Updraft: December 20, 2012 Archive

Blizzard rages south; Slick Metro AM rush south & east; Snowy coating to 3"+

Posted at 3:04 AM on December 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13

- Update 2:45am Thursday -

Steadier snow continues to favor the south and east metro overnight into early Thursday.

Expect slick roads in these areas for AM rush hour, with light snow also falling early this morning in parts of the western metro and in the downtown urban core.

Any untreated, unplowed roads are snow covered and slippery, especially in the southeast half of the metro where it has been snowing for several hours. MNDOT Trafic Cams comfirm falling snow and snow covered roads early Thursday morning.

MNDOT Traffic Cam Hwy 13 @ Yankee Doodle Rd

MNDOT Traffic Cam Highway 77 & 13

Here are some early snowfall totals so far.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 214 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...A FEW EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.00 DURAND WI 0210 AM
STILL SNOWING.
4.00 WANAMINGO MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.50 BLUE EARTH MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.00 OWATONNA MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 WASECA MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 FAIRMONT MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING.
3.00 1 S OWATONNA MN 1256 AM
STILL SNOWING.
2.50 RED WING MN 0200 AM
STILL SNOWING.
2.50 ALBERT LEA MN 0150 AM
STILL SNOWING
2.00 MANKATO MN 0200 AM
1.50 MANKATO MN 1221 AM
STILL SNOWING...KEYC.
0.20 5 SSE MINNEAPOLIS 1221 AM
STILL SNOWING AT MSP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
119 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

Madison, WI area storm report

3 INCHES OF SNOW IN PAST 2 HOURS. 4 INCH STORM TOTAL. BELTLINE IN MADISON CLOSED WESTBOUND DUE TO CRASH. MANY CRASHES AND SLIDE-OFFS IN MADISON AREA. THUNDERSNOW AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

-Update 9:25 pm-

Here are the latest model forecast snowfall outputs this evening for MSP Airport.

NAM (oz run) 1.9"
GFS (18z) run 3.6"

Sure sign of a potent winter storm? Thundersnow. Check out the numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes (black squares) in southern Iowa on the Des Moines radar loop Wednesday evening as moisture surges north.

Snowfall began around 8:45pm in the metro with snow at several reporting sites.

-Initial post 5:22pm Wednesday-

Severe Winter Storm still on track for Iowa, SE Minnesota & Wisconsin

"Life Threatening Impacts" expected according to La Crosse NWS

Edging north - storm track continues trend to edge snow slightly north

Warnings expanded north reflect track changes

Blizzard Warnings now include Albert Lea, Rochester, Owatonna & Winona

Winter Storm Warnings now include Zumbrota & Red Wing

Winter Weather Advisories now include south & east metro

Thursday AM rush hour - metro snow likely - heaviest in southeast metro tapering as you move into far northwest metro along I-94

Growing metro snow totals? Wednesday PM GFS delivers .35" liquid - that could be "several" plowable inches if it verifies

**If you are planning any travel south along I-35 into southern Minnesota and Iowa or east along I-94 into central & southern Wisconsin through Thursday you may want to reconsider or rearrange your plans. Expect blizzard conditions with near zero visibility winds to over 40 mph, severe blowing and drifting snow, falling temperatures and possible road closures.***

Here it comes:

Our well advertised major winter storm is moving into the Upper Midwest.

Snowfall is spreading east & north will increase in coverage and intensity tonight through Thursday morning.

Here are the latest trends as the storm moves in:

Warnings expand north:

The trends we discussed Tuesday for edging the snow shield slightly north appear to be holding.

Blizzard Warnings have been expanded slightly north and now include most of southeast Minnesota. Expect 8" to 16" snowfall totals, winds gusting to ver 40 mph and 2 to 4 foot drifts in the blizzard warning areas.

The La Crosse NWS isn't pulling any punches with some apocalyptic wording.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...CHARLES CITY...NEW HAMPTON... ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...LA CROSSE 238 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON.

* 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM LA CROSSE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

* SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS....PARTICULARLY THURSDAY.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROAD CLOSURES AND LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE.

* THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL. THOSE TRAVELING OR COMMUTING WILL FACE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* EMERGENCY SERVICES AND RESCUES COULD BE HALTED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

Image: La Crosse NWS

Winter Storm Warnings for the tier of counties just north of that include Owatonna and Red Wing. Expect 4" to 8" snowfal totals and gusty winds in the warning areas.

Winter Weather Advisories now include the south & east metro. Expect 1" to 3"+ favoring the southeast metro with some slick roads for rush hour Thursday AM.

Metro Microcast:

The Twin Cities remains on the northern edge of snow from this storm. The slight northward shift by the GFS and Johnny Come Lately NAM and Euro models favors snow covering most of the metro early Thursday morning; just in time for AM rush. It still doesn't look like a major winter storm for the metro, but it doesn't take much to gum up the morning commute.

I expect a sharp cutoff and snowfall gradient from northwest to southeast across the metro Thursday morning. If the system comes in as currently advertised, snowfall totals should range from a coating to 1"+ in the northwest metro...to as much as 1" to 3"+ in the south & east metro.

Image: ISU

The best chance of 3"+? South metro through Dakota County and the cities of Lakeville, Farmington and Hastings in the southeast metro.

There's still one more major model cycle before the snow flies late tonight.

Stay tuned for updates.

PH

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(1 Comments)

Blizzard rages south & east; Better travel this weekend; Light snow Christmas Eve?

Posted at 8:47 AM on December 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13

Blizzard Warnings continue until midnight for southeast Minnesota, Iowa & Wisconsin

Next phase wind: Gust to over 40mph in Iowa & Wisconsin today

Snow gradually fades in east metro today

MNDOT Traffic Cam Hwy 52 @ Hwy 55 in east metro

Metro snowfall: Coating (N & W) to 2"(SE) snowfall totals so far

Southeast Minnesota: 4" to 7" snowfall totals so far

Iowa & Wisconsin: numerous snowfall reports between 7" and 13"+

Twin Cities NWS multimedia briefing on storm

Riding the edge of a blizzard:

The latest round of winter weather is still ongoing today in the Upper Midwest. Ground zero today? Southeast Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

13" of snow has already fallen along I-35 near Des Moines and a fresh foot is on the ground along I-94 near Osseo, Wisconsin.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 633 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

0600 AM SNOW 3 S POLK CITY M13.1 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL AS OF 6AM. STRONG WINDS HAVE STRIPPED THE
OVERALL SNOW DEPTH DOWN TO 11 INCHES.

...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
OSSEO, WI 11.2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
658 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

0614 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 SW MADISON, WI M8.9 INCH TRAINED SPOTTER

1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM CST.

Southeast Minnesota has some 4" to 7" totals already, with snow still falling.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 815 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS...

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
ROCHESTER AIRPORT 6.0 0700 AM

...WINONA COUNTY...
WINONA 4SW 7.0 0730 AM

...MOWER COUNTY...
GRAND MEADOW 7.0 0515 AM
AUSTIN 6.2 0730 AM

The storm has even knocked out some communications at the Des Moines NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 830 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE AT WEATHER OFFICE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING PHONE...INTERNET...AND WEATHER RADIO OUTAGES.
THERE IS NO ESTIMATE WHEN THESE COMMUNICATION ISSUES WILL
BE RESOLVED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THIS INCONVENIENCE.

First snow: Next wind

Snow will continue today in most of Wisconsin. The next phase of the storm features increasing winds, which will howl at over 40 mph in Iowa and southern Wisconsin as the storm deepens and moves east.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 836 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

0829 AM BLIZZARD OTTUMWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY 1/8 TO 1/4 DUE TO SNOW. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH

Blizzard conditions will make travel difficult to dangerous in much of Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin through tonight.

Improvng roads this weekend:

Roads will gradually improve Friday, and be in much better shape this weekend. High pressure should make for a stress free pre holiday road trip in most areas this weekend.

Next snow chance: Christmas Eve?

The medium-range forecast models are panting a chance for some (light?) snow on Christmas Eve.

Image: Norwegian Met Institute

White Christmas Tracker: In the bag for Upper Midwest

Today's storm has just about guaranteed a White Christmas for most of the Upper Midwest. In fact, this year could be pretty close to "climatology" as far as the southern extent of snowfall. A coating of white is likely to remain south of an Omaha-Des Moines-Chicago line by Christmas Day.

Here's a look at the climatological probability for a White Christmas from NOAA.

Safe travels!

PH

(3 Comments)

Blizzard turns tragic; Iowa fatalities; National Guard deployed; 18"+ near Madison, WI

Posted at 5:41 PM on December 20, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2012-13

Blizzard rages through Friday AM in parts of Iowa & Wisconsin

Fatal 25 car pileup on I-35 about 40 miles south of Mason City, Iowa

I-35 closed south of Albert Lea into Iowa

National Guard deployed in Des Moines to help scores of stranded motorists

13.8" snowfall at NWS office near Des, Moines Iowa

"Several feet high" drifts near Des Moines

100+ school districts closed Thursday across Iowa

12" snowfall total at Osseo, WI along I-94 east

18.5" snowfall totals near Madison, WI at Middleton

Near 50 mph winds gusts whipping snow around tonight

Blizzard Warnings remain in effect into Friday AM in Wisconsin & Illinois

Gradually improving road conditions Friday in the Upper Midwest.

Good travel conditions by this weekend

Image: Iowa State Patrol

Blizzard takes a toll:

The warnings were there, but the ferocity of the strongest blizzard in 2 years is taking it's toll in southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

As winds whipped snow into blinding squalls, a 25 vehicle pile up claimed lives south of Mason City along I-34. Numerous accidents forced the closure of I-35 south of Albert Lea.

KARE11 has details:

ROCHESTER, Minn. - Snow and wind have combined to force the closure of southbound lanes on Interstate 35 from Albert Lea to the Iowa border, according to the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota State Patrol.

The lanes were closed at 2 p.m. due to multiple accidents and per the request of the Iowa Department of Transportation. Motorists are advised not to travel until conditions improve and MnDOT and the Minnesota State Patrol open the road. No timetable for that decision has been set.

The 25 vehicle pile up near Dows south of Mason City killed 2 people according to KCCI-TV Des Moines.

Heavy snowfall totals:

The storm has dumped the more than a foot of snow as advertised and then some.

"Ground Blizzard" as wind rages:

Gusts ot near and over 50 mph have created near zero visibilities in some areas.

One of the dangerous elements in blizzards is the rapid reductions in visibility that can occur. 50 mph winds get dry powdery snow airborne in a hurry. Local topography can "funnels" the snow into blinding squalls that race across freeways. One second you're driving along at 50 mph in decent visibility, the next is a total white out...you can't see 5 feet in front of you.

That's why roads get closed and unfortunately, massive pileups happen.

The La Crosse NWS pleads with drivers not to travel.

Dangerous Winter Storm Continues - Winds Peaking!

Happening NOW...

...TRAVEL NOT ADVISED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

WINDS ARE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES HAVE REPORTED A NUMBER OF ROADS CLOSED. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS EVENING.

SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WAS CAUSING MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. EXPECT THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 6 PM...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH NIGHTFALL...VISIBILITY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AND THE DANGERS IN TRAVELING WILL BE GREATER.

Roads and travel: Periodic closures of area highways are occurring because of accidents. Winona county emergency management reports highways 14, 61, and 90 are all closing at times because of accidents. Many vehicles are having trouble getting up hills and trucks are jack-knifed. Cars are stranded in Grant County in southwest Wisconsin and highways 11 and 18 are now closed. Roads in general are becoming impassable. I-35 in north central Iowa has been closed (after one 25+ car pileup).

Heavy snowfall totals:

The Twin Cities got off lucky with this system. Snowfall totals ranged from a snowy coating here at the weather lab in the west metro...to 2" - 3" from Lakeville & Hastings to 3" at Red Wing on the SE fringes of the metro.

Minnetonka & west metro Coating
Burnsville, Apple Valley & Eagan 1"
Woodbury 1.3"
Lake Elmo 1.5"
Lakeville & Hastings 2"
Red Wing 3"

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
509 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...SNOW TOTALS RECEIVED SO FAR...

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 4 SE FOSTER WI EAU CLAIRE 0301 PM
7.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0915 AM
5.00 S OWATONNA MN STEELE 0907 AM
4.00 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0438 PM
2.50 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0415 PM
2.30 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0234 PM
2.00 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0125 PM
2.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1012 AM
1.50 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0655 AM
1.20 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0517 AM
RELAYED FROM WCCO
1.00 2 N APPLE VALLEY MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
1.00 3 SW EAGAN MN DAKOTA 0800 AM
1.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0716 AM

Heavier totals fell in southeast Minnesota.

Rochester 7"
Spring Valley 8"

Prolific totals over 1 foot came down in Iowa and Wisconsin

0345 PM HEAVY SNOW PORTAGE M14.0 INCH COLUMBIA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

14.0 INCHES STORM TOTAL.

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W MIDDLETON
M18.5 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

18.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 305 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL IOWA...

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
13.80 NWS OFFICE JOHNSTON IA POLK 1200 PM
13.40 1 N GRIMES IA POLK 0700 AM
13.00 MARSHALLTOWN IA MARSHALL 0700 AM
12.40 DES MOINES INT AIRPORT IA POLK 1200 PM
11.50 6 S MADRID IA DALLAS 0700 AM
11.50 WAUKEE IA DALLAS 0930 AM
11.00 5 ENE DES MOINES IA POLK 0700 AM
10.70 BOONE IA BOONE 0700 AM
10.00 ELDORA IA HARDIN 1200 PM
10.00 WATERLOO AIRPORT IA BLACK HAWK 1200 PM

Winds raged at 50+ across eastern Iowa.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 405 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...HIGHEST WINDS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...

...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...WIND...
3 W PLEASANT GROVE (DES MOINES IA) 1202 PM DEC 20 59 MPH
2 SSE JULIEN (DUBUQUE IA) (APRSWXNET) 317 PM DEC 20 56 MPH
DAVENPORT, IA (SCOTT IA) (748 FT)(ASOS) 303 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
MACOMB MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 335 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
INDEPENDENCE (BUCHANAN IA) (AWOS) 1015 AM DEC 20 54 MPH
2 NE FREEPORT (STEPHENSON IL) 315 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
KEWANEE MUNICIPAL (HENRY IL) 353 PM DEC 20 54 MPH
BURLINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT 1253 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
CEDAR RAPIDS MUNI ARPT (LINN IA) (ASOS) 252 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
WASHINGTON (WASHINGTON IA) (AWOS) 1155 AM DEC 20 53 MPH
FORT MADISON (LEE IA) (AWOS) 1255 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
FAIRFIELD (JEFFERSON IA) (740 FT)(AWOS) 115 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
1 NE DELTA (KEOKUK IA) (664 FT)(IADOT) 1220 PM DEC 20 53 MPH
QUAD CITY INTL (ROCK ISLAND IL) (ASOS) 310 PM DEC 20 52 MPH
MOUNT PLEASANT (HENRY IA) (AWOS) 1015 AM DEC 20 52 MPH
4 SE MAYSVILLE (SCOTT IA) (IADOT) 1241 PM DEC 20 52 MPH
CLINTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (CLINTON IA) 115 PM DEC 20 51 MPH
CEDAR RAPIDS (LINN IA) (773 FT)(IADOT) 120 PM DEC 20 51 MPH

The forecast will improve as we head into the weekend.

PH