Updraft Category Archive: Blizzard

Long range outlooks, a roll of the dice

Posted at 6:10 AM on March 1, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Climate, Winter, Winter 2011-12

We kept waiting for the other boot to drop and an old fashion Minnesota winter to beat us down. Here we are on the first day of meteorological spring and the outlook calls for rather mild conditions to continue in our neck of the woods.

NOAA's Winter Outlook released November 2011 indicated a fairly high confidence level of colder than normal temperatures. NOAA's winter outlook was similar to that made by others, including the Farmers Almanac.

Top Ten Warmest Meteorological Winters for the Twin Cities.

Rank Year Average Temperature (F)

1 1877-1878 29.0

2 1930-1931 26.9

3 2001-2002 26.8

4 2011-2012 26.2
5 1997-1998 25.9

6 1986-1987 25.8

7 1982-1983 24.0

8 1991-1992 23.5

9 1943-1944 23.5

10 1920-1921 23.2

Snowstorm totals provided by the National Weather Service Duluth, Whiteout conditions hammered Duluth to Silver Bay on Wednesday.

A daily record of 9.7 inches of snow was measured at Duluth on February 29th. The peak wind gust was 56 mph.

Check out the snowfall reports for central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin at the Chanhassen NWS web link.

Much needed moisture fell with this major storm. Here's a graphic of the cooperative observers reports. Precipitation in northeast Minnesota occurred after these observations were posted on Wednesday.

There was a phrase used in the weather lab that was often quoted when looking ahead, "the trend is your friend." Here's a look at NOAA's temperature outlook for March, favoring above normal tempratures. First order of business is to start the snow melt.

But in the meantime, get out this weekend and knock yourself out with playing in the snow. Temperatures should be seasonal. No big snows are see for Minnesota the next couple of days.

Have you heard about the warm-up coming? See this temperature forecast from the GFS model for Tuesday afternoon.

CE

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Blizzard warnings expand; Japan nuke meltdown?

Posted at 3:00 AM on March 12, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Blizzard, Earthquakes, Tsunami

Update 3:00am

Blizzard warnings are expanding to include west metro counties including Carver and Wright. Near blizzard conditions with blowing snow and winds gusting over 30 mph are occurring Saturday morning, even in the metro.

(Click to enlarge)

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Expect difficult travel for a few hours Saturday morning until the wind and snow subside.

Japan nuke explosion: Possible radiation release?

From Japan's NHK News:

"Tokyo Electric Power Company says an explosion was heard at one of its nuclear reactors in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture. It says several workers were injured.

Radioactive substances have been detected near the reactor."

Winds near the reactor site in Fukushima are very light; meaning any plume of radiation would not disperse quickly. It is not yet known how severe the radioactive release will be.

Japan Meteorological Agency winds

-Latest surface winds from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

-Live streaming Japanese news from jibtv

PH

***original post Friday at 3:53pm***

A powerful cold front is racing through Minnesota overnight into Saturday.

As the front sails through, a shot 2" to 4" of new snow will combine with winds of 25 to 40 mph to reduce visibilities to under 1/4 mile in the Red River Valley tonight and early Saturday. The winds will also be strong enough to pick up snow already on the ground and send it airborne, creating "ground blizzard" conditions.

Blizzard warnings have been issued by Grand Forks NWS.

Be prepared for blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley tonight & Saturday morning.

Anatomy of a megaquake & tsunami:

As posted here early Friday morning, Japan's 8.9 magnitude megaquake wat the 5th strongest in the world since 1900. The scenes of devastation from Honshu are both horrifying and unreal.

Believe me, with all of the weather drama that Minnesota can dish out, we've never seen anything like this. I can only imagine the shock and devastation the people of Japan are living through, and this is only the beginning if what will take years to rebuild.

You've seen the video, but there are also some amazing graphics that illustrate the power and reach of the tsunami.

NOAA Tsunami propagation animation: This incredible video animates the tsunami waves as the propagate throughout the Pacific basin.

NOAA maximum wave amplitude show energy streaming from epicenter.

Maximum wave amplitude plot.

You can find more information from the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center.

Waiting is over, it's snow time

Posted at 10:01 AM on February 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Latest mesoscale discussion from the lead forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center. Heavy snow falling at the rate of one to two inches per hour through the afternoon. Let's see if we can stack up twelve inches by midnight in some locations.

Note the shift of the snow band to the north, which has been over Mankato for several hours.
CE

Blizzard to near blizzard conditions expected

Posted at 6:10 AM on February 20, 2011 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter storms

The Winter Storm Warnings are posted for southern and central Minnesota and bordering areas. Snow along with sleet and some freezing rain will advance from South Dakota and northern Iowa into Minnesota this morning. Travel conditions will deteriorate throughout the middle to late morning. Visibility in blowing snow will be reduced to several hundred feet at times this afterooon. If you must travel complete your travel as soon as possible.

Here is the latest outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the NWS. This encompasses a lot of territory where more than a foot of snow is expected to accumulate. Paul posted the snowfall potentials derived by model data. Some places may tally more than twenty inches by daybreak on Monday.

To the south of this highlighted area a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected. Here's a recent graphic indicating the danger of ice today.

The heaviest accumulation of snow will take place from about noon today to 2AM tonight. Winds of 30 mph will blow and drift snow, particularly in rurual areas.

I have suggested to individuals that they complete travel by noon today if you are moving about the region south of Grand Forks, North Dakota to Hayward, Wisconsin.
CE

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Groundhog: Early spring...Chicago hopes so!

Posted at 4:50 PM on February 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard

Happy Groundhog Day!

Punxutawney Phil saw no shadow today...predicting spring is right around the corner. I don't know if "Chaska Chuck" or "Cottage Grove Charlie" would agree in Minnesota where the sun was bright this morning.

Still, it's a great day to be a weatherman. It's a tough day to live in Chicago and many other Midwest and Northeastern U.S. cities. Let's start in Chicago.

Chicago: 3rd biggest snowstorm on record

The 20.2" snow bomb at Chicago's O'Hare Airport makes this the 3rd biggest snowstorm on record in Chicago. It's also only the 3rd storm or record to produce 20" or greater. Here's the data from Chicago NWS.

And the map...

Here are some more totals!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1246 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011

...MORNING SNOWFALL ROUNDUP...

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 24-HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY TAKEN AT 7 AM.

24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY(02/02/11)...

NORTHERN ILLINOIS SNOW
LOCATION (COUNTY): FALL(INCHES)

WOODSTOCK 5NW (MCHENRY)......................21.1
SPRING GROVE 2N (MCHENRY)....................20.8
ST. CHARLES 6NW (KANE).......................20.6
ANTIOCH (LAKE)...............................20.0
BEACH PARK 1W (LAKE).........................20.0
OTTAWA 1NW (LA SALLE)........................20.0
MARSEILLES 6WNW (LA SALLE)...................20.0
HOFFMAN ESTATES 5W (COOK)....................19.0
PARK FOREST 1NNE (COOK)......................19.0
WESTMONT 1SSE (DU PAGE)......................19.0
NORTH AURORA 2NE (KANE)......................19.0
ST. CHARLES (KANE)...........................19.0
PARK FOREST (COOK)...........................19.0
ST CHARLES (KANE)............................19.0
ELK GROVE VILLAGE 2WSW (COOK)................18.5
INVERNESS 2S (COOK)..........................18.2
ELK GROVE VILLAGE 1ESE (COOK)................18.0
NAPERVILLE 3ESE (DU PAGE)....................18.0
WAUKEGAN 2N (LAKE)...........................18.0
RIVERWOODS (LAKE)............................18.0
SHERIDAN (LA SALLE)..........................18.0
WONDER LAKE 1WNW (MCHENRY)...................18.0
PAW PAW (LEE)................................18.0
NAPERVILLE 1NW (DU PAGE).....................17.9
OAK BROOK (DU PAGE)..........................17.7
LAKE ZURICH (LAKE)...........................17.5
MUNDELEIN (LAKE).............................17.5
ALSIP (COOK).................................17.3
GENOA (DE KALB)..............................17.1
BARRINGTON (LAKE)............................17.0
ELBURN (KANE)................................17.0
OAK PARK 1SW (COOK)..........................17.0
LA GRANGE PARK 1SSW (COOK)...................17.0
LISLE (DU PAGE)..............................17.0
LILY LAKE 2E (KANE)..........................17.0
HOMER GLEN 1ENE (WILL).......................17.0
JOLIET (WILL)................................17.0
WAUCONDA (LAKE)..............................17.0
WATSEKA 5W (IROQUOIS)........................16.5
OTTAWA (LA SALLE)............................16.5
STREAMWOOD (COOK)............................16.5
BULL VALLEY 2WNW (MCHENRY)...................16.1
CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON)......................16.0
DWIGHT (LIVINGSTON)..........................16.0
BRIDGEVIEW 1NNW (COOK).......................16.0
CHICAGO RIDGE (COOK).........................16.0
ELBURN 3NNE (KANE)...........................16.0
SHERIDAN 3SSE (LA SALLE).....................16.0
RANSOM 3NNE (LA SALLE).......................16.0
CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON)......................16.0
DE KALB (DE KALB)............................15.7
DE KALB 1SSW (DE KALB).......................15.5
HEBRON (MCHENRY).............................15.3
MELROSE PARK 2NW (COOK)......................15.3
PONTIAC 1ESE (LIVINGSTON)....................15.3
OAK PARK 2S (COOK)...........................15.0
GENEVA 2ENE (KANE)...........................15.0
LINCOLNSHIRE 1N (LAKE).......................15.0
BYRON 3N (OGLE)..............................15.0
PEOTONE (WILL)...............................15.0
PIPER CITY (FORD)............................15.0
PEOTONE (WILL)...............................15.0
PONTIAC (LIVINGSTON).........................15.0
WINFIELD (DU PAGE)...........................15.0
CAROL STREAM (DU PAGE).......................14.8
CORTLAND (DE KALB)...........................14.6
MONTGOMERY 1SSE (KENDALL)....................14.5
MONTGOMERY 2SSE (KENDALL)....................14.5
OTTAWA 2N (LA SALLE).........................14.5
ROCKFORD 3NE (WINNEBAGO).....................14.3
LISLE 1SE (DU PAGE)..........................14.1
AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE).........................14.0
ROSELLE 1ESE (DU PAGE).......................14.0
BATAVIA 1WNW (KANE)..........................14.0
NEW LENOX 2SE (WILL).........................14.0
MOMENCE (KANKAKEE)...........................14.0

Phil: Spring right around the corner!

The Midwest mega-storm delivered a cloudy rainy day to Punxutawney. That means Phil saw no shadow...and folklore says spring is right around the corner. ABC News has the video.

Trouble with Phil is...he's only 39% accurate according to Stormfax.

Minnesota: Thaws ahead?

There is some good news in our weather pattern for those who want ot warm up. An undulating jet stream means that our cold spells should be broken by periodic thaws over the next couple of weeks.

Temperatures will recover toward 20 Thursday, and we'll have a shot at 30+ as we head into the weekend!

Hang in there!

PH

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Strong winds this morning, easing later

Posted at 7:18 AM on January 1, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Morning Update from NWS at Grand Forks:
"Poor travel conditions to continue this morning with slow improvement this afternoon.

Low pressure over west central Minnesota will move east this morning...allowing northwest winds to increase a bit over the red river valley and into west central Minnesota. Thus blizzard conditions are expected to continue through at least noon over eastern North Dakota....the Red River valley....and a part of west central Minnesota.

Look for visibilities in towns and sheltered locations to run one half to one mile....while one quarter or less visibilities will be the norm in open country. Poor conditions may continue into the afternoon in parts of the region. Light snow will continue in most areas until early afternoon but additional accumulations will be less than an inch. Winds will diminsh quickly late today and this evening. "

Flurries and very cold wind chill readings can be expected state-wide on this New Year's Day.
CE

Snow and wind will continue northwest Minnesota

Posted at 7:09 PM on December 31, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Early this evening weather conditions reported around the upper Midwest show that the snow and wind have eased off a bit. Visibilities in snow and blowing have improved slightly in west central Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.

Winter Weather information from Chanhassen NWS.

Periods of heavy snow and blowing snow will continue overnight in the Red River Valley. As the surface low pressure travels further away from Minnesota later tonight, winds are expected to gust once again to better than 30 mph. Cold temperatures will take hold statewide by morning.

Brisk winds and cold temperatures will greet you as you head out on New Year's morning.

All the best in 2011. May the wind always be at your back.
CE

Moisture spreading north

Posted at 8:57 AM on December 31, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Here is a snapshot of the regional radar centered on Sioux Falls, SD. This precipitation is falling as snow and will spread into soutwest and western Minnesota as the morning progresses.

Travel conditions will deteriorate later today west of the Twin Cities. Listen to advice from local authorities on highway conditions or monitor the MNDOT website.

Minnesota road conditions.

Winter weather information from the Grand Forks NWS.
CE

More snow northern Minnesota

Posted at 7:56 AM on December 30, 2010 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard

This first system is still gearing up for a pretty good dump of snow in northern Minnesota today and into this evening. Several Inches of fresh snow will accumulate from Bemidji on to Ely. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for this region.

A cold rain is on tap for southeast Minnesota, with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow from Little Falls to Duluth.

For your New Year's Eve, the weather maps are still painting quite a storm to track from eastern Kansas to the Twin Cities on Friday. A Blizzard Watch has been posted for the Red River Valley and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Friday and Friday night that Includes; Marshall, Willmar and St. Cloud.
CE

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Heavy snow band on radar

Posted at 10:23 AM on December 11, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Screen capture of the regional radar shortly after 10am CST. Heavy snow bands are rotating slowly north towards the south Metro. So look for snow to be very heavy between 11am and 2pm in the Twin Cties, including points west, east and south.

Storm center slowly moving east

Posted at 9:18 AM on December 11, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Blizzard

Here's an image from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model that depicts the heaviest snow band to shift slightly south during the course of the afternoon. The red area is greater than ten inches total between 7am and 8pm today. As of 9am between five to eight inches has fallen from west of the Twin Cities through Minneapolis/St. Paul and into New Richmond Wisconsin.

Blizzard-like conditions

Posted at 7:40 AM on December 11, 2010 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard

Radar at daybreak showed expansive area of snow over southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Rain in far southeast Minnesota will change to snow soon.

Winds have increased to 40 mph in south central Minnesota. Blizzard conditions will last into the evening hours from western Minnesota and into Iowa.

Snow is likely to fall at the rate of an inch an hour for the next several hours.

Dangerous wind chills are expected. Don't become a victim of this storm. Stay put if you can.

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Update 4 am: Snow eases south, picks up later

Posted at 4:00 AM on December 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (10 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Snow, Winter storms

4 am Update:

Okay, I never can sleep during big storms anyway so here's a quick overnight update.

At 3:20am I measured 5" of snowfall in Deephaven at the weather lab. We have been under an intense band of snowfall producing 1" per hour for the past 2-3 hours in the Lake Minnetonka area.

Radar trends indicate (and the latest model runs support) a lull in snowfall working through southern Minnesota and into the south metro. There may be a let up in snowfall in some areas early Saturday morning...but I expect snowfall to fill in again as the storm reaches peak intensity Saturday.

NEXRAD shows a (temporary?) lull in snowfall working into south metro at 3:45am.

The late night NAM model cranked out an insane 28.1" snowfall total! This would rival the Halloween Mega Storm if it verifies...but I do not buy that total just yet. What we refer to as "short term radar and satellite trends" or "nowcasting" suggest a lull in the action for a few critical hours early Saturday morning that could keep snowfall totals in check.

(Click for bigger image)

For now, I am still forecasting snowfall totals of between 10" and 20" as a range for the greater metro area and much of western Wisconsin.

Still, the storm now appears to be coming in 2 or three intense waves of snowfall intensity...and the second wave late Saturday morning through midday could be the most intense. Forecast models suggest (and satellite trends may support) a period of intense snowfall with possible thundersnow producing prolific snowfall rates of up to 3" to 4" per hour spinning up toward the metro around 8-9am.

Potential "snowbursts" AM & PM?
(Click to enlarge)

If that happens we could pick up a lot of snow in a hurry!

The NAM model then suggests another lull in snowfall intensity...with another 1" to 2" per hour burst late in the afternoon.

Bottom line: The storm will come in waves, and it really doesn't matter at this point exactly how much snow falls...there will be enough snow and wind to produce blizzard to near blizzard conditions in much of southern Minnesota Saturday.

Stay tuned to MRR News stations (KNOW 91.1FM in the metro) Saturday. Craig Edwards will have hourly updates, and the latest snow totals and model runs through the morning and I will pick things up with hourly updates after noon as we follow the storm through the day.

Be safe, and enjoy the snow if you can!

PH

Evening Update:

Ice and snow progressing northeast as expected tonight. It still looks like a wintery mix could begin anywhere between about 8pm and 10pm in the metro...then change to all snow and pick up in intensity after midnight.

I set up the Twin Cities radar loop to show snow, ice and rain. Latest radar update here.

We could have 6" of snow on the ground already by early Saturday morning in many areas.

Latest model trends all support high snow totals...in the 15"+ range. I'm sticking with a forecast snow total range of 10" to 20" for the metro and western Wisconsin by Saturday evening.

Travel should be fine around the metro until 9pm or so...then al bets are off. Get home early, or be ready for snow (and maybe a little ice) if you are going to be out later tonight.

PH

Doppler Update 4:30pm :

Sioux Falls doppler showing mixed bag of rain, ice and snow busting out and moving NE into southwest Minnesota during the 4pm hour.

Moisture surge should reach the metro between 8pm & 10pm tonight. A possible wintery mix should quickly change to all snow and intensity will increase rapidly after midnight.

Just when you thought it was safe to think about maybe lowering snowfall forecasts...the 18Z (noon) NAM model run cranks out a 19" snowfall total for the metro!

That's the highest output of any numerical forecast model so far. I think that's probably on the high end of the range...but it supports the notion of a 10" to 20" forecast in the max snowfall band.

PH

All systems are go for a MAJOR winter storm in Minnesota tonight and Saturday.

It looks like this storm will deserve all the pre-storm hype we can pile on, as a powerful mix of snow, wind and bitter cold locks in over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this weekend.

Here's the latest (and hopefully best) thinking at this point...and some headlines on the storm.

-Winter storm warnings are up for the metro, blizzard warnings for much of SW MN, inclding counties just southwest of the metro!

Winter storm warnings are flying for the metro. Blizzard warnings include Mankato, Redwood Falls, Marshall and Worthington.

-The biggest emphasis and IMPACTS with this storm will be heavy snow, wind causing severe blowing and drifting snow, and bitter cold behind the storm. There may be near blizzard conditons in much of Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night! We all love to focus on inches...but travel conditons will be the same (travel difficult to impassable) Saturday regeardless of 10" or 20" of total snowfall.

-Snow will spread into SW Minnesota this afternoon, and should begin in the metro sometime between 9pm and midnight.

-The snow will pick up in intensity after midnight, and snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour from midnight through about 9-10 am Saturday. There could be convective snowbursts or "thundersnow" with this storm overnight into early Saturday. Snowfall rates can approach 2" to 3" per hour in thundersnow.

Nam model snowfall output indicating 1"+ per hour for many hours...and a total of 18.9"!
(Click for much more easily readable image)

-Snow will continue through much of Saturday PM before winding down late PM.

-Strong winds between 25 and 40 mph will kick up Saturday into Saturday night, causing severe blowing and drifting of relatively dry powdery snowfall. There will be blizzard or near blizzard conditions in much of Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night. (Blizzard criteria = sustained winds of 35 mph and visibilities at or under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow.)

-The storm will likely mix with freezing rain along the I-90 corridor...and sleet in south central Minnesota.

-Storm total snowfall accumulations could approach 10" to 20" for much of east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by late Saturday...including the Twin Cities metro area. This has the potential to be the biggest snowfall since the Halloween Mega storm in 1991 for some locations.

NAM model continues to lay out the heaviest snow band (up to 16"+?) right across the Twin Cities metro Saturday.

Model runs with "Cobb Technique" snowfall output...10" to 18"?

This will be a major winter storm...and possibly (hopefully!) the biggest storm this winter season. I expect travel to be extremely difficult (impassable?) outside the metro by Saturday PM & evening. I also expect numerous road closures and MNDOT may have to pull plows off the roads Saturday in some areas.

A top 10 storm?

For the record, I do not think this storm has the capacity to rival the Halloween Mega Storm for overall snowfall totals.

But, if we get 15" in the metro with this storm, it would be the 11th biggest snowstorm in Twin Cities history. Here are the top snow storms in Twin Cities history courtesy of the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Top Thirteen Largest Snowfalls for Twin Cities:

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985
12. 14.3 inches: November 29 - November 30, 1991
13. 14.1 inches: March 22 - March 23, 1952

If the snow total with this storm exceed 16" it will in fact be the biggest snow since the Halloween Mega Strom of 1991. That's a tall order, but it looks like at least possibility with this storm. A 15" snowfall would make this the biggest snow in the metro in 11 years, since March of 1999.

Bottom line: A major winter storm will bring snow, wind and then bitter cold to Minnesota during the next 48 hours. Be ready!

PH

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