Updraft Category Archive: Spring 2013

May Monsoon: From drought to rock slides in weeks; Sun returns Thursday

Posted at 6:04 PM on May 22, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Welcome Sunshine

Thursday dawns with a welcome sight in Minnesota. The sun.

It's been a long soggy stretch since Friday in Minnesota. Several areas including the metro have waterlogged 3" to 4"+ rainfall totals in the past 5 days.

Thursday's sunshine will be welcome tonic.

We've seen a dramatic shift in weather patterns over Minnesota the past 4 months.

We've quite literally gone from extreme drought to floods, tragic rockslides, and saturated soils so wet farmers can't get crops started.

In this Updraft we celebrate the sun to come, take a squeamish look at a potentially wet Memorial Day Weekend forecast... and look at an overall weather pattern that still screams wet in the next few weeks.

Good News First: Sun returns Thursday into Friday

Always give compliments first, somebody once said. It prepares the audience for what may come next.

Thursday and most of Friday will feature glorious sunshine.

The Weather Tap 1km resolution visible satellite loop shows why northwest Minnesota basked in sun and 70 degree temps Wednesday, most of Minnesota slogged out one more day under cream of mushroom soupy skies leaking a cold rain and drizzle.

We enjoy about 48 hours to dry out with ample sun through Friday afternoon.

The next wave of rain moves in...um....Friday night and as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.

Memorial Day Weekend: Partly wet with a chance of sun?

I know... just in time for the weekend.

I'm still holding out hope for a change for the better...and sunnier this weekend but right now it looks like we'll have to endure our share of wet.

The first wave of rain moves in Friday night.

Go North Young Man:

Hopefully the warm front that will trigger clouds and rain will set up a little further south...and that means weather will improve this weekend for those travelling north. Little or no rain...and more sun may be the rule north of a Fargo-Brainerd -Duluth line this weekend.

Here's NOAA's 5-day precip forecast.

The good news? I expect significant improvement in Minnesota's drought when the US Drought Monitor comes out Thursday morning.

The drought is over folks.

Paul Huttner

OK Tornado Rated EF-5; Link to climate change? Sun returns tomorrow

Posted at 9:12 AM on May 22, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013, Tornadoes

Drismal

Not exactly a technical, AMS approved weather term. But if the shoe fits?

Our last really "yucky" weather day this week features occasional rain, drizzle and a raw north wind under a ragged grey sky.

Fast forward 24 hours to a bright blue sky with a strange bright object overhead. Thursday & Friday should put a spring back into your step.

The Memorial Day weekend forecast? Pretty typical for late May in Minnesota. Details below.

In this Updraft we look at the latest of 3 EF-4 to EF-5 monsters in to terrorize Moore, Oklahoma in the past 14 years. Are there any trends to link this event to climate change?

Moore, Oklahoma: Ground Zero in Tornado Alley

Incredible timelapse of Moore, OK tornado captured by an Oklahoma City news helicopter Monday

If there is an "Epicenter" in Tornado Alley, it has to be Moore, Oklahoma.

The Oklahoma City suburb has seen 3 direct hits from EF-4 to EF-5 tornadoes in the past 14 years.

Image credit: Weather Decision Technologies

Jeff Masters has noted that the latest Moore tornado likely to be one of the five most damaging tornadoes in history.

Moore has the unenviable distinction of having previously experienced the 4th costliest tornado in world history, the notorious May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore EF-5 tornado. There have been only six billion-dollar (2011 dollars) tornadoes in history:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.8 billion
2) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.7 billion
3) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 19780, $1.5 billion
4) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
5) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
6) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion

But is climate change a factor in producing more of these these monster EF-5 tornadoes?

Probably not.

Some facts:

-Oklahoma City has suffered the most direct tornado hits of any US city...at least 100 since 1890.

-Overall tornado stats show no real "frequency trends" to suggest a clear connection between violent tornadoes and climate change.

Image: NOAA

-EF4 & EF5 tornadoes compose less than 1% of all tornadoes...but produce 70% of tornado fatalities.

Image: tornadoproject.com.

-Warming trends in the US may produce more T-Storms overall, but also may create less wind shear that is necessary for tornado formation.

-There is some evidence tornado alley may be expanding northward. Annual average tornado numbers in Minnesota have nearly doubled since the 1950s.

-My analysis of SPC data for the past few decades shows the number of tornadoes in Minnesota has actually trended closer to Oklahoma. The chart below shows tornado numbers by decade since the 1950s. Oklahoma is the top line, Minnesota below.

Bottom line: There appears to be no discernible link between climate change and the increase in frequency of violent tornadoes in the US. There may be some evidence "Tornado Alley" is expanding northward.

Sun on the way:

Let's start with the good weather news. The sun will return to Minnesota tomorrow.

This morning's high res Weather Tap visible satellite loop shows the clouds swirling over most of Minnesota, with sunshine in the far northwest.

The latest NAM model run tracks the trend as our most recent deluge producing low pressure system finally pulls out tonight and a welcome wedge of high pressure slides in Thursday.

How To End A Drought:

4.41" May rainfall so far at MSP Airport

11.67" precipitation (rain & snow) at MSP since March 1st

Somebody turned on the faucet this spring in Minnesota. It's still running.

Our soggy April & May has turned farmers fields in southeast Minnesota from powder last fall to swamps this spring.

Check out the 30 day precip totals from NOAA's AHPS.

That's more than 10" of precip in the past 30 days in SE Minnesota. Several areas have waterlogged more than 5" of liquid that's soaking into and standing on fields.

Not exactly the best way to get a crop going...unless you're planting rice and it's about 30 degrees warmer.

I am growing increasingly concerned about farmers in southeast Minnesota and the shrinking window for getting crops to germinate and start growing this season.

Looking ahead the next 7 days appear to favor continued wetness in southern Minnesota, with a greater trend for sunny dry weather up north.

Memorial Day weekend at the cabin anyone?

Another holiday weekend in Minnesota is almost here. That means a good chance for rain right?

I can recall several years when I've gone to the BWCA with "the boys" on Memorial Day Weekend and we had sunny and pleasant weather...while the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota soaked up buckets of rain.

It's "climatologically typical" for low pressure to favor southern Minnesota Memorial Day weekend it seems.

This year looks to follow suit. The chances for more hours of sun and fewer hours of rain will increase as you head further north this weekend.

Paul Huttner

Mixed bag for Memorial Day weekend weather

Posted at 4:45 PM on May 21, 2013 by Nate Minor (0 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Spring 2013, Weekend

By Craig Edwards

Heading up north this weekend? Temperatures will not be all that warm and bouts of showers could dampen outdoor activities.

A good soaking has occurred in the last week. This image estimates the rainfall from May 17 through mid-afternoon today. The Duluth Airport measured more than eight-tenths of an inch of rain today.

Source:Weatheunderground

Travel weather on Friday afternoon shows north bound vehicles aided by south breezes with temperatures in the 60s.

Surface temperatures and wind from the NAM valid at 4 p.m. CDT Friday.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

Temperatures across the country will be quite typical for the season on Saturday. Cool weather rims the Great Lakes and New England.

Temperatures valid at 1 p.m. CDT Saturday from GFS model.
Source:NOAA/Twisterdata.com

Beginning Friday evening, your rain chances are about 30 to 40 percent for each 12-hour period through Memorial Day. Details to be sorted out on Thursday. It does not look like beach weather in Minnesota.

Craig Edwards

"May-soon" continues; More scattered rain & T-Storms today; Slight severe risk

Posted at 8:44 AM on May 20, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Spring 2013

May Monsoon

Spring has turned tropical in Minnesota. Our parade of storms hasn't stopped...it just warmed up.

At least we don't have to shovel it.

50 tornado reports over the weekend in the Central Plains? Nearly 3" rainfall totals over central Minnesota and the metro?

I'd call that a "productive" system. Do the Twins lead the Majors in rain delays this year?

Our rain & thunder threat lingers today and tomorrow. With an active warm front draped over Minnesota we could see a few more severe storms again this afternoon & evening.

Keep the weather radio handy again later today.

Stormy Target Field Sunday
Image: Luke Huttner

Eventful Severe Weekend

The thundery weekend onslaught triggered several significant events in Minnesota.

-Minnesota's 1st tornado of 2013 touched down Friday at 5:45pm near Wilder in Jackson County in southwest Minnesota. No damage was reported.

-The 1st tornado warning of 2013 for metro area counties (Pierce & St. Croix) was issued Sunday PM

-Two raucous "sunrise surprise" T-Storms outbreak pounded the Twin Cities Saturday & Sunday AM

-The 1st Tornado Watch of 2013 for the metro was issued Sunday

-Several reports of wind gusts between 60 & 70 mph raked the southeast metro Sunday PM

-The Twin Cities piled up 2.88" of rainfall at MSP Airport since Friday.

-May rainfall now stands at 3.74" (that's +1.68 vs. average)

Can the mosquitoes be far behind?

Here's a map from the Twin Cities NWS with Sunday's severe weather reports.

And the national map from SPC.

How To Dismantle A Drought:

The productive rains have piled up in Minnesota. A good chunk of the Dakotas and Minnesota bagged some 2"-3" rainfall totals last weekend.

Lollygagging Low

Our frequent tropical deluge is courtesy of another stalled weather pattern. As the "vertically stacked" upper level and surface spin in the eastern Dakotas, waves of showers & T-Storms break out in MInnesota. Like cards in a 10 year olds bicycle wheel, each time an upper air disturbance blows by we get a wave of rain & thunder.

Monday's Weather Tap IR loop shows the low spinning away in the eastern Dakotas.

Expect the next wave of rain & thunder this afternoon and evening, especially from the Twin Cities north through the northern half of Minnesota.

Severe Risk Lingers:

The atmosphere will get irritable again this afternoon, and should be unstable enough to produce a few severe T-Storms later this afternoon and evening... mainly from the Twin Cities east.

Here's today's severe risk from SPC.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF IA/WI EASTWARD INTO MI/OH. RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE CAP SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MN. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...WHILE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HELPS TO ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MULTIPLE LINES/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THIS REGION...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Our stubborn low will finally move out Wednesday.

The sunniest brightest days of the week? Thursday & Friday. Naturally.

The early look at Memorial Day Weekend calls for a mix of sun & clouds with a chance of scattered showers & T-Storms and high in the 70s.

Paul Huttner

MPR Weather Live Blog: Metro severe threat fades; Chance of rain overnight

Posted at 2:19 PM on May 19, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Spring 2013

NOAA has cancelled the tornado watch for the Twin Cities.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into Monday morning.

Get the latest warnings and storm reports here.

Tornado Watch until 9pm includes the Twin Cities

Posted at 1:08 PM on May 19, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Spring 2013

Here we go.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch until 9pm tonight for most of southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro area.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest Warnings from Twin Cities NWS

Storms will develop this afternoon in an increasingly unstable air mass and move north.

Stay tuned and expect severe weather warnings this afternoon and evening.

Paul Huttner

1st MN Tornado of 2013; Sun, rain & thunder; Record late Mille Lacs ice out

Posted at 6:33 PM on May 17, 2013 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

First Tornado of 2013 skips through southwest Minnesota Friday evening:

A lone supercell thunderstorm produced the season's 1st confirmed tornado sightings in Minnesota Friday evening. Here are the reports from the Sioux Falls NWS.

FSD issues Tornado Warning for Cottonwood, Jackson [MN] till 6:15 PM CDT * AT 545 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WILDER AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

FSD: 3 N Lakefield [Jackson Co, MN] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 06:10 PM CDT -- relayed by jackson county emergency management

Splash & Dash

This weekend features a little something for everyone in Minnesota.

Soaking rain for your lawn & garden? Check.

Sunny, "beach-worthy" hours with highs in the 80s? Roger that.

A little humidity with dew points in the 60s? Copy that.

A Sunday PM severe threat just to keep the weatherman on his toes? Yup.

Big, recently angry Lake Mille Lacs will finally go completely ice free this weekend after stubbornly clinging to the last chunks of ice this week.

Progress.

You can't please all of the people all of the time, but here's a look at why this weekend's weather may offer a little something for everyone.

Weekend Weather Grab Bag: Pick your spots

Timing is everything.

You'll have opportunities to get just about anything done this weekend outside...but you'll have to pick your spots.

After a possible early morning round of showers and T-Storms, Saturday looks like the "drier" day of the weekend...but with that pesky low swirling in the eastern Dakotas we can't rule out an isolated shower or T-Storm at any point this weekend.

Still...I can see many dry hours Saturday, and high should reach the lower 80s. It will feel like summer again in most of Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Saturday's severe threat is focused in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. The best chance for a T-Storm with damaging winds and hail? Sioux Falls to Canby and Ortonville.

Here's Saturday's risk area from SPC.

By Sunday the severe risk spreads east as upper level energy moves in over southern Minnesota. That means severe storms may roam southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening...including the Twin Cities.

Here's the verbiage in Sunday's "convective outlook" from SPC.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

"Enhanced language" in new Impact Based Warnings:

Friday we got our 1st preview of some eye catching language in NWS new "Impact Based Warnings" that debut in Minnesota this year.

This storm near Windom produced the 1st tornado report of the year in Minnesota Friday evening.

Here's the warning for the 1st tornado of 2013 in Minnesota Friday evening.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COTTONWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 545 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WILDER
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL COTTONWOOD COUNTIES.

Get used to the more "graphic" language as part of an effort to get us all to take appropriate action...and warnings more seriously when they are issued.

Soaking Rains:

The slow moving weather systems does have it's benefits.

We still need a good soaking in many areas to douse the drought. Take a look at NOAA's rainfall forecast for the next 5-7 days.

Good news for farmers and anyone else who depends on water for life. Oh wait...that's all of us.

Mille Lacs: Latest ice out on record

Lake Mille Lacs has been one big, stubborn, angry lake lately.

You can still see chunks of ice floating on the east side of the big lake Friday from the Hunter's Point resort webcam.

Last weekend's "ice attack" was one thing. This week Mille Lacs decided to deliver another unprecedented event.

According to the MN DNR, this is the latest ice out on record for Mille Lacs, besting the previous record of May 15th, 1950.

Most other lakes in central and northern Minnesota have been totally ice free for days including Leech, Red and even Fall lake near Ely.

Get the latest ice out dates here.

And then there's... Prom Night 2013:

Please forgive the brief digression, but I just can't resist.

Friday evening is Prom Night for Minnetonka High School, and many other young people in Minnesota.

Our son Luke is a senior at MHS and will graduate in 3 weeks. He's headed for the University of Kansas later this summer where's he's been accepted into the William Allen White School of Journalism and Mass Communications to study advertising.

Here's what it's like to be almost 18 and headed for prom night. Ahh...to be 18 again, if only for a night!

And no that's not his cherry red Audi...a loaner from some very generous friends.

Travel well young man!

Paul Huttner

"May Monsoon" moves in; Warm thundery weekend mixes sun & rain; Ice out up north

Posted at 6:04 PM on May 16, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

"May-soon"

Call it our May Monsoon...or a "June Preview."

Either way get ready for a change for the wetter the next few days. This is the rainy season in Minnesota.

The culprit?

A strong low pressure system that will "stall" over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this weekend into next week.

The result?

Occasional bouts of rain and thunder...and some of the rain will be heavy at times.

No, the weekend won't be a total washout, but you'll have to pick your spots to enjoy that Twins game or stroll through Art-A-Whirl "up Nordeast."

In this Updraft we'll try and time out some of the rain...and track rapid ice out trends in central and northern Minnesota this week.

Rainy Season

Yes, that's a lot of rain & thunderstorm symbols in the NWS forecast the next few days.

To be sure, most of Minnesota will see several bouts of showers and T-Storms into early next week. The good news is...even though rain will come down heavy at times, the weekend won't be a total wash out.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop from WxUnderground

Here's a quick breakdown of the weekend at this point:

Friday: Wave #1 rolls in with showers and T-Storms overnight through Friday morning. Rain focuses on southern Minnesota and will be locally heavy at times...and overall rainfall totals should be between .50" and 1" including the Twin Cities... but may top 1" in some areas.

Most of the rain should fall in the AM hours...and we may some peeks of PM/evening sun in the metro.

Saturday & Sunday:

As the low spins in the eastern Dakotas this weekend...scattered showers and T-Storms will pop up around Minnesota.

Right now...Saturday looks like the drier day for the metro. I can't rule out a stray shower or T-Storm...but we should see many dry hours Saturday. High temps should approach 80F in the south...with 60s & 70s up north.

Sunday looks like the wetter day of the weekend as showers & T-Storms become more widespread. You'll notice the humidity by Sunday as dew points climb into the summer like 60s!

Severe Threat Increases:

The risk for severe storms increases Saturday over the eastern Dakotas and far western Minnesota. I am concerned there will be enough spin...or "wind shear" to produce some tornadoes Saturday...especially in eastern South Dakota and far western Minnesota.

Chances for a few severe storms may increase close to southern Minnesota...and possibly as far north as the metro by Sunday evening as more upper level energy rides in fromt the southwest. Looking at the maps, I anticipate NOAA's SPC may bump the risk area north Friday to include the metro for Sunday afternoon and evening.

Keep an eye and ear out for the possibility of an increased threat for severe storms...and possibly a few tornadoes in southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday & Tuesday: The wettest period may actually be Monday & Tuesday as the stalled upper low begins to pull east over Minnesota.

The patchwork of occasional scattered rain the next few days will give most areas a good shot at some widespread 2"+ rainfall totals. A bigger area of 3" top 5"+ totals will favor the northwest half of Minnesota.

Check out the impressive totals from NOAA's "Weather Prediction Center" (WPC)

The good news is we can use a good soaking for lakes, rivers, lawns and fields.

Going...going... gone: Ice going fast up north

This week's warmth and breezes has taken out ice fast in central and northern Minnesota.

Many lakes in northern Minnesota are now ice free...including many of the BWCA area lakes.

Here's the closeup 250 meter resolution NASA MODIS shot over northeast MN Thursday.

Even sprawling and stubborn "Ice Queen" Lake Mille Lacs is finally giving up her icy crust. Check out the sequence of NASA MODIS satellite shots this week that shows the big lake nearly ice free as of Wednesday.

Not all the ice is out at Mille Lacs. Here's the webcam shot from an "iced in" Hunter's Point Resort on the east side of Mille Lacs Thursday.

You can catch up with the latest ice out reports as the come into the MN DNR here.

Paul Huttner

Weather perfection today; rain & thunder Friday morning; mixed weekend

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 16, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Classic Spring Weather

"Normal" weather...what a concept.

No big extremes ahead for the next few days...just a mix of sunny tranquil days, scattered showers and thunderstorms, some local grass greening downpours, and some sunny warm hours mixed in for good measure this weekend.

Kind of sounds like "May" in Minnesota.

Our weather pattern starts tranquil today, then takes a turn for the rainy.

In this Updraft we track some probable hefty rainfall totals over the next 5 days, and look between the clouds for some dry, sunny and warm hours this weekend.

Not a total washout...but you may have to pick your spots this weekend.

Typical for May in Minnesota.

Perfect Thursday?

Today is as good as it gets.

Plenty of sun and temps pushing into the low 80s is good tonic for us this spring. Get out and enjoy the sun and warmth today. Clouds will increase later this afternoon and evening.

Friday: Wet start...sunny finish?

I'm watching clusters of showers and T-Storms today rumbling through Nebraska and South Dakota. That's our weather fare for Friday morning.

An upper level wave will trigger round #1 of what could be a series of rain & T-Storm clusters this the next few days. Look for rain to increase in southwest Minnesota tonight...and roll into the Twin Cities before AM drive time Friday morning. It should be a wet commute Friday AM in the metro.

The European Model "meteogram" favors a few rainy hours between 4am and noon tomorrow.

Soaking rainfall totals Friday morning between .50" and 1" are quite possible across the southern third of Minnesota, including the metro.

Weekend Split: Saturday the nicer & drier day?

If you're looking for a few dry hours to stroll Art-A-Whirl or any other outdoor fare this weekend Saturday may be your best bet.

Scattered storms will favor the northern half of Minnesota Saturday, but I can't rule out an hour of rain in the metro or a passing shower/T-Storm.

Sunday looks like the wetter day of the weekend right now...as a slow moving low pressure system stalls in eastern South Dakota.

Sunday & Monday look like the best chances for several hours of rain.

Rainfall totals could easily be over 2" by then in many locations. Keep in mind spring & summer "convective" rainfall is usually scattered...and rainfall totals can vary greatly a mile down the road.

Drought Buster?

Today's new U.S. Drought Monitor shows little change in drought in Minnesota from last week. Southeast Minnesota...and a sliver of far northern Minnesota are still "drought free" with near average soil moisture.

There are still sizeable chunks of western Minnesota that are in moderate to severe drought.

The rains the next few days look well placed to potentially erase some more drought areas in Minnesota.

If 4"+ totals verify by next Tuesday in western Minnesota, that would go a long way toward wiping out drought.

Weather fingers & toes crossed.

Paul Huttner

Springtacular Thursday; "May Monsoon" starts Friday; 3"+ rainfall by Tuesday?

Posted at 5:33 PM on May 15, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

"Goldilocks" Forecast Thursday

It just doesn't get any better than this. Not too warm...not too cold. Just right.

In my 30+ years of "weather feedback"...Wednesday was what most Minnesotans think of as "perfect weather."

Our pristine blue spring sky, decorative white clouds and budding green leaves seem long overdue this year.

In this Updraft we celebrate a repeat performance Thursday, then turn our eyes to a wetter weather pattern starting Friday. That's some good news for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin that have been fighting wildfires in this week's warm dry air mass.

Spectacular Thursday...then "May Monsoon" kicks in:

Get out and enjoy Thursday. Thursday starts sunny...then high clouds filter in as the day wears on. Another day near 80F in May is a bonus this spring.

Our weather pattern goes back to wet mode starting Friday.

A slow-moving low sets up in the eastern Dakotas and will linger through the weekend...and into early next week.

This means waves of occasional showers & T-Storms across Minnesota from Friday through next Tuesday.

Drought Buster? Some of the storms will produce locally heavy downpours through this weekend into next week.

NWS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) cranks out some 3"+ rainfall totals over a big swath of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest by next Tuesday.

The rainfall could further help alleviate what's left of drought in Minnesota in the next week.

Severe stays south?

I have my doubts about this right now...but NOAA's SPC is keeping most of the severe stuf south of Minnesota this weekend.

If the low tracks a little further north...I think we may see some strong to borderline severe storms this weekend in Minnesota.

Stay tuned!

Paul Huttner

Hot Front: One day heat wave brings season's 1st 90s & Red Flag Warnings

Posted at 6:21 PM on May 13, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Extreme Minnesota

I'm beginning to think we need our own weather reality show in Minnesota.

Dear (weather) Diary:

May 3rd:18" snowfall sets all time May snowfall record for Minnesota.

May 11th: A wall of ice from Lake Mille Lacs invades shore damaging boat houses and condos.

Sunday: Frost on Mother's Day morning.

Tuesday: 90 degree heat surge triggers Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings.

Cue the locusts.

In this Updraft we try and keep up with the rapid weather changes in Minnesota.

Red Flag Warning:

Near as I can tell, the term "Red Flag Warning" originated out west when ranchers or the postmaster would hang a red flag if fire danger was high. Okay...I may be of a bit there but you get the idea. I don't know if the Pony Express still rides the plains of western Minnesota, but I do know that the combination of low humidity and gusty winds means high fire danger Tuesday.

NWS has more.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...

HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT. THIS CAN RESULT IN DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SHIFTING
WEST.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...WILDFIRES COULD BECOME FAST MOVING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.

Extreme Warm Front:

The infamous "thermal ridge" ...the axis of warmest air will slide right over southern Minnesota at peak temperature time Tuesday afternoon. That should mean plenty fo temps in the 90s Tuesday....with some mid 90s possible.

The record high for MSP is 95 Tuesday. We'll make a run... but I think 92F or 93F is the likely high at many metro locations Tuesday PM.

The rest of the week we should enjoy temps in the upper 70s to near 80F.

Ice out progress:

Ice is going out in more lakes in central Minnesota. Here the latest from the MN DNR.

Paul Huttner

Instant July: Hot front & 1st 90F tomorrow; Ice crushes lake homes in Manitoba

Posted at 8:50 AM on May 13, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Instant Summer

"May you live in interesting times."

That old saying is thought to be a Chinese curse. You have to wonder if somebody uttered it regarding Minnesota's weather a few months back.

Our late winter attack is the gift that just keeps on giving.

An "Ice-Tsunami" in Lake Mille Lacs in May? At this rate the NWS is going to need a whole new category of severe weather warnings.

"Damaging Lake Ice Invasion Warning" in effect today?

Still it could have been much worse, and it was along the southern shores of Dauphin Lake west of Winnipeg, Manitoba where a 27 foot wall of ice crushed 20 lake homes. Details below.

Today we look at ice...and fire as a hot front blows in tomorrow with the 1st 90s of the season in Minnesota.

Can severe weather be far behind?

Mille Lacs Ice Invasion:

It's worth another look.

This is the most dramatic ice invasion anyone in these parts can remember on MIlle Lacs.

What just happened?

Saturday's sustained winds and gusts to over 30 mph exerted tremendous force on the ice on Mille Lacs. As the giant ice sheet moved ashore, the pressure shoved the fractured ice ashore, and the unstoppable glacial mass moved easily over relatively flat shoreline consuming everything in its path.

Image: Dawn H. via KARE 11

Sunday's NASA MODIS Terra shot shows how the strong NW winds pushed the ice on Red & Lake of the Woods southeast, with open water on the northwest shores.

Dauphin Lake Manitoba: Major damage

The ice avalanche was much worse west of Winnipeg Manitoba.

As many as 20 homes & cabins were damaged or destroyed there...literally crushed or ripped from foundations as an immense 27 foot high wall of ice grinded ashore Friday night. Details from the Winnipeg Free Press.

Image credit: Cade Malone via Winnipeg Free Press

A local state of emergency has been declared in a western Manitoba municipality after homes in Ochre Beach were destroyed and seriously damaged by a wave of lake ice.

Area officials told CBC News the wind pushed built-up ice off Dauphin Lake on Friday evening and caused it to pile up in the community, located on the lake's southern shore.

The piles of ice, which were more than nine metres tall in some cases, destroyed at least six homes and cottages, according to the Rural Municipality of Ochre River.

Another 14 homes suffered extensive damage, with some structures knocked off their foundations.

Clayton Watts, Ochre River's deputy reeve, said it's a miracle no one was hurt.

He told CBC News one minute people were watching hockey in their living rooms, the next they heard something that sounded like a freight train near their homes.

"It happened so quick," said Watts. "And you can't predict it -- not like water that slowly comes up."

Watts said there are several cabins that were completely flattened by the wall of ice that came at them.

"The ice is over top of them, they've been crushed, there's nothing left," he said.

"There are other cabins that have been knocked right off their footings," he continued. "There's ice right over top of some of the cabins, coming over the roof on the other side."

According to Environment Canada winds were registered at about 80 km/h in the area Friday night.

Hot Front Ahead: Instant July Tuesday

From heat to AC in 36 hours?

Welcome to "Extreme Minnesota."

Those southerly winds you feel today are ejecting the weekend's cooler air mass to the north. Hotter, drier desert like ari mass blows in Tuesday...with highs in the 90s.

A "Fire Weather Watch" Tuesday means any fires that start could rapidly spead...fanned by the tinder dry air mass and high winds.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...

HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...
HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...
REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...
ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

511 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...WILDFIRES COULD BECOME FAST MOVING IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.

1-Day Heat Wave:

Temps will soar into the lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. A fresh northwest breeze provides free AC as cool into the upper 70s the rest of this week. That's my kind of cool front!

Stormy next weekend?

The next slow moving low pressure system crawls through Minnesota next weekend (perfect timing) with scattered (soaking?) rain and thunder...and maybe our 1st severe weather of the season.

Right now SPC keeps most of the severe risk south of Minnesota this weekend, but that may change this week.

Paul Huttner

Slow Motion Ice Avalanche: High winds push 5 to 30 foot Mille Lacs "ice drifts" ashore; Damaged boat houses & condos

Posted at 9:22 PM on May 11, 2013 by Paul Huttner (14 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

This week I predicted "ice drifts" would come ashore on Mille Lacs with high winds Saturday.

I had no idea it would be this bad.

Sustained winds near 20 mph, with gusts to near 40 mph shoved an avalanche of ice from Lake Mille Lacs onshore Saturday.

Take a look at the incredible video at Izatys as the unstoppable "ice invasion" rolls ashore...and busts right through doors and into townhomes.

Here is a shot from a boathouse near Izatys that was swarmed... inundated, and damaged by a wall of ice that pushed ashore.

I have seen many things in 30 years of forecasting weather in Minnesota. I have never seen anything like this.

Maybe NWS will need to come up with a new type of "Damaging Lake Ice Invasion Warning" for future outbreaks.

Thankfully winds Sunday should be under 10mph and I don't expect a repeat performance.

But Monday winds will shift into the south and could gust over 20 mph at times. Persons on the north shore of Mille Lacs should be alert for possible "onshore ice floes" Monday.

Simply astonishing.

Paul Huttner

Instant Summer: Frost to 90s (Heat to AC) in 2 days; Windy Fishing Opener 2013

Posted at 3:51 PM on May 10, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Weather Whiplash Ahead

Here we go again.

After a perfectly tranquil and nearly "average" spring Friday in Minnesota, the winds of extreme change will blow again.

Seasonal confusion may set in in the next 4 days, as you transition from a frosty car windshield on Mother's Day morning...to a beach towel and AC by Tuesday afternoon.

34F Sunday morning to 90F on Tuesday?

Much of southern Minnesota may top the 90 degree mark as a hot dome of high pressure blows next week.

This time our "Instant Summer" may hang around, even thouhg we "cool" off into the 70s as next week roll on.

My kind of "cool" front.

66F High temp at MSP Friday

15 hours of daylight in Minnesota this weekend

Weather lab lilacs in bud Friday
Image: Paul Huttner MPR News

Springy:

Friday was the quintessential, almost "average" spring day in Minnesota. Light winds, pristine blue skies and a "greening" landscape is good tonic for the winter weary Minnesota soul.

Ferns ready to burst

Phenologists call our spring greenup the "Green Wave." I've heard that in most year it moves north at an a average of about 13 miles a day in spring.

This year the Green Wave made it to Kansas City and Omaha...then stopped dead for about a month as our unwelcome late winter surge clung to Minnesota.

Thankfully it's finally here.

Gales of May: Fishing Opener Weekend Cold Front:

Saturday features another cold front...and some gusty winds.

This might be the year to try your luck fishing from the windward shore on Fishing Opener Saturday. Gusts to 30+ mph will fuel some big waves and whitecaps on Minnesota lakes Saturday.

"Ice Out" Saturday?

Saturday's gales may help break up some ice on the bigger lakes in central Minnesota.

The sheer force of the northwest gales on the ice may shove some impressive "ice drifts" onto the southeast shore of Mille Lacs and other big lakes.

You can watch the progress of ice out this weekend on the MN DNR ice out map.

Here's another cool look at the ice conditions on Mille Lacs, including a time lapse from the Twin Pines resort on Mille Lacs.

Instant Summer: Frost to 90 in 2 days?

You may have a hard time keeping up with rapid weather changes next week.

Mother Day's starts frost in much of Minnesota, but Sunday afternoon should be nice for a stroll with mom.

Monday's warm front blows in the warmest air mass of the season so far. By Tuesday afternoon, the "thermal ridge" set up shop right over southern Minnesota. Temps at or above 90F look like a real possibility...and the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion touches on some historical "analogues" that suggest it could get even hotter.

Here's the potentially steamy "weather geek speak" from the Twin Cities NWS.

THICKNESSES RISE TO 577+ DAM...AND 925 MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS NEAR +30C /+27C ON THE ECMWF/ ACROSS WRN MN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 875 MB. A COMPOSITE OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR MAY 2012 HAD 925 MB TEMPS OF JUST +22C. THE TOP CIPS ANALOG OFF THE 09.12Z GFS FOR TUESDAY IS 6/8/1985 WHEN THE HIGH REACHED 102 AT MSP.

RAISED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT EVEN THESE TEMPS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THERMAL PROFILES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING COME CLOSE TO VERIFYING. COULD SEE SOME 95 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS SWRN MN. TO THINK WE GO FROM FREEZE HEADLINES AND NEAR RECORD LOWS...TO A SUMMERLIKE HEAT WAVE AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN 48 HOURS IS ASTONISHING.

Astonishing indeed.

Welcome to "Extreme Minnesota."

Climate Milestone: Earth's CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm

We've known atmospheric CO2 has been increasing rapidly for decades. This week Earth's atmospheric CO2 reached a level not see in 2-3 million years.

National Geographic's Robert Kunzig has details.

An instrument near the summit of Mauna Loa in Hawaii has recorded a long-awaited climate milestone: the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere there has exceeded 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in 55 years of measurement--and probably more than 3 million years of Earth history.

Photograph by Jonathan Kingston, National Geographic

The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 30 feet higher--at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world.

The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. But the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future.

Two independent teams of scientists measure CO2 on Mauna Loa: one from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the other from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The NOAA team posted word on its web site this morning before dawn Hawaii time: The daily average for May 9 was 400.03 ppm. The Scripps team later confirmed the milestone had been crossed.

The Scripps team is led by Ralph Keeling, son of the late Charles David Keeling, who started the Mauna Loa measurements in 1958. Since then the "Keeling curve," showing the steady climb in CO2 levels caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, has become an icon of climate change.

Paul Huttner

Weather Whiplash: 60s, frost, to near 90F ahead? Ice giving way up north

Posted at 7:29 AM on May 9, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Weather Roller Coaster

All aboard!

Get ready for another ride on Minnesota's favorite Midway attraction.

Our latest weather whiplash comes courtesy of a cold/warm front combo blasting through Minnesota in the span of 48 hours.

From frost to 80s in 2 days?

Only in Minnesota.

The good news?

I'd say there's a 70% chance that the frosty nip Mother's Day morning could be our last frost of the season in the metro.

It may finally be safe(er) top put in some annuals for those who are brave enough after Sunday morning.

I'm also tracking ice out in central Minnesota, and there is some progress to report. Things may be looking up on many lakes...and smaller bays of your favorite bigger lakes this weekend.

Shore lunch anyone?

Little darling
I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling
It seems like years since it's been clear

-Here Comes The Sun - Beatles

Progress: Ice slowly giving way in central Minnesota

There is slow, but significant progress to report with ice out conditions in central Minnesota.

Some of the smaller lakes are now ice free.

Red Sand Lake, just west of Brainerd was ice free as of Wednesday. Big Stony Lake near Park Rapids was ice free Tuesday.

This is a good indication that may smaller and mid-sized lakes in central Minnesota may be ice free... just in time for the Minnesota Fishing Opener Saturday.

The bigger lakes like Mille Lacs, Gull, Leech and the Whitefish Chain may still have ice when the clock strikes midnight Saturday morning...but many of the smaller bays may be open by then.

Saturday gales may break up ice:

Stiff northwest gales with gusts to over 30mph may push the big ice sheets with enough force to break up some of the bigger lakes Saturday.

Don't be surprised to see some good video this weekend of "ice drifts" getting shoved onto the southeast shores of big lakes like Mille lacs Saturday.

There is a decent chance that some of the big lakes could be partly...to mostly ice free by Sunday.

Weather Whipsawed: Frost to near 90F in 48 hours??

Saturday's powerful cold front will give way to chilly high pressure by Sunday morning.

Frost is likely up north...and may dip into the Twin Cities metro early on Mother's Day.

By Monday...an equally powerful warm front blasts in on gusty southwest winds.

80s are likely the metro...and I won't be shocked to see some temps at or near 90F in southern Minnesota & northern Iowa Tuesday afternoon.

From heat to AC in 48 hours?

Only in MInnesota.

Paul Huttner

Popcorn T-Showers; What do SPC severe weather "risk areas" really mean?

Posted at 6:10 PM on May 8, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Spring 2013

Hit or Miss

"If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes." - Anonymous

Time to trot out that old tried & true Minnesota weather lore.

A lazy upper level low pressure system spins overhead with a swirl of popcorn "hit or miss" showers through Thursday.

A few "garden variety" thundershowers may delight you to a lighting flash and clap of thunder as the system rolls through.

While this system looks pretty tame, this is severe weather season in Minnesota.

Ever wonder what NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) looks at when issuing those dreaded "risk areas" for severe weather?

In this Updraft we take a peek behind the curtain at SPC, and preview the weekend forecast for the best spots to celebrate with mom or toss in a line on your favorite lake.

The Weather Lab lawn and roses could use a little rain...bring it.

78F Wednesday's high at MSP Airport (1:18pm)

"Budding Plants New Moon" Thursday (Ojibwe)

-Time Lapse of Mille Lacs ice beginning to move in Wednesday's light breezes

Into each life

I'm hoping the models verify for a minor soaking this week.

Talk about "hit or miss" ... check out Wednesday's MODIS Terra 250 meter resolution visible shot over north central Minnesota. You can see the "popcorn" nature of the showers...a downpour in one spot and sunny skies a few miles away.

You can see the spotty showers with a few local downpours moving slowly northward on the latest Twin Cities radar loop.

SPC: What's in a risk area?

Want to find the best "severe weather" minds on the planet? Check out NOAA's SPC.

Every day a team of talented meteorologists pours over dozens of models, satellite and radar images and animations looking for clues to the day's severe weather puzzle.

When they find trouble spots, they issue a "risk" for that area.

SPC issues 3 types of "risk areas"... Low-Moderate & High. Here are the probabilities associated with a given risk factor...within 25 miles of your location.

Keep these probabilities in mind as we move into the heart of severe season in Minnesota in the next 60 days.

Severe weather season: Ramping up in May & June

So when is the "peak" of severe weather season in Minnesota?

Looking at the history...or "climatology" of severe weather it peaks between Memorial Day and the 4th of July.

At least statistically you have a better chance of a "storm free" Labor Day picnic than on the 4th.

Something to keep in mind as you plan your outdoor festivities this summer.

Paul Huttner

Tracking showers today; 80F by Tuesday? Spring planting behind schedule

Posted at 8:47 AM on May 8, 2013 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

"Maypril" Showers

If you had control of the weather joystick, when would you make it rain? At night... on a Wednesday?

Doug is a farmer near Willmar I had the pleasure of meeting over the weekend.

He's working on putting in 1,700 acres of corn and 1,000 acres of soybeans this week. Monday & Tuesday were ideal for fieldwork. A minor soaking today & tonight may help jump start anything farmers have planted so far.

Our midweek shower shot looks timely for many Minnesotans. The overall weather forecast is much more palatable, and springlike in the next week. Keeping fisherfolk, mom and farmers all happy at the same time is tough, but it may actually happen at some point over the next week.

Get ready to ride the temperature roller coaster...with frost and 80 degrees likely within about a span of 36-48 hours next Sunday-Tuesday.

This is "Extreme Minnesota" afterall.

Radar: Pretty colors today

A modest low pressure system is sliding through the Midwest today and tonight.

Look for an increase in shower coverage today from west to east. Rain will favor the PM & evening hours in the Twin Cities. The best chance of a stray clap of thunder or two comes this evening in the metro.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

NOAA's High Resolution Radar (HRR) output suggest a radar screen plastered with rain showers and a few embedded thundershowers by over the metro by 7pm this evening.

Overall rainfall looks to be in the .25" to .50" range for Minnesota...with some local .75" totals possible.

With dew points in the 50s, minimal "surface heating" and an overall lack of wind shear, Any thundershowers that do form appear to be garden variety, "sub-severe" storms.

NOAA's SPC keeps Minnesota in the "general" T-Storm category...but folks in Tornado Alley will need to keep an eye out for some severe T-Storms, primarily "hailers" with the potential for wind damage.

Farmers: Playing catch up in 2013

Spring planting is later than last year, and behind the 5 year running average according to this week's MN Crop Report.

Minnesota farmers had another difficult week getting
into their fields, according to the USDA, National
Agricultural Statistics Service. A late season snow
storm continued to bring moisture to areas that were
already damp and cold. Livestock producers are
concerned about the slow growth of alfalfa and pastures.
The farmers that were able to work outside were busy
with field preparation, fertilizer spreading, and planting.

There were 1.3 days rated suitable for fieldwork for the week ending May 5th, compared with last year's 3.5 days, and the average of 3.2 days. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 2 percent very short, 15 percent short, 62 percent adequate, and 21 percent surplus.

Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 11 percent very short, 35 percent short, 49 percent adequate, and 5 percent surplus. Corn planting, at 2 percent complete, is almost 50 percent behind the 5 year average. Oat planting is 9 percent complete, compared with
96 percent last year, and the five year average of 64 percent. Green peas are 10 percent planted, compared with 76 percent last year, and the average of 47 percent. Producers anticipate full scale fieldwork to begin on May 8t. Pasture conditions improved slightly to 21 percent very poor, 17 percent poor, 38 percent fair and 24 percent good.

Forecast: A little something for everyone

After our showery midweek, Friday looks like a sleeper of a nice day with sun, light winds and highs near 70 in the metro with 60s up north.

Saturday's NW gales of 15-30 mph will create havoc on Minnesota lakes...with whitecaps on open water. I could see the big wind breaking up some ice on the bigger lakes like Mille Lacs...and shoving some "ice drifts" onto the southeast shores.

Sunday looks nicer for mom...followed by a warm front that will boost temps to near 80F by Tuesday.

Frost to 80-degrees in 36-48 hours?

Welcome to Minnesota.

Paul Huttner

Wednesday Thundershowers; Fishing Opener ice-tracker; 80F by next Tuesday?

Posted at 5:37 PM on May 7, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Getting Better

During 9 years as the evening weather guy in Arizona, I once did the weather live from the O.K. Corral.

Being your local weatherman in Minnesota the last 3 months in Minnesota has felt like bring in the line of fire from the Clanton Brothers, and an angry mob of winter agitated Minnesotans.

These are better days to be a weatherman.

The weather maps insist spring is here to stay this time with a more "typical" May weather pattern.

May (thunder) showers work their way into the forecast Wednesday, a timely mid-week soaking for lawns & fields.

Many eyes this weekend are focused in ice and weather conditions in central and northern Minnesota. A long awaited economic boost to resorts, bait shops and kitschy Minnesota taverns is right around the corner. Will there be ice or open water on your favorite Minnesota lake?

The great thing about fishing opener in Minnesota is, at least half the fun is just getting there, being there, and spending some much needed quality time with your best friends & family.

And don't forget Mom. Mother's Day looks like the kinder, gentler day this weekend.

Perfect timing for Mother's Day.

Wednesday Maypril Showers

Low pressure spinning in from the west sets off bands of scattered showers...and a few thunderstorms Wednesday. Showers get going overnight and Wednesday morning in southwest Minnesota, and move into the Twin Cities by late morning into the afternoon.

-Latest Twin Cities radar

Here's a handle on timing and totals in a graphic depiction from the European Model's "meteogram."

Garden Variety Thunder?

The atmosphere looks just unstable enough for popping a few garden variety spring thundershowers Wednesday. NOAA's best severe weather minds at SPC keep the slight risk for any severe storms well south on Minnesota...but include us in the "general thunderstorm" category.

Tracking Ice-Out: Some big lakes go out Saturday?

There will be ice on some famous Minnesota lakes as you head north for fishing opener this week.

But there is a chance you may be there to watch a Saturday gale take out the ice on your favorite central Minnesota lake this year.

All the big lakes (Leech, Woman, Gull, Whitefish Chain. Mille Lacs) in central Minnesota will likely still have ice when the clock strikes midnight Saturday.

You can track ice out with the MN DNR ice tracker here.

Here's where things stand as of Tuesday afternoon. You can see some of the smaller lakes near Mille Lacs are ice free as of Tuesday PM.

Fishing Opener Forecast 2013:

Friday: Good day to get the boat in.

Mostly sunny. Highs 60s north, near 70 south. Light SW winds.

Friday looks like a great day to get your boat in and tested out on your favorite lake. Sunshine, 60s and lighter winds should make for a great "shakedown cruise."

Saturday: Cold front. Good day to fish from shore or the nearest bar?

Windy and colder with spotty showers. High in the 50s south, 40s north. Gusty NW winds 15-35 mph.

A strong cold front will drop into Minnesota Saturday. That means high winds and big, potentially dangerous waves on the bigger lakes...and ice cold water on the lakes that are ice free.

Indoor "shore lunch" at the cabin or nearest restaurant anyone?

Windy days can break up ice on the big lakes this time of year.

I won't be shocked to see the wind take some of the big lakes like Mille Lacs and Gull out... at least partially on Saturday. With gusty NW winds to 30-40 mph Saturday, don't be surprised to see some big chunks of ice piling up on the southeast shore of some lakes in central Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Minnesota State Attorney General Walter Mondale and Minnesota Governor Karl Rolvaag display their catch on opening day of the 1963 Minnesota fishing season.

Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society

Here's a great summary of Minnesota Fishing Opener weather history from the MN Climate Working Group.

2013 Minnesota Fishing Opener Weather

The cold and cloudy weather (and sometimes snowy) has delayed the progress of spring in Minnesota. Spring phenology is lagging about a week and a half in the Twin Cities and about five weeks behind 2012. Lake ice out has also been delayed. In 2012 the entire state was ice free by April 10. As of mid April this year, lakes in southern Minnesota are losing their ice from about one to two weeks later than the median ice out dates calculated since 1950.

There's been ice on lakes in northern Minnesota in some past years for the fishing opener. The most dramatic was 1950 with lakes still iced as far south as Osakis and Mille Lacs. 1950 was the latest ice out season for the 20th century and many of the late ice out records for lakes with long period of records stem from 1950. In more recent years there have been some lakes father north with ice on them for the fishing opener. These years include: 1966, 1979, 1996, 2008, and 2009.With 2009 there were just a couple lakes in the far northeastern tip of Minnesota still had ice on them.

Minnesota's Fishing Opener weather is typified by partly cloudy to cloudy skies, morning temperatures in the low 40's, and afternoon temperatures climbing to near 70. Three out of four years are free of measurable precipitation. A trace of snow has been reported in northern Minnesota on at least five of the last 64 fishing openers. On at least four occasions, some lakes were still frozen for the opener. Generally there is enough wind to be felt on the face, maybe enough to 'fly' a flag. Weather on Minnesota fishing opener dates is highly variable. 64 years of fishing opener weather data are summarized here to offer a glimpse of what is 'typical' and what is 'extreme'.

Mother's Day: Kinder, gentler and more lake worthy

Frosty start. Sunny & cool but less wind than Saturday. High near 60 south & west, 50s northeast. West wind 5-12 mph.

Mom has done so much for us, and she just keeps giving.

Mother's Day will be the better day this weekend. A big bubble of cool but sunny high pressure will drift overhead Sunday. That mean a frosty start will give way to a sunny milder afternoon with lighter winds than the Saturday gales.

Patience may be rewarded this weekend as Sunday will be the better day to take mom for a walk to take in the explosion of May wildflowers, or get out on your favorite (newly ice free) lake and cast a line.

Sequester may reduce NOAA's twice daily weather balloon launch at some WFO's

This is just what we need.

In an era of poor model forecast performance in the past few months, NOAA is forced to cut back and may reduce weather balloon launches at some USA sites.

Weather balloons collect the raw essential data the feed into forecast models. Garbage in, garbage out. Less data in, less reliable models out.

Details from Sam Stein at Huffpost.

This past Saturday, top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the weather service, proposed eliminating four out of seven night shifts for its hydro-meteorological technician units at that Sterling center. The cutback, the officials noted in an email obtained by The Huffington Post, would help the agency cope with a lingering staffing shortfall. Since March 2013, the WFO in Sterling has dealt with three vacancies (two of which extend back to October 2012), despite having an allotted staff of just five. The unit's general forecaster office, which had helped fill some gaps, would take on some night shift responsibilities as well, according to the email.

Even then, however, the Sterling WFO will no longer be able to conduct weather measurements on four evenings per week.

This may seem like a small sacrifice to make. After all, sequestration was designed to be indiscriminate in its damaging effects. But Sobien warned that the results of cutting back weather measurements could be far more severe than the public realizes. Twice a day across the globe, weather balloons are launched for purposes of generating informed models to help guide everything from flight patterns to disaster preparedness.

"It is going to definitely have an impact," Sobien said of ending those evening weather measurements. "It was so important when Hurricane Sandy was going up the coast. The weather service was launching those balloons four times a day to get better models. So to say, 'Hey, we don't need it,' how can we say that?"

80F Next Week? Big time warm front ahead

Spring temps return in full force next week.

A big time warm front pushes through Monday, and by Tuesday the "thermal ridge" sets up right over southern Minnesota.

If it lines up as expected, we have a good shot at temps in the 80s again by Tuesday.

The Euro is cranking out 28C...or 82.4F next Tuesday for the Twin Cities!

Any remnant ice up north should go fast next week, as the landscape finally starts to look like spring...with hints of early summer next week.

Where's the beach?

Paul Huttner

Spring Whiplash: Record 2012-2013 ice out swings?

Posted at 9:00 AM on May 7, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

A Perfect "10"

I'm reaching deep into the weather grab bag for superlatives to describe today's forecast.

A banner day. A 5-star forecast. Two thumbs up. Spring-a-licious? Maydream.

Okay, enough.

We're enjoying a more typical spring weather pattern this week in Minnesota. Spring usually features ups & downs, and this week will be no exception. The ups this week include high in the upper 70s in southern Minnesota. These are the kind of "downs" we can handle...highs in the 50s by Saturday for a brisk MN Fishing Opener 2013.

In this Updraft we celebrate the 70s, track some mid-week showers, and look at some unusual (and perhaps unprecedented) ice out trends for 2013.

Finally some spring weather we can all enjoy.

77F high temp at MSP Airport Monday (+10F vs. average for May 6th)

8:30pm sunset Friday (Sunset at 8:30pm or later through August 7th)

"Budding Plants" New Moon Thursday (Ojibwe)

Back To "Normal"

This is how May is supposed to be in Minnesota.

Out: Your local weatherman's threats of snow and sleet.

In: Another sun splashed day with highs in the upper 70s.

We'll enjoy more "typical" May weather this week. Temperature swings between the 70s and 50s for highs are common in May. The average high this week in the metro is 67F.

Walkers, bikers and all other outdoor modes of transport are back to the delight of all Minnesotans.

The 70s rule much of Minnesota today with a few 60s up north.

Finally, true spring!

Maypril Showers

Our lazy bubble of high pressure gives way to an advancing front tomorrow.

Look for scattered showers to work east through Minnesota tomorrow, favoring western Minnesota in the morning and eastern MN (including the metro) in the afternoon & evening.

The latest NAM model surface map animation (below) shows an increase in the blue-green blobs over Minnesota as we move through Wednesday.

Rainfall totals should favor between .25" and .50" Wednesday into Thursday morning over the southern half of Minnesota, with some isolated totals to 1" possible.

NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is bullish on rainfall with this system with a wide area of 1"+ rains from Colorado into Kansas & Missouri south through Oklahoma & Texas.

They'll take it. Check out the latest U.S. Drought Monitor below. Fore once, the heart of the soaking rains fall right over the worst drought areas. Well timed and well placed.

Ice Out 2013: Some unprecedented patterns emerge?

2013 is an interesting year for ice out in Minnesota.

Some trends:

1) "Ice Out Whiplash" 2012-2013: Climate Central's Andrew Freedman coined the phrase "Weather Whiplash" back in 2009 to describe our wild swings in weather patterns from one extreme to another. It also describes the remarkable swing in ice out dates from 2012-2013 in Minnesota.

Take bellwether Minnetonka as an example. Last year Tonka was ice free on March 21st...tying the 3rd earliest date in the 134 years of records from the Freshwater Society. The result? A 7 month boating season with boats on Tonka from late March into early November.

This year the ice on Tonka finally gave way on May 2nd, tying for the 3rd latest date on record.

The ice on lake Minnetonka went out 42 days later vs. last year.

Ice out can be considered one measure of the start of spring in Minnesota...and spring came 42 days later this year vs. 2012.

Looking at the data, it looks like 42 days is the biggest year to year swing in ice out dates on record or Lake Minnetonka.

Biggest year-to-year "ice out" swings on lake Minnetonka: (157 years of data)

42 days 2012-2013
35 days 1857-1858
34 days 1858-1859

2) Unusual ice out pattern?

Take a look at Monday's NASA MODIS Terra images over Minnesota.

You can clearly see the ice free (black) lakes in southern Minnesota, and the ice covered lakes north of a Alex-Mille lacs line.

If you look closer at 250 meter resolution map, you can also see some lakes in northwest Minnesota are already ice free, further north than still ice covered lakes in central Minnesota.

Our late season weather patterns kept cold & snow over central Minnesota....with a greater number of sunny & mild days in the red River Valley and the northwest corner of Minnesota. That's one reason the Red River avoided a major flood crest...and it helped the ice go out sooner on lakes that were further north.

No wonder Minnesotans have been restless and scratching our collective heads this spring. We've just endured what may be the biggest case of year to year "Spring Whiplash" ever recorded in Minnesota.

Paul Huttner

March-like weather begins to moderate; Sunday the better day

Posted at 4:39 PM on May 3, 2013 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crops, Drought, Rainfall, Record, Snow, Snow cover, Spring 2013

After launching into the month of May as if it was the start of meteorological winter, conditions will only slowly improve though the weekend. Hard to believe we are in the last month of meteorological spring.

By this date a year ago, the Twin Cities had already experienced 16 days of 70 degrees or greater. Thus far, in 2013, the mercury has reached or exceeded 70 F only five times.

Records are still being sorted out for the snowfall in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. If you are interested in details, you can explore this site from NWS LaCrosse, Wis.

Reports from the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities layout these statistics for Eau Claire, Wis.

Including this historical fact for Eau Claire: The 8.7" of snow that fell on May 2, 2013 was the single snowiest calendar day during the month of May on record.

Here is an amazing temperature record for Rochester, Minn., for May 2:
...COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 2 AND FOR THE MONTH OF MAY...

ON MAY 2...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
ONLY CLIMBED TO 33 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 39 DEGREES IN 1935 AND 2011.

IN ADDITION...THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 35 DEGREES ON MAY
3 IN 1940.

In case you missed it, while the snowstorm was raging and setting records in southeast Minnesota, the Red River crested at Fargo, N.D. The hdyrograph from this afternoon shows the river slowly falling.

The late snow melt, sent the runoff, in large part, into the dry soil and lead to a lower crest than originally predicted. It has been a relatively dry spring in northwest Minnesota, while southeast Minnesota has been getting bouts of significant precipitation.

Here's the precipitation map for our neck of the woods through April 30, 2013.

The amazing story here, I think, is the fact that the Red River crested at Fargo above major flood stage when the region was still considered in a moderate drought!

Soil moisture is more than adequate to our south and may be troublesome for the agricultural community with regard to planting. It is starting to get relatively late in the season and additional moisture in the next 36 hours is not necessarily welcome.

A slow moving weather system will eventually clear our region on Sunday. There is a sharp cutoff to the clouds and dampness through Minnesota as shown on the visible satellite image from 3 p.m. CDT Friday. Unfortunately for those looking for sunshine, this weather system is actually moving the clouds from east to west.

Radar depicts the cold rain. mixed with wet snow at times over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Animation is up to 345 p.m. CDT. Do not use as current radar information.

Heavy precipitation will drenched parts of Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee this weekend. Moisture on Saturday will dampen mainly eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Brightness (do I dare promise sunshine?) appears on Sunday. Temperatures still come up short of seasonal high temperatures that are in the middle 60s in the Twin Cities.

Runoff of the excessive snowfall will result in rises in streams, creeks and river levels into early next week. The water content of the heavy snow was likely on the order of an inch and a half to two inches where the greatest accumulations were measured.

Craig Edwards

Unprecedented: 18"; All time May MN snowfall records fall; 70s return next week

Posted at 6:06 PM on May 2, 2013 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Expect The Unprecedented

Minnesota should have our own weather reality show.

We did it again.

Our latest "Extreme Minnesota Weather Event" has smashed yet another all time monthly Minnesota state weather record.

18"...a cool foot and a half in Blooming Prairie on May 2nd?

The Minnesota Climate Working group is still digging out from the blizzard snowfall of reports, but they believe this is the biggest snowfall ever recorded in the month of May in Minnesota.

Did I mention it's... May?

Digging out from 15.5" in Owatonna
Image courtesy Larry Keltto

Prolific Totals:

This would be a big headline storm for January or March....but for May 2nd it;s downright record smashing.

Here's the map...and the latest set of totals from the Twin Cities NWS.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CDT THU MAY 02 2013

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MAY 1ST AND 2ND SNOWFALL EVENT...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
18.00 BLOOMING PRAIRIE MN STEELE 1145 AM
17.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0130 PM
16.00 1 NE CAMERON WI BARRON 1200 PM
15.50 2 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0730 AM
15.00 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0800 AM
14.70 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0743 AM
14.00 5 NE RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0115 PM
14.00 3 NW SPRING VALLEY WI ST. CROIX 1010 AM
14.00 3 NNW MAIDEN ROCK WI PIERCE 0936 AM
14.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0754 AM
14.00 ELLSWORTH WI PIERCE 0540 AM
13.50 PINE ISLAND MN GOODHUE 1130 AM
13.50 4 SE RED WING MN GOODHUE 0800 AM
13.30 CHETEK WI BARRON 0130 PM
13.00 BARRON WI BARRON 1043 AM
12.50 3 NNW NERSTRAND MN RICE 0830 AM
12.00 HAMMOND WI ST. CROIX 1100 AM
12.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 1100 AM
12.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1015 AM
12.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 0815 AM
12.00 5 NE RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0815 AM
12.00 STOCKHOLM WI PEPIN 0800 AM
11.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0751 AM
11.50 CONGER MN FREEBORN 0553 AM
11.20 4 E NERSTRAND MN GOODHUE 0800 AM
11.00 1 W ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 1130 AM
11.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0729 AM
10.80 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 1200 PM
10.80 5 NE WHEELER WI DUNN 0855 AM
10.50 BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0823 AM
10.00 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 1200 PM
10.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0800 AM
10.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
10.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0757 AM
10.00 BRICELYN MN FARIBAULT 0729 AM
10.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0729 AM
10.00 RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM
10.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0529 AM
9.30 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0130 PM
9.00 4 ESE CLAYTON WI BARRON 1200 PM
9.00 2 W DURAND WI PEPIN 1000 AM
9.00 COLFAX WI DUNN 0815 AM
9.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0800 AM
9.00 4 NW ARKANSAW WI PEPIN 0745 AM
9.00 1 S HUDSON WI ST. CROIX 0733 AM
9.00 1 SW BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0643 AM
8.50 4 S ISLAND LAKE WI CHIPPEWA 0913 AM
8.50 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0140 PM
8.40 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
8.40 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0510 AM
8.30 5 S FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0554 AM
8.20 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0813 AM
8.20 3 SSE HAMPTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
8.00 9 NE WHEELER WI DUNN 1030 AM
8.00 2 SE COTTAGE GROVE MN WASHINGTON 0510 AM
7.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 1130 AM

Snow smashed car in Faribault.
Image courtesy Audrey Kletscher Helbling

Record Storm: All time Minnesota may snowfall record falls

It looks like the 15" to 18" totals in Minnesota have smashed the all time Minnesota state record for snowfall in May.

The Minnesota Climate Working Group expands.

Historic Snow Storm - Southeast Minnesota: May 1-2, 2013

Overview

Over one foot of snow fell on southeast Minnesota on May 1 and 2. The storm snarled roads, closed or delayed schools, and downed power lines. Daily and monthly snowfall records were set in numerous locations. Final data are still to be evaluated, however, it appears likely that the event will go into the record books as depositing Minnesota's heaviest May snowfall totals ever.

Heavy May snow was reported in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. In Minnesota, the heaviest of the snowfall totals topped 14 inches in Steele, Dodge, Olmsted, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties. Snowfall totals in excess of eight inches were reported in Faribault, Freeborn, Mower, Waseca, Rice, Dakota, Washington, and Winona counties.

While May snowfalls are not uncommon in northern Minnesota, heavy May snowfall in southern Minnesota is rare. A quick scan of all historical Minnesota May daily snowfall totals greater than or equal to 3.0 inches indicates that May 1938 may have been the last time any southern Minnesota observer reported snowfall totals of similar magnitude.

Minnesota's record state daily May snowfall total is 12.0 inches. This threshold was reached three times: May 17, 1890 in St. Cloud, May 8, 1938 in Windom (Cottonwood County), and May 3, 1954 near Leonard (Clearwater County). It is likely that a new record will emerge from the May 2013 storm.

Our delayed spring may have provided an unlikely benefit. During a typical spring, leaves on southeast Minnesota trees are fairly well developed by this time. The additional leaf area would have captured more snow, creating more strain on branches, and perhaps amplifying the impact of downed limbs on power lines.

Bizarre and unusual storm:

This was not your typical Minnesota snowstorm.

Several factors lead to an extremely narrow, elongated band of intense snowfall with this system.

1) "Blocking Pattern" = stalled storm

A blocking pattern in the jet stream caused the storm to stall right over eastern Minnesota as a "cut-off" low developed in the Southern Plains.

Image: NOAA

The high pressure "block" over the eastern USA produced a "stuck" weather pattern, which kept heavy snowfall over the same area for more than 24 hours.

2) "Elongated" taffy-stretched storm system

The unusual block produced a stretched out "elongated" storm system with an impressive moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico. That focused intense snowfall in a very narrow band...only 1-2 counties wide in most places.

Image: College of DuPage Weather Lab

3) "Dynamic Cooling" & lack of cold air "advection" behind storm

Meteorology 101: You need a feed of cold air into most winter storms to intensify the system and produce heavy snowfall totals.

Apparently this system didn't get that memo.

This "out of season" May snow event meant temperatures in the 40s behind the storm. It was actually warmer behind the storm than underneath the precipitation shield...where temps hovered in the 30s, just marginally cold enough for snow.

Image: College of DuPage Weather Lab

The cold air in this storm came from above. Intense downdrafts with heavy snowfall pushed sub-freezing air in the 30s down toward ground level from 5,000 to 10,000 feet and higher.

4) Razor Sharp Cutoff: Dry air erodes western edge of snow shield

Typically snowstorms in Minnesota exhibit a gradual reduction in intensity of snowfall on the back side of the storm.

But a strong push of dry air on the system's backside eroded the western edge of snowfall.

Image: WxUnderground

That's why it was snowing in the southeast metro...and you could drive a block to the west and not see a flake.

Remarkable.

Up Next: "Retrograde" swings snow and rain backwards into Minnesota

Usually when storms move through they are carried off to the east by the jet stream.

Not this time.

Our record producing, stuck & blocked weather pattern and cut-off low will spin moisture back into Minnesota from the east Friday.

The good news? What may start as some wet snow early will change to all rain as warmer air feeds into the system.

Spring Returns: 70s ahead again next week

Spring like temps will finally return again next week...as this unusual late season pattern returns closer to "normal."

Image: NOAA via Iowa State University

At this point many Minnesotans say "Bring it on!"

PH

Weather May-Hem: 6" to 15"; Trees down, Power out to 26k; State snowfall record

Posted at 10:06 AM on May 2, 2013 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Major May "Winter" Storm Sideswipes Metro

This is "The Big One" for May snowstorms in Minnesota. At least for May 2nd.

My MPR colleague Mark Seeley tells me Dodge Center's 15.4" just broke the all time sate snowfall record for May 2nd.

Here's the MPR live blog to keep track of the latest snowfall and damage reports as they come into NWS.

Metro: Tale of two forecasts

Drive half an hour east in the Twin Cities today and you will be forgiven if you feel like you entered another time zone.

In the west metro some clouds and a cool breeze. In the east & southeast metro, wind driven wet cement, tree snapping snow that feels like entering a time warp back to March.

11" just across the border near Hudson with snowy conditions on I-94 east of the metro?

13" to 15.5" in Owatonna south of the metro along I-35??

Deep snow blankets Owatonna this morning.
Image courtesy Larry Keltto

I hope MNDOT kept a few plows in ready condition into May.

In this Updraft we count up the inches and document a remarkable May snow event for a relatively narrow slice of southeast Minnesota, the eastern metro and western Wisconsin.

Last night's last minute eastward shift of about 30 miles spared the central metro core from significant snowfall, and from breaking any snowfall records at MSP Airport. Just don't tell that to folks in Cottage Grove, Owatonna, Red Wing, Hastings and Ellsworth who are digging out from 6" to um... 15 inches of heavy wet snow on May 2nd.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Snow smashed car in Faribault.
Image courtesy Audrey Kletscher Helbling

Snow continues east:

The band of heavy snowfall continues to run from southeast Minnesota, right up into the east metro into western Wisconsin. These areas can expect several more hours of heavy snow into this afternoon.

-Here's the latest Twin Cities radar loop.

Razor's Edge: Remarkably sharp cutoff on metro snow

I've seen a lot of storms in nearly 30 years of forecasting weather in Minnesota.

I've never seen a storm quite like this one...especially in May.

This was not your typical, textbook Minnesota winter storm. Not even close. Atmospheric conditions were just right for a very narrow, SW to NE oriented band producing extremely heavy snow overnight. The band of heavy snow was only about 2 counties wide. Dry air cut into the western side of this unusually elongated system...and effectively wiped out snowfall production in the western and central metro.

Check out the remarkably sharp cutoff on the systems back edge which waffled over the eastern metro overnight.

Image: WxUnderground

No gradually lighter snow to flurries zone here. It was literally all or nothing...from a wet smack to not a flake in the sky in a city block.

Remarkable.

Prolific snowfall totals: Metro near miss

We just missed the central core of the heaviest snowfall band in the heart of the Twin Cities.

But as expected they got smacked along an Albert Lea- Owatonna-Red Wing-Hastings-Cottage Grove-Ellsworth-New Richmond zone.

Check out some of the eye popping snowfall totals coming into the Weather Lab via Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
901 AM CDT THU MAY 02 2013

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE MAY 1ST-2ND SNOW STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.50 2 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0730 AM
15.00 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0800 AM
14.70 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0743 AM
14.00 BARRON WI BARRON 0754 AM
MANY TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
14.00 ELLSWORTH WI PIERCE 0540 AM
12.50 3 NNW NERSTRAND MN RICE 0830 AM
12.00 5 NE RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0815 AM
12.00 HAUGEN WI BARRON 0815 AM
12.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0623 AM
11.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0751 AM
11.50 CONGER MN FREEBORN 0553 AM
11.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0729 AM
10.80 5 NE WHEELER WI DUNN 0855 AM
10.50 BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0823 AM
NUMEROUS POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN.
10.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0757 AM
TREE DAMAGE REPORTED. THOUSANDS WITHOUT POWER
EARLIER THIS MORNING.
10.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0729 AM
10.00 BRICELYN MN FARIBAULT 0729 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0651 AM
10.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0529 AM
9.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0720 AM
9.00 COLFAX WI DUNN 0815 AM
9.00 1 S HUDSON WI ST. CROIX 0733 AM
9.00 1 SW BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0643 AM
9.00 3 SE RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0620 AM
8.40 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0510 AM
8.30 5 S FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0554 AM
8.00 2 SE COTTAGE GROVE MN WASHINGTON 0510 AM
POWER OUTAGE AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED.
7.50 4 NW ARKANSAW WI PEPIN 0646 AM
7.50 NEW RICHMOND WI ST. CROIX 0529 AM

Trees down & Power out:

As you can see from the reports, the heavy wet snow is taking down tree limbs and power lines in Red Wing, Cottage Grove and other locations under the heavy snow band.

As of 10:00 am 26,623 customers are without power. Here's the Xcel Energy outage map.

Paul Huttner

Unprecedented: Rare May snowfall could break records; Rain to snow today

Posted at 10:01 AM on May 1, 2013 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Headlines:

3.0" all time May snowfall record for Twin Cities

-Rain mixes with..then changes to all snow in the metro later this PM & evening.

-Snowfall coverage and intensity picks up tonight

-Overall metro snowfall range looks highly variable, less west & heavier east

-Snowfall range of 2" to 6"+ (heaviest east metro) is likely by noon Thursday

-Morning model runs suggest some 6" to 12" totals possible in a narrow band southeast of the Twin Cities from near Owatonna to Red Wing & Hastings to Menomonie and northward toward Rice lake & Hayward.

-Snow tapers off from west to east Thursday AM

"Expect The Unprecedented"

I've used that tag line recently in broadcasts and for some of my talks about climate change to groups in Minnesota. It seems to fit like a glove this week.

We are on the cusp of what still looks like a rare, even unprecedented May snowfall event in Minnesota.

Radars are lighting up as snow is already flying west, and the dreaded "rain-snow line" will move east through the metro as the day wears on.

By tonight your almost green lawn will once again turn a shade of white, and moderate to heavy snow will accumulate.

In this Updraft we move past the latest bout of "weather denial" to and count up the inches in what could be a record breaker for the Twin Cities.

Is it June yet?

Nuts & Bolts: Latest on incoming winter storm

Winter Storm Warnings are flying once again for the metro. The latest version paints a swath from Albert Lea through the Twin Cities to Rice Lake and Hayward.

Here's the verbiage from the Twin Cities NWS.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE... ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE... BURNSVILLE...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT... RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT... BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE... BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS... PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE

354 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE IN PERIODIC BANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION: 6 TO 9 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY QUICKLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

Some of you have noticed NWS still issues many of their advisories in ALL CAPS. Maybe they "yell" on the internets to block out the sound of everyone yelling back as the next winter storm warning is posted...in May.

It pays to have a sense of humor in Minnesota.

Relatively narrow band of heavy snowfall?

This time it looks like the south & east metro may win the snow lottery.

The best lift and moisture...and heaviest snow band seems to be setting up either side of a Fairmont-Owatonna-Red Wing-Menomonie-Rice Lake-Hayward line tonight.

I'm not sure I buy the overall metro range of 6"-9" of snow just yet. It looks like the heaviest band of 6"+ snowfall potential should be relatively narrow and favor the east metro....and there are indications snowfall totals may drop off dramatically in the west & northwest metro...where only 1" to 3" may fall.

The NAM model lays out the tight "snowfall gradient" which favors higher totals in the east metro...with snowfall dropping off quickly as you move toward the northwest metro.

The overnight GFS & NAM runs backed off projected snowfall totals considerably...from well over 6" for MSP Airport into the 2" to 4" range. That may be a reflection on the trend to shift the heaviest bands slightly east...and not on overall snowfall intensity. There is always run to run variability...but let's see what the next set of model runs brings.

The Euro model "meteogram" show the change from rain to snow today in the metro.

Up North: 6" to 12" possible

The same story plays out in Duluth and northwest Wisconsin tonight. The Duluth NWS highlights the heaviest snowfall...up to 12" in northwest Wisconsin with totals rapidly dropping as you move west toward Duluth.

Time to run the Birkebeiner in May?

Record breaking May snowfall event?

It will only take 3.1" to break the all time May snowfall record for the Twin Cities.

Snow at Cross Lutheran Church, (Present Day Maplewood)
May 12, 1946
Courtesy the Maplewood Area Historical Society

Here's what the Minnesota Climate Working Group has to say about rare May snowfall events.

Snow that falls in May is typically a novelty. The ground is usually too warm by May to allow much of an accumulation. Looking at past records for the Twin Cities, a trace of snow falls during the month of May fairly frequently, with the last windswept flurries reported on May 1-2, 2005. If the snow manages to accumulate it is generally under an inch and mostly on grassy surfaces. The most recent measureable Twin Cities snow event was 0.3 inches on May 5, 1991.

About once every 30 years or so, there is a snow event that is enough to cover newly greened lawns and coat budding leaves. The last time there was a snow event in May greater than an inch in the Twin Cities was on May 2, 1976 with 1.2 inches. The most that it has snowed in May in a single event for the Twin Cities is three inches. This has happened on three occasions: May 20, 1892, May 1, 1935 and May 11-12, 1946.

Bottom Line: Rain will change to snow today from west to east. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times through tonight.

Snowfall rates could reach 1" to 2" per hour tonight.

Overall metro snowfall accumulations of between 2" and 6"+ are likely by midday Thursday. Some 6"+ totals are possible, especially in the east metro. This morning's model runs suggest some 6" to 12" totals possible in a narrow band southeast of the Twin Cities from near Owatonna to Red Wing & Hastings to Menomonie and northward toward Rice lake & Hayward.

PM rush hour should be sloppy today, but temps will fall below freezing tonight and that could mean an icy commute Thursday AM.

Stay tuned as we tweak the totals and coverage today.

Paul Huttner

1st May snow in 22 years? Potentially "historic" May snowfall possible Wednesday night

Posted at 6:41 PM on April 30, 2013 by Paul Huttner (8 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Weather Denial

Yes Amy, somebody must have hacked my twitter and Updraft accounts.

This can't be happening again right? It's MAY!

The "Spring of 2013" appears to be the wintery gift that keeps on giving. I'm laughing to keep from crying this spring at the Weather Lab.

Our next weathermaker is moving in with another shots of rain and yes....snow.

**I want to see another round of models runs overnight and Wednesday morning, but the suite of half a dozen of the more credible models we look at all seem to point in the same direction. Accumulating snow is a real possibility in the metro Wednesday night into Thursday morning.**

There. I said it.

In this Updraft we'll walk through some scenarios for rain and snow in the next 48 hours, and search for a light at the end of the tunnel.

Did I mention 70s are in the forecast again by early next week?

3.0" largest May snowfall on record in the Twin Cities

22 years since the last accumulating snow in the metro (May 5, 1991)

37 years since the last 1" snow in the metro (May 2, 1976)

Nice run of 70s:

Let's start off on a positive note. Our 1st run of "true spring" weather in 2013 has been glorious. We've enjoyed 5 straight days of 70F+ since Friday, including the season's 1st 80F Sunday (81 degrees).

Medicine Lake "Ice Chandeliers" put on a show

The warmer weather is breaking up ice on area lakes. Under certain conditions, the ice can crystallize into long pillars and break up like galss.

Check out this great video from Nadalie Thomas.

An April to remember: (Or forget?)

Even with our run of 70s, we'll close the books on April more than -6F vs. average.. April is the 3rd consecutive colder than average month in the metro.

Since October we seem to have begun a new temperature trend in Minnesota with colder than average temps 4 of the past 7 months in the Twin Cities and Minnesota.

April -6.6F (preliminary)
March -5.6F
February -1.8F
January +1.3F
December +3.7F
November +3.4F
October -1.4F

Overall temps are running about -1F vs. average the past 7 months in the metro.

The 17.9" of snow we shoveled this month goes in the weather books as the 3rd snowiest April on record.

Next Up: Potentially historic May snowfall

I am still hoping for changes in the overnight and early Wednesday forecast models, but all signs point to at least some accumulating snow in eastern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Radars are lighting up with rain overnight into Wednesday morning. During the day on Wednesday, colder air works east through Minnesota...gradually changing rain to wet snow.

By Wednesday evening the rain snow line will work through the metro...and a narrow band of heavy wet snow will be in progress...most likely setting up either side of a Fairmont-Mankato-Twin Cities-Hayward line.

Here's how much slush the NAM model thinks will fall from the sky.

The Canadian (GEM) model paints a narrow sliver of accumulating snow that favors the eastern metro...with little accumulation in the west metro and central Minnesota.

With warm ground and strong May sunlight...accumulations will be difficult during daylight hours. But once the sun sets, heavy snowfall rates should be enough to overcome warm ground...once you get the 1st layer of snow down.

Here's' the interesting language from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW. CONTRARY TO POPULAR BELIEF...THESE RATES WILL OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GROUND WILL NOT FREEZE...SO THE SNOW WILL CONTINUALLY BE MELTING FROM BELOW.

THIS...TOGETHER WITH COMPACTION WILL PRODUCE SNOW TOTALS MUCH LESS THAN A SIMPLE ADDITION OF THE HOURLY RATES WOULD INDICATE. WITH THAT SAID...ONE MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THE COBB OUTPUT FROM THE NAM SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM FAIRMONT...TO MINNEAPOLIS...AND RICE LAKE WI. THE SREF 30.09 PLACES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL...WITH PLUMES SHOWING MEAN TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES.

HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THESE TOTALS ARE TOO HIGH FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE....AND ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE THURSDAY MORNING...DO NOT FEEL THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES.

Well that's comforting!

I'm inclined to agree with NWS that snowfall totals will not reach some of the higher model output so far. But with only 3" needed to break the all time May Twin Cities snowfall record, it's certainly possible that is in jeopardy by Thursday.

Bottom Line: Expect rain to increase overnight into Wednesday. Rain will change to snow from west to east Wednesday...to all snow by Wednesday evening. Accumulations...and more "shovelable" slushy snow are quite possible by Thursday morning.

Stay tuned as we tweak the forecasts Wednesday.

Paul Huttner

Weather Smorgasbord; Thunder, rain, hail & S....s....snow?

Posted at 8:46 AM on April 30, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Weather Smorgasbord

Anyone old enough to remember "The Jolly Troll" on Highway 12 in Golden Valley back in the 70s?

The kitschy scandinavian buffet was filled with a variety of foods from salads to swedish meatballs. Pretty good stuff if you're an 8 year old.

But I digress.

Our weather pattern the rest of this week has smorgasbord written all over it.

Ping pong ball size hail in Silver Bay at 7:30 am? That's a cold front.

Rain and some thunder rumbles across northern Minnesota today, with a chance in the south as a strong cold front sweeps across the state.

The first accumulating May snowfall in 22 years by tomorrow night & Thursday?

Priceless.

Thundery Start Up North:

Strong, even severe thunderstorms greeted Minnesotans along the North Shore this morning.

DLH: Silver BAY [Lake Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of ping pong ball size (M1.50 INCH) at 07:35 AM CDT

The wave causing the morning thunder moves east today. Drier air in southern Minnesota will limit T-storms...but a small chance remains this afternoon.

NOAA's SPC has laid out a narrow band of "slight risk" later today for Iowas and Wisconsin.

Cold front today:

As the potent cold front sweeps through today, temps will fall and winds will kick up from west to east across Minnesota.

The front blows through the metro around lunchtime...but the coolest air lags a bit so you may not really notice the chill until this evening.

Temps crack the 70s one more day in the metro today before the front kicks in.Then the bottom falls out tonight.

Rain...to snow:

The system looks cold enough to produce snow in eastern Minnesota and the metro by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Forecast models are all over the place as usual... the GFS says maybe 1" to 3" of slush on your lawn. The NAM and Euro are going gonzo...with several inches of sloppy snow by Thursday evening.

Warm ground and a higher May sun angle should limit snowfall potential...but temps may fall just below freezing for a few hours early Thursday AM. At this point I just can't rule out significant snowfall accumulation for the metro and eastern MN/western Wisconsin Thursday morning.

Stay tuned as we tweak that forecast later today and Wednesday.

Snow at Cross Lutheran Church, (Present Day Maplewood)
May 12, 1946
Courtesy the Maplewood Area Historical Society

May Snowfall: More than you wanted to know

Even in Minnesota, snowfall in may is relatively rare.

Here's the scoop from the MN Climate Working Group.

Historic May Snow Events in Twin Cities

Snow that falls in May is typically a novelty.

The ground is usually too warm by May to allow much of an accumulation. Looking at past records for the Twin Cities, a trace of snow falls during the month of May fairly frequently, with the last windswept flurries reported on May 1-2, 2005. If the snow manages to accumulate it is generally under an inch and mostly on grassy surfaces. The most recent measureable Twin Cities snow event was 0.3 inches on May 5, 1991.

About once every 30 years or so, there is a snow event that is enough to cover newly greened lawns and coat budding leaves. The last time there was a snow event in May greater than an inch in the Twin Cities was on May 2, 1976 with 1.2 inches. The most that it has snowed in May in a single event for the Twin Cities is three inches. This has happened on three occasions: May 20, 1892, May 1, 1935 and May 11-12, 1946.

Warmer again next week:

The "cut-off" upper low gradually spins out of here this weekend.

All systems appear to be a go for a return to warmer weather next week.

June now; "Maypril" later; 30 degree temp crash ahead; 70s return next week

Posted at 6:51 PM on April 29, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Atmospheric Speed Bumps

The road to spring this year is paved with atmospheric "speed bumps." This one is a biggie.

Monday's June preview was lovely. If only we can get "stick" this year. That may happen next week.

Tuesday brings another mild day early on, then a cold front will remind us it's not June just yet.

Our weather patterns are "changeable" in the next 7 days. The overall trend is sharply colder, and yes you may need to find that jacket you put into storage for a few more days.

In this Updraft we track the incoming cold plunge, and talk about the potential for some heavy soaking rains...and snow flakes.

The good news? The 70s return next week.

June-Style Warm Front?

It's an interesting weather set up for late April.

Can you feel the slight increase in humidity?

A June style warm front is pushing north. Temps will hold steady much of the night...and dew point "advection" is causing dew points to rise into the upper 50s in southern Minnesota.

Check out the GOES 1km visible satellite image from early Monday evening. I've overlaid the dew point lines (isodrosotherms) to show the incredible contrast between June like 50s in southeast Minnesota and wintery teens up north.

Warm fronts like to get active at night...and there is a slight chance we'll see and hear a few scattered T-Storms pop up over southern Minnesota... and even in the metro overnight into Tuesday morning.

Tale of 2 seasons?

It feels and looks like spring in southern Minnesota now. But have you been to the been up the Gunflint Trail lately?

There is still deep snow...as much as 10" to 20" in the woods in northeast Minnesota above lake Superior and into the BWCA.

Ice Out: "Latest" records falling

Lake Keller in St. Paul set the record for latest ice out Saturday. Calhoun in Minneapolis went out Sunday evening, tying the latest on record.

More records will fall in the coming days. Get the latest from the MN DNR here.

I do think many lakes in northern Minnesota will still have ice as of late next week when the 2013 MN Fishing Opener rolls around. Check with your local resort about ice conditions if you are heading north.

Monday's NASA MODIS Terra 1,000 meter shot over Minnesota clearly shows where snow and ice are history...and the still frozen big lakes up north with deep snow cover in the forests.

Next Up: Temperature roller coaster

Tuesday starts mild....then features a powerful cold front that will drop temps 30 degrees in the next few days.

S....snow too?

Okay don't freak... don't go on me.

But there will be enough cold air....and enough moisture to produce some snow flakes in Minnesota this week. It's juts a question fo where & how much.

The models are all over the place, but most suggest at least the potential for a brief slushy coating on newly exposed lawns.

The Euro continues to be the most aggressive (and irritating) on snow potential.

From snow to 70s to snow in the span of just over a week?

Welcome to Minnesota.

Stay tuned as we see what reality brings this week.

Don't Panic: 70s return next week

All indications are the 70s will return next week...and the Fishing Opener may trend midler by the weekend of May 11th.

PH

Spectacular Monday; Record late ice outs; Chilly front later this week

Posted at 8:49 AM on April 29, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

72F high temp at MSP Airport Friday
75F Saturday
81F Sunday

Celebration

Last weekend was nothing short of a celebration for many Minnesotans.

Street scenes resembled a cross between Snoopy's "happy dance"... and "The Walking Dead"... with stunned & dazed Minnesotans stumbling around newly ice free streets in disbelief at the good weather fortune.

It actually took me awhile to get oriented to standing outside in the warm sun Friday evening celebrating the sudden spring with my neighbors.

This week brings more nice weather, and a major speed bump in our transition to "Spring 2013."

In this Updraft we track the dreaded "cut of low" that will brings changes this week. The good news? Our spring warm up kicks right back into high gear next week...and 70s are already on the horizon again.

I can take it.

Instant June:

Talk about a long winter's nap.

It feels like I went to sleep in March and woke up in June.

The weekend weather was nothing short of spectacular...necessary tonic for spring craving Minnesotans.

Sunday's high of 81F brings the years 1st 80F reading, on April 28th. Last year we did it on March 17th.

Structure:

Sunday's warmth even kicked off a few garden variety, June-like thundershowers late in the day.

Check out this shot I snapped of the back end of one of the thundershowers late Sunday afternoon.

These sunday T-Showers behaved...but had we had a little more "shear" with spinning winds with height and moisture they may have approached severe limits. It's a good reminder that severe weather season is close at hand, and it won't be long before future spring storms will bring hail and high winds.

Something to prepare for.

Record late ice out:

Talk about weather whiplash.

Last year Minnesota lakes posted some of the earliest "ice outs" on record in Minnesota.

This year...some of the latest.

Lake Minnetonka Sunday

Keller Lake in St. paul went our Saturday April 27th, the latest on record since folks there started keeping track in 1999.

More metro lakes will go out today and tomorrow.

If Lake Minnetonka makes it to Wednesday (May 1st) it will tie for the 4th latest ice out on record...and come within 4 days of the latest.

You can keep track of ice out this week with the MN DNR's Ice Tracker here.

"A "cut-off low is a weatherman's woe" - Anonymous

"Cut Off Low" brings a return to unsettled & chilly weather

Monday brings my kind of cold front. We'll enjoy another spectacular day with highs near 70 in the metro...about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday.

Tuesday turns stormy and unsettled as a stronger front moves in. This is the leading edge of a "cut off low" that will dive in from canada, then separate from the main jet stream and spin over the central USA later this week.

Call it an atmospheric speed bump in our road to spring...but the chilly weather with days mostly in the 40s will last into Friday. We should gradually warm up into the 50s this weekend.

The system is likely to dump some heavy 2" to 3" rainfall totals over southeast Minnesota and parts of Iowa and Wisconsin this week.

Eurotrash....snow?

The European Model is the most aggressive with the notion of the cut off low's cold pool bringing snow this week. The latest version insists on some flakes... maybe even steady wet snow/slush by Friday.

Stay tuned...

Bounce back: 70s return next week:

All indications are our late week chill will give way to a return to spring like weather next week. temps should again push 70F for most of the week according to the GFS runs.

Another warm up just in time for Minnesota's Fishing Opener 2013?

Bring it!

PH

Instant Spring: 70s arrive; Sunday thunder threat? Maple sap boon

Posted at 5:46 PM on April 26, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Suddenly Spring

It's amazing what sunshine and 70s will do for Minnesotans after a long winter.

People are pouring into the streets and parks this weekend. The sound of rakes scratching away a winter's worth of gunk on newly exposed matted lawns has replaced the sound of shovels scraping icy walkways.

Was that a leaf blower I heard today?

Our spring fling continues this weekend. Look for more neighbors emerging from 6 months of hibernation this weekend.

The 70s will hold this weekend in Minnesota. I won't be shocked to see a few local bank and backyard thermometers in southern Minnesota. and maybe even the metro touch the 80F mark by Sunday afternoon.

Nice.

With all that warmth can a the season's 1st thunder threat be far behind? Of course not.

Look for a few stray thunderstorms to billow in the afternoon sky Sunday, with a bigger outbreak looking more likely by Tuesday.

From snow to thunder in a week?

Welcome to Minnesota. Land of 10,000 weather extremes.

Instant June:

It's almost too good to be true...and too fast. Our latest version of weather whiplash comes courtesy of the season's 1st real warm front.

Why not get the season's 1st 60F and 70F out of the way all at once? No easy, gradual spring warm up here. Go big or go home.

We hit 71F at MSP Airport Friday. Let me type that again...We hit 71F at MSP Airport Friday. Ah...That felt good.

We'll bask in more 70s this weekend in southern Minnesota...with 60s up north. Temps may come dangerously, blissfully close to 80F in southwest Minnesota Sunday.

Sunday Thunder Threat?

There are 2 seasonal transitions in Minnesota.

1) Winter and Road Construction.
2) Winter and Severe Weather Season.

You knew it wouldn't be long.

A weak cool front will cut into our balmy Sunday air mass as it drifts lazily southeast Sunday afternoon.

With temps in the upper 70s, and strong April sunshine there will be just enough instability to fire off a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon & evening. It looks like the best chance will be from the metro north. Don't be surprised if you see some strange looking towering cumulus clouds in the afternoon and evening sky Sunday.

Moisture looks limited, but there is about a 40% chance a few scattered T-Storms will rumble through eastern Minnesota including the metro Sunday afternoon and evening.

With limited moisture I'm not too concerned about severe weather...but winds will twist enough with height that I can't rule out a strong storm or two.

SPC has not "risked" Minnesota, but is recognizing the potential for "general" T-Storms.

On Tuesday, a stronger more potent cold front approaches Minnesota from the west.This looks like the better more organized threat for strong storms and potentially the 1st big severe weather outbreak of the season in Minnesota.

Temps should stay mild...at or near the 70 degree mark into Tuesday.

Next Week: Colder days ahead?

Breaking this too you very...very gently. But the trend I identified a few days back regarding a potential cool down late next week still looks likely.

Models still disagree on the magnitude of the cool off, but the Euro is gung ho on spinning a deep "cut-off" low over Minnesota by next Thursday.

If that happens, temps will plunge...and the "S-Word" could creep back into the forecast next Thursday.

Stay tuned...and enjoy the 70s this weekend. They'll be back.

Maple Sap 2013: A good year!

One of the best things about the Weather Lab is that we have the best group of neighbors on the planet.

It's a certainly a unique delight to have cool neighbors who make the most of what Minnesota's weather has to offer like Howie & Wendy Bennis.

Photos Paul Huttner - MPR News

Howie & Wendy run the local "Sugar Shack" in Deephaven. On spring days, you can see faint wisps of smoke drifting from the roof vent,and smell the sweet maple nectar on the boil.

Our instant summer last March virtually shut down maple syrup production. By contrast, our nice slow warm up this year means 2013 was a pretty good year for sappers, and the sweet nectar has been flowing strong.

I asked Wendy about how this year's weather affected maple sap production.

(My questions in bold, her answers in italics)

Hey Wendy & Howie:

I'd like to put together a blog with some of the photos I took at sugar shack...and looking for any "stats" you have about this season.

Thanks for anything you can send along!

Paul

-How much total syrup? About 80 gallons.

-Sugar content? Usually is higher at start of the season, so a bit over 3% and now running at about 2%. About 2,900 gallons of sap collected

-Best year since??? Is a good year, for sure, especially compared to last year, but not necessarily our best year.

-Still running? Collected the last sap of the season today - pulling the taps tomorrow.

-Any other interesting notes about this season? For only having about 150 taps out (compared to a typical 250 - 300), we are very happy with the volume produced. And we're pretty much all sold out!

We recently had the pleasure of a visit to the shack, and thought I'd share a few photos of the remarkable process of turning raw maple sap into delicious liquid gold.

Hangin' at the Sugar Shack

From tree to bucket

Howie tends the raw product

Sap boiler at work

On the boil up close

Finished product - sweet amber nectar

Pancakes anyone?

Paul Huttner

Climate Cast: Chinese confirm local warming and emissions link

Posted at 3:15 PM on April 26, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Every Thursday MPR meteorologist Paul Huttner joins Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit for "Climate Cast" on MPR News Stations to talk about the latest research on our changing climate and the consequences that we're seeing here in Minnesota and worldwide.

These days it seems like we are witnessing climate changes unfold right before our very eyes.

It's not our imagination.

The nature of our seasons is changing. Spring blooms come earlier. Summer is more humid with a documented increase in extreme localized flash flood events...and more frequent droughts. Fall lingers longer. Lakes freeze up later. Winters are trending shorter and noticeably, measurably milder. New plants are able to thrive in Minnesota's milder climate.

We're all living witnesses to rapid climate changes in our lifetime. This is no longer your grandparents "Minnesota."

In 2013 at MPR we're devoting more coverage to the science behind and the growing effects of our changing climate in Minnesota and around the globe.

Smog envelopes the Chinese Coast.
Image: NASA Earth Observatory

You can hear me discuss the week's top climate stories in our new "Climate Cast" every Thursday morning at 9:50am with Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit.

Climate Cast for April 25th, 2013

Floods in Fargo and droughts in China. Observers in two such far-distant locales trace at least some of their troubles to the same cause: climate change.

In China's case, though, scientists are claiming an unusual distinction. They say they are able to detect local warming from local pollution. If they're right, it's the first time that such a cause and effect have been observed within a single country.

China, which is building more and more coal-fired power plants to fuel its economic development, spews more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than any other country. A clear link between its energy practices and climate change could help create the conditions for political action.

The flood forecast in Fargo-Moorhead, meanwhile, has eased a bit in recent days. And the heavy snow and rain this month should bring some relief from the drought that has gripped the region for so long. For farmers, though, conditions remain far from ideal.

"The downside is that the farmers that had poor yields due to drought last year," said Steve Buan, hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, are "flooded out and they can't get their seeds in a timely fashion, [and] may suffer from a lower yield due to the limited nature of what they can plant on areas that are flooded this spring."

MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joins The Daily Circuit to discuss the climate issues of the day. Here is an edited transcript of the conversation:

Weber: You sent along a really interesting study that links global warming in China to stuff being done in China. I think that's interesting.

Huttner: Great question. If our climate keeps evolving like it has in the Midwest and Upper Midwest, the long-term stressors are going to reduce lake levels. We've got as much as perhaps a foot less snowfall overall projected for the Midwest and Minnesota by the year 2050 or 2070 and that means less runoff as well. As we see these climate changes, one of the regional effects is pressure on the Great Lakes.

Climate Cast resources:

Want to know more about climate change? Here are few quick links to credible climate change sources.

-Read the Minnesota Public Radio primer on Climate Change

-NOAA NCDC's "State of the Climate" report

-AMS Statement on Climate Change

-NASA key evidence of climate change

-Great summary of Modern Day Climate Change from SUNY-Suffolk

-Minnesota Climate Working Group climate change resources

-Mark Seeley's Weather Talk

-Common climate change myths

-Climate change in the news from Climate Central

-More coverage from The Yale Forum on Climate Change and Media

Paul Huttner

Sudden Spring; 70F ahead; Warmest air in 6 months; Ice-Out records?

Posted at 6:49 PM on April 25, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

About Time

If patience is a virtue, Minnesotans must be the most virtuous people on the planet.

Spring is finally here, for real. A sting of successively midler days lies ahead, and the 1st 60s and 70s of the year appear to be a lock.

On Thursday's the weather lab goes mobile and visits the MPR studios for the Climate cast. Suddenly I'm the most popular guy on the planet. Smiles and compliments from co-workers? From "weather villain" to "weather hero" in 48 hours. Welcome to the life of a weatherman.

In this Updraft we track the warm up, and look at how the thaw is progressing. We'll also keep an eye on the chances for a stray thunderstorm late Sunday and what could be a stalled line of thunderstorms with heavy downpours next Tuesday.

In the meantime the doppler is on auto-pilot and the grill is ready.

Up Escalator:

Sunglasses? Check. Shorts? Maybe I better get some sun on these legs first.

These are the kind of maps and charts Minnesotans have been waiting for.

Our warm up comes in an escalating series of steps the next few days. 60s, 70s.....possibly pushing 80F in southwest Minnesota?

One interesting note about our warm up. In addition to warmer days in the 60s & 70s, it looks like our nighttime lows will hover mostly above freezing for the next week.

Looking back, that hasn't happened since Sep 30th to October 4th...in well over 6 months.

Nice!

Rain chances by Tuesday?

There is a slight chance we may pop a few showers & T-Storms Sunday PM & evening n Minnesota. The better chance comes next Tuesday, as a strong frontal boundary may stall over eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The good news? Most of the rain looks to fall east of the Red River Valley, and that could help ease flood concerns there.

Frost Going Fast:

Check out the soil temperature profile at depth from the UM Waseca Research Station.

The frost is gone now...and soil temps are in the 50s a couple of inches down.

Ice Out: "Top 5" Latest on Tonka this year?

March 21st - "Ice Out" on lake Minnetonka last year
April 13th - Average ice out date for 'Tonka
May 8th - Latest ice out on record (1856)

There is some open water around the edges of metro lakes now, but a farily thick layer of ice still floats the main lakes.

Here's a look at Wayzata Bay on lake Minnetonka Thursday.

Freshwater Society founder Dick Gray has compiled detailed records of ice out on Lake Minnetonka since the 1850s.

The latest date for ice out on Tonka is May 8 way back in 1856! Last year the ice was gone by March 21st. It looks like we may come within at least a week of challenging the latest ice out on Tonka this year.

If the ice make it to next Wednesday May 1st, it will tie 1965 for the 5th latest ice out on record.

In southern Minnesota many lakes are ice free as of this week according to the Minnesota DNR.

Up north, there is still snow...and as much as 30" of ice on the lakes. This spring may come close to challenging some of the later ice out dates on record in Minnesota.

Hey...is my boat still hiding under that tarp?

Paul Huttner

Spring Fever; From drought to flood in 3 months; South metro now "drought free"

Posted at 8:02 AM on April 25, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Finally, Spring

Today is one of those days we wait for all winter in Minnesota.

A frosty morning fades rapidly under strong April sunshine. By late afternoon, a southerly breeze builds. Something feels different about this wind. By afternoon, the chill of the past 5 months eases. You can almost taste the scent of distant budding plants blowing in on the Iowa breeze.

In this Updraft we look ahead to the big warm up on the way. We'll also look at how a major change in our weather pattern over the past 3 months has catapulted Minnesota from drought to flood.

Now, where are those golf clubs?

Good News: Drought shows remarkable improvement in Minnesota

This is the good side of our Clipper parade of the past 3 months.

The drought has taken a major hit in Minnesota and the Mississippi River Valley. Gone are the worries from last fall about the worst drought since the 1950s. Entire states along the Mississippi & Ohio River valleys have soaked up drought busting rain and snow this winter and spring.

Southeast Minnesota and even the southern metro to Dakota and Scott counties are now "drought free" as of this morning's updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

It's a good news story...nothing short of a minor meteorological miracle in the past 3 months.

White leg alert: Warmest temps in 6 months ahead

Prepare for some slightly disturbing sights this weekend as your pasty, cargo short clad neighbors emerge after 6 months in storage.

All indications are our incoming mild southerly flow will push temps to 70F in the Twin Cities this weekend. If that happens, it will be the first time we've managed to hit 70F since October 21st...just over 6 months ago.

The temperature run up kicks into high gear Friday with what looks like the 1st 60F in 5 months in the metro. The metro should enjoy 5 straight days in the 60s & 70s.

Thunder Ahead?

A strong cold front looms by next Tuesday, and that could trigger a shot of rain and potentially strong thunderstorms. The first significant severe weather of the season next Tuesday? It's a possibility.

I'm a little concerned about the possibility of downpours on the Red River Watershed next Monday & Tuesday. An inch of rain could add a foot to the updated flood forecast on the Red next week.

Behind the front, there are signs of a significant cool down later next week...so enjoy the 70s while they're here. While I'm thrilled at the prospect for warmth this weekend, I'm just not ready to say yet that we're out of the woods on cool wet days just yet this unforgiving spring.

From drought to flood in 3 months:

This is why it's just not credible to make sweeping predictions about what the next big weather story will be 6 months down the road.

Last fall many were warning that the big weather story of Spring 2013 would be drought. Shortly after that, a persistent jet stream pattern began to send a series of storms into the Southern Plains. That pattern gradually and methodically worked north up the Mississippi River Valley this winter and spring.

Now the Mississippi, which was closed to barge traffic in some sections due to low water last fall, is in flood.

That's a remarkable transition. And it's one that seems to be more common... the weather pendulum swinging from one extreme to the next.

Climate Central documents the extreme swings in Upper Mississippi runoff in the past 6 months.

Not only is the Midwest being pounded with heavy rain, late-season snow, and snowmelt, it is a stark contrast to the extreme drought that hit the region last summer. The graph below shows how huge this swing is. Over eight months, runoff in the Upper Mississippi River Basin has jumped from way below average to extremely high - including near record levels in some locations. In August 2012, drought had left runoff in the bottom 10 percent. It was dry, even for the summer. Now, water levels are in the top 95 percent. Obviously April numbers are not final yet, but many locations have already broken their record rainfall for the month.

We still have some catching up to do with the "soils drought" in Minnesota. But things are looking much better than they did last fall.

Dodging a bullet for Red River flood prospects?

The NWS North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen released a slightly optimistic updated flood forecast for the coming crest on the Red River and tributaries.

Thirsty soils soaking up some water from melting snow pack, and a timely window of dry weather may be good news for avoiding a possible "flood of record" on the Red this year.

Issued: 1213 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE RED RIVER AT FARGO.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 37.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* CREST IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BETWEEN 38 AND 40 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW.
* SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN.
* RAPID WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND RAPID RISES IN RIVER LEVELS.
* A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE BOTTOM CREST RANGE OF 38 FT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...SOIL INFILTRATION...AND THE OFFSET IN
TIMING BETWEEN THE RED RIVER AND WILD RICE RIVER CRESTS.
* THE TOP CREST RANGE OF 40 FT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND A 1-2 INCH RAINFALL NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 36.3 FEET, FARGO...CLEARANCE HEIGHT OF 1ST AVENUE BRIDGE.

My MPR colleague Dan Gunderson has more from the banks of the Red River in Fargo/Moorhead.

MOORHEAD, Minn. -- The National Weather Service has revised its flood forecast for the Red River at Fargo-Moorhead, saying the river will likely crest at 38 feet to 40 feet if the region remains free of heavy rain.

Meterologist Greg Gust says the river could rise to 40 feet if the southern portion of the Red River Valley receives a 1 inch or 2 inch rainfall.

"Just recognize what's been going on around the central and northern plains these last couple of weeks," Gust said. "Every three or four days there's something big moving across. One of them is bound to come up here eventually."

Gust said there is still uncertainty about how much water will be absorbed by soil.

"If you get heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday that means that water will head to the river as the crest is coming toward Fargo and therefore push that crest up another foot or more," Gust said.

The weather service predicts the river level will rise by about 20 feet over the next week.

A more optimistic forecast on the Red, and a big warm up this weekend? Could be the best of both worlds.

USA 2013: Coolest start in 20 years?

Here's a story that won't surprise you.

By some measure in the USA this is the coolest spring in 20 years, at least if you're counting the ratio of record highs vs. record lows.

Climate Central passed along this tidbit Tuesday.

We all know it's been a cold spring, so this week we are focusing on temperatures - record daytime highs compared to overnight lows to be exact. This is the first time in 20 years (since 1993) that we have actually seen more record lows than record highs in a calendar year. So far in 2013, that ratio of highs to lows is 1:1.2 (a.k.a 5:6).

The records ratio is one of the strongest signals of climate change. As the globe slowly warms, record heat is regularly outpacing record cold and record highs are outnumbering record lows. That has happened nearly every year for the past two decades. During 2012, which is the hottest year on record in the U.S., the ratio of highs to lows was 5:1. This implies that the Earth is not balancing out and that temperatures are on the rise.

To some this will not fit with the overall "narrative" of viewing every season and weather event through the lens of climate change.

Keep one thing in mind though. The USA has been the "coolest place on earth" so far in 2013. The majority of the rest of the globe is running hotter than average. So far it's the 8th warmest year on record globally Jan-Mar.

Just because what you see out your window looks cold...remember you can't see the entire planet from your living room window. NASA/NOAA & international satellites and observing platforms can.

Enjoy the warm up!

Paul Huttner

'Thundersleet' today, 'spring' on Thursday as we near 60 degree record mark

Posted at 7:30 AM on April 24, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Positivity

Things are looking up in the Weather Lab these days.

After one more bout of potentially winter-flavored weather later this afternoon and evening, the spring of 2013 will finally kick in starting Thursday.

This time it even looks like it might stick around, for at least a few days.

In the meantime we endure one more shot of potentially mixed precipitation later today as April attempts to hurl one more wintery insult our way: a potential rainy "thundersleet" storm around suppertime tonight?

With 70 degrees in the forecast this weekend, we can handle this.

I think.

In this Updraft we track one last wintery gasp this evening, and looks forward to the warmest days in 5 months.

Nov. 22 - Last 60 degree day in the Twin Cities (5 months ago)
Oct. 21 - Last 70 degree day in the Twin Cities (6 months ago)

More on "Thundersleet"

Our sunny morning may turn into an "interesting" weather evening.

The last incoming cold front for a while brings strong upper level support late today. The result will be strong "Upward Vertical Velocity" (UVV) between about 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Translation? There will likely be enough buoyancy or "lift" in the atmosphere overhead to produce a few thunderstorms in southern Minnesota and the metro as the front sweeps through around dinnertime.

Surface temperatures may reach the upper 40s or even 50 degrees in a few spots. With much colder, sub-freezing air aloft there is a chance that thunder may be mixed with sleet and small hail later today. How nice!

While we likey won't be warm enough to generate severe storms, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center found enough reason to circle southern Minnesota in the "general T-Storm" area today.

Get used to looking at this map the next few weeks. There is a small chance for our first severe weather watches of the season Sunday night into Monday. Looking at the maps with our lingering chill and rapid warm up, this has the potential be a more active spring than last year.

2013: Year of "Impact Based Warnings" in Minnesota

NOAA will trot out the new impact based warnings for all central region states this year including Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Dakotas.

The new, graphic "enhanced wording" is designed to get your attention.

Here are the details from NOAA.

60 degrees: Better late than never

Okay, so we have never failed to reach 60 degrees in Minnesota since the last ice age. But some of us were beginning to wonder.

The last time we hit 60 degrees was 5 months ago, on Nov. 22. And no, that's not even close to a record in Minnesota.

This year it looks like we may come within 3 days of the latest 60 degrees on record in the metro.

If we hit 60 degrees as forecast on Friday, it will tie for the second latest date on record.

The details from the always timely and excellent MN Climate Working Group. (Click for a bigger view)

April 25, 2013: The day spring began for real?

Some years in Minnesota there are clear, abrupt dates of seasonal transition.

This year, it looks like we may be able to say spring began for real on Thursday, April 25.

Tomorrow our winds will shift into the southwest, and a sustained flow of midler air will blow in from the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. That should boost temps well into the 60s and even 70s this weekend in Minnesota.

Check out the balmy NWS forecast numbers for this weekend in the metro.

All (and I do mean all) the forecast models are pushing the 70 degrees isotherm into the Twin Cities this weekend.

The large scale signals from the Arctic Oscillation are much more positive than in recent weeks. Still, there are some signs it may flip back more negative (cooler) later next week.

While the upper air pattern looks radically different (warmer) this weekend, there are some signs we may cool off (possibly significantly) again later next week.

Stay tuned as we see how the forecast models evolve on that one. In this unforgiving spring of 2013, I'm just not ready to say spring is here to stay for good -- just yet.

In the meantime this weekend: Enjoy!

Paul Huttner

Suddenly Spring; Rapid snow melt; Drought thirsty soils easing flood threat?

Posted at 6:35 PM on April 23, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Forecast: Better Weather News

Finally some good weather news to write about.

After one more chilly day with a light wintry mix Wednesday, the weather maps look blissfully quiet, and warmer in the next week. Our "Sudden Spring" of 2013" kicks in starting on Thursday and ramps up this weekend.

In this Updraft we look forward to the mildest stretch of weather in 6 months, and an improving Red River Flood forecast.

Maybe, just maybe 'Meteorologist" in Minnesota is about to become a much more coveted profession in the next 2 weeks?

"Expect the Unprecedented"

On MPR's Climate Cast last week and Saturday at the Science Museum of Minnesota's Earth Day Event I talked about how our changing climate system seems to be causing our weather patterns to get "stuck" ...often for months at a time.

Our wacked out climate system has produced yet another series of unprecedented, record setting events in Minnesota. This time it's been an unprecedented late season snow blitz.

The Duluth NWS has the details on how our late season snowfall surge has rewritten the record books in The Northland.

Adding Up: With 129.4" this is now the 3rd snowiest winter on record in Duluth!

Going Fast:

If you blink, or took an extra long nap it's possible you could have missed our latest snowfall. Did that really happen last night?

The sun is as high in the sky over Minnesota as it is on August 19th.

Here's what strong direct late April sunlight can do to 4" to 6" of snow cover on April 23rd.

Before: Here's the NASA MODIS Terra shot this morning showing a fresh snow cover over southern Minnesota.

After: By late afternoon this COD Weather Lab GOES 1km vis shot shows most of the snow gone near the Twin Cities.

Welcome to Minnesota: Snow to 70F in under a week?

Call it our own version of weather whiplash.

Last year we enjoyed our 1st 60F on March 6th. This year, Friday looks like the day.

We should record another milestone by Sunday with our 1st 70F temps likely in the metro.

Slightly better Red River forecast?

The "flash melt" will spike river leves this week. But the drought of 2012 may be sucking up some of that moisture in the melting snow before it can run off into our rivers.

NWS Hydrologist Steve Buan told MPR Tuesday why there may be cautious optimism that the Red may avoid the dreaded record crest that looked more likely two weeks ago.

But the delayed spring means the sun is at a higher angle and can more quickly thaw the soil, National Weather Service river forecast expert Steve Buan said.

"If we've thawed 12 inches of the soil, about 30 percent would be field capacity," Buan said. "So that would be about 3.5 inches of water in that layer of soil."

That means about 3 inches to 3.5 inches of the water in the melting snow are soaking into the dry soil rather than running off into rivers.

Engineer Tom Richels said that corresponds with the change he sees when he tests the water in the snowpack in Wilkin County. The most recent snow measurement he took was two days ago.

"Where I took it there was 4 inches of snow and that had about 1.5 inches of water in it," Richels said. "About two months ago that same area had a good 5 inches of water. "

Good news for Red River Valley residents, but major flooding is still likely on the Red next week.

Meteorologists: "We're #29!"

Career Cast just came out with their "Top 200 Jobs" list for 2013. "Meteorologist" came in at #29?

Low stress? Maybe in San Diego.

Have they looked at the doppler or scanned my email & twitter account lately?

Oh wait, "Broadcaster" ranked # 184 out of 200.

That makes more sense lately. Even with the "rigors" of the past few weeks, I love my career and I wouldn't trade it for anything.

Hey at least as "Meteorologists" we finished above "Human Resources Manager" as a profession. (No offense intended to MPR or any other HR managers out there, but babysitting the corporate "adults" can't be an easy job!)

Hey MPR: Can I get one of these?

This is the year for local Twin Cities media promotions departments to spring for the advertising your local weatherman at Target Field.

Check out the ad for my former WGN-TV weather colleague, mentor and all around great guy Tom Skilling at the White Sox ballpark in Chicago.

Thanks to @darrenrovell for passing this along.

PH

Instant Spring: From snow to 70F this weekend; Red River on the rise

Posted at 9:10 AM on April 23, 2013 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Instant Spring of 2013

Enjoy the fresh wintery scene in Minnesota today. It does a disappearing act this week.

Like the visiting uncle who stayed too long this time, winter finally hits the road this week.

But not before leaving its mark in the record books.

Duluth has shoveled and plowed 51" of snow this April. That's the most ever in April...and the most in any month on record in Duluth. This is now the 3rd snowiest winter on record in Duluth with a whopping 129.4" so far. Ouch.

Like flipping a switch, our weather pattern changes for the warmer later this week. Much warmer.

The rapid warmup will melt snow fast, and send rivers surging higher in a hurry.

All eyes will be on the Red River by this weekend as water levels rise rapidly.

The good news?

You will be tempted to fire up the grill and pull out the golf clubs by Saturday.

Finally.

17.6" April snowfall at MSP Airport (3rd snowiest April on record)
66.9" so far this winter at MSP Airport

Snow done, sun next

It's over.

Yes, we may see a few more renegade snow squalls late Wednesday, and maybe even a slushy coating in some areas. But the really big accumulating April snow blitz is over.

Mark it down.

Our latest snow blitz brought down several inches of fresh wet cement snow again. Here's the list of snowfall totals for the Twin Cities and Duluth.

Expect the Unprecedented: Snowfall records fall:

Welcome to another unprecedented Minnesota weather event. This time it's Duluth.

The city at the Head of the Great Lakes has plowed a whopping 51" of snow this April.

Not only is that the snowiest April ever on record, it's the snowiest month ever in Duluth. In April. Not January or March. April.

It's also the 3rd snowiest winter on record with an impressive 129.4" so far.

The Big Melt: Major warming trend kicks in later this week

It's great to see the sunshine today. The sun is as high in the sky today as on August 19th. Today will be a study in just how quickly that "summer" sun intensity can melt a fresh pile of April snow.

Wednesday looks like the last day you may curse a chilly breeze and a few snowflakes in the air. A weaker clipper may spawn a mix of rain & snow showers Wednesday PM & evening. A slushy coating is possible Wednesday evening.

On Thursday, our winds shift into the southwest, and the real warm up begins.

The snow should be history in the metro and southern Minnesota by Thursday PM.

Once the ground is bare, the vast majority of the increasing sun intensity will go toward heating the air.

We have a shot at our 1st 60F reading Friday in the metro...and temps will soar well into the 60s and possibly hit 70F this weekend.

Finally. Our 1st 60F comes about 1 month later than average this year. Last year we hit 60F on March 6th!

Here to stay?

The Euro models keeps temps in the 70s...and even pushing 80F as we head into next week. The GFS wants to cool us off a bit early next week, but still into the 60s.

Either way I just don't see a return to cold & snow any time soon. Hopefully for another 6-7 months?

River Watch: Red River rising

All that snow has to go somewhere. Most of it will flow into rivers & lakes.

You could see this one coming a mile off.

With 5" to 10" of liquid...or Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) ready to wash into the Red River watershed, river levels will spike in the next week.

The NWS forecasts a 16 FOOT rise in the Red River at Fargo by next Monday, just 6 days from now.

The red looks likely to crest the 1st week of May or so...at or near the all time record level of 40.8 feet.

All eyes on the Red River in the next week, and all hand on deck filling sandbags in Fargo and surrounding Red River towns.

PH

Buckle Up: 4" to 8"+ likely tonight; "Instant Spring" & 70 by Sunday?

Posted at 8:36 AM on April 22, 2013 by Paul Huttner (16 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Cover Your Eyes

Say WHAT?

Look away now if you're squeamish, or suffering from Post Traumatic Winter Stress Disorder. The rumors are true.

Our next (and last?) major "winter storm" in spring is taking direct aim at the Twin Cities tonight. It's already snowing heavily in South Dakota.

Early morning sunshine in the Twin Cities gives way to developing rain this afternoon, and then to all snow...heavy wet cement snow again later today and tonight.

Winter Storm Warnings are out for a narrow but potent system that looks to center right over the Twin Cities metro toward Duluth and northwest Wisconsin.

(Yes, NWS still calls them "Winter" Storm Warnings in "spring" to best convey the type of weather we expect.)

By the time we wake up Tuesday, the system will be winding down, but not until another "plowable" almost too wet and heavy to be shovelable snow graces our driveways, streets and lawns.

The "Spring of our Discontent" continues for a few more days. The Minnesota Twins 3rd rainout/snowout already this season? Count on it.

The good news? In an abrupt upper air pattern change is coming by this weekend. Our 1st 60s...and possibly 70s are on the way by Saturday & Sunday.

And yes, this time I really mean it.

14.1" April snowfall at MSP so far
4th snowiest April on record
7.8" snowfall needed for snowiest April on record
-9F temps vs. average so far this month

Please sir, may I have another:

It's as if we did something really, really wrong to deserve this "spring" in Minnesota. Or is Mother Nature just balancing out the scales of weather justice for our amazing record warmth last spring?

Either way, like it or not, get ready for the next April Snow Blitzkrieg.

The System:

A rapidly developing, quick hitting low jetting from the southwest USA around a lingering dome of chilly high pressure. It's the perfect setup for a late season heavy snow storm aimed right at Minnesota & Wisconsin.

Timing:

It's already snowing heavily in South Dakota.

Rain spread across southern Minnesota and into the metro around lunchtime. As colder air works in rain will change to heavy, wet, wind driven snow later this afternoon into tonight.

Snowfall Totals:

The models are consistent. The track of this storm looks perfect to lay the (relatively narrow) heaviest band of snow right over the Twin Cities metro into northwest Wisconsin.

The Twin Cities should see a big snowfall range of between 4" and 8"+ by Tuesday morning.

Heavy snow with total close to 1 foot are likely in northwest Wisconsin.

Quick Hitting:

The storm will be intense for several hours tonight. I can't rule out a clap of "thunder snow" with heavy snow bursts up to 1"+ per hour at times.

The storm will exit quickly Tuesday morning, but damage may be done for AM rush hour.

Instant Spring? Major upper air pattern change brings warmth this weekend

All...and I do mean all forecast models agree that the same deep, wavy upper air pattern that brings out storm tonight will shift enough to bring a rapid warm up to the Upper Midwest by this weekend.

We should enjoy the season's first 60s...and possibly even 70s this weekend.

And yes...I really mean it this time.

Strap in & buckle up. We're in for another a wild weather ride this week!

PH

Broken Spring: Storm smashes April snowfall records; Desperately Seeking 50F

Posted at 5:54 PM on April 19, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

#1 - Snowiest April on record in St. Cloud with 22.0" so far
#1 - Snowiest April on record in Duluth with 41.7" so far
5th snowiest winter on record in Duluth with 120.3" so far
4th snowiest April on record in Twin Cities with 14.0" so far

Image: snowcrystals.com

Uncharted Territory

We're living in uncharted weather territory these days.

Our late season snow blitz is smashing snowfall records. Duluth is now digging out from the snowiest April on record. The Twin Cities is at #4.

In this Updraft we count up the inches from the latest megastorm, tally mounting snowfall records and search for brighter milder days.

The sun will come out Saturday. One of these days, our "broken spring" will finally arrive.

One of these days.

7.2" "official" snowfall total at MSP Airport from latest storm
10" in Deephaven and Delano in west metro
12" in Buffalo & St. Cloud
15" near Elk River in the NW metro

17.7" at Duluth NWS
22" in Two Harbors
23" in Babbitt

A little perspective please?

This perplexing and extreme "spring" weather pattern has been a head scratcher for meteorologists all Minnesotans who are desperately seeking springtime.

You know frustration levels are high when listeners start hurling profanity laced tweets at your local weatherman.

Really?

Hey, I'm just the messenger? Yeah, right.

Would it be better if I lied about what's coming our way? Okay, don't answer that.

I suppose a little perspective is in order here.

Yes, "spring" as we know it is broken this year. We are on weather overload. I get it.

The "weather natives" are restless. Even hostile.

Tornado sirens blaring in the middle of yet another unwelcome April snowstorm? That's enough to drive even the most winter hardy Minnesotans over the edge.

But at least our neighborhoods are not in lockdown, with tactical police teams going door to door searching our homes for a dangerous killer.

Our hearts go out to the people of Boston this weekend. Over the years I've played hockey with and against many Boston boys and I can tell you this, they are strong and resilient and will bounce back from this tragic week.

After the downright crazy events in Boston this week, dealing with a remarkably snowy April in Minnesota doesn't seem like such a crisis.

The Little Storm That Could:

Let's face it, this storm was everything it was advertised to be, and more.

The storm intensified, and slowed right over Minnesota. That kept the pinwheel of rotating snowfall right over Minnesota, and produced some prolific snowfall totals.

Nearly 2 feet of snow in Babbitt on April 18th? Wow.

If you think we have it bad in the metro, think about what folks "up north" are dealing with this "spring."

Here's a look at the prolific snow totals up north.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
113 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
23.00 5 N BABBITT MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
22.00 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0822 AM
22.00 5 N TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0515 AM
21.40 ASKOV MN PINE 0606 AM
21.10 6 ESE BOULDER LAKE MN ST. LOUIS 0900 AM
20.00 12 S SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0740 AM
20.00 LAKE NICHOLS MN ST. LOUIS 0455 AM
19.50 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 1130 AM
19.30 5 SE SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0953 AM
19.30 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON 0645 AM
19.20 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0630 AM
19.10 2 W HIBBING MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
19.00 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0800 AM
18.20 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0355 AM
18.00 BRULE WI DOUGLAS 0838 AM
18.00 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0725 AM
18.00 EVELETH MN ST. LOUIS 0630 AM
17.70 DULUTH NWS MN ST. LOUIS 0700 AM
17.30 2 W SHESHEBEE MN AITKIN 0713 AM
17.30 KEEWATIN MN ITASCA 0700 AM
17.30 7 N MCGREGOR MN AITKIN 0600 AM
17.00 10 S EVELETH MN ST. LOUIS 0604 AM
17.00 ALBORN MN ST. LOUIS 0452 AM
17.00 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0452 AM
16.80 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
16.30 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0535 AM
16.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS 1110 AM
16.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 1024 AM
16.00 OULU WI BAYFIELD 0715 AM
16.00 1 NNW GRAND PORTAGE MN COOK 0700 AM
16.00 FLOODWOOD MN ST. LOUIS 0652 AM
16.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0625 AM

Twin Cities: 3" to 15"??

If I issued a metro snowfall forecast of 3" to 15" would you take me away in a rubber suit?

Reports into Twin Cities NWS show a huge variation in metro snowfall from east to west.

That's because warmer air managed to mix more precip as rain and lower snowfall totals in the eastern metro. The heaviest snowfall bands rotated over the west metro Thursday.

Here's the list:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL TOTAL FOR EACH LOCATION. THERE MAY BE MORE DAYS ADDED TOGETHER IN COMBINATION...ENABLE TO ARRIVE AT THE FINAL NUMBER...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
15.00 2 SSW ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 1000 AM
14.00 MORA MN KANABEC 1000 AM
13.50 6 NNE BIG LAKE MN SHERBURNE 1100 AM
13.50 3 W RICE MN STEARNS 1100 AM
13.50 3 ESE RICE MN BENTON 1000 AM
12.30 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1023 AM
12.20 1 E MOUND MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
12.10 1 W WOODLAND MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
12.00 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 1100 AM
12.00 BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 1000 AM
12.00 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 1000 AM
11.80 2 NW CHASKA MN CARVER 1000 AM
11.50 1 ESE CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1100 AM
11.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 1100 AM
11.00 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1013 AM
11.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 1000 AM
10.80 4 NE WATERTOWN MN WRIGHT 1100 AM
10.70 CRYSTAL MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
10.60 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 1047 AM
10.30 HAMBURG MN CARVER 1000 AM
10.10 1 W ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1000 AM
10.00 2 ENE PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
10.00 2 ENE PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
10.00 3 N CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1100 AM
10.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 1000 AM
10.00 MINNEAPOLIS DOWNTOWN MN HENNEPIN 1000 AM
9.80 ST CLOUD STC AIRPORT MN SHERBURNE 1000 AM
9.80 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 1000 AM
9.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 1000 AM
9.60 RICE MN BENTON 1000 AM
9.50 STACY MN CHISAGO 1100 AM
9.50 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 1000 AM
9.40 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 1000 AM
9.30 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 1000 AM
9.30 2 E JORDAN MN SCOTT 1000 AM
9.10 CHANHASSEN NWSFO MN CARVER 1056 AM
9.00 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
9.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 1100 AM
9.00 WILD RIVER STATE PARK MN CHISAGO 1000 AM
9.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 1000 AM
9.00 1 S CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1000 AM
8.80 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 1000 AM
8.50 3 SSE HAM LAKE MN ANOKA 1100 AM
8.50 6 WSW ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1100 AM
8.40 1 NNE MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
8.40 U OF M ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1047 AM
8.00 ST AUGUSTA MN STEARNS 1209 PM
8.00 1 SW LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 1100 AM
8.00 6 WNW SPICER MN KANDIYOHI 1100 AM
8.00 1 WSW GOLDEN VALLEY MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
8.00 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1100 AM
8.00 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1100 AM
8.00 2 NNE MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
8.00 7 SSE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 1100 AM
8.00 NEW PRAGUE MN SCOTT 1000 AM
8.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 1000 AM
8.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 1000 AM
7.80 1 SSW SWANVILLE MN MORRISON 1100 AM
7.50 3 ESE EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
7.50 2 WNW RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
7.40 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 1000 AM
7.30 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 1100 AM
7.20 MINNEAPOLIS MSP AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 1000 AM

Snowfall records smashed:

This storm put several Minnesota locations over the top for new April snowfall records.

This is the snowiest April on record in St. Cloud with 22" so far.

In th Twin Cities we're #4 in April snow so far.

In Duluth this is now the snowiest April on record, and the 5th snowiest winter with a staggering 120.3" of snow...so far.

Next Up: Welcome sunshine

It was good to see the sun Friday afternoon at the Weather Lab.

We'll enjoy a repeat performance Saturday morning as a bubble of cool but sunny high pressure drifts over Minnesota. Clouds will gradually increase Saturday afternoon.

The next weather system will slide in Sunday. This one looks much, much weaker than our last blitz. Look for some scattered mixed precip early Sunday...trending toward rain showers by Sunday afternoon.

Temps should crack the 40 degree mark in southern Minnesota.

Saturday: Science Museum of Minnesota celebrates "Stewardship and Science" for Earth Day 2013:

I'm stoked to be part of the SMM's Earth Day 2013 program Saturday.

I'll be giving the keynote on Minnesota's Changing Climate. What will Minnesota look like in 2040? Place your bets.

Here's a preview of the big Earth Day extravaganza at SMM on April 20th.

Hope to see you there.

Mixed bag again early next week:

This may come with a plug your ears warning if you just can't take it anymore.

Monday into Tuesday may feature another weather system that has the potential for a mix of rain-sleet snow once again.

Too early to say how this will pan out, but right now it does not look anything like what we saw Thursday.

Stay tuned.

Models insist: Warming trend late next week?

I know...we've heard it before.

I'm not buying the Euro notion of 64F in the metro next Friday...but I think there's a strong chance we'll see 50s by late next week.

Weather finger & toes crossed.

PH

Rain-sleet-snow picks up today & tonight; 3" to 6" Metro range likely by AM

Posted at 11:17 AM on April 18, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Main Event this afternoon & tonight

It's here!

All weather eyes are pointed southwest today as the "main body" of our latest "Wintril" storm moves in.

Precip coverage...and intensity is increasing again this afternoon and tonight. It's mostly snow in western Minnesota, and a mixed bag of sleet...changing to all snow from west to east today in the metro.

Snow is spreading from west to east across the metro this afternoon. "Sleet Storm" conditions will produce accumulations of sleet in some areas today.

Sleet has changed to snow as of 11:15am at the weather lab in the west metro.

Fresh sleet and snow accumulations on the "Weather Deck" in the west metro at 11:30am.

How much?

Solutions still center around a range of 3" to 6" of heavy wet wind whipped snow tonight for the metro, with heavier totals favoring the NW metro.

The heaviest snow band appears lined up just west of the Twin Cities. Look for the potential for 6" to 10" along a Redwood Falls-Hutch-Annandale-St. Cloud-Mille Lacs-Duluth line.

Here is the latest NWS wording for areas northwest of the metro.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...
GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...
CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...GRANITE FALLS...
OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...REDWOOD FALLS...
NEW ULM...ST. PETER

457 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* TIMING: A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION: 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS BY T0NIGHT.

Only in Minnesota: Statewide Tornado Drill today... in a snow storm

Did I mention this is severe Weather Awareness Week in MInnesota?

I didn't think so. Hard to focus with all the snow talk...but severe weather is coming this year. By all indications it's going to be a much more active season than last year...when 37 tornadoes skipped across Minnesota.

Here's the schedule for today's statewide tornado drill.

I covered the story this week about the new use of smart billboards in the metro to broadcast tornado warnings to metro drivers.

Here's more in an email I received from Maria Baca with Hennepin County Emergency Management.

Billboards to give drivers larger-than-life tornado warnings

Motorists driving into a tornado warning in Hennepin and Ramsey counties' will receive roadside alerts, thanks to a new collaboration between county emergency management divisions, ClearChannel Outdoor and the National Weather Service.

A new system, tested in downtown Minneapolis today, will make use of ClearChannel Outdoor commercial digital billboards to warn drivers of a tornado warning in their vicinity.

The goal of the partnership is to offer early warning and new training to drivers, who may be unable to hear tornado sirens inside their cars, or who may not be listening to radio stations that would warn them of a safety threat. The concept takes advantage of drivers' natural conditioning to absorb the content on roadside signs.

Motorists and their passengers have proven to be a difficult audience to reach when severe weather strikes. According to the National Weather Service, 9 percent of the people who were killed by tornadoes in the United State between 1985 and 2008 were in their cars.

From now on, a National Weather Service-issued tornado warning will trip a targeted system to override commercial programming, starting in 15-minute increments, which can be extended if necessary. The company owns 22 of the billboards in Hennepin County and nine in Ramsey County.

Eventually, the hope is to expand the alerts to all 47 of the billboards around the metro area.

Hennepin County Commissioner Mike Opat saluted the partnership, and predicted that the signs will be a powerful tool to reach motorists.

"I've been struck by how many of these signs I see on my commute up and down I-94," he said. "I certainly notice them, and I think other drivers do too."

Noting the traditional difficulty alerting drivers to severe weather, Hennepin County Emergency Management Director Eric Waage called the billboards another tool to reach them.

"They'll be able to become aware of what's happening around them, and take actions that could save their lives," he said.

Especially in areas that have a lot of foot traffic, such as the Eighth Street and Hennepin Avenue intersection downtown, where they were tested, the billboards also could prove important in the effort to channel pedestrians to safety.

ClearChannel Outdoor is providing the service at no cost to the county.

The Company's president, Susan Adams Loyd, said the partnership is a logical step after previous collaborations with the city of Minneapolis to spread the word of Snow Emergency declarations, and with the State Patrol to encourage seat belt use.

Yet Another Wintery April Attack

Looking at the weather maps these days is like being an air traffic controller at MSP. Just guide the next storm in.

This tweet into the Weather Lab may best sum up our high level of "seasonal denial."

teandoranges, I too feel your pain. I'm getting tired of hearing myself talk about our unbearable weather these days.

Our latest Winter Storm Warning includes the northwest half of the Twin Cities metro.

Look for a mixed bag Thursday in the metro...gradually changing to snow from west to east as the day progresses.

Right now I expect the best chance for 6" in the northwest metro and beyond....with lesser totals in the southeast metro by Friday morning.

All Aboard: Minnesota's Storm Train

The next in our series of April "winter" storms arrives Thursday.

The NAM model below depicts one of the facets of this system as it moves through in pulses...or waves as the center of low pressure works in.

Moisture Rich:

The Gulf of Mexico is wide open over the Midwest for a change the past two months. That means copious rainfall totals on the warm side of this system. Drought is definitely dwindling east of the Mississippi.

Outbreak: Moderate severe risk into Illinois

Your friends in St. Louis or Chicago will need to keep a wary eye on the sky in the next 24-36 hours. SPC highlights the risk, which may include some dreaded "long-tracked" tornadoes.

Minnesnowta:

The system will gradually cool Thursday as the heavier precip moves on.

That means the rain snow line will move slowly east Thursday.

I expect mostly snow Thursday west of the metro along a Worthington- Redwood Falls-Willmar-St. Cloud-Duluth line.

A mixed bag of sleet and rain in the metro will trend toward all snow by Thursday evening. We could see some sleet accumulations Thursday. A million tiny "ball bearings" underfoot? Watch it driving and waking around.

Main snow event Thursday night into Friday morning:

For the metro, it looks like the main event for heavy, wet, wind whipped snow will be Thursday night and Friday morning.

Right now my best estimate is for a general 2" to 6" across the metro from SE to NW. The best chance for 6" appears to be in the northwest metro including Maple Grove, Buffalo, Rogers, Elk River and toward Annandale.

We're still in forecast mode with this system...so changes are likely depending on tonight's...and even Thursday AM model runs.

70" in St. Cloud this winter?

Here's an interesting (and somewhat disturbing) tidbit. If St, Cloud picks up another 8" with this system (not out of the question) it will be one of the top 5 snowiest winters on record.

Twin Cities NWS elaborates.

INTERESTING CLIMATE SIDE NOTE...IF CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST AT STC OF AROUND 8 INCHES COMES TO FRUITION...THIS WOULD PUSH ST. CLOUD OVER THE 70 INCH MARK FOR SNOWFALL THIS WINTER AND INTO THE TOP 5 FOR SNOWIEST WINTERS OF ALL TIME!

Folks in Duluth must be wondering if it will ever... ever stop?

Ramblings of a weather mad newsman & radio host:

You know my good friend Tom Crann as the host of All Things Considered on MPR each weekday between 3pm & 6:30pm. Simply put, Tom is the best. But did you know Tom likes to "doodle" to prepare for our weather hits each day?

He tweeted his latest version today.

Whatever gets you through our extended winter Tom.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Things are still looking better for some long overdue 50s in the metro by late next week.

The GFS runs are still insisting on 60s by the weekend of April 27th.

Hang in there!

Stay tuned as we tweak the new numbers Thursday.

PH

Sun today? Next wintery "slop storm" Wed-Thu; Tornado warnings on video billboards in metro

Posted at 9:20 AM on April 16, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Winter Endurance Test

How about some good weather news first off today. The sun may actually pop out today.

In other news, our next wintery slop storm is already on the maps for tomorrow and Thursday.

This "spring" in Minnesota has gone a little beyond "keeping out the riff-raff" don't you think? (And BTW, just who are the riff-raff anyway?)

Our next bout of our extended winter hangover rolls in Wednesday. This one is looking somewhat similar to last week's rain & snow event. Another wintery mix with periods of rain, perhaps some ice...and accumulating snow.

Model solutions vary widely again (why should this storm be any different) from a couple inches of slush int he metro to several "plowable" inches.

Ugh factor X 10 this month.

It's already the snowiest April in 11 years in the metro. It looks like we may add to the 6.8" that's come down so far.

In the blog today we search for glimpses of sunshine, track the next incoming slop system, and talk about a new way you'll see tornado warnings on metro roads this year.

Is it May yet?

Minnesota Fishing Opener 2013?
(Thanks to Gary Botzek for a good sense of humor and for passing this along...I think)

Searching for sunshine:

If you see a bright object in the sky today please don't panic.

Skies are brightening across parts of Minnesota today. The GOES 1km visible satellite shows a big clearing patch in southwest Minnesota...that will spread eastward today.

Some sun today? What a concept.

Spring...in Kansas City:

Believe it or not....spring is happening not too far south of Minnesota. Thanks to MPR weather spy Bill Stein of Highland Park for passing along this tidbit and hopeful photo from his trip to Kansas City this week..

Paul,

Feel free to use these pix to show readers that spring is in full glory down the road a piece in Kansas City. Amazing how things changed from full spring (lawns being mowed) in KC to greening in Des Moines to brown in northern Iowa/southern Minn to snow cover in Faribault. There is hope!!

Bill

New severe weather awareness twist: Tornado Warnings will appear on metro video billboards this year

Believe it or not, it's severe weather awareness week in Minnesota.

This year you'll see a new twist on metro freeways....for the 1st time tornado warnings will be broadcast on those big video billboards in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties as they are issued.

Hennepin and Ramsey County emergency managers are teaming up with Clear Channel to display the warnings to drivers this year. You may be rocking out to your favorite iPod or CD tunes, but if you pass a billboard you'll be alerted visually.

Here are some details I received from Maria Baca with Hennepin County Public Affairs.

Hi Paul.

I represent Emergency Management in the Hennepin County Public Affairs office. I wanted to make sure you saw the media advisory we sent out about a weather-related event tomorrow.

We are partnering with Clear Channel Outdoor, which has offered to preempt commercial content on its digital billboards anytime the National Weather Service issues a Tornado Warning. The idea is that if a driver is listening to commercial radio, or his or her own music, talking to the kids or enjoying the hum of the road, he or she may not hear the sirens indicating dangerous conditions. At this event tomorrow, members of the media will see a test of three of those electronic billboards, from the roof of City Center downtown, and hear from some of the major players about why it's important.

Starting this year, those warnings will be visible on billboards all over Hennepin and Ramsey Counties.

Cheers!

Maria Elena Baca
Hennepin County Public Affairs

That's a good thing...another link in the chain of multiple safety nets that will alert some drivers to the possibility of an approaching tornado. Remember the lessons from the deadly Joplin tornado in 2011, take action at the first indication of severe weather then seek additional confirmation and information.

Many people died in the Joplin tornado because they waited to take action after the 1st notice of the approaching, deadly EF5 tornado.

You may see a test of this feature around 10am today if you're driving past one of the 3 big video billboards that will be tested in the metro today.

More severe weather in 2013?

Last year was relatively quiet for severe weather in Minnesota. Droughts don't produce thunderstorms, and once the drought switch was flipped last summer...severe weather events were few and far between. That's one benefit of drought.

Looking at the active maps this spring, it doesn't take a degree in meteorology to conclude that it's much more likely we'll have an uptick in severe weather outbreaks in 2013.

A lingering late season snow cover in Minnesota can produce bigger north to south temperature gradients this spring...and that may translate to some potentially potent severe weather set ups for the Upper Midwest in the next 1-2 months.

Here is some great information from the Twin Cities NWS during this severe weather awareness week in Minnesota.

Be ready.

Next Winter "Slop Storm" arrives tomorrow:

It's like a broken record.

Yet another late season wintery storm is on the way.

This one appears to be coming in two distinct waves.

Wave #1 moves in with a wintery mix for the metro Wednesday. As milder air pushes north with the system precip should trend toward all rain from the metro south Wednesday.

North and west of the cities enough cold air means another batch of heavy wet cement like snow toward Morris, Alex, St. Cloud, Brainerd & Duluth.

Second Wave: Thursday night snow?

The second wave favors southeast Minnesota and the metro according to most models. This system looks colder, and should favor mostly snow for the metro.

Again model solutions vary...but the Euro, Canadian and GFS are cranking out some significant snowfall totals for the metro Thursday night into Friday.

The Euro also cranks out highs in the 50s by next Thursday.

Stay tuned...we may not be out of the woods for "plowable" snow yet this week. A repeat of last week's snow event is not out of the question.

Don't shoot me...I'm just the weather messenger.

Let's see how today forecast model runs handle the latest details of the incoming system.

PH

Metro: Snowiest April in 11 years; Duluth record 68.8" since February

Posted at 7:08 PM on April 15, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Turbo Charged Late Winter Season

Let's face it, nobody saw this coming last fall.

NOAA and most everyone else recognized the "high degree of difficulty" of this winter forecast last fall.

"This year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September."

-NOAA's Mike Halpert last fall on the unprecedented onset and demise of El Nino in 2012.

My predictions for a slightly milder than average (+1F to +3F) and significantly snowier (40" to 50") meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in my November 1st Winter Outlook held up well through February.

We finished "meteorological winter" +1F and tallied a respectable 44.8" of snowfall by March 5th.

Then came "bonus winter" in March and April with temps -5F to -7F, and another 10"+ snowfall to bring our current season snowfall of 56.1" at MSP Airport.

I did not see this coming last fall.

In the whole range of predictions from a near average winter, to a "drive by" winter, to a colder than average winter....nobody nailed the notion of a protracted winter into spring of 2013. Talk about exposing the limitations of long range forecasting.

So as we all slog through what is hopefully the "last worst" week of "spring in Minnesota" keep one thing in mind. Our weather pattern can, and probably will change for the better... and warmer soon.

Even in a what seems like a series of extremes, nature has a way of balancing things out.

The snow will melt. The lakes will thaw. Birds will sing and flowers will bloom.

Eventually.

Twin Cities: Snowiest April in 11 years

We've tallied/shoveled 6.8" of snowfall so far in April at MSP Airport. It's been closer to 10" here in the west metro.

Looking back at MN Climate Working Group data, it looks like this will go down as the snowiest April in 11 years. We logged 20.2" in April of 2001-'02.

Duluth has picked up an unprecedented record snowfall total of 68.8" since February. That's an entire winter's worth of snowfall...with much of it falling in "meteorological spring."

Snowiest February - April Period at Duluth

With the 4.1 inches of snow that fell on April 14th, Duluth has broke a record for the snowiest February through April period in recorded history. The snow total from February 1st through April 14th is 68.8 inches. This breaks the old record of 68.5 inches in 1950.

Silver Linings?

The good news?

All this rain and snow will help to ease drought in Minnesota this spring. The "hydrological" part of our drought is already showing signs of easing...and rivers & lakes will respond positively this spring.

The top few inches of soil in southern Minnesota is soaking up our sloppy rain and snow, but it's still going to take some serious rains after the full spring thaw to really recharge souls at depth of a few feet...and aquifers down deep.

Another benefit? The extreme cold and snow up north this winter means a good winter for our forests.

I asked Lee Frelich, the Director of UM's Center for Forest Ecology if our colder weather is a good thing for the forests "up north."

Paul:

Yes, deep snow and cold temperatures will give the boreal forest a brief reprieve from the warming temperatures we have had in recent years. Such winters could delay the arrival of insect pests not in Minnesota yet, such as mountain pine beetle coming from the west and Balsam fir wooly adelgid coming from the east. It should also limit the spread of emerald ash borer from southern to northern MN, where hundreds of millions of black ash trees in swamps form an important habitat for wildlife and native plants.

The deep snow will prevent root freezing, which can ironically be very damaging to boreal trees. A few years ago we had some Hobos buried 10 cm in the soil at Seagull Lake (end of the Gunflint Trail) including a very cold winter with temperatures as low as -45 at Seagull Guard Station, but with 20 inches of snow, it stayed about 30 degrees F in the soil all winter. The snow also insures a relatively late spring compared with recent years, with good soil moisture, so we probably won't see the damage to spruce and other conifers we had from the dry early spring last year.

Unfortunately, -40 is not cold enough to stop red maple from invading the boreal forest in the Boundary Waters. Maples can deep supercool their phloem sap down to about -45 or -48, thereby avoiding freezing injury. So, the replacement of the boreal conifer forest by temperate deciduous forest we have been observing in the last decade will continue.

Lee

Something positive in an otherwise dreary spring.

More snow up north:

Check out the snowfall totals from northeast Minnesota Monday courtesy of the Duluth NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1200 PM CDT MON APR 15 2013

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.00 5 N TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0651 AM
7.60 7 NW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0710 AM
7.00 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0734 AM
7.00 1 NNW GRAND PORTAGE MN COOK 0700 AM
6.00 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0916 AM
6.00 3 ENE HACKENSACK MN CASS 0732 AM
6.00 6 SW TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0700 AM
6.00 2 ENE HOVLAND MN COOK 0700 AM
5.60 1 SW TOFTE MN COOK 0600 AM
5.50 LUTSEN MN COOK 0722 AM
5.00 TWO HARBORS MN LAKE 0624 AM
5.00 LAKE NICHOLS MN ST. LOUIS 0623 AM
5.00 LARSMONT MN LAKE 0520 AM
4.70 LITTLE MARAIS MN LAKE 0608 AM
4.50 4 E CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0710 AM
4.50 1 WSW GRAND MARAIS MN COOK 0700 AM
4.50 12 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA 0700 AM
4.50 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0624 AM
4.50 KNIFE RIVER MN LAKE 0600 AM
4.50 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM

Rare Sun Tuesday?

It was nice to see some sunny breaks at the Weather Lab in the west metro Monday evening.

Weather fingers and toes crossed, but it looks like we could see some rare...possibly extended peeks at the sun Tuesday.

Wednesday slop storm ahead:

The next winter in April slop storm rolls in Wednesday.

For the metro a wintry mix will trend to all rain Wednesday, then may end as more wet snow Thursday.

Not far to the north, Minnesotans in Alex, St. Cloud and Duluth among other locations will "enjoy" yet another late season plowable snowfall.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the system Tuesday.

PH

"Spring" snowfall records tumble; Wednesday slop storm; 60F "mirage" next week?

Posted at 9:00 AM on April 15, 2013 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Spring of our Discontent

It's getting so bad even migratory birds are tempted to turn back south.

This spring is seriously turning into a mental health challenge for most Minnesotans.

"Reluctant" doesn't even begin to describe this "spring" in Minnesota anymore.

Missing, tardy or AWOL is more like it?

The latest barrage of heavy wet snow up north virtually assures (potentially major) flooding on the Red River Valley this spring.

And Duluth reports a new all time snowfall record for February through April.

Any good news in the forecast?

Maybe. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, I'm just not sure if it's a mirage yet.

In this Updraft we'll look for some sunny silver linings in the forecast, preview another slop storm ahead and squint to the horizon to see if forecast model suggestions of 60F are yet another mirage, or the real thing this time.

10.8" snowfall report in Fargo this morning

I-94 closed from Fargo the the Montana state line!

68.8" Duluth snowfall since February - snowiest Feb-Apr on record

6.8" snowiest April in 11 years at MSP Airport (since 20.2" in 2001-'02)

10 days in a row with rain and or snow at MSP Airport

-7.3F temps vs. average at MSP Airport so far in April

Rays of sunshine possible later today and Tuesday!

Ice choked Duluth Harbor this morning.
Image: Lake Superior Maritime Museum Webcam

Silver Linings?

I know.

Mining silver linings in The Dreary, Depressing Spring of 2013 seems futile.

But it really could be worse, and it is worse in northern Minnesota and North Dakota today compared to the metro.

Snow continues to swirl around the center of low pressure east of Fargo this morning.

I can't remember ever seeing this. I-94 closed in all of North Dakota? In April?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

1030 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...INTERSTATE 94 STILL CLOSED FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA LINE...

THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION...ALONG WITH TH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY PATROL...HAVE CLOSED INTERSTATE 94 IN NORTH DAKOTA FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA BORDER.

INTERSTATE 29 HOWEVER HAS RE-OPENED FROM FARGO TO GRAND FORKS.

Fargo is digging out from yet another 10.8" of heavy wet snow, and another 1.15" of liquid "Snow Water Equivalent" (SWE) on top of 4" to 8" that will run into...and over the banks of the Red River Valley this spring.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND

659 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

0657 AM HEAVY SNOW M10.8 INCH FARGO CASS ND BROADCAST MEDIA

1.15 LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALLEY NEWS LIVE STUDIO IN SOUTH
FARGO

The latest storm almost assures major flooding for much of the Red this spring. It will take a minor meteorological miracle to escape major, perhaps even record flooding on the Red.

Endless North Shore Winter:

In Duluth, the late season snow blitz is now unprecedented.

Snowiest February - April Period at Duluth

With the 4.1 inches of snow that fell on April 14th, Duluth has broke a record for the snowiest February through April period in recorded history. The snow total from February 1st through April 14th is 68.8 inches. This breaks the old record of 68.5 inches in 1950.

Two Harbors sports another 5" to 9" of wet snow this morning. The weight of the snow has taken some trees down according to local storm reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 656 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

0651 AM SNOW M9.0 INCH 5 N TWO HARBORS TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES DOWN.

The storm will gradually wind down up north today.

Metro: Brighter... then more slop ahead

There are a few rays of hope in the metro forecast. Some breaks in the clouds may offer a few sunny peeks today, with a better chance of some sunshine tomorrow.

The next nuisance April slop storm arrives Wednesday. A wintery mix should trend to all rain in the metro...but more "plowable" snow is on the way north of the Twin Cities.

Light at the end of the tunnel: Springtime or mirage?

We've seen this movie before.

The "medium range" models tease with 60F 1-2 weeks out, then just like Lucy they pull the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second.

Again Sunday the GFS (and to some degree Euro) cranked out the notion of much warmer temps late next week...60s and even 70s. The latest... overnight model runs backed off that idea, and favor a more gradual warm up next week.

There are some signs the AO and overall upper air pattern may shift late next week and offer some hope for a sustained warm up. As my dad used to say when I wasn't likely to get what I asked for. We'll see.

Stay tuned as we track this week's weather, and keep a hopeful but cautions eye cast toward a potential warm up next week.

PH

AM rush hour snow shot; Ice favors SE MN & I-90 corridor

Posted at 12:05 AM on April 11, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

AM Snow Burst looks more likely: (Updated 12:05 am)

Things are looking better now for the (too?) long anticiapted shot of heavy snow centered on Thursday AM rush hour. The upper low is finally making progress tonight, and snow is increasing in coverage and intensity.

The bust potential looked higher for a while Wednesday evening, but now the system appears on track for a shot of heavy snow between 3am and 10am in the metro.

Sticking with 6" to 12" overall storm total by Friday across much of central and southern MN including the metro. Thundersnow still a possibility as we move through Thursday morning.

Expect a nasty, snowy AM rush hour and plan accordingly.

PH

Main Event? (Updated 7:30pm for possible bust potential)

***As we move into Wednesday evening, I am a little concerned (hopeful??) about what appears to be a growing "bust potential" for this storm. Radar and satellite trends do not reflect well with what the models have been indicating will happen tonight. If these trends continue, we could see a reduction in expected snowfall totals.

An inflow of milder and drier air from the northeast has cut into support for developing snow tonight.

We'll have to see if a decent precip shield can develop in southern Minnesota in the overnight hours. At this point, that has come into question.

There is still impressive moisture working north near Omaha into northwest Iowa, so I'll stick with the going forecast of heavy snow bracketing AM rush hour for now. Just keeping an eye on developing trends. ***

***Original post 3:45pm***

So far...so good. Or not so good depending on your outlook.

Waves #1 & #2 of our multi part storm delivered as expected.

Now if wave #3 comes in overnight as forecast, we can praise the forecast models for a job well done. That might be a bigger if than it was 24 hours ago. There is some developing bust potential with this system.

Weather fingers crossed.

It still looks like tonight's main event will feature heavy wet snow for most of central and southern Minnesota. Worthington is cleaning up from a good old fashioned ice storm now, and Rochester and Winona will likely be doing the same Thursday.

In this Updraft we put the finishing touches on the forecast main event.

All eyes glued to the doppler.

Wave #3:

The 3rd and final wave of our April winter storm rolls through tonight.

This part of the storm features the surface low deepening and sliding through northern Iowa.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Some drier air (dew points in the 20s) is feeding into the metro from the north. Initially this will hold precip at bay, but later cause "evaporational cooling" that will help mixed precip quickly change to all snow as heavier precip moves in tonight.

The quetion is...will the dry and milder air to the north effectively weaken the system more than forecast modles show?

As the upper low...the upper air support part of the storm draws closer tonight. That should provide additional lift and cause radars to brighten with color overnight. Look for precip to increase coverage from the southwest this evening, then spread north and intensify overnight.

Twin Cities NWS has a nice web briefing on the incoming system here.

Overnight Dumping:

So called "dynamic forcing" will likely change precip to all snow tonight. In the metro this should occur between 10pm and midnight as the heavier precip moves in.

It still looks like the period of heaviest snowfall should occur between about midnight and 10 am Thursday. Snow intensity will taper Thursday...but lighter snow should linger most of the day and even into Friday.

Plan on a snowy commute Thursday morning.

Southeast Minnesota Ice Storm:

For Rochester and Winona, it will be ice.

Last night's ice storm caused considerable damage in Worthington and south central Minnesota. MPR's Mark Steil captured the damage today in Worthington.

Tonight, an overnight coating of up to .50" ice or more may snap trees and power lines in southeast Minnesota. Keep the wood stove stocked up and handy tonight and Thursday.

Bottom Line: How much?

Though I have some concerns about bust poterntial, the overall forecast for the storm remains on track. A wide area should see overall storm total snowfall accumulations of 6" to 12" by Thursday evening. The one thing that concerns me a little is the lack of cold air feeding into the system. There is some bust potential here.

We've already picked up 1" to 2" in the metro, so another 5" to 10" looks good for much of the Twin Cities...grand total of 6" to 12" by Thursday night.

Craig Edwards will have updates as the storm unfolds Thursday.

PH

The main event: Heavy snow tonight; soggy in Wisconsin

Posted at 7:28 AM on April 10, 2013 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Spring 2013, Storms, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms

Beginning last Saturday a series of weather systems have been producing waves of precipitation across the region. Most recently, on Tuesday and Tuesday night heavy rain fell in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms were reported along the southern tier of counties in Minnesota during the evening.

Overnight the rain pushed east with embedded thunderstorms, while snow spread across east central Minnesota. Two inches of snow were measured at Chaska and Hastings early this morning. At daybreak, the latest in the series of wet weathermakers was moving through Wisconsin. Snow was breaking out in western South Dakota.

A record rainfall was measured at the LaCrosse NWS Office.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT LA CROSSE WI FOR APRIL 9TH...

ON APRIL 9TH...1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED AT THE LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR
APRIL 9TH OF 0.87 INCHES SET IN 1973.

RECORDS FOR LA CROSSE DATE BACK TO 1873.

Source:MPR/Weather underground

The much advertised snow event is in the process of evolving. Snow is expected to fall heavy at times in southwest Minnesota this afternoon.

NOAA meteorologists have integrated the model output and have produced a good forecast of the region likely to receive 8 inches or more of snow in the next 24 hours.

Here is a snippet of their snowfall forecast discussion:

THIS RESULTS IN THE BAND OF 6 TO 12 INCH SNOWFALL FROM PARTS OF EASTERN SD INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ANY ICING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AS MOISTURE LADEN RIDES UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME.

As Paul has been noting and questioning, the models have not strayed much from putting the Twin Cities metro region in close proximity to the band of heaviest snow. I see no reason to differ from the numbers posted this morning from the NWS Office in Chanhassen.

This is a major weather producer with the threat of severe weather in the warmer air to our south. Try to remember it is April.

From NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the threat for damaging winds from thunderstorms today and tonight.

This system will move slowly and precipitation will last through Thursday. Heavy snow is expected to reach northwest Wisconsin tomorrow. Much below normal temperatures are likely in our neck of the woods through the weekend.

An active weather pattern is seen next week as well.

Craig Edwards

Take Your Pick: Waves of rain-sleet-ice-heavy snow & thunder next 48 hours

Posted at 7:00 PM on April 9, 2013 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Something for Everyone?

I'm sure there are still a few Minnesotans who are joyful at the prospect one more major wintery blast of precipitation this week.

I just can't count myself in that group. I'm still looking for an escape hatch.

So I offer this brief diversion. Cherry blossoms at peak in Washington D.C this spring.

Image: National Cherry Blossom Festival

As I battle my own "winter denial" the professional part of my brain looking at the weather maps feels like a cold slap in the face.

It's going to snow (heavily) in April. It happens sometimes in Minnesota. Get over it.

If you're in the "more winter please" crowd there is something for everyone in the forecast.

The next 48 hours will bring rain, sleet, ice, snow and even some thundersnow to parts of Minnesota.

And let's be clear. This could be a record setting, even crippling April snowfall event for much of southern Minnesota.

High winds may snap snow and ice laden trees and power lines in southern Minnesota, and power outages are likely tonight through Thursday.

How much?

Details below in the blog... but let's put it this way. It's not out of the question as some modles suggest that the metro may end up with a top 5 (9.6")...or even a shot at the biggest April snowfall on record (13.6") by Thursday evening.

In other (more hopeful) news...it will gradually warm up this weekend, and we'll be slowly melting the snow that falls this week.

And spring will come...eventually.

Winter Storm Warnings include the metro

Ice Storm Warnings include Worthignton and southwest Minensota

Next Wave Overnight: Thunder south

Wave #1 Tuesday brought snow to southwest Minnesota and another .32" rainfall to MSP Airport.

Wave #2 of our multi-part fuel injected storm system blows through overnight with a mixed bag of rain/sleet/ice snow and yes...thundersnow in southern Minnesota.

The rain snow line should set up right in the metro overnight. That could produce a couple inches of heavy wet snow from the (especially the west) metro and points west by morning.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop with precip type

Earlier severe thunderstorms rumbled through northern Iowa near Mason City Tuesday evening.

557 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN WRIGHT...SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK...NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT AND SOUTHEASTERN KOSSUTH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 554 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAKOTA CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED UST WEST OF HUMBOLDT.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

Check out the 2km visible satellite shot from late Tuesday afternoon. You can see the broader snoother clouds with "stratiform snow" in South Dakota. You can alos see the lumpy "convective clusters" with thunderstorms in Nebraska and Iowa.

Image: College of DuPage

Preview of coming attractions?

The drought of 2012 afforded us a quiet severe weather season last year. With our more active "spring" weather pattern so far this year it's a safe bet...likely a no brainer that we'll likely see a more active severe weather season in 2013.

Severe weather is likely in the heart of Tornado Alley overnight into Wednesday.

Meteorology 101: Big temp contrast = Big Storm

Take a look at the incredible temperature contrast across the Upper Midwest Tuesday. I saw 80s in southeast Iowa....and 20s in northwest Iowa and teens in Nebraska.

This kind of wicked temperature contrast fuels big, wrapped up, super charged Midwest storms.

Break Down:

The late Tuesday models confirm previous thinking on the still incoming system.

Here's the best brief breakdown at this point.

Overnight & Wednesday:

The next wave of precip blossoms northward through southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Temps a few degrees either side of the freezing mark in the metro and south will mean a mixed bag of rain, ice sleet & snow. There will be some accumulations on your lawn by morning...and some glaze ice on driveways trees & power lines.

In southwest Minnesota...a full blown ice storm with icy accumulations between .25" and .75" is likely. There could be some serious power outages by Wednesday afternoon.

Main Event: Wednesday Night & Thursday:

As the strong upper low approaches Wednesday evening, a powerful "vacuum effect" will produce serious "lift" in the atmosphere over southern Minnesota.

Mixed precip will become all snow, and strong "lift" will produce heavy snow bands...and possibly thundersnow. All indications are snowfall rates could reach 1" to 2" per hour in this "dynamic" environment.

The heaviest snow should fall between about 10pm Wednesday night and noon Thursday. If the 12+ hours of moderate to heavy snow materializes...we should have no problem reaching snowfall output of 6" to 12"+ for central and southern Minnesota...including the Twin Cities.

Many of the models suggest higher totals. I'm still being conservative at this point given the season, warm ground and the potential for compaction. A few inches of "what falls" will melt and comapct...that means what's in your yard may be a few inches less than what falls fromt he sky.

The Perfect Storm?

One scenario is still possible, if unpleasant to think about.

If everything comes together just right Wednesday night & Thursday...the more aggressive forecast models may be on to something with the suggestion of prolific snowfall totals.

The possibility of some 10" to 20" snowfall totals seems laughable in April, but so did the thought of 28" snowfall before the Halloween Mega Storm.

This is one powerful storm. It has all the ingredients to produce heavy snowfall totals with thundersnow that could cause "snow bursts" capable of 2" to even 3" per hour in some areas Wednesday night & Thursday.

It may sound "Snowpacolyptic"... but at this point I can't rule out the slim possibility that this storm slows down and intensifies enough to produce some 15" to 20" April snowfall totals in the southern half of Minnesota...and possibly the Twin Cities by Thursday night.

Full disclosure: Here are the NAM & GFS snowfall outputs for MSP Airport as of Tuesday PM.

NAM:

GFS:

Just thought I'd throw that out there.

Stay tuned.

PH

Round #1: Metro mostly rain today; Historic "Top 10" April snowfall event by Thursday PM?

Posted at 9:40 AM on April 9, 2013 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Looking For An Escape Hatch

The optimist in me is still in "snowfall denial."

Somehow, some way this cruel hoax of an extended April fool's joke will not happen. Some divine intervention will prevent us from getting widespread 6"+ snowfall totals by Thursday.

The realist in me...the analytical weather forecast guy says keep dreaming. The maps are what they are...and they all point toward several rounds of increasingly wintery precip that end as heavy wet snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

The overnight and early Tuesday model runs didn't do much to feed the optimistic weather guy side.

All indications still point to a blockbuster, possibly an historic "Top 10" April snowfall event this week.

I'll keep looking.

"Incredibly complex" Twin Cities NWS description of incoming storm system

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop with precip type

Winter Storm Warnings in effect starting tonight including the Twin Cities

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY... MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE

452 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A MIX SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER...MAINLY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MID DAY THURSDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH DUE TO SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

April Snows: Not that unusual

April snow is not unusual. Bigger April snows over 6" are more rare. Here's a look at the "Top 10" April snowfalls in the Twin Cities and some perspective on April snow courtesy of the MN Climate Working Group.

Could this week's storm earn a spot in the top 10? It's possible.

Blizzard in St. Paul: April, 1923
Courtesy the Minnesota Historical Society

Top ten largest April Snowstorms in the Twin Cities 1891-2007

Rank Date Year Amount (in)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
#1 April 14, 1983 13.6
#2 April 27-28 1907 13.0
#3 April 19-21 1893 10.0
#4 April 29-30 1984 9.7
#5 April 6-9 1923 9.6
#6 April 13-14 1928 9.5
#7 April 13-14 1949 9.3
#8 April 27 1967 8.5
#9 April 1-2 2002 7.6
#10 April 8-9 1980 7.6 (tie)

Historic April Snowstorms

Heavy snows in April are fairly common in Minnesota's past. The transition from winter to spring can spawn some rather strong storms and given the right conditions, can also tap into leftover cool air from the winter. Looking through historical anecdotes, the greatest chance of having a large snowstorm appears to be in the first half of the month. One of the greatest April snowstorms (besides the April 5-7, 2008 event.) was the storm that began on April 5, 1933. The old Pigeon River Bridge crossing in Cook County saw 28 inches in one day from that storm. This still stands as the 24 hour state record for snowfall in April. Two Harbors in Lake County saw 17 inches of snow from the 1933 storm.

Another historical snowstorm is the event that unfolded beginning on the morning of April 19th and ending on April 21, 1893. When it was all over 30 inches buried St. Cloud, with 24 inches in a single day. The 1893 Minnesota Weather Service bulletin describes this storm. "The (Low) caused the most disagreeable weather of the month, heavy snow fell varying in depth from six to thirty-six inches throughout the state: railroad lines were blocked, and traffic of all kinds was almost entirely suspended." The Twin Cities saw 10 inches from this event and this is the third largest April snowstorm in the Twin Cities.

Wave #1: Mostly metro rain today

The lead wave with our unusual April storm is working north today. Temps are above freezing in the lowest mile of the atmosphere over the metro, but sub-freezing not too far west where snow, ice and sleet will mix in. There is even some sleet mixing in in the west and north metro today.

Redwood Falls and Tracy and other locations in southwest Minnesota are already reporting moderate to heavy snow.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

MONTEVIDEO LGT SNOW 25 23 93 NE16G23 30.16R VSB 1 WCI 12
GRANITE FALLS SNOW 26 23 89 NW18G26 30.14R VSB 1/2 WCI 13
CANBY SNOW 20 19 93 N16G24 30.17R VSB 1/2 WCI 6
MARSHALL CLOUDY 25 19 80 N22G32 30.09R VSB 1/2 WCI 10
REDWOOD FALLS HVY SNOW 29 26 89 N14G24 30.08R VSB 1/4 WCI 18
OLIVIA LGT SNOW 30 27 86 N20G26 30.08R WCI 18
PIPESTONE LGT SNOW 23 21 93 NE12 29.88F WCI 12
WINDOM MIX PCPN 32 30 93 N15 29.98R WCI 22
WORTHINGTON CLOUDY 30 27 86 N15G24 29.96S WCI 19
JACKSON MIX PCPN 32 32 100 VRB22G33 29.89F WCI 19
TRACY SNOW 25 24 94 N16G23 30.07R VSB 1/4 WCI 13
SLAYTON LGT SNOW 26 26 99 N9 29.99F VSB 3/4 WCI 17

The combination of a slow moving, long duration precip event and a good fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce some impressive "liquid" QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) totals for this storm.

The metro looks in line to pick up as much as 2" of liquid this week...rain today trending toward snow by later Wednesday.

Rain & Flood Concerns:

To the south, as much as 2" to 3" rainfall totals has forecaster in La Crosse rightfully concerned about some rapid river rises... and the potential for flooding this week.

Big Snow West:

This storm will produce mostly snow...and some prolific snowfall totals of up to 20" in central South Dakota.

418 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013 /318 AM MDT TUE APR 9 2013/

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACCUMULATION TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHOT FOR HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

* SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...THERE WILL BE A STEEP GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...FROM NEAR 6 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TO UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES IN CENTRAL DAKOTA.

Remarkable Temperature Contrasts:

Temperature contrasts in the atmosphere drive big storms. Late Monday temps ranged from the balmy 70s in Iowa to near 0F in eastern North Dakota. That tight "temperature gradient" helps spin up storms in the Midwest.

Transition:

The transition from rain to snow will be a gradual...halting, sometimes reversable process in the next 36 hours in the metro.

A wintery mix of ice may develop as soon as tonight...and it looks like precip could change phase several times Wednesday between ice, sleet, rain and snow.

By Wednesday night it's all snow...and most of the snowfall accumulation should occur Wednesday night into Thursday.

Main Event:

The main snowfall event should be Wednesday night & Thursday. 12 to 18 hours of heavy wet April snow still looks likely.

All indications are snowfall rates could reach 1"...and maybe 2" per hour at times.

The heaviest snowfall band still appears to lay out in a west to east swath across southern Minnesota including Wheaton through Morris-Willmar-Alex-St. Cloud-Mille Lacs-Twin Cities-Eau Claire & Rice Lake.

I can't find a model that delivers less than 6" of snowfall in the metro with this system. And some... like the GFS are cranking out ridiculuous totals...from 12" to as much as 20"+.

I would easily dismiss the notion of a 20" snowfall total in Minnesota in April...but I recall the days before the Halloween Mega Storm in the WCCO Weather Center as we stood in disbelief at the model output of 20"+ snowfall totals... in October.

It's extremely rare to get that much snow...but it has happened, and the transitional seasons of fall and spring can add additional moisture and energy to storm systems.

Bottom Line?

I think a forecast at this point of a general band of 6" to 12"+ across central and southern Minnesota including the metro is reasonable. I'll watch the model and storm trends through tomorrow....but I won't be shocked if we see some totals (well?) in excess of 12" in Minnesota by Thursday evening.

Stay tuned...and be ready for rapidly changing forecast and weather conditions this week.

PH

Fake Spring of 2013? Major April snow "event" possible this week

Posted at 6:08 PM on April 8, 2013 by Paul Huttner (14 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Seasonal Denial

In this "Fake Spring of 2013" I feel a little like the Blues Brothers playing at the country bar behind the chicken wire.

Please don't throw bottles, I'm just the weatherman.

Our latest weather maps inspire words I can't type here and still keep my job.

On the other hand, it is still Minnesota...and it does snow here in April. Sometimes heavily.

Another good "soaking rain" Tuesday saturates now thawed top soils in the metro and southern Minnesota.

Yes, the drought is easing this week.

As colder air works into the slow moving storm, rain will mix with sleet and snow Wednesday and turn to all snow by Thursday.

How much? Most forecast models are leaning in the same direction. A lot.

In this Updraft we look at the incoming storm, try and time out the change over from rain to sleet/ice and snow, and talk about what's still uncertain with the system.

I can finally see my lawn again. The question is, for how long?

Thanks Mom:

Before I get started today, a brief note to honor a wonderful lady and great mother.

My mom Marge Huttner passed away Sunday. She was 84 years old.

We are saddened with the passing of a great mother and friend, and also relieved her suffering is past.

Born in Minneapolis and a South High graduate, Marge was a longtime Deephaven resident since 1958. She raised 6 children and loved her 14 grandchildren, many attended Deephaven School and Minnetonka High School in the west metro. She volunteered her time as an election judge and served for several years as a volunteer on the Deephaven Police Commission.

Mom had the biggest heart and always supported her family with love, good food and the best chocolate cake on the planet. She was even proud of one son who chose to go astray with a wayward career in the TV/Radio news and weather biz.

Thanks mom. We love and miss you.

Mom at Legoland in California

April Snowmageddon? Major Minnesota winter storm looking more likely this week

The calendar says April, but the weather maps still scream March.

Things could still (mercifully?) change, but a major late-season snow event is looking more likely by the hour.

Here's the best breakdown on the storm as of Monday evening.

Watches & Warnings:

The Twin Cities NWS has pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for much of central Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro.

Huge Storm:

In fact this storm spiraling through the Rockies is huge. At least 11 states are under some type of winter weather warning. Blizzard warnings are up for parts of I-25 in Colorado.

Severe Outbreak:

A severe weather outbreak will occur along the southern flank of the potent storm this week in the central plains in the heart of Tornado Alley.

Here's the SPC risk area for Tuesday.

The System:

The storm is a bit of a late season oddity. More like a Panhandle Hook without the "hook" as the low tracks northeast toward Chicago.

Though the surface low track would normally be too far southeast to produce heavy snow in the metro, the upper level low looks more favorable to generate snow in Minnesota.

Timing:

The next wave of rain increases across Minnesota again overnight and Tuesday.

It should be all rain in the metro, but some sleet and snow may mix in in western Minnesota through Tuesday.

Another shot of .50" rainfall looks likely through Tuesday. On top of the .71" that fell at MSP early Monday morning...that's a good soaking for the areas where the first several inches topsoil is now thawed. The rest will run off into rivers and lakes.

The graph below shows the top 8" of soil is now frost free in Waseca south of the metro.

Image: University of Minnesota's Southern Research and Outreach Center via MN Climate Working Group

I poked and prodded down to an average of 6" of frost free soil in my lawn in the west metro Monday afternoon.

The top few inches of soil in from the metro south are getting a good soaking this week. Good news for putting a serious dent in the lingering severe drought from last fall.

Overall this slow moving storm appears ready to drop 1.5" to 2" liquid on southern Minnesota.

Rain To Snow:

The system will be mostly snow in the Dakotas where Winter Storm Warnings for (gulp) 12" to 18" of snow are posted.

Western Minnesota will transsition form rain to a mix Tuesday...to mostly snow Wednesdal with the "rain snow line" running roughly from Redwood Falls to St. Cloud to Hinckley Wednesday.

By Wednesday night, most of the models indicate a transition from a mixed bag... to all snow in the metro...with the potential for heavy wet snow late Wednesday night and Thursday.

I keep looking for a way out, but at this point I don't see it. Ground temps will be above freezing for much of the event...so it will take some heavy snowfall rates to overcome warm ground. That may happen.

Snowfall Totals: How much?

That's the magic (and somewhat still unanswerable) question at this point in time.

It's still too early to credibly bracket snowfall totals on Monday... for Thursday. Especially with this system.

That said, most all the major models...NAM, GFS, Euro and the Canadian GEM strongly suggest the potential for 6"+.

The GFS and Euro are leading the way with some ridiculous "off the charts" (12"+) snowfall totals for central Minnesota...and quite possibly the metro.

The GFS numbers are crazy high, and the NAM is more restrained but still brings a heavy "plowable" event ot the metro.

I won't commit to that today...but at this point I think the most credible weather advice is expect that snow is very likey Wednesday night and Thursday, with a good chance of 6"+ in much of central and southern Minnesota including the metro.

If this event stays on course Tuesday into Wednesday, I will not be surprised if we are forecasting some heavy wet 12"+ snowfall totals close to home...and maybe in the metro.

What could possibly go wrong?

The best chance (hope?) for a stay of execution form a major late season snowfall at this point is probably a shift in the upper air support to the south...and/or a warming of the storm's temp profile above freezing so that more of the precip falls as rain or sleet.

That's the best way we may avoid a major shot of heavy wet "heart attack" snow this week.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

PH

Nicer Sunday; Rain returns tonight; Models split on rain/snow by Wednesday

Posted at 4:08 PM on April 5, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

10" snowfall total at Two Harbors Saturday

Rain returns to the metro Sunday night

Aiming for average.

That's the benchmark recently for Minnesota's weather. There are few times when "average" seems like a laudable goal, but lately we'll take it.

"Average" this weekend in the metro is 53F/33F. We'll come close by Sunday.

The weather maps continue to look busy for the next week, System #1 tracks through this weekend. Forecast models are split on the track and temp profile for system #2 next week.

Will it be mostly rain...or snow?

In this Updraft we track incoming weather systems and keep an eye on the horizon for a much bigger warm up.

True spring weather has to come sooner or later.

Somewhere daffodils and tulips are waiting for those first precious 60 degree days.

Weekend Split: Shower Saturday, Nicer Sunday

At least it's mostly rain.

This weekend's weather maker is bringing a rainy mix to Minnesota. A few wet snowflakes will mix in, but as "warm advection" takes over most of this weekend's precip will fall as rain in the metro.

The models center between .25" and .50" rainfall totals in the metro and southern Minnesota.

Snow North:

Enough cold air will linger for a band of snow that includes Brainerd, the Iron Range, Duluth and the North Shore communities.

Some of the models suggest a more potent system near Duluth and along the North Shore ridge into northwest Wisconsin. It's possible some may be plowing 6"+ by Sunday??

Sunday: Sunnier & nicer day this weekend

Place your bets for Sunday as the best day to get outside for that walk of to take in the still ice crusted lakes one last time.

A weak bubble of high pressure should mean some peeks of sun, and lighter winds. Temps may stagger to near 50F in the metro by around 3pm Sunday.

Not bad!

Next Week: Definitely wet... but rain or snow?

I feel like a (weather) air traffic controller guiding storm systems into Minnesota since our pattern shift in February,

Another, bigger wetter system appears headed for the Upper Midwest next week.

There are huge forecast model discrepancies with this system. The GFS favors a warmer northern track that would keep precip mostly rain in the metro.

The Euro favors a colder system and the potential for a mini "April Snowmageddon."

Usually the Euro is the superior model, but lately it has done a lot of flip flopping and the GFS has a better track record recently.

The recently upgraded Canadian GEM model is a blend of the 2. The GEM favors mostly rain in the metro Monday into Tuesday then ending with a brief blast of heavy wet snow Wednesday morning.

All of the forecast models seem to suggest there could be heavy snow in central Minnesota next week.

Stay tuned as we let the models hopefully find consensus as the system moves inland over the denser upper air and surface network in the western USA late this weekend.

Less garbage in...better product out... so to speak.

Seeley: Soils thawing out in southern Minnesota

Here's an interesting tidbit as soils begin to thaw from my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley in this week's Weather Talk.

MPR listener question: How deep is the frost right now and will much of the rain in the next couple of days soak into the ground?

Answer: With the loss of snow cover the soil is beginning to thaw from the surface downward more rapidly. In southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities area the top 5 to 8 inches of soil has thawed out, however there is still a frost layer between 8 and 20 inches in most places. Further west and north in the Red River Valley frost still extends down to 30-40 inches deep and there is relatively little surface thawing so far. The rainy pattern we expect to see develop for the weekend and extend into next week will help accelerate the thaw, and indeed some of the rainfall will go into the dry soil, but not too much depth.

A check of soil temps in Waseca Friday shows the top 4" of soils has indeed thawed above the freezing mark.

"True Spring" in about 10 days??

The longer range outlook continues to insist on a strong push of much warmer air around Tax Day 2013.

A major shift to a "positive AO" could finally signal a true spring warm up.

The GFS is still cranking out a string of 60s...and a shot at 70F in the next 2 weeks.

It has to get here sooner or later (right?) and pushing our first 60s much past mid-April would be highly unusual.

Hang in there. Things could look a whole lot better in 2 weeks.

Weather fingers & toes crossed.

Ice Out Loon In Thursday:

I'm excited and honored to be hosting again for this year's annual "Ice Out Loon In" event for the Freshwater Society Thursday at The Lafayette Club.

The event features excellent food, company and auction items and the annual "loon calling" contest.

The Freshwater Society is a big supporter of keeping our Land of 10.000 Lakes clean and clear, and supports water research around the world.

Freshwater is the keeper of detailed records in ice out for Lake Minnetonka for decades.

Bring your warmth. Maybe we can make the ice melt sooner?

Science Museum of Minnesota celebrates "Stewardship and Science" for Earth Day 2013:

I'm also stoked to be part of the SMM's Earth Day 2013 program on April 20th.

I'll be giving the keynote on Minnesota's Changing Climate. What will Minnesota look like in 2040? Place your bets.

Here's a preview of the big Earth Day extravaganza at SMM on April 20th.

Hope to see you there.

PH

Brighter PM; Easing into spring; April showers Friday; Late "Ice-Out" 2013

Posted at 8:30 AM on April 4, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Baby Steps Into Spring

Skies will brighten this afternoon as a weak cool front slides south.

The thermometer pushed 70F at the Corn Palace in Mitchell, and in Huron South Dakota Tuesday.

Springtime air made a valiant run at southwest Minnesota with 64F at Sioux Falls and 62F at Pipestone.

So close... and yet so far.

On the edge of the now rapidly dwindling snow pack, Temps did respond in the metro and most of Minnesota Tuesday. Brisk breezes made it feel a little cooler...but overall things are definitely heading in the right direction.

Progress. Baby steps.

In this Updraft we talk about the warm up, and track Friday's "April showers." We also look gratefully as the "Euro" model does a full 180 and backs off major snow chances next week, and talk about what looks like a late "ice-out" season in Minnesota this year.

Now if the remaining piles of snow in my lawn will melt away please. Somebody forgot to tell them it's April.

41F low at MSP this morning

2nd time MSP has stayed above freezing at night since January 11th

0" snow depth at MSP Airport

Temps Respond Slowly:

It was warmer out there Tuesday.

Drive 4 hours southwest of the metro and you come to beautiful Sioux Falls and Mitchell, SD. Temps pushed 70F there and you could feel spring in the air.

Spring Break at The Corn Palace?

People travel to more bizarre vacation destinations.

The "thermal ridge" passes over Minnesota tonight, meaning temps may not fall belwo freezing in many locations. Melting snow at night...what a concept.

Soils Thawing South:

The top few inches of soil in southern Minnesota is slowly responding to warmer days and stronger sunlight.

Tracking April Showers Friday:

Our next weathermaker rolls in Friday with a good chance of rain showers.

The NAM model is the northernmost outlier on the low track.

Look for occasional, scattered showers Friday PM into Saturday. Overall rainfall totals look to favor .25" to .50" and be more scattered in nature due to the "convective" showery spring like nature of the system.

Backing off snow chances next week:

Something about last night's Euro run just didn't look right to my eye. The suggestion of a major snow storm the second week of April in Minnesota is not unheard of...but it didn't pass the smell test looking at the overall weather pattern.

Tuesday's Euro run did a complete 180, and now agrees more with the GFS notion of a weaker, warmer low tracking further south. We may escape with mostly rain showers...and maybe a few renegade wet snow flakes.

One eye on that system instead of two.

Ice fishing in May?

Last year they held the March ice fishing tourney in canoes near Grand Marias. This year they may be able to drill holes on May 1st.

A year ago the 7 month boating season had already begun on Lake Minnetonka and other metro lakes like Calhoun and Harriet.

Today Calhoun still looks good for ice boating.

Lakes are still ice covered in northern Iowa and all of Minnesota now.

It looks like ice out will be about 1-2 weeks later than average this year. That means late April for metro lakes, and May up north.

That Memorial Day BWCA trip could be on frigid waters this year.

What a difference a year makes.

PH

Milder breezes; Friday night rain; Rain or...snow next week?

Posted at 8:51 AM on April 3, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Making Progress

Finding spring this year is like driving uphill on ice. Creep slowly forward and easy on the gas pedal or you'll spin your wheels. Slam on the brakes and you'll start slipping downhill.

Nice & easy does it.

A milder breeze this afternoon is courtesy of a rare south to southwest wind blowing over snow free areas in Iowa & southwest Minnesota.

We take a step forward on spring the next few days. Melting snow, rain instead of snow falling from the sky.

Progress in the Reluctant Spring of 2013.

In this Updraft we track the warm up, the fading snow cover and a rainy weekend system. We'll also look at a potentially mild... or wild wintery relapse next week depending on which model scenario wins out.

Close your eyes and pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. It may be too scary to look too far into the future.

Milder Breezes:

Winds will gradually shift into the south & southwest today in southern Minnesota.

That's important, because as the sun warms now snow free ground to the south & southwest, warm advection will blow into the Twin Cities this afternoon.

Image: NOHRSC

Look for a pretty good "temp spike" between about 3-5 pm today.

Highs should push 50F in the metro and reach 60F in southwest Minnesota this afternoon.

Fading Snow Cover:

There's still plenty of snow up north, but snow cover is taking a big hit in southern Minnesota this week.

Today's it's sunshine and milder breezes.

By Friday night, soaking rains will fall on the weakening snow pack...further eroding what's left.

Monday's MODIS Terra image clearly shows the edge of the snow cover now at the Metro's doorstep. You can also see still frozen lakes into northern Iowa and all the way south to Madison, Wisconsin.

Friday Night Rain:

Our next weathermaker moves in Friday night with mostly rain for the metro, and some wet snow potential near and north of a Brainerd to Duluth line.

Image: GFS via College of DuPage

Models seem to be settling in around .25" to .50" for the metro...with some heavier totals up north.

Close Your Eyes: Snow next week?

Let's hope this is "forecast model fantasy"...but the Euro is cranking out a big wet sloppy snow storm next week for the metro.

Image: Euro via Environment Canada

If the Euro pans out...we take a snowy step backwards next Tuesday.

If the GFS & Canadian GEM are right...a weaker, warmer system with a little rain. No big deal.

Place your bets.

Right now I'm suspicious of the snowy Euro solution. Or maybe I'm just afraid.

Enjoy the sunshine today!

PH

Pancake Effect: Maple sap weather ahead; Friday night soaker?

Posted at 5:20 PM on April 2, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Pancake Effect

Get ready for maple sap weather.

Our milder sunny days and cool night this week are perfect to get the annual maple sap run going.

My good neighbor and longtime Deephaven resident Howie Bennis is the guy who taps the trees around the weather lab each spring. Howie boils up some of the finest maple syrup in the land under the label "Deephaven Sugarbush."

Good luck getting your hands on some during the short window between production and plate.

The forecast looks favorable for moderate to heavy flows of sweet amber nectar in the next 2-3 weeks.

In today's Updraft we talk about what makes good "maple sap weather," a nice warm up and a good soaker as we head into the weekend.

Yum!

Maple Sap Weather

It could be a better year for pancake lovers in Minnesota.

Last year's record warmth robbed us of good maple sap flows in Minnesota. The 70 degree warmth was nice, but shut down the normally prolific maple sap flows of spring.

This week should mark the start of favorable maple sap weather.

What makes perfect weather for maple sap in Minnesota?

Thawing soils, cool night below freezing and sunny days in the 40s.

That will (finally) happen this week.

Richard DeVries from the UM Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen weighs in on the reluctant season so far.

We need a couple warm, sunny days to warm up the trees and melt some of the snow. We don't want it too warm, because we still want to get some frosty nights in April. According to our records of past years, we get most of our sap in April. That means there is no need to panic, I keep telling myself.

The forecast looks promising for the next few days.I know it's dangerous to make any predictions but I expect to be cooking this Saturday. I really hope it works out because it is our last official open house of the season. Even though this is the last official open house, visitors are always welcome to visit the Maple Sugar House to see what we are up to.

Let's hope the sap starts pouring as temperatures rise this week.

Friday night soaker?

Things are looking good for a soaking rain...and maybe some thunder Friday night into Saturday.

A slow moving low will ride east into southern Minnesota Friday night.

Precip totals with the system look impressive...and may exceed 1" in the heaviest bands.

The latest model trends shift the system slightly north.

That may put the heaviest precip band slightly north of the metro...favoring Alex, St. Cloud & Hinckley. It may also mean warmer temps for the metro...with 50s and even a shot at 60F for southern Minnesota Saturday.

The latest Euro run is cranking out 60F for the metro Saturday.

Stay tuned.

PH

Turning the corner into spring; Sunshine, milder days & April showers ahead

Posted at 8:55 AM on April 2, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Sun Splashed

Spring is sneaky in Minnesota.

It often comes in on cat's paws, silently creeping up on us. It's not always a bold announcement of seasonal change. Fall and winter have that covered.

Spring in Minnesota is often the absence of a cold breeze, slowly disappearing snow cover, sunshine quietly working minor miracles on the south side of your home.

This week marks the true beginning of spring in Minnesota. The coldest March in 11 years is history, and we can finally relax a little, and enjoy the ever increasing sunshine and warmth.

In this Updraft we'll track the warm up, and a much wetter weather pattern that will bring a series of April showers and an elevated flood risk in the next 1-2 weeks.

-5.6F temps vs. average in March at MSP Airport
11 years since we've endured a march this cold in Minnesota
13.8" March snowfall at MSP Airport
49.3" season snowfall to date in the metro

Bye - Bye March:

The official numbers are in for March, confirming my suspicions that this was the coldest March in 11 years in Minnesota.

The details from the Twin Cities NWS:

March 2013 Coldest March in 11 Years

March of 2013 will be remembered for one thing, cold. After having a March in 2012 that had temperatures that belonged more in April, this March went the other direction as persistent cold air resulted in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, and Eau Claire all having their coldest March since 2002.

In the end, temperatures across the region for March of 2013 were 5 to 10 degrees below normal, snowfall was 6 to 12+ inches above normal (outside of SW MN), while melted precipitation was near to 1 inch above normal (outside of SW MN). Again, the southwest part of the state managed to watch the heaviest precipitation stay north or east of them and a as a result, southwest Minnesota ended up being the only part of the region to see below normal snowfall and precipitation.

April Warming Trend

I just wanted to type those words, it's been so long.

With little wind 39 feels better this afternoon, a good test of how stronger April sun can overcome a wintery hangover on an air mass.

By tomorrow you'll notice spring in the air. A building southwest breeze will boost temps into the lower 50s metro to 60s southwest, and snow melt will intensify.

Milder air hangs around the next few days.

Soils thawing out:

The frost is coming out of the ground in southern Minnesota.

Take a look at real time soil temps in Waseca Minnesota over the past week.

Image: University of Minnesota's Southern Research and Outreach Center

You can see how the soil at 2" depth is already above freezing during the day...and responding to the daily temp cycle.

At 4" depth, soil temps are around 31 degrees...close to the thaw point. By later this week the frost should be gone from the top few inches of soil in southern Minnesota.

That means rainfall this weekend should be able to soak into the top few inches. Good news.

The start of how we bust a drought in these parts?

April Showers: Wetter Pattern Emerging

Looking at the maps, I'm optimistic that we may put a significant dent in the drought in Minnesota the next few weeks.

The first in a series of wet April systems moves in Friday & Saturday.

Image: NOAA GFS via College of DuPage

This one should be warm enough for mostly rain in the metro, with some snow north of Brainerd & Duluth.

This system has the potential to soak us with .50" to 1" rainfall in southern Minnesota. Flood risk aside, we'll take every drop as droughty soils thaw to soak in the welcome spring rains.

Storm Factory: Bigger system next week?

The overall weather pattern looks favorable for a series of storms in the next 2 weeks.

The jet stream has shifted, and our cold dry northwest flow is giving way to a "western trough." When low pressure spins over the Rockies, Minnesota turns wet.

This pattern can eject a series of eastbound storms toward Minnesota.

The next system could arrive with potentially heavy rains next Tuesday.

More systems in the pipeline could bring more April showers in the following week.

Overall, it's a very encouraging trend. And one that could significantly change our "drought trajectory" for the better heading into the spring and summer of 2013.

Stay tuned.

PH

Warmer days ahead: Tracking our spring warm up; Warm "Tax Day 2013?"

Posted at 5:49 PM on April 1, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Red Numbers

I'm easily pleased and entertained.

Throw a few weather maps and graphics my way with cool patterns and pretty colors and I can amuse myself for hours.

One thing that been missing lately from the weather maps? The color red.

You don't need a weatherman to know red means "warm" in weather.

I'm starting to see a lot more red on the weather maps over Minnesota in the next few weeks.

You'll be feeling it.

For all the possible weather and climate angles today, there's really only one question I'm getting from Minnesotans. When will spring weather....real spring weather arrive for good?

I may have some good news.

In this Updraft we track the warm up. Is the season's 1st 60F day in sight? The first 70F?

All Uphill:

Or is it downhill?

Either way, we're at rock bottom now for April, and for the rest of the season.

Monday's high of 36F brought the 2nd coldest Twins Home Opener on record.

Tuesday morning's metro temp near 20F (near 0F up north) will likely be the coldest until November.

By afternoon, temps near 39F, sunshine and light winds will be almost tolerable.

Then the warm up kicks in.

Temps warm to 50F by Wednesday, the lower 50s Thursday and Friday. If you believe the Euro...we could get closer to 60F in southern Minnesota by Saturday.

Progress.

Looking way out in the Weather Lab crystal ball, there is hope for much warmer air in Minnesota.

It's too soon to put more than a little faith in these maps & numbers, but the overall pattern looks more favorable for the first sustained surge of springtime warmth in about 2 weeks.

With a "positive AO" pattern...the maps would seem to reflect bigger changes in overall circulation patterns in the northern hemisphere.

That could allow a sustained southerly wind flow...

and the potential for 60s and even a few 70s in Minnesota by around April 15-17th.

This far out this is not really what I would call a credible "forecast." More like an outlook....and hopefully not just a dreamy "wishcast."

One thing is certain. The 70s will arrive...eventually.

A warm "Tax Day 2013?

We "earned" it this year.

PH

No Foolin': Coldest March in 11 years? Frosty opener; 50F by Wednesday?

Posted at 8:33 AM on April 1, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Warming Trend

It gets better this week. It has to. Baseball season is here.

Twins cacther Joe Mauer & Yankees Mark Teixeira on warmer days at Target Field.
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News

April comes in swinging with what may be the coldest Twins Baseball home opener on record today. It was 34F at the old "Met" back in 1962 when the Twins threw the 1st pitch.

Grab your Twins colored underalls today for a trip to Target Field, and plan on getting a good spot by the "heaters."

Did we really just endure the coldest March in 11 years? The coldest of any month vs. average since 2007?

In this Updraft we look at an improving forecast, and track a warming trend that kicks in Wednesday. No foolin'

We logged 56F in the metro Saturday. Is our 1st 60 degree day in sight?

Coldest March in 11 years?

As always we await the final numbers for confirmation, but it appears we just endured the coldest March in 11 years.

Where were you in March 2002?

That was the last March in Minnesota colder than the one we just endured. March 2013 also showed incredible variability compared to last March, which was the warmest on record. It was also the snowiest March in 5 years.

Some chilling numbers:

-21.1F temps vs. last March in the Twin Cities
-5.6F March temps vs. average this year
13.8" March snowfall at MSP Airport
49.3" Season snowfall at MSP Airport
54.4" 30 year average season snowfall

TGI April!

Warming Trend Ahead:

We've documented today's likely coldest Twins home opener on record.

The good news? The forecast looks much better if you have tickets for Wednesday & Thursday games this week at Target Field.

Light winds and temps in the upper 30s will feel better Tuesday afternoon, and the real warming trend kicks in with temps near 50F by Wednesday & Thursday.

April Showers?

A slow moving rain system slides in Friday. It should be warm enough for mostly rain...maybe ending as a few wet snowflakes Saturday.

In southern Minnesota, the top few inches of soil may be unfrozen enough to soak in about .50" rainfall later this week.

First 60F in sight?

We managed to sneak up to 56F in the metro Saturday, and it felt remarkably good. It also busted some pessimistic forecasts that ensured us we wouldn't hit 40F again in March a week or two ago.

I'm not buying the farm on this one just yet, but there are signs of a bigger warming trend late next week, or by around April 15-17th.

One thing we watch for is a shift in the AO, which has been running extremely negative (cold) in March.

There are signs the AO is ready to swing positive, and that could mean some true springtime temperatures well into the 60s in southern Minnesota in the next 2 weeks.

Stay tuned!

PH

Springy Saturday; Coldest Twins Opener on record Monday? Updated flood risk

Posted at 2:50 PM on March 29, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Taste of Spring

At least we're making progress.

Friday's afternoon's mixed sun and the warmest temps of the year so far felt remarkably good.

The Weather Lab thermometer in the west metro finally hit 50F Friday PM for the first time in 2013.

Only in Minnesota does 50 degrees in the sun feel like spring, but after this persistent winter, we'll take it.

The weather maps take another step forward...then 2 steps back in the next few days.

In this Updraft we look at the some encouraging overall trends in the maps, and preview what could challenge as the coldest home opener in Minnesota Twins history Monday.

Play Ball!?

Weekend Split: Mild Saturday gives way to Easter chill

Our weekend features half spring, half wintery relapse.

Saturday may feel like a carbon copy of Friday. A few morning showers should give way to some afternoon sun. As the strong near April sun peeks out, temps will make another run at 50 in the metro...with 50s likely in now snow free areas of southern Minnesota.

Sunday's cold front leaves no doubt that it's still March. Look for frigid northwest breezes and temps falling back into the 30s for Easter Sunday.

Going...going....

Our late week warm up has done a number on snow cover in southern Minnesota. We've melted 6" of snow in the metro in the past week.

The Twin Cities sported an 8" snow pack late last week. By Friday morning snow cover at MSP was down to 2".

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
730 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
DLH : DULUTH MN : 46 / 22 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 16
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 46 / 11 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 24
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 44 / 32 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 2
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 40 / 25 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 8
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 39 / 27 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 11

There's still plenty of deep snow up north, but check out Thursday's NASA MODIS Terra 250 meter resolution image south of the metro.

You can clearly see the rapidly eroding snow cover over southern Minnesota, with the leading edge of the "snow free zone" working its way north up the Minnesota River Valley from Mankato.

Image: NASA

NWS Hydrology: Updated flood risk for Upper Midwest

The Twin Cities NWS "hydrology" diivision updated the outlook Friday. The extra snow in March and a delayed snow melt have increased flood risk in some areas.

The following locations have a normal risk for flooding.

•St Cloud on the Sauk River
•Redwood Falls on the Redwood River
•Mayer on the South Fork of Crow River
•New Ulm on the Cottonwood River
•Granite Falls on the Minnesota River
•Savage on the Minnesota River
•Anoka on the Mississippi River
•Minneapolis on the Mississippi River
•St Paul on the Mississippi River
•Hastings on the Mississippi River
•Lock and Dam 3 on the Mississippi River
•Red Wing on the Mississippi River
•Stillwater on the St Croix River
•Fall Creek on the Eau Claire River - In Wisconsin

While severe to extreme drought conditions still exist still across the region, precipitation from December 2012 through the end of March has been near normal to even above normal in some areas. Hence some regions do have a decent snow pack. Snow depths of 1.5 to over 2 feet are common in the upper Minnesota and Mississippi River Valleys.

Water in the Snowpack or Snow Water Equivalents - March 25, 2013

In the areas with deeper snowpack, water equivalents (shown below) of 4 to 6 inches are common.

Bottom line? With 4" to 6" of water in the snowpack over western & central Minnesota, there's still pelnty of risk for high water this spring on area rivers. A rapid warmup and rain in early April will increase that risk.

Cold Opener: Football weather for Twins Opening Day Monday

You knew this would happen eventually when the Twins moved outdoors in 2012.

Target Field has been blessed with great opening day weather the past 3 seasons.

2010 68F
2011 64F
2012 48F

Pete Boulay of the MN Climate Working Group put together this excellent look back at the history of opening day "outdoor baseball" weather for the Twins.

Metropolitan Stadium in 1981
Courtesy: Wikipedia

April 1, 2013 will be the earliest outdoor opener in Twins History in Minnesota.

April in Minnesota is a transitional month. The weather can fluctuate wildly from some fairly hot days to some very chilly readings and even some snowfall. The Minnesota Twins returned to outdoor baseball in 2010. The Twins also played outdoor baseball from 1961 to 1981 at Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington and then moved to the Metrodome from 1982 to 2009. For the 21 home openers played at Metropolitan Stadium and the three home openers played so far at Target Field, there's been a variety of weather conditions. The coldest home opener was April 14, 1962 with a high of 34 degrees and a low of 20 that day reported at the Twin Cities International Airport. Winds were quite brisk and gusting to 21mph out of the NW in the afternoon. The Minnesota Twins lost to the California Angels that day 5-12. The warmest opener was April 22, 1980 with a high temperature of 90 degrees. The Twins played the California Angels on this opener too, this time the Twins won 8-1. The average high temperature for the day on the dates for the home openers over the 24 years is 60 degrees.

There's been a trace of snow reported at the International Airport on only one day that the Twins had an outdoor opener. This was on April 23, 1972- ironically the latest outdoor home opener. The afternoon had temperatures in the low 40's with rain showers and a few ice pellets mixed in.

This year's home opener will feel more like a Vikings game at the old Met.

Another surge of frigid Canadian high presure builds in Sunday night & Monday. That should mean plenty of sunshine, but temps will not climb out of the low to mid 30s Monday afternoon in the metro.

Factor in the wind and it will feel like 22F.

The good news about Target Field? It has a built-in microclimate.

With the tall backside of the stadium blocking most of the chilly northwest winds, the sheltered concourse and overhead heaters will make it feel pretty decent "inside." And it's always a nice day in the Legend's Club.

There are plenty of places to hide from the weather at TF. But for those intrepid enough to tough it out for 9 innings in your exposed seat in the outfield Monday, bring your stadium blanket and your underalls. It's going to be an endurance test.

Hitters might get a whole new feeling taking a 90 mph fastball off the bat handle at 35F Monday!

PH

A few degrees milder on Friday, showers exit into Wisconsin on Saturday

Posted at 4:07 PM on March 28, 2013 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Freezing rain, Snow cover, Spring 2013

The thick snow cover in the Red River Valley was keeping temperatures in the middle to upper 30s this afteroon. Meanwhile, the mercury has broken 50 F in southwest Minnesota.

Temperatures at 4 p.m. CDT.

Source: Intellicast.com

The NOAA GOES displays the snow cover in eastern North Dakota through Minnesota and into Wisconsin. The forested area of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin masks the foot and a half of snow depth.

A few light showers were falling from the clouds between Yankton, S.D. and Sioux City, Iowa.

Temperatures are expected to fall to seasonal lows by daybreak, as the nearly calm air radiates heat back into the atmosphere.

The thermometer got quite a workout at Crane Lake in the past twenty-fours. The high temperature yesterday was 46 F The mercury bottomed-out at 3 F this morning.

Our source of air is coming from a west northwest direction at mid levels. Winds have already turned to south in western Minnesota at the surface, allowing temperatures to climb to 54 degrees at Pipestone at 4 p.m. CDT

Jet stream this afternoon from the NAM indicating the overhead winds at about 25 thousand feet.

Source: NOAA NAM/College of Dupage

A weak short wave in the jet stream passes through the eastern Dakotas and into Wisconsin on Friday and Saturday. Showers are likely to form with this weather-maker. Some of the moisture could fall as freezing rain from Duluth north on Friday night.

The NAM has added some momentum to this system and could help accelerate much of the precipitation out of eastern Minnesota early Saturday afternoon.

NAM precipitation in liquid for the six-hour period ending at 1 p.m. CDT on Thursday.

Precipitation in liquid from NAM on Saturday morning.
Source:NOA/College of Dupage

If we get breaks in the clouds on Saturday afternoon the temperature has a good chance of reaching 50 in southern Minnesota.

On Sunday the jet stream steers much cooler air into the upper Midwest. Note the two separate cores of 100 knot winds, suggesting a re-enforcing shot of cold air on Monday.

250mb winds valid on Sunday at 7 p.m. CDT
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

High temperatures on Easter Sunday will likely occur around noon and will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Expect northwest winds to gust over 25 mph during the afternoon.

When Paul returns hopefully he can promise a moderation that will last as we move through April,

Craig Edwards

More like spring, as temperatures tumble Sunday

Posted at 6:24 AM on March 28, 2013 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Cold, Spring 2013

Sunshine and light winds combined to make it a feel-good day on Wednesday. Let's repeat that formula one more day!

There looks to be a better opportunity to reach the lower 50s in southern Minnesota on Friday as a push of milder air gains a little more momentum in the Central Plains.

A convergence of winds in the mid atmosphere on Friday night and Saturday will result in the development of precipitation. Some of the pecipitation could fall as sleet/freezing rain and snow in northeast Minnesota late Friday night.

The forecast from the NAM delivers a quarter inch or more of liquid precipitation from 1 a.m. CDT Saturday to 7 a.m. CDT on Saturday.

The NWS forecast from the Duluth office has the details:

Friday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain after 1a.m.. Low around 29 degrees. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow before 10 a.m., then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46 degrees. Southwest wind 5-10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Precipitation continues to track east on Saturday. The most likely time period for rain in eastern Minnesota comes Saturday morning.

Meteorologists from NOAA NCEP have integrated their talent with the model data and delivered this forecast for liquid precipitation amounts on Saturday.

A change in the wind ushers in colder air on Easter Sunday. Tempeatures remain steady or fall slightly in the afternoon.

A chilly wind stirs up the hot dog wrappers at Target Field on Monday afternoon.

Wind direction, speed in knots. A knot is about 1.2 mph. The long wind barbs are 10 knots. Half a barb is 5 knots.

Expect winds to gust up to 25 mph on Monday afternoon.

Enjoy the next couple of days.

Craig Edwards

Twins' Groundskeeper looking for milder days; "Peak" snow cover in Minnesota

Posted at 8:02 AM on March 21, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Slow March Into Spring

I like days like today.

As we begin the transition into a Minnesota spring, there are certain milestones that become apparent.

The last big snowstorm of winter? Probably behind us now.

The last "coldest day" of winter? Probably happened Wednesday. I highly doubt we'll see another day this spring with a high colder than 21F.

This winter was definitely "back loaded" with cold & snow in February & March.

Looking ahead, I see encouraging signs that we will now start a slow, gradual climb to more spring like temperatures.

In this Updraft we'll talk about the deepest snow of winter in Minnesota, look ahead to a warming trend and take a swing at the early forecast for the earliest Twins Home Opener so far outdoors at Target Field on April 1st.

The crack of a baseball bat? I feel warmer already.

Twins vs. Yankees in milder days
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News

Play Ball! Cool Twins Opening Day?

Ten days from Thursday, 40-thousand spring hungry fans, and one meteorologist named Craig will make the 1st pilgrimage of the baseball season to Target Field.

One guy who would really appreciate warmer days is Twins Head groundkeeper Larry DiVito. I aksed Larry where they stand given our frigid "spring" so far and here's what he had to say.

Paul; thank you for that (forecast) info. Here is where I am at:

Soil temps are hovering around 60-62* F all this week. I will bump that up a bit this weekend as we move forward with our maintenance plan. Our turf blankets, which are permeable, were put on again last Saturday afternoon, the 16th. We will pull them off, hopefully for good, this Saturday. As long as lows at night stay above the low 20's, the blankets are not needed.

We were able to fertilize on March 14th, twice. We sprayed nutrients early and I put granular fertilizer out late that day. Some turf in the deep shade is struggling, as expected in a March like this. The warning track is not fully heated, so we will focus on thawing that starting this weekend. Looking forward to the return of the Twins. Larry

Larry says the underground turf heating system at TF is working well. Hey, where do I get one of those for my yard to melt the snow away?

It's too early to bank on a specific forecast for Larry and the rest of us for opening day, but it should come as no surprise that the early read looks chilly, and potentially wet.

The long range GFS suggests a weather system passing south of Minnesota on April 1st. If it's close to right, that would keep most of the rain south...and a weaker bubble of cool high pressure overhead.

Potentially that could translate into mixed sun and temps in the 40s on game day.

I don't buy the 60s the GFS cranks out here just yet, but I do think we will be significantly warmer by the end of the 1st week of April.

That would be a pretty good outcome considering the run of cold and snow we've just endured...and considering that we average about 3" of snow in April.

Again this is a forecast that could potentially still change, A lot.

"Peak" Snow Depth:

Take a look out your window.

That's as much snow as you're going to see on your lawn or farm field until next winter.

We are likely at peak snow depth, for this winter season this week in Minnesota.

Our late season snow blitz has added 2 to 3 feet of snow to much of Minnesota since February 1st. Some numbers.

Total snowfall since February 1st

28.9" MSP Airport
31.6" Duluth
33.1" St. Cloud
35.4" International Falls
39.0" Fargo

Trapped in that compressing snow pack is 3" to 6" of water (SWE) over most of western and central Minnesota. The Twin Cities has between 2" to 3" of stored water in the snow. Near International Falls and along the North Shore ridge, as much as 6" to 8" of water may be ready to be unleashed into rivers and lakes as temps warm this spring.

Frozen ground underneath the snow pack means the spring melt won't help the agricultural (soils) drought much, but the "equivalent" of 3" to 6" of rainfall will give a significant boost to river and lake levels (and ease "hydrological" drought) this spring.

Spring Simmer:

Spring last year was a rapid boil in Minnesota as highs soared into the 70s. This spring will be more like a simmer...but I do see clear indications of warmer days ahead.

This latest batch of cold air has effectively "drained" most of the coldest air from Canada.

It seems counter intuitive, but getting colder in March is one way we warm up in spring. Cold air masses surge south from Canada and are modified by stronger sun. The remaining air masses in the far north are less severe, and more easily warmed by increasing solar intensity and daylight that is now rapidly growing past 12 hours a day.

Check out the realtively bearable forecast for Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories from Environment Canada. Yellowknife is about 1,400 miles northwest of the Twin Cities.

Thursday will feel better here in Minnesota, with sunshine, mid 20s and lighter winds.

30s will return this weekend, and snow melting 40s are looking more likely by late next week.

Stay tuned!

PH

"Spring" arrives; "Average" winter; Sunday snow stays south?

Posted at 8:50 AM on March 20, 2013 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Astronomical Spring 2013

To astronomers, today is an important day on the calendar.

At precisely 6:02 AM today, the sun crossed directly over the equator on its annual trek northward into the northern hemisphere.

The increasing daylight will eventually lead to warmer days, melting snow, and temps that will finally end this barbaric deep freeze we call March 2013.

Today in Updraft we explore the winter that was, the "spring" such as it is, and look ahead for signs of warmer weather on the horizon.

Is it April yet?

"Make no big decisions in Minnesota in March." - Dave Moore WCCO TV News legend

"Spring" Arrives:

It happened quietly and without fanfare.

When the sun crossed the equator at 6:02 AM CDT this morning, spring began in the northern hemisphere. It's called the Vernal Equinox.

"Equinox" means "Equal Night." There is roughly 12 hours of daylight and darkness everywhere on earth today.

At noon today the sun will be roughly 45-degrees above the southern horizon in the Twin Cities. It climbs higher in the sky each day, until it reaches peak at about 68.5 degrees above the southern horizon at noon on June 21st this year.

The increasing daylight adds up, and we go from 12 hours today...to 15 hours and 36 minutes of daylight by the summer solstice.

The extra daylight and solar energy is important, because eventually it will heat up the northern hemisphere and bring us milder temps. It's just a painfully slow process for many Minnesotans this year.

Hang in there...warmer days and melting snow are truly close at hand.

Last "coldest" day?

Winter overstays her welcome one more day this year.

Today will be the "last coldest" day this season in Minnesota. It truly is all uphill (or downhill?) from here.

I don't think we'll see another day this cold until December of this year.

Tomorrow will feel much better, with little wind and temps in the mid-upper 20s. We crack 30-degrees by Friday and into the weekend.

Baby steps.

Milder days ahead?

The overall pattern looks gradually warmer in the next week.

40 degrees should pay us a visit by the middle of next week.

Looking further ahead, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) suggest a shift into the positive phase. That usually brings warmer weather to Minnesota.

After a strongly "negative phave" event of the AO this week, There are signs the AO could go strongly "positive" in early April...and we could see a string of snow melting days in the 40s...and maybe some 50s in the next 2-3 weeks.

We got burned by a "false positive" AO forecast two weeks ago, so I'm keeping my hopes low, but the signs are good.

"Average" Winter:

Yes, this truly is a "real winter" in Minnesota this season.

Still, for all the legitimate complaints about the cold I've heard lately, "meteorological winter" was pretty close to average in Minnesota.

-Temps average +1.0F at MSP. (Dec-Mar)

-Season snowfall so far is almost exactly average...with 49.3" so far at MSP Airport...just +0.2" vs. average.

-An "average" winter brings 54.4" of snowfall to the Twin Cities.

-Last winter we eked out just 23.3"

It's March that has been unusually cruel with temps -5.0F so far this month. This winter has been "back loaded" with the bulk of the cold and snow coming since February 1st.

Sunday Snow Chances: Staying south of Minnesota?

The vast majority of the more reliable forecast models steer a winter storm south of Minnesota Sunday. The Euro & Canadian GEM lead the way.

NOAA's GFS has been tracking the low further north Tuesday...but the overnight GFS runs bumped the storm to the south in line with the other models.

I'm leaning toward the southern solution which looks credible to me given the upper air pattern. The best bet is that the snow will stay south of Minnesota this weekend.

Right now I don't see any significant snow events in the forecast.

Weather fingers and toes crossed.

PH

Monday storm delivers; "Spring" begins Wednesday; Milder days ahead?

Posted at 7:35 PM on March 18, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Old Fashioned March

Welcome to an "old fashioned" Minnesota March.

This is how I remember March as a school kid.

Some of us still enjoy the late season snow.

But I can relate to many "snow weary" Minnesotans who must feel like Dana Carvey's "Grumpy Old Man" on SNL after a March like this.
(Warning: Humor in link above may be inappropriate for some.)

Image: NBC SNL

Our latest wintery blast of snow, wind and cold has many of us searching for our sense of humor in these chilly March days.

Forgive my brief digression, but here's my best take on our March 2013 version of "Minnesota's Grumpy Old Man."

'It was never 80 degrees on St. Paaatty's Day when I was a kid."

"The snow drifts were so big we had to walk through snow up to our chest on the walk home. The wind was bitter, and our face was frozen, and our socks were wet.

And we liked it!"

Well at least we didn't know any better.

But one thing was for sure. One day soon, the air would thaw and the strong spring sunshine would melt away the drifts...and we would splash in puddles once again as winter finally metlted away.

In thus Updraft we wrap up our latest March snow blitz, Look forward to "spring" and try and find some "silver linings" in the forecast.

Respectable Storm:

This storm had all the elements of a "respectable" Minnesota winter storm.

The northerly storm track panned out. So did the forecast snowfall totals, winds and blizzard conditions. For once the storm behaved pretty much as expected, and the forecast models came together on a much needed consensus within 24-48 hours before the storm arrived.

Here's a look at some (preliminary) snowfall totals around Minnesota, which included a general 2" to 4" around the metro and some 5" to 10" totals up north.

-Twin Cities snowfall reports
-Northeast Minnesota snowfall reports
-Red River Valley & northwest MN reports

Cold Next:

Yes "astronomical" spring begins Wednesday at 6:02am CDT.

If only the weather maps could read the calendar.

An unseasonably cold northwest flow in the wake of our Monday storm will funnel unseasonably cold air in for most of this week.

Deep Snow:

There is certainly plenty of snow for winter lovers in Minnesota these days, especially up north.

Gordon Hommes is the trusty NWS coop weather observer just northwest of Two Harbors. I've had the pleasure of a cup of coffee, and to talk a little weather with Gordon in Two Harbors. I tweeted his report from Monday...with over 2 feet of snow on the ground now.

Let me just take a moment to say how much we as meteorologists appreciate the dedicated NWS coop observers like Gordon in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. These volunteers provide extremely valuable weather data every day...rain or shine. These critical observations fill in some big data gaps, and provide important "ground truth" to what we're seeing on radar and satellite during storm events like this week. Thanks to Gordon and all the NWS observers out there!

Here are some more impressive (NWS) snow depth reports for March 18th.

International Falls 28"
Duluth 23"
Fargo 20"
St. Cloud 17"
Eau Claire 14"
MSP Airport 8"

Looking at the latest snow depth analysis from NOHRSC, it looks like most of the northern half of Minnesota has well over 1 foot of snow on the ground...with 2-3 feet in some spots.

Image: NOHRSC

Searching for Spring:

Some good news?

The air mass should begin to modify a bit after Wednesday, and by this weekend there are signs we could see temps push toward the 30s. We'll see.

The longer range trends do seem to support temp moderation...a warm... up as we head toward April. Here's the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook, which suggests a better chance for more "Normal" temps by around April 1st which is 2 weeks away.

Average high by April 1st in the metro? 50F.

No foolin'.

Hang in there!

PH

Another snowy Monday AM commute; Blizzard warnings west of metro

Posted at 12:01 AM on March 18, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Monday Storm Arrives: Snow burst then wind

Our next weathermaker is lashing Minnesota with another blast of wintery weather on this Monday. The late Sunday night model runs and radar trends continue to support the notion of a heavy snowburst Monday morning, followed by increasing winds Monday afternoon and evening.

If any trends are emerging early this Monday AM, it may be to favor the lower end of my snowfall forecast range below.

Here are some quick headlines for our latest storm.

-A deepening low pressure system is coming together over Minnesota overnight. The system will bring a blast of snow, followed by high winds and blowing snow in open areas Monday.

-Blizzard Warnings are in effect today and include far west metro counties.

-Winter Weather Advisories include the Twin Cities metro.

-Could this be the last significant winter storm of the season in the metro?

In this Updraft update we'll check the storm track, the snow totals and the wind which will give us an old fashioned January blizzard...in March.

And a year ago today it was 80F in the metro.

Here's the latest "multimedia briefing" on the storm from the Twin Cities NWS.

Storm Track: Model "consensus?"

It looks like the forecast models may have finally reached consensus on the track of Monday's storm. The NAM, GFS, Euro and (finally) the Canadian GEM model all track a deepening surface low from near Aberdeen, SD to near Duluth Monday.

The northerly track falvors laying down the heaviest snows across the northern half of Minnesota.

Timing:

The main "frontal band" of moderate to heavy snow should is moving through Minnesota early this Monday morning.

Look for the heaviest burst of snow with the frontal band between about 3 am and 9 am in the metro. Snow should taper off suddenly from west to east this morning on the systems back side. We may see some additonal wrap around snow later Monday PM, mainly north of the metro.

Unfortunately, the timing and intensity of the snow burst right before AM rush means yet another messy Monday AM commute.

Snowfall Totals:

Our initial impressions Friday suggested the heaviest snows would favor the northern half of Minnesota, and that still looks very likely.

All weather is local as they say, so how much snow is likely in your backyard with this system?

Northwest Minnesota should see the heaviest totals where 6" to 10" will fall.

Lake and terrain induced (orographic) snow bursts will enhance snow on the ridge above Lake Superior. That could produce some hefty snowfall totals on the ridge above the North Shore communities.

In southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities, most of the accumulating snow will come with the "frontal band" as it moves through early Monday AM. That will limit the duration of moderate to heavy to snowfall 3-6 hours, but snowfall should be intense enough (.50" to 1" per hour) during that time frame to produce 2" to 4" snow totals in the metro.

Because the storm is deepening as it moves east, the best chance for 4"+ should be in the northeast metro.

Wind Whipped:

The main feature with the storm later Monday will be high winds. It only takes a few inches of fresh snow...and winds over 40 mph to generate a blizzard.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...
GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...
GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...
ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...
OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

827 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
CDT TUESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS...INCLUDING NEAR ZERO IN OPEN AREAS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF
LATE MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

Look for northwest wind gusts to 40 mph + in open areas west of the metro Monday, and Blizzard Warnings are in effect for that reason.

Blowing snow, reduced visibilities and drifting over roadways will make for dicey travel by Monday afternoon.

The Good News: Last big winter storm of the season?

After Monday, the rest of the week looks quiet. Other than a few flurries, I don't see any more significant snowfall in sight this week...and maybe for the rest of the spring. I'm not making that a declarative statement yet...I think it will snow again, and we can still see snow in April. But the maps do look encouraging, and I'd say there's a better than 50% chance that this is our last significant snow storm ( combination of snow, wind & arctic cold) of the winter season.

Somewhat milder temps should arrive next week.

Bold Prediction: Spring will eventually arrive, the sun will shine and the snow will melt. It will get warmer in Minnesota in the next few weeks. And there will be sunny days, and baseball.

In the mean time, the early long range look out to April 1st and the Twins opening day at Target Field looks seasonably cool (40s?)...and potentially wet. Of course that forecast can... and probably will change.

Let's hope it changes for the better!

PH

Icy AM rush then 1" to 3"+ snow through tonight; Watching Monday storm potential

Posted at 2:27 AM on March 15, 2013 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Blinking Weatherball

"Colors blinking by night and day say, precipitation's on the way!"

If you're old enough to get the reference, you would know that more snow is on the way.

For my younger readers, here's the story.

Back in the day, we're talking 1960s & '70s now, a local bank had a thing called the "Weatherball."

The big brightly lit dome over the bank building would flash, or change colors to reflect weather changes in the forecast. There were several locations in the Twin Cities that had "weather balls." (I always wondered... who flipped the switch to change the colors?)

Check out the classic, cheesy "Weather Ball" jingle.

KARE 11's John Croman wrote a nice piece on the Weather Ball a few years ago.

The Weather Ball is getting a work out these days, and blinking for ice and snow today.

Expect some potentially icy and dicey commutes.

40F high temp at MSP Thursday (1st 40F since Jan 18th)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest NWS advisories

Clipper #2: Icy AM mix trends to all snow later

Today's clipper looks stronger, and will produce an icy AM mix...which will transition to all snow later today.

A early AM mix of freezing rain and possible sleet greets commuters this morning.

It looks like we may see 2 separate shors of precip today. The early AM mix...then a break around midday, then all snow returns PM & evening.

Widespread totals in the 1" to 3"+ range in the metro seem likely by Friday evening, with the best chance for 3"+ in the north metro.Heavier snow of 3" to 6" is likley from the far north metro northward to St. Cloud, Mille Lacs and Rice Lake.

The European Model "meteogram" below lays out the hour by hour snowfall scenario Friday.

You'll notice the cooler breezes tonight as colder air pushes in for the weekend.

Quiet Weekend:

Saturday and most of Sunday look sunny, but colder with highs generally in the 20s across Minnesota.

Sunday Night & Monday snow: Track trending north - Upgraded Canadian GEM Model leads the way

The latest forecast trends with our incoming snow system Sunday night & Monday reflect a northward shift in the potential storm track.

This winter, Environment Canada (Canada's NOAA) significantly upgraded their numerical weather forecast models. The results were stunning, and the side by side model tests appear to have shown improvements that take decades to achieve.

Here's part of the statement from Evinviroment Canada.

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN A DECADE.

A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS

The finer resolution and better model performance now makes the GEM a serious competitor to the often reliable European Model (ECMWF)

Live Weather Blogs has an interesting take on the changes.

Today the Canadians announced a MAJOR upgrade to their model. FIRST they now going to run it 2x a day out to 240 hours. Over the past several years they have not done that with the afternoon or 12 run .

SECOND the model resolution will improve significantly from 33KM to 25KM.

THIRD and the MOST important the entire model is being upgraded to the vastly superior 4DVAR system... just like the one used in the European model.

FOURTH the Canadian Met center review which is been pretty meticulous has showed a major increase the Canadians model accuracy and a significant lowering in its ROOT MEAN ERROR scores.

It will be very interesting to see the next few weeks or months if the Canadian model actually verifies the preliminary testing of significant improvement with the 4DVAR. It would not surprise me if the Canadian model moved into second place behind the European as the most reliable model.... Assuming the initial assessment from the Canadians is correct.

Here's the Canadian GEM forecast showing a weaker system tracking further north Monday.

In the past 24 hours, the GEM and Euro have shown a trend toward a more northward track on Monday's system, and a corresponding reduction in potential snowfall totals for the metro. NOAA's GFS model is playing catch up as usual, and now agrees with the northward track trend.

If modle trends are right, that would lay the heaviest snow band north of the metro from Alex through Brainerd, St. Cloud and Duluth.

The Twin Cities should still see snow...but we may not get in on the heaviest totals from this storm. The northward trend is causing many of the modles to back off on potential metro snowfall.

Between the two systems Friday & Monday, some areas should see a pile of snow. The GFS picks up on the general idea.

GFS Snowfall totals from 2 systems Friday & Monday
Image wxcaster.com

Track changes as the models try and grasp incoming systems is the reason we don't put specific "inches" on snowfall forecasts until about 24 hours before the storm. It's hard enough to try and nail snowfall 24 hours out...and pretty much impossible to be credible beyond that. Especially 3-4 days out.

For now the likeiest scenario is that we will see some potentially "plowable" snow Sunday night & Monday in the metro, with trends favoring the heaviest snow just north.

Regardless of eventual snowfall totals, high winds and colder air by Monday night look to make travel difficult.

Stay tuned as we follow potential storm track changes heading into the weekend.

PH

Sky show tonight; AM Micro Clipper; Watching Friday & Monday snow

Posted at 5:38 PM on March 13, 2013 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Spring 2013

Snowy Dusting

Our next Clipper in the late winter surge of 2013 rolls in just in time for AM rush Thursday.

Not a big deal by Minnesota standards, but this seems to be the winter of... how little snow is "just enough" to gum up the rush hour works?

In this Updraft we'll track and time 3 incoming weather systems, and talk about a sky show that should be worth watching the next few nights.

73F high temp at MSP Airport last year on March 14th

Sky Show: Comet PANSTAARS visible next few (clear) nights

Wednesday and Thursday evenings should be clear enough to see a rare sight in the western sky after sunset.

The Comet PANSTARRS will be visible to the naked eye (but better with binoculars) in the west just after sunset for the next couple of weeks.

Some details from the Duluth NWS.

Stargazers - Heads' Up For Comet PANSTARRS

Comet PANSTARRS (officially C/2011 LR (PANSTARRS)), will be visible in the northern hemisphere, including Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, for the next couple of weeks. Comet PANSTARRS is named for the telescope and project group of scientists who discovered the comet back in 2011 - the Panoramic Survey Telescope And Rapid Response System.

Comet PANSTARRS will be visible to the naked eye in the western skies shortly after sunset, and will be located just below the constellation Pisces and just to the left of the constellation Pegasus. It may be somewhat hard to see through the bright glow of the sunset afterglow, as the comet will be low to the horizon.

Of particular interest for photographers, tonight and tomorrow, March 12 and 13, comet PANSTARRS will be very near the evening crescent moon. The comet is expected to be about as bright as a magnitude 1 or 2 star - or about as bright as the stars in the Big Dipper. The comet will gradually become less bright this weekend and next week as it moves farther from the sun, but that decrease in brightness may be offset by the comet being visible later after sunset as it moves away from the sun, and thus visible in darker skies next week. Of course, the comet being visible is also highly dependent on having clear skies for viewing!

Thursday AM snow shot:

What would rush hour be without a little snow?

Thursday morning's Micro Clipper is small, but timing is everything as they say.

The system will spread snow into eastern Minnesota after midnight, and should wind down during AM rush. I'm expecting an inch or less in most areas, but with temps in the 20s that could be "just enough" to gum up the works for AM rush.

Plan accordingly.

The good news? The sun will come out again by Thursday afternoon, and our higher March sun angle and temps above freezing should mean whatever falls Thursday morning will be gone for PM drive time.

Thursday PM looks nice...and highs should reach the upper 30s at least. With light winds it will feel nice out there!

Clipper #2 Friday:

Friday's clipper looks a little stronger, especially for northern Minnesota where 2" to 4" could fall.

The metro will ride the ragged edge of freezing, which could mean some mixed precip trending toward a little slushy snow. As temps fall Friday night, things will ice up...so be ready for that.

Monday, Monday:

This winter seems to have a cruel sense of humor... likes to snow on Mondays. I count 6 Monday snow events since February's snow blitz began.

All major models are still brining a stronger weather system our way Sunday night and Monday.

There are still details to be worked out with storms tracks, but looking at this it seems hard to find a scenario where we don't get a "plowable" snow event.

Things can still change, but right now it seems it's not a matter of if we'll get snow...more like how many inches.

As we say in the weather biz.....stay tuned.

PH

Sunshine Watch; Milder; NWS "Impact Based" Warnings coming to Minnesota

Posted at 6:17 PM on March 12, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Sunshine Panic

The phones rang off the hook at the Weather Lab Tuesday. Frantic callers reported a strange, bright yellow object in the sky.

The alarms quieted down considerably as a few grey clouds drifted overhead, and scattered snowflakes floated gently earthward once again. Calm and civil order were restored.

Tuesday's sunshine was a welcome spirit booster. If the maps are right, we'll see even more sun Wednesday. Alert the media.

My latest weather musings include the NWS decision to roll out "Impact Based" severe weather warnings for 2013 in Minnesota and the Midwest. We'll also track some sunshine, milder temps and evaluate our snow chances in the next week.

Weather has a way of balancing out over time, and it appears this March is trying to make up for last year's record warmth.

Is it April yet?

Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun
And I say it's all right - Here Comes the Sun - The Beatles

Sunshine at the Weather Lab Tuesday
Image: Paul Huttner -MPR News

Walkin' On Sunshine

Our partly sunny Tuesday interlude looks for a repeat performance Wednesday.

As the center of high pressure drifts overhead, there should be enough dry, sinking air to produce mostly sunny skies. Sunshine is never a guarantee with narrow high pressure ridges in winter & spring, but I think Wednesday's "ridge" should have enough oomph to provide some decent sun with just a few renegade clouds.

Any sun seems welcome these days. I count 7 of 11 days at MSP so far in March before Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies, with plenty of rain, snow and fog in between.

Temps will be slow to recover though...and highs around 30F seem reasonable.

Rapid Weather Changes Ahead:

"If you don't like the weather, just wait 15 minutes."

That old weather saying holds true this week in Minnesota.

A fast moving jet stream overhead means some quick weather changes again starting Thursday.

This European Model "Meteogram" details hour by hour changes over the next 48 hours.
(As always, click to expand images for a better view)

Image: Norwegian Met Institute

Here's my best breakdown of the upcoming quick weather changes later this week.

Thursday: Possible light snow shot for AM rush hour. Trending sunnier & milder with a PM thaw. High near 39.

Friday: Milder with a chance of rain showers. High near 40.
(1" to 3" snowfall in northern Minnesota.)

Saturday: Turning sunny, blustery & colder. High 28.

Sunday: Clouds increase. High near 29.

Monday: Chance of snow. Potentially "plowable."

Comment: There is still considerable uncertainty regarding Monday's potential snow system. All models have backed off slightly on potential snow totals Monday, but the usually more reliable Euro still cranks out .51" liquid...as all snow Monday. That would translate into "several" inches if accurate.

NWS: "Impact Based" severe weather warnings coming to Minnesota

You may notice a difference in the way severe weather warnings sound in Minnesota this year. NWS is expanding the use of "Impact Based" warnings this year.

Many people in the deadly Joplin tornado of 2011 did not heed NWS warnings, and died as a result. NWS is making changes on their end to try and save lives.

The goal?

Enhanced "situational urgency" during life-threatening severe weather outbreaks.

Here are some details from NWS.

An experimental National Weather Service warning enhancement will be used across much of the central U.S. this thunderstorm season (beginning April 1). This is an expansion of a smaller NWS experiment that began in Kansas and Missouri in 2012.

The Impact Based Warning (IBW) experimental product is an effort to better communicate severe weather threats within National Weather Service warnings. While the basic function of Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings will remain the same, additional enhanced information will be provided within the warning to provide additional expected "impact" information.

The goals are to provide more information through the warnings in order to facilitate improved public response and decision making, and to better meet societal needs in the most life-threatening weather events. This effort is in response to key findings from recent service assessments of devastating tornadoes in 2011, particularly the EF-5 tornado in Joplin, MO.

PH

Mixed sun & flakes this week; Bigger snow Monday? Era of low model confidence

Posted at 9:06 AM on March 12, 2013 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Flakey Forecast

Welcome to the era of "low model confidence."

Spring and fall can be tough times for weather forecast models...aka "numerical weather prediction." (NWP)

Faster moving weather systems and bigger north-south temperature contrasts mean the models have a tougher job keeping pace. Model errors can increase this time of year, and that can leave us grasping at forecast straws.

Last week's "Snowquester" turned "No-quester" for Washington D.C. was yet another example of a forecast gone awry by the U.S. forecast models. When NBC News is telling you it's time to get a new weather computer, you might have a problem.

In this Updraft we track our chances for sunshine and snow this week, and look ahead to a potentially bigger storm next Monday.

Ugh. Is it April yet?

Mixed sun & snow showers:

It is nice to see the sun out this morning at the weather lab.

This week features some fast moving "minor" weather systems zipping overhead.

The result is some sunny peeks today, more sun tomorrow and some occasional bouts of snow showers in between.

Temps will gradually moderate by Thursday & Friday...it will feel better out there. Call me stubborn, but I think the models this week have overdone the snow and cold. I still think well see 40s likely by Friday, and maybe even as soon as Thursday.

I don't see any major snows in sight this week...but a few bouts flurries and light snow are possible today & Wednesday night. It may be warm enough for a few rain showers Friday.

Tracking Monday snow chances?

This is 6 days off, so be advised there is great uncertainty (hope?) the storm track could change.

But the Euro and GFS model suggest a decent snowmaker next Monday that could produce another "plowable" snow for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Monday.

The models are cranking out up to .75" liquid at temps cold enough for all snow...that would be a pile of snow if it actually happens.

Again it's early and this may change...but that's the way the maps read today.

Stay tuned for changes.

Era of "low model confidence":

Some of our forecast models are having a tough go these days.

Last week's "No-quester" for Washington D.C. left some serious egg on forecaster's faces, and on the suite of U.S.NWP products.

I've talked multiple times with Cathy Wurzer and Tom Crann on MPR about why the European Model often generates superior forecast products when compared to NOAA's forecast models.

Once again, "King Euro" (the ECMWF) outperformed the USA GFS & NAM models on a major weather system for the USA. This marks at least the 4th big system, (Isaac, Superstorm Sandy, the massive February Nor'easter snow storm) where the Euro has outdueled U.S. models on a major storm in the past few months.

NBC News caught on to the trend, and aired this story Friday.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I talked with University of Washington Professor (and NWP expert) Cliff Mass at AMS in Austin, TX in January. Cliff has a closer look at the latest model failure. Here are some excerpts.

So let's understand some of the failure modes. The U.S. NAM model, the main U.S. high resolution model, produced too much precipitation and so did the U.S. global GFS (but to a lesser extent). Guess what modeling system did far better than either? Yes, the European Center (ECMWF) model did a superior job. Importantly, it realistically predicted less precipitation than the U.S. models. The graphic of storm total precipitation below, provided courtesy of WeatherBell, Inc., shows DC getting about 1 inch in the ECMWF model and 1.7 inches in the U.S. GFS model. The U.S. NAM model produced even more.

So as Cliff points out, going into the Snowquester there were big differences and uncertainty in model outputs...that were not well communicated to the public by broadcasters.

The screaming message in all of this (and I am leaving a lot out) was that there was HUGE uncertainty in this forecast, uncertainty that was not communicated to the public by my profession or the media. Would decision makers have sent government workers home or cancelled schools if they knew that the chances of a big snow were marginal? I don't know....but they deserve to have had this information, and I believe they could have made better decisions.

As broadcast meteorologists it serves our listeners and viewers better to communicate forecast uncertainty when it's there. That's sometimes hard to do.

In this age of uber technology, people have come to (unreasonably) expect "perfection" from us as a profession. Sometimes we foster that unrealistic expectation by coming off as too confident about forecasts that have a large, often hidden degree of error.

Sometimes forecasters make declarative, certain sounding statements about longer range forecasts several days out that simply are not supported by the state of the science of meteorology.

The truth? Nobody's that good. Not me, not anyone else you watch, listen to or read in your perusal of weather offerings. And the models we rely on are not giving us much help these days.

We need to do a better job of communicating uncertainty when it's there in our forecasts, broadcasts and blog offerings.

PH

Snow fades S & E today; Searching for spring; 40s by Friday?

Posted at 7:40 AM on March 11, 2013 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Spring 2013

Searching for Spring

I feel a little like those cheesy internet ads these days.

"Try this one weird trick for warmer weather!"

Yes, like many Minnesotans I'm a searcher these days. I'm scanning the weather maps for any fleeting sign of milder temps, and there is hope.

It was (still is?) a "real winter" this year. Not our coldest, but with temps +1.0F vs. average for meteorological winter in Minnesota that's close enough for "cold weather" respect in most of the world.

Not a harsh winter? Tell that to the folks in Rochester and Albert Lea who woke up to a fresh 7" to 8" of snow today...on March 11th.

76.9" of snow at International Falls this winter? Almost bring backs memories of the "Die Hard" winters of the 1970s.

My weather ramblings today include counting inches from another (Monday morning) snow shot for southeast Minnesota that grazed the SE metro, and looking ahead to a hopeful forecast that may bring some much needed 40s to Minnesota late this week.

Another Snow Shot:

This time southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin hit the snow jackpot.

If you are planning travel south on I-35, Highway 52 or east on I-94 expect to run into remnant snows today.

Overnight a potent little storm dumped a band of up to 6"+ from Albert Lea through Rochester, Winona, Red Wing to Menomonie & Eau Claire & Black River Falls.

Here are some selected preliminary snowfall totals:

Menononie 5"
Minnesota Lake 6"
Winona 6.8"
Albert Lea 8"
Rochester 8.7"

Looks like the La Crosse NWS pretty much nailed the forecast call, with the exception that the system just grazed the southeast Metro with 1" to 3" of snow...and not the downtown areas.

Stark reminder that March is our 3rd snowiest of the year in Minnesota.

It snowed even harder in northwest Iowa this weekend. Check out the map from the Des Moines NWS.

More snow to melt...and run into the Mississippi watershed this spring.

Snow gradually fades today from Eau Claire to Rochester as the system slides east into Wisconsin.

Skies should brighten a bit in the metro this afternoon, while northwest half of Minnesota should enjoy some cool March sunshine.

March so far: Cool & wet

March in Minnesota is running cool & wet.

Some numbers for MSP Airport:

-1.7F March temps vs. average so far
1.37" March precip so far (263% of average)
9.3" March snowfall so far
10.3" Average total March snowfall (3rd snowiest month of the year at MSP)
44.8" Season snowfall so far (-1.0" vs. average to date)

Rays of hope: Milder days ahead?

This time of year we can all use some good weather news. Here are some positive trends.

-We did not need to shovel Saturday's rain of .61" in the metro!
-Mild weekend temps & rain reduced snow cover at MSP by 5" (11" Friday to 6" Sunday)
-There is no major snow in the forecast for MSP
-Temps will moderate by Thursday, and should reach 40F by Friday & Saturday
-The average high reaches 40F at MSP Wednesday of this week
-Astronomical Spring begins next Wednesday! (March 20th at 6:02 am)

The weather pattern will mellow by Thursday & Friday of this week. The GFS is cranking out some low 40s starting on Friday. Lets hope it verifies.

I don't see any 70s ahead like last March...but noticeably milder days are on the way later this week. This time of year it's common for the models to suddenly shift into a much warmer patter on a dime.

Hang in there folks!

PH

Weekend Slop Storm: Ice, rain & snow ahead

Posted at 3:10 PM on March 8, 2013 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

March Madness

My former WCCO-TV colleague (and Minnesota TV legend) Dave Moore said it best.

"Make no big decisions in March in Minnesota."

I miss Dave, and his gift to turn a phrase.

He nailed it. March can be a cruel month in Minnesota.

One day teases spring with sunny skies and temps pushing 40F. The next? Everything is coated with ice, rain and melting snow creates 10,000 news lakes in the streets, and slushy snow is piling up.

Welcome to a Minnesota March weekend.

In this Updraft we lay out the most likely sequence of events for this weekend's slop storm.

Is it April yet?

Round 1: Overnight ice?

Low pressure is streaming north toward Minnesota this weekend.

As it does, the first wave of moisture will roll into southern Minnesota later this evening, and hit the Twin Cities between midnight and 3am.

Temps aloft will be warm enough for rain and sleet. Here on the ground, we'll hover near the freezing mark. That means any liquid that falls will freeze on contact, and glaze ice is a possibility. The best chance of that appreas to be northwest of the metro...as metro temps try and hover just above freezing.

With temps near freezing some areas will get lucky and residual road salt may mean mostly wet streets. But everything else that is untreated may be covered with a coating of ice at least .10" thick...and maybe up to .25" in some areas.

Further west and deeper into the cold air, ice will be a more significant probelm.

Ice Storm Warnings have been issued for far weatern Minnesota and the eastern Dakoats.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...SISSETON...
WEBSTER...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE
1051 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING OVER TO SNOW.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS ON POWER LINES AND TREES IF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.

* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.40 INCH POSSIBLE. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL..1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT...IF NOT DANGEROUS WITH THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH ANY SNOWFALL AND WIND BEHIND IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Bottom line? Expect some icing in the metro and much of central Minnesota overnight into early Saturday A. A full blown ice storm is likely in far western Minnesota.

Round #2: Metro Rain & snow up north

Saturday will be warm enough for just plain rain in the metro.

With temps rising to between 37F and 40F, and as much as .50" rain coming down...there will be water in the streets. Liquid totals may approach 1" in some areas this weekend.

Melting snowfall and clogged icy gutters will mean some giant puddles capable of offering a free car wash as you drive through.

Up north & west, it should remain cold enough for wet sloppy snow from Morris through Brainerd, The Iron Range and along the North Shore ridges. 3" to 6" may accumulate in this band.

Round #3: Wet slushy snow

By Saturday night as the low swings by, enough cold air will be drawn south into the metro to change rain to wet slushy snowflakes.

Most models are indicating about .20" moisture after the changeover...which may have a hard time accumulating more than a coating of metro slush by Sunday morning, with heavier snows south/east of the Twin Cities.

The exception is the NAM...which is going hog wild and brining a band of 3" top 5" into the SE half of the metro.

The Twin Cities NWS Friday PM forecast discussion comments on the potential for a narrow heavier snow band (possibly 3" to 6") to set up just SE...or very close to the metro Saturday night into Sunday AM.

THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODELS GENERATING ANOTHER POST-FRONTAL BAND OF MDT- HVY SNOW FROM SC MN NEWD INTO WC WI. THE EC IS THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE THIS AT ALL AND SEEMS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THIS NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS DISPLACED DOZENS OF MILES IN EITHER DIRECTION. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FINAL BAND...AND THAT UPSTREAM OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF...DECIDED TO ALSO FORGO A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

Stay tuned..but right now I am leaning toward the northern/southern solution which would keep the heavier band of snows north of the metro Saturday...and south of the metro (Mankato, Red Wing, Owatonna, Winona) Saturday night into Sunday.

Craig Edwards will be dogging any changes this weekend, but the bottom line is... it's going to be wet!

PH

Duluth "iced in"; Spring pattern in sight; 50F in 2 weeks?

Posted at 5:13 PM on March 6, 2013 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2013

Land Ho?

Ahoy there Mateys!

Could our long voyage in winter seas be coming to an end soon?

I may have just sighted the Land of Spring on the horizon.

The latest GFS runs suggest a significant pattern shift that could begin to feed milder air into Minnesota starting late next week. It won't be 80F on St. Patty's Day this year, but it should feel a whole lot milder by then.

The GFS is cranking out 52F for MSP 2 weeks from today.

I'd like to see a couple more days worth of runs, but the GFS model seems to have locked onto a trend that bears watching.

In this version of Updraft we talk about our stronger March sun, and how it will inevitably lead to a pattern change that may already be showing up on the weather maps.

39.6 degrees above the horizon - sun angle at noon today over MSP

3.5 times more incoming solar radiation vs. late December

Lake Superior mostly open water, but Ice cover near Duluth

Check out today's webcam image from the Lake Superior Maritime Visitor Center.

Image: LSMMA web cam

Ice now covers most of the bay near Duluth, and the shipping canal is filled with ice cover. Meanwhile today's visible satellite image shows most of Lake Superior is still open water.

Image: College of DuPage

The open lake is a far cry from 4 years ago this week, when thick ice covered most of Lake Superior.

Image: NOAA

Here's the write up from the Marquette, MI NWS from March 3, 2009.

Due to the recent cold spell and below normal temperatures for much of the winter of 2008-2009, ice covers nearly all of Lake Superior. Only small areas of open water remain. This image was taken on Tuesday, March 3rd. If arctic air does not return in the next couple of weeks, it is likely that this will be the day of maximum ice cover on Lake Superior for this winter as warmer weather and periods of stronger winds through the end of this week will cause open water areas to expand.

One of the surprising things about Lake Superior ice cover is that it usually peaks in early March, as opposed to the coldest days of winter in January. It takes a long time to freeze up the big lake.

Forecast: Increasingly sunny

Our days are slowly getting brighter.

That's an especially good thing in March, when our higher sun angle really starts to kick in. The sun is 39.6 degrees above the horizon at noon today. In just 2 weeks, it hits 45 degrees...and climbs to the peak of 68.5 degrees by the summer solstice on June 20th.

The sun is as high in the sky at noon today as it is on October 5th. We're now getting 3.5 times more incoming solar energy as we saw in December, and soon our atmosphere begins to respond for the warmer.

Spring Sighting: Pattern change ahead

It's early and I want to see another 1-2 days of model runs to confirm, but the latest model trends strongly suggest a turn for the milder starting next week.

According to the GFS model, we could be basking in 50+ degree temps 2 weeks from today.

A milder Pacific air flow and more "amplified ridging" appear to be ahead by late next week. That should turn our winds into the south...and bring milder air and probably some more moisture north....as rain.

We should hit the low 40s as soon as Friday & Saturday of this week. The bigger push of mild air moves in late next week into the following weekend, when temps may "soar" into the upper 40s.

Two weeks from today the GFS is cranking out 52F? It's early, and that may be optimistic with this much snow cover...but there are a couple of rain systems in the cards that could help accelerate our snow melt in the next 2 weeks. Nothing wipes out spring snow cover faster than a good soaking rain.

Saturday Slop Fest?

The first system may bring over .50" rainfall Saturday. The system could begin as a wintery mix late Friday night into Saturday AM, but models are trending milder with this system...suggesting more rain than snow.

Image: Iowa State University

Arctic Oscillation: Trending Positive?

One of the keys we look for monger range pattern changes 2-3 weeks out is the trending phase of the Arctic Oscillation. (AO)

When the AO is in the "negative" phase...we get cold and snowy in Minnesota. When the AO goes "positive" we tend to warm up.

As you can see below, the latest trends suggest a shift to a more positive AO phase in about 1-2 weeks. That supports the notion of a warm up.

I don't think we'll launch into the "May-like" March we saw last year, but it looks like the Spring of 2013 may finally be ready to arrive.

Stay tuned.

PH