Updraft: February 9, 2013 Archive

Winter storm begins to crank up; track the impact in the upper Midwest

Posted at 6:19 AM on February 9, 2013 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13

The National Weather Service has painted a large swath of the landscape from Wyoming to Wisconsin in winter storm watches and warnings. Explore the specifics of your location here.

Little has changed in the expectation for the heaviest snow accumulation to occur late tonight through Sunday from the eastern Dakotas to northeast Minnesota, where amounts may exceed 10 inches.

Probability of snow of 8 inches or more from 6 a.m. CST Sunday to 6 a.m. CST Monday.

NOAA's meteorologists suggest this model track as a consensus forecast, or a blend of the output from a variety of computer models.

The time stamps are in GMT. 00Z Monday translates to 6 p.m. CST Sunday.

Light snow is possible today, but the heaviest snowfall is expected after midnight tonight through Sunday evening.

The GFS model dumps a generous amount of liquid precipitation in close proximity to the Twin Cities on Sunday morning.

Six-hourly precipitation ending at noon CST Sunday. Yellow shaded area is more than a half inch of liquid. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

The temperature profile is critical to the precipitation type in the metro region of the Twin Cities. Milder air is forecast to nose into southeast Minnesota at the low levels on Sunday.

While surface temperatures may be close to 35 degrees with a wintry mix in Farmington, it could be 32 in Rogers with heavy snow falling.

Paul Huttner's forecast of the potential for a considerable gradient on the snow accumulation is on track. For now, the best forecast in east central Minnesota is for a wintry mix, with the heaviest snowfall in the northwest metro.

NWS forecast of Sunday's maximum temperatures.

You can track the precipitation on the Weatherunderground regional radar.

Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter storm.

Craig Edwards

(2 Comments)

Storm still on track, but not the fast track; near blizzard conditions Sunday night

Posted at 3:46 PM on February 9, 2013 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter 2012-13, Winter storms

The storm we've been anticipating since mid week emerged in eastern Colorado late this afternoon. Models have slowed down the northeast movement slightly, thus delaying the onset of significant precipitation until later tonight and Sunday morning.

The winter storm warning is highlighted in pink, with blizzard warning highlighted in orange:

Warnings are in effect for late tonight through Sunday night. Minneapolis and St. Paul are included in the warning. The Twin Cities metro area is teetering on the southern boundary of heavy snow, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate on Sunday through Monday morning.

A wintry mix, including sleet and freezing rain, is expected in the southeast corner of Minnesota and west central Wisconsin on Sunday.

For a detailed look at your local forecast explore the NWS website here. You'll see the expansive area covered in winter storm warnings.

This storm will blanket a large portion of the Midwest with generous precipitation.

Liquid precipitation totals from the snow and wintry mixture will be beneficial to the regions that have experienced a relatively dry autumn and winter season.

Two day precipitation total from tonight through Monday:

Source:NOAA/HPC.

Snow mixed with rain or freezing rain will develop in southwest and west central Minnesota tonight and spread east. The heaviest precipitation is likely to occur Sunday through Sunday evening.

Here is the ensemble track for the surface low center from NOAA's NCEP:

The most recent Rapid Update Cycle forecast model slows the track of the low moving through Nebraska and Iowa on Sunday. There is also evidence of a dry slot, or a pause in the precipitation for a time, on Sunday in south central Minnesota.

Strong northwest winds kick in behind the low as it moves into Wisconsin on Sunday night. Falling temperatures will make for biting wind chill readings on Monday.

Travel conditions are likely to be difficult on Sunday through early Monday morning. Please be prepared for very hazardous travel in open areas Sunday night due to reduced visibilities of blowing and drifting snow.

Craig Edwards

(1 Comments)

Heavy snowfall likely Sunday into Sunday evening; southeast Twin Cities metro could see lighter amounts

Posted at 9:17 PM on February 9, 2013 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Blizzard, Winter storms

Winter storm warnings continue through early Monday for a large portion of Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas and northwest Wisconsin.

Check out the local details for your area from the National Weather Service.

Snowfall totals from this storm system will range from 2 to 4 inches in the southeast metro from Farmington to Hastings, while the far west and northwest suburbs could will get 8 inches. And some areas could see double digit accumulations by Monday morning.

6 p.m. CST Saturday surface pressure pattern and temperatures from the RAP model:

Source:NOAA/COD

The low pressure has yet to tighten its circulation but precipitation was beginning to expand into southwest Minnesota. Screen capture 930 p.m. CST radar:

Source:Weatherunderground

As the low tracks through northern Iowa on Sunday a band of heavy snow, with perhaps some thunder, is likely to dump 6 to 12 inches from Alexandria through Brainerd to Duluth.

NAM output of six-hourly precipitation ending at 6 p.m. CST Sunday paints considerable liquid water equivalent of snow north of the Metro. Snow to water ratio of 10 to 1 would be on the order of 6 to 8 inches of snow. I expect that as much as 6 inches of snow could fall prior to noon from Alexandria to Little Falls.

Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

Accumulating snow will make for hazardous travel across much of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas on Sunday. Listen for updates before taking to the highway.

Strong northwest winds kick in on Sunday night and last into Monday morning. Blowing and drifting snow will reduce visibilities to below a quarter mile in rural areas of western and south central Minnesota.

Craig Edwards

(1 Comments)