Updraft Category Archive: Astronomy

February Sky Show! Near 40 Thursday? Arctic Friday; 2nd warmest winter so far

Posted at 5:25 PM on February 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12

Stronger February sun boosts temps into the 30s again

40 degrees possible in southwest Minnesota Thursday?

Arctic front arrives Thursday night!

Near 0 in the metro Saturday morning?

"Pine Tree Effect" season kicks in in northern Minnesota

February Sky Show!

This is a great night and month for sky watchers!

Several planets are bright and scattered across the evening sky this month. Venus is the most brilliant...that brightly glowing planet in the southwest sky after sunset has extra "hang time" this month as it sits higher above the horizon now.

The just past full moon rises in the east after sunset and dazzles with Mars and the constellation Leo.

Orion is high up in the southeast sky at dusk, and rides the southern sky all night long.

Get out on these crystal clear nights and enjoy the show!

More details from Sky and Telescope.

This Week's Planet Roundup

"Mercury is out of sight in conjunction with the Sun. By the end of February, however, it will be back in view having its best evening apparition of the year, low in the western twilight.

Neptune is lost in twilight."

here's a good video from astrocast.tv

Milder Thursday!

As cold air begins to pour into northern Minnesota Thursday, a wedge of milder air will slide into southern Minnesota ahead of the advancing cold front.

With ever stronger February sun and little or no snow cover, temps could again make a run at 40 in much of western & southern Minnesota...and maybe even the metro.

Arctic Front Arrives Thursday night:

By Friday morning you'll feel the newest attempted shot of arctic air in Minnesota. Temps should plunge below zero up north, and single digits in the south.

The cold air will last through Saturday, before a moderating trends kicks in Sunday afternoon.

Temps could dip to near 0 in the metro Saturday morning, with some sub-zero readings in the 'Burbs. Northern Minne4sota should dip well below zero this weekend.

"Pine Tree Effect" kicks in:

We're moving into Pine Tree Effect season in northern Minnesota. The green trees cause the sun's rays to bounce around and warm the air faster than a snow covered prairie. On sunny calm days it can be much warmer on the Iron Range than on the snow covered treeless prairies of western Minnesota.

With less snow cover this winter the effect may not be as pronounced as in previous years.

2nd warmest winter on record so far:

More from the MN Climate Working Group:

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees.

Twin Cities Warmest Meteorological Winters
Top Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperatures (Twin Cities 1872-2012)

Rank Year Avg. Temp
--------------------------
1.) 1877-1878 29.0 F
2.) 2011-2012 27.0 F*
3.) 1930-1931 26.9 F
4.) 2001-2002 26.8 F
5.) 1997-1998 25.9 F
6.) 1986-1987 25.8 F
7.) 1982-1983 24.0 F
8.) 1991-1992 23.5 F
9.) 1943-1944 23.5 F
10.) 1920-1921 23.2 F
11.) 1999-2000 23.1 F

*As of February 7
The Twin Cities International Airport has only seen three nights that have dipped below zero for the winter of 2011-2012. That means that this winter has the second fewest sub-zero nights on record back to 1872. The coldest Minimum Temperature of the 2011-2012 season so far in the Twin Cities is -11. This is in a five-way tie for the third warmest winter minimum. The warmest winter minimum is -3 in the winter of 2001-02.

Twin Cities Least Number of Below Zero Minimums in a Winter
Rank Year Number of days below zero (Twin Cities 1872-2012)
-------------------------------
1.) 2001-2002 2
2.) 2011-2012 3*
3.) 1877-1878 4
4.) 1930-1931 5
5.) 2005-2006 6
6.) 1881-1882 7
6.) 1986-1987 7
8.) 1982-1983 8
9.) 1920-1921 9
10.) 1997-1998 10

As of February 7

January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees.

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.
Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

PH

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Strongest solar storm in 6+ years may bring northern light show

Posted at 8:05 AM on January 24, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy

The sun unleashed a huge earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Monday. The resulting blast could trigger power and communications disruptions Tuesday, and may put on a light show Tuesday night. The best chance of northern lights may occur in Europe on the "nighttime" side of the planet as the CME strikes earth.

The blast is the strongest flare observed since September 2005.

More from spaceweather.com.

"ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:"

And from NOAA:

"In addition to the flare, a Coronal Mass Ejection accompanied the flare. A geomagnetic storm is a near certainty from this event, with G2 (Moderate) levels expected to start around 900 am EST Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday.

With strong geomagnetic storms possible, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras."

Sunnier, quieter week ahead:

Today will feel like January should. The clouds will gradually give way to mixed sunshine and temps will hold in the 20s.

A sunnier and milder weather pattern kicks in the rest of the week. Look for highs in the 30s, and that will mean some slushy streets and sidewalks this week.

PH

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Milder Friday & weekend ahead: Sky shows tonight

Posted at 5:05 AM on November 11, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy

It may not be a full blown "Aurora Alert" from the weather lab, but sky watchers may still see a rare treat Friday night.

The sun unleashed a weaker Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Wednesday. Though the brunt of the blast was not aimed directly at earth, the glancing blow may arrive overnight or Friday night and be enough trigger some northern lights.

NASA's SOHO observatory captures Wednesday's CME moving outward from the sun. The streaming bands are solar energy bursts that can cause northern lights as they interact with earth's atmosphere.

A so called "magnetic filament" (movie) in the vicinity of sunspot complex 1342-1343 triggered the CME.

Sky watchers in clear areas should keep an eye out for possible northern lights Thursday & Friday nights. Spaceweather.com put the chance at around 20% but it may be worth a look.

Full Moon & Jupiter still close!

Looking east after sunset and higher in the sky later on, you'll see the bright full moon with Jupiter glowing brightly to the right.

Red & Blue Too!

If you're an early riser look to the east and you may see the red planet Mars and the blue star Regulus in the pre-dawn eastern sky.

The pair can be seen with the naked eye or binoculars.

Image Credit: Brendan Alexander

Nov. 10, 2011

Location:

Killygordon, Co. Donegal, Ireland

Details:

"A Colourful Pair Perhaps the highlight of the month for casual observers will be provided by the red planet. Mars is putting on a pre-dawn show along with Regulus, the brightest star in the constellation of Leo the Lion. The pair rise in the east and will be at their highest in the south before Sunrise. Regulus is a distinctive blue-white colour, while the planet Mars sports a striking red hue. This coming together gives stargazers an opportunity to compare and contrast the stunning colours these two heavenly bodies display. The colour difference was obvious to the naked eye and binoculars will further enhance my views of the pair. Mars approached Regulus from the west at the start of the month and makes its closest approach to the tomorrow morning (11November). However, in case cloud interfered, I grab the shot this morning as the pair look equally stunning from the 8th to the 14th of November."

Enjoy!

PH

Storm slides east (again); Sky show this week!

Posted at 3:37 PM on November 8, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter 2011-12, Winter storms

Our ever shifting 1st winter storm of 2011 in the Upper Midwest is shifting east again.

Each passing model run over the past 24 hours has shifted the storm further to the east. The result has been a changing landscape of NWS watches and advisories as they try to keep pace with the system.

Low pressure now expected to track east of Chicago. This is too far east for metro snow.

Here's the latest thinking from the La Crosse NWS.

The latest eastward shift would keep heavy snow mostly east of Winona and Rochester and Eau Claire. 1" to 2" still may fall in these areas.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

Unfortunately for much of parched Minnesota this will mean little if any measureable rain or snow. In fact, I don't expect a drop of rain or a flake of snow in the Twin Cities from this system.

Sky Show this week:

As skies begin to clear behind the system in much of Minnesota, look for a great sky show in the east in the evening and high in the sky later at night this week.

As the moon waxes toward full Thursday, it will snuggle up near bright Jupiter in the eastern evening sky.

Enjoy the show!

PH

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Finally October! Cool but nice... with roses. Indian Summer ahead?

Posted at 12:22 AM on October 14, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy

It's all monlight & roses at the Huttner Weather Lab this week. And it finally feels like Ocotber!

Our evening sky show continues Friday night.

Looking east after sunset Friday after 8 pm, you'll see the now just past full "Hunter's Moon" rising in the east. (Moonrise 7:35pm at MSP) To the right you'll see the very bright Jupiter close by.

Photo Credit: Shahrin Ahmad
Oct. 13, 2011
Sri Damansara, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Details:
It's always fascinating to compare the size of the objects in the universe. My finger can easily cover the moon, and jupiter, as well as the nearby mosque's minaret. But it is still simply insignificant if we realize the true size of the celestial objects! Photo taken with Canon 550D. ISO200, 4s exposure.

The two brightest objects in the sky will form a delightful duet tonight into Friday morning.

Image couresy spaceweather.com

If you have a telescope or very powerful binoculars, you may be able to see some of Jupiter's moons, and the giant red spot (storm) will be facing earthward!

The sky show will persist the next two nights, even as the moon slides further to the left of Jupiter.

The bright Hunter's Moon passes Jupiter in the east after dark. Mira is the crook in the purple line just below the S in CETUS. The blue 10° scale is about the width of your fist held at arm's length.-Sky & Telescope diagram

As you enjoy the moonight check out some of the great Native American moon names!

Drought expands:

Yep, even with wednesday's .50" rain it's still dry at the weather lab in the southwest metro. It fits with this week's updated U.S. Drought Monitor, whch now places the southwest metro and much of southern Minnesota in "severe drought."

Indian Summer ahead?

Next week looks cool with mostly 50s. But there are signs temps may run as much as 5-10+ degrees above average the week after that. That would mean highs in the 60s to maybe 70 in southern Minnesota. We may still see a bout of Indian Summer in late October!

October roses at the weather lab:

The Weather Lab roses are enjoying the late season warm surge. I talked about them with Kerri Miller & Cathy Wurzer on Morning Edition Thursday.

Check out the blooms which hang over a carpet of fallen colored leaves.

Enjoy!

PH

(Click images to enalrge)

June opens with AM sky show, active hurricane season?

Posted at 4:07 PM on May 31, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Hurricanes

Can you believe it's June already?

June begins at midnight Wednesday, and signs of the season have arrived at the weather lab.

I saw and heard the first June Bugs sluggishly buzzing around the weather lab after dark Monday evening.

June is our brightest month in terms of daylight in Minnesota.

Daylight calculator shows 15.2 hours of daylight on June 1st for the Twin Cities.

You can calculate daylight for any location here.

Trademark long evening daylight peaks the last week of June, when sunset times are as late as 9:03pm in the metro, 9:14pm in the Brainerd Lakes area and 9:35 in Hallock in the northwest corner of Minnesota!

If you figure in "Civil Twilight" there is light in the sky as late as 10:17pm on clear evenings in the northwest corner of Minnesota in late June.

Sunrise sunset and "civil twilight" for Hallock, Minnesota in June.

You could call places like Roseau and Hallock land of the 10pm sun!

You can find sunrise & sunset times anywhere in Minnesota with this nifty sunrise & sunset calendar.

Morning Sky Show:

If you're an early riser there is still a nice grouping of planets in the sky before sunrise in the east.

Look to the east about 30-45 minutes before sunrise and you'll see Jupiter. Mars, Venus and Mercury shining brightly low on the eastern horizon.

Bright planets dot the pre-dawn horizon sky on June 1st.
(Image courtesy UA Flandrau Science Center)

The sky show is a remnant of the amazing show that lasted all month long in May. With so many cloudy mornings in May you might have missed out, but Wednesday morning looks clear in southern Minnesota at least.

Here's a description of the show as it unfolded in May from NASA.

Lightning strikes Willmar NOAA weather radio transmitter:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
934 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE WILMAR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TOWER IN NEW LONDON MN IS NOT
TRANSMITTING.

A LOCAL CITIZEN ALERTED THE NWS OF POSSIBLE PROBLEMS EARLIER THIS
EVENING. AFTER CONFIRMATION THAT INFORMATION WAS BEING SENT TO
THE RADIO...BUT WAS NOT DISTRIBUTED FROM THE TRANSMITTER...MN DOT
SENT A TECHNICIAN TO THE SITE TOO EVALUATE THE PROBLEM. THE
TECHNICIAN SUSPECTED THAT THE TOWER WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AS
SEVERAL COMPONENTS HAVE MELTED. PARTS WILL BE ORDERED ON TUESDAY
BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE TRANSMITTER TO BE FIXED.

THOSE INDIVIDUALS THAT USE THE WILMAR TRANSMITTER AS THEIR PRIMARY
TRANSMITTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO TRY THE ST CLOUD TRANSMITTER...THE
OLIVIA TRANSMITTER OR THE KENSINGTON TRANSMITTER AS ALTERNATES TO
RECEIVE WEATHER AND WARNING INFORMATION. ANOTHER OPTION IS TO
REFER TO THE NWS TWIN CITIES WEB PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MPX

Hurricane season opens June 1st!

After a winter packed with a parade of winter storms and the most tornadic spring since the 1950's you'd think the USA would be due for a break in extreme weather. Think again.

June 1st mark the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season. (June 1- November 30th)

Various forecast this year call for an above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin this year.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters already sees potential tropical trouble brewing in the Caribbean Sea.

Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

"The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week."

The GFS model is hinting at a potential tropical system near Florida in about 10 days.

The USA got really lucky with no hurricane landfalls during an active Atlantic season in 2010. My hunch is that's not going to happen again this year, and we'll likely see some hurricanes and possible a major hurricane strike the U.S. Coastline this year.

Stay tuned!

PH

Evening weather update: Clouds & spotty showers

Posted at 8:44 AM on May 18, 2011 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Springtime

Update 5:30pm:

As expected this morning clouds and a few spotty showers are "retrograding" back toward Minnesota form the east.

Twin Cities radar loop shows spotty elevated showers or "virga" pushing west.

GOES 1km visible satellite image shows clouds spreading into the metro and eastern Minnesota. "Streamlines" show surface wind direction.

Expect clouds and a few isolated spotty showers this evening. It will still be nice for most outdoor activities this evening, but the character of our weather has changed through tonight.

PH

*****

Welcome to day #4 of our picture perfect Minnesota weather, for now.

A ridge of high pressure has been protecting Minnesota from two storms this week. Under the ridge, dry sunny weather has blessed cloud weary Minnesotans. To the west, a storm in the Rockies spins away. To the east, an Ohio Valley storm is spinning showers as close as Madison.

Eastern system "retrogrades" westward:

The upper air pattern is "stuck" over North America this week. The eastern system which is spinning in the Ohio Valley is actually moving back toward the west, or "retrograding" toward Minnesota today.

The system is spinning a band of showers westward through Wisconsin. The showery band runs from Green Bay to Madison this morning, and it's moving back west toward Minnesota. One model, the NAM suggests it could reach far enough west to spread clouds and a few showers into eastern Minnesota including the Twin Cities by this evening.

Radar and satellite trends seem to support this notion. It looks like our "picture perfect" weather may briefly take a turn for the cloudier and wetter this evening.

"Omega Block" breaking down:

I talked earlier this week about the "Omega Block" upper air pattern that's brining nice weather to Minnesota this week. The ridge of sunny, milder weather is starting to break down today. The eastern & western storms will close the gap, and it looks like the western system will finally move in by Friday & Saturday bringing a few rounds of showers & T-Storms.

Models painting rain chances this weekend.

Unlike last weekend (why do storms always seem to fall on our weekends?) this system will feel a bit more summery. Temperatures should be milder and reach into the 70s between showers & T-Storm bouts this weekend.

Overall rainfall totals may fall in the .50" to 1" range for many locations this weekend.

It appears the bulk of the rain may favor Friday night and Saturday morning now...but timing of these systems is often not possible 2-3 days out.

Bottom line? Expect a few rounds of scattered showers & T-Storms this weekend, with some dry hours in between.

Here's my forecast breakdown through the weekend:

Today: Sunny start. High near 70. Clouds increase form the east late. Spotty showers possible this evening.

Thursday: Mostly sunny again. Mild High near 72.

Friday: Western storm pushes closer. Mixed sun & clouds. High near 72. Shower & T-Storm chances increase PM.

Saturday: Scattered showers & T-Storms. Muggy & milder in between storms. High near 74. Rainfall totals .50" to 1" in spots?

Sunday: Mixed sun & clouds with spotty storms. Several dry hours too. High near 74.

May sky show delights shuttle launch observers:

I posted recently about the ongoing sky show in the eastern sky during the month of May.

It seems conditions were perfect for viewing the show in the dawn sky as the Space Shuttle Endeavour prepared fro launch Monday.

"I witnessed the launch of Endeavour early Monday morning and was greeted by this scene when I arrived at NASA's VIP viewing site on Banana Creek," says photographer Tom Cocchiaro of the New Hampshire Astronomical Society. "It was as though the Gods were watching over Endeavour as it sat perched on the launch pad in the early twilight hours. Too cool for words."

You can check out more images from NASA at spaceweather.com.

Enjoy the beautiful start to today, but keep an eye to the east for late day clouds & possible showers.

PH

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Later sunsets, total eclipse & 4th snowiest start on record

Posted at 4:45 PM on December 17, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Snow

How about some good news for daylight starved and snow pummeled Minnesotans?

The sun set a minute later today than it did yestrday!

The sunset today in the Twin Cities is 4:33pm. Thursday it set at 4:32pm. By Christmas Day, the sun will set in the Twin Cities at 4:37pm. You'll begin noticing a little more daylight on clear evenings in the next few days.

But wait Mr. Huttner....how can that be? The winter solstice occurs next week on the 21st right?

Right.

But because the earth's orbit is an ellipse and not a circle, the earliest sunset time actually occurs a few days before the winter solstice. The trade off is, the latest sunrise time occurs a few days after the winter solstice...so sunrises don't start getting earlier until around January 5th

Me? I'm a sunset guy...so I'll celebrate the later sunsets now. It's my ray of hope and light that gets me though the dark, cold and snowy winter season. Just knowing and sensing the (even slightly perceptible) longer daylight in the evening is a big boost for my spirits.

Enjoy the added daylight on your evening commute, walk or other outdoor adventure the next two weeks, and beyond!

4th snowiest start to winter on record:

A whopping 34" of fresh snow has piled up at MSP Airport since the snow began to fly this fall/winter. That's the 4th snowiest start to winter (though December 15th) and the snowiest start in 19 years since the infamous Halloween Mega Storm Year of 1991.

Here's the narrative from Twin Cities NWS.

"The start to this cool season has been snowy across the area, especially compared to recent years. With 34.0 inches at MSP Airport through the first half of December, it is the snowiest start of winter for the Twin Cities since 1991. Some portions of the Twin Cities, particularly the west and south have had even more snow. Here at the NWS Office in Chanhassen, 40.9 inches have been observed so far. The storm tracks of systems since the first appreciable snow on the 13th have favored in particular central and southern Minnesota. At the same time, St. Cloud has seen 11.7 inches. Eau Claire broke a record on December 11th, recording 22.0 inches of snow in one calendar day. Eau Claire is now up to an impressive 28.8 inches of snow for the season."

Signs of a thaw next week?

The latest models are hinting at the potential for snow next Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned...it's too early to make a call yet.

It also looks like a southerly flow may break the cold snap. Temperatures may push 30s by the middle of next week...and that could be a welcome change.

Full lunar eclpise Monday night (Tuesday morning)

A rare treat coincides with the winter solstice this year. A total lunar eclpise will be visible in Minnesota (pending clear skies) Between 12:33 am & 4:01 am. Totality will peak at 2:17am CST.

The last time a full lunar eclipse coincided with the winter solstice was in AD 1554. NASA forecasts that at 1:33 a.m. ET on Tuesday, "Earth's shadow will appear as a dark red bite at the edge of the lunar disk."

Enjoy a quiet weekend for a change!

PH

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2012: Could solar "Katrina" take down the grid?

Posted at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Space weather

File this one under low probability high impact events. But if it happens, it could be the solar equivalent of the perfect storm.

Scientists at NASA and elsewhere are increasingly concerned about the potential for a massive solar "mega-storm" that could disrupt power grids in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Solar cycle 24 is headed for a peak sometime in 2011 or 2012, and some forecasters believe there is historical precedent for gigantic coronal mass (CME) ejections that could take down power grids here on earth.

NASA is getting ready.

"Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers."

Another massive solar flare in 1989 provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Quebec generating station in Canada, blacking out most of the province and plunging 6 million people into darkness for 9 hours.

If it happened in the past we know it can happen again in the future. The question this time is, what will happen if such an extreme event strikes today's aging North American power grid?

A modern solar flare recorded Dec. 5, 2006, by the X-ray Imager onboard NOAA's GOES-13 satellite. The flare was so intense, it actually damaged the instrument that took the picture. Researchers believe Carrington's flare was much more energetic than this one.

Not taking any chances.

The so called "Solar Shield" project is designed to issue warnings to electric utilities when massive solar storms are racing earthward.

"Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun. Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the cloud from as many as three points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it will arrive."

While the CME is crossing the sun-Earth divide, a trip that typically takes 24 to 48 hours, the Solar Shield team prepares to calculate ground currents. "We work at Goddard's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)," says Pulkkinen. The CCMC is a place where leading researchers from around the world have gathered their best physics-based computer programs for modeling space weather events. The crucial moment comes about 30 minutes before impact when the cloud sweeps past ACE, a spacecraft stationed 1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Sensors onboard ACE make in situ measurements of the CME's speed, density, and magnetic field. These data are transmitted to Earth and the waiting Solar Shield team.

No one knows for sure if the dreaded "kill shot" could be unleashed in 2012. But the sun will be watched closely for the potential of a rare but devastating solar storm that could drastically change life here on earth for a period of days, weeks or longer.

PH

Forecast: Roller coaster temps

Posted at 8:46 AM on November 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Forecast models

Get ready for a temperature roller coaster ride the next few days.

While we were busy election watching, a cool front slipped through Minnesota overnight. You'll notice a decidedly cooler breeze by late today and tonight in Minnesota.

Temperatures will hang in the 40s for highs on Thursday, and then begin to recover into the 50s this weekend and maybe push 60 by Sunday in southern Minnesota. This looks to be the best (and last?) weekend to get those last few leaves up, so take advantage of the relatively nice weather!

Forecast models & rapid changes:

Watching the forecast models this year is a little like watching election polls. They can turn on a dime, and there is little consistency from day to day.

Often models will advertise big temperature swings in November, only to flip flop on the trend a day later. There is often little "run-to run" consistency this time of year.

The movement and evolution of weather systems speeds up dramatically in late fall and winter. (Can you say "Octobomb?") Numerical forecast models often have a difficult time keeping up with rapid changes. This means forecast accuracy can fall quickly as you move out in time these days.

Meteorologists definitely earn their keep as we head into winter. It is important this time of year to beware "model advertised" of big radical temperature shifts, and to keep an eye out for phantom snow storms that can pop up seemingly out of nowhere this time of year in the Upper Midwest.

Snow cover lagging up north:

We don't see our 1st inch of snowfall in the metro on average until November 18th, but overall North American snow cover is relatively thin "upstream" in northwest Canada. This will take some of the punch out of southbound cold fronts until snow cover fills in later in the season.

The hemispheric jet stream pattern has locked up a cold pool of air over the North Pacific. This usually means milder than average air in the northern USA, and this has been the case so far this fall.

There are signs colder air may begin to filter south later next week. Stay tuned.

Sky show:

The auroras are back over Norway these days. Check out the amazing images from spaceweather.com.

PH

Sky Show: Jupiter & Moon delight this week

Posted at 4:17 PM on October 18, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy

There's a treat in the southeast sky after sunset this week. Bright Jupiter and the waxing Hunter's moon will dazzle sky watchers. The two heavenly bodies will draw closest Tuesday evening, with just 6 degrees of separation. (No word yet on whether Kevin Bacon will also appear.)

Clear to partly cloudy skies and a dry crisp October air mass should make for excellent viewing conditions this week. For best viewing, look southeast after sunset, and then watch Jupiter and the Moon cross the southern sky all night long.

Jupiter and the waxing Hunter's Moon will approach Tuesday evening.
(Click for bigger image. Image courtesy University of Arizona Flandrau Science Center)

Jupiter was in "opposition" to the sun in late September. It was also closer to Earth than anytime since 1963, making it as bright as many of us have seen in our lifetimes.

The Hunter's Moon will be full on Friday at 8:37pm.

The two objects will put on a dazzling display all week long. Bring the kids out and check it out this week.

PH

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Aurora Watch

Posted at 8:50 AM on August 3, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy, Heat, Hurricanes

Late night star gazers may get a rare treat tonight.

A solar flare and significant coronal mass ejection (CME) is sending a burst of solar energy toward earth. The interaction with the earth's magnetosphere may produce auroras in the coming nights at high latitudes.

It is possible that auroras may be visible as far south as Minnesota. Keep an eye on the northern sky this week.

Welcome to the jungle.

Temperatures and humidity today will make it feel like the Amazon Jungle today in Minnesota. Temperatures will soar this afternoon to 90 degrees in much of southern Minnesota. Combine that reading with oppressive dew points in the 70s and you get heat indices (feels like) temperatures of 100.

Take it easy in the heat today; it can sneak up on you.

Steamy July:

Minnesota has been fortunate so far this summer. A nasty heat wave has been persistent in the central and southern USA with temperatures frequently topping 100.

Still, July made a mark in Minnesota. The average monthly temperature was 76.3 degrees. That's 3.1 degrees above average for the month, and a full 6.3 degrees warmer than last July!

July also marks the 5th straight month of above average temps in Minnesota.

Rainfall at Twin Cities Airport was 3.03" in July. That's an inch beow average. But just to show all weather (and especially rainfall) is local, Eau Claire got doused with 7.66" of rain last month. That marks the 4th wettest July on Record for Eau Claire.

Tropical Storm Colin:

We have the 3rd named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Colin has 40 mph winds, and is still about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Various forecast models take Colin to a point southeast of the Carolina Coast in about 5 days. It's too early to tell if Colin will become a threat to the eastern U.S.

PH

Sky Show: Space Station and noctilucent clouds

Posted at 5:15 PM on June 29, 2010 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy

Get ready for some great sky watching this week.

Dry high pressure means crystal clear skies, and some interesting sights in the heavens above.

The International Space Station (ISS) will be very bright this week. If you look west after sunset, you will see a very bright object still illuminated in sunlight. This is the space station as it flys by. Here are the times and locations. (Data assumes viewers is in Minneapolis)

Tuesday: Look west from 09:16:46 pm to 09:17:52pm. Elevation above horizon=74° Brightness -3.9 (very bright)

Wednesday: Look west from 09:41:02 pm 09:43:15pm. Elevation above horizon = 33° Brightness -2.5 (very bright)

You can find times for your specific location here.

Noctilucent clouds:

Electric blue clouds viewed from the ISS. Photo credit: Don Pettit and NASA TV.

Noctilucent or "night shining" clouds are in season. These sometimes wildly colored clouds are visible now and then on summer nights high in the atmosphere after sunset or before sunrise. The clouds occur in a layer of the atmosphere called the mesosphere between 50 and 85 km high. Temperatures around -125 degrees C allow tiny ice crystals the size of cigarette smoke to catch the sun's rays after they have set at the observer's location. Sunlight still illuminates these high altitude clouds after the sun has gone below the observer's horizon.

More on these cool looking clouds here.

Enjoy!

PH

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Brighter Days

Posted at 8:25 PM on June 1, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Daylight

Call it Minnesota's version of the midnight sun.

Path of the Midnight Sun over the course of 3 hours, South Cape, Spitsbergen, Norway.

The next 6 weeks feature the longest daylight of the year in Minnesota. The summer solstice is roughly 3 weeks away, on June 21st. That means the sun is close to its highest point in the sky, and the farthest north on its annual trek into the northern hemisphere sky.

At precisely 6:28 am CDT on June 21st, the sun will be directly overhead at 23.5 degrees north latitude. In Minnesota, the Twin Cities lies at about 45 degrees north. That means the sun will be at 68.5 degrees above the horizon on June 21st at solar noon. That's the highest point in the sky during the year.

Another interesting aspect of the sun this time of year in Minnesota is that the sun rises and sets north of due east and west. This is why the sunlight falls on the NORTH side of your home in June in the morning and evening. It's uplifting to see windows and other areas that do not get direct sun most of the year basking in sunlight.

The higher sun angles are accompanied by the longest daylight. The week of June 21st features about 15 hours and 36 minutes of daylight, and less than 9 hours of darkness. The sun sets in the central Twin Cities as late as 9:03 pm from June 20th until July 3rd.

June 26 Deephaven, MN

Twi: 4:51am
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 9:04pm
Twi: 9:41pm
Moonrise: 9:28pm
Moonset: 5:29am
Full Moon: 5:31am

Even more remarkable, the sunset in Hallock in northwest corner of Minnesota is as late as 9:35pm in late June! That means civil twilight provides considerable light in the sky until 10:17pm.

June 26 Hallock, MN

Twi: 4:43am
Sunrise: 5:25am
Sunset: 9:35pm
Twi: 10:17pm
Moonrise: 9:58pm
Moonset: 5:25am
Full Moon: 5:31am

Here is a great site for tracking sun and moon rise and set times for any location. It's a great planning tool for summer vacation trips.

Enjoy the long lazy daylight the next 6 weeks!

PH

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Sky Show: Aurora watch

Posted at 3:17 PM on May 27, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy

NASA SOHO spacecraft shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) streaming earthward.

These are great nights for sky watching in the Upper Midwest.

The full "flower" moon rises at 9:03 pm tonight in the Twin Cities. In addition to the full moon, you may want to keep an eye on the northern sky for possible aurora borealis, or northern lights the next few nights.

Here's the dish from spaceweather.com.

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on May 27th or 28th.

Our clear skies and low humidity should make for excellent viewing this weekend.

Enjoy!

PH