The last weekend of March will really feel like....the first weekend of March.
Canadian high pressure is bringing plenty of sunshine, at a price. The sun also comes with a side of chilly days and sub freezing nights. Temps are running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend.
Metro averages are 46/28 this weekend. Expect highs in the lower 30s and lows in the teens this weekend in the south, with highs in the 20s north and lows near zero far north.
Warm up still on tap:
The weather pattern still shows signs of moderation late next week. It looks like a slow climb into the 40s, then a boost into the 50s by next Friday.
Snow stays south?
It looks like the southward trend of possibly significant snow next Monday night & Tuesday is favored. The GFS appears to keep the system close enough to brush the metro with light snow Monday night, and maybe produce a few inches along the I-90 corridor. The European model steers everything way south, keeping Minnesota high & dry.
This is still worth watching...stay tuned.
Flood updates: Better south now, Red River trouble later?
We've been (rightfully) focusing on rivers in southern Minnesota with this week's weather causing rapid river rises. As we head through the weekend the flood forecast continue to be optimistic for the south. A few flood warnings have even been dropped for now along the St. Croix.
-Latest southern Minnesota river levels and forecasts here.
The good news may be temporary. A warm up next week, additional snow melt and possibel future rain could lead to a second crest in southern minnesota Rivers in April. Here's the briefing from the NCRFC.
Red River trouble ahead?
Now that the cold snap has improved the short term outlook in the south, let's talk a little about the Red.
What was good for southern Minnesota this week did not help the longer term forecast for the Red River. MPR's Dan Gunderson details the latest here.
Last week's thaw did not melt much snow in the Red River watershed. This week's storm dumped another 10" of snow on top of already water laden snow cover.
The cold snap will delay flooding on the Red even more, but that opens the door to a potential rapid April warm up and potential for heavy rains.
Here are some detais from Friday's update on Red River flooding from the Grand Forks NWS.
Key points for the Red River Basin, from south to north:
- All points along the Red River now have a better than 98 percent risk of major flooding.
- Wahpeton and Fargo, now have a more than 40-45 percent risk of exceeding 2009 flood levels. [in 2009 Fargo hit a flood of record at 40.84 ft, Wahpeton hit 3rd place at 17.5 ft]
- The flood risk at Halstad is back up to a 25 percent risk of exceeding 2009 levels.
- Grand Forks flood risk levels have increased by a foot or more due to a reduced margin of error for timing on Red River and Red Lake River crests, and increased Red River flows.
- Continuing north, Oslo now has a better than 60 percent risk for record flooding, while both Drayton and Pembina have had their flood risks increased only slightly.
On North Dakota Tributaries:
- The ND Wild Rice at Abercrombie has a 30-35 percent risk of 2009 scale flooding.
- The risk levels along the Sheyenne River from Valley City into Lisbon have increased by as much as a foot or more, to about a 25 percent risk of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels. Past Lisbon into Kindred, West Fargo, and Harwood the flood risks will likely meet or exceed 2009 levels (60-80 percent chance).
- Enderlin and Mapleton on the Maple River now have a 50 percent risk of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Goose River into Hillboro has jumped roughly a foot, as recent snowfall has more than exceeded recent melt and runoff.
- Otherwise, risk along the Forest, Park, and Pembina Rivers has dropped just slightly.
On Minnesota Tributaries:
- Risk along the Buffalo River has stayed steady, as recent snowfall has nearly equaled previous runoff.
- Risk along the MN Wild Rice at Hendrum is now nearly 50 percent of meeting or exceeding 1997's record [33.85 ft].
- Risk along the Sand Hill and Marsh Rivers is now around 30-40 percent of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Red Lake River has remained steady with Crookston having a 35 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels.
- Risks along the Snake and Two Rivers sub-basins have dropped by half a foot, while risk along the Roseau River has increased by about half a foot.
The bottom line for the Red is, the gun is still loaded so to speak. It's now all about weather in the next month, and how quickly or slowly the snow melts...and how much rain we add on top.
Here are a few web cams to track river levels, and see what river conditions look like.
Have a great weekend!
Here's some potentially good news in a sea of bad weather this week.
Most river level forecasts have been revised lower in the next week.
The latest updates from the hydrologists at the NCRFC in Chanhassen have lowered river level forecasts for some river locations as much as 3.5 feet from forecasts earlier this week.
The changes are largely due to the latest round of cold weather this week. The cold "locks up" moisture by freezing it in place on the landscape, instead of creating the runoff that would happen with above freezing temps.
Keep in mind that specific forecast river crest "numbers" and timing are best estimates within a wider overall forecast range. Forecasts will likey be modified in the coming days as new data is fed into hydrologic models.
Mississippi @ St. Paul: Forecast rise to 18.9' next week.
(Down 3.5 feet from earlier forecast!)
Crow River @ Delano: Forecast crest at 18.8' Saturday night.
(Down 1.7 feet from earlier forecast) Forecast to fall below 17 feet again next week!
Minnesota River @ Mankato: Forecast crest at 25' Saturday.
(Down 2 feet from forecast earlier this week.)
Minnesota @ Henderson: Forecast crest at 737.4' Sunday.
(Down 1.1 feet from forecast earlier this week)
Minnesota @ Jordan: Forecast crest at 32' Monday & Tuesday.
(Down 1 foot from earlier forecast)
Minnesota @ Shakopee: Forecast crest 715.8' Tuesday & Wednesday.
(Down 1.2 feet from earlier forecasts)
Minnesota @ Savage: Forecast crest at 713.4 Thursday.
(Down from 0.6' from earlier forecasts)
St. Criox @ Stillwater: Forecast rise to 87.1' Thursday.
(Down 0.7' from earlier forecasts)
Let's hope these latest forecasts reflect an overall trend that keeps floodwaters a little more in check the next few days.
Next snow Tuesday?
I know, I know. I hate to even mention it. But after what looks like a few much needed dry days through the weekend, it looks like our next chance of snow could be on the horizon.
Remember models can and often do change dramatically 5 days out.
The GFS insists on brining another potentially potent low pressure system into the Upper Midwest by next Monday night and Tuesday. Take a deep breath and look at the meteogram below.
Yep. That's 8+ inches of snow on the chart for the 12z morning run, but less from the 18z afternoon run. Remember, we don't issue snowfall forecasts 5 days in advance and there is some indication that system could steer south. Also the GFS has grossly overforecast snow totals for the last few events. And the European model seems to suggest the southward track which could leave Minnesota high and (thankfully) dry next week.
But be aware that there is at least the possibility of significant snow next Tuesday.
Hang in there; it still looks warmer by next weekend!
The cold weather we're feeling may have a benefit. Slightly lower flood forecasts and river levels.
Before I launch into the potentially slightly good news, let's be clear about one thing. This is going to be (and already is) a major flood for many river locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin & North Dakota.
We've already lost one brave life fighting the rising waters. Roads are already closed or washed out. Thousands of hard working public employees and river residents are working hard building dikes and levees to protect us all from the rising water.
That said, there are some rays of hope regarding the flood scenario late this week.
1) Snow, not rain:
The fact that the second half of out Tuesday-Wednesday storm was snow and not rain is good news. Instead of running directly into area rivers, Wednesday's snow is still white sitting on your lawn. This is good news since we didn't add any more runoff once the rain changed to snow.
2) Sub freezing air:
We may be tempted to bemoan yet another frigid Canadian high pressure center pouring south into Minnesota after this rigorous winter. But that cold air we're feeling has a benefit. The sub-freezing air means the snow is still frozen on the ground, and not running into already swollen rivers.
The freeze will "lock up" most of the potential runoff the next few days. This will give rivers a chance to move water downstream, without adding copious amounts of "new" runoff that would further spike river levels.
3) Dry forecast through Monday?
Our friendly neighborhood Canadian high pressure center will provide another benefit with regard to the flood scenario. It looks like it may steer another storm system to our south this weekend, and keep us dry through Monday.
That should give us 5 days to dry out without adding additional moisture to the flood scenario.
Latest flood forecasts: Levels down 1 to 2 feet!
While most rivers are still forecast to reach major flood stage this weekend or next week, the trend is encouraging.
Today's flood forecasts from the NCRFC lower crests between 1 and 2 feet for many area rivers. (Keep in mind the river level "number" is within a greater forecast "range" of possibility.)
Here's the latest:
Crow @ Delano: Projected crest at 19.1' Saturday-Sunday.
(Down from 20.5' or 1.4' lower!)
Minnesota River @ Mankato: Projected crest 26' Saturday.
(Down from 27' or 1' lower)
Minnesota @ Henderson: Projected crest 737.7' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 738.5')
Minnesota @ Jordan: Projected crest 32' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 33')
Minnesota @ Savage & Shakopee:
(Also down about 1 foot below previous crest forecast)
Mississippi @ St. Paul: Projected rise to 20.4' next Wednesday.
(Down from 22.4' or 2.4' lower than previous projection!)
St. Croix @ Stillwater: Projected rise to 86.13' next Wednesday.
(Down from 87.8' or 1.6 feet)
Next snow Tuesday?
The GFS is hinting that a low pressure system may track this way by late Monday night or Tuesday of next week. That could be our next shot of snow, unless the system steers south. It's way early to say this system will hit us for sure...just a possibility at this point.
Cold lingers next week?
It looks like we may end up colder than average through next week with highs mostly in the 30s and sub freezing nights.
Warmer next weekend?
There is still some indication temps may rebound nicely the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. Highs in the 50s are possible, but we'll have to see if we get that warm as time evolves.
Potential rain (& snow?) week of April 4th & 5th?
Okay this is wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb. The GFS is hinting at the potential for significant rain possibly ending as snow during the April 4-5 time frame. Too early to make a call here (could be pure model fantasy at this point)...but the trend has been evident in more than one model run.
Add it all up, and you may have a "double crest" on many area rivers. One crest may occur this weekend or next week, and another could happen in the next 2-3 weeks.
This might not be a bad thing. It could keep overall river levels high for a longer period of time, but avoid a potentially higher flood crest in the process.
The downside of prolonged elevated river levels is that we're more vulnerable to a big storm that could dump heavy rain as the weeks go by.
The cold is probably good news in the short run, but prolonged high river levels leave us vulnerable to flooding rains this spring.