Updraft Category Archive: Space weather

"Sun Storm" triggers giant 79,000 mile solar flare eruption

Posted at 8:33 AM on April 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Space weather

Here's something we don't see every day.

On Monday a huge eruption on the sun sent a giant 79,000 mile long solar flare blasting into space.

The massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) shot out to the left if you are looking at the sun from earth, which made it highly visible.

Here's the incredible video from You Tube and NASA.

Source: NASA via You Tube

The details from NASA:

"A beautiful prominence eruption producing a coronal mass ejection (CME) shot off the east limb (left side) of the sun on April 16, 2012. Such eruptions are often associated with solar flares, and in this case an M1 class (medium-sized) flare occurred at the same time, peaking at 1:45 PM EDT. The CME was not aimed toward Earth."

Since the blast was not "earthward directed" it likely will not trigger a large auroua display here on earth.

Gizmodo has another angle. The blast was at least "10 earth's" long!

Source: Gizmodo/NASA

The blast is part of Solar Cycle 24, which is expected to peak next year in 2013.

Rain ends today, but returns tomorrow:

A fast moving upper flow is zipping weather systems through Minnesota quickly this week.

This morning's rain totals ranged between .18" to .35" around the metro, with some higher totals up to .73" up near McGregor in northern Minnesota.

Rainfall totals as system pulls out this morning.
Source: Wx Underground

The next system will zip in Thursday, and another shot of rain can be expected.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Believe it or not, we're running about +1.5" vs. average for rainfall so far this April at MSP Airport. We still need a good 5"+ to catch up from last falls drought and to begin to restore lake levels to near average.

Keep the umbrella handy Thursday too.

PH

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Satellite Tracker: UARS last spotted over Minnesota Friday night!

Posted at 1:55 AM on September 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Space Shuttle/ISS, Space weather

From NASA-Update #13

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 11:55:17 PM CDT

"As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry was expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite was passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety was very remote. NASA is working to confirm the re-entry location and time and will provide an update shortly."

From spaceweather.com

"LAST SIGHTINGS OF UARS? Observers in central Texas saw UARS streaking overhead (but not disintegrating) at 8:18 PM CDT on Sept. 23rd. It was spotted again over western Colorado at ~9:46 pm CDT ("Still intact, but tumbling," says observer Scott Sheriff) and again over Minnesota at 9:55 pm CDT. Since then, however, no observers have reported seeing the doomed satellite. NASA's estimated window for re-entry (between 11:45 p.m. Sept. 23 and 12:45 a.m. Sept. 24 EDT) has passed, so UARS might be no more."

Crashed near Calgary?

"A six-tones NASA science satellite plunged through the atmosphere early on Saturday, breaking up and possibly scattering debris in Canada, NASA said."

From NASA:

Update #14
Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:16:50 AM CDT

"NASA's decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The satellite was passing eastward over Canada and Africa as well as vast portions of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans during that period. The precise re-entry time and location are not yet known with certainty."

****

Evening Update:

NASA now says the falling UARS satellite will likely tumble to earth sometime late Friday night into early Saturday morning. The slower descent means the satellite will pass over North America and Europe several times during that time.

Track the UARS orbit here.

UARS orbital track late Friday afternoon.

There is a small chance, but still a chance that some of the debris could come down over the USA. Here's the latest from NASA Friday:

Update #10

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:45:08 AM CDT

"As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite's rate of descent. The satellite's orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours."

***

It's the biggest thing since Skylab, and it's going to put on a show Friday.

It's called UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) and will break up and reenter earth's atmosphere Friday afternoon EDT according to NASA.

UARS

"The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is an orbital observatory whose mission is to study the Earth's atmosphere, particularly the protective ozone layer. It is 35 feet long, 15 feet in diameter, weighs 13,000 pounds, and carries 10 instruments. UARS orbits at an altitude of 375 miles with an orbital inclination of 57 degrees. Designed to operate for three years, six of its ten instruments are still functioning. UARS measures ozone and chemical compounds found in the ozone layer which affect ozone chemistry and processes. UARS also measures winds and temperatures in the stratosphere as well as the energy input from the Sun."

UARS will come down in pieces according to NASA.

45-80km "burn up altitude"

150 pieces burning up

26 pieces "reentering" (crashing to earth!)

500 mile long potential debris field

1 in 3,200 odds that any human will be hit by falling debris

1 in several trillion; odds you'll be hit!

So where will it land?

You can track the UARS orbit here.

UARS Satellite orbital path late Thursday

NASA says the satellite likely won't be orbiting over North America when it breaks up. But where the pieces will land is anybody's guess, and there are many variables.

Here's a great layout of the break up courtesy of the Washington Post:
(Click image to enlarge)

A nice animation here of the potential break up from space.com

As we used to say on Jet Streaming; "Keep ypur weather eye to the sky" Friday!

"Southern Lights" Dazzle:

Speaking of NASA and flying objects, check out this amazing video of the "Aurora Australias" or southern lights as the Space Shuttle flies over the Indian Ocean last Saturday!

Cut-off low hangs tough:

"A cut-off low is a weatherman's woe."

The persistent October-like low pressure system is in no hurry to move on this week.

Minnesota reamins on the back side of a swirling cold pool. Clouds with the system have been hanging tough in eastern Minnesota, while the sun is shining in the west.

GOES 1km visible satellite shows clouds in eastern Minnesota. Yellow lines show surface wind flow.

The low is in no hurry to move east. Cut offs are notorious for sitting and spinning in spite of forecast models best attempts to push them east.

The result is persistence. Look for another cool day Friday, with the trend for more sun as we head into the weekend. The warm up will be slow. Expect highs only in the 60s this weekend.

This will be a classic "football weather" weekend. It will also be a great weekend to get those early fall yard chores done. Where's that "to do" list anyway?

PH

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2012: Could solar "Katrina" take down the grid?

Posted at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Space weather

File this one under low probability high impact events. But if it happens, it could be the solar equivalent of the perfect storm.

Scientists at NASA and elsewhere are increasingly concerned about the potential for a massive solar "mega-storm" that could disrupt power grids in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Solar cycle 24 is headed for a peak sometime in 2011 or 2012, and some forecasters believe there is historical precedent for gigantic coronal mass (CME) ejections that could take down power grids here on earth.

NASA is getting ready.

"Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers."

Another massive solar flare in 1989 provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Quebec generating station in Canada, blacking out most of the province and plunging 6 million people into darkness for 9 hours.

If it happened in the past we know it can happen again in the future. The question this time is, what will happen if such an extreme event strikes today's aging North American power grid?

A modern solar flare recorded Dec. 5, 2006, by the X-ray Imager onboard NOAA's GOES-13 satellite. The flare was so intense, it actually damaged the instrument that took the picture. Researchers believe Carrington's flare was much more energetic than this one.

Not taking any chances.

The so called "Solar Shield" project is designed to issue warnings to electric utilities when massive solar storms are racing earthward.

"Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun. Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the cloud from as many as three points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it will arrive."

While the CME is crossing the sun-Earth divide, a trip that typically takes 24 to 48 hours, the Solar Shield team prepares to calculate ground currents. "We work at Goddard's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)," says Pulkkinen. The CCMC is a place where leading researchers from around the world have gathered their best physics-based computer programs for modeling space weather events. The crucial moment comes about 30 minutes before impact when the cloud sweeps past ACE, a spacecraft stationed 1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Sensors onboard ACE make in situ measurements of the CME's speed, density, and magnetic field. These data are transmitted to Earth and the waiting Solar Shield team.

No one knows for sure if the dreaded "kill shot" could be unleashed in 2012. But the sun will be watched closely for the potential of a rare but devastating solar storm that could drastically change life here on earth for a period of days, weeks or longer.

PH

Solar storm in progress: Northern lights tonight?

Posted at 4:28 PM on August 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Space weather

The sun is springing to life the last few days in what astronomers are calling a "complex solar eruption."

Sunspot 1098 marks an uptick in activity with solar cycle 24. The sun is expected to become much more active as it heads toward a solar peak in the next 2 years.

The first burst of solar energy has hit the earth today. Check out this from spaceweather.com today.

CME IMPACT! The first of possibly two incoming CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field today at approximately 1730 UT (1:30 pm EDT). As a result of the impact, a polar geomagnetic storm is brewing. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall.

Here's a video of the eruption from August 1st.

Keep an eye out for possible northern lights which may be visible as far south as Missouri tonight!

PH

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