Updraft Category Archive: Winter

Icy mixture dominated by snow over the Twin Cities this afternoon

Posted at 2:16 PM on January 27, 2013 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms

Shortly after 2 p.m. CST large snowflakes were accumulating across the Twin Cities metro area. Radar indicated this band of snow will advance slowly from southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Snow could accumulate 2 to 3 inches by dark.

Radar screen capture at 205 p.m. CST. Source:NOAA/Weather underground

Snow was mixed with freezing rain and sleet to the south of the Twin Cities. Precipitation is likely to reach up to St. Cloud and Hayward, Wis., by 3 p.m. CST.

The National Weather Service has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include counties north of the metro and into parts of northwest Wisconsin for this afternoon and evening.

National Weather Service expanded Winter Weather Advisory in blue with a Winter Storm Warning continuing through this evening in the pink shaded area.

Snow, sleet and freezing rain will make travel extremely hazardous. Travel with caution. The precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and evening.

Winter Outlook 2012-'13: Unprecedented "El Nino mystery" complicates forecast

Posted at 7:10 PM on November 1, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

Winter 2012-'13 Outlook Headlines:

"This year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September."

-NOAA's Mike Halpert on the unprecedented onset and demise of El Nino in 2012.

El Nino head fake unprecedented "false start" El Nino faded, but regenerating?

Few clear atmospheric trends to shape upcoming winter outlook

Few "oscillation" clues AO, NAO, PDO trends offer little guidance, but recent "blocking patterns" may persist

Condition "neutral" Siberian snow cover near average this fall

Uncharted waters What role will record loss of Arctic Sea ice in 2012 play this winter?

Warmer background hum Decadal trends support warmer winters in Minnesota, especially at night

Wildly variable season snowfall totals in the Twin Cities in the past decade

Weather Lab Winter Outlook 2012-'13: Few clues to hang your hat on

Welcome to November!

The 5 months that can qualify for "winter" in Minnesota are here. Lately it seems our "Forrest Gump" weather patterns in Minnesota are like a "box of chocolates."

You never know what you're going to get.

At this point the view of winter from the weather lab confirms that notion.

I had hoped to get this outlook out last week, but honestly the intense workload from hurricane Sandy got in the way. I was kind of hoping the delay would reveal some more atmospheric clues as to upcoming winter weather patterns. It didn't...except for one possibility.

As always, remember a few things about seasonal forecasts, and use this outlook with caution & amusement.

-I'm not a seasonal weather forecast expert.

-Forecasts leading into last winter were perhaps the most off the mark ever

"For entertainment purposes only" might be the best way to view this winter's outlook. Given the lack of clear atmospheric signals as we turn the corner into winter, my confidence is relatively low at this point as to what winter will bring.

Still it's fascinating to watch these trends unfold, and to discuss them in some level of detail.

So with the preamble and disclaimers complete, here's a bare bones look at the Weather Lab Winter Outlook for 2012-'13.

Key seasonal factors for Winter of 2012-'13:

1) El Nino: Unprecedented "head fake"

It seems the word "unprecedented" is best to describe the wild swings and unusual weather pattern we're seeing in Minnesota the past few years.

That applies to the on again-off again "attempted" El Nino late this summer and fall.

Never before has an El Nino begun to form in the tropical Pacific, and then shut down in the fall.

NOAA elaborates in their Winter Outlook.

"This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."

El Nino winters show about a 70% statistical bias toward milder winters in Minnesota. Without El Nino, the landscape of temperatures in Minnesota this winter is more unclear.

Still the last week seems to have shown some signs of anomalous warming in the tropical Pacific. The latest weekely SST anomalies show a growing area of +0.5C to +1.0C in the tropical pacific.

Is it just a warm blip that will again disappear? Or is it the start of what may be a "better late than never" El Nino event this winter?

Only time will tell.

At this point I'd say there's still at least 60% chance that some level of El Nino (Pacific SST's +0.5 or greater) may develop this winter. I am still favoring the development of El Nino conditions this winter.

Trend: Favors developing El Nino & milder winter vs. average temps overall

The Oscillations: Little help, but "blocking patterns" may persist

Meet the "oscillations." There's the Arctic Oscillation (AO) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to name a few.

As their names imply, all live in different areas of the northern hemisphere, and operate on different time scales.

We've learned a lot about weather patterns driven by these oscillations over the past few decades, but there's still much more we don't know about these atmospheric "teleconnections."

The AO can be the dominant force in winter weather in the USA & Europe.

The last 2 winters have seen dramatic swings in the phase and magnitude of the AO.

Last winter's AO & NAO were strongly positive. The result? The 4th mildest winter on record and a scant 22.3" season snwofall.

The previous winter saw just the opposite. A strongly negative AO presided over temps -3F as MSP got buried under 86.6" of snowfall...the 4th snowiest winter on record.

In October the AO trended negative, and produced the first colder than average month in Minnesota since May 2011.

A negative AO tends to produce the type of 'blocking patterns" we say with Hurricane Sandy's unprecedented track. That can mean big north-south undulations in the jet stream that can bring alternating warm and cold snaps for Minnesota...and the potential for some big snow storms if enough cold air is present.

Unfortunately we can't forecast the AO more than about 2 weeks out. Current forecast trend more positive as we head into November. But overall there have been a lot of changes in AO phase this year.

I am leaning toward that trend continuing, a trend and I think that has the potential to produce significantly more snowfall that last winter's "stuck" positive AO phase.

Trend: Changeable AO/NAO this winter. Periodic negative phases will favor a few arctic more outbreaks and a few bigger snow storms in the Upper Midwest. Overall trend favors more snowfall than last winter.

Siberian Snow Cover: No clues

Lately some climate watchers have locked onto trends in Siberian snow cover in the fall as a clue to the upcoming winter forecast in the USA & Europe. The theory goes, if there's above average snowfall & snow cover in Siberia in fall, look out for a harsh winter in the USA.

This fall, snow cover in Siberia has run pretty close to average... give or take.

There has been a slight positive trend in snow cover over northwest & central Canada this fall, which has me a little concerned (hopeful?) that a jet stream may want to develop over the Rockies early this winter and speed into Minnesota.

If that SW-NE oriented jet sets up, we could see more frequent rain/snow systems aiming at Minnesota in the next 60 days.

The rain would be a great thing for soils before freeze up. The snow could get us an early start on winter snowfall totals.

Overall snowfall trends don't seem to point to a clear direction for the upcoming winter.

Trend: Near average Siberian snow cover this fall gives few clues to USA winter. Slightly positive snow cover in Canada may favor wetter pattern (rain or snow) in November & December for Upper Midwest?

Uncharted (Arctic) Waters: How will record Arctic Sea ice loss in 2012 play out?

We've just witnessed another unprecedented event in the Arctic in 2012. The record low in Arctic Sea ice peaked in September.

We've lost a full 70% of ASI volume since satellite observations began in 1979.

As I pointed out earlier today with Hurricane Sandy, there are some studies suggesting that a warmer Arctic makes blocking patterns more frequent.

This may allow more frequent dips in the jet stream over North America and the USA thus winter...and that may mean more arctic outbreaks than last year.

WxUnderground's Jeff Masters elaborates.

Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S.

Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters.

Trend: Record low Arctic Sea ice this summer may lead to more frequent cold air intrusions into the Midwest this winter compared to last winter.

Solar cycle peak: favoring a more positive AO?

This one may have a smaller impact that many other factors, but I found it interesting that the coming peak in Solar Cycle 24 may play a role in favoring a more postitve AO.

Again Jeff Masters expoundes:

Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature."

The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.

Trend: Coming peak of Solar Cycle 24 may favor more positive AO and a potentially milder winter.

Background Hum: Decadal trends favor warmer winter in Minnesota.

Behind all the short term and seasonal trends and fluctuations are distinct, decades long trends toward milder winters in Minnesota. Think of it as the elevator "Muzak" paying in the background of all the seasonal "teleconnections" plates spinning in the air.

The latest set of 30-year averages that came out last year shows Minnesota winters are now 2F to 4F warmer. than just a few decades ago.

The biggest temp increases are at night, in winter.

Last winter's record warmth continued this trend.

Our warming climate is a bigger picture factor that seems to buck, and even trump all other factors that want to produce a colder than average winter.

Recent data shows Minnesota is the 3rd fastest warming state in the USA, and that warming has accelerated since 1970.

Trend: Decadal trend of warming in the Upper Midwest favors milder than average winters.

Weather Lab Winter Outlook 2012-'13: The specifics

I agree with NOAA that this will be one of the most difficult winter seasons in recent memory to forecast. There just isn't any clear, distinct trend or piece of data to hang your weather hat on this winter.

Based on everything I'm looking at this fall, longer term trends, current atmospheric teleconnections and the law of averages...I think the hopefully obvious safe play is to forecast more snow and cold than the 4th warmest winter on record in Minnesota last year, but probably not the 86.6" "blitz" we saw in 2010-'11.

Yes, there's a hole as big as a Mack Truck to drive through between the extremes of the past 2 winters in Minnesota. We'll probably end up somewhere in that gaping hole.

Still I can't help but think we may be in for some surprises this winter. Why should this winter be any different in producing the gamut of "unprecedented" swings we've seen the past few years.

Confidence is not high this winter...but here's my best crack at the winter of 2012'-13 for the Twin Cities & beyond.

Overall trends:

I expect bigger week to week and month to month fluctuations this winter compared to last winter in both temperature and snowfall.

Snowfalls and cold arctic outbreaks will likely be punctuated by milder weeks that may eat away at snow cover this winter.

The overall character of this winter should be colder and snowier than last year.

Temperature: (December-February) Milder than average

Overall I am leaning toward a winter that's still warmer than average, but noticeably colder than last winter.

MSP & most of Minnesota +1F to +3F (December through February)

I also think we'll many more sub-zero night that last winter's paltry 3...but far fewer than the longer term average of 39. At this point I'd lean toward 10 to 15 nights below zero in the metro this winter.

Snowfall: (Total season snowfall) Near average

40" to 50" for the Twin Cities metro area.

If you have to pin me down on a number...I'll pick 42.5" for MSP Airport.

I think there will be enough cold air to generate higher snowfall totals in northern Minnesota this winter. I could see some 50" to 70" totals up north.

The long term average season snowfall for the metro dating back 125 years is 45.6".

Again, confidence is not high this winter. The biggest thing I'll be watching the next few weeks is the possible development of El Nino in the Pacific. If a full blown El Nino does develop, it will increase my confidence in another milder than average winter this year.

The other factor is the extent of late November & early December snowfall and snow cover in Minnesota. If we get some decent snowfall early, it's going to favor a colder temp bias as we head into the teeth of winter. If not, temps will tend to run warmer than average as we head towared Christmas.

Overall this should be a better winter for snow & winter "enthusiasts" than last year.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

Not much of a dent in the drought; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center releases winter outlook

Posted at 3:36 PM on October 18, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter

When I started my career with NOAA more than forty years ago any forecast beyond 48 hours was considered an outlook. The National Weather Service gradually extended its predictions to the current seven day forecast, with weekly and monthly outlooks, as well as seasonal outlooks. I haven't had much success myself in making predictions beyond five days.

When it comes to the drought, the trend of dry weather in our neck of the woods is no longer our friend. Recently, the GFS model has teased east central Minnesota with the potential for upwards of an inch of rain. See Paul's previous posts.

So far this October the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has tallied less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Perhaps we can accumulate a tenth of an inch of rain on the back side of this strong weather system on Friday.

Winds have gusted to near 75 mph at Pierre, South Dakota today. If this storm occurred later in November it could have delivered quite a wicked wintry punch. As it was, blowing dust reduced visibilities to below two miles in parts of Nebraska. Winds hammered the region from the Dakotas to Kansas.

NAM at 4am CDT Friday. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage

Note how the NAM forecast sweeps precipitation west and north of the Twin Cities overnight. The strong low pressure begins to fill/weaken as it spins east in the next 24 hours.

The latest drought monitor map paints the desperate need for moisture. A quarter inch of rain in west central and southwest Minnesota overnight and into Friday will likely be evaporated back to the atmosphere Saturday.

This forecast of the five day rainfall total potential into early next week shows precipitation minimums over the Twin Cities Metro area.

Source:NOAA

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Until NOAA scientists see a trend that will redirect the jet stream, the forecast of persistent below normal precipitation will continue into the winter season.

Source:NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Here is a candid comment from the discussion out of the Climate Center when delivering today's winter outlook. "This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."

Meteorological winter includes the months of December, January and February. An updated outlook will be issued in mid November. NOAA often takes a final shot at the outlook on November 30th.

Enjoy what looks to be shaping up as a rather nice autumn weekend. Mianly dry skies and early autumn-like temperatures. Good weather for outdoor cleanup.

Maximum temperature for Saturday. Source:NWS/NOAA

Looks to be a nice day for the Gopher game at Madison on Saturday.

-Craig Edwards

Mild today; Winter outlook giving few clear signals so far

Posted at 8:48 AM on October 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter

Near 70 in the metro and southern Minnesota this afternoon

Spotty AM showers give way to slowly brighter skies this PM

Windy & colder and wetter tomorrow & Thursday

.58" NAM model rainfall output at MSP by Friday

60s return this weekend, fairly nice weekend ahead?

70s by next Thursday?

NOAA issues winter outlook Thursday

Murky - cloudy crystal ball on winter outlook this winter?

Weather Tip: This should be a good weekend for leaf raking

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Mild to wild: Weather roller coaster ahead

Get ready for some major ups & downs this week.

Today will be the mildest day this week. Spotty showers dot the radar today, and will slide east by afternoon. Brighter PM skies should help boost temps to near 70 in the south and west today.

The next cold front will be noticeable tomorrow. It starts with a pretty good chance of showers overnight into Wednesday AM.

The rain may beak for some sun tomorrow PM, then a big swirl of windy colder wetter air will spin south over Minnesota Thursday.

The models insist on a good shot at .50" of rainfall by Friday AM. It could be just cold enough to mix in a few snowflakes in parts of Minnesota by Thursday, but most of the precip should come down as badly needed rainfall.

Source: NOAA via ISU

Friday will transition to what looks like a partly sunny milder weekend. Highs should reach the 60s this weekend, and we may even see a stray 70 degree temps in southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon. This should be a good weekend to get those leaves up.

Source: NOAA & ISU

Next week look mild at this point....and a shot of Indian Summer like 70s could surge north by next Thursday.

Right now I don't see any major October snow surprises before Halloween.

Winter Outlook: Murky crystal ball

Various winter outlooks are trickling in as we approach the end of October and the start of the real window for winter weather November 1st.

NOAA will issue their winter outlook Thursday.

So far I've seen forecasts of 44.3" and 61" for metro snowfall this winter from various sources. We struggled to plie up 22.3" last winter, and dug out from 86.4" the previous year.

I must say, this looks like a difficult winter to forecast at this point.

What looked like a promising El Nino has so far failed to develop. What warm water there is so far in the Pacific is along the Baja & Mexican Coast in an unusual place.

The major "oscillations" like AO, NAO, PDO, PNA are yielding few clear signals so far.

Source: NOAA

Last winter the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was strongly positive, and produced the 4th mildest winter on record. It was also a La Nina year, which has a cold bias so go figure.

Snow cover in northwest Canada and Siberia is running near climatology in many areas.

Source: Rutgers Snow Lab

All things considered, there is no clear, smoking gun that points to a discernible trend in dominant jet stream patterns for the upcoming winter.

My guess is NOAA is likely to stick with the notion of a milder than average winter over much of the USA & Midwest when the outlook is issued Thursday, with a wetter than average signal along the southern USA. This would be typical of an El Nino signal.

Source: NOAA CPC

We'll see.

I want to see a few more data points before sticking my neck out with the Weather Lab winter outlook just yet. I'm looking for trends that will hopefully reveal a few things in the next 10 days or so. Look for Weather Lab temperature and snowfall outlooks in late October similar to last year's timing.

This is going to be an especially tough winter to predict, and no one can tell you they have the full answer key this year...or any year. Let's see if any stronger signals reveal themselves in the next 10 days.

Where did I stash that Magic Weather 8-Ball anyway?

PH

Long range outlooks, a roll of the dice

Posted at 6:10 AM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Climate, Winter, Winter 2011-12

We kept waiting for the other boot to drop and an old fashion Minnesota winter to beat us down. Here we are on the first day of meteorological spring and the outlook calls for rather mild conditions to continue in our neck of the woods.

NOAA's Winter Outlook released November 2011 indicated a fairly high confidence level of colder than normal temperatures. NOAA's winter outlook was similar to that made by others, including the Farmers Almanac.

Top Ten Warmest Meteorological Winters for the Twin Cities.

Rank Year Average Temperature (F)

1 1877-1878 29.0

2 1930-1931 26.9

3 2001-2002 26.8

4 2011-2012 26.2
5 1997-1998 25.9

6 1986-1987 25.8

7 1982-1983 24.0

8 1991-1992 23.5

9 1943-1944 23.5

10 1920-1921 23.2

Snowstorm totals provided by the National Weather Service Duluth, Whiteout conditions hammered Duluth to Silver Bay on Wednesday.

A daily record of 9.7 inches of snow was measured at Duluth on February 29th. The peak wind gust was 56 mph.

Check out the snowfall reports for central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin at the Chanhassen NWS web link.

Much needed moisture fell with this major storm. Here's a graphic of the cooperative observers reports. Precipitation in northeast Minnesota occurred after these observations were posted on Wednesday.

There was a phrase used in the weather lab that was often quoted when looking ahead, "the trend is your friend." Here's a look at NOAA's temperature outlook for March, favoring above normal tempratures. First order of business is to start the snow melt.

But in the meantime, get out this weekend and knock yourself out with playing in the snow. Temperatures should be seasonal. No big snows are see for Minnesota the next couple of days.

Have you heard about the warm-up coming? See this temperature forecast from the GFS model for Tuesday afternoon.

CE

Brace yourself! Wind and snow usher in 2012

Posted at 8:45 AM on December 31, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2011-12

A developing weather system over Minnesota and Iowa today is expected to generated precipitation in the form of snow and rain mixed with snow. All snow is likely later this evening in the Twin Cities.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for tonight through early Sunday due the prospects of strong winds and blowing snow.

From the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. The pink shaded area is for snow accumulations of two to three inches accompanied by winds as strong as 45 mph. The area shaded in blue is for lesser amounts of snow but still very strong winds.

Here's your link to the latest storm updates from the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Travel could be very difficult due to low visibilities in blowing snow and strong winds, as well as icy roadways.

Here's a look at the GFS model for sustained winds and temperatures on New Years morning.

Button down for winds gusting to 45 mph on Sunday. Wind chill readings will be sub zero.
CE

Coldest since March; 40s Sunday? Watching rain/snow next week

Posted at 10:13 PM on December 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter, Winter 2011-12

3 degrees - low temp in parts of the metro Friday morning

March 2nd last time we were that cold at MSP Airport (-3 degrees)

15 forecast high temp at MSP Friday

28 forecast high Saturday

38+ forecast highs by Sunday afternoon!

40s possible Sunday in snow free areas west of the metro

Brief Wintery Blast:

Grab the big coat Friday.

The coldest air in 9 months has invaded Minnesota. Temps should hover a few degrees either side of 0 in much of Minnesota early Friday morning, with some solid sub-zero readings up north. Even with bright sun Friday, temps will not recover out of the teens.

A milder Pacific breeze will begin to moderate temps slightly Saturday. Bank thermometers should manage to flash 28 by 3pm Saturday. By Sunday a milder Pacific air mass will work on melting some snow in southern Minnesota. Highs should top out in the upper 30s to near 40 in the metro, with some 40s possible in snow free areas west of the metro.

Sharp snow cutoff visible from space

Speaking of snow free areas, check out Thursday's MODIS Terra's 250 meter resolution visible image. You can clearly see several interesting features. Snow cover is evident along the Minnesota River into the Twin Cities. A sharp cutoff on the western edge of the snowpack runs just west of the metro, with bare ground out west in Hutchinson and Willmar.

You can see why forecasting snowstorms is one of the most difficult forecast meteorologists have to make. You can literally drive from 3" of snow to bare ground in about 5 minutes!

Possible "Panhandle Hook" next week?

I'm keeping an eye on a potential system for next Wednesday & Thursday. The GFS is spinning up a strong upper low in the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region early Wednesday.

The system should gulp down moisture from a wide open Gulf of Mexico and pump it north into Minnesota Wednesday.

They system appears warm enough for rain to start, but rain could change to snow as the low moves by Thursday.

It's way too early to tell how this might pan out, but there is a decent chance of rain and or snow next Wednesday & Thursday.

Stay tuned.

Artcic Report Card: Warmer

NOAA has an interesting video on changes in the Arctic as a result of persistent warming in recent decades.

2011: Year of Extreme Weather

NOAA also has a nice compilation of extreme "billion dollar" weather events in 2011.

"From extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms, a record 12 weather and climate disasters in 2011 each caused $1 billion or more in damages -- and most regrettably, loss of human lives and property."

Good to be back home:

I'm back form a week in Vegas visitng my best friend from college. It was a great week, but it's good to be back home!

There are some interesting things going on around Vegas in weather & water news. More on that tomorrow.

PH

Clearing skies, light winds and fresh snow cover add up to zero

Posted at 3:47 PM on December 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2011-12

A nice visible satellite image from around 3PM shows the clearing line through central Minnesota. As clouds break up overnight and winds drop off to less than five miles an hour, it we create ideal conditions for temperatures to chill down to at or below zero over the fresh snow cover.

The GFS forecast model paints the early Tuesday morning temperatures below zero in south central Minnesota. The pressure pattern and winds indicate the overall stillness in the chilly air mass.

Notice the cold temperatures in Colorado as well. Check out the computer model detailed resolution of the very cold mountain temperatures.

Minnesota will see a moderation in temperatures on Wednesday as relatively milder moves across the snow free landscape of western Minnesota. Fargo, North Dakota and Sioux Falls, South Dakota have accumulated less than an inch of snow so far this season. Another shot of cold air arrives for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures may reach the thawing point Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

This morning I was tracking the very heavy rains in Indiana and Kentucky. The Louisville, Kentucky NWS Office has recently posted a story that the Derby City has set a new annual precipitation record. And at mid afternoon the rain continued to fall.
CE

Snow just getting started

Posted at 12:34 PM on December 3, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2011-12

Satellite imagery, Doppler radar and surface reports were confirming that snow was increasing in Iowa and has now crossed into southern Minnesota. Shortly after the noon hour snow was reported at Preston in southeast Minnesota.

This enhanced water vapor satellite image indicated cloud tops cooling and a deeper moisture layer advancing across western Iowa. I believe this is associated with the stronger upper level dynamics that will produce heavier snow in southeast Minnesota this afternoon and into early tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight roughly south of a line from Worthington to Hayward, Wisconsin. Expect heavier snow to accumulate from about 3PM to 10PM. By midnight snowfall totals should range from one inch in Monticello to as much as six inches in Waseca.

I've been sorting through the short term model data this morning. Here's a pretty good graphic from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model displaying the expected snowfall from noon to about midnight. Note the potential for more than six inches in the yellow color.

Track the snowfall reports from the Chanhassen NWS Office from this web link.

Drive safely if you are out and about southeast Minnesota the remainder of the afternoon and tonight.
CE

Several inches of snow Saturday over southeast Minnesota

Posted at 3:41 PM on December 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter 2011-12

By late Saturday evening some locations in southeast Minnesota could be enjoying such a lovely snowfall.

As I commented on Morning Edition, you really don't rush a good snowstorm. On Saturday afternoon we should be seeing snow falling at a moderate rate from Mankato through the southern extent of the Metro and on into west central Wisconsin.

Moisture was beginning to concentrate to our southwest as depicted in this water vapor satellite image from mid afternoon. Tonight will remain quiet, but the main event kicks in during the late morning hours on Saturday.

The blue coloring indicates colder cloud tops.

Winter Weather Watches/Advisories and warnings extend from southwest to northeast, from New Mexico to Wisconsin.

Click on this link to weather.gov to navigate for detailed forecasts.

Snow could accumulate four or more inches Saturday afternoon from near Fairmont through Waseca, and Rochester to Red Wing and into western Wisconsin. For the Twin Cities metro, snow will be heaviest toward Lakeville, where three inches look to be a good bet for now.

By nature the heaviest snow falls roughly 150 miles north of the track of the center of lowest pressure. This is not a particularly strong surface system,thus the winds are expected to be tolerable.

Follow the details of this enfolding weather story here at mpr.org with the support of the National Weather Service Office in Chanhassen.
CE

Good-bye autumn and welcome winter

Posted at 3:40 PM on November 30, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Seasonal forecasting, Winter

Some may say that winter "officially" begins on the winter solstice, December 21st at 11:30 p.m. The climate and weather community consider the months of December, January and February to nicely frame the historic reference of winter temperatures and precipitation. Today we close the chapter on the driest autumn on record in the Twin Cities and anxiously anticipate the winter of 2011/2012. Temperatures on average were about three to five degrees above normal for November.

The State Climate Office posted this graphic of the departure from normal for precipitation in Minnesota since the last week of July. Many locations along the Minnesota River and south to the Iowa border tallied less than an inch and a half of moisture from September 1st to November 30th.

Late this afternoon light snow, mixed with some light rain, had developed through central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. This band of precipitation is likely to become all snow later this evening as it sags south across the Twin Cities. The gradual southeast drift should place most of the light snow south of the metro by daybreak. Accumulations are expected to be an inch or less.

Our attention on Thursday will turn to another weather maker that has the potential to produce snow in southeast Minnesota Saturday. Models are presenting opposing solutions for how far north snow will extend. Regradless, colder air will sweep into the Upper Midwest on Saturday night and Sunday. You'll get the taste of winter.

The Climate Prediction Center has released an updated outlook for December. It's a tossup on above or below normal temperatures. As you know, normal is sorted out with daily extremes. I suspect there could be some healthy swings in temperatures, thus we'll agree with the equal chance of above or below normal temperatures for December.

The 30-day precipitation outlook also has equal chances of above or below normal for Minnesota and the surrounding states.

NOAA's Climate Center has not yet released an updated outlook for the meteorological winter. The previous forecast indicated odds favoring below normal temperatures in Minnesota, issued on November 17th.

In other big weather news, you may be interested in this warning for strong winds in southern California later tonight and into Friday. From the National Weather Service in Oxnard:
THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 80 MPH OR GREATER THROUGH FAVORED MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND 60 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS WIND FAVORED COASTAL
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

Heavy snow in Stearns County! Snow fades; Chilly sun Sunday

Posted at 7:33 PM on November 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2011-12

Evening Update:

Snow winding down, but some incredible snowfall totals near St. Cloud!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAYS SNOW STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0413 PM
11.00 2 N SARTELL MN STEARNS 0407 PM
7.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0343 PM
7.00 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0157 PM
6.60 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0248 PM
STILL SNOWING. ABOUT 1/4 MILE VSBY.
6.50 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0517 PM
6.30 2 W FOLEY MN BENTON 0537 PM
6.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0430 PM
6.00 STARBUCK MN POPE 0207 PM
5.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0500 PM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
5.60 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0332 PM
5.50 11 NE WARMAN MN KANABEC 0630 PM
5.50 2 W FOLEY MN BENTON 0359 PM
5.50 SARTELL MN STEARNS 0257 PM
5.00 RICE MN BENTON 1226 PM
4.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0623 PM
4.00 STARBUCK MN POPE 0129 PM
3.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 PM
3.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0417 PM
3.20 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0500 PM
3.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0635 PM
3.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0553 PM
AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
3.00 ST AUGUSTA MN STEARNS 0321 PM
3.00 6 W BELLINGHAM MN LAC QUI PARLE 1215 PM
3.00 SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 1030 AM
2.80 PRINSBURG MN KANDIYOHI 0358 PM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0537 PM
2.50 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0139 PM
2.50 LOUISBURG MN LAC QUI PARLE 0936 AM
DISPATCH ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHERN LAC QUI PARLE
COUNTY. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW AT THIS TIME
IN MADISON.
2.20 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0612 PM
2.20 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0600 PM
2.10 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0542 PM
2.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0413 PM
1.80 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0545 PM
1.80 SARTELL MN STEARNS 1212 PM
1.70 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0542 PM
AT THE NWS
1.50 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0259 PM
1.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0257 PM
1.30 COMFREY MN BROWN 0445 PM
1.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0543 PM
AT THE CWSU.
1.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0537 PM
MEASURED AT THE CWSU.
1.00 LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0255 PM
0.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0607 PM
0.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0554 PM
0.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0407 PM
0.50 BENSON MN SWIFT 0936 AM
DISPATCH ESTIMATED HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN BENSON.

$$

Update 4:20 pm

I-494 & Penn Ave. moving along at dusk with some slippery ramps & bridges on metro freeways.

Mostly light snow now as the system is beginning to show signs of winding down over the next few hours. There may still be a brief period of moderate snow as the last bands move through this evening.

Radar shot shows snow in blue and mixed precip in pink south of the metro
(Click to enlarge image)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT traffic cams & info

Overall it looks like most areas in the metro will be at or under 1" total, but the heavier band of snow that developed the south & east metro earlier may produce some 2"+ totals.

This is an interesting system in that snowfall totals are highly variable over short distances within the metro. The heaviest snow totals are north of the metro toward St. Cloud.

Here are some snowfall totals through 4pm:

-Deephaven (west metro) .5"

-Bloomington & Burnsville 1.5"

-St. Cloud & Sartell 5"

****

Update 3pm:

Moderate snow band shifting southeast into southeast metro suburbs this afternoon.

Light snow continues in most of the metro.

Expect slick roads through tonight!

***

It's here!

Snowy coating at the weather lab in the west Metro Saturday afternoon!

Our first significant snow has finally arrived in much of southern and central Minnesota.

Snowy scene on I-494 & Highway 100 in the south metro

There are already some traffic incidents according to MNDOT.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT traffic cams

A snowy coating is already down in many areas, and latest indications are much of the metro will pick up 1" to 2" with some isolated 3" totals possible in the south & east metro. A narrow band of heavier snowfall has set up right over the south metro from near the Airport into St. Paul. If it persists, there could be some isolated 2" to 3" totals under this band! Look for heavier snow this afternoon in a band from Shakopee through Prior Lake, Bloomington, Highland Park, to St. Paul & southeast suburbs.

Bright yellow indicates heavier snow band in south & east metro! Just flurries in west metro.

Coverage is patchy though, and eventual snow totals look to be quite variable in the Twin Cities by tonight. At the Weather Lab in the west metro there is barely a snowy coating, with grass still quite visible.

Heavier snow totals of 2" to 5"+ will focus north of the metro, near St. Cloud and Willmar.

Prepare for some slick roads this afternoon and evening!

The latest model runs have upped snowfall by about an inch for the metro, as the storm has shfted slightly south.

NAM model lays down some potential 2" to 3" totals in and near the metro, with heavier snow to the north.

PH

Saturday Snow Update: Plowable north, Metro on the edge

Posted at 11:45 PM on November 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2011-12

Friday AM Update:

Overnight models are in support the Weather Lab thinking below. If any shift is noticed, it may be a slight shift to the north. This keeps the Metro on the southern edge of the storm, and could mean a rapid cut off in accumulations over the Twin Cities from northwest to southeast.

Latest NAM model shows heavy snow band of 6"+ through Alexandria, Brainerd and Duluth Saturday. Metro would see coating to 2" in this scenario.

Let's see if the Friday morning model runs confirm, or shift a little north again. Any further shift to the north could mean accumulating snowfall would mostly miss the metro to the north.

Enjoy the milder weather Friday!

PH

****

Updraft Headlines:

Winter Storm Watch posted for eastern South Dakota and far western Minnesota

Morris-Alexandria-Brainerd-Duluth Most likely axis for heaviest snowfall band of 3" to 6"+

80% chance Weather Lab estimate of a plowable (2"+) snowfall in Alexandria, Brainerd, Little Falls and Duluth

On the edge - Twin Cities on the southern edge of this storm

Getting closer!

We're within 48 hours of our first significant snowfall for much of central Minnesota.

The System & Track:

Most models agree on a relatively fast moving, moisture lean system that will track through Iowa into Wisconsin Saturday.

Here's what we think we can say with a high degree of confidence in the weather lab as of Thursday night.

-Confidence is growing that the heaviest snow band (3" to 6"+) will set up from eastern South Dakota through central Minnesota toward Duluth.

-A "plowable" snow of at least appears likely from Brown's Valley to Morris, Alexandria, Little Falls, Brainerd, Mille Lacs to Duluth.

NAM Model paints heaviest snow through central Minnesota, with Twin Cities on the edge. Yellow and green colors indicate 3"+ forecast snowfall.

-Model solutions still show some degree of variability, especially for the Twin Cities which lies on the southern edge of this system. As of Thursday night, the two most likely scenarios for the metro are light snow in the 1" to 3" range or a near miss to the north, with just a coating in many metro communities. Accumulating snow could still largely miss the (southern) metro to the north, or yet another shift south could increase snow totals. We'll make the final call Friday PM. At this point, little or no accumulation is expected south of the metro.

NAM & GFS model out put for metro varies between 0.7" and 2.9" snowfall Saturday.

-Bottom Line: Expect snow from the Twin Cities north Saturday and Saturday night. Significant accumulations are likely along I-94 between St. Cloud and Detroit lakes, and along I-35 north between North Branch and Duluth. Lesser accumulations are possible in the Twin Cities metro area Saturday night.

Stay tuned as we crunch the latest and hopefully definitive model runs tonight and Friday morning!

Soils beginng to freeze up!

My MPR colleague Mark Seeley highlights our first wintery outbreak in his Weather Talk blog.

"Topic: Snow across the north on November 15th

As a result of the very cold temperatures, the top 3-4 inches of soil began to freeze at University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Centers located at Waseca, Lamberton, Morris, and Crookston. This was true of the soils on the St Paul Campus as well. Drier soils more readily freeze up than wetter ones."

PH

Sun & warming trend return; 25 foot waves hammer Chicago!

Posted at 5:19 PM on October 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

Get ready for another ride on Minnesota's temperature roller coaster.

Thursday through Saturday: Sun returns- warming trend! Highs warming into the 50s to near 60 by Saturday!

Sunday & Monday: Still mild, shower chance? Highs near 60

Tuesday - Friday of next week: Cold snap. Codest air of the season so far. High int he 30s. Lows in the 20s.

Halloween weekend: Indian Summer? Highs near 60.

Halloween: Milder than average? Highs in the 50s?

GFS long range: Near 60 for Halloween?

Huge waves pound Chicago Lakefront:

Waves crash on the shore behind the Shedd Aquarium in Chicago, Wednesday afternoon, October 19, 2011. ((Heather Charles/ Chicago Tribune) / October 19, 2011)

The story from the Chicago Tribune.

"The lakefront bike and jogging path was closed this morning in the wake of warnings of high winds, high waves and lakeshore flooding.

Downed tree limbs and power lines are expected, and high-rise dwellers were advised to take in their balcony furniture to keep it from blowing away."

Siberian snow cover running at or below average in October:

One of the newest trends in long range forecasting is to watch snow cover anomalies in Siberia during September and October. There is some evidence to suggest that above average snowfall trends can shift circulation patterns in the northern hemisphere, which can in turn favor cold air outbreaks in the USA.

So far this October snow cover has been running near average over eastern Siberia, and below average in western Siberia.

We may not have enough data yet to suggest a bullet proof link, but so far in 2011 there is nothing that suggests enhanced Siberian snow cover would favor a colder than average winter in the northern USA.

I'm still evaluating the long range outlook for the winter of 2011-'12 in Minnesota. Next week I'll take a crack at some temperature and snowfall predictions for Minnesota this winter.

Stay tuned!

PH

Birds-eye view

Posted at 2:28 PM on February 22, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter

Satellite image from GEOS from about 1PM CST. Snowcover is somewhat masked by increasing clouds near the Iowa border from Fairmont to Caledonia. The visible images have much better resolution than years ago. You can clearly see the Minnesota River.

When I would give tours to school childern I would animate the images to highlight how the clouds move, but the snowcover doesn't. That is, unless temperatures are well above thawing and the snow is melting rapidly.

With regard to snowfall measurements and how they are officially tallied: Here is the directive from the National Weathe Service:

Measure and record the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard (wooden deck or ground if board is not available) since the previous snowfall observation. This measurement should be taken minimally once-a-day but can be taken up to four times a day, (every 6 hours) and should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) since the last snowfall observation.

Snowfall amounts can be measured hourly or at any interval as long as the snow measurement board is NOT cleared more frequently than once every 6 hours.

In short, snowfall and snow depth needs to be measured once a day at 6AM. Observations taken at 6 hour intervals are most representative of actual snowfall.
CE

Today's snowfall, add a couple inches

Posted at 5:03 PM on February 21, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter

A steady snowfall increased in intensity during the afternoon accumulating an additional two to three inches in east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. So far today, Anoka picked up more than three inches of fresh snow. About two inches of snow fell at Chanhassen and Eden Prairie.

Link to the latest snowfall reports to the NWS in Chanhassen.

The seasonal snowfall total for the Twin Cities International Airport is now more than 74 inches. My first year in the Twin Cities we accumulated 84.1 inches in the winter of 1991/92. Fifty inches of that seasonal snowfall fell by December 1, 1991.

Check out the highest seasonal snowfalls on record for the Twin Cities.

Screen capture of radar at 515PM. The snow depicted by radar was rotating right over Chanhassen.

Travel with caution this evening.
CE

Major Pattern Change: Last sub-zero night? 40s ahead?

Posted at 5:03 PM on February 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

There may be an outbreak of spring fever in Minnesota next week.

A major change in the upper air pattern over North America will bring a prolonged period of milder weather in the next two weeks. While more sub zero nights are likely in northern Minnesota, tonight could potentially be the last sub-zero night this winter in the metro.

(There's always a shot we get one more sub-zero night in early March, but the chances for another sub-zero night in February are fading with each model run.)

A look at the numbers:

5: of 9 days in February at or below zero so far in the metro.

17: season total # of days at or below zero in the metro.

30: average # of days at or below zero in winter for the metro.

So even with a colder than average December (-2.3 degrees) and January (-1.1 degrees) it looks like the metro will end up with a much lower than average number of sub-zero starts this winter season.

Increased daylight plays a role:

We're gaining 3 minutes of additional daylight per day this time of year. That's 21 minutes per week. That means less time for "radiational cooling" at night, and the sun is up earlier each day to begin the diurnal warming process.

The sun angle is also considerably higher in the sky compared to December. We're now getting twice as much incoming solar radiation as we did on December 21st. That extra energy helps "modify" air masses that do come south in the coming weeks, meaning they tend to be milder.

It gets tougher by the week to generate sub-zero cold, especially south of 45 degrees north latitude, which is where the Twin Cities sits on the map.

My hunch is we'll probably get one more sub-zero morning in early March as we typically do, but it's also possible that Thursday morning may be the last sub-zero reading of the winter at MSP airport.

The "world sunlight map" is a cool way to see daylight and darkness on the globe at any given time.

Prolonged thaw ahead!

As the upper winds begin to blow form the north Pacific instead of the Arctic by Friday, temperatures will respond. The reason is that the source region of Pacific air masses is, as you would infer, the Pacific Ocean. The water temperatures under the air are in the 30s and 40s, and that interaction determines the low level temperatures in the incoming air mass.

Take a look at the expected temperatures in the next week or so.

First 40 of 2011 next week?

We could see 4 or more days above the thawing mark in the next week or so. We may also feel the first 40 degree temperature of 2011. The last time we had a string of 4 consecutive days at or above freezing was November 17th! Our last 40 degree reading was December 30th (42 degrees).

When you add it all up you can see that we are on the verge of a major seasonal change in Minnesota. I'm not sayin' spring is right around the corner and that winery weather is over...I'm just sayin' I think we're done with the prolonged deep freeze stuff (and just maybe sub-zero temps in the metro) for this winter.

PH

Mega Thaw: 30 degrees warmer?

Posted at 8:30 AM on February 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

A major and sustained warming trend is about 36 hours away.

After one more frigid sub-zero morning Thursday, temperatures will begin to rise as arctic air slips off to the northeast, and milder Pacific air slides in from the west. By Friday afternoon, wind chill babble and thoughts of sub zero temps may be a thing of the past for weeks (or even months?) to come.

The Twin Cities had a high of 3 degrees Tuesday. By Saturday it should be closer to 33 degrees. That's a 30 degree warm up in 4 days folks.

A westerly upper air flow will push in Pacific air. It looks like a string of days at or above 32 degrees will be the result for Minnesota through most of next week.

A shot at 40?

The GFS is hinting at the possibility of some areas in southern Minnesota touching 40 degrees toward the middle of next week. The last time the metro hit 40 was on December 30th when the temperatures topped out at 42 degrees.

Time release thaw?

The pattern of thawing days and freezing nights could be good news for mitigating the spring flood outlook. If the frozen water sitting in our snow pack is slowly released during the day, then frozen in place at night... that is the best scenario for flooding...rather than a huge flood of water during a big warm up. It may not be enough to prevent spring flooding, but every little bit helps.

Storm track returns in about 10 days?

A major winter storm is battering the southern plains today. As much as a foot of snow is flying from Oklahoma and Arkansas and heading east. Our arctic air mass has literally shoved the storm track south.

There are signs that it may return north in about a week to 10 days. If that happens it could open the door for more snow late next week, or into the following week.

GFS hinting at a return to a more northerly storm track in about 10 days.

Stay tuned!

PH

How do you feel about the winter of 2010-'11?

Posted at 8:57 AM on February 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner (16 Comments)
Filed under: Winter

There's an old saying "there really is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather!"

Or you might say "one person's weather trash is another's weather treasure." Any way you slice it one thing is for sure, you can't please all of the people all of the time with weather.

It's been interesting to talk to Minnesotans about our rigorous winter of 2010-'11.

As you can imagine, I get many different perspectives on our weather everywhere I go. Basically opinions about this winter fall into two camps.

Camp #1: This is a great winter!

I've spoken with many folks who are enjoying this winter of consistent cold and snow for outdoor recreation. It's been an ideal winter for downhill & cross country skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing, pond hockey etc.

It's been a great winter for outdoor ice rinks.

Personally, my Friday night hockey group has taken advantage of the excellent outdoor ice all winter long.

As I posted yesterday in this space... "The good side of this winter is that it has been a really great time for outdoor winter recreation. I play in a weekly Friday night pick up hockey game with "the boys of winter" at a local outdoor ice rink, and the consistent cold has produced great ice this year. As much as I want warmer weather, I will miss the great nights on the ice under the stars in a cold Minnesota sky."

The frequent snows (60"+) have made for stunning winter scenery since mid November.

Many of you have enjoyed this "real Minnesota winter."

Camp #2: I can't take it anymore!

I've also talked to many hearty Minnesotans who are just plain sick of this winter. The frequent snowfall has caused you many headaches commuting to work.

Massive ice chunks from the weather lab roof ice dams!

The heavy snowfall events are creating glacial ice dams on your roof and damage to your home, not to mention collapsing the Metrodome and other roofs causing major headaches and ripple effects for thousands. Baseball teams from the University of Minnesota to Louisiana are looking for places to play games this spring, with big economic consequences.

The pothole choked and heaving roads have caused damage to your car. The consistent cold is driving your heating bill through the roof, and chilling your fingers and toes to the bone. The icy walkways and parking lots are a constant danger for falls and injuries. City governments have burned through snow removal budgets, costing all of us more.

The heavy snow pack is forecast to cause record spring flooding, which may potentially cause hundreds of millions in damage.

You're sick of winter and you're so ready for a big thaw, now!

As you can see there are "winners and losers" in any weather scenario. The ski areas and your snow plow guy love the frequent 2" to 3" snowfalls. MNDOT? Not so much. The gas company loves the cold as it drives additional demand...and profit. Your home heating bill? Not so pretty this year. Roofers and ice dam removal companies are booming. Your insurance company? Not so happy.

You get the idea.

So what about you? Are you happy with this winter? Enjoying the cold and snow? Sick of looking out your window at ice chunks and snow piles the size of your kids?

Here's your chance to let us know how you feel about this winter...and how it's affecting your life or business.

Fire away!

PH

Cold For Now: Extended thaw in sight!

Posted at 8:49 AM on February 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter

I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm pretty sure it's not an oncoming Siberian Express.

Arctic air returns this week bringing a few sub-zero nights, but there are signs that this could be the last time this winter we see temperatures this cold...for this long. It looks like a major pattern change will bring an extended spell of much milder weather starting this weekend, and lasting through most of next week.

Cold first:

The season's latest arctic assault is funneling south from Canada this week. Temperatures will hover near or just below zero in northern Minnesota today, and stay mired in the single digits to teens above zero in the south.

It appears Tuesday morning may be the coldest this week, with temps from -20 to -30 north and -10 to -15 south, including the metro. I see 3 sub zero mornings for the metro this week, Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday.

Sub zero mornings...then a weekend warming trend.

Major Pattern Change This Weekend:

Okay now for the part most Minnesotans have been waiting to hear. It looks like a major change in the hemispheric upper air pattern is ahead starting this weekend. The persistent "Polar Vortex" over Hudson Bay has been dealing Minnesota and much of the nation a series of arctic fronts this winter. The northwest flow on the back side of the Polar Vortex has kept a steady supply of arctic air driving south from Canada's arctic regions. That pattern is about to shift.

Numerous model runs are advertising an eastward shift in the Polar Vortex over Greenland and Canada's Elsmere Island near the Arctic Circle. That should drag the cold air east, and shift our mean upper air flow from northwest to west. That will open the door to much milder Pacific air masses filtering in from the west starting this weekend. It looks like this pattern might have some staying power, and could last right through most of next week.

Extended thaw?

If the pattern holds, we could see a period of 7 to 10 days with temperatures well above average. There are indications that temperatures could run a good 10 degrees (+?) above average by the middle of next week. With average highs in the upper 20s, that could put temperatures in the upper 30s...a full 25+ degrees warmer than today!

GFS: Extended run of 30s starting this weekend?

A shot at 40?

Right now, one medium range forecast model (the GFS) is advertising a ridge of high pressure centered right over Minnesota about next Thursday February 17th. If that map verifies, the warm spell could peak in the middle of next week with high temperatures tickling 40 degrees in parts of Minnesota for the first time in 2011.

We may also see the season's first big warm up in the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures could push 80 degrees later next week in Texas and Oklahoma, with mild 70s spilling all the way north into Kansas and Nebraska. That should pretty much take car of snow cover all the way into Nebraska and southwest Iowa...which could lead to warmer temps for Minnesota anytime our winds turn into the southwest in the coming weeks.

Breaking the back of winter?

If the warm spell lingers through next week as I expect, that would put us into the last week of February. It's too early to say the cold is over for good this winter...and we typically get at least one more cold shot with a sub zero morning in the metro the first week of March.

But I really do think this pattern change tells us the worst of winter will be over after this week! By March 1st the sun angle is just too high to sustain any big cold snaps, and milder days will mean melting snow.

No big snows in sight...yet:

Things can change in a hurry this time of year on the weather maps...but right now I don't see any big whopper snowstorms during the next 7 to 10 days. If we don't pick up much snow in the next 10 days, that would put us at around February 18th. We've only recorded .5" of snowfall so far this month at MSP. Is it possible we may end up with one month this winter with below average snowfall??

Snow not done yet though:

We're at 60.9" of snowfall so far this winter in the metro. Last March was the first in modern history with no snow in the Twin Cities, and much of Minnesota. You know that's (probably) not going to happen twice in a row...so I expect we'll probably get clobbered with at least one more big wet sloppy March storm this season.

The good side of this winter is that it has been a really great time for outdoor winter recreation. I play in a weekly Friday night pick up hockey game with "the boys of winter" at a local outdoor ice rink, and the consistent cold has produced great ice this year. As much as I want warmer weather, I will miss the great nights on the ice under the stars in a cold Minnesota sky.

Again though...I really do think the worst of winter is over after this week. Weather fingers and toes crossed on that one!

PH

Chicago "Snowzilla" Update: Civil Emergency, Groundhog Day cancelled!

Posted at 8:07 AM on February 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

The madness continues in Chicago today, even as the storm begins to pull away and move east. Blizzard warnings remain in effect until 3pm today. Radars show a plume of lake effect snow spraying the city on the storm's back side.

Chicago lakefront battered by wind and snow.

Some snowfall reports include:

20.6" St. Charles
20.0" Beach Park
20.0" Ottawa
18.5" Elk Grove Village
18.0" Waukegan
17.3" Chicago O'Hare
15.4" Chicago Midway

The storm is now the 5th biggest snowstorm on record in Chicago...with snow still falling.

Chicago

Since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 41 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 19 years. The closest back to back 10 inch snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 21-23, 2005. These snowfall statistics are through the 2004-2005 winter season.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
17.3 inches February 1-2, 2011
16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

High winds tore off part of the roof at Wrigley Field at the storms height. Sound familiar?

You can watch the latest Chicago NWS weather briefing here.

PH

Early Morning Update: (posted 2:35 am February 2nd)

They're calling it "Snowzilla 2011" on WGN Radio in Chicago. If the storm was a rapper, they might call it "Snowtorious B-I-G."

Conditions in and around Chicago are described as "life threatening" by local emergency officials. As many as 95,000 homes are without power early Wednesday morning.

There are reports of people being stranded in their cars for up to 8 hours! "Warming buses" are circling the city to rescue stranded motorists.

Chicago Fire is using snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists on Lakeshore Drive, which has been closed as snow and high waves from Lake Michigan pound "The Drive." Photographer (and former WGN-TV colleague) Dave Weaver reports as many as a hundred cars may be abandoned on Lakeshore Drive.

Here's the story from my former station WGN-TV.

WGN-TV "Skilling Cam" shows a desolate Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago. Click the live feed below.

 
Snowfall totals over 16" (and counting) and winds gusting to 67 mph are hammering the city. Storm totals over 20" are forecast by late today.

Here are some of the latest storm reports from Chicago NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
140 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011

0135 AM SNOW OAK PARK 41.89N 87.79W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
STORM TOTAL

0132 AM SNOW CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
EVANSTON MAIN AND CHICAGO.

0115 AM SNOW 7 N LA SALLE 41.44N 89.09W
02/02/2011 E13.0 INCH LA SALLE IL EMERGENCY MNGR
E13 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WINDS E20S WITH
GUSTS E30S. 4 FEET DRIFTS. LOCATION I80 AND I39 CROSSWAY.

1200 AM HEAVY SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W
02/02/2011 M13.6 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS
13.6 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE DAY...10.6 INCHES BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
940 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /1040 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

CHICAGO LAKEFRONT 67
CHICAGO OHARE 61
WAUKEGAN HARBOR 61
AURORA 59
ROMEOVILLE 59
CHICAGO MIDWAY 58
PONTIAC 58
BURNS HARBOR 54
WEST CHICAGO 54
LASALLE/PERU 53
WAUKEGAN 53
JOLIET 52
DEKALB 52

Lake County (Chicago's northern suburbs) has issued a civil emergency message closing all roads in the county. I lived in Lake County for several years working as a meteorologist in the Chicago area at WGN-TV & Weather Command, and I do not recall this ever happening before. My former colleague Tom Skilling at WGN has his hands full with this one!

Here's the message as relayed by the Chicago NWS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
201 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

ALL RESOURCES ARE BEING USED TO REACH STRANDED MOTORISTS. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DOING SO WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK.

This is truly an epic blizzard for Chicago, and this massive "Groundhog Day Snowmageddon" storm will cover hundreds of thousands of square miles and stretch all the way to Boston by day's end.

Groundhog Day cancelled!

On a lighter note, the storm is so intense that they've cancelled some Groundhog Day festivities in Woodstock, IL north of Chicago near the Wisconsin border. "Willie The Groundhog" will stay inside today. Much of the excellent movie Groundhog Day (Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell) was filmed in Woodstock.

What does it mean when the Groundhog stays inside? I shudder to think of the consequences!

I'll have more updates on MPR News Morning Edition at 7:45am.

PH

***original post 5:30pm Tuesday***

The blizzard has hit Illinois and the Chicagoland area with full force Tuesday. Snowfall is coming down at the rate of 1-2"+ per hour.

Check out some of the storm reports coming in to the Chicagoland NWS office in Romeoville, IL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S OAK PARK 41.87N 87.79W
02/01/2011 M1.5 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FALL PAST HOUR 12 MIN. BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE EIGHTH OF A MILE.

0338 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NNE POPLAR GROVE 42.42N 88.79W
02/01/2011 E2.0 INCH BOONE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN LAST 2 HOURS. COCORAHS OBSERVER

0345 PM BLIZZARD ESE PAXTON 40.46N 88.10W
02/01/2011 FORD IL TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTREME BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 YARDS OR LESS. BEGAN AS SNOW NOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

You get the idea. This storm is hitting hard and fast, and it will only get worse through tonight and into Wednesday.

Here's the Tuesday late PM briefing from the Chicago NWS.

You can follow the storm's progress here.

The storm is huge...and will affect as many as 100 million Americans as it marches east.

Potent surface low pressure intensifying overnight.

Warnings for the storm are in effect for at least 20 states.

The storm may produce a 2,000 mile swath of snowfall with totals over 1 foot from Oklahoma to Boston!

PH

MSP: Snowiest winter in 19 years? Chicago: Epic blizzard imminent

Posted at 7:41 AM on February 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Boy did we get lucky on this one.

Monday's long duration snowfall left behind a trail of respectable snow totals...but nothing like what the next phase of the storm will deliver to Chicago tonight.

Officially 4.7" at MSP Airport recorded 4.7" of snowfall with the latest system. That puts the season to date snowfall at MSP at a healthy, ice dam dripping 60.4". Here are the relative numbers for MSP.

Season snowfall: 60.4"
Average to date: 34.1"
Departure from avg: +26.3"
January snowfall: 17" (+3.5")

If we maintain our current snowfall pace the rest of the winter we are on track for about 80" of snow. That would approach the 5th snowiest winter on record. It would also be the snowiest winter in 19 years. The last time we had 80"+ was in 1991-'92 (Halloween Mega-Storm) when we stacked up 84.1" of snowfall!

Here's the final NWS tally on Monday's snowfall:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

SNOW AMOUNTS LISTED BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS
FOR THE EVENT. PLEASE NOTE THE TIME OF THE REPORTS.

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 S MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0518 PM
9.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0516 PM
8.00 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0538 PM
8.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0445 PM
8.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0332 PM
7.00 9 SW GRANITE FALLS MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0421 PM
6.50 MINNESOTA LAKE MN FARIBAULT 1011 PM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0830 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0500 PM
6.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0253 PM
6.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0233 PM
6.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0212 PM
5.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0800 PM
4.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1200 AM
4.70 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 AM
4.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 AM
4.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1000 PM
4.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0557 PM
4.40 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1000 PM
4.20 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0742 PM
4.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1025 PM
4.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0900 PM
3.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0500 PM
3.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 1208 PM
3.50 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 1059 PM
3.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0600 PM
3.40 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0528 PM
3.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1200 AM
3.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0500 PM
3.00 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0115 PM
2.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1200 AM
2.80 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0444 PM
2.80 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0120 PM
2.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0518 PM
1.00 2 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0253 PM
0.90 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0550 PM

Arctic Comeback:

Arctic air is sliding south again in the wake of Monday's snow event. Temperatures plunged into the -20 and even to -35 near the center of the arctic air mass in North Dakota and eastern Montana overnight.

The chill will keep Minnesota in the deep freeze (and hopefully stop my ice dam covered window sills from dripping temporarily) through mid-week before temperatures moderate by late week.

Brief late-week "thaw?"

Temperatures will rebound Thursday into Friday, as milder Pacific air begins to move in from the west. 20s should return Thursday...with lower 30s possible in southern Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

Another shot of arctic air is due next week.

Bigger thaw ahead?

There are signs that a more substantial thaw could emerge for the Upper Midwest by late next week into the following weekend. Indications are the upper air pattern may shift, and the polar vortex over Hudson Bay may slide east toward Greenland temporarily.

That could allow milder winds form the Pacific Ocean to take hold over the upper Midwest. If the pattern takes firm hold...it could mean a few days of 30s and even a shot at 40 in Minnesota by the weekend of February 12th.

Stay tuned.

Chicago: Biggest blizzard in history?

A major "snow bomb" is racing toward Chicago today and tonight. A powerful storm is taking aim with what meteorologists refer to as some incredible "dynamics." The storm has the potential to become the biggest in Chicago history.

Here is some of what the Windy City can expect tonight and tomorrow according to the Chicago NWS.

-Snowfall totals over 20"?
-Snowfall rates of 2" to 4" per hour
-Thundersnow
-Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph
-5 to 10 FOOT drifts
-Waves as high as 25 FEET on Lake Michigan
-Severe lakeshore flooding

Blizzard warnings are flying for the entire Chicagoland area.

Check out some of the snowpacolyptic language from the Chicago NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
421 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /521 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

...WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND SURVIVAL TIPS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO ADVISES YOU TO BE PREPARED
FOR THE IMPENDING SEVERE WINTER STORM....COMPLETING ALL STORM
PREPARATIONS BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY THE LATEST.

WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND HIGHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF POWER
OUTAGES. OTHER PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL LOSS OF HEAT...HOME
TELEPHONE SERVICE AND A SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES.

YOU SHOULD HAVE AVAILABLE...
A FLASH LIGHT AND EXTRA BATTERIES...
A BATTERY POWER RADIO TO RECEIVE EMERGENCY INFORMATION...
EXTRA FOOD...WATER...MEDICINE AND BABY ITEMS...
FIRST AID SUPPLIES...
HEATING FUEL AND AN EMERGENCY HEATING SOURCE...
A FIRE EXTINGUISHER AND SMOKE DETECTOR.

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT. THESE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE AND
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT OVER WASH FLOODING FROM HIGH WAVES.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

This looks like an epic blizzard for Chicago. Only 3 storms in history have produced over 20" of snow in Chicago. 23" fell in January of 1967, and The "Mayor Jane Byrne" blizzard (20.3") slammed Chicago and changed the political landscape in 1979.

This storm will be Chicago's version of a Nor'easter on the shores of Lake Michigan. With potential wave heights reaching 25 feet severe lakeshore flooding is expected, and waves will likely crash over Lakeshore Drive. I covered similar events working for WGN in Chicago in the 90s where I broadcast live from near the Chess Pavilion as waves pounded "The Drive."

The storm will rage on and move east this week...and could dump 1-2 feet of snow from Chicago through Detroit and all the way east into Upstate New York and Boston!

I know I'm feeling better now about shoveling a paltry 4" from my walkway today!

PH

Midday Update: Messy PM commute ahead

Posted at 11:00 AM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Storms, Winter, Winter storms

Our active Monday snowmaker continues. Winter storm warnings and advisories contuine in effect through tonight.

Bottom Line: Looking ahead to the PM rush hour, it still appears it will be a messy and potentially slow commute. Plan accordingly for extra travel time through this evening.

There are a few breaks in the snow showing up on radar, while snow continues over much of southern Minnesota today. Here are some tools to track the storm through Midday, with an eye toward the PM commute.

-Latest snow totals
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-MNDOT live traffic cams and road info

It still looks like snowfall totals will end up somewhere in the 3" to 6" range for the metro by Tuesday morning. Higher totals between 6" and 12" could pile up in southern Minnesota along the Minnesota River and I-90 corridor.

Storm aims east:

Minnesota is just the appetizer for this massive storm. It looks like this massive system will make national headlines for the next two days. Snowfall totals could reach 1 to 2 FEET from near Chicago through Detroit to Upstate New York and Boston.

Stay safe and weather another "snow bomb" in the extreme winter of 2011.

PH

Snow Continues: Messy Midday & PM commute ahead

Posted at 9:10 AM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Our Monday snow mess continues right on schedule.

Bottom Line: (what you need to know right now) Expect snow to continue through today and tonight, a messy PM rush, and another 2" to 4" in most areas, with as much as 3" to 6" additional in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Updated snow totals as of 9am:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.20 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
3.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
3.10 BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0813 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0804 AM
2.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.40 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0855 AM
2.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0853 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
2.20 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
2.00 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0759 AM
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
2.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0700 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 1 SW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.70 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0753 AM
1.60 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 SPRING VALLEY WI PIERCE 0800 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.00 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0700 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
1.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 0500 AM
0.90 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Heaviest snow totals should fall in southern Minnesota.

Snow so far: Here are some snow totals as of early Monday morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
744 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
STORM TOTAL.
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Latest radar trends:

Radar and surface reports showing moderate snow from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border. Visibilities under 1 mile in many locations...corresponding to snowfall rates around 1/2" per hour. There may be a reduction in snowfall intensity at times today.

Long duration: It looks like snowfall will continue through tonight and taper early Tuesday. The long duration is due to what we call "overrunning" in meteorology. That is to say a broad area of lift generated when warmer air "overruns" colder air near the surface. This "semi-stable" situation can produce large areas of general snowfall.

"Big Foot" storm:

This storm has a huge geographical footprint covering thousands of square miles. The storm will produce hefty snowfall totals from the Dakotas through Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois straight east into Michigan and through New York into New England.

Massive snow totals?

It appears Minnesota will get off lucky with this system. As much as 10" to 20" could fall in Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, and Detroit all the way east into New York.

Another messy PM rush:

It could look a lot like this again this afternoon on metro freeways.

Stay safe on the roads today!

PH

Next Snow: Monday travel mess, 3" to 6" likely

Posted at 3:45 PM on January 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

It's been 16 days since we've seen significant snowfall in much of southern Minnesota. That streak ends today.

Our next significant snowmaker is plowing into Minnesota overnight and Monday. This "long duration" snow event will bring several inches of fresh snowfall, with the heaviest totals focused on the southern third of Minnesota.

Winter storm warnings are flying for much of southwest & south central Minnesota through Monday. Winter weather advisories bracket the winter storm areas, and include the densely populated Twin Cities Metro area.

Snow will expand Sunday night, and the storm's impacts will increase Monday. It looks like Monday will be a tough travel day around the Upper Midwest, and both rush hours will be impacted by snow in the metro.

Here's the breakdown on the developing storm.

Storm Timeline: Sunday night through Tuesday morning:

Timing: Snow spreading rapidly east from the Dakotas into Minnesota Sunday PM & evening. Snow should spread into the metro between 7pm and 10pm Sunday evening.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Long duration snow event of 24 to 36 hours possible. Light intensity at onset Sunday evening. Snowfall rates increase Monday, with visibilities under 1 mile at times. This should be a fairly dry snowfall with snow:water ratios around 15:1 or so.

Best estimate of accumulations by Tuesday morning include...

Grand Rapids-Duluth-Rice Lake: 2" to 4"

I-94 Corridor: (Fargo-Alex-St. Cloud-Twin Cities-Eau Claire): 3" to 6" **Note: There is a chance metro accumulations could go higher if the storm track shifts slightly north.

Forecast models cluster tightly around a general 3" to 6" snowfall for the metro.

Marshall-Mankato-Red Wing: Potential for some 6" to 12" totals!

NAM model sets up heaviest snow band through south central MN.

NAM specifics...6.8" for MSP Airport?

Primary impact: Basically travel will be a mess in most of Minnesota Monday, including both AM & PM metro drive times. Increasing winds late Monday into Tuesday will cause blowing and drifting.

Plan accordingly, and prepare for a big wintery comeback as we close out January!

PH

Winter Carnival Forecast: Almost perfect?

Posted at 8:48 AM on January 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

King Boreas and Vulcanus Rex seem to have reached an agreement for this year's Winter Carnival in St. Paul. A little bit of everything.

The forecast for the 2011 run of the Winter Carnival looks great, with a little something for everybody. Let's break down the details for the next few days.

Thursday: Milder! Mixed clouds & flurries. Some PM sunny peeks. High near 32. Should be excellent conditions for strolling through Rice Park and checking out ice sculptures!

Friday: Micro thaw! Mixed clouds & snow showers with under 1" of accumulation. High near 35 PM. A few hours above freezing, but not enough to cause any major problems with ice & snow sculptures.

Saturday: Boreas takes control again. Breezy & colder. Highs in the 20s with a cooler north wind. Pretty good day to check out the Grand Day Parade at 2pm in St. Paul!

Sunday: Slightly arctic. Temps in the teens. Snow may develop from west to east later in the day.

Monday: Chance of snow. Could be "shovelable" and affect rush hours. Maybe a few inches, but not a blockbuster storm at this point. Temps in the teens.

Tuesday through Friday: Colder next week with a gradual warming trend late in the week. Highs single digits to low teens. A couple of sub-zero mornings?

All in all, a GREAT looking, classic winter forecast for this year's Winter Carnival run. Here a link to activities for this year's Winter Carnival.

East Coast digs out:

The east coast snow storm was pretty impressive in some areas. Most areas saw 6" (Washington, D.C.) to 12" (Boston) with the storm, with some higher totals. Here's the list from NYC NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
754 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA
FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 18.0 530 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST NORWALK 17.0 110 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 14.5 530 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWALK 14.0 543 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT 13.0 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
DANBURY 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SHELTON 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 12.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 15.0 535 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 13.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
HADDAM 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 18.5 605 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MILFORD 15.0 300 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRANFORD 15.0 554 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 13.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 12.5 440 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 10.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 9.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
MERIDEN 9.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
LISBON 17.5 702 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLCHESTER 15.0 200 AM 1/27 CT DOT
NORTH FRANKLIN 13.5 625 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GROTON 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
UNCASVILLE 9.0 320 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NORWICH 8.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
EAST RUTHERFORD 15.5 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
PARAMUS 12.5 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
RIVERVALE 11.5 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 18.9 615 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BLOOMFIELD 16.5 340 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BELLEVILLE 15.6 200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST ORANGE 14.2 330 AM 1/27 PUUBLIC
VERONA 14.0 200 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 13.2 410 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
JERSEY CITY 16.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
HARRISON 15.0 400 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
CLIFTON 19.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
WAYNE 10.5 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
ROSELLE 17.9 430 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 17.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
ELIZABETH 14.6 1200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 12.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSE 18.0 400 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PARKCHESTER 16.3 630 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
BRONX 14.7 620 AM 1/27 PUBLIC - BRONX ZOO
BEDFORD PARK 13.1 1230 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 13.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
LONG BEACH 15.9 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BETHPAGE 15.5 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 15.0 500 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GARDEN CITY 14.8 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
FLORAL PARK 14.0 345 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
LEVITTOWN 14.0 545 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SYOSSET 14.0 400 AM 1/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
OCEANSIDE 12.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA 11.0 630 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BALDWIN HARBOR 9.2 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 19.0 630 AM 1/27 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
HARRIMAN 8.2 1200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 7.2 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/LA GUARDIA 17.3 615 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
FRESH MEADOWS 16.2 230 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
WOODSIDE 16.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 10.3 615 AM 1/27 ASOS

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
ELTINGVILLE 16.0 200 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
STATEN ISLAND 15.0 500 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
STONY POINT 7.6 624 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTHPORT 16.5 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CENTERPORT 16.5 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
COMMACK 15.7 430 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
EAST SETAUKET 15.5 510 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
PORT JEFFERSON 14.0 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
ISLIP AIRPORT 13.7 700 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
SHOREHAM 13.7 625 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BABYLON 13.5 615 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
UPTON 13.3 700 AM 1/27 NWS OFFICE
SMITHTOWN 13.0 300 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT SINAI 12.4 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SOUND BEACH 12.1 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
PATCHOGUE 12.0 620 AM 1/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
HOLBROOK 11.3 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
LINDENHURST 10.9 540 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
HARRISON 16.0 610 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
ARMONK 14.5 615 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 12.0 350 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 10.8 100 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

PH

Warm Front: 30s ahead, snow "drought" continues

Posted at 9:13 AM on January 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hockey, Snow, Winter

Good news from the weather department if you're looking for a warm up.

A rare January warm front up may evolve into a "mini-thaw" later this week. That's great news if you're longing to hear the sound of dripping water, or see the pavement on your favorite street again. Maybe not such great news if you're looking for fast ice for a pond hockey tourney on Lake Minnetonka Friday.

Temperatures will climb this week, and should top out somewhere in the 30s Friday before the next cold front sails in Saturday. Here a look at the temperature ladder climb.
Temps climb this week...cold front returns Saturday.

Pond hockey anyone?

I've talked to many people who are enjoying our "real winter" in Minnesota this year. The combination of ample snowfall and consistent cold has made for great snow conditions for cross country and downhill skiing. It's also making great ice on Minnesota lakes and outdoor rinks.

Count me in among those who appreciate the consistent cold from a winter recreational standpoint. I play outdoor hockey with a great group of guys every Friday night for the "Friday Night Game" at a local outdoor ice rink. The ice has been fast and hard this year, almost ideal.

That's also great news for Minnesota's outdoor pond hockey tournaments. Last weekend's U.S. Pond Hockey Championships was a smashing success. This weekend the Pond Hockey North America Championship takes place on Excelsior Bay on Lake Minnetonka. The ice may be a bit soft Friday with temps in the 30s. But a cold front should drop temps into the 20s Saturday and make for great ice again.

If you're looking for a great hockey movie to watch this weekend that sort of captures the essence of the pond hockey spirit I recommend checking out "Mystery Alaska." It's a good movie many people have never heard of, but it has some grown up moments so it may be better for adults than kids. People in "The State of Hockey" will get and appreciate this movie.

Snow drought:

It's been rare to have a week go by this winter without much snow. In the past 12 days, the Twin Cities has received 3 inches of snowfall. That's the longest stretch with that little snowfall since November!

Here are some other metro snow stats this winter:

January snowfall so far: 12"
January average snowfall: 13.5"

With little snow in the forecast in the next week, it looks like we might end up near average snowfall in January.

Season snowfall so far: 55.4"
Annual average: 55.9"

We've already piled up close to our seasonal (30 year 1971-2000) average snowfall of 55.9" so far.

The average snowfall for the rest of the winter season (Feb-Mar-April) is 22.8" for the metro. If we get average snowfall the rest of the winter, that will bring the metro total to about 78.2". That's just shy of the 80.3" needed to bust into the top 5 snowiest winters on record for the metro.

The snowiest winter ever? 98.4" back in 1983-'84. We'd need another 44" to break that record. Anything's possible, but that's a very tall order...even in this year of weather extremes.

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

Halftime Forecast: Less snow in winter's 2nd half?

Posted at 8:36 AM on January 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

The " Great Snow Blitz" winter of 2010-'11 has been relentless. That may be about to change.

The upper air pattern so far this winter has brought frequent snowfalls to Minnesota. This includes 7 storms that have produced 6"+ snowfalls in southern Minnesota! It also includes the 17.1" "Domebuster" which is the 5th biggest snowstorm in Twin Cities history.

In total, the storms so far have dumped 53.9" (and counting) on the Twin Cities. That's nearly a full winter's snowfall (average) of 55.9" already by mid-January!

The Twin Cities NWS has a great list detailing winter storm events so far this season.

If you take our season snowfall total of about 54" over the past 10 weeks, we've been getting nailed by snow at the rate of about 5.4" per week.

That snowfall rate may be unsustainable.

Persistent northwest flow setting up:

Our upper air flow during the first half of winter featured a flow component off the northern Pacific Ocean. That sent a series of storms toward Minnesota, many of which were hybrid clippers "turbo charged" by additional Pacific moisture.

The dominant upper air pattern the next two weeks appears to be northwest flow. This should keep us seasonably cold with a few brief warm ups. It may also feature a few little clipper type snow systems, which should produce only light snowfalls.

Persistent northwest upper air flow may mean less snow in the next two weeks.

The source region for northwest flow in Minnesota is the arctic deserts inside the Arctic Circle. The region lacks sufficient moisture to generate the big 6"+ blockbuster snows that slammed Minnesota in the first half of winter. The result may be a few light 1" type snowfalls in the next two weeks...but I don't see any big 6"+ snowfall events looming in the forecast into the first week of February. At least not yet.

Our snowfall total of about 54" through the first half of winter would put us on track for around 100" for the winter season. That would challenge the record for the all time snowiest winter of 98.4" set in 1983-'84. Right now, I just don't see us sustaining the snowfall frequency and intensity during the second half of winter that blasted us during the first half of winter. Of course February and March can, and likely will bring a few more heavy snow events.

At around 54" of snow so far, we still need another 20" to break into the top 10 snow seasons in the metro. We need about another 27" to crack the top 5...and a whopping 45" to challenge the top spot. That's a tall order, even for Minnesota...even in this savage winter.

Stay tuned!

PH

Monday Clipper: Snow then milder

Posted at 8:13 AM on January 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

A shot of snow Monday morning has laid down yet another fresh coating of white in most of Minnesota. Today's snowfall makes it 15 of the past 17 days with at least a trace of snow in the metro and most of "Minne-snow-ta" in January.

Here are some snow totals from the morning snow burst.

Deephaven (west metro) 1.3"
Mankato 2.5"
Two Harbors 3.1"
Tofte 3"
Finland 6.2"
International Falls 1.9"
Duluth 1"
Rochester .5"
La Crosse 1.2"

Snow will continue to focus on northeast Minnesota and Wisconsin today with additional 1" to 3" totals common. Occasional snow may fall in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities with up to another 1" in some areas.

Milder air pushes north:

Some milder air will push north into southern Minnesota today with this system, before cold air pushes south again tonight and Tuesday. Temperatures may push 30 in southern Minnesota today.

Note the huge temperature contrast from north to south...with -20s pooling in central Canada.

More details on the snow system. (original post 12:08 am)

System & track: Albert Clipper tracking through from NW to SE

Timing: Quick burst of snow early Monday morning. Snow may be "on and off" at times the rest of the day.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Light to moderate snow pulse early morning. Occasional snow (intermittent) through the day. Total accumulations 1" to 2" in metro. 3" to 6" possible in southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. 2" to 4" possible in northern Minnesota.

Primary impact: Metro: Snowy AM drive. Some snow may linger for PM drive.

Expect more traffic hassles today, and allow extra time (again) to get around. At least the MLK Holiday means there should be a little less traffic on the roads, and the kids will love playing in snow when the temps push 30 degrees by late afternoon!

How fast does snow fall?

Have you ever stopped to think how fast snow falls? It turns out snow falls about 3mph on average. That's about as fast as you walk. Snow can form at 5,000 or 10,000 feet above ground level, so a snowflake that falls from 8,000 feet may take 30 minutes to reach the ground.

That's a leisurely stroll to land on your driveway where you can shovel it.

Arctic air still on the way:

It will turn colder as the first taste of arctic air pushes south Tuesday. Lows may plunge to -10 in the metro by Wednesday morning...and -15 in the outer suburbs. It still looks like the coldest shot of air comes Thursday into Friday morning. Temperatures should plunge below zero Thursday...and could hit -15 to -20 Friday morning. Stay tuned as we tweak the magnitude off this week's arctic cold snap.

PH

Clipper #1 delivers: Clipper #2 Friday

Posted at 5:32 PM on January 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Our next Alberta Clipper is on track to deliver another snow shot Friday.

Our first Alberta Clipper delivered as advertised (and then some!) for much of Minnesota Thursday.

Here are some snow totals from Thursday's weather system.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
156 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

JANUARY 13TH CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOW

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
2.20 MENDOTA MN DAKOTA 0105 PM
1.80 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1112 AM
1.60 ANOKA MN ANOKA 0155 PM
1.60 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1155 AM
MEASURED AT THE MSP AIRPORT
1.40 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1153 AM
1.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1146 AM
MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
1.20 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 1112 AM
0.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1218 PM

And from Duluth NWS:

0300 PM SNOW GRANTSBURG 45.78N 92.68W
01/13/2011 M1.3 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 1 N LUTSEN 47.65N 90.71W
01/13/2011 M3.0 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STARTED 830AM. MODERATE SNOW AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

1200 PM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
01/13/2011 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT NWS OFFICE.

1215 PM SNOW 2 E FINLAND 47.41N 91.21W
01/13/2011 M1.4 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW AT OBSERVATION.

And from La Crosse NWS:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
0411 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM SNOW ST CHARLES 5N 44.04N 92.07W
01/13/2011 E0.8 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

0307 PM SNOW CALMAR 43.18N 91.87W
01/13/2011 E0.0 INCH WINNESHIEK IA PUBLIC
TRACE REPORTED

0311 PM SNOW WAUKON 8NW 43.34N 91.60W
01/13/2011 E0.3 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

0312 PM SNOW PLAINVIEW 44.16N 92.17W
01/13/2011 E1.5 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

0337 PM SNOW LA CROSSE AIRPORT (LSE) 43.87N 91.26W
01/13/2011 E1.6 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

0339 PM SNOW WABASHA 5S 44.32N 92.05W
01/13/2011 E1.3 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

0342 PM SNOW GOODVIEW 44.07N 91.71W
01/13/2011 E1.5 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

0348 PM SNOW HOUSTON 5E 43.76N 91.49W
01/13/2011 E1.8 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

0350 PM SNOW LA CROSSE NWS 43.28N 91.19W
01/13/2011 E1.7 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

0405 PM SNOW GILMANTON 8SE 44.39N 91.60W
01/13/2011 E1.8 INCH BUFFALO WI PUBLIC

Next Clipper Friday:

The next clipper system moves into Minnesota Friday. This system looks a little more potent than Thursday's snow maker....and could deliver an icy punch to Friday PM rush hour.

The system is also moving in a little faster, and snow could spread into the highly populated metro anytime after the lunch hour...and pick up in intensity during PM rush Friday. Here are the details.

Clipper #2: Friday:

Timing: Snow in eastern Dakotas by morning. Snow spreads west to east through Minnesota during AM into the metro anytime around or after lunchtime Snow intensity increases into PM rush Friday.

Intensity/duration/accumulation: Quick onset & shot of more moderate snow intensity with a duration of about 6-9 hours. Metro accumulations centered on about 2". (Range 1.5" to 2.5"?) Northern Minnesota accumulations 2" to 4".

Primary impact: Metro: Bad Friday PM rush hour, with slick roads for Friday night travel. Slick roads may linger early Saturday AM. Borderline arctic temps this weekend. Metro highs in the teens Saturday. Brittle lows near -7 Sunday morning with single digit highs Sunday PM. Sub-zero wind chills.

PH

Snow Today: Arctic outbreak & January Thaw on the horizon?

Posted at 8:55 AM on January 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

Our latest "slow motion" version of "Snowmageddon 2010-2011" continues today.

Pesky, persistent light snow will fall in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. At one point this morning snow was falling from Roseau and Ely all the way south into Tennessee.

While snow intensity has been light in the metro and much of northern Minnesota, it has piled up more quickly in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Here are some totals from around Minnesota early Tuesday:

Fairmont 7"
Winnebago & North Mankato 6.5"
Winthrop 5.3"
Redwood Falls 5"
Willmar 4.4"
Albert Lea 4"
Owatonna 3"
Finland 2.6"
St. Cloud 2.5"
Lutsen 2"
Silver Bay 1.3"
Brainerd & Embarrass 1"

Snowfall totals around the metro early Tuesday generally range from 1" (east) to 3"(SW) so far:

Chanhassen NWS 3.3"
Chaska 3.1"
Waconia 2.8"
Deephaven 2.5"
Twin Cities Airport 2"
Hastings 1.4"
Forest Lake 1.3"

Expect spotty snow to continue today and wind down tonight. Most areas can expect up t another inch of accumulation...bringing overall metro snow totals into the 2" to 4" range by tonight.

Arctic Front this weekend: Siberian Express next week?

We catch a cooler break Wednesday from snowfall, with another shot at light snow both Thursday & Friday afternoon. Then things take a turn for the colder as we head for the weekend.

It appears our first arctic front may be a bit of a glancing blow this weekend. The front should push south Saturday, ushering in our first taste of arctic air. Lows may dip below zero this by Sunday morning with highs struggling to make the teens above zero this weekend.

Another clipper may slide through late Sunday into Monday with a few more inches of snow, and the potential for another snowy Monday morning rush hour.

It appears the "mother lode" of arctic air will come roaring south from the Yukon Territory behind the arctic front Monday evening. By Tuesday, bitterly cold air (probably winter's coldest air mass?) will invade Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

It appears next Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this winter season with sub zero highs and overnight temperatures plunging to at least the teens below zero.

GFS cranking out temps near -20 next Tuesday.

Temperatures may moderate some next Wednesday before another shot of bitter arctic air surges south later next week.

January Thaw on the horizon?

Often after bitter arctic outbreaks we see our January Thaw in Minnesota. As the bitterly cold air is (at least temporarily) drained out of Canada, upper winds often change and start blowing from the Pacific Ocean instead of the Yukon & Siberia.

The medium range forecast models are suggesting this pattern shift may occur in the January 25th- 30th time frame. It's still a long way out...but stay tuned for news of a potential warm front that could push temperatures toward 40 degrees as we head into the last days of January.

Weather fingers and toes crossed on that one!

PH

"Snow Globe:" Some 3"+ MN totals now

Posted at 4:13 PM on January 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Winter

A big lazy sprawling upper level low pressure center is feeding "snow globe" conditions in much of the central USA.

"Inverted trof" of low pressure on the surface map spawning widespread snowfall.

While not particularly intense, the prolonged snow shield with this system is huge. Snow is flying Monday from Tulsa to Thief River Falls.

We call these systems "inverted trofs" (NWS abbreviation for trough) on the weather map. These elongated areas of low pressure are not tightly wound up like the mega storms that can produce wind driven, hard hitting blizzards with heavy snow. But inverted trofs can be significant snow producers over time.

The slow moving system is slogging through the Midwest, and will continue to send waves of light to at times moderate snow into the Upper Midwest through Tuesday. The system is bucking drier air on the eastern side, and that may lead to spotty snowfall coverage at times from the metro north and east.

Heaviest snow from St. Peter to Glencoe Monday PM.

Some significant Minnesota totals:

There are some impressive (6"+!) snowfall totals from South Dakota, Iowa and southwest Minnesota already Monday afternoon.

Here are some snowfall totals as of Monday PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM SNOW 1 N SPENCER 43.16N 95.15W
01/10/2011 M5.5 INCH CLAY IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0110 PM SNOW SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W
01/10/2011 M12.2 INCH WOODBURY IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0120 PM SNOW MARION 43.42N 97.26W
01/10/2011 M6.5 INCH TURNER SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0125 PM SNOW GREGORY 43.23N 99.43W
01/10/2011 E5.0 INCH GREGORY SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0230 PM SNOW 3 SSE SIOUX FALLS 43.50N 96.71W
01/10/2011 M5.1 INCH MINNEHAHA SD TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTHEAST SIOUX FALLS. STORM TOTAL.

0300 PM SNOW WINDOM 43.87N 95.12W
01/10/2011 E3.3 INCH COTTONWOOD MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0300 PM SNOW SIOUX FALLS 43.54N 96.73W
01/10/2011 M5.8 INCH MINNEHAHA SD AMATEUR RADIO

0306 PM SNOW BRUNSVILLE 42.81N 96.27W
01/10/2011 M8.3 INCH PLYMOUTH IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0315 PM SNOW VERMILLION 42.78N 96.93W
01/10/2011 M8.5 INCH CLAY SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0322 PM SNOW HURON 44.36N 98.22W
01/10/2011 M8.1 INCH BEADLE SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

Closer to the metro, there are some 3"+ totals coming in from south central Minnesota.
Here's the data from Twin Cities NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
01/10/2011 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.18 INCH LIQUID

0305 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
01/10/2011 M3.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0117 PM SNOW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
01/10/2011 E3.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0114 PM SNOW WINNEBAGO 43.77N 94.17W
01/10/2011 E3.0 INCH FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Here at the Huttner Weather Lab in the west metro, I measured just under an inch (.80") of "powdered sugar" snow as of 4pm Monday.

Expect the snow to continue through Tuesday as the system slogs slowly east. I still expect snowfall totals in the greater metro area of 2" to 4" inches by Tuesday night.

Heavier snowfall of 5" to 10" is possible in south central Minnesota.

NAM 84 hour snowfall painting some 6" totals along the I-90 corridor!

Impressive snowfall totals over 1 foot are likely with this system in much of northern Iowa.

Extreme Cold Warnings:

As if we need another reason to question our sanity for living in Minnesota. NWS is rolling out a new warning. Get set for the "Extreme Cold Warning." Feels like an event in the "X-Games" for winter weather terminology.

Here's the scoop from the Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...EXPERIMENTAL USE OF EXTREME COLD WARNING TO START MONDAY...

BEGINNING MONDAY...JANUARY 10 2011...AND CONTINUING THROUGH APRIL 15
2011...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES BASED IN THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CHANHASSEN...WILL BEGIN ISSUING AN
EXPERIMENTAL EXTREME COLD WARNING.

OCCASIONALLY...TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW ZERO WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND. CURRENTLY THE ONLY WAY TO HEADLINE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
WITH THE USE OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. THE EXPERIMENTAL
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IN THE RARE SITUATIONS WHEN AIR
TEMPERATURES FALL TO DANGEROUS LEVELS BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO WIND.

EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NON PRECIPITATION WEATHER
PRODUCTS...NPW...AND WILL USE THE VALID TIME EVENT CODE EC.W FOR
DISSEMINATION.

THRESHOLDS...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW TO 34 BELOW.
WIND CHILL WARNING...WIND CHILLS 35 BELOW OR COLDER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...AIR TEMPERATURES 35 BELOW OR COLDER WITH
LITTLE IF ANY WIND.

CAVEAT...

THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES WHERE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS
ISSUED WHEN AIR TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 30 BELOW AND 34 BELOW.
TIME OF YEAR...LENGTH OF OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT WILL BE SOME OF THE
CONSIDERATIONS IN THESE CASES.

IN ALL OF THESE CASES THE ABOVE CRITERIA WOULD NEED TO BE MET OVER
A WIDESPREAD AREA...NOT AN ISOLATED LOCATION...AND FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME...AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS.

COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS...

COMMENTS SHOULD BE SUBMITTED TO THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ECW

NWS CHANHASSEN EMAIL CONTACT AT TODD.KRAUSE@NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS PRODUCT AND OTHER EXPERIMENTAL
PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT:

HTTP://PRODUCTS.WEATHER.GOV/VIEWLISTE.PHP

Thankfully I don't see us reaching the -35 criteria for any extreme cold warnings (even with our weekend arctic front) in the near future. You can let Todd Krause (one of the best!) at our local Chanhassen NWS know what you think of the criteria.

PH

Light Snow: 2" to 4" by Tuesday night

Posted at 8:35 AM on January 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Our next weather system is a slow moving upper low that is spreading light snow into the region.

While not a "blockbuster snow event" the snow will persist through Tuesday night in most areas...and should add up to several inches in most of the southern two thirds of Minnesota.

Here are some forecast snow totals by late Tuesday night.

North Central Minnesota: (Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth) 1" to 3"

Metro: 2" to 4"

Southwest & south central: (Sioux Falls, Worthington, Pipestone, Redwood Falls, Mankato, Albert Lea) 5" to 10"

NAM model output suggests 3.3" of snow at MSP airport by Tuesday night. Note the dry powdery snow:water ratio at 17:1!

Snowmageddon 2010-2011: 3rd snowiest start on record

Our barrage of snow storms this winter season means business. It also adds up to the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record for the Twin Cities! (with similar rankings for much of southern Minnesota)

Some perspective:

-The 45.3" (and counting) metro snow total so far is the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record.

-Average snowfall to date is 24.2" (The metro is +21.1" season to date so far)

-Last winter's entire season snowfall total was 40.7"!

-Average winter snowfall for the metro is 55.9"

Weekend Arctic Outbreak:

It still looks like an arctic cold front will drop south out of Canada into Minnesota this weekend. The models differ on the magnitude of the cold wave. It may take another day or two to determine just how cold it will get by Sunday, but Minnesotans should prepare for what may possibly be the coldest shot of air so far this winter.

It is possible temps may stay below zero Sunday, and that we may (significantly?) plunge below our coldest temperature so far in the metro which has been -8.

Arctic front due this weekend. (Click for bigger image)

Stay tuned!

PH

Cold Winter? Blame it on Siberian snow. (Next snow Monday?)

Posted at 5:43 PM on January 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter

Are you shivering this winter? Tired of shoveling snow? Stunned by "snowpacolyptic" video from the eastern USA & Europe this winter?

Blame it on Siberia. One researcher believes weather in Novosibirsk affects Northfield.

It's an interesting (and emerging) scientific twist on what may trigger colder than average winters in the Northern Hemisphere. The theory is that extensive fall snow cover in Siberia favors colder winters in the much of USA & Europe.

Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. thinks he has found the link. His work appears in the Journal of Climate.

Here's the write up from Science Central:

"If there was above normal snow cover in Siberia in October, there tended to be colder temperatures in the Eastern U.S. in the wintertime," Cohen says.

Cohen showed that his model outperforms today's commonly-used forecast models in predicting forecasts for the last 35 years of weather. But he says actual predictions are what make or break a model--or a reputation.

Cohen's forecast for winter 2011 (Jan-Mar) sticks a cold weather bull's eye right over...you guessed it...Minnesota.

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Jan-Feb-Mar 2011 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting warm for the Southwestern US and cold for much of the Northwestern US, the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Northeast and the Southeast. The model uses October Siberian snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies, and predicted winter sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in its 2011 winter forecast. October 2010 snow cover was observed to be above normal, which favors below normal temperatures for the Eastern US. We are also anticipating a stratospheric warming in January with cold weather to follow.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER Inc.

Andrew Revkin from the New York Times is keeping tabs on the prediction.

The National Science Foundation report further explains:

"Researchers have validated a new weather prediction model that uses autumn snowfall to predict winter cold in the United States and Europe. When snowfall is high in Siberia, the resultant cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances, which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere, or stratosphere, warming the polar vortex. When the polar vortex warms, the jet stream is pushed south leading to colder winters across the eastern United States and Europe. Conversely, under these conditions the Arctic will have a warmer than average winter."

ENSO cycles have been the primary driver of winter seasonal climate forecasts so far. That may change if Cohen's October Siberian snowfall theory continues to pan out. Of course there is the question, are ENSO cycles driving October snow patterns in Siberia? It could be another chicken & egg scenario, but anything that helps refine seasonal forecasts has great value...whether it's chicken or egg.

So far, Cohen's predictions look good for the winter of 2011, and with cold (and potentially plowable snow!) is on the way the next two weeks, including the potential for a few inches Monday & Tuesday...and again Friday.

Some forecast models suggesting 3"+ potential Monday & Tuesday?
(Click for bigger image)

Of course, many Minnesotans may be hoping Cohen's winter 2011 forecast somehow goes horribly wrong...and a prolonged winter thaw sets in. That's not looking likely at this point.

Stay tuned, have a great weekend... and be ready for more potential snow Monday.

PH

Nowcast: PM Drive snow, metro spinouts

Posted at 4:35 PM on January 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Update: 4:40pm:

Light snow continues in much of eastern Minnesota including the Twin Cities, Rochester, I-35 south to Albert Lea, I-94 east into Wisconsin. Snow will begin to taper off in St. Cloud & Mankato as the system slides east in the next few hours.

Roads are slick in spots, traffic is congested, and there are multiple crashes in the Twin Cities metro according to MNDOT.

Current Incidents
Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
812 Crash on Mainline I-94 EB @ Hemlock Ln Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 16:15
414 Crash on Mainline I-494 EB Just cleared Mon @ 15:45
702 Stall on Mainline I-694 EB @ Main St Just cleared Mon @ 16:27
600 Crash on Mainline I-35 NB @ 205th St Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 16:11

Headlights glare on icy pavement in MNDOT traffic cam at I-35 at 205th street.

Use caution this evening as the snow begins to slide east, but leaves icy spots behind.

PH

Update 3:50pm:

A few spinouts now being reported by MNDOT in the metro.

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
221 Crash on Mainline T.H.100 NB @ 36th Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:25
419 Crash on Mainline I-494 WB @ Portland Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:40
602 Crash on Mainline I-35 NB @ Co Rd 60 Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:37

Driver spunout into the median along I-35 near Co. Road 60

Original post 3:05pm:

Snow has arrived in eastern Minnesota and the metro just in time for Monday PM drive.

The snow is generally light as expected, but may be just enough to cause some icy spots on frozen pavement into this evening. Accumulations should center on an inch of arctic fluff. Plan accordingly as you travel into this evening.

A weak clipper like system is spawning the snow band as it rotates around a larger "polar vortex" centered over Hudson Bay. Expect snow to end in Minnesota this evening as the system quickly slides east into Wisconsin.

The core of the codest air lies within the polar vortex just north of Minnesota. Note the big temperatures contrast today over the Midwest, with milder 30s in Iowa...and sub zero temperatures over northern Minnesota.

PH

Polar vortex rules: Snowy PM drive today

Posted at 8:42 AM on January 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Winter

Welcome to a real January in Minnesota.

A big spinning pool of frigid low pressure called the "polar vortex" is large and in charge this month Canada and the northern USA. The polar vortex roams around the far north in winter, but migrates southward at times. When it does, the slowly spinning whirl deals Minnesota and the Upper Midwest bouts of cold and (generally light) snow.

The polar vortex today is swirling over Hudson Bay and looks to be in no big hurry to move on this month.

You can think of the polar vortex as a big bicycle wheel of low pressure. It spins slowly, and each time one of the "spokes" passes overhead, it brings a shot of light snow. These clipper like spokes generally deliver a dusting of arctic fluff.

Snowy PM Drive today:

The next spoke in the polar vortex wheel is spinning through Minnesota today. Look for a swath of snow to spread from west to east today from near Ortonville and Morris this morning eastward to the Twin Cities by mid afternoon.

Snow accumulations should generally be light, with around an inch expected for much of central and southern Minnesota. Where snow is persistent in some areas, a little more could accumulate...a little less in other areas.

With surface and pavement temps in the teens, it won't take long for roads to ice up today. Expect icy road conditions to develop today from west to east, and PM drive in the metro could produce some slick & slow travel. This will be a light snow by recent "storm" standards...but could have a higher impact due to the cold temperatures.

Long range outlook: Arctic outbreak ahead?

All atmospheric signs point to continued cold and bouts of snow for the next two weeks. As much as I'd like to see a warm up, I just don't see it in the cards though mid-month. In fact, there are signs of a significant arctic outbreak later next week, around or after January 13-15th.

If the medium range models verify, we could see sub-zero air and bitter wind chills lock in for a few days to a week over most of Minnesota and much of the eastern USA by late next week. The cold may push all the way south to Florida once again. Minnesota (including the metro) may not climb above zero for a few days if this pattern takes hold.

Stay tuned.

Slight chance of a "January Thaw" on the far horizon?

There are some (very slight) hints at a possible January thaw around or after the 20th.

As the core of the coldest arctic air drains south out of Canada in winter, it is often replaced by a much milder Pacific air mass. It's still iffy, but there are some signs that could happen around or after January 20th.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one. In the mean time expect a shot of snow this afternoon & evening and real January cold to dominate through mid-month.

Stay tuned, and stay warm!

PH

A taste of a thaw

Posted at 7:02 AM on December 27, 2010 by Craig Edwards (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter

Image of the surface pressure and temperatures for noon CST on Thursday.

Since late last week, meteorologists have monitored the computer models forecast track of a developing center of low pressure. At one point, the track and intensity would have placed a good hunk of Minnesota in a heavy snow band.

The most recent GFS model is still generating a decent storm system but pushing the track of the low further to our west. This would put much of the state into the warm sector (to the right of the low pressure track). Thus not only would there be less snow, but the potential for some freezing rain and perhaps just rain in southeast Minnesota later in the week.

A tally of monthly snowfall amounts shows a range of only about ten inches in northwest Minnesota, to as high as forty-one inches at Rochester. The measurements of snow, taken at the Twin Cities International airport have totalled 33.4 inches for December. That is a new record for December for Minneapolis/St. Paul, beating the old record of 33.2 inches set in 1969.

The weather of Christmases past

Posted at 6:00 AM on December 24, 2010 by Than Tibbetts (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter

Mark Seeley passes along a few interesting notes about Christmas Eve weather:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minu 11 degrees standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees standard deviation).

The highest daily maximum temperature ever recorded at MSP on Christmas Eve was 47 degrees in 1909, while the lowest daily max was a chilly -10 F in 1983. The lowest low temperature recorded was -31 degrees in 1872, while the highest low was a balmy 35 degrees in both 1877 and 1982. Last year set the record for snowfall at 5.2 inches.

When you dive into the state's climatic database, the all-time high for this date is 57 degrees F at Northfield (Rice County) in 1888; the all-time low is -43 degrees F at St. Vincent (Kittson County) in 1884. The state record daily snowfall for this date is 15.5 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1959.

The 1870s brought several weather extremes on Christmas Eve. In 1871, December 23-24 brought 13 inches of snow to Whitewater in Winona County, a record amount. In 1872 Christmas Eve started out at -34 degrees F in the Twin Cities area and warmed all the way up to -4 degrees F. The next day brought 5 inches of new snow. In 1877, Christmas week was downright balmy with daytime temperature readings in the 40s and 50s F in the Twin Cities area. Even overnight low temperatures did not fall below 34 degrees F. Then in 1879 the bottom dropped out of the thermometer as Christmas Eve brought -19 degrees F and Christmas Day started out at -39 degrees F in the Twin Cities area, the coldest Christmas ever.

Over December 22-24, 1959 a three day snow storm brought 32 inches to Isabella in Lake County, one of their biggest snow storms in history. Snow depth on Christmas that year was over 3 feet, as snow shoes were needed to get around.

December 24, 1983 brought dangerous wind chill conditions to most of the state as values ranged between -50 and -60 degrees F. The last episode of dangerous wind chill conditions on Christmas Eve was in 2000 when values ranged from -40 to -50 F for a time.

More "free insulation" on the way

Posted at 5:05 PM on December 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter

Update 5pm:

It still looks like there may be two chances for (generally light) snowfall this week. A clipper on Thursday may spread snow into Minnesota, and a there is the potential for a second shot Saturday.

PH

You may find yourself doing a double take at the calendar today.

Yes, it's still December. And no, you didn't wake up from a long winter's nap and sleep through Christmas. (Sounds tempting, yes?)

Our wintery landscape has the look and feel of mid-January these days. It's like living in a snow globe in Minnesota...a few seconds after you shook the pretty scene inside the glass bubble. Snow is still drifting down...ever so slowly.

It's pretty from the inside, but one step outside and it feels like January 15th. That's what we call a "window forecast" in weather.

Last weekend's prolific snow producer was like a clipper on steroids just south and west of the metro. Some tremendous snow totals between 9 and 11 inches fell in a band from Litchfield & Hutchinson to Lakeville, Northfield to near Rochester.

Impressive snow totals.
(Click to enlarge)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2010

...SNOWFALL SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 3RD AND 4TH SNOW STORM...

THE ACTIVE WINTER CONTINUED INTO EARLY DECEMBER FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AS A PACIFIC
ORIGIN SYSTEM MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON DECEMBER
3RD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH. SNOWFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WERE THE HIGHEST IN A SWATH FROM NEAR MORRIS
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TWIN
CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.70 2 SSW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
11.60 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0630 AM
11.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0638 AM
11.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0702 AM
11.00 1 S STANTON MN GOODHUE 0754 AM
10.90 WANAMINGO MN GOODHUE 0743 AM
10.70 1 S HAMPTON MN DAKOTA 0807 AM
10.50 CARVER MN CARVER 0700 AM
10.50 2 NW CHASKA MN CARVER 0807 AM
10.50 2 SW CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0825 AM
10.50 SW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1015 AM
10.20 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0743 AM
10.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0757 AM
9.90 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0807 AM
9.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0730 AM
9.10 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0622 AM
9.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
8.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0757 AM
8.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0743 AM
8.50 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0807 AM
8.50 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0807 AM
8.50 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0928 AM
8.30 WACONIA MN CARVER 0705 AM
8.10 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
8.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT LOWER ST. ANTHONY FALLS
8.00 COKATO MN WRIGHT 0740 AM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0800 AM
7.80 1 SW RED WING MN GOODHUE 0705 AM
7.50 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0927 AM
7.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0743 AM
7.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1039 AM
7.20 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0835 AM
7.10 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
7.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0750 AM
7.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0807 AM
6.90 5 N COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0807 AM
6.70 4 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0700 AM
6.70 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0807 AM
6.60 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0843 AM
6.60 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 1036 AM
6.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0742 AM
6.50 WAVERLY MN WRIGHT 0958 AM
6.40 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0807 AM
6.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL INTL AIRPORT
6.10 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0828 AM
6.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0907 PM
6.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0705 AM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0705 AM
6.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0705 AM
5.90 1 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0828 AM
5.80 SE LAUDERDALE MN RAMSEY 0807 AM
5.80 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0921 AM
5.80 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 1034 AM
5.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
5.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0600 PM
5.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
5.30 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1000 AM
5.00 WELCOME MN MARTIN 1218 PM
5.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST. CLOUD PRISON
5.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
5.00 6 W EAST BETHEL MN ANOKA 0608 AM
5.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0705 AM
5.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0705 AM
5.00 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0740 AM
4.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0705 AM
MEASURED AT SCSU
4.80 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0807 AM
4.60 NEW RICHMOND WI ST. CROIX 0622 AM
4.60 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0807 AM
4.60 1 SW CHISAGO CITY MN CHISAGO 0807 AM
4.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0638 AM
4.50 2 NNW NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0843 AM
4.30 BOWLES MN MORRISON 0858 AM
4.20 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0800 AM
4.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0633 AM
4.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
4.00 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0818 AM
4.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0953 AM
3.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0743 AM
3.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1038 AM
3.60 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0632 AM
3.50 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0608 AM
3.50 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0912 AM
3.30 RICE MN BENTON 0705 AM
3.30 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0803 AM
3.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
3.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0807 AM
3.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0807 AM
3.00 2 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0825 AM
3.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0840 AM
3.00 7 NNW OGILVIE MN KANABEC 1034 AM
3.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1037 AM
2.80 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0158 PM
2.60 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0632 AM
2.30 3 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0806 AM

The forecast models did an excellent job with laying out the heavy snow area for the clipper, but an unusual injection of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, combined with cold air in the system to squeeze out every inch of snowfall potential.

The "enhanced clipper" had staying power, spreading heavy snow from the northern Rockies into the Ohio Valley.

Free insulation!

If you grumbled a little while pushing the relatively light but deep powder off your driveway, you may be relieved to know there are some benefits of all that snow on your roof. It turns out snow is a great insulator!

Here's the deal. A light fluffy snow like last weekend's leaves tiny air pockets between the snow crystals as it piles up. The trapped air makes an excellent insulator.

10" of fresh powdery snow on your roof is roughly equivalent to a 6" layer of fiberglass insulation! That's about an R-18 value added to your roof, roughly the same as in many walls of your home. Maybe we should start forecasting snow storms in "R-Value" instead of inches? "We're looking at an R-18 snow event this weekend...."

An "R-18 snow" on the weather lab roof?

As long as ice dams are not an issue, it may pay to leave this "champagne powder" on your roof a while.

Heavy too:

All that snow can add a ton (literally!) of extra weight to your roof too. Most homes are designed to handle plenty of winter snow, usually about 30-40 pounds per square foot.

A dry powdery snow (20:1 snow:water ratio) weighs about 3 pounds per cubic foot. On a 20'x40' roof (800 sq ft) that's about 2,400 pounds of extra weight on your roof. At the other extreme, an extremely wet (and rare) snow (3:1) can weigh as much as 20 pounds per cubic foot. That's as much as 16,000 pounds on a 20'x40' rooftop!

Chilly week ahead:

It looks like polar air is locked in through Wednesday in Minnesota. If we lose the stubborn clouds (which could happen overnight tonight) we may see temperatures plunge to zero of just below in much of Minnesota early Tuesday morning. If we dip below zero in the metro, it will be the coldest night (and our first sub-zero night) in nearly 11 months...since we hit -5 last January 29th.

Temperatures will briefly moderate to near 30 by Thursday, as a clipper slides by to the north. That system could bring a light snow to southern Minnesota, and maybe a shot of 2"-4" up north. A clipper ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday may bring another shot of snow.

There are signs of a potential thaw along about December 14-16th, but overall December looks like a cold end to a mild year in Minnesota and much of the USA.

No escape to sunny Florida:

Be glad you didn't book that warm weather getaway to sunny Florida this week. A hard freeze with low temps in the 20s in on tap. No doubt this will make news headlines on networks and cable news outlets as citrus growers douse trees in ice to try and ward off damage form the freeze.

Stay warm, and enjoy the pretty snow scene outside your window!

PH

Winter Weather/Hazard Awareness

Posted at 3:18 PM on November 16, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter

While we were enjoying a couple of days in the sixties early last week and then turned our attention to a weekend snow storm we overlooked the important information on Winter Weather and Hazard Awareness. If you were in the region that received a dump of heavy snow you had the opportunity to recall winter hazards.

A link for Winter Awareness information.

For recollection, I've posted the graphic of the thirty-year average snowfall for Minnesota. As we often said at the Weather Service, there is snow and there is quality snow. A heavy wet snow early in the autumn or late in the winter can create a calamity. But a high quality, accumulating snow in late November through February is wonderful for outdoor recreation. A six inch base that lasts awhile creates trails for for cross-country skiing and taking to the snowmobile tracks. Ski lodges augment the accumulation when conditions are favorable.

I admit that as I age gracefully winter becomes less thrilling. And when I alip-up and mention that I've had enough of the snow, I get the response, "You're not from around here."

The winter outlook from NOAA gives hope of a more typical winter in the upper Midwest. Later this month the Climate Prediction Center will release an update on the winter forecast. So far this snow season (there is no designated official date to launch the season) Duluth has accumulated more than eighteen inches.

NOAA: A real Minnesota winter?

Posted at 5:48 PM on October 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has been busy lately reading the seasonal outlook tea leaves. This winter, they may come up cold and white for Minnesota.

NOAA's CPC released the official winter outlook today. The big player this year? La Nina. The cooling ocean temps in the tropical Pacific Ocean statistically favor colder than average winter conditions in the Upper Midwest. It's not a slam dunk, but the dice are loaded for colder than average winters (about 70% of the time) during La Nina years.

Ocean temps cooling in the tropical Pacific.

The outlook does divide Minnesota into two areas this year. The CPC favors northern Minnesota for above average snowfall and colder than average temperatures. The outlook for the southern half of Minnesota calls for equal chances of above/ near and below average conditions this winter.

The Twin Cities received just 40.7" of snowfall last winter. Average snowfall for the metro is 55.9" for the winter season. My boss at MPR Steve Nelson put me on the spot today asking me how much snow I thought we would get this winter. I told him I though we would get more snow than last year, and probably end up somewhere closer to our average snowfall of 55.9" Let's hope I'm not scraping too much egg off my face next spring!

PH

Minnesota 2010: Welcome to Chicago!

Posted at 8:46 AM on October 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter

Welcome to Chicago, Minnesota. Or how about Kansas City with lakes. Or tornado alley north.

That's what the climate has felt like to many Minnesotans over the past 7 months. Since March temperatures are running about 4.5 degrees above average for much of Minnesota. That's more like the climate of Chicago, or southern Iowa on the way down I-35 toward Kansas City.

Weather extremes and oddities this year in Minnesota include:

-The first snowless March on record for many Minnesotans. Temps ran + 8.9 degrees in the metro.

-A string of 80 degree days in October, with temperatures running 7 to 10 degrees above average in Minnesota

So in this year of extreme weather, what can we expect in Minnesota this winter? It depends on how you feel the dice are loaded.

The strongest La Nina episode in decades appears to be ramping up in the tropical Pacific. The cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SST's) tend to load the dice in favor of colder than average winters in the Upper Midwest.

CPC agrees with the winter outlook, with odds favoring colder than average temps during the upcoming meteorological winter months of December through February.

But the forecast of a colder winter comes against the backdrop of a longer term trend toward milder (and shorter) winters in Minnesota. Since 1998, winter temperatures in Minnesota have skewed warmer than average for 8 of the past 12 winters.

So the interesting question in this forecasters mind this winter is; will the odds of a colder than average winter in La Nina years overcome the overall long term trend of milder winters in Minnesota?

It's La Nina vs. climate change in Minnesota this winter, and we'll know who the winner is sometime in March.

Enjoy the lingering fall colors this fine fall weekend as we head toward slightly cooler weather next week.

PH

Weather Lab Woolly Bear: Average winter?

Posted at 5:05 PM on September 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: La Nina, Phenology, Winter

I came across this little guy today on the Huttner Weather Lab driveway.

Does the season's first woolly bear caterpillar have a message about the upcoming winter?

Woolly bear on the Huttner Weather Lab deck today.
(Photo by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger image)

According to weather folklore, woolly bears can predict the severity the coming winter. The only fly in the woolly bears ointment is that science does not support the notion of the woolly bear as a predictor of winter weather.

The theory in folklore goes like this: The wider the brown band on woolly bears, the milder the winter. A narrow brown band with more black means a more severe winter.

Scientists have studied woolly bears to try and correlate the thickness of the bands with winter weather. The results show that woolly bears have bands of different lengths in the same year, in the same area. So it appears there is no way to use the woolly bear as a predictor of winter forecast.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for winter favors chances for a colder than average winter in much of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Water temperatures in tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled this summer, and La Nina conditions have taken over. CPC's La Nina advisory forecasts a moderate strength La Nina this winter.

La Nina winters tend to statistically favor average to colder than average conditions in Minnesota, along with higher than average snowfall in the north.

I moved our resident woolly bear onto the weather lab deck for a closer look and a few photos. He was cooperative, but seemed ready to move along after a short time, so I put him back where I found him after the mug shots.

Depending on how this guy stretched out it looked to my eye like he had a medium width brown band, with plenty of black. The non scientific folklore forecast would seem to my eye to indicate an average winter ahead. What do you think?

The Twin Cities recorded a below average 40.7" of snowfall last winter, and recorded the first snowless March in modern records. Average annual snowfall for the metro is a respectable 55.9" for the 30 year period from 1971-2000.

Just seeing the woolly bears move around this time of year as they seek out their winter homes is a sure sign that fall is here, and that winter is (gulp!) around the corner.

PH