Updraft Category Archive: Indian Summer

Major USA aurora outbreak! October reality check

Posted at 8:00 AM on October 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Fall, Indian Summer

Major USA Aurora Monday night!

A major aurora episode dazzled viewers in the USA Monday night all the way south to Arkansas. Clouds over most of Minnesota prevented our view. Check out some of the amazing images below.

The display may have been the best in 11 years according to spaceweather.com.

"AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States.

"Wow, wow, wow! These were the best Northern Lights I've seen since 2004," says Shawn Malone, who took this picture from the shores of Lake Superior in Michigan."

Photo by: Randy Halverson

Oct. 24, 2011

Location: Cross Plains, WI

Details:

"On 10-24-2011 the forecast was for storm level Aurora displays. My son and I went out that night west of Madison, WI to shoot some timelapse and take stills of them. At one point they were so bright they lit up the ground, it will be hard to edit the timelapse because they were almost over exposed at that point. Many more pics on my site. http://dakotalapse.com/?p=581"

Photo by: Brian Emfinger

Oct. 24, 2011

Location: Ozark, Arkansas, USA

Details:

"Unbelievable! Thank you Spaceweather! I just happened to click on your site and saw the alert... I ran out and put my camera out and immediately saw reddish aurora. I ran out into the field and within a few minutes the Aurora went crazy! .... and this from near Ozark, ARKANSAS!!!! Canon T1i"

I personally saw a faint aurora dirctly overhead outside the weather lab around 9pm Monday evening through some breaks in the clouds. Unfortunately, thickening clouds shielded most of Minnesota from seeing what looks like the most dazzling display in years. Bummer!

Here are the details and photos from spaceweather.com.

Mild "Sep-Tober" Monday:

62 degrees- high temperature Monday at MSP Airport!

54 degrees - average high for October 24th

+ 8.3 degrees vs. average so far this October at MSP Airport

8th warmest October on record in 2011?
(weather lab estimate with 1 week to go)

33 tornadoes reported in Minnesota in 2011 (Complete list here from Twin Cities NWS)

114 tornaodes in Minnesota in 2010 (all time state record)

Indian Summer 60s nosed into southern Minnesota Monday. Summer like 70s and 80s poised to the south in Iowa and Kansas!

Cooler front Tuesday:

A cooler front will blow into Minnesota Tuesday. Breezy low pressure is gathering and passing through Iowa. You'll feel the cooler east-northeast winds Tuesday gusting over 20 mph at times.

Spotty showers may dot your windshield Tuesday, but this system is a bit moisture starved and rainfall totals should be mostly light.

Wednesday - Saturday: "Seasonably cool & frosty!"

A drier colder Canadian air mass will push into Minnesota by Wednesday. Look for sunny skies, cool days and chilly nights Wednesday into Saturday.

The GFS is hinting at the potential for some light um.....(gulp) light snow Friday morning around eastern Minnesota and possibly the metro. It's early, but I can't rule out a few snow flakes in the air Friday morning as an upper air disturbance slides through.

It's been at least 6 months since I had to pull out this graph!
(Click for an image you can actually read!)

Highs should be in the upper 40s to near 50 late this week. Lows will tumble into the lower 30s with frost likely each morning.

Indian Summer Halloween Ahead?

A warming trend will kick in Sunday and Monday. Right now Halloween looks mild. Mostly sunny skies and southwest winds could boost temps into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by the time the trick or treaters get rolling around 6pm Monday evening!

60s to open November?

Next week (the first week of November) looks mild.

Milder air will spill into the upper Midwest as a lazy ridge of high pressure amplifies over the central USA next week. If the pattern verifies as portrayed by the GFS modle, temps may push 60 degrees again next Tuesday - Thursday November 1st - 3rd.

Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities may see a nice dry mild stretch of 4-5 days near or at 60 degrees. With an average high at MSP of just 49 by next week, that would put temps as much as 11 degrees above average...definitely Indian Summer!

After that the models are murkier, and all bets for mild weather are off. The chances for early winter like cold and snow increase dramatically by mid November. Right now though it appears we'll see some brief cold air intrusions, followed by milder air again...possibly sunshine, dry skies and 50s for the weekend of November 5th?

There's still a window to get those leaves up and those last outdoor projects done....but that window is closing a little more each day!

PH

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How Minnesota enjoys 80s in October: The day in photos

Posted at 5:00 PM on October 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Indian Summer

If a picture is worth a thousand words this would be the longest blog post I've ever written.

There's no way I can adequately describe in words what 83 degrees in October feels like to Minnesotans, So rather than a bunch of Meteo-babble, I'll show you instead. I hope you savored your own little slice of heaven Monday.

Enjoy!

(Photos by Paul Huttner. Click to enlarge)

Pileated Woodpecker patrols Weather Lab maple Monday morning.

Kayaker soaks up afternoon sun on quiet water of St. Louis Bay on Lake Minnetonka.

One more day at the beach! Family soaks it in at Deephaven Beach.
(Note the lower water levels relative to the dock.)

Sailors at Minnetonka Yacht Club

St. Louis Bay glows with colors now.

Color splashes everywhere.

Classic Sumac red.

Tree swing anyone?

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Indian Summer 2010: 6th latest on record

Posted at 5:00 PM on November 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Indian Summer

The mercury topped out at 61 Sunday and 63 on Monday in the metro. 60s were common in much of Minnesota, with 70 in the southwest. If the metro hits 60 again Tuesday as forecast that will make three day in a row. That marks this the 6th latest (tie) stretch of 3 consecutive 60 degree days in the metro since 1938.

Here are the number form the Twin Cities NWS:

Here are some other November Indian Summer facts:

-The average last 60 degree day in the metro is November 6th.

-The longest and latest run of 60 degree temps in November was 7 days.
(November 12th-18th 2001)

Twin Cities evenings warmer than Florida:

Our upside down weather pattern is giving Minnesota warmer evenings than many locations in the southeast USA, including Florida. At 10 pm Saturday evening it was 50 degrees in the Twin Cities. That's warmer than the 10pm readings that night in Nashville,TN & Birmingham, AL (35 degrees) and Pensacola, Florida (49 degrees) along the Gulf Coast!

(click for bigger image)

It looks like our weather winning streak will last through Wednesday before a cold front brings us back to reality by week's end.

Enjoy!

Indian Summer lingers: Changes ahead late-week

Posted at 8:41 AM on November 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Indian Summer

Cathy Wurzer asked me this morning if our mild November weather qualifies as "Indian Summer." I am happy to report the answer is an unqualified and resounding yes!

From the AMS glossary:

Indian summer--A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

Temperatures topped out at 61 in the metro Sunday. That's a full (and welcome!) 16 degrees above the average high of 45 in the metro for November 7th. International Falls topped out at 60 degrees on November 7th. Not bad for a place they call the nation's icebox.

This is November? Warm air suges north Sunday.

A slow moving upper air storm over the Rockies will continue to pull mild air northward through Wednesday. Temperatures should push into the 60s again today and Tuesday, so enjoy the last leaf raking and lazy strolling this week.

Changes ahead:

It IS November...so you know the other shoe is in mid-air and ready to drop sometime soon. That time is coming later this week.

The western storm will push a cold front through Minnesota Wednesday. There will likely be a band of showers (< .25"?) with the front, but the main feature will be significantly colder air. Highs will not climb out of the lower 40s by Friday and into the weekend.

Snowy close encounter Saturday?

It looks like the upper air pattern and surface systems may come "into phase" over Wisconsin Saturday. This should spin up a low pressure system that may drag in enough moisture and cold air to produce some snow for western Wisconsin and far SE Minnesota Saturday. Rochester. La Crosse and Eau Claire may see enough snow to shovel and plow if the system tracks as forecast models paint things now.

GFS model paints possible snow Saturday in Wisconsin.

We'll have to keep an eye on this system late in the week.

Our average first 1" snowfall in the metro is on November 18th.

Earliest and Latest Snowfall and Snow Cover in Twin Cities

Average first one-inch snowfall (1891-2003) November 18
earliest (1891-2003) September 26, 1942
lastest (1891-2003) January 9, 1945

Average first one-inch snow depth(1903-2003) November 21
earliest (1903-2003) October 13, 1959
latest (1903-2003) January 1, 1913

Latest 1 inch snowfall (season) (From 1891-2005)
------------------------------
1.) Jan 21 2005 (04-05)
2.) Jan 9, 1945 (44-45)
3.) Jan 6, 1981 (80-81)
4.) Jan 1, 1914 (13-14)
5.) Dec 30, 1918 (18-19)
6.) Dec 26, 1904 (04-05)
7.) Dec 21, 1920 (20-21)
8.) Dec 20, 1998 (98-99)
9.) Dec 19, 1939 (39-40)
10.) Dec 16, 1908 (07-08)

Colder pattern persists next week.

The cold air plunge this weekend may last a while. The medium range forecast models feature a persistent northwest flow aloft, and that should send waves of reinforcing cold our way for the next two weeks.

There is a lack of snow cover so far in northwest Canada, and that may help temper what could be an icy outbreak of cold air.

In the mean time, enjoy two more days of Indian Summer... Minnesota style!

PH