Updraft Category Archive: Summer

Everything you'd expect for July

Posted at 3:52 PM on July 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Storms, Summer

I'm suspect many of us recall when it heats up in July and the humidity tends to increase. We are approaching he mid point of the meteorological summer. Temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, humidity on the increase and scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the weather menu this weekend.

I'm looking upstream in the Dakota's where thunderstorms are firing and likely to move into northwest Minnesota this evening and across much of northern and central Minnesota in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Mid afternoon 2 mile resolution visible satellite image from NOAA centered on North Dakota.

Here's the model output from this morning's GFS run for expected rainfall from 1AM to 7AM Saturday. The blue color is the border of measurable rain.

The weather story out of Chanhassen NWS Office paints a nice summary of expectations for storms on Saturday.

No all day washouts are expected, but chances of getting a shower are about 50 percent. A boundary from Saturday's storms is expected to be the focus for more thunderstorms Saturday evening. It is very hard to define the location that is more likely to see strong storms Saturday night.

Looking ahead to Sunday, there remains a risk of severe storms in the heat and rather humid conditions across the central and southern sections of Minnesota and surrounding area.

This is the SPC's outlook for at least a 15 percent risk of severe storms Sunday and Sunday night.

The temperature reached 90 degrees at Twin Cities International Airport at 4PM. This is the seventh time this spring and summer season where the temperature has been 90 degrees or warmer. A normal summer (whatever that is) sees about 13 days where the mercury hits 90 or better in the Twin Cities.

A couple of widely scattered thundershowers extended from east of LeSeur to near Mapleton in southern Minnesota shortly after 4PM CDT.
CE

Holiday weekend, not too shabby

Posted at 6:55 AM on July 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer, Thunderstorms, Weekend

Overall this Fourth of July Holiday weekend was pretty nice in Minnesota. Saturday, Sunday and Monday were warm with plentiful sunshine. Dew points climbed into the 70s in parts of northwest Minnesota on Monday afternoon. Temperatures peaked at 90 degrees in Roseau and the Twin Cities, with a high of 85 at Duluth on Monday.

Thunderstorms rumbled across northern and central Minnesota overnight, dumping two thirds of an inch or rain or more at some locations, including St. Cloud. At daybreak thuderstorms were along the Iowa border in southwest Minnesota with a rather large area of rain in west central Minnesota.

Visible satellite image shows the bumps in the cloud cover where the thunderstorms were located at 630AM CDT. Notice the clearing line in in far northwest Minnesota.

The bigger picture shows quite the cloudcover centered over Minnesota this morning. This infrared image depicts the coldest cloud tops, typically associated with precipitation, in the blue color.

For today, skies should be partly to mostly sunny over the northern third of the Gopher State, with periods of showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Minnesota. Some strong storms are possible, mainly south of a line from Montevideo to the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Clearing skies are then expected from west to east during the course of the late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday will be just dandy, with some increase in humidity for southern Minnesota on Thursday. The look ahead for the weekend suggests warm with a chance for scattered thunderstorms, mainly southern Minnesota.

We are entering the climatological warmest time of the year. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA has outlined the upper Midwest with odds favoring above normal temperatures for mid July. That would keep maximum temperatures will into the 80s.

Here's a look at the future radar from an experimental WRF model being run from the Duluth NWS office. The image is showing radar reflectivity forecast at 3PM CDT this afternoon. The red colors are indicators of possible thunderstorms. This is a snapshot of the future radar based on computer model output. Interesting stuff.

Comment on this post

Perfect 10! Best week of summer? 95+ by Thursday?

Posted at 8:59 AM on June 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer

Call it "root beer float week."

That's what we call the first really hot week of summer around the weather lab, and it looks like we'd better stock up this week.

A spectacular looking forecast will finally bring a string of sunny, dry and increasingly warm days to cloud weary Minnesotans this week.

"Clean" high pressure:

The first "clean" high pressure system in weeks is building over Minnesota today & Wednesday. "Clean" ridges show strong "anticyclonic curvature" on the weather maps, and feature dry air from the surface up to several thousand feet.

Surface weather maps show dry high pressure eroding clouds over Minnesota.

The result is near total sunshine, and increasingly warm weather. That's our weather fare this week.

"Dirty" highs often have less curvature and residual moisture. That means clouds linger, even though high pressure builds at the surface. That's the weather we've seen often this year.

Summer heat builds later this week:

Today & Wednesday will feel almost perfect to Minnesotans. Highs into the upper 70s Tuesday should push into the mid 80s Wednesday.

The heat will really build Thursday, and a ridge of high pressure expands right over Minnesota. The strong southerly flow will push or "advect" hot air from the south & southwest into Minnesota Thursday.

Low 90s may be conservative by Thursday afternoon.

One method of temperature projections yields an afternoon high of 95 degrees or hotter for southern Minnesota Thursday PM. It is not out of the question that some bank thermometers in southwest Minnesota could flash 100+ degrees Thursday.

Tropical humidity gushes north:

Comfortable air will rule Minnesota through Wednesday with dew points in the comfy 50s & lower 60s.

But an increasingly tropical air mass will push into Minnesota starting Wednesday night. By Thursday, dew points may reach 70 degrees, and be climbing.

This sweaty, steamy tropical air mass will feature Amazon Jungle humidity levels Thursday. That sound you hear Thursday is the chorus of air conditioners humming along as heat indices peak over 100 degrees.

"Cooler" front Friday:

A weak cool front will push through Friday with fresh northwest winds, a drop in humidity...but only slightly cooler weather.

Temperatures may still peak at or near 90 Friday and into the start of the 4th of July weekend. It should be great weather for boating, or taking a dip in your favorite lake...even as lake water temps continue to trend on the cool side this year.

The 4th of July weekend looks great through Sunday right now....scattered T-Storm chances may increase Saturday night & as we approach the 4th.

Latest sunsets of the year this week!

These are the best days of the year at the weather lab. I'm a sunset guy, and this week marks the latest sunset times of the year in the northern hemisphere.

In the metro, the sun sets at 9:04pm right through Sunday. On clear nights there is still noticeable light in the northwest sky until well after 10pm!

In Roseau and Hallock the sunset is around 9:30pm this week!

These are the evenings to take that late evening stroll, bike ride or boat ride.

Ah summer!

Southwest Heat: Vegas weather dice come up with a record

Talk about a "dry heat!"

Las Vegas set an all time record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees Monday. Dew point depression is the difference between the temperature and dew point.

With a temp of 107, the dew point in Vegas was -22! Relative humidity was 1%! Now that's a dry heat.

RECORD REPORT

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 445 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2011

...ALL-TIME RECORD DEW POINT DEPRESSION SET AT LAS VEGAS TODAY...

AT 432 PM PDT TODAY THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN LAS VEGAS REACHED 129 DEGREES. THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS DEFINED AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE. IN THE CASE OF TODAY THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 107 DEGREES AT 432 PM AND THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE WAS -22 DEGREES. THIS MADE FOR A RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 1 PERCENT AT THE TIME. THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD DEW POINT DEPRESSION FOR LAS VEGAS WAS 120 DEGREES SET ON JULY 2ND 2007. THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND IS SUBJECT TO A FINAL REVIEW BEFORE BEING CERTIFIED BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER.

$$ STACHELSKI/GORELOW

More "dry heat" in Vegas today.

Enjoy our nearly "perfect" Minnesota weather today!

PH

Comment on this post

Summer 2010: Wet and wild

Posted at 9:14 AM on September 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer

Welcome to meteorological autumn.

September 1st marks the beginning of the fall season, meteorologically speaking. The months of September, October and November best represent fall for meteorological record keeping purposes.

As for meteorological summer 2010, it will be a record summer to remember in many ways. Frequent severe weather outbreaks highlight the sumemr of 2010.

-Minnesota's 145 tornado reports this year leads the nation. This is the first time on record that Minnesota has led the nation in reported tornadoes.

Keep in mind that many of these are still preliminary reports, and the final numbers may drop by as much as a third, but so will other state totals. Here are the top 7 states to date.

1) Minnesota 145
2) Texas 87
3) Kansas 80
4) Oklahoma 70
5) North Dakota 68
6) Colorado 66
7) Wisconsin 60

Texas and Oklahoma have the best chance at closing the tornado numbers with their typical fall severe weather season, but Minnesota's lead is significant at this point.

-The June 17th tornado outbreak smashed the record for the number of tornadoes in a single day in Minnesota. A total of 48 tornadoes skipped across Minnesota that day. That's nearly double previous record of 27 set on June 16th, 1992.

-A total of 4 EF4 tornadoes blasted Minnesota in 2010 including the devastating June 17th Wadena EF4 twister. They are the strongest tornadoes to hit the state in a decade.

Summer 2010 was significantly warmer than average in Minnesota. Here are some stats for MSP.

-It was the 5th warmest on record for the Twin Cities. (+3.2 degrees)

-It was the 3rd warmest August on record for the Twin Cities. (+6.4 degrees)

-We've suffered through 17 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro this year. The average is 13 days.

Summer 2010 was also wet in many locations in Minnesota, especially in the south. The Twin Cities summer rainfall total of 14.19" is only about 1.5" above average, but other communities recorded record amounts of rain this summer.

-This was the wettest summer on record for La Crosse with 20.93" and Wabasha with 24.59" recorded.

One reason for all the rainfall was the unusually high atmospheric moisture content over Minnesota this summer.

The average dew point for the Twin Cities is 61 degrees since June 1st. That's about 5 degrees above average. That's why it's felt so humid this summer, and the extra moisture has helped fuel storms.

The warm wet summer has a positive side. Minnesota will produce record crop yields this year. The severe weather is scattered enough that crop damage was minimal over the state as a whole.

Many of us will remember the summer of 2010 for a long time to come!

PH

Comment on this post

Autumn outlook

Posted at 6:52 AM on August 24, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer

Here is the ninety day temperature outlook for September through November from the Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

With one week of the meteorological summer remaining, it is time to look ahead to the autumn outlook that runs through November.

Seeing a recovery to warmer tempreatures this weekend and heading into early September, the outlook for the next the next six to ten days favors above normal temperatures in our neck of the woods. Remember when you view these images regarding outlooks it shows a confidence factor not the magnitude of above or below normal temperatures.

To recap the temperatures for the summer in the Twin Cities; there have been 15 days where the mercury has reached ninety degrees or better. The thirty year average is about 13 days. Last year we reached ninety only six days, including two in May. Each month of the meteorological summer has been above normal.

For the metro, based on observations at the Twin Cities International Airport, the average temperature for June and July was about three degrees above normal. So far for August we have seen temperatures average more than six degees above normal.

We were due for a cool down and it has arrived as advertised. Yesterday morning at this time the temperature was 70 at Bemidji. This morning, our friends in the northern part of the state, are waking up to 55 degrees.

As I scanned the preliminary rainfall for the past twenty-four hours it appears that totals were as little as a tenth of an inch to about a third of an inch. Here at the Eden Prairie weather lab I recorded 0.36 inches of moisture. It was the first good rain in over a week.

By Friday expect temperatures to climb back above normal and a warm weekend looks to be in store.

In case you are wondering the normal maximum and minimum for the Twin Cites falls from 77/57 on August 31st to 66/45 by September 30th.
CE

Comment on this post

Heat, humidity and a few (severe?) weekend storms

Posted at 5:08 PM on August 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Rainfall, Summer

Our fresh Canadian air mass was a beautiful respite from the sticky summer of 2010. As a warm front gurgles north this weekend, humidity, heat and (a few severe) storms are back.

Expect a little bit of everything this weekend.

Let's break down the weekend forecast one day at a time.

Friday night:

Most of Minnesota will enjoy a lovely evening with gradually rising humidity and gentle breezes. There will be a few scattered showers and T-Storms in far southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor. Look for overnight lows in the 40s north, 50s central and 60s south.

Saturday morning will start cool in northeast Minnesota.

Saturday:

Heat and humidity will bubble back north Saturday as a warm front moves north. Thunderstorms will increase in the eastern Dakotas, southern and western Minnesota as the day wears on.

The atmosphere overhead will be unstable enough that a storm could pop up anytime Saturday, but it looks like the most organized T-Storm clusters will move from western Minnesota early Saturday toward the Twin Cites metro by Saturday evening and into Saturday night.

Highs will be mostly in the 80s. Winds south 5-15 mph.

There is a slight risk that some of the storms could be severe. The SPC has placed much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe storms Saturday.

If severe weather occurs, the primary threat appears to be high winds and hail. A few isolated tornadoes are possible, but the atmosphere lacks widespread strong low level wind shear or "spin" to support large, long lived monster tornadoes. Translation? Maybe a spotty tornado or two but probably no big time June 17th style tornado outbreak.

Most areas may see between a thrid and three quarters of an inch of rain. A few of the storms could be "heavy rainers." There will be enough juice in the atmosphere to produce locally heavy rainfall over an inch if storms stall out in some areas.

Sunday:

A few storms may linger in eastern Minnesota Sunday morning. It looks like the warm front will then move north, which puts most of Minnesota into the hot sticky tropical air mass. Look for dew points to bubble into the sticky 70s again by Sunday. Temperatures should soar into the 90s again in much of southern Minnesota.

It looks like Sunday afternoon and evening may be (mostly) storm free. The heat and humidity will have air conditioners humming once again, and your favorite lake, beach or Dairy Queen will do a brisk business.

Enjoy a summer like weekend, but keep an eye out fro storms especially Saturday and Saturday night.

PH

Comment on this post

Free air conditioning

Posted at 8:12 AM on July 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Summer

Minnesotans can breathe easier today. Literally.

A fresh northwest breeze is ushering in a cooler and much drier air mass in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Canadian high pressure is building in from the northwest. The cooler clean Canadian air is cleaning out the haze and gunk and dropping dew points from the upper 70s and low 80s yesterday, to the 50s today. You'll notice (and hopefully enjoy) less than half the water vapor in the air today compared to Tuesday.

Storm reports:

Tuesday's line of severe thunderstorms spared many areas in the metro, but caused a swath of damage stretching from Fargo through St. Cloud to north of the metro (and northern metro) and into western and northern Wisconsin.

There are reports of injuries on Madeline Island in the popular Apostle Islands in northern Wisconsin, and near Mercer. The Duluth NWS office is sending a survey team to investigate today.

Here are the storm reports from the Duluth NWS.

DLH: Madeline Island [Ashland Co, WI] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of E60.00 MPH at 27 Jul, 06:00 PM CDT -- weather channel reports 3 injuries at campground on apostle islands. damage to cars and trees. time estimated by radar

DLH: Turtle Flambeau Flowage [Iron Co, MN] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:40 PM CDT -- *** 6 inj *** preliminary report. rescues in progress on the islands.

Weather winning streak?

There are signs that our stormy weather pattern may ease a bit over the next two weeks. Our next round of thunderstorms looks like it will roll through early Friday morning. Other than that, it should be a fairly quiet pattern as we head into the weekend.

After another shot at T-Storms Monday, next week may turn out fairly quiet for a change as a slightly drier northwest flow develops in the upper atmosphere.

The jet stream is never too far away though, and we'll have to keep an eye out for periodic storms. Hopefully our 6 week long onslaught of storms and severe weather parade is wining down.

Enjoy the best weather Minnesota has to offer today and tomorrow!

PH

Mid summer report card

Posted at 5:40 PM on July 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Summer

Welcome to mid summer.

July 16th marks the halfway point of meteorological summer (June 1 -August 31) in the northern hemisphere.

So how has the first half of summer 2010 treated Minnesota? Let's crunch the numbers.

Temperature: A+

So far in 2010 temperatures in Minnesota are running warmer than average, and much warmer than last summer.

Twin Cities: Temps so far are running nearly 2 degrees wamer than average through July 15th. June was about 1 degree above average, and July temperatures are running +4.3 degrees so far!

Last year temperatures were 2 degrees cooler than average. Temperatures this summer are running about 4 degrees warmer than last summer so far.

The temperature has spiked to 90 degrees 5 days so far in 2010 in the Twin Cities. The average to date is about 7. Last year we also had five 90 degree days to this point in the year.

Comments: It's been warm and summery, but not too hot so far this year. The air is warm; the lakes are warm and swimmable.

Rainfall: B+

Most locations in Minnesota have received ample rainfall so far this summer. The exception continues to be the North Shore, where drought conditions linger.

The Twin Cities has recorded 7.89" of rainfall since June 1st. That's 1.7" above average, and a full 4.77" above 2009 to date!

UM climate guru Mark Seeley tells me today there have been 18 days with thunderstorms in the Twin Cities so far in 2010. That's about average. Mark will have more on that on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer tomorrow at 6:45am.

The latest tornado tally in Minnesota this year is 36, including the NWS surveys for Wednesday's tornadoes. That's well above average. The long term annual average for Minnesota is about 24 tornadoes. In recent decades, that number has risen to near 40 per year.

Comments: After a quiet start to severe weather season, we've had some big severe weather outbreak days. June 17th was one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in Minnesota history. The deadly outbreak caused 3 fatatities in Minnesota.

Rainfall has been plentiful and well timed in most of Minnesota so far this summer season. The early warm growing season and ample rain has been a boom for crop development this year.

Overall grade summer 2010 to date: A-
Does it get any better than this on a whole for Minnesota?

PH

Comment on this post

Warmest two weeks of the year

Posted at 2:44 PM on July 12, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Summer

This is what many of us we wait for all year in Minnesota. Mid-July. Warm days, stinging sun, bathwater lakes, tropical nights and balmy breezes.

In spite of our the coolest day today so far in July, we are now entering the what is climatologically the warmest two week period of the year in Minnesota. On Tuesday, the average high in the Twin Cities hits 84 degrees, and stays there until July 27th.

That's the warmest average high temperature of the year in the Twin Cities. The average overnight low "tops out" at 64 degrees the next two weeks. It's pretty remarkable to think that we deal with sub-zero readings in winter when a cool breeze the rest of this month seems as far away as possible in Minnesota.

Even though the average high drops slightly to 83 degrees by month's end, the next 4 weeks are really the warmest on average in Minnesota.

Lag of the seasons:

Many people ask me why the warmest weather comes as much as a month after the summer solstice, when sun intensity is highest. It's called the seasonal lag.

The best analogy I can think of is your stove. If you turn the burner on high, it's doesn't heat a pot of water to boiling right away. It takes time for the heat energy to work into the system, and begin to boil the water. Our atmosphere works the same way. The incoming solar energy we received over the past month takes time to heat the system. So even though the sunlight is decreasing ever so slightly this time of year, temperatures continue to rise.

Enjoy the best that summer has to offer today, and stay tuned for more tomorrow on a potential severe weather outbreak heading in Wednesday.

PH

Photos on a lazy July day

Posted at 4:06 PM on July 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Summer

Okay, I'll admit it. I'm doing the Maytag weather repairman thing today. No storms. No heat waves. No flash floods.

Just a beautiful classic July day with pristine puffy white cumulus clouds drifting lazily overhead.

So hear you go. Here are some photos I snapped from around the weather lab capturing the day for those of you who may have been stuck inside today.

Hope you can enjoy.

PH

Puffy "fair weather" cumulus drifting by in a blue July sky.
(Photos by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger images)

Lilies enjoy recent rain and sunshine.

Hydrangea puffball

Mini dahlia

Lilies again

Plenty of rain for the hostas this year

Renegade snap dragon finds a home.

Comment on this post