmageddon" features 50s today south; 40s north;

Posted at 8:30 AM on March 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Phenology, Winter/spring 2011

60 possible in southern Minnesota today!

50s likely today in metro!

69 = record high for the Twin Cities today (we won't get there)

40s for Brainerd, Duluth, Fargo & International Falls

2" snow depth this morning at MSP Airport

16" snow depth at Duluth!

"Meltmageddon!"

Get ready for a "windshield washer warning" today. There will be a growing number of puddles in Minnesota today. Some may be as big as houses by late afternoon.

Our major warm up is here, the only question is how warm will it get?

The answer lies mostly in how much snow is on the ground where you live.

Snow cover plays a huge role in temperatures this time of year. As several factors favor quick warm ups....snow cover is the one factor that can thwart big temp rises.

As warm air blows in from the south, the snow cover acts to cool the air it comes into contact with. We call this "air mass modification."

You can feel that effect when you pull an ice tray out of the freezer, and hold your hand just over the top of it. Feel the cold? So does the atmosphere.

If not for snow, we could hit 60 today. A good strong south wind blowing over bare ground in Iowa should help boost temps into the lower 50s in southern Minnesota. The deepest snowpack of the season should keep temps in the 40s up north.

Fog tonight?

The snow that melts today should release additional moisture into the lower atmosphere. That could mean some thick fog as winds die down tonight.

Fire danger south!

One thing we can thank our new snow cover for is reduced fire danger in Minnesota....for now.

To the south, it's still bone dry in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa. red Flag warnings are flying today for high fire danger.

The combination of dry bare ground, warm temps, low humidity and high winds will create explosive fire growth conditions today to our south.

Project Budburst?

Okay so maybe it's too early to start talking about buds bursting in Minnesota just yet. But it wont be long before you se those crocus bloom and daffodil shoots on the sunny side of your house!

Here's a great way to get involved in reporting some of your backyard "phenology." It's called "Project Budburst"

You can register and become part of a network of amateur phenologists who reports bloom times, leaf out, fall color changes etc. into a national database.

The data from "budburst" has already provided some interesting trends.

For example in the Chicago area, many spring plants are blooming days or weeks earlier than they did just decades ago.

Compared to the 1955-1994 period in Chicago, here are some bloom times in the last 5 years according to "Budburst" data:

Forsythia blooming 24 days earlier

Lilacs blooming 17 days earlier

You can hear more about shifting spring bloom times here from Chicago Public Radio.

You can check out Project Budburst here!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

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Taste of April! 50s & 60s ahead; Signs of an early (and thundery?) spring

Posted at 4:55 PM on March 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

50s in southern Minnesota and probably the metro Tuesday!

8 days at or above 50 degrees in the next 2 weeks?

2.96" GFS forecast precip next 16 days....all rain?

38 degrees average high for MSP Airport next weekend

60 degrees possible in southern MN Saturday?

67 degrees GFS forecast high for March 16th (a week from Friday)

+20 degrees vs. average next two weeks?

Warm spring outlook for Minnesota from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Major League Warm Front!

Warm air is gushing into Minnesota on gusty south winds as we speak.

Temps pushed 70 degrees in western Nebraska Monday, with 60s in the Dakotas. Bank thermometers flashed 65 in Rapid City Monday afternoon!

The early (meteorological) spring warmth peak Tuesday over Minnesota. Temps should push 50+ degrees in most of southern Minnesota, with widespread 40s in the north.

A cool front brings us closer to reality Wednesday & Thursday...but not for long.

Southerly winds will blow again by Friday, and temps will begin to soar a good 15 degrees above seasonal values again.

"Meltmageddon"

Southerly winds, sunshine and warm temps are gong to do number on snow cover this week. One surprising factor in how quickly we lose snow cover is overnight temperatures.

Warm days in the 40s and 50s and stronger March sun eat a lot of snow during the day. But when overnight lows can stay near and above freezing, the sheer number of hours of snowmelt starts to add up.

There's an "official" 2" of snow on the ground at MSP Airport Monday. But here at the weather lab in the west metro it's more like 4" to 5" "in the woods." The north metro is still sporting 6"+ in some areas.

It may take a few days but it looks like most of the snow in metro and southern Minnesota will be history by Friday afternoon.

Saturday Temp Surge?

With most of the snow gone, strong sun and warm south winds may turbo boost temps Saturday.

50 looks like a lock again by Saturday afternoon, and I wouldn't be shocked to see some 60 degrees temps south of (and maybe in) the metro Saturday.

Sunday: "April Showers" in March?

The latest GFS is spinning up an unseasonably mild low pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico and sending it north toward Minnesota Sunday.

Most years we'd be sounding early alarm bells about another possible "Tournament weekend Snowpacolypse"...but not this year. The models are solidly indicating it will be warm enough for all rain so far with this one....not even close.

Normally we'd be looking for temps at around 5,000 feet up (850mb) to be near 0C and tracing the infamous "rain/snow line." Sunday's 850mb temps look to run between +5C and +8C, and that means all rain.

Sunday GFS numbers above: Box shows rain totals. Oval shows Celsius temps at 850mb (around 5,000 feet)

NOAA's CPC: Warm March & warm spring?

The newest outlooks from NOAA's CPC favor much above temps for Minnesota the rest of March...and probably a warmer than average spring through May!

Looking at the maps I tend to agree. I think we'll see an abundance of "green shoots" in March this year. Is it possible to see ice free lakes in southern Minnesota and lawns greening up by the end of March? Daffodils in March? I wouldn't rule it out this crazy weather year.

Speaking of ice free lakes...here's a great post from the MN Climate Working Group on just how lake ice melts this time of year.

How Lake Ice Melts

"1.In the late fall, the lake loses heat to the atmosphere, and then on a day or night when the wind is not blowing, ice forms. The ice gets thicker as long as the lake can continue to lose heat.

6.The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!"

Wet & thundery too?

There are also signs our wet pattern may continue for the next few weeks. This could mean some early bouts of spring thunderstorms...and possibly even some (gulp) severe weather... in March!

Stay tuned!

PH

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Spring Fever Ahead! 50s this week; "Easiest" winter in 25 years?

Posted at 9:04 AM on March 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Warm front pushes into Minnesota today!

Light snowy coating with warm front today

Sun returns late PM

Taste of Spring by Tuesday & again next weekend!

53+ degrees forecast high on the metro Tuesday

April 5th date when our average high reaches 52 degrees

2" to 8" of snow now on the ground in southern Minnesota
(most will be gone by Friday PM)

31" current snow depth near two Harbors, MN!

129 tornadoes last weekend

274 tornadoes so far this year in USA
(well ahead of last year's pace of 164 through March)

4th warmest winter on record for the Twin Cities

"Easiest" winter in 23 years looking at combined temp & snowfall data

Warm Front Ahead!

Hope you enjoyed the cold start of 16 in the metro and -15 in Ely and Cook, this may be the coldest morning we'll see in Minnesota the rest of this season!

Today may have the look and feel of winter for a while as a warm front pushes in on increasingly blustery winds, but warm air is gushing toward Minnesota for Tuesday. As the warm air pushes in, the "warm advection" will trigger a band of clouds and light snow. A snowy coating will look like winter through Midday today...but will give way to warmer temps by late afternoon as the narrow frontal zone pushes through.

Instant Spring: 50s Tuesday?

Unseasonably mild spring like air gushes into Minnesota Tuesday. The combination of an April like air mass and southerly winds should overcome our snow cover and boost temps to the 50s in southern Minnesota, and probably the metro.

A cold front will slide through Wednesday and temper the warm up with temps peaking near 40 Wednesday and Thursday. But southerly winds will return, and with little or no snow cover in southern Minnesota by Friday PM temps will again soar next weekend.

Look for highs in the 50s again by Saturday.

Yes, there are signs that next week we could see some 60 degree temps in southern Minnesota...and a stray 70 is not out of the question somewhere in southern Minnesota next week!

We'll likely see the first daffodil shoots poking out of the ground in southern Minnesota next week!

Not so fast up north!

It finally looks like winter in "Minnesnowda" today, even if it's only for a few days.

The past two weeks have brought as much as 2 feet of snow to parts of northern Minnesota, a first for this winter.

Gordon Hommes, an NWS weather observer near Two Harbors tells me he's got a full 31" of snow on the ground! That's great news for North Shore Rivers like the Knife River this spring. All that snow will melt, and the runoff will recharge the rivers up north in the next month.

Here are some snowfall totals in Minnesota the past two weeks, since March 19th.

Twin Cities Airport 6.8"
North Metro 14-16"
St. Cloud 11.1"
International Falls 19.6"
Duluth 30.9"

Most of Minnesota has seen more snowfall in the past two weeks than we have all "winter" long!

"Easiest Winter" in 25 years for Minnesota?

This was the 4th warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) on record for the Twin Cities.

With 22.1" of snowfall this season, it's also the least snowy winter since 1986-'87 when we got just 17.4" of snowfall, the 3rd lowest winter snowfall on record.

If you combine temp and snowfall this winter, this winter was very similar to the winter of 1986-'87, which was the 7th warmest on record and the 3rd "least snowy!"

You can go all the way back to the winter of 1930-'31 to find a winter with both lower snowfall and milder temps than this year, but you would be remiss to ignore the winter of 1986-'87... 23 years ago, which was very close to what we've seen & felt in Minnesota this winter.

2012: Year of the tornado again?

There were 129 reported tornadoes in last weekend's devastating tornado outbreak.

That puts the yearly preliminary total at 274 so far according to SPC, the second most active start to a tornado season on record.

That's already well ahead of last year's pace, which turned out to be the 2nd most active tornado year on record with 1,897 tornadoes!

This looks like another active tornado season, but with a fading La Nina there is hope that the storm spawning jet stream will not remain as strong as last spring.

Minnesota had 30 tornadoes last year. Our new 30 year average is 37. Two years ago we set a record and led the nation with 113 tornadoes in Minnesota.

Enjoy the warm up this week!

PH

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Tornado toll mounts: Signs of an early spring for Minnesota?

Posted at 2:02 PM on March 3, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Saturday Update:

The incredible death and damage toll continues to mount from the Friday/Saturday tornado outbreak.

In this aerial photo, debris is strewn about, Saturday, March 3, 2012, in Marysville, Indiana, after a tornado swept through the area Friday. A string of violent storms demolished small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early season tornado outbreak killed more than 30 people, and the death toll rose as daylight broke on Saturday's search for survivors.(AP Photo/Al Behrman)

As of this update, at least 37 people have died, and over 100 tornadoes have been reported Friday (97 tornadoes) & Saturday.

The outbreak is focused on Florida Saturday and will finally ease by Sunday.

Track the latest watches & tornado reports here from SPC.

PH

**Original post at 5:29pm Friday**

Major severe weather outbreak strikes Ohio Valley & south

Dozens of tornadoes reported

Damage and injuries mount

Wintery weekend feel for Minnesota

Strong warming trend Monday & Tuesday

Major warm up staring next weekend?

Signs of an early spring for Minnesota?

Major Severe Outbreak:

Here we go again.

Another major early spring severe weather outbreak is pummeling the southeast and Ohio Valley. Early video via CNN.

Dozens of tornadoes have skipped eastward from the Ohio Valley as damage and the human toll climbs. The numbers will climb as the weekend unfolds.

You can follow the outbreak and check the latest numbers here at SPC.

The fast moving front will sail off the east coast Saturday, mercifully bringing an end to the path of destruction.

Wintery weekend?

This weekend will feel more like winter than spring in Minnesota.

A cool exhaust from an eastward passing storm will keep Minnesota in mostly sub-freezing air this weekend. Daytime highs may approach the low 30s in the south, but overnight lows will be in the teens and colder.

The fresh deep snow cover over the northern 3/4 of Minnesota will keep things feeling frosty this weekend.

Warming trend starts Monday:

Winds will blow from the south starting on Monday. The milder air will funnel in, and temps should respond Monday, and especially Tuesday.

There are signs we could be as warm as 50+ degrees on Tuesday, but there are a few kinks that could thwart the rise.

1) Monday fog potential: Whenever we get southerly flow over snow pack melting can create fog. That can stop a warm up in its tracks.

We'll have to keep an eye out for potential fog Monday and Monday night that could linger and slow down daytime temp rises.

2) Snow pack: All things being equal, snow covered areas will not warm as much as bare ground. Temps may soar into the 60s southern Minnesota Tuesday on bare ground in sunshine. Temps will be cooler over snow covered areas.

How much snow the Twin Cities is able to melt Monday (we won't melt much at all this weekend) will determine how warm we get Tuesday.

One factor in favor of 50s in the metro Tuesday? The ground is mostly snow free just south of the metro, and a good strong southerly wind Tuesday may just overcome existing snow cover by mixing down warmer air from above.

Signs of an early spring this year?

After a cool down later next week, there are signs that pint to a major warming trend by next weekend, and a potential early spring in Minnesota this year.

1) The upper air pattern supports massive warming starting the weekend of March 10th-11th. With most of the snow gone by then in the metro and higher sun angle, temps could soar to into the 60s if the GFS patterns verify.

Medium range models are mush better with large scale temperature trends than with predicting individual storms. That lends more credibility to the notion of a sustained warming trend starting next weekend.

2) The overall pattern looks much warmer later in March. If the GFS is right, temps could approach 70 in southwest Minnesota the weekend of March 17th! CPC's outlooks also favor warmth for March.

March Daffodils? Early ice out?

If that happens, expect early blooms and some of the earliest "ice out" dates on Minnesota lakes in recent years.

The average long term date for ice out on Lake Minnetonka is April 13th.

At this point, I'd put my money on about Saturday March 17th, 3:45pm.

But that's just a guess.

Have a great weekend!

PH

Temps trend up; a shot at 70? "Backwards" New Zealand tornado

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Tornadoes, Winter/spring 2011

Who knew 59 degrees could feel so good?

The mercury struggled to 59 in the metro on Tuesday under brilliant sunny skies. That's still 6 degrees below the average for May 3rd, which is now 65. Looking at the smiling faces and the number of us soaking up the much needed sunshine, you would have thought it was 75.

Temps surge Tuesday. (Click images to enlarge)

Our sunny weather winning streak continues today. Temps will recover to near "normal" early May levels this afternoon. Those stunted hostas will get a boost today with temps in the mid 60s. It should be a great evening for outdoor baseball or that evening stroll around Lake Calhoun.

Next rain tonight:

An "open wave" riding the jet stream will bring our next shot of rain overnight into early Thursday. Look for rain showers in western Minnesota this evening, spreading into the metro by around midnight.

Rainfall totals appear to be between .25" to .50" for most areas as the system sails through. "Open waves" tend to keep moving through the atmosphere and not stall over Minnesota. Look for rain to end from west to east early Thursday. It looks like the rain could end by noon, and the sun could return Thursday PM!

Fab Friday?

Another high pressure cell will glide overhead Friday. This means more sunshine, and temps could respond again into the upper 60s as spring kicks into high gear.

Temps trending upward next several days!

Friday just may be the nicest day in a long time around these parts.

Mixed weather bag this weekend?

Is it too early to look ahead to the weekend? Never!

To be honest, it's dicey to profess total accuracy 3-4 days out for any forecast. That may be especially true this weekend, as the weather crystal ball (and the weather maps) still look a little murky.

A couple of weak waves will slide through Minnesota under an increasing milder southwest flow aloft. This may trigger a few batches of clouds and a few showers both Saturday and Mother's Day. I also think we'll see some sunny, dry hours mixed in.

Bottom line? Look for a changeable weekend forecast, with a mix of sun and maybe a few showers. Temperatures should range from the upper 60s to possibly 70 if we get enough sun mixed in.

Unsettled next week?

The maps are looking potentially unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. A storm that looked like it may clip Minnesota Monday appears to be steering south, and that could leave us high & dry with a sunny milder day in the low 70s if it verifies.

The system may surge north a bit Tuesday & Wednesday, and the chances for rain could increase then. The models are still shifty regarding this potential weather system next week.

Stay tuned.

Omega Block ahead?

To be honest, the weather maps look chaotic in about 7-10 days. There is still a hint that we could develop what we call an "Omega Block" over the central USA later next week. If we do, that could lead to more dry weather.

Again...stay tuned.

New Zealand Tornado: Yes, they do spin the other way in the southern Hemisphere

But the damage is very real and looks the same. Check out the video & story from the New Zealand Herald.

Minnesota floods move down river:

Remember all that water in the Minnesota & Mississippi last month? Well it's moving down the Mississippi and combining with heavy rainfall to creat major flood probelms in the along the Mississippi. The raging Ohio River is feeding the problem too.

Here's the ABC Memphis video of the Army Corps of Engineers blowing the levee to save Cairo, IL. (pronounced KAY- row)

Heavy rains in excess of 7 to 10" have fallen along the Ohio and Mississippi watersheds.

We can be grateful our weather is trending for the better. For the first time in a long time we can say there are no floods, no snow, and for now no severe weather in the forecast.

It's all green grass, tulips and daffodils baby.

Enjoy!

PH

Why weather played a role in bin Laden raid; Tornado records smashed

Posted at 9:13 AM on May 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Weather history, Winter/spring 2011

We're learning that weather played a critical role in the timing (and potential success) of the dramatic raid that lead to the death of Osama bin Laden.

The mission to capture or kill bin Laden was scrubbed on Saturday night/early Sunday due to bad weather in Pakistan. A front blew through the area with high winds and there were thunderstorms in the area, forcing the military to scrub the mission Saturday night.

Take a look at hourly weather conditions at nearby Islamabad late Saturday night. As you can see wind gusted over 34 mph and thunderstorms were reported nearby for several hours Saturday night.

Hourly observations from Islamabad show why high winds and thunder scrubbed the mission Saturday night. (Click images to enlarge)

Winds also shifted direction rapidly Saturday afternoon in Islamabad.

When you combine wind shear, high winds over 30 mph and thunderstorms in the area you can see why the helicopter landing and mission was scrubbed Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Sunday Night: "Perfect weather" green lights the mission

Sometime around midnight Sunday night/ Monday morning a team of helicopters lifts off from the deserts of eastern Afghanistan and headed for Abbotabad.

The sky is clear and moonless, and the weather conditions are ideal for the pilots to drop in from above, undetected until the sound of rotors fills the sky in Abbotabad at 12:55 am local time.

Not only are skies clear, the air is calm with no wind at ground level. Haze is reported at nearby Islamabad with visibility reported at 2.5 miles. This may have been a critically beneficial factor in favor of U.S. Special Forces that night.

Hourly observation from Islamabad, Pakistan within one hour of the raid.

Visibility of just 2.5 miles meant the helicopters were invisible to the naked eye above 12,000 feet as they flew in, but visibility was good enough for the pilots to have clear sight of the compound as they dropped out of the sky from above to land in nearly perfect weather conditions.

The timing of the raid was also likely chosen by the phase of the new moon on May 3rd. The dark, moonless sky another factor working in stealthy favor of the surprise attack.

Somewhere in the U.S. Government (probably the Air Force) there are some very happy meteorologists today. They likely gave the advice to scrub on Saturday night, and the green light to go on Sunday night based on an excellent weather forecast.

The rest is history.

April 27, 2011: Biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history:

Speaking of history, we've lust lived through the biggest single tornado outbreak on record in the USA.

Tracks of rotating tornadic supercells on April 27th.

NOAA has tallied the numbers, and it turns out last week's tornadic outburst set multiple records

April 25-28, 2011, Tornado Outbreak Statistics

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 362 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274.

Is Minnesota next?

It remains to be seen whether the tornadic trends of Spring 2011 will continue and migrate north. There are still signs of a pattern change starting about May 15th that could lead to more tranquil weather in the Midwest.

In the mean time, enjoy the sun today and most of Wednesday, before our next shot of rain moves in Wednesday night.

Shot of rain Wednesday night into Thursday could be a soaker.

Overall, weather trends are finally looking more like "spring has sprung" in the Upper Midwest.

PH

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Sun returns Tuesday! Prolonged sunny & dry in 10 days?

Posted at 4:20 PM on May 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

The forecast is looking better by the day for cloud weary Minnesotans.

Let's start with Tuesday. The headline "sun returns" normally wouldn't be a big deal in early May. But after the past few days, it means a lot. The sun is out in much of western and northern Minnesota late Monday.

Sun returns in the west. Note the ice free lakes now up north including Mille Lacs, Leech & Red! (Click image to enlarge)

High pressure will build in and give us 2 badly needed mostly sunny days Tuesday & Wednesday. The next (weak) weather system will bring a chance of (light) showers late Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Let's break down the forecast this week.

Tuesday: Sun returns! Not as cold with lighter winds. A nice (early-mid) spring day. High near 58. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny & milder! High near 63. Wind SE-S 10-18 mph. Chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday: AM showers, becoming partly cloudy PM. High near 63. Wind west 5-12 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny early. High near 67. Rain possible Friday night.

Saturday: Mixed clouds & sun. High near 68.

Mother's Day: Mild with a chance of showers. High near 69.

Pattern change ahead??

I know, the models have advertised more spring like patterns before and not delivered. This one looks a little more plausible.

The GFS has been persistent in developing what meteorologist call and "Omega Block" (looks like the Greek letter Omega on the maps) starting on about May 12th, and persisting through around May 18th.

Omega Blocks are big upper air ridges that develop between two deep low pressure trofs on either side. If you're under the ridge, you usually get a prolonged period of sunny, dry, fairly mild weather in spring. Right now Minnesota is forecast (by the GFS) to be right under the high pressure ridge starting late next week.

Omega blocks often develop in transitional seasons...spring & fall. They can be a mechanism for breaking down persistent upper air patterns, and a transition to the jet stream finally (mercifully) lifting back north into Canada where it belongs this time of year.

If the pattern verifies late next week, we could see a prolonged period of sunny, dry and milder (70s?) weather lasting at least a week. That would be just what the doctor ordered to jump start our delayed spring this year.

Stay tuned!

Dreary April:

If you're feeling a little blue, it's probably because the skies are gray.

The weather stats at MSP for April show it was an unusually gray month.

April 2011 saw only 2 totally sunny days in the metro and most of Minnesota. 28 days were either cloudy or partly cloudy. 20 of 30 days in April featured measureable (miserable?) precip too.

Here's the breakdown from Twin Cities NWS monthly climate (F-6) data.

During a typical (average) April we see about 58% of possible sunshine. This year, April sunshine at MSP Airport was about 27.4%! That's around half of the sun we would expect to see on average!

No wonder so may of us are feeling a little blue.

Shortage of 70s:

We've only reached 70 once (April 10th 76 degrees) in the metro so far in 2011! Last year we hit 70 a total of 7 times by this date. Ouch.

I remember always mowing my lawn at least once in April in Minnesota. This year, the mower is still patiently sitting under the tarp in on May 2nd.

Hang in there...brighter days are ahead!

PH

Models: Major warm up ahead?

Posted at 9:00 AM on April 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Snow, Winter/spring 2011

My MPR News colleague Cathy Wurzer may have summed up the hopes of winter weary Minnesotans in two words this morning.

When I cautioned that I hate to even "stick my toe in the water" on a long range forecast that may include a major warm up she immediately replied...."Go ahead!"

Let's start with the extended and work backwards today.

Pattern Change: Major warm up in sight?

I hate to even go out on this weather limb, but the overnight GFS run (yes, the same unreliable model of "wanna be" snowstorms in the past few weeks) is boldly hinting that spring is truly right around the corner.

The type of major upper air pattern change that would send spring time (or even early summertime!) temperatures gushing into Minnesota may be about to unfold starting on Mother's Day weekend & beyond.

GFS surface chart pumps warm air on strong southerly flow by May 9th.

There are a couple of reasons I am giving the model output more credibility this time.

1) The upper air pattern change portrayed by the models is sweeping and large scale.

3) We're overdue for a flip in the overall upper air pattern in across North America.

So what's it all mean?

Right now it appears the pattern could begin to change on Mother's Day weekend, with the real warmth gushing into Minnesota starting on Monday May 9th. If the upper air shift verifies, temperatures may surge well into the 70s (and possibly 80?) in southern Minnesota & Wisconsin the week of May 9th.

As the warmer air (& humidity) surge north, we may see an increase in severe storms at times.

It figures for Minnesota. From snow to summer (and mosquitoes?) in a few days? They say everything in life's a trade off...pick your poison I guess.

Right now I'd put the probability of much warmer weather at about 60% for the week of May 9th. But that's a lot higher that I would have given yesterday.

Let's see how the upper air pattern evolves over the next 10 days.

In the meantime...

There are a lot of disgruntled Minnesotans these days. We've long since lost our sense of humor for cold, gray snowy days, especially in late April. I'm not hearing the "bring it on" bravado anymore. And I'm really starting to see that some are seriously affected by SAD, well into April.

All I can say is hang in there...things (the weather) really will change for the better!

Snowy start up north:

Take a look at the map below. Yep, that's snow up north.

It has been snowing in Duluth, Ely and the Iron Range cities this morning.

It's really piling up in northwest Wisconsin.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE PRELIMINARY SNOW REPORTS FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS
AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AROUND THE NORTHLAND. THESE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
----------------------- -- --------- -------
9.00 2NW MELLEN WI ASHLAND 0730 AM
6.50 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
5.50 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
4.30 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0600 AM
4.00 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0522 AM
3.80 5 S HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
3.00 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0720 AM
3.00 GLIDDEN WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
3.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
2.50 SAGINAW MN ST. LOUIS 0730 AM
2.50 10 S SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0700 AM
1.50 TOFTE MN COOK 0725 AM
1.50 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
1.50 3 NW CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0600 AM
1.30 GILE WI IRON 0700 AM
1.00 2 SE ESKO MN CARLTON 0630 AM
0.80 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0700 AM

Pretty "sick" for late April, even up north. 'Nuff said.

Play ball tonight?

I would not want to be on the Twins management team today.

This will be one of those days when no matter what decision you make, somebody's going to be unhappy.

All the major models (GFS, NAM, RUC etc.) indicate a narrow "wrap around" precip band will slide south into the eastern half of Minnesota by 7pm this evening. They also paint a temperature profile right near freezing aloft that should bring borderline rain/snow showers into the metro.

We may be only talking about a few hundredths of an inch of precip (compared to Tuesday's 1.5" deluge), but it may be enough to keep the field wet and make for some interesting visuals at TF if snowflakes are coming down as temps fall back into the upper 30s tonight.

Will conditions be "playable?" Maybe. Will it be cold, wet and miserable? Absolutely.

Interesting call. They do have those heaters in the dugout and around Target Field. Where can I buy some "hot chocolate futures" at TF?

Anyone remember those ancient Vikings games with snow coming down on the "frozen tundra?"

Severe nightmare continues:

Another day, another 55 torndoes. That's the tally yesterday from SPC.

That puts April's preliminary tornado tally at a stunning 656 twisters.

Severe weather stretched along a cold front from Texas all the way to New York last night.

Storms continue to rumble today across the southeast with more "high risk" areas today. It just won't end. Look for more tornadoes (another 30 to 50?) again today.

Here's hoping I can write some better weather news tomorrow...let's see if the notion of a big pattern change to spring is still in the cards.

Hang in there!

PH

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Twins rain out; Drizzle & mist overnight, Flakes Wednesday?

Posted at 7:05 PM on April 26, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Baseball, Rainfall, Winter/spring 2011

At least the heavy rain is over.

The core of the steady rain delivering part of our weather system is fading, but the cold, wind, and lighter mist & drizzle will linger overnight into early Wednesday.

Part 2 of our slow motion weather system will bring a return of rain and even some possible snow showers by late Wednesday in the "wrap around" precip shield on the system's back side.

Record rainfall:

It looks like several locations will set daily rainfall records for April 26th.

So far Twin Cities Airport has bucketed 1.44" of rain as of late afternoon. That smashes the previous daily rainfall record of 1.26" set in 1893.

Here are some additional rainfall totals from today:

Deephaven 1.77"
St. Paul Holman Field 1.51"
Target Field - Visitor's dugout 1.45"
Eden Prairie 1.44"

Rainfall "Bull's Eye:"

Today's swirling rainfall vortex centered from the metro down to Rochester, with a huge area of 1"+ rainfall totals.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall estimates show the rainfall jackpot ran from the St. Paul suburbs down to Zumbrota & Rochester. Storm total rainfall estimates exceed 2" in these areas.

Snow next?

The system's heavy precip "conveyor belt" is breaking down and the heavier steadier rainfall is fading. Now the colder air is wrapping into the system from the northeast. Look for a changeover to snow in many areas tonight into Wednesday. Precip may "phase" back and forth from drizzle to snow Wednesday during the daylight hours with temperatures hovering either side of the critical 32 degree mark in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere.

It does look like there will be some slushy accumulations from the North Shore and Duluth into northwest Wisconsin.

It may be cold enough for some wet snowflakes in the metro overnight and then again Wednesday evening. Oh the joy!

Twins tie 2010 rain out tally, in April!:

The score is tied at 2, and it's only the top of the 2nd inning.

Today's 2nd rainout of the 2011 season at Target Field ties the entire total for 2010, and it's still only April. There is a chance we'll see rainout or "snowout?" # 3 Wednesday evening at Target Field.

A double header is scheduled for Thursday with the Rays.

Thankfully the Minnesota Twins (and fans) lead charmed weather lives last year. You knew the law of weather averages, and outdoor baseball would catch up in 2011.

A nice may night in 2010 at Target Field.

How do they decide?

A variety of weather sources and factors go into deciding when a Twins game will be postponed by weather.

MPR colleague and Twin Meteorologist Craig Edwards is in frequent contact with Twins management and grounds crew Chief Larry DiVito. Craig and Larry assess weather and field conditions on game day. Larry knows his field, and how much it water is can take.

The infield is covered and playable under most conditions up to game time. The outfield drains extremely well at TF, but any ground that soaks up 1.5" of rain on game day is going to be wet. It's tough to keep baseballs dry and highly paid athletes from sliding (and risking potential injury) on wet turf.

A little "inside baseball" here. Larry is a bit of a weather geek himself, and I mean that in a good way. He's pretty savvy at using weather toys on his phone and computers in the TF "Weather Lab" to keep track of things. When you combine Larry's field & turf expertese and weather sense with Craig's meteorological professionalism and decades of Twin Cities weather experience, you've got a winning weather team making decisions for the Twins.

Craig Edwards mans the Target Field Weather Lab.

Other factors that may go into a decision to postpone are not unique to Minnesota, and are common in MLB. Fan comfort, possible future open dates and return road trips for teams all factor in. Nobody with the Twins has ever told me this, but I have to believe concession sales are much higher on a warm day in August than a on a wet cold 42 degree day in April. If you can get a make up game then, it's bigger bank.

I don't have any inside information on how "baseball decisions" factor in with the Twins, but it wouldn't surprise me if they are a factor. If a team is injured, or using a 5th starter and the ace is up tomorrow, why not postpone and make up the date later when you're healthy?

After my post yesterday on the Cardinals moves before Friday's severe weather outbreak, nothing would surprise me. Hey, all's fair in love, war and baseball right?

To me the bottom line is that we wanted outdoor baseball, and we got it. Fans will have to adjust to rainouts and rain delays, cold days at the ballpark etc. I think the Twins made a good move postponing early today and giving fans a heads up so they could avoid the trip to Target Field well in advance.

There will be plenty of nice warm sunny days at TF this season to enjoy.

Hang in there!

PH

Super Soaker: 1" to 2"+ rain, snow? Tornadoes swarm south

Posted at 9:22 AM on April 26, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Update 9:45 am:

1.22" rainfall (and counting) at the Huttner Weather lab in the west metro as of 9:45am.

***Orignal post 9:02am***

Talk about April showers...on steroids.

A major Midwest storm is wringing out steady moderate to heavy rainfall in Minnesota & western Wisconsin today.

The storm is producing some impressive rainfall totals. Rains have already topped 1 inch in southeast Minnesota, and will likely top 2"+ in some areas by early Wednesday.

To the south, another severe weather outbreak has left at least 7 dead in Arkansas overnight. Preliminary SPC reports indicate as many as 38 tornadoes swept across Texas, Arkansas & Tennessee Monday & Monday night.

The same area remains under a moderate to high risk for severe weather and tornadoes today according the latest convective outlook from SPC.

Here's the alarming verbiage form SPC today.

"The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak today and/or tonight. Details below."

The culprit:

A powerful spring storm is responsible for both our soggy Tuesday and the deadly severe outbreak in the Southern Plains.

The surface low is winding up in eastern Iowa this morning, and will stall over Wisconsin through tomorrow.

Potent surface low in eastern Iowa spreads rain north.
(Click all images to enlarge)

The slow motion storm will mean rain (and some snow) will linger over the Upper Midwest, with another day of severe weather along the trailing cold front in the south.

Soaking rains:

Rainfall totals are already impressive. Over an inch has fallen near Rochester, with a healthy .95" in the weather lab Deephaven rain gauge as of 8:20 am.

Here are some other rainfall totals as of 7 am this morning.

This NWS storm total rainfall estimate map may end up on the conservative side.

Wind too!

A strong steady wind is howling today as the storm winds up and wraps into Minnesota. Winds are gusting to over 30 mph in some areas.

Radar with wind gusts overlay.

Snow mixes in tonight & Wednesday?

It does appear the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be just cold enough to mix in some wet snowflakes late tonight and early Wednesday. The best chance for accumulating snow will be north & east of the metro. There could be a few inches of slush early Wednesday morning in Rice Lake, Hayward & Spooner up toward the Brule River.

Any snow that does mix in in the metro will not stick with temps above freezing.

Severe April 2011: All time USA tornado record?

The swarm of tornado outbreaks this month is simply freakish, off the charts crazy.

Remember these are preliminary numbers, but check out these stunning numbers so far in April from SPC.

559 (and counting daily) - Preliminary USA tornado count so far in April 2011.

267 - Previous April tornado record set in 1974 (Year of the "Super Outbreak.")

543 - All time monthly USA tornado record set in May 2003.

39 - tornado fatalities so far this month. (3 year running April average is 6.)

12 - "Killer tornadoes" so far this month. (Annual average is 22.)

38 - Additional tornado reports Monday.

Even with the expected "downward adjustment" from preliminary to final tornado numbers in April, it seems clear we have already smashed the previous April record of 267 tornadoes from the "Super Outbreak" year of 1974.

As we add more tornaodes today, it's possible we may make a run at the all time monthly record of 543 set in May 2003 when the final numbers are counted.

It is clear that this April will be one for the (tornado) record books.

The Big Question: Why?

There is consensus that tornadoes increase in the central plains in La Nina years like 2011.

Here's a post from the excellent 'Capital Weather Gang" blog.

"A study that examined the relationship between sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and the number of tornadoes in the U.S. found a weak correlation between La Nina and a greater number of tornadoes. Another study found tornadoes during La Niña years had longer than average track lengths, more violent tornadoes, and a good probability of having an outbreak of 40 or more tornadoes. Brooks points out that both the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak in 1965 and the Super Outbreak in 1974 occurred during La Nina years."

There is also evidence that though overall annual tornado numbers have increased dramatically since the 1950s. Some (much?) of that increase is due to increased and more accurate reporting of tornadoes.

Today's Doppler networks, high resolutions satellite, TV weather wars and caravans of nomadic storm chasers roaming the plains with digital video cameras and cell phones leave very few tornadoes undetected.

What we don't know is why some years like this year are so off the charts, out of control tornado spawning beasts.

I've had the pleasure if sharing interviews and dinner with folks like Greg Carbin at SPC and Howie Bluestein who are featured in the NY Times piece that came out Monday. It is because of dedicated people like Greg & Howie (and thousands of others) that we have success stories like Friday's EF-4 (possible EF-5?) tornado in St. Louis where NWS warnings gave a 22 minute lead time and nobody was seriously hurt or killed.

We did not get so lucky last night in Arkansas, where violent tornadoes and flash flood claimed multiple lives.

Here in Minnesota we can take away a couple of things. Last year's all time Minnesota tornado record (final tally of 113?) may not have been a freak occurrence. Our overall tornado numbers have nearly doubled since the 1950s from around 26 per year to nearly 50.

Also, severe weather season will move north over the next 4-6 weeks. Now is the time to be ready, so that if the St. Louis & Arkansas type tornadoes move north you'll be prepared.

PH

Comment on this post

Rain now, Twins rainouts, Cardinals "tornado" victory?

Posted at 5:33 PM on April 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Winter/spring 2011

Here comes the rain again.....

Our next weathermaker is pumping rainfall north into Minnesota. This one looks potent, and most of Minnesota south east of a Worthington to Duluth line will see a good soaking in the next 36 hours.

-Latest Twin Cities radar

Let's break down the system at hand.

The track:

Low pressure is deepening and moving north. The track of the surface low through eastern Iowa, almost due north assures plenty of gulf moisture will be dragged north with the system, then wrung out over Minnesota.

Speed: Slow motion rain machine:

The system's slow motion will mean a long duration event. Most of the rain will fall Tuesday as the storm stalls over Wisconsin... but rain (and snow?) may linger in some areas Wednesday and even early Thursday before the system finally pulls east.

Super soaker:

Cold air and slow movement will make this system an efficient rain producer. Look for the potential for an all day steady rain in much of southern Minnesota Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may be some embedded heavy rain pockets, and a clap of thunder is a possibility.

Rainfall totals should be heavy in southern Minnesota, then taper off as you move northwest. A cutting northeast wind and temps in the 40s will make it feel more like March at times.

Here are some projected rainfall totals by Wednesday evening.

Detroit Lakes to Bemidji: Light rainfall generally under .25". Little or rain north.

Twin Cities to Duluth: Generally .50" to 1" with some heavier totals in the south & east metro possible.

South & east of the metro including the I-90 corridor; Fairmont, Albert Lea, Rochester, Mankato, Owatonna Red Wing & Eau Claire:

Rainfall totals here could exceed 1" to 2"+ by late Wednesday.

Bottom line: This will be a steady soaking rain for most areas of southern Minnesota.

Snowfall potential?

May begins on Sunday, so you wouldn't think we'd have to be talking about snow potential this week. Then again, this is Minnesota. We've been spoiled the past few years it seems.

It appears the atmosphere will be marginally cold enough for some wet snowflakes to mix in early Wednesday, especially north and east of the metro. Some slushy accumulations are possible, especially from Hinckley to Rice Lake and Hayward and maybe even near Duluth early Wednesday.

Better by Friday: Friday looks like the next best day after Monday's beautiful weather. Temperatures should surge onto the (upper?) 60s again. The respite may be brief with another storm rolling in Friday night & Saturday.

Twins match 2010 rainout totals in April?

We all watched happily in amazement as the Twins dodged a series of weather bullets last season at Target Field. It looks like the weather law of averages is catching up this year.

Last season featured just two games all season postponed due to weather at Target Field. It looks like we'll match (and maybe exceed) that total in April in 2011.

Friday night's Twins-Indians was game postponed. Right now I'd say there's a 90%+ chance tomorrow's Twins-Rays game is a washout. And Wednesday night looks iffy too. Thursday may be playable depending on how fast the system moves east.

That could be 3 games in April postponed due to weather at TF in 2011. Add a 4th from Yankee Stadium on April 6th and the Twins have some making up to do. Look for some doubleheaders later this year.

Did the Cardinals use a "severe weather strategy" to beat the Reds?

Thanks to my partner in weather crime (and Twins meteorologist) Craig Edwards for passing this along today.

It seems Tony LaRussa may have used incoming severe weather to pull a fast one on the Cincinnati Reds Friday night.

Check out the story from stltoday.com.

"A weather-delayed game the Cardinals ultimately won 4-2 at Busch Stadium negotiated its first turn almost 30 minutes before first pitch when the Cardinals notified the Cincinnati Reds that the game would start as scheduled despite an ominous weather forecast.

Asked after the game whether he believed the Cardinals operated under a different weather advisory than what he received, Baker said, "I'd say there's a pretty good chance. But, hey, it almost worked out for us."

Believe me, there will be days when the Twins will win a game because they have quality weather help in the dugout. Who knew the teams MVP could be an accurate weather forecast?

PH

Magnificent Monday! Jekyll & Hyde week; La Nina spring

Posted at 9:05 AM on April 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Ice out, Winter/spring 2011

Sunshine alert!

Would you believe back to back days of fabulous spring like weather?

Today is the day to get out for an outdoor lunch or walk. Look for traffic jams with walkers, runners & roller bladers around area parks this evening.

Temps will push into the 60s today (Metro near 67) under bright sunny skies. Enjoy!!

Jekyll & Hyde weather week:

If this week's weather is like a roller coaster, we're at the top of the hill. Get ready to put your arms up in the air and scream as we take a dive down the hill Tuesday.

Three glorious days in a row seems too much to ask this spring, and it looks like a change in weather mood will move in Tuesday.

The next low pressure system will spin up over the Upper Midwest Tuesday & Wednesday.

The result is rain for the southern half of Minnesota, and some of it could add up to between .50" and 1"+ including areas in and near the Twin Cities.

It looks like the system may have a sharp northern edge cut off, meaning little or no rainfall to the north around Brainerd and other spots in central Minnesota.

There is some indication the atmosphere could be marginally cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix in late Tuesday night & Wednesday morning, but at this point I don't see much chance of anything more than a brief accumulation on grassy areas, especially north of the metro.

Weather improves again late week:

The fast moving jet stream flowing over the Upper Midwest will send another brief break in the weather toward Minnesota Thursday & Friday. Look for sunshine to return and increasingly mild weather with highs back into the (upper?) 60s Friday.

Right now, Monday, Thursday & Friday look like the best days this week for baseball practice or other outdoor activities.

Rain returns Friday night & Saturday?

The next low pressure storm (after Tuesday's system) appears headed this way Friday night into Saturday. We could see a bout of thunder late Friday night or early Saturday morning as this system approaches.

Weekned: Windy & cooler

It's early, but at this point the weekend looks windy & cooler. One of these weekends we'll time things to get two sunny mild days in a row...but probably not next weekend.

St. Louis EF-4 tornado damage surveys in:

NWS St. Louis has the latest on the devestating EF-4 tornado that blasted St. Louis Airport Friday evening.

"During the evening of Friday April 22, an intense supercell thunderstorm produced a long-track tornado which tore a path of destruction from west to east across the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. The tornado reached a maximum intensity of EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale as it tracked through the community of Bridgeton, just west of Lambert St. Louis International Airport. The total path length was 22 miles, with a width of up to 0.4 miles."

Drought, tornadoes, floods, & spring snowfall: Blame it on La Nina?

Meteorologists sometimes like to explain several events with one "big picture" answer.

This may be one of those years where we can do that.

What do massive Texas brush fires, Oklahoma drought, Iowa & Missouri tornadoes and Minnesota floods and spring snowfall have in common? The answer just may be La Nina.

All of these things have a tendency to occur in La Nina years.

The explanation from NOAA:

"Since a strong jet stream is an important ingredient for severe weather, the position of the jet stream determines the regions more likely to experience tornadoes.

Contrasting El Niño and La Niña winters, the jet stream over the United States is considerably different. During El Niño the jet stream is oriented from west to east over the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. Thus this region is most susceptible to severe weather. During La Niña the jet stream extends from the central Rockies east- northeastward to the eastern Great Lakes. Thus severe weather is likely to be further north and west during La Niña than El Niño."

More La Nina answers from NOAA here.

Ice out update: Gull Lake mostly ice free

I had a chance to visit my place on Gull Lake over the weekend, and it looks like Gull is mostly ice free. I would estimate there about 30% ice cover as of Easter Sunday, with about 70% of the lake open water.

Here are some photos.

Get the latest ice out updates here.

Judging from the traffic coming home along I-94 late Easter Sunday, many folks took the Easter weekend to open up the cabin for the first time!

Winter Severity Index 2010-'11: Moderately severe?

You probably don't need me to tell you we just lived through a moderately severe winter in Minnesota.

Believe it or not, the Minnesota DNR keeps tabs on just how "severe" the winter is when it comes to deer survival. Here are the categories for last winter up north, courtesy of the Duluth News Tribune.

Minnesota winter severity: Moderately severe

"The final Winter Severity Index numbers are in for stations across Northeastern Minnesota, and in many places, it was a "moderately severe" winter by Department of Natural Resources standards. The agency uses the readings primarily to calculate the effects of winter on deer survival.

Severe winter -- WSI more than 180"

Enjoy the sunshine today!

PH

Weekend Forecast: Rainy start, fabulous finish!

Posted at 4:26 PM on April 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

The weekend is here, and the weather will gradually improve as we head toward Easter Sunday.

Next wave of rain tonight:

The next wave of rain is on schedule this Friday evening. Scattered showers are rolling through tonight. Temperatures in the 40s will mean precip will stay mostly rain...in spite of more erroneous suggestions by the NAM yesterday that some of the precip could change to snow overnight tonight.

Overall rainfall totals look to be between .10" and .35" in most areas tonight. The rain may be a factor in tonight's Twins game at Target Field.

Saturday should start gray and damp. A few lingering showers may pop up at times, but rainfall totals should be light. There may be a trend toward brighter skies and peeks of sun as the day wears on. Temps should rebound into the 50s.

Easter Sunday (sunrise 6:14am) still looks like the best day of the weekend at this point. Mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temperatures making the low 60s by mid afternoon.

Next week: Spring takes hold?

No matter how long the winter, spring is sure to follow. ~Proverb

In the spring I have counted one hundred and thirty-six different kinds of weather inside of four and twenty hours. ~Mark Twain

These quotes kind of sum up our stunted spring this year in Minnesota, don't they?

Spring has a way of creeping in slowly at this latitude, and it looks like next week may be the week we can all say..."finally, spring!"

Weak high pressure will linger into Monday, and it looks like 60s may hang around with some sun. A storm system finally appears ready to miss Minnesota to the south Tuesday...leaving us with mixed clouds & sun and temps holding around 60 again.

It appears the weather will warm dramatically by Thursday & Friday (upper 60s to low 70s?)...with a growing thunder threat Friday before we transition into a somewhat cooler & showery weather patten next weekend.

Enjoy or improving weather picture over the next week!

PH

Rain moves in; Spring pattern next week?

Posted at 5:20 PM on April 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Update 5:15pm:

The first wave of rain with Friday's weather system is rolling north tonight. Expect showers tonight, as the rain spreads northward.

We may see a break in the rain early Friday as the first wave passes overnight. The next stronger wave rolls in late Friday with more rain. Rainfall totals with both waves may approach .50" to 1" in some areas.

The NAM is still trying to suggest we could see some snow overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. We'll see.

Keep the umbrella handy over the next 36 hours!

PH

Welcome to the "stubborn spring" of 2011.

A patchwork of weather on the map today will bring a variety of weather our way in the next 48 hours.

Morning fog & frost:

Dense fog & frosty rooftops greeted residents in eastern MN & western Wisconsin today. Visibilities were at 1/4 mile in many locations.

Attempted sunshine??

The sun is out, at least briefly today in between weather systems. A fast moving jet stream is already pushing clouds east ahead of our next weathermaker.

Rain by tonight:

The next shot of rain is already zipping east through the Dakotas today. Rain is falling in Pierre this morning, and will reach western Minnesota later this afternoon and the metro by later tonight. The atmosphere may be marginally cold enough to mix in a few....ugh hum...snowflakes around midnight.

Wet Friday:

Low pressure will bring rain Friday. It may come in a couple of waves, but totals could be significant. Anywhere from .40" to .70" could fall by Saturday morning.

Again, one model (the NAM) is hinting the atmosphere could be just cold enough for some snow late Friday night. Let's hope the NAM is out to lunch again this time.

Brighter weekend:

There could be a lingering shower early Saturday, but the weekend trend is encouraging.

It appears the sun will come out Saturday and return Easter Sunday. Temperatures should push into the 50s Saturday afternoon, and could crack 60 Sunday afternoon.

Next rain Monday?

Our pesky, active little jet stream appears to be sending another low our way Monday into early Tuesday. That could mean another shot of rain.

Pattern change next week: Spring ahead??

There are signs that a major weather pattern change could finally bring prolonged spring like weather into the Upper Midwest starting late next week.

The jet stream shows signs of lifting north into southern Canada, and that will allow milder air to finally slide in from the south.

60s look like a good bet by next Thursday & Friday...and they could last into the following week. If the pattern verifies, 70s could be in the cards on the next 10-14 days.

Stay tuned & hang in there!

Freshwater Society "Ice out Loon In" event tonight at Bayview:

Loon & April snow (Photo by Jayne Solinger)

I'm honored to volunteer to host the 1st Annual Freshwater Society "Ice Out Loon In" benefit tonight at the Bayview Event Center in Excelsior on the shores of Lake Minnetonka.

There will be a fun variety of activities...from a loon calling contest to nature programs by Jim Gilbert and a host of others.

The event is open to the public. Ticket info here.

Hope to see you there for a good cause!

PH

Brighter days ahead; April snow stats

Posted at 5:15 PM on April 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

The sun will come out again, I promise.

After a run of gray dreary days I think we'd all welcome a little sunshine. It looks like the sun will return Thursday. There's also some rain in the forecast...and what looks like a pretty good Easter weekend.

Some forecast details:

Thursday: Brighter! Touch of AM fog, then mostly sunny, with a few clouds late. High near 52.

Thursday Night: Clouds increase & rain moves in. Low near 40.

Friday: Wet. Periods of rain. High near 49. SE winds 10-20 mph. Rainfall of .30" to .60" possible.

Saturday: Sun returns! High near 54.

Easter Sunday: Sunrise 6:14am. Mostly sunny & milder. High near 62. Grass noticeably greener?

April snow is common:

Our little morning snowburst produced 1.3" at MSP Airport. The total still keeps us in 4th place overall in the "snowiest winter on record" ranking.

"We're #4!... we're #4!"

Here are some additional snowfall totals from Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
233 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION. MANY LOCATIONS REPORTED THAT THE SNOWFALL MELTED
QUICKLY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARMED. SNOWFALL REPORTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE ARE LISTED.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.00 1 SSE CLEAR LAKE MN SHERBURNE 0806 AM
3.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0759 AM
2.50 ST PAUL U OF MN CAMPUS MN RAMSEY 1100 AM
2.50 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0936 AM
2.50 2 ENE PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
2.40 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0642 AM
2.20 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 1016 AM
2.20 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.20 BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 0630 AM
2.10 ST CLOUD STATE UNIV MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 ST CLOUD AIRPORT MN STEARNS 0100 PM
2.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1016 AM
2.00 4 E ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0730 AM
2.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0643 AM
1.90 5 NE FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
1.70 3 WNW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
1.70 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0700 AM
1.70 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.60 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0700 AM
1.60 1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0700 AM
1.50 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.50 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0800 AM
1.50 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0705 AM
1.50 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0700 AM
1.40 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0830 AM
1.40 1 NW ISANTI MN ISANTI 0600 AM
1.30 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
1.30 CHANHASSEN NWS MN CARVER 0100 PM
1.30 FARMINGTON CWSU MN DAKOTA 1100 AM
1.30 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
1.30 1 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0700 AM
1.20 HAMMOND WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
1.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0630 AM
1.20 6 WNW ELLSWORTH WI PIERCE 0600 AM
1.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0730 AM
1.10 4 SE MAPLEWOOD MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.10 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
1.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
1.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0800 AM
1.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0800 AM
1.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
1.00 ST CROIX FALLS WI POLK 0700 AM
1.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
1.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.00 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
1.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
1.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
1.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
1.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0645 AM
1.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0630 AM

The map shows the heavy snow band that dumped several inches on southeast Minnesota and much of central Wisconsin Tuesday night.

Here's a really cool new Experimental Snowfall Analysis tool from NOAA's Southern Region Headquarters. You can create your own custom snowfall maps here.

April snow is the norm:

As much as it pains me to say this, April snow is not unusual in Minnesota. Here are some April snowfall stats for the Twin Cities.

3.1" - Average April snowfall in the Twin Cities
1.9" - April 2011 snowfall (includes 1.3" from Wednesday morning)
2.5" - April 2010 snowfall in metro!
2006 - Last April in the Twin Cities without measureable snowfall

A check of daily snowfall records in late April (starting April 20th) shows there is only one date in April (April 24th) where no snow has been recorded in the Twin Cities. Daily snowfall records for the last 10 days of April range up to 6.6"!

You may be stunned to find out that so far this April snowfall is running below average and temperatures are running +2.5 degrees at MSP Airport.

It's been a long winter...and any additional cold, gray, snowy days at this point just seem wrong. I can't promise this, but I really do think this will be the last snowfall this season in most of southern Minnesota.

Hang in there!

PH

Last Hurrah: Morning snow showers candy coating

Posted at 7:31 AM on April 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The surprising weather system which spared the metro snowfall accumulations on Tuesday has one more twist today.

As a sort of "last hurrah" the system is cranking out a last band of snow showers. With temperatures just above freezing, the snow band is enough to produce some grassy accumulations, with snow melting on pavement at the weather lab in the west metro.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM SNOW PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
04/20/2011 M2.2 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
04/20/2011 M2.0 INCH STEARNS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0643 AM SNOW KIMBALL 45.31N 94.30W
04/20/2011 M2.0 INCH STEARNS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

Expect the snow showers to taper from west to east today, and be a melted memory by later today.

PH

Comment on this post

Metro spared; 2" to 5" so far in SE MN

Posted at 3:20 PM on April 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 3:20pm:

Morning and midday radar trends (see below) turned out to be right on. As the system slides south, the northern edge of the snow shield is grazing the southeast metro, setting up in Dakaota County.

It looks like most of the metro will get skunked (spared?) with this system. Expect a slushy inch or so in the SE metro, especially Dakota county.

Staeady snow has been heavy at times in southeast Minnesota & northern Iowa. Here are some totals so far courtesy of the La Crosse NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA...

LOCATION SNOWFALL TIME LAT/LON

NORTHEAST IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON 8NW 3.2 0140 PM 43.34N 91.6W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
MONONA 2.0 0114 PM 43.05N 91.39W

...FLOYD COUNTY...
CHARLES CITY 3.0 0136 PM 43.07N 92.68W

...HOWARD COUNTY...
CRESCO 4.7 0136 PM 43.38N 92.12W

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER 0.7 0150 PM 44.03N 92.86W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
HARMONY 5.0 0119 PM 43.56N 92.01W
SPRING VALLEY 4.0 0113 PM 43.69N 92.39W
SPRING VALLEY 3E 3.4 1252 PM 43.68N 92.31W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
SPRING GROVE 4N 3.2 0130 PM 43.60N 91.64W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN 3.5 0105 PM 43.67N 92.98W

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
HOLMEN 2S 2.0 0119 PM 43.95N 91.26W
WEST SALEM 1.5 0115 PM 43.90N 91.1W

...VERNON COUNTY...
VIROQUA 7SE 4.0 1225 PM 43.51N 90.83W

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 AM SNOW HARMONY 43.56N 92.01W
04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1015 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AIRPORT 43.91N 92.50W
04/19/2011 E2.0 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1028 AM SNOW SPRING VALLEY 3E 43.68N 92.31W
04/19/2011 E2.4 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1057 AM SNOW FAYETTE 9W 42.84N 91.91W
04/19/2011 E2.5 INCH FAYETTE IA PUBLIC

1059 AM SNOW CALEDONIA 6S 43.54N 91.50W
04/19/2011 E4.7 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1100 AM SNOW AUSTIN 43.67N 92.98W
04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1104 AM SNOW MANTORVILLE 44.07N 92.76W
04/19/2011 E1.1 INCH DODGE MN PUBLIC

1105 AM SNOW DOUGLAS 2N 44.16N 92.57W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1107 AM SNOW WINONA 3S 43.99N 91.61W
04/19/2011 E1.2 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

1110 AM SNOW LYLE 2NE 43.54N 92.92W
04/19/2011 E3.8 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1112 AM SNOW RENO 3SW 43.53N 91.33W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1113 AM SNOW DORCHESTER 43.47N 91.52W
04/19/2011 E2.3 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1114 AM SNOW WAUKON 8NW 43.34N 91.60W
04/19/2011 E2.1 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1116 AM SNOW LANSING 4SE 43.32N 91.16W
04/19/2011 E3.2 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1117 AM SNOW NEW HAMPTON 43.06N 92.31W
04/19/2011 E3.0 INCH CHICKASAW IA PUBLIC

1120 AM SNOW ELKADER 6SSW 42.81N 91.43W
04/19/2011 E0.7 INCH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1124 AM SNOW ST ANSGAR 43.38N 92.92W
04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH MITCHELL IA PUBLIC

1127 AM SNOW LA CROSSE NWS 43.82N 91.19W
04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

1131 AM SNOW SOLDIERS GROVE 43.39N 90.77W
04/19/2011 E2.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1132 AM SNOW STEUBEN 2SW 43.15N 90.89W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1134 AM SNOW PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 43.03N 91.14W
04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1136 AM SNOW GILLINGHAM 43.43N 90.45W
04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH RICHLAND WI PUBLIC

1139 AM SNOW WESTBY 3ENE 43.66N 90.82W
04/19/2011 E1.6 INCH VERNON WI PUBLIC

Update 8:45am:

Sticking with the notion of 1" to 2" in the metro by morning for now...but I'm seeing radar trends (and dry air near the surface) that may indicate the system is sliding south.

There is still a chance most of this system will miss the metro to the south, but I still think the next wave of precip should overrun the metro through midday into the PM.

Heavy snow still a go for the I-90 corridor, where visibilities have been under 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy snow at times.

Stay tuned as precip fights to work north today...

-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 8:30am***

Our unseasonably late winter weather system is here.

A mixed bag of rain and snow is expanding slowly north today through southern Minnesota.

Rain/snow mix in southern MN Tuesday morning.

The system is "temperature critical" meaning a swing of just 2 or 3 degrees in any one spot will spell the difference between rain and snow today. Colder air and dark of night should mean a change to all snow by this evening as the system slides by to the south.

As we talked about yesterday, snowfall accumulations still appear to be heaviest in southeast MN & western WI. I expect a band of 3" to 6"+ along the I-90 corridor from Worthington to Albert Lea and Rochester to La Crosse....running up through Winona and Eau Claire.

Snowfall rates will be intense enough to overcome warm ground in these areas...and I expect some slick roadways today & tonight into early Wednesday.

Heavy snow band south.

The overnight model runs confirm yesterday's thinking form the weather lab, and it still appears we'll get more of a glancing blow from Willmar through the Twin Cities to Rice Lake, with 1" to 3" on most lawns by Wednesday morning.

It looks to me like most of the metro will see an inch or two on grassy areas early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of 3" in the south & east metro.

Poor model performance again?

This system is still not in the books and anything could happen, but it looks like several model runs got it wrong again. This has been a trend this spring with Upper Midwest weather systems. The GFS (and to some degree the NAM) has been all over the map, with wildly varying snowfall projections for the metro. I wonder if the numerical modelers in Washington D.C. are paying attention.

It takes a lot of forecasting savvy and guts to stare down computer output of up to a foot of snow, and forecast an inch or two. Quite frankly it's getting old and tiresome. The GFS in particular has had an abysmal record with snowfall projections for the Twin Cities this late winter & spring.

Expect some flakes to fly as we head through the day and tonight, mostly in the southern half of Minnesota.

PH

Comment on this post

Storm trends south: Metro forecast 1" to 3" Heavier S & E

Posted at 5:30 PM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The weather crystal ball is still "partly cloudy"...but we're beginning to see some discernable trends with Tuesday's weather system.

Let's run down the variables.

Storm track:

Today's model runs continue the trend of pushing the surface low track further south.

That means the axis for the heavy snow band shifts south too, and puts the Twin Cities into the more precarious lighter snow accumulation zone on the system's northwest fringes.

Timing & precip type:

It still looks as if precip will expand and move north Tuesday from along the I-90 corridor early toward the metro by midday.

The precip may be mixed during the daytime hours Tuesday, but should change to all snow by evening. Expect snow to end from west to east Wednesday morning, with a windy & colder day behind the system.

Snowfall rates:

Snowfall rates could be heavy at times Tuesday night, especially in southeast MN & western WI. I expect the potential for 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities (1/2S to 1/4S+) in moderate to heavy snow at times Tuesday night in these areas. There is the potential for "thundersnow."

The snowfall intensity should overcome warm pavement in these areas Tuesday night for slick road conditions.

Snow totals:

I still expect this to be a "good" strong snow event for southeast Minnesota. Right now I am leaning toward general accumulations of 3" to 6"+ (with a few 8"+ totals) along the I-90 corridor including Albert Lea, Austin, Rochester & La Crosse. The heavy snow band should also include Winona and Eau Claire and may stretch as far north as Owatonna & Red Wing.

In the metro I think the best snowfall range at this point is 1" to 3" by Wednesday morning. The best chance for higher end accumulations (3"+?) appear to be in the far south & east metro.

Springtime snow accumulations difficult

There are several factors in April that make accumulating (and forecasting!) snow more difficult than during the winter months.

Many springtime factors work against heavy snowfall accumulations.

-Time of day:

In the spring, solar intensity is about 5 times greater than during the winter months. Even with a thick overcast, the lowest mile of the atmosphere can see several degrees of warming in April.

This means that precip can stay rain or mixed during the daytime (and not accumulate), when it would be all snow compared with the same system in winter. That can reduce snowfall totals accordingly.

-Warm ground:

In winter with snowpack and pavement temps below freezing, every snowflake that falls accumulates. Not so in spring. Ground (surface) temps are in the 40s in most areas.

As a result, snowfall rates must be heavy for a prolonged period of hours to overcome surface melting from below.

-Air temperatures:

Temperatures with these systems often remain above freezing, even when it's snowing. This system is forecast to have metro temps above 36 degrees for most of the event, with only a few hours down to near 33.

That means melting is occurring from above as well as below for most of the event, reducing accumulations accordingly. It takes some really heavy snowfall rates to overcome above freezing temps below and above ground.

One scenario is that 3" to 4" of snow falls with this system in the metro...but only 1" to 2" can accumulate.

Bottom line:

Expect a rain/snow mix to spread gradually north Tuesday. Snow could become heavy Tuesday night. Highest accumulations will be in southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, where 3" to 6"+ may fall by Wednesday morning.

In the metro I expect most areas will see 1" to 3" on the ground by Wednesday morning, with some isolated 3"+ totals possible, especially south & east.

Let's see if tonight's model run continues the southward drift of the system...

PH

More snow likely, models vary; long track tornadoes

Posted at 10:12 AM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:20am:

Morning 12Z NAM model run comes in with about 4" to 5" snowfall for metro Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

Winter weather has overstayed its welcome this year, and it seems we're due for one more shot before spring finally takes hold.

The weather maps continue to look more like March this week. Another potent late winter storm (in springtime!) is heading for the upper Midwest Tuesday. There are still major model differences with this system, and another two "major" forecast model runs this morning and tonight may (hopefully) clarify the final outcome.

Winter storm watches have been posted for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story previews potential storm.

Based on what we know now, here's the rundown on snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The system:

Low pressure will track from Missouri to south of Chicago Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There are still model differences in the track, with the European model taking the system furthest south.

Precip timing & type:

A mixed bag of rain & snow should develop Tuesday in Iowa & the I-90 corridor early, and then slide north toward the Twin Cities during the afternoon.

GFS model sets up heavy precip band in SE Minnesota late Tuesday.

Precip will likely be mixed rain & snow Tuesday, changing to all snow Tuesday evening. Snowfall rates could increase and be heavy at times Tuesday night. Snow should gradually end Wednesday morning.

Snowfal Totals:

It does appear the system has the potential to produce 6"+ in the heaviest snow band, which most likely will set up south of the metro from Mankato to Albert Lea northeast to Eau Claire. Right now, cities & towns with the best chance for 6"+ appear to be Waseca, Owatonna, Rochester, Northfield, Red Wing & Winona.

NAM model: Heavy snow band south of metro.

Metro totals?

At this time the metro appears to be north of the heaviest snow band.

With major model differences in the storm track, I'm not ready to sign off on big accumulations for the Twin Cities just yet. We still have more than 24 hours and two major model runs before the snow flies. But it does appear that we will see some accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...inches to be determined tonight or early Tuesday morning.

A "plowable" event for the metro? A big maybe.

Forecast could change:

File this forecast under "changeable."

There is still a lot that could go wrong with the models this time of year...and especially this year. Model performance (especially the GFS) has been downright poor with the last few "storm" systems. Early snowfall forecasts have been all over the place again with this system...from over a foot of snow down to an inch.

Because of this I am going to wait a little longer than usual to issue a specific snowfall forecast for the metro. Suffice to say you should plan for some snow from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations will most likely favor grassy areas again. With warm pavement and air temps near or above freezing, there will need to be heavy snowfall rates for a longer period of time to see significant accumulations on roads...but that could happen Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There will be two major model updates in the next 24 hours beofre precip moves in.

Stay tuned...

Record southern tornado outbreak?

There's no doubt that the weekend tornado outbreak will go down as one of the biggest in U.S. history. The only question seems to be whether or not we will surpass the incredible number of 148 tornadoes in a 24 hour period form the April 3-4, 1974 "Super Outbreak."

248 tornadoes sweep the south in 3 days. (Map by Victor Gensini)

Here are some staggering numbers so far from last weekend's mega tornado outbreak.

248 - total number of preliminary tornado reports from Thursday-Saturday.

148 - Number of tornadoes in a 24 hour period in the 1974 "Super Outbreak."

45 - number of fatalities reported so far

63 miles - path length of Raleigh, NC tornado

65 miles - path length of the Fayetteville, NC tornado

3 miles - maximum path width of the Raleigh, NC tornado!

The numbers are staggering but don't even begin to tell the whole story. The size and intensity of these monster tornadoes over the weekend is frightening, even to trained meteroloigsts. The Raleigh tornado was 3 miles wide at the base! The storm chasers call these huge, violent tornadoes "wedges"...because they are so big they don't even look like tornadoes from a distance. You just see this big V-shaped cloud intersecting the ground.

Check out this remarkable time lapse video as the "rain wrapped" tornado moves into Raleigh, NC.

These big, violent EF3+ wedge tornadoes appear to have caused many of the tornado deaths this past weekend, especially in North Carolina.

Next severe outbreak Tuesday?

This overactive pattern looks like it will produce another severe weather outbreak Tuesday in the central plains on the southern end of our "winter storm."

SPC has already placed a moderate risk over the Ohio Valley.

Stay tuned...

PH

Saturday Winterlude; Southern severe outbreaks

Posted at 7:00 PM on April 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

It's mid-April in Minnesota, and the natives are getting a little restless.

Folks around these parts are more than a little ready for some extended spring weather.

It's already the 5th snowiest winter (84.7" and counting) on record, and we'll likely move into 4th place (84.9") by the time you wake up Saturday morning.

Many of us will wince at the slushy & snowy coating Saturday morning. Powerful April sun will come out again Saturday, and most of the white stuff will do a rapid disappearing act.

Blustery wintery winds will gradually ease late Saturday. And Sunday will feel nicer by comparison...with less wind, some sun and temps pushing the low 50s Sunday afternoon.

Overall, the cooler than average weather pattern looks to continue for a while. Next week looks downright soggy as April showers take over. A series of wet weather systems will track into the Upper Midwest next week.

The first shot of rain (snow north?) comes Monday...with a better chance for heavier rain moving in Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry & sunny for now, but new waves of rain may ride in Thursday & Friday of next week.

It appears to this forecaster that rainfall totals could easily exceed 1" to 2+" in the next week in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

This will keep rivers running high.

Want some good news? It looks like next weekend could be sunnier and drier at this point.

Pattern change ahead?

In the longer range, there may be a shift to a drier and much warmer weather pattern in 2 weeks, beginning on or about Friday April 29th.

A shift in the upper air pattern may funnel much warmer air into the Upper Midwest, and it's possible we could see an extended run of at least 70s (maybe 80?) by the first weekend in May.

Stay tuned...

Southern severe outbreaks:

It's been a bad run of severe weather in the south this week.

Thursday's Oklahoma tornado outbreak featured 16 twister reports.

Friday's numbers are still pouring in, but over 60 tornadoes have been reported in Mississippi and Alabama as of Friday evening.

There are reports of extensive damage and injuries near Clinton, Mississippi.

So far in 2011, about 350 tornadoes have been reported in the USA by SPC. That's about 145 ahead of the pace for 2010.

Last Sunday's tornado outbreak in Wisconsin was the biggest April outbreak on record in Wisconsin.

Multiple tornadoes also ravaged Iowa last Saturday evening.

It remains to be seen whether or not Minnesota will see a repeat of our record 113 tornadoes from 2010. La Nina years can be active tornado years. One thing that seems certain is that it's likely the severe weather pattern will shift north over the next 6-8 weeks, and that Minnesota will probably see our share of severe weather events.

This is severe weather awareness week in Minnesota. Take a few minutes to brush up on your severe weather plan, and to tune up the weather radio.

As always...stay tuned.

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Blustery April forecast; Ice out update; major warm up?

Posted at 9:17 AM on April 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Ice out, Springtime, Winter/spring 2011

Two steps forward, one step back.

That chilly breeze you feel today is our latest reminder that the Spring of 2011 is taking its sweet time to show up. It may feel more like March out there for the next 48 hours in Minnesota at times.

A slow moving low pressure system will track through Missouri & Illinois over the next 48 hours.

The system will impact Minnesota weather with windy, cool wet weather and some snow...but not the heavy metro "snowmageddon" advertised by some weather models over the past week.

Thursday: Expect a chilly northeast wind from 15 to 25 mph today. Showery weather in southern Minensota, dry air from the metro north with a mix of sun & clouds.

Radar image and dew point contours overlay shows "desert dry" air north.

Friday: Showers increase from west to east. Dry air near the metro may hold rain at bay much of the day. Rain showers change to wet snow overnight.

Best chances for accumulating snow in the eastern Dakotas to Duluth where several inches may fall. Maybe a slushy inch in the metro by Saturday morning.

Potential accumulating snow near Duluth.

Major winter storm in eastern Dakotas?

Saturday & Sunday: Saturday will start blustery and cold, but the weather will improve as the weekend wears on.

Look for a return to sunshine Saturday, and brisk NW winds will ease by late afternoon. After morning temps in the 30s (and wind chills in the 20s) highs should struggle to reach 50 by around 4pm.

Sunday should feature a sun-cloud mix with lighter winds and temps in the lowers 50s by afternoon.

Searching for spring: Major warm up in sight?

Okay this is going way out on a limb...but with everybody searching for spring I thought I'd pass along this ray of hope for much warmer weather.

The GFS (yes... the model we don't trust lately that has been overpredicting snowstorms) is hinting at a possible major warm up in about two weeks.

The GFS seems to be better at identifying high amplitude temperature trends than handling potential low pressure systems.

The GFS paints a big, (high amplitude) high pressure ridge over the central USA sometime around April 29th-30th. If that verifies, we could see a big warm up...maybe our first real taste of late spring or early summer like temps in Minnesota. The pattern suggests 70s, and maybe even the first 80 degree readings of 2011 for the metro.

GFS: Major upper air ridge & warm up April 29th?

It may be weather fantasy at this point...but it's all we've got and I'll take it! I'll keep an eye on a potential warm up in the next week or so.

Stay tuned....

Ice out reaches the metro:

Southern Minnesota lakes have been ice free for about a week now, and the thaw is moving north by the day.

-Albert Lea Lake ice out was Friday April 8th
-St. Olaf Lake ice out Sunday April 10th

Some metro lakes are now ice free, pretty much on schedule.

-Lake Calhoun ice out occurred Sunday April 10th
-White Bear Lake ice out occurred Wednesday April 13th
-Lake Minnetonka still had partial ice cover as of Wednesday

Open water on Excelsior Bay Monday evening with ice in the distance looking north.

Here's the latest, updated list of ice out for Minnesota from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

What defines "ice out?

"Ice out" is defined in different ways according to the Freshwater Society in Navarre.

Here's how they define ice out on Lake Minnetonka.

"On Lake Minnetonka, the ice is designated as "out" when it is possible to travel by small boat from any one shore to another shore through any passage on the lake. Ice-out dates have been determined using this method since 1968. Previous methods include: when the ice was 50% gone, when a boat could circle Big Island, when a boat could travel between Wayzata and Excelsior, when a car fell through the ice and by visual
observations from a number of lake locations."

Today, April 14th is the median (average) ice out date for Lake Minnetonka. Oddly enough, the ice has never gone out on the lake on April 15th. Last year the ice was out on Tonka April 2nd.

Tonka ice out facts. (Click to enlarge)

Ice melts from the bottom!

I was surprised to learn several years back that ice actually melts form the bottom up!

Here's a great description from the MN Climate Working Group.

How Lake Ice Melts

"Ed Swain, of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency describes the process of freezing and thawing lakes.

The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!"

PH

Nothing simple about forecasting April snow

Posted at 4:25 PM on April 13, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

After crunching the model output with as much energy as I could muster, I can't come up with any conclusion much better than the one from the experts at NOAA's Environmental Prediction Center.

This weather-maker is a work in progress and doesn't fit the text book guidelines for synoptic winter storms. It really shouldn't since we are well into April. Moisture will fall in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin from Friday through early Saturday. Snow falling during the cover of darkness in the eastern Dakotas has the best chance to accumulate four or more inches on Friday evening and night.

Here's the region outlined as the most probably area to accumulate four inches or more ending early Saturday.

That would translate to a cold rain, wet snow mix in portions of central Minnesota on Friday night with some accumulation possible by early Saturday morning. At this time it doesn't appear that there will be much accumulation about the Twin Cities region, but we reserve the opportunity to revise that by Thursday afternoon.

Here's how the accumulating snow probabilities pan out for more than four inches from late Friday night through Saturday, as the system churns eastward.

The models consensus track for the low pressue system is not ideally situated for a classic winter storm in Minnesota. But, again we are past winter.

Track the wintry weather potential on the Aberdeen NWS link.

Very dry air at low levels of the atmosphere in northeast and east central Minnesota may delay the onset of precipitation on Friday.

Bonus sunshine in the Twin Cities today helped to boost the temperatures into the lower 60s. Meanwhile a steady light rain fell in portions of the MInnesota River Valley around the New Ulm area.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Putting the pieces together

Posted at 6:52 AM on April 13, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Yes indeed, a cold front sliced through central MInnesota overnight. Temperatures will be some fifteen degrees cooler today in many locations. A narrow band of showers is creeping south through the southern third of the state, including the Metro area this morning.

Now we are working to put the puzzle pieces together for the much talked about weather system for Friday and Saturday.

Heres in the output of the NAM model for accumulated liquid precipitation for Friday ending at 7pm. The shaded yelllow is greater than a half inch of moisture.

Spring storms are a tough animal to deal with. Precipitation starting as snow in the middle layers of the atmosphere can change to liquid as it descends to ground level, sometimes in the last few hundred feet overhead. Then there is melting of the snow on the relatively mild ground. Throw in the filtered sunlight of mid April and it is a challenge to predict accumulations.

Here's the best guess at this time from NOAA's Environmental Prediction Center for snow to accumulate greater than four inches on Friday and Friday night.

One more piece you'd like to believe fits the center of the puzzle! Here's a critical layer where snow can sustain itself aloft at about five thousand feet. The blue region, banded over central Minnesota, is zero degrees Celsius; a zone that is favorable for snow production. Seasonally adjusted it would most likely be a mixture of cold rain and wet snow.

Let's get adjusted to today's return to seasonal temperatures. we'll have more on this weather-maker later today.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Flood 2011 Recap; Late-week snow chance fades?

Posted at 5:19 PM on April 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

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The floods of 2011 are still in progress and have caused problems in some areas. There have been two flood related deaths, numerous roads, parks and fields remain under water, especially near the Red River.

But it could have been so much worse.

Here's a recap of how the floods of 2011 came to pass, and why it appears we have dodged what could have been a disastrous record flood year...so far.

Loading the dice:

The dice were loaded as early as late last summer and fall for spring flooding in 2011.

Record September rains swelled many area rivers to record fall flood crests. September 2010 was the wettest on record for Minnesota, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

The statewide average rainfall was 6.47" in September.

Many southern Minnesota locations south of the Minnesota River were deluged with as much as 10" to 12" of rainfall last September.

As a result, many rivers including the Minnesota reached unprecedented record fall flood levels. In spite of an October dry spell, rivers were high, and soils largely saturated going into the winter freeze up in November.

Snow Blitz 2010-'11:

The winter of 2010-'11 began precisely on November 13th, 2010. That's the day the season's first big snow storm covered the Minnesota landscape with as much as a foot of snow...snow that would not disappear until early April in some areas.

The snow blitz continued at regular intervals with three massive storms to close out 2010, including the infamous "Domebuster 2010."

Story link: MyFoxTWINCITIES.com

The December "snopacolypse" the snowiest December on record at Twin Cities Airport.

2011: New year, same weather

The snow blitz continued into 2011. Storms continued to pile up snow on the landscape. By the time March rolled around it was the 5th snowiest winter on record for the Twin Cities.

All that snow contained a lot of water. Much of southern Minnesota had "snow water equivalent" of anywhere from 6" to 8"+ available for melting, and runoff into area rivers.

In late February, NWS hydrologists issued some alarming forecasts about the potential for record flood levels on many area rivers.

Southern Minnesota: How we dodged the bullet on record floods.

The warm up came in mid-March.

A string of mild days peaking in the 50s, and several nights above freezing started the snow melt.

As water gushed into area rivers, the rains came. Over an inch of rain fell on March 22nd. This "washed" additional snow cover and rain runoff rapidly into rivers. As a result, rovers were "shocked" into rapid rises, and the first flood crest was on, peaking in southern Minnesota rivers on March 28th & 29th.

It appears at the time that the rivers may have been headed for a record flood, but then came the cold.

Arctic air mass saves the day:

Behind the March 22-23 storm, a big sprawling arctic high pressure system settled in over Minnesota. For 6 days, overnight lows plunged into the teens, and daytime highs struggled to reach the freezing point.

The instant freeze locked up all water in snow cover and on the landscape in place, and almost instantly shut off any additional runoff into rivers. As a result, rivers peaked on March 28-29 and began to slowly fall, instead of rising to the record levels that would have likely occurred with milder temperatures and/or more rainfall.

That's how we dodged the record floods of 2011.

2nd Crest: A blessing in disguise?

Though southern rivers were falling, the flood gun was still partially loaded. Snow still on the ground packed plenty of water, and the potential for more snow, rain and a sudden warm up loomed.

Thankfully the weather cooperated, and a slow warm up created the perfect "time release" scenario for a "manageable" 2nd crest on southern Minnesota Rivers.

The fortunate fact that we able to "spread the water out" over two different high but manageable flood crests in 2011 may have saved us from what would have been a damaging all time flood of record on river in the south.

Red River: Not so lucky

In the north, the Red River watershed never really got in on the first big warm up in March. Temperatures remained cold enough, that most of the snow stayed intact in mid March.

As a result we are now seeing the effects of the higher "single crest" that was feared on southern Minnesota rivers this spring.

The Red River @ Fargo appears to have peaked at 38.75 feet on Saturday, below earlier forecasts of 39.5 to 40+ feet.

Still, the 39.75' crest at Fargo is the 4th highest flood of record for Fargo.

Historical Crests for Red River of the North at Fargo

(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 39.72 ft on 04/18/1997
(3) 39.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(4) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(5) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(6) 36.99 ft on 03/21/2010
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.41 ft on 04/02/1978
(11) 33.26 ft on 07/04/1975
(12) 30.88 ft on 06/09/2007
(13) 30.50 ft on 04/15/1965
(14) 30.16 ft on 03/22/1966
(15) 29.80 ft on 03/31/1907

It is interesting to note that 6 of the top 10 highest floods of record on the Red at Fargo have occurred since 1997.

All in all, it appears in many ways we dodged a bullet for the 2011 flood season.

Snow chances fade for Friday & Saturday?

A weak front may trigger a few rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

You may have heard talk of another major snowmageddon scenario for Friday & Saturday. The GFS model has been in "weather terrorist" mode again this week, portraying the possibility of heavy snow in southern Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

I've been watching the models with a skeptical eye, and I think my suspicions are coming to light.

The latest NAM (much more reliable model lately) run is doing about what I expected...tracking a weaker, warmer system further south.

At this point, it looks like mostly (light?) rain for southwest Minnesota Thursday. The rain showers may spread north into the metro Friday, and could possibly mix with some wet snow flakes late Friday night into early Saturday.

At this point I don't see any accumulations worth writing home about, but the system will still have to be watched.

Look for a return to cool sunshine with highs in the 40s Sunday.

Eau Calire County tornado damage Sunday:

Here's the damage survey from Sunday's storms in Eau Claire County.

PH

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Warmest in 5 months! Flood threat eases? Weekend storms?

Posted at 5:00 PM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Congratulations!

You just enjoyed the first 60 degree temp in nearly 5 months in the metro and southern Minnesota.

60s return. (Click to enlarge)

The last time the mercury hit 60 was on November 10th 2010 with a room temperature 68 degrees at MSP Airport.

The (really) cold season appears to be behind us now, and the overall weather pattern shifts into a spring like mode for the foreseeable future. There will still be some chilly days & nights, but hopefully any real snow threat is gone until fall. Hopefully.

Rain north & south:

High pressure is steering rain showers south of Minnesota into Iowa and Missouri. A few showers are sliding throughnorthern Minnesota where temps are cooler in the 50s.

Rivers easing a bit?

Sunshine, low humidity, and no rain or snow. That's just what the weather doctor ordered for swollen rivers in southern Minnesota.

The latest AHPS forecasts have tweaked some crest forecasts a little lower for this upcoming weekend.

The crest forecast for Mississippi @ St. Paul has been adjusted slightly downward...from 19.2' to 18.8' next Monday.

That would put the "2nd crest" below the 19.01' level of the first crest on 2/29/2011, which may now stand as the 8th highest flood of record on the Mississippi @ St. Paul.

The Red River @ Fargo is still forecast to reach 39.5' feet on Sunday, which would be the 3rd highest flood of record.

A success story?

Some perspective here.

There have been 2 flood related deaths from brave souls that gave their lives fighting the rising waters.

River levels this year are very high including top 5 "floods of record" in some areas. But flood protection is built to withstand these levels in most areas.

A good example is the Red, which crested higher in 2009 without major incident.

Barring a major dike failure or someother unknown event, most communties may be able to handle these flood levels without major incident. Knock on wood... but the "Floods of 2011" seem to be passing without major widespread problems.

If it stays that way... you have to give a lot of credit to a whole range of NWS, State and local employees and offifcals who have laid out and excecuted great flood plans.

People moan about "government" sometimes...you're watching good government at work this flood season saving dollars, property and probably lives.

Weekend forecast trends warmer...storms delayed?

It looks like the western storm that will affect our weekend weather is slowing down. While the overall solution for the weekend remains a bit unclear, there are some emerging weekend weather trends.

-Friday night & Saturday may be dry and warm. It's possible we could see our first 70s on Saturday.

-Any T-Storm threat may hold off until overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Midday Sunday may end up dry...with another chance of storms Sunday night?

-Overall model precip is tredning lighter...from the usually bloated early GFS runs of 1"+ down to (a more reasonable?) .30" to .60" range.

Again...the weather crystal ball is still murky for the weekend. Let's see if Friday's model runs provide any more clarity.

There is still a chance of a severe storm...but I'm growingly optimistic that the biggest threat may be south of Minnesota, where a major severe outbreak is possible Sunday in the central plains.

Overall it looks like a very nice, mild spring-like weekend with May temperature levels and a few showers or a T-Storm thrown in!

Stay tuned...

1st 60 today, 70 Saturday! Double crest, drought develops south

Posted at 9:29 AM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Drought, Flooding, La Nina, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

Lots to talk about today...here are a few headlines:

-First 60 degree reading of 2011 likely today in the metro

-"Green wave" reaches Kansas City, moving north

-Green shoots at weather lab

Now for some detail...

First 60 of 2011 today in the metro:

Where were you on November 10th?

That's the last time the mercury topped 60 degrees in the metro!

November 2010 featured a quick transition from late season warmth to sustained winter. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like we'll finally get there again today, making this the warmest day in nearly 5 months. Look for a few bank thermometers to flash as high as 64 degrees in the metro and much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Twins home opener: Sunny & 60s?

It appears the "weather lucky" Twins have won the opening day weather lottery at Target Field for the second straight year. A potential weather system is steering south Friday, and the result should favor sunshine and afternoon temps in the low 60s. First pitch 3:10pm Friday.

Play ball!

70 by Saturday?

As a deep low pressure trof spins up in the west, a southerly flow of mild air will persist and intensify through Saturday. The result should be the first 70 balmy degree temps of 2011 Saturday afternoon.

Sunday rain & thunder?

The western low will move east by Sunday into the Upper Midwest. It's early, but it looks like a band of showers and possible T-Storms will develop Sunday with the system. We could see a decent shot of rain (and possibly some thunder) in much of Minnesota Sunday, especially late.

Modles suggesting soaking rains possible Sunday.

Weekend severe outbreak south?

Further south, the atmosphere seems primed for a potential severe outbreak Saturday and especially Sunday.

Here's the verbage from SPC...

...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING REMAINS VERY LIKELY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

-"2nd crest" for rivers this weekend:

The much talked about "2nd crest" appears headed for southern Minnesota rivers this weekend. The crest forecasts are lower than anticipated a few days ago, and many rivers look to crest near or below the first crest observed in late March.

The Crow River @ Delano is forecast to crest at 19' this weekend. That's about 1 foot below the crest of 20' on 3/28/2011, which was the 4th highest flood of record for the Crow @ Delano.

The Mississippi River @ St. Paul is forecast to crest at 19.2' Monday. That's just above the 19.01' level recorded on 3/29/2011 which was the 8th highest flood of record @ St. Paul.

The flood story of 2011 will be remembered for the "double crest." The fact that rivers spread the runoff from near record winter snows over two crests two weeks apart may have saved many communities form record floods this year.

The cold snap in late March and early April, and lighter than average precipitation was indeed the "best case scenario" for mitigating flood levels in southern Minnesota rivers in the "Floods of 2011."

Red River: Not so lucky?

A higher, single crest appears likely on the Red River this year. The Red is rising steadily these days, and the latest forecast brings the river to 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday.

If the Red reaches 39.5' it will be the 3rd highest flood of record for the Red @ Fargo, behind only 2009 (40.84') and 1997 (39.72').

-Minnehaha Creek: Fastest flow in nearly 5 years!

I took a look at Minnehaha Creek Wednesday and saw it running swiftly through Minnetonka Mills. A further check of data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) shows the discharge from the Gray's Bay Dam is running at 250 CFS. That's the highest level since June 8, 2006, or nearly 5 years!

MCWD says flows above 150 CFS are "dangerous" for canoeing down Minnehaha Creek. 250 CFS has made Minnehaha Creek a raging little river! It's worth checking out if you can as it flows through the southwest metro communities into Minneapolis. A trip to Minnehaha Falls may make for some magnificent viewing in the next few days!

-Developing Midwest Drought:

The Weather Lab took a few days off and moved south last weekend. In my drive to Lawrence Kansas, I was surprised to see the rapid transition from rivers in flood in Minnesota to very low rivers levels with sand bars in Iowa.

Smoke filled the air Saturday as I observed numerous grass fires from southern Minnesota all the way into Missouri and Kansas.

Smoke filled skies and grass fires in Iowa & Missouri Saturday.

The latest drought monitor shows a growing drought threat in much of the Southern Plains, expanding into the Midwest.

Midwest drought can be common in La Nina years, and it's a developing trend we'll have to watch as we move toward summer.

-"Green Wave" reaches Kansas City:

I'll have more on this in coming days, but I wanted to mention that I observed the green wave heading north! Phenologists refer to the leading edge of the springtime green up as the so called "green wave" as it moves north each spring.

Grass is green, and leaves are bursting out on trees near and north of Kansas City now and the "wave" is moving north.

Flowering trees on the KU Campus in Lawrence, Kansas Monday.

I have heard that the green wave moves north at anywhere from 12 to 16 miles per day on average. It won't be long with temps in the 60s and 70s until we see trees and shrubs begin to burst out in southern Minnesota!

-Green "shoots" at Weather Lab:

The weather lab slopes north so we are usually late bloomers here. But I did observe tulips and daffodil shoots coming up today. A sure sign of spring at the Weather Lab, and a sure sign of hope for us all after a real Minnesota Winter!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

Red River rising at Grand Forks

Posted at 3:40 PM on April 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

We've covered the expected crest of between 39 and 41 feet on the Red River at Fargo/Moorhead. Here's the hydrograph projecting a crest of over 49 feet at Grand Forks.

If the river rises to this level it would be the fourth highest on record. The record crest is 54.35 feet set on April 22, 1997.

The Red River at Fargo is approaching major flood stage of 30 feet. It's about 28.5 feet this afternoon.

With the snowpack fading quickly the hydrologists are now focusing in on runoff finding its way from the tributaries and streams into the main stem rivers. Also, any additional rain later in the week may impact the forecast crest. Anticipated rainfall beyond the next twenty-four fours is not included in the river model run.

Here's the satellites eye view of upper Midwest in middle February. Note the gray line indicating the Minnesota River cutting through the snow field.

Here's a visible satellite image from this afternoon. Not much snowcover remains. But you can see the snow and ice on Lake Mille Lacs.

Here's a true sign of spring from my neighborhood this afternoon. I like this!

Hope springs eternal! First sixty degree reading of the year insight for the Twin Cities? Stay tuned.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Weekend Forecast: Models pull back on storm potential

Posted at 5:08 PM on April 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

We're inside 48 hours to our next Minnesota weathermaker, and the trend is for a warmer, weaker weather system starting Saturday night.

In fact, it's starting to look like this weekend will feel more like spring in southern Minnesota than the possible wintery blast that some forecast models were advertising earlier this week!

The system:

Low pressure will wind up and track through southern Minnesota this weekend.

Timing:

It looks like an initial shot of mixed rain/snow will move north through Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model trends indicate a warmer system with a significant "dry slot."

Behind the wave of rain, the dry slot may advance into southern Minnesota...brining a break in the rain and maybe even some sun on Sunday!!

700 mb (10,000 foot level) chart shows potential "dry slot" in southern Minnesota Sunday.

It's starting to look like Sunday may even evolve into a nice spring-like day in southern Minnesota, including the metro. Temperatures may even surge back into the 50s.

50s pushing north Sunday?

In the north, a mixed band of rain, sleet & snow could linger Sunday. There may be some accumulations, but snowfall totals look much lower than what the models were advertising a day ago.

The best chance for accumulating snow appears to be along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

Heavy snow potential shifts north.

Totals:

System rainfall totals look much lighter than previously forecast. The latest NAM is printing out closer to .25" with the initial rain shot Saturday night into early Sunday morning for the metro. The GFS is around .44" total.

That's much lower than the 1"+ rainfall that the GFS was touting as late as yesterday!

Lighter rainfall totals?

Bottom line:

There is still the potential for heavy snow along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

This weekend may actually feel more like spring in southern Minnesota...with some sun and highs in the 50s both Saturday & Sunday.

The weather will turn windy and colder behind the storm Monday. There is the potential for some (light) "wrap around" snow on the system's back side Monday.

This looks like yet another case of the GFS model "over forecasting" a big, scary snowstorm for Minnesota.

Enjoy the weekend...and stay tuned for any changes!

PH

Weekend storm trends rainy? Floods, gravity waves, ISS

Posted at 6:18 PM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Gravity waves, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Snow, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are trending toward a "mostly rainy" scenario for the metro with our incoming Sunday storm.

In the meantime, there's a mix of weather ahead...including a nice day Saturday!

Metro & greater Minnesota forecast:

Overnight & early Friday: Mix of rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes early Friday. Low near 33.

Friday PM: Trending sunnier & milder. High near 43. Light west wind.

Saturday: Best day of the weekend! Mostly sunny & milder. High near 50.

Sunday: Rain likely, possible heavy at times. Could start as wet snow, changing to all rain metro. Heavy wet snow possible Brainerd & Duluth. High near 47 metro, upper 30s north.

Monday: Windy. Rain changes to snow. Significant snow totals possible, especially north. Temps upper 30s & lower 40s.

Sunday rain?

The latest model trends support the notion of mostly rain Sunday from the Twin Cities south. There is some indication that it may be cold enough at the onset of precip early Sunday to be all snow...and maybe produce an inch or two before enough mild air surges north ahead of the low to change precip to all rain.

GFS brings precip Sunday.

Both the GFS & Euro models have shifted milder air north, supporting a mostly rain solution for Sunday. The latest GFS run is even hinting that mild air could remain in place much of Monday, keeping precip mostly rain from the metro south until late in the event Monday night.

Big rain totals?

The GFS is hinting at ran totals over .50" and maybe 1" or higher. Keep in mind the GFS has (wildly) over forecast rain/snow totals in the past few storms.

NAM painting heavy rainfall totals Sunday.

Heavy snow north?

Early indications are the rain snow line could set up close to Brainerd or Duluth. This could mean some heavy snow in these areas if it stays all snow. There is the potential for an early April snowstorm up north. There is also the chance mild air could shift even further north.

Bottom line? It's still too early to make any high probability predictions for potential snowfall totals at this point. You'll see some scary (and probably overblown) numbers thrown out...but early spring storms have a way of changing at the last minute.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

Rivers falling for now:

Most area rivers continue to fall late this week and into the weekend. In some areas river levels will drop 2 to 3 feet from crests earlier this week. This is good news, since it will give rivers some "breathing room" before the next wave of rain can potentially raise river levels again next week.

The "Renegade" at Valleyfair in Shakopee soaks in floodwaters.

You can get all the latest AHPS river info here, but some creative folks at MPR have also put together an excellent "flood aggregator" blog called "Floods '11" here. Check out the blog for some of the latest news related flood items & photos.

Anatomy of a "gravity wave"

We're learning more about mysterious "gravity waves" which are sometimes observed with severe weather outbreaks. These powerful, rolling atmospheric waves seem to supercharge thunderstorm clusters. Details from the UW Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog:

Mid-tropospheric gravity waves upwind of intense convection:

"McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 µm water vapor channel data (above; click image to play animation) showed a well-defined warm/dry "arc" feature (denoted by the brighter yellow color enhancement) just upwind of a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that was moving eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent Gulf Coast states on 30 March 2011. The MCS eventually produced a number of reports of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across northern Florida. Also note that a subtle signature of what appeared to be gravity waves could be seen within portions of this warm/dry arc feature (especially in the southern portion, over the Gulf of Mexico).

All of the above satellite evidence suggests that the gravity waves seen on the water vapor imagery were not surface-based, but were located at a higher altitude within the middle troposphere."

ISS sightings ahead:

Skies may be cloudy Friday morning, but Saturday should provide a good opportunity to see the brightly illuminated International Space Station (ISS).

ISS sightings for Minneapolis.

You can enter your zip code to get precise sighting times here.

Mysteries of thundersnow?

I don't know if we'll see or hear any "thundersnow" with the system over the weekend, but NASA has some interesting info on a "lucky" encounter with thundersnow here.

TWC's Jim Cantore's "thundersnow moment."

"Walt Petersen and Kevin Knupp have traveled far and wide to study winter storms. They never dreamed that the most extraordinary one they'd see - featuring freakish thundersnow, a 50-mile long lightning bolt, and almost a dozen gravity waves -- would erupt in their own back yards. The storm hit Huntsville, Alabama, on the evening of January 9th.

Eyewitness Steve Coulter described the night's events: "It was as if a wizard was hurling lightning behind a huge white curtain. The flashes, muted inside thick, low hanging clouds, glowed purplish blue, like light through a prism. And then the thunder rumbled deep and low. This was one of the most beautiful things I've ever experienced.'"

PH

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Light rain/snow today; Bigger storm Sunday/Monday!

Posted at 9:17 AM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Two distinct weathermakers are on the map and taking aim at Minnesota.

The first one is already here, with a mixed bag of generally light rain and snow showers. A weak low pressure system is squeezing out lighter precip amounts today/tonight.

Low pressure "trof" moving east today. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like precip totals will be around or under .25" by Friday in most areas.

Morning Twin Cities radar loop shows spotty rian snow mix.

-Current Twin Cities radar loop here.

With temperatures hovering around or above freezing from the ground to around 5,000 feet above ground today, expect a rain snow mix that could trend toward all snow tonight. With temps above freezing at ground level, it will be difficult for any snow that does fall to accumulate much more than a slushy coating.

NAM snowfall: Slushy coating north?

Friday & Saturday: Sun returns

Look for the sun to make a return by Friday afternoon in most areas. Saturday looks downright nice, with plenty of sun and highs pushing 50 Saturday afternoon.

Potent storm Sunday & Monday:

The next "big" weathermaker moves into the Upper Midwest Sunday.

A strong hybrid late winter-early spring low pressure system will track eastward out of the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest Sunday. It appears a band of precip will push north into SW Minnesota Sunday morning, and overrun the state Sunday.

GFS places surface low in Kansas and pushes heavy precip into Minnesota Sunday.

As I sift through model data this morning to try and see what's credible, It looks to this forecaster right now like enough mild air will push north that the system will produce mostly rain from the metro south Sunday. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times...and there are indications that rainfall totals could exceed .50" to 1+" in some areas of southern Minnesota Sunday.

Over an inch of liquid precip (some as snow) Sunday & Monday?

It appears cold enough for a transition to mostly snow just north of the metro and toward Fargo, Brainerd & Duluth Sunday. The snow could be heavy in central & northern Minnesota. At this time the heavy snow axis seems to be focused on and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line.

The GFS is cranking out some impressive (downright scary?) early snowfall numbers for Brainerd (20.2") & Duluth (19.6").

GFS: Some big numbers for Brainerd!

As the system moves by and cold air is drawn south Monday, it appears rain will change to snow statewide, including the greater Twin Cities metro. The snow could be heavy, and wind driven Monday.

Changeable forecast?

The Sunday-Monday system looks good (or bad) on paper at this point. I'd say there is a better than 50% chance we're going to get a potent storm. But keep in mind that the error margin 4 to5 days out for Midwest surface lows can often exceed the width of the heavy snow band.

Translation? A shift of 50 to 100 miles in the track of the surface low track or thermal profile of the storm can change rain to snow...and push the potential heavy snow band north or south in a hurry.

**There is some model data suggesting that the metro could fall within the heavy snow band Sunday & Monday. At this time, it is just too early to say with any credibility exactly where the heavy snow will fall, and who will get mostly rain Sunday.**

The storm system is well out over the north Pacific today, and will not enter the USA upper air (weather baloon) grid until Saturday. When it moves over the USA, the denser observation newtork may get a better handle on track & thermal profile.

Bottom line: There is the potential for a major hybrid winter/spring storm Sunday & Monday in the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota & Wisconsin. Plan accordingly.

Stay tuned for changes and updates as we get new model runs in the next few days.

PH

St. Paul: Anatomy of a flood crest

Posted at 8:41 AM on March 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

It appears the Mississippi River at St. Paul is at crest Wednesday morning.

The river has held steady near 19' for the past several hours.

Assuming the 19.1' level observed so far holds as the highest, it is the 8th highest flood of record for the Mississippi @ St. Paul.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986

Here's what today's flood crest looks like from river cams in St. Paul, Minnesota today.

Harrriet Island today: (Click all images to enlarge)

Compare today's image (above) to the shot taken Monday morning (below).

Raspberry Island today:

Shepard Road today:

Compare today's image (above) to the shot below from Monday morning taken about 48 hours ago.

Pretty interesting to watch in St. Paul, but so far thankfully relatively uneventful!

Latest AHPS river info here.

Watching our next rain/snow systems:

After a nice Wednesday it looks like our next weather system slides in Thursday. The temperature profile with the system looks to be borderline rain/snow for the metro and much of Minnesota as it passes through.

There could be a changeover to mostly snow Thursday night, and there is the potential for a slushy inch or so on mainly grassy areas for much of the metro. Best chance for 1" to 3" appears to be northeast of the Twin Cities.

Stronger system Sunday & Monday:

Forecast models appear to be coming into line for a more potent system Sunday & Monday.

Latest indications are it could be mostly rain Sunday from the metro south, with a changeover to (a few inches of ?) wet snow by Monday.

It's too early to tell how accurate the models are with this system yet, but the potential is there for a good soaker which could help rivers toward a second crest sometime later next week.

Forecasts still highly variable for rain/snow Thursday & Sunday.

Stay tuned...

PH

Forecasting blind: Models all over the place

Posted at 5:45 PM on March 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

Forrest Gump may have said it best. "Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get."

That's how meteorologists feel looking at each new forecast model run these days.

3" of snow Thursday or just a little slushy rain/snow mix? Heavy 1"+ rain & thunder Sunday? Heavy snow 6"+ Monday? Opps...storm tracking south, little or no rain or snow Sunday & Monday??

Various forecast model runs have painted all of the above scenarios over just the past two days, and it looks like we're not done yet!

Thursday system:

After a sunny & milder Wednesday, it looks like Thursday may feature an almost "Alberta Clipper" like system riding along in northwest flow aloft. This seemingly weak system looks to produce light precip from a visual perspective on the maps. Still, forecast model output insists the system has enough oomph to produce precip on the range of .25" to .75" depending on which run & model you want to believe.

Models all over the place on precip amounts. (Click to enlarge)

Rain or snow? Most of the model guidance would seem to suggest temperatures cold enough in the lowest mile of the atmosphere for snow Thursday. Still, temps should be close enough to freezing that daytime warming may cause some of the precip to mix. That may suggest a slushy mix of snow and rain Thursday.

How much?

Based on (the inconsistent) data so far, it looks like an inch or two of sluchy snow is possible Thursday and Thursday night into early Friday. If precip manages to stay all snow...there could be some 3" totals somewhere in the eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Bottom line:

Expect some precip Thursday &Thursday night into Friday morning. It will probably be slushy snow but could mix with rain at times. An inch or two of slushy accumulation is possible, but not certain. This forecast still has a relatively low degree of confidence since the models continue to change with little "run to run consistency."

The "smell test" looking at the maps says to me the idea of heavy precip with this system may be overdone.

Nice Saturday!

Saturday still looks like the nicest day of the weekend. It appears Minnesota will be in between weather systems, and it should be sunny and relatively mild with highs in the lower 50s possible!

Next system Sunday-Monday?

Here's where the forecast models are all over the map. Literally.

Overall tracks are trending south with this system. The latest GFS run still tracks a low close enough to Minnesota to produce soaking Sunday rains. The more southerly track also hints that colder air could come south...changing rain to possibly accumulating snow.

The European model suggests a more southerly track that could keep precip completely south of the metro.

Stay tuned...

PH

Big bad scary forecast models-not so scary today

Posted at 8:52 AM on March 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It takes restraint to be a weatherman sometimes.

Last night was one of those times. Let's hope the restraint is justified in the long run...

Last night's 0Z (evening) GFS model run painted a really scary picture for a big Sunday rain storm, followed by several inches of heavy wet snow Monday. Today? We'll it would be too extreme to say "poof" it's gone, but not by much.

GFS: From 6"+ snowfall down to 1" in next 5 days.

The overnight (06Z) GFS run is brining things back to reality a bit. It still spins up a low pressure system Saturday night into Sunday, but does not create the "bomb" fantasized by the earlier model run.

More like .6" liquid instead of 2"+??

Talk about a sigh of relief. Whew...

GFS having a bad month:

I don't verify numerical weather forecast models for a living... (Believe it or not there are people at NOAA who do that!) but I do use them everyday. It seems to me that the GFS (the primary U.S. medium range forecast model) has been out to lunch lately.

Remember the "mega storm" about 2-3 weeks ago that lead to some alarming headlines of 1'+ snow totals...only to end up as 1" at MSP Airport? Thank the GFS.

To say we've been seeing a high degree of "variability" in the GFS solutions in the 3-10 day range would be putting it kindly. More like wildly inaccurate solutions...often brewing up monster storms that turn out to be highly overblown.

I can't say why this is happening for sure. But seasonal variations usually lead to model trouble. The models have trouble gauging the transitions during spring and fall.

I can tell you this, it's no fun to be a forecaster staring down the barrel of a (fictional?) 1' to 2" heavy rain followed by a 6"+ snow event in early April...and having to swallow hard and not publish it in hopes that the model was just going through some growing pains.

Let's hope today's runs confirm the idea that we will get some rain Saturday night and Sunday...but a more manageable amount under an inch in most locations...followed by a few wet, wind driven snowflakes Monday on the colder backside of the low.

Rivers dropping fast:

It's good to see river levels dropping fast west of the metro today.

The Crow is down around 1 foot in Delano since Sunday.

The Minnesota is down 1.5 feet in Mankato, and is now receding in Henderson.

Yay!

The Minnesota is cresting today in Jordan.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest tomorrow in St. Paul well below the earlier threats of a flood rivaling the 1965 fiasco.

Two crests better than one?

There's plenty of talk about a "double crest" of 2nd crest for many area rivers this spring. This may be a good thing.

Moving 80"+ of winter snow melt down the rivers in two separate (but lower) surges may be a better outcome than having one big "mega crest" that could produce a flood of record for many river locations. Most flood protection can better handle two moderately high crests then one big flood that could top dikes & levees.

The double crests expected this spring may be a godsend.

Red River trouble?

The one exception to this scenario may be the Red River of the North. The big thaw never really hit the Red, and there's still plenty of water in snow to melt when things warm up later this week into the weekend. The Red may see one big crest...and the latest forecasts still put the chances high for a record flood on the Red at Fargo and other river points.

All quiet on the Red...for now.

We'll watch as that story unfolds over the next two weeks.

Southern Minnesota river outlook better?

It still looks to this forecaster like we may be able to thread the needle on avoiding record flood levels for the next week at least, even with some hint of river rises next week due to melting and additional rainfall.

Let's hope so.

Stay tuned...

Signs of spring?

Yes, the forecast modles are hinting at more 40s & 50s the next two weeks. But this guy really caught my eye this morning. A sure sign of spring?

Big fat robin sunning outside weather lab window Tuesday morning.

There's hope!

PH

Crow & Minnesota dropping fast; rising water in St. Paul

Posted at 5:17 PM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

The latest AHPS hydrographs show the Crow & Minnesota dropping fast west of the Twin Cities Monday.

Meanwhile downstream, the Mississippi is rising in St. Paul.

Check out these images today from the St. Paul city webcams.

Watch how the water rises and creeps over the (Shepard?) road near the
Mississippi Monday in these 3 images as the day rolls on.

9:40am

3:16pm

4:59pm

For a rundown of today's flood trends,check my morning post.

PH

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1st flood crest now; "best case" scenario this week?

Posted at 9:20 AM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

The first crest of the 2011 "flood wave" is moving into the west metro today.

-You can find all of the latest river levels and forecasts here.

-City of St. Paul flood info & rivercams here.

The Minnesota River has crested and is falling today at Morton, Mankato and Henderson.

The Crow crested Saturday at Mayer, and has fallen about 6" since then.

The Crow has reached a stable crest at Delano of 20' and is forecast to begin a slow fall today and may fall about 2 feet by Saturday. The 20' crest is the 4th highest flood of record (FOR) on the Crow at Delano, and is .3' below last year's crest reached on 3/21/2010.

Historical Crests for Crow River at Delano

(1) 23.25 ft on 04/14/1965
(2) 20.45 ft on 04/12/1969
(3) 20.30 ft on 03/21/2010
(4) 19.95 ft on 04/15/2001
(5) 19.25 ft on 04/08/1997

So far it seems the first wave of 2011 flood crests is passing without major incident. In fact, ice cream sales were reported to be brisk in Delano as flood gawkers came out to watch the flood in progress and frequented local shops & businesses.

-City of Delano Facebook page

-Live Delano web cam

Anatomy of an ice jam:

Check out this awesome video of an ice jam at the bridge in Delano Friday filmed by city crews!

"Bubble" moves downstream:

As the "bubble" or "wave" of water moves along on the Minnesota & Crow, rivers are still rising downstream.

Here are the forecasts for crests this week on the Minnesota.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 19.2' Wednesday at St. Paul. This would be the 8th highest FOR in St. Paul, about 1 foot above last year's crest.

St. Paul's Harriet Island takes a bath Monday.

"Best case" flood weather scenario this week?

Our Canadian high pressure and strong late March sun are combining to create what could be a best case weather scenario to keep rivers in check this week.

The air mass overhead is just perfect for nights below freezing to keep water in snow pack locked up. Strong sun wars days above freezing, allowing just a little runoff release into rivers during the day.

Looking ahead, temperatures will warm to near 50 by late week, and nights will be mostly above freezing late week. But most rivers in southern Minnesota will be falling by then. Though it looks like we may reach a 2nd crest next week on many rivers next week, overall levels may have dropped by as much as 2 feet or more by the weekend.

We're not out of the woods yet, and rivers are still running very high this week. But barring any major incidents or dike failures, we're beginning to see a scenario unfold where we just may be able to thread the eye of the needle when it comes to flooding over the next two weeks or so.

Precip chances:

There are two identifiable chances for precip over the next week.

The first one comes in Thursday, and may begin as (light?) snow before changing over to rain as milder air pushes north.

The second, and potentially more significant system looks to be mostly rain after an initial shot of snow..and rolls in Sunday.

It's early to pinpoint these systems, so stay tuned. If we get enough liquid precip (otherwise known as rain) with the Sunday system, it's possible we could see a second crest on rivers next week.

PH

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Weekend chill, then warmer. Flood updates & flood cams

Posted at 6:25 PM on March 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The last weekend of March will really feel like....the first weekend of March.

Canadian high pressure is bringing plenty of sunshine, at a price. The sun also comes with a side of chilly days and sub freezing nights. Temps are running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend.

Metro averages are 46/28 this weekend. Expect highs in the lower 30s and lows in the teens this weekend in the south, with highs in the 20s north and lows near zero far north.

Warm up still on tap:

The weather pattern still shows signs of moderation late next week. It looks like a slow climb into the 40s, then a boost into the 50s by next Friday.

50s by next Friday? (Click to enlarge)

Snow stays south?

It looks like the southward trend of possibly significant snow next Monday night & Tuesday is favored. The GFS appears to keep the system close enough to brush the metro with light snow Monday night, and maybe produce a few inches along the I-90 corridor. The European model steers everything way south, keeping Minnesota high & dry.

On the edge of southern precip next week?

This is still worth watching...stay tuned.

Flood updates: Better south now, Red River trouble later?

We've been (rightfully) focusing on rivers in southern Minnesota with this week's weather causing rapid river rises. As we head through the weekend the flood forecast continue to be optimistic for the south. A few flood warnings have even been dropped for now along the St. Croix.

-Latest southern Minnesota river levels and forecasts here.

The good news may be temporary. A warm up next week, additional snow melt and possibel future rain could lead to a second crest in southern minnesota Rivers in April. Here's the briefing from the NCRFC.

Red River trouble ahead?

Now that the cold snap has improved the short term outlook in the south, let's talk a little about the Red.

What was good for southern Minnesota this week did not help the longer term forecast for the Red River. MPR's Dan Gunderson details the latest here.

Last week's thaw did not melt much snow in the Red River watershed. This week's storm dumped another 10" of snow on top of already water laden snow cover.

The cold snap will delay flooding on the Red even more, but that opens the door to a potential rapid April warm up and potential for heavy rains.

Here are some detais from Friday's update on Red River flooding from the Grand Forks NWS.

Key points for the Red River Basin, from south to north:

- Risk along the Buffalo River has stayed steady, as recent snowfall has nearly equaled previous runoff.
- Risk along the MN Wild Rice at Hendrum is now nearly 50 percent of meeting or exceeding 1997's record [33.85 ft].
- Risk along the Sand Hill and Marsh Rivers is now around 30-40 percent of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Red Lake River has remained steady with Crookston having a 35 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels.
- Risks along the Snake and Two Rivers sub-basins have dropped by half a foot, while risk along the Roseau River has increased by about half a foot.

The bottom line for the Red is, the gun is still loaded so to speak. It's now all about weather in the next month, and how quickly or slowly the snow melts...and how much rain we add on top.

Flood cams:

Here are a few web cams to track river levels, and see what river conditions look like.

-City of ST. Paul webcams

-St. James Hotel web cam Red Wing

-Big Stone Minnesota River cam

-Northfiled River cam

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Breaking: Flood forecasts lowered again!

Posted at 7:39 PM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

Here's some potentially good news in a sea of bad weather this week.

Most river level forecasts have been revised lower in the next week.

The latest updates from the hydrologists at the NCRFC in Chanhassen have lowered river level forecasts for some river locations as much as 3.5 feet from forecasts earlier this week.

The changes are largely due to the latest round of cold weather this week. The cold "locks up" moisture by freezing it in place on the landscape, instead of creating the runoff that would happen with above freezing temps.

You can see all the latest river data here, but here are a few select hydrographs for some key river points in southern Minnesota.

Keep in mind that specific forecast river crest "numbers" and timing are best estimates within a wider overall forecast range. Forecasts will likey be modified in the coming days as new data is fed into hydrologic models.

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Forecast rise to 18.9' next week.
(Down 3.5 feet from earlier forecast!)

Crow River @ Delano: Forecast crest at 18.8' Saturday night.
(Down 1.7 feet from earlier forecast) Forecast to fall below 17 feet again next week!

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Forecast crest at 25' Saturday.
(Down 2 feet from forecast earlier this week.)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Forecast crest at 737.4' Sunday.
(Down 1.1 feet from forecast earlier this week)

Minnesota @ Jordan: Forecast crest at 32' Monday & Tuesday.
(Down 1 foot from earlier forecast)

Minnesota @ Shakopee: Forecast crest 715.8' Tuesday & Wednesday.
(Down 1.2 feet from earlier forecasts)

Minnesota @ Savage: Forecast crest at 713.4 Thursday.
(Down from 0.6' from earlier forecasts)

St. Criox @ Stillwater: Forecast rise to 87.1' Thursday.
(Down 0.7' from earlier forecasts)

Let's hope these latest forecasts reflect an overall trend that keeps floodwaters a little more in check the next few days.

Next snow Tuesday?

I know, I know. I hate to even mention it. But after what looks like a few much needed dry days through the weekend, it looks like our next chance of snow could be on the horizon.

Remember models can and often do change dramatically 5 days out.

The GFS insists on brining another potentially potent low pressure system into the Upper Midwest by next Monday night and Tuesday. Take a deep breath and look at the meteogram below.

(Click to enlarge...if you dare)

Yep. That's 8+ inches of snow on the chart for the 12z morning run, but less from the 18z afternoon run. Remember, we don't issue snowfall forecasts 5 days in advance and there is some indication that system could steer south. Also the GFS has grossly overforecast snow totals for the last few events. And the European model seems to suggest the southward track which could leave Minnesota high and (thankfully) dry next week.

But be aware that there is at least the possibility of significant snow next Tuesday.

Hang in there; it still looks warmer by next weekend!

PH

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Watching the flood: Cold may help prevent higher crests

Posted at 9:42 AM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The cold weather we're feeling may have a benefit. Slightly lower flood forecasts and river levels.

Before I launch into the potentially slightly good news, let's be clear about one thing. This is going to be (and already is) a major flood for many river locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin & North Dakota.

We've already lost one brave life fighting the rising waters. Roads are already closed or washed out. Thousands of hard working public employees and river residents are working hard building dikes and levees to protect us all from the rising water.

That said, there are some rays of hope regarding the flood scenario late this week.

1) Snow, not rain:

The fact that the second half of out Tuesday-Wednesday storm was snow and not rain is good news. Instead of running directly into area rivers, Wednesday's snow is still white sitting on your lawn. This is good news since we didn't add any more runoff once the rain changed to snow.

2) Sub freezing air:

We may be tempted to bemoan yet another frigid Canadian high pressure center pouring south into Minnesota after this rigorous winter. But that cold air we're feeling has a benefit. The sub-freezing air means the snow is still frozen on the ground, and not running into already swollen rivers.

Mostly sub freezing next few days. (Click to enlarge)

The freeze will "lock up" most of the potential runoff the next few days. This will give rivers a chance to move water downstream, without adding copious amounts of "new" runoff that would further spike river levels.

3) Dry forecast through Monday?

Our friendly neighborhood Canadian high pressure center will provide another benefit with regard to the flood scenario. It looks like it may steer another storm system to our south this weekend, and keep us dry through Monday.

That should give us 5 days to dry out without adding additional moisture to the flood scenario.

Latest flood forecasts: Levels down 1 to 2 feet!

While most rivers are still forecast to reach major flood stage this weekend or next week, the trend is encouraging.

Today's flood forecasts from the NCRFC lower crests between 1 and 2 feet for many area rivers. (Keep in mind the river level "number" is within a greater forecast "range" of possibility.)

Here's the latest:

Crow @ Delano: Projected crest at 19.1' Saturday-Sunday.
(Down from 20.5' or 1.4' lower!)

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Projected crest 26' Saturday.
(Down from 27' or 1' lower)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Projected crest 737.7' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 738.5')

Minnesota @ Jordan: Projected crest 32' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 33')

Minnesota @ Savage & Shakopee:
(Also down about 1 foot below previous crest forecast)

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Projected rise to 20.4' next Wednesday.
(Down from 22.4' or 2.4' lower than previous projection!)

St. Croix @ Stillwater: Projected rise to 86.13' next Wednesday.
(Down from 87.8' or 1.6 feet)

Next snow Tuesday?

The GFS is hinting that a low pressure system may track this way by late Monday night or Tuesday of next week. That could be our next shot of snow, unless the system steers south. It's way early to say this system will hit us for sure...just a possibility at this point.

Tuesday snow chance?

Cold lingers next week?

It looks like we may end up colder than average through next week with highs mostly in the 30s and sub freezing nights.

Warmer next weekend?

There is still some indication temps may rebound nicely the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. Highs in the 50s are possible, but we'll have to see if we get that warm as time evolves.

Potential rain (& snow?) week of April 4th & 5th?

Okay this is wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb. The GFS is hinting at the potential for significant rain possibly ending as snow during the April 4-5 time frame. Too early to make a call here (could be pure model fantasy at this point)...but the trend has been evident in more than one model run.

Double crest?

Add it all up, and you may have a "double crest" on many area rivers. One crest may occur this weekend or next week, and another could happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

This might not be a bad thing. It could keep overall river levels high for a longer period of time, but avoid a potentially higher flood crest in the process.

The downside of prolonged elevated river levels is that we're more vulnerable to a big storm that could dump heavy rain as the weeks go by.

Bottom line:

The cold is probably good news in the short run, but prolonged high river levels leave us vulnerable to flooding rains this spring.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Storm eases; 5th snowiest winter; rivers rise

Posted at 5:25 PM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Well that was interesting.

Our gnarly hybrid winter-spring storm has wound down, but not before blasting much of the Upper Midwest with a stark reminder that it is still March in Minnesota.

Snowiest winter in 27 years!

With 4.4" of fresh snow at MSP Airport this is now the 5th snowiest winter on record at MSP with 84.6" this season.

Here's the text from Twin Cities NWS:

"Another 4.4 inches of snow fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport March 22nd into the 23rd (as of 1:00pm on the 23rd), pushing the seasonal snowfall total past the 1991-1992 seasonal total and into 5th place on the all time list. The 2010-2011 snow season is now the snowiest season since the record was set during the 1983-1984 season. The current seasonal snowfall total stands at 84.6 inches. The average seasonal snowfall in the Twin Cities is 55.9 inches."

Snowfall totals:

In general snowfall totals ranged from 2.5" (Burnsville) to 6.5" (Coon Rapids) across the metro.

Snowfall totals between 6" and 12" are common through much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Here are some updated snowfall totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 315 PM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR
EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.20 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0800 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
9.00 3 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 1204 PM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1210 PM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
8.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.50 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 1140 AM
7.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0100 PM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 4 NW ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
6.50 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 1040 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 2 WSW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
6.00 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0600 AM
5.50 DAYTON MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
5.50 4 E ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0700 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.20 FOREST LAKE 5NE MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
5.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1207 PM
5.10 5 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1057 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
4.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0700 AM
4.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
4.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0100 PM
4.40 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0900 AM
4.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1120 AM
4.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
4.00 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.50 1 E ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.40 1 WNW ROCKFORD MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.00 2 SSE MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0830 AM
3.00 MINNEAPOLIS LWR ST ANTH MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
2.80 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1050 AM
2.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.50 2 NW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM

The heaviest snow band set up as expected between the metro and Duluth, but did shift slightly south at the last minute.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
415 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY
------ ----------------------- -- --------------
14.50 SARONA WI WASHBURN
14.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER
11.50 WINTER WI SAWYER
11.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.80 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.50 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER
9.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE
8.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS
8.00 WEBSTER WI BURNETT
7.50 BREEZY POINT MN CROW WING
7.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON
6.80 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING
5.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS
1.50 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON
0.40 DULUTH AIRPORT MN ST LOUIS

The late southward shift in the snowfall caused the snow to mostly miss Duluth, but not the wind. Check out some of the peak wind gusts from in and around the "Windy Twin Ports."

PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR

56 MPH DULUTH AIRPORT
51 MPH CLOQUET AIRPORT
47 MPH SUPERIOR AIRPORT
70 MPH BLATNIK BRIDGE/MNDOT

Forecast: Cold but quiet

A sprawling Canadian high pressure system will set up over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest for most of the next week. This will keep us mostly dry...but temps will be running 10+ degrees below average.

Warm up 8-9 days away?

There are signs of a major warm up by late next week. Temps could return to the 50s and maybe push 60 by the weekend of April 2-3.

Rivers rise:

Rivers are still on the rise, with many crests expected this weekend or next week.

-Latest flood forecasts here.

Welcome to Minnesota. Floods, heavy rain, lightning, thunder, sleet, heavy snow, and 70 mph winds...and that's just in one day!

PH

Storm continues: 3" to 6"+ Metro; heavier snow north

Posted at 9:25 AM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:45am:

5" snowfall now at Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven in west metro. Snow beginning to taper in intensity a bit in much of the metro.

Expect another 1" to 2" before snow fades later today.

Here are some updated snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

..SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 10 AM THIS MORNING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
5.00 5 NE FOREST WI ST. CROIX 0428 AM
4.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0655 AM
4.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0407 AM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.30 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
2.20 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0839 AM
2.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0825 AM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0655 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
927 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0830 AM
12.00 STONE LAKE WI WASHBURN 0746 AM
10.00 PINE CENTER MN CROW WING 0713 AM
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 0600 AM
STILL SNOWING
8.80 5 S BRUNO MN PINE 0900 AM
8.70 7 NW BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0924 AM
8.50 PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0842 AM
8.50 3 N PINE CITY MN PINE 0810 AM
8.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0701 AM
8.20 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0646 AM
8.00 5 E LEADER MN CASS 0848 AM
8.00 4 E HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0804 AM
8.00 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0804 AM
CORRECTION FROM EARLY REPORT.
8.00 SPOONER WI WASHBURN 0400 AM
REPORT FROM WASHBURN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
7.80 GULL LAKE MN CASS 0924 AM
7.50 WEBB LAKE WI BURNETT 0842 AM
7.50 FORT RIPLEY MN CROW WING 0823 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR. STILL SNOWING.
7.20 CLAM LAKE WI ASHLAND 0739 AM
7.00 1 E FINLAYSON MN PINE 0919 AM
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0608 AM
6.00 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0646 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0526 AM
MEASURED BY A SAWYER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
EMPLOYEE FROM HOME
3.50 3 NE NISSWA MN CROW WING 0836 AM
3.50 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0805 AM
3.50 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 0800 AM
3.00 WRENSHALL MN CARLTON 0844 AM
2.30 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0805 AM
2.00 MERCER WI IRON 0747 AM
1.50 SOUTH RANGE WI DOUGLAS 0828 AM
0.30 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0828 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1031 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW LAKE ITASCA 47.25N 95.21W
03/23/2011 M6.0 INCH CLEARWATER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW VERGAS 46.66N 95.80W
03/23/2011 M7.0 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW HILLSBORO 47.40N 97.06W
03/23/2011 M16.0 INCH TRAILL ND PUBLIC

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 NE HATTON 47.70N 97.37W
03/23/2011 M12.0 INCH GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

Update 9:30am:

Band of heavy snow now rotating into south metro. 2" in past 90 minutes at Weather Lab in Deephaven with moderate to heavy snow. Big fat high quality "stellar dendrites" now coming down and piling up fast.

Weather Lab total now 4" in Deephaven.

Did I put the deck dining table out too soon this year?

"Bosco the weather cat" checks out the snow.

**original post 8:36am**

You gotta hand it to our winter-spring hybrid storm, it's got staying power.

(Click to enlarge)

Snowfall continues in most on central and southern Minnesota today, with a little ice along the I-90 corridor.

Another day in weather paradise. Car off ramp on I-35 at I-494

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT Traffic cams & info

Here are some snowfall totals as of this morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW FALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...RECEIVED SINCE 430 AM THIS MORNING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM

10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM

10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM

9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM

9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM

8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM

8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM

8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM

7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM

7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM

7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM

6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM

6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM

5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM

5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM

5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM

5.00 5 NE FOREST WI ST. CROIX 0428 AM

4.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0655 AM

4.50 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0654 AM

4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM

4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM

4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM

3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM

3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM

3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM

3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0527 AM

2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM

2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM

2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM

2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0655 AM

2.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM

1.80 CHASKA MN CARVER 0715 AM

1.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0655 AM

1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0700 AM

1.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0722 AM

0.80 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0806 AM

0.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0527 AM

A late shift with this system brought the heavier snow band south a little sooner into parts of the metro, thus raising forecast snowfall totals for the Twin Cities into the 3" to 6"+ range.

The heavy snow band is still laying out as expected, generally along and north of the I-94 corridor from Fargo to Alex, Brainerd. Little Falls, St. Cloud, Milaca, and Hinckley to Rice Lake. 6" to 12"+ can be expected in these areas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
816 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 STONE LAKE WI WASHBURN 0746 AM
10.00 PINE CENTER MN CROW WING 0713 AM
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 0600 AM
STILL SNOWING
8.50 3 N PINE CITY MN PINE 0810 AM
8.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0701 AM
8.20 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0646 AM
8.00 4 E HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0804 AM
8.00 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0804 AM
CORRECTION FROM EARLY REPORT.
8.00 SPOONER WI WASHBURN 0400 AM
REPORT FROM WASHBURN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
7.20 CLAM LAKE WI ASHLAND 0739 AM
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0608 AM
6.00 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0646 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0526 AM
MEASURED BY A SAWYER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
EMPLOYEE FROM HOME
3.50 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0805 AM
3.50 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 0800 AM
2.30 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0805 AM
2.00 MERCER WI IRON 0747 AM

-Latest snowfall totals from Duluth NWS

Expect snowfall of varying intensity through this afternoon before the storm begins to wind down by tonight.

Travel conditions will remain difficult through today and into tonight.

Poor model performance?

Overall the forecast models have handled this storm relatively well, with one exception. The models have had trouble with potential snowfall totals for the Twin Cities.

Here's what the models got right:

-The timing and widespread nature of rainfall Tuesday.
-The notion of heavy rainfall 1"+ totals Tuesday.
-The placement of the heaviest snow band in between the metro and Duluth.
-The snow totals of 6" to 12"+ within the heavy snow band.

The models had trouble with the changeover from rain to snow in the metro, and cranked out some (hopefully!) wildly high snowfall totals for MSP Airport.

The GFS was cranking out 20.3" of snowfall at MSP Tuesday PM. That number came down to 5.6" overnight.

The NAM was cranking out 14.4" Tuesday night.

Numerical forecast models often have trouble with storms during seasonal transitions. This was a true "seat of the pants" forecast for the metro.

Quiet weather ahead:

After the siege of heavy rainfall and snow this week, it looks like we may catch a break Thursday and into the weekend.

A large area of chilly Canadian high pressure will likely steer a weekend storm south of Minnesota, and keep us dry for the most part. To be watched.

Flood updates:

-Lest we take our eye off the ball for too long, here are the latest flood updates.

Warm up ahead??

Next week looks cool... and more importantly mostly dry at this point. There are signs that a major warm up could move in late next week, and into the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. It looks like 50s could return in about 10 days.

Spring may be around the corner...and down the street just a little bit.

Stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

Winter storm warning now includes metro: 3" to 6"+?

Posted at 11:10 PM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

**A late southward shift in our powerful hybrid winter-spring storm has placed the Twin Cities metro in the potential heavy snow band overnight and Wednesday.

**I now expect the heavy snow band to shift south, and include much of the Twin Cities metro. Winter storm warnings have now been expanded to include the Twin Cities metro.

Winter storm warnings now include metro. (Click to enlarge)

**Expect wind driven heavy snowfall to commence after midnight, and continue through noon Wednesday.

**Travel will become increasingly difficult overnight, and I expect a major rush hour nightmare Wednesday morning with heavy snowfall in progress.

**The latest models runs tonight are indicating there could be 12 to 15 hours of snow between midnight and 3pm Wednesday.

**The 0Z (Tuesday evening) model runs are projecting some incredible snowfall totals now fo the metro. The NAM is cranking out 14.6" for MSP Airport. The GFS as much as 20". While these numbers may be too high, I now believe there is a decent chance of 3" to 6+" of snowfall in the Twin Cites by late Wednesday, with the highest totals in the north metro.

** There is one potential limiting factor to snowfall totals. A dry slot is working through the south metro on radar. If it lingers in place snowfall totals may be reduced. If the snow shifts south as expected, snowfall totals will increase.

NAM: Heavy snow band shifts south to include Twin Cities.

Potential for 10" in metro?? (Click to enlarge)

Bottom line: This is a drastic change and southward shift in the heavy snow band. Be prepared for a major winter storm in the metro overnight through most of Wednesday.

Expect heavy snow, northeast winds with blowing snow, and possible thundersnow. There may be a big snowfall gradient from south (lighter) to north (heavier) across the metro. Latest indications are a range of 3" to 6"+ may fall from south to north across the metro by Wednesday evening.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest hourly observations

I'll have the latest updates on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer starting at 7:45am.

Tornadoes slam Iowa:

As many as 15 tornadoes may have touched down in Iowa Tuesday on the warmer (and more violent) side of this storm.

Here are the preliminary reports form SPC.

PH

Rising rivers, rain, wind, snow and a blizzard

Posted at 5:29 PM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Rain, thunder, floods, high winds, heavy snow, and a blizzard. Just another day in Minnesota weather. I almost have to pinch myself and ask if what I'm seeing on the weather maps is real!

Let's take them one by one.

Flood Update:

-Latest river levels and forecasts here

I spoke with hydrologist Diane Cooper this afternoon from the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen. Here's the latest on how today's rains affected rivers and forecasts.

-This morning's rainfall was generally between .50" to 1" in most watersheds in southern Minnesota. That's almost twice the amount they had fed into the river forecast models in yesterday's forecast update. As a result (especially smaller) rivers rose more rapidly today. They have updated forecasts today to reflect the heavier overnight rainfall.

-NCRFC raised flood "categories" by one level for several river points. The complete text of today's latest flood warning is here.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FORTHE MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO.

* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED AT THIS
LEVEL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.3 FEET
ON MAR 29 2009.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.1 FEET BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.5 FEET
ON JUN 24 1993.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...WATER ENCROACHING ON STATE HIGHWAY 25
BETWEEN STATE HIGHWAY 7 AND CARVER COUNTY ROAD 122.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.8 FEET
ON MAR 20 2010.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS SERVING HOMES CLOSEST TO
RIVER MAY BEGIN TO BACK UP.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.1 FEET
ON JUN 26 1957.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED WING.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:23 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.1 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...RED WING MILLING COMPANY MAY EXPERIENCE
BASEMENT FLOODING AND BEGIN PUMPING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.4 FEET
ON APR 17 1951.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.1 FEET BY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6 FEET
ON APR 9 1969.

$$

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ST CROIX RIVER AT STILLWATER.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 79.4 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 87.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 88.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 89.0 FEET...THE CITY PARK IN BAYPORT BEGINS FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 87.9 FEET
ON JUN 28 1993.

$$

-NCRFC hydrologists raised the forecast levels of the following rivers by over 1 foot today. The updated forecasts now put several river points into "top 5 flood of record" territory.

Crow @ Delano

Forecast = 21.2' this weekend. (2nd highest flood of record)

Minnesota @ New Ulm, Mankato, Henderson, Shakopee

Mississippi @ St. Paul

The latest forecast for the increasingly mighty Mississippi at St. paul is for a level of 22.4 feet by next Tuesday...and still rising. This would be the 6th highest flood of record at St. Paul, and a full 4 feet above last year's crest on 3/24/2010!

-Diane also points out that, like meteorology, flood forecasting is not an exact science. Forecasting a flood crest a week out is like forecasting a snowstorm 7 days out. We may know it's going to snow, but the science does not allow us to accurately put out a forecast of say...12.5" a week in advance.

We give a range for snowfall forecasts, and hydrologists do the same for river levels. The "number" you see on hydrographs is just the best estimate of the specific level given available data at that point in time.

Next wave of precip moving through overnight.

Part II of our current storm is ramping up in Minnesota tonight. The next wave of rain and snow is here, and it still looks like the snowfall will be heavy overnight into Wednesday through eastern North Dakota, central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue.

Heavy snow band trending south?

There are some indications that the system's heavy snow band could shift 50 miles south overnight. This would place the southern edge of the heaviest snow closer to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities metro, and could increase snowfall overall in the Twin Cities.

Some models are leaning toward a 2" to 4" range for the metro by late Wednesday, with the potential for 6" in the far northern suburbs.

Bottom line: Rain changing to snow overnight. Heaviest snow band with a potential of 6" to 12"+ includes Fargo-Alex-Brainerd-St. Cloud-Hinckley-Mora-Duluth-Rice Lake.

Best forecast for metro appears to be 2" to 4" at this point, with heavier totals possible north metro. Expect a snowy rush hour Wednesday morning in the metro, with winter storm to blizzard conditions to the north.

Gale warnings and big waves on Superior:

Gale warnings are in effect for Lake Superior. Webcam here.

An angry Lake Superior rages in Duluth.

Stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

Bad to worse: Heavy rain triggers rapid river rises

Posted at 9:44 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Here we go again, and the timing couldn't have been worse.

The "nightmare scenario" for flood forecasters and river residents is in progress in southern Minnesota. The last thing you want to see as rivers rise is a shot of heavy rain, but that's exactly what we're getting today.

****Flood warnings are in effect for most all area rivers and creeks in southern Minnesota. If you live near a river that is expected to flood this week, all necessary preparations should be rushed to completion today. This is a serious situation, and major to near record flood levels may be observed in the next week.****

-Latest flood warnings here!

Our hybrid late winter-early spring storm is delivering widespread rain with embedded heavy rain. The rain is effectively washing much of the remaining snow cover away into rivers and streams, providing a sort of "shock" or turbo boost to runoff and raising river levels more rapidly in the process.

458 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

Here are some rainfall reports and totals as of early Tuesday morning:

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES LGT RAIN 36 34 93 E20G26 29.92F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.33;

ST PAUL LGT RAIN 36 33 89 E10G18 29.97F FOG

CRYSTAL RAIN 36 33 89 E12 N/A FOG

BLAINE HVY RAIN 36 34 93 E22G29 29.94F

EDEN PRAIRIE LGT RAIN 36 34 92 E15G25 29.90F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.45;

LAKEVILLE HVY RAIN 34 34 100 E15 29.89F WCI 24

As of 7:30 am the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven has recorded .73" of rainfall. There's an interesting note here. My tipping rain bucket is located in a spot where some melting snow form a nearby snow pile may have added to the rain total.

Here's why it may not matter...the effect of the rain washing the snow into the gauge is the same effect occurring in the landscape where snow cover is present. While my actual rainfall may have been slightly less...the "effective" rainfall and subsequent runoff of .73" is probably closer to what's occurring in the landscape as combined rainfall and snow melt washes into area streams and rivers today.

Here's a look at storm total rainfall estimates fort he Twin Cities doppler radar Tuesday morning. Note the one inch plus totals southwest of the metro, right over the Minnesota River Watershed.

Also note the heavy 2"+ totals northwest of the Metro near Big Lake, right over the Mississippi River watershed. This pretty much seals the fate for the Mississippi River, and forecasts for a potential crest next week at St. Paul continue to rise.

Smaller rivers respond with rapid rises today:

The overnight rains (and some ice jams) have already triggered measureable rises in smaller rivers today. Take a close look at the hydrographs below, and notice the river "spikes" as runoff quickly raises river levels. Also notice how the observed river levels outpace the latest river forecast trajectories for some rivers.

Mississippi level raised again:

All the extra water form the Crow, Minnehaha Creek & Minnesota River watersheds has to go somewhere, and it ends up in the Mississippi.

The latest hydrograph for the Mississippi in St. Paul raises the level of the river to 21.3 feet by Monday. This would be 3 feet higher than last year's crest of 18.38' on 3/24/10 which was the 8th highest flood of record.

This would be the 7th highest flood of record on the Mississippi at St. Paul, with a top 5 flood within reach.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986

More top 5 floods ahead?

This week's rain and snow melt may send several area rivers into "top 5" territory by this weekend or next week.

Rain to snow today into Wednesday:

The rain snow line is setting up pretty much as expected today between the metro and Duluth. As the system draws in colder air, the rain will change to snow tonight, and move south. I expect all snow in the metro by early Wednesday morning.

It still looks like the heavy snow band, and a dangerous winter storm with blizzard conditions, will set up from Brainerd to Duluth. A wind whipped 6" to 12"+ could fall in there areas by late Wednesday.

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect.

In the metro it all depends on when the snow changes over. If it's early tonight, we could see totals from 2" to 4" in the metro, heaviest north. If it's later, the 1" to 3" will be more likely.

NAM snowfall output paints heavy snow band through central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Either way, expect a transition to a few inches of wet slushy snow in the metro Wednesday.

Stay tuned as we track river rises in the coming days.

PH

Comment on this post

Duluth: Blizzard... Metro: Rain & thunder, then snow

Posted at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 12:15 am:

Radars show bands of showers and embedded T-Storms moving northeast through southern Minnesota. Expect heavy rain, lightning and thunder, and possible hail as the storms move through early this Tuesday morning.

The late model runs are cranking out an incredible 1.84" liquid precip for the Twin Cities with this storm. Most will fall as rain Tuesday, but indications are about .41" could fall as wet snow Wednesday. That could translate into 2" to 4" of wet slushy snow by late Wednesday in the metro.

Late night NAM Cobb method yields 2" to 4" snowfall totals for Metro Wednesday. (Click to enlarge)

Stay tuned.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 5:35pm Monday***

After a pretty quiet month, the March Lion is set to roar.

A hybrid winter/spring storm looks like it will roar the loudest from North Dakota through northern and central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. A combination of heavy snow and wind Tuesday night and Wednesday will slam cities and towns including Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, Brainerd, Duluth, Hinckley, Hayward and Rice Lake.

Winter storm warnings are flying for North Dakota, central and northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

The system:

Low pressure is spinning out of the Rockies headed for the Upper Midwest Tuesday. This a good track to bring heavy precip to Minnesota.

Low track across Iowa. (Click to enlarge all graphics)

Thermal profile:

The storm is forecast to track east through Iowa. Milder air with this hybrid winter/spring system will mean the initial waves of precip Tuesday will be mostly rain. As colder air filters in Tuesday night & Wednesday, precip will change over to snow from north to south.

It looks like most of the precip will fall as snow in Brainerd and Duluth (mixing with rain to start), and most will fall as rain ending with some wet snow in the metro.

Timing:

Expect waves of rain to move in after midnight into Tuesday morning and continue on and off as the changeover to snow occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday from north to south.

Thunder?

There could be enough rising air, what meteorologists like to call "upward vertical velocity"... to produce a few thunderstorms Tuesday, especially afternoon & evening.

Severe risk?

SPC has included southwest Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather. This is the first time this year any part of Minnesota has been included in a severe risk area.

Welcome to spring.

Rain & Snowfall totals:

The system should deliver widespread rain to southern Minnesota and heavy snow up north.

The NAM model is cranking out as much as 1'+ for the metro and points north.

The band of heaviest snow appears to be setting up from Fargo through Brainerd to Duluth. It looks like 6" to 12" of wet wind driven snow may fall in the heavy snow band. Areas around Duluth could see 12"+!

At this point, I think 1" to 3" of wet slushy snow could fall in the metro Wednesday. The best chance fo 3" will be in the norhtern suburbs.

Flood impacts:

An inch or more of rainfall will have an impact on rising rivers. NWS Hydrology has factored this in to the latest set of river forecasts Monday, and the latest forecasts are here.

Overall most river forecasts were raised between 1 and 2 feet later this week into the weekend.

Stay tuned as our next storm moves into Minnesota.

PH

Flood Update: River forecasts raised 1 to 2 feet

Posted at 3:54 PM on March 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Update 4pm:

Updated river forecasts from NCRFC are in reflecting this week's anticipated rain & snow. The bottom line is that hydrologists have raised (most but not all) river forecast levels about 1.5 feet for most rivers by this weekend.

See the updated forecasts here.

PH

***Original post 9:03 am***

They're busy crunching some new numbers today at the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen.

As a new storm system rolls into the forecast for Minnesota Tuesday & Wednesday, the potential for heavy rain and snow will likely send river crest forecasts higher. River forecasts through the weekend did not include the latest batch of precipitation.

Wintery weather makes a comeback this week. (Click to enlarge)

The system will bring rain late tonight into Tuesday morning. Forecast models are cranking out some heavy rain totals with the system, over an inch in some cases. The latest NAM run wrings out 1.23" of liquid precip for the metro, most of which falls as rain.

NAM wrings out .50" to 1"+ precip through Wednesday.

As the system pulls in colder air Tuesday night, rain will change to a wind-driven wet snow from north to south. Winter storm watches are flying for most of the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. A blizzard watch has been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

Watches posted. (Click to enlarge)

After a rainy Tuesday that could include bouts of thundery rain, It looks like the metro will see a changeover to wet snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. It's still a little early to pinpoint Metro & southern Minnesota snowfall totals with this developing system, but the potential for a few inches of slushy accumulation is there early Wednesday.

NAM snowfall pastes northern Minnesota with 6"+ but keeps heavy snow north of metro...for now.

Bottom line: Expect rain Tuesday, possibly heavy totals of 1" in some places... changing to snow by Wednesday.

Flood forecast changes:

Heavy rainfall totals of 1" will make for some changes in river forecasts this week. As you might guess, most of those changes should be to raise projected river levels later this week.

If the models are right and rainfall totals 1" or more, that could send a "shock wave" of water with rapid runoff into rivers in southern Minnesota. It may also serve to "flush" some of the moisture still lingering in soils above rivers quickly into river systems, causing more rapidly rising river levels this week.

Here are the main things to watch with regard to river levels and forecasts as this critical week unfolds.

-All creeks & rivers in southern Minnesota are on the rise this week.

-Watch for (rapidly?) changing flood forecasts this week form the NCRFC.

While all rivers will rise this week, the biggies to keep an eye on this week seem to be: These forecasts do NOT include rainfall this week, which could push levels even higher.

The Crow River @ Delano:

The Crow is forecast to rise to "major" flood stage of 18.6' by this weekend. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Crow @ Delano -Current forecast 18.6'

24.95 Water begins to flow over the dike on the west side of town.
21.85 Water may begin to flow over the bridge on Bridge Street.
21.05 Water begins to flow over the dike on the east side of the river at Second Street.
20.3 Water seeps through east bank along N River Street/CR 17.
18.95 Sanitary sewers may need plugging at this stage to prevent water from backing up into homes.
18.35 The southwest part of Delano begins to experience flooding.
16.85 Storms sewers may need plugging to prevent river water from backing up into city streets.
15.35 Water begins encroaching on Mill Avenue north of Watertown.
14.85 Minor basement flooding may begin to occur at homes closest to the river.
13.85 Carver County Road 123 between Mayer and Watertown becomes flooded.

The Cottonwood @ New Ulm:

The Cottonwood is also forecast to hit "major" flood stage of 17.1' by Thursday. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Cottonwood @ New Ulm: -Current Forecast 17.1'

13 Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood Street west of the river.
11 Flood waters begin to impact low lying areas...and some roads along the river.

The Minnesota River @ Mankato, Henderson, Jordan, Shakopee & Savage.

Forecasts going into the weekend had the Minnesota rising to moderate flood stage at locations between Mankato & the Twin Cities.

The forecast river levels (as of early Monday am) would mean top a 10 flood of record on the Minnesota including:

Mankato: 25.5' (10th highest)
Henderson: 737.6' (7th highest)
Jordan: 31.5' (9th highest)
Shakopee: 715.3' (8th highest)
Savage: 711.7' (8th highest)

Mississippi River:

The Minnesota feeds into the Mississippi, so any adjustments for higher river levels this week on the Minnesota will affect flow (and river levels) into the mighty Misssissippi.

Minnehaha Creek:

One (underreported?) aspect of this year's flood threat is the potential for rising waters and urban flooding on Minnehaha Creek and other metro creeks. The Minnehaha Creek Watershed District has a nifty flood map that shows potential for flood along the creek's path this spring.

(Click to enlarge)

You can enter an address and check out flood potential for you neighborhood here.

You can sign up for flood updates in Carver County here.

Keep an eye out here for the latest changes in river flood forecasts as we move into this week.

PH

Flood update encouraging; "Supermoon" shines bright!

Posted at 5:20 PM on March 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It may be too early to breathe in a big sigh of relief just yet, but the latest batch of river forecasts from NWS Friday give us room to breathe a bit easier.

The latest NWS flood updates are out, and the news is encouraging.

Friday's river forecasts stop well short of the threshold of record river levels on most area rivers. While many rivers approach "major" flood stage by late next week, the previous forecasts of record levels appear to be unlikely, at least for now.

It's still relatively early in the process, and the amount of rain over the weekend combined with the potential for rain and or snow next week could raise the flood threat. Flood watches and warnings have been issued for many area rivers.

Here are the latest forecasts for some major river points in southern Minnesota as of Friday afternoon. (Specific forecasts for the Red River have not been issued yet)

Mississippi River at St. Paul: Friday's forecast timeline has the river still rising through next Friday to a level of 15.1 feet. This forecast keeps the level 10'+ short of record territory, and well below last year's crest of 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010.

(Click all images to enlarge)

The previous forecast had a 48% chance of reaching the record flood level of 26.40 ft reached on 04/16/1965. Friday's forecast seems to suggest the Mississippi will plateau well short of that territory this spring.

Here are the top 15 crests for the Mississippi at St. Paul. The current forecast for next Friday would tie for the 13th highest crest on record.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(11) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957
(12) 15.45 ft on 05/04/1975
(13) 15.10 ft on 04/10/1994
(14) 14.51 ft on 06/23/2001
(15) 14.07 ft on 06/26/1984

Still the river may continue to rise well into April. Longer range outlooks show increasing chances for higher river levels the first two weeks of April. (Note: This simualtion was last updated as of February 28th.)

Minnesota River:

With the exception of Henderson, most river forecast points along the Minnesota appear to be encouraging.

Crow River at Delano:

This is some good news. Previous forecast for the Crow indicated a 35% chance of reaching record flood stage for the Crow in Delano.

St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The forecast of 84 feet at Stillwater by next Friday is good news. Though the River is still rising at that point, the lift bridge isn't closed until the river reaches 86 feet.

Bottom line: While flooding is expected as early as next week, the latest batch of river forecasts do not bring river levels to near record levels in most locations.

Lighter than average precipitation in the first half of March has helped lower porjected river crests. Only .33" of precip has fallen at MSP Airport in March.

Weekend shot of rain:

Rain and or snow in the next week will have an impact on rivers, but the effect is unclear at this time.

It looks like our next shot of rain will roll in Saturday night. This will be a significant rain, with forecast modles cranking out anywhere from around .25" to as much as .80" in one or two shots Saturday night into Sunday.

Stay tuned for further updates as we head into early next week.

"Super" bad moon on the rise:

Some call it the "Supermoon." You just may call it brighter than usual. The closest full moon (perigee) to earth in 18 years will mean the full moon appears 14% bigger and 30% brighter this weekend than when the moon is farther away (apogee).

We may not see the full moon on Saturday night with clouds and rain, but check it out tonight and Sunday evening if you can!

PH

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Why flood gauges vary locally

Posted at 6:33 PM on March 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

As we head into flood season in the next week, you may be confused by some of the river levels you hear on area rivers. You're not alone.

Here's an example.

On the Minnesota River at Granite Falls "flood stage" is 888 feet.

Just up the river in Montevideo, flood stage is 14 feet.

Why the difference?

At Granite Falls the gauge is based on elevation above sea level. In Montevideo, it's based on what's called a "zero point" somewhere on the river locally. I know, I don't get it either.

The best way I've heard this explained is that through the years, gauges have been added at different locations using different local measurements to set the flood gauge. Historically gauges have been different, and local control has been the deciding factor in how a gauge reads at any location.

My partner in weather crime (and former Twin Cities NWS Chief) Craig Edwards tells me that many years ago there was an effort to standardize river gauges nationwide. That effort fell to the usual politics and red tape surrounding the cost of replacing many of the river gauges, and with local officials wanting to keep things as they were because they felt their local residents understood that current system.

I'll be posting more info in the coming days to help with interpreting river levels and forecasts. In the mean time, here's a guide to hydrologic information on the web from NOAA.

You can access the latest river hydrographs and flood forecasts for southern Minnesota rivers here.

Red River forecasts info is here.

PH

NWS issues new river forecasts; Snow melt "microclimates"

Posted at 4:25 PM on March 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Winter/spring 2011

The NWS issued some updated river forecasts Wednesday.

River Forecasts have been issued for Redwood, Cottonwood, South Fork of the Crow, Crow and Chippewa Rivers.

According to the North Central River Forecast Center, there is still too much uncertainty to issue forecasts for other rivers in Minnesota.

From NWS today:

"Too much uncertainty still exists for the Long Prairie, Sauk, Minnesota, Mississippi and St Croix for river forecasts to be issued at this time. As certainty of the snow melt increases, river level forecasts may be issued later this week and into the weekend."

The latest hydrological outlook gives the latest information on other area rivers.

It's interesting to me to note that while some of today's forecasts indicate major flooding by this weekend, I do not see any forecast of floods in "record" territory yet.

Stay tuned for updates as hydrologists fine tune predictions in the coming days.

Snow melt "microclimates:"

I know, only a "true" weather geek would even think this is cool.

It is interesting to look around the landscape these days and see the wide variations in snow cover left on the ground. In one neighborhood there is bare grass showing up now, and in others such as near Huttner the Weather Lab, there is still deep snow.

Weather Lab still sporting 14.5" snow depth in the back yard! For comparison MSP Airport reported 5" Wednesday morning.

There are a couple of major factors that determine how quickly snow melts in your yard.

Directional slope:

The directional slope of land determines how quickly snow melts in spring. If the slope faces south or southwest, the sun's rays strike the land surface more directly, and more incoming solar energy is available to melt snow.

If your yard slopes north (like the Huttner Weather Lab) the reflective nature of snow (high albedo) and the effectively lower sun angle has trouble melting snow.

Deep snow in Weather Lab back yard. Grass by April I hope!

Tree cover:

Density and type of tree cover makes a difference in the rate of snow melt. Dense tree cover blocks solar energy from the sun's rays, and leads to slower melting.

Coniferous trees have a bigger effect shading the north side, but can create faster melting through the "pine tree effect" on the south side by bouncing the suns rays and warming those areas more quickly. Ever notice how the south side of pine trees is snow free first?

A little "pine tree effect" on the west side of the Weather Lab spruce trees.

Bottom line?

If your yard faces south and you have few trees, or pine trees on the north side of your yard, you're going to see the grass a lot sooner.

If like the Weather Lab you slope north and have dense tree cover, it still looks like mid winter in your back yard.

PH

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Snow Cover: Going ... going ... gone?

Posted at 5:47 PM on March 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Winter/spring 2011

It's amazing what a little rain can do.

Did you feel it? Did you hear the pitter patter? Did you feel the raindrops on your face? Did you hear sound of liquid water splashing on the street?

Tuesday's rain was like water therapy for winter weary Minnesotans. With showers and temps in the 40s it actually looked, sounded and felt like spring in Minnesota.

Narrow band of showers sails east.

While totals were light (MSP Airport .02"), the effect on snow cover was noticeable. We started the day with 6" on the ground at MSP Airport, that number will drop daily this week, and it looks like we'll be left with a few dirty snow piles by this weekend.

More rain on the way:

Tuesday's rain was the first bout this week. We could see a few sprinkles late Wednesday and it looks like another shot of light rain may slide through Thursday.

I'm still watching the potential for a bigger rainmaker Saturday night into early Sunday. This system is likely to produce more widespread steady rainfall, and early indications are rainfall totals could add up to .50" or more.

The GFS is hinting at another potential rainmaker (snow north?) next Tuesday.

With 50s this week, and nights above freezing our snowcover should pretty much be toast after the rain Sunday.

Good riddance I say!

Flood update Thursday:

I posted this morning about the latest flood risk.

I picked up some signals that the hydrologists at the NCRFC are busy crunching new numbers that factor in this week's warm-up and rainfall forecasts. Another flood outlook is due out Thursday, and there may be some significant changes to river forecasts.

Rivers slightly responding to snow melt Tuesday??

Stay tuned!

PH

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Instant spring at Target Field; flood threat; Japan fallout

Posted at 7:55 AM on March 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Target Field, Winter/spring 2011

Let's start with the good news!

Here's a lighter note in a world of troubling news to start your Tuesday.

Spring began at Target Field Monday!

I had a chance to chat with Minnesota Twins Head Groundkeeper Larry DiVito at Monday evening's AMS meeting in the Champion's Club at Target Field. Larry and his crew peeled off the agricultural fabric used to cover the turf at TF Monday.

"Winter began November 13th, and it ended today" said DiVito.

Larry has had the underground heaters turned on all winter long at TF. With the heaters set in the upper 30s and the tarp and snow cover on top of the field, the turf never really froze this winter at TF. These days, Larry cranks up the heaters to a comfy 52 degrees about 10" under the turf.

Larry and his crew are working this week to get Target Field turf ready for baseball. Now there's a sure sign of spring in Minnesota!

Edwards dazzles AMS meeting:

My partner in weather crime, MPR & Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards put on a good show Monday night at the AMS Twin Cities Chapter meeting. Craig eloquently described the first season of providing weather support at Target Field, including some close calls and highlights. I had the pleasure of giving last months' AMS talk about weather coverage at MPR, and this was Craig's turn.

Edwards works the crowd in the Champion's Club at Target Field.

Fortunately the Twins lead charmed weather lives in 2010, seeming to dodge nearly every storm with only 2 games significantly affected by rain. Let's hope the good luck continues for fans in 2011! My weather "spidey senses" tell me the "law of weather averages" will make Craig a busier weather beaver at Target Field in 2011.

Gratuitous Target Field factoid:

Did you know there are 4.5 miles of "beer pipe" running through Target Field to pump beer to the concessions stands? I didn't either, until last night. I happened to snap a picture of the lines running high above the interior walkway heading the Target Field Weather Lab. (FYI, this was a "dry" AMS meeting.)

Talk about underground "utilities." Anyone besides me thirsty?

"Beer pipe" running under Target Field.

Warming trend kicks into high gear:

You'll really start to notice it's feeling more like spring today and the rest of this week. Southerly winds will prevail most of this week and into next week. With the exception of a minor speed bump on Friday, it looks like we will see a string of days in the 40s and 50s over the next week.

Warm week ahead. (Click to enlarge)

It looks like temperatures in much of Minnesota have a shot at 50 Wednesday, Thursday and again over the weekend into early next week. Temps will be running about 10 to 15 degrees above average this week. 50 is the average high in the metro for April 3rd!

Milder nights too!

One feature of this warm up is that temperatures may stay at or above freezing starting early Wednesday and lasting right into next week in much of Minnesota!

Rapid snow melt:

The string of days in the 40s and 50s and above freezing nights mean the pace of snow melt is going to increase rapidly this week. Several inches of snow will melt in the next week, and many locations could be down to dirty piles of snow by Sunday.

One thing to remember is that the snow that's left is nearly "glaciated" in many spots. That is to say, a winter's worth of water and ice is compresses and still locked up in the bottom few inches of the snow. That makes the last few inches the toughest to melt. (Kind of like losing those last few pounds?)

Flood threat grows:

As the snow melts, water will increase runoff into area rivers and streams this week. The hydrologists at the NCRFC recognize this, and they are in the process of running new models to gauge the increasing flood threat this week.

There is still a good 4" to 6"+ snow water equivalent (SWE) in the snow in the Minnesota River watershed.

4" to 6"+ snow water content in Minnesota River watershed.

Here's the latest flood outlook from NWS.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
452 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

PLEASE REFERENCE THE NWS TWIN CITIES RIVER WEBSITE AT
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX

"Rain shock" ahead?

The big wild card in spring flooding is always heavy rain. There are signs that after a couple of chances for light rain this week, (Today & Wednesday) a stronger rain system may move in late Saturday night and Sunday.

Some models are printing out the potential for as much as 1" of rain with this warm, spring like system.

Heavy rain Sunday? (Click to enlarge)

If we get an inch of rain on top of frozen ground following a week of rapid snow melt, that may "flush" copious amounts of runoff into area rivers & creeks. The resulting "rain shock" can send rivers rapidly higher, and we could quickly transition into rapidly rising rivers with the potential for ice jams and with rapidly fluctuating river levels in the next week to 10 days.

Stay tuned as the flood threat could grow quickly in the next week.

A bad wind in Japan:

Weather and wind conditions seem to have taken an unfavorable turn in Japan.

Let me be the first to say I don't think we really have hard information as to exactly what levels of radiation may or may not be escaping into the atmosphere from the reactors in Fukushima. But news reports of detectable radiation in Tokyo are not good.

At this point in time, we just don't know what the scope of the disaster will eventually be.

What we do know from the Japan Meteorological Agency is that surface winds had been blowing out to seas, but have turned inland over the past day or so. A low pressure system off Japan's east coast has turned winds into a more easterly direction, and that may be carrying radiation emissions in the lowest mile of the atmosphere inland to the west and southwest to more populated areas.

Surface map shows low off Japan's east coast. (Click to enlarge)

Surface winds tredning "inland." (Click for bigger image)

Could emissions reach the USA?

In the event of a bigger release of radiation, some are asking if radioactivity could reach the USA. The short answer is yes. The best answer may be, it depends.

There is an entire sub-science of meteorology called "plume dispersion modeling." I used to work for a firm in Chicago that did environmental consulting in plume dispersion for the nuclear power industry.

In fact, part of my responsibility was to issue detailed wind trajectory forecasts for a nuke plant. That forecast (wind direction and speed) would be used in case of a nuclear emergency such as we are witnessing in Japan. I lived 8 miles from that plant. Talk about a humbling forecast responsibility that hit close to home!

In the event large amounts of radiation were released in Japan above 10,000 feet or so, the prevailing westerly winds would carry the "plume" eastward across the Pacific Ocean toward the USA.

The good news is the plume would tend to disperse along the way. The bad news is the radioactive isotopes don't decay quickly, and there could be fallout in the USA, especially from rain. I am not a plume dispersion modeler, and therefore unable to make specific forecasts of what might happen in the event of a large release of radiation.

But I can tell you this, people a lot smarter than me will be working on that question.

Bottom line? While there is no need for any action or panic in the USA, the situation is worth keeping an eye on.

Stay tuned.

PH

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Trending toward spring! 50's next week?

Posted at 2:55 PM on March 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

A chilly weekend is about to yield to a spring like weather pattern.

Temperatures trends start upward in the next week, and it looks like upper 40s and 50s are a strong possibility by mid to late week.

Models hinting at a string of days in the 40s & 50s.

Noteworthy is that temperatures may not fall much below freezing for a few nights in the next week. This should really accelerate snow melt with nearly 24 hours of above freezing temps.

Rain event March 22 & 23rd?

It's too early to pinpoint, but the medium range forecast modles have been consistent with the possibility of a mostly rain event around March 22nd & 23rd.

The bottom line is, the atmosphere appears to have made the transition from winter to spring. It's going to feel more like spring than winter around here for most of the next two weeks!

I'm off through Monday. Have a great weekend! See you again Tuesday.

PH

Warmer weather ahead! Storm conference March 22-23rd

Posted at 5:10 PM on March 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

The maps are in and they all agree on one thing. It's going to get warmer in Minnesota over the next week.

The only questions appear to be...how warm? And how soon?

Modles: 40s and 50s ahead? (click to enlarge)

Jet stream changes: "Zonal flow"

For meteorologists and weather geeks, the term "zonal flow" means milder air for Minnesota in winter and spring. Our persistent northwest flow that dealt cold air form Canada all winter is finally giving way to a more westerly flow. That means Pacific air masses can ride over the Rockies, warm and dry as they move east into Minnesota.

In a perfect weather world, every day with sun and southerly breezes would be at least in the 40s this time of year, with some days shooting into the 50s. There are two big factors that limit warm ups in spring are snow cover on the ground (air mass modification) and low clouds and fog that tend to form as we start melting snow.

We'll have to keep an eye out for these main "forecast busters" in the next two weeks until (hopefully) all the snow is gone. And of course, we're still not out of the woods yet when it come to the possibility of additional snow. After all...it is still March for 3 more weeks and it can snow in April! (Gulp!)

Northern Plains Convective Workshop March 22-23

If you're involved in weather planning at any level or just a true weather geek, you'll want to check out the 15th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop at the 3M Auditorium on the University of St. Thomas Minneapolis campus March 22-23, 2011.

I was sad to have to pass on the invitation to speak at this years event... there are a host of great speakers and topics at the workshop.

You can find the agenda and registration info here. My partner in weather crime, Minnesota Twins and MPR meteorologist Craig Edwards will present a talk on how weather support is done at Target Field for the Twins baseball games.

Come check out the action at UST march 22-23rd.

PH

Milder days ahead: Flood updates, La Nina fades

Posted at 9:24 AM on March 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, La Nina, Winter/spring 2011

Old man winter has been a grumpy old bear this year, but he's showing signs of easing up the next few days.

A change in the jet stream to a more "zonal" flow (west to east) will bring increasingly mild Pacific air masses to the Upper Midwest in the next week.

Modles indicate several days in the 40s ahead. (Click to enlarge)

One critical factor in the magnitude of our warming trend over the next week is the amount of snow cover in Iowa. There are only a couple of inches in most of Iowa, and much of that may be gone later today or on Friday.

Snow depth: Bare ground to the south!

As warmer southerly breezes blow in from Iowa over the next week, they will have less time to "modify" over the snow covered areas of southern Minnesota. That will mean increasingly milder air in the days to come on days when we have a south wind. The first "test" of that theory will be Friday, when a milder southerly breeze will blow in from Iowa.

How warm will it go? The forecast NAM 850 millibar (5,000 foot) temp at MSP Airport is about +4 degrees C Friday afternoon. In late spring with no snow on the ground that would yield a "potential" temperature of around 60 degrees under sunny skies and ideal conditions.

With deep snow cover, the air mass will modify and cool accordingly Friday...but I still think it's possible temps should soar well into the 40s Friday in southern Minnesota, and I would not be stunned to see a 50 degree reading somewhere in southern Minnesota, maybe close ot the metro... Friday afternoon.

After an abrupt cool down into the 30s this weekend behind a cold front Saturday, I do expect temps to recover into the 40s again next week, with another shot at 50 not out of the question as snow cover begins to melt .

Flood update today:

The NWS issues updated flood outlooks on Thursdays. As the snow melts at an increasing rate in the next week, we should start to see some rivers respond with rises.

The big factor in flood potential is snow water equivalent (SWE) still trapped in snowpack and the top layer of soil. As you can see from the NOHRSC map below, there is still agood 6" to 8" of liquid water equivalent available as "runoff" once the snow melts in the Minnesota and Red River watersheds.

Also note the 12"+ SWE around the BWCAW in northeast Minnesota. Lakes should be high and rivers in the BWCAW, and along the North Shore should be raging this spring.

You can see today's flood outlook updates below.

-Twin Cites NWS (Minnesota, Mississippi, St. Croix % Crow Rivers)
-Grand Forks NWS (Red River)

If you think weather forecasting is complicated, try a career as a hydrologist. They use complicated models with sometimes sparse and incomplete data (sounds familiar!) from snow cover analysis and river gauges. Flood forecasting is a science all it's own, and I have a ton of respect for the hydrologists who work hard to keep us ahead of the curve with rising river levels in flood season.

If you've ever had a tough time deciphering those "probabilistic outlooks" check out this excellent explanation from the Grand Forks NWS web site.

Flood radio show:

You can hear a special flood radio show from the NWS La Crosse tonight from 7-8pm here. Here are some of the topics NWS La Crosse will cover tonight.

Spring Flooding Live NOAA Weather Radio Show - March 10th (7-8 PM)

In addition, they will be answering questions pertaining to flooding. These can be e-mailed either before or during the show by using the following e-mail address: Jeff.Boyne@noaa.gov. They will also be taking phone call questions during the broadcast. The phone numbers to be used will be provided during the show.

La Crosse wins "golden snow shovel."

Our rather wimpy Wednesday snowmaker did manage to crank out an impressive 6.2" of snowfall at the La Crosse NWS office. Congratulations (condolences?) La Crosse, you win the golden snow shovel award with the latest weather system. There were some respectable snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa and Wisconsin.

Wednesday's snowfall map. (Click to enlarge)

La Nina fades:

Today's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion highlights the now fading la Nina in the tropical pacific. Forecasts call for a likely return to "ENSO neutral" conditions by summer. This could mean our spring like weather may be closer to "average" in the Upper Midwest...which means, expect a little bit of everything with wild swings in temperatures and periodic storms.

What else would we expect in Minnesota?

PH

Metro: 7th snowiest winter... 48 degrees by Friday?

Posted at 5:02 PM on March 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

We're #7!...We're #7!

Wednesday's bout of light snow has boosted the Twin Cities season snowfall one rung on the all time snowiest winter ladder. Our 79.7" season snowfall (1" today) now puts the metro at 7th place for the snowiest winters on record, according to the Twin Cities NWS. Here are the numbers.

Top 10 snowiest winters. (Click to enlarge)

Any shot at the top 5?

As you can see from the graphic above, the Twin Cities needs another 1.7" to move into sole possession of 6th place.

A fast moving clipper like system will pull up some warmer air Friday, then a cold front crashes through behind the system Friday night into Saturday morning. This should bring a shot of snow along, but totals look to be generally light, maybe another inch or two.

It will take another 4.4" to move into a 5th place tie. While that is certainly doable (and even likely?) before the snow season ends, I don't see any snow on the way yet that would push us into the top 5. (Sigh of relief here)

Spring fever ahead?

There may be an outbreak of spring fever in Minnesota Friday.

Milder air will begin to make regular incursions into Minnesota in the next week. I expect several days in the 40s with sunshine, southerly breezes and melting snow.

Days in the 40s more common in the next week! (Click to enlarge)

The overall weather scenario is evolving into what meteorologists sometimes call a "push-pull" weather pattern. It might be better to call it a "pull-push" pattern...here's why.

-A fast moving zonal (west to east) jet stream brings low pressure systems through the Upper Midwest in rapid succession...every 2-3 days.

-As the lows approach, southerly winds ahead of the system "pull" milder air into Minnesota. (Friday!)

-Behind the system, northwest winds fronts "push" colder air (and maybe snow) southward from Canada. (Saturday)

The result is wide swings in temperatures from day to day, with one day feeling like spring and the next a wintery rerun.

Welcome to March in Minnesota.

Here's the (mostly) milder outlook for the next week for the Metro and Greater Minnesota.

Thursday: Bright sun returns! High in the upper 30s to near 40. Light west winds.

Friday: Sunny, breezy and milder with highs near 48! South winds 10-22mph.

Friday night/Saturday: Blustery and colder. Shot of snow may bring 1" to 2" in most areas. High Saturday near 34, but feeling cooler with brisk NW winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool but with lighter winds. High near 33. Light snow late SW MN.

Monday: Mostly sunny & milder High near 41.

Tuesday: Sunny & milder. High 46.

Wednesday: Windy. Chance of rain showers. (Snow north) High low 40s.

On a limb: Much warmer weekend of March 19th-20th? Highs well into the 50s??

PH

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Snow fades today, 47 by Friday?

Posted at 8:32 AM on March 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Our Wednesday snow system is behaving about as expected so far. Snow will gradually taper off in the metro today, but linger into this evening in SE MN & Wisconsin.

Twin Cities NWS:

-Latest individual snowfall reports here.
-Latest snowfall summaries here.

La Crosse NWS: (Wisconsin & southeast Minnesota)

-Latest individual snowfall reports here.
-Latest snowfall summaries here.

Here are some snowfall totals so far as of this morning.

Twin Cities area:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

0824 AM SNOW BURNSVILLE 44.76N 93.28W
03/09/2011 M1.7 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 W PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.47W
03/09/2011 M1.5 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW HAMBURG 44.73N 93.96W
03/09/2011 M1.2 INCH CARVER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0742 AM SNOW INVER GROVE HEIGHTS 44.83N 93.06W
03/09/2011 M1.4 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0717 AM SNOW BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
03/09/2011 M1.2 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

As expected, snowfall totals are heavier in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

0700 AM SNOW SW ELLENDALE 43.87N 93.30W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W
03/09/2011 M3.0 INCH MARTIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0643 AM SNOW OSAGE 43.29N 92.81W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH MITCHELL IA PUBLIC

0711 AM SNOW CALEDONIA 43.63N 91.50W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

0711 AM SNOW AUSTIN KAAL TV 43.68N 92.95W
03/09/2011 M3.1 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AP 2NE 43.93N 92.48W
03/09/2011 M2.6 INCH OLMSTED MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW LA CROSSE WFO 43.82N 91.19W
03/09/2011 M5.2 INCH LA CROSSE WI CO-OP OBSERVER

Radar trends show snow gradually tapering as drier air works in behind the low pressure system as it moves east today. Expect light snow to gradually fade as we head through the afternoon.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Warm up on the way!

The upper air pattern is changing for the milder. Fast moving systems now spinning off the Pacific Ocean will sail though the Upper Midwest over the next week. That means the systems will pull up warmer (did I just actually type the word "warmer?!") air ahead of them as they move in...and cooler air behind.

The first such system is headed this way Friday. Look for a sunny and milder day Thursday as high pressure builds in, then southerly winds will kick in Friday and draw milder air north into Minnesota.

If we get enough sun...and it looks like we will, temperatures could soar into the mid-upper 40s Friday!

Cooler air and some snow may greet us on the system's back side Saturday, but the warm up will really get going next week.

I expect a few days in the 40s and a shot at 50s next week. It looks like we will really start melting some serious snow around here in the next 7 to 10 days.

Get ready for a taste of spring!

PH

Comment on this post

Snow moves in: Spring pattern & 50s next week?

Posted at 11:22 PM on March 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 11:30pm:

Snowfall has reached the southern metro as of 11pm Tuesday night. Many sites in southern Minnesota are reporting snow as the system moves closer.

LAKEVILLE LGT SNOW 30 27 86 E9 30.12F WCI 22

Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PIPESTONE MIX PCPN 28 28 100 E6 30.06S WCI 22
WINDOM LGT SNOW 30 30 100 NE8 30.07S WCI 23
JACKSON LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE13 30.07S VSB 1 WCI 22
TRACY LGT SNOW 22 20 92 NW7 30.10S WCI 14
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 28 27 95 NE5 30.08F VSB 3/4 WCI 23

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
NEW ULM LGT SNOW 32 28 86 E3 30.11S
ST JAMES LGT SNOW 32 28 86 NE8 30.09S WCI 25
FARIBAULT LGT SNOW 30 28 93 NE8 30.11S WCI 23
OWATONNA LGT SNOW 30 28 93 E12 30.08F WCI 21
ALBERT LEA LGT SNOW 32 32 100 NE9 30.02F WCI 24

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER LGT SNOW 32 30 92 NE14 30.08F FOG WCI 22
RED WING LGT SNOW 34 28 80 E9 30.13F WCI 26
STANTON LGT SNOW 33 29 86 NE9 30.10F WCI 25
DODGE CENTER LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E13 30.07F WCI 22
WINONA LGT SNOW 34 32 93 CALM 30.13F
AUSTIN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE13G18 30.04F WCI 22
PRESTON LGT SNOW 33 32 95 E9 30.07F WCI 26

Radar continues to show the northern edge of the snow working slowly north. The big question is how far north will the snow reach? It looks like the northern edge will be in or near the metro area early Wednesday morning, with snow at least a factor for the morning commute.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The evening model runs support my thinking that there will be a big "snowfall gradient" across the metro from NW to SE. The GFS (700 millibar low center track) seems to support keeping snowfall going in most of the metro through midday Wednesday.

Snowfall potential:

It also looks like snow will last much longer in the SE metro communities of Lakeville and Hastings than in the northwest metro. (Elk River, Anoka)

At this point I still see a forecast of 1" (NW) to 4" (SE) for the metro as a good overall range. Not a blockbuster storm by any means, but it should be enough to create some slick spots and gum up AM rush Wednesday.

Heavy snow band: 4" to 6"+ (with isolated 8" totals)

This includes Mason City, Austin, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Decorah, La Crosse, Tomah, and Eau Claire.

Plan on heavier snowfall rates and slick travel along I-35 south, Highways 52 & 61 southeast, and I-94 into Wisconsin.

Next update on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer at about 7:45am.

Nighty night!

PH

Update 8:15pm:

Snow is busting out in southern Minnesota and moving north toward the metro.

Here are some Minnesota locations reporting snow & mixed precip at 8pm:

Southwest Minnesota

CANBY LGT SNOW 20 19 93 NW6 30.15S WCI 13
PIPESTONE MIX PCPN 28 27 93 E8 30.07F WCI 20
WINDOM LGT SNOW 30 30 100 NE8 30.09S WCI 23
JACKSON LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE10 30.08F VSB 1 WCI 24
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 30 28 93 NE8 30.10F WCI 22

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ST JAMES LGT SNOW 32 28 86 NE3 30.11F
OWATONNA FLURRIES 32 28 86 NE10 30.10F WCI 24
WASECA CLOUDY 32 28 86 NE12 30.12F WCI 23
ALBERT LEA LGT SNOW 32 32 100 E9 30.05S WCI 24

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ROCHESTER LGT SNOW 34 28 80 NE12 30.10F FOG WCI 25
DODGE CENTER LGT SNOW 34 30 86 E13 30.10S WCI 25
AUSTIN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E12 30.07S WCI 23
PRESTON LGT SNOW 33 32 94 E9 30.09S WCI 26

Radar is lighting up with snow in southern Minnesota.

Leading edge of snow moving north Tuesday evening.

Expect snowfall to move north along I-35 and reach the south metro by around 10pm.

PH

****Original post 3:48pm*****

Our (too?) long advertised Wednesday snowmaker is hanging by a thread.

The low pressure system is dropping rain and snow on much of the Midwest will steer northeast overnight. The system's southerly track will mean a glancing blow for most of Minnesota, and there are some late indications that the metro will be right on the edge of accumulating snow.

There is also still a low but growing chance that the system will veer further south, and miss parts of the (especially northwest) metro.

Here is the latest thinking on the system from the world headquarters of the MPR Huttner Weather Lab:

Track:

The bevy of forecast models is still maintaining a more southerly route with the surface low. The cluster of tracks position the surface low near Quincy, IL by 6am Wednesday, then move it through Chicago's south side into lower Lake Michigan by Wednesday evening at 6pm.

*This track is usually too far south for heavy snow in the metro, and I still expect the "heavy" snow band (such as it is) to lay across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

*There are some hints that the track could shift even further south. With the Twin Cities already forecast to be on the northern edge of accumulating snowfall, any further southward shift could mean that snowfall misses parts of the (N & W?) Twin Cities to the south!

Timing & duration:

A solid batch of moisture is surging north through Iowa. It's warm enough for rain in Des Moines (41 degrees). As the moisture hits the colder air and darkness falls I expect the rain to change to snow as it surges north into in southern Minnesota tonight.

Rain surges north in Iowa.

Expect snow to pick up in southern Minnesota (could mix at times with rain early) tonight and spread north toward the metro after midnight.

Snow should peak Wednesday morning, but could end quickly form west to east in the metro Tuesday afternoon. The duration of the snowfall could be under 12 hours in the Twin Cities, with longer duration snowfall lingering into Wednesday evening in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Snowfall totals:

If the storm stays on track, (an increasingly bigger if at this point) I still expect the following snowfall totals:

Heavy snow band: 4" to 6"+ (with isolated 8" totals)

This includes Mason City, Austin, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Decorah, La Crosse, Tomah, and Eau Claire.

Mankato-Twin Cities-Rice Lake & Duluth: 1" to 4"

Right now I am leaning toward the lower end of that range for much of the metro pending tonight's late model run.

Willmar-St. Cloud-Brainerd: Little or no accumulation.
Expect relatively good travel along I-94 between the Twin Cities and Fargo.

System "weakening?"

The relative lack of cold air behind the system may cause some overall weakening. Also thunderstorms on the system's southern ends are sopping up moisture that would be potentially available for snow on the system's northern edge.

Bottom line: Expect snow to increase late tonight and Wednesday morning in southern Minnesota. This does not look like a major storm for the metro, and if the track shifts further south snowfall could miss some areas of the (NW?) Twin Cities.

Stay tuned...

Spring-like pattern change ahead?

Briefly, I'm starting to see a major pattern change in the jet stream over the next two weeks. The big "boss man" Hudson Bay Polar Vortex that has controlled our weather this winter shows definite signs of weakening and shifting north.

This should open the door to milder Pacific air masses in the next two weeks. More details to come, but I expect more frequent days in the 40s (starting Friday?) and it looks like we may see a major warm up (possibly 50s!) the weekend of March 19-20th.

50s the weekend of March 10th & 20th?

It also looks like we may see some rain systems zipping through, and we may not add copious amounts of snow over the next two weeks.

More on this later...stay tuned.

PH

Metro: 1" to 4" Heavier snow S & E

Posted at 8:54 AM on March 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are on track with our late winter/early spring storm system, however... there is a slight but increasing chance that the storm may slide even further south...meaning it could conceivably miss the Twin Cities area!

NWS advisories: (Click to enlarge)

With the "storm's" effects now imminent, here's what we can expect as we head through the next 24 to 36 hours.

Today:

Scattered snow showers are lifting NE ahead of the system today. The snow will be patchy through today, but some shots of snow will fall in the southern half of Minnesota.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Temperatures should rise through the 20s and into the 30s in most areas today, keeping many roads wet instead of icy. I expect generally good driving conditions today.

Tonight:

As the low pressure system moves closer, snow will become steadier and heavier tonight. Expect snowfall coverage and intensity to pick up between 9pm and midnight in southern Minnesota, and probably after midnight in the metro. The "heaviest" snow rates should come after midnight.

Low pressure center still in Oklahoma Tuesday morning.

Temperatures should stabilize in the lower 30s tonight, and with increased snowfall rates snowfall should accumulate and slick roads will develop.

Wednesday:

Snowfall rates should peak during the morning Wednesday. Northeast winds between 10 and 20 mph will drive a wet snow. Travel will be the most difficult during the day Wednesday.

It looks like there may be a sharp cutoff in snowfall from west to east near the metro by Wednesday PM. Expect the heaviest snows in southeast Minnesota near Winona, Red Wing, Austin, Albert Lea & Rochester over to La Crosse and Eau Claire. Travel south
(I-35) and east (I-94) should be slick Wednesday.

Expect snow to end in the metro Wednesday PM from west to east, but linger in Wisconsin and SE MN.

Surface low's southern track unfavorable for heavy snow in the metro.

Snowfall totals:

Last night's NAM hinted the low pressure system may jog a little closer to Minnesota, but the overnight runs put the system back on a more southerly track.

Based on those trends I am sticking with my initial forecast snowfall totals from Monday AM.

Heavy snow band: 4" to 8"

I still expect the heaviest snow band to include Mason City, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, La Crosse & Eau Claire where 4" to as much as 8" of heavy wet snow could pile up by Wednesday night.

Twin Cities Metro: 1" to 4"

The system's snow shield looks like it may develop a sharp cutoff on the northwest side by tomorrow. That could create a pretty good "snowfall gradient" near the Twin Cities tomorrow, with lower totals around an inch or two in the northwest metro (Rogers, Anoka, Maple Grove) and closer to 4" in the southeast metro. (Lakeville, Cottage Grove)

I still believe the best snowfall range for the Twin Cities is between 1" and 4".

Snowfall totals should increase as you move south and east from the metro, with the potential for 6"+ in Red Wing, Northfield, Waseca and points south & east.

Model snowfall output suggests 2" to 3" for MSP Airport.

Model output:

The latest GFS is printing out snowfall of 1.5" for MSP Airport with this system.

(click for bigger image)

Heavy wet snow:

With temperatures close to 32 degrees for much of this event, this should be a relatively heavy wet snow. (Good snowball weather!) Snow:water ratios may be around 7:1 to 9:1 on Wednesday. Some roads may be a "slush fest" Wednesday.

Southern convection (thunderstorms) may steal some moisture:

Like many early spring storms, thunderstorms are busting out in the warmer air on the system's south side. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in the Southern Plains with this system. The storm that form can "wring out" some moisture before it gets a chance to wrap into the system's northern side. That can reduce snowfall totals in some cases.

We may hear news reports of severe weather in the southward along the Mississippi Valley with this system.

Bottom line: Expect snow spotty snow today, with snow coverage and intensity increasing tonight into Wednesday. Overall, I do not expect this to be a major snowfall event for the metro, but travel will become more difficult as you head southeast from the Twin Cities tonight & tomorrow.

There is also a slight but increasing chance this storm will slide far enough south to largely miss the Twin Cities metro.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

Twin Cities: 8th snowiest winter, Snow on track Wednesday

Posted at 5:00 PM on March 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

"We're #8! We're #8!"

We're moving up the ladder on the top 10 snowiest winter list.

Our "official" Sunday snowfall of 2.1" at MSP Airport brings our season snowfall total to a whopping, snow blower testing, ice dam forming, 78.7"!

Here's the tally from Twin Cities NWS:

We're #8!

The metro is now just 5.4" away from 5th place on the list. The season total to date tracks on par with the top 5 highest snowfall totals on record for MSP.

I think there is a good chance we'll end up in the top 5 snowiest winters when the season is (hopefully!) done in April.

Wednesday storm: Still mostly on track

My snowfall forecast remains at a range 1" to 4" for the metro by late Wednesday. I also still think the heavy snow band will set up from northern Iowa thorugh SE MN and into western Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches are in effect Tuesday night and Wednesday.

I still expect potentially heavy snowfall of 6" to 10" to the southeast by late Wednesday. Think Ames, Mason City, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Wabasha, La Crosse, Tomah, Menomonie, Eau Claire & Wausau.

Today's model runs try to track the low ever so slightly north from last night's track...but also seem to weaken the northwest side of the system. The bottom line is I do not see any reason to vary my thinking based on the latest model runs at this point.

My latest forecast thinking remains the same as my morning analysis. You can check out the full storm analysis with my forecast snow totals for specific areas on my Updraft post from this morning.

Let's see what the Monday night & Tuesday AM model runs show. There is still plenty of time before the snow flies.

PH

Wednesday storm: Grazes metro, heavier snow S & E

Posted at 9:13 AM on March 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The forecast models are getting a better handle on snow prospects for Wednesday, and it looks like a glancing blow for the metro.

Here's the latest thinking, and my forecast snow totals as of Monday for our Wednesday system.

The system:

A moderately strong low pressure system will form in the Texas Panhandle early Tuesday and begin to track northeast.

The track:

The last few model runs are coming into closer agreement on a more southerly track. This would take the surface low from the Texas Panhandle early Tuesday, then south of Kansas City Tuesday evening to near Chicago by Wednesday evening.

This southerly track should place the heavy snow band in northern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin. It appears the Twin Cities will be on the northwest edge of this system, meaning any further southward shift in the low track could mean snowfall misses the metro.

Timing:

Look for snow to spread north during the day Tuesday in Iowa and into southern Minnesota later Tuesday night. It appears snowfall that does reach the metro will not get here until after midnight Tuesday night/ Wednesday, making this a mostly Wednesday system.

Snowfall should continue (with peak intensities) much of Wednesday south and east of the metro, but snow may end by 6pm in the Twin Cities. The event duration should be under 12 hours in the metro, with a longer period of snowfall to the south and east.

Snowfall totals:

The storm is still nearly 40 hours away, but I think we have a handle on some projected snowfall totals with this system. It appears the heavy snow band with this storm will set up through Ames, Decorah, Albert Lea, Rochester, La Crosse, Tomah, Eau Claire to Wausau.

NAM lays out heavy snow band through Iowa, SE MN & Wisconsin.

If you are in or planning travel to southeast Minnesota, Iowa or central Wisconsin
(I-35 south or I-94 east) late Tuesday night and Wednesday expect heavy snow in those areas.

Heavy snow band: 6" to 10" possible (Ames, Mason City, Decorah, Albert Lea, Rochester, La Crosse, Tomah, Eau Claire to Wausau.)

Further north & west: 2" to 5" This includes a swath from Mankato through the far SE metro to Hinckley and Duluth.

Northwest fringe of storm: 1"- 3" possible. This includes a swath from near New Ulm to Glencoe into the northwest half of Twin Cities, St. Cloud Lake Mille Lacs into the Iron Range.

The best snowfall "range" for the metro looks like 1" to 4" with the best chance of 4" in the southeast metro near Hastings and Lakeville, 2" to 3" in the central metro and closer to 1" in the northwest. The NAM & GFS are printing out 2.5" for MSP Airport Wednesday. That seems like a reasonable snowfall total to me at this point barring any track changes. Expect some variation in model snowfall output between now and Wednesday.

*Again any further southward shift in track could reduce snowfall totals accordingly.

Bottom line: Expect snow after midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday. Snow should taper by around 6pm Wednesday in the metro, but will last into the night to the east into Wisconsin. The heaviest snow band will likely set up south and east of the Twin Cities.

NAM prints out 2.5" for MSP Airport Wednesday.

Impacts:

It looks like Wednesday morning rush hour could be the first to be impacted by the snow in the metro. Travel south (I-35) and east (I-94) will become difficult all day Wednesday as the storm ramps up. While I do not expect any "blizzard" conditions, there will be winds of 15 to 25 mph with this system, and it will produce some blowing and drifting in open areas.

Storm character:

This will be a relatively wet snow compared to many of the storms we've seen this winter. Snow:water ratios should be between 9:1 and 12:1 with this storm.

Temperatures will be in the low to perhaps mid-30s with the system Wednesday. Roads may be slushy at times, but compacted snow in many areas will make for slick travel.

This will be a classic wet slushy early March storm in many areas. There could be "thundersnow" in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin with this system.

Additonal snow "chances" Friday night & Sunday night?

A note on forecasting snowfall in advance of storms.

This is the first actual snowfall "forecast" with projected totals I've made for this system. There are very good reasons why it's prudent and responsible to wait until 24 to 48 hours prior to an event to make snowfall forecasts.

-The medium range forecast models may identify the possibility of a storm a week or more in advance, but the errors are just too great 3 to 7 days out to make accurate, reliable or useful snowfall projections.

-Models don't really "lock on" to approaching storms until they track into the North American upper air (weather balloon) and surface observation network. The higher data density provided by the network allows better "sampling" of the storm properties as systems move ashore, and leads to better track and intensity forecasts.

-Model accuracy for snowfall totals in Midwest storms improves in accuracy dramatically within 48 hours of a storm.

-There is a window in which improved forecast accuracy and the need to plan and take effective action for an approaching storm meet. 24 to 48 hours in advance of a snow event is still plenty of time for most people to plan accordingly for the coming event.

Issuing specific (& likely unreliable) snowfall forecasts several days in advance can result in wild forecast ranges (2" to over a foot?) which are ultimately of little "value" to weather consumers.

Taste of Spring: A shot at 40 Thursday & Friday?

It looks like the weather will mellow and turn milder with a taste of spring Thursday into Friday. Thursday should feature plenty of bright, strong March sun, with temps making a run through the upper 30s to near 40 in southern Minnesota including the metro.

A surge of milder air Friday may help temps push into the lower 40s Friday, before another cold front (with a few rain and snow showers) brings us back to March reality this weekend.

Let's see what the next set of model runs does with the system today and tonight, and enjoy a quiet Monday and Tuesday!

PH

Comment on this post

1" to 2"+ by morning; Still on the edge Wednesday

Posted at 4:39 PM on March 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Snow totals update 11:15pm Sunday:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1002 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 BRANDON MN DOUGLAS 0926 PM
4.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0833 PM
4.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0455 PM
3.40 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0610 PM
3.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 PM
3.00 2 W FOLEY MN BENTON 0524 PM
2.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0632 PM
2.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0759 PM
1.60 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0856 PM
1.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0825 PM
1.30 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0845 PM
0.40 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0554 PM
0.20 MINNEAPOLIS AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 0554 PM

Sunday PM & evening Update:

Through Sunday night:

Weak system is producing light snow in most areas as expected. Totals should range mostly between 1" and 2" through tonight, with some isolated higher totals (to 4"?) toward Alex & St.Cloud (& maybe far NW metro) where heavier snowfall bands are present. Remember even a little light snow can produce some slick spots so take it easy as you're out and about through tonight.

Bands of light snow will move through tonight.

Still on the edge of a storm Wednesday:

The forecast models are still showing considerable differences (big surprise!) in the track and intensity of Wednesday's storm system.

*The overall trend remains to steer the surface and upper lows further south than many models were suggesting last week.

Modles track the surface low. Note the wide range in (model) locations for the surface low by 6am Wednesday! (Click to enlarge for a better view)

That means the heavy snow band will likely set up (well?) southeast of the metro, and locations such as Mason City, Iowa, Rochester and La Crosse appear to have a much better chance of heavy snow (than the metro) Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Some models (including the NAM) track the surface low from south of Kansas City Tuesday at 6pm to south of the Quad Cities Wednesday morning at 6am, and then track the system to near Madison or Milwaukee by Wednesday evening. That is generally not a favorable storm track for heavy snow in the metro, and tends to lay out the storms "heavy snow band" in northern Iowa, far southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

The European & very latest GFS model (Sunday PM) have the surface low as far south as Chicago by Wednesday evening. If that track pans out, it would drastically reduce snowfall totals near the metro. There is even a chance we could see very little snow in parts of the metro if the more southerly track verifies.

European model tracks the surface low to near Chicago by late Wednesday.

*The most reliable forecast at this point is to expect some potentially heavy snow Tuesday night & Wednesday in southeast Minnesota, northern Iowa and central Wisconsin.

*If the model trends pushing the system south continue, there is even a chance the storm could mostly miss the Twin Cities to the south.

*One thing that appears very likely? We're probably not going to get a foot of snow anywhere near the metro with this system. Now you know why we don't (publicly) forecast over a foot of snow a week in advance. As good as I'd like to think I am at forecasting snow...nobody is that good, especially with the error rate in the numerical weather forecast models a week out. Things could still change for the snowier, but at this point I'd say there is a better chance the system will miss the metro than there is for getting a foot of snow.

*I will post some model output with specific snowfall totals when I think it's more reliable, right now I don't think it's reliable enough to have much value. Hopefully things will come together with model runs tonight and Monday morning.

Bottom line: It's still too early to make a call on snowfall totals for the Twin Cities with the storm system passing to the south Tuesday night & Wednesday.

It looks like any snowfall that does hit the metro won't begin until late Tuesday night, and any effects would be during the Wednesday morning commute. We're still more than 48 hours away from this system in the metro.

Those of you in or planning travel to southern Minnesota (I-90 corridor from Worthington-Albert Lea-Rochester), northern Iowa (Spencer-Mason City-Decorah) and SW & central Wisconsin (La Crosse, Eau Claire & Tomah) should know there is a good chance of heavy snow Tuesday night & Wednesday with the latest forecast model trends.

Enjoy(?) the light snow through tonight & stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

1"+ PM &Tonight? Edge of major storm Wednesday?

Posted at 12:57 AM on March 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Just back from 2 (great!) days at Wolf Ridge ELC in Finland above the North Shore presenting a talk on the extreme & record weather of the past year to the 2nd annual Minnesota Phenology & Weather Observers gathering.

Many thanks to Peter Harris & the entire Wolf Ridge ELC team for hosting the event. And thanks to the many MPR listeners who showed up to greet us. It was great meeting you!

Sunshine on Lake Superior Saturday at Lutsen. I was not lucky enough to have time to ski, but we did ride the gondola up for lunch. What a view!

Here's a quick update on the latest model runs and thinking on snow chances the next few days. I'll have a more detailed analysis Sunday PM.

Sunday & Sunday night:

A weak "open wave" will pass over Minnesota Sunday. This minor system should eek out a little light snow today into early Monday. Models are putting out maybe an inch or two, but there are some signs the system could weaken as it moves in Sunday. Right now it appears we will have little if any snow for most of Monday PM into Tuesday.

Bottom line? Expect the possibility for a minor nuisance snowfall from Sunday PM & night into early Monday AM.

On the edge of a major winter storm Tuesday night & Wednesday:

There have been several changes in the potential track of the major winter storm which is still expected in the Midwest this week. I'll give you some quick highlights rather than a lengthy description of each (contradictory) twist in the models.

-I still expect a major winter storm to hit the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point It looks like there is a 80% chance of a plowable event from the Twin Cities south into southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and much of central Wisconsin.

-Weekend model trends track the storm further south, but there is still some chance it may "recurve" to the north, meaning it is still too early to pinpoint the heavy snow bands, and therefore to place reliable* snowfall accumulations.

*It is often not accurate (or even responsible) to forecast snowfall totals more than 24 to 48 hours in advance of these systems, as the track can and usually does vary significantly in the days preceding the storm. (How many different snowfall forecasts do you want? And which one should you "plan" for?)

-The models are coming into "closer" agreement, and we should hopefully have a better handle on storm track and where the heavy snow bands will set up (and totals) by Sunday night's model runs.

NAM hinting Twin Cities on edge of major snow by Wednesday? Stay tuned as models sort things out.

***
Bottom line: There is a high chance of snow for southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and central Wisconsin Tuesday night & Wednesday. Heavy snow (6"+) is possible somewhere between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. Forecasts should gain clarity (and hopfully accuracy and reliability!) in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned!

PH

Storm next week, then rain & 50s could be "flood trigger"

Posted at 8:22 AM on March 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (13 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

I'm getting a little more concerned this morning about a pattern change that could be a "flood trigger" in the next two weeks.

Jumping ahead here for a minute...the latest model runs confirms my thinking that a big thaw is now in sight starting the weekend of March 12th, and peaking the following week.

In fact the GFS is cranking out a high of 56 on Friday March 18th! Now that's going wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb, but if fits with the overall "long wave" pattern changes I've been seeing in the medium range forecast models.

GFS cranking out heavy rain and temps in the 50s by March 18th?

The downside of this forecast is that we could transition into a warmer but stormy pattern that could produce (convective?) rain in the next two weeks. This would not be good news for area rivers and spring flood potential.

Stay tuned...a change to much milder spring weather pattern may be about 10 days away!

Dusting Today East Metro:

The upper wave of low pressure responsible for the snow threat is weak and moving through fast, and the forecast models are picking up on the trend of just adusting of snow, mainly east metro today.

Latest NAM run likes a dusting for most of metro, with heavier snow totals east.

Right now I am leaning toward a quick shot of snow this morning with a few flurries and snow showers lingering later in the day. It appears overall accumulations under an inch in most areas...with 1" to 3" possible as you travel east along I-94 into Wisconsin.

Bottom line: Thursday's snowfall should fall into the "nuisance" category.

Major storm next Tuesday & Wednesday?

The models are still painting a picture that includes a possible major winter storm next Tuesday & Wednesday for Minnesota.

Modles cranking out heavy snow next Tuesday-Wednesday.

It's interesting to watch the medium range forecast models pick up on these systems a week out, and then tinker with timing, track and temperature profile as the days roll by.

Generally speaking, medium range (out to two weeks or so) forecast models perform better with large temperature trends than individual storm systems. But sometimes the models pick up big "high amplitude" wave patterns in the jet stream a week or so out, and that can result in reasonable forecast accuracy with bigger storms.

Still, I have seen numerous times when a big storm is "advertised" by the GFS and other medium range models and it fails to occur. There can be so many reasons for this...a shift in the low pressure track north or south can displace heavy preip bands. A northward surge of warmth can change snow to rain or ice. A previously undetected shift in the overall "long wave" pattern can weaken a potential storm in the days preceding the event.

Still the GFS and ECMWF (European) models are on track with the notion of a big snow maker for much of Minnesota next Tuesday & Wednesday. For now, I'd stick with the idea that a major "classic" March snowstorm is possible, if not likely next week.

GFS puts powerful surface low in eastern Iowa next Tuesday night.

GFS cranking out 1.43" liquid next week, and mixing snow with rain at MSP Airport.

Got Snow Fatigue?

I hear it in the voices of most Minnesotans now. Every time you mention the threat of more snow, they cringe. Cries of "Nooooooo!" and "Make it stop!" are now as common as snow drifts, ice dams and potholes.

We should realize this is not your "average" Minnesota winter...even by your daddy's standards. This is a winter on steroids. We're likely to end up with a top 3 snowiest winter on record, and we have a shot at the "title." The good news is, if you've made it this far...you're closer to "winter's finish line" than you think.

Yes, I know there are those of you who want more snow and either really are snow fanatics or delusional that all this snow is a good thing, and that we're macho Minnesotans and... blah blah blah.

If I look at the effects of this winter I'm not laughing any more.

Any additional snowfall is going to make a really, really bad spring flood situation worse. We already had plenty of soil moisture going into winter for farms and trees, adding 80" of snow on top of that is really a bit of overkill. I hope and pray that those of you in the path of floodwaters will heed the advice to buy flood insurance, and to prepare now for what's coming in the next 45 days.

I'm not a psychologist, but I can tell you from my daily conversations that people's moods and mental health seems to be taking a hit from this strenuous winter.

I've always been able to look ahead, and I'm probably a bit of a naive optimist...and for some reason I can see that spring, sunnier milder days and green shoots (and outdoor baseball!) are closer than we think this time of year. But still looking out my window and the talk of more snow on the way can even get to me too.

All I can say is "hang in there." The weather will get better! Spring really is coming soon...and you can trust that I am scanning the weather maps for the first sign of a significant change in our weather pattern that will lead to a more spring like pattern. And it does look potentially milder as we head into the weekend of March 12th & 13th.

What do you think? Are you "done" with winter & snow? Or would you rather have a big March and bust the record? Do tell....

PH

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Forecast: 1" to 3" tomorrow...major storm next Tuesday?

Posted at 8:20 AM on March 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Thursday snow update:

The latest look at the weather maps confirms my thinking on 1" to 3" of new snowfall Thursday. The system will be gaining strength right over the metro as it moves east into Wisconsin. That may put some heavier snow totals in the east metro by later Thursday PM.

Season snowfall record in sight?

My former WCCO-TV colleague and TV news icon Dave Moore used to say; "Make no big decisions in March."

Looking at the weather maps over the next two weeks and doing the math leads me to believe there is now at least an 80% chance this will end up as the snowiest winter on record in the Twin Cities.

-Snowfall so far: 76.5"

-Likely snow in the next week: Another 10"-12" (Total 86" to 88")

That leaves another 10" to 12" to break the all time record, and that is very "doable" during the rest of March and into early April.

Stay tuned, and keep the shovel handy for now.

PH

It was in the 60s in Nebraska again Tuesday. Spring is so close... a 5 hour drive on the freeway, but so far away on the weather maps.

Mini-Thaw: Nice while it lasted!

Ample sunshine and mild westerly breezes made for a nice thaw Tuesday in southern Minnesota and much of the Upper Midwest. Here are some afternoon temps, all within a mere 5 to 7 hour trip from the Twin Cities!

-Twin Cities 41 degrees
-Des Moines 50 degrees
-Omaha 56 degrees

Tuesday's high of 41 degrees was the warmest day in the Twin Cities in 12 days!

Tuesday PM temperatures show huge contrast in air masses from 60s south to sub-zero north!

Snow cover retreating north:

The Minnesota landscape still lokks like mid-winter with a foot or more of snow on the ground in many locations. But drive 3 hours south of the metro and you'll see bare ground! The northern edge of the snowpack has (temporarily) retreated into northern and central Iowa. Much of Nebraska is also snow free.

The higher March sun angle and lack of snow cover to the south & southwest played a big role in allowing southwest winds to warm southern Minnesota nicely Tuesday.

Tale of two seasons:

While southern Minnesota basked in brief spring-like warmth Tuesday, the next arctic front frosted northern Minnesota. Temperatures hovered single digits Tuesday in the northwest, and the arctic air is oozing south. Lows will again dip to -20 or colder in northern Minnesota overnight, with highs in the single digits and teens Wednesday as a wintry air mass returns.

Next snow Thursday:

The next weather system makes a move on Minnesota Thursday. Moisture will overrun the cold air dome near the surface as low pressure sails in from the west. Snow will bust out as a result Thursday, and it could be enough to plow by Thursday night.

At this point it looks like this will be a minor weather system, with snow breaking out Thursday AM and lasting through midday before tapering Thursday PM. Early indications point to general 1" to 3" snow totals with Thursday's system. Thursday midday and PM rush hour could be slick and slow as a result.

Nicer Friday!

It looks like Friday may bring a break in the action, and a return to sunshine and milder temps. Highs should reach the 30s again in much of Minnesota.

Southern system Saturday:

The models are tracking another systems passing south through Iowa Saturday with a chance of snow clipping southern Minnesota. This system could be a big (10"?) snow producer for Des Moines and Madison if you are planning travel south or east.

It looks dry and sunny (but cool) in the north Saturday.

Major Winter Storm next week?

All systems appear to be go for our next major winter storm Monday... and especially Tuesday. The models are developing a powerful "lee side low" in Colorado on Monday, then tracking it east into Iowa and Wisconsin Tuesday. This is a perfect track to dump heavy snow in Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

Models tracking major storm potential next Tuesday!

The Gulf of Mexico will be "wide open" with this storm, feeding moisture into the system. That could mean a heavy wetter snow. The additional moisture and strong upper air dynamics may produce thundersnow once again.

There is still a chance the track could change, but if ti stays on track, this could be a classic, heavy, knock down-drag out March snow storm next Tuesday!

Signs of a thaw?

There are signs of a thaw somewhere around the March 14 to 16 time frame. Milder Pacific air may work into the Upper Midwest. It's a long way out...and there may still be more snow behind that.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

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3rd snowiest winter likely; Thaw in sight?

Posted at 7:40 AM on February 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

The numbers are looking "good" for the 3rd snowiest winter on record in the Twin Cities, and it looks like we'll at least make a run at #1.

Here are the totals so far in the "Mega Winter" of 2010-'11:

76.5" season snowfall total so far at MSP Airport.
(Currently the 9th snowiest winter on record for MSP)

13.5" average snowfall for March & April

90" Where MSP season snowfall total would end up with just average snowfall

98.6" The snowiest winter on record in 1982-'83. (Another 22.1")

A look at the medium range maps this week yields 3 more chances for snowfall in the next 10 days.

Wednesday night & Thursday: A shot of lighter snow
(1" to 3" range?) for the metro & southern Minnesota, could be heavier up north.

Sunday: Another shot of snow possible.

Next Tuesday March 8th: Maps advertising potential for a major winter storm.

Models advertising potential (lighter) snow events Thursday & Sunday.(Click to enlarge)

GFS hints at possible major storm March 8th.

It is possible MSP (and much of Minnesota) could pick up our remaining average snowfall of 13.5" in the next 10 days!

Based on that notion, I'd asses the following probabilities for reaching season snowfall thresholds by mid April.

5th snowiest winter on record (84.1") 90%

1st Place: Snowiest winter on record (98.6") 50% (a 50/50 shot)

Average high now above freezing!

Want some brighter news? At least our average daily high temperature is now above freezing in the metro. The average high at MSP this week is 33 Monday, and rises to 35 degrees by Saturday!

The average high is 40 by March 16th, and hits 49 by the last day of March! It gets tougher to keep much snowfall around with the higher sun angle in a month. If you're looking for some trends of spring, hang in there about 2-3 weeks!

Evening daylight:

Sunset in the Twin Cities is now at 6pm this week. The sunset will remain at 6pm or later from now until November 2nd! Look for a noticeable increase in daylight well into the evening the next few weeks. Here's a great site to check out sunrise & sunset times for any location.

Twin Cities daylight in March
(Click to enlarge)

Push-pull weather pattern:

The "polar front" jet stream is right overhead this week. That means a fast moving series of fronts will pull milder air ahead of passing low pressure systems, then push colder (remnant arctic) air down behind. Look for alternating milder and colder days for much of this week. Right now Tuesday and Thursday look like the milder days, with highs in the 30s.

Meteorolocial Spring begins Tuesday!

For record keeping purposes, we can kiss meteorological winter goodbye today. The coldest 3 months of the year historically are Dec-Feb. March-May marks meteorological spring.

It won't feel like spring right away this year as it did last year, but there are signs that some milder air is beginning to push this way, At least we'll hit the 30s this week! Last year it was like somebody flipped the "instant spring" switch around March 1st.

The weather maps and overall pattern suggest it will really look and feel like winter for at least another 10-12 days.

Bigger thaw in sight?

The latest GFS runs are hinting at a change in the upper air pattern that could produce a bigger thaw the weekend of March 12 & 13th. It's too early to bank on it yet, but if the pattern pans out temps could soar into the upper 30s or even 40s by that weekend.

Major flood risk remains:

While spring lovers might revel in warmer temps down the road, they will also be the initial trigger for snowmelt and rapid river rises. There is still a good 4" to 6"+ of water locked up in snowpack in the Minnesota and Red River basins.

There is more than 10" locked up in snowpack near the BWCAW and the North Shore! After years of drought, it looks like North Shore Rivers will be raging this spring and early summer.

(Click to enlarge)

For hydrologists it's all about "Snow Water Equivalent" or "SWE"...that's the measure of how much water content is in the snowpack outside your window. SWE is a much better tool than snow depth at calculating eventual river rises. Hydrologists will be watching to see how much additional SWE id "deposited" between now and flood time this spring.

With 4" to 6"+ SWE on the ground already, this still looks like a major to epic spring flood season any way you slice it.

PH

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Weekend: Light snow-then milder; bigger snow Thursday?

Posted at 3:52 PM on February 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend, Winter/spring 2011

Get ready for some signifcant weather changes in the next week.

Cold first:

The weekend will dawn cold in Minnesota. Sub-zero temps early Saturday will give way to highs in the teens Saturday with temps rebounding into the 20s to near 30 by Sunday.

The weekend starts on a chilly note Saturday morning.

Saturday snow?

As warm air mercifully pushes back toward Minnesota this weekend, light snow should break out Saturday as warm air overruns our relatively cold dome near the surface.

The computers are only printing out around .10" of liquid equivalent...but that could produce an inch or two of fluff with temps in the teens.

NAM model likes 1.9" of powder Saturday. FYI, GFS says 0.8"

It looks like there could be a few hours of very light snow Saturday afternoon. With temps in the teens, it won't take much snow to grease up some roads as road salt doesn't work as well below 20 degrees.

Milder Sunday with a "near miss?"

Sunday should feature milder temperatures as arctic air retreats. 20s should be common by afternoon, with a shot at 30 in southern Minnesota.

A fairly decent storm system should track near or south of Chicago Sunday into Monday.

That track should be far enough southeast of Minnesota to keep the heavy snow bands south of the metro, but a swath of 6"+ could possibly clip far southeast Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

Bigger snow next week?

After a fairly quiet start to next week, it looks like there is a chance of a bigger snow system by next Thursday. It's early, but the models are hinting at low pressure coming north Thursday, with a push of snowfall that could produce several inches somewhere close to home.

Stay tuned.....

No sign of spring...yet.

The longer range weather maps are still locked into a pattern that looks and feels a lot like late winter. It appears that seasonal temps and chances for snow could linger into mid-March this year.

Want some hope for spring? Upper air patterns become increasingly amplified and chaotic as we move into March in the northern hemisphere. The medium range forecast models have a tougher time catching the changes during this seasonal "transition."

It is quite possible to wake up any day now, and see a set of forecast maps that look a lot like spring...with a major surge of warm air heading for the Midwest.

While I'm hopeful that our warm up may be gradual for those at risk of flooding, I know that things can change very rapidly as we head into March.

Have a great weekend!

PH

Weekend snow chances? Would NWS cuts harm Minnesota?

Posted at 5:05 PM on February 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

As arctic air slides into the region, the forecast models for the weekend bear watching.

A split flow in the upper atmosphere and an active southern branch of the jet stream is spawning potential snow system. The flow is chaotic, something the forecast models don't handle very well. The big question is how far north these southern disturbances will project snow.

Major model differences:

There are some pretty remarkable differences and "divergent solutions" between the models regarding the weekend forecast at this point. Depending on which model turns out to be right, Saturday could either be sunny and cold, or cloudy with steady light snow adding up to 1" to 3" for much of southern Minnesota.

Sunday into Monday could either feature a storm sliding south and producing significant snowfall for Wisconsin or Chicago, or veer north and sideswipe southeast Minnesota (and possibly even the metro) with a shot of snow.

Right now I'm leaning toward a solution which features just a chance of light snow Saturday, with the bulk of a southern branch storm sliding southeast of Minnesota Sunday into Monday.

But stay tuned for updates as the modles (hopefully) sort things out Friday....

Could NWS funding cuts affect forecast accuracy in Minnesota?

There is big talk in Washington these days about proposed budget cuts for NOAA and the National Weather Service. Some proposals cut the NWS budget by about 30%.

Suggested impacts of such cuts could include closing NWS offices (there was already consolidation years ago which closed the NWS office in International Falls) reducing maintenance on the doppler radar and NOAA weather radio networks and even reducing the number of upper air soundings from every 12 hours to once daily or even once every two days.

While I don't always jump on the NWS bandwagon, it is clear to me this is not the place to start cutting budgets. Studies have shown that accurate weather forecasts save the U.S. economy as much as 4-billion dollars annually! Most of this data comes directly in one form or another from NOAA & NWS.

One area where we might see an immediate catastrophic forecast impact would be if either the number or frequency of upper air soundings is reduced. These twice daily soundings are used as initial input into numerical forecast models that we use every day to make our weather forecasts.

If the geographic coverage or frequency of upper air data input feeding into the models is reduced, it would likely drastically affect model performance.

Twin Cities upper air sounding today.

One area that could wreak havoc for Minnesota is on model performance for winter storms.

Many of our major winter storms cross the Pacific before moving into the upper air weather balloon "grid" over North America. Once the systems get "sampled" by the upper air grid, the models have much better data on storm strength, movement and thermal profile...all of which are critical in determining how much rain or snow will fall in Minnesota, and where.

This is why you've heard me talk about the futility of trying to predict snowfall totals more than 24 to 48 hours in advance. The forecast models just don't have enough accurate data on the storm until the system moves over the west coast!

If we had to wait even longer to sample storms coming off the Pacific it could be a disaster on model accuracy with winter storms. Forecasting winter storms is already one of the most difficult forecasts a meteorologist in Minnesota has to make. I can't imagine how much worse the projections would be without accurate and timely upper air data feeding into the models every 12 hours!

PH

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So how do they measure that snow anyway?

Posted at 8:51 AM on February 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter/spring 2011

We're at 74.9" of snowfall at MSP Airport so far this winter.

This is already the 10th snowiest winter on record.

We're now ahead of the pace for the snowiest winter on record which was 98.6" back in 1983-'84.

Last weekend's blockbuster storm was also the biggest February snowfall on record for the Twin Cities.

How do they measure snow, anyway?

Many of you have asked how snow gets measured. Here's the deal.

-Pick a hard flat area away from building or other obstructions that can alter snowfall patterns. A white deck surface works best, or you can create what's called a "Boluay Board" which is basically a 16" white plastic board. This technique was developed by Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the Minnesota State Climatology office. (We can be proud he's one of our own!)

-Use a ruler and take several measurements, and then use an average to minimize any effects of drifting.

-Clean the board off in between measurements during a storm to get a true estimate of actual snowfall without the effect of compaction.

-To measure snow depth, pick a similar area, but don't clean off the board to measure. This gives a true measure of snow depth, including compaction resulting for the weight of the snow.

The Twin Cities NWS uses 2 main products to report snowfall. One is the Local storm report (LSR). This is used to relay snowfall and severe weather reports as they arrive from NWS personnel and trained spotters. These reports are issued individually or in groups as they are received. Here's an example of an LSR for snowfall.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

0640 AM SNOW MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
02/22/2011 M13.8 INCH HENNEPIN MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

OBSERVED AT MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

Snowfall summaries are generally grouped and processed using the Public Information Statement (PIO). These summaries may contain all snowfall reports starting with the highest accumulations.

Because they contain multiple reports over irregular periods of time, PIO snowfall reports may not always be current reflection of snowfall totals at any given location if (volunteer) observers have not measured for a few hours. People should be careful to check the issuance time of PIO snowfall reports during snow events.

Here's a PIO form our recent storm.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 20TH-21ST STORM SYSTEM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
20.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0830 PM
19.60 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0825 PM
19.00 3 NW EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0515 PM
18.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0937 PM
18.00 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0519 PM
17.50 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0840 AM
16.30 1 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
15.50 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0900 AM
15.10 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0814 PM
15.10 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0820 PM
15.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0500 PM
15.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0552 PM
15.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0845 AM
14.20 1 N PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0930 PM
14.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1002 PM
14.00 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
14.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0809 PM
14.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0730 PM
13.60 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1024 PM
13.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1210 PM
13.80 MINNEAPOLIS(MSP AIRPORT) MN HENNEPIN 1240 AM
13.70 CHANHASSEN (NWS OFFICE) MN CARVER 1240 AM
13.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0610 AM
13.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1013 AM
12.90 3 WNW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
12.70 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0203 PM
12.70 1 NW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 PM
12.60 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0638 PM
12.50 CARVER MN CARVER 0700 AM
12.40 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0907 PM
12.40 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
12.30 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0845 AM
12.00 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0500 PM
12.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0333 PM
12.00 LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
12.00 3 N BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0730 AM
12.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0854 PM
11.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0710 AM
11.50 MILROY MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
11.10 BLAINE MN ANOKA 0917 PM
11.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 1000 PM
11.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0800 PM
11.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0702 AM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
11.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0800 PM
10.60 3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0346 PM
10.60 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0803 AM
10.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0616 PM
10.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0420 PM
10.50 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0600 AM
10.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
10.30 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0335 PM
10.20 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0747 PM
10.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0600 PM
10.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0700 PM
10.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1245 PM
10.00 COMFREY MN BROWN 1210 PM
10.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1210 PM
10.00 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0828 AM
10.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0626 AM
10.00 EAU CLAIRE WQOW WI EAU CLAIRE 0500 AM
10.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1100 PM
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
10.00 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 PM
10.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0530 PM
9.70 WACONIA MN CARVER 0803 AM
9.70 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
9.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0936 PM
9.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0615 PM
9.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0540 PM
9.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 1145 AM
9.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0728 AM
9.00 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0700 AM
9.00 LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
9.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0151 AM
8.90 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0915 PM
8.60 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
8.50 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0815 AM
8.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1240 AM
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
8.10 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0829 AM
8.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0200 PM
8.00 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0800 AM
8.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
8.00 2 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0731 AM
8.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
8.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0725 AM
8.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0700 AM
8.00 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0700 AM
8.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0552 AM
8.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0338 PM
7.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
7.50 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM

Note the wide range (from 9.5" Stillwater to 19.6" Bloomington) just within the metro in bold. Here's the map.

Snowfall measurement is not perfect, but it is generally an accurate reflection of what's falling if done correctly. Multiple snowfall reports from several locations are valuable and can be checked against each other to see if any totals are well out of range. Keep in mind that snowfall can vary over short distances with thundersnow and banded snowfall patterns.

Arctic rewind:

Arctic air is oozing south from Canada as we close the week. Expect temperatures to run a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average (Metro averages now 32/16) into Saturday.

Arctic air oozes south.

Expect highs in the teens north and 20s south today. Arctic high pressure will strengthen through Saturday with highs in the teens south to single digits north. Lows could dip below zero south Friday & Saturday morning, and plunge into the -20s north.

With the center of high pressure ovehead Saturday, at least winds should be light.

Temperatures should recover into the 20s by Sunday.

We may see a few snow showers Friday, and there is a chance for some light snow south Saturday. A bigger snow storm may head for Chicago Sunday into Monday, but looks to pass south of our area. Right now I don't see any blockbuster snow events on the horizon...so far.

PH

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A little thaw, but cold air to dominate

Posted at 4:43 PM on February 22, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

After morning temperatures that dipped as cold as 11 below zero at Crane Lake, and 6 below at Princeton, southwest winds pushed in some relatively milder air this afternoon.

Late this afternoon temperatures were in the upper teens and twenties. The mercury will not drop much tonight as the moderation continues. The best chance for snow accumulating a couple of inches later tonight and Wednesday is over far northern Minnesota, including the Arrowhead.

A dome of chilly air will settle in over the upper Midwest on Thursday. This should keep the northern extent of significant snow accumulation around northern Illinois.

Here's the latest thinking from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for the most favored area to see four inches or more of snow on Thursday night and Friday.

Yesterday we showed the outlook into the first week of March indicating a continuation of colder than normal temperatures for our region.

With the arctic air in control, heavy accumulations of precipitation may rim the state the next several days. Here's a projection of precitation, in liquid form, for the next five days. Lighter amounts of moisture could still result in a couple of inches of snow in Minnesota, but nothing major. But stay tuned. Models struggle with systems as we approach the spring season. Sunset is nearing 6PM CST

Blockbuster storm sets records; Metro range 7" to 17"

Posted at 8:06 AM on February 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

There are still patchy areas of snow and freezing drizzle falling around Minnesota today as the storms trailing upper level low pressure system gradually pulls out of Minnesota.

As the storm eases and we have a chance to dig out from another whopper, it is evident some records have fallen.

Storm character:

This was an "interesting" storm. (How could a 17" not be "interesting" right?)
Each storm is different. This one was slow getting going, and featured patchy snowfall coverage early on. There were bands of heavy snow (south metro) next to snow free areas (north metro). Pockets of dry air on the storms northern edge limited snowfall for several hours in north metro communities.

The storm also had huge east-west coverage, but was relatively narrow north to south. At one point Sunday it was snowing from Idaho to Pennsylvania! At the same time the snow/ice band was relatively narrow north to south, with precip bracketed between the south metro and northern Iowa.

Storm had a big east-west "stretch" Sunday.

Snowfall range:

Snowstorms are not homogeneous in terms of producing snowfall. There are large variations in snowfall over relatively small distances, often due to localized convective snowbursts or "thundersnow" within the storm. The "banded" structure of heavy snow can produce big ranges in snowfall over short distances.

As expected, this storm produced a big range in snowfall totals, even within the heaviest snow band and across the metro. The heaviest snowfall band set up from near Montevideo (10.5") eastward along the Minnesota River Valley (8"-10") into the south metro (10" to 17") to Eau Claire (9.5").

In the Twin Cities metro area, snowfall reports indicate the overall snowfall range appears to be 7" to 17".

Eden Prairie 17"
Forest Lake & Isanti 7"

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
759 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 20TH-21ST WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
17.00 NW EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1030 PM
16.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0713 AM
13.30 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0729 AM
13.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0610 A
12.50 ENE ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0530 AM
12.30 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST
PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
12.00 3 N BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0730 AM
12.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
12.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0553 AM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0854 PM
12.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0803 AM
11.80 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0915 PM
11.60 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1029 PM
11.50 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0130 AM
11.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
11.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0702 AM
11.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0701 AM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
10.60 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0539 AM
10.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
10.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0909 PM
10.30 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0529 AM
10.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0626 AM
10.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0600 AM
10.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0600 AM
10.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0500 AM
10.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1100 PM
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
9.70 WACONIA MN CARVER 0803 AM
9.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0936 PM
9.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0728 AM
9.00 LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
9.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0151 AM
8.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0658 AM
8.60 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0653 AM
8.40 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 PM
8.00 2 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0731 AM
8.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0730 AM
8.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0725 AM
8.00 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0700 AM
8.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0613 AM
8.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0600 AM
8.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0552 AM
7.50 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0554 AM
7.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0610 AM
7.00 5 NE FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0441 AM
6.80 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 1015 PM
6.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0743 AM
6.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0600 AM
6.50 BLAINE MN ANOKA 1001 PM
6.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0530 AM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
6.00 2 NNW WAITE PARK MN STEARNS 1057 PM
5.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
5.90 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1115 PM
5.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0815 PM
5.10 CAMERON WI BARRON 0843 PM
4.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 1127 PM
4.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
3.50 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0858 PM

The north metro piled up less snow due to drier air early in the storm, as heavy snow bands set up over and pummeled the southern metro.

The latest snowfall summary from NWS is here.

Records fall:

Reports are still coming in, but it appears the storm set several snowfall records.

-Eden Prairie's 17" broke the all time daily state snowfall record for Minnesota for Feburary 20th. (Previoud record was Marshall with 16" on Feb 20th 1952.)

-MSP's 12.3" is the all time biggest February snowstorm on record at Twin Cities Aiport. (Previous was 10.7" Feb. 1-2, 2004)

-Season snowfall at MSP Airport so far is now a whopping 72.9"! This ranks as the 11th snowiest winter on record, and the 3rd snowiest to date so far.

NWS: 3rd snowiest winter to date at MSP.

Flood outlook: Storm adds moisture to snowpack

It looks like the storm added another .50" to 1.2" of water to snowpack across much of southern Minnesota, especially in the Minnesota River watershed. This will certainly not help improve the spring flood scenario.

It looks like the overall snow:water ratio for the storm ended up at around 14:1 in the metro.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

location/max temp/min temp/precip/snowfall/snow depth

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 28 / 21 / 0.86/ 10.0/ 17
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 27 / 23 / 0.89/ 12.3/ 14
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 27 / 20 / 0.55/ 5.9/ 12

CLSM5: CARLOS MN : DH0554/ M / M / 0.41/ 8.0/ 16
MPXM5: CHANHASSEN WFO : DH0554/ 26 / 21 / 0.88/ 11.2/ 11
FORM5: FOREST LAKE MN : DH0700/ 30 / 6 / 0.69/ 7.5/ 9
HSTM5: HASTINGS L/D MN : DH0600/ 25 / 21 / 1.10/ 10.0/ 17
KIMM5: KIMBALL MN : DH0554/ 25 / 18 / 1.03/ 4.0/ 12
LCHM5: LITCHFIELD MN : DHM / M / M / 0.89/ 8.0/ M
LTFM5: LITTLE FALLS MN : DHM / M / M / 0.32/ 6.5/ 15
LNGM5: LONG PRAIRIE MN : DH0600/ 22 / 13 / 0.29/ 3.5/ 12
LSAM5: LWR ST ANTHONY MN : DH0600/ M / M / 0.87/ M/ M
MGNM5: MORGAN MN : DH0554/ M / M / 1.20/ 11.0/ 19
RDWM5: RED WING L/D MN : DH0600/ 28 / 24 / 0.80/ 6.0/ M
REWM5: REDWOOD FALLS MN : DH0500/ 24 / 19 / 0.94/ 10.5/ 24
SCSM5: ST CLOUD ST MN : DH0530/ M / M / 0.57/ 6.2/ 12

The weather over the next 2-4 weeks is still the primary wild card in determining how severe spring flooding is. Major to record flooding is still likely per the NWS spring flood outlook.

PH

Comment on this post

Eden Prairie 17"! Patchy snow Monday

Posted at 10:41 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

There's an old saying in weather offices. "Never rush a good snowstorm."

Our latest winter barrage took its time getting here, and then delivered a fierce punch.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

1030 PM SNOW NW EDEN PRAIRIE M17.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

The worst may be over, but the snow is still falling in some areas this Presidents' Day. As the trailing upper level low pressure system slowly pulls out Monday, Occasional snow will linger for much of the day in some areas.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue into Monday.

-Latest Twin Cties radar loop

What to expect Monday:

Snowfall intensity has decreased overnight, but some bands of moderate to at times heavy snow will linger, especially north metro and points north. The plows will have a chance to work on the roads overnight, but expect slick and slow conditions if you do have to commute Monday morning.

Some "wrap around" on the back side of the low as it pulls away could produce another 1" to 3" in many spots, especially north of the metro Monday.

The NAM is cranking out another .23" of liquid Monday. If that verifies, some areas could pick up another 2" to 4" closer to the metro.

Snowfall totals so far:

There have been some eye popping snowfall totals with this storm!

Here are some selected totals from NWS as of late Sunday night.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1008 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY FEB 20TH...

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0843 PM
14.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0809 PM
13.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0800 PM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
11.80 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0915 PM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
11.00 1 ESE CARVER MN SCOTT 0800 PM
10.80 3 W ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0745 PM
HIGHLAND PARK AREA OF ST. PAUL.
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
10.00 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0845 PM
8.60 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 PM
8.40 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 PM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0745 PM
DOWNTOWN MANKATO AREA...
7.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0750 PM
6.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0900 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0809 PM
5.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0815 PM
5.10 CAMERON WI BARRON 0843 PM
2.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0800 PM

You can get the latest individual totals here.

The latest snowfall summary is here.

A "Top 10" Winter!

The 13" recorded at MSP Airport puts the season snowfall total at a whopping 74.1"! If we pick up just another .3" of snow Monday that will put us in the top 10 snowiest winters on record for MSP!

State snowfall record smashed:

UM Climate Guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley sends word that we will likely break the all time state record for snowfall for February 20th!

With 15 inches of new snow at Bloomington, and much more to come I think it is safe to bet we will break the all-time state record for snowfall on February 20th ......that dates back to 1952 at Marshall when they received 16 inches. Observer at Hutchinson must be over 85 inches on the season so far.....

Mark

As you see above, the 17" total at Eden Prairie has smashed the record.

Thanks Mark... (I think!)

Join me on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer starting at 6:45am and Midmorning with Kerri Miller at 9am Monday for the latest storm wrap up.

What a winter!

PH

Comment on this post

Update: Bloomington 15"! Snowfall range 10" to 20" by Monday

Posted at 8:54 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 9:20pm:

UM Climate Guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley sends word that we will likely break the all time state record for snowfall for February 20th!

With 15 inches of new snow at Bloomington, and much more to come I think it is safe to bet we will break the all-time state record for snowfall on February 20th ......that dates back to 1952 at Marshall when they received 16 inches. Observer at Hutchinson must be over 85 inches on the season so far.....

Mark

Thanks Mark... (I think!)

PH

Update 8:50PM:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
843 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0843 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M15.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Update 8:20pm:

0809 PM SNOW EDEN PRAIRIE M14.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED AMOUNT IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF
CITY.

0830 PM SNOW 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD M11.0 INCH RAMSEY MN
TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER SNOW REPORTED AROUND 730 PM. STORM TOTAL SO
FAR...

Evening radar trends:

Latest MSP radar loop shows southern edge of snowfall lifting north toward the metro.

One of two things may happen by midnight.

1) The back edge of precip shuts off snowfall (at least temporarily) as it moves into the metro.

2) The northward progress of the back edge stops as the snow axis reaches the "pivot point" of the storm. If that happens the snow bands could stall right over the metro, especially the northern metro.

Either scenario may fit with the idea of snow tapering off a bit after midnight. Precip has already ended for now in much of southern Minnesota.

Get the latest individual snowfall totals here.

Latest snowfall summary here. (Some totals may not be up to the minute)

Stay tuned!

PH

Update 7pm:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0600 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M13.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

Latest snowfall totals here.

The latest "Minnesota Snow Blitz" has been a little finicky, but is delivering on the promise of a wind driven heavy snowfall "event."

The storm was a little slow getting started, and produced some spotty snowfall coverage early. Since then, the storm has ramped up to full fury.

**Based on the storm's progression I am sticking to my forecast of 10" to 20" storm total snowfall in the heavy snow band, which I expect to run from the Minnesota River Valley through the south metro to near Red Wing.

-Snowfall has now reached 10" in some areas form the south metro to the Minnesota River.

Montevideo 10.5"
St. Peter 10"
Mankato 10"
Bloomington & Burnsville now 10" to 13"

-The storm's "deformation zone" is stretching out from east to west near the metro, and I still expect another 12 to 18 hours of accumulating snowfall, through noon Monday. The storm is about halfway over in many areas!

-The heaviest snowfall rates should come between now and midnight, as bands of heavy snowfall push up from southern Minnesota ahead of the storms upper air center, or "vorticity max."

Modles still cranking out a 10" to 18" total snowfall range at MSP Airport.

-Howling winds will create blizzard conditions in much of southwest and west central Minnesota. Wind gusts over 60mph have been recorded in South Dakota!

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect into Monday!

(click to enlarge)

Some people say never to tell Minnesotans not to drive; I am not one of those. Given the wind and intense snowfall rates and blowing snow it would be foolish to attempt travel tonight. There have literally been hundreds of accidents today, and dozens of injuries. Do not attempt travel tonight unless it absolutely urgent.

Here are some of the latest snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS OF 500 PM FEBRUARY 20-21 WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0445 PM
8.50 1 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0430 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
8.20 1 NW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0455 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
8.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0338 PM
7.00 2 NW REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0512 PM
7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0430 PM
7.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0400 PM
7.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0247 PM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1117 AM
6.70 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM
6.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0338 PM
6.00 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0430 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
6.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0430 PM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0400 PM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0112 PM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1229 PM
6.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1038 AM
5.90 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM
5.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0444 PM
5.80 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1023 AM
5.50 1 N PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0320 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0127 PM
5.50 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1038 AM
5.40 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM
HIGHLAND PARK
5.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1117 AM
5.00 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1038 AM
4.90 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0230 PM
4.80 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0400 PM
4.50 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0420 PM
4.50 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0245 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
4.40 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0330 PM
4.30 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM
4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1200 PM
ONE HALF MILE WEST OF TOWN.
4.20 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0145 PM
4.10 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0316 PM
4.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0420 PM
4.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0152 PM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1023 AM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 1 S TRIMONT MN MARTIN 1023 AM
4.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
3.60 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1137 AM
3.50 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0445 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0105 PM
3.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1038 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1023 AM
3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0445 PM
3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0145 PM
3.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
3.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 1229 PM
3.00 WASECA MN WASECA 1023 AM
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1023 AM
NEAR HIGHLAND PARK
2.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0302 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0105 PM
0.24 INCHES OF MOISTURE
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1229 PM
1.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0512 PM
1.40 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0512 PM
1.20 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0445 PM

PH

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Storm Rages: Bloomington 9"! 2" in past hour!

Posted at 4:20 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 5:25pm:

0445 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M9.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0455 PM SNOW 1 NW BURNSVILLE M8.2 INCH DAKOTA MN NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

Update 4:45pm:

"Snomageddon" now in Deephaven and much of the metro with 1/4 mile visibility band of heavy snow (1/4S+) moving through! Snowfall rates now 1" per hour in metro.

Snow burst with visibilities at or under 1/4 mile in metro.
(click to enlarge!)

Heavy snow burst with dramatically reduced visibility.

Blowing snow with gusty winds.

Latest snowfall totals here:

0338 PM SNOW LESTER PRAIRIE E8.0 INCH MCLEOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0338 PM SNOW SHAKOPEE 44.77N 93.48W
02/20/2011 M6.5 INCH SCOTT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M7.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0400 PM SNOW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
02/20/2011 M5.4 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGHLAND PARK

0400 PM SNOW WILLMAR 45.12N 95.05W
02/20/2011 M4.8 INCH KANDIYOHI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
02/20/2011 M6.0 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW SW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
02/20/2011 M6.7 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Update 4pm:

Heavier snow band now moving into metro form the south. Expect snowfall intentsity to pick up during the hour, and coverage to increase in the north metro.

Heavy snow band moving north into metro.

Here are some upated snow totals:

Shakopee 6.5"
Bloomington 5.9"
Prior Lake 5.5"
SW Minneapolis 4.5"
Minnetonka 4.3"
Chanhassen (NWS) 4.1"

I still expect the peak of the storm between now and midnight. With 6.5" down so far in Shakopee, snow totals over a foot are still possible, especially in the south metro.

PH

****Update 3pm****

Every storm is different.

This one is throwing us some curves so far in the weather lab.

Radar and satellite trends:

Bands of moderate to heavy snow have been pummeling towns along the Minnesota River Valley all day.

Twin Cities radar loop shows both bands of heavy snows and dry pockets through mid-afternoon.