Updraft Category Archive: Minnesota River

A dent in the drought

Posted at 6:49 AM on May 7, 2012 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Rainfall

Drenching rains the first week of May have helped some of the drought-stricken areas of Minnesota. Rivers and lakes are responding to the two to five inches of rain that fell in the past week.

Rainfall past seven days, ending 1155pm CDT Sunday
Source: NOAA NWS

The Minnesota River response at Henderson shown in this hydrograph:

Source: NOAA NWS

The Mississippi River in St. Paul is rising:

Source; NOAA NWS

The drought status previous to the heavy weekend rains in southern Minnesota:

Source: Minnesota State Climatologist Office

Sunshine returns today with temperatures near seasonal normals.

Looking ahead to Saturday, perhaps a graduation day, the temperatures are expected to be mild. Thinking about planting the annuals? Why not!

1 p.m. temperature forecast from NAM for Saturday, May 12th:

Source: Twisterdata.com

-Craig Edwards

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Flood 2011 Recap; Late-week snow chance fades?

Posted at 5:19 PM on April 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

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The floods of 2011 are still in progress and have caused problems in some areas. There have been two flood related deaths, numerous roads, parks and fields remain under water, especially near the Red River.

But it could have been so much worse.

Here's a recap of how the floods of 2011 came to pass, and why it appears we have dodged what could have been a disastrous record flood year...so far.

Loading the dice:

The dice were loaded as early as late last summer and fall for spring flooding in 2011.

Record September rains swelled many area rivers to record fall flood crests. September 2010 was the wettest on record for Minnesota, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

The statewide average rainfall was 6.47" in September.

Many southern Minnesota locations south of the Minnesota River were deluged with as much as 10" to 12" of rainfall last September.

As a result, many rivers including the Minnesota reached unprecedented record fall flood levels. In spite of an October dry spell, rivers were high, and soils largely saturated going into the winter freeze up in November.

Snow Blitz 2010-'11:

The winter of 2010-'11 began precisely on November 13th, 2010. That's the day the season's first big snow storm covered the Minnesota landscape with as much as a foot of snow...snow that would not disappear until early April in some areas.

The snow blitz continued at regular intervals with three massive storms to close out 2010, including the infamous "Domebuster 2010."

Story link: MyFoxTWINCITIES.com

The December "snopacolypse" the snowiest December on record at Twin Cities Airport.

2011: New year, same weather

The snow blitz continued into 2011. Storms continued to pile up snow on the landscape. By the time March rolled around it was the 5th snowiest winter on record for the Twin Cities.

All that snow contained a lot of water. Much of southern Minnesota had "snow water equivalent" of anywhere from 6" to 8"+ available for melting, and runoff into area rivers.

In late February, NWS hydrologists issued some alarming forecasts about the potential for record flood levels on many area rivers.

Southern Minnesota: How we dodged the bullet on record floods.

The warm up came in mid-March.

A string of mild days peaking in the 50s, and several nights above freezing started the snow melt.

As water gushed into area rivers, the rains came. Over an inch of rain fell on March 22nd. This "washed" additional snow cover and rain runoff rapidly into rivers. As a result, rovers were "shocked" into rapid rises, and the first flood crest was on, peaking in southern Minnesota rivers on March 28th & 29th.

It appears at the time that the rivers may have been headed for a record flood, but then came the cold.

Arctic air mass saves the day:

Behind the March 22-23 storm, a big sprawling arctic high pressure system settled in over Minnesota. For 6 days, overnight lows plunged into the teens, and daytime highs struggled to reach the freezing point.

The instant freeze locked up all water in snow cover and on the landscape in place, and almost instantly shut off any additional runoff into rivers. As a result, rivers peaked on March 28-29 and began to slowly fall, instead of rising to the record levels that would have likely occurred with milder temperatures and/or more rainfall.

That's how we dodged the record floods of 2011.

2nd Crest: A blessing in disguise?

Though southern rivers were falling, the flood gun was still partially loaded. Snow still on the ground packed plenty of water, and the potential for more snow, rain and a sudden warm up loomed.

Thankfully the weather cooperated, and a slow warm up created the perfect "time release" scenario for a "manageable" 2nd crest on southern Minnesota Rivers.

The fortunate fact that we able to "spread the water out" over two different high but manageable flood crests in 2011 may have saved us from what would have been a damaging all time flood of record on river in the south.

Red River: Not so lucky

In the north, the Red River watershed never really got in on the first big warm up in March. Temperatures remained cold enough, that most of the snow stayed intact in mid March.

As a result we are now seeing the effects of the higher "single crest" that was feared on southern Minnesota rivers this spring.

The Red River @ Fargo appears to have peaked at 38.75 feet on Saturday, below earlier forecasts of 39.5 to 40+ feet.

Still, the 39.75' crest at Fargo is the 4th highest flood of record for Fargo.

Historical Crests for Red River of the North at Fargo

(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 39.72 ft on 04/18/1997
(3) 39.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(4) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(5) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(6) 36.99 ft on 03/21/2010
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.41 ft on 04/02/1978
(11) 33.26 ft on 07/04/1975
(12) 30.88 ft on 06/09/2007
(13) 30.50 ft on 04/15/1965
(14) 30.16 ft on 03/22/1966
(15) 29.80 ft on 03/31/1907

It is interesting to note that 6 of the top 10 highest floods of record on the Red at Fargo have occurred since 1997.

All in all, it appears in many ways we dodged a bullet for the 2011 flood season.

Snow chances fade for Friday & Saturday?

A weak front may trigger a few rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

You may have heard talk of another major snowmageddon scenario for Friday & Saturday. The GFS model has been in "weather terrorist" mode again this week, portraying the possibility of heavy snow in southern Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

I've been watching the models with a skeptical eye, and I think my suspicions are coming to light.

The latest NAM (much more reliable model lately) run is doing about what I expected...tracking a weaker, warmer system further south.

At this point, it looks like mostly (light?) rain for southwest Minnesota Thursday. The rain showers may spread north into the metro Friday, and could possibly mix with some wet snow flakes late Friday night into early Saturday.

At this point I don't see any accumulations worth writing home about, but the system will still have to be watched.

Look for a return to cool sunshine with highs in the 40s Sunday.

Eau Calire County tornado damage Sunday:

Here's the damage survey from Sunday's storms in Eau Claire County.

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Red River rising at Grand Forks

Posted at 3:40 PM on April 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

We've covered the expected crest of between 39 and 41 feet on the Red River at Fargo/Moorhead. Here's the hydrograph projecting a crest of over 49 feet at Grand Forks.

If the river rises to this level it would be the fourth highest on record. The record crest is 54.35 feet set on April 22, 1997.

The Red River at Fargo is approaching major flood stage of 30 feet. It's about 28.5 feet this afternoon.

With the snowpack fading quickly the hydrologists are now focusing in on runoff finding its way from the tributaries and streams into the main stem rivers. Also, any additional rain later in the week may impact the forecast crest. Anticipated rainfall beyond the next twenty-four fours is not included in the river model run.

Here's the satellites eye view of upper Midwest in middle February. Note the gray line indicating the Minnesota River cutting through the snow field.

Here's a visible satellite image from this afternoon. Not much snowcover remains. But you can see the snow and ice on Lake Mille Lacs.

Here's a true sign of spring from my neighborhood this afternoon. I like this!

Hope springs eternal! First sixty degree reading of the year insight for the Twin Cities? Stay tuned.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

An okay scenario, keeping a watchful eye on river levels

Posted at 6:52 AM on April 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Crow River, Minnesota River

Last evenings forecast run delivered by the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen for the second crest at St. Paul.

Any additional precipitation on Thursday through Sunday could impact this forecast. Hydrological models ingest quantative precipitation forecasts only for the next 24 hours.

Second crest expected on the Crow River in Delano.

Red River at Fargo:
The crest of 38 to 40 feet on the Red River in Fargo on next Monday is unchanged from yesterdays forecast.

Since December meteorologists and hydrologists have been speaking about this spring flood. Forecasters offered up best case and worst case scenarios. Perhaps the biggest factors of late have been the slow thaw and the lack of significant precipitation the last ten days. There has been less than a third of an inch of liquid precipitation in the Red River Valley since March 23rd.

The weather models are painting swaths of precipitation about the region the next five days. At this time it's still too early to call for potential amounts almost anywhere in the state. You'll recall just last weekend how an anticipated half inch of moisture bypassed southern Minnesota.

Severe weather season is in full swing to our south. Over 800 reports of strong winds and hail, along with 20 tornadoes were reported yesterday.
Storm Prediction Center storm report data. Select April 4th.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Weekend storm trends rainy? Floods, gravity waves, ISS

Posted at 6:18 PM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Gravity waves, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Snow, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are trending toward a "mostly rainy" scenario for the metro with our incoming Sunday storm.

In the meantime, there's a mix of weather ahead...including a nice day Saturday!

Metro & greater Minnesota forecast:

Overnight & early Friday: Mix of rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes early Friday. Low near 33.

Friday PM: Trending sunnier & milder. High near 43. Light west wind.

Saturday: Best day of the weekend! Mostly sunny & milder. High near 50.

Sunday: Rain likely, possible heavy at times. Could start as wet snow, changing to all rain metro. Heavy wet snow possible Brainerd & Duluth. High near 47 metro, upper 30s north.

Monday: Windy. Rain changes to snow. Significant snow totals possible, especially north. Temps upper 30s & lower 40s.

Sunday rain?

The latest model trends support the notion of mostly rain Sunday from the Twin Cities south. There is some indication that it may be cold enough at the onset of precip early Sunday to be all snow...and maybe produce an inch or two before enough mild air surges north ahead of the low to change precip to all rain.

GFS brings precip Sunday.

Both the GFS & Euro models have shifted milder air north, supporting a mostly rain solution for Sunday. The latest GFS run is even hinting that mild air could remain in place much of Monday, keeping precip mostly rain from the metro south until late in the event Monday night.

Big rain totals?

The GFS is hinting at ran totals over .50" and maybe 1" or higher. Keep in mind the GFS has (wildly) over forecast rain/snow totals in the past few storms.

NAM painting heavy rainfall totals Sunday.

Heavy snow north?

Early indications are the rain snow line could set up close to Brainerd or Duluth. This could mean some heavy snow in these areas if it stays all snow. There is the potential for an early April snowstorm up north. There is also the chance mild air could shift even further north.

Bottom line? It's still too early to make any high probability predictions for potential snowfall totals at this point. You'll see some scary (and probably overblown) numbers thrown out...but early spring storms have a way of changing at the last minute.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

Rivers falling for now:

Most area rivers continue to fall late this week and into the weekend. In some areas river levels will drop 2 to 3 feet from crests earlier this week. This is good news, since it will give rivers some "breathing room" before the next wave of rain can potentially raise river levels again next week.

The "Renegade" at Valleyfair in Shakopee soaks in floodwaters.

You can get all the latest AHPS river info here, but some creative folks at MPR have also put together an excellent "flood aggregator" blog called "Floods '11" here. Check out the blog for some of the latest news related flood items & photos.

Anatomy of a "gravity wave"

We're learning more about mysterious "gravity waves" which are sometimes observed with severe weather outbreaks. These powerful, rolling atmospheric waves seem to supercharge thunderstorm clusters. Details from the UW Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog:

Mid-tropospheric gravity waves upwind of intense convection:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 Gravity wave anim.gif

"McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 µm water vapor channel data (above; click image to play animation) showed a well-defined warm/dry "arc" feature (denoted by the brighter yellow color enhancement) just upwind of a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that was moving eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent Gulf Coast states on 30 March 2011. The MCS eventually produced a number of reports of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across northern Florida. Also note that a subtle signature of what appeared to be gravity waves could be seen within portions of this warm/dry arc feature (especially in the southern portion, over the Gulf of Mexico).

AWIPS images of 1-km resolution MODIS 6.7 µm water vapor channel data (below) offered a more detailed view of the packet of gravity waves that was associated with the southern portion of the dry arc feature. This warm/dry arc seen on the water vapor imagery could have been a signature of a region of strong compensating subsidence along the rear edge of the intense deep convection.

A number of pilot reports of moderate turbulence were co-located within this warm/dry arc feature seen on the water vapor imagery... There was also a report of severe turbulence along the northern portion of the arc feature as it moved over far southern Alabama at 17:35 UTC. This supports the idea that the warm/dry arc was likely a signature of strong subsidence in the wake of the MCS.

All of the above satellite evidence suggests that the gravity waves seen on the water vapor imagery were not surface-based, but were located at a higher altitude within the middle troposphere."

ISS sightings ahead:

Skies may be cloudy Friday morning, but Saturday should provide a good opportunity to see the brightly illuminated International Space Station (ISS).

ISS sightings for Minneapolis.

You can enter your zip code to get precise sighting times here.

Mysteries of thundersnow?

I don't know if we'll see or hear any "thundersnow" with the system over the weekend, but NASA has some interesting info on a "lucky" encounter with thundersnow here.

TWC's Jim Cantore's "thundersnow moment."

"Walt Petersen and Kevin Knupp have traveled far and wide to study winter storms. They never dreamed that the most extraordinary one they'd see - featuring freakish thundersnow, a 50-mile long lightning bolt, and almost a dozen gravity waves -- would erupt in their own back yards. The storm hit Huntsville, Alabama, on the evening of January 9th.

"This incredible storm rolled right over the National Space Science and Technology Center where we work," says Knupp. "What luck!"

Snowstorms usually slip in silently, with soft snowflakes drifting noiselessly to Earth. Yet this Alabama snowstorm swept in with the fanfare of lightning and the growl of thunder.

Eyewitness Steve Coulter described the night's events: "It was as if a wizard was hurling lightning behind a huge white curtain. The flashes, muted inside thick, low hanging clouds, glowed purplish blue, like light through a prism. And then the thunder rumbled deep and low. This was one of the most beautiful things I've ever experienced.'"

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St. Paul: Anatomy of a flood crest

Posted at 8:41 AM on March 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

It appears the Mississippi River at St. Paul is at crest Wednesday morning.

The river has held steady near 19' for the past several hours.

Assuming the 19.1' level observed so far holds as the highest, it is the 8th highest flood of record for the Mississippi @ St. Paul.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

Here's what today's flood crest looks like from river cams in St. Paul, Minnesota today.

Harrriet Island today: (Click all images to enlarge)

Compare today's image (above) to the shot taken Monday morning (below).

Raspberry Island today:

Shepard Road today:

Compare today's image (above) to the shot below from Monday morning taken about 48 hours ago.

Pretty interesting to watch in St. Paul, but so far thankfully relatively uneventful!

Latest AHPS river info here.

Watching our next rain/snow systems:

After a nice Wednesday it looks like our next weather system slides in Thursday. The temperature profile with the system looks to be borderline rain/snow for the metro and much of Minnesota as it passes through.

There could be a changeover to mostly snow Thursday night, and there is the potential for a slushy inch or so on mainly grassy areas for much of the metro. Best chance for 1" to 3" appears to be northeast of the Twin Cities.

Stronger system Sunday & Monday:

Forecast models appear to be coming into line for a more potent system Sunday & Monday.

Latest indications are it could be mostly rain Sunday from the metro south, with a changeover to (a few inches of ?) wet snow by Monday.

It's too early to tell how accurate the models are with this system yet, but the potential is there for a good soaker which could help rivers toward a second crest sometime later next week.

Forecasts still highly variable for rain/snow Thursday & Sunday.

Stay tuned...

Big bad scary forecast models-not so scary today

Posted at 8:52 AM on March 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It takes restraint to be a weatherman sometimes.

Last night was one of those times. Let's hope the restraint is justified in the long run...

Last night's 0Z (evening) GFS model run painted a really scary picture for a big Sunday rain storm, followed by several inches of heavy wet snow Monday. Today? We'll it would be too extreme to say "poof" it's gone, but not by much.

GFS: From 6"+ snowfall down to 1" in next 5 days.

The overnight (06Z) GFS run is brining things back to reality a bit. It still spins up a low pressure system Saturday night into Sunday, but does not create the "bomb" fantasized by the earlier model run.

More like .6" liquid instead of 2"+??

Talk about a sigh of relief. Whew...

GFS having a bad month:

I don't verify numerical weather forecast models for a living... (Believe it or not there are people at NOAA who do that!) but I do use them everyday. It seems to me that the GFS (the primary U.S. medium range forecast model) has been out to lunch lately.

Remember the "mega storm" about 2-3 weeks ago that lead to some alarming headlines of 1'+ snow totals...only to end up as 1" at MSP Airport? Thank the GFS.

To say we've been seeing a high degree of "variability" in the GFS solutions in the 3-10 day range would be putting it kindly. More like wildly inaccurate solutions...often brewing up monster storms that turn out to be highly overblown.

I can't say why this is happening for sure. But seasonal variations usually lead to model trouble. The models have trouble gauging the transitions during spring and fall.

I can tell you this, it's no fun to be a forecaster staring down the barrel of a (fictional?) 1' to 2" heavy rain followed by a 6"+ snow event in early April...and having to swallow hard and not publish it in hopes that the model was just going through some growing pains.

Let's hope today's runs confirm the idea that we will get some rain Saturday night and Sunday...but a more manageable amount under an inch in most locations...followed by a few wet, wind driven snowflakes Monday on the colder backside of the low.

Rivers dropping fast:

It's good to see river levels dropping fast west of the metro today.

The Crow is down around 1 foot in Delano since Sunday.

The Minnesota is down 1.5 feet in Mankato, and is now receding in Henderson.

Yay!

The Minnesota is cresting today in Jordan.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest tomorrow in St. Paul well below the earlier threats of a flood rivaling the 1965 fiasco.

Two crests better than one?

There's plenty of talk about a "double crest" of 2nd crest for many area rivers this spring. This may be a good thing.

Moving 80"+ of winter snow melt down the rivers in two separate (but lower) surges may be a better outcome than having one big "mega crest" that could produce a flood of record for many river locations. Most flood protection can better handle two moderately high crests then one big flood that could top dikes & levees.

The double crests expected this spring may be a godsend.

Red River trouble?

The one exception to this scenario may be the Red River of the North. The big thaw never really hit the Red, and there's still plenty of water in snow to melt when things warm up later this week into the weekend. The Red may see one big crest...and the latest forecasts still put the chances high for a record flood on the Red at Fargo and other river points.

All quiet on the Red...for now.

We'll watch as that story unfolds over the next two weeks.

Southern Minnesota river outlook better?

It still looks to this forecaster like we may be able to thread the needle on avoiding record flood levels for the next week at least, even with some hint of river rises next week due to melting and additional rainfall.

Let's hope so.

Stay tuned...

Signs of spring?

Yes, the forecast modles are hinting at more 40s & 50s the next two weeks. But this guy really caught my eye this morning. A sure sign of spring?

Big fat robin sunning outside weather lab window Tuesday morning.

There's hope!

Crow & Minnesota dropping fast; rising water in St. Paul

Posted at 5:17 PM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

The latest AHPS hydrographs show the Crow & Minnesota dropping fast west of the Twin Cities Monday.

Meanwhile downstream, the Mississippi is rising in St. Paul.

Check out these images today from the St. Paul city webcams.

Watch how the water rises and creeps over the (Shepard?) road near the
Mississippi Monday in these 3 images as the day rolls on.

9:40am

3:16pm

4:59pm

For a rundown of today's flood trends,check my morning post.

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1st flood crest now; "best case" scenario this week?

Posted at 9:20 AM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

The first crest of the 2011 "flood wave" is moving into the west metro today.

-You can find all of the latest river levels and forecasts here.

-City of St. Paul flood info & rivercams here.

The Minnesota River has crested and is falling today at Morton, Mankato and Henderson.

The Crow crested Saturday at Mayer, and has fallen about 6" since then.

The Crow has reached a stable crest at Delano of 20' and is forecast to begin a slow fall today and may fall about 2 feet by Saturday. The 20' crest is the 4th highest flood of record (FOR) on the Crow at Delano, and is .3' below last year's crest reached on 3/21/2010.

Historical Crests for Crow River at Delano

(1) 23.25 ft on 04/14/1965
(2) 20.45 ft on 04/12/1969
(3) 20.30 ft on 03/21/2010
(4) 19.95 ft on 04/15/2001
(5) 19.25 ft on 04/08/1997

So far it seems the first wave of 2011 flood crests is passing without major incident. In fact, ice cream sales were reported to be brisk in Delano as flood gawkers came out to watch the flood in progress and frequented local shops & businesses.

-City of Delano Facebook page

-Live Delano web cam

Anatomy of an ice jam:

Check out this awesome video of an ice jam at the bridge in Delano Friday filmed by city crews!

"Bubble" moves downstream:

As the "bubble" or "wave" of water moves along on the Minnesota & Crow, rivers are still rising downstream.

Here are the forecasts for crests this week on the Minnesota.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 19.2' Wednesday at St. Paul. This would be the 8th highest FOR in St. Paul, about 1 foot above last year's crest.

St. Paul's Harriet Island takes a bath Monday.

"Best case" flood weather scenario this week?

Our Canadian high pressure and strong late March sun are combining to create what could be a best case weather scenario to keep rivers in check this week.

The air mass overhead is just perfect for nights below freezing to keep water in snow pack locked up. Strong sun wars days above freezing, allowing just a little runoff release into rivers during the day.

Looking ahead, temperatures will warm to near 50 by late week, and nights will be mostly above freezing late week. But most rivers in southern Minnesota will be falling by then. Though it looks like we may reach a 2nd crest next week on many rivers next week, overall levels may have dropped by as much as 2 feet or more by the weekend.

We're not out of the woods yet, and rivers are still running very high this week. But barring any major incidents or dike failures, we're beginning to see a scenario unfold where we just may be able to thread the eye of the needle when it comes to flooding over the next two weeks or so.

Precip chances:

There are two identifiable chances for precip over the next week.

The first one comes in Thursday, and may begin as (light?) snow before changing over to rain as milder air pushes north.

The second, and potentially more significant system looks to be mostly rain after an initial shot of snow..and rolls in Sunday.

It's early to pinpoint these systems, so stay tuned. If we get enough liquid precip (otherwise known as rain) with the Sunday system, it's possible we could see a second crest on rivers next week.

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Weekend chill, then warmer. Flood updates & flood cams

Posted at 6:25 PM on March 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The last weekend of March will really feel like....the first weekend of March.

Canadian high pressure is bringing plenty of sunshine, at a price. The sun also comes with a side of chilly days and sub freezing nights. Temps are running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend.

Metro averages are 46/28 this weekend. Expect highs in the lower 30s and lows in the teens this weekend in the south, with highs in the 20s north and lows near zero far north.

Warm up still on tap:

The weather pattern still shows signs of moderation late next week. It looks like a slow climb into the 40s, then a boost into the 50s by next Friday.

50s by next Friday? (Click to enlarge)

Snow stays south?

It looks like the southward trend of possibly significant snow next Monday night & Tuesday is favored. The GFS appears to keep the system close enough to brush the metro with light snow Monday night, and maybe produce a few inches along the I-90 corridor. The European model steers everything way south, keeping Minnesota high & dry.

On the edge of southern precip next week?

This is still worth watching...stay tuned.

Flood updates: Better south now, Red River trouble later?

We've been (rightfully) focusing on rivers in southern Minnesota with this week's weather causing rapid river rises. As we head through the weekend the flood forecast continue to be optimistic for the south. A few flood warnings have even been dropped for now along the St. Croix.

-Latest southern Minnesota river levels and forecasts here.

The good news may be temporary. A warm up next week, additional snow melt and possibel future rain could lead to a second crest in southern minnesota Rivers in April. Here's the briefing from the NCRFC.

Red River trouble ahead?

Now that the cold snap has improved the short term outlook in the south, let's talk a little about the Red.

What was good for southern Minnesota this week did not help the longer term forecast for the Red River. MPR's Dan Gunderson details the latest here.

Last week's thaw did not melt much snow in the Red River watershed. This week's storm dumped another 10" of snow on top of already water laden snow cover.

The cold snap will delay flooding on the Red even more, but that opens the door to a potential rapid April warm up and potential for heavy rains.

Here are some detais from Friday's update on Red River flooding from the Grand Forks NWS.

Key points for the Red River Basin, from south to north:

- All points along the Red River now have a better than 98 percent risk of major flooding.

- Wahpeton and Fargo, now have a more than 40-45 percent risk of exceeding 2009 flood levels. [in 2009 Fargo hit a flood of record at 40.84 ft, Wahpeton hit 3rd place at 17.5 ft]

- The flood risk at Halstad is back up to a 25 percent risk of exceeding 2009 levels.

- Grand Forks flood risk levels have increased by a foot or more due to a reduced margin of error for timing on Red River and Red Lake River crests, and increased Red River flows.

- Continuing north, Oslo now has a better than 60 percent risk for record flooding, while both Drayton and Pembina have had their flood risks increased only slightly.

On North Dakota Tributaries:

- The ND Wild Rice at Abercrombie has a 30-35 percent risk of 2009 scale flooding.
- The risk levels along the Sheyenne River from Valley City into Lisbon have increased by as much as a foot or more, to about a 25 percent risk of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels. Past Lisbon into Kindred, West Fargo, and Harwood the flood risks will likely meet or exceed 2009 levels (60-80 percent chance).
- Enderlin and Mapleton on the Maple River now have a 50 percent risk of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Goose River into Hillboro has jumped roughly a foot, as recent snowfall has more than exceeded recent melt and runoff.
- Otherwise, risk along the Forest, Park, and Pembina Rivers has dropped just slightly.

On Minnesota Tributaries:

- Risk along the Buffalo River has stayed steady, as recent snowfall has nearly equaled previous runoff.
- Risk along the MN Wild Rice at Hendrum is now nearly 50 percent of meeting or exceeding 1997's record [33.85 ft].
- Risk along the Sand Hill and Marsh Rivers is now around 30-40 percent of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Red Lake River has remained steady with Crookston having a 35 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels.
- Risks along the Snake and Two Rivers sub-basins have dropped by half a foot, while risk along the Roseau River has increased by about half a foot.

The bottom line for the Red is, the gun is still loaded so to speak. It's now all about weather in the next month, and how quickly or slowly the snow melts...and how much rain we add on top.

Flood cams:

Here are a few web cams to track river levels, and see what river conditions look like.

-City of ST. Paul webcams

-St. James Hotel web cam Red Wing

-Big Stone Minnesota River cam

-Northfiled River cam

Have a great weekend!

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Breaking: Flood forecasts lowered again!

Posted at 7:39 PM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

Here's some potentially good news in a sea of bad weather this week.

Most river level forecasts have been revised lower in the next week.

The latest updates from the hydrologists at the NCRFC in Chanhassen have lowered river level forecasts for some river locations as much as 3.5 feet from forecasts earlier this week.

The changes are largely due to the latest round of cold weather this week. The cold "locks up" moisture by freezing it in place on the landscape, instead of creating the runoff that would happen with above freezing temps.

You can see all the latest river data here, but here are a few select hydrographs for some key river points in southern Minnesota.

Keep in mind that specific forecast river crest "numbers" and timing are best estimates within a wider overall forecast range. Forecasts will likey be modified in the coming days as new data is fed into hydrologic models.

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Forecast rise to 18.9' next week.
(Down 3.5 feet from earlier forecast!)

Crow River @ Delano: Forecast crest at 18.8' Saturday night.
(Down 1.7 feet from earlier forecast) Forecast to fall below 17 feet again next week!

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Forecast crest at 25' Saturday.
(Down 2 feet from forecast earlier this week.)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Forecast crest at 737.4' Sunday.
(Down 1.1 feet from forecast earlier this week)

Minnesota @ Jordan: Forecast crest at 32' Monday & Tuesday.
(Down 1 foot from earlier forecast)

Minnesota @ Shakopee: Forecast crest 715.8' Tuesday & Wednesday.
(Down 1.2 feet from earlier forecasts)

Minnesota @ Savage: Forecast crest at 713.4 Thursday.
(Down from 0.6' from earlier forecasts)

St. Criox @ Stillwater: Forecast rise to 87.1' Thursday.
(Down 0.7' from earlier forecasts)

Let's hope these latest forecasts reflect an overall trend that keeps floodwaters a little more in check the next few days.

Next snow Tuesday?

I know, I know. I hate to even mention it. But after what looks like a few much needed dry days through the weekend, it looks like our next chance of snow could be on the horizon.

Remember models can and often do change dramatically 5 days out.

The GFS insists on brining another potentially potent low pressure system into the Upper Midwest by next Monday night and Tuesday. Take a deep breath and look at the meteogram below.

(Click to enlarge...if you dare)

Yep. That's 8+ inches of snow on the chart for the 12z morning run, but less from the 18z afternoon run. Remember, we don't issue snowfall forecasts 5 days in advance and there is some indication that system could steer south. Also the GFS has grossly overforecast snow totals for the last few events. And the European model seems to suggest the southward track which could leave Minnesota high and (thankfully) dry next week.

But be aware that there is at least the possibility of significant snow next Tuesday.

Hang in there; it still looks warmer by next weekend!

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Watching the flood: Cold may help prevent higher crests

Posted at 9:42 AM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The cold weather we're feeling may have a benefit. Slightly lower flood forecasts and river levels.

Before I launch into the potentially slightly good news, let's be clear about one thing. This is going to be (and already is) a major flood for many river locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin & North Dakota.

We've already lost one brave life fighting the rising waters. Roads are already closed or washed out. Thousands of hard working public employees and river residents are working hard building dikes and levees to protect us all from the rising water.

That said, there are some rays of hope regarding the flood scenario late this week.

1) Snow, not rain:

The fact that the second half of out Tuesday-Wednesday storm was snow and not rain is good news. Instead of running directly into area rivers, Wednesday's snow is still white sitting on your lawn. This is good news since we didn't add any more runoff once the rain changed to snow.

2) Sub freezing air:

We may be tempted to bemoan yet another frigid Canadian high pressure center pouring south into Minnesota after this rigorous winter. But that cold air we're feeling has a benefit. The sub-freezing air means the snow is still frozen on the ground, and not running into already swollen rivers.

Mostly sub freezing next few days. (Click to enlarge)

The freeze will "lock up" most of the potential runoff the next few days. This will give rivers a chance to move water downstream, without adding copious amounts of "new" runoff that would further spike river levels.

3) Dry forecast through Monday?

Our friendly neighborhood Canadian high pressure center will provide another benefit with regard to the flood scenario. It looks like it may steer another storm system to our south this weekend, and keep us dry through Monday.

That should give us 5 days to dry out without adding additional moisture to the flood scenario.

Latest flood forecasts: Levels down 1 to 2 feet!

While most rivers are still forecast to reach major flood stage this weekend or next week, the trend is encouraging.

Today's flood forecasts from the NCRFC lower crests between 1 and 2 feet for many area rivers. (Keep in mind the river level "number" is within a greater forecast "range" of possibility.)

Here's the latest:

Crow @ Delano: Projected crest at 19.1' Saturday-Sunday.
(Down from 20.5' or 1.4' lower!)

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Projected crest 26' Saturday.
(Down from 27' or 1' lower)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Projected crest 737.7' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 738.5')

Minnesota @ Jordan: Projected crest 32' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 33')

Minnesota @ Savage & Shakopee:
(Also down about 1 foot below previous crest forecast)

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Projected rise to 20.4' next Wednesday.
(Down from 22.4' or 2.4' lower than previous projection!)

St. Croix @ Stillwater: Projected rise to 86.13' next Wednesday.
(Down from 87.8' or 1.6 feet)

Next snow Tuesday?

The GFS is hinting that a low pressure system may track this way by late Monday night or Tuesday of next week. That could be our next shot of snow, unless the system steers south. It's way early to say this system will hit us for sure...just a possibility at this point.

Tuesday snow chance?

Cold lingers next week?

It looks like we may end up colder than average through next week with highs mostly in the 30s and sub freezing nights.

Warmer next weekend?

There is still some indication temps may rebound nicely the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. Highs in the 50s are possible, but we'll have to see if we get that warm as time evolves.

Potential rain (& snow?) week of April 4th & 5th?

Okay this is wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb. The GFS is hinting at the potential for significant rain possibly ending as snow during the April 4-5 time frame. Too early to make a call here (could be pure model fantasy at this point)...but the trend has been evident in more than one model run.

Double crest?

Add it all up, and you may have a "double crest" on many area rivers. One crest may occur this weekend or next week, and another could happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

This might not be a bad thing. It could keep overall river levels high for a longer period of time, but avoid a potentially higher flood crest in the process.

The downside of prolonged elevated river levels is that we're more vulnerable to a big storm that could dump heavy rain as the weeks go by.

Bottom line:

The cold is probably good news in the short run, but prolonged high river levels leave us vulnerable to flooding rains this spring.

Stay tuned!

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Storm eases; 5th snowiest winter; rivers rise

Posted at 5:25 PM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Well that was interesting.

Our gnarly hybrid winter-spring storm has wound down, but not before blasting much of the Upper Midwest with a stark reminder that it is still March in Minnesota.

Snowiest winter in 27 years!

With 4.4" of fresh snow at MSP Airport this is now the 5th snowiest winter on record at MSP with 84.6" this season.

Here's the text from Twin Cities NWS:

"Another 4.4 inches of snow fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport March 22nd into the 23rd (as of 1:00pm on the 23rd), pushing the seasonal snowfall total past the 1991-1992 seasonal total and into 5th place on the all time list. The 2010-2011 snow season is now the snowiest season since the record was set during the 1983-1984 season. The current seasonal snowfall total stands at 84.6 inches. The average seasonal snowfall in the Twin Cities is 55.9 inches."

Snowfall totals:

In general snowfall totals ranged from 2.5" (Burnsville) to 6.5" (Coon Rapids) across the metro.

Snowfall totals between 6" and 12" are common through much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Here are some updated snowfall totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 315 PM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR
EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.20 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0800 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
9.00 3 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 1204 PM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1210 PM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
8.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.50 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 1140 AM
7.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0100 PM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 4 NW ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
6.50 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 1040 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 2 WSW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
6.00 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0600 AM
5.50 DAYTON MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
5.50 4 E ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0700 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.20 FOREST LAKE 5NE MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
5.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1207 PM
5.10 5 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1057 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
4.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0700 AM
4.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
4.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0100 PM
4.40 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0900 AM
4.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1120 AM
4.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
4.00 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.50 1 E ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.40 1 WNW ROCKFORD MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.00 2 SSE MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0830 AM
3.00 MINNEAPOLIS LWR ST ANTH MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
2.80 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1050 AM
2.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.50 2 NW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM

The heaviest snow band set up as expected between the metro and Duluth, but did shift slightly south at the last minute.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
415 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY
------ ----------------------- -- --------------
14.50 SARONA WI WASHBURN
14.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER
11.50 WINTER WI SAWYER
11.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.80 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.50 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER
9.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE
8.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS
8.00 WEBSTER WI BURNETT
7.50 BREEZY POINT MN CROW WING
7.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON
6.80 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING
5.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS
1.50 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON
0.40 DULUTH AIRPORT MN ST LOUIS

The late southward shift in the snowfall caused the snow to mostly miss Duluth, but not the wind. Check out some of the peak wind gusts from in and around the "Windy Twin Ports."

PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR

56 MPH DULUTH AIRPORT
51 MPH CLOQUET AIRPORT
47 MPH SUPERIOR AIRPORT
70 MPH BLATNIK BRIDGE/MNDOT

Forecast: Cold but quiet

A sprawling Canadian high pressure system will set up over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest for most of the next week. This will keep us mostly dry...but temps will be running 10+ degrees below average.

Warm up 8-9 days away?

There are signs of a major warm up by late next week. Temps could return to the 50s and maybe push 60 by the weekend of April 2-3.

Rivers rise:

Rivers are still on the rise, with many crests expected this weekend or next week.

-Latest flood forecasts here.

Welcome to Minnesota. Floods, heavy rain, lightning, thunder, sleet, heavy snow, and 70 mph winds...and that's just in one day!

Rising rivers, rain, wind, snow and a blizzard

Posted at 5:29 PM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Rain, thunder, floods, high winds, heavy snow, and a blizzard. Just another day in Minnesota weather. I almost have to pinch myself and ask if what I'm seeing on the weather maps is real!

Let's take them one by one.

Flood Update:

-Latest river levels and forecasts here

I spoke with hydrologist Diane Cooper this afternoon from the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen. Here's the latest on how today's rains affected rivers and forecasts.

-This morning's rainfall was generally between .50" to 1" in most watersheds in southern Minnesota. That's almost twice the amount they had fed into the river forecast models in yesterday's forecast update. As a result (especially smaller) rivers rose more rapidly today. They have updated forecasts today to reflect the heavier overnight rainfall.

-NCRFC raised flood "categories" by one level for several river points. The complete text of today's latest flood warning is here.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FORTHE MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO.

* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED AT THIS
LEVEL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.3 FEET
ON MAR 29 2009.

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.1 FEET BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.5 FEET
ON JUN 24 1993.

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...WATER ENCROACHING ON STATE HIGHWAY 25
BETWEEN STATE HIGHWAY 7 AND CARVER COUNTY ROAD 122.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.8 FEET
ON MAR 20 2010.

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS SERVING HOMES CLOSEST TO
RIVER MAY BEGIN TO BACK UP.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.1 FEET
ON JUN 26 1957.

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED WING.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:23 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.1 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...RED WING MILLING COMPANY MAY EXPERIENCE
BASEMENT FLOODING AND BEGIN PUMPING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.4 FEET
ON APR 17 1951.

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.1 FEET BY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6 FEET
ON APR 9 1969.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ST CROIX RIVER AT STILLWATER.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 79.4 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 87.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 88.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 89.0 FEET...THE CITY PARK IN BAYPORT BEGINS FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 87.9 FEET
ON JUN 28 1993.

-NCRFC hydrologists raised the forecast levels of the following rivers by over 1 foot today. The updated forecasts now put several river points into "top 5 flood of record" territory.

Crow @ Delano

Forecast = 21.2' this weekend. (2nd highest flood of record)

Minnesota @ New Ulm, Mankato, Henderson, Shakopee

Mississippi @ St. Paul

The latest forecast for the increasingly mighty Mississippi at St. paul is for a level of 22.4 feet by next Tuesday...and still rising. This would be the 6th highest flood of record at St. Paul, and a full 4 feet above last year's crest on 3/24/2010!

-Diane also points out that, like meteorology, flood forecasting is not an exact science. Forecasting a flood crest a week out is like forecasting a snowstorm 7 days out. We may know it's going to snow, but the science does not allow us to accurately put out a forecast of say...12.5" a week in advance.

We give a range for snowfall forecasts, and hydrologists do the same for river levels. The "number" you see on hydrographs is just the best estimate of the specific level given available data at that point in time.

Next wave of precip moving through overnight.

Part II of our current storm is ramping up in Minnesota tonight. The next wave of rain and snow is here, and it still looks like the snowfall will be heavy overnight into Wednesday through eastern North Dakota, central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue.

Heavy snow band trending south?

There are some indications that the system's heavy snow band could shift 50 miles south overnight. This would place the southern edge of the heaviest snow closer to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities metro, and could increase snowfall overall in the Twin Cities.

Some models are leaning toward a 2" to 4" range for the metro by late Wednesday, with the potential for 6" in the far northern suburbs.

Bottom line: Rain changing to snow overnight. Heaviest snow band with a potential of 6" to 12"+ includes Fargo-Alex-Brainerd-St. Cloud-Hinckley-Mora-Duluth-Rice Lake.

Best forecast for metro appears to be 2" to 4" at this point, with heavier totals possible north metro. Expect a snowy rush hour Wednesday morning in the metro, with winter storm to blizzard conditions to the north.

Gale warnings and big waves on Superior:

Gale warnings are in effect for Lake Superior. Webcam here.

An angry Lake Superior rages in Duluth.

Stay tuned!

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Bad to worse: Heavy rain triggers rapid river rises

Posted at 9:44 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Here we go again, and the timing couldn't have been worse.

The "nightmare scenario" for flood forecasters and river residents is in progress in southern Minnesota. The last thing you want to see as rivers rise is a shot of heavy rain, but that's exactly what we're getting today.

****Flood warnings are in effect for most all area rivers and creeks in southern Minnesota. If you live near a river that is expected to flood this week, all necessary preparations should be rushed to completion today. This is a serious situation, and major to near record flood levels may be observed in the next week.****

-Latest flood warnings here!

Our hybrid late winter-early spring storm is delivering widespread rain with embedded heavy rain. The rain is effectively washing much of the remaining snow cover away into rivers and streams, providing a sort of "shock" or turbo boost to runoff and raising river levels more rapidly in the process.

458 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN...
CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
KANDIYOHI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 445 AM CDT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...PLUS
SATURATED SOILS AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING. CREEKS AND
STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY AS A RESULT. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS WARNING
WILL BE VALID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

Here are some rainfall reports and totals as of early Tuesday morning:

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES LGT RAIN 36 34 93 E20G26 29.92F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.33;

ST PAUL LGT RAIN 36 33 89 E10G18 29.97F FOG

CRYSTAL RAIN 36 33 89 E12 N/A FOG

BLAINE HVY RAIN 36 34 93 E22G29 29.94F

EDEN PRAIRIE LGT RAIN 36 34 92 E15G25 29.90F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.45;

LAKEVILLE HVY RAIN 34 34 100 E15 29.89F WCI 24

As of 7:30 am the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven has recorded .73" of rainfall. There's an interesting note here. My tipping rain bucket is located in a spot where some melting snow form a nearby snow pile may have added to the rain total.

Here's why it may not matter...the effect of the rain washing the snow into the gauge is the same effect occurring in the landscape where snow cover is present. While my actual rainfall may have been slightly less...the "effective" rainfall and subsequent runoff of .73" is probably closer to what's occurring in the landscape as combined rainfall and snow melt washes into area streams and rivers today.

Here's a look at storm total rainfall estimates fort he Twin Cities doppler radar Tuesday morning. Note the one inch plus totals southwest of the metro, right over the Minnesota River Watershed.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl STPrain.gif

Also note the heavy 2"+ totals northwest of the Metro near Big Lake, right over the Mississippi River watershed. This pretty much seals the fate for the Mississippi River, and forecasts for a potential crest next week at St. Paul continue to rise.

Smaller rivers respond with rapid rises today:

The overnight rains (and some ice jams) have already triggered measureable rises in smaller rivers today. Take a close look at the hydrographs below, and notice the river "spikes" as runoff quickly raises river levels. Also notice how the observed river levels outpace the latest river forecast trajectories for some rivers.

Mississippi level raised again:

All the extra water form the Crow, Minnehaha Creek & Minnesota River watersheds has to go somewhere, and it ends up in the Mississippi.

The latest hydrograph for the Mississippi in St. Paul raises the level of the river to 21.3 feet by Monday. This would be 3 feet higher than last year's crest of 18.38' on 3/24/10 which was the 8th highest flood of record.

This would be the 7th highest flood of record on the Mississippi at St. Paul, with a top 5 flood within reach.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

More top 5 floods ahead?

This week's rain and snow melt may send several area rivers into "top 5" territory by this weekend or next week.

Rain to snow today into Wednesday:

The rain snow line is setting up pretty much as expected today between the metro and Duluth. As the system draws in colder air, the rain will change to snow tonight, and move south. I expect all snow in the metro by early Wednesday morning.

It still looks like the heavy snow band, and a dangerous winter storm with blizzard conditions, will set up from Brainerd to Duluth. A wind whipped 6" to 12"+ could fall in there areas by late Wednesday.

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect.

In the metro it all depends on when the snow changes over. If it's early tonight, we could see totals from 2" to 4" in the metro, heaviest north. If it's later, the 1" to 3" will be more likely.

NAM snowfall output paints heavy snow band through central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Either way, expect a transition to a few inches of wet slushy snow in the metro Wednesday.

Stay tuned as we track river rises in the coming days.

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Duluth: Blizzard... Metro: Rain & thunder, then snow

Posted at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 12:15 am:

Radars show bands of showers and embedded T-Storms moving northeast through southern Minnesota. Expect heavy rain, lightning and thunder, and possible hail as the storms move through early this Tuesday morning.

The late model runs are cranking out an incredible 1.84" liquid precip for the Twin Cities with this storm. Most will fall as rain Tuesday, but indications are about .41" could fall as wet snow Wednesday. That could translate into 2" to 4" of wet slushy snow by late Wednesday in the metro.

Late night NAM Cobb method yields 2" to 4" snowfall totals for Metro Wednesday. (Click to enlarge)

Stay tuned.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

***Original post 5:35pm Monday***

After a pretty quiet month, the March Lion is set to roar.

A hybrid winter/spring storm looks like it will roar the loudest from North Dakota through northern and central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. A combination of heavy snow and wind Tuesday night and Wednesday will slam cities and towns including Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, Brainerd, Duluth, Hinckley, Hayward and Rice Lake.

Winter storm warnings are flying for North Dakota, central and northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

The system:

Low pressure is spinning out of the Rockies headed for the Upper Midwest Tuesday. This a good track to bring heavy precip to Minnesota.

Low track across Iowa. (Click to enlarge all graphics)

Thermal profile:

The storm is forecast to track east through Iowa. Milder air with this hybrid winter/spring system will mean the initial waves of precip Tuesday will be mostly rain. As colder air filters in Tuesday night & Wednesday, precip will change over to snow from north to south.

It looks like most of the precip will fall as snow in Brainerd and Duluth (mixing with rain to start), and most will fall as rain ending with some wet snow in the metro.

Timing:

Expect waves of rain to move in after midnight into Tuesday morning and continue on and off as the changeover to snow occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday from north to south.

Thunder?

There could be enough rising air, what meteorologists like to call "upward vertical velocity"... to produce a few thunderstorms Tuesday, especially afternoon & evening.

Severe risk?

SPC has included southwest Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather. This is the first time this year any part of Minnesota has been included in a severe risk area.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl SPC.gif

Welcome to spring.

Rain & Snowfall totals:

The system should deliver widespread rain to southern Minnesota and heavy snow up north.

The NAM model is cranking out as much as 1'+ for the metro and points north.

The band of heaviest snow appears to be setting up from Fargo through Brainerd to Duluth. It looks like 6" to 12" of wet wind driven snow may fall in the heavy snow band. Areas around Duluth could see 12"+!

At this point, I think 1" to 3" of wet slushy snow could fall in the metro Wednesday. The best chance fo 3" will be in the norhtern suburbs.

Flood impacts:

An inch or more of rainfall will have an impact on rising rivers. NWS Hydrology has factored this in to the latest set of river forecasts Monday, and the latest forecasts are here.

Overall most river forecasts were raised between 1 and 2 feet later this week into the weekend.

Stay tuned as our next storm moves into Minnesota.

Flood Update: River forecasts raised 1 to 2 feet

Posted at 3:54 PM on March 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Update 4pm:

Updated river forecasts from NCRFC are in reflecting this week's anticipated rain & snow. The bottom line is that hydrologists have raised (most but not all) river forecast levels about 1.5 feet for most rivers by this weekend.

See the updated forecasts here.

***Original post 9:03 am***

They're busy crunching some new numbers today at the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen.

As a new storm system rolls into the forecast for Minnesota Tuesday & Wednesday, the potential for heavy rain and snow will likely send river crest forecasts higher. River forecasts through the weekend did not include the latest batch of precipitation.

Wintery weather makes a comeback this week. (Click to enlarge)

The system will bring rain late tonight into Tuesday morning. Forecast models are cranking out some heavy rain totals with the system, over an inch in some cases. The latest NAM run wrings out 1.23" of liquid precip for the metro, most of which falls as rain.

NAM wrings out .50" to 1"+ precip through Wednesday.

As the system pulls in colder air Tuesday night, rain will change to a wind-driven wet snow from north to south. Winter storm watches are flying for most of the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. A blizzard watch has been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

Watches posted. (Click to enlarge)

After a rainy Tuesday that could include bouts of thundery rain, It looks like the metro will see a changeover to wet snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. It's still a little early to pinpoint Metro & southern Minnesota snowfall totals with this developing system, but the potential for a few inches of slushy accumulation is there early Wednesday.

NAM snowfall pastes northern Minnesota with 6"+ but keeps heavy snow north of metro...for now.

Bottom line: Expect rain Tuesday, possibly heavy totals of 1" in some places... changing to snow by Wednesday.

Flood forecast changes:

Heavy rainfall totals of 1" will make for some changes in river forecasts this week. As you might guess, most of those changes should be to raise projected river levels later this week.

If the models are right and rainfall totals 1" or more, that could send a "shock wave" of water with rapid runoff into rivers in southern Minnesota. It may also serve to "flush" some of the moisture still lingering in soils above rivers quickly into river systems, causing more rapidly rising river levels this week.

Here are the main things to watch with regard to river levels and forecasts as this critical week unfolds.

-All creeks & rivers in southern Minnesota are on the rise this week.

-Many rivers and creeks are forecast to reach moderate to major flood levels this week.

-An additional 1"+ of rainfall may create rapidly rising rivers and creeks this week, and the potentially localized nature of heavy rains will be difficult to account for by hydrologists.

-Watch for (rapidly?) changing flood forecasts this week form the NCRFC.

While all rivers will rise this week, the biggies to keep an eye on this week seem to be: These forecasts do NOT include rainfall this week, which could push levels even higher.

The Crow River @ Delano:

The Crow is forecast to rise to "major" flood stage of 18.6' by this weekend. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Crow @ Delano -Current forecast 18.6'

24.95 Water begins to flow over the dike on the west side of town.
21.85 Water may begin to flow over the bridge on Bridge Street.
21.05 Water begins to flow over the dike on the east side of the river at Second Street.
20.3 Water seeps through east bank along N River Street/CR 17.
18.95 Sanitary sewers may need plugging at this stage to prevent water from backing up into homes.
18.35 The southwest part of Delano begins to experience flooding.
16.85 Storms sewers may need plugging to prevent river water from backing up into city streets.
15.35 Water begins encroaching on Mill Avenue north of Watertown.
14.85 Minor basement flooding may begin to occur at homes closest to the river.
13.85 Carver County Road 123 between Mayer and Watertown becomes flooded.

The Cottonwood @ New Ulm:

The Cottonwood is also forecast to hit "major" flood stage of 17.1' by Thursday. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Cottonwood @ New Ulm: -Current Forecast 17.1'

13 Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood Street west of the river.
11 Flood waters begin to impact low lying areas...and some roads along the river.

The Minnesota River @ Mankato, Henderson, Jordan, Shakopee & Savage.

Forecasts going into the weekend had the Minnesota rising to moderate flood stage at locations between Mankato & the Twin Cities.

The forecast river levels (as of early Monday am) would mean top a 10 flood of record on the Minnesota including:

Mankato: 25.5' (10th highest)
Henderson: 737.6' (7th highest)
Jordan: 31.5' (9th highest)
Shakopee: 715.3' (8th highest)
Savage: 711.7' (8th highest)

Mississippi River:

The Minnesota feeds into the Mississippi, so any adjustments for higher river levels this week on the Minnesota will affect flow (and river levels) into the mighty Misssissippi.

Minnehaha Creek:

One (underreported?) aspect of this year's flood threat is the potential for rising waters and urban flooding on Minnehaha Creek and other metro creeks. The Minnehaha Creek Watershed District has a nifty flood map that shows potential for flood along the creek's path this spring.

(Click to enlarge)

You can enter an address and check out flood potential for you neighborhood here.

You can sign up for flood updates in Carver County here.

Keep an eye out here for the latest changes in river flood forecasts as we move into this week.

Flood update encouraging; "Supermoon" shines bright!

Posted at 5:20 PM on March 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It may be too early to breathe in a big sigh of relief just yet, but the latest batch of river forecasts from NWS Friday give us room to breathe a bit easier.

The latest NWS flood updates are out, and the news is encouraging.

Friday's river forecasts stop well short of the threshold of record river levels on most area rivers. While many rivers approach "major" flood stage by late next week, the previous forecasts of record levels appear to be unlikely, at least for now.

It's still relatively early in the process, and the amount of rain over the weekend combined with the potential for rain and or snow next week could raise the flood threat. Flood watches and warnings have been issued for many area rivers.

Here are the latest forecasts for some major river points in southern Minnesota as of Friday afternoon. (Specific forecasts for the Red River have not been issued yet)

Mississippi River at St. Paul: Friday's forecast timeline has the river still rising through next Friday to a level of 15.1 feet. This forecast keeps the level 10'+ short of record territory, and well below last year's crest of 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010.

(Click all images to enlarge)

The previous forecast had a 48% chance of reaching the record flood level of 26.40 ft reached on 04/16/1965. Friday's forecast seems to suggest the Mississippi will plateau well short of that territory this spring.

Here are the top 15 crests for the Mississippi at St. Paul. The current forecast for next Friday would tie for the 13th highest crest on record.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(11) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957
(12) 15.45 ft on 05/04/1975
(13) 15.10 ft on 04/10/1994
(14) 14.51 ft on 06/23/2001
(15) 14.07 ft on 06/26/1984

Still the river may continue to rise well into April. Longer range outlooks show increasing chances for higher river levels the first two weeks of April. (Note: This simualtion was last updated as of February 28th.)

Minnesota River:

With the exception of Henderson, most river forecast points along the Minnesota appear to be encouraging.

Crow River at Delano:

This is some good news. Previous forecast for the Crow indicated a 35% chance of reaching record flood stage for the Crow in Delano.

St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The forecast of 84 feet at Stillwater by next Friday is good news. Though the River is still rising at that point, the lift bridge isn't closed until the river reaches 86 feet.

Bottom line: While flooding is expected as early as next week, the latest batch of river forecasts do not bring river levels to near record levels in most locations.

Lighter than average precipitation in the first half of March has helped lower porjected river crests. Only .33" of precip has fallen at MSP Airport in March.

Weekend shot of rain:

Rain and or snow in the next week will have an impact on rivers, but the effect is unclear at this time.

It looks like our next shot of rain will roll in Saturday night. This will be a significant rain, with forecast modles cranking out anywhere from around .25" to as much as .80" in one or two shots Saturday night into Sunday.

Stay tuned for further updates as we head into early next week.

"Super" bad moon on the rise:

Some call it the "Supermoon." You just may call it brighter than usual. The closest full moon (perigee) to earth in 18 years will mean the full moon appears 14% bigger and 30% brighter this weekend than when the moon is farther away (apogee).

We may not see the full moon on Saturday night with clouds and rain, but check it out tonight and Sunday evening if you can!

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Why flood gauges vary locally

Posted at 6:33 PM on March 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

As we head into flood season in the next week, you may be confused by some of the river levels you hear on area rivers. You're not alone.

Here's an example.

On the Minnesota River at Granite Falls "flood stage" is 888 feet.

Just up the river in Montevideo, flood stage is 14 feet.

Why the difference?

At Granite Falls the gauge is based on elevation above sea level. In Montevideo, it's based on what's called a "zero point" somewhere on the river locally. I know, I don't get it either.

The best way I've heard this explained is that through the years, gauges have been added at different locations using different local measurements to set the flood gauge. Historically gauges have been different, and local control has been the deciding factor in how a gauge reads at any location.

My partner in weather crime (and former Twin Cities NWS Chief) Craig Edwards tells me that many years ago there was an effort to standardize river gauges nationwide. That effort fell to the usual politics and red tape surrounding the cost of replacing many of the river gauges, and with local officials wanting to keep things as they were because they felt their local residents understood that current system.

I'll be posting more info in the coming days to help with interpreting river levels and forecasts. In the mean time, here's a guide to hydrologic information on the web from NOAA.

You can access the latest river hydrographs and flood forecasts for southern Minnesota rivers here.

Red River forecasts info is here.

Spring Floods: Why the dice are loaded

Posted at 6:29 PM on January 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

It's no surprise that the NWS came out with a potentially dire preliminary flood forecast today. All the ingredients are already in place for major spring flooding on virtually all rivers in the Upper Midwest.

The NWS is right to say if you live anywhere near a river or stream and are at risk of being flooded, buy flood insurance today! It takes 30 days for flood insurance policies to kick in.

Here are the updated preliminary spring flood outlooks from NWS.

-Twin Cities (Mississippi, Minnesota & Crow Rivers)

-Red River Valley

Here's the headline form Grand Forks NWS:

"For the Southern Red River Basin: Current spring flood outlooks indicate that much of the southern basin, including the Fargo-Moorhead area, already has a higher risk of spring flood levels than were seen in advance of the 2006 or 2010 major flood events. There is a 20 to 25 percent chance that areas near Fargo-Moorhead could see flood levels approach the record levels set back in the early spring of 2009. Continued much above normal snowfall through the remainder of the winter will likely continue to drive that risk slightly upward in later outlooks."

Here are three main reasons why major flooding is highly likely along Minnesota's rivers this spring.

1) A wet fall:

You may recall the unprecedented record floods in September that sent some rivers to all time record highs. Late summer and autumn rainfall was several inches above average in much of the region. That means rivers, streams, lakes and soils were already at capacity going into the freeze.

In fact 2010 was the 2nd wettest on record in Minnesota history, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Top Ten Annual Mean Precipiation Records for Minnesota
1895-2010

Rank Value Year
---------------
1 33.92 1977
2 33.64 2010 *
3 33.27 1965
4 33.22 1968
5 32.54 1991
6 32.32 2005
7 32.31 1905
8 31.68 1986
9 31.64 1993
10 31.57 1903

Snow melt this spring will send already brimming rivers quickly higher.

2) Heavy winter snowfall:

One look outside the window tells you all you need to know about Minnesota's snow pack. Our series of massive winter storms have blanketed the Upper Midwest with heavy snow cover.

Snow depth exceeds 16" in much of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

The water content (snow water equivalent-SWE) in that snow pack ranges from 3" to 8" in much of the region.

Water content in snow pack (snow water equivalent) shows 4" to 8" in Minnesota & Red River Valley watersheds.

That's like 6" rain storm waiting to be unloaded into area rivers once melting begins in the spring. The damage is already done; so to speak...that snow isn't going away before spring.

3) La Nina:

The deck is already stacked in favor of major spring floods. La Nina may be the "wild card."

Our strong (but fading?) La Nina episode has delivered on the statistically favored colder than average winter in the Upper Midwest. There is also a bias toward cool wet springs in la Nina years. A wet spring could add more fuel to the fire in the spring flood scenario.

If heavy spring rains occur, the rapid snowmelt will send rivers into shock flood mode.

What to watch for:

The weather in the next 8 weeks is critical, and will determine how severe spring flooding will be.

Worst case scenario:

-Heavy late winter snows with high water content. The "Panhandle Hookers" that wind up in the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region bring wet heavy snows. We've been lucky so far that while many of our storms have produced heavy snowfall totals, the snow:water ratio has been relatively dry...often around 15:1. A few more wet storms will add a lot of water to already charged snow pack.

-Late thaw...rapid spring warm up. If the snow continues to accumulate, then we get a rapid period of warm weather in March that will send torrents of water into area rivers in a shot period of time.

-Heavy spring rains. A big slow moving spring storm with heavy rains would also send a "shock wave" of high water into area rivers. This is the nightmare scenario that will keep flood forecasters and river residents up at night over the next two months.

Best case scenario:

There are several factors that could mitigate flooding this spring.

-Below average snowfall through March

Our 55.4" of snowfall this winter has put the Twin Cities on pace for a top 10 snowfall season. If we get average snowfall for the rest of the winter season (about 22") that would put the metro at about 77" for the season...and vault us into top 10 territory and put us near the 5 snowiest winter threshold of 81.3".

If we are somehow able to continue the current "snow drought" into the spring and end up below that 22" average...that would help...some.

-Gradual thaw?

If we see a nice slow warm up this spring, that would help discharge snow melt into area rivers a little at a time. Ideal scenario? Days above freezing and night below freezing to generate a nice slow "controlled" discharge of snow melt.

-Little spring rain

Another factor that could mitigate spring flooding would be a dry spring. Unfortunately there is a bias toward wetter than average springs in La Nina years. Anything can happen though. A nice dry March and early April would help...a lot.

Stay tuned!

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Minnesota top five weather events 2010

Posted at 3:04 PM on December 28, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Minnesota River

The State Climate Office has assembled their top five weather events in Minnesota for 2010. Heavy rainfall in September raised the Minnesota River level beyond flood stage at many locations. This saturated soil and high water levels on the Minnesota River heading into the late fall will likely enhance the potential for flooding of the spring snow melt.

Minnesota top five weather events for 2010 as compiled by the State Climate Office.
CE

Minnesota River cresting at Jordan

Posted at 8:18 AM on September 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River

The flooded Minnesota appears to be cresting at Jordan today.

The river level is topping out around 33.1 feet. That's very close to the 3rd highest flood on record for the Minnesota at Jordan (33.11') and the first time a top 5 flood has occurred in fall.

The bubble of floodwater now rolls down river toward Chaska, Shakopee and Savage, where the river is expected to crest over the weekend.

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is expected to crest Saturday at 18.4 feet in St. Paul. This should put about 1 foot of water onto Harriet Island.

You can follow the flood on the City of St. Paul webcam here.

September swan song:

September goes out today on a mild note. After yesterday's 74 degree high, it looks like the month will close with temperatures in the Twin Cities running near average at -0.8 degrees.

It was a wet month, with another epic weather event...the flood event in southern Minnesota which produce 6" to 12" rainfall in under two days.

(click to enlarge image)

The Twin Cities picked up 5.53" (+2.98") of rainfall for the month, and we now stand at 26.43" (+2.14") for the year. If we finish the year wetter than average, it will be the first time since 2007.

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Minnesota River: All time flood record...In September!

Posted at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

They don't teach this stuff in meteorology school.

Record floods are supposed to happen in April in Minnesota.

The Minnesota River surpassed the all time flood of record today at Henderson, southwest of the Twin Cities. The river level reached 739.83 feet today. That's above the previous flood of record of 739.65 feet set back on April 11th 1965.

(click for bigger images)

Here are the previous top 5 floods of record for the Minnesota at Henderson.

Historical Crests
(1) 739.65 ft on 04/11/1965
(2) 739.50 ft on 06/23/1993
(3) 739.20 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 738.50 ft on 04/28/2001
(5) 738.17 ft on 04/10/1969

The Minnesota continues to rise as the bubble of water from last weeks flooding rains moves downstream. Here are the latest forecasts for the south metro.

Folks along the Minnesota River in the southwest metro should remain alert for rising waters this week. Here is the latest list of flood related road closures from MNDOT.

Good News for St. Paul?

The swollen Minnesota River pours into the Mississippi before it reaches St. Paul. Thankfully the heaviest rains last week were confined to southern Minnesota and the Minnesota River watershed. That means the mighty Miss will be able to absorb much of the floodwater without producing record levels on the relatively well protected Mississippi in St. Paul. Still, "major" flood stage will be reached and Harriet Island may submerge this week.

Here are the expected flood impacts at various river levels for the Mississippi in St. Paul.

18 Warner Road may become impassable due to high water.
17.5 Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
17 Secondary flood walls are deployed at St Paul Airport.
14 Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to experience flooding.
PH

Rare fall floods set records

Posted at 8:20 AM on September 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

The term "spring flood" is getting a rival this September.

For the first time on record, some southern Minnesota rivers will set top 5 floods of record during fall this week. Last week's torrential rains capped off a wet September with rainfall totals anywhere from 5.5" (metro) to over 12" (south central Minnesota).

Four of the current top 5 record floods on the Minnesota River occurred in spring. The other occurred in June. This will be the first time a top 5 flood has occurred in September. You can track current and forecast river levels here.

The Cottonwood River at New Ulm came within a foot of the all time flood of record last weekend.

Check out some of the expected flood crests on the Minnesota River this week.

Mankato: Cresting today at 28.1' (4th highest flood on record)

Historical Crests
(1) 30.11 ft on 06/21/1993
(2) 29.09 ft on 04/10/1965
(3) 28.20 ft on 04/26/1881
(4) 27.61 ft on 04/10/1997
(5) 27.07 ft on 04/12/1969

Jordan: Crest Wednesday at 32.7' (5th highest)

Historical Crests
(1) 35.07 ft on 04/11/1965
(2) 33.52 ft on 06/24/1993
(3) 33.11 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 32.85 ft on 04/14/1969
(5) 32.24 ft on 04/12/1997

Savage: Cresting Thursday at 718.8' (5th highest)

Historical Crests
(1) 721.80 ft on 04/15/1965
(2) 719.70 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 719.29 ft on 06/25/1993
(4) 718.10 ft on 04/19/2001
(5) 717.86 ft on 04/13/1997

St. Paul: Crest Saturday at 17.9' (Not in top 5)

Historical Crests
(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997

Mild dry weather will help:

The forecast is favorable for flood ravaged communities and rain soaked farm fields over the next two weeks. Minnesota will be on the east side of a ridge of high pressure, which means generally mild and dry weather for the next 10 days to two weeks.

After a wet September, it looks like we'll close the month on a dry note and open October on the mild side.

NWS lowers river crest forecasts in St. Paul, Stillwater

Posted at 2:51 PM on March 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River

It appears our extended string of dry weather is having a benefit. River leves are dropping like a rock.

Hydrologists at Twin Cities NWS lowered the forecast crest for the Mississippi River at St. Paul today. The previous crest forecast had the river topping out at 19.5 feet later this week. The current forecast has the river staying pretty much where it sits today; at 18.47 feet. That's about a foot lower than previous forecasts.

The trend of lower river level forecasts also extends to the Minnesota and St. Criox Rivers.

The lower crest forecasts are good news for those who have been fighting back rising rivers. It could potentially mean an earlier reopening of the St. Croix Lift Bridge in Stillwater which remains closed and affects so many commuters between Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Wit no major rain or snow in the forecast, it appear we are on the verge of turning the corner on the 2010 flood season. The forecast maps continue the trend of manly dry and warm weather in the coming weeks. If that trend continues, we'll be talking more about grass fires in the coming week than floods.

Flood Update: Glass half full?

Posted at 5:00 PM on March 23, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

Things are looking up in flood ravaged Minnesota these days.

Even with high water now and some crests still to come, many area rivers have passed crest levels and are beginning to fall at a good clip. No doubt the continued 12 day (mostly) dry weather pattern is helping accelerate falling river levels.

Here's a look at some good signs where rivers have crested and are dropping fast.

As the bubble of high water continues to roll down the Minnesota and Mississippi through the Twin Cities, the main areas of impact this week are along the St. Criox at Stillwater and along the Mississippi and Minnesota in the Twin Cities.

Fortunately the weather will cooperate and if current flood protection and forecasts hold, we may dodge what could have been a much bigger flood bullet in 2010.

Perfect timing: Dry weather pattern prevents flood catastrophe

Posted at 8:19 AM on March 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The Crow River in Delano rises just below the bridge deck on Bridge Street in Downtown Delano Saturday. (Photo courtesy Twin Cities NWS)

Better lucky than good.

The dry weather pattern of the past 11 days has likely prevented what could have been a major flood catastrophe on many area rivers. We've had no significant rain or snow in the Upper Midwest since March 11th. Those 11 dry days come at a critical time when rising rivers were most vulnerable to even more rapid rises due to rainfall super charging river levels.

The weather maps look favorable for our mostly dry pattern to continue for about another 10 days. It appears there is a chance for a significant rain event along about April 2nd or 3rd. By then, river levels should have fallen enough that a good shot of rain may not create too much in the way of additional flood woes.

CPC 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook favors continued dryness for the Upper Midwest.

If we had received heavy rain over the past 10 days, we might be fighting all time record high levels on most area rivers today, instead of top 10 floods of record.

After the perfect storm of winter snow, spring rain and record warmth that caused our floods this spring, we can be thankful that the weather pattern shifted into dryness during this critical 20 day stretch.

Flood focus turns toward Twin Cities

Posted at 3:44 PM on March 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The Red River has reached crest at Fargo. So far, so good. Things seem to be holding well and barring a major failure in flood protection. Vigilance is still required on the Red, but it's looking like Fargo may escape widespread major damage again this year.

The Crow has crested in Delano. The St. Croix is forecast to crest just above flood stage this week in Stillwater, and hopefully will not reach major flood stage.

Now, as all the water from the Crow, Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers converge on the Twin Cities, the flood focus turns to the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers in the Twin Cities area. Here are the latest forecasts for the Minnesota and Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers this week.

The 5 day precipitation outlook still looks good and dry for the Upper Midwest this week.

Let's hope things keep going as well as they have so far with the excellent lead time provided by flood forecasters at the Twin Cities NWS, and the great planning and work by local officials who have executed a solid flood protection plan in 2010.

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Weather wanes as part of flood story

Posted at 6:30 AM on March 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The tale is nearly told for how weather played a role in the floods of 2010.

First the snow. Then persistent cold to keep the snow in place this winter. Then the rain and record temperatures in March.

Most of the snow has now melted in Minnesota, and that means most of the water that was locked up in the snow pack is now working through the river systems. The damage is done so to speak.

With no major rain or snow events in sight for the next week or so, the focus and action shifts to events on the ground. Levee by levee, sand bag by sand bag, the flood story now becomes more about events on the ground than weather in the air.

The primary questions and potential areas of concern this weekend are:

-Will the dikes and levees hold on the Red River in Fargo and Morehead as the waters reach their crest?

-Will the Crow River in Delano behave and stay within the projected crest forecast?

Crow River in Mayer near final crest?

-Will changes be made to the Minnesota and Mississippi forecast crests this weekend?

-Will ice jams cause surprise areas of flooding?

NWS meteorologist Seth Binau stands near a flood gage on the Mississippi. (Photo courtesy Craig Edwards)

Meteorologists are about to step aside and let the hydrologists take over to mop up this flood season. The resilient residents and government officials in river towns are doing their part to keep the rising waters at bay.

Nature has certainly reminded us this year that winter weather and spring floods are to be respected in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Let's hope there are no more surprises in the coming days.

Big Picture: Top 10 flood year on area rivers

Posted at 1:50 PM on March 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

As the potentially good news of a lower crest forecast for the Red River at Fargo sinks in Friday, a look at the big picture shows this is already an historic flood year in the Upper Midwest.

This will be the top 5 to 10 flood of record for many area rivers. Some locations, like the Crow River at Cosmos and Mayer have set the 1st or 2nd flood of record for those locations.

Here are some forecast river crests and where this year's flood level falls historically.

Crow River at Mayer:
Friday's level: 16.52' = 2nd highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 19.23 ft on 04/13/1965
(2) 16.50 ft on 04/14/2001
(3) 16.48 ft on 04/11/1969
(4) 16.05 ft on 04/07/1997
(5) 16.00 ft on 06/23/1957
(6) 15.70 ft on 04/10/1952
(7) 13.93 ft on 05/04/1986
(8) 13.90 ft on 04/30/1975
(9) 13.76 ft on 04/05/1979
(10) 13.59 ft on 03/29/1982

Red River at Fargo:
Forecast crest 37.5' = 5th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 40.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(3) 39.57 ft on 04/17/1997
(4) 37.80 ft on 04/11/1882
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(6) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.65 ft on 04/16/1952

Minnesota River at Shakopee:
Forecast crest: 717.3' = 7th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 721.80 ft on 04/15/1965
(2) 719.70 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 719.29 ft on 06/25/1993
(4) 718.10 ft on 04/19/2001
(5) 717.86 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 717.40 ft on 04/29/2001
(7) 716.20 ft on 04/16/1952
(8) 714.38 ft on 04/14/1951
(9) 709.70 ft on 06/22/2001
(10) 708.40 ft on 04/07/1998

Mississippi River at St. Paul:
Forecast crest: 19.8' = 7th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(9) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(10) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957

So why was this a record flood year for so many locations?

-Deep snowpack exceeded 2 feet in much of west and southwest Minnesota. Anywhere from 4" to 8" of water content was stored in the snow pack. This area is the headwaters for the Red, Minnesota and Crow Rivers. Both the Crow and Minnesota feed the Mississippi before they reach St. Paul.

February 18th DNR snow cover analysis shows deep snow in western and southern Minnesota.

-The rainfall in early March exceed half an inch in many location. Rainfall is the quickest way to melt snow cover, and trigger rapid runoff into area watersheds.

-Finally record and near record temperatures some 20 degrees above average kicked in to continue rapid snow melt. The warm weather in the past 10 days or so sealed the deal for area rivers. The Twin Cities is running a full 9.9 degrees above average for March through the first 18 days.

Flood Watch: Kayaking in Mankato

Posted at 10:02 AM on March 19, 2010 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Weather Watchers

Michelle Parsneau lives about five blocks from the Minnesota River in downtown Mankato. She'll be giving us occasional updates on what's going on in her community. All photos taken by Michelle.

The weather continued to be gorgeous and sunny. This is quite odd. Two weeks ago, the snow was up to my knees in the front yard, with piles of snow on every street corner, making crossing the street a bit hazardous. Now, there is no snow at all in my yard. It is just gone. The ground is actually more solid and less squishy than yesterday. Looking out my front door, nothing looks at all out of the ordinary. There are no visible preparations for flooding, or anything of the sort in my neighborhood. I continue to receive e-mails from the city regarding trail closures, county road closures, and procedures that officials are following as they watch both the river and the flood wall.

Kayakers in the Minnesota River at Mankato.

At about 5:30 yesterday, I headed downtown to the river to see if anything was happening there. I saw much more foot traffic than usual, as people want to see what is going on. As I checked out the brand new Riverfront Park, I was lucky enough to see people kayaking down the fast moving river. They came out at the closed canoe access point, so I asked them a few questions. They kayak regularly in the area, and were obviously excited about getting the opportunity to experience the river at this height and speed. They had a really hard time gauging how fast they were traveling, compared to normal conditions, saying that it had to be at least 15 miles per hour. They had been to Land of Memories Park, earlier in the day, kayaking above trails, campsites, and recreation areas that are usually on solid ground. The park has been fully closed, and they said it was quite the experience to be kayaking there.

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Flood Watch: Quiet in Mankato

Posted at 5:10 PM on March 17, 2010 by Molly Bloom (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Weather Watchers

Michelle Parsneau lives about five blocks from the Minnesota River in downtown Mankato. She'll be giving us occasional updates on what's going on in her community.

The mood in the neighborhood seems good. Everyone is happy about the gorgeous sunshine, while I personally can't help but wonder if it is going to accelerate ice melting, adding to the river. My husband, a professor at Minnesota State, reports that some students who commute from out of town have told him that due to possible flooding, they're not sure if they will be able to make it to class in the days ahead. But, even at that, he says that not too many students have said anything.

At this point, I really think people either don't think the river will get that high, or assume the flood wall will prevent any problems. I know that in the last year there have been a few news items about national evaluations of the wall and maintenance costs, so I think people feel secure that the wall has been properly cared for and that they will be safe.

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Browns Valley staying dry despite leaky diversion channel

Posted at 4:34 PM on March 17, 2010 by Melanie Sommer
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

Browns Valley, on Minnesota's western border, was flooded badly in 2007, and has been working on a diversion project since then. Floodwaters again threatened the city near the South Dakota border this week, but things would have been a lot worse without a diversion channel that was built to control the level of the Little Minnesota River.

Homes and businesses in the city stayed dry this time, although an ice jam forced water to blow a large hole to the diversion channel. Water washed away about 1,800 square feet of an embankment and about 25 feet of roadway. You can read more about the town's fight against the floodwaters, and listen to an interview with Browns Valley Mayor Jeff Backer, here.

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