Posted at 6:23 PM on November 10, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Flashing & splashing scattered T-Storms Saturday night!
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Slight risk for a (November!) severe storm just SW of the metro according to NOAA's SPC
69F record high at MSP Saturday
Instant Indian Summer: 70s in southern Minnesota Saturday
.26" NAM precip total for MSP Airport this weekend (mostly late Saturday night)
1"-3" snowfall possible in far northwest Minnesota by Sunday
6"+ in northern North Dakota to Winnipeg, Manitoba
"Warm sector" Mild with 60s to 70s in southern Minnesota Saturday
30 degree temp crash From 60s Saturday to 30s in the metro by Monday AM
Mild to Wild: Balmy Saturday gives way to cold & blustery Sunday
One last golf day? Did I get the last leaves up? Stock the wood pile?
Saturday will be the best shot at 60s from the metro south. A grey sky may spit some drizzle at times in the AM, but peeks of sun are possible late in the day as the metro and southern Minnesota work deeper into the warm sector of an advancing low in western Minnesota.
By Saturday night, upper level energy and the advancing low will fuel a growing area of rain showers over most of Minnesota. It will be cold enough for snow in the far NW reaches of our state.
Winter weather advisories are up for the northwest, and winter storm warnings fly for North Dakota.
Right now I see the low tracking far enough west that only northwest Minnesota will see any real accumulating snowfall, mostly in the 1" to 3" range. Heavier snow of 6"+ is likely in central and northern North Dakota to Winnipeg.
The metro will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A few wet snowflakes may ride the cold air in Sunday AM, but with warm ground and short duration I don't expect any metro accumulations.
Looking ahead: Mild late November bias?
Sunday's mid-November chill will linger into early next week.
Milder air and temps close to 50 should return by late next week.
The medium range models favor milder air into Thanksgiving week. It's early, but the GFS is hinting at another strong Nor'easter in hurricane ravaged areas of New Jersey and New York by Thanksgiving. Just what those poor people needed.
If that general pattern evolves, a warmer southwest wind flow will return to the upper Midwest. That could mean milder than average temps in the 50s into Thanksgiving weekend. But as I said...it's early.
No snow in sight: Snowless November ahead?
Weather geeks like me are always looking ahead as we move through November for signs of a pattern that could produce snow. Looking ahead right now the next 2 weeks, I don't see any significant snow systems in our future.
The latest set of 30-year averages (1981-2010) shows 5.1" as average November snowfall in the metro. Right now I think we may have a tough time getting there.
That said, the upper air pattern can change quickly this time of year, so stay tuned.