Updraft Category Archive: Flooding

Storms firing West & North; Better Memorial weekend outlook?

Posted at 3:40 PM on May 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

Update 5pm:
Storms now firing west of metro from New Ulm to Glencoe, Buffalo & Monicello. 65 mph wind gust recorded at New Ulm at 4:35pm.

MPX: NEW ULM MUNI,MN (ULM) ASOS reports gust of 65.0 knots from W @ 2153Z

Source: WxUnderground

3:40pm Update:

So far storms are firing along the frontal zone through western and central Minnesota west & north of the metro.

Storms firing along frontal zone in west-central & northern Minnesota.
Source: WxUndeground

SPC says there is a 40% chance of a watch in western MN, and an 80% chance in Iowa.

Source: NOAA/SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SD AND WRN/CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231904Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF ELEVATED AND NEAR-SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD AND WRN/CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

The metro appears to be storm free this afternoon and possibly until early evening. The bulk of rain and storms may arrive in the metro overnight.

Still keeping an eye on the potential for development in southwest Minensota this afternoon.

PH

Flash Flood Watch through 1pm Thursday

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Stalled front = Heavy rainfall totals

2" to 4" rainfall totals likely for NE-central and southern MN by Thursday evening

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Quick Look Forecast: From updated NWS site coming soon (Click to enlarge)

Slight severe risk Especially from a Fairmont-Mankato-Twin Cities line by late PM & evening

"EHI Index" indicates isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, especially near the Iowa border

Slightly better outlook evolving for Memorial Day Weekend?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Stormy Wednesday:

If today's weather were a song, the classic T-Bone Walker blues jam "Stormy Monday" would do...even on a Wednesday.

A stalled cool front and low pressure riding along the front the next 24 hours will keep heavy rain, thunder, and a slight risk of severe weather in the forecast.

A flash flood watch covers most of central Minnesota and the metro until 1pm Thursday.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH 100 PM THURSDAY...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EFFECTIVE FROM 700 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 100 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE THE TWIN CITIES...SAINT CLOUD...MANKATO...WILLMAR AND REDWOOD FALLS.

A COLD FRONT THAT WAS DRAPED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO VARY FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING OVER THREE INCHES.

Heavy "Rainers:"

The stalled front will focus waves of showers & T-Storms along and near the front. A parallel upper flow means the front will sit, and storms will "train" fro SW to NE over the same ground...like individual boxcars riding along the same track. Each storm will dump rain over the same general areas as they move northeast.

The result will be some heavy rainfall totals by Thursday afternoon. I'm looking at data that suggests 2" to 4" for many locations, with the potential for 4"+ in a few spots.

Source: NWS data via wx.caster.com

The front should finally blow east into Wisconsin by Thursday evening, ending the rain threat.

Severe Risk?

Clouds may limit the severe risk for a time today, but sunshine along the eastern end of the front will destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and evening.

SPC has laid out a slight risk for severe storms, with the primary threats being wind and hail from the metro south & west.

Source: NOAA SPC

Looking at soundings today, there is enough low level wind shear forecast today that I can't rule out the possibility of isolated supercells capable of producing a tornado later today.

The "EHI" (Engergy Helicity Index) suggest enough shear or "spin" in the lowest 3,000 feet of the atmosphere to generate tornadoes.

PM forecast "sounding" near Manakto, MN. Note on right how winds twist from SE near ground to SW then west with height.
Source: twisterdata.com

Source: twisterdata.com

The highest chance of an isolated tornado appears to be in Iowa, but a slight threat also runs from near Fairmont, through Mankato to near the Twin Cities this afternoon and evening.

Keep the weather radio handy later today and this evening.

Memorial Day Weekend: Forecast Improving?

The latest model runs suggest a slightly better outlook for the Twin Cities this Memorial Day weekend.

If the latest GFS solution verifies, we may sneak in a couple of "nice" days this weekend in the metro, but northern Minnesota may stay in higher rain & T-Storm coverage..

The GFS suggests we may work into the "warm sector" Sunday in the metro, meaning a warm sticky Sunday with highs near 90. The latest trend suggest the cool front could trigger storms Sunday night, and the front may push east by Memorial Day...leaving a partly cloudy, cooler and less humid and more pleasant day in its wake for Memorial Day.

We'll see, I'm not totally sold on the better outlook yet. If the front stalls, Monday could still be a washout, but the trend is encouraging. What could possibly go wrong on a summer holiday weekend in Minnesota?

Here's a stab at the weekend forecast based on the latest model changes.

Friday: Mostly sunny and pleasant! High 74. Light NW winds.

Saturday: Scattered showers & T-Storms. High near 73. Wind E 10-20 mph. Choppy lakes.

Sunday: Stormy north. Hazy hot & humid south & metro. High near 90 metro, 70s north. Metro storms Sunday night. Wind S 5-15 mph.

Memorial Day: Scattered showers north. Partly cloudy south. Breezy cooler & less humid. Metro high near 70, 60s north. Wind NW 8-18 mph.

Stay dry today...and keep an eye out for storms PM & evening!

PH

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A dent in the drought

Posted at 6:49 AM on May 7, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Rainfall

Drenching rains the first week of May have helped some of the drought-stricken areas of Minnesota. Rivers and lakes are responding to the two to five inches of rain that fell in the past week.

Rainfall past seven days, ending 1155pm CDT Sunday
Source: NOAA NWS

The Minnesota River response at Henderson shown in this hydrograph:

Source: NOAA NWS

The Mississippi River in St. Paul is rising:

Source; NOAA NWS

The drought status previous to the heavy weekend rains in southern Minnesota:

Source: Minnesota State Climatologist Office

Sunshine returns today with temperatures near seasonal normals.

Looking ahead to Saturday, perhaps a graduation day, the temperatures are expected to be mild. Thinking about planting the annuals? Why not!

1 p.m. temperature forecast from NAM for Saturday, May 12th:

Source: Twisterdata.com

-Craig Edwards

Flooding rains and severe thunderstorms likely in southern Minnesota

Posted at 1:14 PM on May 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Severe weather, Storms, Thunderstorms

Conditions have come together for bouts of showers and thunderstorms for the next 24 to 36 hours over Minnesota. The most intense storms are likely in the southern half of the state. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for an area of central and southern Minnesota.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...KANDIYOHI...MCLEOD...MEEKER...
RENVILLE...SIBLEY...STEARNS AND WRIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CARVER AND SCOTT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
BLUE EARTH...BROWN...FARIBAULT...FREEBORN...LE SUEUR...
MARTIN...NICOLLET...RICE...STEELE...WASECA AND WATONWAN. IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...REDWOOD. IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...POPE...STEVENS...SWIFT AND YELLOW
MEDICINE.

Heavy rains have already drenched this area.

The NOAA Prediction Center has its eyes on Minnesota and South Dakota for very heavy rainfall totals, exceeding more than three inches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been posted by the Storm Prediction Center until 7 p.m.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

At 1:05 p.m. the National Weather Service received a report of one inch diameter hail 3 miles east southeast of New Ulm.

Track severe storms and flooding rains from the NWS in Chanhassen.

--Craig Edwards

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MN: Taste of fall ahead? GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

Posted at 8:41 AM on August 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall, Flooding, Hurricanes

The weather maps are looking a little scary in the weather lab this morning.

Last night's north metro flash flood dumped 2" to 3"+ rain totals in the north metro. Some rainfall reports below, including nearly a month's worth of rain in Roseville!

MPX: 5 Nw Roseville [Anoka Co, MN] nws employee reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.21 INCH at 11:00 PM CDT -- heavy rain fell during the evening on tuesday...august 16.

MPX: Wsw Waverly [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.10 INCH at 06:43 PM CDT --

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 83 / 65 / 0.85
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 84 / 62 / 1.42
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 80 / 54 / 1.66
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 77 / 56 / 0.72
MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 84 / 59 / 2.07
FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 83 / 62 / 0.14
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 79 / 55 / T
STP : ST PAUL MN : 84 / 62 / 1.01

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints heavy 2" to 3" rainfall totals from Tuesday night in the north Metro.

The deluge put the Twin Cities into the plus category for rainfall in August. MSP Airport has picked up 2.87" this month, and that's .52" above average for the month to date.

Signs of fall ahead?

I know...don't shoot me I'm just the messenger!

We really shouldn't be surprised to see some "blue lines" on the weather map in late August. We're not talking about a headlong launch into fall like weather just yet...but the GFS is showing signs of cooler air pooling up in Canada in the next 7-14 days.

There's still plenty of warm summer like weather ahead as we move into State Fair time next week. But there are indications that before Labor Day, we could see some brief "incursions" of cooler air push south into Minnesota.

Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s in late August???

It's too early to write off summer yet, but it is that time of the year when we turn one eye to Canada to see what's coming.

GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

This one falls under the weather category of "too early to be reliable, but not to pay attention to."

For the past 2 days now the GFS model has been insistent in bringing a hurricane to somewhere near south Florida by late next week. The models have varied in exact location from run to run, but have been consistent in the notion of a (potentially major?) hurricane approaching Florida next Thursday or Friday.

There is a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic that bears watching, and the GFS is likely picking up on this and steering it westward next week.

This may be on NHC's radar behind the scenes, but it's just too far in advance to post anything on the potential...at least not yet.

Is this GFS "model fantasy" or a weather fact that we may have to pay attention to in the next week? Don't bet the farm on this one....but keep an eye out for possible headlines concerning the potential for a Florida hurricane in the next week.

PH

Rain Today: Weekend heat; Shutdown & climate data

Posted at 7:05 AM on July 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Flooding, Heat, Rainfall

The next weather system is pushing rain into Minnesota Thursday morning. Some numbers:

.95" NAM model rainfall output for MSP Airport next 60 hours

3"- 4" NAM rainfall output for areas near Morris, Alexandria & St. Cloud to Hinckley

2" possible rainfall totals favoring north metro next 48 hours

Finding the "sweet spot"

This is where weather forecasting gets dicey. Specifically, flash flood forecasting.

As hotter, wetter air pushes north over the next 48 hours, the precise location of surface warm frontal positions and upper air low tracks take on added meaning. If the warm front is overhead, and the upper low passes over the top of you...get an ark! You could get 3" to 4" of rain.

If you're 50-75 miles either side....maybe an inch of rain? No big deal.

The latest model trends suggest the "sweet spot" for heavy rainfall may lay out across central Minnesota. A line from Morris through Alexandria, St. Cloud to Hinckley seems like the favored area to pick up a multi inch deluge.

NAM model paints heaviest rain bands between the metro and Duluth.

Duluth and the Twin Cities lie on either side...maybe an inch of rain or more? Again, this is if things pan out that way. The heavy rain area could easily shift north or south.

Either way, be ready for showers & T-Storms moving into western MN tonight and spreading into eastern MN (including Duluth & the metro) by Thursday morning.

Some of the rain will be heavy. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, with a lower chance for hail and damaging winds.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest storm total rainfall radar estimates

Up Next: Weekend heat wave

As the hot dome of air pushes north this weekend, temperatures will soar. We'll see more heat advisories and extreme heat warnings in Minnesota.

Check out some of the forecast heat index values starting Sunday!

State of Minnesota shutdown affects MN climate info users:

"Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you got 'til it's gone."

That's how this forecaster and other local "mets" must feel about the shutdown of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group website. It's a royal pain for us as forecasters not to have the excellent data, but the bigger perspective is that there are several dedicated climate professionals (and thousands of other dedicated state employees) out of work through no fault of their own!

We are so fortunate to have this amazing group of dedicated climate specialists in Minnesota. I know I'm missing somebody but the excellent work of dedicated professionals like Jim Zandlo,Greg Spoden, Pete Boulay, and Dr. Mark Seeley bring our rich Minnesota climate history to life. It is extremely valuable to have a basis for comparison to current weather patterns and records like the one provided by the MN Climate Working Group web site.

The site is currently unavailable due to the government shutdown.

I asked my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley about this today. His reply below.

Hi Paul,

Mark

There are some other sources available, but none as comprehensive as the Minnesota Climatology Working Group site.

I sure hope it comes back soon!

PH

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37 in Hibbing! Flood Watch Tonight: Record heat by Sunday?

Posted at 8:55 AM on July 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Heat

Did we just sleep through August and wake up in September?

A decidedly fall like air mass slipped into Minnesota early Wednesday morning. Temperatures plunged to near frosty levels in northeast Minnesota with 37 degrees in Hibbing and Embarrass!

REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

: MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

:ASOS SITES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 72 / 49 / 0.00
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 72 / 40 / 0.00
BRD : BRAINERD : 73 / 51 / 0.00
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M
HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 70 / 37 / 0.00


:......NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.......
:
EMBM5: EMBARRASS..............: DH0600/ 75 / 37 / 0.00
KABM5: KABETOGAMA.............: DH0700/ 69 / 42 / 0.00
LEIM5: ORR 3E.................: DH0600/ 67 / 38 / 0.00

: MAX MIN
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

DLH : DULUTH MN : 72 / 49 / 0.00
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 72 / 40 / 0.00
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 78 / 61 / 0.00
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 72 / 56 / 0.04
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 76 / 55 / 0.00
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 75 / 56 / 0.00
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M
HIB : HIBBING MN : 70 / 37 / 0.00
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 77 / 59 / 0.01

The Twin Cities observed morning minimum temps of 61 degrees was almost balmy by comparison.

Perfect 10 Wednesday?

Wednesday may be the Chamber of Commerce weather special for Minnesota. As the cool & comfy high pressure ridge slides east, plenty of sunshine and an east wind will mean a very pleasant day for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Next System: MCS & heavy rain tonight?

A thunderstorm complex in South Dakota Wednesday morning will move slowly east into western Minnesota lat tonight. The system should expand and could intensify right over (where else?) Minnesota in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Flood watches are posted for much of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH IS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MORA AND RUSH
CITY...SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES...AND MANKATO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD...ONE AND ONE HALF...TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL MAKE MANY LOCAL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING IF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS HIGH CAN BE REALIZED.

Models paint two different scenarios for location of the heaviest rains. The first trends put the heavy storms from Redwood Falls to Mankato and the Twin Cities. More recent runs have played it further north, from Fargo to Brainerd, Alexandria and St. Cloud.

There is the potential for heavy (and possibly flooding) rains under the heaviest cells. The difference in location could mean the difference between more general .50" rainfall totals and 2" to 3" totals.

NAM model pains heavy 2" to 4" rainfall totals in central MN!

Here's an excerpt from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion early Wednesday morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

".DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME AREAS INTO FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY THE HEAT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
KEEP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. 850 MB DEW POINTS SURGE TO 12 TO 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THICKNESS RIDGE WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REGENERATE AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD PLACED THE FOCUS SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST MODEL PLACES THE FOCUS WEST AND
NORTH...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH."

The flood watch goes into effect late tonight. In the metro, it looks like the heaviest rainfall may occur early Thursday morning. It could be a wet rush hour in the Twin Cities Thursday!

Weekend Heat Wave: Record highs & heat index of 100 to 115?

A massive sub-Tropical high pressure ridge will expand and build north into Minnesota this weekend.

GFS model 500 millibar upper air chart shows massive high pressure "heat dome" building into Minnesota by Sunday.

The result will be a barbaric heat wave. Highs may approach 100 degrees Sunday & Monday, and the heat index may reach 110 to 115 in some areas.

Heat index may approcah 115!

This is going to be serious heat folks. If we hit 100 again this year, it will be the first time MSP Airport has recorded two 100 degree days in 23 years! Anyone remember the sizzling summer of 1988? We had 44 days at or above 90 that summer!

By the end of July this year we could be over 20 days of 90 degree heat in the metro and counting. The annual average is 13 days.

Prolonged heat wave may last two weeks!

The upper air charts show a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central USA through the rest of July. The intensity of the heat may wane, but it looks like temperatures at or above 90 degrees may occur through July.

"Hot nights" the real killer?

I remember covering the Chicago Heat Wave in 1995. Over 700 people died in that brutal heat wave. In the aftermath, local health and NWS officials cited the extremely hot overnight temperatures as a major factor in heat related deaths. Temperatures stayed above 80 degrees for several nights. That kind of heat doesn't give our bodies a chance to cool off at night. Heat related illness can be cumulative, so get inside a cool place and get some rest in air conditioning if at all possible in the coming heat wave.

In times like this, Air conditioning is a real life saver, not simply a convenience!

PH

"Nocturnal T-Storms" = Metro Flood Watch Thursday AM

Posted at 5:26 PM on July 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

After a nice dry stretch of weather, get ready for the next batch of heavy thunderstorms in southern Minnesota.

Another major storm complex, possibly an MCS, is expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This time, locally heavy (and potentially flooding) rainfall could be the primary feature of the storms.

Twin Cities NWS posts a flood watch overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

The system:

As the hot dome of high pressure nudges back north into Minnesota Thursday, an upper air disturbance will ride along the periphery of the expanding heat dome into southern Minnesota.

The system will likely trigger a developing MCS with torrential rains overnight.

NAM model develops heavy storms Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Slow movement may produce multiple inch rainfalls in some areas of central & southern Minnesota by Thursday noon. Some 1" to 3"+ rainfall totals are quite possible with this system.

Depending on which model you look at, the heaviest rainfall may be focused in central Minnesota near St. Cloud & Brainerd, and/or near the Twin Cities.

GFS cranking out 3.5" of rain for the metro early Thursday!

"Nocturnal" Thunderstorm Season Ahead:

Wednesday night's storms may be the opening salvo in what meteorologists sometimes call the "nocturnal thunderstorm season."

Some info about nocturnal thunderstorms:

-They tend to develop and strengthen at night

-They tend to develop and favor warm fronts at the surface

-They tend to roam around the northern periphery of hot high pressure domes.

-They are climatologically favored in late July & August.

Nocturnal storms can produce copious flash flooding rains. Be alert for possible flash flooding in the wee hours of Thursday morning!

PH

This is summer? Epic Minot flood; EF-0 Tornado confirmed

Posted at 5:13 PM on June 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding

Summer arrived Tuesday with tornado warnings heavy rain. Wednesday features April-like temperatures in the 50s & 60s and a raw northwest wind.

The unseasonably cool weather pattern may have Minnesotans saying, "If this is summer, give me back spring!"

81 degrees-average high temperatures for June 22nd

64 Twin Cities temp at 4pm today

17 degrees below average!

Wind chill? in June??

It's hard to fathom, but our unseasonably strong and chilly spring like storm system in June will leave us feeling the chill through Thursday.

The incredibly potent out of season mid-latitude cyclone streteches for Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Take a look at the massive system on Wednesday's MODIS Terra visible satellite image.

Temperatures under the comma shaped head of the storm over Minnesota are running a full 20 degrees cooler than average for June 22nd. It's in the 50s in much of northern and central Minnesota!

Factor in the wind and it actually feels like upper 40s in some areas...and this is June!

Forecast improves Friday:

The slow moving system should finally begin to pull out of Minnesota Friday. Look for a return to sunshine from west to east...and temperatures will recover into the 70s in most areas.

Iffy Weekend?

The weather maps look like somebody put a target right over Minnesota. The jet stream has been close to or directly overhead for months now, and the next weather wave may race in Saturday with another chance of spotty showers.

The wave should clear Minnesota by Sunday. If everything works out right, Sunday could be the sunnier, warmer more summer like day this weekend with highs near 80 in the south.

Epic flooding in Minot, ND:

Combine high runoff from heavy winter snows and the wettest May & June on record since 1945 in North Dakota and what do you get?

An epic flood with tragic consequences unfolding this week in Minot, North Dakota.

The Souris River is reaching record flood levels this week, and is expected to breach Minot's flood protection by Thursday. As many as 12,000 of Minot's 40,000 residents are evacuating, as sirens wail to sound the warning.

The Souris begins in Saskatchewan and flows southeast into Minot before turning back northeast into Manitoba. It is part of the Red River drainage system.

The river is already 7+ feet above flood stage in Minot, and is expected to rise another 3-5 feet this week.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
447 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH
DAKOTA...

DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH
DAKOTA...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD AFFECTING RENVILLE COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR FOXHOLM AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER ABOVE MINOT 4NW AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT MINOT BRWY BRDG AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT LOGAN AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT SAWYER AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT VELVA AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR BANTRY AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE AFFECTING BOTTINEAU COUNTY
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AFFECTING MCHENRY AND BOTTINEAU
COUNTIES
FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN INCLUDING SHERWOOD...FOXHOLM...MINOT
4NW...MINOT BRWY BRDG...LOGAN...SAWYER...VELVA...TOWNER...BANTRY...
WESTHOPE...FOXHOLM...WILLOW CITY...RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

.A SHARP RISE ON THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD WAS OBSERVED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE USGS MEASURED
A FLOW OF 21900 CFS ON THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RISE PAST SHERWOOD OCCURRED FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ROUTING WATER FROM ESTEVAN
TO SHERWOOD AT THESE HIGH LEVELS. THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
FLOWS INTO LAKE DARLING HAS PREVENTED THE POOL ELEVATION FROM
DROPPING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND WILL NECESSITATE THE
RELEASES TO BE INCREASED TO 18 THOUSAND CFS ON JUNE 18TH AND 22
THOUSAND CFS ON JUNE 22ND. THE CURRENT RELEASE SCHEDULE IS TO
HOLD AT 22 THOUSAND CFS THROUGH JUNE 29TH.

WITHIN THE CITY OF MINOT...LEVEES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER TOPPED
AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. THE SOURIS RIVER LEVEL THROUGH
MINOT IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE UNTIL WATER HAS FILLED THE STORAGE BEHIND
THE LEVEES.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STAGE-RATING CURVE AT RECORD LEVELS...
ONE SHOULD ADD OR SUBTRACT ABOUT A HALF A FOOT FROM THE FORECAST
LEVELS PROVIDED BELOW TO ARRIVE AT A PLAUSIBLE RANGE OF RIVER
LEVELS

Minot is the latest crisis point in what's really been a year of bad (and record) weather for the Upper Midwest.

EF-0 Tornado Confirmed in Anoka County

NWS survey team of Matt Friedlein & Todd Krause confim Tuesday's tornado in Coon Rapids & Baline.

Tuesday afternoon saw numerous rotating thunderstorms across southern and central Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. Some of these had deeper rotation in favorable environments, prompting tornado warnings. Numerous funnel clouds and one tornado were reported through early Tuesday evening. That tornado has been confirmed as an EF-0 in intensity. In addition, thunderstorms briefly trained over St. Cloud producing very heavy rainfall over a short amount of time, creating flooding in the downtown.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
457 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...ANOKA COUNTY TORNADO RATED AN EF-0...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM ASSESSED THE
DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED
NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ANOKA COUNTY IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AREA.

EVENT...EF-0 TORNADO.

LOCATION...FROM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. HIGHWAY 10 AND
CENTRAL AVENUE IN BLAINE...NORTHWEST TO ABOUT ONE HALF MILE
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 14 AND HANSON
BOULEVARD IN FAR NORTHERN COON RAPIDS.

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY FIVE AND A HALF MILES.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 TO 80 MPH.

MAXIMUM WIDTH...75 YARDS.

MOST INTENSE DAMAGE...NEAR A DOZEN LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN
AN AREA OF TOWNHOUSES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 10 AND
POLK ST. INTERSECTION IN BLAINE.

TIMING...THIS IS STILL BEING ASSESSED. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THE TORNADO PRIMARILY OCCURRED SOMETIME BETWEEN 310 AND 330 PM.

REMARKS...THE DAMAGE DONE BY THE TORNADO WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY TO
TREES. IN THREE INSTANCES...FALLEN LARGE TREES HAD LANDED ONTO
HOUSES. THERE WERE A COUPLE CONCENTRATED AREAS...INCLUDING JUST
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN BLAINE NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATH...AND THEN A LESSER ONE NEAR THE END OF THE PATH JUST NORTH
OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 14 IN COON RAPIDS. OTHERWISE...THE TREE DAMAGE
WAS MAINLY SPORADIC. NUMEROUS FALLEN TREES WERE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE STORM PATH...SOME EVEN BEING REVERSE OF IT...HELPING TO
INDICATE THIS WAS A TORNADO.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF SECOND TORNADO OCCURRED JUST AFTER
THIS ONE...OR THAT THIS TORNADO LASTED SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE
COMMUNITY OF ANDOVER. THUS FAR...THE NWS HAS RECEIVED NO
INDICATION OF DAMAGE IN ANDOVER AND THE DAMAGE SURVEY SAW WHAT
APPEARED TO THE BE THE END OF THE PATH IN COON RAPIDS.

THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS...LAW
ENFORCEMENT...AND MEDIA WHO PROVIDED OR RELAYED CRITICAL REPORTS
TO THE NWS IN REAL TIME. IN ADDITION...THE NWS WOULD ALSO LIKE TO
THANK THE MANY MEDIA WHO RELAYED THE WARNING INFORMATION ON
TUESDAY. FINALLY...A SPECIAL THANK YOU TO THE ANOKA COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WHO HELPED ASSIST IN THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

$$

FRIEDLEIN/KRAUSE

PH

Best weather in 7 months! Last frost behind us?

Posted at 9:07 AM on May 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Springtime

Welcome to the "best" stretch of weather in Minnesota in over 7 months!

"Good" weather is relative of course, but with 5 dry days in a row this week this does look like the longest sunny, dry and mild run of weather since last October & November.

Twin Cities forecast "meteogram" shows temperatures rising this week!
(Click to enlarge)

Some numbers:

5 sunny dry days in the 60s & 70s this week (Sunday through Thursday)

6 dry but cooler days in late march (March 24th -30th, temps 30s & 40s)

7 months since we've had a dry spell this long with temperatures in the 60s. (October 28th to November 9th)

"Omega Block" brings great spring weather:

We call this upper air pattern an "Omega Block" in meteorological terms. Troughs in the west and east bracket a big bulging ridge of high pressure centered over Minnesota this week. This "high amplitude" wave pattern brings sunny dry & milder weather to Minnesota.

"Omega Block" pattern brings dry weather this week.

A chorus of lawn mowers.

The hum of lawn mowers was loud and consistent Sunday. The first dry day in a while finally allowed people to get out and cut the grass, many for the first time this year. I cut the weather lab grass for the first time this season Sunday. May 15th is the latest I can ever remember for a first lawn mowing in the metro. Usually you hear mowers going in late April, but not this year.

I also had the chance to put the weather lab "yacht" in Sunday on Lake Minnetonka. Okay, yacht is a bit generous; it's more like a classic Lund putt putt. But it does get me to and from sailing nicely, and allows me to take "observations" of lake conditions and water temps on Minnetonka.

High water warnings are in effect for Lake Minnetonka this spring. You must operate with minimum wake anywhere inside of 600 feet from shore to prevent erosion this spring.

I can't remember seeing Minnetonka this high for many years.

Minnehaha Creek is raging thanks to a dishcarge of 250 CFS from Gray's Bay Dam on Lake Minnetonka.

A check of the boat docks in Carsons Bay shows only about 30% of all boat slips occupied as of May 15th. That's a really low number thanks to our reluctant spring.

Cool May so far:

-1.5 degrees cooler than average in the metro.

88 degrees last Tuesday on May 10th, promptly followed by severe hailstorms and a tornado in St. Michael.

32 degrees at Twin Cities Airport on May 3rd. That is the coldest temp recorded this month. Could that have been our last frost in the spring of 2011?

April 29th - the average date of the last 32 degree reading at MSP Airport.

Looking at the weather pattern 2 weeks out, it is highly likely that our last metro frost is now behind us. Frost is common in northeast Minnesota well into June.

Wet weekend ahead?

Just in time for the weekend, the next rainmaker appears to be headed this way. A slow moving low pressure trof may spread showers and T-Storms in here as early as Friday. The unsettled weather could last into the weekend. Yikes!

GFS model paints rain in Minnesota Saturday morning.

Southern flood woes continue:

At least our flood threat is passed in Minnesota for now. Some of that same water that was sitting on our snow covered landscape is now surging through Mississippi and Louisiana.

Morganza Spillway opens in Louisiana.

Vicksburg, Mississippi exceeded the all time flood record on the Mighty Miss over the weekend.

The slow motion flood disaster will continue this week.

Enjoy our sunny, "perfect" May weather this week!

PH

May morning sky show; Mississippi raging

Posted at 6:23 PM on May 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Flooding, Mississippi River

If you're an early riser, you're in for a rare treat in the morning sky this month.

A rare grouping of planets in the eastern sky just before sunrise will delight sky watchers all month. Venus, Mercury, Mars and Jupiter are all closely clustered in various configurations this month in the morning sky.

Looking due east about 30 minutes before sunrise, here's what you'll see on clear mornings this month. The planet configurations will vary day to day, but all 4 planets should be visible all month long.

On May 30th & 31st, the razor this waning crescent moon will join the planets for a grand finale.

Here's a great skywatchers guide for May from UA's Flandrau Science Center.

Mississippi Raging: Flood woes spread south

As waters begin to all to slowly recede in Memphis the flood focus on the Mississippi shifts south to Mississippi and Louisiana over the weekend and next week. Record flood levels are forecast.

Latest river forecasts here.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...CONTINGENCY FORECASTS FOR MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO HISTORIC...AND IN SOME
CASES RECORD BREAKING...RISES ON BOTH RIVERS. AS THIS WATER MOVES
DOWNRIVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

ALL OF THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ACCOUNT FOR A FULL OPENING OF THE BONNET CARRE
SPILLWAY LOCATED IN ST. CHARLES PARISH. THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP MORE GATES OF THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY
WITH EVENTUALLY ALL 350 BAYS EXPECTED TO BE OPENED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CURRENTLY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE
MORGANZA SPILLWAY IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH. HOWEVER...THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER IS PROVIDING CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR
A POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY

Thanks so much to all of you for all your support during this week's member drive on MPR.

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Rainy Thursday, St. Michael tornado survey, chilly fishing opener

Posted at 9:12 AM on May 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Rainfall, Springtime

They say there are no guarantees in weather, but there are a few things we seem to be able to count on in Minnesota in May.

-We'll likely get our first bouts of severe weather

-We usually hit 80 for the first time

-It seems the fishing opener is usually cool and wet

Check, check, and check this week.

Rain returns:

The next low pressure wave is lifting north into Minnesota today. Bands of showers wrapping around the low will spiral through, and gain intensity this afternoon.

It looks like most areas will see between .25" and .50" of rainfall by late tonight. Southwest Minnesota may as much as 1"+ as the system spins through today.

A cooler northeast wind is dropping temps into the 40s and 50s.

We may catch a break in the rain Friday before more rain wraps in Saturday. There may be some 1"+ totals through Sunday.

NAM 84 hour rainfall totals show a soggy 1" to 2" potential.

Chilly soggy fishing opener:

It sometimes seems fishing opener weekend is plagued by cool windy wet weather. This year will fully live up to expectations.

A cool low pressure system will swirl over Minnesota this weekend. Rain should be on the increase Saturday, with weather gradually improving from north to south Sunday.

Here's the breakdown.

Friday: Windy & cool with mixed sun south & west, showers north & east. Highs in the 40s north and 50s south. Wind NE 10-22mph with choppy lakes.

Saturday: Windy & cool with scattered showers increasing statewide. Highs 40s north & 50s south. Wind NE 15-25 mph. Again, choppy water with some bigger waves on the big lakes.

Sunday: Weather improves from north to south. Sunny with lighter winds north. Showers south. Afternoon highs in the 60s from Brainerd north. 50s south. Wind NE gradually diminishing north to 5-12 mph. NE 10-20 mph south.

Weather tip: Find a quiet bay on the north end of your favorite lake where wave action will be less. A fireplace in the cabin will be very nice this weekend!

Good luck on the opener. Stay warm and dry, and remember those lake water temps are still hypothermic! With the cold water, wind and waves, life jackets are not optional this weekend.

Minnesota's first tornado of 2011: St. Michael EF1

Damage to a home in St. Michael. (Photo by Twin Cities NWS)

The damage survey is in and it confirms what we saw Tuesday. Minnesota's first tornado of the year tore through St. Michael Tuesday evening.

Here are the details from Todd Krause and the survey team at the Twin Cities NWS.

Location: St. Michael, MN

Intensity: EF1 rating with top winds of 90 mph. Most of the damage was EF0 with 70-80 mph winds.

The details from Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...PRELIMINARY RATING ASSIGNED TO THE ST MICHAEL AREA TORNADO...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT WAS DONE TODAY
FOR THE STORM THAT OCCURRED IN FAR EASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY ON
TUESDAY EVENING. HERE ARE THE PRELIMINARY DETAILS...WHICH ARE
SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVIEW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EVENT...EF-1 TORNADO. EF-Scale

MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS...NEAR 90 MPH.

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES.

PATH DETAILS...FROM TWO MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN HANOVER...NEAR
THE INTERSECTIONS OF COUNTY ROADS 34 AND 120...NORTH NORTHEAST TO
ONE MILE WEST OF ST. MICHAEL...DISSIPATING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
45TH STREET AND JAMISON AVENUE INTERSECTION.

TIMING...THIS IS STILL BEING DETERMINED...BUT LIKELY TOUCHDOWN
OCCURRED JUST PRIOR TO 800 PM.

OTHER NOTES...MUCH OF THE DAMAGE WAS IN LINE WITH EF-0 DAMAGE AND
WIND SPEEDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THE STRONGEST INTENSITY OF EF-1 WAS
SEEN NEAR THE END OF THE PATH...WHERE A GARAGE WAS HEAVILY
DAMAGED.

$$

KRAUSE/MTF

Summary of the Tornado

"The tornado touched down just east of the intersection of County Roads 34 and120 and tracked north-northeast for 3.1 miles. The only time it deviated from this track was toward the end of its existence, when it made a slight turn toward the north-northwest and intensified. After hitting the house, it turned back toward the north-northeast and quickly dissipated. The tornado was narrow, only 75 feet wide at most, and it was often narrower than 75 feet.

Most eyewitnesses did not realize there was a tornado, because they did not see the debris swirling at ground level and the funnel did not extend all the way to the ground. It turns out that the condensation funnel only extended downward for some distance, then it appeared like there was nothing, then the debris at the surface. However, the violently rotating wind made it all the way to the ground but there was not enough humidity in the few thousand feet above the ground to condense and create the cloud that makes the tornado visible."

Mississippi falling at Memphis:

The mighty Mississippi has crested is finally starting to fall at Memphis.

The 47.87' crest Tuesday appears to be the 2nd highest flood of record in Memphis, within 1 foot of the record of 48.7' reached in 1937.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at Memphis

(1) 48.70 ft on 02/10/1937
(2) 45.80 ft on 04/23/1927
(3) 40.76 ft on 03/14/1997
(4) 40.50 ft on 05/08/1973
(5) 40.50 ft on 02/22/1950
(6) 40.30 ft on 03/07/1975
(7) 40.20 ft on 05/22/1961
(8) 39.20 ft on 04/06/1945
(9) 39.20 ft on 05/15/1983
(10) 39.10 ft on 06/01/1995

The Mississippi river did set new records this year near Memphis.

The flood bubble is now moving downstream to Vicksburg, Mississippi where the river is expected to crest next week at record levels.

Flood from space:

Ironically, one of the best ways to see a big flood like this is from space. The Mississippi has swollen to 3 miles wide near Memphis.

Check out the before and after images form NASA's Earth Observatory (Landsat 5 satellite) as the river swells near Memphis.

Memphis before the flood on April 21st, 2010.

Memphis during the flood on May 10, 2011.

Lightning strikes plane landing at London's Heathrow Airport:

Believe it or not, airplanes are largely safe from lightning strikes. Want proof? Check out this "striking" video from a plane on final approach to London's Heathrow Airport.

The UAE jet landed minutes later with its more than 500 passengers and crew unscathed... without a scratch on the plane.

The footage was captured last month in South West London by photographer Chris Dawson, who said he thought the weather conditions that day would be perfect for a lightning storm. Boy was he right.

A phenomenon known as the skin effect generally keeps people in cars and airplanes safe from lighting strikes.

PH

Rain, drought & "Epic Flood" all at once in Midwest

Posted at 9:26 AM on May 5, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Mississippi River, Rainfall

It's been an interesting start to the weather of 2011 to say the least.

First, record snows last winter. Next, top 5 floods this spring in the Upper Midwest. Then, the biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

And now, there are literally floods and drought going on at the same time.

Soggy Minnesota:

First the rain. The latest rainfall system overnight and early Thursday has dropped another .25" to .50" in and around the metro. My La Crosse Technology digital weather station recorded .36" of rainfall in Deephaven in the west metro as of Thursday morning.

To the west an arc of heavier, more persistent rains has dropped anywhere from .50" to 1" from near Redwood Falls (.52") through Hector, Litchfield (1.06") and St. Cloud. (.54")

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows heavist precip west of metro.

Spongy soils:

Soil moisture was already high going into last fall. This spring has been wet enough in Minnesota that we're now dealing with a surplus soil moisture in most of the state, and a very late spring planting season.

Check out these numbers form this week's Minnesota Crop Report.

1% of corn planted so far this year

46% of corn planted by this time (5 year average)

84% of corn planted by this time last year

1.3 days suitable for field work last week

In addition 44% of Minnesota's topsoil moisture is listed as "surplus."

Add it all up and you have one of the wettest and latest spring planting seasons in recent memory, and nearly a full month behind last year!

Further south: "Epic Flood" makes rivers flow backwards!

All that water from snowmelt had to go somewhere, and the swollen Mississippi is bursting to the south. Combine the runoff from Minnesota's snowmelt with torrential spring rains and you have a 500 year flood.

Cairo, Illinois is in the unfortunate geographic position of lying at the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The result is blown dikes to save the town, and floodwaters so high that tributaries flowing into these rivers are actually flowing backwards!

All Eyes on the Mississippi River: MyFoxMEMPHIS.com

Meanwhile, drought creeps north

During an April trip to Kansas, I was stunned to see firsthand just how quickly the landscape changed from flood to drought.

Rivers as close as Des Moines and southern Iowa are running low, and a full fledged drought is expanding north from Texas and Oklahoma into Kansas and Nebraska.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the expanding drought to the south, even as the Mississippi reaches all time flood crests in the southern states.

Adios La Nina!

And should we say good riddance? Today's latest CPC ENSO discussion shows La Nina has faded, and ENSO neutral conditions are returning.

This may be one reason why our cool La Nina spring weather is beginning to turn for the milder. It also may portend a more active hurricane season with more U.S. landfalls this year.

SST's actually above normal now in the eastern Pacific.

Our weather improves:

Rain has tapered in many areas today as the weather system pulls out. Look for a few scattered showers to linger today.

High pressure will bring a return to sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s Friday!

PH

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Temps trend up; a shot at 70? "Backwards" New Zealand tornado

Posted at 8:55 AM on May 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River, Tornadoes, Winter/spring 2011

Who knew 59 degrees could feel so good?

The mercury struggled to 59 in the metro on Tuesday under brilliant sunny skies. That's still 6 degrees below the average for May 3rd, which is now 65. Looking at the smiling faces and the number of us soaking up the much needed sunshine, you would have thought it was 75.

Temps surge Tuesday. (Click images to enlarge)

Our sunny weather winning streak continues today. Temps will recover to near "normal" early May levels this afternoon. Those stunted hostas will get a boost today with temps in the mid 60s. It should be a great evening for outdoor baseball or that evening stroll around Lake Calhoun.

Next rain tonight:

An "open wave" riding the jet stream will bring our next shot of rain overnight into early Thursday. Look for rain showers in western Minnesota this evening, spreading into the metro by around midnight.

Rainfall totals appear to be between .25" to .50" for most areas as the system sails through. "Open waves" tend to keep moving through the atmosphere and not stall over Minnesota. Look for rain to end from west to east early Thursday. It looks like the rain could end by noon, and the sun could return Thursday PM!

Fab Friday?

Another high pressure cell will glide overhead Friday. This means more sunshine, and temps could respond again into the upper 60s as spring kicks into high gear.

Temps trending upward next several days!

Friday just may be the nicest day in a long time around these parts.

Mixed weather bag this weekend?

Is it too early to look ahead to the weekend? Never!

To be honest, it's dicey to profess total accuracy 3-4 days out for any forecast. That may be especially true this weekend, as the weather crystal ball (and the weather maps) still look a little murky.

A couple of weak waves will slide through Minnesota under an increasing milder southwest flow aloft. This may trigger a few batches of clouds and a few showers both Saturday and Mother's Day. I also think we'll see some sunny, dry hours mixed in.

Bottom line? Look for a changeable weekend forecast, with a mix of sun and maybe a few showers. Temperatures should range from the upper 60s to possibly 70 if we get enough sun mixed in.

Unsettled next week?

The maps are looking potentially unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. A storm that looked like it may clip Minnesota Monday appears to be steering south, and that could leave us high & dry with a sunny milder day in the low 70s if it verifies.

The system may surge north a bit Tuesday & Wednesday, and the chances for rain could increase then. The models are still shifty regarding this potential weather system next week.

Stay tuned.

Omega Block ahead?

To be honest, the weather maps look chaotic in about 7-10 days. There is still a hint that we could develop what we call an "Omega Block" over the central USA later next week. If we do, that could lead to more dry weather.

Again...stay tuned.

New Zealand Tornado: Yes, they do spin the other way in the southern Hemisphere

But the damage is very real and looks the same. Check out the video & story from the New Zealand Herald.

Minnesota floods move down river:

Remember all that water in the Minnesota & Mississippi last month? Well it's moving down the Mississippi and combining with heavy rainfall to creat major flood probelms in the along the Mississippi. The raging Ohio River is feeding the problem too.

Here's the ABC Memphis video of the Army Corps of Engineers blowing the levee to save Cairo, IL. (pronounced KAY- row)

Heavy rains in excess of 7 to 10" have fallen along the Ohio and Mississippi watersheds.

We can be grateful our weather is trending for the better. For the first time in a long time we can say there are no floods, no snow, and for now no severe weather in the forecast.

It's all green grass, tulips and daffodils baby.

Enjoy!

PH

Flood 2011 Recap; Late-week snow chance fades?

Posted at 5:19 PM on April 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

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The floods of 2011 are still in progress and have caused problems in some areas. There have been two flood related deaths, numerous roads, parks and fields remain under water, especially near the Red River.

But it could have been so much worse.

Here's a recap of how the floods of 2011 came to pass, and why it appears we have dodged what could have been a disastrous record flood year...so far.

Loading the dice:

The dice were loaded as early as late last summer and fall for spring flooding in 2011.

Record September rains swelled many area rivers to record fall flood crests. September 2010 was the wettest on record for Minnesota, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

The statewide average rainfall was 6.47" in September.

Many southern Minnesota locations south of the Minnesota River were deluged with as much as 10" to 12" of rainfall last September.

As a result, many rivers including the Minnesota reached unprecedented record fall flood levels. In spite of an October dry spell, rivers were high, and soils largely saturated going into the winter freeze up in November.

Snow Blitz 2010-'11:

The winter of 2010-'11 began precisely on November 13th, 2010. That's the day the season's first big snow storm covered the Minnesota landscape with as much as a foot of snow...snow that would not disappear until early April in some areas.

The snow blitz continued at regular intervals with three massive storms to close out 2010, including the infamous "Domebuster 2010."

Story link: MyFoxTWINCITIES.com

The December "snopacolypse" the snowiest December on record at Twin Cities Airport.

2011: New year, same weather

The snow blitz continued into 2011. Storms continued to pile up snow on the landscape. By the time March rolled around it was the 5th snowiest winter on record for the Twin Cities.

All that snow contained a lot of water. Much of southern Minnesota had "snow water equivalent" of anywhere from 6" to 8"+ available for melting, and runoff into area rivers.

In late February, NWS hydrologists issued some alarming forecasts about the potential for record flood levels on many area rivers.

Southern Minnesota: How we dodged the bullet on record floods.

The warm up came in mid-March.

A string of mild days peaking in the 50s, and several nights above freezing started the snow melt.

As water gushed into area rivers, the rains came. Over an inch of rain fell on March 22nd. This "washed" additional snow cover and rain runoff rapidly into rivers. As a result, rovers were "shocked" into rapid rises, and the first flood crest was on, peaking in southern Minnesota rivers on March 28th & 29th.

It appears at the time that the rivers may have been headed for a record flood, but then came the cold.

Arctic air mass saves the day:

Behind the March 22-23 storm, a big sprawling arctic high pressure system settled in over Minnesota. For 6 days, overnight lows plunged into the teens, and daytime highs struggled to reach the freezing point.

The instant freeze locked up all water in snow cover and on the landscape in place, and almost instantly shut off any additional runoff into rivers. As a result, rivers peaked on March 28-29 and began to slowly fall, instead of rising to the record levels that would have likely occurred with milder temperatures and/or more rainfall.

That's how we dodged the record floods of 2011.

2nd Crest: A blessing in disguise?

Though southern rivers were falling, the flood gun was still partially loaded. Snow still on the ground packed plenty of water, and the potential for more snow, rain and a sudden warm up loomed.

Thankfully the weather cooperated, and a slow warm up created the perfect "time release" scenario for a "manageable" 2nd crest on southern Minnesota Rivers.

The fortunate fact that we able to "spread the water out" over two different high but manageable flood crests in 2011 may have saved us from what would have been a damaging all time flood of record on river in the south.

Red River: Not so lucky

In the north, the Red River watershed never really got in on the first big warm up in March. Temperatures remained cold enough, that most of the snow stayed intact in mid March.

As a result we are now seeing the effects of the higher "single crest" that was feared on southern Minnesota rivers this spring.

The Red River @ Fargo appears to have peaked at 38.75 feet on Saturday, below earlier forecasts of 39.5 to 40+ feet.

Still, the 39.75' crest at Fargo is the 4th highest flood of record for Fargo.

Historical Crests for Red River of the North at Fargo

(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 39.72 ft on 04/18/1997
(3) 39.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(4) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(5) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(6) 36.99 ft on 03/21/2010
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.41 ft on 04/02/1978
(11) 33.26 ft on 07/04/1975
(12) 30.88 ft on 06/09/2007
(13) 30.50 ft on 04/15/1965
(14) 30.16 ft on 03/22/1966
(15) 29.80 ft on 03/31/1907

It is interesting to note that 6 of the top 10 highest floods of record on the Red at Fargo have occurred since 1997.

All in all, it appears in many ways we dodged a bullet for the 2011 flood season.

Snow chances fade for Friday & Saturday?

A weak front may trigger a few rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

You may have heard talk of another major snowmageddon scenario for Friday & Saturday. The GFS model has been in "weather terrorist" mode again this week, portraying the possibility of heavy snow in southern Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

I've been watching the models with a skeptical eye, and I think my suspicions are coming to light.

The latest NAM (much more reliable model lately) run is doing about what I expected...tracking a weaker, warmer system further south.

At this point, it looks like mostly (light?) rain for southwest Minnesota Thursday. The rain showers may spread north into the metro Friday, and could possibly mix with some wet snow flakes late Friday night into early Saturday.

At this point I don't see any accumulations worth writing home about, but the system will still have to be watched.

Look for a return to cool sunshine with highs in the 40s Sunday.

Eau Calire County tornado damage Sunday:

Here's the damage survey from Sunday's storms in Eau Claire County.

PH

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Weekend severe threat; Red River update

Posted at 5:41 PM on April 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Severe weather, Weekend

It will look, feel and possibly sound like spring this weekend in Minnesota!

A western storm will track east through Minnesota this weekend. As it approaches, we'll see a variety of weather conditions from sun, to clouds to rain & thunder to potentially severe weather.

Potentially stormy weekend weather set up. (Click all images to enlarge)

Let's break down the weekend forecast.

Friday Night: Dry high pressure means a beautiful, cool, dry Friday night. Look for increasing clouds from the south, with mainly clear skies north & east. Temps will fall through the 50s Friday evening with lows in the mid 40s south and frosty 30s north. Light SE winds.

GOES 1km visible satellite with dew point contours (isodrosotherms)

Weather tip: Look for the waxing "Maple Sap Moon" peeking through a few clouds in the western sky this evening. The moon will set just after midnight, at 12:18am Saturday morning.

Saturday: A warm front will push north through Iowa Saturday toward Minnesota. Ahead of the front, clouds, fog & drizzle may increase. Look for a mix of clouds, and some filtered sun peeking through at times Saturday.

If we get enough sun temps may push 70 in southern Minnesota. If not, temps will still climb into the 60s. Chance for a scattered shower or T-Storm later. SE winds between 7-12 mph.

Weather/phenology tip: Look for new shoots emerging form the landscape, including tulips, daffodils and crocus.

Saturday night: This is where things may get a little "interesting."

As the warm front pushes north, a surge of moisture and an increasing low level jet stream around 5k feet may trigger scattered showers & T-Storms. The best chance of a storm may come after midnight. There is a slight risk for a few severe storms according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Primary storm threats appear to be hail and high winds.

Temps should be steady in the lower 60s.

Weather tip: Look for lightning in the sky late Saturday night. Storms will be moving toward the north/northeast.

Sunday & Sunday night: Depending on which model solution wins out, Sunday may end up feeling like early summer with warm and more humid air pushing into the southern parts of Minnesota.

If the low moves far enough north & west, the "warn sector" may push as far north as the Twin Cities Sunday PM. That could mean sun will boost temps into the (upper?) 70s in the metro... and temps may push 80 degrees in Rochester & SE MN and western Wisconsin!

Increased humidity will also jump into the weather equation for the first time this year...and dew points could surge into the 60s! Yes, we may go from snow to warm & humid weather in just two weeks.

With the low nearby, the warm surge and increased humidity the chances for thunderstorms will increase Sunday. The best chances appear to be afternoon & evening. There is an increasing risk for severe storms packing damaging winds and large hail Sunday PM & evening.

Elevated "moderate risk" includes the Twin Cities Sunday.

With temps near 80, high humidity and plenty of spin or "shear" in the atmosphere Sunday, there is also a risk for a few of the storms to produce tornadoes.

Bottom line & weather tip: Be prepared for the risk of severe storms to bust out Sunday, especially PM & evening. This is the time to dig out the NOAA weather radio & brush up on your severe weather safety plan. We may get rocked by some loud thunder & severe storms Sunday.

We expect to have extra weather coverage on MPR News stations Sunday PM & evening if severe storms fire off.

-Storm Predition Center
-Twin Cities NWS

Red River Update:

As southern Minnesota rivers reach a second crest this weekend, the focus shifts north to the big brawling Red which is in major flood stage this weekend.

The forecast for the Red River remains pretty much status quo at this point.

Weekend rains may total 1" in the Red River basin, but there are some indications that the delay in runoff may prolong the crest, but not raise the level.

The official forecast from AHPS remains for a crest of 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday at this point.

Here's the verbiage from the Grand Forks NWS.

"HYDROLOGY...

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. OVERLAND
FLOODING PERSISTS AS THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT."

Stay tuned as we watch for changes in the weekend forecast and monitor the severe threat which will increase as we approach Sunday.

PH

1st 60 today, 70 Saturday! Double crest, drought develops south

Posted at 9:29 AM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Drought, Flooding, La Nina, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

Lots to talk about today...here are a few headlines:

-First 60 degree reading of 2011 likely today in the metro

-"Green wave" reaches Kansas City, moving north

-Green shoots at weather lab

Now for some detail...

First 60 of 2011 today in the metro:

Where were you on November 10th?

That's the last time the mercury topped 60 degrees in the metro!

November 2010 featured a quick transition from late season warmth to sustained winter. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like we'll finally get there again today, making this the warmest day in nearly 5 months. Look for a few bank thermometers to flash as high as 64 degrees in the metro and much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Twins home opener: Sunny & 60s?

It appears the "weather lucky" Twins have won the opening day weather lottery at Target Field for the second straight year. A potential weather system is steering south Friday, and the result should favor sunshine and afternoon temps in the low 60s. First pitch 3:10pm Friday.

Play ball!

70 by Saturday?

As a deep low pressure trof spins up in the west, a southerly flow of mild air will persist and intensify through Saturday. The result should be the first 70 balmy degree temps of 2011 Saturday afternoon.

Sunday rain & thunder?

The western low will move east by Sunday into the Upper Midwest. It's early, but it looks like a band of showers and possible T-Storms will develop Sunday with the system. We could see a decent shot of rain (and possibly some thunder) in much of Minnesota Sunday, especially late.

Modles suggesting soaking rains possible Sunday.

Weekend severe outbreak south?

Further south, the atmosphere seems primed for a potential severe outbreak Saturday and especially Sunday.

Here's the verbage from SPC...

...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING REMAINS VERY LIKELY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

-"2nd crest" for rivers this weekend:

The much talked about "2nd crest" appears headed for southern Minnesota rivers this weekend. The crest forecasts are lower than anticipated a few days ago, and many rivers look to crest near or below the first crest observed in late March.

The Crow River @ Delano is forecast to crest at 19' this weekend. That's about 1 foot below the crest of 20' on 3/28/2011, which was the 4th highest flood of record for the Crow @ Delano.

The Mississippi River @ St. Paul is forecast to crest at 19.2' Monday. That's just above the 19.01' level recorded on 3/29/2011 which was the 8th highest flood of record @ St. Paul.

The flood story of 2011 will be remembered for the "double crest." The fact that rivers spread the runoff from near record winter snows over two crests two weeks apart may have saved many communities form record floods this year.

The cold snap in late March and early April, and lighter than average precipitation was indeed the "best case scenario" for mitigating flood levels in southern Minnesota rivers in the "Floods of 2011."

Red River: Not so lucky?

A higher, single crest appears likely on the Red River this year. The Red is rising steadily these days, and the latest forecast brings the river to 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday.

If the Red reaches 39.5' it will be the 3rd highest flood of record for the Red @ Fargo, behind only 2009 (40.84') and 1997 (39.72').

-Minnehaha Creek: Fastest flow in nearly 5 years!

I took a look at Minnehaha Creek Wednesday and saw it running swiftly through Minnetonka Mills. A further check of data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) shows the discharge from the Gray's Bay Dam is running at 250 CFS. That's the highest level since June 8, 2006, or nearly 5 years!

MCWD says flows above 150 CFS are "dangerous" for canoeing down Minnehaha Creek. 250 CFS has made Minnehaha Creek a raging little river! It's worth checking out if you can as it flows through the southwest metro communities into Minneapolis. A trip to Minnehaha Falls may make for some magnificent viewing in the next few days!

-Developing Midwest Drought:

The Weather Lab took a few days off and moved south last weekend. In my drive to Lawrence Kansas, I was surprised to see the rapid transition from rivers in flood in Minnesota to very low rivers levels with sand bars in Iowa.

Smoke filled the air Saturday as I observed numerous grass fires from southern Minnesota all the way into Missouri and Kansas.

Smoke filled skies and grass fires in Iowa & Missouri Saturday.

The latest drought monitor shows a growing drought threat in much of the Southern Plains, expanding into the Midwest.

Midwest drought can be common in La Nina years, and it's a developing trend we'll have to watch as we move toward summer.

-"Green Wave" reaches Kansas City:

I'll have more on this in coming days, but I wanted to mention that I observed the green wave heading north! Phenologists refer to the leading edge of the springtime green up as the so called "green wave" as it moves north each spring.

Grass is green, and leaves are bursting out on trees near and north of Kansas City now and the "wave" is moving north.

Flowering trees on the KU Campus in Lawrence, Kansas Monday.

I have heard that the green wave moves north at anywhere from 12 to 16 miles per day on average. It won't be long with temps in the 60s and 70s until we see trees and shrubs begin to burst out in southern Minnesota!

-Green "shoots" at Weather Lab:

The weather lab slopes north so we are usually late bloomers here. But I did observe tulips and daffodil shoots coming up today. A sure sign of spring at the Weather Lab, and a sure sign of hope for us all after a real Minnesota Winter!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

Red River rising at Grand Forks

Posted at 3:40 PM on April 5, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

We've covered the expected crest of between 39 and 41 feet on the Red River at Fargo/Moorhead. Here's the hydrograph projecting a crest of over 49 feet at Grand Forks.

If the river rises to this level it would be the fourth highest on record. The record crest is 54.35 feet set on April 22, 1997.

The Red River at Fargo is approaching major flood stage of 30 feet. It's about 28.5 feet this afternoon.

With the snowpack fading quickly the hydrologists are now focusing in on runoff finding its way from the tributaries and streams into the main stem rivers. Also, any additional rain later in the week may impact the forecast crest. Anticipated rainfall beyond the next twenty-four fours is not included in the river model run.

Here's the satellites eye view of upper Midwest in middle February. Note the gray line indicating the Minnesota River cutting through the snow field.

Here's a visible satellite image from this afternoon. Not much snowcover remains. But you can see the snow and ice on Lake Mille Lacs.

Here's a true sign of spring from my neighborhood this afternoon. I like this!

Hope springs eternal! First sixty degree reading of the year insight for the Twin Cities? Stay tuned.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Wind blowing, snow going and rivers flowing

Posted at 3:57 PM on April 4, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding

This morning's model run out of the North Central River Forecast Center has the Red River tracking close to 39 feet. Here's the hydrograph that is site specific for the gauge at Fargo. Forecasters typically augment this graph with a narrative statement allowng for a range in the crest prediction. Their forecast range as of this afternoon was 38 to 40 feet.

River Forecast information from the National Weather Service in Grand Forks

At least partial sunshine, accompanied by brisk, dry northwest winds have probably induced some sublimation of reamining snow cover in the Red River Valley. That would keep the runoff to a minimum for today.

However milder temperatures, closer to normal readings are in the offing for Wednesday and Thursday. In adition precipitation may come into play later in the week.

NOAA National Center for Environmental's Prediction forecast of liquid equivalent of precipitation for Thursday and Friday. Models are challenged this transition season to accurately place accumulating rainfall/snowfall, as we learned this past weekend.

Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening. Wind gusts reached 45 mph at Windom and Mankato today. Forty mph gusts were measured at Rochester and 35 mph about the Twin Cities.

Moderating temperatures this week will make it feel more like April. Normal high temperatures are in the middle 40s north to the middle 50s far south.

Pete Boulay from the Minnesota State Climate Office informed me this afternoon that the frost has gone out of the ground at the observation location in St. Paul. Watch for emerging perennials on the south facing slopes.

CE
naturesmessenger.com

Weekend Forecast: Models pull back on storm potential

Posted at 5:08 PM on April 1, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

We're inside 48 hours to our next Minnesota weathermaker, and the trend is for a warmer, weaker weather system starting Saturday night.

In fact, it's starting to look like this weekend will feel more like spring in southern Minnesota than the possible wintery blast that some forecast models were advertising earlier this week!

The system:

Low pressure will wind up and track through southern Minnesota this weekend.

Timing:

It looks like an initial shot of mixed rain/snow will move north through Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model trends indicate a warmer system with a significant "dry slot."

Behind the wave of rain, the dry slot may advance into southern Minnesota...brining a break in the rain and maybe even some sun on Sunday!!

700 mb (10,000 foot level) chart shows potential "dry slot" in southern Minnesota Sunday.

It's starting to look like Sunday may even evolve into a nice spring-like day in southern Minnesota, including the metro. Temperatures may even surge back into the 50s.

50s pushing north Sunday?

In the north, a mixed band of rain, sleet & snow could linger Sunday. There may be some accumulations, but snowfall totals look much lower than what the models were advertising a day ago.

The best chance for accumulating snow appears to be along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

Heavy snow potential shifts north.

Totals:

System rainfall totals look much lighter than previously forecast. The latest NAM is printing out closer to .25" with the initial rain shot Saturday night into early Sunday morning for the metro. The GFS is around .44" total.

That's much lower than the 1"+ rainfall that the GFS was touting as late as yesterday!

Lighter rainfall totals?

Bottom line:

There is still the potential for heavy snow along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

This weekend may actually feel more like spring in southern Minnesota...with some sun and highs in the 50s both Saturday & Sunday.

The weather will turn windy and colder behind the storm Monday. There is the potential for some (light) "wrap around" snow on the system's back side Monday.

This looks like yet another case of the GFS model "over forecasting" a big, scary snowstorm for Minnesota.

Enjoy the weekend...and stay tuned for any changes!

PH

Weekend storm trends rainy? Floods, gravity waves, ISS

Posted at 6:18 PM on March 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Gravity waves, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Snow, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

The latest model runs are trending toward a "mostly rainy" scenario for the metro with our incoming Sunday storm.

In the meantime, there's a mix of weather ahead...including a nice day Saturday!

Metro & greater Minnesota forecast:

Overnight & early Friday: Mix of rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes early Friday. Low near 33.

Friday PM: Trending sunnier & milder. High near 43. Light west wind.

Saturday: Best day of the weekend! Mostly sunny & milder. High near 50.

Sunday: Rain likely, possible heavy at times. Could start as wet snow, changing to all rain metro. Heavy wet snow possible Brainerd & Duluth. High near 47 metro, upper 30s north.

Monday: Windy. Rain changes to snow. Significant snow totals possible, especially north. Temps upper 30s & lower 40s.

Sunday rain?

The latest model trends support the notion of mostly rain Sunday from the Twin Cities south. There is some indication that it may be cold enough at the onset of precip early Sunday to be all snow...and maybe produce an inch or two before enough mild air surges north ahead of the low to change precip to all rain.

GFS brings precip Sunday.

Both the GFS & Euro models have shifted milder air north, supporting a mostly rain solution for Sunday. The latest GFS run is even hinting that mild air could remain in place much of Monday, keeping precip mostly rain from the metro south until late in the event Monday night.

Big rain totals?

The GFS is hinting at ran totals over .50" and maybe 1" or higher. Keep in mind the GFS has (wildly) over forecast rain/snow totals in the past few storms.

NAM painting heavy rainfall totals Sunday.

Heavy snow north?

Early indications are the rain snow line could set up close to Brainerd or Duluth. This could mean some heavy snow in these areas if it stays all snow. There is the potential for an early April snowstorm up north. There is also the chance mild air could shift even further north.

Bottom line? It's still too early to make any high probability predictions for potential snowfall totals at this point. You'll see some scary (and probably overblown) numbers thrown out...but early spring storms have a way of changing at the last minute.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.

Rivers falling for now:

Most area rivers continue to fall late this week and into the weekend. In some areas river levels will drop 2 to 3 feet from crests earlier this week. This is good news, since it will give rivers some "breathing room" before the next wave of rain can potentially raise river levels again next week.

The "Renegade" at Valleyfair in Shakopee soaks in floodwaters.

You can get all the latest AHPS river info here, but some creative folks at MPR have also put together an excellent "flood aggregator" blog called "Floods '11" here. Check out the blog for some of the latest news related flood items & photos.

Anatomy of a "gravity wave"

We're learning more about mysterious "gravity waves" which are sometimes observed with severe weather outbreaks. These powerful, rolling atmospheric waves seem to supercharge thunderstorm clusters. Details from the UW Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog:

Mid-tropospheric gravity waves upwind of intense convection:

"McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 µm water vapor channel data (above; click image to play animation) showed a well-defined warm/dry "arc" feature (denoted by the brighter yellow color enhancement) just upwind of a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that was moving eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent Gulf Coast states on 30 March 2011. The MCS eventually produced a number of reports of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across northern Florida. Also note that a subtle signature of what appeared to be gravity waves could be seen within portions of this warm/dry arc feature (especially in the southern portion, over the Gulf of Mexico).

All of the above satellite evidence suggests that the gravity waves seen on the water vapor imagery were not surface-based, but were located at a higher altitude within the middle troposphere."

ISS sightings ahead:

Skies may be cloudy Friday morning, but Saturday should provide a good opportunity to see the brightly illuminated International Space Station (ISS).

ISS sightings for Minneapolis.

You can enter your zip code to get precise sighting times here.

Mysteries of thundersnow?

I don't know if we'll see or hear any "thundersnow" with the system over the weekend, but NASA has some interesting info on a "lucky" encounter with thundersnow here.

TWC's Jim Cantore's "thundersnow moment."

"Walt Petersen and Kevin Knupp have traveled far and wide to study winter storms. They never dreamed that the most extraordinary one they'd see - featuring freakish thundersnow, a 50-mile long lightning bolt, and almost a dozen gravity waves -- would erupt in their own back yards. The storm hit Huntsville, Alabama, on the evening of January 9th.

Eyewitness Steve Coulter described the night's events: "It was as if a wizard was hurling lightning behind a huge white curtain. The flashes, muted inside thick, low hanging clouds, glowed purplish blue, like light through a prism. And then the thunder rumbled deep and low. This was one of the most beautiful things I've ever experienced.'"

PH

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St. Paul: Anatomy of a flood crest

Posted at 8:41 AM on March 30, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

It appears the Mississippi River at St. Paul is at crest Wednesday morning.

The river has held steady near 19' for the past several hours.

Assuming the 19.1' level observed so far holds as the highest, it is the 8th highest flood of record for the Mississippi @ St. Paul.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986

Here's what today's flood crest looks like from river cams in St. Paul, Minnesota today.

Harrriet Island today: (Click all images to enlarge)

Compare today's image (above) to the shot taken Monday morning (below).

Raspberry Island today:

Shepard Road today:

Compare today's image (above) to the shot below from Monday morning taken about 48 hours ago.

Pretty interesting to watch in St. Paul, but so far thankfully relatively uneventful!

Latest AHPS river info here.

Watching our next rain/snow systems:

After a nice Wednesday it looks like our next weather system slides in Thursday. The temperature profile with the system looks to be borderline rain/snow for the metro and much of Minnesota as it passes through.

There could be a changeover to mostly snow Thursday night, and there is the potential for a slushy inch or so on mainly grassy areas for much of the metro. Best chance for 1" to 3" appears to be northeast of the Twin Cities.

Stronger system Sunday & Monday:

Forecast models appear to be coming into line for a more potent system Sunday & Monday.

Latest indications are it could be mostly rain Sunday from the metro south, with a changeover to (a few inches of ?) wet snow by Monday.

It's too early to tell how accurate the models are with this system yet, but the potential is there for a good soaker which could help rivers toward a second crest sometime later next week.

Forecasts still highly variable for rain/snow Thursday & Sunday.

Stay tuned...

PH

Big bad scary forecast models-not so scary today

Posted at 8:52 AM on March 29, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It takes restraint to be a weatherman sometimes.

Last night was one of those times. Let's hope the restraint is justified in the long run...

Last night's 0Z (evening) GFS model run painted a really scary picture for a big Sunday rain storm, followed by several inches of heavy wet snow Monday. Today? We'll it would be too extreme to say "poof" it's gone, but not by much.

GFS: From 6"+ snowfall down to 1" in next 5 days.

The overnight (06Z) GFS run is brining things back to reality a bit. It still spins up a low pressure system Saturday night into Sunday, but does not create the "bomb" fantasized by the earlier model run.

More like .6" liquid instead of 2"+??

Talk about a sigh of relief. Whew...

GFS having a bad month:

I don't verify numerical weather forecast models for a living... (Believe it or not there are people at NOAA who do that!) but I do use them everyday. It seems to me that the GFS (the primary U.S. medium range forecast model) has been out to lunch lately.

Remember the "mega storm" about 2-3 weeks ago that lead to some alarming headlines of 1'+ snow totals...only to end up as 1" at MSP Airport? Thank the GFS.

To say we've been seeing a high degree of "variability" in the GFS solutions in the 3-10 day range would be putting it kindly. More like wildly inaccurate solutions...often brewing up monster storms that turn out to be highly overblown.

I can't say why this is happening for sure. But seasonal variations usually lead to model trouble. The models have trouble gauging the transitions during spring and fall.

I can tell you this, it's no fun to be a forecaster staring down the barrel of a (fictional?) 1' to 2" heavy rain followed by a 6"+ snow event in early April...and having to swallow hard and not publish it in hopes that the model was just going through some growing pains.

Let's hope today's runs confirm the idea that we will get some rain Saturday night and Sunday...but a more manageable amount under an inch in most locations...followed by a few wet, wind driven snowflakes Monday on the colder backside of the low.

Rivers dropping fast:

It's good to see river levels dropping fast west of the metro today.

The Crow is down around 1 foot in Delano since Sunday.

The Minnesota is down 1.5 feet in Mankato, and is now receding in Henderson.

Yay!

The Minnesota is cresting today in Jordan.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest tomorrow in St. Paul well below the earlier threats of a flood rivaling the 1965 fiasco.

Two crests better than one?

There's plenty of talk about a "double crest" of 2nd crest for many area rivers this spring. This may be a good thing.

Moving 80"+ of winter snow melt down the rivers in two separate (but lower) surges may be a better outcome than having one big "mega crest" that could produce a flood of record for many river locations. Most flood protection can better handle two moderately high crests then one big flood that could top dikes & levees.

The double crests expected this spring may be a godsend.

Red River trouble?

The one exception to this scenario may be the Red River of the North. The big thaw never really hit the Red, and there's still plenty of water in snow to melt when things warm up later this week into the weekend. The Red may see one big crest...and the latest forecasts still put the chances high for a record flood on the Red at Fargo and other river points.

All quiet on the Red...for now.

We'll watch as that story unfolds over the next two weeks.

Southern Minnesota river outlook better?

It still looks to this forecaster like we may be able to thread the needle on avoiding record flood levels for the next week at least, even with some hint of river rises next week due to melting and additional rainfall.

Let's hope so.

Stay tuned...

Signs of spring?

Yes, the forecast modles are hinting at more 40s & 50s the next two weeks. But this guy really caught my eye this morning. A sure sign of spring?

Big fat robin sunning outside weather lab window Tuesday morning.

There's hope!

PH

Crow & Minnesota dropping fast; rising water in St. Paul

Posted at 5:17 PM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

The latest AHPS hydrographs show the Crow & Minnesota dropping fast west of the Twin Cities Monday.

Meanwhile downstream, the Mississippi is rising in St. Paul.

Check out these images today from the St. Paul city webcams.

Watch how the water rises and creeps over the (Shepard?) road near the
Mississippi Monday in these 3 images as the day rolls on.

9:40am

3:16pm

4:59pm

For a rundown of today's flood trends,check my morning post.

PH

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1st flood crest now; "best case" scenario this week?

Posted at 9:20 AM on March 28, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

The first crest of the 2011 "flood wave" is moving into the west metro today.

-You can find all of the latest river levels and forecasts here.

-City of St. Paul flood info & rivercams here.

The Minnesota River has crested and is falling today at Morton, Mankato and Henderson.

The Crow crested Saturday at Mayer, and has fallen about 6" since then.

The Crow has reached a stable crest at Delano of 20' and is forecast to begin a slow fall today and may fall about 2 feet by Saturday. The 20' crest is the 4th highest flood of record (FOR) on the Crow at Delano, and is .3' below last year's crest reached on 3/21/2010.

Historical Crests for Crow River at Delano

(1) 23.25 ft on 04/14/1965
(2) 20.45 ft on 04/12/1969
(3) 20.30 ft on 03/21/2010
(4) 19.95 ft on 04/15/2001
(5) 19.25 ft on 04/08/1997

So far it seems the first wave of 2011 flood crests is passing without major incident. In fact, ice cream sales were reported to be brisk in Delano as flood gawkers came out to watch the flood in progress and frequented local shops & businesses.

-City of Delano Facebook page

-Live Delano web cam

Anatomy of an ice jam:

Check out this awesome video of an ice jam at the bridge in Delano Friday filmed by city crews!

"Bubble" moves downstream:

As the "bubble" or "wave" of water moves along on the Minnesota & Crow, rivers are still rising downstream.

Here are the forecasts for crests this week on the Minnesota.

The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 19.2' Wednesday at St. Paul. This would be the 8th highest FOR in St. Paul, about 1 foot above last year's crest.

St. Paul's Harriet Island takes a bath Monday.

"Best case" flood weather scenario this week?

Our Canadian high pressure and strong late March sun are combining to create what could be a best case weather scenario to keep rivers in check this week.

The air mass overhead is just perfect for nights below freezing to keep water in snow pack locked up. Strong sun wars days above freezing, allowing just a little runoff release into rivers during the day.

Looking ahead, temperatures will warm to near 50 by late week, and nights will be mostly above freezing late week. But most rivers in southern Minnesota will be falling by then. Though it looks like we may reach a 2nd crest next week on many rivers next week, overall levels may have dropped by as much as 2 feet or more by the weekend.

We're not out of the woods yet, and rivers are still running very high this week. But barring any major incidents or dike failures, we're beginning to see a scenario unfold where we just may be able to thread the eye of the needle when it comes to flooding over the next two weeks or so.

Precip chances:

There are two identifiable chances for precip over the next week.

The first one comes in Thursday, and may begin as (light?) snow before changing over to rain as milder air pushes north.

The second, and potentially more significant system looks to be mostly rain after an initial shot of snow..and rolls in Sunday.

It's early to pinpoint these systems, so stay tuned. If we get enough liquid precip (otherwise known as rain) with the Sunday system, it's possible we could see a second crest on rivers next week.

PH

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Weekend chill, then warmer. Flood updates & flood cams

Posted at 6:25 PM on March 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The last weekend of March will really feel like....the first weekend of March.

Canadian high pressure is bringing plenty of sunshine, at a price. The sun also comes with a side of chilly days and sub freezing nights. Temps are running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend.

Metro averages are 46/28 this weekend. Expect highs in the lower 30s and lows in the teens this weekend in the south, with highs in the 20s north and lows near zero far north.

Warm up still on tap:

The weather pattern still shows signs of moderation late next week. It looks like a slow climb into the 40s, then a boost into the 50s by next Friday.

50s by next Friday? (Click to enlarge)

Snow stays south?

It looks like the southward trend of possibly significant snow next Monday night & Tuesday is favored. The GFS appears to keep the system close enough to brush the metro with light snow Monday night, and maybe produce a few inches along the I-90 corridor. The European model steers everything way south, keeping Minnesota high & dry.

On the edge of southern precip next week?

This is still worth watching...stay tuned.

Flood updates: Better south now, Red River trouble later?

We've been (rightfully) focusing on rivers in southern Minnesota with this week's weather causing rapid river rises. As we head through the weekend the flood forecast continue to be optimistic for the south. A few flood warnings have even been dropped for now along the St. Croix.

-Latest southern Minnesota river levels and forecasts here.

The good news may be temporary. A warm up next week, additional snow melt and possibel future rain could lead to a second crest in southern minnesota Rivers in April. Here's the briefing from the NCRFC.

Red River trouble ahead?

Now that the cold snap has improved the short term outlook in the south, let's talk a little about the Red.

What was good for southern Minnesota this week did not help the longer term forecast for the Red River. MPR's Dan Gunderson details the latest here.

Last week's thaw did not melt much snow in the Red River watershed. This week's storm dumped another 10" of snow on top of already water laden snow cover.

The cold snap will delay flooding on the Red even more, but that opens the door to a potential rapid April warm up and potential for heavy rains.

Here are some detais from Friday's update on Red River flooding from the Grand Forks NWS.

Key points for the Red River Basin, from south to north:

- Risk along the Buffalo River has stayed steady, as recent snowfall has nearly equaled previous runoff.
- Risk along the MN Wild Rice at Hendrum is now nearly 50 percent of meeting or exceeding 1997's record [33.85 ft].
- Risk along the Sand Hill and Marsh Rivers is now around 30-40 percent of 2009 levels.
- Risk along the Red Lake River has remained steady with Crookston having a 35 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 2009 levels.
- Risks along the Snake and Two Rivers sub-basins have dropped by half a foot, while risk along the Roseau River has increased by about half a foot.

The bottom line for the Red is, the gun is still loaded so to speak. It's now all about weather in the next month, and how quickly or slowly the snow melts...and how much rain we add on top.

Flood cams:

Here are a few web cams to track river levels, and see what river conditions look like.

-City of ST. Paul webcams

-St. James Hotel web cam Red Wing

-Big Stone Minnesota River cam

-Northfiled River cam

Have a great weekend!

PH

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Breaking: Flood forecasts lowered again!

Posted at 7:39 PM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

Here's some potentially good news in a sea of bad weather this week.

Most river level forecasts have been revised lower in the next week.

The latest updates from the hydrologists at the NCRFC in Chanhassen have lowered river level forecasts for some river locations as much as 3.5 feet from forecasts earlier this week.

The changes are largely due to the latest round of cold weather this week. The cold "locks up" moisture by freezing it in place on the landscape, instead of creating the runoff that would happen with above freezing temps.

You can see all the latest river data here, but here are a few select hydrographs for some key river points in southern Minnesota.

Keep in mind that specific forecast river crest "numbers" and timing are best estimates within a wider overall forecast range. Forecasts will likey be modified in the coming days as new data is fed into hydrologic models.

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Forecast rise to 18.9' next week.
(Down 3.5 feet from earlier forecast!)

Crow River @ Delano: Forecast crest at 18.8' Saturday night.
(Down 1.7 feet from earlier forecast) Forecast to fall below 17 feet again next week!

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Forecast crest at 25' Saturday.
(Down 2 feet from forecast earlier this week.)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Forecast crest at 737.4' Sunday.
(Down 1.1 feet from forecast earlier this week)

Minnesota @ Jordan: Forecast crest at 32' Monday & Tuesday.
(Down 1 foot from earlier forecast)

Minnesota @ Shakopee: Forecast crest 715.8' Tuesday & Wednesday.
(Down 1.2 feet from earlier forecasts)

Minnesota @ Savage: Forecast crest at 713.4 Thursday.
(Down from 0.6' from earlier forecasts)

St. Criox @ Stillwater: Forecast rise to 87.1' Thursday.
(Down 0.7' from earlier forecasts)

Let's hope these latest forecasts reflect an overall trend that keeps floodwaters a little more in check the next few days.

Next snow Tuesday?

I know, I know. I hate to even mention it. But after what looks like a few much needed dry days through the weekend, it looks like our next chance of snow could be on the horizon.

Remember models can and often do change dramatically 5 days out.

The GFS insists on brining another potentially potent low pressure system into the Upper Midwest by next Monday night and Tuesday. Take a deep breath and look at the meteogram below.

(Click to enlarge...if you dare)

Yep. That's 8+ inches of snow on the chart for the 12z morning run, but less from the 18z afternoon run. Remember, we don't issue snowfall forecasts 5 days in advance and there is some indication that system could steer south. Also the GFS has grossly overforecast snow totals for the last few events. And the European model seems to suggest the southward track which could leave Minnesota high and (thankfully) dry next week.

But be aware that there is at least the possibility of significant snow next Tuesday.

Hang in there; it still looks warmer by next weekend!

PH

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Watching the flood: Cold may help prevent higher crests

Posted at 9:42 AM on March 24, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, St. Croix River, Winter/spring 2011

The cold weather we're feeling may have a benefit. Slightly lower flood forecasts and river levels.

Before I launch into the potentially slightly good news, let's be clear about one thing. This is going to be (and already is) a major flood for many river locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin & North Dakota.

We've already lost one brave life fighting the rising waters. Roads are already closed or washed out. Thousands of hard working public employees and river residents are working hard building dikes and levees to protect us all from the rising water.

That said, there are some rays of hope regarding the flood scenario late this week.

1) Snow, not rain:

The fact that the second half of out Tuesday-Wednesday storm was snow and not rain is good news. Instead of running directly into area rivers, Wednesday's snow is still white sitting on your lawn. This is good news since we didn't add any more runoff once the rain changed to snow.

2) Sub freezing air:

We may be tempted to bemoan yet another frigid Canadian high pressure center pouring south into Minnesota after this rigorous winter. But that cold air we're feeling has a benefit. The sub-freezing air means the snow is still frozen on the ground, and not running into already swollen rivers.

Mostly sub freezing next few days. (Click to enlarge)

The freeze will "lock up" most of the potential runoff the next few days. This will give rivers a chance to move water downstream, without adding copious amounts of "new" runoff that would further spike river levels.

3) Dry forecast through Monday?

Our friendly neighborhood Canadian high pressure center will provide another benefit with regard to the flood scenario. It looks like it may steer another storm system to our south this weekend, and keep us dry through Monday.

That should give us 5 days to dry out without adding additional moisture to the flood scenario.

Latest flood forecasts: Levels down 1 to 2 feet!

While most rivers are still forecast to reach major flood stage this weekend or next week, the trend is encouraging.

Today's flood forecasts from the NCRFC lower crests between 1 and 2 feet for many area rivers. (Keep in mind the river level "number" is within a greater forecast "range" of possibility.)

Here's the latest:

Crow @ Delano: Projected crest at 19.1' Saturday-Sunday.
(Down from 20.5' or 1.4' lower!)

Minnesota River @ Mankato: Projected crest 26' Saturday.
(Down from 27' or 1' lower)

Minnesota @ Henderson: Projected crest 737.7' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 738.5')

Minnesota @ Jordan: Projected crest 32' Monday-Tuesday.
(Down from 33')

Minnesota @ Savage & Shakopee:
(Also down about 1 foot below previous crest forecast)

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Projected rise to 20.4' next Wednesday.
(Down from 22.4' or 2.4' lower than previous projection!)

St. Croix @ Stillwater: Projected rise to 86.13' next Wednesday.
(Down from 87.8' or 1.6 feet)

Next snow Tuesday?

The GFS is hinting that a low pressure system may track this way by late Monday night or Tuesday of next week. That could be our next shot of snow, unless the system steers south. It's way early to say this system will hit us for sure...just a possibility at this point.

Tuesday snow chance?

Cold lingers next week?

It looks like we may end up colder than average through next week with highs mostly in the 30s and sub freezing nights.

Warmer next weekend?

There is still some indication temps may rebound nicely the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd. Highs in the 50s are possible, but we'll have to see if we get that warm as time evolves.

Potential rain (& snow?) week of April 4th & 5th?

Okay this is wayyy out on the proverbial weather limb. The GFS is hinting at the potential for significant rain possibly ending as snow during the April 4-5 time frame. Too early to make a call here (could be pure model fantasy at this point)...but the trend has been evident in more than one model run.

Double crest?

Add it all up, and you may have a "double crest" on many area rivers. One crest may occur this weekend or next week, and another could happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

This might not be a bad thing. It could keep overall river levels high for a longer period of time, but avoid a potentially higher flood crest in the process.

The downside of prolonged elevated river levels is that we're more vulnerable to a big storm that could dump heavy rain as the weeks go by.

Bottom line:

The cold is probably good news in the short run, but prolonged high river levels leave us vulnerable to flooding rains this spring.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Storm eases; 5th snowiest winter; rivers rise

Posted at 5:25 PM on March 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Well that was interesting.

Our gnarly hybrid winter-spring storm has wound down, but not before blasting much of the Upper Midwest with a stark reminder that it is still March in Minnesota.

Snowiest winter in 27 years!

With 4.4" of fresh snow at MSP Airport this is now the 5th snowiest winter on record at MSP with 84.6" this season.

Here's the text from Twin Cities NWS:

"Another 4.4 inches of snow fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport March 22nd into the 23rd (as of 1:00pm on the 23rd), pushing the seasonal snowfall total past the 1991-1992 seasonal total and into 5th place on the all time list. The 2010-2011 snow season is now the snowiest season since the record was set during the 1983-1984 season. The current seasonal snowfall total stands at 84.6 inches. The average seasonal snowfall in the Twin Cities is 55.9 inches."

Snowfall totals:

In general snowfall totals ranged from 2.5" (Burnsville) to 6.5" (Coon Rapids) across the metro.

Snowfall totals between 6" and 12" are common through much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Here are some updated snowfall totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED AS OF 315 PM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR
EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.00 5 N ISLE MN MILLE LACS 0752 AM
10.80 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0729 AM
10.30 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM
10.20 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0800 AM
10.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0900 AM
9.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0825 AM
9.20 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
9.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0846 AM
9.00 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
9.00 3 S ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 1204 PM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0530 AM
8.80 CLAYTON WI POLK 0842 AM
8.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0900 AM
8.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0900 AM
8.50 MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
8.50 MORA MN KANABEC 0700 AM
8.20 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1210 PM
8.20 BOWLUS MN MORRISON 0724 AM
8.00 WATSON MN CHIPPEWA 0900 AM
8.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0811 AM
8.00 LEAF VALLEY MN DOUGLAS 0806 AM
8.00 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM
7.60 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0556 AM
7.50 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0640 AM
7.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0630 AM
7.50 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 1140 AM
7.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0100 PM
7.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 1012 AM
7.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 0937 AM
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
7.00 4 NW ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
7.00 2 N GLEN FLORA WI RUSK 0700 AM
6.50 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 1040 AM
6.00 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0842 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0804 AM
6.00 2 WSW RICE MN STEARNS 0700 AM
6.00 3 E EAST FARMINGTON WI POLK 0630 AM
6.00 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0600 AM
5.50 DAYTON MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
5.50 4 E ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0700 AM
5.50 2 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
5.30 ST STEPHEN MN STEARNS 0722 AM
5.20 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0745 AM
5.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0730 AM
5.20 FOREST LAKE 5NE MN CHISAGO 0700 AM
5.20 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1207 PM
5.10 5 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1057 AM
5.00 DELANO MN WRIGHT 0900 AM
4.90 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0700 AM
4.60 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
4.60 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0100 PM
4.40 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM
4.10 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
4.00 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0900 AM
4.00 GRANITE FALLS MN CHIPPEWA 1120 AM
4.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
4.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0824 AM
4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0730 AM
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0723 AM
4.00 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.80 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0750 AM
3.50 1 E ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.40 2 SSE GREENFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
3.40 1 WNW ROCKFORD MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
3.00 2 SSE MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0830 AM
3.00 MINNEAPOLIS LWR ST ANTH MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
2.80 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
2.80 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0806 AM
2.60 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
2.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0527 AM
2.50 BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 1050 AM
2.50 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0800 AM
2.50 2 NW ROSEVILLE MN RAMSEY 0600 AM

The heaviest snow band set up as expected between the metro and Duluth, but did shift slightly south at the last minute.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
415 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY
------ ----------------------- -- --------------
14.50 SARONA WI WASHBURN
14.00 8 S HAYWARD WI SAWYER
11.50 WINTER WI SAWYER
11.00 PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.80 5 SW PHILLIPS WI PRICE
10.50 2 W HAYWARD WI SAWYER
9.50 4 N GRANTSBURG WI BURNETT
9.00 1 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE
8.50 5 N PILLAGER MN CASS
8.00 WEBSTER WI BURNETT
7.50 BREEZY POINT MN CROW WING
7.00 MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON
6.80 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON
6.50 3 N BRAINERD MN CROW WING
5.00 SOLON SPRINGS WI DOUGLAS
1.50 4 S SAWYER MN CARLTON
0.40 DULUTH AIRPORT MN ST LOUIS

The late southward shift in the snowfall caused the snow to mostly miss Duluth, but not the wind. Check out some of the peak wind gusts from in and around the "Windy Twin Ports."

PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR

56 MPH DULUTH AIRPORT
51 MPH CLOQUET AIRPORT
47 MPH SUPERIOR AIRPORT
70 MPH BLATNIK BRIDGE/MNDOT

Forecast: Cold but quiet

A sprawling Canadian high pressure system will set up over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest for most of the next week. This will keep us mostly dry...but temps will be running 10+ degrees below average.

Warm up 8-9 days away?

There are signs of a major warm up by late next week. Temps could return to the 50s and maybe push 60 by the weekend of April 2-3.

Rivers rise:

Rivers are still on the rise, with many crests expected this weekend or next week.

-Latest flood forecasts here.

Welcome to Minnesota. Floods, heavy rain, lightning, thunder, sleet, heavy snow, and 70 mph winds...and that's just in one day!

PH

Rising rivers, rain, wind, snow and a blizzard

Posted at 5:29 PM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Rain, thunder, floods, high winds, heavy snow, and a blizzard. Just another day in Minnesota weather. I almost have to pinch myself and ask if what I'm seeing on the weather maps is real!

Let's take them one by one.

Flood Update:

-Latest river levels and forecasts here

I spoke with hydrologist Diane Cooper this afternoon from the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen. Here's the latest on how today's rains affected rivers and forecasts.

-This morning's rainfall was generally between .50" to 1" in most watersheds in southern Minnesota. That's almost twice the amount they had fed into the river forecast models in yesterday's forecast update. As a result (especially smaller) rivers rose more rapidly today. They have updated forecasts today to reflect the heavier overnight rainfall.

-NCRFC raised flood "categories" by one level for several river points. The complete text of today's latest flood warning is here.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FORTHE MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO.

* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED AT THIS
LEVEL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.3 FEET
ON MAR 29 2009.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.1 FEET BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.5 FEET
ON JUN 24 1993.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...WATER ENCROACHING ON STATE HIGHWAY 25
BETWEEN STATE HIGHWAY 7 AND CARVER COUNTY ROAD 122.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.8 FEET
ON MAR 20 2010.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS SERVING HOMES CLOSEST TO
RIVER MAY BEGIN TO BACK UP.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.1 FEET
ON JUN 26 1957.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED WING.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:23 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.1 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...RED WING MILLING COMPANY MAY EXPERIENCE
BASEMENT FLOODING AND BEGIN PUMPING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.4 FEET
ON APR 17 1951.

$$

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.1 FEET BY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6 FEET
ON APR 9 1969.

$$

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ST CROIX RIVER AT STILLWATER.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 79.4 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 87.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 88.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 89.0 FEET...THE CITY PARK IN BAYPORT BEGINS FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 87.9 FEET
ON JUN 28 1993.

$$

-NCRFC hydrologists raised the forecast levels of the following rivers by over 1 foot today. The updated forecasts now put several river points into "top 5 flood of record" territory.

Crow @ Delano

Forecast = 21.2' this weekend. (2nd highest flood of record)

Minnesota @ New Ulm, Mankato, Henderson, Shakopee

Mississippi @ St. Paul

The latest forecast for the increasingly mighty Mississippi at St. paul is for a level of 22.4 feet by next Tuesday...and still rising. This would be the 6th highest flood of record at St. Paul, and a full 4 feet above last year's crest on 3/24/2010!

-Diane also points out that, like meteorology, flood forecasting is not an exact science. Forecasting a flood crest a week out is like forecasting a snowstorm 7 days out. We may know it's going to snow, but the science does not allow us to accurately put out a forecast of say...12.5" a week in advance.

We give a range for snowfall forecasts, and hydrologists do the same for river levels. The "number" you see on hydrographs is just the best estimate of the specific level given available data at that point in time.

Next wave of precip moving through overnight.

Part II of our current storm is ramping up in Minnesota tonight. The next wave of rain and snow is here, and it still looks like the snowfall will be heavy overnight into Wednesday through eastern North Dakota, central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue.

Heavy snow band trending south?

There are some indications that the system's heavy snow band could shift 50 miles south overnight. This would place the southern edge of the heaviest snow closer to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities metro, and could increase snowfall overall in the Twin Cities.

Some models are leaning toward a 2" to 4" range for the metro by late Wednesday, with the potential for 6" in the far northern suburbs.

Bottom line: Rain changing to snow overnight. Heaviest snow band with a potential of 6" to 12"+ includes Fargo-Alex-Brainerd-St. Cloud-Hinckley-Mora-Duluth-Rice Lake.

Best forecast for metro appears to be 2" to 4" at this point, with heavier totals possible north metro. Expect a snowy rush hour Wednesday morning in the metro, with winter storm to blizzard conditions to the north.

Gale warnings and big waves on Superior:

Gale warnings are in effect for Lake Superior. Webcam here.

An angry Lake Superior rages in Duluth.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Bad to worse: Heavy rain triggers rapid river rises

Posted at 9:44 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Here we go again, and the timing couldn't have been worse.

The "nightmare scenario" for flood forecasters and river residents is in progress in southern Minnesota. The last thing you want to see as rivers rise is a shot of heavy rain, but that's exactly what we're getting today.

****Flood warnings are in effect for most all area rivers and creeks in southern Minnesota. If you live near a river that is expected to flood this week, all necessary preparations should be rushed to completion today. This is a serious situation, and major to near record flood levels may be observed in the next week.****

-Latest flood warnings here!

Our hybrid late winter-early spring storm is delivering widespread rain with embedded heavy rain. The rain is effectively washing much of the remaining snow cover away into rivers and streams, providing a sort of "shock" or turbo boost to runoff and raising river levels more rapidly in the process.

458 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

Here are some rainfall reports and totals as of early Tuesday morning:

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES LGT RAIN 36 34 93 E20G26 29.92F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.33;

ST PAUL LGT RAIN 36 33 89 E10G18 29.97F FOG

CRYSTAL RAIN 36 33 89 E12 N/A FOG

BLAINE HVY RAIN 36 34 93 E22G29 29.94F

EDEN PRAIRIE LGT RAIN 36 34 92 E15G25 29.90F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 36; 6HR MAX TEMP: 39; 6HR PCP: 0.45;

LAKEVILLE HVY RAIN 34 34 100 E15 29.89F WCI 24

As of 7:30 am the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven has recorded .73" of rainfall. There's an interesting note here. My tipping rain bucket is located in a spot where some melting snow form a nearby snow pile may have added to the rain total.

Here's why it may not matter...the effect of the rain washing the snow into the gauge is the same effect occurring in the landscape where snow cover is present. While my actual rainfall may have been slightly less...the "effective" rainfall and subsequent runoff of .73" is probably closer to what's occurring in the landscape as combined rainfall and snow melt washes into area streams and rivers today.

Here's a look at storm total rainfall estimates fort he Twin Cities doppler radar Tuesday morning. Note the one inch plus totals southwest of the metro, right over the Minnesota River Watershed.

Also note the heavy 2"+ totals northwest of the Metro near Big Lake, right over the Mississippi River watershed. This pretty much seals the fate for the Mississippi River, and forecasts for a potential crest next week at St. Paul continue to rise.

Smaller rivers respond with rapid rises today:

The overnight rains (and some ice jams) have already triggered measureable rises in smaller rivers today. Take a close look at the hydrographs below, and notice the river "spikes" as runoff quickly raises river levels. Also notice how the observed river levels outpace the latest river forecast trajectories for some rivers.

Mississippi level raised again:

All the extra water form the Crow, Minnehaha Creek & Minnesota River watersheds has to go somewhere, and it ends up in the Mississippi.

The latest hydrograph for the Mississippi in St. Paul raises the level of the river to 21.3 feet by Monday. This would be 3 feet higher than last year's crest of 18.38' on 3/24/10 which was the 8th highest flood of record.

This would be the 7th highest flood of record on the Mississippi at St. Paul, with a top 5 flood within reach.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986

More top 5 floods ahead?

This week's rain and snow melt may send several area rivers into "top 5" territory by this weekend or next week.

Rain to snow today into Wednesday:

The rain snow line is setting up pretty much as expected today between the metro and Duluth. As the system draws in colder air, the rain will change to snow tonight, and move south. I expect all snow in the metro by early Wednesday morning.

It still looks like the heavy snow band, and a dangerous winter storm with blizzard conditions, will set up from Brainerd to Duluth. A wind whipped 6" to 12"+ could fall in there areas by late Wednesday.

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect.

In the metro it all depends on when the snow changes over. If it's early tonight, we could see totals from 2" to 4" in the metro, heaviest north. If it's later, the 1" to 3" will be more likely.

NAM snowfall output paints heavy snow band through central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Either way, expect a transition to a few inches of wet slushy snow in the metro Wednesday.

Stay tuned as we track river rises in the coming days.

PH

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Duluth: Blizzard... Metro: Rain & thunder, then snow

Posted at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

Update 12:15 am:

Radars show bands of showers and embedded T-Storms moving northeast through southern Minnesota. Expect heavy rain, lightning and thunder, and possible hail as the storms move through early this Tuesday morning.

The late model runs are cranking out an incredible 1.84" liquid precip for the Twin Cities with this storm. Most will fall as rain Tuesday, but indications are about .41" could fall as wet snow Wednesday. That could translate into 2" to 4" of wet slushy snow by late Wednesday in the metro.

Late night NAM Cobb method yields 2" to 4" snowfall totals for Metro Wednesday. (Click to enlarge)

Stay tuned.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 5:35pm Monday***

After a pretty quiet month, the March Lion is set to roar.

A hybrid winter/spring storm looks like it will roar the loudest from North Dakota through northern and central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. A combination of heavy snow and wind Tuesday night and Wednesday will slam cities and towns including Grand Forks, Fargo, Bemidji, Brainerd, Duluth, Hinckley, Hayward and Rice Lake.

Winter storm warnings are flying for North Dakota, central and northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

The system:

Low pressure is spinning out of the Rockies headed for the Upper Midwest Tuesday. This a good track to bring heavy precip to Minnesota.

Low track across Iowa. (Click to enlarge all graphics)

Thermal profile:

The storm is forecast to track east through Iowa. Milder air with this hybrid winter/spring system will mean the initial waves of precip Tuesday will be mostly rain. As colder air filters in Tuesday night & Wednesday, precip will change over to snow from north to south.

It looks like most of the precip will fall as snow in Brainerd and Duluth (mixing with rain to start), and most will fall as rain ending with some wet snow in the metro.

Timing:

Expect waves of rain to move in after midnight into Tuesday morning and continue on and off as the changeover to snow occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday from north to south.

Thunder?

There could be enough rising air, what meteorologists like to call "upward vertical velocity"... to produce a few thunderstorms Tuesday, especially afternoon & evening.

Severe risk?

SPC has included southwest Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather. This is the first time this year any part of Minnesota has been included in a severe risk area.

Welcome to spring.

Rain & Snowfall totals:

The system should deliver widespread rain to southern Minnesota and heavy snow up north.

The NAM model is cranking out as much as 1'+ for the metro and points north.

The band of heaviest snow appears to be setting up from Fargo through Brainerd to Duluth. It looks like 6" to 12" of wet wind driven snow may fall in the heavy snow band. Areas around Duluth could see 12"+!

At this point, I think 1" to 3" of wet slushy snow could fall in the metro Wednesday. The best chance fo 3" will be in the norhtern suburbs.

Flood impacts:

An inch or more of rainfall will have an impact on rising rivers. NWS Hydrology has factored this in to the latest set of river forecasts Monday, and the latest forecasts are here.

Overall most river forecasts were raised between 1 and 2 feet later this week into the weekend.

Stay tuned as our next storm moves into Minnesota.

PH

Flood Update: River forecasts raised 1 to 2 feet

Posted at 3:54 PM on March 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Winter/spring 2011

Update 4pm:

Updated river forecasts from NCRFC are in reflecting this week's anticipated rain & snow. The bottom line is that hydrologists have raised (most but not all) river forecast levels about 1.5 feet for most rivers by this weekend.

See the updated forecasts here.

PH

***Original post 9:03 am***

They're busy crunching some new numbers today at the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen.

As a new storm system rolls into the forecast for Minnesota Tuesday & Wednesday, the potential for heavy rain and snow will likely send river crest forecasts higher. River forecasts through the weekend did not include the latest batch of precipitation.

Wintery weather makes a comeback this week. (Click to enlarge)

The system will bring rain late tonight into Tuesday morning. Forecast models are cranking out some heavy rain totals with the system, over an inch in some cases. The latest NAM run wrings out 1.23" of liquid precip for the metro, most of which falls as rain.

NAM wrings out .50" to 1"+ precip through Wednesday.

As the system pulls in colder air Tuesday night, rain will change to a wind-driven wet snow from north to south. Winter storm watches are flying for most of the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. A blizzard watch has been hoisted for Duluth and the North Shore.

Watches posted. (Click to enlarge)

After a rainy Tuesday that could include bouts of thundery rain, It looks like the metro will see a changeover to wet snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. It's still a little early to pinpoint Metro & southern Minnesota snowfall totals with this developing system, but the potential for a few inches of slushy accumulation is there early Wednesday.

NAM snowfall pastes northern Minnesota with 6"+ but keeps heavy snow north of metro...for now.

Bottom line: Expect rain Tuesday, possibly heavy totals of 1" in some places... changing to snow by Wednesday.

Flood forecast changes:

Heavy rainfall totals of 1" will make for some changes in river forecasts this week. As you might guess, most of those changes should be to raise projected river levels later this week.

If the models are right and rainfall totals 1" or more, that could send a "shock wave" of water with rapid runoff into rivers in southern Minnesota. It may also serve to "flush" some of the moisture still lingering in soils above rivers quickly into river systems, causing more rapidly rising river levels this week.

Here are the main things to watch with regard to river levels and forecasts as this critical week unfolds.

-All creeks & rivers in southern Minnesota are on the rise this week.

-Watch for (rapidly?) changing flood forecasts this week form the NCRFC.

While all rivers will rise this week, the biggies to keep an eye on this week seem to be: These forecasts do NOT include rainfall this week, which could push levels even higher.

The Crow River @ Delano:

The Crow is forecast to rise to "major" flood stage of 18.6' by this weekend. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Crow @ Delano -Current forecast 18.6'

24.95 Water begins to flow over the dike on the west side of town.
21.85 Water may begin to flow over the bridge on Bridge Street.
21.05 Water begins to flow over the dike on the east side of the river at Second Street.
20.3 Water seeps through east bank along N River Street/CR 17.
18.95 Sanitary sewers may need plugging at this stage to prevent water from backing up into homes.
18.35 The southwest part of Delano begins to experience flooding.
16.85 Storms sewers may need plugging to prevent river water from backing up into city streets.
15.35 Water begins encroaching on Mill Avenue north of Watertown.
14.85 Minor basement flooding may begin to occur at homes closest to the river.
13.85 Carver County Road 123 between Mayer and Watertown becomes flooded.

The Cottonwood @ New Ulm:

The Cottonwood is also forecast to hit "major" flood stage of 17.1' by Thursday. Latest hydrograph here.

Impacts: Cottonwood @ New Ulm: -Current Forecast 17.1'

13 Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood Street west of the river.
11 Flood waters begin to impact low lying areas...and some roads along the river.

The Minnesota River @ Mankato, Henderson, Jordan, Shakopee & Savage.

Forecasts going into the weekend had the Minnesota rising to moderate flood stage at locations between Mankato & the Twin Cities.

The forecast river levels (as of early Monday am) would mean top a 10 flood of record on the Minnesota including:

Mankato: 25.5' (10th highest)
Henderson: 737.6' (7th highest)
Jordan: 31.5' (9th highest)
Shakopee: 715.3' (8th highest)
Savage: 711.7' (8th highest)

Mississippi River:

The Minnesota feeds into the Mississippi, so any adjustments for higher river levels this week on the Minnesota will affect flow (and river levels) into the mighty Misssissippi.

Minnehaha Creek:

One (underreported?) aspect of this year's flood threat is the potential for rising waters and urban flooding on Minnehaha Creek and other metro creeks. The Minnehaha Creek Watershed District has a nifty flood map that shows potential for flood along the creek's path this spring.

(Click to enlarge)

You can enter an address and check out flood potential for you neighborhood here.

You can sign up for flood updates in Carver County here.

Keep an eye out here for the latest changes in river flood forecasts as we move into this week.

PH

Flood update encouraging; "Supermoon" shines bright!

Posted at 5:20 PM on March 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

It may be too early to breathe in a big sigh of relief just yet, but the latest batch of river forecasts from NWS Friday give us room to breathe a bit easier.

The latest NWS flood updates are out, and the news is encouraging.

Friday's river forecasts stop well short of the threshold of record river levels on most area rivers. While many rivers approach "major" flood stage by late next week, the previous forecasts of record levels appear to be unlikely, at least for now.

It's still relatively early in the process, and the amount of rain over the weekend combined with the potential for rain and or snow next week could raise the flood threat. Flood watches and warnings have been issued for many area rivers.

Here are the latest forecasts for some major river points in southern Minnesota as of Friday afternoon. (Specific forecasts for the Red River have not been issued yet)

Mississippi River at St. Paul: Friday's forecast timeline has the river still rising through next Friday to a level of 15.1 feet. This forecast keeps the level 10'+ short of record territory, and well below last year's crest of 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010.

(Click all images to enlarge)

The previous forecast had a 48% chance of reaching the record flood level of 26.40 ft reached on 04/16/1965. Friday's forecast seems to suggest the Mississippi will plateau well short of that territory this spring.

Here are the top 15 crests for the Mississippi at St. Paul. The current forecast for next Friday would tie for the 13th highest crest on record.

Historical Crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.38 ft on 03/24/2010
(9) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(10) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(11) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957
(12) 15.45 ft on 05/04/1975
(13) 15.10 ft on 04/10/1994
(14) 14.51 ft on 06/23/2001
(15) 14.07 ft on 06/26/1984

Still the river may continue to rise well into April. Longer range outlooks show increasing chances for higher river levels the first two weeks of April. (Note: This simualtion was last updated as of February 28th.)

Minnesota River:

With the exception of Henderson, most river forecast points along the Minnesota appear to be encouraging.

Crow River at Delano:

This is some good news. Previous forecast for the Crow indicated a 35% chance of reaching record flood stage for the Crow in Delano.

St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The forecast of 84 feet at Stillwater by next Friday is good news. Though the River is still rising at that point, the lift bridge isn't closed until the river reaches 86 feet.

Bottom line: While flooding is expected as early as next week, the latest batch of river forecasts do not bring river levels to near record levels in most locations.

Lighter than average precipitation in the first half of March has helped lower porjected river crests. Only .33" of precip has fallen at MSP Airport in March.

Weekend shot of rain:

Rain and or snow in the next week will have an impact on rivers, but the effect is unclear at this time.

It looks like our next shot of rain will roll in Saturday night. This will be a significant rain, with forecast modles cranking out anywhere from around .25" to as much as .80" in one or two shots Saturday night into Sunday.

Stay tuned for further updates as we head into early next week.

"Super" bad moon on the rise:

Some call it the "Supermoon." You just may call it brighter than usual. The closest full moon (perigee) to earth in 18 years will mean the full moon appears 14% bigger and 30% brighter this weekend than when the moon is farther away (apogee).

We may not see the full moon on Saturday night with clouds and rain, but check it out tonight and Sunday evening if you can!

PH

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Why flood gauges vary locally

Posted at 6:33 PM on March 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

As we head into flood season in the next week, you may be confused by some of the river levels you hear on area rivers. You're not alone.

Here's an example.

On the Minnesota River at Granite Falls "flood stage" is 888 feet.

Just up the river in Montevideo, flood stage is 14 feet.

Why the difference?

At Granite Falls the gauge is based on elevation above sea level. In Montevideo, it's based on what's called a "zero point" somewhere on the river locally. I know, I don't get it either.

The best way I've heard this explained is that through the years, gauges have been added at different locations using different local measurements to set the flood gauge. Historically gauges have been different, and local control has been the deciding factor in how a gauge reads at any location.

My partner in weather crime (and former Twin Cities NWS Chief) Craig Edwards tells me that many years ago there was an effort to standardize river gauges nationwide. That effort fell to the usual politics and red tape surrounding the cost of replacing many of the river gauges, and with local officials wanting to keep things as they were because they felt their local residents understood that current system.

I'll be posting more info in the coming days to help with interpreting river levels and forecasts. In the mean time, here's a guide to hydrologic information on the web from NOAA.

You can access the latest river hydrographs and flood forecasts for southern Minnesota rivers here.

Red River forecasts info is here.

PH

NWS issues new river forecasts; Snow melt "microclimates"

Posted at 4:25 PM on March 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Winter/spring 2011

The NWS issued some updated river forecasts Wednesday.

River Forecasts have been issued for Redwood, Cottonwood, South Fork of the Crow, Crow and Chippewa Rivers.

According to the North Central River Forecast Center, there is still too much uncertainty to issue forecasts for other rivers in Minnesota.

From NWS today:

"Too much uncertainty still exists for the Long Prairie, Sauk, Minnesota, Mississippi and St Croix for river forecasts to be issued at this time. As certainty of the snow melt increases, river level forecasts may be issued later this week and into the weekend."

The latest hydrological outlook gives the latest information on other area rivers.

It's interesting to me to note that while some of today's forecasts indicate major flooding by this weekend, I do not see any forecast of floods in "record" territory yet.

Stay tuned for updates as hydrologists fine tune predictions in the coming days.

Snow melt "microclimates:"

I know, only a "true" weather geek would even think this is cool.

It is interesting to look around the landscape these days and see the wide variations in snow cover left on the ground. In one neighborhood there is bare grass showing up now, and in others such as near Huttner the Weather Lab, there is still deep snow.

Weather Lab still sporting 14.5" snow depth in the back yard! For comparison MSP Airport reported 5" Wednesday morning.

There are a couple of major factors that determine how quickly snow melts in your yard.

Directional slope:

The directional slope of land determines how quickly snow melts in spring. If the slope faces south or southwest, the sun's rays strike the land surface more directly, and more incoming solar energy is available to melt snow.

If your yard slopes north (like the Huttner Weather Lab) the reflective nature of snow (high albedo) and the effectively lower sun angle has trouble melting snow.

Deep snow in Weather Lab back yard. Grass by April I hope!

Tree cover:

Density and type of tree cover makes a difference in the rate of snow melt. Dense tree cover blocks solar energy from the sun's rays, and leads to slower melting.

Coniferous trees have a bigger effect shading the north side, but can create faster melting through the "pine tree effect" on the south side by bouncing the suns rays and warming those areas more quickly. Ever notice how the south side of pine trees is snow free first?

A little "pine tree effect" on the west side of the Weather Lab spruce trees.

Bottom line?

If your yard faces south and you have few trees, or pine trees on the north side of your yard, you're going to see the grass a lot sooner.

If like the Weather Lab you slope north and have dense tree cover, it still looks like mid winter in your back yard.

PH

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Snow Cover: Going ... going ... gone?

Posted at 5:47 PM on March 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Winter/spring 2011

It's amazing what a little rain can do.

Did you feel it? Did you hear the pitter patter? Did you feel the raindrops on your face? Did you hear sound of liquid water splashing on the street?

Tuesday's rain was like water therapy for winter weary Minnesotans. With showers and temps in the 40s it actually looked, sounded and felt like spring in Minnesota.

Narrow band of showers sails east.

While totals were light (MSP Airport .02"), the effect on snow cover was noticeable. We started the day with 6" on the ground at MSP Airport, that number will drop daily this week, and it looks like we'll be left with a few dirty snow piles by this weekend.

More rain on the way:

Tuesday's rain was the first bout this week. We could see a few sprinkles late Wednesday and it looks like another shot of light rain may slide through Thursday.

I'm still watching the potential for a bigger rainmaker Saturday night into early Sunday. This system is likely to produce more widespread steady rainfall, and early indications are rainfall totals could add up to .50" or more.

The GFS is hinting at another potential rainmaker (snow north?) next Tuesday.

With 50s this week, and nights above freezing our snowcover should pretty much be toast after the rain Sunday.

Good riddance I say!

Flood update Thursday:

I posted this morning about the latest flood risk.

I picked up some signals that the hydrologists at the NCRFC are busy crunching new numbers that factor in this week's warm-up and rainfall forecasts. Another flood outlook is due out Thursday, and there may be some significant changes to river forecasts.

Rivers slightly responding to snow melt Tuesday??

Stay tuned!

PH

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Instant spring at Target Field; flood threat; Japan fallout

Posted at 7:55 AM on March 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Target Field, Winter/spring 2011

Let's start with the good news!

Here's a lighter note in a world of troubling news to start your Tuesday.

Spring began at Target Field Monday!

I had a chance to chat with Minnesota Twins Head Groundkeeper Larry DiVito at Monday evening's AMS meeting in the Champion's Club at Target Field. Larry and his crew peeled off the agricultural fabric used to cover the turf at TF Monday.

"Winter began November 13th, and it ended today" said DiVito.

Larry has had the underground heaters turned on all winter long at TF. With the heaters set in the upper 30s and the tarp and snow cover on top of the field, the turf never really froze this winter at TF. These days, Larry cranks up the heaters to a comfy 52 degrees about 10" under the turf.

Larry and his crew are working this week to get Target Field turf ready for baseball. Now there's a sure sign of spring in Minnesota!

Edwards dazzles AMS meeting:

My partner in weather crime, MPR & Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards put on a good show Monday night at the AMS Twin Cities Chapter meeting. Craig eloquently described the first season of providing weather support at Target Field, including some close calls and highlights. I had the pleasure of giving last months' AMS talk about weather coverage at MPR, and this was Craig's turn.

Edwards works the crowd in the Champion's Club at Target Field.

Fortunately the Twins lead charmed weather lives in 2010, seeming to dodge nearly every storm with only 2 games significantly affected by rain. Let's hope the good luck continues for fans in 2011! My weather "spidey senses" tell me the "law of weather averages" will make Craig a busier weather beaver at Target Field in 2011.

Gratuitous Target Field factoid:

Did you know there are 4.5 miles of "beer pipe" running through Target Field to pump beer to the concessions stands? I didn't either, until last night. I happened to snap a picture of the lines running high above the interior walkway heading the Target Field Weather Lab. (FYI, this was a "dry" AMS meeting.)

Talk about underground "utilities." Anyone besides me thirsty?

"Beer pipe" running under Target Field.

Warming trend kicks into high gear:

You'll really start to notice it's feeling more like spring today and the rest of this week. Southerly winds will prevail most of this week and into next week. With the exception of a minor speed bump on Friday, it looks like we will see a string of days in the 40s and 50s over the next week.

Warm week ahead. (Click to enlarge)

It looks like temperatures in much of Minnesota have a shot at 50 Wednesday, Thursday and again over the weekend into early next week. Temps will be running about 10 to 15 degrees above average this week. 50 is the average high in the metro for April 3rd!

Milder nights too!

One feature of this warm up is that temperatures may stay at or above freezing starting early Wednesday and lasting right into next week in much of Minnesota!

Rapid snow melt:

The string of days in the 40s and 50s and above freezing nights mean the pace of snow melt is going to increase rapidly this week. Several inches of snow will melt in the next week, and many locations could be down to dirty piles of snow by Sunday.

One thing to remember is that the snow that's left is nearly "glaciated" in many spots. That is to say, a winter's worth of water and ice is compresses and still locked up in the bottom few inches of the snow. That makes the last few inches the toughest to melt. (Kind of like losing those last few pounds?)

Flood threat grows:

As the snow melts, water will increase runoff into area rivers and streams this week. The hydrologists at the NCRFC recognize this, and they are in the process of running new models to gauge the increasing flood threat this week.

There is still a good 4" to 6"+ snow water equivalent (SWE) in the snow in the Minnesota River watershed.

4" to 6"+ snow water content in Minnesota River watershed.

Here's the latest flood outlook from NWS.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
452 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

PLEASE REFERENCE THE NWS TWIN CITIES RIVER WEBSITE AT
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX

"Rain shock" ahead?

The big wild card in spring flooding is always heavy rain. There are signs that after a couple of chances for light rain this week, (Today & Wednesday) a stronger rain system may move in late Saturday night and Sunday.

Some models are printing out the potential for as much as 1" of rain with this warm, spring like system.

Heavy rain Sunday? (Click to enlarge)

If we get an inch of rain on top of frozen ground following a week of rapid snow melt, that may "flush" copious amounts of runoff into area rivers & creeks. The resulting "rain shock" can send rivers rapidly higher, and we could quickly transition into rapidly rising rivers with the potential for ice jams and with rapidly fluctuating river levels in the next week to 10 days.

Stay tuned as the flood threat could grow quickly in the next week.

A bad wind in Japan:

Weather and wind conditions seem to have taken an unfavorable turn in Japan.

Let me be the first to say I don't think we really have hard information as to exactly what levels of radiation may or may not be escaping into the atmosphere from the reactors in Fukushima. But news reports of detectable radiation in Tokyo are not good.

At this point in time, we just don't know what the scope of the disaster will eventually be.

What we do know from the Japan Meteorological Agency is that surface winds had been blowing out to seas, but have turned inland over the past day or so. A low pressure system off Japan's east coast has turned winds into a more easterly direction, and that may be carrying radiation emissions in the lowest mile of the atmosphere inland to the west and southwest to more populated areas.

Surface map shows low off Japan's east coast. (Click to enlarge)

Surface winds tredning "inland." (Click for bigger image)

Could emissions reach the USA?

In the event of a bigger release of radiation, some are asking if radioactivity could reach the USA. The short answer is yes. The best answer may be, it depends.

There is an entire sub-science of meteorology called "plume dispersion modeling." I used to work for a firm in Chicago that did environmental consulting in plume dispersion for the nuclear power industry.

In fact, part of my responsibility was to issue detailed wind trajectory forecasts for a nuke plant. That forecast (wind direction and speed) would be used in case of a nuclear emergency such as we are witnessing in Japan. I lived 8 miles from that plant. Talk about a humbling forecast responsibility that hit close to home!

In the event large amounts of radiation were released in Japan above 10,000 feet or so, the prevailing westerly winds would carry the "plume" eastward across the Pacific Ocean toward the USA.

The good news is the plume would tend to disperse along the way. The bad news is the radioactive isotopes don't decay quickly, and there could be fallout in the USA, especially from rain. I am not a plume dispersion modeler, and therefore unable to make specific forecasts of what might happen in the event of a large release of radiation.

But I can tell you this, people a lot smarter than me will be working on that question.

Bottom line? While there is no need for any action or panic in the USA, the situation is worth keeping an eye on.

Stay tuned.

PH

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Milder days ahead: Flood updates, La Nina fades

Posted at 9:24 AM on March 10, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, La Nina, Winter/spring 2011

Old man winter has been a grumpy old bear this year, but he's showing signs of easing up the next few days.

A change in the jet stream to a more "zonal" flow (west to east) will bring increasingly mild Pacific air masses to the Upper Midwest in the next week.

Modles indicate several days in the 40s ahead. (Click to enlarge)

One critical factor in the magnitude of our warming trend over the next week is the amount of snow cover in Iowa. There are only a couple of inches in most of Iowa, and much of that may be gone later today or on Friday.

Snow depth: Bare ground to the south!

As warmer southerly breezes blow in from Iowa over the next week, they will have less time to "modify" over the snow covered areas of southern Minnesota. That will mean increasingly milder air in the days to come on days when we have a south wind. The first "test" of that theory will be Friday, when a milder southerly breeze will blow in from Iowa.

How warm will it go? The forecast NAM 850 millibar (5,000 foot) temp at MSP Airport is about +4 degrees C Friday afternoon. In late spring with no snow on the ground that would yield a "potential" temperature of around 60 degrees under sunny skies and ideal conditions.

With deep snow cover, the air mass will modify and cool accordingly Friday...but I still think it's possible temps should soar well into the 40s Friday in southern Minnesota, and I would not be stunned to see a 50 degree reading somewhere in southern Minnesota, maybe close ot the metro... Friday afternoon.

After an abrupt cool down into the 30s this weekend behind a cold front Saturday, I do expect temps to recover into the 40s again next week, with another shot at 50 not out of the question as snow cover begins to melt .

Flood update today:

The NWS issues updated flood outlooks on Thursdays. As the snow melts at an increasing rate in the next week, we should start to see some rivers respond with rises.

The big factor in flood potential is snow water equivalent (SWE) still trapped in snowpack and the top layer of soil. As you can see from the NOHRSC map below, there is still agood 6" to 8" of liquid water equivalent available as "runoff" once the snow melts in the Minnesota and Red River watersheds.

Also note the 12"+ SWE around the BWCAW in northeast Minnesota. Lakes should be high and rivers in the BWCAW, and along the North Shore should be raging this spring.

You can see today's flood outlook updates below.

-Twin Cites NWS (Minnesota, Mississippi, St. Croix % Crow Rivers)
-Grand Forks NWS (Red River)

If you think weather forecasting is complicated, try a career as a hydrologist. They use complicated models with sometimes sparse and incomplete data (sounds familiar!) from snow cover analysis and river gauges. Flood forecasting is a science all it's own, and I have a ton of respect for the hydrologists who work hard to keep us ahead of the curve with rising river levels in flood season.

If you've ever had a tough time deciphering those "probabilistic outlooks" check out this excellent explanation from the Grand Forks NWS web site.

Flood radio show:

You can hear a special flood radio show from the NWS La Crosse tonight from 7-8pm here. Here are some of the topics NWS La Crosse will cover tonight.

Spring Flooding Live NOAA Weather Radio Show - March 10th (7-8 PM)

In addition, they will be answering questions pertaining to flooding. These can be e-mailed either before or during the show by using the following e-mail address: Jeff.Boyne@noaa.gov. They will also be taking phone call questions during the broadcast. The phone numbers to be used will be provided during the show.

La Crosse wins "golden snow shovel."

Our rather wimpy Wednesday snowmaker did manage to crank out an impressive 6.2" of snowfall at the La Crosse NWS office. Congratulations (condolences?) La Crosse, you win the golden snow shovel award with the latest weather system. There were some respectable snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa and Wisconsin.

Wednesday's snowfall map. (Click to enlarge)

La Nina fades:

Today's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion highlights the now fading la Nina in the tropical pacific. Forecasts call for a likely return to "ENSO neutral" conditions by summer. This could mean our spring like weather may be closer to "average" in the Upper Midwest...which means, expect a little bit of everything with wild swings in temperatures and periodic storms.

What else would we expect in Minnesota?

PH

Record Flood Risk: St. Paul, Shakopee, Fargo, Delano

Posted at 5:22 PM on March 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (8 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding

The flood picture got a little clearer Thursday with the latest NWS Spring Flood Outlook. You may want to look away if you're sqeamish.

The headlines that jump out from the latest outlook include:

Major flooding is likely along most area rivers this spring.

Here's the (somewhat alarming) text from the latest NWS Spring Flood Outlook.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CST THU MAR 3 2011

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...MINNESOTA...CROW...MISSISSIPPI FOR ST PAUL AND DOWNSTREAM AND THE ST CROIX...IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING LIKLEY AND CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR RECORD FLOODING...

One of the remarkable features in the outlook is that area rivers may not just flood, or hit "major flood stages" but the high percentages of record flooding.

Again, here is the text from NWS:

SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF 20 PERCENT OR MORE OF EXCEEDING THEIR FLOOD OF RECORDS. THE LOCATIONS INCLUDE

*COTTONWOOD RIVER
- NEW ULM
*MINNESOTA RIVER
-NEW ULM
-MANKATO
-HENDERSON
-JORDAN
-SHAKOPEE
*SOUTH FORK OF THE CROW AND CROW RIVER
- MAYER
- DELANO
- ROCKFORD
*MISSISSIPPI
- ST PAUL
- HASTINGS
- RED WING

And here are some numbers.

Risk of reaching record flood stage:

Mississippi River:

St. Paul 48%
Hastings 25%

Minnesota River:

Henderson 25%
Jordan 38%
Shakopee 40%

Red River: (Latest outlook here.)

Fargo-Moorhead: 33%

St. Croix:

Stillwater 18%

South Fork Crow River:

Delano 33%

Potential Effects: So what does it all mean?

Numbers are eye catching, but don't always bring much meaning or perspective to a story.

The potential effects of record flood levels described by NWS in the outlook are sobering, to say the least.
(Click for bigger, easy to read images with (my) highlights)

For the Mississippi:

For the Minnesota:

For the South Fork Crow & St. Croix:

Digging Deeper: Why such a high risk of record flooding this year?

The bulk of narrative from the NWS Spring Flood Outlook tells the story in greater detail. My highlights in bold.

DUE TO THE SEPTEMBER RAINS...WATER LEVELS AND SOIL MOISTURE WERE STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE WENT INTO THE WINTER FREEZE IN MID TO LATE NOVEMBER. THIS SET THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH A SPRING MELT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE RIVER BASINS ARE QUITE SIGNIFICANT. RECENT SNOW CORE AND REMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN CHIPPEWA BASINS. FOR THE UPPER MINNESOTA BASIN...5 TO 7 INCHES OF WATER IS PRESENT IN THE BASIN. FROM A COMPARISON PERSPECTIVE IN THE PAST 60YEARS...THIS IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE RANKINGS FOR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS. SO...WHILE WE DID LOSE SOME WATER DURING THE BRIEF WARM UP DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY...MOST OF THE WATER IS STILL CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK...SOILS OR THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

Right now I see the likely timing for the onset of flooding to begin in earnest the week of March 20th, with river levels possibly reaching peak around the first week of April. That could change depending on how the weather unfolds over the next 2-3 weeks.

It's going to be a wild ride this spring on area rivers.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Spring Flood Update: Major flooding still likely

Posted at 3:10 PM on February 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding

Today's updated flood forecasts from the NWS and the North Central River Forecast Center paints the same basic picture. Major flooding is likely this spring on virtually all rivers in the Upper Midwest including the Red, Minnesota, Mississippi, and St. Croix.

Here are some highlights from today's updated Spring Food Outlook:
(click to enlarge images)

I spoke with NWS hydrologist Diane Cooper this week about the updated numbers, and current conditions that go into the updated flood outlook. Here are some highlights.

-In spite of recent snow melt, much of the water equivalent is still trapped in the reduced snow cover as it works its way down toward the soil. There is still a good 3" to 6" of "water equivalent" in some much of the snowpack over Minnesota that will melt and run into area watersheds this spring.

-It is very difficult for hydrologists to get exact measurements of just where the water is in the runoff system at this point in the season. South facing slopes have bare ground, but there is still deep snow on north facing slopes and in deep woods. It takes time for melt water to work its way down from snowpack, into fields and farms, into creeks and rivers. Flood gauges will pick up the water increases after the water is already in area rivers.

-The forecast models this spring are showing some remarkably high numbers for certain area rivers. One scenario has floodwaters topping the floodwall in South St. Paul. That could produce results we have not seen in and near St. Paul in years, if not decades.

While the bigger focus is on area rivers, there is also concern this year about flooding on about area creeks such as Minnehaha Creek. Residents and business along area creeks that have not experienced flooding in previous years should take extra precautions this year.

The bottom line is that major (and possibly record) flooding is still likely this year. The weather in the next month will determine just how severe flooding is this spring. If it stays dry and we get a slower melt, flood crests will be lower. If it gets wet and we get a rapid melt with more snow and rain in between, look out.

PH

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Spring Floods: Why the dice are loaded

Posted at 6:29 PM on January 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

It's no surprise that the NWS came out with a potentially dire preliminary flood forecast today. All the ingredients are already in place for major spring flooding on virtually all rivers in the Upper Midwest.

The NWS is right to say if you live anywhere near a river or stream and are at risk of being flooded, buy flood insurance today! It takes 30 days for flood insurance policies to kick in.

Here are the updated preliminary spring flood outlooks from NWS.

-Twin Cities (Mississippi, Minnesota & Crow Rivers)

-Red River Valley

Here's the headline form Grand Forks NWS:

"For the Southern Red River Basin: Current spring flood outlooks indicate that much of the southern basin, including the Fargo-Moorhead area, already has a higher risk of spring flood levels than were seen in advance of the 2006 or 2010 major flood events. There is a 20 to 25 percent chance that areas near Fargo-Moorhead could see flood levels approach the record levels set back in the early spring of 2009. Continued much above normal snowfall through the remainder of the winter will likely continue to drive that risk slightly upward in later outlooks."

Here are three main reasons why major flooding is highly likely along Minnesota's rivers this spring.

1) A wet fall:

You may recall the unprecedented record floods in September that sent some rivers to all time record highs. Late summer and autumn rainfall was several inches above average in much of the region. That means rivers, streams, lakes and soils were already at capacity going into the freeze.

In fact 2010 was the 2nd wettest on record in Minnesota history, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Top Ten Annual Mean Precipiation Records for Minnesota
1895-2010

Rank Value Year
---------------
1 33.92 1977
2 33.64 2010 *
3 33.27 1965
4 33.22 1968
5 32.54 1991
6 32.32 2005
7 32.31 1905
8 31.68 1986
9 31.64 1993
10 31.57 1903

Snow melt this spring will send already brimming rivers quickly higher.

2) Heavy winter snowfall:

One look outside the window tells you all you need to know about Minnesota's snow pack. Our series of massive winter storms have blanketed the Upper Midwest with heavy snow cover.

Snow depth exceeds 16" in much of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

The water content (snow water equivalent-SWE) in that snow pack ranges from 3" to 8" in much of the region.

Water content in snow pack (snow water equivalent) shows 4" to 8" in Minnesota & Red River Valley watersheds.

That's like 6" rain storm waiting to be unloaded into area rivers once melting begins in the spring. The damage is already done; so to speak...that snow isn't going away before spring.

3) La Nina:

The deck is already stacked in favor of major spring floods. La Nina may be the "wild card."

Our strong (but fading?) La Nina episode has delivered on the statistically favored colder than average winter in the Upper Midwest. There is also a bias toward cool wet springs in la Nina years. A wet spring could add more fuel to the fire in the spring flood scenario.

If heavy spring rains occur, the rapid snowmelt will send rivers into shock flood mode.

What to watch for:

The weather in the next 8 weeks is critical, and will determine how severe spring flooding will be.

Worst case scenario:

-Heavy late winter snows with high water content. The "Panhandle Hookers" that wind up in the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region bring wet heavy snows. We've been lucky so far that while many of our storms have produced heavy snowfall totals, the snow:water ratio has been relatively dry...often around 15:1. A few more wet storms will add a lot of water to already charged snow pack.

-Late thaw...rapid spring warm up. If the snow continues to accumulate, then we get a rapid period of warm weather in March that will send torrents of water into area rivers in a shot period of time.

-Heavy spring rains. A big slow moving spring storm with heavy rains would also send a "shock wave" of high water into area rivers. This is the nightmare scenario that will keep flood forecasters and river residents up at night over the next two months.

Best case scenario:

There are several factors that could mitigate flooding this spring.

-Below average snowfall through March

Our 55.4" of snowfall this winter has put the Twin Cities on pace for a top 10 snowfall season. If we get average snowfall for the rest of the winter season (about 22") that would put the metro at about 77" for the season...and vault us into top 10 territory and put us near the 5 snowiest winter threshold of 81.3".

If we are somehow able to continue the current "snow drought" into the spring and end up below that 22" average...that would help...some.

-Gradual thaw?

If we see a nice slow warm up this spring, that would help discharge snow melt into area rivers a little at a time. Ideal scenario? Days above freezing and night below freezing to generate a nice slow "controlled" discharge of snow melt.

-Little spring rain

Another factor that could mitigate spring flooding would be a dry spring. Unfortunately there is a bias toward wetter than average springs in La Nina years. Anything can happen though. A nice dry March and early April would help...a lot.

Stay tuned!

PH

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Epic Australia flood video & snow in 49 States

Posted at 11:19 PM on January 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Snow

This is one of the "best" flash flood videos I have ever seen.

Torrential rains trigger epic flash floods in Australia. This is the anatomy of a flash flood.

Notice how it's not pouring rain where this video is shot, but upstream the deluge is sending a wall of water toward the videographer. It doesn't take long to turn cars into "floaty toys."

Remember it only takes 6" of swiftly moving water to knock a person of their feet. And it's painfully obvious in the video that only 2 feet of swift water can send cars floating downstream.

Snow in 49 states today:

Here's the latest snowcover image from NOHRSC.

Snow cover is reported in 49 of 50 states in the USA today. Snow covers nearly 70% of the USA, and is present in every state except Florida. There's even snow in Hawaii with snow on Mauna Kea.

Automated Model Discussion:
January 11, 2011

Area Covered By Snow: 69.4%
Area Covered Last Month: 33.1%

Snow Depth
Average: 6.9 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 897.2 in
Std. Dev.: 11.4 in

Snow Water Equivalent
Average: 1.4 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 434.9 in
Std. Dev.: 3.0 in

While it might seem unusual, snow all the way into the Deep South in mid-winter is not that uncommon. You may recall last winter there was also snow in nearly every state in February.

There are also reports of snow in all 50 states in January of 1977.

Do we feel better in Minnesota now that nearly everyone is sharing our snow cover?

PH

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Turning off the fasten your seatbelt sign

Posted at 6:45 AM on October 28, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding

After the sun went down yesterday Mother Nature put in a few extra hours of overtime, delivering gusty winds of over forty miles an hour to portions of the Great Lakes. Today the wind will gust to thirty miles an hour at times creating wind chill readings in the teens this morning. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for the coldest night of the autumn season over much of the state. The Metro area will final see minimum temperatures fall below freezing.

Exhuberant meteorologists shared comments on Facebook about the intensity of this expansive and record breaking low pressure system. Two centers of circulation merged over Minnesota on Tuesday to spawn a single storm center; Cyclone Minnie formed near Little Falls. The lowest barometric pressure was measured at Big Fork and validated by the State Climate Office. This one is in the record books in a number of ways, from barometric pressure to snowfall and rainfall totals.

Yesterday, Duluth set a record with 4.3 inches of snow for the date. Check out the other records from Duluth.

Check out the details of this storm courtesy of the staff at NWS Duluth.

A record daily rainfall was set at Fargo on Tuesday with nearly 1.25 inches of precipitation. Many tributaries in the Red River Valley are rising beyond bankfall. Flood Warnings have been posted along the Red River. Here's a link to monitor the predicted river levels.

Nearly seven and half inches of rain has fallen since September first at Fargo/Moorhead. This excessive total is more than three and a half inches above normal. Do we dare say that the soil, going into the winter season,is saturated?Hydrologists will be all over this for potential flooding in the spring of 2011.

I'm pleased to share with you that the forecasters from Grand Forks NWS and the hydrologists from the North Central River Forecast Center received the Department of Commerce Silver Medal in a ceremony in Silver Springs, Maryland last week. The prediction of the crest on the Red River of the North at Fargo for March of 2009 was within inches of the measured, historical level.

Looking for the silver lining in all this? Check out the eight to fourteen day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center heading into November. Precipitation for this same period is expected to be below the seasonal normal.

Minnesota River cresting at Jordan

Posted at 8:18 AM on September 30, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River

The flooded Minnesota appears to be cresting at Jordan today.

The river level is topping out around 33.1 feet. That's very close to the 3rd highest flood on record for the Minnesota at Jordan (33.11') and the first time a top 5 flood has occurred in fall.

The bubble of floodwater now rolls down river toward Chaska, Shakopee and Savage, where the river is expected to crest over the weekend.

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is expected to crest Saturday at 18.4 feet in St. Paul. This should put about 1 foot of water onto Harriet Island.

You can follow the flood on the City of St. Paul webcam here.

September swan song:

September goes out today on a mild note. After yesterday's 74 degree high, it looks like the month will close with temperatures in the Twin Cities running near average at -0.8 degrees.

It was a wet month, with another epic weather event...the flood event in southern Minnesota which produce 6" to 12" rainfall in under two days.

(click to enlarge image)

The Twin Cities picked up 5.53" (+2.98") of rainfall for the month, and we now stand at 26.43" (+2.14") for the year. If we finish the year wetter than average, it will be the first time since 2007.

PH

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Minnesota River: All time flood record...In September!

Posted at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

They don't teach this stuff in meteorology school.

Record floods are supposed to happen in April in Minnesota.

The Minnesota River surpassed the all time flood of record today at Henderson, southwest of the Twin Cities. The river level reached 739.83 feet today. That's above the previous flood of record of 739.65 feet set back on April 11th 1965.

(click for bigger images)

Here are the previous top 5 floods of record for the Minnesota at Henderson.

Historical Crests
(1) 739.65 ft on 04/11/1965
(2) 739.50 ft on 06/23/1993
(3) 739.20 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 738.50 ft on 04/28/2001
(5) 738.17 ft on 04/10/1969

The Minnesota continues to rise as the bubble of water from last weeks flooding rains moves downstream. Here are the latest forecasts for the south metro.

Folks along the Minnesota River in the southwest metro should remain alert for rising waters this week. Here is the latest list of flood related road closures from MNDOT.

Good News for St. Paul?

The swollen Minnesota River pours into the Mississippi before it reaches St. Paul. Thankfully the heaviest rains last week were confined to southern Minnesota and the Minnesota River watershed. That means the mighty Miss will be able to absorb much of the floodwater without producing record levels on the relatively well protected Mississippi in St. Paul. Still, "major" flood stage will be reached and Harriet Island may submerge this week.

Here are the expected flood impacts at various river levels for the Mississippi in St. Paul.

18 Warner Road may become impassable due to high water.
17.5 Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
17 Secondary flood walls are deployed at St Paul Airport.
14 Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to experience flooding.
PH

Rare fall floods set records

Posted at 8:20 AM on September 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

The term "spring flood" is getting a rival this September.

For the first time on record, some southern Minnesota rivers will set top 5 floods of record during fall this week. Last week's torrential rains capped off a wet September with rainfall totals anywhere from 5.5" (metro) to over 12" (south central Minnesota).

Four of the current top 5 record floods on the Minnesota River occurred in spring. The other occurred in June. This will be the first time a top 5 flood has occurred in September. You can track current and forecast river levels here.

The Cottonwood River at New Ulm came within a foot of the all time flood of record last weekend.

Check out some of the expected flood crests on the Minnesota River this week.

Mankato: Cresting today at 28.1' (4th highest flood on record)

Historical Crests
(1) 30.11 ft on 06/21/1993
(2) 29.09 ft on 04/10/1965
(3) 28.20 ft on 04/26/1881
(4) 27.61 ft on 04/10/1997
(5) 27.07 ft on 04/12/1969

Jordan: Crest Wednesday at 32.7' (5th highest)

Historical Crests
(1) 35.07 ft on 04/11/1965
(2) 33.52 ft on 06/24/1993
(3) 33.11 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 32.85 ft on 04/14/1969
(5) 32.24 ft on 04/12/1997

Savage: Cresting Thursday at 718.8' (5th highest)

Historical Crests
(1) 721.80 ft on 04/15/1965
(2) 719.70 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 719.29 ft on 06/25/1993
(4) 718.10 ft on 04/19/2001
(5) 717.86 ft on 04/13/1997

St. Paul: Crest Saturday at 17.9' (Not in top 5)

Historical Crests
(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997

Mild dry weather will help:

The forecast is favorable for flood ravaged communities and rain soaked farm fields over the next two weeks. Minnesota will be on the east side of a ridge of high pressure, which means generally mild and dry weather for the next 10 days to two weeks.

After a wet September, it looks like we'll close the month on a dry note and open October on the mild side.

PH

Update: Major flood event in southern Minnesota

Posted at 3:01 PM on September 23, 2010 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

Update 3pm:

Incredible rainfall totals are still pouring in from southern Minnesota this afternoon. Here are a few from Twin Cities NWS today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

HIGHWAY 52 CLOSED FROM NEAR ZUMBROTA TO PINE ISLAND DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADS /RUNOFF FROM FARM FIELDS/.
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES IN ZUMBROTA COUNTY INCLUDING
HIGHWAY 60 NEAR BOMBAY AND HIGHWAY 56 NEAR WEST CONCORD
DUE TO OVERFLOWING CREEKS.

0215 PM HEAVY RAIN AMBOY M10.53 INCH BLUE EARTH TRAINED SPOTTER

That's 10.5" of rain in 24 hours in Amboy south of Mankato. That's nearly a SUMMER'S worth of rain in one day.

Widespread reports of river, creek and basement flooding continue to flow in. Here's the doppler storm total rainfall loop as of mid-afternoon.

You can clearly see the swath of 6" to 10" north of I-90 in southern Minnesota. Rainfall of 3" to 4" edges right up into southern Dakota and Scott counties in the far south metro. 1" to 2" rainfall is common in the south half of the metro, with lesser amounts north.

The Twin Cities has so far dodged a major flood event by about 50-60 miles.

Here are some rainfall totals for the metro and St. Cloud:

-Twin Cities Airport 2.24"
-Target Field 2.2" (courtesy Larry DiVito Minnesota Twins)
-St. Paul 2.02"
-Eden Prairie (Flying Cloud) 1.96"
-Crystal 1.49"
-St. Cloud .56"

Southeast Minnesota is also getting hit hard wither over 5" in Rochester.

The good news is trends indicate the heaviest, steadiest rains are finally tapering off. There will be a few showers and maybe a clap of thunder this evening, but most of the rain has fallen. Still, it will take hours and days for floodwaters to recede in much of southern Minnesota.

PH

(original post 8:16am)

Persistent heavy rains are causing what can only be described as a major flood event in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rainfall totals of between 4" to over 9" have been reported, with flooding in progress in a swath running north of I-90. This is TWO MONTH'S worth of rain in a day. This is a potentially life threatening situation. Get the latest flood warnings here.

Incredible rainfall totals:

This is going to be a record rainfall event for many Minnesota locations. Here are some rainfall totals as of early Thursday morning. Many of these totals will increase today. We could see some rainfall totals in excess of 1 FOOT by Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
723 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN WELCOME 43.67N 94.62W
09/23/2010 M4.90 INCH MARTIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Here are some additional totals:

-Waseca 8.5"
-Rochester 4.54"

Doppler storm total rainfall shows a swath of 4" to 9" rainfall north of I-90 corridor in south central MN.

Flooding is in progress and will continue today in southern Minnesota. People in areas near rivers and streams should seek higher ground. This is a dangerous situation. Do not drive into flooded waters.

-Twin Cities radar loop

-Twin Cities NEXRAD storm total rainfall loop

Severe threat increasing:

As if two month's worth of rainfall isn't enough, the threat for severe storms will increase in southern Minnesota this afternoon. As the surface low pressure system pulls north with a potent warm front, warm and unstable air will open the door for severe storms.

Keep an eye out for possible severe T-Storm warnings (and even a stray tornado warning) later today.

PH

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Arctic Sea Ice: 2nd lowest on record

Posted at 8:37 AM on September 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Arctic Sea Ice, Flooding

Fall's first salvo in Minnesota means that the Arctic Ocean will soon start freezing up again.

But mid September is also the time when the summer of melting ice in the Arctic reaches its peak. The annual Arctic Sea ice "minimum" usually occurs in mid-September.

A slightly cooler Arctic Summer in 2009 temporarily stemmed the tide of record summer ice melt recent years. But it appears the big melt is back in 2010.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic Sea ice was at the second lowest level on record in August. This is about 240,000 square miles below the average since 1979. That's an area roughly the size of Texas.

2010 continues the long term trend of greater melt of Arctic Sea ice over the past decades.

NSIDC also reports that both the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route are largely ice free and open for possible circumnavigation of the Arctic Sea.

Texas Flood:

It's one of my son's favorite Stevie Ray Vaughn songs, and it's also a weather reality in progress today.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine are swirling over Texas dumping several inches of rain along its path.

Swift water rescues are in progress in parts of Texas today.

Coolest morning in 4 months:

The mercury dipped to 47 in the metro this morning. This marks the coolest temperature in nearly 4 months in the Twin Cities. The last time the temperature was this cool was on May 15th, when the temperature dropped to 45 degrees.

Sunny today; rain returns tomorrow:

Our cool start today will give way to a sunny and milder afternoon. Look for temperatures to approach 70 in southern Minnesota today.

The next weather system is on the way for Thursday. A weak push of moisture will bring a few showers Thursday AM & midday. After a break, a stronger front will push a new batch of rain our way Friday.

(click for bigger image)

Friday's front should sail through Minnesota by early Saturday morning, setting us up for a sunnier and warmer weekend. Look for highs in the 70s this weekend. Averages for the metro by Saturday are 73/53.

Enjoy the sun today!

PH

Weekend Forecast: Mostly nice...a little rain & thunder

Posted at 3:35 PM on July 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Rainfall

This weekend should have a little something for everyone. A little sun, a little heat, a few showers and some thunder.

A fairly typical July weather pattern is setting up this weekend. Saturday will be the hotter more humid day. Look for plenty of increasingly hazy sun in southern Minnesota, with the best chance of scattered thunderstorms roaming the northern half of the state.

A cool front will slide slowly through northern Minnesota Saturday, and ease into the metro and southern Minnesota early Sunday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with the front to light up radars as they pass through.

Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s north and central, but may push 90 in southern Minnesota Saturday. Humidity will be on the rise as dew points climb back through the 60s.

A few of the storms could reach severe threshold this weekend, but if the timing works out right the storms will come through the highly populated metro overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. If that timing holds, the storms MAY have a litte less oomph as they come through the metro, before regenerating in southeast Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for severe storms as the front moves through this weekend.

A slight risk for severe storms favors western and northern Minnesota Saturday.

Drought eases except in Arrowhead:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the effects of recent rains in much of Minnesota. The percentage of area in Minnesota classified in drought status has dropped from 39.2% to 21.9% over the past 3 months.

Drought is still hanging on in Minnesota's Arrowhead region.

Rio Grande flood:

Tropical Depression "Two" has dumped more heavy rain on the Rio Grande watershed along the Texas Mexico border. Coming on the heels of Hurricane Alex, some areas have recieved as much as 20" of rainfall in the past two weeks. Severe flooding is occurring along both the Mexico and U.S. sides of the river.

The Rio Grande was only 3 feet deep a few weeks ago, and is now running 40 feet deep in some areas. Thsi is the highest level in 45 years, and the 3rd highest crest on the Rio Grande in history.

PH

Oklahoma City Flash Flood

Posted at 4:58 PM on June 14, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall, Severe weather

Heavy thunderstorms with torrential rains have swamped parts of the Oklahoma City area with flash floods.

Girl clings to tree in raging flood waters in Oklahoma City. (AP)

As much a 7" of rain has fallen in and near Oklahoma City Monday. Edmond reports 7" of rain so far. Oklahoma City Airport reports a daily rainfall record of 5.88" so far.

Doppler storm total rainfall confirms the swath of heavy rains.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows multi inch rains in Oklahoma City Monday.

The storms have been firing along a weak low pressure system and surface boundary in the southern plains. The area has been the dividing line between intense heat to the south and cooler weather north of the system.

This is an evolving situation that will continue to make headlines in the next 24 to 48 hours.

PH

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Deadly Arkansas floods highlight flash flood danger

Posted at 4:41 PM on June 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding

We don't yet know the final death toll from the devastating Arkansas flash flood. What we do know is that this was a classic flash flood event in many respects.

The event featured:

-Localized heavy rainfall

-Heavy thunderstorms at night

-A remote campground in a canyon next to a river, where many people likely had no warning devices

Here's the summary from the Little Rock NWS.

From AP:

Arkansas flash floods kill at least 20 people
By JILL ZEMAN BLEED (AP) - 56 minutes ago

Two dozen people were hospitalized. Authorities rescued 60 others.

Check out the CNN description of the event. It does a good job of illustrating the dangers of flash floods.

You may remember the deadly August 2007 flood event in southeast Minnesota also occurred at night.

PH

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Rainy Friday arrives

Posted at 1:40 AM on June 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

An active warm front and low pressure center has finally pushed areas of rain into southern Minnesota. Some of the rain is locally heavy, with rainfall already in excess of 2" in some areas.

As the main body of the system finally moves through Friday, expcect areas of locally heavy rainfall.

It's not often you see a swath of rainfall forecast at 2" over much of central and southern Minnesota. Check out the graphic from NWS below.

NWS forecasts for ranfall through Saturday
(click for bigger image)

As storms "train" or move over the same areas dumping heavy rainfall, it appears local areas will receive enough rain to meet or exceed flash flood guidance.

Here are some links to keep track of the rain.

-Twin cities radar loop
-Twin Cities storm total rainfall loop
-Radar loop with lightning strikes
-NWS latest watches and warnings
-Storm Prediction Center

PH

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Forecast: Heavy rain possible overnight

Posted at 8:40 AM on June 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

Update 3pm: Wave #1 slides just mostly south of the metro. The larger system is still on track and should send a second wave our way tonight into Friday.

Stay tuned.

PH

Time to clean the weather lab gutters.

Radars are lighting up around the Upper Midwest today as a potent wave of low pressure takes aim. This system has all the ingredients to produce widespread and potentially heavy rainfall totals over the next 48 hours.

NAM model 84 hour rainfall paints 2" to 4"+ over southern Minnesota.

Call it a gully washer, frog strangler or goose drowner...the idea is the same. Sustained tropical downpours are likely to produce some muti-inch rainfall totals by Friday afternoon.

NWS and forecast modles cranking out a good 2" soaking.

Various forecast models are cranking out rainfall totals for southern and central Minnesota into Wisconsin by the inch. The general trend is for 1" to 3" rainfall totals by the weekend. Some of the more aggressive forecasts produce a street flooding 5" by Saturday evening.

NOAA rainfall forecast puts a 5" bull's eye over the metro by Sunday morning.

The set up is nearly ideal. A slow moving warm front and low pressure combo will set up shop over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Waves of instability will ride along the front, producing batches of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Tropical moisture with dew points in the 60s to 70 will surge north from Iowa and trigger heavy downpours.

The biggest threat for severe weather appears to be just south of the metro, from southern Minnesota into Iowa. Still any of the stronger storms that do form will contain vivid lightning and booming thunder. High winds are not out of the question with the stronger storms over southern Minnesota overnight.

Rain will increase in the metro this afternoon and tonight. The so called "flash flood guidance" issued by NWS hydrologists indicates that 2.5 inches of rain could cause flash flooding on smaller rivers and streams in southern Minnesota. It may take closer to 3.5" in central Minnesota. Flash flood watches and warnings may be issued if rainfall totals approach these limits.

Keep an eye out for heavy rain and the potential for localized flooding over the next 48 hours.

PH

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Wet June may end drought in some areas

Posted at 8:50 AM on June 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Rainfall

"It takes a flood to end a drought."

That's one of the many weather related quotes attributed to Mark Twain.

We may not get a flood, but the end of the drought may be in sight for parts of the Upper Midwest.

An active jet stream overhead is dealing frequent low pressure systems to Minnesota this month. After a mostly dry but windy Wednesday, the next system is already taking aim.

This one could be the wettest of the bunch.

Take a look at some of the various rainfall projections for the next few days.

Models and NWS hinting at another 1" rainfall Thursday into Friday.
(click for bigger image)

GFS model paints rainfall "bull's eye" right over southern Minnesota Friday.

NOAA 5-day rainfall total hints at multi inch rainfall totals over parts of Minnesota.

The forecast models we use are notoriously aggressive with summertime, convective rainfall forecasts, but the set up the next few days may lead to some impressive rainfall totals in some areas. Anytime you get dew points surging toward the tropical 70 degree mark, you can get tropical and potentially flooding downpours.

Check out the anticipated surge in dew points in the metro by Friday.

Some forecast models push dew points to the sticky, tropical 70 degree mark Friday.

With that kind of tropical moisture around, the next wave of rain may feature a little more thunder. There's no shortage of moisture for crops this year. SPC keeps the main risk of severe weather just south and west.

Enjoy our windy Wednesday. A pop up shower is not out of the question today, especially in the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will be the best day of the week to get the lawn under control before another good soaking rain rolls in.

PH

Flash flood hits Duluth

Posted at 12:20 AM on May 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Rainfall

Powerful thunderstorms overnight dumped torrential rains in and near Duluth.

The storms produced heavy tropical downpours in a swath from near Foley and Milaca to Moose Lake to Duluth, Hermantown and near Two Harbors and Silver Bay. As much as 4 inches of rain has been reported at Hermantown, with 3.9" at Duluth International Airport.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

1132 PM HEAVY RAIN DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
05/23/2010 M3.91 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
STORM TOTAL

Duluth's 3.9" rainfall total Sunday night smashes the old daily record rainfall of 1.28" set in 1964.

Duluth radar loop shows multi inch rainfall in a band from south of Lake Mille Lacs to near Duluth and the North Shore.

The storms formed along a stalled frontal boundary dividing a sticky tropical air mass in southern Minnesota from much cooler and drier air in northwest Minnesota.

Here's the first warning from the Duluth NWS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CARLTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DULUTH...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 1128 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND RADAR
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.
NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE HERMANTOWN AND OVER THE
HILL IN PARTS OF DULUTH. 3.9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED SO
FAR AT THE DULUTH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND RUNOFF
FROM THESE AS WELL AS FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SAINT LOUIS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED WATER OVER PARTS OF MAPLE
GROVE AND UGSTAD ROADS IN HERMANTOWN.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHYTE...
WALES...SILVER BAY...MURPHY CITY...FINLAND...BRIMSON AND
ALGER...DULUTH...MOOSE LAKE...SAWYER...ADOLPH...AND HERMANTOWN.

While the flash flood is dangerous, especially at night, there is a silver lining in that rainfall comes in an area of severe drought.

Mark Twain is reported to have said; "It takes a flood to end a drought." It looks like the City of Duluth and parts of northeast Minnesota just got one.

PH

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Epic Nashville floods

Posted at 5:10 PM on May 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Record, Severe weather

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows 15"+ record rainfall in the Nashville area over the weekend.

If they had an arc in Nashville it would be overflowing.

A record 2 day deluge has already broken the monthly record for the wettest May ever in Nashville. Saturday brought 6.32" of rain to Nashville. That's the 3rd wettest day in Nashville history. Then came Sunday. An incredible 7.25" rained down on the city. That smashed the record for the wettest day in Nashville history.

Two day rainfall totals are incredibly over 17" in some areas! Think about that for a moment. The wettest MONTH n Minnesota is Jun with an average of just over 4" of rain for the entire month. Areas around Nashville got 17" in TWO DAYS.

The pictures are amazing. Cars stacked up like toys. Entire buildings floating down new rivers like arcs. At least 19 people are dead, and local officials have declared a civil emergency for fear the even though the rain has stopped, the still raging floodwaters will claim more lives.

PH

NWS lowers river crest forecasts in St. Paul, Stillwater

Posted at 2:51 PM on March 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River

It appears our extended string of dry weather is having a benefit. River leves are dropping like a rock.

Hydrologists at Twin Cities NWS lowered the forecast crest for the Mississippi River at St. Paul today. The previous crest forecast had the river topping out at 19.5 feet later this week. The current forecast has the river staying pretty much where it sits today; at 18.47 feet. That's about a foot lower than previous forecasts.

The trend of lower river level forecasts also extends to the Minnesota and St. Criox Rivers.

The lower crest forecasts are good news for those who have been fighting back rising rivers. It could potentially mean an earlier reopening of the St. Croix Lift Bridge in Stillwater which remains closed and affects so many commuters between Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Wit no major rain or snow in the forecast, it appear we are on the verge of turning the corner on the 2010 flood season. The forecast maps continue the trend of manly dry and warm weather in the coming weeks. If that trend continues, we'll be talking more about grass fires in the coming week than floods.

PH

March 2010: Lamb rules

Posted at 8:35 AM on March 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Snow

What a month.

March came in like a lamb this year. To the delight of winter weary Minnesotans, it turns out the March lion is AWOL in 2010.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities are running 8.9 degrees avove average through the first 23 days this month. The mercury has touched 60 degrees 4 days this month, and 22 of the 23 days have featured above average temps.

The rapid snowmelt has been remarkable this month. We've gone form over 2 feet of snow on the ground in southwest and western Minnesota to bare ground in under two weeks.

Check out this GOES visible satellite loop from March 1st to March 19th. The pictures are taken daily at 2pm. Note the clouds and rain from the 7th to the 16th. The rain and warm temps decimated the deep snow cover, and sent it all running into area rivers causing flooding. The Twin Cities NWS has a nice feature story on just how quickly the snow melted this month.

GOES visible loop shows rapid snowmelt this March in the Upper Midwest.

After our brief cool down the next few days, it appears temperatures are set to soar again in early April. We should se the season's first 70s next week.

Enjoy!

PH

Flood Update: Glass half full?

Posted at 5:00 PM on March 23, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

Things are looking up in flood ravaged Minnesota these days.

Even with high water now and some crests still to come, many area rivers have passed crest levels and are beginning to fall at a good clip. No doubt the continued 12 day (mostly) dry weather pattern is helping accelerate falling river levels.

Here's a look at some good signs where rivers have crested and are dropping fast.

As the bubble of high water continues to roll down the Minnesota and Mississippi through the Twin Cities, the main areas of impact this week are along the St. Criox at Stillwater and along the Mississippi and Minnesota in the Twin Cities.

Fortunately the weather will cooperate and if current flood protection and forecasts hold, we may dodge what could have been a much bigger flood bullet in 2010.

PH

Perfect timing: Dry weather pattern prevents flood catastrophe

Posted at 8:19 AM on March 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The Crow River in Delano rises just below the bridge deck on Bridge Street in Downtown Delano Saturday. (Photo courtesy Twin Cities NWS)

Better lucky than good.

The dry weather pattern of the past 11 days has likely prevented what could have been a major flood catastrophe on many area rivers. We've had no significant rain or snow in the Upper Midwest since March 11th. Those 11 dry days come at a critical time when rising rivers were most vulnerable to even more rapid rises due to rainfall super charging river levels.

The weather maps look favorable for our mostly dry pattern to continue for about another 10 days. It appears there is a chance for a significant rain event along about April 2nd or 3rd. By then, river levels should have fallen enough that a good shot of rain may not create too much in the way of additional flood woes.

CPC 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook favors continued dryness for the Upper Midwest.

If we had received heavy rain over the past 10 days, we might be fighting all time record high levels on most area rivers today, instead of top 10 floods of record.

After the perfect storm of winter snow, spring rain and record warmth that caused our floods this spring, we can be thankful that the weather pattern shifted into dryness during this critical 20 day stretch.

PH

Flood focus turns toward Twin Cities

Posted at 3:44 PM on March 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The Red River has reached crest at Fargo. So far, so good. Things seem to be holding well and barring a major failure in flood protection. Vigilance is still required on the Red, but it's looking like Fargo may escape widespread major damage again this year.

The Crow has crested in Delano. The St. Croix is forecast to crest just above flood stage this week in Stillwater, and hopefully will not reach major flood stage.

Now, as all the water from the Crow, Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers converge on the Twin Cities, the flood focus turns to the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers in the Twin Cities area. Here are the latest forecasts for the Minnesota and Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers this week.

The 5 day precipitation outlook still looks good and dry for the Upper Midwest this week.

Let's hope things keep going as well as they have so far with the excellent lead time provided by flood forecasters at the Twin Cities NWS, and the great planning and work by local officials who have executed a solid flood protection plan in 2010.

PH

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Flooding might close Stillwater lift bridge

Posted at 2:39 PM on March 21, 2010 by Melanie Sommer
Filed under: Flooding

City officials in Stillwater, Minn., say they may have to temporarily close the lift bridge which connects that city with western Wisconsin, because of flooding on the St. Croix River. The city has erected a temporary dike to hold back the water from the St. Croix, which is expected to crest at Stillwater later in the week -- about three feet below the top of the levees.

If the bridge were closed, it would be bad news for the many commuters who use it to drive from western Wisconsin into Minnesota every day.

Crow River finally crests in Mayer

Posted at 4:15 PM on March 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Mississippi River

Better late than never.

The Crow River finally crested Saturday in Mayer. Mayer is in Carver County about 25 miles west of the Twin Cities. The river level is slowly falling in Mayer this weekend.

It appears the river topped out at a level of 16.82 feet around midnight Saturday. That marks the second highest flood of record for the Crow in Mayer, second only to the incredible 1965 flood which crested over 2 feet higher at 19.23 feet.

To get an idea of how much water is flowing down the Crow in towns like Mayer and Watertown this weekend, you can use the flow rate of about 9,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). One cubic foot is about the size of a basketball. Picture 9,000 basketballs flowing by your house every second and you get the idea.

Of all the rivers in flood this year, the south fork of the Crow has been one of the most surprising and difficult to predict. The NWS raised the crest forecast level at least twice as the river blew through those crest forecasts.

Now the focus on the Crow turns to Delano this weekend. The river is expected to crest in there Sunday at a level of 20.4 feet.

The story of the Crow does not end in Delano. It flows through Rockford and past St. Michael before spilling into the Mississippi near Dayton which is just northwest of Anoka. The Crow's payload of water then heads down the Mississippi through Minneapolis, past Fort Snelling and into St. Paul.

The story is not over this year for the little river that could.

PH

-Southern Minnesota river levels and forecasts
-Red River levels and forecasts

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Weather wanes as part of flood story

Posted at 6:30 AM on March 20, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

The tale is nearly told for how weather played a role in the floods of 2010.

First the snow. Then persistent cold to keep the snow in place this winter. Then the rain and record temperatures in March.

Most of the snow has now melted in Minnesota, and that means most of the water that was locked up in the snow pack is now working through the river systems. The damage is done so to speak.

With no major rain or snow events in sight for the next week or so, the focus and action shifts to events on the ground. Levee by levee, sand bag by sand bag, the flood story now becomes more about events on the ground than weather in the air.

The primary questions and potential areas of concern this weekend are:

-Will the dikes and levees hold on the Red River in Fargo and Morehead as the waters reach their crest?

-Will the Crow River in Delano behave and stay within the projected crest forecast?

Crow River in Mayer near final crest?

-Will changes be made to the Minnesota and Mississippi forecast crests this weekend?

-Will ice jams cause surprise areas of flooding?

NWS meteorologist Seth Binau stands near a flood gage on the Mississippi. (Photo courtesy Craig Edwards)

Meteorologists are about to step aside and let the hydrologists take over to mop up this flood season. The resilient residents and government officials in river towns are doing their part to keep the rising waters at bay.

Nature has certainly reminded us this year that winter weather and spring floods are to be respected in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Let's hope there are no more surprises in the coming days.

PH

Flood Watch: Optimism in Moorhead

Posted at 2:55 PM on March 19, 2010 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Weather Watchers

Brad Leeser lives in Moorhead. He took some photos of what's going on in his city today and sent along this update:

There is a sense here in the Fargo/Moorhead area that we are prepared. People are more calm than last year. This is probably for several reasons. First, we know we survived a crest level several feet higher than what is predicted for this year. Second, the Fargo/Moorhead area is getting pretty savvy as to how to defend the city against the Mighty Red. Third, flood preparations began several weeks ahead of the actual high water. And lastly, and perhaps this is a bit disconcerting, I have sensed a "ho-hum" attitude about the flood. In other words "Here we go again....".

Last year, I put drain plugs in my home, moved anything of value out of the basement, and took other preparations in anticipation of high water. I have done none of these things this year. Day-to-day life is not affected much for most people except that some city streets and bridges over the Red are closed and the ones that are open in the downtown areas have extremely heavy traffic as a result of those closures.

There is a sense of optimism and a sense that unless something drastic happens we will make it through this flood with flying colors. I hope so.

Looking west into Fargo at the toll bridge in North Moorhead

Usher's House restaurant on the Red River in Moorhead

Parking ramp at Moorhead Center Mall
(All photos taken by Brad Leeser)

Big Picture: Top 10 flood year on area rivers

Posted at 1:50 PM on March 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

As the potentially good news of a lower crest forecast for the Red River at Fargo sinks in Friday, a look at the big picture shows this is already an historic flood year in the Upper Midwest.

This will be the top 5 to 10 flood of record for many area rivers. Some locations, like the Crow River at Cosmos and Mayer have set the 1st or 2nd flood of record for those locations.

Here are some forecast river crests and where this year's flood level falls historically.

Crow River at Mayer:
Friday's level: 16.52' = 2nd highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 19.23 ft on 04/13/1965
(2) 16.50 ft on 04/14/2001
(3) 16.48 ft on 04/11/1969
(4) 16.05 ft on 04/07/1997
(5) 16.00 ft on 06/23/1957
(6) 15.70 ft on 04/10/1952
(7) 13.93 ft on 05/04/1986
(8) 13.90 ft on 04/30/1975
(9) 13.76 ft on 04/05/1979
(10) 13.59 ft on 03/29/1982

Red River at Fargo:
Forecast crest 37.5' = 5th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 40.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(3) 39.57 ft on 04/17/1997
(4) 37.80 ft on 04/11/1882
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(6) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.65 ft on 04/16/1952

Minnesota River at Shakopee:
Forecast crest: 717.3' = 7th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 721.80 ft on 04/15/1965
(2) 719.70 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 719.29 ft on 06/25/1993
(4) 718.10 ft on 04/19/2001
(5) 717.86 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 717.40 ft on 04/29/2001
(7) 716.20 ft on 04/16/1952
(8) 714.38 ft on 04/14/1951
(9) 709.70 ft on 06/22/2001
(10) 708.40 ft on 04/07/1998

Mississippi River at St. Paul:
Forecast crest: 19.8' = 7th highest flood of record.

Historical Crests
(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(9) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(10) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957

So why was this a record flood year for so many locations?

-Deep snowpack exceeded 2 feet in much of west and southwest Minnesota. Anywhere from 4" to 8" of water content was stored in the snow pack. This area is the headwaters for the Red, Minnesota and Crow Rivers. Both the Crow and Minnesota feed the Mississippi before they reach St. Paul.

February 18th DNR snow cover analysis shows deep snow in western and southern Minnesota.

-The rainfall in early March exceed half an inch in many location. Rainfall is the quickest way to melt snow cover, and trigger rapid runoff into area watersheds.

-Finally record and near record temperatures some 20 degrees above average kicked in to continue rapid snow melt. The warm weather in the past 10 days or so sealed the deal for area rivers. The Twin Cities is running a full 9.9 degrees above average for March through the first 18 days.

PH

Flood Watch: Kayaking in Mankato

Posted at 10:02 AM on March 19, 2010 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Weather Watchers

Michelle Parsneau lives about five blocks from the Minnesota River in downtown Mankato. She'll be giving us occasional updates on what's going on in her community. All photos taken by Michelle.

The weather continued to be gorgeous and sunny. This is quite odd. Two weeks ago, the snow was up to my knees in the front yard, with piles of snow on every street corner, making crossing the street a bit hazardous. Now, there is no snow at all in my yard. It is just gone. The ground is actually more solid and less squishy than yesterday. Looking out my front door, nothing looks at all out of the ordinary. There are no visible preparations for flooding, or anything of the sort in my neighborhood. I continue to receive e-mails from the city regarding trail closures, county road closures, and procedures that officials are following as they watch both the river and the flood wall.

Kayakers in the Minnesota River at Mankato.

At about 5:30 yesterday, I headed downtown to the river to see if anything was happening there. I saw much more foot traffic than usual, as people want to see what is going on. As I checked out the brand new Riverfront Park, I was lucky enough to see people kayaking down the fast moving river. They came out at the closed canoe access point, so I asked them a few questions. They kayak regularly in the area, and were obviously excited about getting the opportunity to experience the river at this height and speed. They had a really hard time gauging how fast they were traveling, compared to normal conditions, saying that it had to be at least 15 miles per hour. They had been to Land of Memories Park, earlier in the day, kayaking above trails, campsites, and recreation areas that are usually on solid ground. The park has been fully closed, and they said it was quite the experience to be kayaking there.

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U of M Extension answers flood questions online, on phone

Posted at 11:46 PM on March 18, 2010 by Melanie Sommer
Filed under: Flooding

The University of Minnesota Extension says it's set up a system of online and phone answer resources for people who have flood-related questions.

The extension's flood impact Web site has information on flood response, safety and cleanup questions -- like how to clean out a basement that's been flooded, and how to deal with septic systems.

You can also get information over the phone on the extension's flood information line (1-800-232-9077) and the answer line (1-800-854-1678).

Update: NWS raises St. Paul crest forecast again

Posted at 4:13 PM on March 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Mississippi River

Hydrologists at the River Forecast Center in the Twin Cities have raised the forecast crest for the Mississippi again. Today's latest updated raised the expected crest of the Mississippi River in St. Paul next Wednesday to 19.8 feet. That's an increase of 1.8 feet from Wednesday's forecast.

Latest NWS hydrograph for the Mississippi in St. Paul raises the forecast crest to 19.8 feet next week.

If the river reaches 19.8 feet as forecast, that would be the 7th highest flood of record for the Mississippi in St. Paul.

Historical Crests: Mississippi River at St. Paul

(1) 26.01 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 24.52 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.37 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 22.02 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.15 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 18.79 ft on 04/16/1951
(9) 16.68 ft on 06/29/1957
(10) 16.10 ft on 05/16/1986

The surprising rises on the Crow River may be one reasons NWS is boosting the crest at St. Paul. Stay tuned into early next week as we watch to see just how high the mighty Mississippi will go.

PH

Flood Watch: Ready in Moorhead

Posted at 10:07 AM on March 18, 2010 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Weather Watchers

Steve Schaefer lives in Moorhead on the river. After last year's flood, he and his family made some changes to lower their risk of flooding.

Thanks to the work we did over last summer (filling in our walk-out basement, new landscaping), we're not worrying too much about our home. Our new landscaping takes us above 40' of protection. That means that as long as there are no changes to the crest level, we should not have to sandbag this year. I may need to put down some plastic to cover the fresh soil so it doesn't erode when the water gets up to it, but that will be far easier than building a dike. Hallelujah!

The line at the bottom of this stake in Steve's yard shows the 40' protection level.

The flood fight is much more organized and coordinated this year. Part of that is due to a predicted crest about 3 feet lower than last year, but the other part is that we've all been anticipating this flood since early in the winter. Both Moorhead and Fargo have done a great job with the upgrades that have been made for city-wide flood protection and the decision by each city to start pre-filling sandbags three weeks ago has paid off immensely.

Living through the floods definitely gives one a great respect for the power of nature and how we have to live in tune with our environment. During the flood last year, there were extreme moments of concern, but the camaraderie of the community effort is something that I will value and remember always. It would not have been possible to successfully protect our home and our community without the incredible effort of everyone in the community as well as all the volunteers from outside Fargo-Moorhead who gave time and effort to help us out.

Crow River defies expected crest, still rising

Posted at 8:48 AM on March 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding

It may not be the mighty Mississippi or the raging Red, but the "little river that could" will not be denied this year.

Of all the stories during this week of flood watching, the south fork of Crow River is the most interesting to me. Earlier this week the river was forecast to crest Wednesday at 15 feet in Mayer. That forecast has been updated as the week progressed, but the Crow had other ideas. As of Thursday morning the Crow River still has not crested at Mayer, and stands at a level of 16.03 feet.

NWS forecasts updated the still rising Crow River at Mayer again this morning.

Last night's forecast for the Crow at Mayer suggested a crest of 15.9 feet.

This marks the 5th highest flood of record on the Crow at Mayer so far, just shy of the 16.05 ft on 04/07/1997. Here are the top 10 floods of record on the Crow at Mayer.

Historical Crests: Crow River at Mayer

(1) 19.23 ft on 04/13/1965
(2) 16.50 ft on 04/14/2001
(3) 16.48 ft on 04/11/1969
(4) 16.05 ft on 04/07/1997
(5) 16.02 ft on 3/18/2010** (so far)
(6) 16.00 ft on 06/23/1957
(7) 15.70 ft on 04/10/1952
(8) 13.93 ft on 05/04/1986
(9) 13.90 ft on 04/30/1975
(10) 13.76 ft on 04/05/1979

Deep snowpack feeds the Crow:

The main reason the Crow is defying forecasters this year lies in the deep snowpack that has bracketed the river's watershed this year. Some of the heaviest snow bands have fallen in the upper reaches of the south fork of the Crow River near Cosmos this winter. Looking at today's NOHRSC image below, you can still see some snow cover southeast of Willmar and east of Olivia in the upper Crow river watershed which includes Buffalo Creek.

The good news is the Crow will likely begin to fall in Mayer today or tomorrow. It remains to be seen how well the river behaves downstream in Watertown, Delano and Rockford.

PH

Flood Watch: Quiet in Mankato

Posted at 5:10 PM on March 17, 2010 by Molly Bloom (3 Comments)
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River, Weather Watchers

Michelle Parsneau lives about five blocks from the Minnesota River in downtown Mankato. She'll be giving us occasional updates on what's going on in her community.

The mood in the neighborhood seems good. Everyone is happy about the gorgeous sunshine, while I personally can't help but wonder if it is going to accelerate ice melting, adding to the river. My husband, a professor at Minnesota State, reports that some students who commute from out of town have told him that due to possible flooding, they're not sure if they will be able to make it to class in the days ahead. But, even at that, he says that not too many students have said anything.

At this point, I really think people either don't think the river will get that high, or assume the flood wall will prevent any problems. I know that in the last year there have been a few news items about national evaluations of the wall and maintenance costs, so I think people feel secure that the wall has been properly cared for and that they will be safe.

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Browns Valley staying dry despite leaky diversion channel

Posted at 4:34 PM on March 17, 2010 by Melanie Sommer
Filed under: Flooding, Minnesota River

Browns Valley, on Minnesota's western border, was flooded badly in 2007, and has been working on a diversion project since then. Floodwaters again threatened the city near the South Dakota border this week, but things would have been a lot worse without a diversion channel that was built to control the level of the Little Minnesota River.

Homes and businesses in the city stayed dry this time, although an ice jam forced water to blow a large hole to the diversion channel. Water washed away about 1,800 square feet of an embankment and about 25 feet of roadway. You can read more about the town's fight against the floodwaters, and listen to an interview with Browns Valley Mayor Jeff Backer, here.

St. Paul forecast up again: Good news for Stillwater & St. Cloud

Posted at 4:15 PM on March 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Mississippi River

NWS hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul adds another half foot to the crest forecast early next week.

Hydrologists in the North Central River Forecast Center and the Twin Cities NWS office have tacked on another half foot to the crest forecast for the Mississippi River in St. Paul today. The updated forecast is a significant change. If the river crests at 18 feet as expected it should put Harriet Island under water next week and may make Warner Road impassable.

Flood Impacts: Mississippi River at St. Paul

18.0 Warner Road may become impassable due to high water.
17.5 Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
17.0 Secondary flood walls are deployed at St Paul Airport.
14.0 Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to experience flooding.

Good News for Stillwater & St. Cloud:

There are some good news stories in the overall flood scenario. Both the Mississippi River in St. Cloud and the St. Croix River in Stillwater are expected to crest below flood stage this spring.

PH

Flood Watch: Getting to work in Fargo

Posted at 10:33 AM on March 17, 2010 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Weather Watchers

Mark Olson is a brand consultant living in Fargo. He'll be updating us on what's happening in his community. As he came home to Fargo last night from Moorhead he found the south side of the city bustling with activity.

South of 52nd Avenue there was lots of activity all along the river. Clay dikes being built where possible. Sandbag dikes where heavy equipment can't access.

Lots of people building sandbag dikes in the South Rivershore Drive neighborhood. National Guard out in full force there. Humvee and a trooper at every entrance point.

Lots of heavy trucks hauling clay to areas back in the river bends. It appears the city has everything under control and is confidently progressing as planned.

It is definitely reassuring knowing that the folks who are planning and executing the plan have such good and recent experience.

Although, for everyone's sake, I hope the crest at holds at 38 feet or less. All the folks who fought to protect their homes just a year ago deserve a break.

Mark took these photos on his way to work this morning:
The intersection of 14th Ave. and Elm St. North in Fargo

Mickelson Field, home to Little League and fastpitch softball games.

The clay dike built on 2nd Street to protect city hall.

Mild St. Patty's Day: Rapid snowmelt in Red River basin

Posted at 8:41 AM on March 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding, Red River

An unusually strong and mild ridge of high pressure over the Upper Midwest will produce unseasonably mild temperatures today. It will also melt snow rapidly in still snow covered areas that feed into the Minnesota and Red River watersheds.

Abundant sunshine and snow free ground should cause temps to soar into the low 60s this afternoon in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. That's about 20 degrees above average for St. Patty's Day.

In the west still there is still enough snow cover to keep temperatures in check. Still, highs should reach the 50s today. That will be plenty warm enough to melt more snow, and send some of the 2 to 6 inches of water trapped in snow cover into area rivers.

Latest snow water equivalent analysis shows snow has melted in eastern Minnesota. Anywhere from 2" to as much as 6" (dark blue) of water still lies in the snow cover in western Minnesota and the Eastern Dakotas.

The mild temperatures will linger through tomorrow before Friday's cold front returns temperatures to near average as we head into the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 30s and lows below freezing this weekend.

PH

St Paul: Major flooding now expected

Posted at 11:14 PM on March 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Mississippi River

Flood forecasters at the Twin Cities NWS are burning the midnight oil these days. New flood forecasts late Tuesday evening predict that the Mississippi River in St. Paul will now reach major flood stage and now see a potential crest near 17 feet by next Tuesday.

Previous forecasts had only moderate flooding expected. The new higher forecast could once again put Harriet Island at risk for being inundated by floodwaters early next week.

Flood Impacts: Mississippi River at St. Paul

18.0 Warner Road may become impassable due to high water.
17.5 Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
17.0 Secondary flood walls are deployed at St Paul Airport.
14.0 Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to experience flooding.

Forecasters also raised the crest forecast for the south fork of the Crow River in Mayer late Tuesday. The river surged more than 3 feet since Monday, and is now expected to crest higher than the previous 15 foot forecast at 15.5 feet.

Flood Impacts: Crow River near Mayer

16.5 Water encroaching on State Highway 25 between State Highway 7 and Carver County Road 122.

16.0 Yale Avenue between Carver County Road 30 and 78th Street is closed. 62nd Street west of County Road 33 to Yancy Avenue is closed.

14.5 The bridge on 84th Street is closed. 42nd Street between Tacoma Avenue and County Road 123 is closed. Carver County road 23 just north of Mayer and Carver County Road 27 in Watertown is closed. Carver County Road 32 from County Road 135 to Vega Avenue is closed.

13.5 Vega Avenue between Carver County Road 32 and 86th Street is closed. Carver County Road 30 west of Yancy Avenue to McLeod County line is closed.

12.0 Mill Avenue is closed north of Watertown from Carver County Road 10 to the Wright County line. Yancy Avenue between Carver County Road 30 and 78th Street is closed. Vega Avenue between Carver County Road 33 and 94th Street is closed. The intersection of Union Avenue and 82nd Street is closed.

11.0 Carver County Road 123 north of State Highway 7 to 42nd Street near Watertown is closed.

Crow exceeds flood of record at Cosmos:

One reason the Crow is rising quickly down stream in Mayer, Watertown and Delano this week is that the river has set a new record flood level upstream in Cosmos. According to the NWS hydrograph below, the Crow hit 17.1 feet on Monday exceeding the previous flood of record of 16.9 feet.

Rivers are rising rapidly and forecasts are changing frequently as conditions change. Get the latest river levels and forecast below.

-Twin Cities NWS (southern Minnesota River levels and forecasts)
-Grand Forks NWS (Red River area forecasts)

PH

Update: Crow River in Mayer to crest Wednesday

Posted at 4:23 PM on March 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding

NWS Hydrograph at the south fork of the Crow River in Mayer. The river had been forecast to rise about a foot in the past 24 hours, but has risen nearly 3 feet instead.

Hydrologists at the North Central River Forecast Office in Chanhassen have moved up the crest forecast for the Crow River in Mayer. Monday's forecast called for the Crow to crest at 15 feet on Thursday. Today, the NWS moved that crest up to Wednesday, while keeping the overall crest level to 15 feet.

Monday's 60 degree weather is the likely culprit. The warm temperatures continued the rapid melting of snow in the upper reaches of the Crow, and sent that runoff rapidly into the river watershed.

Onlookers watch the rising water in the south fork of the Crow River Monday afternoon in Mayer.(Photo by Paul Huttner)

The river level was at 11.25 feet in Mayer Monday afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon the river rose nearly 3 feet to 14.02 feet. Residents in Mayer should expect to see the river reach its crest of around 15 feet by as early as 7am Wednesday.

PH

Flood Watch: On the ground in Fargo

Posted at 3:45 PM on March 16, 2010 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Flooding, Red River, Weather Watchers

Mark Olson is a brand consultant living in Fargo. He'll be updating us on what's happening in his community.

My immediate neighborhood is totally calm. No evidence of an impending flood. The threat is weakened greatly by the recent completion of a flood wall and levee that protects the VA Hospital and surrounding neighborhoods.

Immediately south of my home, Elm Street has been closed. It is the lowest street in the city and always the first to close. Adjacent to it, El Zagal golf course is a natural bowl which will fill despite the earthen levee. Mobile pumps already positioned to keep lift stations functional. No sandbagging preparation at the El Zagal Temple, site of a near dike failure last year.

A short distance north of my home, in the Woodcrest neighborhood, no one is sandbagging, but the city has surveyed and marked elevations in everyone's backyard, indicated with stakes and orange flags. This will provide the key reference point for sandbag dikes, should they be needed. Boxed rolls of poly (plastic), for the waterproof barrier under and outside a sandbag dike, have been dropped off on the driveway of each house that is on the river.

A sole National Guard Humvee was parked at an entry point to the North Oaks neighborhood. It appeared they were getting their bearings.

Near my office downtown, the clay dike that is built to protect city hall has risen from nothing on Sunday morning to what appears to be the height needed to safeguard everything if the crest is 38 feet.

The AT&T building has secured their facility with a low sandbag dike, as they did last year. I'm guessing that this must be a strategic communications link that can't go down without larger repercussions.

The local newspaper's web site - InForum - has relayed city and county officials urgent call for sandbaggers in Fargo and Cass County. Schools are dismissing students who volunteer to help.

Plenty of information is available online with daily flood briefing being broadcast on television and radio. No sense of panic whatsoever in my view. Calm confidence in the face of a crest that at 38 feet would be the fourth highest in history, but nothing compared to last year. A sense that it may crest lower than predicted with reports that it has already crested downstream in Wahpeton.

I'm heading out south of Moorhead to help a buddy who lost his fight with the flood last year. I'm sure that he is preparing again to at least meet a 38 foot crest or higher.

Red River crest pushed back to Sunday

Posted at 3:35 PM on March 16, 2010 by Than Tibbetts
Filed under: Flooding, Red River

It looks like residents in Fargo-Moorhead will have another day to work with in shoring up their levees.

The National Weather Service's latest outlook for the Red River has the crest coming on Sunday instead of Saturday. The river is still expected to crest at 38 feet — 20 feet above flood stage.

If that's the case, the 2010 flood could vault into the history books as one of the five highest recorded crests. Last year's crest, you'll recall, was the all-time record.

(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 40.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(3) 39.57 ft on 04/17/1997
(4) 37.80 ft on 04/11/1882
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969