Updraft: December 2, 2012 Archive

Sunday AM freezing fog, PM thaw; Growing snow chance next weekend?

Posted at 5:11 AM on December 2, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2012-13

Dense fog and some freezing fog on roadways will leave some icy spots early Sunday AM. Use caution travelling early Sunday AM.

Dense fog and freezing fog advisories are in effect until 9AM Sunday.

Skies should brighten Sunday PM as milder breezes push temps past the 50 degree mark in southern Minnesota. It will feel more like springtime than December in Iowa, where temps should warm into the 60s! Unreal.

Snow chance next weekend?

I've been watching the GFS model wrestle for a few days with what appears to be a chance of snow late next week or into the week of December 10th.

The latest GFS and European runs seem to be coming together around a possible snow system next weekend , most likely on Sunday that could include much of Minnesota and possibly the Twin Cities metro.

Image: NOAA GFS via College of DuPage

European Model suggests snow next Sunday: Image from Norwegian Met Institute

If the models are correct, there may be a chance for the first real significant snows of the season for much of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities next Sunday.

It's too early to be definitive, but I'll be keeping a close eye on this potential system the next few days. This one could make snow lovers happy, and dramatically increase the chances for a White Christmas.

PH

"December Thaw" to open the month this weekend

40s this weekend in most of Minnesota

Near 50 possible in southern Minnesota & the south metro this weekend - don't be shocked if your backyard thermometer says 50F Satuurday PM

Widespread 50s by Monday

32F average high temp in the metro this weekend

+15 to +20 degrees vs. average to open December

California storm rages with more than a foot of rain

79 mph wind gusts in Independence, California Friday

80 mph gust at Mount Rose, Nevada

December "Lite"

Welcome to December in Minnesota.

It might be December in Minnesota if you see;

55 degrees - temps warm enough for one last round of golf

Sunshine and temps in the 40s

"Domebuster" blizzards packing 10" to 23" of snow

Dangerously bitter cold with temps of -20F

December 2012 starts off on an unseasonably mild note.

The big western storm has created a southerly wind flow that's pumping mild air northward into the Upper Midwest.

Epic California storm rages on:

The huge California early season winter storm continues to rage this weekend.

NOAA's integrated water vapor loop shows the continued moisture plumes....driven by the "Atmospheric River" know as the "Pineapple Express." The system will continue to spray California like an unattended fire hose this weekend.

Check out some of the verbiage and rainfall totals from NWS.

AT 1200 PM PST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB...28.64 INCHES...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN NEVADA... AND WESTERN WASHINGTON.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES AND SIERRAS... THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS SNOW.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1200 PM PST FRI NOV 30...

...CALIFORNIA...
PETROLIA 10.09
CAZADERO 9.11
ST. HELENA 8.82
BRIDGEVILLE 8.36
CRESCENT CITY 7.25
VENADO 7.12
MC CLOUD 7.07
PINECREST 6.86
WHISPERING PINES 6.32
ORICK 5.92
TRINITY CENTER 5.16
GASQUET 5.00

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...CALIFORNIA...
INDEPENDENCE 5 NW 79
SANDBERG 75
REDDING 71
HIGH GLADE LOOKOUT 67
MT. DIABLO RAWS 67
BLUE CANYON 66
DUNCAN PEAK RAWS 64
SADDLEBACK RAWS 63
REDDING 61
CRESCENT MILLS 60
JANESVILLE 60
OXNARD AIRPORT 57
MONTAGUE/SISKIYOU CO. ARPT 53
HALF MOON BAY 42

...NEVADA...
MOUNT ROSE SKI AREA 4 NE 80
CARSON CITY 72
RENO 60
RENO/CANNON INTL ARPT 57
GARDNERVILLE 54

The storm will continue to come in waves into early next week. Here are some projected rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometerological Prediction Center. (HPC)

Image: NOAA/HPC

Snow levels with this system are pretty high...above 8,500 feet in some areas.

Some snow is piling up at higher elevations. Here's the Diamond Peak Snowflake Lodge webcam show Friday PM.

One aspect of the heavy rains is so called "debris flows" which can come crashing down "burn scarred" mountainsides after heavy rainfall events.

PH

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