Posted at 2:38 PM on March 1, 2013
by Paul Huttner
Our 1st March weekend opens lamb like in Minnesota.
Is there really any science behind that old saying "In like a lamb...out like a lion?"
Dr. Mark Seeley ran the numbers and came up with a verification of about 14%. Weather folklore often has a grain of truth. In this case...just a few grains.
Our quiet weekend gives way to watching the next snowmaker drop south from Canada. The Alberta Clipper looks potent, but the track is still in question.
At this point, most of the reliable models steer the system toward southwest Minnesota with the metro on the edge. We'll have to watch the weekend forecast models to see how the track may change this weekend. If it comes east...the Twin Cities could be shoveling Monday.
Bill Endersen will have updates on the system later Sunday & Monday AM.
Watching for snow:
Somebody is going to get a pile of snow with our next weather system Monday.
Right now, the Euro and GFS tracks seems to favor a good 3" to 6"+ centered on Sioux Falls, with a rapid cut off in snow totals as you move toward the Twin Cities.
Twin Cities riding the edge of another system? Why should this one be easy?
I'm still tracking a thaw late next week.
Southerly winds will kick in by Thursday and temps should respond into the upper 30s and lower 40s in southern Minnesota.
Overall March still looks seasonable...and potentially wet.
The models do indicate that enough mild air will surge north from time to time to produce some rain...and enough lingering cold air to mix with some snow.
In other words, a good old fashioned Minnesota March?