Updraft Category Archive: Spring 2012

Changes blowing in the wind

Posted at 3:25 PM on March 26, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Freezing rain, Frost, Spring 2012, Warm fronts

A strengthening low pressure system in southwest North Dakato is ushering in milder temperatures through Nebraska into South Dakota. The leading surge of warmer air, depicted as a warm front, ignited showers and thundershowers in southwest Minnesota. Thundershowers are expected early this evening in eastern Minnesota.

Snapshot of radar at 330PM.

The regional short term model from the Chanhassen NWS Office presents this simulation of radar reflectivity at 7PM.

Winds have been gusting as high as 45 mph in western Minnesota (Worthington) this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect overnight and into Tuesday for southern and central Minnesota. Winds are not expected to ease off until late Tuesday.

Overnight, the rain advancing north will meet up with colder and drier air at the surface. This will result in freezing rain in far northern and northeast Minnesota. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been posted for a small corner of the Arrowhead.

Milder air will be positioned over southern Minnesota on Tuesday ahead of the advancing low pressure system. Temperatures are likely to soar well above normal once again.

The Twin Cities should top out near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon. But the strong winds will detract from enjoying an outdoor lunch,

If you enjoy tracking the records from the unseasonably warm spell the last couple of weeks, the Chanhassen NWS Office has updated the details of the record warmth and dew points.

Our friends at the State Climate Office shared this nugget of information with regard to the outlook for frost in the months of April and May based on their study of historically warm temperatures in March. Using the past as our window to the future, it is apparent that a warm March offers us no obvious indication about when the final spring frost will occur. 139 years of Twin Cities temperature data were reviewed. The final spring frost can occur as late as mid May.

The GFS model that extends out two weeks paints a picture of more changes in the wind in the first week or so of April. Perhaps a reversal of the warm weather that we've enjoyed? We'll have to wait and see.
CE

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Free Heat: On track for warmest March; MSP hit 80...before Vegas

Posted at 4:41 PM on March 21, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Spring 2012

On track for the warmest March on record

+15.5 degrees average temps at MSP Airport so far this month

45% savings on your heating bill compared to last March

21% savings this winter overall compared to last winter

80 degrees the Twin Cities hit 80 before Vegas this year (1st time on record)

+.67 degrees February global temps vs. 20th century average

27 years ago - last month cooler than the 20th century average globally

Showers return Thursday!

70 degrees returns as soon as Friday PM & this weekend?

Sunnier drier & milder weekend ahead

On pace for the warmest March on record:

I have to pinch myself looking at the "climate data" from MSP Airport and other Minnesota locations this month.

The Twin Cities is running a full 15.5 degrees vs. average so far this March. With the average monthly temp so far at 45.8 degrees, that puts us in pace for the warmest March on record.

Source: MN Climate Working Group

It's the same story in Duluth, International Falls and all over Minnesota this month.

Here are some (incredible) temps vs. average so far in March:

Duluth +13.8 degrees
International Falls +15.6 degrees
Fargo +13.0 degrees
St. Cloud +13.6 degrees
Sioux Falls +16.2 degrees
Rochester +16.7 degrees

Temperature levels this month are average for mid April. It's like we literally skipped a month...or two this March. Unreal.

Free Heat: Why we're saving big bucks in March

When I was a young buck cutting my teeth in operational forecast at Chicago's "Weather Command" we used to issue daily load forecasts for natural gas companies based on something called "Heating Degree Days." (HDD)

HDD are calculated based on the average daily temp subtracted from 65 degrees.
(65 degrees is about the average heat setting for most homes)

If you look at HDD for March, the Twin Cities has logged 393 HDD this month. Last March, we logged 714 by this point in March.

So you're saving about 45% on your home heating bill this March compared to last March!

For the winter overall we're saving about 21% vs. last year!

Since the average home costs about $200 or more per month to heat, we can be thankful for a few hundred extra bucks in our pockets this winter!

Weird and weirder: MSP hits 80 before Vegas this year for the 1st time

This one is really weird, and unprecedented.

This Twin Cities hit 80 degrees this year on May 17th. That's the first time on record we've seen 80 before Vegas. Chicago hit 80 before Vegas this year too!

Check out the post from the Las Vegas NWS.

Source: Las Vegas NWS

Warm February globally:

NOAA says February was another warm month globally. The last colder than average month was 27 years ago...February 1985!

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Thursday showers:

A stubborn "cut-off" low has been spinning over Oklahoma this week.

Source: Norman, OK NWS

It's also responsible for our bouts of showers in Minnesota, and it looks like one more wave of showers Thursday before the system begins to pull out Friday.

Source: wxcaster.com

Source: ISU

This system has been a godsend for drought plagued Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas. 3 to 7 inches of rain have soaked the southern plains this week. That's great news, especially for Texas after the worst drought in state history last year!

Source: NOAA

Back to the 70s: Warmth returns

As the low pulls east on Friday, Minnesota will see a gradual clearing and warming trend.

Look for increasingly sunnier days Friday through Sunday. Temps should recover and push back into the 70s again this weekend!

Source: ISU

Can you say daffodils?

Enjoy!

PH

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Snowy pattern ahead? March/April critical for 2012 drought prospects

Posted at 6:12 PM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, La Nina, Spring 2012, Winter 2011-12

Week of February 20th GFS hinting at possible snow systems for Minnesota

1.51" GFS liquid output for MSP week of Feb 20th

14.9" season snowfall so far at MSP

16.5" average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season at MSP

96.2% of Minnesota now in "moderate" to "severe" drought!

March snowfall potential critical for easing "hydrologic" drought

April rainfall potential critical for easing "agricultural" drought

Snowy pattern change ahead?

It's too early to be definitive on this, but there are some encouraging signs for Minnesotans who want snow. Our desert dry winter doldrums may be about the end.

The upper air pattern is showing signs of becoming more "chaotic" in the next two weeks. Translation? We may finally get some snow storms passing in or near Minnesota.

Much of the USA has been mired in a persistent west-northwest upper air flow pattern this winter. This has brought mild air, and also little moisture.

The GFS model is advertising a more west-southwest flow starting the week of February 20th. This could steer a series of Pacific storms into the Midwest, and some of them may actually dip into the southern Plains and gulp down some significant moisture before dumping it as snowfall on Minnesota.

GFS hints at a possible "Panhandle Hook" snow storm around February 21st?

While it's still way too early to credibly support these numbers, The 12Z GFS cranked out 1.5" of "liquid" precip the week of February 20th from 2 different storm systems. If that verified and fell as all snow, it could add up to 10" to 15"+ somewhere in Minnesota that week.

We'll see. Trying to credibly nail storm systems that far in advance is futile. But the take away is this; The overall upper air pattern is changing and there could be a growing chance of snowfall the week of February 20th.

Stay tuned!

2012: Year of the Texas-sized "mega-drought" in Minnesota?

As we look ahead toward spring, Minnesota's growing drought looms as the biggest weather story and concern of 2012.

A full 96.2% of Minnesota is classified in "moderate" or "severe" drought in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.

The water tap shut off late last summer in Minnesota, and last fall was the driest on record for many locations. Soils heading into the freeze were powder dry, and will remain that way into the spring thaw.

Weather patterns the rest of this winter into this spring will be critical in determining if this will become one of the worst droughts in Minnesota history, or a significant drought that is eased by above average spring precipitation.

Here are the variable at play the next 3 months.

Late February & March:

The second half of February and the month of March may determine how critical Minnesota's "hydrologic" drought is going into the summer of 2012.

We're living through the 2nd lowest snowfall season to date for much of southern Minnesota. Snowfall at MSP Airport is only 14.9" so far, that's a good month in most years and a good storm last year!

Northern Minnesota has seen better snowfall totals, but most areas are still way below average for the season.

The average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season is 16.5" in the metro and southern Minnesota. We'll need average to much above average snowfall between now and April to provide enough snow melt runoff to feed Minnesota's rivers & lakes, which are at very low levels.

This runoff is critical for easing the "hydrologic" component of drought (rivers, ponds, lakes etc.) but doesn't help much with the "agricultural" or "soils" component since the ground is still frozen and most runoff from snow melt won't soak in.

That's where April weather comes in to play.

April & May:

Average rainfall for April is about 2.3" for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. We will need every drop this spring and significantly more if we are going to stave off a major drought in 2012.

The ground thaws in April. April rainfall soaks into soils, and will recharge them for the growing season. We'll need above average rainfall in April & May to ease drought conditions in Minnesota. Average rainfall won't do this year. A good 4" to 8" of spring rains is what we need to prevent serious drought as we head into the summer of 2012.

Will fading La Nina help?

CPC is out today with news that La Nina is close to being history in the tropical Pacific.

This could possibly be good news for a wetter spring in Minnesota. If "ENSO neutral" conditions evolve we could see a return to more "normal" spring weather patterns in the Midwest.

At this point (in a drought) any pattern change is likely to lead to wetter conditions.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.

Stay tuned!

Arctic air pushes south:

A few flurries may accompany the arctic front surging south into early Friday. Get ready for a bracing day Friday, with wind chills at or below zero in most of Minnesota!

Chicago lake effect snow blitz Friday!

As arctic air hits the still relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, a rare lake effect snow burst will hit the Windy City and northwest Indiana Friday into Saturday.

While lake effect is common in northwest Indianan and Michigan, low level wind trajectories have to be just right to get lake effect snow in Chicago. Friday into early Saturday brings the perfect NNE wind trajectory that flows down the entire fetch of Lake Michigan and right into the Chicago metro area.

At least 6" could fall in Chicago, and this set up look so good that I wouldn't be shocked to see some bands of 6" to 12" in and close to Chicago.

At least somebody in the Midwest is getting snow Friday!

PH

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