Updraft Category Archive: Winter storms

Duluth blizzard rages; Wettest storm since Aug; 50s - even 60 next 2 weeks?

Posted at 4:57 PM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

17" so far at Sawyer southwest of Duluth near Cloquet

Blizzard rages in Duluth gradually easing overnight

Rising rivers due to heavy rain and snowmelt

Major warming trend next week

50s and (even 60s) possible in the next 2 weeks?

Ground Zero Duluth:

The brunt of the storm shifted to Duluth Wednesday.

Blizzard conditions hammered the area all day, with wind gusts recorded in excess of 50 mph most of the day.

Snowfall totals exceed 10" in many areas near Duluth and northwest Wisconsin.

Blizzard to near blizzard conditions will gradually ease overnight, but travel is going to be very difficult into early Thursday.

More than a foot of snow:

The storm produced more than a foot of snow in many locations. Overall the heaviest snow band ran from Alexandra to Rush/Pine City along I-35 north to near Duluth and east into northwest Wisconsin.

Butternut in Ashland County has recorded an amazing 19" of snow so far!

Here is a list of snow fall totals from Duluth and Twin Cities NWS offices.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 28-29TH WINTER STORM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.90 13 NNE BRUCE WI RUSK 0840 AM
13.50 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM
13.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 0142 PM
13.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0826 AM
12.50 4 S ISLAND LAKE WI CHIPPEWA 0812 AM
12.00 CHETEK WI BARRON 0953 AM
12.00 1 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0915 AM
12 INCHES ESTIMATED...STILL SOME FALLING
LIGHT SNOW
12.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0811 AM
12.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0721 AM
12.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0720 AM
12.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0414 AM
APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT OF SNOW SO FAR.
11.50 MILLERVILLE MN DOUGLAS 1122 AM
11.50 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
10.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1250 PM
10.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1236 PM
10.50 MORA MN KANABEC 1006 AM
10.40 CHETEK WI BARRON 0621 AM
10.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0215 PM
10.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 1101 AM
10.00 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM
9.80 3 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0742 AM
9.70 COLFAX WI DUNN 0600 AM
9.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1115 AM
9.40 8 NW MORA MN KANABEC 1214 PM
9.00 WHEELER WI DUNN 0146 PM
9.00 4 W CORNELL WI CHIPPEWA 0925 AM
9.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0845 AM
9.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0835 AM
9.00 10 N CENTER CITY MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
8.80 5 E CLAYTON WI BARRON 1043 AM
MEASURED OFF THE TOP OF THE CAR...
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0201 PM
8.00 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0920 AM
8 INCHES OF SNOW...0.75 INCHES OF RAIN PRIOR
TO THE SNOWFALL
8.00 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0908 AM
8.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0908 AM
8.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0835 AM
8.00 SARTELL MN STEARNS 0700 AM
7.90 CHIPPEWA FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0742 AM
7.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE PRISON.
7.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0812 AM
7.80 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0726 AM
7.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0812 AM
7.50 FALL CREEK WI EAU CLAIRE 0742 AM
7.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1215 PM
7.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 1111 AM
7.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 1232 PM
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT 0.65 INCHES.
7.00 LORETTO MN HENNEPIN 1214 PM
7.00 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0835 AM
7.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0835 AM
7.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0834 AM
7.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0453 AM
7.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0416 AM
6.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0749 AM
6.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0652 AM
6.50 1 N LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
6.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0547 AM
6.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0503 AM
6.20 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
6.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1122 AM
WATER EQUIVALENT OF .96 INCHES.
6.00 2 N GILMAN MN BENTON 1043 AM
6.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0628 AM
6.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0545 AM
5.60 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
5.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0610 AM
5.50 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0514 AM
5.30 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0517 AM
5.00 BLAINE MN ANOKA 1101 AM
5.00 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0520 AM
4.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0743 AM
4.70 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0439 AM
4.50 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 1101 AM
4.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0541 AM
4.40 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0250 PM
4.40 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0639 AM
4.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
4.30 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0835 AM
4.20 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0908 AM
4.10 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1214 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0630 AM
4.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1015 AM
1.7 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT.
4.00 ST CROIX FALLS WI POLK 0835 AM
4.00 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.70 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0617 AM
3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0600 AM
3.40 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0835 AM
3.10 5 NW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
3.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 1031 AM
1.28 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
3.00 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0930 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0417 AM
2.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.
2.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0910 AM
2.70 2 NE MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0720 AM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0730 AM
2.30 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0835 AM
2.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0139 PM
1.70 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
1.60 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
1.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1031 AM
1.20 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0835 AM
1.00 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0835 AM

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. THANK YOU FOR YOUR REPORTS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
19.00 3 N BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 1246 PM
17.00 9 NNE SAWYER MN ST. LOUIS 1200 PM
17.00 WINTER WI SAWYER 0839 AM
4 TO 6 FOOT DRIFTS.
16.50 13 SW MELLEN WI ASHLAND 1034 AM
MEASURED AT CLAM LAKE.
16.50 2 N FIFIELD WI PRICE 1012 AM
16.00 SARONA WI WASHBURN 1030 AM
16.00 4 SE PARK FALLS WI PRICE 0900 AM
15.50 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0731 AM
15.00 BENOIT WI BAYFIELD 1238 PM
15.00 IRON BELT WI IRON 0935 AM
14.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 1110 AM
7 INCHES SINCE 730 AM.
14.30 SHELL LAKE WI WASHBURN 1055 AM
14.00 1 N SPOONER WI WASHBURN 1200 PM
14.00 SHELL LAKE WI WASHBURN 1050 AM
14.00 3 SW GORDON WI DOUGLAS 1049 AM
14.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 1025 AM
13.00 5 N WEBSTER WI BURNETT 0900 AM
13.00 12 NE WEBSTER WI BURNETT 0853 AM
13.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0830 AM
12.30 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 1134 AM
12.00 MASON WI BAYFIELD 1220 PM
12.00 ASHLAND WI ASHLAND 1010 AM
8.1 INCHES SINCE 700 AM
12.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0941 AM
12.00 ASKOV MN PINE 0900 AM
VSBY LESS THAN QUARTER MILE
12.00 GLIDDEN WI ASHLAND 0853 AM
11.50 GILE WI IRON 1239 PM
11.00 MONTREAL WI IRON 0241 PM
10.50 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0147 PM
10.00 HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 0200 PM
10.00 11 N BRULE WI DOUGLAS 0120 PM
10.00 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0920 AM
10.00 PINE CITY MN PINE 0840 AM
9.40 SAXON WI IRON 0851 AM
9.00 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0255 PM
0.1 INCHES IN THE PREVIOUS ONE HOUR.
9.00 SAGINAW MN ST. LOUIS 0131 PM
9.00 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0116 PM
8.00 2 NE DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0231 PM
8.00 ESKO MN CARLTON 1257 PM
8.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS 1109 AM
7.70 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 1232 PM
7.50 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0131 PM
7.50 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1218 PM
7.50 2 SSW POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 1025 AM
7.20 MOOSE LAKE WI DOUGLAS 0200 PM
7.00 BRAINERD MN CROW WING 1232 PM

Drought Buster?

Folks have asked if this is a drought busting storm. My answer is yes, and no.

The excessive rainfall and snowfall totals dumped 2" of liquid on a huge chunk of the southern 2/3 of Minnesota. That runoff (and recent storms) will help recharge rivers and lakes in Minnesota. So it will help abate, but not totally alleviate the "hydrologic" (rivers & lakes) part of the drought.

What it will not help much are the soils. With frozen ground not too much of this moisture will soak in. We need ample (even excessive) rain after the thaw to fully recharge drought stricken soils.

Next snow Friday?

After a quiet Thursday, there is a chance of light snow Friday in Minnesota. The system looks small compared to our mid-week blitz, but a couple of inches is a possibility Friday.

Major warm up next week?

The overall weather pattern looks much warmer starting next week.

A mild southwest flow looks to set up next week. That could boost temps significantly above average again. Once we melt off the snow, temps could soar into the 50s.

Looking ahead, it looks like an even warmer pattern may return after a brief cool down.

The GFS is cranking out temperatures in...the 60s by around March 10th-13th!

Let's see if that pattern holds up.

Stay tuned...and stay dry after our epic "Slopacolyypse!"

PH

Spotty snow metro & south: "Whiteout" hammers Duluth!

Posted at 9:37 AM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1.33"+ precip at MSP Airport

Wettest storm in 7+ months for metro and much of southern Minnesota

July 15th - last time we had this much rain at MSP (1.84")

2 feet rise at Minnesota River in Mankato last 24 hours

12"+ snowfall totals at Alex, Rush City & Rice Lake

1" to 4"+ totals in metro area

Whiteout! High winds & heavy snow hammering Duluth

No travel recommended along I-35 near Duluth

Whiteout at Duluth Harbor!

Call it the storm that keeps on giving!

Heavy snow is pounding Duluth and surrounding areas into northern Wisconsn today.

Duluth is getting hammered with 50+ mph winds, heavy snow and whiteout conditions.

The snow was late in getting to Duluth, but now 6" to 12"+ will come fast and hard with blizzard conditions.

MNDOT recommends no travel along I-35 near Duluth today.

Numerous 12"+ Snowfall totals now coming in:

The storm delivered the 1'+ snowfall as advertised. Here are some locations reporting at least a foot of snow.

-Alexandria 12"
-Pine City & Rush City 12"
-Hayward & Cumberland, WI 13"
-Rice Lake, WI 13.5"
-Bruce, WI 15.9"

-Latest snowfall summary here.

Wettest storm in 7+ months for metro!

The 1.33" (and counting) precip so far at MSP Airport is the most we've seen in over 7 months. The last time the metro and most of southern Minnesota had this much precip was July 15th when MSP recorded 1.84" in heavy rain!

Rivers Rising!

The runoff is gushing into area rivers.

Take a look at the MN River gauge at Mankato. The river has shot up nearly 2 feet in the past 24 hours!

The abundant rain and snow is great news for easing (but not ending) Minnesota's drought. Runoff from rain and snow will help boost river and lake levels, but won't help soils nearly as much because the ground is still frozen and can't absorb the runoff.

We'll still need ample rainfall after the thaw next month to recharge soils.

Power outages:

The weight of the ice and snow on trees and power lines has caused as many as 21,000 homes & businesses to be without power today according to Xcel Energy.

I am concerned about more outages as winds increase today.

You can track outages here.

Metro snowfall 1" (east) to 4"+(west)

The quick snow burst this morning came just in time for AM rush. here's a map of totals in the metro today.

Tornadoes too!

The southern end of our powerful spring-like storm spawned several tornadoes. At least 4 are dead, and Nebraska recorded the first tornado in February history Tuesday!

PH

Comment on this post

AM rush snow fest: Heavy wet snow eases from south this morning

Posted at 7:04 AM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1" to 4" snowfall already in the metro this morning!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0414 AM
11.50 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
10.40 CHETEK WI BARRON 0621 AM
9.70 COLFAX WI DUNN 0600 AM
8.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0450 AM
7.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0453 AM
7.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0416 AM
6.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0652 AM
6.50 1 N LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
6.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0547 AM
6.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0503 AM
6.20 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
6.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0628 AM
6.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0545 AM
5.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0610 AM
5.50 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0500 AM
5.30 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0517 AM
5.00 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0520 AM
4.70 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0439 AM
4.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0541 AM
4.40 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0639 AM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0630 AM
4.00 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.90 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.70 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0617 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0417 AM
2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM

Snow fading from south to north this morning in metro

Snow totals so far:

6"+ for Little Falls, Isanti & Delano

8" for Mora

12" in Alexandria!

Heavy snow continues from the metro north & west

Snow fades south metro and south/east

Icy/snowy scene along I-394 in west metro this morning!

-Latest snow totals here

-Latest Twin Cities radar

19,000 homes without power as of 7:30am

The storm that keeps on giving!

The changeover to snow occurred as expected overnight. Heavy snow bursts dropped visibilities and laid down a quick 2" to 4" in the metro.

Expect snow to taper from the south in the Twin Cities for a while this morning, whil the storm rages north and west of the metro.

As you would expect, travel is very difficult from the metro north & west.

Plan plenty of extra time today!

PH

Comment on this post

Storm Phase 3: Metro change to snowy AM rush; Heavy snow north

Posted at 10:22 PM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Warnings continue Wednesday for most of central Minnesota

Heavy snow totals for western & central MN

Transition to snow for metro by Wednesday AM rush

Slick AM rush for the metro Wednesday!

1" to 3" snow likely for metro Wednesday on colder "backside" of system

Higher totals possible in the north metro?

Snow-rain-ice-sleet Just another day at the Weather Lab Tuesday!

Signs of spring: A shot at 50 next week & weekend?

3 Phase Storm System:

This turned to be a 3-phase system for the metro and much of southern Minnesota. With the exception of more ice than I expected Tuesday evening, phases 1 and 2 behaved about as I expected.

Phase 1: AM snow moved in

The first wave of the storm brought a shot of AM/Midday snow to the area. Totals were well under an inch in most areas.

Light AM snowfall with rain "dents" in the afternoon

Phase 2: Transition to rain

The second phase of the storm brought warmer air and a heavy mix of precip to Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It was mostly rain for the metro by later Tuesday as expected...some of it heavy.

A wet rainy weather lab driveway late Tuesday PM

"Icepacolypse!"

Temps hovered close to freezing, and objects that had been chilled to sub-freezing by Monday night's cold remained cold enough for rain to freeze on contact.

Most of the models projected temps between 34 and 37 by late Tuesday. Instead they hovered between 31 and 34 in most of southern Minnesota including the metro. That's good enough for ice...and that's what we got.

Ice thickness from 1/4 up to 1/2 inch were observed at the weather lab in the west metro and in Highland Park.

Winter anticipates spring? Ice over lilac buds in Highland park Tuesday night. (Photo by Bill Stein)

4 precip types in one day!

It's not often we get 4 precip types in one day, but that's what I saw at the weather lab Tuesday.

-First light AM snow, then some brief bigger flakes after noon.
-Then rain late PM...some heavy
-Then freezing rain and an icy coating on everything
-Then sleet Tuesday night

What's next...locusts?

Now: Phase 3

As the center of low pressure moves by early Wednesday, cooler air will get yanked in behind the storm.

Look for mixed precip to change back to all snow between 3am and 6am in the metro.

We could see a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow early Wednesday, and some quick 1" to 3" totals...wait for it....just in time for AM rush!

With the low tracking a little further south, the north metro could see some higher snowfall totals.

I still expect t see some 6" to 12"+ totals come in from Alex, St. Cloud, to Hinckley to near Duluth.

Snow should taper to flurries as the day wears on...but winds will howl from the northwest and gust over 30 mph in open areas.

Stay safe and enjoy the rest of the storm!

PH

Comment on this post

Tracking: Metro icy mixed precip & rain; Possible Ice Storm?

Posted at 7:13 PM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Update 7:15pm:

Ice storm in progress. Only question now is how bad?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS.

Ice coated trees and power lines in Highland Park. (Photo by Bill Stein)

Update 6:30pm:

With temps hovering around 32 in metro I'm getting more concerned about a possible full blown "ice storm" tonight.

Icy coating on trees and power lines in the west metro Tuesday evening.

Temps upstream in southern Minnesota are around 34 in some locations. If we squeak another degree or two tonight it's no big deal. If it holds at 32, expect significant icing tonight.

There is the potential that some areas could see significant ice accumulation on trees and power lines causing power outages.

It will not surprise me to see ice storm warnings issued if temps do not budge.

Stay tuned...and watch for ice tonight!

PH

Mixed rain/snow/ice on radar with temps hovering near freezing Tuesday evening.

Rain drops make dents in leftover light AM snow coating at weather lab Tuesday PM.

***posted 5:13pm CST***

Waves of mixed precip tonight from metro south
(mix as far north as St. Cloud?)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Mostly snow along and north of an Alex-Brainerd-Duluth line

Heavy wet snow of 7" to 15"+ from Alex/Fergus Falls to Brainerd & Duluth

Ice accumulations in some areas tonight

Metro mix tonight changes back to all snow by 4am?

1" to 3" totals likely for most of metro early Wednesday morning

3"+ possible in the north metro Wednesday morning

Subtle changes (temp & track) may mean more Metro snow Wednesday

Wet & rainy MNDOT Traffic Cam and freeways Tuesday afternoon. (I-394/494)

System Overview: Still on track, with subtle (but important?) forecast changes

Our well advertised weathermaker has arrived and is behaving mostly as expected so far. There are however a few subtle, but potentially important changes that are worth noting.

Let's focus on the possible changes.

1) The warm air still looks to push north with the system well into the metro causing a change to a mix/sleet/ice to rain situation overnight. The 18Z model runs (and surface observations) suggest the push may not be quite as strong as earlier suggested.

-This could mean more icing from liquid precip tonight with locations that don't climb above freezing vs. those that can achieve at least 33 degrees.

***I am now a bit more concerned about icing in southern Minnesota and the metro. If temps hover near freezing, rain may freeze on contact and cause significant ice storm conditions! There could be significant ice coating on trees and power lines tonight!***

2) The NAM & GFS 18Z tracks are ever so slightly south of the previous runs...but still a good 100 miles north of where it was 48 hours ago.

-This may mean a more rapid changeover to snow on the system's colder "backside" around 4am for the metro, when sufficient moisture lingers to pump out a period of heavy wet snow before the system pulls out later Wednesday.

There is also the potential that the northern metro could see more than 3" Wednesday...with totals increasing rapidly to 5" to 10" as you move along I-94 toward St. Cloud.

The height of the storm!

The main body of precipitation is moving through tonight. The height of the storms ability to generate heavy precip through intense lift or "upward vertical velocity" (UVV) peaks between 6pm and 6am Wednesday.

Radar shows main precip shield moving north late Tuesday PM.

This the period where snowfall and rainfall intensities will peak. Expect bursts of heavy snow/sleet/icing/rain depending on how far north you are overnight.

NWS trims advisories:

Reflecting the northward track shifts, Twin Cities NWS has trimmed back advisories to the north.

Winter Storm Warnings have been cancelled for the central and southern Metro, replaced by winter weather advisories.

Bottom Line:

Stay tuned as the mix of ice/rain/snow evolves overnight. Expect winter travel conditions especially north & west of the Twin Cities metro!

PH

Comment on this post

Update: Snow/sleet to rain today for metro; Heavy snow north!

Posted at 11:39 AM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (8 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Noon Update:

Next wave of mostly snow/sleet moves through metro early PM. Warm air should change precip over toward rain between 3pm and 6pm, but we could see a shot of snow & sleet until then.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

1st waves of snow & mixed precip arrive in Minnesota

Warm air pushing north today & tonight

Morning model runs still strongly support change to all rain for metro by this evening

Snow coverage & intensity increasing today in central Minnesota

7" to 15"+ snowfall possible from Alex to Brainerd & Duluth!

Up to 1" of rainfall for metro later today & tonight?

Localized ponding & street flooding from rain (and snow melt) tonight in metro?

Morning Models: Still on track

Look for mainly light and scattered snow & mixed early, with coverage and intensity increasing this afternoon and evening as the core of the storm approaches.

The morning (12Z) NAM and other models still confirm several key aspects of today's developing storm.

1) The heaviest snow band still appears to lay out from Alex/Fergus Falls to Brainerd to Duluth. A general area of 7" to 15" looks likely here, with some 18"+ totals possible...especially near Duluth and along the North Shore.

2) The so called "freezing line" in the lowest mile of the atmosphere shifts well north of the Twin Cities tonight according to the models. The morning NAM model run lifts the freezing line at 5,000 feet above ground level (850millibars) north of St. Cloud by 10pm tonight.

This should virtually assure a change to all rain for the metro for several hours, most likely between 6pm tonight and 4am Wednesday. This will coincide with the peak of the storm's precip intensity, meaning most of the precip should fall as rain in the metro.

The 12Z (morning) NAM is cranking out 1.67" of precip for the metro with this storm. It appears most of that will fall as rain later today and tonight.

With surface temps above freezing (as high as 37 degrees?) this should mean a very wet night with rain and rain-induced snowmelt triggering some big time puddles from the metro south.

There could even be a few rare February thunderstorms tonight in the metro and southern Minnesota!

As the low moves by tomorrow morning, colder air will funnel in, changing rain back to snow in the metro. It still looks like the metro could pick up 1" to 2"+ of snowfall on the backside of the system Wednesday.

Snowfall amounts will increase in the northwest metro (up to 3"?) and then soar as you head toward St. Cloud on I-94 where 5" to 10" may fall. The heaviest snow bands may produce over a foot...from Brainerd to Duluth!

Stay tuned for updates as the system unfolds this afternoon and tonight!

PH

Comment on this post

Quick shot of AM snow; Transition to sleet & rain this PM metro

Posted at 7:03 AM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

AM rush Nowcast:

Overnight model runs still support earlier post highlighting the change to sleet & rain this afternoon in the metro with temps above freezing.

1st wave of light snow ahead of the system may give us a quick coating to 1" this morning, and create some slick roads in the process.

Stay tuned as we track 1st snowfall with the system this morning, and the likely metro shift to mixed precip.

PH

Comment on this post

Still On Track: Mostly rain metro; Heavy snow north; 50s by Monday??

Posted at 10:16 PM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1.1" NAM model precipitation output for MSP Tuesday & Wednesday
(mostly falling as rain!)

0.7" NAM snowfall output for MSP

7" to 15"+ snowfall likely from Alex to Brainerd and Duluth!

Northern track confirmed on Monday evening model runs

Winter Storm Warnings in effect for much of central Minnesota

Blizzard Warnings for western Minnesota

Still On Track:

The Monday night models confirm my earlier thinking today about the track of Tuesday's storm. It looks like yet another case of a near miss for snowfall in the metro this "winter."

Meanwhile this storm will be serious business from the eastern Dakotas right through central Minnesota to Duluth. Heavy snowfall totals and wind will make for difficult travel in much of the region. Sustained winds of 35 mph may create blizzard conditions from near Morris to along I-94 near Alexandria Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Heavy snow band stays north:

Snowfall totals and coverage still look similar to my earlier posts today, meaning the heaviest snow will fall from Morris to Alex, near and north of St Cloud, through Brainerd to Duluth.

A cool foot could pile up in these areas by late Wednesday.

Metro leans mostly rain: Some "backside" snow?

If anything the evening NAM nudged the system slightly further north/west. That means the warm air may get here about the same time as the precip.

It appears snow or a mix could move into the metro by morning or early afternoon Tuesday, and quickly change to mostly rain. The NAM model raises temps to 33 degrees by 11 am Tuesday, then to 38 by 3-4pm at MSP Airport...and keeps temps above freezing through Tuesday night.

That should mean rain... and mostly wet streets for the greater Twin Cities during most of this event.

We may pick up a quick coating of snow before the changeover early Tuesday, and another shot of snow from the backside "wrap around" Wednesday in the colder air behind the system. I now expect mostly rain with this system...but the metro could pick up 1" to 2" on the systems back side Wednesday.

February rain storm?

One of the more interesting facets of this system is the amount of rainfall that the storm may dump on the metro and areas of southern Minnesota.

Various model runs have been cranking out 1" to 2" of liquid precip with the storm. Monday night's NAM trimmed this to 1.1" for the metro.

GFS model: Up to 2" of rain for metro??

If we get an inch (or two?!) of rain and 38 degrees on top of the .5" water content snow cover from last Monday's metro storm, there's going to be rapid runoff and water in the streets by later Thursday.

Look for some big puddles and the potential for rare February local street flooding from the metro south by Tuesday PM rush and especially Tuesday evening & overnight!

Oh yeah, and there may be enough "lift" to generate some thunder later Tuesday and Tuesday night!

To top it off, the GFS is hitning at a major warm surge Sunday & Monday. Temps may push into the 50s by Monday!

The Grateful Dead might have said it best about this "winter" in Minnesota. "What a long, strange trip it's been!

PH

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Storm Shifts North: Metro "Slop Storm"? St. Cloud & Duluth heavy snow!

Posted at 5:18 PM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Warnings kick in Tuesday

Blizzard Warnings for western MN & eastern Dakotas

Storm track shifts north - again!

Heavy snow band from Wheaton-Morris-Alex-St. Cloud-Brainerd-Duluth (8" to 16" possible!)

Mixed precip types looking more likely for the metro

Starting as snow in the metro Tuesday AM - mix to all rain PM/evening?

Heavy rain possible (Up to 1"+?) Tuesday evening from the metro south!

Localized street ponding & flooding Tuesday night in the metro and south

Good news for easing MN drought regardless of eventual precip types!

Northward Shift Holds:

**That's the main headline as we head into Monday evening. The northward shift I talked about in this morning's model runs has held firm in the PM (18Z) model updates.**

Local NWS offices have acknowledged the northward model shift, but are (understandably) reluctant to let the notion of heavy snowfall go for the greater Twin Cities...even as the Duluth office has expanded winter storm warnings northward to account for the northern track shift.

Here at the Weather Lab I'm leaning more towards a "snow sandwich" for the metro. Precip begins as snow Tuesday AM...changes to a mix Tuesday PM then all ran by Tuesday evening. It may go back to all snow by around 3am Wednesday, but by then a dry slot could shut off heavy precip, keeping snow totals down.

NWS seems to be betting on some "dynamic forcing" with intense precip rates that could keep precip mostly snow in the metro...and that could happen. But right now I'm just seeing too strong of a push of warm air above freezing in the lowest mile of the atmosphere to be overcome by drawing down colder air form aloft.

Honestly, I'm a little freaked out that NWS has not gone stronger toward the mostly rain solution fore the metro. Like they say in those PGA golf promos; "Those guys (and gals) are good."

I'm going to be looking again hard at my forecast tonight before the snow flies to see if there is a trend toward keeping mostly snow in the forecast for the metro. Right now I appear to be the outlier on the low side of snow forecast totals, leaning more toward mostly rain.

Time will tell.

Here the latest breakdown of the system pending tonight's final model runs before the snow starts to fly!

Track:

The system has shifted track again to the north, supporting Monday AM model trends. 24 hours ago some models tracked the surface low through northern Iowa. Now the GFS and NAM agree on a track from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities.

Timing:

Expect snow to break out after midnight tonight in southwestern Minnesota and work east. The GFS brings snow into the metro by sunrise, the NAM holds off until later Tuesday AM.

Precip type:

It looks like all snow at the onset of this event. Snow will begin to pile up early Tuesday morning in western and central Minnesota and continue all day.

In the metro, snow should begin in the morning and stay all snow until afternoon.

By Tuesday 2-4PM there should be a changeover from snow to mixed precip (sleet?) from the metro south... and then a gradual change to all rain later in the afternoon.

Heavy rainfall?

There are indications that the heaviest precip may fall as rain from the Twin Cities south at the height of the storm Tuesday night.

The NAM is cranking out as much as 1.5" of rain in the metro and south along I-35 Tuesday night!

If that happens, there will likely be localized street flooding and ponding of water from rain & snow melt in the metro and south Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals:

As you would expect, the northern track shifts the heaviest snow band to the north.

Right now it looks very likely that the heaviest snow band (all snow for the duration of the event) will run from west central Minnesota (Browns Valley, Wheaton Ortonville & Morris) through central Minnesota (Alex, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs, Mora) into north central Minnesota (Brainerd, Hinckley, and Duluth.)

In these areas anywhere from 6" to 12"+ is likely, with some totals possibly up to or exceeding 18"!

NAM confirms northward snow trend.

In the metro I am expecting a shot of 1" to 3" of snow Tuesday morning before the changeover to sleet/rain. We may pick up another inch or so on the back side of the system Wednesday.

Overall I would say a range of 1" to 4" looks likely for the metro, with the best chance of 4" in the northwest metro. (Anoka, Maple Grove, Buffalo) Snowfall totals should increase accordingly as you move up I-94 towards St. Cloud, where a foot of snow is quite possible.

If the warm air push is not as strong, or the track jogs south again in tonight's model runs I may have to increase snowfall totals for the metro.

Needless to say, stay tuned to see what tonight's model runs do as things can still change!

Next update by around 11pm tonight!

PH

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Winter (Slop?) Storm: Major uncertainties linger for metro precip type

Posted at 8:39 AM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Northward track shift in Monday AM model runs

Reduced snowfall output for Twin Cities from major models

Snow bull's eye shifting north now favoring central Minnesota

Winter storm/blizzard watches & warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday

Major uncertainties still for metro precip types

Precip starts as snow then trending toward mostly rain Tuesday PM/evening for the metro?

-Major 2" "rain event" possible for metro and southern Minnesota with localized street flooding??

Here we go again!

Let me say from the outset, this is going to be one tough storm to forecast for the Twin Cities metro.

It looks more likely today that central Minnesota is in line to pick up heavy snowfall with a widespread area of 6" to 12" including Wheaton, Morris, Alex, St. Cloud, Mill Lacs, Mora and Siren, WI.

Monday AM model trends suggest the Twin Cities is on the razor's edge of rain/ice/snow with the coming winter storm Tuesday & Wednesday.

Take a look at how the forecast models have crashed on metro snowfall output between Sunday PM and Monday morning. The NAM model plunged from 17.4" (Sunday 0Z run) in the metro to 1.5" by Monday morning!

The reason? A northward shift in storm track. The new tracks allow warm air to surge north. If that scenario verifies, snow will change to rain during the height of the storm, and much of the precip could fall as rain instead of snow in the metro!

12Z (Monday morning) NAM model brings 850mb freezing line north of the metro by Tuesday evening. This is often the "rain-snow" line.

Here are some trends in models early Monday.

-Trends suggest enough warm air may surge north to change precip to all rain in the metro by Tuesday PM/evening!

The change to all rain during the height of the storm would reduce snowfall totals significantly for the metro.

Bottom line?

-Latest trends indicate a more "northward" trend with the track of the storm.

-Warm air surging north may change precip to a mix of sleet/ice or even rain in the metro

-Latest trends push heavy snow band (6" to 12"+) north & west of the metro

-Latest metro snowfall trends support lesser snowfal and higher mixed sleet/rainfall totals

-It looks like mostly rain with little snow accumulation along the eastern I-90 corridor (Albert Lea Rochester & La Crosse)

-Either scenario favors heavy precip totals over 1" of liquid Tuesday & Wednesday

Stay tuned!

Brown snow up north??

There are reports of "brown snow" from Sunday's system in northern Minnesota. Apparently, wind borne soil particles from dry areas in the Dakotas may have fed into the system, creating some brownish tint to some of the snow.

Here are the details from Jay Austin of the Large Lakes Observatory.
(Thanks to Jay Austin & Dr. Mark Seeley for passing this along!)

Hi Paul,

jay-

PH

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Next Winter Storm Takes Aim: Metro target this time?

Posted at 12:00 AM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

13.5" snowfall in Silver Bay Sunday!

Heavy snowfall totals in northern Minnesota Sunday

Next storm takes aim at central/southern Minnesota Tuesday-Wednesday

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches/Warnings for Minnesota

Heavy snowfall likely for much of central Minnesota including metro!

Mixed sleet/ice/rain for southern Minnesota (significant icing possible)

1" to 2" liquid precip content by Wednesday PM?

6" to 12" widespread snowfall totals likely, with 1'+ totals possible

Next system taking shape:

It was 1 week ago that our weather pattern shifted into "active" mode. Since then 3 separate storm systems have clipped parts of Minnesota with snow.

We focused on northern Minnesota Sunday, now it looks like central and southern Minnesota, and greater Twin Cities Metro, are under the "Bull's Eye" this time.

System #4 is taking aim Tuesday & Wednesday, and it looks like a duzy.

We're still a good 24 hours away from the main body of the storm so the track may still change, but this could likely be the biggest snowfall this winter in the metro and much of central Minnesota.

Let's break down the system as it looks heading into early Monday.

The System:

A classic "Colorado Low" pressure system forming on the lee side of the Rockies in Colorado Monday. Colorado Lows tend to produce heavy snowfall totals for Minnesota, and can trigger lighting and thunder.

The Track:

There are still some slight (but important) differences in track forecasts for the low pressure center.

The 0Z NAM tracks the surface low from Sioux City, IA east through northern Iowa Tuesday to La Crosse by early Wednesday.

This track would favor all snow for the metro and bring the snowfall "bull's eye" from Willmar through the Twin Cities.

The 0Z GFS favors a more northerly track along the I-90 corridor from Worthington to Rochester.

This track allows warmer air to mix into the metro, and could change snow over to a mix of sleet or ice for several hours Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. It may also allow some "dry slotting" to taper snow intensity early Wednesday. This would reduce snowfall totals in the metro and place the snow "bull's eye" north of the metro from Alexandria to St. Cloud and Mora and Siren, WI.

The European model favors the more northerly GFS track.

Timing:

The GFS is faster and brings snow into the metro by just after midnight early Tuesday morning. The NAM holds off until around 6am Tuesday.

Duration:

Most models end snowfall from west to east Wednesday PM. (around 3pm for the metro)

When you subtract out a period of mixed precip (midnight-6am Wednesday) and a potential "dry slot" the total duration of snowfall appears to likely be around 27 hours.

If snowfall rates average .5"/hour during the storm...that would be a good 13" of snowfall.

Precip Totals:

The models are cranking out about 1.5" of liquid precip for this event in the metro and central MN.

Some may fall as a mixed bag of ice/sleet/rain in and south of the metro. In areas that see all snow, that could produce 15" at a 10:1 snowfall:liquid ratio...which seems likely for this event.

Bigger picture...

Regardless of precip type (rain/ice/snow) that much precip will be a blessing for drought stricken areas in the storms path!

With current snow cover and the coming storm, that could be 2" of runoff for rivers & lakes this spring.

Snowfall Totals?

So the big question for many is..."How much will I have to shovel/drive through?"

Take a look at the differences from the late Sunday night model runs!

GFS model favors 6" to 12" in metro with higher totals north

NAM model favors snow "bull's eye" of 15" in the metro!

I still want to see Monday morning's model runs for any track shifts and see how much warm air surges north ahead of the system. But at this point here's what I expect from the weather lab.

-Widespread 6" to 12"+ snowfall totals from Alexandria through St. Cloud south into the Twin Cities metro by late Wednesday.

-There will be some 12"+ totals (as high as 18"?) somewhere between the metro and Alex-St. Cloud.

-There still is a chance for 12"+ totals in the metro, if the storm follows the NAM's "southern solution."

Wind & Blizzard Warnings!

Forget about snowfall totals for a minute. There will be enough snow and wind in western Minnesota to generate blizzard conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

Blizzard watches/warnings will fly and travel will be downright dangerous in much of central and western Minnesota.

Stay tuned as we get a look at Monday's early model runs, and batten down the hatches for the potential for heavy snow by Tuesday!

PH

Active: Sunday storm mostly north; Still watching "major" Tuesday potential

Posted at 11:40 PM on February 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter storm warnings out for northern Minnesota Sunday

5" to 10"+ possible for Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, International Falls, Iron Range, Ely & North Shore communities

Quick coating to 1" possible in the metro Sunday

Still watching "major" storm potential for Tuesday & Wednesday in much of Minnesota

What you need to know first: Sunday snow will be heavy "Up North"

The long advertised storm is still on track for northern Minnesota Sunday. Expect heavy snow and difficult travel along and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line Sunday.

The Twin Cities and central Minnesota will be on the southern edge of the storm, but still may pick up some accumulating snow early Sunday.

Watch for updated advisories and snowfall totals here Sunday:

-Red River Valley NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Twin Cities NWS

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Next storm Tuesday & Wednesday: Potentially "Major"

The active storm train over Minnesota continues, and I'm still keeping an eye on the next storm headed for Minnesota for Tuesday & Wednesday.

This one looks like it's coming father south, and could affect more of central Minnesota (and maybe the metro) with heavy snow and even rain in southern Minnesota.

GFS model paints (another) major winter storm Tuesday. Twin Cities on the rain/snow line?

With the poor (okay abysmal) model performance of the past two weeks it would be silly to start throwing out potential snowfall amounts yet. Suffice to say at this point that the storm could be major, with heavy totals Tuesday & Wednesday.

There are still several factors that could change this storm and severely impact snowfall totals.

-Shifting storm track (Where have we seen that movie before??)

-Warm air intrusion changing snow to rain in southern Minnesota (and maybe in the metro)

The models have been spitting out wildly varying snowfall totals with the system...literally from 4" to 25" for areas in and near the metro.

Let's see what Sunday's model runs do, and if we can get some consistency on track and thermal profile within the possible storm.

***Suffice to say at this point there is the potential for heavy snow in much of central Minnesota (and maybe the metro) Tuesday and Wednesday***

Stay tuned for updates, and prepare for snowy travel in northern Minnesota through Sunday night!

PH

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Detour: Sunday snow shifts north again; Next (metro) chance Tuesday

Posted at 2:18 PM on February 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter storm watches & warnings for northern Minnesota this weekend

Sunday's system tracking even further north

3" - 6"+ best chance for Grand Forks, Bemidji, Iron Range cities, International Falls, Ely and North Shore.

4" to 9" snowfall from Thursday's clipper from South Dakota to Chicago (Just clipped far southwest Minnesota)

Tuesday & Wednesday next snow chance for Minnesota

Northern Minnesota: Winter Storm this weekend

The northward progression of the forecast models continues this weekend.

At least we have a storm to talk about, and this one is taking aim at the northern third of Minnesota.

Winter storm watches and warnings are flying, and snowfall should peak Sunday as the system moves through.

It looks like most of the accumulating snow will fall along and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line. The best chance for 3" to 6"+ will be north of that....and there may be some 8"+ totals in the BWCA and the high country above the North Shore near Grand Marais.

NAM model snowfall lays out heaviest snow north!

Metro skunked?

It's a good news/bad news scenario for southern Minnesota and the metro this weekend. The northward shift in the storm track means little to no snow accumulation in southern Minnesota.

The good news? Travel conditions will be much better than expected earlier in the week.

The bad news? We realy need some additional snowfall. The extra moisture would have been available to help recharge river & lakes through runoff.

Maybe next time.

Unreliable forecast models?

It's been a tough week for weather forecasters, and shifting forecast models have been nearly useless at times.

First the clipper, which produced prolific snowfall totals from 4" to 9" from South Dakota to Chicago as it took a last second jog mostly south of Minnesota.

Thursday's clipper curved right around Minnesota!

Then there's the ever northward shift in the model tracks for Sunday's storm. That took the snowfall "bull's eye" from the metro all the way to the BWCA as the week progressed.

Last winter both the "Domebuster" (17.1") and the Presidents' Day Storm (13.8") we're well tracked by the models. We were able to give plenty of lead time...and track the systems fairly accurately several days in advance. The modles did a farily good (even great) job of handling the 5th and 15th biggest snowfall events in Twin Cities history!

This winter forecast models have been unreliable, with storm tracks shifting over 100 miles just before potential snowfall events.

It's not just that the tracks are changing this winter, we expect some of that. It's the way they are changing that seems especially random and more unpredictable than usual. It makes me wonder if this strange winter is so out of whack that the assumed model physics just can't deal with the unusual atmospheric realities this winter.

Next chance Tuesday?

So now we cast a leery eye toward the GFS, which is advertising another potential rain/snow system for next Tuesday.

Art this point it's anybody's guess how/where/if/what type of precip will fall. At least there is the notion of a storm...and it may bring some more much needed rain and or snow to drought plagued Minnesota.

Stay tuned!

PH

Sunday snow now favors northern MN; Evening sky show!

Posted at 5:24 PM on February 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Heavy snow band from Sioux Falls through Iowa to Chicago

Sky show in the southwest evening sky through this weekend (if clouds break)

Sunday storm sill looks potent - for northern Minnesota

Twin Cities on the edge of snow (again!) Sunday?

Poor model performance with track of latest clipper

Productive Clipper:

Now that's a nice little clipper!

A potent Alberta Clipper type storm system is dumping a fairly narrow but heavy band of snow Thursday through Friday.

The system tracked from near Sioux Falls South Dakota (where 5" fell) through central Iowa and is making a beeline for Chicago Friday.

The clipper is producing some 4" to 8" snowfall totals, and that should hold as it tracks through Chicagoland Friday.

Bad Models!!

I have to say we saw some poor model performance with the track of Thursday's clipper. Initially the GFS had heavy snow right up to the southern metro with the system, and the NAM painted snow in the metro for a couple of runs.

Good thing I never bought into that solution, because subsequent runs shifted the storm track even further southwest. The shifting advisories from Twin Cities NWS no doubt left them also feeling a bit confounded by the system's ever changing track.

The models did seem to handle the intensity and eventual snowfall output from the system well, but it's had to make an accurate forecast when the geographical distribution of snowfall is off by 100 miles.

Welcome to the big leagues of weather.

Sunday's Storm: Northern Minnesota's savior?

Now we get to look at Sunday's incoming system with weather finger and toes crossed.

One good thing, there seems to be more agreement with the major models on the track of Sunday's storm. For example, both the GFS and NAM bring the surface low from near Wheaton to Willmar to the Northern Metro to Spooner.

That track favors heavy snow in central and northern Minnesota, but not the metro.

NAM model snowfall output favors heavy snow up north.

The storm is still in the North Pacific and won't enter the Northern American surface and weather balloon "data grid" until Friday evening. By then, the amount of data on the incoming system should increase, and hopefully the eventual track will become more accurate.

There's still 36-48 hours and several more model runs ahead before we need to pull the final trigger on snowfall totals for Sunday. But at this point I'm leaning toward lighter snow in the metro and heavier snow north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line.

The models are suggesting 6" to 12" snowfall potential for much of northern Minnesota and especially along the ridge running along the North Shore. If that much snow falls, it will be a blessing for North Shore communities, rivers and streams which are painfully low. Extra snowpack could mean a nice flow in North Shore Rivers this spring and early summer!

Stay tuned!

Snow this week boosted season snowfall for Minnesota communities:

My MPR colleague Mark Seeley has details from his excellent weekly "Weather Talk" blog. Our snow this week helped some seasonal snowfall totals around the state.

Topic: Increase in seasonal snowfall totals

"Monday through Wednesday this week brought several inches of new snow to areas of the state. In fact, it was the snowiest 3-day period of the winter for some observers. In the north International Falls reported 8 inches; Crookston, Orr, Hibbing, Cook, and Two Harbors reported 6 inches; Isabella reported 6.2 inches; and Kabetogama reported 7.4 inches. In central Minnesota Mora reported 5.2 inches and Plymouth 5.0 inches, while MSP reported 2.7 inches. In the south Theilman, and Cannon Falls reported over 2 inches.

The new seasonal snowfall totals for some observers: Gunflint Lake 36.6 inches; Isabella 49.4 inches; Kabetogama 48.3 inches; Orr 40 inches, and International Falls 41.2 inches. Despite the recent snowfall, many locations are still significant seasonal deficiencies: at Duluth the season has delivered just 22.9 inches (normal through the end of February is 65.6 inches); at MSP the seasonal snowfall total is 18 inches (normal through the end of February is 39.7 inches); and at Rochester the seasonal snowfall total is just 20.1 inches (normal through the end of February is 39.9 inches)."

Evening sky show next few nights!?

It looks like you'll have to pick your spots for some breaks in the clouds, but the skies may briefly open up the next few evenings so if they do take a moment to check out the southwestern evening sky.

A rare conjunction of the 3 brightest objects in the sky will glow through this weekend. The moon, Jupiter and bright Venus will snuggle up together in the southwest evening sky for the next few nights.

The details from NASA.

"By the end of the month, the angle narrows to only 10 degrees--so close that you can hide them together behind your outstretched palm. Their combined beauty grows each night as the distance between them shrinks.

A special night to look is Saturday, Feb. 25th, when the crescent Moon moves in to form a slender heavenly triangle with Venus, Jupiter and the Moon as vertices (sky map). One night later, on Sunday, Feb. 26th, it happens again (sky map). This arrangement will be visible all around the world, from city and countryside alike. The Moon, Venus and Jupiter are the brightest objects in the night sky; together they can shine through urban lights, fog, and even some clouds."

The best chance for a few breaks in the clouds appears to be Friday & Saturday evening.

Enjoy!

PH

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Thursday Winter Storm targets SW MN; Sunday track changes?

Posted at 4:55 PM on February 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Watches & Warnings posted for southern Minnesota & northern Iowa

4" to 7" snowfall possible in southwest Minnesota Thursday

Sharp snowfall cutoff on the system's northern edge

Flurries at most for metro

Sunday storm track trending north - watching for more changes

Winter Storm Thursday!

Here we go!

The next winter storm is moving through mainly SW Minnesota Thursday.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest Sioux Falls radar loop

The Alberta Clipper type system looks like an efficient snow producer. It's already produced lightning strikes in Montana, a sign of strong upward lift and potential heavy snowfall rates.

From Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion:

THERE IS ALREADY A LIGHTNING STRIKE UPSTREAM IN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

and...

LOOK OF POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE QUESTION TODAY HAS NOT BEEN IF THERE WILL BE A 6+" SNOWBAND...BUT WHERE.

Here at the weather lab, it looks like a general area of 4" to 7" in southern Minnesota Thursday.

There may be a narrow band that could produce some heavier 6" to 10" totals along the I-35 & I-90 corridors, including northern Iowa.

Prepare for snowy travel conditions in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Thursday!

Twin Cities: On the northern edge

It appears the Twin Cities may just escape the brunt of Thursday's system. The GFS and other models have been consistent in keeping most of the snow south of the metro. The NAM has tried to move snow north...but the latest run is more in line with the GFS's "southern solution."

Sunday: Storm still looks good, but track is a wild card

I'm still closely watching Sunday's potential storm for Minnesota, which is still out over the North Pacific today.

Think about that for a minute. There's a storm over 2,000 miles away in the North Pacific that's likely to affect Minnesota Sunday. That we even have the tools and technology to even make that statement is really quite amazing and useful I think!

But I digress....

Overall the storm structure still looks potent for Sunday, but the track has shifted north.

If that holds, the heaviest snow bands would end up in central and northern Minnesota, The metro could still be in line for some heavy snow....the latest GFS runs are suggesting around 5" or so near the metro...with 6" to 12"+ potential in a large area of central and northern Minnesota.

GFS model suggests heavier snowfall totals north and south of the metro from Thursday & Sunday storms combined.

It's still too early to pinpoint who will get heavy snow or just how many inches. But the storm is still "on" for somebody, at this point it may just be a question of where.

**If the track moves much further north a "dry slot" may limit snow from the metro south, and keep heavier snow totals in central and northern Minnesota.**

At least there are 3 likely storms for "Somewhere, Minnesota" in the next week or so!

Oh yeah, did I mention there's potential for another storm next week?

Stay tuned!

PH

Snow cover effect; Still watching snow chances Thursday & Sunday

Posted at 8:43 AM on February 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Clipper Thursday to bring snow to southern Minnesota

Modles differ on system track Thursday (Rochester or Metro?)

Bigger storm still likely Sunday for Minnesota

GFS shifts track slightly north in latest model runs?

+2 hours of additional daylight since December 21st!

Sunshine returns to the weather lab today!

Sunglasses Alert!

You'll need to find the shades today! The combination of some sunshine and bright "highly reflective" snow cover means it will be brighter out there than it has been for much of this winter.

It's called "albedo." That's the reflectivity of various ground covers on incoming sunlight.

Fresh snow cover is the most efficient solar reflector, returning about 80% to 90% of the sun's incoming energy back into space before it can heat up the air near the ground.

Bare ground can absorb and "reradiate" about 80% of the sun's rays. That energy is then used to heat the air near the surface.

The result? Temps can run a good 10 degrees cooler on days like today with fresh snow cover in Minnesota. If we had bare ground today like most of the winter, we'd likely make a run well into the 40s again; with fresh snow we'll stall somewhere in the upper 30s in most areas.

Thursday Clipper: Which track is best?

The models differ a bit on the track of Thursday's Alberta Clipper sailing in from the northwest.

The clipper looks to feature a relatively narrow band of snowfall about 60 miles wide.

The GFS lays that band out along the Minnesota River towns of Redwood Falls and Mankato southeast toward Rochester, and suggests a 2" to 4" snowfall.

The overnight NAM run shifts the system north...from Willmar into the Twin Cities. It should be noted that the overnight NAM is sometimes less reliable, but it bears watching to see what the next couple of model runs do today!

Sunday storm: Still on track, but which track?

Looking ahead to Sunday's potential snow storm I am reminded that there are 3 main factors that determine snowfall amounts in winter storm systems.

1) Storm Track:

The surface low pressure track is a key to where heavy snow may fall in winter storms. Generally speaking, the heaviest sow band favors an area about 90 to 120 miles north & west of the surface low pressure track.

This can vary of course from storm to storm, but it's a pretty good rule.

2) Moisture Profile:

Obviously, the amount of moisture a storm can draw in effects snowfall totals. The biggest factor in overall snowfall totals for Minnesota is usually the availability of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

If southerly winds ahead of the storm have time to pull up enough Gulf moisture, we get dumped on.

3) Temperature Profile:

Temps within the overall storm are critical to determine precip type and snow intensity. Generally, warm air is drawn up ahead of the system, and cold air wraps in behind mid latitude cyclones in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Often, the freezing, or "rain-snow" line sits just south of these low pressure centers. That's why the heaviest snow lies north of the low track, with mixed precip reducing snowfall totals as you go south.

Sunday's potential system shows some interesting trends.

The overnight GFS runs have shifted the track slightly north. If that pans out, the heaviest snow band could run from near Fargo to Brainerd and Duluth, instead of Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities.

The modes will likely show more shifts in the days ahead.

As usual, I'll wait until about 24 hours ahead of the onset of snowfall to issue my "final" snowfall predictions. This is the window where model accuracy and preparation time for people affected by the storm usually meet. At this point the best information is to say there will likely be a snowfall event Sunday, with specific totals to be determined as we approach the weekend.

Stay tuned!

PH

Sunday Storm: Winter's biggest? NOAA "Hurricane Hunters" dispatched

Posted at 5:00 PM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

18" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

38.8" average season snowfall to date at MSP Airport

-21.6 snowfall vs. average this season in metro

1.77" GFS model total precip output next 16 days

17.7" GFS total snowfall for MSP next 16 days
(assuming10:1 snow to water ratio)

Major winter storm potential for Sunday in parts of Minnesota

Still too early to be sure, but chances for heavy snow Sunday are growing!

NOAA "Hurricane Hunter" Aircraft flight into Pacific storm Friday!

It's Baaaack!

You knew we wouldn't totally escape winter in Minnesota.

Our Monday night/Tuesday snow system left some impressive, widespread snow totals for the first time in months.

It was a March-like snow...heavy and wet. Snow to water ratios ran about 9:1 for this snow fest. New Hope in the west metro picked up .44" of water in the snow. That's the most precip in the metro in 4+ months, since .54" fell as rain on October 12th!

Want some good news? While it's not enough to be classified as a "drought buster" yet, most of this snow (and what falls in the coming weeks) will melt and run into our very low rivers and lakes this spring!

Snow up north too!

This was a widespread snow event, and northern Minnesota got in on the much needed snowfall.

Here are some snow totals from the Northland (Duluth NWS) as of late Tuesday.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE EARLY SNOWFALL REPORTS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY
REPRESENT THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. AT 330 PM SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND FINAL REPORTS
FOR NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.00 2 W LITTLEFORK MN KOOCHICHING 1200 PM
6.90 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING 1200 PM
6.50 8 S BIGFORK MN ITASCA 1200 PM
5.50 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0910 AM
5.00 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 1245 PM
4.80 4 WSW BRUNO MN PINE 0800 AM
4.50 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0715 AM
4.10 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0830 AM
4.00 2 WSW HIBBING MN ST. LOUIS 0800 AM
4.00 2 NNE STURGEON LAKE MN PINE 0700 AM
3.70 4 E ISLAND LAKE MN ST. LOUIS 0910 AM
3.50 7 W GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 1050 AM
3.50 TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 1000 AM
3.50 LARSMONT MN LAKE 0831 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.50 3 S EVELETH MN ST. LOUIS 0804 AM
3.50 3 NNW ILLGEN CITY MN LAKE 0730 AM
3.50 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0600 AM
3.30 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0930 AM
3.20 GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0800 AM
3.10 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 1200 PM
3.00 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1215 PM
3.00 9 NNE HERMANTOWN MN ST. LOUIS 0930 AM
3.00 ASKOV MN PINE 0930 AM
3.00 BEAVER BAY MN LAKE 0910 AM
3.00 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0845 AM
3.00 FLOODWOOD MN ST. LOUIS 0800 AM
3.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0800 AM
3.00 2 W HINCKLEY MN PINE 0730 AM
3.00 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0715 AM
3.00 FINLAYSON MN PINE 0700 AM
2.80 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1000 AM
2.80 TOGO MN ITASCA 0800 AM
2.80 S COTTON MN ST. LOUIS 0650 AM
2.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS 0700 AM
2.40 3 NE DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0700 AM
2.30 1 W LUTSEN MN COOK 1232 PM
QUARTER MILE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
2.20 NISSWA MN CROW WING 0800 AM

I spent the weekend in Lutsen, and was sad to see the pathetically low river levels along the North Shore. You can also see the effects of severe drought in the forest. The North Shore is dangerously perched for a severe fire season as of now...so today's snow is a blessing. The North Shore can use all the snow it can get the next month (and a rainy spring) to get the rivers raging again to ease fire danger.

One of my son Luke's all time favorite teachers is Brien Getten who now lives (and teaches) in Two Harbors. We were fortunate to be able to stop and visit with the Gettens on Saturday at their beautiful property on the Knife River near Two Harbors. Brian says folks on the North Shore are really concerned about fire danger this year and hoping for more snow and rain this spring!

Luke & Mr. Getten on the frozen Knife River Saturday

Thanks for being such a great teacher Mr. Getten!

Sunday was perhaps the most beautiful day I have ever spent skiing at Lutsen. It was amazingly mild and clear, and I would estimate the visibility was at 30 to 40 miles. Simply spectacular!

I've seen more snow at Lutsen, but what is there was groomed and good skiing.

Here are some photos under a deep blue February sky Sunday.

Sunday "Snowpacolypse" Ahead?

Storms have been few and far between this winter, but things are looking up in the snowfall department.

A minor system may bring light snow Wednesday night into Thursday, but the big event on the horizon looks like it may roll in Sunday.

It's early, but this looks like it may have the potential to be the biggest storm of winter somewhere in Minnesota...and maybe the metro.

**It's just too early to say where heavy snow will fall and how much.**

With that disclaimer out of the way, a let's take an early look at Sunday's snow potential.

The System:

A powerful low pressure system is currently emerging into the northwest Pacific from Siberia, north of Japan.

Forecast Track:

The models move the system almost straight east across the Pacific, to near Vancouver and Seattle Friday. The system then crosses the Rockies, dips slightly south then makes a beeline for southern Minnesota Sunday night according to the GFS model.

If that track verifies, that is an excellent track for heavy snow in much of Minnesota.

Gulf Wide Open?

It appears the system will tap plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That could inject deep moisture into the system and wring it out as heavy snowfall over Minnesota Sunday.

Snowfall Potential?

Again...it's too early to put precise numbers on snowfall 5 days in advance.

But at this point all signs point to potentially heavy snowfall somewhere in Minnesota (and maybe in the metro) Sunday.

Look at the GFS "meteogram" for MSP Airport below. That's 12" of snow the GFS is cranking out folks.

Again the track or system could change...but the potential is looking better by the day.

Thunder Snow?

There is the possibility that this system will be strong enough to produce "Thunder Snow" by Sunday night. Again, this all depends on storm track, but the position of the upper low, "vorticity maxima" and upward vertical velocity or "lift" may be strong enough to create mini thunderstorms within the bigger storm.

If that happens, snowfall rates could reach 1" to 3" per hour in local areas.

NOAA: Hurricane Hunter dispatched to fly into storm over Pacific!

In an interesting twist to this storm NOAA will send a flight of "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft into the North Pacific to fly into this developing storm Wednesday.

The flight will drop 17 "dropsondes" into the system at altitudes of 41,000 to 45,000 feet. The data will be fed into NOAA supercomputers to help augment forecast model data; which is sparse over the vast Pacific Ocean.

From NOAA:

NOUS42 KNHC 211630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST TUE 21 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-084

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49 --
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 23WSC TRACK55
C. 22/1930Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z

The additional data should help the models like GFS get a better grip on the incoming storm.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters do occasionally fly into Pacific winter storms. This flight is an indication they think this could be a significant storm for much northern of the USA!

Stay tuned!

PH

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Game On: Snowy pattern could produce 1-2 FEET next 2 weeks!

Posted at 8:34 AM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

3" to 5" snowfall totals in much of the metro Monday night

4" to 7" for much of northeast Minnesota today!

9 to 1 snow to rain ratio (That's a pretty "wet" snowfall)

.44" liquid from snowfall in New Hope

4 months since we've seen this much precipitation in the metro (October 12th .54")

Active jet stream now racing through the Upper Midwest

Several snow systems likely in next 2 weeks

1.5" to 2" GFS liquid precip output next 2 weeks

12" to 20+" snowfall possible for some Minnesota locations next 2 weeks?

Instant winter wonderland at the weather lab Tuesday

NWS snowfall totals from Monday/Tuesday's snow event

Here we go:

It's official.

Somebody flipped Minnesota's snow switch to the "on" position.

Monday's productive snow system was the first wave in what looks to be a series of snow systems aiming for Minnesota in the next 2 weeks.

If the forecasts verify, some parts of Minnesota could pick up 1 to 2 FEET of snow in the next 2 weeks including Monday's snowfall.

A series of storms?

The GFS accurately predicted Monday night's snow system, and it's keeping things active. Here's a break down of potential snow systems in the next 2 weeks according to the GFS.

Wednesday night & Thursday: A clipper like system capable of producing a few more inches (another 1" to 3"+) of snow.

Sunday & Monday: A potential "major winter storm" capable of producing heavy snowfall (6"+?) somewhere in Minnesota depending on storm track.

March 3rd: Another system possible

March 7-8th: Yet another rain/snow system possible

Bosco The Weather Cat surveys the situation

Snow adding up?

If the GFS verifies, total snowfall (including last night & today's system) could be 1 to 2 feet in parts of Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. The last few GFS runs have been cranking out anywhere from 1.5" to 2"+ the next 2 weeks, and that should translate into more than a foot of snow for some Minnesota locations.

4" of heavy wet snow weighs down weather lab shrub

Keep in mind it's not spring yet, and the potential for heavy snow lingers another 5 weeks or so in Minnesota.

This could be great news for easing Minnesota's severe drought.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Impressive snow totals; Slick spots linger for AM rush

Posted at 12:25 AM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

3.8" snowfall at the Deephaven Weather Lab (west metro) as of midnight (and still snowing)

Snow covered and slippery roads overnight

Slick spots remain for AM rush

Latest snow totals from NWS

Major pattern change may bring heavy snow to parts of Minnesota next 2 weeks

3.8" snowfall on the "weather deck" as of midnight

"The Little Storm That Could:"

Now that was a snow event! Monday night's snow blast hit quick & hard, with rapid accumulation of snow once the intense snowfall rate overcame warm ground.

I was in Lutsen this weekend, and drove smack into the snowy blast as I hit the north metro along I-35 Monday evening. Roads became really, really bad in a hurry.

Here's a quick post with some images from Monday night.

Snow on the weather lab deck Monday night, with snow streaks caught on camera

Expect very slick roads early this Tuesday AM! (MNDOT cam I-394 near Wayzata)

"Streaky & Freaky" snow art with flakes falling in camera flash Monday night.

Get used to the snow. The overall pattern looks favorable for numerous snow systems that could produce heavy snow totals over the next 2 weeks for parts of Minnesota!

More on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer (and Updraft) early Tuesday.

PH

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Growing chances for (potentially big?) snow next week?

Posted at 8:45 AM on February 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Happy Valentine's Day from the weather lab!

0.3" snowfall Monday at MSP Airport

15.2" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

61.1" snowfall to date last winter by this date!

Pattern change ahead next week

Snow chances increasing next week?

Major winter storm potential late next week according to GFS model?

Foggy start along I-35 near the Minnesota River today. (MNDOT image)

Foggy start:

It's another foggy start for much of eastern Minnesota today. Residual moisture from Monday's light snow has left a fog blanket around eastern Minnesota. Drier air means ths sun is shining in western Minnesota today.

The fog will thin as the day goes on, and we could see a little sunshine later this afternoon.

Milder days ahead:

The air mass is fairly mild this week. If we get any sun, temps could respond into the upper 30s and maybe touch 40 in southern Minnesota Wednesday.

Pattern change next week: Snow chances increasing?

Last week I posted about the chances for snow increasing the week of February 20th.

The overnight GFS model runs have "reacquired" the shift in the jet stream pattern that leads me to believe we may not be out of the woods just yet when it comes to snow this winter.

So far this winter the jet stream has lifted way north into Canada, or been stuck in a northwest flow over Minnesota. That pattern has brought us alternating record mild spells and infrequent bouts of light snow.

That may change next week.

The GFS is locking onto a southwest flow aloft in the upper atmosphere.

GFS: Major upper air storm over Minnesota Friday Feb 24th?

Two distinct waves of low pressure may ride the newly established southwest flow, bringing moisture and snow chances to Minnesota.

The first could roll through next Monday night & Tuesday. Early indications are this system could be light to moderate, and potential bring a few inches of snow to parts of central and southern Minnesota.

The second system may be bigger.

It's still a longgggggg way out, but The GFS is winding up what could potentially be the season's first "major winter storm" (did I just type that??) in Minnesota next Friday, February 24th.

According to the GFS, a strong upper level wave will deepen a surface low pressure storm over the Upper Midwest late next week. If the models pan out, that could produce the season's first heavy snow somewhere in or near Minnesota.

Model fantasy or major winter strom next Friday February 24th?

Today's GFS run suggest a powerful surface low pumping warm moisture rich Gulf of Mexico air into Minnesota next Thursday. Temps in the 40s could begin the storm as rain, then quickly change precip to heavy snow as the system races by.

The GFS precip numbers are insane at this point, suggesting around 2" precip totals. If most of that falls as snow, this would truly be a major winter storm.

**It's simply too early to know how much credibility to place in this solution. The models can (and probably will) shift the storm track south to Chicago or even further east in future model runs.**

But there are some signs that lead me to believe the GFS may be onto something.

1) The overall pattern shift looks reasonable

2) The models have hinted at this shift more than once in the past few days

3) We're due!

4) There are still a good 6 more weeks in the realistic "snow season" in Minnesota.

If the storm evolves late next week the GFS is advertising a "bomb" over the Upper Midwest. It's way too early to be talking inches, or even if it will happen, but if the GFS is right, somebody could see a huge pile of snow next Friday.

As we say in the weather biz....

Stay tuned!

PH

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Snow burst arrives, wind and cold to follow

Posted at 9:29 PM on December 31, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Radar snapshot from shortly after 9pm of the large flakes of snow being returned to the radar. Heaviest snow will move steadily through the metro between 945pm and midnight. Accumulations are expected to range from one to three inches. Snow tracks east and north through Wisconsin overnight.

Winds have increased to 30 mph in western Minnesota. Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected statewide by morning and throughout the day in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Travel safely tonight. Be cautious of other drivers.
CE

Snow likely southeast Minnesota Saturday

Posted at 6:37 AM on December 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Forecast models, Snow, Winter storms

The changes in the jet stream pattern appear to be on track to push moisture into southeast Minnesota later tonight through Satuday evening. As the moisture meets up with the colder temperatures, accumulating snow is likely to occur from Austin through Dexter, Wabasha and on into Black River Falls, Wisconsin. Snowfall could be four inches or more in the region.

At this time, the continuity of the model data is holding firm in keeping the Twin Cities metro on the fringe of the snow band. We'll track the developing precipitation on radar as the system advances toward Iowa and Minnesota later tonight.

Confidence has heightened on the potential for significant snowfall and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Minnesota.

Blue shading highlights the Winter Storm Watch for Satuday. See more details from the La Crosse NWS Office.

Here is NOAA's Environmental Prediction Center's probability of snowfall of greater than four inches.

The forecast map from the NAM for 6PM Saturday places the surface low pressure in a good spot for snow over southeast MInnesota. The pressure gradient is not strong, thus the winds should remain on the order of 10 to 15 mph.

In case you missed it, the temperature dropped to four degrees below zero last evening in Ely before recovering to near ten degrees this morning.

Statewide it looks to be a quiet day with seasonal temperatures. Traveling southeast on Saturday from the Twin Cities? Keep tuned for updated weather forecasts.
CE

CME Impact: Aurora Explodes in Scandinavia!

Posted at 9:45 PM on November 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Aurora, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Update 9:45pm:

Brilliant northern lights display in Scandinavia. Photos below courtesy of spaceweather.com.

Clearing skies mean auroras are still possible overnight in Minnesota.

Look north tonight. You might see the aurora.

NOAA says thee is a 58% chance of an aurora tonight.

A CME hit earth Monday, and it could trigger northern lights overnight.

According to NOAA northern lights may be visible as far south as Missouri. That's how far south the current "Auroral Oval" extends.

The best viewing is always away from city lights and with a good view to the north.

Check it out tonight!

Growing snow chance by Thursday?

I've said many times this month how closely I watch (babysit?) the forecast models in November. The models are notorious this time of year for playing catch up, as weather systems can rapidly form, deepen or change track on a dime.

It looks like Thursday may be one of those days.

Monday afternoon's NAM and GFS runs are hinting at a low pressure system rapidly spinning up in Kansas and tracking into Iowa Thursday. The system may contain enough cold air and moisture to generate snow somewhere in southern Minnesota Thursday, and maybe in the Twin Cities.

NAM model projecting snow into Minnesota Thursday!

It's too early to tell if this system will come together, but the 18Z (Noon) NAM run is already cranking out a potentially shovelable event Thursday and Thursday night.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Saturday Snow: Coating to 1" metro ; 2" to 5+" Alex, Brainerd & Duluth

Posted at 4:25 PM on November 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

Season's 1st snowfall for much of central Minnesota Saturday

0.8" NAM snowfall output for MSP Airport Saturday

1.3" GFS snowfall output for MSP Saturday (Friday AM run)

3.1" GFS snowfal output for MSP (Friday PM run)

Coating to 1" Weather Lab forecast snowfall for most of the metro Saturday & Saturday night (Best chance for 2" NW Metro)

50% chance of mixed precip or northerly track resulting in little/no accumulation in much of the metro

2" to 5"+ band of heaviest snow centered on a Morris-Alexandria-Brainerd-Mille Lacs-Duluth line

6"+ possible in eastern South Dakota and extreme western Minnesota near Browns Valley, Ortonville and Wheaton

Winter Weather Advosries posted for central Minnesota Saturday (north of the metro)

Winter Storm Warnings posted for eastern South Dakota and extreme western Minnesota (Ortonville, Browns Valley and Wheaton)

Snowy travel conditions Saturday on I-94 between St. Cloud & Fergus Falls and along I-35 between North Branch & Duluth!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

System on track:

We're still on track for Saturday snowfall, primarily north and west of the Twin Cities. Low pressure will track though Iowa and Wisconsin Saturday.

Timing:

A lead wave is casing some rain and snow in northern Minnesota Friday. The main system will increase snowfall Saturday from west to east.

Snow falling Friday in Bemidji on Paul Bunyan webcam

Temperature profile and precip type:

It looks cold enough for all snow north of a Redwood Falls to St. Cloud line Saturday. Precip may start as a mix in the metro Saturday, and then change to all snow as the low swings by later Saturday PM.

Snowfall accumulations:

Thankfully, the models have been pretty consistent in laying out the heaviest snowfall band through central Minnesota. It still looks like a good 2" to 5"+ swatch will lay down from eastern South Dakota though Browns Valley-Alex-Brainerd-Mille Lacs- to Duluth.

Alexandria Metorgram: Lines represent snowfall output for different modles. Friday PM NAM cranking out 4" to 7" potential!

Willmar and St. Cloud will be in the transition zone, with a likely total of between 1" and 3" by late Saturday night.

NAM lays out heaviest snow north of the metro.

As expected, it looks like the Twin Cities metro will be on the southern edge of this system. A rain-snow mix should develop Saturday PM. Temperatures should be just above freezing Saturday PM, meaning it will be tough to get any accumulation in most of the metro Saturday afternoon.

Rain should change to snow late Saturday PM and evening, resulting in a quick coating to 1" snowfall in much of the metro. The best chance for more than an inch will be in the northwest metro communities, where it's possible some 2" totals may occur.

What could possibly go wrong?

While some snow looks likely in the metro, there a a few factors that argue against accumulating snow.

1) The ground is still warm enough to melt the first flakes

2) Surface temps will be just above freezing Saturday PM.

3) Mixed rain may limit snowfall in the first half of the "event."

4) The system still shows signs of a shift north and a rapid cutoff in snowfall on the southern edge. This may limit accumulating snow in the metro.

5) The system is an "open wave" moving fairly quickly, this may also limit snowfal totals.

There is still a chance that most of the accumulating snow will miss the metro to the north!

This will be the first significant snowfall for many central Minnesota communities. Prepare for snowy travel conditions in these areas!

Overall this looks like a minor snowfall with little impact for the metro.

Stay tuned!

PH

Saturday Snow; Drought deepens; Metro sized Antarctic iceberg?

Posted at 9:02 AM on November 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

-6 degrees - in Hallock this morning!
(Season's first sub-zero temp in Minnesota)

16 degrees at MSP Airport - coldest since March 27th

4% - approximate indoor relative humidity in your home today

Growing chance of snow Saturday from the metro north

-6.69" rainfall deficit in the Twin Cities since August 1st!

99.52% of Minnesota in some stage of drought according to latest U.S. Drought Monitor

Metro sized iceberg ready to break off in Antarctica according to NASA

6 dead and counting in southeast tornado outbreak

Coldest so far...

We'll hear that line again many times over the next month or two. Today it was tiny Hallock in far northwest corner of Minnesota that recorded the first sub-zero temperature of the season in Minnesota. The mercury dipped to a frigid -6 at Hallock this morning!

The Twin Cities bottomed out at 16 degrees around 7 am today! That's the coldest since March 27th, nearly 8 months ago.

The Arctic Desert: Just add water!

Welcome to the Arctic Desert. This bone numbing air mass is also extremely dry. Dew points are in the single digits in much of Minnesota today.

As you take that dry air indoors and heat it up, relative humidity plunges inside your home. The approximate relative humidity if you heat your home to 65 degrees is around 4% today!

No wonder you're getting door knob zapped, and your skin is cracking like crazy.

It's a good time to check the indoor humidifier on your furnace or add water to the air in your home if you can.

Saturday Snow: Still on track

The early Thursday model runs are still on track for snow Saturday from the metro north.

The GFS, NAM and other models seem to mostly agree on tracking low pressure through Iowa to south of La Crosse Saturday. As the fast moving system zips by, it should lay down a few inches of snow.

Still to early to pinpoint totals, but what we can credibly say is the quick pace of the system will not give it time to gulp down hugs amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That should keep snowfall totals down into the manageable (but potentially shovelable) range. I don't see a Mega Storm with double digit snowfall totals this time.

At this time the most reliable advice is to plan on snow Saturday and Saturday evening from the metro north and west, with lesser amounts south and east.

NAM model hints at lighter snow totals near the metro, with heavier snow in northwest Wisconsin.

Stay tuned, there are still model snowfall differences for the metro and possible track changes. I'll put some numbers out tomorrow.

Drought Deepens

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a full 99.52% of Minnesota is now "abnormally dry" or in some stage of drought. Severe drought now extends form the southwest metro to the Iowa border, and from near Ely to the North Shore.

The metro is running nearly 7" behind on rainfall since August 1st, with deficits as high as 9" in southern Minnesota near Mankato, Waseca, Northfield, Faribault and Owatonna.

The average date of soil freeze is nearly here, and we desperately need significant rainfall to soak into the ground before the soil is locked up until spring. Unfortunately the weather maps look relatively dry the next two weeks.

It's crazy how we've transitioned from one of the most extreme severe weather barrages in Minnesota history last year to deep drought in just a few weeks!

Metro sized Antarctic Iceberg ready to break off?

This caught my eye.

According to NASA a huge 18 mile long crack on the edge of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is ready to break off and form a huge iceberg. The giant crack is anywhere from 260 feet to 820 feet wide.

NASA scientists discovered the gaping crack on a flyover in October.

The resulting iceberg may be about 300 square miles. That's about the size of the Twin Cities inside the 494 - 694 ring!

Death toll rises in southern severe outbreak

As many as 6 people are now dead in last night's tornado outbreak in the southeast.

Preliminary data from SPC indicates 12 tornado reports from Mississippi to North Carolina.

Stay tuned as new model runs come in today and tonight as we track the potential for the first real snow of the season for the metro and much of central Minnesota Saturday!

PH

Zig-Zag: Saturday snow threat shifts south toward Metro!

Posted at 4:47 PM on November 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

13 degrees - dew point in the Twin Cities Wednesday

45 degrees - dew point in Phoenix, AZ Wednesday in the Sonoran Desert
(More than twice the moisture in Phoenix vs. the Twin Cities)

60 - 90 miles - southward shift on storm track for Saturday's potential snow event

50% chance - Latest Weather Lab estimate for a plowable snow in Brainerd & Duluth Saturday

60% chance - Latest Weather Lab estimate for the first 1" snowfall at MSP Airport Saturday night

***

Growing metro snow chances Saturday?

This is why responsible meteorologists don't make specific snowfall predictions 3 days to a week in advance of a potential snowfall. It's also why we usually turn prematurely gray!

In the latest forecast model twist, the GFS and NAM models have locked on to a "southern solution" for our potential Saturday snow event. That shift would put the center of accumulating snow close to or right over the Twin Cities metro.

Here's the latest thinking from the weather lab on our growing snowfall chances this weekend.

The System:

The same "Colorado Low" I've been tracking all week. Low pressure spins up in Colorado Friday, and quickly races northeast on a fast moving jet stream toward the Upper Midwest Saturday.

Storm Track:

The latest model runs shift the storm track 60 to 90 miles south. If it verifies, that would bring the rain snow line south of the metro, meaning accumulating snow for the highly populated Twin Cities.

The latest model tracks bring the surface low through Iowa to south of La Crosse by late Saturday.

GFS model 6pm Saturday shows surface low in NE Iowa. Rain snow line (white) is south of the metro with snow in metro.

This is a far more favorable track for accumulating snow in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities.

Timing:

Rain and snow should develop Saturday and linger into Saturday night.

Temperature Profile:

The southward track shift brings the critical rain-snow line south to a Mankato-Twin Cities line around midday Saturday. As the system swings by, any rain or mixed precip would quickly change to snow Saturday afternoon in the metro.

Potential Accumulations?

With 48 to 60 hours until the core of event, It's still too early to pinpoint or issue credible specific snowfall forecasts.

The models have already shifted the track of Saturday's system a few times, and may do it yet again over the next 48 hours.

I could tell you there is going to be 6" of snow in Brainerd or Duluth, but it's just not credible to say that reliably yet. In fact the latest model runs are leaning lower than that total.

The best thinking/advice at this point is to say there is a growing chance of accumulating snow Saturday and Saturday night for the metro and south central Minnesota cities like Willmar, Mankato and St. Cloud. You may want to locate your shovel just in case!

GFS 120 hr snowfall shifts accumulating snow into metro!

One key observation of this system so far is that the models are consistent in keeping it as an "open wave." This means the system would move through faster than a "closed low" keeping potential snowfall totals down.

The Weather Lab philosophy is to issue specific snowfall forecasts about 24 hours in advance of anticipated snowfall. This is generally the peak window between letting the models reach peak accuracy, and giving listeners enough time to react accordingly.

Even with great advances in forecast models, forecasting snowfall is among the most difficult forecasts a meteorologist has to make. It's just not credible to throw out specific totals days or a week in advance. I wish it was different, but the state of the science of meteorology just isn't good enough to make consistently accurate snowfall forecasts days in advance. Anyone who tells you otherwise is blowing smoke.

Stay tuned as new model runs come in through Thursday & Friday. This system will probably throw a few new twists at us yet!

NOAA "Greehouse Gas Index" on the rise in 2010:

Measurements by NOAA confirm what we already know. We're putting more greenhouse gasses into our atmosphere every year.

According to the index, earth's greenhouse gasses have become 29% more efficient at warming the planet since 1990.

One interesting twist is that while CO2 continues a steady rise, atmospheric methane is rising after a decade of holding steady. Some climate scientists fear that Arctic warming is releasing more methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a very efficient greenhouse gas.

From NOAA:

•A continued steady increase in carbon dioxide: Global carbon dioxide levels rose to an average of 389 parts per million in 2010, compared with 386 ppm in 2009, and 354 in the index or comparison year of 1990. Before the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was about 280 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels swing up and down in natural seasonal cycles, but human activities - primarily the burning of coal, oil, and gas for transportation and power - have driven a consistent upward trend in concentration.

•A continued recent increase in methane: Methane levels rose in 2010 for the fourth consecutive year after remaining nearly constant for the preceding 10 years, up to 1799 parts per billion. Methane measured 1794 ppb in 2009, and 1714 ppb in 1990. Pound for pound, methane is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but there's less of it in the atmosphere.

PH

Cold now; Snow trends north Saturday; 50 by Thanksgiving?

Posted at 9:02 AM on November 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Severe weather, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

Today's World Sunlight Map shows daybreak in Minnesota.
(Click images to enlarge)

25 degrees in the metro this morning!

March 30th - last time it was this cold in Minnesota (Nearly 8 months ago)

19 degrees - forecast low in the metro Thursday morning!

70% chance - Weather Lab estimate for a "plowable" snow in Brainerd, Duluth & Iron Range by Saturday night

30% chance - Weather Lab estimate for season's first 1" snowfall at MSP Airport Saturday night

71% of peope first heard about storms in Tuscaloosa tornado outbreak on TV & radio

5% first heard of storm though "social media"

Novembrrrrrr!

It's finally here.

The coldest air mass in nearly 8 months has invaded Minnesota. This one feels different. Last night's bracing, window rattling northwest wind made you hunch over and step lively to get into the car.

The temps plunged to 25 this morning at MSP, with a few teens up north. Wind chills made it feel like teens and single digits in Minnesota this morning.

Yes, it's back!

Our wintery preview peaks tonight and early Thursday, as temps bottom out in the teens south with a few single digits north.

Temps will begin to moderate Thursday and should reach the 40s again (with a shot at 50 in the south) by Friday afternoon.

Saturday Snow: Trending north

The forecast models are fairly consistent with the track of our potential weekend winter storm. The latest runs seem to favor a surface low track near La Crosse by Saturday night.

If the GFS is right, the rain snow line looks to be setting up from near Redwood Falls to St. Cloud most of Saturday.

The temperatures profile for the storm appears to be warm enough for motly rain in the metro, changing to a little burst of wet snow as the storm slides by later Saturday night.

Moisture fields also show a rapid drop off in precip totals along the southern edge of the storm, with system precipitation totals as low as .25" in the metro.

The track, temp and moisture fields still suggest the heaviest "plowable" snow band setting up along an Alexandria-Brainerd-Iron Range-North Shore line. These areas could be in line for potentially 6" or more by early Sunday morning.

GFS snowfall map shows Saturday snow potential.

Tracks can still change...stay tuned on this one!

Mild Thanksgiving Day?

The early look at Thanksgiving trends mild. Assuming bare ground and some sun (which seems likely at this point) southerly winds should help boost temps to near 50 again in southern Minnesota.

"Old Media" still rules in severe weather outbreaks

Many people these days get a forecast or radar snapshot from their smart phone.

But in last year's devastating tornado outbreaks in Tuscaloosa and other markets, TV and radio were still king.

Research from Raycom Media (yes, a TV company) shows that as many as 71% of all people first heard about the coming storms from TV, with radio the second choice.

Only 5% of people first heard about the storms through Internet or mobile devices. Of those who did sample the Internet, 50% went to TV or radio websites for information.

"Chances are you know someone who has been affected by the floods, fires, tornadoes, earthquakes or hurricanes this past year. You may have even been impacted yourself. In Alabama, on April 27, a series of tornadoes destroyed more than 13,000 homes and killed 246 people in a matter of a few hours. The storms hit very close to home -- physically and emotionally -- with our Montgomery, Birmingham and Huntsville stations directly affected.

Although only a few (5%) of respondents reported going to the Internet for information tracking the storms, half of those were going to a station websites. Additionally, 5% were receiving information on mobile sites. Stations were active in distributing information via their own broadcasts, on the radio, on the Internet and even on mobile to keep their communities safe."

It seems people may still depend on the "live and local" severe weather information they get from local media most during severe weather outbreaks.

PH

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Canada snow cover increases: Is Minnesota next?

Posted at 8:33 AM on November 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

It's finally starting to look like November Canada. Snow cover has increased significantly in the past week.

Check out the North American snow cover images below. The first is from November 9th. The second is snow cover Monday.

You can see that snow has filled in and expanded south in Canada over the past few days. Also note the narrow band of snow from last week in Wisconsin & Iowa has melted away.

On track for Saturday snow: Plowable in Alexandria, Brainerd & Duluth?

It's November and we're used to seeing the first good dumping of snow in places like Fargo, Brainerd and Duluth this time of year.

That's why it was a little unusual when tiny Caledonia in far southeast Minnesota was among the first to get on the 2011 snowfall board when 3.1" fell last week.

Now it looks like the traditional snow "powers" in Minnesota like Brainerd and Duluth may get on the board by Saturday.

If the latest model runs are right, the snow could be heavy in central and northeast Minnesota, and the chances for accumulating snow in the metro are growing.

The System:

A classic "Colorado Low." Early model runs are developing low pressure in Colorado Friday. The so called "lee cyclogenesis" in the lee of the Rockies is a breeding ground for winter storms.

The Track:

Monday's GFS model runs have trended south with the track. The latest model runs track a deepening low pressure system from near Denver Friday, to Omaha early Saturday, to La Crosse by Saturday PM, then onto Green Bay.

GFS Model forecast with low pressure near Ames, IA at noon Saturday. Rain snow line near the northwest Twin Cities according to this possible scenario.

If this track verifies, it's an excellent track for accumulating (and potentially heavy!) snow in central and northeast Minnesota and possibly even the Twin Cities.

Storm Timing:

At this point the most likely window for rain and snow is Saturday and Saturday night.

Temperature Profile:

If the 18Z GFS run is to be believed at this point, the system would be cold enough for all snow north and west of a Redwood Falls-Northwest Metro-Hinckley line early Saturday. Rain would then quickly change to all snow as the system passes by later Saturday.

Possible Accumulations?

If the above forecast track pans out, the heaviest snow (and it could be a plowable pile) would fall from Fergus Falls, Alex, St. Cloud & Brainerd to the Iron Range Duluth and the North Shore.

GFS model lays down heavy snow band (6" to 8"+?) from Fergus Falls through Brainerd, the Iron Range to near Duluth Saturday.

****The models and storm track will likely change, but given the current track, everyone from Redwood Falls to Fargo, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Iron Range, Duluth, The North Shore, and possibly the even Twin Cities should be alert for the possibility of the season's first significant snowfall Saturday.****

As we say in the weather biz....stay tuned!

PH

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Storm slides east (again); Sky show this week!

Posted at 3:37 PM on November 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Our ever shifting 1st winter storm of 2011 in the Upper Midwest is shifting east again.

Each passing model run over the past 24 hours has shifted the storm further to the east. The result has been a changing landscape of NWS watches and advisories as they try to keep pace with the system.

Low pressure now expected to track east of Chicago. This is too far east for metro snow.

Here's the latest thinking from the La Crosse NWS.

The latest eastward shift would keep heavy snow mostly east of Winona and Rochester and Eau Claire. 1" to 2" still may fall in these areas.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

Unfortunately for much of parched Minnesota this will mean little if any measureable rain or snow. In fact, I don't expect a drop of rain or a flake of snow in the Twin Cities from this system.

Sky Show this week:

As skies begin to clear behind the system in much of Minnesota, look for a great sky show in the east in the evening and high in the sky later at night this week.

As the moon waxes toward full Thursday, it will snuggle up near bright Jupiter in the eastern evening sky.

Enjoy the show!

PH

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Shifty: Storm misses metro to the east; Snowy travel I-94 east!

Posted at 8:17 AM on November 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Fire up the snow blowers in La Crosse. You may be able to ignore your shovel in the Twin Cities a little while longer.

The overnight model runs continue the trend of shifting the low track and snow band to the east. All major models now agree that any accumulating snowfall will miss the Twin Cities to the east. Some wet snow is still likely in Rochester &, Eau Claire, with the heavier bands favoring La Crosse and Tomah to the east.

-Latest La Crosse radar loop

Meteogram for La Crosse, WI. Overnight models dropped snowfall totals by about 2" to 4"

Here's what I now expect for snowfall totals with the season's first winter storm:

Twin Cities 0"

La Crosse & Tomah: 3" to 6"+

If you are in those areas, or are planning travel east in I-94 toward Madison expect accumulating snow and slick roads later tonight and Wednesday! Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for these areas!

According to the storm's eastward shift, Twin Cities NWS has downgraded the western ties of counties (St. Croix. Pierce Goodhue, Steele etc.) from a winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory.

PH

****

The 0Z (evening) model runs are in, and the trend on the season's first significant winter storm is clear.

The storm track appears to be shifting back slightly east. The trend diminishes light snow chances in the Twin Cities, and shifts the heavy snow band slightly east.

Latest Track:

The latest tracks for the NAM and GFS model runs appear to take the surface low to neat Milwaukee by 9 am Wednesday.

Climatologically speaking that track is a little too far east for heavy snow in the metro. This is also a compact system, and will feature a sharp precip cutoff on the western edge.

The latest thinking from the weather lab is that the metro may escape with a near miss, and little or no rain or snow from this system. As you head east though, rain and snow will rapidly increase! Keep this in mind if you are planning travel east into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin Tuesday & Wednesday.

Snowfal Totals:

The latest models suggest that the heavy snow band should set up along a line from near Mason City and Decorah, IA to near Winona and La Crosse, to near Eau Claire and Black River Falls, WI.

Anywhere from 4" to 8"+ could fall along and near this line. There could be some isolated higher totals, but melting on warm ground will probably chew up the first 2 inches or so.

NAM model cranks out 10" for La Crosse! Some of that will melt on contact with warm ground.

Rochester, Red Wing and Menomonie look to be on the western edge of heavier snowfall. A good 2" to 4"+ could fall in these areas.

If the NAM and GFS verify, the rapid cutoff on the systems western edge would mean little or no snowfall west of a Mankato to Twin Cities line.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast Tuesday!

PH

Snow Update: Winter Storm Watch; Storm shifts slightly west

Posted at 2:48 PM on November 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Update 6pm:

No real changes in thinking at the weather lab just yet. Heavy, sloppy snow band still progged SE of the metro. Let's see what tonight's model run does!

PH

Update 3pm:

Today's model runs have shifted the storm track slightly to the west. This brings the potential for heavy snow one step closer to the metro, and may produce the season's first flakes in the eastern Twin Cities by Tuesday night.

Heavy snow looks likely in Rochester, Winona, Eau Claire and Menomonie, and maybe as close to the metro as Red Wing and Hastings. Winter Storm Watches have now been posted as close to the Twin Cities as St. Croix, Pierce and Goodhue Counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
224 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
ALBERT LEA TO RED WING TO CUMBERLAND.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIX OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ015-016-023>028-080430-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0006.111109T0300Z-111109T1800Z/
GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RED WING...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...
RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...
PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
224 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

NAM model paints heavy snow band in SE MN!

Stay tuned as we get new data in today & tonight, but plan on (potentially heavy) snow in SE MN & western Wisconsin Tuesday and Wednesday!

PH

****

Happy Winter Weather Awareness Week! Right on schedule, the season's first snow event is ready to plow into the Upper Midwest.

Looking at the maps it appears to be a near miss for the greater Twin Cities metro, with a rainy, snowy slushy direct hit for southeast Minnesota.

If you live in or are planning travel to Rochester, La Crosse, Winona, Preston, Caledonia, Harmony, or if you're planning travel down I-94 toward Eau Claire and Tomah get ready for a snowy smack Tuesday & Wednesday.

The System & Storm Track:

A fairly strong but compact low pressure system developing in the Southern Plains.
The low pressure center will track to near Chicago by Wednesday morning.

Timing:

It looks like a rain snow mix could break out as early as Tuesday in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Intensity of heavier rain and snow should peak late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the low tracks through Chicago.

Precip should end later Wednesday.

Temperature Profile:

The storm looks just cold enough to produce a rain snow mix changing to mostly wet heavy slushy snow. The ground is warm, so the first few inches could melt on contact depending on snowfall intensity.

Air temperatures are expected to be above freezing for most of the event. But temps could fall to near 32 early Wednesday morning during the heaviest snowfall intensity. That could help snowfall stick to the ground, trees etc.

Precip Totals & Snowfall Accumulations:

This looks like a wet but compact storm. If the track holds it would put the Twin Cities right on the edge with the heaviest totals over southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Overall liquid totals could be as high as 1" with this system in those areas.

Various forecast models are painting anywhere from 2" to as much as 8"+ of falling snow in a band from eastern Iowa through southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Meteogram paints some big (and scary) multi inch snowfall totals for Rocheter, MN by Wednesday!

Of course much of that will melt on contact with warm ground, but I do expect a few inches of slushy but potentially "shovelable" snow in Rochester, Winona, La Crosse, and along I-94 between Eau Claire and Tomah by Wednesday morning.

Enjoy our Monday sunshine, but get ready for a snowy sloppy blast south and east of the Twin Cities Tuesday & Wednesday!

PH

60 Saturday? Windy Deer Opener; Watching snow chances next week!

Posted at 2:10 PM on November 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Our first weekend in November looks mild, but windy!

Fire danger continues high into this weekend.

Low pressure winding up this weekend will track through the Red River Valley Saturday night and Sunday morning. That puts Minnesota on the mild (and windy) side of the system.

Southerly winds gusting over 35 mph and sunshine will help boost temps Saturday. 60s are quite possible in southern Minnesota, and metro bank thermometers may flash 60 degrees or better Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, winds will shift into the west, and somewhat cooler air will push in behind the system. Highs should make the 50s south and 40s northwest.

Still watching for snow chances next week!

The GFS continues to paint a strong low pressure system near Chicago by next Wednesday.

GFS model shows low pressure in Wisconsin and snow potential into southeast Minnesota Wednesday. This scenario would put potentially heavy snow near La Crosse, Eau Claire and Rochester

If the system curves far enough west, the back side could sideswipe southeast Minnesota (and possible the metro) with a brief snowy smack. It's still too early to pinpoint the exact storm track, so we'll have to keep an eye on this.

Any westward shift in the forecast track could put Minnesota in line for our first significant snow of the season.

Stay tuned!

PH

Update: GFS backs off snow chances next week?

Posted at 2:34 PM on November 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Update 2:35pm:

Okay the GFS 12Z (7am) run is tracking next weeks potential system a little further south & east, but still keeping enough cold air in for some snow. Here's the latest meteogram for MSP.

We're not out of the woods yet for snow, and I expect several more solutions in the coming days!

Stay tuned!

PH

***

You really have to watch the maps closely this time of year.

In an interesting shift overnight, the GFS model is painting a picture that may include accumulating snow for Minnesota next week. If early Thursday model runs verify, that snow may hit close to the Twin Cities metro area.

GFS model for next Wednesday: Low pressure in Wisconsin may be cold enough for snow in Minnesota. Colors indicate precip totals...around .85" liquid for MSP?

The models paint a picture with temperatures possibly marginally cold enough for snow in Minnesota. If the GFS is right, accumulating snow may hit close to home next week. Take this with a huge shaker of salt at this pioint, but the overnight GFS is painting some eye openeing numbers for snowfall at MSP next Wednesday!
(click to enlarge image)

GFS model paints (several inches of?) accumualting snow for MSP next Wednesday.

In fact the overnight GFS run has shifted an active storm track into Minnesota in the next 12 days. The model sets up a southwest flow with the jet stream dealing 4 separate low pressure systems from the southwest USA and tracks them toward the Midwest, including Minnesota.

The first system this weekend looks to track into northwest MNinnesota, keeping us on the mild side of the system. That could mean a shot at 60 degrees Saturday, and a realtively mild but windy deer opener in Minnesota this weekend.

The models hint at cold rain or wet snow possible

-November 15th

***It's too early to tell if this trend is credible yet. Keep in mind that a week in advance is too early to credibly forecast winter storms and snowfall totals with any credible accuracy.***

Also, the trend is based on just one GFS model run from overnight do far. Subsequent runs may shift the track and or temperature profile of incoming systems. They may miss Minnesota and or be warm enough for rain instead of snow.

One thing that seems credible in the model runs is the notion that an active upper air wave pattern may put Minnesota and the Upper Midwest into a more active storm track the next 10 days or so.

As we say in the weather biz....stay tuned!

PH

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Last Hurrah: Morning snow showers candy coating

Posted at 7:31 AM on April 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The surprising weather system which spared the metro snowfall accumulations on Tuesday has one more twist today.

As a sort of "last hurrah" the system is cranking out a last band of snow showers. With temperatures just above freezing, the snow band is enough to produce some grassy accumulations, with snow melting on pavement at the weather lab in the west metro.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM SNOW PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
04/20/2011 M2.2 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
04/20/2011 M2.0 INCH STEARNS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0643 AM SNOW KIMBALL 45.31N 94.30W
04/20/2011 M2.0 INCH STEARNS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

Expect the snow showers to taper from west to east today, and be a melted memory by later today.

PH

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Metro spared; 2" to 5" so far in SE MN

Posted at 3:20 PM on April 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 3:20pm:

Morning and midday radar trends (see below) turned out to be right on. As the system slides south, the northern edge of the snow shield is grazing the southeast metro, setting up in Dakaota County.

It looks like most of the metro will get skunked (spared?) with this system. Expect a slushy inch or so in the SE metro, especially Dakota county.

Staeady snow has been heavy at times in southeast Minnesota & northern Iowa. Here are some totals so far courtesy of the La Crosse NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA...

LOCATION SNOWFALL TIME LAT/LON

NORTHEAST IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON 8NW 3.2 0140 PM 43.34N 91.6W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
MONONA 2.0 0114 PM 43.05N 91.39W

...FLOYD COUNTY...
CHARLES CITY 3.0 0136 PM 43.07N 92.68W

...HOWARD COUNTY...
CRESCO 4.7 0136 PM 43.38N 92.12W

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER 0.7 0150 PM 44.03N 92.86W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
HARMONY 5.0 0119 PM 43.56N 92.01W
SPRING VALLEY 4.0 0113 PM 43.69N 92.39W
SPRING VALLEY 3E 3.4 1252 PM 43.68N 92.31W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
SPRING GROVE 4N 3.2 0130 PM 43.60N 91.64W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN 3.5 0105 PM 43.67N 92.98W

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
HOLMEN 2S 2.0 0119 PM 43.95N 91.26W
WEST SALEM 1.5 0115 PM 43.90N 91.1W

...VERNON COUNTY...
VIROQUA 7SE 4.0 1225 PM 43.51N 90.83W

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 AM SNOW HARMONY 43.56N 92.01W
04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1015 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AIRPORT 43.91N 92.50W
04/19/2011 E2.0 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1028 AM SNOW SPRING VALLEY 3E 43.68N 92.31W
04/19/2011 E2.4 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1057 AM SNOW FAYETTE 9W 42.84N 91.91W
04/19/2011 E2.5 INCH FAYETTE IA PUBLIC

1059 AM SNOW CALEDONIA 6S 43.54N 91.50W
04/19/2011 E4.7 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1100 AM SNOW AUSTIN 43.67N 92.98W
04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1104 AM SNOW MANTORVILLE 44.07N 92.76W
04/19/2011 E1.1 INCH DODGE MN PUBLIC

1105 AM SNOW DOUGLAS 2N 44.16N 92.57W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1107 AM SNOW WINONA 3S 43.99N 91.61W
04/19/2011 E1.2 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

1110 AM SNOW LYLE 2NE 43.54N 92.92W
04/19/2011 E3.8 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1112 AM SNOW RENO 3SW 43.53N 91.33W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1113 AM SNOW DORCHESTER 43.47N 91.52W
04/19/2011 E2.3 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1114 AM SNOW WAUKON 8NW 43.34N 91.60W
04/19/2011 E2.1 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1116 AM SNOW LANSING 4SE 43.32N 91.16W
04/19/2011 E3.2 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1117 AM SNOW NEW HAMPTON 43.06N 92.31W
04/19/2011 E3.0 INCH CHICKASAW IA PUBLIC

1120 AM SNOW ELKADER 6SSW 42.81N 91.43W
04/19/2011 E0.7 INCH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1124 AM SNOW ST ANSGAR 43.38N 92.92W
04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH MITCHELL IA PUBLIC

1127 AM SNOW LA CROSSE NWS 43.82N 91.19W
04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

1131 AM SNOW SOLDIERS GROVE 43.39N 90.77W
04/19/2011 E2.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1132 AM SNOW STEUBEN 2SW 43.15N 90.89W
04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1134 AM SNOW PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 43.03N 91.14W
04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1136 AM SNOW GILLINGHAM 43.43N 90.45W
04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH RICHLAND WI PUBLIC

1139 AM SNOW WESTBY 3ENE 43.66N 90.82W
04/19/2011 E1.6 INCH VERNON WI PUBLIC

Update 8:45am:

Sticking with the notion of 1" to 2" in the metro by morning for now...but I'm seeing radar trends (and dry air near the surface) that may indicate the system is sliding south.

There is still a chance most of this system will miss the metro to the south, but I still think the next wave of precip should overrun the metro through midday into the PM.

Heavy snow still a go for the I-90 corridor, where visibilities have been under 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy snow at times.

Stay tuned as precip fights to work north today...

-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 8:30am***

Our unseasonably late winter weather system is here.

A mixed bag of rain and snow is expanding slowly north today through southern Minnesota.

Rain/snow mix in southern MN Tuesday morning.

The system is "temperature critical" meaning a swing of just 2 or 3 degrees in any one spot will spell the difference between rain and snow today. Colder air and dark of night should mean a change to all snow by this evening as the system slides by to the south.

As we talked about yesterday, snowfall accumulations still appear to be heaviest in southeast MN & western WI. I expect a band of 3" to 6"+ along the I-90 corridor from Worthington to Albert Lea and Rochester to La Crosse....running up through Winona and Eau Claire.

Snowfall rates will be intense enough to overcome warm ground in these areas...and I expect some slick roadways today & tonight into early Wednesday.

Heavy snow band south.

The overnight model runs confirm yesterday's thinking form the weather lab, and it still appears we'll get more of a glancing blow from Willmar through the Twin Cities to Rice Lake, with 1" to 3" on most lawns by Wednesday morning.

It looks to me like most of the metro will see an inch or two on grassy areas early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of 3" in the south & east metro.

Poor model performance again?

This system is still not in the books and anything could happen, but it looks like several model runs got it wrong again. This has been a trend this spring with Upper Midwest weather systems. The GFS (and to some degree the NAM) has been all over the map, with wildly varying snowfall projections for the metro. I wonder if the numerical modelers in Washington D.C. are paying attention.

It takes a lot of forecasting savvy and guts to stare down computer output of up to a foot of snow, and forecast an inch or two. Quite frankly it's getting old and tiresome. The GFS in particular has had an abysmal record with snowfall projections for the Twin Cities this late winter & spring.

Expect some flakes to fly as we head through the day and tonight, mostly in the southern half of Minnesota.

PH

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Storm trends south: Metro forecast 1" to 3" Heavier S & E

Posted at 5:30 PM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The weather crystal ball is still "partly cloudy"...but we're beginning to see some discernable trends with Tuesday's weather system.

Let's run down the variables.

Storm track:

Today's model runs continue the trend of pushing the surface low track further south.

That means the axis for the heavy snow band shifts south too, and puts the Twin Cities into the more precarious lighter snow accumulation zone on the system's northwest fringes.

Timing & precip type:

It still looks as if precip will expand and move north Tuesday from along the I-90 corridor early toward the metro by midday.

The precip may be mixed during the daytime hours Tuesday, but should change to all snow by evening. Expect snow to end from west to east Wednesday morning, with a windy & colder day behind the system.

Snowfall rates:

Snowfall rates could be heavy at times Tuesday night, especially in southeast MN & western WI. I expect the potential for 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities (1/2S to 1/4S+) in moderate to heavy snow at times Tuesday night in these areas. There is the potential for "thundersnow."

The snowfall intensity should overcome warm pavement in these areas Tuesday night for slick road conditions.

Snow totals:

I still expect this to be a "good" strong snow event for southeast Minnesota. Right now I am leaning toward general accumulations of 3" to 6"+ (with a few 8"+ totals) along the I-90 corridor including Albert Lea, Austin, Rochester & La Crosse. The heavy snow band should also include Winona and Eau Claire and may stretch as far north as Owatonna & Red Wing.

In the metro I think the best snowfall range at this point is 1" to 3" by Wednesday morning. The best chance for higher end accumulations (3"+?) appear to be in the far south & east metro.

Springtime snow accumulations difficult

There are several factors in April that make accumulating (and forecasting!) snow more difficult than during the winter months.

Many springtime factors work against heavy snowfall accumulations.

-Time of day:

In the spring, solar intensity is about 5 times greater than during the winter months. Even with a thick overcast, the lowest mile of the atmosphere can see several degrees of warming in April.

This means that precip can stay rain or mixed during the daytime (and not accumulate), when it would be all snow compared with the same system in winter. That can reduce snowfall totals accordingly.

-Warm ground:

In winter with snowpack and pavement temps below freezing, every snowflake that falls accumulates. Not so in spring. Ground (surface) temps are in the 40s in most areas.

As a result, snowfall rates must be heavy for a prolonged period of hours to overcome surface melting from below.

-Air temperatures:

Temperatures with these systems often remain above freezing, even when it's snowing. This system is forecast to have metro temps above 36 degrees for most of the event, with only a few hours down to near 33.

That means melting is occurring from above as well as below for most of the event, reducing accumulations accordingly. It takes some really heavy snowfall rates to overcome above freezing temps below and above ground.

One scenario is that 3" to 4" of snow falls with this system in the metro...but only 1" to 2" can accumulate.

Bottom line:

Expect a rain/snow mix to spread gradually north Tuesday. Snow could become heavy Tuesday night. Highest accumulations will be in southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, where 3" to 6"+ may fall by Wednesday morning.

In the metro I expect most areas will see 1" to 3" on the ground by Wednesday morning, with some isolated 3"+ totals possible, especially south & east.

Let's see if tonight's model run continues the southward drift of the system...

PH

More snow likely, models vary; long track tornadoes

Posted at 10:12 AM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:20am:

Morning 12Z NAM model run comes in with about 4" to 5" snowfall for metro Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

Winter weather has overstayed its welcome this year, and it seems we're due for one more shot before spring finally takes hold.

The weather maps continue to look more like March this week. Another potent late winter storm (in springtime!) is heading for the upper Midwest Tuesday. There are still major model differences with this system, and another two "major" forecast model runs this morning and tonight may (hopefully) clarify the final outcome.

Winter storm watches have been posted for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story previews potential storm.

Based on what we know now, here's the rundown on snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The system:

Low pressure will track from Missouri to south of Chicago Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There are still model differences in the track, with the European model taking the system furthest south.

Precip timing & type:

A mixed bag of rain & snow should develop Tuesday in Iowa & the I-90 corridor early, and then slide north toward the Twin Cities during the afternoon.

GFS model sets up heavy precip band in SE Minnesota late Tuesday.

Precip will likely be mixed rain & snow Tuesday, changing to all snow Tuesday evening. Snowfall rates could increase and be heavy at times Tuesday night. Snow should gradually end Wednesday morning.

Snowfal Totals:

It does appear the system has the potential to produce 6"+ in the heaviest snow band, which most likely will set up south of the metro from Mankato to Albert Lea northeast to Eau Claire. Right now, cities & towns with the best chance for 6"+ appear to be Waseca, Owatonna, Rochester, Northfield, Red Wing & Winona.

NAM model: Heavy snow band south of metro.

Metro totals?

At this time the metro appears to be north of the heaviest snow band.

With major model differences in the storm track, I'm not ready to sign off on big accumulations for the Twin Cities just yet. We still have more than 24 hours and two major model runs before the snow flies. But it does appear that we will see some accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...inches to be determined tonight or early Tuesday morning.

A "plowable" event for the metro? A big maybe.

Forecast could change:

File this forecast under "changeable."

There is still a lot that could go wrong with the models this time of year...and especially this year. Model performance (especially the GFS) has been downright poor with the last few "storm" systems. Early snowfall forecasts have been all over the place again with this system...from over a foot of snow down to an inch.

Because of this I am going to wait a little longer than usual to issue a specific snowfall forecast for the metro. Suffice to say you should plan for some snow from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations will most likely favor grassy areas again. With warm pavement and air temps near or above freezing, there will need to be heavy snowfall rates for a longer period of time to see significant accumulations on roads...but that could happen Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There will be two major model updates in the next 24 hours beofre precip moves in.

Stay tuned...

Record southern tornado outbreak?

There's no doubt that the weekend tornado outbreak will go down as one of the biggest in U.S. history. The only question seems to be whether or not we will surpass the incredible number of 148 tornadoes in a 24 hour period form the April 3-4, 1974 "Super Outbreak."

248 tornadoes sweep the south in 3 days. (Map by Victor Gensini)

Here are some staggering numbers so far from last weekend's mega tornado outbreak.

248 - total number of preliminary tornado reports from Thursday-Saturday.

148 - Number of tornadoes in a 24 hour period in the 1974 "Super Outbreak."

45 - number of fatalities reported so far

63 miles - path length of Raleigh, NC tornado

65 miles - path length of the Fayetteville, NC tornado

3 miles - maximum path width of the Raleigh, NC tornado!

The numbers are staggering but don't even begin to tell the whole story. The size and intensity of these monster tornadoes over the weekend is frightening, even to trained meteroloigsts. The Raleigh tornado was 3 miles wide at the base! The storm chasers call these huge, violent tornadoes "wedges"...because they are so big they don't even look like tornadoes from a distance. You just see this big V-shaped cloud intersecting the ground.

Check out this remarkable time lapse video as the "rain wrapped" tornado moves into Raleigh, NC.

These big, violent EF3+ wedge tornadoes appear to have caused many of the tornado deaths this past weekend, especially in North Carolina.

Next severe outbreak Tuesday?

This overactive pattern looks like it will produce another severe weather outbreak Tuesday in the central plains on the southern end of our "winter storm."

SPC has already placed a moderate risk over the Ohio Valley.

Stay tuned...

PH

Weekend Forecast: Models pull back on storm potential

Posted at 5:08 PM on April 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

We're inside 48 hours to our next Minnesota weathermaker, and the trend is for a warmer, weaker weather system starting Saturday night.

In fact, it's starting to look like this weekend will feel more like spring in southern Minnesota than the possible wintery blast that some forecast models were advertising earlier this week!

The system:

Low pressure will wind up and track through southern Minnesota this weekend.

Timing:

It looks like an initial shot of mixed rain/snow will move north through Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model trends indicate a warmer system with a significant "dry slot."

Behind the wave of rain, the dry slot may advance into southern Minnesota...brining a break in the rain and maybe even some sun on Sunday!!

700 mb (10,000 foot level) chart shows potential "dry slot" in southern Minnesota Sunday.

It's starting to look like Sunday may even evolve into a nice spring-like day in southern Minnesota, including the metro. Temperatures may even surge back into the 50s.

50s pushing north Sunday?

In the north, a mixed band of rain, sleet & snow could linger Sunday. There may be some accumulations, but snowfall totals look much lower than what the models were advertising a day ago.

The best chance for accumulating snow appears to be along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

Heavy snow potential shifts north.

Totals:

System rainfall totals look much lighter than previously forecast. The latest NAM is printing out closer to .25" with the initial rain shot Saturday night into early Sunday morning for the metro. The GFS is around .44" total.

That's much lower than the 1"+ rainfall that the GFS was touting as late as yesterday!

Lighter rainfall totals?

Bottom line:

There is still the potential for heavy snow along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

This weekend may actually feel more like spring in southern Minnesota...with some sun and highs in the 50s both Saturday & Sunday.

The weather will turn windy and colder behind the storm Monday. There is the potential for some (light) "wrap around" snow on the system's back side Monday.

This looks like yet another case of the GFS model "over forecasting" a big, scary snowstorm for Minnesota.

Enjoy the weekend...and stay tuned for any changes!

PH

Tracking next weather maker

Posted at 6:41 AM on April 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

The moisture from yesterday's weak trough of low pressure tallied up to a quarter inch in spots. Temperatures remaining above the freezing point should mean wet roadways for the ost part. But watch for refreeze in favored low areas.

We are tracking the system for this weekend. And as Paul has pointed out the models have difficulty during this transition into early spring. We are still looking at the potential for accumulating snow in northern Minnesota.

NWS Chanhassen forecast graphic.

Most likely area to total snowfall of greater than eight inches as forecast by NOAA.

This next system promises to produce a wide swath of precipitation. Heavy rainfall and strong storms are likely in the Ohio Valley.

This is a graphic of the best consensus forecast from NOAA of liquid precipitation the next five days.

Rivers in central and southern Minnesota have mostly crested, but this next wave of precipitation wil prolong the high water levels. The drainage into the Red River Valley remains a work in progress.

A couple weeks ago I visited the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen. I chatted with one of the hydrologists about the disappearing snowpack and the lack of runoff moving down the curbsides. Together we surmised that perhaps as much as one inch of water equivalent from the seasonal snowfall sublimated directly into water vapor.

The quantative measurement of sublimation is not possible, so this is merely old school speculation. But it certainly could have contributed to keeping the river crests down. That along with the cooler than normal March temperatures was fortuitous for those concerned about flooding

In the Twin Cities this March had an average temperature of 29.4 degrees, compare that to the very mild March of 2010 when the average temperature was 41.0 degrees.

An usettled weather pattern looks to continue into next weekend.
CE

Weekend storm trends rainy? Floods, gravity waves, ISS

Posted at 6:18 PM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Gravity waves, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Snow, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are trending toward a "mostly rainy" scenario for the metro with our incoming Sunday storm.

In the meantime, there's a mix of weather ahead...including a nice day Saturday!

Metro & greater Minnesota forecast:

Overnight & early Friday: Mix of rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes early Friday. Low near 33.

Friday PM: Trending sunnier & milder. High near 43. Light west wind.

Saturday: Best day of the weekend! Mostly sunny & milder. High near 50.

Sunday: Rain likely, possible heavy at times. Could start as wet snow, changing to all rain metro. Heavy wet snow possible Brainerd & Duluth. High near 47 metro, upper 30s north.

Monday: Windy. Rain changes to snow. Significant snow totals possible, especially north. Temps upper 30s & lower 40s.

Sunday rain?

The latest model trends support the notion of mostly rain Sunday from the Twin Cities south. There is some indication that it may be cold enough at the onset of precip early Sunday to be all snow...and maybe produce an inch or two before enough mild air surges north ahead of the low to change precip to all rain.

GFS brings precip Sunday.

Both the GFS & Euro models have shifted milder air north, supporting a mostly rain solution for Sunday. The latest GFS run is even hinting that mild air could remain in place much of Monday, keeping precip mostly rain from the metro south until late in the event Monday night.

Big rain totals?

The GFS is hinting at ran totals over .50" and maybe 1" or higher. Keep in mind the GFS has (wildly) over forecast rain/snow totals in the past few storms.

NAM painting heavy rainfall totals Sunday.

Heavy snow north?

Early indications are the rain snow line could set up close to Brainerd or Duluth. This could mean some heavy snow in these areas if it stays all snow. There is the potential for an early April snowstorm up north. There is also the chance mild air could shift even further north.

Bottom line? It's still too early to make any high probability predictions for potential snowfall totals at this point. You'll see some scary (and probably overblown) numbers thrown out...but early spring storms have a way of changing at the last minute.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

Rivers falling for now:

Most area rivers continue to fall late this week and into the weekend. In some areas river levels will drop 2 to 3 feet from crests earlier this week. This is good news, since it will give rivers some "breathing room" before the next wave of rain can potentially raise river levels again next week.

The "Renegade" at Valleyfair in Shakopee soaks in floodwaters.

You can get all the latest AHPS river info here, but some creative folks at MPR have also put together an excellent "flood aggregator" blog called "Floods '11" here. Check out the blog for some of the latest news related flood items & photos.

Anatomy of a "gravity wave"

We're learning more about mysterious "gravity waves" which are sometimes observed with severe weather outbreaks. These powerful, rolling atmospheric waves seem to supercharge thunderstorm clusters. Details from the UW Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog:

Mid-tropospheric gravity waves upwind of intense convection:

"McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 µm water vapor channel data (above; click image to play animation) showed a well-defined warm/dry "arc" feature (denoted by the brighter yellow color enhancement) just upwind of a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that was moving eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent Gulf Coast states on 30 March 2011. The MCS eventually produced a number of reports of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across northern Florida. Also note that a subtle signature of what appeared to be gravity waves could be seen within portions of this warm/dry arc feature (especially in the southern portion, over the Gulf of Mexico).

All of the above satellite evidence suggests that the gravity waves seen on the water vapor imagery were not surface-based, but were located at a higher altitude within the middle troposphere."

ISS sightings ahead:

Skies may be cloudy Friday morning, but Saturday should provide a good opportunity to see the brightly illuminated International Space Station (ISS).

ISS sightings for Minneapolis.

You can enter your zip code to get precise sighting times here.

Mysteries of thundersnow?

I don't know if we'll see or hear any "thundersnow" with the system over the weekend, but NASA has some interesting info on a "lucky" encounter with thundersnow here.

TWC's Jim Cantore's "thundersnow moment."

"Walt Petersen and Kevin Knupp have traveled far and wide to study winter storms. They never dreamed that the most extraordinary one they'd see - featuring freakish thundersnow, a 50-mile long lightning bolt, and almost a dozen gravity waves -- would erupt in their own back yards. The storm hit Huntsville, Alabama, on the evening of January 9th.

Eyewitness Steve Coulter described the night's events: "It was as if a wizard was hurling lightning behind a huge white curtain. The flashes, muted inside thick, low hanging clouds, glowed purplish blue, like light through a prism. And then the thunder rumbled deep and low. This was one of the most beautiful things I've ever experienced.'"

PH

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Light rain/snow today; Bigger storm Sunday/Monday!

Posted at 9:17 AM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Two distinct weathermakers are on the map and taking aim at Minnesota.

The first one is already here, with a mixed bag of generally light rain and snow showers. A weak low pressure system is squeezing out lighter precip amounts today/tonight.

Low pressure "trof" moving east today. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like precip totals will be around or under .25" by Friday in most areas.

Morning Twin Cities radar loop shows spotty rian snow mix.

-Current Twin Cities radar loop here.

With temperatures hovering around or above freezing from the ground to around 5,000 feet above ground today, expect a rain snow mix that could trend toward all snow tonight. With temps above freezing at ground level, it will be difficult for any snow that does fall to accumulate much more than a slushy coating.

NAM snowfall: Slushy coating north?

Friday & Saturday: Sun returns

Look for the sun to make a return by Friday afternoon in most areas. Saturday looks downright nice, with plenty of sun and highs pushing 50 Saturday afternoon.

Potent storm Sunday & Monday:

The next "big" weathermaker moves into the Upper Midwest Sunday.

A strong hybrid late winter-early spring low pressure system will track eastward out of the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest Sunday. It appears a band of precip will push north into SW Minnesota Sunday morning, and overrun the state Sunday.

GFS places surface low in Kansas and pushes heavy precip into Minnesota Sunday.

As I sift through model data this morning to try and see what's credible, It looks to this forecaster right now like enough mild air will push north that the system will produce mostly rain from the metro south Sunday. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times...and there are indications that rainfall totals could exceed .50" to 1+" in some areas of southern Minnesota Sunday.

Over an inch of liquid precip (some as snow) Sunday & Monday?

It appears cold enough for a transition to mostly snow just north of the metro and toward Fargo, Brainerd & Duluth Sunday. The snow could be heavy in central & northern Minnesota. At this time the heavy snow axis seems to be focused on and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line.

The GFS is cranking out some impressive (downright scary?) early snowfall numbers for Brainerd (20.2") & Duluth (19.6").

GFS: Some big numbers for Brainerd!

As the system moves by and cold air is drawn south Monday, it appears rain will change to snow statewide, including the greater Twin Cities metro. The snow could be heavy, and wind driven Monday.

Changeable forecast?

The Sunday-Monday system looks good (or bad) on paper at this point. I'd say there is a better than 50% chance we're going to get a potent storm. But keep in mind that the error margin 4 to5 days out for Midwest surface lows can often exceed the width of the heavy snow band.

Translation? A shift of 50 to 100 miles in the track of the surface low track or thermal profile of the storm can change rain to snow...and push the potential heavy snow band north or south in a hurry.

**There is some model data suggesting that the metro could fall within the heavy snow band Sunday & Monday. At this time, it is just too early to say with any credibility exactly where the heavy snow will fall, and who will get mostly rain Sunday.**

The storm system is well out over the north Pacific today, and will not enter the USA upper air (weather baloon) grid until Saturday. When it moves over the USA, the denser observation newtork may get a better handle on track & thermal profile.

Bottom line: There is the potential for a major hybrid winter/spring storm Sunday & Monday in the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota & Wisconsin. Plan accordingly.

Stay tuned for changes and updates as we get new model runs in the next few days.

PH

Storm eases; 5th snowiest winter; rivers rise

Posted at 5:25 PM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Well that was interesting.

Our gnarly hybrid winter-spring storm has wound down, but not before blasting much of the Upper Midwest with a stark reminder that it is still March in Minnesota.

Snowiest winter in 27 years!

With 4.4" of fresh snow at MSP Airport this is now the 5th snowiest winter on record at MSP with 84.6" this season.

Here's the text from Twin Cities NWS:

"Another 4.4 inches of snow fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport March 22nd into the 23rd (as of 1:00pm on the 23rd), pushing the seasonal snowfall total past the 1991-1992 seasonal total and into 5th place on the all time list. The 2010-2011 snow season is now the snowiest season since the record was set during the 1983-1984 season. The current seasonal snowfall total stands at 84.6 inches. The average seasonal snowfall in the Twin Cities is 55.9 inches."

Snowfall totals:

In general snowfall totals ranged from 2.5" (Burnsville) to 6.5" (Coon Rapids) across the metro.

Snowfall totals between 6" and 12" are common through much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Here are some updated snowfall totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 315 PM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR
EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.20 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0800 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
9.00 3 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 1204 PM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1210 PM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
8.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.50 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 1140 AM
7.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0100 PM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 4 NW ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
6.50 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 1040 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 2 WSW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
6.00 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0600 AM
5.50 DAYTON MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
5.50 4 E ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0700 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.20 FOREST LAKE 5NE MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
5.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1207 PM
5.10 5 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1057 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
4.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0700 AM
4.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
4.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0100 PM
4.40 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0900 AM
4.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1120 AM
4.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
4.00 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.50 1 E ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.40 1 WNW ROCKFORD MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.00 2 SSE MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0830 AM
3.00 MINNEAPOLIS LWR ST ANTH MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
2.80 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1050 AM
2.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.50 2 NW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM

The heaviest snow band set up as expected between the metro and Duluth, but did shift slightly south at the last minute.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
415 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY
------ ----------------------- -- --------------
14.50 SARONA WI WASHBURN
14.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER
11.50 WINTER WI SAWYER
11.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.80 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.50 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER
9.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE
8.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS
8.00 WEBSTER WI BURNETT
7.50 BREEZY POINT MN CROW WING
7.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON
6.80 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING
5.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS
1.50 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON
0.40 DULUTH AIRPORT MN ST LOUIS

The late southward shift in the snowfall caused the snow to mostly miss Duluth, but not the wind. Check out some of the peak wind gusts from in and around the "Windy Twin Ports."

PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR

56 MPH DULUTH AIRPORT
51 MPH CLOQUET AIRPORT
47 MPH SUPERIOR AIRPORT
70 MPH BLATNIK BRIDGE/MNDOT

Forecast: Cold but quiet

A sprawling Canadian high pressure system will set up over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest for most of the next week. This will keep us mostly dry...but temps will be running 10+ degrees below average.

Warm up 8-9 days away?

There are signs of a major warm up by late next week. Temps could return to the 50s and maybe push 60 by the weekend of April 2-3.

Rivers rise:

Rivers are still on the rise, with many crests expected this weekend or next week.

-Latest flood forecasts here.

Welcome to Minnesota. Floods, heavy rain, lightning, thunder, sleet, heavy snow, and 70 mph winds...and that's just in one day!

PH

Storm continues: 3" to 6"+ Metro; heavier snow north

Posted at 9:25 AM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:45am:

5" snowfall now at Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven in west metro. Snow beginning to taper in intensity a bit in much of the metro.

Expect another 1" to 2" before snow fades later today.

Here are some updated snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

..SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 10 AM THIS MORNING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
5.00 5 NE FOREST WI ST. CROIX 0428 AM
4.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0655 AM
4.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0407 AM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.30 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
2.20 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0839 AM
2.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0825 AM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0655 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
927 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0830 AM
12.00 STONE LAKE WI WASHBURN 0746 AM
10.00 PINE CENTER MN CROW WING 0713 AM
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 0600 AM
STILL SNOWING
8.80 5 S BRUNO MN PINE 0900 AM
8.70 7 NW BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0924 AM
8.50 PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0842 AM
8.50 3 N PINE CITY MN PINE 0810 AM
8.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0701 AM
8.20 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0646 AM
8.00 5 E LEADER MN CASS 0848 AM
8.00 4 E HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0804 AM
8.00 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0804 AM
CORRECTION FROM EARLY REPORT.
8.00 SPOONER WI WASHBURN 0400 AM
REPORT FROM WASHBURN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
7.80 GULL LAKE MN CASS 0924 AM
7.50 WEBB LAKE WI BURNETT 0842 AM
7.50 FORT RIPLEY MN CROW WING 0823 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR. STILL SNOWING.
7.20 CLAM LAKE WI ASHLAND 0739 AM
7.00 1 E FINLAYSON MN PINE 0919 AM
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0608 AM
6.00 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0646 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0526 AM
MEASURED BY A SAWYER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
EMPLOYEE FROM HOME
3.50 3 NE NISSWA MN CROW WING 0836 AM
3.50 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0805 AM
3.50 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 0800 AM
3.00 WRENSHALL MN CARLTON 0844 AM
2.30 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0805 AM
2.00 MERCER WI IRON 0747 AM
1.50 SOUTH RANGE WI DOUGLAS 0828 AM
0.30 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0828 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1031 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW LAKE ITASCA 47.25N 95.21W
03/23/2011 M6.0 INCH CLEARWATER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW VERGAS 46.66N 95.80W
03/23/2011 M7.0 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW HILLSBORO 47.40N 97.06W
03/23/2011 M16.0 INCH TRAILL ND PUBLIC

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 NE HATTON 47.70N 97.37W
03/23/2011 M12.0 INCH GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

Update 9:30am:

Band of heavy snow now rotating into south metro. 2" in past 90 minutes at Weather Lab in Deephaven with moderate to heavy snow. Big fat high quality "stellar dendrites" now coming down and piling up fast.

Weather Lab total now 4" in Deephaven.

Did I put the deck dining table out too soon this year?

"Bosco the weather cat" checks out the snow.

**original post 8:36am**

You gotta hand it to our winter-spring hybrid storm, it's got staying power.

(Click to enlarge)

Snowfall continues in most on central and southern Minnesota today, with a little ice along the I-90 corridor.

Another day in weather paradise. Car off ramp on I-35 at I-494

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT Traffic cams & info

Here are some snowfall totals as of this morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW FALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...RECEIVED SINCE 430 AM THIS MORNING...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM

10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM

10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM

9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM

9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM

8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM

8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM

8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM

7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM

7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM

7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM

6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM

6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM

5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM

5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM

5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM

5.00 5 NE FOREST WI ST. CROIX 0428 AM

4.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0655 AM

4.50 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0654 AM

4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM

4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM

4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM

3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM

3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM

3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM

3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0527 AM

2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM

2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM

2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM

2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0655 AM

2.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM

1.80 CHASKA MN CARVER 0715 AM

1.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0655 AM

1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0700 AM

1.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0722 AM

0.80 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0806 AM

0.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0527 AM

A late shift with this system brought the heavier snow band south a little sooner into parts of the metro, thus raising forecast snowfall totals for the Twin Cities into the 3" to 6"+ range.

The heavy snow band is still laying out as expected, generally along and north of the I-94 corridor from Fargo to Alex, Brainerd. Little Falls, St. Cloud, Milaca, and Hinckley to Rice Lake. 6" to 12"+ can be expected in these areas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
816 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 STONE LAKE WI WASHBURN 0746 AM
10.00 PINE CENTER MN CROW WING 0713 AM
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 0600 AM
STILL SNOWING
8.50 3 N PINE CITY MN PINE 0810 AM
8.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0701 AM
8.20 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0646 AM
8.00 4 E HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0804 AM
8.00 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0804 AM
CORRECTION FROM EARLY REPORT.
8.00 SPOONER WI WASHBURN 0400 AM
REPORT FROM WASHBURN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
7.20 CLAM LAKE WI ASHLAND 0739 AM
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0608 AM
6.00 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0646 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0526 AM
MEASURED BY A SAWYER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
EMPLOYEE FROM HOME
3.50 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0805 AM
3.50 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 0800 AM
2.30 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0805 AM
2.00 MERCER WI IRON 0747 AM

-Latest snowfall totals from Duluth NWS

Expect snowfall of varying intensity through this afternoon before the storm begins to wind down by tonight.

Travel conditions will remain difficult through today and into tonight.

Poor model performance?

Overall the forecast models have handled this storm relatively well, with one exception. The models have had trouble with potential snowfall totals for the Twin Cities.

Here's what the models got right:

-The timing and widespread nature of rainfall Tuesday.
-The notion of heavy rainfall 1"+ totals Tuesday.
-The placement of the heaviest snow band in between the metro and Duluth.
-The snow totals of 6" to 12"+ within the heavy snow band.

The models had trouble with the changeover from rain to snow in the metro, and cranked out some (hopefully!) wildly high snowfall totals for MSP Airport.

The GFS was cranking out 20.3" of snowfall at MSP Tuesday PM. That number came down to 5.6" overnight.

The NAM was cranking out 14.4" Tuesday night.

Numerical forecast models often have trouble with storms during seasonal transitions. This was a true "seat of the pants" forecast for the metro.

Quiet weather ahead:

After the siege of heavy rainfall and snow this week, it looks like we may catch a break Thursday and into the weekend.

A large area of chilly Canadian high pressure will likely steer a weekend storm south of Minnesota, and keep us dry for the most part. To be watched.

Flood updates:

-Lest we take our eye off the ball for too long, here are the latest flood updates.

Warm up ahead??

Next week looks cool... and more importantly mostly dry at this point. There are signs that a major warm up could move in late next week, and into the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. It looks like 50s could return in about 10 days.

Spring may be around the corner...and down the street just a little bit.

Stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

Winter storm warning now includes metro: 3" to 6"+?

Posted at 11:10 PM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

**A late southward shift in our powerful hybrid winter-spring storm has placed the Twin Cities metro in the potential heavy snow band overnight and Wednesday.

**I now expect the heavy snow band to shift south, and include much of the Twin Cities metro. Winter storm warnings have now been expanded to include the Twin Cities metro.

Winter storm warnings now include metro. (Click to enlarge)

**Expect wind driven heavy snowfall to commence after midnight, and continue through noon Wednesday.

**Travel will become increasingly difficult overnight, and I expect a major rush hour nightmare Wednesday morning with heavy snowfall in progress.

**The latest models runs tonight are indicating there could be 12 to 15 hours of snow between midnight and 3pm Wednesday.

**The 0Z (Tuesday evening) model runs are projecting some incredible snowfall totals now fo the metro. The NAM is cranking out 14.6" for MSP Airport. The GFS as much as 20". While these numbers may be too high, I now believe there is a decent chance of 3" to 6+" of snowfall in the Twin Cites by late Wednesday, with the highest totals in the north metro.

** There is one potential limiting factor to snowfall totals. A dry slot is working through the south metro on radar. If it lingers in place snowfall totals may be reduced. If the snow shifts south as expected, snowfall totals will increase.

NAM: Heavy snow band shifts south to include Twin Cities.

Potential for 10" in metro?? (Click to enlarge)

Bottom line: This is a drastic change and southward shift in the heavy snow band. Be prepared for a major winter storm in the metro overnight through most of Wednesday.

Expect heavy snow, northeast winds with blowing snow, and possible thundersnow. There may be a big snowfall gradient from south (lighter) to north (heavier) across the metro. Latest indications are a range of 3" to 6"+ may fall from south to north across the metro by Wednesday evening.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest hourly observations

I'll have the latest updates on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer starting at 7:45am.

Tornadoes slam Iowa:

As many as 15 tornadoes may have touched down in Iowa Tuesday on the warmer (and more violent) side of this storm.

Here are the preliminary reports form SPC.

PH

Duluth: Blizzard... Metro: Rain & thunder, then snow

Posted at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 12:15 am:

Radars show bands of showers and embedded T-Storms moving northeast through southern Minnesota. Expect heavy rain, lightning and thunder, and possible hail as the storms move through early this Tuesday morning.

The late model runs are cranking out an incredible 1.84" liquid precip for the Twin Cities with this storm. Most will fall as rain Tuesday, but indications are about .41" could fall as wet snow Wednesday. That could translate into 2" to 4" of wet slushy snow by late Wednesday in the metro.

Late night NAM Cobb method yields 2" to 4" snowfall totals for Metro Wednesday. (Click to enlarge)

Stay tuned.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 5:35pm Monday***

After a pretty quiet month, the March Lion is set to roar.

A hybrid winter/spring storm looks like it will roar the loudest from North Dakota through northern and central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. A combination of heavy snow and wind Tuesday night and Wednesday will slam cities and towns including Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, Brainerd, Duluth, Hinckley, Hayward and Rice Lake.

Winter storm warnings are flying for North Dakota, central and northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

The system:

Low pressure is spinning out of the Rockies headed for the Upper Midwest Tuesday. This a good track to bring heavy precip to Minnesota.

Low track across Iowa. (Click to enlarge all graphics)

Thermal profile:

The storm is forecast to track east through Iowa. Milder air with this hybrid winter/spring system will mean the initial waves of precip Tuesday will be mostly rain. As colder air filters in Tuesday night & Wednesday, precip will change over to snow from north to south.

It looks like most of the precip will fall as snow in Brainerd and Duluth (mixing with rain to start), and most will fall as rain ending with some wet snow in the metro.

Timing:

Expect waves of rain to move in after midnight into Tuesday morning and continue on and off as the changeover to snow occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday from north to south.

Thunder?

There could be enough rising air, what meteorologists like to call "upward vertical velocity"... to produce a few thunderstorms Tuesday, especially afternoon & evening.

Severe risk?

SPC has included southwest Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather. This is the first time this year any part of Minnesota has been included in a severe risk area.

Welcome to spring.

Rain & Snowfall totals:

The system should deliver widespread rain to southern Minnesota and heavy snow up north.

The NAM model is cranking out as much as 1'+ for the metro and points north.

The band of heaviest snow appears to be setting up from Fargo through Brainerd to Duluth. It looks like 6" to 12" of wet wind driven snow may fall in the heavy snow band. Areas around Duluth could see 12"+!

At this point, I think 1" to 3" of wet slushy snow could fall in the metro Wednesday. The best chance fo 3" will be in the norhtern suburbs.

Flood impacts:

An inch or more of rainfall will have an impact on rising rivers. NWS Hydrology has factored this in to the latest set of river forecasts Monday, and the latest forecasts are here.

Overall most river forecasts were raised between 1 and 2 feet later this week into the weekend.

Stay tuned as our next storm moves into Minnesota.

PH

Snow fades today, 47 by Friday?

Posted at 8:32 AM on March 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Our Wednesday snow system is behaving about as expected so far. Snow will gradually taper off in the metro today, but linger into this evening in SE MN & Wisconsin.

Twin Cities NWS:

-Latest individual snowfall reports here.
-Latest snowfall summaries here.

La Crosse NWS: (Wisconsin & southeast Minnesota)

-Latest individual snowfall reports here.
-Latest snowfall summaries here.

Here are some snowfall totals so far as of this morning.

Twin Cities area:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

0824 AM SNOW BURNSVILLE 44.76N 93.28W
03/09/2011 M1.7 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 W PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.47W
03/09/2011 M1.5 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW HAMBURG 44.73N 93.96W
03/09/2011 M1.2 INCH CARVER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0742 AM SNOW INVER GROVE HEIGHTS 44.83N 93.06W
03/09/2011 M1.4 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0717 AM SNOW BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
03/09/2011 M1.2 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

As expected, snowfall totals are heavier in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

0700 AM SNOW SW ELLENDALE 43.87N 93.30W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W
03/09/2011 M3.0 INCH MARTIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0643 AM SNOW OSAGE 43.29N 92.81W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH MITCHELL IA PUBLIC

0711 AM SNOW CALEDONIA 43.63N 91.50W
03/09/2011 M4.0 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

0711 AM SNOW AUSTIN KAAL TV 43.68N 92.95W
03/09/2011 M3.1 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AP 2NE 43.93N 92.48W
03/09/2011 M2.6 INCH OLMSTED MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW LA CROSSE WFO 43.82N 91.19W
03/09/2011 M5.2 INCH LA CROSSE WI CO-OP OBSERVER

Radar trends show snow gradually tapering as drier air works in behind the low pressure system as it moves east today. Expect light snow to gradually fade as we head through the afternoon.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Warm up on the way!

The upper air pattern is changing for the milder. Fast moving systems now spinning off the Pacific Ocean will sail though the Upper Midwest over the next week. That means the systems will pull up warmer (did I just actually type the word "warmer?!") air ahead of them as they move in...and cooler air behind.

The first such system is headed this way Friday. Look for a sunny and milder day Thursday as high pressure builds in, then southerly winds will kick in Friday and draw milder air north into Minnesota.

If we get enough sun...and it looks like we will, temperatures could soar into the mid-upper 40s Friday!

Cooler air and some snow may greet us on the system's back side Saturday, but the warm up will really get going next week.

I expect a few days in the 40s and a shot at 50s next week. It looks like we will really start melting some serious snow around here in the next 7 to 10 days.

Get ready for a taste of spring!

PH

Comment on this post

Snow moves in: Spring pattern & 50s next week?

Posted at 11:22 PM on March 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 11:30pm:

Snowfall has reached the southern metro as of 11pm Tuesday night. Many sites in southern Minnesota are reporting snow as the system moves closer.

LAKEVILLE LGT SNOW 30 27 86 E9 30.12F WCI 22

Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PIPESTONE MIX PCPN 28 28 100 E6 30.06S WCI 22
WINDOM LGT SNOW 30 30 100 NE8 30.07S WCI 23
JACKSON LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE13 30.07S VSB 1 WCI 22
TRACY LGT SNOW 22 20 92 NW7 30.10S WCI 14
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 28 27 95 NE5 30.08F VSB 3/4 WCI 23

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
NEW ULM LGT SNOW 32 28 86 E3 30.11S
ST JAMES LGT SNOW 32 28 86 NE8 30.09S WCI 25
FARIBAULT LGT SNOW 30 28 93 NE8 30.11S WCI 23
OWATONNA LGT SNOW 30 28 93 E12 30.08F WCI 21
ALBERT LEA LGT SNOW 32 32 100 NE9 30.02F WCI 24

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER LGT SNOW 32 30 92 NE14 30.08F FOG WCI 22
RED WING LGT SNOW 34 28 80 E9 30.13F WCI 26
STANTON LGT SNOW 33 29 86 NE9 30.10F WCI 25
DODGE CENTER LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E13 30.07F WCI 22
WINONA LGT SNOW 34 32 93 CALM 30.13F
AUSTIN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE13G18 30.04F WCI 22
PRESTON LGT SNOW 33 32 95 E9 30.07F WCI 26

Radar continues to show the northern edge of the snow working slowly north. The big question is how far north will the snow reach? It looks like the northern edge will be in or near the metro area early Wednesday morning, with snow at least a factor for the morning commute.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The evening model runs support my thinking that there will be a big "snowfall gradient" across the metro from NW to SE. The GFS (700 millibar low center track) seems to support keeping snowfall going in most of the metro through midday Wednesday.

Snowfall potential:

It also looks like snow will last much longer in the SE metro communities of Lakeville and Hastings than in the northwest metro. (Elk River, Anoka)

At this point I still see a forecast of 1" (NW) to 4" (SE) for the metro as a good overall range. Not a blockbuster storm by any means, but it should be enough to create some slick spots and gum up AM rush Wednesday.

Heavy snow band: 4" to 6"+ (with isolated 8" totals)

This includes Mason City, Austin, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Decorah, La Crosse, Tomah, and Eau Claire.

Plan on heavier snowfall rates and slick travel along I-35 south, Highways 52 & 61 southeast, and I-94 into Wisconsin.

Next update on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer at about 7:45am.

Nighty night!

PH

Update 8:15pm:

Snow is busting out in southern Minnesota and moving north toward the metro.

Here are some Minnesota locations reporting snow & mixed precip at 8pm:

Southwest Minnesota

CANBY LGT SNOW 20 19 93 NW6 30.15S WCI 13
PIPESTONE MIX PCPN 28 27 93 E8 30.07F WCI 20
WINDOM LGT SNOW 30 30 100 NE8 30.09S WCI 23
JACKSON LGT SNOW 32 30 93 NE10 30.08F VSB 1 WCI 24
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 30 28 93 NE8 30.10F WCI 22

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ST JAMES LGT SNOW 32 28 86 NE3 30.11F
OWATONNA FLURRIES 32 28 86 NE10 30.10F WCI 24
WASECA CLOUDY 32 28 86 NE12 30.12F WCI 23
ALBERT LEA LGT SNOW 32 32 100 E9 30.05S WCI 24

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ROCHESTER LGT SNOW 34 28 80 NE12 30.10F FOG WCI 25
DODGE CENTER LGT SNOW 34 30 86 E13 30.10S WCI 25
AUSTIN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E12 30.07S WCI 23
PRESTON LGT SNOW 33 32 94 E9 30.09S WCI 26

Radar is lighting up with snow in southern Minnesota.

Leading edge of snow moving north Tuesday evening.

Expect snowfall to move north along I-35 and reach the south metro by around 10pm.

PH

****Original post 3:48pm*****

Our (too?) long advertised Wednesday snowmaker is hanging by a thread.

The low pressure system is dropping rain and snow on much of the Midwest will steer northeast overnight. The system's southerly track will mean a glancing blow for most of Minnesota, and there are some late indications that the metro will be right on the edge of accumulating snow.

There is also still a low but growing chance that the system will veer further south, and miss parts of the (especially northwest) metro.

Here is the latest thinking on the system from the world headquarters of the MPR Huttner Weather Lab:

Track:

The bevy of forecast models is still maintaining a more southerly route with the surface low. The cluster of tracks position the surface low near Quincy, IL by 6am Wednesday, then move it through Chicago's south side into lower Lake Michigan by Wednesday evening at 6pm.

*This track is usually too far south for heavy snow in the metro, and I still expect the "heavy" snow band (such as it is) to lay across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

*There are some hints that the track could shift even further south. With the Twin Cities already forecast to be on the northern edge of accumulating snowfall, any further southward shift could mean that snowfall misses parts of the (N & W?) Twin Cities to the south!

Timing & duration:

A solid batch of moisture is surging north through Iowa. It's warm enough for rain in Des Moines (41 degrees). As the moisture hits the colder air and darkness falls I expect the rain to change to snow as it surges north into in southern Minnesota tonight.

Rain surges north in Iowa.

Expect snow to pick up in southern Minnesota (could mix at times with rain early) tonight and spread north toward the metro after midnight.

Snow should peak Wednesday morning, but could end quickly form west to east in the metro Tuesday afternoon. The duration of the snowfall could be under 12 hours in the Twin Cities, with longer duration snowfall lingering into Wednesday evening in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Snowfall totals:

If the storm stays on track, (an increasingly bigger if at this point) I still expect the following snowfall totals:

Heavy snow band: 4" to 6"+ (with isolated 8" totals)

This includes Mason City, Austin, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Decorah, La Crosse, Tomah, and Eau Claire.

Mankato-Twin Cities-Rice Lake & Duluth: 1" to 4"

Right now I am leaning toward the lower end of that range for much of the metro pending tonight's late model run.

Willmar-St. Cloud-Brainerd: Little or no accumulation.
Expect relatively good travel along I-94 between the Twin Cities and Fargo.

System "weakening?"

The relative lack of cold air behind the system may cause some overall weakening. Also thunderstorms on the system's southern ends are sopping up moisture that would be potentially available for snow on the system's northern edge.

Bottom line: Expect snow to increase late tonight and Wednesday morning in southern Minnesota. This does not look like a major storm for the metro, and if the track shifts further south snowfall could miss some areas of the (NW?) Twin Cities.

Stay tuned...

Spring-like pattern change ahead?

Briefly, I'm starting to see a major pattern change in the jet stream over the next two weeks. The big "boss man" Hudson Bay Polar Vortex that has controlled our weather this winter shows definite signs of weakening and shifting north.

This should open the door to milder Pacific air masses in the next two weeks. More details to come, but I expect more frequent days in the 40s (starting Friday?) and it looks like we may see a major warm up (possibly 50s!) the weekend of March 19-20th.

50s the weekend of March 10th & 20th?

It also looks like we may see some rain systems zipping through, and we may not add copious amounts of snow over the next two weeks.

More on this later...stay tuned.

PH

Metro: 1" to 4" Heavier snow S & E

Posted at 8:54 AM on March 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are on track with our late winter/early spring storm system, however... there is a slight but increasing chance that the storm may slide even further south...meaning it could conceivably miss the Twin Cities area!

NWS advisories: (Click to enlarge)

With the "storm's" effects now imminent, here's what we can expect as we head through the next 24 to 36 hours.

Today:

Scattered snow showers are lifting NE ahead of the system today. The snow will be patchy through today, but some shots of snow will fall in the southern half of Minnesota.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Temperatures should rise through the 20s and into the 30s in most areas today, keeping many roads wet instead of icy. I expect generally good driving conditions today.

Tonight:

As the low pressure system moves closer, snow will become steadier and heavier tonight. Expect snowfall coverage and intensity to pick up between 9pm and midnight in southern Minnesota, and probably after midnight in the metro. The "heaviest" snow rates should come after midnight.

Low pressure center still in Oklahoma Tuesday morning.

Temperatures should stabilize in the lower 30s tonight, and with increased snowfall rates snowfall should accumulate and slick roads will develop.

Wednesday:

Snowfall rates should peak during the morning Wednesday. Northeast winds between 10 and 20 mph will drive a wet snow. Travel will be the most difficult during the day Wednesday.

It looks like there may be a sharp cutoff in snowfall from west to east near the metro by Wednesday PM. Expect the heaviest snows in southeast Minnesota near Winona, Red Wing, Austin, Albert Lea & Rochester over to La Crosse and Eau Claire. Travel south
(I-35) and east (I-94) should be slick Wednesday.

Expect snow to end in the metro Wednesday PM from west to east, but linger in Wisconsin and SE MN.

Surface low's southern track unfavorable for heavy snow in the metro.

Snowfall totals:

Last night's NAM hinted the low pressure system may jog a little closer to Minnesota, but the overnight runs put the system back on a more southerly track.

Based on those trends I am sticking with my initial forecast snowfall totals from Monday AM.

Heavy snow band: 4" to 8"

I still expect the heaviest snow band to include Mason City, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, La Crosse & Eau Claire where 4" to as much as 8" of heavy wet snow could pile up by Wednesday night.

Twin Cities Metro: 1" to 4"

The system's snow shield looks like it may develop a sharp cutoff on the northwest side by tomorrow. That could create a pretty good "snowfall gradient" near the Twin Cities tomorrow, with lower totals around an inch or two in the northwest metro (Rogers, Anoka, Maple Grove) and closer to 4" in the southeast metro. (Lakeville, Cottage Grove)

I still believe the best snowfall range for the Twin Cities is between 1" and 4".

Snowfall totals should increase as you move south and east from the metro, with the potential for 6"+ in Red Wing, Northfield, Waseca and points south & east.

Model snowfall output suggests 2" to 3" for MSP Airport.

Model output:

The latest GFS is printing out snowfall of 1.5" for MSP Airport with this system.

(click for bigger image)

Heavy wet snow:

With temperatures close to 32 degrees for much of this event, this should be a relatively heavy wet snow. (Good snowball weather!) Snow:water ratios may be around 7:1 to 9:1 on Wednesday. Some roads may be a "slush fest" Wednesday.

Southern convection (thunderstorms) may steal some moisture:

Like many early spring storms, thunderstorms are busting out in the warmer air on the system's south side. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in the Southern Plains with this system. The storm that form can "wring out" some moisture before it gets a chance to wrap into the system's northern side. That can reduce snowfall totals in some cases.

We may hear news reports of severe weather in the southward along the Mississippi Valley with this system.

Bottom line: Expect snow spotty snow today, with snow coverage and intensity increasing tonight into Wednesday. Overall, I do not expect this to be a major snowfall event for the metro, but travel will become more difficult as you head southeast from the Twin Cities tonight & tomorrow.

There is also a slight but increasing chance this storm will slide far enough south to largely miss the Twin Cities metro.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

Twin Cities: 8th snowiest winter, Snow on track Wednesday

Posted at 5:00 PM on March 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

"We're #8! We're #8!"

We're moving up the ladder on the top 10 snowiest winter list.

Our "official" Sunday snowfall of 2.1" at MSP Airport brings our season snowfall total to a whopping, snow blower testing, ice dam forming, 78.7"!

Here's the tally from Twin Cities NWS:

We're #8!

The metro is now just 5.4" away from 5th place on the list. The season total to date tracks on par with the top 5 highest snowfall totals on record for MSP.

I think there is a good chance we'll end up in the top 5 snowiest winters when the season is (hopefully!) done in April.

Wednesday storm: Still mostly on track

My snowfall forecast remains at a range 1" to 4" for the metro by late Wednesday. I also still think the heavy snow band will set up from northern Iowa thorugh SE MN and into western Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches are in effect Tuesday night and Wednesday.

I still expect potentially heavy snowfall of 6" to 10" to the southeast by late Wednesday. Think Ames, Mason City, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, Wabasha, La Crosse, Tomah, Menomonie, Eau Claire & Wausau.

Today's model runs try to track the low ever so slightly north from last night's track...but also seem to weaken the northwest side of the system. The bottom line is I do not see any reason to vary my thinking based on the latest model runs at this point.

My latest forecast thinking remains the same as my morning analysis. You can check out the full storm analysis with my forecast snow totals for specific areas on my Updraft post from this morning.

Let's see what the Monday night & Tuesday AM model runs show. There is still plenty of time before the snow flies.

PH

Wednesday storm: Grazes metro, heavier snow S & E

Posted at 9:13 AM on March 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The forecast models are getting a better handle on snow prospects for Wednesday, and it looks like a glancing blow for the metro.

Here's the latest thinking, and my forecast snow totals as of Monday for our Wednesday system.

The system:

A moderately strong low pressure system will form in the Texas Panhandle early Tuesday and begin to track northeast.

The track:

The last few model runs are coming into closer agreement on a more southerly track. This would take the surface low from the Texas Panhandle early Tuesday, then south of Kansas City Tuesday evening to near Chicago by Wednesday evening.

This southerly track should place the heavy snow band in northern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin. It appears the Twin Cities will be on the northwest edge of this system, meaning any further southward shift in the low track could mean snowfall misses the metro.

Timing:

Look for snow to spread north during the day Tuesday in Iowa and into southern Minnesota later Tuesday night. It appears snowfall that does reach the metro will not get here until after midnight Tuesday night/ Wednesday, making this a mostly Wednesday system.

Snowfall should continue (with peak intensities) much of Wednesday south and east of the metro, but snow may end by 6pm in the Twin Cities. The event duration should be under 12 hours in the metro, with a longer period of snowfall to the south and east.

Snowfall totals:

The storm is still nearly 40 hours away, but I think we have a handle on some projected snowfall totals with this system. It appears the heavy snow band with this storm will set up through Ames, Decorah, Albert Lea, Rochester, La Crosse, Tomah, Eau Claire to Wausau.

NAM lays out heavy snow band through Iowa, SE MN & Wisconsin.

If you are in or planning travel to southeast Minnesota, Iowa or central Wisconsin
(I-35 south or I-94 east) late Tuesday night and Wednesday expect heavy snow in those areas.

Heavy snow band: 6" to 10" possible (Ames, Mason City, Decorah, Albert Lea, Rochester, La Crosse, Tomah, Eau Claire to Wausau.)

Further north & west: 2" to 5" This includes a swath from Mankato through the far SE metro to Hinckley and Duluth.

Northwest fringe of storm: 1"- 3" possible. This includes a swath from near New Ulm to Glencoe into the northwest half of Twin Cities, St. Cloud Lake Mille Lacs into the Iron Range.

The best snowfall "range" for the metro looks like 1" to 4" with the best chance of 4" in the southeast metro near Hastings and Lakeville, 2" to 3" in the central metro and closer to 1" in the northwest. The NAM & GFS are printing out 2.5" for MSP Airport Wednesday. That seems like a reasonable snowfall total to me at this point barring any track changes. Expect some variation in model snowfall output between now and Wednesday.

*Again any further southward shift in track could reduce snowfall totals accordingly.

Bottom line: Expect snow after midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday. Snow should taper by around 6pm Wednesday in the metro, but will last into the night to the east into Wisconsin. The heaviest snow band will likely set up south and east of the Twin Cities.

NAM prints out 2.5" for MSP Airport Wednesday.

Impacts:

It looks like Wednesday morning rush hour could be the first to be impacted by the snow in the metro. Travel south (I-35) and east (I-94) will become difficult all day Wednesday as the storm ramps up. While I do not expect any "blizzard" conditions, there will be winds of 15 to 25 mph with this system, and it will produce some blowing and drifting in open areas.

Storm character:

This will be a relatively wet snow compared to many of the storms we've seen this winter. Snow:water ratios should be between 9:1 and 12:1 with this storm.

Temperatures will be in the low to perhaps mid-30s with the system Wednesday. Roads may be slushy at times, but compacted snow in many areas will make for slick travel.

This will be a classic wet slushy early March storm in many areas. There could be "thundersnow" in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin with this system.

Additonal snow "chances" Friday night & Sunday night?

A note on forecasting snowfall in advance of storms.

This is the first actual snowfall "forecast" with projected totals I've made for this system. There are very good reasons why it's prudent and responsible to wait until 24 to 48 hours prior to an event to make snowfall forecasts.

-The medium range forecast models may identify the possibility of a storm a week or more in advance, but the errors are just too great 3 to 7 days out to make accurate, reliable or useful snowfall projections.

-Models don't really "lock on" to approaching storms until they track into the North American upper air (weather balloon) and surface observation network. The higher data density provided by the network allows better "sampling" of the storm properties as systems move ashore, and leads to better track and intensity forecasts.

-Model accuracy for snowfall totals in Midwest storms improves in accuracy dramatically within 48 hours of a storm.

-There is a window in which improved forecast accuracy and the need to plan and take effective action for an approaching storm meet. 24 to 48 hours in advance of a snow event is still plenty of time for most people to plan accordingly for the coming event.

Issuing specific (& likely unreliable) snowfall forecasts several days in advance can result in wild forecast ranges (2" to over a foot?) which are ultimately of little "value" to weather consumers.

Taste of Spring: A shot at 40 Thursday & Friday?

It looks like the weather will mellow and turn milder with a taste of spring Thursday into Friday. Thursday should feature plenty of bright, strong March sun, with temps making a run through the upper 30s to near 40 in southern Minnesota including the metro.

A surge of milder air Friday may help temps push into the lower 40s Friday, before another cold front (with a few rain and snow showers) brings us back to March reality this weekend.

Let's see what the next set of model runs does with the system today and tonight, and enjoy a quiet Monday and Tuesday!

PH

Comment on this post

1" to 2"+ by morning; Still on the edge Wednesday

Posted at 4:39 PM on March 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Snow totals update 11:15pm Sunday:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1002 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 BRANDON MN DOUGLAS 0926 PM
4.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0833 PM
4.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0455 PM
3.40 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0610 PM
3.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 PM
3.00 2 W FOLEY MN BENTON 0524 PM
2.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0632 PM
2.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0759 PM
1.60 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0856 PM
1.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0825 PM
1.30 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0845 PM
0.40 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0554 PM
0.20 MINNEAPOLIS AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 0554 PM

Sunday PM & evening Update:

Through Sunday night:

Weak system is producing light snow in most areas as expected. Totals should range mostly between 1" and 2" through tonight, with some isolated higher totals (to 4"?) toward Alex & St.Cloud (& maybe far NW metro) where heavier snowfall bands are present. Remember even a little light snow can produce some slick spots so take it easy as you're out and about through tonight.

Bands of light snow will move through tonight.

Still on the edge of a storm Wednesday:

The forecast models are still showing considerable differences (big surprise!) in the track and intensity of Wednesday's storm system.

*The overall trend remains to steer the surface and upper lows further south than many models were suggesting last week.

Modles track the surface low. Note the wide range in (model) locations for the surface low by 6am Wednesday! (Click to enlarge for a better view)

That means the heavy snow band will likely set up (well?) southeast of the metro, and locations such as Mason City, Iowa, Rochester and La Crosse appear to have a much better chance of heavy snow (than the metro) Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Some models (including the NAM) track the surface low from south of Kansas City Tuesday at 6pm to south of the Quad Cities Wednesday morning at 6am, and then track the system to near Madison or Milwaukee by Wednesday evening. That is generally not a favorable storm track for heavy snow in the metro, and tends to lay out the storms "heavy snow band" in northern Iowa, far southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

The European & very latest GFS model (Sunday PM) have the surface low as far south as Chicago by Wednesday evening. If that track pans out, it would drastically reduce snowfall totals near the metro. There is even a chance we could see very little snow in parts of the metro if the more southerly track verifies.

European model tracks the surface low to near Chicago by late Wednesday.

*The most reliable forecast at this point is to expect some potentially heavy snow Tuesday night & Wednesday in southeast Minnesota, northern Iowa and central Wisconsin.

*If the model trends pushing the system south continue, there is even a chance the storm could mostly miss the Twin Cities to the south.

*One thing that appears very likely? We're probably not going to get a foot of snow anywhere near the metro with this system. Now you know why we don't (publicly) forecast over a foot of snow a week in advance. As good as I'd like to think I am at forecasting snow...nobody is that good, especially with the error rate in the numerical weather forecast models a week out. Things could still change for the snowier, but at this point I'd say there is a better chance the system will miss the metro than there is for getting a foot of snow.

*I will post some model output with specific snowfall totals when I think it's more reliable, right now I don't think it's reliable enough to have much value. Hopefully things will come together with model runs tonight and Monday morning.

Bottom line: It's still too early to make a call on snowfall totals for the Twin Cities with the storm system passing to the south Tuesday night & Wednesday.

It looks like any snowfall that does hit the metro won't begin until late Tuesday night, and any effects would be during the Wednesday morning commute. We're still more than 48 hours away from this system in the metro.

Those of you in or planning travel to southern Minnesota (I-90 corridor from Worthington-Albert Lea-Rochester), northern Iowa (Spencer-Mason City-Decorah) and SW & central Wisconsin (La Crosse, Eau Claire & Tomah) should know there is a good chance of heavy snow Tuesday night & Wednesday with the latest forecast model trends.

Enjoy(?) the light snow through tonight & stay tuned!

PH

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1"+ PM &Tonight? Edge of major storm Wednesday?

Posted at 12:57 AM on March 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Just back from 2 (great!) days at Wolf Ridge ELC in Finland above the North Shore presenting a talk on the extreme & record weather of the past year to the 2nd annual Minnesota Phenology & Weather Observers gathering.

Many thanks to Peter Harris & the entire Wolf Ridge ELC team for hosting the event. And thanks to the many MPR listeners who showed up to greet us. It was great meeting you!

Sunshine on Lake Superior Saturday at Lutsen. I was not lucky enough to have time to ski, but we did ride the gondola up for lunch. What a view!

Here's a quick update on the latest model runs and thinking on snow chances the next few days. I'll have a more detailed analysis Sunday PM.

Sunday & Sunday night:

A weak "open wave" will pass over Minnesota Sunday. This minor system should eek out a little light snow today into early Monday. Models are putting out maybe an inch or two, but there are some signs the system could weaken as it moves in Sunday. Right now it appears we will have little if any snow for most of Monday PM into Tuesday.

Bottom line? Expect the possibility for a minor nuisance snowfall from Sunday PM & night into early Monday AM.

On the edge of a major winter storm Tuesday night & Wednesday:

There have been several changes in the potential track of the major winter storm which is still expected in the Midwest this week. I'll give you some quick highlights rather than a lengthy description of each (contradictory) twist in the models.

-I still expect a major winter storm to hit the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point It looks like there is a 80% chance of a plowable event from the Twin Cities south into southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and much of central Wisconsin.

-Weekend model trends track the storm further south, but there is still some chance it may "recurve" to the north, meaning it is still too early to pinpoint the heavy snow bands, and therefore to place reliable* snowfall accumulations.

*It is often not accurate (or even responsible) to forecast snowfall totals more than 24 to 48 hours in advance of these systems, as the track can and usually does vary significantly in the days preceding the storm. (How many different snowfall forecasts do you want? And which one should you "plan" for?)

-The models are coming into "closer" agreement, and we should hopefully have a better handle on storm track and where the heavy snow bands will set up (and totals) by Sunday night's model runs.

NAM hinting Twin Cities on edge of major snow by Wednesday? Stay tuned as models sort things out.

***
Bottom line: There is a high chance of snow for southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and central Wisconsin Tuesday night & Wednesday. Heavy snow (6"+) is possible somewhere between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. Forecasts should gain clarity (and hopfully accuracy and reliability!) in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned!

PH

Storm next week, then rain & 50s could be "flood trigger"

Posted at 8:22 AM on March 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (13 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

I'm getting a little more concerned this morning about a pattern change that could be a "flood trigger" in the next two weeks.

Jumping ahead here for a minute...the latest model runs confirms my thinking that a big thaw is now in sight starting the weekend of March 12th, and peaking the following week.

In fact the GFS is cranking out a high of 56 on Friday March 18th! Now that's going wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb, but if fits with the overall "long wave" pattern changes I've been seeing in the medium range forecast models.

GFS cranking out heavy rain and temps in the 50s by March 18th?

The downside of this forecast is that we could transition into a warmer but stormy pattern that could produce (convective?) rain in the next two weeks. This would not be good news for area rivers and spring flood potential.

Stay tuned...a change to much milder spring weather pattern may be about 10 days away!

Dusting Today East Metro:

The upper wave of low pressure responsible for the snow threat is weak and moving through fast, and the forecast models are picking up on the trend of just adusting of snow, mainly east metro today.

Latest NAM run likes a dusting for most of metro, with heavier snow totals east.

Right now I am leaning toward a quick shot of snow this morning with a few flurries and snow showers lingering later in the day. It appears overall accumulations under an inch in most areas...with 1" to 3" possible as you travel east along I-94 into Wisconsin.

Bottom line: Thursday's snowfall should fall into the "nuisance" category.

Major storm next Tuesday & Wednesday?

The models are still painting a picture that includes a possible major winter storm next Tuesday & Wednesday for Minnesota.

Modles cranking out heavy snow next Tuesday-Wednesday.

It's interesting to watch the medium range forecast models pick up on these systems a week out, and then tinker with timing, track and temperature profile as the days roll by.

Generally speaking, medium range (out to two weeks or so) forecast models perform better with large temperature trends than individual storm systems. But sometimes the models pick up big "high amplitude" wave patterns in the jet stream a week or so out, and that can result in reasonable forecast accuracy with bigger storms.

Still, I have seen numerous times when a big storm is "advertised" by the GFS and other medium range models and it fails to occur. There can be so many reasons for this...a shift in the low pressure track north or south can displace heavy preip bands. A northward surge of warmth can change snow to rain or ice. A previously undetected shift in the overall "long wave" pattern can weaken a potential storm in the days preceding the event.

Still the GFS and ECMWF (European) models are on track with the notion of a big snow maker for much of Minnesota next Tuesday & Wednesday. For now, I'd stick with the idea that a major "classic" March snowstorm is possible, if not likely next week.

GFS puts powerful surface low in eastern Iowa next Tuesday night.

GFS cranking out 1.43" liquid next week, and mixing snow with rain at MSP Airport.

Got Snow Fatigue?

I hear it in the voices of most Minnesotans now. Every time you mention the threat of more snow, they cringe. Cries of "Nooooooo!" and "Make it stop!" are now as common as snow drifts, ice dams and potholes.

We should realize this is not your "average" Minnesota winter...even by your daddy's standards. This is a winter on steroids. We're likely to end up with a top 3 snowiest winter on record, and we have a shot at the "title." The good news is, if you've made it this far...you're closer to "winter's finish line" than you think.

Yes, I know there are those of you who want more snow and either really are snow fanatics or delusional that all this snow is a good thing, and that we're macho Minnesotans and... blah blah blah.

If I look at the effects of this winter I'm not laughing any more.

Any additional snowfall is going to make a really, really bad spring flood situation worse. We already had plenty of soil moisture going into winter for farms and trees, adding 80" of snow on top of that is really a bit of overkill. I hope and pray that those of you in the path of floodwaters will heed the advice to buy flood insurance, and to prepare now for what's coming in the next 45 days.

I'm not a psychologist, but I can tell you from my daily conversations that people's moods and mental health seems to be taking a hit from this strenuous winter.

I've always been able to look ahead, and I'm probably a bit of a naive optimist...and for some reason I can see that spring, sunnier milder days and green shoots (and outdoor baseball!) are closer than we think this time of year. But still looking out my window and the talk of more snow on the way can even get to me too.

All I can say is "hang in there." The weather will get better! Spring really is coming soon...and you can trust that I am scanning the weather maps for the first sign of a significant change in our weather pattern that will lead to a more spring like pattern. And it does look potentially milder as we head into the weekend of March 12th & 13th.

What do you think? Are you "done" with winter & snow? Or would you rather have a big March and bust the record? Do tell....

PH

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Forecast: 1" to 3" tomorrow...major storm next Tuesday?

Posted at 8:20 AM on March 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Thursday snow update:

The latest look at the weather maps confirms my thinking on 1" to 3" of new snowfall Thursday. The system will be gaining strength right over the metro as it moves east into Wisconsin. That may put some heavier snow totals in the east metro by later Thursday PM.

Season snowfall record in sight?

My former WCCO-TV colleague and TV news icon Dave Moore used to say; "Make no big decisions in March."

Looking at the weather maps over the next two weeks and doing the math leads me to believe there is now at least an 80% chance this will end up as the snowiest winter on record in the Twin Cities.

-Snowfall so far: 76.5"

-Likely snow in the next week: Another 10"-12" (Total 86" to 88")

That leaves another 10" to 12" to break the all time record, and that is very "doable" during the rest of March and into early April.

Stay tuned, and keep the shovel handy for now.

PH

It was in the 60s in Nebraska again Tuesday. Spring is so close... a 5 hour drive on the freeway, but so far away on the weather maps.

Mini-Thaw: Nice while it lasted!

Ample sunshine and mild westerly breezes made for a nice thaw Tuesday in southern Minnesota and much of the Upper Midwest. Here are some afternoon temps, all within a mere 5 to 7 hour trip from the Twin Cities!

-Twin Cities 41 degrees
-Des Moines 50 degrees
-Omaha 56 degrees

Tuesday's high of 41 degrees was the warmest day in the Twin Cities in 12 days!

Tuesday PM temperatures show huge contrast in air masses from 60s south to sub-zero north!

Snow cover retreating north:

The Minnesota landscape still lokks like mid-winter with a foot or more of snow on the ground in many locations. But drive 3 hours south of the metro and you'll see bare ground! The northern edge of the snowpack has (temporarily) retreated into northern and central Iowa. Much of Nebraska is also snow free.

The higher March sun angle and lack of snow cover to the south & southwest played a big role in allowing southwest winds to warm southern Minnesota nicely Tuesday.

Tale of two seasons:

While southern Minnesota basked in brief spring-like warmth Tuesday, the next arctic front frosted northern Minnesota. Temperatures hovered single digits Tuesday in the northwest, and the arctic air is oozing south. Lows will again dip to -20 or colder in northern Minnesota overnight, with highs in the single digits and teens Wednesday as a wintry air mass returns.

Next snow Thursday:

The next weather system makes a move on Minnesota Thursday. Moisture will overrun the cold air dome near the surface as low pressure sails in from the west. Snow will bust out as a result Thursday, and it could be enough to plow by Thursday night.

At this point it looks like this will be a minor weather system, with snow breaking out Thursday AM and lasting through midday before tapering Thursday PM. Early indications point to general 1" to 3" snow totals with Thursday's system. Thursday midday and PM rush hour could be slick and slow as a result.

Nicer Friday!

It looks like Friday may bring a break in the action, and a return to sunshine and milder temps. Highs should reach the 30s again in much of Minnesota.

Southern system Saturday:

The models are tracking another systems passing south through Iowa Saturday with a chance of snow clipping southern Minnesota. This system could be a big (10"?) snow producer for Des Moines and Madison if you are planning travel south or east.

It looks dry and sunny (but cool) in the north Saturday.

Major Winter Storm next week?

All systems appear to be go for our next major winter storm Monday... and especially Tuesday. The models are developing a powerful "lee side low" in Colorado on Monday, then tracking it east into Iowa and Wisconsin Tuesday. This is a perfect track to dump heavy snow in Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

Models tracking major storm potential next Tuesday!

The Gulf of Mexico will be "wide open" with this storm, feeding moisture into the system. That could mean a heavy wetter snow. The additional moisture and strong upper air dynamics may produce thundersnow once again.

There is still a chance the track could change, but if ti stays on track, this could be a classic, heavy, knock down-drag out March snow storm next Tuesday!

Signs of a thaw?

There are signs of a thaw somewhere around the March 14 to 16 time frame. Milder Pacific air may work into the Upper Midwest. It's a long way out...and there may still be more snow behind that.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

Blockbuster storm sets records; Metro range 7" to 17"

Posted at 8:06 AM on February 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

There are still patchy areas of snow and freezing drizzle falling around Minnesota today as the storms trailing upper level low pressure system gradually pulls out of Minnesota.

As the storm eases and we have a chance to dig out from another whopper, it is evident some records have fallen.

Storm character:

This was an "interesting" storm. (How could a 17" not be "interesting" right?)
Each storm is different. This one was slow getting going, and featured patchy snowfall coverage early on. There were bands of heavy snow (south metro) next to snow free areas (north metro). Pockets of dry air on the storms northern edge limited snowfall for several hours in north metro communities.

The storm also had huge east-west coverage, but was relatively narrow north to south. At one point Sunday it was snowing from Idaho to Pennsylvania! At the same time the snow/ice band was relatively narrow north to south, with precip bracketed between the south metro and northern Iowa.

Storm had a big east-west "stretch" Sunday.

Snowfall range:

Snowstorms are not homogeneous in terms of producing snowfall. There are large variations in snowfall over relatively small distances, often due to localized convective snowbursts or "thundersnow" within the storm. The "banded" structure of heavy snow can produce big ranges in snowfall over short distances.

As expected, this storm produced a big range in snowfall totals, even within the heaviest snow band and across the metro. The heaviest snowfall band set up from near Montevideo (10.5") eastward along the Minnesota River Valley (8"-10") into the south metro (10" to 17") to Eau Claire (9.5").

In the Twin Cities metro area, snowfall reports indicate the overall snowfall range appears to be 7" to 17".

Eden Prairie 17"
Forest Lake & Isanti 7"

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
759 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 20TH-21ST WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
17.00 NW EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1030 PM
16.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0713 AM
13.30 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0729 AM
13.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0610 A
12.50 ENE ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0530 AM
12.30 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST
PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
12.00 3 N BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0730 AM
12.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
12.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0553 AM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0854 PM
12.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0803 AM
11.80 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0915 PM
11.60 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1029 PM
11.50 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0130 AM
11.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
11.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0702 AM
11.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0701 AM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
10.60 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0539 AM
10.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
10.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0909 PM
10.30 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0529 AM
10.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0626 AM
10.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0600 AM
10.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0600 AM
10.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0500 AM
10.00 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1100 PM
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
9.70 WACONIA MN CARVER 0803 AM
9.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0936 PM
9.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0728 AM
9.00 LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
9.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0151 AM
8.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0658 AM
8.60 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0653 AM
8.40 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 PM
8.00 2 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0731 AM
8.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0730 AM
8.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0725 AM
8.00 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0700 AM
8.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0613 AM
8.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0600 AM
8.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0552 AM
7.50 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0554 AM
7.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0610 AM
7.00 5 NE FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0441 AM
6.80 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 1015 PM
6.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0743 AM
6.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0600 AM
6.50 BLAINE MN ANOKA 1001 PM
6.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0530 AM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
6.00 2 NNW WAITE PARK MN STEARNS 1057 PM
5.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
5.90 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1115 PM
5.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0815 PM
5.10 CAMERON WI BARRON 0843 PM
4.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 1127 PM
4.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
3.50 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0858 PM

The north metro piled up less snow due to drier air early in the storm, as heavy snow bands set up over and pummeled the southern metro.

The latest snowfall summary from NWS is here.

Records fall:

Reports are still coming in, but it appears the storm set several snowfall records.

-Eden Prairie's 17" broke the all time daily state snowfall record for Minnesota for Feburary 20th. (Previoud record was Marshall with 16" on Feb 20th 1952.)

-MSP's 12.3" is the all time biggest February snowstorm on record at Twin Cities Aiport. (Previous was 10.7" Feb. 1-2, 2004)

-Season snowfall at MSP Airport so far is now a whopping 72.9"! This ranks as the 11th snowiest winter on record, and the 3rd snowiest to date so far.

NWS: 3rd snowiest winter to date at MSP.

Flood outlook: Storm adds moisture to snowpack

It looks like the storm added another .50" to 1.2" of water to snowpack across much of southern Minnesota, especially in the Minnesota River watershed. This will certainly not help improve the spring flood scenario.

It looks like the overall snow:water ratio for the storm ended up at around 14:1 in the metro.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

location/max temp/min temp/precip/snowfall/snow depth

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 28 / 21 / 0.86/ 10.0/ 17
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 27 / 23 / 0.89/ 12.3/ 14
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 27 / 20 / 0.55/ 5.9/ 12

CLSM5: CARLOS MN : DH0554/ M / M / 0.41/ 8.0/ 16
MPXM5: CHANHASSEN WFO : DH0554/ 26 / 21 / 0.88/ 11.2/ 11
FORM5: FOREST LAKE MN : DH0700/ 30 / 6 / 0.69/ 7.5/ 9
HSTM5: HASTINGS L/D MN : DH0600/ 25 / 21 / 1.10/ 10.0/ 17
KIMM5: KIMBALL MN : DH0554/ 25 / 18 / 1.03/ 4.0/ 12
LCHM5: LITCHFIELD MN : DHM / M / M / 0.89/ 8.0/ M
LTFM5: LITTLE FALLS MN : DHM / M / M / 0.32/ 6.5/ 15
LNGM5: LONG PRAIRIE MN : DH0600/ 22 / 13 / 0.29/ 3.5/ 12
LSAM5: LWR ST ANTHONY MN : DH0600/ M / M / 0.87/ M/ M
MGNM5: MORGAN MN : DH0554/ M / M / 1.20/ 11.0/ 19
RDWM5: RED WING L/D MN : DH0600/ 28 / 24 / 0.80/ 6.0/ M
REWM5: REDWOOD FALLS MN : DH0500/ 24 / 19 / 0.94/ 10.5/ 24
SCSM5: ST CLOUD ST MN : DH0530/ M / M / 0.57/ 6.2/ 12

The weather over the next 2-4 weeks is still the primary wild card in determining how severe spring flooding is. Major to record flooding is still likely per the NWS spring flood outlook.

PH

Comment on this post

Eden Prairie 17"! Patchy snow Monday

Posted at 10:41 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

There's an old saying in weather offices. "Never rush a good snowstorm."

Our latest winter barrage took its time getting here, and then delivered a fierce punch.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

1030 PM SNOW NW EDEN PRAIRIE M17.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

The worst may be over, but the snow is still falling in some areas this Presidents' Day. As the trailing upper level low pressure system slowly pulls out Monday, Occasional snow will linger for much of the day in some areas.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue into Monday.

-Latest Twin Cties radar loop

What to expect Monday:

Snowfall intensity has decreased overnight, but some bands of moderate to at times heavy snow will linger, especially north metro and points north. The plows will have a chance to work on the roads overnight, but expect slick and slow conditions if you do have to commute Monday morning.

Some "wrap around" on the back side of the low as it pulls away could produce another 1" to 3" in many spots, especially north of the metro Monday.

The NAM is cranking out another .23" of liquid Monday. If that verifies, some areas could pick up another 2" to 4" closer to the metro.

Snowfall totals so far:

There have been some eye popping snowfall totals with this storm!

Here are some selected totals from NWS as of late Sunday night.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1008 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY FEB 20TH...

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0843 PM
14.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0809 PM
13.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
12.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0800 PM
12.00 3 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0900 PM
11.80 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0915 PM
11.00 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 0830 PM
11.00 1 ESE CARVER MN SCOTT 0800 PM
10.80 3 W ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0745 PM
HIGHLAND PARK AREA OF ST. PAUL.
10.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0900 PM
10.00 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0845 PM
8.60 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 PM
8.40 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0800 PM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0745 PM
DOWNTOWN MANKATO AREA...
7.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0750 PM
6.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0900 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0809 PM
5.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0815 PM
5.10 CAMERON WI BARRON 0843 PM
2.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0800 PM

You can get the latest individual totals here.

The latest snowfall summary is here.

A "Top 10" Winter!

The 13" recorded at MSP Airport puts the season snowfall total at a whopping 74.1"! If we pick up just another .3" of snow Monday that will put us in the top 10 snowiest winters on record for MSP!

State snowfall record smashed:

UM Climate Guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley sends word that we will likely break the all time state record for snowfall for February 20th!

With 15 inches of new snow at Bloomington, and much more to come I think it is safe to bet we will break the all-time state record for snowfall on February 20th ......that dates back to 1952 at Marshall when they received 16 inches. Observer at Hutchinson must be over 85 inches on the season so far.....

Mark

As you see above, the 17" total at Eden Prairie has smashed the record.

Thanks Mark... (I think!)

Join me on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer starting at 6:45am and Midmorning with Kerri Miller at 9am Monday for the latest storm wrap up.

What a winter!

PH

Comment on this post

Update: Bloomington 15"! Snowfall range 10" to 20" by Monday

Posted at 8:54 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 9:20pm:

UM Climate Guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley sends word that we will likely break the all time state record for snowfall for February 20th!

With 15 inches of new snow at Bloomington, and much more to come I think it is safe to bet we will break the all-time state record for snowfall on February 20th ......that dates back to 1952 at Marshall when they received 16 inches. Observer at Hutchinson must be over 85 inches on the season so far.....

Mark

Thanks Mark... (I think!)

PH

Update 8:50PM:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
843 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0843 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M15.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Update 8:20pm:

0809 PM SNOW EDEN PRAIRIE M14.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED AMOUNT IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF
CITY.

0830 PM SNOW 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD M11.0 INCH RAMSEY MN
TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER SNOW REPORTED AROUND 730 PM. STORM TOTAL SO
FAR...

Evening radar trends:

Latest MSP radar loop shows southern edge of snowfall lifting north toward the metro.

One of two things may happen by midnight.

1) The back edge of precip shuts off snowfall (at least temporarily) as it moves into the metro.

2) The northward progress of the back edge stops as the snow axis reaches the "pivot point" of the storm. If that happens the snow bands could stall right over the metro, especially the northern metro.

Either scenario may fit with the idea of snow tapering off a bit after midnight. Precip has already ended for now in much of southern Minnesota.

Get the latest individual snowfall totals here.

Latest snowfall summary here. (Some totals may not be up to the minute)

Stay tuned!

PH

Update 7pm:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0600 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M13.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

Latest snowfall totals here.

The latest "Minnesota Snow Blitz" has been a little finicky, but is delivering on the promise of a wind driven heavy snowfall "event."

The storm was a little slow getting started, and produced some spotty snowfall coverage early. Since then, the storm has ramped up to full fury.

**Based on the storm's progression I am sticking to my forecast of 10" to 20" storm total snowfall in the heavy snow band, which I expect to run from the Minnesota River Valley through the south metro to near Red Wing.

-Snowfall has now reached 10" in some areas form the south metro to the Minnesota River.

Montevideo 10.5"
St. Peter 10"
Mankato 10"
Bloomington & Burnsville now 10" to 13"

-The storm's "deformation zone" is stretching out from east to west near the metro, and I still expect another 12 to 18 hours of accumulating snowfall, through noon Monday. The storm is about halfway over in many areas!

-The heaviest snowfall rates should come between now and midnight, as bands of heavy snowfall push up from southern Minnesota ahead of the storms upper air center, or "vorticity max."

Modles still cranking out a 10" to 18" total snowfall range at MSP Airport.

-Howling winds will create blizzard conditions in much of southwest and west central Minnesota. Wind gusts over 60mph have been recorded in South Dakota!

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect into Monday!

(click to enlarge)

Some people say never to tell Minnesotans not to drive; I am not one of those. Given the wind and intense snowfall rates and blowing snow it would be foolish to attempt travel tonight. There have literally been hundreds of accidents today, and dozens of injuries. Do not attempt travel tonight unless it absolutely urgent.

Here are some of the latest snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS OF 500 PM FEBRUARY 20-21 WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0445 PM
8.50 1 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0430 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
8.20 1 NW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0455 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
8.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0338 PM
7.00 2 NW REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0512 PM
7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0430 PM
7.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0400 PM
7.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0247 PM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1117 AM
6.70 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM
6.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0338 PM
6.00 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0430 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
6.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0430 PM
6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0400 PM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0112 PM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1229 PM
6.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1038 AM
5.90 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM
5.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0444 PM
5.80 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1023 AM
5.50 1 N PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0320 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0127 PM
5.50 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1038 AM
5.40 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM
HIGHLAND PARK
5.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1117 AM
5.00 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1038 AM
4.90 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0230 PM
4.80 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0400 PM
4.50 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0420 PM
4.50 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0245 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
4.40 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0330 PM
4.30 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM
4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1200 PM
ONE HALF MILE WEST OF TOWN.
4.20 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0145 PM
4.10 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0316 PM
4.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0420 PM
4.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0152 PM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1023 AM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 1 S TRIMONT MN MARTIN 1023 AM
4.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
3.60 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1137 AM
3.50 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0445 PM
SNOWFALL SO FAR...
3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0105 PM
3.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1038 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1023 AM
3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0445 PM
3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0145 PM
3.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
3.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 1229 PM
3.00 WASECA MN WASECA 1023 AM
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1023 AM
NEAR HIGHLAND PARK
2.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0302 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0105 PM
0.24 INCHES OF MOISTURE
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1229 PM
1.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0512 PM
1.40 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0512 PM
1.20 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0445 PM

PH

Comment on this post

Storm Rages: Bloomington 9"! 2" in past hour!

Posted at 4:20 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 5:25pm:

0445 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M9.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0455 PM SNOW 1 NW BURNSVILLE M8.2 INCH DAKOTA MN NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

Update 4:45pm:

"Snomageddon" now in Deephaven and much of the metro with 1/4 mile visibility band of heavy snow (1/4S+) moving through! Snowfall rates now 1" per hour in metro.

Snow burst with visibilities at or under 1/4 mile in metro.
(click to enlarge!)

Heavy snow burst with dramatically reduced visibility.

Blowing snow with gusty winds.

Latest snowfall totals here:

0338 PM SNOW LESTER PRAIRIE E8.0 INCH MCLEOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0338 PM SNOW SHAKOPEE 44.77N 93.48W
02/20/2011 M6.5 INCH SCOTT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M7.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0400 PM SNOW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
02/20/2011 M5.4 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGHLAND PARK

0400 PM SNOW WILLMAR 45.12N 95.05W
02/20/2011 M4.8 INCH KANDIYOHI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
02/20/2011 M6.0 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW SW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
02/20/2011 M6.7 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Update 4pm:

Heavier snow band now moving into metro form the south. Expect snowfall intentsity to pick up during the hour, and coverage to increase in the north metro.

Heavy snow band moving north into metro.

Here are some upated snow totals:

Shakopee 6.5"
Bloomington 5.9"
Prior Lake 5.5"
SW Minneapolis 4.5"
Minnetonka 4.3"
Chanhassen (NWS) 4.1"

I still expect the peak of the storm between now and midnight. With 6.5" down so far in Shakopee, snow totals over a foot are still possible, especially in the south metro.

PH

****Update 3pm****

Every storm is different.

This one is throwing us some curves so far in the weather lab.

Radar and satellite trends:

Bands of moderate to heavy snow have been pummeling towns along the Minnesota River Valley all day.

Twin Cities radar loop shows both bands of heavy snows and dry pockets through mid-afternoon.

Redwood Falls, New Ulm and Mankato have snow totals at or above 8" so far, with snow still coming down in most areas along the Minnesota River.

In the metro, the heavier snow bands have favored the south metro. Snow totals around 3" and 4" are common from Deephaven to Prior Lake to Hastings.

But a pocket of drier air near the surface has been eroding the north end of the snow shield, and little or no snowfall has been observed in north metro communities such as Andover, Hugo, Anoka and Maple Grove. The dry pocket extends north and west of the metro to Big Lake, Monticello, and Annandale.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...FEBRUARY 20TH SNOWSTORM TOTALS...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1117 AM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0112 PM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1229 PM
6.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1038 AM
5.80 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1023 AM
5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0127 PM
5.50 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1038 AM
5.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1117 AM
5.00 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1038 AM
4.90 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0230 PM
4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1200 PM
ONE HALF MILE WEST OF TOWN.
4.20 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0145 PM
4.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0152 PM
4.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 1 S TRIMONT MN MARTIN 1023 AM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1023 AM
3.60 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1137 AM
3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0105 PM
3.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1038 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1023 AM
3.30 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0116 PM
3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0154 PM
3.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
3.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 1229 PM
3.00 LE CENTER MN LE SUEUR 1023 AM
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1023 AM
3.00 WASECA MN WASECA 1023 AM
2.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 1229 PM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1219 PM
2.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1219 PM
2.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1023 AM
2.30 4 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1200 PM
NEAR HIGHLAND PARK
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0105 PM
0.24 INCHES OF MOISTURE
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1242 PM
1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1229 PM
1.90 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1202 PM
MEASURED AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
1.40 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0116 PM
1.20 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1242 PM
1.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1038 AM
MEASURED AT CWSU FACILITY.
0.90 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0115 PM

The next wave of moisture is surging north from southern Minnesota this afternoon. There has been lighting and thunder with this wave, and it should continue to push north into the metro and central Minnesota though late afternoon and evening. It remains to be seen just how far north this next wave will push.

Latest model data:

We're in between major model runs, and that pust us in "nowcasting" mode...watching radar, satellite and surface observations for clues to the storm's development.

The big picture is that the peak storm intensity should still arrive in the next 6-9 hours...through midnight as the surface low crosses Iowa. With 4" to 8" down already from the south metro to the Minnesota River, it's beginning to look like overall snowfall totals could fall into the 10" to 15" range in the heavy snow band, which should include the south metro. That band is trending south...with the epicenter lining up from the southern metro to the Minnesota River.

Surface map shows low center in Iowa, and "inverted trof" extending north into western Minnesota.

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect; let's see how far north the next wave of snowfall can push as we head toward the evening hours.

(click to enalrge)

Stay tuned as this evolving storm unfolds before our eyes!

PH

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Storm Update: Snow totals coming in

Posted at 12:55 PM on February 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Snow continues across most of southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. There are reports of ice and sleet mixed in along the I-90 corridor as expected.

3.75" in Deephaven (west metro) at 2pm.

Here are the latest snow totals form Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...FEBRUARY 20TH SNOWSTORM TOTALS...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1117 AM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1229 PM
6.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1038 AM
5.80 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1023 AM
5.50 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1038 AM
5.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1117 AM
5.00 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1038 AM
4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1200 PM
ONE HALF MILE WEST OF TOWN.
4.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 1 S TRIMONT MN MARTIN 1023 AM
4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1023 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1023 AM
3.60 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1137 AM
3.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1038 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1023 AM
3.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 1229 PM
3.00 LE CENTER MN LE SUEUR 1023 AM
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1023 AM
3.00 WASECA MN WASECA 1023 AM
2.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1219 PM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1219 PM
2.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1023 AM
2.30 4 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1200 PM
NEAR HIGHLAND PARK
1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1229 PM
1.90 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1202 PM
MEASURED AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
1.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1038 AM
MEASURED AT CWSU FACILITY.

Moderate to heavy snow continues in most of southern Minnesota, with the peak storm still ahead through tonight.

Here's the NWS' latest thinking on snowfall.

PH

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Long duration snow setting up

Posted at 11:36 AM on February 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Click map for enlargement.

Surface map from mid morning. The center of the storm is still down in south central Nebraska. Central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin are in a very favorable area to receive very heavy snowfall during the next twevle hours.

Elsewhere, gusty winds and cold temperatures are resulting in sub zero wind chills in northwest Minnesota. The strong pressure graident with this storm is producing wind gusts to 45 mph in Duluth Harbor.

Thunder snow is possible with rapidly accumulating snow. Bright bands on the radar shortly before noon indicated sleet and heavy snow from about Albert Lea to Rochester.

Snowfall reports from Chanhassen NWS.
CE

Blizzard to near blizzard conditions expected

Posted at 6:10 AM on February 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter storms

The Winter Storm Warnings are posted for southern and central Minnesota and bordering areas. Snow along with sleet and some freezing rain will advance from South Dakota and northern Iowa into Minnesota this morning. Travel conditions will deteriorate throughout the middle to late morning. Visibility in blowing snow will be reduced to several hundred feet at times this afterooon. If you must travel complete your travel as soon as possible.

Here is the latest outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the NWS. This encompasses a lot of territory where more than a foot of snow is expected to accumulate. Paul posted the snowfall potentials derived by model data. Some places may tally more than twenty inches by daybreak on Monday.

To the south of this highlighted area a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected. Here's a recent graphic indicating the danger of ice today.

The heaviest accumulation of snow will take place from about noon today to 2AM tonight. Winds of 30 mph will blow and drift snow, particularly in rurual areas.

I have suggested to individuals that they complete travel by noon today if you are moving about the region south of Grand Forks, North Dakota to Hayward, Wisconsin.
CE

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Storm Update: 10" to 20"+ snowfall totals could rival "Domebuster"

Posted at 11:09 PM on February 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 1am Sunday:

North Platte, Nebraska radar loop detects cloud to ground lightning and heavy convective snow bursts busting out in central Nebraska at 1am. Expect "thundersnow" in Minnesota Sunday PM & evening.

Black dots indicate lightning on North Platte, Nebraska radar loop.

***
Get ready for another potential "top 10" Minnesota "snow event."

The Saturday late evening model runs are in, and the trends support heavier snowfall with the coming snowstorm.

Based on the latest model trends I am now forecasting a range of 10" to 20" storm total snowfall for much of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area.

This includes Ortonville, Granite Falls, Redwood Falls, Marshall, Willmar, Glencoe, the Twin Cities, Red Wing, and Eau Claire. Within this general heavy snow band area (especially west of the metro) the storm could produce some incredible snowfall totals over 20"!

Winter storm warnings are still flying, and blizzard warnings have been expanded into southwest Minnesota Sunday!

NWS expands blizzard warnings!
(click to enlarge)

NAM places heavy 10" to 20" snow band over metro & much of southern Minnesota.
(click for bigger image)

Here are the highlights of the storm as we head into the overnight hours early Sunday morning:

Latest 00Z (6pm) model trends:
(Note: the 00Z model run is completed around 9-10pm)

Timing:

The storm motion has slowed about 3-5 hours. Snow/ice should begin in southwest Minnesota between midnight and 6am. It looks like snowfall may begin in the metro roughly between 6am and 9am Sunday morning.

Track:

The 00Z storm track is ever so slightly further south. The NAM takes the surface low track through southern Iowa vs. central Iowa Sunday. The small shift should still place the heaviest snow band right over the Twin Cities metro area.

Lee Cyclogenesis:

The surface low is developing rapidly along the lee slopes of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The topography of the mountains is perfect for deepening storms in the wake flow behind the mountains. Meteorologists call this rapid deepening of low pressure system "lee cyclogenesis."

-Snowfall totals:

The last two runs of the GFS and NAM have produced some eye opening snowfall totals.

The 00Z (6pm) NAM model is cranking out an incredible 1.54" liquid...and a storm total snowfall of 25.5" for MSP Airport! The latest 18Z (noon) GFS run came in at 22.5" for MSP!

NAM: 25.5"!
(click to enlarge)

Models trending ever higher with snowfall.
(click for bigger easily readable image)

While it would be easy to take these totals at face value (and they still could happen!), there are a couple of reasons why I think they may be on the high end of the snowfall range.

On reason is that the storm's geometry has the surface low evolving into more of an "open wave" late Sunday into Monday. This may stretch the storm a bit...and could result in lower snowfall rates late in the event.

Still, prior to the Domebuster storm, the models were cranking out around 17" of snow, and that's what we got (17.4") at MSP. It is possible we may see some 20"+ totals. My hunch is they will be west of the metro.

Why a 10" to 20"+ range?

The "banded structure" of heavy snowfall events produces surprisingly wide snowfall variations over relatively short distances. This is because "convective snow bursts" can deliver locally heavy snow totals in small areas, just like with summer thunderstorms.

You may recall the wide range of snowfall totals in the Dombuster storm of Dec 10-11th. There was literally a range of 10" to 23.5" in the metro with that storm. That kind of a range is possible again with this storm due to the relatively narrow heavy snow band and "banded structure" of the heavy snow bands embedded within the storm.

Snowfall rates:

The peak snowfall rates with this storm appear to be slated between noon Sunday and midnight Monday. The latest NAM is cranking out some incredible snowfall rates of 2" to 3" per hour! This is likely the result of convective snowbursts or "thundersnow." These "mini thunderstorms" embedded within the overall snow area can really put down a lot of snow in a hurry!

Do not be surprised to see (oddly colored!) flashes of lightning and hear thunder with this storm, accompanied by intense snowfall bursts during the height of the storm late Sunday afternoon and evening. With wind, heavy snowfall and thunder things could get really intense for a few hours Sunday PM & evening!

Southern Minnesota event:

Note the rapid cutoff in snowfall totals once you get north of Hinckley & Brainerd. With the tight snowfall "gradient" on the storm's north edge and the slight southerly shift, MPR listeners and weather fans in Fargo, Duluth and points north may be delighted (or disappointed!) to see little or no snowfall from this realtively narrow (north-south) system.

2010-'11:Top 10 snowiest winters?

We've piled up 61.1" of snowfall so far this winter season in the metro.

This storm (another 13.3"+) should put the Twin Cities squarely in the top 10 snowiest winters on record.

Top 10 metro season snowfalls.
(click to enlarge)

Bottom Line:

Prepare for another storm of "Domebuster" magnitude Sunday into Presidents' Day. Travel may be possible early Sunday morning, but conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday afternoon and evening.

Icing is still likely along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

It looks like this is going to be another one for the books by Monday. Craig Edwards will have updates on MPR News stations and here in Updraft Sunday morning, and I will be back at it Sunday afternoon and evening.

Check out my earlier posts for additional detail on the storm.

Here are some resources to keep tabs on the "Sunday Snow Blitz."

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Twin Cities NWS (latest warnings)
-Twin Cities NWS storm page

Stay safe!

PH

Latest Models: GFS 22.5"...NAM 25.5"!

Posted at 9:50 PM on February 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

I'm working on a longer version of this post, but I wanted to get the headline out there.

It looks like I'm going to raise my snowfall forecast for the metro and much of southern Minnesota for a 2nd time.

I am now leaning toward a storm snowfall total of between 10" and 20" by Monday noon for much of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

This includes Redwood Falls, Willmar, The Twin Cities, Eau Claire & Red Wing.

The 00Z (6pm) NAM run is in. The model is cranking out an incredible 1.54" liquid...and a storm total snowfall of 25.5" for MSP Airport!

The latest 18Z (noon) GFS run came in at 22.5" for MSP.

The models are producing incredible snowfall rates of up to 2" and 3" per hour Sunday late PM & evening!

The other trend is to slow the storm about 3-6 hours. It looks like snowfall will begin in the metro between 6am & 9am Sunday.

More soon....

PH

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Evening Update: Domebuster II? 10" to 17"+ totals possible

Posted at 6:38 PM on February 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 6:40pm:

Here's an eye opener.

The latest 18Z (noon) GFS run is cranking out an incredible 22.5" storm total snowfall at MSP Airport!

GFS snowfall total now = 22.5"!

For the record I think that number is on the extreme high side, and the next run may (hopefully!) reduce that total. I'm sticking with a general 10" to 17" snowfall range in the metro and much of central & southern Minnesota by noon Monday posted in my more complete discussion below.

Sure makes tonight's model run a little more interesting though!

More after about 9:30 to 10pm tonight when I've had a chance to sift through the new numbers.

PH

***orignal post 2:20pm Saturday***

Here we go again.

The latest forecast models are in, and all signs still point to another major winter storm "event" for much of central & southern Minnesota...including the Twin Cities metro Sunday.

Winter storm warnings are now in effect from 6am Sunday to 6am Monday.

NWS Winter storm warnings. (Click to enlarge)

Here are the latest details on the coming winter storm, which will slam the area Sunday.

The System:

Potent low pressure is developing today in Colorado. The low will deepen and move east into Iowa Sunday. The models remain consistent on the track, which is usually a heavy snow producer for Minnesota.

Timing:

It appears that a broad area of "lift" will rapidly develop in southern Minnesota after midnight, and snowfall will bust out from SW to NE overnight. Snowfall should get going in SW Minnesota (Pipestone to Redwood Falls) by around midnight, and begin the Twin Cities sometime between 2am & 6am.

As the low moves closer Sunday, snowfall will intensify during the morning hours Sunday. It looks now like peak snowfall intensity (rates of around 1" per hour) should be between noon Sunday and midnight Monday. Snowfall should be heaviest during those 12 hours Sunday PM & evening.

Lighter snow may continue into Monday morning before the snow tapers from north to south Monday.

Snow water content:

Moisture surging up form the south means the snow will be relatively wet during the first part of the storm. The NAM model is cranking out a snow:water ratio of 7:1 early Sunday PM. The snow should dry out as the storm progresses, with snow:water ratios approaching 20:1 late Sunday night & Monday.

Snowfall totals:

The forecast models are consistent so far in laying the heaviest band of snow on a rough Ortonville-Redwood Falls-Willmar-Twin Cities-Eau Claire line. This may extend on the north end as far as St. Cloud, and as far south as Mankato to the south.

Within the heavy snow band I now expect a general area producing snowfall totals between 10" and 17" including the Twin Cities metro!

NAM model lays heaviest snow band right through Twin Cities metro.

As you can see on the map, snowfall totals will taper on the northern end toward Duluth and south into Iowa.

The NAM is cranking out a (scary!) 17" total for MSP Airport by the time the storm ends Monday. This may be on the higher range of things...but it is not out of the question that we may see similar totals to the "Domebuster" storm in December that produced 10" to 20" snowfall.

NAM: 1.25" liquid yields 17" snow total at MSP Airport!
(click to enlarge for better view)

At this point my best estimate is that most snow totals in the heavy snow band will range between 10" and 17" by Monday noon. It is possible we could see some snowfall totals in excess of 17".

Wind driven snow:

Northeast winds will build into the 15-30 mph range as the storm intensifies Sunday. This will be a wind whipped snow. Expect blowing and drifting in open areas, especially Sunday night.

Ice south:

Mild air above freezing in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere will surge into southern Minnesota briefly Sunday. This may create a wintery mix of sleet & ice in Worthington, Mankato, Albert Lea and other towns along the I-90 corridor. Expect snowfall to be reduced accordingly, but the ice will make for treacherous travel.

Thundersnow?

The upper air dynamics with this storm, and the fact that ice may move close to the southern metro at times may combine to create thundersnow in parts of southern Minnesota. Do not be surprised to hear a clap of thunder Sunday PM or evening, followed by a "burst" of heavier snow.

Bottom line & travel:

-This will be a major winter weather "event" for central and southern Minnesota Sunday into Presidents' Day.

-Travel should be okay tonight into the wee hours Sunday...but travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly Sunday morning. Travel will be very difficult to dangerous Sunday PM into Monday morning. You may want to get those "errands" done today and tonight!

Craig Edwards and I are watching the developing storm closely and will have extra updates tonight and Sunday as the storm ramps up on MPR news stations and here in Updraft.

We've set the table so to speak...now let's wait to see one more major model run tonight before the flakes start flying early Sunday morning. I'm still looking for a scenario that will produce less snow with this system, but right now I can't find one. Maybe tonight's model run will shed more light.

Prepare accordingly and stay tuned!

PH

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Don't rush a good snow storm

Posted at 9:53 AM on February 19, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

The latest computer model guidance, based on upper air observations taken at 6am, is holding firm on the potential for heavy snow from South Dakota through the southern half of MInnesota into Wisconsin. Snow will likely be mixed with sleet for a time early Sunday in far southern Minnesota.

Here's one of the computer model's projections for the position of the center of the surface low at 6PM on Sunday. Old school synoptic meteorology tells me this is in a great path to produce heavy snow from Marshall up to St. Cloud to the Twin Cities. Wind barbs are in knots. Expect winds of 20 to 30 miles an hour to blow and drift snow Sunday and Sunday evening.

There is no need to start altering snowfall predictions. The heaviest snow will likely occur from 9AM until about 10PM Sunday. More than twelve hours of moderate to heavy snowfall will tally up to ten plus inches of snow in some locations.
CE

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A grand reprise of winter

Posted at 5:50 AM on February 19, 2011 by Craig Edwards (6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

Old Man Winter may have dozed off for awhile, but he's got plenty of game left for February. Snow will crank up later today in the central Plains and expand north and east tonight. Here's the latest thinking from the National Weather Service, which paints the most likely area of heaviest snow from about Montevideo through the Twin Cities into Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

There will be a couple more model runs before the snowflakes light up on Doppler radar, but the trend appears to be a sharp cut off of the accumulating snow from about Alexandria to Rice lake.

A broad band of more than six inches of snow is likely, with a consensus forecast that more than ten inches of snow may occur in the Twin Cities.

From the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the NWS.

We were about due, with less than an inch of snow so far this month at both Minneapolis/St. Paul and Eau Claire. The average snowfall for February in the Twin Cities is around eight inches.

National Weather Service Twin Cities Winter Storm Updates.

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Major winter storm this weekend! 6" to 12" totals?

Posted at 4:41 PM on February 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Friday late PM update:

The latest NAM run suggests that though we may see a few snow showers Saturday, the bulk of the accumulating "system snow" may hold off until after midnight. It still looks like the heaviest snow will fall during the morning and daytime hours Sunday.

PH

******Original post 2:50pm Friday******

Whoever hit the "pause" button on winter a few weeks ago just hit "play" again.

It looks like our break from winter storms will end abruptly this weekend.

After a week of differing solutions on the potential for weekend rain or snow, forecast models Friday have come into agreement that a major winter storm is likely in much of central & southern Minnesota this weekend.

Winter storm watches have been hoisted for much of Minnesota. They will likely be upgraded to warnings by Saturday morning.

Winter storm watches posted.
(click for bigger image)

Here's the latest thinking from the weather lab on the timing, duration and intensity from this weekend's winter weather event.

The System & Track:

A deep trof of low pressure in the Rockies will spin up a surface low in Colorado Saturday. The low is forecast to deepen near Omaha, then move quickly east into Iowa late Sunday. This is an excellent track for producing heavy snow in Minnesota given the right temperature profile.

Precipitation Timing & Type:

It looks like snow will begin to bust out in patchy fashion Saturday PM in Minnesota, with a more widespread consistent snow shield developing and expanding Saturday evening and overnight. The bulk of the heaviest snow should come after midnight Saturday night/ Sunday through the day Sunday.

The latest model trends indicate the storm's thermal profile will yield mostly snow in Minnesota, with some ice/sleet mixing in from the metro south at times, and maybe some rain near the Iowa border and along the I-90 corridor.

There is still the potential for a shift in the storm's track that could bring more ice into southern Minnesota and even the metro...which could reduce overall snowfall totals accordingly.

Snowfall Totals:

We're still a good 24 to 30+ hours out from the bulk of the steady snowfall in the metro area, so there are still 3-4 "critical" model runs before the snow flies that will (hopefully) help nail down snowfall totals. But here's my best estimate at this point.

The peak snowfall intensity appears to be slated from about 2am Sunday to 3pm Sunday, with snow tapering off Sunday evening. During this window there could be several hours of 1"+ per hour snowfall rates. Isolated thundersnow is possible with this system.

I expect a broad area of 6" to 12" snowfall totals by Sunday evening in much of central and southern Minnesota. Within this broad area, there could be some higher totals to 14".

Modles cranking out 6" to 12" totals for MSP Airport.
(Click to enlarge)

Cities included in the potential 6" to 12" (with isolated 14") snowfall range include The Twin Cities, Redwood Falls, Willmar, Mankato, St. Cloud, Hinckley, Eau Claire and maybe as far south as Rochester.

NAM model paints heavy snowfall band right through central Minnesota.
(click to enlarge)

A general area of 3" to 6"+ is possible from Fargo east through Brainerd & Duluth. Also a band of 3" to 6" mixed with ice is possible along the I-90 corridor and into northern Iowa. Anybody planning travel south into Iowa should be prepared for significant icing conditions on roads!

Primary Impacts:

This will be a wet snow (7:1 snow:water ratio) Saturday night into early Sunday, and may be drier late in the event. Travel will become increasingly difficult either way overnight Saturday and especially Sunday. Expect strong winds Sunday from the northeast at 15 to 25 mph+ which will produce a wind-driven snowfall event with reduced visibility in open areas.

Bottom Line:

The first major winter storm in weeks will slam Minnesota Saturday night & Sunday.
Prepare accordingly!

We are staffing up and will have extra blog posts and weather updates on MPR News stations with me and Craig Edwards through the weekend.

Be safe!

PH

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Chicago "Snowzilla" Update: Civil Emergency, Groundhog Day cancelled!

Posted at 8:07 AM on February 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

The madness continues in Chicago today, even as the storm begins to pull away and move east. Blizzard warnings remain in effect until 3pm today. Radars show a plume of lake effect snow spraying the city on the storm's back side.

Chicago lakefront battered by wind and snow.

Some snowfall reports include:

20.6" St. Charles
20.0" Beach Park
20.0" Ottawa
18.5" Elk Grove Village
18.0" Waukegan
17.3" Chicago O'Hare
15.4" Chicago Midway

The storm is now the 5th biggest snowstorm on record in Chicago...with snow still falling.

Chicago

Since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 41 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 19 years. The closest back to back 10 inch snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 21-23, 2005. These snowfall statistics are through the 2004-2005 winter season.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
17.3 inches February 1-2, 2011
16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

High winds tore off part of the roof at Wrigley Field at the storms height. Sound familiar?

You can watch the latest Chicago NWS weather briefing here.

PH

Early Morning Update: (posted 2:35 am February 2nd)

They're calling it "Snowzilla 2011" on WGN Radio in Chicago. If the storm was a rapper, they might call it "Snowtorious B-I-G."

Conditions in and around Chicago are described as "life threatening" by local emergency officials. As many as 95,000 homes are without power early Wednesday morning.

There are reports of people being stranded in their cars for up to 8 hours! "Warming buses" are circling the city to rescue stranded motorists.

Chicago Fire is using snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists on Lakeshore Drive, which has been closed as snow and high waves from Lake Michigan pound "The Drive." Photographer (and former WGN-TV colleague) Dave Weaver reports as many as a hundred cars may be abandoned on Lakeshore Drive.

Here's the story from my former station WGN-TV.

WGN-TV "Skilling Cam" shows a desolate Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago. Click the live feed below.

 
Snowfall totals over 16" (and counting) and winds gusting to 67 mph are hammering the city. Storm totals over 20" are forecast by late today.

Here are some of the latest storm reports from Chicago NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
140 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011

0135 AM SNOW OAK PARK 41.89N 87.79W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
STORM TOTAL

0132 AM SNOW CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
02/02/2011 M16.0 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
EVANSTON MAIN AND CHICAGO.

0115 AM SNOW 7 N LA SALLE 41.44N 89.09W
02/02/2011 E13.0 INCH LA SALLE IL EMERGENCY MNGR
E13 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WINDS E20S WITH
GUSTS E30S. 4 FEET DRIFTS. LOCATION I80 AND I39 CROSSWAY.

1200 AM HEAVY SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W
02/02/2011 M13.6 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS
13.6 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE DAY...10.6 INCHES BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
940 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /1040 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

CHICAGO LAKEFRONT 67
CHICAGO OHARE 61
WAUKEGAN HARBOR 61
AURORA 59
ROMEOVILLE 59
CHICAGO MIDWAY 58
PONTIAC 58
BURNS HARBOR 54
WEST CHICAGO 54
LASALLE/PERU 53
WAUKEGAN 53
JOLIET 52
DEKALB 52

Lake County (Chicago's northern suburbs) has issued a civil emergency message closing all roads in the county. I lived in Lake County for several years working as a meteorologist in the Chicago area at WGN-TV & Weather Command, and I do not recall this ever happening before. My former colleague Tom Skilling at WGN has his hands full with this one!

Here's the message as relayed by the Chicago NWS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
201 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

ALL RESOURCES ARE BEING USED TO REACH STRANDED MOTORISTS. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DOING SO WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK.

This is truly an epic blizzard for Chicago, and this massive "Groundhog Day Snowmageddon" storm will cover hundreds of thousands of square miles and stretch all the way to Boston by day's end.

Groundhog Day cancelled!

On a lighter note, the storm is so intense that they've cancelled some Groundhog Day festivities in Woodstock, IL north of Chicago near the Wisconsin border. "Willie The Groundhog" will stay inside today. Much of the excellent movie Groundhog Day (Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell) was filmed in Woodstock.

What does it mean when the Groundhog stays inside? I shudder to think of the consequences!

I'll have more updates on MPR News Morning Edition at 7:45am.

PH

***original post 5:30pm Tuesday***

The blizzard has hit Illinois and the Chicagoland area with full force Tuesday. Snowfall is coming down at the rate of 1-2"+ per hour.

Check out some of the storm reports coming in to the Chicagoland NWS office in Romeoville, IL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S OAK PARK 41.87N 87.79W
02/01/2011 M1.5 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FALL PAST HOUR 12 MIN. BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE EIGHTH OF A MILE.

0338 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NNE POPLAR GROVE 42.42N 88.79W
02/01/2011 E2.0 INCH BOONE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN LAST 2 HOURS. COCORAHS OBSERVER

0345 PM BLIZZARD ESE PAXTON 40.46N 88.10W
02/01/2011 FORD IL TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTREME BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 YARDS OR LESS. BEGAN AS SNOW NOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

You get the idea. This storm is hitting hard and fast, and it will only get worse through tonight and into Wednesday.

Here's the Tuesday late PM briefing from the Chicago NWS.

You can follow the storm's progress here.

The storm is huge...and will affect as many as 100 million Americans as it marches east.

Potent surface low pressure intensifying overnight.

Warnings for the storm are in effect for at least 20 states.

The storm may produce a 2,000 mile swath of snowfall with totals over 1 foot from Oklahoma to Boston!

PH

MSP: Snowiest winter in 19 years? Chicago: Epic blizzard imminent

Posted at 7:41 AM on February 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Boy did we get lucky on this one.

Monday's long duration snowfall left behind a trail of respectable snow totals...but nothing like what the next phase of the storm will deliver to Chicago tonight.

Officially 4.7" at MSP Airport recorded 4.7" of snowfall with the latest system. That puts the season to date snowfall at MSP at a healthy, ice dam dripping 60.4". Here are the relative numbers for MSP.

Season snowfall: 60.4"
Average to date: 34.1"
Departure from avg: +26.3"
January snowfall: 17" (+3.5")

If we maintain our current snowfall pace the rest of the winter we are on track for about 80" of snow. That would approach the 5th snowiest winter on record. It would also be the snowiest winter in 19 years. The last time we had 80"+ was in 1991-'92 (Halloween Mega-Storm) when we stacked up 84.1" of snowfall!

Here's the final NWS tally on Monday's snowfall:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

SNOW AMOUNTS LISTED BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS
FOR THE EVENT. PLEASE NOTE THE TIME OF THE REPORTS.

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 S MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0518 PM
9.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0516 PM
8.00 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0538 PM
8.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0445 PM
8.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0332 PM
7.00 9 SW GRANITE FALLS MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0421 PM
6.50 MINNESOTA LAKE MN FARIBAULT 1011 PM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0830 PM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0500 PM
6.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0253 PM
6.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0233 PM
6.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0212 PM
5.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0800 PM
4.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1200 AM
4.70 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 AM
4.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 AM
4.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1000 PM
4.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0557 PM
4.40 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 1000 PM
4.20 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0742 PM
4.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1025 PM
4.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0900 PM
3.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0500 PM
3.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 1208 PM
3.50 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 1059 PM
3.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0600 PM
3.40 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0528 PM
3.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1200 AM
3.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0500 PM
3.00 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0115 PM
2.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1200 AM
2.80 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0444 PM
2.80 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0120 PM
2.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0518 PM
1.00 2 NW GILMAN MN BENTON 0253 PM
0.90 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0550 PM

Arctic Comeback:

Arctic air is sliding south again in the wake of Monday's snow event. Temperatures plunged into the -20 and even to -35 near the center of the arctic air mass in North Dakota and eastern Montana overnight.

The chill will keep Minnesota in the deep freeze (and hopefully stop my ice dam covered window sills from dripping temporarily) through mid-week before temperatures moderate by late week.

Brief late-week "thaw?"

Temperatures will rebound Thursday into Friday, as milder Pacific air begins to move in from the west. 20s should return Thursday...with lower 30s possible in southern Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

Another shot of arctic air is due next week.

Bigger thaw ahead?

There are signs that a more substantial thaw could emerge for the Upper Midwest by late next week into the following weekend. Indications are the upper air pattern may shift, and the polar vortex over Hudson Bay may slide east toward Greenland temporarily.

That could allow milder winds form the Pacific Ocean to take hold over the upper Midwest. If the pattern takes firm hold...it could mean a few days of 30s and even a shot at 40 in Minnesota by the weekend of February 12th.

Stay tuned.

Chicago: Biggest blizzard in history?

A major "snow bomb" is racing toward Chicago today and tonight. A powerful storm is taking aim with what meteorologists refer to as some incredible "dynamics." The storm has the potential to become the biggest in Chicago history.

Here is some of what the Windy City can expect tonight and tomorrow according to the Chicago NWS.

-Snowfall totals over 20"?
-Snowfall rates of 2" to 4" per hour
-Thundersnow
-Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph
-5 to 10 FOOT drifts
-Waves as high as 25 FEET on Lake Michigan
-Severe lakeshore flooding

Blizzard warnings are flying for the entire Chicagoland area.

Check out some of the snowpacolyptic language from the Chicago NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
421 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 /521 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011/

...WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND SURVIVAL TIPS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO ADVISES YOU TO BE PREPARED
FOR THE IMPENDING SEVERE WINTER STORM....COMPLETING ALL STORM
PREPARATIONS BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY THE LATEST.

WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND HIGHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF POWER
OUTAGES. OTHER PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL LOSS OF HEAT...HOME
TELEPHONE SERVICE AND A SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES.

YOU SHOULD HAVE AVAILABLE...
A FLASH LIGHT AND EXTRA BATTERIES...
A BATTERY POWER RADIO TO RECEIVE EMERGENCY INFORMATION...
EXTRA FOOD...WATER...MEDICINE AND BABY ITEMS...
FIRST AID SUPPLIES...
HEATING FUEL AND AN EMERGENCY HEATING SOURCE...
A FIRE EXTINGUISHER AND SMOKE DETECTOR.

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT. THESE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE AND
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT OVER WASH FLOODING FROM HIGH WAVES.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

This looks like an epic blizzard for Chicago. Only 3 storms in history have produced over 20" of snow in Chicago. 23" fell in January of 1967, and The "Mayor Jane Byrne" blizzard (20.3") slammed Chicago and changed the political landscape in 1979.

This storm will be Chicago's version of a Nor'easter on the shores of Lake Michigan. With potential wave heights reaching 25 feet severe lakeshore flooding is expected, and waves will likely crash over Lakeshore Drive. I covered similar events working for WGN in Chicago in the 90s where I broadcast live from near the Chess Pavilion as waves pounded "The Drive."

The storm will rage on and move east this week...and could dump 1-2 feet of snow from Chicago through Detroit and all the way east into Upstate New York and Boston!

I know I'm feeling better now about shoveling a paltry 4" from my walkway today!

PH

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Snow Tapers: Wind & cold next

Posted at 5:45 PM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Evening Update:

Bottom Line: Expect snowfall to gradually taper from west to east overnight. Most areas will pick up another 1" to 2" overnight, with some 3"+ totals in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Expect roads to be slick though tonight and probably into Tuesday morning rush. With any luck, the morning commute might be a little better Tuesday...but I still expect some icy spots as temperatures begin to fall overnight.

Wind will become an increasing factor in open areas as winds increase into the 15 to 25 mph range...especially in southwest Minnesota where winter storm warnings remain in effect.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest individual snowfall reports-Latest snowfall summary

Take care with travel into Tuesday morning!

PH

Update 4:30pm:

Radas showing a few holes in snowfall now west of metro. Snowfall continues elsewhere.

Bottom Line: (What you need to know now) Radars and surface reports showing areas of snow continue from Fargo to Duluth and from St. Cloud and the Twin Cities southward into Iowa. It will be a snowy and messy PM commute, with treacherous driving conditions in many areas.

Some impressive snowfall totals coming in now as the snow continues to pile up in southern Minnesota. Check out some of these updated totals as of 3pm:

Madelia 9.5"
Winthrop 8"
Benson 6.5"
St. James, Glencoe & Winnebago 6"

Here is the latest summary from NWS as of just after noon.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.20 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0906 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1106 AM
5.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1000 AM
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1046 AM
3.60 MINNEAPOLIS(MSP AIRPORT) MN HENNEPIN 1156 AM
3.60 CHANHASSEN (NWS) MN CARVER 1156 AM
3.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0945 AM
3.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
3.10 BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
3.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0900 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0813 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
2.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 1011 AM
2.80 5 WNW ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0909 AM

Snow map through noon...does not reflect additional totals since.

Expect slow travel times through this evening.

PH

Midday Update: Messy PM commute ahead

Posted at 11:00 AM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Storms, Winter, Winter storms

Our active Monday snowmaker continues. Winter storm warnings and advisories contuine in effect through tonight.

Bottom Line: Looking ahead to the PM rush hour, it still appears it will be a messy and potentially slow commute. Plan accordingly for extra travel time through this evening.

There are a few breaks in the snow showing up on radar, while snow continues over much of southern Minnesota today. Here are some tools to track the storm through Midday, with an eye toward the PM commute.

-Latest snow totals
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-MNDOT live traffic cams and road info

It still looks like snowfall totals will end up somewhere in the 3" to 6" range for the metro by Tuesday morning. Higher totals between 6" and 12" could pile up in southern Minnesota along the Minnesota River and I-90 corridor.

Storm aims east:

Minnesota is just the appetizer for this massive storm. It looks like this massive system will make national headlines for the next two days. Snowfall totals could reach 1 to 2 FEET from near Chicago through Detroit to Upstate New York and Boston.

Stay safe and weather another "snow bomb" in the extreme winter of 2011.

PH

Snow Continues: Messy Midday & PM commute ahead

Posted at 9:10 AM on January 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter, Winter storms

Our Monday snow mess continues right on schedule.

Bottom Line: (what you need to know right now) Expect snow to continue through today and tonight, a messy PM rush, and another 2" to 4" in most areas, with as much as 3" to 6" additional in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.

Updated snow totals as of 9am:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.20 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
3.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.10 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
3.10 BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0630 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0813 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0804 AM
2.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.40 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0855 AM
2.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0853 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
2.20 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
2.00 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0759 AM
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
2.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0700 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 1 SW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.70 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0753 AM
1.60 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 SPRING VALLEY WI PIERCE 0800 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.00 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0700 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
1.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 0500 AM
0.90 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Heaviest snow totals should fall in southern Minnesota.

Snow so far: Here are some snow totals as of early Monday morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
744 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
5.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0745 AM
3.90 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0551 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.20 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0642 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0700 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0526 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
2.80 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0616 AM
2.70 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0616 AM
STORM TOTAL.
2.20 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
2.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
2.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.10 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR MEASURED AT THE
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0737 AM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0724 AM
2.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0714 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0230 AM
1.90 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0602 AM
1.80 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
1.60 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
1.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0505 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
1.30 4 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
1.30 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
1.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0730 AM
1.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
1.00 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
1.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0600 AM
0.80 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
0.70 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0435 AM

Latest radar trends:

Radar and surface reports showing moderate snow from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border. Visibilities under 1 mile in many locations...corresponding to snowfall rates around 1/2" per hour. There may be a reduction in snowfall intensity at times today.

Long duration: It looks like snowfall will continue through tonight and taper early Tuesday. The long duration is due to what we call "overrunning" in meteorology. That is to say a broad area of lift generated when warmer air "overruns" colder air near the surface. This "semi-stable" situation can produce large areas of general snowfall.

"Big Foot" storm:

This storm has a huge geographical footprint covering thousands of square miles. The storm will produce hefty snowfall totals from the Dakotas through Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois straight east into Michigan and through New York into New England.

Massive snow totals?

It appears Minnesota will get off lucky with this system. As much as 10" to 20" could fall in Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, and Detroit all the way east into New York.

Another messy PM rush:

It could look a lot like this again this afternoon on metro freeways.

Stay safe on the roads today!

PH

Storm tracking further west

Posted at 11:16 AM on December 31, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

Surface pressure pattern and temperatures depicted by the Rapid Update Cycle model valid at 9pm.

The center of low pressure that was expected to track from eastern Kansas to eastern Minnesota today, now appears to be on a path that takes the center of the low even further west.

This results in a slight modification of the forecast. The heaviest snow of more than six inches remains likely in the Red River Valley, but the winds may not be as strong due to the close proximity of the low pressure center. However, when the storm center begins to pull away later tonight the winds will blow and drift the snow in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

For the Twin Cities there will be a quick-hitting burst of sleet and snow this afternoon. A strong push of drier air at mid levels of the atmosphere could choke off the precipitation this evening. Nonetheless, there may be enough snow and sleet to ice up the roadways this afternoon and early evening.

CE

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Storm two in the que

Posted at 7:08 AM on December 31, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

The path of the second low pressure center is now projected slightly further west. This puts the heaviest snow in western Minnesota and the Dakotas later today and tonight.

Looking for the silver lining, we are in the midst of a little lull. Winds have dropped off in western Minnesota this morning and only a small patch of residual snow was depicted on radar in far northeast Minnesota. However, temperatures have fallen sharply from readings in the the forties last evenng over southeast Minnesota.

Moisture is gathering in Iowa at daybreak. Snow will breakout in southwest Minnestoa and southeast South Dakota during the late morning. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain is on tap for the Twin Cities

With the track of the low moving further west, the bulk of the moisture will miss the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin. Total snowfall accumulation around the metro may approach an inch or two. Let's see what falls from the sky this afternoon.

NOAA's graphic on the most likely area to receive eight inches of snow or more with this storm.

Link to NWS Chanhassen Winter Storm page.

Snow abates late, but storm two soon to follow

Posted at 4:21 PM on December 30, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

Most likely area to receive greater than eight inches of snow with the next system Friday night. Heavy snow is expected earlier in the day Friday in southwest and west central Minnesota.

While the first system continues to dump heavy snow from Moorhead to Ely tonight, the second low center will be born in Kansas during the darkness hours. The projected track of this low center and the upper air dynamics should result in another bout of heavy snow from Marshall and Fargo/Moorhead to Little Falls and International Falls.

The Twin Cities will see the cold air knife into the region tonight, but the cold rain will be cut off as well. I am looking for lull in the preciptation until Friday morning. While the models are taking the brunt of the moisture to the east of Minneapolis/St. Paul, there should be a glancing blow that could produce one to four inches of snow Friday into Friday evening for the Metro.

Surface weather map of pressure pattern and precipitation at 6PM CST on Friday.

Wet roadways will likely ice over as the temperatures drop tonight. Travel as conditions warrant.

Winter weather information from the Grand Forks NWS Office.
CE

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Blizzard Conditions Fargo/Moorhead

Posted at 3:13 PM on December 30, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Click on map for larger view. The numbers in red to the upper left of the observation site indicate the temperature. You see a zero at Grand Forks.

Surface pressure pattern and reports clearly showing a convergence of air masses in the state. The hammer has come down hard in portions of the Red River Valley. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for an area of southeast North Dakota, east central South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

Fergus Falls has seen their temperature drop from 36 degrees earlier today into the teens with increasing north winds. Visibility was down to a quarter mile in snow and blowing snow. Blinding snow was falling at Fargo. The Blizzard Warning extends into Detroit Lakes and Bemidji.

Colder air will be changing the rain to snow in portions of central Minnesota this evening.
If you have travel plans, please check the latest road conditions before heading out to western and northern Minnesota.

A second storm is on track to pound the same region on Friday and into New Year's eve.
CE

Clouds, fog and precipitation encroaching on region

Posted at 3:28 PM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

IR satellite imagery from late afternoon. Layered moisture is steadily progressing east from the Plains. Low level moisture in the form of dense fog and drizzle is developing over Iowa and southern Minnesota.

The first system is more of a coming attraction, with four to eight inches of snow likely in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota tonight through midday on Thursday.

I expect the main feature to begin late morning on Friday and continue into the start of the New Year. The band of heaviest snow, more than six inches, should stay to the west of the Twin Cities. However, snow is likely over eastern Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening.

Here is a composite surface forecast track of the two separate low centers. The low center coming out of Kansas is the stronger system that will be over far western Wisconsin on Friday night.

CE

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Coming into focus

Posted at 12:44 PM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Location of the low pressure center from GFS model valid at 6PM on Friday. This storm will be in the wake of the storm that will produce several inches of snow on Thursday in northwest Minnesota.

The models are coming into agreement on the path of the second storm system that will impact Minnesota on Friday into Friday night. Based on the projected path of this low center and the associated dynamics in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, heavy snow is likely from about Redwood Falls to Grand Rapids and International Falls.

There should be a break in the heavy precipitation late Thursday and early Friday morning. Currently the band of heaviest snow should position itself west of the Twin Cities on Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be cold enough for snow in the Metro on New Year's Eve.

One at a time

Posted at 6:52 AM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

The pre-game festivities are about to come to an end. Pieces are beginning to come together for the first round of wintry weather. The primary target area for the initial storm will be northwestern Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Heavy snow may accumulate more than six inches north and west from Fargo to Baudette later tonight and Thursday.

Follow the details on this developing weather from the NWS Office in Grand Forks.

Early morning IR satellite imagery paints a large swath of dense cloudcover racing across the western US. You will also notice the enhanced clouds positioned over the middle Mississippi Valley. This moisture will meet up with the energy coming from the west to create the wintry mix in Minnesota tonight and Thursday.

For the Twin Cities, look for temperatures to hoover close to thirty-two degrees overnight. Light freezing drizzle and fog may create travel difficulties later this evening. Drizzle is likely to turn to rain on Thursday with temperatures above the thawing point.

With snow in northwest Minnesota and rain in southeast Minnesota on Thursday, there will likely be a transition area composed of some freezing rain from about Little Falls to the Iron Range.

A lull in the precipitation intensity still appears on the weather maps for Thursday night into early Friday.

I'll fill you in on the New Year's Eve event later this morning.

Here's the preliminary view of the upcomng two weather systems from the Chanhassen NWS Office.
CE

Tracking two low pressure centers

Posted at 4:59 PM on December 28, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

This forecast map from the GFS at about the five thousand foot level indicates that the dew point temperature of plus two to plus four degrees Celsius over a large part of eastern Minnesota suports rain at noon on Thursday. From about Brainerd to Duluth northward the surface temperatures will hoover close to thirty-two degrees.

Here is the latest concensus track for two surface low pressure systems. System one has the potential to dump four to seven inches of snow from Grand Forks to Roseau, including Thief River Falls on Thursday.

The second low tracking towards Kansas City on Thursday could turn north and produce a band of heavy snow close to the Twin Cities to Duluth on Friday into New Year's Eve.
CE

Driving force

Posted at 6:52 AM on December 28, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Image of the GFS forecast position of the jet stream at 6PM CST on Wednesday. The strong wind maxima indicated by the red color, exceed 100KTS. One jet streak is about to sweep into northern Mexico, while another stronger jet is diving southeast off the Pacific Coast.

These jet streaks play a big role in spinning-up the weather at the surface. They work to distribute thremal energy in the atmosphere, plunging cold air south, or transporting warmer air north.

For the time being enjoy the rather quiet weather pattern the next thirty-six to forty hours. A push of milder air over the dense snowpack has the potential to initiate some freezing drizzle and fog on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Temperatures should climb above the thawing point on Thursday, thus precipitation should be in the form of just rain in southeast Minnesota during the afternoon.

Here's a graphical forecast from the Chanhassen NWS issued Tuesday morning. Note that they indicate even the second low pressure may be close enough to eastern Minnesota to produce a mixture of rain and snow in the Twin Cities on New Year's Eve.

CE

Perhaps a one-two punch

Posted at 4:00 PM on December 27, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Here is a pretty good concensus graphic from NOAA on where the greatest potential for more than four inches of snow is likely to fall from Wednesday night through Thursday.

This dump of moisture is from what is likely to be Storm One.

To the southeast of this region there will be a band of sleet and freezing rain in MInnesota. In far southeast Minnesota the precipitation is likely to change to a cold rain.

Again from the GFS model that paints the first low in western Minnesota on Thursday (see previous blog -Taste of a Thaw), here is a graphical forecast of a secondary low which may form as the colder air pentetrates the state on Friday.

The forecast Image is of the surface pressure pattern and temperatures valid 6PM CST New Year's Eve. The track of the center of low pressure would favor a period of moderate to heavy snow over the state on Friday and into New Year's Eve.

This two-in-one storm system is a work in progress. I'll keep looking for weather clues to solve this puzzle being constructed by Mother Nature. The evolution of of two distinct low pressure centers is not that rare. The second storm will feed off both the remaining mild air in Illinois and the instrusion of much colder air through the Dakotas.
CE

Band of moderate snow over the Twin Cities

Posted at 9:35 PM on December 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

Radar operating in what is known as CLEAR AIR MODE. White color depicts band of heavy snow.

The band of snow that was just south of Interstate 94 at 6PM CST, dumped a quick three inches of snow around Glenwood. This band of snow has translated east and is now dumping generous snow on the portions of the metro as of 9PM CST.

The Twin Cities has now been included in the Winter Weather Advisory where snow amounts could locally approach four to five inches by very late tonight.

Looking at this radar snapshot from around 930PM CST, you can see a bright band of heavy snow directly over Minneapolis and South St. Paul. A hole in the snowfall is positioned southwest of the metro.

Snow is likely to fill in over all of southwest Minnesota by midnight. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until Friday morning for that portion of the state south of Interstate 94.

Your link to the latest weather information from the Chanhassen Office of the NWS, including a link to road information.
CE

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Travel woes, close to home

Posted at 6:52 AM on December 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Mother Nature continues to favor snowfall for Minnesota. This time the bulk of the snow coming in the nex twenty-four to thirty-six hours is painted from eastern South Dakota into south central Minnesota.

Snow accumulations of three to five inches are possible in areas that include Montevideo to Redwood Falls and on to Albert Lea.

NOAA NCEP greatest probability of more than four inches by 10am on Friday.

This does not appear to be a major system, but it will produce enough snow to make travel difficult. Most of the snow is likely to remain south of Milwaukee, Wi and the Chicagoland area.
CE

Quick Hitter: First snow, then ice

Posted at 9:00 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Fast & furious. That's the nature of our latest "quick hitting" snowstorm.

Now the next phase...ice. Expect slick roads and sidewalks to linger Tuesday morning as freezing drizzle falls overnight!

As quickly as the snow moved in Monday, it has exited much of Minnesota.

Snow lingers in northern Minnesota, and now snow and freezing drizzle (snizzle!) are the next feature of our storm for the metro and much of southern Minnesota. As the icy coating builds on TCF Bank field turf, the Vikings-Bears game is beginning to look more like a hockey game at the X with each passing minute.

Large multi-state snow band shifting east overnight.

Pending any additional snow overnight (the radar may flare up with a few more snow showers), overall storm snowfall totals range from around 3" at the low end near Long Prairie & St. Cloud...to 7.5" at Madelia & Ellendale on the high end.

Metro totals are still rolling in, but so far range from 4" in Plymouth, to as high as 6.1" at Prior Lake.

The Huttner weather lab in Deephaven and the MSP Airport both report 4.5" of fresh snowfall.

Here are the snowfall totals as of early Monday evening.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
616 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 20...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0345 PM
7.00 1 ESE OWATONNA MN STEELE 0500 PM
7.00 NNW ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0328 PM
6.10 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
6.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0554 PM
6.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0510 PM
6.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0435 PM
6.00 2 NNE MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0410 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0300 PM
5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0455 PM
5.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0540 PM
5.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 PM
5.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0551 PM
5.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0242 PM
4.60 1 E BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0549 PM
4.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0607 PM
4.50 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
TAKEN AT MINNEAPOLIS - ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
4.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0357 PM
4.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1231 PM
4.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0541 PM
4.20 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0531 PM
3.90 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0540 PM
3.80 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0500 PM
3.70 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0450 PM
3.30 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0515 PM
3.30 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0500 PM
3.30 1 W EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0408 PM
3.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0415 PM
3.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0404 PM
2.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0557 PM
2.50 ST JOSEPH MN STEARNS 0420 PM
2.30 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0335 PM
2.10 HAM LAKE MN ANOKA 0510 PM
2.00 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0559 PM
1.90 WAITE PARK MN STEARNS 0354 PM
1.00 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0551 PM
1.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0330 PM
0.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0430 PM

Conditions should improve for Tuesday AM rush hour. Then, the forecast models are still at odds about potential snow for Thursday. One favored model steers the system south into Iowa and southern Minnesota. Another throws moisture north into the Twin Cities, with a potential for accumulation. It's too early to tell which solution is right.

Stay safe overnight on still slick roadways!

PH

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Metro Nowcast: Snow tapers 6-8pm

Posted at 5:27 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

A quick micro-update on snow trends.

Radar and satellite trends and surface reports indicate the back edge of the snow is just west of the metro...moving quickly east. Snow is beginning to taper off in the west metro, and will diminish from west to east between now (west) and 8pm. (east metro)

Latest trends indicate snowfall should taper off before kickoff time at TCF Bank Stadium for the Vikings MNF game!

In the mean time heavy snow has made for a horrible, near gridlock rush hour in the metro.

Chaos at I-394 & Plymouth Road.

Thankfully the end of the heavy snow is in sight.

PH

Storm Rages: Storm peak next 3-6 hours

Posted at 4:15 PM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

4:15pm Update:

The storm is nearing peak intensity now from the Dakotas all the way into Wisconsin.

Let's take a tour of conditions across the storm.

Eastern Dakotas:

Winter storm warnings continue for eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley into Minnesota. Latest snowfall totals here.

I-94 from Alexandria through the Twin Cities:

The storm continues to rage along I-94. Heavy snow "banding" is evident on doppler radar just south and into the metro, indicating snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour in some areas.

Expect peak snowfall intensities of 1" per hour between now and 8pm.

Here are some updated snowfall totals from Twin Cities NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM SNOW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
12/20/2010 M4.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1239 PM SNOW 2 SW PRIOR LAKE 44.71N 93.46W
12/20/2010 M0.6 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1242 PM SNOW RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
12/20/2010 M0.4 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN PAST HOUR

1249 PM SNOW MADELIA 44.05N 94.42W
12/20/2010 M6.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0147 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/20/2010 E4.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM SNOW RICE 45.75N 94.23W
12/20/2010 M1.2 INCH BENTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0158 PM SNOW LAKEVILLE 44.68N 93.24W
12/20/2010 E1.5 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0159 PM SNOW RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0201 PM SNOW 1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON 45.06N 93.22W
12/20/2010 M1.3 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0214 PM SNOW NEW MARKET 44.57N 93.35W
12/20/2010 M2.0 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0240 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
12/20/2010 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0241 PM SNOW 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS 44.91N 93.29W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0242 PM SNOW SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W
12/20/2010 M5.0 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM SNOW JANESVILLE 44.12N 93.71W
12/20/2010 M6.0 INCH WASECA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0319 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
12/20/2010 M1.8 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM SNOW NNW ST CLAIR 44.08N 93.86W
12/20/2010 M7.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 830 AM MIXED WITH SLEET DURING PAST HOUR

0330 PM SNOW NORTH MANKATO 44.18N 94.03W
12/20/2010 M6.0 INCH NICOLLET MN BROADCAST MEDIA

0330 PM SNOW RUSH CITY 45.68N 92.97W
12/20/2010 M1.0 INCH CHISAGO MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0345 PM SNOW MADELIA 44.05N 94.42W
12/20/2010 M7.5 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0346 PM SNOW 2 SW DELANO 45.02N 93.81W
12/20/2010 M3.0 INCH WRIGHT MN NWS EMPLOYEE

IN PAST 6 HOURS

0354 PM SNOW WAITE PARK 45.55N 94.22W
12/20/2010 M1.9 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0357 PM SNOW WINTHROP 44.54N 94.36W
12/20/2010 M4.5 INCH SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW 2 W PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.47W
12/20/2010 M3.3 INCH SCOTT MN NWS EMPLOYEE

Mankato-Rochester-La Crosse:

Heavy snow is also moving through south central and southeast Minnesota. Expect peak snowfall, with visibilities down to 1/4 mile at times during the next 6 hours.

Here are the latest snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. (Rochester-La Crosse area)

Stay safe as the snow continues to pile up this evening!

PH

3pm Update:

"A snowplow pulls up to the site on the Bath Road on Monday during a snowstorm where an Albert Lea school bus slid off the shoulder and into the ditch. A short bus came and took the children back to town. A Freeborn County sheriff's deputy waits by the bus."
Courtesy Tim Engstrom/Albert Lea Tribune

Snow coverage and intensity are cranking up as expected. So far in the metro between 1" and 2" has fallen. I measured 2" at the Deephaven Weather Lab at 3pm.

Twin Cities doppler shrouded in snow. Notice the brighter bands of heavier snow moving in.

Southwest Minnesota has already piled up between 3" and 6"+ in some areas.

Visibilities are between 3/4 mile and 1/2 mile in the metro...which corresponds to snowfall rates around .5" to .75" per hour.

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES LGT SNOW 22 18 85 E17 29.89F VSB 3/4 WCI 8
ST PAUL SNOW N/A N/A N/A SE10 29.93F VSB 1/2
CRYSTAL SNOW 23 19 85 E9 29.89F VSB 1/2 WCI 13
BLAINE LGT SNOW 21 18 86 E9 29.91S VSB 3/4 WCI 11
EDEN PRAIRIE SNOW 22 19 89 E12 29.87F VSB 1/2 WCI 10
LAKEVILLE LGT SNOW 19 19 100 E12 29.88S VSB 3/4 WCI 7
SOUTH ST PAUL LGT SNOW 22 19 87 E9 29.91F VSB 3/4 WCI 12
LAKE ELMO LGT SNOW 21 18 86 E9 29.93S VSB 1 WCI 11

Slow snowy travel again. This is Highway 394 at Penn Ave just west of downtown Minneapolis.

MNDOT Update: Numerous incidents now in the metro. Details here.

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time
422 Stall on Mainline I-494 EB @ Penn Ave 1 lane blocked Mon @ 15:10
315 Crash on Mainline U.S.169 SB @ Valley Park Dr Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:50
715 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ T.H.61 Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:08
673 Crash on Mainline T.H.10 EB E of Co Rd J Just cleared Mon @ 14:47
213 Crash on Mainline T.H.100 NB @ 50th St EB Just cleared Mon @ 14:34
6 Crash on Exit I-35E NB @ T.H.36 WB Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 15:00
327 Stall on Exit U.S.169 NB @ Minnetonka Blvd Just cleared Mon @ 13:59
280 Crash on Mainline T.H.280 SB @ Territorial Rd Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:29
631 Crash on Mainline I-35W SB Left lane blocked Mon @ 14:21
109 Crash on Mainline T.H.77 SB @ T.H.62 EB Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 13:43
723 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ Stillwater Blvd Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 13:37
322 Crash on Exit U.S.169 NB @ I-494 WB Left lane partially blocked Mon @ 14:46
281 Crash on Mainline T.H.280 SB @ Energy Park Dr Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 14:30

Updated: Mon Dec 20 15:17

Here are some totals from NWS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1249 PM
4.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1231 PM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0147 PM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1246 PM
UPDATED TOTAL
2.50 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1150 AM
SINCE 830 AM.
1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0158 PM
1.30 1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON MN RAMSEY 0201 PM
1.20 RICE MN BENTON 0156 PM
1.00 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0159 PM
1.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1047 AM
OVER PAST 2.5 HOURS
0.60 2 SW PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1239 PM
0.50 SLEEPY EYE MN BROWN 0823 AM
0.40 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 1242 PM
IN PAST HOUR

Redwood Falls and Olivia have heavy snow with visibilities at 1/4 mile! This reflects snowfall accumuation rates of an inch or more per hour in southwest MN!

REDWOOD FALLS HVY SNOW 26 24 92 E12G18 29.79F VSB 1/4 WCI 16
OLIVIA SNOW 27 23 86 E12G17 29.82R VSB 1/4 WCI 16

PH

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Storm Update: Snow intensity increasing

Posted at 10:35 AM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Our 7th winter storm in 6 weeks is here.

Snow has arrived in the metro, and will pick up in intensity as we head through the afternoon. Bands of heavier snowfall intensity are increasing and will move through the metro through the PM hours! Expect road conditions to rapidly deteriorate this afternoon!

This is our first weekday storm in a while, and the PM school bus trip home and PM rush hour will be affected this time.

Snow picks up on MNDOT traffic cam at Highway 7 & Williston Rd. in Minnetonka late Monday morning.

Here is the latest on the growing storm.

-Snowfall Coverage Expanding:

A long wedge of snowfall runs from eastern Montana through the Dakotas into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The leading edge of snowfall continues to expand rapidly northeast.

Twin low pressure centers pushing snow east from the northern Rockies Monday.

Timing:

Snowfall will continue this afternoon into this evening, before tapering off late tonight. In the metro, snowfall may taper off, or become mixed with freezing drizzle after midnight. There could be an icy coating at the storm's tail end overnight.

Intensity:

Look for peak snowfall intensity between about 2pm and 8pm tonight. Snowfall rates could approach 1" per hour at times during this window late PM into this evening. We should have a good 2" to 4" down by PM rush in the metro.

This of course is peak PM rush hour, and I expect very difficult travel with moderate to heavy snowfall rates (visibilities 3/4 to 1/2 mile!) during the PM rush tonight.

NAM model suggests 6.5" snowfall (blue) with snowfall rates near 1" per hour late today. Also notice wetter snowfall and freezing drizzle potential (red).

Totals:

The latest morning model runs confirm the notion of cranking out about .60" liquid...and an overall snow:water ratio of around 10:1. That's a good 6" of snow for much of the metro. I still think an overall range of 4" to 8" looks good for the metro...with some heavier 8"+ totals north of I-94 from Alexandria to St. Cloud and Hinckley.

Latest NAM model run lays out broad 6"+ totals.

Morning NAM run...7.8" for metro?

Storm Character:

This "warm advection" snow event will feature a heavier wetter snow at times than in our past few snowstorms. It should be good snowball & snowman snow! Enough warm air is mixing in that ice is a concern late tonight.

Also the warmer nature of the storm means there is no bitterly cold shot of arctic air behind the system. Temps may push 30 degrees on Tuesday.

And yes, there is another shot of plowable snow possible Thursday...but first things first.

Bottom Line:

The storm is here! Prepare for snow to increase in intensity through the PM into tonight!

Here are some links to track the storm today.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest NWS warning info
-Latest snowfall totals
-MNDOT Traffic Cams

PH

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Storm Update: Snow expanding

Posted at 8:23 AM on December 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

It's on.

Our 7th winter storm in 6 weeks is spreading an expanding shield of snow and some patchy freezing drizzle north and east through Minnesota.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are flying today for Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

Here are the latest details on our next shot of wintery weather.

Timing:

Snow continues to expand north and east as the system pushes moisture into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow is already falling in southwest Minnesota and pushing northeast. Snowfall should increase in the metro as we move through midday into early PM.

Snowfall should be heaviest during the afternoon and evening hours, tapering off gradually around midnight in many areas. PM rush should be snow covered and slippery in much of Minnesota including the metro.

Snowfall Totals: Overnight and early morning model runs still cluster snowfall around 5" to 6" for much of the metro, with the band of heaviest snow setting up just north of the I-94 corridor from Alex-St. Cloud-Eau Claire. 4" to 8" looks like a good range for metro snowfall, with a few 8"+ totals to the north, and lesser amounts (of 3" to 6") in southern Minnesota.

Modles like a 5" to 7" snowfall range for metro.

PM Rush & Vikings Game:

The peak snowfall intensity should come between 2pm and 9pm over all, with snowfall rates approaching 1" per hour between 4pm and 8pm. This will mean PM rush hour and getting to the Vikings (and Wild!) games tonight will be a challenge. I expect to see some good snowy visuals at kickoff at "The Bank"...with snow falling and several inches on the ground by kickoff time.

Bottom Line:

Expect another shot of snow and increasing wintery weather again today and tonight. Prepare accordingly!

PH

Next Storm Monday: Vikings "Snow Bowl" 2010?

Posted at 3:05 PM on December 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Get ready for the 7th snowstorm to hit Minnesota in the past 6 weeks.

And this one could make an historic outdoor Vikings Monday Night Football game even more interesting!

"The Bank" is cleared, ready for football...and more snow! Check out the amazing time lapse video of the massive snow removal operation here.

Yet another fully charged low pressure system is spinning toward Minnesota. It looks like it will hit hard and fast Monday. Winter Storm Warnings have now been issued for much of the region, including the Twin Cities Metro!

With another set of model runs yet to come, here is my best shot at Monday's storm.

The System:

Another hybrid North Pacific/Alberta Clipper type storm hurtling at Minnesota from the west. This one is coming straight east from Montana/Wyoming, and will track through the Upper Midwest Monday.

Storm Timing:

I expect snow to break out in southwest Minnesota by Monday morning, and spread northeast during the day. It looks like snow could spread into the Twin Cities Metro by about lunchtime...somewhere between 10am & 2pm from west to east.

-Snow should continue through Monday evening, tapering by late evening. There may be a transition to freezing rain in the metro late Monday night, which may add an icy coating on top of fresh snow!

-Peak snowfall rates should come between 2pm and 9pm Monday. Snowfall rates may approach 1" per hour at times.

This should make for a difficult PM rush hour, and messy travel to and from the Vikings and Wild games...both in town Monday night. My advice, stay downtown or leave extra early if you are planning to attend the games!

Storm Character:

This will be what we call in weather geekdom a "warm advection snowfall." That means southerly winds will pull up moist warm air over colder air near the surface. This will be a wetter snow than our past few systems, with snow:water ratios likely to fall to about 10:1 or even 8:1 during the storm.

NAM hints at wetter snow, and potential freezing drizzle for metro.

It looks like the system may yank enough warm air northward to change some of the precip over to freezing rain late in the event Monday night. That could mean an icy coating at the storms tail end.

This will be a "warmer" storm. Temperatures should actually climb through the 20s during the event, and may top out around 30 degrees by Monday night. There is no arctic surge on the storm's back side, meaning there is not much in the way of cold arctic air or wind behind the system. Some good news anyway!

Snowfall Totals:

Okay here we go with the "inches" part of the forecast.

-It appears the heaviest snow band will set up along and north of the I-94 corridor...from Alex-St. Cloud-northern Metro-Eau Claire on the south. On the north end the heavy snow band could reach Brainerd-Duluth. Snowfall totals could reach 6" to 10" in the heavy snow band...this includes Alex, St. Cloud, the far north metro, Brainerd, Mill Lacs, Hinckley and near Duluth.

-North and south of the heaviest snow band there should be another area with impressive snowfall totals of 4" to 8" by early Tuesday morning. This includes Willmar to the Twin Cities & Rochester on the south, and Bemidji to Grand Rapids and Hibbing on the north. By midnight Monday night/Tuesday there could be 4" to 8" totals across the metro, with the heaviest totals in the north metro...followed by an icy coating late Monday night.

NAM snowfall painting 4" to 8" totals.

Bottom Line & Impacts:

Prepare for a messy PM rush hour Monday evening, and very slick roadways. With temperatures rising into the 20s, MNDOT chemicals should work to keep some main roads wet if the plows can keep up. Snow should be falling before and during he Vikings game on MNF, and that could make for some slick playing conditions underfoot, and some interesting visuals on MNF!

Let's see what tonight's model runs bring, but be ready for snow (and maybe some ice) Monday!

PH

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Snowy Recap: Plus a welcome respite

Posted at 6:12 PM on December 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

Our latest Minnesnowta clipper left a swath of heavy snow west of the metro...and a few forecasters scratching our collective heads.

Check out the huge range in snow totals form this week's clipper. Snowfall totals ranged form 0 to 10.1" in central Minnesota, and from 0" to 6.5" just in the metro!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM DECEMBER 15-16...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.10 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0343 PM
9.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0427 PM
8.60 MORRISTOWN MN RICE 0402 PM
8.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0531 PM
8.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0343 PM
8.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0135 PM
8.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 1205 PM
8.00 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0959 AM
7.80 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 0822 AM
7.70 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0800 AM
7.10 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1139 AM
7.00 COLOGNE MN CARVER 1227 PM
7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1113 AM
6.50 9 SW STARBUCK MN POPE 0211 PM
6.50 WACONIA MN CARVER 1101 AM
6.20 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0453 PM
6.00 3 NNE EAGLE LAKE MN BLUE EARTH 1132 AM
6.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0926 AM
6.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0700 AM
5.70 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
5.60 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0800 AM
5.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1104 AM
5.50 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1025 AM
5.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.40 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0800 AM
5.00 WANAMINGO MN GOODHUE 0358 PM
5.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0353 PM
5.00 2 S NORTHFIELD MN RICE 1251 PM
5.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0930 AM
5.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0800 AM
5.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0746 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0733 AM
5.00 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
5.00 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0610 AM
4.80 W CARVER MN CARVER 1200 PM
4.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.70 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0237 PM
4.50 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
4.20 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0830 AM
4.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
4.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
4.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0724 AM
4.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
4.00 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0640 AM
4.00 KANDIYOHI MN KANDIYOHI 0346 AM
3.60 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0705 AM
3.50 4 W COMFREY MN BROWN 1130 AM
3.50 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1020 AM
3.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
3.40 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0340 PM
3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1009 AM
2.50 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 PM
MEASURED AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2.50 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0658 AM
2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0200 PM
MEASURED AT CWSU
2.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 1101 AM
2.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0755 AM
2.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0320 AM
1.50 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0415 PM
1.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
0.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0602 AM
TRACE MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM
OBSERVED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AIRPORT

Here's the map. Notice the sharp cutoff on the storms eastern edge... right over the metro.

A chance to dig out:

It looks like we may actually string together 3 mostly snow free days. That's good news for city crews moving tons of snow off the streets...and anyone who needs to dig out a little bit. Other than a few passing flurries, it looks like the next shot at accumulating snow comes along Monday.

If the potential Monday system stays on track, we could be looking at a few inches of snow for the Vikings game at "The Bank" on Monday Night Football. It seems that Purple just can't buy a break this season. For those of us who were around long enough to remember old time football out at "The Met" this could bring back some great memories from "The Frozen Tundra."

Monday night's potential "Snow Bowl 2010" would be the perfect exclamation point on the epic weather year of 2010 in Minnesota.

Enjoy the quiet break...and stay tuned!

PH

Comment on this post

Snow update: Heavy SW, Metro grazed

Posted at 8:56 AM on December 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

They say "all weather is local."

Never has that been truer than with out latest Minnesnowta snow system.

A narrow band of heavy snow has laid down some impressive 4" to 7+" snowfall totals just south & west of the Twin Cities. In the metro a few inches has fallen in the far SW, it's been a dusting for most areas, with little or no snowfall in the northeast.

Let's check the totals as of Thursday morning.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE DECEMBER 15-16 STORM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.60 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0658 AM
6.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0610 AM
5.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0746 AM
5.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0733 AM
5.00 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0610 AM
5.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0610 AM
4.50 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
4.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0637 AM
4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0727 AM
4.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0724 AM
WATER EQUIVALENT 0.28 INCHES.
4.00 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0640 AM
4.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0530 AM
4.00 KANDIYOHI MN KANDIYOHI 0346 AM
3.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0346 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0346 AM
3.00 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0346 AM
3.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 0320 AM
3.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0320 AM
3.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0320 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0320 AM
2.50 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0729 AM
0.1 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
2.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0722 AM
COCORAHS OBSERVER.
2.50 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0658 AM
2.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0320 AM
1.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0621 AM
NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
0.50 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0602 AM
0.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0602 AM

If you live in Willmar, Glencoe, Mankato, Owatonna, Waconia or Prior Lake you're saying..."pretty good forecast" today. If you live in the central metro, you know why weather forecasters can turn grey quickly, and how finicky life can be on the "edge of a clipper."

We've picked up just .5" in Deephaven and Bloomington overnight, with a respectable 1.3" (and counting) in Chanhassen in the southwest metro, and a plowable 2.5" in Prior Lake!

Update: Waconia is about 5 miles southwest of the weather lab. Talk about a big snowfall range in just a short disatance!

0805 AM SNOW WACONIA M5.5 INCH CARVER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Dry air eats away:

Take a look at this replay from the Twin Cities doppler loop this morning. Notice the heavy snow bands (bright yellow) in Carver & Scott Counties in the SW metro...and how the radar returns just disappear as you move east into the heart of the Twin Cities.

That's dry arctic air "eating away" at the eastern edge of the clipper, and literally evaporating snowfall as it falls into drier air near the surface. The difference between modeate to heavy snow and flurries? About 4 miles.

Looking at the radar loop, you can see why the forecast modles had such a tough time pinpointing metro snowfall totals with this system.

Talk about a forecaster's nightmare, but great news for most commuters this morning in the metro. One man's trash is another man's treasure as they say. I'll take the hit on my metro forecast any day if it means good news and safer travel for drivers.

Expect snowfall to continue in the same areas before tapering off late morning into the afternoon. We could see some 4" to 8"+ snowfall totals...including Carver, Scott and Dakota counties before the system pulls out later today.

Be prepared for a very wintery travel scenario if you are heading (even just a few miles) south and west of the metro today.

PH

Snow grazes metro: Heavier west & south

Posted at 11:00 PM on December 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter storms

The latest clipper to sail through Minnesota is delivering a glancing blow to the Twin Cities, and a harder punch to areas just south & west of the metro.

Surface map shows Clipper's narrow band of snow.

Persistent snow fell much of Wednesday PM & night west of the metro. Late Wednesday evening, a few totals are trickling in to the weather lab.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1041 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW GLENWOOD 45.65N 95.38W
12/15/2010 M1.0 INCH POPE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0609 PM SNOW 2 N WILLMAR 45.15N 95.05W
12/15/2010 M1.0 INCH KANDIYOHI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0817 PM SNOW ELLENDALE 43.87N 93.30W
12/15/2010 M1.5 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 PM SNOW LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
12/15/2010 M2.0 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
12/15/2010 M2.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA

Thursday AM rush:

It looks like there will be some slick travel with falling snow favoring the western & southern metro. With temperatures in the teens, it won't take much snow for roads to slick up Thursday morning.

Winter weather advisories continue into Thursday morning. Plan for some extra travel time, especially in the southern & western metro.

Travel south & west of the Twin Cities will be slick, with higher snowfall accumulations in the 3" to 6" range. One consistent feature with this latest weather system is the predicted heavy snow axis, which still runs along an Alex-Willmar-Hutchinson-St. Peter-Northfield-Owatonna-Albert Lea line. Winter storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

This has been an interesting (and confounding) storm to forecast for the metro...while the rest of the forecast for Minnesota is holding up well. The sharp cutoff from snow on the system's eastern edge literally means a 30 mile difference between no snow, and some 2-4 inch totals. That dividing line is right through the metro with this system.

NAM model finally seems to have a handle on heavier snow band, and sharp cutoff over metro.

Drier arctic air near the surface is literally eating away as moisture attempts to advance eastward.

Surface dewpoint analysis shows much drier arctic air to the east, bucking advancing moisture.

Bottom line for this system...expect slick roads for AM rush in the southern & western metro...with snow accumulations of a coating or less (east metro) to 2" (southwest metro).

It looks like we may sneak in a few quiet days before we look for the next snowmaker which could move in on Monday.

Domebuster snowfall compressing on the ground.

Check out the photo of the small holiday light trees outside the weather lab. Notice the tree on the right? It was completely covered with snow after last weekend's storm. Now, a crown of snow remains stuck to the star on top, while the rest of the snowpack has compressed a good 2 to 3 inches.