Updraft Category Archive: Weekend

Summery "mixed bag" weekend; Heat, thunder, rain & cooler

Posted at 8:35 PM on May 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Weekend

Quick look forecast: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

>

-Twin Cities NWS forecast

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Latest weather and climate news:

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Grassland fire danger western Minnesota

Posted at 3:40 PM on April 6, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Weekend

The pink color indicates the region experiencing the lowest humidities and the highest winds this afternoon. Southwest Minnesota has also been missing out on spring showers as well. Since March 1st, Sioux Falls is about 1.50 inches below normal on precipitation.

A Red Flag Warning continues for the highlighted region through the remainder of the afternoon until the relative humidity comes up around sunset. At 3PM the relative humidity was a mere 16 percent along with wind gusts above 30 mph at Morris.

Plenty of sunshine graced Minnesota today with temperatures rather delightful, running close to ten degrees above normal. It was in the lower 60s in northern Minnesota at mid afternoon.

A cool front will slice through the state on Saturday, but does not promise to deposit much in the way of needed moisture. The GFS model indicates precipitation amounts are likely to be less than a tenth of an inch in most places.

Easter Sunday may turn out to be okay, but indeed cooler and on the breezy side. The really chilly air arrives overnight on Sunday.

Maximum temperatures on Sunday afternoon.

Some of the coldest air we've seen in four weeks will settle over the upper Midwest on Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to be several degrees cooler than the normal upper 40s and middle 50s from north to south. Frosty conditions are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
CE

60 Saturday? Windy Deer Opener; Watching snow chances next week!

Posted at 2:10 PM on November 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Our first weekend in November looks mild, but windy!

Fire danger continues high into this weekend.

Low pressure winding up this weekend will track through the Red River Valley Saturday night and Sunday morning. That puts Minnesota on the mild (and windy) side of the system.

Southerly winds gusting over 35 mph and sunshine will help boost temps Saturday. 60s are quite possible in southern Minnesota, and metro bank thermometers may flash 60 degrees or better Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, winds will shift into the west, and somewhat cooler air will push in behind the system. Highs should make the 50s south and 40s northwest.

Still watching for snow chances next week!

The GFS continues to paint a strong low pressure system near Chicago by next Wednesday.

GFS model shows low pressure in Wisconsin and snow potential into southeast Minnesota Wednesday. This scenario would put potentially heavy snow near La Crosse, Eau Claire and Rochester

If the system curves far enough west, the back side could sideswipe southeast Minnesota (and possible the metro) with a brief snowy smack. It's still too early to pinpoint the exact storm track, so we'll have to keep an eye on this.

Any westward shift in the forecast track could put Minnesota in line for our first significant snow of the season.

Stay tuned!

PH

AM storms rumble through; PM severe threat looms

Posted at 8:35 AM on July 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

Update 10am:

Bow echo producing wind damage south of metro.

MPX: 5 W Green Isle [Sibley Co, MN] amateur radio reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 08:28 AM CDT --

MPX: Northfield [Rice Co, MN] law enforcement reports HEAVY RAIN of U0.00 INCH at 10:00 AM CDT -- intersection filled with water. three cars stranded

Update 9:40am:

Storms will gradually fade in the metro this morning, but SPC is monitoring developing bow echo south & east of metro for possible watch.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN AND WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231437Z - 231530Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING EWD AT 35 KT THROUGH SERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WI WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE LATE
THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LINEAR MCS...WHICH STRETCHED FROM NWRN WI SEWD INTO SERN
MN...HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...AN INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...
ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF MSP. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM IS ELEVATED AND THE
AIS MASS AHEAD OF IT IS CURRENTLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...THE STORM WAS
BEING SUSTAINED BY A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEING SPREAD NEWD BY
SWLY WINDS BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB. GIVEN THE CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS...IF THE STORM CAN BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD INCREASE...AND A
WATCH WOULD THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY.

..IMY.. 07/23/2011

Update 9:24am:

NWS update on storms moving into Wisconsin below....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
923 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MNZ052-053-063-WIZ014-015-023>025-231530-
BARRON-CHISAGO-DUNN-ISANTI-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
923 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
BARRON...CHISAGO...DUNN...ISANTI...PIERCE...POLK...ST. CROIX AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

AT 922 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHISAGO CITY TO 5 MILES EAST OF MARINE ON ST CROIX TO 3 MILES WEST OF
HOULTON TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF LAKELAND. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN PIERCE...NORTHWESTERN DUNN...
SOUTHEASTERN ISANTI...SOUTHERN CHISAGO...SOUTHERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BARRON AND ST. CROIX COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BURKHARDT...
HUDSON...SOMERSET...LAKELAND...LINDSTROM...CHISAGO CITY...SCANDIA...
CENTER CITY...HOULTON AND SHAFER...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

Update 9:17 am:

Latest warning for possible developing bow echo south of metro includes Dakota & Goodhue counties...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
917 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEW MARKET TO LONSDALE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF KILKENNY...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
NEW MARKET...
WEBSTER...
ELKO...
WARSAW...
DUNDAS...
NORTHFIELD...
MEDFORD...
RUSKIN...
NERSTRAND...
STANTON...
DENNISON...
KENYON...
BOMBAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

Update 9:10am:

MPX: 1 W New Prague 4 [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 09:00 AM CDT -- pea to dime size hail with some quarter size. winds estimated 50 mph with 2 inch tree limbs down.

Update 8:46am:

Warning now for Scott & Carver storm on south edge of the metro....

-Twin Cities radar loop

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
846 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 841 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BELLE PLAINE TO HENDERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BELLE PLAINE...
JORDAN...
NEW PRAGUE...
VESELI...
LONSDALE...
WEBSTER...
NEW MARKET...
ELKO...
HEIDELBERG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR HAIL DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Update 8:35am Saturday:

A batch of strong storms moving through metro on schedule this morning.

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
827 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MNZ051>053-060>063-231430-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-RAMSEY-SHERBURNE-WASHINGTON-
827 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
ANOKA...CHISAGO...HENNEPIN...ISANTI...RAMSEY...SHERBURNE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM CDT...

AT 823 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PRINCETON TO ANDOVER TO PLYMOUTH. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ST FRANCIS.
NEW HOPE.
OAK PARK.
SPRING LAKE PARK.
BODUM.
LAUDERDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR WHITE BEAR LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

A warm front is pushing north into Minnesota.

A line of storms in the Dakotas will push into western Minnesota early Saturday morning and move east.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest weather watches & warnings from Twin Cities NWS

A tornado watch is in effect until 2pm for the eastern Dakotas and a small sliver of western Minnesota.

The best chance for storms to approach the metro area appears to be early Saturday morning, but there are indications the heaviest storms could slide just north on the Twin Cities through St. Cloud & Brainerd early Saturday.

There is a slight risk for severe storms through Saturday, but it appears the highest chance for severe weather will be Saturday afternoon & evening. With some wind shear I am concerned about the possiblity of tornadoes late Saturday PM & evening in central & southern Minnesota...including the Twin Cities metro. The latest forecast models trend storms from the metro north...meaning we could be on the edge...but it looks like a close call.

Be prepared as you head out Saturday PM & evening.

Rainfall totals could be heavy, with an inch in many areas and several inches in some spots.

NAM rainfall projects several inches this weekend in southern Minnesota.

Modles cranking out 1"+ for MSP Airport through Saturday.

Sunday still looks like the best day of the weekend as drier air pushes in from Canada!

Seeley on Minnesota heat records this week:

From Mark's Weather Talk blog this week.

"At Moorhead, dewpoints hit 80 degrees F or higher everyday from the 16th to the 20th, topping out at 88 degrees F on July 19th with a Heat Index of 134 degrees F, both tentatively new statewide records.

Even far northern areas reached uncharted dewpoint and Heat Index values during this period. Hallock hit a dewpoint of 84 degrees F with a Heat Index of 111 degrees F on the 19th, while Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada) reported a dewpoint of 77 degrees F and a Heat Index of 109 degrees F, both new records."

Heat wave spreads east:

Chack out this interesting temperature animation from NOAA as the heat wave spreads east this week.

Now the dew points and as humid air engulfs the nation.

NOAA Study: Are "stratospheric aerosols" offsetting global warming?

Check out this new study from NOAA:

The study suggests there is evidence that earth's climate would be warming even faster without tiny particles injected high into the stratosphere that are blocking sunlight from reaching earth.

"NOAA study: Increase in particles high in Earth's atmosphere has offset some recent climate warming

"Stratospheric aerosol increased surprisingly rapidly in that time, almost doubling during the decade," Daniel said. "The increase in aerosols since 2000 implies a cooling effect of about 0.1 watts per square meter - enough to offset some of the 0.28 watts per square meter warmingeffect from the carbon dioxide increase during that same period.""

NOAA Graphic: Sources for "stratosperic aerosols."

PH

Update 2pm Friday:

Nice but warmer & more humid day today as scheduled. Temperatures are in the 80s to near 90 now in southern Minnesota.

You're feeling the humidity level is up again today. Take a look at dew points, which have pushed back into the 70s in southern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

A few showers & T-Storms have developed along the warm front which is pushing north today. Expect showers and a few T-Storms along the I-90 corridor to maybe as far north as Mankato this afternoon.

So far nothing severe and SPC has not issued any watches or mesoscale discussions for the area, but we'll keep an eye on things this afternoon. Expect rain south & west of the metro...and we'll see if the showers have enough oomph to make it to the Twin Cities by late PM/evening.

PH

Get ready for a roller coaster weather ride over the next 72 hours.

Friday:

Overall, Friday should be a pretty nice day in Minnesota. Some heat and humidity will begin to bubble north again, and you'll notice the rise in dew points Friday.

Dew points spike this weekend.

Highs will be in the lower 80s north, upper in the south, and may approach 90 in some areas.

Look for a mix of sun and more clouds Friday, and it appears any storms will hold off until after midnight Saturday in most areas, so Friday evening should be a great night to be outdoors.

Steamy "thunder sandwich" Saturday?

All weather bets are off after the clock strikes midnight early Saturday.

An upper level low pressure system spinning out of the northern Rockies will likely trigger a round over overnight showers & T-Storms moving from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

We could see an MCS develop, with widespread lighting, thunder, and heavy rain. The favored timing appears to be after midnight in western Minnesota and after 3am into early Saturday morning for the metro and eastern MN. There are some indications storms early Saturday may favor the northern half of Minnesota.

After the initial morning wave of storms, the forecast models paint a sunnier steamy pictuer for the midday and early afternoon hours. Temps could shoot up to near 90, and dew points could surge into the steamy upper 70s again...with a shot at 80 in some areas.

A second frontal wave could trigger another round of T-Storms late Saturday PM & evening. There is a risk that some of the storms could be severe Saturday late PM & evening. (Yes, I know...there's a Twins game at 3pm and the U2 concert at TCF Bank Stadium Saturday night!)

Let's see how the models tweak timing on Saturday's storm potential later Friday PM.

Splendid Sunday?

After a cool front cleans the humid gunk out of the atmosphere Sunday...it could be one of the best days of the summer!

Look for a return to sunshine, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points falling into the comfy lower 60s!

Stay tuned as we tweak the weekend forecast Friday afternoon!

PH

Weather perfection today: Brief weekend heat & thunder cameo

Posted at 8:31 AM on July 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Weekend

How do you spell relief?

That old line from a Rolaids commercial (written in part by my late friend ad wizard Richard Calveli) is perfect to describe today's fresher weather pattern over Minnesota.

72 degrees coolest temperature since Saturday morning in the metro

60 lowest dew point in about 5 days.

A weak bubble of Canadian high pressure is gracing Minnesota with cooler and much drier air today. A few showers linger along the Iowa border where deep moisture still resides southward into Iowa.

Dew points in the 50s & 60s are giving air conditioners a rest in Minnesota today.

Afternoon temperatures near 80 north and near 88 south will feel much more typical for late July in Minnesota.

The relief will be short lived, as dew points begin to creep upward again Friday and return to the 70s.

Rain chances increase:

As warmer & more humid air bubbles north again Friday, look for our chances for showers & T-Storms to increase again.

The first chance of an isolated storm may roll in overnight tonight into Friday morning.

A better chance for more T-Storm coverage rolls in overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, then again later Saturday PM & evening.

Rain chances increase again this weekend.

Humidity too:

Dew points may spike upwards to near 80 degrees again on Saturday...and heat index values may exceed 100 again Saturday.

Dew points spike this weekend, but fall next week.

The "good" news is that the return to heat will be short lived this time, as a new cool front pushes drier and more comfortable air into Minnesota again Sunday. Look for temperatures to return to the 80s and dew points to drop into the comfy 60s & 50s again early next week!

PH

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Holiday weekend, not too shabby

Posted at 6:55 AM on July 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer, Thunderstorms, Weekend

Overall this Fourth of July Holiday weekend was pretty nice in Minnesota. Saturday, Sunday and Monday were warm with plentiful sunshine. Dew points climbed into the 70s in parts of northwest Minnesota on Monday afternoon. Temperatures peaked at 90 degrees in Roseau and the Twin Cities, with a high of 85 at Duluth on Monday.

Thunderstorms rumbled across northern and central Minnesota overnight, dumping two thirds of an inch or rain or more at some locations, including St. Cloud. At daybreak thuderstorms were along the Iowa border in southwest Minnesota with a rather large area of rain in west central Minnesota.

Visible satellite image shows the bumps in the cloud cover where the thunderstorms were located at 630AM CDT. Notice the clearing line in in far northwest Minnesota.

The bigger picture shows quite the cloudcover centered over Minnesota this morning. This infrared image depicts the coldest cloud tops, typically associated with precipitation, in the blue color.

For today, skies should be partly to mostly sunny over the northern third of the Gopher State, with periods of showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Minnesota. Some strong storms are possible, mainly south of a line from Montevideo to the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Clearing skies are then expected from west to east during the course of the late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday will be just dandy, with some increase in humidity for southern Minnesota on Thursday. The look ahead for the weekend suggests warm with a chance for scattered thunderstorms, mainly southern Minnesota.

We are entering the climatological warmest time of the year. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA has outlined the upper Midwest with odds favoring above normal temperatures for mid July. That would keep maximum temperatures will into the 80s.

Here's a look at the future radar from an experimental WRF model being run from the Duluth NWS office. The image is showing radar reflectivity forecast at 3PM CDT this afternoon. The red colors are indicators of possible thunderstorms. This is a snapshot of the future radar based on computer model output. Interesting stuff.

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Heat warning; Record 82 degree dew point at Hallock!

Posted at 6:04 PM on June 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Weekend

Call it "crazy heat."

This is Minnesota and not Arizona, right?

Heat index values pushed over 110 degrees in Hallock in the far northwest corner of Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

At 3pm & 4pm Hallock recorded an Amazon Jungle style dew point of 82 degrees. Moorhead recorded a heat index of 113 today!

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

HALLOCK PTSUNNY 90 82 79 S12 29.52S HX 111

According to UM climate guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, that is likely to be an all time sate record high dew point for June 30th.

His email to me and Tom Crann Thursday afternoon.

"Paul and Tom,

Mark"

Weather Channel temps show heat wave in the central USA.

Here are some other observations from Thursday afternoon. Only a few clouds rolling through kept it from being even hotter.

Note the Heat indicies of 111 at Hallock and 112 at Moorhead!

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. N/A MEANS
CURRENT SKY AND/OR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

MNZ060>063-068>070-302200-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES PTSUNNY 94 74 52 SE14 29.70F HX 104
ST PAUL PTSUNNY 92 76 59 SE12G21 29.70F HX 104
CRYSTAL CLOUDY 93 74 53 S13 29.69F HX 103
BLAINE SUNNY 91 75 59 SE9 29.70F HX 102
EDEN PRAIRIE CLOUDY 93 76 57 SE14 29.69F HX 105
LAKEVILLE PTSUNNY 91 73 55 S10 29.71F HX 100
SOUTH ST PAUL PTSUNNY 92 74 54 SE7 29.71F HX 102
LAKE ELMO FAIR 91 73 55 SE9 29.73F HX 100
$$
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-302200-
Northwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEMIDJI PTSUNNY 84 72 65 SE13 29.65F
HALLOCK PTSUNNY 90 82 79 S12 29.52S HX 111
ROSEAU PTSUNNY 88 81 79 S13 29.57F HX 105
WARROAD PTSUNNY 84 75 74 SE16G24 29.58F HX 92
THIEF RVR FALL MOSUNNY 91 75 59 S18G24 29.60S HX 102
CROOKSTON MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW17 29.56S HX 102
FOSSTON MOSUNNY 90 75 62 S15 29.60S HX 100
DETROIT LAKES MOSUNNY 90 72 55 S15 29.65F HX 96
MOORHEAD MOSUNNY 95 79 59 S10 29.57S HX 112
PARK RAPIDS MOSUNNY 90 74 59 SE13G22 29.66F HX 99
$$
MNZ006-009>011-018-025>026-302200-
North Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BAUDETTE PTSUNNY 80 71 74 SE10G17 29.63F
FLAG ISLAND CLOUDY 73 68 83 SE18 29.58F
INTL FALLS CLOUDY 76 69 79 S15G24 29.70F
WASKISH PTSUNNY 81 73 78 SE9G16 29.65F
BIG FORK PTSUNNY 81 72 74 S10 29.73F
LONGVILLE PTSUNNY 86 75 70 SE10 29.69F HX 95
GRAND RAPIDS CLOUDY 81 72 74 SE7 29.74F
CRANE LAKE MOSUNNY 75 68 78 SE5 29.76S
ORR CLOUDY 77 68 73 S8 29.74R
COOK CLOUDY 79 70 73 S6 29.77S
$$
MNZ012-019>021-037-302200-
Northeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DULUTH PTSUNNY 70 61 73 E13 29.80S
ELY PTSUNNY 77 66 69 SE15 29.78S
HIBBING CLOUDY 80 71 74 SE10G18 29.76F
EVELETH CLOUDY 81 70 69 S13 29.79S
DULUTH HARBOR CLOUDY 54 50 87 E9 29.81F
TWO HARBORS CLOUDY 72 63 73 E10 29.78R
SILVER BAY PTSUNNY 70 61 73 NE10 29.79F
GRAND MARAIS N/A 51 47 86 NE8 29.82F
G MARAIS ARPRT PTSUNNY 70 61 73 E8 29.88S
$$
MNZ029>031-032-039>041-046>048-054>057-064-302200-
West Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
FERGUS FALLS SUNNY 91 73 55 S10 29.59F HX 100
WHEATON SUNNY 93 75 55 SE9 29.63F HX 104
MORRIS SUNNY 91 72 52 SE13G18 29.64R HX 98
ALEXANDRIA SUNNY 91 75 59 S12 29.68F HX 101
ELBOW LAKE FAIR 91 72 52 S12 29.63S HX 98
WADENA MOSUNNY 88 73 62 S12G17 29.66F HX 96
GLENWOOD MOSUNNY 91 72 52 SE13G20 29.69R HX 98
APPLETON SUNNY 91 73 55 S12 29.63F HX 100
BENSON MOSUNNY 93 75 55 SW10 29.66S HX 104
ORTONVILLE SUNNY 91 73 55 SE14G20 29.61F HX 100
MADISON SUNNY 93 75 55 S9 29.62F HX 104
WILLMAR FAIR 91 73 55 S7 29.69S HX 100
$$
MNZ033>034-036-042>043-049>051-058-059-302200-
Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ST CLOUD CLOUDY 92 75 57 SE10G17 29.68F HX 103
SAUK CENTRE FAIR 91 75 59 SE15G21 29.67F HX 102
PAYNESVILLE PTSUNNY 90 73 56 S10 29.68F HX 97
AITKIN PTSUNNY 86 75 70 SE9 29.71F HX 95
PINE RIVER PTSUNNY 88 75 66 SE14 29.72F HX 97
BRAINERD PTSUNNY 92 73 53 SE15G21 29.69F HX 100
STAPLES PTSUNNY 90 75 62 SE6 29.67F HX 100
LONG PRAIRIE FAIR 90 73 58 SE10 29.68F HX 98
LITTLE FALLS PTSUNNY 90 72 55 SE9 29.68F HX 96
LITCHFIELD CLOUDY 90 75 62 SE7 29.69F HX 100
BUFFALO CLOUDY 91 75 61 SE8 29.70F HX 101
MAPLE LAKE CLOUDY 89 76 65 SE7 29.68F HX 101
$$
MNZ037-044-045-052-053-302200-
East Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PRINCETON PTSUNNY 90 73 58 SE8 29.70F HX 98
MORA MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S8 29.73F HX 98
CAMBRIDGE MOSUNNY 91 73 55 SE8 29.69F HX 100
RUSH CITY MOSUNNY 90 74 60 SE13 29.73F HX 99
MOOSE LAKE PTSUNNY 82 73 74 SE3 29.73F
HINCKLEY MOCLDY 90 73 58 SE9G17 29.74F HX 98
CLOQUET MOSUNNY 70 57 64 E7 29.78F
MCGREGOR PTSUNNY 88 73 62 S10G21 29.74S HX 96
$$
MNZ071>073-080-081-089-090-097-098-302200-
Southwest Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MONTEVIDEO MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW12G18 29.63F HX 102
GRANITE FALLS MOSUNNY 92 72 50 S15 29.68F HX 100
CANBY SUNNY 93 70 46 S5 29.64F HX 99
MARSHALL N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
REDWOOD FALLS CLOUDY 90 72 55 S14 29.69R HX 97
OLIVIA PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S14G20 29.69R HX 98
PIPESTONE PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S15 29.71F HX 98
WINDOM CLOUDY 90 70 51 S14G20 29.72S HX 95
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY 90 70 51 SW13G18 29.75S HX 95
JACKSON CLOUDY 88 70 55 S16G22 29.73F HX 92
TRACY PTSUNNY 87 70 57 S8 29.70F HX 92
SLAYTON CLOUDY 89 68 49 S10G17 29.74F HX 92
$$
MNZ065>067-074>077-082>085-091>093-302200-
South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MANKATO CLOUDY 91 72 52 S14 29.71S HX 98
NEW ULM CLOUDY 90 72 55 S8 29.70R HX 96
ST JAMES CLOUDY 90 72 55 S9 29.70S HX 96
FAIRMONT PTSUNNY 91 72 52 S18 29.75R HX 98
GLENCOE CLOUDY 91 73 56 S7 29.70R HX 99
OWATONNA MOSUNNY 93 75 55 S12G18 29.72F HX 104
WASECA PTSUNNY 90 72 55 S13 29.75F HX 96
ALBERT LEA MOSUNNY 93 73 52 S12G18 29.72S HX 102
$$
MNZ078>079-086>088-094>096-302200-
Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCHESTER MOSUNNY 93 74 53 S18G25 29.79F HX 103
RED WING MOSUNNY 97 72 44 S12 29.73F HX 105
STANTON MOSUNNY 95 73 48 S10G18 29.71F HX 103
DODGE CENTER MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S17 29.77F HX 98
WINONA SUNNY 93 73 52 S7 29.78S HX 102
AUSTIN SUNNY 95 75 52 S12G21 29.76F HX 107
PRESTON SUNNY 91 72 54 S13G22 29.81F HX 97
$$
ABBREVIATIONS USED IN REMARKS
TC - TEMPERATURES IN CELSIUS
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
VSB - VISIBILITY
$$

Excessive Heat Warnings are rare in Minnesota.

The latest version continues through 8pm Friday.

We asked for this all winter right?? Okay...maybe not this hot.

The air mass surging into the Upper Midwest is a combination of hot and relatively dry desert air that has been baking the Desert Southwest, and a tropically humid Gulf of Mexico air mass.

Minnesota is mostly on the tropical side of things, with dew points surging into the upper 60s and 70s today. In the drier air to the west, temperatures will surge to over 100 degrees as you head toward Omaha.

Heat index tops 100:

Think of heat index as the summer opposite of wind chill. The Heat Index calculates the "apparent temperature" on your body based on the combination of temperature and humidity.

The heat index should reach a dangerous 100 to 107 late Thursday.

Wind direction matters:

Minnesota's topography plays a role when it comes to wind direction and temperatures. While most notable in mountains, upslope and downslope winds do play a role in Minnesota temperatures.

A southeast wind rises up the Mississippi River Valley toward the Twin Cities. The result is rising air...or "upslope" as it is referred to in the weather biz. Rising air cools, and thus temperatures tend to be not quite as hot on a southeast wind in Minnesota.

A southwest wind in Minnesota sinks off the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota as it descends toward the Minnesota River Valley. This "downslope" wind warms as it sinks...like a little mini "Minnesota Chinook." That is why temperatures are almost always warmer on a southwest wind in Minnesota.

All southerly winds are not created equal in Minnesota. Who knew?

Hotter Friday than today??

Thursday's heat is grabbing all the headlines, but there may be some locations in southern Minnesota that are actually warmer on Friday.

Why?

As winds shift from a southeasterly direction Thursday to southwesterly Friday we'll see more downslope warming. Also, the air mass to the west is drier, and dry air heats more easily than moist air.

The result may be some readings even hotter Friday than today...even though it may feel a bit more comfortable.

Great 4th of July Weekend?

I have to say the upcoming 4th of July weekend looks summery and great. Not perfect maybe...but really, really good. Here's the breakdown:

Friday: Mostly sunny & hot. Highs 90 south and 80s north. A few T-Storms late Friday night into early (pre dawn) Saturday morning.

Saturday: Weather perfection? Mostly sunny & warm but less humid. High near 85. NW wind 5-13 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny again & warm. High near 86. Light SW wind.

4th of July: Hazy sunshine & warm with just a slight T-Storm chance...but mostly dry! High near 88.

Wow...does it get any better than that??

PH

Scattered Friday thunder; Summery weekend ahead!

Posted at 1:05 PM on June 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

The weather maps may bring us a little bit of everything this weekend.

Friday night nowcast:

A warm front lifting north Friday evening is triggering a few scattered showers & T-Storms. It appears the best potential for heavy rain and severe weather will be in southwest and south central Minnesota.

SPC has posted a slight risk for severe weather south & west of the metro, and a few of the storms could be marginally severe.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Summery weekend ahead:

The front should lift north by Saturday, leaving most of Minnesota in a more summery air mass. Temperatures should approach 80 Saturday afternoon in the southern half of Minnesota, with some 70s in the northeast and cooler temps along the North Shore.

Sunday also looks summery, with Minnesota largely between weather systems and under considerable sunshine. High should again touch 80 in much of the south with upper 70s in the north.

Modles split on weekend rain chances. NAM seems to favor a mostly dry weekend!

An upper level low pressure system will spin over the northern Rockies this weekend, and then shift east toward Minnesota Monday. It appears the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Monday afternoon in Minnesota.

NAM model paints rain into Minnesota Monday afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

Mixed clouds & sun today; Severe risk Friday; "Loud thunder?"

Posted at 8:58 AM on June 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Weekend

Get set for a mixed weather bag again today across Minnesota.

They say all weather is local, and today will be one of those days. Even across the metro there may be big differences in sky cover today. It could be cloudy in Cambridge and sunny in Shakopee this afternoon.

Surface weather maps and the morning 1km GOES visible satellite image make 2 things clear this Thursday.

1) The center of low pressure is spinning near Hibbing & the Iron Range today.

2) The back edge of the cloud line is hanging right near the metro.

GOES 1km visible image shows low clouds. They should gradually burn off in southern Minnesota today.

Expect mostly sunny skies in southwest Minnesota...right up to the southwest edge of the metro. Cloudy skies will prevail much of the day from the metro north and east until the system slowly pulls away to the northeast, and drier air should mix in to help gradually burn off some of the low clouds near the metro.

Temperatures will recover nicely into to near 80 in the southwest, with 70s elsewhere this afternoon.

Next wave Friday:

It's hard to string together two dry days in a row this spring it seems. Our next wave of showers and T-Storms may roll in with a warm front late Friday PM & evening.

NAM model paints scattered rain & T-Storms late Friday PM & evening.

The system could generate a narrow line of convection Friday, and there may be just enough oomph to spawn a few severe storms.

Summer like weekend?

After the warm front pushes through Friday night, this weekend may finally feel a bit more like summer.

Saturday and Sunday should both bring ample sunshine and temps near 80 in southern Minnesota.

There will be a threat of a passing thunderstorm or two this weekend, but the bigger more organized storm threat appears to hold off until late Monday or Monday night.

A mostly dry weekend with occasional rain chances?

Loud Thunder?

We got several reports of "loud thunder" Tuesday night and early Wednesday in Minnesota...including in St. Paul.

That got us thinking, is thunder sometimes louder than other times?

The answer it seems is, yes!

There are a few factors that affect the volume and duration of thunder at nay location.

1) The distance from the lighting bolt. Simply put, the closer you are to the actual lighting bolt the louder and more immediate the thunder.

Nearby bolts may cause a sharp "clap" of thunder, while more distant (or horizontal) bolts may produce less intense or rolling thunder as the sound waves form different parts of the lighting bolt's thunder reach your ear.

2) Temperature inversions can make thunder louder, often at night. When there is colder air near the surface and a warm layer aloft (warm front) you get a temperature inversion...where temperatures increase with height above ground.

The inversion creates a discontinuity or "sound barrier" in the atmosphere which can "bounce" sound waves back to the ground. The result can be louder and more "rolling thunder" as the waves are more focused and reflected back to the ground level.

Temperature inversions can also be the reason distant trains or highways seem louder on some nights.

Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone: Biggest ever in 2011?

Sad news from NOAA. It looks like all that record spring flooding will create the largest "hypoxic dead zone" on record in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

The massive floodwaters in 2011 swept huge amounts fo "nitrogen runoff" into the Gulf, and the subsequent algal blooms may suck the oxygen out of the Gulf Waters.

Major flooding on the Mississippi river predicted to cause largest Gulf of Mexico dead zone ever recorded

June 14, 2011

"The Gulf of Mexico's hypoxic zone is predicted to be the largest ever recorded due to extreme flooding of the Mississippi River this spring, according to an annual forecast by a team of NOAA-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Louisiana State University and the University of Michigan. The forecast is based on Mississippi River nutrient inputs compiled annually by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Scientists are predicting the area could measure between 8,500 and 9,421 square miles, or an area roughly the size of New Hampshire. If it does reach those levels it will be the largest since mapping of the Gulf "dead zone" began in 1985. The largest hypoxic zone measured to date occurred in 2002 and encompassed more than 8,400 square miles."

On a brighter note, enjoy the quieter weather pattern most of today and early Friday!

PH

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Improving weekend forecast; Rare "Heat Burst" strikes Kansas

Posted at 4:00 PM on June 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat bursts, Weekend

After a cool & somewhat rainy Friday, the weekend forecast is looking up a bit.

First, Friday's rainfall numbers. Complete list here.

:ID LOCATION TIME TEMP TEMP PCPN
:
: IN MINNESOTA

ALBM5: ALBERT LEA MN : DH0800/ 66 / 53 / 0.51
BSNM5: BENSON MN : DH0800/ 63 / 52 / 0.00
BTHM5: BLUE EARTH MN : DH0600/ 69 / 52 / 0.48
CFAM5: CANNON FALLS MN : DH0534/ 65 / 50 / 0.14
MPXM5: CHANHASSEN WFO : DH0703/ 57 / 52 / 0.19
CHKM5: CHASKA NW MN : DH0600/ 66 / 51 / 0.19
DLNM5: DELANO MN : DH0800/ 61 / 49 / 0.05
ELKM5: ELK RIVER MN : DH0700/ 63 / 50 / 0.10
FIRM5: FAIRMONT MN : DH0700/ 67 / 53 / 0.64
FBTM5: FARIBAULT MN : DH0700/ M / M / 0.22
ZMPM5: FARMINGTON CWSU : DH0700/ M / M / 0.17
FORM5: FOREST LAKE MN : DH0700/ 66 / 48 / 0.05
GLDM5: GAYLORD MN : DH0700/ 64 / 52 / 0.12
HAMM5: HAMBURG MN : DH0800/ M / M / 0.17
HSTM5: HASTINGS L/D MN : DH0600/ 66 / 50 / 0.09
HCSM5: HUTCHINSON MN : DH0700/ 64 / 44 / 0.10
JORM5: JORDAN MN : DH0530/ 65 / 53 / 0.12
KIMM5: KIMBALL MN : DH0555/ 61 / 48 / 0.04
LNGM5: LONG PRAIRIE MN : DH0600/ 59 / 48 / 0.01
MLRM5: MELROSE MN : DH0700/ 62 / 43 / 0.02
MLCM5: MILACA MN : DH0730/ 60 / 46 / 0.10
MNPM5: MINNEAPOLIS MN : DH0700/ M / M / 0.12
LSAM5: LWR ST ANTHONY MN : DH0600/ 66 / 51 / 0.18
MVDM5: MONTEVIDEO MN : DH0700/ 64 / 52 / 0.00
MRAM5: MORA MN : DH0700/ 62 / 45 / 0.08
MRRM5: MORRIS MN : DH0800/ 63 / 51 / 0.00
NUMM5: NEW ULM 3 SE MN : DH0800/ 65 / 53 / 0.33
NMAM5: NORTH MANKATO : DH0700/ 65 / 53 / 0.39
OWAM5: OWATONNA MN : DH0800/ 67 / 52 / 0.30
RDWM5: RED WING L/D MN : DH0600/ 68 / 52 / 0.13
REWM5: REDWOOD FALLS MN : DH0500/ 66 / 52 / 0.11
RCEM5: RICE MN : DH0700/ 62 / 48 / T
RSMM5: ROSEMOUNT : DH0800/ 67 / 51 / 0.12
SCSM5: ST CLOUD ST MN : DH0700/ M / M / 0.05
SHRM5: SHERBURN MN : DH0700/ 66 / 53 / 0.79
SFDM5: SPRINGFIELD MN : DH0703/ M / M / 0.29
STIM5: STILLWATER MN : DH0800/ 64 / 49 / 0.31
VCTM5: VICTORIA MN : DH0700/ M / M / 0.17
WACM5: WACONIA MN : DH0749/ M / M / 0.07
WELM5: WELLS MN : DH0800/ 66 / 55 / 0.60
WLDM5: WILD RVR ST PARK : DH0800/ 64 / 49 / 0.06
WNNM5: WINNEBAGO MN : DH0800/ 66 / 54 / 0.60
ZBRM5: ZUMBROTA MN : DH0700/ 65 / 51 / 0.22

The weekend forecast looks cooler than average, but pretty good all things considered.

Let's break down the numbers this weekend.

Saturday: Low pressure will pull out of Minnesota Saturday. There may be a few lingering showers in the morning, but skies should brighten and trend sunnier as the day wears on.

Look for highs in the 60s, about 10 degrees below average for the 2nd weekend in June.

Winds: Light easterly

Sunday: Sunday looks like the warmer day of the weekend. A weak bubble of high pressure over Wisconsin should be strong enough to stave off a weak weather disturbance moving in from the Dakotas.

That should mean mostly sunny skies, with a few clouds mixing in as the day wears on. Temperatures should reach the milder 70s in most areas.

Wind SE 5-12 mph.

Rare "Heat Burst" spikes temperatures 20 degrees to 101 in Wichita, after midnight!

A weather phenomenon called a "heat burst" struck Wichita, Kansas overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Heat bursts occur with some frequency in the mountains during the summer monsoon, but are more rare in the Midwest.

They can happen when thunderstorms collapse at the end of their life cycle. As moist air from the storm descends from above, the air cools and drys out initially. Then the air warms rapidly during the last several thousand feet of descent, and compresses when it reaches the ground.

Both the adiabatic warming of descent (Chinook like warming) and compression heating cause temperatures to spike rapidly, and a heat burst is in progress.

At 12:22 a.m. the temperature at Wichita's Mid-Continent Airport was 85 degrees. At 12:44 the temperature spiked to 102 degrees. This was a 17 degree increase in only 20 minutes. Winds gusted to near 60 mph.

Hourly observations show "heat burst" in Wichita. Also note the dramatic dew point drop from 66 to 27 in an hour!

Temperatures and dew points returned quickly to "air mass" values as the localized heat burst mixed out into the broader atmosphere.

KSN meteorologist J.D. Rudd explains for KSN News.

Heat bursts have been documented in Minnesota and many other states.

Heat Burst in West Central and Central Minnesota:
July 17, 2006

An interesting weather phenomena called a "Heat Burst" happened over west central and central Minnesota during the overnight hours of Sunday July 16th to Monday July 17th. A heat burst is caused by a dying thunderstorm with very warm air aloft. The temperature at Canby jumped from 91 degrees to 100 degrees in 40 minutes (from 10:35 pm to 11:15 pm) at the same time the dew point dropped from 63 to 32 degrees.

LOCATION TIME TEMP DEW POINT MAX WIND GUST
-------------------------------------------------------------
CANBY 1115 PM 100 (+9) 32 (-38) 63 MPH
APPLETON 1255 AM 91 (+14) 54 (-22) 37 MPH
MONTEVIDEO 115 AM 90 (+6) 52 (-16) 23 MPH
BENSON 135 AM 97 (+15) 37 (-36) 37 MPH
WILLMAR 235 AM 97 (+18) 45 (-28) 44 MPH
PAYNESVILLE 235 AM 88 (+7) 57 (-15) 24 MPH

Here's what seems to be a credible list of heat bursts from Wikipedia.

-Wichita, Kansas, June 9, 2011: Temperatures rose from 85 °F (29 °C) to 102 °F (39 °C) between 12:22 AM and 12:42 AM. The heat burst caused some wind damage (40-50 mph) and local residents reported the phenomenon to area weather stations. [4]

-Sioux Falls, South Dakota, August 3, 2008: Temperatures rose rapidly from the lower 70 °F (21 °C) to 101 °F (38 °C) in a matter of minutes. Wind speeds also rose with gusts up to 50-60 mph (80-97 km/h).[5]

-Cozad, Nebraska, June 26, 2008: Wind gusts reached 75 miles per hour (121 km/h), as the temperature rose 20 °F (−7 °C)[6] in a matter of minutes.[7]

-Midland, Texas, June 16, 2008: At 11:25 pm a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) occurred, and the temperature rose from 71 °F (21.7 °C) to 97 °F (36.1 °C) in minutes.[8] (These measurements were taken from miles away, and theories point to 80-100 mph (130-160 km/h) winds in a 2-3 block perimeter.)[9]

-Emporia, Kansas, 25 May 2008: Reported temperature jumped from 71 °F (21.7 °C) to 91 °F (32.8 °C) between 4:44 am and 5:11 am (CDT)[10] as the result of wind activity from a slow moving thunderstorm some 40 miles (64 km) to the southwest.

-Canby, Minnesota, 16 July 2006: A heat burst formed in Western Minnesota, pushing Canby's temperature to 100 °F (37.8 °C), and causing a wind gust of 63 mph (55 kn; 101 km/h). The dew point fell from 70 °F (21.1 °C) to 32 °F (0 °C) over the course of one hour.[11]

-Hastings, Nebraska, 20 June 2006: During the early morning the surface temperature abruptly increased from approximately75 °F (23.9 °C) to94 °F (34.4 °C).[12][13]

-Sheppard Air Force Base Wichita Falls, Texas, 12 June 2004: During late evening the surface temperature abruptly increased from approximately 83 °F (28.3 °C) to 94 °F (34.4 °C) and causing a wind gust of 72 mph (63 kn; 116 km/h). The dew point fell from 70 °F (21.1 °C) to39 °F (3.9 °C)[14][15]

-Minnesota and South Dakota, March 26, 1998: A temperature increase of 10-20 °F (6-11 °C) was reported in the towns of Marshall, Minnesota, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Brookings, South Dakota, and Montrose, South Dakota during a two-hour period.[16]

-Oklahoma, May 22-May 23, 1996: The temperature in the towns of Chickasha rose from 87.6 °F (30.9 °C) to 101.9 °F (38.8 °C) in just 25 minutes, while the temperature at Ninnekah rose from 87.9 °F (31.1 °C) to 101.4 °F (39 °C) in 40 minutes. In addition, wind damage was reported as winds gusted to 95 mph (153 km/h) in Lawton,67 mph (108 km/h) in Ninnekah, and 63 mph (101 km/h) in Chickasha.[17]

-Kopperl, Texas, 1960: A heat burst sent the air temperature to near 140 °F (60 °C), supposedly causing cotton crops to become desiccated and drying out vegetation.[18]
Portugal, July 6, 1949: A heat burst reportedly drove the air temperature from 38 °C (100.4 °F) to 70 °C (158.0 °F) two minutes later (note that the highest temperature formally recognized on the Earth is57.8 °C (136.0 °F) in Libya in 1922, and the former record has not been verified).[19]

-Cherokee, Oklahoma, 11 July 1909: at 3:00 in the morning, a heat burst south of Cherokee, Oklahoma reportedly caused the temperature to rise briefly to 136 °F (57.8 °C), desiccating crops in the area.[20]

In a totally unrelated and frivolus development, the Wichita heat burst reminded me of that classic (and tired?) Glen Campbell hit from 1968, "Wichita Lineman."

Forgive me, it's Friday and I couldn't resist. (Please don't judge me too hard!)

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Tropical thundery Friday! Low level jet stream rules

Posted at 8:45 AM on June 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Weekend

Update 8:50am Friday:

Our steamy air mass is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms this Friday.

Look for scattered storms with thunder and local downpours.

With dew points well into the 60s to near 70 degrees, some of the rainfall could be on the heavy side.

Here's the latest Twin Cities radar loop to track the storms.

Radar shows scattered thunder & rain Friday morning.

PH

*****

Summer is back for most of Minnesota!

A warm front has pushed north into Minnesota, and a warm humid air mass is moving in.

A steamy Friday has the look and feel of July on the weather maps and in the air.

The Front:

The warm front is the leading edge of a low pressure system in the Northern Rockies. The front will bisect Minnesota Friday, bringing warm air to almost all of the state.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story highlights warm front Friday.

The only exception to the warmth is the North Shore where southeast winds may keep temps mired in the 50s and lower 60s near the lake.

The best chance for any severe storms (a slight risk) appears to be in northern Minnesota.

SPC risk areas Friday.

The Air Mass:

The air mass behind the front is juicy to say the least.

Temperatures in the upper 80s pushed into southwest Minnesota Thursday, and a "hot front" of sorts blazed into western Kansas, where bank thermometers pushed 100 degrees late Thursday.

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

NORTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GOODLAND CLOUDY 92 50 23 S26G35 29.75F
HAYS MOSUNNY 97 57 26 S29G39 29.77F HX 95
HILL CITY PTSUNNY 100 53 20 S25G35 29.71F HX 98
RUSSELL MOSUNNY 95 57 27 S29G37 29.77F
$$

SOUTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DODGE CITY SUNNY 97 48 18 S26G37 29.81F
ELKHART N/A 95 50 21 S18 N/A
GARDEN CITY SUNNY 100 49 17 S26G39 29.79F HX 97
GREAT BEND MOSUNNY 91 55 29 S26G33 29.82F
LIBERAL MOSUNNY 99 55 23 S29G38 29.84F HX 97
PRATT SUNNY 93 48 21 S25G37 29.86F

Heat bubbles north Thursday.

Upper 80s to near 90 look likely for southern Minnesota Friday afternoon. If enough of Thursday's Kansas heat wave works north into the system, we could see some readings well into the 90s in southern Minnesota.

Cool front=nicer weekend!

The passing low pressure system will drag a cool front through Minnesota Friday night into early Saturday. A fresh Canadian air mass will sail in for the weekend with much drier and somewhat cooler (but still pleasantly warm) air.

Look for highs near 80 this weekend with comfortable dew points dropping into the 50s. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out for Sunday afternoon.

Dew points crash this weekend.

Low Level Jet Stream = windy day!

Summer in Minnesota and the plains is known for warm to hot and often windy southerly breezes. You can usually thank the low level jet stream for a windy warm summer day.

Meteorologists call "main" jet stream the "Polar Front Jet Stream." This fast moving ribbon of air around 18.000 feet above ground level races through the mid latitudes and steers storm systems along its path.

A second jet stream lower in the atmosphere becomes more pronounced at times during summer. This so called "Low Level Jet" (LLJ in meteorologist "geek speak") races about 5,000 feet above us, much closer than the upper level jet.

The LLJ can blow anywhere from 35 to over 50 mph in different scenarios, and often "mixes down" to ground level to create windy summer days, and to add fuel to developing thunderstorms.

The LLJ is notorious for providing energy to help trigger "nocturnal" thunderstorms where it intersects with warm frontal boundaries late at night in summer.

The LLJ pumps warm humid air straight from the Gulf of Mexico into Minnesota during the summer. IF you like it hot windy, and humid in summer, you can usually thank the LLJ!

PH

Soggy weekend; Farmers make progress

Posted at 5:20 PM on May 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

The weekend is here, and so is the rain.

Without getting too depressed about our 90% "success rate" for wet weekends this year, let's break down the weekend forecast and see if we can find some dry hours between the raindrops.

It looks like most of the (heavier) rain will be front loaded for the first half of the weekend, and we may get more dry hours late Saturday & Sunday.

Friday Night:

Scattered showers and a few thunder claps. Local downpours. Temps steady in the 60s. Winds E 5-15 & gusty at times.

Rainfall totals generally .25" to .50"

Saturday:

The main wave of precip will ride north from Iowa in the wee hours of Saturday morning. This wave will likely produce heavy downpours overnight, and some embedded thunder.

Signs are the rain could last well into Saturday morning, but there may be a drying trend with mixed sunshine Saturday afternoon.

Temps in the 60s warming into the upper 70s Saturday PM. Wind SE- S 5-12 mph.

Rainfall totals .50" to 1" overnight into Saturday AM, with some isolated higher totals.

NAM model paints widespread .50" to 1"+ rainfall totals this weekend.

Saturday night & Sunday:

This should be the drier, nicer half of the weekend. In fact, Saturday evening & night could be downright nice in many locations with temps in the 70s and partly cloudy skies.

Sunday should feature several dry hours. Chances for pop-up showers and a few scattered T-Storms will increase Sunday PM.

You can track the weekend rain blobs on Doppler.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Temperatures may push 80 degrees by Sunday PM, making it feel like summer!

Severe risk?

The vast majority of the showers and storms this weekend will be "garden variety." Some may contain small hail, downpours and gusty winds, but most should stay well below severe limits.

The slight exceptions could come late Saturday and Sunday PM when a few isolated T-Storms could blossom and turn severe. SPC has placed the slight risk area south of Minnesota to just the Iowa border for Saturday. My hunch is that may get moved a bit further north later Saturday of Sunday PM.

Bottom line: Looks like everyone will see a good soaking (.50" to 1"+) this weekend, especially during the first half. You may be able to sneak in a few dry & potentially sunny hours late Saturday & Sunday.

Dry week a bonus for farmers:

5 dry days in a row were a good thing for farmers in the Upper Midwest.

Major progress was made in planting last week and it accelerated this week. The dry spell came at a critical time. As you can see from the graph below, 2011 planting is far behind last year and the 5 year running average.

Ample sunshine and low humidity made for excellent drying conditions for soggy fields.

As you can see form the table below, as much as 1" of moisture likely evaporated from soggy topsoil this week in Minnesota.

Soil temperatures also warmed dramatically this week from into the upper 50s & low 60s in most areas. That is why crops are germinating rapidly now, and your back yard is looking greener than ever!

May you "walk between the raindrops" this weekend!

PH

2011 weekend weather rut! Lilacs, Active hurricane update

Posted at 5:32 PM on May 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

How do you know it's the weekend in Minnesota?

If it's raining or snowing, it's probably the weekend.

I'll make this as short and painless as possible, but we are stuck in a major weekend weather rut in Minnesota.

Another good soaking is on the way just in time for the weekend. I thought I'd take a look back and see if it's just me, or has our weekend weather really been lousy this year.

Turns out, it's not just me.

20 weekends so far in 2011 (including this upcoming weekend)

18 weekends have featured at least a trace of precip in 2011 (rain or snow)

90% of all weekends have had at least at race of rain or snow in 2011!

50% of all weekends in 2011 have had some rain or snow both days!

92% of all weekends since December 2010 have had some rain or snow

Looking back through the data shows it's not just trace amounts either. We've had some whopper weekend storms since December including:

-Dec 10-11 "Domebuster" 17.1" snowfall (5th biggest all time snowfall for MSP)

-February 20-21 Presidents' Day Storm 13.8" snowfall (15th biggest snowfall for MSP)

We're way overdue for a totally dry sunny weekend around these parts! It just won't happen this weekend.

Lilacs bloom:

How about some upbeat weather news for a change!

Finally some signs of life at the Weather Lab. The first (Chinese?) lilacs started blooming this week.

Lilacs in bloom at the weather lab Thursday.

According to Jim Gilbert's Nature Notebook, the average date for the first common purple lilacs to start blooming in Waconia was about May 15th back in the 70s. That date moved earlier by as much as a week or more during the 1990s and 2000s.

Looks like we're having a 1970s spring in Minnesota this year.

Rain still on the way this weekend:

My forecast for rain on Friday & Saturday remains pretty much the same from my post this morning. Details here.

NOAA: Active 2011 Hurricane season ahead

NOAA released it's updated hurricane outlook for this season and they still expect an active year for hurricanes in 2011.

"Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)"

Climate factors remain favorbale for an active hurricane season this summer.

"The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "However we can't count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

-La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season."

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

Seeley: "A great week for Farmers"

Check out Mark Seeley's Weather Talk commentary Friday morning on MPR's Morning Edition at around 6:45am.

Here's a taste.

"Topic: Finally, a weather window for Minnesota farmers

Average 4-inch soil temperatures rose from the upper 40s F last weekend into the mid-60s F during the week, making the seedbed suitable for rapid germination of planted crops. In addition 4-5 consecutive days without rain and with good drying conditions allowed even the wettest of soils to become workable. Still, for corn this is the latest planting season in well over a decade."

PH

70s Return! Mom's Day showers, First 80 Tuesday? 1965 tornadoes

Posted at 6:26 PM on May 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes, Weekend

Welcome back to the 70s!

Can the disco balls and open shirts be far behind?

The temperature topped out at 70 in the metro and much of southern Minnesota Friday.

Warm colors represent 70s surging north Friday.

It marks only the second time the Twin Cities has reached 70 this year! That's a far cry behind last years pace.

2 70 degree days so far in 2011

8 70 degree days by this date in 2010!

Until Friday temperatures were running -9.2 degrees so far in May in the metro. The 70 degree day was welcome tonic for warmth seeking Minnesotans. It actually felt warm inside your car sitting in the sun for the first time today...what a concept!

Mixed weather bag this weekend:

The Mother's Day weekend will be spring-like, but typically finicky. Here's the rundown.

-Friday night & Saturday morning:

Skies should be mostly dry with pleasant temps if you're out this Friday night. A weak weather disturbance sliding through will bring scattered showers late tonight into Saturday morning. There may be a few embedded T-Storms after midnight into early Saturday.

Rainfall should generally be light, under.24" in most areas. There could be some heavier totals over .50" with downpours in some areas that do get thunderstorms.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Saturday PM & Saturday night:

This looks to be the driest art of the weekend in between weather systems. Look for partly cloudy skies, and temperatures Saturday afternoon should recover into the mid to upper 60s in most areas. Wind E 5-10 mph.

Wet run for the roses?

You may want to pick a "mudder" in the Kentucky Derby Saturday. There's a chance for showers and T-Storms in the forecast in Lousiville.

Here's a great look at historical Derby weather.

Mother's Day:

This might be a great year to take mom to that indoor brunch. The next wave will move rapidly east on Mother's Day. Look for showers and a few T-Storms to increase during the morning, and they could linger into afternoon.

NAM model total weekend rainfall could add up to an inch west of the metro?

Showers may favor the northern half of Minnesota as the day wears on, and there could be some sunny hours in the south. The threat for severe weather appears low.

Temps should be in the 60s, with a few 70s popping up in southern Minnesota late Sunday. Winds SE 5-15 mph.

Season's first 80 next week?

Breaking news....summer weather will make a push into Minnesota early next week. We could feel the season's first 80 degree readings late Monday or Tuesday!

After what could be a rainy (& thundery?) start Sunday night into early Monday, it appears a warm front will push through southern Minnesota Monday PM.

We should bust out into a sunny, warm and somewhat more humid air mass. It looks like 70s are a lock on Monday. If everything plays out right, we could see our first 80 degree temps Tuesday afternoon in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

GFS model shows warm air in red surging north with 70s and maybe 80s in Minnesota Tuesday!

The best chance of thunderstorms will be in northern Minnesota...but it appears we'll see some boomers as a front sweeps trough late Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

May 6, 1965: Still the biggest tornado outbreak on record in the metro

In the insane Minnesota tornado year of 2010, one record still (thankfully) stands.

"Minnetonka" tornado on May 6, 1965

It was 46 years ago Friday that the biggest tornado outbreak in Twin Cities history occurred. Six tornadoes skipped across the metro area that night.

Tornado tracks & timing from May 6, 1965 (Click to enlarge)

The event marked several firsts in weather coverage in Minnesota. It was the first time civil defense sirens were sounded in severe weather, an event that would last until today.

It also marked the advent of continuous severe weather coverage on local radio, a fact which saved numerous lives that day and in the 46 years following.

Twin Cities NWS radar image from May 6,1965
(Note the multiple "hook" echoes)

It also marks my first living memory. I lived under a mile form the path of the "Cottagewood tornado" that tore through Deephaven at the time. My memories of that day are so vivid, If there was technology that could playback what was inside my head I could show you in HD what that day looked like. The hail was intense, and the sky an eerie green I have never seen since.

I can't recreate my memories, but if you get a chance to see this amazing book, take a look. The "Minnetonka Tornado Story in Pictures" by R.C. Jefferson is a local classic. I am fortunate to have a copy in the weather lab. It's tough to find, but if you can get your hands on it it's worth the price.

There are numerous stories (and maybe a few suburban legends) about that day. Some residents of Carsons Bay on Lake Minnetonka that I have talked to swear the tornado sucked up so much water as it crossed the bay that the water level rapidly dropped several feet. People on the eastern side of Carsons Bay said they saw fish flopping on the newly exposed lake bottom as the tornado swept by to the west.

I could go on and on and recreate the wheel on that day...but it may be better to review some of my earlier posts and other work on the 1965 Twin Cities tornado outbreak.

-Updraft post: "The Day the Tornadoes Came"

-Updraft Post: "What we've learned since about tornadoes since 1998"

-Twin Cities NWS summary of 1965 tornado outbreak

Seeley talks climate & weather:

As always, my MPR colleague (and birthday boy this week!) has a great summary of topics this week in his "Weather Talk" blog. Check it out. Mark's commentary is always insightful. It's a great read.

When it comes to understanding climate and Minnesota weather patterns, there's Mark...and there's the rest of us. Thanks to Mark for teaching me so much over the past few years!

Have a great weekend, and Happy Mother's Day!

PH

211 tornadoes! Biggest outbreak ever? Weekend weather changes

Posted at 5:29 PM on April 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Earthquakes, Tornadoes, Weekend

What a week.

This will go down as one of the most violent weather weeks in history. The numbers will continue to trickle in and change slightly over the weekend, but it's clear we've just witnessed one of the top tornado outbreaks in U.S. history.

By many measures this outbreak will rival the April 1974 "Super Outbreak" when final numbers are tallied.

Of course telling a story by numbers doesn't even begin to describe the magnitude of what the people in Alabama and the South have experienced this week.

That said, here's where the numbers stand as of late Friday, and how that compares to the super outbreak of April 3-4 1974.

211 preliminary tornado reports Wednesday from SPC

148 tornadoes during the "Super Outbreak" in 1974

363 total number of preliminary SPC tornado reports this week

329 dead in Wednesday's outbreak (numbers may still change)

335 killed in "Super Outbreak" in 1974

700 approximate number killed in the Tri-State Tornado in March 1925

228 dead in Alabama Wednesday

200+ mile long path on the Tuscaloosa tornado (could rival Tri-State Tornado of 1925)

160 miles...the distance tornadoes carried some of the debris

Wednesday's SPC tornado tally: (Click images to enlarge)

Mind boggling event:

It's hard to even process the magnitude of this week's tornado madness. Just think about the impact of one tornado hitting your home. Now try and imagine hundreds of massive tornadoes tearing up entire towns, and big chunks of whole states. Well I guess we don't have to imagine. Cable TV at its best is showing us all the tragic pictures.

Why such complete destruction?

There are several factors that made the damage in Wednesday's "super outbreak" so complete. The most obvious is the sheer size and fury of the twisters. Storm surveys are still in progress, but it is clear that some of these massive tornadoes were EF-4 and EF-5 "monsters." Wind speeds were likely well over 200 mph with some of these violent twisters. Not much is going to survive those kinds of wind speeds.

While many of the tornadoes were racing at speeds of 55 to 60 mph, there were times when some of the tornadoes appeared to slow down. This increased the time that damaging winds and debris had to tear away at homes and buildings.

Blender effect? The sheer volume and size of debris chunks spinning inside the tornado vortex created a "blender effect" in which missiles of various shapes & sizes travelling over 100mph acted like the blades of a blender, chopping anything in the tornadoes path to pieces.

Silent Monster?

One thing that's still puzzling about the Tuscaloosa tornado is why so many who viewed the tornado form a distance described it as "silent."

We know that wind affects sound waves. Is it possible that the tornado's inflow winds were so strong that they "sucked" some of the sound back into the vortex?

Who knows...but it seems odd that you can't hear the tornado in the distance.

Trucks: Instant tornado shelters?

Looking at video of the aftermath one very intriguing thing is becoming clear. Some people survived these violent tornadoes in their vehicles. Some probaly died in vehicles too. But then again, a lot of people died in their homes.

CNN ran a story today on a family in Concord, AL who rode out a direct hit inside their Honda Ridgeline truck parked in their garage. Their home was destroyed and they described the damage to their basement as "un-survivable" as debris collapsed into the basement.

Other video shows some vehicles tossed around and crushed, but many truck cabs while damaged appear to have been survivable.

There has been some debate in the meteorological community recently and a few studies suggesting that people may actually be safer in (especially weaker) tornadoes inside a heavy vehicle or truck than in a mobile home or poorly constructed home. This is a "hot button" topic that needs more research.

One thing is clear, in a tornado life and death decisions are made in seconds. There is no "totally safe" place in a tornado. Sometimes survival is going to be the luck of the draw, or the actions you take in the seconds before the tornado hits.

One of the best questions to ask in a tornado crisis is how can you put as many hardened "walls" as possible between you and the tornado before the twister hits?

It could be under the stairs in your basement, it could be in your bathtub, or in a closet. The pictures from the Alabama tornadoes and other evidence suggests if you're caught in the open... it may actually be the floor of your car or truck.

The "official" advice is still to abandon your vehicle during a tornado, cover your head and lie in the lowest spot you can find.

After looking at the sheer volume of deadly flying debris strewn about by the tornadoes in the South, you have to wonder if you'd have better protection in a vehicle.

Air Mail: Debris land over 160 miles away

Forgive the light headline, but this is amazing.

Again the story from CNN.

Climate change link? Probably not

Single meteorological events like this are likely not attributable to climate change. Check out this piece form Huffington Post. If tornado heavyweights like Howie Bluestein and Josh Wurman agree you can't pin this one on climate change, that's good enough for me.

Tri-State Tornado still the deadliest:

Believe it or not, Wednesday was not even close to the deadliest day in tornado history. That title still belongs (and hopefully always will belong) to the Tri-State Tornado of March 1925.

Here are the top 10 deadliest single tornadoes in U.S. history from the Tornado Project Online.

Here are the top 15 tornado outbreaks according to meteorologist H. Michael Mogil.

01. SUPER OUTBREAK
* April 3-4, 1974
* Large part of the eastern U.S.
* 148 tornadoes in 24 hours
* more than 330 deaths
* 6,142 injuries
* Damage $600+ million

Minnesota earthquake?

What's that you say? An earthquake in Minnesota? Yep. Believe it or not there are minor earthquakes centered in Minnesota from time to time.

Some thought they heard thunder.

Here's the data on the minor tremor that happened at 2:20am Friday near Alexandria.

Weekend Forecast: Changeable

What's that old saying about Minnesota weather? "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes."

There's your weekend forecast in a nutshell.

An upper level low-surface cold front combo moves through Friday night into early Saturday.

Friday Night: Expect scattered showers, with a few embedded T-Storms into early Saturday morning. Low near 50.

Saturday: AM Showers. Mixed sun PM with a few passing showers possible late. Temps steady to falling in the 50s. Wins SW 8-18 mph.

Sunday: Looks sunny but breezy and cool. High near 52. WNW winds 10-22 mph & gusty.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

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Weekend severe threat; Red River update

Posted at 5:41 PM on April 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Severe weather, Weekend

It will look, feel and possibly sound like spring this weekend in Minnesota!

A western storm will track east through Minnesota this weekend. As it approaches, we'll see a variety of weather conditions from sun, to clouds to rain & thunder to potentially severe weather.

Potentially stormy weekend weather set up. (Click all images to enlarge)

Let's break down the weekend forecast.

Friday Night: Dry high pressure means a beautiful, cool, dry Friday night. Look for increasing clouds from the south, with mainly clear skies north & east. Temps will fall through the 50s Friday evening with lows in the mid 40s south and frosty 30s north. Light SE winds.

GOES 1km visible satellite with dew point contours (isodrosotherms)

Weather tip: Look for the waxing "Maple Sap Moon" peeking through a few clouds in the western sky this evening. The moon will set just after midnight, at 12:18am Saturday morning.

Saturday: A warm front will push north through Iowa Saturday toward Minnesota. Ahead of the front, clouds, fog & drizzle may increase. Look for a mix of clouds, and some filtered sun peeking through at times Saturday.

If we get enough sun temps may push 70 in southern Minnesota. If not, temps will still climb into the 60s. Chance for a scattered shower or T-Storm later. SE winds between 7-12 mph.

Weather/phenology tip: Look for new shoots emerging form the landscape, including tulips, daffodils and crocus.

Saturday night: This is where things may get a little "interesting."

As the warm front pushes north, a surge of moisture and an increasing low level jet stream around 5k feet may trigger scattered showers & T-Storms. The best chance of a storm may come after midnight. There is a slight risk for a few severe storms according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Primary storm threats appear to be hail and high winds.

Temps should be steady in the lower 60s.

Weather tip: Look for lightning in the sky late Saturday night. Storms will be moving toward the north/northeast.

Sunday & Sunday night: Depending on which model solution wins out, Sunday may end up feeling like early summer with warm and more humid air pushing into the southern parts of Minnesota.

If the low moves far enough north & west, the "warn sector" may push as far north as the Twin Cities Sunday PM. That could mean sun will boost temps into the (upper?) 70s in the metro... and temps may push 80 degrees in Rochester & SE MN and western Wisconsin!

Increased humidity will also jump into the weather equation for the first time this year...and dew points could surge into the 60s! Yes, we may go from snow to warm & humid weather in just two weeks.

With the low nearby, the warm surge and increased humidity the chances for thunderstorms will increase Sunday. The best chances appear to be afternoon & evening. There is an increasing risk for severe storms packing damaging winds and large hail Sunday PM & evening.

Elevated "moderate risk" includes the Twin Cities Sunday.

With temps near 80, high humidity and plenty of spin or "shear" in the atmosphere Sunday, there is also a risk for a few of the storms to produce tornadoes.

Bottom line & weather tip: Be prepared for the risk of severe storms to bust out Sunday, especially PM & evening. This is the time to dig out the NOAA weather radio & brush up on your severe weather safety plan. We may get rocked by some loud thunder & severe storms Sunday.

We expect to have extra weather coverage on MPR News stations Sunday PM & evening if severe storms fire off.

-Storm Predition Center
-Twin Cities NWS

Red River Update:

As southern Minnesota rivers reach a second crest this weekend, the focus shifts north to the big brawling Red which is in major flood stage this weekend.

The forecast for the Red River remains pretty much status quo at this point.

Weekend rains may total 1" in the Red River basin, but there are some indications that the delay in runoff may prolong the crest, but not raise the level.

The official forecast from AHPS remains for a crest of 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday at this point.

Here's the verbiage from the Grand Forks NWS.

"HYDROLOGY...

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. OVERLAND
FLOODING PERSISTS AS THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT."

Stay tuned as we watch for changes in the weekend forecast and monitor the severe threat which will increase as we approach Sunday.

PH

Weekend: Light snow-then milder; bigger snow Thursday?

Posted at 3:52 PM on February 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend, Winter/spring 2011

Get ready for some signifcant weather changes in the next week.

Cold first:

The weekend will dawn cold in Minnesota. Sub-zero temps early Saturday will give way to highs in the teens Saturday with temps rebounding into the 20s to near 30 by Sunday.

The weekend starts on a chilly note Saturday morning.

Saturday snow?

As warm air mercifully pushes back toward Minnesota this weekend, light snow should break out Saturday as warm air overruns our relatively cold dome near the surface.

The computers are only printing out around .10" of liquid equivalent...but that could produce an inch or two of fluff with temps in the teens.

NAM model likes 1.9" of powder Saturday. FYI, GFS says 0.8"

It looks like there could be a few hours of very light snow Saturday afternoon. With temps in the teens, it won't take much snow to grease up some roads as road salt doesn't work as well below 20 degrees.

Milder Sunday with a "near miss?"

Sunday should feature milder temperatures as arctic air retreats. 20s should be common by afternoon, with a shot at 30 in southern Minnesota.

A fairly decent storm system should track near or south of Chicago Sunday into Monday.

That track should be far enough southeast of Minnesota to keep the heavy snow bands south of the metro, but a swath of 6"+ could possibly clip far southeast Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

Bigger snow next week?

After a fairly quiet start to next week, it looks like there is a chance of a bigger snow system by next Thursday. It's early, but the models are hinting at low pressure coming north Thursday, with a push of snowfall that could produce several inches somewhere close to home.

Stay tuned.....

No sign of spring...yet.

The longer range weather maps are still locked into a pattern that looks and feels a lot like late winter. It appears that seasonal temps and chances for snow could linger into mid-March this year.

Want some hope for spring? Upper air patterns become increasingly amplified and chaotic as we move into March in the northern hemisphere. The medium range forecast models have a tougher time catching the changes during this seasonal "transition."

It is quite possible to wake up any day now, and see a set of forecast maps that look a lot like spring...with a major surge of warm air heading for the Midwest.

While I'm hopeful that our warm up may be gradual for those at risk of flooding, I know that things can change very rapidly as we head into March.

Have a great weekend!

PH

Warmest in 36 days! Weekend snow & bigger thaw ahead?

Posted at 6:25 PM on February 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

Who knew 34 degrees could feel so good?

Most of Minnesota enjoyed temperatures above freezing Friday. It was the warmest day in over a month for most of the state.

Widespread 30s thawed Minnesota Friday

In the metro the temperature topped out at 34 degrees. That's the first day above freezing since December 30th, when we hit 42.

Weekend snow ahead:

Our next Alberta Clipper looks like it will bring some snow to Minnesota this weekend. I'm leaning more toward lighter totals in the 1" to 2" range for the metro and much of southern Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday.

Mega-Thaw ahead?

Okay...maybe I'm hyping a little here. But the medium-range (3 to 10 days) forecast models are hinting at the potential for an extended thaw starting next weekend. It's early...and the GFS is notoriously fickle that far out...but there is some run to run continuity suggesting that we could see 3 to 5 days of milder weather with temperatures above freezing.

It's also possible that the first 40 degree temp of 2011 could pop up on a bank or NWS thermometer somewhere near the metro in about 10 days.

There's hope...hang in there!

PH

Friday thaw? Weekend snow likely

Posted at 5:00 AM on February 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

This could be a great outdoor winter weekend.

Get set for some rapid weather changes, and finally some milder air to get out and enjoy the wintery landscape!

Milder Friday:

A milder Pacific air mass will glide into Minnesota today. Temperatures should push well into the 30s across most of Minnesota today. In fact the (welcome?) incursion of milder air has boosted temperatures into the mid 30s all the way north into central Canada as the air has spilled over the Canadian Rockies.

Milder Pacific air spilling in from the west.

A minor weather disturbance passing through Friday may bring some clouds and a few showers of snow and possible freezing rain or rain. Accumulations should be on the lighter side.

It looks like we'll enjoy milder air through the weekend, with temps in the 30s at least Friday & Saturday, and near 30 Sunday before temps nosedive again next week. Good timing for the weekend!!

Models pushing temps in the 30s this weekend?
(Click to enlarge)

Next significant snow: Saturday night & Sunday

It looks like our next decent weathermaker rolls in Saturday night. An Alberta Clipper will sail southeast toward Minnesota. Early indications are that snow could bust out in the eastern Dakotas Saturday and spread east into Duluth and the metro by Saturday evening.

It looks like most of the accumulating snow should come between about 9pm Saturday night and noon Super Bowl Sunday. Early solutions center around general 2" to 4" snowfall accumulations with the system, but more details should emerge in model runs tonight and Saturday morning.

It looks like we should prepare for another shot of snowfall Saturday night into Sunday.

Enjoy the warm up, and happy Friday!

PH

Weekend Forecast: Arctic air oozes south, Monday snow?

Posted at 4:44 PM on January 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Weekend

It was nice to hear the sound of dripping icicles (and roof dams?) for a change. At this time of the year, we can almost forget that water has a liquid phase in Minnesota.

Even though I shovel, I saw the deck boards on the weather lab deck Friday for the first time in months. At least there's hope!

Friday's clipper dumped a pretty good shot of snow to northeast Minnesota. Winter Storm Warnings for as much as 6" to 12" of new snowfall are keeping folks busy from Ely to the North Shore and Iron Range. Winds off of Lake Superior produced some "lake enhanced" snowfall totals near the North Shore.

As the clipper sails by winds will shift into the northwest again and colder air will ooze south again once more. This does not look as attention getting as the last cold air outbreak a week ago...but you'll notice the wintery encore by Sunday.

Next snow Monday?

The computers are battling it out again over the next potential snow maker moving this way Sunday night into Monday. Some of the model trends steer the bulk of the snow south into Iowa and southern Minnesota, and some trends indicate the metro could get clipped by a general area of 1" to 3"+ of snow. It's still a bit early in the process, but there may be at least some snow by rush hour Monday morning to contend with.

There's plenty to do this weekend including the Winter Carnival Grand Day Parade and ice sculptures in St Paul, and Pond Hockey North America Championships in Excelsior.

The weather should cooperate, but a cooler breeze Saturday with temps falling through the 20s will make it feel a little more like winter. By Sunday, temps in the single digits will remind us why the Winter Carnival is schedule this time of year!

Have a great weekend!

PH

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West Metro: Snow totals approach 1 foot! 2" to 4" more likely

Posted at 2:17 PM on November 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter storms

The west metro is in the heavy snow "bull's eye" for this storm.

Snow totals are approaching 1 foot now in the west metro. Here are some totals.

Eden Prairie 11"
New Hope 10.1"
Deephaven 10"
Amboy 10"
Forest Lake 10"
Minneapolis (NW side) 9"
Edina 9"
Prior Lake 9"
Bloomington 7.5"
Cambridge 6.5"
St Paul (Highland Park) 7"

A fresh 10" snowfall on the deck at the Huttner weather Lab at noon Saturday.

As expected the heaviest snow totals so far are in the west metro (6"-11"), with lower amounts in the far east metro (3"- 6").

Deck chairs sporting heavy Noevmber snow. Trees snapped under the weight of the snow in Deephaven.

A solid 10" on rainings, fences, trees and everything else.

Radar trends show "pivot point" east of metro:

Twin Cities radar loop this afternoon is showing the pivot point just east of the Twin Cities. This is the center of "spin" or axis around the low...and if it stays east of the metro snow will spin around the west side and keep snow going here. Snow bands will vary in intensity and spin through the metro and eastern Minnesota through tonight.

Snow intentisty will generally be lighter then the bursts of heavy wet flakes we saw this morning, but a few heavy snow bands may rotate through and drop visibility to around 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times.

Surface low tracks west:

At 1:30pm today the surface low pressure center is between Rochester and La Crosse. This is a little farther west than forecast. This may mix in a little rain in the far east and southest metro and along the St. Criox Valley...think Hudson, Afton, Hastings and Red Wing.

Surface plot shows low center spinning between Rochester and La Crosse.
(click for bigger image)

Temps above freezing:

I can tell you that roads in the west metro are VERY slick today. A mix of slush & compacted ice. Crews are out...but travel is very difficult. One thing working in our favor with this storm is that temperatures are just above freezing in most places.

Warm ground may have melted the first inch or two...but intense snowfall rates overnight overcame any surface melting in a hurry.

With lower snowfall rates and temps above freezing, most areas may see another 2" to 4" overnight.

PH

Forecast Update: Storm rolls in: 6" to 12" likely in metro

Posted at 12:10 AM on November 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter storms

Update 1am:

First snow of the season accumulates on the weather lab deck!

Preicp is likely to stay all snow in most of the metro...except the far east where it could still mix with rain and sleet at times Saturday.

Road conditions will be slick Saturday! Expcect slick roads...remember a winter storm warning is in effect!

Best bet at snow totals by Sunday night:

Possible Metro totals:

6"-12" Waconia-Lake Minnetonka-Maple Grove-Rogers-Elk River-Anoka.

4"-8" Prior Lake-Bloomington-Minneapolis-St. Paul-White-Bear Lake-Hugo.

2" to 5" Hastings- Cottage Grove-Hudson-Stillwater.

Possible Minnesota & Wisconsin totals:

6"-12" Fairmont-Mankato-west metro-Hinckley-Duluth.

4"-8" Owatonna-St. Paul-Grantsburg.

2"-5" Rochester-Red Wing-Rice Lake.

We still need to keep an eye on the potential for warm air wrapping into the system that COULD change snow over to rain in the metro Saturday. IF that happnes..it could reduce amounts accordingly.

-Twin Cities NWS

-Twin Cities radar loop

-MNDOT traffic cams

PH

Update 12:00am Saturday:

Storm Headlines:

-Rain snow mix moving into metro

-Radar "bright banding" indicates possible heavy snow band moving in

-MNDOT traffic cam confirms

-Late model runs support heavy snow event for metro

Check out the MNDOT traffic cam shot from I-35 and Co Rd. 60 south of the metro. Image shows heavier snow falling under doppler radar "bright band" moving into metro around midnight.

Twin Cities NEXRAD shows "bright bands" moving into metro and Rochester.

These brighter colors on doppler usually indicate higher reflectivity associated with big wet snowflakes.

Model runs support heavy snow:

The late night model runs support the idea of heavy snow (6" to 12" totals) in the metro by late Sunday. The rain snow line appears to be setting up in the far east metro Saturday.

1 1 1 qpf snow.bmp

Stay tuned for updates...and be safe and enjoy the snow!

PH

Update: 5:40pm:

Storm Headlines:

-Winter storm warnings flying now on a Fairmont-Mankato-West Metro-Hinckley line.

-Rain and snow spreading north overnight.

-Latest computer runs cranking out 6" to 12" of heavy wet wind-whipped snow Saturday and Sunday in winter storm area.

-Rain snow line progged to set up in east metro Saturday...could reduce snow amounts in east metro.

-Big snowfall range across Twin Cites with this storm. 6" to 12" possible west metro...4" to 8" possible central... 2" to 6" possible east...all rain in much of Wisconsin.

It's on.

The season's first major winter storm is winding up and moving into Minnesota. This is the time when we pull the trigger on making some snow call for winter storms. Like most Minnesota winter storms...this one still is not a slam dunk. The models have come into better agreement today....but a change in the rain snow line by 30 miles could mean the difference between mostly rain and a foot of heavy wet snow in the Twin Cities this weekend.

Here's the scenario.

The track:

The forecast track for the surface low is ideal for heavy snow for the western Twin Cities and central Minnesota.

Temperature:

The thermal profile for this storm sets up the "critical" 32-degree isothem in the lowest mile of the atmosphere right into the eastern metro for most of Saturday.

That should mean the infamous "rain/snow line" will wave over the east metro, and bring mixed and changeable precip. Expect rain/sleet/snow at times in the east metro Saturday...before enough cold air wraps in to change things over to all snow by Saturday night into Sunday morning.

NAM critical 850 millibar chart (5,000 feet) shows freezing line over the east metro Saturday.

Thundersnow?

There may be enough "upward vertical velocity" with the storm to produce thundersnow in or close to the metro late Saturday into Sunday morning. Snowbursts can occur...with brief snowfall rates of 1" to 2"+ per hour in thundersnow.

Expect rain/snow to move north into the metro between 9pm- midnight, and spread north overnight. Wind whipped snow should continue for much of the area Saturday...with all snow by Sunday.

Metro "meteogram" cranking out 4" to 8" snowfall for Twin Cities Airport. Totals could be higher in west metro...lower in the east metro by late Sunday.

Duluth meteogram cranking out potential 12" snowfall totals.

As they say in hurricane statements.... all preparations should be rushed to completion tonight in Minnesota.

Get ready for a wintery blast this weekend!

PH

Update 3:35pm:

Our first major winter storm of the season is winding up to the south tonight and moving north into Minnesota.

The latest model trends are coming together around a solution that puts heavy snow on a Fairmont-Mankato-Glencoe-Hutchinson-Annandale-Rogers line this weekend. On this track, the western metro (Waconia-Lake Minnetonka-Maple Grove-Elk River) may fall into the heavy snow band, which could produce 6" to 12" snowfall totals this weekend.

It looks like the thermal profile of this system will set up the rain snow line in the east metro, where precip may change phase between rain, sleet and snow. It could be all rain in most of western Wisconsin.

Stay tuned...more on the way!

PH

The morning and midday models runs are in, and it looks like a major winter storm is on the way for much of central Minnesota, possibly including the Twin Cities metro.

The model differences from yesterday seem to have (mostly) worked themselves out...and it looks like more snow than rain for most of Minnesota Saturday.

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for much of Minnesota for the possibility of heavy snow Saturday into Sunday.

The models are cranking out as much as 2" of liquid precipitation, and if that falls as all snow, it's going to be a huge pile of wind whipped snowfall.

NAM model cranking out 6" to 12" of heavy wet snow near the western metro this weekend.

Stay tuned for updates on MPR news 91.1FM this weekend, and watch Updraft for more details on the storm later today.

Bottom line: Get set for heavy snow tonight and Saturday into Sunday.

PH

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Weekend Snowcast: Still major model differences

Posted at 5:08 PM on November 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

The weather lab "crystal ball" is still a bit cloudy on the weekend forecast.

Thursday's model runs haven't solved anything when it comes to an accurate prediction for rain or snow in the metro this weekend.

The NAM model favors mostly rain well into Saturday, with a changeover to wet snow late Saturday into Sunday. This would push the heaviest snow band back to the west of the metro. If this scenario unfolds the heaviest snow band (possibly 5" to 10") could fall along a Worthington, Redwood Falls, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Grand Rapids line.

The Twin Cities and points south and east would see mostly rain, then a changeover to wet snow later Saturday. This would keep snow amounts down in the metro, and would be a "mostly rain" scenario for the metro.

84 hour NAM model snowfall paints heavy snow band into central Minnesota, with mostly rain for the metro.

Another model, the GFS, is leaning more heavily toward a rain snow line setting up on the east side of the metro. If this scenario plays out the western Twin Cities could fall within the heavy snow band and pick up a significant "plowable" snow starting Friday night and lasting into Sunday.

GFS model favors heavier snowfall from the metro northeast into northwest Wisconsin.

NOAA 3-day precip outlook painting heavy precip. Will it be rain or snow in the metro?

It's still too early to tell how this thing is going to play out this weekend regarding the rain snow line and resulting snowfall amounts.

I'll keep this pretty short today, not going to post a bunch of unrelated weather or climate stories for you to wade through from around the world. Let's keep our eye on the ball this weekend and stay focused on Minnesota's first big potential snow of the season.

Bottom line: If you are planning travel this weekend be ready for rain, snow, or both pretty much anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Stay tuned for forecast updates as the models roll in Friday.

PH

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Weekend storm likely to bring 1st snow

Posted at 9:12 AM on November 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

It had to happen sooner or later.

A low pressure system spinning up from the south will bring a mixed bag of cold rain and snow to Minnesota this weekend. The big question...how much will fall as rain vs. snow?

The system:

An upper level low pressure system is spinning through the desert southwest today, and will move into the southern plains and wind up a surface low Friday. The low will deepen and move north into Iowa and Wisconsin Saturday.

The precip shield:

Latest indications are the rain shield will spread slowly north Friday from Iowa into far southeast Minnesota. There are still significant model differences, but trends indicate the northern edge of the rain shield should move into the greater metro area late Friday night or in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Computer models are cranking out a potential .50" and 1" of precipitation for central Minnesota, through the metro and into western Wisconsin with this system.

NAM model cranks out .50" to near 1" precip near the metro by early Sunday.

Rain or snow?

The temperature profile with this storm will be the single biggest factor deciding who gets a cold rain...or a pile of heavy, wet, plowable snow and slush.

Right now it appears the critical 32 degree temperature threshold (or rain/snow line) will set up very close to the Twin Cities metro Saturday. This could mean mostly rain in the east metro, and mostly snow in the west metro Saturday, with a trend toward all snow by early Sunday morning.

NAM 850 millibar temp profile shows critical freezing line (rain/snow) very near the Twin Cities Saturday.

Some of the forecast models paint a relatively narrow band of heavy snow from near Fairmont, to Mankato into the far west metro toward Mora and Hinckley. Willmar and St. Cloud may also fall into the heavy snow area under this scenario.

If the rain/snow line sets up through the metro...there could be a HUGE difference in snowfall amounts. There may literally be an inch or less in the east metro....and maybe 5" to 10"+ just west of the Twin Cities.

NAM model snowfall paints a scary scenario of heavy snow just west of the metro by Sunday morning.

The bottom line is...be READY for wintery weather and poor travel conditions this weekend from the metro west and north.

We'll try and pin things down a bit late on Friday as we get another day's worth of model runs (which come in every 6 hours) to grab onto the system as it moves out of the southwest. A change in the rain snow line of 40 miles could mean the difference between mostly rain...and a pile of heavy wet snow in the metro!

Stay tuned....

A trend toward milder Minnesota Novembers?

Our recent warm spell has Minnesotans talking about the weather.

There is evidence of a distinct trend over the past decade toward milder weather during November in Minnesota. Check out these numbers.

-Wednesday's record high of 68 degrees in the metro was 25 degrees above average for the date. 68 is the average high in the metro for May 11th!

-November 2010 temperatures running +9.2 degrees through the first 10 days in the metro.

-The 4 consecutive days of 60 degree plus temperatures this month marks the 3rd latest (tie) date on record that such warmth has occurred.

-4 of the 6 latest (and longest) stretches of November warmth have occurred since 2001, including the past 3 years in a row. (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010.)

-Every November since 2004 has been warmer than average in the metro. Temperatures during that time have ranged from +1.5 to +9.6 degrees during November.

-Every November since 2004 has featured below average snowfall in the Twin Cities. November average snowfall in the metro is about 10". November metro snowfall has ranged from a trace to 5.1" during past 6 years.

Twin Cities AMS presents Minnesota Tornadoes 2010:

The Twin Cities chapter of the American Meteorological Society offers a presentation entitled "Minnesota Tornadoes of June 17, 2010: A Review and Discussion" this Friday evening at The University of St. Thomas in St Paul at 6:30pm.

The event is free and open to the public, and all are encouraged to attend.

PH

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Indian Summer weekend: Snow chance next week?

Posted at 5:30 PM on November 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

Get set for Indian Summer Minnesota style.

This weekend should feature the mildest weather for (possibly) the rest of the fall season. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above average this weekend in Minnesota. The average high this weekend in the Twin Cities is 45 degrees.

Here's the breakdown of the weekend forecast:

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy & milder. Highs mid 50s south, near 50 north. Wind S-SW 10-20 mph & gusty.

Sunday: Plenty of mild sun, less wind. Highs near 60 south, 50s north. Wind south 5-15 mph.

The mild weather looks like it will linger into Monday with highs again pushing 60 in southern Minnesota.

Chance of snow next week?

Forecast models are winding up a low pressure system in the southern plains next week. The models differ on track & timing, but there is a potential that parts of Minnesota could see snow next Thursday night into Friday. The thermal profile for the storm is still in question....in other words where will the freezing (or rain-snow) line be Thursday night and Friday morning.

GFS model cranking out precip for eastern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday.

It looks like the storm may begin as rain Thursday evening...with the potential to change to snow overnight somewhere in central Minnesota...possibly including the metro.

Stay tuned.

Forum: Minnesota Tornaodes 2010

Here's a great event for weather geeks next week. The Twin Cities Chapter of the AMS will present a forum on Minnesota's record breaking year in 2010. The event is at the University of St. Thomas next Friday evening at 6:30pm, and is open to the public.

Details here.

Enjoy the great weekend weather!

PH

Perfect Weekend Forecast: A shot at 60?

Posted at 5:46 PM on November 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

This weekend looks like a "perfect 10" for early November. It could also be the best weekend for the rest of the year. It may be a short Indian Summer this year...but at least we'll get a taste over the next few days.

After a frigid start Friday morning featuring the coldest temps so far this season in Minnesota, A ridge of high pressure will push milder air into Minnesota this weekend.

Both Saturday and Sunday look to feature plenty of sunshine and rapidly rebounding temperatures after cool mornings.

Forecast modles hint at temps pushing 60 degrees in the metro Sunday.
(click for bigger image)

With plenty of (albeit weaker) November sun, temperatures will rebound nicely into the 50s this weekend and on Monday. Enough mild air will filter in by Sunday and Monday that some bank thermometers could flash 60 degrees both Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Average highs this weekend are around 45 degrees for the metro and southern Minnesota, and upper 30s to near 40 up north. Temperatures should run 10 to 15 degrees above average by Sunday.

Changes ahead:

Enjoy the coming warm spell; it looks like a strong northwest flow in the upper atmosphere will emerge later next week. This will likely bring a family of cold fronts surging south from Canada in the next 7 to 14 days.

Here's some advice form your friendly neighborhood weatherman. Take full advantage of the milder weather this weekend!

PH

Metro frost; Decent Halloween; Indian Summer ahead

Posted at 5:00 PM on October 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Weekend

The metro area escaped frost Thursday morning. A frosty start Friday looks like a slam dunk.

Wind and clouds kept surface temperatures just above freezing early Thursday. The mercury bottomed out at 35° early Thursday. That adds one more (albeit chilly) day to the 2010 metro growing season which began on May 9th.

If the first 32 degree reading at Twin Cities Airport occurs Friday morning as forecast, it will tie for the 9th latest 32 degree temperature occurrence in the Twin Cities on record.

Recipe for frost:

Weather conditions look ideal for frost Friday morning. Here's the recipe:

-Clear skies
-Light winds
-Daytime temps below 45°F
-Dew points in the 20s.

These conditions allow maximum "radiational cooling" to plunge temperatures below the freezing point in the early morning hours.

Locations that have not yet seen frost in southern Minnesota will see the season's first frost Friday morning. Prepare accordingly.

Improving Forecast:

The weather will mellow over the next week in Minnesota. The warming trend starts Friday as temperatures will recover into the 50s.

Paul's Weekend Forecast:

Friday: Frosty start, fine finish. Filtered sun through a few high clouds. High 53. Wind S-SW 5-15.

Saturday: Mixed sun & clouds. Cool. High 49. Wind NE 5-10.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 50. Wind E 5-10.

Halloween Trick or Treatcast: Clear skies, light winds. Temps in the 40s. A solid 6 on a scale of 1 to 10!

Indian Summer next week?

Forecast models hint at a leaning ridge of high pressure builds in by the middle of next week. This should mean a gradual warming trend with cool nights and increasingly mild days. Temperatures should push the 60 degree mark in southern Minnesota by Wednesday, and that pattern could last into next weekend. That would put temperatures a good 12 degrees above average. Good enough in my book for Indian Summer after our first frost Friday.

Look for another dry, mild and quiet weather pattern by the middle of next week!

First big snow in sight??

It's wayyyy out in the medium range forecast models and could be pure fiction at this point...but the models are hinting at the potential for our first big snow in southern Minnesota the weekend of November 13-14.

GFS model hints at potential snow maker by November 13th. Possibly pure fiction that far out...but worth watching.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

My storm's bigger than your storm!

Check out this and this from the AMS blog. I guess our October Superbomb has some weather and climate gurus a little jealous. For the record, I don't see a case here for a lower barometer than this week's Minnesota Superstorm...and storms over open ocean don't count!

Tuesday's "Octobomb" winds up over Minnesota.

Then of course there's that old joke about getting 10 meteorologists in a room and getting 13 different forecasts.

PH

Longest dry spell in 30 years, rain returns

Posted at 5:18 PM on October 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Fall, Weekend

Welcome to Minnesota, land of extreme weather. This is the place where weather extremes shift from record floods to record dryness in a month.

Friday was the 27th consecutive day without measureable rainfall in the Twin Cities. That's the longest dry spell in in the metro 30 years. The longest dry spell in 30 years!

The 27 day drought marks the 8th longest dry stretch on record in the Twin Cities since 1871. The last time we had this many dry days in a row was April & May 1980. The longest dry spell on record was 51 days spanning 1943-44. Here are the details from the Twin Cities NWS.

Warm too:

Not only is October 2010 bone dry, temperatures are running a full 6°F above average as well. Even as the weather turns (significantly) colder next week, we're going to finish the month above average. It's just a question of how far above average. October marks the 7th month of the past 8 going back to March that temperatures have been above average in Minnesota.

The image below shows mean atmospheric thickness patterns at 500mb (18,000 feet) over the northern hemisphere during the past 30 days. Above average thickness (ridging) in the upper atmosphere over Minnesota has lead to our Mediterranean climate over the past month.

Rain on the way:

The timing could be better, but this weekend marks the beginning of a change to a wetter and colder weather pattern for Minnesota. It looks like our dry spell will come to and end Saturday. Low pressure tracking through Iowa will push rain showers north into Minnesota Saturday and Sunday. The first wave could arrive Saturday morning.

I don't think the whole weekend will be a wash out, but expect occasional showers both days. Rainfall amounts look light, with most areas picking up between .25" and .50" this weekend.

Stronger system late Monday?

All signs point to a stronger low pressure storm moving into the Upper Midwest late Monday and Tuesday. This could be our first classic fall storm, with a big rain shield spreading in from west to east later on Monday and lingering through Tuesday. There will be a lot of wind with this one...these big "mid-latitude cyclones" pack a punch if they get wound up. And this one looks like it may do just that.

The latest model runs hint that we may catch a break in the clouds early Monday, and that combines with a stiff southerly wind ahead of the low may boost temps into the 60s to near 70 in parts on Minnesota Monday.

Once the rain arrives, temps will fall into the 50s and 40s. It looks like the next system may be warm enough for all rain.

This system looks to bring a good widespread soaking rain to much of the Upper Midwest. Many locations could see rainfall of 1"+ by Tuesday night.

Season's coldest air next week:

Powerful northwest winds will yank down the season's coldest air mass behind the system on Wednesday. It looks like temperatures may be cold enough for the season's first frost and 32 degree temperature at Twin Cities Airport by Thursday morning. It also looks like moisture may be gone by then...keeping the threat for the season's first snowflakes in the metro at bay.

Decent Halloween?

Early signs point to a decent day for Halloween a week from Sunday. The outlook may change...but my early look says clear to partly cloud skies and temps near 50. Not bad for the last day of October!

Hope you got some yard work done today...enjoy the pitter patter of rain that you haven't heard for a month this weekend.

PH

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Texas closes "tornado gap"

Posted at 3:38 PM on September 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes, Weekend

It was a good week for Texas tornadoes.

As many as 7 tornadoes touched down in Texas on Wednesday. Though there was damage and a few injuries, thankfully no one was killed in the outbreak.

The tornadoes were spawned by the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine as it swirled through the state this week. Some of the tornadoes formed in the Dallas area, including this one captured on video.

I'm keeping a close eye on the Texas tornado numbers. Minnesota still has a wide lead with 145 preliminary tornado reports this year according the SPC count. This week's tornado outbreak in Texas brings their second place total up to 94. As you would expect, Texas has lead the nation 7 of the past 10 years in overall tornado numbers.

Texas will likely (unfortunately) add to their tornado totals during the fall severe weather season. Hopefully, Minnesota's numbers will stay at or near 145. Both states will likely see final numbers revised downward about 15% when the final confirmations are complete and multiple sightings of the same tornado are eliminated.

If Minnesota leads the nation in tornadoes this year, it will be the first time on record that has occurred. We have already set records that will insure2010 will go down as the most active severe weather year in Minnesota history.

Weekend forecast: Rain then sun

Look for scattered rain and maybe a clap of thunder Friday night into early AM Saturday. The culprit is a front which will push east of Minnesota early Saturday. That should give way to sunshine as the day progresses, and set us up for a warmer and mostly sunny Sunday, with just an isolated shot at a stray thundershower.

Enjoy the weekend.

PH

Weekend forecast: Sunnier and warmer

Posted at 4:00 PM on September 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

For once it appears the timing is working out right.

Rain chances will linger through Friday in Minnesota. A Pacific front will drag a band of showers through Minnesota Friday. The showers will favor western Minnesota early Friday and move into eastern Minnesota Friday later on the afternoon and evening.

There may be a few thundershowers as the front moves through later Friday, but it appears any severe weather will likely be south of Minnesota.

A few showers may linger in eastern Minnesota overnight into the wee hours of Saturday morning, before the front sweeps the clouds away early Saturday. The sun should emerge this weekend, and that will help temperatures respond to around 70 in the south Saturday. Sunday may be the warmest day of the next week, with temps pushing well into the 70s in the metro.

Rainfall Friday may fall into the .25" to .50" range for much of Minnesota.

Enjoy what looks like a classic and beautiful September weekend for all outdoor activities.

PH

Pretty good weekend

Posted at 6:25 PM on September 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: State Fair, Weekend

Two seasons in one week. From July to October in 4 days. Welcome to September in Minnesota.

State Fair time brings a wide variety of weather to Minnesota, and we got it all this week. At least it has never snowed at the Fair!

We hit 94 degrees on Sunday and 92 on Monday in the metro. The high on Friday was just 61 degrees, and with the gusty NW winds it felt more like the upper 40s and low 50s.

That's a 33 degree temps drop in just one week. We've gone from tank tops to stadium blankets in the course of four days.

Friday's high of 61 was the coldest day in nearly 4 months in the metro. The last time we were this cool was on May 13th when the mercury managed just 53 degrees.

Weekend weather improves.

Just in time for the weekend.

High pressure will build in this weekend in Minnesota. The result will be more sun, less wind and warmer temps.

Here's the breakdown:

Saturday: Mostly sunny and a bit breezy. Highs in the 60s north to near 70 south. NW wind 10-20mph, fading in the late afternoon.

Sunday: The best day of the weekend? Mostly sunny. Light winds. Highs upper 60s north and 70s south.

Labor Day: Sun early gives way to clouds PM. Chance of showers and thunderstorms from west (AM/PM) to east (PM/evening). Breezy. Highs 60s north to 70 south, Wind SE increasing to 12-22 mph.

Summer lovers will be happy that it looks like temps push 80 again next week.

(click for bigger image)

MPR Weather at the Fair:

It was great to be a part of the Morning Edition team with Cathy Wurzer, Mark Seeley, and Morning Edition producers Jim Bickal and Curtis Gilbert today. Thanks to all the great fans that stopped by to say hello.

Some of you commented on the amazing cloud formations Thursday evening. The cold front blew through the metro around 6pm Thursday night. As the front came through, it triggered a broken line of low topped thundershowers that pelted parts of the metro with downpours and even small hail. Here are two photos I snapped as the front blew through.

Cumulonimbus anvil west of Bennett Park in Minnetonka.
(Photos by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger image)

Mamatus clouds on the back side of thundershower over Minneapolis.

All Things Considered Host Tom Crann and I will be at the MPR booth at the corner of Judson and Nelson from 11am to 1pm Saturday. Please stop by and say hello!

Here are a couple of pics form the Fair today.

A crowded Carnes Ave. under a gray sky and a brisk breeze Friday.

Molly C. serves up some cookies at Sweet Martha's. It was her first day at work. (Hey boss, she did a great job.)

And finally one gratuitous sunset shot from Lake Minnetonka Tuesday evening.

Gale Island soaks up the sunset as sun peeks through broken cumulus clouds.

Have a great holiday weekend!

PH

Earl, Minnesota tornadoes, and a pretty good weekend.

Posted at 4:50 PM on September 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Weekend

Talk about a close call.

As Hurricane Earl sideswipes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the next potential target is battening down the hatches.

Cape Cod appears to be in line for another close encounter with Earl late Friday night.

Earl finally made the expected turn to the north-northeast late Thursday.

Though Earl is expected to weaken a bit ("weaker hurricane"...there's an oxymoron for you) it may still bring hurricane force winds to Cape Cod this weekend.

Gaston Next?

After Earl's east coast encounter all eyes will turn toward Gaston. Fiona is forecast to fizzle, but Gaston has at least some potential become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico and will bear watching next week.

Minnesota tornadoes generate international interest:

Not to overstate this, but I found it interesting to get a call today from a reporter in Canada about Minnesota's tornado numbers this year. Shane Judge is a reporter for the CBC News in Thunder Bay, Ontario. It seems our 145 preliminary tornado reports are getting some attention north of the border.

Shane says the meteorologists at Environment Canada (Canada's version of the National Weather Service) are reporting increased severe weather numbers this year in southwestern Ontario as well. You never think of Atikokan as tornado alley, but in this crazy summer it seems anything is possible.

Tanker runs aground in ice free Arctic:

It seems our new ice free summers in the Arctic are creating new opportunities and potential hazards for shipping. Check this out from CBC.

Pretty Good Weekend:

After Friday's foray into fall, the weather will mellow this weekend.

Look for a blustery Friday with highs on the 60s and a brisk gusty northwest wind at 15 to 30 mph over the lakes. Showers will spit rain in northeast Minnesota, and may roll down I-35 to just north and east of the metro by Friday PM.

Saturday and Sunday look spectacular statewide, and will be the best days to enjoy one last summer boat trip onto your favorite lake.

Look for plenty of sun, lighter winds and highs in the 60s Saturday with 70s statewide Sunday. Overnight lows will be nippy in the 40s north and near 50 south.

Labor Day will feature a strong southeast wind, a little more warmth and humidity and a chance of scattered thunderstorms.

PH

Warm dry summer weekend

Posted at 1:43 PM on August 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Weekend

For once, the timing is perfect for a classic Minnesota summer weekend.

A building ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere should give us a rare sunny, very warm and storm free summer weekend. By my count we've had either severe weather or rain on 5 of the past 8 weekends this summer in Minnesota dating back to late June.

High temperatures this weekend should be in the 80s pretty much statewide, except along the North Shore where temps will be in the 70s near the lake. The mercury will push 90 in southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro area.

The warm dry (more typical) late August weather will linger through Monday. The next chance for any thunder appears to be on Tuesday as a cool front sweeps through, and sweeps away much of the humidity leaving a cooler more comfortable pre fall air mass with temperatures in the 70s and dew points in the 50s.

MPR warning generates tornado picture:

Check out the photo of this tornado from August 11th near St. James. It's an interesting study in how modern technology, MPR's statewide network and aware listeners combined to capture the photo and potentially keep people out of harm's way.

Weather savvy MPR listener Jay Knaak describes the events in an email after listening to warnings on MPR's International Falls 88.1FM.

From: Jay Knaak
Posted At: Friday, August 20, 2010 9:59 AM
Posted To: Press Releases - MN
Conversation: Tornado
Subject: Tornado

To MPR:
Just thought this was something interesting to tell you about his. Recently I was listening to MPR on 88.1 International Falls where I live. A tornado warning was issued for southern MN near St.James MN on Aug 11th, where I was raised. Warning was for 5 miles north and 4 miles west of the town. I text my Mom and asked her if she was close to it. She was in a neighboring town but called a friend near the warning, who was previously unaware of the tornado . The friend went outside and looked around, and snapped this cell phone picture. MPR could have potentially saved lives and at least prompted a good picture. Good job MPR
Jay Knaak

It's amazing what a few heads up people and a little modern technology can do to stay ahead of Mother Nature.

I'm away for a much needed vacation next week in northern Minnesota. Craig Edwards will capably steer the MPR weather ship form the Eden Prairie Weather Lab South next week.

Have a great weekend!

PH