Updraft Category Archive: Drought

Perfect Weekend? Fishing Opener/Mother's Day jackpot; Mosquito boom ahead?

Posted at 6:02 PM on May 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Mosquitoes

Mostly sunny & dry this weekend

Perfect timing for Minnesota anglers & moms everywhere

Resort boom? Brisk fishing opener traffic after a tough winter season?

Mosquito boom? Rains busted the drought, and may trigger a mosquito boom soon

Weather widgets - great little tools to help you visualize the weather

Check out the "YoWindow" screensaver below. Just click on the image and choose your forecast time. Kind of a neat way to visualize NWS forecast data on your desktop.

A perfect "10"

It's hard to argue that Thursday was anything short of "Springtacular".

These are the days many of us live for in Minnesota.

Yes some of us love plowing through deep snow on skis or a sled, watching the storms, or baking in summer heat at the beach or State Fair. (Did I just type that?) But if you didn't absolutely savor our sunny, slightly breezy, mild "May-Tastic" Thursday you may need to see somebody about that.

Fickle Friday:

A cool front will sweep through Minnesota Friday. The front is relatively weak, but will have enough oomph to trigger a few scattered showers and maybe a grumble of thunder around midday.

Perfect Timing: Bonus "Holiday" weekend?

Okay, so maybe Fishing Opener doesn't technically qualify as a major holiday. Tell that to the guy with the bass boat, or the resort owner on Mille Lacs.

And Mother's Day technically does qualify as a major holiday. (How did Minnesota's moms okay fishing opener weekend on Mother's Day anyway?)

As a weatherman I can tell you, you definitely can't please all of the people all of the time, but this weekend could come pretty close.

The checklist:

-We've had plenty of rain to keep farmers happy? Check.
-We should see plenty of sun for sun worshipers this weekend. Check.
-Daytime temps warm enough for fisherfolk, golfers, baseball, and mom? Double check.
-Cool enough at night for the bonfire crew? Yep.
-No rain...on a weekend? Roger that.
-Winds light enough to enjoy your favorite lake? Yupper.

Wow, did I miss anything? That about covers it.

High pressure will linger both days this weekend. Look for plenty of sun, light west winds, and daytime temps int he 60s Saturday to lower 70s Sunday. Nights in the 40s north to 50 south. It doesn't get much better in Minnesota on a weekend in May.

Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society
Minnesota State Attorney General Walter Mondale and Minnesota Governor Karl Rolvaag display their catch on opening day of the 1963 Minnesota fishing season.

Fishing Opener weather: More than you ever wanted to know

This will go down as one of the better fishing openers in Minnesota. 75% of Minnesota Fishing Openers are rain free, but the weather is highly variable for Fishing Opener weekend.

After a tough winter for some resorts with the lack of snow, the great weekend weather will be a welcome bonus.

Here's the scoop on Minnesota's Fishing Opener weather from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

2012 Minnesota Fishing Opener Weather

Minnesota's Fishing Opener weather is typified by partly cloudy to cloudy skies, morning temperatures in the low 40's, and afternoon temperatures climbing to near 70. Three out of four years are free of measurable precipitation. A trace of snow has been reported in northern Minnesota on at least five of the last 64 fishing openers. On at least four occasions, some lakes were still frozen for the opener. Generally there is enough wind to be felt on the face, maybe enough to 'fly' a flag. Weather on Minnesota fishing opener dates is highly variable. 64 years of fishing opener weather data are summarized here to offer a glimpse of what is 'typical' and what is 'extreme'.

Statewide, less than one year in five offers totally clear skies. The average amount of cloudiness lies near that fuzzy boundary between 'partly cloudy' and 'cloudy', but over half of the dates were classified as cloudy.

Average daily wind speeds generally range between 8 and 15 miles per hour. This range can is described as 'wind felt on face ...' to '... wind extends light flag'. The predominant wind direction is split fairly evenly between blowing from the northwest, south, and east.

Drought Dissapears:

I posted extensively on the drought Thursday morning, but here's another great way to visualize the disappearing drought in Minnesota.

What a difference a week can make!

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor (USDA)

Mosquito Boom Ahead?

You knew it was coming sooner or later.

Last night on my weather lab bike ride, I rode through clouds of young mosquitoes just waiting to grow big enough to attack the nearest unsuspecting jogger or dog walker.

The extra rain this month has filled mosquito breeding areas, and the little buggers are hatching and ready to rumble. Look for a big uptick in mosquito number in the next week, and brush up on your swatting technique.

Want some good news? We're not defenseless!

The Metropolitan Mosquito Control District is always busy checking (even small) breeding grounds in your neighborhood.

Here's a great tool to check and see what's being treated in your neighborhood.

Mosquito breeding areas near White Bear Lake.
Source: Metropolitan Mosquito Control District

Site specifc info from MMCD on a pond next to a park in White Bear Lake
Source: Metropolitan Mosquito Control District

You can do your part by making sure pots, birdbaths or anything else that can collect water and serve as breeding grounds are emptied of standing water every week.

Make it a great Friday!

PH

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Busted: Drought gone in most of Minnesota; Best day of spring?

Posted at 9:00 AM on May 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Drought

96.12% of Minnesota in drought 3 months ago

63.44% of MN in drought 2 weeks ago

60% of MN in drought last week

10% of Minnesota in drought today (Today's release of U.S. Drought Monitor)

70s and sunny today - Best day of spring?

Perfect weekend? Fishing opener and Mother's Day look spectacular

Sun watch - AR1476 pointed right at earth may unleash solar flares

New NWS website design coming soon! Preview here.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Breaking News: The drought is (basically) over in Minnesota

Okay, so you didn't need me to tell you that right? You can see your yard and garden has recovered. Lawns are lush green. Trees look better than they have in years. Standing water in your farm field last week. Creeks roared back to life.

Our early May deluge has basically ended the drought in (most of) Minnesota for now. 3" to 8" of rain across Minnesota in the past two weeks has soaked into thirsty soils.

Today's U.S. Drought Monitor release confirms what we've been seeing with our own eyes.

As of today, only 10% of Minnesota is now listed as in "drought."

Source: USDA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The two stubborn areas that are still listed in moderate drought are along I-90 centered on Fairmont, and along the North Shore. The only area still categorized under "Severe Drought" is a small section of the North Shore basically between Tofte and Grand Marais.

97.26% of Minnesota is still listed as "abnormally dry" so we'll need to see at least average rainfall in the coming weeks to keep from slipping back into drought.

Considering that 96.12% of Minnesota was in moderate to severe drought just 3 months ago, the drop to just 10% this week is dramatic and welcome.

As I posted earlier this week, this week's Minnesota Crop Reports shows 89% of Minnesota topsoil has "adequate to surplus" moisture in the top 6" of soil.

Source: MN Crop Report

Hooray!

Springtacular: Could this be the best day of spring 2012?

If you took a poll asking Minnesotans what is the "perfect spring day" today might be the answer.

Bright sun and blue sky rule the day today. A dewy morning gives way to a mild afternoon with temps shooting into the 70s in most of Minnesota. Light southerly winds will gradually build into the 5-15 mph range this afternoon.

Golf? Fore! Sailing? Oh yeah. Outdoor lunch? Table please!

This is about as good as it gets in Minnesota in springtime.

One word of weather advice.

Enjoy!

But don't forget the sunscreen. The sun today is as high in the sky (and powerful) as it is on July 31st! We're now getting more than 4 times the incoming solar energy we saw in late December.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Fishing opener and Mother's Day: The perfect weekend?

It appears for once the weather stars have aligned for the perfect spring weekend, and the timing couldn't be better.

A passing cool front will bring a chance for (mostly light) rain Friday.

Then, a weak bubble of high pressure drifts over Minnesota this weekend.

High pressure means sinking air. And sinking air is generally dry and sunny.

Saturday: Minnesota Fishing Opener:

Mostly sunny and cool 40s in the morning. High in the 60s by afternoon. Wind light west 5-10 mph. Steady barometer.

(Keep in mind that lake temps are still in the "hypothermically cold" 50s in most of Minnesota. Have a great time on the lake this weekend, but know that an unexpected plunge into the chilled waters can quickly render you numb. Be careful out there!)

Sunday: Mother's Day

Mostly sunny skies and milder! High near 74 metro, upper 60s to near 70 north.

Wind west 5-10 mph. Steady barometer.

Click on the image below for a bigger view.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Check out the detailed weekend forecast "meteogram" on the NWS new website design here.

Sun Watch: Giant sunspot AR 1476 facing "earthward" could unleash massive solar flares

We'll have to keep an eye on the sun for the next few days. The mega sunspot AR 1476 is the biggest in years, and it's now pointed directly at earth.

Source: NASA

There are signs it may unleash a solar flare at any time, and it could be a big one.

Details from spaceweather.com.

SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: Huge sunspot AR1476 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing something even stronger. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy for X-class flares, the most powerful kind. Earth is entering the line of fire as the sunspot rotates across the face of the sun.

Make it a great day!

PH

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Time to eat into the moisture deficit

Posted at 3:41 PM on April 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards (0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Rainfall, Storms, Thunderstorms

Since late July Mother Nature has cheated Minnesota on moisture. We could hardly buy a snow storm this past winter. But perhaps we are on the brink of cutting into the deficit in southern Minnesota. Moisture hasn't been as scarce this month.

The precipitation totals from far northwest to south range from about an inch and a half to slightly more than three inches. A beneficial precipitation event occurred in Itasca and St. Louis Counties as a combination of snow and rain fell in mid April -- yet lake levels remain low.

Precipitation image for April 16th provide by NOAA

Some locations in central and southern Minnesota tallied more than a half of an inch of moisture in the past week. Here's a look at the moisture departure from early August to late April:

Source: Minnesota Climatological Working Group

Warmer temperatures are seen for the middle of the work week and those temps, along with increasing dew points, will create an environment favorable for thunderstorms. The first round of storms enters the weather scene on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night.

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms, producing hail and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

There was enough cloud cover extending into the afternoon hours to hold the temperatures in the lower 60s in east central Minnesota.

As anticipated, NOAA released an update of the temperature outlook for the month of May today.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

A warm front may set up over central Minnesota on Wednesday. Warm fronts are known for spawning some good rainfall amounts, particularly overnight. We'll see.

--Craig Edwards

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Snowy pattern ahead? March/April critical for 2012 drought prospects

Posted at 6:12 PM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, La Nina, Spring 2012, Winter 2011-12

Week of February 20th GFS hinting at possible snow systems for Minnesota

1.51" GFS liquid output for MSP week of Feb 20th

14.9" season snowfall so far at MSP

16.5" average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season at MSP

96.2% of Minnesota now in "moderate" to "severe" drought!

March snowfall potential critical for easing "hydrologic" drought

April rainfall potential critical for easing "agricultural" drought

Snowy pattern change ahead?

It's too early to be definitive on this, but there are some encouraging signs for Minnesotans who want snow. Our desert dry winter doldrums may be about the end.

The upper air pattern is showing signs of becoming more "chaotic" in the next two weeks. Translation? We may finally get some snow storms passing in or near Minnesota.

Much of the USA has been mired in a persistent west-northwest upper air flow pattern this winter. This has brought mild air, and also little moisture.

The GFS model is advertising a more west-southwest flow starting the week of February 20th. This could steer a series of Pacific storms into the Midwest, and some of them may actually dip into the southern Plains and gulp down some significant moisture before dumping it as snowfall on Minnesota.

GFS hints at a possible "Panhandle Hook" snow storm around February 21st?

While it's still way too early to credibly support these numbers, The 12Z GFS cranked out 1.5" of "liquid" precip the week of February 20th from 2 different storm systems. If that verified and fell as all snow, it could add up to 10" to 15"+ somewhere in Minnesota that week.

We'll see. Trying to credibly nail storm systems that far in advance is futile. But the take away is this; The overall upper air pattern is changing and there could be a growing chance of snowfall the week of February 20th.

Stay tuned!

2012: Year of the Texas-sized "mega-drought" in Minnesota?

As we look ahead toward spring, Minnesota's growing drought looms as the biggest weather story and concern of 2012.

A full 96.2% of Minnesota is classified in "moderate" or "severe" drought in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.

The water tap shut off late last summer in Minnesota, and last fall was the driest on record for many locations. Soils heading into the freeze were powder dry, and will remain that way into the spring thaw.

Weather patterns the rest of this winter into this spring will be critical in determining if this will become one of the worst droughts in Minnesota history, or a significant drought that is eased by above average spring precipitation.

Here are the variable at play the next 3 months.

Late February & March:

The second half of February and the month of March may determine how critical Minnesota's "hydrologic" drought is going into the summer of 2012.

We're living through the 2nd lowest snowfall season to date for much of southern Minnesota. Snowfall at MSP Airport is only 14.9" so far, that's a good month in most years and a good storm last year!

Northern Minnesota has seen better snowfall totals, but most areas are still way below average for the season.

The average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season is 16.5" in the metro and southern Minnesota. We'll need average to much above average snowfall between now and April to provide enough snow melt runoff to feed Minnesota's rivers & lakes, which are at very low levels.

This runoff is critical for easing the "hydrologic" component of drought (rivers, ponds, lakes etc.) but doesn't help much with the "agricultural" or "soils" component since the ground is still frozen and most runoff from snow melt won't soak in.

That's where April weather comes in to play.

April & May:

Average rainfall for April is about 2.3" for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. We will need every drop this spring and significantly more if we are going to stave off a major drought in 2012.

The ground thaws in April. April rainfall soaks into soils, and will recharge them for the growing season. We'll need above average rainfall in April & May to ease drought conditions in Minnesota. Average rainfall won't do this year. A good 4" to 8" of spring rains is what we need to prevent serious drought as we head into the summer of 2012.

Will fading La Nina help?

CPC is out today with news that La Nina is close to being history in the tropical Pacific.

This could possibly be good news for a wetter spring in Minnesota. If "ENSO neutral" conditions evolve we could see a return to more "normal" spring weather patterns in the Midwest.

At this point (in a drought) any pattern change is likely to lead to wetter conditions.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.

Stay tuned!

Arctic air pushes south:

A few flurries may accompany the arctic front surging south into early Friday. Get ready for a bracing day Friday, with wind chills at or below zero in most of Minnesota!

Chicago lake effect snow blitz Friday!

As arctic air hits the still relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, a rare lake effect snow burst will hit the Windy City and northwest Indiana Friday into Saturday.

While lake effect is common in northwest Indianan and Michigan, low level wind trajectories have to be just right to get lake effect snow in Chicago. Friday into early Saturday brings the perfect NNE wind trajectory that flows down the entire fetch of Lake Michigan and right into the Chicago metro area.

At least 6" could fall in Chicago, and this set up look so good that I wouldn't be shocked to see some bands of 6" to 12" in and close to Chicago.

At least somebody in the Midwest is getting snow Friday!

PH

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Warmer in the Cities

Posted at 4:15 PM on October 21, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Drought, Microclimates, Urban Heat Island

The urban heat island is well observed in the climate records of metropolitan areas. If you reside in downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul you experienced a minimum temperature that was near or even above the thawing point of 32 degrees this morning. The International Airport recorded a low of 32 degrees, while Saint Anthony checked in with 34 degrees. All official temperatures are taken about five feet above ground level.

Meanwhile, it was a different story away from the urban region. Here is a sample of some other minimum temperatures recorded this morning: Chanhassen, Crystal, and Buffalo all at 27 degrees, Further away from downtown, it was a very nippy 23 degrees at Waseca, 25 at St. Cloud and one of the coldest readings of 21 degrees in Princeton. Temperatures in the middle twenties were observed in western Wisconsin as well, with a frosty 25 degrees in Eau Claire.

Obviously the the exact location of the thermometer has some bearing on the temperature, particularly when winds are calm and the sky is clear. But the reality is, we were all under the umbrella of the same air mass. When meterorologists predict lows from the middle 20s to the middle 30s, they are not hedging. They are bracketing the temperatures that can be different in a small radius.

Click here to explore the overnight low temperatures.

Peter Synder of the University of Minnesota has embarked on additional research to capture the magnitude of the urban heat island in the Twin Cities. He is in particular need for observers within the Interstate 494/694 beltway. If you would be able to assist Peter and his work, he can be contacted at pksynder@umn.edu. Here's the website for more information; http://www.islands.umn.edu/

I spoke with Greg Spoden at the Minnesota State Climate Office this afternoon and he related how some of his research has shown that with a slight north wind the urban heat island can expand to Farmington. Invaluable research here, especially when scientists are trying to resolve the human impact on global warming.

Greg also confirmed that the latest seasonal outlook for this winter, issued by NOAA yesterday, is using the new normals when defining regions that favor above or below normal temperatures.

Another nice day is in store for Saturday before the opportunity for moisture arrives on Saturday night. It felt quite comfortable in the sunshine this afternoon. We topped out at 60 degrees at the Twin Cities international Airport.

Often meteorologists refer to the prospect of showers as the "threat of rain". When you have been as dry as some locations in Minnesota, you call it an opportunity for rain.

Here's a look at how sparse rainfall has been since late July. As Greg noted, southern Minnesota is seeing moisture shortages that are extremely rare. Being in the zero percentile is not where you'd like to be if you're looking for soil moisture recharge for next year's growing season.

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This afternoon's weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. Hopefully we can play out a win-win in the weather world, with precipitation falling overnight on Saturday.

Pagami Fire "burn scar" visible from space TX: Dust Bowl

Posted at 5:55 PM on October 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought

Our "October Reality Check" continues Wednesday!

Pagami Creek Fire "Burn Scar" visible from space!

The so called "burn scar" from the massive Pagami Creek Fire is clearly visible form NASA's Landsat-5 satellite in orbit high above earth. Here is the image from NASA's Earth Observatory.
(Click to enlarge!)

Nearly two months after being ignited by lightning, the Pagami Creek Fire in northern Minnesota was nearly contained when Landsat-5 acquired this image on October 10, 2011. Since August 18, the fire has been burning in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in Superior National Forest. As of October 11, the fire had burned 92,682 acres and was 82 percent contained. Apart from a faint hint of smoke, there is little sign of current fire activity in the image. The burned forest, however, is charcoal-colored, in contrast to the green forest around it.

Reference
InciWeb. (2011, October 11). Pagami Creek Fire. Accessed October 11, 2011.
NASA Earth Observatory image created by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using Landsat data provided by the United States Geological Survey. Caption by Holli Riebeek.

Instrument:
Landsat 5 - TM

For those that know the BWCA you can see the fire burned from near Lake One on the west to Lake Kawasachong on the east, and from the southern half of Lake Insula on the north to Lake Isabella on the south. That's some pretty prime BWCA real estate.

Massive Texas Dust storm brings back "Dust Bowl" imagery:

Is this Phoenix or Texas?

The worst drought in Texas history means plenty of loose dry dusty soil around. Now the wind is sending it airborne.

The story from AP via Yahoo.

"LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) -- Winds gusting at more than 70 mph churned up a dust storm that roiled through the Texas South Plains during the Monday afternoon commute.

No injuries were reported from the dust cloud reminiscent of those shown in Dust Bowl photos from the late 1930s."

Photo By The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Walt Nett

New NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellite may help refine forecasts

September: 8th warmest on record globally

From NOAA:

Global temperatures in September were eighth warmest on record
Annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent second smallest ever recorded
October 13, 2011

The Earth experienced its eighth warmest September since record keeping began in 1880. The annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent was reached on September 9 and ranked as the second smallest extent since satellite records began in 1979.

Global Temperature Highlights: September

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for September was the eighth warmest on record at 59.95˚F (15.53˚C), which is 0.95˚F (0.53˚C) above the 20th century average of 59.0˚F (15.0˚C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.20˚F (0.11˚C).

•Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.57˚F (0.87˚C) above the 20th century average of 53.6˚F (12.0˚C), making this the fourth warmest September on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.43˚F (0.24˚C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Europe, northern and western Africa, western Russia, the western and northeastern United States, Canada, and Mexico. Cooler-than-average regions included much of eastern Asia, and part of the central United States.

•The September global ocean surface temperature was 0.72˚F (0.40˚C) above the 20th century average of 61.1˚F (16.2˚C), making it the 14th warmest September on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07˚F (0.04˚C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central and northwest Pacific Ocean and within about the 30°N-40°N latitude belt across the Atlantic.

•The United Kingdom marked its warmest September since 2006 and sixth warmest in the last 100 years, at 2.7˚F (1.5˚C) above the 1971-2000 average.

•Spain had its warmest September since 1990 and fifth warmest for the past 50 years, at 3.2˚F (1.8˚C) above the 1971-2000 average.
Global Temperature Highlights: Year to date

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January - September period was 0.94˚F (0.52˚C) above the 20th century average of 57.5˚F (14.1˚C), making it the 11th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.18˚F (0.10˚C).

•The January - September worldwide land surface temperature was 1.44˚F (0.80˚C) above the 20th century average -- the seventh warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.36˚F (0.20˚C). The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74˚F (0.41˚C) above the 20th century average and was the 12th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07˚F (0.04˚C).

•La Niña conditions strengthened during September. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to gradually strengthen further and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011/12.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

•Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum extent on September 9 at 1.67 million square miles (4.33 million square km), marking the second smallest extent on record. In September 2007, the sea ice extent dipped to 1.61 million square miles (4.17 million square km). According to the University of Washington's Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume, which depends on ice thickness and extent, dropped to 960 cubic miles (4,000 cubic km) on September 10, the smallest volume on record.

PH

3rd warmest October so far! Growing drought covers 74% of MN!

Posted at 5:23 PM on October 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Fall, Fall color

Passengers soaking up October warmth aboard The Lady of the Lake on Lake Minnetonka Friday.

Welcome to "June-Tober."

We're living charmed weather lives in Minnesota these days!

Our string of consecutive 80 degree days now stands at 6....as thermometers blew past past the 80 degree mark again Friday.

That makes this the 3rd warmest start to October on record so far, according to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office.

"Hi Paul,

-Pete"

With Ocotber 2011 only .4 degree off the pace...this is basically right there with the warmest October starts on record! We can't feel the difference between 67.0 and 67.4 degrees!

Temperatures Friday look more like July than October!

Temps +13 degrees vs. average so far this October!

3rd warmest start to October on record so far!
(just 0.4 degree away from 1st place)

6 consecutive days at or above 80 this October

2nd highest number of October 80s on record

8days at or above 80 in October 1953

58 years since MSP has logged this many 80 degree days in October!

43 average low temp at MSP Friday

65 actual low temp at MSP Friday

63 average high temp at MSP Friday

"Cooler Front" this weekend:

The 80s will fade this weekend as a (gentle for October) cool front slides through. Temps will still run about 10 degrees above average, with highs in the 70s south and 60s north this weekend.

There will be a few spotty showers, but overall precip looks to be on the light side, generally under .25" in most areas. We may settle some of the wind-whipped dust this weekend, but the rain won't be putting out any fires or putting a dent in the drought.

Growing Drought!

It's been another warm, windy, dry week with no rainfall in Minnesota, and the drought expanding.

A full 74% of Minnesota is now listed as "abnormally dry" or in some stage of drought on the week's U.S. Drought Monitor. That compares to only 4% of Minnesota in or near drought 3 months ago!

Rainfall deficits now exceed 4" in much of Minnesota since August 1st. The overall weather pattern looks wetter in the next two weeks, but rainfall totals will likely not be enough to end the drought in Minnesota.

Fall colors peaking this weekend!

The gusty & dusty weather pattern late last week tooka few leaves off the trees, but the colors are still spectacular and at or near the elusive "peak" this weekend in Minnesota.

Here are some fall color scenes I captured Friday from around the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven in the west metro. Enjoy, and have a great weekend!

PH

Parkway invites

My friend Pav's Hunter sailboat & Whaler ride out gusty winds Friday.

Road sign provides a not so subtle seasonal metaphor?

Wind, waves & colors on St. Louis Bay of Lake Minnetonka.

Classic fall street scene

Leafy carpet

Is climate change affecting fall color timing?

The story from AP:

"Climate change scientists focus on fall foliage shifts

- In Vermont, state foresters studying sugar maples at the Proctor Maple Research Center in Underhill found that the growing season ended later than the statistical average in seven out of the last 10 years. And then there are regular folks like 83-year-old Nancy Aldrich at Polly's Pancake Parlor in New Hampshire, who has been keeping her own records since 1975. Her numbers show that color change is a moving target, and she's not willing to go out on a limb in terms of making any declarations."

Weather perfection? Drought expands in Minnesota

Posted at 8:40 AM on September 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought

79 degreee high at MSP Wednesday

74 average high today

80 forecast high today

+1.8 degrees so far at MSP in September

.02" rainfall at MSP so far in September

-.74" below average so far for the month

San Diego with lakes:

Welcome to San Diego, with lakes (and loons!). Our dry, sunny stable weather pattern is what you might expect from southern California in late summer or early fall. With highs near 80, lows in the upper 50s and dew points in the 50s, this is what many consider "ideal" weather for human comfort. No AC or heat bills to worry about through this weekend.

Just add water: Drought expanding in Minnesota:

Ther latest U.S. Drought Monitor is out today and it shows areas of dryness and drought expanding in Minnesota this week.

Nearly 42% of Minnesota is now categorized as "abnormally dry" with 4% of that area in "moderate drought."

Two main areas of drought are emerging: One in the north from Ely and the BWCAW to the central North Shore region. The second in southern Minnesota along the Minnesota River Valley and creeping intot he southwest metro.

I can assure you that the weather lab in the west metro is indeed "abnormally dry" for the first time in nearly a year.

Details from the Minnesota Climate Working Group:

Dry Late-Summer 2011 (updated September 7, 2011)

Overview:

"Portions of St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties are designated as undergoing Moderate drought. Stream flow in those areas are low due to the lingering impact of precipitation deficits during the 2010 growing season and spotty rainfall this spring and summer.

Portions of southern Minnesota are depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor as Abnormally Dry. Much of this region reported significant late-summer precipitation shortfalls (maps below). Precipitation totals for the past six weeks range between one and two inches in many areas, a negative departure from the long-term six-week average of three to four inches. When compared with the same six-week period in the historical database, the 2011 precipitation totals rank among the lowest on record."

PH

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Crop Report: 30% topsoil moisture short; Crop stress visible

Posted at 4:20 PM on September 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crops, Drought

Tuesday's Minnesota Crop Report opened some eyes.

Fully 30% of topsoil moisture in Minnesota is now listed as "short or very short." That's up from about 2% at the start of August.

The latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Dry and warm weather during August has steadily pulled mositure form Minnesota soils. You may notice your garden needs water lately, so do many fileds in Minnesota, Some crops are showing signs of drought stress.

"Average temperatures were 3.4° above normal
this past week and continued a pattern of above
average temperatures and below average
precipitation for several consecutive weeks.
Precipitation ranged from .89 inch in
southeastern areas to .27 inch in west central
areas. Some reporters noted that crops are
beginning to show signs of stress from lack of
moisture. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 7
percent very short, 23 percent short, 65 percent
adequate, and 5 percent surplus, a slight decline
from the previous week. Statewide, 5.6 days
were rated suitable for fieldwork."

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota confirms the trends.

With a full week of above average temperatures and little or no rainfall ahead, expect the numbers to trend even drier by next week.

There's going to be a lot more yellow on the drought map as September rolls on.

PH

Longest "storm free" weather in 10 months; TX fires from space

Posted at 8:49 AM on September 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought

Painting Weather:

This might be the week to get that outdoor project done.

After a constant barrage of potent stormy months, it appears Minnesota is at the start of the longest "storm free" stretch in 10 months.

10 dry days in a row ahead? (Sep 5th-Sep 14th?)

10 months since we've had a dry spell that long (Oct 28th-Nov 9th 2010)

81 degrees in the Twin Cities by Saturday?

+5 to +10 degrees above average in Minnesota by this weekend

73/53 average high and low temps at MSP this weekend

Locked In:

Our weather pattern is locked in as we push through the first full week of September. A stable ridge of high pressure is parked over the north central USA. The main storm steering Polar Front Jet Stream has been displaced unusually far north into Canada.

This means a series of dry, sunny and increasingly mild days ahead for Minnesota.

Look for highs in the 70s this week, warming to near 80 in southern Minnesota by Friday and this weekend.

Drought Creeps Back:

Don't look now, but drought is starting to creep back into Minnesota, You can feel the ground getting hard & crunchy underfoot these days.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor lists nearly 25% of Minnesota as "abnormally dry." For the first time in nearly a year, parts of Minnesota are now under drought. This includes northeast Minnesota and southern Minnesota from Mankato to the I-90 corridor

3.25% of Minnesota is now categorized as "moderate drought" ... mainly running from near Ely to the North Shore near Silver Bay.

Expect these numbers to grow in the next 2 weeks as the dry pattern expands.

Texas Fires: Climate change in action?

You know it's bad when the smoke plumes are visible from space.

Check out the GOES 1km visible image from Labor Day over eastern Texas.

You can see multiple smoke plumes fanning southward. Gusty north winds on the backside of Tropical Storm Lee fanned the flames Sunday & Monday.

Here's another, closer look from NASA.

The numbers are staggering.

1,000+ homes destroyed by fire

9.6% under extreme drought on January 1st, 2011

It's been a bad year in Texas. The worst single drought year in Texas history has claimed livestock, crops and now millions of acres of trees are literally going up in flames.

Jeff Masters has some more numbers:

Texas' unprecedented heat

"As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history."

These kinds of dramatic landscape changes can have effects that last for decades.

As moisture is literally sucked from root systems, trees and other vegetation is going up in flames.

Smoke plumes rise above the Texas sky like monsters in a horror film.

Think I'm being overly dramatic? Check out this YouTube video from a family in Texas driving toward a monster smoke plume.

We may be witnessing the process of "desertification" in Texas. We may be watching climate change in progress right before our eyes.

PH

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A tale of two lakes

Posted at 5:35 PM on May 16, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Lakes

They say all weather is local.

That's been especially true lately for two metro lakes on different sides of town.

White Bear Lake and Minnetonka are both destination lakes for boaters, sailors and homeowners. But when it comes to lake water levels, two large lakes in the same metropolitan area are far apart these days.

Lake Minnetonka: "Big Water"

Map of Lake Minnetonka.
(Click to enlarge images)

Sprawling Lake Minnetonka brackets the southwest side of the metro. Some data from Hennepin County Library.

LAKE MINNETONKA - FACTS AND STATISTICS

NAME:

931.43 feet above sea level modern high water level, Sept. 12, 1951 Geo5020--Lake Minnetonka Information

The huge lake is really many different lakes biologically speaking. I've heard Freshwater Society founder DR. Richard Gray say the Lower Lake, the Upper Lake and Halstead's Bay for example all have different water clarity and composition.

The outlet for Lake Minnetonka is Minnehaha Creek which drains from Gray's Bay on the northeast side of the lake.

Minnetonka running high.

High water at Deephaven boat docks Monday. (Photo by Luke Huttner)

As I touched on this morning, high water warnings are in effect for Lake Minnetonka this spring. You must operate with minimum wake anywhere inside of 600 feet from shore to prevent erosion this spring.

High Water Emergency Declared on Lake Minnetonka
4/15/2011

"The Lake Minnetonka Conservation District (LMCD) has issued a high water declaration on Lake Minnetonka. According to LMCD Code Section 3.021, "High Water", the Executive Director shall make a "High Water Declaration" when the Lake elevation is at or above 930.0 feet for a period of eight consecutive days, or has reached or exceeded 930.25 feet. On Monday, April 11th, the Lake's elevation reached 930.29 feet. For this reason, the LMCD has initiated a "High Water Declaration", effective immediately."

http://minnetonka.waterpatrol.org/highwater.htm

Highest in 5 years!

As of Monday Lake Minnetonka is at the highest water level in 5 years! Some numbers:

930.17' Monday's lake level (above mean sea level)

+1.5 feet higher than last November

2006 last time Minnetonka was this high. (May 16th, 2006)

Boat ramps underwater. (Photo by Luke Huttner)

Minnehaha Creek is raging thanks to a discharge of 250 CFS from Gray's Bay Dam on Lake Minnetonka. The swift flow in Minnehaha Creek is considered dangerous for travel by canoe.

White Bear Lake: Northeast metro jewel

White Bear Lake in fall color.

White Bear Lake lies nestled between "desirable" residential communities in the northeast metro.

The lake is home to an active sailing club, beautiful lakefront homes, and provides numerous opportunities for boaters. White Bear also has some interesting history!

Map of White Bear Lake.

White Bear Lake History :
(From the White Bear Lake Conservation District)

Ice was harvested from the lake to build the Ice Castles for the Winter Carnival years ago. Many feared that the lake would have little to no water left from the hundreds of thousands blocks of ice removed from the lake. They had nothing to fear; the lake always replenished itself.

About White Bear Lake: (Info from White Bear Lake Conservation District)

Background

Because of its large surface area and its small tributary watershed, lake levels in White Bear Lake fluctuate. Fluctuations of up to 2½ feet in one year and up to 7 feet over the lake's history have been observed. The impact of lake level changes is magnified because small changes in vertical elevation result in large changes in the horizontal extent of the lakeshore. When lake level changes are extreme, many problems occur. During high water levels, flooding and shoreline erosion increase; and during low water levels, docks and piers are high and dry, navigation is hindered, and recreation is diminished."

Playing catch up:

Things were looking pretty grim last October on White Bear. The lake hit an all time record low water level on October 19th, 4 feet below average and over 6 feet bellow the all time high water level on White Bear!

Again some numbers:

919.43' record low level on White Bear last October

920.05' level as of April 19, 2011

7" rise in White Bear water level since last fall

923.42' "Average" level for White Bear

926.7' Highest level ever recorded on White Bear lake (June 20, 1943)

Slow to recover:

Even with 86" of snow last winter, White Bear Lake has been slow to recover.

While Lake Minnetonka is up about 1.5 feet from last fall, White Bear only managed to rise about 7 inches. The biggest reason is that White Bear has a much smaller watershed than Minnetonka.

Prolonged drought in the east metro hit White Bear hard over the past few years.

Let's hope the generous rains continue to fall on White Bear, so the lake can recover to normal levels in the coming years.

PH

Rain, drought & "Epic Flood" all at once in Midwest

Posted at 9:26 AM on May 5, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Mississippi River, Rainfall

It's been an interesting start to the weather of 2011 to say the least.

First, record snows last winter. Next, top 5 floods this spring in the Upper Midwest. Then, the biggest tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

And now, there are literally floods and drought going on at the same time.

Soggy Minnesota:

First the rain. The latest rainfall system overnight and early Thursday has dropped another .25" to .50" in and around the metro. My La Crosse Technology digital weather station recorded .36" of rainfall in Deephaven in the west metro as of Thursday morning.

To the west an arc of heavier, more persistent rains has dropped anywhere from .50" to 1" from near Redwood Falls (.52") through Hector, Litchfield (1.06") and St. Cloud. (.54")

NEXRAD storm total rainfall shows heavist precip west of metro.

Spongy soils:

Soil moisture was already high going into last fall. This spring has been wet enough in Minnesota that we're now dealing with a surplus soil moisture in most of the state, and a very late spring planting season.

Check out these numbers form this week's Minnesota Crop Report.

1% of corn planted so far this year

46% of corn planted by this time (5 year average)

84% of corn planted by this time last year

1.3 days suitable for field work last week

In addition 44% of Minnesota's topsoil moisture is listed as "surplus."

Add it all up and you have one of the wettest and latest spring planting seasons in recent memory, and nearly a full month behind last year!

Further south: "Epic Flood" makes rivers flow backwards!

All that water from snowmelt had to go somewhere, and the swollen Mississippi is bursting to the south. Combine the runoff from Minnesota's snowmelt with torrential spring rains and you have a 500 year flood.

Cairo, Illinois is in the unfortunate geographic position of lying at the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The result is blown dikes to save the town, and floodwaters so high that tributaries flowing into these rivers are actually flowing backwards!

All Eyes on the Mississippi River: MyFoxMEMPHIS.com

Meanwhile, drought creeps north

During an April trip to Kansas, I was stunned to see firsthand just how quickly the landscape changed from flood to drought.

Rivers as close as Des Moines and southern Iowa are running low, and a full fledged drought is expanding north from Texas and Oklahoma into Kansas and Nebraska.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the expanding drought to the south, even as the Mississippi reaches all time flood crests in the southern states.

Adios La Nina!

And should we say good riddance? Today's latest CPC ENSO discussion shows La Nina has faded, and ENSO neutral conditions are returning.

This may be one reason why our cool La Nina spring weather is beginning to turn for the milder. It also may portend a more active hurricane season with more U.S. landfalls this year.

SST's actually above normal now in the eastern Pacific.

Our weather improves:

Rain has tapered in many areas today as the weather system pulls out. Look for a few scattered showers to linger today.

High pressure will bring a return to sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s Friday!

PH

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1st 60 today, 70 Saturday! Double crest, drought develops south

Posted at 9:29 AM on April 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Crow River, Drought, Flooding, La Nina, Mississippi River, Red River, Winter/spring 2011

Lots to talk about today...here are a few headlines:

-First 60 degree reading of 2011 likely today in the metro

-"Green wave" reaches Kansas City, moving north

-Green shoots at weather lab

Now for some detail...

First 60 of 2011 today in the metro:

Where were you on November 10th?

That's the last time the mercury topped 60 degrees in the metro!

November 2010 featured a quick transition from late season warmth to sustained winter. (Click all images to enlarge)

It looks like we'll finally get there again today, making this the warmest day in nearly 5 months. Look for a few bank thermometers to flash as high as 64 degrees in the metro and much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Twins home opener: Sunny & 60s?

It appears the "weather lucky" Twins have won the opening day weather lottery at Target Field for the second straight year. A potential weather system is steering south Friday, and the result should favor sunshine and afternoon temps in the low 60s. First pitch 3:10pm Friday.

Play ball!

70 by Saturday?

As a deep low pressure trof spins up in the west, a southerly flow of mild air will persist and intensify through Saturday. The result should be the first 70 balmy degree temps of 2011 Saturday afternoon.

Sunday rain & thunder?

The western low will move east by Sunday into the Upper Midwest. It's early, but it looks like a band of showers and possible T-Storms will develop Sunday with the system. We could see a decent shot of rain (and possibly some thunder) in much of Minnesota Sunday, especially late.

Modles suggesting soaking rains possible Sunday.

Weekend severe outbreak south?

Further south, the atmosphere seems primed for a potential severe outbreak Saturday and especially Sunday.

Here's the verbage from SPC...

...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING REMAINS VERY LIKELY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

-"2nd crest" for rivers this weekend:

The much talked about "2nd crest" appears headed for southern Minnesota rivers this weekend. The crest forecasts are lower than anticipated a few days ago, and many rivers look to crest near or below the first crest observed in late March.

The Crow River @ Delano is forecast to crest at 19' this weekend. That's about 1 foot below the crest of 20' on 3/28/2011, which was the 4th highest flood of record for the Crow @ Delano.

The Mississippi River @ St. Paul is forecast to crest at 19.2' Monday. That's just above the 19.01' level recorded on 3/29/2011 which was the 8th highest flood of record @ St. Paul.

The flood story of 2011 will be remembered for the "double crest." The fact that rivers spread the runoff from near record winter snows over two crests two weeks apart may have saved many communities form record floods this year.

The cold snap in late March and early April, and lighter than average precipitation was indeed the "best case scenario" for mitigating flood levels in southern Minnesota rivers in the "Floods of 2011."

Red River: Not so lucky?

A higher, single crest appears likely on the Red River this year. The Red is rising steadily these days, and the latest forecast brings the river to 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday.

If the Red reaches 39.5' it will be the 3rd highest flood of record for the Red @ Fargo, behind only 2009 (40.84') and 1997 (39.72').

-Minnehaha Creek: Fastest flow in nearly 5 years!

I took a look at Minnehaha Creek Wednesday and saw it running swiftly through Minnetonka Mills. A further check of data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) shows the discharge from the Gray's Bay Dam is running at 250 CFS. That's the highest level since June 8, 2006, or nearly 5 years!

MCWD says flows above 150 CFS are "dangerous" for canoeing down Minnehaha Creek. 250 CFS has made Minnehaha Creek a raging little river! It's worth checking out if you can as it flows through the southwest metro communities into Minneapolis. A trip to Minnehaha Falls may make for some magnificent viewing in the next few days!

-Developing Midwest Drought:

The Weather Lab took a few days off and moved south last weekend. In my drive to Lawrence Kansas, I was surprised to see the rapid transition from rivers in flood in Minnesota to very low rivers levels with sand bars in Iowa.

Smoke filled the air Saturday as I observed numerous grass fires from southern Minnesota all the way into Missouri and Kansas.

Smoke filled skies and grass fires in Iowa & Missouri Saturday.

The latest drought monitor shows a growing drought threat in much of the Southern Plains, expanding into the Midwest.

Midwest drought can be common in La Nina years, and it's a developing trend we'll have to watch as we move toward summer.

-"Green Wave" reaches Kansas City:

I'll have more on this in coming days, but I wanted to mention that I observed the green wave heading north! Phenologists refer to the leading edge of the springtime green up as the so called "green wave" as it moves north each spring.

Grass is green, and leaves are bursting out on trees near and north of Kansas City now and the "wave" is moving north.

Flowering trees on the KU Campus in Lawrence, Kansas Monday.

I have heard that the green wave moves north at anywhere from 12 to 16 miles per day on average. It won't be long with temps in the 60s and 70s until we see trees and shrubs begin to burst out in southern Minnesota!

-Green "shoots" at Weather Lab:

The weather lab slopes north so we are usually late bloomers here. But I did observe tulips and daffodil shoots coming up today. A sure sign of spring at the Weather Lab, and a sure sign of hope for us all after a real Minnesota Winter!

Enjoy the warm up!

PH

Longest dry spell in 30 years, rain returns

Posted at 5:18 PM on October 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Fall, Weekend

Welcome to Minnesota, land of extreme weather. This is the place where weather extremes shift from record floods to record dryness in a month.

Friday was the 27th consecutive day without measureable rainfall in the Twin Cities. That's the longest dry spell in in the metro 30 years. The longest dry spell in 30 years!

The 27 day drought marks the 8th longest dry stretch on record in the Twin Cities since 1871. The last time we had this many dry days in a row was April & May 1980. The longest dry spell on record was 51 days spanning 1943-44. Here are the details from the Twin Cities NWS.

Warm too:

Not only is October 2010 bone dry, temperatures are running a full 6°F above average as well. Even as the weather turns (significantly) colder next week, we're going to finish the month above average. It's just a question of how far above average. October marks the 7th month of the past 8 going back to March that temperatures have been above average in Minnesota.

The image below shows mean atmospheric thickness patterns at 500mb (18,000 feet) over the northern hemisphere during the past 30 days. Above average thickness (ridging) in the upper atmosphere over Minnesota has lead to our Mediterranean climate over the past month.

Rain on the way:

The timing could be better, but this weekend marks the beginning of a change to a wetter and colder weather pattern for Minnesota. It looks like our dry spell will come to and end Saturday. Low pressure tracking through Iowa will push rain showers north into Minnesota Saturday and Sunday. The first wave could arrive Saturday morning.

I don't think the whole weekend will be a wash out, but expect occasional showers both days. Rainfall amounts look light, with most areas picking up between .25" and .50" this weekend.

Stronger system late Monday?

All signs point to a stronger low pressure storm moving into the Upper Midwest late Monday and Tuesday. This could be our first classic fall storm, with a big rain shield spreading in from west to east later on Monday and lingering through Tuesday. There will be a lot of wind with this one...these big "mid-latitude cyclones" pack a punch if they get wound up. And this one looks like it may do just that.

The latest model runs hint that we may catch a break in the clouds early Monday, and that combines with a stiff southerly wind ahead of the low may boost temps into the 60s to near 70 in parts on Minnesota Monday.

Once the rain arrives, temps will fall into the 50s and 40s. It looks like the next system may be warm enough for all rain.

This system looks to bring a good widespread soaking rain to much of the Upper Midwest. Many locations could see rainfall of 1"+ by Tuesday night.

Season's coldest air next week:

Powerful northwest winds will yank down the season's coldest air mass behind the system on Wednesday. It looks like temperatures may be cold enough for the season's first frost and 32 degree temperature at Twin Cities Airport by Thursday morning. It also looks like moisture may be gone by then...keeping the threat for the season's first snowflakes in the metro at bay.

Decent Halloween?

Early signs point to a decent day for Halloween a week from Sunday. The outlook may change...but my early look says clear to partly cloud skies and temps near 50. Not bad for the last day of October!

Hope you got some yard work done today...enjoy the pitter patter of rain that you haven't heard for a month this weekend.

PH

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Weekend Forecast: Mostly nice...a little rain & thunder

Posted at 3:35 PM on July 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Rainfall

This weekend should have a little something for everyone. A little sun, a little heat, a few showers and some thunder.

A fairly typical July weather pattern is setting up this weekend. Saturday will be the hotter more humid day. Look for plenty of increasingly hazy sun in southern Minnesota, with the best chance of scattered thunderstorms roaming the northern half of the state.

A cool front will slide slowly through northern Minnesota Saturday, and ease into the metro and southern Minnesota early Sunday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with the front to light up radars as they pass through.

Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s north and central, but may push 90 in southern Minnesota Saturday. Humidity will be on the rise as dew points climb back through the 60s.

A few of the storms could reach severe threshold this weekend, but if the timing works out right the storms will come through the highly populated metro overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. If that timing holds, the storms MAY have a litte less oomph as they come through the metro, before regenerating in southeast Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for severe storms as the front moves through this weekend.

A slight risk for severe storms favors western and northern Minnesota Saturday.

Drought eases except in Arrowhead:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the effects of recent rains in much of Minnesota. The percentage of area in Minnesota classified in drought status has dropped from 39.2% to 21.9% over the past 3 months.

Drought is still hanging on in Minnesota's Arrowhead region.

Rio Grande flood:

Tropical Depression "Two" has dumped more heavy rain on the Rio Grande watershed along the Texas Mexico border. Coming on the heels of Hurricane Alex, some areas have recieved as much as 20" of rainfall in the past two weeks. Severe flooding is occurring along both the Mexico and U.S. sides of the river.

The Rio Grande was only 3 feet deep a few weeks ago, and is now running 40 feet deep in some areas. Thsi is the highest level in 45 years, and the 3rd highest crest on the Rio Grande in history.

PH

Why your garden looks better this year

Posted at 4:45 PM on June 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Baseball, Drought, Growing season, Rainfall

Huttner Weather Lab veggie garden enjoying frequent soaking rains and warmer temps this year. (click for bigger picture)

It's been a gangbusters start this year for gardens, lawns and farm fields in (most of) the Upper Midwest. All it takes is one look at your lush green lawn or garden this year to know growing conditions are nearly ideal.

Frequent well timed rainfall and perfect temperatures are creating the perfect growing conditions. I did some checking back to last year and compared where we were a year ago. Here's what I found.

Temperature:

So far this growing season has been warmer than last year, especially in June. In the Twin Cities, temperatures in May of 2009 and 2010 ran about 1.5 warmer than average. But in the first week of June, temperatures are running 2.5 degrees above average this year. A year ago today, we began a stretch of 3 days in a row with high only in the 50s in the metro.

Bottom line? Temperatures are about 2 to 3 degrees warmer this growing season than last year to this date.

Rainfall:

The biggest difference this year is ample and well timed rainfall. Many areas have soaked up about 2 more inches of rain in May and June than last year. The rains have been frequent and well spaced, with ample sun and warmth in between. The rainfall has also been slow and soaking in nature, without the violent heavy rainfall that runs off before it can soak into the soil.

Bottom line? Rainfall has been nearly perfect so far this growing season in most areas.

Exception to the rule:

Drought still hangs tough in far eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

Next rainmaker moving in:

A fast moving jet stream overhead is dealing the next low pressure system our way. Expect another shot of rainfall Tuesday, with most areas getting another .25" soaking, with higher amounts in some areas. IT looks like the heaviest rains may fall in far southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor (where have I heard this song before?) and in Iowa. Heavy thunderstorm clusters could drop 1" to 2"+ in Iowa and Missouri with this system.

Expcet a Tuesday similar to last Saturday with periods of showrrs and maybe a rumble of thunder. It may not rain all day, but there could be several hours of showers overhead.

-Twin Cities radar loop

Baseball Weather:

It was a great weekend to dodge showers and get a little baseball in Big Lake. Thanks to the gracious hospitality of the good folks with Big Lake Baseball, all three tournaments got the games in.

My son Luke plays on a 14 year old Minnetonka travelling baseball team in the Metro Baseball League. They won all 3 games on Sunday, and managed the consolation championship after losing a close 3-2 game late Saturday in the 7th inning.

I've been meaning to post a few baseball pictures when the weather was quiet...and today's the day. We've had to dodge a few showers this season, so what's good for the garden keeps the baseball schedulers busy.

Thanks to coaches Tripp, Egan & Brennan and congrats to the boys on a good weekend of baseball!

Team smiles after a triple header sweep.

Luke smiles with some new hardware after a long day at the ball park in Big Lake.

Luke delivers a pitch at Veterans Field in Minnetonka.

Strike 3! Good call ump!

PH

Much needed rainfall

Posted at 4:40 PM on June 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Rainfall

A low pressure system sweeping through the Upper Midwest is bringing much needed rainfall to much of Minnesota.

The rain will likely come in a few waves, with breaks in between. There will be thunderstorms embedded within the overall rain areas. Some of the storms could be strong with downpours, some hail and gusty winds, but it looks like the best threat for severe weather will be in eastern South Dakota and Iowa. The system and showers should exit Minnesota by about lunch time Friday.

Most indications hint at a good soaker. Overall the forecast models cluster between .50" and as much as 1". As is typically the case with summertime convective rainfall, amounts can vary greatly over short distances.

Here are a few of the model forecast scenarios for rainfall.

NOAA rainfall forecast paints some 1" amounts in souther Minnesota.

Usually overly aggressive NAM (fantasizes?) about 2"+ rainfall for the metro.

Forecasters at the Twin Cities NWS seem to agree with your truly that this system has the potential for an inch of rain in some areas of southern Minnesota by lunchtime Friday. Here's an excerpt from the PM forecast discussion below.

PWAT VALUES SOAR TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL TONIGHT
/AROUND 1.8 INCHES/...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE ONE INCH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE UP OF MI.

Keep in mind that Eden Prairie could get and inch of rain, while someplace close by such as Edina could end up with .25" rainfall. That's the fickle nature of highly localized summertime convective rainfall.

I cut the lawn short at the weather lab Thursday. I'm betting on at least .50" to soak things up. I'll let you know how that bet worked out Friday PM.

-U.S. Nexrad selection map

Drought hangs tough:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor this week keeps much of eastern Minnesota either abnormally dry or in drought. The abnormally dry conditions expanded a bit in the metro.

Keep in mind the readings were taken before the rainfall Tuesday night. A good shot of rain the next few days could keep the drought from expanding further, or maybe take a bite out of the drought area if some places see an inch or rain or more.

PH

Update: Rain eases drought

Posted at 8:15 AM on May 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Rainfall

There's some good news for drought stricken eastern Minnesota. The drought area is shrinking.

A band of heavy rain Sunday night dumped up to 4" of rainfall from near Lake Mille Lacs to Duluth. The rainfall helped erode some of drought designated areas, and Minnesota actually saw a decrease in the percentage of the state under drought designation this week.

According to today's updated U.S. Drought Monitor, areas in Minnesota classified under moderate or severe drought dropped to 19.9% this week, down from 25.3% last week.

Drought areas shrink slightly in Minnesota this week.

Drought hangs on in Wisconsin:

Overall in the Upper Midwest, drought areas held their ground. Much of northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula is still parched, and classified as moderate or severe drought.

Ample rains and mild temperatures overall have allowed Minnesota farmers to get a jump on the 2010 crop season. The latest Minnesota Crop Report shows crop development ahead of average for this year.

Topsoil moisture is rated as adequate in 87% of Minnesota.

PH

Flash flood hits Duluth

Posted at 12:20 AM on May 24, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Flooding, Rainfall

Powerful thunderstorms overnight dumped torrential rains in and near Duluth.

The storms produced heavy tropical downpours in a swath from near Foley and Milaca to Moose Lake to Duluth, Hermantown and near Two Harbors and Silver Bay. As much as 4 inches of rain has been reported at Hermantown, with 3.9" at Duluth International Airport.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

1132 PM HEAVY RAIN DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
05/23/2010 M3.91 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
STORM TOTAL

Duluth's 3.9" rainfall total Sunday night smashes the old daily record rainfall of 1.28" set in 1964.

Duluth radar loop shows multi inch rainfall in a band from south of Lake Mille Lacs to near Duluth and the North Shore.

The storms formed along a stalled frontal boundary dividing a sticky tropical air mass in southern Minnesota from much cooler and drier air in northwest Minnesota.

Here's the first warning from the Duluth NWS:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CARLTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DULUTH...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 1128 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND RADAR
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.
NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE HERMANTOWN AND OVER THE
HILL IN PARTS OF DULUTH. 3.9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED SO
FAR AT THE DULUTH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND RUNOFF
FROM THESE AS WELL AS FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SAINT LOUIS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED WATER OVER PARTS OF MAPLE
GROVE AND UGSTAD ROADS IN HERMANTOWN.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHYTE...
WALES...SILVER BAY...MURPHY CITY...FINLAND...BRIMSON AND
ALGER...DULUTH...MOOSE LAKE...SAWYER...ADOLPH...AND HERMANTOWN.

While the flash flood is dangerous, especially at night, there is a silver lining in that rainfall comes in an area of severe drought.

Mark Twain is reported to have said; "It takes a flood to end a drought." It looks like the City of Duluth and parts of northeast Minnesota just got one.

PH

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Forecast Update: Metro snow

Posted at 2:25 PM on May 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Drought, Rainfall, Snow

NAM 84 hour snowfall forecast paints snow in the metro Friday night.

The other show is about to drop with a big thud.

The latest forecast model runs are clustering around a more consistent solution that will change a cold rain over to snow Friday night in the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. All indications are that we should be ready to see some slushy accumulations on at least lawns and grassy areas around the metro by late Friday night and Saturday morning.

A potent and unseasonable cold low pressure system is tracking east into Minnesota Friday. The system will start as rain in all but far northwest Minnesota, but as colder air works in to the system by Friday night, rain will change to snow.

I would not be shocked to see 1" to 3" of slushy wet snow accumulation in the metro by Saturday morning. The best chance for a 3" total will come in the north metro. Further north, as much as 3" to an isolated 6" could fall from Hinckley to Rice Lake as the system winds up into early Saturday.

The rain that falls will be a blessing for much of Minnesota which remains in or near drought status. Many locations may receive an inch of rainfall.

Be prepared for changing wintery weather conditions through Saturday morning.

-Twin cities radar loop

PH

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Wanted: Rain

Posted at 5:29 PM on April 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Rainfall

This week's U. S. Drought Monitor is likely to show more yellow and orange in Minnesota. For Minnesota farmers, more yellow and orange leads to less green at harvest time.

While this week's crop report shows farmers are off to the races this year, the U.S. Drought Monitor due out Thursday will likely show more of Minnesota backsliding into drought. Many locations in Minnesota are between 1 and 2 inches below average for rainfall in the past 4 weeks. Unless Minnesota gets widespread significant rainfall soon, the drought status will return for most of eastern Minnesota.

Next weather system critical:

A storm system plowing into the western USA is our next best hope for meaningful rainfall in Minnesota. Forecast models duffer on juts how much rain may fall, but there is the potential for a good soaking in some areas. If the timing is right, several Minnesota locations could see a much needed inch of rainfall. If the system fizzles, there could be many areas that see less than .25" of rain. That little rain is not enough to have a positive impact on drought stricken areas.

NAM 84 hour rainfall shows potential for soaking rains Thursday night into Friday.

If this system does not produce substantial rainfall the drought may deepen rapidly. The medium range forecast maps are hinting at only average to below average rainfall over the next two weeks. As the sun angle increases evaporation will do the same in the coming weeks.

A few bumpy storms?

As the cold front approaches late Thursday into Friday morning, there could be enough moisture and atmospheric lift to trigger a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The timing of the front appears to bring storms into the area at night, which could limit severe potential. Still the system will have to be watched closely for strong storms. Hopefully we will just get some good old fashioned thunder with heavy downpours.

Many Minnesotans will be watching the skies for rain in the next 72 hours.

PH

Drought returns to Minnesota

Posted at 4:21 PM on April 22, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Drought, Rainfall

Thursday's updated U.S. Drought Monitor confirms what many in Minnesota already knew just by looking outside. The drought is back.

According to the drought monitor, 25.2% of Minnesota is now in D1 or drought status. The area included is in eastern Minnesota, running east of a line from the northeast metro to International Falls.

Latest drought monitor shows drought expanding in Minnesota.
(click for bigger image)

The drought is even deeper in northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. About 10% of Wisconsin in now listed in severe drought. The severe drought area covers mush of northern Wisconsin and extends into Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

Weekend rain may help a little:

A low pressure system will likely bring rain to much of southern Minnesota Saturday. Some rain may reach into north central Minnesota, but it looks like the heaviest, most beneficial rains will again fall south of the drought plagued north.

NOAA rainfall forecast hints at 1" ranifall possible in southern Minnesota this weekend with lesser amounts to the north.

The bottom line is we are easing back into drought in much of Minnesota. There has been enough rain so far in the south to stave off a return to drought status, and this weekend's rain will likely help once again from the metro south. There are also signs in the medium range forecast maps that we may move into a wetter pattern the next 10-14 days, with 2 or 3 opportunities for significant rainfall as weather systems move through. This would be good news for northern Minnesota including the Iron Range, Ely and Duluth and the North Shore!

Hang in there...

PH