Updraft Category Archive: Winter 2011-12

Eye on the weekend; Kuehnast Lecture today

Posted at 6:31 AM on November 8, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Rainfall, Storms, Winter 2011-12

47 degrees for the high temperature in the Twin Cities on Wednesday.

53 degrees forecast in Minneapolis/St. Paul today. The first temperature of 50 or greater this month.

60 degrees for Eden Prairie, MN on Saturday.

Nasty weather in the Northeast US will linger for one more day from Boston, MA to Maine.

Check out the storm reports with this last nor'easter. Click here.

National surface pressure and temperature map. Forecast from GFS model valid at 1 p.m. EST today.

Source:NOAA/Twister.com

Note the low pressure system off the northeast coast of the US continuiing to weaken. You can also see the cool air pooling in western Canada and the milder air in the southern Plains. A combination of air masses that is likely to trigger some weather in the middle of the country as we head toward the weekend.

Maximun temperatures forecast for Saturday afternoon from the National Weather Service. A storm center churns through central Minnesota during the day. Wintry weather could impact far northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota.

High temperatures climb into the lower 60s close to the Twin Cities.

Potential for severe storms on Saturday is currently expected to remain south of Minnesota.

When strong storms wrap up in the southern Plains and track toward the northeast a dry slot often forms, due to the strong jet stream maximum and the dynamics in the atmosphere. Thunderstorms are likely to be concentrated southeast of Minnesota with a cold rain changing to snow in northwest Minnesota. The Twin Cities may not accumulate significant precipitation from this late autumn weather maker.

Five day precipitation accumulation ending at 6 a.m. CST Tuesday. Source:NOAA NCEP/HPC

This is Winter Hazard Awareness week in Minnesota. The National Weather Serivce in partnership with Minnesota's Public Safety Department has posted detailed information on educating you for enjoying winter weather and staying safe as well. Click here for Winter Safety and awareness.

One of the graphics on this link is the average annual snowfall for Minnesota. It's shown here.

Source:Minnesota Sate Climate Office

You can see the graphic of last year's snowfall by going to the link listed above. I'm thinking we'll see more snow than last season.

Annual Kuehnast Lecture today

Dr. Seeley and the State Climate Office will host a wonderful educational seminar on climate change that begins at 1 p.m.

Click here for details on the Kuehnast Lecture. You can see a speaker bio and abstract on each of the three presentations by clicking on the preview.

Enjoy the day and get ready for a cool down Sunday and Monday.

Craig Edwards

Forecast: Warmest March on record likely; Brilliant sky show tonight!

Posted at 8:51 AM on March 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12

1st 70 degree day of 2012 likely tomorrow!

1 average number of 70 degrees highs in the Twin Cities in March

5 most 70 degree days ever recorded in March (1910)

5 or 6 70 degree days possible in the next 2 weeks at MSP Airport!

+6.5 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport so far in March

10th straight month warmer than average in Minnesota!

+20 to 30 degrees next two weeks according to GFS & European Models

44.9 degrees warmest March on record at MSP in 1910

44 to 47 degrees likely March average temps this years at MSP Airport

917 pothole reports in the City of Minneapolis in Feb & Mar 2011

80 pothole reports this year in Feb & March!

8 snow emergencies last winter in Minneapolis (most ever)

0 snow emergencies this winter (least ever)

"Super-Conjunction" Venus & Jupiter dazzle in western evening sky!

Marek Nikodem Mar. 11, 2012 near Szubin, Poland

Details:

"Venus and Jupiter shone so brightly that it was visible even through the clouds. They are like two lanterns illuminating the darkness. It's a wonderful sight. Nikon D 700/ Nikkor 24-70, exp. 10-20 sec, f - 2.8, iso 1000"

Warmest March on record??

Monday morning I posted on the distinct possibility that this will go down as the warmest March on record. Looking at the numbers that looks more likely today.

So far we're running +6.5 degrees vs. average this month at MSP Airport and International Falls. The rest of the month is likely to be a good +20 to +30 degrees above average!

That should put us in record territory by months' end.

The warmest March on record? 1910 when the average monthly temp at MSP Airport was 44.9 degrees.

1st 70 of 2012 and more records ahead!

It looks like a lock we'll see, feel and rejoice in the 1st 70 degree temps of 2012 in Minnesota Wednesday. Can you say "flash mob" dancin' in the streets?

We'll blow Wednesday's record high of 64 out of the water, and we may set more records this week.

Take a look at the records below for MSP this week.

Now the forecast from GFS:

As you can see we have a real shot at 3 more records in the next week!

The Twin Cities NWS Tuesday AM forecast discussion highlights the extreme pattern.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

... WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS VERY WARM AND VIRTUALLY PRECIP FREE. EVEN WITH SOMETIMES MODEST MECHANICAL MIXING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RECORDS. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE 2 WARMEST DAYS LOOK LIKE WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN WE GET SURGES OF WARM AIR FROM THE PLAINS. THESE DAYS SHOULD BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN BETWEEN THE WARM SURGES...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.HISTORICALLY...WE ONLY AVERAGE ABOUT 1 DAY OR SO IN THE 70S DURING THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE MOST 70-DEGREE DAYS CAME IN 1910 WHEN THERE WERE 5 SCATTERED ABOUT THE MONTH...WITH THE MAJORITY COMING NEAR THE END OF THE MARCH THAT YEAR. WE MAY SEE 5-6 DAYS IN A ROW WHERE THE MERCURY ECLIPSES 70 DEGREES IN THE TWIN CITIES OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF.

Mild winter= fewer potholes!

Here's one thing we can all be thankful for this spring. Fewer potholes. Less snowmelt and fewer freeze-thaw cycles mean road crews can take on other tasks instead of patching pesky potholes.

My former colleagues at WCCO-TV have the story.

Nice to have a smoother ride this spring.

Weird "Phoenix Flash" still a mystery:

Who says AM weather & traffic in Phoenix is boring? No word yet on what caused the mystery flash in Phoenix.

Mysterious Light Flashes During Traffic on Fox 10: MyFoxPHOENIX.com

Venus-Jupiter "Super-Conjunction" peaks tonight!

Venus and Jupiter will dazzle again in the western sky all week. The conjunction is the best in years.

The two planets reach the closest tonight at justt 3 degrees apart int he western sky. Venus is the brighter of the two, and will climb higher in the coming days.

Look in the western sky after sunset and enjoy!

"Record" Northern Lights?

Our active sun has kept Northern Lights going for nearly two weeks at high latitudes.

BROKEN RECORD? "The recent sustained activity of sunspot AR1429 has kept the Arctic Circle alight with auroras for almost two weeks. "I have spent many thousands of hours watching and photographing the Northern Lights," says aurora tour guide Chad Blakely of Abisko Sweden, "and I can honestly say that I have never seen the auroras this strong for so many days in a row." In a movie he made last night, March 12th, a green tornado of light swirls across Venus and Jupiter:"

Check out the amazing video from Sweden.

Powerful Aurora borealis over Abisko National Park. 03-12-2012 from Lights Over Lapland on Vimeo.

PH

Disappearing Great Lakes Ice; Thawing soils soak up rain; 1st 70 Wednesday!

Posted at 5:43 PM on March 12, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

79% less winter ice cover on Lake Superior since 1973!

71% overall reduction in winter ice cover on the Great Lakes

.25" to .50" rainfall Monday at many locations

Soaking in rain soaking in now in southern Minnesota as soils thaw in top few inches

44 degrees 6 - inch soil temperature at Albert Lea & Redwood Falls!

Venus-Jupiter conjunction this week- best in years!

Disappearing Great Lakes Ice!

It's no surprise to anyone who's lived on the North Shore for decades that there's less ice on Superior than there used to be.

What's surprising is how much less.

A satellite photo of Lake Superior taken Friday afternoon shows little ice on the lake. (Photo by NOAA/ Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison via Duluth News Tribune)

A recent study in the Journal of Climate tags a 79% decrease in the coverage of ice on Lake Superior since 1973. Overall the Great Lakes are sporting 71% less ice in winter.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover, 1973-2010*

NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan

"There was a significant downward trend in ice coverage from 1973 to the present for all of the lakes, with Lake Ontario having the largest, and Lakes Erie and St. Clair having the smallest. The translated total loss in lake ice over the entire 38-yr record varies from 37% in Lake St. Clair (least) to 88% in Lake Ontario (most). The total loss for overall Great Lakes ice coverage is 71%, while Lake Superior places second with a 79% loss."

The data comes from satellite and Coast Guard observations between 1973 and 2010.

The data did not include this winter, when a paltry 5% of the Great Lakes froze over.

Compare that to 94% in 1979, and a longer term average of 40%.

Why do we care?

So less ice on the Great Lakes is a good thing right? Well yes and no.

-It may help extend the shipping season, but it also exposes more surface water to evaporation in winter which can reduce lake levels.

-It may also increase winter wave action and shoreline erosion.

-With more of the lake open in winter, lake effect snowfall can actually increase during cold air outbreaks. Ice cover reduces lake effect snow.

What's causing the changes? That's the 64k question of course. Likely suspects include ENSO cycles, AO phases and yes, climate change.

Here's more from the Duluth News Tribune:

1st spring soaker!

Monday's rainfall was a precious .25" to .50" at most locations. It was especially precious because it soaked into drought parched soils in southern Minnesota.
(click image to enlarge!)

The weekend warm spell thawed soils in southern Minnesota. A check of real time soil temps at southern Minnesota locations Monday PM shows several spots well above freezing at 6" soil depth.

Albert Lea 44 degrees
Redwood Falls 44 degrees
Marshall 39 degrees
Mankato 34.5 degrees

A look at the soil temp plot for Waseca at various depths shows the trends.

So the rain we got Monday is soaking into the top few inches of soil from the Twin Cities south. That's great news. Soils are still basically frozen west and north of the metro.

Sky Show this week! Best Venus/Jupiter conjunction in years

No doubt you've already seen the awesome sight in the western evening sky as bright Venus snuggles up with Jupiter after sunset.

You can't miss the two on clear nights. And you should be able to see them the rest of the week in the west after the clouds clear starting on Tuesday.

On Thursday night, the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter will be the closest in years.

Enjoy!

PH

Aurora Update: 2nd CME blast due Saturday night; 3rd Sunday night?

Posted at 5:45 PM on March 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Weekend Aurora Update:

The latest from spaceweather.com

INCOMING CME: "A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%."

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE:
"Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however."

**originally posted 4pm Friday**

Auroras reports from Duluth, St. Cloud, Pine City & northern metro locations early Friday!

2nd Solar Storm headed Earthward this weekend

Huge Sunspot #1429 triggering frequent Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's)

66 degrees - record high at MSP Airport Saturday!

59 previous record high in the metro Saturday, we broke it

Rain likely Sunday PM - evening

60s again next week - feeling more like late April

70 possible next Friday?

Rainy, thundery & mild May-like St. Patty's Day Weekend?

Aurora Sightings:

It was a good early morning Friday for sky watchers in central and northern Minnesota! Northern lights were visible in several locations. The displays were very low to the horizon, so you really needed a clear, dark spot with good visibility to the north.

I spoke Friday afternoon with storm chaser & photographer Doug Keisling who shot the excellent video below. He said the light show was vibrant and did shoot overhead at times, but the bright moon limited what his cameras could pick up.

Here are some more photos via spaceweather.com.

Ben Chorn Mar. 8, 2012 Duluth, Minnesota, USA

Details:

The best I have ever seen! They flickered and moved like none I had seen before. Definitely worth getting frostbite again. Sony A230, 30 sec exposure, f/5, 200 ISO

Bob Conzemius Mar. 9, 2012 Bovey, Minnesota, USA

Details:

This was a wonderful display with a whole variety of lights. Everything, from the steady, green band to the pulsating lights, was seen tonight. I'll be putting the pictures into a video later. Canon 5d Mk II, f1.4 24mm lens and f2.8 16-35mm lens. Exposures ranged from f4.0 to f1.4, ISO 1600 to ISO 400.

Friedrich Deters Mar. 9, 2012 Spring Lake Park, Minnesota

Details:

I noticed them start after 5:00am. They looked great even from the Twin Cities.

2nd CME blast headed Earthward this weekend!

Forecasting the appearance, strength and timing of northern lights is an art at best, but there may be more dispays in Minnesota this weekend.

Active Sunspot #1429 unleashed another earth-directed CME Friday, forecast to strike earth around midnight Saturday night/Sunday AM.

The M-6 class CME is supposedly weaker than the previous X class flare, but from the looks of the NOAA animation of the CME wave this one looks like a direct hit in earth, and not a glancing blow.

Skies should be clear in most of Minnesota Saturday night, with rain moving in Sunday night, so it looks like after midnight Saturday night until sunrise Sunday morning is your best shot to see the aurora this weekend.

Good luck and happy hunting!

Sunday Rain:

A low pressure system spins up from the south by Sunday afternoon. Look for rain showers to increase Sunday late PM & evening.

The "April Showers" in March look to be light to moderate with rainfall totals generally between .20" and .40" possible by Monday morning.

Like April & May next week!

Next week should feature the best stretch of weather since late last fall. Highs should be in the 60s most days, with a shot at 70 by late week.

Temps will run a good 20 degrees above average for most of the week. What little snow we have in the west & north metro will be long gone by next week. Could we see the first green shoots by next Friday?

St. Patty's Day in May this year??

Next weekend will have the look and feel of May in Minnesota! A persistent southerly flow will keep things mild. Moisture form the Gulf of Mexico will stream north...and that means a wet and potentially thundery weekend!

We could see our first widespread bouts of thunderstorms roaming across Minnesota...and potentially our first severe storms.

We'll see, it's still early..but something I'll be watching next week.

Spring Forward!

Don't forget to set the clocks ahead Saturday night!

Sunset time on Sunday is 7:15pm!

Have a great weekend!

PH

Brief wintery rerun today; New signs point to a warm spring ahead!

Posted at 8:45 AM on March 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

60 degrees at MSP Airport Tuesday!

+24 degrees vs. average

+2.2 degrees vs. average so far in March

10th straight month warmer than average in Minnesota?

Cold front today brings falling temps

Rain and snow showers today behind the front

60s return this weekend?

Warm spring ahead?

Cold Front today!

Our April flirtation is history, at least for a couple of days.

A cold front is sliding southeast today, and temps are dropping behind the front. Look for scattered rain and snow showers as temps fall today back into the 30s in most areas by later today.

Signs of a warm (and wet) spring?

Many signs point to a warm and potentially wet spring for Minnesota. That could be just what the doctor ordered for easing the drought which developed rapidly last fall.

Here are a few of the meteorological tea leaves that point to a mild, potentially wet spring.

1) Mild March looks almost certain now.

There's every reason to believe the mild forecasts will pan out for March at this point. Looking at the maps, it's as if something is "broken" compared to what we would usually expect in March in Minnesota. The jet stream is well north into Canada, when it is usually howling overhead this time of year delivering one snow storm after another.

Tuesday's and today's above average warmth means we're already running a good +2 degrees vs. average in the metro so far in March.

The overall weather pattern for the next 16 days looks unseasonably mild. The GFS for example is cranking out temps roughly +15 degrees vs. average overall the next two weeks. Medium range forecast models may have difficulty with pinpointing individual storms a week or two out, but they're usually much better with overall temperatures trends.

GFS Model cranks out unseasonably mild temps and rainfall the next 16 days!

It looks like March will be the 10th straight month above average in Minnesota, dating back to last June.

2) The relative lack of snow cover now in southern Minnesota, and the shrinking snow pack up north increase the odds of a warm month.

We melted 2"+ of snow Tuesday in Minnesota. All signs say the melt will resume/continue by this weekend.

Without snow, nearly all of the sun's energy goes into warming the air instead of meting snow. Any southerly winds can readily blow in warmer air from Iowa and southern Minnesota now.

That means temps can run a good 10-15 degrees warmer over bare ground than on dwindling snow covered areas.

3) Climate "drivers" favor a milder spring.

Assuming a mild March, we're 1/3 of the way toward a mild "meteorological spring."
(Mar-May)

Several factors point to odds of a milder spring than last year in Minnesota.

-Fading La Nina: Last spring featured a strong La Nina which can favor cooler spring in Minnesota. This year La Nina is fading/gone.

More red and less blue means warming Pacific ocean temps

-AO still positive: The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation gave us a mild winter. It appears it may linger overall this spring.

-NOAA outlooks favor a warm spring for Minnesota and the eastern USA.

A warm dry spring in Minnesota would be bad news for Minnesota's drought. At least in March, jet stream pattern seem to favor higher than average rainfall, and that could mean several rainy/thundery episodes this month and potentially this spring.

The GFS is still hinting now (for several runs) at rainfall exceeding 2" for much of southern Minnesota in the next 16 days.

That would be a good start to washing snow cover and rainfall runoff into our woefully low lakes and rivers this spring.

Let's see what unfolds this spring, but tat this point...it looks like an early and warm spring in Minnesota this year!

PH

Winterlike weekend, followed by a taste of spring

Posted at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Springtime, Tornadoes, Winter 2011-12

We are closing out the books on one of the warmest meteorological winters on record. For the months of December, January and February the Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls was nine degrees warmer than the new normal.

International Falls tallied three days of 20 below zero or colder for overnight minimums. Their coldest morning was 25 below zero on January 19th. That's also the coldest morning experienced in the Twin Cities when the mercury dropped to minus 11 at the International Airport.

On only two days during the winter did the temperature fail to climb above zero in International Falls. *there are two days in February when temperatures were not recorded. The high of 46 degrees on January 5th in the Falls broke the old record of 36 degrees set in 1984.

In the Twin Cities there were no recorded days of below zero in December or February at the big Airport.

Here's a statement from the NWS Grand Forks Office..... Based on the early information the meteorological winter months of December 2011 through February 2012 was the warmest for the Fargo Area, and in the top ten for the Grand Forks Area.

Snowfall has been sparse in the northern end of the Red River Valley. That's good news for the spring flood threat.

From the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the snow depth as of Thursday morning.

This morning Grand Forks reported a snow depth of 5 inches with 7 inches on the ground at Fargo. Another inch or two of snow is possible in the Red River Valley in the next couple of days.

An area of snow was beginning to show up on radar in southwest Minnesota late this afternoon.

Here's a snapshot from 415pm. Some of the snow may not have been reaching the ground.

Checking out the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, the snow is likely to continue to expand and move northeast this evening. A fresh coating of around an inch of snow is possible in the metro.

HRRR simulated radar for 9pm.

After seasonal temperatures this weekend, the models are continuing to trend towards a significant moderation. Looking out to the eight to fourteen day forecast there is high confidence in above normal temperatures as posted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center;

I've been reading the stories about the nighttime tornadoes that struck Missiouri and Illinois earlier this week. The EF4 tornado that devasted Harrisburg, Illinois touched down shortly before 5am, under the cover of darkness.

One of the comments listed that an emergency official heard the outdoor siren was able to move quickly to shelter. People need to have an indoor weather alert radio. Do me a favor and get one for your home this season.

Another threat of dangerous storms is in the weather picture for the Ohio Valley on Friday. Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather potential as they see it this afternoon for Friday afternoon.

Enjoy the snow this weekend. The melt begins Monday. Highs well into the 40s next week. Some readings approaching 60 degrees are possible in southwest Minnesota.
CE

Long range outlooks, a roll of the dice

Posted at 6:10 AM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Climate, Winter, Winter 2011-12

We kept waiting for the other boot to drop and an old fashion Minnesota winter to beat us down. Here we are on the first day of meteorological spring and the outlook calls for rather mild conditions to continue in our neck of the woods.

NOAA's Winter Outlook released November 2011 indicated a fairly high confidence level of colder than normal temperatures. NOAA's winter outlook was similar to that made by others, including the Farmers Almanac.

Top Ten Warmest Meteorological Winters for the Twin Cities.

Rank Year Average Temperature (F)

1 1877-1878 29.0

2 1930-1931 26.9

3 2001-2002 26.8

4 2011-2012 26.2
5 1997-1998 25.9

6 1986-1987 25.8

7 1982-1983 24.0

8 1991-1992 23.5

9 1943-1944 23.5

10 1920-1921 23.2

Snowstorm totals provided by the National Weather Service Duluth, Whiteout conditions hammered Duluth to Silver Bay on Wednesday.

A daily record of 9.7 inches of snow was measured at Duluth on February 29th. The peak wind gust was 56 mph.

Check out the snowfall reports for central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin at the Chanhassen NWS web link.

Much needed moisture fell with this major storm. Here's a graphic of the cooperative observers reports. Precipitation in northeast Minnesota occurred after these observations were posted on Wednesday.

There was a phrase used in the weather lab that was often quoted when looking ahead, "the trend is your friend." Here's a look at NOAA's temperature outlook for March, favoring above normal tempratures. First order of business is to start the snow melt.

But in the meantime, get out this weekend and knock yourself out with playing in the snow. Temperatures should be seasonal. No big snows are see for Minnesota the next couple of days.

Have you heard about the warm-up coming? See this temperature forecast from the GFS model for Tuesday afternoon.

CE

Duluth blizzard rages; Wettest storm since Aug; 50s - even 60 next 2 weeks?

Posted at 4:57 PM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

17" so far at Sawyer southwest of Duluth near Cloquet

Blizzard rages in Duluth gradually easing overnight

Rising rivers due to heavy rain and snowmelt

Major warming trend next week

50s and (even 60s) possible in the next 2 weeks?

Ground Zero Duluth:

The brunt of the storm shifted to Duluth Wednesday.

Blizzard conditions hammered the area all day, with wind gusts recorded in excess of 50 mph most of the day.

Snowfall totals exceed 10" in many areas near Duluth and northwest Wisconsin.

Blizzard to near blizzard conditions will gradually ease overnight, but travel is going to be very difficult into early Thursday.

More than a foot of snow:

The storm produced more than a foot of snow in many locations. Overall the heaviest snow band ran from Alexandra to Rush/Pine City along I-35 north to near Duluth and east into northwest Wisconsin.

Butternut in Ashland County has recorded an amazing 19" of snow so far!

Here is a list of snow fall totals from Duluth and Twin Cities NWS offices.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FEBRUARY 28-29TH WINTER STORM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.90 13 NNE BRUCE WI RUSK 0840 AM
13.50 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM
13.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 0142 PM
13.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0826 AM
12.50 4 S ISLAND LAKE WI CHIPPEWA 0812 AM
12.00 CHETEK WI BARRON 0953 AM
12.00 1 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0915 AM
12 INCHES ESTIMATED...STILL SOME FALLING
LIGHT SNOW
12.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0811 AM
12.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0721 AM
12.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0720 AM
12.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0414 AM
APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT OF SNOW SO FAR.
11.50 MILLERVILLE MN DOUGLAS 1122 AM
11.50 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
10.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1250 PM
10.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1236 PM
10.50 MORA MN KANABEC 1006 AM
10.40 CHETEK WI BARRON 0621 AM
10.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0215 PM
10.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 1101 AM
10.00 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM
9.80 3 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0742 AM
9.70 COLFAX WI DUNN 0600 AM
9.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1115 AM
9.40 8 NW MORA MN KANABEC 1214 PM
9.00 WHEELER WI DUNN 0146 PM
9.00 4 W CORNELL WI CHIPPEWA 0925 AM
9.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0845 AM
9.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0835 AM
9.00 10 N CENTER CITY MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
8.80 5 E CLAYTON WI BARRON 1043 AM
MEASURED OFF THE TOP OF THE CAR...
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0201 PM
8.00 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0920 AM
8 INCHES OF SNOW...0.75 INCHES OF RAIN PRIOR
TO THE SNOWFALL
8.00 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0908 AM
8.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0908 AM
8.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0835 AM
8.00 SARTELL MN STEARNS 0700 AM
7.90 CHIPPEWA FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0742 AM
7.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE PRISON.
7.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0812 AM
7.80 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0726 AM
7.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0812 AM
7.50 FALL CREEK WI EAU CLAIRE 0742 AM
7.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1215 PM
7.20 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 1111 AM
7.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 1232 PM
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT 0.65 INCHES.
7.00 LORETTO MN HENNEPIN 1214 PM
7.00 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0835 AM
7.00 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0835 AM
7.00 OSCEOLA WI POLK 0834 AM
7.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0453 AM
7.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0416 AM
6.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0749 AM
6.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0652 AM
6.50 1 N LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
6.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0547 AM
6.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0503 AM
6.20 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
6.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1122 AM
WATER EQUIVALENT OF .96 INCHES.
6.00 2 N GILMAN MN BENTON 1043 AM
6.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0628 AM
6.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0545 AM
5.60 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
5.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0610 AM
5.50 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0514 AM
5.30 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0517 AM
5.00 BLAINE MN ANOKA 1101 AM
5.00 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0520 AM
4.80 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0743 AM
4.70 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0439 AM
4.50 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 1101 AM
4.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0541 AM
4.40 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0250 PM
4.40 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0639 AM
4.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
4.30 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0835 AM
4.20 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0908 AM
4.10 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1214 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0630 AM
4.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1015 AM
1.7 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT.
4.00 ST CROIX FALLS WI POLK 0835 AM
4.00 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.70 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0617 AM
3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0600 AM
3.40 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0835 AM
3.10 5 NW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
3.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 1031 AM
1.28 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
3.00 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0930 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0417 AM
2.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1215 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.
2.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0910 AM
2.70 2 NE MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0720 AM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0730 AM
2.30 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0835 AM
2.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0139 PM
1.70 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0500 AM
1.60 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
1.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1031 AM
1.20 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0835 AM
1.00 JORDAN MN SCOTT 0835 AM

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. THANK YOU FOR YOUR REPORTS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
19.00 3 N BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 1246 PM
17.00 9 NNE SAWYER MN ST. LOUIS 1200 PM
17.00 WINTER WI SAWYER 0839 AM
4 TO 6 FOOT DRIFTS.
16.50 13 SW MELLEN WI ASHLAND 1034 AM
MEASURED AT CLAM LAKE.
16.50 2 N FIFIELD WI PRICE 1012 AM
16.00 SARONA WI WASHBURN 1030 AM
16.00 4 SE PARK FALLS WI PRICE 0900 AM
15.50 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0731 AM
15.00 BENOIT WI BAYFIELD 1238 PM
15.00 IRON BELT WI IRON 0935 AM
14.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 1110 AM
7 INCHES SINCE 730 AM.
14.30 SHELL LAKE WI WASHBURN 1055 AM
14.00 1 N SPOONER WI WASHBURN 1200 PM
14.00 SHELL LAKE WI WASHBURN 1050 AM
14.00 3 SW GORDON WI DOUGLAS 1049 AM
14.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 1025 AM
13.00 5 N WEBSTER WI BURNETT 0900 AM
13.00 12 NE WEBSTER WI BURNETT 0853 AM
13.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0830 AM
12.30 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 1134 AM
12.00 MASON WI BAYFIELD 1220 PM
12.00 ASHLAND WI ASHLAND 1010 AM
8.1 INCHES SINCE 700 AM
12.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE 0941 AM
12.00 ASKOV MN PINE 0900 AM
VSBY LESS THAN QUARTER MILE
12.00 GLIDDEN WI ASHLAND 0853 AM
11.50 GILE WI IRON 1239 PM
11.00 MONTREAL WI IRON 0241 PM
10.50 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0147 PM
10.00 HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 0200 PM
10.00 11 N BRULE WI DOUGLAS 0120 PM
10.00 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0920 AM
10.00 PINE CITY MN PINE 0840 AM
9.40 SAXON WI IRON 0851 AM
9.00 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0255 PM
0.1 INCHES IN THE PREVIOUS ONE HOUR.
9.00 SAGINAW MN ST. LOUIS 0131 PM
9.00 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0116 PM
8.00 2 NE DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0231 PM
8.00 ESKO MN CARLTON 1257 PM
8.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS 1109 AM
7.70 12 N ISLE MN AITKIN 1232 PM
7.50 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0131 PM
7.50 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1218 PM
7.50 2 SSW POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 1025 AM
7.20 MOOSE LAKE WI DOUGLAS 0200 PM
7.00 BRAINERD MN CROW WING 1232 PM

Drought Buster?

Folks have asked if this is a drought busting storm. My answer is yes, and no.

The excessive rainfall and snowfall totals dumped 2" of liquid on a huge chunk of the southern 2/3 of Minnesota. That runoff (and recent storms) will help recharge rivers and lakes in Minnesota. So it will help abate, but not totally alleviate the "hydrologic" (rivers & lakes) part of the drought.

What it will not help much are the soils. With frozen ground not too much of this moisture will soak in. We need ample (even excessive) rain after the thaw to fully recharge drought stricken soils.

Next snow Friday?

After a quiet Thursday, there is a chance of light snow Friday in Minnesota. The system looks small compared to our mid-week blitz, but a couple of inches is a possibility Friday.

Major warm up next week?

The overall weather pattern looks much warmer starting next week.

A mild southwest flow looks to set up next week. That could boost temps significantly above average again. Once we melt off the snow, temps could soar into the 50s.

Looking ahead, it looks like an even warmer pattern may return after a brief cool down.

The GFS is cranking out temperatures in...the 60s by around March 10th-13th!

Let's see if that pattern holds up.

Stay tuned...and stay dry after our epic "Slopacolyypse!"

PH

Spotty snow metro & south: "Whiteout" hammers Duluth!

Posted at 9:37 AM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1.33"+ precip at MSP Airport

Wettest storm in 7+ months for metro and much of southern Minnesota

July 15th - last time we had this much rain at MSP (1.84")

2 feet rise at Minnesota River in Mankato last 24 hours

12"+ snowfall totals at Alex, Rush City & Rice Lake

1" to 4"+ totals in metro area

Whiteout! High winds & heavy snow hammering Duluth

No travel recommended along I-35 near Duluth

Whiteout at Duluth Harbor!

Call it the storm that keeps on giving!

Heavy snow is pounding Duluth and surrounding areas into northern Wisconsn today.

Duluth is getting hammered with 50+ mph winds, heavy snow and whiteout conditions.

The snow was late in getting to Duluth, but now 6" to 12"+ will come fast and hard with blizzard conditions.

MNDOT recommends no travel along I-35 near Duluth today.

Numerous 12"+ Snowfall totals now coming in:

The storm delivered the 1'+ snowfall as advertised. Here are some locations reporting at least a foot of snow.

-Alexandria 12"
-Pine City & Rush City 12"
-Hayward & Cumberland, WI 13"
-Rice Lake, WI 13.5"
-Bruce, WI 15.9"

-Latest snowfall summary here.

Wettest storm in 7+ months for metro!

The 1.33" (and counting) precip so far at MSP Airport is the most we've seen in over 7 months. The last time the metro and most of southern Minnesota had this much precip was July 15th when MSP recorded 1.84" in heavy rain!

Rivers Rising!

The runoff is gushing into area rivers.

Take a look at the MN River gauge at Mankato. The river has shot up nearly 2 feet in the past 24 hours!

The abundant rain and snow is great news for easing (but not ending) Minnesota's drought. Runoff from rain and snow will help boost river and lake levels, but won't help soils nearly as much because the ground is still frozen and can't absorb the runoff.

We'll still need ample rainfall after the thaw next month to recharge soils.

Power outages:

The weight of the ice and snow on trees and power lines has caused as many as 21,000 homes & businesses to be without power today according to Xcel Energy.

I am concerned about more outages as winds increase today.

You can track outages here.

Metro snowfall 1" (east) to 4"+(west)

The quick snow burst this morning came just in time for AM rush. here's a map of totals in the metro today.

Tornadoes too!

The southern end of our powerful spring-like storm spawned several tornadoes. At least 4 are dead, and Nebraska recorded the first tornado in February history Tuesday!

PH

AM rush snow fest: Heavy wet snow eases from south this morning

Posted at 7:04 AM on February 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1" to 4" snowfall already in the metro this morning!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0414 AM
11.50 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0700 AM
10.40 CHETEK WI BARRON 0621 AM
9.70 COLFAX WI DUNN 0600 AM
8.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0450 AM
7.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
7.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0453 AM
7.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0416 AM
6.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0652 AM
6.50 1 N LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
6.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0547 AM
6.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0503 AM
6.20 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0702 AM
6.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
6.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0628 AM
6.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0545 AM
5.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0610 AM
5.50 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0500 AM
5.30 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0517 AM
5.00 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0520 AM
4.70 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0439 AM
4.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
4.50 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0541 AM
4.40 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0639 AM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0630 AM
4.00 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.90 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
3.70 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0617 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0417 AM
2.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM

Snow fading from south to north this morning in metro

Snow totals so far:

6"+ for Little Falls, Isanti & Delano

8" for Mora

12" in Alexandria!

Heavy snow continues from the metro north & west

Snow fades south metro and south/east

Icy/snowy scene along I-394 in west metro this morning!

-Latest snow totals here

-Latest Twin Cities radar

19,000 homes without power as of 7:30am

The storm that keeps on giving!

The changeover to snow occurred as expected overnight. Heavy snow bursts dropped visibilities and laid down a quick 2" to 4" in the metro.

Expect snow to taper from the south in the Twin Cities for a while this morning, whil the storm rages north and west of the metro.

As you would expect, travel is very difficult from the metro north & west.

Plan plenty of extra time today!

PH

Storm Phase 3: Metro change to snowy AM rush; Heavy snow north

Posted at 10:22 PM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Warnings continue Wednesday for most of central Minnesota

Heavy snow totals for western & central MN

Transition to snow for metro by Wednesday AM rush

Slick AM rush for the metro Wednesday!

1" to 3" snow likely for metro Wednesday on colder "backside" of system

Higher totals possible in the north metro?

Snow-rain-ice-sleet Just another day at the Weather Lab Tuesday!

Signs of spring: A shot at 50 next week & weekend?

3 Phase Storm System:

This turned to be a 3-phase system for the metro and much of southern Minnesota. With the exception of more ice than I expected Tuesday evening, phases 1 and 2 behaved about as I expected.

Phase 1: AM snow moved in

The first wave of the storm brought a shot of AM/Midday snow to the area. Totals were well under an inch in most areas.

Light AM snowfall with rain "dents" in the afternoon

Phase 2: Transition to rain

The second phase of the storm brought warmer air and a heavy mix of precip to Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It was mostly rain for the metro by later Tuesday as expected...some of it heavy.

A wet rainy weather lab driveway late Tuesday PM

"Icepacolypse!"

Temps hovered close to freezing, and objects that had been chilled to sub-freezing by Monday night's cold remained cold enough for rain to freeze on contact.

Most of the models projected temps between 34 and 37 by late Tuesday. Instead they hovered between 31 and 34 in most of southern Minnesota including the metro. That's good enough for ice...and that's what we got.

Ice thickness from 1/4 up to 1/2 inch were observed at the weather lab in the west metro and in Highland Park.

Winter anticipates spring? Ice over lilac buds in Highland park Tuesday night. (Photo by Bill Stein)

4 precip types in one day!

It's not often we get 4 precip types in one day, but that's what I saw at the weather lab Tuesday.

-First light AM snow, then some brief bigger flakes after noon.
-Then rain late PM...some heavy
-Then freezing rain and an icy coating on everything
-Then sleet Tuesday night

What's next...locusts?

Now: Phase 3

As the center of low pressure moves by early Wednesday, cooler air will get yanked in behind the storm.

Look for mixed precip to change back to all snow between 3am and 6am in the metro.

We could see a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow early Wednesday, and some quick 1" to 3" totals...wait for it....just in time for AM rush!

With the low tracking a little further south, the north metro could see some higher snowfall totals.

I still expect t see some 6" to 12"+ totals come in from Alex, St. Cloud, to Hinckley to near Duluth.

Snow should taper to flurries as the day wears on...but winds will howl from the northwest and gust over 30 mph in open areas.

Stay safe and enjoy the rest of the storm!

PH

Tracking: Metro icy mixed precip & rain; Possible Ice Storm?

Posted at 7:13 PM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Update 7:15pm:

Ice storm in progress. Only question now is how bad?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS.

Ice coated trees and power lines in Highland Park. (Photo by Bill Stein)

Update 6:30pm:

With temps hovering around 32 in metro I'm getting more concerned about a possible full blown "ice storm" tonight.

Icy coating on trees and power lines in the west metro Tuesday evening.

Temps upstream in southern Minnesota are around 34 in some locations. If we squeak another degree or two tonight it's no big deal. If it holds at 32, expect significant icing tonight.

There is the potential that some areas could see significant ice accumulation on trees and power lines causing power outages.

It will not surprise me to see ice storm warnings issued if temps do not budge.

Stay tuned...and watch for ice tonight!

PH

Mixed rain/snow/ice on radar with temps hovering near freezing Tuesday evening.

Rain drops make dents in leftover light AM snow coating at weather lab Tuesday PM.

***posted 5:13pm CST***

Waves of mixed precip tonight from metro south
(mix as far north as St. Cloud?)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Mostly snow along and north of an Alex-Brainerd-Duluth line

Heavy wet snow of 7" to 15"+ from Alex/Fergus Falls to Brainerd & Duluth

Ice accumulations in some areas tonight

Metro mix tonight changes back to all snow by 4am?

1" to 3" totals likely for most of metro early Wednesday morning

3"+ possible in the north metro Wednesday morning

Subtle changes (temp & track) may mean more Metro snow Wednesday

Wet & rainy MNDOT Traffic Cam and freeways Tuesday afternoon. (I-394/494)

System Overview: Still on track, with subtle (but important?) forecast changes

Our well advertised weathermaker has arrived and is behaving mostly as expected so far. There are however a few subtle, but potentially important changes that are worth noting.

Let's focus on the possible changes.

1) The warm air still looks to push north with the system well into the metro causing a change to a mix/sleet/ice to rain situation overnight. The 18Z model runs (and surface observations) suggest the push may not be quite as strong as earlier suggested.

-This could mean more icing from liquid precip tonight with locations that don't climb above freezing vs. those that can achieve at least 33 degrees.

***I am now a bit more concerned about icing in southern Minnesota and the metro. If temps hover near freezing, rain may freeze on contact and cause significant ice storm conditions! There could be significant ice coating on trees and power lines tonight!***

2) The NAM & GFS 18Z tracks are ever so slightly south of the previous runs...but still a good 100 miles north of where it was 48 hours ago.

-This may mean a more rapid changeover to snow on the system's colder "backside" around 4am for the metro, when sufficient moisture lingers to pump out a period of heavy wet snow before the system pulls out later Wednesday.

There is also the potential that the northern metro could see more than 3" Wednesday...with totals increasing rapidly to 5" to 10" as you move along I-94 toward St. Cloud.

The height of the storm!

The main body of precipitation is moving through tonight. The height of the storms ability to generate heavy precip through intense lift or "upward vertical velocity" (UVV) peaks between 6pm and 6am Wednesday.

Radar shows main precip shield moving north late Tuesday PM.

This the period where snowfall and rainfall intensities will peak. Expect bursts of heavy snow/sleet/icing/rain depending on how far north you are overnight.

NWS trims advisories:

Reflecting the northward track shifts, Twin Cities NWS has trimmed back advisories to the north.

Winter Storm Warnings have been cancelled for the central and southern Metro, replaced by winter weather advisories.

Bottom Line:

Stay tuned as the mix of ice/rain/snow evolves overnight. Expect winter travel conditions especially north & west of the Twin Cities metro!

PH

Update: Snow/sleet to rain today for metro; Heavy snow north!

Posted at 11:39 AM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (8 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Noon Update:

Next wave of mostly snow/sleet moves through metro early PM. Warm air should change precip over toward rain between 3pm and 6pm, but we could see a shot of snow & sleet until then.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

1st waves of snow & mixed precip arrive in Minnesota

Warm air pushing north today & tonight

Morning model runs still strongly support change to all rain for metro by this evening

Snow coverage & intensity increasing today in central Minnesota

7" to 15"+ snowfall possible from Alex to Brainerd & Duluth!

Up to 1" of rainfall for metro later today & tonight?

Localized ponding & street flooding from rain (and snow melt) tonight in metro?

Morning Models: Still on track

Look for mainly light and scattered snow & mixed early, with coverage and intensity increasing this afternoon and evening as the core of the storm approaches.

The morning (12Z) NAM and other models still confirm several key aspects of today's developing storm.

1) The heaviest snow band still appears to lay out from Alex/Fergus Falls to Brainerd to Duluth. A general area of 7" to 15" looks likely here, with some 18"+ totals possible...especially near Duluth and along the North Shore.

2) The so called "freezing line" in the lowest mile of the atmosphere shifts well north of the Twin Cities tonight according to the models. The morning NAM model run lifts the freezing line at 5,000 feet above ground level (850millibars) north of St. Cloud by 10pm tonight.

This should virtually assure a change to all rain for the metro for several hours, most likely between 6pm tonight and 4am Wednesday. This will coincide with the peak of the storm's precip intensity, meaning most of the precip should fall as rain in the metro.

The 12Z (morning) NAM is cranking out 1.67" of precip for the metro with this storm. It appears most of that will fall as rain later today and tonight.

With surface temps above freezing (as high as 37 degrees?) this should mean a very wet night with rain and rain-induced snowmelt triggering some big time puddles from the metro south.

There could even be a few rare February thunderstorms tonight in the metro and southern Minnesota!

As the low moves by tomorrow morning, colder air will funnel in, changing rain back to snow in the metro. It still looks like the metro could pick up 1" to 2"+ of snowfall on the backside of the system Wednesday.

Snowfall amounts will increase in the northwest metro (up to 3"?) and then soar as you head toward St. Cloud on I-94 where 5" to 10" may fall. The heaviest snow bands may produce over a foot...from Brainerd to Duluth!

Stay tuned for updates as the system unfolds this afternoon and tonight!

PH

Quick shot of AM snow; Transition to sleet & rain this PM metro

Posted at 7:03 AM on February 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

AM rush Nowcast:

Overnight model runs still support earlier post highlighting the change to sleet & rain this afternoon in the metro with temps above freezing.

1st wave of light snow ahead of the system may give us a quick coating to 1" this morning, and create some slick roads in the process.

Stay tuned as we track 1st snowfall with the system this morning, and the likely metro shift to mixed precip.

PH

Still On Track: Mostly rain metro; Heavy snow north; 50s by Monday??

Posted at 10:16 PM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

1.1" NAM model precipitation output for MSP Tuesday & Wednesday
(mostly falling as rain!)

0.7" NAM snowfall output for MSP

7" to 15"+ snowfall likely from Alex to Brainerd and Duluth!

Northern track confirmed on Monday evening model runs

Winter Storm Warnings in effect for much of central Minnesota

Blizzard Warnings for western Minnesota

Still On Track:

The Monday night models confirm my earlier thinking today about the track of Tuesday's storm. It looks like yet another case of a near miss for snowfall in the metro this "winter."

Meanwhile this storm will be serious business from the eastern Dakotas right through central Minnesota to Duluth. Heavy snowfall totals and wind will make for difficult travel in much of the region. Sustained winds of 35 mph may create blizzard conditions from near Morris to along I-94 near Alexandria Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Heavy snow band stays north:

Snowfall totals and coverage still look similar to my earlier posts today, meaning the heaviest snow will fall from Morris to Alex, near and north of St Cloud, through Brainerd to Duluth.

A cool foot could pile up in these areas by late Wednesday.

Metro leans mostly rain: Some "backside" snow?

If anything the evening NAM nudged the system slightly further north/west. That means the warm air may get here about the same time as the precip.

It appears snow or a mix could move into the metro by morning or early afternoon Tuesday, and quickly change to mostly rain. The NAM model raises temps to 33 degrees by 11 am Tuesday, then to 38 by 3-4pm at MSP Airport...and keeps temps above freezing through Tuesday night.

That should mean rain... and mostly wet streets for the greater Twin Cities during most of this event.

We may pick up a quick coating of snow before the changeover early Tuesday, and another shot of snow from the backside "wrap around" Wednesday in the colder air behind the system. I now expect mostly rain with this system...but the metro could pick up 1" to 2" on the systems back side Wednesday.

February rain storm?

One of the more interesting facets of this system is the amount of rainfall that the storm may dump on the metro and areas of southern Minnesota.

Various model runs have been cranking out 1" to 2" of liquid precip with the storm. Monday night's NAM trimmed this to 1.1" for the metro.

GFS model: Up to 2" of rain for metro??

If we get an inch (or two?!) of rain and 38 degrees on top of the .5" water content snow cover from last Monday's metro storm, there's going to be rapid runoff and water in the streets by later Thursday.

Look for some big puddles and the potential for rare February local street flooding from the metro south by Tuesday PM rush and especially Tuesday evening & overnight!

Oh yeah, and there may be enough "lift" to generate some thunder later Tuesday and Tuesday night!

To top it off, the GFS is hitning at a major warm surge Sunday & Monday. Temps may push into the 50s by Monday!

The Grateful Dead might have said it best about this "winter" in Minnesota. "What a long, strange trip it's been!

PH

Storm Shifts North: Metro "Slop Storm"? St. Cloud & Duluth heavy snow!

Posted at 5:18 PM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Warnings kick in Tuesday

Blizzard Warnings for western MN & eastern Dakotas

Storm track shifts north - again!

Heavy snow band from Wheaton-Morris-Alex-St. Cloud-Brainerd-Duluth (8" to 16" possible!)

Mixed precip types looking more likely for the metro

Starting as snow in the metro Tuesday AM - mix to all rain PM/evening?

Heavy rain possible (Up to 1"+?) Tuesday evening from the metro south!

Localized street ponding & flooding Tuesday night in the metro and south

Good news for easing MN drought regardless of eventual precip types!

Northward Shift Holds:

**That's the main headline as we head into Monday evening. The northward shift I talked about in this morning's model runs has held firm in the PM (18Z) model updates.**

Local NWS offices have acknowledged the northward model shift, but are (understandably) reluctant to let the notion of heavy snowfall go for the greater Twin Cities...even as the Duluth office has expanded winter storm warnings northward to account for the northern track shift.

Here at the Weather Lab I'm leaning more towards a "snow sandwich" for the metro. Precip begins as snow Tuesday AM...changes to a mix Tuesday PM then all ran by Tuesday evening. It may go back to all snow by around 3am Wednesday, but by then a dry slot could shut off heavy precip, keeping snow totals down.

NWS seems to be betting on some "dynamic forcing" with intense precip rates that could keep precip mostly snow in the metro...and that could happen. But right now I'm just seeing too strong of a push of warm air above freezing in the lowest mile of the atmosphere to be overcome by drawing down colder air form aloft.

Honestly, I'm a little freaked out that NWS has not gone stronger toward the mostly rain solution fore the metro. Like they say in those PGA golf promos; "Those guys (and gals) are good."

I'm going to be looking again hard at my forecast tonight before the snow flies to see if there is a trend toward keeping mostly snow in the forecast for the metro. Right now I appear to be the outlier on the low side of snow forecast totals, leaning more toward mostly rain.

Time will tell.

Here the latest breakdown of the system pending tonight's final model runs before the snow starts to fly!

Track:

The system has shifted track again to the north, supporting Monday AM model trends. 24 hours ago some models tracked the surface low through northern Iowa. Now the GFS and NAM agree on a track from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities.

Timing:

Expect snow to break out after midnight tonight in southwestern Minnesota and work east. The GFS brings snow into the metro by sunrise, the NAM holds off until later Tuesday AM.

Precip type:

It looks like all snow at the onset of this event. Snow will begin to pile up early Tuesday morning in western and central Minnesota and continue all day.

In the metro, snow should begin in the morning and stay all snow until afternoon.

By Tuesday 2-4PM there should be a changeover from snow to mixed precip (sleet?) from the metro south... and then a gradual change to all rain later in the afternoon.

Heavy rainfall?

There are indications that the heaviest precip may fall as rain from the Twin Cities south at the height of the storm Tuesday night.

The NAM is cranking out as much as 1.5" of rain in the metro and south along I-35 Tuesday night!

If that happens, there will likely be localized street flooding and ponding of water from rain & snow melt in the metro and south Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals:

As you would expect, the northern track shifts the heaviest snow band to the north.

Right now it looks very likely that the heaviest snow band (all snow for the duration of the event) will run from west central Minnesota (Browns Valley, Wheaton Ortonville & Morris) through central Minnesota (Alex, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs, Mora) into north central Minnesota (Brainerd, Hinckley, and Duluth.)

In these areas anywhere from 6" to 12"+ is likely, with some totals possibly up to or exceeding 18"!

NAM confirms northward snow trend.

In the metro I am expecting a shot of 1" to 3" of snow Tuesday morning before the changeover to sleet/rain. We may pick up another inch or so on the back side of the system Wednesday.

Overall I would say a range of 1" to 4" looks likely for the metro, with the best chance of 4" in the northwest metro. (Anoka, Maple Grove, Buffalo) Snowfall totals should increase accordingly as you move up I-94 towards St. Cloud, where a foot of snow is quite possible.

If the warm air push is not as strong, or the track jogs south again in tonight's model runs I may have to increase snowfall totals for the metro.

Needless to say, stay tuned to see what tonight's model runs do as things can still change!

Next update by around 11pm tonight!

PH

Winter (Slop?) Storm: Major uncertainties linger for metro precip type

Posted at 8:39 AM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Northward track shift in Monday AM model runs

Reduced snowfall output for Twin Cities from major models

Snow bull's eye shifting north now favoring central Minnesota

Winter storm/blizzard watches & warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday

Major uncertainties still for metro precip types

Precip starts as snow then trending toward mostly rain Tuesday PM/evening for the metro?

-Major 2" "rain event" possible for metro and southern Minnesota with localized street flooding??

Here we go again!

Let me say from the outset, this is going to be one tough storm to forecast for the Twin Cities metro.

It looks more likely today that central Minnesota is in line to pick up heavy snowfall with a widespread area of 6" to 12" including Wheaton, Morris, Alex, St. Cloud, Mill Lacs, Mora and Siren, WI.

Monday AM model trends suggest the Twin Cities is on the razor's edge of rain/ice/snow with the coming winter storm Tuesday & Wednesday.

Take a look at how the forecast models have crashed on metro snowfall output between Sunday PM and Monday morning. The NAM model plunged from 17.4" (Sunday 0Z run) in the metro to 1.5" by Monday morning!

The reason? A northward shift in storm track. The new tracks allow warm air to surge north. If that scenario verifies, snow will change to rain during the height of the storm, and much of the precip could fall as rain instead of snow in the metro!

12Z (Monday morning) NAM model brings 850mb freezing line north of the metro by Tuesday evening. This is often the "rain-snow" line.

Here are some trends in models early Monday.

-Trends suggest enough warm air may surge north to change precip to all rain in the metro by Tuesday PM/evening!

The change to all rain during the height of the storm would reduce snowfall totals significantly for the metro.

Bottom line?

-Latest trends indicate a more "northward" trend with the track of the storm.

-Warm air surging north may change precip to a mix of sleet/ice or even rain in the metro

-Latest trends push heavy snow band (6" to 12"+) north & west of the metro

-Latest metro snowfall trends support lesser snowfal and higher mixed sleet/rainfall totals

-It looks like mostly rain with little snow accumulation along the eastern I-90 corridor (Albert Lea Rochester & La Crosse)

-Either scenario favors heavy precip totals over 1" of liquid Tuesday & Wednesday

Stay tuned!

Brown snow up north??

There are reports of "brown snow" from Sunday's system in northern Minnesota. Apparently, wind borne soil particles from dry areas in the Dakotas may have fed into the system, creating some brownish tint to some of the snow.

Here are the details from Jay Austin of the Large Lakes Observatory.
(Thanks to Jay Austin & Dr. Mark Seeley for passing this along!)

Hi Paul,

jay-

PH

Next Winter Storm Takes Aim: Metro target this time?

Posted at 12:00 AM on February 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

13.5" snowfall in Silver Bay Sunday!

Heavy snowfall totals in northern Minnesota Sunday

Next storm takes aim at central/southern Minnesota Tuesday-Wednesday

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches/Warnings for Minnesota

Heavy snowfall likely for much of central Minnesota including metro!

Mixed sleet/ice/rain for southern Minnesota (significant icing possible)

1" to 2" liquid precip content by Wednesday PM?

6" to 12" widespread snowfall totals likely, with 1'+ totals possible

Next system taking shape:

It was 1 week ago that our weather pattern shifted into "active" mode. Since then 3 separate storm systems have clipped parts of Minnesota with snow.

We focused on northern Minnesota Sunday, now it looks like central and southern Minnesota, and greater Twin Cities Metro, are under the "Bull's Eye" this time.

System #4 is taking aim Tuesday & Wednesday, and it looks like a duzy.

We're still a good 24 hours away from the main body of the storm so the track may still change, but this could likely be the biggest snowfall this winter in the metro and much of central Minnesota.

Let's break down the system as it looks heading into early Monday.

The System:

A classic "Colorado Low" pressure system forming on the lee side of the Rockies in Colorado Monday. Colorado Lows tend to produce heavy snowfall totals for Minnesota, and can trigger lighting and thunder.

The Track:

There are still some slight (but important) differences in track forecasts for the low pressure center.

The 0Z NAM tracks the surface low from Sioux City, IA east through northern Iowa Tuesday to La Crosse by early Wednesday.

This track would favor all snow for the metro and bring the snowfall "bull's eye" from Willmar through the Twin Cities.

The 0Z GFS favors a more northerly track along the I-90 corridor from Worthington to Rochester.

This track allows warmer air to mix into the metro, and could change snow over to a mix of sleet or ice for several hours Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. It may also allow some "dry slotting" to taper snow intensity early Wednesday. This would reduce snowfall totals in the metro and place the snow "bull's eye" north of the metro from Alexandria to St. Cloud and Mora and Siren, WI.

The European model favors the more northerly GFS track.

Timing:

The GFS is faster and brings snow into the metro by just after midnight early Tuesday morning. The NAM holds off until around 6am Tuesday.

Duration:

Most models end snowfall from west to east Wednesday PM. (around 3pm for the metro)

When you subtract out a period of mixed precip (midnight-6am Wednesday) and a potential "dry slot" the total duration of snowfall appears to likely be around 27 hours.

If snowfall rates average .5"/hour during the storm...that would be a good 13" of snowfall.

Precip Totals:

The models are cranking out about 1.5" of liquid precip for this event in the metro and central MN.

Some may fall as a mixed bag of ice/sleet/rain in and south of the metro. In areas that see all snow, that could produce 15" at a 10:1 snowfall:liquid ratio...which seems likely for this event.

Bigger picture...

Regardless of precip type (rain/ice/snow) that much precip will be a blessing for drought stricken areas in the storms path!

With current snow cover and the coming storm, that could be 2" of runoff for rivers & lakes this spring.

Snowfall Totals?

So the big question for many is..."How much will I have to shovel/drive through?"

Take a look at the differences from the late Sunday night model runs!

GFS model favors 6" to 12" in metro with higher totals north

NAM model favors snow "bull's eye" of 15" in the metro!

I still want to see Monday morning's model runs for any track shifts and see how much warm air surges north ahead of the system. But at this point here's what I expect from the weather lab.

-Widespread 6" to 12"+ snowfall totals from Alexandria through St. Cloud south into the Twin Cities metro by late Wednesday.

-There will be some 12"+ totals (as high as 18"?) somewhere between the metro and Alex-St. Cloud.

-There still is a chance for 12"+ totals in the metro, if the storm follows the NAM's "southern solution."

Wind & Blizzard Warnings!

Forget about snowfall totals for a minute. There will be enough snow and wind in western Minnesota to generate blizzard conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

Blizzard watches/warnings will fly and travel will be downright dangerous in much of central and western Minnesota.

Stay tuned as we get a look at Monday's early model runs, and batten down the hatches for the potential for heavy snow by Tuesday!

PH

Active: Sunday storm mostly north; Still watching "major" Tuesday potential

Posted at 11:40 PM on February 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter storm warnings out for northern Minnesota Sunday

5" to 10"+ possible for Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, International Falls, Iron Range, Ely & North Shore communities

Quick coating to 1" possible in the metro Sunday

Still watching "major" storm potential for Tuesday & Wednesday in much of Minnesota

What you need to know first: Sunday snow will be heavy "Up North"

The long advertised storm is still on track for northern Minnesota Sunday. Expect heavy snow and difficult travel along and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line Sunday.

The Twin Cities and central Minnesota will be on the southern edge of the storm, but still may pick up some accumulating snow early Sunday.

Watch for updated advisories and snowfall totals here Sunday:

-Red River Valley NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Twin Cities NWS

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Next storm Tuesday & Wednesday: Potentially "Major"

The active storm train over Minnesota continues, and I'm still keeping an eye on the next storm headed for Minnesota for Tuesday & Wednesday.

This one looks like it's coming father south, and could affect more of central Minnesota (and maybe the metro) with heavy snow and even rain in southern Minnesota.

GFS model paints (another) major winter storm Tuesday. Twin Cities on the rain/snow line?

With the poor (okay abysmal) model performance of the past two weeks it would be silly to start throwing out potential snowfall amounts yet. Suffice to say at this point that the storm could be major, with heavy totals Tuesday & Wednesday.

There are still several factors that could change this storm and severely impact snowfall totals.

-Shifting storm track (Where have we seen that movie before??)

-Warm air intrusion changing snow to rain in southern Minnesota (and maybe in the metro)

The models have been spitting out wildly varying snowfall totals with the system...literally from 4" to 25" for areas in and near the metro.

Let's see what Sunday's model runs do, and if we can get some consistency on track and thermal profile within the possible storm.

***Suffice to say at this point there is the potential for heavy snow in much of central Minnesota (and maybe the metro) Tuesday and Wednesday***

Stay tuned for updates, and prepare for snowy travel in northern Minnesota through Sunday night!

PH

Detour: Sunday snow shifts north again; Next (metro) chance Tuesday

Posted at 2:18 PM on February 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter storm watches & warnings for northern Minnesota this weekend

Sunday's system tracking even further north

3" - 6"+ best chance for Grand Forks, Bemidji, Iron Range cities, International Falls, Ely and North Shore.

4" to 9" snowfall from Thursday's clipper from South Dakota to Chicago (Just clipped far southwest Minnesota)

Tuesday & Wednesday next snow chance for Minnesota

Northern Minnesota: Winter Storm this weekend

The northward progression of the forecast models continues this weekend.

At least we have a storm to talk about, and this one is taking aim at the northern third of Minnesota.

Winter storm watches and warnings are flying, and snowfall should peak Sunday as the system moves through.

It looks like most of the accumulating snow will fall along and north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line. The best chance for 3" to 6"+ will be north of that....and there may be some 8"+ totals in the BWCA and the high country above the North Shore near Grand Marais.

NAM model snowfall lays out heaviest snow north!

Metro skunked?

It's a good news/bad news scenario for southern Minnesota and the metro this weekend. The northward shift in the storm track means little to no snow accumulation in southern Minnesota.

The good news? Travel conditions will be much better than expected earlier in the week.

The bad news? We realy need some additional snowfall. The extra moisture would have been available to help recharge river & lakes through runoff.

Maybe next time.

Unreliable forecast models?

It's been a tough week for weather forecasters, and shifting forecast models have been nearly useless at times.

First the clipper, which produced prolific snowfall totals from 4" to 9" from South Dakota to Chicago as it took a last second jog mostly south of Minnesota.

Thursday's clipper curved right around Minnesota!

Then there's the ever northward shift in the model tracks for Sunday's storm. That took the snowfall "bull's eye" from the metro all the way to the BWCA as the week progressed.

Last winter both the "Domebuster" (17.1") and the Presidents' Day Storm (13.8") we're well tracked by the models. We were able to give plenty of lead time...and track the systems fairly accurately several days in advance. The modles did a farily good (even great) job of handling the 5th and 15th biggest snowfall events in Twin Cities history!

This winter forecast models have been unreliable, with storm tracks shifting over 100 miles just before potential snowfall events.

It's not just that the tracks are changing this winter, we expect some of that. It's the way they are changing that seems especially random and more unpredictable than usual. It makes me wonder if this strange winter is so out of whack that the assumed model physics just can't deal with the unusual atmospheric realities this winter.

Next chance Tuesday?

So now we cast a leery eye toward the GFS, which is advertising another potential rain/snow system for next Tuesday.

Art this point it's anybody's guess how/where/if/what type of precip will fall. At least there is the notion of a storm...and it may bring some more much needed rain and or snow to drought plagued Minnesota.

Stay tuned!

PH

Sunday snow now favors northern MN; Evening sky show!

Posted at 5:24 PM on February 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Heavy snow band from Sioux Falls through Iowa to Chicago

Sky show in the southwest evening sky through this weekend (if clouds break)

Sunday storm sill looks potent - for northern Minnesota

Twin Cities on the edge of snow (again!) Sunday?

Poor model performance with track of latest clipper

Productive Clipper:

Now that's a nice little clipper!

A potent Alberta Clipper type storm system is dumping a fairly narrow but heavy band of snow Thursday through Friday.

The system tracked from near Sioux Falls South Dakota (where 5" fell) through central Iowa and is making a beeline for Chicago Friday.

The clipper is producing some 4" to 8" snowfall totals, and that should hold as it tracks through Chicagoland Friday.

Bad Models!!

I have to say we saw some poor model performance with the track of Thursday's clipper. Initially the GFS had heavy snow right up to the southern metro with the system, and the NAM painted snow in the metro for a couple of runs.

Good thing I never bought into that solution, because subsequent runs shifted the storm track even further southwest. The shifting advisories from Twin Cities NWS no doubt left them also feeling a bit confounded by the system's ever changing track.

The models did seem to handle the intensity and eventual snowfall output from the system well, but it's had to make an accurate forecast when the geographical distribution of snowfall is off by 100 miles.

Welcome to the big leagues of weather.

Sunday's Storm: Northern Minnesota's savior?

Now we get to look at Sunday's incoming system with weather finger and toes crossed.

One good thing, there seems to be more agreement with the major models on the track of Sunday's storm. For example, both the GFS and NAM bring the surface low from near Wheaton to Willmar to the Northern Metro to Spooner.

That track favors heavy snow in central and northern Minnesota, but not the metro.

NAM model snowfall output favors heavy snow up north.

The storm is still in the North Pacific and won't enter the Northern American surface and weather balloon "data grid" until Friday evening. By then, the amount of data on the incoming system should increase, and hopefully the eventual track will become more accurate.

There's still 36-48 hours and several more model runs ahead before we need to pull the final trigger on snowfall totals for Sunday. But at this point I'm leaning toward lighter snow in the metro and heavier snow north of a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line.

The models are suggesting 6" to 12" snowfall potential for much of northern Minnesota and especially along the ridge running along the North Shore. If that much snow falls, it will be a blessing for North Shore communities, rivers and streams which are painfully low. Extra snowpack could mean a nice flow in North Shore Rivers this spring and early summer!

Stay tuned!

Snow this week boosted season snowfall for Minnesota communities:

My MPR colleague Mark Seeley has details from his excellent weekly "Weather Talk" blog. Our snow this week helped some seasonal snowfall totals around the state.

Topic: Increase in seasonal snowfall totals

"Monday through Wednesday this week brought several inches of new snow to areas of the state. In fact, it was the snowiest 3-day period of the winter for some observers. In the north International Falls reported 8 inches; Crookston, Orr, Hibbing, Cook, and Two Harbors reported 6 inches; Isabella reported 6.2 inches; and Kabetogama reported 7.4 inches. In central Minnesota Mora reported 5.2 inches and Plymouth 5.0 inches, while MSP reported 2.7 inches. In the south Theilman, and Cannon Falls reported over 2 inches.

The new seasonal snowfall totals for some observers: Gunflint Lake 36.6 inches; Isabella 49.4 inches; Kabetogama 48.3 inches; Orr 40 inches, and International Falls 41.2 inches. Despite the recent snowfall, many locations are still significant seasonal deficiencies: at Duluth the season has delivered just 22.9 inches (normal through the end of February is 65.6 inches); at MSP the seasonal snowfall total is 18 inches (normal through the end of February is 39.7 inches); and at Rochester the seasonal snowfall total is just 20.1 inches (normal through the end of February is 39.9 inches)."

Evening sky show next few nights!?

It looks like you'll have to pick your spots for some breaks in the clouds, but the skies may briefly open up the next few evenings so if they do take a moment to check out the southwestern evening sky.

A rare conjunction of the 3 brightest objects in the sky will glow through this weekend. The moon, Jupiter and bright Venus will snuggle up together in the southwest evening sky for the next few nights.

The details from NASA.

"By the end of the month, the angle narrows to only 10 degrees--so close that you can hide them together behind your outstretched palm. Their combined beauty grows each night as the distance between them shrinks.

A special night to look is Saturday, Feb. 25th, when the crescent Moon moves in to form a slender heavenly triangle with Venus, Jupiter and the Moon as vertices (sky map). One night later, on Sunday, Feb. 26th, it happens again (sky map). This arrangement will be visible all around the world, from city and countryside alike. The Moon, Venus and Jupiter are the brightest objects in the night sky; together they can shine through urban lights, fog, and even some clouds."

The best chance for a few breaks in the clouds appears to be Friday & Saturday evening.

Enjoy!

PH

Iowa Clipper; Sunday track now favors central/northern MN heavy snow

Posted at 8:25 AM on February 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Winter storm warnings out for parts of South Dakota & Iowa today

Narrow heavy snow band with Iowa Clipper

Sunday storm track favors central and northern Minnesota

6"+ still possible with storm for Fargo, Brainerd, International Falls, Ely, Duluth & North Shore

40s possible again by Sunday March 4th?

Signs of spring on the weather maps in early March?

Clipper tracking south:

Snow is falling today from near Sioux Falls into much of northwest and central Iowa.

The heavy band of snow is fairly narrow, as illustrated by the narrow, jagged winter storm warnings in Iowa and South Dakota.

It's been interesting how the models have handled today's clipper system tracking through eastern South Dakota and Iowa.

In a word, poorly.

The models missed the track as little as 24 hours ago, with one model even suggesting heavy snow for the Twin Cities. Then models focused on southern Minnesota, and finally the system looks like it will slide even further south/west.

It's tough to forecast well with such poor model performance. We're not all knowing magical weather gurus here...we depend on accurate model data to make accurate forecasts.

Last winter every system that came though almost over performed on snowfall output.

This "winter" we're lucky if we can get half of what the models say we might get days in advance.

Sunday track shifts too!

Yesterday I talked about the trend to shift the storm track for Sunday's system ot the north. That trend is holding so far today.

The latest GFS runs track the surface low from near Redwood Falls to right over the Twin Cities. That track favors heavy snow in central and northern Minnesota, but not in the metro and southern Minnesota.

Any further shift to the north could drop snow amounts radically for the metro. It already looks like southern Minnesota may escape accumulating snow.

Stay tuned as we tweak the forecast track for Sunday!

Signs of Spring: 40s return??

We'd better get our snow in in the next 2 weeks or so because there are signs we may return to spring like warmth in March.

The GFS is hinting at upper 40s again by Sunday March 4th, and another shot of even milder air may move in in about 16 days.

Stay tuned.

PH

Thursday Winter Storm targets SW MN; Sunday track changes?

Posted at 4:55 PM on February 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Winter Storm Watches & Warnings posted for southern Minnesota & northern Iowa

4" to 7" snowfall possible in southwest Minnesota Thursday

Sharp snowfall cutoff on the system's northern edge

Flurries at most for metro

Sunday storm track trending north - watching for more changes

Winter Storm Thursday!

Here we go!

The next winter storm is moving through mainly SW Minnesota Thursday.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest Sioux Falls radar loop

The Alberta Clipper type system looks like an efficient snow producer. It's already produced lightning strikes in Montana, a sign of strong upward lift and potential heavy snowfall rates.

From Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion:

THERE IS ALREADY A LIGHTNING STRIKE UPSTREAM IN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

and...

LOOK OF POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE QUESTION TODAY HAS NOT BEEN IF THERE WILL BE A 6+" SNOWBAND...BUT WHERE.

Here at the weather lab, it looks like a general area of 4" to 7" in southern Minnesota Thursday.

There may be a narrow band that could produce some heavier 6" to 10" totals along the I-35 & I-90 corridors, including northern Iowa.

Prepare for snowy travel conditions in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Thursday!

Twin Cities: On the northern edge

It appears the Twin Cities may just escape the brunt of Thursday's system. The GFS and other models have been consistent in keeping most of the snow south of the metro. The NAM has tried to move snow north...but the latest run is more in line with the GFS's "southern solution."

Sunday: Storm still looks good, but track is a wild card

I'm still closely watching Sunday's potential storm for Minnesota, which is still out over the North Pacific today.

Think about that for a minute. There's a storm over 2,000 miles away in the North Pacific that's likely to affect Minnesota Sunday. That we even have the tools and technology to even make that statement is really quite amazing and useful I think!

But I digress....

Overall the storm structure still looks potent for Sunday, but the track has shifted north.

If that holds, the heaviest snow bands would end up in central and northern Minnesota, The metro could still be in line for some heavy snow....the latest GFS runs are suggesting around 5" or so near the metro...with 6" to 12"+ potential in a large area of central and northern Minnesota.

GFS model suggests heavier snowfall totals north and south of the metro from Thursday & Sunday storms combined.

It's still too early to pinpoint who will get heavy snow or just how many inches. But the storm is still "on" for somebody, at this point it may just be a question of where.

**If the track moves much further north a "dry slot" may limit snow from the metro south, and keep heavier snow totals in central and northern Minnesota.**

At least there are 3 likely storms for "Somewhere, Minnesota" in the next week or so!

Oh yeah, did I mention there's potential for another storm next week?

Stay tuned!

PH

Snow cover effect; Still watching snow chances Thursday & Sunday

Posted at 8:43 AM on February 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Clipper Thursday to bring snow to southern Minnesota

Modles differ on system track Thursday (Rochester or Metro?)

Bigger storm still likely Sunday for Minnesota

GFS shifts track slightly north in latest model runs?

+2 hours of additional daylight since December 21st!

Sunshine returns to the weather lab today!

Sunglasses Alert!

You'll need to find the shades today! The combination of some sunshine and bright "highly reflective" snow cover means it will be brighter out there than it has been for much of this winter.

It's called "albedo." That's the reflectivity of various ground covers on incoming sunlight.

Fresh snow cover is the most efficient solar reflector, returning about 80% to 90% of the sun's incoming energy back into space before it can heat up the air near the ground.

Bare ground can absorb and "reradiate" about 80% of the sun's rays. That energy is then used to heat the air near the surface.

The result? Temps can run a good 10 degrees cooler on days like today with fresh snow cover in Minnesota. If we had bare ground today like most of the winter, we'd likely make a run well into the 40s again; with fresh snow we'll stall somewhere in the upper 30s in most areas.

Thursday Clipper: Which track is best?

The models differ a bit on the track of Thursday's Alberta Clipper sailing in from the northwest.

The clipper looks to feature a relatively narrow band of snowfall about 60 miles wide.

The GFS lays that band out along the Minnesota River towns of Redwood Falls and Mankato southeast toward Rochester, and suggests a 2" to 4" snowfall.

The overnight NAM run shifts the system north...from Willmar into the Twin Cities. It should be noted that the overnight NAM is sometimes less reliable, but it bears watching to see what the next couple of model runs do today!

Sunday storm: Still on track, but which track?

Looking ahead to Sunday's potential snow storm I am reminded that there are 3 main factors that determine snowfall amounts in winter storm systems.

1) Storm Track:

The surface low pressure track is a key to where heavy snow may fall in winter storms. Generally speaking, the heaviest sow band favors an area about 90 to 120 miles north & west of the surface low pressure track.

This can vary of course from storm to storm, but it's a pretty good rule.

2) Moisture Profile:

Obviously, the amount of moisture a storm can draw in effects snowfall totals. The biggest factor in overall snowfall totals for Minnesota is usually the availability of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

If southerly winds ahead of the storm have time to pull up enough Gulf moisture, we get dumped on.

3) Temperature Profile:

Temps within the overall storm are critical to determine precip type and snow intensity. Generally, warm air is drawn up ahead of the system, and cold air wraps in behind mid latitude cyclones in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Often, the freezing, or "rain-snow" line sits just south of these low pressure centers. That's why the heaviest snow lies north of the low track, with mixed precip reducing snowfall totals as you go south.

Sunday's potential system shows some interesting trends.

The overnight GFS runs have shifted the track slightly north. If that pans out, the heaviest snow band could run from near Fargo to Brainerd and Duluth, instead of Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities.

The modes will likely show more shifts in the days ahead.

As usual, I'll wait until about 24 hours ahead of the onset of snowfall to issue my "final" snowfall predictions. This is the window where model accuracy and preparation time for people affected by the storm usually meet. At this point the best information is to say there will likely be a snowfall event Sunday, with specific totals to be determined as we approach the weekend.

Stay tuned!

PH

Sunday Storm: Winter's biggest? NOAA "Hurricane Hunters" dispatched

Posted at 5:00 PM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

18" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

38.8" average season snowfall to date at MSP Airport

-21.6 snowfall vs. average this season in metro

1.77" GFS model total precip output next 16 days

17.7" GFS total snowfall for MSP next 16 days
(assuming10:1 snow to water ratio)

Major winter storm potential for Sunday in parts of Minnesota

Still too early to be sure, but chances for heavy snow Sunday are growing!

NOAA "Hurricane Hunter" Aircraft flight into Pacific storm Friday!

It's Baaaack!

You knew we wouldn't totally escape winter in Minnesota.

Our Monday night/Tuesday snow system left some impressive, widespread snow totals for the first time in months.

It was a March-like snow...heavy and wet. Snow to water ratios ran about 9:1 for this snow fest. New Hope in the west metro picked up .44" of water in the snow. That's the most precip in the metro in 4+ months, since .54" fell as rain on October 12th!

Want some good news? While it's not enough to be classified as a "drought buster" yet, most of this snow (and what falls in the coming weeks) will melt and run into our very low rivers and lakes this spring!

Snow up north too!

This was a widespread snow event, and northern Minnesota got in on the much needed snowfall.

Here are some snow totals from the Northland (Duluth NWS) as of late Tuesday.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE EARLY SNOWFALL REPORTS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY
REPRESENT THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. AT 330 PM SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND FINAL REPORTS
FOR NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.00 2 W LITTLEFORK MN KOOCHICHING 1200 PM
6.90 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING 1200 PM
6.50 8 S BIGFORK MN ITASCA 1200 PM
5.50 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0910 AM
5.00 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 1245 PM
4.80 4 WSW BRUNO MN PINE 0800 AM
4.50 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0715 AM
4.10 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0830 AM
4.00 2 WSW HIBBING MN ST. LOUIS 0800 AM
4.00 2 NNE STURGEON LAKE MN PINE 0700 AM
3.70 4 E ISLAND LAKE MN ST. LOUIS 0910 AM
3.50 7 W GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 1050 AM
3.50 TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 1000 AM
3.50 LARSMONT MN LAKE 0831 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.50 3 S EVELETH MN ST. LOUIS 0804 AM
3.50 3 NNW ILLGEN CITY MN LAKE 0730 AM
3.50 SANDSTONE MN PINE 0600 AM
3.30 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0930 AM
3.20 GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT 0800 AM
3.10 5 NW DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 1200 PM
3.00 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1215 PM
3.00 9 NNE HERMANTOWN MN ST. LOUIS 0930 AM
3.00 ASKOV MN PINE 0930 AM
3.00 BEAVER BAY MN LAKE 0910 AM
3.00 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0845 AM
3.00 FLOODWOOD MN ST. LOUIS 0800 AM
3.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0800 AM
3.00 2 W HINCKLEY MN PINE 0730 AM
3.00 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0715 AM
3.00 FINLAYSON MN PINE 0700 AM
2.80 CLOQUET MN CARLTON 1000 AM
2.80 TOGO MN ITASCA 0800 AM
2.80 S COTTON MN ST. LOUIS 0650 AM
2.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS 0700 AM
2.40 3 NE DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0700 AM
2.30 1 W LUTSEN MN COOK 1232 PM
QUARTER MILE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
2.20 NISSWA MN CROW WING 0800 AM

I spent the weekend in Lutsen, and was sad to see the pathetically low river levels along the North Shore. You can also see the effects of severe drought in the forest. The North Shore is dangerously perched for a severe fire season as of now...so today's snow is a blessing. The North Shore can use all the snow it can get the next month (and a rainy spring) to get the rivers raging again to ease fire danger.

One of my son Luke's all time favorite teachers is Brien Getten who now lives (and teaches) in Two Harbors. We were fortunate to be able to stop and visit with the Gettens on Saturday at their beautiful property on the Knife River near Two Harbors. Brian says folks on the North Shore are really concerned about fire danger this year and hoping for more snow and rain this spring!

Luke & Mr. Getten on the frozen Knife River Saturday

Thanks for being such a great teacher Mr. Getten!

Sunday was perhaps the most beautiful day I have ever spent skiing at Lutsen. It was amazingly mild and clear, and I would estimate the visibility was at 30 to 40 miles. Simply spectacular!

I've seen more snow at Lutsen, but what is there was groomed and good skiing.

Here are some photos under a deep blue February sky Sunday.

Sunday "Snowpacolypse" Ahead?

Storms have been few and far between this winter, but things are looking up in the snowfall department.

A minor system may bring light snow Wednesday night into Thursday, but the big event on the horizon looks like it may roll in Sunday.

It's early, but this looks like it may have the potential to be the biggest storm of winter somewhere in Minnesota...and maybe the metro.

**It's just too early to say where heavy snow will fall and how much.**

With that disclaimer out of the way, a let's take an early look at Sunday's snow potential.

The System:

A powerful low pressure system is currently emerging into the northwest Pacific from Siberia, north of Japan.

Forecast Track:

The models move the system almost straight east across the Pacific, to near Vancouver and Seattle Friday. The system then crosses the Rockies, dips slightly south then makes a beeline for southern Minnesota Sunday night according to the GFS model.

If that track verifies, that is an excellent track for heavy snow in much of Minnesota.

Gulf Wide Open?

It appears the system will tap plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That could inject deep moisture into the system and wring it out as heavy snowfall over Minnesota Sunday.

Snowfall Potential?

Again...it's too early to put precise numbers on snowfall 5 days in advance.

But at this point all signs point to potentially heavy snowfall somewhere in Minnesota (and maybe in the metro) Sunday.

Look at the GFS "meteogram" for MSP Airport below. That's 12" of snow the GFS is cranking out folks.

Again the track or system could change...but the potential is looking better by the day.

Thunder Snow?

There is the possibility that this system will be strong enough to produce "Thunder Snow" by Sunday night. Again, this all depends on storm track, but the position of the upper low, "vorticity maxima" and upward vertical velocity or "lift" may be strong enough to create mini thunderstorms within the bigger storm.

If that happens, snowfall rates could reach 1" to 3" per hour in local areas.

NOAA: Hurricane Hunter dispatched to fly into storm over Pacific!

In an interesting twist to this storm NOAA will send a flight of "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft into the North Pacific to fly into this developing storm Wednesday.

The flight will drop 17 "dropsondes" into the system at altitudes of 41,000 to 45,000 feet. The data will be fed into NOAA supercomputers to help augment forecast model data; which is sparse over the vast Pacific Ocean.

From NOAA:

NOUS42 KNHC 211630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST TUE 21 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-084

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49 --
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 23WSC TRACK55
C. 22/1930Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z

The additional data should help the models like GFS get a better grip on the incoming storm.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters do occasionally fly into Pacific winter storms. This flight is an indication they think this could be a significant storm for much northern of the USA!

Stay tuned!

PH

Game On: Snowy pattern could produce 1-2 FEET next 2 weeks!

Posted at 8:34 AM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

3" to 5" snowfall totals in much of the metro Monday night

4" to 7" for much of northeast Minnesota today!

9 to 1 snow to rain ratio (That's a pretty "wet" snowfall)

.44" liquid from snowfall in New Hope

4 months since we've seen this much precipitation in the metro (October 12th .54")

Active jet stream now racing through the Upper Midwest

Several snow systems likely in next 2 weeks

1.5" to 2" GFS liquid precip output next 2 weeks

12" to 20+" snowfall possible for some Minnesota locations next 2 weeks?

Instant winter wonderland at the weather lab Tuesday

NWS snowfall totals from Monday/Tuesday's snow event

Here we go:

It's official.

Somebody flipped Minnesota's snow switch to the "on" position.

Monday's productive snow system was the first wave in what looks to be a series of snow systems aiming for Minnesota in the next 2 weeks.

If the forecasts verify, some parts of Minnesota could pick up 1 to 2 FEET of snow in the next 2 weeks including Monday's snowfall.

A series of storms?

The GFS accurately predicted Monday night's snow system, and it's keeping things active. Here's a break down of potential snow systems in the next 2 weeks according to the GFS.

Wednesday night & Thursday: A clipper like system capable of producing a few more inches (another 1" to 3"+) of snow.

Sunday & Monday: A potential "major winter storm" capable of producing heavy snowfall (6"+?) somewhere in Minnesota depending on storm track.

March 3rd: Another system possible

March 7-8th: Yet another rain/snow system possible

Bosco The Weather Cat surveys the situation

Snow adding up?

If the GFS verifies, total snowfall (including last night & today's system) could be 1 to 2 feet in parts of Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. The last few GFS runs have been cranking out anywhere from 1.5" to 2"+ the next 2 weeks, and that should translate into more than a foot of snow for some Minnesota locations.

4" of heavy wet snow weighs down weather lab shrub

Keep in mind it's not spring yet, and the potential for heavy snow lingers another 5 weeks or so in Minnesota.

This could be great news for easing Minnesota's severe drought.

Stay tuned!

PH

Impressive snow totals; Slick spots linger for AM rush

Posted at 12:25 AM on February 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

3.8" snowfall at the Deephaven Weather Lab (west metro) as of midnight (and still snowing)

Snow covered and slippery roads overnight

Slick spots remain for AM rush

Latest snow totals from NWS

Major pattern change may bring heavy snow to parts of Minnesota next 2 weeks

3.8" snowfall on the "weather deck" as of midnight

"The Little Storm That Could:"

Now that was a snow event! Monday night's snow blast hit quick & hard, with rapid accumulation of snow once the intense snowfall rate overcame warm ground.

I was in Lutsen this weekend, and drove smack into the snowy blast as I hit the north metro along I-35 Monday evening. Roads became really, really bad in a hurry.

Here's a quick post with some images from Monday night.

Snow on the weather lab deck Monday night, with snow streaks caught on camera

Expect very slick roads early this Tuesday AM! (MNDOT cam I-394 near Wayzata)

"Streaky & Freaky" snow art with flakes falling in camera flash Monday night.

Get used to the snow. The overall pattern looks favorable for numerous snow systems that could produce heavy snow totals over the next 2 weeks for parts of Minnesota!

More on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer (and Updraft) early Tuesday.

PH

Central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin Winter Weather Advisory

Posted at 7:28 PM on February 20, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Rain quickly changed to snow and temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s. A band of moderate snow will move across the Twin Cities between 730pm and 10pm. Local snowfalls may reach up to four inches late tonight.

Snow has accumulated on side streets and sidewalks. Main roadways, especially treated highways, should remain wet as the mercury hangs close to 32 degrees overnight.

Travel with caution.

Keep up with the latest from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.
CE

Winter Weather Advisory northern Minnesota

Posted at 5:25 PM on February 20, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Rain changing to snow will create slick spots on lesser traveled roads, particularly in northern MInnesota overnight. Heavy bursts of snow have reduced visibility to a quarter mile at Crookston and Park Rapids. Visbility was a half mile in snow at Wadena, Glenwood and Alexandria shortly before sunset.

I've been examing the model data through the afternoon. The latest Rapid Update Cycle initialized at 3pm is forecasting a nice concentration of precipitation around the Twin Cities from late evening until early Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations could reach four inches in heavier snow bursts.

Note the green(quarter inch liquid) output around the metro. Other random higher amounts of precipitation are scattered across the state. Liquid to snow could translate to three inches of snow. Temperatures will hold around 34 to 36 degrees for several hours this evening.

Here's your forecast for snow amounts in the Northland from the NWS in Duluth. Snow may linger in the Arrowhead Tuesday morning. They need the moisture there as well.

Let's see how this plays out in the next 12 hours. Paul will be back on Tuesday. We talked last week and I recall saying the safe prediction for today would be 1 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. The models were not giving us much more than that the last several runs.
CE

We were due for some moisture

Posted at 2:58 PM on February 20, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

A combination of snow mixed with rain was falling over the western half of Minnesota at mid afternoon. This large area of precipitation is encroaching on eastern Minnesota and will arrive shortly after sunset. Since temperatures have spiked into the lower and middle 40s in east cental Minnesota the precipitation is likely to begin as rain.

Dyanmic and evaporational cooling will occur once the precipitation commences. Expect rain to mix with and change to snow in the early evening hours. A couple inches of accumulation can be expected. What's a couple? How about two to three, with isolated areas lucky to measure four inches.

South winds ease during the darkness hours. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing overnight. Watch for slick spots if you are out late or up early.

Snow will continue in Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota Tuesday. Another streak of snow may arrive Wednesday night and Thursday across central and southern Minnesota. Through the first nineteens days of February, the Twin Cities Airport had measured only 0.05 inch of liquid moisture.

Regional radar snapshot at 3PM local time.

Track the weather/snow reports from the Chanhassen NWS at this link.

March may arrive on the cool side in our neck of the woods.

NOAA's Climate Center prediction for the 8 to 14 day period heading into the meteorological spring.
CE

Breathing some life into Old Man Winter

Posted at 6:38 AM on February 20, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2011-12

Temperatures were several degrees above normal this morning and a strong south wind should be sufficient to push the mercury well into the 30s in southern Minnesota. We could reach 40 degrees in the Twin Cities this afternoon.

The conundrum for the forecast of snow amounts is when the precipitation will change to all snow and how much energy remains in the mid levels of the atmosphere tonight. We'll see precipitation increasing in coverage in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas as the morning progresses. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for western and northern Minnesota for today and tonight. The region from Moorhead through Bemidji to Ely has the best opoprtunity to see three to five inches of accumulation by Tuesday morning.

In east central Minnesota precipitation is expected to begin as a mixture of rain and sleet around dusk. Precipitation will then change to all snow later in the evening. In the Twin Cities metro area look for the possibility of a couple of inches of snow overnight.

Here's a look how the forecasters at NOAA expect liquid precipitation to dampen the landscape today and tonight.

This is welcome moisture after the dry winter we have experienced to date. The US Drought Monitor had much of the state of Minnesota in moderate drought as of last week.

Snow contiunes to fall in Wisconsin Tuesday, with a couple of inches possible from Eau Claire to Ashland. There will not be an invasion of cold air in the wake of the precipitation. Temperatures will be in the 30s in southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

Another bout of accumulating snow is possible in central Minnesota Wednesday night and Thursday.

Stay tuned this week, the weather pattern looks a little frisky. Much colder temperatures may be in the offing for the upcoming weekend.
CE

40 again Sunday? Unusually warm soil temps; Monday snow chance

Posted at 5:30 PM on February 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

43 high temp at MSP Friday
(43 is average for March 20th)

19th day at or above 40 this winter!

5 days at or above 40 last winter

+7.5 degrees vs. average at MSP in February

32 degrees soil temp at 6" near Austin, MN on Feb 17th!

Snow chance Monday

Midday replay with MPR's Huttner & KARE-11's Sven Sundgaard

Another day, another 40!

Friday's 43 degree high at MSP was the 18th time this winter the temp has hit 40 in the metro and much of southern Minnesota. Last winter we managed just 5 days at or above 40 degrees.

We'll make another at 40 run Sunday.

Friday's temp map looks similar to what we've seen this winter.

Monday snow ahead?

Forecast models have locked onto low pressure Monday for Minnesota. The system could bring mostly light snow to much of the state.

Early indications favor 1" to 3" totals, but the weekend model runs will (hopefully) nail down the system in greater detail.

No frost in February??

I almost sat back in my chair looking at soil temps this week. According to the real time 6" soil temp plots form the MN Climate Working Group site, soil temps are at or above freezing in southern Minnesota near Austin!

Soil temps are just below freezing at many of the other southern Minnesota locations as of Friday afternoon.

Austin 32
Mankato 30
Pipestone 30
Hutchinson 28
Benson 26 (from 15 Monday to 26 Friday!)

We would expect deep frost this time of year in southern Minnesota...but not this winter.

Midday replay:

It was great to spend some time chatting with KARE-11's Sven Sundgaard on Midday Friday. Yes that's his real name, and yes he has a goat.

We covered a lot of ground, and you asked some great questions.

Here's the replay in case you missed it.

I'm off to Lutsen to play in the snow this weekend. Join Craig Edwards Monday for updates on our snow chances.

Have a great weekend!

Snow chances still lurking next week; Climate saga continues

Posted at 4:02 PM on February 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter 2011-12

0.8" of fluffy snow showers Wednesday PM in Waconia

Snow chances still linger for next week

4th warmest winter on record likely for metro

Climate change - science vs. policy

Weak upper air disturbance triggered a few snow showers Wednesday
(MNDOT cam)

Snow chances still loom next week?

I keep getting asked "Hey Huttner, are we going to get any snow soon?"

The answer is an unqualified yes, probably.

The forecast models are still trying to lock on to a change in the upper air pattern next week. The jet stream should snake down into the central USA next week. Exactly where it ends up will determine who get the snow, and who doesn't.

It still looks like Minnesota may be in line for a lighter snow system on Monday into Tuesday.

The models then suggest two major system later next week into the following weekend sweeping through the central USA. The latest (GFS) version takes the first one towards Chicago by next Wednesday. That track could produce heavy snow in Wisconsin.

A second strong system is advertised close to Minnesota by the following weekend.

GFS still hints at snow chances in the next two weeks.

Track errors can literally be hundreds of miles this far out, so it's too early to tell if these systems will materialize. But it's more than we've had to talk about for weeks. And the pattern change does suggest our chances for getting some serious Midwest snow continue to grow for next week.

Stay tuned!

Climate Chage 2.0: What we know and what some continue to deny

My MPR colleague Bob Collins has a great write up today about a new effort to obfuscate climate science in schools, and why "Climategate" was an unsuccessful attempt to discredit the overwhelming body of solid, credible climate science.

"Today's climate change debate is stoked by news of a "leaked" attempt by the so-called Heartland Institute to create a K-12 curriculum on climate change that appears to undermine the generally accepted science.

When it comes to all this, the comparison to "Climategate" springs to mind, but there's one enormous difference: Climategate was manufactured, a made-up controversy (what I call a manufactroversy) that had no real teeth -- as was its failed sequel. The emails released weren't damning at all, and didn't show scientists tinkering with or faking data. As much as the media made of it, as much as climate change denial blogs played them up, it has been shown again and again that Climategate was all sound and fury, signifying nothing."

There's a disconnect between climate science and politics.

Here are some indisputable facts about climate science:

1) Global CO2 levels are rising rapidly. This is a documented, measured increase.

2) The vast majority of climate scientists (97%) believe there is a human caused component of climate change.

More from EPA:

"There is now clear evidence that the Earth's climate is warming:

Climate change will affect different regions, ecosystems, and sectors of the economy in many ways, depending not only on the sensitivity of those systems to climate change, but also on their ability to adapt to risks and changing conditions. Throughout history, societies and ecosystems alike have shown remarkable capacity to respond to risks and adapt to different climates and environmental changes. Today, effects of climate change have already been observed, and the rate of warming has increased in recent decades."

It's worth saying one more time: Climate science is clear about climate change facts. Policy makers and politicians are the ones who decide what to do about it, that's climate change policy.

PH

PH

Mixed weather bag: PM snow showers slide through

Posted at 2:33 PM on February 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

What's that old saying?

"If you don't like the weather in Minnesota just wait 15 minutes?

Pretty much sums up today. Some fog, sun, clouds and now snow showers. At least it's above freezing so it shouldn't gum up the works PM rush too much.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The weak upper air disturbance zipping through is moving pretty quickly, so the snow showers should be outta here by this evening.

PH

Growing chances for (potentially big?) snow next week?

Posted at 8:45 AM on February 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Happy Valentine's Day from the weather lab!

0.3" snowfall Monday at MSP Airport

15.2" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

61.1" snowfall to date last winter by this date!

Pattern change ahead next week

Snow chances increasing next week?

Major winter storm potential late next week according to GFS model?

Foggy start along I-35 near the Minnesota River today. (MNDOT image)

Foggy start:

It's another foggy start for much of eastern Minnesota today. Residual moisture from Monday's light snow has left a fog blanket around eastern Minnesota. Drier air means ths sun is shining in western Minnesota today.

The fog will thin as the day goes on, and we could see a little sunshine later this afternoon.

Milder days ahead:

The air mass is fairly mild this week. If we get any sun, temps could respond into the upper 30s and maybe touch 40 in southern Minnesota Wednesday.

Pattern change next week: Snow chances increasing?

Last week I posted about the chances for snow increasing the week of February 20th.

The overnight GFS model runs have "reacquired" the shift in the jet stream pattern that leads me to believe we may not be out of the woods just yet when it comes to snow this winter.

So far this winter the jet stream has lifted way north into Canada, or been stuck in a northwest flow over Minnesota. That pattern has brought us alternating record mild spells and infrequent bouts of light snow.

That may change next week.

The GFS is locking onto a southwest flow aloft in the upper atmosphere.

GFS: Major upper air storm over Minnesota Friday Feb 24th?

Two distinct waves of low pressure may ride the newly established southwest flow, bringing moisture and snow chances to Minnesota.

The first could roll through next Monday night & Tuesday. Early indications are this system could be light to moderate, and potential bring a few inches of snow to parts of central and southern Minnesota.

The second system may be bigger.

It's still a longgggggg way out, but The GFS is winding up what could potentially be the season's first "major winter storm" (did I just type that??) in Minnesota next Friday, February 24th.

According to the GFS, a strong upper level wave will deepen a surface low pressure storm over the Upper Midwest late next week. If the models pan out, that could produce the season's first heavy snow somewhere in or near Minnesota.

Model fantasy or major winter strom next Friday February 24th?

Today's GFS run suggest a powerful surface low pumping warm moisture rich Gulf of Mexico air into Minnesota next Thursday. Temps in the 40s could begin the storm as rain, then quickly change precip to heavy snow as the system races by.

The GFS precip numbers are insane at this point, suggesting around 2" precip totals. If most of that falls as snow, this would truly be a major winter storm.

**It's simply too early to know how much credibility to place in this solution. The models can (and probably will) shift the storm track south to Chicago or even further east in future model runs.**

But there are some signs that lead me to believe the GFS may be onto something.

1) The overall pattern shift looks reasonable

2) The models have hinted at this shift more than once in the past few days

3) We're due!

4) There are still a good 6 more weeks in the realistic "snow season" in Minnesota.

If the storm evolves late next week the GFS is advertising a "bomb" over the Upper Midwest. It's way too early to be talking inches, or even if it will happen, but if the GFS is right, somebody could see a huge pile of snow next Friday.

As we say in the weather biz....

Stay tuned!

PH

Japan Tsunami debris headed for West Coast!

Posted at 5:45 PM on February 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Coating to 1"+ Monday from the metro south to I-90

2" to 4" totals in northern Iowa

January 28th last measureable snow at MSP Airport (0.4")

+7.3 degrees - temps vs. average at MSP so far in February.

40 possible in southern Minnesota on Valentine's Day

Arctic Oscillation reversed winter patterns around the globe this winter

Japan tsunami debris may soon hit USA!

This is a little scary, but real.Check out the story from Huffington Post.

"At this very moment, up to 25 million tons of debris--occupying an area roughly the size of California--is a on a collision course for the North American west coast.

The floating wreckage, often called flotsam, is a result of the massively destructive, 9.0-magnitude earthquake that struck just off the coast of Japan last March."

Yikes!

Snowy dusting:

MNDOT cam at I-35 & Co Rd. 46 in south metro shows snowy dusting Monday.

Monday featured the first measureable snow in two weeks in parts of the metro and southern Minnesota.

The weak system spawned a few flurries that produced a snowy coating in the metro, with some light accumulations south. As much as 2" to 4" of snow fell on northern Iowa.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 ODEBOLT IA SAC 1125 AM
STORM TOTAL
3.00 SSW JEFFERSON IA GREENE 1235 PM
3.00 ROCKWELL CITY IA CALHOUN 1028 AM
3.00 DENISON IA CRAWFORD 1028 AM
3.00 POCAHONTAS IA POCAHONTAS 1028 AM
3.00 EMMETSBURG IA PALO ALTO 0948 AM
STILL SNOWING
2.00 ESTHERVILLE IA EMMET 1044 AM
ABOUT TO INCHES
2.00 SAC CITY IA SAC 0720 AM
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING...
1.50 DES MOINES INT AIRPORT IA POLK 1200 PM
AIRPORT MEASURED 1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL
1.40 3 NW JOHNSTON IA POLK 1200 PM
STORM TOTAL...SNOW HAS ENDED
1.30 3 NE YALE IA GUTHRIE 1045 AM
1.00 PERRY IA DALLAS 1047 AM
0.80 MASSENA IA CASS 0814 AM
SNOW STILL FALLING
0.50 NNE MASON CITY IA CERRO GORDO 1130 AM
FROM KIMT TV STUDIOS

Warm hearts & milder temps on Valentine's Day!

The sun should return Tuesday, and that means milder temps are on the way again.

Highs should push well into the upper 30s, and southern Minnesota will see a shot at 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

The sun & milder temps should melt most of the light snow that managed to fall Monday.

Temps should again approach 40 Wednesday, before a slight cooling trend later this week.

Winter 2011-'12: It's all about the Arctic Oscillation

Yes Minnesotans are scratching our collective heads about the "non winter" of 2011-'12.

Where's the snow? How could it possibly be so warm? Why is my ice house sinking? How can we go from "Snomageddon" to "brown lawns" in January?

It turns out the answer may lie in the Arctic Oscillation. (AO) Yes, we love to have some neat little weather geeky term to blame everything on.

Last winter the AO was strongly negative. That phase allows cold air to come south, while the poles remain warmer.

This year the AO stayed strongly positive until late January. When it shifted to negative, bitterly cold air surged into Europe making for one of the worst winter outbreaks in decades.

Take a look at the images below from NOAA.

On the left, is last winter's negative phase, which included Minnesota in "blue territory." Notice how much of the Midwest and eastern USA and Europe is in blue. Meanwhile Greenland and Alaska are in "warmer" reds as the warm air hugged the polar regions.

On the right is this winter through December 15th. You can clearly see "warmer" red areas (including Minnesota, Europe and Russia) early on this winter with the positive AO. Greenland and Alaska ran colder than average during this early winter positive AO phase.

There are many factors that can affect winter patterns around the globe, and it's hard to say which causes which...a little "chicken and egg." This winter there is no doubt that the AO was the major controlling factor to our winter so far.

They say al weather is local, and the best way to illustrate the difference in AO phases between this winter and last winter might be the two photos below.

February 2011: Deep snow at the weather lab. Strongly negative AO

February 2012: Little snow at the weather lab. Strong Positve AO

Tell your neighbor at the ice house next to yours..."It's that darn AO this winter!"

PH

Midwest snow drought: Lowest snow cover in 7 years!

Posted at 8:30 AM on February 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter 2011-12

33.8" of the USA covered with snow today

56.9% covered 1 year ago

28.8% of the Upper Midwest covered with snow today

7 years since this little coverage in the Upper Midwest
(22.9% in 2005)

86.3% last year on this date in the Upper Midwest

0.8" average depth of Midwest snow cover today

14.1" average depth of Midwest snow cover last year on this date!

Flurries in the metro today - light dusting at best

1" to 2" along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota today

2" to 4" in northern Iowa

Light snowy dusting south today:

A few "lucky" towns will get some light snow today in southern Minnesota, and there may even be enough to plow in northern Iowa.

A weak system passing south of Minnesota will bring a few flurries or snow showers to the metro. A snowy dusting is most likely in the south metro today.

1" yo 2" may fall near the Iowa border, with 2" to 4" in northern Iowa.

At least it's something for drought stricken southern Minnesota!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Snow drought: Lowest snow cover in 7 years in the Midwest!

Overall this winter has been a big bust in the snowfall department.

In fact it's the least snowy winter in 7 years as measured by the percentage of snow cover on this date.

Snow cover today in the Upper Midwest

Snow cover last year!

Looking back over the past few years, this is the least snow cover on this date in 7 years in the Upper Midwest.

The numbers from NOHRSC:

% snow cover in the Upper Midwest
(Western Wisconsin, Minnesota, Dakotas & E Montana)

25.4% today

22.9% in 2005

The more telling number may be the average depth of the snow. This year 0.8". Last year 14.1"

Last year 3 to 6"+ of water was locked up in snow pack ready to be released during the spring melt. This year we'll be lucky to get an inch of runoff if things keep up this way.

The good news? Little or no chance of severe flooding this spring.

The bad news? Little runoff for rivers, lakes & ponds.

There are still some signs of at least some snow in Minnesota next week.

Stay tuned!

PH

Weekend chill; Chicago Lake Effect snow!

Posted at 1:25 PM on February 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Finally a winter like weekend!

Meanwhile in Chicago:

-Latest Chicago radar loop

PH

Snowy pattern ahead? March/April critical for 2012 drought prospects

Posted at 6:12 PM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, La Nina, Spring 2012, Winter 2011-12

Week of February 20th GFS hinting at possible snow systems for Minnesota

1.51" GFS liquid output for MSP week of Feb 20th

14.9" season snowfall so far at MSP

16.5" average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season at MSP

96.2% of Minnesota now in "moderate" to "severe" drought!

March snowfall potential critical for easing "hydrologic" drought

April rainfall potential critical for easing "agricultural" drought

Snowy pattern change ahead?

It's too early to be definitive on this, but there are some encouraging signs for Minnesotans who want snow. Our desert dry winter doldrums may be about the end.

The upper air pattern is showing signs of becoming more "chaotic" in the next two weeks. Translation? We may finally get some snow storms passing in or near Minnesota.

Much of the USA has been mired in a persistent west-northwest upper air flow pattern this winter. This has brought mild air, and also little moisture.

The GFS model is advertising a more west-southwest flow starting the week of February 20th. This could steer a series of Pacific storms into the Midwest, and some of them may actually dip into the southern Plains and gulp down some significant moisture before dumping it as snowfall on Minnesota.

GFS hints at a possible "Panhandle Hook" snow storm around February 21st?

While it's still way too early to credibly support these numbers, The 12Z GFS cranked out 1.5" of "liquid" precip the week of February 20th from 2 different storm systems. If that verified and fell as all snow, it could add up to 10" to 15"+ somewhere in Minnesota that week.

We'll see. Trying to credibly nail storm systems that far in advance is futile. But the take away is this; The overall upper air pattern is changing and there could be a growing chance of snowfall the week of February 20th.

Stay tuned!

2012: Year of the Texas-sized "mega-drought" in Minnesota?

As we look ahead toward spring, Minnesota's growing drought looms as the biggest weather story and concern of 2012.

A full 96.2% of Minnesota is classified in "moderate" or "severe" drought in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.

The water tap shut off late last summer in Minnesota, and last fall was the driest on record for many locations. Soils heading into the freeze were powder dry, and will remain that way into the spring thaw.

Weather patterns the rest of this winter into this spring will be critical in determining if this will become one of the worst droughts in Minnesota history, or a significant drought that is eased by above average spring precipitation.

Here are the variable at play the next 3 months.

Late February & March:

The second half of February and the month of March may determine how critical Minnesota's "hydrologic" drought is going into the summer of 2012.

We're living through the 2nd lowest snowfall season to date for much of southern Minnesota. Snowfall at MSP Airport is only 14.9" so far, that's a good month in most years and a good storm last year!

Northern Minnesota has seen better snowfall totals, but most areas are still way below average for the season.

The average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season is 16.5" in the metro and southern Minnesota. We'll need average to much above average snowfall between now and April to provide enough snow melt runoff to feed Minnesota's rivers & lakes, which are at very low levels.

This runoff is critical for easing the "hydrologic" component of drought (rivers, ponds, lakes etc.) but doesn't help much with the "agricultural" or "soils" component since the ground is still frozen and most runoff from snow melt won't soak in.

That's where April weather comes in to play.

April & May:

Average rainfall for April is about 2.3" for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. We will need every drop this spring and significantly more if we are going to stave off a major drought in 2012.

The ground thaws in April. April rainfall soaks into soils, and will recharge them for the growing season. We'll need above average rainfall in April & May to ease drought conditions in Minnesota. Average rainfall won't do this year. A good 4" to 8" of spring rains is what we need to prevent serious drought as we head into the summer of 2012.

Will fading La Nina help?

CPC is out today with news that La Nina is close to being history in the tropical Pacific.

This could possibly be good news for a wetter spring in Minnesota. If "ENSO neutral" conditions evolve we could see a return to more "normal" spring weather patterns in the Midwest.

At this point (in a drought) any pattern change is likely to lead to wetter conditions.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.

Stay tuned!

Arctic air pushes south:

A few flurries may accompany the arctic front surging south into early Friday. Get ready for a bracing day Friday, with wind chills at or below zero in most of Minnesota!

Chicago lake effect snow blitz Friday!

As arctic air hits the still relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, a rare lake effect snow burst will hit the Windy City and northwest Indiana Friday into Saturday.

While lake effect is common in northwest Indianan and Michigan, low level wind trajectories have to be just right to get lake effect snow in Chicago. Friday into early Saturday brings the perfect NNE wind trajectory that flows down the entire fetch of Lake Michigan and right into the Chicago metro area.

At least 6" could fall in Chicago, and this set up look so good that I wouldn't be shocked to see some bands of 6" to 12" in and close to Chicago.

At least somebody in the Midwest is getting snow Friday!

PH

Warmest winter of our lifetime so far! A shot at 40 today? Arctic Friday

Posted at 8:22 AM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

2nd warmest winter on record so far in the metro

134 years since we've seen a warmer winter (1877-'78)

3 sub zero nights so far this winter at MSP Airport

30 nights of sub zero in an "average" winter

40 today for western Minnesota and maybe the metro

Arctic front tonight & Friday

Sub zero in northern Minnesota tonight & Saturday morning

Near zero in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning

30s return next week!

Warmest winter in our lifetime:

It's been 134 years since we've seen a winter this warm! Details from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

"The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees."

Twin Cities Warmest Meteorological Winters

Top Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperatures (Twin Cities 1872-2012)

Rank Year Avg. Temp
--------------------------
1.) 1877-1878 29.0 F
2.) 2011-2012 27.0 F*
3.) 1930-1931 26.9 F
4.) 2001-2002 26.8 F
5.) 1997-1998 25.9 F
6.) 1986-1987 25.8 F
7.) 1982-1983 24.0 F
8.) 1991-1992 23.5 F
9.) 1943-1944 23.5 F
10.) 1920-1921 23.2 F
11.) 1999-2000 23.1 F

*As of February 7

2nd fewest sub zero nights too!

"The Twin Cities International Airport has only seen three nights that have dipped below zero for the winter of 2011-2012. That means that this winter has the second fewest sub-zero nights on record back to 1872. The coldest Minimum Temperature of the 2011-2012 season so far in the Twin Cities is -11. This is in a five-way tie for the third warmest winter minimum. The warmest winter minimum is -3 in the winter of 2001-02."

Twin Cities Least Number of Below Zero Minimums in a Winter
Rank Year Number of days below zero (Twin Cities 1872-2012)
-------------------------------
1.) 2001-2002 2
2.) 2011-2012 3*
3.) 1877-1878 4
4.) 1930-1931 5
5.) 2005-2006 6
6.) 1881-1882 7
6.) 1986-1987 7
8.) 1982-1983 8
9.) 1920-1921 9
10.) 1997-1998 10

*As of February 7

"January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees."

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.
Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

Mild ahead of arctic front today!

We'll warm quickly today for several reasons.

1) Stronger February sun & higher sun angle

2) Bare ground-lack of snow cover

3) Dry air mass heats easily

Chilly weekend; 30s again next week?

Get ready to ride another temp roller coaster. Temps plunge this weekend, only to recover next week!

Enjoy this last mild day for a while!

PH

February Sky Show! Near 40 Thursday? Arctic Friday; 2nd warmest winter so far

Posted at 5:25 PM on February 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12

Stronger February sun boosts temps into the 30s again

40 degrees possible in southwest Minnesota Thursday?

Arctic front arrives Thursday night!

Near 0 in the metro Saturday morning?

"Pine Tree Effect" season kicks in in northern Minnesota

February Sky Show!

This is a great night and month for sky watchers!

Several planets are bright and scattered across the evening sky this month. Venus is the most brilliant...that brightly glowing planet in the southwest sky after sunset has extra "hang time" this month as it sits higher above the horizon now.

The just past full moon rises in the east after sunset and dazzles with Mars and the constellation Leo.

Orion is high up in the southeast sky at dusk, and rides the southern sky all night long.

Get out on these crystal clear nights and enjoy the show!

More details from Sky and Telescope.

This Week's Planet Roundup

"Mercury is out of sight in conjunction with the Sun. By the end of February, however, it will be back in view having its best evening apparition of the year, low in the western twilight.

Neptune is lost in twilight."

here's a good video from astrocast.tv

Milder Thursday!

As cold air begins to pour into northern Minnesota Thursday, a wedge of milder air will slide into southern Minnesota ahead of the advancing cold front.

With ever stronger February sun and little or no snow cover, temps could again make a run at 40 in much of western & southern Minnesota...and maybe even the metro.

Arctic Front Arrives Thursday night:

By Friday morning you'll feel the newest attempted shot of arctic air in Minnesota. Temps should plunge below zero up north, and single digits in the south.

The cold air will last through Saturday, before a moderating trends kicks in Sunday afternoon.

Temps could dip to near 0 in the metro Saturday morning, with some sub-zero readings in the 'Burbs. Northern Minne4sota should dip well below zero this weekend.

"Pine Tree Effect" kicks in:

We're moving into Pine Tree Effect season in northern Minnesota. The green trees cause the sun's rays to bounce around and warm the air faster than a snow covered prairie. On sunny calm days it can be much warmer on the Iron Range than on the snow covered treeless prairies of western Minnesota.

With less snow cover this winter the effect may not be as pronounced as in previous years.

2nd warmest winter on record so far:

More from the MN Climate Working Group:

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees.

Twin Cities Warmest Meteorological Winters
Top Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperatures (Twin Cities 1872-2012)

Rank Year Avg. Temp
--------------------------
1.) 1877-1878 29.0 F
2.) 2011-2012 27.0 F*
3.) 1930-1931 26.9 F
4.) 2001-2002 26.8 F
5.) 1997-1998 25.9 F
6.) 1986-1987 25.8 F
7.) 1982-1983 24.0 F
8.) 1991-1992 23.5 F
9.) 1943-1944 23.5 F
10.) 1920-1921 23.2 F
11.) 1999-2000 23.1 F

*As of February 7
The Twin Cities International Airport has only seen three nights that have dipped below zero for the winter of 2011-2012. That means that this winter has the second fewest sub-zero nights on record back to 1872. The coldest Minimum Temperature of the 2011-2012 season so far in the Twin Cities is -11. This is in a five-way tie for the third warmest winter minimum. The warmest winter minimum is -3 in the winter of 2001-02.

Twin Cities Least Number of Below Zero Minimums in a Winter
Rank Year Number of days below zero (Twin Cities 1872-2012)
-------------------------------
1.) 2001-2002 2
2.) 2011-2012 3*
3.) 1877-1878 4
4.) 1930-1931 5
5.) 2005-2006 6
6.) 1881-1882 7
6.) 1986-1987 7
8.) 1982-1983 8
9.) 1920-1921 9
10.) 1997-1998 10

As of February 7

January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees.

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.
Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

PH

Growing "snow drought" & Why the "weather dice" are loaded for warmth

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Snow, Winter 2011-12

14.9" snowfall season to date at MSP Airport

35.5" average winter snowfall to date in the metro

42% of average snowfall so far this winter

60.9" snowfall last winter by this date!

.25" total GFS model output precip total next 16 days
(Would be 2.5" of snow at a 10:1 ratio)

15 USA cities reporting above average snowfall so far this winter

155 USA cities reporting below average snowfall so far this winter!

"Expect the unprecedented" Wunderground's Jeff Masters on climate trends

"The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day." From Wunderground. Image credit: NASA.

Finally, winter?

Well at least it feels like winter in Minnesota and the Midwest today. Our lawns and fields may look brown, but the February-like chill in the air is real today.

A respectably chilly air mass has settled in, and the overall pattern looks more like winter the next two weeks.

Arctic front ahead:

Temps will moderate again by Thursday, but a reinforcing shot of cold air is just 36-48 hours away. The next front is arctic in origin, and will push south through Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday.

This stronger brand of cold will get you attention Friday & Saturday. Overnight lows will dip to near 0 in the metro, with temps well below zero in northern Minnesota.

Daytime highs will struggle to make the teens Friday & Saturday.

Another warm up in sight?

Looking down the road there are now signs of another warm up in about 2 weeks. The GFS is hinting at 40s again around Feb 23rd-24th. The AO, which has controlled our weather so far this winter, has recently gone negative. There are signs of a shift back to a positive AO, and that could mean milder air again in about 2 weeks.

There are also some signs we may turn wetter about then...

Stay tuned on that one.

Growing snow drought.

Our 14.9" season snowfall so far in the metro is just 42% of average so far this season. Last winter's "Domebuster" storm dumped 17.1" on the metro...more than all of our snow combined this season in a single storm!

Here are some other season to date snowfall totals around the region.

Sioux Falls 8.7"
Grand Forks 13.7"
St. Cloud 16.2"
Rochester 16.7"
Duluth 16.9"
International Falls 32.1"

The snow drought includes much of the northern USA. You can see how little snow has fallen compared to last winter through mid-January on the graph below.

The "snow drought" is good news for cash strapped city snow plow budgets after last winter's snow blitz.

With little snow in the forecast the next 2 weeks, it looks like Minnesota's snow drought will continue to grow. Right now (with plenty of snow potential ahead thorugh March) this is the 2nd lowest snowfall total on record for the Twin Cities.

If we manage to get theough the season with less than an additional 7.6" this will be one of the 10 least snowy winters on record.

We'll see about that.

Changing weather patterns: Are the "weather dice" loaded in favor of warmth?

As I posted yesterday, weather patterns in the last 2 years look so out of place form what I've seen since I started looking at daily weather maps about 25 years ago.

Apparently I am not alone in this observation.

One of the nation's top tropical weather experts and climate observers is Jeff Masters with Wundergound. In a recent interview, Jeff gives the best description of why the dice are loaded in favor of warmer weather that I have ever heard.

I don't normally quote so extensively from weather other blogs, but this is just too good not to share with MPR listeners and Updraft readers.

Here are some of Jeff's extremely lucid and insightful comments.

Christine Shearer: How do you think about the relationship between climate, climate change, and daily weather?

Jeff Masters: "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to notice the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to notice climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible. If you want a longer explanation, think of the weather as a game of dice like craps or backgammon, where Mother Nature rolls two six-sided dice to decide the day's weather. There are 36 possible combinations of the two dice, and rolls can range from two to twelve. Most often, an ordinary roll like six, seven, or eight comes up; seven is the most common, with a 6 in 36 probability. Rolls of six and eight are only slightly less common, coming up with a 5 in 36 probability. These rolls of the "weather dice" correspond to typical summer weather-high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s on a nice summer day in New York City, for instance. It is much harder to roll an extreme event-snake eyes (corresponding to a record cold day, with a high near 65), or double sixes (a record warm day, with a high near 100.) These rolls only have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring-about 3%.

Now think about what happens if we take one of the six-sided "weather dice" and paint an extra spot on each side. The old die still rolls a one through six, but the new die now rolls a two through seven. The most likely roll increases to an eight, so we've shifted to a warmer climate, getting a typical summertime high of 78 degrees instead of 76. However, the increase in 78 degree days isn't that noticeable, since we've only increased the likelihood of getting an eight on our "weather dice" from 5 in 36 to 6 in 36. But now look at what has happened to extreme events as a result of loading our "weather dice" in favor of higher rolls. Whereas before we had only a 3% chance of rolling an twelve on our "weather dice"-an extreme heat day of 100 degrees in New York City-we've now tripled these chances to almost 9%, since there are three possible combinations of the dice that total twelve or higher. Moreover, it is no longer possible to roll snake eyes, corresponding to a record cold day, but it is now possible to roll a 13-a previously unprecedented weather event. Temperatures higher than 106, New York City's previous all-time high temperature, can now occur."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Janaury continues the warm trend in USA:

A follow up on my post from yesterday on the 4th warmst Janaury in the USA. Check out the image from NOAA below and you can see how warmth focused on the Midwest in Janaury.

Again, some insight from Wunderground.

"It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F)."

3rd least-snowy January

We're not the only ones looking at brown grass this winter. More from Wunderground.

"According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall."

Stay tuned & be warm!

PH

USA: 4th warmest January on record

Posted at 5:22 PM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

4th warmest January on record for the USA according to NOAA

7th warmest January in Minnesota according to Mark Seeley at UM (preliminary)

4th warmest start to meteorological winter (Dec & Jan) on record in the Twin Cities

Sub-zero again overnight in northern Minnesota

Near zero Friday & Saturday morning in the metro?

USA: 4th warmest January on record:

The data is in from NOAA for January, and this will go down as the 4th warmest year opener on record.

More details from NOAA:

"Climate Highlights -- January

•The United States Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) and Regional Climate Extremes Index (RCEI) are sensitive to extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, drought, and tropical cyclones on the national and regional scale, respectively. During January, the USCEI was above average, driven by a large extent in warm maximum temperatures. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent, which is the second highest value on record. Regionally, the West North Central, South, and West regions ranked 3rd or 4th highest for the extent of warm maximum temperature extremes."

Minnesota was "ground Zero" for January warmth. My MPR colleague and UM cimate guru Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates.

Topic: Preliminary climate summary for January 2012

"A very warm January prevailed across Minnesota. Many observers report mean monthly temperatures that are 7 to 9 degrees F warmer than average. Both Fargo-Moorhead and International Falls report their 5th warmest January in history, while on a statewide basis January 2012 appears to rank as the 7th warmest historically. Three new state record high temperatures were set for the month (on the 4th, 54 F at Marshall; on the 5th, 63 F at Marshall and Canby; and on the 10th, 59 F at Marshall). MSP International Airport reported only three mornings with below zero F temperatures, well below the average of eleven. The monthly temperature extremes were 63 degrees F at Marshall and Canby on the 5th, and -30 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the 20th. January was the 4th consecutive month with significantly above normal temperatures across the state, making the October (2011) through January (2012) period one of the warmest in state history. One final note on temperature: despite the dominance of warm temperatures, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on four dates during the month.

Soil frost depths increased during January, starting out at just a few inches below the soil surface and dropping to as deep as 20 to 30 inches in places where there is little snow cover."

February started mild in Minnesota. Temps at MSP Airport ran a full +13.4 degrees vs. average for the first 6 days!

Our cooler weather pattern looks to persist for the next two weeks of February. We should creep back closer to what passes for "average" in Minnesota these days.

Stay tuned, and stay warm!

PH

Broken Winter: Have weather patterns shifted beyond recognition?

Posted at 9:04 AM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

-20 at Ash Lake (northern St Louis County off Hwy 53) this morning
(Coldest spot in the nation! Thanks to Mark Seeley for this report)

-17 in Crane Lake, Minnesota this morning! (Near the Boundary Waters)

Near 0 in the metro by Saturday morning?

-20s in Europe cold wave

+50 50 degrees warmer in Alaska than this time last week

Cold air on the move around the northern hemisphere

More like winter than "spring" in Minnesota next 2 weeks

Rare tropical disturbance in Florida in February?

"Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events." -Jeff Masters describing radical changes in weather patterns over the past 2 years.

Cold Air on the move:

Northern Minnesota finally woke up to real winter this morning.

Sub-zero temps blanketed the northland, and a north wind is making it feel increasingly winter-like in the south too.

Crane Lake dipped to -17 this morning. Ash Lake to -20. That's pretty respectable for February.

The cold will linger today and tomorrow, before a brief milder spell Thursday precedes the next (more arctic) front Friday.

Yes, it's finally going to feel like winter around here by the weekend...even if the lack of snow means it still looks like early spring in much of southern Minnesota.

Shifting weather patterns:

A man walks past an ice-covered car Sunday on the frozen waterside promenade at Lake Geneva in Versoix, Switzerland.

Until 2-3 weeks ago, the cold air had been mostly bottled up around the poles and in Alaska. That's changing.

A huge arctic high pressure dome has moved into Europe bringing the coldest weather in 15 years and record snows to some areas.

Cold is also moving into the lower 48 United States this week, and it looks like it may hang around for a couple of weeks.

The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12 appears to be "fixed" in Minnesota, at least for now. February may end up being the coldest month overall this winter in Minnesota.

Is this the new normal?

The incredible record and highly unusual weather patterns of the past 2 years are causing some meteorologists (including me) to ask if a bigger shift has occurred. The weather maps we're looking at just don't seem to fit seasonal pattern we studied in school and have observed over the past 25 years.

When you look at weather maps everyday for decades there are seasonal patterns that evolve. Those patterns just don't seem to fit anymore.

Over the past two years we've seen several events that are so out of place compared to "normal" that it makes us wonder if the overall climate has shifted so much that we don't recognize what we're looking at anymore.

Consder these events of just the past two years.

-Tornado alley shifted north in 2010, Minnesota lead the nation in tornadoes in 2010

-A record number of "Billion Dollar Weather Disasters" in 2011

-Long standing all time heat records broken in many countries worldwide

-The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12

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-A rare tropical weather disturbance in Florida in February

These events are causing many of us, like Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, to ask if we're witnessing climate shifts unlike anything we've seen before.

"I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?"

It's a great question.

I can tell you this for sure. The weather maps I'm looking at in the past two years bear little resemblance to what I've seen over the past 25 years of watching daily weather patterns.

Forecasting the weather for Minnesota these days is like forecasting for some strange land I am not familiar with. It's like a roller coater ride I can't get off, and I'm not sure where it's headed. The thing is, we're all on this ride together...and I don't know where we're going to end up.

PH

Cold front arrives! Minnesota from space - crystal clear images

Posted at 5:57 PM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

46 degree high at MSP Airport Monday!

51 record high Monday at MSP (set in 1925)

26 "average" high Monday at MSP

+20 degrees vs. average Monday

Warmest day since January 10th
(When it reached a record 52 degrees!)

Cold front sweeps in
(20s in northern Minnesota Monday moving south)

2nd cold front due in late Thursday & Friday

Frozen lakes & lack of snow cover clearly visible on MODIS Terra images Monday

"Man Cave:" Ice fisherman pulls his truck up to his ice house on Lake Minnetonka Monday.
(Photo credit: Paul Huttner-MPR News)

Spring fever Monday!

Welcome to March 25th.

That's the date the average high reaches 46 degrees in the metro. We fast forwarded to spring once again Monday in southern Minnesota, even as a cold front stalled temps in the 20s up north.

Our 46 degree high at MSP was just 5 degrees short of another record. It was also the warmest day so far in February, in fact the warmest since our record breaking 52 on January 10th.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CST MON FEB 6 2012

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
DLH : DULUTH MN : 37 / 22 / 0.00/ 0/ 1
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 29 / 16 / T / T/ 6
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 46 / 25 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 0
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 41 / 27 / 0.00/ 0/ 0
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 43 / 17 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 1

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 37 / 19 /
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 38 / 24 /
HIB : HIBBING MN : 31 / 6 /
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 48 / 24 /

So far in February MSI is running a full 13 degrees above average!

Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka awaits warmer days.
(Notice how far below the dock the ice (water level) is!

February "reality check" on the way:

It's early, but 46 degrees could end up as the warmest temp this month.

The maps are looking decidedly colder the next 2-3 weeks. We're feeling the effects of cold front #1 now, and cold front #2 is on the way by Thursday night.

The next two weeks look seasonably cool and we should see temps fall closer to average. Look for mostly 20s and 30s the next two weeks. This may end up as the coldest month of winter! (But still near or above average overall)

On a clear day you can see...Lake Mille Lacs!

Check out the amazingly clear images today from NASA's MODIS Terra satellite.

The first high resolution image is a 1,000 meter res shot of Minnesota. Note the brown "snow free" areas in the southwest half of Minnesota. You can see the whiter semi snow covered areas up north.
(click to enlarge images)

Details become even more vivid on this 250 meter resolution shot of central Minnesota. Note the frozen and snow covered lakes, and the snow cover as you move north.

Unfrozen Lake Superior is clearly visible on the right hand side.

After 6 straight cloudy fog filled days it is nice to know Minnesota is still visible from orbit!

PH

Finally sunshine! Cold fronts; Will Feb be the coldest month of "winter?"

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Bright sunshine at the weather lab today!

40 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota today

Today - warmest day this week!

Cold front cuts through Minnesota from north to south today

Colder days ahead this week

2nd stronger "Arctic front" due late Thursday & Friday

Teens for highs by Friday?

Sub zero in northern Minnesota Friday & Saturday morning?

5:30pm sunset at MSP Wednesday
(Now light until nearly 6pm in the western sky on clear nights!)

1 hour 20 minutes of additional daylight since December solstice

3 minutes per day of additional daylight this week

12 days - pitchers & catchers report to Twins spring training in Fort Meyers!

A rare bright sunny morning at the weather lab Monday!

The sun:

After nearly a week shrouded in fog and low stratus, the sun is finally shining brightly at the weather lab this morning.

The welcome sunshine today will greet most of Minnesota, as the stubborn (and beautiful) fog bank slides east into Wisconsin.

With a milder air mass ahead of a cold front and increasingly strong February sunshine, temps will make a run at 40 today in southern Minnesota, including the metro.

Cold fronts ahead!

A cold front is cutting through Minnesota from north to south today.

A few flurries may accompany the front as it dives south. The front moved through northern Minnesota this morning, and will arrive in the metro and southern Minnesota late afternoon and evening.

Temps behind the front are about 10 degrees cooler, with 20s for highs Tuesday & Wednesday.

Arctic Front later this week!

A colder arctic air mass will sag south by Friday. It looks like a glancing blow of cold air fr about 48 hours for Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

Highs may struggle to get out of the teens both Friday and Staurday, with some sub-zero lows in northern Minnesota. The usual cold suspects like Embarrass and Ely may boast some double digit sub zero lows Friday and Saturday morning.

February 2012: The coldest month of this winter?

After the 4th warmest December & January period on record in the Twin Cities, it looks like we'll finally get one month closer to "average" in February.

Looking at the medium range maps (through February 22nd) the overall pattern looks decidedly colder. Temps may run near or slightly below average the next two weeks.

This should mean that February will end up as the "coldest" month of this meteorological winter. (Dec-Feb)

That may be good news for those who want an early spring. We usually need to "drain" the cold air from the northern latitudes in February and early March to allow things to warm up on schedule in Minnesota. If the cold air lingers up north, it can take a while for it to ooze south in March & April.

It's too early to say for sure what spring may be like this year in Minnesota. The one thing we really need is above average rainfall during April and May to try and stave off the growing drought.

If we stay dry in spring, then severe drought is going to quickly become the major weather story of spring 2012.

Snow chances increase next week?

If the maps verify, our northwest wind flow in the upper atmosphere next week will bring a family of Clippers sailing south toward Minnesota. This could mean 2-3 rounds of light snow next week.

The snows may not be heavy, but we could theoretically stack up a few inches of fresh snowfall (and gum up a few rush hours) in the next two weeks.

Stay tuned.

Brighter days ahead!

One thing we all have to look forward to is the now rapidly increasing daylight in Minnesota. You can already sense the noticeably longer days.

We've gained a full 1 hour & 20 minutes of daylight since the December solstice. We're now gaining a full 3 minutes per day, and 21 minutes per week.

The higher February sun angle means it's tougher to keep any snow cover around too, even on colder days.

Enjoy the sun!

PH

Beautiful weekend frost; Cold fronts ahead this week

Posted at 12:03 AM on February 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Frost, Winter 2011-12

Just a little something to get you started early Monday.

Our stubborn weekend fog left a prize. This was one of the most beautiful weekends of "hoar frost" and "advection frost" in recent memory.

Morning hoarfrost in Highland Park.
(Photo by Greg Johnson)

More soon!

PH

Beautiful weekend frost; Cold fronts ahead this week

Posted at 12:03 AM on February 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Frost, Winter 2011-12

Just a little something to get you started early Monday.

Our stubborn weekend fog left a prize. This was one of the most beautiful weekends of "hoar frost" and "advection frost" in recent memory.

Morning hoarfrost in Highland Park.
(Photo by Greg Johnson)

More soon!

PH

Stubborn fog hangs tough; Denver blizzard; Chicago 1 year later

Posted at 5:35 PM on February 3, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

54 straight hours of fog reported at MSP Airport

Clouds hang tough this weekend

3 feet of snow west of Denver!

Blizzard conditions in and around Denver metro Friday

21.2" one year ago in Chicago's "Groundhog Day Blizzard"

0" snow depth at Chicago's O'Hare Airport today

"Fog-uary"

That bright yellow thing you see in the sky this weekend is called "the sun."

After 54 straight hours of fog in the metro, it may take a while for you to remember.

A persistent temperature inversion about 2,000 feet above the ground trapped moisture from snow melt and brewed up our stubborn fog layer this week. Light winds were not enough to disperse the fog bank, and gray was the weather color of choice this week.

The inversion also trapped polutants near the ground, and spiked particulate readings inthe metro the past few days into the "moderate" range. AQI readings surged this week.

Fog is common during the "fog & low stratus season" in Minnesota, but this winter has been exceptionally sunny so far. The lack of snow cover means there is no additional moisture to melt into the atmosphere on mild days, and fog has been relatively rare overall.

Sunshine Alert!

Light northerly winds should finally be enough to break up the fog this weekend. Saturday may still dawn a little gray, but the sun should emerge as the day wears on. Sunday looks like the sunnier day this weekend.

Temps respond:

As the sun comes out, temps should respond accordingly. Highs should once again crack 40 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota. A few eager bank thermometers may flash as high as 45 this weekend in the metro!

With just a trace of snowfall now at MSP Airport, what little snow cover remains in southern Minnesota should be history by late Sunday.

Major Denver Blizzard: Up to 3 feet in the mountains!

Speaking of snow, they got whacked in Denver Friday.

Unlike the "Snowmageddons" and "Snowpocalypses" of last winter, Blizzards have been rare this winter. Tell that to the folks in Colorado who are digging out from as much as 3 FEET of snow this weekend.

The storm has dumped about a foot in metro Denver, and as much as 3 feet in the mountains just west of Boulder!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
219 PM MST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W CONIFER 39.51N 105.36W
02/03/2012 M31.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.11N 105.44W
02/03/2012 M35.1 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM SNOW STERLING 40.65N 103.20W
02/03/2012 M5.0 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0143 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SW AURORA 39.66N 104.77W
02/03/2012 E12.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0115 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 E IDAHO SPRINGS 39.74N 105.49W
02/03/2012 M10.5 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 W WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.14W
02/03/2012 M12.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N CASTLE ROCK 39.44N 104.85W
02/03/2012 M12.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW DENVER 39.77N 104.87W
02/03/2012 M11.0 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

The winter storm is hammering Nebraska and parts of Iowa this weekend, but fading as it moves east. It will pass south of Minnesota and weaken considerably as it slides south Chicago.

Last winter this same storm track would have dumped heavy snow from Denver through Des Moines, the Quad Cities into Chicago, & Indy for Super Bowl Sunday. Not this year. The lack of cold arctic air means the storm can't spin up and maintain strength.

Several thousand fans getting to & from Super Bowl XLVI in Indy are happy about that!

Chicago: 1 year after

A year ago on Feb. 2, 2011, hundreds of cars were stranded on Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, Ill., seen at left. The same stretch is seen on Wednesday.
(Image credit: Kiichiro Sato/AP via MSNBC)

1 year ago, Chicago was digging out from the infamous "Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011." The Chicago NWS has a great write up of the blizzard here.

This year it looks like spring in the Windy City.

I have covered many storms along Chicago's Lakefront during my WGN-TV days, but I've never seen anything like the snowpacolypse that slammed Chicago last winter.

The storm was the 3rd biggest snowfall on record at O'Hare Airport.

Hundreds of motorists had no chance as nearly 2 feet of snow and 70 mph winds blasted city streets and "The Drive" with impassable, vehicle eating drifts.

This winter big storms have been hard to find. That's something may Chicagoans may be thankful for this weekend.

The "Unwinter" of 2011-'12:

MSNBC has the story.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Have a great weekend!

PH

Apocalyptic Winter Forecasts Bust: 4th warmest winter so far

Posted at 6:32 PM on February 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

4th warmest winter on record so far at MSP Airport

8th warmest January at MSP Airport

+7.7 degrees in January at MSP Airport

36+ straight hours (and counting) of fog reported at MSP Airport

Sunshine likely returns this weekend!

40 possible again this weekend in much of southern Minnesota

4th warmest winter so far & 8th warmest January in the metro!

Winter Forecasts: A major bust in 2011-'12

Remember this?

AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One

(Images from Accuweather.com)

And this?

And this?

"AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."

However, for the worst of winter's cold alone, the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team points to Minneapolis."

And finally this?

Worst of This Winter's Cold Aimed at Minneapolis

"As a Minneapolis native, I know winters are brutal for the Twin Cities with days on end of subzero temperatures and horrendous wind chills. Unfortunately for my fellow Minnesotans, the cold this year could be especially awful.

While the Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting slightly above-normal snowfall this season, their projected amount of 56 inches is considerably less than last year's 87 inches."

Here's what really happened so far 2/3 of the way through meteorological winter in the Twin Cities: (Data from Minnesota Climate Working Group)

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

"The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on.

The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees."

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

As for snowfall, here's where we stand as of Feb 2nd:

14.9" so far season to date at MSP Airport
-19.2" vs. average
60.4" last year by this date

To be fair, Accuweather was not the only one calling for a colder than average winter this year in Minnesota. NOAA and the StarTribune also called for a colder than average winter in Minnesota.

Even though NOAA's outlook for Minnesota was too cold, they absolutely nailed the possibility of the AO throwing a wild card into winter predictions.

And though the StarTribune called for a very cold winter (-3 degrees vs. average) in Minnesota, it wasn't issued with notions of gospel like certainty.

Though my MPR winter outlook did not buy into the notion of a bitterly cold winter this year...to be fair my "near average" winter prediction and was still too cold. But I did accurately point out the possibility that this could be a milder than average winter continuing the trends we have seen in the past decade.

From October 26th Updraft post:

Decadal Trends: Our changing winter climate?

"Juxtaposed over the technical and dynamic factors that may control winter weather are so called decadal trends, which lean strongly in favor of milder winters with less snowfall for Minnesota.

Trend for 2011-'12: Increased odds for a milder winter with less snow than 2010-'11"

So what's my point?

The lesson here in my view is that nobody is that good with seasonal forecasts that we should be blaring headlines like Accuweather did for this winter.

"AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One"

and

"Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes"

The smug "air of certainty" with which Accuweather throws headlines and apocalyptic graphics out there is just plain irresponsible. The state of the science of long range forecasting does not support such certainty when issuing forecasts, and they know it.

And these are the guys who want to privatize most weather forecasting services and products which are freely available from NOAA.

Fog hangs tough into Friday:

Look for another foggy start Friday. Visibilities may again drop below 1/4 mile in thick for into Friday morning. Dense Fog Advisories have been posted until 10 am Friday morning.

Sunnier weekend?

Drier breezes this weekend should break up the fog, and return sunshine to most of Minnesota. Look for highs to again approach 40 degrees this weekend.

It's had to call it "ice fishing" this year. Slush fishing anyone?

PH

Foggy Groundhog in metro; sun returns to most of MN today!

Posted at 8:55 AM on February 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Shadow according to Punxutawney Phil in Gobbler's Knob, PA

6 more weeks of "winter?"

39% accuracy for Phil over the last 100+ years

No shadow in the metro this morning

Big snow developing in Nebraska & Iowa next 48 hours

Mild February? NOAA's CPC thinks so

Onward through the fog!

Welcome to London, with partially frozen lakes.

The thick fog bank hung tough for a second morning in the metro and eastern Minnesota, while southwest Minnesota basks in clear skies and sunshine.

The fog may finally lift in most areas today, and temps should respond accordingly.

Fog from snow melt is one forecast "fly in the ointment" we haven't had to deal with much in Minnesota this winter.

It goes like this:

1) Warmth melts snow

2) Snow melt adds moisture to air

3) Moisture creates fog

4) Fog blocks sun

5) Temps stay cooler

The best "defense" against winter fog is wind. Winds will pick up in Minnesota this weekend, and some of the fog should burn off as today wears on.

It's Groundhog Day!

It has to be one of the best movies ever made. Not high art maybe, but really entertaining.

The opening scenes from Groundhog Day where Bill Murray is skeptical (okay cynical) about the whole idea of Groundhog Day could have been filmed in one of many TV weather offices in the USA.

This openeing scene was actually shot at WGN-TV in Chicago. I worked on this same weather set for two years.

"You're kidding me! Do I really have to do this stupid live shot again? For a little rodent?"

Of course the reality is we embrace the idea, corny as it is. Even though the Groundhog Punxutawney Phil has an accuracy rate of just 39%, we still love him. Right?

And who among us hasn't felt like doing this when the alarm goes off in the morning?

I can tell you this for sure; "Weather Lab Willie" didn't see his shadow this morning. All signs (and the maps) say that spring is right around the corner at the weather lab.

Keeping an eye on snow to the south:

Two places that will see a wintery relapse soon are Nebraska and Iowa.

A winter storm is winding up to the south and it should dump heavy snow.

If you are heading south along I-35 into Iowa, expect heavy snow and wintery weather!

PH

"Fog Front"; Dense Fog Advisory; Foggy, icy AM commute

Posted at 9:06 PM on February 1, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

"Fog front" shrouds eastern MN in low clouds & fog

Near Zero visibiity at times into Thursday morning!

Dense fog advisory posted for most of eastern Minnesota until 10 am Thursday

Bright sun in western Minnesota Wednesday!

50s again in Ortonville, Pipestone & Marshall Wednesday

3rd least snow on record in USA in January

19% of the lower 48 USA states covered in snow

52% snow covered last year on this date!

6"-12"+ snowfall possible in parts of Nebraska and Iowa by Saturday

Foggy Front:

Dense fog advisory thorugh 10 am Thursday

The fog hung tough in eastern Minnesota including the metro Wednesday. Visibilities are below 1/4 mile again overnight into Thursday morning before a clearing trend kicks in.

The definite western edge of the fog bank from near Albert Lea to Willmar created a "pseudo warm front" in western Minnesota Monday. To the east of that front, moisture from snow melt saturated the air and thick fog and low 30s in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

To the west, drier air and bright sunshine boosted temps on snow free ground into the 50s at Ortonville and Marshall!

USA January snow drought:

Burnsville resident Dale Vaillancourt skis the 2.5 kilometer man-made snow loop at Wirth Winter Recreation Area Monday, Jan. 9, 2012 in Minneapolis. The park is unseasonably snow-free, except for the ski trail groomed with man-made snow.
(MPR File Photo/Jennifer Simonson)

It's not just "Snowless in St. Paul" this winter.

Last winter snow coevred over half the USA on this date. This year? A paltry 19%.

Seth Borenstein from Associated Press has the story.

"Washington (AP) -- Snow has gone missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it's not just snow. It's practically the season that's gone AWOL.

"I am disgusted that golfers are golfing on my cross-country ski course," said New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson, director of the Global Snow Lab."

Snow storm developing south; another miss for Minnesota?

Fire up the snow blowers in Nebraska and Iowa....but it looks like most of Minnesota may once again escape a wintery smack as we approach this weekend.

A major winter storm may dump 6" to 12" snows in Nebraska and Iowa Friday & Saturday. It looks like the system will track south of Des Moines and Chicago. That track is just too far south to get snow in the metro and most of Minnesota. The southern tier of counties along I-90 may get clipped Saturday...stay tuned.

PH

"Febtober?" New month, same weather; AMS climate controversy?

Posted at 8:38 AM on February 1, 2012 by Paul Huttner (10 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter 2011-12

Dense fog advisories early Wednesday morning!

1/4 mile visibilities in some areas

40s again in southern Minnesota today!

54 record high at MSP today - we won't get there

Controversy? Group pressures AMS on climate change statement

Fog along I-35 at Co. Road 42 this morning

Dense AM fog gradually lifts:

Call it a "pea souper" or London fog. Either way much of Minnesota looks like the Moors from a Sherlock Holmes story this morning.

Visibilities are down to 1/4 mile in some areas and with temps below freezing...the fog is freezing on some roadways.

Tuesday's snow melt added moisture to the lower atmosphere...that helped the fog get thick today in places.

Be careful driving this morning! Use caution when driving into fog banks where visibility can suddenly drop to near zero.

February 1st: More like late March

New month, same mild weather. Our overall pattern is locked in a mild rut. Look for more highs in the low 40s today in southern Minnesota with 30s up north. Just in case you forgot, the average high at MSP for today is still just 25 degrees! And that's after adjusting for the new (milder) 30 year averages.

Get used to it. The brand new CPC 30 day outlooks favor above average temps again for Minnesota.

Warning: AMS climate controversy ahead?

This one is going to get interesting.

A group called Forecast the Facts is on a campaign to get the AMS to draft a stronger statement on climate change. The group attended last week's AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans. AMS is due to update its policy statement on climate change, and Forecast the Facts wants them to adopt a stronger statement, and encourage TV meteorologists to focus more on educating viewers on climate change.

From the Forecast the Facts website:

"I urge the AMS Council to immediately pass a new information statement that reflects the widespread scientific consensus that climate change is increasingly impacting our planet, and then vigorously promote that statement to AMS members."

and this...

About Forecast the Facts

"Intense droughts, fierce storms, increased flooding. Scientists have been predicting for years that human-induced climate change would lead to a future of increasingly dangerous extreme weather events. That future is now upon us.

The weather report never mattered so much."

And a press release...

"San Francisco, CA - A new campaign, Forecast the Facts (www.forecastthefacts.org), launches Sunday to pressure TV meteorologists to inform their viewers about climate change. The launch coincides with the kick-off of the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) annual meeting in New Orleans, LA.

Recent increases in extreme weather have added further impetus for meteorologists to report on climate change. In 2011, the United States experienced a record twelve "billion-dollar" extreme weather events, including flooding from Hurricane Irene, unprecedented tornadoes in the Midwest, and crippling droughts and wildfires in the Southwest. Most scientists believe that climate change exacerbates extreme weather, a conclusion affirmed by the International Panel on Climate Change's November 2011 report on the subject."

One of the most controversial tactics FTF is using is to effectively "out" TV meteorologists on their site who don't believe in human driven climate change.
(Also known as Anthropogenic Global Warming or AGW)

This has stirred some strong discussion in forecast circles, and will no doubt get hotter before it gets cooler.

What do you think? Should AMS draft a stronger statement on climate change? And should TV meteorologists make greater efforts to include credible climate change news and studies in weather reports?

Stay tuned for more on this one...

PH

9th warmest January? No big storms through Valentine's Day?

Posted at 4:52 PM on January 31, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

45 degrees in the metro Tuesday!
(Just 1 shy of the record of 46 degrees)

+ 7.5 degrees vs. average at MSP for January
(pending final numbers)

Warmest January since 2006
(which was the warmest on record)

9th warmest January at MSP?
(Pending final numbers Wednesday)

6th warmest January in Duluth?
(Again, pending final numbers Wednesday)

90% of the Lower 48 States warmer than average in January 2012

0" to a trace of snow now in most of southern Minnesota

4" to 12" snow depth in much of northern Minnesota

16" Snow depth at Kabetogema Lake in far northern Minnesota!

.04" Total precipitation at MSP through Feb 16th? (12Z GFS model output)

18 days Pitchers and catchers report to Twins Spring Training in Fort Meyers on February 18th

"June-uary" is one for the record books:

January 2012 goes into the record books in Minnesota. According to Mark Seeley, this will likely go down as the 7th warmest January statewide. This will be the warmest January since 2006 in Minnesota, which was the warmest on record.

This will go down as another "top 10 warmest" month again in Minnesota. Our warm streak (and drought) is now 7 months deep.

Temperatures this month have run a full 5 to 9 degrees above average in Minnesota!

Just one year ago, ice dams as big as small cars sat on rooftops in Minnesota. Today you're lucky to find an inch of snow in southern Minnesota, but there is decent snow cover up north.

February: The drought continues?

The medium range maps don't look good for snow lovers as we head into February.

The storm track stays south of Minnesota, and not all that active anyway. Our mild westerly Pacific extended "Indian Summer" pattern looks like it will hold through Valentine's Day.

Tuesday morning's GFS model run is printing out a paltry .04" of precip through February 16th! The GFS also advertises several more days at or above 40 degrees in the next two weeks.

Unreal.

Broken Winter:

The overall northern hemispheric air flow is about as close to "broken" as I have seen it in winter. Yes, there's plenty of cold air in Alaska. But there appears to be no mechanism to send it surging south this year.

We've talked about the strong positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) this winter, which tends to keep the cold bottled up near the Arctic Circle. Even though the AO has gone negative in the past weeks, the cold air has so far failed to come south in any sustained way.

Who knows, there is still a chance that cold may come south in late February and March, and still a chance for a snowy pattern to develop before we can totally write off winter. But the odds are getting slimmer with each passing week.

Last year's 86.6" snow blitz was the 4th snowiest on record in the Metro. This winter we've scraped together just 14.9" so far. If we somehow managed to skate by with under 7.5" the rest of the season, we could go from the 4th snowiest to one of the top 10 "least snowy" winters in back to back years.

At this point I'd say we're looking at one of the shortest, mildest, and "least snowy" winters in Minnesota history.

Stay tuned!

PH

"June-uary" goes out like a lamb

Posted at 11:03 PM on January 30, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

"June-uary" 31st today - January goes out like a lamb

44 degrees at MSP Airport Monday
(Just 4 shy of the record high of 48 degrees set in 1989)

25 average high for January 30th

+19 degrees vs. average

43 forecast again Tuesday in the metro

90% of the USA warmer than average in January!

Say goodbye to "June-uary" 2012:

It's been remarkably warm across the lower 48 this month, not just in Minnesota and the Midwest. Details from NBC's Brian Williams and The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Meanwhile in Alaska:

Weather Underground image from Fairbanks, AK.
(Image credit: wunderphotographer TerezkaSunshine.)

Details from the Weather Underground.

All-time U.S. low temperature record threatened?

"The coldest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. was a -80°F (-62.2°C) reading from Prospect Creek, AK (about 180 miles north of Fairbanks) on January 23, 1971. A weather station just a few miles from Prospect Creek, the Jim River DOT site, appears to have recorded a low temperature between -78°F and -79°F Saturday morning (January 28, 2012), shortly before the weather station lost power. Keeping the power going at -70 is very tough, and it is not a surprise to see that the station lost power during this extraordinary cold snap. Power just returned this morning to the site, where the temperature was -66°F at 7 am AKST. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt is corresponding with Alaska's state climatologist to get more information on whether the data during the power outage will be recoverable, and how reliable these near-record low temperature might be."

PH

Warm Streak: Another "Top 10 warmest" month; Debunking "Global Cooling"

Posted at 9:38 AM on January 30, 2012 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+7.1 degrees vs. average- January temps at MSP Airport

8th warmest January on record for the metro? (Pending final numbers)

4th straight "top 13 warmest month" in metro and much of Minnesota

40 today and tomorrow in the metro and southern Minnesota

+15 degrees vs. average to close January

+1 hour of daylight gained since December 21st!

2005 & 2010 tie for the warmest years on record globally

2005-2010 Deepest "solar minimum" in nearly a century

Warm Streak: Another month, another record:

It's hard to find winter this year in Minnesota and most of the USA.

With temps running a good +7 to +8 degrees vs. average in most of Minnesota, it looks like this will come in as the 7th or 8th warmest January on record once final numbers are tallied.

The magnitude of our current warm streak may be unprecedented. January now marks the 4th straight month of "top 13 warmest" temps in the long term (140 year) record in the metro and much of Minnesota.

-October 11th warmest on record
-November 9th warmest on record
-December 13th warmest on record
-January 7th or 8th warmest on record? (pending final numbers)

This appears to be the first time with 4 straight "top 13 warmest" months in the metro in 25 years, since February to June 1987!

USA too!

In fact this has been a very warm month nationally. Here are some January temperature departures for a number of U.S. cities.

+4.3 degrees in New York City
+5.8 degrees in Atlanta
+5.1 degrees in Kansas City
+5.4 degrees in Chicago
+3.8 degrees in Dallas-Fort Worth
+2.7 degrees in Tucson
+3.5 degrees in Los Angeles
-2.7 degrees in Seattle

Our snowless winter continues inmuch of the USA.

At least it's cold in Alaska:

Here's a bulletin. It's bitterly cold in Alaska in January.

Actually it is. Temps hit -50 in Fairbanks Alaska for the first time in 6 years this past weekend. Temps plunged to -63 in Fort Yukon!

The cold has caused record early ice floes in the Bearing Sea.

Warning: "Global Cooling" hype ahead:

An article carried by UK's Daily Mail is attempting to grab some headlines this week.

The piece is full of holes, cherry picks bad data and appears to have a predisposed conclusion that is not supported by easily obtainable facts.

"The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century."

Really? Any specific data or credible peer reviwed science to support this claim?

The story goes on to claim a drop in solar activity will cause a huge decline in temperatures in the next few years.

The problem with the "solar variability" argument:

The sun's natural variability has been widely accounted for by climate scientists in climate change scenarios.

Some continue to argue that solar variability is driving our unprecedented shift to a warmer climate, but the evidence clearly shows the opposite.

Some facts:

-Each of the top 10 warmest years globally have occurred since 1998

-The last cooler than average year globally was 1976.

If the sun is driving climate shifts as some suggest, then why did we see the 2 hottest years on record globally during the deep solar minimum in 2005 & 2010?

It doesn't fit with claims that solar variability is the driving force behind climate change.

Clearly something much more powerful is overcoming any variability in the sun's output. 97% of climate scientists believe it is greenhouse gasses and the overwhelming evidence is on their side.

Even in a La Nina (cooler) year, 2011 still managed ot be the 11th hottest year in the global record. In fact 2011 was the hottest "La Nina" year on record!

From NOAA:

•La Niña, which is defined by cooler-than-normal waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the globe, was present during much of 2011. A relatively strong phase of La Niña opened the year, then dissipated in the spring before re-emerging in October and lasting through the end of the year. When compared to previous La Niña years, the 2011 global surface temperature was the warmest observed during such a year.

Here's a great resuorce for those who have questions about climate science.

What about 2012?

If you look at the continued record warmth of the past 15 years, consider a fading La Nina that may transition to El Nino and consider the warm start in Janaury this 2012 may end up (again) among the hottest years on record globally.

Stay tuned!

PH

Shortest winter ever? Colder Winter Carnival weekend; NWS at MOA

Posted at 4:55 PM on January 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

33 days - until meteorological spring begins (March 1st)

Above average CPC February outlook slightly favors a mild February overall for Minnesota

100 average number of days with at least 1" snow cover at MSP Airport in winter

22 number of days with 1" snow cover so far this winter at MSP

7th warmest January on record in Minnesota

+7.1 degrees vs. average at MSP in January

Sub zero? GFS still hinting at one more possible sub zero shot around Feb 10th?

Safe ice? Will ice ever be "safe" this year on Minnesota lakes?

Winter Carnival hits full stride this weekend!

NWS at MOA this weekend!

A quick and melting shot of 0.8" snow at the weather lab Friday

Shortest winter on record?

With our mild slow start to winter, the lack of snowfall and spring on the (admittedly distant) horizon, I got to thinking if this may be the shortest winter on record in Minnesota.

It might be hard to come up with one good metric that gauges the overall length of winter, but consider these facts.

-October to December was the 2nd warmest on record in the metro and much of Minnesota.

-The maps seem to favor below average snowfall through mid-February

In an average winter we see 100 days with at least 1" of snow cover in the metro. This year we have had only 22 days so far!

I am not aware of one metric that encompasses the combined "length" and "severity" of winter in Minnesota. But if you look at all the factors above, and if we end up above average in February with below average snowfall through March, you have to say this is one of if not the shortest winters on record in Minnesota.

Let's see what the last third of winter sends our way. If snow cover remains low, it may be an early spring this year!

Weekend chill:

A cold front has returned us to more winter like weather for this last weekend of Janaury.

Look for highs in the teens and 20s this weekend, with sub-zero temps up north at night and early morning.

Safe ice in 2012?

With cars and trucks crashing through unsafe ice this winter, you have to wonder if the ice will ever be truly "safe" this year.

A car through ice in Eagan this month. (Photo: Eagan Police)

We do have some cold spells ahead in the next two weeks, and that may help build some more ice. The problem is not always ice thickness, but stability.

The frequent thaws this winter have caused the ice structure to be weak and unstable. 10 inches of weak ice is not as strong as 10 inches of clear ice with good structure.

There have been numerous ice rescues this winter, and I doubt whether the ice will ever be truly safe in all areas. Again, the locals usually have the best info on changing ice conditions. Car and truck travel on ice this winter is truly risky and not advised in many areas.

Winter Carnival this weekend!

This should be a great weekend to get out and see the ice sculptures at the Winter Carnival in St. Paul! Here's more info on events this weekend.

NWS at MOA

If you want to meet our excellent local NWS team, this is the weekend to do it.

NWS will be present at the Mall of America this weekend. You can visit the booth and talk with local NWS staff. It's a great opportunity to meet some very dedicated professionals who work tirelessly to keep us informed about and safe from Minnesota's wacky weather.

"STAFFED BY METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXHIBIT WILL CONSIST OF A VARIETY OF INFORMATION, AND DISPLAYS THAT COVER WEATHER, WATER, AND CLIMATE MONITORING AND PREDICTION.

YOU WILL ALSO FIND AN INFORMATIONAL DISPLAY ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. OUR STAFF WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ABOUT THE BROADCAST, THE BENEFITS OF LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AND EVEN PROGRAM YOUR WEATHER RADIO IF YOU BRING IT ALONG (WITH BATTERIES)!"

Have a great weekend!

PH

Friday Clipper; Sky shows; Optimistic spring flood outlook released

Posted at 6:52 PM on January 26, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

40 degrees Thursday at MSP Airport

+16 degrees vs. average

7th day at or above 40 degrees in the metro this January!

.1" NAM model snowfall output Friday at MSP

3.5" GFS model snowfall output Friday at MSP

Coating to 2" weather Lab snowfall range forecast Friday for metro and much of southern Minnesota.

3 to 4 Hassle factor with Friday's snowfall on a scale of 1-10

Venus & moon dazzle in southwest evening sky

Possible aurora overnight in Minnesota

Colder weekend ahead

Below average flood risk this spring on Minnesota rivers

Minnesota: 7th mildest January on record?

Thursday's 40 degree high was the 7th day this month of 40+ degree warmth at MSP. I can't remember a January with that many 40 degree days.

Temps are running about 7 degrees above average for January. According to Mark Seeley, this will likely go down as the 7th warmest January on record in Minnesota.

This comes after the 2nd warmest October-December period in the metro.

The warm weather hits just keep on comin' in the "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12.

Friday Clipper: Major model bust potential

"Two weather forecast models walk into a bar...."

I digress. But I'm hoping the joke isn't on weather forecasters Friday. Two of our main forecast models, The NAM and GFS, are painting very different pictures for snowfall Friday.

The usually aggressive NAM minimizes any snow accumulation to well under an inch. The usually conservative GFS is hammering this system and cranking out 3.5" of snowfall at MSP.

Other models and ensemble products take the middle road, and I think they're onto something.

I am leaning toward a coating to 2" range for much of southern Minnesota Friday.

Snow should develop in western Minnesota by 6-7am Friday. The best window for snow in the metro appears to be between 9am and 3pm.

Lower "impact" snow?

This may end up being a lower impact snowfall that some of our previous systems this week.

-Midday timing means it will fall mostly between rush hours

-Snowfall rates may allow road chemicals to keep up

Bottom line? Expect some snowfall Friday, but it will hopefully be a manageable nuisance type snow.

Sky shows?

Check out the moon and Venus in the southwest evening sky as we head into the weekend.

Another solar burst may trigger more northern lights overnight. Best viewing is always away from city lights looking north. Timing of auroras is random.

NWS Spring Flood Outlook: Below average

We all may be breathing a sigh of relief after two crazy spring flood seasons n Minnesota.

Last falls drought and light winter snowfall have lead NWS forecasters to go easy with predictions for below average flood potential on Minnesota's river systems this spring.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM ST CLOUD TO RED WING
-MINNESOTA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
-ST CROIX RIVER
-CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

WITH RIVER LEVELS STEADILY FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY
OF FLOODING INTO APRIL.

WHILE PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS...BASED ON THE CURRENT SNOW
PACK AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...DO NOT PROJECT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THIS SPRING...MUCH OF THE SNOW SEASON STILL REMAINS.
HENCE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
ALSO...AS WITH EVERY SPRING MELT SEASON...ICE JAM
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE PROVIDED ON FEBRUARY 16 2012.

That's the good side of a drought.

The bad side? This could be one of the worst spring grassfire seasons in recent memory.

Let's hope timely spring rains can abate the fire threat and give farmers, lawns, lakes and rivers a shot of much needed moisture this spring!

PH

Thursday thaw; Friday clipper? Weird weather dreams

Posted at 8:54 AM on January 26, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Sun returns!

Thaw ahead today

38 - 40 degrees in much of southern Minnesota this afternoon

Friday clipper may bring some snow

Major model differences on Friday's system

Cooler weekend ahead

Weird weather dreams - Is this winter affecting our collective (and the weatherman's) psyche?

A rare bright sunny morning at the Weather Lab today!

The "thaw" is on:

It's good to see the sun this morning!

A west wind is blowing in and "mixing out" the fog & low level moisture from snow melt today. The result is more sunshine, and temps will respond accordingly.

Highs should easily reach the upper 30s today, and we may even see a few eager bank thermometers flashing 40 this afternoon.

The milder temps and ever increasing late January sun angle should help melt some snow today.

Friday Clipper? Models disagree

There's an old joke about 10 meteorologists in a room coming out with 10 different forecasts. I've been in that room before. Apparently most of the computer models have heard that joke.

Two of the more reliable models we look at (and there are 15 to 20 available) paint very different scenarios regarding a potential Alberta Clipper Friday.

The NAM says the system will zip through quickly Friday morning with little more than a dusting.

The GFS says it could snow for several hours and lay down as much as 2" of snow for the southern half of Minnesota.

At this point I'd say the truth may lie somewhere in between, but let's look at the model runs this morning and later today and see where it goes.

"So ya wanna be a weatherman huh?"

Colder weekend: A shot at 0 Sunday morning?

One thing all models agree on is it's going to get colder this weekend.

As arctic high pressure blows in Saturday, temps will drop below zero in northern Minnesota, and may approach zero in the metro early Sunday morning.

The cold air lasts about 36 hours, before the next warming trend kicks in and leads to another potential thaw early next week.

Weird winter weather dreams:

Okay this winter is getting really weird.

I had a vivid dream last night that I was doing a live weather hit (broadcast) from Lake Mille Lacs during an ice fishing tournament. There was open water, and I fell in and swam to shore. The water was almost warm, and some people helped me get out and get dry and said the water temp was 68 degrees, in January.

Sign of a twisted weather mind in a surreal winter? Yeah.

Who knows? But it's clear this winter is may end up being the mildest, shortest, most snow starved winter in my lifetime. So far anyway.

PH

Roller Coaster Forecast: Thaws & cold snaps ahead

Posted at 5:30 PM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+14.3 degrees vs. average at MSP January 1-11th

-0.2 degrees vs. average January 12-24th (near average)

+6.6 degrees in January overall so far at MSP Airport

8th consecutive month of above average warmth in Minnesota!

Temperature roller coaster ahead:

Get ready to ride the Minnesota Express.

We're moving into what meteorologists call a "high amplitude jet stream pattern" the next few weeks. The translation means big swings in temperature for Minnesota.

The jet stream has been mostly "zonal" this winter...meaning straight from east to west. It has also been displaced fairly far north for most of the winter, and that's why we've seen such mild temps.

Lately the jet has shown more valleys and ridges, and that's enabled colder air to come south fomr Canada. This is illustrated in temperature data for MSP so far in January.

The first 11 days of the month brought temps and incredible +14 degrees vs. average in the metro and most of Minnesota. Then the jet dipped south, and the season's first sub zero air arrived. Temps since then have run almost right on average overall.

The dipsy doodle jet stream pattern looks to be very "progressive" over the next two weeks. This should allow ridges to build up and mild Pacific air to return, punctuated by brief cold intrusions form Canada.

We get out first thaw this week, then a shot of colder air moves in this weekend. Temps will dip below zero up north this weekend, and it appears to me we'll have a shot at getting close to zero Sunday morning in the metro.

The next thaw rolls in next week, when temps could push 40 in southern Minnesota and possibly the metro by Tuesday. The following week could feature big temps swings between mild and colder air.

The one factor that's different this time is that we do have some snow cover. Snow melt adds moisture ot the lower atmosphere, and that can keep more clouds around...possibly fogging us up at night and limiting temp rises during the day.

Overall temps look to average out warmer over the next two weeks.

This would continue the now 8 month long trend of significantly above average temps in Minnesota.

Could that signal an early spring, and one of the mildest, shortest winters on record?

Stay tuned...

PH

"Thawmageddon" Ahead? Mild pattern returns next 2 weeks

Posted at 8:08 AM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+6.6 degrees January temps vs. average at MSP

Sun returns: Another "January Thaw: ahead!

Remember that old saying "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes?"

That's what we may be living today as AM snow gives way to mixed PM sunshine and milder temps. We should crack the thawing point by late afternoon.

Cooler weekend; but "Thawmageddon" ahead?

Another cold front will return us to realty with teens and 20s this weekend. After that, the maps look favorable for more thaws next week, including the potential for a really BIG one along about February 7-10th.

It's too early to be fully confident, but several model runs have hinted at a major thaw, with temps possibly returning to the 40s..and yes even 50 in western Minnesota if we lose enough snow.

What a weird winter...

Stay tuned!

PH

AM rush hour: Early snow showers enough for slick spots!

Posted at 4:25 AM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Weak upper wave causing snow showers early this morning

Light snow in much of southern Minnesota through 9am

Slick roads in places for AM rush in metro

Coating to 1" possible in metro and southern Minnesota

Sunshine returns by noon in most areas

30s thaw in progress later this afternoon!

MNDOT traffic cam shows snowy 494 at Baker Road in Minnetonka

-Latest Twin Cities radar

-MNDOT Traffic Cams and info

Upper air disturbance = some snow for AM rush:

It's weak, but it's enough to kick off a band of snow showers this morning. Look for light, to in some cases moderate snow showers this morning from St. Cloud through the metro to Rochester and Eau Claire.

You won't be counting inches, but even a coating to an inch can make for some slick spots today on your morning drive.

Sun returns: Another "January Thaw: ahead!

Remember that old saying "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes?"

That's what we may be living today as AM snow gives way to PM sunshine and milder temps. We should crack the thawing point by late afternoon.

Cooler weekend; but "Thawmageddon" ahead?

Another cold front will return us to realty with teens and 20s this weekend. After that, the maps look favorable for more thaws next week, including the potential for a really BIG one along about February 7-10th.

It's too early to be fully confident, but several model runs have hinted at a major thaw, with temps possibly returning to the 40s..and yes even 50 if we lose enough snow.

What a weird winter...

Stay tuned!

PH

Vivid northern lights dazzle Europe; Clouds limit MN viewing

Posted at 4:46 PM on January 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

A powerful CME struck earth as expected Tuesday morning around 9 am local time.

The resulting "solar shockwind" was measured by instruments in Norway.
(Images from spaceweather.com)

Rob Stammes

Jan. 24, 2012

Location: Laukvik Lofoten Norway.

Details:

"The expected solarwind cloud arrived on my instruments at 15.10 UTC today jan.24.A fantastic shockwave followed by a magnetic storm. Maybe a happy day for many aurora watchers."

The storm triggered a dazzling display of northern lights in Scandinavia.

Antti Pietikäinen

Jan. 24, 2012

Location: Muonio, Lapland, Finland

Details:

"We went out with snowmobiles to wait for the incoming storm in Muonio, West-Lapland, Finland. Show started slowly and after 15mins the landscape was green! This was the first time for Thomas to see the northern lights. And he was very happy."

Hinrich Baesemann

Jan. 24, 2011

Location: Tromso, northern Norway

Details:

"Expecting the arrival of the shockwave from the solar wind I was out on the coast of Tromso. The nice eddz apperared at about 18:30 UT, not as much as I expected, but I liked it."

The solar storm may produce northern lights tonight over Minnesota and northern North America, but viewing may be limited by clouds. As warmer air pushes in from the Pacific, there may also be a few snow showers overnight into early Wednesday.

There are some holes in the overcast over northern Minnesota, the Dakotas and northern Wisconsin. Viewers in those areas may catch a glimpse of the show if it kicks in.

Some viewing tips from spaceweather.com if you're lucky enough to get a clear spot.

CME IMPACT: "As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24th at approximately 1500 UT (10 am EST). A G1-class geomagnetic storm is in progress now, producing bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Sky watchers in Canada, Alaska, and states along the US-Canadian border should be alert for Northern Lights after nightfall. Tip: The hours around local midnight are often best for aurora sightings. Aurora alerts: text, voice."

Happy hunting!

PH

Woodbury takes the golden snow shovel with 3.8" snowfall

Posted at 4:43 PM on January 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

The final snow totals are in, and there are some happy kids sledding in Woodbury tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

0354 PM SNOW MAPLEWOOD 44.99N 93.02W
01/23/2012 M3.8 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

That's the highest total reported to the Twin Cities NWS so far from Monday mornings traffic snarling snow storm.

Here are the latest totals.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE JANUARY 22-23RD WINTER STORM...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1006 AM
3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM
3.40 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0252 PM
3.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1047 AM
3.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1205 PM
MEASURED AT THE PRISON.
3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 1241 PM
3.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0957 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0953 AM
3.00 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
3.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM
2.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0139 PM
2.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0821 AM
2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM
2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
2.40 RICE MN BENTON 1021 AM
2.40 NORTHFIELD MN RICE 1012 AM
2.30 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0112 PM
2.10 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1123 AM
2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
2.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0259 PM
2.00 8 NW MORA MN KANABEC 0252 PM
OCCURRED IN LAKE TOWNSHIP.
2.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1238 PM
REPORT RELAYED VIA WQOW.
2.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1204 PM
2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0956 AM
2.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0851 AM
2.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0811 AM
2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM
2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM
2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
2.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1210 PM
1.80 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1123 AM
1.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0800 AM
1.80 2 WNW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0805 AM
1.50 1 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM
1.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM
1.50 1 S BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
1.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
1.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
1.50 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM
1.30 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE MN FARIBAULT 0201 PM
1.30 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0856 AM
1.30 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
1.30 6 ESE DRESSER WI POLK 0700 AM
1.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0201 PM
1.20 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1210 PM
MEASURED AT WQOW TV.
1.20 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
1.10 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1204 PM
1.10 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM
1.00 BROOKLYN CENTER MN HENNEPIN 0203 PM
1.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0108 PM
1.00 3 N WATERTOWN MN WRIGHT 0844 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.00 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0700 AM
1.00 3 N CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0700 AM
1.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
0.80 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1205 PM

The highest totals landed from near Owatonna along I-35 into the east metro, where several convective type snow bands laid down some snow bursts.

The NWS map below shows totals through 7am, while snow was still ongoing and additional snow boosted totals.

It finally looks like winter at the weather lab, where the grass has disappeared!

PH

Snow tapers; Snowfall range 1" to 3.5"; Better PM rush hour!

Posted at 9:18 AM on January 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Update 9:30am:

Today proved once again it doesn't take a foot of snow to slow down rush hour. The AM rush hour lived up to the pre system billing. Reports of one hour commutes form Woodbury to downtown St. Paul...just a few miles away were the norm this morning.

Icy scene at Highway 212 & 494 in Eden Prairie

Snowfall reports so far (still coming in) with the system ranged between 1" and 3.5". The snowfall is widespread and snarled travel in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The timing of the snow came off about as expected, with most coming during the peak AM rush hour.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
911 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM
3.00 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
3.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM
2.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0821 AM
2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM
2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
2.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0851 AM
2.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0811 AM
2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM
2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM
2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
2.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM
2.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0800 AM
1.80 2 WNW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0805 AM
1.50 1 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM
1.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.50 1 S BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM
1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
1.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
1.50 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM
1.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
1.30 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0856 AM
1.30 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
1.30 6 ESE DRESSER WI POLK 0700 AM
1.20 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
1.10 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM
1.00 3 N WATERTOWN MN WRIGHT 0844 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
1.00 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0700 AM
1.00 3 N CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0700 AM
1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
0.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

The snow tapers from west to east, and a much better PM commute should follow.

PH

Update 8:10am:

Latets snowfall totals here. Totals with 2nd snow band moving ionto metro now approaching or exceeding 3" in some areas. Note MSP Airport report is over 2 hours old.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
801 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM
2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM
2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM
2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM
2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM
2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM
2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM
2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM
1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM
1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
0.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

Latest Twin Cities radar shows another band of snow still to move through metro. Expect another 1" in most areas, with snowfall tapering from west to east between 10am & noon.

Icy and snowy commute at I-94 & Hemlock Lane in Plymouth

Update 7:30am:

Snowy & slow Monday morning at I-94 & Johnson Parkway in St. Paul

Snow continues in most areas through this morning.

Mixed intensity snowfall with a few breaks in the snow

Slow traffic this morning in the metro

Very slippery - numerous "incidents" reported on MNDOT website

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time

844 Crash on Exit I-94 EB @ Snelling Ave Just cleared Mon @ 06:37
816 Crash on Mainline I-94 EB @ Zane Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:33
6211 Crash on Mainline I-35W NB @ 37th St Just cleared Mon @ 06:23
420 Crash on Exit I-494 EB @ Nicollet Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:49
716 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ White Bear Ave Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:31
418 Crash on Mainline I-494 EB @ 12th Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:23
326 Crash on Mainline U.S.169 NB @ T.H.7 Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 07:04

Snow coming down at I-94 & McKnight Road

Snowfall totals so far: (spotty reports in so far)

2.8" at Hutchinson
1" at MSP Airport
1.1" Redwood Falls
2" Red Wing
2.1" St. Cloud

Winter weather advisory continues until noon

-Latest Twin Cities radar

Expect snowfall of varying intensity through about 10-11am this morning before it ends from west to east! Most areas will see another 1" to 2" accumulation.

PH

***posted 10:30pm Sunday***

Low pressure tracking through eastern Wisconsin Monday

Snow likely in metro and eastern Minnesota between 3am and 11 am Monday

6am - 9am heaviest snowfall rates for MSP (at peak rush hour?)

1/2 mile visibility possible at snowfall peak between 6 am & 9 am Monday

3/4 inch per hour during AM rush?

2" to 4" snowfall range likely across metro by noon

6 to 7 hassle factor on a 1-10 scale Monday morning!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Bad Timing:

I know, just what you needed to start the week on your Monday morning commute. Monday's are hard enough already!

The most significant snowfall since New Year's Eve should hit the metro, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin right during rush hour Monday morning.

Winter weather advisories are flying for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

While this may not be a major winter storm, it does look significant...and the timing may elevate the system's impact.

Let's break down the system:

System & track:

Low pressure deepening over eastern Iowa will curve northeast through eastern Wisconsin Monday. While this is not an ideal track for heavy snow in Minnesota, it is close enough to produce snow.

Precip timing:

Light freezing rain and snow have been falling much of Sunday in most of Minnesota. As the low deepens overnight and early Monday, increased "forcing" and lift will increase precipitation rates. As colder air filters in, precip changes to all snow early Monday.

Snow intensity should increase in the metro and eastern Minnesota between 3am and 6am. It looks like snowfall intensity could peak in the metro between 6am and 9am. During this time we could see some moderate snow with 1/2 mile visibility.

1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow corresponds to roughly 3/4" per hour accumulation rates. If that happens, we could pick up a good 2" of snowfall between about 6am & 9am, right at the peak of morning rush.

Snowfall should quickly end from west to east late AM, and clear the metro between by around noon.

Snowfall totals:

Anything can happen with this and all storms, but at least the models have come a little closer into agreement as of late Sunday night.

My best forecast at this time is for a general range of 2" to 4" across the metro by noon Monday.

The best chance for 3" or 4" may be in the eastern metro...St. Paul & suburbs like Woodbury and Lake Elmo into western Wisconsin as the system has a little more time to wind up.

As is always the case, locally generated "random" convective type enhanced snowfall pockets may create highly variable local snow totals.

Up north too!

Duluth and northern Minnesota will get in on the action Monday.

Windy system

One feature of this system will be a brisk wind tending toward northwest as the day wears on. Winds should be gusting through the 15-25 mph range, and will cause blowing snow in open areas. Remember the concept of blowing snow? Yeah, I know it's been scarce in this "non winter" so far.

Bottom Line:

Unless the storm veers east at the last minute, expect snow and blowing snow Monday morning. Rush hour will be a challenge, plan on extra time Monday!

PH

Now: Freezing rain advisory; Monday: Snowy AM rush hour!

Posted at 1:33 PM on January 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Update 1:30pm Sunday:

Sunday late morning model runs still favor a shot of 2" to 4"+ range snowfall Monday morning between 3am and noon. Unless later model runs shift the system east, expect a snowy and slick AM rush hour Monday in the metro!

In the meantime a freezing rain advisory has been posted for most of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Icing may be light, but should cause a thin glaze ice layer that will make for slick roads & footing.

1205 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED ROADS...SIDEWALKS OR OTHER
SURFACES WILL BECOME COATED IN ICE AND SLIPPERY BY THE
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

One more major model run later tonight should firm up snowfall for Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

PH

***Posted 10:47pm Saturday***

Here's a quick update based on the late Saturday evening model runs.

In addition to the chance of ice and sleet Sunday, both the NAM & GFS models (and others) are ramping up the notion of a rapidly deepening low pressure system Sunday night and Monday.

If they're accurate, (and I'm leaning that way) this could produce a 6-12 hour burst of decent snowfall in eastern Minnesota (including the metro) between midnight and noon Monday.

Based on what I'm seeing tonight, I think we need to raise awareness about the potential for significant snow in the metro late Sunday night and Monday morning. We could see several inches of snowfall from the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin north along I-35 toward Duluth and the Iron Range.

The latest model runs wrap up a low pressure system in eastern Iowa Sunday, then move the deepening system north through central Wisconsin into Lake Superior Monday.

That is an excellent track for producing significant snowfall in eastern Minnesota.

If Saturday night's model runs hold that track and intensity, that could produce anywhere from 2" to 4"+ of snow in the Twin Cities between midnight and noon Monday.

As the storm intensifies and slows down over Lake Superior, it could dump heavier snowfall totals (6"+?) on the Iron Range and much of northeastern Minnesota including Ely the North Shore.

NAM model paints signficant snowfall potential from the metro north by noon Monday.

Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter weather situation!

PH

Wintry mixed bag of ice/sleet/snow Sunday into Monday

Posted at 5:40 PM on January 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Near freezing temps Sunday brings mixed precip types

Ice-sleet-snow all possible in Minnesota Sunday

Changing to all snow by Sunday night

1" to 2" snowfall likely for metro area by Monday morning

3" to 6" possible in parts of northern Minnesota by Monday morning

-Twin Cities NWS

-Duluth NWS

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

It looks like our next weather system will bring a mixed bag of wintery weather to Minnesota Sunday into early Monday.

Temps will warm to near the freezing point, and that will mean chances for ice, sleet and snow in southern Minnesota. It should be mostly snow for northern Minnesota.

Be prepared for icy roads and a wintery mix Sunday and Sunday night!

PH

Weekend split; Saturday sun/Sunday snow? All about snowflakes

Posted at 5:41 PM on January 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

0.9" snowfall Friday at MSP Airport

Near 0 early Saturday morning in metro

-10 to -20 in Grand Forks, Fargo. Bemidji. Brainerd, Grand Rapids, International Falls, Ely, Duluth & much of northern Minnesota Saturday morning

Teens in the metro Saturday

Low 30s by Sunday

Sunday snow likely (early range of 1" to 3" pending Saturday model runs)

Friday Clipper delivered as expected:

Well at least we finally got some snow in southern Minnesota!

Friday's clipper left a thin snowy coating in the metro, and a few inches in southern Minnesota.

NWS snow totals show a range of 0.8" (Chanhassen NWS) to 1.8"(Andover) in the metro.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

...SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE JANUARY 20TH STORM...

THE TOTALS ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0920 AM
4.20 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 1106 AM
4.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0920 AM
3.80 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0323 PM
3.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0106 PM
0.18 INCHES OF MOISTURE.
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1051 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1040 AM
3.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1032 AM
3.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
3.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0654 AM
2.80 NE FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0817 AM
2.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
2.00 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
1.90 1 ESE MILROY MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
1.80 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0323 PM
1.70 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
1.40 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0159 PM
1.30 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0107 PM
1.20 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0800 AM
1.00 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0310 PM
1.00 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0107 PM
1.00 WACONIA MN CARVER 1249 PM
1.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0719 AM
0.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.
0.80 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
0.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE PRISON.

All about snowflakes:

Speaking of snowflakes, if you've ever wondered about "stellar dendrites" and "hexagonal plates" check out one of the most fascinating resources I've ever seen.

Snowcrystals.com is the beautiful work of Caltech physicist and snowflake guru Kenneth G. Libbrecht. Ken is a North Dakota boy who grew up fascinated by snowflakes, and tuned it into a life's work.

I have interviewed Ken on Jet Streaming. His beautiful images and explanations are the stuff of atmospheric magic!

Classic January Saturday:

This is how January was meant to be in Minnesota. Hockey Day in Minnesota will feature great games and perfect pond hockey tourney weather on outdoor ice.

Sunshine, light morning winds and temps starting near zero and rising through the teens will make for fast ice and a good looking January Saturday! Winds will increase from the south later Saturday and Saturday night.

The southerly winds will pull up some milder air...and moisture for Sunday.

On track for Sunday snow:

A chink of that massive Seattle storm will break off and head toward Minnesota by Sunday.

At this early point, the system looks good for some snow in Minnesota.

It's still too early to pinpoint any snow totals, but the general notion of a broad band of 1" to 3" seems reasonable at this point. Some heavier totals may fall in northern Minnesota with this system.

Models suggest an early range of 1" to 3" Sunday in the metro.

We'll crunch the numbers this weekend before the snow flies at the Weather Lab and put some more solid totals out Saturday PM after a few more model runs.

Stay tuned!

PH

Friday AM snow totals are in: MSP .90" Fairmont 4.2" (Along I-90)

Posted at 2:49 PM on January 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Update on snow totals from Twin Cities NWS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
233 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

...SNOW AMOUNTS FROM JANUARY 20TH STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0920 AM
4.20 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 1106 AM
4.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0920 AM
3.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0106 PM
0.18 INCHES OF MOISTURE.
3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1051 AM
3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1040 AM
3.00 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 1032 AM
3.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
3.00 WSW ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0654 AM
2.80 NE FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM
2.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0817 AM
2.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
2.00 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
1.90 1 ESE MILROY MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
1.70 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM
1.40 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0159 PM
1.30 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0107 PM
1.20 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0800 AM
1.00 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0107 PM
1.00 WACONIA MN CARVER 1249 PM
1.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0719 AM
0.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.
0.80 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.
0.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1226 PM
MEASURED AT THE PRISON.

PH

Friday snow; Cold lingers thru Saturday; Snow & 30 Sunday?

Posted at 5:30 PM on January 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Clipper brings snowfall to southern Minnesota Friday

3" to 6" likely Redwood Falls, Mankato, Owatonna & I-90 corridor

Coating to 2" likely for most of the metro

Winter storm warnings posted for northern Iowa for up to 7" snowfall

Difficult travel Friday along I-35 south in southern Minnesota and into Iowa

2 sub zero days in the Twin Cities so far this winter (Jan 18th & 19th)

Cold lingers through Saturday Sub zero possible again Friday & Saturday morning

Temps moderate to near 30 by Sunday south, 20s (above) north

Wintery mix of snow sleet and freezing rain possible Sunday

Friday Clipper:

Our next weather tracks through southern Minnesota Friday. This system is focusing a dry powdery snowfall on the on southern half of Minnesota.

The Twin Cities lies in the northern part of the system and snow could impact morning rush in the metro.

The heaviest snowfall totals lay out along the I-90 corridor and into northern Iowa. If you're planning travel along I-35 into Iowa, expect plenty of snow!

Cold lingers into Saturday!

It may not be quite as cold as what we saw Thursday morning, but arctic air will linger in Minnesota into the first part of the weekend. We should see more sub-zero readings early Friday and Saturday.

Temps moderate Sunday:

Winds will begin to blow from the south Sunday. Temps will recover some, and moisture will stream north brining a wintery mix of precip.

It looks like mostly snow for northern Minnesota, but enough mild air may work into the lowest mile of the atmosphere that a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain may fall from the metro south.

Pond Hockey weekend:

You have to love the forecast this weekend for pond hockey in Minnesota. At least we're not dealing with 50 degrees and water on the ice!

If you've never seen it, I strongly encourage you to head out to lake Nokomis or Lake Minnetonka and check out some really great hockey as it was meant to be played in Minnesota.

Of all the things "invented" in Minnesota over the past decade, pond hockey tournaments have to be one of the best ideas in Minnesota history!

PH

-11 this morning: Models say -23 Feb 3rd; Friday snow ahead!

Posted at 9:54 AM on January 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

-11 at MSP Thursday morning (coldest so far this winter)

-16 Jan 21, 2011 (coldest temp at MSP last winter)

-23 GFS forecast for MSP February 3rd (06Z-midnight model run)

1st week of February may be the coldest week of winter

-26 at Fosston & Orr & Crane Lake & Babbitt this morning

-24 at Embarrass, International Falls, Cook this morning!

Coating to 2" possible snow range in metro Friday

3" to 6" possible along I-90 corridor and northern Iowa Friday

Weather drama at MSP as the clock struck midnight last night!

Details from the Twin Cities NWS:

The Twin Cities Tied a Record for the Latest Below Zero Temperature

"It is official... The Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport recorded their first below zero temperature shorrtly before midnight. The temperature dropped to -1 at 11:25 PM and stayed at -1 through midnight. Therefore, we tied the record for the latest "below zero temperature" set in 1889 and 2002. The official time of the low will be recorded as 11:59 PM, since the official time of the low is the latest time of occurence on a calendar day."

Coldest in nearly a year:

Now that was cold.

Finally some real winter weather in Minnesota. The -11 at MSP Thursday morning was the coldest temps in 11 months. We bottomed out at -11 on Feb 10th, 2011. It's also been almost exactly 1 year since we saw last winter's coldest temp of -16 at MSP on January 21st, 2011.

In case you were wondering our -11 this morning is not even close to today's record low of -34 set in 1970.

Northern Minnesota felt the chill to the tune of -20 to -25 this morning.

At least we're making some serious ice on Minnesota lakes today!

Winter's coldest air still ahead?

As I said earlier this week, it looks like this week's cold snap may not be the coldest air mass we see in Minnesota this winter.

There is still bitterly cold air trapped over Alaska, where temps have been consistently running -30 to -50 for weeks.

That air has to come south sooner or later and the GFS is showing signs that the first week of February may bring an even colder air mass south. The overnight (06z) run of the GFS cranks out a low temp of -23 on February 3rd for MSP. Ugh!

Let's see if that bitterly cold holds up over the next week or so.

We may see a brief thaw in between on January 26th & 27th.

Clipper Parade: Friday & Sunday

Latest indications are we could get clipped by the northern edge of Friday's clipper in the metro. The heaviest snow band still looks to be along I-90 where 3" to 6" could fall.

Latest model runs print out some light snow for the metro Friday.

The NAM is cranking out 1.1" of snowfall for MSP Friday. The GFS likes 1.6"

It looks like another N-S range across the metro with less snow north and more south. I want to see tonight's model runs, but at this point I'd say a range of a coating to 2" seems like the most likely outcome Friday.

Snow should begin in southwest Minnesota tonight, and move into the metro by rush hour Friday. Expect some slick roads Friday in southern Minnesota and the metro.

Sunday's system looks more widespread, and could deliver another couple of inches to much of Minnesota. There may be another chance of snow next Tuesday. Overal we may pick up several inches of snow in the next week!

NAM model snowfall output suggests several inches in the next 84 hours.

Stay tuned!

PH

Record dodged! -1 at 11:59PM! Clipper parade; Friday south-Sunday metro?

Posted at 8:06 AM on January 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Thursday morning Update: From Twin Cities NWS:

"The Twin Cities Tied a Record for the Latest Below Zero Temperature

It is official... The Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport recorded their first below zero temperature one minute before midnight. Therefore, we tied the record for the latest "below zero temperature" since 1889."

***Original post 11:54pm Wednesday***

0 temperature at MSP Airport at 11pm Wednesday!

-1 reported by NWS at MSP Airport at 11:53pm Wednesday!

26 degrees 6 hour temp drop at MSP between 5pm and 11 pm Wednesday

-10 air temp in the metro early Thursday morning

Coldest so far this winter

-23 GFS forecast low temp for 1st week of February!

On the edge of snow in the metro Friday

3" to 6" possible along I-90 corridor Friday

Plowable snow potential Sunday for much of Minnesota including
metro

Record averted but tied!?

Now that's a shame! It appears we came within 1 hour, or even a few short minutes of setting a new record for the latest sub-zero temp ever recorded at MSP Airport.

The official temps at MSP at 11pm was right at 0. As of this writing it appears we'll dip slightly below zero just before midnight, Wednesday January 18th. If verified that ties the record for the latest sub-zero temp at MSP on record.

C'mon! If we're that close we might as well set a new record. Let's see where we end up when NWS verifies.

Now that's a cold front!

Teps plunged 26 degrees at MSP and in much of Minnesota s the front roared through Wednesday night. The harsh winds stiffened flags and sent people scurrying to find cars and shelters Wednesday night.

Dangerously cold wind chills will be the rule Thursday.

Sign of the season, this was the first time this winter I've seen a tow truck staring a stalled car in the Lunds parking lot at Ridgedale Wednesday night.

Clipper Parade:

A fast moving northwest flow will send a series of Alberta Clipper toward Minnesota in the coming days.

Friday's system appears to be aimed at southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. The metro looks to be on the northern edge of the snow Friday. Early indications are that there may be little or no snow in the north metro, and some light accumulations south.

Heavy snow band in northern Iowa and along I-90 Friday?

A good 3" to 6" is looking more likely by the hour for the I-90 corridor towns of Worthington, Fairmont, Albert Lea and Rochester. Northern Iowa may see some 6"+ totals.

Plowable metro snow Sunday?

The second clipper on the horizon for Sunday seems to be aiming at a bigger area, including the metro. It's early, but the maps favor a north-south oriented "warm advection type" snowfall Sunday. Translation? It could snow for several hours and add up to a few inches Sunday.

There may be another potential system next Tuesday.

Stay tuned!

PH

Evening nowcast: Quick snowy burst; 1st metro sub zero by AM

Posted at 5:07 PM on January 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Evening Update:

An arctic front is plowing through southern Minnesota this evening. A quick shot of snow precedes the front, followed by a brisk northwest wind and falling temps.

The snow burst will lay down a quick coating to as much as an inch in the metro.

**Expect snowy roads for the tail end of rush hour and into this evening in the metro!**

Flakes fly at Baker Road and 494 in Minnetonka on MNDOT Cam

Snowy coating on MNDOT traffic cam on I-94 in the northwest metro.
(I-94 W Junction Co Rd 81)

As the snow band came through St. Cloud, it dropped a quick inch of snow in 30 minutes!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012

PICKED UP AN INCH OF SNOW IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Snow is also falling in most of northern Minnesota with the front and arctic air outbreak.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012

0400 PM SNOW 1 N PILLAGER 46.34N 94.48W
01/18/2012 M1.0 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

-Duluth radar loop

Prepare for a wintery evening with plunging temps and dangerous wind chills tonight!

PH

2 above at MSP this morning (coldest so far this winter)

3pm - 6pm Arctic front arrives in the metro (quick snow burst)

-6 forecast low Thursday morning at MSP

-10 in metro suburbs Thursday AM

-20 to -25 from Roseau to International Falls and Ely Thursday AM

January 19th, 2012 new record for latest sub zero temp at MSP if forecasts verify

Snow chance trending south Friday (metro on northern edge)

3" to 6" along I-90 corridor and in northern Iowa Friday?

Sunday snow chance for much of Minnesota

No major warm ups in sight next 16 days

29 to -7 GFS model forecast temp range at MSP next 16 days (06Z run)

Even colder arctic outbreak potential first week of February

Arctic Outbreak: Season's coldest air (so far) on the way

It's finally here.

A "for real" arctic front is moving into northwest Minnesota and will push southeast through the state by tonight. Behind the front, the season's coldest air mass will spill in from the Canadian Prairies.

Temperatures plunged to between -20 and -36 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba near Lake Winnipeg Wednesday morning.

By Thursday morning temps will plunge below zero in all of Minnesota.

Extreme cold warnings are flying for much of Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Another new record Thursday:

We bottomed out at 3 degrees Wednesday morning at MSP. That's the coldest day so far this winter season.

It looks almost certain that temps will dive below zero Thursday morning. I'm forecasting -6 for MSP Airport, with -10 or colder in some metro suburbs.

If we dip below zero Thursday (and not before midnight) we'll set a new record for the latest sub zero reading in the season at MSP Airport.

With arctic cold spilling south, it may be a race between midnight and zero in the metro!

Friday clipper trending south:

A clipper will sail through southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Friday. As is often the case with these systems, the progression of model runs is taking the system a little further south with each passing run.

The latest track trends put the metro on the northern edge of snow, with the highest accumulations along the I-90 corridor and into northern Iowa.

At this point it appears southern Minnesota and northern Iowa could get 3" to 6" of fresh snowfall, with the metro on the edge of lighter totals. There could be a wide "snowfall gradient" from nothing... to a few inches from north to south across the metro Friday.

Stay tuned, I'll nail down forecast metro snow totals Thursday.

Right now, Saturday looks cold and sunny with lows near 0 and highs around 10.

Sunday Clipper?

Our next chance of snowfall after Friday comes Sunday. GFS and NAM are advertising another would be clipper as slightly milder air (average) in the 20s pushes back in Sunday. Let's see how the models handle this one.

Extended outlook: Cold pattern persists-no major warm ups in sight

The medium range forecast models suggest that the cold will have some staying power over the next two weeks.

The GFS model is printing out a range of temperatures between 29 and -7 for MSP the next 16 days, with 4 mornings near or slightly below zero. We'll see. The GFS sometimes leans cold, but the overall pattern makes sense.

The GFS also suggests an outbreak of even colder arctic air coming south the first week of February. This also makes sense, since there is still -30 to -50 degree air in Alaska that will likely come south eventually.

This week may not be the coldest week of winter in Minnesota.

Stay tuned!

PH

Cold deepens; Friday snow chance trending south

Posted at 6:42 PM on January 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Arctic cold front sweeps south Wednesday

Snowy dusting possible with frontal passage

-6 forecast low temp in the metro Thursday morning

1st sub zero reading this winter?

January 18th - current latest sub zero on record at MSP

0 number of winters without a sub zero temperature in the metro

3" to 6" model snowfall range for southern Minnesota Friday

Weather forecasting is looking through the windshiled at what's ahead

Climate is what you see in the rearview mirror

"Information is not knowledge." - Albert Einstein

"Technology" is a fancy word for "tool."

The art of weather forecasting:

As we head into a potentially snowier weather pattern, I'm reminded and humbled that forecasting snowfall is among the most difficult forecasts a meteorologist has to make.

It's also one of may all time favorite things to do.

There's a lot of weather information out there. In fact there may be too much weather information, and not enough really good weather information.

There are at least 21 different forecast modles that are put into "ensembels." The reality? Most of them are wrong to some degree on precise forecasting of geographic coverage and snowfall totals.

Sometimes a forecaster is better off just using one or two modles, and knowing their biases.

Food for thought as we head into what passes for our snowy season in Minnesota this winter.

Cold deepens:

You can feel it in the air. This cold is slowly strengthening it's grip on Minnesota.

Ground? Frozen solid. Mild sunny day in the 40s and 50s? Not anytime soon.

This will be bone chilling, tree cracking cold. It's what we expect each winter in Minnesota.

Sub Zero Thursday:

All indications are we'll set a new record for the latest sub zero reading on record Thursday morning, January 19th, 2012.

It could be close Wednesday as temps make a run at zero overnight tonight and again before midnight Thursday.

Any chance that we'll see a winter without sub zero temps has left the building.

More from the Twin Cities NWS & MN Climate Working Group:

Will the Twin Cities Tie a Record for the Latest Below Zero Temperature?

"The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures failed to drop below zero.

If not, a new "latest subzero reading" will likely be set the following morning (January 19th). Low temperatures are forecast to be close to zero at the airport Wednesday through Saturday morning."

Speaking of the Minnesota Climate Working Group, let me take a moment give thanks and appreciation for the excellent work they do. This dedicated group of professionals keeps the books for a vast variety of Minnesota weather records. The incredibly detailed data is valuable to so many sectors of our economy. You can count agriculture, commerce, tourism and of course media outlets among the many who benefit from their work.

Spend a few minutes (or hours!) sifting through this vast treasure trove of data. You'll see why it's one of my favorite resources for Updraft and our daily weather chats on MPR!

Snowy Friday?

Here's a 72 hour heads up that we could see significant snow in southern Minnesota Friday.

Two of our primary forecast models (GFS and NAM) bring in a snow system Friday.

Early indications are the heaviest snow band could lay out south of the metro, but the metro could see plowable snow Friday if current model tracks hold.

The system appears to have the potential for dumping 3" to 6" of fresh snowfall. Now where that will fall is the big question. It's too early to pinpoint metro totals, but stay tuned as a more active snow pattern kicks into high gear.

You may want to fire up the snow blower, dig the shovel out of the back of the garage and stock up on driveway salt.

I'm just sayin'!

PH

Winter kicks in: First sub zero ahead; Snow chances increasing

Posted at 9:02 AM on January 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Extreme Cold Watch issued for North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

-30 to -45 wind chills in North Dakota by morning

-25 to -36 actual air temp in Manitoba & Saskatchewan this morning!

-20 to -25 below in northern Minnesota by Thursday morning

Near 0 in the metro overnight tonight

-6 GFS model forecast for the metro Thursday morning (January 19th)

January 18th latest sub-zero temp on record at MSP (2002)

January 19th, 21st, 27th, February 1st, & 2nd all potential sub-zero lows in the metro according to latest GFS run

Major snowfall potential next Tuesday?

MNDOT cams show even a light snowy coating presented problems this morning.

Snowy near miss:

The metro got off relatively lucky this morning as the bulk of accumulating snow slid just south in the overnight hours.

A light coating of snow was still enough to slick up streets and freeways around the metro.

Snowy coating at Williston Road & Highway 7 this morning.

The bulk of accumulating snow slid south from Mankato to Waseca and Rochester, where a slippery 1" to 2" fell.

Cold posied to attack:

The season's coldest air is poised in Canada and ready to attack Minnesota over the next 48 hours.

We'll get just a taste tonight as temps hover below zero in northern Minnesota. Then the mother lode of cold will surge south Thursday behind another micro clipper that could bring a snowy dusting Wednesday.

"Extreme" Cold:

I've been following this air mass all the way from Alaska, where it's been -30 to -50 for weeks now. This seriously cold air has spilled over the Canadian Rockies, and it hit -36 in Saskatoon this morning! That sounds like a long way off on the road map...it's not very far on the weather maps.

The core of that bitter arctic air will nose into Minnesota Thursday morning.

The Grand Forks NWS is the first to trot out the new "Extreme Cold" watch products this morning. Remember? It's the new version of the "Wind Chill" watch & warning products.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CAVALIER...
GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...
VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON
412 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
AND BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 20 BELOW
RANGE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH THE 30 TO 45
BELOW RANGE.

* FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR WITHIN MINUTES.

The logic behind the change is that it's still dangerously cold even if there is no wind to speak of. Feel any warmer yet?

Record latest first sub zero temps at MSP this week!

If we make it to midnight at MSP Airport without hitting zero (and it may be close!) we'll at least tie the record for the latest sub-zero temp on record at MSP. If we are able to hold off zero tonight, it looks like a lock that we'll plunge below zero by Thursday morning in the metro.

That should set the record for the latest sub zero temps at MSP.

This will not be the first winter on record without sub-zero temps at MSP. Wishful thinking for some!

Snowy spells; with a major storm chance in sight

As the jest stream delivers cold air bursts in the next week, a series of weak to moderate low pressure systems will spin up over Minnesota. Each one will bring a chance of snow.

The most promising this week appears to be Friday, when the GFS is cranking out .18" of liquid which could translate into a couple inches of snow.

The bigger system looming on the horizon winds up and stalls right over Wisconsin next Tuesday according to the GFS. The GFS is spitting out .63" of liquid (starting as rain changing to snow?) with this system for MSP as of today. At a 10:1 snow:rain ratio you can do the math...it could be our biggest snow so far this winter.

It's too early to bet the farm on a system a week out, but at least there's hope for snow lovers!

Stay tuned...

Tornado season 2012; we have a winner!

Welcome to tornado season 2012!

The first tornado watch of 2012 was posted early Tuesday for parts of Missouri (including the St. Louis metro area) and Illinois. No tornadoes were sighted so far.

PH

Snow slides (mostly) south; Several snow chances ahead

Posted at 4:07 AM on January 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

6am snow mainly south of metro with some accumulation and slick/icy roads

Coating expected in metro

1" to 2" possible south of metro and southern Minnesota by noon Tuesday

-Twin Cities radar loop

Jet stream snakes closer to Minnesota next few days

Several snow chances in the next week

Winter Monday afternoon on Lake Minnetonka. Wispy cirrus clouds indicative of approaching snow.

A rare snowy morning commute south of metro:

Commuters have been lucky this season. We've had mostly dry, snow & ice free roads this winter. That will change Tuesday morning, at least south of the metro.

It may not be a snow blitz by Minnesota standards, but 1" to 2" of snow overnight from Mankato to Rochester and falling temps around 10 degrees will lead to icy conditions for your drive into work Tuesday morning. Remember road chemicals don't work as well when temps fall below about 15-20 degrees. Take it easy, this could be one of the tougher commutes in recent memory.

Jet Stream nearby + Cold + Moisture = growing snow chances:

The outbreak of cold air means the jet stream has shifted south. During the next week it will snake closer to Minnesota. As it does, a series of rapidly moving weather systems will tap moisture and deal us several snow chances.

It's too early and chaotic to be totally accurate about specific timing and totals, but here's my best early estimate at this point.

Tuesday AM: Coating metro; 1" to 2" south

Wednesday PM: Dusting

Thursday night Friday morning: Another 1"-2"+ potential?

Saturday: Another couple of inches?

Sunday: Dusting?

Next Tuesday: Significant snow chance?

We'll work out details on timing and totals as the week wears on, but overall it looks snowier the next week to 10 days. We may nickel and dime our way to several inches of snow by next Tuesday. Snow lovers rejoice?

Stay tuned, but more importantly, stay safe on your Tuesday morning commute!

PH

Halftime Score: Mild +9 Winter 0; (But sub zero this week?)

Posted at 7:55 AM on January 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+9 degrees MSP temps vs. average so far this winter (Dec 1 - Jan 15th)

0 number of sub zero days so far this winter

6 days at or above 40 degrees this month (Includes 40 on Sunday!)

+11.2 MSP temps vs. average for the first half of January

11.2" season snowfall total at MSP Airport

Coating to 1" possible late tonight

-16.1" compared to average season snowfall

27.3" average season snowfall to date at MSP

52.4" by last year on this date!

2977 Heating degree days (HDD) in the metro so far this winter

3767 average HDD by this date

21% savings in heating costs vs. average this winter!

+31 minutes of daylight since December 21st

+ 2 minutes of daylight per day this week

Floating ice house on Detriot Lake. (WDAY image)

Winter's 1st Half in the books:

We're halfway home. Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) is officially half over.

Whether you're a disgruntled winter lover or gleeful with the mild temps and lack of snow, the first half is in the books and the numbers are remarkably mild. I was born & raised in Minnesota, and I have never lived through a winter quite like this in my 37 winters here.

Season's coldest air so far this week:

Winter's 2nd half opens with a strong cold front sweeping through today. This will be the coldest air mass so far this winter season.

Temperatures in Alaska have been running between -30 and -50 for weeks, and a chunk of that air is coming south. Sub zero temps are moving over the Canadian Rockies and spilling into Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

A little Arctic Fluff?

As the cold air spills in today and Tuesday, there could be a shot of light snow late tonight into early Tuesday. Look for a coating to 1" in the metro with some higher totals possible in southern Minnesota. Two or 3 minor snowy dustings may add up to 1" to 2" of total snowfall this week. With the colder temps, there will be some slick roads.

Another record this week?

Temperatures will dive well below zero in northern Minnesota this week, and will make a serious run at sub zero temps in the south. The coldest morning looks to be Thursday when temps could approach or dip slightly below zero in the metro. It's not a lock yet, but it is certain that we're going to be plenty cold both Tuesday and Thursday morning.

Let's see if a light northwest wind and the urban heat island conspire to keep MSP Airport near zero Thursday morning, while other locations dip below zero.

If we make it to Thursday (January 19th) without hitting zero, it will set a new record for the latest date ever in the Twin Cities, which now stands at January 18th. (2002)

Temps will begin to moderate on Friday, and we should be pushing upper 30s low 40s again by this weekend, with 40s likely again early next week! The GFS is hinting at another big thaw the last days of Janaury that could push temps again onto the 40s and possible 50 in Minnesota. Unreal.

It's too early to (responsibly) say this will be the coldest week of winter. February can bring severe (and sustained) cold to Minnesota. There are already early signs that a frigid air mass may come south the first week of February that could be as cold or colder than what we'll see this week.

Stay tuned.

PH

Sunday Thaw; Record "latest" sub zero temp next week?

Posted at 4:55 PM on January 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

40 degrees in southern Minnesota Sunday

34" snowfall in Gile, Wisconsin Thursday & Friday

6" Greater Milwaukee area

3" to 8" in Greater Chicagoland

Coating to .5" ends Saturday evening

30s again Sunday afternoon!

-3 to -6 degrees GFS forecast next Wednesday to Friday morning

January 18th latest first sub zero reading on record at MSP Airport (2002)

November 4th earliest sub zero reading at MSP Airport (1991)

10.3" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

48" season snowfall total last year on this date

Sunday Thaw:

Another batch of milder Pacific air will push into Minnesota Sunday. Temps should crack the thawing point again, and upper 30s look like a good bet for the metro and southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

Arctic air returns next week: Season's first sub-zero temp in the metro?

The jet stream finally shows signs of a more typical January pattern, and that means colder air in Minnesota.

It looks like arctic high pressure will ooze south late next week. The result could be the first sub-zero readings of the season in the metro and southern Minnesota.

Last half of January: More like winter

Looking ahead at the maps the last two weeks of January, it will feel more like Minnesota in winter. Temperatures look to alternate between colder than average arctic style outbreaks, punctuated by brief surges of above average temps.

The two best chance for snow right snow appear to be around January 22nd and 24th. It's too early to tell if they will materialize or be significant.

AO & stronger jet streams messing with trans-Atlantic flights

I've talked about the stronger jet streams associated with the strong positive phase of the Atlantic Oscillation this winter.

It turns out the numerous flights from Europe to the USA have had to make unscheduled refueling stops while bucking serious headwinds.

The story from the Wall Street Journal.

Here's another angle from Scientific American on why the AO is causing our "non winter" so far in 2011-'12:

Jet Lag: What's Causing One of the Driest, Warmest Winters in History?

"The jet stream controls winter weather, but strange forces are controlling the jet stream this season

The chief suspect behind the mysterious weather is an atmospheric pressure pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, which circles the high Northern Hemisphere."

Cordova, Alaska still digging out:

So where did the snow go? And what does 18 feet of snow look like? Here's the story from Cordova, Alaska which has been literally buried by a series of storms this winter.

Kind of puts out 86.6" winter in perspective last year!

2011: year of extreme weather:

Weather Underground's Jeff Masters has details on some of the weather extremes set in 2011.

PH

Chicago & Wisconsin snow storm; Minnesota temp roller coaster

Posted at 6:22 PM on January 12, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

3" to 6"+ snowfall totals from Chicagoland through eastern Wisconsin

Flight delays from MSP to Chicago, Milwaukee and other eastbound cities

Teens again for highs Friday

30s return this weekend

-Chicago area snowfall totals

Travel problems heading east:

The first significant snow storm in some time is plowing through eastern Wisconsin and Chicago into Friday. The system is dumping a lrage area of 3" to 6"+ snowfall totals, with the potential for some 8" totals near Chicago.

Here are some resources to track the system if you have travel plans to the east.

-Latest snow totals and info from Milwaukee NWS

-Chicago NWS

Minnesota: Temp roller coater next few days

Cold air behind the eastern storm is dropping temps to near zero in southern Minnesota and below zero in the north.

Arctic air will hang tough Friday, with temps holding in the teens.

A warming trend kicks in this weekend, with temps again pushing into the 30s by Sunday.

The next arctic front drops in Monday, and temps should once again return to January levels.

PH

Wintery relapse; Wisconsin snow today

Posted at 8:20 AM on January 12, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

10 degrees in the metro Thursday morning

-42 temp change since Tuesday afternoon!

Now that's more like it!

Oh yeah. Remember January?

The arctic express has raced through Minnesota on schedule. Temps flirted with zero this morning in northern Minnesota, and hovered around 9-10 above in the south. This is the coldest day since December 10th in many Minnesota locations.

Wisconsin snow:

Snow is piling up on the leading edge of the cold air outbreak in Wisconsin. If you're planning travel to the east today toward Eau Claire, Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay or Chicago, expect snow along I-94 from Eau Claire east.

-Latest Wisconsin radar loop

-Latest conditions from Milwaukee NWS

Storm total snowfall should generally fall in the 3" to 6" range for much of central and eastern Wisconsin by Friday morning.

Coldest week of the year on average in Minnesota:

The timing of our long overdue cold outbreak is good. This is, climatologically speaking, the coldest week of the year on average.

According to the Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar, the average high in the Twin Cities is 23 degrees and the average low 7 above from January 9 - 18th. (newest 30 year averages)

If you take the midpoint of those days you could say January 14th - Saturday- is the coldest day of the year on average in Minnesota.

Of course, "average" doesn't seem to mean much ion Minnesota these days!

PH

Instant Winter: But still 5th latest sub zero in metro (and counting)

Posted at 5:23 PM on January 11, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

30 average # of days at or below zero in metro in winter

18 days at or below zero last winter

0 days at or below zero so far this winter

December 9th long term average date for season's first 0 degree temperature at MSP Airport

4 above Weather Lab forecast low temp for Friday morning at MSP

10.3" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

25.7" average season snowfall to date at MSP

48" season snowfall by this date last winter

.28" liquid total GFS forecast precip for metro next 16 days (would be 2.8" snow at 10:1 ratio)

Finally, Winter:

It took 2 months, but winter has finally arrived.

Last year "winter" began abruptly on November 13th with an 8.3" snowy dumping. One year ago streets were choked with snow drifts and parked cars thicker than mosquitoes in late June.

Deep snow at the Weather Lab last winter

This year it took until January 11th for the artist formerly known as winter to return.

Our false spring is history, and the weather maps look like winter will finally stick around, more or less.

More like January::

The last two weeks of January look more like winter. Overall we'll see closer to average temperatures. Still there will be some temp swings from below to above average. As a range, it looks like we'll see highs alternating between the teens, 20s and 30s the next two weeks.

Dodging Zero?

The gush of polar to arctic air masses will likely bring some sub zero overnight lows to northern & western Minnesota in the next two weeks. That's good for making some thicker (and more stable) ice on Minnesota lakes.

It appears the best shot at taking a run at zero in the metro will be early Friday morning. I'm forecasting about 4 above at MSP early Friday.

If we don't get there, we may dodge zero a few more days. That could put us at or past the record for the latest zero degree temp ever recorded at MSP.

The chances of getting through this winter witout hitting zero at MSP? In a normal year I'd say you're nuts. At this point I'd say 50/50.

Details from the MN Climate Working Group:

Latest First Below Zero Temperatures in the Twin Cities 1872-2012

"In 140 years of record keeping in the Twin Cities, the official temperature has always fallen below zero sometime during the winter. The latest being January 18th during the winters of 1888-89 and 2000-2001.

The winter of 2000-2001 only had two days with temperatures that reached below zero The Chanhassen National Weather Service has a tally of the lowest counts of below zero temperatures in past winters."

Twin Cities First Below Zero Temperature: 1872-2012 Winters

Rank Season First Below Zero
------------------------
1) 1888-89 January 18
1) 2001-02 January 18
3) 1954-55 January 16
4) 1881-82 January 14
5) 2011-12 January 11 (so far)
5) 1913-14 January 11
5) 1974-75 January 11
5) 2002-03 January 11
9) 1877-78 January 4
10) 1969-70 January 2

No big snow in sight:

The colder air has returned, but overall the pattern does not look favorable for any big storms just yet.

As we say in the weather biz....stay tuned!

PH

Old Man Winter comes out of hibernation

Posted at 6:45 AM on January 11, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow, Winter 2011-12

Well, it is about time we tap into some colder air north of the border. Ten days into the new year and the temperatures are running close to 15 degrees above normal. According to climate statistics we are entering the coldest two weeks of the year. Daylight has already lengthened and Old Man Winter has to play some catch-up. That begins today.

Blustery winds will follow in the wake of the advancing cold front. The leading edge of much colder air is slicing through central Minnesota this morning with a band of mixed precipitation. Temperatures are headed down at most locations today. Winds and wind chill readings will be the weather story today and tonight.

Snow lovers will have to head into Wisconsin for winter recreation later this week. A couple inches of snow are possible overnight as close as LaCrosse and Eau Claire.

NOAA's forecast for the most likely area to receive four or more inches of snow on Thursday is shown here.

If your travel plans take you east on Thursday,you may have some delays headed into Milwaukee and Chicago, where a Winter Storm Watch hs been posted.

This plunge of modified arctic air is targeted for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here's a look at the NAM temperature forecast for 6am Friday morning. Sub zero minimum readings are likely in northeast Minnesota.

The National Weather Service in Duluth shared this information about the mild January weather in their neck of the woods.

Snapshot of radar at 7am. The general movement has been southeast at 25 to 30 mph.

Snow is mixed with rain. Liquid precipitation is likely to be a tenth of an inch or less central Minnesota this morning. Only a trace of moisture has fallen in the Twin Cities so far this month.
CE

Party's Over: Winter's back; Wind, cold & snow return!

Posted at 10:55 PM on January 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

52 degrees - record high at MSP Tuesday

21 average high at MSP Tuesday

+ 31 degrees Tuesday at MSP vs. average!

Numerous Records Tuesday:

41 at International Falls

47 at Duluth

50 at Alexandria

51 at Fargo

52 at St. Cloud

53 at Eau Claire

54 at Rochester and Mankato

57 at Redwood Falls and Sioux Falls

Northland records fall: (From the Duluth NWS)

Most Number of 45 Degree or Higher Temps at Duluth for January

"Today, January 10th, marks the 4th day this month that the temperature has reached at least 45 degrees. Never in recorded weather history has a January produced more 45 degree or higher temperatures in Duluth. This breaks the old record of 3 days set in 1877."

January reality check Wednesday!

The long awaited and well forecast arctic front is blasting through Minnesota Wednesday.

Snow too!

A couple of waves of snow Wednesday & Thursday look to produce anywhere from a coating to as much as 2" in parts of Minnesota including the metro.

Then cold: A shot at Zero?

The fresh snow cover and arctic air may be just enough to make a run at our first 0 degree temps of the winter season in the metro early Thursday & Friday morning.

My hunch is we'll bottom out in the single digits above zero at MSP. I expect a few sub-zero temps west of the metro Thursday & Friday morning.

Button up!

PH

"Broken Winter:" Warmest January start; Another record today!

Posted at 5:34 AM on January 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

49 degrees at MSP Airport Monday ties the record high of 49 set in 2002

52 my record breaking forecast high temp Tuesday
(Current record is 49 degrees set in 1990)

+14.3 degrees at MSP so far this January!

A snowless Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka on January 9th.

I expected this would come out given the fact that we're running about 13 degrees above average so far this month.

So far this is the warmest start to January on record in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.

The numbers from The Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Warmest Start to January in the Twin Cities: January 1-10, 2012

The balmy winter of 2011-12 keeps marching on.

"January 1-10, 2012 may well be shaping up to be the warmest first ten days of January on record for the Twin Cities going back to 1873. Using the National Weather Service forecast for January 10th, the preliminary average temperature for the Twin Cities will be 31.4 degrees, beating January 1-10, 1880 with 31.2 degrees. It is interesting to note that four of the past ten warmest starts to January happened since 2000.

January 10 will continue the streak of at or above normal temperatures in the Twin Cities. The last time the average temperature was below normal was back on December 10, 2011."

Twin Cities Warmest January 1-10
Temperatures in Degrees F

Rank Avg T Jan 1-10
------------------------
1 31.4 2012
2 31.2 1880
3 29.9 1992
4 29.2 2007
29.2 2006
6 27.8 1889
7 27.6 1987
8 26.9 2003
26.9 1939
10 26.5 1933

8th latest below zero temps at MSP....so far:

I've posted many times on Updraft (most recently this morning) how January 18th is the latest we've recorded a sub zero temp at MSP Airport.

As of today this is the 8th latest we've gone without bone chilling sub-zero weather in the metro. It looks like we'll move up the ladder this week, with the best shot at temps approaching zero on Friday morning.

Again, the post from the MN Climate Working Group.

Latest First Below Zero Temperatures in the Twin Cities 1872-2012

"In 140 years of record keeping in the Twin Cities, the official temperature has always fallen below zero sometime during the winter. The latest being January 18th during the winters of 1888-89 and 2000-2001.

The winter of 2000-2001 only had two days with temperatures that reached below zero The Chanhassen National Weather Service has a tally of the lowest counts of below zero temperatures in past winters."

Twin Cities First Below Zero Temperature: 1872-2012 Winters

Rank Season First Below Zero
------------------------
1) 1888-89 January 18
1) 2001-02 January 18
3) 1954-55 January 16
4) 1881-82 January 14
5) 1913-14 January 11
5) 1974-75 January 11
5) 2002-03 January 11
8) 2011-12 January 9 (so far)
9) 1877-78 January 4
10) 1969-70 January 2

You can see some more info with the tie in on today's Big Story Blog at MPR.

PH

"Broken Winter" so far; Big changes ahead - Colder 2nd half of winter?

Posted at 8:44 AM on January 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

49 degrees - current record high both Monday & Tuesday at MSP Airport

48 likely high at MSP Monday

52 my forecast high at MSP Tuesday

+12.8 degrees so far in January at MSP

January 11th -18th Coldest week of year on average in Minnesota

Cold front arrives Wednesday

30 degrees colder by Thursday & Friday morning!

January 18th - latest we've gone without a sub-zero reading at MSP Airport (2002)

3 above zero - my forecast low temps at MSP Friday morning.

5 weeks from Saturday pitchers & cathcers report to MLB Spring Training in Florida & Arizona! - Feb 18th

Record Territory:

Here we go again. One more push of unseasonably (and unbelievably) mild Pacific air is sliding into Minnesota early this week. Temps will again push well into the 40s, with some 50s in Minnesota Monday & Tuesday.

The record high at MSP Airport is 49 both days, and we have a shot at breaking it - both days.

I am forecasting a high of 52 on Tuesday at MSP. That's just plain crazy for January, but it's the rarefied Pacific air we live in these days.

One last push:

Could this be the last major push of near record warmth in Minnesota for a while?

You would be on thin ice to forecast that in this "unwinter" of 2011-'12. But signs in the long range forecast maps may be pointing in a direction that will lead us to colder weather in the next 6 weeks.

Cold air has been building over Alaska the past few weeks. It's been -35 to -50 in Alaskan interior, and there are signs that chunks of that cold are going to break off and head south toward Minnesota and the Great Lakes in the next 2-4 weeks.

Minnesota appears to the on the western edge of these arctic outbreaks, and the cold we receive could come as glancing blows. Still, it looks like enough cold air may get here to push temps to near zero in the metro both Friday and Sunday morning.

Winter's 50-Yard line:

Sunday is January 15th, and that's the halfway point of meteorological winter. (Dec-Feb)

The first half fo winter has been among the warmest such periods on record.

+5.5 degrees in November

30 average number of sub zero winter days at MSP Airport

Twin Cities NWS has some interesting data on sub-zero days.

Below Zero This Winter?

"With the the winter of 2011-2012 off to a very mild start, will we see any days dropping below zero across the area? The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. Never has a reporting location across the Twin Cities forecast area NOT seen a winter when the temperature did not drop below zero. Will this winter be the first?"

Colder 2nd half?

So what can we expect from winter's 2nd half?

"Persistence" would seem to dictate a forecast of continued warmth the 2nd half of winter, but I am seeing signs that may push us closer to normal, and toward a cooler and more typical 2nd half of winter.

The so called "Arctic Oscillation" shows signs of leaning more negative in the coming weeks. This should allow cold air to surge south from the arctic with greater frequency the next few weeks.

Tuesday may be the last time we see temps in the 40s and 50s in Minnesota for the rest of January, and maybe beyond.

The changes in the AO, overall jet stream patterns and my gut tell me we're trending much closer to normal the second half of winter.

Snow drought:

The lack of snow cover in the USA and Canada is amazing this year.

Just one year ago nearly 50% of the USA was covered with snow. (46.9%)

Today just 14.6% of the USA is sporting snow cover.

In Minnesota you have to travel deep into the northeast woods to find decent snow cover, and even that has been fading lately. Last year we were counting it by the foot.

It's a little bit "chicken & egg" but the lack of snow cover is one huge factor in our record warmth so far this winter. Here's a great explanation form the La Crosse NWS.

In the Sierra and Rockies, there is scant snow cover compared to one year ago. At Vail Colorado, they haven't been able to open some runs for the first time in years.

Thankfully last year was a record year for western snow pack. Water managers were able to store vast amounts of snowmelt in California and Colorado River reservoirs.

There will be no immediate water shortages in the west this year, but additional snowpack this winter would be very helpful in assuring the longer term stability of water supplies in the west.

PH

Janaury +12 so far; 40s again Monday? Open water on Mille Lacs

Posted at 5:13 PM on January 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

"On January 5 at about 3pm I saw a live mosquito! I could hardly believe my eyes, but I did a double-take and got a good look and it definitely was one."

Posted by Katie Parke-Reimer on Updraft | January 6, 2012 11:09 AM

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+12 degrees - January temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport

30s this weekend - Cooler but still +10 degrees vs. average

40s again by Monday and probably Tuesday

30 degrees colder late next week?

5 above in the metro next Thursday & Friday morning?

Open water on parts of Lake Mille Lacs on January 6th!

Seasonal confusion continues:

It's only the first week of January and this is already one crazy weather year.

So far January is picking up right where December left off with excessively mild temps. With 540s again widespread Friday, the Twin Cities is now running a full 12 degrees above average so far for the first 6 days of January!

After posting the first 60s ever recorded in Minnesota this early in the year we cool down a little this weekend. Cooler yes, but I just can't seem to find the right keys these days to type C-O-L-D.

Our weekend cool front would be considered a "January Thaw" in most years. But this is clearly not most years.

40s return Monday!

It looks like another shot of Chinook modified mild Pacific will sweep into Minnesota by Monday. Without snow cover, temps should again respond into the 40s by Monday afternoon. The mild air should linger into Tuesday.

Semi-Arctic front arrives Wednesday?

The GFS and other models are finally holding form on the notion that colder air may actually make it to Minnesota late next week. The GFS pushes a "semi-arctic" front south Wednesday, and builds colder than average high pressure into Minnesota through next Friday.

It appears the front may come through mostly dry at this point, but arctic fronts are notorious for "paving the way" for cold air with at least a dusting of powdery snowfall ahead if the system.

If the models verify, we could challenge the coldest readings so far this winter season in Minnesota by Thursday or Friday. We bottomed out at 5 degrees above zero in the Twin Cities on December 9th, the coldest temps so far this winter season.

It appears the cold may be short lived. What else would we expect in this "year without winter?" Temps may moderate back into the 30s by next weekend.

But there are signs of more reinforcing arctic type air the following week.

Stay tuned.

The crack on Mille Lacs: The saga continues

This is not the year to assume safe ice on Minnesota lakes.

NASA's MODIS Terra high res visible satellite images continue to show long cracks in the patchy ice quilt that is Lake Mille Lacs this winter.

Local reports confirm open water and the ever shifting ice conditions this year.

"Friday. January 6th, 2012

You know I was driving back from Upper Red Monday and saw this crack first hand! MY GOD was all I could I say. Than upon closer look at it, from just north of Garrison, there were people setup with portables not more than 100 feet from this open water! My god are people nuts!? I actually saw cars and trucks on the ice out of Garrison. Does anyone watch the news, my feelings are this ice in this area is dangerous, drive to the south, they say it's safe down there!
.
Posted on: Yesterday 15:02:14"

Stay safe in this crazy ice year!

PH

Unprecedented warmth; Records smashed; 1st early Jan 60s ever in MN!

Posted at 5:35 PM on January 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

64 degrees in Minneota, MN Thursday!

63 degrees just north of Canby, MN Thursday

61 degrees in Marshall, Madison & Canby Thursday

1st 60 degree readings ever recorded in MN in the 1st week of January

53 degrees - record high at St. Cloud Thursday

52 degrees in Grand Rapids!

Dozens of record highs at Minnesota locations Thursday

115+ new high temperature records in the USA Thursday

98% of the USA above freezing Thursday, January 5th

What month is this anyway?

Wow. I have never seen a day like this in January. Not only did we record the 1st 60s ever for the first week of January in Minnesota, we smashed dozens of records.

This is from the MN Climate Working Group and NWS today.

"There has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota during the first week of January is 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on January 5 is 57 degrees, recorded at Crookston in 1902. Reaching 60 degrees ANY time ANYWHERE in January is quite rare, occurring in only 10 years of the 120 year modern record. The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo."

Many locations not only broke records Thursday, but smashed them by more than 10 degrees! Ironically high clouds kept the Twin Cities at 45 degrees, 2 degrees shy of the forecast record high of 47.

More from my MPR colleage and UM professor Dr. Mark Seeley in his Weathertalk blog.

Topic: Warm and record-setting start to January

"After starting New Years Day cold, icy, and snowy, the first week of January has brought temperatures that range from 8 to 12 degrees F warmer than normal on average, with record-setting values on the 4th and 5th. For January 4th many western and southern communities reported new record high temperatures including: 47 F at Redwood Falls; 49 F at Browns Valley; 50 F at Luverne; 51 F at Pipestone and Montevideo; 52 F at Madison, Milan, and Canby; and 54 degrees F at Marshall and Minnesota. The last reading is a new all-time state record high for January 4th, breaking the old record of 50 F at Worthington in 1930.

In contrast to Minnesota's warm January, Florida residents were turning on their furnaces this week as some new record low temperatures were set on the mornings of January 3rd and 4th. In central and northern Florida counties some overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s F were reported. As far south as Punta Gorda it was 29 degrees F. Temperatures are supposed to rebound into the 70s F this weekend."

Here is a partial list of the incredible high temperatures Thursday (many are records) from the Twin Cities NWS. Complete list here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
435 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012

...HIGHEST REPORTED TEMPERATURES TODAY...THURSDAY JANUARY 5TH 2012...

...MINNESOTA...

...YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY...

1 NNE CANBY (1191 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 236 PM JAN 5 63 F
HANLEY FALLS (1068 FT)(MNDOT) 145 PM JAN 5 61 F
4 NW ECHO (1049 FT)(DDMET) 235 PM JAN 5 60 F

...STEARNS COUNTY...

3 ESE BELGRADE (1249 FT)(MNDOT) 221 PM JAN 5 56 F
4 ESE AVON (1200 FT)(APRSWXNET) 258 PM JAN 5 55 F
2 WSW PAYNESVILLE (1181 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 252 PM JAN 5 55 F
2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 235 PM JAN 5 55 F
1 SSE SARTELL (1099 FT)(APRSWXNET) 326 PM JAN 5 55 F

...SHERBURNE COUNTY...

SAINT CLOUD ASOS (1023 FT)(ASOS) 253 PM JAN 5 52 F

...REDWOOD COUNTY...

1 SW MORTON (840 FT)(MNDOT) 200 PM JAN 5 60 F
REDWOOD FALLS ASOS (1023 FT)(ASOS) 153 PM JAN 5 59 F

...RAMSEY COUNTY...

1 S MOUNDS VIEW (904 FT)(AWS) 329 PM JAN 5 48 F
SAINT PAUL ASOS (685 FT)(ASOS) 253 PM JAN 5 46 F
3 W WOODBURY (1000 FT)(APRSWXNET) 317 PM JAN 5 46 F
2 NNE SAINT PAUL (835 FT)(MNDOT) 325 PM JAN 5 46 F
1 WSW ARDEN HILLS (910 FT)(AWS) 319 PM JAN 5 46 F
1 NW NORTH SAINT PAUL (981 FT)(APRSWXNET) 325 PM JAN 5 46 F

...MILLE LACS COUNTY...

8 N MILACA (1195 FT)(MNDOT) 349 PM JAN 5 51 F
1 SW ONAMIA (1273 FT)(APRSWXNET) 328 PM JAN 5 51 F
1 WSW PRINCETON (977 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 313 PM JAN 5 50 F

...MCLEOD COUNTY...

HUTCHINSON (1059 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 213 PM JAN 5 55 F

...LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY...

5 SSW MARIETTA (1169 FT)(MNDOT) 228 PM JAN 5 62 F
MADISON (1115 FT)(IEM) 357 PM JAN 5 61 F
2 SSE MADISON (1082 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 334 PM JAN 5 61 F

...KANDIYOHI COUNTY...

3 WSW PRINSBURG (3504 FT)(APRSWXNET) 157 PM JAN 5 60 F
WILLMAR (OTHER-MTR) 215 PM JAN 5 57 F

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

1 SE MAPLE GROVE (926 FT)(MNDOT) 310 PM JAN 5 49 F
2 E MINNEAPOLIS (875 FT)(AWS) 319 PM JAN 5 48 F
4 ESE RICHFIELD (833 FT)(MNDOT) 256 PM JAN 5 47 F
2 SSE OSSEO (899 FT)(AWS) 319 PM JAN 5 47 F
1 W MAPLE GROVE (937 FT)(AWS) 324 PM JAN 5 47 F
1 WSW ROBBINSDALE (2854 FT)(APRSWXNET) 322 PM JAN 5 46 F
1 NW PLYMOUTH (982 FT)(APRSWXNET) 253 PM JAN 5 46 F
MINNEAPOLIS ASOS (836 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM JAN 5 45 F
FLYING CLOUD ASOS (905 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM JAN 5 45 F
CRYSTAL ASOS (869 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM JAN 5 45 F

...DAKOTA COUNTY...

2 WNW CANNON FALLS (837 FT)(APRSWXNET) 320 PM JAN 5 50 F
2 ESE FARMINGTON (891 FT)(AWS) 324 PM JAN 5 49 F
2 NE LAKEVILLE (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 323 PM JAN 5 48 F
2 WSW APPLE VALLEY (1021 FT)(AWS) 339 PM JAN 5 47 F
1 ESE FARMINGTON (900 FT)(AWS) 324 PM JAN 5 47 F
SOUTH SAINT PAUL (820 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 335 PM JAN 5 46 F
SOUTH SAINT PAUL (783 FT)(AWS) 259 PM JAN 5 46 F
3 WSW INVER GROVE HEIGHT (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 310 PM JAN 5 46 F
2 SW EAGAN (964 FT)(APRSWXNET) 310 PM JAN 5 46 F

...CARVER COUNTY...

3 S CARVER (845 FT)(RAWS) 249 PM JAN 5 47 F
2 NE LESTER PRAIRIE (938 FT)(MNDOT) 348 PM JAN 5 47 F
1 SE CHASKA (916 FT)(AWS) 244 PM JAN 5 46 F

...ANOKA COUNTY...

6 WNW FOREST LAKE (899 FT)(RAWS) 306 PM JAN 5 48 F
2 W LINO LAKES (907 FT)(AWS) 359 PM JAN 5 48 F
1 SW FRIDLEY (2824 FT)(APRSWXNET) 325 PM JAN 5 48 F
1 E COON RAPIDS (910 FT)(APRSWXNET) 333 PM JAN 5 48 F
2 SE ANOKA (872 FT)(APRSWXNET) 338 PM JAN 5 47 F

...WISCONSIN...

...ST. CROIX COUNTY...

5 SE BALDWIN (1150 FT)(AWS) 345 PM JAN 5 43 F
1 N BALDWIN (1138 FT)(APRSWXNET) 341 PM JAN 5 43 F

Warm USA; not just here:

TWC's Jim Cantore elaborates.