Updraft Category Archive: Winter 2012-13
Record cold in wake of record snow; more moisture on the way
Posted at 3:06 PM on April 20, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Record, Winter 2012-13
In the wake of Thursday's record snowfall, the recipe was initiated for record cold. Light winds, clearing skies and a fresh deep snow cover allowed the mercury to tumble to record lows this morning.
Record minimums for April 20th
21 F- record at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport
Old record 26 in 1888
16 F- record at S. Cloud
Old record 20 in 1897
8 F - Ties record at Duluth set in 1926
4 F- International Falls
Old record 18 in 1966*
*Source:NWS Duluth
Sub zero readings were common in northeast Minnesota.
...MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY APRIL 20TH...
...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...MIN...
EMBARASS (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 600 AM APR 20 -14 F
BABBIT (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 700 AM APR 20 -11 F
ROBINSON (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 553 AM APR 20 -9 F
5 E SEA GULL LAKE (COOK MN) (RAWS) 604 AM APR 20 -9 F
CRANE LAKE (ST. LOUIS MN) (AWOS) 552 AM APR 20 -9 F
ELY (ST. LOUIS MN) (1457 FT)(AWOS) 612 AM APR 20 -8 F
3 NNW COTTON (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 629 AM APR 20 -7 F
5 S ELY (ST. LOUIS MN) (1455 FT)(RAWS) 604 AM APR 20 -7 F
SOUTH FORK KAWISHIWI RIVER (LAKE MN) 630 AM APR 20 -7 F
6 NW ASH LAKE (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 614 AM APR 20 -6 F
COOK (ST. LOUIS MN) (1406 FT)(AWOS) 636 AM APR 20 -6 F
3 E ORR (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 553 AM APR 20 -5 F
3 WNW TWIG (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 552 AM APR 20 -4 F
SILVER BAY (LAKE MN) (AWOS) 614 AM APR 20 -4 F
4 SW ORR (ST. LOUIS MN) (1325 FT)(RAWS) 608 AM APR 20 -3 F
4 SSE MAKINEN (ST. LOUIS MN) 648 AM APR 20 -3 F
11 SSE BRULE (BAYFIELD WI) (RAWS) 506 AM APR 20 -2 F
3 SSW CABLE (BAYFIELD WI) (WIDOT) 619 AM APR 20 -2 F
More overnight minimums can be found here.
The early afternoon visible satellite image displayed the fresh snow cover quite nicely, although the forest in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin masks the snow.
Image:NOAA
Impressive snow depths this morning were depicted by this graphic from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Note how the snowfall has rimmed the Red River.
The snow depth at Fargo this morning was 8 inches, with 2 inches on the ground in Grand Forks, ND. Compare that to the 27 inches on the flat in Duluth, and 32 inches at Babbit.
More moisture is on the way for later in the weekend and into Monday. Once again it appears that the heaviest liquid precipitation will skirt the Red River Valley.
Most of the precipitation is likely to fall as a chilly rain and a wet snow combination. I'll monitor the potential for the rain turning to all snow.
Three day precipitation potential ending at 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday.
You'll recall that LaCrosse, Wis., has already set two daily record rainfalls this month. The total precipitation (liquid content) for April at LaCrosse is already over 5 inches (5.16).
Looking for something that perhaps gives you a warm rush? How about this forecast from the National Weather Service for high temperatures next Friday.
Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)Snow ending, but winds staying strong
Posted at 6:28 AM on April 19, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Record, Snow, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Thursday was a day with record precipitation totals in a large part of Minnesota, including snowfall records.
Daily records for snowfall were set for April 18th at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport (6.4 inches); Duluth (11.2 inches) and St. Cloud (9.4 inches)
Snowfall reports can be found here.
Weather radar depicted patches of snow falling in eastern Minneasota, but the accumulating snow is all but over.
Regional radar screen capture at 620 a.m. CDT.
Source:Weather underground
The national weather picture shows the storm headed east. Severe storms are possible in the southeast U.S. today.
Winds will be brisk through the day, with gusts to 30 mph. As winds ease tonight temperatures are likely to drop to near record lows around the Twin Cities. The record low for Minneapolis/St. Paul for April 20th is 26 F set in 1888.
Forecast of temperatures and winds from RAP valid at noon CDT.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Since March 1, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has measured more than 6 inches of liquid precipitation. Some of this moisture is likely leaking into the topsoil. Much is finding its way to the creeks, streams, ponds and rivers.
More preciptiation is on the way for the weekend. Here's NOAA's best forecast of liquid precipitation Sunday.
Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms clobbered Iowa, northern MIssouri and Illinois on Wednesday and Wednesday night. See these precipitation totals that soaked the landscape.
Awaiting the arrival of Spring? Temperatures will moderate into the 40s on Sunday, with some lower 50s in southwest Minnesota. It has yet to reach 50 F in St. Cloud and 60 F in the Twin Cities.
Craig Edwards
(4 Comments)Full-force winter in Duluth, lighter snow in the Twin Cities overnight
Posted at 3:49 PM on April 11, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011
Winds howling down the length of Lake Superior combined with falling snow are creating white-out conditions along the north shore as well as the south shore of the lake.
A winter storm warning remains in effect Thursday night for the area highlighted in pink. Gale warnings are in effect for Lake Superior. Winter weather advisories are shown in blue for lighter amounts of snow overnight.
Central Minnesota is covered by a winter weather advisory for an additional inch or two overnight into Friday morning.
The National Weather Service is monitoring the flood threat in Eau Claire, Wis., and issued this statement this morning.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK .
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE RIVER HAS CRESTED. THE FORECAST IS STARTING
AT THE MAXIMUM VALUE OF 12.4 FEET...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
Gale force winds battered Duluth Harbor today.
Winds gusted to over 50 mph in Duluth this morning, but are expected to slowly subside overnight.
This forecast from the NWS Duluth regional forecast model indicates wind gusts, in knots at midnight tonight.
Source:NWS Duluth, MN
Each long barb is 10 knots or approximately 12 mph. Shorter barbs are 5 knots.
Snowfall totals were over 10 inches in some parts of southwest and west central Minnesota in the past 24 hours. Eleven inches accumulated in Vesta, Minn.
Checkout snowfall totals on this interactive link.
Now about the drought: A dent in the precipitation deficit is made with much welcome moisture in southern Minnesota.
There is more progress to be made, and the pattern continues to favor wetness for the region with the highest moisture deficit since late summer.
The surface low that was elongated from Des Moines, Iowa to Springfield, Ill., Thursday morning will consolidate and is forecast to move to Lake Huron on Friday.
This image shows the surface temperatures and winds at 1 p.m. CDT Friday
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
More precipitation is being depicted on the forecast models for Saturday night and Sunday as a push of milder air rides over the snow cover of southern and central Minnesota.
A moderation in temperatures, which resemble spring, does not appear in the short term forecast. The normal maximum temperature in the Twin Cities for April 16 is 58 F.
Maximum temperatures on Tuesday, April 16.
Wish I had better weather news. The cold and wet pattern shows little signs of changing in the next ten days.
Craig Edwards
The main event: Heavy snow tonight; soggy in Wisconsin
Posted at 7:28 AM on April 10, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013, Storms, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Beginning last Saturday a series of weather systems have been producing waves of precipitation across the region. Most recently, on Tuesday and Tuesday night heavy rain fell in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms were reported along the southern tier of counties in Minnesota during the evening.
Overnight the rain pushed east with embedded thunderstorms, while snow spread across east central Minnesota. Two inches of snow were measured at Chaska and Hastings early this morning. At daybreak, the latest in the series of wet weathermakers was moving through Wisconsin. Snow was breaking out in western South Dakota.
A record rainfall was measured at the LaCrosse NWS Office.
RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013
...NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT LA CROSSE WI FOR APRIL 9TH...
ON APRIL 9TH...1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED AT THE LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR
APRIL 9TH OF 0.87 INCHES SET IN 1973.
RECORDS FOR LA CROSSE DATE BACK TO 1873.
Source:MPR/Weather underground
The much advertised snow event is in the process of evolving. Snow is expected to fall heavy at times in southwest Minnesota this afternoon.
NOAA meteorologists have integrated the model output and have produced a good forecast of the region likely to receive 8 inches or more of snow in the next 24 hours.
Here is a snippet of their snowfall forecast discussion:
THIS RESULTS IN THE BAND OF 6 TO 12 INCH SNOWFALL FROM PARTS OF EASTERN SD INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ANY ICING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AS MOISTURE LADEN RIDES UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME.
As Paul has been noting and questioning, the models have not strayed much from putting the Twin Cities metro region in close proximity to the band of heaviest snow. I see no reason to differ from the numbers posted this morning from the NWS Office in Chanhassen.
This is a major weather producer with the threat of severe weather in the warmer air to our south. Try to remember it is April.
From NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the threat for damaging winds from thunderstorms today and tonight.
This system will move slowly and precipitation will last through Thursday. Heavy snow is expected to reach northwest Wisconsin tomorrow. Much below normal temperatures are likely in our neck of the woods through the weekend.
An active weather pattern is seen next week as well.
Craig Edwards
(0 Comments)Winter making a comeback, but not by popular demand; snow in April
Posted at 6:24 AM on April 8, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Paul mentioned here last week that the EURO model was teasing us with a potential snowmaker the middle of this week. Well, snow lovers and non-lovers, this may be a reality.
The forecast models are showing a developing low pressure system that as the potential to dump several inches of snow from Nebraska, though northwest Iowa and into southwest and central Minnesota. This low pressure track favors heavy wet snow, well north of the storm's projected path.
Source:NOAA
Here is the probability of snowfall of greater than four inches on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Source:NOAA NCEP
It is still a little early to project snowfall totals in Minnesota, but some locations between Sioux Falls, S.D. to the Twin Cities, Willmar and St. Cloud may get up to six inches.
Temperatures are expected to hold in the middle 30s on Wednesday, some 20 degrees colder than the seasonal normal.
Overnight rainfall tallied more than half an inch at many locations. I measured 0.88 inches of precipitation as of 6 a.m. CDT.
This radar image from 6 a.m. CDT gives an estimation of the total precipitation since last evening. Note the heavier amounts, well over an inch in west central Wisconsin. Radar sometimes overestimates the actual reports, but this clearly identifies the region that received the most rain.
Source:Weather underground
Wisconsin is no longer considered to be in drought. Rivers and streams will continue to rise and perhaps exceed their banks as heavy rain threatens the region this week.
Source:NOAA/NWS LaCrosse, WI
NOAA forecasters paint a very wet picture over the country's midsection.
Source"NOAA NCEP
I suppose the silver lining here is that the bulk of the moisture stays south of the Red River Valley.
In the warmer airmass, there will be a threat for severe weather and even tornadoes. The forecast calls for severe weather to focus from Nebraska to north Texas today.
I jabbed the soil a little on Sunday afternoon and some of the frost is out of the surface layer. Incoming moisture may find a way to premeate into the landscape, while a good portion of the rain will find its way to streams, ponds, creeks and eventually the mainstream rivers.
A huge dent in the Minnesota drought is expected to be made this week.
Craig Edwards
Slow moderation continues; 40s in our future
Posted at 6:36 AM on March 26, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Winter 2012-13
Nice summary of the upcoming weather from the NWS Office in Chanhassen, MN:
The unseasonably chilly temperatures have kept the severe weather threat to a minimum in 2013! Anybody recall hearing thunder recently?
Not much to write home about when it comes to mild spring-like temperatures, but we'll be pleased to see readings in the 40s later this week.
In March of 2012, St. Cloud tallied 24 days of 40 F or better. So far, this March, the temperature has yet to reach 40 F. From January through March in 2012, St. Cloud recorded 35 days of 40 F or warmer. On January 5, 2012 the high temperature was 53 F in St. Cloud.
There has not been much of a run-up on the thermometer in 2013 over Minnesota.
Here's some wishful thinking to urge on spring:
Image:Chanhassen Arboretum/Craig Edwards
Temperatures finally climb to near normal for daytime maximums by the end of the work week. Readings in the 40s are most likely to be found over a snow-free landscape in far southern Minnesota on Thursday and Friday.
Looking ahead to the weekend, I see another cold front approaching on Saturday. This front will usher in colder air and produce the chance for rain/snow showers.
The GFS model projects a bulls-eye of precipitation around the Twin Cities on Saturday morning. Temperatures are likely to be well above freezing as the precipitation falls.
GFS model for 1 p.m. CDT Saturday. Liquid precipitation for six hour period ending at 1 p.m. CDT.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
NOAA's forecast of maximum temperatures for Saturday.
Local forecast highs for our neck of the woods on Saturday. Highs could be held done some if overcast skies persist.
Boy's basketball tourney snow storm myth:
The Minnesota State Climate Office staff, with some preliminary work done by meteorologist Ron Trenda, posted the most recent data on the occurrence of a snow storm during the boy's basketball tournament in Minnesota.
Here is one nugget that sums up the truth of the matter: From 1913-2012 10 years out of 100 had 4 inches or more of snow over "tourney time" (travel day plus the days of the tournament) This means that 10% of the tournaments had a "tournament snowstorm."
A complete summary of the weather over the years for the Boy's HS basketball tourney can be read here.
I'll be tracking the potential "backslide" on the temperatures that may arrive later in the weekend.
Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)Warmth of March sun? Not so much this year
Posted at 5:17 PM on March 19, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
There is some warmth in the March sun. In fact, my outoor thermometer, positioned in the direct sunshine, at five foot, level reach 37 degrees this aftenoon. I suppose if you found a sunny spot, out of the wind, this afternoon wasn't particularly nasty. Official temperatures are recorded in the shade.
On this date last year, the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport topped out a a record high of 79 F.
Tomorrow is the vernal equinox at 602 a.m. CDT. We've gained about two and a half hours of daylight since mid January. Sunset on Wednesday in the Twin Cities is 726 p.m. CDT.
3 p.m. CDT temperatures. Source:Unisys Weather
This afternoon it was a very warm 82 degrees in Ft. Myers, Florida. Meanwhile, Devils Lake, North Dakota was chilling at 10 degrees with a wind chill of 8 below zero.
A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota after dark into Wednesday morning. Wind Chill readings will range from 20 to 30 below zero.
Yes, you can get a sun damage on your exposed skin at cold temperatures. The UV index for today suggested sun damage in our neck of the woods could occur with 45 minutes of exposure. Sunburn likely in less than a half hour in south Florida today.
Source:US EPA
There was some melting and sublimation of snow in the sun exposed area. The gusty winds also helped to take some snow/ice directly to water vapor.
I took a core sampe of the snowpack this afternoon to get a good approximation of the water content in the snow. Snow has compacted and compressed in the past few days, The water equivalent in the seven inches of snow was 2.3 inches in Eden Prairie.
This visible satellite image (below) from this afternoon nicely displays the snow covered landscape. Some clouds are mixed in over the eastern Dakotas and southwest Minnesota. But you can see the rather sparse snow cover in southwest Minnesota.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Check the previous blog for snow depth.
Some of the coldest air in the continental US is positioned over Minnesota and doesn't show much sign of moving on. The jet stream remains locked in a pattern that keeps the upper Midwest and much of New England well below normal for the next ten days.
Forecast temperatures and winds from the NAM at 7 a.m. Thursday CDT.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
The normal temperatures are on the way up. The normal maximum in the Twin Cities on this date is 43 F, but climbs to 50 F by April 1st.
I'm not seeing much of a big moderation through the remainder of March. There is a lot of snow on the landscape that needs to disappear and then we can start heating up the frozen soil.
Perhaps the next big precipitation producers will skirt Minnesota and Wisconsin to the south.
Paul will be tracking the potential for a "warm-up", but don't get your hopes up.
Craig Edwards
Wintry landscape; moderation for weekend; monitoring flood potential
Posted at 6:46 AM on March 19, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Flooding, Red River, Remote sensing, Winter 2012-13
Biting winds continue this morning. The wind chill reading was 23 below zero at Fergus Falls at 6 a.m. CDT and well below zero over Minnesota.
Shortly before daybreak winds were gusting to 45 mph at Grand Marais along the north shore of Lake Superior.
Despite March sunshine, it will feel bitterly cold if you are venturing out today. Bundle up. The temperatures are more typical of mid-January.
The high in the Twin Cities metro today will be around 20 F. The normal high for this time of year in Minneapolis/St. Paul is 43 degrees.
Additional snow cover was added to the landscape in the past 48 hours. The snow depth as of Monday morning was as 26 inches at International Falls and 17 inches at St. Cloud.
This is National Flood Awareness Week. Hydrologists are monitoring the water equivalent in the snow pack, the frost depth, the temperature trends and the potential for additional precipitation.
When I worked at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen our field observers would take a core sample of the snow pack and report that water value to our office on Tuesday mornings. This information was combined with the analysis made by the staff at NOAA's Remote Sensing Center in Chanhassen.
Through the month of March and into early April, the North Central River Forecast Center hydrologists will track the flood potential.
From the Minnesota State Climatologist Office earlier this month:
Most recent release from the North Central River Forecast Center for the flood risk of moderate flooding on the Red:
Snow adding up, with more to come
Posted at 2:07 PM on March 16, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Snow cover, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Friday and Friday evening brought more snowfall to Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow depths are now on the order of 20 to 30 inches in northern Minnesota with water content of more than four inches.
Snowfall totals reported from the Duluth NWS Office.
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.50 DULUTH HEIGHTS MN ST. LOUIS 0830 AM
7.20 DULUTH HEIGHTS MN ST. LOUIS 0909 AM
6.30 2 SW PROCTOR MN ST. LOUIS 0421 AM
5.50 WEST DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0723 AM
5.30 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0105 PM
5.00 LESTER PARK DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0943 AM
5.00 SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0724 AM
5.00 6 W TWO HARBORS MN ST. LOUIS 0624 AM
4.90 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0823 AM
4.70 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0925 AM
NEAR UMD CAMPUS
4.70 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0846 AM
4.50 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0536 AM
4.30 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0729 AM
4.30 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0658 AM
4.10 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0708 AM
4.00 MOUTH OF BRULE MN DOUGLAS 1101 AM
4.00 GILE WI IRON 0841 AM
4.00 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0732 AM
4.00 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0729 AM
3.50 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0823 AM
3.50 SEELEY MN SAWYER 0611 AM
3.00 HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 1111 AM
3.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0936 AM
3.00 3 NE NISSWA MN CROW WING 0809 AM
3.00 CULVER MN ST. LOUIS 0756 AM
3.00 GURNEY WI IRON 0734 AM
2.50 BEAVER BAY MN LAKE 0902 AM
2.50 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0653 AM
2.50 LITTLE MARAIS MN LAKE 1112 PM
2.30 REMER MN CASS 1123 AM
2.10 2 W SHESHEBEE MN AITKIN 0654 AM
1.80 HIBBING MN ST. LOUIS 1101 AM
1.00 LUTSEN MN COOK 0732 AM
Snow depth from the Midwest Regional Climate Center Saturday morning.
A small amount of water in the snowpack will, in part, sublimate (go from ice to water vapor) in the sunshine and wind. Much of the snow will remain until a good thaw eventually shows up.
Runoff of the snowmelt in April will lead to flooding problems. Water levels of lakes and streams will be high in northern Minnesota in the spring. The North Central River Forecast Center is monitoring the potential for flooding. Additional updates on the flood threat on the Red River of the North will continue through March. Be prepared.
More snow is expected later Sunday, Sunday night into Monday morning. A Winter Storm Watch (highlighted in blue) for several inches of accumulation has been posted for portions of the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota for Sunday night.
From the Grand Forks, North Dakota NWS Office this morning...THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
Snowfall probability of four inches or more from NOAA's NCEP for late Sunday and Sunday night issued on Saturday morning.
Lighter amounts of snow, on the order of 2 to 4 inches, are expected across the remainder of Minnesota ahead of another surge of cold air on Sunday night.
NOAA's NCEP forecast for liquid precipitation accumulation from 7 a.m. CDT Sunday to 7 a.m. CDT Monday
Gusty northwest winds and unseasonably cold temperatures will follow in the wake of the snow on Monday night and Tuesday.
These are the expected low temperatures, not the wind chill on Wednesday morning.
Craig Edwards
Moisture totals adding up; second storm to clip southeast Minnesota
Posted at 6:44 AM on March 10, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Record, Snow, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Moisture is beginning to add up this month. Unfortunately it is falling on snow-covered and frozen landscape. Rainfall of 1.20 inches in Mankato resulted flooding and the temporary closure of Highway 169 southbound lane on Saturday.
Sioux Falls, S.D., received a record 0.68 inches of precipitation for March 9. Meanwhile, Eau Clairie, Wis., tallied close to an inch of moisture (0.98 inches).
Precipitation stayed mostly a cold rain in St. Cloud, where they picked up three-quarters of an inch of precipitation on Saturday.
Snowfall totals were generous as well. More than 6 inches fell at Millerville, Minn., in Douglas County. Other snowfall totals gathered by the Duluth NWS Office are listed below:
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.00 LEADER MN CASS 0547 PM
7.00 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS 0901 PM
7.00 BIGFORK MN ITASCA 0441 PM
7.00 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0908 AM
7.00 SQUAW LAKE MN ITASCA 0834 AM
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0921 PM
6.50 KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS 0517 PM
6.30 6 W TWO HARBORS MN ST. LOUIS 0716 PM
6.10 DULUTH HEIGHTS MN ST. LOUIS 0739 PM
6.00 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0926 PM
6.00 10 N ESKO MN ST. LOUIS 0711 PM
6.00 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0513 PM
5.80 COLERAINE MN ITASCA 0845 PM
5.60 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0905 PM
5.60 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0800 PM
5.30 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0640 PM
5.00 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0825 PM
5.00 7 SE GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0811 PM
5.00 TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0749 PM
5.00 LAKE NICHOLS MN ST. LOUIS 0716 PM
5.00 MCGREGOR MN AITKIN 0657 PM
5.00 10 NW SAND POINT LAKE MN ST. LOUIS 0347 PM
More snowfall reports from the Duluth Office of less than 5 inches:
4.80 3 NE NISSWA MN CROW WING 0408 PM
4.50 12 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0850 PM
4.00 FORT RIPLEY MN CROW WING 0735 PM
4.00 LUTSEN MN COOK 0723 PM
4.00 4 NNE DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0500 PM
4.00 BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0453 PM
4.00 EMILY MN CROW WING 0256 PM
3.60 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0645 PM
3.00 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 1200 PM
2.80 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING 0602 PM
2.30 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0842 PM
2.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0849 PM
2.00 LITTLE MARAIS MN LAKE 0551 PM
1.20 7 SE SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0749 PM
1.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS 1000 AM
Another precipitation-producing weather system is organizing in Missouri and will deliver a heavy, wet snow to Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the next 24 hours:
IR satellite image from 6 a.m. CDT. Coldest cloud tops are depicted in enhanced color.
Source:NOAA/NWS
Graphical presentation from the NWS Chanhassen Office highlights the wintry weather that will play out today and tonight:
The LaCrosse, Wis., NWS meteorologists paint this forecast of snow accumulation in the next 24 hours:
Track the progress of the snow storm from the LaCrosse NWS Office here.
There is some consistency in the model runs to confine the accumulating snow to the southeast corner of Minnesota. This is likely to be a wet snow with a 10-to-1 snow-to-water ratio.
Source:NOAA/Collge of Dupage
GFS model precipitaiton prediction for six hour period ending at 1 a.m. CDT Monday. A band of 6 to 8 inches is laid out from Des Moines to Black River Falls, Wis.
Regional radar at 710 a.m. CDT Sunday:
Travel with caution today, especially heading south through Iowa and tonight heading toward LaCrosse.
Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)"Snowquester Storm" keeps on giving; Heavy AM snow tapers PM
Posted at 5:58 AM on March 5, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Storm Headlines:
Winter Storm Warnings in effect until 6pm tonight
-Latest warnings from Twin Cities NWS
4" to 7" snowfall totals through 5 am in the metro so far.
(NWS reports 7.1" at MSP Airport through 6am)
-Latest snowfall totals
Snowfall continues this morning, gradually tapering off this afternoon. Another 2" to 4" likely today with overall totals now expected to reach 7" to 11" in many areas
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Obviously roads are in terrible shape, if you can stay put today or work from home that might be a good idea
-MNDOT Traffic cams and info
I-94 near the Lowry Tunnel
Staying Power
It's seriously slow going this morning with moderate to heavy snow in the metro and much of Minnesota.
Our latest snow maker has slowed overnight, and will continue to bring snow right through AM rush hour and into early afternoon in many areas. A slower moving system means more time for accumulating snow, and that means potentially higher totals.
Through 5am, metro snowfall totals range from 4" at Anoka and Forest Lake, to 6" in Shoreview and 7" in Lakeville on the far south end of the metro.
(Update: MSP Airport NWS reports 7.1" as of 6 am)
One big storm:
Check out the NWS warnings map.
Winter Storm Warnings & Watches extend from the Canadian border through the Twin Cities to Chicago, and all the way to Washington D.C. and the East Coast. Chicago gets blasted with 10" today. New York & suburbs, Philly, and Boston will al be dealing with our storm by tomorrow.
Major airline delays are already in the system today travelling eastbound.
Be safe in the snow today!
PH
Double Feature: 2nd "Snow Show" more vivid overnight
Posted at 3:30 PM on March 4, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
1-2 Snow Punch:
One of the beautiful things about weather is that all storms are not created equal.
Some come in fast and hard. Some take their sweet time.
This one is coming in 2 distinct pieces.
The first wave of snow this morning was a bit underwhelming in the metro. A general 1" to 2" fell, with 1.4" "officially" at MSP Airport.
Do I know anyone that lives at the Airport?
A few bands of snow may brush the metro from the west late PM & evening, but our PM "snow lull" is well timed for an easier than expected PM rush.
The good news? MNDOT and local city crews should have enought time this afternoon to have things in good shape for at least the early part of PM rush hour.
The models insist the "main event" will move in later tonight between about 10pm & midnight, and snow well into Tuesday morning.
NOAA's High Resolution radar (HRR) depicts a heavy snow band over MSP by about 11pm tonight.
There is a small bust potential if the next wave of snow does not set up right over the metro overnight. But all major models insist it will. I am not yet totally convinced the overnight snow will be as heavy as the models suggest, but I do think we'll get a good shot of snow overnight.
The usually trusty "Euro" is cranking out .45" liquid overnight. That should translate into about 4" to 6" snowfall overnight if it verifies.
The main event overnight should bring the heaviest snow between midnight and 7am. We should see snowfall intensity of .5" per hour for several hours...with a couple hours near 1" per hour in some spots.
If part 2 of this system performs as expected, It should deliver a good 3" to 6"+ additional snowfall overnight & Tuesday AM.
With the 1" to 2" from this morning, that should mean most of the metro and eastern Minnesota will end up with overall storm totals between 4" and 8" by noon Tuesday.
We'll get another major model run tonight just before the 2nd wave moves in...so I'll let you know if I see any changes in current thinking.
Here is the latest web briefing on what the Twin Cities NWS is thinking.
What could possibly go wrong?
PH
Happy Meteorological Spring: Monday snow then 40F next week? Why "Concrete Frost" boosts flood risk
Posted at 6:36 PM on February 28, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Happy Meteorological Spring
It's over!
Meteorological winter (and many Minnesotans least favorite month of February) ended at midnight.
Hellooooo March.
While it doesn't look like we'll rush headlong into spring this year, it is likely that a month from today there's a decent chance we'll see scenes like this popping up in southern Minnesota.
Image: Paul Huttner -MPR News
The Minnesota Twins hope so...it's the earliest home opener since moving outdoors to Target Field...just 1 month away on April 1st this year.
As the final data trickles in Friday for the winter that was, it appears we ended up about +1F vs. average in the temperature department overall this winter. That's a good -6F vs. last winter in most of Minnesota... but in reality much closer to what passes for "average" these days.
We're still counting up the inches on snowfall, and I have little doubt we'll add more inches (maybe as soon as Monday) to the 35.5" in the metro we've shoveled and played in so far.
In this edition of Updraft we look ahead to spring and we introduce a shiny new weather term..."concrete frost."
How does it increase or risk for spring flooding in parts of Minnesota? Flood and drought at the same time? Only in Minnesota.
Plus, signs of a spring like thaw are already in sight. How warm will it get next week? How much snow will be left by next Friday?
Things to ponder as we launch into "Meteorological Spring 2013."
February snow boosts flood risk:
It seems counterintuitive, but Minnesota is likely to have both flood...and drought this spring.
Say what?
Here's the deal.
Our February snow blitz has laid down 2" to 5" of water content in the snowpack over Minnesota. The highest concentration is in western and north-central Minnesota watersheds that feed into the Red, Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers.
Image: Twin Cities NWS/Hydrology
As that snow melts in the coming weeks that water will runoff into the rivers. Add any heavy spring rainfall...or a rapid warm up and you increase the chances for spring flooding.
Now we can throw in an extra "incentive" for flooding in southern Minnesota this spring.
"Concrete Frost."
Remember our wet rainy systems in December followed by a rapid "flash freeze?" That water was basically frozen in place from the metro south to the Iowa border. The hard...impervious layer of ice on top of the ground under the snow cover acts like "concrete kryptonite" to spring rains.
Image: Twin Cities NWS/Hydrology
Any rainfall that hits the "concrete frost" will quickly runoff into rivers. That increases the risk for flooding...and an inch or two of spring rain may cause flooding that parched...thawed soils would normally gulp down.
Until the concrete frost thaws...the dice are loaded in favor of flooding from heavy spring rainfall...and drought depleted soils are unable to soak up the much needed rainfall.
Flood and drought.
Twin Cities NWS Hydrologist Dianne Cooper has put together an excellent video describing the concept of "concrete frost."
The frost and snowpack...and any additional snow and spring rain has boosted flood forecasts to "normal" in much of Minnesota and "high" along the Red River near Fargo and Wahpeton.
Some details from the Twin Cities NWS & North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen.
Here's a closer look at where things stand on the Minnesota River at Montevideo.
Forecast: Cool & quiet weekend & big thaw next week?
March comes in like a "chilly lamb" this year.
My MPR colleague and UM Climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley has an interesting look at the numbers behind the old saying "In like a lion, out like a lamb" a preview of this week's "Weather Talk."
Topic: The Lion and the Lamb Climatology of March for MSPMarch months which have come in "like a lion and out like a lamb" or in "like a lamb and out like a lion" are remembered for both their storminess and temperature deviation.
Standard deviations in daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are generally in the 10 to 11 degree F range during March for the Twin Cities. Occasionally daily temperature deviations exceed one standard deviation during the first and last weeks of the month.
Using temperature records for the first and last week of March from the Twin Cities (1900-2012) and looking for opposite temperature patterns based on approximately one standard deviation statistically (plus or minus 11 degrees F from normal), the following characteristic years fell out......
"In like a lamb/out like a lion" "In like a lion/out like a lamb"
(March starts mild, finishes cold) (March starts cold, finishes mild)
1921 1920
1923 1925
1924 1943
1934 1945
1937 1955
1964 1978
1966 1989
......... 1995
......... 2005Temperature records confirm these years, 16 in all, fell into one category or the other. But 16 out of 113 years is only 14 percent of the time when this old saying has been true, at least based on MSP temperature standard deviations for March. Looks like the March will begin with near normal temperatures.
Mark also highlights how a wet February shaved a few points off drought percentages in Minnesota.
Precipitation was generally abundant during the month of February. It was the wettest February statewide since 2007. Many observers reported over 2 inches of precipitation, most of which came as snowfall.For some the moisture was record-setting for the month, including 2.45 inches at Breckenridge, 2.49 inches at Benson, and 2.57 inches at Rothsay. For most areas of the state February brought the most snowfall for the winter as well. Itasca State Park, Breckenridge, Bemidji, Pelican Rapids, Wheaton, and Hermantown reported over 20 inches for the month, while Ottertail, Rothsay, and Battle Lake reported over 25 inches. Some of these values were record-setting for the month.
For the most part the moisture was welcome. As we concluded the month the US Drought Monitor reduced the total area of the state designated to be in severe to extreme drought from 84 percent to less than 70 percent of the state landscape.
March Lamb... with Monday snow??
As we search for warmer days I see (bright) a ray of hope next week. I also see some potential snow between now and then.
The models have been hinting at a potential snow system for Monday,The latest model trends suggest this system may clip the metro and southern MN with snowfall Monday.
Image: NOAA via Iowa State University
Milder Pacific breezes kick in by next Wednesday & Thursday. By then most of our remaining 5" snow cover in and near the metro should be fading fast. That should allow us to warm up into the 40s if everything goes right next Thursday and Friday.
Image: NOAA GFS via Iowa State University
Weather fingers and toes crossed!
PH
A "Real" Winter: 6 degrees colder than last winter; 40s possible late next week?
Posted at 8:01 AM on February 28, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Old Fashioned Winter
"Meteorological Winter" ends today. (Cue the applause & ticker-tape)
It may not match the barbaric winters of the late 70s, but this "meteorological winter" in Minnesota will go in the books as a respectable one.
December through February is "climatologically" the 3 coldest months of the year.
It doesn't take a genius, or even a meteorologist to tell you that this winter has been far more rigorous than last winter. It's not your imagination.
When you add up the numbers for Minnesota, it turns out this winter is running significantly colder... and snowier than last winter in the metro.
In the weather blog today we add up some (preliminary) numbers on the Meteorological Winter of 2012-'13, that ends Thursday, keep one eye on Monday's snow chances, and look forward to what looks like a significant thaw late next week.
Does my thermometer remember how to hit 40+F?
38F high temp at MSP Wednesday
29F mild low temp at MSP this morning
-1.8F temp vs. average for MSP in February 2013
(Estimates pending final numbers)
+1.0F temps vs. 30 year average at MSP this meteorological winter
-6.5F temps this winter compared to last winter at MSP Airport
Good qulaity ice this winter at Cottagewwod rink in Deephaven
Image: Paul Huttner MPR - News
Winter 2012-'13: Colder & Snowier
There are many ways to "measure" winter in Minnesota. Here's one way.
The outdoor ice was good this winter for Friday night hockey with "The Boys", and my driveway snowplow bill doubled over last winter.
That's how the intuitive side of a meteorologist measures how this winter's cold and snow compared to last winter.
For the past 20+ years, it's a tradition for our same group of guys to skate on Friday nights in winter at one of our local outdoor rinks. The players change a little from week to week and year to year, but one thing stays the same. You can feel the "character" of winter as your blades cut into the ice below your feet and the wind stings your face on a crisp Friday night outdoors in Minnesota. It's my weekly weather "product sample" during a Minnesota winter.
Last winter was the 4th warmest and 9th "least snowy" (22.3") on record in the Twin Cities.
This winter started mild, but showed a much different personality over time.
Some numbers.
Temperatures vs. average at MSP Airport:
(Latest 30 year averages are from 1981-2010)
December +3.7F
January +1.3F
February -1.8F (estimate pending final NWS numbers)
Overall near +1.0F (estimate pending final NWS numbers)
Comment: Last winter ran about +6.0F vs. average at MSP. That makes this meteorological winter about -5F colder than last winter.
Heating Degree Days (HDD) A more precise way to measure winter temps, and the cost of heating your home is through HDD. For every degree the daily average temp is under 65F you get 1 HDD. Adding them up all winter gives you a good gauge on heating costs.
HDD at MSP
4009 HDD since December 1st
4133 average HDD since Dec 1st
-124 HDD vs. average
3434 HDD last meteorolocial winter to date
-575 HDD this winter compared to last winter
Comment: Overall it's costing us about 17% more to heat our homes this winter vs. last year.
Days at or below zero:
12 days so far
3 days last winter
22.5 days on average
Comment: We only had to endure a little more than half the average number of sub-zero days this winter. But 9 more days at or below zero this winter vs. last winter is a significant difference in how cold we felt.
Snowfall:
35.5" so far
40.8" season average to date
18.2" last winter to date
Comment: We've roughly doubled last winter's snowfall totals in Minnesota. International Falls has tallied 70.3" so far. That's a good 17" above average.
Overall the character of this winter in Minnesota is much closer to an average winter than last year.
Given the uncertainty regarding El Nino last fall, this winter turned out to be surprisingly closer to estimates at that time than I thought it might.
Temp Roller Coaster Ahead:
March comes in like a "cool lamb" this year. Look for a quiet, but cool weekend with highs in the upper 20s.
Milder Pacific air will try and push in next week, and temps will rebound back into at least the upper 30s, with a shot at 40+ for parts of Minnesota again by Thursday of Friday of next week.
The warm up will be fighting snow cover over the Upper Midwest, and snow melt injects additional moisture into the air that favors fog formation. That is one factor that can keep temperature rises in check in March.
I'm also keeping one eye on a clipper type system for Monday of next week that could bring some snow to southern Minnesota, and maybe the metro.
The latest modles show a trend toward steering the system into southwest Minnesota....probably keeping the bulk of the significant accumulating snow southwest of the metro.
Stay tuned!
PH
Breathing Easier: Metro AQI improves; Pine tree effect adds +10F up north
Posted at 8:54 AM on February 27, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Fresh Canadian Breezes
We can thank Canada for our fresher breezes today.
After the Twin Cities Air Quality Index (AQI) spiked Tuesday, a fresh north breeze has cleaned out the "gunk" over much of Minnesota today.
Temps ran +10 to +20 degrees warmer Tuesday in the forests of northern Minnesota. Today's Updraft explains why the "Pine Tree Effect" reaches peak from now into early March.
We'll also tally up some impressive snowfall totals for our neighbors down I-94 in Madison, Milwaukee & Chicago.
11.7" snowfall in Beach Park, IL (near Waukegan in the north suburbs)
10.1" snowfall total in Richmond, IL (far NW Chicago suburbs near WI state line)
14.5" in Sheboygan, WI (north of Milwaukee)
36F high at MSP Tuesday
45F high at Crane Lake in far northern Minnesota Tuesday
60s in Rapid City, SD this weekend?
Breathing Easier: Metro AQI improves overnight
My dad always said our chilly winter breezes "keeps out the riff-raff" in Minnesota.
Our latest cool push did a number on a stagnant, polluted air mass overnight.
A north breeze from a cleaner source region" that we call Canada brought in fresh air and mixed out particulate matter and pushed it south.
Image: College of DuPage
Check out the drop in AQI values for the Twin Cities in the past 24 hours...from 109 to 57 and falling.
"Pine Tree Effect" season in full swing:
With roughly the same air mass in place Tuesday, it was +6F to +9F warmer up north than in the metro...and as much as +20F warmer than in Fargo Tuesday.
Why?
There were some slight differences in could cover...but the bigest factor was the "pine tree effect."
Image: NASA MODIS Terra via UW Madison
Pine trees are remarkably efficient at absorbing and reradiating our stronger late winter sunshine and warming the air near the ground. Areas with fewer trees and deep snow cover act like a mirror, and reflect incoming (short wave) solar radiation right back into space before it can "convert" to "long wave" radiation which is good at heating the air around us.
The pine tree effect peaks this time of year...as a higher sun angle and intensity combines with widespread snow cover to produce the dramatic differences on sunny days with light winds
Close Call: Winter storm pounds Milwaukee & Chicago
I spent 4 years counting up inches in Chicago during my career.
There was plenty to count with the latest "productive" winter storm that raced through the Midwest.
A trace of snow came as close as Rochester and La Crosse...but heavy totals fell around Madison, Milwaukee & Chicago.
After one of the least snowy winters on record, the tide turned in February in Chi-Town.
Some details from the Chicago NWS.
Forecast: Cooler weekend breezes - signs of a thaw late next week?
You'll feel the cooler breezes the next few days as Canadian air sags south.
Monday's clipper looks to target southwest Minnesota...and may produce a few inches of snow for Luverne & Pipestone.
There are signs of a thaw late next week, as Pacific air mass tries to push in from the west. Upper 30s look quite possible again...and I wouldn't be shocked to see a few 40F+ readings popping up west of the metro by next Friday & Saturday.
With deep snow cover to the south, it looks like our spring warm-up this year may be driven by some "Chinook modified" breezes from the west.
Rapid City may touch 60 degrees Saturday, as downslope winds blow in a milder air mass from the northern Rockies.
I don't see any real "Wurzer Weather" (warm) anytime soon...but hang in there. With no significant snowfall in the forecast and a much higher March sun angle we may have the ability to pop 40F in the next week or so.
Stay tuned.
PH
Breathing Easier: Metro AQI improves; Pine tree effect adds +10F up north
Posted at 8:51 AM on February 27, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Fresh Canadian Breeze
We can thank Canada for our fresher breezes today.
After the Twin Cities Air Quality Index (AQI) spiked Tuesday, a fresh north breeze has cleaned out the "gunk" over much of Minnesota today.
Temps ran +10 to +20 degrees warmer Tuesday in the forests of northern Minnesota. Today's Updraft explains why the "Pine Tree Effect" reaches peak from now into early March.
We'll also tally up some impressive snowfall totals for our neighbors down I-94 in Madison, Milwaukee & Chicago.
11.7" snowfall in Beach Park, IL (near Waukegan in the north suburbs)
10.1" snowfall total in Richmond, IL (far NW Chicago suburbs near WI state line)
14.5" in Sheboygan, WI (north of Milwaukee)
36F high at MSP Tuesday
45F high at Crane Lake in far northern Minnesota Tuesday
60s in Rapid City, SD this weekend?
Breathing Easier: Metro AQI improves overnight
My dad always said our chilly winter breezes "keeps out the riff-raff" in Minnesota.
Our latest cool push did a number on a stagnant, polluted air mass overnight.
A north breeze from a cleaner source region" that we call Canada brought in fresh air and mixed out particulate matter and pushed it south.
Image: College of DuPage
Check out the drop in AQI values for the Twin Cities in the past 24 hours...from 109 to 57 and falling.
"Pine Tree Effect" season in full swing:
With roughly the same air mass in place Tuesday, it was +6F to +9F warmer up north than in the metro...and as much as +20F warmer than in Fargo Tuesday.
Why?
There were some slight differences in could cover...but the bigest factor was the "pine tree effect."
Image: NASA MODIS Terra via UW Madison
Pine trees are remarkably efficient at absorbing and reradiating our stronger late winter sunshine and warming the air near the ground. Areas with fewer trees and deep snow cover act like a mirror, and reflect incoming (short wave) solar radiation right back into space before it can "convert" to "long wave" radiation which is good at heating the air around us.
The pine tree effect peaks this time of year...as a higher sun angle and intensity combines with widespread snow cover to produce the dramatic differences on sunny days with light winds
Close Call: Winter storm pounds Milwaukee & Chicago
I spent 4 years counting up inches in Chicago during my career.
There was plenty to count with the latest "productive" winter storm that raced through the Midwest.
A trace of snow came as close as Rochester and La Crosse...but heavy totals fell around Madison, Milwaukee & Chicago.
After one of the least snowy winters on record, the tide turned in February in Chi-Town.
Some details from the Chicago NWS.
Forecast: Cooler weekend breezes - signs of a thaw late next week?
You'll feel the cooler breezes the next few days as Canadian air sags south.
Monday's clipper looks to target southwest Minnesota...and may produce a few inches of snow for Luverne & Pipestone.
There are signs of a thaw late next week, as Pacific air mass tries to push in from the west. Upper 30s look quite possible again...and I wouldn't be shocked to see a few 40F+ readings popping up west of the metro by next Friday & Saturday.
With deep snow cover to the south, it looks like our spring warm-up this year may be driven by some "Chinook modified" breezes from the west.
Rapid City may touch 60 degrees Saturday, as downslope winds blow in a milder air mass from the northern Rockies.
I don't see any real "Wurzer Weather" (warm) anytime soon...but hang in there. With no significant snowfall in the forecast and a much higher March sun angle we may have the ability to pop 40F in the next week or so.
Stay tuned.
PH
Smog Alert: Twin Cities AQI spike; Rumors of snow by Monday?
Posted at 5:06 PM on February 26, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Foggy & Smoggy
It's called a "temperature inversion."
A warmer layer of air about 4,000 feet above our heads trapped pollutants near the ground, and caused the MPCA Air Quality Index (AQI) to spike early Tuesday.
In this edition of Updraft we look at how the inversion helped our foggy & smoggy starts this week, the prospects for breathing easier. We also track "Rocky" as it dumps on Iowa & Chicago...and talk about our prospects for more snow by next Monday.
Is it March yet?
Metro AQI "Spike:" Blame the inversion
"Buoyancy" is a concept we learn in metrology 101.
It's basic physics. Warm air rises. Basically air parcels rise until they encounter air that is warmer above. When that happens, we call that a "stable" situation.
Since temperatures usually cool with height above ground, warmer air aloft is called a "temperature inversion."
The trapping effect causes fog & smog to hang near ground level, and not "mix out" higher into the atmosphere as it does when no inversion is present.
Tuesday's inversion had multiple levels, but the main bubble of warm air is suspended abouyt 4,000 feet above our heads. Temps were in the 20s & 30s where we live, but it was a nicer day about 4k up with temps in the 40s.
Breathing easier later this week?
We've been breathing some quality arctic air this month in Minnesota. With a cold northwest flow most of this month you can see how the AQI has been excellent many days this month. There are very few pollutant sources between here and the Arctic Circle, and a cold northwest wind is not favorable for stagnant air and trapping effect.
Data from MPCA
The good news in the forecast this week is that our northerly wind flow will return, and that should shove some of our "particulate matter" south and bring in some fresh puffs of air from Canada.
Look for AQI numbers to fall to more healthy levels as the week wears on.
Rocky punches away:
After pounding the Texas Panhandle with an historic blizzard, Winter Storm "Rocky" is still punching away in Chicago.
Here's a nice radar overview of the storm courtesy of WSI.
Image: WSI Corp
Here are some early snow totals from Iowa, where snow crept as far north as Des Moines and Waterloo.
In Chicago, the storm has delivered it's worst punch in the west & northwest suburbs, McHenry County and Boone Counties are getting hit hard, with reports of 5"+ snow totals in 3 hours and high winds producing blizzard conditions.
Image: Stephanie Price
NWS local storm reports confirm the ferocity of the storm slamming Chicago.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 421 PM CST TUE FEB 26 20130406 PM SNOW CRYSTAL LAKE, IL M5.0 INCH
TRAINED SPOTTER. STORM TOTAL 5.0 INCHES. SEVERAL VEHICLES IN DITCHES.0220 PM HEAVY SNOW POPLAR GROVE, IL M1.5 INCH BOONE TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL AS OF 200PM. GROUND BLIZZARD IN OPEN AREAS. EAST WEST ORIENTED ROADS...PARTICULARLY RT 173 ARE DRIFTING OVER AND PRACTICALLY IMPASSABLE. ALSO VERY ICY ROAD SURFACE LEADING NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS. VISIBILITY AT TIME OF REPORT 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE.
Storm totals of 5" to 10" of wind whipped snow will blast Chicago's north & west suburbs creating near blizzard conditions overnight.
Scanning the forecast maps: Snow possible next Monday?
Our weather looks quiet in Minnesota for the next few days.
Looking ahead to next week, there appears to be some chance of snow next Monday, according to the GFS model and more recently supported by the Euro.
Snow chance next Monday?
Image: NOAA GFS
The system appears ot be coming from the northwest...so it may not be a major storm, but there is a chance we could see a dusting to a few inches next Monday.
Stay tuned.
PH
"Historic" southern blizzard; Does cold February signal an emerging trend?
Posted at 9:23 AM on February 26, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
"Historic Blizzard"
We're used to the term "blizzard" in these parts.
Images of a Red River Valley "whiteout" come to mind. Closed freeways near Fargo. Jam packed truck stops in Alexandria. School closings in Morris.
But the images coming from the Texas Panhandle are eye opening, even ot hearty Minnesotans. Cars abandoned in snow choked streets? 5 foot snow drifts?
Images: NWS Amarillo, TX
That's the stuff of Minnesota legend...not so much in Texas. Talk about a "Blue Norther."
Winter Storm "Rocky" delivered his punch to Texas, and is still swinging from Kansas to Chicago today. How much snow did Rocky dump?
Where do we stand in Minnesota for snowfall this season? And is our cold February a sign of a trend toward cooler months?
We'll take a look in this edition of Updraft.
19" snowfall total at Amarillo, Texas
75 mph wind gusts in Amarillo Monday
5 foot snow drifts
37F high in the Twin Cities Monday
7" snow depth at MSP this morning (we melted 1" yesterday)
-2.6F February temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport
+1.0F estimated temps vs. average overall at MSP this "meteorological winter" (Dec-Feb)
Snow Attack:
That may be the best way to describe what happened in Amarillo, Texas Monday.
The Amarillo NWS is calling the 3rd biggest blizzard on record at Amarillo "historic."
Check out the impressive snowfall totals over 1 foot....to as much as 19" on the map below.
Image: NWS Amarillo
This guy braved the height of the blizzard....75 mph winds and all. Really more of a "snow hurricane?"
The hurricane force winds whipped up snow drifts to 5 feet around Amarillo Monday.
I've made the drive from Arizona to Minnesota through the Texas Panhandle. That's one place you don't want to get caught in the open during a blizzard. There's simply no place to hide.
Rocky marches on:
Kansas City is still feeling the effects of Rocky today, where over 1 foot of snow will fall south of town.
It's snowing as far north as Des Moines and heavy snow is on I-35 near Lamoni.
High winds are pounding Chicago on the shore of Lake Michigan, and a slightly "less productive" storm will still produce some 3" to 6" snow totals.
Here are the forecast wind gusts from WGN's (my former Chicago gig) RPM model today.
How to dismantle a drought: 1 storm at a time
This storm is just the latest in a series of systems that has dumped productive rain and snow in the Central Plains over the past few months.
There has been enough rain...and snow to have an impact on drought conditions in Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois and even eastern Iowa.
Heavy snow in from Kansas to Missouri, Iowa and Illinois will feed melt water runoff into the Mississippi watershed this spring...and will help boost river levels. That's going to help ease the "hydrologic" part of the drought...at least in the short term this spring.
The latest drought outlook calls for some improvement in the drought over the central USA, with continued drought "persistence" in the West.
Basically the wetter pattern of the past 3 months in the central USA is "eating away" at the eastern end of the drought.
The agricultural or "soils" drought is more dependent on spring rainfall after the thaw.
February 2013 : Cooler trend emerging?
Today's Twin Cities NWS "Weather Story" highlights the fact that February 2013 was cooler than average in the metro. In fact it was just the 2nd cooler than average month in the past 21 months at MSP Airport.
But what caught my eye is that February was also the 2nd colder than average month in the past 5 months at MSP.
After the run of incredibly warm weather for over a year at MSP, the character of our weather changed last fall. October may have been the first signal of that change.
Looking ahead to March, it's likely that we may be colder than average the first half of the month.
Image: NOAA/CPC
If March finishes colder than average (as I suspect it might) that will make 3 of the past 6 months colder than average in the metro and Minnesota.
Start of a trend? Too early to tell but definitely a "departure" from where we have been the past 2 years.
Stay tuned.
PH
"Rocky" pounds Midwest; Chilly March? Southern sky show dazzles
Posted at 3:29 PM on February 25, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Rocky ll
The Weather Channel is at it again.
Another major winter storm pounds the Midwest, and we have another name. Last week it was "Q." Why not just "Bond?" This week it's "Rocky."
Does "named" snow shovel any differently than regular snow?
No matter what you call the latest version of "Weathertainment" on TWC, it's a major winter storm. This time ground zero is Kansas City, where a solid foot of snow will blanket parts of the city by Tuesday night.
We dodge the bullet on "Rocky" as it takes the southerly route and sweeps toward Chicago Tuesday. But the snow from Rocky may have an impact on Minnesota weather in the weeks to come.
In this edition of Updraft we look at Rocky's punch and how it may help lead to what is looking like a potentially chilly March in Minnesota.
-2.9F vs. average temps at MSP so far in February
8" snow depth at MSP Airport Monday AM
35.5" season snowfall to date at MSP Airport
40.5" average season snowfall to date
18.1" snowfall last winter by this date
70.3" season snowfall so far at International Falls
Twin Cities quick look forecast: Quiet & mild this week
Major winter storm "Rocky" takes aim:
The second major winter storm to pound the Central Plains is dumping heavy snow in from Oklahoma & Kansas through Missouri on the way to Chicago.
The Weather Channel has a nice depiction of the system below, and an overview here.
The southerly storm track means the storm will miss Minnesota. A swath of winter weather warnings runs from the Texas panhandle to Chicago.
Once again, Kansas City is near ground zero, and more than a foot of snow will fall with this wrapped up system. The Topeka NWS lays out the expected snowfall totals, which could go as high as 15" just south of Kansas City.
Our neighbor's down I-94 in Chicago are battening down the hatches for some snow Tuesday.
Deep Midwest snowpack may delay Minnesota spring warm up:
It's called a "feedback loop."
Snow cover to the south and over Minnesota is one reason we may see a more reluctant warm up this March.
Image: NOHRSC
A deep snowpack to the south of Minnesota cools potentially milder air masses that could blow in from the south. It takes energy to melt snow, and that means any air masses that do come north the next couple of weeks will have to blow over snow covered ground....or cooler wetter soils once the snow melts.
The upper air pattern also looks very different from our incredible record March of 2012.
Right now I just don't see a huge warm up in sight. There are some indications we could see snow the weekend of March 9th & 10th...followed by a mid-March cold snap.
My confidence level is not high on that yet however...need to see a few more days of model runs.
Sky Show: "Southern Lights" and comets dazzle
Check out this great animation of two comets and the Aurora Australias or "Southern Lights" from Alex Cherney via spaceweather.com.
TWO COMETS AND THE SOUTHERN LIGHTS:Two comets are now visible in the skies of the southern hemisphere: "Comet Lemmon and Comet PanSTARRS got close enough together on the morning of Feb. 17th to fit into single image with a 35mm lens," reports Alex Cherney of Flinders, Victoria, Australia. "A brief but reasonably strong aurora was a welcome bonus." Click to set the scene in motion:
Comets Lemmon and PanSTARRS sweeping through the Southern Skies from Alex Cherney on Vimeo.
Enjoy!
(1 Comments)MPR Weather Live Blog: Snow totals from Friday's system
Posted at 3:50 PM on February 22, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Snow continues today in our February Snow Blitz. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through today including the metro.
This system is cold, and that makes for an "efficient" snow producer.
Overall I expect numerous 3" to 6" snowfall totals in the metro by late Friday night.
-Track the snow with the latest Twin Cities radar loop
Here are the latest snow totals, advisories as they roll in along with tweets from the MPR Weather Lab below.
(3 Comments)Snow after midnight; Slick Friday AM rush hour; 2" to 5" by Friday evening
Posted at 5:37 PM on February 21, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Radar Watching
It's called a "nowcast."
That's the point when the forecast models have pretty much set the table with an incoming storm, and the radars begin to light up with rain or snow.
We watch radar and satellite trends. Do they fit the story the forecast models have painted for the storm? We watch surface reports. Is there "ground truth" to the radar and satellite trends?
Tonight we watch the radars light up from the south, as the "snow shield" crawls slowly north from Iowa.
This storm has performed as advertised so far, dumping over a foot of snow in parts of Kansas.
In this edition of Updraft we track the snow shield as it moves in, forecast a snowy Friday AM rush hour and count up the inches as the system rolls in.
The "forecasting" is over. Let the "nowcasting" begin.
What you should know now:
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Midnight to 3am snowfall approaches the Twin Cities from the south
Friday AM rush falling snow and temps in the 20s with slick roads & freeways
2" to 5" snowfall expected in the Twin Cities by Friday evening
Snowy scene near Kansas City Thursday
14" snowfall in Rossville, Kansas Thursday (just west of Topeka)
12" snow totals in Olathe, Kansas (southwest Kansas city suburb)
Thundersnow reported in Emporia, Kansas
2" per hour in Ottumwa Iowa Thursday afternoon
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 436 PM CST THU FEB 21 20130435 PM SNOW M4.3 INCH 1 SW OTTUMWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SINCE THE SNOWFALL STARTED AT 2PM.
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ON EAST SIDE OF EMPORIA. THUNDER SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING AND DRIFTING.
Snow Crawls North:
Radars are lighting up in Iowa and southern Minnesota tonight as the northern edge of the snow shield with our next system crawls slowly north.
The leading edge of snowfall crosses the Iowa border tonight, and arrives in the Twin Cities mainly after midnight. It may take some time ot get here as the system bucks dry air over the Twin Cities, but by 3-4 am, snowflakes should be flying close to and in the metro.
Twin Cities NWS does a nice job of breaking down the timing on the incoming system in this "Weather Story."
Snowy Friday AM rush hour:
Your Friday AM commute will feature some snow.
It may not be a major system in terms of inches...but the effects will be there with falling snow Friday morning and temps in the 20s. It doesn't take much to produce icy wheel glaze on ramps, bridges and intersections. Give yourself some extra "stopping distance" Friday.
Here's the latest road and traffic conditions and cameras around the metro from MNDOT.
Heaviest snow totals in southeast Minnesota:
The system is weakening as it moves toward Minnesota. I don't think we'll see any 12"+ totals that the storm produced in Kansas Thursday.
2" to 5" seems like the best bet for the metro. There is a decent shot at a few 6"+ totals in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Right now the weekend looks quiet, with a chance for more snow as another system tracks into the Upper Midwest Monday.
The latest trends are taking that system a little further south & east...and that may mean potentially less snow for the metro.
30s by Sunday and next week will feel remarkably nice after our "Frigid February!"
Enjoy the fresh snow!
PH
Snow returns by Friday AM rush; 2" to 5" metro totals likely by Friday evening
Posted at 8:31 AM on February 21, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Snow Globe: Just Shake
It feels like we're living inside a snow globe this month in Minnesota. Any little shake and the flakes start flying overhead.
Friday snow system is the 8th to sail overhead this month.
This one comes from the Desert Southwest, where snow delighted people in Tucson, Arizona Wednesday and blizzard warnings blanket nearby mountain ranges.
Forecast model trends have been easing on the intensity of snowfall in the metro Friday. The latest runs favor a little less snow, but still a "plowable" event by Friday, and definitely enough to gum up rush hour Friday AM and maybe again Friday PM.
In this edition of Updraft we'll track Friday's incoming system, highlight some excellent snow conditions for Saturday's annual American Birkebeiner Ski Race and keep one eye on another potential snowmaker for Monday & Tuesday.
Is it March yet?
1" to 3" of snow in Tucson, Arizona Wednesday
9 states under Winter Storm Warnings (From Arizona to Iowa)
Winter Weather Advisories starting Thursday evening for southern Minnesota include the metro
After midnight snow likely to arrive in metro after midnight in southern MN to around 3am in metro tonight
30s for highs most of next week...it will get milder!
Up Next: More snow by Friday AM rush hour
Today will be blissfully quiet in Minnesota. The calm before our next February snowmaker.
Heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility is falling in Kansas and Nebraska today.
Here's a look at snowy conditions I-35 in Overland Park in the southwest suburbs of Kansas City.
Heavy snow closed the campus at University of Kansas in Lawrence today.
Up to a foot of (welcome?) snow...and more will blanket drought areas in Kansas and Nebraska.
The latest tracks & trends favor a slower system, with snow staring in southern Minnesota tonight, and arriving in the metro by around 3 am give or take.
It should snow most of the day Friday.
The GFS & Euro have been backing off slightly on snowfall with Friday's system.
The GFS & Euro print out 3.7" snowfall at MSP.
The NAM continues to be the most aggressive, cranking out 4.9" with the system.
The best forecast fit looks like between 2" and 5" will fall in the metro by Friday evening.
With temps in the 20s, expect snowy and slick conditions for both AM & PM rush hours Friday.
The heaviest snowfall along the I-90 corridor where a good 6"+ will likely fall. Travel will be tough in southern Minnesota Friday.
Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com
Regardless of eventual totals, the impacts of this system are likely to stay the same.
-A "plowable" snowfall
-Starting after midnight Thursday night in the metro
-Rush hour issues Friday AM & possibly PM
-Snow tapers Friday evening.
More snow? All about perspective
I know some of you are beginning to tire from our February snow blitz.
14 of 20 days with gnarled commutes is enough to make any of us pull what little hair we have left out.
But I've also head form one group of "winter enthusiasts" who are delighted with our regular doses of fresh powder.
Cross country & downhill skiers are ecstatic about snow conditions.
In fact, trail conditions for Saturday's American Birkebeiner may be some of the best in years.
If you're heading up to Cable & Hayward, here's the info on "The Birkie" this weekend.
If not, you can check out the live webcast Saturday.
Yet another snow system? Keeping an eye on next week
The GFS & Euro still swing another "southwest low" into the Midwest next week. The GFS is further north & faster...the Euro has a more southerly slower system.
I'm not totally convinced on the track of 2nd system yet...the Euro shows signs of taking it further south and keeping the metro on the northern edge of the system.
Still plenty of details to be ironed out, but odds favor another shot of snow somwhere in the Upper Midwest next Monday & Tuesday.
The Euro is giving us a grand total of .62" liquid between the two systems.
If close to accurate, that should equate to between 5" and 10" of new snowfall between the 2 systems for southern Minnesota...and maybe the metro. It's possible next week's system will be warm enough that some of that fall as rain or mixed precip.
I've talked many times with Cathy Wurzer, Kerri Miller & Tom Crann about why the Euro is often a better product than NOAA's GFS. Better "model resolution" and 10 times more supercomputing power make the "Euro" a more refined product.
I also spoke with Cliff Mass from the University of Washington at AMS in Austin, TX in January after his excellent presentation on why NOAA needs a serious upgrade in computing power to match or exceed the capabilities of the European Model. The latest northeast Mega-Blizzard was the latest storm that the "Euro" outperformed NOAA's GFS model days in advance.
Here's a great post from Cliff that shows why the USA is lagging in forecast model computing power.
Image: Clif Mass University of Washington
Let's see how the GFS handles the next 2 snow systems for Minnesota.
Stay tuned!
PH
Pine Tree Effect; Snowy Friday; Excellent "Arctic" air quality
Posted at 8:31 AM on February 20, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Sub-Zero Start
We ran out of degrees again in Minnesota this morning.
Another sub-zero start greets us this winter, leaving no doubt this is still Minnesota...and it is still February.
10.9" snow so far in February? The snowiest month in 2 years? More snow on the way? Yeah, yep & yup.
In this edition of Updraft we count up the negative numbers, look ahead to the next snowfall and tout a surprising benefit of really cold arctic air.
And the fresh snow should lead to an excellent forecast for the Birkebeiner" ski race on Saturday.
Am I reaching a bit here for "silver linings?"
Absolutely!
-3F at MSP Airport this morning
-9F in Eden Prairie
-11F in Lakeville
-27F in Crane Lake
12 days at or below zero at MSP so far this winter (including Wednesday AM)
3 sub-zero days last winter
23 sub-zero days in an "average" winter (1981-2010 data)
Snow Train Keeps Rolling:
It's snowed at least a trace 14 of 19 days so far in February at MSP. Why stop now? The weather hit's just keep on comin' this week. Friday's snow system will mark the 8th to visit southern Minnesota this month.
It's a great recipe for snow. 1 part cold air, 1 active jet stream overhead. Now as the jet stream turns into the southwest, we can and a good splash of Gulf Moisture.
This latest system is a "Panhandle Hooker" that will wind up in Oklahoma Panhandle early Thursday, then shoot northeast into Iowa.
Overnight model trends continue the theme of slightly less snowfall from Tuesday's runs.
The Euro & GFS have backed off to around 3" to 4"
The NAM continues to be the most aggressive with up to 7" with a good 18 hours of snow starting between 9pm & midnight Thursday night... to 7pm Friday evening.
Right now 3" to 6"...maybe 7" looks like a pretty good metro range, but keep in mind the models are likely to change again. It still looks very likely we'll be shoveling and dealing with snowy commutes by Friday morning.
NAM most agressive on Friday snowfall
Image: wxcaster.com
I still think the heaviest totals...a good 6" to 8"+ will fall along the I-90 Corridor in southern Minnesota.
Yesterday on All Things Considered with Tom Crann I chatted with Tom about the early posting of winter storm watches...almost 60 hours in advance of the incoming system.
Here's an interesting excerpt from the Twin Cities regarding the conundrum of meeting "warning criteria" with this system, and the likely advisories that will be issued.
THE IMPACTS OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE THE SE SHIFT RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN THE SNOW TOTALS NORTHWEST. WITH THIS FORECAST...ENDED UP WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN...4 TO 6 INCHES FROM SW MN THROUGH EC MN INTO WRN WI...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN. INTERESTINGLY...THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MEDIAN SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE CIPS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 60 HOUR NAM FORECAST.AS FOR HEADLINE IMPLICATIONS...TIMING CONSTRAINTS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY MEET WARNING CRITERIA. FOR A WARNING...6 INCHES OF SNOW IS NEEDED IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. AT THE MOMENT...THE ONLY PLACE THAT THESE TOTALS ARE MET WITHIN THE TIME LIMIT IS SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH THE 6 INCH AMOUNTS SEEN FARTHER NORTHEAST TAKING A LONG TIME TO GET THERE. FOR EXAMPLE...EAU CLAIRE HAS A TOTAL OF 6.1 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST...BUT IT TAKES 30 HOURS TO GET THERE! AS A RESULT...AT THE MOMENT...IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF THE WATCH WILL END UP AS AN ADVISORY...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A WARNING BEING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
Winter Storm watches and warnings cover a lot of real estate in the central USA.
Tired of snow but want a silver lining? The good news is for once the heaviest snow will fall on the hardest hit drought areas of Kansas, Nebraska and western Iowa.
It may not help frozen soils much, but a foot of heavy snow is a plus for spring runoff and boosting river levels. Will it bust the deepest drought in decades? No...but every storm helps...and this will be a good step in the right direction.
Some of the heaviest snow will fall west of Omaha, where a cool foot is likely by Friday.
One element that's missing from this system for Minnesota is a good supply of bitter air coming in behind the system. Since the upper winds will quickly return to southwest behind the storm, there isn't a good dose of cold air to "spin-up" and deepen the system over Minnesota.
Models easing a little:
Tuesday's model runs suggested a trend of easing back on snowfall just a bit. That said, it still looks like we'll get a good dose of snow in the metro and southern Minnesota late Thursday night and Friday.
The latest model runs suggest a general area of "plowable" 3" to 6" totals around the metro, with a better chance of 4" to 8" in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor.
It's still fairly early so stay tuned as we tweak the numbers based on Wednesday & early Thursday model runs.
A second system looks to bring more snow Monday & Tuesday. In total I could easily see 5" to 10" of additional February snowfall for the metro and southern Minnesota between the 2 systems by next Tuesday.
Image: Iowa State Univeristy
With 31.3" so far this season...we could be close to 40" of snowfall...and near our seasonal "average" snowfall by next Tuesday in the metro.
Don't look now but this is turning into the "real" winter of 2012-'13.
Fresh Yukon Breezes:
The "Minnesota hunch" is back these days. Your neighbors walk around hunched over to ward off the cold. (Does that really work anyway?)
But one surprising aspect of the is cold arctic air is that it is remarkably "clean."
Check out Tuesday's AQI readings from the MPCA.
I can't recall the last time I saw a "zero" reading in Minnesota. Brainerd had "perfect" air quality Tuesday.
You could clearly see the "crisp" outline of the Minneapolis skyline Tuesday coming over the "Ridgedale bump" on I-394 eastbound into the Cities.
With very few pollution sources between here and the Arctic Circle in the Yukon, this is some of the cleanest air we get in Minnesota.
And hey, no mosquitoes.
Pine Tree Effect:
It's getting to be that time of year when deep snow cover reflects sunlight in western Minnesota, and dark pine trees bounce and scatter sunlight to warm the air more efficiently in forested areas in the east and up north.
Ever wonder why the Iron Range can be warmer in the afternoon than Fargo some days?
Here's my explanation of how the "Pine Tree Effect" works.
PH
Enjoy!
Arctic now; Winter Storm Watch ahead; Snowiest month in 2 years
Posted at 9:03 AM on February 19, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Mini Ice Age
This is quickly turning into the "winter of our discontent" for some Minnesotans.
Yes, it's a real winter this year.
As thermometers plummet again we endure yet another day of sub-zero wind chills this month. The busy weather week will peak Friday, with yet another round of "plowable" snow for much of Minnesota.
In this edition of Updraft we look at how February is turning into a mini "ice age" and track the next winter storm(s) heading our way.
A "normal" winter?
What a concept.
Sun Dogs in Mankato this morning
Image: Matt Lutz
14 of 19 days so far this month with snowfall at MSP Airport
10.9" February snowfall total so far at MSP
February 2011 last month we tallied more snow at MSP (16.1")
31.3" season snowfall total so far at MSP
+15.6" vs. last winter
66 mph wind gusts at Grand Marais harbor at 6:56am this morning!
DLH: GRAND MARAIS,MN (GNA) ASOS reports gust of 57.0 knots from NNW @ 1256
Winter Storm Watches posted for southern Minnesota including the metro Thursday night & Friday
So This is Winter:
Just when you thought it was safe to declare winters perpetually wimpy in Minnesota.
February 2013 is going down in the books as a rigorous winter month. This is now the snowiest month in 2 years in the metro.
Temperature trends this (meteorological) winter have taken a nosedive. Check out the monthly average temperature trend since December.
MSP Airport
December +3.7F
January +1.3F
February -1.7F
As we head toward the last week February, it looks as if we're poised to wrap up meteorological winter about +1.1F overall in the metro. That's respectably close to an "average Minnesota winter."
We've shoveled 31.3" of snow so far this winter in the metro...and 70.3" in International Falls.
And we're not even close to done yet.
Next Winter Storm Takes Aim:
The next system in our February snow blitz is on the way.
This is a panhandle hooker, winding up in the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday morning and shooting north into Iowa by Friday.
Our arctic air dome overhead will assure all snow with this one. That's good news for us as forecasters, because at least we should realize the full snow potential with this system.
The Euro (.54") & NAM (.46") are the leaders with liquid precip predictions with this one. The GFS suggests a weaker system with just .26" liquid.
Cold air should bring a "drier" snow...with snow:water ratios as high as 15:1.
It's still early, but if the Euro & NAM solutions pan out...that should translate into a wide area of 4" to 8" snowfall potential across the southern half of Minnesota by late Friday night.
The system will peak in strength over Kansas, Nebraska and western Iowa.
Anywhere from 12" to 20" of snow could fall in these areas...that's great news for the heart of the Midwest Drought.
It won't soak into parched (still frozen) soils, but the melt will help boost river levels this spring.
That's the good side of a heavy winter snowfall.
A second incoming storm brings another chance of snow...possibly mixed with rain and ice early Sunday night into Monday of next week.
That would make our 9th storm this month by my count.
This February, the weather hits just keep on comin'!
Want some good (as in warmer) news?
The ray of hope in the long range forecast is the maps are hinting at a major thaw potential after about March 5th or 6th. Could temps in the 40s, melting snow and dripping icicles be in our future?
Stay tuned.
PH
Old Man Winter will finish strong
Posted at 3:39 PM on February 18, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Snow, Winter 2012-13
We may be able to see the finish line for the meteorological winter that ends on Feb. 28, but we are likely to experience some of the strongest punches of the winter of 2012-2013 in the next ten days.
Blizzard conditions raged in portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon as a strong cold front whipped winds up to 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. Visibility at times was down to a quarter-mile. Meanwhile, wind chill readings plummeted below zero.
Orange shaded area is under a Blizzard warning until midnight. Other highlighted areas are for hazardous winter weather of blowing snow and dangerous wind chill readings.
From the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, Minn:
340 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON CST TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED IN STRETCHES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
* OTHER IMPACTS: DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO FALL AND THE
WIND REMAINS STRONG.
Snowfall accumulation overnight will be minimal, but you'll notice the much colder temperatures, accompanied by biting northwest winds.
Tuesday is expected to feel every bit like mid-winter. February sunshine is not expected to offset single-digit temperatures.
The NAM paints this forecast of bitter temperatures on Wednesday morning.
NAM forecast temperatures and wind near surface level at 6 a.m. CST Wednesday. Note the minimum of 20 below zero or greater in south central Minnesota.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
In the stillness of Saturday morning, hoarfrost formed as a deposit of ice crystal attached to tree limbs. A beautiful portrait of the solitude of a winter morning was captured by photographer Fr. Paul Kammen.
Image:Fr. Paul Kammen
More hoarfrost near Delano, Minn. shortly after daybreak on Saturday.
Image:Fr. Paul Kammen
Eyes are turned to a potential snowfall of several inches in southern Minnesota Thursday into Friday morning.
Computer models have been advising of a developing low pressure to track in a favorable path that could dump several inches of snow in northern Iowa into southern Minnesota beginning Thursday morning.
While the system may not get wound up into a deep low pressure center, the track and the duration of the precipitation could result in plowable snow by Thursday evening.
NAM output of six-hourly liquid precipitation ending at 6 p.m. CST Thursday with surface pressure pattern. Note that the snow-to-water ratio may be on the order of 15 to 1 which could result upwards of six inches of snow in northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota during the day on Thursday.Source:NAM/College of Dupage
The snow area is forecast to expand north on Thursday night. Stay tuned for details on snow accumulation in your neck of the woods.
One of the things I have observed in the past couple of days is the formation of roof top icicles and possible ice dams. This could become a more serious problem if additional snow accumulation takes place on Thursday and Friday.
Image:YAHOO/goldenvalleymn.gov
Read more on formation and dealing with ice jams by clicking here.
On a side note, the wind chill readings were in the 30s this morning in Ft. Myers, Fla. They recovered nicely to a high in the lower 70s this afternoon.
(4 Comments)Heavy snow eases drought slightly in western MN; More snow next week?
Posted at 6:42 PM on February 14, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Winter 2012-13
Chipping Away at Drought
The weather pattern has changed for the wetter, and for the better in Minnesota.
The weather maps look different than during our prolonged dry spell last year. The jet stream is snaking overhead more often, and more frequent storms are the result.
7 snow systems in the first 13 days of February?
They might have locked me up had I predicted it a month in advance. Still, when you look at weather maps every day for a living, you can sometimes see subtle shifts as they begin to happen. El Nino? AO & NAO? "Sudden stratospheric warming?" They help us see trends.
But there's no substitute for watching the weather maps...even the sky every day. It's what I love most about my life and chosen weather career. I'd do it anyway if they didn't pay me. (Please don't tell my MPR managers!)
My weather "Spidey senses" continue to point toward a wetter trend...and the hope for continued above average precipitation as we head toward spring 2013.
Is weather forecasting a science? Absolutely. And a little bit of art too.
The 7th snowfall this month decorates the Weather Lab Thursday.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
Flipping the switch: Wetter pattern may signal the end of "meteorological drought"
Earlier this week I talked about the different kinds of "drought."
Frozen soils mean there is no doubt that Minnesota's "Agricultural Drought" is with us until the ground thaws this spring. Any snow or rain cannot penetrate the frosty soils and icy top layers until the melt.
But our recent parade of snows is putting a dent in the "hydrologic drought" in parts of Minnesota.
Sunday's storm dumped 21" of wet snow in Rothsay, and more importantly 2.21" of liquid.
There is now 4" to 6"+ of water content (snow water equivalent) in the snow pack in western & northern Minnesota. Sunday's storm dumped a month's worth of snow & water between Alex & Fargo in west-central Minnesota. Additional storms will add to the snowpack before the big melt.
This week's updated U.S. Drought Monitor shows subtle improvement in "hydrological drought" from heavy snows in western Minnesota between Alexandria and Fargo.
The percentage of "severe" or higher drought in Minnesota dropped from 83.59% to 69.79% this week. Basically that means a chunk of western Minnesota improved one category in drought designation due to recent snows.
MPR & UM climate specialist Dr. Mark Seeley expands on the subtle but important changes in this preview of this week's Weather Talk.
As a result of the frequent snows the U.S. Drought Monitor changed some western and northern Minnesota counties from severe drought to moderate drought this week, the first substantial change in drought status in several weeks. The snow pack on the landscape is estimated to have as much as 2-4 inches of liquid water equivalent stored in it. The accumulated moisture surplus this month should help with surface hydrology (runoff flowing into lakes and streams), but will likely provide little help for soil moisture recharge as long as the ground is frozen.
All that water will run into lake & rivers and help boost levels this spring.
But ironically, if we get enough additional snow...and a quick warm up with rain this spring on snowpack and frozen ground...we could be in the odd situation of having a "hydrologic flood" on top of an "agricultural drought."
One thing is for sure. With winter snowfall and moisture above normal in much of Minnesota, and 7 storms in the first 13 days of February, our "meteorological drought" is easing for now.
NOAA's CPC outlooks favor above average snow & rain right through spring.
Both the GFS & Euro models suggest another potential winter storm for Minnesota next Thursday & Friday.
Let's hope so.
Now all we need is more snow to boost river & lakes, a nice slow warm up until the thaw so we don't flood, and much above average rainfall once the ground thaws to soak into parched soils.
Not too much to ask for... right?
PH
Clipper "Cupid" snow totals; Is "meteorological drought" easing?
Posted at 7:21 AM on February 14, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Winter Wonderland
Valentine's Day arrives with a fresh snow-frosted landscape.
Our overnight "Cupid Clipper" dumped some impressive snowfall totals in north of the north metro. The heavy wet snow was almost magical, and trees in the woodland are covered with a stunning frosting of fresh white. The beauty that is a "Minnesota winter" is on full display today.
In this edition of Updraft we tally the totals, and gauge the depth of the cold outbreak ahead. Will we dip below zero one more time this winter in the metro?
Is our snowy pattern a sign that our long "meteorological drought" may be easing at last?
Image: snowcrystals.com
7 separate snow events in Minnesota in the 1st 13 days of February
1.8" "official" snowfall total at MSP Airport with latest Clipper
1.5" at NWS Chanhassen
2" in Stillwater & Watertown
3" in Plymouth in the northwest metro
3.5" in St. Cloud
3.8" in Eau Claire
3" to 5" reported in Monticello north of the metro
Snowy pattern resumes next week?
Temps crash tonight into the weekend
Near 0F in the metro by Saturday AM
Effective Clipper:
Our latest overnight Clipper was a productive one.
The upper level and surface center of spin or "vort max" tracked right over the Twin Cities metro...a little further south than the models indicated yesterday.
That put the "pivot point" right over the southern metro on radar overnight, and kept the northern half of the metro in snow for a couple of extra hours.
Image: WxUnderground
The result was some impressive heavy wet snow for the northern metro. Here are the early snow totals from Twin Cities NWS.
Valentine's Forecast: Warm hearts & cold hands tonight
A chilly northwest wind will have you and your sweetheart moving briskly to and fro tonight.
Our latest cold front is part of a remnant polar air mass that's been lingering in central Canada. Not as cold as what we saw in January, but you'll notice the chill through Saturday.
With fresh snow cover and the center of high pressure overhead, temps will fall below zero again in much of Minnesota. Metro suburbs may dip below zero Friday & Saturday AM...and MSP will hover near zero by Saturday AM.
Tipsy Turvy: Temp roller coaster ahead
We'll ride a bit of a temperature roller coaster in the next week, as winds shift from north to south and back again.
Image: Iowa State University
Late February's higher sun angle and two more hours of daylight since December means periodic thaws come easier now. But the overall pattern I'm looking at suggests winter is in no hurry to leave this year.
Flipping the switch: Wetter pattern may signal the end of "meteorological drought"
Earlier this week I talked about the different kinds of "drought."
Frozen soils mean there is no doubt that Minnesota's "Agricultural Drought" is with us until the ground thaws this spring. Any snow or rain cannot penetrate the frosty soils and icy top layers until the melt.
But our recent parade of snows is putting a dent in the "hydrologic drought" in parts of Minnesota. There is now 4" to 6"+ of water content (snow water equivalent) in the snow pack in western & northern Minnesota. Sunday's storm dumped a month's worth of snow & water between Alex & Fargo in west-central Minnesota. Additional storms will add to the snowpack before the big melt.
All that water will run into lake & rivers and help boost levels this spring.
But ironically, if we get enough additional snow...and a quick warm up with rain this spring on snowpack and frozen ground...we could be in the odd situation of having a "hydrologic flood" on top of an "agricultural drought."
One thing is for sure. With winter snowfall and moisture above normal in much of Minnesota, and 7 storms in the first 13 days of February, our "meteorological drought" is easing for now.
NOAA's CPC outlooks favor above average snow & rain right through spring.
Both the GFS & Euro modles suggest another potential winter storm for Minnesota next Thursday & Friday.
Let's hope so.
Now all we need is more snow to boost river & lakes, a nice slow warm up until the thaw so we don't flood, and much above average rainfall once the ground thaws to soak into parched soils.
Not too much to ask for... right?
PH
Will heavy snow help ease "Hydrologic Drought" in some areas?
Posted at 6:51 PM on February 11, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Winter 2012-13
Liquid Gold
Some call snow "White Gold."
The term certainly fits if you run a ski area or a snowplow for a living. My good neighbor and plow guy Howie is making off like a bandit the past 2 weeks plowing my driveway after a slow start to this snow season.
For our rivers and lakes, the deep snowpack that now sits over western & northern Minnesota is more like "Liquid Gold" when it melts this spring.
If you think weather terms are complicated, try talking to a hydrologist sometime.
It turns out there are several types of "drought." Hydrologic or Agricultural? Short term or long term?
In this edition of Updraft we try and sort out which is which, and how our big weekend snow in parts of Minnesota may have helped eased one type of drought in some areas.
21" weekend snowfall totals at Rothsay, MN (Wilkin, County)
24" current snow depth at International Falls
61.5" season snowfall totals at International Falls so far
Image: Midwest Regional Climate Center
Prolific snow totals:
Sunday's storm produced some incredibly prolific snowfall totals the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.
Check out some selected totals from the Grand Forks NWS.
Snow Totals From February 10, 2013 StormTHE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS AS MEASURED BY NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...LOCAL EMERAGENCY MANAGERS AND MEDIA MEMBERS. A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW FELL FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 21 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ROTHSAY...WITH MANY TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE.
2-DAY SNOW TOTALS FOR MONDAY (02/11/13)
AS OF 11:55 AM CSTNORTH DAKOTA 2-DAY SNOW FALL
LOCATION (COUNTY): AMT(IN) REPORTSFAIRMOUNT (RICHLAND).........................20.0 (2)
LIDGERWOOD (RICHLAND)........................15.5 (2)
MCLEOD (RICHLAND)............................15.0 (2)
CAYUGA (SARGENT).............................14.0 (2)
FORMAN (SARGENT).............................13.0 (2)
DURBIN (CASS)................................12.5 (2)MINNESOTA 2-DAY SNOW FALL
LOCATION (COUNTY): AMT(IN) REPORTSROTHSAY (WILKIN).............................21.0 (2)
PELICAN RAPIDS 6E (OTTER TAIL)...............17.5 (2)
ELBOW LAKE VILLAGE 8ENE (CLEARWATER).........17.0 (2)
UNDERWOOD 8NNE (OTTER TAIL)..................17.0 (2)
LONG LOST LAKE (CLEARWATER)..................17.0 (2)
BECIDA (HUBBARD).............................17.0 (2)
BEMIDJI 6SE (BELTRAMI).......................16.0 (2)
ITASCA U OF M (CLEARWATER)...................16.0 (2)
BRECKENRIDGE 3SE (WILKIN)....................15.7 (2)
FERGUS FALLS 4E (OTTER TAIL).................14.5 (1)
OTTERTAIL (OTTER TAIL).......................14.2 (1)
PELICAN RAPIDS (OTTER TAIL)..................14.0 (2)
BLACKDUCK (BELTRAMI).........................13.0 (1)
BAGLEY (CLEARWATER)..........................12.0 (1)
DEER CREEK 2WSW (OTTER TAIL).................11.7 (1)
WADENA (WADENA)..............................11.5 (2)
SABIN (CLAY).................................11.2 (2)
NEW YORK MILLS (OTTER TAIL)..................11.0 (2)
TWIN VALLEY (NORMAN)..........................9.8 (2)
MOORHEAD (CLAY)...............................9.7 (2)
Northern Minnesota also picked up some respectable snowfall this weekend. Here are some totals from the Duluth NWS.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 KETTLE FALLS MN ST. LOUIS 0910 AM
10.50 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0718 AM
9.60 2 SSW KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS 0718 AM
9.50 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 1130 PM
7 INCHES AT 627 PM.
9.10 3 WNW GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0903 AM
8.60 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0756 AM
8.60 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0646 AM
8.60 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 0635 AM
8.60 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0628 AM
8.60 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 0553 AM
8.50 FORT RIPLEY MN CROW WING 0833 AM
8.50 3 SE FINLAND MN LAKE 0742 AM
WOLF RIDGE ENVIRONMENTAL LEARNING CENTER
8.50 HIBBING MN ST. LOUIS 0551 AM
8.50 25 NW GRAND MARAIS MN COOK 0950 PM
8.50 25 NW GRAND MARAIS MN COOK 0950 PM
8.30 6 ESE BOULDER LAKE MN ST. LOUIS 0842 AM
8.10 KEEWATIN MN ITASCA 1026 PM
8.00 BEAVER BAY MN LAKE 0903 AM
8.00 TOGO MN ITASCA 0759 AM
7.70 WEST DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0943 PM
Piling Up:
This weekend's storm is the last big dump in what's been a fairly productive winter so far in the northern half of Minnesota.
International Falls has tallied 61.5" of snowfall so far this winter. That's +11.3" vs. average, and a full +32.3" vas last winter!
There is now 24" of snow at "The Falls" and snow depth in northern Minnesota is running at or above seasonal averages in many areas.
Check out Monday's snow depth around Minnesota from NOHRSC.
Image: NOHRSC
Even more important, is what hydrologists lovingly call "Snow Water Equivalent" or SWE. This is where the rubber meets the road for spring flood and runoff forecasts. SWE tells us how much "water" is stored in the snowpack under our feet.
As you can see, there is now a good 4" to 6"+ of water in the snow in western and northern Minnesota. That is like 5" of rain....hopefully slowly "time released" as we melt into spring in the next 4-8 weeks. Any additional storms will add to that total.
This water will runoff into rivers and lakes, boosting drought dented lake levels and stream flows this spring.
Image: U.S. Drought Monitor via UNL
Drought: What's in a name?
All droughts are not created equal. Here are some definitions that seem to capture the differences in different types of "drought."
Meteorological drought--This type of drought is all about the weather and occurs when there is a prolonged period of below average precipitation, which creates a natural shortage of available water.
Agricultural drought --This type of drought occurs when there isn't enough moisture to support average crop production on farms or average grass production on range land. Although agricultural drought often occurs during dry, hot periods of low precipitation, it can also occur during periods of average precipitation when soil conditions or agricultural techniques require extra water.
Hydrological drought--This type of drought occurs when water reserves in aquifers, lakes and reservoirs fall below an established statistical average. Again, hydrological drought can happen even during times of average or above average precipitation, if human demand for water is high and increased usage has lowered the water reserves.
Yes, this weekend's heavy snows (and hopefully more to come) should help ease the "hydrologic" part of the drought.
The "agricultural" or "soils" part of the drought will have to wait until the spring thaw.
We'll need above average rainfall once the ground thaws in spring to put a dent in Minnesota's still severe "agricultural" drought.
NOAA's CPC is still forecasting some improvement in drought conditions in the Upper Midwest this spring.
Image: NOAA/CPC
My read on the weather maps agrees we should see a wetter pattern in late Feb into early March.
Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.
PH
Storm fades today; Sets records; Quiet pattern; Seesaw temps this week
Posted at 8:37 AM on February 11, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Icy spruce tips Monday at the Weather Lab
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
Sideswiped
There are several remarkable aspects of Minnesota's weekend winter storm.
With 18" snowfall totals, major freeway closures, and several weather records this storm packed plenty of punch and a few surprises.
Today in Updraft we wrap up the storm that was, and look forward to the week ahead.
Sunday snow in the west metro
Blizzard Warnings continue through noon in western Minnesota
18" snowfall total reported at Audubon, MN in Becker County
9" to 17" snowfall totals in west central Minnesota
5" to 12" snowfall totals from Brianerd to Duluth
.62" new daily precipitation record at MSP Airport for February 10th
6.7" new Daily snowfall record for St. Cloud, MN
9.3" New daily snowfall record at Fargo
MNDOT Cam shows spinout accident on I-94 at Highway 280 last night.
Storm packed a punch:
Sunday's storm came in on time and delivered some major wind, rain and snowfall to Minnesota.
The hardest hit areas are from the eastern Dakotas into west central Minnesota toward Cass County and the North Shore, where a widespread band of anywhere from 6" to 18" of snow came down.
The winds with this system are impressive, especially in western Minnesota where gusts have topped 40 mph.
Check out the cool and beautiful wind map as the storm center slid south of MSP late Sunday.
Image: hint.fm/wind/
I can't recall seeing this many reports of blizzard conditions at one time recently in Minnesota.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
0430 AM BLIZZARD ALEXANDRIA 45.87N 95.38W
02/11/2013 DOUGLAS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
DISPATCH REPORTS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. SOME DRIFTING ON ROADWAYS. INTERSTATE 94
CLOSED WEST OF MN 127.
0525 AM BLIZZARD MORRIS 45.59N 95.91W
02/11/2013 STEVENS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
LIMITIED VISIBILITY IN THE TOWN OF MORRIS. TRAVEL IS NOT
ADVISED ACROSS THE COUNTY. ROADS ARE DRIFTED OVER IN
MORRIS. WIND GUST OF 40 MPH RECORDED AT MORRIS AWOS AT
452 AM.
0530 AM BLIZZARD OLIVIA 44.78N 95.00W
02/11/2013 RENVILLE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS. WIND GUST OF 37 MPH
AT OLIVIA AWOS AT 450 AM.
0530 AM BLIZZARD APPLETON 45.20N 96.02W
02/11/2013 SWIFT MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
DISPATCH REPORTS NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS. WIND
GUST OF 43 MPH RECORDED AT APPLETON AWOS AT 1253 AM.
0530 AM BLIZZARD MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
02/11/2013 CHIPPEWA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
NO PLOWS OR DEPUTIES HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED. WIND GUST OF
39 MPH AT MONTEVIDEO AWOS AT 214 AM.
0536 AM BLIZZARD 1 W GRANITE FALLS 44.81N 95.56W
02/11/2013 YELLOW MEDICINE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WIND GUST OF 38 MPH AT
GRANITE FALLS AWOS AT 351 AM.
0540 AM BLIZZARD REDWOOD FALLS 44.54N 95.11W
02/11/2013 REDWOOD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
NO PLOWS OR DEPUTIES HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED. WIND GUST OF
39 MPH RECORDED AT REDWOOD FALLS ASOS AT 453 AM.
The overall timing & scope of the system laid out about as expected days in advance.
The Twin Cities was on the edge of heavy snow as expected.
Snowfall ranged from 2" to 5" generally, a couple of inches below our MPR forecast of 3" to 8" and not reaching the 7" to 12" highlighted in the enhanced NWS Winter Storm Warning wording issued on Saturday. The back end of the system was not quite as productive as advertised last night, but the 1st wave Sunday came in with a punch.
In every weather staff I've worked in over the years we always laugh about how people just remember the highest number of inches put out in a forecast. There are several aspects to forecasting a storm.
Everything else can be right on...you saw the storm coming 6 days in advance and gave notice...you forecast rain, "plowable" snow, & poor driving conditions and that happens. You nailed the precip timing, wind & temps... but if you miss the ultimate snow total by an inch or two... somehow the forecast was "off?"
Nature of the beast. On to the next system.
Seesaw temps this week:
Today's colder winds will ease by tomorrow, as temps return to the 30s.
Our mid-week mild up lasts through Wednesday. Then the next cold front pushes in late this week, and temps will return to brisk levels this weekend.
The good news?
The cold won't last forever...and won't be as frigid as what we endure two weeks ago.
There are signs that we may see a period of 30s returning again in about two weeks.
There are also signs of more wet systems coming through in the last part of February.
NOAA's CPC agrees.
"Potentially" good news for our rivers and lakes that can use every drop of moisture before spring.
Did I just say ...spring?
PH
Heavy snow to blanket the upper Midwest; storm warnings continue through tonight
Posted at 6:38 AM on February 10, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13
Snow, mixed at time with sleet and freezing rain in southeast Minnesota, will spread over the state today. The track of the surface low continues to validate the forecast that the heaviest accumulation will occur west and north of the Twin Cities, where 8 to 12 inches may fall by later tonight.
In the Twin Cities metro, snow will be wet and come in heavy bursts this morning. There will likely be a lull in the snowfall intensity at times this afternoon. Accumulations are expected to range from 3 inches in Farmington and Hastings to as much as 8 inches from Rogers to Blaine by late tonight.
The IR satellite image from this morning depicts the coldest cloud tops in blue color, with some discontinuity to the precipitation associated with the coldest clouds over the Dakotas and Minnesota. IR satellite captured at 545 a.m. CST:
Source:NOAA
As the surface low travels across Iowa and southeast Minnesota today it will produce bouts of heavy snow through central and northern Minnesota. The snow to water ratio of the liquid precipitation is likely to be about 10 to 1. This translates to snowfall accumulations of 8 to more than 12 inches.
Strong northwest winds will kick in as the low center moves to central Wisconsin tonight. Blowing and drifting snow will result in near blizzard conditions in rural locations. GFS model valid at midnight CST tonight, with surface pressure pattern and the six hourly accumulated precipitation:
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Winds are likely to gust above 35 mph on the backside of the low tonight through Monday morning reducing visibilities in blowing and drifting snow.
For those that have been monitoring the forecast discussion on the favored forecast model, it appears that the final outcome might be a draw. The low pressure center is expected to travel through southeast Minnesota this evening.
Colder air is forecast to settle over the state on Monday night, with overnight lows dropping below zero over the fresh snow cover.
Travel with caution today and tonight, particularly heading north from the Twin Cities.
Craig Edwards
Storm still on track, but not the fast track; near blizzard conditions Sunday night
Posted at 3:46 PM on February 9, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
The storm we've been anticipating since mid week emerged in eastern Colorado late this afternoon. Models have slowed down the northeast movement slightly, thus delaying the onset of significant precipitation until later tonight and Sunday morning.
The winter storm warning is highlighted in pink, with blizzard warning highlighted in orange:
Warnings are in effect for late tonight through Sunday night. Minneapolis and St. Paul are included in the warning. The Twin Cities metro area is teetering on the southern boundary of heavy snow, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate on Sunday through Monday morning.
A wintry mix, including sleet and freezing rain, is expected in the southeast corner of Minnesota and west central Wisconsin on Sunday.
For a detailed look at your local forecast explore the NWS website here. You'll see the expansive area covered in winter storm warnings.
This storm will blanket a large portion of the Midwest with generous precipitation.
Liquid precipitation totals from the snow and wintry mixture will be beneficial to the regions that have experienced a relatively dry autumn and winter season.
Two day precipitation total from tonight through Monday:
Source:NOAA/HPC.
Snow mixed with rain or freezing rain will develop in southwest and west central Minnesota tonight and spread east. The heaviest precipitation is likely to occur Sunday through Sunday evening.
Here is the ensemble track for the surface low center from NOAA's NCEP:
The most recent Rapid Update Cycle forecast model slows the track of the low moving through Nebraska and Iowa on Sunday. There is also evidence of a dry slot, or a pause in the precipitation for a time, on Sunday in south central Minnesota.
Strong northwest winds kick in behind the low as it moves into Wisconsin on Sunday night. Falling temperatures will make for biting wind chill readings on Monday.
Travel conditions are likely to be difficult on Sunday through early Monday morning. Please be prepared for very hazardous travel in open areas Sunday night due to reduced visibilities of blowing and drifting snow.
Craig Edwards
(1 Comments)Winter storm begins to crank up; track the impact in the upper Midwest
Posted at 6:19 AM on February 9, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13
The National Weather Service has painted a large swath of the landscape from Wyoming to Wisconsin in winter storm watches and warnings. Explore the specifics of your location here.
Little has changed in the expectation for the heaviest snow accumulation to occur late tonight through Sunday from the eastern Dakotas to northeast Minnesota, where amounts may exceed 10 inches.
Probability of snow of 8 inches or more from 6 a.m. CST Sunday to 6 a.m. CST Monday.
NOAA's meteorologists suggest this model track as a consensus forecast, or a blend of the output from a variety of computer models.
The time stamps are in GMT. 00Z Monday translates to 6 p.m. CST Sunday.
Light snow is possible today, but the heaviest snowfall is expected after midnight tonight through Sunday evening.
The GFS model dumps a generous amount of liquid precipitation in close proximity to the Twin Cities on Sunday morning.
Six-hourly precipitation ending at noon CST Sunday. Yellow shaded area is more than a half inch of liquid. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
The temperature profile is critical to the precipitation type in the metro region of the Twin Cities. Milder air is forecast to nose into southeast Minnesota at the low levels on Sunday.
While surface temperatures may be close to 35 degrees with a wintry mix in Farmington, it could be 32 in Rogers with heavy snow falling.
Paul Huttner's forecast of the potential for a considerable gradient on the snow accumulation is on track. For now, the best forecast in east central Minnesota is for a wintry mix, with the heaviest snowfall in the northwest metro.
NWS forecast of Sunday's maximum temperatures.
You can track the precipitation on the Weatherunderground regional radar.
Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter storm.
Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)Weekend Winter Storm: Models remain split on metro snowfall totals
Posted at 6:42 PM on February 8, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Razor's Edge:
All systems are still "go" for a major winter storm this weekend in a big swath of Minnesota.
As winter storm and Blizzard watches evolve into warnings this weekend, what seems clear is that the heaviest part of the storm will produce some impressive 6" to 12"+ snowfall totals by Monday AM.
I had hoped Friday's model runs would provide greater clarity on the eventual storm track this weekend. That was wishful thinking.
The latest trends on our weekend storm revolve around one major factor for the metro. The storm track. North or south?
In this Updraft update, I lay out the most likely heavy snow band that will ride the northwest edge of the Twin Cities, and talk about what happens to metro snowfall totals if the "southern solution" wins the day.
Either way, batten down the hatches. After a glorious winter Saturday, a major winter storm is on the way by Sunday that will affect travel conditions in most of Minnesota.
It's easy to shrink from the difficulty of "making the call" on an incoming storm.
To be sure...this storm is a bear. A big angry bear...and I use that term kindly. I may be as wrong as the next (weather) guy/gal. Still, you'll get my best read on the storm..and my commitment on what I think the most likely scenario is today... for better or worse below.
Take your best shot at me Monday morning if you like, but this is the best I can do reading this unwieldy set of models right now.
And yes...there's a big storm out east. But we are Minnesota Public Radio Radio. And... all weather is "local." So, here's my best take at this point on what will happen in your backyard this weekend.
Model Disparity:
There are usually differences in the suite of computer models we look at every day. Just not this much.
Friday's late trends do show some movement on NOAA's models that brings them closer to the "southern solution" favored all week by the "Euro."
Why is that important for the Twin Cities?
A more southerly storm track means a colder atmosphere over most of the metro. That means less mixed precip, and more snow.
At this point I am still leaning toward the Euro for this weekend's system.
We still have the Friday night and Saturday morning model runs before the snow flies, but here's my latest thinking on this weekend's weather system.
The System:
A "Colorado Low" that will likely track through Nebraska, Iowa, southeast Minnesota to near Green Bay by Monday.
Southerly wind flow feeding into the system will inject plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will be a much "wetter" storm than our recent snows.
Timing:
Snow will break out in southwest Minnesota Saturday night, and move into the Twin Cities after midnight. Precip will continue on and off through Monday AM.
Temperature profile and precip type:
At this point I have high confidence that the heaviest snow band will lay out northwest of the metro.
A wide swath of 6" to 12"+ snowfall is likely to lay out from Aberdeen to Ortonville, Willmar, Alex, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Hinckley and Duluth.
This is likely the "sweet spot" for all snow and heavy snow with this system.
Metro likely on the edge of heavy snow:
For the metro, it's all about the storm track.
I'm encouraged that NOAA's GFS has made small, but reluctant progress in shifting it's track south closer to the Euro.
Friday afternoon's NAM & GFS output fell into the 5" to 6" range at MSP Airport.
If the Euro is right, the "rain/snow line" will stay just south of the metro, meaning mostly snow for the greater Twin Cities...and potentially heavier totals creeping into the metro from the northwest.
Either way, there will probably be a fairly large "snow gradient"...a range of snowfall from SE to NW across the metro. Rogers will likely be shoveling & plowing more snow than Hastings by Monday morning.
My best read on an early forecast for metro snowfall is for a range for the Twin Cities ranging from 3" (SE) to 8" (NW).
If the Euro track verifies and the metro remains all snow, I could see the heavy 6" to 12" creeping into the metro from the northwest.
Bottom Line: Expect snow and mixed precip to break out in southwest Minnesota Saturday evening, and move into the metro after midnight. Travel will be impacted in most of Minnesota Sunday, including I-94 between the metro and Fargo, and I-35 north to Duluth.
Craig Edwards will be looking at the latest model runs overnight & Saturday. I'll jump back in Sunday PM as the storm reaches peak.
Stay tuned!
PH
(1 Comments)Tracking a developing winter storm for the upper Midwest
Posted at 12:37 PM on February 8, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
It's tempting to start tossing out snowfall predictions with the weather system forecast to arrive in the upper Midwest Saturday night. Not a single snow flake has yet to form to our southwest, thus I'll stall on predicting snow amounts for a specific location.
There is no reason, at this time, to make adjustments to the forecast reasoning that was posted this morning. The latest model runs still suggest the best chance for the highest snowfall totals to be northwest of the Twin Cities.
The model ensemble tracks for the center of the surface low are clustering in southern Minnesota on Sunday. Heaviest snow most often falls to the north and northwest of the track of the surface low. Temperatures in southeast Minnesota are likely to reach the lower 30s on Sunday. Precipitation could fall as a cold rain in Rochester.
Source:NOAA
Forecasters might be weighing the more southerly track of the European model by placing the red triangle in Iowa, well south of the ensemble output for Sunday. If the European model verifies, the Twin Cities could experience mostly snow, versus a wintry mix.
The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for the Dakotas through much of Minnesota in western Wisconsin for Sunday. Some locations in western Minnesota could experience near blizzard conditions.
Source:NWS
Here's the latest thinking on the probability of snow accumulating 6 inches or more on Saturday night and Sunday from NOAA NCEP/HPC issued Friday afternoon:
Quiet weather is in store through Saturday morning. Travel is likely to become hazardous after dark on Saturday.
Craig Edwards
Monitoring our weekend storm; NYC to Boston to be blasted by blizzard
Posted at 6:37 AM on February 8, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(11 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13
Forecast model disparity continues, but confidence is growing for a major winter storm to take aim at Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas and northwest Wisconsin.
Paul's been talking about the model differences on the track of the low pressure that will determine the locaton in the upper Midwest that is likely to be buried in heavy snow Saturday night and Sunday.
Twenty years ago I would have been more confident about snow in east central Minnesota, but evidence of decadal warming says not so fast. It appears that relatively mild air is forecast to push as far north as the Twin Cities on Sunday morning and produce a wintry mix.
The National Weather Service has already hoisted a variety of Winter Storm Watches for Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.
As travel from New York City to Boston is brought to a standstill in the next 36 hours, our focus is on the developing storm in the Four Corners area of the southwest US.
IR satellite image from NOAA GOES at 545 a.m. CST
Enhanced clouds/colder cloud tops indicated in blue.
I''ll toss out this text issued out of the Boston NWS Office this morning to give you an idea what is ahead for the folks in the Northeast. Statement issued at 439 a.m. EST.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS MORNING...BECOMING
HEAVY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... WILL FALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED BY THIS
EVENINGS COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
The European Model continues to favor a track that has the highest potential to keep the precipitation snow or a snow/sleet and rain mix.
Source:College of Dupage. Model presents surface pressure pattern at 6 p.m. CST Sunday and temperatures around 5 thousands feet in degrees Celsius.
Forecasters at NOAA NCEP project a track that also favors a path through Iowa on Sunday.
Source:NOAA and College of DupageGFS model places the center of the low in southern Iowa on Sunday at 6 p.m. CST with temperatures into the middle 30s in southeast Minnesota.
I examined the vertical profile from the GFS model forecast for Sunday evening and it predicts a cold rain or a wintry mix for the Twin Cities. You'll just have to stay tuned for updates.
NOAA's forecast of snowfall of 8 inches or more on Sunday and Sunday night looks to be a good prediction based on current model data.
Tracking weekend snow; Winter Storm Watch posted; Euro holds firm on metro snow
Posted at 6:13 PM on February 7, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
I posted a detailed analysis of the weekend system and some inside baseball on the forecast model we look at here, so here's a quick update on the Thursday PM model runs.
"Euro Bomb?"
Things are slowly coming together on our weekend winter storm system for Minnesota.
There are forecast models, and there are forecast models. The European (ECMWF) model is often the best model with approaching storms. This time it picked up on our approaching winter system 1st. Thursday afternoon's "Euro" run continues to insist on a southern storm track that could mean slightly colder temps and more snow in and close to the Twin Cities than NOAA's models currently suggest.
At this point I am leaning more toward the Euro solution.
At this point there are some things I can say with a high degree of confidence, and some things the forecast models have yet to resolve.
What we can say with confidence:
-There will be heavy snow (6"+) in parts of Minnesota this weekend.
-A Winter Storm Watch is now posted for central MN including Morris, Willmar & St. Cloud. These will likely be expanded in the next 24hours, possibly including the Twin Cities.
-Timing on the system will generally fall between Saturday night and Monday morning, with the heaviest snowfall rates coming Sunday.
-The most likely areas for heavy snow (6"+) is from eastern South Dakota through western & central Minnesota to near Duluth, including Morris Alex, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Iron Range, Duluth & the North Shore. Travel will be affected in these areas from Saturday into Monday morning.
-The Twin Cities is still on the edge of the rain snow line with this system for part of the event on Sunday. (What's new?) That said...the Euro model runs are insistent on a southerly track and mostly snow for the Twin Cities...and there are some signs the GFS and other models will trend closer to the Euro solution tomorrow. At this point I am leaning more toward the Euro, which would keep precip in the metro more snow than a mix.
-We will likely have a big "snow gradient" in the Twin Cities with this system, with less snow in the southeast metro and more in the northwest metro...and a range in between.
-Friday's model runs should be more definitive as the system comes ashore on the West Coast.
What we still can't say with confidence:
-Which model storm track solution will ultimately carry the day with this event?
-Exactly how much "mixed precip" will creep into the Twin Cities area Sunday...potentially reducing snowfall totals?
Bottom line at this point:
-A major winter storm is likely for much of Minnesota from Saturday night through Monday AM.
-Winter Storm Watches have been posted for much of western & central MN & will likely expand.
-The best chance for heavy snowfall of 6"+ includes a swath of western & central MN from Morris through St. Cloud, Brainerd the Iron Range & Duluth & North Shore.
-The Twin Cities will be on the edge of heavy snow, and forecasts for snow totals could change dramatically with slight shifts in the storm track Friday & Saturday.
-The best chance for heavy snow appears to be in the northwest metro, but "plowable"...and possibly "heavy" snowfall in parts of the Twin Cities is looking more likely by the hour.
As usual I will post a more specific metro snowfall "inches" forecast late Friday afternoon as we approach 24 hours before the snow flies.
Stay tuned!
PH
Model Mayhem: Major forecast differences on weekend snow potential
Posted at 6:31 AM on February 7, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Model Madness:
So you want to be a meteorologist huh?
All a weather dude can ask for is a little consistency in the forecast models we look at each day. Give us a reasonably accurate idea of the position of high & low pressure centers, temperature profiles, moisture plumes... and we can credibly tell you when to expect rain or snow...and probably how much.
Apparently that's asking way too much this week.
The main suite of numerical forecast models we look at every day is quite literally... all over the map on this weekend's storm.
In this edition of Updraft I'll try and tell you what we know about our incoming weekend storm, what we don't know, and when we might know more.
Chaos Theory
Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. -Wikipedia
Overnight forecast model output for MSP:
.78" liquid from European (ECMWF) model for MSP this weekend
(mostly snow)
.90" from NOAA's GFS (mostly rain or mixed precip)
Wanted: Clarity
This might be the widest variety of solutions for an incoming weather system I have seen in many years.
The various models we look at are presenting differing solutions to this weekend's incoming weather system. The Euro, GFS and NAM among others have different storm tracks and thermal profiles that if correct will produce widely different weather conditions for the Twin Cities this weekend.
Even the same models are signifcantly changing tracks in subsequent runs.
Short range ensemble forecasts (SREF) upper air plots show varied solutions this weekend
Image: NOAA/SPC
Our weekend weather system is still spinning off the Pacific Northwest Coast today, which means it will not work into the CONUS (Continental U.S.) surface and upper air sampling network until tonight or early Friday. That's when we'll get a much better read (more hard data) on the incoming system to feed into the models.
As of now, here's what we know, and don't know about the incoming system, and how the models are handling it.
What we know:
-There is a very high likelihood (95%+) of significant rain or snow in Minnesota & the Upper Midwest this weekend.
-Many locations will likely (80%) pick up at least .50" precipitation by Monday night.
-Some locations will possibly (50/50) pick up to 1" precipitation this by Monday night.
-The bulk of the precip will come in between Saturday night and Monday morning.
What we don't know:
-Where will the surface low ultimately track?
-Where will the rain/snow line (850 millibar 0C isotherm) set up Sunday PM?
-How much of the precip will be mixed rain/sleet/ice vs. snow?
-Where will the heaviest snow band ultimately set up?
How the models are handling the system:
Overnight Euro: (0Z run) The "Euro" was the 1st model to pick up on the system Monday. It has been the most consistent with the surface low track with this storm, and maintains the "southernmost" storm track. The overnight Euro takes the surface low from western KS to northern Iowa by 6pm Sunday...clipping southeast Minnesota on the way to Green Bay by 6pm Monday.
Image: College of DuPage
The Euro also maintains the coldest temperature profile, keeping precip mostly as snow for the Twin Cities area.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
If the .78" liquid output from the Euro falls mostly as snow with temps hovering near freezing as forecast, that would produce "several" inches of heavy wet snow for the metro(especially the NW metro) with an even heavier snow band likely setting up from southwest through central and northern Minnesota.
The GFS: NOAA's GFS model was slow to identify and "resolve" a possible low pressure system for this weekend.
Strike one.
It finally caught on Monday night, but has constantly shifted the storm track westward since then. The overnight (0Z) solution tracks the surface low further NW than Euro...from Denver to Omaha then right over MSP to Lake Superior.
Image: NOAA GFS
The NW track and "warmer" solution would mean a large percentage of the system's precip would fall as rain or a "Wintery Cocktail" Sunday which would greatly reduce snowfall totals in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The mix would change to all snow Sunday night, but by then the dreaded "dry slot" could reduce precipitation. Some wrap around snows could linger through Monday under the GFS scenario.
There would still likely be a band of heavy (6"+) snow from the eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota.
GFS snowfall output for Minnesota
Image: wxcaster.com
The NAM: The 84 hour NAM's latest runs only go to about noon Sunday. But the latest trends (06Z) show an even greater westward shift...taking the surface low over Sioux Falls then almost straight north into the Red River Valley!
That presents yet another radically different solution that the Euro.
Ironically, the major Nor'Easter slamming the northeast with up to 18" of snow Friday may steal the headlines form our weekend system.
Bottom line?
It's still too early to present any credible solutions for this weekend's incoming system.
The best bet for heavy snow still appears to be from the eastern Dakotas into central and northern Minnesota.
If you believe NOAA's NAM and GFS models, warmer air will mean mixed precip in the metro and greatly reduced snowfall. If you believe the Euro, we could be shoveling by Sunday night.
With the way the Euro was (again) the 1st to grab hold of this system, and with at least 10-times the computing power of NOAA's models, I'm not ready to write off the Euro solution and the possibility for heavy snow creeping into the metro (especially the NW metro) Sunday & Monday.
As the system comes ashore into the USA surface and upper air (weather balloon) network by Friday, we should get more consistency from the models on storm track, temp profile and thus precip type.
In "theory" anyway.
Stay tuned.
PH
(6 Comments)Clipper #5 today; Sunday storm trends westward; Another car goes into Lake Minnetonka
Posted at 8:07 AM on February 6, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
February Snow Fest
There's an old saying in the weather biz:
When in a drought don't forecast rain or snow.
Don't look now, but our snow drought appears to be over.
The upper air pattern has changed in the past week. Minnesota now lies underneath an active jet stream howling overhead, delivering snow bursts at regular intervals.
6" of new snow in your backyard since Friday? That would have been a major weather headline had it not come in 1"- 2" doses.
In this quickie Updraft update we focus on snow.
The next ship in our Clipper-Fest sails through today. Then, the forecast models have locked onto a potentially bigger system for Sunday & Monday.
Will Sunday's system evolve into the next "Big One?" At this point it looks more a question of "where " and not "if."
10 hours daylight Wednesday in the Twin Cities
+ 3 minutes we're now gaining 3 munites of daylight per day
February 5th National Weatherperson's Day
per•sis•tence (in meteorology)
In general, the tendency for the occurrence of a specific event to be more probable, at a given time, if that same event has occurred in the immediately preceding time period.
In meteorology, a forecast that the future weather condition will be the same as the present condition.
-Glossary of the AMS
Clipper #5 in a series
The "Snow Fairies" are busy in Alberta these days.
They keep sending regular waves of low pressure southeast into Minnesota. The systems have been remarkably well timed...mostly at night, at roughly 24 hour intervals.
If you were a "Weather Shaman" 500 years ago with only the sky to read and just arrived in Minnesota you might say. "It only snows at night here."
This week's strain of Alberta Clipper has lacked the usual wind-driven, bitterly cold air mass behind the systems. A persistent jet stream flow has kept the core of cold air in Canada and northern Minnesota. Who knows, maybe the climate changes we're observing in Minnesota have neutered our once ferocious Alberta Clippers too.
Today's system, the caboose in the Clipper Train, breaks with that pattern and bring some rare "daytime" snow to Minnesota.
A band of snow is easing eastward across the area today. The potential snowy window should slide east of the metro by mid-afternoon.
A 6 hour window of snow should produce another Coating to 1"+ in the metro. If the system gets going a little faster I could see some isolated 2" totals, especially in the east metro and western Wisconsin. The system will strengthen and produce heavier snows in Wisconsin.
Northern Minnesota should pick up another 1" to 2"+ as a rule.
Sunday Winter Storm? Looking better by the hour
The next major winter storm for Minnesota, and possibly the metro could roll in Sunday.
I've been talking about the how Euro model has picked up on the system since Monday. Now the GFS "locked on" to the potential for a major winter storm Sunday & Monday.
The latest trends appear to center around a "Panhandle Hooker" system. The latest model trends tracks appear to center on a westward track shift. That's a "climatologically favored" track for heavy snow in central & northern Minnesota, with a mixed bag scenario that could include more rain & ice from the Twin Cities south.
The models are cranking out some impressive totals in the past 24 hours.
The 0Z Euro cranked out an impressive .57" liquid for Sunday.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
The 12Z GFS was closer to .65" liquid, mixed as rain, ice & snow.
It's still too early to credibly toss snowfall amounts around yet...but you can do the math. That's a pretty good pile of snow for somebody if it pans out.
Right now that "somebody" appears to be in a swath from eastern South Dakota through Alexandria, Brainerd, The Iron Range & the Arrowhead.
Expect some more "model gyrations" this week as the models try and grab hold of the potential system.
Panhandle Hooker systems produce much wetter snows than our recent 30:1 Alberta Clipper fluff, more like a 10:1 snow to water ratio.
The track, temperature profile and favored heavy snow zones will probably change again with this system before the weekend.
Stay tuned, and keep the shovel handy!
Unsafe Ice: Another car goes into Lake Minnetonka
The giant pressure ridge consumed another car near Minnetonka Yacht Club on Lake Minnetonka Tuesday evening.
Steve Erdahl helped rescue the lucky driver, who apparently got out through the back hatch.
Image: Steve Erdahl
As many as 15 vehicles have gone through the ice on Tonka in the past few weeks.
This is the year to stay off of lake ice unless you absolutely know about changing conditions where you're headed.
PH
(4 Comments)Snow Fairy delivers again; Next Clipper Wednesday; Euro: Big snow Sunday?
Posted at 9:25 AM on February 5, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Groundhog Days
I feel a little like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day.
The alarm goes off. I keep waking up at the same time (sans the Sonny & Cher) and talking to a guy named "Phil" on the radio. Every morning the "Snow Fairy" has come and dumped another inch of snow on my driveway. I get through the day, go to bed and wake up to more snow.
Repeat.
If there are "Dog Days" in summer, these must be the "Groundhog Days" of winter.
Today in Updraft we track the next Clipper due in tomorrow, tally up the increasing snow cover across Minnesota and talk about a "big maybe" Sunday storm that could dump some big snow on Minnesota...and maybe the metro.
Is our number finally up?
1" snowfall overnight in St. Louis Park and Deephaven
6" snow depth now at MSP Airport
23" snow depth at International Falls
Clipper #5 due in tomorrow with another shot of light snow
Euro Bomb? European model continues to ramp up potential weekend snow storm
Fresh snow crystals at the Weather Lab this week
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
Currier & Ives
It's classic winter scenery in Minnesota these days.
Our Clipper Parade has brightened up the landscape. We've tallied 5" of snow since Friday at the Weather Lab.
Snow depth in Minnesota is steadily increasing, and we have some pretty respectable snow on the ground now. There's actually enough quality snow to play in.
Snow dounts on a frozen lake
Image: Toey Lidstone
Rochester 5"
Twin Cities 6"
St. Cloud 6"
Duluth 11"
International Falls 23"
Image: NOHRSC
Nationally 41.5% of the CONUS is snow covered as of today. That compares with 65.8% one month ago, and just 27.3% last year.
Here are the stats for snow cover in the Upper Midwest from NOHRSC.
Clipper-Fest Continues: #5 due Wednesday
The next...and last in our Clipper series rolls through Wednesday. Like the previous 4 systems, this one looks to produce generally light snows on order of 1" to 2" in most areas.
Image: Iowa State University
Euro Bomb? ECMWF painting big weekend snows
The overnight Euro runs ramped up the notion of big snow this weekend.
The latest runs spin up a potent low pressure center near Omaha and tracks it into Wisconsin Sunday night & Monday.
Image: ECMWF via College of DuPage
That's a "climatologically favored" track for heavy snow in central and southern Minnesota.
If it pans out...we could see our biggest snow since December 9th in these parts.
The Euro output for the Twin Cities is cranking out 22.7mm (.89") liquid precip for the metro from Saturday night through Monday morning.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
That would be a good pile of "several inches" of snow if it verifies.
NOAA's (operational) GFS is not buying into this system so far. But some of the "model ensembles" are picking up on a ghost of a system.
Let's see if the GFS picks up on this in the next 48 hours...or if Euro backs off.
Stay tuned.
Cold not done yet?
This is turning into a real winter in Minnesota. Rumors of winter's demise over the past few weeks have not panned out.
December was balmy with temps +3.7 vs. average at MSP. January came in at a respectable...nearly average +1.3F.
So far in February we're running a full -13.1F in the metro.
This week's milder air is a welcome respite to many of us. It's nice to get out and enjoy the fresh snow cover without freezing your nose off.
There are signs that sub-zero cold may return with some force after February 15th. The AO & GFS point the way.
GFS Model output via Meteostar.com
We'll see, the GFS is notorious for overdoing cold air intrusions in week 2. But something about this pattern has the right look to it.
Last week's cold was the real thing, and brings back memories of the sustained cold from the late 70s.
Who knows? Maybe International Falls will actually regain some of its "cold weather testing capitol of the world" mojo this winter?
If you grew up in Minnesota, you may remember and love this commercial clip from the late 70s or early 80s.
Ahhh...those were the days!
PH
Life in a Snow Globe; Stellar dendrites; 2 more Clippers this week; 30s ahead
Posted at 7:38 AM on February 4, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Updraft Preview:
Now we know what it feels like to live in a "snow globe." The idyllic weekend snows have been some of the prettiest of winter. In this edition of Updraft we'll tally the weekend snowfall totals and take a look at why those "stellar dendrites" piled up so quickly. We also preview 2 more Clippers this week, and track milder temps as 30s move in.
1" to 2" Sunday snowfall totals in the metro
3.7" weekend snowfall total at MSP Airport
4" snow depth at MSP Airport
7.5" snow depth in Fridley in the north metro
24" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport (-10.9" vs. average)
Productive Weekend "Clipper Parade"
Our series of 3 Alberta Clippers this weekend did a nice job laying down a fresh coating of fluff. They cam in like clockwork...right on schedule each one dumping 1"-2"+ around the metro.
Sunday's system came in waves...and laid down 1" at MSP Airport, Fridley and St. Louis Park. The Chan NWS office picked up 1.4" and Credit River in Scott County in the southwest metro tallied 2.2" of fresh "Champagne Powder."
Image: Twin Cities NWS
The weekend totals of 3.7" at MSP was pretty common around the metro, as the 3 clippers spread out snowfall fairly evenly overall.
"Stellar Dendrites" pile up quickly"
You can thank "stellar dendrites" for our light fluffy goose down snowfall.
Temperatures aloft were just right for the big starry flakes to form this weekend.
Image: snowcrystals.com
Light winds assisted as the flakes reached the ground intact...undamaged from the collisions that occur during windy systems.
Like feathers falling from the sky, these biggest of snowflakes pile up quickly, as they gently stack on top of each other with long arms keeping plenty of space in between.
This is great snow for downhill and cross country skiers, and snowmobilers. I'm hearing it's the best of winter so far.
Coming up for air...then more snow tonight
We catch a break today from snowfall.
Like clockwork, the next "evening snow train" rolls in tonight as the Alberta Clipper #4 arrives.
Snow should begin in the metro around 9 to 10pm, and continue overnight.
Most of the metro appears to be in line for another 1" to 2" with tonight's system, with 2" to 4" north of the metro and up I-35 toward Hinckley.
Snow could continue into Tuesday AM rush hour....and roads could be a challenge, especially early.
The next in our series of 5 Clippers will roll in Wednesday. This one will be more of a "warm advection snow" as milder air pushes in from the south. The result will be the same...another shot of snow, probably in the 1" to 3" range.
That will put overall snowfall totals from 5 separate systems in the 4" to 8" range for most of the metro. Not bad for a week's work!
It's refreshing to see the picturesque renewal of our wintery landscape.
Tracking a warm up: 30s ahead
Milder air will push north into Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temps may actually rise overnight into Tuesday morning into the 20s...and 30+ looks likely by Wednesday evening.
Temps may hang in the lower 30s from Wednesday into Saturday...so the magnitude of the "thaw" looks tame. I don't think we'll hemorrhage a ton of snow cover this week...but you'll feel the warm up and get to enjoy some of the best outdoor conditions of winter with our fresh wintery landscape.
Enjoy!
PH
Worst of Winter's cold behind us; Clipper parade; Tracking a thaw next week
Posted at 5:40 PM on February 1, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Updraft Preview:
In this edition of Updraft we postulate that the worst of winter cold is now likely behind us. Is -13F all this winter's got for MSP? We're tracking a Clipper Parade that brings us several bouts of light snow through Monday. And, there's hope for a thaw next week.
Winter's coldest? -13F at MSP Airport Friday morning was probably the coldest we'll see this winter
Clipper Parade: 2" to 5" snowfall totals possible by Tuesday with a series of 4 separate Alberta Clippers
Tracking the thaw: 30s possible next week
-13F: Winter's coldest at MSP?
Congratulations.
You've probably just endured the coldest morning of the winter season in the Twin Cities.
-13F may not be like to "glory days" of the Arctic '70s in Minnesota, but it will get your attention...and test any weakness in your car's battery.
It's all uphill from here...as temps gradually recover into the teens this weekend.
I-94 Clipper Parade: "Champagne Powder" on the way
The jet stream is the river of air that steers storms, and it's finally setting up right over Minnesota.
Our "northwest flow" means a series of Clippers is on the way. I count 4 separate system that will race down I-94 and sail overhead through Monday night.
Here's the best "guesstiame" on timing & totals.
#1 Friday night: Quick hitter with a coating to up to 1"+ in some areas. Metro snow tapers by 9-10 pm.
#2) Saturday PM & Saturday night: Slightly stronger and may procuse a coating to as much as 1" to 2" depending on location.
Sunday night: 1" to 3"?
Monday PM & night: Strongest of the 4 systems. Has the potential to produce 1" to 3"+ in some areas.
In total, the 4 systems are capable of delivering snowfall totals of between 2" and 5"+ in a swath centered along the I-94 corridor from Fargo to The Twin Cities and beyond.
These will be relatively dry snows..."high quality snow flakes" with snow to water ratios in the 15:1 range or higher. Cross country skiers and snowmobilers may appreciate the new "Champagne Powder" that will fall from the cold air mass.
Enjoy the fresh looking winter landscape this weekend!
Tracking the thaw: 30s next week?
Milder Pacific breeze may blow in Minnesota next week.
Okay...maybe not that mild.
At this point 30s look likely for the metro and southern Minnesota by mid-week. The Euro has some "red numbers" for next week.
The GFS cranked out 40F for the metro next Friday. I don't know if we'll get quite that warm...but I won't be shocked to see 40F (above zero) somewhere in southern Minnesota next week.
Stay tuned!
PH
Coldest night of winter tonight? Blame the "Arctic Oscillation." Snowier pattern next week?
Posted at 8:04 AM on January 31, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-12F coldest temp at MSP Airport so far this winter on January 22nd
-10F to -16F likely low at MSP early Friday morning
Wind Chill Advisories include the metro until noon Friday
Wind Chill Warnings for western Minnesota and the Dakotas
Midler days ahead 30s possible by next week
Wetter days ahead? pattern change may increase snow chances last next week
Arctic Interlude:
Our narrative in Minnesota is that the cold is just no big deal.
We sleep in heated homes. Drive our (hopefully) heated cars to a heated workplace. Back home again to a cozy fireplace. Repeat.
Talk to an Arizonan about winter cold. When they shudder, remind them that they do the same thing in reverse from May to October when it's 100F+. AC home, AC car, AC office. Where's the pool?
It's all about climate control.
Our latest swipe from the Canadian Arctic is here. We can toss terms like "NWS revised wind chill" around until Friday.
The good news? This may be the "last coldest" air mass of the winter.
March...yes March and "Meteorological Spring" is a mere 29 days away.
If I close my eyes and daydream, I can almost feel that 1st mild March spring day... sitting in the sunshine on my front stoop as the last of the snow drips away and strange colorful birds start showing up in the yard.
Almost.
Blame the "Arctic Oscillation:"
Say what? It sounds like a bad medical condition associated with cold & flu.
The "AO" is actually a good indicator of how cold it will get over parts of North America & Europe a week or two in advance. The Negative Phase AO brings cold incursions south into North America and Europe. The Positive AO tends to produce milder weather over Minnesota & much of the USA.
Here's a more detailed description from NOAA's "Arctic Theme Page."
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) appears to be the cause for much of the recent changes that have occurred in the Arctic. Its effects are not restricted just to the Arctic; it also represents an important source of variability for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. The AO has been described as "a seesaw pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude. The positive phase brings the opposite conditions, steering ocean storms farther north and bringing wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia and drier conditions to areas such as California, Spain and the Middle East."(University of Washington)
The AO was strongly negative during last week's arctic outbreak....but should flip back to positive next week. That should allow some moderation in our temps.
Latest trends are unclear for the direction of the AO after next week. If it stays positive...expect a continuation of milder than average temps. If not...winter may hang tough this February.
Stay tuned.
Coldest night of winter?
The incoming arctic air mass peaks Thursday night into Friday morning. As high pressure settles overhead with calm air early Friday morning, temps will plunge.
We've hit -12F so far at MSP for the coldest this winter last Tuesday morning. The models are cranking out --11F (Euro) to -16F (NAM) to -20F (GFS) Friday morning for MSP.
At this point I'm leaning toward the Euro number of -11F...but the range could be anywhere from -10F to -14F at MSP and the inner urban core Friday morning.
We may fall just shy...or possibly take the "award" for the coldest morning of the winter Friday in the metro.
Image: NOAA data via Iowa State University
We warm into the 20s this weekend, and 30s still appear likely by next Wednesday & Thursday.
It's all uphill from here! (Or is it downhill?)
Signs of snow ahead?
This is still far enough out to be in the "wishful thinking" phase...but I see signs that out persistent northwest flow (cold & dry) may be transitioning into a southwest flow (milder & wetter) by late next week. NOAA's CPC supports the idea of a midler pattern emerging.
Image: NOAA/CPC
The GFS is flipping back and forth as usual...but seems to revisit a pattern that drives 2 significant rain/ice/snow events into the Upper Midwest in the next 2 weeks.
The 1st one seems slated for next Friday & Saturday February 8th & 9th. This one ahs Euro support as well...which lends more credence to the idea of significant snow.
The second chance is a deep storm along about February 12-13th. This one could have a deep Gulf of Mexico moisture tap...and that scenario could inject enough moisture to produce potentially heavy wet snows for Minnesota.
Of course all of this still falls under cautionary modifiers like "possibly" and "potentially" but the trends are encouraging...and fit with CPC's idea of a wetter pattern as we emerge into late winter in the Upper Midwest.
Image: NOAA/CPC
Weather toes and fingers crossed.
PH
Another (snowy) near miss; Winter's report card so far; Why is some ice still unsafe?
Posted at 9:56 AM on January 30, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Near miss as snowstorm clips southeast Minnesota today
2/3 of meteorological winter in the books after tomorrow January 31st
Highly variable ice thickness still in late January on parts of Lake Minnetonka and other Minnesota lakes
48 hour Arctic Outbreak rolls into Minnesota through Friday
22.5 days of sub-zero minimum temps on average each winter at MSP
6 days of sub-zero lows in the metro so far this winter season
2 more days of sub-zero lows tomorrow & Friday morning
1-2 more days with sub-zero lows likely the rest of this winter?
Another "near miss" for the metro:
Snow is flying today in Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. It's another tantalizingly close call for southern Minnesota snow lovers...after a good dumping up north yesterday.
4" to 5" is already on the ground near Des Moines and Waterloo, and a swath of 6"+ snowfall will decorate a path from near Des Moines to central Wisconsin by tonight.
Tough driving? Yes. But that snowfall is liquid gold for winter sports, and the water content in the snow will help boost rivers & lakes in the coming weeks.
Winter's Report Card: Milder with near average precipitation so far
So far this winter season is going about as I expected when I walked out on the weather limb with my winter outlook in November.
Image: Tim Nelson - MPR News
Here's where we stand at MSP with 2/3 of "meteorological winter" (Dec-Feb) in the books after tomorrow.
Temps:
December +3.7F
January +1.9F (estimated finish after cold outbreak)
Overall +2.8F vs. average so far
Comments: December was relatively mild with just one day reaching the zero mark, on Christmas morning.
January has been much closer to "real winter" in Minnesota this year. At just +1.9F vs. average, temps ran relatively close to average this month. The 5-day sub-zero arctic outbreak from January 20-24th strung together 5 consecutive sub-zero lows at MSP Airport for the 1st time in 2 years... since Jan 19-23rd, 2011.
The likely total of 8 sub-zero days with temps at or below zero this month is close to the 30-year average of 9.5 days for the month of January.
My read at this point is we'll likely see 1-2 more nights of sub-zero lows in the Twin Cities in February. That would put us at around 10 for the winter season.
Snowfall:
Heavy snowfall at the Weather Lab on December 9th
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
20.4" so far
33.3" average season snowfall to date
-12.9" vs. average to date
+5.5" vs. last winter to date
Comments: The big story so far this winter was the 10.5" snowfall on December 9th.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
The heavy snow cover did a quick disappearing act with snow cover down to 1" by the 16th after temps reached the 40s on December 11th & 12th. Nearly half an inch of rain fell on the 15th, wiping out most of the residual snow cover.
Snowfall is running ahead of last winter's pace so far, but still below both the 30-year and longer term average.
Overall precipitation since December 1st: 2.50"
Average precipitation since December 1st: 2.01"
Surplus precipitation since December 1st: +.49"
It is somewhat surprising that overall precipitation is running above average so far this meteorological winter. That can be attributed to rainfall events, which have become 4 times more common in winter the past few decades.
Looking ahead: February to close "meteorological winter" on a mild note?
Trends for the next 2 weeks suggest milder than average weather for the Upper Midwest. That would likely bring February in warmer than average, and guarantee a milder than average winter overall.
Image: NOAA/CPC
There are some signals that favor increased precip...snow and rain in February. Let's hope so...we'll need every bit of moisture to help recharge river & lake levels this spring.
Right now drought is the big story going into the spring of 2013. We'll need much above average rainfall once the ground thaws out to replenish parched soils.
Ice still not safe everywhere:
This has been a crazy winter for ice safety. Ice thickness is highly variable this winter. There's 16" to 24" in some bays...with open water just a few hundred yards away.
We know ice is never "totally safe"...that there are always thin spots where water flows through channels etc. This winter has seen more open water than any I can remember with this much cold air around.
A dozen vehicles...and some iceboats have gone through the ice near the Weather Lab in Lake Minnetonka in the past two weeks.
The channels are still open water, and a huge pressure ridge west of the Minnetonka yacht Club in the "main" Lower Lake continues to produce open water in late January.
This car found it.
Image: M. Martin via Lake Minnetonka Patch
One theory is that there was so much extra heat content stored deep in the lake water this past summer...that it's been tough to get a good solid freeze this winter. Bouts of sustained cold have been tough to come by...punctuated by thaws.
No matter the causes, make sure you know where you're going and the local ice thickness if you venture out on your favorite frozen lake this winter.
PH
Arctic Relapse: Worst sub-zero cold behind us after this week? 40F next week?
Posted at 6:51 PM on January 29, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
10" to 11" snowfall totals "Up North" at Cass Lake, Big Fork & Dixon Lake Tuesday
6"+ snowfall totals with next system from eastern Iowa through Madison & Green Bay Wednesday
Severe Outbreak heavy storms prompt severe weather watches & warnings from near Chicago to St. Louis to Texas.
Arctic Redux: Bitter sub-zero arctic air returns to Minnesota Wednesday through Friday
Worst of winter cold over after this week? Growing signs this week's cold may be the last sustained sub-zero shot this winter
40F? Sustained thaw next week may produce +40F in southern Minnesota
Wetter pattern emerging? Signs point to a wetter pattern in the next few weeks
Brighter Days Ahead We're gaining 3 additional minutes of daylight each day now!
Welcome snow "up north"
Sunday's 3" metro snow burst was nice...but The Twin Cities can't seem to buy a break on getting a major snowstorm lately.
Northern Minnesota is the latest area to get a decent dumping. A band of 5"+ fell from near Fargo through north central Minnesota to International Falls early Tuesday.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 955 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES/ LOCATION / ST/ COUNTY
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA
10.50 1 WNW TOWN OF CASS LAKE MN CASS
10.00 BIGFORK MN ITASCA
8.50 5 S LITTLEFORK MN KOOCHICHING
8.30 3 S NORTHOME MN ITASCA
8.00 14 SE INTERNATIONAL FAL MN KOOCHICHING
MEASURED AT KETTLE FALLS
8.00 2 SSW KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS
7.60 7 S BIGFORK MN ITASCA
7.00 1 S WALKER MN CASS
6.50 TOGO MN ITASCA
6.50 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING
6.40 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING
3 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.
6.30 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS
STILL SNOWING.
6.10 3 W INDUS MN KOOCHICHING
6.00 1 NNW FEDERAL DAM MN CASS
5.80 1 N HACKENSACK MN CASS
5.50 12 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA
5.50 DEER RIVER MN ITASCA
4.30 HACKENSACK MN CASS
4.10 POKEGAMA DAM MN ITASCA
4.00 8 W REMER MN CASS
4.00 8 ENE COOK MN ST. LOUIS
1.40 2 NE GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA
1.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS
0.80 5 N BABBITT MN ST. LOUIS
0.50 CROSSLAKE MN CROW WING
0.50 7 NW BRAINERD MN CROW WING
0.50 LUTSEN MN COOK
Another "near miss" southeast:
The next system to detour around the Twin Cities is dumping a mixed bag of rain & snow to our southeast. Heavy rain and snowfall totals are soaking parts of several Midwestern states with this one. There's just enough cold air on the system's northwest side to produce a band of heavy wet snow from Iowa City to Dubuque, Madison & Green Bay.
NAM snowfall output via wxcaster.com
Drought busting rains?
It takes a flood to end a drought....so they say.
This system is producing widespread meaningful rains over many drought plagued areas in the Midwest.
How do you end a drought? One Flood Watch at a time. Rivers around Milwaukee and Chicago are rising rapidly this week.
Along the squall line, severe weather reports are coming in.
Next: Bitter cold returns
We'll all be feeling the effects of our next arctic front Wednesday.
This latest shot of arctic air may not be quite as bitter...or as sustained as last week's blast, but it will get you attention.
The cold air will peak Friday morning, with lows between -10F and -15F in the metro & suburbs...and -25F to -30F or colder up north.
Temperatures will struggle to get to zero Thursday in the metro...and will stay sub-zero up north.
The good news?
This cold looks more fleeting that last week's sustained cold wave...about 48 hours of "real" cold give or take.
Worst of winter's cold behind us after this week?
I'm always hesitant to make big, sweeping declarations about overall seasonal patterns weeks in advance. The fact is...the dirty little secret in meteorology...the models just don't have enough reliability beyond a week or two to say for sure which way weather trends will go with a "credible" degree of accuracy.
We try to fill in the longer term gaps with shifts in the "oscillations" such as the AO, NAO etc...but even those trends can't reliably allow us to make credible declarations weeks ahead of time...even if we try and make them sound certain.
That said...trends do seem to suggest that this week's arctic outbreak might be the worst we will see the rest of this winter.
I am more confident about saying that next week looks mild...perhaps even an extended thaw. A sustained milder southerly flow should boost temps above freezing several days next week.
It's quite possible that we'll see a 40F temp pop up at you local bank thermometer by about next Thursday...maybe in the metro.
The Euro model is cranking out +5C or 41F next Thursday for the Twin Cities.
The GFS spits out several days in the 30s next week...and suggest a return to somewhat colder air by the middle of February.
By then, daylight increases and the sun angle is much higher...and it's tougher to get sustained sub-zero cold in the metro.
Wetter too?
NOAA's CPC is hinting at a wetter pattern for the next 2 weeks for the Upper Midwest.
Overall atmospheric pattern seem to be evolving into more favorable environment for Midwest storms. One of these days, the Twin Cities area should hopefully get in on a big, sloppy late winter early spring type system.
Stay tuned.
PH
Icy start gives way to PM slop fest; Arctic relapse tomorrow; 30s return by Sunday?
Posted at 8:42 AM on January 29, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
MSP quick look forecast:
Icy start gives way to sloppy wet roads as temps gradually warm above freezing today
Icy: Anywhere from .10" to .20" of glaze ice reported this morning from metro to Eau Claire & St. Cloud on untreated roadways, sidewalks & parking lots
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
159 AM CST TUE JAN 29 20130151 AM FREEZING RAIN ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
01/29/2013 E0.20 INCH STEARNS MN BROADCAST MEDIAEXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE GLAZED
WITH ICE. NUMEROUS VEHICLES IN THE DITCH.
Dense Fog eases gradually today
32F temps hovering a degree or two either side of freezing this morning, warming above freezing today
Freezing from below? Ground temps still sub-freezing from recent cold....melt & drizzle can freeze on contact with sub-freezing pavement
Windshield Washer Fluid Alert: You'll need it later today
Icy underfoot: Expect icy spots on anything untreated today where temps are at or below freezing...that includes your driveway & walkways. Remember, many injuries from ice come from falls...something we often forget in Minnesota.
Well treated roads may (hopefully) be just wet.
Tale of 2 storm systems:
Minnesota & the Twin Cities are literally surrounded by storms today.
Storm #1 dumped heavy snow up north and brought glaze ice to the metro.
Image: Duluth NWS
Storm #2 rocked Madison, Milwaukee & Chicago with heavy rain, thunder & lightning overnight.
Rare January heavy T-Storms in Chicago dumped 1" hail and 1.13" rain fell in 30 minutes Monday night.
Check out the Chicago radar loop. The black boxes are cloud to ground lightning strikes that peppered the Chicago area, Madison & Milwaukee overnight.
Tornado watches are out for Oklahoma & Missouri today.
Image: Iowa Emergency Management
Severe Outbreak: SPC has pasted a modearte risk for severe storms out for much of Arkansas today...with a slight risk all the way north to Illinois.
Image: NOAA/SPC
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...OVER PARTS OF THE OZARK REGION AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
Springtime in January?
It feels like spring today in much of the Midwest with temps in teh 60s and even 70s. Chicago will set records today with highs in the 60s.
Kansas set all time record highs for Janaury Monday with mid 70s. Topeka, Kansas shattered the old record of 67F by a full 10 degrees with a high of 77F Monday!
RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1241 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET FOR MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH...AND FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT TOPEKA KS...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT BILLARD AIRPORT IN TOPEKA KS MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH AT 331 PM. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE BOTH FOR THIS DAY AND FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH WAS 67 DEGREES...SET IN 1917. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WAS 74 DEGREES...FIRST SET ON JANUARY 2...1939 AND THEN TIED ON JANUARY 8...2003.
Minnesota's Arctic relapse tomorrow:
Closer to home...we warm up above freezing later today...so any icy conditions should "improve" into a repeat of the sloppy mess we saw Monday. The metro will be on the edge of some light snow tonight as the next wave dumps snow in southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin.
Bitter winds return Wednesday as the next arctic front drops south. Temps will bottom out Thursday morning near -10F in the inner metro...to -15F in the suburbs. Northern Minnesota will again shiver through -25F to -35F...even -40F is possible again in a few spots.
Last of the sub-zero cold?
It's probably too early to write off sub-zero cold just yet, but I think there's a good chance Thursday will be our last shot at a sub-zero high temp in the metro this winter.
The longer range trends are encouraging. A milder...and wetter weather pattern looks to take hold by Sunday...and may last for the next few weeks.
There are signs we may move into a wetter...potentially snowier pattern in the next two weeks. Don't bet the farm...but the GFS is hinting at a trend of snow around the weekend of February 9th & 10th.
It's still too early to say if this has any weather "street cred"...but the trends are encouraging.
Now, where's my extra jug of windshield washer fluid?
PH
A misty ice fog this morning; heavy snow possible tonight northern Minnesota
Posted at 6:34 AM on January 28, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Freezing rain, Record, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
The rain gauge at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport accumulated nearly a half-inch (0.49) of precipitation on Sunday. This is a record for Jan. 27, beating the old record of 0.42 inch set in 1916. The observer measured 3 inches of snow on Sunday at the airport.
Check out some snowfall reports by clicking here.
A dense, icy fog blanketed a large part of Minnesota with temperatures below the thawing point of 32 degrees this morning. Visibility was as low as a quarter-mile from Duluth through the Twin Cities to Albert Lea. Travel with caution. Visibility is expected to improve later this morning.
A sharp contrast in temperatures is seen on the map above, with highs as mild as the 60s in Illinois. Last night, around 10 p.m., a thunderstorm was reported to the west of Chicago at the Dupage County Airport.
A mixture of freezing rain/sleet and snow is expected to form in western Minnesota later today. This wintry mix should change to all snow tonight.
RUC model water content precipitation ending at 9 p.m. CST. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
NOAA's NCEP forecast for probability of snowfall exceeding 4 inches or more today and tonight.
Liquid precipitation forecast for next 24 hours from NCEP/HPC. Some of this precipitation may fall as sleet or freezing rain.
Travel will be very hazardous through the night in northern portions of Minnesota, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the potential for 4 to 8 inches of snow.
In the Twin Cities lighter amounts of snow are on tap for later tonight and Tuesday.
The upper Midwest is in the path of a blast of Arctic air on Wednesday.
Surface temperatures, wind in knots and pressure field valid at 9 a.m. CST Wednesday. Source:NOAA NAM/College of Dupage
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
NAM forecast at approximately 5 thousand feet on Thursday at noon displaying the impressive onslaught of perhaps the coldest air mass of the season. Temperatures and wind field paint the icy cold quite nicely. In this case, bright red is extreme cold.
Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday.
Craig Edwards
Icy mixture dominated by snow over the Twin Cities this afternoon
Posted at 2:16 PM on January 27, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Shortly after 2 p.m. CST large snowflakes were accumulating across the Twin Cities metro area. Radar indicated this band of snow will advance slowly from southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Snow could accumulate 2 to 3 inches by dark.
Radar screen capture at 205 p.m. CST. Source:NOAA/Weather underground
Snow was mixed with freezing rain and sleet to the south of the Twin Cities. Precipitation is likely to reach up to St. Cloud and Hayward, Wis., by 3 p.m. CST.
The National Weather Service has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include counties north of the metro and into parts of northwest Wisconsin for this afternoon and evening.
National Weather Service expanded Winter Weather Advisory in blue with a Winter Storm Warning continuing through this evening in the pink shaded area.
Snow, sleet and freezing rain will make travel extremely hazardous. Travel with caution. The precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and evening.
(1 Comments)Frigid air will ease with wintry mix in southeast Minnesota Sunday
Posted at 4:12 PM on January 25, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Perhaps there is a little rush of excitement about the moderation in temperatures for the weekend. Indeed, the arctic air pushes east on Saturday night.
A cold start is expected for you Saturday morning.
As winds diminish tonight and skies clear, look for temperatures to drop sharply over the snow-covered landscape of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be well below zero across central and northern Minnesota.
The National Weather Service in Duluth has been tracking the cold spell and posted this table of temperatures and wind chill readings. You can view the summary by clicking here.
Several inches of snow accumulated in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight and this morning. More than 6 inches accumulated near Grand Marais, with 4.4 inches at International Falls.
The Duluth Airport measured just shy of 3 inches from overnight to midday.
Chicago finally recorded its first 1-inch snowfall of the winter season this morning with 1.1 inches measured at O'Hare Aiport, the official reporting spot for the Windy City. This puts an end to the streak of the longest period without a 1-inch snowfall in Chicago.
From the National Weather Service in Chicago, issued at 9:49 a.m. CST today:
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
RANK # OF DAYS END OF STREAK
------------------------------------
1. 335 JAN 25 2013
2. 319 JAN 6 1940
3. 315 DEC 7 1958
4. 307 DEC 30 1931
5. 305 JAN 15 2002
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR CHICAGO THROUGH 930 AM THIS MORNING NOW STANDS AT 2.8 INCHES.
The Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport has measured only 17.4 inches for the season, which is more than 14 inches below normal.
One of the wonders of nature is the occurrence of sun pillars often observed near sunrise or sunset on very cold mornings. This image was captured in South Dakota by Nick Heitkamp earlier this week.
Image:Nick Heitkamp
The light pillar looks like a thin column that extends vertically above and/or below the source of light. The light pillar is prominently visible when the sun is low on the horizon. It normally forms an arc that extends from 5 to 10 degrees beyond the solar disc. Light pillars are formed by reflection from ice crystals.
Other men's grass is always, well ... snow free before mine. Check out the difference in the remaining snow cover in my neck of the woods.
Neighbor's house with a south facing lawn.
My yard, across from the neighbors, facing north.
The low angle of the sun targets the rays to south facing slopes and accelerates the melting as well as the sublimation of snow cover.
Not much warmth was provided by the January sun today, and the brisk winds dropped the wind chill readings well below zero in portions of MInnesota. I heard a couple of comments today that the cold is more tolerable when there is plenty of sunshine. You agree?
A wintry mix is expected to develop over southeast Minnesota late Saturday and into Sunday. The Twin Cities metro area once again appears to be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Temperatures will climb to around 32 on Sunday afternoon..
The GFS model from noon paints the precipitation up to the metro area on Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.
GFS forecast precipitation for six hour period ending at 6 p.m. Sunday. This is water equivalent of snow/sleet/freezing rain and rain. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Another shot of very cold air ushered in by accumulating snow will arrive in the Great Lakes region on Tuesday night. Temperatures will tumble and wind chills will be dangerously frigid.
Overnight lows forecast by NWS valid on Thursday morning
Crashed Ice: -42F in Embarrass; Warmer days and snow ahead?
Posted at 9:20 AM on January 24, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-42F in Embarrass this morning (coldest temp so far this winter in Minnesota)
-40F in Babbitt
-36F in International Falls, Cook & Crane Lake
5 sub-zero mornings so far in the Twin Cities this winter
3 sub-zero days last winter
22.5 number of sub-zero days in an "average" winter in the metro
+1.8F temps vs. average so far for January 2013 at MSP Airport
Hope warmer days coming soon!
30s in the metro by Monday?
Snow tonight Alberta Clipper system brings snow to Minnesota tonight
Weird Winter of 2013
Things got a little weird in the Weather Lab overnight.
First a bang and a clatter. Too late in the winter for Santa right?
Then...no water pressure.
Ooops.
As we wait for help...and news of what happened...and how much it will cost us, all sorts of wintery nightmares ran through my mostly sleepless head last night.
Did a pipe freeze and burst? No water in the basement...whew. Maybe outside? Images of an instant ice rink on my front walkway and a geyser creating twisted icy sculptures ran through my head. Will they have to dig up my front lawn just in time for our guests from Chicago this weekend? Will they have a hot shower??? Will I have a hot shower after our hockey games in the North American Pond Hockey Championships this weekend?
It's all still a mystery at this point.
Stay tuned.
One thing I know for sure, the lack of significant, insulating snow cover in the metro and southern Minnesota combined with our barbaric cold this week is driving frost depths down deep into the soil.
Check out the plummeting soil temps at Waseca this week, where soil temps have fallen to 29F nearly 2 feet down. At least the frost depth has not yet reached 40".
Image: MN Climate Working Group
-42F in Embarrass: Coldest in Minnesota so far this winter
The concept of pipe rupturing cold is very real up north, where Embarrass recorded a low of -42F this morning. -40 in Babbitt this morning is no slouch either.
The -42F at Embarrass is the coldest reading in the State of Minnesota so far this winter.
Let's hope it stays that way.
Talk about keeping out the riff raff, as my father used to say back in the 1970s.
5 & Counting:
Today marks day #5 of sub zero low temps in the metro this winter.
Last winter we only managed to eke out 3 days. The 30 year average is 22.5 days for MSP.
Looking ahead, I see one more sub-zero start possible Saturday morning...then a few more later next week. My guess is we may end up somewhere around 10 for the entire winter.
Looking at the overall trends, one measure of our warming climate is to count the dwindling number of sub-zero low in the metro. We averaged closer to 35 sub-zero days in the 1970s.
In the past 4 decades there is a distinct trend toward fewer sub-zero days in the metro. Now it's 22.5...and dropping fast.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
At the current trend line, we may be averaging around 10 days by 2030...and closer to 0 by 2040.
I don't know if we'll ever achieve all sub-zero free winters in the metro...but winters with few sub-zero readings will be much more common for our kids than the 30+ days below zero we grew up with.
A "real" winter this year:
Compared to last year, this is a pretty real winter in Minnesota. Here's where we stand so far with temps in the metro and most of Minnesota this winter.
December +3.7F
January +1.8F so far (and rapidly approaching average)
An "average" January in Minnesota? What a concept.
Looking ahead, February looks to open on a cold note then modify to a milder weather pattern as the month unfolds.
There are some signs we may see a thaw starting around February 7th.
Stay tuned.
Image: snowcrystals.com
Searching for Snow:
An Alberta Clipper system will dive south into Minnesota tonight.
Snow develops in the Red River Valley today...and spreads south & east through tonight.
A fresh coating of 1" to 3" seems likely for most of northern Minnesota. The "Hill" above Lake Superior may see some "lake enhanced" snow totals as winds blow off the lake ahead of the system. 3" to 6" is possible in some areas by Friday morning.
Image: NAM snowfall output via wxcaster.com
The metro will likely see a few hours of light snow overight...starting later this evening. It looks like we'll have to settle for less than an inch...but that may be enough to gum up some roads just in time for early AM rush hour Friday.
Ugh.
A second system brings a chance of light snow Sunday.
"Plowable" storm Tuesday?
The Euro model remains bullish on a more significant, potentially "plowable" system for next Tuesday.
The GFS is still waffling on track and temp profile...bringing a mixed bag of sleet and potentially freezing rain to the metro...with heavier snowfall north.
It's still too early 5 days out to say which is right...but I'm leaning toward the Euro solution as of now.
Then again maybe I'm just getting tired of looking out my weather lab window at the pathetic looking toothpaste masquerading as snow cover on my lawn.
Again...stay tuned.
Thawing out this weekend?
Here's the really good news in the forecast. We will get a much deserved break from persistent cold by Sunday.
Temps should rise to near +30F (as in 30 above) by late Sunday...and 30s Monday & Tuesday.
Image: Iowa State
Excuse me while I sit on my front stop and bask in 30 degree warmth.
Will I have (hot) water by then?
PH
Milder today; Arctic relapse tonight; Snow chances lurking?
Posted at 9:01 AM on January 23, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Light snowy coating enough to gum up roads once again in metro today
+10 to +20 degrees "less cold" over Minnesota this morning vs. Tuesday
Arctic relapse as reinforcing arctic surge hits tonight
-10F to -15F again tomorrow morning in central & southern MN
-30F up north
4 sub-zero mornings so far this winter in the metro
22.5 average number of sub-zero mornings in the metro (latest 30-year average)
Moderation overall temps trend is positive next few days
+30F possible by Sunday & Monday
Snow chances lurking Thursday night, Sunday & Tuesday?
Another "Krylon" rush hour this morning:
Welcome to the weird winter of 2012-'13.
This winter you can expect the unexpected. Little snow overall...but what snow does fall...even .1" will create havoc on metro roads.
Image: MNDOT
Another Krylon... spray painted coating of snow greets metro commuters today, and the roads are coated with the greasy skid stuff once again.
I can't remember another winter when so little snow...has caused so much havoc on area roadways. Check out the number of "incidents" on Twin Cities roads this morning from MNDOT.
Take it easy out there today.
Moderation today, Arctic relapse tonight:
Minnesota continues to ride the boundary between bitter arctic air and somehwat milder air.
Temps across Minnesota this morning were anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees "less cold" than Tuesday...but it won't last long.
Another arctic cold front is dropping south today, and you'll feel the sting as temps and wind chills drop again by tonight.
The metro will plunge to between -10F and -15F by Thursday morning. Northern Minnesota is in for another night of -30F in most locations.
This arctic sideswipe will be brief, as temps recover above zero again Thursday...then slowly rise Friday into the teens.
One more sub-zero speed bump Saturday morning...then the arctic air is done for at least few days.
+30F? How great will that feel?
The good weather news for Many Minnesotans is that a long awaited, well deserved respite from sub zero mornings is on the way by the weekend.
Temps rebound Saturday afternoon and may approach +20F in the metro.
By Sunday & Monday, a southerly wind flow should boost temps to near +30F.
A 3-day respite from sub-zero cold? Not much...but we'll take it I think.
Reality Check: Winter cold not done yet:
I wish I could say that's it for sub-zero cold this winter, and that a big extended thaw is on the way and spring is right around the corner after that.
It appears arctic air will again surge south starting next Tuesday & Wednesday. Another round of sub-zero temps is in the cards....just a question of how cold and for how long.
The winter of 2012-'13 appears to be mocking those who had hoped for an "easy" or "abbreviated" winter.
On our radar: Snow chances lurking?
We're still looking at 3 possible opportunities for snow the next few days.
Thursday night: A weak clipper system brings a shot of light snow, especially to the northern half of Minnesota.
Sunday: Models are hinting at another light snow chance Sunday as warmer air pushes in.
Tuesday? The GFS has been all over the map on this one (what's new?) but the ECMWF (Euro) has been pretty consistent about brining what could be at least a couple of inches into the metro and much of Minnesota next Tuesday.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
Still too early to get a handle on this one...but at least there's hope for snow lovers.
Stay tuned!
PH
(1 Comments)Sub Zero streak ends; Cold gradually eases; +30F in sight; Snow chances ahead
Posted at 5:38 PM on January 22, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
+1F at MSP Airport at 3pm Tuesday
39 straight hours of sub-zero temps in the Twin Cities
186 hours all time Twin Cities consecutive sub-zero record set in 1912
Cold eases (gradually) next few days in Minnesota
+30F in sight by Sunday or Monday
Light snow chances return with the "milder" air Thursday, Sunday & Tuesday?
20 days until pitchers & catchers report to Twins Spring Training in Fort Myers, Florida
It's all connected? Did tropical rainfall pattern trigger arctic outbreak?
The worst is over
After bottoming out at -38 in Babbitt, -36F in Embarrass and -12F in the Twin Cities this morning, I think we can say the worst of this cold snap is probably over.
We'll hover a few degrees either side of zero for the next few days, but a significant warm up is in sight starting Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday & Monday, 30 above zero will feel like spring.
Light snow chances ahead?
As milder air bumps into the cold dome over the Upper Midwest, a few weak clippers will ride over Minnesota and bring chances for light snow.
Thursday, Sunday and next Tuesday look like the best shots. We may only squeeze out an inch or two for the metro....but northern Minnesota may pick up some 3"+ totals.
Image: NOAA via Iowa State University
The GFS is hinting at a potentially more productive system Sunday. We'll see.....
Close Call Tuesday?
This winter's storm track has favored systems tracking southeast of Minnesota.
It looks like another near miss will plow through parts of Wisconsin & Iowa...and may clip southeast Minnesota next Tuesday. The system could dump some significant snow along its path.
It's too early to tell if the track is solid...but the history of most storm this winter is to favor the southern storm track.
Stay tuned...things could still change.
Still another cold shot around Feb 1st?
The Arctic Oscillation goes "negative" we know to expect cold air in Minnesota. That's what happened this past week during our arctic outbreak.
After next week's warm up...there are signs the AO could go negative again. That could lead to another arctic smack late next week.
Image: NOAA/CPC
Did Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) play a role in our Arctic Outbreak?
We're always trying to connect the dots with so called "teleconnections" as multiple, identifiable weather patterns like ENSO, the AO & PDO spin around the globe like plates in the air.
These "oscillations" all play out in different regions of the globe...on different time scales.
Andrew Freedman from Climate Central reports on an interesting take on the MJO, and the theory it may affect even arctic circulation patterns.
In addition to the sudden stratospheric warming event, there may be another natural climate phenomenon at work as well. According to Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, also favors colder-than-average conditions in parts of the U.S. right now, and may even be a bigger factor than the more dramatic stratospheric warming event.L'Heureux has been studying ways to use the status of the MJO to predict large-scale weather patterns beyond a two-week lead time, when forecasts using current techniques tend to diminish.
The MJO is associated with a pattern of tropical rainfall that moves eastward along the equator, going around the world in about 30-to-60 days. Because the MJO influences atmospheric heating through tropical rainfall, it can modify weather patterns far away from the equator.
In a study published in the journal Climate Dynamics in 2012, L'Heureux and her colleagues found that when the MJO is located in a particular phase, as it is now, it can favor more cold air outbreaks over the eastern U.S.
Image showing an area of heavy tropical rains associated with the MJO in the Western Pacific Ocean. (Scientists use outgoing long wave radiation as a proxy for locating areas of persistent, heavy precipitation.)
Credit: NOAA/CPC via Michelle L'Heteureux.
Image: NOAA via Climate Central
PH
Sub-zero start; Cold gradually eases this week; +30F this weekend?
Posted at 7:04 AM on January 22, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-43F at Geraldton, Ontario this morning north of Lake Superior
-43F to -44F in the core or the Arctic air mass this morning
Image: Environment Canada
-36F in Embarrass, MN this morning!
-35F in Cook this morning
-33F at Ely & Crane Lake
-12F at MSP this morning
-12F in Crystal
-26F metro wind chills bundle the kids for back to school today
Cold eases gradually this week, teens (above zero) return
+30F in the metro by Sunday?
Light snow chances possible Thursday, Sunday & Tuesday
+30F in Anchorage, Alaska this morning
80F in sunny Tucson, Arizona Monday and again today
21 days until pitchers & catchers report for MN Twins Spring training in Fort Myers
Sub-Zero Start: Worst of the cold is (almost) over
There's no easy way to sugar coat what is probably the coldest morning of the year in much of Minnesota.
It's brutally cold out there. Tree crackin' cold.
-36 in Embarrass, -35F at Cook and -33F at Ely & Crane Lake this morning in northern Minnesota? That's respectable even for Minnesotans. To the rest of the nation it's an "emergency condition"... downright insane.
One saving grace....we would have been about 10 degrees colder with a good, deep snow cover in the metro and southern Minnesota this morning.
Bundle the kids up good on the way back to school today. Even with lighter winds the chills are still approaching dangerous.
The mercury will stagger to near zero this afternoon in the metro and southern Minnesota, but remain (well) below zero "up north."
This should be the coldest morning this week, and maybe the rest of the year.
In a month, spring will literally be right around the corner.
Hang in there!
Gradually Improving: Polar Vortex slides east
As the big brawling Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay slides east later this week, milder air will gradually filter into Minnesota.
It will be a halting process...a little recovery Thursday, then a brief reinforcing shot Friday into Saturday morning.
Southerly winds will finally take hold Saturday afternoon and last into Monday.
We should warm to near 30 Saturday in the south...and into the low 30s Sunday and possibly Monday.
Yay!
Lewis Black on Minnesota: A little levity to ease the cold?
One of my favorite comedians, Lewis Black may have said it best about living in Minnesota on days like this. If you don't mind a little profanity, (okay a LOT) then check this out. It's rare insight on our extreme climate, and may give you a smile on what could be the coldest morning of winter.
Searching for snow:
17.2" snowfall so far this winter at MSP Airport
12.5" last winter to date
30.2" average season snowfall to date
-13" vs. average so far this winter (but +4.8" vs. last winter)
I've talked with many of you who want some more snow. I hear you.
I have mixed feelings about our lack of snowfall this winter.
On one hand, it's a relief to know I don't have nasty ice dams building up on my roof that can send water into the house anytime soon.
The recent cold and snowless weather is great for outdoor ice...and my hockey buddies are happy we can skate outside this time of year on some quality ice. The organizers of local pond hockey tournaments are happy about that too. Great ice ...and little or no snow removal.
I don't mind missing a few bills from Howie the plow guy either.
On the other hand I'd love to enjoy the beauty of a fresh, snow covered winter landscape. I'd like to break out the cross country skis.
We have chances for light snow Thursday, Sunday and next Monday or Tuesday. Overall we may squeeze out an inch or two in the metro...and a bit more up north.
GFS 5-Day snowfall
If you're looking for snow, check out conditions up north. International Falls has 14" on the ground today. Duluth has 6", with increasing snow cover as you head up the hill above Lake Superior toward Grand Marais & Ely.
The "lake-effect" snow belts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan's U.P. have done pretty well in the past week also.
Looking Ahead: Winter hangs tough
What snow we have should hang around for the foreseeable future.
A wintery chill returns next week...and could last into the first days of February.
Predictions of the demise of winter n Minnesota are greatly exaggerated this year.
Hang in there, grab a cup of hot cocoa and a good book or movie and enjoy.
PH
Cold wave peaks Tue AM: -15F to -20F metro & suburbs ; 30s return Sunday?
Posted at 5:39 PM on January 21, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-2F official 24 hour "high" temp at MSP Airport Monday (12:20am)
-4F warmest "daytime" reading Monday afternoon
-53F coldest observed wind chill Monday at Grand Marais
-29F coldest air temp observed at Babbitt Monday AM
-34F record low temp for MSP Tuesday AM (set in 1936)
-15F likely in inner metro core Tuesday AM
-20F likely in metro suburbs Tuesday AM
-25F to -35F likely in northern Minnesota again Tuesday AM
Near 0F high temps will struggle to reach 0F Tuesday in the metro
5 days in a row of sub-zero lows in the metro? (Sunday-Thursday AM)
Light snow chance Thursday night into early Friday?
Moderation this weekend with highs in the 20s to low 30s by Sunday
Winter storm chance next Tuesday? Current track favors Iowa & Wisconsin SE MN... & possibly metro
2nd arctic cold wave rolls in around February 1st?
Bank thermometer finds the (-) sign in Minnetonka Monday.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
"This weather bites." - Heard on the street in Minnetonka today.
All In: Coldest daytime high at MSP in 4 years
It's official.
Monday's high temperature of -2F occurred just after midnight at 12:20am. After bottoming out at -10F Monday morning....temps staggered to -4F Monday afternoon at MSP Airport.
That's the 1st time in 4 years the mercury has failed to reach the 0F mark in the metro...since January 15th, 2009 when the best we could do was -6F at MSP.
Colder "Up North"
Fun with negative numbers? Check out the numbers from the Duluth NWS.
Bottoming Out:
The peak of our current cold wave bottoms out Tuesday morning.
I expect temps to tumble to near -15F at MSP Airport...and in the inner metro core. Your local bank and car thermometer will bottom out around -20F in the outer metro suburbs early Tuesday.
Wind chill advisories have been extended until 9am Tuesday for the metro. The combination of extreme cold...and light winds will be enough to push chills into the -20F to -35F range once again. Wind chill warnings for chills between -30F to -45F continue for northern Minnesota.
Slow Recovery:
Arcitc air is like defensive lineman in football...tough to move out of the way.
The heavy, dense arctic air is reluctant to leave. That's why we'll take a few days to recover this week. Don't look for any imminent thaws...and sub-zero mornings will continue into Thursday.
I know, I know...but it is what it is. I'm just the messenger.
Stupid Cold Weather Tricks:
This has been done a million times on local TV, but it's still pretty cool.
FROM BOILING TO FREEZINGA cup of boiling hot water thrown into very cold air will almost instantly freeze in midair and create a shower of tiny ice crystals. There are several reasons behind this phenomenon. First, the near-boiling water is already close to becoming steam when it is thrown into the air, which means that the water molecules are much closer to evaporating into the vapor state than they would be if the water were cold.
Second, the act of throwing the water into the air causes it to break up into tiny droplets. The water that was contained in the cup (which originally had a relatively small surface exposed to the air) now experiences a tremendous increase in the total surface area exposed to the air. This situation helps to speed up the evaporation process (evaporation is the process of turning from a liquid to a vapor).
Finally, very cold air typically has a low humidity level (that is, a low amount of water vapor present). This is yet another factor aiding the transition from liquid water, to water vapor, to ice crystals. At sufficiently low temperatures, this process seems to occur almost instantaneously.
Do I need to say be careful with hot (near boiling) water? I didn't think so.
By the way...in my opinion a better, safer and cooler trick is blowing "ice bubbles." I did this live on the CBS Morning News in one of our 1990's cold waves at -20F, and when I was at WGN in Chicago.
Just take a bottle of kiddies bubbles and bring it out on a calm sub-zero morning. Blow the bubbles, and watch them drift...freeze...then shatter.
I'm not sure this is the best example...but it may be the funniest. These two should have their own cable access show.
Pretty cool stuff. But than again I'm a weather geek that's easily pleased.
Brief Sunday "thaw" ?
Sunday looks like the warmest day in sight. The Euro model is cranking out a couple of hours at or above 32F. Man, 30+ will feel good after this week right?
Snow Chances Ahead?
As the milder air begins to filter in Thursday, we could see a little "warm advection" snow Thursday night into early Friday.
The GFS has been persistent about a bigger storm next week...but flipping back and forth between a southeast track that would miss the metro...and a storm track a little closer to home that could clip the metro and southeast Minnesota with "plowable" snow next Tuesday.
I'm not sold on either track yet, but it's nice to see something in the cards. I do think it looks pretty good for snow somewhere in the Upper Midwest next Tuesday.
The big question is...where?
Stay tuned!
Not done yet? Cold wave #2 possible around February 1st
Predictions of a wimpy winter this year may have been premature.
The GFS is notorious for overdoing cold air outbreaks 2 weeks out....so take this with a grain (shaker) of salt.
There are indications a second cold wave could ride down from the Arctic Circle around February 1st.
Let's see if (hope?) this cold wave backs off in model runs the next few days.
PH
(1 Comments)Minn-Arctica: Coldest day in 4 years; Cold peaks Tuesday AM; +33F by Sunday?
Posted at 8:36 AM on January 21, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-10F at MSP this morning
Feb 10, 2011 nearly 2 years since we were this cold at MSP (-11F)
1st subzero daytime high in 4 years at MSP Airport
-26F at Crane Lake this morning
-47F wind chill at Grand Marais Airport at 7 am this morning
5 to 10 degrees colder Tuesday AM as cold wave peaks
Cold hangs tough with sub-zero lows into Thursday
Moderation by Friday as cold eases
33F by Sunday as temps moderate?
40s for Inauguration in Washington D.C today
Minn-Arctica: Coldest day of winter today?
We knew it was coming sooner or later. It's finally here. What may be the coldest day of the 2012-'13 winter has arrived. Temps will struggle to reach 0F in southern Minnesota this MLK Day. Northern Minnesota will likely not see zero until Thursday or Friday in some areas.
Tangled Up In Blue:
There's plenty of blue (and purple) on the weather maps today as arctic air oozes south all the way to Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Image: University of Illinois
It's the wind, stupid:
Biting northwest winds are putting the chill in the air today. I saw -47F wind chill in Grand Marais this morning.
That's respectable, even in Minnesota....even with the revised wind chill chart from a few years ago.
It's been a long time since we've seen wind chill levels this low. You know the narrative. "It's Minnesota. We're tough. This is nothing compared to the 70s blah blah yada yada."
These are dangerous, even life threatening wind chill levels folks. Your exposed skin doesn't care how tough you think you are. Frostbite times can be as low as 5 to 10 minutes if you're caught outside unprotected today.
Be smart.
Cold Wave peaks Tuesday AM:
The coldest temps overall with this arctic blast will occur Tuesday morning. Expect tomorrow to be about 5F to 10F colder in most areas. That should mean some -30F reading up north. Twin Cities? I could see us "peak" around -15F to -18F at MSP Airport Tuesday morning before temps begin to moderate.
M....M....Moderation Ahead: Hang in there!
After peaking around -15F Tuesday morning in the metro, temps will slowly moderate this week. It's baby steps this week....sub-zero mornings punctuated by daytime highs staggering above zero. Next weekend will feel remarkably nice. 20s Saturday and lower 30s Sunday may feel like a heat wave.
From -31F wind chill this morning to +32 Sunday? It will feel about 63F warmer by Sunday. Something to look forward to.
"Sudden Stratospheric Warming" event may mean winter hangs tough for a few weeks:
I'm not sure what the Groundhog will say this year, but if he's been watching the arctic, he may forecast 6 more weeks of winter.
Our recent "sudden stratospheric warming" event over the North Pole may have been the trigger for our arctic outbreak, as polar air is displaced southward into Minnesota.
These events can last 4-8 weeks...and change weather patterns accordingly. We'll see moderating temps this weekend, but the longer view seems to favor respectable "winter" temperatures for the next few weeks.
The overnight GFS is hinting at another...potentially colder outbreak around February 1st. This is probably overdone, but I don't think we're done with sub-zero mornings just yet after this week.
Stay tuned, & stay warm!
PH
It's here; Arctic front gusts to 50 mph; Blizzard warnings; Hope for wet Spring 2013?
Posted at 2:14 PM on January 19, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
41F high temp at MSP Airport 3:23pm Friday
50F at Fairmont, Minnesota Friday PM
60s as close as Nebraska and Kansas on January 18th
+5F January temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport
Arctic Outbreak sweeping through Minnesota this weekend
Arctic front blows through Saturday with gusts over 45 mph
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1148 AM CST SAT JAN 19 20131130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MORRIS
01/19/2013 M51 MPH STEVENS MN AWOSSUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 43 MPH.
Band of snow showers with frontal passage Saturday evening
Blizzard Warnings up for Red River Valley
-20F temp plunge in 98 minutes in Fergus Falls Saturday morning
"Coldpocalypse" -10F to -17F likely in the metro Monday & Tuesday morning
-25F to -35F likely in northern Minnesota
42 hours of consecutive sub-zero temps likely in the Twin Cities
(Sunday evening to noon Tuesday)
Cold eases by next Wednesday, but wintery temps hold on next 2 weeks
35F as President Obama is sworn in Monday? Detailed Innauguration weather forecast from Capital Weather gang
Wet spring of 2013? New NOAA outlook favors wet spring for Upper Midwest
Onward into the Deep Freeze:
I love how Minnesotans react to news of imminent bitter cold in various ways.
This week I've heard everything from "Bring it on" or "It's about time" ...to "I love that our winter's are trending milder." "Keeps out the riff raff" my dad used to opine.
Yes we seem to love...or at least respect a good arctic outbreak in these parts.
Saturday starts fairly mild... then a window rattling arctic front barrels through Minnesota from north to south. The bitter air advances through northern Minnesota Saturday morning and midday, and temps will crash in the metro by late afternoon and evening. By late Saturday night, there will be no doubt that you live in Minnesota, and it is (still) January.
40 & 42? Major temp crash & sub-zero run
Talk about a flash freeze, Saturday will feel like falling off the "temperature cliff" in Minnesota. Southern Minnesota may plunge 40 degrees in 18 hours...from near 35 to -5 close to the metro.
The latest read on the duration of sub-zero air is probably from Sunday evening around 6pm until about noon Tuesday. That's about a 42 hour stretch of consecutive sub-zero hours give or take. Not bad, even for Minnesota.
Northern Minnesota may drop below zero Saturday afternoon...and not see the zero mark again until Wednesday or Thursday.
Nice.
Cold Wave peaks Monday & Tuesday AM:
Monday & Tuesday should eb the coldest days of this cold wave, and possibly of the winter. The numbers on the map below may be a few degrees conservative...arctic air has a way of beating forecasts.
I hesitate to say this will be the coldest air of the entire winter...yet.
The longer view for the next 2-3 weeks still indicates plenty of cold, with another shot of arctic air possible around February 1st.
To my somewhat trained eye...it looks like winter is here to stay for a few weeks. I don't see any "mega-thaws" in sight just yet. This winter is still running above average, but the next 2-3 weeks will pull us closer to average for January and into early February.
Hate the cold? Blame it on "stratospheric warming"
It turns out that changes high in the stratosphere over the polar region are linked to our arctic outbreaks in Minnesota. Climate Central's Andrew Freedman has some details.
An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe.This phenomenon, known as a "sudden stratospheric warming event," started on Jan. 6, but is something that is just beginning to have an effect on weather patterns across North America and Europe.
While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow.
Animation showing the evolution of the stratospheric warming event. The contours show absolute heights and the shading are height anomalies in the middle stratosphere, or about 16 miles above the surface. The height anomalies are a good proxy for temperature anomalies in the stratosphere with red representing high heights or warm temperatures and blue low heights or cold temperatures. You can see at the beginning of the loop a cohesive polar vortex along the coast of Northern Eurasia and then this area of higher heights or warm temperatures rush poleward from Siberia into the polar vortex splitting it into two pieces, one over Eurasia and one over North America. The dramatic rise in heights or temperatures over the Pole is the sudden stratospheric warming. The result is that pieces of the polar vortex move equatorward and with it the associated cold temperatures. Usually something similar occurs in the troposphere in the ensuing weeks.
Credit: AER/Justin Jones via Climate Central
New NOAA CPC outlook favors wetter spring for Minnesota & Upper Midwest:
Looking at the maps, I have a hunch we may trend into a snowier pattern for the second half of winter. NOAA's CPC seems to agree.
Here's the latest precip outlook from NOAA released Thursday.
THE FMA 2013 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO ILLINOIS, INDIANA, AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO, AND FOR MUCH OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
This could mean more snow in February & early March...and potentially more rain by late March & April.
It would be a godsend if we can manage a second wet spring in Minnesota for 2013.
Stay warm!
PH
-45F in northern Canada; Sub-zero invasion begins Saturday night
Posted at 9:25 AM on January 16, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-45.6F at Baker Lake, Nunavut in northern Canada within the past 24 hours
Image: Environment Canada
Temperature roller coaster ahead through Saturday
Siberian Express arrives in Minnesota Saturday night
Sub-zero Monday? Temps may not climb above zero next Monday in the metro and most of Minnesota
Coldest day in 4 years possible for the metro next Monday with a high temp near -4F
4 to 5 sub-zero mornings? looking more likely from Sunday through Thursday of next week
-15F GFS model forecast low temp in the metro next Monday
-16.6F Euro model forecast for MSP next Tuesday morning
-30F to -35F likely in northern Minnesota early next week
5:00pm Sunset in the metro tomorrow
+ 30 minutes we've gained a full half hour of evening daylight since mid-December!
"If you don't like the weather, just wait a few minutes." -attributed to Mark Twain
Riding the weather roller coaster:
There are numerous weather quotes attributed to Mark Twain that he may or may not have uttered. One thing is certain. He was an astute observer of weather. He also probably would have something "precious" to say about Minnesota's forecast for the next few days.
You may have a few other choice words to utter by Sunday.
Temps began rising before sunrise today as a "Krylon Clipper" put down a fine spray coating of snow as it sailed through Minnesota.
We peak in the lower 30s this morning...before temps tumble back through the 20s this afternoon on the next puff of advancing arctic air tonight.
After a run another run toward zero by Thursday morning...temps rebound into the 30s again Friday & Saturday.
Enjoy the temporary thaw.
Siberian Express: Coldest air in 4 years rolls in Sunday
I've been tracking the cold now as it builds over central Canada for two weeks.
Temps have been running as cold as -45F near the core of the arctic air mass up north. Think it gets cold in Minnesota? Check out the conditions and forecast at Baker Lake from Environment Canada.
Image: Environment Canada
It still looks like the mother lode is coming down as the arctic front sails south through Minnesota Saturday.
By Sunday morning, most of Minnesota should be firmly in the grasp of sub-zero temps.
Northern Minnesota could see 3-5 days below zero...from Sunday to Thursday of next week. The metro may struggle above zero most days...but temps may no reach zero Monday for the 1st time in 4 years.
Right now I can see at least 36-42 consecutive hours below zero in the Twin Cities...from about midnight Monday until 6am to noon Tuesday. It appears we dip below zero again Tuesday, Wednesday and probably Thursday morning before temps moderate back into the 20s by Friday of next week.
The European model is trending slightly colder than the GFS. The latest Euro runs forecast temps to stay below zero both Monday and Tuesday.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
This will be a respectable, attention getting cold wave.
Brighter Days:
One positive sign that can boost our spirits this time of year is the noticeable increase in daylight.
We're now gaining almost 2 minutes of additional daylight each day. Since mid-December... we will have tacked on a full 30 minutes of additional evening daylight by this weekend.
With a 5:00 pm sunset time starting tomorrow, it's now noticeably light in the western sky on clear evenings until after 5:30pm.
The drive home is brighter.
Image: sunrisesunset.com
Pond Hockey anyone?
The lack of snow is tough for snow lovers. It's sad to see the John Beargrease Sled Dog Race along the North Shore moved to March this year for lack of snowfall. I'll kick the weather lab doppler a few times to see if we can gin up some snow between now and then...but I don't see any big storms yet.
One of the great things about the cold...and lack of snow is that it's been a great winter for making ice on area lakes. Ice conditions appear to be the best in years. A "quality" freeze up and last week's thaw and refreeze has created "frozen glass" on many area lakes.
Frozen glass on Lake Harriet
Image: Tate Weston
The puck drops on two pond hockey tournaments in the Twin Cities in the next 2 weekends.
The U.S. Pond Hockey Championships kick off this weekend on Lake Nokomis.
The North American Pond Hockey Championships face off next Friday January 25th on Lake Minnetonka in Excelsior.
If you love hockey the way it used to be played...on the frozen pond you should check these classic outdoor Minnesota events out. It's a great atmosphere and events for all run into the evening.
With the Arctic blast coming mostly in between the 2 events...the forecast could work out favorably for both tournaments.
Let's see...a little pond hockey, and the highly ranked Gophers and Wild both play this weekend?
Somebody pinch me...I must be in hockey heaven.
PH
Disappearing snowcover; Clipper expected to lose its gitty-up
Posted at 3:44 PM on January 15, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Temperatures topped out in the lower 30s in portions of southern Minnesota this afternoon. Albert Lea reported 34 F at 4 p.m. CST. Bright sunshine aimed at the south facing slopes has melted and evaporated most of the snow in many places In the Twin Cities.
At the daybreak today, the official report for snow depth at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport was only a trace.
Snow depth provided by the Midwest Regional Climate Center.
So far this winter season the Twin Cities is running about ten inches below normal for snowfall, accumulating only 16.8 inches since November 1st.
NOAA GOES visible image from 245 p.m. CST.
Matching up this eye in the sky picture you can see the confirmation of the fading snowpack in southern Minnesota as well as Wisconsin. It seems a long time since Madison, Wisconsin got hammered with more than 15 inches of snow in mid December.
In this morning's Updraft, I included the most recent status of the US Drought monitor. The story continues to be a concern for moisture in Minnesota, now extendng into western Wisconsin. Persistence of the jet stream from northwest to southeast has kept the moisture laden storms from the Gulf region from reaching this far north.
This afternoon's computer runs are now backing off on the moisture with the weak system embedded in the jet stream. While some light snow is expected later tonight and Wednesday, amounts will be generally an inch or less.
Temperatures are likely to drop off this evening and before holding steady and even rise later tonight. The normal minimum is in the single digits in central Minnesota for mid January, but we'll likely wake up to 30 F in the Twin Cities on Wednesday morning. Biting winds will usher in colder air Wednesday afternoon.
Looking ahead, we expect the jet stream to tilt more from north to south over central North America. Cold air has been building in Manitoba, Canada and it's the time of the year when it finds its way to Minnesota and the Great Lakes.
Sub zero readings are likely on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning, at least over northern and central Minnesota.
Sunday's forecast maximum temperatures.
Periods of light snow may accompany the intrusions of increasingly colder air. A strong high pressure system settles over the Midwest early next week, creating ideal conditions for fridgid overnight low temperatures.
Cold start to next Tuesday morning.
CE
Old Man Winter looks to make a second half comeback
Posted at 6:28 AM on January 15, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter 2012-13
Friday night's snowfall in the Red River Valley of the North was not particularly moisture laden. While snow accumulated up to seven inches in far northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota, the water content was on the order of a quarter inch or less. Grand Forks measured 1.8 inches of snow with only 0.05 inch of water equivalent.
Summary of the Friday night snowfall from the Grand Forks NWS Office.
Snow depth from NOAA on Tuesday, January 15th.
They are still starved for moisture in northwest Minnesota. Much of the nation's midsection, extending into our neck of the woods, could use a nice midwinter snow storm.
Unfortunately the jet stream continues to travel west to east or from northwest to southeast; from Alberta, Canda to the Great Lakes. Such an upper level flow keeps the Gulf moisture confined well to our south.
The jet stream forecast from a GFS model valid at midnight Saturday indicates the source region of our cold air arriving over the weekend.
Both the NAM and the GFS models agree on a weak snow-producing system to streak from northwest to southeast on Wednesday. This Alberta Clipper, a swiftly moving kink in the jet stream, is likely to stir up some snow. Lacking a good source of moisture, Clippers typically deliver 1-3 inches of snow.
NAM precipitation for six-hour period ending at 6 p.m. CST. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage.
GFS model six-hour precipitation forecast valid at 6 p.m. CST presents a similar pattern of snowfall. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Forecaster confidence increases when models agree. This latest computer model run places the snow a little farther south than yesterday's model forecast. Stay tuned.
Chicago has so far dodged the winter of 2012-2013. You may be interested in learning more sbout the lack of snow in the Windy City.
From the NWS Chicago Office on Monday; Chicago has yet to have any meaningful cold or snow so far this winter, and it's beginning to approach the point where it's not just highly unusual, but actually record breaking.
Paul has been giving a head's up on the arctic invasion. We'll track this as the week progresses. But the medium range model is pretty aggressive on bringing frigid air down from Canada into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.
GFS forecast valid at 6 a.m. Monday. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage.
Temperatures of 20 below zero (actual air temperatures at the surface) are in red.
Let's see how this forecast for numbing cold pans out as we approach the weekend.
CE
(1 Comments)Record: 4 years of above zero highs at MSP; But models cranking out -20F next week
Posted at 4:55 PM on January 14, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
1,461 consecutive days (4 years) with high temperatures of 0°F or greater at MSP
January 15th, 2009 last time MSP high temp was below zero (-6F)
22.5 days below zero at MSP in an "average" winter
2008-2009 last time MSP exceed that number with 34 sub-zero days
Siberian Express? Models more confident on significant arctic outbreak next week
-20F European model cranking out -20F at MSP next Tuesday morning
-25F latest GFS runs cranking out -25F next Tuesday morning
Coldest air in 4 years next week? Last time MSP hit -20F was January 16th, 2009 (-22F)
A glassy frozen Lake Harriet Monday
Image: Tate Weston
1461 days and counting: Record string of above zero highs at MSP
We can all feel and sense our winters are getting milder in Minnesota. Today the Twin Cities NWS confirmed that with a number.
4 years.
Or, 1461 days...take your pick.
That's how long it's been since we've felt a sub-zero high temperature at MSP Airport. Where we're you on January 15th, 2009 when the mercury failed to climb above -6F?
The details from the Twin Cities NWS.
Streak With Highs of 0°F or Above to Reach 4 Years at MSPTuesday, January 15, 2013 will mark the 1,461st consecutive day (4 years) with high temperatures of 0°F or greater at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. The last time the high failed to reach at least zero was on January 15, 2009 when the high was only -6°F.
Below is a rundown of the top 10 streaks with high temperatures remaining at or above 0°F at MSP.
Not only have highs remained at or above zero since 2009, but lows have also struggled to fall below zero in recent years. The 30-year annual average (1981-2010) for number of days with lows below zero is 22.5.
The trend fits and supports the overall pattern of warming in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. The biggest "warming signal" remains in winter... at night. Translation? It's a lot tougher to fall below zero as our climate changes in Minnesota. It just happens less frequently.
Why should we care? I mean...sub-zero temps are a bad thing right?
Well yes...and no.
Of course it helps with heating bills and overall winter comfort. The flip side is that a week or two during winter of sub zero temps...and temps consistently reaching -20F in winter is remarkably effective at killing insects and pests like deer ticks and pine beetles that can decimate our wildlife and forests. In the absence of extreme cold, our trees are more vulnerable to invasive pests that can survive our winters, and significantly alter our pine forests, deer and Moose populations.
It is what it is.
Siberian Express ahead: "Train 1048" to bring sub-zero stretch next week?
The 4 year string of above zero daytime highs may finally come to an end in the metro next week.
Both of the main "medium range" models we look at a week or two out...the GFS & ECMWF (European) models are growing more confident about a significant sub-zero streak starting Sunday night.
Image: NOAA via Iowa State University
The Arctic Outbreak begins Sunday, peaks Tuesday morning and begins to ease Thursday of next week in the current model scenario.
By Monday morning, the GFS model brings a "1048 millibar" high pressure center south into the Dakotas. In this scenario, the core of the coldest air mass...the bitter sub-zero air... will drive down over Minnesota and eastward into the Great Lakes.
Image: NOAA GFS model for Monday morning
These winter arctic air masses bring high central pressures. 1048 is a very respectable central pressure for an arctic high in winter. We'll be feeling the effects of "Train 1048" in Minnesota next week.
Bitterly cold northwest winds will also generate some prolific Lake Effect snows on the lee side of the Great Lakes next week.
The GFS forecasts temps falling below zero on arcitc northwest winds by Sunday...and peaking at -25F Tuesday morning and staying below zero until Thursday. That's about 4-5 days below zero folks.
Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com
The European model is a little more conservative...but still plenty cold. The Euro forecast the peak of the cold Tuesday morning at -20F (-29C) with daytime highs below zero Tuesday & Wednesday of next week.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
Norhtern Minnesota? I could easily see a few nights of -30F and colder up north next week.
The latest trends of -20F on the European Model give me increasing confidence that next week's cold wave could be the real deal.
One of the more interesting talks I caught at last week's AMS conference was from Cliff Mass, a Professor at the University of Washington. I talked with Cliff after his presentation, and he is a big proponent of upgrading NOAA's GFS models and computing power. The ECMWF (European) Model has literally 100-times the supercomputing power of NOAA's GFS model, and is consistently more accurate.
When the Euro grabs onto a long range trend...it's usually right.
Either way you slice it, the bitterly cold arctic air I've been watching for two weeks now appears to be coming south next week.
Coldest week of winter? Probably.
This one will get your attention folks. This looks to be one of the few serious, life threatening arctic outbreaks we've seen in recent years in the metro.
Prepare accordingly!
PH
(2 Comments)Winter's halftime report card; Major arctic outbreak 1 week away?
Posted at 9:04 AM on January 14, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Chill eases this week as milder air gradually slides into Minnesota
Coldest week of the year on average this week in Minnesota
Halftime January 15th marks the "halfway point" of meteorological winter (Dec-Feb)
1 day below zero so far this winter (-5 on January 1st)
23 days on average at or below zero during an "average" winter in the Twin Cities (1981-2010 data)
-32F this morning at Thompson, Manitoba just north of Lake Winnipeg
Arctic Outbreak? Coldest air so far this winter forecast coming south by next Monday
Image: Pal Huttner - MPR News
Candy Coated Winter:
The weekend chill left a wintery candy coating of ice and light snow around Minnesota. Our weekend cold front left little doubt after last week's mega-thaw that it is still mid January.
6 days in a row above freezing?
Image: Twin Cities NWS
Now that's a January thaw. We peaked at a misty 41F late Friday evening, before temps crashed as the arctic front returned us to reality by Saturday morning.
Chill eases this week:
This week will gradually feel less brittle as temps moderate starting Tuesday. Polar air will retreat into Canada under a milder Pacific flow by Wednesday.
Our micro-thaw may return for a few hours Wednesday afternoon a temps briefly climb over the freezing mark.
Image: NOAA via Iowa State University
Outbreak: Coldest air so far this winter season likely next week
All signs and models point to a major arctic outbreak by next Monday.
There's plenty of cold air up in Canada, and you knew it would eventually spill south of the border. Eventually appears to be next Monday according to both he GFS and Euro models.
How cold is it up north?
Check out Environment Canada's (Canada's NOAA) forecast for Thompson, Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg, where it was a battery testing -32F this morning.
Image: Environment Canada
The blob of bitter air will last all week just north of Minnesota...where temps will not climb above zero for at least a week.
Our milder Pacific flow will buckle this weekend, and by Monday a full blown shot of arctic air appears to be coming down from Minnesota east into the Great Lakes.
How cold?
It depends which mode you believe...but the GFS is cranking out 5 mornings in a row of sub-zero temps starting next Monday...with 3 straight days of sub-zero highs next Monday-Wednesday. The GFS peaks with -24F in the metro next Wednesday AM.
Image: NOAA GFS via wxcaster.com
The Euro is a little more forgiving, but still pushes temps well below zero at night next week.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
The GFS is probably overdoing the cold a bit as it often does, and numbers may end up closer to the European ECMWF model output. (Which has better "initialization" and roughly 100 times more computing power than the GFS)
My best guess at this point a week out?
We go below zero sometime Sunday night...with 4-5 sub-zero mornings in the metro next week. -5F to -15F is quite possible in the metro, with a day or two of sub-zero highs. Northern Minnesota could easily feel the pinch of -30F for several mornings next week.
Stay tuned as w get a better handle on the magnitude and duration of next week's likely arctic outbreak.
Halftime: Meteorological Winter's report card so far
Tuesday (January 15th) marks the halfway point of meteorological winter. (Dec-Feb)
How are we doing so far?
(All data is for MSP Airport)
Temps vs. average:
December +3.7F
January + 5.8F (so far)
Overall +4.4F vs. average so far this winter
Last winter: +8F vs. average for December & January combined
Snowfall:
17.0" season snowfall so far at MSP
27" = average season snowfall by January 15th
-10" vs. average so far this winter
10.7" last winter by this date
+6.3" vs. last winter so far
Bottom line?
-This winter is running about +4F warmer than average so far, but significantly cooler (about -4F) vs. last winter.
This winter has featured below average snowfall (-10" vs. average), but significantly more snowfall (+6.3") than last winter so far.
Looking ahead, temps will likely run -5 to -10F vs. average through the next 2 weeks, and January's "cumulative" temps in Minnesota will move closer to average by month's end.
We could use more snow to catch up... but it's much closer to a "real winter" this year compared to last year...no matter how you slice it.
Southwest USA "Cold" Wave: It's all relative
I did weather in Arizona for 9 years as Chief Meteorologist for the ABC affiliate in Tucson.
Many people are surprised to hear it gets cold in Arizona. But much of Arizona is mountainous terrain...in fact Flagstaff (elevation 7,500 feet) routinely sees more snow in winter than Minnesota...season snowfall totals of 100"+ are not uncommon.
Tucson (elevation 2,200 feet) averages 20 to 30 sub-freezing nights a year.
Image: Tucson NWS
This level of cold seems minor to Minnesotans. Still, this week's cold wave does have some serious implications for citrus growers in Arizona.
Coldest temp in Downtown L.A. in 22 years:
In Los Angeles, freezing temperatures are generally a foreign concept. L.A. saw the coldest downtown temp in 22 years Sunday.
RECORD EVENT REPORT...PRELIMINARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
650 AM PST SUN JAN 13 2013
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES TODAY...
...LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IN MORE THAN 22 YEARS...
THE TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES AT USC DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING. NOT ONLY DID THAT BREAK THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE...WHICH WAS 36 DEGREES SET IN 2007...IT WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES SINCE DECEMBER 23RD 1990 WHEN THE LOW TEMPERATURE LAST DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS DAY... DECEMBER 22ND 1990... THE LOW TEMPERATURE REACHED 33 DEGREES.
THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO FREEZING IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WAS JANUARY 29TH 1979 WHEN THE LOW WAS 32 DEGREES...WHILE THE LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW FREEZING IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WAS DECEMBER 8TH 1978 WHEN THE LOW WAS 30 DEGREES.
Still you have to be amused at what passes for "cold" in Tinsel Town, and leads the news. Jimmy Kimmel has a great summary showing how La La Land reacts to "cold" weather.
It's amazing what passes for "cold" in La La Land.
PH
Winter Strikes Back: Red River Valley Blizzard; Colder air sweeps in
Posted at 5:06 PM on January 11, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
January Thaw continued for all but far NW Minnesota Friday
5th straight day above freezing at MSP Friday!
+6F Temps running close to +6F vs. average at MSP so far this month
Return to January as cold front finally slams through Minnesota early Saturday
Blizzard Warnings up for the Red River Valley into Saturday
Winter Storm Warnings including Fargo, Thief River Falls & Roseau
5" to 10" snowfall likely in Red River Valley & NW Minnesota by Saturday PM
Sub-Zero wind chills return this weekend as Canadian air sweeps in
Near 0F in the metro by Sunday morning
-15F to -20F in northern Minnesota this weekend
Wintery air here to stay for most of next week
Brief "mini-thaw" next Wednesday?
Image: snowcrystals.com
Winter Strikes Back: Tale of two forecasts
As the Twin Cities slogs through puddles Friday night, the Red River Valley is getting hammered by Blizzard conditions.
Image: WxUnderground
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013...MAJOR WINTER STORM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALLOCK...WARREN...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...
DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...
COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...ADAMS
250 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 4 TO
7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED.* NORTH WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO SATURDAY MORNING.
5" to 10" snowfall totals and high winds will make for difficult..to impossible travel in the Red River Valley into at least Saturday PM.
Wintery air returns this weekend with sub freezing...and some sub-zero temps and wind chills for all of Minnesota. The thaw is over...get ready for a return to January" in Minnesota for most of next week.
Positive sign of the times?
I knew the economy is improving, but I can't recall the last time I saw a sign like this one on my way to hockey Friday night.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
Hooray!
Have a great weekend.
PH
Ice Box thaws, as winter is about to make a return
Posted at 4:23 PM on January 10, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Freezing rain, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
The mercury soared to a record high of 48 degrees at International Falls, Minn., this afternoon. As Minnesotans know International Falls lays claims to being the "Ice Box of the Nation." It is quite ironic that the 47 F today beats the record of 41 F set just last year.
On this date, one year ago, the Minneapolis-St, Paul International Airport set a record of 52 F.
Anticipated moisture has gathered in the clouds and is falling through a cool layer of air this afternoon in southern Minnesota. Temperatures have remained above the thawing point of 32 F but as darkness sets in and the moisture cools the lowest layer near the surface, freezing rain becomes a concern for travelers.
Screen capture of Chanhassen NWS radar at 4:23 p.m. CST. Source: Weather underground
A freezing rain advisory blankets central and northern Minnesota north of a line from Montevideo to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities and east into Rice Lake, Wis. for the overnight hours. Ice accumulations are most likely from St. Cloud to Hibbing and Duluth. Travel with caution tonight.
This experimental forecast product from NOAA's NCEP indicates the area most likely to experience ice accumulation tonight and Friday morning.
The main snow producer is still in the formation stage and will spin-up in southwest Nebraska on Friday. As the low center travels northeast and strengthens on Friday afternoon, snow is expected to fall heavily north of the track of the low.
This ensemble forecast places the low near Duluth at 6 a.m. CST Saturday.
Source:NOAA
The model forecasts have not wavered much and favor northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota with several inches of snow. A winter storm watch remains in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning for that area.
NOAA's GFS model places the center of lowest pressure in central Minnesota at midnight on Friday with a swath of snow falling as shown by the colored area. The darker green shaded area is an accumulation of liquid moisture of a quarter-inch between 6 p.m. CST and midnight on Friday. Moderate- to- heavy snow should continue through the night at Roseau and Thief River Falls.
Increasing northwest winds on the backside of the system will create blowing and drifting snow. Travel around Grand Forks, Fargo and Detroit Lakes is likely to be very difficult late Friday and Saturday morning.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Fog is expected to expand in coverage over southern Minnesota overnight. Light drizzle and dense fog may hamper travel Friday morning.
Temperatures crash in Minnesota on Saturday. Morning temperatures are not likely to rise much. A cold day is on tap for Sunday.
Maximum temperatures on Sunday. Source:NWS
Seasonal temperatures may be around for awhile. We are in the coldest days of winter.
Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)A taste of winter; freezing rain, snow and cold in the offing
Posted at 6:36 AM on January 10, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Freezing rain, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms, dew point
After a quiet weather morning Minnesotans will be served up a sample of winterlike conditions with light freezing rain developing later today, particularly north of the Twin Cities.
Area outlined in purple is under a Freezing Rain Advisory, which extends north to cover the remainder of northern Minnesota for this evening. The tan shading highlights the big change in temperatures arriving on Friday night.Source:NWS Chanhassen, MN
Light rain is expected to develop later today and as the darkness sets in the precipitation will freeze on the surface. The critical factor is the low dew points this morning, which are not expected to climb much. As moisture falls evaporational cooling will occur. The ambient temperature will slip to 32 F or lower. Watch for slick spots this evening.
NOAA/NWS outlook for the most likely area to accumulate a tenth of an inch or more of ice in the next twenty-four hours.
Strong thunderstorms, producing heavy rain and the threat for severe weather, continue to pound the lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Heavy rainfall will extend up to southern Illinois today.
Screen capture of regional radar at 730 a.m. EST. Source:Weather underground
Temperatures should top out in the middle to upper 30s in southern Minnesota today as clouds thicken.
Winter's main course arrives on Friday with a potential for several inches of snow in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. A Winter Storm Watch is posted for that area. Snow should fall heavily later on Friday and taper off on Saturday. Five to ten inches of snow could accumulate from Grand Forks to Roseau.
The center of the storm system is forecast to travel on a path that puts southeast Minnesota in the mild sector on Friday, with also limited precipitation amounts. Highs could top 40 in Rochester Friday afternoon.
Surface weather map valid at 6 p.m. CST Friday.
Arctic air will sweep into the Great Lakes on Friday night and Saturday as icing on the wintry landscape. Blustery winds will add a sting to the air that we haven't experienced for some time. Bundle up on the weekend. Hoods or caps are recommended to cover the head and ears. Mittens are preferred over gloves to keep your fingers warm.
Saturday night's low temperatures. Source:NWS
Seasonal temperatures remain in our weather picture through next week.
Craig Edwards
A storm in the making, followed by an arctic blast
Posted at 6:19 PM on January 9, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Forecast models, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Winter Storm Watches have been posted from eastern Wyoming to northwest Minnesota in anticipation of a large swath of snow to streak east and north on Thursday night through Saturday morning. Impacts will be felt the hardest in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota on Friday night and Saturday.
Near blizzard conditions are possible late Friday night and Saturday that would include Grand Forks, Fargo, Thief River Falls, Roseau and Detroit Lakes.
Area covered by Winter Storm Watch. Source:NWS Grand Forks, ND
A portion of the statement from the National Weather Service in Grand Forks:
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE
TO ROSEAU AREA WHERE 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 6 TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THAT AREA SOUTH TO A VALLEY CITY TO
BEMIDJI LINE. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
* WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST
OF THE RED RIVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
This storm system is forecast to track through central Nebraska on Friday and then move into central Minnesota later on Friday night.
Source:NOAA/NWS
Updated thinking on the most likely area to receive eight or more inches of snow Friday afternoon through Saturday morning:
The GFS model places the center of lowest pressure in northern Minnesota on Saturday morning.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
A blast of arctic air will take your breath away on Saturday and have you wearing the layered look on Sunday.
This nice image from NOAA's GOES shows the snow cover over the region and the urban area of the Twin Cities.
1130 a.m. CST view from space. Source:NOAA
Looks like an active, more January-like weather pattern in store next week.
GFS model forecast temperatures at 6 a.m. Tuesday.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Highs are expected to be in the 30s for a couple more days in the Twin Cities, with Perhaps a shot at 40 F on Friday at the International Airport of Minneapolis/St. Paul.
Craig Edwards
Climate Center declares 2012 warmest year in lower 48 states; tracking the chance for moisture
Posted at 6:25 AM on January 9, 2013
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate change, Tornadoes, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Yesterday, the National Climate Data Center released a report that validates that 2012 was the warmest year on record. Historical weather observations date back to around 1871.
Source:NOAA
From the NOAA story: the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 55.3°F, which was 3.2°F above the 20th century average and 1.0°F above the previous record from 1998.
March of 2012 was outrageously mild. The high reached 80 degrees on March 17th in the Twin Cities. March pretty much delivered the record as it was 15.5 degrees above the thirty year normal for Minneapolis-St. Paul.
In the Twin Cities, it was a virtual tie for the warmest year on record with an avearge temperature of 50.8 F set in 1931.
Click on image to enlarge. Source:NWS Chanhassen, mN
You can explore more details on the annual temperature profiles for St. Cloud, Minneapolis/St. Paul and Eau Claire by clicking here.
NOAA also reported a rather low number of tornadoes in 2012.
Source:NOAA/NWS
The tornado summary for 2012 can be seen by clicking here.
Meanwhile, mild temperatures continue in Minnesota as highs once again topped out in the 30s over much of the state on Tuesday. Brisk winds kept the mercury from slipping much overnight and it was still in the lower 30s at daybreak in the Twin Cities.
Light snow traveled across northern Minnesota leaving not much more than a dusting to a little more than an inch. Radar and surface reports indicated light snow falling in northeast Minnesota this morning.
Our next weathermaker will be tracing north from the middle Mississippi Valley today. it shows up nicely on the infrared satellite image.
NOAA IR Satellite image from 530 a.m. CST indicating the coldest cloud tops with the enhanced colors over Texas this morning.
There were no reports of severe weather to the Storm Prediction Center on Tuesday from this developing weather system.
I've been monitoring our chances for precipitation as the moisture expands northward. A light, chilly rain is expected to arrive on Thursday. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of a quarter inch or less through Thursday night.
Several hints have been dropped about the prospects for snow on Friday night. Confidence is increasing for the snow accumulating several inches in northwest Minnesota and North Dakota.
Probability of snowfall of eight inches or more on Friday night. Source:NOAA NCEP
Old school synoptic meteorology paints the heaviest snow to the north of the surface low pressure track. Here's the NAM forecast for the position of the low on midnight Friday.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Note the blast of arctic air wrapping around the low in the Dakotas.
A tight temperature gradient will be present across Minnesota on Friday with high temperatures climbing into the 40s in southeast Minnesota.
Much colder air arrives as we move through the weekend. The normal max/min for this time of year in the Twin Cities are 23/7 F.
This was an interesting weather story from Down Under. Maximum temperatures soared to new records in Australia. Sorching, desertlike temperatures are shown on the map below. The deep purple in the middle of this sizzling weather map represents 129.2° F.
Image from Yahoo
More on the rain and potential snow storm on the afternoon update of Updraft.
Craig Edwards
Dense fog southeast Minnesota; a chilly rain on Thursday
Posted at 6:40 AM on January 8, 2013
by Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Temperatures climbed nicely yesterday afternoon, reaching as warm as 42 degrees in Grand Marais along the north shore of Lake Superior. As winds eased later in the day, it was quite comfortable in the sunshine.
This morning's stillness brings a fog issue in southeast Minnesota, where a dense fog advisory has been posted for Rochester. Visibility was only a quarter mile at 6 a.m. Combine the fog with some refreezing and you have the formula for some travel problems. Drive cautiously this morning. Dense fog advisory in grey continues until 10 a.m.
Source:NWS LaCrosse, Wisconsin
The mercury tumbled overnight from a very mild 36 degrees in Little Falls in central Minnesota on Monday, to a low of 1 degree this morning.
Some light snow will sweep from west to east across northern Minnesota today. Accumulations are expected to be minor.
Source:NWS Duluth, MN
It will take a little work for the sunshine to boost the temperatures above thawing in central Minnesota this afternoon, since lows were in the single digits.
Today's maximum temperatures. Source; NOAA/NWS
Winds should pick up later today and be brisk overnight, holding temperatures in the teens and lower 20s.
As a storm system begins to take shape in the southwest the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms enfolds in south Texas. Paul Huttner is at the AMS conference in Austin, Texas and may have a weather story from there on ATC.
Source:NOAA SPC
Paul is schedule to speak today on the severe flood event that hammered Duluth in June. This was one of the most extreme weather events of 2012.
Source:NWS Duluth, MN
More details on the Duluth flood can be found by clicking here.
While generous precipitation is likely to occur from eastern Texas through Arkansas and into southern Missouri the next three days, the moisture fades as it travels north on Thursday.
Potential liquid precipitation for the next through Thursday night. Source:NOAA/NCEP
Colder air arrives on Friday and we are still watching the potential for accumulating snow, particularly over northeast Minnesota on Friday night into Saturday.
Arctic air remains positioned to settle into the central US this weekend. It looks cold next week.
Valid at midnight on Wednesday, January 16th. Source:NOAA GFS model/Twisterdata.com
Craig Edwards
(3 Comments)Dusting today; January Thaw, rain & snow next week? GFS: "Siberian Express" & -30F by Jan 16th?
Posted at 8:59 AM on January 2, 2013
by Paul Huttner
(5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Snowy dusting today from weak Clipper in Minnesota
Less than 1" accumulation in most areas
January Thaw comes early this year 30s to 40F next week?
Rain to snow chance by next Thursday & Friday?
-20F to -31F? GFS lays out bitterly cold "arctic scenario" after about January 15th
Clipper "Light"
A fairly weak Alberta Clipper soils through Minnesota today. Looks for bands of occasional light snow, with totals less than half an inch in most areas.
Image:NOAA via Iowa State University
Today's dusting will be just enough to slick up a few roads, and freshen up the now respectable wintery landscape in Minnesota.
Next: January Thaw Ahead:
Minnesota is riding the boundary of some pretty respectable arctic air (-30F) to the north, and much milder Pacific air mass to the west. After 20s today, temps slide back into the teens again Thursday.
Image: NOAA via University of Illinois
Friday marks the beginning of a transition to a milder Pacific air mass. Temps may push into the 30s Friday...before cooling slightly to the upper 20s this weekend.
By Monday, a full blown "January Thaw" should lock into the Upper Midwest. Temps in the 30s are likely Monday into Thursday. A shot at 40F+ is not out of the question in southern Minnesota next week.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
Storm Brewing next Thursday & Friday?
Two of the main "medium-range" models we look at (GFS & Euro) are brewing up a potentially significant winter storm late next week.
Tracks and temperature profiles will undoubtedly change...but the models have locked onto a strong low pressure system for a few runs now that could affect the Upper Midwest next Thursday & Friday.
NOAA via College of DuPage
If the GFS scenario plays out...the system could begin as rain in southern Minnesota next Thursday, and then quickly change to (heavy?) snow.
The GFS has been performing well with the systems we saw in December....and locked onto our major December 9th snowfall a week in advance.
Again, the track could shift considerably...and it's too early to say with a high degree of credibility that snow is on the way late next week...but the potential is there.
"Siberian Express" Ahead? Severe Arctic outbreak possible after January 12th
This is yet another early "trend" indication that may or may not pan out to some degree...but.
The GFS model is locking onto a solution that brings some barbarically cold arctic air south into Minnesota after January 12th...a week from Saturday.
Image: GFS via wxcaster.com
If the scenario pans out, we could be looking at several days below zero...with temps as cold as -20F or -30F possible close to if not in the metro.
Make no mistake about it...there is bitterly cold air in Canada and inside the Arctic Circle right now. It's probably just a question of when...and not if a significant shot of sub-zero air is coming south this month.
I think Minnesotans who are hoping for or forecasting a wimpy abbreviated winter may be in for a shock by mid month.
Let's watch the model runs for a few more days before we bite on this...but at this point I'd say there's a better than 50% chance of a prolonged stretch of sub-zero air ahead for Minnesota. Days below zero and nights of -20F to -30F in the Twin Cities? We'll see...but it won't surprise me if we get close in the Jan 16th- 20th time frame.
Stay tuned!
PH
Glistening snowfall great for recreation
Posted at 5:03 PM on December 28, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Snow during the past 24 to 36 hours accumulated around 2 inches in the Twin Cities with amounts of 4 inches extending from Sioux Falls, SD to La Crosse, Wis. and on east to the Wisconsin Dells.
A nice snowfall occurred in the Arrowhead region of Minnesota and in Bayfield County, Wisconsin as well. Snowfall reports from Duluth can be seen here.
Snowfall reports for the region can be found here.
Late this afternoon, radar continued to paint a nice swath of snow through central Wisconsin.
Snapshot of La Crosse radar. Source:NOAA/Weather Underground
Roads, including Interstates 90 and 94 in Wisconsin, are slick and snow-covered in spots.
Please be cautious when traveling east and south through Wisconsin this evening.
Click here for the Wisconsin road report.
Snow has been hard to come by from St. Louis to Chicago and in the Red River Valley, but a good portion of the landscape has a nice snowcover heading into the last weekend of 2012. Another 3 to 5 inches of fresh snow are possible from southern Indiana through Pennsylvania later tonight and Saturday.
Snow depth December 28. Source:NOAA
Somewhat below seasonal temperatures are expected as we close out December 2012. We'll ring in the New Year with a crisp morning.
Low temperatures forecast for Monday night. Source:NWS
There doesn't appear to be any big snowstorms looming in our future. The cold air mass is expected to moderate later next week.
Enjoy your weekend. Paul will be back on Monday.
Craig Edwards
Steady snowfall will add up to a couple inches
Posted at 3:49 PM on December 27, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2012-13
It may not look like much on the weather map, but there is enough energy overhead to excite the clouds into producing a lovely snowfall. After dark, though, it may not be lovely on the highways.
Snow began falling in southwest Minnesota this morning and by mid-afternoon had accumulated a couple of inches. A Winter Weather Advisory for a snowfall of up to four inches is in effect for south central Minnesota through tonight.
The purple shaded areas included in the Winter Weather Advisory could see four inches of snow from late this afternoon through tonight. Source:NWS
The RAP model suggests that water equivalent will be on the order of a quarter inch in some spots in southern Minnesota. Taking into account the cold temperatures when computing the water to snow ratio, a quarter inch of moisture should translate to about four inches of snow.
RAP model liquid precipitation from around 1 p.m. CST today through 6 a.m. CST on Friday. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Snowfall in the favored regions of Bayfield County, Wis., may also reach four inches later tonight.
Fresh snowfall, crisp temperatures and rather light winds should make for ideal outdoor winter recreation on the weekend. You'll find the deeper snow in central Wisconsin if you desire a thrilling spin on the snowmobile.
Maximum Temperatures for Sunday.
Radar captured the snow expanding in coverage over Minnesota this afternoon.
Snapshot of radar valid at 4 p.m. CST. Source:Weather Underground
Accounting for the long duration of a steady snowfall, we can expect one to three inches of snow in the Twin Cities metro area by daybreak on Friday.
Craig Edwards
Red River Valley snow drought continues; accumulating snow expected south
Posted at 6:29 AM on December 27, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Bet you didn't think there would be more snow on the ground in LIttle Rock, Ark., than the Twin Cities at this time of the year. Arkansas received a big dump of snow on Christmas night. The snow depth at Little Rock on Wednesday was 10 inches, while the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport reported a mere inch on the ground.
Fargo, ND has tallied only 13.1 inches of snow for the season, about five inches below normal to date.
Storm total snowfall. Source:NWS Little Rock, AR
This picture from Arkansas has the flavor of a Minnesota landscape in December.
Image: NWS Little Rock, AR
Snow will develop in eastrern South Dakota today and spread east. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for the region from Sioux Falls, SD to Albert Lea and Mankato for later today and tonight.
NOAA's Prediction center has a small probability of snowfall reaching four inches by 7 a.m. CST Friday.
Most likely region to accumulate four inches of snow. Source:NOAA
Looking to get out and enjoy some of the snow and perhaps a little ice fishing? Check out this web link to the Minnesota DNR.
More information on winter weather safety can be found at this website provided by NOAA.
The predicted high temperatures on Saturday are in the seasonal range, with winds around 10 mph.
The storm battering the Northeast will depart to sea by Friday morning.
For coffee shop small talk today; Fargo has an annual precipitation deficit approaching 8 inches for 2012. Indianapolis accumulated 7.5 inches of snow on Wednesday, while Central Park, NY recorded more than an inch and a half of rain.
Snowfall in the Twin Cities should be on the order of an inch or two in the next twenty-four hours. Looks to be good quality snow flakes in southern Minnesota later today and tonight.
Craig Edwards
Putting folklore to the test; ring around the moon
Posted at 3:48 PM on December 26, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard, Snow, Winter 2012-13
Millions of tiny ice crystals, high in the sky as cirrus clouds, reflect and refract moonlight to form a halo around the moon. While you may have spied such a halo last night, it did not result in precipitation.
Image:NOAA/NWS
Folklore has it that a ring around the moon often signals thickening and lowering clouds, spelling a good chance for moisture reaching the ground within 18 to 24 hours. But clouds exited in last night's case, leaving us with a bright, but chilly afternoon.
Heavy snow hammers the Ohio Valley.
Six to ten inches of snow accumulated in central and southern Indiana today, accompanied by winds that grew at times to over 30 mph. The heavy snowfall extended into northern Ohio through Pennsylvania and New York this afternoon.
NOAA's forecast for the highest probability of 4 or more inches of snow overnight and into Thursday.
The GFS model tracks the center of lowest pressure swiftly to the east overnight. See previous blog to note the center of low pressure this morning.
Model forecast valid at 1 a.m. EST. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
Snapshot of radar at 4:10 p.m. CST. Blue is snow, purple is mixed precipitation.
Source:NOAA/Weather underground
While much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin saw the mercury slip below zero the last two nights, the temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has not dropped below zero yet this winter season. However, I saw one automated report of minus zero that suggested the low may have been 0.4 degrees F below zero on Christmas morning at MSP.
Overnight lows expected as of 7 a.m. EST Thursday. Source:NWS
While the northeast will get pasted with snow tonight and Thursday, we have a chance of a couple of inches of fresh snow over southwest Minnesota on Thursday and Thursday night.
A Winter weather advisory has been posted as far north as Mankato..
Shaded area under a Winter weather advisory from Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Source:NWS Chanhassen, MN.
From the Chanhassen NWS Office late this afternoon:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY.
Lighter snow accumulations are expected in central Minnesota on Thursday night into Friday. Details about how much snow we might receive in the Twin Cities will be available here on Thursday morning.
Looking out to the end of the year, it appears likely that temperatures will remain below the thawing point over much of Minnesota. New Year's Eve may be quite chilly.
NOAA recently published their assessment of the economic impacts of extreme weather events in 2012. If you wish to explore further you can click here.
Craig Edwards
Below normal temperatures, some snow Thursday night
Posted at 6:41 AM on December 26, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13
This period from Christmas to New Years often exposes the definition of winter. They are getting a full dose of winter in the Ohio Valley today with snow, wind and cold. That outslaught will move into Pennsylvania and New York thoughout the day.
Map of active Weather Warnings/Advisories from the National Weather Service. Orange shaded area defines the expectations of Blizzard like conditioins today and tonight.
Source:NWS
Specific details can be found by clicking here and selecting a target location.
NOAA's satellite image paints the broad circulation pattern early this morning.
Image from 545 a.m. CST. Source NOAA
The surface circulation pattern shows the center of the strong low pressure about to move into eastern Kentucky. This path should put central and northern Ohio in the heart of the snow storm today.
6 a.m. CST surface pressure pattern. Source:NOAA SPC
Surface weather conditions at 615 a.m. CST. Red figures indicate temperatures, Red dot indicates IFR conditions, restricting air line travel to the most experienced pilots. Wind barbs indicate wind speed in knots.
If you have plans to travel by air it might become increasingly difficult to have an ontime flight to the east coast as the day progresses.
To check on possible flight delays at major airports you can go to this link, provided by the FAA.
The RAP models show a massive area of snow later this afternoon, along with convective rainshowers and storms.
RAP valid at 7 p.m. CST today. Source:NOAA
In additon to the snow storm, severe weather is also possible along the mid Atlantic coast.
A number of tornadoes were reported yesterday, in the very unstable air mass from Texas to Alabama.
Details on yesterdays severe weather reports can be found at the SPC site.
Things will stay pretty quiet in our neck of the woods. Some minor snow accumulations are possible on Thursday night.
NAM forecast of precipitation Thursday evening, currently favoring southern Minnesota with a couple of inches of snow. Valid at midnight Thursday night.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage
NOAA's outlook for January indicates the potential for colder than normal weather to continue.
Odds are also suggest a better chance to get more oportunities for moisture in the first month of 2013.
Craig Edwards
Snow storm to track well south of Minnesota Christmas night
Posted at 12:24 PM on December 24, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
If you are planning to travel home from Minnesota after celebrating Christmas, you may encounter delays and icy roads from Oklahoma to Ohio. This snow storm will continue to move east Wednesday night.
Surface map valid at 6 p.m. CST Christmas. Source:NOAA
The highest probability of snow accumulating four inches or more Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night is enclosed by the red line.
Source:NOAA NCEP
The St. Louis National Weather Service paints this path of the storm as it develops Christmas Day.
As the storm tracks further east on Wednesday night, snow will spread into Ohio, northern Pennsylvania and New York.
Snowfall probabilities of greater than four inches Wednesday night. Source:NOAA NCEP
Bundle up Christmas morning. Temperatures will be well below zero in northwest Minnesota. It could be the first subzero morning at the Twin Cities International Airport this winter season.
Overnight minimum temperatures. Source:NWS
Craig Edwards
Anatomy of a Mega-Blizzard: Top 5 snowfall in Madison; Cold through Christmas week
Posted at 3:15 PM on December 21, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
1 foot plus snowfall totals common from Des Moines through Madison & Tomah, Wisconsin
18.5" snowfall at Middleton near Madison - highest storm total
13.3" snowfall 2nd highest 1-day snowfall ever record at Madison
15.2" snowfall 4th highest 2-day snowfall total on record at Madison
16.6" snowfall 8th highest 3-day storm total on record at Madison
13.8" snowfall at Des Moines NWS office
2.54" liquid in Milwaukee highest three day total ever recorded for December in Milwaukee
46.9% of the lower 48 USA Area Covered By Snow:
5.4% of the lower 48 USA Area Covered Last Month:
White Christmas assured for most of the northern half of the USA
Real winter is here cold & quiet through Christmas Day
Decent winter travel conditions through Christmas Eve in the Upper Midwest
Christmas Eve light snow chance?
2nd chance of snow next Friday December 28th
(Click all images to enlage for a better view)
Anatomy of a Mega-Blizzard:
You could see this one coming a long way off, and it was one for the record books.
The widespread, long lasting blizzard left a trail of deep snowfall in its wake from Colorado through Nebraska, Iowa, southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin.
The 36 hours radar loop from the La Crosse NWS show the evolution of the storm as it plows through the Upper Midwest.
Image: La Crosse NWS
Metro Close Shave:
You can see how the Twin Cities rode the northern fringe of this powerful storm, and why systems like this can give us meteorologists premature grey hair. A shift of just 50-70 miles in the storm track either way is literally the difference between no snow, and nearly a foot.
Image: La Crosse NWS
Rapid "Cyclogenesis":
The system was deepening as it moved northeast into the Upper Midwest. The system nearly achieved "bomb cyclogenesis" status as it deepened rapidly.
The Milwaukee NWS elaborates:
Image: Milwaukee NWS
The small 2 digit numbers next the "L" is the pressure in millibars with the "9" missing. So, "82" would be 982 mb, which was the lowest pressure in the storm when it was crossing the Chicago area. The storm deepened 1 millibar per hour for 15 hours. Storms that strengthen 1 mb per hour or more for at least 24 hours are considered "explosive cyclogenesis", a technical term for rapidly deepening storms that are relatively rare. So, although this storm did not meet the criteria, it came rather close. The times are in UTC or Zulu, so 18z along the CO/KS border is Noon Wed, 00z over Kansas was 6 pm Wed, etc.
Impressive system:
This system had all the ingredients to produce heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The low sucked in deep moisture from the Gulf, and cold air from behind.
Heavy snow set up about 60 to 120 miles north of the low track.
Image: La Crosse NWS
Prolific snowfall totals:
What do you get when you mix a potent low, deep moisture with enough cold air to "spin up" the system? A foot of snow.
The heaviest snowfall totals ran in a band from near Des Moines into Wisconsin.
Image: Des Moines NWS
Image: La Crosse NWS
Image: Milwaukee NWS
Madison: Ground Zero
The heaviest snowfall totals came down near Madison, Wisconsin. 18.5" ...a foot and a half fell at Middleton in Dane County.
Madison set several snowfall "top 10" records with this storm.
More details from the Milwaukee NWS.
Madison recorded 13.3 inches of snow on Thursday, December 20th, which broke the previous record of 4.6 inches, set in 2000.That one day total was the 2nd highest one day snowfall total in Madison! The record is 17.3 inches, set on December 3rd, 1990.
The two day total of 15.2 inches from Wednesday, December 19th to Thursday, December 20th was the 4th highest two day total in Madison! The record is 17.3 inches, set on December 2nd and 3rd, 1990.
The three day total of 16.6 inches from Tuesday, December 18th to Thursday, December 20th was the 8th highest three day total in Madison! The record is 19.0 inches, set on February 23rd, 24th and 25th, 1994.
Drought Buster:
How do you bust a drought? One big sloppy storm at a time.
The prolific snowfall totals contain 1" to 2" of liquid water. That will melt and help dwindling Mississippi River levels in the months to come. On the warmer side of the system, record December rainfall drenched Milwaukee & southern Wisconsin, sending rivers to bankfull, and drenching some still unfrozen soils.
Image: Milwaukee NWS
The three day total of 2.54 inches from Tuesday, December 18th to Thursday, December 20th was the highest three day total for December in Milwaukee! The old record was 2.46 inches, set on December 2nd, 3rd and 4th, 1982.Rain amounts of 1.50 to over 2.00 inches, southeast of a line from Ozaukee County to Walworth County, caused water levels in most rivers and streams to rise to near bankfull or bankfull. However, flood stages were not reached, due to the snow and colder temperatures halting runoff. The liquid equivalent totals across the rest of the area were high as well, with amounts of 0.75 inches to around 2.00 inches. This illustrated the high water content in the snow that fell, which resulted in the "heavy and wet" snow.
White Christmas tracker: In the bag all the way south to Kansas City?
The storm dumped snow as far south as Kansas City, St. Louis and central Illinois.
Image: NASA MODIS Terra via UW Madison
Some melting will occur on the southern fringes by Christmas Day, but this storm assured a white Christmas for much of Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Image: NOHRSC
Winter in Minnesota, from space:
Friday's NASA MODIS Terra image shows Minnesota's wintery landscape from space.
Image: UW Madison
You can see frozen Mille Lacs, and a black Lake Minnetonka. That is either still open water, and some really nicely forming black ice, but still unsafe in many spots.
Open water on Tonka on the Winter Solstice:
I checked the big "main" portion of the "Lower Lake" on Minnetonka today, and my ground truth confirms the MODIS view of open water on Tonka.
"Main" Lower Lake Minnetonka on the winter solstice 2012. Boken ice, new smoother ice, and open water from Sandy Beach in Cottagewood.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
This is pretty late for the big lake to freeze up...but not unprecedented.
I asked Dick Gray, the founder of the Freshwater Society in Navarre and a long time ice watcher about freeze up. Dick explains that lakes freeze up much more erratically than "ice out" in spring.
Hi Paul - Gleason Lake is a relatively small lake that joins Lake Minnetonka under Wayzata, Mn. I live on Gleason and have for 18 years, after living on the western shores of Lake Minnetonka for 40-odd years. One thing I've learned about ice-in dates is it's impossible to fix any certain date for any certain year.It's a rare year to have a lake of any size freeze over on any date, let alone stay frozen for the rest of the winter. When the ice goes out, you know it. When the lake freezes you know it only after watching part or all of the lake freeze and refreeze totally 2 or more times. I have records of ice-in for Lake Mtka and surrounding lakes, ponds and puddles and finally gave up on recording any one date for any one year.
There was one year many years ago that Mtka froze over safely everyplace and one could skate from one end the to other and into any bay with at least 5-6 inches of ice on Christmas Day There are other years iceboating and fish houses with occupants in cars were not safe with open water all over the place, especially at or in passages between one or more of the 15 "main" lakes that comprise Lake Minnetonka. This condition went into January but a final freeze-over date was impossible to document.
I assure you I would have kept track of ice-in dates if they made sense but they usually don't. For instance.on Sunday, November 25, 2012, Gleason froze up to 95%, Mtka none. Since then, Gleason has opened up and then nearly froze 2 or 3 times and was 100% frozen this morning, December 18, 2012.
Minnetonka still has lots of open water, especially that of the Lower Lake. It has a ways to go. In the open reach between Wayzata and Excelsior in the Lower Lake. a good wind will wipe out "young ice". It takes several days of freezing weather and little or no wind to have the whole lake freeze. I would suggest ice-in dates that include several days - for instance Dec.10-27, although the lake is usually frozen by Christmas but many times is not.
Mtka is so heavily used by all kinds of activity it's dangerous to cater to ice-in for all uses, such as cars on the lake, snowmobiles rounding points and entering passages. Huge schools of fish - mostly carp- keep the water churning and eats away at the ice from beneath the ice. You've got 112 miles of shoreline and almost as many variables to keep the lake open. Sorry not to be of a better help to you. Merry Christmas !!!
Dick Gray
That was actually very helpful Dick!
Thanks to you, and for all that you have done from the days I used to read your Passwords column in the Lake Minnetonka Sailor as a teenager.
You've done so much to educate Minnesotans about water in our Land of 10,000 Lakes... and even helped to inspire one young lad from Deephaven who went on to become a local meteorologist for WCCO-TV and MPR.
Thank you, and Merry Christmas Dick!
Skaters enjoy smooth ice on Carsons Bay on Lake Minnetonka on the winter solstice.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News
Making ice through Christmas:
The arrival of true winter air masses will stay with us through Christmas week. Highs will stay in the teens and low 20s, and overnight lows in the single digits above zero will help build lake ice in the next week.
The recent cold has brought some of the best lake ice in years to the inner bays of Lake Minnetonka, and other metro lakes. Skaters and ice boaters will have plenty of fresh, clean, smooth, "snow free" early season ice this year. Just be sure you know the ice is safe enough for what you're doing.
Not sure? Ask an ice fisherman nearby who has drilled some holes.
I'm away next week for the holiday. My partner in weather crime Craig Edwards will be your guide as we work through Christmas week.
A very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours!
PH
(1 Comments)Blizzard turns tragic; Iowa fatalities; National Guard deployed; 18"+ near Madison, WI
Posted at 5:41 PM on December 20, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Blizzard rages through Friday AM in parts of Iowa & Wisconsin
Fatal 25 car pileup on I-35 about 40 miles south of Mason City, Iowa
I-35 closed south of Albert Lea into Iowa
National Guard deployed in Des Moines to help scores of stranded motorists
13.8" snowfall at NWS office near Des, Moines Iowa
"Several feet high" drifts near Des Moines
100+ school districts closed Thursday across Iowa
12" snowfall total at Osseo, WI along I-94 east
18.5" snowfall totals near Madison, WI at Middleton
Near 50 mph winds gusts whipping snow around tonight
Blizzard Warnings remain in effect into Friday AM in Wisconsin & Illinois
Gradually improving road conditions Friday in the Upper Midwest.
Good travel conditions by this weekend
Image: Iowa State Patrol
Blizzard takes a toll:
The warnings were there, but the ferocity of the strongest blizzard in 2 years is taking it's toll in southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
As winds whipped snow into blinding squalls, a 25 vehicle pile up claimed lives south of Mason City along I-34. Numerous accidents forced the closure of I-35 south of Albert Lea.
KARE11 has details:
ROCHESTER, Minn. - Snow and wind have combined to force the closure of southbound lanes on Interstate 35 from Albert Lea to the Iowa border, according to the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota State Patrol.The lanes were closed at 2 p.m. due to multiple accidents and per the request of the Iowa Department of Transportation. Motorists are advised not to travel until conditions improve and MnDOT and the Minnesota State Patrol open the road. No timetable for that decision has been set.
The 25 vehicle pile up near Dows south of Mason City killed 2 people according to KCCI-TV Des Moines.
Heavy snowfall totals:
The storm has dumped the more than a foot of snow as advertised and then some.
"Ground Blizzard" as wind rages:
Gusts ot near and over 50 mph have created near zero visibilities in some areas.
One of the dangerous elements in blizzards is the rapid reductions in visibility that can occur. 50 mph winds get dry powdery snow airborne in a hurry. Local topography can "funnels" the snow into blinding squalls that race across freeways. One second you're driving along at 50 mph in decent visibility, the next is a total white out...you can't see 5 feet in front of you.
That's why roads get closed and unfortunately, massive pileups happen.
The La Crosse NWS pleads with drivers not to travel.
Dangerous Winter Storm Continues - Winds Peaking!Happening NOW...
...TRAVEL NOT ADVISED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES HAVE REPORTED A NUMBER OF ROADS CLOSED. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS EVENING.
SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WAS CAUSING MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. EXPECT THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 6 PM...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH NIGHTFALL...VISIBILITY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AND THE DANGERS IN TRAVELING WILL BE GREATER.
Roads and travel: Periodic closures of area highways are occurring because of accidents. Winona county emergency management reports highways 14, 61, and 90 are all closing at times because of accidents. Many vehicles are having trouble getting up hills and trucks are jack-knifed. Cars are stranded in Grant County in southwest Wisconsin and highways 11 and 18 are now closed. Roads in general are becoming impassable. I-35 in north central Iowa has been closed (after one 25+ car pileup).
Heavy snowfall totals:
The Twin Cities got off lucky with this system. Snowfall totals ranged from a snowy coating here at the weather lab in the west metro...to 2" - 3" from Lakeville & Hastings to 3" at Red Wing on the SE fringes of the metro.
Minnetonka & west metro Coating
Burnsville, Apple Valley & Eagan 1"
Woodbury 1.3"
Lake Elmo 1.5"
Lakeville & Hastings 2"
Red Wing 3"
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
509 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012...SNOW TOTALS RECEIVED SO FAR...
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 4 SE FOSTER WI EAU CLAIRE 0301 PM
7.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0915 AM
5.00 S OWATONNA MN STEELE 0907 AM
4.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0438 PM
2.50 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0415 PM
2.30 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0234 PM
2.00 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0125 PM
2.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1012 AM
1.50 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0655 AM
1.20 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0517 AM
RELAYED FROM WCCO
1.00 2 N APPLE VALLEY MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
1.00 3 SW EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
1.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0716 AM
Heavier totals fell in southeast Minnesota.
Rochester 7"
Spring Valley 8"
Prolific totals over 1 foot came down in Iowa and Wisconsin
0345 PM HEAVY SNOW PORTAGE M14.0 INCH COLUMBIA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
14.0 INCHES STORM TOTAL.
0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W MIDDLETON
M18.5 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
18.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 305 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL IOWA...
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
13.80 NWS OFFICE JOHNSTON IA POLK 1200 PM
13.40 1 N GRIMES IA POLK 0700 AM
13.00 MARSHALLTOWN IA MARSHALL 0700 AM
12.40 DES MOINES INT AIRPORT IA POLK 1200 PM
11.50 6 S MADRID IA DALLAS 0700 AM
11.50 WAUKEE IA DALLAS 0930 AM
11.00 5 ENE DES MOINES IA POLK 0700 AM
10.70 BOONE IA BOONE 0700 AM
10.00 ELDORA IA HARDIN 1200 PM
10.00 WATERLOO AIRPORT IA BLACK HAWK 1200 PM
Winds raged at 50+ across eastern Iowa.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 405 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012...HIGHEST WINDS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...
...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...WIND...
3 W PLEASANT GROVE (DES MOINES IA) 1202 PM DEC 20 59 MPH
2 SSE JULIEN (DUBUQUE IA) (APRSWXNET) 317 PM DEC 20 56 MPH
DAVENPORT, IA (SCOTT IA) (748 FT)(ASOS) 303 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
MACOMB MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 335 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
INDEPENDENCE (BUCHANAN IA) (AWOS) 1015 AM DEC 20 54 MPH
2 NE FREEPORT (STEPHENSON IL) 315 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
KEWANEE MUNICIPAL (HENRY IL) 353 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
BURLINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT 1253 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
CEDAR RAPIDS MUNI ARPT (LINN IA) (ASOS) 252 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
WASHINGTON (WASHINGTON IA) (AWOS) 1155 AM DEC 20 53 MPH
FORT MADISON (LEE IA) (AWOS) 1255 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
FAIRFIELD (JEFFERSON IA) (740 FT)(AWOS) 115 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
1 NE DELTA (KEOKUK IA) (664 FT)(IADOT) 1220 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
QUAD CITY INTL (ROCK ISLAND IL) (ASOS) 310 PM DEC 20 52 MPH
MOUNT PLEASANT (HENRY IA) (AWOS) 1015 AM DEC 20 52 MPH
4 SE MAYSVILLE (SCOTT IA) (IADOT) 1241 PM DEC 20 52 MPH
CLINTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (CLINTON IA) 115 PM DEC 20 51 MPH
CEDAR RAPIDS (LINN IA) (773 FT)(IADOT) 120 PM DEC 20 51 MPH
The forecast will improve as we head into the weekend.
PH
Blizzard rages south & east; Better travel this weekend; Light snow Christmas Eve?
Posted at 8:47 AM on December 20, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Blizzard Warnings continue until midnight for southeast Minnesota, Iowa & Wisconsin
Next phase wind: Gust to over 40mph in Iowa & Wisconsin today
Snow gradually fades in east metro today
MNDOT Traffic Cam Hwy 52 @ Hwy 55 in east metro
Metro snowfall: Coating (N & W) to 2"(SE) snowfall totals so far
Southeast Minnesota: 4" to 7" snowfall totals so far
Iowa & Wisconsin: numerous snowfall reports between 7" and 13"+
Twin Cities NWS multimedia briefing on storm
Riding the edge of a blizzard:
The latest round of winter weather is still ongoing today in the Upper Midwest. Ground zero today? Southeast Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
13" of snow has already fallen along I-35 near Des Moines and a fresh foot is on the ground along I-94 near Osseo, Wisconsin.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 633 AM CST THU DEC 20 20120600 AM SNOW 3 S POLK CITY M13.1 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS
STORM TOTAL AS OF 6AM. STRONG WINDS HAVE STRIPPED THE
OVERALL SNOW DEPTH DOWN TO 11 INCHES.
...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
OSSEO, WI 11.2PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
658 AM CST THU DEC 20 20120614 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 SW MADISON, WI M8.9 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER
1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM CST.
Southeast Minnesota has some 4" to 7" totals already, with snow still falling.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 815 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012...RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS...
...OLMSTED COUNTY...
ROCHESTER AIRPORT 6.0 0700 AM...WINONA COUNTY...
WINONA 4SW 7.0 0730 AM...MOWER COUNTY...
GRAND MEADOW 7.0 0515 AM
AUSTIN 6.2 0730 AM
The storm has even knocked out some communications at the Des Moines NWS.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 830 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012...WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE AT WEATHER OFFICE...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING PHONE...INTERNET...AND WEATHER RADIO OUTAGES.
THERE IS NO ESTIMATE WHEN THESE COMMUNICATION ISSUES WILL
BE RESOLVED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THIS INCONVENIENCE.
First snow: Next wind
Snow will continue today in most of Wisconsin. The next phase of the storm features increasing winds, which will howl at over 40 mph in Iowa and southern Wisconsin as the storm deepens and moves east.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 836 AM CST THU DEC 20 20120829 AM BLIZZARD OTTUMWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER
VISIBILITY 1/8 TO 1/4 DUE TO SNOW. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
Blizzard conditions will make travel difficult to dangerous in much of Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin through tonight.
Improvng roads this weekend:
Roads will gradually improve Friday, and be in much better shape this weekend. High pressure should make for a stress free pre holiday road trip in most areas this weekend.
Next snow chance: Christmas Eve?
The medium-range forecast models are panting a chance for some (light?) snow on Christmas Eve.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
White Christmas Tracker: In the bag for Upper Midwest
Today's storm has just about guaranteed a White Christmas for most of the Upper Midwest. In fact, this year could be pretty close to "climatology" as far as the southern extent of snowfall. A coating of white is likely to remain south of an Omaha-Des Moines-Chicago line by Christmas Day.
Here's a look at the climatological probability for a White Christmas from NOAA.
Safe travels!
PH
Blizzard rages south; Slick Metro AM rush south & east; Snowy coating to 3"+
Posted at 3:04 AM on December 20, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
- Update 2:45am Thursday -
Steadier snow continues to favor the south and east metro overnight into early Thursday.
Expect slick roads in these areas for AM rush hour, with light snow also falling early this morning in parts of the western metro and in the downtown urban core.
Any untreated, unplowed roads are snow covered and slippery, especially in the southeast half of the metro where it has been snowing for several hours. MNDOT Trafic Cams comfirm falling snow and snow covered roads early Thursday morning.
MNDOT Traffic Cam Hwy 13 @ Yankee Doodle Rd
MNDOT Traffic Cam Highway 77 & 13
Here are some early snowfall totals so far.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 214 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012...A FEW EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.00 DURAND WI 0210 AM
STILL SNOWING.
4.00 WANAMINGO MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.50 BLUE EARTH MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.00 OWATONNA MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 WASECA MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 FAIRMONT MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 1 S OWATONNA MN 1256 AM
STILL SNOWING.
2.50 RED WING MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
2.50 ALBERT LEA MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING
2.00 MANKATO MN 0200 AM
1.50 MANKATO MN 1221 AM
STILL SNOWING...KEYC.
0.20 5 SSE MINNEAPOLIS 1221 AM
STILL SNOWING AT MSP.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
119 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012
Madison, WI area storm report
3 INCHES OF SNOW IN PAST 2 HOURS. 4 INCH STORM TOTAL. BELTLINE IN MADISON CLOSED WESTBOUND DUE TO CRASH. MANY CRASHES AND SLIDE-OFFS IN MADISON AREA. THUNDERSNOW AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.
-Update 9:25 pm-
Here are the latest model forecast snowfall outputs this evening for MSP Airport.
NAM (oz run) 1.9"
GFS (18z) run 3.6"
Sure sign of a potent winter storm? Thundersnow. Check out the numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes (black squares) in southern Iowa on the Des Moines radar loop Wednesday evening as moisture surges north.
Snowfall began around 8:45pm in the metro with snow at several reporting sites.
-Initial post 5:22pm Wednesday-
Severe Winter Storm still on track for Iowa, SE Minnesota & Wisconsin
"Life Threatening Impacts" expected according to La Crosse NWS
Edging north - storm track continues trend to edge snow slightly north
Warnings expanded north reflect track changes
Blizzard Warnings now include Albert Lea, Rochester, Owatonna & Winona
Winter Storm Warnings now include Zumbrota & Red Wing
Winter Weather Advisories now include south & east metro
Thursday AM rush hour - metro snow likely - heaviest in southeast metro tapering as you move into far northwest metro along I-94
Growing metro snow totals? Wednesday PM GFS delivers .35" liquid - that could be "several" plowable inches if it verifies
**If you are planning any travel south along I-35 into southern Minnesota and Iowa or east along I-94 into central & southern Wisconsin through Thursday you may want to reconsider or rearrange your plans. Expect blizzard conditions with near zero visibility winds to over 40 mph, severe blowing and drifting snow, falling temperatures and possible road closures.***
Here it comes:
Our well advertised major winter storm is moving into the Upper Midwest.
Snowfall is spreading east & north will increase in coverage and intensity tonight through Thursday morning.
Here are the latest trends as the storm moves in:
Warnings expand north:
The trends we discussed Tuesday for edging the snow shield slightly north appear to be holding.
Blizzard Warnings have been expanded slightly north and now include most of southeast Minnesota. Expect 8" to 16" snowfall totals, winds gusting to ver 40 mph and 2 to 4 foot drifts in the blizzard warning areas.
The La Crosse NWS isn't pulling any punches with some apocalyptic wording.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...CHARLES CITY...NEW HAMPTON... ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...LA CROSSE 238 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON.
* 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM LA CROSSE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
* SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS....PARTICULARLY THURSDAY.
* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROAD CLOSURES AND LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE.
* THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL. THOSE TRAVELING OR COMMUTING WILL FACE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* EMERGENCY SERVICES AND RESCUES COULD BE HALTED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
Image: La Crosse NWS
Winter Storm Warnings for the tier of counties just north of that include Owatonna and Red Wing. Expect 4" to 8" snowfal totals and gusty winds in the warning areas.
Winter Weather Advisories now include the south & east metro. Expect 1" to 3"+ favoring the southeast metro with some slick roads for rush hour Thursday AM.
Metro Microcast:
The Twin Cities remains on the northern edge of snow from this storm. The slight northward shift by the GFS and Johnny Come Lately NAM and Euro models favors snow covering most of the metro early Thursday morning; just in time for AM rush. It still doesn't look like a major winter storm for the metro, but it doesn't take much to gum up the morning commute.
I expect a sharp cutoff and snowfall gradient from northwest to southeast across the metro Thursday morning. If the system comes in as currently advertised, snowfall totals should range from a coating to 1"+ in the northwest metro...to as much as 1" to 3"+ in the south & east metro.
Image: ISU
The best chance of 3"+? South metro through Dakota County and the cities of Lakeville, Farmington and Hastings in the southeast metro.
There's still one more major model cycle before the snow flies late tonight.
Stay tuned for updates.
PH
.
Severe winter storm south; Blizzard warnings; Metro on edge of snow
Posted at 8:52 AM on December 19, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Major Winter Storm moves into Upper Midwest by tonight
Blizzard Warnings in effect for most of Iowa & southern Wisconsin
Winter Storm Warnings include Albert Lea, Rochester, La Crosse & Winona
Dangerous travel conditions along I-35 south into Iowa and I-94 east into Wisconsin
10" to 16" snowfall totals in a Lamoni-Des Moines-Cedar Rapids-Dubuque-Tomah-Madison zone
5" to 10" snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota including Austin, Rochester & Winona
Metro on the edge of snow: Coating to 2" possible favoring southeast metro?
40+ mph winds by Thursday
2 to 4 foot drifts in Iowa & Wisconsin
blizzard--A severe weather condition characterized by high winds and reduced visibilities due to falling or blowing snow. -AMS Glossary of Meteorology
Image: NOAA
The "Big One" for Iowa, southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin
The most serious storm in 2 years will dump over a foot of snow and bring blizzard conditions to much of the Upper Midwest through Thursday night.
Let me say this off the top...
**If you are planning any travel south along I-35 into Iowa or east along I-94 into central & southern Wisconsin tonight or Thursday you may want to reconsider or rearrange your plans. Expect near zero visibility winds to over 40 mph, severe blowing and drifting snow, falling temperatures and possible road closures.***
There aren't many days when we would use the term "life-threatening" to describe weather in the Upper Midwest, but this is one of them. Again, there will be serious travel problems south & east of the Twin Cities in the next 48 hours.
Here's the justifiably apocalyptic wording from La Crosse NWS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 403 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012...DEVELOPING BLIZZARD TO BEGIN TONIGHT...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 40 MPH TOMORROW MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 16 INCH RANGE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TOMORROW EVENING. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING.
The System:
A rapidly deepening low presure system tracking from Oklahoma to near Chicago.
Image: NOAA
Moisture:
The system has plenty of moisture to work with. The Gulf of Mexico is "wide open" and will feed moisture into this system. The system will also draw down cold air from the north on the backside. This combination will deepen the low, and produce a strong wind field that will whip snowfall into 2 to 4 foot drifts in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday.
You can see the evolution on this NAM model loop as the storm moves northeast.
We didn't see many (any?) wrapped up storms like this last winter.
Snowfall totals:
This storm will lay down a swath of prolific snowfall totals from eastern Colorado through Nebraska & Kansas into Iowa and Wisconsin.
10" to 16" snowfall totals will be common along this path.
Blizzard Warnings: 6pm tonight through 6pm Thursday
The increasing pressure gradient tonight & Thursday will kick winds into high gear as the storm rolls through. Sustained winds of 25 to 35mph and gust over 45mph are likely within the storm zone.
This will whip snowfall into 2 to 4 foot drifts and reduce visibility to near zero.
Blizzard conditions will be widespread with this system.
In case you've forgotten...here's the full AMS Glossary definition of a "blizzard."
blizzard--A severe weather condition characterized by high winds and reduced visibilities due to falling or blowing snow.The U.S. National Weather Service specifies a wind of 30 knots (35 miles per hour) or greater, sufficient snow in the air to reduce visibility to less than 400 m (0.25 miles). Earlier definitions also included a condition of low temperatures, on the order of −7°C (20°F) or lower, or −12°C (10°F) or lower (severe blizzard). The name originated in the United States but it is also used in other countries. In the Antarctic the name is given to violent autumnal winds off the ice cap. In southeastern France, the cold north wind with snow is termed blizzard (see also boulbie). Similar storms in Russian Asia are the buran and purga. In popular usage in the United States and in England, the term is often used for any heavy snowstorm accompanied by strong winds.
Twin Cities on the edge:
Most of the models continue to keep the Twin Cities just on the northern edge of snow with this system.
Image: NAM snowfall via wxcaster.com
The GFS continues to be the "outlier" and predicts several hours of light snow sneaking into the metro from the south between midnight tonight to about 6 am Thursday.
The GFS still prints out about .18" liquid for the metro, which the model translates into about 1.6" of snow for MSP Airport. Again, this is the northernmost model solution, and the snowy edge will likely set up just south of or grazing the southeast metro overnight. But it will have to be watched for any slight northward shift.
This morning's 12z NAM has caught onto the GFS trend of shifting the northern edge of snow into the metro tonight, and now prints out 2.4" snowfall for MSP Airport.
At this point I am leaning toward a coating to as much as 2" favoring the SE metro overnight.
The much bigger message with this system is, drive 90 minutes south or east of the Twin Cities and you're going to be in full blown "winter storm" mode.
Boy Scout motto on this one..."Be prepared."
PH
(2 Comments)Major winter storm shifting slightly north? GFS indicates metro snow potential
Posted at 5:14 PM on December 18, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Major Winter Storm still on track for southeast Minnesota, Iowa & Wisconsin Wednesday night & Thursday
Slight northward shift? The GFS model (the most reliable with the past 2 systems) now brings several hours of light snow into the metro.
6" to 12" heavy snow band still likely south from Des Moines to La Crosse & Tomah
Tuesday Clipper: some 2" to 4" snowfall totals in southern Minnesota Tuesday with productive "I-90 Clipper"
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 336 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.20 1 NE FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 1245 PM
4.00 3 WSW SHERBURN MN MARTIN 1000 AM
3.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1129 AM
2.60 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0830 AM
2.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 1135 AM
1.90 1 S BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0805 AM
Updated Twin Cities quick look forecast
GFS: Not soooo fassst?
Some late breaking model trends late Tuesday could cause changes in the metro forecast for Wednesday night & Thursday.
The basic elements remain the same for the Upper Midwest.
-A major winter storm is heading for the Upper Midwest.
-Snow will be widespread in Iowa, southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin Wednesday night and Thursday.
-The heaviest snow band of 6" to 12"+ looks to be along and surrounding a Des Moines-La Corsse-Tomah-Green Bay line.
-Snow and increasing winds will create difficult to impassable travel conditions in these areas Wednesday night & Thursday.
Metro riding the (snowy?) edge:
All of the models still keep the heaviest snow bands well south & east of the Twin Cities with this system.
Until Tuesday PM, most of the models have kept most all the snow away from the metro.
But Tuesday the GFS showed a trend toward extending the northern edge of the snow shield a little further north...into the Twin Cities Wednesday night & Thursday AM.
>
Image: NOAA GFS snowfall output via wxcaster.com
The oft (and appropriately) maligned GFS has been one of the better models with the past few systems coming through Minnesota.
The Euro model is now also indicating some (lighter) snowfall for the metro Wednesday night & Thursday.
Heres' a look at the liquid moisture (QPF) laid out by the models.
GFS: .18"
Euro .10" (2.7mm)
The totals are not that impressive, but with cold air around the snow:liquid ratios in Minnesota with this system could be quite high...maybe as high as 15:1 or even 25:1.
25:1 is like winning a long shot at the track.
Here's what the paltry .18" of liquid (the going GFS forecast) translates to as snowfall at various ratios.
15:1 = 2.7"
20:1 = 3.6"
25:1 = 4.5"
That could translate into some "shovelable" and even "plowable" snow and greasy roads for parts of the metro...especially the southeastern parts.
Image: Iowa State University
The Twin Cities NWS shows some interest in this trend in their Tuesday PM forecast discussion, especially for southeast Minnesota.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE SW U.S. EARLIER TODAY...WITHSNOW ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MAIN FORECASTCONCERN IS QPF AMTS WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IFHIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS MORNING SYSTEM HAD RATIOS OF 18-1 TO 25-1. EVEN WITH A CONSERVATIVE SNOWFALL RATIO OF 15-1 COULD PRODUCE 3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH ONLY A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID WATER. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS HAVING AS MUCH AS 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER BY THU AFTN...THIS WOULD BE EQUAL TO 7.5" OF SNOW.
If the GFS trend is right, the metro may see a period of light snow from around 6pm Wednesday evening to 6-9 am Thursday. Snowfall under this scenario could produce 1" to 2"+ for parts of the metro...with 3"+ or more very close to... or possibly sneaking into parts of the metro.
Also higher snowfall totals (6"+) may shift into southeast Minnesota including Rochester, Albert Lea and Winiona. It's quite possible Twin Cities NWS will expand winter storm warnings northward by Wednesday AM.
Stay tuned as we see what the overnight & Wednesday AM model runs bring, but be aware that the snowfall forecast for the metro may change in the next 12-18 hours.
PH
Close call: Major storm tracks south of metro; Eyeing possible Post-Christmas "Gulf Storm?"
Posted at 9:10 AM on December 18, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Light snow & flurries today with accumulations favoring the I-90 corridor
Major Winter Storm heading for Iowa & Wisconsin Thursday - will clip SE Minnesota
6" to 12"+ in heavy snow band
Near blizzard conditions with wind gusts to 50mph Thursday in Wisconsin
Twin Cities on the edge of snow with this week's system
"Gulf Storm" next week? Longer range forecast hints at potential for more big snows in Upper Midwest by around December 26th-27th
Upper Midwest Storm Parade: 4 storms in 4 weeks?
We're settling into what appears to be a more active winter storms pattern for the Upper Midwest this month. First the snowy wallop on December 8-9th. Then our rare December rain event last weekend. Now a major snowmaker this week for Iowa & Wisconsin. Next, a potentially major "Gulf Storm" winding up and shooting north from the Gulf of Mexcio the day after Christmas?
Big picture please?
After months of drought and a rain & snow free landscape, this pattern change is great news for the Upper Midwest. Yes, it would have been nice if it came as beneficial soaking rains a month ago, but we'll have to take it at this point.
Next system: Major Winter Storm for Des Moines, La Crosse, Madison & Tomah
The next weather system is winding up and heading for the Upper Midwest with heavy snow by Thursday. This one should get your attention if you're planning travel Thursday south along I-35 or I-94.
Models agree on a potent and rapidly deepening surface low will track from Oklahoma to near Chicago by Thursday. This system has all the earmarks of a big snowmaker.
The track favors laying out a band of heavy snow of 6" to 12"+ from Omaha to Des Moines, La Crosse, Tomah, Madison & Green Bay.
Image: NAM snowfall via wxcaster.com
Chicago's northern suburbs may start as rain...then change to a few inches of wet snow as the system races by Thursday.
Winds behind the system will gust to 30 to 40+ mph, and I could see near blizzard conditions in much of Wisconsin Thursday & Thursday night.
If you are planning travel south or east toward Omaha, Kansas City, La Crosse, Madison or Chicago or Green Bay Thursday will bring a near impassible road conditions.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY... NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA... TOMAH...MAUSTON...VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER... PLATTEVILLE 900 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...* PLAN ON HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
* A TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
* SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.* THIS STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON TRAVEL. THOSE
TRAVELING OR COMMUTING COULD FACE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
Roads should gradually improve during the day Friday. Wednesday & Saturday will be the better travel days.
Looking Ahead: Potential Post-Christmas "Gulf Storm" on the way?
Those new sleds under the tree may get a work out after Christmas.
This is a long way out, and mostly good for speculation at this point.
But the overnight European and GFS runs now favor a possible "Gulf Storm" scenario next Wednesday & Thursday December 26th & 27th for the Upper Midwest.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
The models suggest a developing low pressure system dropping down over the Gulf of Mexico near Houston, Texas Christmas Day. The system then shoots almost straight north to just west of Milwaukee by the 26th.
Image: NOAA GFS Model
If that track pans out, it could throw a wide blanket fo heavy snow into the Upper Midwest including eastern Minnesota and the metro.
Gulf Storms are among the wettest and heaviest snow in Minnesota during winter. These big systems suck up and draw in copious amounts of warm moisture laden air from the Gulf, and wring it out over Minnesota as heavy wet snow. The Halloween-Mega Storm was essentially a "Gulf Storm."
Snow: liquid ratios with Gulf Storms can be on the order of 8:1 or even 7:1. If we get a Gulf Storm next week, it will likely lock in heavy wet snow pack for the bulk of winter....unless we can manage a prolonged, sustained warm up.
Stay tuned!
PH
Slushy Sunday underfoot; Arctic air ahead?
Posted at 3:05 PM on December 15, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
.38" rain at the Weather Lab in the west metro Saturday
Dense fog favors metro & eastern MN through Sunday morning
Coating slushy accumulation in the metro
Pond Hockey anyone? Local organizers in search of arctic air to freeze lakes solid
Wet streets and new weekend puddles Saturday
Image: Paul Huttner-MPR News
Mid December "Slop Storm:"
Welcome to the Land of 10,000 Puddles.
Our sloppy weekend system is coming in as advertised. We should be adding up inches in the metro with mid December systems. Instead I'm watching my roof and driveway melt away, and water is everywhere in the streets.
Yes, "slop storm" is a technical term we learned in meteorology school.
Our slow moving weathermaker is finally tapping slightly colder air. Snow has been falling in western Minnesota and up north. 2"+ of wet slushy snow is already down at Motley and Canby, more is on the way before the snow winds down Sunday.
Rain is changing to snow in a gradual northwest to southeast progression overnight through Sunday.
There is just enough cold air filtering in to produce some pretty decent snowfall totals in an arc from Canby & Redwood Falls, through Alex, Little Falls, Brainerd, Grand Rapids and the Iron Range...to along the North Shore & Ely.
Image: Duluth NWS
A general 3" to 6" should fall by Sunday PM in these areas, and I won't be shocked to see a few 6"+ totals.
Thick fog blankets parts of Minnesota today. MPR's Tom Weber snapped this photo along I-35 south of Duluth.
Image: Tom Weber MPR News
Metro: Rain to slush
In the Twin Cities metro, rain reluctantly changes to snow Saturday night. By midday Sunday, a slushy coating to as much as 2" will redecorate the landscape. The best chance for 2" will be in the northwest half of the metro.
Image: NOAA NAM model via wxcaster.com
The system finally pulls out Sunday as snow tapers from west to east.
Looking ahead: White cold Christmas?
The lack of arctic air behind this weekend's weather system is the reason we're not counting up inches in the metro. No major cold follows this system, and temps should stay warm for December most of next week....with highs in the lower 30s.
The models are battling it out again over the track of the next storm system, which charges out of the southwest next Wednesday.
So far the Euro likes the southern track and brings a whopper storm to Chicago, Madison & Milwaukee by next Thursday. The GFS slides the storm a little closer to Minnesota...with heavy snow into Rochester & La Crosse.....and grazes the metro.
The air looks cold enough that we should be dealing with all snow for this one. If you're planning pre-Christmas travel to Iowa, Madison or Chicago keep an eye on evolving forecasts next week.
Stay tuned as we watch the path of what looks like a productive snowmaker.
That system should begin to drag down some more "seasonable" cold south from Canada by late next week. Temps may hover in the teens or low 20s as we move toward Christmas, so any snow we have around will be here. I could see a White Christmas from Canada to Chicago this year.
The GFS "fantasyland" forecast is hinting at another potentially big snowmaker the weekend after Christmas. We'll see.
In search of safe ice
The outlook for colder temps in late December is good news for ice lovers in Minnesota.
There is still open water on some southern Minnesota lakes...in mid-December!
Check out the high resolution (250meter) visible satellite shot from NASA's MODIS Terra project from Thursday. You can clearly see the snow covered lakes on Mille Lacs and Gull, and open water on Lake Minnetonka in the west metro.
Image: SSEC at UW Madison
What ice has formed is not even close to safe in southern Minnesota.
If the GFS forecast of much colder air by late December pans out that will be great news for ice fisher folk, ice boaters and pond hockey organizers. The old saying is, you need a good solid week of temps near or below zero at night to make safe ice. It looks like that may happen as we move toward New Year's Day.
Pond Hockey anyone?
If you are looking to get out and enjoy winter, consider getting a team together for one of our famous Minnesota pond hockey tournaments in January. Even if you don't play, there are plenty of great events to enjoy.
You can check out the North American Pond Hockey Championships in Excelsior January 25-27th.
This community lost our big hearted friend Dave Bigham (Bigsy) this year, and proceeds from the event benefit the Bigham family and ALS.
The U.S. Pond Hockey Championships is the weekend of January 18-20 on Lake Nokomis. This is another great opportunity to get out and play...or watch some great hockey on our frozen Minnesota lakes.
Now if the cold air finally arrives, we'll be good to go for full blown winter on "The Frozen Tundra" in Minnesota.
PH
PH
Warm weekend system; Metro mostly rain; 1"- 2" Sunday slush? 2012 warmest year ever in metro?
Posted at 2:59 PM on December 14, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Unseasonably warm December "slop storm" for Minnesota this weekend
Some freezing rain/ice early Saturday - especially north & west of metro
Puddle Potential: Mostly rain & wet roads for the Twin Cities Saturday temps well above freezing
Wintery mix west & north of metro Saturday - ice, sleet, snow all possible
2" to 4" of sloppy snow possible for western & central & NE Minnesota
Coating to 2" of slushy snow possible Sunday for the metro (especially the NW side)
2012 on pace for warmest year ever in metro? - Details below
Mid December "slop storm"
Is this the "new normal?"
The Ides of December should be delivering snow to the Twin Cities. This year it looks like a rainy weekend mix.
Our next weathermaker rolls in this weekend. This system is unseasonably warm for mid-December, and mostly wet roads may replace the treacherous snow covered commute we faced last weekend in the metro.
Warm air wins:
We've followed this system all week long. All along, it was clear that the only wild card with the system would be temperatures.
If enough cold air could get yanked into the system it could change over to wet heavy snow. Just the right combination of above freezing air above ground and freezing at the surface? Ice storm. Too much warm air? Rain.
It looks like the warm air is winning.
Temps well above freezing will ease north with the system, and after a possible period of glaze ice from freezing rain early Saturday AM, it looks like precip will favor rain in the metro. Temps may push as high as 37-40 degrees Saturday...and that will mean wet roads by afternoon.
Image: Iowa State University
Modles favor as much as .50" of precip this weekend in the metro. Most of that may fall as rain.
Cold enough for ice & snow west & north?
It looks like the air may be just cold enough to keep a wintery mix west & north of the metro.
Look for a mix of glaze ice, sleet and snow from Redwood falls to Morris, Alex, Brainerd & Duluth. If you are planning travel into western & northern MN plan for some slick roads.
As much as 2" to 4" of wet slushy snow could accumulate in these areas by Sunday.
Image: NAM snowfall via wxcaster.com
If you're planning any travel in the western or northern half of Minnesota (except for the northwest which will be mostly snow free) plan for some slick roads at times. And you may want to load up on washer fluid this weekend!
Vanilla Icee: Sunday Metro slush?
Just enough cold air should work into the system by Saturday night that a wintery mix may develop in the Twin Cities, changing to snow by Sunday. If the models pan out, what's left of the system's moisture Sunday may be able to put down a slushy inch or 2 in the metro by Sunday evening. The best chance for a couple inches of slush will be in the west & north metro.
Overall this is an unusually warm system for this time of year.
Bigger snow next week?
The European model has hinted for a few runs now that a bigger system may be tracking toward the Upper Midwest for next week. It's early, but this system looks colder and could be a significant snow producer somewhere in Minnesota or Wisconsin by next Wednesday or Thursday.
Image: College of DuPage
Stay tuned.
2012: Warmest year ever recorded in the Twin Cities?
We know 2012 has been warm. Nationally we're on pace for the warmest year on record according to the latest analysis from NOAA.
Image: NOAA/NCDC
Looking at the numbers, it appears we also have a shot at the warmest year ever on record in the Twin Cities.
Greg Spoden from the Minnesota Climate Working Group sends along this update Friday.
As I'm sure you are aware, Twin Cities temperatures in 2012 have been pervasively warm. March 2012 was the warmest March on record by a large margin. July 2012 was the second warmest July (and the second warmest of any month) of the modern record. October was the only below-normal temperature month of the year.As the calendar year comes to a close, there exists the potential to break the record for the warmest annual average temperature found in the modern Twin Cities climate data set (1872-2012). Should the December monthly average temperature finish above 24.0 degrees, a new calendar year average temperature record will be established. This will require that the monthly average temperature exceeds the December normal average temperature (19.7 degrees) by more than 4.3 degrees. Given December temperatures reported thus far, along with outlooks for the second half of December, such a scenario appears to be plausible.
Welcome to the new normal.
Seeley: Heavy snow and dew point records
My MPR colleague and UM professor Dr. Mark Seeley has another great installment on this week's Weather Talk. Heres' an excerpt.
Topic: Heavy snowSunday, December 9th brought snow to much of the region, and some record-setting values to a few Minnesota communities. Among those with long-term climate histories reporting record snowfalls were: MSP-Airport with 10.5 inches; St Cloud Regional Airport with 11 inches; Montevideo with 12 inches; Milan with 10 inches; Chanhassen with 13.6 inches; Forest Lake with 13.5 inches; Marshall with 6 inches; and Hastings with 12 inches. According to Greg Spoden of the Minnesota State Climatology Office the 10.5 inches measured at MSP-Airport is the 4th largest daily amount for the month of December in history for the Twin Cities, trailing only 16.3 inches on December 11, 2010, 12 inches on December 28, 1982, and 10.8 inches on December 17, 1908. Many other observers reported amounts ranging from 8 to 17 inches. For some the liguid content of the snowfall was the greatest amount of moisture received in a single day since late July. Some of the record amounts of precipitation reported for December 9th included: 0.87 inches at MSP, 0.35 inches at Rochester, 0.49 inches at Winona, 0.82 inches at Milan, 0.87 inches at St Cloud, and 0.97 inches at Marshall.
December total snowfalls are already above normal in a number of areas. Madison, Montevideo and Forest Lake have reported over 17 inches. Bird Island, Chanhassen, Red Wing, Hastings, and Redwwod Falls have reported over 14 inches, while Princeton and Stillwater report over 13 inches.
Topic: New dewpoint records in 2012
Tracking as the warmest year in USA history, 2012 has already produced thousands of new daily temperature records within the nation's climate network. The Minnesota State Climatology Office also reports that several new dewpoint records were set during 2012. For the Twin Cities 12 new record daily high dewpoints (a measure of moist air) were set during the year, along with 4 new record low dewpoints (a measure of dry air). Those new record high dewpoints included 8 consecutive days in March, plus other dates:
3/16 57 F
3/17 60 F
3/18 59 F
3/19 60 F
3/20 59 F
3/21 56 F
3/22 60 F
3/23 60 F
4/16 63 F
5/27 70 F
11/10 56 F
12/03 54 FThose new record low dewpoints included:
8/17 39 F
10/07 14 F
10/11 11 F
10/12 10F
Poll: Vast mjority of Americans, even science skeptics now believe Climate Change is real
EIS field assistant, Adam LeWinter on NE rim of Birthday Canyon, atop feature called "Moab". Greenland Ice Sheet, July 2009. Black deposit in bottom of channel is cryoconite. Birthday Canyon is approximately 150 feet deep.
(Image:James Balog/Extreme Ice Survey)
Here's a timely piece from AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein on how extreme weather and obvious climate shifts are (finally) getting people to see that climate change is...well....real.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Nearly 4 out of 5 Americans now think temperatures are rising and that global warming will be a serious problem for the United States if nothing is done about it, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds.Belief and worry about climate change are inching up among Americans in general, but concern is growing faster among people who don't often trust scientists on the environment. In follow-up interviews, some of those doubters said they believe their own eyes as they've watched thermometers rise, New York City subway tunnels flood, polar ice melt and Midwestern farm fields dry up.
Overall, 78 percent of those surveyed said they thought temperatures were rising and 80 percent called it a serious problem. That's up slightly from 2009, when 75 percent thought global warming was occurring and just 73 percent thought it was a serious problem. In general, U.S. belief in global warming, according to AP-GfK and other polls, has fluctuated over the years but has stayed between about 70 and 85 percent.
Kerri Miller tackled the topic with James Balog and Will Steger on The Daily Circuit. Here's their take on 'Chasing Ice' and climate change.
This is must hear radio for anyone interested in climate change.
PH
Saturday "slop storm" still on track; Mixed bag of rain/ ice/sleet & snow?
Posted at 5:28 PM on December 13, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
37F afternoon high at MSP Tursday
+7 degrees temps vs. average so far for December 2012
12.3" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport
-2.5" vs. average so far
8" current snow depth at MSP Airport
"Slop Storm" still on the way for Minnesota Saturday
"Mixed phase" precip with this system
Freezing rain, rain, sleet & wet snow all possible
"Temperature Critical" Precip type depends on temp variations as little as 1 degree F Saturday
ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST GOOD WARMING IN THE BOTTOM 5K FT OR SO OF THE PROFILE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... MAKING PCPN-TYPE ISSUES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE MODELS WARM THINGS ALOFT... AND EQUALLY IF NOT MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES-Twin Cities NWS late Thursday forecast discussion regarding Saturay's incoming system
Staying the course:
Thursday's model runs did little to change the thinking on Saturday's approaching messy weather system.
The basic elements remain the same. A Colorado low with temps near freezing brings a mixed bag of wet sloppy precip north. Ice, rain, sleet, snow? All of the above are likely Saturday in Minnesota. The only area to escape the mess will be northwest Minnesota where little or no precip will fall.
Watching the next system:
All weather eyes are pointed southwest in the next 48 hours as our next weathermaker approaches.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
What would normally be a classic "Colorado Low" with heavy snow will track from near Omaha to Des Moines to La Crosse Saturday. Climatologically speaking, this track is ideal for heavy snow in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. It's mid-December, and we should be talking about a system that's all snow...but not this time.
All the ingredients for a major winter storm are in place, except one. A decent pool of Arctic air behind the system.
The lack of cold air in place means mixed precip types, and increased difficulty in pinpointing snowfall totals with the system. Looking for a clear cut system with all snowfall and a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio with an "easy" snow forecast? Not this time folks.
So you want to be a meteorologist, huh?
Here's what we know...and what we don't know about Saturday's approaching weather system at this hour.
What the models agree on:
1) Storm Track: A moderately strong surface low pressure system will track along an Omaha-Des Moines-La Crosse-Green Bay line Saturday. This is a favored track for precip in southern Minnesota. Confidence near 100%
Image: NOAA HPC
2) Precipitation: We're going to get precipitation Saturday.
Confidence near 100%
3) Timing: A mixed bag of freezing rain & sleet should begin in southern Minnesota overnight Friday night, and reach the metro by about 6am Saturday, and last through about 9pm Saturday evening. Overall we're looking at about 12-15 hours of precip. Confidence 90%
NAM model shows a solid precip sheild moving into Minnesota at 6am Saturday morning.
Image: College of DuPage
4) Precip totals: There is less agreement on precip totals with this system for the Twin Cities metro and much of southern Minnesota.
Image: Iowa State University
Here is the latest model precip output.
NAM .80"
GFS .43"
Euro .55"
Confidence 75%
What we don't know: (yet)
1) Precipitation type:
The thermal profile (temp layout) of the lower mile of the atmosphere will be critical with this system.
Temps in the lowest 5,000 feet look to hover near freezing, with a layer of above freezing air between the surface and 5kft. That should bring the initial waves of precip in as rain. With temps (just) below freezing at ground level early Saturday AM that could turn much of southern Minnesota and the metro into a skating rink early Saturday morning.
Image: NOAA NAM depiction of possible rain-snow line at noon Saturday
Sleet and even just plain old rain is possible as temps warm to just above freezing at ground level as Saturday morning progresses.
Precip type confidence 50%
2) Changeover time to snow & snowfall totals:
One thing that's pretty clear is that the precip should changeover to all snow at some point Saturday. When it does so will determine how much snow any one location gets Saturday.
The latest NAM runs (06Z and 12Z today) strongly suggest an earlier change to a heavy wet snow Saturday AM...probably by 9am for the metro and most of southern Minnesota.
If that early changeover happens, we are looking at several inches of heavy wet snow Saturday, with some pretty decent snowfall rates.
The GFS is not bullish at all about rushing the change to snow...and paints a scenario with mostly mixed precip and very little snowfall.
Image: Iowa State University
The Euro has leaned colder for most of the system, but gave ground to warming and the notion of mixed precip types in the late overnight run.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
Changeover time/snowfall totals confidence 30%
To my eye at this point, the NAM appears to be a reasonable looking solution, which means my weather spidey senses are leaning a little more toward the early changeover/heavier snow scenario at this point.
In any scenario it looks like the heaviet snow band (up to 6"?) could set up from eastern South Dakota through Brainerd to the North Shore where cold air may not be an issue.
Image: NAM snowfall via wxcaster.com
Stay tuned.
IPCC too conservative on climate change predictions?
Some have criticised IPCC reports for "alarmist" predicitons about future climate warming and effects. Now it appears the IPCC projections were too conservative.
Heres' a great summary of "then and now" from Climate Central and The Daily Climate:
Temperature.IPCC models use the emission scenarios discussed above to estimate average global temperature increases by the year 2100.
Projection: The IPCC's 2007 assessment projected a worst-case temperature rise of 4.3° to 11.5°F, with a high probability of 7.2°F.
Reality: We are currently on track for a rise of between 6.3° and 13.3°F, with a high probability of an increase of 9.4°F by 2100, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Other modelers are getting similar results, including a study published earlier this month by the Global Carbon Project consortium confirming the likelihood of a 9°F rise.
Why the miss? IPCC emission scenarios underestimated global CO2 emission rates, which means temperature rates were underestimated too. And it could get worse: IPCC projections haven't included likely feedbacks such as large-scale melting of Arctic permafrost and subsequent release of large quantities of CO2 and methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent, albeit shorter lived, in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide
Projection: The IPCC has always confidently projected that the Arctic sea ice pack was safe at least until 2050 or well beyond 2100.Reality: Summer sea ice is thinning faster than every climate projection, and today
scientists predict a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in years, not decades. Last summer, Arctic sea ice extent plummeted to 1.32 million square miles, the lowest level ever recorded - 50 percent below the long-term 1979 to 2000 average.
Why the miss? For scientists, it is increasingly clear that the models are under-predicting the rate of sea ice retreat because they are missing key real-world interactions.
"Sea ice modelers have speculated that the 2007 minimum was an aberration... a matter of random variability, noise in the system, that sea ice would recover.... That no longer looks tenable," says Penn State scientist and IPCC contributor Michael Mann. "It is a stunning reminder that uncertainty doesn't always act in our favor."
PH
(3 Comments)Temperature tops 40 in Twin Cities; Saturday's precipitation could be mixed bag
Posted at 4:06 PM on December 12, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
The thermometer overachieved in southern Minnesota this afternoon. A push of milder air on southwest winds to 25 mph combined with a couple hours of sunshine to boost the mercury to 48 F at Fairmont and 41 F at Minneapolis - St. Paul International Airport.
Lack of snow cover and frozen soil in Iowa allowed the mild south winds to usher in quiet a warmup. Ames, Iowa topped out at 50 F this afternoon. Note on the map below the chilly readings in the teens in northwest Minnesota.
Click on map for larger view. Valid at 3 p.m. CST. Temperatures in red. Wind barbs in knots. Source:NOAA
The milder temperatures melted considerable snow on the side streets. Some refreezing later tonight will result in slick spots. Be cautious when traveling outside the Metro late tonight.
Perhaps the easy part is predicting moisture late Friday and Saturday for much of central and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. While the storm track looks favorable for snow in the Twin Cities, relatively mild surface and low-level temperatures will result in the potential for mixed rain, snow and freezing rain.
NOAA's precipitation, liquid content, for Friday night and Saturday, issued on Wednesday afternoon.
Based on an estimate of one to eight, for liquid to snow and expecting some of the moisture to fall as mixed rain and snow, I come up with about 4 inches of snow on Saturday somewhere in central Minnesota. We are still a long way from noon Saturday. There will be several computer runs to help define the potential snowfall.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion from Chanhassen this afternoon has this to say about the Saturday's precipitation:
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 3- TO 4-INCH RANGE FROM THE REDWOOD FALLS/MONTEVIDEO AREAS ON NORTHEAST THROUGH ST CLOUD AND MORA AND THEN EAST ACROSS HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. TWO TO 3 INCHES INDICATED FOR THE TWIN CITIES.
One of the forecast tools is the vertical profile of the atmosphere. The GFS model shows temperatures slightly above 0 degrees Celsius in the Twin Cities at the surface on Saturday morning. If this forecast holds, we could experience a mixture of rain and snow and an air temperature in the lower 30s.
GFS sounding valid at 6 a.m. CST Saturday. If you click on image, reduce to 75% to view temperatures in Celsius. Temperature lines run diagonal.
Source:NOAA and Twisterdata.com
As the surface low tracks from Iowa into southern Wisconsin on Saturday it will carry the bulk of the precipitation east of Minnesota Saturday night.
GFS valid at noon CST. Precipitation from 6 a.m. to noon. Surface pressure pattern and wind with low pressure center in Iowa. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage.
Paul will be back on Thursday to track this weathermaker. A blast of arctic air is not expected to follow in the wake of Saturday's precipitation.
Craig Edwards
Moderating temperatures; warm enough for liquid precipitation
Posted at 6:22 AM on December 12, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Winter 2012-13
It's that time of year when surges of arctic air into the upper Midwest battle it out with a return push of milder air from the central plains. Temperatures can climb nicely, particularly where the landscape is free of snowcover.
Snow depth in inches for December 11th:
Source:NOAA
There will be melting snow in southern Minnesota today as temperatures top out in the upper 30s. At daybreak temperatures were already near 20 degrees in the Twin Cities, where peeks of sunshine today will boost temperatures above the thawing point.
Patchy cloud cover invaded the upper Midwest during the nighttime hours. What a difference cloud cover can make to halt raditional cooling from snow cover, especially when accompanied by a moderate push of milder air. St. Cloud saw the temperature rise from 8 below zero before midnight to 12 above by 6 a.m.
Enhanced IR satellite image from 530 a,m. CST. Colder, high cloud tops shown in light blue. Light snow was moving across far northern Minnesota this morning:
Source:NOAA/Unisys
A couple inches of fresh snow can be expected in far northern Minnesota this morning. There is a chance for a ribbon of light snow to fall in northern sections of Minnesota later tonight as well.
Good news for motorists! Warmer temperatures today will partner with the chemicals to melt some of the ice on the heavier traveled roadways. It will take a little longer to see bare/wet pavement on the side streets.
Today's expected high temperatures:
Source;NOAA/NWS
We are still tracking the potential for snow and a mixture of rain and snow for Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation amounts and type are still questionable due to the uncertainity of the low pressure track and intensity.
Remember the previous blogs have been showing a low center reaching southeast Iowa at dusk on Saturday. Here's the overnight GFS predicting a little faster movement, placing the low pressure center at 6 p.m. Saturday in southeast Wisconsin.
Precipitation could begin late Friday and will continue into Saturday. A refinement to the forecast of rain and possible snow amounts will be a work in progress.
The latest thinking from the NWS forecast staff in Chanhassen for the weather maker moving toward the upper Midwest later in the week:
A bright spot in this approaching system is much needed moisture coming on Friday night to parts of Nebraska and Iowa.
NOAA's forecast of precipitation potential for Friday and Friday night.
Happy motoring. Don't forget to fill up with window washer fluid!
Craig Edwards
Snow will hang around; more to come this weekend
Posted at 3:50 PM on December 11, 2012
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Snow, Snow cover, Winter 2012-13
The high quality snowflakes that accumulated on Sunday have already settled several inches. Chanhassen measured 13.5 inches on Dec. 9. By 6 a.m. today the snow depth was down to 8 inches.
Snow that accumulated in my yard on Sunday has settled about 4 inches from the 12.5 inches measured on Sunday evening.
How do you measure snow?
It's much easier when the snow falls with little wind as it did Sunday in the Metro. Observers are instructed to take about 10 spatial measurements and average them for a best-derived snowfall estimate. Official snowfall measurements are to be taken at six-hour intervals, beginning at 6 a.m. The total of the measurements is considered the daily snowfall or the snow storm total.
Water equivalent is collected in a gauge, as the one shown here.
Image:Craig Edwards
For display only. My gauge is positioned in a well-exposed area!
During the winter season, the funnel and measuring tube are removed so the snowfall can collect in the 4-inch gauge. Once the snow has stopped, the observer takes the gauge indoors, melts the snow and pours the water into the measuring tube.
We are early into the meteorological winter, which began Dec. 1. But snowfalls can clobber us in late autumn, as we experienced in the Halloween Blizzard in 1991.
Snow lovers were cheated last winter. This recent dump of snow should be sufficient for cross country skiing and snowmobiling for some time. Here's a link from the
Minnesota DNR on tracking conditions on the recreational trails.
Look for another very chilly night. Temperatures will drop off quickly this evening over the snow cover with nearly calm winds. Rising temperatures are expected in the early morning hours.
Tonights minimum temperatures.
Still tracking the potential snowmaker for the weekend. Models are tracking the next low pressure a little farther to the south. You'll recall the low pressure on Sunday traveled pretty much along the Iowa/Minnesota border.
The GFS model run from 6 a.m. CST paints this forecast of the surface low for Saturday evening. Masked by the precipitation, the low is in southeast Iowa. The heaviest precipitation, shown for this six-hour period, over southeast Wisconsin, may fall as a cold rain.
Source:NOAA/COD
Our colleagues at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen present this nice graphic of the potential snow for Saturday.
In case you missed it, the low at the Twin Cities International Airport late last night was 2 degrees above. It was the coldest temperature recorded at MSP this season. Monday was the first day this month when the temperature average was below normal.
Craig Edwards
Cold, but bearable; quiet much of the week
Posted at 6:31 AM on December 11, 2012
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Monday brought the coldest temperatures of the season to much of the state. If you were standing at a bus stop that's likely not breaking news to you. The mercury at the Twin Cities International Airport was on a slow decent toward zero when clouds moved in last night.
The temperature dipped to 2 degrees at MSP, which is the coldest temperature since a low of of 1 on February 11th.
As the daylight continues to grow shorter, combined with the low sun angle and snow cover, it becomes increasingly difficult to warm the surface of the northern landscape.
Maximum temperatures today will remain well below normal, but a moderation is in store for Wednesday and Thursday. For today:
20 F Monday's maximum temperature in the Twin Cities
-20 F Monday's minimum at Roseau, MN
The far southwest corner of Minnesota and Sioux Falls, SD missed out on much needed moisture from the weekend snowfall. Snow also bypassed the drought area of northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Grand Forks, ND and Sioux Falls, SD both reported a snow depth of only two inches on Monday morning.
7.76 inches Moisture deficit for 2012 at Fargo, ND
9.73 inches Moisture deficit for 2012 at Sioux Falls, SD
The National Weather Service in Chanhassen posted this map of the total snowfall for Saturday and Sunday:
Source:NOAA/NWS Chanhassen, MN
Snowfalls of this magnitude and coverage are not rare, but based on the winters we've experienced of late, this was quite a snow dump, particularly in central Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. The type of snow depth that puts a smile on the face of skiers and those that enjoy a snowmobile ride.
Be cautious if you wish to take a snowmobile across a lake. Snow is insulating the formation of ice and there wasn't much depth to the ice layer prior to the weekend snowfall.
Don't look for much in the way of additional snowfall the remainder of the work week.
As a meteorologist, I'm frequently asked, "When's the next chance for snow?" It comes with the territory. There is a tendency to over reach by believing long term computer models. The models did pretty well on the last system.
We'll be keeping our eye on the computer runs for possible snow on Saturday and Sunday. The emphasis is on possible.
GFS model valid at 6 p.m. CST Saturday.
Source; NOAA/COD
You'll note on this model forecast for Saturday evening the relatively mild air extending into northern Illinois. Here's an interesting weather highlight for 2012 out of Chicago, which set a record yesterday for the longest period without measurable snowfall:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 401 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 /501 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012/...LACK OF SNOWFALL RECORD BROKEN AT CHICAGO...
MONDAY DECEMBER 10TH MARKED THE 281ST CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT CHICAGO...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS
CONSECUTIVE DAY RECORD THAT HAD BEEN SET IN 1994. THIS IS NOW
THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO
ON RECORD. THE LAST DAY WITH OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN
CHICAGO WAS MARCH 4TH. ROCKFORD CURRENTLY STANDS AT THE SAME
AMOUNT OF DAYS...WHICH IS THE FOURTH LONGEST SUCH STRETCH IN ITS
PERIOD OF RECORD.
Here's a visible satellite image captured late morning on Monday giving you a good idea of the snow cover -- the forested area of northeast Minnesota may mask some of the snow depth:
Visible satellite image, Monday morning.
Source: NOAA
Landscape outside the Eden Prairie weather lab late Sunday afternoon:
Image: Craig Edwards
It's a whopper: Biggest snow in nearly 2 years; Cold next
Posted at 7:13 AM on December 10, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
AM flurries give way to PM sun today
9" to 16" snowfall range in metro with Sunday's snow blitz
10.5" at MSP Airport Sunday set a new daily snowfall record for December 9th
Latest snowfall totals here - final totals will be published Monday by NWS
22 months since last snowfall this big at MSP Airport (13.8" Feb 20-21, 2011)
17.3" at Sacred Heart in Renville County along Highway 212 W of the metro
White Gold Snow blitz is a bonus for ski areas and other snow driven business
"Best (snow blower) sales day since December of 2010." - anonymous quote on Sunday's run on snow blowers from MN Forecaster website
10.5 in Golden Valley........yeah Bill it has been a top notch sales day for snowblowers and shovels,at the end of the day we will be out of both,even though we got an emergency snowblower shipment yesterday morning when I made the call for more with the storm shifting south....this is awesome,this is what I'm talking about............can never lock in on a solution too early storms always shift at the last moment,best sales day since December of 2010.
Detailed map and listing of snowfall totals here.
Blizzard Conditions verified with gusts to 51 mph and near zero visibility in SW MN Sunday evening
Near -20F in northwest MN as bitterly cold air pours in behind the system
Colder Monday with temps moderating into low 30s by midweek
White Christmas in the bag? Snow should stick around next 2 weeks at least...and maybe until March
Another snow chance next weekend?
1"+ liquid water content in snow pack won't soak into soils much, but may help boost river & lake levels in spring
Image: Paul Huttner MPR News
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
935 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
...PRELIMINARY SNOW FALL TOTALS...
...MORE REPORTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...
...FINAL TOTALS WILL BE PUBLISHED MONDAY...
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
16.00 3 N LINO LAKES MN ANOKA 0741 PM
REPORT FROM COLUMBUS... STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
15.80 HUGO MN WASHINGTON 0900 PM
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
15.50 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0730 PM
LIGHT SNOW FALLING...THOUGH NOW STARTING TO
GET BLOWN BY WINDS.
15.20 HAM LAKE MN ANOKA 0643 PM
STILL SNOWING
14.90 1 ESE CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0830 PM
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
14.00 FALCON HEIGHTS MN RAMSEY 0904 PM
STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING
14.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0638 PM
STILL FALLING
14.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0523 PM
STILL SNOWING 1/4 MILE VISIBLITY.
13.50 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0625 PM
STILL SNOWING
13.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0516 PM
Image: Caltech
The "Perfect Storm"
In many ways, this turned out to be the "perfect storm" for Minnesota snow lovers.
The GFS model hinted at snow as early as last weekend for the metro. In fact the GFS was the best performing model in what turned out to be a very difficult snow forecast.
The usually more reliable NAM and European models were lost with this system most of last week. The GFS hinted that something was there all week long, but models waffled back and forth on a southern solution ...then finally grabbed hold of the trend of a bigger snow storm on Thursday night. By Friday the models painted a northern storm track that would have laid the heaviest snow out from Brainerd to Duluth. Finally, the storm track shifted south less than 12 hours before the snow began to fly.
4 main factors made this storm a huge snow producer:
1) Late storm track shift south:
Friday's models seemed to be in consensus that the storm track would lay the heaviest band of snow from about Brainerd to Duluth.
Suddenly Saturday afternoon the 18z model runs shifted the storm track south. That raised alarm bells in the Weather Lab and at NWS that metro snowfall would go higher.
The southerly track turned out to be ideal, and put the Twin Cities in the "sweet spot" for heavy snow.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
2) Slower storm:
The storm slowed down over the Upper Midwest as it took the southerly route. This meant a longer duration of snowfall...and more accumulation overall.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
3) Deeper storm:
The system actually deepened more than forecast. This produced more intense "banding" of snowfall and higher snowfall rates.
4) Cold air behind
Bitterly cold, sub-zero air sucked in behind the storm into northwest Minnesota helped deepen the system, and made it a more "efficient" snow producer. Temps hovered near or below zero in northwest Minnesota Sunday, and fed into the backside of the system on gusty northwest winds.
This helped generate blizzard conditions in western Minnesota.
This was a beautiful storm and a great start (if a little late) to the snow season in the metro and most of southern Minnesota.
White Christmas in the bag? More snow too?
Looking ahead, it is likely that most of this snow will be here on Christmas Day.
Temps this week will stay mostly below freezing. A chilly Monday with temps in the teens will give way to moderating temps into the lower 30s by mid-week.
It's early but the GFS and Euro are hinting at the chance for more snow next weekend.
Image: GFS forecast for next Saturday via College of DuPage
The GFS also hints at another chance of snow late the following week.
With temps below freezing most of the next 2 weeks and additional snow chances, I'd say were looking at a near 100% chance of a White Christmas in the metro this year.
Enjoy the snow!
PH
Snow to fall throughout the day; perhaps as much as a foot by evening
Posted at 6:25 AM on December 9, 2012
by Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13, Winter storms
Snow will continue through much of the day, with increasing winds causing near blizzard conditions in southwest Minnesota.
The National Weather Service has not changed the forecast much since last evening. Image of Warnings and Advisories from the Chanhassen NWS Office.
Source:NOAA Chanhassen NWS Office
Orang shaded region is most likely area for severe blowing and drifting snow (Blzzard Warning for today and early tonight)
Winter Storm Warning for heavy snowfall of up to 10 inches in shaded pink area.
Lighter amounts of snow are expected in purple shaded region in southeast Minnesota.
Snowfall could tally 4 to 6 inches as far north as Duluth to Two Harbors, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for today.
Snowfall amounts as of 6 a.m. CST include: 3 inches in Eden Prairie, 4.5 inches in Sacred Heart in southwest Minnesota and 6 inches in Kimball.
Snowfall amounts from specific location can be found by clicking here.
The track of the low pressure center is forecast to move along Interstate 90 from west to east today. This should keep central Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the prime area for the heaviest snowfall amounts.
NAM forecast valid at 6 p.m. CST Sunday indicating pressure gradient, temperatures at the surface, along with wind speed in direction and knots. Infer a weak low pressure circulation in south of LaCrosse, Wis., from the wind field forecast.
Source:NOAA/COD
Source:NWS Chanhassen
It is not unusual for a dry slot to develop with a snowstorm. Such was the case this morning with the snow cut off in southeast Minnesota, extending up to the Twin Cities.
Radar screen capture from around 615 a.m. CST. Source:Weather underground
Snow is likely to increase in coverage and intensity as we move through the morning hours. Expect a steady snowfall in east central Minnesota from late morning through early evening. It still appears that the potential for nearly a foot of snowfall is the highest in the north metro, including Anoka to Stillwater.
Winds are not expected to be particularly strong on the back of this snowmaking system. Temperatures will tumble into the single digits over the snowpack tonight. Be prepared for icy temperatures, perhaps subzero in some locales, on Monday morning.
Drive as conditions warrant. Travel in rural areas to the west of the Twin Cities could be particularly dangerous this morning into early afternoon.
Craig Edwards
(2 Comments)Winter Storm shifts south: Metro now in 5" to 10" heavy snow zone?
Posted at 4:10 PM on December 8, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-Updated 5:40pm-
A quick update for Saturday evening.
The Saturday PM (18z) model runs show a distinct trend toward shifting the storm track south...and potentially putting the metro into the heavier snowfall zone. Take a look at the increase in liquid totals for MSP from the morning (12z) to afternoon (18z) model runs.
NAM: .48" to .75"
GFS: .62" to 1.00"
If the trend on the 18z runs is accurate, that represents a major increase in snowfall totals for the metro...an additional 2" to 4" at least.
Based on these trends, I am now upgrading my snowfall forecast for the metro to 5" to 10" by Sunday evening. Snow may continue through much of Sunday if the latest storm trends hold.
Image: NOAA GFS via wxcaster.com
Image: Iowa State University
Craig Edwards will have the latest trends early Sunday morning on Updraft and MPR News.
PH
Winter Storm Warnings in effect from the Twin Cities north
Blizzard Warnings for western Minnesota
Snow increasing from west to east across Minnesota tonight
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
9pm to midnight snowfall approaching metro from the west
1/4S+ Heavy snow with visibility of 1/4 mile reported in Huron, SD Saturday afternoon (That's a snowfall rate of 1"+ per hour)
5" to 10" overall snowfall range for the metro by Sunday evening
2" to 4" for southern Minnesota including I-90 corridor & Rochester
6" to 12" for much of central and northern Minnesota by Sunday night
(Includes Alex, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Iron Range, Duluth & North Shore communities)
-Grand Forks NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Twin Cities NWS
-Sioux Falls NWS
Image: Twin Cities NWS
Here it comes:
It may not be a "snowpacolypse" or "snowmageddon"... but the winter storm moving through Minnesota this weekend will be the 1st significant storm of the season for the metro.
The last model runs are in before the snow flies, and my latest thinking on the storm is the same. Some highlights and specifics.
Timing: Snow spreads across western Minnesota Saturday evening, and reaches the metro most likely between 9pm and midnight. A few models hold off metro snow until after midnight.
Snowfall will be heaviest overnight into Sunday.
Storm Character: This looks to be a quick hitting snow event. Once the snowfall begins at your location, snowfall intensity and rates should pick up pretty quickly. Visibilities between 1/2 mile and 1/4 mile in moderate to heavy snow are common in the Dakotas as the system rolls through.
The heaviest snowfall rates for the metro will come through overnight into Sunday. We could see some 1/2 mi to 1/4 mi visibilities with big fat flakes in heavy snow (S+) reports in the metro in the wee hours Sunday.
Thundersnow? The system has enough strong "lift" or upward vertical velocity (UVV) that it will generate strong updrafts and has the capacity to produce a few small scale embedded thunderstorms. A lightning flash and clap of thunder in a "snowburst" is not out of the question overnight or Sunday!
Snowfall totals: After a slight northward shift Friday night, Saturday's model trends bumped the system back just a little to the south.
The 12z models cranked out some decent metro liquid precip totals.
NAM .47"
Euro .59"
GFS .60"
The 18z modles increased the moisture. Based on the PM runs, my thinking on snowfall has increased snowfall totals for the metro..
2" to 4" in southern Minnesota including the I-90 corridor cities
5" to 10" overall metro range. Best chance of 10" on your driveway by Sunday evening in the north metro.
6" to 12" "up north" including Alex, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Iron Range Cities, Duluth & North Shore.
Wind: Strong winds will kick in for western Minnesota Sunday. Blizzard warnings are flying for the Dakotas, and western Minnesota. Expect severe blowing and drifting snow out west as winds over 40mph whip the snow around and drift over roadways.
Image: NOAA
Interestingly, NWS has increased snowfall totals for the metro in their late Saturday PM forecast update.
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-POLK-BARRON-RUSK- ST. CROIX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL... STILLWATER...CHASKA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON... LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND336 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...
* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE OCCASIONALLY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 6 TO 9 INCHES ...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
* OTHER IMPACTS...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUST UP TO 35 MPH.
Overall this will be a "productive" winter storm for Minnesota. Expect the usual "winter storm" travel conditions Sunday.
Let it snow!
PH
Winter Finally Arrives: Snow resumes Saturday night; 3" to 7" metro range; heaviest north
Posted at 10:27 PM on December 7, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Season's 1st "signifcant" winter storm for metro Minnesota Saturday night & Sunday
3" to 7" likely snowfall range in the metro by Sunday evening
Heaviest totals favoring north & northeast metro
(Models favor 3" to 5" at MSP Airport - more like 5" to 7" north metro)
6" to 10" likely along I-35 north of metro to Duluth by Sunday night
Winter Storm Warning includes most of Minnesota from Morris to the metro into northern Minnesota
-Twin Cities NWS multimedia briefing here
Much colder air follows the system - near 0F by Monday AM?
Heaviest snowfall totals north of the metro - wintery travel condtions pretty much statewide
Image: Twin Cities NWS
Several 1"+ snowfall totals with Friday's "appetizer" round
MPX: 1 WNW Prior Lake [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.1 INCH at 10:00 PM CST --
MPX: Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.2 INCH at 09:30 PM CST --
MPX: Shakopee [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.3 INCH at 01:00 AM CST --
MPX: 1 W NEW Prague [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.4 INCH at 12:05 AM CST --
Image: Caltech
Winter" finally arrives
Friday was the appetizer. The main course is served tonight.
The season's 1st major winter storm rolls into Minnesota with significant, even heavy snow Saturday night & Sunday. It may not be a "Domebuster" but looks like the first significant snow for the metro since late February.
We've been talking about snow this weekend for a week in the weather lab. The models really locked onto growing snowfall totals Thursday, and by Thursday night's (0z) run it was clear we had a significant winter storm approaching Minnesota.
Here's a breakdown of our 1st sginifcant snow system of the season.
System: A fairly strong "inverted trof" of low pressure moving in from the Pacific Northwest.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
Timing: Snow should begin in western Minnesota by 6pm Saturday, and spread east into the metro between 9pm and midnight.
Duration: Snow should last in the metro until about noon Sunday. That would be about 12 hours of snow of varying intensity.
Moisture: Various models are printing out between .33" (Euro) to .53" (GFS) to .47" (NAM)
Snowfall Totals: The models estimate about a 13:1 snow:liquid ratio with this system. That would translate to an overall snowfall range of 3" to as much as 7" for the metro. I think most of the metro may end up between 3" and 6"...with the best chance of 7" in the north metro.
Image: Iowa State University
The heaviest snow with this system will be north of the metro. I could see 6" to 10" including St. Cloud, Brainerd, and Duluth by Sunday evening.
NAM snowfall via wxcaster.com
What if? If there is a scenario where the models are off, the most likely scenario is that the storm edges a bit further north. With the metro on the southern end of the heavy snow gradient, this could conceivably reduce snowfall totals.
One more shot at a (hopefully) good model run by Saturday noon.
At this point it looks like we'll see a nice coating of white around here by Sunday PM.
We're big boys and girls and used to snow in Minnesota winters, but this will be the first big snow for the metro so do expect some slick roads and snow covered travel this weekend. Gusty winds will become a factor by Sunday PM.
Let it snow!
The magic of "snow crystals"
Snowflakes are among the most amazing creations in nature. The creation ice crystals out of "thin air" is one of nature's miracles.
It's great to see snow in our landscape again, but if you want a really up close look at snowflakes...snowcrystals.com is a must see.
I've had the distinct pleasure of interviewing North Dakota native and Caltech physics professor Dr. Kenneth Libbrecht a few times. His fascination with snowflakes began as a boy in North Dakota. He turned that into a career studying and growing snow crystals in a lab...and taking amazing photographs of his creations in the lab and natural snowflakes.
All images courtesy of Caltech and snowcrystals.com
It turns out different snow crystal types form at different temperature and humidity levels.
The morphology diagram tells us a great deal about what kinds of snow crystals form under what conditions. For example, we see that thin plates and stars grow around -2 C (28 F), while columns and slender needles appear near -5 C (23 F). Plates and stars again form near -15 C (5 F), and a combination of plates and columns are made around -30 C (-22 F).
Furthermore, we see from the diagram that snow crystals tend to form simpler shapes when the humidity (supersaturation) is low, while more complex shapes at higher humidities. The most extreme shapes -- long needles around -5C and large, thin plates around -15C -- form when the humidity is especially high.
Why snow crystal shapes change so much with temperature remains something of a scientific mystery. The growth depends on exactly how water vapor molecules are incorporated into the growing ice crystal, and the physics behind this is complex and not well understood. It is the subject of current research in my lab and elsewhere.
It's great to appreciate the snowflakes we see this weekend, and the microscopic detail and magic we can't see.
PH
Winter Storm Warning: 1" to 2" tonight; 3" to 8" Saturday night & Sunday
Posted at 1:38 PM on December 7, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
-Update 10pm Friday-
A few metro snow totals now trickling in.
MPX: Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.2 INCH at 09:30 PM CST --
-Updated 6:30pm Friday-
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 612 PM CST FRI DEC 07 2012
0600 PM SNOW WINTHROP M1.0 INCH
SIBLEY CO, MN TRAINED SPOTTERSTILL SNOWING. VISIBILITY ABOUT TWO MILES.
Two snow systems for Minnesota next 48 hours
System #1 Tonight 1" to 2" in metro ending late tonight
Rush hour snow affected PM rush in some areas
MNDOT trafic cam at I-35 & Co. Rd. 42 show snow & slick highways in south metro
Image: MNDOT
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
1st snowflakes have arrived at weather lab in west metro. Expect snow coverage increase in metro next 1-2 hours. twitter.com/MPRweather/sta...
— MPR Weather (@MPRweather) December 7, 2012
Image: Caltech
System #2 Bigger winter storm for most of Minnesota Saturday night & Sunday
3" to 8" likely in the metro by Sunday evening
6" to 12"+ likely for much of northern Minnesota by Sunday night
Winter Storm Warning includes most of Minnesota from Morris to the metro into northern Minnesota
-Twin Cities NWS multimedia briefing here
Image: Twin Cities NWS
Here comes "winter"
Finally.
The season's 1st major winter storm will roll into Minnesota with significant, even heavy snow Saturday night & Sunday.
The appetizer rolls in Friday PM & evening.
Here's the latest on the 2 systems.
System #1) The first snow system is favoring the southern half of Minnesota, basically from the metro south to the Iowa border.
Light to moderate snow is moving in from South Dakota, where visibilities have dropped as low as 1/2 mile at times. Snow will overspread the metro this afternoon, and may be a factor for PM rush hour, especially the tail end and tonight.
A general area of 1" to 2" is likely, with some 3" totals possible south of the metro.
Most of the snow should end by midnight.
System #2) Season's 1st Winter Storm for metro & much of southern Minnesota.
We've been talking about snow this weekend for a week in the weather lab. The models really locked onto growing snowfall totals Thursday, and by last night's (0z) run it was clear we had a significant winter storm approaching Minnesota.
Here's a breakdown of the weekend system.
System: A fairly strong "inverted trof" of low pressure moving in from the Pacific Northwest.
Timing: Snow should begin in western Minnesota by 6pm Saturday, and spread east into the metro between 9pm and midnight.
Duration: Snow should last in the metro until about noon Sunday. That would be aboue 12 to 15 hours of snow of varying intensity.
Moisture: Various models are printing out between .28" (Euro) to .53" (GFS) to .60" (NAM)
Snowfall Totals: The models estimate about a 13:1 snow:liquid ratio with this system. That would translate to an overall snowfall range of 3" to as much as 8" for the metro. I think most of the metro may end up between 3" and 6"...with the best chance of 7" to 8" in the north metro.
Image: Iowa State University
The heaviest snow with this system will be north of the metro. I could see 6" to 12" including St. Cloud, Brainerd, Iron Range, Duluth and the North Shore by Sunday evening.
There's still some time and a few more model runs before Saturday's snow event...and thing could still change. At this point it looks like we'll see a nice coating of white around here by Sunday PM.
We're big boys and girls and used to snow in Minnesota, but this will be the first big snow for the metro so do expect some slick roads and snow covered travel this weekend.
Let it snow!
PH
Friday Flakes? Models boosting chances for heavy weekend snow
Posted at 6:01 AM on December 7, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Friday Forecast: Light snow possible PM & evening from the metro south
Coating to 2" possible in and south of metro this afternoon & evening
Up to 3"+ possible well south of metro & along I-90 corridor
Better chances for accumulating snows Saturday night into Sunday
What the models are saying for metro snow chances...
NAM: 4" snowfall Saturday night & Sunday
European model: Up to 4" Saturday night & Sunday
GFS: Up to 6"+ totals through Sunday for metro??
Image: Caltech
The latest model runs are in, and all major models have dramatically increased snow potential for Saturday night & Sunday.
With less than 36 hours until the system arrives, the NAM model now cranks out as much as 4"+ snowfall (.42" liquid) for the metro Saturday night into Sunday, with heavier totals up north.
Image: NOAA NAM model via wxcaster.com
The overnight European run has jumped on the recent trends set by the GFS and NAM models, and lays out .35" liquid, which would translate into about 4" snowfall.
Image: Norwegian Met Institute
The GFS is even more bullish, suggesting 18 hours of snow that could pile up to over 6"+ in the metro by Sunday night from an impressive .74" liquid.
If the GFS output of .74" verifies in the metro, it would lay down some impressive snow totals. Check out the latest 120 hour GFS snowfall output, keeping in mind this would include any snow that falls Friday.
NOAA GFS 120 hour snowfall output via wxcaster.com
The GFS is by far the most aggressive with the incoming system. It may be over the top, but the latest trends actually bring the other models closer to the GFS solution.
Image: Iowa State University
These totals may (or may not) be aggressive, but the main point is that it now appears that Saturday night & Sunday system may be more "productive."
I want to see Friday's model runs before I totally buy into the notion of heavier snow Saturday night & Sunday, but the latest trends suggest we may see a "plowable" snow event this weekend.
Snow lovers may finally have something to cheer about by Sunday evening.
Stay tuned as the Friday model runs trickle in!
PH
Snowy Friday PM appetizer; Growing chances for heavy weekend snow
Posted at 10:15 PM on December 6, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Update 10:15pm Thursday evening:
Tonight's model runs are in, and all major models have dramatically increased snow potential for Saturday night & Sunday.
With less than 48 hours until the system arrives, the NAM model now cranks out as much as 4" for the metro Saturday night into Sunday.
The GFS is even more bullish, suggesting 18 hours of snow that could pile up to over 6"+ in the metro by Sunday night.
Image: Iowa State University
Up north, longer snowfall duration and higher intenisty could produce a major winter storm, with totals well over 6" in some areas.
Image: NOAA NAM model via wxcaster.com
These totals may (or may not) be aggressive, but the main point is that it now appears that Saturday night & Sunday system may be more "productive." Snow lovers may finally have something to cheer about this weekend.
Stay tuned as Friday's model runs come in.
PH
Light snow likely Friday PM/evening could affect Friday PM rush hour
1" to 2" possible in metro Friday PM & evening
Up to 3"+ possible south of metro & along I-90 corrridor
Better chances for accumulating snows Saturday night into Sunday
NAM: 4" snowfall Saturday night & Sunday?
GFS: Up to 6"+ totals through Sunday for metro??
0.8" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport
12" average season snowfall to date
8" as of this date last year (and we finished with 22.3" for the season)
100% of Minnesota in some stage of drought
83.44% of Minnesota in "severe" drought (or worse)
25.25% of Minnesota now in "extreme" drought
Already "preloaded" for major drought in Spring 2013?
Image: Caltech
Snow chances: A few Friday flakes but best shot Saturday night
Friday will bring a few snowflakes to southern Minnesota.
Our best shot at picking up a few inches of snow in Minnesota comes this weekend. Here is how the two weather systems lay out at this point.
Image: Twin Cities NWS
System #1) Friday PM & evening:
A weak weather system slides through southern Minnesota Friday, and should produce a coating of snow from the metro south by Friday evening.
There are still model differences, but the best consensus seems to center around a scant coating to an inch around the Twin Cities, with as much as 1" to 3" possible in southern Minnesota centered on the I-90 corridor.
The timing of the precip should favor late PM & evening in the metro area. With temps near or just above freezing, any treated roads should be mainly wet.
Image: Iowa State University
System #2) Saturday Night & Sunday:
The stronger of the two weather systems to bracket the weekend rolls in Saturday night into Sunday.
This one has the potential to produce a few inches of snow for much of Minnesota, especially up north.
Timing appears to favor snow developing in western Minnesota Saturday afternoon, spreading ont the Twin Cities anytime after about 6pm Saturday. The bulk of accumulating snow should come Saturday night.
Right now the NAM model is the least impressed with this system. The NAM brings a brief burst of snow (1.5"?) into the metro between 6pm and 9pm Saturday evening.
The Euro is a bit more impressed, and cranks out .20" liquid which would translate into about 2" of snow Saturday night into early Sunday AM.
The GFS is the most bullish, still painting several hours of snow between 6pm Saturday evening and 6 am Sunday morning. Thursday PM's GFS run cranked out an eye opening .56" liquid for the metro. That would translate into as much as 6" of fresh snow by Sunday night if it pans out. Emphasis on "IF."
We'll need to see more runs Friday before we can get an accurate gauge on this evolving system for Saturday night. Right now, leaning toward a 1" to 4" solution for the metro and much of central Minnesota seems logical, with the best chance for 4"+ to as much as 6" to 8" up north.
GFS 120 hour snowfall via wxcaster.com
Stay tuned as Friday's model runs try and nail down Saturday evening's snow system.
Brown December Landscape:
Bleak and brown best describe the landscape around most of Minnesota today.
What should be a picturesque early season Currier and Ives scene with snow covered fields in Minnesota looks more like a sad landscape stuck somewhere in between fall and winter.
It's as if we've fallen off our own versions of a "fiscal snow cliff" in Minnesota this December. Take a look at the area of the Upper Midwest covered by snow the past 3 Decembers. Data from NOHRSC.
92.6% Dec 6, 2010
73.1% Dec 6,2011
11.8% Today
As we anticipate the chances for snow this weekend, it is clear that Minnesota is in an early season "snow drought" so far for the winter of 2012-'13.
Drought 2013? Minnesota already "preloaded"
It's amazing how fast Minnesota went from flood to drought in 2012. And there is no doubt that we close the year with an expanding drought as soils freeze up this month.
What's troubling is that as the ground freezes, we're pretty much locking any additional moisture penetration out of the soils until the thaw in spring.
Even if we get heavy winter snows (and that seems like the mother of all "ifs" right now) most of our winter snow cover will evaporate or run off into rivers & lakes next spring. That's a good thing for boosting water levels, but it won't help our parched soils.
We've now missed our window of "fall rain" to recharge soils in Minnesota. Now we'll need heavy rainfall next spring when the ground thaws if we have any hope of catching up.
If we don't get above average rainfall in April & May of next year, we're going to enter the growing season with major soil moisture deficits. Drought may be the big weather story in 2013 unless our weather pattern changes for the wetter next spring.
$8 corn may seem like a bargain in 2013 if the drought persists in the nation's bread basket.
Dr. Mark Seeley expands in this week's Weather Talk. Here's a preview.
Briefing highlight statements from Brad Rippey of the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board for the drought-monitoring period ending 7 am EST on December 4 include:-There was little change in overall U.S. drought coverage, as improvements in the Far West were offset by some drought expansion in the Southeast. The portion of the contiguous U.S. in drought fell slightly (less than one-third of a percentage point) and currently stands at 62.37%.
-The portion of the contiguous U.S. in the worst category D4, or exceptional drought remained virtually unchanged at 6% (rounded) for the seventeenth consecutive week (August 14 December 4).
-Hay in drought was unchanged at 65%. However, that value is up five points from November 13.
-Cattle in drought was also unchanged at 73%. That value is up four points from November 13.
-Winter wheat in drought was unchanged at 65%, after being as low as 63% in mid-November.
-NOTE: Since the 1950s, there have been only two years when U.S. winter wheat abandonment reached or exceeded one-quarter of the crop: 1988-89 (25% abandonment) and 2001-02 (29%). Current U.S. winter wheat conditions are lower than those observed late in the year in both 1988 and 2001and for that matter, current conditions are the lowest on record for this time of year (period of record, 1986-2012). The 1988-89 crop was planted during the drought of 1988 and was further harmed by a severe cold wave in February 1989. The 2001-02 crop was adversely affected by a La Niña-driven drought.
PH
Snow chances coming into clear(er) focus? Science behind a "red sky"
Posted at 8:48 AM on December 5, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
19F in the Twin Cities metro this morning
16F average low temp for today, December 5th
36F high at MSP this afternoon (at 3:55pm)
Light rain & freezing drizzle possible anytime after 10pm tonight
Cloudy weather "crystal ball" clearing? Snow chances coming onto better focus
"Red sky at night, sailor's delight.
Red sky at morning, sailor take warning." - unknown
Image: Paul Huttner-MPR News
Red sky in the morning:
It was a "red sky" this morning at the weather lab.
The science behind old sailor's weather lore goes something like this.
"Red sky at night." Whe the sky is red in the evening it's often caused by the setting sun in the west illuminating the "back side" of a departing storm to the east, indicating fair weather ahead.
"Red sky at morning" When the sky is red in the morning, that usually means high cirrus clouds are moving in from the west at mid-latitudes...a sign of an approaching storm. A red morning sky is caused by the sunrise in the east hitting the "front side" of an approaching storm.
I like meteorologist Jeff Haby's description of this piece of weather lore.
The approach of upper level cirrus from the west often indicates an approaching storm system. The sky will not be as red at night if a storm system is approaching because the sun is setting behind the clouds approaching from the west. A red sky at night implies "the storm system moving through has ended!"; The clouds have broken and the sun is shining on and reddening the exiting clouds. The sun will continue to shine on clouds for a period of time after the sun has dipped below the horizon (especially cirrus). Keep in mind this saying was developed before satellite, radar and modern meteorological knowledge. Much of the knowledge of an approaching storm system back then was cloud and wind patterns. Of course, this saying (weather folklore) has some profound problems such as:(1) The sky can be "reddish" near the sun at dawn and dusk (with or without clouds)
(2) storm systems do not always move straight west to east
(3) cirrus can occur without a storm system approaching or leaving. Clouds can cover one side of the sky or the other without being directly associated with a storm system
(4) the meteorological sailor may delight at an approaching storm system even while taking precautions at the same time
(5) rarely do the clouds from an approaching or exiting storm system only cover 1/2 of the eastern or western sky. The saying represents an ideal case.SUMMARY: If you can see the sunrise but the west part of the sky is dark: look out for approaching bad weather. If you can see the sunset: the weather conditions will be nice.
Image: Caltech
Rain & snow chances coming into better focus today:
The weather lab crystal ball has been admittedly "murky" this week. Thankfully today the outlook for rain & snow chances seems to be coming into (somewhat) clearer focus.
Right now I see 4 distinct chances for precip through next Tuesday.
#1) Light rain and possible freezing drizzle tonight.
A weak frontal system sliding through Minnesota will trigger a few more December rain showers tonight. Rain chances should increase after about 10pm or so, and linger into early Thursday AM. Temps may hover near freezing overnight, especially north of the metro. Watch out for some possible icy spots overnight.
Warmer air pushing in Thursday should boost highs into the lower 40s, easing any possible early AM icy threat.
Image: NOAA
It will briefly feel like spring again by noon Thursday.
#2) Snow chances Friday:
Friday looks cold enough for "all snow."
Weak low pressure zipping by to the south should be enough to trigger an area of light snow for southern Minnesota. This system has the potential to produce some 1" to 3" snowfall Friday onto Friday night, generally south of the metro to along the I-90 corridor. Redwood Falls, Mankato, Waseca, Rochester and Owatonna and the I-90 corridor cities may all see fresh snow and slick roads Friday.
Image: NOAA NAM model via College of DuPage
The Twin Cities should ride the northern edge of this system. Right now the NAM and GFS have the northern edge of the snow cutting of right over the metro. If that holds the central and southern metro could see a coating to about 1" of snow by Friday night...with just flurries or nothing in the north metro. The far south metro could see 1" to 2"
Stay tuned...the northern edge of the snow area could shift with Thursday's model runs.
#3) Saturday night & Sunday:
All the major models are still painting a stronger system passing (just) south of Chicago Sunday. This storm track typically favors heavy snows of 6"+ in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. If you are planning travel south or east along I-35 or I-94 Sunday expect snow. Saturday looks like the better travel day.
Most of the models bring a northern extension...or "baroclinic leaf" into Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday. If that happens, a fairly long duration, "light snowfall" event of 18-24 hours could set up over much of Minnesota.
Image: GFS at 6am Sunday via College of DuPage
If we can manage 18-24 hours of light snow as the upper low associated with the main storm to the south glides overhead, some decent snowfall totals could add up in the metro and much of central and south Minnesota.
It's just too early to make a specific forecast of potential snowfall Sunday...but the Euro is cranking out .20" liquid, and the GFS is closer to .37" at this early point in the forecast cycle. At a simple 10:1...that might translate into 2" to 4" for some parts of southern Minnesota, and maybe the metro.
Image: Iowa State University
Again with caveats and caution in place...stay tuned....but be aware of snow chances from about midnight Saturday night through Sunday.
#4) Tuesday AM clipper?
The GFS likes the notion of brining a follow on clipper through Minnesota late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could lay down another swath of a couple more inches...and potentially mess with Tuesday AM rush hour.
Again...it's too early to be more specific.
Big picture? We're moving into a colder pattern with a more active jet stream overhead that can bring several weaker snow producing systems into Minnesota. We may just nickel & dime our way to a few inches of snow...and a white landscape over the next 5-6 days.
Image: GFS 120 hour (5-day) snowfall totals via wxcaster.com
PH
Sunday AM freezing fog, PM thaw; Growing snow chance next weekend?
Posted at 5:11 AM on December 2, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13
Dense fog and some freezing fog on roadways will leave some icy spots early Sunday AM. Use caution travelling early Sunday AM.
Dense fog and freezing fog advisories are in effect until 9AM Sunday.
Skies should brighten Sunday PM as milder breezes push temps past the 50 degree mark in southern Minnesota. It will feel more like springtime than December in Iowa, where temps should warm into the 60s! Unreal.
Snow chance next weekend?
I've been watching the GFS model wrestle for a few days with what appears to be a chance of snow late next week or into the week of December 10th.
The latest GFS and European runs seem to be coming together around a possible snow system next weekend , most likely on Sunday that could include much of Minnesota and possibly the Twin Cities metro.
Image: NOAA GFS via College of DuPage
European Model suggests snow next Sunday: Image from Norwegian Met Institute
If the models are correct, there may be a chance for the first real significant snows of the season for much of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities next Sunday.
It's too early to be definitive, but I'll be keeping a close eye on this potential system the next few days. This one could make snow lovers happy, and dramatically increase the chances for a White Christmas.
PH
"December Thaw" to open the month this weekend
40s this weekend in most of Minnesota
Near 50 possible in southern Minnesota & the south metro this weekend - don't be shocked if your backyard thermometer says 50F Satuurday PM
Widespread 50s by Monday
32F average high temp in the metro this weekend
+15 to +20 degrees vs. average to open December
California storm rages with more than a foot of rain
79 mph wind gusts in Independence, California Friday
80 mph gust at Mount Rose, Nevada
December "Lite"
Welcome to December in Minnesota.
It might be December in Minnesota if you see;
55 degrees - temps warm enough for one last round of golf
Sunshine and temps in the 40s
"Domebuster" blizzards packing 10" to 23" of snow
Dangerously bitter cold with temps of -20F
December 2012 starts off on an unseasonably mild note.
The big western storm has created a southerly wind flow that's pumping mild air northward into the Upper Midwest.
Epic California storm rages on:
The huge California early season winter st