Updraft Category Archive: Thunderstorms

Heavy rains drench a large part of Minnesota

Posted at 5:12 PM on May 24, 2012 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Record, Storms, Thunderstorms

Excessive rainfall drenched a large region of Minnesota the past 24 hours. The far northwest corner of the state missed out on the more-than-generous rainfall amounts.

Doppler rainfall estimates since Wednesday through 5 p.m. CDT
Source:Weatherunderground

Here are some reports from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen of rainfall from midday Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday.

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms formed in far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Wind damage was reported in Eau Claire, Wis., as well as Fillmore and Winona Counties in Minnesota. Here's a list of storm reports from the LaCrosse NWS office. Click on previous version for earlier reports.

In case you missed it, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport reached a record high of 89 degrees on Wednesday. The previous record was 88 set in 2010 and 1874.

As Memorial Day weekend approaches, the weather will quiet down for 36 hours or so. Temperatures should be a tad below normal on Friday. Cloud cover and a risk of showers are likely to hold down temperatures on Saturday. A surge of warmer air arrives in southern Minnesota on Sunday.

Sunday's predicted high temperatures.
Source: NOAA/NWS

Warmer temperatures, increasing south winds and humidity will lead to severe storms Sunday evening and Sunday night. You will want to stay tuned for updates on the risk of nasty weather later in the holiday weekend.

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Strong thunderstorms soak parts of Minnesota

Posted at 12:29 PM on May 6, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Thunderstorms

Very heavy rain fell in parts of central and southern Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night. Some of the stronger thunderstorms produced hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts to 50 m.p.h.

Click on image to enlarge
Source: NWS Chanhassen, MN

Isolated locations got more than three inches of rain Saturday and Saturday night.

Specific twenty-four hour rainfall totals ending at 7am CDT

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Flooding rains and severe thunderstorms likely in southern Minnesota

Posted at 1:14 PM on May 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Severe weather, Storms, Thunderstorms

Conditions have come together for bouts of showers and thunderstorms for the next 24 to 36 hours over Minnesota. The most intense storms are likely in the southern half of the state. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for an area of central and southern Minnesota.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...KANDIYOHI...MCLEOD...MEEKER...
RENVILLE...SIBLEY...STEARNS AND WRIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CARVER AND SCOTT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
BLUE EARTH...BROWN...FARIBAULT...FREEBORN...LE SUEUR...
MARTIN...NICOLLET...RICE...STEELE...WASECA AND WATONWAN. IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...REDWOOD. IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...POPE...STEVENS...SWIFT AND YELLOW
MEDICINE.

Heavy rains have already drenched this area.

The NOAA Prediction Center has its eyes on Minnesota and South Dakota for very heavy rainfall totals, exceeding more than three inches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been posted by the Storm Prediction Center until 7 p.m.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

At 1:05 p.m. the National Weather Service received a report of one inch diameter hail 3 miles east southeast of New Ulm.

Track severe storms and flooding rains from the NWS in Chanhassen.

--Craig Edwards

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Morning thunderstorms fade but may reload before day is done

Posted at 4:00 PM on May 3, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

A cluster of thunderstorms coalesced over east central and southeast Minnesota this morning. Many locations around the Twin Cities metro experienced a 30 to 40 minute downpour. A number of cities reported rainfall of around three quarters of an inch with this rush of storms.

A few places east of the Twin Cities had to deal with hail up to an inch in diameter and wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. Hail was not as brutal as last evening's storms in southern Minnesota.

Satellite image from 340pm CDT from NOAA/College of Dupage
This cluster of storms is forecast to strengthen and drift east through the remainder of the afternoon.

Source: NOAA SPC

The Storm Prediction Center lays out this probability of large hail tonight. Incoming and departing flights from Chicago and Milwaukee may experience delays.

Another weak trigger in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaching the upper Midwest on Friday could initiate showers and thunderstorms in Minnesota as it races east. Note the small wind max forecast at 1 p.m. in western Minnesota.

Cooler temperatures will begin to set in for the weekend. The chances for thunderstorms hold rather high. Strong thunderstorms look to be most likely later on Saturday night.

Saturday's forecast high temperatures. Source; National Weather Service

Temperatures at 4 p.m. CDT ranged from 81 at Owatonna to a cool 46 in Duluth Harbor. As we will be saying for the next several months, cooler near the lake.

--Craig Edwards

Hail pummels parts of southern and central Minnesota

Posted at 6:38 AM on May 3, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Radar, Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

The corridor from near New Ulm to Zumbrota was clobbered with hail up to two and a half inches in diameter late Wednesday afternoon. Ouch! And Tuesday's storms brought large hail on a swath from Sauk Centre to near Princeton on the order of two inches in diameter.

Storm reports from NWS Chanhassen. Check out previous versions.

Wednesday's storm reports. Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

In a separate overnight storm, Milan, in Chippewa County, reported two inch diameter hail.

More storms at daybreak were producing large hail southeast of Fergus Falls. These storms were racing quickly east toward Brainerd and St. Cloud

Raindrops violently tossed in the updrafts of thunderstorms can accumulate ice layers in the cold air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. Tops of the thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon were above 40,000 feet in southern Minnesota. Commercial aircraft top out at that level for their cruising altitude.

This graphic from Weatherunderground depicts the accumulated precipitation beginning May 2nd and ending at 630 a.m. CDT. Note the track of severe storms in the brighter yellow and orange. These storms produced heavy rainfall as well as large hail. Two and a half inches of rain fell in a short time yesterday afternoon eight miles northwest of New Ulm. Nearly two inches of rain was measured at Zumbrota.

Source:Weatherunderground.com

Lighter rainfall occurred in the Minnesota Arrowhead region in the past 24 hours.

The Minnesota State Climate Office released the hydrological update yesterday. You can read the entire report here.

Recent moisture has helped put a dent in the drought, but there are still areas that need moisture to recover from the seven-month deficit. From the report:

April 2012 precipitation totals were above normal in portions of west central, north central, and northeast Minnesota. Elsewhere, monthly precipitation totals were near the historical average. It was only the second month since July 2011 where monthly precipitation totals were near to above average.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are in the weather picture through the weekend. Here's the potential rainfall for the next three days.

Source: NOAA NCEP

--Craig Edwards

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Storm reports from Tuesday

Posted at 6:41 AM on May 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms blossomed over central and southwest Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Large hail hammered the area from Albany to Sauk Centre, including St. Cloud and St. Joseph. Spotters reported hail up to an inch and three quarters in diameter, driven by winds exceeding 50 mph at times.

Two and half inches of rain fell at Sauk Rapids in Benton County.

Preliminary storm reports compiled by the Storm Prediction Center for May 1.

Regional reports of severe weather available here. Hail pounded parts of southwest Minnesota as well.

Doppler radar rainfall estimates for the past 24 hours indicate where the most severe storms struck yesterday aftenoon and evening. Notice that portions of southern Minnesota tallied less than a quarter inch of rain. Around three quarters to one inch of precipitation fell in the Twin Cities metro area.

The water vapor satellite imagery from this morning shows the layered moisture has swept east and south of Minnesota. It will take a few hours for the atmosphere to regroup. We'll look for a boundary to likely set up along the Iowa/Minnesota border to be the focus for storm development this afternoon.

The lighter gray shade is drier air. Brighter white is associated with dense clouds and precipitation.
Source: NOAA

With sunshine today temperatures should response nicely, climbing well into the 70s.

Source: NOAA/NWS

Here's the severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice the higher risk of nasty storms in Iowa.

Thunderstorms likely to erupt soon

Posted at 1:46 PM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

We've seen persistent cloud cover over eastern Minnesota but southwest Minnesota has experienced the warming rays of sunshine for most of the day. This region of the state should be the launching zone for showers and thunderstorms in the next couple of hours.

Temperatures have reached 80 degrees from Worthington to Granite Falls. Dew points were climbing as well. South winds were gusting up to 30 mph. The air mass is becoming increasingly unstable. Thunderstorms should develop as the afternoon progresses.

Visible satellite 130pm CDT
Source: NOAA and College of Dupage

There remains the potential for severe storms with damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall can be expected.

Source: NOAA SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has a large swath of the state with the risk of a tornado. While the probability may appear small, we all need to keep aware of the intensity of storms later this afternoon and into early tonight.

If your plans call for outdoor activities into the evening, you should be alert for approaching storms. Watch for darkening skies and flashes of lightning. Athletic fields should be cleared if thunder is heard within 30 seconds of the lightning flash. Don't wait for the heavy rain to arrive.

--Craig Edwards

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May begins with severe weather threat

Posted at 6:37 AM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Turning the calendar to May seems to coincide with the forecast of warmer temperatures, rising dew points and the threat for strong thunderstorms in Minnesota and the upper Midwest.

An opening act of showers and thunderstorms developed over central Minnesota overnight signaling the growing potential for a juiced up atmosphere. As low level moisture converges over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Source: NOAA SPC

We expect some sunshine and heating to destabilize the atmosphere today. Temperatures could top 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. Southerly winds will gust to over 25 mph at times.

Visible satellite image shortly after daybreak.
Source:NOAA through College of Dupage

Experimental RUC forecast of surface temperatures and winds at 6PM CDT.
Source; NOAA/NWS

The trend has shown the main event is most likely to occur later this afternoon and tonight. Stay attentive to changing weather and the posting of severe weather watches and warnings.

Remember a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when there is the high potential for hail one inch or greater in diameter and damaging winds on the order of 60 mph or greater. When a Tornado Watch is posted you need to remain particularly attentive to warnings. Have multiple sources for weather information, including a NOAA Weather Radio.

This experimental thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the probability of thunderstorms developing between 3pm CDT and 7pm CDT.

In the Twin Cities, we closed out April with temperatures averaging two and half degrees above normal. Precipitation at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International airport totaled 3.04 inches, more than a third of an inch above normal.

--Craig Edwards

Time to eat into the moisture deficit

Posted at 3:41 PM on April 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Rainfall, Storms, Thunderstorms

Since late July Mother Nature has cheated Minnesota on moisture. We could hardly buy a snow storm this past winter. But perhaps we are on the brink of cutting into the deficit in southern Minnesota. Moisture hasn't been as scarce this month.

The precipitation totals from far northwest to south range from about an inch and a half to slightly more than three inches. A beneficial precipitation event occurred in Itasca and St. Louis Counties as a combination of snow and rain fell in mid April -- yet lake levels remain low.

Precipitation image for April 16th provide by NOAA

Some locations in central and southern Minnesota tallied more than a half of an inch of moisture in the past week. Here's a look at the moisture departure from early August to late April:

Source: Minnesota Climatological Working Group

Warmer temperatures are seen for the middle of the work week and those temps, along with increasing dew points, will create an environment favorable for thunderstorms. The first round of storms enters the weather scene on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night.

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms, producing hail and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

There was enough cloud cover extending into the afternoon hours to hold the temperatures in the lower 60s in east central Minnesota.

As anticipated, NOAA released an update of the temperature outlook for the month of May today.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

A warm front may set up over central Minnesota on Wednesday. Warm fronts are known for spawning some good rainfall amounts, particularly overnight. We'll see.

--Craig Edwards

Radar estimated rainfall

Posted at 7:58 AM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Thunderstorms

From the Doppler radar out of Duluth NWS Office, Here is the estimated rainfall from early Monday morning until 8AM CDT this morning. Four to six inches estimated in Douglas County in northwest Wisconsin.

AT 651 AM CDT...DOUGLAS COUNTY WISCONSIN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY WERE UNDER WATER
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. STATE HIGHWAY 35...APPROXIMATELY 19 MILES
SOUTH OF SUPERIOR WAS REPORTED TO BE CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROAD. ALSO...COUNTY ROAD W SOUTH OF DEWEY AT THE NEMADJI RIVER WAS
REPORTED WASHED OUT. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.

Here's a great view with the infrared of NOAA satellite image from daybreak. Notice the overnight convection over northwest Wisconsin and the new cluster of thunderstorms that would race across southern Minnesota this morning.

Follow the storm reports this morning out of the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Branches down between 730AM and 810AM in portions of Stearns County; Avon to St. Joseph.

0805 AM TSTM WND GST ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
08/02/2011 M63 MPH STEARNS MN MESONET

Storms moving through northern Metro into west central Wisconsin through mid morning.
CE

Severe Thunderstorm Watch this morning

Posted at 6:28 AM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards (5 Comments)
Filed under: Thunderstorms, dew point

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ORTONVILLE
MINNESOTA.

Heavy rain fell across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight. Three and a third inches of rain was reported at Askov in Pine County, MN and near Floodwood in St. Louis County, MN. The automated gauge at the Duluth Airport captured two and a half inches of rain.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the southern portion of Minnesota and west central Wisconsin this morning as a cool front slips through the region. Less humid conditions are on tap for Wednesday.

Here's the complete report of the record dew point for this summer as published Monday afternoon by the Minnesota State Climate Office:

The Exceptionally Muggy Summer of 2011

The National Weather Service is forecasting a break in the high dew point temperatures over the next few days after the muggy day today. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 274 hours of dew point temperatures of 70 degrees or higher recorded at the Twin Cities International Airport. The record is 512 hours in 2002. What really stands out are the counts of extremely muggy dew point temperatures. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 98 hours of dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher. This breaks the old record of 78 hours that was set back on 2001.

Twin Cities International Airport
Greatest Number of hours with dew point
temperature of 70 degrees F
(1945-2011)

Rank Year Hours
----------------------
1. 2002 512
2. 1983 392
3. 1995 387
4. 2001 357
5. 1955 345

1981-2010 average = 182

so far in 2011 274
(through 3pm August 1)

Twin Cities International Airport
Greatest Number of hours with dew point
temperature of 75 degrees F
(1945-2011)

Rank Year Hours
--------------------
1. 2011 98 (as of 3pm August 1)
2. 2001 78
3. 1999 64
4. 1987 60
5. 1995 56

1981-2010 average = 18

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Increasing threat of dangerous storms

Posted at 3:55 PM on August 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Target Field, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, dew point

This visible satellite image shows a couple of important aspects about this afternoon's weather. First, the clouds that remained over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which kept temperatures from climbing into the lower 90s. Second, the clearing in western Minnesota that has allowed sunshine and high dew points to produce heat index values about 100; including 106 at 3PM in Canby.

In the previous blog you'll note the Storm Prediction Center's rather high probability of tornado potential in western Minnesota. There is a boundary from the differential heating due to the cloud-free area and the persistent cloud cover. This is displayed nicely in the graphic of the dew points, temperatures and pressure field as generated from 3PM surface observations.

Temperature contours are in red, dew point highlighted by colored background and pressure field in black. Basic meteorology suggests the inflow of winds from the south and southeast, along with the advancing low pressure, high dew points and afternoon heating will result in thunderstorm development in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

We'll watch how this unfolds in the later afternoon and early evening hours.

Meanwhile, Pete Boulay of the State Climate Office shared this tid-bit after probing the dew points recorded this summer at the Twin Cities International Airport. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 98 hours of dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher. This breaks the old record of 78 hours that was set back on 2001.

Some branches were blown down along with power lines as the storms swept through east central Minnesota between 1230PM and 230PM this afternoon. Here's a link to the storm reports out of the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Heavy rain also was reported with over two inches at Hutchison and an inch and a half at Target Field near downtown Minneapolis from late morning to mid afternoon.

Stay abreast of potentially dangerous weather conditions developing as we go into the evening hours.
CE

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Round one racing through the Twin Cities

Posted at 1:18 PM on August 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Strong to severe thunderstorms were moving through the Twin Cities and points south early this afternoon.

Here's a link to the latest storm reports from the National Weather Service.

Clearing is taking place in western Minnesota and the atmosphere could ignite once again. Stayed for breaking weather and be sky aware. Here's the recent outlook for tornado potential this afternoon and evening. These probabilities are quite high.

The atmosphere is primed for thunderstorm development.

Good day for sky awareness

Posted at 8:05 AM on July 10, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms ignited overnight in southwest Minnesota and spread east northeast into the southern Twin Cities Metro. This batch of storms is currently losing punch in our area and moving through central Wisconsin.

Another very warm and humid day is on tap. Be sky aware and monitor for possible watches and warnings this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Predicition Center has outlined a rather broad area of the state with potential for damaging winds, exceeding 60 mph in the next 18 hours.

Scan for clues in the sky of darkening and advancing clouds, along with lightning and thunder. Those observations tend to give a headsup that dangerous weather may be in the vicinty.
CE

Holiday weekend, not too shabby

Posted at 6:55 AM on July 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Summer, Thunderstorms, Weekend

Overall this Fourth of July Holiday weekend was pretty nice in Minnesota. Saturday, Sunday and Monday were warm with plentiful sunshine. Dew points climbed into the 70s in parts of northwest Minnesota on Monday afternoon. Temperatures peaked at 90 degrees in Roseau and the Twin Cities, with a high of 85 at Duluth on Monday.

Thunderstorms rumbled across northern and central Minnesota overnight, dumping two thirds of an inch or rain or more at some locations, including St. Cloud. At daybreak thuderstorms were along the Iowa border in southwest Minnesota with a rather large area of rain in west central Minnesota.

Visible satellite image shows the bumps in the cloud cover where the thunderstorms were located at 630AM CDT. Notice the clearing line in in far northwest Minnesota.

The bigger picture shows quite the cloudcover centered over Minnesota this morning. This infrared image depicts the coldest cloud tops, typically associated with precipitation, in the blue color.

For today, skies should be partly to mostly sunny over the northern third of the Gopher State, with periods of showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Minnesota. Some strong storms are possible, mainly south of a line from Montevideo to the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Clearing skies are then expected from west to east during the course of the late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday will be just dandy, with some increase in humidity for southern Minnesota on Thursday. The look ahead for the weekend suggests warm with a chance for scattered thunderstorms, mainly southern Minnesota.

We are entering the climatological warmest time of the year. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA has outlined the upper Midwest with odds favoring above normal temperatures for mid July. That would keep maximum temperatures will into the 80s.

Here's a look at the future radar from an experimental WRF model being run from the Duluth NWS office. The image is showing radar reflectivity forecast at 3PM CDT this afternoon. The red colors are indicators of possible thunderstorms. This is a snapshot of the future radar based on computer model output. Interesting stuff.

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Storm season is upon us

Posted at 6:45 AM on April 6, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: SKYWARN, Thunderstorms

We've had such a chilly start to spring it's hard to believe that the threat of severe storms is perhaps right around the corner. Are you mentally prepared for the wrath of thunderstorms.

Eye-balling the latest weather maps, there is some consistency in the models placing parts of central and southern Minnesota in a risk for frisky thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Click on SPC Severe Weather Outlook page here.

This is still a ways out, but the Storm Prediction Center is giving a heads up on the potential for strong storms in their experimental long range severe weather outlook. The red circle for day four is for Saturday. The day five circle is for Sunday's threat.

Today, the National Weather Service will conduct their weekly test of the NOAA Weather Radio All Hazard warning alert at 1pm. Do you know where your weather radio is? It's a good day to track it down and plug it back in for a test.

Main stream rivers continue to be at flood stage or higher in most parts of the state. Overnight, the Red River at Fargo rose above major flood stage of 30 feet. The forecast is still on track for a crest of 38 to 41 feet early next week in Fargo.

Track the Red River flood forecasts out ouf Grand Forks NWS.

Here's the latest outlook for liquid precipitation from NOAA for the weekend that was issued yesterday afternoon.

Is it any coincidence that the Twin Cities Metro Skywarn workshop is on Saturday in Minneapolis?

Still looking for an opportunity to become a Skywarn spotter. Here's a link to upcoming Skywarn trainiing sessions. Check with your local NWS office for other training sessions.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Classic June day: Then rain & thunder overnight

Posted at 8:41 AM on June 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Thunderstorms

This is how you draw it up on the weather maps for early June in Minnesota.

A classic June day today features plenty of sunshine, low humidity and mild temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 70s in most of Minnesota today, with 60s along the North Shore. Note to self...get the weather lab grass cut and get out and enjoy today.

Next system moves in tonight:

The jet stream is roaring overhead at about 20,000 feet above Minnesota these days. That means fast moving weather systems and rapid weather changes heading our way.

The next weather system will speed toward Minnesota and arrive tonight. Look for showers and thunderstorms to increase in western Minnesota this evening, and move east into eastern Minnesota after midnight. Rain should hang around into early Friday morning, but the system should move out quickly and allow a return to sunshine by Friday afternoon in most areas.

There is the potential (the hope?) for locally heavy downpours, thunder, some hail and gusty winds as the storms slide through southern Minnesota overnight. The best chance for severe weather will be along the I-90 corridor into Iowa, but there could be a few borderline severe storms elsewhere.

Heavy rain?

Forecast models are clustering rainfall totals between .50" and 1" with this next system. One model, the usually over aggressive NAM is cranking out 1.5" to 2" for the metro by Friday morning! That's likely on the high side, but it gives you the idea that there may be some locally heavy downpours if storms track over the same area.

NWS and forecast modles cranking out significant rainfall for the metro overnight.

Duluth: Warmest spring on record

Congratulations Duluth! You've just experienced the warmest spring on record. The months of March through May (meteorological spring) featured an average temperature of 45.6 degrees. This breaks the old record of 44.4 degrees set in the spring of 1977. International Falls tied with 1987 for the second warmest meteorological spring on record with an average temperature of 44.4 degrees. It fell just 0.1 degrees from the warmest spring in 1977.

My colleague Mark Seeley tells me the Twin Cities also finished with the 2nd warmest spring on record.

PH

June Thunder

Posted at 4:17 AM on June 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Springtime, Thunderstorms

Happy meteorological summer!

June 1st marks the start of meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere. The months of June, July & August are the three warmest months of the year in Minnesota, meteorologically speaking. Astronomical summer begins June 21st at 6:28 am CDT.

A cool front is crossing Minnesota today. As the front slides through, the atmosphere is unstable enough to trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. A few of these may reach severe limits. (wind gusts of 59 mph and/or hail 1" in diameter or greater)

Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe storms into southern Minnesota Tuesday.

With any strong to severe storms that do manage to form, the primary threat will be high winds and hail today. Still, you can never totally rule out an isolated tornado, or gustnado with severe rotating thunderstorms.

There could be scattered storms at any time today but the best chance for severe storms appears to be in a window between 2pm and 9pm. Keep an eye to the sky and have your weather radio handy today.

Warm & dry spring 2010:

May's final sunset on Lake Minnetonka Monday evening.

With temperatures running 1.4 degrees above average in the metro, May closes one of the warmest and driest springs on record in Minnesota.

Here are some numbers for the Twin Cities:

Temperature

March: +8.9 degrees
April: +8.3 degrees
May: +1.4 degrees

Spring 2010: +6.2 degrees!

The Twin Cities recorded 5.51" of rainfall this meteorological spring. That's 1.9" below average.

June: Warm and (usually) wet

June is typically our wettest and 3rd warmest month of the year in Minnesota.

Temperatures and humidity usually climb noticeably in June as summer kicks into high gear by mid month. In the Twin Cities the average high climbs from 75 today, to 82 by month's end. Average lows warm from 54 to 61.

With ample thunderstorms and tropical downpours at times, average rainfall in June is 4.34".

We may get our first shot of June rain today. Most areas, including the Huttner Weather Lab lawn and newly planted vegetable garden can use the rainfall!

PH

Rapid weather changes ahead

Posted at 8:37 AM on May 4, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Snow, Thunderstorms

Get ready for some big and rapid weather changes this week.

A warm front is the first weather feature to visit Minnesota this week. Look for plenty of sun and an increasing southerly breeze today. That should help boost temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon.

As the center of low pressure approaches late today, expect a few thunderstorms to develop. There is a slight risk that a few of these storms could turn severe this evening. The best chance of a storm for that evening baseball or lacrosse game will run from the Twin Cities east into Wisconsin between 4pm and 10 pm this evening.

SPC outlook paints slight risk for severe storms late today over eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

As the cold front roars through this evening you'll notice the west wind howling and driving much colder air into the region tonight. The winds will continue Wednesday, with temperatures mostly in the 50s.

Thursday brings yet another weather change. After a quiet start, all eyes turn west for the next developing weather system heading our way. A potent low driven by jet stream level winds of over 150 mph will bring a wave of much needed rainfall to Minnesota by Thursday evening.

Early model forecasts hint at an inch of rain Friday.
(Click for bigger image)

Friday will feature a raw northeast wind, driving rain, and temperatures in the 40s. There is some indication it could be cold enough for snow, yes SNOW for much of the northern half of Minnesota Friday. It's even within the realm of possibility that some snow flakes fly in the Twin Cities late Friday or Friday evening.

Models indicate trend toward colder temps later this week.

Be ready for some rapid weather changes this week. In the meantime, get out and enjoy today...and keep an eye to the sky for developing thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening.

PH

Friday rain & thunder

Posted at 12:01 AM on April 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

There's an old saying in Minnesota." If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes."

Get ready for a little bit of everything over the next 24 to 48 hours. You may get wind, clouds, sun, rain, lightning, thunder and even hail. Like life, it's all about timing.

A few isolated storms clipped the southeast metro Thursday evening.

Storms dump streaks of rainfall Thursday evening southeast of the metro.

The main focus for much needed rainfall Thursday was in northern Minnesota.

Duluth NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows some (but not enough) rainfall over drought stricken northeast Minnesota Thursday.

A slow moving cold front and waves of low pressure will ride through the Upper Midwest Friday. The system brings waves of rain and thunder through Minnesota.

Rainfall forecasts still cluster around the .50" to .75" range for much of southern Minnesota through Friday. As is typical in springtime convective rainfall, some areas will see more or less depending on where storms track.

Numerical model and NWS rainfall forecasts cluster around half an inch for the Twin Cities area through Friday.

There may be a few scattered marginally severe storms packing gusty winds and hail Friday.

Keep an eye on the sky, and on the links below through the day.

-Sioux Falls radar loop
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Duluth radar loop
-Storm Prediction Center

PH

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Scattered rain & thunder

Posted at 8:26 AM on April 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Target Field, Thunderstorms

Radar watchers will have plenty to look at today in Minnesota.

A weak and slow moving cool front will stall over eastern Minnesota later today. Moisture pooling near the front will provide the fuel for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The moisture, warm winds and frontal position mean it's the kind of day where scattered storms may pop up with little notice. Remember that old saying if you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes? Today may be that kind of day with rapid weather changes.

Some of the storms may be strong to marginally severe later this afternoon and this evening. Expect the potential for local downpours, gusty winds, lightning and hail today.

The good news is we could use some more rain. Many spots could see another .25" to .50" today, with a few lucky spots seeing higher totals. The weather lab got a nice shot of rain yesterday, but another half inch would be welcome for many fields, lawns and gardens.

Forecast modles indicate chances for more rainfall today.
(click for bigger image)

It appears the best chance for heavy rainfall approaching an inch will be in the southeast metro and western Wisconsin later this afternoon and this evening.

If you are heading out to the Twins game today, expect the possibility of a shower or T-Storm. Since coverage of the storms will be scattered, there may be rainy periods and breaks in the rain this afternoon. Highs should be in the 70s with a mild south wind blowing in from the outfield.

It is interesting to note that on the day of the Gophers home opener at TCF Bank Stadium it remained dry, while over an inch of rain fell just 1 mile from the stadium in localized downpours. The vertical development of convective precipitation causes wide variation in rainfall over short distances.

Here are some resources to keep track today's changeable weather situation.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Storm Prediction Center
-Latest hourly observations
-Local storm reports

PH