Impending blizzard-like conditions, burst of snow, blast of wind and a smack of cold

Posted at 5:46 AM on March 17, 2013 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)

At daybreak on this St. Patrick's Day, temperatures were more typical of a morning in early January.

Check out these readings from 5 a.m. CDT:

CITY SKY/WX TMP
BAUDETTE MOCLDY -20
FLAG ISLAND PTCLDY -20
INTL FALLS MOCLDY -23
WASKISH PTCLDY -24
BIG FORK PTCLDY -24
LONGVILLE PTCLDY -18
CRANE LAKE MOCLDY -26
ORR MOCLDY -20
COOK MOCLDY -24

We are tracking the advance of a fast-moving weather system that promises to bring a burst of snow and strong winds to the upper Midwest.

IR satellite from NOAA showing colder cloud tops with system tracking through Montana early Sunday morning:

The National Weather Service has posted a variety of winter weather notices for later today, tonight and into Monday morning:

From the National Weather Service in Chanhassen regarding the shaded area covered by a blizzard watch:

THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY EVENING.

Weather conditions will deteriorate from west to east during Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow is expected to reach the Twin Cities around midnight.

NOAA's NCEP probabilities of snowfall of four or more inches ending at 7 a.m. CDT:

This image from the GFS model from the 1 a.m. run depicts the liquid precipitation expected from 1 a.m. CDT Monday to 7 a.m. CDT Monday. The bulk of the snow is likely to occur in eastern Minnesota during that time. This burst of snow may slow a bit in Wisconsin, where snowfall totals could approach six inches:

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Comments (1)

You guys really wet your pants predicting a warm up this past week. How did you get it so wrong, why are we seemingly stuck with winter, what's your (likely incorrect) estimation of when we'll start getting some real spring-like weather?

Posted by Luke | March 17, 2013 1:56 PM

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