Updraft Category Archive: Severe weather

Saturday storms clearing; Sunday heat on tap

Posted at 12:17 PM on May 26, 2012 by Hart Van Denburg (0 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

MPR meteorolgist Bill Endersen writes:

Thunderstorms with heavy rain have been zipping across the metro area and much of the southern half of Minnesota this morning. The strongest storms have been tracking south of the metro from Redwood Falls to Mankato to Red Wing. Some of these storms likely contain small hail but significant severe weather is not likely.

Morning rainfall amounts are likely to exceed one inch across the southern metro with lesser amounts to the north. My rain gauge has picked up almost six-tenths of an inch as the rain tapers off.

For the metro area, it looks as though the storms should clear out in time for a mostly pleasant Saturday afternoon. And the Twins-Tigers game is likely to be a go at Target Field.

Some severe storms are possible across southern to central Minnesota later today although the morning weather might put enough of a cap on the atmosphere to impede strong development. If severe storms develop later today the main risk will be of damaging hail.

Soil saturation from the continuing rains might lead to some localized flooding.

Sunday continues to look like a hot, fairly steamy day with growing thunderstorms advancing eastward across Minnesota during the day. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds are possible Sunday, especially in the evening in eastern Minnesota and then into western Wisconsin.

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Wettest May? Weekend severe risk; 97 Sunday? Grays Bay Dam open

Posted at 5:07 PM on May 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Record, Severe weather

8.18" rainfall at MSP Airport so far this May

2nd wettest May on record so far at MSP Airport

Wettest May on record for some metro & Minnesota locations
(More from Mark Seeley below)

Mixed weather bag Memorial Day Weekend - some rain, sun and heat

Hot sticky Sunday 90 degrees & humid (60s dew points)

Severe late Sunday? Severe storm risk late PM & evening into early Monday

Mixed Memorial Day: Rain early, some PM sun?

This "Bud's" for you? (no not the beer) - Dissipating Hurricane "Bud" may inject some moisture into by Minnesota Monday

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"May-soon"

Welcome to the May Monsoon.

Another month, another record in Minnesota. When did "extreme" weather become "normal" weather in Minnesota?

According to my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, this is already the wettest May on record at several Minnesota locations, and we still have a week to go.

It's the 2nd wettest May at MSP Airport with 8.18" so far. Another 2.16" is doable this month, even this weekend. That would make it the wettest May on record at MSP Airport.

Several additional locations arte in the top 5.

Here's an excerpt from Mark's earlier Updraft post.

With the frequency of heavy thunderstorms dominating the Minnesota landscape this month, some observers are reporting one of the wettest Mays in history. Currently on a statewide basis this May ranks among the top ten wettest in history. For some individual climate stations it is already among the top five, including:

Chanhassen 9.22 inches (wettest ever)
Chaska 8.53 inches (4th wettest)
Jordan 9.17 inches (3rd wettest)
MSP Airport 8.18 inches (2nd wettest)
Forest Lake 9.62 inches (wettest ever)
Windom 8.40 inches (2nd wettest)
Pipestone 8.29 inches (4th wettest)
New Ulm 8.16 inches (4th wettest)
Mora 8.56 inches (wettest ever)
Floodwood 7.32 inches (wettest ever)

Tonka up 5": Grays Bay Dam open for 1st time since Labor Day weekend

I've recorded nearly 4" of rain at the Huttner Weather Lab this week on the east end of Lake Minnetonka. It's no surprise that the lake is responding, and the water level is up 5" (.42 feet) since Wednesday according to the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District web site.

The Grays Bay Dam feeds Minnehaha Creek, and the dam has now been opened by MCWD (12CFS) for the first time since it was closed early last September.

Source: Minnehaha Creek Watershed District

Further downstream, Minnehaha Falls is back to life and roaring away these days. 3"+ rainfall pushed level of Minnehaha Creek about 3 feet higher this week, and the Falls look and sound great.

Source: USGS

This is a great weekend to visit Minnehaha Falls. Sea Salt anyone?

Mixed Weather bag: Pick your "sunny" spots this weekend

This will actually be a pretty typical Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota. Some thunder & rain, some sun, and even some heat.

Our active pattern will continue this weekend. Timing summer rain is one of the tougher forecasts we make. The models do a much better job with big, "stratiform" winter rain/snow events than with finicky, "convective" summertime thunderstorms.

That said, here's my best shot at picking your "sunny spots" this weekend.

Friday night: Scattered showers & T-Storms Low 57. Wind E 5-12 mph.

Saturday: Mixed clouds with scattered shower/T-Storm chances. Trending sunnier late PM & evening? High 78. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Choppy lakes.

Saturday Night: Clearing, warmer and more humid. Starting to feel like summer. Low near 66. Balmy south breeze 5-15 mph.

Sunday: Instant July. Best beach & lake day. Mostly sunny hazy, stinking hot & humid. Record hgh near 97! (Record is 95) Wind S 5-15 mph. Growing severe risk late PM.

Sunday Night: Severe storm risk. Heavy rainfall again possible. Low near 65.

Memorial Day: AM showers & T-Storms may linger. Chance for PM & evening sun? High 74. Wind NW 5-15 mph.

Severe weather: Keep the weather radio (and MPR) handy

There is a slight risk for a severe storm Saturday, but all the ingredients may come together late Sunday for severe storms in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

A cold front will cut into a hot, steamy air mass over Minnesota by late Sunday. Severe storms may rapidly erupt along the front as the "cap" breaks Sunday afternoon.

SPC has already placed a risk "bull's eye" over Minnesota for late Sunday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Of the 3 summer holiday weekends in Minnesota; you're "climatologically" most likely to get wet during Memorial Day Weekend. It's no big surprise that we'll see some ran this weekend, and maybe some severe weather.

We're now working into the peak time of year for severe weather in Minnesota. Severe weather frequency climbs rapidly in May, and peaks in June.

Is it any big surprise that we should see a few severe storms on Memorial Day weekend?

This "Bud's" for you!

As if another potent low jetting for Minnesota wasn't enough, how about a little "tropical moisture" with your thunderstorms?

Hurricane Bud reached Cat 3 this week. That's the earliest ever for the eastern Pacific according to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground.

Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall.

Source: NASA MODIS

The remnants of dissipating Hurricane Bud along the Mexican coast may get picked up in the upper flow ahead of our low pressure system, and "injected" into Minnesota by Sunday night and Monday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

The extra infusion of tropical moisture could enhance rainfall in Minnesota. It's relatively rare, but moisture from the tropical Pacific does occasionally get pumped into our storms, and this weekend could be one of those events. Sometimes the models "misunderestimate" the amount of additional moisture being pumped into this systems. If it does, there is a chance that we could see another bout of torrential rains linger into Memorial Day.

MPR (and former WCCO radio) meteorologist Bill Endersen will man the MPR weather lab this weekend and have updates as needed.

Stay tuned, and have a great weekend!

PH

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LIVE: Heavy rain and severe weather updates

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 24, 2012 by Molly Bloom (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

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Flooding rains and severe thunderstorms likely in southern Minnesota

Posted at 1:14 PM on May 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Severe weather, Storms, Thunderstorms

Conditions have come together for bouts of showers and thunderstorms for the next 24 to 36 hours over Minnesota. The most intense storms are likely in the southern half of the state. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for an area of central and southern Minnesota.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...KANDIYOHI...MCLEOD...MEEKER...
RENVILLE...SIBLEY...STEARNS AND WRIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CARVER AND SCOTT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
BLUE EARTH...BROWN...FARIBAULT...FREEBORN...LE SUEUR...
MARTIN...NICOLLET...RICE...STEELE...WASECA AND WATONWAN. IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...REDWOOD. IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...POPE...STEVENS...SWIFT AND YELLOW
MEDICINE.

Heavy rains have already drenched this area.

The NOAA Prediction Center has its eyes on Minnesota and South Dakota for very heavy rainfall totals, exceeding more than three inches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been posted by the Storm Prediction Center until 7 p.m.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

At 1:05 p.m. the National Weather Service received a report of one inch diameter hail 3 miles east southeast of New Ulm.

Track severe storms and flooding rains from the NWS in Chanhassen.

--Craig Edwards

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Severe storms rumbling across southern Minnesota

Posted at 2:14 PM on May 4, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for an area that includes portions of southwest and south central Minnesota. Warnings have already been issued on some of the stronger storms.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MASON CITY IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Follow storm warnings and reports fromthe National Weather Service at this weblink.

Craig Edwards

Morning thunderstorms fade but may reload before day is done

Posted at 4:00 PM on May 3, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

A cluster of thunderstorms coalesced over east central and southeast Minnesota this morning. Many locations around the Twin Cities metro experienced a 30 to 40 minute downpour. A number of cities reported rainfall of around three quarters of an inch with this rush of storms.

A few places east of the Twin Cities had to deal with hail up to an inch in diameter and wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. Hail was not as brutal as last evening's storms in southern Minnesota.

Satellite image from 340pm CDT from NOAA/College of Dupage
This cluster of storms is forecast to strengthen and drift east through the remainder of the afternoon.

Source: NOAA SPC

The Storm Prediction Center lays out this probability of large hail tonight. Incoming and departing flights from Chicago and Milwaukee may experience delays.

Another weak trigger in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaching the upper Midwest on Friday could initiate showers and thunderstorms in Minnesota as it races east. Note the small wind max forecast at 1 p.m. in western Minnesota.

Cooler temperatures will begin to set in for the weekend. The chances for thunderstorms hold rather high. Strong thunderstorms look to be most likely later on Saturday night.

Saturday's forecast high temperatures. Source; National Weather Service

Temperatures at 4 p.m. CDT ranged from 81 at Owatonna to a cool 46 in Duluth Harbor. As we will be saying for the next several months, cooler near the lake.

--Craig Edwards

Hail pummels parts of southern and central Minnesota

Posted at 6:38 AM on May 3, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Radar, Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

The corridor from near New Ulm to Zumbrota was clobbered with hail up to two and a half inches in diameter late Wednesday afternoon. Ouch! And Tuesday's storms brought large hail on a swath from Sauk Centre to near Princeton on the order of two inches in diameter.

Storm reports from NWS Chanhassen. Check out previous versions.

Wednesday's storm reports. Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

In a separate overnight storm, Milan, in Chippewa County, reported two inch diameter hail.

More storms at daybreak were producing large hail southeast of Fergus Falls. These storms were racing quickly east toward Brainerd and St. Cloud

Raindrops violently tossed in the updrafts of thunderstorms can accumulate ice layers in the cold air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. Tops of the thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon were above 40,000 feet in southern Minnesota. Commercial aircraft top out at that level for their cruising altitude.

This graphic from Weatherunderground depicts the accumulated precipitation beginning May 2nd and ending at 630 a.m. CDT. Note the track of severe storms in the brighter yellow and orange. These storms produced heavy rainfall as well as large hail. Two and a half inches of rain fell in a short time yesterday afternoon eight miles northwest of New Ulm. Nearly two inches of rain was measured at Zumbrota.

Source:Weatherunderground.com

Lighter rainfall occurred in the Minnesota Arrowhead region in the past 24 hours.

The Minnesota State Climate Office released the hydrological update yesterday. You can read the entire report here.

Recent moisture has helped put a dent in the drought, but there are still areas that need moisture to recover from the seven-month deficit. From the report:

April 2012 precipitation totals were above normal in portions of west central, north central, and northeast Minnesota. Elsewhere, monthly precipitation totals were near the historical average. It was only the second month since July 2011 where monthly precipitation totals were near to above average.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are in the weather picture through the weekend. Here's the potential rainfall for the next three days.

Source: NOAA NCEP

--Craig Edwards

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More intense storms may stay south of Minn. tonight

Posted at 3:46 PM on May 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Mother Nature has yet to show all her cards for the potential development of strong thunderstorms this evening.

Yesterday's severe storms were a bit easier to predict. This afternoon, signs indicate that storms might be more likely to the south of Minnesota where the atmosphere is really juiced up. Dew points are well into the 60s in Iowa.

Source: NOAA SPC

This graphic from the Storm Prediction Center from 3 p.m. CDT shows temperatures in the red lines and dew points in the green colors. Surface wind field is also included. The dew point at Mason City was 65 degrees at mid afternoon.

NOAA SPC is focusing the concern for severe weather along the boundary of 60 degree dew points and deeper moisture field to our south.

This shows the Storm Prediction Center's latest thoughts on probabilities of damaging wind storms tonight.

The visible satellite image from 3:45 p.m. CDT indicates were cloud layer boundaries are located. We are awaiting a trigger to advance at the mid levels of the atmosphere to ignite storms this evening. That makes it a little tough to rule out severe weather in the Twin Cities. The more intense storms should straddle the Iowa/Minnesota border.

Predicting the specific location and timing remains a work in progress. You'll want to stay tuned.

At 4 p.m. CDT the mercury was one degree shy of 80 degrees at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. If we reach 80 it will equal the high for this year recorded on March 17. No 80 degree reading was registered in April in Minneapolis/St. Paul. The normal high for the date is 65 degrees. It was 81 degrees at the Flying Cloud airport at 4 p.m. CDT.

Storm reports from Tuesday

Posted at 6:41 AM on May 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms blossomed over central and southwest Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Large hail hammered the area from Albany to Sauk Centre, including St. Cloud and St. Joseph. Spotters reported hail up to an inch and three quarters in diameter, driven by winds exceeding 50 mph at times.

Two and half inches of rain fell at Sauk Rapids in Benton County.

Preliminary storm reports compiled by the Storm Prediction Center for May 1.

Regional reports of severe weather available here. Hail pounded parts of southwest Minnesota as well.

Doppler radar rainfall estimates for the past 24 hours indicate where the most severe storms struck yesterday aftenoon and evening. Notice that portions of southern Minnesota tallied less than a quarter inch of rain. Around three quarters to one inch of precipitation fell in the Twin Cities metro area.

The water vapor satellite imagery from this morning shows the layered moisture has swept east and south of Minnesota. It will take a few hours for the atmosphere to regroup. We'll look for a boundary to likely set up along the Iowa/Minnesota border to be the focus for storm development this afternoon.

The lighter gray shade is drier air. Brighter white is associated with dense clouds and precipitation.
Source: NOAA

With sunshine today temperatures should response nicely, climbing well into the 70s.

Source: NOAA/NWS

Here's the severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice the higher risk of nasty storms in Iowa.

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes possible

Posted at 4:18 PM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

The sunshine finally arrived in eastern MInnesota late this afternoon. Meanwhile a full day of sunshine in southwest Minnesota helped destablize the air. Thunderstorms have formed to the west of the Twin Cities and a Tornado Watch is in effect for a large part of central and southwest Minnesota until 10 p.m.

345pm CDT visibile satellite
Source: NOAA College of Dupage

Be alert for rapidly changing conditions. Severe storms are expected as we head into the late afternoon and evening.

Here's a look at the HRRR output of simulated radar around 8 p.m. CDT. This is a forecast of radar reflectivity based on this morning's computer model and is considered experimental data.

Source: NOAA

A tornado watch is in effect just west of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned for any severe weather warnings.

Counties in the Tornado Watch
Source: NOAA SPC

--Craig Edwards

Thunderstorms likely to erupt soon

Posted at 1:46 PM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

We've seen persistent cloud cover over eastern Minnesota but southwest Minnesota has experienced the warming rays of sunshine for most of the day. This region of the state should be the launching zone for showers and thunderstorms in the next couple of hours.

Temperatures have reached 80 degrees from Worthington to Granite Falls. Dew points were climbing as well. South winds were gusting up to 30 mph. The air mass is becoming increasingly unstable. Thunderstorms should develop as the afternoon progresses.

Visible satellite 130pm CDT
Source: NOAA and College of Dupage

There remains the potential for severe storms with damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall can be expected.

Source: NOAA SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has a large swath of the state with the risk of a tornado. While the probability may appear small, we all need to keep aware of the intensity of storms later this afternoon and into early tonight.

If your plans call for outdoor activities into the evening, you should be alert for approaching storms. Watch for darkening skies and flashes of lightning. Athletic fields should be cleared if thunder is heard within 30 seconds of the lightning flash. Don't wait for the heavy rain to arrive.

--Craig Edwards

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May begins with severe weather threat

Posted at 6:37 AM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Turning the calendar to May seems to coincide with the forecast of warmer temperatures, rising dew points and the threat for strong thunderstorms in Minnesota and the upper Midwest.

An opening act of showers and thunderstorms developed over central Minnesota overnight signaling the growing potential for a juiced up atmosphere. As low level moisture converges over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Source: NOAA SPC

We expect some sunshine and heating to destabilize the atmosphere today. Temperatures could top 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. Southerly winds will gust to over 25 mph at times.

Visible satellite image shortly after daybreak.
Source:NOAA through College of Dupage

Experimental RUC forecast of surface temperatures and winds at 6PM CDT.
Source; NOAA/NWS

The trend has shown the main event is most likely to occur later this afternoon and tonight. Stay attentive to changing weather and the posting of severe weather watches and warnings.

Remember a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when there is the high potential for hail one inch or greater in diameter and damaging winds on the order of 60 mph or greater. When a Tornado Watch is posted you need to remain particularly attentive to warnings. Have multiple sources for weather information, including a NOAA Weather Radio.

This experimental thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the probability of thunderstorms developing between 3pm CDT and 7pm CDT.

In the Twin Cities, we closed out April with temperatures averaging two and half degrees above normal. Precipitation at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International airport totaled 3.04 inches, more than a third of an inch above normal.

--Craig Edwards

Severe Weather Awareness, part two

Posted at 6:27 AM on April 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather

On Saturday afternoon I was monitoring the weather radar and the severe storm advancing toward St. Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals were playing the Brewers at Busch Stadium. An efficiently played ball game ended prior to the storm reaching the jammed ball park.

The strong storm revealed sufficient intensity to trigger a severe thunderstorm warning for the local area with hail reported greater than two and a half inches in diameter. The radar algorithm for the potential hail size was shown as greater than four inches on one vertical volume scan.

As the storm approached downtown St. Louis there were indications on Doppler radar of very strong winds and a tornado warning was eventually issued. Ultimately this became a killer storm with winds estimated near 70 mph. A hospitality tent was blown down and a serious weather calamity occurred. Here's a statement included in a story I spotted on the the internet. Deputy Fire Chief John Altmann cautioned that patrons need to understand a tent is not a safe place to be in bad weather."Tents are temporary structures."

Severe weather reports to SPC on Saturday, April 28th.

We are approaching peak severe weather season. At the same time we are moving into the warmer days of spring and outdoor activities, including graduation events and celebrations. Folks need to be aware of potential severe weather and have some plan in place for seeking sufficient shelter.

I remember attending a graduation party when I was 18 years old. The sirens were going off and I assisted in moving a dozen or so people into a crawl space. A brave few watched the sky.

The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk (35%) of severe weather in our neck of the woods on Tuesday.

Source: NOAA SPC

For more information on the background of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather risk probabilities you can review at this link from SPC.

A trend toward milder, warmer temperatures begins today and lasts through most of the week.

Tuesday's mid afternoon temperatures.
Source: Twisterdata.com

A warm front, convergence zone, will be positioned over Minnesota on Wednesday. This will result in the continued potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to May, here's the Climate Prediction Centers outlook issued earlier this month.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

This outlook could be refreshed, updated today.

As we close out April, 2012 we will find the statistics documenting another month of above normal temperatures. About two and half degrees above normal in the Twin Cities.

CE

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Are our stadiums prepared for severe weather? Are you?

Posted at 5:41 PM on April 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

It's a beautiful summer evening and you're filing into Target Field to watch the Twins. Or, you're rocking to Bono and U2...and dancing in the rain as lightning flashes all around you on a summer night at TCF Bank Stadium.

Thousands of fans await U2 as the storm approaches TCF Bank Stadium last July.
Photo Credit: Paul Huttner-MPR News

Maybe you're in the seats watching the St. Paul Saints at Midway Stadium. Or perhaps you're tailgating before a Vikings game on a humid early September Sunday, or taking in the Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium on a warm September Saturday.

What do you do if a tornado approaches? Where do you go as a damaging line of thunderstorms with an 80 mph gust front is racing toward you? How close does the lightning have to get before you react? When does the stadium "sound the alarm?"

Your advance planning and actions in the minutes and seconds before the storm hits may determine if your survive, are seriously injured, or safe.

The answers to the best plan are complicated, and may change depending on exactly where you are, and what stadium personnel do in the minutes and seconds before life threatening severe weather strikes.

There may be no "one size fits all" answer.

The best thing you can do? Hopefully you know severe weather or tornadoes are a possibility before you head outdoors into a public arena.

As you enter the stadium, park, baseball field etc, think about where you would go if a tornado hit. Where is the closest safe shelter? Are there any obstacles in the way? Does it make sense to react early, and get to a relatively safe place and wait to see if the storms actually hits?

Ideally, severe weather preparedness is in the hands of the individual. Your own "situational awareness" can save your life and the lives of those around you.

My biggest fear? An EF3 tornado bearing down on Target Field or TCF Bank Stadium packed with 40,000 fans, and nobody sounds the alarm to get to safe shelter until it's too late because "the game must go on."

Hopefully, the stadium or location has an effective plan for getting you and other fans to safe shelter. But as you'll see in the piece from the Des Moines Register below, complications can arise in any severe weather situation.

Here's an excerpt:

Weather reports showed strong storms and the possibility of tornadoes headed toward Des Moines last Saturday night, and Bob Swanson, head of security at the Iowa Events Center, wanted his staff prepared.

The Iowa Barnstormers arena football team was playing that night. He called a morning meeting to make sure everyone was up to speed on evacuation procedures, nearby tornado shelters and crowd management if things got rough.

That night, though, as with many emergencies, circumstances threw a curveball: The fire alarm went off, and an automated public address message told fans to head for the exits -- just as the teeth of a thunderstorm and damaging high winds bore down on the capital city.

Next time you head out to an outdoor event of any kind, please have an idea if severe weather is a threat before you go. Then take a minute to think about where you will go if the worst happens. Anything else is gravy.

PH

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Sirens failed, NOAA weather radio saved lives in Woodward tornado

Posted at 8:45 AM on April 17, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

"We'd been on the lookout for it for three days," he said. "... We were as ready as we could have been." - Larry Hill, Thurman, IA, in Time.

"We knew well ahead of time that this was going to be ugly. People listened" to the warnings." - Sedgwick County, KS Commissioner Tim Norton, also in Time.

"An outdoor warning system should never be the only way or even the primary way to receive a warning," said Rick Smith, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "Our message that we preach is you have to have several ways to receive a warning."

"It was so fast," she said. "I hadn't been in there anytime at all until it was like a bomb went off. I guess it was the roof blowing off." - 87 year old Wilma Nelson in The New York Times describing how she took shelter in her closet after her NOAA weather radio alerted her just after midnight in Woodward, OK last weekend.

In the photo above, Galen Zumbach of Creston, Iowa begins the cleanup process with the help of neighbors and friends after his house was hit by a tornado April 15, 2012 in Creston, Iowa. The storm was part of a massive system that affected areas from Northern Nebraska and Iowa south through Oklahoma and Kansas. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)

A "well warned" event:

Did we just witness a major meteorological success story last weekend?

Multiple reports indicate that people in the path of last weekends devastating tornado outbreak had plenty of warning in most cases. Some were aware of the likelihood of tornadoes as much as 3 days in advance.

It is quite possible that the early warnings and "enhanced wording" saved lives last weekend.

Though the sirens failed in Woodward, OK due to lighting striking a communications tower, some residents got the warnings from other sources. 87 year old Wilma Nelson was one of those. She was awakened by the sound of her NOAA Weather radio blaring just after midnight in Woodward.

The New York Times takes it from there.

"Early Sunday morning, shortly after midnight, Mrs. Nelson, now 87, was home alone again, on the city's west side, in the house on Robin Drive, when an alert came over her weather radio warning of a tornado spotted a few miles outside town.

"It was so fast," she said. "I hadn't been in there anytime at all until it was like a bomb went off. I guess it was the roof blowing off."

Twin tornadoes developing in Kansas. Source: AP

A severe weather success story?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and media meteorologists started sounding alarm bells as much as 3-7 days in advance of last weekend's tornado outbreak.

Check out the evolution of the successfully placed SPC severe risk areas from last week.

Source: NOAA/SPC & KOCO weather blog

As the AP story we posted yesterday makes clear, people heeded the dire warnings.

It appears that this time, the public listened, and acted.

"WOODWARD, Okla. - When a tornado shrouded in darkness and wrapped in rain dropped quickly from the sky above this northwest Oklahoma town, many residents relied on television weathermen to warn them of impending devastation. Others learned of the monster twister from neighbors or calls from frantic relatives.

"We knew well ahead of time that this was going to be ugly. People listened" to the warnings, Sedgwick County Commissioner Tim Norton said."

In the photo above, damage from an apparent tornado is seen April 14, 2012 in Thurman, Iowa. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)

It looks like we may have just witnessed a major severe weather "success story" last weekend.

PH

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Near Miss: Minnesota narrowly dodges severe weather bullet

Posted at 10:29 PM on April 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

126 (preliminary) tornado reports in the plains Saturday according to NOAA's SPC

5 killed in Woodward, Oklahoma tornado Saturday

10 tornado reports Sunday

3 tornado reports in Minnesota Sunday

No reports of damage or injuries in Minnesota

"High end, life-threatening event" NOAA's alarming wording before Saturday's outbreak

Did "enhanced wording" save lives last weekend?

Lucky Break:

Skies turned ugly and stormy in Minnesota Sunday, but it could have been much worse.

A lucky combination of incomplete clearing (we didn't get warm enough) and April sun power instead of May or June limited storms in Minnesota just enough to keep them mostly just below severe limits in Minnesota.

Still, 3 tornadoes did touch down, and funnel clouds, gusty winds and hail and (welcome) heavy rain pelted the landscape.

Source: NOAA/SPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1021 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 N MONTEVIDEO 45.10N 95.72W
04/15/2012 E2.00 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

0526 PM TORNADO 2 SW BROWNTON 44.71N 94.38W
04/15/2012 MCLEOD MN STORM CHASER

0532 PM TORNADO 2 NE BISCAY 44.85N 94.25W
04/15/2012 MCLEOD MN AMATEUR RADIO

CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND.

0536 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE NEW AUBURN 44.69N 94.20W
04/15/2012 SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0536 PM HAIL SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM HAIL GLENCOE 44.77N 94.15W
04/15/2012 M1.00 INCH MCLEOD MN EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CITY

0633 PM HAIL MONTROSE 45.07N 93.91W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0654 PM HAIL NEW HOPE 45.04N 93.39W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL

"Enhanced Wording" saved lives?

Saturday's serious tornado outbreak put up some astounding numbers.

NOAA/SPC

There are some reports that uber serious hyped up wording may have lead more people to pay attention this weekend, and potentially saved some lives.

There was a lot of damage with storms in Oklahoma and Kansas, but relatively few deaths and injurious considering the number and location of tornadoes.

The story from the New York Times

"WOODWARD, Okla. -- The tornadoes were unrelenting -- more than 100 in 24 hours over a stretch of the Plains states. They tossed vehicles and ripped through homes. They drove families to their basements and whipped debris across small towns throughout the Midwest. In some areas, baseball-size hail rained from the sky.

The system will be tested for another six months before National Weather Service officials decide whether to continue or expand it."

"Midnight Tornado" in Woodward:

The deadly Woodward, OK tornado struck around midnight! That's evidence of just how strong this weather system was. Even in tornado alley, it's rare to get strong (in this case EF3) tornadoes at night.

Source: Norman, OK NWS

Get used to the elevated wording on severe weather this year. If this is how it is in mid-April it's going to be a long, potentially severe summer.

Intense "Hailers":

Check out this clip from You Tube shwowing intense hail Saturday in Nebraska.

Source: You Tube

Winter March pattern returns in April:

Ugh!

We're not done with cold wind and snow in Minnesota just yet! Get out the shovels up north.

Duluth NWS

PH

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Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, snow Monday?

Posted at 12:08 PM on April 15, 2012 by MPR News Staff
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

By Bill Endersen

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their usual midday updated severe weather outlook for the remainder of the day. The Twin Cities metro area continues to be in a moderate risk area for severe weather along with south central and southeastern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Wisconsin and Iowa.

The most likely time period for thunderstorms in and near the metro area is between approximately 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. today. Some storms are likely to be strong and some could become severe. Any thunderstorms that develop during the late afternoon should track rapidly to the northeast into Wisconsin. This will be a short duration event that will end around the metro area during the early evening.

Farther north rain over northern Minnesota will give way to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and then snow tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeastern Minnesota for late tonight and tomorrow morning as snowfalls of two to five inches will be accompanied by strong winds, blowing and drifting. Near white-out conditions are possible for parts of the Iron Range by late tonight.

By tomorrow morning rain could become mixed with snow even in the metro area.

Sunday Severe: Metro upgraded to "moderate risk"; 120 Tornadoes Saturday

Posted at 1:32 AM on April 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

"Moderate Risk" SPC upgrades MSP area to moderate risk Sunday

Twin Cities, Owatonna, Waseca, Northfield, Winona, Albert Lea, Rochester, all under a moderate risk Sunday according to SPC

15% chance of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of any spot in the moderate risk area Sunday according to SPC

45% to 50% chance of damaging winds and/or 1"+ diameter hail in the risk area Sunday

120 tornadoes reported Saturday by SPC (From OK to KS, NE & IA)

Source: NOAA/SPC

Soaking rains in MN Sunday morning - some 1"+ totals

Severe Sunday Ahead:

The powerful low pressure system that spawned 120 tornadoes Saturday (according to SPC) is nudging northeast into Minnesota Sunday.

While it looks lik the Twin Cities is on the northern edge of the most severe part of the system, SPC has now upgraded all of southeast Minnesota from the Twin Cities south & east to a "moderate risk" for severe weather and possible tornadoes Sunday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Be alert for possible watches and warnings Sunday in the area. Here are some links to track the changing weather situation Sunday.

-Storm Prediction Center
-Twin Cities NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

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Weekend Severe Threat: Tornadoes possible in southern MN

Posted at 3:42 PM on April 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

"High Risk" from SPC for severe storms and possible tornadoes in parts of Nebraska & Iowa Saturday

"Favorable area for strong tornadoes" near Omaha into western Iowa Satursday according to SPC

Full blown tornado outbreak possible near Omaha and into western Iowa Saturday

60% chance of damaging severe weather Saturday near Omaha into western Iowa according to SPC

Slight risk for severe storms (and possible tornadoes) Sunday in southern Minnesota

Stay "sky aware" this weekend - especially in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

1.13" GFS model rainfall output for MSP by 1pm Monday

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Weekend Severe Threat:

I'm a little concerned about the threat for severe storms (and even possible tornadoes) bubbling into southern Minnesota this weekend.

Let's break down the potential severe scenario this weekend.

The System:

A powerful, "wound up" low pressure system will track near Omaha Saturday, then move into southern Minnesota by early Sunday morning.

Source: NOAA

Severe Weather Risk Factors:

This system has a few key factors going for it as a potential severe weather producer.

-Strong veering winds (low and mid level "directional wind shear") favorable for rotating storms that can produce damaging winds and tornadoes

-A strong temperature contrast and warm frontal boundary that can keep storms going through Saturday night

Storm Prediction Center: "High Risk" for severe weather & tornadoes Saturday

This system has got the attention of the SPC in Norman, Oklahoma.

SPC has issued (what I believe is) the first "high risk" of 2012 centered on Omaha for Saturday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Check out some of the alarming language in SPC's convective outlook for Saturday.
(My highlights in bold)

...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA...

"WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING JUST TO THE W...AND A BROAD WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED AND RH LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHELTERED AS WELL...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES. CELLS WOULD LIKELY FORM OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE HIGH RISK AREA WHERE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THEN WOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES."

Minnesota Threat:

Looking at the maps, I am concerned about strong to severe storms firing in southern Minnesota late Saturday and Saturday night as the strong warm front slides north into Minnesota.

Sunday's severe weather outlook
Source: NOAA/SPC

The system appears to have enough wind shear and dynamics that could keep severe (even possibly tornadic) storms going right through Saturday night into Sunday morning as the system moves into southern Minnesota.

Check out SPC's wording on Sunday's severe risk in Minnesota.
(My highlights in bold)

...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A 90 TO 110 MID-LEVEL JET NOSES IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MN AND WI WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING. NEW CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY FROM MADISON WI SWD INTO ERN IA AND FAR NW IL SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TOTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALSO SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.

And late Friday afternoon's froecast discsuuion from the Twin Cities NWS seems to support my concern for southern Minnesota, and possibly the metro early Sunday morning.

(*My notes in lower case)

"THERE SEEMS TO BE A CREDIBLE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH...WITH HIGH EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS ON SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN. RECENT RESEARCH DONE HERE BY DEVINNY AND HULTQUIST SHOW THAT THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN (SOUTHWEST FLOW ARCHETYPE) WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT HAD STRONG NIGHTTIME TORNADOES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE DISTRESSING IS WATCHING THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS. YESTERDAY THE NUMBER 5 ANALOG WAS MARCH 29 1998. TODAY THIS ANALOG HAS MOVED TO NUMBER 3. HENCE...SATURDAY NIGHT IS AN INTENSE PERIOD OF INTEREST."

(Translation: This pattern looks similar to the one that produced the Comfrey and St. Peter tornadoes in March 1988.)

"IN ADDITION...A DIFFLUENT 850-300MB THICKNESS PATTERN SPREADS INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY 15/06Z ALONG WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 850-500MB WIND CROSSOVER IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT RACES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES. YOU DEFINITELY GET A FEEL FOR THIS LOOKING AT THE ARW WRF."

(Translation: A "bow echo" with damaging winds is possible in the metro overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.)

I would not be surprised to see SPC bump the "risk areas" further north into MN this weekend in response to the warm front and low pressure track.

As the models stand now, my view is that the most likely area for tornadic storms Saturday night and Sunday in Minnesota would be in and around a Worthington, Mankato, Albert Lea, Owatonna, Waseca, Rochester, Winona zone.

However, if the models shift the low and warm front even 60 miles north, we cannot rule out potentially tornadic storms very close to, and possible even in the metro early Sunday.

I hope I am being overly cautious here, but I calls 'em as I sees 'em.

Stay sky aware this weekend, and keep one ear/eye to developing severe weather trends and possible watches and warnings, especially south of the metro!

And please, after what we learned about people ignoring warnings in Joplin last spring, if you see or hear any "risk signals" for tornadoes or damaging winds (sirens, warnings etc) approaching you location, take cover 1st and then seek secondary information after you are in safe shelter.

PH

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Thundery night? Shower & T-Storm chances tonight

Posted at 5:17 PM on April 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Low pressure system grazing southern MN tonight

Growing chance of showers & possible T-Storms tonight from the metro south

"Slight Risk" for severe storms from SPC for southern MN
(as close as the southern metro?)

"Hailers?" Hail and gusty winds possible with any storms tonight

Quieter week ahead - Generally drier, sunnier and cooler the rest of this week starting Tuesday PM

"Integrated Warning Team" Twin Cities NWS , emergency managers and meteorologists teaming up to improve notification of severe weather disasters in Minnesota and Wisconsin. (Details below)

Source: NWS

Growing Shower & T-Storm chances tonight:

A slow moving low pressure system and warm front in southern Minnesota brings a growing chance (opportunity!) for some much needed rainfall tonight. Showers and possible T-Storms may bust out, and cover much of southern Minnesota overnight.

The latest RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) model suggests a cluster of storms breaking out between 7pm and 10pm in southern MN. The best window for showers & possible T-Storms appears to be between 10pm and 2am for the metro.

Southwest Minnesota favored for development this evening.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

Slight Risk:

NOAA's SPC has bumped up the "slight risk" area for severe storms to include southern Minnesota, and the far southern Metro.

Source: NOAA

Much needed rainfall?

My lawn and I are hopeful this trend is right. The latest RUC model cranks out .70" of rainfall for the metro overnight. We'll have to see how widespread any storms are that do develop, but we could really use a decent soaking!

Source: Iowa State University

Twin Cities NWS "Integrated Warning Team"

I'll be attending a workshop this week with several other meteorologists form the NWS and media to try and improve our communication and notification of severe weather warnings in the area. After the devastating effects of the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes last spring, this is timely stuff.

A few details here:

Don't be surprised if you hear some thunder tonight or the pitter patter of much needed rainfall on your roof.

PH

"Unsurvivable:" New NWS "Impact Based" tornado warnings debut today

Posted at 8:46 AM on April 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

"Catastrophic"

"Unsuurvivable"

A few of the words NWS will begin inserting into tornado warnings today at several NWS offices.

4 to 9 "risk signals" - It took that many different warnings a tornado was approaching before some people took shelter in the deadly Joplin tornado last spring.

Source: NWS

March 2012 - we basically rewrote the record books for March 2012 in much of the central USA

Mixed Monday - Mix of clouds, sun, and possible showers & T-Storm today in Minnesota.

"Impact Based" tornado warnings:

NWS is trotting out some new "apocalyptic" wording for tornado warnings starting today at several NWS sites in the central USA.

These new "impact based" warnings are designed to get your attention. Phrases like "catastrophic damage" or "complete destruction" or "unsurvivable" if not in shelter below ground" will appear if needed.

Source: NWS

The new warnings are largely a response to last year's deadly Joplin tornado that killed 178 people.

Source: NWS

It turns out many people in the tornado's path ignored several warnings before seeking shelter as the tornado hit.

The new warnings will feature this format:

1st line: Specific hazard- tornado/wind/hail etc.
2nd line: Tornado sighted by radar/spotter/law enforcement/public etc.
3rd line: "Potential Outcome!" Uprooted trees/extensive damage etc.
Tag line: "Significant" (major damage) or "Catastrophic"(like Joplin or Tuscaloosa tornadoes)

"Impact based" warnings will fly from 5 NWS offices in a test phase this year. NWS Wichita, Topeka, Kansas City, Springfield and St. Louis will issue the dire warnings to see if public response can be improved through harshly worded tornado warnings.

What amazed many of us after last year's Joplin tornado was how many people just waited for "visual confirmation" or other signs that a tornado was bearing down on them before taking cover...even after hearing sirens or several other warnings signals.

You would think "tornado on the ground" or "tornado warning" would be enough to get people to take cover!

March 2012: An unprecedented record breaker

You name the record; we probably broke it in March. Here are a few highlights.

+15.5 degrees at MSP Airport in March (warmest March on record)

-Warmest month ever vs. average at MSP Airport?

48.3 degrees monthly average (beats old record by +3.4 degrees!)

+1.7 degrees above average April temps!

Earliest 80 degree temp on record (March 17th)

Most 70 degree days on record for March (8 days!)

Source: NWS

Warmest March on record for MSP, Eau Claire, St. Cloud, & Duluth, International Falls

Source: NWS

2012 warmest year ever so far at Milwaukee & Madison

Warmest March on record at Chicago, Des Moines, Indy, Kansas City, Indy and New York.

Chicago had previously record a total of ten 80 degree days in all of March history, about 1 every 14 years...this month Chicago record 8 days at or above 80 degrees!

April off and running too!

It hit 90 at Luverne Sunday. According to my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, that's a new record for the earliest 90 degree day on record in Minnesota!

Here's Mark's email Monday morning. (Thanks Mark!)

"Luverne, MN reported an afternoon high of 90 F yesterday, setting a new all-time state record for April 1st (old record was 85 F at Winona in 1986). This is also a state record for the earliest 90 degrees F temperature reading in the spring season (formerly April 6, 1991 at Madison, MN where it was 90 F).......somewhat of a continuation of the remarkable warmth we saw in March, setting a new state record for the warmest month of March in history.

Mark"

Mixed weather bag Monday:

Look for a little bit of everything Monday in Minnesota. A slow moving frontal system will bring clouds, some sun, and a few showers and or a T-Storm is possible today and tonight.

Source: NWS

SPC does not have a risk for severe weather over Minnesota today, but the atmosphere is cold enough that a few of the storms may contain hail and gusty winds.

The rest fo the week looks "cooler" with highs still above average...in the upper 50s and 60s.

Just to remind us of what "weather reality" is supposed to be this time of year...the average high this week at MSP Airport is about 52 degrees!

PH

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Showery Pattern Ahead: Up to 4" of rain next 2 weeks?

Posted at 5:45 PM on March 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

Soaking rains band of showers slides through into Wednesday AM

.25" to .75"+ likely with some 1" totals possible

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

"April Showers" cooler & showery the rest of this week - more like April

Wet pattern next 2 weeks? GFS model cranks out 4" rainfall next 16 days

Ignored warnings "vast majority" of Joplin, MO residents ignored 1st (and even multiple) warning signals in deadly tornado last May

April-like showers:

Yes it's still March, but after our May and June weather the atmosphere seems to think it's April now.

Another batch of rain is sliding north from Iowa. Scattered bands of rain will slide through into Wednesday morning.

The rain may be steady and soaking overnight in much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Generally rainfall totals look to be between .25" and .75" with a few spots soaking in up to 1" by lunchtime Wednesday.

Source: wxcaster.com

Cool & showery week:

Our overall weather pattern has changed to a cooler (but still above average) wetter pattern this week.

The only exception is northwest Minnesota, where more sunshine will be the rule.

Look for another batch of showers Thursday into Friday. And again, it could be a soaker.

Wet pattern holds into April?

Looking ahead, it appears our wet pattern may persist into early April.

The GFS model keeps an active jet stream over Minnesota, and frequent storms riding the jet.

The systems could dump heavy rain at times, and may begin to take a bite out of the severe drought in much of Minnesota.

Take a look at the GFS 16-day forecast below. It cranks out 4.34" of rainfall in the next 16 days.

If we get 4"+ of rain in the next 16 days, it would begin to help ease the drought.

We need the rain to recharge parched soils from last fall, and fill up lakes and rivers.

Check out the photo from Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka. The water level is close to 3 feet below where it was last year.

Photo Credit: Paul Huttner

We can use every drop!

Joplin Revisited: "Vast majority" ignored 1st warning signals

It's easy to remember the devastating images from the deadly Joplin last May 22nd.

Joplin tonado devestation.
Image credit: NOAA

The Joplin tornado (which occurred the same day as the North Minneapolis tornado) killed 159 people and injured over 1,000.

Source: NOAA

What's amazing is how many people simply ignored the first warning signs of an approaching tornado. In fact, and NWS study after the tornado found that some failed to take protective action after hearing as many as 6 to 9 different "risk signals."

From the NWS report:

"Many of the key findings within this report involved societal aspects of warning response and risk perception. Responding to warnings is not a simple act of stimulus-response; rather it is a non-linear, multi-step, complex process. Relationships between false alarms, public complacency, and warning credibility are highly complex as well.

Finding #2b: The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not immediately go to shelter upon hearing the initial warning, whether from local warning sirens, television, NWR, or other sources. Instead, most chose to further clarify and assess their risk by waiting for, actively seeking, and filtering additional information."

"Siren fatigue" and so called "optimism bias" (the feeling that it just won't happen to me) were two of the reasons sighted for delayed actions in the Joplin tornado.

The take away from Joplin is this. When you get the first indication of severe weather at your location take action now...then seek and filter additional data. Your life may depend in action in the first few seconds.

Stay dry!

PH

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Season's 1st severe shot: Wind, rain, damage; 3rd earliest ice out on 'Tonka?

Posted at 9:15 PM on March 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Ice out, Severe weather

1st severe weather warnings and damage reports of 2012 Monday evening

Possible tornado near Elysian in Le Sueur County just south of the metro?

.52" much needed rainfall at MSP Airport

.56" at Flying Cloud in Eden Prairie

1"+ in parts of southern Minnesota

12,000+ without power at the height of the storm

Source: Xcel Energy

Unsettled & showery - April like weather the rest of this week

It's here.

Ice out on Minnetonka and severe storms in on the same day in March? Ugh...

If Monday's first shot of severe weather coming on March 19th is any indication, it's going to be a long, busy summer in the weather lab.

The line of storms rolled though Monday evening with downpours, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and bright flashes of lightning.

There are a few reports of damage.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
946 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 PM TSTM WND DMG EAGLE BEND 46.17N 95.03W
03/19/2012 TODD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE TO BARN AND A FEW TREES SNAPPED OFF.

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG CARVER 44.76N 93.63W
03/19/2012 CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE TO GAS STATION IN DOWNTOWN CARVER. ROOF OF GAS
PUMPS HAD SHEET METAL RIPPED OFF.

0615 PM TSTM WND GST GLENVILLE 43.57N 93.28W
03/19/2012 M56.00 MPH FREEBORN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

FORTY FOOT EVERGREEN TREE TOPPLED.

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROOFS RIPPED OFF BETWEEN LAKE ELYSIAN AND LAKE
FRANCIS. PUBLIC REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO SMALL BOATS FLIPPED OVER AT LAKE ELYSIAN.

The good news? I picked up .a much needed .40" of rainfall at the weather lab. As much as .50" to 1"+ fell over much of the metro and southern MN.

Tonka ice out Monday?

Still awaiting official announcement from the Freshwater Society, but to my eyes it looks like Lake Minnetonka was ice free and navigable Monday afternoon.

St. Louis Bay looking west out to the "main" lower lake on Minnetonka ice free Monday afternoon.

Photo credit: Paul Huttner

If true, it's the 3rd earliest ice out on record for the big west metro lake, and the earliest in 12 years.

Source: Freshwater Society

Look for an unsettled April like week with temps in the 60s and occasional bouts of (much needed) showers.

PH

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Tornado toll mounts: Signs of an early spring for Minnesota?

Posted at 2:02 PM on March 3, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Saturday Update:

The incredible death and damage toll continues to mount from the Friday/Saturday tornado outbreak.

In this aerial photo, debris is strewn about, Saturday, March 3, 2012, in Marysville, Indiana, after a tornado swept through the area Friday. A string of violent storms demolished small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early season tornado outbreak killed more than 30 people, and the death toll rose as daylight broke on Saturday's search for survivors.(AP Photo/Al Behrman)

As of this update, at least 37 people have died, and over 100 tornadoes have been reported Friday (97 tornadoes) & Saturday.

The outbreak is focused on Florida Saturday and will finally ease by Sunday.

Track the latest watches & tornado reports here from SPC.

PH

**Original post at 5:29pm Friday**

Major severe weather outbreak strikes Ohio Valley & south

Dozens of tornadoes reported

Damage and injuries mount

Wintery weekend feel for Minnesota

Strong warming trend Monday & Tuesday

Major warm up staring next weekend?

Signs of an early spring for Minnesota?

Major Severe Outbreak:

Here we go again.

Another major early spring severe weather outbreak is pummeling the southeast and Ohio Valley. Early video via CNN.

Dozens of tornadoes have skipped eastward from the Ohio Valley as damage and the human toll climbs. The numbers will climb as the weekend unfolds.

You can follow the outbreak and check the latest numbers here at SPC.

The fast moving front will sail off the east coast Saturday, mercifully bringing an end to the path of destruction.

Wintery weekend?

This weekend will feel more like winter than spring in Minnesota.

A cool exhaust from an eastward passing storm will keep Minnesota in mostly sub-freezing air this weekend. Daytime highs may approach the low 30s in the south, but overnight lows will be in the teens and colder.

The fresh deep snow cover over the northern 3/4 of Minnesota will keep things feeling frosty this weekend.

Warming trend starts Monday:

Winds will blow from the south starting on Monday. The milder air will funnel in, and temps should respond Monday, and especially Tuesday.

There are signs we could be as warm as 50+ degrees on Tuesday, but there are a few kinks that could thwart the rise.

1) Monday fog potential: Whenever we get southerly flow over snow pack melting can create fog. That can stop a warm up in its tracks.

We'll have to keep an eye out for potential fog Monday and Monday night that could linger and slow down daytime temp rises.

2) Snow pack: All things being equal, snow covered areas will not warm as much as bare ground. Temps may soar into the 60s southern Minnesota Tuesday on bare ground in sunshine. Temps will be cooler over snow covered areas.

How much snow the Twin Cities is able to melt Monday (we won't melt much at all this weekend) will determine how warm we get Tuesday.

One factor in favor of 50s in the metro Tuesday? The ground is mostly snow free just south of the metro, and a good strong southerly wind Tuesday may just overcome existing snow cover by mixing down warmer air from above.

Signs of an early spring this year?

After a cool down later next week, there are signs that pint to a major warming trend by next weekend, and a potential early spring in Minnesota this year.

1) The upper air pattern supports massive warming starting the weekend of March 10th-11th. With most of the snow gone by then in the metro and higher sun angle, temps could soar to into the 60s if the GFS patterns verify.

Medium range models are mush better with large scale temperature trends than with predicting individual storms. That lends more credibility to the notion of a sustained warming trend starting next weekend.

2) The overall pattern looks much warmer later in March. If the GFS is right, temps could approach 70 in southwest Minnesota the weekend of March 17th! CPC's outlooks also favor warmth for March.

March Daffodils? Early ice out?

If that happens, expect early blooms and some of the earliest "ice out" dates on Minnesota lakes in recent years.

The average long term date for ice out on Lake Minnetonka is April 13th.

At this point, I'd put my money on about Saturday March 17th, 3:45pm.

But that's just a guess.

Have a great weekend!

PH

Major severe outbreak today; Tornadoes slam southeast & Ohio Valley

Posted at 1:25 PM on March 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Keeping an eye on a major severe weather outbreak today in the southeast and Ohio Valley regions.

Numerous tornadoes have already touched down, with significant damage.

Tornado watches are up for a good chunk of the Ohio Valley, where SPC has posted a "high" risk for severe weather.

Follow the developments here at the Storm Prediction Center.

PH

Cold now; Snow trends north Saturday; 50 by Thanksgiving?

Posted at 9:02 AM on November 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, Severe weather, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

Today's World Sunlight Map shows daybreak in Minnesota.
(Click images to enlarge)

25 degrees in the metro this morning!

March 30th - last time it was this cold in Minnesota (Nearly 8 months ago)

19 degrees - forecast low in the metro Thursday morning!

70% chance - Weather Lab estimate for a "plowable" snow in Brainerd, Duluth & Iron Range by Saturday night

30% chance - Weather Lab estimate for season's first 1" snowfall at MSP Airport Saturday night

71% of peope first heard about storms in Tuscaloosa tornado outbreak on TV & radio

5% first heard of storm though "social media"

Novembrrrrrr!

It's finally here.

The coldest air mass in nearly 8 months has invaded Minnesota. This one feels different. Last night's bracing, window rattling northwest wind made you hunch over and step lively to get into the car.

The temps plunged to 25 this morning at MSP, with a few teens up north. Wind chills made it feel like teens and single digits in Minnesota this morning.

Yes, it's back!

Our wintery preview peaks tonight and early Thursday, as temps bottom out in the teens south with a few single digits north.

Temps will begin to moderate Thursday and should reach the 40s again (with a shot at 50 in the south) by Friday afternoon.

Saturday Snow: Trending north

The forecast models are fairly consistent with the track of our potential weekend winter storm. The latest runs seem to favor a surface low track near La Crosse by Saturday night.

If the GFS is right, the rain snow line looks to be setting up from near Redwood Falls to St. Cloud most of Saturday.

The temperatures profile for the storm appears to be warm enough for motly rain in the metro, changing to a little burst of wet snow as the storm slides by later Saturday night.

Moisture fields also show a rapid drop off in precip totals along the southern edge of the storm, with system precipitation totals as low as .25" in the metro.

The track, temp and moisture fields still suggest the heaviest "plowable" snow band setting up along an Alexandria-Brainerd-Iron Range-North Shore line. These areas could be in line for potentially 6" or more by early Sunday morning.

GFS snowfall map shows Saturday snow potential.

Tracks can still change...stay tuned on this one!

Mild Thanksgiving Day?

The early look at Thanksgiving trends mild. Assuming bare ground and some sun (which seems likely at this point) southerly winds should help boost temps to near 50 again in southern Minnesota.

"Old Media" still rules in severe weather outbreaks

Many people these days get a forecast or radar snapshot from their smart phone.

But in last year's devastating tornado outbreaks in Tuscaloosa and other markets, TV and radio were still king.

Research from Raycom Media (yes, a TV company) shows that as many as 71% of all people first heard about the coming storms from TV, with radio the second choice.

Only 5% of people first heard about the storms through Internet or mobile devices. Of those who did sample the Internet, 50% went to TV or radio websites for information.

"Chances are you know someone who has been affected by the floods, fires, tornadoes, earthquakes or hurricanes this past year. You may have even been impacted yourself. In Alabama, on April 27, a series of tornadoes destroyed more than 13,000 homes and killed 246 people in a matter of a few hours. The storms hit very close to home -- physically and emotionally -- with our Montgomery, Birmingham and Huntsville stations directly affected.

Although only a few (5%) of respondents reported going to the Internet for information tracking the storms, half of those were going to a station websites. Additionally, 5% were receiving information on mobile sites. Stations were active in distributing information via their own broadcasts, on the radio, on the Internet and even on mobile to keep their communities safe."

It seems people may still depend on the "live and local" severe weather information they get from local media most during severe weather outbreaks.

PH

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Joplin tornado report; Did "optimisim bias" kill?

Posted at 7:00 PM on September 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

The NWS released an extensive report on the devastating Joplin tornado this spring.

Among the many findings on how people reacted (and why many may have died) is that many people in Joplin basically ignored initial warnings about the storm and failed to take protective action.

It's a classic study on a difficult fact that you can give credible accurate severe weather warnings, and sometimes people still ignore then, even at risk of imminent death!

First the basics from the report: (My highlights in bold)

"On May 22, 2011, one of the deadliest tornadoes in United States history struck Joplin, Missouri, directly killing 159 people and injuring over 1,000. The tornado, rated EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with maximum winds over 200 mph, affected a significant part of a city with a population of more than 50,000 and a population density near 1,500 people per square mile. As a result, the Joplin tornado was the first single tornado in the United States to result in over 100 fatalities since the Flint, Michigan, tornado of June 8, 1953."

The Track:

Here's the track of the deadly Joplin EF5 tornado.

Plenty of warning "lead time:"

From an NWS and meteorological perspective, this was a "well warned" event.

Looking at the timeline of events below you can see there was a full 25 minute lead time from the first tornado warning and the initial tornado touchdown! Sirens wailed 23 minutes before the tornado touched ground southwest of Joplin.

"Optimism Bias:" People ignored warnings, failed to act:

So called "optimisim bias" played a role in people not taking decisive action in Joplin.

From the report:

"The vast majority of Joplin residents did not immediately take protective action upon receiving a first indication of risk (usually via the local siren system), regardless of the source of the warning. Most chose to further assess their risk by waiting for, actively seeking, and filtering additional information.

Interviews showed aspects of worldview that influenced risk perception and warning response included: previous experiences with tornadoes, apathy, familiarity with seasonal weather patterns in southwest Missouri, optimism bias, perceived frequency of siren activation in Joplin, social networks as mechanisms for warning dissemination, avid fear of tornadoes, and the number of deadly tornadoes earlier in the year."

"Normalization" of severe weather:

The notion that storms "always seem to fade or go around" Joplin played a role that day. Sound familiar Twin Cities?

Again, from the report:

"Similarly, familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to ―storms always blowing over and missing Joplin,‖ or that there seemed like there was a ―protective bubble‖ around Joplin, or ―there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin.‖.

In Joplin, it is community policy to sound sirens when either a tornado is reported to be moving toward Joplin or severe thunderstorm winds are expected to exceed 75 mph. These triggers may or may not be associated with an NWS warning, and the Jasper County/Joplin Emergency Manager has discretion and uses professional judgment on when to activate sirens. These types of local warning system policies are by no means unique to Joplin."

"Warning confusion:" Too many severe weather sources?

How many sources of severe weather information is too many in this technological age? Is it really wise to buy that latest smart phone severe weather app? Or is it better to rely on one credible source of severe weather info? The reality is probably a combination, but the lesson form Joplin is clear. If a tornado warning is issued, don't assume you have time to figure it out. Take cover FIRST, and then sift through additional sources for clarifying info.

Some examples of "risky" recations to intial (and in some cases multiple) warnings before the tornado hit from the report:

"The number of signals between first indication of severe weather and protective action markedly increased as information became conflicted or unclear. In the most extreme example, one resident's interview indicated nine risk signals identified before taking protective action:

1. Heard first sirens at 511 pm CDT (estimated 30-35 minutes before tornado hit).
2. Went to the TV and heard NWR warning from TV override that indicated tornado near airport drive 7 miles north (polygon #30) of his location.
3. Went on porch with family and had a cigar. Looked like a regular thunderstorm.
4. Heard second sirens (estimated 27 minutes later).
5. Thought something wasn't right so went inside and turned local TV stations on.
6. Saw on TV several colored counties for tornado warnings, but regular programming was still on and thought the threat was still to the north.
7. Heard his wife yell ―basement,‖ grabbed the cat and told son to put his shoes on.
8. Tornado hit as they reached the top of the basement stairs, destroying their home."

"Wall to wall" media coverage saved lives:

It appears we are now (rightfully so?) conditioned to respond when local media (primarily radio & TV) break into local programming with "wall to wall" coverage of severe weather.

"Finding #2d: The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not take protective action until receiving and processing credible confirmation of the threat and its magnitude from a non-routine trigger.

c. Hearing a second, non-routine, siren alert at approximately 538 pm CDT."

There's a lot more to sift through in this extensive report, but the findings are an eye opening study about how and why people respond in different ways to severe weather information.

PH

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USA 2011: Most catastrophic weather year on record!

Posted at 7:44 AM on September 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Severe weather

Here's a record nobody wanted to break.

Hurricane Irene was the 10th "billion dollar weather disaster" to hit the USA in 2011. That's the highest number of billion dollar weather disasters to hit the USA since such records were kept starting in 1980.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, (NCDC) 2011 through May was the costliest year since they began tracking billion dollar disasters in 1980. Economic damage costs to date in the US exceed $35 Billion. This damage amount does not yet take into account the losses from Hurricane Irene.
(Estimates for Irene run as high as 7 billion.)

Here is the preliminary summary of the 10 U.S. Billion dollar disasters that have occurred so far in 2011: (NCDC data)

Hurricane Irene, August 20-29, 2011 While it will take several months to determine an accurate estimate of the damage from Hurricane Irene, there is no question it will rank as the 10th billion-dollar weather/climate event of the year. This 10th U.S. billion-dollar disaster officially breaks the annual record dating back to 1980.

Irene was battering eastern North Carolina shortly before noon on August 27, 2011, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite took this picture.

Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011 Melting of an above-average snow pack across the Northern Rocky Mountains combined with above-average precipitation caused the Missouri and Souris Rivers to swell beyond their banks across the Upper Midwest (MT, ND, SD, NE, IA, KS, MO). An estimated 11,000 people were forced to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to the record high water level of the Souris River, where 4,000 homes were flooded. Numerous levees were breached along the Missouri River, flooding thousands of acres of farmland. Estimated losses exceed $2.0 billion as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15). The flooding also stretched into the Canadian Prairies, where property and agriculture losses were expected to surpass $1.0 billion, at least 5 deaths.

Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011 Persistent rainfall (nearly 300 percent normal precipitation amounts in the Ohio Valley) combined with melting snowpack caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Estimated economic loss ranges from $2.0-4.0 billion; at least 2 deaths. Below are more detailed stats, which are preliminary, as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15): $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas; $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee; $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi; $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri's Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway; $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana.

Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer, 2011 Drought, heatwave, and wildfires have created major impacts across the Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Arkansas and Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, 75% and 63% of range and pasture conditions were classified in 'very poor' condition as of mid-August. Wildfire fighting/suppression costs for the region are also ~$1 million / day with over 2,000 homes and structures lost. The total direct losses (as of August 15) to agriculture, cattle and structures are well over $5.0 billion; both direct and total economic losses will rise dramatically as the event continues.

Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (MO, TX, OK, KS, AR, GA, TN, VA, KY, IN, IL, OH, WI, MN, PA) with an estimated 180 tornadoes and 177 deaths. Notably, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, MO resulting in at least 141 deaths, making it the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950. Over $4.9 billion insured losses for event; total losses greater than $7.0 billion; 177 deaths.

Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (AL, AR, LA, MS, GA, TN, VA, KY, IL, MO, OH, TX, OK) with an estimated 305 tornadoes and 327 deaths. Of those fatalities, 240 occurred in Alabama. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak, an EF-5, hit northern Alabama, killing 78 people. Several major metropolitan areas were directly impacted by strong tornadoes including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the estimated damage costs to soar. Over $6.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $9.0 billion; 327 deaths.

Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (OK, TX, AR, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, VA, PA) with an estimated 160 tornadoes. Despite the large overall number of tornadoes, few were classified as intense, with just 14 EF-3, and no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes identified. Over $1.4 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 38 deaths [22 of which were in North Carolina].

Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (NC, SC, TN, AL, TX, OK, KS, IA, WI) with an estimated 59 tornadoes. Over $1.5 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, 0 deaths.

Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (KS, MO, IA, IL, WI, KY, GA, TN, NC, SC) with an estimated 46 tornadoes. Over $1.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.3 billion; 9 deaths.

Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3, 2011 Large winter storm impacting many central, eastern and northeastern states. The city of Chicago was brought to a virtual standstill as between 1 and 2 feet of snow fell over the area. Insured losses greater than $1.1 billion; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 36 deaths.

"The U.S. has sustained 109 weather/climate related disasters over the past 31+ years in which overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total standardized losses for the 109 events exceed $750 billion. Events are listed below beginning with the most recent. Two damage figures are given for events prior to 2011 - the first figure represents actual dollar costs at the time of the event and is not adjusted for inflation. The value in parenthesis is the disaster cost adjusted to 2011 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Estimates are periodically updated as more data/information become available. Sources include the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, US Department of Agriculture, other U.S. government agencies, individual state emergency management agencies, state and regional climate centers, media reports, and insurance industry estimates."

So where are you most likely to run into a "billion dollar weather disaster?" As you might expect, the southeast (hurricanes) and tornado alley are the most likely places in the USA. Yet another reason to appreciate living in Minnesota?

Bottom Line: By the measure of billion dollar disasters, this has been the most "extreme weather year" in the USA since at least 1980.

Climate change link?

Even though the trends are striking, we may never be 100% certain that climate change is playing a role in the increasing number of billion dollar disasters.

While many politicians refuse to acknowledge the trends, it appears the insurance industry isn't taking any chances. The story from Bloomberg.

Market, Politicians Going Separate Ways on Climate Change: View

"Hurricane Irene's residue is likely to include a confusing debate over whether insurers or property owners are responsible for storm-caused water damage. There's no lack of clarity, however, over whether the insurance industry believes in climate change and its ties to lethal weather: It does.

If elected officials want to help constituents prepare for disaster, they could fight for legislation to curb carbon emissions, and they could keep people from building along coastlines. Politicians have enjoyed enormous success calling scientists into question. The market may not prove to be such an easy target."

If money and markets are leading indicators, politicians may be behind the times on the economic impacts of climate change.

PH

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SPC: Slight severe risk today for Minnesota

Posted at 8:28 AM on August 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Keep an eye to the western sky today.

A stunningly gorgeous morning will give way to increasing storm coverage this afternoon as a cold front pushes southeast through Minnesota.

The best chance for storms will be this morning in northwest Minnesota, and storm chances will grow from northwest to southeast today.

NOAA experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRR) model radar output paints a growing area of storms from north-central MN to west of the metro by 1pm today.

It looks like the best window for storms in the greater Twin Cities metro will be between 3pm and 7pm today. I expect a SPC will issue a severe thunderstorm watch today for much of central and eastern Minnesota. We will likely see a few warnings issued today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has stamped most all of Minnesota under a slight risk fro severe weather today. The primary threats will be high winds and hail with any storms that do reach severe limits. (58 mph winds, 1"+ diameter hail)

SPC issues 3 different "categorical" risk areas, slight-moderate and high. Here's the breakdown of what they mean, in terms of severe weather probabilities within 25 miles of any one point.

Track the developing storms today here:

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Watches & warnings via Twin Cities NWS

Cool front brings beautiful Wednesday & Thursday!

Behind the front, expect a change in air masses. A cooler and drier puff of Canadian air will slip in Wednesday into Thursday. Look for highs in the 70s Wednesday, with low 80s south. Dew points in the lower 50s south and 40s up north will give us a little September preview!

State Fair Preview: Classically warm & summery?

Looking ahead to the start of the State Fair next week, it looks like summery weather may hold. Signs are a moderately strong ridge of high pressure will build back into the Upper Midwest. That could mean classic "State Fair Weather" with highs into the 80s and a touch of humidity. Just perfect for a cool drink...or a hot corn dog?

Stay tuned!

PH

Evening by the campfire

Posted at 6:41 AM on August 9, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

A real-deal cool front swept through Minnesota and the surrounding area in the past eighteen hours. Temperatures and dew points have responded accordingly with this change in air masses. Look for brisk winds today, easing from west to east during the late afternoon.

Overnight lows in the 40s in northern Minnesota will feel a little on the nippy side for early August. We were due for a cool spell. The last time the tempreatures were below normal for a lengthy period was from July 12th through the 15th when the mercury failed to reach 80 degrees in the Twin Cities

On Monday there were numerous reports of hail in northeast Minnesota and rainfall totalled over three quarters of an inch at both International Falls and Duluth. The Duluth Airport has already collected 3.88 inches of rain for the month of August. Here's the storm report for August 8th from the Duluth NWS Office.

Given the rather frequent and generous rainfall for much of the spring and summer the DNR reports a minimal fire danger, except for a small portion of far northern Minnesota. Yesterday's rain of 0.87 inches at International Falls was welcome.

The predicted high of 73 degrees in the Twin Cities for this afternoon will be the coolest reading since the high of 74 on July 14th. A return to high temperatures close to 80 is in the offing for Thursday and Friday.

Let's see if the favored cool spots in the state can record a minimum temperature in the 30s on Wednesday morning. They'll need clear skies and nearly calm winds. Anybody betting on Embarrass to pull this off?
CE

Round one racing through the Twin Cities

Posted at 1:18 PM on August 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Strong to severe thunderstorms were moving through the Twin Cities and points south early this afternoon.

Here's a link to the latest storm reports from the National Weather Service.

Clearing is taking place in western Minnesota and the atmosphere could ignite once again. Stayed for breaking weather and be sky aware. Here's the recent outlook for tornado potential this afternoon and evening. These probabilities are quite high.

The atmosphere is primed for thunderstorm development.

SPC drops severe T-Storm Watch; Hot breezy & humid today

Posted at 3:35 PM on July 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

SPC has dropped the watch for Minnesota and the metro. Severe weather is unlikely this afternoon, but we may see a few storms develop along a cold front to the northwest (between Fargo and Alex) this evening.

Here's my internal email to MPR staffers after SPC issued the watch today. Enjoy the hot, breezy humid summer day!

"Update:

My own read of this situation is that SPC may have jumped the gun a bit on throwing out this watch. The weak disturbance that caused the Wisconsin storms is moving away from us, and the cold front that may fire storms later is still up to the northwest between Fargo and Alex.

Bottom line my read is that storms are more likely to develop later this evening...but the folks at SPC are the best trained severe weather minds in the world, so stay alert for possible development near the metro today.

I'll let you know if I see anything pop. I'm thinking we may see storms develop along I-94 between Fargo and Alex in the next two hours, and the best chance for metro storms may be this evening...even as late as 9 or 10pm.

Stay tuned...

PH"

++++

Original post 2:05pm

Our hot humid summery air mass has prompted a severe T-Storm Watch until 9pm that includes much of central MN and the metro.

Initial storms fired along a weak boundary east and west of the Twin Cities, but activity has died down a bit since then. It is possible the initial storms were caused by a weak passing "short wave" in northern Wisconsin, and that additional development may hold off until this evening.

Still, the watch is in effect until 9pm and we should stay alert for possible development and warnings.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...

(Here's the SPC technical "weather geek" discussion)

DISCUSSION...AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING NEAR VVV
WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF ABR-N OF MSP. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ABR/MPX SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT CAP IS NOW QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 3000-4000 J/KG. AREA
VADS AND WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
RATHER WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CONTINUE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30015.


...MEAD

Looking at the GOES 1km visible satellite image below (FREE from College of Du Page Leather Lab) you can see a psuedo line where storms may fire near the metro. The secod yellw line is the approaching cold front, and this could be the area where storms are more likely to form later today and this evening.

Keep an eye out for possible storm development today and especially this evening.

PH

Scattered storms this evening

Posted at 3:00 PM on July 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 4pm:

Storm fired rapidly over Woodbury in past few minutes. Additional rapid development possible/likely in the next hour. Heavy rainfall with these storms could cause rapid local street flooding.

-Twin Cities radar loop.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MNZ060>063-069-070-WIZ023-024-232200-
ANOKA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-PIERCE-RAMSEY-SCOTT-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
403 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

AT 357 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NEAR ST PAUL AND ACROSS THE EAST METRO. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

Update 3:40pm:

Storms so far are favoring areas north of metro. We're not out of the woods yet in the Twin Cities.

Stay tuned and stay aware for now...there is still the potential that storms could deveop near the metro through this evening!PH

Update 3pm:

Scattered storms are building as expected this afternoon. Some of the storms will be strong to severe as they move east southeast through this evening.

The storms fomed near St. Cloud where they have already prdoced hail reports.

MPX: Cold Spring [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 02:51 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 E Cold Spring [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 02:43 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 S Richmond [Stearns Co, MN] emergency mngr reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 02:45 PM CDT --

MPX: St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 02:37 PM CDT --

Storm chances will run into the evening hours in the metro and western Wisconsin.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop here

-Latest NWS weather warnings here

-Latest storm reports here

PH

****

Round #1 of our Saturday storms arrived right on schedule this morning.

Round #2 should develop this afternoon, and the "main event" could feature more severe weather than the morning storms.

Heads up: Keep an eye out for rapidly developing thunderstorms this afternoon & evening that could quickly turn severe. The most likely overall window for severe storms appears to be between 3pm and 8pm this afternoon & evening.

The system:

A cold front is cutting into the humid and unstable air mass over Minnesota today.

Timing: It appears the most likely window for a second round of storms to develop may be between 3pm and 9pm tonight in the metro area and western Wisconsin.

Storm character: Storms may develop rapidly and quickly turn severe (and potentially tornadic) this afternoon. The storms may then evolve into a bow echo with damaging straight line winds as they move east this evening.

Expect watches and possible warnings later today. Storms will be capable of extremely heavy rain, frequent lighting, damaging winds in excess of 60-70 mph and large hail.

SPC risk area today.

Tornado threat:

There is a risk for tornadoes with a few of the storms today. There is enough "shear" or spin in the lowest mile of the atmosphere to produce mesocyclones that can spin up tornadoes.

One local meteorologist, Andrew Revering, runs models that specifically calculate tornado probabilities for specific areas. Andy sent me these images highlighting the tornado threat over Minnesota today. You can see more of his work here at tornadotarget.com.

As you can see from the images below, the greatest threat for tornadic storms will likely be from St.Cloud southeast into the Twin Cities & western Wisconsin today.
(Click images to enlarge)

So called Energy Helicity Index (EHI) highlights most likely areas of (tornadic) wind shear at 7pm today.

Significant Tornado Parameter from the Storm Prediction Center's research

3km Helicity, corkscrew effect in the atmosphere, can contribute to supercells and ultimately tornadoes.

If/when storms get going this afternoon we will have live team coverage on MPR News.

Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon & evening!

PH

"Hottest" most humid MN day ever Tuesday! Severe risk today

Posted at 9:02 AM on July 20, 2011 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

And the weather hits just keep on comin'!

Call this one a "Humistorm" or "Torrid Tuesday."

The "Extreme Heat Wave of 2011" set numerous all time heat index & humidity records in Minnesota Tuesday.

3 consecutive days with 80 degree dew points at MSP Airport. (First time that has ever happened according to UM climate guru Dr. Mark Seeley)

82 degree dew point new all time record high dew point at MSP Airport. (May have been as high as 84 degrees in between hours!)

119 degree heat index (3:53pm) at MSP Airport ties all time record heat index at MSP!

88 degree dew point at Moorhead last night between 6pm and 8pm sets new all time record highest dew point reading in Minnesota! (Previous record was 86 degrees)

134 degree heat index reading at Moorhead sets new all time highest heat index reading for Minnesota! (Previous record was 124 degrees at Moorhead in 1966)

More records from Twin Cities NWS:

Temperature and Moisture Extremes During This Week's Heat Wave

The heat wave which has gripped the upper midwest since Sunday has broken records for temperature and dew point, and possibly even heat indices across the region.
In the Twin Cities:

-The record high minimum temperature was tied on July 17th, with a low temperature of 79 degrees. The record was previously set in 1936 and 1942.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

$$
MARGRAF

Uncharted Territory:

The torrid numbers in Minnesota Tuesday are simply unprecedented and astounding.

You can believe that many weather experts in Minnesota would have never imagined we'd smash heat and humidity records by such magnitude. The new (still unofficial) heat index record of 134 degrees at Moorhead Tuesday blew the previous record out of the water by a full 10 degrees!

With a heat index of 134 degrees, Moorhead was literally the hottest place on the planet Tuesday!

This truly was a "humidity storm" for Minnesota of epic proportions. Never before have Minnesotans felt such oppressive combined heat and humidity levels. While temperatures did not even come close to the state record of 114 degrees, dew point and heat index values were off the charts.

Why so hot & humid?

There's a simple explanation for why we're enduring record setting heat & humidity levels in Minnesota this week, and potentially more complicated reasons.

A huge intense ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is acting like a "heat pump." Under the ridge the air is sinking and compressing, creating the heat wave. This is normal in a Midwest summer.

The more complicated factors may include the injection of additional low level moisture from the ocean of corn that lies in Iowa and southern Minnesota. Corn is an efficient "evapotranspirator." Studies have shown that massive corn fields can raise dew points in the environment as the corn "sweats" on hot summer days.

Take an already tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and slide it over an ocean of corn in Iowa and Minnesota and you are truly modifying the air mass to become even more tropical. Call it an "uber-tropical" or "agriculturally modified" air mass.

Cool Front: Relief just 12 to 18 hours away!

A cool front cutting through Minnesota today will bring relief, but not before one more "excessively hot" day.

Highs will approach of exceed 100 in southern Minnesota today, including the Twin Cities metro. As drier air pushes in ahead of the front, dew points may actually fall into the lower 70s and 60s. The drier air will heat more efficiently, and as a result air temperatures may actually be hotter than Tuesday, even as heat index values are lower in some cases.

Either way you slice it, it's still going to be stinking hot today with temps & heat index values over 100 degrees until the front arrives.

More records today?

Details from Twin Cities NWS...

Another hot day is in store for the region today. High temperatures will be approaching record levels today, and the highest low temperature record in the Twin Cities is in jeopardy for July 20th. Here are the record highs and record highest minimum temperatures for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, and Eau Claire:

Twin Cities:

Record High: 102 set in 1901
Record Highest Minimum: 76 set in 1901, 1935, and 1940 (low temperature so far today has been 83 degrees)
St. Cloud:

Record High: 105 set in 1901
Record Highest Minimum: 80 set in 1901 (low temperature so far today has been 78 degrees, so this record is safe)
Eau Claire:

Record High 102 set in 1932
Record Highest Minimum: 81 set in 1932 (low temperature so far today has been 72 degrees, so this record is safe)

Severe risk today:

As the cool front slices into the hot unstable air mass, a line of severe storms may expand from north to south.

SPC has most of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather today.

Storms will be common in northern Minnesota early, and may fire south into the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin by later afternoon and evening. High wind and hail appear to be the primary threats, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.

Keep an eye on the sky today for storms and possible warnings!

PH

Comment on this post

Heat continues this week

Posted at 5:29 AM on July 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

The huge high pressure ridge which is pumping hot air into Minnesota will stay locked in place this week.

The dew point Sunday reached an Amazon Jungle level 81 degrees at 9pm CDT. Official confirmation will have to wait for MN State Climate staff to return to work, but I believe this ties the all time highest dew point record for the Twin Cities!

Expect more highs in the 90s, and with tropically oppressive dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees heat index values will again soar into the 110 to 115 degree range.

Stay cool!

PH

Comment on this post

Anatomy of an MCS: A 24 hour + weather odyssey

Posted at 5:22 PM on July 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Call it the big little storm that could.

Sunday night's MCS (Mesocale Convective System) that tore through Minnesota with high winds & heavy rain is still going strong late Monday....in West Virginia!

Check out the time line & progress of the now 24 hour + old MCS. You can see a really cool 24 hour animated high res radar loop here.

2pm Sunday: Bismarck, North Dakota

The radar image below shows the developing thunderstorm cluster near Bismarck, North Dakota Sunday afternoon. Note the storms are still cellular in nature and not yet organized into a "bow echo' structure. The storms produced an EF-2 tornado near Napoleon, ND Sunday.

T-Storm cluster developing into MCS near Bismarck, ND Sunday.

Damage near Napoleon, ND Sunday.

11pm Sunday: Twin Cities

Two distinct bow echoes are now racing through central and southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities Sunday night.

Bow echoes racing though the Twin Cities Sunday night.

-Twin Cities NWS storm reports

10 AM Monday: Chicago & Northern Indiana

One massive, well organized "classic" bow echo structure is now crossing Lake Michigan into northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan after barreling through Chicago. The storms produced extensive wind damage and even a rare seiche on Lake Michigan!

From Chicago NWS:

"During the morning hours of July 11, 2011, a line of severe thunderstorms moved very quickly across northern Illinois and southern Lake Michigan, producing widespread wind damage. In addition, the strong thunderstorm winds with this system generated a classic seiche event on the lake. A seiche is a situation where lake water ahead of the storms is piled up along the downstream shore (in this case Indiana and Michigan) and then sloshes back and forth across the lake for several hours. The danger from a seiche comes from rapidly rising and falling lake levels, which can damage watercraft along the shoreline, sweep people off piers and breakwaters, and pull swimmers far away from shore."

Classic bow echo crossing Lake Michigan into Indiana Monday morning.

5:46pm EDT: West Virginia

The same MCS is now producing a bow echo in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and turning to the right with upper level steering winds as it rambles southeast.

Bow echo "turning right" and diving southeast into West Virginia Monday afternoon.

Let's see how long this MCS lasts.

Enjoy our fabulous weather in the meantime!

PH

Good day for sky awareness

Posted at 8:05 AM on July 10, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms ignited overnight in southwest Minnesota and spread east northeast into the southern Twin Cities Metro. This batch of storms is currently losing punch in our area and moving through central Wisconsin.

Another very warm and humid day is on tap. Be sky aware and monitor for possible watches and warnings this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Predicition Center has outlined a rather broad area of the state with potential for damaging winds, exceeding 60 mph in the next 18 hours.

Scan for clues in the sky of darkening and advancing clouds, along with lightning and thunder. Those observations tend to give a headsup that dangerous weather may be in the vicinty.
CE

Damaging storms move east. Nicer holiday weekend!

Posted at 8:45 PM on July 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 9pm:

Storms moving east overnight.

-Latest warnings and damage reports.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Weekend forecast here.

I'm away on vacation next week. Have a great 4th of July weekend!

PH

Hi....just wanted to pass this pic on, I took at it 650pm this evening near Madelia as the storm moved in. You can see the first big gusts stirring up dust on the road. Photo by Mark Steil.

MPX: White Bear Lake [Ramsey Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 01 Jul, 07:31 AM CDT -- 6-8 inch branches down

Update 7:45pm:

New line of storms exhibiting "bow echo" trends moving toward the metro fromthe southwest. Expect storms to increase between 8 and 9pm in the metro from southwest to northeast.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
723 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEW AUBURN TO 10 MILES NORTH OF NORTH MANKATO...AND MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
GAYLORD...
ST PETER...
LE SUEUR...
NEW AUBURN...
BELLE PLAINE...
GLENCOE...
RUSH RIVER...
KASOTA...
ARLINGTON...
PLATO...
GREEN ISLE...
CLEVELAND...
HAMBURG...
HENDERSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Update 7:10pm:

Storm reports still coming in this evening.

MPX: Buffalo [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:53 PM CDT -- top of large trees being snapped

MPX: St Louis Park [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:50 PM CDT -- trees down around highway 169...4 miles south of 49th ave. time estimated.

MPX: Buffalo [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:53 PM CDT -- top of large trees being snapped

New line of storms pushing through southern Minnesota may approach metro between 8-9pm.

***

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CHISAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ISANTI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
KANABEC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MILLE LACS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 640 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HOLDINGFORD TO BECKER TO HAMEL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ST CLOUD...
BUFFALO...
PRINCETON...
MILACA...
CAMBRIDGE...
NORTH BRANCH...
MORA...
HANOVER...
MONTICELLO...
CLEAR LAKE...
BECKER...
HAMEL...
HOLDINGFORD...
WAITE PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...WHICH CAN UPROOT
TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE OVERTURNED. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND WINDOWS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

Update 6:30pm:

Expect scattered storms in the metro this evening. Damage reports continue to the west.

MPX: 1 S Big Lake [Sherburne Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND GST of M71 MPH at 06:15 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 S Cosmos [Meeker Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:00 PM CDT -- several large trees down...a few homes damaged.

MPX: Hutchinson [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:17 PM CDT -- many large trees downed. roof damage to home residence.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 617 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR ROCKVILLE...
OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANT LAKE...AND MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ST CLOUD...
PLEASANT LAKE...
LUXEMBURG...
COLD SPRING...
ST JOSEPH...
WAITE PARK...
COLLEGEVILLE...
SAUK RAPIDS...
SARTELL...
ST STEPHEN...
PARENT...
MAYHEW...
RICE...

This from SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MN/NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...

VALID 012336Z - 020130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581
CONTINUES.

STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW
ATTM...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS E CENTRAL
MN INTO NWRN WI. A MESOLOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS -- AND WITH VERY MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS...EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
THE WATCH TOWARD WRN LK SUPERIOR AND VICINITY.

VERY LARGE HAIL -- INTO THE BASEBALL AND SOFTBALL SIZE RANGE -- HAS
OCCURRED WITH THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH.
EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH-END SEVERE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE WITH
ORGANIZED STORMS INVOF THE MESOLOW...ALONG WITH LESSER -- BUT STILL
SUBSTANTIAL -- ISOLATED POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE WITHIN/NEAR VALID
PORTIONS OF THE WW.

Update 6:05pm:

Damaging storms continue in much of central MN....especially between the metro and St. Cloud.

MPX: Hutchinson [Mcleod Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:55 PM CDT -- crow river vet hospital on highway 7 roof off. power pole down. address is 890 south grade road. estimated time.

MPX: 5 N Big Lake [Sherburne Co, MN] amateur radio reports HAIL of baseball size (M2.75 INCH) at 06:02 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 S Big Lake [Sherburne Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND GST of M70 MPH at 06:01 PM CDT --

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN ISANTI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN MILLE LACS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 550 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ST NICHOLAS TO ANNANDALE TO LESTER PRAIRIE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...
ST CLOUD...
PRINCETON...
MILACA...
SOUTH HAVEN...
ST NICHOLAS...
KIMBALL...
WATKINS...
COKATO...
EDEN VALLEY...
MANANNAH...
DASSEL...
ANNANDALE...
HOWARD LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...WHICH CAN UPROOT
TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE OVERTURNED. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND WINDOWS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ059>062-068-069-076-012345-
ANOKA-CARVER-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WRIGHT-
602 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...LINE OF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER ANOKA...CARVER...
HENNEPIN...LE SUEUR...RAMSEY...SCOTT AND WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM CDT...

AT 559 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WATERTOWN TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WACONIA TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HENDERSON. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF INCLUDE...
COLOGNE.
ST BONIFACIUS.
MOUND.
SHOREWOOD.
EXCELSIOR.
WOODLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE MINNETONKA...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

Update 5:42pm:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNC067-085-093-129-143-145-171-012315-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110701T2315Z/
KANDIYOHI MN-MCLEOD MN-MEEKER MN-RENVILLE MN-SIBLEY MN-STEARNS MN-
WRIGHT MN-
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS...NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...EASTERN
RENVILLE...MEEKER...MCLEOD AND SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF HAWICK TO 6 MILES NORTH
OF LITCHFIELD TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF DASSEL TO BROWNTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISCAY...COKATO...SILVER LAKE...MANANNAH...GLENCOE...EDEN VALLEY...
HOWARD LAKE...WATKINS...KIMBALL...SOUTH HAVEN...FAIRHAVEN...
ANNANDALE...ST NICHOLAS...STOCKHOLM AND KINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH
WILL UPROOT TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE
TO BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES. EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE
OVERTURNED. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

Update 5:30pm:

Storms deveoping and increasing west of metro now. Expect coverage to increase in next 1-2 hours in west & northwest metro.

Damaging wind and hail reports continue.

MPX: 2 Ne Renville [Renville Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:25 PM CDT -- two foot trees down.

MPX: 4 Sw Dassel [Meeker Co, MN] storm chaser reports HAIL of M4.25 INCH at 05:17 PM CDT -- via spotter network

MPX: 2 Se Dassel [Meeker Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 05:09 PM CDT --

MPX: Redwood Falls [Redwood Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M63 MPH at 05:11 PM CDT -- measured from the redwood falls airport

Update 5:10pm:

Damaging winds in Redwood Falls.

MPX: Redwood Falls [Redwood Co, MN] storm chaser reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 05:00 PM CDT --

MPX: Redwood Falls [Redwood Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND GST of M78 MPH at 04:58 PM CDT -- measured with car anemometer.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 427 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR MILLS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LITCHFIELD...
CEDAR MILLS...
CORVUSO...
DARWIN...
DASSEL...
COKATO...
HOWARD LAKE...
WATKINS...
WAVERLY...
MONTROSE...
SOUTH HAVEN...

GOES 1km visible satellite inage shows mushrooming T-Storm complex over southern Minnesota.

Update 4:55pm:

Continue to take cover in Redwood Falls...damage imminent.

FSD: Marshall [Lyon Co, MN] broadcast media reports HAIL of ping pong ball size (M1.50 INCH) at 04:25 PM CDT -- power is out in marshall with numerous trees down and windows blown out. thunderstorm winds were estimated between 65 and 70 miles an hour.

Update 4:35pm:

Possible derecho deveopling now. Expect a long lived damaging wind event with storms moving through southern Minnesota in the next 3-6 hours.

FSD: Marshall [Lyon Co, MN] public reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:28 PM CDT -- severe wind damage reported in marshall minnesota.

FSD: Marshall [Lyon Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E80 MPH at 04:25 PM CDT -- 70 to 80 mile an hour thunderstorm winds in marshall minnesota. lots of wind related damage.

Significant damage reported in Flandrau, SD.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
SOUTH DAKOTA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MOODY
COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA EMERGENCY MANAGENT.

DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN FLANDREAU...RELATED TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MOODY COUNTY...NO TRAVEL IS
ADVISED IN THE TOWN OF FLANDREAU. PLEASE AVOID ENTERING THE TOWN
OF FLANDREAU UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

Update 4:05 pm:

FSD: 3 W Lake Benton [Lincoln Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:50 PM CDT -- numerous powerlines down on highway 14

FSD: 4 W Lake Benton [Lincoln Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:50 PM CDT -- 6-8 inch diameter tree branches down...weather observation site blown down.

FSD: Lake Benton [Lincoln Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:51 PM CDT -- nickel sized hail and 4 inch plus diameter tree limbs down

Classic tornadic supercell signature now near Tyler heading toward Marshall &Tracy. Tornado warnings extended east. This storm has a history of damaging winds and golf ball sized hail.

FSD issues Tornado Warning for Lincoln [MN] till 4:30 PM CDT ...* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE BENTON...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF PIPESTONE...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

FSD: Tyler [Lincoln Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 03:59 PM CDT --

FSD: 9 W Lake Benton [Brookings Co, SD] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E65 MPH at 03:47 PM CDT --

FSD: 5 W Elkton [Brookings Co, SD] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E70 MPH at 03:42 PM CDT -- thunderstorm wind gusts estimated at 70 mph, with heavy rain and penny sized hail.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTERN MURRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ONE HOUR AS THE STORMS PASS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...BALATON...CAMDEN STATE PARK...COTTONWOOD...FLORENCE...
GHENT...MINNEOTA...RUSSELL AND TRACY.

Update 3:45pm:

Sioux Falls (FSD) radar showing strong and possibly tornadic supercell now moving into SW MN. Tornado Vortex Signature (TVS) evident on radar and tornado warnings now include Pipestone and Lincoln Counties.

FSD issues Tornado Warning for Lincoln, Pipestone [MN] and Moody [SD] till 4:00 PM CDT ...* AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FLANDREAU...OR 16 MILES WEST OF PIPESTONE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

Severe T-Storms Watch until 10pm includes metro.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF KENNEDY WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. ALL OF THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH INTENSE CELLS
CAPABLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail

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Mixed clouds & sun today; Severe risk Friday; "Loud thunder?"

Posted at 8:58 AM on June 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Weekend

Get set for a mixed weather bag again today across Minnesota.

They say all weather is local, and today will be one of those days. Even across the metro there may be big differences in sky cover today. It could be cloudy in Cambridge and sunny in Shakopee this afternoon.

Surface weather maps and the morning 1km GOES visible satellite image make 2 things clear this Thursday.

1) The center of low pressure is spinning near Hibbing & the Iron Range today.

2) The back edge of the cloud line is hanging right near the metro.

GOES 1km visible image shows low clouds. They should gradually burn off in southern Minnesota today.

Expect mostly sunny skies in southwest Minnesota...right up to the southwest edge of the metro. Cloudy skies will prevail much of the day from the metro north and east until the system slowly pulls away to the northeast, and drier air should mix in to help gradually burn off some of the low clouds near the metro.

Temperatures will recover nicely into to near 80 in the southwest, with 70s elsewhere this afternoon.

Next wave Friday:

It's hard to string together two dry days in a row this spring it seems. Our next wave of showers and T-Storms may roll in with a warm front late Friday PM & evening.

NAM model paints scattered rain & T-Storms late Friday PM & evening.

The system could generate a narrow line of convection Friday, and there may be just enough oomph to spawn a few severe storms.

Summer like weekend?

After the warm front pushes through Friday night, this weekend may finally feel a bit more like summer.

Saturday and Sunday should both bring ample sunshine and temps near 80 in southern Minnesota.

There will be a threat of a passing thunderstorm or two this weekend, but the bigger more organized storm threat appears to hold off until late Monday or Monday night.

A mostly dry weekend with occasional rain chances?

Loud Thunder?

We got several reports of "loud thunder" Tuesday night and early Wednesday in Minnesota...including in St. Paul.

That got us thinking, is thunder sometimes louder than other times?

The answer it seems is, yes!

There are a few factors that affect the volume and duration of thunder at nay location.

1) The distance from the lighting bolt. Simply put, the closer you are to the actual lighting bolt the louder and more immediate the thunder.

Nearby bolts may cause a sharp "clap" of thunder, while more distant (or horizontal) bolts may produce less intense or rolling thunder as the sound waves form different parts of the lighting bolt's thunder reach your ear.

2) Temperature inversions can make thunder louder, often at night. When there is colder air near the surface and a warm layer aloft (warm front) you get a temperature inversion...where temperatures increase with height above ground.

The inversion creates a discontinuity or "sound barrier" in the atmosphere which can "bounce" sound waves back to the ground. The result can be louder and more "rolling thunder" as the waves are more focused and reflected back to the ground level.

Temperature inversions can also be the reason distant trains or highways seem louder on some nights.

Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone: Biggest ever in 2011?

Sad news from NOAA. It looks like all that record spring flooding will create the largest "hypoxic dead zone" on record in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

The massive floodwaters in 2011 swept huge amounts fo "nitrogen runoff" into the Gulf, and the subsequent algal blooms may suck the oxygen out of the Gulf Waters.

Major flooding on the Mississippi river predicted to cause largest Gulf of Mexico dead zone ever recorded

June 14, 2011

"The Gulf of Mexico's hypoxic zone is predicted to be the largest ever recorded due to extreme flooding of the Mississippi River this spring, according to an annual forecast by a team of NOAA-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Louisiana State University and the University of Michigan. The forecast is based on Mississippi River nutrient inputs compiled annually by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Scientists are predicting the area could measure between 8,500 and 9,421 square miles, or an area roughly the size of New Hampshire. If it does reach those levels it will be the largest since mapping of the Gulf "dead zone" began in 1985. The largest hypoxic zone measured to date occurred in 2002 and encompassed more than 8,400 square miles."

On a brighter note, enjoy the quieter weather pattern most of today and early Friday!

PH

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Weather Sevice rotation track from Doppler radar

Posted at 7:22 AM on May 23, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

The Storm Center tallied 48 reports of tornadoes on Sunday. Another threat of severe weather and tornadoes is on tap today from Tulsa to St. Louis.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather reports from Sunday.

CE

Scattered showers today; Severe repeat unlikely; Anatomy of an outbreak

Posted at 8:40 AM on May 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

You may need your umbrella today, but hopefully your weather radio won't be blaring away like last night.

A cool front has slipped through the metro overnight. The front will stall today from near the Twin Cities south into Iowa and be the focal point for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Unlike Tuesday evening, it looks like most of the storms should remain below severe limits in Minnesota today.

Look for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to ride north along the front today. The storms may contain small hail at times, along with lightning and downpours. Thankfully, severe weather parameters are much lower today across Minnesota.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

SPC paints the severe weather risk area mostly south of Minnesota today, as a wave of low pressure spins in the central Midwest.

Temperatures should also be cooler than Tuesday under more clouds and scattered showers. Look for highs generally in the 70s.

NWS storm survey teams in St. Michael today:

The Twin Cities NWS has teams in the field today near St. Michael to asses Tuesday evening's (likely) tornado damage. Here's the wording from NWS.

...NWS Storm Damage Survey to be Conducted Today...

An NWS storm survey team will review the damage today likely associated with a tornado near the St. Michael area in far eastern Wright County on Tuesday evening. It is yet to be determined if other areas associated with this storm into southeastern Sherburne and far western Anoka Counties need to also be surveyed. In addition, other supercell thunderstorms which had strong rotation and had reports of wall and funnel clouds may also need to be assessed upon further review and coordination with emergency officials on Wednesday.

Ingredients came together:

All the severe weather ingredients came together last night for a few critical hours in and close to the Twin Cities. A powerful warm front surged north with plenty of heat and temperatures in the 90s south of the front. Dew points surged into the low 70s in the Twin Cites just as storms developed Tuesday evening, adding fuel to the storms.

Twin Cities NWS explains the set up Tuesday evening.

"A severe weather event with primarily large hail unfolded across central and eastern Minnesota on Tuesday evening. Warmth and moisture to the highest levels observed so far in the Twin Cities during 2011, surged northward ahead of an approaching surface low pressure (Figure 1). Afternoon temperatures reached the upper 70s to lower to mid 90s across much of the area.

The deep instability, including well above the freezing level in the atmosphere, led to much of the hail being golf ball size or larger. This was even the case at the NWS Forecast Office in Chanhassen (see below), where hail just over two inches in diameter occurred at the edge of a storm core. Atmospheric wind shear was supportive for supercells. Turning wind direction in the low-levels (Figure 3) further offered tornado potential in some storms. This was realized within a corridor immediately ahead of the focusing feature: a cold front/dry-line. Indeed there were multiple storms that developed with rotating wall clouds and/or funnels along this boundary, with at least one of these likely having produced a tornado near St. Michael."

"Hailers"

The atmosphere was ripe for producing big hail Tuesday night. Updrafts around 100 mph were likely with the storms, and temperatures as cold as -30C supported large hail growth high in the storms last night.

Twin Cities NWS upper air sounding last night shows large hail potential.

NWS hail tracker show where large hail fell last night.

Hail from Twin Cities NWS office that fell in Chanhassen.

A slew of warnings:

The warnings came fast and furious Tuesday evening.

Twin Cities NWS warnings issued Tuesday evening.

Welcome to severe weather 2011. We got off pretty lucky Tuesday night. We came very close to an "urban tornado" last night in Hennepin County.

If the storms in the metro had a little more rotation, we could have had a tornado that tracked from Eden Prairie through Edina, right over Lake Calhoun through downtown Minneapolis toward a packed Target Field.

Though we got plenty of large hail and funnel clouds, we were fortunate to dodge the tornado bullet in the metro.

PH

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First tornado outbreak of 2011 strikes Minnesota

Posted at 9:54 PM on May 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

We just dodged a big tornado bullet in the Twin Cities metro Tuesday evening, but other areas are not so lucky.

The season's first big severe weather outbreak produced our first tornadoes of the year in Minnesota and hail as large as tennis balls. It may not have been a "super outbreak" but it was enough to produce the first tornado watches, warnings and touchdowns of the year in Minnesota.

Initial reports indicate that the first tornado of the year touched down in St. Michael at around 7:58pm Tuesday evening. Trained spotters reported debris and roof damage is reported to at least one home.

Radars lit up with "discrete tornadic supercells" Tuesday evening.

Tornadic supercells swilrling north of the metro late Tuesday evening. Note the hook shaped storm near Milaca, and the purple triangle indicating a "tornado vortex signature."

Hail as large as tennis balls pounded St. Louis Park near Louisiana and I-394. Numerous reports of golf ball and egg sized hail pelted the metro from Chanhassen through Eden Prairie and Edina right into downtown Minneapolis. Hail of this size can blow out windshields and dent cars. We will no doubt have roof and auto damage reports from hail in the metro from Tuesday night's storms.

2" diameter hail from NWS in Chanhassen!

The storms that moved through Minneapolis & Target Field were hailers and showed strong rotation. Rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds were sighted. Had the storms been just slightly better organized, there would have been tornado touchdowns in Minneapolis sand the heart of the Twin Cities Tuesday night.

We got very, very lucky.

Here are some select severe storm reports from the wild weather night Tuesday evening. A more complete list from the Twin Cities NWS here.

MPX: Milaca [Mille Lacs Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 09:15 PM CDT -- standing water on roads causing vehicles to hydro plane.

MPX: 2 E Pease [Mille Lacs Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of egg size (M2.00 INCH) at 09:15 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 W St Michael [Wright Co, MN] amateur radio reports TORNADO at 07:58 PM CDT -- time estimated. roof of a home damaged on 42nd st ne.

MPX: St Louis Park [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of tennis ball size (M2.50 INCH) at 08:30 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 Ene Eden Prairie [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 08:03 PM CDT --

MPX: St Francis [Anoka Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 09:00 PM CDT --

MPX: 5 Wsw Minneapolis [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 08:28 PM CDT --

MPX: Milaca [Mille Lacs Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 08:58 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 Nw Minneapolis [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of egg size (M2.00 INCH) at 08:39 PM CDT --

MPX: Minneapolis [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 08:50 PM CDT -- target field

MPX: Golden Valley [Hennepin Co, MN] public reports HAIL of tennis ball size (M2.50 INCH) at 08:28 PM CDT -- at intersection of 394 and louisiana ave.

MPX: Hopkins [Hennepin Co, MN] amateur radio reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 08:30 PM CDT -- highway 169 and excelsior looking north moving northeast

MPX: 1 Ssw Eden Prairie [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 08:05 PM CDT --

MPX: Minneapolis [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 08:29 PM CDT -- reported at corner of franklin and lyndale.

MPX: Eden Prairie [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 08:13 PM CDT --

MPX expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Scott [MN]

MPX: Elk River [Sherburne Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 08:24 PM CDT --

A Break Wednesday?

The first low pressure wave and front moved through Tuesday evening. A second wave may move north late Wednesday night into Thursday, but there are some signs we could catch a break in between.

Here's the SPC convective outlook for Wednesday.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast early Wednesday.

PH

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Why weather played a role in bin Laden raid; Tornado records smashed

Posted at 9:13 AM on May 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Weather history, Winter/spring 2011

We're learning that weather played a critical role in the timing (and potential success) of the dramatic raid that lead to the death of Osama bin Laden.

The mission to capture or kill bin Laden was scrubbed on Saturday night/early Sunday due to bad weather in Pakistan. A front blew through the area with high winds and there were thunderstorms in the area, forcing the military to scrub the mission Saturday night.

Take a look at hourly weather conditions at nearby Islamabad late Saturday night. As you can see wind gusted over 34 mph and thunderstorms were reported nearby for several hours Saturday night.

Hourly observations from Islamabad show why high winds and thunder scrubbed the mission Saturday night. (Click images to enlarge)

Winds also shifted direction rapidly Saturday afternoon in Islamabad.

When you combine wind shear, high winds over 30 mph and thunderstorms in the area you can see why the helicopter landing and mission was scrubbed Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Sunday Night: "Perfect weather" green lights the mission

Sometime around midnight Sunday night/ Monday morning a team of helicopters lifts off from the deserts of eastern Afghanistan and headed for Abbotabad.

The sky is clear and moonless, and the weather conditions are ideal for the pilots to drop in from above, undetected until the sound of rotors fills the sky in Abbotabad at 12:55 am local time.

Not only are skies clear, the air is calm with no wind at ground level. Haze is reported at nearby Islamabad with visibility reported at 2.5 miles. This may have been a critically beneficial factor in favor of U.S. Special Forces that night.

Hourly observation from Islamabad, Pakistan within one hour of the raid.

Visibility of just 2.5 miles meant the helicopters were invisible to the naked eye above 12,000 feet as they flew in, but visibility was good enough for the pilots to have clear sight of the compound as they dropped out of the sky from above to land in nearly perfect weather conditions.

The timing of the raid was also likely chosen by the phase of the new moon on May 3rd. The dark, moonless sky another factor working in stealthy favor of the surprise attack.

Somewhere in the U.S. Government (probably the Air Force) there are some very happy meteorologists today. They likely gave the advice to scrub on Saturday night, and the green light to go on Sunday night based on an excellent weather forecast.

The rest is history.

April 27, 2011: Biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history:

Speaking of history, we've lust lived through the biggest single tornado outbreak on record in the USA.

Tracks of rotating tornadic supercells on April 27th.

NOAA has tallied the numbers, and it turns out last week's tornadic outburst set multiple records

April 25-28, 2011, Tornado Outbreak Statistics

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 362 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274.

Is Minnesota next?

It remains to be seen whether the tornadic trends of Spring 2011 will continue and migrate north. There are still signs of a pattern change starting about May 15th that could lead to more tranquil weather in the Midwest.

In the mean time, enjoy the sun today and most of Wednesday, before our next shot of rain moves in Wednesday night.

Shot of rain Wednesday night into Thursday could be a soaker.

Overall, weather trends are finally looking more like "spring has sprung" in the Upper Midwest.

PH

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Models: Major warm up ahead?

Posted at 9:00 AM on April 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Snow, Winter/spring 2011

My MPR News colleague Cathy Wurzer may have summed up the hopes of winter weary Minnesotans in two words this morning.

When I cautioned that I hate to even "stick my toe in the water" on a long range forecast that may include a major warm up she immediately replied...."Go ahead!"

Let's start with the extended and work backwards today.

Pattern Change: Major warm up in sight?

I hate to even go out on this weather limb, but the overnight GFS run (yes, the same unreliable model of "wanna be" snowstorms in the past few weeks) is boldly hinting that spring is truly right around the corner.

The type of major upper air pattern change that would send spring time (or even early summertime!) temperatures gushing into Minnesota may be about to unfold starting on Mother's Day weekend & beyond.

GFS surface chart pumps warm air on strong southerly flow by May 9th.

There are a couple of reasons I am giving the model output more credibility this time.

1) The upper air pattern change portrayed by the models is sweeping and large scale.

3) We're overdue for a flip in the overall upper air pattern in across North America.

So what's it all mean?

Right now it appears the pattern could begin to change on Mother's Day weekend, with the real warmth gushing into Minnesota starting on Monday May 9th. If the upper air shift verifies, temperatures may surge well into the 70s (and possibly 80?) in southern Minnesota & Wisconsin the week of May 9th.

As the warmer air (& humidity) surge north, we may see an increase in severe storms at times.

It figures for Minnesota. From snow to summer (and mosquitoes?) in a few days? They say everything in life's a trade off...pick your poison I guess.

Right now I'd put the probability of much warmer weather at about 60% for the week of May 9th. But that's a lot higher that I would have given yesterday.

Let's see how the upper air pattern evolves over the next 10 days.

In the meantime...

There are a lot of disgruntled Minnesotans these days. We've long since lost our sense of humor for cold, gray snowy days, especially in late April. I'm not hearing the "bring it on" bravado anymore. And I'm really starting to see that some are seriously affected by SAD, well into April.

All I can say is hang in there...things (the weather) really will change for the better!

Snowy start up north:

Take a look at the map below. Yep, that's snow up north.

It has been snowing in Duluth, Ely and the Iron Range cities this morning.

It's really piling up in northwest Wisconsin.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE PRELIMINARY SNOW REPORTS FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS
AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AROUND THE NORTHLAND. THESE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
----------------------- -- --------- -------
9.00 2NW MELLEN WI ASHLAND 0730 AM
6.50 MAPLE WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
5.50 CORNUCOPIA WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
4.30 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0600 AM
4.00 POPLAR WI DOUGLAS 0522 AM
3.80 5 S HERBSTER WI BAYFIELD 0600 AM
3.00 CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0720 AM
3.00 GLIDDEN WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
3.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
2.50 SAGINAW MN ST. LOUIS 0730 AM
2.50 10 S SUPERIOR WI DOUGLAS 0700 AM
1.60 4 W WASHBURN WI BAYFIELD 0700 AM
1.50 TOFTE MN COOK 0725 AM
1.50 BUTTERNUT WI ASHLAND 0700 AM
1.50 3 NW CLOQUET MN CARLTON 0600 AM
1.30 GILE WI IRON 0700 AM
1.00 2 SE ESKO MN CARLTON 0630 AM
0.80 SILVER BAY MN LAKE 0700 AM

Pretty "sick" for late April, even up north. 'Nuff said.

Play ball tonight?

I would not want to be on the Twins management team today.

This will be one of those days when no matter what decision you make, somebody's going to be unhappy.

All the major models (GFS, NAM, RUC etc.) indicate a narrow "wrap around" precip band will slide south into the eastern half of Minnesota by 7pm this evening. They also paint a temperature profile right near freezing aloft that should bring borderline rain/snow showers into the metro.

We may be only talking about a few hundredths of an inch of precip (compared to Tuesday's 1.5" deluge), but it may be enough to keep the field wet and make for some interesting visuals at TF if snowflakes are coming down as temps fall back into the upper 30s tonight.

Will conditions be "playable?" Maybe. Will it be cold, wet and miserable? Absolutely.

Interesting call. They do have those heaters in the dugout and around Target Field. Where can I buy some "hot chocolate futures" at TF?

Anyone remember those ancient Vikings games with snow coming down on the "frozen tundra?"

Severe nightmare continues:

Another day, another 55 torndoes. That's the tally yesterday from SPC.

That puts April's preliminary tornado tally at a stunning 656 twisters.

Severe weather stretched along a cold front from Texas all the way to New York last night.

Storms continue to rumble today across the southeast with more "high risk" areas today. It just won't end. Look for more tornadoes (another 30 to 50?) again today.

Here's hoping I can write some better weather news tomorrow...let's see if the notion of a big pattern change to spring is still in the cards.

Hang in there!

PH

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Super Soaker: 1" to 2"+ rain, snow? Tornadoes swarm south

Posted at 9:22 AM on April 26, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Update 9:45 am:

1.22" rainfall (and counting) at the Huttner Weather lab in the west metro as of 9:45am.

***Orignal post 9:02am***

Talk about April showers...on steroids.

A major Midwest storm is wringing out steady moderate to heavy rainfall in Minnesota & western Wisconsin today.

The storm is producing some impressive rainfall totals. Rains have already topped 1 inch in southeast Minnesota, and will likely top 2"+ in some areas by early Wednesday.

To the south, another severe weather outbreak has left at least 7 dead in Arkansas overnight. Preliminary SPC reports indicate as many as 38 tornadoes swept across Texas, Arkansas & Tennessee Monday & Monday night.

The same area remains under a moderate to high risk for severe weather and tornadoes today according the latest convective outlook from SPC.

Here's the alarming verbiage form SPC today.

"The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak today and/or tonight. Details below."

The culprit:

A powerful spring storm is responsible for both our soggy Tuesday and the deadly severe outbreak in the Southern Plains.

The surface low is winding up in eastern Iowa this morning, and will stall over Wisconsin through tomorrow.

Potent surface low in eastern Iowa spreads rain north.
(Click all images to enlarge)

The slow motion storm will mean rain (and some snow) will linger over the Upper Midwest, with another day of severe weather along the trailing cold front in the south.

Soaking rains:

Rainfall totals are already impressive. Over an inch has fallen near Rochester, with a healthy .95" in the weather lab Deephaven rain gauge as of 8:20 am.

Here are some other rainfall totals as of 7 am this morning.

This NWS storm total rainfall estimate map may end up on the conservative side.

Wind too!

A strong steady wind is howling today as the storm winds up and wraps into Minnesota. Winds are gusting to over 30 mph in some areas.

Radar with wind gusts overlay.

Snow mixes in tonight & Wednesday?

It does appear the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be just cold enough to mix in some wet snowflakes late tonight and early Wednesday. The best chance for accumulating snow will be north & east of the metro. There could be a few inches of slush early Wednesday morning in Rice Lake, Hayward & Spooner up toward the Brule River.

Any snow that does mix in in the metro will not stick with temps above freezing.

Severe April 2011: All time USA tornado record?

The swarm of tornado outbreaks this month is simply freakish, off the charts crazy.

Remember these are preliminary numbers, but check out these stunning numbers so far in April from SPC.

559 (and counting daily) - Preliminary USA tornado count so far in April 2011.

267 - Previous April tornado record set in 1974 (Year of the "Super Outbreak.")

543 - All time monthly USA tornado record set in May 2003.

39 - tornado fatalities so far this month. (3 year running April average is 6.)

12 - "Killer tornadoes" so far this month. (Annual average is 22.)

38 - Additional tornado reports Monday.

Even with the expected "downward adjustment" from preliminary to final tornado numbers in April, it seems clear we have already smashed the previous April record of 267 tornadoes from the "Super Outbreak" year of 1974.

As we add more tornaodes today, it's possible we may make a run at the all time monthly record of 543 set in May 2003 when the final numbers are counted.

It is clear that this April will be one for the (tornado) record books.

The Big Question: Why?

There is consensus that tornadoes increase in the central plains in La Nina years like 2011.

Here's a post from the excellent 'Capital Weather Gang" blog.

"A study that examined the relationship between sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and the number of tornadoes in the U.S. found a weak correlation between La Nina and a greater number of tornadoes. Another study found tornadoes during La Niña years had longer than average track lengths, more violent tornadoes, and a good probability of having an outbreak of 40 or more tornadoes. Brooks points out that both the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak in 1965 and the Super Outbreak in 1974 occurred during La Nina years."

There is also evidence that though overall annual tornado numbers have increased dramatically since the 1950s. Some (much?) of that increase is due to increased and more accurate reporting of tornadoes.

Today's Doppler networks, high resolutions satellite, TV weather wars and caravans of nomadic storm chasers roaming the plains with digital video cameras and cell phones leave very few tornadoes undetected.

What we don't know is why some years like this year are so off the charts, out of control tornado spawning beasts.

I've had the pleasure if sharing interviews and dinner with folks like Greg Carbin at SPC and Howie Bluestein who are featured in the NY Times piece that came out Monday. It is because of dedicated people like Greg & Howie (and thousands of others) that we have success stories like Friday's EF-4 (possible EF-5?) tornado in St. Louis where NWS warnings gave a 22 minute lead time and nobody was seriously hurt or killed.

We did not get so lucky last night in Arkansas, where violent tornadoes and flash flood claimed multiple lives.

Here in Minnesota we can take away a couple of things. Last year's all time Minnesota tornado record (final tally of 113?) may not have been a freak occurrence. Our overall tornado numbers have nearly doubled since the 1950s from around 26 per year to nearly 50.

Also, severe weather season will move north over the next 4-6 weeks. Now is the time to be ready, so that if the St. Louis & Arkansas type tornadoes move north you'll be prepared.

PH

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More snow likely, models vary; long track tornadoes

Posted at 10:12 AM on April 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 10:20am:

Morning 12Z NAM model run comes in with about 4" to 5" snowfall for metro Tuesday night.

Stay tuned....

Winter weather has overstayed its welcome this year, and it seems we're due for one more shot before spring finally takes hold.

The weather maps continue to look more like March this week. Another potent late winter storm (in springtime!) is heading for the upper Midwest Tuesday. There are still major model differences with this system, and another two "major" forecast model runs this morning and tonight may (hopefully) clarify the final outcome.

Winter storm watches have been posted for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Twin Cities NWS Weather Story previews potential storm.

Based on what we know now, here's the rundown on snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The system:

Low pressure will track from Missouri to south of Chicago Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There are still model differences in the track, with the European model taking the system furthest south.

Precip timing & type:

A mixed bag of rain & snow should develop Tuesday in Iowa & the I-90 corridor early, and then slide north toward the Twin Cities during the afternoon.

GFS model sets up heavy precip band in SE Minnesota late Tuesday.

Precip will likely be mixed rain & snow Tuesday, changing to all snow Tuesday evening. Snowfall rates could increase and be heavy at times Tuesday night. Snow should gradually end Wednesday morning.

Snowfal Totals:

It does appear the system has the potential to produce 6"+ in the heaviest snow band, which most likely will set up south of the metro from Mankato to Albert Lea northeast to Eau Claire. Right now, cities & towns with the best chance for 6"+ appear to be Waseca, Owatonna, Rochester, Northfield, Red Wing & Winona.

NAM model: Heavy snow band south of metro.

Metro totals?

At this time the metro appears to be north of the heaviest snow band.

With major model differences in the storm track, I'm not ready to sign off on big accumulations for the Twin Cities just yet. We still have more than 24 hours and two major model runs before the snow flies. But it does appear that we will see some accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...inches to be determined tonight or early Tuesday morning.

A "plowable" event for the metro? A big maybe.

Forecast could change:

File this forecast under "changeable."

There is still a lot that could go wrong with the models this time of year...and especially this year. Model performance (especially the GFS) has been downright poor with the last few "storm" systems. Early snowfall forecasts have been all over the place again with this system...from over a foot of snow down to an inch.

Because of this I am going to wait a little longer than usual to issue a specific snowfall forecast for the metro. Suffice to say you should plan for some snow from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations will most likely favor grassy areas again. With warm pavement and air temps near or above freezing, there will need to be heavy snowfall rates for a longer period of time to see significant accumulations on roads...but that could happen Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

There will be two major model updates in the next 24 hours beofre precip moves in.

Stay tuned...

Record southern tornado outbreak?

There's no doubt that the weekend tornado outbreak will go down as one of the biggest in U.S. history. The only question seems to be whether or not we will surpass the incredible number of 148 tornadoes in a 24 hour period form the April 3-4, 1974 "Super Outbreak."

248 tornadoes sweep the south in 3 days. (Map by Victor Gensini)

Here are some staggering numbers so far from last weekend's mega tornado outbreak.

248 - total number of preliminary tornado reports from Thursday-Saturday.

148 - Number of tornadoes in a 24 hour period in the 1974 "Super Outbreak."

45 - number of fatalities reported so far

63 miles - path length of Raleigh, NC tornado

65 miles - path length of the Fayetteville, NC tornado

3 miles - maximum path width of the Raleigh, NC tornado!

The numbers are staggering but don't even begin to tell the whole story. The size and intensity of these monster tornadoes over the weekend is frightening, even to trained meteroloigsts. The Raleigh tornado was 3 miles wide at the base! The storm chasers call these huge, violent tornadoes "wedges"...because they are so big they don't even look like tornadoes from a distance. You just see this big V-shaped cloud intersecting the ground.

Check out this remarkable time lapse video as the "rain wrapped" tornado moves into Raleigh, NC.

These big, violent EF3+ wedge tornadoes appear to have caused many of the tornado deaths this past weekend, especially in North Carolina.

Next severe outbreak Tuesday?

This overactive pattern looks like it will produce another severe weather outbreak Tuesday in the central plains on the southern end of our "winter storm."

SPC has already placed a moderate risk over the Ohio Valley.

Stay tuned...

PH

Saturday Winterlude; Southern severe outbreaks

Posted at 7:00 PM on April 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

It's mid-April in Minnesota, and the natives are getting a little restless.

Folks around these parts are more than a little ready for some extended spring weather.

It's already the 5th snowiest winter (84.7" and counting) on record, and we'll likely move into 4th place (84.9") by the time you wake up Saturday morning.

Many of us will wince at the slushy & snowy coating Saturday morning. Powerful April sun will come out again Saturday, and most of the white stuff will do a rapid disappearing act.

Blustery wintery winds will gradually ease late Saturday. And Sunday will feel nicer by comparison...with less wind, some sun and temps pushing the low 50s Sunday afternoon.

Overall, the cooler than average weather pattern looks to continue for a while. Next week looks downright soggy as April showers take over. A series of wet weather systems will track into the Upper Midwest next week.

The first shot of rain (snow north?) comes Monday...with a better chance for heavier rain moving in Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry & sunny for now, but new waves of rain may ride in Thursday & Friday of next week.

It appears to this forecaster that rainfall totals could easily exceed 1" to 2+" in the next week in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

This will keep rivers running high.

Want some good news? It looks like next weekend could be sunnier and drier at this point.

Pattern change ahead?

In the longer range, there may be a shift to a drier and much warmer weather pattern in 2 weeks, beginning on or about Friday April 29th.

A shift in the upper air pattern may funnel much warmer air into the Upper Midwest, and it's possible we could see an extended run of at least 70s (maybe 80?) by the first weekend in May.

Stay tuned...

Southern severe outbreaks:

It's been a bad run of severe weather in the south this week.

Thursday's Oklahoma tornado outbreak featured 16 twister reports.

Friday's numbers are still pouring in, but over 60 tornadoes have been reported in Mississippi and Alabama as of Friday evening.

There are reports of extensive damage and injuries near Clinton, Mississippi.

So far in 2011, about 350 tornadoes have been reported in the USA by SPC. That's about 145 ahead of the pace for 2010.

Last Sunday's tornado outbreak in Wisconsin was the biggest April outbreak on record in Wisconsin.

Multiple tornadoes also ravaged Iowa last Saturday evening.

It remains to be seen whether or not Minnesota will see a repeat of our record 113 tornadoes from 2010. La Nina years can be active tornado years. One thing that seems certain is that it's likely the severe weather pattern will shift north over the next 6-8 weeks, and that Minnesota will probably see our share of severe weather events.

This is severe weather awareness week in Minnesota. Take a few minutes to brush up on your severe weather plan, and to tune up the weather radio.

As always...stay tuned.

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Metro all clear: PDS Tornado Watch SE MN & WI

Posted at 3:00 PM on April 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 3:30pm:

Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch issued until 11pm for much of Wisconsin & southeast Minnesota.

Cities included in the watch are Rochester, Eau Claire, Menomonie, & La Crosse.

-Latest La Crosse radar loop

This is a dangerous situation! A major tornado outbreak is possible/likely in Wisconsin through tonight.

-SPC
-La Corsse NWS
-Twin Cities NWS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA. AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL. THERE IS
THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
TORNADOES.

PH

Update 3pm:

The threat for severe weather has shifted east today. The storms just took too long to develop, and now a cold front has pushed through the metro and runs from near Rochester to Hudson, WI.

Temps dropped 15 degrees at the Weather Lab in Deephaven from 74 to 59 between 1:30pm & 3pm Sunday.

The atmosphere has stabilized over the metro, but storms may still develop in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin...with the most favored area along and east of a line from Rochester to Eau Claire.

SPC has shifted the risk area east accordingly.

A band of showers and a few rumbles of thunder behind the front may still move through tonight into early Monday. Expect windy & colder conditions Monday, with a return to nice weather and highs in the 60s for Tuesday.

PH

Update 2:30pm:

Prime area for development appears to be from near Albert Lea to Stillwater in the next hour. See latest Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion text below...

GOES 1km visible satellite & temps overlay shows best development potential in SE MN & Western WI.

PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
218 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE...

CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 330
PM...WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AFTER...SOME OF WHICH IS
PROBABLE TO BE TORNADIC IN THE REGION. THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN
OUR CWA IS WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT REACHING
EAST OF THERE AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DUE SOUTH...DRAPED ABOUT
30 MILES WEST OF I-35 /AND SEEN ON THE KMPX RADAR/. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALL DAY ON THE COLD FRONT
AND IS APPROACHING MASON CITY. THIS IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST AS
IT IS WHERE THE INHIBITION HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED...IN FACT THERE
IS NOW NONE ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN IA ON THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS. JUST AHEAD OF THIS AREA IS POOLED 64-66 SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST MN IS ALSO AT THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
/90-100 KT AT 500MB PER PROFILERS AND SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/
ALLOWING FOR DEEPER ASCENT AND SHEAR...ALONG WITH FURTHER MID-
LEVEL COOLING. THE ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY DRY ADIABATIC
PER THE 18Z MPX SOUNDING. SO THIS INDICATES THAT DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE RAPID ONCE THE SURFACE WARMTH AND MOISTURE CAN CONNECT
IN THE VERTICAL WITH SUCH LAPSE RATES. THE CURRENT HRRR AND VSREF
MODELS INDICATE THAT AROUND 330 PM IS THE FAVORED DEVELOPMENT
TIME...WITH THE AREA OF ALBERT LEA TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY
MOST LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE TO THE NORTHEAST RAPIDLY. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 60 TO 70 KTS AND THE FRONTAL
ORIENTATION FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE SPLITS. THE
0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 20 KTS RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CWA WARM
SECTOR...AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THE RUC TO 25-30 KTS OVER
THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. WITH OTHER PARAMETERS IN PLACE
OVER THAT AREA BETWEEN 3:30PM-6PM AND THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
MOVING THAT WAY...THAT LOCATION IS THE MOST FAVORED FOR TORNADOES
IN THE FORECAST AREA. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE RUNS OF THE NMM AND HRRR
HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING WHAT APPEAR TO BE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
NEAR LADYSMITH TO EAU CLAIRE IN THAT TIME. AS FOR OTHER
THREATS...THEY PRETTY MUCH ALL ARE IN PLAY AS DCAPE VALUES ARE
QUITE LARGE...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ABOVE -20C FOR
LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADAPTED A HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE
FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND MENTIONED THE CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES IN THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...GIVEN IT IS
THE FIRST EVENT OF THE YEAR...ANOMALOUSLY EARLY...AND THAT THERE
ARE SOME PARAMETERS IN LINE FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN THAT AREA. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8 PM...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 6
PM.

Update 1:35pm:

Tornado watch likely by 2pm according to SPC mesoscale discussion!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MN...NERN IA...NWRN IL AND MUCH OF WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101830Z - 102030Z

OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
FROM ERN MN THROUGH NERN IA...THEN SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WI
AND EXTREME NWRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IN E-CNTRL MN SSWWD THROUGH SRN MN...NWRN IA INTO SERN NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN E-CNTRL MN THROUGH NRN WI. THE LOW
WILL DEVELOP EWD TO NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 21Z. NEWD ADVECTION OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG A STRONG SSWLY LLJ BENEATH EML PLUME /8.5
C/KM LAPSE RATES/ AND DIABATIC WARMING IS RESULTING IN NEWD
DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
CAPPED BY THE WARM EML AS EVIDENCED BY 18Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING.

UPPER JET IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. RAPID ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY OBSERVED FROM NERN IA THROUGH SWRN WI IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF NEWD EXPANDING ZONE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION. THIS FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A DEEPER ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN MN INTO NERN IA. STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODES FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGEST HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NRN WI WHERE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO SLY EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EXCEEDING 250 M2/S2. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2011

It looks like storms may develop rapidly this afternoon near the east metro and in southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. There is a moderate risk for severe weather and possibly some tornadoes.

Storm development could be rapid. No watches yet...but they could happen soon.

There is a moderate risk for severe storms from the east metro east into Wisconsin through tonight according to SPC.

SPC: Moderate risk from metro east.

Greatest tornado threat includes east metro & much of Wisconsin.

Large hail likely with storms.

Stay tuned today as the severe weather threat unfolds.

-Twin Cities NWS
PH

Scattered metro storms; Major damage in Iowa

Posted at 11:12 PM on April 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 11:00PM:

Tornado watch #119 until 5am south:

A tornado watch (#119) is in effect until 5 am for northern Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, and parts of southwest Wisconsin.

Scattered metro storms overnight:

Expect scattered storms moving through the metro from SW to NE at around 35 mph overnight. Storms are producing lightning, thunder, downpours, gusty winds to 60 mph and hail is possible up to 1" in diameter.

MPX: New London [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 10:31 PM CDT --

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

A severe thunderstorm watch continues until 3am and includes the metro.

Bigger storms south:

While a severe storm is possible in the metro, the storms are running into cooler, slightly more stable air as they approach the metro.This may weaken storms somewhat in the Twin Cities area.

To the south, conditions remain favorable for big, tornadic supercells, including southwest Minnesota near Tyler,Tracy & Edgerton.

Iowa: Night of the tornado:

Multiple tornadic supercells are visible on doppler radar late Saturday evening in northern Iowa. The threat may spill into southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor overnight.

-Latest La Crosse radar loop

Multpile rotating tornadic supercells in northern Iowa!

There are reports of tornadoes in Iowa Saturday evening, and major damage is reported.

DMX continues Tornado Warning for Humboldt, Kossuth [IA] till 11:45 PM CDT ...AT 1112 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DMX: 1 Ne Pocahontas [Pocahontas Co, IA] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 10:52 PM CDT -- power surges

DMX: Early [Sac Co, IA] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 10:46 PM CDT -- multiple roofs ripped off homes...extensive house damage...and large trees down

DMX: 5 Ene Nemaha [Sac Co, IA] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:30 PM CDT -- power lines down...house damaged. gas leaking. likely tornado damage.

Pocahontas [IA] till 10:30 PM CDT ...AT 1004 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POCAHONTAS...OR 24 MILES EAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DMX: Varina [Pocahontas Co, IA] storm chaser reports TORNADO at 09:55 PM CDT -- location approximate. near varina toward the pocahontas/buena vista county line.

DMX: 5 Nw Pomeroy [Pocahontas Co, IA] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 09:03 PM CDT -- large tornado on the ground. damage unknown.

DMX: 2 N Fonda [Pocahontas Co, IA] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 09:52 PM CDT --

DMX issues Tornado Warning for Palo Alto, Pocahontas [IA] till 10:30 PM CDT ...* AT 951 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBERT CITY...OR 18 MILES EAST OF STORM LAKE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DMX: Nemaha [Sac Co, IA] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:05 PM CDT -- major damage reported in nemaha...possibly from tornado. time approximate.

DMX: Early [Sac Co, IA] fire dept/rescue reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:48 PM CDT -- major damage to buildings in town. commercial and residential. large trees down. time estimated. no injuries reported in early as of yet.

DMX continues Tornado Warning for Pocahontas [IA] till 10:00 PM CDT ...AT 943 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF NEWELL...OR 19 MILES EAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

Update 9:00pm:

Storms with hail moving northeast.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
859 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
REDWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 857 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF REVERE...OR ABOUT 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
REDWOOD FALLS...
LUCAN...
WABASSO...
SEAFORTH...
NORTH REDWOOD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

Update 8:30pm:

Line of T-Storms developing and moving NE toward Mankato, New Ulm and the Twin Cities. Storms possible in the Twin Cities anytime between 9:30pm through midnight.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

Primary threats appear to be large hail up to 1" to 2" diameter, and localized wind damage.

Expect lighting to increase in the southwest sky, and look for heavy downpours, possible hail and booming thunder after about 10pm tonight.

PH

Update 7:45pm:

Severe T-Storm Watch for southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities until 3am.

from SPC Watch text...

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL... ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE... WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 155
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Update 7:25pm:

Here's the latest mesoscale discussion from SPC. Severe T-Storm Watch likely to be issued soon for southern Minnesota.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092357Z - 100100Z

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS SERN SD AND SRN MN
AS LLJ IMPINGES ON WARM FRONT. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
PROCESS WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FORCING MOISTURE ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION
SUCH THAT LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS REGION SOON.

Update 6:45pm:

Tornado watch issued for much of northwest Iowa until 1am.

Update 3:50pm:

Check out the varbiage in the latest Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion regarding the increasing tornado threat for southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities tonight, and especially Sunday early to mid afternoon.

"OVERNIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS AND SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY POSES SEVERAL PROBLEMS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FIRST...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
EASILY COVER THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES PROGGED NEAR 16 DEG C IN THESE AREAS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 80-85 DEGREES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH.

THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE SEVERE STORMS REDEVELOPING. BELIEVE THINGS MAY DEVELOP SOONER THAN LATER ON SUNDAY. MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE SEEN TODAY WAS THE NOSE OF A 90-100 KNOT JET STREAK AT H5 REACHING SOUTHERN MN AT 18Z AND POKING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 11/00Z. 850-500MB CROSSOVER WINDS ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT MID DAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI. SO ONCE AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD RISE QUICKLY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SFC-3KM CAPE REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 J/KG BY 21Z ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE OUR FOCUS AREA FOR TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON."

PH

Update 3:20 pm

Storms dropping some hail as expected moving through western Wisconsin.

MPX: 2 E Ellsworth [Pierce Co, WI] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 02:58 PM CDT -- pea to penny size hail fell for several minutes...minor hail accumulation was also observed.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

WIZ024-025-092030-
DUNN-PIERCE-
255 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER DUNN AND PIERCE COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELLSWORTH...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BELDENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ELLSWORTH.
SPRING VALLEY.
ELMWOOD.
MENOMONIE.

No new deveopment so far behind first storm cluster as it moves away rapidly NE through Wisconsin.

There are a few storms starting to pop near warm front from Sioux Falls to near Sioux City Iowa. We may get a break in activity until a possible MCS forms later tonight and moves northeast into southern Minnesota. The best chance for any severe storms still appears to be between 10pm and 6am Sunday morning.

Stay tuned...

PH

***Original post 2:00 pm***

SPC has upgraded severe risk to "moderate" today & tonight from the metro south. Keep an eye out for possible watches & warnings, especially tonight.

A few pop up storms in SE metro & western Wisconsin producing small hail and some gusty winds. Nothing severe so far...

Doppler detects hail to .50" in SE metro & western Wisconsin as storms zip rapidly NE. (Click to enlarge)

MPX: Northfield [Rice Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 01:58 PM CDT -- northfield ambulance reported pea to dime size hail was beginning to cover the ground.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

MNZ063-070-077-078-WIZ023-024-091930-
DAKOTA-GOODHUE-PIERCE-RICE-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
145 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER DAKOTA...GOODHUE...
PIERCE...RICE...ST. CROIX AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
CDT...

AT 144 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF DUNDAS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BRIDGEWATER.
NORTHFIELD.
CASTLE ROCK.
STANTON.
CANNON FALLS.
NEW TRIER.

-SPC here
-Twin Cities NWS here
-Twin Cities radar loop here

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Weekend severe threat; Red River update

Posted at 5:41 PM on April 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Severe weather, Weekend

It will look, feel and possibly sound like spring this weekend in Minnesota!

A western storm will track east through Minnesota this weekend. As it approaches, we'll see a variety of weather conditions from sun, to clouds to rain & thunder to potentially severe weather.

Potentially stormy weekend weather set up. (Click all images to enlarge)

Let's break down the weekend forecast.

Friday Night: Dry high pressure means a beautiful, cool, dry Friday night. Look for increasing clouds from the south, with mainly clear skies north & east. Temps will fall through the 50s Friday evening with lows in the mid 40s south and frosty 30s north. Light SE winds.

GOES 1km visible satellite with dew point contours (isodrosotherms)

Weather tip: Look for the waxing "Maple Sap Moon" peeking through a few clouds in the western sky this evening. The moon will set just after midnight, at 12:18am Saturday morning.

Saturday: A warm front will push north through Iowa Saturday toward Minnesota. Ahead of the front, clouds, fog & drizzle may increase. Look for a mix of clouds, and some filtered sun peeking through at times Saturday.

If we get enough sun temps may push 70 in southern Minnesota. If not, temps will still climb into the 60s. Chance for a scattered shower or T-Storm later. SE winds between 7-12 mph.

Weather/phenology tip: Look for new shoots emerging form the landscape, including tulips, daffodils and crocus.

Saturday night: This is where things may get a little "interesting."

As the warm front pushes north, a surge of moisture and an increasing low level jet stream around 5k feet may trigger scattered showers & T-Storms. The best chance of a storm may come after midnight. There is a slight risk for a few severe storms according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Primary storm threats appear to be hail and high winds.

Temps should be steady in the lower 60s.

Weather tip: Look for lightning in the sky late Saturday night. Storms will be moving toward the north/northeast.

Sunday & Sunday night: Depending on which model solution wins out, Sunday may end up feeling like early summer with warm and more humid air pushing into the southern parts of Minnesota.

If the low moves far enough north & west, the "warn sector" may push as far north as the Twin Cities Sunday PM. That could mean sun will boost temps into the (upper?) 70s in the metro... and temps may push 80 degrees in Rochester & SE MN and western Wisconsin!

Increased humidity will also jump into the weather equation for the first time this year...and dew points could surge into the 60s! Yes, we may go from snow to warm & humid weather in just two weeks.

With the low nearby, the warm surge and increased humidity the chances for thunderstorms will increase Sunday. The best chances appear to be afternoon & evening. There is an increasing risk for severe storms packing damaging winds and large hail Sunday PM & evening.

Elevated "moderate risk" includes the Twin Cities Sunday.

With temps near 80, high humidity and plenty of spin or "shear" in the atmosphere Sunday, there is also a risk for a few of the storms to produce tornadoes.

Bottom line & weather tip: Be prepared for the risk of severe storms to bust out Sunday, especially PM & evening. This is the time to dig out the NOAA weather radio & brush up on your severe weather safety plan. We may get rocked by some loud thunder & severe storms Sunday.

We expect to have extra weather coverage on MPR News stations Sunday PM & evening if severe storms fire off.

-Storm Predition Center
-Twin Cities NWS

Red River Update:

As southern Minnesota rivers reach a second crest this weekend, the focus shifts north to the big brawling Red which is in major flood stage this weekend.

The forecast for the Red River remains pretty much status quo at this point.

Weekend rains may total 1" in the Red River basin, but there are some indications that the delay in runoff may prolong the crest, but not raise the level.

The official forecast from AHPS remains for a crest of 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday at this point.

Here's the verbiage from the Grand Forks NWS.

"HYDROLOGY...

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. OVERLAND
FLOODING PERSISTS AS THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT."

Stay tuned as we watch for changes in the weekend forecast and monitor the severe threat which will increase as we approach Sunday.

PH

Warmest in 5 months! Flood threat eases? Weekend storms?

Posted at 5:00 PM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Winter/spring 2011

Congratulations!

You just enjoyed the first 60 degree temp in nearly 5 months in the metro and southern Minnesota.

60s return. (Click to enlarge)

The last time the mercury hit 60 was on November 10th 2010 with a room temperature 68 degrees at MSP Airport.

The (really) cold season appears to be behind us now, and the overall weather pattern shifts into a spring like mode for the foreseeable future. There will still be some chilly days & nights, but hopefully any real snow threat is gone until fall. Hopefully.

Rain north & south:

High pressure is steering rain showers south of Minnesota into Iowa and Missouri. A few showers are sliding throughnorthern Minnesota where temps are cooler in the 50s.

Rivers easing a bit?

Sunshine, low humidity, and no rain or snow. That's just what the weather doctor ordered for swollen rivers in southern Minnesota.

The latest AHPS forecasts have tweaked some crest forecasts a little lower for this upcoming weekend.

The crest forecast for Mississippi @ St. Paul has been adjusted slightly downward...from 19.2' to 18.8' next Monday.

That would put the "2nd crest" below the 19.01' level of the first crest on 2/29/2011, which may now stand as the 8th highest flood of record on the Mississippi @ St. Paul.

The Red River @ Fargo is still forecast to reach 39.5' feet on Sunday, which would be the 3rd highest flood of record.

A success story?

Some perspective here.

There have been 2 flood related deaths from brave souls that gave their lives fighting the rising waters.

River levels this year are very high including top 5 "floods of record" in some areas. But flood protection is built to withstand these levels in most areas.

A good example is the Red, which crested higher in 2009 without major incident.

Barring a major dike failure or someother unknown event, most communties may be able to handle these flood levels without major incident. Knock on wood... but the "Floods of 2011" seem to be passing without major widespread problems.

If it stays that way... you have to give a lot of credit to a whole range of NWS, State and local employees and offifcals who have laid out and excecuted great flood plans.

People moan about "government" sometimes...you're watching good government at work this flood season saving dollars, property and probably lives.

Weekend forecast trends warmer...storms delayed?

It looks like the western storm that will affect our weekend weather is slowing down. While the overall solution for the weekend remains a bit unclear, there are some emerging weekend weather trends.

-Friday night & Saturday may be dry and warm. It's possible we could see our first 70s on Saturday.

-Any T-Storm threat may hold off until overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Midday Sunday may end up dry...with another chance of storms Sunday night?

-Overall model precip is tredning lighter...from the usually bloated early GFS runs of 1"+ down to (a more reasonable?) .30" to .60" range.

Again...the weather crystal ball is still murky for the weekend. Let's see if Friday's model runs provide any more clarity.

There is still a chance of a severe storm...but I'm growingly optimistic that the biggest threat may be south of Minnesota, where a major severe outbreak is possible Sunday in the central plains.

Overall it looks like a very nice, mild spring-like weekend with May temperature levels and a few showers or a T-Storm thrown in!

Stay tuned...

Weather opportunities abound

Posted at 4:54 PM on February 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: NOAA, Severe weather

There is a bevy of great opportunities for fellow weather geeks to get their fix in the coming weeks.

If you're into weather, or maybe know a neighbor or budding young weather enthusiast who is looking for the chance to spread their "weather wings" a bit, check out the following list of events.

Phenology & Weather Observers Gathering at Wolf Ridge ELC
in Finland, MN March 4-6, 2011

Here's the rundown from the folks at Wolf Ridge.

Join us as we discuss the phenology and weather of the region, how we can observe and record phenology of the local flora and fauna and how to use phenology in our teaching. This will be a great opportunity to meet other phenologists, weather observers, teachers, and interested citizens.

Phenology From Space
Weather Recording
Make your own Forecast
Tools to teach Weather
Snow Rules - North Shore Snow Research
Minnesota Forest Ecology Changes
Sky Warn Training
General Phenology Record Keeping
Phenology as Seen in Birds
Phenology as Seen in Butterflies
How to Use Phenology in Teaching
Photography as a means of Recording Phenology
Sharing Experiences with Each Other

Metro SKYWARN training classes begin February 21st.

If you've always wanted to be a severe weather spotter, here's your chance to get training.

Here's the info from Twin Cities NWS, and from Metro SKYWARN.

15th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop, March 22-23, 2011

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities and the Twin Cities AMS will be hosting the 15th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop. The conference will be held March 22-23, 2011 at the the University of St. Thomas' St. Paul Campus. The conference will run from approximately 8 AM - 5 PM on both days. Details on registration and lodging, along with other conference information, can be found online here.

The conference will be a combination of invited speakers and submitted presentations. There will be a poster session in addition to the oral presentations. Topics will include, but will not be limited to, prediction of severe local storms, operational techniques for severe storm forecasting, storm structure and organization, societal impacts and dissemination of hazardous weather information, and climatological patterns for severe local storms.

2011 Student Volunteer & Student Career Experience Programs

Details here from the Twin Cities NWS.

Applications for Summer Volunteer Positions at the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Chanhassen, MN are being accepted through February 28, 2011. Please click here or on the image to the left for details. If you have additional questions regarding the Summer Volunteer Program at NWS Chanhassen, MN, contact Tom Hultquist.

Applications for the 2011 NWS Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) are being accepted through February 28, 2011. Please click here or on the image to the left for details. If you have additional questions regarding the SCEP program, contact NWS.scep-reply@noaa.gov.

There are plenty of opportunities to get involved and increase you "weather IQ this year!

PH

Minnesota 2010: Top 10 warmest year on record?

Posted at 8:45 AM on November 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather

Welcome to another warm day in November.

This follows a warm of October (+5.3), a warm summer, a snowless March that was 8.9 degrees above average. Add it all up and what do you get? Possibly one of the 10 warmest years on record in Minnesota.

If you look at temperatures so far this year in the Twin Cities, it appears we're on pace for a top 10 warmest year. Not including November, temperatures are running about +3.3 degrees so far in 2010.

Of course, we still have November and December to go in the books. We're off and running in November, a full 6.3 degrees above average so far through the first 8 days, with at least 2 more significantly above average days on the way. That will put us about 7 degrees above average through the first 10 days of the month....but with much cooler air on the way in the next 1-2 weeks.

There is no way to tell what December will bring, but another above average month could put us in the top 10 warmest years on record for Minnesota looking all the way back to 1891. That's 118 years of data.

Here are the top 5 warmest years on record in the metro: The yearly average temperature for the Twin Cities is 45.2 degrees.

1) 1931 50.9 degrees
2) 1987 49.7 degrees
3) 2006 49.3 degrees
4) 1998 48.8 degrees
5) 2005 48.2 degrees

Stay tuned.

Chaotic weather pattern starts Wednesday:

Get ready for some big weather changes starting Wednesday in Minnesota.

A potent upper low and it's surface reflection will wind up and bump east into Minnesota by late Wednesday. The day will be breezy, and there may be a narrow band of thunderstorms late in the day sweeping from southwest to northeast.

There appears to be enough instability to kick off a few severe storms late Wednesday. With the relative amount of spin or "helicity" in the atmosphere high, there is even the rare November potential for an isolated tornado or two. Yes...I said tornado. And yes, I know, it's November.

The SPC has some interesting language in Wednesday's severe weather outlook discussion.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

WHILE WEAK...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A NARROW BROKEN LINE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Pretty remarkable stuff when we should be talking about snow storms in November. But then again. this is the "anything goes" weather year that is 2010!

"Low confidence" forecast:

Forecast models are all over the place when it comes to the late week weather set up. A wave of low pressure sliding up from the south brings a change fo cold rain or snow Friday to areas from the metro south & east. It may evolve into significant snow for parts of Wisconsin Saturday.

A third wave of cold low pressure may bring snow showers to much of Minnesota by Sunday.

Bottom line: It's going to look and feel a lot more like winter around here by the weekend.

Stay tuned!

In the meantime enjoy temps pushing 70 today in southern Minnesota. The record for the Twin Cities today is 70 degrees. We'll probably fall short in the upper 60s, but it should be a good run!

PH

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NWS: Minnesota 2010 tornado record confirmed

Posted at 8:08 AM on November 2, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

We knew it was coming, and today the Twin Cities NWS made it official.

Minnesota set a new record for the highest number of tornadoes this year. Here are the numbers:

104 tornadoes in 2010 (4 EF4, 4EF3, 8 EF2, 30 EF1, 58 EF0)

Previous record: 74 tornadoes in 2001

3 deaths

Wadena tornado: EF4 rating. 10 mile path length. 17 minutes, 20 injuries.

It is quite remarkable (and fortunate) that none of the 104 tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010 touched down in Hennepin, Ramsey or Anoka counties. Thus the most densely populated core of the Twin Cities metro escaped 2010 without a tornado touchdown during the most active tornado year in Minnesota history.

NOAA SPC preliminary 2010 tornado count for Minnesota.

Imagine the devastation today from an outbreak similar to the incredible 1965 Twin Cities outbreak.

According to preliminary SPC reports Texas has posted 105 preliminary tornado reports so far in 2010. IT is almost certain that number will drop (possibly by a third) once final reports are issued at year's end. Thus, barring a major increase in the Texas numbers in the next 60 days, it is likely that Minnesota will lead the nation in observed tornadoes for the first time on record.

Is tornado alley shifting north?

There is no doubt that the epicenter of tornado alley shifted about 500 miles north in 2010.

The bigger question on the mind of many meteorologists and climatologists is whether these numbers signify a trend towards a northward shift in tornado alley. Or is 2010 just a blip in the longer term data.

I took a look at the numbers for tornadoes by decade in Minnesota and Oklahoma. It's not really an apples to apples comparison since Minnesota is slightly larger than Oklahoma, but it does show some interesting (and perhaps valid) trends.

You can see on the graph below that Minnesota's (bottom line) overall tornado numbers have been climbing, and Oklahoma's (top line) numbers have fallen sharply during the past decade.

The two lines crossed for the first time in 2010. Minnesota's 104 tornadoes is likely to exceed Oklahoma's still preliminary number of 73 by a large margin at year's end.

It is alarming to note that the average annual number of tornadoes in Minnesota has nearly doubled from 25.8 to 48.4 in the past 11 years when compared with the longer term averages since 1950!

With the annual average number of tornadoes in Minnesota at 48 per in the past 11 years, and the top two tornado years on record having occurred in the past 10 years, it will be interesting to see if the trend towards increased tornado numbers in Minnesota holds in the coming decade.

If this is the new normal, we may need to start thinking of Minnesota as "tornado alley north."

PH

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Flood warnings along I-90: Heavy rainfall again Thursday

Posted at 11:10 PM on September 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

Update 11:10pm:

Persistent heavy rainfall swamped southern Minnesota with 2" to more than 4" of rain Wednesday night. NWS has issued flood warnings for several counties along and north of the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

Doppler radar shows heavy rain bands in southern Minnesota late Wednesday evening.
(Click for bigger image)

Waves of rainfall will continue to develop and lift north through Thursday. Expect periods of rain, sometimes heavy. There is a slight risk for a few severe storms as well.

This may be a situation where we see some incredible rainfall totals as the slow moving storm pushes north into Minnesota Thursday.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall loop shows 2" to 4" rainfall totals in southern Minnesota.

Some locations will see a month's worth of rainfall in a day or two. The latest indications are that some areas in southern Minnesota could see over 5" to 7"+ rainfall by Friday morning.

Stay tuned for updated warnings here.

PH

(original post 3:25pm)

Forecast: Flood Watch

Get ready for some really big puddles.

A powerful fall like storm system is taking aim for Minnesota. We're on track for a potentially heavy rainfall event in much of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Thursday and into Friday morning.

The lead wave of rainfall is already here, and by the time wave number two rolls through Thursday, some areas may have rain gauges brimming with 2" to 4"+ rainfall totals.

The Twin Cities NWS has issued a flood watch through Friday morning for the metro and much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

It appears the first wave may come through without severe weather, but as warm and humid and increasingly unstable air is drawn north with the system, there is the potential for some severe storms into Thursday.

Bottom line: get ready for some potential heavy rainfall over the next 36 hours, and keep an eye out for possible severe weather, especially in southern Minnesota.

-Twin Cities radar
-NWS watches and warnings

PH

Forecast: Major rain event late Wednesday & Thursday?

Posted at 2:43 PM on September 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Warm fronts

Update 2:40pm

The latest forecast models coming in indicate the potential for a major rainfall event for parts of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities metro area.

It now appears at least two waves of rain and thunder may roll in starting Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday night, some areas could be swamped with anywhere from 2" to as much as 4"+ in the wettest scenario. Localized flooding could be an issue by Thursday night into Friday morning.

NWS and modles cranking out at least 2" rainfall for the metro through Thursday.
(Click for bigger image)

The first wave may roll into eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities anytime after 3pm Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night. The second wave may brew Thursday.

The air to the south of the warm front with this system will be very warm and unstable. There is a risk for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The Twin Cities appears to be right on the northern edge of the potential severe risk area.

Enjoy the tranquil weather tonight and early Wednesday, then be ready to batten down the hatches for potentially heavy rain by late Wednesday and Thursday.

PH

Original post 9:00 am

You gotta love September in Minnesota.

We've had several frosty mornings in northeast Minnesota last weekend. Then came Monday.

It started cool, with Octoberish temperature levels in the 50s under a steely sky. It was 52 in the Twin Cities at 5:43am. Okay, that's pretty normal stuff for late September.

That was before the super turbo charged warm front blasted in from Iowa. As skies cleared and the sun popped out Monday afternoon south of the warm front, temperatures shot up anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees in just a few hours.

It hit 90 in Luverne, St. James, Mankato, and Fairmont. The temperature spike continued after sundown, with the Twin Cities reaching the daily high of 80 degrees at 11:37pm!

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
201 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 80 1137 PM

(Click for bigger image)

I saw a July-like 97 degrees Monday in northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

Check out the temperature surge as the front pushed north Monday afternoon.

Overnight rumblers:

As a cool front swept through overnight, a few storms rumbled along with it. Here are some rainfall totals.

Twin Cities Airport .56"
St. Paul .40"
Eden Prairie .17"

There were also a few hail reports and some tree branches down. Hail fell with one particular cell as it crossed from near Twin Cities Airport, into Highland Park and onto Hudson, Wisconsin.

MPX: Hudson [St. Croix Co, WI] law enforcement reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 01:52 AM CDT -- branches down and power outages reported.

MPX: 1 E Richfield [Hennepin Co, MN] asos reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 01:37 AM CDT -- observed at msp international airport.

Doppler storm total rainfall shows some streaks of 1" rainfall under heavier cells. Doppler tends to estmate a little high when hail is present in cloud towers like the storms overnight.

Heavy rain Thursday:

A strong low pressure system is headed this way Wednesday night and Thursday. This one looks like it will be an efficient ran producer, and most of the southern half of Minnesota could see heavy rain starting Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday.

It looks like some widespread 1" to 2" rainfall totals are likely. There could be some isoletd areas of 3"+ with this potent system.

The weather maps for Thursday have the look of a major low pressure system that would produce a major winter storm if this were December. We can be thankful it's still September and we're looking at an inch or two of rain instead of a foot or more of snow!

Enjoy the sun and mild temps in the lower 70s today!

Weather Lab moves to Target Field tonight:

And wish me luck tonight.

I'll be filling in for Craig Edwards as game day meteorologist for the Minnesota Twins at Target Field tonight. The Twins could clinch the division title tonight if they win and Oakland beats the White Sox.

Tune in to KNOW 91.1FM for my live weathercast from Target Field at about 5:48pm assuming we get all the kinks worked out right.

Go Twins!

PH

September Chill

Posted at 8:25 AM on September 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

It's starting to feel a lot like September, or even October out there.

Many Minnesotans are asking, "Where did summer go?" The answer...it went to Oklahoma.

A family of Canadian cold fronts is forcing colder air down our throats in Minnesota these days. Temperatures are running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below average, and that trend will continue through the weekend.

Temperatures in the 30s and 40s are pooling north of the border, and Minnesota will be tapping that cooler air for the next few days.

Rogers tornado 4 years ago today:

You may recall the unusual and tragic Rogers tornado occurred 4 years ago today. The tornado was unusual in several aspects including that it struck at nearly 10pm at night. It also was considered a late season tornado in Minnesota. A 10 year old girl was killed by the twister when the home she was in collapsed on top of her.

I was in Rogers shortly after 10pm the night the tornado struck reporting for WCCO-TV. As I arrived at the Rogers exit on I-94 it was clear something was very, very wrong. The usually bright freeway frontage road was completely dark. The brightly lit car dealerships were black. As I pulled into town, huge high tension power lines lay perilously across the parking lot at the Rogers High School.

It was tough to see in the blackness, but it was clear that a major damaging wind event had struck.

The local NWS office caught a lot of flack for the lack of a tornado warning in Rogers. To be fair, the radar images from that night were very unusual for tornadoes. There was no classic hook echo as the storm approached from the west, and it would have been difficult to near impossible to provide an early warning for that unusually rapid tornadic storm.

Brighter note:

Ending on a brighter note, look for increasing sunshine as we head through the day in Minnesota.

PH

Locally heavy rainfall overnight

Posted at 7:27 PM on September 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 7:30pm:

Radar and satellite trends continue to favor storms with locally heavy rainfall through tonight. Expect local downpours, and some areas will receive 1" to 2" rainfall totals overnight.

There will be some localized street flooding tonight in the metro and throughout the southern half of Minnesota.

PH

Update 6:35pm:

It's a stormy night in Minnesota.

Strong to severe storms continue to fire in southern Minnesota, and other storms will move through the metro area with rain, gusty winds and thunder through tonight.

Expect occasional moderate to heavy rain with some areas getting 1"+ through tonight.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Le Sueur [MN] till 6:45 PM CDT ...AT 626 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST HENRY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

Update 6:15pm:

MPX: 2 E St Peter [Le Sueur Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 06:13 PM CDT --

MPX: 2 Ne Waldorf [Waseca Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 06:00 PM CDT --

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR
KASOTA...OR OVER KASOTA...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AT 610 PM...A SPOTTER REPORTED A WALL CLOUD JUST NORTH OF MANKATO
WITH THIS STORM.

SPC has issued a tornado watch until 8pm for much of southern Minnesota. The watch area technically does not include the Twin Cities metro, but it's close enough to be watched for potential severe storms in the metro.

The watch area does include Redwood Falls, Mankato, and runs right up to the southwest metro border counties.

A warm front has pushed into southern Minnesota, and temperatures are near 80 degrees this afternoon near the Iowa border. Temps in the 70s lie just south of the Twin Cities metro where skies have cleared for sunshine today. This has destabilized the atmosphere enough to trigger another wave of thunderstorms, which may roll through the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota late this afternoon.

Keep an eye out for potential severe storms and possible tornadoes especially south of the metro along the I-90 corridor today.

-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

Major Hurricane Earl: (And a slight severe risk for Minnesota)

Posted at 8:45 AM on August 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall, Severe weather

Powerful Hurricane Earl has the attention of the U.S. East Coast.

The powerful Category 4 storm is the season's first major hurricane, and it looks to make a close pass on North Carolina's Outer Banks Thursday. Here are the numbers from NHC.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
900 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

Intensity forecasts for Earl fluctuate between about 135 and 140 mph for the next 36 hours, with a gradual decrease in wind speed after that. Earl will likely still be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it brushes the North Carolina coast Thursday.

The latest model trends continue to push Earl westward, a little closer to the Carolina coast Thursday. There is a chance Earl could score a direct hit on the Outer Banks. Even if the center of Earl passes off shore, the storm will still trigger coastal flooding and erosion with pounding waves and storms surge.

Check out the radar loop from Pureto Rico as Earl passes by to the north of the island.

Storm risk again today:

Round one of thunderstorms woke many of us overnight. Lighting and heavy downpours we're the featured fare with the early AM storms.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints a swath of 2" to 3" rainfall west of the metro.

There are some impressive rainfall reports from overnight in southwest Minnesota.

Montevideo 2.20"
Granite Falls 3"

Amounts were lighter but significant in the Twin Cities area.

MSP Airport .35"
Huttner Weather Lab (west metro) .45"
Forest Lake .90"

Round #2 should develop this afternoon, but the intensity and location of the storms could be largely cloud dependant.

If the debris clouds from the morning storms breaks, and we get ample sun early this afternoon we could see storms fire near the metro late PM. If the clouds hold a little longer, storms may form east of the Twin Cities and shift the sever weather potential to Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota and Iowa.

Stay tuned for possible watches and warnings late this afternoon.

PH

Atlantic Roars: Tropical Storm in Iceland?

Posted at 5:15 PM on August 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, Severe weather

We don't really think of Iceland and Greenland as tropical storm territory, but that may change this week.

Tropical Storm Danielle is making her way through the North Atlantic these days. The still near hurricane strength storm is packing 70 mph winds about 425 miles SSE of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The latest guidance for Danielle maintains tropical storm strength for the system as it moves north toward Iceland or the southern tip of Greenland in the next 5 days.

Tropical storms north of 55N are relatively rare, and Iceland sits at 65N. Pretty rare stuff in this summer of global weather extremes.

Earl intensifies:

Hurricane Earl has ramped up to a monster Category 4 hurricane. The fierce storm packs winds of 135mph as of late Monday.

Earl is expected to recurve just east of the eastern U.S. coastline and may graze the North Carolina Outer Banks and or Cape Cod with a glancing blow this week. High surf and coastal erosion will pound the beaches of the east coast this week. Look for you favorite Weather Channel reporter to be out in the pounding surf this week.

Fiona Forms:

The next tropical system is ramping up as an easterly wave that came off Cape Verde has become Tropical Storm Fiona. Hopefully "Fi" will not be as dangerous as our favorite Burn Notice character, but Fiona is expected to maintain strength as she tracks northwest toward the northern Lesser Antilles.

Expect storms to rumble across Minnesota from west to east overnight. Severe weather watches are posted tonight for the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota.

Storms Return:

I'm back from vacation so that must mean that after a mostly storm free week, thunder is back in the forecast. If you're tired of the storms, I'm right there with you this summer.

Thunder may rumble into the Twin Cities metro well after midnight or toward morning, with the best chances for rain and thunder lingering through Tuesday. There will be a chance for some severe weather on Tuesday so keep a weather eye to the sky.

(click for bigger image)

PH

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Minnesota Tornadoes: 145 and counting

Posted at 8:39 AM on August 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Minnesota continues to lead the nation in tornado reports this year. The latest tally from the Storm Prediction Center website is 145 tornado reports in Minnesota this year.

That number pretty much blows away states in tornado alley including Texas, which has logged 87 tornado reports this year. Here are the top 7 states in tornado reports from the SPC website as of today.

Minnesota 145
Texas 87
Kansas 80
Oklahoma 70
North Dakota 68
Colorado 66
Wisconsin 60

Keep in mind that the number of "tornado reports" usually drops by about a third after NWS verifies final numbers. Still, the state rankings should not change too much. That may mean Minnesota claims the crown as the center of tornado alley for the first time on record in 2010. The intensity of the fall severe weather season in the southern states will likely be the deciding factor.

Severe Risk Again:

A slow moving cold front will bring relief to the heat later this week, and will also trigger a possible round of severe storms in the eastern Dakotas today and eastern Minnesota late tonight and Tuesday.

The highest threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will be in northwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas today, but may shift east by Tuesday.

90s adding up:

One reason we've had so much severe weather this summer is that we've had plenty of heat and humidity surging north.

Today looks like day 17 of 90 degree heat in the Twin Cities this summer. We suffered through 94 on Sunday, and dew points surged into the upper 60s and low 70s again.

The average number of 90 degree days is 13 for the metro in a summer.

The Twin Cities NWS logs a weather stat called cooling degree days. The number represents the departure from an average daily temperature of 65 degrees, and gives you an idea of how much energy is required to cool your home.

Since June 1st the metro has logged 876 CDD. That's 364 CDD higher than last year's 512 to date.

Bottom line? You're using about 71% more energy this summer compared to last year to cool your home as you AC hums along.

Stay cool!

PH

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Overnight thunder threat

Posted at 4:05 PM on August 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

You may hear a little thunder overnight tonight.

The latest discussions from SPC indicate that the thunder threat will increase during the overnight hours. There is still a slight risk for severe storms overnight in much of southern Minnesota.

There will be a few showers around during the evening hours, but it looks like the best chance for severe storms and locally heavy rainfall may occur overnight.

Keep an eye and an ear on the thunder threat overnight!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Twin Cities NWS
-Storm prediction Center

PH

Thundery Thursday

Posted at 8:30 AM on August 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

August may rumble again for much of Minnesota through tonight into Friday.

Synopsis:

A warm front is draped from eastern South Dakota through southern Minnesota today. As a low pressure wave surges toward Minnesota later today, showers and T-Storms will increase near the front. Action may be going in much of southwest Minnesota today, and gradually spread east into the metro by late afternoon and tonight.

Severe Threat:

The atmosphere is unstable enough that some of the storms may reach severe potential later today and tonight. It appears the highest chances for severe weather will be in southwest Minnesota today, then transition toward the metro and eastern Minnesota this evening and overnight.

The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out...especially in southwest Minnesota. It is possible that Minnesota will add to our already nation leading torando tally again today into Friday.

Heavy rainfall potential:

Some of the storms may dump locally heavy rainfall as they move slowly northeast. Forecast models are cranking out an average of about 1.25" of rainfall for southern into central Minnesota. Keep in mind that summertime convective rains are not usually evenly distributed, and amounts will vary greatly depending on location.

(click to enlarge image)

Bottom line:

Chances for storms will increase from west to east across southern Minnesota today and tonight. Keep an eye and ear out for possible warnings as the day (and night) wears on.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

PH

It's Official: June 17th set Minnesota record for tornadoes

Posted at 3:45 PM on August 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Tornadoes

The Twin Cities NWS office issued a report today confirming that the tornado outbreak on June 17th set the all time single day record for tornadoes in Minnesota.

According to the count so far, there were a total of at least 27 (and likely more than 40) confirmed tornades in Minnesota June 17th, and the Grand Forks office has yet to confirm the actual number of touchdowns in their forecast area. This included the Wadena EF4 tornado and several others.

From The Twin Cities NWS:

HOWEVER...THE GRAND FORKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS NOT
YET BEEN ABLE TO FINALIZE THEIR JUNE 17 TOTAL. THEY HAD MANY
TORNADOES IN THEIR AREA...INCLUDING TORNADOES RATED EF4 AT WADENA
AND ALMORA.

THUS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STATEWIDE TOTAL FOR JUNE 17
WILL BE IN THE 40S. THIS WILL EASILY ECLIPSE THE OLD RECORD OF 27
SET ON JUNE 16 1992.

It also looks like 2010, as reported here earlier this week, will end up as a record year for tornadoes in Minnesota. Again, here's the word from Twin Cities NWS.

THE SUMMER OF 2010...
WHILE JUNE 17 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HUGE NUMBER OF TORNADOES TO THE
STATEWIDE TALLY THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN MANY MORE TORNADO DAYS
SINCE THEN. IT HAS JUST BEEN WAY TOO BUSY TO TALLY ALL THE DAMAGE
SURVEYS... CORROBORATE SPOTTER REPORTS...VIEW ALL THE VIDEO AND
PHOTOS...AND CROSS CHECK DETAILS WITH RADAR...BUT IT LOOKS QUITE
LIKELY THAT 2010 WILL SET A RECORD FOR TORNADOES IN ONE YEAR. THAT
RECORD OF 74 WAS SET IN 2001.

It is still likely that we'll add to the number of tornadoes this year in Minnesota.

PH

Thunder Threat

Posted at 8:30 AM on August 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

It was a nice break while it lasted.

Get ready for another round of showers and thunderstorms in most of central and southern Minnesota over the next 24 hours. But this batch may be a little different.

A September like cool front will sag slowly south today through Minnesota. The frontal boundary is the focal point for scattered "garden variety" showers and storms during the morning and early PM, but may trigger a few isolated severe storms later this afternoon and evening.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has laid out a slight risk for severe storms for central and southern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. I am in line with SPC thinking that the scenario today lacks a main upper air "trigger" to produce widespread severe weather. Still, with the surface boundary just north of the Twin Cities late today, there may be enough oomph for a few isolated severe storms.

SPC is calling for about a 15% chance for severe hail (1" diameter or larger) and/or damaging winds late today and this evening.

Two rain shots?

The front will hang around into Friday, but we may see two distinct waves of potential rainfall. The first one late today and tonight looks to be the lesser in terms of rainfall totals. We may see a break in rain most of Thursday, before the second stronger wave moves east late Thursday night and Friday morning. This second wave could produce some locally heavy rainfall over an inch in some areas overnight Thursday into Friday AM.

(click to enlarge images)

Overall the severe threat this week does not look as insanely high as what we've seen so far this summer season, but keep an eye out for an isolated severe storm or two later today.

PH

Storms fade; quieter weekend

Posted at 2:10 PM on August 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 9pm Friday

Look for a much quieter weekend as a cold front brings cooler and drier air to the region.

There will be just enough moisture for a few pop up storms Saturday afternoon and evening, so keep an eye to the western sky.

Sunday looks absolutley dry, pleasant and quiet.Look for plenty of sun, temperatures near 80 and dew points in the comfy 50s.

Enjoy!

Update 6:25pm:

Cool front pushing through the metro as of 6:25pm. Storms still firing along the frontal zone, and will favor east and southeast metro before moving into Wisconsin this evening.

If you are ahead of the storms in Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota, stay alert for possible severe weather this evening.

MPX: Dresser [Polk Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:40 PM CDT -- several trees and power lines down in and around dresser.

MPX: E Mckinley [Polk Co, WI] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:15 PM CDT -- numerous trees down...including one partially on highway 48.

ARX: Rochester [Olmsted Co, MN] broadcast media reports FLOOD at 06:21 PM CDT -- water into cars at apache mall

MPX: 8 Se Hudson [St. Croix Co, WI] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 06:13 PM CDT --

DLH: 5 S Hayward [Sawyer Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:00 PM CDT -- trees blown down in sawyer county...particularly the north woods beach area south of hayward.

Update 5:40pm:

Tornado reported near Mankato.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Blue Earth, Le Sueur, Waseca [MN] till 6:30 PM CDT ...AT 545 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTH OF MANKATO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAGLE LAKE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANKATO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

MPX: 4 Ssw Mankato [Blue Earth Co, MN] amateur radio reports TORNADO at 05:35 PM CDT -- debris noted at ground.

Update 4:50pm:

MPX: Rice [Benton Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:53 PM CDT -- 3 large 24 inch trees down blocking 2nd ave. ne

ARX: 7 Wnw Stewartville [Olmsted Co, MN] amateur radio reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 04:50 PM CDT -- reported near dodge county line by spotters and ham radio operators

DLH: 2 Sw Hinckley [Pine Co, MN] trained spotter reports FLASH FLOOD at 04:50 PM CDT -- 3 inches of rain in an hour. observer reported a lot of standing water even in grassy areas and ditches full.

Tornado watch continues for far southeast Minnesota until 10pm. Touchdowns have been reported.

ARX: 4 Sw Rochester [Olmsted Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 04:40 PM CDT -- weak touchdown on county road 15 at 60th street sw near wildlife refuge

Update 4:25pm:

MPX: Hugo [Washington Co, MN] law enforcement reports HAIL of marble size (M0.50 INCH) at 04:30 PM CDT -- dime size

Storms in east metro dumping heay rain moving east into western Wisconsin. New line of storms developing west of the metro. Severe storms in progress along I-35 near Hinckley and tornadic storms near Rochester.

Update 4:05pm:

MPX: Milaca [Mille Lacs Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:35 PM CDT -- tree on power line

MPX: 1 Ese St Augusta [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:00 PM CDT -- 8 inch tree down

MPX: Buffalo [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:59 PM CDT -- winds to estimate 45 mph died and spotter noticed a large amount of rotation.

Tornado reported south of Kasson.

ARX continues Tornado Warning for Dodge, Olmsted [MN] till 5:00 PM CDT ...AT 355 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF KASSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

Update 3:45pm

MPX: 1 Sse Clear Lake [Sherburne Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 03:40 PM CDT --

MPX: Clear Lake [Sherburne Co, MN] law enforcement reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:47 PM CDT -- report of rotation on highway 24 s of clear lake also report of quarter hail.

Massive bow echo in central Minnesota causing widespread wind damage. This storm has a history of 70 to 80mph winds. Take cover if you are in the path of this storm!

Update 3:10pm:

Numerous damage reports coming in from near St. Cloud.

MPX: Holdingford [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:54 PM CDT -- 3-27 inch trees down and scattered in all directions. power lines down between holdingford and royalton.

MPX: Melrose [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E54.00 MPH at 01:32 PM CDT --

MPX: Rice [Benton Co, MN] nws employee reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:20 PM CDT -- 18 wheeler blown over billboards blown down

MPX: 5 S St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] co-op observer reports FLOOD at 02:16 PM CDT -- standing water covering roads

MPX: 1 E Rice [Benton Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:18 PM CDT -- 6-8 inch trees down shed demolished on co. road 1

MPX: Sartell [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:05 PM CDT -- trees down

MPX: Rice [Benton Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M74 MPH at 02:59 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 E Rice [Benton Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:03 PM CDT -- several trees down on west lake drive

MPX: Rice [Benton Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports TSTM WND GST of M50 MPH at 02:59 PM CDT --

MPX: Holdingford [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:54 PM CDT -- 20 inch tree down

Update 2:45pm:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorms Watch until 10pm. The watch includes St. Cloud, the Twin Cities metro, Mankato and Rochester.

A line of storms is forming west of the metro and will sweep into the Twin Cities anytime after 4pm this afternoon.

The siege continues.

A cold front is moving through western Minnesota this afternoon. The front will eventually help scour out the heat wave and storms triggering tropical moisture. First, it is triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms as it sweeps eastward.

Expect more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as we head through this evening.

Flooding rainfall overnight:

Check out these unbelievable rainfall totals from overnight. The full list is here, but I've posted a few highlights below.

-Twin Cities Airport 1.47"
-St. Paul 1.16"
-Eden Prairie 2.65"
-Eagan 2.85"
-Chanhassen 3.33"
-Chaska 3.49"
-Lester Prairie 4"
-Zumbrota 4"
-Melrose 4.51"
-Carver 4.75"

The map below shows the incredible swaths of 3" to 4"+ rainfall that swept across Minnesota overnight.

PH

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Tornado Watch includes metro until 8pm

Posted at 2:42 PM on August 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 3:55pm:

Band of storms moving from SW to NW into west metro. Expect scattered storms between now and 8pm in the metro. Storms will feature locally heavy rain and gusty winds. So far no severe weather has been reported.

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a tornado watch until 8pm which includes much of south central Minnesta and the Twin Cities metro.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Heavy rain & thunder: Greenland ice & climate change

Posted at 8:26 AM on August 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Heat, Severe weather

How do you spell relief?

R-A-I-N.

That's our best hope today for temporarily breaking the back of our August heat wave.

A warm front gurgling north out of Iowa today is pushing scattered rain into southern Minnesota. The morning showers and embedded thunder are mostly garden variety summer showers with locally heavy downpours.

Update 10:15pm:

The Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven reports 1.25" of rain in the past hour. Rain was torrential, and came with wind gusts to at least 45mph.

An urban flood advisory has been issued for the Twin Cities metro for a quick shot of 1" to 2" of rain. Expect localized street flooding with torrential downpours as storms pass through late morning into midday. Gusty winds to 45 mph will also accompany storms.

Severe weather may increase later this afternoon and tonight.

The threat for severe storms will increase by late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlights some uncertainty in the forecast, but hints at the potential for a few storms to reach severe criteria later today. Keep in mind the threshold for a severe thunderstorms is winds of at least 58mph and or 1" diameter hail.

The highest threat for sever weather appears to be in southwest and south central Minnesota today.

Heavy rain possible:

The main feature of tonight's weather system may be heavy rain. The forecast models ar cranking out anywhere from .50" to well over an inch of rain through Wednesday morning. Another timely free watering is on the way for gardens, lawns and farm fields in Minnesota which are set to deliver record crop numbers this year.

August heat wave:

One step outside and you know it's been stiflingly hot this month. You can barely catch a breath with Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels.

After enduring our hottest day so far this year on Sunday with a blazing 96 degrees in the metro, Monday threw a 95 up on the board Monday. The numbers tell the story this month.

August temps so far: +7.4 degrees
4 days at or above 90 (out of 9 so far in August)
12 days at or above 90 this year (annual average is 13, and we will likely exceed that number this week)

Look for at least 2 more 90 degree days this week before a cold front sweeps away the heat and humidity by Saturday bringing welcome relief.

2010: Year of the tornado:

By my count and Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climatology office, we've seen about 47 tornadoes skip across Minnesota this year. That's nearly twice the long term annual average of about 25, and even higher than the more recent decadal average of around 40. It appears the trend is for tornado alley to be shifting north, and Minnesota has been ground zero for twisters this year.

Massive Greenland ice chunk breaks off:

No doubt you've heard about the massive chunk of glacial ice that broke off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier this past week. Check out these amazing numbers.

-The ice chunk is 4 times the size of Manhattan Island

-The calved glacier is 600 feet thick (now that's an ice cube)

-This is the largest Arctic iceberg to break off in 48 years, since 1962

So is it climate change?

According to Dr. Jay Zwally of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...yes. Dr. Zwally has spent a career studying glaciers and climate, and says this is "100%" attributable to climate change. The Arctic is warming at a rate 3 to 4 times faster than the lower altitudes, and this is contributing to massive loss of glacial and sea ice in the Arctic regions.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Other scientists are divided on the issue.

I've always said you can't use one year or one event as evidence of global climate change. But consider the evidence for 2010, which continues the long term trend of an overheated planet.

-2010 is the hottest year on record so far
-At least 7 countries have set new all time record highs this year
-Record heat, record fires and thick smoke choking Moscow and Russia
-Largest iceberg in 48 years breaks off from Greenland
-The past decade is the hottest on record
-The 2000s were hotter that the 1990s, which were hotter than the 1980s, which were hotter than the 1970s.

This is either the mother of all coincidences, or this planet is on course for even more heat and rapid earth changes over the next 10 years.

PH

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Storms rumble again

Posted at 7:46 PM on August 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

A severe T-Storm watch is in effect until 2am. Storms near the metro have weakend in the past few hours. I expect the trend will be for storms to weaken as we go through tonight, but keep an eye out for possible warnings.

Possible roll cloud or horizontal funnel captured by Scott Henry in Bloomington Sunday evening.

There have been a couple of funnel clouds sighted...so far no touchdowns. Here are the few severe weather reports via Twin Cities NWS.

MPX: River Falls [Pierce Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M0.94 INCH at 08:19 PM CDT -- pcpn fell in 37 minutes.

MPX: Bayport [Washington Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:05 PM CDT -- 8 inch diameter trees down.

MPX: Maple Grove [Hennepin Co, MN] nws employee reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:55 PM CDT -- tree damage including 2 to 4 inch diameter branches down and a few 6 to 8 inch diameter trees down. damage reported near intersection of interstates 494 and 694.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN CHAMPLIN 45.17N 93.39W
08/08/2010 M0.95 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN ENDED/MEASURED 0.95 IN 40 MINS.

0706 PM HAIL OAKDALE 44.99N 92.97W
08/08/2010 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MPX: 6 W River Falls [Pierce Co, WI] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 07:26 PM CDT -- descended and rose again.

MPX: Afton [Washington Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH at 07:08 PM CDT --

MPX: Montrose [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:30 PM CDT -- has gone up and down.

The main trigger for storms today is the heat creating unstable rising air that brewed into a few thunderstorms. In fact, our 96 today tied a record and is the hottest day so far this year!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
750 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

...THE TWIN CITIES HAS TIED THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 96 DEGREES IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 4:05 PM.

THIS TIES THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN 1914 AND 1894.

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Storms fade: Hot & humid Sunday

Posted at 5:51 PM on August 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 2:40am:

Storms with heavy tropical downpours dumped locally heavy rainfall totals in scattered areas overnight.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows bands of heavy rain with 2-3" near Marshall and the south end of Lake MIlle Lacs Saturday night.

Heat and humidity return today, with temperatures in the low 90s and plenty of humidity with dew points in the 70s.

Stay cool!

PH

Update 11pm:

Expect scattered T-Storms in central Minnesota and the metro and western Wisconsin into Sunday morning. A few may be severe.

-Latest from Twin Cities NWS

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

Update 8:40pm:

Storms now near Alexandria are moving very slooooowly down I-94. It looks like they may not reach the metro until after 11pm at the earliest and more likely after midnight. There is also a trend that suggests they may stay north or clip mainly the northern metro...depending on movement.

There were a few reports of severe weather and tornadoes sighted earlier this evening with these storms.

MPX: Evansville [Douglas Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:12 PM CDT -- most of the city lost power.

MPX: 3 W Evansville [Douglas Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports TORNADO at 08:05 PM CDT --

FGF: 7 S Wahpeton [Richland Co, ND] public reports TORNADO at 06:30 PM CDT -- powerlines down and debris carried into a field per spotter report near tyler.

FGF: 3 Wnw Tenney [Wilkin Co, MN] storm chaser reports TORNADO at 06:25 PM CDT --

fgfchat 2010/08/07 6:27 PM iembot FGF: 3 W Campbell [Wilkin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:26 PM CDT --

fgfchat 2010/08/07 6:25 PM iembot FGF: 5 Se Wahpeton [Wilkin Co, MN] emergency mngr reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:16 PM CDT -- funnel cloud

Update 6:10pm

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch until 1 am Sunday for eastern North Dakota and most of central Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro area.

Storms will likely develop along a line from south of Fargo to near Alexandria this evening, and then move east southeast along the I-94 corridor toward St. Cloud and the Twin Cities later tonight.

It looks like the most likely scenario is for storms to approach the metro well after dark, possibly after midnight.

The primary threats will be damaging winds; large hail and torrential rains, but there may be a few tornadoes possible tonight, especially between Fargo and St. Cloud.

-Aberdeen radar loop
-Twin Cities radar loop

Latest warnings here:

-Grand Forks NWS
-Twin Cities NWS

I think the metro will likely be storm free this evening, but keep an eye out for possible warnings later tonight.

PH

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New U.S. record hailstone falls in South Dakota

Posted at 4:36 PM on July 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

You know our recent onslaught of severe weather has been intense in the Upper Midwest.

Well, here's one for the record books.

An intense hailstorm in Vivian, South Dakota last Friday produced a giant hailstone 8" in diameter and weighing in at 1.9 pounds! The NWS in Aberdeen, South Dakota and a 3 person NOAA team confirms the record for the largest hailstone ever recorded in the United States.

Abredeen NWS photos. (Click to enlarge)

55-year old ranch worker Les Scott found the new record chunk of ice. NOAA's National Climate Extremes Committee, responsible for validating national weather records, has declared a hailstone found last week in Vivian, S.D., to be the largest in diameter and heaviest ever recovered in the United States.

It may be the largest diameter hailstone in the world, but a hailstone in Bangledesh is believed to have been heavier.

This hailstone broke the previous United States hail size record for diameter (7.0 inches - 22 June 2003 in Aurora, NE) and weight (1.67 pounds - 3 September 1970 in Coffeyvile, KS). The Aurora, Nebraska hailstone will retain the record for circumference (18.75 inches).

Here are the stats on the new U.S. all time record hailstone that fell last Friday.

Location: Vivian, South Dakota
(Just north of I-90 and west of the Missouri River in central South Dakota)

July 23, 2010

Diameter = 8.0 inch
Circumference = 18.625 inch
Weight = 1 lb 15/16 oz (1.9375 lbs)

The hailstone was so big....(How big was it Paul???) that it left a 9" wide divot in the ground that was 1" to 2" deep.

The hailstone was likely even bigger as it hit the ground. The homowner had lost power and some melting and shrinkage had already occurred by the time NWS personell arrived to measure the hailstone.

The updrafts in the storms that day we're amazingly strong. To suspend a hailstone weighing nearly 2 pounds takes violent updrafts well over 100 mph. The NWS has estimated the updrafts in the storms over Vivian that day were between 160mph and 180mph!

Minnesota's Largest hailstone measures 6 inches in diameter and was recored twice.

July 4, 1968 in Edgerton
July 28, 1986 Reading

PH

Storms cause significant damage in Wisconsin

Posted at 4:53 PM on July 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

The storms that rumbled through central Minnesota turned even more severe as they raced into northern Wisconsin Tuesday night.

GOES 1km visible loop shows severe storms mushrooming to over 50,000 feet Tuesday night.

The Duluth NWS office is reporting significant damage in Ashland, Bayfield and Iron counties in Wisconsin. The area is a popular summer destination for boaters and campers, and there are reports of some injuries.

Morse, WI in Ashland County. Photos courtesy of Paul Ostrum from the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest

It appears this may have been a wide spread "blowdown" type event. A series of downbursts, or straight line wind events combined with possible tornadoes tore through the white pines pretty good Tuesday night.

The Duluth NWS has survey teams out today and posted this update today.

Latest News

•14 warnings issued by NWS Duluth - 4 Tornado Warnings and 10 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
•30 severe weather reports received by the NWS Duluth. We also received 16 additional non-severe reports.
•Up to baseball size hail reported in Bayfield County, where wind driven hail caused a substantial amount of damage, particularly in the Delta township.

More data will be available when the team finishes its work.

PH

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Free air conditioning

Posted at 8:12 AM on July 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather, Summer

Minnesotans can breathe easier today. Literally.

A fresh northwest breeze is ushering in a cooler and much drier air mass in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Canadian high pressure is building in from the northwest. The cooler clean Canadian air is cleaning out the haze and gunk and dropping dew points from the upper 70s and low 80s yesterday, to the 50s today. You'll notice (and hopefully enjoy) less than half the water vapor in the air today compared to Tuesday.

Storm reports:

Tuesday's line of severe thunderstorms spared many areas in the metro, but caused a swath of damage stretching from Fargo through St. Cloud to north of the metro (and northern metro) and into western and northern Wisconsin.

There are reports of injuries on Madeline Island in the popular Apostle Islands in northern Wisconsin, and near Mercer. The Duluth NWS office is sending a survey team to investigate today.

Here are the storm reports from the Duluth NWS.

DLH: Madeline Island [Ashland Co, WI] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of E60.00 MPH at 27 Jul, 06:00 PM CDT -- weather channel reports 3 injuries at campground on apostle islands. damage to cars and trees. time estimated by radar

DLH: Turtle Flambeau Flowage [Iron Co, MN] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:40 PM CDT -- *** 6 inj *** preliminary report. rescues in progress on the islands.

Weather winning streak?

There are signs that our stormy weather pattern may ease a bit over the next two weeks. Our next round of thunderstorms looks like it will roll through early Friday morning. Other than that, it should be a fairly quiet pattern as we head into the weekend.

After another shot at T-Storms Monday, next week may turn out fairly quiet for a change as a slightly drier northwest flow develops in the upper atmosphere.

The jet stream is never too far away though, and we'll have to keep an eye out for periodic storms. Hopefully our 6 week long onslaught of storms and severe weather parade is wining down.

Enjoy the best weather Minnesota has to offer today and tomorrow!

PH

Storms fade: Nicer Wednesday

Posted at 3:36 PM on July 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Update 10PM:

Possible injuries at Turtle Flambeau Flowage northeast of Park Falls, WI.

DLH: Turtle Flambeau Flowage [Iron Co, WI] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:40 PM CDT -- *** 6 inj *** preliminary report. rescues in progress on the islands.

Storms have passed with little damage in the area. Good news.

Of course all weather is local. Check out the photo below. Lightning hit a tree 100 yards from the weather lab. The tree split and fell across the road, taking a power pole and streetlight down, and taking out power to the Huttner Weather Lab at around 8pm Tuesday evening.

Update 7:40pm:

Some wind damage with storms near Stacy and in western Wisconsin, but so far storms are relatively tame in the metro.

MPX: Balsam Lake [Polk Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:20 PM CDT -- signs down. garage damaged. trees up to 5 inches in diameter downed in balsam lake area. time estimated.

MPX: 4 Wnw Stacy [Isanti Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:56 PM CDT -- tree branches up to 5 inches in diameter down

MPX: 7 N Range [Polk Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:25 PM CDT -- large pines trees toppled.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
WESTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN DUNN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 727 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARRONETT TO RANGE TO OSCEOLA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. AT 730 PM LARGE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR
BALSAM LAKE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
AMERY...
RICE LAKE...
DERONDA...
TURTLE LAKE...
COMSTOCK...
BARRONETT...
CUMBERLAND...
STAR PRAIRIE...
CLEAR LAKE...
DEER PARK...
PRAIRIE FARM...
HAUGEN...

Update: 9:00 pm:

The National Weather Service has told Skywarn that severe weather threat has diminished.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 11 p.m.

Update: 8:34 pm:

From MPR News reporter Jess Mador: Xcel Energy is reporting a total of about 1,000 customers lost power across the seven-county metro area. Xcel has about 1 million customers in the metro. An Xcel spokeswoman says so far the system has not suffered much damage from tonight's storm.

Update 8:31 pm:

If the storm has passed you, does it feel a little cooler?

From Twitter: @crossons Temp dropped 20 degrees after intense wind and rain blew thru Roseville. Now strange yellow sunset sky. #mnstorms

Update 8:26 pm:

A trained skywarn spotter says a wall cloud was briefly spotted near downtown Rosemount. No funnel reported.

Update 8:12 pm:

No severe thunderstorm weather warnings in Minnesota at the moment, and tornado watches are expiring as the storm front moves to the southeast.

It's gotten really dark here at MPR HQ in St. Paul; lots of lightning in the air, too.

Little in the way of damage reports still in Minnesota.

Western Wisconsin is seeing the effects of some strong winds...

A garage was damaged in Polk, Wis. where 'large pine trees' were also toppled. Seven-inch-diameter trees were reported blown down in Barron, Wis.

Update 8:04pm:

Online news producer Than Tibbetts here. Paul Huttner reports that he's lost power in the Huttner Weatherlab after a lighting strike in his neighborhood.

Update 7:46pm:

A trained spotter reports 2 inches of rain falling in less than an hour near Hinckley in Pine County.

On twitter, @ironiridis shares a picture of the approaching storm clouds in the western metro.

Update 7:10pm:

SPC confirms my thinking on the transition to straight line winds in the metro.

THOUGH PRIMARY THREAT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND ALONG THE LINE ACROSS MN INTO NWRN
WI...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DLH: Askov [Pine Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.71 INCH at 07:05 PM CDT -- fell in the last 2 hours

MPX: Richmond [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:55 PM CDT -- 8 inch diameter tree down. time estimated.

Update 6:45pm:

MPX: 3 Nw St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M71.00 MPH at 06:11 PM CDT -- measured by automated sensor kmnstcl06 near veterans golf course.

Storms are moving into the north and northwest metro though 7pm. Expect storms in the NW metro by 7pm, and most of the metro between 8pm and 10pm this evening.

The good news so far is there are no reports of confirmed tornado touchdowns. The system is evolving into a more linear system, which tends to produce (still potentially damaging) straight line winds.

These storms have a history of heavy rains, hail and wind gusts between 50mph and 71mph.

Be alert for warnings in the metro through 10pm tonight.

PH

Update 6pm:

DLH: 6 W Trego [Washburn Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:34 PM CDT -- several trees down 6 inches in diameter

MPX: 1 Ssw St Cloud [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M59.00 MPH at 06:18 PM CDT --

MPX: 5 E St Cloud [Sherburne Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M52 MPH at 06:08 PM CDT -- measured at st cloud airport.

DLH: High Bridge [Ashland Co, WI] amateur radio reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 06:19 PM CDT --

MPX: 3 Ese Belgrade [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M56 MPH at 05:56 PM CDT -- measured at mndot automated weather site on hwy 55 /mile post 98/ by georgeville.

Storms now moving into the St. Cloud area. Expect torrential rains and possible damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat in and near St. Cloud through 7pm.

Line of storms runs along Highway 23 from Willmar through St. Cloud toward Hinckley.

Latest warnings here.

Update 5:36pm:

FGF: Perham [Otter Tail Co, MN] public reports FLASH FLOOD at 03:30 PM CDT -- 4.25 inches of rain fell which caused street flooding.

MPX: 2 Se Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M67 MPH at 05:27 PM CDT -- measured at mndot automated station at mile post 128.

DLH: Maple [Douglas Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:58 PM CDT -- several power lines down.

Possible tornadic circulations with intense line of storms along Highway 23 from near Sandstone and Finlayson east into northwest Wisconsin.

Be prepared for possible damaging winds in these areas.

Update 5:16 pm:

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Benton, Morrison, Stearns [MN] till 6:00 PM CDT ...AT 520 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD NEAR ELMDALE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DLH: 2 N Aitkin [Aitkin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:20 PM CDT -- trees down near aiktin with reported wind gust of 50 mph.

Tornado warning now includes Stearns County.

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Benton, Morrison, Stearns [MN] till 6:00 PM CDT ...* AT 512 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES NORTH OF UPSALA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNC009-041-065-095-097-121-145-153-280100-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FA.Y.0026.100727T2208Z-100728T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TODD MN-MORRISON MN-MILLE LACS MN-KANABEC MN-DOUGLAS MN-STEARNS MN-
POPE MN-BENTON MN-
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
KANABEC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MILLE LACS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
POPE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
TODD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ONAMIA ON WEST THROUGH
LITTLE FALLS...LONG PRAIRIE AND ALEXANDRIA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL TRAIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALEXANDRIA...GLENWOOD...LITTLE FALLS...LONG PRAIRIE...
MILACA...MORA...PRINCETON...ST CLOUD...ALBANY...AVON...BAYVIEW...
BELGRADE...BOWLES...BRANDON...BROWERVILLE...BUCKMAN...CARLOS...
CLARISSA...CLOTHO...COLD SPRING...COLLEGEVILLE...CUSHING...EAGLE
BEND...ELMDALE...ELROSA...EVANSVILLE...FARMING...FOLEY...FORADA AND
FORESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

Update 5pm:

Strongest storms now stretch from near Ortonville through Alex, Little Falls, Mille Lacs and toward Duluth. No tornadoes or damage reports so far.

PH

MPX: Alexandria [Douglas Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M53 MPH at 04:55 PM CDT -- measured at alexandria airport

(click for bigger image)

Update 4:20pm:

FGF: 1 W Hoffman [Grant Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of nickel size (E0.88 INCH) at 04:29 PM CDT --

FGF: 5 E Barrett [Grant Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 04:29 PM CDT --

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Douglas, Pope, Stevens [MN] till 5:00 PM CDT ...* AT 417 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 6 MILES NORTH OF DONNELLY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

Update 4:05pm:

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Grant, Otter Tail [MN] till 5:00 PM CDT ...* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HERMAN...OR 33 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINTAH.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch until 11pm tonight for much of central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The watch includes the Twin Cities metro.

The increasing heat and humidity will continue to destabilize the atmosphere this evening over southern Minnesota. A "cap" or layer of warm air around 5,000 feet will keep a lid on storms for a while, but it appears storms will blow as we head into the evening hours along the cold front, and move into northern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota later this evening.

There is enough rotation and directional wind shear in the atmosphere that a few of the storms could produce tornadoes, especially from the metro east into Wisconsin.

There is also the possibility of the "usual" damaging winds and hail with storms that do develop this evening.

Intense Heat:

Welcome to the jungle.

Temperature and humidity in much of Minnesota is at Amazon Jungle levels today. Temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s to as high as 82 in St. James have pushed the heat index to over 100 degrees in much of southern Minnesota.

The all time record dew point for Minnesota is 86 degrees in July of 2005 set in St. James and Pipestone.

At 3pm the heat index (or feels like temperature) was a barbaric 114 degrees in St. James!

Here are some other readings as of 3pm:

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. N/A MEANS
CURRENT SKY AND/OR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

MNZ060>063-068>070-272100-
Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TWIN CITIES MOSUNNY 91 74 57 S13 29.82F HX 100
ST PAUL SUNNY 90 76 63 S10 29.81F HX 101
CRYSTAL SUNNY 92 74 55 S10G21 29.79F HX 101
BLAINE PTSUNNY 90 75 62 S13G21 29.81F HX 100
EDEN PRAIRIE MOSUNNY 93 74 53 S10G22 29.81F HX 103
LAKEVILLE SUNNY 88 77 70 S9 29.84S HX 100
SOUTH ST PAUL SUNNY 91 73 56 S12 29.82F HX 99
LAKE ELMO FAIR 90 73 58 S12 29.83F HX 98

APPLETON SUNNY 90 79 70 S7 29.75F HX 105
BENSON MOSUNNY 91 75 59 SW14G20 29.79F HX 102
MONTEVIDEO SUNNY 90 79 70 SW13G20 29.75S HX 105
GRANITE FALLS MOSUNNY 91 74 57 S15G21 29.78F HX 101
CANBY MOSUNNY 93 73 51 S9G16 29.78S HX 101
MARSHALL SUNNY 90 73 58 SW18 29.80F HX 98
REDWOOD FALLS SUNNY 93 74 53 S16G26 29.79F HX 103
MANKATO SUNNY 90 77 66 SW14G22 29.84S HX 102
NEW ULM SUNNY 90 73 58 S16 29.83S HX 98
ST JAMES SUNNY 91 82 75 S16 29.86S HX 114
FAIRMONT SUNNY 90 75 62 SW15G21 29.90F HX 100

Stay cool, and stay tuned for the possibility of storms in the metro alter this evening. The best window for storms in the metro still appears to be anytime after 8pm and through midnight.

PH

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Heat Advisory: Storms north today, south tonight

Posted at 8:31 AM on July 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

We're on track for our expected heat and storms around Minnesota today.

Round one of storms rumbled through central Minnesota early this morning with downpours, lightning, gusty winds and hail, but little if any damage according to storms reports so far. A few clouds and renegade showers & T-Storms even popped up around the metro as a warm front pushed through this morning.

Storms and clouds cover the northern half on Minnesota this morning on GOES 1km visible image.

The warm front marks the leading edge a hot sticky air mass that features dew points in the 70s. As skies tend to clear in parts of southern Minnesota and the metro today, temperatures will shoot up into the 90s. We have a shot at the hottest day of the year if the mercury makes a run at 96 today in the metro. If we get enough sun, that could still happen.

A heat advisory is in effect today for the southern third of Minnesota, including the metro area. The combination of temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s will push the heat index over 100 in many areas today.

Main event tonight:

Scattered storms will rumble across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin today, but it still appears the main event for southern Minnesota will happen tonight. A cold front will cut into the hot humid air mass, triggering new development west and north of the metro later this afternoon and into the evening.

We could get a stray thunderstorm this afternoon, but it still looks like we're on track for the main batch of storms in the metro between 7pm and midnight. The best chance of a slow moving line of storms moving into the metro appears to be between 8pm and 10pm. We'll get another model run this morning that may shed some light on timing, but it will be best to keep an eye on the sky today and especially this evening.

Much of Minnesota could get another good soaker, with widespread .50" to 1" rainfall totals possible through tonight.

The best chances for severe weather will be in the form of damaging winds and large hail, but SPC forecasts about a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of the metro late this afternoon or this evening.

Here are some places to keep track of unfolding weather today in Minnesota.
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Duluth radar loop
-Storm Prediction Center
-Twin Cities NWS

PH

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Forecast: Tuesday heat and severe threat

Posted at 4:26 PM on July 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat, Severe weather

Get ready for a wild weather Tuesday.

Tuesday will feature excessive heat in much of southern Minnesota, and the threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms statewide.

Let's start with the heat.

A hot, sticky air mass is surging north from Nebraska and Kansas. Temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s from Kansas into the Dakotas and eastern Montana Monday. The "thermal ridge" or heat core is likely to shift east and be in place right over southern Minnesota during the day Tuesday.

(Click for bigger image)

One forecast technique yields high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities Tuesday!

I expect many locations will hit 94 to 96 Tuesday, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a 100 degree reading somewhere in the southern half of Minnesota Tuesday around 5pm.

It's the heat AND the humidity!

The one day heat wave will come with dangerous humidity levels. Dew points will surge toward 70 degrees.

Some of the models hint at dewpoints approaching 75 degrees by Tuesday evening in the metro! That's Amazon Jungle humidity folks. We generally feel that level of moisture in Minnesota only once or twice a year.

Forecast modles push dew points into the oppressive 70s Tuesday. Note the delightful drop into the 50s by mid week!

We could see some areas hit what I call the 95/75 danger zone. That's a temperature of 95 degrees with dew point of 75. That yields an oppressive heat index of 107 degrees. Minnesotans (or anybody else for that matter) are generally not equipped to cope with that intense level of heat and humidity. 95/75 is a rare combination in Minnesota.

Take care tomorrow as temperatures and humidity rise to rain forest levels.

Severe threat:

A Canadian cold front will bring welcome relief with cooler temps and much lower humidity by Wednesday. It will also be the trigger for strong to severe storms as it slices through the steamy unstable air mass over Minnesota Tuesday.

Storms will favor the northern half of Minnesota during the day Tuesday, and then spread south into southern Minnesota Tuesday evening and overnight. I'll be scanning new forecast model runs overnight to update timing, but right now looks like the highest probability window for severe storms in the metro will be between 7pm Tuesday evening and 1am Wednesday morning.

The potential is there for large "bow echoes" to develop Tuesday in Minnesota. These lines of storms can cause widespread straight line wind damage. Also, several factors are coming together to spawn a few big rotating supercell thunderstorms at the onset of Tuesday's outbreak. The combination of heat, moisture and directional wind shear (winds verring from south to WNW with height) may cause storms to rotate. These storms have the potential to produce (hopefully only a few) tornadoes.

SPC has "risked" much of Minnesota Tuesday. Be alert for severe weather watches and warnings as the storms approach.

Stay cool and keep an eye out for storms Tuesday!

PH

Dog Days: Steamy & stormy

Posted at 8:30 AM on July 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Heat, Severe weather

Welcome to July in Minnesota.

We complain all year that it's too cold, too windy, too this, too that. Here it is. You want 80? Gotcha covered. You want humidity? Can do. Sweltering 90s and big boomers? On the way.

I remember when we were kids (a loooong time ago!) in Minnesota and in January somebody would always say; "Boy I wish it was hot like July for just one day!" Then in July....we'd wish it was like fall again.

It looks like many weather wishes and fantasies will come true this week. We'll see perfect summer days, stifling heat and humidity, big storms and a cool almost "fallish" breeze by mid-week.

Here's the outlook:

Monday: Summer's finest. Mostly sunny warm and increasingly humid. Dew points climbing through the 60s. Spotty thunderstorms far west. Highs near 88 metro, 80 far north. Wind S 5-15 mph.

Tuesday: Uncomfortably hot & humid! Highs 94 to 97 south, including the metro. Dew points near 70. Strong to severe T-Storms moving north (AM & daytime) to south (late PM & evening). Wind south 10-20 mph.

Wednesday & Thursday:

Really nice! Noticeable drop in humidity with dew points falling into the upper 50s. Highs near 80 south, 70s north. Wind NW 10-20mph Wednesday, 5-10mph Thursday.

Friday into the weekend: Muggy again with increasing chances for thunder. Highs in the 80s.

July 2010: Warm again

July temperatures are running 3.4 degrees above average as we enter the last week of the month. This is the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota this year.

We've had 4 days at or above 90 degrees this month, with a total of 7 days this year of 90-plus. The average number of 90 degree days for the summer is about 13 days.

One day heat wave:

Day #8 of 90 degree weather will occur Tuesday as heat and humidity will surges north ahead of an advancing cold front. Some forecasting techniques yield a high temperature of between 95 and 97 degrees Tuesday from the metro south. Dew points will approach 70, so you'll feel like you're swimming in a free sauna. Heat indices should climb above 100 Tuesday.

Severe threat:

As the cold front pushes south Tuesday, severe storms will again rumble across the state. Unlike the last few outbreaks, these storms will come from the northwest and work south.

SPC has a slight risk for storms in Minnesota. It looks like storms will fire in northern Minnesota during the day, and rumble into the southern half of the state later in the afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging wind and hail, but there could be a few tornadoes as the storms get going Tuesday PM.

Enjoy the last week of July!

PH

Comment on this post

Storms fade overnight

Posted at 12:00 AM on July 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Lakes, Severe weather

Update 1:45am:

Storms will move rapidly east and fade overnight. A few storms storms will linger in Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota through 4am.

Update 12:50am

Bow echo passing just south of the metro with damaging winds. See warnings below.

PH

MPX: 5 Sse Cannon Falls [Goodhue Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M59 MPH at 01:17 AM CDT -- measured at mndot sensor at mile post 90 on hwy 52

MPX: Mankato [Blue Earth Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:14 AM CDT -- several trees down around town

MPX: Madison Lake [Blue Earth Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:20 AM CDT -- tree down on powerline

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
EASTERN RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 1256 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
CASTLE ROCK TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF NORTHFIELD TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NERSTRAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
NORTHFIELD...
NERSTRAND...
DENNISON...
KENYON...
STANTON...
CASTLE ROCK...
RANDOLPH...
WASTEDO...
CANNON FALLS...
HADER...
WANAMINGO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Damaging winds are likely with fast moving bow echo in Nothfield, Faribault, and Owatonna.

1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
STEELE...RICE AND SOUTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1246 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
LONSDALE TO FARIBAULT TO DEERFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...OWATONNA...LONSDALE...MEDFORD...WEBSTER...DUNDAS...
RUSKIN...NORTHFIELD...NERSTRAND...CLINTON FALLS...BRIDGEWATER...
MERTON AND MOLAND.

Also, heavy rains will cause localized flooding south of the metro.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

MNC019-037-049-079-085-131-139-143-240900-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FA.Y.0025.100724T0549Z-100724T0900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCLEOD MN-CARVER MN-DAKOTA MN-SCOTT MN-SIBLEY MN-GOODHUE MN-
LE SUEUR MN-RICE MN-
1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EAST CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...FARIBAULT...APPLE VALLEY...ARLINGTON...BELLE PLAINE...
BURNSVILLE...CANNON FALLS...CARVER...CLEVELAND...COATES...COLOGNE...
CREDIT RIVER...DUNDAS...EAGAN...ELKO...FARMINGTON...GLENCOE...GREEN ISLE...
HADER...HAMBURG...HAMPTON...HELENA...HENDERSON...JORDAN...
KILKENNY...LAKEVILLE...LE CENTER AND LE SUEUR.

Update 12:00am Saturday (Original post 4:30pm Friday)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

MNZ060-067>070-076-240615-
CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CARVER...DAKOTA...HENNEPIN...LE
SUEUR...SCOTT AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

AT 1225 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF GREEN ISLE
TO 6 MILES EAST OF LE SUEUR TO ST HENRY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
HAMBURG.
NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA.
WACONIA.
VICTORIA.
SHOREWOOD.
MINNETONKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A line of strong to severe storms is rumbling eastward through the southern half of Minnesota overnight. A line of severe storms will pass along the I-35 corridor south of the Twin Cities. Expect large hail and possible damaging winds of 60 mph with this line of storms.

Storm reports:

MPX: Eagle Lake [Blue Earth Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:20 AM CDT -- large trees down.

A severe T-Storm Watch in in effect south of the metro until 7am.

In the Twin Cities expect a wave of thunderstorms through 3am. Most of the severe threat looks to stay south of the central metro, but storms will contain frequent lightning, downpours, gusty winds and possibly small hail as they pass through.

From Twin Cities NWS:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>063-066-068>070-076>078-084-085-092-093-
240630-
ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBERT LEA...CAMBRIDGE...HUTCHINSON...
MILACA...MINNEAPOLIS...OWATONNA...RED WING...ST CLOUD...ST PAUL...
STILLWATER...WILLMAR
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

.NOW...
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WILL BE ENCOUNTERED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE...WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS...TO JUST OVER ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES
...AS THESE CELLS PASS YOUR LOCATION PRIOR TO 1 AM. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
4 AM.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest severe weather warnings

PH

As you enjoy a beautifully warm and quiet summer Friday evening, keep an eye out for possible storms in southern Minnesota overnight.

There is a slight risk some of the storms could be severe in southern Minnesota, especially along the I-90 corridor.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the I-90 corridor counties of southern Minnesota tonight, and a tornado watch has been issued for central and eastern South Dakota until 10pm.

It looks like the bulk of any severe weather should pass south of the highly populated Twin Cities, but there could be a batch of thunderstorms rolling through anytime after midnight with the best chance between 3am and 7am.

Rare quiet Weekend?

After the chance of storms overnight, we may see what has become a rarity this summer in Minnesota...a blissfully quiet weekend. Look for increasing sunshine Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 80s.

Lake water temps near seasonal highs:

A check of water temperatures near the Weather Lab in Lake Minnetonka this week shows a surface water temperature of 82 degrees. This is at or slightly above the peak average temperature for southern Minnesota lakes, which usually takes place from late July into mid- August.

Even Lake Superior is showing unusually warm temps this summer with lake water temps near 70 degrees at the mouth of North Shore rivers like the Knife River.

Changes in wind direction over Lake Superior cause upwelling to bring frigid water to the surface with little warning in some areas. It is interesting to watch water temps fluctuate wildly in summer. Surface temperatures may be near 70 one day, and plunge into the 50s or even 30s in some areas with little warning. Keep that in mind if you are thinking of a dip in the big lake this summer.

What's the water temperature at your favorite lake this weekend? Please send a comment if you have a reading from one of our 10,000+ lakes.

Enjoy the "bathwater" lake temperatures for the next few weeks.

PH

Rain and severe threat in southern Minnesota today

Posted at 8:30 AM on July 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Baseball, Rainfall, Severe weather

A parade of showers and embedded thunderstorms is marching across southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin today.

The Twin Cities metro area is on the northern edges of this weather system. We can expect rain from time to time, but there may be several "dry" (not raining but plenty humid) hours through Friday.

The system will generally come in two main waves. The first this morning has dumped heavy rain in southern Minnesota, including nearly 3 inches in Blue Earth and Fairmont.

Doppler storm total rainfall shows multi-inch rainfall along and north of the I-90 corridor in Minnesota.

Rainfall reports on the ground confirm the doppler estimates. Here are some rainfall totals as of 6 AM this morning.

STATION MAX MIN 24-HR
: NAME TEMP TEMP PCPN
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT : 83 / 69 / 0.00
EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI AIRPORT : 84 / 66 / 0.08
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT : 86 / 69 / 0.00
MIC : CRYSTAL MN ARPT : 88 / 69 / 0.03
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT : 88 / 68 / 0.23
STP : ST PAUL MN ARPT : 88 / 68 / 0.28
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN ARPT : 88 / 69 / 0.25
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT : 86 / 68 / 0.27

IN MINNESOTA
:
BTHM5 : BLUE EARTH : 90 / 60 / 2.61
CHKM5 : CHASKA 2 NW : 86 / 58 / 0.12
FIRM5 : FAIRMONT : 85 / 68 / 2.95
ZMPM5 : FARMINGTON CWSU : M / M / 0.62
FORM5 : FOREST LAKE 5 NE : 88 / 60 / 0.00
HSTM5 : HASTINGS LOCK/DAM 2 : 87 / 65 / 0.22
HDSM5 : HENDERSON 3 W : 83 / 62 / 0.70
KIMM5 : KIMBALL 3 N : 83 / 61 / 0.00
LFLM5 : LITTLE FALLS : M / M / 0.02
LNGM5 : LONG PRAIRIE : 81 / 58 / 0.00
MKAM5 : MANKATO : 85 / 61 / 1.61
LSAM5 : MINNEAPOLIS LOWER ST : M / M / 0.14
MVDM5 : MONTEVIDEO 1 SW : 83 / 60 / 0.11
MGNM5 : MORGAN : M / M / 0.72
RDWM5 : RED WING LOCK/DAM 3 : 88 / 65 / 0.27
REWM5 : REDWOOD FALLS : 86 / 59 / 0.17
RCEM5 : RICE : 84 / 60 / 0.03
SPEM5 : ST PETER : 87 / 61 / 1.06
SFDM5 : SPRINGFIELD 1 NW : M / M / 1.49
SWRM5 : STILLWATER WTP : M / M / 0.25

Thursday's weather will play out in large part depending on where you live. In far southern Minnesota the chances for rain, heavy rain, and severe weather will be the greatest. There is a flash flood watch out through this evening basically south of the metro.

In the Twin Cities if we get some sun mixed in this afternoon that could spur scattered thunderstorms to redevelop, and bring tropical downpours to areas underneath the dew point rich storms.

The second wave of this system appears to be due in Friday night and could linger into parts of Saturday. The weather should improve dramatically later Saturday and into Sunday, which could be spectacular with bright sun, lower humidity and highs in the 80s.

Tropical Storm Bonnie?

NHC is betting on naming the season's second storm today. A storng easterly wave near Cuba may become Tropical Storm Bonnie at any moment.

Forecast models differ on the eventual intensity of Bonnie. Some models approach hurricane force within about 48 hours.

The forecasts agree more on where Bonnie will head, and you guessed it...the track looks to be right into the heart of the oil spill zone.

As we saw with Alex, even a tropical storm can wreak havoc on oil cleanup operations and drive more oil ashore through wind and wave action as well as with even minor storm surge.

Stay tuned as "Bonnie" moves into the Gulf the next 48 hours.

Outdoor baseball in Minnesota: Twins lucky weather winning streak?

I'm happy to report that the Minnesota Twins have been extremely lucky regarding the timing of rain and severe weather events so far this summer. It's almost uncanny how the games at Target Filed have dodged rain and severe weather for the most part.

You've heard of "weather rocks" and "weather ropes" which profess that "if it's wet, it's raining etc." It seems like the Twins almost have their own version at Target Field. If it's storming, the game is tomorrow. If there's lightning, the game just ended, if it's wet for days, the Twin are on a road trip!

I credit the good weather luck to my partner in weather crime Craig Edwards, who watches the skies for the Twins daily on game days. Let's hope the weather winning streak keeps going this summer.

PH

Thursday Storms: Tropical downpours & gully washers

Posted at 3:46 PM on July 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

Here's a forecast that gets to the point.

Expect rain Thursday.

Get set for the next round of storms in Minnesota. This batch could bring good ole' fashioned gully washers.

An approaching warm front and low pressure center will bring the next wave of showers and thunderstorms overnight and into Thursday. A potentially strong low level jet stream around 5k feet will feed moisture into the region overnight. Storms in the Dakotas will ride east into southern Minnesota overnight.

It looks like the best bet for arrival in the metro will be toward sunrise and rain chances will continue into Thursday morning before the first wave slides east as the day wears on.

The SPC has placed southern Minnesota under a slight risk for severe storms.

There could be high winds and hail but it appears the biggest threat may be slow moving storms that can dump heavy rains in excess of 1" to 2"+ capable of flash flooding.

Keep the NOAA Weather Radio and MPR handy as the day wears on Thursday.

PH

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Sioux Falls radar loop

Severe weather numbers impressive

Posted at 8:36 AM on July 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

Local meteorologists should be getting combat pay this month.

A look at some of the numbers during the onslaught of severe storms the past month by the Twin Cities NWS shows that we've had three times as many reports of severe weather in the past month as we had all of last year!

Here are the numbers from the Twin Cities NWS office:

The June 17th to July 17th Numbers

All statistics are for the 51 county NWS Chanhassen County Warning Area unless otherwise stated.

•395 preliminary reports of severe weather.

•2009 only had 120 total separate severe weather documented and verified.*

•Tornado counts are still being assessed and the surveying, coordinating, and documenting process takes time, thus the initial tornado number count will change some in the coming days to weeks, but to this point 37 have been documented.

•204 total severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued, with 72 being tornado warnings.

•The main six events each had at least 20 warnings issued.

•The Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has included some portion of the area in five moderate risks of severe weather in their Day 1 Daily Convective Outlook. The area was under five total moderate risks in the day 1 outlook in the two year span from June 12th, 2008 through June 16th, 2010.

Thundery Thursday:

It appears our next wave of storms will arrive in the early morning hours on Thursday. A strong low level jet stream (around 5k feet) will drive fresh moisture northward from Iowa into southern Minnesota overnight. The moist unstable air will be acted upon by a strong "short wave" in the upper atmosphere, and that should trigger an MCS (Mesoscale convective system) style cluster of organized heavy thunderstorms overnight.

NAM model cranks out 3" to 4" rainfall band for the south metro and southern Minnesota overnight.

The forecast models are cranking out some impressive rainfall totals with this system. Widespread .50" to 1/5" totals appear likely, with the NAM model cranking out an amazing 4" by Thursday afternoon. This is probably high for most areas....but it gives you the idea that there may be some locally heavy and potentially flooding rains with this system.

(Click for bigger image)

Keep an eye and ear out for heavy rainfall and severe weather again early Thursday.

PH

Comment on this post

Severe storms cause damage in Twin Cities

Posted at 12:35 PM on July 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 11:15pm:

What an amazing severe weather day. Hope you came through okay. There will be a lot of clean up Sunday.

Enjoy this amazing sunset lightning & rainbow photo from Champlain Saturday night.

PH

MPR photo by Than Tibbets. (Click for bigger image)

Update 10PM

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 951 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAGAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF ST
PAUL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SUNFISH...
WEST ST PAUL...
ROSEMOUNT...
INVER GROVE HEIGHTS...
SOUTH ST PAUL...
COATES...
NEWPORT...
ST PAUL PARK...
HAMPTON...
VERMILLION...
COTTAGE GROVE...
WOODBURY...

Update 9:30pm:

Widespread wind damage with trees down in the northern metro tonight. Heavy rains continue in Minneapolis and St. Paul favoring the southeast metro. Watch for flooded roadways. Hail may also fall with the storms before they exit the metro tonight.

Severe storms popping again near Paynesville west of the metro.

Tornado warning continues in Wisconsin.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Barron, Dunn, Polk, St. Croix [WI] till 10:00 PM CDT ...AT 928 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLEAR LAKE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMERY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

MPX: East Bethel [Anoka Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:15 PM CDT -- 8 inch tree down and 12 inch tree snapped

MPX: New Richmond [St. Croix Co, WI] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M63 MPH at 09:28 PM CDT --

MPX: 2 Wsw Ham Lake [Anoka Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:22 PM CDT -- 7 inch trees down

MPX: Stillwater [Washington Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:23 PM CDT -- 6 inch trees down at ferry falls and boom tfd

Update 8:03pm:

West metro skywarn reports wind damage and branches down in Maple Lake.

MPX: Monticello [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M76.00 MPH at 08:02 PM CDT --

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 756 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES WEST OF DAYTON...OR ABOUT 23
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRINCETON...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAMEL...
DAYTON...
MAPLE GROVE...
PLYMOUTH...
RAMSEY...
MEDICINE LAKE...
OSSEO...
ANOKA...
CHAMPLIN...
NEW HOPE...
ST FRANCIS...
CRYSTAL...

MNDOT traffic cam shows next wave of storms at I-94 & Highway 25

Update 7:40pm:

***Damaging winds imminnent in Buffalo, Monicello, Albertville * St. Michael***
Doppler indicating bow echo with gust front and 60mph+ winds. Take cover in Wright County.

PH

MPX: Sartell [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 07:46 PM CDT -- moving into benton county

Batten down the hatches metro...another wave of severe storms is rapidly approaching from the west. Expect storms with heavy rain, wind and hail in the far west metro after 8pm, and in the central metro anytime after 8:30pm.

Also, SPC has extended the tornado watch for the metro until 9pm.

Severe storms with a history of damaging winds are moving east at 40 mph towward the Twin Cities.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN...OR ABOUT
16 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITCHFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
COKATO...
ANNANDALE...
HOWARD LAKE...
CLEARWATER...
MAPLE LAKE...
HASTY...
WAVERLY...
ENFIELD...
MONTROSE...
BECKER...
BUFFALO...
MONTICELLO...

MPX: 3 E Foreston [Mille Lacs Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 07:25 PM CDT -- rope tornado touched ground briefly then went back up

Update 7:00PM

The next wave of storms is still severe in much of central and western Minnesota. More rain and thunder will approach the metro anytime after 9pm. We will have to see if the storms still pack enough punch to reamin severe.

Severe storms and damage reports are still pouring into the weather lab this evening.

Doppler indicates possible tornado near Sartell. Take cover!

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Benton, Mille Lacs, Morrison [MN] till 7:45 PM CDT ...AT 723 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORESTON...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILACA... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

MPX: Pennock [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:17 PM CDT -- downed power lines

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Mille Lacs, Morrison [MN] till 8:15 PM CDT ...* AT 710 PM CDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANDALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

MPX: 2 S Buckman [Morrison Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND GST of M81 MPH at 06:56 PM CDT -- along hwy 27

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Wadena [MN] till 7:45 PM CDT ...* AT 659 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALDRICH...OR 53 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. RADAR SHOWED THE STORM WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

MPX: 1 S Cushing [Morrison Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:58 PM CDT -- on ground

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Benton, Mille Lacs, Morrison [MN] till 7:45 PM CDT ...* AT 651 PM CDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK...OR ABOUT OVER BUCKMAN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

MPX: 3 Wnw Genola [Morrison Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 06:43 PM CDT --

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Mille Lacs, Morrison [MN] till 7:15 PM CDT ...AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VINELAND TO HILLMAN TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROYALTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

MPX: Staples [Todd Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:35 PM CDT -- trees down

MPX: Benson [Swift Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M58 MPH at 06:33 PM CDT --
mpxchat 2010/07/17 6:40 PM iembot MPX: BENSON MUNI,MN (BBB) ASOS reports gust of 50.0 knots from WSW @ 2333Z KBBB 172333Z AUTO 25037G50KT 3SM +TSRA SCT017 BKN031 OVC080 21/19 A2987 RMK AO2 P0014 LTG DSNT ALQDS

MPX: 5 N Little Falls [Morrison Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 06:30 PM CDT -- hail lasted for approx 5 minutes and covered the ground

Update 6:08PM:

Check out this AMAZING shot as the rotating wall cloud passed through Waconia this evening.

http://keithprivette.posterous.com/waconiamn

Rotating wall cloud in Waconia at 4:58pm
(click for bigger image)

Thanks to Jeanette for the heads up!

PH

Update 5:53pm:

MPX: Staples [Todd Co, MN] law enforcement reports HAIL of baseball size (E2.75 INCH) at 05:35 PM CDT -- trees down.

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Morrison [MN] till 6:30 PM CDT ...* AT 547 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUSHING...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

All warnigns have expired for metro, but tornadic and severe storms continue from central to western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.Those storms could approach the metro again later this evening. Stay on guard for severe storms.

PH

Update 5:45pm:

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:38 PM CDT -- damage reported of roofs...cars...trees and fields

Update 5:35pm:

Reports into the weather lab indicates severe hail damage in Watertown. Cars totaled and damage to siding on homes and roofs.

MPX: 4 E Watertown [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 05:08 PM CDT --

MPX: Mound [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 05:32 PM CDT --

PH

Update 5:30pm:

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 05:11 PM CDT --

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 05:05 PM CDT --

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 05:12 PM CDT --

MPX: St Bonifacius [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 05:15 PM CDT --

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of baseball size (E2.75 INCH) at 05:14 PM CDT --

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 05:12 PM CDT --

MPX: Mound [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 05:24 PM CDT --

Update 5:22pm:

MPX: Minnetrista [Hennepin Co, MN] law enforcement reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 05:18 PM CDT --

Update 5:13pm
MPX issues Tornado Warning for Morrison, Todd [MN] till 6:15 PM CDT ...* AT 506 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHILBROOK...OR ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF STAPLES AIRPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Carver, Hennepin, Wright [MN] till 5:45 PM CDT ...AT 506 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF WATERTOWN...OR 26 MILES EAST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

MPX: 2 Sw Watertown [Carver Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports TORNADO at 05:01 PM CDT -- near county road 122.

MNDOT traffic cam sees wall cloud looking west from Highwy 212 & Audubon Road

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Carver, Hennepin, Wright [MN] till 5:45 PM CDT ...AT 501 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN...OR 25 MILES EAST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WEST CENTRAL HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 457 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES
WEST OF WATERTOWN. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WATERTOWN...
MAYER...
MINNETRISTA...
ST BONIFACIUS...
WACONIA...
VICTORIA...
COLOGNE...
CHASKA...

Update 4:52pm:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WEST CENTRAL HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 443 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WAVERLY...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ROCKFORD...
DELANO...
WATERTOWN...
NEW GERMANY...
INDEPENDENCE...
LORETTO...
MAYER...
MAPLE PLAIN...
LAKE MINNETONKA...
MEDINA...
MINNETRISTA...
ST BONIFACIUS...
NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA...

Update 4:45pm:

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Otter Tail, Wadena [MN] till 5:15 PM CDT ...* AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF BLUFFTON...OR 34 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

Update 4:30pm:

(click for bigger image)

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Carver, Meeker, Wright [MN] till 4:45 PM CDT ...AT 425 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF COKATO...OR 20 MILES EAST OF LITCHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

Update 4:19pm:

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Carver, Hennepin, Meeker, Wright [MN] till 4:45 PM CDT ...* AT 416 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

Doppler continues to show strong and possibly tornadic rotation near Annandale moving southeast. Baseball size hail in South Haven.

MPX: 8 S South Haven [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of baseball size (E2.75 INCH) at 04:05 PM CDT --

(click for bigger image)

Update 4pm:

MPX: 1 N Kingston [Meeker Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:58 PM CDT -- non rotating wall cloud

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 357 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KIMBALL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FAIRHAVEN...
SOUTH HAVEN...
ANNANDALE...
MAPLE LAKE...
COKATO...
HOWARD LAKE...
BUFFALO...
WAVERLY...
MONTROSE...

Update 3:55pm:

More baseball size hail reported.

MPX: 1 N Kimball [Stearns Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 03:52 PM CDT --

MPX: Richmond [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of baseball size (M2.75 INCH) at 03:34 PM CDT --

Update 3:50pm:

Tornadic storm with Tornado Vortex Signature (TCS) detected near Eden Valley, Watkins and Kimball. Take cover now, and South Haven and Annandale and Cokato.

(click for bigger image)

MPX: Cold Spring [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of M4.25 INCH at 03:37 PM CDT -- ground is covered with mainly smaller pieces of hail.

MPX: Richmond [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of baseball size (M2.75 INCH) at 03:32 PM CDT --

Update 3:30pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 325 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FARMING...OR ABOUT 16 MILES WEST OF ST CLOUD...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
RICHMOND...
COLD SPRING...
ST NICHOLAS...
PLEASANT LAKE...
LUXEMBURG...
WATKINS...
ST AUGUSTA...
KIMBALL...
FAIRHAVEN...
SOUTH HAVEN...
ROCKVILLE...

Update 3:30pm:

Tornado watch now includes metro counties until 8pm.

Golf ball siize hail in Stearns County.

MPX: St Martin [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 03:23 PM CDT --

PH

Update 3:04pm:

(click for bigger image)

Tornado warning issued for central Stearns.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 253 PM CDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG
ROTATION. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR FREEPORT...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ALBANY...
FARMING...
AVON...
ROSCOE...
ST MARTIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

Update 2:43pm:

Doppler image below shows developing hook echo right over Sauk Centre. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IN SAUK CENTRE AND MELROSE. This storm is likey producing a tornado or will produce a tonado in the next few minutes. Severe storms are also imminent in the St. Cloud area.

Damage has been reported with this storms 3 miles NE of Lake Osakis, with 62 mph winds in Sauk Centre.

PH
MPX: 1 N Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 02:43 PM CDT --

MPX: 3 W St Rosa [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 02:37 PM CDT --

MPX: 2 N Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 02:36 PM CDT --

MPX: 4 E Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH at 02:33 PM CDT --

MPX: 4 E Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:33 PM CDT -- 4 to 5 inch branches down on road.

MPX: 3 W St Rosa [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 02:34 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 W Avon [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 02:35 PM CDT --

Update 2:35pm:

Strongest storms producing large hail up to and possible greater than golf ball size in western Stearns and Todd counties. Updrafts strong enough to produce tornadic circualtions... stay in shelter in Sauk Centre until storms passes. Wind damage reported near Lake Osakis.

MPX: 3 Ne Osakis [Todd Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:22 PM CDT -- trees down

MPX: 3 Ne Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 02:25 PM CDT --

MPX: 2 E Osakis [Todd Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:22 PM CDT -- trees down east end of lake osakis hwy 27

SPC discussion just issued belwo indicates they may add metro to tornado watch soon.

PH

SPC

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL
AND TOWARD SERN MN. WW 483 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THE MINNEAPOLIS METRO AREA.

Update 2:15pm:

The cell below is now producing golf ball and larger size hail in Long Prairie and heading toward Melrose, Albany and the greater St. Cloud area in the next 30 minutes to 1 hour.

Be on alert for possible damaging wind and hail and tornadoes as the cell moves southeast toward St. Cloud by 3pm.

MPX: 5 W Long Prairie [Todd Co, MN] fire dept/rescue reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 02:02 PM CDT --

(click for bigger image)

Update 2:06pm:

MPX: 3 Nw Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 02:03 PM CDT --

Update 2pm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EAST CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 154 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 6 MILES WEST OF
LONG PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLOTHO...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE SAUK...
GREY EAGLE...
GREY EALGE...
NORTH SHORE...
BURTRUM...

Update 1:57pm:

NWS doppler still detecting a rotating thunderstorm with a possible tornado near the north end of Lake Osakis moving southeast at 30 mph. Those of you in Sauk Centre and Long Prairie should seek shelter until the storm passes.
(click for bigger image)

Update 1:40pm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 135 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LONG PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE SAUK...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE SAUK...
GREY EAGLE...
GREY EALGE...
NORTH SHORE...
PLEASANT BEACH...
ST ROSA...
BURTRUM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

Strongest storms now near Long Prairie grazing Little Falls and heading for Sauk Rapids and Sauk Centre. Be alert for torrential downpours, large hail and possible tornadoes and damaging winds in these areas over the next 30-45 minutes.

PH

Radar shows strongest cells in red and weather stations with temperatures reaching 90 in many areas now. (click for bigger image)

Update 1:30pm:

NWS Duluth advises those in Aitkin, Deerwood (Bay Lake) and Mille Lacs areas to be on the lookout for funnels over the next hour.

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
129 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

MNZ034>036-171915-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
129 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS CROW WING AND AITKIN COUNTY...

AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CROW WING COUNTY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS...UP TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED THROUGH 215 PM INCLUDE...
FARM ISLAND LAKE... WALDECK... HASSMAN...
GARRISON... AITKIN... GLORY...
WEALTHWOOD... ROSSBURG... MILLE LACS LAKE...
KIMBERLY... GLEN... RICE LAKE...
MALMO... MCGREGOR... MCGRATH...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

Update 1:15pm

Storm reports so far below:

AT 1245 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR GULL LAKE. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BRAINERD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

Twin Cities doppler shows storms moving ESE this afternoon.

Our anticipated Saturday severe weather is developing as expected.

A tornado watch is in effect for much of central Minnesota (just west of the metro) until 8pm tonight.

Numerous severe storms have developed and are moving from north central and west central Minnesota eastward. Expect damaging winds and large hail as the storms move east this afternoon and evening.

It appears the window for the best chance of storms to arrive in the metro will be between 3pm and 7pm tonight. A second wave of storms could follow this evening.

Here are some links to track the severe weather.

PH

-Twin Cities radar loop with storm tracks
-Twin Cities NWS
-Storm Prediction Center

Comment on this post

Severe threat Saturday

Posted at 3:41 PM on July 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 4:45pm

SPC issues severe thunderstorm watch until 11pm tonight the southeast tip of Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin and much of Iowa. The watch does not include the Twin Cities area but does include Rochester and La Crosse.

Storms will stay south of the metro tonight, but those of you in southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor should expect severe storms packing the potential for 60mph winds and large hail.

<

Get the latest warnings here.

PH

Just in time for the weekend, get ready for another round of severe storms Saturday.

Several parameters are coming together over Minnesota Saturday that will likely produce another round of severe and possibly tornadic storms Saturday afternoon and evening. If you are going to be out and about Saturday, here's an early heads up to keep an eye out for severe storms, watches and warnings.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is so impressed with the potential for severe weather in Minnesota Saturday that they have placed Minnesota under a moderate risk for severe storms.

When SPC places an area under moderate risk, it anticipates a higher probability of severe weather than the common "slight risk" they lay out in convective outlooks. As a percentage, SPC is anticipating a 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any location in the risk area. So that's about a 50/50 shot that wind damage, large hail or tornadoes could strike close to home Saturday.

Check out the strong wording in Saturday's convective outlook from SPC below.

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN EARNEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR.
CONSIDERABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS/STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EARLY MODAL SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AIDED BY A
NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WILL GROW
UPSCALE/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SEVERE MCS/S
DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO
MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN INTO WI/NORTHERN IA.

Heavy rain too?

There should be plenty of low level moisture for the storms to feed on as they develop Saturday afternoon. Tropical moisture is surging back into Minnesota, with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s expected Saturday. That means some of the storms can dump torrential rain.

Some of the forecast models are hinting at bands of convective rainfall in excess of 1" to 2" with localized 3" amounts possible.

The nicer parts of the weekend for outdoor activities should be Saturday morning and most of Sunday. Heat will be a factor Saturday as temperatures soar into the lower 90s before the storms arrive. Sunday should feature a cooler and less humid air mass.

The bottom line for Saturday is keep your head up for developing severe storms in the afternoon and evening in Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northern Iowa.

We will have coverage as storms brew on MPR news stations Saturday.

PH

Dodging a weather bullet

Posted at 8:27 AM on July 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

This one falls under the category of, "it could have been worse."

The Twin Cities got lucky Wednesday. The sequence of events on an amazing weather day left the highly populated metro area relatively unscathed, even as storms and damage raged all around.

It started with the morning derecheo that roared through central Minnesota and the northwest Wisconsin lake country. Blow down like straight line winds downed trees from Grantsburg to Spooner and beyond. That complex passed north of the metro. The damage was bad enough in Wisconsin, but imagine the damage and potential for injuries had it tracked south into the metro.

Radar loop shows derecheo tracking through central Minnesota into Wisconsin Wednesday morning.

Some of the debris clouds from the morning MCS lingered over the metro through midday Wednesday. That limited surface heating in the critical midday hours, and delayed the development of tornadic afternoon storms near the metro.

Because of the delay in development tornadic storms fired rapidly just east and southeast of the metro.

The storms then evolved into a second damaging wind producing derecheo and rolled into Wisconsin, downing numerous trees in Menomonie along the I-94 corridor. Again, had those storms formed an hour earlier and 30 miles ot the west, the outcome could have been much worse in terms of damage for the densely populated metro area.

Highest dew point in 3 years in metro:

The dew point reached 78 degrees in the metro Wednesday. That was the highest reading in 3 years, since June 26, 2007. It's also within 3 degrees of the highest reading ever in the Twin Cities which is 81 degrees on July 30th, 1999.

To illustrate how rare it is to have dew points that high in Minnesota, the dew point has only reached 78 degrees or higher 114 hours since 1945!

Dry break, then severe Saturday?

We'll enjoy some free air conditioning today with dew points down into the comfy 50s in Minnesota. Temperatures will still be warm in the mid to upper 80s, but it will feel a whole lot more tolerable. Temps may push 90 Friday and Saturday, and some humidity will creep back into the picture by then.

The next frontal system may trigger more severe storms in Minnesota late Saturday.

More heat is still on the way for later next week.

Enjoy our quiet weather respite.

PH

Comment on this post

Oppressive evening heat: Storms fade

Posted at 3:35 PM on July 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner (7 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Update 5:30pm:

The Twin Cities reached the highest heat index value of the year so far at 5pm tonight. The temperature at MSP was 91 with a tropical dew point of 78. That makes an oppressive heat index of 106 degrees in the metro!

It appears the line of storms west of the metro may fade this evening, but a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect. If storms do not develop, NWS may cancel portions of the watch early this evening. Most of the tornadic and severe weather dynamics have shifted east into Wisconsin tonight.

A cool front will pass thorough later tonight bringing relief in the form of cooler temps and much lower dew points in the 50s by morning.

Stay cool!

PH

Update 4:45pm:

New severe thunderstorm watch includes the Twin Cities until 10 pm tonight. One more line of storms may deveop and move toward the metro this evening.

More damage reports from storms moving through Wisconsin, including trees down in Menomonie.

PH

MPX: Spring Valley [Pierce Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:20 PM CDT -- numerous trees down from spring valley east to the dunn co border

MPX: Menomonie [Dunn Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:25 PM CDT -- trees down from the pierce co boarder east to menomonie.

MPX: 2 Ssw Menomonie [Dunn Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:35 PM CDT -- 4 inch diameter trees down onto power lines.

MPX: Menomonie [Dunn Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:30 PM CDT -- many trees blown down in north memomonie. street blocked by downed trees. some trees downed onto power lines. time estimated.

Update 4:15pm:

Tornado watch cancelled for the metro, but other wathces remain in effect.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm tonight

Tornado watch for Wisconsin until 7pm

Impressive GOES 1km vis image of thunderstorms complexes mushrooming over the area.

MPX: 2 Nne Haugen [Barron Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M4.40 INCH at 04:00 PM CDT -- total rainfall for today

MPX: Hastings [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:45 PM CDT -- 2 ft diameter tree snapped in half at 19th and vermillion st. 1 ft diameter tree sheared in half and blocking fraser st.

Update 3:40pm:

All clear in the metro for now.

Storms moving east through SE Mn & Wicsonsin. Another batch in central Minnesota will have to be watched.

That may be it for severe weather for the metro and much of southern Minnesota, but we'll have to keep one eye out for any further development until the front comes through late tonight.

PH

Meanwhile, storm reports continue to flow into the weather lab...

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Benton, Stearns [MN] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 402 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD SOUTH OF HOLDINGFORD AROUND 355 PM. THIS WALL CLOUD WAS LOCATED NEAR ST STEPHEN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST CLOUD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

MPX: Baldwin [St. Croix Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:20 PM CDT -- 2 semi trailers blown off road near baldwin. injuries reported. trees also down in area.

MPX: Hampton [Dakota Co, MN] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:45 PM CDT -- trees and powerlines down at intersection of hwy 47 and 52.

Update 3pm:

Tornado warnings continue in the sotueast metro and western Wisconsin. There have been reports of tornadoes on the ground and damage.

There are also tornadic storms in central Minnesota.

Reports below.

PH

MPX: Boyceville [Dunn Co, WI] law enforcement reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:24 PM CDT -- reported by intersection of county rd d and x near county line.

MPX: Woodville [St. Croix Co, WI] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:00 PM CDT -- tree limbs in excess of 4 inches down

MPX: 2 S Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] amateur radio reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:15 PM CDT --

MPX: 3 Ssw Sauk Centre [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 03:10 PM CDT -- rapidly rotating wall cloud reported.

MPX: 5 Sw Glenwood [Pope Co, MN] public reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 02:42 PM CDT -- public report of funnel cloud on highway 28 between glenwood and starbuck airport near lake minnewaska. relayed by county dispatch.

MPX: Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH at 02:28 PM CDT -- measured at lakeville airport

MPX: 1 N River Falls [St. Croix Co, WI] emergency mngr reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 02:58 PM CDT -- at hwy 35 co rd u. a trained spotter also reported funnel at county trunk m and apollo rd.

MPX: New Market [Scott Co, MN] public reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 02:45 PM CDT -- hail cracked windshield of car.

MPX: 4 S Farmington [Dakota Co, MN] public reports TORNADO at 02:40 PM CDT -- relayed by faa employee.

MPX: 2 Se Credit River [Scott Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:23 PM CDT -- camper rolled over at intersection of hwy 8 and 91.

MPX: 3 N New Market [Scott Co, MN] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:23 PM CDT -- trees and branches down at intersction of co rd 8 and 91.

mpxchat 2010/07/14 2:45 PM iembot MPX: 2 Nw Randolph [Dakota Co, MN] storm chaser reports TORNADO at 02:43 PM CDT --

MPX: Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 02:40 PM CDT -- tornado reported by law enforcement in southern lakeville. another report of a tornado from 2 miles s of lakeville at intersection of interstate 35 and hwy 19. vehicle blown off road in that location.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
211 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 209 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF NEW MARKET...OR ABOUT 22
MILES NORTH OF FARIBAULT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

Update 2:15pm:

Heavy storms developing in eastern metro and south heading into Dakota and Goodhue counties. be alert for downpours, hail, lightning and possible damaging winds.

PH

Update 1:45pm:

Twin Cities NWS issues forecast discussion calling for cap (a warm layer limiting T-Storm development so far) to break around 4pm. Explosive T-Storm growth could occur when the cap breaks, with storms quickly turning severe. Text below.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...CAPE...INSTABILITY IN THE
3000-5000 J/KG RANGE WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BE SEVERE. THIS WILL
NEED TO MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. FRONT WILL CLEAR
KEAU BY 04-5Z...WHEN ALL TSRA SHOULD BE DONE.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE VCNTY
OF THE FIELD STILL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT...BASED ON
FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RUC NOW SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AT MSP AROUND 21Z. HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT IF THE FIELD
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT...BUT DENSE COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAVOC IN SOME OF THE
DEPARTURE/ARRIVAL GATES.

Update 1:15pm:

Storms are beginning to refire north of the metro. We may see a line extend south into the metro in the next hour or two. Additional stomrs may also deveop west.

Here's a radar archive through 1pm as the morning storms raced through north of the metro and caused damage in NW Wisconsin.

SPC is still watching this area for development, but clouds have limitied development as we discussed this morning with Cathy Wurzer on Morning Edition.

From SPC:

ATTENDANT
CLOUDS ARE LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA EXCEPT
FOR IA INTO SRN MN. PERSISTENT ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
REDEVELOP OVER SRN MN.

PH

Update 11am:

Duluth NWS receiving reports of widespread wind damage in the NW Wisconsin lake country and in Cloquet and Pine City. Derecheo in progress.

DLH: Grantsburg [Burnett Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.12 INCH at 10:05 AM CDT -- 1.12 inches of rain in 20-25 minutes.

DLH: 2 Ne Hayward [Sawyer Co, WI] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M49 MPH at 10:39 AM CDT -- 43 knot peak wind at hayward.

DLH: 7 W Cloquet [Carlton Co, MN] public reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:12 AM CDT -- large trees down near big lake.

DLH: Trego [Washburn Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:25 AM CDT -- trees down across washburn county...particularly in the trego area and just north of spooner.

DLH: Webster [Burnett Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:00 AM CDT -- in oakland township in burnett county. large oak tree blown down. 60 mph winds estimated. 1.4 inches of rain in 30 minutes.

DLH: 3 S Hayward [Sawyer Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:38 AM CDT -- trees down.

DLH: Siren [Burnett Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:02 AM CDT -- burnett county sheriff dispatch reports trees blown down across the county.

DLH: 5 Se Pine City [Pine Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:32 AM CDT -- tree branches down along highway 70.

DLH: Webb Lake [Burnett Co, WI] amateur radio reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.00 INCH at 10:31 AM CDT -- 1 inch of rain in 20 minutes.

DLH: Cloquet [Carlton Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:25 AM CDT -- many tree limbs down...power lines down...and a few trees downed in and around the city of cloquet.

Update: 9am

Tornado Watch issued until 4pm includes metro and much of eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

(click for bigger image and cities)

We don't say this often from the weather lab, but today is one of those days to keep a close eye on your plans and kids, and be ready to seek shelter if severe storms approach your location.

All the necessary ingredients appear to be coming together for what could be a significant severe weather and tornado outbreak from the Twin Cities area south and east. Here are some of the parameters that are coming together today.

1) Deep tropical moisture:

Dew points are in the 70s and may approach Amazon Jungle levels near 80 degrees today.

2) Unstable air mass:

A cold front and cooler air aloft will create rapidly rising air to generate storms easily today.

3) Strong wind shear:

Winds are turning with height in the atmosphere today. This means storms will rotate, and strong low level wind shear means that rotation can translate to ground level. That's an ideal situation for producing tornadoes. SPC is concerned about the potential for strong (EF2 and higher) tornadoes in Minnesota and Wisconsin today.

Helicity forecast today shows highest tornado threat from the Twin Cities south and east. (Image: Twisterdata.com)

4) Cold air aloft:

Violent updrafts within storms over 100 mph will carry hail high into the atmosphere today. There is the potential for golf ball to even baseball sized chunks of hail falling form the sky this afternoon.

5) Cold front approaching:

The timing of an approaching cold front means that storms may explode right overhead in the Twin Cities metro this today.

The bottom line is expect severe weather today. The greatest threat for tornadoes appears to be from the Twin Cities area south and east. This includes Mankato, Owatonna, Waseca, Northfield, Red Wing, Rochester, Albert Lea, La Crosse and Eau Claire.

Expect storms today to contain the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and flooding rains as they move through.

Here are some links to track storms today.

-Twin Cities NWS
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest warnings map

PH

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Weather Lab Forecast Discussion

Posted at 4:55 PM on July 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather

There is mixed news as the picture becomes a little clearer looking at severe weather potential through Wednesday. The frontal timing may preclude severe storms in some areas. But the potential for damaging storms still exists in some areas of the Upper Midwest.

Here's the deal, these situations are always complex and this one is no exception. They say timing is everything, and the timing of the approaching cold front will be everything when it comes to where severe weather may occur.

Here's what we think we know, and what we don't know at the Huttner Weather Lab.

What we think we know:

-It looks like we will be storm free in the metro and most of southern and eastern Minnesota this evening. If nothing pops, it should be a great but breezy and increasingly humid summer evening and overnight. Dew points will rise through the 60s in most areas and into the 70s in southwest Minnesota.

Dew points on the rise with sticky 70s nosing into southwest Minnesota.

-The first real wave of severe storms developed pretty much as expected in eastern North Dakota today. An MCS is evolving and will roll east into northwest Minnesota tonight. If the system persists tonight as they sometimes do... and if it turns right down I-94 following the highest moisture values and instability...it could roll through Alexandria and Brainerd and St. Cloud overnight and possibly survive the trip into the Twin Cities area toward morning.

GOES IR image shows storm complex developing over eastern North Dakota late Tuesday.

-The biggest risk for severe weather overnight will run from the Grand Forks and Fargo areas down into northern and central Minnesota. Think Fergus Falls, Wadena, Bemidji, Brainerd and St. Cloud.

-If the complex persists and strengtens overnight it has the potential to become a derecheo event with widspread hail and damaging winds in the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin.

What we don't know yet:

-How long will the overnight convective complex persist? The latest thinking is that is may go strong to possibly severe until after midnight into western and central Minnesota, then weaken a bit as it approaches eastern MN (and the metro?) toward morning.

-How much debris could cover will linger and limit heating tomorrow? The latest thinking is that we'll have some debris clouds around in the morning, and that may limit surface heating in eastern Minnesota.

-Where will the front be early tomorrow PM, and where will the next batch of storms fire? Current thinking is that the front will be right over the Twin Cities area around lunchtime tomorrow. This may mean the when storms do develop tomorrow early PM, they fire right over the Twin Cities...or develop just east of the metro and clobber western Wisconsin.

If there's enough debris around through the morning, the metro COULD escape widespread severe weather. If the sun is out early..look out. Storms (potentially tornadic?) could blow right over the Twin Cities around lunchtime.

Wherever storms do deveop Wednesday, there is sufficent low level wind shear to spawn tornadoes. SPC is monitoring the risk, and may upgrade parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin to a moderate risk for severe weather.

Keep an eye on the sky overnight in northwest and central Minnesota, and in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we head through the day Wednesday!

PH

Severe threat increases

Posted at 8:44 AM on July 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Baseball, Heat, Severe weather

Keep an eye on the sky the next 36 hours in the Upper Midwest. Several ingredients are coming together for what could be a significant outbreak of severe weather.

At least two waves of severe (and possible tornadic) storms may rumble across the upper Midwest by Wednesday evening. After a lead batch of mostly non-severe showers and T-Storms today in the eastern Dakotas, a second wave of more potent storms should develop this afternoon in the central Dakotas and come racing east into Minnesota tonight. That wave may form an MCS, or mesoscale convective system that may race east with bow echoes and the potential for damaging winds.

The favored locations for storms Wednesday will shift east, the question is how far. If debris from tonight's MCS hangs over eastern Minnesota tomorrow and the front slides past the Twin Cities, the storms may develop over Wisconsin. If not, they could blow right over the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Stay tuned to your favorite severe weather sources through Wednesday for a very changeable forecast scenario.

Major Midwest heat wave next week?

All signs point to the potential for a major Midwest heat wave next week. The Bermuda High, a strong ridge of high pressure looks like it will set up shop over the central USA and amplify starting about next Tuesday.

If the forecast models are right, the central USA could see several days...maybe two weeks of searing heat and humidity. Places like Kansas City, St, Louis, Des Moines and Chicago have the potential to reach 100 degrees.

Minnesota looks to lie on the northern edge of the heat wave. We could see more than a a week of highs well into the 90s, with dew points in the tropical 70s. That's a dangerous level of heat and humidity, and the long duration could become a major news story in the latter half of July.

Get your air conditioner tuned up and get ready for a blast of heat starting next week.

Beautiful Red Wing:

The Huttner Weather Lab had the pleasure of making the trip to beautiful Red Wing last evening for my son's playoff baseball game. Even as a native Minnesotan, I had never made the trip to Red Wing, and I'm glad I did. The town is absolutely lovely with the bluffs and river scenery.

Downtown Red Wing street scene.
(Photos by Paul Huttner. click for bigger images)

Mississippi River in Red Wing.

Red Wing is known for Red Wing Shoes and Red Wing pottery among other things.

Closer look at the bluff at the east end of town.

The historic St. James Hotel overlooks the Mississippi River.

The drive from the Twin Cities is equally wonderful with hills, open vistas and fertile colorful fields along the way. The landscape near the town of Miesville is particularly beautiful. And the ball park for the Miesville Mudhens is visible as you pass through town.

Oh yes, and my son's 14 year old Minnetonka travelling baseball team won the game 15-4. The whole team played great and our son Luke started the game and was the winning pitcher so congrats to the team on a great performance!

PH (proud baseball dad!)

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Tornado Watch for southern Minnesota

Posted at 4:02 PM on June 25, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

A Tornado Watch is in effect for southern Minnesota until midnight CDT. A Tornado Warning based on Doppler has already been issued for an area that includes Clara City in southwest Minnesota.

Stay abreast of developing weather as thunderstorms continue to blossom and strengthen. Be prepared to move to shelter if a warning is issued.

NWS Watch and Warning information from Chanhassen Office.

CE

Severe weather threat update

Posted at 12:49 PM on June 25, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Debris clouds left over from early morning thunderstorms that doused some sections of northern Minnesota have inhibited the daytime heating. However there remains potential for severe thunderstorms for southern Minnesota later this afternoon into the evening. Keep your guard up. It appears that the Twin Cities metro area may be on the northern edge of this outbreak of storms.

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center as of 1230PM CDT:
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS.

HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS AFTER THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LINE. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE WIND GUSTS MAY BE EXTREME...WITH SPEEDS AT OR GREATER THAN 80 MPH POSSIBLE.

Severe Weather Awareness

Posted at 6:17 AM on June 25, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Severe storm warnings have already been issued this morning for parts of central Minneasota. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe storms for southern Minnesota for today. Please be sky aware and be prepared to respond if a warning is issued for your community.

Here is a clip from the Storm Prediction Centers Severe Weather Outlook:
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AMIDST VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES EXISTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

Track the severe weather from the Chanhassen National Weather Service Office.
CE

Documented June 17th tornadoes

Posted at 3:48 PM on June 23, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Most recent image of tornadoes documented by NOAA Weather Service from June 17th.
Details of the tornadoes.

It is not surprising to learn that the number of documented tornadoes is down from the original thirty-six reported as the event was underway. Storm chasers and spotters were well ahead of this big tornado day in Minnesota. I'm sure there were reports of the same tornado touching down just from different viewing locations.

This was not the case very early in my career. When I was in Indianapolis one of my first assignments was to document the tornado tracks in Indiana. Upon my arrival in the Circle City I had a stack of newspaper clippings several inches tall on my desk. All from stories written about March 1976 storms.

Using a manual type-writer and sifting through the numerous reports of citizens filed in the local papers I complied the historical information without the benefit of a ground survey. Many, like the majority of tornadoes today, were F0 or F1s.

On a Sunday in early June 1990 I was working at Indianapolis when a tornao outbreak exploded before our eyes. My best guess is that we had more than fifty reports of tornadoes in the state. By the time we had completed the field surveys, at least on the storms we were aware actually hapened, the number of tornadoes was reduced to about three dozen. Here's the NWS story of the June 2-3, 1990 outbreak.

Finally, I'll share just how far we come with communication and observations of weather. I recall one instance out of rural south central Indiana were I didn't know a tornado had occurred until a weekly newsclipping showed up on my desk about the storm, which had produced damage several days previous.. No one was injured, but I'm sure there was a good yarn shared at the local cafe.

CE

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Looking for the trigger

Posted at 7:02 PM on June 22, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Water vapor satellite image from 645pm CDT. The brighter the colors, including the blue mean colder/higher cloud tops.

After heating up to the first ninety degree day in the Twin Cities since May 29th we have plenty of fuel for Mother Nature to ingnite tonight.

Examining the late afternoon water vapor satellite image it appears that the missing piece of the severe weather puzzle is showing up in western Nebraska.

Thunderstorms are more likely to fire up after dark and spawn locally heavy rain for parts of southern Minnesota. The risk of severe weather also remains.
CE

Satellite mid afternoon

Posted at 3:25 PM on June 22, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Visible satellite image from mid afternoon.

Note the line of showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of Alexandria, Minnesota. Keeping an eye out for further development and changes in intensity during the heat of the day.
CE

Moderate risk remains

Posted at 2:55 PM on June 22, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

Tornado probability as defined by the Storm Prediction Center for this evening and overnight is around ten percent. There is a higher probability of straightline damaging winds and large hail, in the range of 40 to 45 percent.

Safety tips for tornadoes:
Monitor two sources for information, including NOAA Weather Radio.
Plan on where you will locate if a warning is issued. Lowest floor away from windows and under furniture if possible to protect against falling or flying debris.
In an appartment, the stairwell on the lowest floor is one of the best shelters.
If you can't make it from your appartment try to get under the bed or a behind a piece of heavy furniture. The bathroom or and interior closest also offers some protection.
Place a flashlight where you can easily access it if the power goes out.
Have access to a working portable radio.
Phone someone to inform them if you believe they are disconnected from a source of weather information.

Watching and waiting

Posted at 2:11 PM on June 22, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

The atmosphere continues to heat up this afternoon with high low level moisture in place. What we are looking for at this time is the trigger to ignite thunderstorms later today.

Conditions that will come into play are the unstable air, low level shear of the winds (turning from southeast to west as you ascend the atmosphere), a ripple of a middle level pressure trough, and an upper level wind maximum.

Here is the wording on the latest thinking from the Storm Prediction Center as of noon:

THE SEVERE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

ONE OR TWO OF THESE CLUSTERS COULD BECOME LONG-LASTING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY EAST INTO PARTS OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.
CE

Quiet now - becoming volatile

Posted at 10:39 AM on June 22, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

Visible satellite image from mid morning.

Checking the latest weather parameters it appears that this extensive sunshine will broil over into a very unstable airmass this afternoon. Strong thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and possibility of tornadoes will become more likely from mid afternoon into the evening.

The best chance for severe weather will be from about Montevideo to Hutchinson to Northfield and points south. However, the Twin Cities is in the threat area.

Keep your hear to the radio and an eye to the sky as the afternoon progesses. I'm starting to feel something bad in the air.

here's your go to page to get a heads up from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

Updates throughout the day and on ATC this afternoon.
CE

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More on the EF tornado scale

Posted at 2:58 PM on June 21, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

This image is courtesy of NOAA of the 199 F5 tornado that leveled the southwest suburbs of of Oklahoma City. EF scale established in February 2007.

The National Weather Service, working with experts skilled in engineering, developed an ehancement to document the historical damage category of the original Fujita (F) scale. It was not a surprisie to learn that Dr. Ted Fujita had anticpated a need to go beyond his original reserach work of the tornado intensity scale first used in 1971. His extensive field work was ground breaking on documenting the severity of tornado damage.

You may be interested in learning that the original tornado scale also included an assignment of what was called a P scale, referenced after Dr. Alan Pearson who was chief of the Storm Prediction Center at the time the F scale was implemented. The P scale was associated with the path and width of the tornado track.

NOAA meteorologists, working for the National Weather Service, are often accompanied by research experts from universities with departments of meteorology during assessments following strong, EF3 or greater tornadoes. A close inspection of the structure, not unlike a crime scene investigation, is conducted to determine strurctural integrity of a destroyed building. Cars airborne from a twister, wrapped around a tree, can be an indicator of winds of 200 mph or greater.

See more on the enhanced Fujita scale. There are a number of indicators used to make a final determination of the tornadoes intensity. in the case of the Oklahoma City tornado, the Severe Storm Laboratory had a Doppler on Wheels postioned to measure winds of greater than 300 mph in the Doppler velocity data.

Weather psychology 101

Posted at 6:28 AM on June 21, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather

I offered a mantra at the National Weather Service of a mission to tell people what we know when we know it. The sooner the better. There was a natural tendency to always wait for more confirming information. But if we had some knowledge of changing weather to share, we should promptly share it.

In the case of last weeks tornadoes, I was struck by the news stories of word of mouth warning of the approaching storms. Rural area residents were tuned into weather, already aware that storms had pounded parts of eastern North Dakota. It was old fashion communication of information of impending severe weather.

Advance warning from the National Weather Service allowed sufficient time for others to pass along the breaking weather alerts. In some cases, individuals raced to inform faimly and friends that a tornado was headed their way. Not surprisingly, I heard similar stories when I was a member on the NWS service assessment team of the 1999 Oklahoma City tornadoes.

While I didn't see many comments on warning sirens and NOAA Weather Radio, I know they were a part of the process as well as the broadcast media staying on top of developing weather.

I'm a believer that neighbor knowing neighbor and watching out for each other enhances the warning program. Sometimes I wonder how the warning process might be just slightly different in urban and suburbia regions, both at home and office.

On the day of the summer solistice we will experience warm and humid conditions. Some areas will get heavy downpours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday for northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. There should be a break in the thunderstorms and humidity at mid week.

The six to ten day temperature outlook indicates very warm weather continuing through the rest of June.
CE