Updraft Category Archive: Warm fronts

Shockingly hot this afternoon; welcome showers northwest Minnesota

Posted at 6:17 AM on May 14, 2013 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)
Filed under: Record, Urban Heat Island, Warm fronts

After starting the month of May with record snowfall, we now are looking the first shot of hot air for much of southern and central Minnesota.

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was moving across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this morning. The debris clouds from the dissipating storms will slow the temperature climb somewhat for northern Minnesota.

Screen capture from 617 a.m. CDT:

Source:Weather Underground

With the long daylight hours and the warmth of a May sun, the mercury will surge to the lower and middle 90s on increasing southwest winds. A rogue thermometer in south central Minnesota may reach the upper 90s:

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A closer look at regional high temperatures today shows the expansive area of very warm afternoon temperatures. Take it easy in the heat of the day.

This table depicts the computation of heat index values provided by the National Weather Service:

Please be cautious if you are participating in any activity that puts you in the midday sunshine. You will also be exposed to potential for sunburn.

You can refer to this website for more information on heat safety.

The heat burst will be short-lived as a cool front slides through Minnesota tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be more comfortable.

NAM surface temperatures and wind forecast for Wednesday at 4 p.m. CDT
Source:NOAA/College of DuPage

Bouts of showers and thunderstorms are in store from Thursday night through the weekend. While the rain may be untimely for your planned events, it will be welcomed by the farmers.

Perhaps this afternoon is a good time to dust off the air conditioning unit!

Craig Edwards

Changes blowing in the wind

Posted at 3:25 PM on March 26, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Freezing rain, Frost, Spring 2012, Warm fronts

A strengthening low pressure system in southwest North Dakato is ushering in milder temperatures through Nebraska into South Dakota. The leading surge of warmer air, depicted as a warm front, ignited showers and thundershowers in southwest Minnesota. Thundershowers are expected early this evening in eastern Minnesota.

Snapshot of radar at 330PM.

The regional short term model from the Chanhassen NWS Office presents this simulation of radar reflectivity at 7PM.

Winds have been gusting as high as 45 mph in western Minnesota (Worthington) this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect overnight and into Tuesday for southern and central Minnesota. Winds are not expected to ease off until late Tuesday.

Overnight, the rain advancing north will meet up with colder and drier air at the surface. This will result in freezing rain in far northern and northeast Minnesota. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been posted for a small corner of the Arrowhead.

Milder air will be positioned over southern Minnesota on Tuesday ahead of the advancing low pressure system. Temperatures are likely to soar well above normal once again.

The Twin Cities should top out near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon. But the strong winds will detract from enjoying an outdoor lunch,

If you enjoy tracking the records from the unseasonably warm spell the last couple of weeks, the Chanhassen NWS Office has updated the details of the record warmth and dew points.

Our friends at the State Climate Office shared this nugget of information with regard to the outlook for frost in the months of April and May based on their study of historically warm temperatures in March. Using the past as our window to the future, it is apparent that a warm March offers us no obvious indication about when the final spring frost will occur. 139 years of Twin Cities temperature data were reviewed. The final spring frost can occur as late as mid May.

The GFS model that extends out two weeks paints a picture of more changes in the wind in the first week or so of April. Perhaps a reversal of the warm weather that we've enjoyed? We'll have to wait and see.
CE

Warm front may trigger thunderstorms

Posted at 12:38 PM on June 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Warm fronts

Severe weather outlook for later today and tonight from Storm Prediction Center.

An advancing warm front, with plenty of heat and increasing humidity, may ignite thunderstorms tonight. Be aware for developing thunderstorms, mainly after dark. The greatest threat from strong storms appears to be large hail.

Heat and humidity dominate Monday and Tuesday in the southern half of Minnesota before a cold front slices through the upper Midwest on Wednesday.
CE

Forecast: Major rain event late Wednesday & Thursday?

Posted at 2:43 PM on September 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Warm fronts

Update 2:40pm

The latest forecast models coming in indicate the potential for a major rainfall event for parts of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities metro area.

It now appears at least two waves of rain and thunder may roll in starting Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday night, some areas could be swamped with anywhere from 2" to as much as 4"+ in the wettest scenario. Localized flooding could be an issue by Thursday night into Friday morning.

NWS and modles cranking out at least 2" rainfall for the metro through Thursday.
(Click for bigger image)

The first wave may roll into eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities anytime after 3pm Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night. The second wave may brew Thursday.

The air to the south of the warm front with this system will be very warm and unstable. There is a risk for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The Twin Cities appears to be right on the northern edge of the potential severe risk area.

Enjoy the tranquil weather tonight and early Wednesday, then be ready to batten down the hatches for potentially heavy rain by late Wednesday and Thursday.

PH

Original post 9:00 am

You gotta love September in Minnesota.

We've had several frosty mornings in northeast Minnesota last weekend. Then came Monday.

It started cool, with Octoberish temperature levels in the 50s under a steely sky. It was 52 in the Twin Cities at 5:43am. Okay, that's pretty normal stuff for late September.

That was before the super turbo charged warm front blasted in from Iowa. As skies cleared and the sun popped out Monday afternoon south of the warm front, temperatures shot up anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees in just a few hours.

It hit 90 in Luverne, St. James, Mankato, and Fairmont. The temperature spike continued after sundown, with the Twin Cities reaching the daily high of 80 degrees at 11:37pm!

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
201 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 80 1137 PM

(Click for bigger image)

I saw a July-like 97 degrees Monday in northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

Check out the temperature surge as the front pushed north Monday afternoon.

Overnight rumblers:

As a cool front swept through overnight, a few storms rumbled along with it. Here are some rainfall totals.

Twin Cities Airport .56"
St. Paul .40"
Eden Prairie .17"

There were also a few hail reports and some tree branches down. Hail fell with one particular cell as it crossed from near Twin Cities Airport, into Highland Park and onto Hudson, Wisconsin.

MPX: Hudson [St. Croix Co, WI] law enforcement reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 01:52 AM CDT -- branches down and power outages reported.

MPX: 1 E Richfield [Hennepin Co, MN] asos reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 01:37 AM CDT -- observed at msp international airport.

Doppler storm total rainfall shows some streaks of 1" rainfall under heavier cells. Doppler tends to estmate a little high when hail is present in cloud towers like the storms overnight.

Heavy rain Thursday:

A strong low pressure system is headed this way Wednesday night and Thursday. This one looks like it will be an efficient ran producer, and most of the southern half of Minnesota could see heavy rain starting Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday.

It looks like some widespread 1" to 2" rainfall totals are likely. There could be some isoletd areas of 3"+ with this potent system.

The weather maps for Thursday have the look of a major low pressure system that would produce a major winter storm if this were December. We can be thankful it's still September and we're looking at an inch or two of rain instead of a foot or more of snow!

Enjoy the sun and mild temps in the lower 70s today!

Weather Lab moves to Target Field tonight:

And wish me luck tonight.

I'll be filling in for Craig Edwards as game day meteorologist for the Minnesota Twins at Target Field tonight. The Twins could clinch the division title tonight if they win and Oakland beats the White Sox.

Tune in to KNOW 91.1FM for my live weathercast from Target Field at about 5:48pm assuming we get all the kinks worked out right.

Go Twins!

PH

Now that's a warm front! (Return to 80s next week?)

Posted at 4:40 PM on September 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Warm fronts

Summer battled back today in the Upper Midwest as warm air gushed into southern Minnesota behind a strong late September warm front.

Temperatures soared to as high as 97 degrees in northern Nebraska late Monday, with 90s pushing into South Dakota and 80s to 90 degrees into southwest Minnesota.

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010

FAIRMONT SUNNY 90 63 40 S26G39 29.71F HX 90

Check out the satellite and surface data today showing the gush of warm air pushing in.

(click for bigger image)

Surface temperature plot shows the 90s pushing north behind the warm front.

Check out the distinct clearing line moving through the metro Monday (GOES visible 1km resolution) afternoon as the front pushes north.

Longer range forecast: Summer returns?

It looks like summer is not done with Minnesota yet this year.

The medium range forecast models (which go out to about 14 to 16 days) are strongly suggesting that the jet stream will lift north into Canada again, and allow the return of a warm summer like air mass to push north into Minnesota again.

We may see several more days in the 80s as we head through late September and early October if the models verify.

These medium range forecast models care notoriously fickle with precipitation trends, but tend to handle big temperatures trends with more success.

Hang in there...it appears summer like weather may linger onto early October in the crazy weather year we call 2010.

PH