Updraft Category Archive: Tornadoes

MPR Live in North Minneapolis; Summery today; Storms tomorrow

Posted at 7:16 AM on May 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Tornadoes

Quick look forecast: (Click for bigger image)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Source: Twin Cities NWS

1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado of May 22, 2011

After the Storm: An All Things Considered Special
MPR news live from North Minneapolis Tuesday
(All Things Considered with Tom Crann Tuesday from 3-6:30pm)

The tornado that hit North Minneapolis on May 22, 2011 resulted in two deaths, more than 3,700 damaged structures and millions of dollars in needed repairs. One year later, MPR News revisits the neighborhood to see how the recovery was managed, what gaps remain and what's next for the North Side.

Join All Things Considered host Tom Crann for a special live broadcast from the University of Minnesota's Urban Research and Outreach Engagement Center in North Minneapolis on Tuesday, May 22 from 3:00 to 6:30 p.m. We will report on the North Side after the tornado, and Mayor R.T. Rybak, MPR meteorologist Paul Huttner, community leaders, activists and residents join Tom Crann to celebrate the progress, discuss lessons learned and consider strategies for the future. The event is free and open to the public.

Boating safety week this week

Here are some great tips for boaters this season.

There are no specific warnings or advisories for lightning but all thunderstorms produce lightning. A lightning strike to a vessel can be catastrophic, especially if it results in a fire or loss of electronics. If your boat has a cabin, then stay inside and avoid touching metal or electrical devices. If your boat doesn't have a cabin, stay as low as you can in the boat.

Next two months are the "brightest" days of 2012 in Minnesota

15+ hours of daylight from now until July 23rd

Tropical Storm Alberto - earliest Atlantic tropical storm since "Ana" in 2003

Windy & warmer Today

Growing T-Storm chances Wednesday PM & Thursday

North Minneapolis Tornado: 1 year after

Today marks a year since the EF1 North Minneapolis tornado. The twister is a reminder that urban tornadoes can and do occur, and that we're vulnerable to such events.

What strikes me most about the North Minneapolis tornado is the amount of damage a relatively "weak" EF1 tornado with 110 mph winds caused, and the disruption of lives that continues a year later.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

I don't even want to think about what will happen when the next EF3 or EF4 tornado tears through the Twin Cities metro with winds of 150mph to 200 mph. That's a completely different (and for most of us unimaginable) level of damage and destruction.

That's why we produced "Storm Ready?"... the joint tornado project last week with MPR News and KARE11.

Join us today from 3pm to 6:30pm during All Things Considered with Tom Crann as we mark 1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado. The MPR news team will cover numerous angles, and I'll be live in North Minneapolis with Tom Crann with an in depth discussion on the tornado that struck one year ago.

Brightest days of 2012 ahead!

Daylight lovers rejoice!

The next 9 weeks of the year are the "brightest" of 2102.

We're basking in more than 15 hours of daylight between now and July 23rd.

Daylight peaks at 15 hours and 36 minutes the week of the summer solstice, which occurs at 6:09pm on Wednesday June 20th.

These are the earliest mornings and longest evenings of the year in Minnesota and the northern hemisphere. The next 6 weeks are the best time to take that evening bike ride of get in a round of golf after (or before??) work.

http://www.die.net/earth/

One of my favorite things about this time of year is that the sun rises and sets well north of due east/west. You can notice sunlight on clear evenings shining on the north side of homes and into north facing windows in the early morning and evening.

Outlook: Pattern change ahead

A strong but balmy south wind will boost temperatures Tuesday. Bank thermometers will blink mid to upper 80s in southern Minnesota by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds gusting to and over 30 mph will whip up whitecaps on Minnesota lakes Tuesday.

The next frontal system arrives Wednesday with a chance of scattered T-Storms. The front will stall Wednesday night over Minnesota...and a second wave of low pressure will ride northeast along the frontal boundary Thursday.

The waves of showers and T-Storms have the potential to bring more tropical style downpours to Minnesota this week. Rainfall totals may exceed 1" to 2" by Thursday evening in many areas.

Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com

Tropical Storm Alberto: Earliest in 9 years!

Tropical Storm Alberto brushed the Carolina Coast over the weekend. The storm is the earliest to form in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003.

Source: NASA

WxUnderground's hurricane specialist Jeff Masters has some historical context.

Here's an excerpt.

Alberto in historical context

Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

Native American moon names: A sign of climate change?

This month's Ojibwe moon name according my trusty Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar is the "budding plants moon."

The various Native American moon names say a lot about just how in tune these people were with our changing weather and seasons. They named the moons to describe what was happening in the environment each month of the year.

With our frost landscape fully "leafed out" now for nearly a month, clearly the landscape looks different these days than it did a hundred or more years ago when the moon names evolved.

The Native Americans were astute observers of changes in their environment, even early phenologists. The fact that monthly moon names no longer reflect the reality of our landscape may be as good as any sign that our climate is changing dramatically.

PH

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USA: Warmest year on record so far; Season's 1st 90 Friday?

Posted at 8:39 AM on May 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Tornadoes

Quick look forecast Today-Sunday: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

+5.4 degrees so far in 2012 in the USA

Warmest January-April period on record since 1895 (Source NOAA)

27 years since the last "cooler than average" month globally

MPR News/KARE11 storm safety tips

24 degrees in Embarrass Wednesday morning

90 degrees in western Minnesota (and possibly the metro) Friday PM

2012: Warmest on record so far for USA:

NOAA's April State of the Climate report highights the warmest year on record to date (January-April) for the USA. Some highlights from NOAA.

•The contiguous United States mean temperature during January-April was 7.4°C (45.4°F), which is 3.0°C (5.4°F) above the long-term average and the warmest such period since national records began in 1895.

•The contiguous United States had a mean temperature of 13.2°C (55.7°F) in April 2012, which was 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 20th century average, resulting in the third warmest April since national records began in 1895.

•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2012 was 14.35°C (57.87°F), which is 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.08°C (0.14°F). The global temperature departure from the 20th century average and the monthly rank were the highest since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Niñas in 2010.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

Warm Front Ahead: A Shot at 90 Friday?

Today's free AC will be pushed north by an approaching warm front tomorrow. There could be a stray thunderstorm tomorrow as the front pushes in.

By Friday, the front lifts north of the metro, and temps will soar.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Highs should easily make the 90s in south & western Minnesota, with a shot at the season's 1st 90 in the metro around 4-5pm Friday afternoon.

Source: Iowa State University

Saturday night thunder?

The weekend appears to be coming into better focus. After a steamy Friday/Saturday, a cold front marching east from the Dakotas looks to trigger a wave of (possibly heavy) showers & T-Storms Saturday night into Sunday AM.

Some 1"+ rainfall totals could fall, especially north of the metro. A few of the storms could reach severe limits, but so far SPC has not placed Minnesota in a "risk area" Saturday night.

Storm Ready: MPR News/KARE11team up for severe storm safety

It's been great working with Belinda Jensen and being part of the excellent reporting from the combined MPR/KARE 11 News teams the past few weeks on the "Storm Ready?" series.

Bel & I put together a few safety tips to remind us all to be "proactive" on severe weather days in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

After talking with UM tornado researcher Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, it's clear more than ever that it really is a question of when, and not if a strong, violent EF3+ tornado will tear a path through the metro again.

Kenny has run numbers that strongly suggest a 1965-style outbreak should occur in the metro every 40 to 50 years. The May 6, 1965 outbreak was 47 years ago.

The myth that tornadoes don't hit urban areas is just that, a myth. Last year's North Minneapolis tornado reminded us of that fact. That twister was a borderline EF1-EF2 with winds of 100-125mph.

It's hard to imagine the whole different level of devastation and EF3-EF4 tornado with wind speeds approaching 200mph will do when it hits the metro.

"Optimism Bias" is the thing we worry about most in the Weather lab, and at NWS offices around the country. "It can't happen here, to me" were the words of many people in Joplin, Missouri before last May's twister. (The Joplin tornado occurred the same day as the North Minneapolis tornado)

Taking just a minute on a beautiful day like today to prepare for that day may save your life.

PH

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Cool front today; Hot & thundery later; Brightest days of 2012 ahead

Posted at 8:54 AM on May 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Daylight, Tornadoes

"Storm Ready" series continues today- a joint project with MPR News/KARE11 (details below)

85 in the metro Monday - Warmest of 2012 so far

90 in Hutchinson, Madison, Morris and Olivia Monday

Cool front moving through today; cooler breezes

Noticeably cooler today & tomorrow highs in the 70s

"Hot front" gurgles back north with heat & humidity by Thursday & Friday

Thundery - Growing T-Storms chances again by Thursday and into the weekend

Brighest Days: Longest daylight of 2012 in the next 10 weeks!

6:09pm June 20th - Summer Solstice 2012

15 hours 36 minutes of daylight on June 20th

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Cooler Front Today:

Welcome to the fresh breeze today, and life behind an advancing cool front. The front features noticeably cooler temps about 10 degrees below Monday's warm spell. Highs will stay in the 60s up north today, with some 70s south.

Our comfy front will linger through Wednesday with dry dew points in the 30s.

By the way Monday was the warmest day so far this year in Minnesota. We hit 85 in the metro. Last year we hit 88 on May 10th. We managed 4 days of 90 degree heat in June last year, and 10 in July including a torrid 99 on July 1st! Do you remember?

Thursday "Hot Front:" Hotter & humid with storms again

By Wednesday night, a powerful warm front will move north into Minnesota.

This is the leading edge of a warm (borderline hot) and sticky tropical air mass.

As the front pushes north Wednesday night, showers and T-Storms may bust out in the eastern Dakotas and Iowa and rumble north and east into Minnesota by Thursday morning.

Source: NOAA/HPC

Additional waves of thunder may slide through as we head into the weekend. Some of the models are hinting at some 1"+ rainfall totals with tropical downpours into the weekend.

Source: Iowa State University

We can't rule out developing MCS, and severe weather as the system moves in.

If we get sun during the day, temps should soar well into the 80s Friday & Saturday. Another wave of low pressure tracking in Sunday suggests a possible washout...stay tuned on that one.

Source: http://www.die.net/earth/

Brighter Days Ahead!

The next 10 weeks are the brightest days in Minnesota. We are now entering the 10 weeks with the longest daylight of 2012 in the northern hemisphere.

Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln Daylight hours explorer

We hit 15 hours of daylight in Minnesota this weekend, and stay there until July 23rd. Daylight peaks at 15 hours and 36 minutes near June 20th, on the date of the summer solstice.

This year's solstice occurs at 6:09pm on June 20th.

These are the weeks to get out and enjoy the long evenings with daylight lingering in the western sky until well after 9pm for most of the next 2 months.

Tornado Options: Safer in your car?

The excellent reporting continues today with MPR News/KARE11's joint project on tornado safety in Minnesota. Check out the eye opening piece by MPR's Curtis Gilbert and Paul Tosto on what (bad) options you may face if stuck in your car as a tornado approaches.

Photo Credit: Jennifer Simonson MPR News

Heres' an excerpt:

MINNEAPOLIS -- You're stuck in Minneapolis rush hour traffic on Interstate 94, near the Lowry Hill Tunnel. A thunderstorm spins out a tornado nearby. What can you do?

Not much. You're now among the most vulnerable people in a tornado. There are no good options.

Traffic's gridlocked, so you can't drive away. Hide under an overpass? It's a trap of swirling wind and debris. Hit the ditch immediately? That's what you were taught, but many experts believe that advice is more likely to get you hurt or killed.

In this situation, your best chance is to stop, stay in your car, duck below the dash -- and hope.

"When you have a big, vicious tornado moving across an area and traffic is just bumper to bumper -- that's probably one of the big scenarios that we really worry about," said Todd Krause, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

"I don't know that there's really a safe way to be out there on the highway."

You may recall we've talked about this on my weather chats on MPR in the last year. Damage surveys found that cars and trucks can be potentially "survivable" options in "weaker" EF0 to EF2 tornadoes. In stronger tornadoes... cars and trucks can be crushed like a twisted metal ball, or wrapped around tree trunks. It's just plain hard to give anyone caught outdoors or in a car good advice on how to survive and EF3 or stronger tornado. The sad fact is not many people live to tell how they survived.

We touched on this Monday during my chat with KARE's Belinda Jensen and Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit on MPR. You can listen below.

FYI, Belinda is a joy to work with and the whole news staff at KARE11 has been fantastic on this story.

Look for more today from MPR News and KARE11.

PH

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Is Metro Storm Ready? MPR/KARE11 Tornado project hits the air

Posted at 5:00 PM on May 14, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

159 killed in Joplin, Missouri tornado last May 22nd

1,000 injured in Joplin in about 15-20 minutes

15-20 minutes "lead time" - NWS tornado warnings were issued several minutes before the tornado hit Joplin

3 to 6 - number of "risk signals" many residents in Joplin ignored before taking cover

"Risk Perception & Optimism Bias" - The feeling "it won't happen here"

This was the single deadliest tornado in U.S. history since modern record-keeping began in 1950. Rated EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, this mile-wide tornado was the largest and most powerful type, and it traveled 22 miles on the ground.

40 to 50 years - The probable time span between major tornado outbreaks in he Twin Cities metro (Data from Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, tornado researcher at U of M)

47 years since the devastating 1965 Twin Cities Tornado Outbreak

26 average annual number of tornadoes in Minnesota from 1950-1980

48 average number of tornadoes per year in Minnesota from 2001-2010

10:40am Paul Huttner & Belinda Jensen preview the series live on The Daily Circuit with Kerri Miller

11 am "Storm Ready" Live Chat online

5:35pm Part I of "Storm Ready?" airs on All Thnngs Considered with Tom Crann

Damage from the tornado that hit Joplin, Mo., on May 22, 2011.
Credit: NOAA

Are We Storm Ready?

Today on MPR and KARE11 we begin a new series on tornado readiness in the Twin Cities.

In light of the deadly and devastating tornadoes in Joplin and Tuscaloosa last year, and with rapidly increasing tornado frequency in Minnesota we wondered just how well prepared is the Twin Cities metro for a major tornado?

MPR and KARE 11 news mangers asked me and KARE11's Belinda Jensen to come up with a scenario...a "tornado simulation" that is meteorologically accurate that would strike the hear of the Twin Cities metro.

The result? A devastating EF3 to EF4 tornado with winds of 150-200 mph that follows a typical Minnesota southwest to northeast tornado track from the southwest Minneapolis suburbs of Shakopee, Eden Prairie and Edina right into downtown Minneapolis.

Source: MPR News/KARE11

The series looks at how shopping centers, schools, senior care facilities, hospitals, traffic jammed freeways and stadiums would deal with an approaching tornado.

It also looks at how we process severe weather information in a tornado situation, and who's responsible for your safety in various public buildings and stadiums.

Look for the series for reports from MPR reporters Curtis Gilbert and Paul Tosto, and KARE 11's Jay Olstad the next two days.

This is some pretty illuminating stuff. We like to think we are ready in Minnesota for just about anything, but are we really "Storm Ready?"

Find out this week on MPR News stations and KARE11 News.

PH

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Live chat: Storm Ready

Posted at 11:00 AM on May 14, 2012 by Michael Olson (1 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

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Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes possible

Posted at 4:18 PM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

The sunshine finally arrived in eastern MInnesota late this afternoon. Meanwhile a full day of sunshine in southwest Minnesota helped destablize the air. Thunderstorms have formed to the west of the Twin Cities and a Tornado Watch is in effect for a large part of central and southwest Minnesota until 10 p.m.

345pm CDT visibile satellite
Source: NOAA College of Dupage

Be alert for rapidly changing conditions. Severe storms are expected as we head into the late afternoon and evening.

Here's a look at the HRRR output of simulated radar around 8 p.m. CDT. This is a forecast of radar reflectivity based on this morning's computer model and is considered experimental data.

Source: NOAA

A tornado watch is in effect just west of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned for any severe weather warnings.

Counties in the Tornado Watch
Source: NOAA SPC

--Craig Edwards

Tornado Watch for central and southwest Minnesota

Posted at 3:17 PM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Tornadoes

Source:NOAA/NWS Chanhassen, MN

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF YANKTON SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Source:NOAA SPC

As thunderstorms continue to develop in this unstable atmosphere they will track east and northeast through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Be prepared to seek shelter if a waning is issued for your location.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings should be taken seriously as the warning may eventually be upgraded to a Tornado Warning.

-Craig Edwards

Responding to the warning; take it personal

Posted at 6:22 AM on April 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Target Field, Tornadoes

In May of 1999 I was part of the NOAA assessment team of the Oklahoma City tornado. Devestation was like a bomb had exploded. Trees were reduced to stumps and houses were splinters of wood and concrete. Fatalities could have been in the hundreds. Warnings were heeded, but few had basements.

Our team had the chance to walk the path of destruction with emergency management officials and speak to residents who survived the EF5 twister. Some had taken last minute refuge in the hall closest as the house collapsed down on them.

I was struck by one young lady's comment when she said she heard the siren, the sky was black and threatening. She was not tuned into a source for weather information, but was listening to a CD in her car. Only when she arrived home and heard two messages from her aunt on her phone recording did she seek more information. The meteorologist on the radio delivered a forceful warning. She survived. The house didn't.

Few tornadoes will occur during prime time news coverage. Still fewer will be covered with live video from chasers or helicopters. Images are a game changer in inciting a response. As the say in Missiouri, "show me."

NOAA Weather radio has been available for decades yet is hardly mentioned by journalists covering tornado survival stories. It seems the warning response is always dependent on whether the siren went off. That is an outoor warning system.

Here's what a NOAA weather radio receiver looks like. It is integral to the warning process and information direct to you 24 hours a day. It needs to be in your house.

Range of the reception is limited and the frequency is defined for your location. This maps shows the coverage in central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

Statewide Weather Radio coverage can be found here. A complete story on NOAA Weather Radio is available here.

An automobile or a truck for that matter is not good shelter during a strong tornado. It should be abandoned for a sturdy shelter.

There is still time to attend local Skywarn spotter training. Check out the location nearest you. Regional spotter training schedule click here. Timely severe weather reports validate warnings and lend confidence to warning decisions.

A slug of Marchlike air arrives just in time for Easter. Ladies, hold on to your bonnet, if it's still considered fashionable. Chilly air hangs around for the Twins Opener on Monday afternoon.

CE

Texas Miracle: 18 tornadoes & 0 deaths even with major damage

Posted at 7:12 AM on April 4, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

18 tornado reports in Texas Tuesday according to NOAA's SPC

0 deaths reported so far - a minor (perhaps major) miracle

Slight risk - SPC had only a slight risk posted but 18 tornadoes touched down

"Tornado Swarm" just missed the heart of DFW to the south & east
(5-10 miles NW and it could have been so much worse)

Source: WFAA & You Tube

Minor Miracle?

We may have just witnessed a minor (and perhaps major) miracle in Dallas Tuesday.

A swarm of as many as 18 tornadoes skipped across the Texas sky on the south & east outskirts of the DFW area.

Check out the map below from the DFW NWS. You can see how if the tornadoes had tracked just 5-10 miles north & west they would have moved right through the heart of the more densely populated core of DFW area.
(click to enlarge)

Source: Forth Worth NWS

The tornadoes tore through a mix of suburbs and open country. While major damage did occur, it's amazing there were few injuries and no deaths reported.

It appears a combination of timely tornado warnings and just plain dumb luck saved lived Tuesday.

One interesting aspect of the storms is the "Twin Tornadic Supercells" that put down simultaneous tornadoes just a few miles apart near Dallas Tuesday.

Source: Capital Weather Gang

You can access the cool DFW NWS storm report event map here.

Source: Forth Worth NWS

Survey teams from the DFW NWS are out today investigating damage.

Source: Fort Worth NWS

Last spring massive tornadoes cut a swath right through the heart of cities like Tuscaloosa and Joplin, If Tuesday's DFW tornado tracks are just plain lucky, we'll take it in 2012.

Our Forecast: San Diego, with lakes

Source: Twin Cities NWS

The rest of this week looks absolutely pleasant for Minnesota. Cool nights with frosty temps north of the metro and mostly sunny days with highs in the 50s north and 60s south will be the rule.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

This is great early April weather, but we really need some good soaking rains.

The next chance for much needed rainfall arrives on ...Saturday. Oh well!

PH

Outbreak: Tornadoes tear through Dallas, TX Metro; Incredible video

Posted at 5:09 PM on April 3, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

Multiple tornadoes tear through Dallas - Fort Worth, Texas suburbs
(Tornado reports still coming in)

Major damage in the DFW area

14,000 pound semi-trailers tossed about like toys by twisters

Dramatic CNN video shows semi trailers launched into the air

Source: CNN

We're still getting reports coming in as the event unfolds Tuesday afternoon & evening. Over a dozen twisters have been reported so far.

Source:NOAA

From the damage and the tornado video I've seen, we're looking at least EF3 tornadoes (wind speeds of 136-165mph) in the DFW area.

Source: NOAA

It's early, but thankfully so far no fatalities have been reported.

PH

It's Official: 1st Tornado of 2012 struck Monday; 2nd earliest on record

Posted at 9:32 PM on March 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

NWS has confirmed that Monday night's damage in Elysian was produced by a tornado.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NORTHERN WASECA AND SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY TORNADO AND DOWNBURST DAMAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM ASSESSED DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED ON THE EVENING OF MONDAY...MARCH 19...2012 FROM NORTHERN WASECA INTO SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTIES. EVENT...COMBINATION OF TORNADO AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF EF-0 STRENGTH. LOCATION...THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTH OF ELYSIAN LAKE ROAD...JUST SOUTH OF 412TH AVENUE IN NORTHERN WASECA COUNTY. THE

TORNADO PROGRESSED NORTH FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES WHILE PARALLELING THE EASTERN SHORE OF ELYSIAN LAKE AND ELYSIAN LAKE ROAD...BEFORE CROSSING ELYSIAN LAKE NEAR 427TH AVE. FROM HERE...THE TORNADO PASSED ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TOWN OF ELYSIAN...BEFORE GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LAKE FRANCIS. FROM THE SHOREVIEW AREA NORTH OF THE TOWN OF ELYSIAN...THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTH FOR APPROXIMATELY 4 MORE MILES...PARALLELING COUNTY ROAD 11. THE LAST BIT OF DAMAGE NOTED ALONG THE PATH WAS AROUND ST. PETER'S CHURCH ALONG COUNTY ROAD 12.

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY SEVEN MILES.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 TO 85 MPH.

MAXIMUM WIDTH...100 YARDS FOR THE TORNADO...WITH DOWNBURST SEGMENTS UP TO A MILE IN WIDTH.

DAMAGE...DAMAGE PRIMARILY NOTED WITH THIS EVENT WAS TO EVERGREEN TREES. MOST DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES WAS CONFINED TO SHINGLES AND SOFFITS ON ROOFS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OCCURRED AT A FARMSTEAD AND SHED ALONG ELYSIAN LAKE ROAD IN NORTHERN WASECA COUNTY. AT THE FARMSTEAD...SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED/SNAPPED ON THE PROPERTY...WITH A METAL EQUIPMENT SHELTER HAVING A SECTION OF THE BUILDING BLOWN IN. ABOUT A QUARTER MILE NORTH OF THIS HOUSE ALONG ELYSIAN LAKE ROAD...THE SOUTHERN WALL OF A STORAGE SHED WAS BLOWN IN...CAUSING THE SHED TO COLLAPSE. IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE TOWN OF ELYSIAN...TWO SMALL EMPTY GRAIN BINS WERE BLOWN INTO AN ADJOINING FIELD...WITH A SMALL METAL SHED AT A NEARBY HOUSE BLOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 60. THIS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...ALONG WITH TREE DAMAGE NOTED IS CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 80 MPH...WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF EF-0 /EF-1 BEGINS AT 86 MPH/.

NORTH OF LAKE FRANCIS...THE DAMAGE PATTERN BECAME MUCH MORE COMPLEX...AS THE TORNADO BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS CAUSED THE DAMAGE FOOT PRINT AT TIMES TO GROW TO AS MUCH AS A MILE WIDE. MOST OF THE DAMAGE FROM LAKE FRANCIS TO ST. PETER'S CHURCH WAS TREE DAMAGE...THOUGH NUMEROUS BOAT DOCKS AND LIFTS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF THE LAKE WERE PICKED UP AND MOVED/TOSSED IN THE WINDS. IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE OFF OF WILLOW POINT DRIVE...MOST HOMES SUSTAINED SOME DEGREE OF ROOF DAMAGE...WITH A LARGE NEIGHBORHOOD PLAY SET BLOWN OVER AND SPREAD ABOUT THE NEIGHBORHOOD. MUCH OF THIS DAMAGE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNBURST. BETWEEN CEDAR POINT ROAD AND ST. PETER'S CHURCH...THERE WAS SPOTTY TREE DAMAGE...UNTIL THE AREA AROUND THE CHURCH. AT THE CHURCH...SEVERAL LARGE CEDAR TREES WERE SNAPPED/UPROOTED...WITH TREES AND GREENHOUSES NEAR THE CHURCH SUSTAINING DAMAGE.

TIMING...BASED RADAR AND DAMAGE REPORTS...THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY 625 PM...WITH THE TORNADO LIFT UP AT APPROXIMATELY 635 PM.

ADDITIONAL DAMAGE...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WAS SEEN FROM THE TERMINUS OF THE TORNADO...NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF LE SUEUR COUNTY TO AROUND THE CITY OF UNION HILL. THIS DAMAGE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 50 MPH. THESE WINDS...WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WERE SEEN ACROSS THE REST OF SCOTT COUNTY...ACROSS THE WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...AND UP INTO THE CAMBRIDGE AREA.

CLIMATOLOGY...THIS IS THE SECOND EARLIEST DATE A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MINNESOTA HISTORY. ACCORDING TO THE MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...THE ONLY EARLIER RECORDED TORNADO OCCURRED ON MARCH 18...1968 IN TRUMAN...NORTH OF FAIRMONT.

Showery Pattern Ahead: Up to 4" of rain next 2 weeks?

Posted at 5:45 PM on March 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

Soaking rains band of showers slides through into Wednesday AM

.25" to .75"+ likely with some 1" totals possible

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

"April Showers" cooler & showery the rest of this week - more like April

Wet pattern next 2 weeks? GFS model cranks out 4" rainfall next 16 days

Ignored warnings "vast majority" of Joplin, MO residents ignored 1st (and even multiple) warning signals in deadly tornado last May

April-like showers:

Yes it's still March, but after our May and June weather the atmosphere seems to think it's April now.

Another batch of rain is sliding north from Iowa. Scattered bands of rain will slide through into Wednesday morning.

The rain may be steady and soaking overnight in much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Generally rainfall totals look to be between .25" and .75" with a few spots soaking in up to 1" by lunchtime Wednesday.

Source: wxcaster.com

Cool & showery week:

Our overall weather pattern has changed to a cooler (but still above average) wetter pattern this week.

The only exception is northwest Minnesota, where more sunshine will be the rule.

Look for another batch of showers Thursday into Friday. And again, it could be a soaker.

Wet pattern holds into April?

Looking ahead, it appears our wet pattern may persist into early April.

The GFS model keeps an active jet stream over Minnesota, and frequent storms riding the jet.

The systems could dump heavy rain at times, and may begin to take a bite out of the severe drought in much of Minnesota.

Take a look at the GFS 16-day forecast below. It cranks out 4.34" of rainfall in the next 16 days.

If we get 4"+ of rain in the next 16 days, it would begin to help ease the drought.

We need the rain to recharge parched soils from last fall, and fill up lakes and rivers.

Check out the photo from Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka. The water level is close to 3 feet below where it was last year.

Photo Credit: Paul Huttner

We can use every drop!

Joplin Revisited: "Vast majority" ignored 1st warning signals

It's easy to remember the devastating images from the deadly Joplin last May 22nd.

Joplin tonado devestation.
Image credit: NOAA

The Joplin tornado (which occurred the same day as the North Minneapolis tornado) killed 159 people and injured over 1,000.

Source: NOAA

What's amazing is how many people simply ignored the first warning signs of an approaching tornado. In fact, and NWS study after the tornado found that some failed to take protective action after hearing as many as 6 to 9 different "risk signals."

From the NWS report:

"Many of the key findings within this report involved societal aspects of warning response and risk perception. Responding to warnings is not a simple act of stimulus-response; rather it is a non-linear, multi-step, complex process. Relationships between false alarms, public complacency, and warning credibility are highly complex as well.

Finding #2b: The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not immediately go to shelter upon hearing the initial warning, whether from local warning sirens, television, NWR, or other sources. Instead, most chose to further clarify and assess their risk by waiting for, actively seeking, and filtering additional information."

"Siren fatigue" and so called "optimism bias" (the feeling that it just won't happen to me) were two of the reasons sighted for delayed actions in the Joplin tornado.

The take away from Joplin is this. When you get the first indication of severe weather at your location take action now...then seek and filter additional data. Your life may depend in action in the first few seconds.

Stay dry!

PH

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Winterlike weekend, followed by a taste of spring

Posted at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Springtime, Tornadoes, Winter 2011-12

We are closing out the books on one of the warmest meteorological winters on record. For the months of December, January and February the Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls was nine degrees warmer than the new normal.

International Falls tallied three days of 20 below zero or colder for overnight minimums. Their coldest morning was 25 below zero on January 19th. That's also the coldest morning experienced in the Twin Cities when the mercury dropped to minus 11 at the International Airport.

On only two days during the winter did the temperature fail to climb above zero in International Falls. *there are two days in February when temperatures were not recorded. The high of 46 degrees on January 5th in the Falls broke the old record of 36 degrees set in 1984.

In the Twin Cities there were no recorded days of below zero in December or February at the big Airport.

Here's a statement from the NWS Grand Forks Office..... Based on the early information the meteorological winter months of December 2011 through February 2012 was the warmest for the Fargo Area, and in the top ten for the Grand Forks Area.

Snowfall has been sparse in the northern end of the Red River Valley. That's good news for the spring flood threat.

From the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the snow depth as of Thursday morning.

This morning Grand Forks reported a snow depth of 5 inches with 7 inches on the ground at Fargo. Another inch or two of snow is possible in the Red River Valley in the next couple of days.

An area of snow was beginning to show up on radar in southwest Minnesota late this afternoon.

Here's a snapshot from 415pm. Some of the snow may not have been reaching the ground.

Checking out the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, the snow is likely to continue to expand and move northeast this evening. A fresh coating of around an inch of snow is possible in the metro.

HRRR simulated radar for 9pm.

After seasonal temperatures this weekend, the models are continuing to trend towards a significant moderation. Looking out to the eight to fourteen day forecast there is high confidence in above normal temperatures as posted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center;

I've been reading the stories about the nighttime tornadoes that struck Missiouri and Illinois earlier this week. The EF4 tornado that devasted Harrisburg, Illinois touched down shortly before 5am, under the cover of darkness.

One of the comments listed that an emergency official heard the outdoor siren was able to move quickly to shelter. People need to have an indoor weather alert radio. Do me a favor and get one for your home this season.

Another threat of dangerous storms is in the weather picture for the Ohio Valley on Friday. Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather potential as they see it this afternoon for Friday afternoon.

Enjoy the snow this weekend. The melt begins Monday. Highs well into the 40s next week. Some readings approaching 60 degrees are possible in southwest Minnesota.
CE

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Increasing threat of dangerous storms

Posted at 3:55 PM on August 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Target Field, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, dew point

This visible satellite image shows a couple of important aspects about this afternoon's weather. First, the clouds that remained over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which kept temperatures from climbing into the lower 90s. Second, the clearing in western Minnesota that has allowed sunshine and high dew points to produce heat index values about 100; including 106 at 3PM in Canby.

In the previous blog you'll note the Storm Prediction Center's rather high probability of tornado potential in western Minnesota. There is a boundary from the differential heating due to the cloud-free area and the persistent cloud cover. This is displayed nicely in the graphic of the dew points, temperatures and pressure field as generated from 3PM surface observations.

Temperature contours are in red, dew point highlighted by colored background and pressure field in black. Basic meteorology suggests the inflow of winds from the south and southeast, along with the advancing low pressure, high dew points and afternoon heating will result in thunderstorm development in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

We'll watch how this unfolds in the later afternoon and early evening hours.

Meanwhile, Pete Boulay of the State Climate Office shared this tid-bit after probing the dew points recorded this summer at the Twin Cities International Airport. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 98 hours of dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher. This breaks the old record of 78 hours that was set back on 2001.

Some branches were blown down along with power lines as the storms swept through east central Minnesota between 1230PM and 230PM this afternoon. Here's a link to the storm reports out of the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Heavy rain also was reported with over two inches at Hutchison and an inch and a half at Target Field near downtown Minneapolis from late morning to mid afternoon.

Stay abreast of potentially dangerous weather conditions developing as we go into the evening hours.
CE

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2011: Year of the urban tornado

Posted at 2:20 PM on June 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

There's an old tornado myth that tornadoes do not strike cities. 2011 has proved that to be a myth in spades.

Our local NWS has a great write up today on the amazing number of urban tornadoes in 2011.

Before and after aerial photos of St. John's Hospital in Joplin, Mo.
(Credit: NOAA)

Recent Events Serve as a Reminder that Tornadoes can Happen in Cities

"The degree of tornado damage across the country during the past three months has been devastating. Tornadoes thus far have caused a preliminary 537 fatalities and many more injuries. Thousands of homes and businesses have been destroyed, including in densely populated areas.

Tornado path through North Minneapolis May 22nd.

So far this storm season, four tornadoes have occurred in the seven county Twin Cities metro area, and six tornadoes have been documented within 25 miles of Minneapolis. One of these on May 22nd was responsible for one fatality and approximately 30 injuries in North Minneapolis.

Tornadoes can happen anywhere. Densely populated areas are every bit as susceptible to tornado strikes, including violent tornadoes such as those that struck Joplin and Tuscaloosa. Last year, Minnesota saw four violent tornadoes of EF-4 intensity. On May 6th 1965, a tornado outbreak with four violent tornadoes occurred within and very near what is now the Twin cities and surrounding suburbs. It is simply a myth that cities are safe from tornadoes. Tornadoes have happened and can happen in cities, including the Twin Cities.

The destruction of this spring has shown it is important not to be complacent with regard to severe weather preparedness. Being severe weather prepared at home, the workplace, school, and elsewhere is key. It is wise to review what you would do if a tornado warning is issued in those situations. Stay informed on the weather when there is a possibility for severe thunderstorms. Large venues, especially outdoors, can be more vulnerable to severe weather. For planners and workers at such events, remember the potential of severe weather in your safety plans and consider NWS StormReady. Now is the time to prepare. The severe weather season in Minnesota and Wisconsin continues through July and August, and can in some years persist into the autumn months."

Decent weekend forecast:

It looks liek the weekend will be decent and fell a bit more like summer overall. There are still some occasional shower chances, and the possibility of severe weather may return by Sunday night & Monday.

Have a great weekend!

PH

Rain lingers, tornado survey, "oddball" storms Tuesday

Posted at 8:37 AM on June 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Tornadoes

Summer began Tuesday, but it will feel more like April by tomorrow.

It feels like somebody put a big weather target over Minnesota.

A pesky low pressure system is spinning overhead today.

Surface low pressure over swirling southeast Minnesota Wednesday.

The severe threat has shifted east today, but scattered bands of rain continue to rotate around the low from east to west. Many areas can expect another .25" to .50" of rainfall today as occasional shower bands roll through. Some areas in northern Minnesota may pick up another 1" of rain through Thursday.

The system will mercifully moving east by Friday and allowing a return to sunshine.

Tornado damage survey in progress today:

Our local NWS office is in the field today to investigate possible tornado touchdowns in Coon Rapids & Blaine today.

The details from Twin Cities NWS:

Rotating Thunderstorms on Tuesday; Damage Survey on Wednesday

"Tuesday afternoon saw numerous rotating thunderstorms across southern and central Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. Some of these had deeper rotation in favorable environments, prompting tornado warnings. Numerous funnel clouds and one tornado were reported through early Tuesday evening. In addition, thunderstorms briefly trained over St. Cloud producing very heavy rainfall over a short amount of time, creating flooding in the downtown.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM WILL BE IN
THE BLAINE AND COON RAPIDS AREAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SURVEY
REPORTED DAMAGE CAUSED BY ONE OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT CONTAINING DETAILS OF THE FINDINGS
WILL BE ISSUED UPON COMPLETION OF THE ASSESSMENT."

When NWS survey teams hit the field they look for several key damage indicators to assess the causes of damage.

1) Is the damage pattern circular or straight line? Do downed trees and other debris all point the same way, or are there signs of rotation within the damage pattern?

2) What kind of structural damage was done if any?

3) What did local residents see and hear as the damaging wind event rolled through?

4) How does damage in the field compare with other sources such as doppler radar images, photos etc?

We should know by late today if the damage in Coon Rapids was caused by a tornado. My hunch is there was at least one brief tornado touchdown.

Oddball storms:

Tuesday's (tornadic?) storms were pretty odd in a few ways. These were not your classic tornadic supercell thunderstorms.

-The storm that rolled through Dakota County, St. Paul and into Anoka County was much smaller than your average "tornadic supercell."

-There was virtually no hail detected in any of the storms Tuesday.

-The storms were moving from SE to NW as they rotated around the low pressure system in southwest Minnesota. Most tornadic supercells move from SW to NE or from W to E in Minnesota.

The atmpsoheric "sounding" (weather balloon data) showed storng rotation with " speed and dirctional wind shear" present in the atmpsohere Tuesday.

The main factor in Tuesday's storms was that they showed strong rotation. The bottom line is that's all you need to produce a tornado. The atmosphere was not capable of supporting violent EF3+ tornadoes or long lasting "long track" tornadoes Tuesday, but there was enough rotation to cause a few weaker spin ups.

NWS "storn centric" doppler velocity loop shows storm as it rotated from Dakota County through St. Paul into Anoka County.

Remember there's no such thing as a "weak tornado." The damage photos in Coon Rapids prove the point that while very localized, even one small tornado can ruin your day!

PH

Tornado Watch expires; scattered rain overnight

Posted at 9:15 PM on June 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

Update 9:15pm:

NWS has allowed the tornado watch to expire at 9pm.

MPX expires Tornado Watch for Anoka, Chisago, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Isanti, Ramsey, Sherburne, Washington, Wright [MN] and Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, Polk, Rusk, St. Croix [WI]

Expect a few scattered showers & T-Storms to persist for a while but gradually fade overnight.

Scattered showers will linger Wednesday, but the severe weather threat will shift east.

PH

Update 6:30pm:

Heavy rain causing problems in St. Cloud this evening.

MPX: St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 05:05 PM CDT -- delayed report. heavy rain across downtown st. cloud led to water half way up vechiles causing 20 to 30 to be stranded in the water. people helped by law enforcement out of the vehicles.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

MNZ054-056-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093-220100-
LAC QUI PARLE-CHIPPEWA-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-
BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...MONTEVIDEO...GRANITE FALLS...
OLIVIA...GAYLORD...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...
LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...
BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL
CLOUDS ARE BRIEF IN NATURE AND NORMALLY DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...IF A TORNADO WARNING WOULD BECOME NECESSARY...TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION AND SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

SPC has posted tornado watch #532 until 9pm from the Twin Cities southeast to Madison Wisconsin.

Scattered storms are rotating around low pressure in southwest Minnesota today. There is enough rotation or "spin" in the atmosphere to produce isolated tornadoes.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Funnel clouds and a brief tornado touchdown were reported near Coon Rapids, Andover and Blaine today by spotters.

MPX: Coon Rapids [Anoka Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 03:32 PM CDT -- tornado reported near the intersection of hanson and maine.

MPX: Blaine [Anoka Co, MN] emergency mngr reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:17 PM CDT -- at hwy 65 and hwy 10.

Locally heavy rainfall is producing localized street flooding.

Check out the image below from University Ave. in St. Paul.

PH

June 17, 2010: 1 year later

Posted at 5:45 PM on June 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

It's been a year Friday since the biggest tornado outbreak in Minnesota history.

It was one of the most memorable days in Minnesota weather history. It also ranks up there as one of the biggest events for my broadcasting career with the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991, the Chicago heat wave in 1995, Monsoon storms and wildfires in Arizona, and last year's Domebuster in December.

I have written extensively about the events of last year's "Minnesota Super Outbreak" , but I think our local NWS has done an amazing job this year of revisiting the events of last June 17th. The complete report is here, but here are some highlights.

Fast Facts

74 tornadoes across four states, including 48 in Minnesota. The number of Minnesota tornadoes was a new state record for tornadoes in a day.

The average lead time for Tornado Warnings during this outbreak was slightly over 19 minutes.

Tornado tracks for June 17, 2010.

Here's another way to look at the mayhem from June 17th.

Rotation Track Maps

"The National Severe Storms Laboratory produces several experimental products that prove useful when analyzing severe weather outbreaks. One of those is something called a "rotation track map". This map is produced by running radar velocity data through a filter, and determining the shear at given instants in time across the entire United States radar network. These instantaneous values are then integrated across an entire time period. The resulting maps can reveal both tracks of rotating supercells, and fluctuations in intensity in those supercells.

An example of one of those maps is shown below, for June 17, 2010."

There is slight risk for a few severe storms on the anniversary Friday, but nothing like what we saw a year ago that made weather history in Minnesota.

PH

Weekend weather treat!

Posted at 2:14 PM on June 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Tornadoes

You may want to buy a lottery ticket today.

It appears for once we may get lucky and a great early summer-like weekend in Minnesota.

Trends indicate that Friday's hot sticky summery air mass will be swept east this weekend and replaced by a sunnier, drier fresher weather pattern.

My weather toes and fingers are crossed that the maps verify, but it looks good.

Season's first 90s Friday!

Tropical heat and humidity surged north into southern Minnesota Friday. The "hot front" pushed temperatures into the 90s from the metro south.

Here are some readings as of 4pm Friday. Rochester takes the golden thermometer so far with 96 degrees as of 4pm!

Update 5pm: Austin hits 97!

AUSTIN PTSUNNY 97 61 30 SW21G26 29.75S HX 97

MNZ060>063-068>070-032200-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES CLOUDY 91 68 46 SW10 29.71S HX 95
ST PAUL PTSUNNY 89 69 51 S9 29.71S HX 93
CRYSTAL CLOUDY 88 70 55 W6 29.70S HX 93
BLAINE PTSUNNY 88 72 58 S8 29.71F HX 94
EDEN PRAIRIE CLOUDY 87 68 52 SW9 29.71R HX 90
LAKEVILLE PTSUNNY 90 66 45 S7 29.72R HX 92
SOUTH ST PAUL PTSUNNY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.70S HX 93
LAKE ELMO FAIR 86 68 54 S10 29.72F

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

FAIRMONT CLOUDY 90 64 43 SW21G29 29.77S HX 91
FARIBAULT PTSUNNY 91 57 31 SW14G20 29.76R HX 90
OWATONNA PTSUNNY 93 61 33 SW20G32 29.74R HX 93
WASECA PTSUNNY 90 59 35 SW13 29.76S
ALBERT LEA MOSUNNY 91 61 35 SW10G23 29.71S HX 91
$$

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ROCHESTER MOSUNNY 96 65 35 S23G30 29.79S HX 98
RED WING CLOUDY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.72F HX 94
STANTON PTSUNNY 93 63 36 S10G21 29.72R HX 94
DODGE CENTER MOSUNNY 90 63 40 SW24G31 29.77R HX 90
WINONA PTSUNNY 91 64 40 S8 29.77S HX 93
AUSTIN SUNNY 93 61 33 SW21G28 29.76R HX 93
PRESTON SUNNY 92 62 36 SW23G37 29.79F HX 93

Temperatures pushed 100 in northern Iowa Friday!

NORTHWEST IOWA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CARROLL * MOSUNNY 99 48 18 SW26G37 29.79S HX 95

The air mass is also topically humid, with the season's first 70 degree dew points in the metro Friday.

Blaine recorded a dew point of 72 Friday, and my "unofficial" La Crosse Technology digital weather station the weather lab in the west metro recorded a dew point of 74.8 degrees !

SPC is monitoring easatern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin for a slight severe threat Friday night, with the best severe parameters are focused on northwest Wisconsin.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL WI...WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032033Z - 032200Z

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF
STRONG CAP MAY BE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER SCNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH
ECHOES ARE WEAK WITH THIS CONVECTION...THERE IS A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT TOWARD A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/NRN WI WHERE INTENSIFICATION
MAY OCCUR. WHILE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE OVER WI...SUSTAINED ASCENT MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
SUFFICIENT COOLING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP FOR DEEPER UPDRAFTS TO ROOT INTO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IF SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 06/03/2011

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Sunnier, drier weekend:

Let's break down the weekend.

Friday night:

A cool front pushing through Minnesota will drag scattered showers, T-Storms and a tropical air mass east into Wisconsin Friday later evening.

Scattered storms may accompany the front as it moves east.

SPC is monitoring the area (especially NW Wisconsin) for a slight severe risk.

Temperatures will slowly fall from the hot & sticky upper 80s and 90s in southern Minnesota Friday evening.

Saturday & Sunday: "Dry Front"

The air behind the front is still summer-like with temperatures near 80 this weekend in the south, and 70s up north. But you'll really notice a drop in humidity Saturday.

Dew points behind the front are in the 30s and 40s in the Dakotas!

The weekend looks mostly dry and sunny, but I can't rule out a stray shower or T-Storm Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.

Don't look now, but we might actually get a rare nice weekend in 2011.

Why so many tornadoes and deaths in 2011?

Here's some great perspective on why tornadoes can cause so much destruction, tornado myths and simple ways to make your home more "tornado resistant" from the NWS office in Milwaukee. (Thanks to MPR & Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for passing this along)

"Tornado Myths

Violent tornadoes basically destroy and/or level standard, stick-built residential homes and most other structures that don't have a steel or concrete core or have extra anchoring devices that enhance that building's wind-resistant capabilities. So for most people in this country, there isn't much that can be done when it comes to EF4 and EF5 tornadoes unless they are in a storm shelter or safe room designed to withstand such a tornado (see other related factors in this listing). End result is increased chances of death with violent tornadoes."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Bottom line? We may be able to pin part of the 2011 tornado swarm onto a La Nina induced weather pattern, but the numerous direct hits on cities this year is probably just (the bad) luck of the draw, and increasing sprawl.

Makes us appreciate a quiet weather pattern this weekend.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

Update 5:40pm:

SPC has tacked on Tornado Watch #424 until midnight for much of northeast Minnesota.

Update 5:40pm:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF ELY
MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Update 5:30pm:

SPC has issued Tornado Watch #423 for much of western Wisconsin until midnight.

The watch does not include the Twin Cities metro and it appears the severe weather threat is focused in Wisconsin tonight.

Here are the included counties for MPR listeners in western Wisconsin.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 423
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

WIC005-017-033-035-091-107-040500-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.A.0423.110603T2215Z-110604T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 423 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

BARRON RUSK

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE
PEPIN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHIPPEWA FALLS...DURAND...
EAU CLAIRE...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE AND RICE LAKE.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The text from SPC.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREEN BAY
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PH

Slight severe risk; Mass tornado shatters "urban" myth again

Posted at 8:42 AM on June 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes

You may want to keep one eye peeled toward the sky today as a warm front pushes north into Minnesota.

The front will trigger a few scattered showers & T-Storms, but it looks like the severe risk is fairly low according to SPC & the Twin Cities NWS. Expect a few scattered showers & storms today, but the severe risk looks fairly low, and focused mainly in western Minnesota.

SPC highlights slight severe risk in western Minnesota today.

Severe weather parameters are "marginal" today, and the forecast discussions do not exactly provide ringing endorsements for severe weather.

From SPC: "LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM NE SD INTO ERN ND INVOF THE WARM FRONT...BUT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON."

From Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion: "KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THE AIRPORT OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...BUT NO REAL ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SEEN TODAY/TONIGHT."

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Heat returns tomorrow: A shot at 90?

You'll notice an increase in heat and humidity after the warm front pushes through tonight & Friday. We have a shot at our first 90 of the year in southern Minnesota Friday.

Temperatures make a run at 90 in southern Minnesota Friday.

A cool front should bring a transfusion of Canadian air featuring lower humidity and pleasant temps near 80 this weekend.

Dew points drop from the sticky 70s Friday to comfy 50s this weekend.

Springfield, Mass: Latest "Urban Tornado" casualty

This is getting crazy.

Tuscaloosa, Joplin, Minneapolis and now Springfield, Massachusetts. The list of "tornado towns" in 2011 continues to grow. So much for the myth that tornadoes do not strike urban areas.

When the tornado struck the 3rd largest city in Massachusetts Wednesday at rush hour, amazing video shows the debris cloud and something we rarely see on video. The tornado literally sweeps across the Connecticut River, shattering another myth that bodies of water can stop tornadoes.

Look closely at the amazing video below and you can see cars stranded on a bridge that take a direct hit from the tornado. Imagine the feeling of sheer panic as the cars are trapped on a bridge, over water and inside the swirling tornado vortex.

Damage reports form the Springfield NWS office here.

0432 PM TORNADO SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND
ONE HALF MILE FROM MAIN STREET. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.

0432 PM TORNADO SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

A LETTER FROM SPRINGFIELD CAUGHT IN UPDRAFTS WAS FOUND
IN MILLBURY AT 820 PM

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 5 FROM MEMORIAL BRIDGE TO NORTH END BRIDGE ...
TREES AND WIRES DOWN. ROOSEVELT AVENUE ... HOUSE WITH
ROOFS AND OTHER PARTS OF HOMES BLOWN OFF AROUND
CATHEDRAL HIGH SCHOOL.

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON MAIN STREET AND UNION
STREET.

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.65W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON HILL STREET. TREE DOWN ON CAR ON
UNION STREET. ROOF OFF OF HOUSE ALONG WILCOX STREET NEAR
MAIN STREET. THREE STORY BUILDING COLLAPSE ON WILCOX
STREET. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE
ALONG WEST SPRINGFIELD AND SPRINGFIELD TOWN LINE.

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/01/2011 HAMPDEN MA TRAINED SPOTTER

MCDUFFY SCHOOL ON AMES HILL ROAD RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON MEMORIAL BRIDGE.
SEVERAL HOMES DESTROYED ON ALLEN STREET AND BROADWAY.

PH

2011: Year of the tornado. MSP tornado likely EF2

Posted at 9:15 AM on May 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

The numbers are getting downright scary.

1162 preliminary tornado reports so far in 2011 in the U.S.

671 average number of tornadoes to date

116 and counting, the number of fatalities in the Joplin, MO tornado

8th deadliest tornado in U.S. history

481 people killed in tornadoes so far in 2011

6 years have produced over 500 tornado deaths since 1875 in USA

58 years since we've seen this many tornado deaths in the USA

The big question: Why?

There are a few atmospheric clues as to why this year is an off the charts tornado producer, but it's hard to reach a clear conclusion.

1) La Nina may play a role in active tornado years, but the tie is not a slam dunk. The explanation in a recent paper from NOAA's Earth Syetem Research Laboratory.

El Niño/La Niña and Tornadoes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The record setting tornado outbreak during 26-28 April 2011 took place within a global climate context of lingering La Niña conditions (cold phase of the Southern Oscillation). Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) had developed in the prior year over the tropical central Pacific, and though peaking in winter, have persisted into this spring. To the extent that such global ocean conditions may have played a role in the occurrence of this extreme tornado outbreak, there may exist a long-lead capability to alert the public and decision makers of heightened risk for more violent tornado outbreaks over a season for a given geographical region.

There are suggestions that winter (January-March) tornado counts may change their preferred geographical location depending on the phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).11 However, that study's analysis covering 1950-2003 found that neither the frequency of tornado days nor of violent tornado days (days with 5 or more F2+ tornadoes) is affected systematically by the phase ENSO for the US as a whole. A separate investigation that used data for a shorter period of 1950-1992, but covering all seasons, argued that La Niña events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and the Deep South during spring, and that La Niña facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and is associated with more destructive storms. It should be recognized, however, that small sample sizes do not permit a robust statistical appraisal for either of these studies."

2) Warmer than average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico?
There is some speculation that warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico may be adding heat and moisture to air masses in the southern USA. This may be providing extra fuel to storms in 2011.

3) Climate change link is tenuous:

Again, the report from NOAA's Earth Syetem Research Laboratory.

"So far, we have not been able to link any of the major causes of the (April) tornado outbreak to global warming. Barring a detection of change, a claim of attribution (to human impacts) is thus problematic, although it does not exclude that a future change in such environmental conditions may occur as anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing increases.

The body of knowledge regarding the possible role played by large-scale climate forcing in tornado outbreaks is rapidly evolving, and constitutes a field of study that must integrate existing expertise in meso-scale meteorology with expertise in global-scale climate dynamics. Likewise, the methods for conducting attribution science also continue to evolve, and advances on the tornado-climate linkages will require modeling capabilities beyond current tools. Despite various limitations in data and tools, it should be noted that applying a scientific process is essential if one is to overcome the lack of rigor inherent in attribution claims that are all too often based on mere coincidental associations."

One thing is clear. A consistent and powerful jet stream is racing across the central USA this spring, and has triggered massive tornado outbreaks. The root causes may be studied for years, but the trend continues.

MSP tornado survey in:

Looks like and EF2. Details here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
752 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SURVEY TEAM ASSESSMENT ON THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TORNADO
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY 22ND...

THE TORNADO THAT HIT NORTH MINNEAPOLIS AND OTHER AREAS WILL BE RATED
EITHER AS A STRONG EF1 OR AN EF2.

THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN RATING THE TORNADO THAT HIT
NORTH MINNEAPOLIS...ST. LOUIS PARK...GOLDEN VALLEY...FRIDLEY AND
MOUNDS VIEW AND BLAINE SINCE SOME OF THE FIELD INFORMATION GATHERED
STILL NEEDS TO BE PROCESSED. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT IT
WILL BE RATED AS EITHER A STRONG EF1 OR POSSIBLY AN EF2. THE
TORNADO WAS ABOUT 1/2 MILE WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. IT WAS ON THE
GROUND FOR 6 AND ONE QUARTER MILES IN HENNEPIN COUNTY...PLUS AN
ADDITIONAL 8 MILES ACROSS ANOKA AND RAMSEY COUNTIES AS THE TORNADO
WENT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDLEY...MOUNDS VIEW...AND BLAINE.

Next outbreak on the way:

It looks like yet another severe tornado outbreak is firing off today in the Southern Plains. This time the cities under the highest risk will be Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita and yes, Joplin, Missouri.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM N TX N/NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VLYS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS
AND OZARKS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

We could easily add several dozen more tornadoes to the 2011 count today.

Let's hope this time no major cities take a direct hit.

PH

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MSP Tornado: 6 minute NWS lead time? Joplin: deadliest in 64 years

Posted at 5:15 PM on May 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

In all the chaos Sunday, chalk one up for our local NWS office in Chanhassen.

It appears tornado warnings were issued by local NWS at least 6 minutes in advance of the first tornado touchdown, and a tornado watch was posted by SPC 2 hours in advance.

Car crushed by tree in North Minneapolis Sunday. (NWS photo)

The NWS storm summary will confirm the timing, but after sifting through storm reports and talking with NWS today here's a chronology of events so far.

12:10pm CDT SPC in Norman, Oklahoma issues tornado watch #322 for parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin including the Twin Cities Metro.

2:10pm CDT First tornado warning issued for Minneapolis by Chanhassen NWS Office.

2:16pm CDT First reported tornado touchdown sighting near Highway 100 & I-394 in St. Louis Park.

The Watch:

Tornado Watch #322 was issued in timely fashion Sunday, with a 2-hour lead time before the tornado dropped from the sky over St. Louis Park.

Tornado watch #322 graphic from SPC.

Tornado Watch #322 text from SPC

The SPC 2 hour lead time on the watch was critical and may have alerted residents well in advance of the possibility of tornadoes.

Developing "Hook Echo":

By 2:05pm is clear that storms are becoming tornadic over the metro. A clear hook echo is visible over St. Louis Park on the NWS doppler reflectivity image below.

Tornado Warning issued at 2:10pm CDT:

I talked with the Chanhassen NWS today to confirm that the first tornado warning was issued at 2:10pm CDT Sunday. This appears to be about 6 minutes before the first reported touchdown near Highway 100 & 394 in St. Louis Park.

By 2:14 pm rotation is clearly visible in the form of a "velocity couplet" on NWS doppler velocity scans. Details from NWS below:

"Below is a radar image from Sunday afternoon. This image shows SRM (Storm Relative Motion) and is used to diagnose circulation in thunderstorms. The couplet of bright green immediately adjacent to red indicates strong low level rotation in the thunderstorm. The following image below shows radar reflectivity at the same time on Sunday afternoon, at 2:14 PM CDT. Below is a radar velocity image of the storm as the rotation was passing just to the east of Highway 100 and Golden Valley."

The at 2:16pm, the first tornado sighting.

0216 PM TORNADO ST LOUIS PARK 44.95N 93.36W05/22/2011 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER DEBRIS CLOUD HIGHWAY 100 AND 394..SURFACE LEVEL ROTATION

Time lapse of the Minneapolis tornado forming from Rich Colombo via NWS Facebook page.

And the damage report after the fact. (Indicates 2:15 pm touchdown)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

*** 1 FATAL, 30 INJ *** THE ONE FATALITY OCCURRED AT THE
INTERSECTION OF 37TH AND FREMONT AVENUE NORTH. TWO PERSON
WERE REPORTED CRITICALLY INJURED.12 PEOPLE HAD MODERATE
INJURIES AND 15 HAD MINOR INJURIES.

Home destroyed in North Minneapolis. (NWS photo)

The local NWS did a good job of providing lead time Sunday. Many more lives may have been lost if warnings and sirens were not sounded in advance of the tornado

Joplin tornado nightmare: Deadliest single U.S. tornado in 60 years?

We're still learning about the devastating tornado that tore through Joplin, Missouri Sunday night, but a few things are clear.

This monster looks to have been a mile wide at the base and may have had winds of 200 mph. The devastation in the path is complete.

According to The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes, this may have been the single deadliest U.S. tornado in 64 years. 2011 looks like the deadliest tornado year since 1953!

Here are some details from weather.com.

"TWC Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Find him on Facebook) now says the Joplin, Mo. tornado is the deadliest single U.S. tornado in 64 years, since 181 were killed in Woodward, Okla. on Apr. 9, 1947.

In fact, there have been only 8 tornadoes documented in U.S. history that have claimed more lives than the Joplin, Mo. tornado!"

Top 10 deadliest tornadoes

Mar. 18, 1925 (Tri-State Tornado): 695
May 6, 1840 (Natchez, Miss.): 317
May 27, 1896 (St. Louis, Mo.): 255
Apr. 5, 1936 (Tupelo, Miss.): 216
Apr. 6, 1936 (Gainesville, Ga.): 203
Apr. 9, 1947 (Woodward, Okla.): 181
Apr. 24, 1908 (Amite, La., Purvis, Miss.): 143
Jun. 12, 1899 (New Richmond, Wisc.): 117
May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo.): 116
Jun. 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich.): 115

The incredible death toll of 116 late Monday will likely change as searches are still ongoing through the rubble.

NWS storm surveys are ongoing and may take several days in Joplin.

For all the damage in Minneapolis Sunday, we can be thankful our tornado was not as large as the Joplin monster.

PH

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Significant tornado strikes North Minneapolis

Posted at 4:52 PM on May 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

What appears to be the most significant tornado in 30 years in the city of Minneapolis tore through North Minneapolis Sunday.

Spotter reports indicate the tornado may have first touched down around 2:16pm near Wirth Park, tracked northeast through North Minneapolis then crossed the Mississippi River before lifting in Northeast Minneapolis.

Early damage reports show what appears to be a nearly continuous damage swath that may be up to 3.5 miles in length, and up to 1/4 mile wide. Damage is extensive in North Minneapolis with roofs gone, garages blown apart and numerous large trees uprooted or snapped across roadways.

My initial look at damge video indicates this may have been at least EF2 damage on the Enhanced Fujits Scale for Tornado Damage. NWS damage surveys will ultimately determine the tornado's wind speeds, but I estiamte winds may have been at least as high as 135 mph with this tornado.

EF Scale

There are reports of one fatality and several minor injuries with the storm late Sunday afternoon.

Hook echo caught on radar:

Here is a snapshot of the NWS doppler radar (reflectivity mode) at 2:25pm CDT Sunday, just as the tornado was forming over Minneapolis.

Note the "fish hook" area inside the circle. That's the "hook echo", or the area in the storm with the developing tornadic circulation.

Hook echo clearly visible on radar Sunday over Minneapolis.

The tornado touched down minutes later, and tracked northeast.

Widespread damage:

KARE 11 aerial video shows extent of damage in North Minneapolis.

Here are spotter and damage reports from Twin Cities NWS.

MPX: Minneapolis [Hennepin Co, MN] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 02:27 PM CDT -- 29th and logan north

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Chisago [MN] and Polk [WI] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 342 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS NORTH OF LINDSTROM MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LINDSTROM.

We've dodged a few tornado bullets this spring, but not Sunday.

Expect showery weather tonight into Monday, but the threat for severe weather has shifted east.

PH

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70s Return! Mom's Day showers, First 80 Tuesday? 1965 tornadoes

Posted at 6:26 PM on May 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes, Weekend

Welcome back to the 70s!

Can the disco balls and open shirts be far behind?

The temperature topped out at 70 in the metro and much of southern Minnesota Friday.

Warm colors represent 70s surging north Friday.

It marks only the second time the Twin Cities has reached 70 this year! That's a far cry behind last years pace.

2 70 degree days so far in 2011

8 70 degree days by this date in 2010!

Until Friday temperatures were running -9.2 degrees so far in May in the metro. The 70 degree day was welcome tonic for warmth seeking Minnesotans. It actually felt warm inside your car sitting in the sun for the first time today...what a concept!

Mixed weather bag this weekend:

The Mother's Day weekend will be spring-like, but typically finicky. Here's the rundown.

-Friday night & Saturday morning:

Skies should be mostly dry with pleasant temps if you're out this Friday night. A weak weather disturbance sliding through will bring scattered showers late tonight into Saturday morning. There may be a few embedded T-Storms after midnight into early Saturday.

Rainfall should generally be light, under.24" in most areas. There could be some heavier totals over .50" with downpours in some areas that do get thunderstorms.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Saturday PM & Saturday night:

This looks to be the driest art of the weekend in between weather systems. Look for partly cloudy skies, and temperatures Saturday afternoon should recover into the mid to upper 60s in most areas. Wind E 5-10 mph.

Wet run for the roses?

You may want to pick a "mudder" in the Kentucky Derby Saturday. There's a chance for showers and T-Storms in the forecast in Lousiville.

Here's a great look at historical Derby weather.

Mother's Day:

This might be a great year to take mom to that indoor brunch. The next wave will move rapidly east on Mother's Day. Look for showers and a few T-Storms to increase during the morning, and they could linger into afternoon.

NAM model total weekend rainfall could add up to an inch west of the metro?

Showers may favor the northern half of Minnesota as the day wears on, and there could be some sunny hours in the south. The threat for severe weather appears low.

Temps should be in the 60s, with a few 70s popping up in southern Minnesota late Sunday. Winds SE 5-15 mph.

Season's first 80 next week?

Breaking news....summer weather will make a push into Minnesota early next week. We could feel the season's first 80 degree readings late Monday or Tuesday!

After what could be a rainy (& thundery?) start Sunday night into early Monday, it appears a warm front will push through southern Minnesota Monday PM.

We should bust out into a sunny, warm and somewhat more humid air mass. It looks like 70s are a lock on Monday. If everything plays out right, we could see our first 80 degree temps Tuesday afternoon in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

GFS model shows warm air in red surging north with 70s and maybe 80s in Minnesota Tuesday!

The best chance of thunderstorms will be in northern Minnesota...but it appears we'll see some boomers as a front sweeps trough late Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

May 6, 1965: Still the biggest tornado outbreak on record in the metro

In the insane Minnesota tornado year of 2010, one record still (thankfully) stands.

"Minnetonka" tornado on May 6, 1965

It was 46 years ago Friday that the biggest tornado outbreak in Twin Cities history occurred. Six tornadoes skipped across the metro area that night.

Tornado tracks & timing from May 6, 1965 (Click to enlarge)

The event marked several firsts in weather coverage in Minnesota. It was the first time civil defense sirens were sounded in severe weather, an event that would last until today.

It also marked the advent of continuous severe weather coverage on local radio, a fact which saved numerous lives that day and in the 46 years following.

Twin Cities NWS radar image from May 6,1965
(Note the multiple "hook" echoes)

It also marks my first living memory. I lived under a mile form the path of the "Cottagewood tornado" that tore through Deephaven at the time. My memories of that day are so vivid, If there was technology that could playback what was inside my head I could show you in HD what that day looked like. The hail was intense, and the sky an eerie green I have never seen since.

I can't recreate my memories, but if you get a chance to see this amazing book, take a look. The "Minnetonka Tornado Story in Pictures" by R.C. Jefferson is a local classic. I am fortunate to have a copy in the weather lab. It's tough to find, but if you can get your hands on it it's worth the price.

There are numerous stories (and maybe a few suburban legends) about that day. Some residents of Carsons Bay on Lake Minnetonka that I have talked to swear the tornado sucked up so much water as it crossed the bay that the water level rapidly dropped several feet. People on the eastern side of Carsons Bay said they saw fish flopping on the newly exposed lake bottom as the tornado swept by to the west.

I could go on and on and recreate the wheel on that day...but it may be better to review some of my earlier posts and other work on the 1965 Twin Cities tornado outbreak.

-Updraft post: "The Day the Tornadoes Came"

-Updraft Post: "What we've learned since about tornadoes since 1998"

-Twin Cities NWS summary of 1965 tornado outbreak

Seeley talks climate & weather:

As always, my MPR colleague (and birthday boy this week!) has a great summary of topics this week in his "Weather Talk" blog. Check it out. Mark's commentary is always insightful. It's a great read.

When it comes to understanding climate and Minnesota weather patterns, there's Mark...and there's the rest of us. Thanks to Mark for teaching me so much over the past few years!

Have a great weekend, and Happy Mother's Day!

PH

Temps trend up; a shot at 70? "Backwards" New Zealand tornado

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Tornadoes, Winter/spring 2011

Who knew 59 degrees could feel so good?

The mercury struggled to 59 in the metro on Tuesday under brilliant sunny skies. That's still 6 degrees below the average for May 3rd, which is now 65. Looking at the smiling faces and the number of us soaking up the much needed sunshine, you would have thought it was 75.

Temps surge Tuesday. (Click images to enlarge)

Our sunny weather winning streak continues today. Temps will recover to near "normal" early May levels this afternoon. Those stunted hostas will get a boost today with temps in the mid 60s. It should be a great evening for outdoor baseball or that evening stroll around Lake Calhoun.

Next rain tonight:

An "open wave" riding the jet stream will bring our next shot of rain overnight into early Thursday. Look for rain showers in western Minnesota this evening, spreading into the metro by around midnight.

Rainfall totals appear to be between .25" to .50" for most areas as the system sails through. "Open waves" tend to keep moving through the atmosphere and not stall over Minnesota. Look for rain to end from west to east early Thursday. It looks like the rain could end by noon, and the sun could return Thursday PM!

Fab Friday?

Another high pressure cell will glide overhead Friday. This means more sunshine, and temps could respond again into the upper 60s as spring kicks into high gear.

Temps trending upward next several days!

Friday just may be the nicest day in a long time around these parts.

Mixed weather bag this weekend?

Is it too early to look ahead to the weekend? Never!

To be honest, it's dicey to profess total accuracy 3-4 days out for any forecast. That may be especially true this weekend, as the weather crystal ball (and the weather maps) still look a little murky.

A couple of weak waves will slide through Minnesota under an increasing milder southwest flow aloft. This may trigger a few batches of clouds and a few showers both Saturday and Mother's Day. I also think we'll see some sunny, dry hours mixed in.

Bottom line? Look for a changeable weekend forecast, with a mix of sun and maybe a few showers. Temperatures should range from the upper 60s to possibly 70 if we get enough sun mixed in.

Unsettled next week?

The maps are looking potentially unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. A storm that looked like it may clip Minnesota Monday appears to be steering south, and that could leave us high & dry with a sunny milder day in the low 70s if it verifies.

The system may surge north a bit Tuesday & Wednesday, and the chances for rain could increase then. The models are still shifty regarding this potential weather system next week.

Stay tuned.

Omega Block ahead?

To be honest, the weather maps look chaotic in about 7-10 days. There is still a hint that we could develop what we call an "Omega Block" over the central USA later next week. If we do, that could lead to more dry weather.

Again...stay tuned.

New Zealand Tornado: Yes, they do spin the other way in the southern Hemisphere

But the damage is very real and looks the same. Check out the video & story from the New Zealand Herald.

Minnesota floods move down river:

Remember all that water in the Minnesota & Mississippi last month? Well it's moving down the Mississippi and combining with heavy rainfall to creat major flood probelms in the along the Mississippi. The raging Ohio River is feeding the problem too.

Here's the ABC Memphis video of the Army Corps of Engineers blowing the levee to save Cairo, IL. (pronounced KAY- row)

Heavy rains in excess of 7 to 10" have fallen along the Ohio and Mississippi watersheds.

We can be grateful our weather is trending for the better. For the first time in a long time we can say there are no floods, no snow, and for now no severe weather in the forecast.

It's all green grass, tulips and daffodils baby.

Enjoy!

PH

Why weather played a role in bin Laden raid; Tornado records smashed

Posted at 9:13 AM on May 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Weather history, Winter/spring 2011

We're learning that weather played a critical role in the timing (and potential success) of the dramatic raid that lead to the death of Osama bin Laden.

The mission to capture or kill bin Laden was scrubbed on Saturday night/early Sunday due to bad weather in Pakistan. A front blew through the area with high winds and there were thunderstorms in the area, forcing the military to scrub the mission Saturday night.

Take a look at hourly weather conditions at nearby Islamabad late Saturday night. As you can see wind gusted over 34 mph and thunderstorms were reported nearby for several hours Saturday night.

Hourly observations from Islamabad show why high winds and thunder scrubbed the mission Saturday night. (Click images to enlarge)

Winds also shifted direction rapidly Saturday afternoon in Islamabad.

When you combine wind shear, high winds over 30 mph and thunderstorms in the area you can see why the helicopter landing and mission was scrubbed Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Sunday Night: "Perfect weather" green lights the mission

Sometime around midnight Sunday night/ Monday morning a team of helicopters lifts off from the deserts of eastern Afghanistan and headed for Abbotabad.

The sky is clear and moonless, and the weather conditions are ideal for the pilots to drop in from above, undetected until the sound of rotors fills the sky in Abbotabad at 12:55 am local time.

Not only are skies clear, the air is calm with no wind at ground level. Haze is reported at nearby Islamabad with visibility reported at 2.5 miles. This may have been a critically beneficial factor in favor of U.S. Special Forces that night.

Hourly observation from Islamabad, Pakistan within one hour of the raid.

Visibility of just 2.5 miles meant the helicopters were invisible to the naked eye above 12,000 feet as they flew in, but visibility was good enough for the pilots to have clear sight of the compound as they dropped out of the sky from above to land in nearly perfect weather conditions.

The timing of the raid was also likely chosen by the phase of the new moon on May 3rd. The dark, moonless sky another factor working in stealthy favor of the surprise attack.

Somewhere in the U.S. Government (probably the Air Force) there are some very happy meteorologists today. They likely gave the advice to scrub on Saturday night, and the green light to go on Sunday night based on an excellent weather forecast.

The rest is history.

April 27, 2011: Biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history:

Speaking of history, we've lust lived through the biggest single tornado outbreak on record in the USA.

Tracks of rotating tornadic supercells on April 27th.

NOAA has tallied the numbers, and it turns out last week's tornadic outburst set multiple records

April 25-28, 2011, Tornado Outbreak Statistics

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 362 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274.

Is Minnesota next?

It remains to be seen whether the tornadic trends of Spring 2011 will continue and migrate north. There are still signs of a pattern change starting about May 15th that could lead to more tranquil weather in the Midwest.

In the mean time, enjoy the sun today and most of Wednesday, before our next shot of rain moves in Wednesday night.

Shot of rain Wednesday night into Thursday could be a soaker.

Overall, weather trends are finally looking more like "spring has sprung" in the Upper Midwest.

PH

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211 tornadoes! Biggest outbreak ever? Weekend weather changes

Posted at 5:29 PM on April 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Earthquakes, Tornadoes, Weekend

What a week.

This will go down as one of the most violent weather weeks in history. The numbers will continue to trickle in and change slightly over the weekend, but it's clear we've just witnessed one of the top tornado outbreaks in U.S. history.

By many measures this outbreak will rival the April 1974 "Super Outbreak" when final numbers are tallied.

Of course telling a story by numbers doesn't even begin to describe the magnitude of what the people in Alabama and the South have experienced this week.

That said, here's where the numbers stand as of late Friday, and how that compares to the super outbreak of April 3-4 1974.

211 preliminary tornado reports Wednesday from SPC

148 tornadoes during the "Super Outbreak" in 1974

363 total number of preliminary SPC tornado reports this week

329 dead in Wednesday's outbreak (numbers may still change)

335 killed in "Super Outbreak" in 1974

700 approximate number killed in the Tri-State Tornado in March 1925

228 dead in Alabama Wednesday

200+ mile long path on the Tuscaloosa tornado (could rival Tri-State Tornado of 1925)

160 miles...the distance tornadoes carried some of the debris

Wednesday's SPC tornado tally: (Click images to enlarge)

Mind boggling event:

It's hard to even process the magnitude of this week's tornado madness. Just think about the impact of one tornado hitting your home. Now try and imagine hundreds of massive tornadoes tearing up entire towns, and big chunks of whole states. Well I guess we don't have to imagine. Cable TV at its best is showing us all the tragic pictures.

Why such complete destruction?

There are several factors that made the damage in Wednesday's "super outbreak" so complete. The most obvious is the sheer size and fury of the twisters. Storm surveys are still in progress, but it is clear that some of these massive tornadoes were EF-4 and EF-5 "monsters." Wind speeds were likely well over 200 mph with some of these violent twisters. Not much is going to survive those kinds of wind speeds.

While many of the tornadoes were racing at speeds of 55 to 60 mph, there were times when some of the tornadoes appeared to slow down. This increased the time that damaging winds and debris had to tear away at homes and buildings.

Blender effect? The sheer volume and size of debris chunks spinning inside the tornado vortex created a "blender effect" in which missiles of various shapes & sizes travelling over 100mph acted like the blades of a blender, chopping anything in the tornadoes path to pieces.

Silent Monster?

One thing that's still puzzling about the Tuscaloosa tornado is why so many who viewed the tornado form a distance described it as "silent."

We know that wind affects sound waves. Is it possible that the tornado's inflow winds were so strong that they "sucked" some of the sound back into the vortex?

Who knows...but it seems odd that you can't hear the tornado in the distance.

Trucks: Instant tornado shelters?

Looking at video of the aftermath one very intriguing thing is becoming clear. Some people survived these violent tornadoes in their vehicles. Some probaly died in vehicles too. But then again, a lot of people died in their homes.

CNN ran a story today on a family in Concord, AL who rode out a direct hit inside their Honda Ridgeline truck parked in their garage. Their home was destroyed and they described the damage to their basement as "un-survivable" as debris collapsed into the basement.

Other video shows some vehicles tossed around and crushed, but many truck cabs while damaged appear to have been survivable.

There has been some debate in the meteorological community recently and a few studies suggesting that people may actually be safer in (especially weaker) tornadoes inside a heavy vehicle or truck than in a mobile home or poorly constructed home. This is a "hot button" topic that needs more research.

One thing is clear, in a tornado life and death decisions are made in seconds. There is no "totally safe" place in a tornado. Sometimes survival is going to be the luck of the draw, or the actions you take in the seconds before the tornado hits.

One of the best questions to ask in a tornado crisis is how can you put as many hardened "walls" as possible between you and the tornado before the twister hits?

It could be under the stairs in your basement, it could be in your bathtub, or in a closet. The pictures from the Alabama tornadoes and other evidence suggests if you're caught in the open... it may actually be the floor of your car or truck.

The "official" advice is still to abandon your vehicle during a tornado, cover your head and lie in the lowest spot you can find.

After looking at the sheer volume of deadly flying debris strewn about by the tornadoes in the South, you have to wonder if you'd have better protection in a vehicle.

Air Mail: Debris land over 160 miles away

Forgive the light headline, but this is amazing.

Again the story from CNN.

Climate change link? Probably not

Single meteorological events like this are likely not attributable to climate change. Check out this piece form Huffington Post. If tornado heavyweights like Howie Bluestein and Josh Wurman agree you can't pin this one on climate change, that's good enough for me.

Tri-State Tornado still the deadliest:

Believe it or not, Wednesday was not even close to the deadliest day in tornado history. That title still belongs (and hopefully always will belong) to the Tri-State Tornado of March 1925.

Here are the top 10 deadliest single tornadoes in U.S. history from the Tornado Project Online.

Here are the top 15 tornado outbreaks according to meteorologist H. Michael Mogil.

01. SUPER OUTBREAK
* April 3-4, 1974
* Large part of the eastern U.S.
* 148 tornadoes in 24 hours
* more than 330 deaths
* 6,142 injuries
* Damage $600+ million

Minnesota earthquake?

What's that you say? An earthquake in Minnesota? Yep. Believe it or not there are minor earthquakes centered in Minnesota from time to time.

Some thought they heard thunder.

Here's the data on the minor tremor that happened at 2:20am Friday near Alexandria.

Weekend Forecast: Changeable

What's that old saying about Minnesota weather? "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes."

There's your weekend forecast in a nutshell.

An upper level low-surface cold front combo moves through Friday night into early Saturday.

Friday Night: Expect scattered showers, with a few embedded T-Storms into early Saturday morning. Low near 50.

Saturday: AM Showers. Mixed sun PM with a few passing showers possible late. Temps steady to falling in the 50s. Wins SW 8-18 mph.

Sunday: Looks sunny but breezy and cool. High near 52. WNW winds 10-22 mph & gusty.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

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Super Outbreak: 174 twisters, 284 dead, 1 mile wide at base

Posted at 2:40 PM on April 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

Update 6:00pm

The numbers continue to change and pour in. Pending final number it looks like this could be the #1 or #2 ranked tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

Latest numbers & analysis below.

Storm surveys from Birmingham Al NWS here.

Update 2:45pm:

We're still getting new numbers in this morning (afternoon), and they continue to rise and astound.

174 preliminary SPC tornado tally (and still counting)

284 dead (and still counting)

184 dead in Alabama alone

350 number of miles travelled by the Tuscaloosa tornado's "parent tornadic supercell"

400+ injured in Tuscaloosa

100+ number of miles debris was carried across Alabama according to reports.

Why did it happen?

A good write up here from the Twin Cities NWS.

"Reasons for the Severe Weather

The frequent severe weather in the south has been due to a persistent weather pattern that on the larger scale is also responsible for our cooler and cloudy, more March-like weather. The jet stream has been much stronger than normal across the central and southern part of the country, steering in at times what has been a parade of low pressure systems. To the north of these tracks, the northern U.S. states have seen cooler than normal temperatures, especially in the past two to two and a half weeks. In the south, warm and moisture rich air has continued surging northward ahead of each low pressure. The clash between the air masses, along with strong atmospheric winds associated with the jet stream over the area, has helped to blossom severe weather outbreaks. A further combination of dry air impinging from the western Plains and Texas, where there have been many fires, has potentially led to even more enhanced severe weather towards the Ozarks and Texarkana areas. Such persistent patterns can establish themselves because of continent or hemispheric scale air or ocean circulations. Examples of this are the El Niño and La Niña in the eastern Pacific, which can have impacts on established weather patterns worldwide."

Does this mean Minnesota & Wisconsin will have an active tornado year again?

A big maybe. Again, here's some good data from our local NWS.

"Tornadoes are spawned from individual thunderstorms, which last on the scale of minutes to hours. These thunderstorms are driven by low pressure systems and associated fronts which occur on the scale of days. So making a direct connection to the recent tornadic episodes and the upcoming thunderstorm season in Minnesota and April is not truly possible. However, as mentioned above, larger scale persistent patterns responsible for the current severe weather are often based on global scale patterns. Such patterns last on the scale of months and thus do offer an opportunity to compare past years with similar patterns. Here are some quick correlations made from 1950-2010:

A year that has had an April with a top ten number of tornadoes in the country has led to an above normal number of tornadoes in MN and WI six of those ten years.
Years that have had a La Niña (cooler than normal eastern Pacific waters) of similar strength and in a similar trend of gradually waning, have had an equal amount of active and non-active tornado seasons in MN and WI."

Minnesota's tornado numbers have nearly doubled since 1950:

I crunched some tornado numbers including 2010 for Minnesota for a presentation to our local AMS in February. You can see how Minnesota's average tornado numbers have nearly doubled since 1950.

Here's the slide from my power point.

This slide shows how Minnesota's tornado numbers have risen when compared to Oklahoma since the 1950's. The two lines crossed for the first time last year, as Minnesota surpassed Okalhoma in the annual tornado tally for the first time on record.

Will this be one of the top tornado outbreaks in USA history?

It appears so. Here are some good numbers courtesy of local SKYWARN storm spotter John Wetter. I have worked with John at various SKYWARN & AMS events in the past year.

"Though it will take some time to compile the tornadoes from today, and figuring the 5 year running average of final verification being about 70% of the number of reports of tornadoes, we'll likely fall somewhere short of the Super Outbreak, but seeing some of the video one could maybe think that there would be at least a few to possibly several violent tornadoes (EF-4+). This could rank it fairly high in the significant tornado outbreak tally. There is no doubt it was a historic outbreak none-the-less.

10: Match 21, 1932 (AL, GA, TN)
8: March 28, 1920 (AL, GA, IL, IN, MI, OH)
7: April 27, 1912 (NE, OK, TX)
7: March 16, 1942 (IL, IN, KY, MS, TN)"

It will take some time to get final numbers as NWS survey teams and rescue crews work in the field. But we do know this will end up as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in U.S. history.

PH

***Original post 11:15pm Wednesday***

Wednesday will go down as one of the worst days in U.S. tornado history.

A massive swarm of killer tornadoes churned across the southeast. Dozens are dead. Hundreds are injured or homeless. Devastation is widespread.

This could be biggest tornado outbreak in 37 years. The numbers may eventually rival the 1974 "Super Outbreak" ...the biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, with 148 tornadoes in a 24 hour period.

Some of the staggering numbers:

161 preliminary tornado reports Wednesday.(and still counting)

178 dead. (and still counting)

128 dead just in Alabama.

400+ injured in Tuscaloosa

100 number of miles debris was carried across Alabama according to reports.

Anatomy of a "super outbreak:"

Check out the interactive Google map below. Tornado symbols represent individual touchdowns. Click on each to reveal data.

View Tornado Outbreak April 27, 2011 in a larger map

Tuscaloosa Terror:

This unbelievable video was shot by Chris England of the University of Alabama as the tornado tore through Tuscaloosa.

Watch as the massive violent vortex sends whole trees and other debris high into the air. Transformer flashes are visible as the twister tears through power lines. Mini vortices spin around the giant funnels core.

4-27-11 Tornado Tuscaloosa, Al from Crimson Tide Productions on Vimeo.

Classic "Debris Ball" captured on Doppler:

You can't make this stuff up.

Look at the doppler refectivity image below and you can see the "debris ball" churned up ahead of the massive twister near Birmingham.

Chunks of homes, cars, trees, anyhting that the twister "rototilled" and ejected into the air is bouncing back the radar beam with "high reflectivity."

True "Super Outbreak:"

SPC reports show at least 141 tornado sightings Wednesday. Keep in mind these are preliminary numbers and there are duplicate sighting of the same massive tornadoes.

Throw in Tuesday's tornado tally of 61 twister reports and you have a true "Super Outbreak."

Deadly Squall Line:

Tornado watch boxes and warnings still bracket the tornadic squall line as midnight rolls into Thursday.

Listen for much more on this potentially record breaking tornado outbreak on MPR News Thursday.

PH

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More snow likely, models vary; long track tornadoes

Posted at 10:12 AM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:20am:

Morning 12Z NAM model run comes in with about 4" to 5" snowfall for metro Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

Winter weather has overstayed its welcome this year, and it seems we're due for one more shot before spring finally takes hold.

The weather maps continue to look more like March this week. Another potent late winter storm (in springtime!) is heading for the upper Midwest Tuesday. There are still major model differences with this system, and another two "major" forecast model runs this morning and tonight may (hopefully) clarify the final outcome.

Winter storm watches have been posted for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story previews potential storm.

Based on what we know now, here's the rundown on snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The system:

Low pressure will track from Missouri to south of Chicago Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There are still model differences in the track, with the European model taking the system furthest south.

Precip timing & type:

A mixed bag of rain & snow should develop Tuesday in Iowa & the I-90 corridor early, and then slide north toward the Twin Cities during the afternoon.

GFS model sets up heavy precip band in SE Minnesota late Tuesday.

Precip will likely be mixed rain & snow Tuesday, changing to all snow Tuesday evening. Snowfall rates could increase and be heavy at times Tuesday night. Snow should gradually end Wednesday morning.

Snowfal Totals:

It does appear the system has the potential to produce 6"+ in the heaviest snow band, which most likely will set up south of the metro from Mankato to Albert Lea northeast to Eau Claire. Right now, cities & towns with the best chance for 6"+ appear to be Waseca, Owatonna, Rochester, Northfield, Red Wing & Winona.

NAM model: Heavy snow band south of metro.

Metro totals?

At this time the metro appears to be north of the heaviest snow band.

With major model differences in the storm track, I'm not ready to sign off on big accumulations for the Twin Cities just yet. We still have more than 24 hours and two major model runs before the snow flies. But it does appear that we will see some accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...inches to be determined tonight or early Tuesday morning.

A "plowable" event for the metro? A big maybe.

Forecast could change:

File this forecast under "changeable."

There is still a lot that could go wrong with the models this time of year...and especially this year. Model performance (especially the GFS) has been downright poor with the last few "storm" systems. Early snowfall forecasts have been all over the place again with this system...from over a foot of snow down to an inch.

Because of this I am going to wait a little longer than usual to issue a specific snowfall forecast for the metro. Suffice to say you should plan for some snow from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations will most likely favor grassy areas again. With warm pavement and air temps near or above freezing, there will need to be heavy snowfall rates for a longer period of time to see significant accumulations on roads...but that could happen Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There will be two major model updates in the next 24 hours beofre precip moves in.

Stay tuned...

Record southern tornado outbreak?

There's no doubt that the weekend tornado outbreak will go down as one of the biggest in U.S. history. The only question seems to be whether or not we will surpass the incredible number of 148 tornadoes in a 24 hour period form the April 3-4, 1974 "Super Outbreak."

248 tornadoes sweep the south in 3 days. (Map by Victor Gensini)

Here are some staggering numbers so far from last weekend's mega tornado outbreak.

248 - total number of preliminary tornado reports from Thursday-Saturday.

148 - Number of tornadoes in a 24 hour period in the 1974 "Super Outbreak."

45 - number of fatalities reported so far

63 miles - path length of Raleigh, NC tornado

65 miles - path length of the Fayetteville, NC tornado

3 miles - maximum path width of the Raleigh, NC tornado!

The numbers are staggering but don't even begin to tell the whole story. The size and intensity of these monster tornadoes over the weekend is frightening, even to trained meteroloigsts. The Raleigh tornado was 3 miles wide at the base! The storm chasers call these huge, violent tornadoes "wedges"...because they are so big they don't even look like tornadoes from a distance. You just see this big V-shaped cloud intersecting the ground.

Check out this remarkable time lapse video as the "rain wrapped" tornado moves into Raleigh, NC.

These big, violent EF3+ wedge tornadoes appear to have caused many of the tornado deaths this past weekend, especially in North Carolina.

Next severe outbreak Tuesday?

This overactive pattern looks like it will produce another severe weather outbreak Tuesday in the central plains on the southern end of our "winter storm."

SPC has already placed a moderate risk over the Ohio Valley.

Stay tuned...

PH

Storm rages north; wind & cold kick in

Posted at 5:05 PM on November 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Tornadoes, Winter storms

A major winter storm is still hammering northern Minnesota. As cold backwash wraps around the back side of the storm, additional snow, wind and blowing snow will make for difficult travel well into Wednesday morning.

Highway 61 in Duluth tunnels looks slick.

Check out these snow totals and wind reports from northern Minnesota.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KNIFE RIVER 46.95N 91.78W
11/30/2010 M47.00 MPH LAKE MN MESONET

Pretty intense stuff in the Northland Tuesday at the storm's peak.

Red River Valley:

In the Red River Valley gusty winds are sending a drier powdery snow airborne. Blowing snow and reduced visibility is the result. Visibilities in Grand Forks have been near .50 miles in blowing snow.

Expect treacherous travel across most of northern Minnesota into early Wednesday as the storm finally begins to pull away to the east.

Lightning Strikes Twice: (or in this case tornadoes)

On the southern end of our winter storm, tornadoes skipped through parts of the deep south.

Monday, for the second time this year, tornadoes struck Yazoo City, Mississippi. The twister did significant damage.

Just this year an EF4 tornado hit Yazoo City on April 24th. That twister killed 4 people and injured dozens in Yazoo City. In total, 10 fatalities occurred along the 149-mile tornado track that day... with 700 homes heavily damaged or destroyed.

We'll enjoy a quieter but colder (December!) weather pattern the rest of this week. Highs will be in the 20s, lows teen south, near zero north. Temps may moderate to near 30 in the south Friday.

I'm keeping an eye on another potential snowmaker this weekend. More on that later.

Stay warm!

PH

NWS: Minnesota 2010 tornado record confirmed

Posted at 8:08 AM on November 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

We knew it was coming, and today the Twin Cities NWS made it official.

Minnesota set a new record for the highest number of tornadoes this year. Here are the numbers:

104 tornadoes in 2010 (4 EF4, 4EF3, 8 EF2, 30 EF1, 58 EF0)

Previous record: 74 tornadoes in 2001

3 deaths

Wadena tornado: EF4 rating. 10 mile path length. 17 minutes, 20 injuries.

It is quite remarkable (and fortunate) that none of the 104 tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010 touched down in Hennepin, Ramsey or Anoka counties. Thus the most densely populated core of the Twin Cities metro escaped 2010 without a tornado touchdown during the most active tornado year in Minnesota history.

NOAA SPC preliminary 2010 tornado count for Minnesota.

Imagine the devastation today from an outbreak similar to the incredible 1965 Twin Cities outbreak.

According to preliminary SPC reports Texas has posted 105 preliminary tornado reports so far in 2010. IT is almost certain that number will drop (possibly by a third) once final reports are issued at year's end. Thus, barring a major increase in the Texas numbers in the next 60 days, it is likely that Minnesota will lead the nation in observed tornadoes for the first time on record.

Is tornado alley shifting north?

There is no doubt that the epicenter of tornado alley shifted about 500 miles north in 2010.

The bigger question on the mind of many meteorologists and climatologists is whether these numbers signify a trend towards a northward shift in tornado alley. Or is 2010 just a blip in the longer term data.

I took a look at the numbers for tornadoes by decade in Minnesota and Oklahoma. It's not really an apples to apples comparison since Minnesota is slightly larger than Oklahoma, but it does show some interesting (and perhaps valid) trends.

You can see on the graph below that Minnesota's (bottom line) overall tornado numbers have been climbing, and Oklahoma's (top line) numbers have fallen sharply during the past decade.

The two lines crossed for the first time in 2010. Minnesota's 104 tornadoes is likely to exceed Oklahoma's still preliminary number of 73 by a large margin at year's end.

It is alarming to note that the average annual number of tornadoes in Minnesota has nearly doubled from 25.8 to 48.4 in the past 11 years when compared with the longer term averages since 1950!

With the annual average number of tornadoes in Minnesota at 48 per in the past 11 years, and the top two tornado years on record having occurred in the past 10 years, it will be interesting to see if the trend towards increased tornado numbers in Minnesota holds in the coming decade.

If this is the new normal, we may need to start thinking of Minnesota as "tornado alley north."

PH

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Minnesota retains tornado lead: Tornado warnings in New York

Posted at 4:05 PM on September 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

Minnesota is often rated #1 by so many measures. Here's a stat we probably would just as soon let go to some other state.

Minnesota retains the lead in preliminary tornado reports so far in 2010. Despite tornado warnings, there were no reports of any tornadoes in Minnesota Wednesday. The preliminary tornado tally for Minnesota in 2010 remains at 145.

Severe weather in Texas and Kansas this week has boosted tornado totals there. Here are the latest (still preliminary) SPC numbers.

Minnesota 145
Texas 96
Kansas 92
Oklahoma 73
North Dakota 68
Colorado 66
Wisconsin 61
Iowa 52

That means 4 of the top 8 tornado producing states this year are "polka states" in the Upper Midwest.

Signs of a trend?

As you can see Minnesota's tornado numbers are roughly DOUBLE Oklahoma's this year. Is this just a fluke, or a trend?

It is interesting to compare tornado numbers from each decade going back to the 1950s for Minnesota and Oklahoma.

Decade: Oklahoma/Minnesota/Difference

1950s 579 98 +481
1960s 615 223 +392
1970s 476 193 +283
1980s 522 229 +293
1990s 723 362 +361
2000s 529 463 +66
2010 73 145 -72 (this year only)

As you can see Minnesota closed the "tornado gap" significantly in the past decade when compared with Oklahoma in the heart of tornado alley.

New York City tornado?

Tornado warnings are flying for parts of New York City this afternoon.

Doppler is indicating rotating thunderstorms within a squall line of severe storms rolling through the NYC area. It is a common myth that tornadoes cannot occur in urban areas. Let's hope NYC escapes without any significant damage or tornado touchdowns.

PH

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September Chill

Posted at 8:25 AM on September 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

It's starting to feel a lot like September, or even October out there.

Many Minnesotans are asking, "Where did summer go?" The answer...it went to Oklahoma.

A family of Canadian cold fronts is forcing colder air down our throats in Minnesota these days. Temperatures are running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below average, and that trend will continue through the weekend.

Temperatures in the 30s and 40s are pooling north of the border, and Minnesota will be tapping that cooler air for the next few days.

Rogers tornado 4 years ago today:

You may recall the unusual and tragic Rogers tornado occurred 4 years ago today. The tornado was unusual in several aspects including that it struck at nearly 10pm at night. It also was considered a late season tornado in Minnesota. A 10 year old girl was killed by the twister when the home she was in collapsed on top of her.

I was in Rogers shortly after 10pm the night the tornado struck reporting for WCCO-TV. As I arrived at the Rogers exit on I-94 it was clear something was very, very wrong. The usually bright freeway frontage road was completely dark. The brightly lit car dealerships were black. As I pulled into town, huge high tension power lines lay perilously across the parking lot at the Rogers High School.

It was tough to see in the blackness, but it was clear that a major damaging wind event had struck.

The local NWS office caught a lot of flack for the lack of a tornado warning in Rogers. To be fair, the radar images from that night were very unusual for tornadoes. There was no classic hook echo as the storm approached from the west, and it would have been difficult to near impossible to provide an early warning for that unusually rapid tornadic storm.

Brighter note:

Ending on a brighter note, look for increasing sunshine as we head through the day in Minnesota.

PH

Texas closes "tornado gap"

Posted at 3:38 PM on September 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Tornadoes, Weekend

It was a good week for Texas tornadoes.

As many as 7 tornadoes touched down in Texas on Wednesday. Though there was damage and a few injuries, thankfully no one was killed in the outbreak.

The tornadoes were spawned by the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine as it swirled through the state this week. Some of the tornadoes formed in the Dallas area, including this one captured on video.

I'm keeping a close eye on the Texas tornado numbers. Minnesota still has a wide lead with 145 preliminary tornado reports this year according the SPC count. This week's tornado outbreak in Texas brings their second place total up to 94. As you would expect, Texas has lead the nation 7 of the past 10 years in overall tornado numbers.

Texas will likely (unfortunately) add to their tornado totals during the fall severe weather season. Hopefully, Minnesota's numbers will stay at or near 145. Both states will likely see final numbers revised downward about 15% when the final confirmations are complete and multiple sightings of the same tornado are eliminated.

If Minnesota leads the nation in tornadoes this year, it will be the first time on record that has occurred. We have already set records that will insure2010 will go down as the most active severe weather year in Minnesota history.

Weekend forecast: Rain then sun

Look for scattered rain and maybe a clap of thunder Friday night into early AM Saturday. The culprit is a front which will push east of Minnesota early Saturday. That should give way to sunshine as the day progresses, and set us up for a warmer and mostly sunny Sunday, with just an isolated shot at a stray thundershower.

Enjoy the weekend.

PH

Earl, Minnesota tornadoes, and a pretty good weekend.

Posted at 4:50 PM on September 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Weekend

Talk about a close call.

As Hurricane Earl sideswipes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the next potential target is battening down the hatches.

Cape Cod appears to be in line for another close encounter with Earl late Friday night.

Earl finally made the expected turn to the north-northeast late Thursday.

Though Earl is expected to weaken a bit ("weaker hurricane"...there's an oxymoron for you) it may still bring hurricane force winds to Cape Cod this weekend.

Gaston Next?

After Earl's east coast encounter all eyes will turn toward Gaston. Fiona is forecast to fizzle, but Gaston has at least some potential become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico and will bear watching next week.

Minnesota tornadoes generate international interest:

Not to overstate this, but I found it interesting to get a call today from a reporter in Canada about Minnesota's tornado numbers this year. Shane Judge is a reporter for the CBC News in Thunder Bay, Ontario. It seems our 145 preliminary tornado reports are getting some attention north of the border.

Shane says the meteorologists at Environment Canada (Canada's version of the National Weather Service) are reporting increased severe weather numbers this year in southwestern Ontario as well. You never think of Atikokan as tornado alley, but in this crazy summer it seems anything is possible.

Tanker runs aground in ice free Arctic:

It seems our new ice free summers in the Arctic are creating new opportunities and potential hazards for shipping. Check this out from CBC.

Pretty Good Weekend:

After Friday's foray into fall, the weather will mellow this weekend.

Look for a blustery Friday with highs on the 60s and a brisk gusty northwest wind at 15 to 30 mph over the lakes. Showers will spit rain in northeast Minnesota, and may roll down I-35 to just north and east of the metro by Friday PM.

Saturday and Sunday look spectacular statewide, and will be the best days to enjoy one last summer boat trip onto your favorite lake.

Look for plenty of sun, lighter winds and highs in the 60s Saturday with 70s statewide Sunday. Overnight lows will be nippy in the 40s north and near 50 south.

Labor Day will feature a strong southeast wind, a little more warmth and humidity and a chance of scattered thunderstorms.

PH

It's Official: June 17th set Minnesota record for tornadoes

Posted at 3:45 PM on August 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

The Twin Cities NWS office issued a report today confirming that the tornado outbreak on June 17th set the all time single day record for tornadoes in Minnesota.

According to the count so far, there were a total of at least 27 (and likely more than 40) confirmed tornades in Minnesota June 17th, and the Grand Forks office has yet to confirm the actual number of touchdowns in their forecast area. This included the Wadena EF4 tornado and several others.

From The Twin Cities NWS:

HOWEVER...THE GRAND FORKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS NOT
YET BEEN ABLE TO FINALIZE THEIR JUNE 17 TOTAL. THEY HAD MANY
TORNADOES IN THEIR AREA...INCLUDING TORNADOES RATED EF4 AT WADENA
AND ALMORA.

THUS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STATEWIDE TOTAL FOR JUNE 17
WILL BE IN THE 40S. THIS WILL EASILY ECLIPSE THE OLD RECORD OF 27
SET ON JUNE 16 1992.

It also looks like 2010, as reported here earlier this week, will end up as a record year for tornadoes in Minnesota. Again, here's the word from Twin Cities NWS.

THE SUMMER OF 2010...
WHILE JUNE 17 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HUGE NUMBER OF TORNADOES TO THE
STATEWIDE TALLY THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN MANY MORE TORNADO DAYS
SINCE THEN. IT HAS JUST BEEN WAY TOO BUSY TO TALLY ALL THE DAMAGE
SURVEYS... CORROBORATE SPOTTER REPORTS...VIEW ALL THE VIDEO AND
PHOTOS...AND CROSS CHECK DETAILS WITH RADAR...BUT IT LOOKS QUITE
LIKELY THAT 2010 WILL SET A RECORD FOR TORNADOES IN ONE YEAR. THAT
RECORD OF 74 WAS SET IN 2001.

It is still likely that we'll add to the number of tornadoes this year in Minnesota.

PH

Minnesota Tornadoes 2010: We're #1!

Posted at 3:30 PM on August 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner (15 Comments)
Filed under: Tornadoes

Tornado Alley moved to Minnesota in 2010.

Maybe we should update the state slogan to say; "Welcome to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and 100 tornadoes."

We all know it's been an insanely busy severe weather year in Minnesota, but I about leaped out of my weather lab chair when I counted up the preliminary number of SPC tornado reports by state for 2010.

Minnesota leads the nation in the number of tornado touchdowns this year...by FAR.

Preliminary numbers show Minnesota has 122 tornado reports so far in 2010. The #2 state isn't even close. Texas has reported 87 tornadoes so far in 2010.

That's right folks; the frozen tundra of Minnesota has had 35 more tornado reports this year than Tornado Alley Texas.

Here are the top 5 "tornado states" for 2010.
(Keep in mind these are preliminary numbers through August 15th)

1) Minnesota 122 tornado reports
2) Texas 87 tornado reports
3) Kansas 80 tornado reports
4) Oklahoma 70 tornado reports
5) Colorado 62 tornado reports

Wisconsin comes in 6th with 59 tornado reports so far this year.

The numbers are stunning and remarkable for many reasons.

-This would be the first year in recorded history that Minnesota leads the nation in tornado touchdowns. (I'm still working on confirming this.)

-Since 2000 Texas has lead the nation in tornadoes 7 years. Kansas has lead twice, and Illinois once. Here are the numbers.

2009 Texas 125 tornadoes
2008 Kansas 185 tornadoes
2007 Texas 198 tornadoes
2006 Illinois 123 tornadoes
2005 Kansas 136 tornadoes
2004 Texas 178 tornadoes
2003 Texas 155 tornadoes
2002 Texas 172 tornadoes
2001 Texas 137 tornadoes
2000 Texas 146 tornadoes

-Texas would need to record roughly another 36 tornadoes to surpass Minnesota this year. This is certainly possible, but it seems just as likely Minnesota may hold onto the number one spot at this late point in the season.

-This year may possibly break the all time state record for confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota, which is 74 set in 2001.

I've talked with several local weather and climate experts over the years who have noticed a trend toward increasing tornado numbers in Minnesota. The long term annual average for tornadoes in Minnesota since 1950 is about 26. In the past decade, that number has risen to around 40 tornadoes per year. 2010 blows that number off the charts so far.

The bottom line is tornado alley is shifting north, and it set up shop right over Minnesota this year. There are several possible explanations including random variability and...wait for it.... climate change. As heat and moisture shifts north it is perfectly logical and within the realm of possibility that tornado alley is shifting north into Minnesota.

The NWS and Storm Prediction Center will sift through all the preliminary tornado reports this year. If Minnesota ends up #1 in tornado reports in the nation in 2010 when all the numbers are counted, it will be one of the most unprecedented weather events in decades if not a century.

If you've ever wondered what it's like to live in tornado alley, now you know. Stay tuned as the final numbers are tallied for 2010 in the coming months. We're living some incredible weather history, right here in Minnesota this year.

PH

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