Updraft Category Archive: Phenology

Overnight auroras dazzle; 70s today, rain tonight, Early lilac bloom

Posted at 8:40 AM on April 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Phenology

Impressive auroras - sky show over Minnesota last night

70s today over southern Minnesota

Next rain chances move in tonight

Incredible auroras:

It was a pretty good sky show last night over Minnesota. A burst of auroras lit up skies in the darkened areas Monday night, with auroras reported from Grand Portage to Fergus Falls, and from Michigan to Colorado.

Check out the amazing video from Douglas Kiesling shot near Fergus Falls, MN.

Aurora Borealis, AKA Northern Lights time-lapse video from just northwest of Fergus Falls, MN as the geomagnetic storm peaked.

Shot with a 10mm wide angle lens as the Auroras filled the sky to make it look like it was on fire.

There is still a chance for more auroras tonight, though it appears we may be dodging some clouds and showers.

Here are some good places to keep up on all things aurora borealis.

-Spaceweather.com
-Astro Bob

Almost like spring: 70s and more rain ahead

Source: Twin Cities NWS
(click to enlarge)

Today brings a mix of sun and clouds to Minnesota, and milder temps. A few bank thermometers should tickly 70 degrees in southern Minnesota today, and again tomorrow.

The next low pressure wave creates enough instability to trigger a few showers and possibly a thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning.

Source: Iowa State University

Early lilac & other blooms this year:

Our record march jump started many blooms in Minnesota this year. In fact, this is one of the earliest lilac blooms I can recall.

April lilacs at the Weather Lab
Photo by Paul Huttner-MPR News

Historically, the first lilac blooms typically come to Minnesota in the first weeks of May. But the date of the first lilac bloom has been moving steadily up during the past several decades, according to my conversations with phenologists like long time observer Jim Gilbert.

Source: Project Budburst

According to dedicated observers like Jim, tracking changing bud and bloom times is one of the best ways to document climate change. The plants don't lie, they bud and bloom when conditions are right. Lilac blooms have moved as much as two weeks earlier since the late 1970s in Minnesota.

Check out "Project Budburst" for more info on what's blooming, and where.

PH

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Spring fever! "Meltmageddon" features 50s today south; 40s north;

Posted at 8:30 AM on March 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Phenology, Winter/spring 2011

60 possible in southern Minnesota today!

50s likely today in metro!

69 = record high for the Twin Cities today (we won't get there)

40s for Brainerd, Duluth, Fargo & International Falls

2" snow depth this morning at MSP Airport

16" snow depth at Duluth!

"Meltmageddon!"

Get ready for a "windshield washer warning" today. There will be a growing number of puddles in Minnesota today. Some may be as big as houses by late afternoon.

Our major warm up is here, the only question is how warm will it get?

The answer lies mostly in how much snow is on the ground where you live.

Snow cover plays a huge role in temperatures this time of year. As several factors favor quick warm ups....snow cover is the one factor that can thwart big temp rises.

As warm air blows in from the south, the snow cover acts to cool the air it comes into contact with. We call this "air mass modification."

You can feel that effect when you pull an ice tray out of the freezer, and hold your hand just over the top of it. Feel the cold? So does the atmosphere.

If not for snow, we could hit 60 today. A good strong south wind blowing over bare ground in Iowa should help boost temps into the lower 50s in southern Minnesota. The deepest snowpack of the season should keep temps in the 40s up north.

Fog tonight?

The snow that melts today should release additional moisture into the lower atmosphere. That could mean some thick fog as winds die down tonight.

Fire danger south!

One thing we can thank our new snow cover for is reduced fire danger in Minnesota....for now.

To the south, it's still bone dry in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa. red Flag warnings are flying today for high fire danger.

The combination of dry bare ground, warm temps, low humidity and high winds will create explosive fire growth conditions today to our south.

Project Budburst?

Okay so maybe it's too early to start talking about buds bursting in Minnesota just yet. But it wont be long before you se those crocus bloom and daffodil shoots on the sunny side of your house!

Here's a great way to get involved in reporting some of your backyard "phenology." It's called "Project Budburst"

You can register and become part of a network of amateur phenologists who reports bloom times, leaf out, fall color changes etc. into a national database.

The data from "budburst" has already provided some interesting trends.

For example in the Chicago area, many spring plants are blooming days or weeks earlier than they did just decades ago.

Compared to the 1955-1994 period in Chicago, here are some bloom times in the last 5 years according to "Budburst" data:

Forsythia blooming 24 days earlier

Lilacs blooming 17 days earlier

You can hear more about shifting spring bloom times here from Chicago Public Radio.

You can check out Project Budburst here!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

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Weather Lab Woolly Bear: Average winter?

Posted at 5:05 PM on September 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: La Nina, Phenology, Winter

I came across this little guy today on the Huttner Weather Lab driveway.

Does the season's first woolly bear caterpillar have a message about the upcoming winter?

Woolly bear on the Huttner Weather Lab deck today.
(Photo by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger image)

According to weather folklore, woolly bears can predict the severity the coming winter. The only fly in the woolly bears ointment is that science does not support the notion of the woolly bear as a predictor of winter weather.

The theory in folklore goes like this: The wider the brown band on woolly bears, the milder the winter. A narrow brown band with more black means a more severe winter.

Scientists have studied woolly bears to try and correlate the thickness of the bands with winter weather. The results show that woolly bears have bands of different lengths in the same year, in the same area. So it appears there is no way to use the woolly bear as a predictor of winter forecast.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for winter favors chances for a colder than average winter in much of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Water temperatures in tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled this summer, and La Nina conditions have taken over. CPC's La Nina advisory forecasts a moderate strength La Nina this winter.

La Nina winters tend to statistically favor average to colder than average conditions in Minnesota, along with higher than average snowfall in the north.

I moved our resident woolly bear onto the weather lab deck for a closer look and a few photos. He was cooperative, but seemed ready to move along after a short time, so I put him back where I found him after the mug shots.

Depending on how this guy stretched out it looked to my eye like he had a medium width brown band, with plenty of black. The non scientific folklore forecast would seem to my eye to indicate an average winter ahead. What do you think?

The Twin Cities recorded a below average 40.7" of snowfall last winter, and recorded the first snowless March in modern records. Average annual snowfall for the metro is a respectable 55.9" for the 30 year period from 1971-2000.

Just seeing the woolly bears move around this time of year as they seek out their winter homes is a sure sign that fall is here, and that winter is (gulp!) around the corner.

PH

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Return of La Nina may mean a "real" winter

Posted at 4:50 PM on August 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Aurora, Climate, Northern lights, Phenology

Soak up all the heat and humidity summer has left folks. La Nina is back.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center officially confirmed today what meteorologists and climatologists have been watching fo a while, La Nina returned in July.

La Nina is the cool phase of what's known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean fluctuate every 3 to 5 years between the warm El Nino phase and cool La Nina episodes. The latest readings show sea surface temperatures around -1.0 degree Celsius in much of the tropical Pacific.

La Nina has widespread impacts around different parts of the globe. It can enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Though the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, The National Hurricane Center today updated its seasonal forecast to continue the prediction of an active season.

For Minnesota and much of the USA, the effects of La Nina are most pronounced in winter. La Nina winters have a statistical bias toward being colder than average in the Upper Midwest. Winters can also trend snowier in Minnesota, especially when compared to El Nino winters like last year. The Twin Cities received 40.7" of snowfall last year. The 30 year average is 55.9".

Cricketometer:

Have you noticed how loud the crickets are these nights? It seems as if a cricket boom has hit the weather lab. The deafening roar can be beautiful to some, and annoying to others.

Female (left) an Male (right) crickets image by Jim Mason. Courtesy Great Plains Nature Center web site.

No matter what you think of crickets sounding off at night, you can use the little buggers to approximate the temperature. Here's how:

Count the number of "chirps" in 15 seconds and add 37. That should give you a close approximation of the current temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. This is a fun exercise for kids of all ages on a warm summer night.

My favorite local phenologist Jim Gilbert used to say that cicadas would only sing (sounds more like screaming to me!) when the air temperature reached about 80 degrees. I guess they like the warmth to get those "cicada pipes" in action.

Cicada stands guard Photo credit: Bruce Marlin

One more shot at northern lights?

There may be one last shot of solar wind headed for the earth tonight according to spaceweather.com. Keep an eye out if you are out late tonight for possible auroras in the northern sky. Best viewing is away from lights looking north.

PH

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