Updraft Category Archive: Climate

Record cold in wake of record snow; more moisture on the way

Posted at 3:06 PM on April 20, 2013 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Record, Winter 2012-13

In the wake of Thursday's record snowfall, the recipe was initiated for record cold. Light winds, clearing skies and a fresh deep snow cover allowed the mercury to tumble to record lows this morning.

Record minimums for April 20th

21 F- record at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport
Old record 26 in 1888

16 F- record at S. Cloud
Old record 20 in 1897

8 F - Ties record at Duluth set in 1926

4 F- International Falls
Old record 18 in 1966*
*Source:NWS Duluth

Sub zero readings were common in northeast Minnesota.

...MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY APRIL 20TH...

...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...MIN...
EMBARASS (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 600 AM APR 20 -14 F
BABBIT (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 700 AM APR 20 -11 F
ROBINSON (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 553 AM APR 20 -9 F
5 E SEA GULL LAKE (COOK MN) (RAWS) 604 AM APR 20 -9 F
CRANE LAKE (ST. LOUIS MN) (AWOS) 552 AM APR 20 -9 F
ELY (ST. LOUIS MN) (1457 FT)(AWOS) 612 AM APR 20 -8 F
3 NNW COTTON (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 629 AM APR 20 -7 F
5 S ELY (ST. LOUIS MN) (1455 FT)(RAWS) 604 AM APR 20 -7 F
SOUTH FORK KAWISHIWI RIVER (LAKE MN) 630 AM APR 20 -7 F
6 NW ASH LAKE (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 614 AM APR 20 -6 F
COOK (ST. LOUIS MN) (1406 FT)(AWOS) 636 AM APR 20 -6 F
3 E ORR (ST. LOUIS MN) (COOP) 553 AM APR 20 -5 F
3 WNW TWIG (ST. LOUIS MN) (MNDOT) 552 AM APR 20 -4 F
SILVER BAY (LAKE MN) (AWOS) 614 AM APR 20 -4 F
4 SW ORR (ST. LOUIS MN) (1325 FT)(RAWS) 608 AM APR 20 -3 F
4 SSE MAKINEN (ST. LOUIS MN) 648 AM APR 20 -3 F
11 SSE BRULE (BAYFIELD WI) (RAWS) 506 AM APR 20 -2 F
3 SSW CABLE (BAYFIELD WI) (WIDOT) 619 AM APR 20 -2 F

More overnight minimums can be found here.

The early afternoon visible satellite image displayed the fresh snow cover quite nicely, although the forest in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin masks the snow.

Image:NOAA

Impressive snow depths this morning were depicted by this graphic from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Note how the snowfall has rimmed the Red River.

The snow depth at Fargo this morning was 8 inches, with 2 inches on the ground in Grand Forks, ND. Compare that to the 27 inches on the flat in Duluth, and 32 inches at Babbit.

More moisture is on the way for later in the weekend and into Monday. Once again it appears that the heaviest liquid precipitation will skirt the Red River Valley.

Most of the precipitation is likely to fall as a chilly rain and a wet snow combination. I'll monitor the potential for the rain turning to all snow.

Three day precipitation potential ending at 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday.

You'll recall that LaCrosse, Wis., has already set two daily record rainfalls this month. The total precipitation (liquid content) for April at LaCrosse is already over 5 inches (5.16).

Looking for something that perhaps gives you a warm rush? How about this forecast from the National Weather Service for high temperatures next Friday.

Craig Edwards

Slow moderation continues; 40s in our future

Posted at 6:36 AM on March 26, 2013 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Winter 2012-13

Nice summary of the upcoming weather from the NWS Office in Chanhassen, MN:

The unseasonably chilly temperatures have kept the severe weather threat to a minimum in 2013! Anybody recall hearing thunder recently?

Not much to write home about when it comes to mild spring-like temperatures, but we'll be pleased to see readings in the 40s later this week.

In March of 2012, St. Cloud tallied 24 days of 40 F or better. So far, this March, the temperature has yet to reach 40 F. From January through March in 2012, St. Cloud recorded 35 days of 40 F or warmer. On January 5, 2012 the high temperature was 53 F in St. Cloud.

There has not been much of a run-up on the thermometer in 2013 over Minnesota.

Here's some wishful thinking to urge on spring:

Image:Chanhassen Arboretum/Craig Edwards

Temperatures finally climb to near normal for daytime maximums by the end of the work week. Readings in the 40s are most likely to be found over a snow-free landscape in far southern Minnesota on Thursday and Friday.

Looking ahead to the weekend, I see another cold front approaching on Saturday. This front will usher in colder air and produce the chance for rain/snow showers.

The GFS model projects a bulls-eye of precipitation around the Twin Cities on Saturday morning. Temperatures are likely to be well above freezing as the precipitation falls.

GFS model for 1 p.m. CDT Saturday. Liquid precipitation for six hour period ending at 1 p.m. CDT.
Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

NOAA's forecast of maximum temperatures for Saturday.

Local forecast highs for our neck of the woods on Saturday. Highs could be held done some if overcast skies persist.

Boy's basketball tourney snow storm myth:

The Minnesota State Climate Office staff, with some preliminary work done by meteorologist Ron Trenda, posted the most recent data on the occurrence of a snow storm during the boy's basketball tournament in Minnesota.

Here is one nugget that sums up the truth of the matter: From 1913-2012 10 years out of 100 had 4 inches or more of snow over "tourney time" (travel day plus the days of the tournament) This means that 10% of the tournaments had a "tournament snowstorm."

A complete summary of the weather over the years for the Boy's HS basketball tourney can be read here.

I'll be tracking the potential "backslide" on the temperatures that may arrive later in the weekend.

Craig Edwards

Monster Storm Sandy slow to give up the ghost

Posted at 6:44 AM on October 31, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Hurricanes, Rainfall

Hurricane hybrid Sandy continues to spiral over the Great Lakes this morning, but the punches are inflicting much less pain. Winds continue to gust above 30 mph in Michigan and down the length of Lake Michigan.

NOAA Water Vapor Satellite image 6 a.m. CDT

Pressure pattern and wind field at 6 a.m. CDT. Source: NOAA SPC
Diffuse surface pressure center of the remains of Sandy was over Lake Ontario this morning.

A clean-up of epic proportions will continue for weeks along the east coast. As the temperatures trend down during the autumn season outdoor work will become more challenging. Photo journalists have done great job painting the picture of the devastation.

Here's a screen capture of the estimated rainfall during Monday and Monday night as the center of Sandy came on shore near Ocean City, NJ.

Source: Weather Underground

If you were looking for a small silver lining in this disaster, New York caught a small break when they were spared flooding rainfall as the storm surge swamped the city.

Here's a story I archived following the October snow storm in the northeast last year. You may wish to connect the dots to Sandy. Some stories during this weeks storm referenced the Storm of 1821. In some ways, mega storms are not anything new. One meteorologist commented, "New York was due."

We'll be tracking a weather maker coming out of the Pacific Northwest later today. Seattle is under the gun for potentially flooding rains in the next 35 hours.

Seattle radar at 650 a.m. CDT Source: NOAA/Weather Underground

Five day precipitation potential. Source: NOAA/NWS

Halloween trick or treat weather is pretty much made to order. Youngsters heading out just after dark will find temperatures quite tolerable.

For those tracking the monthly temperature trend in the Twin Cities, October 2012 will be the first month with the average temperature below normal since May 2011. We'll end up a little more than one degree below normal.

Craig Edwards

Not much of a dent in the drought; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center releases winter outlook

Posted at 3:36 PM on October 18, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter

When I started my career with NOAA more than forty years ago any forecast beyond 48 hours was considered an outlook. The National Weather Service gradually extended its predictions to the current seven day forecast, with weekly and monthly outlooks, as well as seasonal outlooks. I haven't had much success myself in making predictions beyond five days.

When it comes to the drought, the trend of dry weather in our neck of the woods is no longer our friend. Recently, the GFS model has teased east central Minnesota with the potential for upwards of an inch of rain. See Paul's previous posts.

So far this October the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has tallied less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Perhaps we can accumulate a tenth of an inch of rain on the back side of this strong weather system on Friday.

Winds have gusted to near 75 mph at Pierre, South Dakota today. If this storm occurred later in November it could have delivered quite a wicked wintry punch. As it was, blowing dust reduced visibilities to below two miles in parts of Nebraska. Winds hammered the region from the Dakotas to Kansas.

NAM at 4am CDT Friday. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage

Note how the NAM forecast sweeps precipitation west and north of the Twin Cities overnight. The strong low pressure begins to fill/weaken as it spins east in the next 24 hours.

The latest drought monitor map paints the desperate need for moisture. A quarter inch of rain in west central and southwest Minnesota overnight and into Friday will likely be evaporated back to the atmosphere Saturday.

This forecast of the five day rainfall total potential into early next week shows precipitation minimums over the Twin Cities Metro area.

Source:NOAA

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Until NOAA scientists see a trend that will redirect the jet stream, the forecast of persistent below normal precipitation will continue into the winter season.

Source:NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Here is a candid comment from the discussion out of the Climate Center when delivering today's winter outlook. "This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."

Meteorological winter includes the months of December, January and February. An updated outlook will be issued in mid November. NOAA often takes a final shot at the outlook on November 30th.

Enjoy what looks to be shaping up as a rather nice autumn weekend. Mianly dry skies and early autumn-like temperatures. Good weather for outdoor cleanup.

Maximum temperature for Saturday. Source:NWS/NOAA

Looks to be a nice day for the Gopher game at Madison on Saturday.

-Craig Edwards

Saturday soaker's heaviest rains trending east? 2012 still warmest on record in USA

Posted at 7:01 AM on October 11, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

1.5" snowfall at Lake Kabetogema this morning

0730 AM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
10/06/2012 E1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1" at Culver (west of Duluth)

Sunrise at the Lake Superior Marine Museum on Duluth Harbor

.68" GFS rainfall output for MSP Airport Saturday

.77" NAM rainfall output (both models down slightly from 1"+)

2" to 4"+ possible in central Wisconsin?

Modles shifting east slightly with overall storm track

Slight risk for severe storms as far north as the Metro Saturday?

2012 warmest on record in USA through September

Source: Twin Ciities NWS

Tracking Saturday's System:

Well at least we finally have some action in the Weather Lab.

The jury is still out on exactly what kind of weather we'll see in the Twin Cities Saturday but one thing appears fairly certain. It will rain for the first time in a long while.

The last time more than even .25" of rain fall in the metro was nearly 2 months ago on August 15th when .73" temporarily greened up lawns and fields.

The maps look promising for a potent low pressure system to spin out of the southern Rockies and race for southeast Minnesota Saturday. The big question? Where will the exact track end up?

Source: NOAA/ARL

The latest model trends early Thursday suggest an eastward shift in forecast track. That could shove the heaviest rains east into Wisconsin. Some of the models are cranking out impressive multi-inch totals fom Madison to Green Bay Saturday...while the Twin Cities settles for rainfall generally under an inch. The best guess right now is between .50" and .75" for the metro. But if the model trends pushing the system east continue, those numbers may drop further.

Source: NOAA via ISU

But then again that could easily change as the models grab onto the system as it crosses from the Pacific into California today and into the more "data rich" surface network over the USA.

Source: NOAA/HPC

The good news? The potential for multi inch rainfall totals in drought plagued states from Okalahoma to Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.

Severe outbreak likely: But how far north?

This system has plenty of "dynamics" to work with to spawn severe weather Saturday.

A potent upper level jet stream, low level moisture and strong wind shear will combine to fuel severe storms, but the big question is how far north?

The latest SPC convective outlook puts the Twin Cities right on the northern edge of the severe risk Saturday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

It remains to be seen if things will fall into place as far north as the metro, but southeast Minnesota...Rochester, Albert Lea to La Crosse will stand a pretty good chance of watches, warnings and damaging T-Storms Saturday.

2012 still #1 warmest in USA through September:

The September numbers are in, and 2012 is still running away with the "hottest year on record" title for the lower 48 USA.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

You can see that the past 12 months are the 3rd warmest on record in the USA, and the top 2 also occurred during 2012.

Globally, 2012 is the 9th warmest year on record after a slow start...and now challenges the top 5 warmest years.

Climate Change Educational Opportunities Ahead:

If you are looking for a great way to learn more about the latest climate change news, here are two great opportunities.

The Annual Kuehnast Lecture Series at the University of Minnesota will present a "Mini-Climate School" at The University of Minnesota St. Paul Student Center Theater.

The event takes place Thursday, November 8, 2012 - 1:00 to 4:00 PM

I will be in attendance with MPR and UM's Dr. Mark Seeley and a host of other local climate experts.

This is a public forum ... all are welcome!

I will also give a talk at the Belwin Conservancy this Saturday at 2pm in Afton.

My talk will focus on the recent dramatic shifts in Minnesota climate, and what we can expect in the coming years.

You can contact Belwin for more information.

PH

Driest Septmeber in 130 years; "Omaha-like" 6-month Summer of 2012?

Posted at 5:08 PM on September 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Fall color

76F high at MSP at 2:48pm Friday

.30" September rainfall at MSP is 2nd driest on record

1882 - Last September drier than 2012 was 130 years ago

"Dry September" trend? 3 of the past 4 Septembers are among the 6 driest on record

+4.91F vs. average in the metro since March 1st

16 and counting September is the 16th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota

May 2011 last cooler than average month in the metro

February 1985 last month globally cooler than the 20th century average

Fall color peak in northern Minnesota this weekend?

Spectacular weekend forecast: MSP quick look

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Racoon basking in late Spetmeber warmth at Banning State Park.
Image Credit: Father Paul Kammenn

September 2012: One for the record books

Another month, another near record in Minnesota.

With a paltry .30" rainfall this month, this will go down as the driest September in 130 years, and the 2nd driest on record in the metro. Only 1882 (barley) squeezed out less rain with .27".

Source: MN Climate Working Group

Signs of a trend?

It's hard to say, but with 3 of the past 4 Septembers among the top 6 driest on record it seems our early fall periods are trending drier in Minnesota. I've spoken with Mark Seeley about this, and he indicates there is a distinct trend toward drier autumns in Minnesota.

Last fall was the driest on record, with just 1.36" precipitation in the metro.
Details from the MN Climate Working Group.

September through November 2011 was the driest Twin Cities meteorological autumn in the 141 year modern record. The September through November 2011 precipitation total at the Twin Cities International Airport was 1.36 inches, a negative departure of 5.92 inches from the 1981-2010 normal of 7.28 inches.

Driest meteorological autumns (September through November) in the Twin Cities (1871-2011)

With a "dry bias" continuing into the first 2 weeks of October, it appears we may be well on the way to another dry autumn in Minnesota.

Source: NOAA/GFS model

The incredible "6-Month Summer" of 2012? Welcome to Omaha!

Yes I may be overstating it a bit, but this has been a remarkable run of warmth since March. March was the warmest on record, and this was also the warmest spring on record at MSP, St. Cloud & Eau Claire.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Take a look at the temps vs. average at MSP Airport since March 1st.

March +15.5F (Warmest on record)
April +2.5F
May +4.6F (10th warmest)
June +3.5F (13th warmest)
July +6.4F (2nd warmest)
August +0.8F
September +1.3F

You can see it's not a stretch to say we've been feeling summer like weather for almost 6 months in the metro.

In fact the average temp since March 1st at MSP Airport is +4.91F. That's about like living in Omaha, Nebraska where the average annual temperature is about +5F warmer than the Twin Cities.

WCCO Radio & Strib sports legend Sid Hartmann always used to threaten that the Twin Cities would be just a "cold Omaha" without professional sports. Sid, it turns out we got Omaha's relatively balmy weather instead!

Red maple burst in Deephaven Friday
Image: Paul Huttner - MPR News

Fall color peak up north this weekend?

This looks like the weekend to see the fall color peak in northern Minnesota according to the latest MN DNR fall color map.

Source: MN DNR

Reality Check Ahead: Cold front arrives Wednesday

Enjoy the string of 70s through Tuesday. The next cold front comes sailing south from Canada Wednesday with a chance for a few showers, and much colder weather.

Highs may not climb out of the low 50s late next week.

It may finally start feeling like October around these parts late next week.

Source: NOAA/CPC

Until then enjoy...and have a great weekend!

PH

70s return; MN drought deepens; How "outlier" model nailed "Drought 2012" forecast

Posted at 8:52 AM on September 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Urban Heat Island

41F degrees low temp at MSP this morning

30F degrees at Lakeville this morning

+11F "Urban Heat Island Effect" this morning from city to outer suburbs

80F possible in SW metro by Friday?

New U.S. Drought Monitor issued this morning

77.45% of Minnesota now in "drought."

64.11% last week

+13% in one week

35% of Minnesota now in "severe" or "extreme" drought

ClimateCast: "Outlier" models accurately predicted drought & heat of 2012 - in January 2012 -details below

MSP quick look forecast:

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Classic "Urban Heat Island Effect" (UHI) today:

This is textbook stuff.

Conditions this morning were perfect for a pronounced UHI effect around the metro. The magnitude was about 11 degrees...it was 41 at MSP Airport and 30 at Lakeville this morning.

(click image to enlarge)

Source: NOAA/University of Utah

That's the difference between a solid frost and no frost. The UHI has "saved" the metro inner core from the season's 1st frost several times this month. With milder days in the forecast, it looks like the inner metro core will escape frost (well?) into October again this year.

70s and 80s return:

The center of seasonably cool Canadian high pressure is sliding east today. As winds begin to turn south, temps will warm the next few days.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Look for 70 in southern Minnesota and the metro today, and temps will make a run at 80 tomorrow, especially southwest of the metro. A "retrograding" low pressure system to the east may keep the temp rise in check this weekend, but temps in the mid 70s will be a good +10 degrees vs. average this weekend.

Drought deepens: Reaching critical phase now

This is no longer about throwing a little extra water on your lawn in Minnesota.

Drought is now deepening to "severe" and "extreme" levels in Minnesota, according to today's updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

77.45% of Minnesota is now in drought, up 13% in just one week. Only the tip of Minnesota's Arrowhead is staving off drought...and not for long.

The real concern is areas on northwest and southern Minnesota that are now pushing into the "extreme" drought category. Areas surrounding Thief River Falls in northwest Minnesota, and along I-90 is the south from Luverne to Worthington and up to Mankato have slipped into the "extreme drought" category.

I am growing increasingly concerned about our chances to recover from this expanding drought before the soil freeze up in December. If we don't see multi inch rainfall events between now and then, much of Minnesota is going to be precariously dry heading into Spring 2013.

This could have a huge impact on farmers next year if weather patterns persist.

After a wet spring & early summer, extremely dry soils, plummeting lake & pond levels, and tinder dry forests vulnerable to fire are again becoming the weather story in Minnesota this fall.

The good news? There's still about 8 weeks for weather patterns to change, and for traditional fall storms to wind up and dump heavy rains (and some snow) in Minnesota in October and November.

I'm not ready to give up on our chances for drought easing rains this fall, but the overall weather pattern does not look favorable for the next 2-3 weeks...and the window is growing shorter by the week.

ClimateCast: How did "outlier" model nail the drought of 2012?

That's a question many at NOAA are trying to answer these days.

Most of the "ensemble" models used to make long range seasonal forecasts missed the massive drought and intense heat wave of 2012 in the central USA.

One model, NOAA's GFDL (Geophysical Fluyd Dynamics Laboratory) basically nailed the notion fo drought and heat in the central USA this summer as early as January 2012.

Source: NOAA & Climate Central

But, the GFDL was laregly discounted as an "outlier" solution. The big question is why?

NOAA will be grappling with that question for the next few months, and trying to come up with a way to decide which models can provide the highest "forecast skill" in the future.

Andrew Freedman from Climate Central elaborates:

Although official drought outlooks failed to provide Americans with advanced notice of one of the worst droughts to strike the U.S. since the Dust Bowl-era -- a drought that is still ongoing -- there were some computer models that got the forecast right. Viewed as outliers at the time by climate forecasters tasked with making seasonal forecasts, such models look downright prescient with hindsight.

In the wake of the flawed forecasts, climate researchers are seeking to understand what enabled certain computer models to anticipate the drought and intense heat that affected much of the U.S. beginning in March, in order to recognize the early warning signs the next time around. Their task is a complex one, since models show varying levels of skill depending on the initial climate conditions and time of year when a forecast is made.

Had NOAA been able to put confidence into the eventual accuracy of the GFDL, the implications are huge.

Farmers would have been able to steer toward "drought tolerant" seeds. Commodities brokers and food companies would have anticipated record corn prices. State and local governments and shipping concerns could have planned for rapidly falling water supplies and low water on the Mississippi River.

Sometimes an "outlier" is a more valuable forecast tool than the "consensus." The trick is knowing when.

PH

70s return; Drought of 2012 has winners; Hottest year in USA likely

Posted at 6:24 PM on September 26, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Crops, Drought

64F high temp at MSP Wednesday at 2:59pm

70s return by Friday

0" GFS rainfall forecast through next Thursday

Winners in drought of 2012 - see below

"Outlier" models nailed the drought forecast in 2012 where others failed

93% chance 2012 will end as the hottest year on record in USA

MSP quick look forecast:

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Arizona, with lakes:

If you've ever wondered what January in Arizona is like, now you know.

Sunny cool days, clear chilly nights. Desert dry dew points in the 20s & 30s. Little chance for rain. That's the Sonoran Desert in January.

Our desert air mass lingers into next week, and temps will warm into the 70s by Friday and into the weekend.

Chances for a much needed soaking? Slim and none, and slim took the train to Missouri last week.

Source: NOAA GFS Model

The next best hope for any rain appears to be next Friday October 5th.

Source: University of Wisconsin

Drought 2012 has... winners?

Remember that old saying..."there really is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather?"

It appears to apply in the drought of 2012.

We've talked a lot this year about the "losers" and negative effects of drought...and there are many.

Here's a list of some who are drought "winners" this year, and have come out ahead this year. In some cases, way ahead.

-Homeowners and insurance companies: 2012 is the quietest tornado season in 24 years in the USA. After the devastating losses in the 2011 "Metronadoes" in Joplin and Tuscaloosa, insurers have suffered lower losses from tornadoes in 2012.

SPC reports 724 tornadoes so far in 2012. That's the fewest since 702 in 1988, another drought year. It's also way below the 1,691 tornadoes last year and the 3 year average of 1,382. 2012 looks like it will go down in the lowest 10% of all tornado years barring major fall outbreaks.

-Farmers who have a good corn crop: It's the "perfect storm" in a good way for many Minnesota farmers this year. Many had a good crop, and the drought that grips the central & southern corn belt sent corn prices soaring to record highs. If you have a crop, you're getting record prices this year.

-Ag companies who develop drought resistant seeds: This is a growing area of demand as drought increases.

-Builders, painters & landscapers have all benefitted from less rain and more work days. Jobs move along faster meaning more money in a shorter period of time. Landscapers report increased business from checking & replacing drought stressed plants.

-Heating & AC companies: The long summer heat wave produced high demand for AC sales, install and repair crews.

-Ice cream vendors & Laundromats? Yes it was a busy year at your local DQ, and for your local ice cream truck. And apparently many small town laundromats saw a boom in business as rural residents came "into town" to do laundry and take stress of of household well systems.

Who knew?

ClimateCast: 93% chance 2012 will go down as hottest year ever in USA

Remember 1998?

That's the hottest year on record in the USA. At least for another 3 months.

USA temps in 2012 are running a full 3F above the record pace of 1998 so far. It will take a remarkably cold shift the last 3 months to keep 2012 from going down as the hottest year on record.

Source: NOAA/NCDC & Climate Central - Andrew Freedman

The details from Climate Central, who cites The Weather Channel analysis putting the odds at 93% it will happen.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, 1998 was the warmest year on record in the U.S., with an average temperature of 55.08°F. So far, 2012 has been on track to smash that record by about 3°F. This Climate Central graphic illustrates that in order to avoid setting the record for the warmest year, the period of September through December would need to be exceptionally cold, ranking in the coolest third of average temperatures for the period.

Additionally, according to The Weather Channel, taking only the years since World War II, the odds of not surpassing the warmest year are just 7 percent. So while it's certainly possible that 2012 won't be a record-breaker, it would take a heck of a cold snap to pull that off.

PH

Bye Bye Summer of 2012; Temp crash today; 90s unlikely again

Posted at 8:02 AM on September 12, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Heat

Cold front arrives! 20-30 degrees cooler next few days

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Scattered showers today in southern Minnesota

Source: Twin Cities NWS

95F at MSP Tuesday (62F this morning - a 33 degree temp plunge!)

31st day of 90+ heat in 2012 in the metro (most in 24 years)

96F record high Tuesday(set in 1931 & 1895)

74F average high for 9-11

+20 degrees vs. average Tuesday!

97F in New Ulm, Owatonna, Blaine & Eden Prairie

98F in Canby

99F in Madison

339 Wildfire "Incidents" in the USA according to Inciweb

Hottest year ever so far for the lower 48 USA

Cold front blowing in temps 20+ degrees cooler Wednesday

Cooler pattern emerging next 1-2 weeks across Minnesota?

Summer 2012: Out with a bang:

This is likely it for the blast furnace heat in the summer of 2012.

Temps soared to near 100 degrees under perfect conditions in southern Minnesota Tuesday. Late season sun, a gusty south wind and desert dry dew points combined to turbo-charge temps to record levels in Minnesota for September 11th.

The "thermal ridge" set up right over Minnesota Tuesday.

Source: University of Illinois

98 in Canby? 99 in Madison? On September 11th? That's the new weather math in Minnesota this year.

Desert dry air mass:

One reason temps soared Tuesday is the desert dry nature of the air mass sweeping into Minnesota this week. Dew points hung in the 40s Tuesday. Dry air is much easier to heat (and cool) than moist, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico

The air mass sweeping into Minnesota Wednesday is ridiculously dry for Minnesota. Dew points ran in the teens in Montana Tuesday...and 20s in North Dakota. That's desert air folks.

Source: University of Illinois

The air mass is feeding off drought in the northern Rockies and the Midwest. There's just no "moisture source" to absorb water vapor from.

Persistence is not just a made up weather word. Drought feeds drought.

With drought comes fires:

Check out the "fire incident map" from Inciweb. There are 339 "incidents" reported this week...most are active fires in the western USA.

Over 8 million acres have burned in the hot dry summer of 2012.

Pattern Change Ahead: Colder than average next 1-2 weeks?

There are strong signs that our weather pattern in Minnesota is about to change for the cooler...and stay there for a while.

The jet stream has been on vacation in northern Canada all summer long. A southward shift appears ready to drive the jet south toward Minnesota, and plunge a series of colder air masses southward in the next 2 weeks.

Source: NOAA/CPC

Highs will hover around 70 the rest of this week. After a milder weekend that may see an 80 degree reading in southern Minnesota by Sunday... a second, stronger cold front will dive south next week, and highs may struggle to reach the upper 60s in the metro, and 60 up north.

2012: Warmest year ever in the USA so far

The hit hits just keep on comin' for the USA this year.

Look at how far (+4F) above average the USA is running in 2012. The chart below from NOAA's NCDC is a great illustration of just how incredible 2012 heat run is in the USA.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

It's interesting to note that even though July 2012 was the hottest month ever on record in the USA, it was "just" the 4th hottest globally. Notice how the heat was focused on the USA and parts of eastern Europe and Russia, with cooler than average weather in the southern hemisphere.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

Even though the Twin Cities has logged 15 months in a row of above average temps now, it's not unthinkable to see a scenario where we flip into a cooler than average pattern for a few months.

I'm not holding my breath.

PH

USA Drought: 2nd biggest on record; "Cool & wet" State Fair of 2012?

Posted at 5:50 PM on August 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

62% of the contiguous USA covered by "moderate drought" in 2012

2nd highest percentage on record

"Mega droughts" of the 1930s & 1950s longer lasting

2013 Critical year for Midwest agriculture

Cooler & wetter than average - early outlook for the 2013 Minnesota State Fair

Patchy frost? Upper 30s possible in parts of northern Minnesota Friday morning

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Drought 2012: We're #2

The numbers for the 2012 drought are staggering. A full 62% of the lower 48 USA is in "moderate" or deeper drought as of this week in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor USDA & UNL

Looking back at the historical perspective from NOAA, it appears the only year with a higher percentage of drought was 1934, when a staggering 80% of the lower 48 states were mired in drought.

Here are the top 5 years and the percentage of the lower 48 states covered by moderate or worse drought.

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Aug 2012, 62%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

Another measure is to look at the area of severe or greater drought.

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 46%
4) Jul 2012, 45%
5) Aug 1936, 43%

2012: A one year drought...so far

As bad as the drought of 2012 is, keep in mind it's only a 1 year drought...so far.

The droughts of the 1930s "Dust Bowl" and 1950s were multi-year "mega droughts."

"Black Sunday" Source: NOAA

Jeff Masters from the Weather Underground elaborates.

An important fact to remember is that the 2012 drought is--so far--only a one-year drought. Recall that 2011 saw record rains that led to unprecedented flooding on the Mississippi, Ohio, and Missouri Rivers. In contrast, the great droughts of the 1950s and 1930s were multi-year droughts.

The Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s lasted up to eight years in some places, with the peak years being 1934, 1936, and 1939 - 1940. Once the deep soil dries out, it maintains a memory of past drought years. This makes is easier to have a string of severe drought years. Since the deep soil this summer still maintains the memory of the very wet year of 2011, the 2012 drought will be easier to break than the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s were.

2013: Critical year for farmers

Next year will be a critical year for the nation's bread basket.

Will we see ample rainfall to recharge soils in the Midwest? Or will we continue to deepen an already significant drought scenario in the Midwest and Southern Plains?

This winter's trend toward El Nino could deliver a wetter than average winter in the Southern Plains with abundant rainfall. That could help eat away at drought conditions in places like Texas and Oklahoma by next spring.

A milder than average winter in the Upper Midwest could mean soils may stay frost free longer this winter, and precip could favor rain instead of snow. That could help recharge soils some in the so called "vowel states" from Iowa to Ohio.

If weather patterns favor a wet spring and early summer, we may be able to dig out of drought in much of the central USA.

However, If the drought persists into 2013, we could deepen an already bad drought, and be on track for another "multi-year" drought in the Midwest.

2013 will be a critical year for agriculture in the Midwest.

Seeley Perspective: Beneficial rains this month

Here's a preview from this week's Weather Talk from my MPR colleague and UM Professor Dr. Mark Seeley.

Topic: Beneficial rainfall for some

The first half of August brought some significant rainfall to many areas of the state, and in somewhat heavy doses in places. Thunderstorms brought 1.56 inches to International Falls and 1.40 inches to Red Wing Dam on August 15th. Some areas south of the Twin Cities (New Prague, Farmington, Rosemount) also received over 1 inch from fast moving thunderstorms on the 15th. In addition some hail over 1 inch in diameter fell over western counties. Many observers have reported over 2 inches for the month so far, while some locations (Preston, Lanesboro, Caledonia, Grand Portage) have received over 3 inches. The rainfall so far this month has kept the drought stricken area from expanding in size this month.

Temperatures are averaging from 1 to 3 degrees F cooler than normal so far this month. For six consecutive days over August 9-14 daily temperatures were cooler than normal, a stretch of cooler than normal weather not seen since June 22-28, 2011 (15 months ago). Brimson, International Falls, Orr, and Embarrass have already reported overnight lows in the 30s F. Meanwhile at the Amundsen-Scott Station at the South Pole (Antarctica) it was -77 degrees F this week.

Despite cooler than normal temperatures, crops are rapidly maturing well ahead of the normal calendar pace. Corn will be ready for early harvest, while sugar beets are already being lifted in some places.

Topic: New Seasonal Climate Outlooks

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday (August 16th) covering the period from September to November. September is expected to be warmer than normal for much of the nation's midsection. Over September to November Minnesota is expected to see above normal temperatures prevail and equal chances for above or below normal precipitation during this period.

NOAA also released a new Drought Outlook this week, covering the period through November 30th. The outlook calls for improvement in Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. Unfortunately the outlook favors drought persistence in southwestern Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, and southern Illinois.

You can hear more from Mark with Cathy Wurzer in the 6am hour of Morning Edition on MPR News stations on Friday mornings.

Minnesota State Fair 2013: Cooler & wetter than average?

I had to pinch myself today when I realized the Minnesota State Fair starts in 1 week!

It's been a long, hot summer up until the past 2 weeks. When summer essentially stared on St. Patty's day with the earliest 80 degree reading in Twin Cities history you knew it was going to be a long (6 month?) summer.

We've certainly enjoyed more than our share of heat with 26 days of 90 degree heat (the most since 27 days in 2007) so far. And the 2 days above 100 degrees were the most since the infamous summer of 1988 when we suffered through 4 days. You won't hear any whining form the weather lab about the pleasantly cooler air wafting over Minnesota these days. I'm happy to give my AC unit (and electric bill) a long rest.

The early look at the Minnesota State Fair forecast suggests that we may see cooler and wetter than average conditions overall.

The GFS (which has been doing a better job lately after a bad run early this summer) suggests a cool 1st weekend for the Fair with highs probably in the 70s. A low pressure storm may swirl rain through Minnesota next Wednesday, and possibly linger into the Fair opening day Thursday. Cool Canadian high pressure may build in for the first weekend fo the Fair, which could mean cool, but sunny and pleasant weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

NOAAs CPC agrees.

That kind of cool is perfect for the Fair in my book.

The following week is a long way out on the weather maps, but trends suggest it may warm back into the 80s with scattered thunder for the following week...with the potential for a shot at a "traditional" 90 degree temp for one day. Then another cooler air mass may move in by Labor Day weekend.

The GFS is painting a pretty wet picture overall for the fair...cranking out over 3" of rain centered on the12 day Fair run.

Again NOAA's CPC supports the trend of a wetter pattern ahead.

Source: NOAA/CPC

There will be plenty of really nice days at the Fair this year. Just be ready for a little rain and cool weather too.

I'm putting my money on anything hot "on a stick" this year.

PH

Duluth Waterspout Update: Twister makes landfall on Park Point; USA's warmest "year" ever

Posted at 5:07 PM on August 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Tornadoes

EF0 Waterspout turned "tornado" after making landfall on Park Point Thursday

30 to 40 feet path width of Park Point tornado

.18 mile path length on Park Point (about 950 feet)

Photo By Lucie Amundsen of Duluth

Duluth NWS update: Waterspout makes landfall

The Duluth NWS added detail and new information to an updated the local storm report (LSR) on Thursday's waterspout event.

Additional reports into the Duluth NWS show the waterspout did make landfall on Park Point Thursday. The twister was strong enough to shove a couple of 500 pound floats around.

Here's the update LSR from the Duluth NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

1105 AM WATER SPOUT 5 ESE DULUTH 46.75N 92.01W
08/09/2012 LSZ145 MN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER SPOUT WAS SPOTTED 2 MILES OFF OF PARK POINT FROM
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AND WAS MOVING SSW TOWARDS PARK POINT.
THE WATERSPOUT MADE LANDFALL AT PARK POINT NEAR THE
AIRPORT.

1111 AM TORNADO 5 SE DULUTH 46.73N 92.04W
08/09/2012 F0 ST. LOUIS MN AIRPLANE PILOT

A WATERSPOUT MADE LANDFALL ON PARK POINT AND MOVED OVER
THE SKY HARBOR AIRPORT. THERE WAS NO DAMAGE...HOWEVER 2
FLOATS...WEIGHING ABOUT 500 POUNDS EACH...WERE PICKED UP
AND ROTATED. THE TORNADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 FEET
WIDE AND HAD A PATH LENGHT OF .18 MILE. RATING IS AN EF0

1113 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE DULUTH 46.72N 92.05W
08/09/2012 ST. LOUIS MN AIRPLANE PILOT

THE WATERSPOUT CONTINUED AFTER PASSING OVER PARK POINT.
IT WAS ON THE WATER FOR .54 MILES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
BRIEFLY AT BARKERS ISLAND.

1119 AM TORNADO 5 SE DULUTH 46.72N 92.05W
08/09/2012 F0 DOUGLAS WI PUBLIC

THIS WAS A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AS THE WATERSPOUT MADE
LANDFALL AGAIN AT BARKERS ISLAND. THERE WAS NO DAMAGE.

Waterspouts are tornadoes over water. They technically become "tornadoes" when they reach land. This baby started over water then crossed Park Point, moved back over water, then made a final "landfall." That makes this a unique "double landfall" waterspout/tornado. Or you might say a "waterspout-tornado-waterspout-tornado."

Wow.

Seeley: Lack of tornadoes in July & Minneota farmes may prosper in USA's drought year

My MPR colleague Mark Seeley has some excellent insight on the July's "tornado drought" and the positive news for most Minnesota farmers as much of Minnesota's corn & soybean crop continue to thrive in our oasis from drought in 2012.

Here's a preview from this week's "Weather Talk:"

Topic: Lack of tornadoes in July

The dominance of heat and lack of rainfall across the USA had a silver lining......fewer severe storms and the smallest number of tornadoes reported in July during the modern era with just 24 nationwide. In fact according to Dr. Harold Brooks of NOAA the USA reported fewer July tornadoes than the Canadian province of Saskatchewan which had plenty of thunderstorms and tornadoes (nearly 30). You can read more about this at the Climate Central web site:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-loses-to-canada-in-july-tornado-competition/

Topic: August bringing a respite from July heat and dryness

So far August has brought more seasonable temperatures to Minnesota, and thankfully moisture for some areas, including portions of some of the 28 Minnesota counties in severe drought status. Through the first ten days Halstad, Itasca State Park, Bemidji, Gull Lake, Cass Lake, Park Rapids, Ottertail, Redwood Falls, Worthington, Albert Lea, Owatonna, and La Crescent have received over 1.50 inches. A few areas have received over 2 inches including Spring Grove, Zumbrota, Lamberton, Morris, and Wheaton. Caledonia in Houston County already reports over 3 inches. August 4-5 brought the first back to back days with below normal temperatures since late June, and August 10th brought the coldest temperatures (39 F at Crane Lake, Big Fork, and Orr) and lowest dewpoints since June 13th.

For the first time in many months the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a persistent spell of cooler and wetter than normal weather for Minnesota during the mid-August period. This will continue to bring welcome relief to Minnesota agriculture, though it may be too late to boost corn yields. It will likely help soybeans, pasture grasses, and alfalfa fields.

Topic: Bullet points from Farmfest 2012

-Severe drought prevails in 28 Minnesota counties, yet just 16 percent of the corn crop is in poor to very poor condition, and just 13 percent of soybeans, relatively small percentages when compared to the crop conditions in so many other states (IL, IA, MO, IN)

-Drought has pushed major commodity prices high (corn $8.29/bu, soybean $16.31/bu) and they may go higher yet. This may lead to higher food prices and higher costs for livestock feeding as the supply chain in these crops is suppressed by lower yield estimates.

-Congress left for recess with many pieces of legislation unsettled, including the new Farm Bill and other agricultural legislation.

-August weather is expected to bring some relief from stress in Minnesota's crops (with cooler and wetter conditions), but the same relief from the weather pattern may not prevail in other Midwestern states to the south.

-This is the 8th consecutive summer that severe drought has appeared somewhere on the Minnesota landscape (2005-2012), a persistence pattern than has not appeared since the Dust Bowl Era of the 1930s.

NOAA: Warmest 12 moths ever recorded in USA...again

One additional detail notable from this week's NOAA July climate summary is that the past 12 months were (again) the warmest ever recorded in the USA.

Here are the details from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

•The August 2011-July 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12-months on record for the contiguous U.S., narrowly surpassing the record broken last month for the July 2011-June 2012 period by 0.07°F. The nationally averaged temperature of 56.1°F was 3.3°F above the long term average. Except Washington, which was near average, every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

Looking at the chart above shows the remarkable run of heat the USA is on. The past 4 months have all ended the warmest "year" on record in the USA. The 14 warmest "12 month periods" have all occurred since 2000. That's simply incredible, and extremely improbable in a "random" system.

It's been 27 years since the last cooler than average month globally. February 1985 was the last month cooler than the 20th century global average.

The only reasonable way to look at these trends is to conclude something is forcing our climate system in an unstoppably warmer direction. All the best science says it's the rapid increase and accumulation of human produced greenhouse gasses.

You change the chemical composition of our atmosphere, and you increase the heat trapping ability of the atmosphere.

People have turned this into complicated politics. It's really just simple chemistry.

PH

El Nino takes hold; Odds favor another mild winter

Posted at 9:51 AM on August 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

+1.5C Current Pacific SST's off Central & South American coasts

81% Chance of El Nino conditions by October-December

60% to 80% Historical chance of warmer than average temps next winter in Minnesota & the Upper Midwest in El Nino winters

"A butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean. They can even calculate the odds. It just isn't likely. And it takes...so long."

-Robert Redford as math wise card shark Jack Weil in Havana

The "innumerable" interconnections of nature mean a butterfly's flap could cause a tornado - or, for all we know, could prevent one. Similarly, should we make even a tiny alteration to nature, "we shall never know what would have happened if we had not disturbed it."

-Peter Dizikes musing on the meaning MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz' "Butterfly Effect"

Edward Lorenz' "Butterfly Effect"
Source: Wikipedia

Weather & Climate as Chaos Theory?

In the Sydney Pollack movie Havana, Robert Redford pines over his lost love (Lena Olin) by referring to the Butterfly Effect.

The idea is, tiny changes in atmospheric conditions in one part of the world can have immense consequences somewhere else.

This may not be exactly what MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz meant when he opened the door to what is now called "chaos theory" but it does make you realize the meteorological world is more "connected" than we once thought.

A revolution in seasonal forecasting:

If you really think about it, meteorologists and climatologists have made incredible strides in predictability in both short term forecasts (weather) and longer term seasonal outlooks (climate) in the past few decades.

When I started this career in the 1980s, El Nino was almost an unknown phenomenon. When the massive 1987 El Nino began to pound California with massive storms, climate experts and meteorologists began to realize there was something going on the tropical Pacific Ocean that had impacts thousands of miles away.

The discovery of the "linkage" between El Nino/La Nina phases and regional seasonal trends in weather patterns has been an increasingly valuable tool in seasonal forecasting.

El Nino Returns:

The tropical Pacific heated up in June & July. Take a look at the latest images from a nice piece put together by meteorologist Mike Baker from the Denver-Boulder NWS.
(Click on imgaes for a bigger view)

Images from Mike Baker-Denver-Boulder NWS

The best science at this point leaves little doubt that a moderate to strong El Nino event is likely this winter.

Another Mild Winter Ahead?

Statistics show a strong bias toward milder than average winters in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest during El Nino years. It's not a slam dunk, but the historical odds favor milder than average winters to the tune of about 60% to 80% in El Nino years.

Source: NOAA/CPC

If you overlay the background hum of a warming climate on top of El Nino, I'm tempted to say there is an even higher chance (maybe 90%?) of a milder than average winter for Minnesota in 2012-'13. But nothing in weather & seasonal forecasting is certain.

As for snowfall, it stands to reason that a milder winter will produce less than average snowfall...but it's also not a certainty. Still, historical data from NOAA's CPC does support less snowfall for Minnesota in El Nino winters.

Source: NOAA/CPC

Indeed the latest seasonal outlooks from CPC place the best odds for a warm winter right over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Source: NOAA/CPC

Other effects from El Nino tend to favor wetter than average winters from Southern California through the Desert Southwest and southern states.

Time will tell, but it looks right now like we may see another mild winter with below average snowfall for Minnesota.

In the meantime, carry on with summer and fall!

PH

Climatic Fever: 2012 hottest ever so far in USA; Rare 11k foot tornado

Posted at 4:34 PM on August 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

Climatic Fever: +4.3F vs. average in the USA so far in 2012

Hottest July on record +3.3F for the USA (lower 48 states)

63.9% of the USA in "drought" as of July 24th - a new record

62.91% of the USA still in drought as of last week

2 million acres burned in July wildfires in the USA

Source: NOAA/NCDC

NOAA: July 2012 - hotter than the "Dust Bowl"

The steamy, smoky climate numbers are in for July.

According to NOAA it was the hottest July (+3.3F vs. average) ever on record for the lower 48 states in 118 years of records.

Source: NOAA

In fact, July 2012 eclipsed the "Dust Bowl" era record from July 1936 as the hottest on record. More from NOAA:

Drought expands to cover nearly 63% of the Lower 48; wildfires consume 2 million acres

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6°F, 3.3°F above the 20th century average, marking the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the nation. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F. The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.

Hot weather hits just keep on comin'

2012 is now the hottest year on record so far in the USA.

The USA's average temp is running at a high grade fever, a full +4.3 degrees vs. the 20th century average for the 1st seven months of the year. Look how far 2012 is off the charts through July.

Source: NOAA

•The January-July period was the warmest first seven months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 56.4°F was 4.3°F above the long-term average. Most of the contiguous U.S. was record and near-record warm for the seven-month period, except the Pacific Northwest, which was near average.

The "Climate Extremes Index" (yes, there is such a beast) also reached a record in July according to NOAA's national Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

•The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record-large 46 percent during the January-July period, over twice the average value, and surpassing the previous record large CEI of 42 percent which occurred in 1934. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures (83 percent) and warm nighttime temperatures (74 percent) both covered record large areas of the nation, contributing to the record high year-to-date USCEI value.

Drought reached record:

We've been talking about the intense and expanding drought in much of the USA this summer. Here's word from NOAA that the drought area reached record proportions in July.

•According to the July 31, 2012, U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), 62.9 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate to exceptional drought at the end of July. This is an increase of about 6.9 percent compared to the end of June. The maximum value of 63.9 percent reached on July 24 is a record in the 13-year history of the USDM.

Note how Minnesota remains a relative oasis mostly free of the severe drought that's gripping the nation this summer.

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Tornado at nearly 12,000 feet?

Talk about a wild July highlight.

Several people witnessed a rare high elevation tornado on Mt. Evans in Colorado in late July. The NWS estimates this was the 2nd highest tornado ever recorded in the USA. The only higher twister touched down at 12,000 feet...just 100 feet higher.

As you can see the circulation extends well above the mountainside.

We know tornadic circulations extend high into tornadic storms. It's just rare to observe the twister this high up as most tornadic supercells in the plains have much lower cloud bases. Drier air near the surface means "high based" storms are more common in the west.

PH

Welcomed rain in southwest Minnesota

Posted at 6:37 AM on August 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Record, dew point

Once again the extreme southwest corner of Minnesota and Sioux Falls, S.D. were shorted on the rainfall in the past 24 hours. While Marshall picked up 1.68 inches of rain, Sioux Falls tallied less than a quarter inch (0.16).

Estimated rainfall totals past 24 hours. Source: NOAA/Wunderground.com

Prior to strong storms firing up in southwest Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon, the mercury soared to 99 at Marshall and a record 102 degrees at Sioux Falls.

The heat index reached 100 dgrees in the Twin Cities in the afternoon hours. The maximum temperature in both Minneapolis and St. Paul was 92 degrees, with dew points in the lower 70s. It is interesting to note that with the dew point of only 55 at Sioux Falls, with a temperature of 101 at the time, their heat index was 100 degrees. it is indeed about the humidity when it comes to the feels-like temperature in the summer.

Thursday's expected maximum temperatures. Source: NOAA NWS

Temperatures will be more comfortable today but still summerlike. Look for afternoon readings only in the upper 70s in far northern Minnesota.

A stronger cool front is forecast to sweep through the upper Midwest on Friday night. This will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of Minnesota later on Friday and Friday night.

NOAA's predicted rainfall for Friday into early Saturday morning.

On Saturday the passing cold front will usher in brisk northwest winds with a mixture of clouds and sun in the afternoon. You'll notice the change in the air mass.

Stand up and cheer if you embrace cooler temperatures -- on Sunday northwest winds will ease and plenty of sunshine should make for a comfortable afternoon.

1 p.m. CDT temperatures, wind and pressure. Source: GFS model/College of Dupage

Closing the book on a very warm July

Posted at 6:45 AM on August 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Summer, Thunderstorms

According to the National Weather Service in Duluth the average temperature of 71.9 for the month of July tied for the warmest July on record. Many locations in the state will likely come in with statistics that confirm this was the first, second or third warmest July on record.

Here's a nice summary prepared by the LaCrosse, WI NWS office on the historical heat of July 2012. LaCrosse average temperature for the month of 79.6 degrees did set a July record dating back to 1872.

Source: Regional Climate Center/LaCrosse NWS

High temperatures today will once again top 90 degrees in southern Minnesota. The dew points are expected to creep into the uncomfortable range as well. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the highest in the southern third of Minneota.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center expects a small threat of storms producing large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and tonight.

Some scattered thunderstorms were already traveling through west central Minnesota this morning.

Radar screen capture at 7 a.m. CDT showing thunderstorms through west central Minnesota. Source: Weatherunderground/NWS

Thursday is expected to be warm with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. The big show pulls into town on Friday and Friday night with a collison of air masses that has the potential to produce strong storms. We'll have more on that severe weather risk on Thursday.

Storm Prediction Center threat for severe weather on Friday and Friday night.

Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic was quiet tin July. Debby blasted the Florida panhandle in late June with 20 inches of rain. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Ernesto. More on the history of Tropical Storm Debby at this web link.

Craig Edwards

Unlike any other July in the Twin Cities

Posted at 6:50 AM on July 31, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Forecast models, Summer

The mercury surged to 96 degrees in Sioux Falls, S.D. on Monday afternoon as the bright summer sun reflected off the parched soil. In the Twin Cities metro area, Eden Prairie topped out at 90 while the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 89 degrees.

It was a comfortable afternoon in northeast Minnesota with the highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees lower in southern Minnesota today, but could still climb to readings warmer than normal. Expect readings in the middle 80s by late afternoon in the Twin Cities. Once we reach 80 degrees we can official proclaim that this will be the first July in recorded weather history that the maximum temperature reached 80 degrees or high each day of the month.

The average maximum temperature, as recorded at the Twin Cities International Airport for July stands at 90 degrees. Including today's projected maximum temperature we will likely finish just shy of 90.0 degrees.

Historically, there have been two Julys where the average maximum temperature averaged 90 degrees or higher: 92.5 degrees in 1936 and 90.2 degrees in 1988 according to Pete Boulay at the State Climate Office. It looks like the Twin Cities should finish with a maximum average temperature of about 90 for the month.

Mount Pinatubo eruption June 12, 1991. Source: USGS

My first summer in the Twin Cities was equally memorable when it comes to temperatures. It was the summer following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. July of 1992 delivered only three days where the maximum temperature reached 80 degrees or greater. The average high temperature for the month was just 74.7 degrees. Compare that to this years average minimum of 70 degrees. The ash debris from the volcano was thought to be a large contributor to the rather cool summer.

It injected large amounts of aerosol into the stratosphere - more than any eruption since that of Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.900 °F), and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially. (Source Wikipedia)

Temperature heat up again on Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. The NAM computer model pushes a strong surge of warmth into southern Minnesota on Friday. This could help fuel stronger thunderstorms Friday night when a cool front swings through the state.

This mornings IR satellite image from NOAA depicts a nice cluster of thunderstorms over Alabama as shown by the enhanced cloud tops. A smaller area of showers and thunderstorms extended from just south of Chicago into northern Indiana.

515 a.m. CDT IR Satellite. Source;NOAA

Look for cooler temperatures for the weekend. Perhaps high temperatures will fall shy of 80 degrees in the Twin Cities on Sunday. I don't think we are done with the 90s yet.

Craig Edwards

Drought expands in MN; Major break in USA heat wave next week

Posted at 6:20 PM on July 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Heat

62.40% of Minnesota now "abnormally dry" or in "drought"

84 degrees Thursday's high at MSP at 4:16pm

2nd straight day with highs below 85 degrees

June 24th & 25th - Last time we enjoyed 2 days below 85 degrees at MSP

66 degrees at Cook County Airport on the hill above Grand Marais at 4pm Thursday

22 and holding # of days at or above 90 at MSP in 2012

Models backing off on magnitude of heat for metro next 7 days

Low 90s this weekend in the metro

Mid 90s for southwest Minnesota!

Edge of hot dome for MN next few days

Major break in heat wave for eastern half of USA next week

Still hot in Rockies and western plains states into next week

Drought Expands in Minnesota:

Thursday's updated U.S. Drought Monitor continues the trend of expanding drought in Minnesota.

Source: USDA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

62% of Minnesota is now listed as either "abnormally dry" or in "drought." The growing drought areas form an arc around the Twin Cities metro and eastern Minnesota to the west.

The worst drought areas...with moderate to severe drought include the I-90 corridor in the south, and northwest Minnesota, which never really caught up with rainfall this year.

"Random" Rainfall Pattern:

Yes, "random" is the best word to describe summertime "convective" rainfall. One town, farm, or lawn may get an inch of rain, while 1 mile away there's barely a drop.

That has been the case the last few weeks as you can see on the Minnesota rainfall map from the MN Climate Working Group's Drought update this week.

Source: MN Climate Working Group

My MPR colleague and UM climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley expands on the random nature of recent rainfall patterns in Minnesota in this week's Weather Talk post which goes live on Friday mornings.

Here's the Updraft "special preview" a day early.

Topic: Random pattern of thunderstorms prevails this month

Much of the state has been missed by significant rainfalls this month, leading to more Minnesota counties placed in drought status by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Portions of Rock and Nobles, as well as Clay, Norman, Polk, Mahnomen, Pennington, Red Lake, Marshall, and Beltrami Counties were place in the "severe drought" category this week. Much of the rest of northwestern and southwestern Minnesota remains in moderate drought. Elsewhere portions of southern Wisconsin, southern Illinois, Indiana and northern Missouri were placed in the "extreme drought" category.

Despite this, some areas have seen significant, even record-setting amounts of rainfall. On Friday, July 13th International Falls received a record 2.68 inches while Spring Grove received a record 2.95 inches. On July 18th (Wednesday this week) Bethel, Isanti, and Rice received over 2 inches of rainfall, while Milaca reported 1.35 inches and Spring Valley received 1.51 inches. For the month of July so far, the random pattern of thunderstorm activity has produced normal or above normal rainfall amounts for a handful of observers in widely dispersed sections of the state including:
Brainerd (4.17"), International Falls (4.02"), Spring Grove (3.91"), Stillwater (3.73"), Milaca (3.43"), Kabetogama (3.40"), Moose Lake (3.38"), Mora (3.31"), Ottertail (3.11"), and Hallock (2.28")

You can hear more from Mark with Cathy Wurzer at 6:45 am Friday mornings on MPR News stations. (91.1FM in the metro)

Backing off (a bit) on weekend heat for the metro:

There are subtle but significant changes to the upper air pattern, and eventual placement and magnitude of the next round of heat this weekend and early next week.

This may actually turn out to be a nice (but warm) weekend for the finale for the 2012 Minneapolis Aquatennial.

Starting Wednesday evening, all the major models including the GFS, NAM and Euro locked on to a solution that shifted the core of the intense heat dome slightly south & west. The resulting pattern places eastern Minnesota and the metro more on the edge of the (re) developing heat dome.

Wednesday morning's run of NOAA's NAM (North American Mesoscale) model had been forecasting 97 degrees for Friday's max temp. It backed off to 88 degrees by Wednesday night, a full 9 degree drop. Thursday morning's run holds the max temp at 88 degrees.

Core of the heat dome favors southwest Minnesota this weekend.
Source: Twin Cities NWS

It still looks like we will hover in the low 90s this weekend in the metro, but that's significantly "less hot" than the mid- upper 90s advertised in some forecasts.

Another glancing puff of Canadian high pressure by later Sunday & into early next week may be enough to turn light breezes into the east again in the metro. That may keep us in the upper 80s instead of 90s few most of the next week.

We may still eek out 1-3 days of 90 degrees in the metro in the next 7 days, but at this point I just don't see an unbroken string of 90+ degree days for the metro.

The core of 95 to 100 degree heat will probably stay just south & west of the Twin Cities. We could easily see another round of 95 to 100+ degree heat in southwest Minnesota, western Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska.

Bottom line? Still very warm to hot at times in the metro, but it looks like we'll be on the edge of the core of the hot dome that will bake the central plains and southwest Minnesota this weekend.

Pattern Change Ahead: Much cooler (& wetter) next week?

Virtually everyone I talk to these days ask me the same question. "Paul, when will the heat & humidity finally end?

There is good news for Minnesotans in the weather maps for next week.

Shifts are taking place in the "hemispheric" upper air pattern that will bring a cooler and possibly wetter pattern to Minnesota next week.

The GFS (NOAA's Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European) models have advertised for several days now a shift to a northwest flow in the upper atmosphere next week. That shift will allow cooler puffs of Canadian high pressure to build into Minnesota by later next week and into the last weekend of July.

In a new twist, the latest GFS runs are developing low pressure in next Wednesday that could bring some decent (1"+?) rainfall to much of Minnesota.

If current trends continue we could see several days in the 80s instead of 90s...and maybe even some rain next week. By the weekend of July 28th, cooler drier high pressure still should bring highs in the 70s to most of Minnesota, and comfortable dew points in the 40s north and 50s south.

The core of the heat dome appears to be shifting back to the south & west, where states Colorado & Kansas to Nebraska could still feel the intensity of 100 degree temps next week.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is picking up on the trend of pushing the heat dome to the south late next week.

As northwest flow expands next week over the eastern half of the USA, the heat wave should break in the eastern half of the USA from Chicago all the way to the east coast.

This could truly be a significant break in the persistent heat wave in the summer of 2012.

PH

NOAA: 2012 hottest year on record in USA so far

Posted at 4:52 PM on July 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

+4.5 degrees in the USA through June 2012

USA's Warmest year on record so far in 2012

Word this week that this is the hottest year on record for the USA so far in 2012. This is not a big surprise given the record warm march and the brutal summer heat so far.

Here are some quick details from NOAA. Here is a link to the full report.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

•The January-June period was the warmest first half of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 52.9°F was 4.5°F above average. Most of the contiguous U.S. was record and near-record warm for the six-month period, except the Pacific Northwest. Twenty-eight states east of the Rockies were record warm and an additional 15 states were top ten warm.

If you take the past 12 months as a whole going back to last July, this is the warmest year on record for the USA.

•The July 2011-June 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12-months on record for the contiguous U.S., narrowly surpassing the record broken last month for the June 2011-May 2012 period by 0.05°F. The nationally-averaged temperature of 56.0°F was 3.2°F above the long term average. Every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period, except Washington, which was near normal.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

PH

2012: Warmest in 25 years so far in MN; Near 90 for the next week?

Posted at 6:42 PM on June 28, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

13th straight month of above average temps at MSP Airport

25 years: 1st half of 2012 is the warmest in Minnesota since 1987
(Details from MPR & UM Climatologist Dr. Mark Seeley below)

Fun with 90? String of near 90 degree days for the next week?

Breathing easier - Minnesota's air quality improves dramatically

"Schwitz Factor" plummets - Dew points crash over 20 degrees in 11 hours

"In fact the first half of this year has been warmer than any year since 1987."
MPR's Mark Seeley in this week's Weather Talk post

2012: Warmest year in 25 years so far in Minnesota

Hot enough for ya?

July 1st is halftime for the year of 2012. MPR & UM climate specialist Dr. Mark Seeley sends word to the weather lab this has been the warmest 1st half of any year since 1987.

Where were you in '87 when...

-The Twin Cities "Superstorm" dumped 11" of rain n the southwest metro

Source: NWS/MN Climate Working Group

-The Twins won the World Series

-Rudy Perpich as Governor of Minnesota

-The events depicted in the movie "Fargo" took place

-The Minnesota Vikings went 8-7 in the "replacement" season

-A gallon of gas cost .89 cents!

Warmest "year" on record too!

If you look back at the last year from July1st, 2011 though the end of this month, this is the warmest year on record by the measure of so called "Heating Degree Days" or HDD.

Again, an excerpt from Mark Seeley's Friday Weather Talk post.

Topic: New Record Low Annual Heating Degree Days for the Twin Cities

The Minnesota State Climatology Office noted this week as the annual Heating Degree Day (HDD) season (July 1 to June 30) comes to an end, that 2011-2012 brought a new record low number for HDD with only 5852. The previous record low value was 6611 recorded in 2005-2006. HDD are calculated using the mean daily temperature when it falls below a base of 65 degrees F. Thus on a day with a mean daily temperature value (maximum + minimum/2) of 50 F, the HDD value would be 15. These are accumulated daily as an index for energy use to heat homes and commercial buildings.

I further crunched some numbers for comparison.

5852 - new record low HDD for the past year

25% - savings in home heating costs vs. average
( 7823 HDD in 121 years of HDD records)

36% - savings vs. the coldest year (9082 HDD) on record in 1903-'04.

Bottom line? The last 12 months have been the warmest on record for Minnesota. The Twin Cities average temps have been comparable to living in Omaha, Nebraska for the past year!

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Get used to 90 degrees:

The overall weather pattern looks to hold for the next week. That means temps within a few degrees of 90 for the next week in the metro and most of southern Minnesota, with 80s up north.

Here's a preview.

Twin Cities quick look forecast:

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Duluth & North Shore quick look forecast:

Source: Duluth NWS

Dew points will remain in the comfy 50s through Friday, but will rise into the 60s this weekend.

PH

Happy "Meteorological Summer:" Warming trend; Arctic CO2 reaches 400ppm

Posted at 5:35 PM on May 31, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

MSP Quick look forecast: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Warmest spring on record? Preliminary numbers suggest spring 2012 may set record

400 ppm Arctic CO2 levels reach a milestone

"Meteorological Summer" kicks off Friday!

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season also starts Friday June 1st

70 degrees temps finally return to the 70s this weekend

Increasingly sunny Friday & Saturday

Sunday highest chance of stray showers

Fargo-Moorhead quick look forecast:

Source: Red River Valley NWS Grand Forks

Warmest spring on record in USA?

Here's the data from Capital Climate.

Source: Capital Climate

Welcome to "Meteorological Summer 2012"

If you've ever met one of us you know weather and climate geeks tend to...shall we say... "march to a different drummer?"

Small wonder we would invent our own "seasons" in spite of what the calendar says.

June 1st marks the start of "meteorological summer"...the months June through August.

This one actually makes sense. The solar calendar defines what we know as "astronomical summer" to be from the date of the summer solstice (June 20th this year) to the fall equinox. (September 22nd)

The months of June-August are actually the warmest 3 months of the year, so it makes sense to use them as our definition of "summer" when comparing records and climate.

Here are the monthly average temps for MSP Airport for the milder months.

May 59.1
June 68.8F
July 73.8F
August 71.2F
September 62.0F

The new 30-year MSP climate averages (1981-2010) bumped summer temps at MSP only about .5F, and overall summer temps showed little increase in Minnesota.

The much bigger increase is observed in the winter, where temps run just over 1 degree F above the previous 30 year average.

Source: NOAA

2012 Summer Forecast: Murky crystal ball

A lot of people ask me if there's any way to tell what this summer will be like. I wish I has a clear answer, but summer weather is harder to predict seasonally overall than winter.

Running the numbers on El Nino/La Nina cycles and other longer term "oscillations" seems to yield better forecast "skill" in winter than summer. I'm not sure we understand why that is, but it's fertile ground for future study.

You just can't tell how the summer will be in Minnesota based on previous winters, El Nino cycles etc. with any degree of credibility.

My (unscientific) hunch? We may continue the warmer than average trend of the past 12 months. Why?

-We've already banked 2 90 degree days in May. That's off to a higher than average start.

-Overall climate is shifting and favors increased heat waves and warmer than average episodes.

We average about 14 days at or above 90 degrees at MSP Airport in a summer. My guess is we'll top that again this year...closer to 17 to 20 days of 90 degree heat.

Will we hit 100? We hit 103 last June 7th in the metro... and my hunch is we'll do it again at some point this summer.

Forecast: Back to the 70s

We'll finally return to the 70s this weekend under increasingly sunny skies Friday & Saturday The stubborn cool air mass will give way to more sun and temps should respond to near 70 Friday, and into the 70s this weekend.

It will look and feel a bit more like the first weekend in June.

There si a slight chance of a stray shower, but I really think the highest chance will come Sunday, and especially from the Twin Cities north to Duluth and the North Shore.

Climate Milestone: Arctic CO2 reaches 400 ppm

This news from NOAA is worthy of note. Several sites n the arctic have recorded CO2 concentrations of 400ppm for the first time this spring.

That's a big deal, when you consider that atmospheric CO2 was about 280ppm before the industrial revolution.

The details and an excerpt from the NOAA report.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Barrow, Alaska, reached 400 parts per million (ppm) this spring, according to NOAA measurements, the first time a monthly average measurement for the greenhouse gas attained the 400 ppm mark in a remote location.

Carbon dioxide (CO2), emitted by fossil fuel combustion and other human activities, is the most significant greenhouse gas contributing to climate change.

"The northern sites in our monitoring network tell us what is coming soon to the globe as a whole," said Pieter Tans, an atmospheric scientist with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in Boulder, Colo. "We will likely see global average CO2 concentrations reach 400 ppm about 2016."

Carbon dioxide at six other remote northern sites in NOAA's international cooperative air sampling network also reached 400 ppm at least once this spring: at a second site in Alaska and others in Canada, Iceland, Finland, Norway, and an island in the North Pacific.

Measurements at all those remote sites reflect background levels of CO2, influenced by long-term human emissions around the world, but not directly by emissions from a nearby population center. At other more locally influenced sites in NOAA's network, such as Cape May, N.J., upwind cities influence CO2 concentrations, which have exceeded 400 ppm in spring for several years.

"Turning up the levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere is like turning up the dial on an electric blanket," said Jim Butler, director of the ESRL Global Monitoring Division. "You know it will keep getting warmer, but you don't know how quickly the temperature will rise, and it can take awhile for the blanket - or the atmosphere - to heat up."

Average global levels of CO2 were 390.4 ppm in 2011, according to NOAA measurements, and will likely reach 400 ppm about 2016. Before the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm.

Seeley: Warm wet May

Finally my MPR colleague and UM climate expert Mark Seeley has details on our warm, and record wet May in his excellent weekley "Weather Talk" post.

Here's a taste.

Topic: Preliminary Climate Summary for May 2012

In the simplest of terms May was warm and wet. Mean temperatures for the month were 2 to 5 degrees warmer than normal, with several days in the 90s F. The extremes for the month were 97 degrees F at Madison on the 18th, and just 24 degrees F at Brimson and Embarrass on the 16th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation just twice during the month.

Rainfall during May was abundant and above normal in all areas of the state except the northwest. Many individual climate observers saw their wettest ever May. Some of these included:

Pipestone with 11.06 inches
Windom with 10.83 inches
Lamberton with 9.87 inches
Hawley 6.72 inches
Floodwood 9.14 inches
New Ulm with 12.39 inches
Milaca with 10.46 inches
Sandstone 10.84 inches
Forest Lake with 11.29 inches
Chanhassen with 11.21 inches
Chaska with 10.69 inches

For many observers over half the days of May brought measurable rainfall (16-18 days), and there were many heavy thunderstorms. Overall, taking the average of all rainfall observations in the state it was the 4th wettest May of all time, averaging near 6 inches of rainfall. Only 1938, 1962, and 1908 were wetter on a statewide basis.

Another unusual feature of May was the frequency of strong winds. MSP Airport reported wind gusts over 30 mph on 19 days during the month, and six days with gusts over 40 mph. Some maximum wind gust during the month included: 58 mph at MSP; 62 mph at Alexandria; 69 mph at Rochester; and 74 mph at St Cloud.

PH

May Monsoon: Rapidly rising rivers & lakes; Drier into next week?

Posted at 8:45 AM on May 30, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

11"+ May rainfall at Forest Lake & Chanhassen in the metro

10.54" May rainfall at Pipestone, MN

9.34" May rainfall at MSP Airport

Wettest May on record at several Minnesota locations

2nd wettest May at MSP Airport & St. Cloud (8.76")

6th wettest May at Duluth (6.69")

5.59" rainfall in the past week at Aitkin

1 foot - Lake Minnetonka up nearly 1 foot in May

Rising rivers Rapid rises on Minnesota rivers & streams

89% of Minnesota soil moisture rated "adequate to surplus"

.38" GFS rainfall total next 16 days - drying out again?

Quick Look Forecast: Drier days ahead (Click image to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

"Maysoon"

Our May Monsoon appears ot be coming to an end.

Record rains over 11" have doused the drought in most of Minnesota this month. That's a remarkable turnaround, over 90% of Minnesota was in drought at one point this spring.

These rains have been notable in that the coverage has been widespread.

The Minnesota Climate Working Group has details:

Wet May 2012

May 2012 is going down in the record books as one of the wettest Mays on record for some places in central and northeast Minnesota. One of the highest May 2012 monthly rainfall totals found in the state so far is 11.29 inches at Forest Lake. Chanhassen isn't too far behind at 11.19 inches. Pipestone has 10.54 inches so far for May.

As of May 29, May 2012 is the second wettest May on record for both the Twin Cities and St. Cloud, and the sixth wettest in Duluth. The May records for all three cities are: 10.33 inches in May 1906 for the Twin Cities, 9.68 inches in May 1912 for St. Cloud and 7.99 in May 1879 for Duluth.

The Twin Cities International Airport has 9.34 inches so far in May 2012. Not only is this the second wettest May back to 1871, it is the eighth wettest month on record for any month of the year. The record for the wettest month of the year in the Twin Cities is 17.90 inches in July 1987. Normal May precipitation for the Twin Cities is 3.36 inches.

Not every site in Minnesota has seen the abundant rainfall. Precipitation totals in northwest Minnesota for May are below normal. For instance, Crookston in Northwest Minnesota has seen only 1.38 inches of rainfall for the month which is 1.29 inches below normal.

Normal precipitation for May in Minnesota ranges from around two inches in the far northwest, to around three-and-a-half inches in the southeast.

The rain has eased the drought situation across central and south central Minnesota, as well as the arrowhead. Where the heavy rains fell, rivers were on the increase and during the month of May the level of Lake Minnetonka rose about 1 foot. Basswood Lake along the Canadian border in Lake County rose four inches during the third week in May.

Rivers are on the rise as well, with some reaching minor flood stage, such as the South Fork Crow River near Mayer. The St. Croix River at Stillwater rose seven feet from May 24 to May 29.

Lake Minnetonka has responded with a 1 foot rise in May, and over 1 foot since mid-April.

Source: Minnehaha Creek Watershed District

Many Rivers have risen 3 to 7 feet in the past few days. You can see the latest river levels around Minnesota here.

The St. Croix is up 5 feet at St. Croix Falls in recent days.
Source: NOAA/NWS

Today's Minnesota Crop Report shows 89% of Minnesota soils now show "adequate to surplus" topsoil moisture!

Source: Minnesota Crop Report

Drying out?

It looks like somebody found the rain spigot, and finally turned it off.

The overall weather pattern looks much drier in the next week. The GFS is printing out under .25" for the metro into next week. The latest GFS runs pulled back on what looked like a potentially rainy start to next week in favor of high pressure holding a dry sky over Minnesota. We'll see.

Source: Iowa State University-Ames

The good news is we don't need any more rain in the short run, and it looks like drier skies will prevail into next week. Your lawn, farm field and garden will get a chance to dry out a bit.

Source: ISU

Enjoy our gradual warm up into the 70s by Friday, and into the weekend!

PH

Wettest May? Weekend severe risk; 97 Sunday? Grays Bay Dam open

Posted at 5:07 PM on May 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Record, Severe weather

8.18" rainfall at MSP Airport so far this May

2nd wettest May on record so far at MSP Airport

Wettest May on record for some metro & Minnesota locations
(More from Mark Seeley below)

Mixed weather bag Memorial Day Weekend - some rain, sun and heat

Hot sticky Sunday 90 degrees & humid (60s dew points)

Severe late Sunday? Severe storm risk late PM & evening into early Monday

Mixed Memorial Day: Rain early, some PM sun?

This "Bud's" for you? (no not the beer) - Dissipating Hurricane "Bud" may inject some moisture into by Minnesota Monday

>

"May-soon"

Welcome to the May Monsoon.

Another month, another record in Minnesota. When did "extreme" weather become "normal" weather in Minnesota?

According to my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley, this is already the wettest May on record at several Minnesota locations, and we still have a week to go.

It's the 2nd wettest May at MSP Airport with 8.18" so far. Another 2.16" is doable this month, even this weekend. That would make it the wettest May on record at MSP Airport.

Several additional locations arte in the top 5.

Here's an excerpt from Mark's earlier Updraft post.

With the frequency of heavy thunderstorms dominating the Minnesota landscape this month, some observers are reporting one of the wettest Mays in history. Currently on a statewide basis this May ranks among the top ten wettest in history. For some individual climate stations it is already among the top five, including:

Chanhassen 9.22 inches (wettest ever)
Chaska 8.53 inches (4th wettest)
Jordan 9.17 inches (3rd wettest)
MSP Airport 8.18 inches (2nd wettest)
Forest Lake 9.62 inches (wettest ever)
Windom 8.40 inches (2nd wettest)
Pipestone 8.29 inches (4th wettest)
New Ulm 8.16 inches (4th wettest)
Mora 8.56 inches (wettest ever)
Floodwood 7.32 inches (wettest ever)

Tonka up 5": Grays Bay Dam open for 1st time since Labor Day weekend

I've recorded nearly 4" of rain at the Huttner Weather Lab this week on the east end of Lake Minnetonka. It's no surprise that the lake is responding, and the water level is up 5" (.42 feet) since Wednesday according to the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District web site.

The Grays Bay Dam feeds Minnehaha Creek, and the dam has now been opened by MCWD (12CFS) for the first time since it was closed early last September.

Source: Minnehaha Creek Watershed District

Further downstream, Minnehaha Falls is back to life and roaring away these days. 3"+ rainfall pushed level of Minnehaha Creek about 3 feet higher this week, and the Falls look and sound great.

Source: USGS

This is a great weekend to visit Minnehaha Falls. Sea Salt anyone?

Mixed Weather bag: Pick your "sunny" spots this weekend

This will actually be a pretty typical Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota. Some thunder & rain, some sun, and even some heat.

Our active pattern will continue this weekend. Timing summer rain is one of the tougher forecasts we make. The models do a much better job with big, "stratiform" winter rain/snow events than with finicky, "convective" summertime thunderstorms.

That said, here's my best shot at picking your "sunny spots" this weekend.

Friday night: Scattered showers & T-Storms Low 57. Wind E 5-12 mph.

Saturday: Mixed clouds with scattered shower/T-Storm chances. Trending sunnier late PM & evening? High 78. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Choppy lakes.

Saturday Night: Clearing, warmer and more humid. Starting to feel like summer. Low near 66. Balmy south breeze 5-15 mph.

Sunday: Instant July. Best beach & lake day. Mostly sunny hazy, stinking hot & humid. Record hgh near 97! (Record is 95) Wind S 5-15 mph. Growing severe risk late PM.

Sunday Night: Severe storm risk. Heavy rainfall again possible. Low near 65.

Memorial Day: AM showers & T-Storms may linger. Chance for PM & evening sun? High 74. Wind NW 5-15 mph.

Severe weather: Keep the weather radio (and MPR) handy

There is a slight risk for a severe storm Saturday, but all the ingredients may come together late Sunday for severe storms in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

A cold front will cut into a hot, steamy air mass over Minnesota by late Sunday. Severe storms may rapidly erupt along the front as the "cap" breaks Sunday afternoon.

SPC has already placed a risk "bull's eye" over Minnesota for late Sunday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Of the 3 summer holiday weekends in Minnesota; you're "climatologically" most likely to get wet during Memorial Day Weekend. It's no big surprise that we'll see some ran this weekend, and maybe some severe weather.

We're now working into the peak time of year for severe weather in Minnesota. Severe weather frequency climbs rapidly in May, and peaks in June.

Is it any big surprise that we should see a few severe storms on Memorial Day weekend?

This "Bud's" for you!

As if another potent low jetting for Minnesota wasn't enough, how about a little "tropical moisture" with your thunderstorms?

Hurricane Bud reached Cat 3 this week. That's the earliest ever for the eastern Pacific according to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground.

Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall.

Source: NASA MODIS

The remnants of dissipating Hurricane Bud along the Mexican coast may get picked up in the upper flow ahead of our low pressure system, and "injected" into Minnesota by Sunday night and Monday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

The extra infusion of tropical moisture could enhance rainfall in Minnesota. It's relatively rare, but moisture from the tropical Pacific does occasionally get pumped into our storms, and this weekend could be one of those events. Sometimes the models "misunderestimate" the amount of additional moisture being pumped into this systems. If it does, there is a chance that we could see another bout of torrential rains linger into Memorial Day.

MPR (and former WCCO radio) meteorologist Bill Endersen will man the MPR weather lab this weekend and have updates as needed.

Stay tuned, and have a great weekend!

PH

Seeley: May showing wet to dry extremes

Posted at 6:00 AM on May 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

Minnesota WeatherTalk Newsletter for Friday, May 18, 2012
To: MPR's Morning Edition
From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate
Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk Newsletter for Friday, May 18, 2012
HEADLINES

-Very dry air this week
-A cold morning on May 16th
-NOAA CPC climate outlook
-Weekly Weather potpourri
-MPR listener question
-Almanac for May 18th
-Past weather
-Outlook

Topic: Very dry air this week

Following a wet first ten days of the month, May turned quite dry this week, with low dewpoints and high evaporation rates (0.25 to 0.35 inches on May 14). Montevideo (Chippewa County) reported some record-setting low daily humidity readings over May 12-16. Afternoon air temperature and relative humidity are noted for each day:
May 12 70 degrees F with RH of 7%
May 13 75 degrees F with RH of 11%
May 14 88 degrees F with RH of 4%
May 15 72 degrees F with RH of 12%
May 16 73 degrees F with RH of 14%

These humidity readings at Montevideo were the equivalent of those at Tucson, Arizona this week. Many Minnesota citizens were using moisturizing creams and chapstick.

Topic: Cold morning on May 16th

After a very warm Monday this week (afternoon temperatures ranged from 86 F to 90 F in western Minnesota), Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on Wednesday morning (May 16) with a reading of 24 degrees F at Embarrass, the first time this month that the state has reported the coldest reading. Many observers reported overnight lows in the 20s F on May 16th including 28 degrees F at Warroad, Cook, Hibbing, Bigfork, Ely, Grand Marais, and Kabetogama, 27 degrees F at Orr,Silver Bay, and Crane Lake, and 26 degrees F at International Falls. These overnight readings represent new record lows for May 16th at Kabetogama and Orr, and ties the record low for Crane Lake.

Topic: NOAA CPC Climate Outlook

On Thursday, May 17, NOAA-Climate Prediction Center release a new climate outlook for June through August. The outlook suggests equal chances for warmer or colder than normal temperature conditions over the summer in Minnesota. It also suggests equal chances for a wetter or drier than normal summer.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The May 16th report from the Amundsen-Scott Weather Station at the South Pole (Antarctica) was -77 degrees F with an east wind of 10-15 mph and a windchill of -114 degrees F.

The NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL was issuing advisories this week on the first Tropical Storm of the 2012 season in the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Aletta was generating winds of 40 mph and sea waves of 12 feet as it moved westward well off the coast of Mexico. It is expected to dissipate over the next several days.

Scientists from the University of Utah and Harvard University have developed a new way to estimate carbon dioxide emissions based on measured pattern detection in the atmosphere. This technique may be further refined to be used as a compliance validation measurement system should an international treaty ever be invoked that forces reduction in carbon dioxide emissions over specified periods of time. You can read more about their work at....

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120514152950.htm

MPR listener question: How much does a large thunderstorm cloud weigh? It must contain a lot of water.

Answer: Thomas Schlatter, a NOAA scientist and contributor to Weatherwise magazine addressed this question in a past issue. Of course the answer is highly dependent on cloud volume. But consider a cumulus cloud with a volume of one cubic mile (1 mile wide, 1 mile long, and 1 mile deep) and a water content of 1 gram/cubic meter. This would calculate to a weight of about 9 million pounds (nearly 1.1 million gallons). That's quite a load to remain suspended in the atmosphere, but of course it does, primarily because of the droplet size and the updraft winds that hold these water droplets aloft until they reach a critical mass.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 18th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 18th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 91 degrees F in 1911; lowest daily maximum temperature of 45 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily minimum temperature of 27 F in 1915; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 F in 1911; record precipitation of 1.57 inches in 1892; record 3.0 inches of snowfall in 1915.

Average dew point for May 18th is 46 degrees F, with a maximum of 72 degrees F in 1998 and a minimum of 19 degrees F in 2002.

All-time state records for May 18th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 101 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) and Pipestone (Pipestone County) in 1934; the state record low temperature for this date is 16 degrees F at the Duluth Experimental Farm (St Louis County) in 1924. State record precipitation for this date is 5.01 inches at Lanesboro (Fillmore County) in 2000; and state record snowfall for this date is 3.0 inches at Minneapolis (Hennepin County) in 1915.

Past Weather Features:

May of 1892 was one of the wettest in Twin Cities history. It rained everyday from 13th to the 21st (totaling nearly 4 inches). Farmers were late in planting crops that year because it rained on 18 days during the month. Many observers reported 6-8 inches of rainfall for the month, and Northfield reported nearly 10 inches.

May 18, 1915 brought cold and snow to many places in the state. Park Rapids and Caledonia observers reported 1 inch of snowfall, while Taylors Falls reported 1.5 inches. In Minneapolis an observer recorded 3 inches of snowfall, still a record for the date.

About 8:30 pm on May 18, 1918 an F-2 tornado (winds 113-157 mph) moved 8 miles across the rural landscape of Big Stone County in western Minnesota. It damaged buildings on 30 farms, but caused no injuries.

May 17-18, 1968 brought snow to many northern Minnesota communities, in one of the latest spring snow storms on record. Duluth reported 3.6 inches, Grand Rapids 3.0 inches, and Mahnomen 2.0 inches. As far west as Milan (Chippewa County) reported 0.5 inches. Temperatures warmed into the 50s and 60s F the next day so the snow was very short-lived.

May 18, 2000 brought heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding to many southern Minnesota communities. Jackson, St Peter, Wells, Grand Meadow, Hokah, Preston, Rushford, and Rochester measured over 4 inches of rain. Huge drifts of hail stones piled up near Mankato and there was reported crop damage in many areas. Many roads were closed, one due to a mud slide in Winona County.

Most recently on May 18, 2002 a hard freeze visited many northern Minnesota communities. Many areas saw morning lows in the 20s F, while Tower reported just 18 degrees F and Embarrass was the coldest with 17 degrees F.

USA: Warmest year on record so far; Season's 1st 90 Friday?

Posted at 8:39 AM on May 16, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Tornadoes

Quick look forecast Today-Sunday: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

+5.4 degrees so far in 2012 in the USA

Warmest January-April period on record since 1895 (Source NOAA)

27 years since the last "cooler than average" month globally

MPR News/KARE11 storm safety tips

24 degrees in Embarrass Wednesday morning

90 degrees in western Minnesota (and possibly the metro) Friday PM

2012: Warmest on record so far for USA:

NOAA's April State of the Climate report highights the warmest year on record to date (January-April) for the USA. Some highlights from NOAA.

•The contiguous United States mean temperature during January-April was 7.4°C (45.4°F), which is 3.0°C (5.4°F) above the long-term average and the warmest such period since national records began in 1895.

•The contiguous United States had a mean temperature of 13.2°C (55.7°F) in April 2012, which was 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 20th century average, resulting in the third warmest April since national records began in 1895.

•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2012 was 14.35°C (57.87°F), which is 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.08°C (0.14°F). The global temperature departure from the 20th century average and the monthly rank were the highest since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Niñas in 2010.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

Warm Front Ahead: A Shot at 90 Friday?

Today's free AC will be pushed north by an approaching warm front tomorrow. There could be a stray thunderstorm tomorrow as the front pushes in.

By Friday, the front lifts north of the metro, and temps will soar.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Highs should easily make the 90s in south & western Minnesota, with a shot at the season's 1st 90 in the metro around 4-5pm Friday afternoon.

Source: Iowa State University

Saturday night thunder?

The weekend appears to be coming into better focus. After a steamy Friday/Saturday, a cold front marching east from the Dakotas looks to trigger a wave of (possibly heavy) showers & T-Storms Saturday night into Sunday AM.

Some 1"+ rainfall totals could fall, especially north of the metro. A few of the storms could reach severe limits, but so far SPC has not placed Minnesota in a "risk area" Saturday night.

Storm Ready: MPR News/KARE11team up for severe storm safety

It's been great working with Belinda Jensen and being part of the excellent reporting from the combined MPR/KARE 11 News teams the past few weeks on the "Storm Ready?" series.

Bel & I put together a few safety tips to remind us all to be "proactive" on severe weather days in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

After talking with UM tornado researcher Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, it's clear more than ever that it really is a question of when, and not if a strong, violent EF3+ tornado will tear a path through the metro again.

Kenny has run numbers that strongly suggest a 1965-style outbreak should occur in the metro every 40 to 50 years. The May 6, 1965 outbreak was 47 years ago.

The myth that tornadoes don't hit urban areas is just that, a myth. Last year's North Minneapolis tornado reminded us of that fact. That twister was a borderline EF1-EF2 with winds of 100-125mph.

It's hard to imagine the whole different level of devastation and EF3-EF4 tornado with wind speeds approaching 200mph will do when it hits the metro.

"Optimism Bias" is the thing we worry about most in the Weather lab, and at NWS offices around the country. "It can't happen here, to me" were the words of many people in Joplin, Missouri before last May's twister. (The Joplin tornado occurred the same day as the North Minneapolis tornado)

Taking just a minute on a beautiful day like today to prepare for that day may save your life.

PH

May begins with severe weather threat

Posted at 6:37 AM on May 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Thunderstorms

Turning the calendar to May seems to coincide with the forecast of warmer temperatures, rising dew points and the threat for strong thunderstorms in Minnesota and the upper Midwest.

An opening act of showers and thunderstorms developed over central Minnesota overnight signaling the growing potential for a juiced up atmosphere. As low level moisture converges over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Source: NOAA SPC

We expect some sunshine and heating to destabilize the atmosphere today. Temperatures could top 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. Southerly winds will gust to over 25 mph at times.

Visible satellite image shortly after daybreak.
Source:NOAA through College of Dupage

Experimental RUC forecast of surface temperatures and winds at 6PM CDT.
Source; NOAA/NWS

The trend has shown the main event is most likely to occur later this afternoon and tonight. Stay attentive to changing weather and the posting of severe weather watches and warnings.

Remember a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when there is the high potential for hail one inch or greater in diameter and damaging winds on the order of 60 mph or greater. When a Tornado Watch is posted you need to remain particularly attentive to warnings. Have multiple sources for weather information, including a NOAA Weather Radio.

This experimental thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the probability of thunderstorms developing between 3pm CDT and 7pm CDT.

In the Twin Cities, we closed out April with temperatures averaging two and half degrees above normal. Precipitation at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International airport totaled 3.04 inches, more than a third of an inch above normal.

--Craig Edwards

Time to eat into the moisture deficit

Posted at 3:41 PM on April 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Drought, Rainfall, Storms, Thunderstorms

Since late July Mother Nature has cheated Minnesota on moisture. We could hardly buy a snow storm this past winter. But perhaps we are on the brink of cutting into the deficit in southern Minnesota. Moisture hasn't been as scarce this month.

The precipitation totals from far northwest to south range from about an inch and a half to slightly more than three inches. A beneficial precipitation event occurred in Itasca and St. Louis Counties as a combination of snow and rain fell in mid April -- yet lake levels remain low.

Precipitation image for April 16th provide by NOAA

Some locations in central and southern Minnesota tallied more than a half of an inch of moisture in the past week. Here's a look at the moisture departure from early August to late April:

Source: Minnesota Climatological Working Group

Warmer temperatures are seen for the middle of the work week and those temps, along with increasing dew points, will create an environment favorable for thunderstorms. The first round of storms enters the weather scene on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night.

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms, producing hail and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

There was enough cloud cover extending into the afternoon hours to hold the temperatures in the lower 60s in east central Minnesota.

As anticipated, NOAA released an update of the temperature outlook for the month of May today.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

A warm front may set up over central Minnesota on Wednesday. Warm fronts are known for spawning some good rainfall amounts, particularly overnight. We'll see.

--Craig Edwards

Severe Weather Awareness, part two

Posted at 6:27 AM on April 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather

On Saturday afternoon I was monitoring the weather radar and the severe storm advancing toward St. Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals were playing the Brewers at Busch Stadium. An efficiently played ball game ended prior to the storm reaching the jammed ball park.

The strong storm revealed sufficient intensity to trigger a severe thunderstorm warning for the local area with hail reported greater than two and a half inches in diameter. The radar algorithm for the potential hail size was shown as greater than four inches on one vertical volume scan.

As the storm approached downtown St. Louis there were indications on Doppler radar of very strong winds and a tornado warning was eventually issued. Ultimately this became a killer storm with winds estimated near 70 mph. A hospitality tent was blown down and a serious weather calamity occurred. Here's a statement included in a story I spotted on the the internet. Deputy Fire Chief John Altmann cautioned that patrons need to understand a tent is not a safe place to be in bad weather."Tents are temporary structures."

Severe weather reports to SPC on Saturday, April 28th.

We are approaching peak severe weather season. At the same time we are moving into the warmer days of spring and outdoor activities, including graduation events and celebrations. Folks need to be aware of potential severe weather and have some plan in place for seeking sufficient shelter.

I remember attending a graduation party when I was 18 years old. The sirens were going off and I assisted in moving a dozen or so people into a crawl space. A brave few watched the sky.

The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk (35%) of severe weather in our neck of the woods on Tuesday.

Source: NOAA SPC

For more information on the background of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather risk probabilities you can review at this link from SPC.

A trend toward milder, warmer temperatures begins today and lasts through most of the week.

Tuesday's mid afternoon temperatures.
Source: Twisterdata.com

A warm front, convergence zone, will be positioned over Minnesota on Wednesday. This will result in the continued potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to May, here's the Climate Prediction Centers outlook issued earlier this month.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

This outlook could be refreshed, updated today.

As we close out April, 2012 we will find the statistics documenting another month of above normal temperatures. About two and half degrees above normal in the Twin Cities.

CE

March 2012: Warmest on record in USA, but "coolest" globally in 13 years

Posted at 12:01 PM on April 18, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

There's an old saying in the weather biz. "All weather is local"

That was clearly demonstrated in March 2012.

While the USA enjoyed "Springtime Indian Summer" with the warmest March ever recorded, much of the rest of the globe was cool in March.

The result? the 16th warmest march on record globally, but the "coolest" March in 13 years...since 1999.

The details here from NOAA.

Here are some highlights:

Source: NOAA/NCDC

"March global temperatures were coolest since 1999

•The United States also experienced its warmest March, with more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken and the average temperature of the lower 48 states being 51.1°F, 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March."

Source: NOAA/NCDC

PH

Seeley's Friday Weather Talk: Freeze hit hard this week

Posted at 9:52 AM on April 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

Here are some highlights form Mark's Friday Weather Talk post.

You can read the full post here.

Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, April 13, 2012
To: MPR's Morning Edition
From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate
Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, April 13, 2012
HEADLINES

-Hard freeze this week
-Soils still dry
-Weekly Weather potpourri
-MPR listener question
-Almanac for April 13th
-Word of the Week
-Past weather
-Outlook

Topic: Hard freeze this week

Several areas of the state reported morning lows in the teens and twenties F this week, the coldest temperatures since March 9th for many communities. The early spring advancement in vegetative growth had many concerned for plant damage, notably to flowers, trees, and shrubs which had already budded out or bloomed. It remains to be seen how many of the state's apple orchards were adversely affected by the freezing temperatures. Growers are cautiously optimistic that damage to orchards won't be extreme. Some of the minimum temperature observations included: 16 degrees F at Wadena, Windom, and Itasca State Park; 15 degrees F at Babbitt; 14 degrees F at Bemidji, Hallock, and Embarrass; and 13 degrees F at Park Rapids, lowest in the 48 contiguous states on April 11th. You can read more about the low temperatures on our web site at:

http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/hard_freeze_120410.htm

Topic: Mid-April and still soils are very dry

With field working season underway, and some of the state's 2012 crops already in the ground many Minnesota farmers are waiting for rain to replenish the dry soils that were a carryover from last year. The precipitation deficiency reported by some climate observers is very significant. There are many areas of the state that have reported precipitation totals since last August (a period of 8.5 months) that are more than 7 inches behind normal values for the period. Some of these locations are in the list below, showing how the deficiency for this 8.5 month period ranks historically.

Location; Precipitation Total; Departure from Normal; Historical Rank
(8/1/2011-4/11/2012); (8/1/2011-4/11/2012);

Lamberton; 5.35 inches; -7.51 inches; Driest of record
Winnebago; 8.03 inches; -7.17 inches; Driest of record
Marshall; 4.66 inches; -8.69 inches; 2nd Driest
Granite Falls; 4.89 inches; -7.82 inches; 3rd Driest
St James; 6.35 inches; -7.72 inches; 4th Driest
Canby; 3.97 inches; -8.70 inches; 5th Driest
Zumbrota; 8.96 inches; -7.54 inches; 7th Driest

So far in April, rainfall has been lacking or totally absent in many areas of the state. Rainfall normals for April range typically from 1.50 to 3.00 inches. MSP International Airport in the Twin Cities is one of the few places in the southern half of the state that has received over 0.50 inches so far this month (0.63 inches). In the north some areas have received more, for example 0.75 inches at Orr and 0.70 inches at Cook. Some significant showers are expected this weekend. In fact, on Friday morning some areas of southern Minnesota had already received a half to one inch of rainfall. But the outlook for the remainder of April does not favor abundant rainfall in the state with the possible exception of southeastern counties. So by the end of April we may see these precipitation deficits increase even more.

Incredible March caps off warmest 12 months on record in USA

Posted at 12:02 PM on April 11, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

Our incredible March warmth capped off the warmest 12 months ever recorded in the USA! Details from NOAA:

"•The previous 12-month period (April-March), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The 12-month running average temperature was 55.4°F, which is 2.6°F above the 20th century average."

Check out this cool NOAA animation which shows the USA peppered with 15,000 temperature records in March.

Source: NOAA

More from NOAA here on the incredible month of March in the USA.

U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken

"First quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster"

Note: The March 2012 Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding the unprecedented early 2012 temperatures."

Source: NOAA

Heating Degree Day departure shows warmth centered on Minnesota and the Upper Miswest this winter.
Source: NOAA

•The cold season, which is defined as October 2011 through March 2012 and an important period for national heating needs, was second warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. with a nationally-averaged temperature 3.8°F above average. Only the cold season of 1999-2000 was warmer. Twenty-one states across the Midwest and Northeast, areas of the country with high annual heating demands, were record warm for the six-month period.

PH

Unprecedented: Minnesota's warmest month ever vs. average?

Posted at 9:15 AM on March 27, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Record

+16.7 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport through March 26th

+15.1 degrees - warmest month ever vs. average in January 2006
(Looking at MN Climate Working Group data)

Warmest month ever vs. average? March 2012 is on pace to be the warmest month ever vs. average temp in 121 years of data

Windy Tuesday: Wind advisories flying for gusts to 40 mph today

80 by Sunday? Another May-June weekend ahead

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Uncharted Waters: We're #1?

We've sliced and diced our unreal (okay surreal) March "heat wave" a hundred different ways over the past two weeks. Here's one more...and try this on for a while.

This may end up as the warmest month ever compared to average at MSP Airport!

Through Monday March temperatures are running +16.7 degrees at MSP Airport according to the Twin Cities NWS.

Source: NWS

So far this March our average monthly temp at MSP is 48.3 degrees.

If we hold near that level through Saturday (quite possible) we could close out the month at or above 15.1 degrees above average for March.

If you look at records for the 12 months of the year in the metro...the warmest month ever compared to average was January 2006, when temps soared to +15.1 degrees vs. average.

If we sustain that average, March 2012 could be the warmest month ever when compared to average in the past 121 years of data for the Twin Cities.

We'll need to see where we end up this week, and wait for the climate gurus at MN Climate Working Group to crunch those numbers to confirm.

But this March is not just unreal, it may be the warmest month ever vs. average in Minnesota history.

More records fall:

I could bore you to death with the dozens of ways this month is blasting out records, but here are a select few that I think tell the story best.
(Courtesy of Twin Cities NWS)

Record Setting Weather For Temps and Moisture...Updated March 26th

"How unusual has the weather been across our area during mid-March? Here is a breakdown of the record conditions that have been noted from March 10th to present.

These charts show the high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities (measured at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport), St. Cloud, and Eau Claire, as well as the record temperatures. Several new temperature records have been set since March 10th, when the unprecedented warm up began."

Source: NWS

Several Midwestern Cities are experiencing their warmest March on record including Milwaukee, Chicago, & St. Louis.

Is this the "new normal?"

Scientific American has a great piece on why some think this may be the new normal when it comes to our warming climate.

As we continue to melt critical ice sheets (48 cubic miles from the Greenland Ice sheet per year since the 1990s!)The lottery odds of the future may continue to favor extreme warmth such as we've seen this month.

By Nina Chestney

LONDON (Reuters) - "The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London."

Changeable week ahead:

Today's winds will bring a warm up and a brief run at 70 (we'll spend most of the day in the 60s), followed by a cool front that will drop highs back into the 50s Wednesday & Thursday.

Tuesday: Wind advsiory - SW gusts to 40 mph+ possible. High near 70, temps falling through the 60s late PM.

Wednesday: Bright sun. Cooler & less wind. High 54.

Thursday: Frosty start? Upper 30s early. Clouds & rain chances increase late PM & evening. High near 56.

Source: ISU

Friday: AM showers ending PM. High near 60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny & milder breezes. High near 70.

Sunday April 1st: Sunny breezy warm & humid?? High near 82.
(No foolin')

Source: ISU

Enjoy!

PH

Warmest year ever so far in Milwaukee & Madison; Wind farms visible on doppler

Posted at 5:14 PM on March 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

2012 is the warmest year ever so far for Milwaukee & Madison

Hottest March temps ever recorded in Milwaukee, Detroit, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland

70s likely again Friday & Saturday in southern Minnesota & the metro

Chance of frost next Thursday?

Source: NWS Milwaukee

Warmest year ever so far in Wisconsin!

The surreal start to 2012 continues. Madison and Milwaukee are off and running on the warmest start ever this year.

Milwaukee is a full 2 degrees warmer than the warmest year on record so far in 2012!

Details from the Milwaukee NWS:

Source: NWS Milwaukee

Source: NWS Milwaukee

Source: NWS Milwaukee

Source: NWS Milwaukee

Unprecedented March heat wave continues to rewrite record books:

How out of whack is the March heat wave? The Detroit NWS is going to start issuing frost advisories....in spring!

More from the Detroit NWS:

Unprecedented Warm March Weather and the Possible Negative Impacts to Michigan
While it is common to talk about extreme weather events, there is usually a comparable weather event in the record books. The same cannot be said about the current warm stretch for its strength, length and timing so early in the spring season. This current extreme weather event truly has never happened in recorded history in Southeast Michigan!

"While many residents are enjoying the long period of record warm weather, Southeast Michigan's agricultural interests will be bracing for potentially severe negative impacts. The average last freeze for most locations in Southeast Michigan is not until late April. Over 90% of Aprils for all locations in Southeast Michigan have a hard freeze, a temperature of 28 degrees or lower, sometime during the month.

The unprecedented stretch of warm March weather will continue for the rest of the week. This stretch of warm weather comes on the heels of Detroit's 5th warmest winter on record, the 12th warmest Autumn, and a summer which featured July as the hottest month ever recorded in Detroit. In fact, the jet stream has been displaced well north of its typical position since the middle of last year. Now, with none of the typical ice on the Great Lakes to insulate Michigan from the effects of this unusually warm spring, record warmth has been allowed to surge into the state like never before."

Source: Detroit NWS

Doppler tracking green energy:

Here's a great exapmle of how sensitive doppler is...and how tall some of those wind turbines are!

Again, the Milwaukee NWS has details:

Area Wind Farms Showing Up Clearly On Radar

"Atmospheric conditions, along with a favorable wind direction, has resulted in the area wind farms showing up clearly on the radar display overnight (see image below.) Given the low level inversion that was in place, and the superrefraction of the radar beam that was likely occurring, the radar energy was intercepting the large blades of the wind turbines. See this related web page about how our radar "sees" these wind farms. The returned energy is plotted on the display and looks just like precipitation, or even thunderstorms. Also, due to the easterly flow, the motion of the wind turbine blades is generally parallel to the radar beam, maximizing the radars ability to interpret their motion. The radar has the ability to remove "targets" that aren't moving (something we call clutter suppression.) This is why you generally won't see the interference from the terrain surrounding the radar. But, the wind turbines are moving and therefore the radar assumes they are real precipitation targets."

Source: Milwuakee NWS

Sunnier & Milder:

Our stubborn low pressure system is finally beginning to pull away toi the east Friday. The system has brought us several grey days with some welcome rain.

Skies will begin to clear Friday and sunshine should return fully for Saturday.

Temps will respond into the 70s.

A cool front will slide south Sunday, and you may notice the cooler breezes from the east. The cooling trend will continue next week. We could see a shot of frost by next Thursday morning in the metro suburbs!

Source: ISU

Enjoy another shot of May in March!

PH

Brief wintery rerun today; New signs point to a warm spring ahead!

Posted at 8:45 AM on March 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

60 degrees at MSP Airport Tuesday!

+24 degrees vs. average

+2.2 degrees vs. average so far in March

10th straight month warmer than average in Minnesota?

Cold front today brings falling temps

Rain and snow showers today behind the front

60s return this weekend?

Warm spring ahead?

Cold Front today!

Our April flirtation is history, at least for a couple of days.

A cold front is sliding southeast today, and temps are dropping behind the front. Look for scattered rain and snow showers as temps fall today back into the 30s in most areas by later today.

Signs of a warm (and wet) spring?

Many signs point to a warm and potentially wet spring for Minnesota. That could be just what the doctor ordered for easing the drought which developed rapidly last fall.

Here are a few of the meteorological tea leaves that point to a mild, potentially wet spring.

1) Mild March looks almost certain now.

There's every reason to believe the mild forecasts will pan out for March at this point. Looking at the maps, it's as if something is "broken" compared to what we would usually expect in March in Minnesota. The jet stream is well north into Canada, when it is usually howling overhead this time of year delivering one snow storm after another.

Tuesday's and today's above average warmth means we're already running a good +2 degrees vs. average in the metro so far in March.

The overall weather pattern for the next 16 days looks unseasonably mild. The GFS for example is cranking out temps roughly +15 degrees vs. average overall the next two weeks. Medium range forecast models may have difficulty with pinpointing individual storms a week or two out, but they're usually much better with overall temperatures trends.

GFS Model cranks out unseasonably mild temps and rainfall the next 16 days!

It looks like March will be the 10th straight month above average in Minnesota, dating back to last June.

2) The relative lack of snow cover now in southern Minnesota, and the shrinking snow pack up north increase the odds of a warm month.

We melted 2"+ of snow Tuesday in Minnesota. All signs say the melt will resume/continue by this weekend.

Without snow, nearly all of the sun's energy goes into warming the air instead of meting snow. Any southerly winds can readily blow in warmer air from Iowa and southern Minnesota now.

That means temps can run a good 10-15 degrees warmer over bare ground than on dwindling snow covered areas.

3) Climate "drivers" favor a milder spring.

Assuming a mild March, we're 1/3 of the way toward a mild "meteorological spring."
(Mar-May)

Several factors point to odds of a milder spring than last year in Minnesota.

-Fading La Nina: Last spring featured a strong La Nina which can favor cooler spring in Minnesota. This year La Nina is fading/gone.

More red and less blue means warming Pacific ocean temps

-AO still positive: The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation gave us a mild winter. It appears it may linger overall this spring.

-NOAA outlooks favor a warm spring for Minnesota and the eastern USA.

A warm dry spring in Minnesota would be bad news for Minnesota's drought. At least in March, jet stream pattern seem to favor higher than average rainfall, and that could mean several rainy/thundery episodes this month and potentially this spring.

The GFS is still hinting now (for several runs) at rainfall exceeding 2" for much of southern Minnesota in the next 16 days.

That would be a good start to washing snow cover and rainfall runoff into our woefully low lakes and rivers this spring.

Let's see what unfolds this spring, but tat this point...it looks like an early and warm spring in Minnesota this year!

PH

Winterlike weekend, followed by a taste of spring

Posted at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Springtime, Tornadoes, Winter 2011-12

We are closing out the books on one of the warmest meteorological winters on record. For the months of December, January and February the Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls was nine degrees warmer than the new normal.

International Falls tallied three days of 20 below zero or colder for overnight minimums. Their coldest morning was 25 below zero on January 19th. That's also the coldest morning experienced in the Twin Cities when the mercury dropped to minus 11 at the International Airport.

On only two days during the winter did the temperature fail to climb above zero in International Falls. *there are two days in February when temperatures were not recorded. The high of 46 degrees on January 5th in the Falls broke the old record of 36 degrees set in 1984.

In the Twin Cities there were no recorded days of below zero in December or February at the big Airport.

Here's a statement from the NWS Grand Forks Office..... Based on the early information the meteorological winter months of December 2011 through February 2012 was the warmest for the Fargo Area, and in the top ten for the Grand Forks Area.

Snowfall has been sparse in the northern end of the Red River Valley. That's good news for the spring flood threat.

From the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the snow depth as of Thursday morning.

This morning Grand Forks reported a snow depth of 5 inches with 7 inches on the ground at Fargo. Another inch or two of snow is possible in the Red River Valley in the next couple of days.

An area of snow was beginning to show up on radar in southwest Minnesota late this afternoon.

Here's a snapshot from 415pm. Some of the snow may not have been reaching the ground.

Checking out the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, the snow is likely to continue to expand and move northeast this evening. A fresh coating of around an inch of snow is possible in the metro.

HRRR simulated radar for 9pm.

After seasonal temperatures this weekend, the models are continuing to trend towards a significant moderation. Looking out to the eight to fourteen day forecast there is high confidence in above normal temperatures as posted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center;

I've been reading the stories about the nighttime tornadoes that struck Missiouri and Illinois earlier this week. The EF4 tornado that devasted Harrisburg, Illinois touched down shortly before 5am, under the cover of darkness.

One of the comments listed that an emergency official heard the outdoor siren was able to move quickly to shelter. People need to have an indoor weather alert radio. Do me a favor and get one for your home this season.

Another threat of dangerous storms is in the weather picture for the Ohio Valley on Friday. Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather potential as they see it this afternoon for Friday afternoon.

Enjoy the snow this weekend. The melt begins Monday. Highs well into the 40s next week. Some readings approaching 60 degrees are possible in southwest Minnesota.
CE

Long range outlooks, a roll of the dice

Posted at 6:10 AM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Climate, Winter, Winter 2011-12

We kept waiting for the other boot to drop and an old fashion Minnesota winter to beat us down. Here we are on the first day of meteorological spring and the outlook calls for rather mild conditions to continue in our neck of the woods.

NOAA's Winter Outlook released November 2011 indicated a fairly high confidence level of colder than normal temperatures. NOAA's winter outlook was similar to that made by others, including the Farmers Almanac.

Top Ten Warmest Meteorological Winters for the Twin Cities.

Rank Year Average Temperature (F)

1 1877-1878 29.0

2 1930-1931 26.9

3 2001-2002 26.8

4 2011-2012 26.2
5 1997-1998 25.9

6 1986-1987 25.8

7 1982-1983 24.0

8 1991-1992 23.5

9 1943-1944 23.5

10 1920-1921 23.2

Snowstorm totals provided by the National Weather Service Duluth, Whiteout conditions hammered Duluth to Silver Bay on Wednesday.

A daily record of 9.7 inches of snow was measured at Duluth on February 29th. The peak wind gust was 56 mph.

Check out the snowfall reports for central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin at the Chanhassen NWS web link.

Much needed moisture fell with this major storm. Here's a graphic of the cooperative observers reports. Precipitation in northeast Minnesota occurred after these observations were posted on Wednesday.

There was a phrase used in the weather lab that was often quoted when looking ahead, "the trend is your friend." Here's a look at NOAA's temperature outlook for March, favoring above normal tempratures. First order of business is to start the snow melt.

But in the meantime, get out this weekend and knock yourself out with playing in the snow. Temperatures should be seasonal. No big snows are see for Minnesota the next couple of days.

Have you heard about the warm-up coming? See this temperature forecast from the GFS model for Tuesday afternoon.

CE

Snowy pattern ahead? March/April critical for 2012 drought prospects

Posted at 6:12 PM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Drought, La Nina, Spring 2012, Winter 2011-12

Week of February 20th GFS hinting at possible snow systems for Minnesota

1.51" GFS liquid output for MSP week of Feb 20th

14.9" season snowfall so far at MSP

16.5" average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season at MSP

96.2% of Minnesota now in "moderate" to "severe" drought!

March snowfall potential critical for easing "hydrologic" drought

April rainfall potential critical for easing "agricultural" drought

Snowy pattern change ahead?

It's too early to be definitive on this, but there are some encouraging signs for Minnesotans who want snow. Our desert dry winter doldrums may be about the end.

The upper air pattern is showing signs of becoming more "chaotic" in the next two weeks. Translation? We may finally get some snow storms passing in or near Minnesota.

Much of the USA has been mired in a persistent west-northwest upper air flow pattern this winter. This has brought mild air, and also little moisture.

The GFS model is advertising a more west-southwest flow starting the week of February 20th. This could steer a series of Pacific storms into the Midwest, and some of them may actually dip into the southern Plains and gulp down some significant moisture before dumping it as snowfall on Minnesota.

GFS hints at a possible "Panhandle Hook" snow storm around February 21st?

While it's still way too early to credibly support these numbers, The 12Z GFS cranked out 1.5" of "liquid" precip the week of February 20th from 2 different storm systems. If that verified and fell as all snow, it could add up to 10" to 15"+ somewhere in Minnesota that week.

We'll see. Trying to credibly nail storm systems that far in advance is futile. But the take away is this; The overall upper air pattern is changing and there could be a growing chance of snowfall the week of February 20th.

Stay tuned!

2012: Year of the Texas-sized "mega-drought" in Minnesota?

As we look ahead toward spring, Minnesota's growing drought looms as the biggest weather story and concern of 2012.

A full 96.2% of Minnesota is classified in "moderate" or "severe" drought in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.

The water tap shut off late last summer in Minnesota, and last fall was the driest on record for many locations. Soils heading into the freeze were powder dry, and will remain that way into the spring thaw.

Weather patterns the rest of this winter into this spring will be critical in determining if this will become one of the worst droughts in Minnesota history, or a significant drought that is eased by above average spring precipitation.

Here are the variable at play the next 3 months.

Late February & March:

The second half of February and the month of March may determine how critical Minnesota's "hydrologic" drought is going into the summer of 2012.

We're living through the 2nd lowest snowfall season to date for much of southern Minnesota. Snowfall at MSP Airport is only 14.9" so far, that's a good month in most years and a good storm last year!

Northern Minnesota has seen better snowfall totals, but most areas are still way below average for the season.

The average snowfall for the remainder of the snow season is 16.5" in the metro and southern Minnesota. We'll need average to much above average snowfall between now and April to provide enough snow melt runoff to feed Minnesota's rivers & lakes, which are at very low levels.

This runoff is critical for easing the "hydrologic" component of drought (rivers, ponds, lakes etc.) but doesn't help much with the "agricultural" or "soils" component since the ground is still frozen and most runoff from snow melt won't soak in.

That's where April weather comes in to play.

April & May:

Average rainfall for April is about 2.3" for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. We will need every drop this spring and significantly more if we are going to stave off a major drought in 2012.

The ground thaws in April. April rainfall soaks into soils, and will recharge them for the growing season. We'll need above average rainfall in April & May to ease drought conditions in Minnesota. Average rainfall won't do this year. A good 4" to 8" of spring rains is what we need to prevent serious drought as we head into the summer of 2012.

Will fading La Nina help?

CPC is out today with news that La Nina is close to being history in the tropical Pacific.

This could possibly be good news for a wetter spring in Minnesota. If "ENSO neutral" conditions evolve we could see a return to more "normal" spring weather patterns in the Midwest.

At this point (in a drought) any pattern change is likely to lead to wetter conditions.

Weather fingers & toes crossed on that one.

Stay tuned!

Arctic air pushes south:

A few flurries may accompany the arctic front surging south into early Friday. Get ready for a bracing day Friday, with wind chills at or below zero in most of Minnesota!

Chicago lake effect snow blitz Friday!

As arctic air hits the still relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, a rare lake effect snow burst will hit the Windy City and northwest Indiana Friday into Saturday.

While lake effect is common in northwest Indianan and Michigan, low level wind trajectories have to be just right to get lake effect snow in Chicago. Friday into early Saturday brings the perfect NNE wind trajectory that flows down the entire fetch of Lake Michigan and right into the Chicago metro area.

At least 6" could fall in Chicago, and this set up look so good that I wouldn't be shocked to see some bands of 6" to 12" in and close to Chicago.

At least somebody in the Midwest is getting snow Friday!

PH

Warmest winter of our lifetime so far! A shot at 40 today? Arctic Friday

Posted at 8:22 AM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

2nd warmest winter on record so far in the metro

134 years since we've seen a warmer winter (1877-'78)

3 sub zero nights so far this winter at MSP Airport

30 nights of sub zero in an "average" winter

40 today for western Minnesota and maybe the metro

Arctic front tonight & Friday

Sub zero in northern Minnesota tonight & Saturday morning

Near zero in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning

30s return next week!

Warmest winter in our lifetime:

It's been 134 years since we've seen a winter this warm! Details from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

"The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees."

Twin Cities Warmest Meteorological Winters

Top Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperatures (Twin Cities 1872-2012)

Rank Year Avg. Temp
--------------------------
1.) 1877-1878 29.0 F
2.) 2011-2012 27.0 F*
3.) 1930-1931 26.9 F
4.) 2001-2002 26.8 F
5.) 1997-1998 25.9 F
6.) 1986-1987 25.8 F
7.) 1982-1983 24.0 F
8.) 1991-1992 23.5 F
9.) 1943-1944 23.5 F
10.) 1920-1921 23.2 F
11.) 1999-2000 23.1 F

*As of February 7

2nd fewest sub zero nights too!

"The Twin Cities International Airport has only seen three nights that have dipped below zero for the winter of 2011-2012. That means that this winter has the second fewest sub-zero nights on record back to 1872. The coldest Minimum Temperature of the 2011-2012 season so far in the Twin Cities is -11. This is in a five-way tie for the third warmest winter minimum. The warmest winter minimum is -3 in the winter of 2001-02."

Twin Cities Least Number of Below Zero Minimums in a Winter
Rank Year Number of days below zero (Twin Cities 1872-2012)
-------------------------------
1.) 2001-2002 2
2.) 2011-2012 3*
3.) 1877-1878 4
4.) 1930-1931 5
5.) 2005-2006 6
6.) 1881-1882 7
6.) 1986-1987 7
8.) 1982-1983 8
9.) 1920-1921 9
10.) 1997-1998 10

*As of February 7

"January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees."

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.
Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

Mild ahead of arctic front today!

We'll warm quickly today for several reasons.

1) Stronger February sun & higher sun angle

2) Bare ground-lack of snow cover

3) Dry air mass heats easily

Chilly weekend; 30s again next week?

Get ready to ride another temp roller coaster. Temps plunge this weekend, only to recover next week!

Enjoy this last mild day for a while!

PH

USA: 4th warmest January on record

Posted at 5:22 PM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

4th warmest January on record for the USA according to NOAA

7th warmest January in Minnesota according to Mark Seeley at UM (preliminary)

4th warmest start to meteorological winter (Dec & Jan) on record in the Twin Cities

Sub-zero again overnight in northern Minnesota

Near zero Friday & Saturday morning in the metro?

USA: 4th warmest January on record:

The data is in from NOAA for January, and this will go down as the 4th warmest year opener on record.

More details from NOAA:

"Climate Highlights -- January

•The United States Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) and Regional Climate Extremes Index (RCEI) are sensitive to extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, drought, and tropical cyclones on the national and regional scale, respectively. During January, the USCEI was above average, driven by a large extent in warm maximum temperatures. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent, which is the second highest value on record. Regionally, the West North Central, South, and West regions ranked 3rd or 4th highest for the extent of warm maximum temperature extremes."

Minnesota was "ground Zero" for January warmth. My MPR colleague and UM cimate guru Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates.

Topic: Preliminary climate summary for January 2012

"A very warm January prevailed across Minnesota. Many observers report mean monthly temperatures that are 7 to 9 degrees F warmer than average. Both Fargo-Moorhead and International Falls report their 5th warmest January in history, while on a statewide basis January 2012 appears to rank as the 7th warmest historically. Three new state record high temperatures were set for the month (on the 4th, 54 F at Marshall; on the 5th, 63 F at Marshall and Canby; and on the 10th, 59 F at Marshall). MSP International Airport reported only three mornings with below zero F temperatures, well below the average of eleven. The monthly temperature extremes were 63 degrees F at Marshall and Canby on the 5th, and -30 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the 20th. January was the 4th consecutive month with significantly above normal temperatures across the state, making the October (2011) through January (2012) period one of the warmest in state history. One final note on temperature: despite the dominance of warm temperatures, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on four dates during the month.

Soil frost depths increased during January, starting out at just a few inches below the soil surface and dropping to as deep as 20 to 30 inches in places where there is little snow cover."

February started mild in Minnesota. Temps at MSP Airport ran a full +13.4 degrees vs. average for the first 6 days!

Our cooler weather pattern looks to persist for the next two weeks of February. We should creep back closer to what passes for "average" in Minnesota these days.

Stay tuned, and stay warm!

PH

Winter chill today and Tuesday

Posted at 6:47 AM on January 2, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Snow, Winter 2011-12

Winds will ease slowly through the day after the state was buffetted by northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph on Sunday. A wind gust of 54 mph was observed at Sioux Falls, South Dakota, with a gust to 51 mph at St. Cloud yesterday afternoon.

Temperatures this morning were chilly but still above normal for the season. Sub zero wind chill readings were reported as brisk winds remained as high as 30 mph.

December was warmer than normal statewide and short on moisture. The Ice Box of the Nation, International Falls registered only five days below zero. Their average temperature for December was nine degrees above normal. At the Twin Cities International Airport, the coldest reading for December 2011 was 5 degrees above zero. The last day where the average temperature in the Metro was below normal was December 10th.

So far this winter season snowfall has totaled less than an inch in Sioux Falls, South Dakota and only about five inches in Fargo, North Dakota.

A tier of Minnesota counties near the Iowa border tallied normal precipitation for December. Moisture from the New Years Eve weather system was on the order of a quarter to a third of an inch around the Twin Cities metro.

Check out this link from the National Weather Service in Duluth for the snowfall graphic from New Years Eve.

It will be chilly today and cold overnight, but a moderation in temperatures is seen for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are expected to reach into the lower 40s again on Thursday and Friday.

The Climate Prediction Center issued an updated outlook for the month of January. Here's the graphic issued December 31st for temperatures.

Precipitation outlook for January 2012 from Climate Prediction Center.

Snapshot of this week's weather from the NWS in Chanhassen, MN.

Searching for moisture between now and Christmas

Posted at 6:34 AM on December 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Snow, White Christmas, Winter 2011-12

While working as a forecaster at the Indianapolis NWS Office in the 1970s, the computer models were getting good enough to extend a forecast out about seven days. For the most part, they were fairly accurate through seventy-two hours. We applied a number of what was known as cook book rules in forecasting snow amounts. Many are still basic enough to use today.

One of the standard synoptic forecasting techniques was to expect the heaviest snow to accumulate about 150 miles north of the track of the center of lowest pressure. That was close to the case for last Saturday's snowfall of six inches from Clear Lake, Iowa to Cumberland, Wisconsin.

Looking out at the long range GFS, I can't find a system that has the potential to produce signifcant snow in the Upper Midwest between now and December 24th. But I'm experienced enough to doubt model output data after five days, particularly in the winter months. I know this much, daylight is continuing to grow short and we are gradually approaching the historically coldest days of the season.

Our friends at the State Climate Office have posted this graphic of the probability of a White Christmas in Minnesota. Here's a statement they included with the image; The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead. The chances decrease to the south and west and the best chance for a "brown" Christmas is in far southwest Minnesota where chances are a little better than 60%.

You can dive into more details of their research by clicking on their White Christmas post.

Cold air is still coming, but so is the moderation. Once we get through the next forty-eight hours of winter chill there will be a nice bump-up in temperatures for Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

The GFS has been consistent with readings in the lower to perhaps the middle 30s on Sunday. Here's a snapshot of expected surface temperatures and winds for noon on Sunday.

Before I turn the weather fun back to the Chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, I'll leave you with this extended temperature outlook for the next 8 to 14 days from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. I'll not include an editorial comment.

This is not a magnitude of warmth or cold but a confidence level of above or below normal temperatures. May the wind be always at your back.
CE

Good-bye autumn and welcome winter

Posted at 3:40 PM on November 30, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Seasonal forecasting, Winter

Some may say that winter "officially" begins on the winter solstice, December 21st at 11:30 p.m. The climate and weather community consider the months of December, January and February to nicely frame the historic reference of winter temperatures and precipitation. Today we close the chapter on the driest autumn on record in the Twin Cities and anxiously anticipate the winter of 2011/2012. Temperatures on average were about three to five degrees above normal for November.

The State Climate Office posted this graphic of the departure from normal for precipitation in Minnesota since the last week of July. Many locations along the Minnesota River and south to the Iowa border tallied less than an inch and a half of moisture from September 1st to November 30th.

Late this afternoon light snow, mixed with some light rain, had developed through central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. This band of precipitation is likely to become all snow later this evening as it sags south across the Twin Cities. The gradual southeast drift should place most of the light snow south of the metro by daybreak. Accumulations are expected to be an inch or less.

Our attention on Thursday will turn to another weather maker that has the potential to produce snow in southeast Minnesota Saturday. Models are presenting opposing solutions for how far north snow will extend. Regradless, colder air will sweep into the Upper Midwest on Saturday night and Sunday. You'll get the taste of winter.

The Climate Prediction Center has released an updated outlook for December. It's a tossup on above or below normal temperatures. As you know, normal is sorted out with daily extremes. I suspect there could be some healthy swings in temperatures, thus we'll agree with the equal chance of above or below normal temperatures for December.

The 30-day precipitation outlook also has equal chances of above or below normal for Minnesota and the surrounding states.

NOAA's Climate Center has not yet released an updated outlook for the meteorological winter. The previous forecast indicated odds favoring below normal temperatures in Minnesota, issued on November 17th.

In other big weather news, you may be interested in this warning for strong winds in southern California later tonight and into Friday. From the National Weather Service in Oxnard:
THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 80 MPH OR GREATER THROUGH FAVORED MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND 60 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS WIND FAVORED COASTAL
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

Saturday Snow; Drought deepens; Metro sized Antarctic iceberg?

Posted at 9:02 AM on November 17, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Updraft Headlines:

-6 degrees - in Hallock this morning!
(Season's first sub-zero temp in Minnesota)

16 degrees at MSP Airport - coldest since March 27th

4% - approximate indoor relative humidity in your home today

Growing chance of snow Saturday from the metro north

-6.69" rainfall deficit in the Twin Cities since August 1st!

99.52% of Minnesota in some stage of drought according to latest U.S. Drought Monitor

Metro sized iceberg ready to break off in Antarctica according to NASA

6 dead and counting in southeast tornado outbreak

Coldest so far...

We'll hear that line again many times over the next month or two. Today it was tiny Hallock in far northwest corner of Minnesota that recorded the first sub-zero temperature of the season in Minnesota. The mercury dipped to a frigid -6 at Hallock this morning!

The Twin Cities bottomed out at 16 degrees around 7 am today! That's the coldest since March 27th, nearly 8 months ago.

The Arctic Desert: Just add water!

Welcome to the Arctic Desert. This bone numbing air mass is also extremely dry. Dew points are in the single digits in much of Minnesota today.

As you take that dry air indoors and heat it up, relative humidity plunges inside your home. The approximate relative humidity if you heat your home to 65 degrees is around 4% today!

No wonder you're getting door knob zapped, and your skin is cracking like crazy.

It's a good time to check the indoor humidifier on your furnace or add water to the air in your home if you can.

Saturday Snow: Still on track

The early Thursday model runs are still on track for snow Saturday from the metro north.

The GFS, NAM and other models seem to mostly agree on tracking low pressure through Iowa to south of La Crosse Saturday. As the fast moving system zips by, it should lay down a few inches of snow.

Still to early to pinpoint totals, but what we can credibly say is the quick pace of the system will not give it time to gulp down hugs amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That should keep snowfall totals down into the manageable (but potentially shovelable) range. I don't see a Mega Storm with double digit snowfall totals this time.

At this time the most reliable advice is to plan on snow Saturday and Saturday evening from the metro north and west, with lesser amounts south and east.

NAM model hints at lighter snow totals near the metro, with heavier snow in northwest Wisconsin.

Stay tuned, there are still model snowfall differences for the metro and possible track changes. I'll put some numbers out tomorrow.

Drought Deepens

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a full 99.52% of Minnesota is now "abnormally dry" or in some stage of drought. Severe drought now extends form the southwest metro to the Iowa border, and from near Ely to the North Shore.

The metro is running nearly 7" behind on rainfall since August 1st, with deficits as high as 9" in southern Minnesota near Mankato, Waseca, Northfield, Faribault and Owatonna.

The average date of soil freeze is nearly here, and we desperately need significant rainfall to soak into the ground before the soil is locked up until spring. Unfortunately the weather maps look relatively dry the next two weeks.

It's crazy how we've transitioned from one of the most extreme severe weather barrages in Minnesota history last year to deep drought in just a few weeks!

Metro sized Antarctic Iceberg ready to break off?

This caught my eye.

According to NASA a huge 18 mile long crack on the edge of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is ready to break off and form a huge iceberg. The giant crack is anywhere from 260 feet to 820 feet wide.

NASA scientists discovered the gaping crack on a flyover in October.

The resulting iceberg may be about 300 square miles. That's about the size of the Twin Cities inside the 494 - 694 ring!

Death toll rises in southern severe outbreak

As many as 6 people are now dead in last night's tornado outbreak in the southeast.

Preliminary data from SPC indicates 12 tornado reports from Mississippi to North Carolina.

Stay tuned as new model runs come in today and tonight as we track the potential for the first real snow of the season for the metro and much of central Minnesota Saturday!

PH

Wintery Preview: Cold now, Saturday snow north? 10th warmest year?

Posted at 5:35 PM on November 15, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

Updraft Headlines:

Paul & Babe webcam shows fresh coating of snow Tuesday evening in Bemidji!

Wind chill factor between 15 and 25 degrees Wednesday AM!

19 degrees in the metro by Thursday morning?

50 degrees possible in the metro by Friday afternoon

60 miles north - latest GFS track trend for Saturday snow potential

70% Weather Lab estimate for accumulating snow from Brainerd to the Iron Range and Duluth by Saturday night

40% Weather Lab estimate for 1" of snow at MSP by Sunday at this point

8th warmest October on record globally according to NOAA

10th warmest year on record globally so far in 2011

Season's coldest air mass invades:

Wind chill is back! You can feel it in the air. A bracing northwest wind will linger into Wednesday before easing late in the day.

The coldest air of the season is funneling southward from now snow covered Canada. With temps in the 20s and 30s in Minnesota and brisk northwest winds the wind chill will make it feel ike teens and even single digits north!

Though the kids will protest, you'll want to send them out the door with the "real" winter jacket Wednesday!

Would be even colder with snow cover!

Bare ground still covers Minnesota. Last year at this time a thick blanket of 8" to 14" of snow covered much of the state.

Temperatures may dip into the low 20s or even teens in the metro early Thursday morning, but if we had snow cover we would easily be 10 degrees colder!

The radiative and reflective properties of snow cover make a big difference in temperatures. We're adding about 10 degrees with the lack of snow cover this November compared to last year.

Roller Coaster: A shot at 50 Friday?

Even with our sun angle and intensity now only equal to late January, we'll rebound quickly on southerly winds Friday. 40s will return, and temperatures without snow cover may make a run at 50 in southern Minnesota!

Potenital Saturday snow maker: Slower and trending north

The latest GFS model runs have been trending Saturday's low pressure system about 60 miles farther north. That means the rain snow line may shift from the northwest metro to near St. Cloud. The result of that shift would be mostly rain and very little snow for the metro.

The best shot for accumulating snow still looks to be north of a Fergus Falls to Brainerd to Duluth line. Heaviest totals would be pushed to the Iron Range cities and Ely.

The track can and probably will shift again. Stay tuned as we track the system day by day as the modes tweak the forecast track..

****It's still too early to credibly start pinning down snowfall totals for various cities in Minnesota, but be aware there is a good chance of accumulating snow in central and northern Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night!****

NOAA: 8th warmest October on record

NOAA reports that October was the 8th warmest on record globally since 1880.

Arctic Sea Ice was also the 2nd lowest on record for October, 23.5% below average.

Global temperature highlights: October

•Several locations in Argentina experienced their coolest October in five decades.

So far 2011 is the 10th warmest on record globally. This is significant because La Nina has been active, and another "top 10 warmest year" may occur in spite of the oceanic cooling effects from La Nina.

Global temperature highlights: Year to date

•Monthly rainfall across Spain was 35 percent below average, the driest October since 1998.

Stay tuned on Saturday's snow potential, and stay warm in the meantime!

PH

Warmer in the Cities

Posted at 4:15 PM on October 21, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Drought, Microclimates, Urban Heat Island

The urban heat island is well observed in the climate records of metropolitan areas. If you reside in downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul you experienced a minimum temperature that was near or even above the thawing point of 32 degrees this morning. The International Airport recorded a low of 32 degrees, while Saint Anthony checked in with 34 degrees. All official temperatures are taken about five feet above ground level.

Meanwhile, it was a different story away from the urban region. Here is a sample of some other minimum temperatures recorded this morning: Chanhassen, Crystal, and Buffalo all at 27 degrees, Further away from downtown, it was a very nippy 23 degrees at Waseca, 25 at St. Cloud and one of the coldest readings of 21 degrees in Princeton. Temperatures in the middle twenties were observed in western Wisconsin as well, with a frosty 25 degrees in Eau Claire.

Obviously the the exact location of the thermometer has some bearing on the temperature, particularly when winds are calm and the sky is clear. But the reality is, we were all under the umbrella of the same air mass. When meterorologists predict lows from the middle 20s to the middle 30s, they are not hedging. They are bracketing the temperatures that can be different in a small radius.

Click here to explore the overnight low temperatures.

Peter Synder of the University of Minnesota has embarked on additional research to capture the magnitude of the urban heat island in the Twin Cities. He is in particular need for observers within the Interstate 494/694 beltway. If you would be able to assist Peter and his work, he can be contacted at pksynder@umn.edu. Here's the website for more information; http://www.islands.umn.edu/

I spoke with Greg Spoden at the Minnesota State Climate Office this afternoon and he related how some of his research has shown that with a slight north wind the urban heat island can expand to Farmington. Invaluable research here, especially when scientists are trying to resolve the human impact on global warming.

Greg also confirmed that the latest seasonal outlook for this winter, issued by NOAA yesterday, is using the new normals when defining regions that favor above or below normal temperatures.

Another nice day is in store for Saturday before the opportunity for moisture arrives on Saturday night. It felt quite comfortable in the sunshine this afternoon. We topped out at 60 degrees at the Twin Cities international Airport.

Often meteorologists refer to the prospect of showers as the "threat of rain". When you have been as dry as some locations in Minnesota, you call it an opportunity for rain.

Here's a look at how sparse rainfall has been since late July. As Greg noted, southern Minnesota is seeing moisture shortages that are extremely rare. Being in the zero percentile is not where you'd like to be if you're looking for soil moisture recharge for next year's growing season.

form mt:asset-id="30912" class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image" style="display: inline;">

This afternoon's weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. Hopefully we can play out a win-win in the weather world, with precipitation falling overnight on Saturday.

No need to rush into winter

Posted at 3:45 PM on October 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Daylight, Fall, Winter 2011-12

Now that we have the offical winter outlook from NOAA we can perhaps ease our way into the cold and enjoy a little more autumn weather for late October and early Novemeber. Here's the eight to fourteen day temperature forecast for last weekend in October and the first couple days of November. As a reminder, the normal maximum and minimum for this time of the year are dropping to near 50 and lows near 32 degrees.

Extending the long range outlook through November we see odds appear to favor an easing into a cold and snowy pattern. Here's the temperature outlook for the month of November, released by NOAA this morning. Marry this graphic with the December through February outlook and you might surmise changes set in the deeper we go into November. Thanksgiving is usually about the time our winter weather pattern sets in.

For those wondering about snowfall for the winter, odds posted by the Climate Prediction Center pattern above normal moisture with the cold. Overall the outlook is aligned with the Almanac and other prognasticators. I just work on trying to get the next couple of days accurate.

Why all the attention on the outlooks when you've got plans for the weekend? Because there is not much going on until late Saturday. Winds will be on the light side and temperatures will be at or above normal. Afternoon sunshine should feel pretty nice on Friday.

Clouds thicken late in the day on Saturday and a band of showers is likely to show up in northwest Minnesota around dark and sweep east overnight. Timing in our favor, would put the wet weather east of the region by mid morning on Sunday.

To validate the absence of problematic weather, here's the visible satellite image from mid afternoon.

If Mother Nature can excite the atmosphere sufficiently, some places may receive up to a quarter inch of rain overnight on Saturday. The GFS model suggests the most likely area for measureable rainfall would be from the Iron Range to Duluth.

Not to throw water on the weekend party, we will lose about ten minutes of daylight between now and Monday. Time to get at those outdoor chores!
CE

The new normal, like comparing Cortland to Honey Crisp

Posted at 6:32 AM on October 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Cold, Winter 2011-12

When asked what lies ahead regarding the winter season, meteorologists often shape the outlook relative to normal, knowing that the wide swings in daily temperatures don't adequately define your ultimate winter experience.

Look at the tempeatuers so far this October. We enjoyed highs in the 80s earlier this month, but the past two days saw highs only in the upper 40s. We actually expect a couple of near normal days for today and Friday. That would be highs in the 50s.

Since the new thirty year normals have tossed out the relative cold readings of the 1970s and added the decadal warming since 2000, the new normals for our region have warmed, particularly in the winter season. If you have been paying attention, you'll not be surprised to learn that our coldest average minimum temperatures in January, in the Twin Cities, have gone up four degrees. For example, the average low on January 15th went from plus three degrees to plus seven degrees. Substantial indeed!

In late September NOAA issued this temperature outlook for the months of December 2011 to February 2012. Let's say we end up three degrees below normal for this three month period, known as the meteorological winter. That would actually be close to the old normal. We are comparing apples to apples, but the apples have a sweeter flavor for some of us.

An updated winter season outlook from the National Weather Service will be issued soon. It will be interesting to see if there is consistency in the outlook of favoring below normal temperatures.

In the short term, pretty quiet and seasonal weather is on tap for the upper Midwest. Winds will still be brisk today. If you are planning on doing some yard work, expect the winds to be on the light side Friday and Saturday. Ideal conditions will be found for gathering your leaves. Been holding off on the outdoor painting? Now's the time to attend to that as well.

Surface features of temperatures, pressure and wind from the NAM for 1pm on Saturday.

If you're still looking for more moisture. Here's an idea of the limited rainfall expected through the weekend.

I prefer to stall on mentioning wind chill readings being in the teens in some places at daybreak.
CE

Showery today; October reality check, First (snow) flakes next week?

Posted at 8:18 AM on October 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate

Well you knew the front had to arrive sooner or later. It looks like today is the day.

Rainfall looks to be scattered in nature, but some of us may see between .25" and ,50" rainfall totals.

Kuehnast Lecture at UM Thursday: What Are Climate Models Good For?

My MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley passes along this info on what should be another great Annual Kuehnast Lecture at the UM Thursday. There are way worth checking out if you love weather and climate topics, and they are open to the public!

Also, here's a great opportunity to meet Mark and talk a little climate with him Wednesday at the signing of his new book "Voyager Skies" the Freshwater Society in the west metro near Lake Minnetonka.

First snowflakes next Tuesday?

I know...it's hard to believe. But this is the time of the year when we have to watch the models very closely for possible big changes.

As colder air filters in next week, a low pressure spinning by to the south Tuesday may bring the right mix of cold air and moisture to produce the season's first snowflakes for parts of Minnesota.

It's too early to tell if there would be any accumulation...but stay tuned and be ready for at least a chance of dropping the "S-Word" into the forecast next week.

It wouldn't be a big shocker to see a few snowflakes in mid-October....the metro averages 0.6" of snowfall in October and Duluth averages 1.6" this month.

Kiss the 80s good bye...our October reality check is here!

PH

2011-12 Winter Outlook: Why the "crystal ball" is murky this year

Posted at 9:07 AM on October 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Seasonal forecasting, Winter 2011-12

From Almanacs to AccuWeather, the winter outlooks are flying this time of year.

But are they reliable? Or are they just an attempt to grab some headlines?

Today Updraft takes an early look at some of the forecasts and variables that go into seasonal weather forecasting.

Monday's AccuWeather blog touts "Brutal winter, snow & cold" for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. That's a subjective statement, and of course that could be a headline for just about any winter in the Upper Midwest.

But AccuWeather's idea of a brutally snowy winter this season specifically predicts 56" snowfall for MSP. That would be a full 30" less than last winter's street clogging 86.6" snow blitz in the Twin Cities! Sounds like a bargain to me.

Accu Weather's forecast goes on to say "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter." I lived in Chicago twice during my career. Guess what? Some people in Chicago (and Minnesota for that matter) want to move after every winter! AccuWeather then boldly goes on to predict 52" of snowfall for Chicago this winter....5" less than last winter.

Seasonal Forecasts: What do we look at?

Seasonal forecasts are a relatively young science.

Getting the 7-day forecast right is a challenge that can turn forecasters prematurely gray. Imagine the odds that go into getting an entire winter a season right.

There are several factors that seasonal forecasters at CPC and other places watch for. Here are a few.

-ENSO cycles: El Nino La Nina phases can tell us a lot about an upcoming winter. Strong El Nino or La Nina years can have as high as a 70% correlation with mild (El Nino) or cold & snow (La Nina) in the Upper Midwest. They can also provide useful "forecast skill" on rainfall patterns in the south.

-NAO, AO, PNA, PDO etc: There are many other indicators that can point to winter weather trends. While each one may suggest a trend...the real problem lies in connecting the dots with reliable accuracy. Which one do we rely on?

Some definitions as pulled form Wikipedia and other sources.

The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity.

The Arctic oscillation (AO) is an index (which varies over time with no particular periodicity) of the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level pressure variations north of 20N latitude.

The Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is a climatological term for a large-scale weather pattern with two modes, denoted positive and negative, and which relates the atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific Ocean with the one over the North American continent.

The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time.

Watching Siberian snow cover: A new magic bullet?

Seasonal weather forecasters are excited lately about a new indicator that seems to have some skill in predicating the severity of winter and snowfall patterns in the USA. Some forecasters are closely watching Siberian snow cover in September and October.

The theory goes like this. More snow in Siberia deepens atmospheric waves that cause the Polar Vortex to warm and the jet stream to plunge down over the eastern USA...bringing cold and snow.

Figure of relationship between Siberian snow and jet stream pattern courtesy National Science Foundation (NSF). NSF caption excerpt: "When [autumn] snowfall is high in Siberia, the resultant cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances, which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere, or stratosphere, warming the polar vortex. When the polar vortex warms, the jet stream is pushed south leading to colder winters across the eastern United states and Europe. Conversely, under these conditions the Arctic will have a warmer than average winter."

But the Capital Weather Gang's Matt Rogers has a nice write up on why it's not that simple.

"So is this all we ever need to know about seasonal forecasting? Is this relationship the magic bullet?

So why the record-setting levels? One might argue that the Siberian snow connection is the "elephant's tail"- an important clue, but not the whole story."

Why the "crystal ball" may be murky for this winter:

If you're a seasonal weather forecaster looking for clear indicators of what this winter may look like, you may be disappointed.

The ENSO outlook calls for a weak to moderate La Nina in the tropical Pacific, but not as strong as last winter's La Nina that was fingerprinted for sending seasonable cold and relentlessly snowy waves into Minnesota.

Siberian snow cover so far is near or slightly below seasonal averages so far in October. There is no clear signal yet of a snowy Siberian Fall that could trigger extreme winter cold and snow in the USA.

The bottom line? Unlike last winter, there may be no clear indicators of just what kind of winter will visit the Upper Midwest this year.

Stay tuned for more...including my own analysis and outlook for the winter of 2011-12 (for what it's worth) in the coming days!

Here's a quick preview. No two winters are exactly alike, and there have never been two consecutive winters with 80"+ snowfall in the Twin Cities.

PH

Instant October today, but mild fall pattern ahead! 80 next week?

Posted at 8:08 AM on September 21, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

It looks like a winter storm on the weather maps, and if temps were 20 degrees colder we'd be talking blizzard today in the Red River Valley.

As it is, it still feels like a shock into our "Instant October."

A potent low pressure system is spinning through Minnesota Tuesday and today.

Cold air and gusty winds are pouring south with the system. Temps will not recover today from the 50s.This may be the coldest day in Minnesota since May 14th, when the high struggled to 52 in the Twin Cities.

Winds of change:

Those gusty winds did materialize Tuesday, as gusts hit 54 in Canby and 41 in the metro. You may find your empty garbage can in Wisconsin this morning. The complete list here.

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

1 NNE CANBY (1191 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 315 PM SEP 20 54 MPH
HANLEY FALLS (1068 FT)(MNDOT) 800 PM SEP 20 48 MPH
4 SSW GRANITE FALLS (1046 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 333 PM SEP 20 45 MPH

A good breeze and scattered showers will linger today before the system begins to pull off to the east Thursday.

Milder pattern next week!

Keep those shorts handy, you may still need them this season!

The latest medium range forecast trends and the CPC agree, it could be a mild October in the Upper Midwest this year.

Check out the latest forecasts though the next 14 days from CPC.

According to CPC the mild trend may last through October.

And there are signs the "warmth" could linger into December in parts of the Upper Midwest.

Stay tuned!

PH

Climate versus weather

Posted at 6:32 AM on August 10, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate

We experience weather, that eventually defines the climate. Recently updated annual climate information across the USA has put into use the so-called new normals. By agreement among the climatological community, the normals are based on three decades worth of daily statistics recorded at approved weather observing sites. Proably the biggest change, previously noted in blogs, is the increase in overnight minimum temperatures in the winter season in our neck of the woods.

From the data I have briefly examined, made available by NOAA, the overnight low temperatures in the Twin Cities during the coldest time of the winter season (mid January), went up from tree degrees to seven degrees. In large part, this change was a result of dropping off the rather cold decade of the 1970s and incorporating the past ten years of documented warming.

Here's more details of the story from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

I came across a story on the web, attributed to Livescience.com, that stated that there were record temperatures set in every state during the month of July. Comments to the story remarked on the coolness in Washington State throughout the summer. However, I did find a report on the Seattle NWS webpage, that indeed, Seattle set a record high of 79 on July 6th. This broke the previous record of 77 set in 2007. Can you believe everything you read on the internet?

There has been some frisky solar flare activity on the sun recently. I pulled this file photo out of my archive of the solar activity forecast posted way back in March of 2009. It appears heavily weighted to a historically document cycle. Or as I like to say, we are due.

You have realized by now that the weather in our neck of the woods is rather tranquil, but on the cool side. Overnight lows dipped into the 30s in the favored cool spots in northeast Minnesota. About the Twin Cities, the burbs dipped into the 50s.

I like this graphical post from the Chanhassen NWS website this morning that summarizes the weather in the upcoming days.

If timing on precipitation is right, we may catch a break in Minnesota and find the showers moving through on Thursday night through Friday night, leaving behind dry weather for the weekend.
CE

Warmth of the August sun, minus the humidity

Posted at 4:46 PM on August 3, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate

I spent a couple hours outdoors this morning and it sure felt warm in the August sunshine. With only a slight cooling breeze it was a blessing to have dew points some twenty degrees lower than Tuesday. The dew point at the Twin Cities International Airport was 74 degrees yesterday and a more comfortable 55 degrees this afternoon.

While the mercury has climbed to ninety degrees or better at MSP this summer season on fourteen days, we are looking at a period out a couple weeks were it may be more to our delight with regard to heat. The average temperature for July in St. Cloud was about 4.5 degrees warmer than normal. The Twin Cities average temp was 5.6 degrees above normal for July 2011.

We have turned the corner for "normal" maximum temperatures in the heart of summer and are slowly creeping down into the lower 80s. By the time we reach August 13th the average high in the Twin Cities is down from 84 to 81 degrees. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center depicts odds favoring at or somewhat below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest.

Check out the July climate reports for St. Cloud, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Eau Claire and Chanhassen here.

In case you think we had it bad here, and we did with the high dew points, the average maximum temperature for July in Dallas, TX was over 101 degrees. More than 70 percent of Texas is in an exceptional drought. They could use a decaying tropical storm to move inland and dump generous rainfall. That doesn't appear likely soon.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily and the computer generated track is the challenge for hurricane forecasters in NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Center.

Here's the link to follow the tropical storm's the reminder of the season. NOAA's Hurricane Center website.

The latest update on the storm named Emily predicts a path that takes it over Haiti with winds of 50 mph and rainfall of over five inches. From the Hurricane Center's most recent statement this afternoon....Tropical Storm EMILY Public Advisory:
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Track projection as of early this afternoon for Emily.

Always subject to change, but the forecast strength remains below hurricane force of 75 mph winds until early next week.

Enjoy the seasonal temperatures the next couple of days. Overnight temperatures may allow you to shut down the A/C and bring in some outside air.

Warmth of August sun, minus the humidity

Posted at 4:30 PM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Hurricanes, dew point

I spent a couple hours outdoors this morning and it sure felt warm in the August sunshine. With only a slight cooling breeze it was a blessing to have dew points some twenty degrees lower than Tuesday. The dew point at the Twin Cities International Airport was 74 degrees yesterday and a more comfortable 55 degrees this afternoon.

While the mercury has climbed to ninety degrees or better at MSP this summer season on fourteen days, we are looking at a period out a couple weeks were it may be more to our delight with regard to heat. The average temperature for July in St. Cloud was about 4.5 degrees warmer than normal. The Twin Cities average temp was 5.6 degrees above normal for July 2011.

We have turned the corner for "normal" maximum temperatures in the heart of summer and are slowly creeping down into the lower 80s. By the time we reach August 13th the average high in the Twin Cities is down from 84 to 81 degrees. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center depicts odds favoring at or somewhat below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest.

Check out the July climate reports for St. Cloud, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Eau Claire and Chanhassen here.

In case you think we had it bad here, and we did with the high dew points, the average maximum temperature for July in Dallas, TX was over 101 degrees. More than 70 percent of Texas is in an exceptional drought. They could use a decaying tropical storm to move inland and dump generous rainfall. That doesn't appear likely soon.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily and the computer generated track is the challenge for hurricane forecasters in NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Center.

Here's the link to follow the tropical storm's the reminder of the season. NOAA's Hurricane Center website.

The latest update on the storm named Emily predicts a path that takes it over Haiti with winds of 50 mph and rainfall of over five inches. From the Hurricane Center's most recent statement this afternoon....Tropical Storm EMILY Public Advisory:
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Track projection as of early this afternoon for Emily.

Always subject to change, but the forecast strength remains below hurricane force of 75 mph winds until early next week.

Enjoy the seasonal temperatures the next couple of days. Overnight temperatures may allow you to shut down the A/C and bring in some outside air.

CE

Increasing threat of dangerous storms

Posted at 3:55 PM on August 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Target Field, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, dew point

This visible satellite image shows a couple of important aspects about this afternoon's weather. First, the clouds that remained over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which kept temperatures from climbing into the lower 90s. Second, the clearing in western Minnesota that has allowed sunshine and high dew points to produce heat index values about 100; including 106 at 3PM in Canby.

In the previous blog you'll note the Storm Prediction Center's rather high probability of tornado potential in western Minnesota. There is a boundary from the differential heating due to the cloud-free area and the persistent cloud cover. This is displayed nicely in the graphic of the dew points, temperatures and pressure field as generated from 3PM surface observations.

Temperature contours are in red, dew point highlighted by colored background and pressure field in black. Basic meteorology suggests the inflow of winds from the south and southeast, along with the advancing low pressure, high dew points and afternoon heating will result in thunderstorm development in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

We'll watch how this unfolds in the later afternoon and early evening hours.

Meanwhile, Pete Boulay of the State Climate Office shared this tid-bit after probing the dew points recorded this summer at the Twin Cities International Airport. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 98 hours of dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher. This breaks the old record of 78 hours that was set back on 2001.

Some branches were blown down along with power lines as the storms swept through east central Minnesota between 1230PM and 230PM this afternoon. Here's a link to the storm reports out of the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Heavy rain also was reported with over two inches at Hutchison and an inch and a half at Target Field near downtown Minneapolis from late morning to mid afternoon.

Stay abreast of potentially dangerous weather conditions developing as we go into the evening hours.
CE

New MSP "30 year normals" show trends

Posted at 4:44 PM on July 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

More widespread storms Tuesday night & Wednesday morning.

Enjoy another beautifully dry summer day Tuesday before the next wave of storms moves our way late Tuesday night.

New MSP 30 year climate normals: Some distinct trends

When you hear the weather folks babble about "normal" or more accurately "average" temperatures they are probably talking about a 30 year running average for MSP Airport. (Or another weather station near you)

This month the NWS unveiled the "new" 30 year averages. The data dumps the decade of the 70s (a cold decade) in favor of the 2000's (the hottest decade on record).

The data shows some distinct trends for Minnesota. Some notable data points.

-Winter in Minnesota is getting warmer, especially at night. The average high temperature in January rose 1.8 degrees at MSP Airport. The average January low showed the biggest rise in any month of the year, +3.2 degrees!

-Overall winter season snowfall fell nearly 2", from 55.9" to 54" annually.

Climate change theory has long stated that warming should be greatest at northern latitudes. The observed changes in the new set of 30 year averages support this.

In fact, Minnesota & Wisconsin show some of the biggest temperature rises in the USA.

Here's the rest of the story & data from the Twin Cities NWS.

New 1981-2010 Climate Normals

"The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is responsible for producing 30 year climate normals of numerous climatological variables every 10 years for U.S. locations. The primary variables include temperature, precipitation, and derived products such as heating and cooling degree days. Normals serve as a baseline average of important climate variables that are used to understand average climate conditions at any location and serve as a consistent point of reference.

In this latest set of normals (1980-2010), the 1971-1980 decade was removed (generally considered a cool decade) and the 2000-2010 decade was added (warmer by comparison). As a result, the 1980-2010 average temperature across the United States is now approximately 0.5 F degrees warmer than the 1971-2000 period. However, this warming is not uniform across the country or from season to season. For instance, the 1981-2010 average high temperature for the mid section of the U.S. is cooler in July compared to the previous set of normals. Meanwhile, the January normal lows are much warmer across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley compared to 1971-2000.

A comparison of how the 1971-2000 (Old) normals compare to the 1981-2010 (New) normals for MSP Airport, & St Cloud. Significant trends highlighted in colored boxes.
(Click to enlarge)

Feeling warmer yet?

PH

Uncharted Heat Index values

Posted at 7:53 AM on July 18, 2011 by Craig Edwards (11 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Crops, Heat, Microclimates, dew point

Austin Schoen (left), Mark Schauer (center) and Tanner Schauer cool off on the Bumper Boats ride at Lilli Putt in Coon Rapids, Minn., on July 18, 2011. (MPR Photo/Nikki Tundel)

While we are calling this sweltering, oppressive atmosphere a Heat Wave, it equally worthy of being called a High Dew Point Warning. Yesterday afternoon and evening dew points, a very good indicator of the moisture in the atmosphere, were in the lower 80s over a large swath of southern Minnesota. It is very rare to observe sustained high dew points over a broad area this far north.

Dew point measurement can me impacted by the microclimate of the sensors location. We see dew points at their highest in southern Minnesota from mid July through about mid August. A number of us in the weather business believe that these seasonally high dew points are the results of the evapo-transpiration of the maturing corn corps across Iowa and southern Minnesota. Moisture is released back into the low levels of the atmosphere and we feel its affects.

A slight drop in dew points is seen for today. We may well see a few degrees of additional heat on the thermometer. That translates to Heat Index values of 105 to 115, in the shade, during the middle of the day. This is excessively sweltering when you add into the equation direct sunlight. Stay out of the sun today if you can. Unless you are standing in the lake.

Dogs and cats instinctly slow down in this weather. If your dog needs to have a walk, make it a quick trip early in the morning or in the evening. Provide plenty of water for pet during this sultry period.

Follow the advice from health officials with regard to your well being. Apply the number one rule; slow down. Dress in light colors with a brimmed hat.

Heat spell breaks a bit towards the end of the week. Just so you know; the climate records document the next seven to ten days as the warmest period during the calendar year.

The sensible temperature is about fifteen degrees warmer in the direct sunshine.

Think cool thoughts today.
CE

Rain Today: Weekend heat; Shutdown & climate data

Posted at 7:05 AM on July 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Flooding, Heat, Rainfall

The next weather system is pushing rain into Minnesota Thursday morning. Some numbers:

.95" NAM model rainfall output for MSP Airport next 60 hours

3"- 4" NAM rainfall output for areas near Morris, Alexandria & St. Cloud to Hinckley

2" possible rainfall totals favoring north metro next 48 hours

Finding the "sweet spot"

This is where weather forecasting gets dicey. Specifically, flash flood forecasting.

As hotter, wetter air pushes north over the next 48 hours, the precise location of surface warm frontal positions and upper air low tracks take on added meaning. If the warm front is overhead, and the upper low passes over the top of you...get an ark! You could get 3" to 4" of rain.

If you're 50-75 miles either side....maybe an inch of rain? No big deal.

The latest model trends suggest the "sweet spot" for heavy rainfall may lay out across central Minnesota. A line from Morris through Alexandria, St. Cloud to Hinckley seems like the favored area to pick up a multi inch deluge.

NAM model paints heaviest rain bands between the metro and Duluth.

Duluth and the Twin Cities lie on either side...maybe an inch of rain or more? Again, this is if things pan out that way. The heavy rain area could easily shift north or south.

Either way, be ready for showers & T-Storms moving into western MN tonight and spreading into eastern MN (including Duluth & the metro) by Thursday morning.

Some of the rain will be heavy. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, with a lower chance for hail and damaging winds.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest storm total rainfall radar estimates

Up Next: Weekend heat wave

As the hot dome of air pushes north this weekend, temperatures will soar. We'll see more heat advisories and extreme heat warnings in Minnesota.

Check out some of the forecast heat index values starting Sunday!

State of Minnesota shutdown affects MN climate info users:

"Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you got 'til it's gone."

That's how this forecaster and other local "mets" must feel about the shutdown of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group website. It's a royal pain for us as forecasters not to have the excellent data, but the bigger perspective is that there are several dedicated climate professionals (and thousands of other dedicated state employees) out of work through no fault of their own!

We are so fortunate to have this amazing group of dedicated climate specialists in Minnesota. I know I'm missing somebody but the excellent work of dedicated professionals like Jim Zandlo,Greg Spoden, Pete Boulay, and Dr. Mark Seeley bring our rich Minnesota climate history to life. It is extremely valuable to have a basis for comparison to current weather patterns and records like the one provided by the MN Climate Working Group web site.

The site is currently unavailable due to the government shutdown.

I asked my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley about this today. His reply below.

Hi Paul,

Mark

There are some other sources available, but none as comprehensive as the Minnesota Climatology Working Group site.

I sure hope it comes back soon!

PH

Short term uncertainty

Posted at 6:56 AM on July 7, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

With the weakening jet stream in the summertime, meteorologists are frustrated with the uncertainity of forecasting precipitation due to lack of a clear triggering force. Thus the broadbrush of low end precipitation probabilities for the next twenty-four hours.

What a difference a day makes. At this time on Wednesday morning much of Minnesota was cloud free. Here's a look at the 630AM visible satellite that shows south central Minnesota enjoying sunshine. Notice the bumps in the cloud cover along the South Dakota/Minnesota border where showers have more gitty-up.

Indications from tracking last night's model output support more forcing and vertical lift in the atmosphere on Friday night into Saturday night. Exactly where the potential for heavier showers might be is difficult to pin-point. See the output from the GFS model for a bulls-eye of significant rain on Saturday evening. Is this just an outlier or will this become reality? The next model run may confirm or overrule the downpour potential.

Yes that's a total of nearly two inches in central Minnesota. An example of what meteorologists examine to craft a forecast for your weekend.

You may have heard that the NWS has released and as of July 1st is now using the updated thirty year normals. As we learned over time normals are the output of the collection of the extremes. The numbers currently used have tossed out the relatively cold temperatures in the 1970s and incoporated the warmer winter temperatures of the past ten years.

I was speaking with the chief meteorologist for NOAA in the Twin Cities last evening and we agreed that the long range outlook for the winter, posted by the Climate Prediction Center is now impacted by the change in the normals.

See the graphic from NOAA on the change/warmer minimum temperatures in our neck of the woods. Most of this warming in the new normals comes from the winter season.

Based on the new normals, here's the Climate Prediction very long range outlook for the months of December 2011 to February 2012. There are several more factors that will come into play by the time we approach the winter season. Use outlooks with caution.

Equal chances of above or below temperatures for the upcoming winter; not necessarily breaking news. But you did read it here.
CE

New NOAA normals may reveal face of climate change in MN

Posted at 8:10 AM on June 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

NOAA will officially release new 30 year averages (1981-2010) on July 1st, but we're already learning some significant facts from the early data.

What we've learned so far may tell us a lot about the face of climate change in Minnesota.

Here are the biggest kernels so far and something to think about this Tuesday morning.

-Minnesota winter nights got a lot milder in the past 30 years. Overnight low (minimum) temperatures in January average a full 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous 30 year (1971-2000) data set.

-Minnesota summer days are not getting hotter. Average high (maximum) temperatures in July show little change from the previous 30 year data set.

The strongest climate change signals for Minnesota are occurring in winter, and at night.

-Statewide averages of annual normals of tmax and tmin show that the 1981-2010 normals are warmer than the 1971-2000 for all lower 48 states!

Much more on this in the days to come, but this data will likely confirm with hard numbers what many have been saying about climate changes in Minnesota, and the USA.

Showers bucking dry air:

Weak waves of moisture are pushing toward Minnesota this week, but they're fighting some dry air near the surface and having a tough time getting going.

Radar loop shows attempted showers bucking dry air this morning.

Dew points at the surface are in the 40s in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and that dry air is undercutting shower development today.

GOES 1km visible satellite with dew points overlaid shows dry air to the east.

Look for a slow increase in showers in southwest Minnesota and a slow spread northeast today.

By late tonight & Wednesday there should be enough moisture push and upper air support to get more widespread showers going in Minnesota. Wednesday still looks like the wettest day this week.

Models still differ on Thursday-Saturday between wet and a drier warmer weather pattern.

Stay tuned!

PH

Pattern Change: Occasional thaws ahead?

Posted at 8:29 AM on January 26, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

November 13th. Mark it down as the day winter began in Minnesota. The season's first winter storm blasted Minnesota with a snowy swath of 8"+ from Fairmont to the Twin Cities to Duluth.

Just 3 days earlier we basked under sunny skies and set a record high of 68 degrees in the Twin Cities. That run of Indian Summer November 7th-10th capped off the 3rd latest 4 day stretch of highs in the 60s on record in the metro. Remember how GREAT that felt?

Fast forward to today, January 26, 2011. 74 days later a series of at least 9 significant snow events (and several minor dustings) have laid down a total of 55.4" of metro snow...with similar hefty totals around much of the state. We are now near the overall season average of 55.9" at MSP Airport...a number we may reach this week.

Consistent cold has also been a feature in the past 2 and-a-half months. Since November 13th we have only reached 40 degrees in the metro 3 times. The Twin Cities has not climbed above freezing (or thawing!) for 27 days... since December 30th, when the mercury mercifully soared to an ice dam busting, rain soaked 42 degrees!

Even by Minnesota standards, this has been a rigorous, character building, persistent winter of cold and snow.

Warmer Arctic to blame?

The winter of 2010-'11 is unusual in that it's been unseasonably warm in Greenland and inside the Arctic regions of northeast Canada, even as persistent cold and snow is being driven south into Europe and the USA.

Climate scientists have indentified several regional patterns or "oscillations" that have an impact on seasonal climate. There's the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA), The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the more famous El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to name a few.

Each pattern affects different regions of the globe and operates on different time scales. These overlapping regional and global systems make it difficult to pinpoint seasonal pattern around the globe with say 80 or 90% certainty. That means any give winter can be different depending on which regional climate phase is dominant. It's difficult, if not impossible; say which happens first and what "drives" what...a little like the chicken & egg.

A more recent theory is that this upside down winter is driven (or "forced" as climate experts say) by unusually warm water in the usually frozen Arctic Ocean. ABC News filed this story Tuesday.

Pattern change ahead?

This winter has featured a persistent big "boss man" Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay. The upper low has kept Minnesota in northwest flow, dealing us arctic air masses for the past two months.

There are signs that may be about to change...a little. The GFS has hinted now for a few runs that the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex may shift slightly north over the next two weeks. That won't end winter anytime soon, but it should be enough to allow some milder Pacific air to slide over the Upper Midwest periodically in the next two weeks.

The first shot of relief comes this week, as temperatures may approach of hit the thawing point Thursday & Friday in southern Minnesota.

Highs were in the 50s Tuesday over the non-snow covered areas in Nebraska. It won't get anywhere near that warm here...but it's a sign that milder air masses are getting closer to Minnesota.

After another arctic shot next week, it looks like we could see a more extended thaw the first week of February. If the models verify, we may see temps above freezing somewhere in the Feb 3rd to 5th time frame.

GFS hinting at milder Pacific air in two weeks.

Hang in there...our weather luck may be about to change for the better!

PH

Brighter Days Ahead

Posted at 5:22 PM on January 25, 2011 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Climate

Okay I'll admit it. I've got a bad case of SAD.

I tired valiantly to fight it off as long as possible this year...but the January doldrums finally got me. I'm sick of winter, sick of gray, sick of the cold...and I know I'm not alone. Yes, even your friendly neighborhood weatherman gets a little SAD in mid-winter.

Thankfully I've got hockey...the best, adrenaline rush and endorphin pumping workout I know of during these cold winter months. It's also a great way to lose a few extra holiday pounds.

The good news is even though it's the "dead of winter" there are signs that seasonal change is just a few weeks away. Dare I utter the word...? "Spring?"

Here are some positive benchmarks in the next few weeks:

-Daylight is now rapidly increasing! We're gaining more than 2 minutes a day now. We'll be gaining 3 minutes a day starting next week! You can caluclate the length of daylight for any location at the USNO site here.

Daylight increases 1 hour 18 minutes in the Twin Cities in February!
(click for bigger image)

-The sun angle increases noticeably in the next few weeks. In less than a month the sun at noon will be 34 degrees above the southern horizon at solar noon. That's a full 12 degrees higher than the 22 degrees on the winter solstice last month.

- Temperatures respond to the increasing solar energy in the next month. Our average high temp reaches 30 degrees in just over 3 weeks, and 45 degrees in the next 60 days!

(Click for more readable image)

-In just 6 weeks daylight saving time resumes...and the sun will set after 7pm (7:16pm) on March 13th!

-Asronomical Spring begins on March 20th at 6:21pm!

Bottom line for everyone who's (more than) a little tired of winter, hang in there. Brighter days are truly just around the corner!

PH

Cold Winter? Blame it on Siberian snow. (Next snow Monday?)

Posted at 5:43 PM on January 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Winter

Are you shivering this winter? Tired of shoveling snow? Stunned by "snowpacolyptic" video from the eastern USA & Europe this winter?

Blame it on Siberia. One researcher believes weather in Novosibirsk affects Northfield.

It's an interesting (and emerging) scientific twist on what may trigger colder than average winters in the Northern Hemisphere. The theory is that extensive fall snow cover in Siberia favors colder winters in the much of USA & Europe.

Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. thinks he has found the link. His work appears in the Journal of Climate.

Here's the write up from Science Central:

"If there was above normal snow cover in Siberia in October, there tended to be colder temperatures in the Eastern U.S. in the wintertime," Cohen says.

Cohen showed that his model outperforms today's commonly-used forecast models in predicting forecasts for the last 35 years of weather. But he says actual predictions are what make or break a model--or a reputation.

Cohen's forecast for winter 2011 (Jan-Mar) sticks a cold weather bull's eye right over...you guessed it...Minnesota.

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Jan-Feb-Mar 2011 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting warm for the Southwestern US and cold for much of the Northwestern US, the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Northeast and the Southeast. The model uses October Siberian snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies, and predicted winter sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in its 2011 winter forecast. October 2010 snow cover was observed to be above normal, which favors below normal temperatures for the Eastern US. We are also anticipating a stratospheric warming in January with cold weather to follow.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER Inc.

Andrew Revkin from the New York Times is keeping tabs on the prediction.

The National Science Foundation report further explains:

"Researchers have validated a new weather prediction model that uses autumn snowfall to predict winter cold in the United States and Europe. When snowfall is high in Siberia, the resultant cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances, which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere, or stratosphere, warming the polar vortex. When the polar vortex warms, the jet stream is pushed south leading to colder winters across the eastern United States and Europe. Conversely, under these conditions the Arctic will have a warmer than average winter."

ENSO cycles have been the primary driver of winter seasonal climate forecasts so far. That may change if Cohen's October Siberian snowfall theory continues to pan out. Of course there is the question, are ENSO cycles driving October snow patterns in Siberia? It could be another chicken & egg scenario, but anything that helps refine seasonal forecasts has great value...whether it's chicken or egg.

So far, Cohen's predictions look good for the winter of 2011, and with cold (and potentially plowable snow!) is on the way the next two weeks, including the potential for a few inches Monday & Tuesday...and again Friday.

Some forecast models suggesting 3"+ potential Monday & Tuesday?
(Click for bigger image)

Of course, many Minnesotans may be hoping Cohen's winter 2011 forecast somehow goes horribly wrong...and a prolonged winter thaw sets in. That's not looking likely at this point.

Stay tuned, have a great weekend... and be ready for more potential snow Monday.

PH

Record December chill kept 2010 from being warmest in history

Posted at 5:15 PM on January 5, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: 2010 highlights, Climate, Climate change

It looks like 2010 will go down in history as the 3rd warmest year on record globally. If not for widespread record cold in December, it would have been the warmest.

Widespread and record cold (and snow) blasted large sections of the globe in December.

-Twin Cities temperatures ran -2.3 degrees in December. A record 33.6" of snowfall buried the metro and much of Minnesota. The early season snow blitz has put the Twin Cities on track for the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record!

-December's cold wave penetrated all the way down to Florida. Many locations in Florida shivered through the coldest December on record since 1890.

From the Tampa NWS:

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
940 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

A GOOD PART OF DECEMBER 2010 WAS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 7 TO OVER 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS COLD WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) WHICH WAS HIGHLY NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE MONTH AND DOMINATED THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES PLACED MOST SITES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN."

(Thanks to my colleague and MN Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for the data)

-Britain also recoded the coldest December on record and the 5th coldest month ever in recorded history.

From the UK Met Office:

"Record cold December 2010

The mean temperature for the UK has been -1.0 °C, well below the long term average of 4.2 °C. The previous coldest December in the series was 0.1 °C, in 1981."

Thanks to MPR colleague and UM Professor Dr. Mark Seeley for the info. You can read more at Mark's Weather Talk site here.

The World Meteorological Organization reports that 2010 is likely to be the 3rd warmest year on record globally. The just completed decade of the 2000's is also the warmest decade on record.

From the WMO:

"Cancun/Geneva (WMO) - The year 2010 is almost certain to rank in the top 3 warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2010 (January-October) is currently estimated at 0.55°C ± 0.11°C1 (0.99°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. At present, 2010's nominal value is the highest on record, just ahead of 1998 (January-October anomaly +0.53°C) and 2005 (0.52°C)2. The ERA-Interim3 reanalysis data are also indicating that January-October 2010 temperatures are near record levels. The final ranking of 2010 will not become clear until November and December data are analyzed in early 2011. Preliminary operational data from 1-25 November indicate that global temperatures from November 2010 are similar to those observed in November 2005, indicating that global temperatures for 2010 are continuing to track near record levels.

Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.03°C above the 2000-09 average and the highest value ever recorded for a 10-year period. Recent warming has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic; the Saharan/Arabian, East African, Central Asian and Greenland/Arctic Canada sub-regions have all had 2001-10 temperatures 1.2 to 1.4°C above the long-term average, and 0.7°C to 0.9°C warmer than any previous decade."

NOAA's NCDC has not yet crunched their complete numbers for 2010, but data through November shows 2010 was the warmest year on record through November. The record chill in December will likely drop the final 2010 tally to 2nd or 3rd.

The bottom line is 2010 was yet another "top 5 warmest year on record" globally, and yet another solid piece of evidence that our planet is not "cooling" as some claim.

PH

December cold bucks 2010 temp trend

Posted at 8:42 AM on December 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Cold

Welcome to Decemberrrrr.

We're almost a full week into the month, and so far December is bucking the trend of warmth in Minnesota in 2010. 7 of the past 8 months have featured above average temperatures in Minnesota. This month, temperatures in the Twin Cities are running a full 8 degrees below average!

It all began with the first snowless March on record for many Minnesota locations. Here's the lowdown on monthly temperatures in the metro (which mirror most of Minnesota) this year.

2010 temps vs. average at MSP Airport (F)

January -0.1
February -0.4
March +8.9
April +8.3
May +1.4
June +0.8
July +3.1
August +6.4
September -0.8
October +5.3
November +2.8
December -8 (so far)

That makes 8 months above average, and 3 months within 1 degree below average this year so far. Even with a cold December, Minnesota will finish the year with well above average temperatures for 2010.

Mirrors global trend in 2010:

In spite of a cold December in much of the northern hemisphere, it looks like 2010 will go down as one of the warmest years on record globally. Here's the data through October of 2010 from NOAA. (November data is due in next week)

"The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for the January-October period tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record. This value is 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average."

During October, warmth was most pronounced in Canada and the USA, and in Russia, the Middle East and Africa. Europe saw cooling as did the tropical Pacific, which reflects the growing La Nina.

Overall the global warmth in 2010 marks yet another year that rivals the hottest year on record in 1998 and 2005. Even with a chilly December in much of the northern hemisphere, we remain at or near the warmest temperature levels in the past 131 years plus, with no sign of a "global cooling" trend according to NOAA data.

Florida freeze continues:

Meanwhile the weather in Florida (and yes, there is a difference between climate and weather!) continues to bring freezing temperatures to critical citrus growing areas. (Can you say higher O.J. prices at the store soon?)

Locations such as Ocala in north central Florida dipped to 28 degrees this morning, and another frosty night is on tap tonight into Wednesday morning.

While 28 degrees would be welcome to most Minnesotans this week, it's a big deal in northern Florida, where citrus farmers scramble to deal with freezing weather.

Enjoy the rare sun today, and quiet but cold weather through Wednesday. I'm still keeping an eye on a clipper that may graze Minnesota Thursday.

PH

Happy meteorological winter! (More snow Friday?)

Posted at 8:33 AM on December 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Snow, Winter storms

Welcome to Decemberrrrrr.

Or as us weather geeks like to say, happy meteorological winter!

December 1st marks the start of meteorological winter or the three coldest months of the year in the northern hemisphere. (Dec-Jan-Feb) During December average temperatures drop about 10 degrees in Minnesota. In the Twin Cities, the average high is 32 today...22 by New Year's Eve. Average lows dip from 22 to 6! (Ouch!)

We see about 10 inches of snow on average in the Twin Cities during December, but of course that number can vary wildly from year to year. What's that old saying...there really is no average weather...just a bunch of random extremes?

The winter solstice occurs on December 21st at 5:38pm. This will feature the lowest sun angle and shortest daylight of the year...then the days get longer!

At least December usually gets sunnier. November is our cloudiest month of the year with just 39% of possible sunshine on average. In December that number climbs to 42%...January 53%. Skies get sunnier as cold dry arctic air tends to take hold. At least there's hope for brighter days ahead!

November 2010: Mild again

Temperatures in Twin Cities averaged +2.8 degrees in November. This marks 8 of the past 9 months dating back to our rare snowless March that temps have been above average in the metro and Minnesota.

We shoveled 9.8" of snow in November in the Twin Cities. That's almost dead on the November average, which is 10".

Heavy snowfall totals west of the metro on November 29 & 30.

Friday Clipper?

The forecast models are advertising the potential for our next snow maker Friday and Friday night. A clipper like system will slide east from Montana/Wyoming Friday, and will likely spread a shield of snow east as warm air tries to overrun our cold dome near the surface. It looks like all snow with this one...no pesky rain/snow line to deal with.

This colder system should feature a drier more powdery snow. The snow:water ratio could be 15:1 with this system...meaning it will take less water to pile up a few inches.

The forecast models are cranking out the potential for about .30" to .50" of liquid equivalent or so somewhere in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning. You can do the math to see that could be a "plowable" snow event. Somebody in southern Minnesota could see the potential for 3" to 6" with this system...but it's too early to say where (or if?) that may happen.

Models hint at potentially significant snow Friday for the metro.

The forecast tracks of clippers are notoriously fickle, and precip amounts otften too high in early model runs. I'll have to see a few more model runs to see if the system tracks further south. The models have a tendency to steer these systems south over time. If it does...that could spell the difference between placing the heavier snow band in the metro...or along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

The "meteorologically responsible" thing to do at this point is to alert for the possibility of snow...and leave the "inches" forecast until a few more model runs (hopefully) agree on the storm track and precip output.

Stay tuned, but be prepared for the possibility of slick travel and "shovelable" snow Friday PM (& PM rush hour!) into Saturday morning.

PH

Forecast: Milder Friday & Sunday...cold Turkey Day

Posted at 8:55 AM on November 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate

Our roller coaster temperature ride continues this November.

Get set for more day to day changes as we head into the weekend.

Milder air will begin to pull north into Minnesota tonight. This might be one of those nights where we see steady or rising temps overnight as south winds kick in and push milder air north. We call it "warm advection" in meteorology, and it could lead to sunshine and temps near 40 in southern Minnesota Friday.

A cool front will slide by later Friday, leading to a cooler Saturday before another stronger warm front lifts north Sunday. Sunday could be the warmest day for at least the next week....and maybe for the foreseeable future with temperatures again pushing 40 in some areas!

Coldest Thanksgiving in 5 years?

This may end up being the coldest Thanksgiving Day in Minnesota since 2005, when the high struggled to hit 21 degrees in the metro. The Minnesota Climate Working Group has a great summary of Thanksgiving Day weather here.

A look at Thanksgiving Day temperatures going back to 1989 shows several days with highs in the lower 20s.

Narration from the MN Climate Working Group.

Thanksgiving Day Climatology in the Twin Cities: 1891-2009

It occasionally rains on Thanksgiving Day as well. In 1896, a two-day event in the Twin Cities doused Thanksgiving travelers with nearly three inches of rain.

A shot of arctic air is due to slide right over Minnesota Thanksgiving Day. The exact magnitude of the cold is still to be determined, but it's safe to say highs may be in the teens in northern Minnesota and low 20s south. You'll have no problem keeping the leftovers and beverages chilled on the back porch this year!

China to melt snow for water crisis?

MNDOT may want to watch this one.

The Chinese will collect and melt snow this winter in an effort to ease a brewing water crisis.

According to the Global Times, two vehicles with high-powered heaters capable of processing 3,500 cubic feet of snow and ice an hour will be sent to locations around Tiananmen Square.

Clean snow will also be dumped into dammed sections in three rivers that run through the city to be used for road cleaning, irrigation and to supplement the rivers' water levels.

The Chinese have an active weather modification program, it remains to be seen how successful it is, but it's worth watching.

Cloudy November?

November is on average our cloudiest month of the year in Minnesota. The Twin Cities averages only about 39% of possible sunshine this month. We got off to a sunny start...but the clouds and November blahs have finally caught up with us. Look for a little more sunshine as we head toward the weekend.

The sooner the better, in the eyes of this weatherman.

PH

Saturday's snow storm unique in many ways

Posted at 5:10 PM on November 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Snow

I spent the morning looking ahead at Thanksgiving week.

I find myself spending the afternoon looking back at last weekend's amazing snow storm.

10" of fresh snow coats the weather lab deck rail last Saturday.

Saturday's early season snow system was unique in several aspects. The Twin Cities NWS put out an excellent review here, but I think the system is worth another close look.

-From a thermal perspective it was a "Goldilocks Storm"...not too warm, not too cold...just right for generating heavy snow. Temperatures in the critical lowest mile of the atmosphere were just below freezing...perfect for generating big, rapidly accumulating snowflakes. (Stellar dendrites)

Morphology diagram shows snowflake types favored at different temperatures. Image courtesy of snowcrystals.com.
(Click to enlarge)

-The heavy snow band was remarkably narrow. In some places in northern Iowa the area accumulating 6" or more was only about 30 miles wide! Along I-90 in southern Minnesota the storm laid down only about an inch in Worthington and Albert Lea...and dumped around 10" in between at Fairmont.

Twin Cities NWS snowfall totals from Saturday's "narrow" snow band.

Even in the southeast Twin Cities metro area snowfall totals ranged from around an inch to over 6" in just a few miles.

Now you know why forecasters can get white knuckled about a mere 30 mile shift in the storm track!

-The storm was a classic "comma shape" system on the satellite loop. This is how you draw them up in the weather textbooks.

-The surface low track was ideal for heavy snow in the west metro. The low tracked from eastern Iowa into western Wisconsin Saturday.

-The storm generated significant lift or "upward vertical velocity" at its peak early Saturday. This caused small thunderstorms to develop near the storm's core, generating "thundersnow" or convective snow bursts. Snowfall rates reached 2" per hour early Saturday morning near the Twin Cities in these convective snow bands.

From a climatological standpoint, the storm packed rare potency for a pre-Thanksgiving system in Minnesota. (Data confirmed by Twin Cities NWS)

-Snowfall total of 8.0" was officially observed at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport

-Since 1997, this was only the third six inch or greater official snowfall in the Twin Cities during meteorological autumn (Sept-Nov)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE NOVEMBER 13TH WINTER STORM...

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED AS IT MOVED FROM CENTRAL IOWA EARLY ON THE
13TH TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY ON THE 14TH. THIS FAVORED
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND WAS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY
THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 3 WSW MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 1111 PM
11.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0700 AM
11.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1030 AM
11.00 1 SSW WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0400 PM
10.70 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0231 PM
10.40 WSW LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
10.40 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
10.10 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0102 PM
10.00 3 N FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0104 PM
10.00 SW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0216 PM
10.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0951 AM
10.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 1130 AM
10.00 AMBOY MN BLUE EARTH 0930 AM
9.60 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0700 AM
9.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0819 AM
9.50 VADNAIS HEIGHTS MN RAMSEY 0708 PM
9.50 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0258 PM
9.20 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0600 AM
9.20 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 0703 PM
9.20 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0703 PM
9.10 WACONIA MN CARVER 0700 AM
9.00 1 NE MINNESOTA LAKE MN BLUE EARTH 0953 PM
9.00 3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1243 PM
9.00 CHISAGO CITY MN CHISAGO 0301 PM
8.60 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0600 AM
8.60 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1025 AM
8.50 1 SE CHASKA MN CARVER 0148 PM
8.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0505 PM
8.40 1 SE HENDERSON MN LE SUEUR 0600 AM
8.30 5 SE ELK RIVER MN ANOKA 0148 PM
8.20 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0715 PM
8.00 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM
MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
8.00 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0703 PM
7.70 3 NW AFTON MN WASHINGTON 0726 AM
7.70 4 NE WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0600 AM
7.30 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
7.20 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
7.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
6.70 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0703 PM
6.50 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 1024 AM
6.50 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0700 AM
5.50 3 N QUAMBA MN KANABEC 0712 AM
5.00 1 E CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0205 PM
5.00 CANNON FALLS MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
5.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0600 AM
4.80 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
4.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
4.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM
3.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0712 AM
3.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0700 AM
3.00 2 SE CHETEK WI BARRON 0600 AM
3.00 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 1111 PM
2.90 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0700 AM
2.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0813 AM
2.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0700 AM
2.30 3 WNW LADYSMITH WI RUSK 0600 AM
2.10 SPRING VALLEY WI PIERCE 0800 AM
2.00 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM
2.00 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0600 AM
2.00 2 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0600 AM
1.10 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0700 AM
1.10 N WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0700 AM
0.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1201 AM

GOES visible satellite shows the snow cover this weekend.

The "anything goes" year of 2010 continues to amaze and deal us weather records.

I can't wait to see what's left in the next 6 weeks!

PH

Minnesota 2010: Top 10 warmest year on record?

Posted at 8:45 AM on November 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather

Welcome to another warm day in November.

This follows a warm of October (+5.3), a warm summer, a snowless March that was 8.9 degrees above average. Add it all up and what do you get? Possibly one of the 10 warmest years on record in Minnesota.

If you look at temperatures so far this year in the Twin Cities, it appears we're on pace for a top 10 warmest year. Not including November, temperatures are running about +3.3 degrees so far in 2010.

Of course, we still have November and December to go in the books. We're off and running in November, a full 6.3 degrees above average so far through the first 8 days, with at least 2 more significantly above average days on the way. That will put us about 7 degrees above average through the first 10 days of the month....but with much cooler air on the way in the next 1-2 weeks.

There is no way to tell what December will bring, but another above average month could put us in the top 10 warmest years on record for Minnesota looking all the way back to 1891. That's 118 years of data.

Here are the top 5 warmest years on record in the metro: The yearly average temperature for the Twin Cities is 45.2 degrees.

1) 1931 50.9 degrees
2) 1987 49.7 degrees
3) 2006 49.3 degrees
4) 1998 48.8 degrees
5) 2005 48.2 degrees

Stay tuned.

Chaotic weather pattern starts Wednesday:

Get ready for some big weather changes starting Wednesday in Minnesota.

A potent upper low and it's surface reflection will wind up and bump east into Minnesota by late Wednesday. The day will be breezy, and there may be a narrow band of thunderstorms late in the day sweeping from southwest to northeast.

There appears to be enough instability to kick off a few severe storms late Wednesday. With the relative amount of spin or "helicity" in the atmosphere high, there is even the rare November potential for an isolated tornado or two. Yes...I said tornado. And yes, I know, it's November.

The SPC has some interesting language in Wednesday's severe weather outlook discussion.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

WHILE WEAK...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A NARROW BROKEN LINE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Pretty remarkable stuff when we should be talking about snow storms in November. But then again. this is the "anything goes" weather year that is 2010!

"Low confidence" forecast:

Forecast models are all over the place when it comes to the late week weather set up. A wave of low pressure sliding up from the south brings a change fo cold rain or snow Friday to areas from the metro south & east. It may evolve into significant snow for parts of Wisconsin Saturday.

A third wave of cold low pressure may bring snow showers to much of Minnesota by Sunday.

Bottom line: It's going to look and feel a lot more like winter around here by the weekend.

Stay tuned!

In the meantime enjoy temps pushing 70 today in southern Minnesota. The record for the Twin Cities today is 70 degrees. We'll probably fall short in the upper 60s, but it should be a good run!

PH

Remarkable October

Posted at 8:43 AM on November 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Fall

It's hard to believe we woke up to November this morning.

A nearly perfect Halloween made for great trick for treating this year. Our high Sunday was 49, and light winds with temps in the 40s made for ideal Halloween night weather. Oh how I remember those parka-clad Halloween nights of the frigid 1970s. If this is climate change in Minnesota, at least Halloween weather seems to be improving for the little ghouls and goblins.

An October to remember:

October was another remarkable and record setting month in Minnesota's "anything goes" weather year of 2010. "Expect the unexpected" somebody once said, and 2010 is all that for Minnesota. Here are some of the highlights for October 2010:

-Minnesota all time record low barometric pressure record. October 26th (28.21") at Big Fork.

"Octobomb" winds up over Minnesota last Tuesday.

-Warmest October in 47 years! (since1963)

-Longest dry spell in 30 years ended October 23rd

-10th latest frost on record (October 28th)

-Growing season 2010 was 171 days... a full 10 days longer than average. (May 9th-October 27th

-Warm October makes 7 of the past 8 months above average in Minnesota.
Election Day weather good:

Election Day weather looks good in Minnesota. A cold front will cut into northwest Minnesota late Tuesday bringing a few showers, but most of Minnesota will enjoy dry mild weather Tuesday. The front will slide south brining a chance of showers overnight for southern Minnesota.

Roller coaster temps:

Expect roller coaster temps this week. Tuesday may be as close as we come to Indian Summer this year. Highs may approach 60°F ahead of a cool front sagging south on Wednesday. The bottom of the coaster will feature a bracing wind chill on Thursday, before things warm up again by next weekend. Saturday may feature milder breezes with temps in the 50s to near 60 again.

The computers are hinting at the possibility of much colder weather next week.

Enjoy the quiet and relatively mild start to November.

PH

NOAA: A real Minnesota winter?

Posted at 5:48 PM on October 21, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has been busy lately reading the seasonal outlook tea leaves. This winter, they may come up cold and white for Minnesota.

NOAA's CPC released the official winter outlook today. The big player this year? La Nina. The cooling ocean temps in the tropical Pacific Ocean statistically favor colder than average winter conditions in the Upper Midwest. It's not a slam dunk, but the dice are loaded for colder than average winters (about 70% of the time) during La Nina years.

Ocean temps cooling in the tropical Pacific.

The outlook does divide Minnesota into two areas this year. The CPC favors northern Minnesota for above average snowfall and colder than average temperatures. The outlook for the southern half of Minnesota calls for equal chances of above/ near and below average conditions this winter.

The Twin Cities received just 40.7" of snowfall last winter. Average snowfall for the metro is 55.9" for the winter season. My boss at MPR Steve Nelson put me on the spot today asking me how much snow I thought we would get this winter. I told him I though we would get more snow than last year, and probably end up somewhere closer to our average snowfall of 55.9" Let's hope I'm not scraping too much egg off my face next spring!

PH

NOAA: 2010 warmest year on record to date

Posted at 8:52 AM on October 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

2010 remains on pace to be the warmest year on record globally.

That's the headline form NOAA's State of The Climate report for September 2010.

According to NOAA, global surface temperatures (land and ocean) are running +1.17°F above the 20th Century average. That puts 2010 slightly ahead of 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year on record globally.

17 countries have broken all time high temperature records this year. The records have come in both hemispheres, with new all time records in Finland (99°F), Russia (101.2°F), Pakistan (128.3°F) and Columbia (108°F).

The data continues the pronounced trend of warming observed since the 1980s, and refutes ideas by climate skeptics who claim the earth has been "cooling" since 1998.

The 10 warmest years on record globally have all occurred since 1998. The decade of 2000 through 2009 was the warmest on record in the past 131 years of data according to NOAA.

The dot graph below shows the temperatures relative to average for September. Alaska, Western Greenland and the Middle East were much warmer than average last month. You can see some cooling relative to the strengthening La Nina in the tropical Pacific.

Some have argued that the earth is heading for a cooler phase. The warmth of 2010 continues the unmistakable warming trend that has been in progress for the past 30 to 50 years.

Stormy pattern brewing next week?

It looks like our streak of dry weather may come to an end next week.

A potentially wet pattern is emerging for late October in the Upper Midwest. Medium range models like the GFS are cranking out two distinct storm systems. The fist could bring widespread rainfall next Monday and Tuesday.

The models are all over the place for Halloween weekend, but some model runs bring much colder temperatures, and hint at a strong pre-Halloween storm system that could bring wind, rain, and possibly even snow to parts of Minnesota by Halloween weekend. It's too early to tell how much rain (or potentially snow) could fall in parts of Minnesota, but the weather maps are looking a little scary as we head toward Halloween.

GFS model cranks up a fall rain storm by next Monday & Tuesday in the Upper Midwest.

Enjoy another dry and relatively mild week, and get ready for a change to a much cooler and wetter pattern next week.

PH

Enjoy the dry weather

Posted at 4:43 PM on August 25, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate

In the weather business we know that you can only run a string of nice days together for so long. Here's the six to ten day precipitation outlook for the period August 31st to September 4th from the Climate Prediction Center.

This period of dry and increasingly warm weather will give way to better chances for precipitation as we head into next week. Making plans to attend this year's Fair, keep this graphic in mind. Of course rain falling from 10pm to 6am doesn't spoil plans too much. Details on impending precipitation forthcoming, as determined by your favorite meteorologist.

According to the State Climate Office there was less than a tenth of an inch of moisture measured in the proximity of the Fair Grounds for the 2009 run of the Fair.

Here's a nice write-up by the DNR Climate Office on historical weather at the Minnesota State Fair.
CE

Heavy rain & thunder: Greenland ice & climate change

Posted at 8:26 AM on August 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Heat, Severe weather

How do you spell relief?

R-A-I-N.

That's our best hope today for temporarily breaking the back of our August heat wave.

A warm front gurgling north out of Iowa today is pushing scattered rain into southern Minnesota. The morning showers and embedded thunder are mostly garden variety summer showers with locally heavy downpours.

Update 10:15pm:

The Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven reports 1.25" of rain in the past hour. Rain was torrential, and came with wind gusts to at least 45mph.

An urban flood advisory has been issued for the Twin Cities metro for a quick shot of 1" to 2" of rain. Expect localized street flooding with torrential downpours as storms pass through late morning into midday. Gusty winds to 45 mph will also accompany storms.

Severe weather may increase later this afternoon and tonight.

The threat for severe storms will increase by late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlights some uncertainty in the forecast, but hints at the potential for a few storms to reach severe criteria later today. Keep in mind the threshold for a severe thunderstorms is winds of at least 58mph and or 1" diameter hail.

The highest threat for sever weather appears to be in southwest and south central Minnesota today.

Heavy rain possible:

The main feature of tonight's weather system may be heavy rain. The forecast models ar cranking out anywhere from .50" to well over an inch of rain through Wednesday morning. Another timely free watering is on the way for gardens, lawns and farm fields in Minnesota which are set to deliver record crop numbers this year.

August heat wave:

One step outside and you know it's been stiflingly hot this month. You can barely catch a breath with Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels.

After enduring our hottest day so far this year on Sunday with a blazing 96 degrees in the metro, Monday threw a 95 up on the board Monday. The numbers tell the story this month.

August temps so far: +7.4 degrees
4 days at or above 90 (out of 9 so far in August)
12 days at or above 90 this year (annual average is 13, and we will likely exceed that number this week)

Look for at least 2 more 90 degree days this week before a cold front sweeps away the heat and humidity by Saturday bringing welcome relief.

2010: Year of the tornado:

By my count and Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climatology office, we've seen about 47 tornadoes skip across Minnesota this year. That's nearly twice the long term annual average of about 25, and even higher than the more recent decadal average of around 40. It appears the trend is for tornado alley to be shifting north, and Minnesota has been ground zero for twisters this year.

Massive Greenland ice chunk breaks off:

No doubt you've heard about the massive chunk of glacial ice that broke off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier this past week. Check out these amazing numbers.

-The ice chunk is 4 times the size of Manhattan Island

-The calved glacier is 600 feet thick (now that's an ice cube)

-This is the largest Arctic iceberg to break off in 48 years, since 1962

So is it climate change?

According to Dr. Jay Zwally of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...yes. Dr. Zwally has spent a career studying glaciers and climate, and says this is "100%" attributable to climate change. The Arctic is warming at a rate 3 to 4 times faster than the lower altitudes, and this is contributing to massive loss of glacial and sea ice in the Arctic regions.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Other scientists are divided on the issue.

I've always said you can't use one year or one event as evidence of global climate change. But consider the evidence for 2010, which continues the long term trend of an overheated planet.

-2010 is the hottest year on record so far
-At least 7 countries have set new all time record highs this year
-Record heat, record fires and thick smoke choking Moscow and Russia
-Largest iceberg in 48 years breaks off from Greenland
-The past decade is the hottest on record
-The 2000s were hotter that the 1990s, which were hotter than the 1980s, which were hotter than the 1970s.

This is either the mother of all coincidences, or this planet is on course for even more heat and rapid earth changes over the next 10 years.

PH

Return of La Nina may mean a "real" winter

Posted at 4:50 PM on August 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Aurora, Climate, Northern lights, Phenology

Soak up all the heat and humidity summer has left folks. La Nina is back.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center officially confirmed today what meteorologists and climatologists have been watching fo a while, La Nina returned in July.

La Nina is the cool phase of what's known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean fluctuate every 3 to 5 years between the warm El Nino phase and cool La Nina episodes. The latest readings show sea surface temperatures around -1.0 degree Celsius in much of the tropical Pacific.

La Nina has widespread impacts around different parts of the globe. It can enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Though the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, The National Hurricane Center today updated its seasonal forecast to continue the prediction of an active season.

For Minnesota and much of the USA, the effects of La Nina are most pronounced in winter. La Nina winters have a statistical bias toward being colder than average in the Upper Midwest. Winters can also trend snowier in Minnesota, especially when compared to El Nino winters like last year. The Twin Cities received 40.7" of snowfall last year. The 30 year average is 55.9".

Cricketometer:

Have you noticed how loud the crickets are these nights? It seems as if a cricket boom has hit the weather lab. The deafening roar can be beautiful to some, and annoying to others.

Female (left) an Male (right) crickets image by Jim Mason. Courtesy Great Plains Nature Center web site.

No matter what you think of crickets sounding off at night, you can use the little buggers to approximate the temperature. Here's how:

Count the number of "chirps" in 15 seconds and add 37. That should give you a close approximation of the current temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. This is a fun exercise for kids of all ages on a warm summer night.

My favorite local phenologist Jim Gilbert used to say that cicadas would only sing (sounds more like screaming to me!) when the air temperature reached about 80 degrees. I guess they like the warmth to get those "cicada pipes" in action.

Cicada stands guard Photo credit: Bruce Marlin

One more shot at northern lights?

There may be one last shot of solar wind headed for the earth tonight according to spaceweather.com. Keep an eye out if you are out late tonight for possible auroras in the northern sky. Best viewing is away from lights looking north.

PH

Dog Days: Steamy & stormy

Posted at 8:30 AM on July 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Heat, Severe weather

Welcome to July in Minnesota.

We complain all year that it's too cold, too windy, too this, too that. Here it is. You want 80? Gotcha covered. You want humidity? Can do. Sweltering 90s and big boomers? On the way.

I remember when we were kids (a loooong time ago!) in Minnesota and in January somebody would always say; "Boy I wish it was hot like July for just one day!" Then in July....we'd wish it was like fall again.

It looks like many weather wishes and fantasies will come true this week. We'll see perfect summer days, stifling heat and humidity, big storms and a cool almost "fallish" breeze by mid-week.

Here's the outlook:

Monday: Summer's finest. Mostly sunny warm and increasingly humid. Dew points climbing through the 60s. Spotty thunderstorms far west. Highs near 88 metro, 80 far north. Wind S 5-15 mph.

Tuesday: Uncomfortably hot & humid! Highs 94 to 97 south, including the metro. Dew points near 70. Strong to severe T-Storms moving north (AM & daytime) to south (late PM & evening). Wind south 10-20 mph.

Wednesday & Thursday:

Really nice! Noticeable drop in humidity with dew points falling into the upper 50s. Highs near 80 south, 70s north. Wind NW 10-20mph Wednesday, 5-10mph Thursday.

Friday into the weekend: Muggy again with increasing chances for thunder. Highs in the 80s.

July 2010: Warm again

July temperatures are running 3.4 degrees above average as we enter the last week of the month. This is the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota this year.

We've had 4 days at or above 90 degrees this month, with a total of 7 days this year of 90-plus. The average number of 90 degree days for the summer is about 13 days.

One day heat wave:

Day #8 of 90 degree weather will occur Tuesday as heat and humidity will surges north ahead of an advancing cold front. Some forecasting techniques yield a high temperature of between 95 and 97 degrees Tuesday from the metro south. Dew points will approach 70, so you'll feel like you're swimming in a free sauna. Heat indices should climb above 100 Tuesday.

Severe threat:

As the cold front pushes south Tuesday, severe storms will again rumble across the state. Unlike the last few outbreaks, these storms will come from the northwest and work south.

SPC has a slight risk for storms in Minnesota. It looks like storms will fire in northern Minnesota during the day, and rumble into the southern half of the state later in the afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging wind and hail, but there could be a few tornadoes as the storms get going Tuesday PM.

Enjoy the last week of July!

PH

Mid summer report card

Posted at 5:40 PM on July 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Summer

Welcome to mid summer.

July 16th marks the halfway point of meteorological summer (June 1 -August 31) in the northern hemisphere.

So how has the first half of summer 2010 treated Minnesota? Let's crunch the numbers.

Temperature: A+

So far in 2010 temperatures in Minnesota are running warmer than average, and much warmer than last summer.

Twin Cities: Temps so far are running nearly 2 degrees wamer than average through July 15th. June was about 1 degree above average, and July temperatures are running +4.3 degrees so far!

Last year temperatures were 2 degrees cooler than average. Temperatures this summer are running about 4 degrees warmer than last summer so far.

The temperature has spiked to 90 degrees 5 days so far in 2010 in the Twin Cities. The average to date is about 7. Last year we also had five 90 degree days to this point in the year.

Comments: It's been warm and summery, but not too hot so far this year. The air is warm; the lakes are warm and swimmable.

Rainfall: B+

Most locations in Minnesota have received ample rainfall so far this summer. The exception continues to be the North Shore, where drought conditions linger.

The Twin Cities has recorded 7.89" of rainfall since June 1st. That's 1.7" above average, and a full 4.77" above 2009 to date!

UM climate guru Mark Seeley tells me today there have been 18 days with thunderstorms in the Twin Cities so far in 2010. That's about average. Mark will have more on that on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer tomorrow at 6:45am.

The latest tornado tally in Minnesota this year is 36, including the NWS surveys for Wednesday's tornadoes. That's well above average. The long term annual average for Minnesota is about 24 tornadoes. In recent decades, that number has risen to near 40 per year.

Comments: After a quiet start to severe weather season, we've had some big severe weather outbreak days. June 17th was one of the biggest tornado outbreaks in Minnesota history. The deadly outbreak caused 3 fatatities in Minnesota.

Rainfall has been plentiful and well timed in most of Minnesota so far this summer season. The early warm growing season and ample rain has been a boom for crop development this year.

Overall grade summer 2010 to date: A-
Does it get any better than this on a whole for Minnesota?

PH

June Monsoon: Wettest in 8 years

Posted at 8:00 AM on June 28, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Daylight, Rainfall

NWS storm total rainfall shows a band of 2" to 3" rainfall from near Marshall into the southern Metro Saturday night.

Welcome to the June Monsoon.

We've just experienced the wettest June in 8 years in the metro and much of Minnesota. So far this month, 6.25" of rain has fallen at Twin Cities International Airport. That's about 2.25" above average for the month, and marks the wettest June since 2002 when 8.30" fell in the Twin Cities.

Many communities in southern Minnesota have recorded similar rainfall totals.

NOAA rainfall analysis for the past 14 days shows general 2" to 4" rainfall in southern Minnesota, with some pockets of 6" rainfall. Some areas in Iowa picked up 6" to 10" during the past two weeks.

Severe storm reports spiked too.

Check this out from Twin Cities NWS today.

The number of preliminary severe weather reports in the NWS Chanhassen county warning area during the ten day stretch from June 17th-26th was 199. Prior to that, 23 reports of severe weather had been received. The amount of preliminary severe weather reports across the country has spiked as well during the same stretch, with June 17th being initially the most active tornado day in the country so far in 2010.

The weather maps insist the rest of June will remain dry, and the next chance of storms will not approach the region until late Saturday or Sunday.

Latest sunsets of the year this week:

Sunset behind Big Island on Lake Minnetonka Sunday June 27th. Note the crepuscular rays shooting up from above the sun. (Photo by Paul Huttner. Click for bigger image)

The suns sets this week in the Twin Cities at 9:03pm. This marks the latest sunset time of the year in the northern hemisphere. Here are some sunset times this week for select Minnesota locations. Since the sun sets north or due west this week, note that the sun sets later as you move northwest.

Rochester 8:56pm
Twin Cities 9:03pm
Redwood Falls 9:09pm
St. Cloud 9:10pm
Brainerd 9:13pm
Duluth 9:06pm
Ely 9:10pm
Moorhead 9:25pm
Bemidji 9:20pm
Roseau 9:30pm

Enjoy the longest evening daylight of the year this week!

PH

Classic June day: Then rain & thunder overnight

Posted at 8:41 AM on June 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Rainfall, Thunderstorms

This is how you draw it up on the weather maps for early June in Minnesota.

A classic June day today features plenty of sunshine, low humidity and mild temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 70s in most of Minnesota today, with 60s along the North Shore. Note to self...get the weather lab grass cut and get out and enjoy today.

Next system moves in tonight:

The jet stream is roaring overhead at about 20,000 feet above Minnesota these days. That means fast moving weather systems and rapid weather changes heading our way.

The next weather system will speed toward Minnesota and arrive tonight. Look for showers and thunderstorms to increase in western Minnesota this evening, and move east into eastern Minnesota after midnight. Rain should hang around into early Friday morning, but the system should move out quickly and allow a return to sunshine by Friday afternoon in most areas.

There is the potential (the hope?) for locally heavy downpours, thunder, some hail and gusty winds as the storms slide through southern Minnesota overnight. The best chance for severe weather will be along the I-90 corridor into Iowa, but there could be a few borderline severe storms elsewhere.

Heavy rain?

Forecast models are clustering rainfall totals between .50" and 1" with this next system. One model, the usually over aggressive NAM is cranking out 1.5" to 2" for the metro by Friday morning! That's likely on the high side, but it gives you the idea that there may be some locally heavy downpours if storms track over the same area.

NWS and forecast modles cranking out significant rainfall for the metro overnight.

Duluth: Warmest spring on record

Congratulations Duluth! You've just experienced the warmest spring on record. The months of March through May (meteorological spring) featured an average temperature of 45.6 degrees. This breaks the old record of 44.4 degrees set in the spring of 1977. International Falls tied with 1987 for the second warmest meteorological spring on record with an average temperature of 44.4 degrees. It fell just 0.1 degrees from the warmest spring in 1977.

My colleague Mark Seeley tells me the Twin Cities also finished with the 2nd warmest spring on record.

PH

June Thunder

Posted at 4:17 AM on June 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Severe weather, Springtime, Thunderstorms

Happy meteorological summer!

June 1st marks the start of meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere. The months of June, July & August are the three warmest months of the year in Minnesota, meteorologically speaking. Astronomical summer begins June 21st at 6:28 am CDT.

A cool front is crossing Minnesota today. As the front slides through, the atmosphere is unstable enough to trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. A few of these may reach severe limits. (wind gusts of 59 mph and/or hail 1" in diameter or greater)

Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe storms into southern Minnesota Tuesday.

With any strong to severe storms that do manage to form, the primary threat will be high winds and hail today. Still, you can never totally rule out an isolated tornado, or gustnado with severe rotating thunderstorms.

There could be scattered storms at any time today but the best chance for severe storms appears to be in a window between 2pm and 9pm. Keep an eye to the sky and have your weather radio handy today.

Warm & dry spring 2010:

May's final sunset on Lake Minnetonka Monday evening.

With temperatures running 1.4 degrees above average in the metro, May closes one of the warmest and driest springs on record in Minnesota.

Here are some numbers for the Twin Cities:

Temperature

March: +8.9 degrees
April: +8.3 degrees
May: +1.4 degrees

Spring 2010: +6.2 degrees!

The Twin Cities recorded 5.51" of rainfall this meteorological spring. That's 1.9" below average.

June: Warm and (usually) wet

June is typically our wettest and 3rd warmest month of the year in Minnesota.

Temperatures and humidity usually climb noticeably in June as summer kicks into high gear by mid month. In the Twin Cities the average high climbs from 75 today, to 82 by month's end. Average lows warm from 54 to 61.

With ample thunderstorms and tropical downpours at times, average rainfall in June is 4.34".

We may get our first shot of June rain today. Most areas, including the Huttner Weather Lab lawn and newly planted vegetable garden can use the rainfall!

PH

2010: Hottest year on record so far

Posted at 4:13 PM on May 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

NOAA reports today that 2010 is the hottest year on record globally so far from January through April. April is also the hottest on record globally.

2010 global temperature anomalies so far. Note the relative warmth over Canada and the Upper Midwest with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above average so far this year.
(click for bigger image)

Global temperature anomalies for April 2010.

Here are the highlights from the NOAA report:

•The combined April global land and ocean average surface temperature was the warmest on record at 58.1°F (14.5°C), which is 1.37°F (0.76°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F (13.7°C).

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was the warmest on record for January-April at 56.0°F (13.3°C), which is 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average.

•El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weakened in April, as sea-surface temperature anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weakening contributed significantly to the warmth observed in the tropical belt and the warmth of the overall ocean temperature for April. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to continue through June.

•Arctic sea ice was below normal for the 11th consecutive April, covering an average of 5.7 million square miles (14.7 million square kilometers). This is 2.1 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the 15th smallest April extent since records began in 1979. It was, however, the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001.

•Based on NOAA satellite observations, snow cover extent was the fourth-lowest on record (since 1967), and below the 1967-2010 average for the Northern Hemisphere for the seventh consecutive April. Warmer-than-normal conditions over North America, Europe and parts of Russia contributed to the small snow footprint.

•The North American snow cover extent for the month was the smallest on record for April. It also was the largest negative anomaly, meaning difference below the long-term average, on record for any month.

With 2010 now 1/3 complete, the globe in on pace for the hottest year on record.

Take a look at these remarkable facts from NOAA about the duration of warmer than average temperatures globally.

•April 2010 was the 302nd consecutive month with average global surface (land + ocean) temperature above the 20th century average.

◦The last April with below average temperatures occurred in 1976.

◦The last month with an average global surface (land + ocean) temperature below the 20th century average was February 1985.

Think about those facts for a minute. The odds of having 302 months in a row with above averge global temperatures is astounding. Not once in 25 years has the earth seen a single month cooler than the 20th century average.

Last October I posted that there were several indications that 2010 could be the hottest year on record globally. So far those indications are right on track.

PH

Amazing Spring 2010: Lilacs 3 weeks early

Posted at 3:04 PM on April 26, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Springtime

Lilac buds ready to open on a cool April morning at the Huttner Weather Lab.

Our amazing spring of 2010 continues. Last Friday I was stunned to see a row of common purple lilacs blooming in Deephaven. That's April 23rd!

According to long time Twin Cities phenologist Jim Gilbert's Nature Notes; this would put 2010 as one of the earliest lilac bloom years on record. The average date for the lilacs to open in the Twin Cities is around May 10th, with peak bloom the following week.

Jim's records from the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen show the early Flowering Crabapple peak bloom we're seeing now rivals the years of 1987 and 1997 when the trees also reached peak bloom in late April. Jim has observed the lilac bloom average dates have moved a full two weeks earlier in the past 40 years.

The triggers for our early spring blooms are the 4th warmest March and 2nd warmest April on record so far. This is pretty remarkable stuff when you consider that last year's lilac blooms occurred in May close to the average date.

PH

Iceland Volcano eruption sub-climatic; so far

Posted at 6:08 AM on April 16, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Volcanoes

It's still to early in the eruption process so far to say exactly what the long term effects the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano will be. But so far the eruption appears to be small enough to be sub-climatic in scale.

Ash plume rises from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano Thursday. (AP photo)

The prevailing westerly winds are driving the ash plume over Europe. The plume is big enough to be visible from space by weather satellites.

According to experts at the USGS, the volcano is capable of producing only regional effects so far. Unless the eruption gets much bigger, things may stay that way.

Here are some observations about the eruption at this point.

-Reports indicate the ash plume is ejecting material between 18,000 and 36,000 feet into the atmosphere. This is what's causing havoc with air traffic in Europe.

-So far there is not enough material being ejected into the atmosphere to cause climatic scale impacts.

-Reports and measurements indicate the glacial melt is effectively "scrubbing" some of the Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) out of the volcanic plume before it can reach the atmosphere. SO2 is the most effective gas when it comes to reflecting incoming sunlight and causing potential climatic scale cooling.

-The plume consists of fine scale rock and glass particles. Most of these particles range in size between 1/12th and 1/250,000 of an inch. These tiny particles can stay suspended for months or years in the upper atmosphere.

Mt. Pinatubo erupts in the Philippines in 1991.

This is a tiny eruption so far when compared historically to bigger volcanic events.

-Mt. Pinatubo's eruption in 1991 was rated a 6 on an eruption scale of 1 to 8. That eruption is credited with cooling the northern hemisphere 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit for 1 to 2 years.

-The gigantic Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815 is credited with causing the infamous "Year without a summer" in New England in 1816. Frost and snow in every month that summer caused widespread crop failures in the northeast United States.

PH

March 2010: Hottest ever globally

Posted at 4:55 PM on April 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change

If you feel like spring came early this year, you're in good company.

NOAA reports today that March 2010 was the warmest ever recorded globally. Also, global temperatures for the first quarter of 2010 (Jan-Mar) are the 4th warmest on record.

NOAA March 2010 temperature anomalies show much of the globe was warmer than average in March. Note the biggest (warmest) departures from average in Canada and the northern U.S. including Minnesota.
(Click for larger image)

From the NOAA release:

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record at 56.3°F (13.5°C), which is 1.39°F (0.77°C) above the 20th century average of 54.9°F (12.7°C).

•For the year-to-date, the combined global land- and ocean-surface temperature of 55.3°F (13.0°C) was the fourth warmest for a January-March period. This value is 1.19°F (0.66°C) above the 20th century average.

With 25% of 2010 in the books climatologically speaking, it looks like temperatures are on track for another top 5 or 10 "warmest year on record" globally.

PH