Updraft Category Archive: La Nina

Snowy pattern ahead? March/April critical for 2012 drought prospects

Posted at 6:12 PM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, La Nina, Spring 2012, Winter 2011-12

Week of February 20th GFS hinting at possible snow systems for Minnesota

1.51" GFS liquid output for MSP week of Feb 20th

14.9" season snowfall so far at MSP

16.5" average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season at MSP

96.2% of Minnesota now in "moderate" to "severe" drought!

March snowfall potential critical for easing "hydrologic" drought

April rainfall potential critical for easing "agricultural" drought

Snowy pattern change ahead?

It's too early to be definitive on this, but there are some encouraging signs for Minnesotans who want snow. Our desert dry winter doldrums may be about the end.

The upper air pattern is showing signs of becoming more "chaotic" in the next two weeks. Translation? We may finally get some snow storms passing in or near Minnesota.

Much of the USA has been mired in a persistent west-northwest upper air flow pattern this winter. This has brought mild air, and also little moisture.

The GFS model is advertising a more west-southwest flow starting the week of February 20th. This could steer a series of Pacific storms into the Midwest, and some of them may actually dip into the southern Plains and gulp down some significant moisture before dumping it as snowfall on Minnesota.

GFS hints at a possible "Panhandle Hook" snow storm around February 21st?

While it's still way too early to credibly support these numbers, The 12Z GFS cranked out 1.5" of "liquid" precip the week of February 20th from 2 different storm systems. If that verified and fell as all snow, it could add up to 10" to 15"+ somewhere in Minnesota that week.

We'll see. Trying to credibly nail storm systems that far in advance is futile. But the take away is this; The overall upper air pattern is changing and there could be a growing chance of snowfall the week of February 20th.

Stay tuned!

2012: Year of the Texas-sized "mega-drought" in Minnesota?

As we look ahead toward spring, Minnesota's growing drought looms as the biggest weather story and concern of 2012.

A full 96.2% of Minnesota is classified in "moderate" or "severe" drought in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.

The water tap shut off late last summer in Minnesota, and last fall was the driest on record for many locations. Soils heading into the freeze were powder dry, and will remain that way into the spring thaw.

Weather patterns the rest of this winter into this spring will be critical in determining if this will become one of the worst droughts in Minnesota history, or a significant drought that is eased by above average spring precipitation.

Here are the variable at play the next 3 months.

Late February & March:

The second half of February and the month of March may determine how critical Minnesota's "hydrologic" drought is going into the summer of 2012.

We're living through the 2nd lowest snowfall season to date for much of southern Minnesota. Snowfall at MSP Airport is only 14.9" so far, that's a good month in most years and a good storm last year!

Northern Minnesota has seen better snowfall totals, but most areas are still way below average for the season.

The average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season is 16.5" in the metro and southern Minnesota. We'll need average to much above average snowfall between now and April to provide enough snow melt runoff to feed Minnesota's rivers & lakes, which are at very low levels.

This runoff is critical for easing the "hydrologic" component of drought (rivers, ponds, lakes etc.) but doesn't help much with the "agricultural" or "soils" component since the ground is still frozen and most runoff from snow melt won't soak in.

That's where April weather comes in to play.

April & May:

Average rainfall for April is about 2.3" for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. We will need every drop this spring and significantly more if we are going to stave off a major drought in 2012.

The ground thaws in April. April rainfall soaks into soils, and will recharge them for the growing season. We'll need above average rainfall in April & May to ease drought conditions in Minnesota. Average rainfall won't do this year. A good 4" to 8" of spring rains is what we need to prevent serious drought as we head into the summer of 2012.

Will fading La Nina help?

CPC is out today with news that La Nina is close to being history in the tropical Pacific.

This could possibly be good news for a wetter spring in Minnesota. If "ENSO neutral" conditions evolve we could see a return to more "normal" spring weather patterns in the Midwest.

At this point (in a drought) any pattern change is likely to lead to wetter conditions.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.

Stay tuned!

Arctic air pushes south:

A few flurries may accompany the arctic front surging south into early Friday. Get ready for a bracing day Friday, with wind chills at or below zero in most of Minnesota!

Chicago lake effect snow blitz Friday!

As arctic air hits the still relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, a rare lake effect snow burst will hit the Windy City and northwest Indiana Friday into Saturday.

While lake effect is common in northwest Indianan and Michigan, low level wind trajectories have to be just right to get lake effect snow in Chicago. Friday into early Saturday brings the perfect NNE wind trajectory that flows down the entire fetch of Lake Michigan and right into the Chicago metro area.

At least 6" could fall in Chicago, and this set up look so good that I wouldn't be shocked to see some bands of 6" to 12" in and close to Chicago.

At least somebody in the Midwest is getting snow Friday!

PH

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Pop up T-Showers; Florida Hurricane threat; Double-Dip La Nina?

Posted at 8:47 AM on August 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes, La Nina

Fickle Thursday:

Look for a few isolated "pop-up" showers & T-showers today around Minnesota & the Upper Midwest.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

What meteorologists refer to as a "weak synoptic pattern" is providing enough instability to generate the isolated T-Showers. Weak synoptic patterns are defined by the lack of a major focal point to generate storms...like a strong cold front or big low pressure system does.

The result is a higher degree of difficulty forecasting exact timing and location of storms.

There's just enough instability today that SPC has much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe weather.

I don't expect a big widespread severe weather outbreak today, but one or two storms could approach severe limits.

Florida: Keeping a wary eye on the tropical Atlantic

Again, it's too early to issue any reliable hurricane forecasts a week in advance. But it's not too early to start paying attention when the same model insists on placing a (potentially strong?) hurricane somewhere near Florida late next week.

For the 3rd day in a row, the NCEP GFS model is developing a hurricane and tracking it westward to a position near south Florida sometime late next week.

There's a lot of open water and atmosphere between the tropical wave, which is still in the eastern Atlantic... and Florida.

Here's the latest from NHC.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Anything could happen in the next week, but if I lived in Florida I would have my "pre hurricane" action plan in full gear and be readying thing just in case this pans out next week. That's a good idea anyway during late August in the southeast USA.

Stay tuned.

"Double-Dip" La Nina?

It doesn't happen often, but there are signs that we may see a rare "double-dip" La Nina again next winter.

La Nina years (cold water in tropical Pacific) are usually separated by an El Nino episode (warm water) in between.

But every so often (2008-2009 & the mid 1970s) a La Nina will fade to neutral, only to regenerate again the next year.

Historical El Nino Southern Oscillation. La Nina episodes in blue, El Nino in red.

There are signs La Nina could regenerate next winter, and CPC has issued another "La Nina Watch."

The various climate models are split on what will happen next winter. Some say a weak El Nino, some are "ENSO neutral" and some say La Nina will return.

At this point I'd say it's a coin flip, but we may know more when the next ENSO advisories are issued in September and October.

Last winter's relatively strong La Nina may be the reason we saw heavy to record snowfall, and a cold spring. But all La Nina episodes are not equal in terms of the weather patterns they produce. I'd say it's unlikely we'll see another 86" of snowfall next winter in the metro, but I suppose anything is possible.

Again...stay tuned!

PH

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Septembery Thursday; Rain tonight; AZ smoke from space

Posted at 9:05 AM on June 9, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: La Nina

The bloom is fading on the lilacs. The June bugs are pretty much toast. And it feels like school should be starting up today, instead of the last day of school for many districts.

Did we go to bed in June and wake up in September?

With temperatures 50 degrees cooler than just 36 hours ago you have to wonder.

Let's break down the forecast as we look ahead into the weekend.

Thursday:

Thursday feels like September in Minnesota. A mixed bag of clouds & sun and a brisk northeast breeze combined with temps in the 60s will make for a chilly but pleasant day.

78 degrees: The average high for today, June 9th.

68 degrees: My forecast high for the metro at around 4pm today

September 23rd: The date when our average high is 68 degrees

Thursday night & Friday:

Our next weathermaker rolls into Minnesota tonight and Friday.

A moderate strength low pressure system is slowly pulling east from the northern Rockies and heading for Minnesota. Ahead of the system, a warm front in Iowa will pull up moisture and develop a "stratiform rain" area tonight and move it north into southern Minnesota.

As opposed to convective precip, stratiform rain is more widespread and consistent, so the rain area could be a soaker for most all of Minnesota by late Friday.

It looks like the rain will focus on southern Minnesota overnight into early Friday, then shift north as Friday wears on. Skies may brighten and the rain may taper in southern Minnesota Friday PM.

Rainfall totals with this system appear to be in the .30" to .70" range generally speaking, with some locally higher 1" totals possible.

On the higher end of the scale, last night's NAM model was cranking out as much as 1.22" of rain for the metro, but has come down to around .60" on the overnight run. The GFS is hanging with about .30" on the lower end.

Modles cranking out soaking rains overnight for the Twin Cities.

We've only picked up .02" of rain in the metro so far in June, so most areas could use a good soaking. The timing is good for the most part. Temps will feel cool and linger in the 60s Friday.

Decent weekend?

Depending on your perspective, this might be a half decent weekend forecast.

Look for a mix of sun & clouds both Saturday and Sunday. Highs should be in the cool 60s Saturday, moderating into the low 70s Sunday.

Right now, the weekend looks mostly dry. It could be better, but it could be worse this weekend!

Montana Floods:

The scene we saw on Minnesota rivers has played out this year from Mississippi to Montana. Heavy snow in the northern Rockies combines with recent rainfall has river at or near record flood stage in Montana.

NOAA has the details:

...Western Flooding Continues...

Published: Thu, 09 Jun 2011 08:07:12 EDT

"More heavy rainfall -- 1 to 3 inches in the past 24 hours -- fell over central and eastern Montana, causing extensive flash flooding of streams and tributaries, as well as main stem river flooding. Many homes have been flooded in the Helena and Glasgow vicinities and a significant number of bridges and roads are impassable. The Milk River near Glasgow reached a record stage of 33.9 feet this morning, and is within one foot of the top of the levee protecting Glasgow."

AZ smoke plume visible from space:

Check out these amazing images from NOAA satellites as the smoke plume from Arizona's huge Wallow Fire streams northeast nto Minnesota Tuesday. (UW-Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog)

Now look at the image below as isolated thunderheads blew near sunset in Tuesday's heat, as the CB towers and setting sun cast shadows on the smoke plume into Wisconsin!

Do you remember how the sky turned an orangey color around sunset during the heat on Tuesday as those isolated T-Storms blew in St. Paul and raced east into Wisconsin?

We were witnessing a smoky pall from the AZ Wallow Fire plume as the cold front pushed in.

Remarkable how events over 1,000 miles away can affect our sky and weather in Minnesota!

Adios La Nina:

The latest ENSO Advisory from CPC is the final La Nina adviory for this event.

We can probably thanks, blame or curse La Nina for our snowy winter, and our chilly turbulent spring in Minnesota.

It looks like La Nina is finally bitting the dust in the tropical Pacific.

Modles trend towards "ENSO neutral" or even a slight El Nino by next winter. That could portend winter next year that is less harsh than last winter.

CPC modles show rising SST's in the tropical Pacific this year.

Stay tuned!

PH

1st 60 today, 70 Saturday! Double crest, drought develops south

Posted at 9:29 AM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Drought, Flooding, La Nina, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

Lots to talk about today...here are a few headlines:

-First 60 degree reading of 2011 likely today in the metro

-"Green wave" reaches Kansas City, moving north

-Green shoots at weather lab

Now for some detail...

First 60 of 2011 today in the metro:

Where were you on November 10th?

That's the last time the mercury topped 60 degrees in the metro!

November 2010 featured a quick transition from late season warmth to sustained winter. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like we'll finally get there again today, making this the warmest day in nearly 5 months. Look for a few bank thermometers to flash as high as 64 degrees in the metro and much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Twins home opener: Sunny & 60s?

It appears the "weather lucky" Twins have won the opening day weather lottery at Target Field for the second straight year. A potential weather system is steering south Friday, and the result should favor sunshine and afternoon temps in the low 60s. First pitch 3:10pm Friday.

Play ball!

70 by Saturday?

As a deep low pressure trof spins up in the west, a southerly flow of mild air will persist and intensify through Saturday. The result should be the first 70 balmy degree temps of 2011 Saturday afternoon.

Sunday rain & thunder?

The western low will move east by Sunday into the Upper Midwest. It's early, but it looks like a band of showers and possible T-Storms will develop Sunday with the system. We could see a decent shot of rain (and possibly some thunder) in much of Minnesota Sunday, especially late.

Modles suggesting soaking rains possible Sunday.

Weekend severe outbreak south?

Further south, the atmosphere seems primed for a potential severe outbreak Saturday and especially Sunday.

Here's the verbage from SPC...

...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING REMAINS VERY LIKELY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

-"2nd crest" for rivers this weekend:

The much talked about "2nd crest" appears headed for southern Minnesota rivers this weekend. The crest forecasts are lower than anticipated a few days ago, and many rivers look to crest near or below the first crest observed in late March.

The Crow River @ Delano is forecast to crest at 19' this weekend. That's about 1 foot below the crest of 20' on 3/28/2011, which was the 4th highest flood of record for the Crow @ Delano.

The Mississippi River @ St. Paul is forecast to crest at 19.2' Monday. That's just above the 19.01' level recorded on 3/29/2011 which was the 8th highest flood of record @ St. Paul.

The flood story of 2011 will be remembered for the "double crest." The fact that rivers spread the runoff from near record winter snows over two crests two weeks apart may have saved many communities form record floods this year.

The cold snap in late March and early April, and lighter than average precipitation was indeed the "best case scenario" for mitigating flood levels in southern Minnesota rivers in the "Floods of 2011."

Red River: Not so lucky?

A higher, single crest appears likely on the Red River this year. The Red is rising steadily these days, and the latest forecast brings the river to 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday.

If the Red reaches 39.5' it will be the 3rd highest flood of record for the Red @ Fargo, behind only 2009 (40.84') and 1997 (39.72').

-Minnehaha Creek: Fastest flow in nearly 5 years!

I took a look at Minnehaha Creek Wednesday and saw it running swiftly through Minnetonka Mills. A further check of data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) shows the discharge from the Gray's Bay Dam is running at 250 CFS. That's the highest level since June 8, 2006, or nearly 5 years!

MCWD says flows above 150 CFS are "dangerous" for canoeing down Minnehaha Creek. 250 CFS has made Minnehaha Creek a raging little river! It's worth checking out if you can as it flows through the southwest metro communities into Minneapolis. A trip to Minnehaha Falls may make for some magnificent viewing in the next few days!

-Developing Midwest Drought:

The Weather Lab took a few days off and moved south last weekend. In my drive to Lawrence Kansas, I was surprised to see the rapid transition from rivers in flood in Minnesota to very low rivers levels with sand bars in Iowa.

Smoke filled the air Saturday as I observed numerous grass fires from southern Minnesota all the way into Missouri and Kansas.

Smoke filled skies and grass fires in Iowa & Missouri Saturday.

The latest drought monitor shows a growing drought threat in much of the Southern Plains, expanding into the Midwest.

Midwest drought can be common in La Nina years, and it's a developing trend we'll have to watch as we move toward summer.

-"Green Wave" reaches Kansas City:

I'll have more on this in coming days, but I wanted to mention that I observed the green wave heading north! Phenologists refer to the leading edge of the springtime green up as the so called "green wave" as it moves north each spring.

Grass is green, and leaves are bursting out on trees near and north of Kansas City now and the "wave" is moving north.

Flowering trees on the KU Campus in Lawrence, Kansas Monday.

I have heard that the green wave moves north at anywhere from 12 to 16 miles per day on average. It won't be long with temps in the 60s and 70s until we see trees and shrubs begin to burst out in southern Minnesota!

-Green "shoots" at Weather Lab:

The weather lab slopes north so we are usually late bloomers here. But I did observe tulips and daffodil shoots coming up today. A sure sign of spring at the Weather Lab, and a sure sign of hope for us all after a real Minnesota Winter!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

Milder days ahead: Flood updates, La Nina fades

Posted at 9:24 AM on March 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, La Nina, Winter/spring 2011

Old man winter has been a grumpy old bear this year, but he's showing signs of easing up the next few days.

A change in the jet stream to a more "zonal" flow (west to east) will bring increasingly mild Pacific air masses to the Upper Midwest in the next week.

Modles indicate several days in the 40s ahead. (Click to enlarge)

One critical factor in the magnitude of our warming trend over the next week is the amount of snow cover in Iowa. There are only a couple of inches in most of Iowa, and much of that may be gone later today or on Friday.

Snow depth: Bare ground to the south!

As warmer southerly breezes blow in from Iowa over the next week, they will have less time to "modify" over the snow covered areas of southern Minnesota. That will mean increasingly milder air in the days to come on days when we have a south wind. The first "test" of that theory will be Friday, when a milder southerly breeze will blow in from Iowa.

How warm will it go? The forecast NAM 850 millibar (5,000 foot) temp at MSP Airport is about +4 degrees C Friday afternoon. In late spring with no snow on the ground that would yield a "potential" temperature of around 60 degrees under sunny skies and ideal conditions.

With deep snow cover, the air mass will modify and cool accordingly Friday...but I still think it's possible temps should soar well into the 40s Friday in southern Minnesota, and I would not be stunned to see a 50 degree reading somewhere in southern Minnesota, maybe close ot the metro... Friday afternoon.

After an abrupt cool down into the 30s this weekend behind a cold front Saturday, I do expect temps to recover into the 40s again next week, with another shot at 50 not out of the question as snow cover begins to melt .

Flood update today:

The NWS issues updated flood outlooks on Thursdays. As the snow melts at an increasing rate in the next week, we should start to see some rivers respond with rises.

The big factor in flood potential is snow water equivalent (SWE) still trapped in snowpack and the top layer of soil. As you can see from the NOHRSC map below, there is still agood 6" to 8" of liquid water equivalent available as "runoff" once the snow melts in the Minnesota and Red River watersheds.

Also note the 12"+ SWE around the BWCAW in northeast Minnesota. Lakes should be high and rivers in the BWCAW, and along the North Shore should be raging this spring.

You can see today's flood outlook updates below.

-Twin Cites NWS (Minnesota, Mississippi, St. Croix % Crow Rivers)
-Grand Forks NWS (Red River)

If you think weather forecasting is complicated, try a career as a hydrologist. They use complicated models with sometimes sparse and incomplete data (sounds familiar!) from snow cover analysis and river gauges. Flood forecasting is a science all it's own, and I have a ton of respect for the hydrologists who work hard to keep us ahead of the curve with rising river levels in flood season.

If you've ever had a tough time deciphering those "probabilistic outlooks" check out this excellent explanation from the Grand Forks NWS web site.

Flood radio show:

You can hear a special flood radio show from the NWS La Crosse tonight from 7-8pm here. Here are some of the topics NWS La Crosse will cover tonight.

Spring Flooding Live NOAA Weather Radio Show - March 10th (7-8 PM)

In addition, they will be answering questions pertaining to flooding. These can be e-mailed either before or during the show by using the following e-mail address: Jeff.Boyne@noaa.gov. They will also be taking phone call questions during the broadcast. The phone numbers to be used will be provided during the show.

La Crosse wins "golden snow shovel."

Our rather wimpy Wednesday snowmaker did manage to crank out an impressive 6.2" of snowfall at the La Crosse NWS office. Congratulations (condolences?) La Crosse, you win the golden snow shovel award with the latest weather system. There were some respectable snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa and Wisconsin.

Wednesday's snowfall map. (Click to enlarge)

La Nina fades:

Today's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion highlights the now fading la Nina in the tropical pacific. Forecasts call for a likely return to "ENSO neutral" conditions by summer. This could mean our spring like weather may be closer to "average" in the Upper Midwest...which means, expect a little bit of everything with wild swings in temperatures and periodic storms.

What else would we expect in Minnesota?

PH

Weather Lab Woolly Bear: Average winter?

Posted at 5:05 PM on September 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: La Nina, Phenology, Winter

I came across this little guy today on the Huttner Weather Lab driveway.

Does the season's first woolly bear caterpillar have a message about the upcoming winter?

Woolly bear on the Huttner Weather Lab deck today.
(Photo by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger image)

According to weather folklore, woolly bears can predict the severity the coming winter. The only fly in the woolly bears ointment is that science does not support the notion of the woolly bear as a predictor of winter weather.

The theory in folklore goes like this: The wider the brown band on woolly bears, the milder the winter. A narrow brown band with more black means a more severe winter.

Scientists have studied woolly bears to try and correlate the thickness of the bands with winter weather. The results show that woolly bears have bands of different lengths in the same year, in the same area. So it appears there is no way to use the woolly bear as a predictor of winter forecast.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for winter favors chances for a colder than average winter in much of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Water temperatures in tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled this summer, and La Nina conditions have taken over. CPC's La Nina advisory forecasts a moderate strength La Nina this winter.

La Nina winters tend to statistically favor average to colder than average conditions in Minnesota, along with higher than average snowfall in the north.

I moved our resident woolly bear onto the weather lab deck for a closer look and a few photos. He was cooperative, but seemed ready to move along after a short time, so I put him back where I found him after the mug shots.

Depending on how this guy stretched out it looked to my eye like he had a medium width brown band, with plenty of black. The non scientific folklore forecast would seem to my eye to indicate an average winter ahead. What do you think?

The Twin Cities recorded a below average 40.7" of snowfall last winter, and recorded the first snowless March in modern records. Average annual snowfall for the metro is a respectable 55.9" for the 30 year period from 1971-2000.

Just seeing the woolly bears move around this time of year as they seek out their winter homes is a sure sign that fall is here, and that winter is (gulp!) around the corner.

PH

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June Monsoon

Posted at 8:27 AM on June 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: La Nina, Rainfall

Here comes the rain again.

Our seemingly never ending series of rainmakers continues today and Tuesday in Minnesota. A slow moving upper level low pressure system is sliding overhead today with another round of showers. The system will linger through Tuesday beofre finally clearing out and allowing a return to sunshine by Wednesday.

It appears our latest wave will produce widespread .25" to .50" rainfall totals over the next 36 hours.

Model and NWS rainfall forecasts.
(click for bigger image)

Weather Lab hostas prepare to soak up another rain.

We really shouldn't be too surprised about the rain this time of year. June is our wettest month, climatologically speaking in the Upper Midwest. The Twin Cities (And most of Minnesota) sees an average of 4.34" of rainfall in a typical June.

A check of rainfall numbers this morning shows many areas have soaked up about 2.5" to 3" so far thins June. That's about an inch more than average month to date, give or take.

A return to sunshine by Wednesday should boost temps toward 80 degrees.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-MNDOT traffic cams

La Nina Returns?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that El Nino is history after rapidly dissipating in May. Rapidly cooling sea surface temps (SST's) in the tropical Pacific indicate a shift to a possible La Nina pattern this summer.

It may take a few months for atmospheric circulation patterns to shift, but it could mean a more active hurricane season, and potentially a colder winter for the Upper Midwest.

Oh joy!

PH