Posted at 8:51 AM on November 14, 2012
by Paul Huttner
3rd tornado confirmed in Saturday night outbreak
50F likely in the metro this afternoon
40s likely Thursday & Friday
50s return this weekend
50s looking more likely Thanksgiving Day?
Temps +5 to +10 degrees for the next week
42 degrees average high at MSP for November 14th
-24F at Dawson in Canada's Yukon Territory last night
No signs bitter Arctic air is coming south through Thanksgiving
Easing into the Winter of 2012-'13?
So far so good.
Monday's brief but attention getting wintery blast appears to be the only sign that late November is right around the corner.
Southerly winds will blow again today, and ample sunshine should help boost temps to the 50 degree mark in southern Minnesota and the metro today.
A weak cool front will drop temps a few degrees Thursday & Friday, but the southerly wind regime takes over again this weekend...and 50s will return.
Lack of snow cover adds degrees:
Monday's snow has melted over most of Minnesota. The bare ground is now free to convert incoming solar energy into heating the air near the ground...instead of using it to melt snow.
Bare ground this time of year can add +5 to +10 degrees to our daily temperatures vs. snow covered ground.
The latest snow cover analyses over North America shows extensive snow cover north & west of Minnesota...and bare ground to the south. Any southerly winds will travel over bare ground into Minnesota, magnifying the warming a few degrees.
There is plenty of cold air in northwest Canada over the early snow pack. -24 in Dawson, Yukon Territory is nothing to sneeze at in mid-November. So far the early winter pattern favors keeping that air locked up in northwest Canada...for now.
50s return this weekend, mild Thanksgiving?
Looking into next week it appears our mild southerly breezes will continue.
50s should return this weekend...and last into Thanksgiving Day and possibly Black Friday.
The GFS and Euro are in agreement now that mild air in the 50s will push into southern Minnesota as we approach Thanksgiving Day. If the warm front moves far enough north....I would not be shocked to see 60+ degree temps in southern Minnesota next week...and possibly on Thanksgiving Day.
A low pressure system is still winding up by next Saturday & Sunday and could deliver much needed rainfall...and maybe some snow on the back side as it pushes east by next Sunday.
Bottom line? Thanksgiving and Black Friday look mild right now, but the weather may be more changeable (wetter & colder) by Saturday & Sunday of the holiday weekend.
Colder air may begin to spill south after that.
2012: 2nd highest number of "billion dollar weather disasters on record
With 11 "billion dollar weather disasters" so far in 2012, it appears this year will go down as the 2nd "most destructive" year on record. The massive drought and Hurricane Sandy ($50 billion +) are the year's 2 most costly weather disasters.
Climate Central's Andrew Fredman has details.
With about six weeks remaining in the year, there have already been 11 natural disasters that have cost $1 billion or more in damage, bringing 2012 to second place on the list of top billion-dollar disaster years. The current record-holder is 2011, when there were 14 billion-dollar disasters. The widespread and intense drought -- which as of Nov. 6 still covered at least 60 percent of the lower 48 states -- and Hurricane Sandy are expected to go down in history as two of the most costly weather-related disasters since 1980.