Updraft Category Archive: Climate change
MPR Live in North Minneapolis; Summery today; Storms tomorrow
Posted at 7:16 AM on May 22, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Tornadoes
Quick look forecast: (Click for bigger image)
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Source: Twin Cities NWS
1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado of May 22, 2011
After the Storm: An All Things Considered Special
MPR news live from North Minneapolis Tuesday
(All Things Considered with Tom Crann Tuesday from 3-6:30pm)
The tornado that hit North Minneapolis on May 22, 2011 resulted in two deaths, more than 3,700 damaged structures and millions of dollars in needed repairs. One year later, MPR News revisits the neighborhood to see how the recovery was managed, what gaps remain and what's next for the North Side.Join All Things Considered host Tom Crann for a special live broadcast from the University of Minnesota's Urban Research and Outreach Engagement Center in North Minneapolis on Tuesday, May 22 from 3:00 to 6:30 p.m. We will report on the North Side after the tornado, and Mayor R.T. Rybak, MPR meteorologist Paul Huttner, community leaders, activists and residents join Tom Crann to celebrate the progress, discuss lessons learned and consider strategies for the future. The event is free and open to the public.
Boating safety week this week
Here are some great tips for boaters this season.
There are no specific warnings or advisories for lightning but all thunderstorms produce lightning. A lightning strike to a vessel can be catastrophic, especially if it results in a fire or loss of electronics. If your boat has a cabin, then stay inside and avoid touching metal or electrical devices. If your boat doesn't have a cabin, stay as low as you can in the boat.
Next two months are the "brightest" days of 2012 in Minnesota
15+ hours of daylight from now until July 23rd
Tropical Storm Alberto - earliest Atlantic tropical storm since "Ana" in 2003
Windy & warmer Today
Growing T-Storm chances Wednesday PM & Thursday
North Minneapolis Tornado: 1 year after
Today marks a year since the EF1 North Minneapolis tornado. The twister is a reminder that urban tornadoes can and do occur, and that we're vulnerable to such events.
What strikes me most about the North Minneapolis tornado is the amount of damage a relatively "weak" EF1 tornado with 110 mph winds caused, and the disruption of lives that continues a year later.
Source: Twin Cities NWS
I don't even want to think about what will happen when the next EF3 or EF4 tornado tears through the Twin Cities metro with winds of 150mph to 200 mph. That's a completely different (and for most of us unimaginable) level of damage and destruction.
That's why we produced "Storm Ready?"... the joint tornado project last week with MPR News and KARE11.
Join us today from 3pm to 6:30pm during All Things Considered with Tom Crann as we mark 1 year since the North Minneapolis tornado. The MPR news team will cover numerous angles, and I'll be live in North Minneapolis with Tom Crann with an in depth discussion on the tornado that struck one year ago.
Brightest days of 2012 ahead!
Daylight lovers rejoice!
The next 9 weeks of the year are the "brightest" of 2102.
We're basking in more than 15 hours of daylight between now and July 23rd.
Daylight peaks at 15 hours and 36 minutes the week of the summer solstice, which occurs at 6:09pm on Wednesday June 20th.
These are the earliest mornings and longest evenings of the year in Minnesota and the northern hemisphere. The next 6 weeks are the best time to take that evening bike ride of get in a round of golf after (or before??) work.
http://www.die.net/earth/
One of my favorite things about this time of year is that the sun rises and sets well north of due east/west. You can notice sunlight on clear evenings shining on the north side of homes and into north facing windows in the early morning and evening.
Outlook: Pattern change ahead
A strong but balmy south wind will boost temperatures Tuesday. Bank thermometers will blink mid to upper 80s in southern Minnesota by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds gusting to and over 30 mph will whip up whitecaps on Minnesota lakes Tuesday.
The next frontal system arrives Wednesday with a chance of scattered T-Storms. The front will stall Wednesday night over Minnesota...and a second wave of low pressure will ride northeast along the frontal boundary Thursday.
The waves of showers and T-Storms have the potential to bring more tropical style downpours to Minnesota this week. Rainfall totals may exceed 1" to 2" by Thursday evening in many areas.
Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com
Tropical Storm Alberto: Earliest in 9 years!
Tropical Storm Alberto brushed the Carolina Coast over the weekend. The storm is the earliest to form in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003.
Source: NASA
WxUnderground's hurricane specialist Jeff Masters has some historical context.
Here's an excerpt.
Alberto in historical contextAlberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.
Native American moon names: A sign of climate change?
This month's Ojibwe moon name according my trusty Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar is the "budding plants moon."
The various Native American moon names say a lot about just how in tune these people were with our changing weather and seasons. They named the moons to describe what was happening in the environment each month of the year.
With our frost landscape fully "leafed out" now for nearly a month, clearly the landscape looks different these days than it did a hundred or more years ago when the moon names evolved.
The Native Americans were astute observers of changes in their environment, even early phenologists. The fact that monthly moon names no longer reflect the reality of our landscape may be as good as any sign that our climate is changing dramatically.
PH
Thursday thunder threat; 1st 90 by Friday? Extreme storms way up in MN
Posted at 6:16 PM on May 16, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change
Quick look forecast: (Click to enlarge)
Source: Twin Cities NWS
30% chance of scattered T-Storms Thursday
"Hot Front" pushes in Friday
90 degrees 1st metro 90 of 2012 possible Friday
Upper 90s possible in western Minnesota Friday!
Record warmth? 91/89 record highs at MSP Friday & Saturday
Taste of July Steamy temps more like July Friday & Saturday
Saturday night thunder - approaching cold front will spark storms Saturday night
Minnesota: Land of 10,000 extreme storms? Extreme rainfall events on the rise
All about waterspouts Excellent video and story from NOAA on these beautifully dangerous water twisters below
>
Thusrday Thunder Chance:
After 3 absolutely splendid, "chamber of commerce" type weather days in Minnesota, a warm front is pushing north early Thursday. The front is being pushed along by a "low level jet stream" ... a river of faster moving air about 5,000 feet above ground.
Low level jets are notorious for triggering "nocturnal" thunderstorms at night along warm frontal boundaries. Although upstream low level moisture is limited and should limit any severe threat, the front could spark a few "high based" T-Storms early Thursday morning riding eastward from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
Coverage may be spotty, but expect a few rumblers around Thursday.
"Hot Front" Friday:
Remeber the "extreme heat" in the Desert Southwest this week? A narrow plume of that "Continental Tropical" air mass is being injected ahead of low pressure into Minnesota Friday. Temps may soar as high as the upper 90s in many western Minnesota towns such as Canby, Madison, Ortonville and Pipestone.
Source: NWS
The Twin Cities may have a shot at our 1st 90 degree days of 2012 Friday, and possibly again Saturday.
Source: ISU
Where's the beach?
Saturday night Thunder:
The next cold front will cut into our summer weeknd air mass Saturday night. As it does, a band of thunderstorms should rumble eastward. Locally heavy rainfall could accompany some of the storms, especially in central and northern Minnesota.
Minnesota: Land of 10,000 extreme storms? Extreme rainfall events on the rise
We've known for years that extreme rainfall events are on the rise in Minnesota. My MPR colleague and UM climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley has talked amny times about the increase in extreme rainfall in Minnesota.
A new study released from a climate group in Colorado finds the rise in extreme rainfall events of 3" or more in Minnesota has doubled in the past decade, and that the storms now reccur about every 3 years, instead of every 7 years decades ago.
Source: Rocky Mountain Climate Organization
Here's an excerpt from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization study.
Since 1961, the Midwest has had an increasing number of large storms. The largest of storms, those of three inches or more of precipitation in a single day, increased the most, with their annual frequency having more than doubled over the 51 years.
Source: Rocky Mountain Climate Organization
All About Waterspouts:
Finally, check out this remarkably visual and infomrative video on waterspouts from NOAA. Pretty cool stuff!
Make it a great Thursday!
PH
Incredible March caps off warmest 12 months on record in USA
Posted at 12:02 PM on April 11, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
Our incredible March warmth capped off the warmest 12 months ever recorded in the USA! Details from NOAA:
"•The previous 12-month period (April-March), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The 12-month running average temperature was 55.4°F, which is 2.6°F above the 20th century average."
Check out this cool NOAA animation which shows the USA peppered with 15,000 temperature records in March.
Source: NOAA
More from NOAA here on the incredible month of March in the USA.
U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken
"First quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster"
Record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895. More than 15,000 warm temperature records were broken during the month.
The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months (117+ years) that have passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one month, January 2006, has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012.
Note: The March 2012 Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding the unprecedented early 2012 temperatures."
Source: NOAA
Heating Degree Day departure shows warmth centered on Minnesota and the Upper Miswest this winter.
Source: NOAA
•The cold season, which is defined as October 2011 through March 2012 and an important period for national heating needs, was second warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. with a nationally-averaged temperature 3.8°F above average. Only the cold season of 1999-2000 was warmer. Twenty-one states across the Midwest and Northeast, areas of the country with high annual heating demands, were record warm for the six-month period.
PH
No Foolin': Near 80 Sunday April 1st; IPCC links climate & extreme weather
Posted at 5:33 PM on March 29, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change
Showers taper Friday morning
Sunshine returns for this weekend
50 degrees - average high in the metro this weekend
60s in northern Minnesota this weekend
70s in the metro and southern Minnesota Saturday
80+ degrees possible in the metro and southern Minnesota Sunday
82 record high Sunday at MSP Airport
90 degrees possible Sunday in Sioux Falls, Luverne, Pipestone and Canby?
Source: NWS
"June-tastic" pattern returns this weekend:
March will go out like a little baby kitten this year. And April 1st will feel like June. No foolin'.
A big league warm front will push north this weekend ahead of a strong developing low pressure system in the northern Rockies.
The warm surge will push temperatures +20 to +30 degrees vs. average again this weekend, and should assure the warmest March on record at most Minnesota locations.
Most models are hinting at cooler (but still above average) weather next week to open April. 50s and 60s should be more common instead of the 70s and 80s we'll see this weekend.
Wind Map: Visualizing the invisible wind:
Check out this cool visualization of surface wind data from the National Digital Forecast Database.
Source: http://hint.fm/wind/
"(For those of you chasing top wind speed, note that maximum speed may occur over lakes or just offshore.)
These are forecasts, downloaded once per hour. So what you're seeing is close to live data. We'd be interested in displaying data for the entire earth; if you know of a source of detailed live wind data for the entire globe, please let us know."
IPCC Report: Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
A new report from the IPCC strengthens the cause-effect relationship between climate change and extreme weather.
The most alarming prediction from the report is that heat waves (like Minnesota had last summer that set record heat & dew points) that used to occur every 20 years on average... may now occur as often as every other year.
SOURCE: IPCC
More from the AP and Time:
(WASHINGTON) -- "Global warming is leading to such severe storms, droughts and heat waves that nations should prepare for an unprecedented onslaught of deadly and costly weather disasters, an international panel of climate scientists said in a new report issued Wednesday.
The greatest threat from extreme weather is to highly populated, poor regions of the world, the report warns, but no corner of the globe -- from Mumbai to Miami -- is immune. The document by a Nobel Prize-winning panel of climate scientists forecasts stronger tropical cyclones and more frequent heat waves, deluges and droughts.
The 594-page report blames the scale of recent and future disasters on a combination of man-made climate change, population shifts and poverty.
(PHOTOS: Cyclone Hits Southern India)
In the past, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, founded in 1988 by the United Nations, has focused on the slow inexorable rise of temperatures and oceans as part of global warming. This report by the panel is the first to look at the less common but far more noticeable extreme weather changes, which lately have been costing on average about $80 billion a year in damage."
"We mostly experience weather and climate through the extreme," said one of the report's top editors, Chris Field, an ecologist with the Carnegie Institution of Washington. "That's where we have the losses. That's where we have the insurance payments. That's where things have the potential to fall apart.
"There are lots of places that are already marginal for one reason or another," Field said. But it's not just poor areas: "There is disaster risk almost everywhere."
The report specifically points to New Orleans during 2005's Hurricane Katrina, noting that "developed countries also suffer severe disasters because of social vulnerability and inadequate disaster protection."
In coastal areas of the United States, property damage from hurricanes and rising seas could increase by 20 percent by 2030, the report said. And in parts of Texas, the area vulnerable to storm surge could more than double by 2080.
Already U.S. insured losses from weather disasters have soared from an average of about $3 billion a year in the 1980s to about $20 billion a year in the last decade, even after adjusting for inflation, said Mark Way, director of sustainability at insurance giant Swiss Re. Last year that total rose to $35 billion, but much of that was from tornadoes, which scientists are unable to connect with global warming. U.S. insured losses are just a fraction of the overall damage from weather disasters each year."
Here's the video from IPCC.
Source: IPCC via YouTube
PH
Unprecedented: Minnesota's warmest month ever vs. average?
Posted at 9:15 AM on March 27, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Record
+16.7 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport through March 26th
+15.1 degrees - warmest month ever vs. average in January 2006
(Looking at MN Climate Working Group data)
Warmest month ever vs. average? March 2012 is on pace to be the warmest month ever vs. average temp in 121 years of data
Windy Tuesday: Wind advisories flying for gusts to 40 mph today
80 by Sunday? Another May-June weekend ahead
Source: Twin Cities NWS
Uncharted Waters: We're #1?
We've sliced and diced our unreal (okay surreal) March "heat wave" a hundred different ways over the past two weeks. Here's one more...and try this on for a while.
This may end up as the warmest month ever compared to average at MSP Airport!
Through Monday March temperatures are running +16.7 degrees at MSP Airport according to the Twin Cities NWS.
Source: NWS
So far this March our average monthly temp at MSP is 48.3 degrees.
If we hold near that level through Saturday (quite possible) we could close out the month at or above 15.1 degrees above average for March.
If you look at records for the 12 months of the year in the metro...the warmest month ever compared to average was January 2006, when temps soared to +15.1 degrees vs. average.
If we sustain that average, March 2012 could be the warmest month ever when compared to average in the past 121 years of data for the Twin Cities.
We'll need to see where we end up this week, and wait for the climate gurus at MN Climate Working Group to crunch those numbers to confirm.
But this March is not just unreal, it may be the warmest month ever vs. average in Minnesota history.
More records fall:
I could bore you to death with the dozens of ways this month is blasting out records, but here are a select few that I think tell the story best.
(Courtesy of Twin Cities NWS)
Record Setting Weather For Temps and Moisture...Updated March 26th
"How unusual has the weather been across our area during mid-March? Here is a breakdown of the record conditions that have been noted from March 10th to present.
Record High Temperatures
Interesting statistics for the Twin Cities:
•As of March 23rd, the maximum temperature in the Twin Cities has reached or exceeded 70 degrees on 7 days, breaking the March record of 5 days set in 1910.
•The Twin Cities maximum temperature reached or exceeded 70 degrees for four consecutive days (March 16-19), breaking the previous record of three consecutive days which occurred on March 23-25, 1939 and March 22-24, 1945.
•When the Twin Cities temperature reached 80 degrees on March 17, it was the first 80 degree temperature since October 9, 2011. The span without 80 degree temperatures was 159 days, the fewest consecutive number of days without 80 degrees in the modern record.
•March 23 2011 through March 22 2012 was the warmest 365 day period on record, back to 1871, with an average temperature of 50.5 degrees.
•Temperatures in the Twin Cities haven't dropped below the average high temperature since March 13th.
These charts show the high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities (measured at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport), St. Cloud, and Eau Claire, as well as the record temperatures. Several new temperature records have been set since March 10th, when the unprecedented warm up began."
Source: NWS
Several Midwestern Cities are experiencing their warmest March on record including Milwaukee, Chicago, & St. Louis.
Is this the "new normal?"
Scientific American has a great piece on why some think this may be the new normal when it comes to our warming climate.
As we continue to melt critical ice sheets (48 cubic miles from the Greenland Ice sheet per year since the 1990s!)The lottery odds of the future may continue to favor extreme warmth such as we've seen this month.
By Nina Chestney
LONDON (Reuters) - "The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.
Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.
As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.
"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London."
Changeable week ahead:
Today's winds will bring a warm up and a brief run at 70 (we'll spend most of the day in the 60s), followed by a cool front that will drop highs back into the 50s Wednesday & Thursday.
Tuesday: Wind advsiory - SW gusts to 40 mph+ possible. High near 70, temps falling through the 60s late PM.
Wednesday: Bright sun. Cooler & less wind. High 54.
Thursday: Frosty start? Upper 30s early. Clouds & rain chances increase late PM & evening. High near 56.
Source: ISU
Friday: AM showers ending PM. High near 60.
Saturday: Mostly sunny & milder breezes. High near 70.
Sunday April 1st: Sunny breezy warm & humid?? High near 82.
(No foolin')
Source: ISU
Enjoy!
PH
Snow chances still lurking next week; Climate saga continues
Posted at 4:02 PM on February 15, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(6 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter 2011-12
0.8" of fluffy snow showers Wednesday PM in Waconia
Snow chances still linger for next week
4th warmest winter on record likely for metro
Climate change - science vs. policy
Weak upper air disturbance triggered a few snow showers Wednesday
(MNDOT cam)
Snow chances still loom next week?
I keep getting asked "Hey Huttner, are we going to get any snow soon?"
The answer is an unqualified yes, probably.
The forecast models are still trying to lock on to a change in the upper air pattern next week. The jet stream should snake down into the central USA next week. Exactly where it ends up will determine who get the snow, and who doesn't.
It still looks like Minnesota may be in line for a lighter snow system on Monday into Tuesday.
The models then suggest two major system later next week into the following weekend sweeping through the central USA. The latest (GFS) version takes the first one towards Chicago by next Wednesday. That track could produce heavy snow in Wisconsin.
A second strong system is advertised close to Minnesota by the following weekend.
GFS still hints at snow chances in the next two weeks.
Track errors can literally be hundreds of miles this far out, so it's too early to tell if these systems will materialize. But it's more than we've had to talk about for weeks. And the pattern change does suggest our chances for getting some serious Midwest snow continue to grow for next week.
Stay tuned!
Climate Chage 2.0: What we know and what some continue to deny
My MPR colleague Bob Collins has a great write up today about a new effort to obfuscate climate science in schools, and why "Climategate" was an unsuccessful attempt to discredit the overwhelming body of solid, credible climate science.
"Today's climate change debate is stoked by news of a "leaked" attempt by the so-called Heartland Institute to create a K-12 curriculum on climate change that appears to undermine the generally accepted science.
Discover's Bad Astronomy blog says the documents appear to be legit:
"[Dr. Wojick's] effort will focus on providing curriculum that shows that the topic of climate change is controversial and uncertain - two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science."
That seems clear enough, doesn't it? From that, it sure sounds like they want to dissuade teachers from teaching science. I imagine there will be a lot of spin about how this quote is out of context, or a typo, or something alone those lines. Perhaps. But I remember all the hammering real scientists took when they used jargon in their emails to each other, jargon which was gleefully misinterpreted to make it seem as if these scientists were faking data. Interesting how this is pointing right back at them. Just as I said it does.
When it comes to all this, the comparison to "Climategate" springs to mind, but there's one enormous difference: Climategate was manufactured, a made-up controversy (what I call a manufactroversy) that had no real teeth -- as was its failed sequel. The emails released weren't damning at all, and didn't show scientists tinkering with or faking data. As much as the media made of it, as much as climate change denial blogs played them up, it has been shown again and again that Climategate was all sound and fury, signifying nothing."
There's a disconnect between climate science and politics.
Here are some indisputable facts about climate science:
1) Global CO2 levels are rising rapidly. This is a documented, measured increase.
2) The vast majority of climate scientists (97%) believe there is a human caused component of climate change.
More from EPA:
"There is now clear evidence that the Earth's climate is warming:
• Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) over the last 100 years.
• Worldwide, the last decade has been the warmest on record.
• The rate of warming across the globe over the last 50 years (0.24ºF per decade) is almost double the rate of warming over the last 100 years (0.13ºF per decade).
The evidence of climate change extends well beyond increases in global surface temperatures. It also includes:
• Changing precipitation patterns.
• Melting ice in the Arctic.
• Melting glaciers around the world.
• Increasing ocean temperatures.
• Rising sea level around the world.
• Acidification of the oceans due to elevated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
• Responses by plants and animals, such as shifting ranges.
Projections of Climate Change
At the current rate, the Earth's global average temperature is projected to rise from 3 to 7°F by 2100, and it will get even warmer after that. As the climate continues to warm, more changes are expected to occur, and many effects will become more pronounced over time. For example, heat waves are expected to become more common, severe, and longer lasting. Some storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, increasing the chances of flooding and damage in coastal communities.
Climate change will affect different regions, ecosystems, and sectors of the economy in many ways, depending not only on the sensitivity of those systems to climate change, but also on their ability to adapt to risks and changing conditions. Throughout history, societies and ecosystems alike have shown remarkable capacity to respond to risks and adapt to different climates and environmental changes. Today, effects of climate change have already been observed, and the rate of warming has increased in recent decades."
It's worth saying one more time: Climate science is clear about climate change facts. Policy makers and politicians are the ones who decide what to do about it, that's climate change policy.
PH
PH
Growing "snow drought" & Why the "weather dice" are loaded for warmth
Posted at 9:08 AM on February 8, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Snow, Winter 2011-12
14.9" snowfall season to date at MSP Airport
35.5" average winter snowfall to date in the metro
42% of average snowfall so far this winter
60.9" snowfall last winter by this date!
.25" total GFS model output precip total next 16 days
(Would be 2.5" of snow at a 10:1 ratio)
15 USA cities reporting above average snowfall so far this winter
155 USA cities reporting below average snowfall so far this winter!
"Expect the unprecedented" Wunderground's Jeff Masters on climate trends
"The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day." From Wunderground. Image credit: NASA.
Finally, winter?
Well at least it feels like winter in Minnesota and the Midwest today. Our lawns and fields may look brown, but the February-like chill in the air is real today.
A respectably chilly air mass has settled in, and the overall pattern looks more like winter the next two weeks.
Arctic front ahead:
Temps will moderate again by Thursday, but a reinforcing shot of cold air is just 36-48 hours away. The next front is arctic in origin, and will push south through Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday.
This stronger brand of cold will get you attention Friday & Saturday. Overnight lows will dip to near 0 in the metro, with temps well below zero in northern Minnesota.
Daytime highs will struggle to make the teens Friday & Saturday.
Another warm up in sight?
Looking down the road there are now signs of another warm up in about 2 weeks. The GFS is hinting at 40s again around Feb 23rd-24th. The AO, which has controlled our weather so far this winter, has recently gone negative. There are signs of a shift back to a positive AO, and that could mean milder air again in about 2 weeks.
There are also some signs we may turn wetter about then...
Stay tuned on that one.
Growing snow drought.
Our 14.9" season snowfall so far in the metro is just 42% of average so far this season. Last winter's "Domebuster" storm dumped 17.1" on the metro...more than all of our snow combined this season in a single storm!
Here are some other season to date snowfall totals around the region.
Sioux Falls 8.7"
Grand Forks 13.7"
St. Cloud 16.2"
Rochester 16.7"
Duluth 16.9"
International Falls 32.1"
The snow drought includes much of the northern USA. You can see how little snow has fallen compared to last winter through mid-January on the graph below.
The "snow drought" is good news for cash strapped city snow plow budgets after last winter's snow blitz.
With little snow in the forecast the next 2 weeks, it looks like Minnesota's snow drought will continue to grow. Right now (with plenty of snow potential ahead thorugh March) this is the 2nd lowest snowfall total on record for the Twin Cities.
If we manage to get theough the season with less than an additional 7.6" this will be one of the 10 least snowy winters on record.
We'll see about that.
Changing weather patterns: Are the "weather dice" loaded in favor of warmth?
As I posted yesterday, weather patterns in the last 2 years look so out of place form what I've seen since I started looking at daily weather maps about 25 years ago.
Apparently I am not alone in this observation.
One of the nation's top tropical weather experts and climate observers is Jeff Masters with Wundergound. In a recent interview, Jeff gives the best description of why the dice are loaded in favor of warmer weather that I have ever heard.
I don't normally quote so extensively from weather other blogs, but this is just too good not to share with MPR listeners and Updraft readers.
Here are some of Jeff's extremely lucid and insightful comments.
Christine Shearer: How do you think about the relationship between climate, climate change, and daily weather?
Jeff Masters: "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to notice the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to notice climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible. If you want a longer explanation, think of the weather as a game of dice like craps or backgammon, where Mother Nature rolls two six-sided dice to decide the day's weather. There are 36 possible combinations of the two dice, and rolls can range from two to twelve. Most often, an ordinary roll like six, seven, or eight comes up; seven is the most common, with a 6 in 36 probability. Rolls of six and eight are only slightly less common, coming up with a 5 in 36 probability. These rolls of the "weather dice" correspond to typical summer weather-high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s on a nice summer day in New York City, for instance. It is much harder to roll an extreme event-snake eyes (corresponding to a record cold day, with a high near 65), or double sixes (a record warm day, with a high near 100.) These rolls only have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring-about 3%.
Now think about what happens if we take one of the six-sided "weather dice" and paint an extra spot on each side. The old die still rolls a one through six, but the new die now rolls a two through seven. The most likely roll increases to an eight, so we've shifted to a warmer climate, getting a typical summertime high of 78 degrees instead of 76. However, the increase in 78 degree days isn't that noticeable, since we've only increased the likelihood of getting an eight on our "weather dice" from 5 in 36 to 6 in 36. But now look at what has happened to extreme events as a result of loading our "weather dice" in favor of higher rolls. Whereas before we had only a 3% chance of rolling an twelve on our "weather dice"-an extreme heat day of 100 degrees in New York City-we've now tripled these chances to almost 9%, since there are three possible combinations of the dice that total twelve or higher. Moreover, it is no longer possible to roll snake eyes, corresponding to a record cold day, but it is now possible to roll a 13-a previously unprecedented weather event. Temperatures higher than 106, New York City's previous all-time high temperature, can now occur."
Pretty remarkable stuff.
Janaury continues the warm trend in USA:
A follow up on my post from yesterday on the 4th warmst Janaury in the USA. Check out the image from NOAA below and you can see how warmth focused on the Midwest in Janaury.
Again, some insight from Wunderground.
"It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:
Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Alexandria, LA 83°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F
However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F)."
3rd least-snowy January
We're not the only ones looking at brown grass this winter. More from Wunderground.
"According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall."
Stay tuned & be warm!
PH
"Febtober?" New month, same weather; AMS climate controversy?
Posted at 8:38 AM on February 1, 2012
by Paul Huttner
(10 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter 2011-12
Dense fog advisories early Wednesday morning!
1/4 mile visibilities in some areas
40s again in southern Minnesota today!
54 record high at MSP today - we won't get there
Controversy? Group pressures AMS on climate change statement
Fog along I-35 at Co. Road 42 this morning
Dense AM fog gradually lifts:
Call it a "pea souper" or London fog. Either way much of Minnesota looks like the Moors from a Sherlock Holmes story this morning.
Visibilities are down to 1/4 mile in some areas and with temps below freezing...the fog is freezing on some roadways.
Tuesday's snow melt added moisture to the lower atmosphere...that helped the fog get thick today in places.
Be careful driving this morning! Use caution when driving into fog banks where visibility can suddenly drop to near zero.
February 1st: More like late March
New month, same mild weather. Our overall pattern is locked in a mild rut. Look for more highs in the low 40s today in southern Minnesota with 30s up north. Just in case you forgot, the average high at MSP for today is still just 25 degrees! And that's after adjusting for the new (milder) 30 year averages.
Get used to it. The brand new CPC 30 day outlooks favor above average temps again for Minnesota.
Warning: AMS climate controversy ahead?
This one is going to get interesting.
A group called Forecast the Facts is on a campaign to get the AMS to draft a stronger statement on climate change. The group attended last week's AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans. AMS is due to update its policy statement on climate change, and Forecast the Facts wants them to adopt a stronger statement, and encourage TV meteorologists to focus more on educating viewers on climate change.
From the Forecast the Facts website:
"I urge the AMS Council to immediately pass a new information statement that reflects the widespread scientific consensus that climate change is increasingly impacting our planet, and then vigorously promote that statement to AMS members."
and this...
About Forecast the Facts
"Intense droughts, fierce storms, increased flooding. Scientists have been predicting for years that human-induced climate change would lead to a future of increasingly dangerous extreme weather events. That future is now upon us.
But when most Americans tune into their local weather report, they won't hear a peep about climate change. Why? Because the majority of TV meteorologists don't believe in it. That's right: the professionals most responsible for informing the public about the weather are systematically missing the most important weather story of our lifetime.
With over 1,000 TV meteorologists across the country, the level of denial varies widely. Some TV meteorologists spout outright falsehoods on air--like the idea that the earth is actually cooling, or that global warming is caused by sunspots (not Co2 and other greenhouse gasses.) In other cases, they cover increasingly extreme weather events like droughts, wild fires, flooding, and winter storms, without ever mentioning the scientific consensus that climate change is making these events more likely and more intense. It's the equivalent of a news anchor reporting on a string of murders without saying that there is a suspect in custody.
Viewers tuning in to their weather report deserve to be told the truth about climate change, and the Forecast the Facts campaign aims to make sure that happens. Our goal is nothing short of changing how the entire profession of meteorology tackles the issue of climate change. We'll empower everyday people to make sure meteorologists understand that their viewers are counting on them to get this story right, and that those who continue to shirk their professional responsibility will be held accountable.
TV meteorologists have worked for years to build respectability for their profession. What began as a glorified announcer position has morphed into a true scientific pursuit, with graduate degrees, a professional association, and standards for certification. That profession now faces a defining question: will TV meteorologists forecast the facts and help Americans understand the science and impacts of climate change, or will they stand on the side of denial, promoting the ignorance and inaction that threatens the future of our country and our world?
The weather report never mattered so much."
And a press release...
"San Francisco, CA - A new campaign, Forecast the Facts (www.forecastthefacts.org), launches Sunday to pressure TV meteorologists to inform their viewers about climate change. The launch coincides with the kick-off of the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) annual meeting in New Orleans, LA.
The campaign will deliver thousands of petition signatures that demand the AMS pass a strong statement on climate change. The current statement--drafted in 2007--is set to expire on Feb1. In the five years since, scientific consensus about climate change has grown even stronger, and the Forecast the Facts campaign is urging the AMS to reflect that consensus in their new information statement. The new statement, drafted by a panel of experts, requires approval by the 21-member AMS Council, which convenes on Sunday, January 22 at their annual meeting.
"This is an important moment in the history of the AMS," said Daniel Souweine, the campaign's director. "It's well known that large numbers of meteorologists are climate change deniers. It's essential that the AMS Council resist pressure from these deniers and pass the strong statement currently under consideration."
In the coming months the campaign plans to launch a full-fledged initiative to educate and activate communities at the local level. Grassroots outreach efforts will include a robust and creative online and offline engagement campaign, including video, advertising, and activist tool-kits, among other interactive elements.
The issue of climate change denial among television weather reporters has gained increasing attention of late, especially with the release of a national study by George Mason University in March 2010. The study found that 63% of T.V. meteorologists think climate change is due to natural causes, and a full 27% think global warming is a scam.
The AMS is the leading national organization for meteorologists, with over 14,000 members. Its information statements are "intended to provide a trustworthy, objective and scientifically up-to-date explanation of scientific issues of concern to the public at large." According to the George Mason study, meteorologists trust information from the AMS more than almost any other source, including climate researchers, making the AMS statement on climate change a closely watched document in the meteorological community.
Recent increases in extreme weather have added further impetus for meteorologists to report on climate change. In 2011, the United States experienced a record twelve "billion-dollar" extreme weather events, including flooding from Hurricane Irene, unprecedented tornadoes in the Midwest, and crippling droughts and wildfires in the Southwest. Most scientists believe that climate change exacerbates extreme weather, a conclusion affirmed by the International Panel on Climate Change's November 2011 report on the subject."
One of the most controversial tactics FTF is using is to effectively "out" TV meteorologists on their site who don't believe in human driven climate change.
(Also known as Anthropogenic Global Warming or AGW)
This has stirred some strong discussion in forecast circles, and will no doubt get hotter before it gets cooler.
What do you think? Should AMS draft a stronger statement on climate change? And should TV meteorologists make greater efforts to include credible climate change news and studies in weather reports?
Stay tuned for more on this one...
PH
Rare MN winter brush fire danger; Alarming Russian climate news
Posted at 5:35 PM on December 27, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate change
0 snow cover in the Metro, Rochester & St. Cloud on December 27th!
2" snow depth at Duluth
4" snow depth at International Falls
"Brown Winter" so far:
It's a "brown winter" so far for most of Minnesota. Yes, there's barely enough snow cover in the north woods around Ely and the BWCAW to enjoy some traditional winter acticities, but most of the state is snow free as of December 27th.
Check out Tuesday MODIS Terra 1000 meter satellite image taken over Minnesota. Youc an clearly see the brown landscape and lack of snow cover. I can't recall a year with this little snow cover in Minnesota on this date.
NASA Terra MODIS image Tuesday. Note the lack of snow on brown ground. Clouds appear white on the right hand side of image.
Rare winter brush fire danger:
Monday's record warmth and winds triggered a large brush fire that consumed 750 acres in northwest Minnesota. This is almost unheard of in December in Minnesota.
The details on the unusual and unseasonable brush fire danger from the Minnesota DNR.
DNR urges caution with fires; burning permits now required
"Winter is usually a time of low fire danger in Minnesota, but this winter is different, with snow drought in most of the state. Fuels such as grasses and brush, which are usually covered with snow, are freeze-dried and available to burn this winter. Because of these conditions, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is asking people to be careful with fire, to check previous fires for possible rekindling, and make sure they get a burning permit before burning vegetation.
On Monday, 750 acres burned near the northwestern Minnesota city of Gully, in Polk County. The fire burned rapidly through wooded areas due to dry fuels and high winds. That fire is now contained, and firefighters are mopping up heavy fuels today. Fighting fires in the winter is difficult, however. Due to cold weather and low wind chill temperatures, firefighter frostbite and freezing pumps are concerns.
Burning restrictions will change as weather conditions and snow cover change. Burning permits are required whenever there is less than three inches of continuous snow surrounding a planned burn area. Right now, with the exception of Cook County in northeastern Minnesota, burning permits are needed for debris and vegetation burning. Permitted burning hours vary by geographical area. Campfires are allowed without burning permits.
For information about burning permits, contact a local DNR Forestry office or check the DNR website at www.mndnr.gov and search for burning permits."
The lack of snow cover means plenty of tinder dry fuels are exposed to burn these days. Even with winter temps, fires that get started can grow, especially on windy days. Not that you would do it, but this is not the year to burn your Christmas tree outside in greater Minnesota!
Abundant dry fuels are exposed, and ready to burn this year near the weatherlab and in much of Minnesota.
Huge "methane fountains" discovered in Russian Arctic:
Oh boy, this story is easy to make fun of...but scientists with the Russian Academy of Sciences are alarmed at the discovery of huge methane releases from the Arctic Ocean seabed.
Methane is 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas that CO2.
The fear here is that these newly discovered plumes are releasing huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere, and that that could lead to "raipd and severe climate change."
Environment | Climate Change Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas
Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface
"Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane - a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide - have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.
The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.
In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.
"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."
Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change."
Climate study backfires: How to talk to a climate change skeptic
Posted at 4:44 PM on November 2, 2011
by Paul Huttner
(5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change
No doubt you've heard about the BEST study by now.
Cal Berkley professor, and former climate change skeptic, Richard Mueller's study on the validity of global temperature rises in multiple data sets confirmed what climate scientists already knew. The temperature data and science behind climate change is rock solid.
Mueller and his co-authors looked at several factors.
(Click to enlarge)
Specifically, the results of the exhaustive paper found that climate change skeptics argument about Urban Heat Island (UHI) creating a warm bias was bogus. In fact, the data showed the opposite.
Study data no surprise to the climate change community.
After years of unsuccessful attacks on climate change science and scientists funded by big oil interests who have financial and political interest in the demise of climate change science, the science remians solid and unscathed.
Three separate data sets have reached remarkably similar conclusions on the unparalleled rise in earth's temperatures int he 20th century. The BEST study's 1.6 billion data points confirm NOAA, NASA'S Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and UK's Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research data sets.
The great irony of BEST is that it set out to prove once and for all that climate change science is faulty, and ended up proving just the opposite.
Much to the chagrin of the flat earth climate change deniers, peer reviewed climate change science and the scientists who dedicate their lives to studying our planet remain credible and convincing.
As a meteorologist I consider myself ot be a skeptic on certain things. As a weather forecaster, you have to look at many forecast models with a skeptical eye. They often present solutions that will be in error one way or another. A good forecaster knows model biases, has a good BS detector and can filter out the bad data, and sometimes see that certain maps "just don't look right."
Skepticism is a valid and welcome part of scientific inquiry. Well meaning climate change skeptics should take Dr. Mueller's recent words to heart; "The skeptics raised valid points and everybody should have been a skeptic two years ago," Muller said in a telephone interview. "And now we have confidence that the temperature rise that had previously been reported had been done without bias."
But for those who continue "ignore" credible science that has withstood challenge from former skeptics within their own ranks there is just one word for those who continue to ignore climate science. Ignorance. At least Dr. Mueller has looked at the facts, and admitted his skepticism was misplaced.
You may never be able to convince those who choose to ignore climate and other science about what's happening in front of their own eyes. But here's a great website for those who are open minded enough to listen to fact and reason.
"How to talk to a climate skeptic" deals with virtually every objection to climate change in a rational, no nonsense way.
PH
Warmer in the Cities
Posted at 4:15 PM on October 21, 2011
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Drought, Microclimates, Urban Heat Island
The urban heat island is well observed in the climate records of metropolitan areas. If you reside in downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul you experienced a minimum temperature that was near or even above the thawing point of 32 degrees this morning. The International Airport recorded a low of 32 degrees, while Saint Anthony checked in with 34 degrees. All official temperatures are taken about five feet above ground level.
Meanwhile, it was a different story away from the urban region. Here is a sample of some other minimum temperatures recorded this morning: Chanhassen, Crystal, and Buffalo all at 27 degrees, Further away from downtown, it was a very nippy 23 degrees at Waseca, 25 at St. Cloud and one of the coldest readings of 21 degrees in Princeton. Temperatures in the middle twenties were observed in western Wisconsin as well, with a frosty 25 degrees in Eau Claire.
Obviously the the exact location of the thermometer has some bearing on the temperature, particularly when winds are calm and the sky is clear. But the reality is, we were all under the umbrella of the same air mass. When meterorologists predict lows from the middle 20s to the middle 30s, they are not hedging. They are bracketing the temperatures that can be different in a small radius.
Click here to explore the overnight low temperatures.
Peter Synder of the University of Minnesota has embarked on additional research to capture the magnitude of the urban heat island in the Twin Cities. He is in particular need for observers within the Interstate 494/694 beltway. If you would be able to assist Peter and his work, he can be contacted at pksynder@umn.edu. Here's the website for more information; http://www.islands.umn.edu/
I spoke with Greg Spoden at the Minnesota State Climate Office this afternoon and he related how some of his research has shown that with a slight north wind the urban heat island can expand to Farmington. Invaluable research here, especially when scientists are trying to resolve the human impact on global warming.
Greg also confirmed that the latest seasonal outlook for this winter, issued by NOAA yesterday, is using the new normals when defining regions that favor above or below normal temperatures.
Another nice day is in store for Saturday before the opportunity for moisture arrives on Saturday night. It felt quite comfortable in the sunshine this afternoon. We topped out at 60 degrees at the Twin Cities international Airport.
Often meteorologists refer to the prospect of showers as the "threat of rain". When you have been as dry as some locations in Minnesota, you call it an opportunity for rain.
Here's a look at how sparse rainfall has been since late July. As Greg noted, southern Minnesota is seeing moisture shortages that are extremely rare. Being in the zero percentile is not where you'd like to be if you're looking for soil moisture recharge for next year's growing season.
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This afternoon's weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. Hopefully we can play out a win-win in the weather world, with precipitation falling overnight on Saturday.
Can Minnesota Monarchs survive Texas drought on Mexico migration?
Posted at 3:43 PM on October 10, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate change
Photo credit: NATI HARNIK
This story caught my eye.
We've been reporting this summer and fall on the worst drought and wildfires in Texas history. It turns out millions of monarch butterflies make an annual pit stop in Texas to fatten up for the winter in Mexico. The Texas sized drought of 2011 may be a blow to many monarchs looking for critical fall food sources.
The story from the Washington Post.
"For the monarch butterflies, life is complicated enough even in a good year. Now, though, they've got to deal with Texas.
The monarchs in recent weeks have been beating their way south and west across eastern North America, riding winds a thousand feet above the ground, covering 25 miles or more every day. Now they've reached a vast area in Texas stricken by drought and charred by wildfires.
The butterflies are on their way to Mexico. They come from as far north as Winnipeg, Manitoba, and as far east as the islands of Maine. Many take a well-flapped route down the Eastern Seaboard before veering across the Gulf Coast. If they can make it through the gantlet of Texas, they will cross the Rio Grande and converge on a few acres of forest in mountains about 60 miles west of Mexico City. There, they spend the winter roosting, thick as quilts, on the branches of oyamel fir trees. In spring, they'll head back north.
But it's not clear how many will make it this year to their Mexican retreat, or what kind of condition they'll be in when they get there.
They need water. They need flowers. They need nectar. The monarch butterfly is a hardy and vigorous insect, but whatever compels it to migrate south does not tolerate much flexibility in the itinerary. Going through Texas on the way to Mexico is what they're hard-wired to do. And Texas is scorched.
"They're going to be encountering a thousand miles of hell as they go through a nearly waterless, flowerless, nectarless landscape," said Chip Taylor, an insect ecologist at the University of Kansas and the director of the nonprofit organization Monarch Watch."
"Is this (monarch) heaven? No, it's western Minnesota!"
More from the Kansas City Star. It turns out western Minnesota and the Dakotas are some of the few areas where monarchs are doing well these days.
"Pity the poor monarch.
The butterflies' retreat from their summer range, stretching from New England to the Dakotas, is now heading into truly scorched earth.
Texas, especially, is crispy.
"The migration is just beginning to navigate a thousand miles of hell -- a nearly flowerless/nectarless and waterless expanse," wrote Chip Taylor, director of Monarch Watch, referring to the abnormally hot and dry stretch from central Kansas through northern Mexico.
The last of the big butterflies are passing through our area now. Wish them luck.
Just don't expect to greet nearly as many next spring.
At one time we enjoyed a billion Eastern monarchs; Taylor thinks there may be a tenth of that today. Next summer? Who knows?
In a normal year, he said, "As they go south, they visit a lot of flowers, collecting nectar that are rich in sugar, and they convert those sugars to fat, which is stored in the abdomen. They're heavier when they get to Mexico, which is interesting, since most migratory species lose weight on the trip. They spend most of the winter living off those fats."
But first they have to funnel through Texas, where the vegetation, if it hasn't dried up in the hottest summer on record, is likely burned up. About 21,000 fires -- and some are still burning -- have blackened more than 3.6 million acres. Too late for fall rains to help much there or in northern Mexico.
"Hey, more bad news," Taylor interjected, with a pop-up on his computer screen, "it's 101 degrees in Austin."
So how many monarchs will make the fall trip safely but arrive too skinny to survive the winter or reproduce on the return trip north?
Since spring, Taylor, who is a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Kansas, had predicted the numbers starting the march from the East Coast would be low. He was disappointed, however, by the counts from the Great Lakes Midwest (Ohio to Wisconsin). The only bright spots were the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, but still, populations overall are low.
Tagging in Texas will give Taylor a better sense of the survival rate over the last 500 miles. (The tags are a small circular sticker on the insect's underside, which at first glace can look jarringly like a "Made in China" sticker.)
The grim backdrop to all of this is the elimination of nourishing milkweed across much of the farming region. This corresponds with the increased use of herbicide-tolerant corn and soybeans planted during the summer breeding times. Loss of habitat continues apace as well.
"All the scenarios I see going forward," Taylor said, "it's hard to see a positive one."
PH
More records? Fire weather terms; Dissapearing forests and climate change
Posted at 6:00 PM on October 4, 2011
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Record
85 degree high at MSP Tuesday
64 average high for October 4th
+21 degrees vs. average
4 degrees shy of record high of 89 Tuesday
This is October? The temps map Tuesday PM looks more like July.
It appears temps will peak Wednesday between 85 and 88 degrees, with 90 not out of the question in southern Minnesota. The record high of 87 Wednesday in the metro is within reach!
Fire Weather: What does it mean?
We don't see many "Red Flag" and "Fire Weather" warnings in Minnesota, but they seem to be more common lately. Here are some terms and definitions courtesy of your local NWS.
The Disappearing Forest; A climate change accelerator?
An interesting story form the New York Times. As massive forest fires sweep across the USA from Arizona to Texas and Minnesota, are those disappearing forests increasing the probability of more rapid climate warming?
"WISE RIVER, Mont. -- The trees spanning many of the mountainsides of western Montana glow an earthy red, like a broadleaf forest at the beginning of autumn.
But these trees are not supposed to turn red. They are evergreens, falling victim to beetles that used to be controlled in part by bitterly cold winters. As the climate warms, scientists say, that control is no longer happening.
Across millions of acres, the pines of the northern and central Rockies are dying, just one among many types of forests that are showing signs of distress these days.
From the mountainous Southwest deep into Texas, wildfires raced across parched landscapes this summer, burning millions more acres. In Colorado, at least 15 percent of that state's spectacular aspen forests have gone into decline because of a lack of water.
The devastation extends worldwide. The great euphorbia trees of southern Africa are succumbing to heat and water stress. So are the Atlas cedars of northern Algeria. Fires fed by hot, dry weather are killing enormous stretches of Siberian forest. Eucalyptus trees are succumbing on a large scale to a heat blast in Australia, and the Amazon recently suffered two "once a century" droughts just five years apart, killing many large trees.
Experts are scrambling to understand the situation, and to predict how serious it may become."
"Scientists have figured out -- with the precise numbers deduced only recently -- that forests have been absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide that people are putting into the air by burning fossil fuels and other activities. It is an amount so large that trees are effectively absorbing the emissions from all the world's cars and trucks.
Without that disposal service, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be rising faster. The gas traps heat from the sun, and human emissions are causing the planet to warm."
I watched over a million acres of prime pine forest burn in Arizona during my 9 years there as Chief Meteorologist at the ABC station in Tucson. Now we are seeing massive blazes in Texas and yes, Minnesota. At some point the evidence seems to support the idea that we are witnessing the effects of climate change right before our eyes, in our lifetime, right here in Minnesota.
PH
USA 2011: Most catastrophic weather year on record!
Posted at 7:44 AM on September 7, 2011
by Paul Huttner
(5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Severe weather
Here's a record nobody wanted to break.
Hurricane Irene was the 10th "billion dollar weather disaster" to hit the USA in 2011. That's the highest number of billion dollar weather disasters to hit the USA since such records were kept starting in 1980.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, (NCDC) 2011 through May was the costliest year since they began tracking billion dollar disasters in 1980. Economic damage costs to date in the US exceed $35 Billion. This damage amount does not yet take into account the losses from Hurricane Irene.
(Estimates for Irene run as high as 7 billion.)
Here is the preliminary summary of the 10 U.S. Billion dollar disasters that have occurred so far in 2011: (NCDC data)
Hurricane Irene, August 20-29, 2011 While it will take several months to determine an accurate estimate of the damage from Hurricane Irene, there is no question it will rank as the 10th billion-dollar weather/climate event of the year. This 10th U.S. billion-dollar disaster officially breaks the annual record dating back to 1980.
Irene was battering eastern North Carolina shortly before noon on August 27, 2011, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite took this picture.
Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011 Melting of an above-average snow pack across the Northern Rocky Mountains combined with above-average precipitation caused the Missouri and Souris Rivers to swell beyond their banks across the Upper Midwest (MT, ND, SD, NE, IA, KS, MO). An estimated 11,000 people were forced to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to the record high water level of the Souris River, where 4,000 homes were flooded. Numerous levees were breached along the Missouri River, flooding thousands of acres of farmland. Estimated losses exceed $2.0 billion as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15). The flooding also stretched into the Canadian Prairies, where property and agriculture losses were expected to surpass $1.0 billion, at least 5 deaths.
Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011 Persistent rainfall (nearly 300 percent normal precipitation amounts in the Ohio Valley) combined with melting snowpack caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Estimated economic loss ranges from $2.0-4.0 billion; at least 2 deaths. Below are more detailed stats, which are preliminary, as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15): $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas; $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee; $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi; $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri's Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway; $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana.
Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer, 2011 Drought, heatwave, and wildfires have created major impacts across the Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Arkansas and Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, 75% and 63% of range and pasture conditions were classified in 'very poor' condition as of mid-August. Wildfire fighting/suppression costs for the region are also ~$1 million / day with over 2,000 homes and structures lost. The total direct losses (as of August 15) to agriculture, cattle and structures are well over $5.0 billion; both direct and total economic losses will rise dramatically as the event continues.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (MO, TX, OK, KS, AR, GA, TN, VA, KY, IN, IL, OH, WI, MN, PA) with an estimated 180 tornadoes and 177 deaths. Notably, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, MO resulting in at least 141 deaths, making it the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950. Over $4.9 billion insured losses for event; total losses greater than $7.0 billion; 177 deaths.
Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (AL, AR, LA, MS, GA, TN, VA, KY, IL, MO, OH, TX, OK) with an estimated 305 tornadoes and 327 deaths. Of those fatalities, 240 occurred in Alabama. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak, an EF-5, hit northern Alabama, killing 78 people. Several major metropolitan areas were directly impacted by strong tornadoes including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the estimated damage costs to soar. Over $6.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $9.0 billion; 327 deaths.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (OK, TX, AR, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, VA, PA) with an estimated 160 tornadoes. Despite the large overall number of tornadoes, few were classified as intense, with just 14 EF-3, and no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes identified. Over $1.4 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 38 deaths [22 of which were in North Carolina].
Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (NC, SC, TN, AL, TX, OK, KS, IA, WI) with an estimated 59 tornadoes. Over $1.5 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, 0 deaths.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (KS, MO, IA, IL, WI, KY, GA, TN, NC, SC) with an estimated 46 tornadoes. Over $1.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.3 billion; 9 deaths.
Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3, 2011 Large winter storm impacting many central, eastern and northeastern states. The city of Chicago was brought to a virtual standstill as between 1 and 2 feet of snow fell over the area. Insured losses greater than $1.1 billion; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 36 deaths.
"The U.S. has sustained 109 weather/climate related disasters over the past 31+ years in which overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total standardized losses for the 109 events exceed $750 billion. Events are listed below beginning with the most recent. Two damage figures are given for events prior to 2011 - the first figure represents actual dollar costs at the time of the event and is not adjusted for inflation. The value in parenthesis is the disaster cost adjusted to 2011 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
These statistics were taken from a wide variety of sources and represent, to the best of our ability, the estimated total costs of these events---that is, the costs in terms of dollars and lives that would not have been incurred had the event not taken place. Insured and uninsured losses are included in damage estimates. These estimates are likely to change as damage assessments become more complete.
Estimates are periodically updated as more data/information become available. Sources include the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, US Department of Agriculture, other U.S. government agencies, individual state emergency management agencies, state and regional climate centers, media reports, and insurance industry estimates."
So where are you most likely to run into a "billion dollar weather disaster?" As you might expect, the southeast (hurricanes) and tornado alley are the most likely places in the USA. Yet another reason to appreciate living in Minnesota?
Bottom Line: By the measure of billion dollar disasters, this has been the most "extreme weather year" in the USA since at least 1980.
Climate change link?
Even though the trends are striking, we may never be 100% certain that climate change is playing a role in the increasing number of billion dollar disasters.
While many politicians refuse to acknowledge the trends, it appears the insurance industry isn't taking any chances. The story from Bloomberg.
Market, Politicians Going Separate Ways on Climate Change: View
"Hurricane Irene's residue is likely to include a confusing debate over whether insurers or property owners are responsible for storm-caused water damage. There's no lack of clarity, however, over whether the insurance industry believes in climate change and its ties to lethal weather: It does.
As Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Sept. 5 issue, the industry has absorbed many lessons from Sept. 11 about anticipating risk. One is that the recent spate of weather extremes is likely to continue -- and the insurance market must reflect that.
Interestingly, this puts the industry at odds with a number of Republican candidates who have made questioning climate change a not-insignificant part of their campaign strategy. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann dispute whether global warming is man-made. Perry suggests that climate is affected by many variables, which scientists can manipulate "so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects." Mitt Romney is on the fence. Only Jon Huntsman Jr. has declared definitively that he trusts scientists on global warming.
Politicians have been known to dissemble about risk because voters generally don't like to hear bad news. The insurance industry makes its money telling it to you straight -- how long you'll probably live, what price your home will fetch, whether to repair or trade in your car.
Risk Models
For this reason, it's worth noting that insurers already factor climate change into their models for measuring, pricing and distributing risk. Insurers have no incentive to lie. If they are more scared than they should be in pricing risk, shareholders will punish them. If they aren't scared enough, nature will do the job.
No one can say for certain that any single weather event flows from the warmer air caused by carbon emissions, which in turn lead to more rainfall, floods and snowfall over some parts of the planet, and more drought in other parts. But last year was the hottest on record. Arctic ice is at record low levels. Regardless of what politicians say, insurers must factor all this into premiums.
Vulnerable Areas
Swiss Re, the second-largest reinsurer, is developing scenarios using probabilistic modeling to help government officials cope. The reinsurer studied the effects of climate change in vulnerable areas such as Samoa, Mali, Caribbean islands and Miami.
No matter which model it chose -- no change, moderate changes or extreme changes -- Swiss Re concludes it's cheaper to adapt now than to sit and wait.
It recommends building codes that require more water- and wind-proofing, zoning laws that prevent planting trees close to buildings and power lines, redesigned beaches that absorb storm surge, and restoration of wetlands.
Hurricane Irene, and the estimated $5 billion to $7 billion in damage claims insurers now face, has been swept up in this debate. Irene maintained hurricane strength farther north than storms usually do -- and dropped extraordinary amounts of rain. At the same time, parts of the U.S. are experiencing record-high temperatures and dust-bowl conditions. Houston hit an all-time high of 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) the same day Irene was roaring up the Eastern Seaboard.
Rising Seas
A storm with Irene's fury will only cause more damage in the future. Rising sea levels will allow storm surge to penetrate farther inland. Americans pushing relentlessly toward the East and West Coasts are putting themselves and their property in harm's way.
If elected officials want to help constituents prepare for disaster, they could fight for legislation to curb carbon emissions, and they could keep people from building along coastlines. Politicians have enjoyed enormous success calling scientists into question. The market may not prove to be such an easy target."
If money and markets are leading indicators, politicians may be behind the times on the economic impacts of climate change.
PH
Short term uncertainty
Posted at 6:56 AM on July 7, 2011
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
With the weakening jet stream in the summertime, meteorologists are frustrated with the uncertainity of forecasting precipitation due to lack of a clear triggering force. Thus the broadbrush of low end precipitation probabilities for the next twenty-four hours.
What a difference a day makes. At this time on Wednesday morning much of Minnesota was cloud free. Here's a look at the 630AM visible satellite that shows south central Minnesota enjoying sunshine. Notice the bumps in the cloud cover along the South Dakota/Minnesota border where showers have more gitty-up.
Indications from tracking last night's model output support more forcing and vertical lift in the atmosphere on Friday night into Saturday night. Exactly where the potential for heavier showers might be is difficult to pin-point. See the output from the GFS model for a bulls-eye of significant rain on Saturday evening. Is this just an outlier or will this become reality? The next model run may confirm or overrule the downpour potential.
Yes that's a total of nearly two inches in central Minnesota. An example of what meteorologists examine to craft a forecast for your weekend.
You may have heard that the NWS has released and as of July 1st is now using the updated thirty year normals. As we learned over time normals are the output of the collection of the extremes. The numbers currently used have tossed out the relatively cold temperatures in the 1970s and incoporated the warmer winter temperatures of the past ten years.
I was speaking with the chief meteorologist for NOAA in the Twin Cities last evening and we agreed that the long range outlook for the winter, posted by the Climate Prediction Center is now impacted by the change in the normals.
See the graphic from NOAA on the change/warmer minimum temperatures in our neck of the woods. Most of this warming in the new normals comes from the winter season.
Based on the new normals, here's the Climate Prediction very long range outlook for the months of December 2011 to February 2012. There are several more factors that will come into play by the time we approach the winter season. Use outlooks with caution.
Equal chances of above or below temperatures for the upcoming winter; not necessarily breaking news. But you did read it here.
CE
New NOAA normals may reveal face of climate change in MN
Posted at 8:10 AM on June 14, 2011
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
NOAA will officially release new 30 year averages (1981-2010) on July 1st, but we're already learning some significant facts from the early data.
What we've learned so far may tell us a lot about the face of climate change in Minnesota.
Here are the biggest kernels so far and something to think about this Tuesday morning.
-Minnesota winter nights got a lot milder in the past 30 years. Overnight low (minimum) temperatures in January average a full 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous 30 year (1971-2000) data set.
-Minnesota summer days are not getting hotter. Average high (maximum) temperatures in July show little change from the previous 30 year data set.
The strongest climate change signals for Minnesota are occurring in winter, and at night.
-Statewide averages of annual normals of tmax and tmin show that the 1981-2010 normals are warmer than the 1971-2000 for all lower 48 states!
Much more on this in the days to come, but this data will likely confirm with hard numbers what many have been saying about climate changes in Minnesota, and the USA.
Showers bucking dry air:
Weak waves of moisture are pushing toward Minnesota this week, but they're fighting some dry air near the surface and having a tough time getting going.
Radar loop shows attempted showers bucking dry air this morning.
Dew points at the surface are in the 40s in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and that dry air is undercutting shower development today.
GOES 1km visible satellite with dew points overlaid shows dry air to the east.
Look for a slow increase in showers in southwest Minnesota and a slow spread northeast today.
By late tonight & Wednesday there should be enough moisture push and upper air support to get more widespread showers going in Minnesota. Wednesday still looks like the wettest day this week.
Models still differ on Thursday-Saturday between wet and a drier warmer weather pattern.
Stay tuned!
PH
Record December chill kept 2010 from being warmest in history
Posted at 5:15 PM on January 5, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: 2010 highlights, Climate, Climate change
It looks like 2010 will go down in history as the 3rd warmest year on record globally. If not for widespread record cold in December, it would have been the warmest.
Widespread and record cold (and snow) blasted large sections of the globe in December.
-Twin Cities temperatures ran -2.3 degrees in December. A record 33.6" of snowfall buried the metro and much of Minnesota. The early season snow blitz has put the Twin Cities on track for the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record!
-December's cold wave penetrated all the way down to Florida. Many locations in Florida shivered through the coldest December on record since 1890.
From the Tampa NWS:
"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
940 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011
...DECEMBER 2010 ENDS UP AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT MOST SITES...
A GOOD PART OF DECEMBER 2010 WAS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 7 TO OVER 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS COLD WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) WHICH WAS HIGHLY NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE MONTH AND DOMINATED THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES PLACED MOST SITES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN."
(Thanks to my colleague and MN Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for the data)
-Britain also recoded the coldest December on record and the 5th coldest month ever in recorded history.
From the UK Met Office:
"Record cold December 2010
5 January 2011
- Provisional figures from the Met Office issued today reveal that December 2010 has become the coldest December across the UK since the national series began in 1910.
The mean temperature for the UK has been -1.0 °C, well below the long term average of 4.2 °C. The previous coldest December in the series was 0.1 °C, in 1981."
Thanks to MPR colleague and UM Professor Dr. Mark Seeley for the info. You can read more at Mark's Weather Talk site here.
The World Meteorological Organization reports that 2010 is likely to be the 3rd warmest year on record globally. The just completed decade of the 2000's is also the warmest decade on record.
From the WMO:
"Cancun/Geneva (WMO) - The year 2010 is almost certain to rank in the top 3 warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2010 (January-October) is currently estimated at 0.55°C ± 0.11°C1 (0.99°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. At present, 2010's nominal value is the highest on record, just ahead of 1998 (January-October anomaly +0.53°C) and 2005 (0.52°C)2. The ERA-Interim3 reanalysis data are also indicating that January-October 2010 temperatures are near record levels. The final ranking of 2010 will not become clear until November and December data are analyzed in early 2011. Preliminary operational data from 1-25 November indicate that global temperatures from November 2010 are similar to those observed in November 2005, indicating that global temperatures for 2010 are continuing to track near record levels.
Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.03°C above the 2000-09 average and the highest value ever recorded for a 10-year period. Recent warming has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic; the Saharan/Arabian, East African, Central Asian and Greenland/Arctic Canada sub-regions have all had 2001-10 temperatures 1.2 to 1.4°C above the long-term average, and 0.7°C to 0.9°C warmer than any previous decade."
NOAA's NCDC has not yet crunched their complete numbers for 2010, but data through November shows 2010 was the warmest year on record through November. The record chill in December will likely drop the final 2010 tally to 2nd or 3rd.
The bottom line is 2010 was yet another "top 5 warmest year on record" globally, and yet another solid piece of evidence that our planet is not "cooling" as some claim.
PH
Storm Backwash: Windy, colder, snow showers
Posted at 7:39 AM on November 30, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes, Snow, Winter storms
Update 7:42 am:
Next batch of snow showers rotating into metro now. Expect wind, cold and snow showers to continue this morning, and gradually taper this afternoon.
Still accumulating snow in Duluth and northeast Minnesota today. Expect another 1" to 3" in much of northen Minnesota today. Duluth has picked up 5.5" so far...still snowing heavily at times.
MNDOT traffic cam at I-94 & Co Road 81 in NW metro shows snow slicked highway Tuesday morning.
Snowfall totals range from 1" to 2" around most of the metro...with 4" on the high end in Cambridge in the far north.
I've recorded 1" of snow at the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven. More impressively...I picked up .61" of rain Monday!
Redwood Falls gets the coveted (cursed?) Golden Snow Shovel Award with 10"!
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010
...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS SINCE MONDAY NIGHT...
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------- --------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0145 AM
5.00 BROOTEN MN STEARNS 0200 AM
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0545 AM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0439 AM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0150 AM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM
Also Waconia 1.8" & Prior Lake 1.2"...
A rather disorganized low pressure system is still winding up early Tuesday, even though most of the moisture fell as rain in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The next phase of this storm system will be wind, cold, and wrap around snow showers. Expect occasional waves of snow through Tuesday morning as the cold backwash on the back side of the system kicks in.
Rain changed to snow at the Huttner Weather Lab near the east end of Lake Minnetonka at 11:20pm.
Expect some slick roadways, especially west and north of the greater Twin Cities Tuesday for AM rush.
Some areas (including parts of the metro) will still see 1" to 3" total snowfall accumulations with occasional snow showery bursts today.
Winds will increase from the west and northwest Tuesday, gusting to over 30 mph in much of Minnesota. This will cause some blowing snow in open areas that have seen accumulations. Wet spots will freeze as temperatures drop Tuesday.
Temperatures will drop through the 20s, and wind chills will dip to near zero in many locations as winter like weather regains a foothold.
Wind chills will dip below zero by Tuesday evening.
Because of the storms westerly track and abundant moisture, the system was still able to crank out some impressive rainfall amounts in the warm sector. There were also some decent snow totals in the colder air on the storm's west side.
Here are some rain and snow totals as of late Monday evening.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
914 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010
...INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.50 COMFREY MN BROWN 0808 PM
4.30 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0530 PM
4.00 MAYNARD MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
4.00 8 W CLARA CITY MN CHIPPEWA 0837 PM
3.50 OSAKIS MN DOUGLAS 0822 PM
2.50 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0622 PM
2.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0837 PM
2.00 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0645 PM
2.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0525 PM
1.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0613 PM
1.50 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0808 PM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0650 PM
1.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0837 PM
0.50 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0653 PM
Some snow totals form Duluth NWS:
0838 PM DULUTH M1.7 INCH OFFICIAL NWS TOTAL SO FAR.
0846 PM 7 SSW AURORA E2.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER - HEAVY SNOW NOW.
0927 PM 1 NW VIRGINIA M5.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER
0946 PM 1 N COTTON E3.5 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER
1004 PM 5 N VIRGINIA M5.0 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER
Allow some extra time getting around Tuesday.
Odds & ends:
-Winter starts off with a bang in Duluth.
This month Duluth recorded the most consecutive days with snowfall in nerly 17 years! Details here.
-USA "lucks out" in busy 2010 hurricane season.
One of the busiest on record with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The USA escaped without a major land falling hurricane this year...remarkable considering the sheer number of storms. Favorable short term weather patterns steered one storm after another out to the open Atlantic.
An atmospheic "force field" seemed to steer storms away from the USA in 2010.
Details from NOAA here.
-Lakes getting warmer?
In the first comprehensive global survey of temperature trends in major lakes, NASA researchers determined Earth's largest lakes have warmed during the past 25 years in response to climate change.
Researchers Philipp Schneider and Simon Hook of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., used satellite data to measure the surface temperatures of 167 large lakes worldwide.
They reported an average warming rate of 0.45 degrees Celsius (0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, with some lakes warming as much as 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. The warming trend was global, and the greatest increases were in the mid- to high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Lake Tahoe. (Credit NASA/JPL)
The story from NASA's JPL here.
PH
NOAA: 2010 warmest year on record to date
Posted at 8:52 AM on October 18, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
2010 remains on pace to be the warmest year on record globally.
That's the headline form NOAA's State of The Climate report for September 2010.
According to NOAA, global surface temperatures (land and ocean) are running +1.17°F above the 20th Century average. That puts 2010 slightly ahead of 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year on record globally.
17 countries have broken all time high temperature records this year. The records have come in both hemispheres, with new all time records in Finland (99°F), Russia (101.2°F), Pakistan (128.3°F) and Columbia (108°F).
The data continues the pronounced trend of warming observed since the 1980s, and refutes ideas by climate skeptics who claim the earth has been "cooling" since 1998.
The 10 warmest years on record globally have all occurred since 1998. The decade of 2000 through 2009 was the warmest on record in the past 131 years of data according to NOAA.
The dot graph below shows the temperatures relative to average for September. Alaska, Western Greenland and the Middle East were much warmer than average last month. You can see some cooling relative to the strengthening La Nina in the tropical Pacific.
Some have argued that the earth is heading for a cooler phase. The warmth of 2010 continues the unmistakable warming trend that has been in progress for the past 30 to 50 years.
Stormy pattern brewing next week?
It looks like our streak of dry weather may come to an end next week.
A potentially wet pattern is emerging for late October in the Upper Midwest. Medium range models like the GFS are cranking out two distinct storm systems. The fist could bring widespread rainfall next Monday and Tuesday.
The models are all over the place for Halloween weekend, but some model runs bring much colder temperatures, and hint at a strong pre-Halloween storm system that could bring wind, rain, and possibly even snow to parts of Minnesota by Halloween weekend. It's too early to tell how much rain (or potentially snow) could fall in parts of Minnesota, but the weather maps are looking a little scary as we head toward Halloween.
GFS model cranks up a fall rain storm by next Monday & Tuesday in the Upper Midwest.
Enjoy another dry and relatively mild week, and get ready for a change to a much cooler and wetter pattern next week.
PH
Minnesota 2010: Welcome to Chicago!
Posted at 8:46 AM on October 14, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Winter
Welcome to Chicago, Minnesota. Or how about Kansas City with lakes. Or tornado alley north.
That's what the climate has felt like to many Minnesotans over the past 7 months. Since March temperatures are running about 4.5 degrees above average for much of Minnesota. That's more like the climate of Chicago, or southern Iowa on the way down I-35 toward Kansas City.
Weather extremes and oddities this year in Minnesota include:
-The first snowless March on record for many Minnesotans. Temps ran + 8.9 degrees in the metro.
-Another major flood on the Red River this spring
-The biggest tornado outbreak in Minnesota history in June.
-One of the wettest summers on record for much of Minnesota.
-Rare major to record floods in September.
-A string of 80 degree days in October, with temperatures running 7 to 10 degrees above average in Minnesota
So in this year of extreme weather, what can we expect in Minnesota this winter? It depends on how you feel the dice are loaded.
The strongest La Nina episode in decades appears to be ramping up in the tropical Pacific. The cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SST's) tend to load the dice in favor of colder than average winters in the Upper Midwest.
CPC agrees with the winter outlook, with odds favoring colder than average temps during the upcoming meteorological winter months of December through February.
But the forecast of a colder winter comes against the backdrop of a longer term trend toward milder (and shorter) winters in Minnesota. Since 1998, winter temperatures in Minnesota have skewed warmer than average for 8 of the past 12 winters.
So the interesting question in this forecasters mind this winter is; will the odds of a colder than average winter in La Nina years overcome the overall long term trend of milder winters in Minnesota?
It's La Nina vs. climate change in Minnesota this winter, and we'll know who the winner is sometime in March.
Enjoy the lingering fall colors this fine fall weekend as we head toward slightly cooler weather next week.
PH
Climate experts in Minnesota this week
Posted at 4:51 PM on September 14, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate change
Here's one you may want to put on the calendar this week.
The 18th annual UM Kuehnast Lecture Series and the Clean Water and Climate Adaption 2010 Summit are happening this week at the UM landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen.
The lecture and summit will bring several notable climate experts to the Twin Cities Thursday and Friday.
The talks will feature various sessions on climate change and adaption. The Kuehnast Lecture is free and open to the public, and all are encouraged to attend. This is a great opportunity to get some first hand knowledge on climate change without all the hype.
Here are some details on the free headline event.
18th Annual Kuehnast Lecture
Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 7:00 to 8:30 PM
University of Minnesota Landscape Arboretum
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Different Climate Models:
Providing Guidance to Policymakers and Impact Analysts
Dr. Ben Santer
Climate Services for Society:
Challenges and Opportunities
Dr. Eileen Shea
The Clean Water and Climate Adaption 2010 Summit takes place Thursday and Friday, also at the Arboretum. The event features a host of excellent speakers, including UM and MPR's own climate specialist Dr. Mark Seeley.
Minnesota Twins game day meteorologist Craig Edwards and myself will chip in our two cents worth on recent severe weather trends in Minnesota.
Registration is required for the Summit, which you can do here online or on site Thursday or Friday.
Rain on the way:
We're still on track for a soaker tomorrow. The latest forecast runs crank out a good inch for much of central and southern Minnesota, with locally higher amounts possible. The vigorous system is likely to spread rain into the metro by around noontime, and provide a good soaking through evening rush hour before pulling out Wednesday evening.
Plan of bringing your rain gear with your Wednesday!
PH
Heavy rain & thunder: Greenland ice & climate change
Posted at 8:26 AM on August 10, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(5 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Heat, Severe weather
How do you spell relief?
R-A-I-N.
That's our best hope today for temporarily breaking the back of our August heat wave.
A warm front gurgling north out of Iowa today is pushing scattered rain into southern Minnesota. The morning showers and embedded thunder are mostly garden variety summer showers with locally heavy downpours.
Update 10:15pm:
The Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven reports 1.25" of rain in the past hour. Rain was torrential, and came with wind gusts to at least 45mph.
An urban flood advisory has been issued for the Twin Cities metro for a quick shot of 1" to 2" of rain. Expect localized street flooding with torrential downpours as storms pass through late morning into midday. Gusty winds to 45 mph will also accompany storms.
Severe weather may increase later this afternoon and tonight.
The threat for severe storms will increase by late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlights some uncertainty in the forecast, but hints at the potential for a few storms to reach severe criteria later today. Keep in mind the threshold for a severe thunderstorms is winds of at least 58mph and or 1" diameter hail.
The highest threat for sever weather appears to be in southwest and south central Minnesota today.
Heavy rain possible:
The main feature of tonight's weather system may be heavy rain. The forecast models ar cranking out anywhere from .50" to well over an inch of rain through Wednesday morning. Another timely free watering is on the way for gardens, lawns and farm fields in Minnesota which are set to deliver record crop numbers this year.
August heat wave:
One step outside and you know it's been stiflingly hot this month. You can barely catch a breath with Amazon Jungle heat and humidity levels.
After enduring our hottest day so far this year on Sunday with a blazing 96 degrees in the metro, Monday threw a 95 up on the board Monday. The numbers tell the story this month.
August temps so far: +7.4 degrees
4 days at or above 90 (out of 9 so far in August)
12 days at or above 90 this year (annual average is 13, and we will likely exceed that number this week)
Look for at least 2 more 90 degree days this week before a cold front sweeps away the heat and humidity by Saturday bringing welcome relief.
2010: Year of the tornado:
By my count and Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climatology office, we've seen about 47 tornadoes skip across Minnesota this year. That's nearly twice the long term annual average of about 25, and even higher than the more recent decadal average of around 40. It appears the trend is for tornado alley to be shifting north, and Minnesota has been ground zero for twisters this year.
Massive Greenland ice chunk breaks off:
No doubt you've heard about the massive chunk of glacial ice that broke off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier this past week. Check out these amazing numbers.
-The ice chunk is 4 times the size of Manhattan Island
-The calved glacier is 600 feet thick (now that's an ice cube)
-This is the largest Arctic iceberg to break off in 48 years, since 1962
So is it climate change?
According to Dr. Jay Zwally of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...yes. Dr. Zwally has spent a career studying glaciers and climate, and says this is "100%" attributable to climate change. The Arctic is warming at a rate 3 to 4 times faster than the lower altitudes, and this is contributing to massive loss of glacial and sea ice in the Arctic regions.
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Other scientists are divided on the issue.
I've always said you can't use one year or one event as evidence of global climate change. But consider the evidence for 2010, which continues the long term trend of an overheated planet.
-2010 is the hottest year on record so far
-At least 7 countries have set new all time record highs this year
-Record heat, record fires and thick smoke choking Moscow and Russia
-Largest iceberg in 48 years breaks off from Greenland
-The past decade is the hottest on record
-The 2000s were hotter that the 1990s, which were hotter than the 1980s, which were hotter than the 1970s.
This is either the mother of all coincidences, or this planet is on course for even more heat and rapid earth changes over the next 10 years.
PH
Massive Mayfly hatch detected on doppler radar
Posted at 8:25 AM on July 20, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(2 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Hurricanes, Remote sensing
The folks who invented Doppler never expected this.
A massive Mayfly hatch over the Mississippi last night near La Crosse shows up brilliantly on the Doppler radar reflectivity loop last night. The hatch occurred between about 9pm and 10pm from near Winona south through La Crosse and to near Guttenberg, Iowa.
Mayfly "cloud" visible on NWS La Crosse doppler radar Monday night.
As the dense "cloud" of Mayflies hatches and drifts over the river valley, it shows up on Doppler as the radar beam hits the cloud and returns to the radar site. Doppler radar is so sensitive that birds, insects and even dust are visible in clear air mode.
Tropical Storm Bonnie?
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the chance that a tropical wave near Puerto Rico will strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours from 20% to 40%. If it does, it would become tropical storm Bonnie.
Many forecast models then track the system toward the southeastern United States.
Stay tuned.
2010: Hottest year on record so far
It's either the mother of all coincidences or climate change is kicking into high gear.
We're half way through 2010 and NOAA reports that globally this is the hottest year on record so far. Check out these startling facts.
-June 2010 was the hottest on record globally (+1.22 degrees F)
-The past 4 MONTHS (Mar-Jun) have all been the hottest on record globally!
-2010 is on pace to be the hottest year on record globally (+1.22 degrees F)
-June was the 304th consecutive month above average globally!
-The last below average month was 25 years ago, February 1985. That's a lifetime for nearly 1/3 of the world's population.
2010 is on pace to surpass 1998 as the hottest year on record globally.
The data takes the wind out of the sails of those who would claim that the earth has been "cooling" since 1998. The 10 hottest years globally have all occurred since 1998, and there has not been one cooler than average year globally in 25 years.
You do the math.
PH
2010: Hottest year on record so far
Posted at 4:13 PM on May 17, 2010
by Paul Huttner
(3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
NOAA reports today that 2010 is the hottest year on record globally so far from January through April. April is also the hottest on record globally.
2010 global temperature anomalies so far. Note the relative warmth over Canada and the Upper Midwest with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above average so far this year.
(click for bigger image)
Global temperature anomalies for April 2010.
Here are the highlights from the NOAA report:
•The combined April global land and ocean average surface temperature was the warmest on record at 58.1°F (14.5°C), which is 1.37°F (0.76°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F (13.7°C).
•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature was the warmest on record for January-April at 56.0°F (13.3°C), which is 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average.
•El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weakened in April, as sea-surface temperature anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weakening contributed significantly to the warmth observed in the tropical belt and the warmth of the overall ocean temperature for April. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to continue through June.
•Arctic sea ice was below normal for the 11th consecutive April, covering an average of 5.7 million square miles (14.7 million square kilometers). This is 2.1 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the 15th smallest April extent since records began in 1979. It was, however, the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001.
•Based on NOAA satellite observations, snow cover extent was the fourth-lowest on record (since 1967), and below the 1967-2010 average for the Northern Hemisphere for the seventh consecutive April. Warmer-than-normal conditions over North America, Europe and parts of Russia contributed to the small snow footprint.
•The North American snow cover extent for the month was the smallest on record for April. It also was the largest negative anomaly, meaning difference below the long-term average, on record for any month.
With 2010 now 1/3 complete, the globe in on pace for the hottest year on record.
Take a look at these remarkable facts from NOAA about the duration of warmer than average temperatures globally.
•April 2010 was the 302nd consecutive month with average global surface (land + ocean) temperature above the 20th century average.
◦The last April with below average temperatures occurred in 1976.
◦The last month with an average global surface (land + ocean) temperature below the 20th century average was February 1985.
Think about those facts for a minute. The odds of having 302 months in a row with above averge global temperatures is astounding. Not once in 25 years has the earth seen a single month cooler than the 20th century average.
Last October I posted that there were several indications that 2010 could be the hottest year on record globally. So far those indications are right on track.
PH
Climate Stunner? Pacific Grey Whale in Mediterranean
Posted at 4:17 PM on May 12, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate change
Scientists are stunned by what appears to be the first sighting of a Pacific grey whale in the Atlantic in centuries.
The whale was sighted recently off the Israeli coast city of Herzliya is believed to be the first pacific grey whale in Mediterranean waters since the 18th century. The whale is believed to have lost its way in route to the Gulf of California and ended up in the Mediterranean Sea instead.
Marine biologists are abuzz with the news. The event has been described as as one of the "most important whale sightings ever," according to Dr Aviad Scheinin, chairman of Israels Marine Mammal Research and Assistance Center which spotted the whale.
The whale, which was first sighted off Herzliya in central Israel on Saturday, is believed to have travelled thousands of miles from the north Pacific after losing its way in search of food.
AFP reports Scheinin said the creature, a mature whale measuring some 12 metres (39 feet) and weighing around 20 tons, probably reached the Atlantic through the Northwest Passage, an Arctic sea route that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and is normally covered with ice.
"Here you have an animal that is supposed to live in the Pacific and because the ice in the Arctic is melting, it managed to get through this corridor near the Bering Strait," Scheinin told AFP.
The sighting is significant from a climate change perspective as evidence that ice free conditions in much of the Arctic over the past 3 summers has lead to migration patterns that could have not occurred in the past.
Numerous studies document plants and animals reaction to recent climate changes. This may be one more big (200 ton) piece of evidence that climate change is indeed changing the way our world operates.
PH
Amazing Spring 2010: Lilacs 3 weeks early
Posted at 3:04 PM on April 26, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Springtime
Lilac buds ready to open on a cool April morning at the Huttner Weather Lab.
Our amazing spring of 2010 continues. Last Friday I was stunned to see a row of common purple lilacs blooming in Deephaven. That's April 23rd!
According to long time Twin Cities phenologist Jim Gilbert's Nature Notes; this would put 2010 as one of the earliest lilac bloom years on record. The average date for the lilacs to open in the Twin Cities is around May 10th, with peak bloom the following week.
Jim's records from the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen show the early Flowering Crabapple peak bloom we're seeing now rivals the years of 1987 and 1997 when the trees also reached peak bloom in late April. Jim has observed the lilac bloom average dates have moved a full two weeks earlier in the past 40 years.
The triggers for our early spring blooms are the 4th warmest March and 2nd warmest April on record so far. This is pretty remarkable stuff when you consider that last year's lilac blooms occurred in May close to the average date.
PH
Iceland Volcano eruption sub-climatic; so far
Posted at 6:08 AM on April 16, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change, Volcanoes
It's still to early in the eruption process so far to say exactly what the long term effects the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano will be. But so far the eruption appears to be small enough to be sub-climatic in scale.
Ash plume rises from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano Thursday. (AP photo)
The prevailing westerly winds are driving the ash plume over Europe. The plume is big enough to be visible from space by weather satellites.
According to experts at the USGS, the volcano is capable of producing only regional effects so far. Unless the eruption gets much bigger, things may stay that way.
Here are some observations about the eruption at this point.
-Reports indicate the ash plume is ejecting material between 18,000 and 36,000 feet into the atmosphere. This is what's causing havoc with air traffic in Europe.
-So far there is not enough material being ejected into the atmosphere to cause climatic scale impacts.
-Reports and measurements indicate the glacial melt is effectively "scrubbing" some of the Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) out of the volcanic plume before it can reach the atmosphere. SO2 is the most effective gas when it comes to reflecting incoming sunlight and causing potential climatic scale cooling.
-The plume consists of fine scale rock and glass particles. Most of these particles range in size between 1/12th and 1/250,000 of an inch. These tiny particles can stay suspended for months or years in the upper atmosphere.
Mt. Pinatubo erupts in the Philippines in 1991.
This is a tiny eruption so far when compared historically to bigger volcanic events.
-Mt. Pinatubo's eruption in 1991 was rated a 6 on an eruption scale of 1 to 8. That eruption is credited with cooling the northern hemisphere 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit for 1 to 2 years.
-The gigantic Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815 is credited with causing the infamous "Year without a summer" in New England in 1816. Frost and snow in every month that summer caused widespread crop failures in the northeast United States.
PH
March 2010: Hottest ever globally
Posted at 4:55 PM on April 15, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Climate change
If you feel like spring came early this year, you're in good company.
NOAA reports today that March 2010 was the warmest ever recorded globally. Also, global temperatures for the first quarter of 2010 (Jan-Mar) are the 4th warmest on record.
NOAA March 2010 temperature anomalies show much of the globe was warmer than average in March. Note the biggest (warmest) departures from average in Canada and the northern U.S. including Minnesota.
(Click for larger image)
From the NOAA release:
•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record at 56.3°F (13.5°C), which is 1.39°F (0.77°C) above the 20th century average of 54.9°F (12.7°C).
•The worldwide ocean surface temperature was the highest for any March on record --1.01°F (0.56°C) above the 20th century average of 60.7°F (15.9°C).
•Separately, the global land surface temperature was 2.45°F (1.36°C) above the 20th century average of 40.8 °F (5.0°C) -- the fourth warmest on record. Warmer-than-normal conditions dominated the globe, especially in northern Africa, South Asia and Canada. Cooler-than-normal regions included Mongolia and eastern Russia, northern and western Europe, Mexico, northern Australia, western Alaska and the southeastern United States.
•El Niño weakened to moderate strength in March, but it contributed significantly to the warmth in the tropical belt and the overall ocean temperature. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to continue its influence in the Northern Hemisphere at least through the spring.
•For the year-to-date, the combined global land- and ocean-surface temperature of 55.3°F (13.0°C) was the fourth warmest for a January-March period. This value is 1.19°F (0.66°C) above the 20th century average.
With 25% of 2010 in the books climatologically speaking, it looks like temperatures are on track for another top 5 or 10 "warmest year on record" globally.
PH
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