Updraft Category Archive: Snow cover

Midwest snow drought: Lowest snow cover in 7 years!

Posted at 8:30 AM on February 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter 2011-12

33.8" of the USA covered with snow today

56.9% covered 1 year ago

28.8% of the Upper Midwest covered with snow today

7 years since this little coverage in the Upper Midwest
(22.9% in 2005)

86.3% last year on this date in the Upper Midwest

0.8" average depth of Midwest snow cover today

14.1" average depth of Midwest snow cover last year on this date!

Flurries in the metro today - light dusting at best

1" to 2" along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota today

2" to 4" in northern Iowa

Light snowy dusting south today:

A few "lucky" towns will get some light snow today in southern Minnesota, and there may even be enough to plow in northern Iowa.

A weak system passing south of Minnesota will bring a few flurries or snow showers to the metro. A snowy dusting is most likely in the south metro today.

1" yo 2" may fall near the Iowa border, with 2" to 4" in northern Iowa.

At least it's something for drought stricken southern Minnesota!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Snow drought: Lowest snow cover in 7 years in the Midwest!

Overall this winter has been a big bust in the snowfall department.

In fact it's the least snowy winter in 7 years as measured by the percentage of snow cover on this date.

Snow cover today in the Upper Midwest

Snow cover last year!

Looking back over the past few years, this is the least snow cover on this date in 7 years in the Upper Midwest.

The numbers from NOHRSC:

% snow cover in the Upper Midwest
(Western Wisconsin, Minnesota, Dakotas & E Montana)

25.4% today

22.9% in 2005

The more telling number may be the average depth of the snow. This year 0.8". Last year 14.1"

Last year 3 to 6"+ of water was locked up in snow pack ready to be released during the spring melt. This year we'll be lucky to get an inch of runoff if things keep up this way.

The good news? Little or no chance of severe flooding this spring.

The bad news? Little runoff for rivers, lakes & ponds.

There are still some signs of at least some snow in Minnesota next week.

Stay tuned!

PH

Grey drizzly Monday; 70% chance of a brown Christmas?

Posted at 7:54 AM on December 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter 2011-12

Near 40 degrees- temps hover in the upper 30s in the metro Monday!

27 degrees - average high in the metro Monday

Patchy drizzle & fog Monday

Mainly wet roads - temps above freezing in most areas

.25" to .50" of RAIN Wednesday?

2" snow cover at MSP Airport Sunday morning

1" snow cover at Chanhassen NWS as of Sunday morning!

0" at Duluth!

70% chance of a "Brown Christmas" for much of southern Minnesota?

1 year ago today the "Domebuster" storm collapsed the Metrodome

London with pine trees:

It looks and feels like London or Seattle with drizzle and fog to start the work week. Shades of grey will color the landscape today.

The good news? Most areas will remain above freezing, so most roads will just be wet instead of icy. Still a few areas east of the metro may see some patchy freezing drizzle early Monday morning.

Wednesday rain:

A stronger weather system will push toward Minnesota Wednesday. Right now it looks warm enough for mostly rain in the metro.

It may be just marginally cold enough for a few inches of wet snow from Brainerd to Duluth.

"La No-no"?

The jet stream pattern on the medium range maps looks totally different from last year's strng La Nina induced snow blitz.

In fact, the "split flow" pattern that is developing in the upper air maps the next two weeks looks remarkably like an El Nino wintertime signature over North America.

The cold Polar Front Jet Stream that dealt Minnesota the snowiest December on record last year has been pushed far north into Canada.

A second, "sub-tropical" branch of the jet stream (STJ) is winding through the southern USA. The STJ is steering potential snow systems south of Minnesota so far this season.

Jonesboro, Arkansas has shoveled 5" of snow so far this season. Duluth? Just 4.3" That's the slowest start to the snow season in Duluth in 49 years!

The details from the Duluth NWS.

2011

Least Snowiest Start to a Snow Season at Duluth in 49 Years

"This snow season has started slowly thus far at Duluth. Average snowfall for the season through December 11th would be 22.0 inches. Duluth has received a paltry 4.3 inches of snow, 17.7 inches below average. This ranks as the 11th least snowiest start to the snow season at Duluth. Snowfall records go back to 1884 in Duluth. The last time we had such a meager amount of snow accumulation to start the season was in 1963. 45.4 inches of snow fell for the remainder of the 1962-1963 snow season, so snow lovers should not give up hope! The following is a list of the least snowiest starts to the snow season at Duluth."

1. 1.0 inch in 1888
2t. 1.1 inches in 1899
2t. 1.1 inches in 1913
2t. 1.1 inches in 1937
5. 1.3 inches in 1930
6t. 1.9 inches in 1907
6t. 1.9 inches in 1915
8. 2.7 inches in 1939
9. 3.0 inches in 1962
10. 3.6 inches in 1908
11. 4.3 inches in 2011

The upper air pattern this December is nothing like last year. Call it "La Nino" or "La No-no" so far for December 2011.

Brown Christmas?

Not trying to play "Debbie Downer" here, but chances for a brown Christmas appear to be growing for much of southern Minnesota.

-Much of central and western Minnesota is snow free

-There is just 1" to 2" of snow cover on the ground in much of the Twin Cities as of late Sunday

-This week's mild temps and rainfall will wash away much of the snow cover in southern Minnesota

-There appears to be little chance for snow between now and Christmas for much of southern Minnesota

-Temperatures seem to be trending milder than average overall, with a couple of mild spells between now and Christmas.

There is a possible snow system heading for southeast Minnesota next Monday, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. Could it curve north into the metro?

Stay tuned!

PH

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Coldest since March; 40s Sunday? Watching rain/snow next week

Posted at 10:13 PM on December 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter, Winter 2011-12

3 degrees - low temp in parts of the metro Friday morning

March 2nd last time we were that cold at MSP Airport (-3 degrees)

15 forecast high temp at MSP Friday

28 forecast high Saturday

38+ forecast highs by Sunday afternoon!

40s possible Sunday in snow free areas west of the metro

Brief Wintery Blast:

Grab the big coat Friday.

The coldest air in 9 months has invaded Minnesota. Temps should hover a few degrees either side of 0 in much of Minnesota early Friday morning, with some solid sub-zero readings up north. Even with bright sun Friday, temps will not recover out of the teens.

A milder Pacific breeze will begin to moderate temps slightly Saturday. Bank thermometers should manage to flash 28 by 3pm Saturday. By Sunday a milder Pacific air mass will work on melting some snow in southern Minnesota. Highs should top out in the upper 30s to near 40 in the metro, with some 40s possible in snow free areas west of the metro.

Sharp snow cutoff visible from space

Speaking of snow free areas, check out Thursday's MODIS Terra's 250 meter resolution visible image. You can clearly see several interesting features. Snow cover is evident along the Minnesota River into the Twin Cities. A sharp cutoff on the western edge of the snowpack runs just west of the metro, with bare ground out west in Hutchinson and Willmar.

You can see why forecasting snowstorms is one of the most difficult forecast meteorologists have to make. You can literally drive from 3" of snow to bare ground in about 5 minutes!

Possible "Panhandle Hook" next week?

I'm keeping an eye on a potential system for next Wednesday & Thursday. The GFS is spinning up a strong upper low in the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region early Wednesday.

The system should gulp down moisture from a wide open Gulf of Mexico and pump it north into Minnesota Wednesday.

They system appears warm enough for rain to start, but rain could change to snow as the low moves by Thursday.

It's way too early to tell how this might pan out, but there is a decent chance of rain and or snow next Wednesday & Thursday.

Stay tuned.

Artcic Report Card: Warmer

NOAA has an interesting video on changes in the Arctic as a result of persistent warming in recent decades.

2011: Year of Extreme Weather

NOAA also has a nice compilation of extreme "billion dollar" weather events in 2011.

"From extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms, a record 12 weather and climate disasters in 2011 each caused $1 billion or more in damages -- and most regrettably, loss of human lives and property."

Good to be back home:

I'm back form a week in Vegas visitng my best friend from college. It was a great week, but it's good to be back home!

There are some interesting things going on around Vegas in weather & water news. More on that tomorrow.

PH

Sunset as early as it gets, but still losing daylight

Posted at 4:10 PM on December 7, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Snow cover, Winter 2011-12

The sun is setting low on the southwest horizon these chilly winter afternoons. In the Twin Cities the earliest sunset of 432PM commenced on December 3rd. On the 17th of December you will barely notice the sunset a minute later at 433PM.

Due to the tilt of the earth on its axis and the elliptical trip around the sun, we continue to lose daylight in the morning hours. Sunrise on this date is 737AM in Minneapolis. The latest sunrise will be 751AM beginning December 30th and continuing until January 6th. The shortest daylight occurs on the solstice(1130PM) on December 21st.

Did you also happen to notice the micro-climate in the photo at the base of the evergreen tree? Sunshine captured by the green pine needles reflects back the heat and allows for melting of the snow.

This absorption of heat is evident in the late winter and spring on a larger scale in the Superior National Forest. Sunshine captured by the trees can efficiently warm the lower atmosphere more than the sun's rays reflecting off the snow covered prairie landscape.

Some locations in Minnesota saw the thermometer climb to near 32 degrees this afternoon. I'm thinking part of this nice rise in temperatures is due to the lack of snow cover in western Minnesota as well as in the upstream source region of cold Canadian air.

A colleague with the National Weather Service was in Winnipeg last week and noted the sparse snow cover when flying over the region. At this time of the season a thick snow cover keeps the air mass icy as it travels the mid latitudes. The magnitude of the cold can be modified if moving over bare soil.

A brisk west to northwest wind on Thursday afternoon, particularly in northern Minnesota, will create some numbing wind chill readings. As the winds diminish on Thursday night look for temperatures to drop steadily to below zero in many locations.

Milder temperatures for the season are expected Sunday and Monday.

Precipitation was slowing air and auto travel on the East Coast. Heavy rain today has drenched the landscape from Washington D.C., through Baltimore to New York City.

A snap shot of the radar from late afternoon in theD.C. area.

I am not spying a significant snow in the upper Midwest on the most recent computer models, but that has been known to change. Perhaps Paul will have been luck stirring up some snow when he returns.
CE

Odds for a "Brown Christmas" increasing?

Posted at 9:03 AM on November 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow cover, White Christmas

72% Historical chances of a white Christmas in the metro

2006 last Christmas with just a trace of snow in the metro

19" snow cover at MSP Airport on December 25th, 2010

.03" GFS model forecast precipitation through December 15th (0Z run)

40 degrees GFS forecast high temp for Metro on December 13th

50% Current Weather Lab odds for a brown Christmas in the metro and southern Minnesota

Brown lawn and dry birdbath at the weather lab today

Where's winter?

Yes it sort of feels like winter today in Minnesota; it just doesn't look like winter. My brown lawn at the weather lab in the west metro is begging for rain or snow.

Our historical or "climatological" odds for a white Christmas (at least 1" of snow on the ground) in the metro are 72%.

The odds for Christmas white approach 100% as you move north from Brainerd and Virginia to Ely, Biwabik and Embarrass.

Chances for a white Christmas drop to about 60% in southwest Minnesota around Pipestone and Luverne.

Here are some other Minnesota cities and the historical probability of a white Christmas:

-Brainerd: 97%
-Duluth Airport: 98%
-Grand Marais: 89%
-Hutchinson: 64%
-Mankato: 68%
-Morehead: 84%
-Ortonville: 70%
-Owatonna: 71%
-Pipestone: 66%
-Redwood Falls: 61%
-Rochester: 78%
-St. Cloud: 74%
-Worthington: 76%

Lake Wilson in southwest Minnesota has the lowest historical probability of a white Christmas of any Minnesota reporting location at 57%.

We've seen less than 1" snow cover on 31 of 111 years in the Twin Cities dating back to 1899.

Bug Island on Lake Minnetonka rests in 5" of snow cover in December 2009.

Christmas 2011: Brown or white?

We're about to close out the driest fall on record in the metro and much of southern Minnesota. The growing drought shows no signs of easing on the medium range forecast maps. Other than a minor dusting of snow Thursday and another chance along about December 10th, the maps look eerily quiet. No big "Domebuster" type storms in sight so far this year. Nothing more than "a flake an acre" between now and mid-December?

The maps can turn on a dime this time of year, but at this point it seems likely that we may get to December 15th without significant snow cover in much of Minnesota.

If that happens our chances for a brown Christmas will increase dramatically.

The last time you probably saw your lawn on Christmas Day in the metro was 2006 when a trace was recorded at MSP Airport. MSP Airport also recorded just a trace of snow in 2002 and 1997.

That translates into a brown Christmas about every 4 or 5 years in the past 14 years. We still may manage 1" of snow between now and Christmas, but historically speaking we're due for another brown Christmas in the metro.

The whitest Christmas ever in the metro was 20" in 1983. Last year was #2 with 19" on the ground at MSP on Christmas Day!

They say when in a drought, don't forecast rain or snow. Looking at the maps, I'd put the odds of a brown Christmas this year in the metro at 50/50 right now. The weather maps may still gin up a storm, and bring us the gift of winter white for Christmas this year.

Personally, I'm hoping for at least a little snow between now and December 25th!

PH

Canada snow drought = Mild MN November?

Posted at 8:15 AM on November 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Snow cover

You have to go a long way north to find snow on the ground these days. I mean a really really long way north.

Check out the latest snow cover map from NOAA. You can see there is virtually no snow cover on the ground in Saskatchewan or Alberta.

In fact you could drive (or fly) about 1,000 miles northwest of the Twin Cities and see nothing but green prairie and forecast. You have to go all the way to Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territories to se continuous snow cover.

Climatologically speaking, there should be snow cover all the way south to the USA-Canadian border by now.

Mild November ahead?

It's a bit of chicken and egg; is the lack of Canadian snow cover contributing to our mild fall, or is there no snow because jet stream patterns this fall are so mild?

Either way, it looks like the trend may continue. Here's what I see looking at the medium range forecast maps through mid November.

-Temps 3 to 6 degrees milder than average overall

-Little or no snowfall through November 14th

CPC Outlooks: Mild, not wild

So far the CPC outlooks for November agree with a continued mild trend.

Old man winter may be lurking, but he's nowhere in sight just yet.

Stay tuned!

PH

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