Updraft Category Archive: White Christmas

Mild 'til Jan 6th; Then 1st arctic blast? Tsunami debris reaches West Coast!

Posted at 8:23 AM on December 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

+4.8 temps vs. average at MSP Airport so far in December

7th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota

Trace of snow cover between now and Christmas
(1st "official Brown Christmas" in 5 years at MSP)

36 degrees Christmas Day

40 degrees December 26th & January 3rd? (GFS model output)

1st Arctic Outbreak looking more likely around January 6th-8th!

Japan Tsunami debris washes up on Washington Coast!

Lonnie Archibald of Beaver shows a float he found near the mouth of the Quillayute River. (Photo by Marge Archibald, for Peninsula Daily News)

Mild and milder:

Welcome to "Winter Light." The first official full day of "winter" will feel a little more like December, but this month continues the mild trend so far.

It looks like we're aiming for another "top 10 warmest" month in the metro and much of Minnesota. One thing we know for sure; this will be the 7th consecutive month of above average temperatures for the metro.

June +1.1
July +5.6 (6th warmest on record)
August +2.4
September +0.9
October +6.4 (8th warmest)
November +5.6 (11th warmest)
December +5.0(?) (10th warmest?)

4 of the past 6 months have been at or near the top 10 warmest on record! That's a pretty remarkable run.

Mild pattern holds through January 5th?

It looks like the jet stream's Canadian vacation will last into the first days of 2012. Look for average to much above average temps between now and January 5th. The GFS model is hinting at 40 degrees on December 26th and again around January 3rd! That's almost 20 degrees above average.

1st Arctic Outbreak in sight??

I've hinted in recent days that there are signs of a pattern change lurking the late in first week of January. The latest GFS runs support this notion, and bring a big chunk of bitter arctic air south starting around January 6th.

GFS model sends a wave of cold air south from Canada January 6th

After an unseasonably mild run, it's about time for the other shoe to drop and send arctic air south.

While the trend looks probable for a real shot of winter, it's still early. Let's see how the models unfold in the next week.

Japan Tsunami debris washes up on West Coast:

Multiple reports indicate that some of the initial debris from the massive Japanese Tsunami has begun to wash up on beaches in Washington and Vancouver Island.

Several large black 55 gallon drum sized "floats" have been found. One came ashore in Neah Bay on the extreme northwest tip of Washington.

"PORT ANGELES, Wash. - Now that beachcombers know what they are seeing, coastal residents have reported finding several pieces of suspected Japan tsunami debris on Clallam County beaches.

Two floats similar to the one identified Tuesday as part of the tsunami debris field were found on Rialto Beach near the mouth of the Quillayute River about a week before Thanksgiving, said Beaver resident Lonnie Archibald, who also is a freelance photographer often published in the PDN and the Forks Forum."

The floats are the most buoyant and wind blown pieces of debris, and therefore move the fastest. The bulk of the massive debris field is still in the central pacific. It has been estimated at 100 million tons.

Various models have projected large amounts of debris washing up in Hawaii in the next 1-2 years, with debris littering California beaches in 3 years.

The massive debris field consists of houses, cars, boats and other big and small chunks what used to be part of Japan before the massive earthquake and Tsunami.

Random graphic of the day:

This has nothing to do with weather, but everything to do with "random chaotic data" that we often observe in weather systems and graphics.

I'm not making any political judgments here or taking sides. I just fnd the data display fascinating.

Check out the latest RCP tracking poll of the GOP Presidential candidates.

This remarkable "political meteogram" tracks each candidates rise and fall in the polls over the past several year or so. Talk about a "random system" with a "high degree of variability!"

The GOP race makes the complex weather models we look at everyday look almost sane.

PH

New 30-Day Outlook: Mild January? Christmas Eve snow chance?

Posted at 6:42 PM on December 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

Folks wondering where winter is in Minnesota this year may be waiting a bit longer.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released it's new 30-day outlook for January today. The outlook features a major shift in thinking from previous outlooks for winter in the Upper Midwest.

The January outlook now favors chances for a warmer than average January in Minnesota and the eastern half of the USA.

The outlook is a major change form the colder than average predictions by NOAA and other private forecasters within the last month.

A persistent milder than average December weather pattern and shifts in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely driving the changes.

As I talked about earlier this week, La Nina shows signs of fading in the Pacific. The weaker La Nina episode this year has not produced the same atmospheric circulation patterns as last year's event that produced a vigorous winter in the Upper Midwest and eastern USA.

Here at the MPR Weather Lab, I'm not sure whether to totally but into the new CPC outlook yet. I'm seeing a potential pattern emerge that could drive some much colder air down into Minnesota from Canada around or after January 1st.

The dreaded "Polar Vortex" shows signs it may migrate southward to near Hudson Bay by early January. If that happens, it will drove down brutally cold arctic air masses into Minnesota.

Could the "Polar Vortex" setting up over Hudson's Bay around New Year's Eve deliver an arctic outbreak in early January?

Stay tuned... while the rest of December looks milder than average overall, there could be an arctic outbreak in our future.

Ray of hope for saving a "White Christmas?"

This week I've talked about a 70% chance of having a "Brown Christmas" in the metro and much of western and southern Minnesota.

I'm not ready to go any higher than that yet....and 30% is still hanging tough today.

The GFS has been hinting at a possible snow system headed for the Upper Midwest in the days just before Christmas. The latest version paints a low pressure system emerging from the southwest and tracking into the Midwest on Christmas Eve.

If it verifies, this could potentially "save" a White Christmas from the metro into southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and much of Wisconsin.

The latest GFS model run is printing out .33" of precip on Christmas Eve at MSP Airport, with temps cold enough for all snow. If that scenario were to pan out (and it's a long way off) it could be 3" to 4" of snow in the metro, with heavier snow in southeast Minnesota.

Just as likely though, the system could completely miss us to the south.

Stay tuned....Santa may still have a little "Christmas Weather Magic" in his stocking for Minnesotans who want a white Christmas!

PH

December 2011: Mild so far; Snow "drought" continues...for now

Posted at 8:55 AM on December 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

Updraft Headlines:

+2.7 degrees temps vs. average at MSP so far in December 2011

7.9" season to date snowfall at MSP Airport

15.5" average snowfall to date at MSP Airport

-7.6" below average snowfall so far this season at MSP

51% of average snowfall so far at MSP
(season to date as of December 15th)

6.8" season snowfall so far in Duluth

23.7" season average snowfall in Duluth to date

29% of average snowfall to date in Duluth through December 15th!

More brown (and even green!) than white at the weather lab as of December 15th

When in a drought, don't forecast rain or snow:

Old words of wisdom from senior forecasters at "Weather Command" back in the 80s when I was cutting my teeth in the weather biz. This wise idea is based on the notion of "persistence." Weather patterns, for better or worse tend to hold once they are established.

Last December we could barely come up for air between snowy blasts. This year there's not enough to make a snowball at the Weather Lab in the west metro.

In fact my lawn was surprisingly green yesterday as rain soaked in.

In late November I talked about the growing odds of a "Brown Christmas" this year, which I boosted to 70% as of this Monday.

Here's a more thorough accounting of our chances for a white Christmas taken from my November 29th Updraft post.

"72% Historical chances of a white Christmas in the metro

Personally, I'm hoping for at least a little snow between now and December 25th!"

PH

I never imagined I'd have to start posting the odds of a Green Christmas! Only in Minnesota.

Clinging to slight snow chances:

There are two possible chances for snow in the metro and southern Minnesota between now and Christmas. At this point, neither one looks terribly promising for delivering a white Christmas, but at least there some hope for those who want snow.

Friday: Weak Clipper - a weak Clipper sailing through tomorrow may bring a dusting of snow to Minnesota. Snowfall potential looks light, generally under an inch.

Next Thursday: The overnight GFS model run spun up a potential low pressure system over Minnesota next Thursday December 22nd. If it verifies, that could produce some snow late next week.

GFS model hinting at snow potential on December 22nd. Could it "save" a White Christmas?

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH

Searching for moisture between now and Christmas

Posted at 6:34 AM on December 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Snow, White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

While working as a forecaster at the Indianapolis NWS Office in the 1970s, the computer models were getting good enough to extend a forecast out about seven days. For the most part, they were fairly accurate through seventy-two hours. We applied a number of what was known as cook book rules in forecasting snow amounts. Many are still basic enough to use today.

One of the standard synoptic forecasting techniques was to expect the heaviest snow to accumulate about 150 miles north of the track of the center of lowest pressure. That was close to the case for last Saturday's snowfall of six inches from Clear Lake, Iowa to Cumberland, Wisconsin.

Looking out at the long range GFS, I can't find a system that has the potential to produce signifcant snow in the Upper Midwest between now and December 24th. But I'm experienced enough to doubt model output data after five days, particularly in the winter months. I know this much, daylight is continuing to grow short and we are gradually approaching the historically coldest days of the season.

Our friends at the State Climate Office have posted this graphic of the probability of a White Christmas in Minnesota. Here's a statement they included with the image; The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead. The chances decrease to the south and west and the best chance for a "brown" Christmas is in far southwest Minnesota where chances are a little better than 60%.

You can dive into more details of their research by clicking on their White Christmas post.

Cold air is still coming, but so is the moderation. Once we get through the next forty-eight hours of winter chill there will be a nice bump-up in temperatures for Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

The GFS has been consistent with readings in the lower to perhaps the middle 30s on Sunday. Here's a snapshot of expected surface temperatures and winds for noon on Sunday.

Before I turn the weather fun back to the Chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, I'll leave you with this extended temperature outlook for the next 8 to 14 days from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. I'll not include an editorial comment.

This is not a magnitude of warmth or cold but a confidence level of above or below normal temperatures. May the wind be always at your back.
CE

Odds for a "Brown Christmas" increasing?

Posted at 9:03 AM on November 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, White Christmas

72% Historical chances of a white Christmas in the metro

2006 last Christmas with just a trace of snow in the metro

19" snow cover at MSP Airport on December 25th, 2010

.03" GFS model forecast precipitation through December 15th (0Z run)

40 degrees GFS forecast high temp for Metro on December 13th

50% Current Weather Lab odds for a brown Christmas in the metro and southern Minnesota

Brown lawn and dry birdbath at the weather lab today

Where's winter?

Yes it sort of feels like winter today in Minnesota; it just doesn't look like winter. My brown lawn at the weather lab in the west metro is begging for rain or snow.

Our historical or "climatological" odds for a white Christmas (at least 1" of snow on the ground) in the metro are 72%.

The odds for Christmas white approach 100% as you move north from Brainerd and Virginia to Ely, Biwabik and Embarrass.

Chances for a white Christmas drop to about 60% in southwest Minnesota around Pipestone and Luverne.

Here are some other Minnesota cities and the historical probability of a white Christmas:

-Brainerd: 97%
-Duluth Airport: 98%
-Grand Marais: 89%
-Hutchinson: 64%
-Mankato: 68%
-Morehead: 84%
-Ortonville: 70%
-Owatonna: 71%
-Pipestone: 66%
-Redwood Falls: 61%
-Rochester: 78%
-St. Cloud: 74%
-Worthington: 76%

Lake Wilson in southwest Minnesota has the lowest historical probability of a white Christmas of any Minnesota reporting location at 57%.

We've seen less than 1" snow cover on 31 of 111 years in the Twin Cities dating back to 1899.

Bug Island on Lake Minnetonka rests in 5" of snow cover in December 2009.

Christmas 2011: Brown or white?

We're about to close out the driest fall on record in the metro and much of southern Minnesota. The growing drought shows no signs of easing on the medium range forecast maps. Other than a minor dusting of snow Thursday and another chance along about December 10th, the maps look eerily quiet. No big "Domebuster" type storms in sight so far this year. Nothing more than "a flake an acre" between now and mid-December?

The maps can turn on a dime this time of year, but at this point it seems likely that we may get to December 15th without significant snow cover in much of Minnesota.

If that happens our chances for a brown Christmas will increase dramatically.

The last time you probably saw your lawn on Christmas Day in the metro was 2006 when a trace was recorded at MSP Airport. MSP Airport also recorded just a trace of snow in 2002 and 1997.

That translates into a brown Christmas about every 4 or 5 years in the past 14 years. We still may manage 1" of snow between now and Christmas, but historically speaking we're due for another brown Christmas in the metro.

The whitest Christmas ever in the metro was 20" in 1983. Last year was #2 with 19" on the ground at MSP on Christmas Day!

They say when in a drought, don't forecast rain or snow. Looking at the maps, I'd put the odds of a brown Christmas this year in the metro at 50/50 right now. The weather maps may still gin up a storm, and bring us the gift of winter white for Christmas this year.

Personally, I'm hoping for at least a little snow between now and December 25th!

PH

Whitest Christmas in 14 years?

Posted at 8:46 AM on December 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, White Christmas

7 snowstorms in 6 weeks. That's the recipe for a white Christmas in Minnesota in the epic weather year of 2010.

Our latest storm has dumped another shot of snow on Minnesota, and a bonus coating of glaze ice to boot.

As of Tuesday morning there's a cool 14" of snow on the ground (snow depth) at Twin Cities Airport. If we maintain that number into Saturday (Christmas Day) it will be the "whitest Christmas" in 14 years. The last time we had this much snow on the ground on Christmas Day was 1996...with 18 inches.

The whitest Christmas ever in the metro was 20" in 1983.

The historical chances of a white Christmas are about 72% in the metro. It's closer to 100% near Ely and in northeast Minnesota, and about 55% around Pipestone in southwest Minnesota.

USA-Extensive snow cover:

It looks like a white Christmas for much of the nation this year. As of today 46% of the lower 48 states is covered by snow according to data from NOHRSC.

It's interesting to note that the USA snow cover map looks very similar to last year at this time in terms of overall coverage. One notable exception is the lack of snow cover in the northeast USA, including Boston and New York City.

Latest storm dumps more snow:

Monday's quick hitting storm swept through southern Minnesota with a fury, and still lingers in the north today. It did make for a pretty interesting "Snow & Ice Bowl 2010" for the Vikings last night. Playing outdoors in that was weather probably the most interesting part of the game for Vikings fans. (But that opening touchdown drive was pretty sweet! If that's the last touchdown drive we get to remember Brett Favre by in Minnesota, it works for me.)

Here are some snow totals from around the state from our most recent snowstorm.

Twin Cities NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
950 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010

...INITIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE DECEMBER 20TH WINTER
STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.50 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0607 PM
7.50 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0345 PM
7.00 1 ESE OWATONNA MN STEELE 0500 PM
7.00 NNW ST CLAIR MN BLUE EARTH 0328 PM
6.30 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0828 PM
6.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 PM
6.10 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 PM
6.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0901 PM
6.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0802 PM
6.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0554 PM
6.00 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0510 PM
6.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0435 PM
6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 0300 PM
5.70 5 S FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0730 PM
5.50 1 SE NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0645 PM
5.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0540 PM
5.00 1 SSW DELANO MN WRIGHT 0645 PM
5.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0630 PM
5.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0620 PM
5.00 CREDIT RIVER MN SCOTT 0600 PM
5.00 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 PM
5.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0551 PM
4.60 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
MINNEAPOLIS - ST. PAUL INTL AIRPORT
4.60 1 E BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0549 PM
4.50 GOODHUE MN GOODHUE 0805 PM
4.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0716 PM
4.50 BELGRADE MN STEARNS 0630 PM
4.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0607 PM
4.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0357 PM
4.40 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
4.40 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0541 PM
4.30 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0844 PM
4.30 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0745 PM
4.20 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0940 PM
4.20 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0531 PM
4.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0915 PM
4.00 SAVAGE MN SCOTT 0710 PM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0622 PM
4.00 1 SSW OAK PARK MN ANOKA 0520 PM
3.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0725 PM
3.90 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0540 PM
3.70 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0620 PM
3.70 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0450 PM
3.60 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0836 PM
3.30 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0515 PM
3.30 1 W EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0408 PM
3.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0736 PM
3.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0722 PM
3.00 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0630 PM
2.80 MAHTOMEDI MN WASHINGTON 0707 PM
2.70 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0716 PM
2.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0557 PM
2.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0643 PM
2.00 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0559 PM
1.00 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0940 PM
1.00 2 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0551 PM

ICE REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
0.10 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0732 PM

Duluth NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
753 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW REPORTS FROM THE STORM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE
NORTHLAND ON DEC 20 AND 21. THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT AND SOME OF THESE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN.
GREAT APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO OUR NETWORK OF SNOW SPOTTERS AND
OBSERVERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHLAND.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.60 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
8.00 DULUTH MN ST. LOUIS 0457 AM
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COLLEGE
8.00 9 NE HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0415 AM
TOWN OF SEELEY, WI. SAWYER COUNTY.
7.50 PARK FALLS WI PRICE 0712 AM
7.50 1 W CLAM LAKE WI BAYFIELD 0614 AM
7.50 BAYFIELD WI BAYFIELD 0558 AM
7.20 BENNETT WI DOUGLAS 0552 AM
7.00 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0700 AM
7.00 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0614 AM
6.90 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0643 AM
6.80 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0750 AM
6.60 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0449 AM
6.50 CULVER MN ST. LOUIS 0626 AM
6.50 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0429 AM
6.10 6 NE CLOVERLAND WI DOUGLAS 0705 AM
MOUTH OF THE BRULE
6.00 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0415 AM
5.50 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0700 AM
5.50 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0640 AM
5.00 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0637 AM
5.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0740 AM
4.70 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0549 AM
4.20 COTTON MN ST. LOUIS 0703 AM
4.20 NASHWAUK MN ITASCA 0532 AM
4.00 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0642 AM
SNOW DEPTH IS 16 INCHES
4.00 1 W WENTWORTH WI DOUGLAS 0640 AM
AMNICON RIVER VALLEY
4.00 12 SE SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0640 AM
4.00 GILE WI IRON 0629 AM
4.00 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS 0626 AM
3.80 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING 0629 AM
3.50 FREDENBERG MN ST. LOUIS 0643 AM
ISLAND LAKE
3.30 SARONA WI WASHBURN 0547 AM
3.00 WEBB LAKE WI BURNETT 0415 AM
2.80 DANBURY WI BURNETT 0534 AM
2.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0620 AM

La Crosse (Rochester) NWS:

Rochester has tied a record today for the most snow on the ground ever recorded! Here are the details.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

...ALL TIME SNOW DEPTH RECORD TIED AT ROCHESTER MN...

ON DECEMBER 21ST...THE OFFICIAL SNOW OBSERVER NEAR ROCHESTER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 29 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
THIS TIED JANUARY 25 1982 FOR THE MOST SNOW EVER ON THE GROUND.
DAILY SNOW DEPTH RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1908.

-La Crosse (& SE MN) area totals form Monday's storm:

Red River Valley NWS totals here.

Sioux Falls NWS totals here.

Next system: A big maybe for metro

The next chance for snow comes Thursday. It looks like the brunt of the storm will slide through southwest Minnesota and Iowa, with the Twin Cities on the edge of snowfall. We'll need to let the models resolve the northward extent of snow with this system, but plan on snow if you are travelling south or southwest Thursday.

Enjoy the milder temps until then!

PH