Updraft Category Archive: Springtime

Winterlike weekend, followed by a taste of spring

Posted at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Springtime, Tornadoes, Winter 2011-12

We are closing out the books on one of the warmest meteorological winters on record. For the months of December, January and February the Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls was nine degrees warmer than the new normal.

International Falls tallied three days of 20 below zero or colder for overnight minimums. Their coldest morning was 25 below zero on January 19th. That's also the coldest morning experienced in the Twin Cities when the mercury dropped to minus 11 at the International Airport.

On only two days during the winter did the temperature fail to climb above zero in International Falls. *there are two days in February when temperatures were not recorded. The high of 46 degrees on January 5th in the Falls broke the old record of 36 degrees set in 1984.

In the Twin Cities there were no recorded days of below zero in December or February at the big Airport.

Here's a statement from the NWS Grand Forks Office..... Based on the early information the meteorological winter months of December 2011 through February 2012 was the warmest for the Fargo Area, and in the top ten for the Grand Forks Area.

Snowfall has been sparse in the northern end of the Red River Valley. That's good news for the spring flood threat.

From the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the snow depth as of Thursday morning.

This morning Grand Forks reported a snow depth of 5 inches with 7 inches on the ground at Fargo. Another inch or two of snow is possible in the Red River Valley in the next couple of days.

An area of snow was beginning to show up on radar in southwest Minnesota late this afternoon.

Here's a snapshot from 415pm. Some of the snow may not have been reaching the ground.

Checking out the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, the snow is likely to continue to expand and move northeast this evening. A fresh coating of around an inch of snow is possible in the metro.

HRRR simulated radar for 9pm.

After seasonal temperatures this weekend, the models are continuing to trend towards a significant moderation. Looking out to the eight to fourteen day forecast there is high confidence in above normal temperatures as posted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center;

I've been reading the stories about the nighttime tornadoes that struck Missiouri and Illinois earlier this week. The EF4 tornado that devasted Harrisburg, Illinois touched down shortly before 5am, under the cover of darkness.

One of the comments listed that an emergency official heard the outdoor siren was able to move quickly to shelter. People need to have an indoor weather alert radio. Do me a favor and get one for your home this season.

Another threat of dangerous storms is in the weather picture for the Ohio Valley on Friday. Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather potential as they see it this afternoon for Friday afternoon.

Enjoy the snow this weekend. The melt begins Monday. Highs well into the 40s next week. Some readings approaching 60 degrees are possible in southwest Minnesota.
CE

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Nice Thursday, Saturday monsoon, 1st heat wave in sight?

Posted at 7:53 AM on May 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Rainfall, Springtime

You can't please all of the people all of the time, but chances are you'll find some weather you like in the next two weeks in Minnesota.

As Rod Serling used to say in the classic Twilight Zone series; "Submitted for your approval."

(Click images to enlarge)

Thursday: Weather perfection

It just doesn't get much better than this in Minnesota. Some of the best weather on the planet will hover over Minnesota today. Look for a mix of sunshine and a few clouds today. Cloud cover will be greatest in southern Minnesota today, and may nudge the metro from time to time.

High temperatures will make the lower 70s in most areas this afternoon, with cooler 50s near Lake Superior on the North Shore. Winds will be light from the east.

Friday & Saturday: Next rainmaker moves in

Our next weathermaker has been sitting over the Rockies all week. The "Omega Block" high pressure cell that has delivered dry sunny weather to Minnesota is breaking down. Low pressure will swirl east from the Rockies into Minnesota this weekend.

The first waves of rain (& some thunder) should arrive Friday. A few rounds of showers and embedded T-Storms will move through Saturday. At this time various forecast model scenarios for Saturday range from a round or two of rain & thunder, to an all-day washout.

Forecast Models: Wet start to the weekend

Rainfall Friday & Saturday could easily fall into the .50" to 1"+ category for many locations in Minnesota. Due to the convective nature of the precip, there could be some downpours with localized heavier rainfall totals. Some 2"+ totals can't be ruled out this weekend.

Temps may hover around 70 for much of Saturday, with 60s under some of the heavier shower bands.

Sure would be nice to get a dry weekend for baseball tournaments for once, but it just doesn't appear to be in the cards for Saturday.

Sunday: Drier day of the weekend?

By Sunday the core of the heavy rain producing part of the storm will shift east of Minnesota. We may mix in several hours of sunny to partly cloudy skies, but a few pop up showers can't be ruled out Sunday.

It may feel a bit more like summer Sunday PM, with highs in the upper 70s.

"Wurzer Weather" Ahead: First summery heat wave in sight?

My MPR colleague and Morning Edition Host Cathy Wurzer loves hot, summery weather. Cathy just might be a happy camper in about two weeks.

MPR's Cathy Wurzer

This may be going way out on the proverbial weather limb, but there may be a trend developing that could bring the first summer-like heat to Minnesota the first week of June. (Yes, can you believe June 1st is only 13 days away?!)

The latest GFS model trends indicate the possibility of a hot dome of high pressure developing in the east and shifting westward into the central USA in two weeks. This "Bermuda High" pattern is the mechanism which brings summertime heat to the eastern half of the good old USA.

GFS: "Bermuda type" high pressure pumps heat into the Midwest on June 2nd.

If the Bermuda High shifts west into the central U.S. a hot humid air mass will pump warm air and Gulf moisture north into the Upper Midwest.

It is early, but it's possible our first prolonged string of humid 80 degree plus weather is one the way the first week of June. If the pattern intensifies, we could even see our first 90s of the season in about two weeks.

We just turned off the heat. Is it already time to get the AC unit tuned up? Welcome to Minnesota.

Stay tuned.

Brightest 60 days ahead!

It's hard to fathom after what seemed like endless winter, but the longest daylight of the year is now upon us.

We hit 15 hours of daylight in the Twin Cities today. We will have at least 15 hours of daylight from now until July 24th. Check out this cool sunrise/sunset calendar to track our increasing daylight.

It's hard to believe but the summer solstice arrives in less than 5 weeks! What happened to spring in Minnesota?

April 2011: "Tornado Katrina"

Path of devestation in Alabama.

The Weather Channel's Stu Ostro has an interesting look at April's record tornado outbreaks. Did we just witness a "Tornado Katrina" last month?

"The ingredients were "textbook." I mean, literally what I learned from a textbook more than 30 years ago. The atmosphere was explosively unstable with summerlike heat and humidity, interacting with a classic wind shear setup as a strong jet stream and upper-level trough crashed overhead. Also, dry air aloft (dark red shades on the left image below) put a lid on things and allowed the energy to build up until it blew sky high.

Such a set of combustible ingredients, plus a remarkable number of supercells with hook echoes on radar and "ground-truth" observations of tornadoes, led Dr. Forbes and me to decide to up TWC's "TOR:CON" index to a 10 for northern Alabama, meaning a 100% chance of a tornado within 50 miles, the first time that's been done since the product was developed a couple of years ago."

Many of us who studied meteorology have always used the April 1974 "Super Outbreak" as the baseline for tornado extremes. Last month blew those numbers out of the water, and reminded us all that weather records are meant to be broken.

NOAA Geodetic Survey: Go West young man!

What do you think of as the center of the United States? New York? Chicago? Maybe L.A.?

Nope. Try Plato, Missouri.

That's the newest "center of national population" according to NOAA's Geodetic survey from 2010 U.S. Census data.

Plato is in the Ozarks in south central Missouri about 100 miles southwest of St. Louis.

The USA population center shifted about 20 miles further southwest since 2000. It has moved 873 miles southwest since 1790 when the first center was calculated to be just west of Baltimore, MD.

The population center has shifted steadily west over the past 200 years as you might expect. It was in southern Ohio in the 1850s, southern Indiana in 1900, and southern Illinois in the 1950s through the 1970s. The population center has resided in Missouri since 1980.

"Washington is not a place to live in. The rents are high, the food is bad, the dust is disgusting and the morals are deplorable. Go West, young man, go West and grow up with the country." -- Horace Greeley

PH

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Evening weather update: Clouds & spotty showers

Posted at 8:44 AM on May 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Springtime

Update 5:30pm:

As expected this morning clouds and a few spotty showers are "retrograding" back toward Minnesota form the east.

Twin Cities radar loop shows spotty elevated showers or "virga" pushing west.

GOES 1km visible satellite image shows clouds spreading into the metro and eastern Minnesota. "Streamlines" show surface wind direction.

Expect clouds and a few isolated spotty showers this evening. It will still be nice for most outdoor activities this evening, but the character of our weather has changed through tonight.

PH

*****

Welcome to day #4 of our picture perfect Minnesota weather, for now.

A ridge of high pressure has been protecting Minnesota from two storms this week. Under the ridge, dry sunny weather has blessed cloud weary Minnesotans. To the west, a storm in the Rockies spins away. To the east, an Ohio Valley storm is spinning showers as close as Madison.

Eastern system "retrogrades" westward:

The upper air pattern is "stuck" over North America this week. The eastern system which is spinning in the Ohio Valley is actually moving back toward the west, or "retrograding" toward Minnesota today.

The system is spinning a band of showers westward through Wisconsin. The showery band runs from Green Bay to Madison this morning, and it's moving back west toward Minnesota. One model, the NAM suggests it could reach far enough west to spread clouds and a few showers into eastern Minnesota including the Twin Cities by this evening.

Radar and satellite trends seem to support this notion. It looks like our "picture perfect" weather may briefly take a turn for the cloudier and wetter this evening.

"Omega Block" breaking down:

I talked earlier this week about the "Omega Block" upper air pattern that's brining nice weather to Minnesota this week. The ridge of sunny, milder weather is starting to break down today. The eastern & western storms will close the gap, and it looks like the western system will finally move in by Friday & Saturday bringing a few rounds of showers & T-Storms.

Models painting rain chances this weekend.

Unlike last weekend (why do storms always seem to fall on our weekends?) this system will feel a bit more summery. Temperatures should be milder and reach into the 70s between showers & T-Storm bouts this weekend.

Overall rainfall totals may fall in the .50" to 1" range for many locations this weekend.

It appears the bulk of the rain may favor Friday night and Saturday morning now...but timing of these systems is often not possible 2-3 days out.

Bottom line? Expect a few rounds of scattered showers & T-Storms this weekend, with some dry hours in between.

Here's my forecast breakdown through the weekend:

Today: Sunny start. High near 70. Clouds increase form the east late. Spotty showers possible this evening.

Thursday: Mostly sunny again. Mild High near 72.

Friday: Western storm pushes closer. Mixed sun & clouds. High near 72. Shower & T-Storm chances increase PM.

Saturday: Scattered showers & T-Storms. Muggy & milder in between storms. High near 74. Rainfall totals .50" to 1" in spots?

Sunday: Mixed sun & clouds with spotty storms. Several dry hours too. High near 74.

May sky show delights shuttle launch observers:

I posted recently about the ongoing sky show in the eastern sky during the month of May.

It seems conditions were perfect for viewing the show in the dawn sky as the Space Shuttle Endeavour prepared fro launch Monday.

"I witnessed the launch of Endeavour early Monday morning and was greeted by this scene when I arrived at NASA's VIP viewing site on Banana Creek," says photographer Tom Cocchiaro of the New Hampshire Astronomical Society. "It was as though the Gods were watching over Endeavour as it sat perched on the launch pad in the early twilight hours. Too cool for words."

You can check out more images from NASA at spaceweather.com.

Enjoy the beautiful start to today, but keep an eye to the east for late day clouds & possible showers.

PH

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Best weather in 7 months! Last frost behind us?

Posted at 9:07 AM on May 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Springtime

Welcome to the "best" stretch of weather in Minnesota in over 7 months!

"Good" weather is relative of course, but with 5 dry days in a row this week this does look like the longest sunny, dry and mild run of weather since last October & November.

Twin Cities forecast "meteogram" shows temperatures rising this week!
(Click to enlarge)

Some numbers:

5 sunny dry days in the 60s & 70s this week (Sunday through Thursday)

6 dry but cooler days in late march (March 24th -30th, temps 30s & 40s)

7 months since we've had a dry spell this long with temperatures in the 60s. (October 28th to November 9th)

"Omega Block" brings great spring weather:

We call this upper air pattern an "Omega Block" in meteorological terms. Troughs in the west and east bracket a big bulging ridge of high pressure centered over Minnesota this week. This "high amplitude" wave pattern brings sunny dry & milder weather to Minnesota.

"Omega Block" pattern brings dry weather this week.

A chorus of lawn mowers.

The hum of lawn mowers was loud and consistent Sunday. The first dry day in a while finally allowed people to get out and cut the grass, many for the first time this year. I cut the weather lab grass for the first time this season Sunday. May 15th is the latest I can ever remember for a first lawn mowing in the metro. Usually you hear mowers going in late April, but not this year.

I also had the chance to put the weather lab "yacht" in Sunday on Lake Minnetonka. Okay, yacht is a bit generous; it's more like a classic Lund putt putt. But it does get me to and from sailing nicely, and allows me to take "observations" of lake conditions and water temps on Minnetonka.

High water warnings are in effect for Lake Minnetonka this spring. You must operate with minimum wake anywhere inside of 600 feet from shore to prevent erosion this spring.

I can't remember seeing Minnetonka this high for many years.

Minnehaha Creek is raging thanks to a dishcarge of 250 CFS from Gray's Bay Dam on Lake Minnetonka.

A check of the boat docks in Carsons Bay shows only about 30% of all boat slips occupied as of May 15th. That's a really low number thanks to our reluctant spring.

Cool May so far:

-1.5 degrees cooler than average in the metro.

88 degrees last Tuesday on May 10th, promptly followed by severe hailstorms and a tornado in St. Michael.

32 degrees at Twin Cities Airport on May 3rd. That is the coldest temp recorded this month. Could that have been our last frost in the spring of 2011?

April 29th - the average date of the last 32 degree reading at MSP Airport.

Looking at the weather pattern 2 weeks out, it is highly likely that our last metro frost is now behind us. Frost is common in northeast Minnesota well into June.

Wet weekend ahead?

Just in time for the weekend, the next rainmaker appears to be headed this way. A slow moving low pressure trof may spread showers and T-Storms in here as early as Friday. The unsettled weather could last into the weekend. Yikes!

GFS model paints rain in Minnesota Saturday morning.

Southern flood woes continue:

At least our flood threat is passed in Minnesota for now. Some of that same water that was sitting on our snow covered landscape is now surging through Mississippi and Louisiana.

Morganza Spillway opens in Louisiana.

Vicksburg, Mississippi exceeded the all time flood record on the Mighty Miss over the weekend.

The slow motion flood disaster will continue this week.

Enjoy our sunny, "perfect" May weather this week!

PH

Rainy Thursday, St. Michael tornado survey, chilly fishing opener

Posted at 9:12 AM on May 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Rainfall, Springtime

They say there are no guarantees in weather, but there are a few things we seem to be able to count on in Minnesota in May.

-We'll likely get our first bouts of severe weather

-We usually hit 80 for the first time

-It seems the fishing opener is usually cool and wet

Check, check, and check this week.

Rain returns:

The next low pressure wave is lifting north into Minnesota today. Bands of showers wrapping around the low will spiral through, and gain intensity this afternoon.

It looks like most areas will see between .25" and .50" of rainfall by late tonight. Southwest Minnesota may as much as 1"+ as the system spins through today.

A cooler northeast wind is dropping temps into the 40s and 50s.

We may catch a break in the rain Friday before more rain wraps in Saturday. There may be some 1"+ totals through Sunday.

NAM 84 hour rainfall totals show a soggy 1" to 2" potential.

Chilly soggy fishing opener:

It sometimes seems fishing opener weekend is plagued by cool windy wet weather. This year will fully live up to expectations.

A cool low pressure system will swirl over Minnesota this weekend. Rain should be on the increase Saturday, with weather gradually improving from north to south Sunday.

Here's the breakdown.

Friday: Windy & cool with mixed sun south & west, showers north & east. Highs in the 40s north and 50s south. Wind NE 10-22mph with choppy lakes.

Saturday: Windy & cool with scattered showers increasing statewide. Highs 40s north & 50s south. Wind NE 15-25 mph. Again, choppy water with some bigger waves on the big lakes.

Sunday: Weather improves from north to south. Sunny with lighter winds north. Showers south. Afternoon highs in the 60s from Brainerd north. 50s south. Wind NE gradually diminishing north to 5-12 mph. NE 10-20 mph south.

Weather tip: Find a quiet bay on the north end of your favorite lake where wave action will be less. A fireplace in the cabin will be very nice this weekend!

Good luck on the opener. Stay warm and dry, and remember those lake water temps are still hypothermic! With the cold water, wind and waves, life jackets are not optional this weekend.

Minnesota's first tornado of 2011: St. Michael EF1

Damage to a home in St. Michael. (Photo by Twin Cities NWS)

The damage survey is in and it confirms what we saw Tuesday. Minnesota's first tornado of the year tore through St. Michael Tuesday evening.

Here are the details from Todd Krause and the survey team at the Twin Cities NWS.

Location: St. Michael, MN

Intensity: EF1 rating with top winds of 90 mph. Most of the damage was EF0 with 70-80 mph winds.

The details from Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...PRELIMINARY RATING ASSIGNED TO THE ST MICHAEL AREA TORNADO...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT WAS DONE TODAY
FOR THE STORM THAT OCCURRED IN FAR EASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY ON
TUESDAY EVENING. HERE ARE THE PRELIMINARY DETAILS...WHICH ARE
SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVIEW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EVENT...EF-1 TORNADO. EF-Scale

MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS...NEAR 90 MPH.

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES.

PATH DETAILS...FROM TWO MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN HANOVER...NEAR
THE INTERSECTIONS OF COUNTY ROADS 34 AND 120...NORTH NORTHEAST TO
ONE MILE WEST OF ST. MICHAEL...DISSIPATING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
45TH STREET AND JAMISON AVENUE INTERSECTION.

TIMING...THIS IS STILL BEING DETERMINED...BUT LIKELY TOUCHDOWN
OCCURRED JUST PRIOR TO 800 PM.

OTHER NOTES...MUCH OF THE DAMAGE WAS IN LINE WITH EF-0 DAMAGE AND
WIND SPEEDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THE STRONGEST INTENSITY OF EF-1 WAS
SEEN NEAR THE END OF THE PATH...WHERE A GARAGE WAS HEAVILY
DAMAGED.

$$

KRAUSE/MTF

Summary of the Tornado

"The tornado touched down just east of the intersection of County Roads 34 and120 and tracked north-northeast for 3.1 miles. The only time it deviated from this track was toward the end of its existence, when it made a slight turn toward the north-northwest and intensified. After hitting the house, it turned back toward the north-northeast and quickly dissipated. The tornado was narrow, only 75 feet wide at most, and it was often narrower than 75 feet.

Most eyewitnesses did not realize there was a tornado, because they did not see the debris swirling at ground level and the funnel did not extend all the way to the ground. It turns out that the condensation funnel only extended downward for some distance, then it appeared like there was nothing, then the debris at the surface. However, the violently rotating wind made it all the way to the ground but there was not enough humidity in the few thousand feet above the ground to condense and create the cloud that makes the tornado visible."

Mississippi falling at Memphis:

The mighty Mississippi has crested is finally starting to fall at Memphis.

The 47.87' crest Tuesday appears to be the 2nd highest flood of record in Memphis, within 1 foot of the record of 48.7' reached in 1937.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at Memphis

(1) 48.70 ft on 02/10/1937
(2) 45.80 ft on 04/23/1927
(3) 40.76 ft on 03/14/1997
(4) 40.50 ft on 05/08/1973
(5) 40.50 ft on 02/22/1950
(6) 40.30 ft on 03/07/1975
(7) 40.20 ft on 05/22/1961
(8) 39.20 ft on 04/06/1945
(9) 39.20 ft on 05/15/1983
(10) 39.10 ft on 06/01/1995

The Mississippi river did set new records this year near Memphis.

The flood bubble is now moving downstream to Vicksburg, Mississippi where the river is expected to crest next week at record levels.

Flood from space:

Ironically, one of the best ways to see a big flood like this is from space. The Mississippi has swollen to 3 miles wide near Memphis.

Check out the before and after images form NASA's Earth Observatory (Landsat 5 satellite) as the river swells near Memphis.

Memphis before the flood on April 21st, 2010.

Memphis during the flood on May 10, 2011.

Lightning strikes plane landing at London's Heathrow Airport:

Believe it or not, airplanes are largely safe from lightning strikes. Want proof? Check out this "striking" video from a plane on final approach to London's Heathrow Airport.

The UAE jet landed minutes later with its more than 500 passengers and crew unscathed... without a scratch on the plane.

The footage was captured last month in South West London by photographer Chris Dawson, who said he thought the weather conditions that day would be perfect for a lightning storm. Boy was he right.

A phenomenon known as the skin effect generally keeps people in cars and airplanes safe from lighting strikes.

PH

Like July; A run at 90; Severe risk late today

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

We all know spring can be short in Minnesota. But even this seems a bit ridiculous.

"Instant summer" kicks in today, as a powerful warm front pushes north from Iowa.

South of the front, temperatures hit 100 Monday in Nebraska and Kansas. It was 90 degrees as close as northwest Iowa with several records smashed.

The warm front will take up a position just south of the metro later today. Temperatures should surge into the 90s in southern Minnesota this afternoon, with the metro making a run at 90. Where we end up will depend on two things... just how much cloud cover we get today and how far north the front can push. If we get enough sun and the front eases north into the metro, we could hit 90 at MSP Airport late today.

Dew points on the rise:

You'll notice the heat later today, and the increasing moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points will climb into the 60s today. That's when most Minnesotans start to notice that it feels humid outside.

Models show dew points rising into the 60s & maybe 70s!

That moisture is also available as fuel for thunderstorms if they do develop.

Slight risk:

I've been showing you the SPC risk areas that include Minnesota today.

Here's the technical discussion from SPC. I've highlighted the area I think is most important today.

...MN/WI...

SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD OR NWWD TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD...EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO SRN
WI BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF WARM FRONT TODAY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 2500-3500+ J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LEAVING SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION IN QUESTION DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NRN OR CNTRL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
INVOF SURFACE FRONTAL OCCLUSION.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH TO A SEWD-MOVING MCS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO PARTS OF WI.

But will they blow?

Diagnosing severe weather is a little like completing a puzzle. You may have most of the pieces in place, but if just one key piece is missing, you can't complete the picture.

Our atmosphere has plenty of what we call "conditional instability" today over Minnesota. But we may not have a "trigger" to get storms firing. And the atmosphere reamins "capped" over much of southern Minnesota.

What is "capping?"

We all know warm air rises. In the atmosphere warm air will rise until it encounters a warmer or more "stable" layer above. In meteorology we call this a "cap" because it puts a lid on thunderstorm development.

You can have all the wind shear and unstable air in the lower layers, but until you can "bust the cap" no storms will develop.

If you look at today's upper air "sounding" you can see the little bumps in the temperatures below. There are two "caps" today between about 5,000 and 9,000 feet above ground level. This may be enough to prevent storms from forming later today in southern Minnesota.

Twin Cities Upper Air sounding shows "capping" that may prevent storms.

Right now it looks like the best chance of breaking the cap could come after dark or overnight tonight if at all.

Stay tuned....

Storms rumble up north:

Meanwhile big storms are rumbling through more unstable air in northern Minnesota. Storms near Bemidji have been "hailers" today, with several reports of large hail.

DLH: 10 E Fort Ripley [Crow Wing Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 05:29 AM CDT --

Expect storms to continue to fire in northern Minnesota today, and a few may be severe.

Memphis floods approach record levels:

The mighty Mississippi reaching levels not seen since 1937 in Memphis. Records may fall as the river stays near crest for the next few days.

PH

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Instant July: 100 Kansas & Nebraska! 90 in Minnesota Tuesday?

Posted at 5:21 PM on May 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

Get ready for instant July!

Temperatures soared to 100 degrees Monday in Kansas and Nebraska as a hot dry air mass surged north.

Thermometers pushed into the 90s as close as Yankton, SD and northwest Iowa.

Heat surges north Monday.

The heat wave is part of a major shift in the upper air pattern over North America. Low pressure in the West and a developing ridge in the central U.S. are combining to pump warm air north.

Expect the warm front to lift north through Minnesota Tuesday. As it does the combination of warmer air and sunshine could be enough to push temperatures well into the 80s, with some locations pushing 90+ in southern Minnesota Tuesday.

Humid too!

We'll feel some humidity Tuesday with dew points rising into the 60s.

Clash of the air masses: Omaha "Dry line?"

The low level moisture distribution is really interesting and somewhat unusual today in the Midwest.

Extremely dry desert air (with dew points below zero!) has surged northeast from Colorado and the southwest deserts into Kansas and Nebraska. Dew points in the 20s have pushed all the way north into Nebraska.

Meanwhile a humid Gulf of Mexico air mass is being sucked north through Iowa into South Dakota. Dew points are in the 60s, and it feels humid.

The stark contrast in these air masses is making for some interesting features on the surface weather map. The clash point is called a "dry line." Dry lines are common in West Texas and Oklahoma, and they can be the focus for thunderstorm development.

Dry can lines act as cold fronts because the drier air is actually denser than moist air. When the dry line pushes into the more humid air it creates lift as the dense air lifts the lighter moist air above it.

Dew point overlay on visible satellite image. Desert dry air pushes northeast into more humid air mass.

We'll have to watch to see if T-Storms can develop near the dry line in northwest Iowa tonight.

Best storm chances?

If storms do not develop in Iowa and move in tonight, it appears the best storm chances for Minnesota could come late Tuesday night and again late Wednesday night.

Updated SPC risk area Tuesday.

The atmosphere may just be too warm aloft Tuesday for storms to pop. Meteorologists call this "capping" as the atmosphere is capped aloft and storm development is prevented.

Bottom line...it should feel like July Tuesday. Look for temps in the 80s and maybe some 90s in southern Minnesota. Dew points in the 60s will make it feel like summer! The best chance for storms may come late Tuesday night.

How La Nina saved the West:

You may recall my visit to Lake Mead last fall and my post about the near record low and emergency water levels on Lake Mead.

It looks like La Nina saved the day for Vegas, and ">for much of the west that depends on runoff from high mountain snows feeding Colorado River water supplies.

Much of the Mountain West recorded record snows this past winter. A whopping 711 inches (59 feet!) fell on Snowbird, Utah. The Sierra in California piled up a record 61 feet of snow this past winter.

Governor Jerry Brown declared an end to California's drought this spring as reservoirs surge with snowmelt.

Near Las Vegas, Lake Mead is recovering. Runoff from heavy snows in Colorado will allow 3.3 million acre feet of additional water to be released form Lake Powell downstream to Lake Mead. That's 14 times the amount of water the Las Vegas Valley used last year.

Lake Mead In October. Note the bleached rocks showing high water of the past, and how far the lake has dropped exposing the Hoover Dam intake straws.

The increased flow is expected to raise the level of Lake Mead by around 20 feet by September. It may not end the potential for long term water crisis for Lake Mead, but it's a great step in the right direction.

Hoover Dam spillway and hydroelectric power plant below the Dam. The new bridge arches gracefully over the canyon.

PH

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Thundery awakening; Instant summer Tuesday...First 80s?

Posted at 9:10 AM on May 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

Nature's alarm clock rang early and often today as thunder rolled through Minnesota.

A cluster of thunderstorms developed in South Dakota last night and pushed steadily east through Minnesota overnight. The result was heavy rain, hail, gusty winds and a lot of lighting.

Arc of storms rolls through this morning. Note the (non-severe) "bow echo" on the front of the line. Black dots indicate numerous lightning strikes.

There were no reports of actual severe weather early this morning, but numerous reports of hail. (Remember "severe hail" = 1" diameter.)

MPX: Eden Prairie [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 06:05 AM CDT --

MPX: 2 W Prior Lake [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 05:48 AM CDT --

The storms dupmed some significant rainfall this morning.

.63" Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven

.42" MSP Airport

.44" Eden Prairie

.96" Lakeville

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows widespread .30" to .60" rainfall with isolated 1" to 2" pockets overnight between Willmar & Glenwood.

Anatomy of an MCS:

The cluster of storms that rolled through this morning was what we call and MCS, or "mesoscale convective system." These storm super clusters operate on a much bigger scale than "regular" individual T-Storms, travel hundreds of miles, and can persist for several hours or even days in some cases.

1km visible satellite image of morning storm cluster over Minnesota. Note the bumpy clouds (tall thunderheads) on the system's leading edge.

Though this system was largely "non-severe" in Minnesota, MCS are often responsible for widespread severe weather. Many big Minnesota "blowdown type" storms are the result of MCS.

Shelf clouds visible?

It's sometimes tough to pinpoint cloud types from photos, but check out this great shot by Griff Wigley from Northfiled as the storms rolled in this morning.

It is probably a shelf cloud...a common feature at the front end of MCS.

Griff Wigley captures a likely "shelf cloud" with some illumination rolling thorugh Northfiled this morning.

Free Fertillzer!

If you notice your grass greening up it may be because this mornings storms provded some free fertilizer. The intense energy released by lightning causes "nitrogen fixation" and oxygen to fuse and produce nitrates, which falls as fertilizer.

Lightning also produces atmospheric ozone.

Quieter day ahead:

The atmosphere should stabilize the rest of Monday as warm air pushes north. We may see the sun peek out this afternoon from west to east.

Instant Summer Tuesday?

The storms you heard this morning are the sound of summer surging north.

A warm front will sail through Tuesday. As it does, and if we get enough sun temperatures should push into the 80s Tuesday afternoon.

One technique for estimating high temperatures is to use forecast temperatures about a mile up. This so called "850mb" temp technique suggest we could be as warm as upper 80s to near 90 degrees late Tuesday if everything went just perfectly. More likely we will top out somewhere in the low to mid 80s in much of southern Minnesota.

Warmest in 7 months?

The last time we were this warm was early October of last year. We hit 87 degrees on October 10th. It's been a long time!

Humid too!

The warmth and some humidity will make it feel like instant July. Dew points could soar into the upper 60s to near Tuesday!

Slight severe risk?

With summer-like heat and humidity levels we could trigger a few storms late Tuesday. SPC has a slight risk out for parts on Minnesota.

Get ready for instant summer!

PH

Images of spring; Showers move in

Posted at 5:45 PM on May 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

Okay, here's a little gratuitous spring eye candy.

Snapped a few pics of green things today.

Weather Lab ferns ready to unfurl.

Daffodil time

Hostas gain strength

Garden ready for warmer days

Bosco the Weather Cat stalks his prey in green grass. (He chased, but did not catch, a dragon fly!)

It sure is nice to see the greening landscape after the long winter of our discontent and snow piles lasted into April.

Next system arrives:

At least our weather winning streak is at 2!

Plenty of sunshine the past two days was good tonic for all of us. The next weather system is moving in with showers and a few embedded T-Storms overnight and into Thursday.

Initial band of showers rolls east Wednesday evening.

The heaviest bands of rain should move through overnight, and some rain may linger Thursday morning...with just a passing spotty shower or two possible Thursday PM.

Latest models trending between .25" and .50" rainfall.

There are a few embedded T-storms within the overall line as the frontal system moves through tonight, but severe weather is unlikely.

Still, you may see a flash of lighting or hear a clap of thunder and some brief downpours overnight.

Skies should clear by Thursday evening to return us to fabulous sunshine and highs in the upper 60s Friday!

Enjoy!

PH

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Blustery April forecast; Ice out update; major warm up?

Posted at 9:17 AM on April 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Ice out, Springtime, Winter/spring 2011

Two steps forward, one step back.

That chilly breeze you feel today is our latest reminder that the Spring of 2011 is taking its sweet time to show up. It may feel more like March out there for the next 48 hours in Minnesota at times.

A slow moving low pressure system will track through Missouri & Illinois over the next 48 hours.

The system will impact Minnesota weather with windy, cool wet weather and some snow...but not the heavy metro "snowmageddon" advertised by some weather models over the past week.

Thursday: Expect a chilly northeast wind from 15 to 25 mph today. Showery weather in southern Minensota, dry air from the metro north with a mix of sun & clouds.

Radar image and dew point contours overlay shows "desert dry" air north.

Friday: Showers increase from west to east. Dry air near the metro may hold rain at bay much of the day. Rain showers change to wet snow overnight.

Best chances for accumulating snow in the eastern Dakotas to Duluth where several inches may fall. Maybe a slushy inch in the metro by Saturday morning.

Potential accumulating snow near Duluth.

Major winter storm in eastern Dakotas?

Saturday & Sunday: Saturday will start blustery and cold, but the weather will improve as the weekend wears on.

Look for a return to sunshine Saturday, and brisk NW winds will ease by late afternoon. After morning temps in the 30s (and wind chills in the 20s) highs should struggle to reach 50 by around 4pm.

Sunday should feature a sun-cloud mix with lighter winds and temps in the lowers 50s by afternoon.

Searching for spring: Major warm up in sight?

Okay this is going way out on a limb...but with everybody searching for spring I thought I'd pass along this ray of hope for much warmer weather.

The GFS (yes... the model we don't trust lately that has been overpredicting snowstorms) is hinting at a possible major warm up in about two weeks.

The GFS seems to be better at identifying high amplitude temperature trends than handling potential low pressure systems.

The GFS paints a big, (high amplitude) high pressure ridge over the central USA sometime around April 29th-30th. If that verifies, we could see a big warm up...maybe our first real taste of late spring or early summer like temps in Minnesota. The pattern suggests 70s, and maybe even the first 80 degree readings of 2011 for the metro.

GFS: Major upper air ridge & warm up April 29th?

It may be weather fantasy at this point...but it's all we've got and I'll take it! I'll keep an eye on a potential warm up in the next week or so.

Stay tuned....

Ice out reaches the metro:

Southern Minnesota lakes have been ice free for about a week now, and the thaw is moving north by the day.

-Albert Lea Lake ice out was Friday April 8th
-St. Olaf Lake ice out Sunday April 10th

Some metro lakes are now ice free, pretty much on schedule.

-Lake Calhoun ice out occurred Sunday April 10th
-White Bear Lake ice out occurred Wednesday April 13th
-Lake Minnetonka still had partial ice cover as of Wednesday

Open water on Excelsior Bay Monday evening with ice in the distance looking north.

Here's the latest, updated list of ice out for Minnesota from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

What defines "ice out?

"Ice out" is defined in different ways according to the Freshwater Society in Navarre.

Here's how they define ice out on Lake Minnetonka.

"On Lake Minnetonka, the ice is designated as "out" when it is possible to travel by small boat from any one shore to another shore through any passage on the lake. Ice-out dates have been determined using this method since 1968. Previous methods include: when the ice was 50% gone, when a boat could circle Big Island, when a boat could travel between Wayzata and Excelsior, when a car fell through the ice and by visual
observations from a number of lake locations."

Today, April 14th is the median (average) ice out date for Lake Minnetonka. Oddly enough, the ice has never gone out on the lake on April 15th. Last year the ice was out on Tonka April 2nd.

Tonka ice out facts. (Click to enlarge)

Ice melts from the bottom!

I was surprised to learn several years back that ice actually melts form the bottom up!

Here's a great description from the MN Climate Working Group.

How Lake Ice Melts

"Ed Swain, of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency describes the process of freezing and thawing lakes.

The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!"

PH

Instant April: 50 degrees! Records fall, more 40s ahead.

Posted at 7:45 AM on February 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

Spring fever hit Minnesota hard Sunday.

Call it Minnesota's Chinook. Temperatures surged to nearly 50 degrees under a brisk but unseasonably mild westerly Sunday. The thermometer at MSP Airport topped out at a balmy 48 degrees Sunday; just 3 degrees shy of a record. Sunday was the warmest day in over 3 months. The last time it was this warm in the metro was on November 11th when we hit 52 degrees.

Hyperactive bank thermometer in Excelsior flashes 53 degrees Sunday. Photos by Paul Huttner. (Click to enlarge)

The warmth was not confined to southern Minnesota, as temperatures surged statewide. The sudden February thaw smashed several high temperature records in northern Minnesota Sunday. Check out some of the readings from Duluth NWS.

"Thanks to a low pressure system centered in Canada, warm air was quickly ushered into the Northland today.

High temperatures today ranged from 45 to 50 degrees for many locations across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Relatively cooler readings, around 40, were found along the north shore of Lake Superior. International Falls reported a high temperature of 46 degrees which breaks their old record set it 1983. The Duluth Airport had a high of 45 degrees, which was just 2 degrees shy of the record of 47 degrees for this date."


Here are a few high temperatures Sunday:

Aitkin................50 F
Big Fork...........50 F
Hibbing.............49 F
Grand Rapids....48 F
Ely....................43 F
Duluth Harbor...46 F
Brainerd............49 F
Moose Lake......46 F
Ashland.............46 F
Hayward...........47 F
Phillips...............46 F

Minnesota "Chinook" overwhelms snow cover:

You may wonder how it got so warm Sunday with a foot of snow on the ground in much of Minnesota. The short answer is wind. Strong winds in the lowest mile of the atmosphere "mixed down" warmer air from several thousand feet aloft. This rapidly moving low level jet crossed the Rockies, then sank and compressed over Minnesota causing "compression warming." (Graphic courtesy Twin Cities NWS)

Since the air didn't have much time to remain in contact with and be "modified" by the snow cover on the ground, it stayed warm, and records fell. It is remarkable that the air parcels flying into Minnesota Sunday moved over 1,200 miles in just 24 hours!

RTPMPX
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

VALUES REPRESENT LOWS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...
HIGHS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS

.BR MSP 0213 C DH18/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
: ASOS AIRPORTS - WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI
: WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/SNOW DEPTH REPORTS
:
: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 46 / 18 / M / M/ M
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 48 / 29 / 0.00/ 0/ 11
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 47 / 22 / 0.00/ 0/ 15
:
: ASOS AIRPORTS - WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN
: WITHOUT PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/SNOW DEPTH REPORTS
:
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 46 / 27 /
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 47 / 23 /
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 45 / 28 /
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 46 / 33 /
STP : ST PAUL MN : 47 / 19 /

The gusty winds Sunday were widespread.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 AM CST MON FEB 14 2011

...MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OBSERVED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING SUNDAY FEBRUARY 13TH INTO
MONDAY FEBRUARY 14TH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WERE FAVORABLE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS.
NOTE THAT THESE ARE THE MAXIMUM OF OBSERVED WIND DIRECTIONS FROM
AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS AND HIGHER MAGNITUDES MAY
HAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS.

LOCATION PEAK GUST TIME OF PEAK GUST
------------------------------------------------------------
CANBY 54 MPH 6 PM
MADISON 51 MPH 6 PM
ALEXANDRIA 49 MPH 11 PM
NEW ULM 48 MPH 3 AM
FAIRMONT 47 MPH 3 AM
ST JAMES 47 MPH 9 PM
WASECA 47 MPH 11 PM
GLENWOOD 46 MPH 11 PM
WILLMAR 46 MPH 12 AM
MORRIS 45 MPH 11 PM
OWATONNA 45 MPH 1 AM
PAYNESVILLE 45 MPH 9 PM
REDWOOD FALLS 45 MPH 12 AM
APPLETON 44 MPH 10 PM
MANKATO 43 MPH 11 PM
OLIVIA 43 MPH 3 AM
FARIBAULT 41 MPH 11 PM
GRANITE FALLS 41 MPH 1 AM
LONG PRAIRIE 41 MPH 11 PM
ST CLOUD 41 MPH 12 AM
GLENCOE 40 MPH 11 PM
HUTCHINSON 40 MPH 9 PM
LAKEVILLE 40 MPH 9 PM
ST PAUL 40 MPH 10 PM
BENSON 39 MPH 8 PM
CRYSTAL 39 MPH 9 PM
EDEN PRAIRIE 39 MPH 9 PM
LITCHFIELD 39 MPH 9 PM
LITTLE FALLS 39 MPH 9 PM
MAPLE LAKE 39 MPH 9 PM
MINNEAPOLIS 39 MPH 9 PM
SAUK CENTRE 39 MPH 12 AM
BUFFALO 38 MPH 9 PM
MONTEVIDEO 38 MPH 12 AM

The mega thaw sent Minnesotans out in droves to enjoy the milder temps.


Folks enjoying ice on the pond under sunny skies in Excelsior.

Snow free drive under scenic bridge in Chaska.

Scenic landscape and ski trail at Carver Park Reserve in Victoria.

Milder air is poised to spill back into Minnesota this week. More 40s (and no sub-zero temps) are on the way in the coming days.

PH

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Spring Fever: First 40s of 2011 ahead

Posted at 4:44 PM on February 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

You could feel it in the air Friday afternoon.

Temperatures rose over 30 degrees and surged above freezing after a sub-zero start Friday. There is slush in the streets, water on the sidewalks and a run on windshield washer fluid at your local hardware store. You can almost taste spring in the air.

Get used to it. It looks like a major outbreak of spring fever is busting out all over Minnesota.

Why is it happening?

Predominant northwest upper air flow this winter.

Winter (really) began in Minnesota on November 13th. That's when our upper air flow turned into the northwest, and began dealing shots of cold air and a barrage of snowstorms that would choke streets with snow and collapse the Metrodome. For 3 solid months winter has been relentless. Until today.

Our mean upper air flow has finally shifted into the west, brining a surge of Pacific air into the Upper Midwest. The change in air masses today was dramatic, with temperatures rising over 40 degrees in much of the region.

Upper air flow shifts into the west, bringing milder pacific air masses.

First 40s of 2011 likely:

The milder air will bring daytime high temperatures as much as 40 degrees warmer than earlier this week. 30s should spread statewide and southern (and maybe all of) Minnesota will have a shot at 40 in the coming days.

Models hinting at 40s as early as Sunday. (click to enlarge)

The best chances for a 40 degree temp surge appear to be Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Even overnight lows may be near or above freezing next week!

Fog Factor?

When snow melts it releases additional moisture into the low levels of the atmosphere. That sets the stage for fog. On clear nights it may form as radiation fog. When the warm breezes blow over the cold snow pack, it may be advection fog.

Either way, there is a good shot at some relatively thick fog blankets in the next week, especially late at night and early in the morning.

If the fog burns off early in the morning, we'll see temperatures surge in the mild air mass in the afternoon sun, and 40s are possible. If the fog hangs tough into afternoon, temperatures may be held into the 40s. It will be a day-to-day nowcasting situation, but expect the possibility of some fog advisories in the next week.

Slop storm late next week?

The GFS model is tracking a low pressure system through Iowa by next Thursday/Friday. Right now it looks warm enough for the system to begin as rain in southern Minnesota and the metro, but maybe snow in central and northern MN. There may be a transition to all snow Friday, but it's way too early to tell.

The medium range forecast models are not nearly good enough temporality or spatially to pinpoint rain/snow areas a week out, and sometimes even 24 hours out! The state of the science of meteorology only allows us to say there might be rain and or snow in a week...and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you a bill of goods.

The medium range models are much better with big temperature trends...like the well advertised and forecast thaw now underway.

It looks like the extended thaw and rain potential next week means our excellent outdoor ice (and our Friday night hockey games) will take a hit. I'll miss the outdoor ice...but I am ready for a warm up after our "real Minnesota winter of 2010-'11."

Enjoy the thaw, and stock up on washer fluid!

PH

June Thunder

Posted at 4:17 AM on June 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Springtime, Thunderstorms

Happy meteorological summer!

June 1st marks the start of meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere. The months of June, July & August are the three warmest months of the year in Minnesota, meteorologically speaking. Astronomical summer begins June 21st at 6:28 am CDT.

A cool front is crossing Minnesota today. As the front slides through, the atmosphere is unstable enough to trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. A few of these may reach severe limits. (wind gusts of 59 mph and/or hail 1" in diameter or greater)

Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe storms into southern Minnesota Tuesday.

With any strong to severe storms that do manage to form, the primary threat will be high winds and hail today. Still, you can never totally rule out an isolated tornado, or gustnado with severe rotating thunderstorms.

There could be scattered storms at any time today but the best chance for severe storms appears to be in a window between 2pm and 9pm. Keep an eye to the sky and have your weather radio handy today.

Warm & dry spring 2010:

May's final sunset on Lake Minnetonka Monday evening.

With temperatures running 1.4 degrees above average in the metro, May closes one of the warmest and driest springs on record in Minnesota.

Here are some numbers for the Twin Cities:

Temperature

March: +8.9 degrees
April: +8.3 degrees
May: +1.4 degrees

Spring 2010: +6.2 degrees!

The Twin Cities recorded 5.51" of rainfall this meteorological spring. That's 1.9" below average.

June: Warm and (usually) wet

June is typically our wettest and 3rd warmest month of the year in Minnesota.

Temperatures and humidity usually climb noticeably in June as summer kicks into high gear by mid month. In the Twin Cities the average high climbs from 75 today, to 82 by month's end. Average lows warm from 54 to 61.

With ample thunderstorms and tropical downpours at times, average rainfall in June is 4.34".

We may get our first shot of June rain today. Most areas, including the Huttner Weather Lab lawn and newly planted vegetable garden can use the rainfall!

PH

Free air conditioning

Posted at 4:29 PM on May 25, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

You'll be able to give your air conditioner a much needed rest this week.

Scattered showers and T-Storms will linger into early Wednesday as a slow moving cool front takes its time to push east of Minnesota. The showers will be widely scattered, and will favor areas in Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. There could be a few scattered showers and T-Storms in the metro overnight.

-Twin Cities radar loop

SPC paints much of Wisconsin with a slight risk for severe storms.

The front is the leading edge of much drier Canadian air mass. The drier air mass is a welcome change for many Minnesotans after a few days of dew points near 70 and temps pushing into the upper 80s and 90s. The fresh infusion of Canadian air will make for sunny warm days and cooler comfortable nights. Good sleeping weather as they used to say back in the day.

Dew point analysis shows much drier air pushing into the Upper Midwest.

The direr air mass will plunge dew points into he 40s for much of the region by Thursday and Friday.

Forecast modles show dew points plunging as drier Canadian air pushes in.

Enjoy the change in air masses, and the free air conditioning!

PH

Lake Superior "lake breeze" visible from space

Posted at 5:00 PM on May 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Lake Superior, Springtime

Great pictures Thursday from space showing a classic lake breeze near Lake Superior.

Look at the photos below. You can see the areas over western Lake Superior and the surrounding land areas are largely cloud free, except for an area of fog on the lake near Grand Marais.

Looking inland you can see a distinct line of clouds. These are cumulus clouds forming along the lake breeze front. Images are courtesy of the University of Wisconsin Madison MODIS page.

1000 meter resolution MODIS view of Lake Superior Thursday shows cloud free areas near the west end of the lake.
(click on photos for bigger images)

Higher resolution (250 meter) MODIS view. Note the distinct line of cumulus inland paralleling the North Shore.

Arrows on the right show cool dry stable wind flow coming off Lake Superior.
Cumulus cannot develop in this stable air mass. These are the cloud free zones. Arrows from the left show wind flow from the other side. A "convergence zone" is created where the two air flows meet. This is the lake breeze front. Since the air has nowhere to go but up, cumulus clouds form as the air rises.

Lake breezes are caused by temperature differences over land and water. In this case, cool air over Lake Superior is dense and pushes inland during the day as the land heats up.

Thursday's surface map shows the wind direction and temperature differences. Notice how stations near Lake Superior are in the 60s while areas inland are in the lower 80s, nearly 20 degrees warmer!

In Chicago we always forecast "cooler by the lake" on spring and summer days like today. Thursday you could feel it in the air and see the effects from space near Lake Superior.

PH

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Images of spring

Posted at 8:21 AM on May 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

It's been a remarkable spring in the Upper Midwest this year. Record mild spring weather has pushed phenology two to three weeks ahead of schedule.

As I am prone to do, I have been capturing photos around the weather lab on occasion these past few glorious days. Our amazing weather is so good it deserves top honors on the blog today. After specualting on hurricanes and oil slicks and documenting NOAA's report on the hottest year on record so far, it's time for a little "fluff" piece on our remarkable spring.

I hope you'll forgive my dalliance as I share a few images of this most amazing Minnesota springtime. Photos captured around the Lake Minnetonka area.

Enjoy!

PH

Lilac basks under a pristine blue spring sky at the Huttner Weather Lab (Photos by Paul Huttner) click for larger images

Fair weather cumulus glide across the sky on breezy fishing opener Friday on Carsons Bay on Lake Minnetonka.

Minnehaha Falls on Mother's Day.

Minnehaha Falls: The view from the top.

Huttner Weather Lab annual garden takes root.

Sunset looking west toward Gale and Big Islands on Lake Minnetonka

Cirrus decorated sunset on Carsons Bay. Note the crescent moon and Venus top of image.

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Goldilocks weekend

Posted at 2:30 PM on May 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

This could be the best weather of the year in Minnesota.

Call it the perfect weekend. Bright sunshine. Mild breezes. Highs in the 70s and lows around 50. No bugs yet. It just doesn't get any better than this. It's a Goldilocks weekend. Not too hot, not too cold. Just right.

Oh, and did I mention it's the fishing opener to boot? Talk about timing.

Saturday wind forecast shows a light southerly wind. Maybe just enough for a small walleye chop?

Our parade of chilly wet low pressure systems is history for now. One more low may clip the Upper Midwest on Monday with a chance of showers, but it looks like the weekend will go off without a hitch.

In fact, our outbreak of spring fever may reach epidemic proportions in the next 7 days.

Forecast modles cranking out a string of 70+ degree days for the metro.

My read of the upper air pattern is that we've made a significant shift back into a generally warm and mostly dry weather pattern much of the nation enjoyed in April. April was one of the warmest on record for many locations in the eastern half of the USA this year.

Here's a rundown of high temperatures this weekend.

Enjoy!

PH

Forecast: May mosquito boom

Posted at 5:00 PM on May 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

You knew they would get here sooner or later. This year, it looks like you'd better brush up on your mosquito swatting move sooner.

This spring's weather pattern is setting up just right for an early onslaught of what some not so lovingly call our Minnesota state bird, the mosquito.

Several factors have lined up to create what could be an early boom in mosquito numbers this year.

-Unseasonably warm weather in March and April

-A wet start to May has led to ample rainfall and plenty of standing water.

-A pattern change to much warmer weather in the next two weeks will likely lead to a large and early mosquito hatch.

Usually we can get through the Memorial Day holiday with limited numbers of mosquitoes in these parts. The real boom in mosquito numbers usually comes in early June and lasts about a month until numbers begin to fall in mid to late summer.

This year everything from ice out to lilac blooms are occurring 2 to 3 weeks earlier than average. With the weather patterns the way they are, it's a good bet to assume we'll see a healthy crop of mosquitoes in late May this year, as opposed to early June.

The Twin Cities Metropolitan Mosquito Control District has a cool interactive tracker with records of larva activity and treatments for your neighborhood. You can keep track of breeding sites and how they are being treated.

Metropolitan Mosquito Control District map shows breeding areas
(orange outlines) in the Minnetonka area.

It pays to use bug spray these days with so many mosquito borne illness.

I hope you'll really enjoy the "bug free" warm up over the next week to 10 days. It won't be long until our least favorite summer visitor fills the sky on summery evenings.

PH

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Sunnier forecast

Posted at 8:30 AM on May 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

Your lawn or farm field may be happy we banked some decent rain in about a week. It's about to get a whole lot sunnier around here.

A fast moving jet stream has sent a series of low pressure systems swirling through the Upper Midwest this month. In the Twin Cities, 10 of the past 11 days have featured at least a trace of rain. Rainfall is running above average this month in many southern Minnesota locations.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: TWIN CITIES MN
MONTH: MAY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 44 52 N
LONGITUDE: 93 13 W

DY MAX MIN WTR

1 64 49 0.00
2 64 48 0.00
3 57 46 0.05
4 79 41 T
5 55 47 T
6 54 41 0.04
7 48 34 0.55
8 52 34 T
9 58 32 0.00
10 58 44 0.19
11 46 41 0.47
12 51 42 0.04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

STATION: TWIN CITIES MN
MONTH: MAY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 44 52 N
LONGITUDE: 93 13 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 49.4 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.34
DPTR FM NORMAL: -6.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.24
HIGHEST: 79 ON 4 GRTST 24HR 0.66 ON 10-11
LOWEST: 32 ON 9

Last night's rain and thunder favored the west metro. Here are some local rainfall reports.

MSP Aiprort .25"
Stillwater .32"
Chanhassen .44"
Forest Lake .49"
Long Lake .49"
Crystal .53"
Buffalo .56"

Twin Cities NWS storm total rainfall estimates.

Arrowhead drought hangs tough:

Today's latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows severe drought hanging tough in northeast Minnesota and much of northern Wisconsin. Wetter weather is keeping the drought from expanding in areas south and west.

I have observed wet soils and high pond and lake levels near the weather lab in the west metro. There is standing water in many areas around the west metro in ditches and low spots that have been dry for the past few springs.

Drier and warmer pattern ahead:

As the jet stream shifts north into southern Canada over the next 10 days, drier and much warmer weather will take hold over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should push 70 by the weekend, and it appears 70s and even 80s are ahead in the coming 10 days.

This should help boost crop development in Minnesota to levels well ahead of average by late May.

Enjoy the warm up as spring and summer like temperatures move in over the next few days.

PH

Rainfall tops 1" in some areas

Posted at 4:52 PM on May 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

Now that's what we call a long slow soaker in the weather biz.

A slow sprawling low pressure system has dropped widespread rainfall to Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. The rainfall totals are impressive in most areas.

My tallies from NWS data through 4pm Tuesday

-Twin Cities Airport .66"
-Eden Prairie .67"
-St. Paul .66"
-Alexandria 1.11"
-St. Cloud 1.21"
-Redwood Falls 1.39"
-Litchfield 1.8"

From Duluth NWS Tuesday morning:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
854 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1102 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 S DANBURY 45.89N 92.37W
05/11/2010 M0.95 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
05/11/2010 M0.83 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 AM HEAVY RAIN FORT RIPLEY 46.17N 94.36W
05/11/2010 M1.40 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BRAINERD 46.30N 94.27W
05/11/2010 M1.28 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE NISSWA 46.53N 94.25W
05/11/2010 M0.82 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N BRAINERD 46.40N 94.19W
05/11/2010 M1.05 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Look for a brief lull in the rain overnight into early Tuesday. The next weather system will move rapidly back into the region by Tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall totals look generally lighter with the next wave Wednesday into early Thursday. Forecast models are hinting at between .25" and .50" for much of the southern half of Minnesota.

Warming trend this weekend:

Look for a warming trend starting on Friday and lasting into next week. Temperatures should reach 70 by the weekend, and we have a shot at 80 next week. This could be the best fishing opener weekend weather in years. Highs near 70 and lows in the 40s and 50s and mild winds could make for nearly ideal opening weekend weather.

Leave the umbrellas at home and bring the sunscreen!

PH

Another soaker rolls in

Posted at 1:18 PM on May 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

Twin Cities NWS weather story highlights soaking rainfall.

Get ready for a wet week.

The first of two strong rainmakers is moving into Minnesota. Widespread soaking rains will fall through much of Tuesday. The first system is spinning toward Minnesota from Colorado Monday. The second system is right on its heels, slamming into the Pacific Coast near Oregon.

Rainfall amounts appear to be significant with both systems this week. The first should bring .50" to 1"+ for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. There may even be some higher totals with this efficient rainmkaer. This is excellent news for drought plagued northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

The second system will bring additional rainfall Thursday. It may be cold enough to mix in a few snowflakes in areas north and east of the metro.

NOAA 5-day rainfall forecast shows heavy rain potential form multiple weather systems in the central USA.

Warmer weather on the horizon:

After a cool chilly week this week, it appears we will warm dramatically next week. Look for highs approaching 70 late this weekend, and pushing 80 next week.

Hang in there!

-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

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Tales of spring, rain, and yes...snow.

Posted at 8:50 AM on May 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Snow, Springtime

Okay let's start with the good news.

I found a few signs of our wonderful spring around the weather lab this morning. Here are the pictures.

Chinese lilacs bursting at the weather lab this morning.
(Photos by Paul Huttner)

Ducks in the lawn waiting for female duck in the bushes. You fill in the blanks.

Lilacs against a deep blue morning sky.

Rumors of rain:

After a few scattered showers today, a more significant weather system will plow into the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. Look for rain to spread from west to east Thursday, and arrive in the metro by late Thursday afternoon or evening.

NOAA rainfall forecast hints at a swath of .50" to 1" liquid.

The good news is that much of Minnesota will see a much needed good soaking Friday.

Snow in May?

It looks like the system will drag enough cold air along to produce some snow on the back side Friday into Friday night. Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin could see accumulating wet snow late Friday into Friday night.

NAM model 84 hour snowfall paints accumulating snow in northern Minnesota.

There may even be a few wet snowflakes in the Twin Cities Friday night.

Nicer for Mom:

Look for improving weather conditions as we head into the weekend. High pressure will mean more sun, and less wind. Temps should top out around 60 degrees by Sunday for mom.

Mother's Day looks sunny and quiet with highs near 60 degrees.

PH

Cold front: Temps plunge...May snowfall?

Posted at 5:01 PM on May 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Springtime

Only in Minnesota.

Temperatures hit 80 degrees in southern Minnesota Tuesday for the first time since April 1st and only the second time this year. I hope you enjoyed your 15 minutes of weather bliss.

Temperatures push 80 degrees in southern Minnesota Tuesday. Note the colder air in the Dakotas pushing in from the west.

A powerful cold front is spawning storms into Wisconsin as blustery west winds drop temperatures 20 degrees in just a few hours. The front is part of a larger weather system and pattern change that will send waves of chilly air and rain our way over the next 72 hours. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid 40s in southern Minnesota and 30s in the north Wednesday morning. That's a 35+ degree temp drop for many Minnesota locations in 12 hours!

It appears the threat for severe weather will stay east of the metro Tuesday evening. But a few storms parts of Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota and eastern Iowa.

Soaking rain by Friday?

Signs continue to point to a soaking rainfall Thursday night and Friday for much of Minnesota. This would be good news for the drought plagued north, and for many other areas that could use the moisture.

May snow up north?

There is some indication that the air could be cold enough in the lowest 5,000 feet to produce wet snow in the northern half of Minnesota Friday. We'll have to keep an eye on the possibility of accumulating wet snow up north. After the first snowless March on record for many Minnesota locations, it figures we'd see a chance of snow in May.

NAM 84 hour snowfall forecast hints at accumulating snow north of the metro Friday.

Only in Minnesota.

PH

Gulf oil slick edges toward shore

Posted at 9:37 AM on May 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Gulf oil spill, Springtime

NOAA satellite image shows the oil spill on April 30th. Note the Mississippi Delta on the left.

It was a stiff wind along the Gulf Coast last weekend. Steady southeast to south winds gusting over 30 mph pushed the oil slick toward Louisiana over the weekend. 10 foot waves slammed the coast, making it difficult if not impossible to contain the spill, and moving it ever so slowly toward the coast.

The forecast is a good news/bad news scenario, depending on where you live on the coast. Lighter winds and smoother seas will allow crews to resume containment and mitigation efforts. A shift in wind direction to more westerly will tend to push the growing oil slick eastward toward Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Twin Cities: Roller coaster temperature week.

The thermometer will be like the stock market this week. Lots of ups and downs.

Tuesday looks like the warmest day this week.

We start on the cooler side with 50s and 60s in Minnesota Monday. Tuesday will bring warm southerly breezes, and temps will push into the 70s in the southern half of the state. A cool front will blow through again mid-week, returning us to the cooler 50s by late week.

Look for chance for rain late Tuesday as the front slams through.

PH

Amazing Spring 2010: Lilacs 3 weeks early

Posted at 3:04 PM on April 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Springtime

Lilac buds ready to open on a cool April morning at the Huttner Weather Lab.

Our amazing spring of 2010 continues. Last Friday I was stunned to see a row of common purple lilacs blooming in Deephaven. That's April 23rd!

According to long time Twin Cities phenologist Jim Gilbert's Nature Notes; this would put 2010 as one of the earliest lilac bloom years on record. The average date for the lilacs to open in the Twin Cities is around May 10th, with peak bloom the following week.

Jim's records from the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen show the early Flowering Crabapple peak bloom we're seeing now rivals the years of 1987 and 1997 when the trees also reached peak bloom in late April. Jim has observed the lilac bloom average dates have moved a full two weeks earlier in the past 40 years.

The triggers for our early spring blooms are the 4th warmest March and 2nd warmest April on record so far. This is pretty remarkable stuff when you consider that last year's lilac blooms occurred in May close to the average date.

PH

Mississippi Tornado a Monster

Posted at 9:00 AM on April 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Springtime

Monster Gulf Coast Tornado Outbreak:

NWS in Jackson Mississippi reports today that the same giant parent supercell spawned one incredible long track tornado. The giant EF4 monster packed 170 mph winds and was 1.75 miles wide at the base, with a path length of 97 miles! The tornado killed 10 people in Mississippi alone.

Check out the latest updated NOAA SPC storm reports from Saturday's devastating southern tornado outbreak. At last count, 69 tornadoes were reported. Keep in mind that about one third of these are likely multiple reports of the same tornado. Still the numbers are staggering.

Notice the nearly linear path of the red tornado triangles from northeast Louisiana through Mississippi and Alabama.

Saturday's outbreak makes April by far the most active tornado month so far in 2010 with 89 tornadoes reported so far. It had been a record quiet tornado year so far, with only 78 tornadoes reported during the first 3 months of 2010.

Enjoy our return to quiet weather and sunshine this week. Our next chance of thunderstorms rolls in late Thursday.

PH

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Classic weekend weather

Posted at 3:08 PM on April 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

Get set for a springtime weekend classic.

Canadian high pressure is taking hold over Minnesota this weekend. That means lots of sun, cool mornings and sunny pleasant afternoons.

NOAA surface map loop shows cool quiet high pressure in control of Upper Midwest weather this weekend.

No matter what you're outdoor plans are this weekend, the weather should agree. Here's the rundown.

Saturday: Plenty of sun, a cool start and a milder finish. Highs will be in the mid 60s pretty much statewide with 50s along Lake Superior. Winds will be northwest at between 10 and 15 mph. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s south and 20s north.

Sunday: More sun, less wind and milder. Highs should be in to 60s to near 70. Light winds will make the day feel warmer than Saturday.

Temperatures are still running about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this weekend. The long string of warmer than average weather that began in March is adding up to some records. This is the warmest first half of spring on record for Duluth, and for other areas of the Upper Midwest.

Enjoy!

PH

Odds & ends on a wet Wednesday

Posted at 4:38 PM on April 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

April showers bring May flowers.

MNDOT Traffic Cam shows a wet commute on the I-94 bridge over the St. Croix River heading into Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon.

*Though the rain was not heavy, it was enough to wet streets, windshields and give the Twins grounds crew a run for their money during the first rain showers at Target Field today. It looks like they passed with flying colors as the game went off without a hitch. It only took a few minutes to quickly spruce up the muddy pitcher's mound in mid-game.

*Rainfall totals are generally light today. Stop and start showers have laid down only a few tenths of an inch for the most part.

*Tuesday's rain put the Twin Cities just slightly above average for April so far. We are still running about an inch below average since March 1st.

PRECIPITATION (IN) Average/(Departure from average)
YESTERDAY 0.73
MONTH TO DATE 1.08 0.93 (0.15)
SINCE MAR 1 1.77 2.79 (-1.02)
SINCE JAN 1 2.97 4.62 (-1.65)

*The cool front spawning the showers will stall briefly tonight just southeast of the Twin Cities. That will keep the focus of showers running generally from about Albert Lea and Rochester to Red Wing and the southeast metro over to Menomonie and Rice Lake. A second wave riding along the front may trigger a few more showers in the metro overnight and into early Thursday morning.

*High pressure will build in as we head toward the weekend. Look for a cooler breeze and some gusty winds from late Thursday through Friday.

*The weekend looks spectacular at this point. As high pressure settles in, look for plenty of sunshine and high in the 60s with lows in the 40s in southern Minnesota. Up north highs may hold in the upper 50s with lows in the 30s. It should be a great weekend for getting some of those spring yard chores off the "to do" list.

Enjoy the return to glorious weather as we head toward the weekend!

PH

Mild spring weather setting records

Posted at 5:20 PM on April 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Record, Springtime

Welcome to the earliest spring in Minnesota history.

That's the way it slices if you look at some of the data this spring. As Rod Serling would say in The Twilight Zone; "submitted for your approval."

*The earliest recorded ice out in history for several northern Minnesota lakes

New ice out records for lakes with more than 40 years of record.

Lake-County-New Record-Previous Record-Years of Data
---------------------------------------------------
Bemidji Beltrami 4-6-2010 4-11-1975,00 73
Fall St. Louis 4-2-2010 4-10-1945 60
Itasca Clearwater 4-3-2010 4-9-1981 69
Leech Cass 4-6-2010 4-9-1945 75
Shagawa St. Louis 4-3-2010 4-14-1998 45
Vermilion St. Louis 4-6-2010 4-10-1945 91
Rainy Koochiching 4-10-2010 4-13-1998 80

*The Twin Cities had a snowless March for the first time in the modern record (1891-2010) and only the 3rd time in recorded history.

*The Twin Cities recorded the 4th warmest March on record with an average temperature of 41.0 degrees.

*Duluth is enjoying the warmest start to April ever on record. The monthly average temperature so far is 44.7 degrees. That's 10 degrees above average. Duluth has enjoyed 8 days this month with a daily high temperature at or above 60 degrees. The average high for Duluth today is just 47 degrees.

*The Twin Cities is running 10.5 degrees above average so far in April.

When you add up the consistently mild temperatures, early ice out and record lack of "spring" snowfall you have what may be the earliest and warmest Minnesota spring on record by many measures.

We're half way through meteorological spring (March-May) this week. The weather maps are hinting at above average temperatures for the next 10 days.

It will be interesting to see where this spring ranks as we head toward (an early?) summer in June.

PH

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Much needed rainfall

Posted at 9:21 AM on April 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

Now that's what we call a good soaker.

An active warm front is triggering widespread thunderstorms overnight into today. The garden variety grumblers have put down some impressive and beneficial rainfall totals. Here are some rainfall reports as of early Tuesday morning.

Deephaven .35"
Crystal .42"
St. Paul .46"
MSP Airport .64"
St. Cloud .90"
Eden Prairie 1.34"
Willmar 3.00"
Hutchinson 3.57"

The heaviest band of rainfall set up overnight as the storms developed and lingered in an arc west of the metro. Persistent downpours in a band from near Willmar to Hutchinson to Waconia and Norwood in Carver County in the southwest metro laid down anywhere form 3" to as much as 5" according to NEXRAD storm total rainfall estimates.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall algorithm shows deep soaking rainfall west of the Twin Cities.

Keep in mind the radar may have read these amounts a bit high due to hail cores present in the thunderstorms overnight. Still, a good multi inch soaking fell in these areas.

Wider view shows soaking rain in St. Cloud and near the Twin Cities.

The rainfall is extremely well timed and beneficial. Much of Minnesota has been very dry this spring, and the rain will alleviate fire danger, recharge soils and help boost the spring green up.

As the warm front moves north today, expect showers and thunderstorms to favor the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Showers should gradually end from south to north in the metro today.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Regional radar

Enjoy the much needed rainfall!

PH

Scattered rain and thunder

Posted at 11:05 PM on April 12, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

Look (and listen) for a few scattered areas of much needed rainfall into early Tuesday morning. A line of storms moving slowly northeast is packing lightning, thunder, heavy downpours, gusty winds and some hail.

A warm front is pushing through southern Minnesota overnight and will trigger scattered showers and a few boomers into Tuesday morning. Most areas will see only a quarter to half inch of rain or so, but some lucky spots may see up to an inch or more.

After the front sails through Tuesday, warm southerly breezes will boost temperatures in the afternoon. Upper 70s will be common, and some spots in southern Minnesota could see the season's first 80 degree reading.

I would not be shocked to see temperatures pushing near 80 as far north as the metro by late Tuesday afternoon.

Enjoy!

PH

Twins Forecast: Play Ball!

Posted at 2:50 PM on April 12, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime, Target Field

3pm Update:

As if on cue, two rain areas are splitting north and south of the metro. There's still a slim chance a shower could develop overhead as the front moves through, but the best chance is for the game to go off dry, with even some sunshine filtering through.

Play Ball!

PH

Noon Update:

Showers continue to hang west and south of the metro. Good news so far. We'll have to see how things develop as the front moves through this afternoon. There is still a chance of rain, but it's looking better by the hour.

Outdoor baseball is back in Minnesota!

PH

It's going to be touch and go for rain at Target Field today.

If you are headed out to the game today, be prepared for a little bit of everything.

Here's the breakdown on the forecast today.

-A warm front is pushing moisture north into southern Minnesota. The front is pushing more moisture (dew points in the 40s and 50s) into the region today.

-The system is battling dry air initially over the Twin Cities where dew points are in the 20s. That may mean that some of the rain initially may evaporate before it reaches the ground.

-Various forecast models are bringing the best chance of scattered rain and thunderstorms into the metro between about noon and 4pm. There may also be some lighting and thunder as the system moves through this afternoon.

GFS forecast model paints rain into the metro this afternoon.

As is often the case with springtime weather systems, the showers will be scattered in nature. That means there is a chance Target Field may be able to dodge some of the showers today. It could easily be pouring in Bloomington at the MOA (and old Met Stadium site) and not raining at Target Field, or visa versa! There may even be sunny peeks at times today.

Target field is well designed to handle rainfall, so even if we get a batch of showers and thunder, I think it is likely they will play the game today. The dicey part of the forecast looks to be during the pregame and first part of the game today.

After the front pushes through this afternoon, we may see a clearing trend and breezy and milder weather should move in for this evening. Temps should be in the 60s at gametime. Winds should be from the southeast at 10-20 mph. That's blowing in from the outfield.

Here are some resources to keep track of the changeable weather today!

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest hourly observations
-Latest surface map
-Target Field Cam

PH

Classic spring weekend; Twins opener dodging showers?

Posted at 6:22 PM on April 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime, Target Field

This is how you write up an April weekend in Minnesota.

Plenty of sun, cool mornings and milder afternoons.

Our relatively mild and tranquil April weather continues this weekend. Saturday should feature partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Expect temperatures in the lower 60s in southern Minnesota, and upper 50s to near 60 north. Winds should be from the west at between 5 and 15 mph.

Sunday looks a bit milder in the south with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Northern Minnesota may see a few clouds Sunday. A light NE wind between 5 and 10 mph should make things feel really nice Sunday.

Temperatures will be running about 8 to 10 degrees above average this weekend. Our averages in the Twin Cities are 54/34. We're on a 6 week winning streak of above average temperatures now. March was 8.9 degrees above average in the metro and April temperatures are off to a running start at 11.2 degrees above average!

Front may affect Twins opener:

All attention will turn to Target Field Monday for the Twins home opener. A warm front will be pushing through southern Minnesota Monday morning. It will likely bring a few showers along as it moves through.

If the front clear the Twin Cities by early afternoon, weather conditions should be nice for opening day baseball at Target Field. Look for breezy SE winds of 15-25 mph (blowing in from right field) and temperatures that could be in the upper 60s to near 70 if we get enough sun.

Twin Cities NWS weather depiction hints at showers and possible thunder at 1pm Monday in the metro.

If the front lingers, weather conditions will change significantly. Clouds and showers could linger into the afternoon, and temperatures could stay in the upper 50s right up to game time.

GFS model rainfall forecast for Monday at 7pm hints at a chance of lingering rain showers in the metro Monday afternoon.

Needless to say, forecasters will be watching the models closely Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Enjoy the beautiful April weekend!

PH

Photos on a spring day

Posted at 5:17 PM on April 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

Scilla, or Siberian Squill shimmer near the Huttner Weather Lab.
(Photos by Paul Huttner. click for bigger images)

Okay, I'll admit it. Except for some snow in Green Bay, there's absolutely no weather going on anywhere in the Upper Midwest today.

So instead of being glued bug-eyed to my computer monitor slaving over a hot doppler like I do on severe weather days, that means I get to do the Maytag Weather Repairman thing today.

The good news for me is I get to do one of my favorite parts of this job. Go outside INTO the weather and (at least attempt to) capture the flavor of today's weather product.

So forgive me for going all photo journalist crazy with spring fever today. I hope you'll enjoy the images. Please don't tell my boss I had a great time doing this.

PH

Star Magnolia's spectacular blooms grace the April sky.

Stars and Stripes waves in the breeze under a classic blue springtime Minnesota sky.

Lake Minnetonka beach awaits the coming season.

First green leaves begin to paint the woods with color.

Classic boat house perched above the still frigid blue waters of Lake Minnetonka.

Scilla close up.

Magnolia against a classic blue sky.

Tiger's return: Masters thunder?

Posted at 8:36 AM on April 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

Sure signs of spring.

The first crocus. Ice out. Azaleas in bloom in Amen Corner at The Masters.

I love Masters weekend. It's the final nail in the coffin for the cold season in the Upper Midwest. And this year right after Masters Sunday, we have the Twins home opener at Target Field on Monday? Sheer springtime sports fan heaven.

It looks like the rumbling at Augusta may not be limited to Tiger's return to golf. As a cool front sweeps through Augusta later today, a growling line of (possibly severe) thunderstorms will tag along. Look for late day thunder today at Augusta,before things clear out for what should be a spectacular weather weekend.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center shows slight risk for severe storms this afternoon for The Masters.

Overall the forecast for Augusta this weekend looks grand. After the potential for delays this afternoon, the trademark sunshine and gentle breezes kick in for the weekend. It looks like temperatures will be in the 70s.

Sunday's forecast high temperatures.

I can almost hear the dulcet tones of CBS sportscaster Jim Nance and Irish whispers of David Feherty layered over gratuitous long lazy camera shots of the Georgia pines towering over Rae's Creek Sunday afternoon.

Ahh, spring is in the air at last.

PH

Precious rainfall gives way to sunshine

Posted at 8:24 AM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

It's a start.

Precious rainfall in southern Minnesota added up in southern Minnesota Tuesday. Here are some totals.

Twin Cities Airport .28"
Eden Prairie .38"
St. Paul .37"
Chanhassen .45"
Stillwater .34"
New Ulm 1.6"

The rainfall should help reduce the threat of wildfires for a few days and help boost the spring green up in southern Minnesota.

As expected, the heaviest rains fell in Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Rainfall totals in excess of 1" to 2" drenched areas from Waterloo, Iowa to near Janesville, Wisconsin.

La Crosse NWS rainfall analysis shows heavy rains of 1" to 2" in much of Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

Milder temperatures on the way:

As sunshine returns to the Upper Midwest, temperatures will respond. We'll enjoy a couple of cool (average) spring days today and Thursday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures will rise above average again this weekend with 60s returning by Friday and lasting into the weekend. A surge of warm air will help to boost temperatures back well into the 70s by Monday and Tuesday of next week!

Forecast models show temperatures surging into the 70s by Monday.
(click for bigger image)

After the 4th warmest March on record for the Twin Cities (+8.9 degrees!), April is off to another gangbusters warm start. The Twin Cities is running 14.2 degrees above average for the first 6 days of April. It looks like the warm trend will continue right into next week.

NOAA CPC 10 day outlook calls for above average temps in the Upper Midwest and eastern U.S.

With record early ice out dates in northeast Minnesota this is truly a once in a lifetime spring for the Upper Midwest.

Enjoy the earliest spring on record in much of Minnesota!

PH

April showers on the way

Posted at 8:07 AM on April 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

A slow moving weather system spinning into the Midwest from near Seattle will set up shop this week. As it moves into the area today, expect clouds to increase and rain to follow by tonight.

NOAA 3 day rainfall forecast highlights 2" to 3"+ rainfall in Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

The first rain bands should light up radars in Minnesota late this afternoon and this evening. It looks like Tuesday will be the wettest day this week with good soaking rains across much of southern Minnesota.

The surface low will track to near Kansas City by Tuesday afternoon. Minnesota will be on the cooler north side of the system. It looks like the heaviest rains may fall south into Iowa and along the I-90 corridor though Tuesday.

Forecast models lay out about hafl an inch of rain for the metro this week.

There may be some severe weather as far north as Iowa and the I-90 corridor Tuesday. Severe storms are rumbling through the Kansas City area Monday.

The rain will be a bonus by reducing fire danger and boosting the spring green up in the Upper Midwest. Keep the umbrella handy this week, and enjoy the pitter patter of spring rain on your rooftop.

PH

Drier and cooler weekend; Big rain Tuesday?

Posted at 5:34 PM on April 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Springtime

The green wave is about to hit Minnesota.

Friday's showers mark the first opportunity for some much needed rainfall in the Upper Midwest. As a cold front moved through Minnesota from west to east Friday, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms blew by.

The rain marks the first rainfall for the area in nearly a month. The last time we recorded significant rainfall was on March 10-11 when about half an inch fell, and washed away a good deal of our winter snow pack.

It looks as if the system will sweep through by early Saturday morning, giving us a mostly dry and cooler weekend.

-Twin Cities radar loop

Bigger storm on the horizon?

It looks as if a bigger more potent storm may move in next Tuesday. The system has the wrapped up look of a winter storm, but should be warm enough to produce all rain for most of Minnesota. There may be some snow on the colder west side of the storm in western and north central Minnesota.

Early indications are that this storm could bring an inch or more of rain to many locations Tuesday. The rainfall should help put the kibosh on the spring wildfire season in Minnesota.

NOAA 5-day precip hints at over 2" of badly needed rainfall for eastern Minnesota.

After the system passes, another warm up appears ready to move in by late next week and into the following week. It appears 70s and even 80s may return and continue the trend of our early spring weather this year.

With the rainfall and warmth on the way in the next two weeks, it's going to look a lot greener around here by mid April!

PH

No Foolin': Fire threat today, rain Friday

Posted at 8:16 AM on April 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

Twin Cities NWS weather story highlights warm temps and increased fire danger.

If this is Mother Nature's April fools joke, I'll take it. Get ready for June like temperatures on April 1st.

A warm front sitting in northern Iowa will surge north today, pumping June like air into southern Minnesota this afternoon. As it moves north, gusty southeast winds will kick up, and relative humidity will drop. The combination of warm temps, gusty winds and low humidity will create perfect conditions for grass and brush fires this afternoon. Any fires that start today will be fanned by winds of 15-25 mph this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures should reach the upper 70s in most of southern Minnesota, with upper 60s to near 70 pushing into the far north. The incoming air mass is warm enough that I would not be shocked to see 80 degrees in southeast Minnesota this afternoon, and maybe in the southeast metro to near Red Wing.

A cold front will push in from the west Friday. As it does, expect a line of showers and possible thunderstorms to develop in central Minnesota Friday PM, and push east into the Twin Cities by late afternoon into Friday evening. It appears the storms may stay below severe limits, but downpours, lighting, thunder and gusty winds are possible.

NOAA Rainfall forecast hints at a band of .50" to 1" rainfall possible in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we head into the weekend.

It looks like the potential for .50" to .75" of rainfall is there with this frontal system for parts of eastern Minnesota this weekend as the front slides through. A more potent system may bring more widespread soaking rainfall and possible even some snow to much of Minnesota next Tuesday.

Enjoy our third consecutive day of early summer like warmth today!

PH

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Target Field features many microclimates

Posted at 5:00 PM on March 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Baseball, Springtime, Target Field

Much has been written about the beauty of Target Field. It truly is a gem for our community and a jewel of a stadium. What you might not have thought about is how the stadium layout creates many different microclimates for fans.

Fans behind home plate enjoy Saturday's first ever game at Target Field. (Photos by Paul Huttner. Click on image for bigger picture)

As a meteorologist at last Saturday's first ever baseball game at Target Field, I viewed the stadium with sun angles and prevailing wind directions in mind. No matter what kind of weather you're looking for at TF, I think you'll find it. Here are some of my observations about possible microclimates at Target Field.

Sun & shade:

Target Field is oriented so that home plate is on the west end of the stadium. That means looking out toward center field is toward the east, and the center field seats face directly west.

For afternoon games, the sun will be shining directly onto seats from the outfield 3rd base line, and into the bleachers in left and center fields. If you want to bask in the afternoon and evening sun, this will be the place to be. The right field seats will also be in sunshine, but at an angle to the left side of most fans. Shade will also reach these seats first in the late afternoon.

On sunny days it will feel as much as 10 to 20 degrees warmer/hotter in left and center field than behind home plate. This will be nice in cooler days, but excess heat may be an issue on hot sunny summer days. Get ready to see some shirtless fans in the bleachers!

The left and center field bleachers will see the most direct sun for afternoon games.

The taller west side of the stadium structure means that shade will be extensive on the 1st base side, behind home plate, and wrapping over to about 3rd base. This will be a nice place to be on hot sunny summer days, but will make it feel much cooler on chilly days. Those overhead heaters will come in handy on chilly days like Saturday.

Fans catching some heat from overhead heaters in the left field corner.

Wind and shelter:

When the wind blows at TF, things are going to be sheltered areas and some areas where the wind speed may be increased by areas wind tunnel like effects.

The most open part of the structure is in right field next to Target Plaza which opens to downtown. This area opens to the southeast, which is the most prevalent wind direction in the summer months. On windy days from the south or southeast, the wind is going to blast into the stadium from right field blowing toward home plate and 3rd base.

Target Plaza and right field are the most open areas for gusty winds.

This will make the right field overlook one of the most exposed areas in the stadium. Even though it's only 328 feet down the right field line, It may also knock down a few deep fly balls from the Twins lefty-dominated lineup on windy days from the south. Things are going to get really interesting in the wind for right fielders with the overlook hanging in play overhead.

The overlook in right field.

Another area that will be interesting on windy days will be the stadium openings behind 1st base and on either side of the roof deck in the left filed corner near the fair pole. Openings in the stadium will force the wind to rush though these areas, creating a wind tunnel effect. It may not be the hurricane we're used to when leaving the Metrodome, but some bad hair days may result.

Openings around the roof deck and Twin executive office structure may create some "wind tunnel" like effects on windy days.

The flip side is behind home plate and down each base line. Even though there was not too much wind Saturday, I was amazed at how sheltered these areas are from wind. It may be relatively calm on windy days behind home plate.

The view toward home from left field.

It will be interesting to see how the stadium structure creates eddies during a big nor'wester. Our most common wind direction in spring and fall, a northwest wind will blow from near the 3rd base line out toward right field. The stadium structure will create a huge wind break, but may also create an eddy, or rotor on the downwind side. It will be interesting to see how deep fly balls carry in a northwest wind. Will they fly out unimpaired, or will the downdraft from an eddy knock some balls down before they can reach the seats?

Gophers shortstop A.J. Petterson prepares to drive in a run.

Rain returns to Minnesota baseball:

Minnesotans will have to get used to the words rain and baseball in the same sentence again! We've been protected by the "Thunderdome" since the 80s, but this year the elements will be in full play at Target Field.

To be fair, there are many "dry" areas in Target Filed. There is cover under the upper level canopy, in left field, and in the concourse behind the majority of seats from the left field corner all the way around behind home plate to the right field corner. And then there's all the climate controlled luxury of the Legend's Club and many other indoor bars and areas. Not to mention the suites.

The Kriby Puckett Atrium in the Legend's Club features climate controlled comfort.

But if you're in most of the seats at TF, you're going to get wet when it rains. That's just the way it is with outdoor baseball. Again, center and right field will be the most exposed. And there is no hiding on Target Plaza when the rain pours down.

Home field advantage? Home bull pen under cover, visitors in the elements?

In severe weather situations there are many "safe" areas to find shelter. The extensive glass of the metropolitan club and roof deck could be an issue if the winds reach tornadic force. But in that case there would be a lot of debris flying around that blows in from outside TF as well.

Let's hope we never have to test that scenario. While events like the tornado in downtown Minneapolis last August 19th show it can happen, the odds of a direct hit by a tornado on Target Filed are extremely rare.

The bottom line from someone who looks at outdoor spaces with an eye toward weather and climate is that Target Filed is a very well designed outdoor sports venue. It strikes the right balance of open space and shelter. There are areas for fans to move to and seek warmer or cooler microclimates. Like Minnesota weather, Target Field should offer Minnesotans several microclimates or "seasons" in the same day!

PH

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Season's 1st 70s ahead of schedule

Posted at 8:02 AM on March 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Springtime

Did you feel it?

We hit 75 degrees in the Twin Cities Tuesday afternoon. 70s were common in most of the southern half of Minnesota Tuesday. This marks the first 70 degree readings of the year and the first since last September 27th.

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT : 72 / 47 / 0.00 / M / M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT : 70 / 49 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 0
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT : 75 / 50 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 0
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT : 78 / 45 / 0.00 / M / M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 63 / 50 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 0
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 67 / 49 / T / 0.0 / 0
HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 68 / 54 / 0.00 / M / M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 48 / 40 / 0.00 / M / M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT : 74 / 51 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 0

The 70 degree warmth on March 30th comes about two weeks ahead of schedule. The average date for the first 70 degree day in the metro is April 12th. That puts us about 2 weeks ahead of the curve this year. Last year we hit 70 for the first time on April 16th.

Tuesday's 75 degree reading is about two months ahead of schedule. 75 is the average high for May 30th!

It looks like our weather winning streak will continue today and Thursday with highs in the 70s again. Showers and a few thunderstorms may slide through Friday into Saturday, but the heaviest rains may stay south.

Temperatures will cool down this weekend into the 50s, but it looks like temps will remain above average for the next 6 to 10 days.

PH

Maple syrup weather

Posted at 4:15 PM on March 25, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Springtime

Tapped tress mark maple sap time near the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven.(Photos by Paul Huttner)

Howie Bennis is a busy guy this time of year. My neighbor, driveway snowplow guy extraordinaire, former mayor and lifelong Deephaven resident comes from a family that used to tend a local veggie farm back in the day. The Huttner boys used to get some work picking veggies when we were kids. These days Howie farms maple trees to produce the sweet nectar that is Minnesota maple syrup.

Today is the kind of weather maple sappers love. Sunny skies, below freezing in the morning, above freezing in the afternoon. That usually gets the trees running pretty good.

Tap & tube feeds the maple sap into the bucket below.

I remeber field trips to the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum when we were kids. We'd tour the woods and taste the ever so slightly sweet sap running from the sugar maples. Then we'd head into the cooking house to see the big steel vats of sap boiling down all day to produce maple syrup. If I remember my math right, it takes about 40 gallons of maple sap to get one gallon of maple syrup.

Multiple buckets gather sap, which is collected and brought back to the "cooking house" for processing.

I think I'll stop by Howie's place this weekend. Writing this blog is making me hungry to eat a stack of pancakes drenched in the delicious mapley goodness that's running out of the trees near the Weather Lab.

PH

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