Posted at 8:48 AM on November 27, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Minnesota Weather Headlines:
Shot of snow favoring Duluth -Two Harbors & North Shore today
1" to 3" possible from Duluth north by later PM
2.6" snowfall at Duluth today Latest Duluth area snowfall reports
Slick roads in Duluth & along Highway 61 today
Weather Window for Duluth
(Use green slider to move to forecast hour, click on lower right for full screen window)
Twin Cities milder today southerly wind returns
30s return this afternoon
Tale of Two Forecasts: North vs. South today
Minnesota will see a variety of weather today.
In the north, an upper air wave and surface front is triggering some snow from Ely to the Iron Range through Duluth and the North Shore communities.
Most areas could pick up an inch or so, but some locations may see 1" to 3" as bands of "higher reflectivity" (moderate snow) move through on radar.
Here's the live webcam at the Lake Superior Maritime Museum to track the snowfall today.
Twin Cities: A touch milder
Southerly winds and sunshine are the rule today in southern Minnesota.
Bare ground south of the Twin Cities should warm under today's sunshine. Look for 30s to return this afternoon.
Wednesday's weak cool front will be a "speed bump" in a warming trend this week. Temps will resume their upward trend later this week.
Tracking the weekend thaw: December goes missing
Our well advertised weekend thaw is on track to open December on a mild note. The European model is forecasting a 6 day "thaw" starting Saturday to open the month of December.
Western "Heat Pump" storm moves in:
NOAA's NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) shows a big storm in the North Pacific moving into the Pacific Northwest by Friday.
As the system moves inland, it will act as a kind of "heat pump"... turning winds into the south across the Upper Midwest.
Unseasonably mild air will again spill north into the Upper Midwest by this weekend.
The latest GFS & Euro model runs are still advertising temperatures in the upper 40s this weekend, peaking Monday...probably in the 50s.
That's about +15 to +20 degrees vs. average for early December.
Temps should cool a bit next week, but are still likely to trend above average through the first week of December.
Right now I still don't see any big snow in sight for southern Minnesota. The GFS is hinting at a possible snow system along about December 10th or 11th, followed by much colder weather, but that's way too far out to be credible at this point.
At least there's hope!
Twin Cities "Weather Window"
(Use green slider button for forecast hour, click lower right for full screen)
2.6" snowfall Tuesday in Duluth - NWS totals here
39F High temp at MSP Airport Tuesday at 3:13pm CST
5 days string of continuous sub-freezing temps in the metro since Thanksgiving PM
"Seasonable" temps through Friday (30s for highs)
December Thaw kicks in this weekend with 40s likely
50s possible in metro by Monday?
Mr. Cuomo said the recent storm would cost New York State nearly $42 billion, and he huddled in his Midtown office with the state's Congressional delegation, as well as Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and the Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester County executives, to strategize on lobbying Washington for financial assistance.New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo Source: New York Times
Superstorm Hurricane Sandy: 2nd costliest on record in USA?
Whatever we end up calling "Sandy" after all is said and done, she will be expensive.
With this week's estimate that Sandy may cost New York alone up to 42-billion, Sandy's final damage costs are skyrocketing.
With extensive devastation in New Jersey and Connecticut, It's now reasonable to estimate total damage costs from Sandy could reach the $80-billion mark... at least.
That would make Sandy the 2nd costliest U.S. weather disaster on record according to NOAA figures, 2nd only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
WxUnderground's Jeff Masters recently put together this list of the costliest U.S. weather disasters, before New York's damage claims rose to $42-billion.
As you can see, if Sandy hits the $80-billion mark she will move into 2nd place, behind only Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
The top-ten list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is dominated by hurricanes and droughts. Three of the top five disasters are droughts. The numbers for Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 drought are preliminary numbers from media sources, and are not from NCDC.
Source: Jeff Masters with Paul Huttner edit
This week's NYT piece quotes New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo as he compares Sandy to Katrina.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, making a case for tens of billions of dollars in federal aid, declared on Monday that Hurricane Sandy had been "more impactful" than Hurricane Katrina, the deadly storm that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005.
Hurricane Sandy, which arrived in New Jersey and New York on Oct. 29, "affected many, many more people and places than Katrina," Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, told reporters at a news briefing. He said the comparison between the two hurricanes "puts this entire conversation, I believe, in focus."
Mr. Cuomo acknowledged that more people had been killed by Hurricane Katrina, but said that Hurricane Sandy had had a greater economic impact because of the dense population in the New York City area. He said Hurricane Sandy had destroyed or damaged more units of housing, affected more businesses and caused more customers to lose power.
Mr. Cuomo said he believed it would cost nearly $33 billion to pay for storm cleanup, including more than $15 billion in New York City, and an additional $9 billion to prepare for future storms. Aides to Mr. Bloomberg said he was expected to meet with House and Senate leaders on Wednesday.
Katrina vs. Sandy: Running the numbers
The Times also did a little truth squadding on the numbers for Katrina & Sandy.
What jumps out here is the amazing amount of damage Sandy....a "Category 1 post-tropical cyclone" did.
Because she hit the most populous area of the USA, Sandy knocked out power to more than twice as many homes as Category 4 Latrina....8 million vs. 3 million.
We won't know the total damage costs from Sandy for months, but it is starting to look like Sandy may move into the top few costliest USA weather disasters on record.