Updraft Category Archive: NOAA

Weather opportunities abound

Posted at 4:54 PM on February 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: NOAA, Severe weather

There is a bevy of great opportunities for fellow weather geeks to get their fix in the coming weeks.

If you're into weather, or maybe know a neighbor or budding young weather enthusiast who is looking for the chance to spread their "weather wings" a bit, check out the following list of events.

Phenology & Weather Observers Gathering at Wolf Ridge ELC
in Finland, MN March 4-6, 2011

Here's the rundown from the folks at Wolf Ridge.

Join us as we discuss the phenology and weather of the region, how we can observe and record phenology of the local flora and fauna and how to use phenology in our teaching. This will be a great opportunity to meet other phenologists, weather observers, teachers, and interested citizens.

This second annual Phenology & Weather Observers Gathering will take place on the weekend of March 4-6, 2011 at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center; Finland, Minnesota."

Conference Agenda Topics Include (there may be additions to this list):

Phenology From Space
Weather Recording
Make your own Forecast
Tools to teach Weather
Snow Rules - North Shore Snow Research
Minnesota Forest Ecology Changes
Sky Warn Training
General Phenology Record Keeping
Phenology as Seen in Birds
Phenology as Seen in Butterflies
How to Use Phenology in Teaching
Photography as a means of Recording Phenology
Sharing Experiences with Each Other

Metro SKYWARN training classes begin February 21st.

If you've always wanted to be a severe weather spotter, here's your chance to get training.

Here's the info from Twin Cities NWS, and from Metro SKYWARN.

15th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop, March 22-23, 2011

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities and the Twin Cities AMS will be hosting the 15th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop. The conference will be held March 22-23, 2011 at the the University of St. Thomas' St. Paul Campus. The conference will run from approximately 8 AM - 5 PM on both days. Details on registration and lodging, along with other conference information, can be found online here.

The conference will be a combination of invited speakers and submitted presentations. There will be a poster session in addition to the oral presentations. Topics will include, but will not be limited to, prediction of severe local storms, operational techniques for severe storm forecasting, storm structure and organization, societal impacts and dissemination of hazardous weather information, and climatological patterns for severe local storms.

2011 Student Volunteer & Student Career Experience Programs

Details here from the Twin Cities NWS.

Applications for Summer Volunteer Positions at the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Chanhassen, MN are being accepted through February 28, 2011. Please click here or on the image to the left for details. If you have additional questions regarding the Summer Volunteer Program at NWS Chanhassen, MN, contact Tom Hultquist.

Applications for the 2011 NWS Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) are being accepted through February 28, 2011. Please click here or on the image to the left for details. If you have additional questions regarding the SCEP program, contact NWS.scep-reply@noaa.gov.

There are plenty of opportunities to get involved and increase you "weather IQ this year!

PH

GFS Model: -25 in metro Friday morning?

Posted at 5:33 PM on January 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Cold, NOAA

"So how cold will it get this week Paul?

That's the mantra question from friends and my colleagues at MPR this week.

Plenty cold is the answer....and maybe the coldest in many years by Friday morning. One wonders if you can really feel the difference between -20 and -25 anyway...or if you'd ever want to!

The GFS model is cranking out a temperature of -25 for MSP Airport Friday morning.

If we plunge to -25 in the metro Friday morning, it would be the coldest air in about 15 years. A quick check of records shows that last time temperature plunged to -25 in the Twin Cities was February 2, 1996.

Here are some factors going into the forecast for this week's nose dive, which should bottom out Friday morning around 7 am.

1) Current temperatures in central Canada. Temperatures "upstream" in the arctic air mass have been running between -30 and -45 degrees around Yellowknife and Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories. Temps colder than -30 were as close to Minnesota as Lake Winnipeg Tuesday morning.

Bottom line, the air mass is plenty cold enough to plunge temperatures to -20 to -30 in Minnesota this week.

2) Air mass trajectories: It looks like the coldest core of the arctic air mass will pass through northeast Minnesota and Ontario Friday morning. That should place the coldest temps up north. (can you say Embarrass?) The Twin Cities will be on the edge of the coldest air to the north.

3) High pressure center: The "inner isobar" of arctic high pressure is forecast to pass right over Minnesota and the Twin Cities Friday morning around 6am. That's an ideal time for calm air, clear skies and fresh deep snow cover to generate "maximum radiational cooling."

If no clouds sneak in from the west (due in later Friday), that should allow temperatures to reach the maximum cooling potential of the arctic air mass around 7 am Friday morning. (Oh joy!)

4) Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect: On clear mornings with light northerly winds, there is a very noticeable (pronounced) UHI effect at MSP Airport, which lies just south of downtown Minneapolis. Studies have shown temperatures can be as much as 10 degrees (or more) warmer in UHI's than in the surrounding "countryside."

It could easily be -25 in the suburbs and -15 to -20 at MSP at the same moment.

In reality, it probably doesn't make a huge practical difference whether we reach -17 or -25 Friday...it's going to be really cold either way. But Minnesotans love to know...for bragging rights if nothing else!

Right now I'm leaning toward a low of about -22 at MSP Airport Friday morning, with temps of -25 in the outer suburbs and -30s up north.

Stay tuned as we tweak the forecast temps of the incoming air mass this week.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 18th:
(Data from Weather Underground)

The "Deep Snow" full moon arrives at 3:21pm Wednesday.

NOAA plane over the Pacific boosts data for forecast models:

NOAA aircraft is flying missions to gather data over the North Pacific this winter. The plane gathers real time data, then feeds it into the forecast model initial conditions for the usually "data poor" North Pacific.

Here's the write up from NOAA:

"NOAA has dispatched one of its highly specialized aircraft to collect atmospheric data over the North Pacific Ocean to enhance forecasts of winter storms for the entire North American continent.

NOAA's high-altitude, twin-engine Gulfstream IV-SP jet will be stationed at Yokota Air Force Base in Japan through February before repositioning to Honolulu in March. From these locations, the aircraft will be tasked by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction -- a division of NOAA's National Weather Service -- to collect information such as wind speed and direction, pressure, temperature and humidity. The data will be sent via satellite to global operational weather forecasting centers and fed into sophisticated computer forecast models.

"By expanding our reach to Japan, we are able to gather data upstream of winter storms, thereby gaining more lead time for emergency managers and responders to prepare for the impacts of severe winter weather on lives and property," said meteorologist and flight director Jack Parrish with the NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations."

I've often talked about how the models can't get a good picture and "lock on" to incoming winter storms until they reach the North American surface grid and upper air (weather balloon) network. That often leaves less than 48 hours of good, solid model data before winter storms hit Minnesota. The new data may help improve model forecasts on winter storm before the reach the Pacific coast...and maybe help forecasters in Minnesota.

PH

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